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My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:53 PM GMT on February 10, 2012

Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.


Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.

Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.


Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.

Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters
BUCKEYE BIRTH
BUCKEYE BIRTH
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING

Humor Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It feels like 8 degrees outside.My flag has tears in it now.Old man winter has come back with a vengeance .Visability has gone down hill as well.Some of the wet areas have probally turned into ice now.Whooooooa I just saw a trash can get flipped over three times.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's every weather nerd's dream outside.The winds are crazy outside and their blowing the snow around making it look like a blizzard.Pretty impressive.I'm starting to hear damage outside.....My nieghboors wind shingles just got blown off the side of her porch.


I know you like the snow. You must be in your glory. I just like to look at pictures of snow.
Quoting Grothar:


I know you like the snow. You must be in your glory. I just like to look at pictures of snow.
I am Grothar :).I've stayed up past my bed time now to see this crazy weather in action.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I am Grothar :).I've stayed up past my bed time now to see this crazy weather in action.


Enjoy it while you can. I don't have a bedtime anymore. I just fall asleep every 15 minutes. Sort of a nice break in the day.
Eye is really starting to clear.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 12 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (987 hPa) located at 24.9S 179.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 15 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery.

Cloud tops cooling past 6 hours. Organization has decreased in the past 24 hours. Outflow remains good in the eastern flank. The system lies to the south of 250 HPA ridge axis in a low to moderate sheared environment. The system is being steered east-northeast by deep layer mean west southwest flow. Sea surface temperature around 26C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap, yielding DT=3.0, PT=3.0 and MET=3.0. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a east-northeast movement with gradual weakening in the next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 23.9S 177.8W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 23.2S 176.8W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.6S 176.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONE TROPICAL GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 12 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (965 hPa) located at 17.6S 57.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
40 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 17.6S 55.6E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.0S 53.1E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 18.5S 48.1E - DEPRESSION sur Terre
72 HRS: 21.3S 42.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Meteosat7 infrared imagery keeps on showing a rather bad defined eye and last night microwave imagery showed an eyewall existing within more than 25 NM radius from the center. Winds extension has been recalibrated thanks to 0546 AM UTC ASCAT swath. The mid-level barometric col, is currently evacuating southeastwards and system will be undergoing the steering influence of the mi-level ridge rebuilding in its southwest.

This deep mid-level ridge would steer the system on a gradually faster westwards track for the next few days. Significant intensification is no more expected. On and after Monday, Giovanna should undergo a weak to moderate easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. Some weakening is likely before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar Monday night.

The expected landfall area at this time is located between Fenerive northward to Mahanoro southward including the city of Tamatave.

The residual center should come back over seas in the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday within a rather favorable environment. It should track west southwestwards to southwestwards on the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge.

Unhabitants of Mascareignes islands and eastern coasts of Madagascar (specially people who lived within the threaten area cited previously) should continue to closely monitor the progress of this dangerous system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
28F at 05:50 on the GoM, north florida.. clear, waning gibbous moon..
43° in Lake Worth, Fla. With the wind, feels about 38.
Coooooooollllddddd!!!!! 18 degrees with drifting snow and high winds. Finally winter has arrived!
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Coooooooollllddddd!!!!! 18 degrees with drifting snow and high winds. Finally winter has arrived!
Did you see my earlier post????.Wind damage was occurring where I had lived.I saw the winds yesterday night whip around the snow like a blizzard.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
43 in Lake Worth, Fla. With the wind, feels about 38.

morning, 31 here in zephyrhills fl, with a breeze around 8mph. NICE
Naked swirl in South Atlantic off Brazil.

516. fuzed
Sorry if this has been posted before, but it seems new news.
http://www.tacc.utexas.edu/news/feature-stories/2 012/upgrading-the-hurricane-forecast

Texas super computer improves hurricane forecasts (h/t slashdot)
Ok, this should be updated tomorrow, so post it here to compare when it happens, else this gets archived, and I don't know the link to find it.



Will be interesting to see where the warm anomaly moves and how it changes.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Ok, this should be updated tomorrow, so post it here to compare when it happens, else this gets archived, and I don't know the link to find it.



Will be interesting to see where the warm anomaly moves and how it changes.


You can freeze this image by uploading it at imageshack.us. Click url and then put link at space and that is it.

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Naked swirl in South Atlantic off Brazil.


It looks like a clockwise Jose. :P
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


You can freeze this image by uploading it at imageshack,us. Click url and then put link at space and that is it.

Link


I'm silly anyway, all I have to do is save the thing to my HD, but I rarely do that, so I sort of...forget...


I have no clue why I have a 500GB HD, because I never use more than a few megabytes of it...sad...
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

It looks like a clockwise Jose. :P


They were looking at it but forget about development.

TXST21 KNES 121214
TCSSTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 12/1145Z

C. 38.0S

D. 45.7W

E. THREE/MET-9

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS... SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. FT IS BASED ON DT.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

Quoting washingtonian115:
Did you see my earlier post????.Wind damage was occurring where I had lived.I saw the winds yesterday night whip around the snow like a blizzard.


Yes, it was crazy last night. The entire house was vibrating from the wind and the neighbors trash cans blew 200 yards down the street. My PWS recorded gusts to 48 MPH at 1:32 AM last night. We also recorded 0.3 inches of snow, mostly from 10:00 to Midnight.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yes, it was crazy last night. The entire house was vibrating from the wind and the neighbors trash cans blew 200 yards down the street. My PWS recorded gusts to 48 MPH at 1:32 AM last night. We also recorded 0.3 inches of snow, mostly from 10:00 to Midnight.
Those winds made the windchill feel as though it was in the single to sometimes even -2 outside.You could here things that weren't tied down be thrown around.Its still blustery outside even now.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

It looks like a clockwise Jose. :P


They spin clockwise south of the equator !
Jasmine has gone from monday into sunday i believe :D
Quoting MissNadia:


They spin clockwise south of the equator !
has a hurricane or Cyclone ever crossed the equator that we now of and/or what's the closest one has ever come to?
Morning all. Enjoying a cool breezy day so far here in Nassau, Bahamas. The sun is out, so I'll not be complaining about the chill.... lol. It's open windows and fresh air, especially since we had some rain yesterday along with the frontal passage to keep the dust down. It seems to be shaping up to be a great Sunday, so if you don't hear too much more from me you know what happened....

Enjoy your day! Before we know it, we'll be back to nail-biting and blogging over Sunday dinner.... lol

I'm pretty sure we've had a disturbance begin very near the Equator in the Indian Ocean, but don't remember ever hearing of one that crossed that line. However, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it has happened in the Indian Ocean. They get some freaky stuff over there from time to time.
you can thank the developing storm off the NC/VA coast for the high winds from the NW. sitting at 997mb, forecast to deepen just like the one before it and roar across Nova Scotia as a 974mb storm.
Quoting JNCali:
has a hurricane or Cyclone ever crossed the equator that we now of and/or what's the closest one has ever come to?


Not possible. The Coriolis effect would not exist anymore and would cause all spinning to stop after 5 degrees N/S. I mean a disturbance could change hemispheres I guess but a full-fledged storm couldn't cross over the equator.
Hmmm.... supposed to get down to 59 here tonight and 64 tomorrow night... looks like this is the Feb cooldown.... it still feels weird, though, because we've been having rain, including some flooding-type downpours, since the beginning of the month. It's not that usual to have heavy rain, especially during the day, in February; rain on 8 of the first 11 days is very unusual...

Here's one that came close to the equator.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. Enjoying a cool breezy day so far here in Nassau, Bahamas. The sun is out, so I'll not be complaining about the chill.... lol. It's open windows and fresh air, especially since we had some rain yesterday along with the frontal passage to keep the dust down. It seems to be shaping up to be a great Sunday, so if you don't hear too much more from me you know what happened....

Enjoy your day! Before we know it, we'll be back to nail-biting and blogging over Sunday dinner.... lol

I envy you..I would love to be in the Bahamas on a day such as this..:)
Quoting Grothar:


Enjoy it while you can. I don't have a bedtime anymore. I just fall asleep every 15 minutes. Sort of a nice break in the day.
Some tasty Extra Strength Geritol for Ancients is a terrific sleep aid..yum..
Quoting AussieStorm:
Currently on the Gold Coast, Queensland. (video)









Cool post Aussie.
TRMM of Giovanna. Click pick for very large quicktime movie.. right throught he center during eyewall replacement.



Cloudsat just her too. Impressive rain..
TRMM 99S
Snowing in South Texas.........
Quoting cedarparktxguy:
Snowing in South Texas.........
Del Rio is white, that does not happen too often, should not last long, it is suppose to warm up pretty good soon? I think most of this will turn to rain as warm air overrides cold air.
Wow... Snow in S TX.... It does snow in the DFW area, I know from experience, but S TX seems pretty far south. However, I'm sure TEXANS are not complaining, and are willing to take whatever precipitation however they can get it.... lol
Quoting Skyepony:
TRMM of Giovanna. Click pick for very large quicktime movie.. right throught he center during eyewall replacement.



Cloudsat just caught the left side. Impressive rain..
Looks like Madagascar will get whacked pretty bad Skye..Good morning to you.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Not possible. The Coriolis effect would not exist anymore and would cause all spinning to stop after 5 degrees N/S. I mean a disturbance could change hemispheres I guess but a full-fledged storm couldn't cross over the equator.
So the mafia controls weather at the equator... Don Coriolis :)
Quoting JNCali:
So the mafia controls weather at the equator... Don Coriolis :)
Good one Cali.
29 in Gulf Breeze first freeze this year bird bath is frozen!!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow... Snow in S TX.... It does snow in the DFW area, I know from experience, but S TX seems pretty far south. However, I'm sure TEXANS are not complaining, and are willing to take whatever precipitation however they can get it.... lol
with out a doubt... What effect does La Nina/El Nino have on the formation of the TDR~ TX Death Ridge?
Quoting hydrus:
Good one Cali.
a little Sunday am humor (very little for some I'm sure.. the jr.highers are lost)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... supposed to get down to 59 here tonight and 64 tomorrow night... looks like this is the Feb cooldown.... it still feels weird, though, because we've been having rain, including some flooding-type downpours, since the beginning of the month. It's not that usual to have heavy rain, especially during the day, in February; rain on 8 of the first 11 days is very unusual...
Your SUMMER should be very interesting......
It looks like Giovanna is finally trying to strengthen. Considering it is currently at 100 knots, I may be able to believe it will make landfall somewhere in the 110-120 knot range.

Quoting hydrus:
Looks like Madagascar will get whacked pretty bad Skye..Good morning to you.


Yeah, should strengthen just a little more. I think I went 115kts peak but I'll lower that to 110kts.


It was a cold morning here. Was expecting ~35ºF for a low, saw 33.8ºF. Brought in the zone 10 plants, everything else looks okay.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
29 in Gulf Breeze first freeze this year bird bath is frozen!!
Twelve degrees here on the plateau. Wind ten to fifteen. Wind chill near zero.By tomorrow it will have been below freezing for over forty-eight hours. coldest so far this winter.
Quoting Skyepony:


Yeah, should strengthen just a little more. I think I went 115kts peak but I'll lower that to 110kts.


It was a cold morning here. Was expecting ~35ºF for a low, saw 33.8ºF. Brought in the zone 10 plants, everything else looks okay.
You sound like Mom. The plants are like her pets..Our trees and flowers have been crazy around here. I was outside wearing shorts and a t-shirt a few days ago. Virtually unheard of this time of year.
Dropped down to 19F here in southeastern North Carolina last night, with winds near 40 mph.

Wind chills were below 10F.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dropped down to 19F here in southeastern North Carolina last night, with winds near 40 mph.

Wind chills were below 10F.
40 mph wow. Makes for a nasty evening. We had a lot of that in 08 and 09 with quite a bit of damage.
Quoting hydrus:
40 mph wow. Makes for a nasty evening. We had a lot of that in 08 and 09 with quite a bit of damage.
WHEW, Stay warm up there, dropped into the 30's here last night, back down there tonight too and a cold breeze right now,Tampa must be freezing away from the coast I bet
Quoting hydrus:
40 mph wow. Makes for a nasty evening. We had a lot of that in 08 and 09 with quite a bit of damage.

Yeah, it sounded like Irene all over again at times.

I just wish it would snow here. :\

Cold air is pointless without snow, ice, sleet, freezing rain, etc. Of course, it's bad for drivers. :P
37F in NOLA on the Parade Route.


Bundle up.
Models are in better agreement today..



Quoting hydrus:
You sound like Mom. The plants are like her pets..Our trees and flowers have been crazy around here. I was outside wearing shorts and a t-shirt a few days ago. Virtually unheard of this time of year.


They are more like my living pantry. They die & I'll have to pay for fruits & veggies. Been so warm we've had the slip & slide out some this last week.
Quoting JNCali:
with out a doubt... What effect does La Nina/El Nino have on the formation of the TDR~ TX Death Ridge?
That is a good question, don't even bring up the Texas Death Ridge that killed this state last year. I am hoping for a tropical system this Summer and hopefully a El Nino soon. We are having a wet La Nina which only happens 1 in every 5 La Ninas so this state is very fortunate this year so far. I have water standing in my yard past 2 weeks but 50 miles northwest of here Lakes are down 55 feet so some areas are getting alot of rain and so are not getting much at all.
Quoting Skyepony:
Models are in better agreement today..





They are more like my living pantry. They die & I'll have to pay for fruits & veggies. Been so warm we've had the slip & slide out some this last week.
I wish I had some pics to show you. The warm weather here is welcome, but the mets are warning us of a higher risk of tornadoes and severe weather due to the La-nina and the warm gulf. We have not been to lucky with the tornadoes the past dozen years in Tennessee.
Quoting Patrap:
37F in NOLA on the Parade Route.


Bundle up.
37 degrees..hhhaaaaa !....sweater weather at da most..:)
Quoting JNCali:
has a hurricane or Cyclone ever crossed the equator that we now of and/or what's the closest one has ever come to?


Anyone remember this one, Agni in 2004. It hold a reocord of some kind. Look it up and read it. It is quite interesting. It might answer your question.

yeah it was quite the night 2 inches if rain a centimeter of freezing rain and 2 cm of snow .... lots of wind!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, it sounded like Irene all over again at times.

I just wish it would snow here. :\

Cold air is pointless without snow, ice, sleet, freezing rain, etc. Of course, it's bad for drivers. :P
Well it SNOWED here.HA IN YOUR FACE.(Points finger).
Quoting Grothar:


Anyone remember this one, Agni in 2004. It hold a reocord of some kind. Look it up and read it. It is quite interesting. It might answer your question.



Link
Quoting Grothar:


Anyone remember this one, Agni in 2004. It hold a reocord of some kind. Look it up and read it. It is quite interesting. It might answer your question.

Courtesy of Wiki..:)..While the system was organizing, the center crossed the equator to reach about 0.5° S, thus becoming an anticyclonic circulation in the southern hemisphere. This was unusual, as the Coriolis effect is nonresistant along the equator—the Coriolis effect refers to planetary vorticity, which provides the spin in a cyclone.[1][4] The JTWC later assessed the system as remaining in the northern hemisphere, reaching as far south as 0.7° N, or about 80 km (50 mi) from the equator.[5] After the circulation organized further beneath the convection, the JTWC issued another TCFA at 0300 UTC on November 28.[6] Three hours later, the agency classified the system as Tropical Cyclone 05A about 1300 km (800 mi) southwest of the southern tip of India.[7] In a post-season analysis, the JTWC estimated the cyclone became a tropical storm six hours earlier.[5] At around the same time, the IMD classified it as a "low pressure area... likely to become well marked."Cyclone Agni after formation, just to the north of the equator
Krewe of Carrollton Rolls at NOON Down the Traditional St. Charles Route from Napoleon Ave.

Quoting hydrus:
Courtesy of Wiki..:)..While the system was organizing, the center crossed the equator to reach about 0.5° S, thus becoming an anticyclonic circulation in the southern hemisphere. This was unusual, as the Coriolis effect is nonresistant along the equator—the Coriolis effect refers to planetary vorticity, which provides the spin in a cyclone.[1][4] The JTWC later assessed the system as remaining in the northern hemisphere, reaching as far south as 0.7° N, or about 80 km (50 mi) from the equator.[5] After the circulation organized further beneath the convection, the JTWC issued another TCFA at 0300 UTC on November 28.[6] Three hours later, the agency classified the system as Tropical Cyclone 05A about 1300 km (800 mi) southwest of the southern tip of India.[7] In a post-season analysis, the JTWC estimated the cyclone became a tropical storm six hours earlier.[5] At around the same time, the IMD classified it as a "low pressure area... likely to become well marked."Cyclone Agni after formation, just to the north of the equator


You and hydrus got it, Geek. And here I thought all of you only read my entries for the laughs.:)

Look at this track. It really did come close.

That's a Bad Mammy Jammie Gro..


Madagascar is in my thought's.



Quoting Grothar:

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Looks a lot better than yesterday.
Looks like Giovanna solved its core problems and should now start strengthening. You know, I probably shouldn't hope for RI, but an RI now would make her peak tomorrow which would weaken her a bit for landfall in 2 days. If she slowly strengthens like she is now, who knows how intense she might be for landfall...





Full white band around eye, Dvorak will likely come back with 110-120kts at next update.

Well we got Giovanna last night..old tho, new one pass in few hours :D
NOLA Parade cam volume mic is Hot as they prepare for the Parade to start.

LIVE webcam, Carrollton Mardi Gras Parade
GFS has a brief period of snow in ym forecast again....

:/
Quoting SPLbeater:
GFS has a brief period of snow in ym forecast again....

:/

Lemme see.
Well....



Giovanna is getting strong.

It's pretty though.

I think we have a period of rapid intensification occurring.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lemme see.

Notice the little bitty blue bar showing snowfall. no accumilation.


No accumilation. but falling even so...
Link
Quoting SPLbeater:




No accumilation. but falling even so...
Link

Don't count on any snow at all.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't count on any snow at all.


on i dont, it hasnt been consistent. i dont want it anyways lol i want a thunderstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Looks like the eye is clearing a little.

Pretty strong?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think we have a period of rapid intensification occurring.



i dont think that is rapid intensifcation, because the dvorak fails to give realisit intensity with a pinhole, or an eye covered with high clouds. its been around category 1 intensity ever since the pinhole started filling in. :D
.
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve/Loop

Click Image for Loop

ZOOM is Available

Quoting SPLbeater:


i dont think that is rapid intensifcation, because the dvorak fails to give realisit intensity with a pinhole, or an eye covered with high clouds. its been around category 1 intensity ever since the pinhole started filling in. :D


4 hours ago:



2 hours ago:



now:



It isn't super rapid, but it's quick enough.
Quoting yqt1001:


4 hours ago:



2 hours ago:



now:



It isn't super rapid, but it's quick enough.


Yeah, that definitely isn't weakening or staying the same.
Snowing and Sleeting in South Central Texas, well above freezing though, 60s Monday and 70s by Tuesday what a roller coaster
TACC's Ranger supercomputer helps researchers predict (hurricane) storm intensity with greater accuracy

TACC Link

(I don't brake for trolls)
TPXS12 PGTW 121803

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)

B. 12/1730Z

C. 18.0S

D. 55.6E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. AN IRREGULAR OW EYE
MEASURES 17NM FROM E TO W AND 9NM FROM N TO S. THE W
SURROUNDING RING MEASURES 37NM YIELDING A DT OF 6.5.
INTENSIFICATION FROM THE 24HR FT YIELDS A 6.0. PT AGREES. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LANZETTA
Quoting yqt1001:
She is really beautiful
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
CYCLONE TROPICAL GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 12 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (962 hPa) located at 18.0S 55.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
40 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 18.4S 52.7E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.8S 50.3E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 21.0S 44.8E - DEPRESSION sur Terre
72 HRS: 23.0S 40.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Giovanna is strengthening again ... it is evident when comparing microwave imagery of this morning and this afternoon with a stronger convection within the eyewall and a ragged eye feature on satellite imagery that tends to become better defined on both microwave imagery and radar imagery from la reunion.

3 hourly and 6 hourly averaged DT are respectively at 5.4 and 4.9 with a raw DT at 6.0 since 1730 PM UTC. If this trends continue, it is likely, that the short term intensity forecast needs to be push up.

System is now undergoing the steering influence of the mi-level ridge rebuilding in its south. This deep mid-level ridge would steer the system on a gradually faster westwards track for the next few days.

On and after Monday, Giovanna should undergo a weak to moderate easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. Some weakening is likely before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar Monday night. The expected landfall area at this time is located between Fenerive northward to Mahanoro southward including the city of Tamatave.

The residual center should come back over seas in the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday with still some uncertainty about the potential of re-intensification. The current forecast remains in the path of the previous one at this time but could be more aggressive according to latest numerical weather prediction outputs. It should track west southwestwards to southwestwards on the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge before to be again within a barometric col pattern.

Unhabitants of Mascareignes Islands and eastern coasts of Madagascar (specially people who lived within the threaten area cited previously) should continue to closely monitor the progress of this dangerous system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Anyone know of any webcams in the area that Giovanna will make landfall?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yeah, that definitely isn't weakening or staying the same.

Nope.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone know of any webcams in the area that Giovanna will make landfall?

Nope.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone know of any webcams in the area that Giovanna will make landfall?


Uh, that's not Japan. There's probably not many people living in Madagascar that have the luxury of keeping the latest electronic devices.

Their per capita GDP is $940, so unless they've stolen computers or cell phones, I doubt most people there have ever heard of one, much less seen one or own one.
We had the coldest night of the entire winter here in Pinellas County, a low of 33 and a wind chill of 22. I went camping with my friends in the back yard just for the fun of it, was brutally thrilling, getting out of bed was hard lol.

I'm thinking we'll break the freezing mark tonight!

Found this Madagascar Surf site.. has a nice wind forecast map with 3 hour increments http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?regio n=57&res=&type=wind
Link If someone can post the animation it would be great...
Giovanna is looking a lot better today.
Manakara is in the bullseye for Giovanna, I hope their huts are up to codeimg src="Manakara Photos
This photo of Manakara is courtesy of TripAdvisor">
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone know of any webcams in the area that Giovanna will make landfall?

Task of the Evening?
They will have some sort of TV station there and they will no doubt be monitoring the landfall for broadcast. Several people will have mobile phones with cameras in them as well."Task," find the name of the station and see if they are on the net, which they probably are.
I think a lot of people there speak French as well as some English. Webcams are probably only in very few locations in the city's but they are hurricane aware to a great extent in Madagascar.
You guys were right. I didn't think she would come back like this. Looks pretty strong.

These are Baobab Trees from Madagascar. I wonder how well they handle high winds.
Quoting Grothar:
You guys were right. I didn't think she would come back like this. Looks pretty strong.


I'll always cede the wisdom of age to the enthusiasm of youth but I would hazard a guess that this storm will not be far off on track to go over the capital of Antananarivo, which lies roughly in the center of the island. Population of the Madagascar is about 30 million and a lot of construction is of poor quality for resisting hurricanes.
I thought that Greek name was long.King Andrianampoinimerina (1787–1810)
Quoting hydrus:
I thought that Greek name was long.King Andrianampoinimerina (1787–1810)


It's good that they invented loin cloths by that time.
Quoting hydrus:
These are Baobab Trees from Madagascar. I wonder how well they handle high winds.


To the North or Madagascar lie the Seychelles Islands. The Coco de Mer grows there. As far as I remember, the only place in the world. This palm species is know to grow the biggest seed or nuts in the world.

From Wiki:

The Coco de Mer is the most interesting species of the six monospecific endemic palms in Seychelles since it is the "only true case of island gigantism among Seychelles flowering plants, a unique feature of Seychelles vegetation" (Proctor, 1984). It is one of the most universally well-known plants and holds three botanical records; the largest fruit so far recorded weighed 42 kg; the mature seeds weighing up to 17.6 kg are the world's heaviest;[2][3][4] and the female flowers are the largest of any palm.[3][4]

Of the six endemic palms it is the only dioecious species, with male and female flowers located on different plants.[5]


Quoting PlazaRed:

I'll always cede the wisdom of age to the enthusiasm of youth but I would hazard a guess that this storm will not be far off on track to go over the capital of Antananarivo, which lies roughly in the center of the island. Population of the Madagascar is about 30 million and a lot of construction is of poor quality for resisting hurricanes.


You could be very close. I don't remember the last time they were hit by a storm of this size. However, I am sure one of the younger bloggers will have the information for us in no time. Come on Jedkins and TropicalAnalyst, or Cyber do your stuff!
Quoting PlazaRed:

Task of the Evening?
They will have some sort of TV station there and they will no doubt be monitoring the landfall for broadcast. Several people will have mobile phones with cameras in them as well."Task," find the name of the station and see if they are on the net, which they probably are.
I think a lot of people there speak French as well as some English. Webcams are probably only in very few locations in the city's but they are hurricane aware to a great extent in Madagascar.


I've only dug up one webcam that's even somewhat close to the projected landfall. No streaming, and it updates every few minutes via F5. :P

Link

This one is located at Andilana beach.
Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Giovanna:

Quoting CybrTeddy:

Several hours old.
Quoting Grothar:


You could be very close. I don't remember the last time they were hit by a storm of this size. However, I am sure one of the younger bloggers will have the information for us in no time. Come on Jedkins and TropicalAnalyst, or Cyber do your stuff!


March 2011 - Bingiza

Not as strong or as huge, but an ITC nonetheless.



Quoting RTSplayer:


I'm silly anyway, all I have to do is save the thing to my HD, but I rarely do that, so I sort of...forget...


I have no clue why I have a 500GB HD, because I never use more than a few megabytes of it...sad...


Your user name is RTSplayer yet you use only a few megs out of that massive 500 GB drive? I find that very very hard to believe, lol.
SH122012 - Tropical Cyclone (>=96 kt) GIOVANNA


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)/LOOP

Click image for Loop

ZOOM is available.


Quoting yqt1001:


March 2011 - Bingiza

Not as strong or as huge, but an ITC nonetheless.





Thanks yqt. Only a year ago, huh? See what happens when you get old.
Interesting the king only lived to be 23, I don't think his attire would be suitable to combat a strong wind.

The capital is also called,Tana, we can imagine that planing and building regulations might be a trifle lacking, here's a line from a link I found:-

" Tana is somewhat typical of many cities in a developing country: lots of poverty, pollution, and crumbling infrastructure interspersed with modern cafes, restaurants and shops selling western goods."

The guys are going to need a lot of prayers!



Quoting Jedkins01:


Your user name is RTSplayer yet you use only a few megs out of that massive 500 GB drive? I find that very very hard to believe, lol.


Starcraft 2 and Crysis are the only two modern games I have installed on my computer right now.

Well, ok so it's more than a few megs, but that's just the game file anyway.

I do keep some replays both of wins and losses.

I'm not like a lot of people. I don't keep endless archives of music or videos.

I have a cousin who uses up multiple HDs on computers. You can only watch so many music and videos, and only have a decent knowledge of so much in software, so I can't imagine why any one person really needs all this stuff anyway, after some reasonable limits.
Quoting PlazaRed:
Interesting the king only lived to be 23, I don't think his attire would be suitable to combat a strong wind.

The capital is also called,Tana, we can imagine that planing and building regulations might be a trifle lacking, here's a line from a link I found:-

" Tana is somewhat typical of many cities in a developing country: lots of poverty, pollution, and crumbling infrastructure interspersed with modern cafes, restaurants and shops selling western goods."

The guys are going to need a lot of prayers!





Right now, it seems the landfall will occur at or near Toamasina, which looks to be both populated and a major port. From Google Earth there are also a lot of poorer areas. That will not end well.
Quoting Grothar:


It's good that they invented loin cloths by that time.
Yes indeed.
Hurricane Ophelia at 120 knot peak:



Cyclone Giovanna currently (120 knots supposedly):



As an estimate, Giovanna is around 150-155 mph right now.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Right now, it seems the landfall will occur at or near Toamasina, which looks to be both populated and a major port. From Google Earth there are also a lot of poorer areas. That will not end well.


Here's the best I can find on it.
Uses a different name from Toamasina, but its the same place:-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toamasina

Looks flat and vulnerable.
Quoting PlazaRed:
Interesting the king only lived to be 23, I don't think his attire would be suitable to combat a strong wind.

The capital is also called,Tana, we can imagine that planing and building regulations might be a trifle lacking, here's a line from a link I found:-

" Tana is somewhat typical of many cities in a developing country: lots of poverty, pollution, and crumbling infrastructure interspersed with modern cafes, restaurants and shops selling western goods."

The guys are going to need a lot of prayers!



I am hoping this storm will undergo an eyewall replacement cycle as it moves onshore, otherwise there may well be a terrible disaster.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Ophelia at 120 knot peak:



Cyclone Giovanna currently (120 knots supposedly):



As an estimate, Giovanna is around 150-155 mph right now.


Once she fills in the little weak spot tin the Northeast quadrant of the eyewall then BOOM will commence.




Tracks from 00Z (latest all are updated)





Quoting hydrus:
I am hoping this storm will undergo an eyewall replacement cycle as it moves onshore, otherwise there may well be a terrible disaster.


yes
yes it will be
Quoting Jedkins01:
We had the coldest night of the entire winter here in Pinellas County, a low of 33 and a wind chill of 22. I went camping with my friends in the back yard just for the fun of it, was brutally thrilling, getting out of bed was hard lol.

I'm thinking we'll break the freezing mark tonight!

Where in Pinellas are you located? I was really surprised that we got as cold as we did last night, because after the sun went down last night, the temperature really took its time dropping.
remarks:
121500z position near 17.7s 56.0e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 12s (giovanna), located approximately 200 nm
north-northeast of La Reunion, had tracked westward at 10
knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite
imagery shows that tc 12s is struggling to maintain a cloud-free
eye. A 121108z AMSU-b image indicates an approximately 35 nm wide
eye. Comparison of this AMSU-b image to AMSU-b images in the past 6-
12 hours reveals a weakening in the deep central convection
surrounding the low-level circulation center (LLCC). The current
position is based on agreeable pgtw, knes, fmee, and fimp center
fixes along with the AMSU-b image with high confidence. The current
intensity is based on Dvorak estimates of 90-102 knots from these
reporting agencies. Upper-level analysis continues to show a self-
induced meso-anticyclone over the LLCC which is producing excellent
divergence aloft and weak vertical wind shear (vws). Animated water
vapor imagery also continues to show excellent radial outflow. Tc
giovanna's track speed had accelerated over the past six hours as a
deep-layered subtropical ridge (str) builds in from the south. The
system will track westwards along the northern periphery of this str
during the next two days. During this time tc 12s should slightly
intensify as it makes landfall over central Madagascar just after
tau 36. During tau 48 the LLCC will weaken significantly due to the
frictional forces of topographic interaction. By tau 72 the system
should emerge over the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel and
track southwestwards along the western periphery of the str. By tau
96, the LLCC may head towards a slight col region in between the str
to the east and a building ridge over southern Africa. By tau 120
the new steering influence of the str over southern Africa may
deflect tc 12s on a more west-northwestwards track into southern
Mozambique where the system will begin to dissipate overland. During
its transit over the Mozambique Channel the system should only
slightly re-intensify due to the unfavorable influences of vws and
limited time over water. Numerical model guidance is in tight
agreement until the LLCC tracks over Madagascar and emerges over The
Channel and is split into two main groupings. The ECMWF, NOGAPS, and
GFS lie right of consensus and the GFDN and EGRR lie to the left.
This forecast favors the first grouping to the right of consensus
based on more members and past model performance. Maximum
significant wave height at 121200z is 26 feet. Next warnings at
130300z and 131500z.//
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:




Tracks from 00Z (latest all are updated)







The "average" track looks good, but I disagree with the forecast intensity. I'm probably missing something, but there doesn't appear to be anything that could impede intensification.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The "average" track looks good, but I disagree with the forecast intensity. I'm probably missing something, but there doesn't appear to be anything that could impede intensification. I think this will hit at least as a cat 4.


May only want to consider JTWC and the GFDN, the others are global models that don't have the resolution for accurate intensity, the COAMPS does but it's track seems unrealistic.
Madagascar's Elevation Map. Areas in yellow are 1500 meters above sea level.



Current forecast takes the center of the storm just to the south of Antananarivo, which is also around 2000 meters in elevation. There is going to be a lot of problems with this system I fear. I hope people there are taking necessary precautions. Those strongest core of winds are going to be those 100m above the surface and greater. With those elevations we are going to see some impressive wind gust far inland I'm afraid. Then there's the flooding and mudslides....

We need another eye wall replacement cycle to occur again before landfall to trip this storm up a bit. It is looking scary with -80 C tops wrapping fulling developed CDO is not a good sign.
You all are going to like this one.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


May only want to consider JTWC and the GFDN, the others are global models that don't have the resolution for accurate intensity, the COAMPS does but it's track seems unrealistic.


Actually edited my post to remove the cat 4 statement after reading hydrus's post. Seems like it's having a couple issue for now, but I still think it will intensify more than predicted.
I think there may be an eye.


Giovanna is probably around 130 knots at this time. When that very intense area of convection in the northern semicircle of the storm wraps all the way around the eye, then we'll know we have a Category 5 cyclone on our hands.


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

I was fooling around just now, and was wondering if anyone on here plays chess and knows their "real" rating, and can try this and see how it rates them.

Elo Rating Estimator

I did this in about 10 minutes total, maybe less, and got a rating of 1550.



According to a few searches online, I found that 1600 is considered the average among regular players i.e. chess club members.

Another site claims that it takes about 5 years of practicing 4 to 5 hours per day to get a 1600 rating.

That's 7300 to 9100 hours.

I doubt I've played anywhere near that much chess in my life combined, and almost none of it was against humans.

I have not played chess against a human opponent in 8 years, and only play against the computer from time to time.

I'm trying to figure out if this thing is over-estimating me or under-estimating me.

I searched online to find out some benchmarks for Windows Chess Titans and Winboard engines and there it was claimed that Chess Titans on the 6th difficulty beats an allegedly 2300 rated engine, but that was disputed.

I have never won a game against the Winboard engine! Lol, but it's super-human, like 3000 anyway.


So anyway, just wondering if there are any players on here who know their official rating, and can test this thing. I'm just wondering for some reason what my rating is.


It seems kind of silly that I would get a 1550 that easily if 1600 is supposedly a club average, and I hardly ever play.


If this is real, maybe I should find some people to play with or something.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Ophelia at 120 knot peak:



Cyclone Giovanna currently (120 knots supposedly):



As an estimate, Giovanna is around 150-155 mph right now.


i would give it 135mph or 140mph. the eye isnt symetrical in that image :D
Quoting Grothar:
I think there may be an eye.


It looks like an eye...
616 Xyrus2000 "...webcam...at Andilana beach..."

Adrialana Beach is located on Nosy Be Island(NOS) off the northwest coast of Madagascar.

The center of Giovanna (red dot at latest reported position) is (JTWC)predicted to hit just south of Toamasina(TMM)...
(Fortunately for Madagascar's largest port, that's the weak*side of the storm.)
...then proceeds on a path that takes it even closer south of the capital city of Antananarivo(TNR). There's s'poseta be a webcam operating there at Hotel Manoir Rouge, but it seems to be out of order.
The distance between TMM and TNR is ~134miles(216kilometres)

* Spin is clockwise, the opposite to that in the NorthernHemisphere
Quoting SPLbeater:


i would give it 135mph or 140mph. the eye isnt symetrical in that image :D

What? Yeah it is.
Quoting aspectre:
616 Xyrus2000 "webcam...at Andilana beach

Adrialana Beach is located on Nosy Be Island(NOS) off the northwest coast of Madagascar.

The center of Giovanna (red dot at latest reported position) is predicted to hit just south of Toamasina(TMM)...
(Fortunately for Madagascar's largest port, that's the weak side of the storm.)
...then proceed on a path that takes it even closer south of the capital city of Antananarivo(TNR). There's s'poseta be a webcam operating there at Hotel Manoir Rouge, but it seems to be out of order.
The distance between TMM and TNR is ~134miles(216kilometres)

* Spin is clockwise, the opposite to that in the NorthernHemisphere


Yeah, that was the only working webcam I found. And with this storm, I don't really think it makes all that much difference which side hits the city.

Link

Currently 5.74 million are in the radius of hurricane force winds, and most of them aren't exactly living in anything that could be considered up to hurricane code.
It LOOKs like a middle grade category 4, so maybe 140mph 1-minute sustained.


But looks could be deceiving.

Eye is symetrical, but the south side of the CDO looks pretty eroded right now on infrared, so it's unlikely to be a high-end cat 4 storm.
Quoting RTSplayer:
It LOOKs like a middle grade category 4, so maybe 140mph 1-minute sustained.


But looks could be deceiving.

Eye is symetrical, but the south side of the CDO looks pretty eroded right now on infrared, so it's unlikely to be a high-end cat 4 storm.

It is currently at 140 mph.

656. j2008
Quoting RTSplayer:
It LOOKs like a middle grade category 4, so maybe 140mph 1-minute sustained.


But looks could be deceiving.

Eye is symetrical, but the south side of the CDO looks pretty eroded right now on infrared, so it's unlikely to be a high-end cat 4 storm.
Highest wind speed is in the eyewall and as you said its symmetrical so, a high end cat 4 is very likely right now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's already at 145 mph...



I was going to say 140 to 145, but whatever.


High end is 150 to 155, i.e. "borderline 5".

131 to 155 is 25mph range, including both ends.

145 is still exactly in the middle 5mph of the 25mph range of cat 4...


"Low end" cat 4 would be 131 to 135, etc.

I wasn't saying it wasn't cat 4.

Was saying it wasn't 150 or 155.
Quoting RTSplayer:


I was going to say 140 to 145, but whatever.


High end is 150 to 155, i.e. "borderline 5".

131 to 155 is 25mph range, including both ends.

145 is still exactly in the middle 5mph of the 25mph range of cat 4...

Sorry, I corrected my post. It DOES have winds of 140 mph.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sorry, I corrected my post. It DOES have winds of 140 mph.


Yes, I know.

After about 110mph, I can usually guess the speed within plus or minus 5mph from a still frame.
Quoting RTSplayer:
I was fooling around just now, and was wondering if anyone on here plays chess and knows their "real" rating, and can try this and see how it rates them.

Elo Rating Estimator

I did this in about 10 minutes total, maybe less, and got a rating of 1550.



According to a few searches online, I found that 1600 is considered the average among regular players i.e. chess club members.

Another site claims that it takes about 5 years of practicing 4 to 5 hours per day to get a 1600 rating.

That's 7300 to 9100 hours.

I doubt I've played anywhere near that much chess in my life combined, and almost none of it was against humans.

I have not played chess against a human opponent in 8 years, and only play against the computer from time to time.

I'm trying to figure out if this thing is over-estimating me or under-estimating me.

I searched online to find out some benchmarks for Windows Chess Titans and Winboard engines and there it was claimed that Chess Titans on the 6th difficulty beats an allegedly 2300 rated engine, but that was disputed.

I have never won a game against the Winboard engine! Lol, but it's super-human, like 3000 anyway.


So anyway, just wondering if there are any players on here who know their official rating, and can test this thing. I'm just wondering for some reason what my rating is.


It seems kind of silly that I would get a 1550 that easily if 1600 is supposedly a club average, and I hardly ever play.


If this is real, maybe I should find some people to play with or something.



i just took the test

Result:


Your estimated Elo rating is

1080
Quoting j2008:
Highest wind speed is in the eyewall and as you said its symmetrical so, a high end cat 4 is very likely right now.


In order to get to 155 to 160 range, it basicly needs a solid shield of yellow symetrically around the eye.

Then around 160 and above, it gets weird, because the "colder is stronger" thing does not seem to always hold true.

I've noticed some annular storms can maintain category 5 for a while even while having significantly warmer cloud tops, so the temperature is not always a perfect indicator.
Quoting RTSplayer:


In order to get to 155 to 160 range, it basicly needs a solid shield of yellow symetrically around the eye.

Then around 160 and above, it gets weird, because the "colder is stronger" thing does not seem to always hold true.

I've noticed some annular storms can maintain category 5 for a while even while having significantly warmer cloud tops, so the temperature is not always a perfect indicator.

Yes, take for example Katrina.

Hi everyone. I've lurked on this site for months and have learned a lot from all the discussion so I decided to finally make an account. I hope I can contribute in some way to the blog.
Meanwhile, in weather news: Giovanna is a beast! Madagascar better be prepared for this. She is definitely a solid Cat 4, potentially heading for Cat 5.
665. j2008
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Hi everyone. I've lurked on this site for months and have learned a lot from all the discussion so I decided to finally make an account. I hope I can contribute in some way to the blog.
Meanwhile, in weather news: Giovanna is a beast! Madagascar better be prepared for this. She is definitely a solid Cat 4, potentially heading for Cat 5.
Welcome to the blog, tons of good educated people around here, if you ever have a question just ask.
Raw T score is getting up there..Adjusted is still a bit lower but kinda come to it's plateau's end judging by it's past..it's up or down from here. I'll go with up..it is coming into warmer water now.

Media.......... and silly titles and silly writing.
Link

Sun points a loaded gun at us

......As solar activity builds toward an expected peak in 2013, a double-barreled sunspot has been doubling in size over the past couple of days and now has the potential to shoot significant eruptions in our direction.

And in other news, it appears Fukushima is getting hot once again.
Link

....Concern is growing that the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan is no longer stable after temperature readings suggested one of its damaged reactors was reheating.

The plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco), said the temperature inside No 2 reactor – one of three that suffered meltdown after last year's earthquake and tsunami – may have reached 82C on Sunday.........


But not to worry, from the end of the article.......

.........."We believe the state of cold shutdown is being maintained," said Junichi Matsumoto, a company spokesman. "Rather than the actual temperature rising, we believe there is high possibility that the thermometer concerned is displaying erroneous data."............
ECMWF has some strong winds for the eastern seaboard once again in 240hr forecast.
670. j2008
Quoting RTSplayer:


In order to get to 155 to 160 range, it basicly needs a solid shield of yellow symetrically around the eye.

Then around 160 and above, it gets weird, because the "colder is stronger" thing does not seem to always hold true.

I've noticed some annular storms can maintain category 5 for a while even while having significantly warmer cloud tops, so the temperature is not always a perfect indicator.
I definatly dont think Giovanna is up to cat 5 yet, but she is definatly on her way.
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting Patrap:
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)


Weak on that southwestern side. Needs to strengthen that if it wants to become a Category 5.
Quoting Skyepony:
Raw T score is getting up there..Adjusted is still a bit lower but kinda come to it's plateau's end judging by it's past..it's up or down from here. I'll go with up..it is coming into warmer water now.



Cyclone Giovanna 233000Z Feb 12

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 940.9mb/ 107.2kt

Raw T# 6.9
Adj T# 6.8
Final T# 5.7

Scene Type: EYE

----------------

probably going for cat 5
Quoting 1911maker:
"Rather than the actual temperature rising, we believe there is high possibility that the thermometer concerned is displaying erroneous data."............


The best thing to do is assume the thermometer is slightly under-estimating the temperature, and just pump in more water more quickly.

I don't know what to tell these guys about job security. Several American experts in nuclear and related fields said they thought the reactors should have been concreted in.

It's unclear to my mind what the Japanese goal is at this point. It would seem to be ridiculous to try to keep pumping water over this thing for the next 10 to 20 years, particularly given the rate of spills of contaminated water already happening on the site.
That's really ragged compared to the earlier frame.

Ate some dry air buffet, which is a good thing considering proximity.
Quoting RTSplayer:
That's really ragged compared to the earlier frame.

Ate some dry air buffet, which is a good thing considering proximity.



Does that look like an Eyewall Replacement Cycle to you, or is the system just too far out of range that reflectivity is getting screwy?
651 aspectre "The center of Giovanna...is (JTWC)predicted to hit just south of Toamasina(TMM)...
(Fortunately for Madagascar's largest port, that's the weak*side of the storm.)
...then proceed on a path that takes it even closer south of the capital city of Antananarivo(TNR)."
653 Xyrus2000 "...with this storm, I don't really think it makes all that much difference which side hits the city. ...Link... Currently 5.74 million are in the radius of hurricane force winds, and most of them aren't exactly living in anything that could be considered up to hurricane code."

There is that. But Madagascar needs all the breaks it can get facing this storm: it doesn't take much more than a major rainfall to cause a flooding&mudslides DISASTER there. Hurricane winds on top of major rain makes the situation far worse.
And if the main port gets knocked out, it's gonna be really difficult to get any humanitarian aid into the affected areas.
Quoting j2008:
I definatly dont think Giovanna is up to cat 5 yet, but she is definatly on her way.


Yeah, it needs to wrap the convection around the SW side.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



i just took the test

Result:


Your estimated Elo rating is

1080


I never played at clubs, just an occasional game here and there. Haven't played for years, yet still got 1450.

Take that test with a grain of salt.
OMG,Madagascar is where the wonderful and rare Madagascan Criollo cocoa trees grow!
I wish we had hurricane hunters in the southern hemisphere to give us a confirmed intensity on storms like Giovanna. Satellite estimates are good, but recon is much better. Also, I agree that Giovanna's eye looks a little ragged in the latest frame.
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

13 Feb 0000Z


Gee wiz ima hungry be bck soOoOoOoOoOn
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Does that look like an Eyewall Replacement Cycle to you, or is the system just too far out of range that reflectivity is getting screwy?


The latter, thought it would not surprise me if however there was some slight deformation of the S eyewall at this time. Either way, this is a significant cyclone.
The Impact begins as Seas begin to rise along the Madagascar Coast in the Warned area
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve/loop

click image for loop

Giovanna has that classic category 5 "shape". Now all it needs is the convection to match.

Does anyone have any sat. pics of Giovanna to post? :)
Yes, just as I thought. Convection is slowly starting to wrap around the southwestern side.

I don't think Giovanna is going to get any stronger than it already is. Look at all the dry air to its southwest that was just ingested into the system today and it continues to infiltrate it. It will have this to fight until landfall.

WaterVapor Loop
Link
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Does anyone have any sat. pics of Giovanna to post? :)


I think the GOES satellite is out of order.
Giovanna may soon start feeling some effects of interaction with Madagascar. Madagascar is kinda like Hispaniola- not that big, but mountainous, so it is often surrounded by dry air. We saw an affect like this with Irene, as it was slow to intensify because it periodically ingested dry air as it moved by Hispaniola. Just a thought though; Giovanna is a strong storm and could easily shrug this off.
Already in the low 40's in Tampa. Radiational cooling is gonna kick in tonite since not much cloud cover is in place currently but, it appears some clouds are moving in later so temps will drop quickly then ease some late tonite when the clouds move back in...

TXXS23 KNES 122338
TCSSIO

A. 12S (GIOVANNA)

B. 12/2330Z

C. 18.1S

D. 54.2E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...EYE EYE EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDING AN EYE NUMBER OF 4.5. WMG
EYE SURROUNDED BY B LACK GIVES AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +1.0 YIELDING A DT
OF 5.5. MET IS 6.0. PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NEWHARD




UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm



Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 FEB 2012 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 17:33:00 S Lon : 54:03:08 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 941.1mb/107.2kt
I worry about CIMSS's ADT sometimes...lol.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.0 4.5



The numbers will go back up in a minute when they get the center in the right position.
Giovanna is almost completely wrapped up. She's probably at 145-150mph right now IMO.
708. j2008
Quoting ILwthrfan:
I don't think Giovanna is going to get any stronger than it already is. Look at all the dry air to its southwest that was just ingested into the system today and it continues to infiltrate it. It will have this to fight until landfall.

WaterVapor Loop
Link

Doesnt look like a problem to me, srong storms often create thier own enviroment as Giovanna seems to be doing.
Quoting Ameister12:
Giovanna is almost completely wrapped up. She's probably at 145-150mph right now IMO.

Latest update is 145 mph...Only 15 mph to go. Will it make it? I think it's a slight possibility.


Quoting Xyrus2000:


I never played at clubs, just an occasional game here and there. Haven't played for years, yet still got 1450.

Take that test with a grain of salt.


I did a bit of research on it and there were some criticisms on it.

It seems it actually does give accurate results within about 100 to 200 points.

However, as the critics point out, you could just get "lucky" and guess the best move randomly and still get rated high.


So while the test can probably rule out low ranks, it can't deal with "lucky" moves, which is to say, an inferior player could "accidentally" make a very good move, even though they can't explain it.


All I did was apply a few basic rules, and think a few moves ahead on several possible moves that immediately leap out.

obviously:
Don't give up check.
Don't give up a queen if you have it.
Try check.
Capture queen if you can.
Trade "up" if you can.
think a few moves ahead.

Seems simple enough.

Evaluating positional or tempo advantages is a lot harder though, and the test is literally looking for the "best possible move," even if there's more than one move that leads to you winning, or even if you can't possibly win.
0100Z Image

We have a potentially Catastrophic Cyclone approaching a Populated area of 4-5 Million.


Its also some of the Highest and most dense Population as well.



i doubt she will reach cat 5 usually majors that go throw EWRC never reach five probably a weak 4 high 3 at landfall
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
i doubt she will reach cat 5 usually majors that go throw EWRC never reach five probably a weak 4 high 3 at landfall


She just came out of an EWRC today, I see no reason she couldn't reach a 5 before land interaction starts happening.
Cat size dosent relate the Impact of any individual Storm..well,as it was designed for wind loading on Structures only.


Surge potential and an areas relation to it and duration will matter greatly here.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
i doubt she will reach cat 5 usually majors that go throw EWRC never reach five probably a weak 4 high 3 at landfall

1.) It has already been through an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (just finished it earlier actually) and there are no indications that it will go through one anytime soon.

2.) It currently has winds of 145 mph and is crossing over increasingly warm waters.
Quoting yqt1001:


She just came out of an EWRC today.
then i doubt she will get to a 5 due to high ssts she wont weaken below cat 3 at landfall pretty dangerous situation
f*** you Giovanna!!!.I was hoping she'll pull a Irene on us...Dammit!!.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
then i doubt she will get to a 5 due to high ssts she wont weaken below cat 3 at landfall pretty dangerous situation

So...because it's passing over high SSTs, it won't make Category 5 intensity? That makes no sense...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Latest update is 145 mph...Only 15 mph to go. Will it make it? I think it's a slight possibility.



I think Giovanna has a good chance. It's already got that look to it, it's almost completely wrapped up and it has a good environment for more strengthening. The only problem is that it's getting very close the Madagascar.

4:27am Monday (EAT) - Time in Madagascar

plus 8-12 Hours before the eye crosses the Coast, so Half the Storm will be onshore come nightfall..
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 13 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (937 hPa) located at 18.2S 54.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
50 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 175 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 18.6S 51.4E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 19.0S 48.9E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 21.4S 43.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.1S 39.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=====================

Giovanna intensified over the last 6 hours with satellite presentation at 6.5 for a few hours. 6 hourly and 3 hourly averaged DT are both at 6.2 and the presentation is slightly deteriorated since 2330z. Current estimation of both mean sea level pressure and vortex max are in excellent agreement with the good AMSU (n19) intensity estimate of 2151z with a mean sea level pressure at 938 hPa and max wind at 113 kt (1 min mean) Latest radar imagery suggest that a new eyewall replacement cycle is occurring (to be confirmed with micorwave imagery)

System is now undergoing the steering influence of the mi-level ridge rebuilding in its south. This deep mid-level ridge would steer the system on a westwards to wast southwestwards track today and then southwestwards Tuesday as the the mid-level ridge shifts to the southeast of the cyclone.

Later this afternoon, Giovanna should undergo stronger easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. The impact of this increase with a shear that is in the same direction than the cyclone motion is difficult to appreciate for a system like Giovanna with a self-induced outflow ... However it is likely that some weakening could occur before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar tonight.

1 year day to day after the landfall of TC Bingiza over the Masaola area, the eastern coast of Madagascar will experience a new cyclone!! The expected landfall remains located between Fenerive northward to Mahanoro southward including the city of Tamatave. It is worth noting that the latest ECMWF outputs within the last 36 hours target the area between Tamatave and Vatomandry.

Weather conditions are expected to worsen rapidly today within the potential landfall area. All inhabitants are invited to closely follow the closing of this dangerous cyclone.

Giovanna should be back over waters of the Mozambique Channel Wednesday within a rather favorable atmospheric environment with a decreasing easterly shear as the system will move closer to an upper level ridge. However Thursday and Friday and according to ocean heat content map from the Colorado university, the system could encounter rather limited heat potential waters south of 22S and west of 40E. Moreover the system is expected to move little by that time (new barometric col situation). According to latest numerical guidance that suggest again some strengthening, the forecast intensity is more aggressive than previously.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..


Bingiza mentioned in the latest advisory, not as strong a Giovanna though.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I worry about CIMSS's ADT sometimes...lol.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.0 4.5



The numbers will go back up in a minute when they get the center in the right position.


i think its funny how when the eye is clear on a system, they give it like a 5.5 or 6.0....then high clouds come over most of it, and the numbers drop to 4.0 lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
f*** you Giovanna!!!.I was hoping she'll pull a Irene on us...Dammit!!.


easy, easy....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

1.) It has already been through an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (just finished it earlier actually) and there are no indications that it will go through one anytime soon.

2.) It currently has winds of 145 mph and is crossing over increasingly warm waters.



Wait and see right now. Southwest eyewall is looking really goofy at the moment on all graphics.

I would not want to be in that country right now.

It looks like forward speed isn't really going to increase until about a day after landfall.

At least it's moving 12mph already, but you never know.

We've seen this year a mere TS kill a lot of people, and it has happened before as well, so nobody should take this storm lightly, even if it was to weaken a bit.

I don't what they have for public shelters in the region, but those houses are definitely not safe for category 3 or 4 sustained winds.

Heck, if it was to landfall as category 2, they'd probably be safer standing OUTSIDE in the rain, instead of in their houses, as long as there aren't any trees around. At least then nothing can collapse on you.

Given their buildings' conditions, at cat 3 or 4, I don't know what they should do, besides hide under the bed and pray.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

So...because it's passing over high SSTs, it won't make Category 5 intensity? That makes no sense...

Put a period after the 5. Makes sense then.
Jesse
Quoting SPLbeater:


i think its funny how when the eye is clear on a system, they give it like a 5.5 or 6.0....then high clouds come over most of it, and the numbers drop to 4.0 lol

easy, easy....


NOAA have 1 frame per minute imagery to track cloud motion more precisely.

What is posted publicly is one frame every 15 or 30 minutes.
Thinking about what washingtonian115 said about "Pulling an Irene."

Irene caused around 10 billion dollars in damage as a category 1/tropical storm. Imagine if it ended up hitting the east coast as a major hurricane like originally predicted. Yikes!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
That's not good...
Quoting Patrap:
We have a potentially Catastrophic Cyclone approaching a Populated area of 4-5 Million.


Its also some of the Highest and most dense Population as well.





Pat,do you know where is the cam that you posted earlier located?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Pat,do you know where is the cam that you posted earlier located?



Im still trying to determine,one HTML say Africa, the other Madagascar so Im trying to get the info straight.

Sunrise is in another Hour on Madagascar, so if we get first light there, its a good cam for impact.


************************************************* ***
/master_frame_fix.html?http://www.webcamplaza.net /continents/beachcams.


Another port,,I think were there,or Im losing personal RAM maybe.

: )

www.nosybe.com
FInally, a new SSMI microwave image..
Well maybe not NEW, but within 6 hours lol
0130 Z Image

744. xcool


CFS shear forecast


not good alll...
It's still about 5 degrees out.

Landfall should still be 28 hours from latest frame.

That's plenty time for a lot of weakening to happen.
Quoting RTSplayer:
It's still about 5 degrees out.

Landfall should still be 28 hours from latest frame.

That's plenty time for a lot of weakening to happen.

Or plenty of strengthening, although that window would probably be lowered to 24 hours or so, because once the system's main area of convection starts moving ashore, it usually affects the storm.
Quoting RTSplayer:
It's still about 5 degrees out.

Landfall should still be 28 hours from latest frame.

That's plenty time for a lot of weakening to happen.


Or strengthening, but in the end, does an extra 20kts in wind matter? In a nation like Madagascar, you are lucky to survive a TS let alone a category 5 cyclone. Actually, a TS is slightly more dangerous because of the heavy rain possibilities.
Quoting RTSplayer:
It's still about 5 degrees out.

Landfall should still be 28 hours from latest frame.

That's plenty time for a lot of weakening to happen.

The area it is going to hit is rather densely populated, and also mountainous. Intensity doesn't really matter in this scenario..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #17
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 PM FST February 13 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (991 hPa) located at 22.6S 177.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Overall organization remains same for the past 24 hours. Convection has not changed much in the last 3 hours. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine lies to the south of an upper ridge. Good outflow to the south and
West but restricted elsewhere. CIMSS analysis indicate system is steered northeastward by a southwesterly deep layer mean flow into an area of low shear. Sea surface temperatures around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on approximately 0.4 wrap, yielding DT=2.5, PT=2.5 and met=2.5. Final Dvorak based on Dvorak constraints for initial weakening, CI=3.0,

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a initial northeast movement and recurving it southwestward with gradual weakening in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 21.9S 176.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.3S 176.3W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.1S 176.9W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #17
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 AM FST February 13 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (991 hPa) located at 22.6S 177.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Overall organization remains same for the past 24 hours. Convection has not changed much in the last 3 hours. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine lies to the south of an upper ridge. Good outflow to the south and
West but restricted elsewhere. CIMSS analysis indicate system is steered northeastward by a southwesterly deep layer mean flow into an area of low shear. Sea surface temperatures around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on approximately 0.4 wrap, yielding DT=2.5, PT=2.5 and met=2.5. Final Dvorak based on Dvorak constraints for initial weakening, CI=3.0,

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a initial northeast movement and recurving it southwestward with gradual weakening in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 21.9S 176.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.3S 176.3W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.1S 176.9W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..


Jasmine has managed to keep it for a long time together....
Quoting Ameister12:


Let's go for 5!
JTWC says 125 knots...0.o
Quoting yqt1001:


Or strengthening, but in the end, does an extra 20kts in wind matter? In a nation like Madagascar, you are lucky to survive a TS let alone a category 5 cyclone. Actually, a TS is slightly more dangerous because of the heavy rain possibilities.


Sorry, I couldn't possibly think of a scenario where I'd prefer to get hit by a cat 5 instead of a TS.

Yes, 20 kts in wind matters, even if for no other reason than the fact the storm holds intensity much longer.

At the present intensity, additional 20kts would make a 36% increase in kinetic energy delivered per second.

That would be 160 sustained, which would be Andrew, which is clearly destroy most U.S. homes. So that's a big difference indeed.
Quoting SPLbeater:
JTWC says 125 knots...0.o


Is that 1 minute or 10 minute? I forget.

gotta be 1 minute.

No way this is a 10 minute sustained at 125kts. That'd be um...
Quoting SPLbeater:
JTWC says 125 knots...0.o


Quoting RTSplayer:


Is that 1 minute or 10 minute? I forget.

gotta be 1 minute.

No way this is a 10 minute sustained at 125kts. That'd be um...


they updated forward motions to 18mph, which is a good thing.

50% faster movement translates to 2/3rds the average max rainfall potential.


Bad thing is that, if it's sunrise right now, then that puts it landfalling sometime near midnight.
I don't like the 10 minute sustained RTS. 1 minute is enough to blow a trailer full o people over...lol.
Dry air is really starting to affect Giovanna's southern side. Dare I say the system has peaked?
Pat,sunrise is now there.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dry air is really starting to affect Giovanna's southern side. Dare I say the system has peaked?


Probably.

I thought so 3 or 4 frames ago, but that's just me.

I could be wrong, but day time heating should warm up the cloud tops quite a bit and knock it down a peg.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dry air is really starting to affect Giovanna's southern side. Dare I say the system has peaked?


KeyWestSun had that dry air intrusion possible on my blog earlier....

MIMIC-TPW show a slow of dry air comign on from west. Go have a look:)
0200Z Image

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting RTSplayer:


Probably.

I thought so 3 or 4 frames ago, but that's just me.

I could be wrong, but day time heating should warm up the cloud tops quite a bit and knock it down a peg.


Wrong way around. The heat from the sun makes the pressures lower, allowing for deeper convection. It's called the diurnal pressure cycle.
Improving Dvorak





Quoting yqt1001:


Wrong way around. The heat from the sun makes the pressures lower, allowing for deeper convection. It's called the diurnal pressure cycle.


wow....im learning!!!!!this is rare lol
Quoting WxGeekVA:






LOLOLOL
Sleet and snow fell in the TX hill country today, no accumulation

Quoting SPLbeater:


wow....im learning!!!!!this is rare lol
You learning is rare..?
Quoting Patrap:
Improving Dvorak Loop


..click image for loop

</a>


Actually, it seems weaker to me too after watching that loop....
Quoting hydrus:
You learning is rare..?

That is rather worrying.
772. j2008
Quoting Patrap:
Improving Dvorak





I agree looks much more complete, ring of cold convection is completely filled in around the eye, looks prime for more intensification. Also appears to be starting to band around the southern side which has been weak all day.
755. RTSplayer 2:37 AM GMT on February 13, 2012


Is that 1 minute or 10 minute? I forget.

gotta be 1 minute.

No way this is a 10 minute sustained at 125kts. That'd be um...


Pearl Harbor, Hawaii always uses the 1 minute wind average.
Quoting hydrus:
You learning is rare..?


here it is xD
Hi yall, im a 15 year old boy who has followed weather for as long as i can remember but only remember events back to '08(like the 3/15/08 outbreak).
I have lurked here for 2 or 3 years
Quoting SPLbeater:


wow....im learning!!!!!this is rare lol


Definite weakening is occurring at this time. The eye is becoming cloud-filled.



Still hoping for a little snow in GA before the rain comes!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Hi yall, im a 15 year old boy who has followed weather for as long as i can remember but only remember events back to '08(like the 3/15/08 outbreak).
I have lurked here for 2 or 3 years


Welcome Georgia! Nice to meet you. I'm a relative new comer to weather watching. Though I do remember an event or two going a little farther back than '08. Lol. Found WU in '08. Been hooked ever since. Learned a lot here. Pipe in any time. :)
0300Z Image
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Definite weakening is occurring at this time. The eye is becoming cloud-filled.

Yes. The S.W. quadrant has been having trouble getting the convection wrapped up there. Might be some shear issues. If it does not achieve the uniform C.D.O., it will not strengthen...Could weaken a bit..They do mention it being annular tho...remarks:
130300z position near 18.3s 53.4e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 12s (giovanna), located approximately 400 nm
east of Antananarivo, Madagascar, had tracked west-southwestward at
14 knots over the past six hours. Animated infrared satellite
imagery shows the system has reintensified coincident with the
emergence of a highly symmetrical 40-nm diameter eye. A 130000z SSMI
microwave image shows the eye is enveloped by a continuous ring of
ultra-deep convection, which is in turn surrounded by a concentric
ring of shallow reflectivities, characteristic of intense annular
cyclones. The initial position was placed with high confidence over
the eye feature and the initial intensity was based on Dvorak

estimates from pgtw and fmee. Upper level analysis indicates the
cyclone has formed its own mesoscale anticyclone that is providing
excellent radial outflow. Tc 12s is expected to continue tracking
along the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge extension to the
south. It will make landfall over the central eastern coast of
Madagascar shortly before tau 24, then exit into the Mozambique
Channel by tau 48 before making a secondary and final landfall into
southern Mozambique. The available numerical guidance is in close
agreement with the exception of GFDN that brings the vortex poleward
after tau 72. This track forecast is in line with consensus. Maximum
significant wave height at 130000z is 28 feet. Next warnings at
131500z and 140300z.//
First vis of the day.

This is the tell all tale...from hydrus post


Upper level analysis indicates the
cyclone has formed its own mesoscale anticyclone that is providing
excellent radial outflow.


Were going to see a severe Cyclone Impact a Major Coastal region with limited response capability at best.

ReliefWEB is aware and monitoring the Islands request and updates.
Excellent Outflow, excellent inflow at the surface.

Warm sustaining SST's and Low Shear.







Quoting Patrap:
This is the tell all tale...from hydrus post


Upper level analysis indicates the
cyclone has formed its own mesoscale anticyclone that is providing
excellent radial outflow.


Were going to see a severe Cyclone Impact a Major Coastal region will limited response capability at best.

ReliefWEB is aware and monitoring the Islands request and updates.
bummer...My prayers for them..Unfortunately, I know how some of them feel right now...and a lot of that feeling lies in the pit of the stomach.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Still hoping for a little snow in GA before the rain comes!


thats crazy....that NWS must be wanting snow so bad they are dreaming and putting their dreams on their site...its not even going to snow/sleet/frz rain in atlanta, let alone a mix just north of macon. it will be all rain from north atlanta south, helen, ga up to the nc border will get some snow, but thats it!
Looking carefully at the Balance of the systems outflow and note the Hot Towers forming well away from the Inner eyewall.

Thats a bad sign.
More light, so a clearer image of Giovanna. The only thing that is missing is the closed south east side of the eyewall, otherwise it would be the perfect storm.

Quoting hydrus:
Yes. The S.W. quadrant has been having trouble getting the convection wrapped up there. Might be some shear issues. If it does not achieve the uniform C.D.O., it will not strengthen...Could weaken a bit..They do mention it being annular tho...remarks:
130300z position near 18.3s 53.4e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 12s (giovanna), located approximately 400 nm
east of Antananarivo, Madagascar, had tracked west-southwestward at
14 knots over the past six hours. Animated infrared satellite
imagery shows the system has reintensified coincident with the
emergence of a highly symmetrical 40-nm diameter eye. A 130000z SSMI
microwave image shows the eye is enveloped by a continuous ring of
ultra-deep convection, which is in turn surrounded by a concentric
ring of shallow reflectivities, characteristic of intense annular
cyclones. The initial position was placed with high confidence over
the eye feature and the initial intensity was based on Dvorak

estimates from pgtw and fmee. Upper level analysis indicates the
cyclone has formed its own mesoscale anticyclone that is providing
excellent radial outflow. Tc 12s is expected to continue tracking
along the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge extension to the
south. It will make landfall over the central eastern coast of
Madagascar shortly before tau 24, then exit into the Mozambique
Channel by tau 48 before making a secondary and final landfall into
southern Mozambique. The available numerical guidance is in close
agreement with the exception of GFDN that brings the vortex poleward
after tau 72. This track forecast is in line with consensus. Maximum
significant wave height at 130000z is 28 feet. Next warnings at
131500z and 140300z.//


Even if it doesn't weaken, it will still be at least a cat 3 on landfall, if not a cat 4. The U.S. can't even withstand a cat 4 what would make anyone think that Madagascar can?



After seeing the first visible images Madagascar residents react to the terrible news...
She,s moving at 18 mph..Thats how fast Charley wuz movin when we got whacked..So whoever is on the south side of this monster could see gusts near 200 mph.
Quoting yqt1001:


Wrong way around. The heat from the sun makes the pressures lower, allowing for deeper convection. It's called the diurnal pressure cycle.


Quoting yqt1001:


Wrong way around. The heat from the sun makes the pressures lower, allowing for deeper convection. It's called the diurnal pressure cycle.



nope.

http://www.cfnews13.com/article/weather/2010/sept ember/143029/Do-hurricanes-get-stronger-during-the -day-versus-night


Water temperature stays about the same day or night.

Air temperature drops significantly for night.

This maximizes the difference in heat between the water and air over night, and therefore makes a more efficient heat engine, at least within certain reasonable limits, based on the laws of thermodynamics.


i.e.

efficiency = 1 - Tc/Th

In Kelvin of course.

Which means that since Th isn't changing much, (neglecting upwelling,) then the colder the cloud tops the smaller Tc, therefore stronger the theoretical maximum winds are, at least in general. There are exceptions.


http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/holem/holem.html

Two examples I can cite on that are Celia and Katrina.


---

I don't expect Giovanna to become a category 5 storm, because it's actually jogged south a bit during the day (their night,) and the water is cooler. Additionally, by the time it gets through this cycle, it will be too close to land to reintensify significantly.
Quoting RTSplayer:





nope.

http://www.cfnews13.com/article/weather/2010/sept ember/143029/Do-hurricanes-get-stronger-during-the -day-versus-night


Water temperature stays about the same day or night.

Air temperature drops significantly for night.

This maximizes the difference in heat between the water and air over night, and therefore makes a more efficient heat engine, at least within certain reasonable limits, based on the laws of thermodynamics.


i.e.

efficiency = 1 - Tc/Th

In Kelvin of course.

Which means that since Th isn't changing much, (neglecting upwelling,) then the colder the cloud tops the smaller Tc, therefore stronger the theoretical maximum winds are, at least in general. There are exceptions.


http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/holem/holem.html

Two examples I can cite on that are Celia and Katrina.


---

I don't expect Giovanna to become a category 5 storm, because it's actually jogged south a bit during the day (their night,) and the water is cooler. Additionally, by the time it gets through this cycle, it will be too close to land to reintensify significantly.


At this point, the difference between it's current strength and category 5 strength is nominal. No matter what now, it is going to be a massive disaster for a large portion of Madagascar.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Probably.

I thought so 3 or 4 frames ago, but that's just me.

I could be wrong, but day time heating should warm up the cloud tops quite a bit and knock it down a peg.


Its been fighting dry air for most of the day. On the water vapor you could see a slug of dry ar out of the southwest just eat away the southern CDO earlier.
well goodnight all
800. j2008
Surpriseing fact for this year so far, 2 out of 3 Severe TC have been annular (Jasmine and Giovanna) while Funso was the only one that wasnt. I'm going to head out tonight, keep an eye on Giovanna, I'll cheak back in in the morning.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


At this point, the difference between it's current strength and category 5 strength is nominal. No matter what now, it is going to be a massive disaster for a large portion of Madagascar.
This makes me sad. These people have been hit a lot in the past 5 years or so. The tsunami was pretty bad there too.....


Sixth cyclone hits Madagascar; impact "like tsunami"
Successive cyclones bring Madagascar to its knees
IRIN
April 3, 2007


JOHANNESBURG, 3 April 2007 (IRIN) - As the sixth mayor cyclone to hit Madagascar this season tears across the northeast of the impoverished Indian ocean island, a relentless succession of natural disasters has left nearly half a million people in desperate need of humanitarian assistance.


HOW TO HELP MADAGASCAR

care.org
medair.org
unicef.org

Please specify that donations should go to Madagascar relief!
Tropical cyclone Jaya made landfall on Madagascar's northeastern coast on Tuesday on a projected trajectory that will see it rage through areas already devastated by cyclone Indlala just over two weeks ago.

"This is the worst cyclone season in the recorded history of the country," Dusan Zupka, the Senior Emergency Coordination Officer assigned to Madagascar by the United Nations (UN) Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Geneva, told IRIN.

According to the latest UN situation report, almost 130,000 people were "directly affected by cyclone Indlala" and "at least 88 people were killed and 30 disappeared, with about 30,000 left homeless or deprived of all their belongings."


Cyclone aftermath in northern Madagascar. © Episcopal relief and development
Natural disasters have been tormenting the island since the end of last year; Indlala followed in the wake of five destructive cyclones and unprecedented flooding. "Since December 2006, approximately 450,000 people have become the victims of natural disasters all over Madagascar," said a UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) statement.

"If we cannot speak of a tsunami here in Madagascar, we can at least say that the affects of the natural disasters are somewhat similar to that in the aftermath of the [2004 Asian] tsunami," said Bruno Maes, the UNICEF Representative in Madagascar.

"Considering the low level of human development [in Madagascar], the consequences are huge," Zupka said. Madagascar already faces serious challenges: More than 85 percent of its 19.1 million people live on less than US$2 a day, according to the 2006 United Nations Human Development report, and food insecurity and malnutrition are chronic, particularly in the drought-prone south.

"Due to the flooding, tens of thousands of hectares of rice, the basic food source for the Malagasy, have also been destroyed," the UNICEF statement said. "With the increased food insecurity and shortage, there is the risk of increased malnutrition."

Access to affected areas is a major obstacle to the delivery of humanitarian assistance, and although assessments are underway, immediate needs are critical.

Communication infrastructure, roads, schools and health centres have been severely damaged; provision of food, potable water, shelter, medicines, sanitation facilities, dealing with waterborne diseases and finding alternative means of transportation - like helicopters - until roads are fixed, are essential.

Officials have warned that in-country supplies are drained. "We are overstretched in terms of human capacity and financial resources," Zupka said, adding that international donors had been generous and that "all UN agencies have boosted capacity [in Madagascar].




Zupka expressed concern over the lack of international media attention the emergency in Madagascar had received, considering the extent of the multiple disasters and the vulnerability of the island and its people. "It is striking that so little attention is being paid to a crisis that affects so many that are already vulnerable because of poverty," he commented.

With the cyclone season continuing until the end of April or early May, expectations are that Jaya will not be the last disaster to strike the island.



Hurricanes hurt conservation efforts in Madagascar
Madagascar needs relief help after deadly cyclones




794:

Heard about that a few years ago, but it was in early development.


they are trying to advance the 3-d printer technology to the point that the printer can print "most" of the components to a copy of itself. i.e. self-replication, or very nearly so.
Quoting SPLbeater:
well goodnight all
Good night SPL..:)

Quoting RTSplayer:
they updated forward motions to 18mph, which is a good thing.

50% faster movement translates to 2/3rds the average max rainfall potential.


Bad thing is that, if it's sunrise right now, then that puts it landfalling sometime near midnight.
Faster forward motion also maximizes the inland wind gust potential relative to storm movement.
Quoting yqt1001:
More light, so a clearer image of Giovanna. The only thing that is missing is the closed south east side of the eyewall, otherwise it would be the perfect storm.



I think you are right there. It seems there is dry air coming in from the south east. I hate the upside down storms. You have to reverse your thinking. It is the same when storms in the Northern Hemisphere begin entrain dry air from the North west.

Looking bad for Madagascar. Much of the island has been severely deforested by the inhabitants for fuel-wood. Mudslides will be as bad there as in Haiti. Hopefully some significant weakening occurs, but given the annular nature of Giovanna, this is unlikely.

Quoting MidnightLightning:
Looking bad for Madagascar. Much of the island has been severely deforested by the inhabitants for fuel-wood. Mudslides will be as bad there as in Haiti. Hopefully some significant weakening occurs, but given the annular nature of Giovanna, this is unlikely.
It doesn't take a major hurricane to produce flash flooding.
I am afraid Mozambique will have tremendous flooding with this system. I thought Funso might have cooled the water a bit, but not enough to weaken the storm.

Quoting hydrus:
I am afraid Mozambique will have tremendous flooding with this system. I thought Funso might have cooled the water a bit, but not enough to weaken the storm.
Preexisting saturated grounds from Funso's rains could indeed exacerbate the flood potential there.

Even if the water was upwelled, it has had time to warm a couple degrees. I'd wager the subsurface has, too.
Quoting KoritheMan:

It doesn't take a major hurricane to produce flash flooding.
You know how these annular storms are. This thing will remain intense almost halfway across, if not even further...Scary stuff.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Preexisting saturated grounds from Funso's rains could indeed exacerbate the flood potential there.

Even if the water was upwelled, it has had time to warm a couple degrees. I'd wager the subsurface has, too.
We live here by natures consent. And this storm is proof of that.


hopefully
the dry air takes this evil vision from our sight

Quoting hydrus:
We live here by natures consent. And this storm is proof of that.
Indeed. Nature doesn't give a you know what about our plights.
Quoting KoritheMan:

It doesn't take a major hurricane to produce flash flooding.
Lol...I was flooded by an invest.
The storm is well insulated from the dry air to the Sw. It wont affect this impact, as its expected to be a Tropical Storm when Exiting the Island and Impacting points west as one as well.

On a related note, I've always wanted to donate to Portlight post-disaster relief, but I never really had the money. But now that I'm working, I'm going to make a contribution following any upcoming US disaster.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Indeed. Nature doesn't give a you know what about our plights.
And Madagascar has had its share quite recently...And in the same area...Wiki...Cyclone Ivan was a powerful tropical cyclone that struck Madagascar in February 2008. Forming from a persistent area of convection on February 7, Ivan initially tracked southeastward, before looping to the west-southwest. Encountering favourable conditions, it strengthened to attain peak winds on February 17 before striking northeastern Madagascar. It degenerated into a remnant low pressure area as it crossed the island, and briefly re-organized into a weak tropical depression before dissipating on February 22.

Ivan caused heavy damage in Madagascar, leaving severe flooding and wind damage. In Sainte Marie Island, the worst hit area, 90% of the infastructure was destroyed, and 70% of the structures were destroyed. On mainland Madegascar, over 400,000 acres (1,600 km2) of cultivated crops were destroyed, leaving hundreds of families without food. In addition, severe flooding and high winds in Toamasina left the entire city without electricity or drinkable water. In all, over 330,000 people were left homeless, and the storm caused 93 deaths.Cyclone Ivan moved ashore on Madagascar near the city of Toamasina on February 17, producing winds of 125 mph (200 km/h).[19] According to local news agencies, Sainte Marie island off the coast of Madagascar was the highest affected area, with 9 people killed and 90 % of the island's infrastructure destroyed, including a hotel which collapsed.[20] On the island, all flights were suspended or canceled during the storm, and most areas were left without electric power.[20] Also, 75 percent of the structures on the island were completely destroyed.[21]

On mainland Madagascar, 100,000 acres (400 km2) of rice crops were destroyed, and 300,000 acres (1,200 km2) of other cultivated crops were destroyed.[22] Because of this, many families had little or no food to eat.[22] In Analanjirofo, the worst hit region on the mainland Madagascar, 80,000 people were left homeless, and most of the schools, houses and other structures were lost as a result of the flooding and high wind.[22] Another major aspect of the damage there was the Antaratasy bridge, a connector between the region of Atsinanana and cities to the north, which was completely destroyed, isolating several people from their families.[23] Its collapse, in addition to the extensive damage to communications, made it difficult or impossible to contact people who may have been affected by Ivan.[23]

In the city of Toamasina, all water and electricity were cut off as a result of the storm.[23] High winds downed trees and power lines, and rising flood waters were the focus of concern.[23] In the city and surrounding areas, 31 cases of cholera were reported along the Zambeze river valley as a result of the storm.[24]

In the region of Alaotra Mangoro Region, almost 23,000 people were in need of assistance, and flooding caused extensive damage.[25] In the Analamanga Region, 18,000 people were reported to be left without shelter, and in the Atsinanana Region, up to 13,000 people were left homeless.[25] In total, 190,000 people were homeless as a result of the cyclone[26] and a total of 93 fatalities occurred.[27]
Quoting KoritheMan:
On a related note, I've always wanted to donate to Portlight post-disaster relief, but I never really had the money. But now that I'm working, I'm going to make a contribution following any upcoming US disaster.
You are " The Man" :)
Quoting KoritheMan:

It doesn't take a major hurricane to produce flash flooding.


Obviously, but with Cat 3 sustained winds, damage to all vegetation will be severe, thus exacerbating mudslides by removing more vegetation that could potentially anchor the soil. Madagascar had another major cyclone several years back (Ivan). A buddy of mine was doing his PhD work over there. Damage was catastrophic. Madagascar is probably one of the two worst places in the world for mudslides (the other is probably Haiti). Both are mountainous, and both have been stripped of vegetation by inhabitants looking for fuel-wood.
Thanks for that kori.

We always need support for helping others.

Its how its done, people helping people.

Portlight awarded Reeve Foundation Quality of Life Grant









Tropicsweatherpr "Pat,do you know where is the cam that you posted earlier located?"
738 Patrap "Im still trying to determine,one HTML say Africa, the other Madagascar so Im trying to get the info straight"

Hotel Adrialana Beach located on Nosy Be Island (NOS) off the northwest coast of Madagascar that Xyrus2000 linked to earlier.

The red line between the two unlabeled dots connects Giovanna's latest two center positions as reported by the JointTyphoonWarningCenter.
TMM is Toamasina. And TNR is Antananarivo.
The distance between TMM and TNR is ~134miles(216kilometres).

Quoting hydrus:
And Madagascar has had its share quite recently...And in the same area...Wiki...Cyclone Ivan was a powerful tropical cyclone that struck Madagascar in February 2008. Forming from a persistent area of convection on February 7, Ivan initially tracked southeastward, before looping to the west-southwest. Encountering favourable conditions, it strengthened to attain peak winds on February 17 before striking northeastern Madagascar. It degenerated into a remnant low pressure area as it crossed the island, and briefly re-organized into a weak tropical depression before dissipating on February 22.

Ivan caused heavy damage in Madagascar, leaving severe flooding and wind damage. In Sainte Marie Island, the worst hit area, 90% of the infastructure was destroyed, and 70% of the structures were destroyed. On mainland Madegascar, over 400,000 acres (1,600 km2) of cultivated crops were destroyed, leaving hundreds of families without food. In addition, severe flooding and high winds in Toamasina left the entire city without electricity or drinkable water. In all, over 330,000 people were left homeless, and the storm caused 93 deaths.Cyclone Ivan moved ashore on Madagascar near the city of Toamasina on February 17, producing winds of 125 mph (200 km/h).[19] According to local news agencies, Sainte Marie island off the coast of Madagascar was the highest affected area, with 9 people killed and 90 % of the island's infrastructure destroyed, including a hotel which collapsed.[20] On the island, all flights were suspended or canceled during the storm, and most areas were left without electric power.[20] Also, 75 percent of the structures on the island were completely destroyed.[21]

On mainland Madagascar, 100,000 acres (400 km2) of rice crops were destroyed, and 300,000 acres (1,200 km2) of other cultivated crops were destroyed.[22] Because of this, many families had little or no food to eat.[22] In Analanjirofo, the worst hit region on the mainland Madagascar, 80,000 people were left homeless, and most of the schools, houses and other structures were lost as a result of the flooding and high wind.[22] Another major aspect of the damage there was the Antaratasy bridge, a connector between the region of Atsinanana and cities to the north, which was completely destroyed, isolating several people from their families.[23] Its collapse, in addition to the extensive damage to communications, made it difficult or impossible to contact people who may have been affected by Ivan.[23]

In the city of Toamasina, all water and electricity were cut off as a result of the storm.[23] High winds downed trees and power lines, and rising flood waters were the focus of concern.[23] In the city and surrounding areas, 31 cases of cholera were reported along the Zambeze river valley as a result of the storm.[24]

In the region of Alaotra Mangoro Region, almost 23,000 people were in need of assistance, and flooding caused extensive damage.[25] In the Analamanga Region, 18,000 people were reported to be left without shelter, and in the Atsinanana Region, up to 13,000 people were left homeless.[25] In total, 190,000 people were homeless as a result of the cyclone[26] and a total of 93 fatalities occurred.[27]
Technically, these "disasters" wouldn't be such at all were it not for human invasion. Hurricanes are nature's way of moving heat from the tropics to the polar regions. Damage and deaths notwithstanding, we need hurricanes; the very physics of our universe demands it. If humans never existed, neither would these events, insofar as there would be no negative consequence to them.

Of course, that's asking too much as we need to inhabit to survive. Nature, however, doesn't care, and will continue to give us the middle finger the rest of our existence.
I dont get the creeping willies to often anymore,but this Dawn Image brings to mind similar days in my past, and I'm sure others here as well.

One can feel the imminence in this shot.



/master_frame_fix.html?http://www.webcamplaza.net /continents/beachcams.

If anybody is having trouble reading satellite maps due to reversed high and low rotations in the S. hemisphere, you can just try this simple trick. Maybe you thought of it first.


Just copy the picture and "flip" it vertically in a paint program.

the land masses will look goofy, but you'll be able to read troughs and ridges easily, since it will look just like the N. Hemisphere.


Quoting MidnightLightning:


Obviously, but with Cat 3 sustained winds, damage to all vegetation will be severe, thus exacerbating mudslides by removing more vegetation that could potentially anchor the soil. Madagascar had another major cyclone several years back (Ivan). A buddy of mine was doing his PhD work over there. Damage was catastrophic. Madagascar is probably one of the two worst places in the world for mudslides (the other is probably Haiti). Both are mountainous, and both have been stripped of vegetation by inhabitants looking for fuel-wood.
Fair enough.

Quoting Patrap:
I dont get the creeping willies to often anymore,but this Dawn Image brings to mind similar days in my past, and I'm sure others here as well.

One can feel the imminence in this shot.



/master_frame_fix.html?http://www.webcamplaza.net /continents/beachcams.

Not quite a rainband, but an outflow boundary for sure.
Something very big will happen in America within the
next 180 days.

It will be more devastating than the credit crisis of 2008.
For most people, it will hit them like a brick wall.

It will touch Americans harder and deeper than anything
else we've seen since the Great Depression.

One can refresh this image during the Storm till power goes down.

Webcam



Quoting yqt1001:


Wrong way around. The heat from the sun makes the pressures lower, allowing for deeper convection. It's called the diurnal pressure cycle.
Well you and SPLbeater are both correct. Over the ocean, there are two pressure maximums and minimums, making it a semidiurnal (two cycles in one day) process.

Solar heating during the day causes the air column (particularly above the planetary boundary layer (PBL) where the low level atmosphere experiences little warming due to the stable ocean temperature) to expand, causing surface pressures to drop. During the night time, the air above the PBL cools, while the low level atmosphere below the PBL remains warm due to the ocean's fairly constant temperature (over the course of a day...obviously it can vary a bit throughout the year). As the low level atmosphere becomes increasingly warm relative to the mid level atmosphere (mid level cools due to the absence of solar heating, low level stays warm from conduction with the Ocean), it becomes lighter and begins to rise, again lowering pressures.

However, keep in mind, the convective cycle is diurnal. It has a peak around sunrise and a low around sunset. Therefore, tropical systems experience the most strengthening/intensifying during the nighttime as the convective cycle heads toward it's maximum around sunrise.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Technically, these "disasters" wouldn't be such at all were it not for human invasion. Hurricanes are nature's way of moving heat from the tropics to the polar regions. Damage and deaths notwithstanding, we need hurricanes; the very physics of our universe demands it. If humans never existed, neither would these events, insofar as there would be no negative consequence to them.

Of course, that's asking too much as we need to inhabit to survive. Nature, however, doesn't care, and will continue to give us the middle finger the rest of our existence.
Indeed. I heard one met describe them as" necessary evils".
Quoting RitaEvac:
Something very big will happen in America within the
next 180 days.

It will be more devastating than the credit crisis of 2008.
For most people, it will hit them like a brick wall.

It will touch Americans harder and deeper than anything
else we've seen since the Great Depression.



Awaken tonight
Quoting Patrap:


Awaken tonight


I'm seriously thinking bout stocking up and buying MREs while supplies last

crisis3.com
Quoting RitaEvac:


I'm seriously thinking bout stocking up and buying MREs while supplies last


Being prepared for any Weather event, Apocalypse, Trial verdict, Hockey Loss, College Title Win, one needs a plan and supplies.

Calamity never favors the unprepared.
Quoting Patrap:


Being prepared for any Weather event, Apocalypse, Trial verdict, Hockey Loss, College Title Win, one needs a plan and supplies.

Calamity never favors the unprepared.


What have you got so far?
Mystery Disease In Central America Kills Thousands

CHICHIGALPA, Nicaragua -- Jesus Ignacio Flores started working when he was 16, laboring long hours on construction sites and in the fields of his country's biggest sugar plantation.

Three years ago his kidneys started to fail and flooded his body with toxins. He became too weak to work, wracked by cramps, headaches and vomiting.

On Jan. 19 he died on the porch of his house. He was 51. His withered body was dressed by his weeping wife, embraced a final time, then carried in the bed of a pickup truck to a grave on the edge of Chichigalpa, a town in Nicaragua's sugar-growing heartland, where studies have found more than one in four men showing symptoms of chronic kidney disease.

A mysterious epidemic is devastating the Pacific coast of Central America, killing more than 24,000 people in El Salvador and Nicaragua since 2000 and striking thousands of others with chronic kidney disease at rates unseen virtually anywhere else. Scientists say they have received reports of the phenomenon as far north as southern Mexico and as far south as Panama.

Last year it reached the point where El Salvador's health minister, Dr. Maria Isabel Rodriguez, appealed for international help, saying the epidemic was undermining health systems.

Wilfredo Ordonez, who has harvested corn, sesame and rice for more than 30 years in the Bajo Lempa region of El Salvador, was hit by the chronic disease when he was 38. Ten years later, he depends on dialysis treatments he administers to himself four times a day.

"This is a disease that comes with no warning, and when they find it, it's too late," Ordonez said as he lay on a hammock on his porch.

Many of the victims were manual laborers or worked in sugar cane fields that cover much of the coastal lowlands. Patients, local doctors and activists say they believe the culprit lurks among the agricultural chemicals workers have used for years with virtually none of the protections required in more developed countries. But a growing body of evidence supports a more complicated and counterintuitive hypothesis.

Quoting RitaEvac:


What have you got so far?


A good plan and a Inland rally point.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Something very big will happen in America within the
next 180 days.

It will be more devastating than the credit crisis of 2008.
For most people, it will hit them like a brick wall.

It will touch Americans harder and deeper than anything
else we've seen since the Great Depression.



Do you ever post anything positive? Tell us how good Rick Perry is as Govenor!
Good evening.
First and maybe the only touch of winter for many in Oklahoma tonight.

(wu regional radar removed)
Report: Mysterious, black radioactive substance found 25km from Fukushima — Latest measurement over 95 µSv/h — Strong alpha emitter detected (PHOTOS)


Paraphrased translation provided by N.K., a concerned citizen in Japan

What follows is a summary of a series blog posts about mysterious radioactive black materials found in and around Minami-Soma City, Fukushima Prefecture, about 25km from the plant.

Black materials looking like sand or powder were found in the Haramachi-ku area of Minami-Soma City.

A similar substance was also found in nearby Soma City.

The materials can reportedly be found many place in Minami-Soma city and Soma city areas.

Here are several recent measurements:

Jan. 27: Measured values in Haramachi-ku using the Inspector +

901 cpm: gamma ray only, with WT Plate, 1cm above GND
13,380 cpm: gamma + beta + alpha, without WTP, 1cm above GND
10,330 cpm: gamma + beta + alpha, with XEROX paper, 1cm above GND

This means that XEROX paper cuts off 3,050 cpm alpha-ray, so the quite strong alpha-ray is radiated from the materials.

Feb. 4: The materials could not be found at Fukushima City, 60km from the plant. Only gamma-ray were strong.

Feb. 6: Normal sand in the area mainly contains Cs134 and Cs137

Gamma-ray: 959 cpm
Gamma + beta + alpha: 2,146 cpm

Feb. 6: Black material in sand

gamma-ray: 3,274 cpm
gamma + beta + alpha: 18,370 cpm

Radiation of the black materials were very strong when compared to the normal-colored sand. The materials have unbelievable beta + alpha.

Feb. 9: Piece of paper cuts shields 7,230 cpm

gamma + beta + alpha: 31,680 cpm, without the paper
gamma + beta + alpha: 24,450 cpm, with the paper

TERRA MKS-05 measures only gamma and beta-ray, XEROX paper did not make much difference

11.53 micro S/h: gamma-ray only, without paper
17.56 micro S/h: gamma + beta, without paper
16.98 micro S/h: gamma + beta, with paper


3,000Bq/kg from Japanese radish
Posted by Mochizuki on February 12th, 2012 · No Comments

Fukushima local government measured 3,000 Bq/Kg of cesium from dried Japanese radish produced in Fukushima.
They have already sold 102 bags of them (50g per bag) at 5 street shops, Fukushima prefecture requested Japan agricultural cooperatives to pick them up and stop distributing.
It was sold from 1/14 to 2/10. The shops are, Azuma, Kuroiwa, Shimizu, Omori, and Yanome.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do you ever post anything positive? Tell us how good Rick Perry is as Govenor!


It's raining in TX
0430Z IMAGE


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do you ever post anything positive?
I know! This guy is even more pessimistic than me! :/
Quoting RTSplayer:
794:

Heard about that a few years ago, but it was in early development.


they are trying to advance the 3-d printer technology to the point that the printer can print "most" of the components to a copy of itself. i.e. self-replication, or very nearly so.


Will it print me a Cadillac?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do you ever post anything positive? Tell us how good Rick Perry is as Govenor!
Thats like a christian sayin what a great guy satan is.

0430Z Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Quoting hydrus:
Thats like a christian sayin what a great guy satan is.
I laughed at this. Probably too hard.
Quoting Patrap:
0430Z IMAGE


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)




What dry air there was is getting pushed out very fast it appears....
Gonna be a Cat5 before Landfall it appears...as its now going through a strengthning phase as the dry air is getting pumped out fast on the SW side....God help those people!
Quoting KoritheMan:

I laughed at this. Probably too hard.
Its o.k. Laughing is good for the soul.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 915.7mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.4 6.8

Dvorak scale calls out for a 150 mph storm and raw Ts at borderline category 5.
Geez, hope the people realize the severity of the storm.

Quoting TampaSpin:



What dry air there was is getting pushed out very fast it appears....
Agreed.
0500Z

OH BOY the eye is shrinking in size....NOT A GOOD THING at all to see that.....we need an EYE WALL Replacement cycle to start occuring
off to bed for me....NITE EVERYONE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do you ever post anything positive? Tell us how good Rick Perry is as Govenor!


According to RitaEvac, the world will end in 6 months. It will ALWAYS end in 6 months.

Unless a republican gets elected. Then it won't end until the democrats get re-elected. In 6 months.
824 Patrap "I don't get the creeping willies too often anymore, but this Dawn Image brings to mind similar days in my past, and I'm sure others here as well.
One can feel the imminence in this shot.


That webcam is pointing NorthNorthWestward. HotelAndilanaBeach webcams
The sky appears even more ominous when looking SouthSouthEastward toward the resort...

...and more toward Giovanna; the center being a bit less than 400miles(644kilometres)SouthEastward
Quoting MidnightLightning:
Looking bad for Madagascar. Much of the island has been severely deforested by the inhabitants for fuel-wood. Mudslides will be as bad there as in Haiti. Hopefully some significant weakening occurs, but given the annular nature of Giovanna, this is unlikely.
well fortunately for Madagascar, this storm is not annular. But regardless, Madagascar is in for a beating, thoughts go out to them.
I'm not sure if it surprises me anymore, but no one is covering this storm. It's absolutely huge, but no one seems to be covering it at all. A lot of people are going to be affected by this thing and no one is covering it...
Giovanna is 400plus-mile radius huge. It's gonna hit the two most important cities in Madagascar.
And it's not threatening the FirstWorld or its major suppliers : nobody's covering it.
The function of the news media is to generate advertising revenue.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 13 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (937 hPa) located at 18.4S 52.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
50 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 175 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 18.8S 50.2E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 19.5S 47.2E - Depression sur Terre
48 HRS: 22.3S 41.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.4S 38.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=====================

0333z TRMM microwave picture shows that an eyewall replacement cycle is ongoing. It was already visible on radar of la reunion for a few hours. Average DT on 6 hours is 5.5. Internal winds fields might a bit change with this ongoing cycle (weaker intensity but storm force winds radius larger).

System is now undergoing the steering influence of the mid-level ridge rebuilding in its south. This deep mid-level ridge would steer the system on a westward to west southwestward track today and then southwestward Tuesday as the the mid-level ridge shifts to the southeast of the cyclone.

Later this afternoon, Giovanna should undergo stronger easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. The impact of this increase with a shear that is in the same direction than the cyclone motion is difficult to appreciate for a system like Giovanna with a self-induced outflow. However with the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle and this constraint, it is likely that intensity might continue to weaken before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar tonight.

The expected landfall is within a 80 km radius from Andovoranto. Weather conditions are expected to worsen rapidly today within the potential landfall area. All inhabitants are invited to closely follow the closing of this dangerous cyclone.

Giovanna should be back over waters of the Mozambique Channel Wednesday within a favorable atmospheric environment with a decreasing easterly shear as the system will move closer to an upper level ridge. According to latest ECMWF run that now suggests a rapid re-intensification, the forecast intensity is again upgraded.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
EarthSky. org has been covering this storm since early this morning. What a beast!
Advance Dvorak Technique (12S)

2012FEB13
070000
T6.6 CI
912.5
129.6 knots

T5.9 Final Dvorak
T7.3 Adjusted
T7.3 Raw
EYE Scene
Weakening ON
Rapid Dissipation OFF
-18.52 south
-52.48 east
Wow, raw T's are now in the 7.2+ range, insane...
Praying for those down in Madagascar.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #18
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 13 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (992 hPa) located at 22.0S 176.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has decreased in the past 24 hours. Cloud tops warming Past 6 hours. Deep convection has decreased near the centre in the last 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine lies to the east of 250hpa Trough and south of an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Good outflow to the south and east but restricted elsewhere. CIMMS analysis indicate system is steered northeastward by a southwesterly Deep layer mean flow into an area of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on approximately 0.40 wrap, yielding DT=2.5. Final Dvorak based on DT, met and PT agree. CI=3.0 due to CI rules.

Dvorak: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a initial northeast movement and recurving it southwestward with gradual weakening in the next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 21.2S 176.2W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 20.7S 176.1W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.1S 176.9W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Despite what may be affecting Giovanna, this thing will still be a devastating storm for Madagascar. It's getting to close for anything to significantly weaken it. I'm hoping for the best for Madagascar.
First rainbands beginning to move ashore. Heavy rains for sure, but we're probably still about 6-10 hours from the onset of tropical storm force winds:

My thoughts and prayers to those in Madagascar. Here in Louisiana it's actually spitting some sleet.
Morning all, BRRRRR 24 here in Zephyrhills Fl. this am.
Hoping for the best for those folks over there as landfall appears will be in the nightime hours.


Long range GFS is going to cause me to lose my mind...
Giovanna is nearing landfall, will probably start going over land before I get home today at 3PM. It's still having troubles closing off that southwestern side with deep convection, which is keeping it from attaining Category 5 intensity. Nonetheless, it is still an extremely strong cyclone and will cause significant damage and loss of life in Madagascar. The country gets off bad with a tropical storm, and this is many, many times worse.

Models seem to agree on a very potent storm Saturday crossing FL from the Gulf. Could be a big rain maker and possibly a severe wx producer.





DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...

UNCERTAINTIES PRESENT FOR THE DAY 3 PERIOD GROW FOR DAY 4...AS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT RICHER GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURN MAY BECOME
CUT OFF FROM THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES REGION.
AND POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC APPEARS LOW...AS A SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO QUEBEC...AND SECONDARY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLY COMMENCES TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A STRONGLY SHEARED
REGIME WITH AT LEAST WEAK TO MODEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/ GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STALLING SURFACE FRONT NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD INCLUDE SOME RISK
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA...
BUT SEVERE PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY APPEAR BELOW THE
MINIMUM THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA /EQUIVALENT
30 PERCENT DAY 3/.
WTIO30 FMEE 130653
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/9/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 52.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 937 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 320 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SW: 260 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/13 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/14 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
36H: 2012/02/14 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
48H: 2012/02/15 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 35.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5 ET CI=6.0
0333Z TRMM MW PICTURE SHOWS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS
ONGOING. IT WAS ALREADY VISIBLE ON RADAR OF LA REUNION FOR A FEW HOURS.
AVERAGE DT ON 6 HOURS IS 5.5. INTERNAL WINDS FIELDS MIGHT A BIT CHANGEWITH THIS ONGOING CYCLE (WEAKER INTENSITY BUT STORM FORCE WINDS
RADIUS LARGER).
SYSTEM IS NOW UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MI-LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDING IN ITS SOUTH. THIS DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TODAY AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TUESDAY AS THE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO STRONGER EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURES. THE IMPACT OF THIS INCREASE WITH A SHEAR THAT IS IN THE
SAME DIRECTION THAN THE CYCLONE MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO APPRECIATE FOR A
SYSTEM LIKE GIOVANNA WITH A SELF-INDUCED OUTFLOW. HOWEVER WITH THE
ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THIS CONSTRAINT, IT IS LIKELY
THAT INTENSITY MIGHT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON THE
EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR TONIGHT.
THE EXPECTED LANDFALL IS WITHIN A 80 KM RADIUS FROM ANDOVORANTO.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN RAPIDLY TODAY WITHIN THE
POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA. ALL INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE CLOSING OF THIS DANGEROUS CYCLONE.
GIOVANNA SHOULD BE BACK OVER WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A
DECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. ACCORDING TO LATEST ECMWF RUN THAT NOW SUGGESTS A RAPID
RE-INTENSIFICATION, THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS AGAIN UPGRADED.

Good news is that I finally picked up on some heavy rain last Friday infact .96 fell in the rain gauge at Wekiva Springs.
See Text for now, but will be upgraded to a Slight risk eventually.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING OUT OF A PERSISTENT STRONG MID
LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...BEFORE SPLITTING OFF INTO A COUPLE OF
LINGERING DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
THIS INCLUDES AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU/ROCKIES...BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ONE OF THESE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING OUT OF THE PLATEAU
REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. SO
THE IMPULSE PROBABLY WILL TEND TO LIFT OUT FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES...BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE INFLUENCE AND EXTENT OF NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGHING EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIVE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG MODELS CONCERNING THE
TIMING AND MANNER IN WHICH THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE ROCKIES...AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS RESULT IN AN UNCERTAIN
CONVECTIVE FORECAST. THE 13/00Z NAM AND SREF SUGGEST THAT
DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FOCUSED MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...PERHAPS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE 13/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF APPEAR TO FAVOR AN AREA FROM NORTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

GIVEN THE RELATIVE SIMILARITIES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND
CONSISTENCIES FROM THEIR PRIOR RUNS...THE LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS AT
LEAST A BIT MORE PROBABLE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO
OUTLOOK SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS DEPICTED IN THE ECMWF...ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...WOULD SEEM TO OFFER GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND
THE EVOLUTION OF AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES.


..KERR.. 02/13/2012


Good Morning
Hoping those areas of sleet/snow ahead of the main precipitation mass will saturate the atmosphere some ahead of schedule.(So I can get more snow!)

And pray for the people of Madagascar, Giovanna will probably pass near the capital.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Advance Dvorak Technique (12S)

2012FEB13
070000
T6.6 CI
912.5
129.6 knots

T5.9 Final Dvorak
T7.3 Adjusted
T7.3 Raw
EYE Scene
Weakening ON
Rapid Dissipation OFF
-18.52 south
-52.48 east


Interesting.

The pressure estimate dropped so much, like 24mb since late last night, even as the wind really only came up 5mph.

But that estimate is in the category 5 range for pressure, In the atlantic, but I think with a basin adjustment is exactly on the borderline of 4 and 5.

But the raw T-numbers are cat 5 range too.

I really didnt expect the pressure to drop 24mb.

Still think it's getting too close to land to keep intensifying, but well, I'm reminded of Andrew unfortunately, if the pressure estimate is correct, it's actually stronger than Andrew right now.

I have a bad feeling now, because if this turns out to be one of those storms that keeps intensifying right up to landfall, it could be bad indeed.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
See Text for now, but will be upgraded to a Slight risk eventually.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING OUT OF A PERSISTENT STRONG MID
LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...BEFORE SPLITTING OFF INTO A COUPLE OF
LINGERING DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
THIS INCLUDES AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU/ROCKIES...BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ONE OF THESE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING OUT OF THE PLATEAU
REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. SO
THE IMPULSE PROBABLY WILL TEND TO LIFT OUT FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES...BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE INFLUENCE AND EXTENT OF NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGHING EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIVE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG MODELS CONCERNING THE
TIMING AND MANNER IN WHICH THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE ROCKIES...AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS RESULT IN AN UNCERTAIN
CONVECTIVE FORECAST. THE 13/00Z NAM AND SREF SUGGEST THAT
DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FOCUSED MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...PERHAPS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE 13/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF APPEAR TO FAVOR AN AREA FROM NORTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

GIVEN THE RELATIVE SIMILARITIES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND
CONSISTENCIES FROM THEIR PRIOR RUNS...THE LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS AT
LEAST A BIT MORE PROBABLE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO
OUTLOOK SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS DEPICTED IN THE ECMWF...ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...WOULD SEEM TO OFFER GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND
THE EVOLUTION OF AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES.


..KERR.. 02/13/2012


Do you have the link to the graphic?
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Good news is that I finally picked up on some heavy rain last Friday infact .96 fell in the rain gauge at Wekiva Springs.

I,m glad someone got the rain. I had .28, better than nothing. I hope this weekend system plans out.Way to dry with all this freezing temps.not a good situation with fire. Had a fire in west Pasco on saturday.
Dry air is really starting to eat away at the west side of the CDO. I would expect weakening next advisory.
building nuke plants all over the world have they ever figured what to do with the spent fuel? throw it in a hole? stumble upon reports a nuke problem today in the us
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL CONTINUING THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AT
LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...NEW GFS RUN HAS
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT
DOWN TO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AND HAS IT DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH
TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY SUNDAY. WL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IF THE TREND
CONTINUES HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN COULD BE INDICATED IN FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES.
Quoting islander101010:
building nuke plants all over the world have they ever figured what to do with the spent fuel? throw it in a hole? stumble upon reports a nuke problem today in the us


Dig a hole in the oceanic plate at the bottom of the Challenger Deep and bury it there.

The plate moves 7 inches per year, which means it would subduct under pretty quickly under the other plate, maximizing shielding, but would not move fast enough to encounter melted rock for many thousands of years, maybe even millions. At 7 inches per year, it would take 9000 years to move 1 mile. The plate would need to move several hundred miles before the radioactive material encountered melting conditions.
Quoting severstorm:

I,m glad someone got the rain. I had .28, better than nothing. I hope this weekend system plans out.Way to dry with all this freezing temps.not a good situation with fire. Had a fire in west Pasco on saturday.


If the models hold up then C and N FL should get a lot of rain starting Friday and continuing thru the weekend. S FL however may not get much from this at all as this front appears it wants to hang up right over C FL.
I'm looking on Google Earth and it looks like the storm is going towards a very sparsley populated area. I can't find a single community.


strike that. Google earth was acting screwy. Looks like there is a small city that could be in the path.


Quoting RitaEvac:
Buildings set ablaze thousands protesting in Greece
its terrible over there, so much destruction, but the people are suffering
Quoting BobinTampa:
I'm looking on Google Earth and it looks like the storm is going towards a very sparsley populated area. I can't find a single community.


strike that. Google earth was acting screwy. Looks like there is a small city that could be in the path.


There aren't many larger coastal cities in Giovanna's projected path, true, so storm surge may not be a huge issue (fingers crossed). But, still, there are a number of places that could be in trouble. For instance, Madagascar's main port city of Toamasina (pop. 200K) may catch a good part of Giovanna's northern (weak) side; Ambohitompoina (40K), Antanifotsy (70K), Fianarantsoa (145K), and the capital city of Antananarivo (1.4 million) are some of the more densely populated locations sure to suffer to some degree.

As others have noted, Madagascar is a hilly island that has been severely deforested (satellite images of the island are very depressing), so the many inches of rain that are expected to be dumped across the island have an alarmingly high chance of causing a large loss of life.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 13 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (939 hPa) located at 18.8S 51.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
40 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM radius from the center extending up to 145 NM in the northern semi-circle and the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
160 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/S0.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 19.1S 49.0E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 20.1S 45.4E - Depression sur Terre
48 HRS: 22.7S 40.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.6S 37.7E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Classical satellite imagery show a presentation that has not evolved for last 6 hours. Average DT on 6 hours is 5.5+. Winds radius have been recalibrated with 0526z ASCAT swath. Without recent microwave picture, it is difficult to follow eyewall replacement cycle that was visible this morning.

System is now undergoing the steering influence of the mid-level ridge rebuilding in its south. This deep mid-level ridge would steer the system on a westward to west-southwestward track today and then southwestward Tuesday as the the mid-level ridge shifts to the southeast of the cyclone.

Before its landfall, Giovanna should undergo a bit stronger easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. The impact of this increase with a shear that is in the same direction than the cyclone motion is difficult to appreciate for a system like Giovanna with a self-induced outflow. However, it is likely that intensity weakens a bit before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar tonight.

The landfall is expected within a 80 km radius from Andovoranto. Weather conditions are expected to worsen rapidly within the next hours between Sainte-Marie island and Mananjary with intensifying rains progressing inland this night. Winds will increase, mainly over the coast within a 150 km radius from landfall where gusts should exceed 100 km/h. Gusts should exceed 180 km/h within a 70 km radius, mainly south from landfall. Storm surge between 2.5 to 3.0 meters are expected south from landfall area. All inhabitants of this sectors are invited to closely follow the arrival of this dangerous cyclone.

Giovanna should be back over waters of the Mozambique Channel Wednesday within a favorable atmospheric environment with a decreasing easterly shear as the system will move closer to an upper level ridge. Latest ECMWF run suggests a rapid re-intensification that is reflected in the official RSMC forecast.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If the models hold up then C and N FL should get a lot of rain starting Friday and continuing thru the weekend. S FL however may not get much from this at all as this front appears it wants to hang up right over C FL.
local weatherguy said as much, but we can use the rain, glad it will be warming up, was pretty cool here this morning, spotty frost as well
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #19
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
0:00 AM FST February 14 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (993 hPa) located at 21.9S 176.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 5 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has decreased in the past 24 hours. Convection has also reduced significantly near the low level circulation center for the last 24 hours. The system lies under an upper trough center in a low sheared environment. Not much environmental steering. Sea surface temperature around 26C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap on log10 spiral, yielding DT=2.0, pt=2.0 and MET=2.0. Final Dvorak based on DT, CI was held at 3.0, 1.0 higher than Final Dvorak. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on this system being a cyclone in the next 72 hours and with a northeast movement.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 21.1S 176.0W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 20.7S 176.3W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.4S 177.4W - 35 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
Quoting RitaEvac:
Buildings set ablaze, thousands protesting, rioting in Greece


Someone over there has to know how to put out a Greece fire.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Buildings set ablaze, thousands protesting, rioting in Greece



And they are protesting because? Because Government is taking away benefits they simply can't afford. Sounds like the US is gonna be facing the same stuff in a few years.
Quoting islander101010:
building nuke plants all over the world have they ever figured what to do with the spent fuel? throw it in a hole? stumble upon reports a nuke problem today in the us


Well that's really the stupid part now isn't it? Spent fuel actually still contains A LOT of fuel, just not enough to maintain the level of output for the reactor. The smart thing to do (and is done by other countries) would be to use breeder reactors (which can also produce electricity) to reprocess spent fuel into useable fuel again. Reprocessing can be performed several times, and greatly reduces the amount of waste produced by reactors overall. But the US banned that over 3 decades ago due to complete idiocy.

You see, breeder reactors can produce small amounts of bomb grade fissile material, and the fear was that terrorists (yes terrorists) would be able to steal this material. Of course, the idea is shear idiocy. The material isn't sitting in a nice little canister somewhere; it's mixed in with the reprocessed fuel. It takes a considerable amount of technology to separate out the bomb grade material, which only exists in countries like the US, France, Germany, etc. . So even if someone could steal enough fuel to get enough material to make a bomb (impossible without a trained crew to handle nuclear material), you still need a full scale nuclear processing center to refine enough material for even a small bomb. And that assumes you even have the technology to make a bomb work in the first place.

So in the meantime, we end up with piles of spent fuel that, ironically, still contains plenty of fuel for electrical production.


Quoting TampaSpin:



And they are protesting because? Because Government is taking away benefits they simply can't afford. Sounds like the US is gonna be facing the same stuff in a few years.


Months
Quoting LargoFl:
its terrible over there, so much destruction, but the people are suffering


Employees in Europe have obscene amounts of guaranteed payed vacation time and stuff like that, which Americans don't get, but this drives up costs to the employer immensely. This is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever seen, because in France everyone gets several weeks of pay-cation per year. I don't know how much it is in Greece.


They also get a lot more free medical services and internet services which the government pays.

Additionally, the price of gasoline is crippling in Europe, since many of the nations don't have strong oil reserves of their own, AND they have the ridiculous taxation on fuels, which they need to pay for all the services they give.
Madagascar Meteorological Services

NR19/09 13/02/2012 1300 UTC
System CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
Name GIOVANNA
Position NEAR 18° 7 S - 51° 5 E
Estimated minimum central Pressure 932 HPA
Maxi average wind (10 mn) near the center 105 KT (195 KM/H)
Gust maxi 145 KT (270 KM/H)
CI Number (Dvorak scale) CI 6.0+
Quoting Xyrus2000:


So in the meantime, we end up with piles of spent fuel that, ironically, still contains plenty of fuel for electrical production.




Yes, this.

Only a couple percent of the fuel is actually depleted in a "spent" fuel rod.

If we did everything else like this, nothing at all would work...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Someone over there has to know how to put out a Greece fire.


Ha-ha :)
I never really realized how useful Google Earth was for viewing current conditions(Until all the weather stations in the area have been knocked out).
At 1400 utc, winds were around 26 mph along the madagascar coast
Quoting RTSplayer:


Yes, this.

Only a couple percent of the fuel is actually depleted in a "spent" fuel rod.

If we did everything else like this, nothing at all would work...


Speaking of Nuclear...


Nuclear Event
Event date: 13.02.2012 04:16:21
Country: United States
State: State of Tennessee
Location:- [Sequoyah Nuclear Power Plant]

N 35 13.580, W 85 5.496

Just a minor event
The U.S. is headed for a rude awakening too.

The baby boomers, etc, most especially.

Back when Social Security was invented, the plan was basicly that each generation would live off the backs of the future generations, but back then, the population growth rate was more like 4 or more children per woman.

Example: I actually have 16 great aunts and uncles on just one quarter of my family tree, and several of them had 4 or 5 kids each.


So you can see how gramps could be confident that the contribution of his 4 to 10 kids was going to pay for SS at the end of his life.

Even retirement plans such as stocks and mutual funds still basicly work(ed) on the same principle: live off the future population growth, and rely on each generation being twice as big as the previous.

In the past 30 years, population growth dropped to 2.1 children per woman, and in the past several years it has dropped to less than 2, I think.


So what this means is that for every 2 retirees, drawing SS and pensions, including state and federal retirements, there will be only 1 worker in the nation.

Additionally, many government retirement plans are paying as much as 90% of income in retirement...for life! With life expectancy increasing 1 year per decade, this means the cost of government wages and salaries is effectively doubled, if not a bit more than that.

Not only will it not work, but they basicly cannot retire....ever...nor can anyone else.

In fact, most people on retirement now need to get off it and go back to work.

In some cases, it's not legal, and they'll never get the votes to do it, but the governments need to abolish, even retroactively, the entire retirement system.

But that's not going to happen until all hell breaks loose.


Plus there isn't any work anyway, because automation and IT has replaced so many jobs.
Supposed to be boomers popping up along the TX coast later today, I'm waiting
Quoting TampaSpin:



And they are protesting because? Because Government is taking away benefits they simply can't afford. Sounds like the US is gonna be facing the same stuff in a few years.
Bottom line: austerity programs don't work. Those who constantly call for them exhibit a clear lack of economic common sense.
Everything is fine out there, in the good ol USA

12,844.97
+43.74
Quoting RitaEvac:


Speaking of Nuclear...


Nuclear Event
Event date: 13.02.2012 04:16:21
Country: United States
State: State of Tennessee
Location:- [Sequoyah Nuclear Power Plant]

N 35� 13.580, W 85� 5.496

Just a minor event
Do you know what happened? That is a county next to mine.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Long range GFS is going to cause me to lose my mind...
Easy..Breath in through the nose and out through the mouth..Ten times, and you will be good as new Geek.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Speaking of Nuclear...


Nuclear Event
Event date: 13.02.2012 04:16:21
Country: United States
State: State of Tennessee
Location:- [Sequoyah Nuclear Power Plant]

N 35%uFFFD 13.580, W 85%uFFFD 5.496

Just a minor event
When I first studied nuclear power in science class, there was 132 nuclear power in the U.S. - Illinois had the most with 15...These are the incidences we have had since 1979.. Plant Location Description Cost
(in millions
2006 $)
Nuclear power plant accidents in the U.S. with more than US$140 million in property damage[50][51] March 28, 1979 Three Mile Island Londonderry Township, Pennsylvania Loss of coolant and partial core meltdown, see Three Mile Island accident and Three Mile Island accident health effects US$2,400
March 9, 1985 Browns Ferry Athens, Alabama Instrumentation systems malfunction during startup, which led to suspension of operations at all three Units US$1,830
April 11, 1986 Pilgrim Plymouth, Massachusetts Recurring equipment problems force emergency shutdown of Boston Edison%u2019s plant US$1,001
March 31, 1987 Peach Bottom Delta, Pennsylvania Units 2 and 3 shutdown due to cooling malfunctions and unexplained equipment problems US$400
December 19, 1987 Nine Mile Point Scriba, New York Malfunctions force Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation to shut down Unit 1 US$150
February 20, 1996 Millstone Waterford, Connecticut Leaking valve forces shutdown of Units 1 and 2, multiple equipment failures found US$254
September 2, 1996 Crystal River Crystal River, Florida Balance-of-plant equipment malfunction forces shutdown and extensive repairs US$384
February 16, 2002 Davis-Besse Oak Harbor, Ohio Severe corrosion of control rod forces 24-month outage US$143
February 1, 2010 Vermont Yankee Vernon, Vermont Deteriorating underground pipes leak radioactive tritium into groundwater supplies US$700--Wiki/