WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Nate makes landfall; Maria organizing, but pulling away from the islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:15 PM GMT on September 11, 2011

Tropical Storm Nate made landfall at 11 am EDT this morning just north of Barra de Nautla in the Mexican state of Veracruz, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Nate, and the storm should not cause significant flooding or damage as it pushes inland and dissipates later today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Nate as it made landfall in the Veracruz state of Mexico near 11 am EDT Sunday, September 11, 2011.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria has managed to organize in the face of the persistent moderate wind shear that has affected it, and now looks a little more like a tropical storm should. Though the center of circulation lies partially exposed to view, satellite imagery shows a large area of heavy thunderstorms lies to the northeast of Maria's center. These rains and the storm's strongest winds lie well away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, though one spiral band is bringing heavy rains to the islands, as seen on Martinique radar. A wind gust of 40 mph was reported on St. Martin at 11 am EDT, and one of 36 mph affected St. Kitts and Nevis at 9 am EDT during a rain squall. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which should allow the storm to grow to hurricane strength by Tuesday. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda, and the island could see sustained winds in the 20 - 40 mph range. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday or Saturday, and residents there should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions late this week.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada yesterday morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 50 - 60 mph across the open Atlantic. On Monday, the storm will pass very close to the northern British Isles, bringing winds of 50 - 60 mph to the offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. Ex-Katia will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and its strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.


Figure 3. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is predicted to pass just north of the British Isles on Monday, bringing a large area 45 - 50 knots (52 - 58 mph, red colors) to the coast. This wind forecast is from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFS model made last night. To convert from knots to mph, multiply by 1.15.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 5 - 6 days from now off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Monday morning. Peace to all this September 11!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good morning all. I apologize for being out of the loop but what is the model confidence on the track for Maria? Are all the dynamic models in agreement?

Quoting islander101010:
stormw and now p541 r.i.p. blog heaven

Did I miss something here?

One is the loneliest number that you'll ever do.



Poor old Maria, all alone in the ATL. Have we hit our mid-season lull?
Methinks corrections will be made on the next ATCF.

TS.Maria's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 11Sept_12pmGMT and ending 12Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the coastline blob at 31.371n81.294w-08GA is the endpoint of the most
recent
previous straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 10.8mph(17.4k/h) on a heading of 276.2degrees(W)
TS.Maria was headed toward passage over GreatInagua,Bahamas ~1day11hours from now

Copy&paste 31.371n81.294w-08ga, 19.0n64.0w-19.6n64.9w, 19.6n64.9w-20.0n65.4w, 20.0n65.4w-20.5n66.0w, 20.5n66.0w-20.6n67.0w, iga, 20.5n66.0w-21.079n73.101w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 12Sept_6amGMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did I miss something here?

One is the loneliest number that you'll ever do.



Poor old Maria, all alone in the ATL. Have we hit our mid-season lull?


yes waiting for mjo to return the models havethe tropics exploding though in a week or so
Link

Looks like she is moving due west and has some convection firing around LLC. Shear destroyed her! Way south of forecast points.. Can't wait for Masters' update and comments
might have a cutoff low off of the east coast? Looks like some very strong convection for this time of day
1007. basti11
the tropics are QUIET in the peak of the hurricane season...i dont see much changing for at least another 10 days if that...by that time the threat for the gulf of mexico should be over...so im confident if we dont get any development for the next 10 days the gulf of mexico is off limits to hurricanes with the cold fronts coming in....
snowbirds coming to florida? maybe. so are the homeless. last yr the owners of the woods in the back had pitbulls chasing them out of their camps good luck to them
THIS BLOG SUCKS A FAT ONE!!! THEY BAN GOOD, ENTERTAINING BLOGGERS!!!! I
WANT MY MONEY BACK, THIS IS AN OUTRAGE!!!! I'M PUTTING JEFF MASTERS ON
IGNORE.
1010. basti11
the AFRICAN TRAIN has just about come to and end for this year...just maybe one last hoorah for the cape verde season then attention switches back to the caribbean sea..
is maria weakening.................
1013. Drakoen
Maria under some heavy-duty shear. LLC completely exposed and racing off to the west.
The Blogg is dead CPR needed
funny how I post something on here and then 15 minutes later someone says the exact same thing! haha
Quoting MrstormX:
I think in all my years, this is probably the least "exciting" hurricane season I have ever witnessed. There have been record amounts of storms, but most were just marginal tropical storms that could barely even maintain any form of convection. Do you all realize we have only had 2 hurricanes this entire season? 2, that ties the basin record for the least amount of hurricanes, in the satellite era. There has been no instability basically all season, and now looking at the SSTs the GOM looks like it is in late fall form already, on top of that CV season is pretty much over.

Now bear in mind I am not complaining because x, y, and z were not "hit" this year; or because Florida wasn't struck with anything, NO. I am simply saying that this season is simply boring, I appreciate tropical cyclones...but this year, the storms have just not been to exciting to track or even to look at.

the season is half over, want to bet we see an above average number of hurricanes by the end of the season? Instability has been below average and wind shear has been above average which seems to favor weak storms, but at least we are getting storms to watch ... However, I am very curious where you got the idea that the GOM SSts were fall-like ... and CV season is over? Maria was a CV storm ... its september?


Looks like a naked Maria swirling toward me.
Quoting aspectre:
1002 AussieStorm "Did I miss something here?"

Except some wild*conspiracy theories, a LOT less than would be surmised from the number and vehemence of comments.
FlaDewey and P451 probably got a short time-out for constantly posting pictures of a banned poster: one with the shower curtains, and the other an airplane photoshop. Since there was no purpose to those postings other than to irritate fellow WUbers...

* Y'all ought to be ashamed of yourselves; especially aquak9 who came up with a doozy that involves a regular poster who wouldn't even have time what with the aftermath of Irene.


Thanks for the info, I did those images. I didn't see what Aquak9 did, care to fill me in via WU-mail?







Quoting aspectre:
1002 AussieStorm "Did I miss something here?"

Except some wild*conspiracy theories, a LOT less than would be surmised from the number and vehemence of comments.
FlaDewey and P451 probably got a short time-out for constantly posting pictures of a banned poster: one with the shower curtains, and the other an airplane photoshop. Since there was no purpose to those postings other than to irritate fellow WUbers and the blog moderator...

* Y'all ought to be ashamed of yourselves; especially aquak9 who came up with a doozy that involves a regular poster who wouldn't even have the time what with the aftermath of Irene.


Thanks for the summary on recent events in the blogsphere. I wasn't on for a few days.

Meanwhile, stations in Ireland are recording higher gusts than this morning, Malin Head now being in the lead. I wonder what this means for Wales and my location. We've had gale force winds since Saturday and I wonder when it'll calm down eventually.
NEW BLOG
1013 Drakoen "Maria under some heavy-duty shear. LLC completely exposed and racing off to the west."

THANKS, with a plus. Was wondering about that weirdly sharp turn. Tracing NHCwebsite coordinates often produce such results, but the ATCF's (now, almost) always produce far less of an angled departure from the previous headings.
1022. WXHEAD
Quoting taistelutipu:


Thanks for the summary on recent events in the blogsphere. I wasn't on for a few days.

Meanwhile, stations in Ireland are recording higher gusts than this morning, Malin Head now being in the lead. I wonder what this means for Wales and my location. We've had gale force winds since Saturday and I wonder when it'll calm down eventually.


P451 and FLDewey are "Perma-banned"
I don't believe they ever did anything to purposely irritate WU bloggers. It was mostly to be humorous.
But I think we all can see, it doesn't take much to irritate some WU bloggers. The theories of exactly why they were banned may make sense to some, but the truth is know one will ever know exactly what they did, especially them.
I think administration was sending us all a message.
Even Taz was banned for 48 hours.
Don't mess around on the Main.
1023. basti11
Quoting STLweatherjunkie:

the season is half over, want to bet we see an above average number of hurricanes by the end of the season? Instability has been below average and wind shear has been above average which seems to favor weak storms, but at least we are getting storms to watch ... However, I am very curious where you got the idea that the GOM SSts were fall-like ... and CV season is over? Maria was a CV storm ... its september?



yes its september and the cold front are rolling down from canada...the gulf temps have cooled 6 drgrees since the last front and we have another one on the way for friday,,,,the african train...just look do you see anything thats developing there...i said maybe 1 more storm to track up the atlantic and it will be over for 2011....
I think those of us living on the Northern GOM are getting near the end of the risk this year for a strong hurricane hit. Fronts are coming, high pressure with dry air is building, SSTs are falling. WHO DAT!
Quoting belizeit:
The Blogg is dead CPR needed
Everybody banned. I hope the sticklers are happy.