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National Hurricane Center proposes Storm Surge Warnings

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:46 PM GMT on March 10, 2009

At last week's 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, a number of notable news items surfaced regarding doings at the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Some of these are detailed on the NHC web site, and others I learned by talking to the people at the conference and via emails. Of note:

Saffir-Simpson Scale being redefined
NHC is considering removing any mention of storm surge from the familiar Category 1-2-3-4-5 Saffir-Simpson scale, starting this June. The current definition is primarily based upon wind speed, but storm surge flooding is included as well. The new definition will make the Saffir-Simpson scale exclusively keyed to wind speeds. This change will help pave the way for the proposed Storm Surge Warning, discussed next.

New Storm Surge Warning product proposed
The impact of Hurricane Ike on the Texas coast in 2008 underscored the inadequacy of the Saffir-Simpson scale to characterize storm surge threat. Ike was a strong Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, yet brought a storm surge characteristic of a strong Category 3 hurricane to the coast. Very high storm surges in excess of ten feet were recorded along portions the Louisiana coast, in regions that did not get hurricane force winds. The water level rose four feet above normal at Pascagoula, MS, some 170 miles to the east of the eastern edge of the Hurricane Warning, well before that warning was issued. To address these concerns, NHC is considering issuing a separate storm surge warning. This is great idea, but there are a number of major technical hurdles to leap before this product can be made operational. NHC director Bill Read indicated that official storm surge warnings are probably 3 - 5 years in the future. Among the concerns:

1) What level of water qualifies? Should it be different depending on the location?
2) Should a level of certainty be used (e.g., 40% chance of the surge reaching 5 feet?)
3) Would a "storm surge watch" be issued beforehand?
4) The storm surge can stay elevated for several days after a storm passes. How long would the surge warning stay in effect?


Figure 1. Example of how the proposed new Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning areas would have looked for Hurricane Katrina. NHC is also considering unifying the "Inland Hurricane Wind Warning" and Hurricane Warning (currently only issued for the coast) into one unified Hurricane Warning. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Expanded lead times for hurricane watches and warnings
Currently, NHC issues a Hurricane Watch 36 hours before the potential arrival of hurricane force winds at the coast, and a Hurricane Warning 24 hours in advance. As early as the 2010 season, it is proposed that these lead times be extended to 48 hours for a Watch and 36 hours for a Warning. This would give increased time for people to prepare, at the expense of warning more people unnecessarily. However, hurricane track forecasts have improved so markedly (50% in the past 20 years, with record accuracy again in 2008) that the number of people being over-warned would not significantly change compared to the 1990s.

Cone of Uncertainty reduced in size
For the Atlantic, official NHC forecasts for track in 2008 were the best ever, for both short range (12, 24, 48 hour) and longer range (3 - 5 days). As a result, NHC will be modestly reducing the size of the "cone of uncertainty" for 2009. Recall that the "cone of uncertainty" is set so that 2/3 of all track errors over the past five years will fall inside the cone. You're definitely not safe if you're in the cone, and 1/3 of the time, storms will deviate outside the cone!

Personnel changes
In response to recommendations made from a panel investigating morale problems at NHC in the wake of the July 2007 revolt by NHC employees against then-director Bill Proenza, a new branch chief position--head of the hurricane forecasters-- has been created and filled. The new branch chief of the Hurricane Specialists Unit is former senior hurricane forecaster James Franklin. He will now devote 80% of his time to administrative matters, and will be performing only one shift per week doing hurricane forecasting. Senior hurricane specialist Dr. Rick Knabb is gone, he left last year to head the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. NHC has hired Dr. Michael Brennan, who came on board during the tail end of the 2008 season, was hired to fill this vacancy. NHC will be short one hurricane forecaster during the 2009 season, as senior hurricane forecaster Stacy Stewart has been called up for military reserve duty.

I'll have a new post Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Lord knows a voice,many actually have been screaming for a SS update.

Now, with the new Storm Surge info.
Its a start.
questions 1-4 are valid technical issues, but 3 to 5 years seems like a long time to work out those details...

But we've gone this long with the SS scale, I suppose it's important to get it right even if takes a little longer.

thanks Doc.
Institute improves hurricane tracking


Elizabeth Battise
Issue date: 3/10/09 Section: News


At Mississippi State University, technology is proving to hold the key to a better understanding of hurricane development.

An effort led by MSU, the Northern Gulf Institute is working on new technology that can be used to better understand the development and movement of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.

The technology includes high-tech weather balloons and unmanned hurricane reconnaissance aircraft.

NGI, which is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is a cooperative institute whose partners include MSU, University of Southern Mississippi, Louisiana State University, Florida State University and the Dauphin Island Sea Lab.



3 -5 years out for SS warnings ? I would think we have enough data to be able to logically determine the criteria now.

My take

#1 -- anything over the highest yearly tide. We know how the surge plays in differing water depths and coastline configurations.

#2 Historic probablility should be able to deliver a fairly accurate understanding/ forecast.

#3 Absolutely, why would we not do this.

4# Until its not a threat anyloger. Dissipation or distance factor.

Not sure why it would take so long to make this happen. That just does not make sense. If it saved one life, it would certainly be worth it. I see it just like the other warning systems we have in place. We continuously improve them accordingly. You have to start somewhere, why not now? I must be missing something. There must be a legal factor involved. Just my take.
Its technical issues,not legal one's


.."This is great idea, but there are a number of major technical hurdles to leap before this product can be made operational"....

..NHC director Bill Read indicated that official storm surge warnings are probably 3 - 5 years in the future"....
Quoting Patrap:
Its technical issues,not legal one's


.."This is great idea, but there are a number of major technical hurdles to leap before this product can be made operational"....

..NHC director Bill Read indicated that official storm surge warnings are probably 3 - 5 years in the future"....


We already have the local weather folks providing a form of warning now. I would bet they could do this in short order with the data they have in house already. What technical issue stands in the way that is an unknown?
Ask the NHC..they have a comment section,or e-mail.
If you click on image credit: National Hurricane Center under the graphic in Jeff's post you can read the whitepaper written by Franklin.
Great ideas, but it does seem an unnecessarily long time to put it all together.

Will the Safir-Simpson change wait until the storm surge project comes online?
These are interesting posts---I've thought for a while that pressure should be used as the determining factor in assigning a strength category. Ike was 950 mb at landfall, by far the deepest Category 2 to make landfall in the USA. Ike's spread out windfield supported the high tides that were so destructive. But Ike's damage was a lot more consistent with it's 950 mb pressure, in the strong half of Cat 3, than with its maximum surface wind velocity.
11. JRRP
1098 ?????????
What technical issues?

Look at how messy that map is! IMO If its the map thats the technical issue then they should have one map for track/forecast positions and another map for advisories.

But I do like the idea a lot. ;D
Well the general public wants to see everything on one map. And weather maps are messy--think of all the different advisories going on for the Dakota blizzard right now.

The general public doesn't want to have to look at more than one map. They want it all in one place.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well the general public wants to see everything on one map. And weather maps are messy--think of all the different advisories going on for the Dakota blizzard right now.

The general public doesn't want to have to look at more than one map. They want it all in one place.


Gotcha
Quoting JRRP:
1098 ?????????


Do I smell a glitch?
Good afternoon...
Looks like Franklin got a big promotion. If I am not mistaken, he was the primary writer of the daily tropical discussion. His white paper, is basically an interview. Nothing of any significance. The SS item however, remains unanswered. Think of how many boroadcasts alreay project SS to the general public.
Thanks, Dr. M.

Guys, these things will be implemented and extensively tested before they make it an experimental product for one or two years and then go operational with it. We cannot have a product like this be inconsistent from one year to the next (such as if improvements are made) and we cannot have it give gross false alarms. Public confidence, when making potentially life or death decisions, is at stake and the utmost caution must be used.

Can you imagine if a SS warning were issued (on the side of caution) for [fill in coastal city here] for a cat 2 and marginal conditions warranting the warning, but no surge happens? What will be the public perception for the next SS warning?
Ah, hmm. Something tells me it's time to retire the broad "Hurricane Warning" and replace it with "Hurricane Wind Warning" anyways.

The National Weather Service has tended to issue warnings for local effects, not events. This is why we have Tornado Warnings, Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings, not "Storm Warnings" (although those are used at sea!)

That said - they also simplified their winter watch/warning structure. We no longer have the following products: Snow Advisory, Heavy Snow Warning, Blowing Snow Advisory, Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory. They're all covered under "Winter Weather Advisory" and "Winter Storm Warning", and the public is better off for that.

With that said, the impacts of winter storms are similar across all those products. The impacts of hurricanes, as we've seen, differ for each hurricane.
19

Ummmm, kinda like the track and intesitiy forecasting.
Quoting Ossqss:
Looks like Franklin got a big promotion. If I am not mistaken, he was the primary writer of the daily tropical discussion. His white paper, is basically an interview. Nothing of any significance. The SS item however, remains unanswered. Think of how many boroadcasts alreay project SS to the general public.


But most of those are erring on the side of caution and admit it, and they are local and familiar with local effects. The NHC is expected to do better than that and come up with a consistent product for the entire US coast. The local coastline, bathymetry, land elevation, track angle, etc. have huge impacts and they must be accounted for wherever SS may happen.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Thanks, Dr. M.

Guys, these things will be implemented and extensively tested before they make it an experimental product for one or two years and then go operational with it. We cannot have a product like this be inconsistent from one year to the next (such as if improvements are made) and we cannot have it give gross false alarms. Public confidence, when making potentially life or death decisions, are at stake and the utmost caution must be used.

Can you imagine if a SS warning were issued (on the side of caution) for [fill in coastal city here] for a cat 2 and marginal conditions warranting the warning, but no surge happens? What will be the public perception for the next SS warning?
good point...
Storm geeks
The link at the top of Jeff's post, 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference takes you to a page of links for the presentations at last weeks conference. Hours and hours of good stuff there.
25. JRRP
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Do I smell a glitch?

i think so
The same thing that happens when a hurricane unexpectedly changes course. Warnings can change because forecasting isn't perfect. Frances in 2004 had a 350 mile error 3 days before landfall. Jeanne the same year was very difficult to figure out. Fay was forecast to move far enough out into the Gulf Stream to become a hurricane again and threaten Georgia. So an error in a storm surge forecast would be nothing new. Errors happen all the time.
Thanks Dr. Masters for keeping us update on the proposed changes.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The same thing that happens when a hurricane unexpectedly changes course. Warnings can change because forecasting isn't perfect. Frances in 2004 had a 350 mile error 3 days before landfall. Jeanne the same year was very difficult to figure out. Fay was forecast to move far enough out into the Gulf Stream to become a hurricane again and threaten Georgia. So an error in a storm surge forecast would be nothing new. Errors happen all the time.


But if you could spend a few seasons testing it and improving it before you share it, wouldn't you want to do that rather than have a potential gaffe that undermines the public's confidence in such an important product? Some in here would rather quickly cry foul for the slightest misstep and call for someone's head on a platter.
Nothing wrong with spending a few years testing a new warning product.


I still think that pressure and not wind speed should be the determinant of hurricane categories.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Nothing wrong with spending a few years testing a new warning product.


I still think that pressure and not wind speed should be the determinant of hurricane categories.


Why, if I may ask.

I personally do not think it matters, as long as consistency is maintained. I can say that surface wind is more reliably measured at more locations during a hurricane at sea. QuikScat, SFMR, and others give us a lot of wind information at the surface. Our only central pressure is usually estimated through calculations relating flight-level pressures to surface pressure.
Pressure is a better predictor of the impact a hurricane will have than the maximum wind. Ike had Cat 2 type winds, but a strong Cat 3 pressure, and Ike caused upper Cat 3 damage.
A hurricane with a deep pressure and large spread out windfield will also have a high integrated kinetic energy reading, which is a measure of the power of the storm. The integrated kinetic energy reading would also be a better predictor of damage than max wind velocity.
But yes I have thought the minimum pressure is the single most important figure in a hurricane. For a long time.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Pressure is a better predictor of the impact a hurricane will have than the maximum wind. Ike had Cat 2 type winds, but a strong Cat 3 pressure, and Ike caused upper Cat 3 damage.


Pressure is the leading indicator of strength considering the windup time on the winds. Good arguments on boths sides however. I still think we need more bouys
I like the idea of a seperate storm surge warning. I also like the idea of inland hurricane warnings as well. I have two reasons for this Rita and Ike. I also like the idea Stsimons brought up of using pressure as well as wind speed to determine strength. Both Rita and Ike were enourmously destructive storms for "just being a 2" and "just being a 3." The surge from Ike flooded most of my county. But officially we are not on the coast.And yet people were still being pulled out of the attics of their flooded homes. I'm not too sure the wisdom of narrowing that cone of uncertainty. With Ike, had they narrowed the cone we would have never thought we were in danger. As it was we were too late getting the warning for our area. Our local officials called an evacuation before the NHC warning reached us. My hats off to our local officials. they did it on their own. All of the state resources were in south Texas.But they pulled in school buses and whatever they could to start moving people. And even then it was too late for some to get out. Interesting stuff though. Food for thought. Thanks Doc.
Thanks Dr. Masters.

I love the idea about altering the Saffar scale but why would it take so long to do the storm surge is beyond me. Personally I think its common sense. Every storm is different. Different winds, directions, sizes, pressure, etc...but thing again the general public is not so bright.
Wind speed alone doesn’t predict hurricanes’ power

By AMY WOLD
Advocate staff writer
Published: Feb 28, 2009

LAFAYETTE — The potential damage and danger of a hurricane can’t be defined by a single number as is sometimes done with the Saffir-Simpson category scale, warns The Weather Channel’s tropical program manager Steve Lyons.

“Not all hurricanes of the same category are the same,” he said Friday during a U.S. Department of Commerce 2009 Gulf Coast Marine Conference in Lafayette.

The Saffir-Simpson scale for measuring hurricanes — by which a storm is labeled as Category 1-5 — only measures wind speed, he said. That can be very misleading to the public since wind speed is only one part of the equation when it comes to how destructive a hurricane can be, he said.
On the economic weather front, expect clear sailing upwards as they are now going to re-instate the uptick rule, finally. We could have probably used more bouys there also. §
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Pressure is a better predictor of the impact a hurricane will have than the maximum wind. Ike had Cat 2 type winds, but a strong Cat 3 pressure, and Ike caused upper Cat 3 damage.


Now, categories by IKE would be good. This would have communicated Ike's potential better.
Storm surge prediction would save lives, it is a necessary addition to any Hurricane watches or warnings. A Volcano, Asama in Japan is in active eruption now. Japanese volcano Mount Asama erupts | World news | guardian.co.uk
Feb 2, 2009 ... Today's eruption coincided with increased volcanic activity elsewhere in the ... Report errors or inaccuracies: userhelp@guardian.co.uk ...
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/feb/02/mount-asama-volcano-erupts-japan - 83k -
Well, I see some good and some not-so-good stuff here. Lets hope it does more good than bad. Starting to restock for the season, and the economy.
Extreme drought here in Fl.
Crawfish season starting slowly


SHREVEPORT, La. -- If you have a hankering for mudbugs you'll have to spend more to satisfy it.


Crawfish prices are high and production is about half of what it was a year ago.

According to the LSU AgCenter, hurricanes Gustav and Ike, and a drought last year, played a part.

Prices for boiled crawfish ranged from $4.99 to $5.99 a pound last week in the Shreveport-Bossier City area.

Mark Shirley of the AgCenter says hurricane debris such as leaves and grass remained in some flooded ponds for weeks following Hurricane Gustav, sucking up the oxygen in the water and choking crawfish.

In southwestern Louisiana, crawfish farmers were hit by a drought.

In Vermilion and lower Iberia parishes, Ike's storm surge sent salt water into as much as 4,000 acres of crawfish ponds.


Quoting futuremet:
Extreme drought here in Fl.


Yep you are right on the money.
Quoting futuremet:
Extreme drought here in Fl.


That has to be miserable,
and im crying over a moderate drought.
Anyone going down to Cape Kennedy tomorrow for the Space Shuttle launch? I am! Should be exciting.
Here is how bad it actually is
Link
Quoting hahaguy:
Here is how bad it actually is
Link


Just like last year sadly. Maybe a Slow moving Tropical Storm will help it some (or a lot, in Fay's case)
Revising the scale...all well and good.
Surge warnings...yes...about time!

But the real problem I see is in the willingness of local government to take risks rather than "scare our people" or incur economic cost. Also the seeming nonchalance of many in the media...including forecasters who should know better.

It was painfully obvious well in advance that Katrina was going pretty darn close to NOLA, a very high risk area, even in a near miss...as we are all now aware.

In Ike, we all sat here looking at the data and images and freaking over the size of the wind field and the tide levels all along the gulf coast. We KNEW there was gonna be a lot of surge over a broad area so how could the people in charge not have known and taken it seriously.

You can use whatever maps and charts and scales you want...but until officials are willing to make the call and until that information can be adequately conveyed to the public...well, nothing changes.

Just my opinion.
Here is how bad it is accross the Gulf States.









50. I couldnt agree more about the media and local officials.Like I said our local officials called an evacuation. But that was only three counties that did not include Chambers county which was devestated by Ike, nor Galveston County where Galveston and the Bolivar Peninsula are. Those officials waited way too late. As we all know. It was not an easy call for our local officials to make because not two weeks earlier they had called an evacuation for Gustav, Which missed us. And the media was a joke. Or worse. Our local met, talking about Ike, and I quote, "It will not come into the gulf!!" Oh if only those were his famous last words.When it became obvious that Ike was headed in our direction he said.."Don't panic! You can panic when I tell you to panic! Its not going to be a problem for us." Only he screamed that.Then to top it all off,when an evacuation was called,and people were already being rescued by helicopters he tells everyone that he wouldnt put his family through an evacuation. It would be safer to stay.Unfortunately some did stay. I wish that more people were better informed. I just don't know how that can be brought about.
52. homelesswanderer
I hear you. In the real world you cannot depend on local officials to make your decisions for you. You have to keep yourself informed and help to inform others. We do that. That's why we are all here, unfortunately many people do not have the capability (computers etc.) that we do, or know how to find or use the information that is available. People who make stupid statements like the quotes you mentioned need to be held accoutable somehow. Same with officials who don't heed the warnings. I'm pretty impressed with the way NHC and NWS handled things last year. I've said before how proud I was of the NWS person who essentially said "Get out or Die"
People need to not live in fear of losing their jobs for raising a red flag when warranted.
Quoting RobDaHood:
52. homelesswanderer
I hear you. In the real world you cannot depend on local officials to make your decisions for you. You have to keep yourself informed and help to inform others. We do that. That's why we are all here, unfortunately many people do not have the capability (computers etc.) that we do, or know how to find or use the information that is available. People who make stupid statements like the quotes you mentioned need to be held accoutable somehow. Same with officials who don't heed the warnings. I'm pretty impressed with the way NHC and NWS handled things last year. I've said before how proud I was of the NWS person who essentially said "Get out or Die"
People need to not live in fear of losing their jobs for raising a red flag when warranted.



I agree sometimes you need to scary people to get your point across and to get people to evacuate the danger area.
I agree Rob that he shouldve been held accountable but all he said afterwards was that you learn something new every day. Well at least maybe some who used to listen to him won't again. And I too think it takes courage to make that call to evacuate or else. Our local officials went from zero to hero in a hurry after the call on Ike. LOL. But I'd rather err on the side of caution.We've had 5 evacs I can think of and only 2 hits. Its not an easy call.And it shouldnt put jobs in jeopardy.
About this site, I showed everybody I could the surge maps from here. I said here is where the surge will go - here is your house. And They left. Not to mention the winds. But the visual of the surge map really got our attention.Maybe,if ever they are warranted again, the locals will show the maps.
54. Speaking of scaring people, I was impressed when they evacuated the entire Louisiana coastline before Gustav. I know how awful the Rita evac was. I was in it for 19 hours. But it was so much better than the alternative. I just wish we didnt have to learn our lessons at such a cost.
Quoting hahaguy:



I agree sometimes you need to scary people to get your point across and to get people to evacuate the danger area.


I can only agree so far with that statment. What Ray Nagin did on 8/30/08 was exagerate, send false information out, and put an endless pit at the bottom of a lot of peoples stomachs including mine.

Here is a minor example of what he said.

Best to leave when advised and be inconvenieced for a few days,

..then weep a lifetime for not.
i like this new idea
Thanks Doc for the update, and I too like this idea of the storm surge predictions. You guys have been great, I have learned a LOT from you guys about predicting where these storms will go, and how hard it is to do it, one thing it has taught me is that my local weathermen/women have no CLUE how to actually read a weather map, sometimes I watch our local news and they are showing a map and "reading" it to tell us what our forcast will be, and in the minute or so that it is on the screen I end up muting the TV and telling my roommates what wil REALLY happen. You would think by now that they would acutally believe me. Mind you, keep in mind the "weather maps" they read are acutally only sat images of the cloud cover but I have learned to see the lows and highs inbetween the clouds thanks to you guys.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I can only agree so far with that statment. What Ray Nagin did on 8/30/08 was exagerate, send false information out, and put an endless pit at the bottom of a lot of peoples stomachs including mine.

Here is a minor example of what he said.



A LOT better than what he did in 2005.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


A LOT better than what he did in 2005.


In 2005 all he did was sit on his but and watch and when the power went out he left and went to his house in Texas. Some Mayor he is.
COPENHAGEN (AFP) – Months before make-or-break climate negotiations, a conclave of scientists warned Tuesday that the impact of global warming was accelerating beyond a forecast made by UN experts two years ago.

Sea levels this century may rise several times higher than predictions made in 2007 that form the scientific foundation for policymakers today, the meeting heard.

In March 2007, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global warming, if unchecked, would lead to a devastating amalgam of floods, drought, disease and extreme weather by the century end.

The world's oceans would creep up 18 to 59 centimetres (7 to 23 inches), enough to wipe out several small island nations, and wreak havoc for tens of millions living in low-lying deltas in east Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Africa.

But a new study, presented at the Copenhagen meeting on Tuesday, factored in likely water runoff from disintegrating glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, and found the rise could be much higher.

The IPCC estimate had been based largely on the expansion of oceans from higher temperatures, rather than meltwater and the impact of glaciers tumbling into the sea.

Using the new model, "we get a range of sea level rise by 2100 between 75 and 190 centimetres when we apply the IPCC's temperature scenarios for the future," said climate expert Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Even if the world manages to dramatically cut the emission of greenhouse gases driving global warming, the "best estimate" is about one metre (3.25 feet), he said.

"A few years ago, those of us who talked about the impact of the ice sheets were seen as extremists. Today it is recognized as the central issue," said glaciologist Eric Rignot of the University of California at Irvine.

"The world has very little time," IPCC chief Rajendra Pachauri told the meeting after the new findings were presented.

Participants also spoke out about fears that greenhouse gases -- mainly emissions from oil, gas and coal -- could trigger tipping points that would be nearly impossible to reverse.

The shrinking of the Arctic ice cap, and the release of billions of tonnes of greenhouse gases trapped in melting permafrost are two such "positive feedbacks" that could become both cause and consequence of global warming.

"We need to look at what is a 'reasonable worst case' in the lifetime of people alive today," said John Ashton, Britain's top climate negotiator, noting even rich nations had yet to take such scenarios seriously.

"A sea level rise of one or two meters would not just be damaging for China, it would be an absolute catastrophe. And what is catastrophic for China is catastrophic for the world," he said.

Up to 600 million people living close to coast lines in poor and rich countries alike could be affected, said Konrad Steffen, head of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences in Boulder, Colorado.

"They will have to move -- it would change the whole structure of populations, and we know had badly we deal with migration," he told AFP.

Among the worst hit countries will be Bangladesh, which would lose some 17 percent of its landmass, displacing nearly 15 million people.

"These startling new predictions on sea levels rise spell disaster for millions of the world's poorest people," said Rob Bailey of Oxfam. "This must be a wakeup call for rich countries are not doing anywhere near enough to prevent these cataclysmic predictions becoming a reality."

More than 2,000 researchers from 80 countries responded to the open invitation to present their findings, which were then vetted by a panel of climate experts, many of them top figures in the IPCC.

"I and a lot of scientists see this meeting as an opportunity to update the science that has come out since the last IPCC report," said William Howard, a researcher from the University of Tasmania in Hobart, Australia.

"The huge response from scientists comes from a sense of urgency, but also a sense of frustration," said Katherine Richardson, head of the Danish government's Commission on Climate Change Policy.

Richardson said the 2007 IPCC report, called the Fourth Assessment Report, was an invaluable document but it would be years out of date when negotiators convene in Copenhagen in December to hammer out a global climate treaty.
81 days till hurricane season
Quoting Tazmanian:
COPENHAGEN (AFP) – Months before make-or-break climate negotiations, a conclave of scientists warned Tuesday that the impact of global warming was accelerating beyond a forecast made by UN experts two years ago.

Sea levels this century may rise several times higher than predictions made in 2007 that form the scientific foundation for policymakers today, the meeting heard.

In March 2007, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global warming, if unchecked, would lead to a devastating amalgam of floods, drought, disease and extreme weather by the century end.

The world's oceans would creep up 18 to 59 centimetres (7 to 23 inches), enough to wipe out several small island nations, and wreak havoc for tens of millions living in low-lying deltas in east Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Africa.

But a new study, presented at the Copenhagen meeting on Tuesday, factored in likely water runoff from disintegrating glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, and found the rise could be much higher.

The IPCC estimate had been based largely on the expansion of oceans from higher temperatures, rather than meltwater and the impact of glaciers tumbling into the sea.

Using the new model, "we get a range of sea level rise by 2100 between 75 and 190 centimetres when we apply the IPCC's temperature scenarios for the future," said climate expert Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Even if the world manages to dramatically cut the emission of greenhouse gases driving global warming, the "best estimate" is about one metre (3.25 feet), he said.

"A few years ago, those of us who talked about the impact of the ice sheets were seen as extremists. Today it is recognized as the central issue," said glaciologist Eric Rignot of the University of California at Irvine.

"The world has very little time," IPCC chief Rajendra Pachauri told the meeting after the new findings were presented.

Participants also spoke out about fears that greenhouse gases -- mainly emissions from oil, gas and coal -- could trigger tipping points that would be nearly impossible to reverse.

The shrinking of the Arctic ice cap, and the release of billions of tonnes of greenhouse gases trapped in melting permafrost are two such "positive feedbacks" that could become both cause and consequence of global warming.

"We need to look at what is a 'reasonable worst case' in the lifetime of people alive today," said John Ashton, Britain's top climate negotiator, noting even rich nations had yet to take such scenarios seriously.

"A sea level rise of one or two meters would not just be damaging for China, it would be an absolute catastrophe. And what is catastrophic for China is catastrophic for the world," he said.

Up to 600 million people living close to coast lines in poor and rich countries alike could be affected, said Konrad Steffen, head of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences in Boulder, Colorado.

"They will have to move -- it would change the whole structure of populations, and we know had badly we deal with migration," he told AFP.

Among the worst hit countries will be Bangladesh, which would lose some 17 percent of its landmass, displacing nearly 15 million people.

"These startling new predictions on sea levels rise spell disaster for millions of the world's poorest people," said Rob Bailey of Oxfam. "This must be a wakeup call for rich countries are not doing anywhere near enough to prevent these cataclysmic predictions becoming a reality."

More than 2,000 researchers from 80 countries responded to the open invitation to present their findings, which were then vetted by a panel of climate experts, many of them top figures in the IPCC.

"I and a lot of scientists see this meeting as an opportunity to update the science that has come out since the last IPCC report," said William Howard, a researcher from the University of Tasmania in Hobart, Australia.

"The huge response from scientists comes from a sense of urgency, but also a sense of frustration," said Katherine Richardson, head of the Danish government's Commission on Climate Change Policy.

Richardson said the 2007 IPCC report, called the Fourth Assessment Report, was an invaluable document but it would be years out of date when negotiators convene in Copenhagen in December to hammer out a global climate treaty.


Wow... If only people would wake up sooner... -_-
Add South Carolina to the list of states with drought conditions.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Update
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH (CAT 2)
10:50 AM EST March 11 2009
============================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category TWO [975 hPa] located at 24.3S 155.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
------------------
20 NM in northeast quadrant
40 NM in southeast quadrant
40 NM in southwest quadrant
30 NM in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
--------------
50 NM in northeast quadrant
100 NM in southeast quadrant
100 NM in southwest quadrant
70 NM in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 23.6S 154.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 22.7S 152.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Remarks
Position good on VIS imagery. Recent NW movement as low level centre is influenced by the ridge to the south. FT based on MET is 3.5 with W1.5 trend over 24 hours with high vertical shear. CI held at 4.0.

T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-F
9:00 AM FST March 11 2009
===========================

Special Bulletin for Southern Cook Island

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (1005 hPa) located at 20.3S 157.8W is reported as moving southwest slowly. Position FAIR based on GOES IR/VIS imagery with animation, latest Quikscat, and Microwave Pass. Expect 10 minute sustained winds of 30-40 knots within 60 to 150 NM of the center in the sector from tnorth through east to southeast.

Tropical Depression ELEVEN lies embedded in an active surface trough low level circulation center is weakly defined at this stage with surface pressures over the Southern Cook Island above 1005 hPa. However, the mid upper cyclonic circulation is well developed with enhanced outflow to the north and east of the system. The system lies under a low shear environment and CIMSS indicates 11F is moving into an area of decreasing shear.

Dvorak analysis yields 0.35 wrap on a poorly defined spiral.

DT=MET=2.0 and PT=1.5 FT based on PT,

Thus T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.

A developing ridge of high pressure to the southeast of 11F is enhancing the pressure gradient between 11F and itself. Meanwhile, an upper trough is approaching the system from the west. Sea surface temperatures is around 28C. 11F is being steered southwest by a mid level ridge to the east and expected to curve southwards. Global models agree on a southerly track with little intensification. Furthermore, cyclone phase evolution suggests that 11F is not entirely tropical.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
The timing of a storms landfall relative to the tides, introduces a new kind of error with surge prediction.

If "Certain Death" doesn't get their attention, I don't think one more map or scale is going to do it.






Thanks, Dr Masters, for posting the new proposals. It seems intuitive to those familiar with the problems of having storm surge potential encased within the Saffir-Simpson scale that they need to be decoupled, but the reality remains that much of the "listening audience" of the main media make life and death decisions based on a single number. Whatever can be done to provide the greatest amount of information with the fewest bits/bytes of data is a good thing.
hmmmmm ....

but the reality remains that much of the "listening audience" of the main media make life and death decisions based on a single number.


Kind of a bold statement. People aren't influenced by what their coworkers and neighbors are doing? What about national media coverage versus the local media? Recent experience with storms? Seems like there could be a lot of factors playing into decisions to stay or go.

I think the death toll from Ike was fairly low considering the size of the storm surge. It would have been higher probably if it had not turned north just before landfall, but I do not see the need to look for villains in the outcome.

Regarding the storm surge warnings, a storm surge in the middle of 100 knot winds is a whole different proposition when compared to a surge under milder conditions. The word "surge" is emotionally charged what with all the publicity over the years. There would have to be a renaming of the phenomena or re-education of the public to introduce storm surge forecasts outside the area of a hurricane or tropical storm warning. How about coastal flood warnings? I think we already have those. Never heard of a coastal flood watch, though.

I'll let the Guerra Family tell ya in their own words about staying when Warned not,..

Video taken by Guerra Family after Hurricane Katrina. Chalmette, LA.



If you thought there was a chance that someone could get hurt if you did not say anything, what would you do? NHC

Why wait? Make it so on the SS ( storm surge ) forecast. It is not much different than the track and intesity forecasts we currently deal with, is it?

It would simply wrap around the other, right?

Quoting KoritheMan:


Wow... If only people would wake up sooner... -_-
its already too late no fate but that which we make for ourselves
WE NEED RAIN the end
Have you seen this one Patrap?

Note the time and the water rise...
This was taken in St. Bernard Parish while hurricane Katrina was roaring ashore by the Vaccarella Family.



Quoting G35Wayne:
WE NEED RAIN the end
Start dancin, I have been doing the rain dance for months. SWFL, red zone rain dance to be more accurate. \\

CUL8R ª¿ª §
I don't care what the NHC says,
Hurricane Katrina was a Catagory 4 at landfall.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-F
12:00 PM FST March 11 2009
===========================

Special Tropical Cyclone Bulletin - Southern Cook Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 20.8S 158.0W is reported as moving south-southwest at 5 knots. Maximum sustianed winds 60-150 NM of the center in the sector from northwest through east to south is 30 to 35 knots. Position FAIR based on GOES Infrared/visible imagery with animation and latest peripheral observations.

11F lies embedded in an active surface trough. The low level circulation center is exposed and lies to the west of deep convection. Recent satellite imagery shows convective banding trying to wrap around the center. The mid upper cyclonic circulation is well developed with enhanced outflow to the north and east but restricted elsewhere. CIMSS indicates the system lies under 20-25 knot wind shear and moves it into decreasing shear. Sea surface temperatures remains around 28C. Dvorak analysis yields 0.35 wrap.

DT=MET-2.0 FT based on MET.

Yielding T2.0/2.0/D0.5/ 24 HRS

An intensifying ridge of high pressure to the southeast of 11F is enhancing the pressure gradient betwen both these systems. Meanwhile, an upper trough is approaching the system from the southwest. 11F is being steered southwest by a mid level ridge to the east and is expected to curve southwards. Global models agree on a southerly track with little intensification. On this forecast track, the system is expected to move into cooler sea surface temperature and increasing shear.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
I JUST COMPLETED MY WEB SITE THAT MIRRORS MY WEATHER UNDERGROUND BLOG WITH A LITTLE MORE STUFF.....BELOW ARE THE FOLLOWING HEADERS.

Hurricane Supply Store
Weather Graphics and Maps
Forecast and Blog
Boat, Tide, and Beach
SEISMIC AND TSUNAMI
Weather Links
Calendar
Videos

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/index.htm
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-F
18:00 PM FST March 11 2009
===========================

Special Tropical Cyclone Bulletin - Southern Cook Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 21.3S 158.4W is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots. Maximum 10 minute sustianed winds 30-150 NM of the center in eastern semi-circle is 30 to 35 knots, possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 6-12 hours. Position POOR based on Multispectral/Infrared imagery with animation, latest peripheral surface observation, recent Quikscat, and Microwave Passes.

Organization has improved in the last 24 hours, with convective bands wrapping closely around the center. The mid upper circulation is well developed with enhanced outflow to the north and south. The low level circulation center appears to be becoming better defined but surface pressure observation over the Southern Cook Islands are not showing significant pressure drops. CIMSS indicates the system will remain in a weakly sheared environment and warm sea surface temperatures (around 28C) along the forecast track, development is expected to continue.

Dvorak analysis based on a 0.45 wrap on LOG10 Spiral resulting in DT=MET=PT=25 FT based on DT. Yielding

T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

An intensifying ridge of high pressure to the southeast of 11F is enhancing the pressure gradient to th eeast of the low level circulation center. AN upper trough is approaching the system from the southwest. 11F is being steered southwest by a mid level ridge to the east and is expected to curve southward in the next 24 hours. Global models agree on a southerly track with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS HIGH
There has been talk about storm surge here also. We don't have the greatest flooding defences, especially on the East Coast.

Link
Good Morning Cot. Friend across the sea! I remember the last serious flooding you had in England -- it nearly took the leather tanning business out. Must have happened in a Leather District? All I know is that we could not get any quality leather (the best is from England) to repair saddles and for custom made bridles, reins etc. I suppose that is still an existing problem
Most people don't realize how vulnerable we are to storm surge flooding on the West coast of FL cause we haven't had a large, powerful hurricane in a long time. Powerful, yes (Charley), but not large. But even during Frances, a strong tropical storm exiting near Tampa, not making landfall.. the Peace River in Punta Gorda overflowed it's banks, as well as tampa bay onto bayshore, and I mean at least 3 ft of water. I'm just afraid that it's going to take one of those hurricanes making landfall somewhere along the West coast for most people to realize just how vulnerable we are to storm surge.
If coastal residents would heed the current watch/warning system, and evacute when ordered to by local authorities after a warning is issued, then we can accomplish the mission which is a save lives from a huge storm surge....The "die hards" who refuse to listen to evacuation orders, and decide to remain behind, will not be deterred by an extra 24 hours warning if they have made up their minds to ride out a storm (and place first responders at great risk once rescue efforts commence)........
When Ike made his journey to Galveston , he brought with him a storm surge. Several days before he landed, the bayous, intrcoastal, gulf shoreline, drainage ditches were all swollen and several feet higher then normal....... I was amazed that here in Sarasota --so far from Ike --we would see evidence of his pending arrival.... it was sobering, unnerving and a real wake-up call as to the extent surge can affect us all
As a hurricane public educator, I have some reservations about changing the SS scale and expanding the watch/warning times.

First of all, I doubt many citizens have a full grasp of the SS scale right now. "I'm only gonna move if there's a category 4 or higher..." We have our hands full trying to convince the public that they need to understand that any category storm can do damage and needs to be seen as a serious threat.

Now, the NHC will be adding a new advisory that will have to be communicated to residents. Where does it end? Will we one day have to prepare citizens for something like a Category 2-D-3 storm, with a figure for wind speed, a figure for storm surge and another for rain potential?

Sure, this will help meteorologists in their forecasting, but it's bound to confuse the heck out of residents.

The other concern is with increasing the time for watch/warning windows. Yes, the forecast track has gotten much better since 1990. However, if this is the case, then why do we want to increase the watch/warning times to include just as many people who won't be hit in the 1990 forecasts? I can see hotels and other beachfront property owners suing like crazy because of more false alarms than with the times at 36/24 hrs.

In my humble opinion, I would rather have increased confidence in the warning areas than increased time.

Also, everyone up to Bill Read will tell you that the forecast intensity is still well below what it should be. So, now we will be increasing w/w times, there is even less certainty about what category the storm will come ashore as. It might be a cat 1 now, but in 36 hours be a cat 4. Do we order cat 1 evacuation orders when the warning goes out? I'd say leave less time for Emergency Managers to make a more accurate assessment.

Also, based on our behavioral studies, there may be times when the NHC puts us under a warning, and it will be too early to order an evacuation. The media will scream bloody murder if we aren't evacuating people immediately after the warning - but, it won't be necessary to start that early for - say - a category one storm...

Finally, it's been explained to me that this change has been requested by some EM offices which needed the extra warning time. However, here on Florida's west coast, we heard about it quite by accident from the local NWS MIC at a meeting of our regional planning council. If this decision to increase the W/W times has been arrived at through careful coordination with EM office, why didn't anyone in Florida's counties know about it? I mean, we've taken twice the number of hits of any other state...

This is kinda like the case of the Octomom - just because you can increase watch and warning times, should you?
TampaTom,..I think maybe you underestimate the Minds of the American People.
If we can understand a Multi-Colored Threat level from DHS.

I believe the avg Plumber can handle the SS scale.

And number of Hits dont mean squat.

The discussion around the SS scale and Surge is a easy one to digest.

Because with a lil research,you'll find the SS is designed for Wind Loading on Structures,and offers little as far as Surge Potential is concerned.

Tampa..being an inland Bay..is one of the most Surge Prone areas along the GOM,as you well know.

And I am a firm believer that Hurricane Education and ,our ability to educate the Public on these issues.,.Should be regularly taught in our Public and Private Schools nationwide.
PORTLIGHT.ORG - CHECK IT OUT - Hurricane Relief

Destin Dog Walk April 26th - Check SUGARSAND,PORTLIGHT OR CODE1 Blog for details

ALSO - any folks from Houston on the blog today--check out SMMCDAVID's blog for information regarding the Portlight.org walk there. Hurricane season approaches -- part of being prepared is supporting this WU grassroots organization that may be offering YOU hurricane aid this season.
FINAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11.00 PM EST on Wednesday the 11th of March 2009

At 10 pm EST Wednesday, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Hamish with central pressure 998 hPa
was centred near latitude 22.4 south longitude 154.8 east, which is about 295 km
north northeast of Sandy Cape.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish has weakened through today and this evening, and is now
below tropical cyclone strength. The low level remnant of the cyclone is
currently moving to the north and is expected to curve onto a northwest track
over the next 48 hours, remaining parallel to the Queensland coast, and continue
to gradually weaken.

A large high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea in combination with
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Hamish is producing strong to gale force winds and large
waves about the southeast Queensland and Capricornia coasts. A separate Severe
Weather Warning remains current between Yeppoon and Coolangatta for these
conditions. Refer to this warning for more detail.

No further Information Bulletins will be issued unless the system shows signs of
regeneration.
Hey, Pap, I hear you, but I think you might be overestimating...

Last year, I delivered 98 hurricane ed talks to 12,000 folks, and the percentage of people who have no clue of SS intensity is mind-boggling. They throw the numbers around like they know, but a lot of the people I speak to tell me they will move when it gets to a cat 4... having no concept about what a cat 1 could do in Tampa Bay.

I think the number of hurricane false alarms is also a huge concern. We have plenty of people who evacuated from Charley to Orlando only to ride it out there. "I'm never going to evacuate because you always get it wrong." I'd like to know that the probability of getting hurricane force winds is now 1 in 3 in 36 hours than 1 in 4 in 48... I can tell our residents they can have a higher expectation of getting the actual winds.

I'm well aware of the SS scale addressing the wind-load on structures. I interviewed both Saffir and Dr. Simpson back in 2006 for an article on the topic. However, by tying an 'expected' surge value to the storm, people will have a 'Cliff's Notes' version of what to expect and can react accordingly.

Regarding the DHS levels - there are five of them and everyone knows that the bullets are flying when we get to red... There's not a number of nuances in the scale to account for a particular kind of terrorist group. It's straightforward and people can understand it - sorta like the SS scale does today.

I've been on the 'pointy end of the stick' for hurricane education for the past five years and have seen enough to offer my opinion that the proposed changes will mean confusion....
Yikes.... and how could forget Portlight Relief Walk in New Orleans!!!!! Check out Patraps blog for details!

Hurricane season is rapidly approaching - many of us are on her map for target practice, or Hurricane pinball - as my son likes to call it--

By supporting Portlight you are assisting an effective grassroots organization (by the people for the people) that directs aid directly to those in need. Be part of making a difference.

If you can not attend an event - pick a blog buddy and support their efforts, no blog buddy pick a city you like and send a donation.

Are you a surfer that gets rides from Hurricane created waves -- pay up...cause most always our pleasure has has caused havoc somewhere else...... help makes those waves guilt free
Quoting Ossqss:
If you thought there was a chance that someone could get hurt if you did not say anything, what would you do? NHC

Why wait? Make it so on the SS ( storm surge ) forecast. It is not much different than the track and intesity forecasts we currently deal with, is it?

It would simply wrap around the other, right?



I agree with Patrap. I would rather be inconvienienced with a false alarm rather than injured or killed by a missing alarm. My premise in post #76 was in relation to storm surge and not the hur scale. I have corrected it. Those who do not live directly on the coast need to know their vulerability to storm surge. In many instances, it could be far greater up stream in a river or bay than on the coastline. With all the knoledge we have earned with respect to tropical weather, it is disheartening that our gov would put a potentially life saving notice on the back burner. We understand the physics, we have the observations, experience and records, we developed the technology to predict it, we currently provide similar or same notifications on a local level, and we sit it on a shelf for 3 - 5 years? That is unacceptable. The referece to being sued is the inverse of how I would see it. The propensity for litigation would most certainly be higher after an injury or death vs. inconvinience. Just my take.
Dr. Masters

Was the Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential Index mentioned at the conference. There is a paper from Mark Powell and Tim Reinhold about this after Katrina.




We were completely ignorant of SS until Ike last year. I had no respect for SS until I saw what Ike brought with him.....

Like I previously posted, I was very flip about this... then when we saw what was happening miles and miles AWAY from the 'cane as far as surge -- I had an entirely new perspective & respect
Its Pat,..not Pap..

Thats a Medical Exam..

I know your good work Tom,..Ive referenced it many times,and your to be applauded for it.

But thats exactly why educating the Populace while their young and in school is a dire thing.

If taught from a young age in Schools, We will have adults that,in the future,will be better prepared to Safely make decisions on such matters.


Fiji Meteorological Services

TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI (CAT 1)
21.6ºS 158.6ºW - 35 knots 995 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Warning #4 (1200z 11MAR)
============================================

Special Tropical Cyclone Bulletin - Southern Cook Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Joni, Category One (995 hPa) located at 21.6S 158.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots close to the center, possibly increasing to 40 knots in the next 6-12 hours. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral/infrared imagery with animation, latest peripheral surface observations, recent Quikscat, and Microwave Passes.

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle

CIMMS indicates the system will remain in a weakly sheared environment and with warm sea surface temperatures around 28C along the forecast track for the next 24 hours. Development is expected to continue.

Dvorak analysis based on a 0.8 wrap on LOG10 Spiral, resulting in DT=3.5 MET=PT=3.0 FT based on MET Yielding..

T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

An intensifying ridge of high pressure to the southwest of Joni is enhancing the pressure gradient to the east of the low level circulation center. An upper trough approaching the system from the southwest. Joni is being steered southwest by a mid level ridge to the east and is expected to curve southward in the next 12-18 hours. GLobal models agree on a southerly track with gradual weakening. Beyond 24 hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing shear will weaken Joni.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 22.7S 158.8W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 24.9S 158.4W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 30.8S 157.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)

THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 19:30 PM UTC..

Quoting Patrap:
Its Pat,..not Pap..

Thats a Medical Exam..

I know your good work Tom,..Ive referenced it many times,and your to be applauded for it.

But thats exactly why educating the Populace while their young and in school is a dire thing.

If taught from a young age in Schools, We will have adults that,in the future,will be better prepared to Safely make decisions on such matters.



Have you been getting anonymous Fathers day cards.
I get mail that is at best,screened and censored mostly.


LOL
Good afternoon everyone.
NHC has a floater up on Joni:

Link
What are the stats on tropical weather related deaths? Drowning, wind blown debris etc. Which represents the largest risk to human life? Could it be storm surge?
Quoting Patrap:
Its Pat,..not Pap..



Oh, JEEZ, Sorry about that! My eyes are starting to go...

Thanks for the compliments on my work. It's not an easy gig, I'll tell you for sure!

I agree with you 100% that we need to get to kids and teach them. We're actually working on a Hurricanes for Kids video which we will stream on our site that will cover basically everything a well-informed kid needs to know.

I guess maybe I'm just one of those KISS kinda guys.

P.S. - an interesting side note on the interview I did with Dr. Simpson. I asked him why if the SS scale was created in 1969, it took until Dr. Frank was in charge in 1974 before it was released to the public.

His answer was quite telling. He said that he was reluctant to release it because of what is happening today. His fear was that if people heard a storm was going to be JUST a category 1, they might ignore the warnings....
Quoting Ossqss:
What are the stats on tropical weather related deaths? Drowning, wind blown debris etc. Which represents the largest risk to human life? Could it be storm surge?


More deaths are caused by fresh water drownings than any other cause regarding hurricanes.

Quoting Ossqss:
What are the stats on tropical weather related deaths? Drowning, wind blown debris etc. Which represents the largest risk to human life? Could it be storm surge?


OSS, how do you want the numbers figured? If it has been an average per season in the United States for the past 40 years or so, the biggest danger is inland flooding.

Historically, however, storm surge claims the most hands down... That's why we can't afford to have anyone confused as to their course of action when an order comes down...
Inland flooding causes most hurricane deaths
By Ken Kaye | South Florida Sun-Sentinel
In a new study that surprised weather specialists, it was discovered that between 1970 and 1999, inland flooding has claimed far more lives than storm surge, strong winds or tornadoes in the continental United States.

Link
Quoting vortfix:
Inland flooding causes most hurricane deaths
By Ken Kaye | South Florida Sun-Sentinel
In a new study that surprised weather specialists, it was discovered that between 1970 and 1999, inland flooding has claimed far more lives than storm surge, strong winds or tornadoes in the continental United States.

Link


And, then Katrnina had to come along and blow those numbers away...
Historically, however, storm surge claims the most hands down... That's why we can't afford to have anyone confused as to their course of action when an order comes down...

Perhaps it is just me, but I find that statement at odds with the general intent of the proposition to save lives by notifying the populous of the inherent dangers ( plural ) approaching. By default, storm surge is contained in any Hurricane watch or warning. No offense, I just don't think we can ignore an opportunity to let folks know they may not be in the center of the storm, but may be sitting on their roof due to high water instead of in a shelter.

I will now step off of my surge soap box. §
Thanks for all your words TampaTom,..education is the fundamental key in all the debate on that issue.

Best of Luck for a quiet H-season as well.

On launch day, a blog will update the countdown beginning at 4 p.m. Originating from Kennedy, the blog is the definitive Internet source for information leading up to launch.

STS-119 Discovery ET H2 and O2 Loading has begun

During the mission, visitors to NASA's shuttle Web site can read about the crew's progress and watch the spacewalks live. As Discovery's flight wraps up, NASA's blog will detail the spacecraft's return to Earth.

Live updates to the NASA News Twitter feed will be added throughout the shuttle launch countdown, mission and landing. To access the NASA News Twitter feed and other agency Twitter feeds,

visit:http://www.nasa.gov/collaborate

Rolling the Inland Hurricane Warning into just a regular Hurricane Warning is brilliant! Most people do not pay attention to the "inland warning" because the focus is always on the coast.

The weather channel NEVER gives attention to the inland hurricane warnings! (that I've seen anyways, and I've been watching for the better part of 20 years). If it was just a hurricane warning (and watch) that extended as far inland as the hurricane conditions are expected, then everyone would be more prepared. The same goes for tropical storms watches and warnings.

Speaking from experience with Hurricane Gustav I can tell you that absolutely NOONE was prepared for the fury that storm unleashed on Baton Rouge. We are far enough inland that everyone thinks we are safe, when that is far from the case. Gustav hit as a cat 2 with winds of 110. I cannot imagine what it would have done to Baton Rouge had it hit as the cat 4 it was predicted to be.
Quoting Ossqss:
Perhaps it is just me, but I find that statement at odds with the general intent of the proposition to save lives by notifying the populous of the inherent dangers ( plural ) approaching. By default, storm surge is contained in any Hurricane watch or warning. No offense, I just don't think we can ignore an opportunity to let folks know they may not be in the center of the storm, but may be sitting on their roof due to high water instead of in a shelter.


You make an excellent point. And, I agree with you 100% that any hurricane watch/warning contains the elements of a storm surge warning that needs to be heeded.

If you know about Dr. Simpson's contribution to the SS scale, he was the guy who added the anticipated surge levels to Herb Saffir's wind-load scale in order to create a more 'comprehensive' warning package.

Now, here's what bugs me about this new Surge warning product - it's just a blue line on the map. There's nothing in the fact that you are under a surge warning that tells you to expect a three foot or a 23 foot surge...

Where do you find that information? From the local NWS office. That's exactly where you get the surge information from now...

So nothing will change - except the message to the local community that says, "Oh, by the way, we're under a Hurricane Warning AND a Storm Surge warning AND a coastal flood warning AND a tornado watch..." Just another layer of warning products that will require more explanation and possibly lead to greater confusion.
Quoting hondaguy:
Rolling the Inland Hurricane Warning into just a regular Hurricane Warning is brilliant! Most people do not pay attention to the "inland warning" because the focus is always on the coast.

The weather channel NEVER gives attention to the inland hurricane warnings! (that I've seen anyways, and I've been watching for the better part of 20 years). If it was just a hurricane warning (and watch) that extended as far inland as the hurricane conditions are expected, then everyone would be more prepared. The same goes for tropical storms watches and warnings.

Speaking from experience with Hurricane Gustav I can tell you that absolutely NOONE was prepared for the fury that storm unleashed on Baton Rouge. We are far enough inland that everyone thinks we are safe, when that is far from the case. Gustav hit as a cat 2 with winds of 110. I cannot imagine what it would have done to Baton Rouge had it hit as the cat 4 it was predicted to be.


I dread it when, unlike Gustav, we see an intensifying hurricane prior to landfall -- one that hits as a Category 4, or in worse case scenario, Category 5. Obviously, I wouldn't wish this on Louisiana, much less anybody else, but one of these days, it's going to happen. I hope the inland areas (and NOLA for that matter) are sufficiently prepared for such destruction.

Actually, I'd wager that it's possible for a Category 5 to move as far inland as Baton Rouge without losing Category 5 status, provided it's 180 (or stronger) mph, and is moving as fast as Gustav was or faster. Case in point, Hurricane Lili in 2002. Had she not weakened to a Category 1 from a 4 prior to landfall, she would've come near Baton Rouge as a Category 4, due to her swift forward speed.
Thanks TampaTom, thats exactly what we needed to hear, or in this case read. Simple, will be safer for the masses. We really don't need our weather watches and warnings to read like another IRS tax form. Your explanation gets to the heart of the issue. There is no separating the two items. As your pap said, education is the answer.
Pat...to your point in post # 102...the other night Stormjunkie and I spoke to a group of high school kids about participating in our Charleston Portlight Walk...

and it dawned on me: not a single one of them was alive when Hugo hit here (1989)...
Quoting Ossqss:
As your pap said, education is the answer.


Oh, Gawd, I'll never live it down!
The launch tonight got scrubbed.
Quoting hahaguy:
The launch tonight got scrubbed.

fuel leak -- postponed 24 hrs min.
Ok can someone answer me this, why is Hamish forecasted to weaken over the same waters that brought it to cat 4 strength? did shear move in when Hamish left?
They scrubbed the space shuttle launch darn it.
24 hour turnaround, launch might be tomorrow.
I hear ya Paul.
A Living memory is not always present in some areas where a Hurricane hasnt impacted for a Long Time.


Quoting KoritheMan:


I dread it when, unlike Gustav, we see an intensifying hurricane prior to landfall -- one that hits as a Category 4, or in worse case scenario, Category 5. Obviously, I wouldn't wish this on Louisiana, much less anybody else, but one of these days, it's going to happen. I hope the inland areas (and NOLA for that matter) are sufficiently prepared for such destruction.

Actually, I'd wager that it's possible for a Category 5 to move as far inland as Baton Rouge without losing Category 5 status, provided it's 180 (or stronger) mph, and is moving as fast as Gustav was or faster. Case in point, Hurricane Lili in 2002. Had she not weakened to a Category 1 from a 4 prior to landfall, she would've come near Baton Rouge as a Category 4, due to her swift forward speed.


One of these days is an accurate statement unfortunatly.

The infamous Hurricane Camille is a good example of what you said.
Is it not possible to give categories to expected storm surge?

Category A: 1-3 ft surge
Category B: 3-6 ft surge
...

An additional problem is that of timing. If the storm were to strike during low tide event in an area with large tidal variation, there may not be much cause for concern.

If the storm were to strike at high tide, then there is a much higher surge risk.

at the airport,headed to NYC,I guess no snow this years trip...boo-hoo.....at least I get to come back to a beach apt.,spring break and nice 80 degree days and perfect 60 degree nights...
Quoting Patrap:
I hear ya Paul.
A Living memory is not always present in some areas where a Hurricane hasnt impacted for a Long Time.




Speaking of living memory, those of you of the North Carolina affliction might be interested to know (from email):

"This Fall the Center for Natural Hazards Research at East Carolina University will be hosting a multidisciplinary symposium to mark the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Floyd. The symposium is titled "Hurricane Floyd Symposium: Commemorating the 10th Anniversary of Hurricane Floyd" and will take place in Greenville, NC on September 17 and 18, 2009. "
I'll say hello to your old "stompin grounds" while I'm up,that was me in the car yesterday when you were jogging!!!!!,were all the spring break "wipper snappers" getting in the way??...lol
The graphical one shows the march of the atmospheric pressure in the weather station of Boca de Jaruco for the month of February.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI (CAT 1)
6:00 AM FST March 12 2009
===========================

Special Tropical Cyclone Bulletin - Southern Cook Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Joni, Category One (995 hPa) located at 22.2S 158.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots close to the center, possibly increasing to 40 knots in the next 6-12 hours. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots. Position POOR based on GOES visible/infrared imagery with animation, and recent Quikscat pass.

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle

Overall organization remains good in the past 24 hours. A dense overcast has developed in the last 4-6 hours. System remains in a strong diffluent region with good outflow. An upper short wave trough is approaching the system from the southwest

Dvorak analysis based on a 0.6 wrap on LOG10 Spiral, resulting in DT=3.0 MET=PT=3.0 FT based on MET Yielding..

T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

CIMSS indicates the system will remain in a weakly sheared environment along the forecast track for the next 24 hours, development is expected to continue. An intensifying ridge of high pressure to the southwest of Joni is enhancing the pressure gradient along the eastern periphery. Joni is currently moving southeast but is expected to gradually curve southward in the next 24-48 hours in response to a mid level ridge. Global models agree on a southerly track with gradual weakening. Beyond 24 hrs, cooler sea surface temperatures, and increasing shear will weaken Joni.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 23.6S 158.4W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 25.5S 158.6W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 31.4S 158.5W - 35 knots (CAT 1)

THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 2:30 AM UTC..
Hello everyone....i just completed my Web site that mirrors my WU Blog.....Hopefully some will find it useful when time comes....

It has these categories....
Hurricane Supply Store
Weather Graphics and Maps
Forecast and Blog
Boat, Tide, and Beach
Fire Weather
SEISMIC AND TSUNAMI
Weather Links
Calendar
Videos

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/index.htm
Tropical Cyclone Update (2300z 11MAR)
============================

At 9:00 AM EST, Tropical Low, Ex-Hamish [1000 hPa] located at 21.9S 152.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 33 knots. The low is reported as moving west-northwest at 8 knots.

Winds have now eased below Gale-Force Winds
Hello all...Been on here maybe twice since hurricane season ended...How has everyone been? The talk about the NHC considering a Storm Surge forecast caught my eyes. I think it would help alot of people and make preparation alot more accurate...
hey caneaddict good to see you back
Good evening all! Nice to see you back CaneAddict and hope all has been well with you and your family.

Been monitoring the drought situation for weeks now in Florida and grow increasingly concerned about a potentially dangerous fire season that could ensue in the coming months. Not only has their been an absolute lack of rainfall throughout Southern and Central Florida, but the multiple deep cold snaps that came through damaged crops and vegetation which could serve as tinder for any potential fires. Right now we are seeing such a case in SW Miami Dade where two large wildfires have broken out and continue to burn as of the latest updates.

But, it seems that there may be some relief in the future as the 18Z GFS model depicts a good rain chance for Florida come middle to late next week as a weak disturbance develops in the Central GOM and moves into Central Florida come Wednesday. Based upon the newest GFS run, it forecasts widespread rainfall across the Sunshine State for next week, especially Thursday and Friday. Below is the forecast rainfall totals for next Tuesday through Saturday.


Figure 1 18Z GFS Forecast Rainfall Totals for next Tuesday through Saturday

Just really praying that this becomes a reality and verifies as all Florida really needs some rainfall in order to at least ease the drought and lower the fire danger across the state. I will be monitoring each subsequent model run for consistency.
While speaking about the drought situation in Florida, it would be irresponsible not to mention the serious drought situation currently happening in Texas. At this time, Texas has the worst drought in the country as nearly 10% currently are in extreme drought.

Well, some drought relief has arrived in Texas during the day today as widespread rainfall broke out due to a stalled frontal boundary across the SE US and will continue to bring much needed rainfall, especially to Central Texas.

As with Florida, the 18Z GFS depicts more drought relief for Texas as it forecasts widespread rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches in many areas throughout the state. Below you will find the current forecast rainfall totals from Thursday into next Monday. Note the widespread heavy rainfall across the Southern States, except Florida, during this time period.


Figure 2 18Z GFS Forecasted Rainfall Totals for Thursday through next Monday

Really am happy to see Texas received some much needed rainfall and even happier to see more drought relief will be coming as several disturbances will rotate over the high currently dominating Florida and produce more rainfall across Texas and the SE US.
Nice to see you both, hahaguy and CCHS. I wass also looking at that run and I really am praying my self that it verifies...As far as this upcoming hurricane season chances appear to be high that if Florida does get hit..it would most likely be from the west side..and thats not good...but I guess we all should be prepared.
Quoting CaneAddict:
Nice to see you both, hahaguy and CCHS. I wass also looking at that run and I really am praying my self that it verifies...As far as this upcoming hurricane season chances appear to be high that if Florida does get hit..it would most likely be from the west side..and thats not good...but I guess we all should be prepared.


Starting to work on creating my 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast and will publish it on May 1st. At this time, I have to agree with you, especially since we're trending towards either a neutral ENSO or weak El Nino come hurricane season. Even though we don't want to suffer any damage from a tropical cyclone, thats what Florida needs right now to bust out from this severe drought plaguing the state.
Gustav downed a lot of trees in Baton Rouge. It had 60 mph sustained winds and gusts to 90, just a bit stronger than Betsy. Where I grew up sawed up trees lined the road 10 to 12 feet high after Gustav except for driveways. All of that damage of course comes nowhere near what happened at the coast. Someone driving through Baton Rouge today probably would not be aware that a hurricane had passed by last September. Down at the coast ... that's a different story.

If New Orleans were not built below sea level the effects of Katrina would have been a lot different. Hurricanes and New Orleans are an atypical combination. The death statistics that exclude Katrina are probably a truer picture of the threat from hurricanes for most parts of the US coastline.
looks like we will not see any low wind shear out there any time soon

Link




any one no what the set up will be with the big H this year???
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for area south of 10S between 90E-110E
12:15 PM WDT March 12 2009
=====================================
A tropical low (10R-20082009), located west of the region near 20S 085E, is forecast to move slowly southwest and is not expected to affect areas east of 90E.

  • A second tropical low near 10S 096E is expected to drift slowly west over the next three days and may develop into a tropical cyclone near 090E on Sunday or Monday.

    Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
    ====================================
    Friday: Low
    Saturday: Low
    Sunday: Moderate
  • NIAGARA FALLS, Ontario – A man jumped into Niagara Falls on Wednesday and survived the 180-foot plunge, then resisted rescue attempts before he eventually was pulled from the icy water to safety, police said.

    The man, believed to be in his late 30s, was semiconscious when he was taken to a hospital. He lapsed into unconsciousness and was listed in critical condition.

    Niagara Parks Police Chief Doug Kane said the man "voluntarily entered into the water and refused medical assistance at the bottom."

    He said the man was suffering from hypothermia and a head injury. Police were unable to get any information from the man because of the effects of the near-freezing water.

    A witness called police shortly after 2 p.m. and told them a man had climbed over a retaining wall and jumped into the rapids above the Horseshoe Falls, one of Niagara Falls' three waterfalls. A short time later, the man was seen near the base of the falls.

    Specially trained falls rescue crews tried to assist the man, but he swam away from them toward the middle of the river, Kane said.

    A private helicopter was called in and got close enough to the victim so that wind from its blades forced him close enough to shore for rescuers to reach him.

    "He wasn't cooperative," pilot Ruedi Hafen, owner of Niagara Falls Helicopter, told The Associated Press. "He didn't try to be helpful. We had a sling on him and he got out of it."

    Rescue crews said the man was in the water for about 45 minutes and spent much of that time resisting attempts to help him.

    Firefighter Todd Brunning and another rescue worker swam about 60 yards from shore, grabbed hold of him and hauled him in, Niagara Fire Capt. David Belme said.

    Brunning said the man was floating on his back and got caught in an eddy, allowing Brunning to swim up behind him and wrap his arms around his chest.

    "I was surprised he was still conscious when we got to him," Brunning said. "I guess he was lucky."

    Brunning said the man was responsive to verbal commands but unable to talk.

    "He was on a suicide mission, I assume," Hafen said. "I've never, in my career, seen someone so tough, swimming between the ice."

    The last person known to survive a plunge over the falls was a Michigan man, Kirk Jones, who climbed down a small embankment and jumped into the Niagara River on Oct. 20, 2003. Jones said he had been depressed and had been drinking.

    At least 17 people — not including suicide attempts — are known to have gone over the falls.

    Niagara Falls' three waterfalls are the American Falls, Horseshoe Falls and Bridal Veil Falls
    Quoting Tazmanian:
    looks like we will not see any low wind shear out there any time soon

    Link




    any one no what the set up will be with the big H this year???


    I've learned not to focus on wind shear values during the spring. Indeed, even if shear is high in June (which it normally is, hence why the Gulf, the western Atlantic, and the northwest Caribbean are the only hotspots for tropical cyclogenesis during that month), the jet stream will gradually shift northward, and consequently, it will relax the shear.

    From my observations of the last couple years, shear starts to markedly decline beginning in the middle of July. And remember Taz, even if shear remains prohibitive throughout the season, that may mean more heat energy for 2010, because no significant storms will have upwelled cooler water.

    It is my personal opinion that (admittedly, I am no expert, although I do consider myself well-versed on the subject of tropical meteorology) we will see the warm side of ENSO neutral (75%), with a possible weak El Nino this season (25%).

    Finally, I'm thinking of conducting a personal study on the correlation between El Nino and Atlantic tropical cyclone recurvature. Back during 2007, STL and weatherboykris critiqued that very theory that I posited within a blog of mine, and they did not think it was a correlation. But even with that, I'm going to study more on that subject, and determine if there really is a correlation. If there is, El Nino events might not be so bad for us in the United States.

    As for the Bermuda High, I gave up trying to predict that long ago. >_>
    ya you never can be sure where that Bermuda high will be this early.

    I see the only high on the analysis surface map is along the eastern coast of the United States.. right now.
    Fiji Meteorological Services
    Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number EIGHT
    TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI (CAT 2)
    18:00 PM FST March 12 2009
    ====================================

    Special Tropical Cyclone Bulletin - Southern Cook Island

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Joni, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 23.4S 158.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots close to the center. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots. Position POOR based on METSAT infrared imagery with animation and recent Microwave Pass.

    Storm Force Winds
    =================
    20 NM from the center

    Gale Force Winds
    ====================
    150 NM of center in the southeastern semi-circle
    60 NM of center elsewhere.

    Overall organization remains good. Recent satellite imagery shows a central dense overcast developing over the low level circulation center. Outflow remains good to east and south and has regenerated in the northern sector, indicative that Joni has intensified in the last 6 hours. Short-wave trough over the system is moving off to the east and Joni is expected to get caught in an approaching long-wave trough from the west in the next 12-18 hours. System remains in a strong diffluent region in an area of low shear.

    Dvorak analysis based on a 0.9 wrap on LOG10 Spiral, resulting in DT=MET=3.5 =PT=3.0. FT based on DT.

    YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.

    Global models agree on a southerly track with gradual weakening as Joni moves into cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing shear.

    Forecast and Intensity
    ====================
    12 HRS: 25.4S 158.9W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
    24 HRS: 28.2S 158.9W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
    48 HRS: 34.7S 157.8W - 35 knots (CAT 1)

    The next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued around 14:30 PM UTC..
    Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
    ya you never can be sure where that Bermuda high will be this early.

    I see the only high on the analysis surface map is along the eastern coast of the United States.. right now.


    If a high parks on the East Coast durring this Hurricane season, My friends and I along the GOM are in a heap of trouble...

    Also remember,
    2005 was on the warm side of ENSO,
    watchout.
    Also KoritheMan,
    I firmly believe there are to be more fish storms durring an El Nino year than a Neutral or La Nina year.
    Quoting Tazmanian:
    looks like we will not see any low wind shear out there any time soon

    Link




    any one no what the set up will be with the big H this year???


    Taz,
    Its early March.
    The wind sheer in March is suposed to be high!;D
    Don't worry, the windsheer will calm down in a couple of months when its suposed to.
    Again its only March.
    Good Morning all! Sitting here in missouri with ice on the windsheild every morning and 28 degrees outside looking at a line with snow SOUTH of us. Last week thought it was spring, trees budding, warm and balmy breeze. I live in Arizona so this kind of weather is most unkind to my very thin blood. I see the fires are up and roaring in Florida - certainly praying the GFS is correct about rain next week. And typhoons (or are they called cyclones) near Australia, one after the other. What global weather we have, always interesting, always changing.
    Can someone please telle me what they think hurricane season will be like? acitve or quiet? Who will get hit?
    Quoting hurricanelover236:
    Can someone please telle me what they think hurricane season will be like? acitve or quiet? Who will get hit?
    You'll have to ask Mother Nature -- she's holding the cards.... who will get hit?? pick your game : Hurricane Pinball, Hurricane Roulette, Hurricane Target Practice
    Thanks Hahaguy for the fire weather link for Florida.
    That is impressive.
    I'm not happy looking at the colors my state, FL, is wearing on the drought map. Chili Pepper Red w/ accents of chartreuse are not complimentary at all.

    The dancing Baby is not working, the rainsticks are not working.....I did find this, and I'm sharing it -- we NEED RAIN!!

    as for the drought, I found a gypsy method...... "if rain is your desire, whipping pond water w/a hazel stick is believed to invoke a downpour. This is known as "water witching"

    My neighbors are really going to love this one!! But, the dancing baby isn't working, the rainsticks are not working...so maybe i need to go whip the pond. : )
    Someone driving through Baton Rouge today probably would not be aware that a hurricane had passed by last September.

    Unless they were alert and wondered about all of the blue tarps still on a bunch of rooftops.
    Thank you so much patrap. Thats what i was looking for.
    My weather station has had 0.12 inches of rain since Jan 1st. Kinda crazy, and just about as dry as you can get. Think our drought index #'s in the area are in the upper 600's ...800 is it.. don't have very far to go.
    159

    I learn something every day even when I think I don't want to. Thanks Surfmom and don't worry about the neighbors. Looks like they bottle it now days. º¿ª §

    Link


    I'm not happy looking at the colors my state, FL, is wearing on the drought map. Chili Pepper Red w/ accents of chartreuse are not complimentary at all.



    you sould see the colors for ca if they had one
    Katrina veteran brings disaster message to FSVU


    Ret.General Honore to Speak at Conference in NOLA today.



    Yesterday

    Statement as of 5:09 PM EDT on March 11, 2009

    ... Record high temperature set at North Charleston SC...

    A record high temperature of 85 degrees was set at North Charleston
    SC today. This ties the old record of 85 set in 1967.
    5 more months till the heart of the 2009 hurricane season. time is flying happy weather
    170. GBlet
    Greetings from the "dustbowl"! Does anyone have any info on when we might get some moisture return here in Kansas? We have not gotten any decent winter weather here at all. I have flowers that are beginning to come up and I am very worried that they will not survive. Could use a little long range info.
    KEH....Ain't it a beautiful day in da Lowcountry?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
    Press - indeed it is. No place finer.
    Paul - I close tonight, and whether or not I make the Portlight Conference Calls depends on how busy we are. Kinda a good news/bad news. If we are slow - good for making a call - bad for making money (haha)
    KEH...if ya miss it tonight gimmee a ring manana....
    Will do
    Space station -- under assault by space debris-- Breaking news-- They are taking shelter in the escape pod.
    The Orbital Debris was an old satellite motor...

    It never came closer than 4 Kilometers to the ISS.

    They took precautionary safe Haven in the Soyuz just in case the object would have impacted the Station.
    The Danger has now passed.
    Can anyone direct me as to how to access the previous blog. I neglected to save the links to the hur preparedness lists. Thanks in advance
    ossgss scroll up on the right side and under the doc's pictures it should say blog archive choose march and one of those should have what you want.
    Quoting hahaguy:
    ossgss scroll up on the right side and under the doc's pictures it should say blog archive choose march and one of those should have what you want.


    Thanks I thought that was for more photo's. Sometimes the most obvious can be the most obscured. Be well.
    181. HTV
    Finally getting a little precip in the Houston Area. At least enough to find out my wiper blades have dry rotted.
    What we need to do here to end the drought is to pray to the Lord Jesus Christ. lets dance for him. and noone else.
    The thing to watch for is what the conditions are that steer the storms when there is a storm in the area. Timing is critical. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. Last year we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when".


    All you need is a ripe pattern for hurricanes and their tracks to affect the U.S. for about a 5 to 8 week period and it could be a very bad year.

    Adrian
    Well said Adrian.
    I am starting to lean towards a warm ENSO during the heart of the season. Got to remember, 2005 was a warm ENSO.
    And Adrian, well said. Glad to see you, how's the degree going!
    "Will proposed dike protect Galveston from hurricanes?"


    I don't care about her sexuality, if she can protect Galveston, I support her.

    Fiji Meteorological Services
    Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number TEN
    TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI (CAT 2)
    6:00 AM FST March 13 2009
    ====================================

    Special Tropical Cyclone Bulletin - Southern Cook Island - Final bulletin

    At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Joni, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 25.0S 158.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots close to the center. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots. Position GOOD based on GOES infrared/visible imagery with animation and recent Microwave Pass.

    Storm Force Winds
    =================
    20 NM from the center

    Gale Force Winds
    ====================
    150 NM of center in the southeastern semi-circle
    60 NM of center elsewhere.

    Overall organization remains good. Recent microwave pass indicates good banding almost encircling low level circulation center. Outflow remains good to the east and developing to the south ut restricted elsewhere. A short-wave trough is currently affecting the system with a long-wave trough approaching from the far west. System remains in a strong diffluent region in an area of low shear.

    Dvorak analysis based on a 1.1 wrap on LOG10 Spiral, resulting in DT=MET=PT=4.0 FT based on DT.

    YIELDING T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS.

    Global models agree on a southerly track with gradual weakening as Joni moves into cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing shear.

    Forecast and Intensity
    ====================
    12 HRS: 27.0S 159.7W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
    24 HRS: 30.7S 159.4W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
    48 HRS: 39.8S 151.4W - 40 knots (CAT 1)

    Final advisory from RSMC Nadi.. For future warnings refer to TCWC Wellington advisories.
    Dry air giving joni a hard time.
    78 days til hurricane season
    Hurrah... I got my laptop back :) Finally
    Quoting theFatherofNature:
    78 days til hurricane season


    Ocean is warming up..

    Here we go in FL with fires. This one smoked me out. Kinda scary when you walk outside and it the smoke looks like a bunch of camp fires are going around your entire neighborhood. Come on RAIN !

    Link
    "Someone driving through Baton Rouge today probably would not be aware that a hurricane had passed by last September."

    Are you kidding me? Gustav smashed Baton Rouge with sustained winds of 110mph easy with way higher gusts.If you are not aware many areas of Baton Rouge were cutoff because of numerous 100+ year old Oak Trees that were covering the road and parts of peoples roof tops.If yu noticed there are numerous blue tarps on homes there.
    Quoting Ossqss:
    Here we go in FL with fires. This one smoked me out. Kinda scary when you walk outside and it the smoke looks like a bunch of camp fires are going around your entire neighborhood. Come on RAIN !

    Link


    Feel a little lucky.. we live on an Island.. not a lot of places to run to when it starts to burn.
    The CFS shear forecast continues to be the antithesis of what it predicted last year. CFS continues to show above average shear anomalies in the MDR region; however, the low shear along the eastern seaboard and the GOM shouldn't be overlooked.
    Link
    The warm side of ENSO makes me very nervous.I can't stress it any further.
    Acording to that map a Tropical Cyclone similar to Andrew or Ike(Just 2 examples) trackwise is less likley to have wind sheer problems in this upcoming season. :/

    That ain't good...

    Acording to that map a Tropical Cyclone similar to Andrew or Ike(Just 2 examples) trackwise is less likley to have wind sheer problems in this upcoming season. :/

    That ain't good...
    Quoting Orcasystems:


    Feel a little lucky.. we live on an Island.. not a lot of places to run to when it starts to burn.

    Ok, I feel better, I think?

    Glad you got your LT back. Been there done that and its not a fun thing. Hopefully they were able to image your drive.
    Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam

    Mirror Site



    Current Home weather station data.

    Hurrah... even got an update done
    Quoting Orcasystems:
    Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam

    Mirror Site



    Current Home weather station data.

    Hurrah... even got an update done


    Critter cam looks good. I see you had to obtain another. Was the linksys as easy to set up as expected?
    hurricane season is rapidly approaching - many of us are on her map for target practice, or Hurricane pinball - as my son likes to call it--

    By supporting Portlight.org you are assisting an effective grassroots organization (by the people for the people) that directs aid directly to those in need. Be part of making a difference.

    If you can not attend an event - pick a blog buddy and support their efforts, no blog buddy pick a city you like and send a donation.

    Are you a surfer that gets rides from Hurricane created waves? -- pay up...cause most always our pleasure has has caused havoc somewhere else...... help makes those waves guilt free
    Destin Dog Walk April 26th - Check SUGARSAND,PORTLIGHT OR CODE1 Blog for details & pictures

    ALSO - any folks from Houston on the blog today--check out SMMCDAVID's blog for information regarding the Portlight.org walk there.

    Hurricane season approaches -- part of being prepared is supporting this WU grassroots organization that may be offering YOU hurricane aid this season.

    Yikes.... and how could forget Portlight Relief Walk in New Orleans!!!!! Check out Patraps blog for details!
    Ossgss - Heck Yes -- we saw that fired today coming home -- actually didn't see - saw the traffic pile up on 75 headin north -- Happily we were going in the other direction.

    I've been wailing 'bout this for a while -- it's the driest I've ever seen it -- I thought last year and a few years back were bad -- this year -- Lordy-- I'm sure praying we don't have videos that are on par w/the Australia.

    We need rain -- the state looks like Lady in RED - and I prefer not to see her have a hot flash
    Anyone have any suggestions on a digital battery-operated portable t.v. for hurricane season?
    Quoting Ossqss:


    Critter cam looks good. I see you had to obtain another. Was the linksys as easy to set up as expected?


    Actually.. once you do one.. they are very simple.. second one took about 5 minutes.
    Quoting surfmom:
    Ossgss - Heck Yes -- we saw that fired today coming home -- actually didn't see - saw the traffic pile up on 75 headin north -- Happily we were going in the other direction.

    I've been wailing 'bout this for a while -- it's the driest I've ever seen it -- I thought last year and a few years back were bad -- this year -- Lordy-- I'm sure praying we don't have videos that are on par w/the Australia.

    We need rain -- the state looks like Lady in RED - and I prefer not to see her have a hot flash


    I think they got things under control for now. We need the rain, but not any lighting.

    Check a previous post relating to your witch hazel thing. Quite interesting.
    Good luck on that one. You may be better off to buy a deep cycle battery and an inverter to go with a small TV and a new digital converter. Gotta do the math on that however. I looked prior and could not find anything appropriate. The inverter can run a fan during generator down time also, and charge other items of interest, pc, or power your network connection etc.
    The day after Charlie, I gave my 120 amp hr battery and 500 va inverter to a group of elderly folks (15) and they used a fan for 2 days to keep cool on one charge. Just a thought on integrating what you have available.
    One last thought for you. If you have a portable LCD dvd player with inputs, you can use the HDTV signal converter to pump a signal to that also. It uses less energy than a tube tv. I am outta here. Sports time. §
    Looks to me like La Nina is making a comeback.

    Quoting Orcasystems:


    Actually.. once you do one.. they are very simple.. second one took about 5 minutes.


    You're the Handy Dandy Man!!!
    MJO may be headed ths way.
    If the MJO is packing rain -- I shall not complain!! I'm told trash tomato's have a preference for rain water!! ; )
    Quoting SevereHurricane:
    Looks to me like La Nina is making a comeback.

    okay so a la nina maens more hurricanes and a el nino means less hurricanes??? ??? ???
    As far as ENSO goes I think we are just seeing a little short bit of cooling right after a Kelvin wave. A little down in the ups & downs that are gradually working up warmer.

    3,4 is the one that counts.
    Check out the T-Depth anomily. Other than the little patch of cool near the surface toward region 1,2~ It's really warmed up, especially the west end in the depths.
    I don't like that drought map - we went from drowning to frying. It is sooo dry here - everyday I see new little fires on the side of the road.

    surfmom, i agree about so dry , they say water levels are down 78% and the water levels may last one more month. me im on well water and its just a matter of time till that starts running low. NEED RAIN SOON. this is in pasco county
    221. AndyN
    Anybody got the latest 2009 predictions?
    Strong La Nina better chance the caribbean gets storms. Strong El Nino better chance of fish storms.
    In other words..to early to tell what 2009 will bring us...
    224. DDR
    Quoting Skyepony:
    Strong La Nina better chance the caribbean gets storms. Strong El Nino better chance of fish storms.

    Which are we in right now?
    which way is it going for the hurricane season?
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory
    Tropical Cyclone Joni (CAT 2)
    13:00 PM NZDT March 13 2009
    ============================================

    At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Joni, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 25.6S 159.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots close to the center, easing to 50 knots in 12 hrs. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

    Storm Force Winds
    =================
    30 miles from the center

    Gale Force Winds
    ====================
    150 miles of center in the southeastern semi-circle
    60 miles of center in northwest semi-circle
    Quoting DDR:

    Which are we in right now?
    which way is it going for the hurricane season?


    We are supposed to have Neutral Water Temps. in the S. Pacific this season.
    That would sugest an active season and generally there are more storms in the GOM.
    too early to tell what kind of season this will be...but be prepared!
    Remember, it only takes one...
    I think we have a nomination for this season's JFV!!!! (Just a joke)
    okay so a la nina maens more hurricanes and a el nino means less hurricanes??? ??? ???
    230 that is the general tend but is not always the case I thing 04 is an example of El nino
    My Seasonal Hurricane Activity Forecasting Run





    Fire when ready Guvna..

    Pat LMAO .
    Don't forget the dice rolling Pat...
    I used June - November months Atlantic season to determine ENSO from 1925-2008 (83 years)
    I have not verified my numbers (was just doing it for my info), but this is what I ended up with

    El Nino (25 of 83 years) 195 Storms, 113 Hurricanes, 44 Cat3
    La Nina (23 of 83 years) 289 Storms, 159 Hurricanes, 87 Cat3
    Neutral (35 of 83 years) 377 Storms, 211 Hurricanes, 86 Cat3

    Of course this does not indicate where these storms went.


    I was particularly interested in South Carolina storms.
    Looking at the statistics for storms within 100 miles of the SC coast - I did NOT include storms that came in the backdoor (from GOM east to SC)I found that:

    El Nino (25 of 83 years) 12 Storms, 10 Hurricanes, 3 Cat3
    At closest impact to SC the strength of these storms were 7 TS, 3 Cat1, 1 Cat2, 1 Cat3
    5 Storms made landfall in SC, most as TS, 1 as Cat1

    La Nina (23 of 83 years) 16 Storms, 10 Hurricanes, 8 Cat3
    At closest impact to SC the strength of these storms were 8 TS, 4 Cat1, 2 Cat2, 1 Cat3, 1 Cat4 (Hazel 1954)
    5 Storms made landfall in SC - Intensity at landfall; 2 TS, 2 Cat1, 1 Cat4 (Hazel SC/NC Border)

    Neutral (35 of 83 years) 25 Storms, 18 Hurricanes, 8 Cat3
    At closest impact to SC the strength of these storms were 15 TS, 3 Cat1, 4 Cat2, 1 Cat3, 2 Cat4 (Gracie 1959, Hugo 1989)
    8 Storms made landfall in SC - Intensity at landfall, 4 TS, 1 Cat1, 1 Cat2, 2 Cat4 (Gracie 1959, Hugo 1989)
    Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
    Don't forget the dice rolling Pat...


    And the almighty 8 ball
    I look at Seasonal Cane' Casting this way..as a rule.


    If ya cant tell me who,when,or where..

    It's all just Voodoo.

    It's just silly to pre-predict that storms will be prone to hit any area in any given year...just plain silly...
    Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
    I think we have a nomination for this season's JFV!!!! (Just a joke)


    ha! who?
    Quoting Patrap:
    My Seasonal Hurricane Activity Forecasting Run





    Fire when ready Guvna..



    READY

    16/17 S
    6/8 H
    4/6 M

    o i almost forgot 5 or 6 will be sub-tropical a couple at the start a few at the end which may be a record for subtropical storms i think 74 was 4 for the record at the moment
    My son calls it Hurricane Pinball, Hurricane Roulette and Hurricane Target practice -- depends on the Storm & it's personality.

    Best Wave Maker 2008 Hurricane Season: Dolly

    Nastiest,FOULEST Wake Maker 2008 Hurricane Season: IKE

    Of all the waves I have ever surfed ( 4 years) Ike was the nastiest, foulest most KNARLY with teeth waves ever. That storm's personality was the Devil. He brought emotional discordance, along with an ocean filled with stinging nettles and sea lice -- I suffered for every ride.... even his waters had a tone & feeling of misery ....he never really ever gave one day of pleasurable waves....... he was HORRID
    Quoting hahaguy:


    And the almighty 8 ball


    A Magic wand works too ;D

    Hurricane Season is right around the corner.
    But we have to deal with Severe Wx season before the fun starts.

    Keeper -
    Well, if you are going out on a limb, I will too

    13-14 Storms
    6-7 Hurricanes
    3-4 Major
    Can't wait for the "fun" to start also...It's a shame we have to hope for a tropical system to give so. fla. our much needed rain.
    Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
    Can't wait for the "fun" to start also...It's a shame we have to hope for a tropical system to give so. fla. our much needed rain.


    I hear ya
    Lets go...

    15-17
    7-9
    4-6
    I will not remember next week what my guess was. Let's hope we all guess high.
    iam out on the limb and i also got a saw with me too
    no one knows for sure and we have 2 months and 17 days to figure it out
    77 days and counting
    Amazing how fast time goes by..

    Posted by: JeffMasters, 7:38 PM EST on November 25, 2008

    The hurricane season of 2008 draws to a close on Sunday, but leaves behind an indelible mark in history and in the lives of the millions of people it affected. After two years of relative tranquility, the active hurricane period that began in 1995 returned in full force this year, living up to pre-season predictions. It was a top ten hurricane season when considering the total number of named storms and major hurricanes, and ranked 24th using a better measure of total seasonal activity, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Hurricane records in the Atlantic go back to 1851. An ACE index of 95-100 is average, so this year's ACE of 141 puts this season at about 45% more active than average. The remainder of this post will list some notable statistics, records, and events that occurred during the hurricane season of 2008. It is by no means an exhaustive list, and I could have added much more.

    First, here's how this season measured up to other seasons:

    6th most named storms (16; the record is 28 in 2005)
    25th most hurricanes (8; the record is 15 in 2005)
    9th most major hurricanes (5; the record is 8 in 1950)
    24th highest ACE index (141; the record is 250 in 2005)
    13th highest Named Storm Days (84.75; record is 136 in 1933)
    40th highest Hurricane Days (29.5; the record is 62.5 in 1995)
    28th highest Major Hurricane Days (8.5; the record is 24.5 in 1961)
    Does anyone know??

    Someone told me that even though you do not have a land line phone service, that in times of a declared emergency, a phone connected to land line jacks will work.
    I suspect that they are confusing the fact that their land line telephone will work even though electricity is out (assuming you are not using a remote phone system).
    Voodoo ha..enso is my doll. Guess it's too early for my numbers. Need a better feel for SST, duldrums, shear, hots spots & loop eddys for all that.

    ENSO is hard to call that far out. Many models are calling for a raging El Niño by the end of season, with the start ruled by neutral conditions. Which would generally start things off more active as far as landfalls & end in storms mostly curving out to sea (or well sorry Bermuda). Cool side of neutral start is pretty likely, in my opinion, so caribbean & gulf would begin the season off at more risk. If ENSO continues to warm to the warm side of neutral or weak El Nino, higher risk would shift to the east coast. Pacific looks recharged atleast for a Neutral end in my opinion. Storms also seem atracted to drought so TX & FL gotta up your chances..
    Good evening all!...I thought i'd sweep through and let everyone know that I am upgrading my site in many ways and for those that didn't know about it last year I had a few fools posting innapropiate comments on my website and blog..I now have a feature where you must register with your e-mail to post comments. So please go ahead and register so you can join in on the discussions and post comments. I plan to come out with a blog update sometime this week.

    Canewatch Hurricane Center

    On the top right of the home page click "Register".

    Thanks alot!
    255. GBlet
    So, how do the La twins and their cuz Enso affect tornado season?
    Just remember Hurricane Andrew happened during an El Nino year with 6 storms. It's not how many you have , it's the ones that make landfall that make a difference.
    I want a hurricane
    258. GBlet
    Does anyone know what phase we were in the first week of May 2007?
    Could something like these be used as a type of HH drone? Among the uses could be monitoring subsurface SSTs, loops, etc. , and maybe monitoring changes in subsurface currents in coastal areas during surge events.
    They are already being used to hunt red tide. (But not in October - LOL)
    I will be running a College Basketball Charity Pool for PortLight Strategies on my Personal Web Site. There will be great Prizes and will be lots of fun and Smack Talk allowed....LOL. Details coming very soon. Again it will be held with all details on my Web Site. This will be a Charity event and hope that many will sign on.

    TampaSpins Web Link
    Quoting atmoaggie:
    Someone driving through Baton Rouge today probably would not be aware that a hurricane had passed by last September.

    Unless they were alert and wondered about all of the blue tarps still on a bunch of rooftops.


    LOL! Are the insurance companies really that slow?

    Since I visit BR from Houston, I may be desensitized to blue tarps. Come to think of it, I did see some tarps when I was there at Christmas. They are pretty much gone here in Houston. I got my shingles fixed without getting a blue tarp after Ike, i.e., the insurance didn't pay for it (deductible). Of course, losing shingles is nothing compared to recent blog pics of the Bolivar peninsula. I suspect Gustav left similar damage down by Grand Isle though I think its surge was smaller.
    Are the insurance companies really that slow?

    Yes.
    Quoting bappit:


    LOL! Are the insurance companies really that slow?

    Since I visit BR from Houston, I may be desensitized to blue tarps. Come to think of it, I did see some tarps when I was there at Christmas. They are pretty much gone here in Houston. I got my shingles fixed without getting a blue tarp after Ike, i.e., the insurance didn't pay for it (deductible). Of course, losing shingles is nothing compared to recent blog pics of the Bolivar peninsula. I suspect Gustav left similar damage down by Grand Isle though I think its surge was smaller.


    Honestly some of the Insurance Companies are rediculous here is SE LA. Numerous people will tell you a story about all the trouble the Insurance companies gave people after Hurricane Katrina.
    251. StormW

    Thanks Storm. Nice to see you again.
    252. KEHCharleston

    I think they are confused too.
    261. bappit
    Are the insurance companies really that slow?
    262. KoritheMan
    Yes.

    A major company, who shall remain nameless, but is "on your side", lowballed me quickly, offering 1/2 of a three tab roof. With each new adjuster, an installed square of shingles got more expensive and harder to come by. It ended up costing them twice my original request. I ended up with 40yr Dim., but I was under a blue tarp for seven months. LOL
    Gulf Will Be More Deadly If Data Buoys Are Deserted
    The Tampa Tribune
    Published: March 12, 2009
    257. G35Wayne 8:04 PM PDT on March 12, 2009
    I want a hurricane



    care full what you wish for you may get it
    Quoting Tazmanian:
    257. G35Wayne 8:04 PM PDT on March 12, 2009
    I want a hurricane



    care full what you wish for you may get it


    Yeah... I was like that prior to Gustav, and learned my lesson.

    Admittedly, the wind and rain of a hurricane is fascinating to me, and so I don't complain when one comes around. But I also understand that human lives are affected, and in some cases, destroyed, by these ferocious storms. Thus, I'll never wish for a hurricane, in spite of how exciting it can be.

    Wayne, as Taz said, be careful what you wish for. Don't underestimate the power of nature.
    269. JRRP
    mmm.....
    14-15
    7-8
    2-3
    Hurricanes are fascinating, I can tell you having been through Charley though I don't wish that upon anyone... Speaking of canes, probably gonna do a weather station test without power to prepare for the upcoming season, see if I can still upload data to WU in the event of a storm.
    On a related note, it's unfortunate that after years without a significant hurricane strike in a given location, it typically takes another major hurricane to strike an area that has been spared for a few years, in order for the general public to wake up, and remember that it can, and will, happen to them.

    It was like that for NOLA until Katrina, and even then, the people didn't heed the warnings enough (admittedly, it wasn't all their fault, seeing as how some of them couldn't possibly get out because they were in a bad condition, or something, but some of the people who could've left, stayed in spite of how obviously large and powerful Katrina was). The last significant hurricane to affect NOLA prior to Katrina was Betsy in 1965 -- that's a remarkable 40 year gap, and it's not surprising that the general public became complacent because of that prolonged lull in major hurricane frequency.

    Still though, even with that in mind, it should've been obvious to anyone what kind of a monster Katrina would be, especially due to its abnormally large size. Even if the storm had struck near, say, Gulf Shores eastward to Pensacola, NOLA would've still received tropical storm force gusts, and possibly even sustained tropical storm force winds.

    The point is (the earlier post of mine addressing Wayne about wanting a hurricane reminded me of this, and prompted me to make this post), that dare I say it is a bad thing if a major hurricane doesn't impact a given area for any longer than 10 years, because the majority become complacent, even though they shouldn't. The memory of prior storms alone should be enough to dissuade complacency and encourage appropriate action. Unfortunately, since this doesn't occur, hurricanes are worse than they otherwise could be in terms of fatalities and injuries. It's pretty pitiful that people are so stubborn that it takes multiple repeats of a given event for them to finally wake up -- some never do at all. I'm afraid that even if Wayne, as he so desires, gets hit by a hurricane, he will quickly forget the lesson taught to him by nature, and it will take another one, one that could possibly be worse than the one he's hoping for, to put him in the right direction.
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory
    TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI (CAT 2)
    19:00 PM NZDT March 13 2009
    ====================================

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Joni, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 27.0S 160.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots close to the center. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots.

    Storm Force Winds
    =================
    30 miles from the center

    Gale Force Winds
    ====================
    150 miles of center in the southeastern semi-circle
    60 miles of center in northwest semi-circle
    170. GBlet "Greetings from the "dustbowl"! Does anyone have any info on when we might get some moisture return here in Kansas? ...Could use a little long range info."

    La Nina conditions correlate with lower-than-normal precipitation in the SouthCentral region (including Kansas).
    This year, La Nina is expected to remain in place up to sometime between May and July. ie I wouldn't expect the drought to break anytime soon.


    273. aspectre 7:56 AM GMT on March 13, 2009 Hide this comment.
    170. GBlet "Greetings from the "dustbowl"! Does anyone have any info on when we might get some moisture return here in Kansas? ...Could use a little long range info."

    La Nina conditions correlate with lower-than-normal precipitation in the SouthCentral region (including Kansas).
    This year, La Nina is expected to remain in place up to sometime between May and July. ie I wouldn't expect the drought to break anytime soon.
    Action: Quote | Ignore User


    The Texas drought area has gotten several inches of rain in the past few day, and more rain is predicted for that area.
    I like when CNN has stories on droughts, its seems right after the stories are run, large amounts of moisture arrive.
    Example, Northern California, then they recieved several feet of snow.
    They ran a story about the horrible drought in Texas last week, now they are getting soakers.
    When I have a drought in my state, i'm contacting CNN to run a story about it, then it will rain.
    Hola - 62 degrees
    Same 'ol same 'ol... Continued blue skies and warmer with the Gulf mimicking a puddle! No ripples insight as we become more hungry for surf on the GC. Waves still fun East side with light winds and sunny skies. Looking farther into the crystal ball, doesn't look like any swell makers until possibly late next work week. Gulf Temp 65
    TRunck Moneky, put a word in for Florida, We're the Lady In Red.......don't want a hot flash.

    Small fires everywhere, after viewing those Aussies Videos - I'm very edgy. Not fun going to work out East of I75 in SWFL/SRQ and checking the wind - to decide which is the safest way out in case of fire.
    You're not alone GBlet.
    It is dry all over:


    2009 across the US is the driest ever


    When we look at the first two months of 2009 across the entire country, the precipitation numbers are staggering. January and February of 2009 are the driest start of any year since the USA began keeping records over a century ago, leading to severe drought in Texas and California, dipping reservoir levels in Florida and a surge in wildfires across the nation.

    Richard Heim, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center, said the 2.69-inch average rainfall across the U.S. in January and February is the least amount of moisture in those months since NOAA began keeping records in 1895.
    Link
    Vortfix,it is very noticable here that there has not been much precip. We only recieved 1 snowfall over 3 inches all winter. Very little rain, and when it does come, it is usually just storms, none of the all-day-rain events.
    When I was growing up I never could figure out why my dad talked so much about Hurricane Donna, but he did, all the time. It was 44 year between Donna and Charley, and although we had small storms, a few hurricanes brush the area, no direct hits. Then in 2004 Charley hit. And I get it know. Cause every time someone mentions about hurricanes not being so bad and wanting to stay for a major one I remind them about Charley, mainly just like my Dad used to talk to me about Donna. But during that time there were really only a few people left in the area who had been through Donna, so, yeah it's a learning process for most.
    Oh geesh I remember Donna!
    That one affected every state on the whole east coast if I remember correctly.
    I was a kid then but everyone here was all boarded up for that one.

    Here in SC, when we were taught state history, I do not remember storms as being part of the lessons. They should have been. Perhaps we would have a better appreciation of the possibility of storms, if we were taught the full history of these storms in our area - as part of history class. Think of the effect the Hurricane of 1893 (I think it was)- 2000 lives lost!. Why wouldn't that be taught along with other events that shaped the state?

    Then again, maybe it is my memory that is faulty LOL

    EDITED FOR CLARITY
    Anyone see any info on SAL forecasts for the upcoming season? Dr. M?
    Looks like we're about to join the 700 club. Along with about 7 other counties in the center of the state that have (modified for southern english coming out ;) has) fire index #'s in the 700's. We really need some rain.
    LinkDont know if this is relevant to the question on SAL this year. It's an Oct.2008 article on flooding in the Sahara...
    Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam

    Mirror Site



    Current Home weather station data.

    Sorry to get off topic, doing blog construction, anyone know how to center a blog pic?
    Thanks.

    Quoting tkeith:
    LinkDont know if this is relevant to the question on SAL this year. It's an Oct.2008 article on flooding in the Sahara...
    Quoting KEHCharleston:
    Does anyone know??

    Someone told me that even though you do not have a land line phone service, that in times of a declared emergency, a phone connected to land line jacks will work.
    I suspect that they are confusing the fact that their land line telephone will work even though electricity is out (assuming you are not using a remote phone system).


    Land lines work during outages only so long as the phone company site that powers your part of the network DOES have power (battery backup or generator).

    After Wilma, cell and landlines were up for several days until everyone ran out of gas for their generators. Landlines were out for the first time in my (long) memory.

    http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/question62.htm

    Quoting StormW:
    Thought some may be interested. Good article and graphics.

    I'm out.

    REGIONAL EFFECTS OF ENSO ON U.S. HURRICANE LANDFALLS


    Thanks for the link, that was indeed interesting reading.

    288. SunriseSteeda
    Will they work even though you have not signed up for service (land lines that is)?

    In other words, I have Bell South, if I discontinue Bell South, during declared emergencies would the land line work?
    Quoting bappit:


    LOL! Are the insurance companies really that slow?

    Since I visit BR from Houston, I may be desensitized to blue tarps. Come to think of it, I did see some tarps when I was there at Christmas. They are pretty much gone here in Houston. I got my shingles fixed without getting a blue tarp after Ike, i.e., the insurance didn't pay for it (deductible). Of course, losing shingles is nothing compared to recent blog pics of the Bolivar peninsula. I suspect Gustav left similar damage down by Grand Isle though I think its surge was smaller.


    I saw a blue tarp (in my development) yesterday, and I am west of Fort Lauderdale. I have noticed that some homeowners did NOT replace their roofs after Wilma. The one I saw may have been one that finally has to get the roof replaced.

    I just drove up 94th ave this morning in Sunrise (before reading this) and was noting the 2-3 houses that are still missing shingles from over 3 years ago.

    In fact, I just repaired some previously unnoticed damage from Hurricane Wilma while painting the 2nd story of my house a couple of weekends ago! (may explain why I continued to take on water in my walls after the new roof was installed in 06).
    Australia beaches 'disaster zone'
    .. The oil leak came from the Hong Kong registered ship, Pacific Adventurer, after it was damaged in stormy weather generated by tropical cyclone Hamish. The Sunshine Coast is one of Australia's most popular tourist destinations with several maj...



    Quoting vortfix:
    Oh geesh I remember Donna!
    That one affected every state on the whole east coast if I remember correctly.
    I was a kid then but everyone here was all boarded up for that one.



    Until I moved to Florida, I was too young to care much about hurricanes and tropical events. I was, prior to moving to this state, a central Georgia resident (A very small town called Gray, just outside of Macon -- and home of Otis Redding, the Allman Brothers, and the Old Clinton BBQ featured on Dirty Jobs).

    But even then, there was period from the end of the season in 1979 until the summer of 1980 in which I knew some storms by their names -- David, Frederick and Alan.

    David and Frederick caused us to have at least half a dozen episodes of tornado warnings while in school -- which meant piling into the hallway and sitting and tucking our heads. Was the first time I actually physically saw a tornado. The flooding washed out the bridge of the creek separating us from the main road. We had to bump over a couple of miles of cow pasture to get out, for several weeks!

    And then Alan cut short my vacation with friends in Panama City the next year.

    Anyway here are some snippets from the net on those storms:

    Hurricane David
    August 28, 1979
    Hurricane David was a powerful hurricane that cut a pathway across the Caribbean, eventually making landfall in the southeast United States. Hurricane David raked the island of Dominica before reaching its maximum strength and making the next landfall on the south coast of the Dominican Republic. Top sustained winds were 175 mph. Hurricane David was greatly weakened over the mountainous terrain of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, but started to restrengthen as it emerged off the coast of Haiti. David was moving directly toward Miami, then made a slight shift northwest only hours before hitting the coast. Hurricane David paralleled the east coast of Florida and finally moved inland on the coast of Georgia near Savannah.

    Hurricane Frederick
    September 12, 1979
    Hurricane Frederick followed closely on the heels of Hurricane David. Hurricane Frederick moved through the Leeward Islands as a tropical storm after a very brief stint as a hurricane east of the islands. In a similar manner, Frederick hit the Dominican Republic. Frederick made landfall as a tropical storm very near where Hurricane David came ashore only days before. Frederick continued westward near Cuba in a weakened state then started to strengthen it it turned northward. Frederick intensified before making its last landfall at Dauphin Island Alabama. Top winds were estimated at 135 mph.

    Hurricane Allen
    August 8, 1980
    Hurricane Allen at the time, was the second strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin. At it's strongest, top sustained winds were 190 mph with a central pressure of 899 millibars. This was only the second time that a hurricane pressure was measured this low. Since then, Allen has dropped to the fifth lowest pressure with Hurricane Wilma, the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Rita all surpassing it.


    J
    Quoting KEHCharleston:
    288. SunriseSteeda
    Will they work even though you have not signed up for service (land lines that is)?

    In other words, I have Bell South, if I discontinue Bell South, during declared emergencies would the land line work?


    That is a good question. I do not know the answer, however.

    I imagine it would depend on how "discontinued service" is actually defined these days.

    If you are shut off merely by software (i.e., BellSouth can control/automate it local to them, and just not send you any juice) then it would be at least feasible.

    However if discontinuing service entails manual disconnection, whether at your site, or at a substation local to you, then I doubt you'd have storm service regardless of your subscription to the landline or not!