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Nation digs out from massive blizzard; Cyclone Yasi rips through Australia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:05 PM GMT on February 03, 2011

Chicago's third worst snowstorm on record is history, leaving in its wake a remarkable 20.2” of snow, snowdrifts up to ten feet high, and frigid below zero temperatures. Only the January 2 - 4 1999 blizzard (21.6") and January 2 – 4, 1967 blizzard (23”) dumped more snow on Chicago. The Groundhog's Day blizzard of 2011 had stronger winds than either of Chicago's other two record snowstorms, and thus was probably the worst snowstorm ever to affect the city, as far as impacts on travel go. Winds gusted as high as 61 mph at Chicago's O'Hare Airport, and winds at the Chicago buoy, 10 miles offshore in Lake Michigan, reached sustained speeds of 54 mph, gusting to 66 mph. Fortunately, Lake Michigan had so much ice on it that crashing waves were unable to cause significant flooding along the lake shore.

Chicago's 10 biggest Snowstorms:

1. 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967
2. 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999
3. 20.2 inches Feb 1-2, 2011
4. 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930
5. 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979
6. 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931
7. 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929
8. 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939
9. 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918
10. 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970


Figure 1. A bus jack knifed on Lake Shore Drive in downtown Chicago on the night of February 1, 2011 during intense blizzard conditions, resulting in a dangerous situation where hundreds of cars became stranded behind the bus. Image credit: Viewer uploaded photo from WGN.

The most remarkable feature of this storm was its sheer size. Twenty-two states received snows of five inches or more, and over 100 million Americans experienced snow or freezing rain. Antioch, Illinois recorded the most snow of any location in the U.S., 27 inches. Also hard-hit were Missouri, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, and Vermont, which all reported more than eighteen inches of snow. Seven states reported freezing rain that left 1/2” or more of ice accumulation, which resulted in power outages affecting hundreds of thousands of people.

The strength of the high pressure system behind the Groundhog's Day Blizzard of 2011 was also remarkable. Pressure readings in Montana at the height of the blizzard were well above 1050 mb, the type of high pressure only seen once every twenty years or so in the U.S. The difference in pressure between this high and the mighty blizzard drove a flood of cold air southwards out of Canada, creating the very high winds that shut down road travel over most of the Midwest during the height of the storm. The unusually strong push of cold air southwards has caused major problems in northern Texas, which is unused to multi-day periods of below-freezing temperatures. Many power plants were knocked off-line by the severe weather, and record electricity demand has overwhelmed the electrical system, resulting in widespread rotating blackouts. A rare Southeast Texas snowstorm is expected today, due to a new storm system moving eastwards across the state. Houston is expecting 1 – 3 inches of snow through Friday. All flights leaving Houston between 3pm today and noon Friday have been canceled, because the airports have no de-icing fluid.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi hits Queensland, Australia
Tropical Cyclone Yasi roared inland over Queensland, Australia at 12:30am local time on Thursday as a strengthening Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds and a 930 mb central pressure. The cyclone missed the most populous cities on the coast, Cairns and Townsville, which experienced wind gusts to about 60 mph. Undoubtedly, tremendous wind damage occurred in the small towns of Tully, Mission Beach, and Bingal Bay where the eye passed. A storm surge of 5 meters (16 feet) was observed at Cardwell, and 3 meters (10 feet) at Clump Point. Townsville received a 2.5 meter storm surge that damaged some sea walls. This was the highest storm surge observed since 1971 there.


Figure 2. Pressure readings from Clump Point on the Queensland, Australia coast during passage of Yasi bottomed out at 930 mb as the storm passed overhead. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

According to an email I received from Blair Trewin of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, ”Yasi is almost certainly the most intense landfall in Queensland since at least 1918, and possibly since 1899. In 1918 there were two cyclones (at Mackay and Innisfail) with measured pressures in the upper 920s/low 930s but it is quite plausible that the minimum central pressures were lower than that. The 1899 (Mahina/Bathurst Bay) cyclone had a measured pressure (ship near shore) of 914 mb.” However, the number of major tropical cyclones along the Queensland coast has declined since the 1870s, according to recent paper by Callaghan and Power (2010). They found that ”the number of severe TCs making land-fall over eastern Australia declined from about 0.45 TCs/year in the early 1870s to about 0.17 TCs/year in recent times—a 62% decline. This decline can be partially explained by a weakening of the Walker Circulation, and a natural shift towards a more El Niño-dominated era. The extent to which global warming might be also be partially responsible for the decline in land-falls—if it is at all—is unknown.”

References
Callaghan, J. and S. Power, (2010): Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0883-2


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 03:35 UTC February 2, 2011, as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Jeff Masters
Yasi Damage Tully Nth Qld
Yasi Damage Tully Nth Qld
Butler St Tully Nth Qld
making a path for the dogs
It'sANewDay!..1
It'sANewDay!..1
peeking thru a skylight at the new day dawning..about 16 inches of new powder..now about 4 feet on the ground..really beautiful!

Winter Weather Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments



... Houston Winter Storm Warning in effect from noon today to noon CST Friday...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Winter Storm Warning for snow... sleet and freezing rain... which
is in effect from noon today to noon CST Friday. The Winter Storm
Watch is no longer in effect.

An upper level storm system approaching from the west will
combine with increasing moisture and cold temperatures in the
lower atmosphere to generate a mix of snow... sleet... and freezing
rain across southeast Texas this afternoon through Friday
morning. The precipitation is expected to begin during the early
afternoon near the coast... and spread area wide by evening. The
wintry mix will continue Thursday night then taper off late
morning Friday.
Nice update. Those "accordion" CTA buses used primary downtown and within the first couple concentric circles of the city are made for handling sharper turns more efficiently. However, when they jack knife like a truck, it's messy.
"...This decline can be partially explained by a weakening of the Walker Circulation..."

Sounds like a good subject for a future blog post.

Nature article (behind paywall):

Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing


Abstract:

Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east–west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean—driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east — known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.
It was indeed a bit of an odd storm in Vermont, as it was snowing heavily when it was as cold as 9F... from my admittedly limited experience that is quite cold for significant snow here. We've got around a foot of snow or a bit more, on top of about 2 inches two days ago and a foot or so from previous storms. Two more smallish storms in the forecast.. we're working on quite a snowpack!
Scotland preparing for Hurricane force winds with incoming Winter Gale.




Weather forecasters have warned that wind speeds could reach 80mph as gales batter parts of Scotland.

The Met Office issued a severe weather warning for the Western Isles, Shetland, the south west and parts of Ayrshire.

All schools on the Western Isles have closed early and public transport services will be reduced, the islands council said.

Overnight ferry sailings to and from Shetland have also been cancelled.

The Scottish Environment Protection Agency has also issued flood alerts, with up to 50mm of rain expected in some parts in the next 48 hours.

The stormy conditions have resulted in the Hrossey, from Aberdeen, and the Hjaltland, which was due to leave Lerwick for Aberdeen via Orkney, being cancelled.

The shipping forecast has also warned of possible hurricane force 12 winds for the Hebrides. Gusts of 63mph have already been recorded in Tiree and at South Uist.

According to the Met Office, there could be up to 60mm of rain in the west of the country and higher levels in the coming days.

They have joined the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (Sepa) to ensure co-ordination over possible flood risks.
winter precip def near FL.

hmmph. Waste of a lunch hour.
Is it usually this cold down here in Arlington, TX? Locals are saying this is like Chicago weather. Sure glad the roof will be closed in Jerry Jones's Palace for the game!
NBC news this morning reported TC Yasi had maximum wind speeds of 200mph when it made landfall in Queensland, AU. I wonder if that was right? The history of that storm doesn't show that strength.

Anyway, my thoughts and prayers are with the folks down under. They've had enough already.
Pat, GetReal, you guys seeing any snow/frozen stuff this morning?
A few Spritz of Slain and ,,well.


Were in Cautious Mode.
Quoting Floodman:
Pat, GetReal, you guys seeing any snow/frozen stuff this morning?


It is looking interesting... But there isn't much of anything yet making it to the surface...
Quoting Floodman:
Pat, GetReal, you guys seeing any snow/frozen stuff this morning?
On the northshore, very light, 95% rain 5% sleet.

Heard about icy bridges from LaPlace to BR and I-55 north of Hammond on the radio.

EDIT: I'd not be surprised if it isn't more froze-precip up towards Washington Parish, but I have no confirmed info.
This still doesn't compare with the January 1949 blizzard in intensity and length of the storm. I was seven years old then, and there were no interstates. Dad (US Army) had been reassigned from Washington DC to Seattle, Washington. It took us most of that month in our 1941 Chevrolet, following snowplows and mounting, dismounting, and repairing snow chains to travel across the country from Columbus, Ohio to Seattle.
Complete Update





Quoting RRunner:
This still doesn't compare with the January 1949 blizzard in intensity and length of the storm. I was seven years old then, and there were no interstates. Dad (US Army) had been reassigned from Washington DC to Seattle, Washington. It took us most of that month in our 1941 Chevrolet, following snowplows and mounting, dismounting, and repairing snow chains to travel across the country from Columbus, Ohio to Seattle.
That sounds like an adventure.
;-)
Quoting RickWPB:
NBC news this morning reported TC Yasi had maximum wind speeds of 200mph when it made landfall in Queensland, AU. I wonder if that was right? The history of that storm doesn't show that strength.

Anyway, my thoughts and prayers are with the folks down under. They've had enough already.


That was a gust.

The official strength was equivalent of a strong category 4 on Saffir-Simpson, with sustained 155mph and gusts 190mph at landfall, HOWEVER, there were some "unofficial" products, based on satellite, showing the storm had sustained as high as 141kts and pressure of sub-900mb.

There were MANY raw data points which were in the Dvorak 7.0 to 7.5 range.



We can see here Colorado State even had it classified as a Category 5 SS storm, with sustained over 160mph. This data point was at landfall, plus or minus a few minutes.


Near 900 for pressure

and

Sub 900 pressure, but weakening winds

Even with the +1.9 basin adjustment, and assuming a margin of error of +15mb, that would have still made Yasi a 915 mb storm.

This was raw data, but gee, what do I believe?

Assuming the instrument isn't broken, raw data is real. Classifications are arbitrary.
Quoting RRunner:
This still doesn't compare with the January 1949 blizzard in intensity and length of the storm. I was seven years old then, and there were no interstates. Dad (US Army) had been reassigned from Washington DC to Seattle, Washington. It took us most of that month in our 1941 Chevrolet, following snowplows and mounting, dismounting, and repairing snow chains to travel across the country from Columbus, Ohio to Seattle.
That must be the same year my mother traveled from Norfolk to Toledo for Easter and she said it snowed. She stated it took them all day to get out of Pittsburgh because of the ice on the roads and the steep hills. Imagine doing that with 2 small children in the car.
Greetings from the frozen tundra of North TX (AKA-DFW, TX) :D

Yesterday was a wonderful 13/20F, averaging 17F of exactly 30F below normal, setting a new minimum high for 2-1. Records go back to 1898.

Stuck in the house since early Tuesday. Missed work on Tu, might not go in today, as SH 360 in Arlington, TX is a solid sheet of ice from I-20 to Division Street.

Temps are a balmy 17F, W/C +5F. Expecting a daytime high of between 22-25F in Arlington, with a dusting of snow tonight and tomorrow :D
Is this legit?

Quoting Floodman:
Pat, GetReal, you guys seeing any snow/frozen stuff this morning?


Sleet in Algiers around 4:30 this morning, the plinking on my metal awnings woke me up. Since then, not much except for some very light rain.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Is this legit?


At first glance, that looked like ground clutter to me. However, as soon as I zoomed out and looked at the entire state, it didn't look so much like ground clutter anymore. Still though, there aren't any obs of snow in the area. Maybe it's virga?

Quoting RitaEvac:
Is this legit?


Ground clutter it appears.
We have icicles here on the north shore in Louisiana. Well, at least on the corner of a metal shed. The house doesn't because it's too warm.
Thanks for sharing those astonishing pictures, Aussie.

Area forecast discussion...updated for mesoscale update
National Weather Service Jackson MS
933 am CST Thursday Feb 3 2011


..complex winter weather episode developing for the arklamiss...


Mesoscale update...precipitation continues to gradually expand
across the forecast area this morning. Satellite clearly shows a
wave coming across eastern Texas with ascent increasing ahead of it.
New NAM appears underdone with this feature and associated quantitative precipitation forecast given
expanding precipitation areas on radar. Temperatures are in the middle 20s over
much of the area...except upper 20s to lower 30s in the southeast.
Surface wetbulb freezing line is well south of the area...and solid
overcast has overspread the area with weak to moderate cold air
advection continuing. So seems clear that precipitation will be all
of the winter variety today.


Southeast areas definitely appear to be initially under the gun as
precipitation is increasing in coverage and intensity there and upstream.
Area soundings and RUC/laps indicate that precipitation in the I-59
corridor would be primarily a mix of freezing rain and sleet. Expect
conditions to continue to deteriorate there with temperatures below
freezing with bridges and overpasses becoming an issue. Am growing
more concerned about areas farther to the north getting into the
precipitation earlier than forecast as precipitation is continuing
to expand across much of la. Precpitation area developing over
central la would move toward Jan metropolitan if it continues to develop.
May need to speed up some warnings if trends continue. Will udpate
grids to get precipitation in the forecast sooner. It is actually possible
that we could get a break in precipitation later today and evening over parts
of the area after this initial wave of activity moves through...
before the more widespread and heavier activity overnight. In the
areas along and northwest of the Natchez trace...forecast soundings
indicate that most precpitation today will be a combo of snow and
sleet.


We will be issuing updated Special Weather Statement products and graphicasts every 1-2
hours to keep people abreast of short term trends in the wintry
precipitation. /Aeg/

Chicago Snow pics

one of many from that Photo Gallery.

36. JRRP
Report of snizzle on someones windshield in my area. Not quite snow not quite drizzle
He could of been smoking wizzle though, whatever that means
nizzle, shnizzle, wizzle, snizzle, Snoop Dog in tha house
Aussie,

Thank you for sharing those heart wrenching photos... Thoughts & prayers for our Aussie friends.
I'm sad to see the destruction, Australia is such a beautiful country - I know the people will pull together and over come this hardship.

Peace Be With You...
41. JRRP
Quoting AussieStorm:





omg
Quoting AussieStorm:










Aussie, what are some good charities to donate to for relieve over there?
Aussie, our thoughts are with your neighbors in the north that have suffered so much...

How are you doing? Your reporting was very good, but I'm afraid you may be a bit worn out
WOW! Thoughts are with you and yours Aussie...
45. IKE
12Z GFS @ 192 hours....a blast of winter......


Floodman is listening to:



It's going to be a Genesis sort of day, I fear
Hmmm...the new format doesn't allow for youtube embedment?
48. IKE

Quoting Floodman:
Hmmm...the new format doesn't allow for youtube embedment?
Old format didn't either....not in the last 1-2 months.
Okay, then Floodman is listening to:

Squonk
My thoughts and prayers are with the Australian people. Unfortunately, the pictures are very familiar. AussieStorm, be aware that there will be survivors guilt in the communities that did not get a lot of damage. It happened to us here in Key West after Hurricane Andrew. Some became so wrapped up in helping Homestead that they lost their businesses. It can be debilitating. Hopefully they will realize there was no fault in any of it and they will motivate themselves to help the less fortunate as they can. For the people who suffered damage and loss, in time they will think of it as a new beginning and perhaps a god send. I think the proper charity to give to for Australia is the Internationl Red Cross, indicating the funds are for relief of TC Yasi.
Quoting IKE:

Old format didn't either....not in the last 1-2 months.
My IT person says that there is a lot of viruses on Youtube and has it blocked by our Sonic Wall.
One cant use the YouTube I-Frame Embed here,,or many places.

You have to use the old EMBED code and default it on the YouTube Page.

54. IKE

Quoting kwgirl:
My IT person says that there is a lot of viruses on Youtube and has it blocked by our Sonic Wall.
Interesting and not surprising. Thanks.

45.0 outside here and cloudy.
Quoting IKE:

Old format didn't either....not in the last 1-2 months.


Well, damn! Makes sense though...we did tend to get a little out of hand
Incredible pics,Aussie,like others,my prayers are with you and all those effected.I heard on the news no deaths have been reported,but I'm sure that is early reports.
57. IKE

Quoting Floodman:


Well, damn! Makes sense though...we did tend to get a little out of hand
True.
Apparently Rumors are like ,,viruses.

LOL
Quoting kwgirl:
My IT person says that there is a lot of viruses on Youtube and has it blocked by our Sonic Wall.
Quoting kwgirl:
My IT person says that there is a lot of viruses on Youtube and has it blocked by our Sonic Wall.


Your IT person is wrong...
Quoting IKE:

True.


We had fun though, huh?
Quoting Patrap:
Apparently Rumors are like ,,viruses.

LOL


LOL...rumour has it you're right
Hiya folks,

Hey GR,
Viewing those radar images, I'm guessing ya might want to reset your base reflectivity to it's lowest elevation, otherwise the setting used is picking up too much aloft, exaggerating the extent esp since most of this precip since yesterday has originated in the mid levels... Pretty sure we're about done with frzn precip chances for most of us below the northshore, arcing in a line, say E of Morgan City-Patterson... Meanwhile keep an eye on Lake Charles NWS office's reports today - already filling up with frz ra - icing / sleet / snow... as primary precip bands have shifted WWD from us... Saw some overpasses on Hwy 90 have closed to icing, and imagine a trip up I49 across Cen LA will get treacherous in time...

Last night's precip here in Terrebonne was about a 70-30 rain-sleet mix that went to all rain... Local temps have held steady above freezing (33 low / 34 at AgCenter, while KHUM has been stuck on 36F)... Saw an incredible sight in the clouds around midnight as precip cleared out - was left with partial clearing / stars vis in between with what appeared to be fat icy cirrus streaks in the SW flow, except they were much lower about half the typical height, in the mid levels at maybe 15-18K feet...

PS: Aussie, wow what a mess, esp with the one repeated disaster after another of late in your country... I agree with Foxx, all of us on the Gulf coast have deep sympathy for the misery y'all have suffered from... Best wishes on your recovery...
wow :( Nice shot!labels=1
labels=1
Try this again:

Floodman is NOW listening to:



Thanks, Pat...when it comes to embeds and posts (among other things), you're the man!
66. JRRP
I can not imagine driving Houston highways with ANY amount of ice/snow, no matter how small. The exits will go up at an obscene angle and cross back over the highway. When I visited, I said you can tell it never snows here, this would be impassible.....
Ooofh,


Great Obs Doc,..

Sounds like we was there.

Was tinkling and plinking around here some last night.

That warm layer is close and the freezing wedge is as well.



Those images Aussie posted are yet another testament to good construction vs. poor construction techniques. Similar to what we witnessed when Wilma crossed over S FL. with most of the damage being done to the older buildings and very little to those built to the newer codes. Seems there is evidence of tornado activity in some of those also.

If interested

http://www.miamidade.gov/buildingcode/library/codecompliance/2006%20Wilma%20Report.pdf
Quoting largeeyes:
I can not imagine driving Houston highways with ANY amount of ice/snow, no matter how small. The exits will go up at an obscene angle and cross back over the highway. When I visited, I said you can tell it never snows here, this would be impassible.....
LOL...Yep, you hit the nail on the head. We get the same sort of effect when it rains. I've lived here 35 years and the locals drive like idiots when it;s raining cats and dogs (often). Slow down? "Why heck, I'll just barrel on thru with my 3 ton pickup truck and push everyone out of the way. Thats what I got that big gate bumper on the front end fer". (Even though that "gate bumper" has never pushed open a gate, and the pickup is used only to cruise the streets and go to the grocery store).
Quoting AussieStorm:








its all good aussie everything i have seen can be replaced or repaired lives cannot

any word as to the status of willis island is it even still there
Hey GR, there ya go, bud!

Howdy Pat,
LOL, yeah... glad we had the lil taste yesterday with the light sleet and flurries... Was kinda sad last night when my "tink tink" went over to the dull thud of simple rain drops, but will not miss the freezing rain aspect at all! Saw enough of that back in the Christmas '04 event, with about a good day of it until changed over to snow at the end - tree limbs were doing some serious dangling from the ice, plenty of road overpasses were, lol, impassable...

Once again another Winter precip event so close and yet so far from SE LA... Good example why when mentioning any southern snowfall, esp accumulating snow over coastal SE LA is bigger rarity than Dallas-Shreveport-Atlanta, or even say, Houston-Lafayette-Baton Rouge-Slidell with our immediate moderating maritime influence... A few short miles really makes a diff...

LOL, oh well, one of these days... ;)
Quoting Floodman:


Your IT person is wrong...


I think what his IT person meant to say was "You slackers watch too much LOLcats and piss off company time on youtube, so some beancounter that writes my check had me block it."

I do IT stuff for companies and it's pretty common to see it get blocked for that reason. Now facebook and myspace are where the viruses seem to show up from.
Quoting Floodman:


Your IT person is wrong...
Well, let me put it another way, the excuse he gives for us not being able to go on Youtube is that it is full of viruses. You know how it is, security to protect our system and disabling things so we HAVE to work. LOL.
Quoting kwgirl:
Well, let me put it another way, the excuse he gives for us not being able to go on Youtube is that it is full of viruses. You know how it is, security to protect our system and disabling things so we HAVE to work. LOL.


Sorry, kwgirl...I didn;t mean to come across as strident, and I think you and SafeInTexas are right: it's the reason the IT guy is giving to "end users"

In addition, the definition of "computer virus" has gotten pretty loose...
But I can't survive a day at work without LOLcats!!!
Quoting hcubed:
...
Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed...

Kind of terra-centric given that the majority of warming has occurred in ocean waters. GW is more of a hydro-centric phenomenon.
Quoting JRRP:
JOY, another 1041 MB High parked over OK on Thur of next week :D
Quoting RitaEvac:
Report of snizzle on someones windshield in my area. Not quite snow not quite drizzle

Snizzle= light snow flurries mixed with drizzle.

DFW, TX has 0.9 inches of "slop"=freezing rain, sleet and snow.

Stuck in my house.SH 360 from I-20 to Division St is an ice skating rink :(
Quoting Floodman:


LOL...rumour has it you're right

Happy Birthday Flood. Stuck at home in SE Arlington, TX with my family from Nashville, TN.

SH 360 and many overpasses are ice skating rinks. Stuck home for the 2nd day off work. Love my job, however, I don't wanna get killed in a car wreck either.
Quoting kwgirl:
Well,..... to protect our system and disabling things so we HAVE to work. LOL.


That's what you are paid for, isn't it?
bord- thank you for staying home, and staying SAFE
Happy Birthday to you ,..Floodman



When the world was young
LONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters) – Australia’s floods could cause total
economic losses of up to $20.2 billion, making them the costliest
natural disaster in the country’s history, reinsurance broker Aon
Benfield said on Thursday.

http://www.reuters.com/ article/ 2011/ 02/ 03/ australia-floods aon-idUSLDE71226920110203
HAPPY BIRTHDAY JERRY!!!!!!!!!!!

:)
Quoting Floodman:


Sorry, kwgirl...I didn;t mean to come across as strident, and I think you and SafeInTexas are right: it's the reason the IT guy is giving to "end users"

In addition, the definition of "computer virus" has gotten pretty loose...
Happy One Billionth or whatever the heck it is....:)
Quoting Floodman:
Try this again:

Floodman is NOW listening to:



Thanks, Pat...when it comes to embeds and posts (among other things), you're the man!


ya, that old genesis is really good........i like phil collins pre-genesis too.....some rockin' stuff..
Still some moisture moving into the gulf from the Caribbean Sea...
Quoting Floodman:
Try this again:

Floodman is NOW listening to:



Thanks, Pat...when it comes to embeds and posts (among other things), you're the man!

Are you listening to paradise radio........because, strangely enough.....that song just came on......weird...


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LA INTO E-CNTRL LA AND CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 031858Z - 040000Z

MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EXPECTED. FREEZING RAIN RATES COULD
REACH 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL AND E-CNTRL MS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SERN LOUISIANA DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

AN ELONGATED ZONE OF LOW/MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE 16Z RUN OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
DEPICTS THE CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION WELL...WITH THE
MORE CONCENTRATED/INTENSE ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN LA/MS SHIFTING NEWD
ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL MS TOWARD KJAN AND KMEI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THIS REGION...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE
ELEVATED WARM NOSE FROM 3-5C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
ALOFT TO MELT BEFORE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...WHERE WET-BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. LIQUID-
EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MS LATER
THIS EVENING...THE STRENGTH OF THE ANTECEDENT COLD AIR MASS COULD
PREVENT THIS FROM OCCURRING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS. THERMAL
PROFILES FROM THE RUC SUGGEST THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE COOLER
IN THIS REGION WITH MORE OF A SLEET/SNOW POTENTIAL.

SCOTLAND was battered by a triple whammy of
hurricane-strength winds, torrential rain and driving snow today forcing
the closure of schools and causing problems on roads and
communications.
The far north and north west bore the brunt of the weather as the storm tore in from the Atlantic this morning,
One amateur weather station at Ness on the Isle of Lewis recorded a
Hurricane gust of 91mph with more heavy weather expected tonight.
Schools and many businesses in the Western Isles closed at lunchtime to prepare for the high winds and heavy rains.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2011/02/03/hurricane-force-winds-batter-scotland-86 908-22896855/
Quoting aquak9:
bord- thank you for staying home, and staying SAFE

Thanks. Tomorrow I have to go to work :(..

Just as our "surprise snowstorm" is beginning to wind up over SE NM and old Mexico.
SPC Mesoscale Analysis

Click Freezing Level on the Winter drop down Menu

Fluffy....
Quoting DEKRE:


That's what you are paid for, isn't it?
True and they get every penny plus!
91B has kinda been stalled over Sri Lanka for a few days now, slowly organizing. After absolutely horrific flooding in mid January, affecting more than 1 million & killing dozens~ it is happening again. 3 dead & 43,000 flooded out so far this round.

Thanks for the reminder skyepony.


Sad indeed.
Sad, highway accidents all OVER the DFW Metroplex. Attached link to KVTV CH 11 DFW, TX Road Conditions Link
Pat~ Looks like my tree farm is getting the brunt of southern MS ice storm.
Quoting Floodman:


Sorry, kwgirl...I didn;t mean to come across as strident, and I think you and SafeInTexas are right: it's the reason the IT guy is giving to "end users"

In addition, the definition of "computer virus" has gotten pretty loose...


Hey Flood, Happy Happy Birthday to ya and many more.
Hey does anyone think LA Alabama will see anymore sleet or anything like that? It was neat yesterday. It's as cold as Ice right know. My poor bones are shaking.
sheri
Should anyone have noticed:

*Topic: *GOES-11(West) Image lost

*Date/Time**:*February 03, 2011 1205 UTC *

*Product(s) or Data Impacted:*2352z Southern Hemisphere

*Date/Time of Initial Impact: *February 02, 2011 2352 UTC**

*Date/Time of Expected End:*February 02, 2011 2359 UTC****

*Length of Outage:*7 minutes*

*Details/Specifics of Change:* ESPC was informed by SOCC that the GOES-11 2352z
Southern Hemisphere was missed due to equipment problems at Wallops CDA.
We watching it all almost in real time skye.

Lotsa damage going to hit the strawberry farmers and the other early fruit crops.

Lotsa stress on the animals I Imagine as well.

That Low is going to take a day to form,,glide up and kick on up and away too.

Nola Roux was interesting to watch as she saw & heard Moderate Sleet on Tin Roofs and Slate for the first time.

Dog Tilt to Speaker mode.

Aruuumph..?



Not to quibble with semantics, but it's not possible for a one-piece automobile like a bus to "jack knife". Only semi's or cars towing trailers can jack knife.
Quoting FriendlyPrimate:
Not to quibble with semantics, but it's not possible for a one-piece automobile like a bus to "jack knife". Only semi's or cars towing trailers can jack knife.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articulated_bus
Quoting FriendlyPrimate:
Not to quibble with semantics, but it's not possible for a one-piece automobile like a bus to "jack knife". Only semi's or cars towing trailers can jack knife.

It isn't a one piece bus. It's a bus composed of two different sections that are separated by a heavy duty rubber-like substance that enables the bus to stretch, twist, and maneuver around turns. In Chicago, the slang term for these buses are called accordion buses, because the rubber part or whatever material used to separate the two passenger compartments resemble an accordion. That's how it can jack knife. It is very similar to a tracker-trailer 18 wheeler tandem truck that has two truck compartments sitting on one chassis.
Quoting kwgirl:
My IT person says that there is a lot of viruses on Youtube and has it blocked by our Sonic Wall.


I've worked in IT for over 20 years and have yet to contract or see a virus contracted from YouTube. Not quite sure how you're gonna get a virus from playing a YouTube video. There really isn't any way to push a payload down onto a PC as far as I know. I think your IT person may just be saying that to deter you from visiting YouTube, which is not work related. Just a guess though...

Sorry...I was behind on this one...just catching up! DOH!
Quoting FriendlyPrimate:
Not to quibble with semantics, but it's not possible for a one-piece automobile like a bus to "jack knife". Only semi's or cars towing trailers can jack knife


O'Hare airport continuing to report precip---I think snow must be blowing into their rain gauge! When do you think they'll strip those false precip readings out?

Quoting cat5hurricane:

It isn't a one piece bus. It's a bus composed of two different sections that are separated by a heavy duty rubber-like substance that enables the bus to stretch, twist, and maneuver around turns. In Chicago, the slang term for these buses are called accordion buses, because the rubber part or whatever material used to separate the two passenger compartments resemble an accordion. That's how it can jack knife. It is very similar to a tracker-trailer 18 wheeler tandem truck that has two truck compartments sitting on one chassis.



Like this one?

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:




Now you are annoying me. You beat me to it with the accordian bus. HA
The still must be getting a lot of rain on the Northern coast.

Quoting Grothar:


Now you are annoying me. You beat me to it with the accordian bus. HA


Haha, yours looks better than mine, Gro ;-)
I applied for the first time for a job in meteorology ... hopefully I get it
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Haha, yours looks better than mine, Gro ;-)


But yours is more In situ for the topic at hand.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I applied for the first time for a job in meteorology ... hopefully I get it
Good luck to you.
Dear Floodman,

Happy happy birthday to you!

Hello everyone,

long time since I checked in here..
hope all is well and staying warm ...


and good luck to everyone in the other bad weather situations around the Globe...


Quoting hurricanejunky:


I've worked in IT for over 20 years and have yet to contract or see a virus contracted from YouTube. Not quite sure how you're gonna get a virus from playing a YouTube video. There really isn't any way to push a payload down onto a PC as far as I know. I think your IT person may just be saying that to deter you from visiting YouTube, which is not work related. Just a guess though...

Sorry...I was behind on this one...just catching up! DOH!
No Problem HJ. I have been in and out as well and I have some catching up as well. Happy Birthday Floodman! Us Aquarians need to stick together. :)
Quoting twincomanche:
I am astounded that people can quibble about articulated buses on this blog. Is it not possible for you all to grow up?


At least one person learned something from it. What sort of educative material have you posted lately?
I see that it is just about time to be signing out, the trolls are popping up. Been fun today. See you all tomorrow. Have a good night
Yes happy B-day Flood! Have a great one brother!
Quoting Neapolitan:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articulated_bus


HE qualified it by saying "one-piece"...articulated buses were not his intent and he was clear about that
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


At least one person learned something from it. What sort of educative material have you posted lately?


That was my first post of the day so none.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Hey Flood, Happy Happy Birthday to ya and many more.
Hey does anyone think LA Alabama will see anymore sleet or anything like that? It was neat yesterday. It's as cold as Ice right know. My poor bones are shaking.
sheri


Thanks, Sheri! Aside from freezing, how are you?
Quoting seflagamma:
Dear Floodman,

Happy happy birthday to you!

Hello everyone,

long time since I checked in here..
hope all is well and staying warm ...


and good luck to everyone in the other bad weather situations around the Globe...




Thank you darlin! How are you guys holding up?
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Yes happy B-day Flood! Have a great one brother!


Thanks, man! Well on it's way to being a great one!
YO! Flood! Happy Birthday. See you're trying to catch up with me. Don't over-celebrate, now.
Quoting kwgirl:
No Problem HJ. I have been in and out as well and I have some catching up as well. Happy Birthday Floodman! Us Aquarians need to stick together. :)


Yes we do, hon...so many "non-Aquarians" out there...
Quoting Grothar:
YO! Flood! Happy Birthday. See you're trying to catch up with me. Don't over-celebrate, now.


Gro, my brother, that is a race you will always win **bows deeply**

I always "respect" my elders...LOL

Thanks, by the way...the over celebration is supposed to happen tomorrow night
Happy birthday Flood! All the best from stormy Wales. I hope you are alright in Texas without getting the party spoiled by a snowstorm.
Quoting Floodman:


Gro, my brother, that is a race you will always win **bows deeply**

I always "respect" my elders...LOL

Thanks, by the way...the over celebration is supposed to happen tomorrow night


Uh-oh! Guess we won't be seeing you on for a few days, then. Glücklicher Geburtstag mein Freund.
Quoting taistelutipu:
Happy birthday Flood! All the best from stormy Wales. I hope you are alright in Texas without getting the party spoiled by a snowstorm.


I actually ordered the snow (sorry everyone)...

Thanks, Edith...keep up the running (and styay safe)!
Quoting Grothar:


Uh-oh! Guess we won't be seeing you on for a few days, then. Glücklicher Geburtstag mein Freund.


Vielen dank! I'll be around...maybe...
Quoting taistelutipu:
Happy birthday Flood! All the best from stormy Wales. I hope you are alright in Texas without getting the party spoiled by a snowstorm.


Hey, How are you. Was going to leave a message for you about the weather over there. How did Scotland do. Did you get any of that nasty weather?
Whats the GFS showing now for next week?
Quoting Floodman:


HE qualified it by saying "one-piece"...articulated buses were not his intent and he was clear about that


1st: Happy Birthday!

He said "it's not possible for a one-piece automobile like a bus to jack knife"

True.

The caption on the pic was "A bus jack knifed on Lake Shore Drive..."

The way I see is that he assumed the bus in question was one unit, and articulated buses were not his intent because he didn't know they existed.

He also stated that "Only semi's or cars towing trailers can jack knife"

Not true.

Whatchya think, TwinC? ;-)



Quoting Floodman:


I actually ordered the snow (sorry everyone)...

Thanks, Edith...keep up the running (and styay safe)!


Fair enough, you don't get snow that often in Texas. And a party with a snowball fight or something similar is certainly a highlight *lol*
Ich wünsche dann haufenweise Geburtstagsschnee!

I was running today but the gales nearly blew me off the pier; after 4 rounds I decided I had enough and ran home. A weather station a few miles to the East of my location reported gusts up to 65 mph a few hours ago. On the plus side, it's rather warm for this time of the year with highs around 50F.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Whats the GFS showing now for next week?


.
GFS continuing to advertise a winter weather event for the Deep South:


Quoting Grothar:




Seems like an outlier to me ;-)
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


1st: Happy Birthday!

He said "it's not possible for a one-piece automobile like a bus to jack knife"

True.

The caption on the pic was "A bus jack knifed on Lake Shore Drive..."

The way I see is that he assumed the bus in question was one unit, and articulated buses were not his intent because he didn't know they existed.

He also stated that "Only semi's or cars towing trailers can jack knife"

Not true.

Whatchya think, TwinC? ;-)





On the face of it, he was semantically correct; without the photo I would have had to snort over that one...
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Whats the GFS showing now for next week?


.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Seems like an outlier to me ;-)



No, I think it is mostly in the United States.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, How are you. Was going to leave a message for you about the weather over there. How did Scotland do. Did you get any of that nasty weather?


It's quite rough over here but Scotland gets the worst part of the gales and the heavy rain. Some places in the Highlands have sustained winds of 60 mph and gusts up to 99 mph. It's going to be a wet and windy weekend for us.

I'll spend quite some time inside, I reckon. I'm looking forward to the 6 nations rugby games on the weekend and - of course - the Super Bowl. I hope the BBC provides a live stream like they did last year. Weekend sorted :)
Quoting Grothar:



No, I think it is mostly in the United States.


In your post, all I see is a big black box with "Remote Linking Disabled. If trying to post on a blog or forum..."
Quoting taistelutipu:


It's quite rough over here but Scotland gets the worst part of the gales and the heavy rain. Some places in the Highlands have sustained winds of 60 mph and gusts up to 99 mph. It's going to be a wet and windy weekend for us.

I'll spend quite some time inside, I reckon. I'm looking forward to the 6 nations rugby games on the weekend and - of course - the Super Bowl. I hope the BBC provides a live stream like they did last year. Weekend sorted :)


Well, stay dry and enjoy the games. (Har du en radioutstilling der?
150. IKE
18Z GFS @ 156 hours shows a snowy SE USA....


151. IKE
At 180 hours it shows a blast of winter...coldest I've seen this winter season...


.
stop it, Ike- or you'll be treated to me dancing in a bathing suit in the snow.
850 GFSX run at the end shows a zonal flow setting up setting the stage for a warm up as indicated at the end of the ten day run over the west and creeping north and advancing towards the east
Los Low

Or the GOM "Wiley Coyote Acme Winter Screamer" as Im calling it..

SPC Mesoscale Analysis

Select "Freezing Level" in the Drop Down Winter Menu
Quoting IKE:
At 180 hours it shows a blast of winter...coldest I've seen this winter season...


Is that for me IKE?.Awww you shouldn't have.
"It is just a scene of mass devastation," he said. "Larry was a boy compared to this."


Cyclone Yasi strikes North Queensland

Category five cyclone tears roofs off pubs and houses, topples trees, and sends power cables crashing on to roads


* Patrick Barkham in Karratha and Adam Gabbatt
* guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 2 February 2011 18.49 GMT
Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 5:35 PM CST on February 03, 2011

... Very poor travel conditions with icy bridges across much of
central and southern Mississippi...

At 530 PM... National Weather Service radar indicated a large area of
light to moderate freezing rain... mixed with sleet... across
Mississippi along and southeast of the Natchez Trace Parkway. The
precipitation was moving slowly northeast.

Numerous traffic accidents have been reported across the area this
evening as bridges and overpasses have become ice covered. The
Mississippi River bridge at Natchez is iced over... many bridges and
flyovers in the Jackson Metro area are iced... and numerous bridges
across eastern Mississippi including interstates and US highways are
icy. Conditions will only deteriorate further this evening with
sunset and temperatures in the upper 20s. People should avoid travel
if possible... and exercise extreme caution if you have to travel.

Additional wintry precipitation continued to gradually develop over
Louisiana... southeast Texas... and the northern Gulf of Mexico this
evening. This precipitation will overspread the area tonight
resulting in more widespread and heavier wintry precipitation.
Temperatures are expected to begin to warm from the southeast later
tonight... resulting in improving conditions in the Interstate 59
corridor after midnight.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest on this winter
weather situation.
164. IKE
            Quoting aquak9:
stop it, Ike- or you'll be treated to me dancing in a bathing suit in the snow.
omg!



Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that for me IKE?.Awww you shouldn't have.
Ah...why not.
Interesting pic and story from http://spaceweather.com/. Keep an eye for the (60%)chance of a geomagnetic storm today also :)

166. IKE
What happened to the snow for Houston,TX.? Not sure it's going to happen...


Polar View


European Arctic Node



Data and models indicate that the European Arctic ice cover is changing and the summer ice will be greatly reduced in this century. This will have significant impact on the environment and human activities. In this regard, oil and gas exploration as well as marine transportation and ship traffic in the Arctic and surrounding seas will require significant improvements in ice services.

Polar View, in the European Arctic, provides enhanced monitoring of hemispheric sea ice extent and variability in support of climate research and modelling. It also delivers specific monitoring services to secure safe and cost effective marine operations as well as sea ice information in support of environment management and risk assessment. Further details of these services are provided below:

* High Resolution Ice Charts (Norwegian Meteorological Institute)
* Sea Ice Drift Trajectories (Norwegian Polar Institute)
* Global Sea Ice Monitoring - Envisat ASAR Global Mode Mosaics (eOsphere)
* Global Sea Ice Monitoring -AMSR-E Ice Maps (University of Bremen)
* Snow Monitoring (Finnish Environment Institute, VISTA)
* Glacier Monitoring (Stockholm University)

Quoting IKE:
What happened to the snow for Houston,TX.? Not sure it's going to happen...
What happened was that everyone got prepared for it. Airports canceled flights from 3 p.m. today to 12 noon tomorrow. My City Hall (Lake Jackson) will have all offices closed tomorrow. Etc. The only sure thing about the weather seems to be that if you really prepare for it, it won't happen.
no rain..no ice..no snow..missed again!!
But am staying optimistic that Mobile
will get some measurable snow this year
and not just flurries!..
170. IKE

Quoting lhwhelk:
What happened was that everyone got prepared for it. Airports canceled flights from 3 p.m. today to 12 noon tomorrow. My City Hall (Lake Jackson) will have all offices closed tomorrow. Etc. The only sure thing about the weather seems to be that if you really prepare for it, it won't happen.
I hear ya.

It's raining here in the Florida panhandle....39.6 outside.

Maybe they blew this snow forecast for Houston....but I'm not a met:)
The low formed further east in the gulf,so houston you don't have a problem...
Ike, and its been in the eighties for the past week or so here. You want to trade, cause I will take some thirty degree weather down here right now. Though the farmers might disagree, however either way we need the rain badly.
The upper low that is supposed to trigger lift and the snow has not arrived from the west yest.

Quoting IKE:
What happened to the snow for Houston,TX.? Not sure it's going to happen...


174. IKE
From CNN.....
"Houston pre-emptively decided schools will be closed Friday due to forecasts
of 2 to 5 inches of snow, according to school district spokesperson Sarah Greer
Osborne."....
Quoting IKE:
What happened to the snow for Houston,TX.? Not sure it's going to happen...



It's not supposed to start until after midnight. Anxiously awaiting from College Station, TX!
I'm hoping it was just a 12 hr screw up, you can see the twisting motion over mexico and west TX so we'll see what happens tonight into the morning, who knows the event might not happen or it will happen but later into tomm, who knows
178. IKE

Quoting RitaEvac:
I'm hoping it was just a 12 hr screw up, you can see the twisting motion over mexico and west TX so we'll see what happens tonight into the morning, who knows the event might not happen or it will happen but later into tomm, who knows
I see that on radar.
Winds at 925 mb have large northerly components, ensuring more cold air at the surface.



Meanwhile, the 850 mb winds are now off of the Gulf, which is beginning to bring the moisture in.



Should only be a matter of time.
Something has got to happen, there's a low out there,
Quoting weatherboy1992:
The upper low that is supposed to trigger lift and the snow has not arrived from the west yest.





just because you can not see it does not mean its not there its getting ready to surface
182. IKE

183. beell
Decent height falls associated with the trough at 500mb (60-90 decameters) still hanging back over Mexico. This would provide the lift and drag in some moisture for snow if it ever gets here.

people (even me for a while) starting to doubt the event, but might slap us in the face come tomm morning, looks a 12-24 hr delay or something, were already 12 hrs behind
#177 is that language necessary? I think not.
Quoting bayoubug:
The low formed further east in the gulf,so houston you don't have a problem...
thats not totally true
It's hard to tell with the adjustments to the radar, but it looks like echos may be picking up.

Makes me wonder if the NWS is doing that to the radar to make it look like stuff is there, for media purposes, stuff is not hitting the ground so lets show it on radar so it looks better
Quoting RitaEvac:
Makes me wonder if the NWS is doing that to the radar to make it look like stuff is there, for media purposes, stuff is not hitting the ground so lets show it on radar so it looks better


That's absurd. Radar always picks up precip which doesn't hit the ground.

DBZ of less than 15 is not hitting ground.
Sad pics out of Australia. :( Meanwhile closer to home is just icky. Hubby is cut off from home by frozen bridges right now. Locals say more moisture will train into the area over night making the morning commute even worse. Schools closed not for the normal tropical reasons. Will be glad to see it end. Be careful everyone.

Ice causes accidents, bridge closings
Posted: Feb 03, 2011 7:30 PM CST Updated: Feb 03, 2011 7:30 PM CST

Ice forming on roadways has already cause several major accidents.

In south Jefferson County, crews are working a 4-car pile up on top of overpass between Twin City Highway and Highway 73.

Also, a car was reported to have gone off the highway at the 32nd Street overpass on Highway 73.

The conditions of those involved in those accidents are not known at this time.

TxDot says both Rainbow & Veterans Memorial Bridges are closed due to ice forming, but will consider reopening those bridges if conditions improve.
193. DDR
I'm expecting rain everyday until next Tuesday or Wednesday
From the discussion
An area of
low level moisture is currently E of the Lesser Antilles...but
is expected to propagate wwd bringing the potential for
showers/thunderstorms across the far ern Caribbean over the
weekend.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Makes me wonder if the NWS is doing that to the radar to make it look like stuff is there, for media purposes, stuff is not hitting the ground so lets show it on radar so it looks better

No, they just changed the sensitivity. Snow isn't very reflective, so they had to adjust it so it can be seen. There are drawbacks though. The updates are less frequent and there is a reflectivity roof so the radar won't be able to pick out sleet or other forms of precip with high reflectivity from the lower reflectivity snow.
check out infrared satellite, looks as if its ready to rock and roll coming outta mexico
Quoting RitaEvac:
Makes me wonder if the NWS is doing that to the radar to make it look like stuff is there, for media purposes, stuff is not hitting the ground so lets show it on radar so it looks better
its precip that rotates within the cloud deck too light to fall to the ground normally a signal that if conditions improve and precip can increase density and coverage eventually it will be heavy enough to make it all the way to the ground and it will just wait don't rush it
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


That's absurd. Radar always picks up precip which doesn't hit the ground.



Isn't it amazing how people are so paranoid about the government? People might want to realize that those who are working at the NWS are normal people with friends and families.

Heck I might work at the NWS someday in my future when I finish my MET degree. I'm pretty sure they aren't inspired by satanic conspiracies... lol
I'm really not thrilled models are showing to return of brutal cold after having a nice "winter thaw" here in central Florida the last couple weeks...

Hopefully later model runs will warm up, there's plenty of time. Whatever the case, we have had enough winter, we had 6 weeks straight of well below normal temperatures, I already had my taste of winter and I'm ready for Florida warmth to stay for good.
uh oh, check out north of Austin, refletivity looks legit! within the half hr its popped up
Here it comes!!
The 23z run of the HRRR shows a snow band developing over central Texas and proliferating as into moves eastward toward eastern Texas and Western Louisiana. Doesn't show anything reaching Houston until around 7 am or so, but points to the west it shows getting some decent snows with possible mesoscale banding capable of producing isolated 3-6 inches of snow especially in places of eastern Texas north of Houston and back over to the west.

HRRR precipitation totals:


HRRR simulated radar:

Okay guys.Their's a chance I might go down to Florida(Orlando,or Daytona)for my daughter's school trip.They havn't yet decided which place to go,but which one is better Daytona,or Orlando??.It should be sometime around mid-June(OH!! no! hurricane season).This is my first memorable time going down to Florida(Last time I went I was 2 years old)which is like 38 years ago...anywho I need your opinions.So their's a chance i'll be blogging from the Sunshine *cuagh "storm state cuagh,cuagh*state.
Drak couldnt the surface low offshore rob the moisture up north and focus it more towards the coast??
Basically shifting that band of green on that map directly along the coast
dewpoints are even lower north of houston, more moisture is available nearer the coast
207. beell
Kinda hard to find any signs of an offshore surface low.

Supposed to get at least an inverted trough out there tomorrow.
Those surface lows can spin up quick during the winter months
Quoting Drakoen:
The 23z run of the HRRR shows a snow band developing over central Texas and proliferating as into moves eastward toward eastern Texas and Western Louisiana. Doesn't show anything reaching Houston until around 7 am or so, but points to the west it shows getting some decent snows with possible mesoscale banding capable of producing isolated 3-6 inches of snow especially in places of eastern Texas north of Houston and back over to the west.

HRRR precipitation totals:


HRRR simulated radar:


Dang, that's right on top of me, and exactly where the HPC has been placing their QPF maxes for a while now!
Look west of College Station 1900hurricane
211. beell
208. RitaEvac 2:26 AM GMT on February 04, 2011
Those surface lows can spin up quick during the winter months


This one should be in response to the mid-level trough when it swings through.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Makes me wonder if the NWS is doing that to the radar to make it look like stuff is there, for media purposes, stuff is not hitting the ground so lets show it on radar so it looks better
Some of the adjustment they do this time of day, and at about 8 am, is to try to account for the radome being wet with dew.

Of course, the radar covered with a shell covered in water droplets is going to return *something* when the whole thing is designed to detect water droplets...

Not saying that is the case today, just a possible explanation.
Oh, and:
brrr.
One bad thing about the coastal counties is that if it rains, the temp should drop a solid 5 degrees and meet up with the dewpoint temp somewhere in the upper 20s to 30 maybe, could get ugly here if that pans out
Quoting RitaEvac:
One bad thing about the coastal counties is that if it rains, the temp should drop a solid 5 degrees and meet up with the dewpoint temp somewhere in the upper 20s to 30 maybe, could get ugly here if that pans out
Our temp went up a couple of degrees in the last couple of hours. Coincident with this current bit of decent rains.
Atmo is that because of the rain bringing down some warmer air, or is it because you're farther east in the warm sector
what was your dewpoint before the rain and what is it now
Quoting RitaEvac:
Look west of College Station 1900hurricane

At the moment, yes. Still though, both the HPC and the HRRR (shown by Drak) put pretty much the bulls-eye directly over my head. Let's see how the banding sets up, but I'm pretty ecstatic right now.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
817 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-040415-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
817 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.NOW...
AREAS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AND WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. BY MIDNIGHT...
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED 1/2 INCH FROM LAMPASAS...TO TEMPLE
AND KILLEEN...EASTWARD TO HEARNE. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST...IMPACTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

$$

25
Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay guys.Their's a chance I might go down to Florida(Orlando,or Daytona)for my daughter's school trip.They havn't yet decided which place to go,but which one is better Daytona,or Orlando??.It should be sometime around mid-June(OH!! no! hurricane season).This is my first memorable time going down to Florida(Last time I went I was 2 years old)which is like 38 years ago...anywho I need your opinions.So their's a chance i'll be blogging from the Sunshine *cuagh "storm state cuagh,cuagh*state.

Daytona if you like the beach, Orlando for the theme parks.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay guys.Their's a chance I might go down to Florida(Orlando,or Daytona)for my daughter's school trip.They havn't yet decided which place to go,but which one is better Daytona,or Orlando??.It should be sometime around mid-June(OH!! no! hurricane season).This is my first memorable time going down to Florida(Last time I went I was 2 years old)which is like 38 years ago...anywho I need your opinions.So their's a chance i'll be blogging from the Sunshine *cuagh "storm state cuagh,cuagh*state.

Orlando has the theme parks.
Daytona has the beach.
Stay in Orlando and visit Daytona or the other way around.
Quoting RitaEvac:
what was your dewpoint before the rain and what is it now
224. JRRP
washintonian: Depends on what you like to do. If you like the beach and the ocean, Daytona is the ticket. If you want to go to the parks (Disney, MGM, Universal Studios, Seaworld) then Orlando. If you have a car you can easily drive form one to the other -

haha geep....'coke!'
nite all. glad i'm not living in chicago right now.
227. flsky
Does anyone know why these clouds look like this?
Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay guys.Their's a chance I might go down to Florida(Orlando,or Daytona)for my daughter's school trip.


As an outsider I was quite impressed with Saint Augustine... but am into history myself.

Was very impressed with it on my first time ever in FLA (over 50!)
LOL, Chick. G'nite
And it begins....


Numerous reports now of freezing rain and sleet to our SW, numerous highway being closed from icing across S TX.

Radar is really starting to light up and clearly moisture advection off the Gulf if in progress. Freezing rain now noted as far NE as Port Aransas.

Expect things to rapidly begin to develop as strong lift is approaching the area from the W and SW.


Long range Discussion from Albany, NY


WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM CRANKS UP
TAPPING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ERN PACIFIC FOR LOW
PRESSURE TO ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS CYCLONE
RACES E/NE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE TRACK IS VARIABLE
ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES/ECMWF/GFS/HPC...BUT WE COULD
EXPERIENCE ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE COASTAL WINTER STORM. IT IS A BIT
WORRISOME THAT THE 12Z GFS DEEPENS THE LOW FROM 1003 HPA AT 00Z/THU
OVER ALABAMA TO 956 HPA OVER SRN NOVA SCOTIA AT 00Z/FRI. A BIT MIND
BOGGLING...STAY TUNED !!!

I'm embarrased at how bad these Ms folk drive in icy weather....it's totally ridiculous...
Corpus Christi update


TXDOT has ordered all freeways in the Corpus Christi area closed with ice on all freeways resulting in numerous accidents.

Widespread sanding operations in progress.

Radar over Fort Bend and Wharton counties starting to show dbz to 15, so not long. Freezing drizzle is developing over the Houston metro area and road temperatures are near 32-34 so it will not be long before ice and very dangerous travel develops.


Starting to get some nice divergence aloft from the right entrance region of the jet streak!

I will be back later tonight to answer any questions anyone may have. I will try to answer questions previously posted on this blog also.
Speaking of the Gulf sfc low formation, have noted a change from yesterday's / most of today's mid level deck, as of this eve here in coastal SE LA, I'm now seeing solid low stratus clouds racing NE-SW in response... so it's taking shape...

Dewpoints are certainly on a steady rise as well, with both KHUM arpt (35F) and HUML1 Ag Center (34F) at 100% humidity, matching the air temps... along with our advertised cold rain off/on... probably see slowly rising temps into early morn here...

Ditto on the "brrrrr", chilled to the bones with these temps / moisture...

Enjoy the snow (and less ice hopefully), SE Texans / SW LA Cajuns!
Meanwhile E Cen LA into MS/AL is indeed a dangerous icy mess...
Stay warm and safe, all!
For those interested, I am posting updates on the Texas Winter Storm in my blog. Feel free to stop by!
I have mix snizzle with rain here Doc,Low scud doing as you mentioned.

Itsa Big Circulation

Waco, Texas is reporting light snow. This developing snow swath over Central Texas will be the one to watch as it advects eastward.



500mb low situated over western Texas is gonna strengthen a bit as a moves eastward to provide greater uplift for folk in eastern Texas preferably north of Houston.

Thank's everyone for the advice.A amusment park may be more sutible for the kids,than the beach.
Hopefully when that last section moving from Lake Charles comes thru Ms, ours will be over. Been real nasty all day.....32 accidents on the stack(where I-20,I-55,an 49 merge)....they closed it down at 4 and backed up traffic still waiting to get off for 6 hrs now...
A storm is born

Quoting weatherboy1992:
A storm is born



Cant believe how fast that blew up....amazing...hope those folks slow down and drive very carefully....and dont get out if you dont have to.
I'm wondering about the snow forecast for San Antonio/Austin and east along I-10 to Houston. And on the Texas coast from Corpus Christi north. Could this be a surprise bigger storm for DFW and leave places in southeast Texas out of it?
We're just about saturated here in College Station. I'm going to say snow here within an hour!

Quoting weatherboy1992:
I'm wondering about the snow forecast for San Antonio/Austin and east along I-10 to Houston. And on the Texas coast from Corpus Christi north. Could this be a surprise bigger storm for DFW and leave places in southeast Texas out of it?


Have you checked out Keeper's blog? He's really good with these fronts...
Quoting weatherboy1992:
I'm wondering about the snow forecast for San Antonio/Austin and east along I-10 to Houston. And on the Texas coast from Corpus Christi north. Could this be a surprise bigger storm for DFW and leave places in southeast Texas out of it?

Doubtful, just that the best dynamics are currently out west. It should be moving east through the night. The Dallas area may get more than expected though.
I'll take a look, thanks.
I see blue starting to blow up over College Station. Go out and take a walk and give us the ground truth!
It's snowing in Seguin (40 miles E of SA on I-10)
Freezing drizzle in San Antonio
This is pretty amazing. The high today in Monterrey, MX was only 32 today. They are at 2,300 feet above sea level buts still.
Quoting weatherboy1992:
I see blue starting to blow up over College Station. Go out and take a walk and give us the ground truth!

Starting to get some sleet here, should change over soon!
Quoting Patrap:
GOM WunderMap®


Hee,hee,,

Sneaux it iz,,




SPC Mesoscale Analysis
Auto-refresh is set to every 5 minutes [OFF 1 min 5 min]


Well congrats...I think..lol...
Quoting 1900hurricane:
We're just about saturated here in College Station. I'm going to say snow here within an hour!



Nice sounding with near saturation from the mid levels down to the surface.
Quoting Drakoen:


Nice sounding with near saturation from the mid levels down to the surface.

Thanks! As soon as it is completely saturated, we should she the band over my head really light up!
Frizzle in Houston now...
Cloudsat caught the precip over Southern MS.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021800
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EST WED 02 FEBRUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z FEBRUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-064

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. P27/ 35.5N 156.0W/ 04/1200Z
B. AFXXX 16WSC TRACK27
C. 04/0530Z
D. 19 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 04/1800Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL G-IV FLIGHT,
TRACK P76/ 37N 169.3E/ 5/1200Z.

3. REMARKS: TRACK FOR 03/1200Z CHANGED FROM P19
TO P28. TEAL 73 WILL FLY THE MISSION WITH
A TAKE OFF TIME 03/0600Z.
WVW
Heater is still busted here. Thankfully, we have a fire in the fireplace, so we don't have to see our breath in our house anymore.
gap closing in on NWS

Record Events for Yesterday
Low Temperatures: 92
Link
Brownsville / South Padre Island Intl Airport
Link

More frozen precip predicted tonight by the local mets.. Beaumont, Lake Charles...
We left work at 2:30 today, looked innocent enough, but ice cycles, or however you spell it, already forming on the road signs. No problem with the short drive to SW Louisiana, but tonight, already one fatality on one of the big bridges in Port Arthur, now they have closed both. They never spread aggregate on them, btw.
Local mets now, all except one, are predicting more sleet, freezing rain and snow for tomorrow. The forecast has now been verified.
Snow sighted here, mixing with the sleet. EVERYTHING IS ACCUMULATING!!!!!

Quoting Seawall:
We left work at 2:30 today, looked innocent enough, but ice cycles, or however you spell it, already forming on the road signs.
Icicles.
1900, where are you? I'm in SW Louisiana

Quoting 1900hurricane:
Snow sighted here, mixing with the sleet. EVERYTHING IS ACCUMULATING!!!!!
Bwahaha. This looks familiar.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Icicles.


Thanks, I knew I couldn't ride them.. LOL Just never had the use to spell them lately on the Gulf Coast.
Still freezing rain here during the past hours; not good for the power lines nor the pine tree branches that hang above them.....
Quoting Seawall:
1900, where are you? I'm in SW Louisiana

College Station, TX
Quoting KoritheMan:

Bwahaha. This looks familiar.

Haha, I think I've posted that everywhere! Here, my blog, facebook, twitter...


Happy New Year (nobody else mentioned it).

Folks up north must think we southern aboding folks are weird waiting for it to snow....
Well, 1900, if it heads east, we're sunk. That's just what our local mets said earlier, precip starting to the west of us, heading east. Chance of us receiving it until mid morning. Only one missed it, the local met Greg Boswick missed it on KFDM. All the others nailed it. Normally he is so reliable.
I'm praying this turns to snow; cause the freezing rain means power outages, and I don't want to have to drag the genny out in really cold temps, over wet ground. LOL
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Happy New Year (nobody else mentioned it).

Folks up north must think we southern aboding folks are weird waiting for it to snow....


Nope, they probably are wondering why we can't drive in it, or ice.. LOL
Quoting RitaEvac:
Drak couldnt the surface low offshore rob the moisture up north and focus it more towards the coast??


Its an upper low that's gonna be bringing snow to Texas, upper lows don't really rely so much on moisture as they do instability(steep lapse rates) to provide precipitation. In fact, technically anytime you have snow, the air is quite dry because the air mass is so cold. However, even is very dry cold air masses, there is still more moisture out there than you think.

Put it this way, warm tropical air masses hold MUCH higher moisture content then cold ones. However, a warm humid air mass is useless without cold air for it to rise and precipitate into.

A very disturbing situation for extremely heavy rain, would be a stacked low pressure area, a deep upper low providing very cold air aloft, over a strong surface low that pulls in 2.00 inch PWAT's and 70 degree dewpoints.


However, upper lows are great ways to still get precipitation even when the air is very dry. In fact dewpoints at the surface won't make a difference, since the upper low will be generating high clouds, not surface based convection, which you see in warm humid air masses (60 and 70 degree dewpoints).
Quoting Seawall:


Nope, they probably are wondering why we can't drive in it, or ice.. LOL


:)

Frizzle has changed into real freezing rain... going to be nasty on the roads in the morning so stay off of them.

It is easy to drive upon snow... it's that darn ice.
Here's a couple pictures so far:







Still waiting for the best stuff!
Quite a band to the west of me!

I'm on "snow watch" and woke my kids(well, they aren't really kids anymore)
They have never seen snow.

They got out there and made a snowman.
It has not snowed in San Antonio since 1987!
286. mnsky
wheres that in FL? Nice shot! Free counters!
Free counters!
287. IKE

288. IKE
System the middle of next week, from the Birmingham,AL. extended discussion....


THE NEXT BIG IMPACT WILL BE THE SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK AND THE AIR MASS
TO FOLLOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS SYSTEM EVOLVING A BIT
DIFFERENTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER STREAMS INVOLVED. TIMING HAS
BEEN AN ISSUE THE PAST FEW RUNS BUT THE MODELS APPEAR A BIT CLOSER
TODAY WITH A WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING APPEARANCE. THE ECMWF
HAS A SOUTHERN INFLUENCE WHERE TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CARDS. THEN POSSIBLY A
TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW. THE GFS HAS THE COLDER AIR CLOSER AND
WOULD INDICATE RAIN WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW. AT THIS
POINT...BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE FEASIBLE WITH THIS SPLIT FLOW REGIME.
WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
BOTH MODELS DO HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER AND IT HAS NOT REALLY
MATERIALIZED. THIS CHANCE LOOKS BETTER BECAUSE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ORIENTATION. BUT AT THIS TIME...TOOK A MIX OF TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
HPC...ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE FAR EXTENDED AS ENSEMBLE STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ARE STILL HIGH. THIS COULD BE A VERY COLD AIR MASS WITH ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD OF IT. STAY TUNED.
289. IKE
So much for much snow for Houston,TX. Updated forecast....

Today
Cloudy until late afternoon then becoming partly cloudy. Light
freezing drizzle likely and a slight chance of snow in the morning.
Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent in the morning. Lowest
wind chill readings 11 to 21 in the morning.




g'morning Ike...I have a feeling, any of next week's cold, is gonna not be so bad...well at least not here.

Ya'll over in the panhandle, that's like a whole 'nuther state.

modified- nevermind, just read my extended..well you know how I feel about my mets (they've been outsourced) and they say back into the 20's next thur/fri

g'morning dayshift, hi nea...
291. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning Ike...I have a feeling, any of next week's cold, is gonna not be so bad...well at least not here.

Ya'll over in the panhandle, that's like a whole 'nuther state.

modified- nevermind, just read my extended..well you know how I feel about my mets (they've been outsourced) and they say back into the 20's next thur/fri

g'morning dayshift, hi nea...
LOL...I was just gonna post this....from Jax,FL.....

Long term...Monday through Thursday
high pressure will settle overhead Monday night and would not be
surprised to see a light freeze event across the interior. High
will shift offshore and temperatures are not expected to be quite as cold
Tuesday night but some normally colder areas could bottom out near
freezing. Next low is prognosticated to track across central Georgia Wednesday
night. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
along the front. This front will open the door to an Arctic airmass to plunge into the region with min temperatures in the 20s Thursday night.

I already read it

but ya just HAD to go there, eh?

you like poking sticks into hornet's nests, too?

God I'm sick of this winter. :(
294. IKE
The coldest I've seen all winter. -10 line almost down to the Florida panhandle....


Quoting KoritheMan:
God I'm sick of this winter. :(

I'm sick of having a broken heater...
296. IKE
It has been a long winter and is not what was forecast for the SE USA. Another busted forecast.

Where's that 2-5 inches of snow for Houston?
Quoting IKE:
It has been a long winter and is not what was forecast for the SE USA. Another busted forecast.

Where's that 2-5 inches of snow for Houston?

In Dallas.
298. IKE
One more dagger in the heart...from the Jackson,Mississippi extended discussion......

THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE COMING INTO CONSENSUS OF A SIGNIFICANT
STORMS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE
EURO BEING SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL DICTATE WEATHER WE
RECEIVE ALL RAIN...RAIN TO SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW. GOING WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WILL GO WITH MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OBVIOUSLY IT IS WAY TO
EARLY TO TRY AND GET INTO THE DETAILS. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH...WITH THE GFS INDICATING A 1040MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS INDICATES AN H925MB
TEMPERATURE RANGE OF -19C TO -12C ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE EURO SLIGHTLY WARMER. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
VERY COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE IF THE MODELS HOLD...WHICH IS A BIG IF THIS FAR OUT.

STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO TRY AND BLEND THE GFS/EURO...ESPECIALLY THE WED-FRI
PERIOD. CUT GUIDANCE POPS A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP FROM THE EURO. STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CUT BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VERY
COLD AIRMASS SPILLING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA./15/

299. IKE

Quoting 1900hurricane:

In Dallas.
lol.
korithe- I'm sick of winter too, we all are

1900- I'll send blankies and cats, they will help keep ya'll warm

ike- the dagger man

later ya'll
301. IKE
Have a nice day aquak.....weather should be okay this weekend.....I wish it was warmer too....
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
I'm embarrased at how bad these Ms folk drive in icy weather....it's totally ridiculous...

Don't be- people here in WV can't drive in it either :) Last snow we had, we only had 12 inches (a normal once or twice winter event here) and there were 7 jack knifed trucks and 12 cars that had to be cleared away from the mountain we live on. The road was blcked for hours.
303. IKE
Looks like the low responsible for snow in Texas may have gone further north then forecast and that may be why Dallas got close to 5 inches and Houston got teased.
305. beell
Quoting IKE:
Looks like the low responsible for snow in Texas may have gone further north then forecast and that may be why Dallas got close to 5 inches and Houston got teased.


I think it was from a closed meso low at 850mb over NE TX.

The mid level low was pretty much right on track.
306. IKE
From Fort Worth...

Previous discussion... /issued 416 am CST Friday Feb 4 2011/
widespread snow has developed over North Texas with 2 to 4+ inches
reported in many locations in the County Warning Area. An initial heavy band of
snow moved north through the County Warning Area between 10 PM and 1 am. This
heavy band seemed to form on the leading edge of a surging Theta-E
gradient as warm air advection quickly occurred ahead of the very
strong low pressure system. 1 to 2 inches of snow fell in
locations near the metroplex in about an hour. After this...much
lighter snow has persisted with visibilities at local airports
between 3/4 and 3 miles. The back edge of the light to moderate
snowfall currently extends along a line from Sherman to dfw to
Killeen. Behind this line very light snow or flurries continues
with embedded bands of heavier snow. Additional mesoscale banding
has led to higher amounts of snow for locations near Dallas...Hunt
and Kaufman counties. Expect this to continue and have issued a
Winter Storm Warning for locations east of a Sherman to Denton to
Dallas line. Storm total snow will average between 3 to 6 inches
for these areas.

Morning,

It's not a nice day on the Carolina Coast...36 deg and rain with a chilly North wind !!
312. beell
a surging Theta-E gradient as warm air advection quickly occurred

Possibly caused by the 850mb low to the SE of the Dallas area?
314. IKE

Quoting beell:
a surging Theta-E gradient as warm air advection quickly occurred

Possibly caused by the 850mb low to the SE of the Dallas area?
Reads like it to me...
315. IKE
Looks like the entire system is starting to lift on out.
cnn homepage has a link to yasi photos there looks like there was some cat 3-4 damage
317. IKE
New Orleans Lakefront, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 18 min 3 sec ago


37 F

Light Snow Mist

319. beell
02/03 18Z GFS-valid 06Z (midnight local)
Link

Photobucket

Well, rush hour traffic has turned into a mess in Houston. Many of the flying overpasses have iced and traffic is at a standstill on many freeways. In and around Houston the surface streets are fair to ok, but it's our overpasses that do us in again when we get winter precipitation. The overpasses do make for wonderfull shade in summer, and a great place to get your car out of a flood when we get too much rain!
323. IKE
I see some drier air working into Houston. If the sun would come out it would melt that ice.
Should not have left Pelican Bay. Foggy, but 70 degrees at the moment I hear. I'll take that anyday. But this snow in Arlington, TX is something. I sure hope this isn't normal down here.

Not the team I'm necessarily rooting for, but I do see the Steelers pulling this one off. Three rings for Big Ben.

That linebacking core of Woodley, Harrison, Farrior, and Timmons are too good. And then you add Polomalu into the mix with those zone blitzes LeBeau dials up.
No school today in Central Texas! More ice than expected. Apparantly some dry air got mixed in...light snow on top, though. Kids are excited!
Stay warm, America!
Good Morning all from the Sunny and warm Florida Keys. Looking at the front in Patrap's posting makes me think we may be in for a drop in temperatures and some rain. Hopefully it won't get too chilly.
February 1-2, 2001 Blizzard Snowfall Total Map:

Click To Enlarge
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Aussie,

Thank you for sharing those heart wrenching photos... Thoughts & prayers for our Aussie friends.
I'm sad to see the destruction, Australia is such a beautiful country - I know the people will pull together and over come this hardship.

Peace Be With You...

Your welcome and Thank you.
Quoting nocaneindy:


Aussie, what are some good charities to donate to for relieve over there?

Australian Red Cross.
Salvation Army
Also Premiers relief fund.
Quoting Floodman:
Aussie, our thoughts are with your neighbors in the north that have suffered so much...

How are you doing? Your reporting was very good, but I'm afraid you may be a bit worn out

Thanks and yes I am both physically and mentally exhausted.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Incredible pics,Aussie,like others,my prayers are with you and all those effected.I heard on the news no deaths have been reported,but I'm sure that is early reports.

There has been 1 death so far a 23-year-old man from Bamboroo, near Ingham, has suffocated while using a generator in a small room, as power was cut to his house.
Here are a few stats from TC Yasi.

YASI'S POWER

Early estimate of cost: $1 billion hit to agriculture (mainly bananas and sugar) and tourism. Insurance, infrastructure and other rebuilding costs yet to be determined.

Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) highest estimated wind gust: 290km/h
Highest unconfirmed recorded wind gust (by BoM observers): 220km/h Tully and Innisfail.
Highest official recorded wind gust: Lucinda Point 185km/h 11.27pm Wednesday


DEATH TOLL

A 23-year-old man from Bamboroo, near Ingham, has suffocated while using a generator in a small room, as power was cut to his house. Fears are also held for two men missing since the flood. One of whom was reported missing by his sister in Brisbane and another after being last seen trying to move his yacht into mangroves near Cardwell. Both have been found and are alive and well.

DAMAGED AREAS

Mission Beach - Aerial assessors believe 22 properties have major structural damage but the full real extent of damage will not be known until ground crews move in.
Tully - Buildings and homes sustained damage in town. At Tully Heads, 21 properties have major damage, 19 have medium damage and 12 have minor damage. Traffic lights bent in half. Banana and sugar cane crops all but wiped out.
Cairns - Avoided the worst of Cyclone Yasi making landfall night although more than 65 per cent of homes were without power.
Innisfail - Town was isolated by floodwaters. Roads strewn with debris. Some 8000 baby barramundi killed at a barramundi farm at Mourilyan, south of Innisfail.
Cardwell - Around 60 properties have major structural damage, 100 have "medium level damage" and 50 have minor damage. A church was stripped of its walls and roof. Banana crops all but wiped out.
Townsville - 85 per cent of city lost without power. Minor structural damage. Debris strewn across streets. 9m storm surge wave reported.
Ingham - Complete loss of power. In danger of flooding with expected levels of 12.2m similar to what was reached during flood of Christmas 2010.
Proserpine: Half of the town without power.
Port Hinchinbrook - About 70 boats either destroyed or damaged and litter the foreshore and nearby streets.
Mackay - Early reports from the scene at Abbot Point, Mackay and Hay Point terminals are that the monster storm caused no major structural damage. Half of the city without power.

COMMUNICATIONS

Telstra - 25 mobile phone towers out of commission. Over 10,000 landlines disconnected.
NBN Infrastructure - Possible damage in Townsville. Government waiting for further inspections.

SCHOOLS

More than 250 schools closed in the wake of Cyclone Yasi:
82 - state schools in far north Queensland
93 - state schools in north Queensland
53 - Catholic schools
26 - independent schools and five TAFE colleges

TOWN BY TOWN

Official BoM weather observations (max wind gusts recorded/ AEST):

Cairns: 48km/h, 5.32pm Tuesday; 85km/h 11.38pm Wednesday; 93km/h, 12.43am Thursday.
Townsville: 44km/h, 11.47am Tuesday; 120km/h, 11pm Wednesday; 135km/h, 1.23am Thursday.
Lucinda Point (120km south of Mission Beach and also nearest BoM weather gauge): 48 km/h 10.39pm Tuesday; 185km/h, 11.27pm Wednesday; 180km/h, Thursday 2.14am.
Mareeba (60km west of Cairns): 48km/h, 6.38pm Tuesday; 81km/h, 11.18pm Wednesday.
Georgetown (375km approx, west of Mission Beach where Yasi reached landfall): 46km/h 10.55pm Tuesday; 63km/h 5.02pm Wednesday.

TC Yasi from Birth to Death
Coming home to heartbreak after Cyclone Yasi

DEVASTATION: The luxurious Dunk Island resort the day after Cyclone Yasi battered north Queensland

HEARTBROKEN Rebecca Latemore came home to find her house popped apart like a cake box.

The 35-year-old broke down and sobbed as she stood in the wreckage of her rented Mission Beach home of two years, her possessions strewn over hundreds of metres.

"They told us she was going to be a monster, but why did she have to be so vindictive?" the resort worker said.

Ms Latemore and her partner Rupert Perry spent a terrifying night under the sink in a bathroom at a nearby resort as the eye of Cyclone Yasi crossed the coast.

It was better than staying at home. When they returned yesterday only the toilet was left standing and all four walls were peeled away.

"We knew the place was vulnerable. Thank God we did not stay," Mr Perry said.

"After the eye there was this eerie calm for 40 minutes and then this roar before the wind swung around and really hit us.
"It sounded like a thousand freight trains coming at us that was when the damage was done."

In a sweep yesterday by helicopter from Cairns to Ingham, The Courier-Mail counted at least 100 unsalvageable homes blown apart by the epic storm.

One house was lifted up and smashed into rocks, huge sections of rainforest were stripped bare of leaves and beachfront hamlets in Mission Beach, Hull Head and Tully Heads were left in ruins.
The damage revealed in Bryant St, Tully

The Dunk Island resort, off Mission Beach, was also smashed beyond recognition.

The function hall was gutted, an "infinity" pool filled with sand and the health centre was unroofed.

Almost all of the beachfront apartments had their walls torn off and were left empty shells by the ferocious winds.

Palm trees, normally a hardy species capable of withstanding heavy storms, were stripped bare of fronds.

Luckily, all the island's staff who had not been evacuated managed to survive the storm unscathed.

They were airlifted off the island yesterday and offered counselling. A skeleton crew remained behind to start the clean-up and rebuilding process.

Further south at Port Hinchinbrook, the sprawling resort built by entrepreneur Keith Williams, the marina was a scene of extraordinary devastation.

Yacht owner Steve Crothers said the marina simply crumbled in the face of an estimated 7m storm surge after he evacuated on Tuesday.

His motor sailer Electra 2 was turned into scrap metal. It now stood untidily stacked among the junk of a trashed multi-million dollar fleet.

Debris of the storm surge could be seen above the Bruce Highway, about 100m inland. The highway was covered in sand and large slabs of bitumen surface ripped up.

The Cardwell police station, court house and pub were left shattered.

Survivor Todd "Totty" Adams, 71, and his brother Owen told how they outran the storm surge in Tully. Their two-storey house held up at first, but when a wave of water crashed through the windows they ran.
AUSTRALIA - Cyclone Yasi wreaks 'phenomenal devastation' Northern Australia was the scene of massive destruction Thursday morning, with houses and crops flattened by the most powerful storm in a century.

Complete Update





SPC Mesoscale Analysis
Auto-refresh is set to every minute [OFF 1 min 5 min]


Select Freezing "Level" from the Winter Drop down menu
LOL.

Special weather statement from NWS NOLA/BR:

...Light flurries being reported around the area...

During the past hour several reporting sites including Lakefront
Airport...Hammond and Slidell have reported light snow. In Slidell
very light snow flurries were observed mixing in with the rain at
times. A few flurries and/or sleet will continue to be possible
through the morning hours with no accumulation or impacts
expected.

In addition...a few lightning strikes are being reported around
the area this morning and can also be expected to continue through
the remainder of the morning hours.

Motorists should use extra caution along area roadways this
morning as area streets are wet from the overnight rainfall. Some
ponding of water on roadways can be expected.


atmo: Yeah, I saw a couple of nice lightning strikes at Covington 30 minutes ago. And I'm convinced that if I stapled my eyelids open and went outside and stared at something dark for 10 minutes, I'd see 3 snowflakes.
Official: Gifford's astronaut husband Mark Kelly will fly on shuttle mission set for April

By Marcia Dunn (CP)



CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. — The astronaut husband of wounded Rep. Gabrielle Giffords has made his choice. He's headed to space in April.

An official close to the space shuttle program confirmed Friday morning that astronaut Mark Kelly will be aboard Endeavour for its final flight. The official did not want to be named because the information has not yet been made public. Kelly will hold a news conference at Johnson Space Center in Houston on Friday afternoon.

Kelly took a leave from training after Giffords was shot in the head at a Tucson, Arizona, shopping centre on Jan. 8. She's undergoing rehab in Houston.

Kelly spent the past month debating whether to step down as commander of Endeavour's two-week mission. Liftoff is targeted for April 19.

Copyright © 2011 The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
342. IKE

O' man,,I gotta get the video going atmo,.

Thunder and lightening UPTOWN.

Sleet and snizzle with slain as well

Quoting KoritheMan:
God I'm sick of this winter. :(
Me too..We have huge ice pellets right now whacking our tin garage roof. It sounds like somebody shootin a gong with a machine gun...
From the numerous traffic cams in and about the city, Houston looks to be pretty much shut down at the moment. There's just a dusting of snow, but that snow is sitting atop a layer of ice...
346. IKE
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
828 am CST Friday Feb 4 2011


Update...
precipitation is winding down across the area this hour as dry slot on
the south side of the upper low wraps into the area. Will keep a
mix of light snow and freezing drizzle mentioned for the northern
half and freezing drizzle over the southern half until 17z. Will
keep precipitation mentioned for NE zones until 19z. Freezing rain has
produced ice accumulations of 1/10 to 1/4 inch across much of southeast
Texas and the roads remain icy and treacherous. Will keep the warning
going until 18z as a result. Visible satellite imagery shows the
clearing line extending from Austin to Alice this hour...advancing
east at around 30 miles per hour. Skies should clear over SW zones late
morning and central third midday to early afternoon. Have adjusted
temperatures upward over the SW 2/3 of the area as a result. Expect the
Houston metropolitan area to see temperatures climb above freezing in the 18-19z
time frame. Finally...will likely need to issue a hard freeze
warning to address cold temperatures tonight along with the threat of
refreezing on the roadways. Will address this later this morning.
347. IKE
For Houston,TX....

Rest of Today
Cloudy early in the morning then becoming partly cloudy in the
afternoon then becoming mostly sunny late in the afternoon. A chance of
light freezing drizzle early in the morning. Highs in the upper 30s.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent early
in the morning. Lowest wind chill readings 11 to 21 early in the
morning.
Quoting Patrap:
O' man,,I gotta get the video going atmo,.

Thunder and lightening UPTOWN.

Sleet and snizzle with slain as well

Really. I wouldn't have though you'd have much more than simple rain right now.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Really. I wouldn't have though you'd have much more than simple rain right now.


Getting ugly snowflakes mixed with the rain in Harahan.
Quoting Neapolitan:
From the numerous traffic cams in and about the city, Houston looks to be pretty much shut down at the moment. There's just a dusting of snow, but that snow is sitting atop a layer of ice...
And this is the result of that dusting on a layer:
About 90% rain-10% ratio here,flakes are wicked.


I-10 remains closed from Lafayette, LA to just W of Baton Rouge. Temps are slowly warming now, though
000
FXUS62 KTBW 040955
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
455 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR INLAND COUNTIES WHERE VISIBILITIES
HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SET THE ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AT 8 AM WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM EST FRI FEB 4 2011/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH. AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS
PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO ARKANSAS TODAY...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT
AND INTO THE NATURE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. FOG THIS MORNING
HAS SO FAR NOT PRODUCED VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS YESTERDAY AND
WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. AS A RESULT...LOWERED WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY AND
NUDGED WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST DOWN. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODEL POPS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE WITH 20
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE HIGHER MOS POPS.

MOIST AIR AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE FOG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES
WITH BEST DEVELOPMENT FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S TODAY AND DROP TO THE 60S AND 70S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TONIGHT...THEN MID 40S TO AROUND 60
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE STILL OVER THE
PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
ON MONDAY...WE CAN EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER...WITH TIMING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY
AND EVEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO 40%
ON MONDAY DUE TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON FRONTAL TIMING...AND KEPT
20% POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM...SO ALTHOUGH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY...IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS...AS USUAL...IS FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING
WHEREAS THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL THURS NIGHT. WILL KEEP JUST 20%
POPS IN FOR THURSDAY...AND REFINE AS TIMING GETS NARROWED DOWN.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING ON TEMPERATURES WITH EACH
RUN...SOMETIMES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES. DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE SOME
COOLER AIR OVER THE AREA TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE WARMING
TEMPS AGAIN QUICKLY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S REASONING...HAVE NOT
GONE STRICTLY WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE EXTENDED...WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND UPWARDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.


AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AT THE
TAF SITES...AT LEAST AS FAR AS VISIBILITIES GO. CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE VERY LOW THROUGH MID MORNING...AND SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH
MIDDAY. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING WORSENING CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER
SUNSET TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO BONITA BEACH
UNTIL 8 AM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEA FOG TO DEVELOP FROM TARPON SPRING SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FILLS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DROPPING RH VALUES SLIGHTLY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 80 64 70 52 / 10 10 30 20
FMY 81 64 76 60 / 10 10 20 20
GIF 80 60 73 52 / 10 10 30 20
SRQ 79 64 69 54 / 10 10 20 20
BKV 78 60 64 48 / 10 10 30 20
SPG 76 63 68 55 / 10 10 30 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DE SOTO-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BONITA BEACH
TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO
60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM/AVIATION...23/MCNATT


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
914 am CST Friday Feb 4 2011



Long term...
next weather feature should be some moisture return Sunday night
in advance of a sharpening trough and frontal passage during the
super bowl activities. Rainfall should be considerably less in
coverage compared to today. Models then show indications of
another round of potential winter weather middle of next week as
more Arctic air drops into the country and Gulf cyclogenesis once
again develops to bring a shield of moisture over cold air. The
next round does look more snowy and less icy than the current
system...at least this far out in time 5 days out. The area may be
able to see a day or two of lower 60s temperatures briefly during
the week to offset the otherwise below normal regime currently
underway. 24/rr

looks like the local NWS forecast office isn't too concerned about the next cold blast, they are even saying in their discussion they will continue to raise the temperature forecast above computer guidance with passing time.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I-10 remains closed from Lafayette, LA to just W of Baton Rouge. Temps are slowly warming now, though
lol. I didn't know that, yet, but the Aussie comes through with good local info.
Wow...I'm surprised at how many people responded to my quibble about using the term "jack knife" about a bus.

Thanks to all (Neapolitan, cat5hurricane, DontAnnoyMe, and others...) for setting me straight.

Let's see if I can cause lots more comments...

Global warming is a myth. Discuss amongst yourselves.

:-)
Quoting FriendlyPrimate:
Wow...I'm surprised at how many people responded to my quibble about using the term "jack knife" about a bus.

Thanks to all (Neapolitan, cat5hurricane, DontAnnoyMe, and others...) for setting me straight.

Let's see if I can cause lots more comments...

Global warming is a myth. Discuss amongst yourselves.

:-)
No, and you can't make me.
;-)
Quoting atmoaggie:
lol. I didn't know that, yet, but the Aussie comes through with good local info.
Wonder if it truly has to do with ice, though.

Is only closed weatbound...

"Interstate 10 west at Ramah is closed due to an accident. Traffic is being diverted off at La 415 and onto U.S. 190 west, according to the state department of Transportation and Development's website."
http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/breaking/Friday-morning-road-closures.html
Quoting FriendlyPrimate:
Wow...I'm surprised at how many people responded to my quibble about using the term "jack knife" about a bus.

Thanks to all (Neapolitan, cat5hurricane, DontAnnoyMe, and others...) for setting me straight.

Let's see if I can cause lots more comments...

Global warming is a myth. Discuss amongst yourselves.

:-)

Hey, anytime man.

And no argue there.
Quoting FriendlyPrimate:
Wow...I'm surprised at how many people responded to my quibble about using the term "jack knife" about a bus.

Thanks to all (Neapolitan, cat5hurricane, DontAnnoyMe, and others...) for setting me straight.

Let's see if I can cause lots more comments...

Global warming is a myth. Discuss amongst yourselves.

:-)


You're the one calling yourself a friendly primate, I'm sure that doesn't help lol
Avoid travel unless absolutely necessary in the Houston area. Roadways are icy, wet, and slippery. Crews out sanding.
Natural gas shortages in parts of Texas, due in part to weather
Deadly accident in Houston attributed to icy roads, according to Mayor's office.
Quoting weatherboy1992:
A storm is born


Nice radar loop. Looks like it happened a little further west than predicted. Have a little ice southwest of Houston, not the couple inches of snow that was predicted. Ice is too thick to easily scrape off the car though.
367. IKE
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
850 am CST Friday Feb 4 2011


Discussion...radar showing only very weak echoes in Calhoun
County and offshore (radar in vcp-31)...and no precipitation
reported in Calhoun County. Visible satellite showing clearing
line approximately west of an Alice to Goliad line...and slowly
moving eastward. Thus...drier air is moving in and subsidence
seems to be taking over.


As a result...will cancel Winter Storm Warning at 9 am. Probably
only minor adjustments to first period at this time as like to get
the expiration out first.
Yes, CNN. You are correct when you show Queensland is located in Tasmania on a map..


OMG, So funny.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Yes, CNN. You are correct when you show Queensland is located in Tasmania on a map..


OMG, So funny.
Wow. Embarrassing, really.

Bad, bad international education begets more bad international education. I wonder how many Americans think that Egypt is on the Persian Gulf. Israel, too, for that matter.
370. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting FriendlyPrimate:
Wow...I'm surprised at how many people responded to my quibble about using the term "jack knife" about a bus.

Thanks to all (Neapolitan, cat5hurricane, DontAnnoyMe, and others...) for setting me straight.

Let's see if I can cause lots more comments...

Global warming is a myth. Discuss amongst yourselves.

:-)


Not to worry. Everyone gets blasted on here equally. No matter what one says, there will always be someone to correct you, or at least a smart answer. Quibbling is favorite pastime on the blog. If I say "It is warm" Someone will always come back with, "Well, it's not that warm" Usually, it's atmoaggie, but contrary to popuar belief, he really is a nice guy and one of the more knowledgable on the blog. He corrects me all the time and sometimes he is even right. Don't take it personally. LOL
Global colling is here!
Global cooling is over. :) Back to global warming hopefully.
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