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Much Colder Temps Ahead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:39 PM GMT on December 28, 2014

WEATHERINTEL SERVICES
28-DEC-14 (Next Update TUESDAY – DEC 30)

By Steve Gregory for vacationing Jeff Masters


COLD AIR SPREADING SLOWLY WEST TO EAST

It took long enough, but above normal Temps still lingering in the East will be history by late this week, with very cold conditions likely during Week 2. A fairly impressive storm system will be bringing rain and snow to the central and eastern US by next weekend. At this time, the storm is expected to track from the western Gulf coast region to the Great Lakes – implying rain for much of the coastal Plain in the east, and snow likely from the Plains to the upper Midwest.

A large scale long wave TROF continues to develop over North America, with the center of the Polar Vortex likely to take up residence near Hudson Bay this week along with increased ridging in the EPAC on into Alaska. This will establish a progressively colder flow from the arctic southward into the northern Rockies and central US later this week and will continue across the nation during Week 2 as well.

While the latest global model runs have ‘stabilized’ somewhat in their projections beyond 8 days, there is again a growing disconnect between the global models – with today’s GFS now the ‘coldest’ of the models, as both the longer range ’New’ GFS (which goes operational mid-month) and the latest European model show a more zonal-like flow developing again in 10-14 days. The models continue to struggle with the El Niño like flow pattern that continues to exert itself over the Pacific where basin wide SST anomalies are forcing a highly zonal flow do dominate the central Pacific. With a number of forecast tools showing the EPAC ridge breaking down in 10-14 days as a developing blocking upper level High moves from over Alaska to the Arctic Ocean – we have a reasonable chance of seeing Temps return to near and eventually above normal during the second half of JAN. (Though the models show warming to begin just before mid JAN - with the very cold arctic air in place by Week 2, it will take some time for the arctic air to be displaced - despite the milder, zonal flow aloft that is expected to develop in about 10-14 days.




Fig 1: The Latest GFS forecast compared to the European ECMWF 10 Days out. The GFS shows a very strong vortex centered in eastern Canada with a strong, secondary Vorticity Lobe/TROF westward into the Canadian Rockies. Although a westerly flow off the Pacific is shown impinging on the west coast – overall heights are near normal, and later time steps show the major TROF re-amplifying into the US. OTH, the European and the NEW GFS (not shown) shows a weaker primary vortex in Canada, rising heights in the central and western IS, and a more progressive flow of strong disturbances over the Pacific. This implies a moderating Temp trend in 10-14 days. For the moment, I’ve opted to go with the colder GFS for Week 2.




Fig 2: The GFS Ensemble forecast for the 3 major Teleconnection indices shows a plunge into a negative AO and NAO phase occurring right now, but interestingly, are shown going positive in 7-14 days (though there is high uncertainty for the AO as demonstrated by the large spread in solutions for the individual Ensemble members during Week 2). The negative trending PNA is shown returning to near neutral during Week 2 as well. (A Negative AO and NAO imply below normal Temps over the eastern half of the nation – while Positive values imply warmer than normal. A Positive PNA implies cold weather for the eastern US). In sum – these forecasts argue for near (or even above) normal Temps again developing after mid month.




Fig 3: The above Temperature forecasts are based STRICTLY on the GFS MOS model data output which calls for above normal Temps over the eastern US on AVERAGE during the next 7 days, but anomalies will fall below normal by the end of the week - along with stormier weather next weekend.




Fig 4: The Week 2 Temperature ANOMALY forecast is based on the 12Z run of the HI-RES operational GFS (85%) integrated with the 00Z EURO model (5%) & 12Z GFS ensemble mean (10%) - using the projected pattern, along with the GFS surface and 850mb Temperature forecasts. Some Temp forecasts are adjusted for known or expected anomalous thermal patterns and/or projected storm systems. (The ‘NEW’ GFS was NOT used for today’s forecast.) Though much below normal Temps will dominate the nation, there is still significant uncertainty in the daily Temp forecasts after Day 10. This is due to large variations in the models’ upper air projections – and an equally large uncertainty on where and how much additional snow cover there will be by next week. However, based on much better consistency from run-to-run for the last 5 days, Confidence in the general Temp anomaly pattern and its absolute values, is near average, with a rating of ‘3’ on a Scale of ‘1-5’ for both metrics.


✭ The next Weather Update will be issued TUESDAY – DEC 30

Steve

NOTES:

1. A GENERAL Glossary of Weather Terms can be found HERE

2. Another Glossary of weather terms is available HERE

2 Week Temperature Forecast Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

WARNING:ENTERTAINING REASONS ONLY
More Than 160,000 Evacuated From Worst-Ever Floods In Malaysia
Reuters



A family ride on a boat through floodwater in Pengkalan Chepa, near Kota Bharu on Dec. 26, 2014. (STR/AFP/Getty Images)

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 27 (Reuters) - The number of people evacuated due to Malaysia's worst-ever floods jumped to more than 160,000 on Saturday, as Prime Minister Najib Razak reached the worst-hit state after cutting short a vacation in the U.S.

Najib arrived in Kelantan, which has the biggest problems among eight affected states, following his return from Hawaii on Friday after public criticism he had been absent as flooding worsened.

On Saturday, Najib announced an additional 500 million ringgit ($143.31 million) will be spent to aid victims after the flood subsides, following an initial government allocation of 50 million ringgit two days ago.

The number of people evacuated topped 160,000 at 0700GMT Saturday, according to the New Straits Times newspaper, a sharp increase from 100,000 a day before.

The prime minister attended briefings with the National Security Council, the National Disaster Management and Relief Committee, state government and local emergency responders, a statement on Friday said.

Northeastern peninsular Malaysia, which is worst affected part of the country, is regularly hit by flooding during the annual "northeast monsoon," but this year's rains have been particularly heavy.
Thanks for the update Steve.... more cold weather, huh? Just what i wanted to hear. :/
Quoting 1. washingtonian115:

WARNING:ENTERTAINING REASONS ONLY

Yea P knows what is best.
Quoting 4. whitewabit:

North America Jet Stream Model


Excellent website you found! Adding the el nino page to my recommended list!
P knows that the models are wacky.
The NAM is trending towards the global models, showing only scattered snow showers at best on Tuesday. Little accumulation.

Unrelated to blogbyte topic, forgot to add to  Dr. Masters' blogbyte a few days back when earthquakes was the members topic, figured it'll not be read.

As i was editing another blog comment i noticed much talk of earthquakes by WxU members on a Dr. Masters blogbyte.

To follow a simple idea to help rebuild 2 story homes in Haiti that i've posted 2 or 3 times in 2010 including at 2 well known musician's blogs including Will I Am. 

 First the material needed is being invented/improved by an inventor (i think in Finland or Norway) whom states he figured out a resin that is stronger than cement that can be pre fabricated and is  fireproof.
 
 #1 create molds of floors WITH heavy duty springs embedded in this resin. Springs are to withstand the weight of a well furnished floor and 4 people x 2.  The floor are the standard 7 to 8 feet high floors, yet within corner walls at one end of a floor section at each corner 2 springs are 7 feet in height at the other end within each corner the springs are 4 feet in height.
 The lopsided springs results that when a quake shakes the home the floor though connected to the pre fabricated resin walls become loose at a 5.0 or higher earthquake. This unhinging allows the floor(s) to come off / become disconnected BUT in having the lopsided springs 2 things occur the furniture slides off therefore having a better chance to recover undamaged furniture and appliances MORE IMPORTANT is they are high enough (4 feet on lowest side angling to a higher level towards the 7 foot side) that people in the home either fall to the ground and / or if are in bed or wheel chair are not struck by any floors above.
 My original post had lower feet in height separation but that was as to TEST to see if springs can be added to that resin without compromising the resins strength. .  Other features are special reseeded spikes design   in walls the are built into their sides  that only come out when walls are less than 30 degrees vertical and spikes also on ceilings  (hidden within where floors connect to walls as to ceilings only come out if floors FULLY disconnect ) these spikes allow the prefabricated pieces to "catch" into earth so floors do not slide down mountain sides. Each prefabricated piece has a serial number fully "stamp embedded" into the prefabricated piece therefore not removable. If one reads the 3 other versions of this idea (posted 2010-summer/fall) you'll find a few more tips. Going to read (Dr. Masters)  Mr. Gregory's intro to this blogbyte now, i know one should read the blog subject first but then i'll forget to post this comment.,peace
Good Space Station view AL and FL this evening, ~6:27 PM
11. DDR
Trinidad radar,unusual rain storm heading in,no el nino anytime soon...
Link
12. vis0

Quoting 6. TimTheWxMan:



Excellent website you found! Adding the el nino page to my recommended list!
though i "+" this link, the some of the graphics are from last yr (2013) i see the "Updated as Warranted" in title but though graphics would have been auto updated.
good blog!!
Thanks for the Post Steve...
This Weekend
Winter Storm Frona is already bringing significant snow to the Cascades, Bitterroots and the Wasatch mountains. Total snow accumulations have topped a foot in higher elevations, and winter storm warnings were posted for many of these areas. Most of those warnings have either expired or have been canceled.

Top reported snowfall totals so far include 19 inches outside of Jaype in Clearwater County, Idaho; 18 inches at Mount Spokane Ski Resort in Washington; 18 inches near Whitefish Summit in northwest Montana; 11 inches of snow north of Elgin in northeast Oregon; and 4 inches in Holladay, Utah, near Salt Lake City.

Valley locations will also see snow as the cold air dives southward, with generally less than 5 inches expected. This includes cities such as Great Falls, Montana.

Winter storm warnings have been downgraded to less-serious winter weather advisories for Salt Lake City and the Wasatch Front, where snow has already developed. Additional accumulations on the order of 1 to 3 inches are anticipated, with some higher amounts possible in the mountains.


here come the cold weather!!
Winter Storm Watch now up for portions of the Southwest.

I wish some of that cold air would make it to Miami. Alas, the 10 day weather channel forecast keeps us in 80 degree temps and 60-70 % humidity. I'm sick of the year round humidity and heat. We haven't had a cool winter in years.
6. TimTheWxMan
10:06 PM GMT on December 28, 2014

Quoting 4. whitewabit:

North America Jet Stream Model


Excellent website you found! Adding the el nino page to my recommended list!

Its mainly a surfer's web site but it's all about weather ..
Quoting 18. bluehaze27:
I wish some of that cold air would make it to Miami. Alas, the 10 day weather channel forecast keeps us in 80 degree temps and 60-70 % humidity. I'm sick of the year round humidity and heat. We haven't had a cool winter in years.


~ absolutely speechless ~
Say hello to Tropical Storm Jangmi/Seniang, the 23rd named storm of 2014 pacific typhoon season.
Winds: 40 mph
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM JANGMI (1423)
9:00 AM JST December 29 2014
===================================
Overland Mindanao

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Jangmi (1000 hPa) located at 8.9N 126.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 9.0N 123.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Visayas region
48 HRS: 8.3N 120.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea
72 HRS: 7.6N 118.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL STORM SENIANG
5:00 AM PhST December 29 2014
=============================
"SENIANG" has intensified into tropical storm and made landfall over Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Seniang (997 hPa) located at 8.6N 126.3E or within the vicinity of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gustiness up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Signal Warnings
============

Signal Warning #2

Visayas region
--------------
1. Bohol
2. Siquijor

Mindanao region
------------------
1. Surigao del Sur
2. Surigao del Norte
3. Siargao Island
4. Agusan del Norte
5. Agusan del Sur
6. Misamis Oriental
7. Camiguin

Signal Warning #1

Visayas region
--------------
1. Leyte
2. Southern Leyte
3. Camotes Island
4. Cebu
5. Negros Oriental
6. Negros Occidental

Mindanao region
------------------
1. Dinagat Province
2. Compostela Valley
3. northern part of Davao Oriental
4 .Davao del Norte
5 .Bukidnon
6. Lanao del Norte
7. Misamis Occidental
8. Zamboanga del Norte

Additional Information
======================
Has made landfall over Bakulin, Hinatuan Surigao del Sur early this morning and will exit the landmass of Agusan del Norte by noon then will traverse Bohol sea.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15–30 mm per hour (heavy - intense) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of the provinces with PWS #2 and PWS #1 especially Caraga Region as well as over Eastern Visayas and the rest of Mindanao are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Ocean waves may reach up to 5 meters.

Fisher folks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the eastern seaboards of Luzon and the seaboard of Visayas and over the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11AM today.
Quoting 1. washingtonian115:

WARNING:ENTERTAINING REASONS ONLY




I thought that's was the purpose of the blog," WARNING:ENTERTAINING REASONS ONLY" since it has a sincerity rating of 10 percent,.
Quoting 17. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Winter Storm Watch now up for portions of the Southwest.




I did military training in those areas in the 80's-90's. snow/ice in the dessert is not uncommon.
Kate no longer a hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY TWO (04U)
8:39 AM WST December 29 2014
=====================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category Two (982 hPa) located at 14.6S 91.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 15.4S 91.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 16.7S 90.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 19.1S 87.1E- 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 21.3S 82.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================
Kate has continued to move slowly towards the southwest during the past 6 hours with the center located by ssmis image at 2218Z.

Infrared and microwave images have shown a marked weakening over the past 24 hours as convection is no longer tightly wrapped around the system center. However, over the past 6 hours imagery suggests that system intensity has remained steady with the low level circulation under the deepest convection.

DVORAK analysis using an embedded center pattern gives DT of 4-4.5 over the past 6 hours though FT has been weighted to MET giving FT=4.0, CI=4.0.

Model guidance is consistent in forecasting a steady southwest movement with a steady or slowly weakening trend for the next 24 hours. The environment then becomes unfavorable with increasing vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures likely to cause more rapid weakening.

Wind structure is expected to become more asymetric and gales are forecast to extend further south from the weakening cyclone due to a strong pressure gradient to the south.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST December 29 2014
==============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 05F (1002 hPa) located at 16.0S 171.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection remains persistent in the past 6 hours. Organization remains poor. The system lies under an upper diffulent region in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the southeast. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked the system and move it southeastwards with slight intensification.

The potential for this depression to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.
Quoting 20. aquak9:



~ absolutely speechless ~


Did I say something humorous to you? Why are you "speechless?" Is it because I want some cool dry air for a change? Is it because you want warm weather? Is it because you think Miami is not supposed to get cool air? I am not asking for 20 degree temps, just some 60 degree days and 40 degree nights with less humidity? Why would that make you speechless? I have news for you, Miami does occasionally get cold but hasn't in quite a few years. Also, when you've lived here for 41 years you'd be asking for some seasonal change as well. Eighty degree days with 70% humidity in winter sucks. Anybody that thinks it is so wonderful needs to spend a few summers down here. You'll be crying for some cool dry air too.
Quoting 28. bluehaze27:



Did I say something humorous to you? Why are you "speechless?" Is it because I want some cool dry air for a change? Is it because you want warm weather? Is it because you think Miami is not supposed to get cool air? I am not asking for 20 degree temps, just some 60 degree days and 40 degree nights with less humidity? Why would that make you speechless? I have news for you, Miami does occasionally get cold but hasn't in quite a few years. Also, when you've lived here for 41 years you'd be asking for some seasonal change as well. Eighty degree days with 70% humidity in winter sucks. Anybody that thinks it is so wonderful needs to spend a few summers down here. You'll be crying for some cool dry air too.
Already can't stand D.C summers so I'm glad when the cool temps start coming in.
Quoting 28. bluehaze27:


Did I say something humorous to you? Why are you "speechless?" Is it because I want some cool dry air for a change? Is it because you want warm weather? Is it because you think Miami is not supposed to get cool air? I am not asking for 20 degree temps, just some 60 degree days and 40 degree nights with less humidity? Why would that make you speechless? I have news for you, Miami does occasionally get cold but hasn't in quite a few years. Also, when you've lived here for 41 years you'd be asking for some seasonal change as well. Eighty degree days with 70% humidity in winter sucks. Anybody that thinks it is so wonderful needs to spend a few summers down here. You'll be crying for some cool dry air too.


My goodness. The heat really IS getting to you!

It's Miami. If you've been there forty-one years...well ya can't blame it on anyone but yourself. I'm just up the road, and this is the third year with no winter. But really. You complaining about warm winters in Miami is like me complaining about no snow in Jacksonville.

I know you can't read inflection and tone in the typewritten format, but I was really smiling.
Quoting 29. washingtonian115:

Already can't stand D.C summers so I'm glad when the cool temps start coming in.
Rome possibly getting snow is just amazing.
Quoting 29. washingtonian115:

Already can't stand D.C summers so I'm glad when the cool temps start coming in.
Amen. Some of us are cold weather people. I am a cold weather person who is stuck in this toilet called Miami out of circumstance (my job...I'm a weather observer... and taking care of elderly parents.) Summer will be here soon enough. Is it really so much to ask for a few real fronts to make it through here? Is it really so much to ask for some cool air to give my a/c and electric bill a break. For those who live here and want warm weather, as soon as the winds shift to the Northeast and off the ocean, the warm temps will be back. Is it so wrong to ask for a bit of snow in Miami like in 1977...now I'm being facetious...
Quoting 32. Climate175:

Rome possibly getting snow is just amazing.
My relatives in Sicily are also expecting snow...
Quoting 33. bluehaze27:

Amen. Some of us are cold weather people. I am a cold weather person who is stuck in this toilet called Miami out of circumstance (my job and taking care of elderly parents.) Summer will be here soon enough. Is it really so much to ask for a few real fronts to make it through here? Is it really so much to ask for some cool air to give my a/c and electric bill a break. For those who live here and want warm weather, as soon as the winds shift to the Northeast and off the ocean, the warm temps will be back. Is it so wrong to ask for a bit of snow in Miami like in 1977...now I'm being facetious...


Sounds like you're having a bad day. I'm a cold weather person myself (grew up in Ohio). I have the benefit of living in Houston where it does get cold. You sound like me though, when summer rolls around in Houston, I practically beg for rain in the summer as the heat and the electric bill get up there.
Certainly there are things that you like about Miami?
Is it so wrong to ask for a bit of snow in Miami like in 1977...now I'm being facetious...

now you're REALLY making me laugh...but I do feel pity, yes I remember the snow of 1977. Sigh....

But think of the Picadillo! the Rabo Encendido! Ham Croquettes! Tostones! Cuban Coffee! Guava pastries! REAL avocadoes!

Quoting 36. aquak9:

Is it so wrong to ask for a bit of snow in Miami like in 1977...now I'm being facetious...

now you're REALLY making me laugh...but I do feel pity, yes I remember the snow of 1977. Sigh....

But think of the Picadillo! the Rabo Encendido! Ham Croquettes! Tostones! Cuban Coffee! Guava pastries! REAL avocadoes!




There are FAKE avocadoes ?? That's why that one tasted like plastic ..
Christmas high of 61 at 12:01 a.m, 59 in afternoon and down to 41 by midnight. December 26th 36/64, December 27th 48/72 and December 28th 52/81 Down to 63 now at my house.

Rainfall before Christmas

12/20 0.01"
12/21 0.48"
12/22 0.98"
12/23 0.38"
12/24 0.46"

Total: 2.31" a bit below the NWS forecast. Still 4 out of 5 isn't bad!

No AC needed here yet with the cool evenings and nights. But tonight could be close.
Quoting 36. aquak9:

Is it so wrong to ask for a bit of snow in Miami like in 1977...now I'm being facetious...

now you're REALLY making me laugh...but I do feel pity, yes I remember the snow of 1977. Sigh....

But think of the Picadillo! the Rabo Encendido! Ham Croquettes! Tostones! Cuban Coffee! Guava pastries! REAL avocadoes!


I'm glad I made you laugh.;-) I really should take a job in Alaska like my coworker did a few months ago, but I don't think my wife will let me. Why I hate Miami: strip mall hell, too many toll roads, too many mosquitos (Alaska is actually worse), too humid., takes to long to get out of the state and then where am I? Georgia for god sake. No decent rock bands come here (not that they would come to Alaska) the winters are too warm, and South Florida is too flat with no real scenery. I'm not a beach person and the Everglades is nothing to crow over. Positives are indeed the Cuban coffee, croquettes, mojo marinade and the Middle Keys...
Quoting 36. aquak9:

Is it so wrong to ask for a bit of snow in Miami like in 1977...now I'm being facetious...

now you're REALLY making me laugh...but I do feel pity, yes I remember the snow of 1977. Sigh....

But think of the Picadillo! the Rabo Encendido! Ham Croquettes! Tostones! Cuban Coffee! Guava pastries! REAL avocadoes!




Quoting 37. whitewabit:



There are FAKE avocadoes ?? That's why that one tasted like plastic ..
South Florida avocadoes look like they are on steroids. They are huge, not like those tiny hand grenade-like Hass Avocados. The avocados are also a plus for Miami.
Quoting 41. bluehaze27:
South Florida avocadoes look like they are on steroids. They are huge, not like those tiny hand grenade-like Hass Avocadoes. The avocadoes are also a plus for Miami.


Remember we went nearly twelve years without them, after Andrew? That's the only reason those nasty little California avocados ever got a foothold in the Florida market.

Now they're back to the size of footballs, thank goodness.

(waves hi to Donnie)
What are the current el nino conditions and probabilities?
Quoting 42. aquak9:



Remember we went nearly twelve years without them, after Andrew? That's the only reason those nasty little California avocados ever got a foothold in the Florida market.

Now they're back to the size of footballs, thank goodness.
You are right about the avocados...Southeast Florida (south of Coral Gables) is a tale of two eras: pre-Andrew and post-Andrew.
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
What are the current el nino conditions and probabilities?
We will find that out tomorrow. :)
The ferry fire off of Italy was contained. 201 people had been rescued. 276 are still on board , mostly on the upper deck exposed to the cold & storm. There has only been one confirmed death. Rescue efforts are being hampered greatly by weather and smoke. Apparently the vehicle area below is what burned. It was reported the tankers were parked tight & may have scraped the ceiling in rough seas setting off the blaze.
Quoting 38. DonnieBwkGA:

Christmas high of 61 at 12:01 a.m, 59 in afternoon and down to 41 by midnight. December 26th 36/64, December 27th 48/72 and December 28th 52/81 Down to 63 now at my house.

Rainfall before Christmas

12/20 0.01"
12/21 0.48"
12/22 0.98"
12/23 0.38"
12/24 0.46"

Total: 2.31" a bit below the NWS forecast. Still 4 out of 5 isn't bad!

No AC needed here yet with the cool evenings and nights. But tonight could be close.

Better temps than here, and Rain too, lucky you....
Quoting 34. bluehaze27:

My relatives in Sicily are also expecting snow...


It is not that rare either. There has been lots of snowfalls in Northern Sicilian coast , surely it is much more common than in Houston or New Orleans. Different story in the Southern Coast, but still there has been several episodes too. Last WIDESPREAD snowfall with accumulations on the Sicilian beaches has been in 1999.
Quoting 32. Climate175:

Rome possibly getting snow is just amazing.


Why ???
Why amazing? Snow in Rome is perfectly normal.It doesn t necessarely fall every winter, but it is part of the norm. There has been about 400 snowfalls since the opening of the Observatory in the mid 700, on average of 2 snowy days a year. There had been strong snowfalls with huge accumulations in February 2012, February 2010, December 2010 etc....
In the warmest part of the city center (Collegio Romano Observatory), it has accumulated 350 centimeters of snow since 1900, in the Northern and Eastern part much much more..
Take your count.
Snow in Rome is DOZENS times more normal than in Houston or New Orleans or Charleston for example.
Quoting 49. maxcrc:



Why ???
Why amazing? Snow in Rome is perfectly normal.It doesn t necessarely fall every winter, but it is part of the norm. There has been about 400 snowfalls since the opening of the Observatory in the mid 700, on average of 2 snowy days a year. There had been strong snowfalls with huge accumulations in February 2012, February 2010, December 2010 etc....
In the warmest part of the city center (Collegio Romano Observatory), it has accumulated 350 centimeters of snow since 1900, in the Northern and Eastern part much much more..
Take your count.
Snow in Rome is DOZENS times more normal than in Houston or New Orleans or Charleston for example.
True.
according to articles I found on the web the last time it snowed in Rome was 25 -26 years ago ..
Snow falls in Rome for the first time in 26 YEARS as -36c temperatures across eastern Europe send death toll to 150
Tropical Storm "SENIANG" has maintained its strength and is now moving towards Agusan Del Norte

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Seniang (JANGMI) (997 hPa) located at 9.1N 125.8E or 33 km northeast of Butuan City or 30 km east of Cabadbaran City has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gustiness up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Signal Warnings
============

Signal Warning #2

These areas will have stormy weather with heavy to intense rains. Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Visayas region
--------------
1. Bohol
2. Siquijor
3. Southern Cebu
4. Negros Oriental
5. Southern part of Negros Occidental

Mindanao region
------------------
1. Surigao del Norte
2. Siargao Island
3. Agusan del norte
4. Misamis Oriental
5. Camiguin
6. Agusan del Sur

Signal Warning #1

These areas will have moderate to heavy rains with occasional gusty winds. Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Visayas region
--------------
1. Leyte
2. Southern Leyte
3. Camotes Island
4. Rest of Cebu
5. Rest of Negros Occidental
6. Guimaras.

Mindanao region
------------------
1. Northern part of Davao Oriental
2. Davao del Norte
3. Bukidnon
4. Lanao del Norte
5. Lanao del Sur
6. Misamis Occidental
7. Zamboanga del Norte
8. Zamboanga del Sur
9. Zamboanga Sibugay
10. Compostella Valley
11. Dinagat Province

Additional Information
======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15–30 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of the provinces with PWS #2 and PWS #1 especially Caraga Region as well as over the rest of Visayas and of Mindanao are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Ocean waves may reach up to 5 meters.

Fisher folks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the eastern seaboards of Luzon and the seaboard of Visayas and over the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5PM today.
Quoting 18. bluehaze27:

I wish some of that cold air would make it to Miami. Alas, the 10 day weather channel forecast keeps us in 80 degree temps and 60-70 % humidity. I'm sick of the year round humidity and heat. We haven't had a cool winter in years.

Agreed. While my horticultural interest has led me to landscape my entire yard as if I was in Miami (I'm actually just north of Orlando) this warm muggy weather is just a drag. We had had just enough chilly weather for some nice fall colors to show here. As this warm weather has persisted, the color change has stopped and the deciduous trees have just dropped the remaining leaves. There is something to be said for four seasons and a nice snowfall occasionally. The climate in the DC area was nice when I lived there.
Quoting 51. whitewabit:

according to articles I found on the web the last time it snowed in Rome was 25 -26 years ago ..
Snow falls in Rome for the first time in 26 YEARS as -36c temperatures across eastern Europe send death toll to 150



Speaking of rare snow, there's a winter storm watch for Vegas as an arctic system moves over central arizona around new year's. Most of the snow in that area occurs above 2000 ft. but hardly in the city itself. My thinking is that most of the snow will fall on New Year's Eve, then it'll move northeast in colorado on thursday. It looks like they may get 1-3 inches of snow, most on wednesday afternoon.

Also, there's this:





If I'm not mistaken, then that little area of snow near the coast includes Huntington beach and long beach.
Quoting 36. aquak9:

Is it so wrong to ask for a bit of snow in Miami like in 1977...now I'm being facetious...

now you're REALLY making me laugh...but I do feel pity, yes I remember the snow of 1977. Sigh....

But think of the Picadillo! the Rabo Encendido! Ham Croquettes! Tostones! Cuban Coffee! Guava pastries! REAL avocadoes!




Vegas might be getting a little snow wednesday. In case you haven't noticed, I'm a warm weather person, although i do like cool mornings and nights when i go on a bike ride or walk my dog. Guess most people on this blog are wishing for snow in miami. How did that aerosmith song go? Oh yeah: Dream onnnnn, dream onnnnn, dream onnnnn, dream onnnn.
Quoting 53. HurrMichaelOrl:


Agreed. While my horticultural interest has led me to landscape my entire yard as if I was in Miami (I'm actually just north of Orlando) this warm muggy weather is just a drag. We had had just enough chilly weather for some nice fall colors to show here. As this warm weather has persisted, the color change has stopped and the deciduous trees have just dropped the remaining leaves. There is something to be said for four seasons and a nice snowfall occasionally. The climate in the DC area was nice when I lived there.

I'm sort of done with Florida: a lot because of living most of my life here. I would come back, but a change to somewhere with nice genuine 4 seasons with at least guaranteed snow each winter would be more exciting and refreshing.
47F degrees in Homer Alaska Today... Winter isn't in AK just yet. Fairbanks hasn't seen a -20F or lower day yet either. Although that is supposed to change next week.

Anchorage hasn't seen any temps below zero at all yet and the temp keeps popping up above freezing. Glad to see that winter is coming to the MId-west to East Coast though.
Quoting 31. Climate175:




On a real DC summer day, the sky would be white and you could see perhaps two to four miles through haze and glop
Quoting 56. opal92nwf:


I'm sort of done with Florida: a lot because of living most of my life here. I would come back, but a change to somewhere with nice genuine 4 seasons with at least guaranteed snow each winter would be more exciting and refreshing.


I am grateful for the chance to live, work and study for almost three years in TLH. I used to like heat and eagerly anticipated what I could do with the longer growing season. But eventually I came to miss real winter and was glad to take a job back in DC after graduating. Now I'd prefer a colder climate than DC but thick social roots and job keep me here.

I always picture the deciduous trees at spring greenup in TLH as looking like you feel when the alarm clock goes off at 3:AM after you didn't get to bed till midnight.. a point I've made previously in posts.
The Arctic is warming at twice the rate of the Global Avg...

Bad,bad, and worse bad..

Have a great evening.

NSIDC 2014
The following items link to media coverage of NSIDC in various news outlets, online magazines, editorial pieces, and blogs. The content of these articles and blog posts does not necessarily reflect the views of NSIDC, our collaborators, or our funding agencies.


Explaining mysterious "pancake ice" on river in Scotland
UKProgressive.co.uk (United Kingdom), Wed, 2014-12-24
Falmouth snowmobilers chill as warm weather pervades
TheForecaster.net, Tue, 2014-12-23
Report: Arctic losing more of signature snow
ExpressNews.com, Tue, 2014-12-23
These mysterious ice pancakes have taken over a Scottish River
Gizmodo.com, Mon, 2014-12-22
Greenland's ice loss now comes from surface
LiveScience.com, Mon, 2014-12-22
This article also appeared in the following source:
Discovery News, and Yahoo! News
Explaining mysterious "pancake ice" on river in Scotland
National Geographic, Fri, 2014-12-19
Seven ways higher ed institutions are increasingly joining forces
EducationDive.com, Thu, 2014-12-18
Ice loss in Greenland could be more than previously predicted
NewsMaine.net, Wed, 2014-12-17
Why aren't climate models better at predicting Arctic sea ice loss?
CarbonBrief.org, Wed, 2014-12-17
Report: Arctic loses snow, ice; absorbs more heat
WTOP.com, Wed, 2014-12-17
Arctic report card paints a less than bright outlook, with more heat absorbed, less reflected
US News & World Report, Wed, 2014-12-17
Greenland's ice-melt models may be too sunny
LiveScience.com, Tue, 2014-12-16
This item also appeared in the following source:
MNN.com
Greenland ice loss more
DelhiDailyNews.com (India), Tue, 2014-12-16
Greenland's ice sheet could melt faster than previously thought, studies suggest
Weather.com, Tue, 2014-12-16
Why Greenland could lose more ice than expected
Full-TimeWhistle.com, Tue, 2014-12-16
Why Greenland could lose more of ice sheet than predicted
The Christian Science Monitor, Tue, 2014-12-16
Climate: Is melting Arctic sea ice shifting the jet stream?
SummitCountyVoice.com, Tue, 2014-12-16
Greenland's contribution to sea level rise is the same this century: study
WTexas.com, Tue, 2014-12-16
Greenland ice loss more 'local' than thought, climate study says
Alaska Dispatch, Tue, 2014-12-16
Greenland could melt more quickly in the future than existing models predict
FrontLineDesk.com, Tue, 2014-12-16
The melting Arctic - John Nissen's emergency call to action
TheEcologist.org, Mon, 2014-12-15
Arctic sea ice "more resilient" than thought
ReportingClimateScience.com, Mon, 2014-12-15
Bad news for Florida: Models of Greenland ice melting could be way off
NBC News, Mon, 2014-12-15
The toothless climate change agenda
Daily Maverick (South Africa), Mon, 2014-12-15
Hidden movements of Greenland Ice Sheet, runoff revealed
ScienceCodex.com, Mon, 2014-12-15
This item also appeared in the following source:
SpaceDaily.com

Pages,1 of 26

......and 25 mo pages to boot if ya need to er, "study" the trends there to come up to speed on the data.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Speaking of rare snow, there's a winter storm watch for Vegas as an arctic system moves over central arizona around new year's. Most of the snow in that area occurs above 2000 ft. but hardly in the city itself. My thinking is that most of the snow will fall on New Year's Eve, then it'll move northeast in colorado on thursday. It looks like they may get 1-3 inches of snow, most on wednesday afternoon.

Also, there's this:





If I'm not mistaken, then that little area of snow near the coast includes Huntington beach and long beach.
I'd be very surprised to snow in Huntington Beach. The SST is 64 degrees, and it would have to be quite a cold wave to overcome that kind kind of temperature differential. Vegas already had a Winter Storm Watch in place for New Year's Eve and Day. It could be quite a mess, with snow down to 1500 ft, and accumulating snow above 2,000 feet. The Summerlien area may see the most snow that's ever fallen since the area started to develop in the 1970's, close to six inches. 93 north will likely be closed south at Railroad Pass and north at Indian Springs. The sports books will be taking bets on official snow fall at certain locations. Now's the time to convert your hard won knowledge into some cash! :-) Just don't park you car in a casino lot overnight. It might take days to find it again.
Quoting 61. sar2401:

I'd be very surprised to snow in Huntington Beach. The SST is 64 degrees, and it would have to be quite a cold wave to overcome that kind kind of temperature differential. Vegas already had a Winter Storm Watch in place for New Year's Eve and Day. It could be quite a mess, with snow down to 1500 ft, and accumulating snow above 2,000 feet. The Summerlien area may see the most snow that's ever fallen since the area started to develop in the 1970's, close to six inches. 93 north will likely be closed south at Railroad Pass and north at Indian Springs. The sports books will be taking bets on official snow fall at certain locations. Now's the time to convert your hard won knowledge into some cash! :-) Just don't park you car in a casino lot overnight. It might take days to find it again.


I'm going for the middle of the road scenario and calling 2 inches on the dot in downtown Vegas. Funny how you mention casinos as i hope to go to one on my 21st birthday, though i don't consider myself a big spender.
Quoting 58. georgevandenberghe:



On a real DC summer day, the sky would be white and you could see perhaps two to four miles through haze and glop


It was pretty nice when i visited there in July during a cooldown so there wasn't much of the oppressive heat and humidity you'd typically see there.
Quoting maxcrc:


Why ???
Why amazing? Snow in Rome is perfectly normal.It doesn t necessarely fall every winter, but it is part of the norm. There has been about 400 snowfalls since the opening of the Observatory in the mid 700, on average of 2 snowy days a year. There had been strong snowfalls with huge accumulations in February 2012, February 2010, December 2010 etc....
In the warmest part of the city center (Collegio Romano Observatory), it has accumulated 350 centimeters of snow since 1900, in the Northern and Eastern part much much more..
Take your count.
Snow in Rome is DOZENS times more normal than in Houston or New Orleans or Charleston for example.
Yeah, I don't know where the Guardian got their data about snow in Rome bit ti's clearly wrong. This was in February, 2010.



It snowed when I was the in Rome in 2007 as well, and I'd guess it was around three-four inches. Like all semitropical climate locales, it can go years without any snowfall or just a couple of flakes worth. It seems like it had some flakes every couple of years and a measurable snow about every six years. Take along some warm clothing too, since it does get windy and cold in January and February.
Quoting 64. sar2401:

Yeah, I don't know where the Guardian got their data about snow in Rome bit ti's clearly wrong. This was in February, 2010.



It snowed when I was the in Rome in 2007 as well, and I'd guess it was around three-four inches. Like all semitropical climate locales, it can go years without any snowfall or just a couple of flakes worth. It seems like it had some flakes every couple of years and a measurable snow about every six years. Take along some warm clothing too, since it does get windy and cold in January and February.



I have all meteorological data of Rome since its starting, snow is PERFECTLY NORMAL,although as you said, it doesn't necessarely fall every winter, specially in the past decades. The long term average is 2 days of snow per year, albeit since the GW the average of the past decades is obviously lower.
In February 2012 there was a tremendous snowfall up to 15-20cm which LASTED DAYS, in February 2010 another one with 7cm but that lasted hours indeed, in December another one with 2cm.
I am not sure about the photgraph above, it could either be the Feb 2012 or the Feb 2010 events, not that of December which was minor (it snowed more on the coast in that occasion)
Rome has NOT A SUBTROPICAL CLIMATE at all, i don't know where you read that absurde classification.It must be that ignorant of Koppen who made the worst , most wrong and most stupid climatic classification ever seen in history. Rome has a 100% CLASSIC WARM TEMPERATE MARITIME climate (also known as mediterranean, but i don't like this term, because it is not restricted to the Mediterranean, but the Koppen's mind was so small he had no other ideas as to associate warm temperate with subtropical or mediterranean and all great variability in the climates of China altogether with "Sino climate" for his tremendous ignorance and absolute incompetence to even attempt a correct climatic classification) with dry summers, and mostly humid autunms and falls with moderate humid winters. Subtropical climates are called subtropical because they have the influence of moisture in summer, like in Southern Texas, Southern Louisiana, Northern Floridas, the Bermuda: those are subtropical climates, Rome is absolutely different.It has NOTHING (i repeat ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with subtropical climates which have the influences of the both the tropical rainy season in summer and the warm temperate rains in winter).
Examples of subtropical climates in different areas: Orlando, New Orleans, Houston, Guangzhou, Taipei, Brisbane (not Perth on the other coast with dry summers and rainy winters which is like California WARM TEMPERATE OCEANIC and like Moroccoan coast) , Durban, Florianopolis , Islamabad ,etc....

Quoting TimTheWxMan:


I'm going for the middle of the road scenario and calling 2 inches on the dot in downtown Vegas. Funny how you mention casinos as i hope to go to one on my 21st birthday, though i don't consider myself a big spender.
OK, here's a tip from someone who used to be local. Go to the Ramparts Casino in Summerlin. Nice laid back place and just about the only ones that play there are locals and they aren't pushy. Great odds on video poker, and they are one of the few casinos left in Vegas that deal blackjack from a single deck and stand on all 17's. Make your way to the sports book and ask if they are starting to take bets on the snow. Up until 2005, when I moved, they were, and it's kind of a fun thing for the locals. This will only cost you $20.

Check the weather synopsis, but don't do it from your phone where you can be seen by the guys at the sports book. They may refuse your bet because they thing you're a pro. Stay real low key and do a lot of head scratching. I don't know what they're charging for proposition bets now but it used to be a buck. Bet a buck on nothing measurable after checking the odds. Depending on how excited the other players are (they'll mostly be housewives), you might get 15 or even 20 to 1 on no accumulations. If the prop isn't high enough, bump the bet to $2 so you get your $20 back if the forecast blows.

Now you're going to be the most likely outcome. Check people's Facebook posts to see what your competition thinks. If everyone else thinks five inches, bet $10 on four inches and maybe two dollars on five inches, or bet the big one on the five inches if you really think that's going to happen.

Bet the rest on a buck for 6 inches, 7 inches, and so on until you're out of money. Get a drink and nurse it all night but don't get drunk. Casinos like to see players that act drunk, so practice acing tipsy. Being young is a big help since they assume you're an idiot, but be prepared to show your ID to every new guard that comes on duty.

With $20 split up, you could win maybe $120 if you hit it right in the head. They should also have an over and under bet on the official NWS forecast, and that's fun to play without losing your shirt. The official measuring spot should be some roped off area of the parking lot, so check that out and make sure there's not some local condition, like wind or a divot in the lot surface that might be for or against you.

It's kind of fun to do this kind of betting, especially since your're young and this isn't just pure chance. I only expect half the winnings if you do well. If you lose it all, well, that's just because you made an error in the system. :-)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM JANGMI (1423)
15:00 PM JST December 29 2014
===================================
In Sulu Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Jangmi (998 hPa) located at 9.4N 125.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 9.0N 122.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea
48 HRS: 8.3N 120.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea
72 HRS: 7.5N 117.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea
Quoting maxcrc:


I have all meteorological data of Rome since its starting, snow is PERFECTLY NORMAL,although as you said, it doesn't necessarely fall every winter, specially in the past decades. The long term average is 2 days of snow per year, albeit since the GW the average of the past decades is obviously lower.
In February 2012 there was a tremendous snowfall up to 15-20cm which LASTED DAYS, in February 2010 another one with 7cm but that lasted hours indeed, in December another one with 2cm.
I am not sure about the photgraph above, it could either be the Feb 2012 or the Feb 2010 events, not that of December which was minor (it snowed more on the coast in that occasion)
Rome has NOT A SUBTROPICAL CLIMATE at all, i don't know where you read that absurde classification.It must be that ignorant of Koppen who made the worst , most wrong and most stupid climatic classification ever seen in history. Rome has a 100% CLASSIC WARM TEMPERATE MARITIME climate (also known as mediterranean, but i don't like this term, because it is not restricted to the Mediterranean, but the Koppen's mind was so small he had no other ideas) with dry summers, and mostly humid autunms and falls with moderate humid winters. Subtropical climates are called subtropical because they have the influence of moisture in summer, like in Southern Texas, Southern Louisiana, Northern Floridas, the Bermuda: those are subtropical climates, Rome is absolutely different.It has NOTHING (i repeat ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with subtropical climates which have the influences of the both the tropical rainy season in summer and the warm temperate rains in winter).
Examples of subtropical climates in different areas: Orlando, New Orleans, Houston, Guangzhou, Taipei, Brisbane (not Perth on the other coast with dry summers and rainy winters which is like California WARM TEMPERATE OCEANIC and like Moroccoan coast) , Durban, Florianopolis , Islamabad ,etc....

Yeah, in looking at it again, it was February, 2012. It's getting too late at night to see straight. :-) Rome, according to Koppen, has it as a hot summer Mediterranean climate somewhat similar to Los Angeles. The difference is the frequency of cold weather and winter snow. I'm not familiar enough with climate classification to really know all the nuances, but it seems like both Rome and Los Angeles are generally classified as a hot summer Mediterranean climate.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY TWO (04U)
2:43 PM WST December 29 2014
=====================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category Two (981 hPa) located at 14.7S 91.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 15.6S 91.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 16.9S 90.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 19.6S 87.1E- 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 21.5S 83.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================
Wrap of 1.2 obtained on visible images over the last few hours giving a DT of 4.0. Trend is assessed as D- or S which yields a MET of 5.0 or 4.5. These are adjusted down to 4.0 with the PAT and FT is set at 4.0. Final intensity is set at 60 knots [10-min] in good agreement with SATCON.

Model guidance is consistent in forecasting a steady southwest movement with a steady or slowly weakening trend for the next 24 hours. The environment then becomes unfavorable with increasing vertical wind shear, dry air entraining from the south and cooler sea surface temperatures likely to cause more rapid weakening.

Wind structure is expected to become more asymetric and gales are forecast to extend further south from the weakening cyclone due to a strong pressure gradient to the south.
This is utterly amazing. This could be the first year in recorded history that Anchorage Alaska has not seen a day below zero.

http://www.adn.com/article/20141228/2014-may-be-f irst-year-ever-no-below-zero-temps-anchorage

Link
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST December 29 2014
==============================

The well marked low pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka coast now lies over southwest Bay of Bengal off northern Sri Lanka-Tamil Nadu coasts. The system could concentrate into a depression during the next 24 hours.

According to Dvorak classification, intensity of the system is T1.0 with center located near 9.4N 82.5E. 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots gusting to 30 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1006 hPa.

Remarks
========
24 hrs satellite animations indicates that convective cloud structure remains scattered with major convection lying to the north of low level cyclonic circulation and another near the center. The lowest cloud top temperature is -60C. There is no organization in the convective cloud mass. A buoy located at 13.5N 84.0E reported mean sea level pressure 1010.3hpa and wind of 100o/17.5 knots. The surface winds along east coast of Sri Lanka is 5-15 kts. Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) reported mean sea level pressure of 1007.9 hpa and surface winds of 330/05kts. There is no significant change in mean sea level pressure during past 24 hrs along east coast of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coast.

Considering the environmental features, the lower level convergence as well as vorticity remained same during past 24 hrs and the upper level divergence has increased slightly during past 24 hrs. The area of convergence is elongated from southwest to northeast. There are two divergence maxima one to the southwest and another to the northeast of low level circulation center. Vorticity maxima lies to the southeast of low level circulation center. The region of convergence, divergence and vorticity are lying closer to each other compared to yesterday. Latest ASCAT observation indicates stronger winds to the north. Sea surface temperature is 28C and gradually decreases towards north. The ocean thermal energy is 60-80 kj/cm2 to the south of low level circulation center and 1, which is favorable for intensification of the system. Most of the numerical weather prediction models do not suggest intensification of the system. They suggest northward movement during next 72 hrs.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Good Space Station view AL and FL this evening, ~6:27 PM
Well, I went out and looked. I had an excellent view of some bottom lit stratus nebulosus, but no space station. Dang!
Quoting sar2401:
Well, I went out and looked. I had an excellent view of some bottom lit stratus nebulosus, but no space station. Dang!


You have my luck with the Auroras.. Cloud cover..
www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCR_NR3OTQw&feature=youtu.b e

How i said yesterday, i will post a few videos of Hiltrud hitting S-E of Romania. Luckily...or not...we are at the edge of the storm.
Quoting Dakster:


You have my luck with the Auroras.. Cloud cover..
Hey, Dak, I'm glad to hear I'm not the only one here with that luck. We had beautiful blue skies until Christmas Evening when the storms moved in. After the original 3.96", we've only had an additional 0.56" but nothing but low clouds. Strange temperature regime though, with a high of 71 today and no sun at all. Probably a good thing though, since a little more instability and we could have gotten some pretty hefty storms. I got a new keyboard and mouse for Christmas since I wore the other one out (what a surprise, huh?). This is a nice top of the line Logitech my fiance got for me for Christmas. The pattern of the keys is just slightly different than my former Microsoft model and it's driving me nuts. The key locations and space bar are just different enough that I have to constantly check my typing to correct my errors. I've had to go back and fix probably 10 things on just this one paragraph alone. I'm sure I'll grow used to it with time but I really hate typing mistakes. Believe me, if I didn't take the time to correct the errors, the whole thing would have looked like gibberish.

So, what did Santa bring you for Christmas? If figure that, since you're closer to the North Pole than the rest of us, you should have gotten cooler presents. :-)
Quoting 55. TimTheWxMan:



Vegas might be getting a little snow wednesday. In case you haven't noticed, I'm a warm weather person, although i do like cool mornings and nights when i go on a bike ride or walk my dog. Guess most people on this blog are wishing for snow in miami. How did that aerosmith song go? Oh yeah: Dream onnnnn, dream onnnnn, dream onnnnn, dream onnnn.


Oh wow...I see a whole buncha folks who are living in the wrong part of the Country, then! I moved to South Florida so that I could successfully do tropical gardening -- not do tropical gardening while simultaneously wishing for it to turn cold! You guys need to take that wishcasting up to D.C. or somewhere where it won't wreck the landscape! For myself, if we go through the remainder of winter on a string of 80-degree days, I and all my "babies" will be delighted!
What is the difference between skin temp



and 2 meter temp?

Quoting sar2401:
Hey, Dak, I'm glad to hear I'm not the only one here with that luck. We had beautiful blue skies until Christmas Evening when the storms moved in. After the original 3.96", we've only had an additional 0.56" but nothing but low clouds. Strange temperature regime though, with a high of 71 today and no sun at all. Probably a good thing though, since a little more instability and we could have gotten some pretty hefty storms. I got a new keyboard and mouse for Christmas since I wore the other one out (what a surprise, huh?). This is a nice top of the line Logitech my fiance got for me for Christmas. The pattern of the keys is just slightly different than my former Microsoft model and it's driving me nuts. The key locations and space bar are just different enough that I have to constantly check my typing to correct my errors. I've had to go back and fix probably 10 things on just this one paragraph alone. I'm sure I'll grow used to it with time but I really hate typing mistakes. Believe me, if I didn't take the time to correct the errors, the whole thing would have looked like gibberish.

So, what did Santa bring you for Christmas? If figure that, since you're closer to the North Pole than the rest of us, you should have gotten cooler presents. :-)


I type on so many different keyboards I know what you mean all too well.

Santa brought me cash and an extended warranty for my truck. I need a new cell phone and he knew I had not decided on which one I wanted. ;)

The weather has been interesting for sure.
Quoting 77. DonnieBwkGA:

What is the difference between skin temp



and 2 meter temp?


I assume, but don't take my word for it, skin temperatures mean the actual ground temperatures and 2 meter temperatures mean... 2 meters above the ground temperatures ;)... That's my take on it .
Quoting 74. matara28:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCR_NR3OTQw&feature=youtu. b e

How i said yesterday, i will post a few videos of Hiltrud hitting S-E of Romania. Luckily...or not...we are at the edge of the storm.


Wow, serious winter weather! Thanks for the video report; stay safe and warm!

Meanwhile bad news from the ongoing drama in the Mediterranean:



Italy ferry fire: Five people reported dead
29 December 2014 Last updated at 11:41 GMT
Five people have died and 110 are still awaiting rescue after a blaze on an Italian ferry off the Greek island of Corfu, Greek officials say.
One man is known to have died trying to escape the ship, and a further four bodies have been recovered from the sea.
Helicopter crews have been winching people to safety despite gale-force winds and thick smoke.
The Italian navy said that 363 of the 478 people on board had been evacuated. ...


GFS temperature forecast for Europe for tomorrow morning (Celsius): Very cold in southern and eastern Europe, while western and central parts of Germany are already about to be cleared from frost:



Spanish ski resorts close amid high winds
The Local (Spain), Published: 29 Dec 2014 10:55 GMT 01:00
Just as snow finally arrives, several Spanish ski resorts have had to close their pistes because of poor weather conditions. Many other provinces across Spain are also on high alert because of freezing temperatures.
Formigal, in the Aragon pyrenees of northeastern Spain, has closed a number a pistes due to the bad weather conditions, opening only 19 of its 97 pistes, while the nearby Panticosa resort has closed entirely.
Up to 40cm of snow fell across some areas of the Spanish Pyrenees on Sunday, but strong winds are forecast across the mountains on Monday according to the Heraldo de Aragon newspaper.
The Spanish state meteorological agency, Aemet, has issued a 'yellow alert' warning of winds reaching up to 90 kilometres per hour (56 miles per hour).
Temperatures are also falling across the country, with Aemet putting 24 Spanish provinces on alert for low temperatures, with nighttime temperatures as low as -6C expected in Soria, Avila and Leon. ...
It doesn't look like the cold weather will be making it down here. Also, today will make 33 days with only .05" of rain here.
Quoting 82. Sfloridacat5:

It doesn't look like the cold weather will be making it down here. Also, today will make 33 days with only .05" of rain here.



Very warm and muggy here in Tampa. The mornings are cool, but when the heat of the day kicks in, it feels more like late April than December. Seems like we're stuck in a southerly wind flow pattern that's bring in the high dew points.


7 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area.
Quoting 80. barbamz:



Very cold in southern and eastern Europe, while western and central parts of Germany are already about to be cleared from frost



Two nights of thick frost covering all ground surfaces has been the extent of the cold snap here. Northern England received a couple of inches of snow, which caused the usual breakdown of society in the UK when anything that resembles winter arrives...



Quoting 82. Sfloridacat5:

It doesn't look like the cold weather will be making it down here. Also, today will make 33 days with only .05" of rain here.



Geesh that's crazy! 2.01" for December here in Longwood. Things still very wet here mainly from the 10" back in November.
Quoting 83. tampabaymatt:



Very warm and muggy here in Tampa. The mornings are cool, but when the heat of the day kicks in, it feels more like late April than December. Seems like we're stuck in a southerly wind flow pattern that's bring in the high dew points.


Cool mornings? it was 70 for a low yesterday and only got down to 66 last night these are close to average highs! Average low is 50.

Some of the Oaks around here are now in bloom as well. It's funny because as soon as it started getting hot all the leaves seem to be dropping at once as new ones are coming in.

This is Clearwater here but over in New Smyrna Beach the beach has been packed all weekend and infact so packed that Volusia County officials had to call in off duty lifeguards to help with the crowds.



Quoting 53. HurrMichaelOrl:


Agreed. While my horticultural interest has led me to landscape my entire yard as if I was in Miami (I'm actually just north of Orlando) this warm muggy weather is just a drag. We had had just enough chilly weather for some nice fall colors to show here. As this warm weather has persisted, the color change has stopped and the deciduous trees have just dropped the remaining leaves. There is something to be said for four seasons and a nice snowfall occasionally. The climate in the DC area was nice when I lived there.


My Oaks are dropping its leaves all at once now and I'm even noticing lots of pollen around my house as there is a green film now on everything. Just in the last week actually this started happening.
Quoting 89. StormTrackerScott:



Cool mornings? it was 70 for a low yesterday and only got down to 66 last night these are close to average highs! Average low is 50.

Some of the Oaks around here are now in bloom as well. It's funny because as soon as it started getting hot all the leaves seem to be dropping at once as new ones are coming in.




My location dropped to 62 degrees this morning. While that is higher than average for this time of year, I would classify that as cool.
NBC Meteorologist on the Today Show called the area near the Equator with active weather year round "The Inter-Continental Convergence Zone."

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This is Clearwater here but over in New Smyrna Beach the beach has been packed all weekend and infact so packed that Volusia County officials had to call in off duty lifeguards to help with the crowds.





Yeah, the warm beautiful weather had the beaches packed. Over the weekend, the local news was showing the bumper to bumper traffic (basically stopped) crossing the bridge going out to Fort Myers Beach.
Quoting 85. westscotweather:
Two nights of thick frost covering all ground surfaces has been the extent of the cold snap here. Northern England received a couple of inches of snow, which caused the usual breakdown of society in the UK when anything that resembles winter arrives...


Hehe, same here (though the chaos wasn't that bad, probably due to the weekend combined with holidays). Looking at the current forecast for my place Mainz (below in Celsius), I guess I will relocate the blossoming plants back outside to the balcony and await spring from next week on ;-)



At least I got my snow photos yesterday :-)


View from the citadel in Mainz towards the cathedral yesterday morning.
Accumulating freezing rain in the NAM across portions of TX for New Years Day. Many folks prefer the NAM over the GFS if your dealing with a shallow surface/near-surface sub-freezing layer of CAA of arctic origin. SW flow aloft keeps the column too warm for snow down towards the Hill Country.

Quoting 66. sar2401:

OK, here's a tip from someone who used to be local. Go to the Ramparts Casino in Summerlin. Nice laid back place and just about the only ones that play there are locals and they aren't pushy. Great odds on video poker, and they are one of the few casinos left in Vegas that deal blackjack from a single deck and stand on all 17's. Make your way to the sports book and ask if they are starting to take bets on the snow. Up until 2005, when I moved, they were, and it's kind of a fun thing for the locals. This will only cost you $20.

Check the weather synopsis, but don't do it from your phone where you can be seen by the guys at the sports book. They may refuse your bet because they thing you're a pro. Stay real low key and do a lot of head scratching. I don't know what they're charging for proposition bets now but it used to be a buck. Bet a buck on nothing measurable after checking the odds. Depending on how excited the other players are (they'll mostly be housewives), you might get 15 or even 20 to 1 on no accumulations. If the prop isn't high enough, bump the bet to $2 so you get your $20 back if the forecast blows.

Now you're going to be the most likely outcome. Check people's Facebook posts to see what your competition thinks. If everyone else thinks five inches, bet $10 on four inches and maybe two dollars on five inches, or bet the big one on the five inches if you really think that's going to happen.

Bet the rest on a buck for 6 inches, 7 inches, and so on until you're out of money. Get a drink and nurse it all night but don't get drunk. Casinos like to see players that act drunk, so practice acing tipsy. Being young is a big help since they assume you're an idiot, but be prepared to show your ID to every new guard that comes on duty.

With $20 split up, you could win maybe $120 if you hit it right in the head. They should also have an over and under bet on the official NWS forecast, and that's fun to play without losing your shirt. The official measuring spot should be some roped off area of the parking lot, so check that out and make sure there's not some local condition, like wind or a divot in the lot surface that might be for or against you.

It's kind of fun to do this kind of betting, especially since your're young and this isn't just pure chance. I only expect half the winnings if you do well. If you lose it all, well, that's just because you made an error in the system. :-)



Interesting.... betting on snowfall. However, i meant to say that I want to go to a casino in St. Louis and not Vegas. Maybe up the ante a bit and bet money on the hurricane season, winner-take-all.
good morning.......34 wunderful degrees this morning here in el paso.....warming to mid 50's and the cold front is expected to make its way to us tomorrow.....precip chances are weds through fri......and depending how much of the cold mass stays with us....there could be a chance of snow....we're rooting for a white new years
Well, apart from the five death people, this is good to read:

Italy ferry: All passengers evacuated after fatal fire
BBC News, 29 December 2014 Last updated at 14:25 GMT
Congratulations to the SAR folks.


Pope Francis Expected To Instruct One Billion Catholics To Act On Climate Change
BY RYAN KORONOWSKI


At the end of 2015, the nations of the world will meet in Paris and attempt to hammer out a global deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions. And Pope Francis hopes that the world’s Catholics, as well as other major religions, will be a big part of serious climate action.

This includes a series of steps next year. Francis is expected to tell the planet’s 1.2 billion Catholics why acting on climate change is essential to the faith using an influential church document called an encyclical. This has been long-rumored, but will reportedly be released to the world’s 5,000 bishops and 400,000 priests following a papal visit to the hurricane-damaged city of Tacloban in the Philippines.

In September, the Pope will take his message to the U.N. General Assembly in a New York address next year, according to John Vidal of the Guardian, who cited Vatican insiders. He will reportedly personally lobby political and faith leaders there, with the goal of pushing them to commit to real action ahead of the Paris meetings in December of next year.

While it isn’t certain what exactly he will tell these leaders, it will likely be similar to what he has been telling Catholics everywhere since the beginning of his papacy. Earlier this year, Francis told a massive crowd in Rome, “if we destroy Creation, Creation will destroy us!” He has called
the destruction of the rainforest a “sin,” and under his leadership, the Church held a five-day summit with scientists, economists, philosophers, astronomers, and other experts to explore ways the Catholic church could address climate and sustainability.

Earlier this month during the climate talks in Lima, Catholic bishops from every continent called for “an end to the fossil fuel era.” This follows, they said, the need to prioritize “the immediate needs of the most vulnerable communities.” Addressing the causes and effects of climate change is a moral and social justice issue for them, as the impacts of a changing climate will disproportionately affect those who can least-ably adapt (and who did not emit most of the pollution in the first place).

Francis’ close friend, Argentinian Bishop Marcelo Sánchez Sorondo is the Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and Social Sciences. He said in an annual lecture to the British Catholic group Cafod last month: “today solid scientific evidence exists that global climate is changing and that human activity based on the use of fossil materials contributes decisively to this trend.”

Soronado cited Francis’ “unique role as a religious leader,” and the need for moral guidance to ensure the natural world is developed in a sustainable and socially inclusive way. “The problem of climate change has become a major social and moral problem, and mentalities can only be changed on moral and religious grounds,” he said.

Therefore, our Academics supported the Pope’s initiative to publish an Encyclical or another such important document on climate and social inclusion to influence next year’s crucial decisions. In fact, the idea is to convene a meeting with the religious leaders of the main religions to make all people aware of the state of our climate and the tragedy of social exclusion starting from the biblical message that man is the steward of nature and of its environmental and human development according to its potential and not against it, as Paul IV intended.

The details surrounding this climate meeting with the world’s religious leaders are currently unclear, but Francis will likely find some parts of his audience willing and amenable to strong climate action. Earlier this year, a group of evangelical Christians urged President Obama to discuss climate change with the Pope at the Vatican, while another told Florida Governor Rick Scott that climate change was a “pro-life” issue. Leaders from several different religions encouraged the EPA to regulate carbon dioxide from power plants at the agency’s public hearings in July, with some saying carbon pollution is “an affront to God.”

On the other hand, a strong majority of white evangelicals in the U.S. believe that worsening natural disasters are a sign of the apocalypse, not climate change, and other conservative evangelical sects will likely oppose Francis’ efforts.

“The pope should back off,” said Calvin Beisner, spokesman for the conservative evangelical Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation. “The Catholic church is correct on the ethical principles but has been misled on the science. It follows that the policies the Vatican is promoting are incorrect. Our position reflects the views of millions of evangelical Christians in the US.”
Good Morning from Tallahassee.  Still waiting for Winter here at the moment after the Polar Vortex ripple effect from the typhoon several weeks ago brought the temps down around the end of November for a week.  The Wife is very sensitive to pollen and she has been having some sneezing the last few days; normally does not happen until the Spring.  I know the cold is finally on the way but this reminds me of "Winter" in South Florida with highs around 70 in North Florida the last several days (at the end of December).  Our coldest month in these parts is usually February so we have about 8-9 weeks of real Winter left before turning the bend in March but the trees and animals are having a tough time figuring out what season it is at the moment.   
2014, The Year the Globe awakened to the seriousness of our AGW predicament.

Fantastic'

Now what?
The pope should back off,” said Calvin Beisner, spokesman for the conservative evangelical Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation. “The Catholic church is correct on the ethical principles but has been misled on the science. It follows that the policies the Vatican is promoting are incorrect. Our position reflects the views of millions of evangelical Christians in the US.”

Well, yeah.
CPC has issued their weekly ENSO update....3.4 region anomaly now at 0.7C
Quoting 101. Patrap:


Pope Francis Expected To Instruct One Billion Catholics To Act On Climate Change
BY RYAN KORONOWSKI


Lol, already 3213 comments on these news at the Guardian website, refering to a text which may be published in March 2015:

Pope Francis’s edict on climate change will anger deniers and US churches
Pontiff hopes to inspire action at next year’s UN meeting in Paris in December after visits to Philippines and New York
John Vidal, The Observer, Saturday 27 December 2014 21.06 GMT
average SOI value for the past 30 days is -7.6......seems to be slipping the wrong way once again

Jangmi (Seniang) hitting the Philippines.

Seniang makes second landfall over Bohol
December 29, 2014 10:17pm
Our position reflects the views of millions of evangelical Christians in the US.

So, in other werds, "our ignorance is equal to the established Science"

Let see how dat plays out the next 20 years.

I'm up for 10K wager.
Our position reflects the views of millions of evangelical Christians in the US.

So, in other werds, "our ignorance is equal to the established Science"

Let see how dat plays out the next 20 years.

I'm up for 10K wager.



that caught my eye too...i wonder if their theology is based on the same process or if they might use the counsel of learned experts
I'm no expert at all of this sort of patterns, but look how tropical moisture is driven to the east in the Indian Ocean with Kate in the southern hemisphere and 95B in the Bay of Bengal, and in the WPac the flow goes west with Jangmi in the Philippines. And all this moisture collides over Southeast Asia. No wonder that there is a lot of unusual flooding f.e. in Malaysia!


Click to enlarge.

Malaysia flooding: PM Najib Razak pledges extra funds
BBC, 28 December 2014 Last updated at 06:21 GMT
As a Catholic/Christian myself, I am usually wary of nice big churches where most of the parishioners, and some of the men and women of the cloth, drive big shinny cars and the parking lots on Sunday look like a new car lot. With that being said, the best example that some of the bigger churches (regardless of denomination) with the funds to do so could do is to use some of the funds to install solar panels on the churches...............That would really catch my attention.
Our position reflects the views of millions of evangelical Christians in the US.

you mean the ones that wear fancy clothes on a certain day of the week to go to a building and hurry thru a man-made service so they can get out and go watch football?
(breaks "+" key on post 112)
Quoting pottery:
The pope should back off,” said Calvin Beisner, spokesman for the conservative evangelical Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation. “The Catholic church is correct on the ethical principles but has been misled on the science. It follows that the policies the Vatican is promoting are incorrect. Our position reflects the views of millions of evangelical Christians in the US.”

Well, yeah.
The "Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation" is a Koch-funded group that "...promotes a free-market approach to care for the environment." Because, you know, the free-market has shown such profound appreciation for "Creation" and deep respect for the environment. Why, deep water oil spills, chronic air pollution, mountaintop removal mining, and clear cutting old growth forest are just some of the many examples of the free market demonstrating its remarkable stewardship of the environment.

Delusional, misguided folks they are indeed...
Oh look it's cloudy again outside -_-.Anyway we're taking dad to the county buffet for his 75th birthday and I'm at least hoping any useless rain holds off until we get to our destination.

EDIT.Some flakes how about that?.
Quoting 104. pottery:

The pope should back off,%u201D said Calvin Beisner, spokesman for the conservative evangelical Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation. %u201CThe Catholic church is correct on the ethical principles but has been misled on the science. It follows that the policies the Vatican is promoting are incorrect. Our position reflects the views of millions of evangelical Christians in the US.%u201D

Well, yeah.


Sadly there are many Catholics also who pick and choose what to believe and when scripture or papal revelation conflicts with how they want the world to be or how they want to live, they reject it in favor of the false god (Mammon most commonly ) they prefer to follow. There are a number of these at high rank in the U.S Catholic hierarchy. I accept that they are men, flawed, and wrong!

One of higher rank in Europe is clearly telling us what to do.

And it is relevant to the mission of this blog and site since it pertains to AGW.

.. edited. I should also make clear I believe there is far more right than wrong with my faith and I am a practising Catholic.
Hahahahaha
Quoting 116. washingtonian115:

Oh look it's cloudy again outside -_-.Anyway we're taking dad to the county buffet for his 75th birthday and I'm at least hoping any useless rain holds off until we get to our destination.

EDIT.Some flakes how about that?.


Only a few flakes or a dusting which will melt. But several days of cold are coming and after an easy December I will be back to protecting my citrus and winter garden.
Italy ferry: Death toll rises to seven as evacuation ends
BBC News with video, 29 December 2014 Last updated at 15:12 GMT
Quoting 119. georgevandenberghe:



Only a few flakes or a dusting which will melt. But several days of cold are coming and after an easy December I will be back to protecting my citrus and winter garden.


where is this winter garden of which you speak? I thought I was the only one around here with a winter garden, and winter garden blog.
wow!
Quoting ricderr:
CPC has issued their weekly ENSO update....3.4 region anomaly now at 0.7C


When is El Nino coming? I thought it was supposed to be here in May, then June, July, August, Sept, October, November and heck December is over on Thursday lol. So much for those long term forecasts, absolutely no accuracy!
The Vatican and science have gone hand and hand for hundreds and hundreds of years. Oh wait a minute
And on a more optimistic note, Catholic Relief Services, and many of the other large Christian churches and religious organizations, have a great impact following natural disasters around the world and they often go to great lengths to help provide shelter, food, and other donated funds and items in the wake of these disasters. We will continue to need the Churches in the future for continued aid to peoples in the world who may have crop failures related to weather issues or other weather related disasters (refugee camps come to mind and we may have more weather related mass migrations in the future across nation state lines)...............The more folks we get on the same page the better for the future regardless of your personal beliefs.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh look it's cloudy again outside -_-.Anyway we're taking dad to the county buffet for his 75th birthday and I'm at least hoping any useless rain holds off until we get to our destination.

EDIT.Some flakes how about that?.


well then since you think the rain us used less then give it too CA where we still need it
Quoting 112. weathermanwannabe:

As a Catholic/Christian myself, I am usually wary of nice big churches where most of the parishioners, and some of the men and women of the cloth, drive big shinny cars and the parking lots on Sunday look like a new car lot. With that being said, the best example that some of the bigger churches (regardless of denomination) with the funds to do so could do is to use some of the funds to install solar panels on the churches...............That would really catch my attention.




Gee, google is every main bloggers friend seem's,eh?


....well, not all seems.

: )


Maybe note da date too's




Vatican installs huge solar panel energy system

26 November 2008

The Vatican, the world's smallest sovereign state, has stepped up its fight against global warming by installing a huge rooftop solar energy system.


More than 2,000 photovoltaic panels have been fixed to the roof of one of the city state's main buildings, enabling the Holy See to cut its carbon dioxide emissions by about 225 tonnes a year, saving the equivalent of 80 tonnes of oil annually.
Looming over them is the imposing bulk of St Peter's Basilica, but the panels will not be visible from ground level, leaving the Vatican's impressive skyline unblemished.

The solar energy system covers the massive roof of the "Nervi Hall", where Pope Benedict XVI holds general audiences.
The 2,400 panels, designed by a Germany company, will heat, light and cool the hall and several surrounding buildings, producing 300 kilowatt hours (MWh) of clean energy a year.
The hall, built in 1971 and one of the Vatican's newest buildings, has a sweeping, wave-shaped roof which made the project feasible.

The Vatican's official mouthpiece, the daily newspaper L'Osservatore Romano, said in an editorial that "the gradual exhaustion of the ozone layer and the greenhouse effect have reached critical dimensions."

Pope Benedict, like his predecessor John Paul II, has made several appeals for greater efforts to protect the environment.
Last year the Holy See announced that it would become the world's first carbon-neutral state by planting trees in a national park in Hungary in order to offset its carbon-dioxide emissions.

This latest initiative puts the Vatican at odds with Italy. The Italian government said this week that it would veto new European Union limits on greenhouse gas emissions unless it won concessions.
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said a plan proposed by France's President, Nicolas Sarkozy, to cut emissions by 20 per cent by 2020, was unrealistic.

Italy's greenhouse gas emissions are around 13 per cent above 1990 levels %u2013 one of the worst performances in the EU.
Analysts believe that Italy may be dragging its heels in order to secure a better deal for its industry and that the government would not dare risk the stigma of sabotaging the EU's self-declared role as the world leader in tackling climate change.


Interesting, no doubt

Quoting 30. JohnLonergan:

Blog network analysis: WUWT & Co. isolated from science

Paige Brown Jarreau performed a survey among science bloggers. A first result is the fascinating network analysis of science blogs shown above. She also published a PDF where you can zoom in to look at the details. The survey asked every blogger to list three other regularly read science blogs. In the figure above the blogs are the dots and every mention is a link between the dots. The more incoming links, the bigger the dot and name. The links do no show in which direction the link runs. The smallest print is for blogs that participated, but have no incoming links.

Clearly dominating is the blog Not Exactly Rocket Science by Ed Young. Also influential is Bad Astronomy by Phil Plait, who also blogs about climate and the "climate debate". Except for these two outliers, the network is surprisingly egalitarian.

There is likely a sampling bias, but the small number of non-english blogs is striking.

For us the climatic part of the blog universe is naturally most interesting.



Click image to enlarge
...Emphasized by the automatic coloring scheme is the splendid yellow isolation of WUWT & Co. If there would be no link between WUWT and the Climate Lab Book, they would have no link to science whatsoever. This network analysis could be used to determine who is eligible for a bloggie in the category science.


More at Variable Variability ...

Meanwhile, The Stoat gloats:


...that "Stoat" is in bigger letters than just about anyone else other than RealClimate (well, duh) and ATTP (gnashes teeth).

Actually, that's not the story. The funny bit is the "yellow ghetto" featuring the anti-science folks: WUWT, BH, and Climate Etc, tee hee. La Curry is not amused, as you'd really rather hope.

Quoting 126. Tazmanian:



well then since you think the rain us used less then give it too CA where we still need it
I have to see if USPS will let me ship it :).
Quoting 121. aquak9:



where is this winter garden of which you speak? I thought I was the only one around here with a winter garden, and winter garden blog.


In College Park Md. Rental garden but rules changed in 2011 allowing us to use the plots in winter so I'm
starting to work on winter gardening techniques. I have dogs and shade at home so can't do much there.
NWS New Orleans disco

Short term...

cold front has finally pushed offshore and is slowly progressing
eastward. A band of light to moderate ran has developed across
Plaquemines Parish...extending northeastward towards the Alabama
coast. The hrrr shows this activity hanging around for a couple more
hours before shifting offshore. This coincides well with latest
water vapor imagery which indicates that drier middle level air should
be arriving at about that same time. Isolated showers could linger
for a few hours in the morning along coastal areas. Otherwise...it
does appear low low level stratus deck will hang around all day and
tonight as well. Have made adjustments to the zones for that. In
addition...have kept highs a couple degrees cooler than mav guidance
to account for less than expected insolation.

An upper level trough dropping out of Canada early this week will
send a secondary surge of colder air to the area Tuesday. Strong
cold air advection will persist for at least a couple days. This
will drop temperatures to about 10 degrees below normal Wednesday and
Thursday. Could see freeze temperatures for lows Thursday morning.

Long term...

models still showing an upper level low closing off over the Desert
Southwest middle week and tracking eastward across the Central Plains
this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are expected locally ahead
of this feature as moisture increases across the area. Have bumped
up probability of precipitation to 60 percent on Friday and 60-70 percent for Saturday.
Instability looks to be developing Saturday as low levels warm and
middle/upper level cooling takes place. A few marginally strong to
severe storms could develop but thats still several days out at this
time to know with any degree of certainty. Upper/surface low placement
among other things could change quite a bit between now and then.
Just wanted to mention the possibility.

Meffer
i guess this is black monday here!
Quoting 112. weathermanwannabe:

As a Catholic/Christian myself, I am usually wary of nice big churches where most of the parishioners, and some of the men and women of the cloth, drive big shinny cars and the parking lots on Sunday look like a new car lot. With that being said, the best example that some of the bigger churches (regardless of denomination) with the funds to do so could do is to use some of the funds to install solar panels on the churches...............That would really catch my attention.


They could also do a great deal more to share their fortune with those less fortunate. In many ways!!
Quoting 123. WxGuy2014:



When is El Nino coming? I thought it was supposed to be here in May, then June, July, August, Sept, October, November and heck December is over on Thursday lol. So much for those long term forecasts, absolutely no accuracy!
I don't know why anyone ever thought they had any.
135. MahFL
Quoting 125. weathermanwannabe:

And on a more optimistic note, Catholic Relief Services, and many of the other large Christian churches and religious organizations, have a great impact following natural disasters..."


If they promoted birth control then the disasters would be somewhat smaller...
you got to be kidding about 40 hrs since the plane lost communication nothing

Quoting 135. MahFL:



If they promoted birth control then the disasters would be somewhat smaller...
This is going to spark a debate, followed by people whining that this is a weather blog not a religion blog, followed by me laughing at everyone involved, then probably getting involved in the debate myself, then eventually getting bored and going to sleep.
Quoting 106. barbamz:



Lol, already 3213 comments on these news at the Guardian website, refering to a text which may be published in March 2015:

Pope Francis’s edict on climate change will anger deniers and US churches
Pontiff hopes to inspire action at next year’s UN meeting in Paris in December after visits to Philippines and New York
John Vidal, The Observer, Saturday 27 December 2014 21.06 GMT


I saw this over the weekend, and I swear my blood pressure must have spiked when I read this in the article:

"Francis will also be opposed by the powerful US evangelical movement, said Calvin Beisner, spokesman for the conservative Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation, which has declared the US environmental movement to be “un-biblical” and a false religion."

Why is wanting clean air, clean water, clean soils and safe food 'un-biblical and a false religion'? Perhaps they want a world that looks like China - where all media (air, water, soil and food) show widespread contamination? The attacks on 'environmentalists' have gotten ridiculous.


Quoting 121. aquak9:



where is this winter garden of which you speak? I thought I was the only one around here with a winter garden, and winter garden blog.


Every time I read a post about people's winter gardens I feel like such a slacker. I complain about winter produce in the stores, yet I have the obvious solution at hand. And living in South Louisiana, I really have no excuse...



what up with all this snow next week
Getting back to the weather (on my part) that plane disaster is another tragedy and it reminds me of the French plane that left Brazil some years ago and apparently hit some severe storms in the ITCZ. Pilots will try to navigate through t-storms with their on-board radar if they encounter it on the way up or down on a re-route around the weather. However, if a lightning strike causes an electrical failure which brings down the weather radar, then they are flying blind into the severe weather.

Quoting 141. weathermanwannabe:

Getting back to the weather (on my part) that plane disaster is another tragedy and it reminds me of the French plane that left Brazil some years ago and apparently hit some severe storms in the ITCZ. Pilots will try to navigate through t-storms with their on-board radar if they encounter it on the way up or down on a re-route around the weather. However, if a lightening strike causes an electrical failure which brings down the weather radar, then they are flying blind into the severe weather.
Lightning*

Meteorology 101, dawg.

With love, Kori the sarcastic sob.

;)
Quoting 103. Patrap:

2014, The Year the Globe awakened to the seriousness of our AGW predicament.

Fantastic'

Now what?

Good question. Two problems come to mind. First, it's clear that the denialist camp is driven by ideology, not science, and that obviously makes them pretty impervious to scientific arguments. Second, we live immersed in a culture that regards Mother Nature as a bit player, at most. How many people do you know personally that can get their heads around the fact that nature holds all the trumps and is starting to play them? How many people in the media, tv, print, whatever, are able to understand this? In short, I feel it will not be understood until nature crams it down our collective throats. Given the fact that seeing nature as the star of the show is incomprehensible to most, the great awakening will not happen before much unpleasantness has occurred
Blizzard "Hiltrud" on its way over the western region of the Black Sea (saved airmass loop; refresh the page to get it started):



Forecast surface map for today:



Forecast of surface winds this noon with the center of the storm over Odessa:


Romania:



Odessa, Southern Ukraine (uploaded today but without specific data reference):



Best wishes for all who were or will be in Hiltrud's path (I know some nice people in Odessa; hope they are safe)! Right now it's still hard to get any readable news about the impacts.
I came up to lebanon, Pennsylvania to see snow with my girlfriend. We leave January 5th at 8pm. I will be so upset if all the snow comes the day after we leave. So far nothing up here yet
Quoting 123. WxGuy2014:



When is El Nino coming? I thought it was supposed to be here in May, then June, July, August, Sept, October, November and heck December is over on Thursday lol. So much for those long term forecasts, absolutely no accuracy!
El NIno will occur at least once in the next 100 years.... should be a correct forecast ;)
Quoting 118. washingtonian115:

Hahahahaha

The models that cried "SNOW!!!"
Quoting 142. KoritheMan:


Lightning*

Meteorology 101, dawg.

With love, Kori the sarcastic sob.

;)



How much snow do you think Vegas will get Kori? Yes... Vegas may get snow. It rarely falls below 2000 ft. there. I'm guessing exactly 2 inches. Sar said people in Vegas actually bet on the snowfall amount. Either that or it was SARcasm. Ba dum tssss.
Quoting 141. weathermanwannabe:

Getting back to the weather (on my part) that plane disaster is another tragedy and it reminds me of the French plane that left Brazil some years ago and apparently hit some severe storms in the ITCZ. Pilots will try to navigate through t-storms with their on-board radar if they encounter it on the way up or down on a re-route around the weather. However, if a lightning strike causes an electrical failure which brings down the weather radar, then they are flying blind into the severe weather.


The Last transmission was a request to climb to a Higher Flt Level altitude......Due to weather en route.




Air France AF 477 comes to mind






Quoting 123. WxGuy2014:



When is El Nino coming? I thought it was supposed to be here in May, then June, July, August, Sept, October, November and heck December is over on Thursday lol. So much for those long term forecasts, absolutely no accuracy!


It might, it might not, who knows.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Getting back to the weather (on my part) that plane disaster is another tragedy and it reminds me of the French plane that left Brazil some years ago and apparently hit some severe storms in the ITCZ. Pilots will try to navigate through t-storms with their on-board radar if they encounter it on the way up or down on a re-route around the weather. However, if a lightning strike causes an electrical failure which brings down the weather radar, then they are flying blind into the severe weather.


I mentioned it in an earlier comment, but this morning on the Today show while discussing the plane crash, they were calling the ITCZ "The Inter-Continental Convergence Zone."

I was like what? ICCZ?
Quoting 93. tampabaymatt:



My location dropped to 62 degrees this morning. While that is higher than average for this time of year, I would classify that as cool.


No forecast of 7" of rain this week? No warnings to be aware of? What is going on here?
What IS known is that 2014 will go down as the Warmest Year recorded Globally...

and what is even more remarkable, is that it was done without a Strong El Nino signal.

I wunder why?



Quoting 148. TimTheWxMan:



How much snow do you think Vegas will get Kori?
2-3 inches, probably closer to 2.
Quoting 148. TimTheWxMan:


 Either that or it was SARcasm. Ba dum tssss.
Your humor is almost as bad as mine.

Quoting 153. Patrap:

What IS known is that 2014 will go down as the Warmest Year recorded Globally...

and what is even more remarkable, is that it was done without a Strong El Nino signal.

I wunder why?



Gremlins.
Quoting 155. KoritheMan:


Gremlins.



I was gonna with a Gore-ism, but yer's is much mo tabasco like def.
Quoting LAbonbon:


I saw this over the weekend, and I swear my blood pressure must have spiked when I read this in the article:

"Francis will also be opposed by the powerful US evangelical movement, said Calvin Beisner, spokesman for the conservative Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation, which has declared the US environmental movement to be “un-biblical” and a false religion."

Why is wanting clean air, clean water, clean soils and safe food 'un-biblical and a false religion'? Perhaps they want a world that looks like China - where all media (air, water, soil and food) show widespread contamination? The attacks on 'environmentalists' have gotten ridiculous.
Indeed. But profit-over-everything-else types have made it so that not wanting to see every tree cut down--and not wanting to see every plot of land developed, and not wanting to see every cubic foot of air or water polluted, and not wanting to see every inch of the earth's surface scraped away for coal or pricked by oil and gas wells, and not wanting to see millions suffer the disastrous effects of climate change--is somehow tantamount to evil.

I'll say this much: the Kochs (et al.) have done a pretty good job.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I mentioned it in an earlier comment, but this morning on the Today show while discussing the plane crash, they were calling the ITCZ "The Inter-Continental Convergence Zone."

I was like what? ICCZ?
Yeah, I think geologists call those "subduction zones"... :-)
Random confirmed tornado in Georgia
160. yoboi
Quoting 123. WxGuy2014:



When is El Nino coming? I thought it was supposed to be here in May, then June, July, August, Sept, October, November and heck December is over on Thursday lol. So much for those long term forecasts, absolutely no accuracy!


I will have to post a prediction by a scientist concerning El Nino.......
A New Social Conscience is rising out of the selfies and meme social chatter at a pace faster than cell phone models.

And along with it, a Giant Awareness of our position in the "Natural" order of things is becoming a self aware intelligence.

Fear it,

....but fear much, much greater what it's solution may bring about.

If Sony can go down, if the NSA can go down, if, if, if...


Already targeted Bad things in the air, Land, and Sea, can be unleashed in a moment...

Launch Codes are only a Human Fail Safe.

Humans are easily distracted, ...by default.

Then, in that Hour, All of Mankind will see how we can destroy a Planet.


And Earth will have been saved......,the Human relationship with Earth, will lie shattered.


She will go on, like nothing happened, as another great dying is already in progress.

"Have a Nice day"!
Some damage being reported with the tornado warned storm in Georgia. Some entrapments have been reported

Possible #TORNADO damage at Langdale Forestry in S. #Georgia:
@weatherchannel
Picture from @TheVDT


@weatherchannel: EMA in Lowndes Co. GA reporting one building collapsed at Langdale Forestry & railroad cars overturned. Pic - @TheVDT
Quoting 157. Neapolitan:

Indeed. But profit-over-everything-else types have made it so that not wanting to see every tree cut down--and not wanting to see every plot of land developed, and not wanting to see every cubic foot of air or water polluted, and not wanting to see every inch of the earth's surface scraped away for coal or pricked by oil and gas wells, and not wanting to see millions suffer the disastrous effects of climate change--is somehow tantamount to evil.

I'll say this much: the Kochs (et al.) have done a pretty good job.


Something I didn't mention in my earlier post was the assumption that ALL US evangelicals would oppose Pope Francis. The Cornwall Alliance does not speak for all of them; the Evangelical Climate Initiative and the Evangelical Environmental Network certainly do not agree with their stance. Both of these pre-date the Cornwall Alliance. The Guardian's article was a bit misleading in this aspect, as they only offered an opinion by one 'side' of the evangelicals in this issue.

On another note, it's 56F and overcast here.

Quoting 162. Doppler22:

Some damage being reported with the tornado warned storm in Georgia. Some entrapments have been reported

I'm not even sure the cell that produced the damaging tornado could be considered a 'thunderstorm', there was little if any lightning associated with it. Rotation was weak at best. Very strange.
Quoting luvtogolf:


No forecast of 7" of rain this week? No warnings to be aware of? What is going on here?


It will come soon. In a few short hours we will be hearing of 10" plus rains in 10-15 days for FL. With big adjectives like 'hammering' and 'blasted'. :)
Quoting 161. Patrap:

A New Social Conscience is rising out of the selfies and meme social chatter at a pace faster than cell phone models.

And along with it, a Giant Awareness of our position in the "Natural" order of things is becoming a self aware intelligence.

Fear it,

....but fear much, much greater what it's solution may bring about.

If Sony can go down, if the NSA can go down, if, if, if...


Already targeted Bad things in the air, Land, and Sea, can be unleashed in a moment...

Launch Codes are only a Human Fail Safe.

Humans are easily distracted, ...by default.

Then, in that Hour, All of Mankind will see how we can destroy a Planet.


And Earth will have been saved......,the Human relationship with Earth, will lie shattered.


She will go on, like nothing happened, as another great dying is already in progress.


Huh?!
On the climate change issue, and religious viewpoints aside, science should rule the day. I was happy to see helping my 13 year old with her science homework before the Christmas break that there is a section in her science book on climate change issues and carbon emissions contributing to the polar melt issues (with the picture in the book of a polar bear trying to hop-skip from broken ice patch to patch). We had a nice discussion on this issue and I went ahead and discussed issues in the Northern latitudes with glacial soot and melting permafrost and the impact on many of the towns and indigenous peoples living near the Arctic Circle. Weather conscious parents (like so many on this Blog) should read through their kids and grand kids science books to see what is in there and how this topic is addressed in the future to make sure that our kids are properly informed on these issues that will impact them the most.

My 23 year old daughter just purchased her first car and drove it to our house from Atlanta for Christmas.... A 2012 Prius. That made me a very proud weather-poppa.
Quoting opal92nwf:

Huh?!


I believe it's similar to the red pill or the blue pill.

"painful truth of reality (red pill) and the blissful ignorance of illusion (blue pill)."

The World refuses to take the red pill.
Quoting 168. opal92nwf:


Huh?!


My bad, sorry..

I added, "Have a Nice day"!
Boy for all this talk about colder temps ahead in the Doc's blog we sure don't look to be seeing much of it in NW Florida! Our average high right now is 60 and the coldest day I see in the 10 day forecast is a high of 57. I was hoping to see some temps 10 degrees or more below normal so it actually feels like Winter! It was 72 yesterday with 1/2 an inch of rain overnight, currently cloudy and 63.
Quoting 153. Patrap:

What IS known is that 2014 will go down as the Warmest Year recorded Globally...

and what is even more remarkable, is that it was done without a Strong El Nino signal.

I wunder why?





Can I respectfully ask what your goal is? Do you think passive aggressively posting about global warming is going to accomplish anything? From what I can tell, the debates that occur on this blog have yet to sway one side or the other towards a change of mind. Are you actually doing anything constructive to help the cause?
Usually jus to make Tampa Fans unravel here the day after the Saints ruined the party.

: P
Quoting 173. tampabaymatt:



Can I respectfully ask what your goal is? Do you think passive aggressively posting about global warming is going to accomplish anything? From what I can tell, the debates that occur on this blog have yet to sway one side or the other towards a change of mind. Are you actually doing anything constructive to help the cause?


The statement is a Scientific fact.

Awareness of such a thing is easily noted here, as it is a passion of the author and the concerned globally.

What any Human mind "believe's" is a personal choice, and I have no intent to change anyones.

It also has no bearing on the scientific evidence as well.

On topic, we're to go 10 F below Normal lows for the first day o da year...near freezing

Cooler is betta here, always.

Esp for the Sugar Bowl.

cold weather coming soon and maybe a snow storm to
Quoting Patrap:


The statement is a Scientific fact.

Awareness of such a thing is easily noted here, as it is a passion of the author, and the concerned globally.
and the author has a hot tub is his yard talk about an energy hog.
Quoting 175. Patrap:



The statement is a Scientific fact.

Awareness of such a thing is easily noted here, as it is a passion of the author and the concerned globally.

What any Human mind "believes" is a personal choice, and I have no intent to change anyones.

It also has no bearing or the scientific evidence as well.

On topic, were to go 10 F below Normal lows for the first day o da year...near freezing

Cooler is betta here, always.

Esp for the Sugar Bowl.




You don't need to change my mind, as I believe the same thing you do. However, incessantly talking about it does nothing. Until there are large scale, government supported changes, nothing will change. Keeping your A/C at 82 degrees might make you feel good, but it does nothing to combat climate change. I hope something is done at a large scale, but I'm not going to lose sleep about something I can do nothing to control.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


You don't need to change my mind, as I believe the same thing you do. However, incessantly talking about it does nothing. Until there are large scale, government supported changes, nothing will change. Keeping your A/C at 82 degrees might make you feel good, but it does nothing to combat climate change. I hope something is done at a large scale, but I'm not going to lose sleep about something I can do nothing to control.
Very true and the people pushing the cause are the biggest offenders.
On a related note, the Prius stats were remarkable. After driving to Tallahassee from Atlanta on Wednesday, and driving us around town in Tally for 4 days, she filled up her tank again before returning to Atl yesterday; $ 13.00 (with the low gas prices really helping). And she showed me the on-board stats............She was averaging about 58 MPG from Atlanta to Tally on I-75 and I-10.

Incredible really and I hope that this technology continues to trickle down to the automakers where they finally decide to incorporate it in more affordable entry-level cars across the board in the coming years.
Disturbing news about missing people. Hope they aren't right!

Italy ferry: 'Up to 38 still missing' amid confusion over Norman Atlantic passenger list
Death toll rises to eight on fire-ravaged car ferry Norman Atlantic as rescue operation finishes
The Telegraph, by John Phillips, Rome, 6:14PM GMT 29 Dec 2014
The death toll in the Italian car ferry fire shipwreck in the Adriatic climbed to eight today as a Greek report said as many as 38 people may still be missing.
The latest figures released by the Italian coast guard said eight people had died after the fire broke out in the Norman Atlantic Sunday and that 407 people had been rescued.
Earlier Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi heartily congratulated Italian rescuers on averting a "hecatomb" and said everyone had been rescued from the ferry.
However the respected Greek online weekly To VIma reported that as many as 38 people were still missing from the ferry.
Italian transport minister Maurizio Lupi admitted at a news conference that authorities are uncertain how many people who were evacuated from lifeboats had been tipped into the sea Sunday.
He also said that while the ship was officially carrying 478 people including 56 crew some survivors picked up were not on the passenger list.
Mr Renzi earlier on Monday during a news conference said there may have been illegal immigrants who were stowaways aboard the ferry.
Mr Renzi told the last man to leave the ship was Captain Argilio Giacomazzi, saying "there is only the captain [left on board], who like all serious captains is the last to abandon ship". ...


Edit: Now 10 already :-(
Italy ferry: Death toll rises to 10 as evacuation ends
29 December 2014 Last updated at 19:35 GMT
Quoting 140. hurricanes2018:




what up with all this snow next week


Hey, I may get to sharpen up my new snow plow!! maybe earn back some of the investment expenditure!
Well since I'am one of the few bloggers that live in D.C when I walk past Capital hill and see those big nice expensive trucks and fancy cars in the parking lot I wonder who drives them?.I remember being at the gas station and a big ruck pulled in and on the bumper sticker it said "stop global warming" he was someone that worked on the Hill.Kinda ironic?
Don't know how accurate this map is but here is the reported 24 hour snowfall for Conus from Intellicast; not much of a White Christmas at the moment for the majority of the US but that should increase some over the next several days as the forecasted low swings up from the plains/mid-west gulf up towards the Eastern seaboard:



Quoting Naga5000:


Seriously?


The article provokes an interesting thought process. Especially about the monetary part about there being climate change.

I still say, "What if we created a better world for nothing?" is the question I want the deniers to answer for me. So if we created clean, renewable power and didn't have to pollute out drinking water and knock down mountains to do it, what's wrong with it?
The link below is an animation of 10mb temperatures (through 240hr) as forecast by the 12z ECMWF. The 10mb layer is towards the upper portion of the stratosphere, making it useful to track the state and shape of the polar vortex. As we head through the next 5 days, warming across Eurasia is expected to spread towards the Arctic region, leading to an elongation and subsequent split of the PV. A few days ago, models suggested that the PV would then reconsolidate and move northward, albeit in a much weakened state. However, that has since changed, with the ECMWF and JMA (and, to a lesser extent, the GFS) indicating a secondary warming event across Greenland that spreads towards the Arctic. This helps to keep the PV split and weaken it even further, to the point where the PV is in an extremely fragile state (essentially destroyed) by day 10 as it sinks into southern Manitoba.

This is very good news for cold and snow lovers across the Central/East USA, as warming across Greenland, Eurasia, and the Arctic helps to force a negative NAO and a negative AO. However, it's important to keep in mind that there's typically a lag response of 2 to 3 weeks for the effects of a warming event to become noticeable. We should see those effects in late January, which is coincidentally when the MJO is forecast to move into the favorable octants 7-1.

Winter cancel? Nah...

Link
Quoting 176. hurricanes2018:

cold weather coming soon and maybe a snow storm to


To where? Canada...
Chatanika Loop, Eagle River, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 10:38 AM AKST on December 29, 2014
Clear
28.7 °F
Clear
Windchill: 29 °F
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 25 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 3.0 mph
Pressure: 30.33 in (Steady)
More Snow on the way there,
57.2F here and they are calling for 30F
on New Years Eve... (Here)
Kate is strengthening again!!!
Look to the eye:
Quoting 185. trunkmonkey:



Hey, I may get to sharpen up my new snow plow!! maybe earn back some of the investment expenditure!


The three powerful snow plows in my house are aged 16, 18, and 56.
And today's 12z ECMWF 850mb temperature anomaly animation:

Link

(Sorry for the frame slide at 96hr)
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


The three powerful snow plows in my house are aged 16, 18, and 56.


There is only a 42 year old broken down plow in my household.

Ped - 31F whree I am at now, but earlier I was in Wasilla and it was a warm 40F out. Making the snow slushy.. I thought the roads were icy, they were watery.
Until it is forced to take the whole bottle...

There is certainly no shortage of denial amongst the human race.

Quoting 170. Sfloridacat5:



I believe it's similar to the red pill or the blue pill.

"painful truth of reality (red pill) and the blissful ignorance of illusion (blue pill)."

The World refuses to take the red pill.


just updated
Quoting 139. LAbonbon:



I saw this over the weekend, and I swear my blood pressure must have spiked when I read this in the article:

"Francis will also be opposed by the powerful US evangelical movement, said Calvin Beisner, spokesman for the conservative Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation, which has declared the US environmental movement to be “un-biblical” and a false religion."

Why is wanting clean air, clean water, clean soils and safe food 'un-biblical and a false religion'? Perhaps they want a world that looks like China - where all media (air, water, soil and food) show widespread contamination? The attacks on 'environmentalists' have gotten ridiculous.




Every time I read a post about people's winter gardens I feel like such a slacker. I complain about winter produce in the stores, yet I have the obvious solution at hand. And living in South Louisiana, I really have no excuse...


The key thing about a winter garden is that the work is preloaded in September and October (August and September in the North). There is a lot of preparation and planting to be done then. Growth is slow in winter and problems develop slowly and have a lot of time to be mitigated (except for occasional frost protection.. that's usually urgent). Winter is mostly a time of harvesting what (hopefully) grew earlier but the harvest window is weeks to months rather than a few days. If you make a mistake though you won't be able to grow your way out of it fast (or at all) as you can in summer. But flavor of cool season things that don't go through too many freeze/thaw cycles is often unsurpassed, in particular broccoli, carrots and spinach are best when grown or at least ripened in very cool conditions.
Quoting 172. 69Viking:

Boy for all this talk about colder temps ahead in the Doc's blog we sure don't look to be seeing much of it in NW Florida! Our average high right now is 60 and the coldest day I see in the 10 day forecast is a high of 57. I was hoping to see some temps 10 degrees or more below normal so it actually feels like Winter! It was 72 yesterday with 1/2 an inch of rain overnight, currently cloudy and 63.


You still have January, February and March to get through before declaring winter a no-show.
My 2014 Mazda 3 averages 40.7 mpg overall; approaching high 40's highway (especially if I stay under 65). 4 cyl gasoline engine, not a hybrid. 500 miles on 12 gallons of gas. Love it.

Quoting 180. weathermanwannabe:

On a related note, the Prius stats were remarkable. After driving to Tallahassee from Atlanta on Wednesday, and driving us around town in Tally for 4 days, she filled up her tank again before returning to Atl yesterday; $ 13.00 (with the low gas prices really helping). And she showed me the on-board stats............She was averaging about 58 MPG from Atlanta to Tally on I-75 and I-10.

Incredible really and I hope that this technology continues to trickle down to the automakers where they finally decide to incorporate it in more affordable entry-level cars across the board in the coming years.
Quoting 199. georgevandenberghe:



You still have January, February and March to get through before declaring winter a no-show.


I haven't declared it a no show yet, we had a good blast of cold air back in November but haven't had a freezing temp the whole month of December, that's not normal. It's hunting season and I prefer to hunt when I don't have to fight the bugs when trying to hold still! It's generally bug free when temps stay below 60.
202. SuzK
Quoting 92. StormTrackerScott:



My Oaks are dropping its leaves all at once now and I'm even noticing lots of pollen around my house as there is a green film now on everything. Just in the last week actually this started happening.


Here in northeast Pennsylvania the skunk cabbage flowers are inches above ground. My pansies are still alive and green, despite nights in the teens. In the Detroit MI area, where we have been repeatedly over the fall, the buds are showing on the trees. In PA, our deer and squirrels are all dark furred. There is no snow or ice. I wonder how winter will unfold and the weather moving forward into 2015. There will be no let up of anomalies, of that I am confident. (anomali?)
Quoting 198. georgevandenberghe:



The key thing about a winter garden is that the work is preloaded in September and October (August and September in the North). There is a lot of preparation and planting to be done then. ...


I have to confess I'm a bit confused, lol. This is what "winter garden" (Wintergarten) means in Germany: Extended living room in the greenery, protected by glass:



But I guess you mean something like this, a greenhouse?

Quoting 195. Dakster:



There is only a 42 year old broken down plow in my household.

Ped - 31F whree I am at now, but earlier I was in Wasilla and it was a warm 40F out. Making the snow slushy.. I thought the roads were icy, they were watery.


hated it when the slush would freeze at night and the ridges left made it hard to walk anywhere !! easy to break an ankle if you step wrong !!
Quoting 184. Naga5000:



Seriously?


Forbes Magazine and Patrick Michaels? That's a double loser
Quoting 198. georgevandenberghe:



The key thing about a winter garden is that the work is preloaded in September and October (August and September in the North). There is a lot of preparation and planting to be done then. Growth is slow in winter and problems develop slowly and have a lot of time to be mitigated (except for occasional frost protection.. that's usually urgent). Winter is mostly a time of harvesting what (hopefully) grew earlier but the harvest window is weeks to months rather than a few days. If you make a mistake though you won't be able to grow your way out of it fast (or at all) as you can in summer. But flavor of cool season things that don't go through too many freeze/thaw cycles is often unsurpassed, in particular broccoli, carrots and spinach are best when grown or at least ripened in very cool conditions.


How tolerant are cool season veggies to lots of water? If I do a garden I'll likely have to do a raised bed, as my yard gets really wet (actually lots of ponding) with a good rain. But I suppose it could be set up in such a way as to aid drainage...depending how deep/shallow their roots go.

I'm originally from New England, and we always had gardens, but growing down here seems a lot different (timing, choices of veggies, etc.), than it is there.

Lastly, what about fire ants (question for anyone down South)? Seems like they move around the yard, I put down chemicals to curb them, and they just move...kind of like playing whack-a-mole, really. If I set up a garden, is it just inviting the ants in? And are the chemicals safe around veggies?

I can take this to wumail, if need be. I know that fire ant pesticides aren't really weather-related...
Quoting 189. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The link below is an animation of 10mb temperatures (through 240hr) as forecast by the 12z ECMWF. The 10mb layer is towards the upper portion of the stratosphere, making it useful to track the state and shape of the polar vortex. As we head through the next 5 days, warming across Eurasia is expected to spread towards the Arctic region, leading to an elongation and subsequent split of the PV. A few days ago, models suggested that the PV would then reconsolidate and move northward, albeit in a much weakened state. However, that has since changed, with the ECMWF and JMA (and, to a lesser extent, the GFS) indicating a secondary warming event across Greenland that spreads towards the Arctic. This helps to keep the PV split and weaken it even further, to the point where the PV is in an extremely fragile state (essentially destroyed) by day 10 as it sinks into southern Manitoba.

This is very good news for cold and snow lovers across the Central/East USA, as warming across Greenland, Eurasia, and the Arctic helps to force a negative NAO and a negative AO. However, it's important to keep in mind that there's typically a lag response of 2 to 3 weeks for the effects of a warming event to become noticeable. We should see those effects in late January, which is coincidentally when the MJO is forecast to move into the favorable octants 7-1.

Winter cancel? Nah...

Link
What does all that red mean.It looks like a horror movie scene.
Quoting 207. washingtonian115:

What does all that red mean.It looks like a horror movie scene.

Lol Washi. Here's two images, at hours 0 and 240, without pressure lines overlaid (when they are, Dr. Maue has the colorbar set to disappear for some reason). Oranges and reds indicate temperatures above -50C.

Quoting tampabaymatt:


just updated


I see that S.W. Florida is going to be dry for the next 7 days.
I'll have to check, but we'll come close to setting a record this month for the least amount of rainfall.
We should end December with .05" for the month.

But I think there have been Decembers with 0.0" before in Fort Myers.
Quoting 203. barbamz:



I have to confess I'm a bit confused, lol. This is what "winter garden" (Wintergarten) means in Germany: Extended living room in the greenery, protected by glass:



But I guess you mean something like this, a greenhouse?




No, I'm talking about actually growing cold tolerant vegetables outside in winter. Some (carrots and spinach) are fully hardy to at least -15C . Others (brussels sprouts) are killed or at least damaged by temperatures below -10C.
And some others taste good in cool but are too tender to get through most winters at least in the U.S. middle atlantic region where annual winter lows are between -10 and -15C (lettuce and some broccoli.)

Quoting 207. washingtonian115:

What does all that red mean.It looks like a horror movie scene.


It is the Temperature of the 10mb stratospheric layer (red is warmer) and forecast a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event with a complete destruction of the real Polar Vortex in the stratosphere. Stratospheric forecast after 3 days are highly unreliable so take it with a trainload of salt, but if it materialize than your snow chances normally have to increase.
Quoting 202. SuzK:



Here in northeast Pennsylvania the skunk cabbage flowers are inches above ground. My pansies are still alive and green, despite nights in the teens. In the Detroit MI area, where we have been repeatedly over the fall, the buds are showing on the trees. In PA, our deer and squirrels are all dark furred. There is no snow or ice. I wonder how winter will unfold and the weather moving forward into 2015. There will be no let up of anomalies, of that I am confident. (anomali?)


The pollen in Florida is primarily from grasses. We haven't had a freeze so they remain quite green and active. The oaks are still dormant. It is only December 28th. While December has been very warm, November was quite cool.

Source:
http://www.pollen.com/allergy-forecast.asp?zip=32 819
This Week: Snow and Bitter Cold
Early in the week, Winter Storm Frona will have two distinct sides.

One side will be along and east of the Rockies, where arctic air will surge south behind a cold front. Easterly winds behind the front will blow upslope into the Front Range of the Rockies, helping produce snowfall in Wyoming and Colorado. Denver, in particular, is expected to pick up as much as 3 to 6 inches of snow through Tuesday.Light snow may also spread into parts of the Plains, including Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota and Iowa as the shallow arctic air advances and forces moist air to rise above it, creating clouds and precipitation.

Strong winds will accompany Winter Storm Frona through the central and southern Rockies. The arctic temperatures and strong winds will combine to create dangerous wind chills of 20 below to 30 below zero in parts of Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. Similar wind chills are expected to invade the northern Plains, but mainly after any light snow has ended.

This part of Frona should drop southward into eastern New Mexico and West Texas Tuesday with a mix of snow, sleet and patchy freezing rain before diminishing Wednesday.

The other side of Frona will be a strong jet-stream disturbance in the upper atmosphere, which will plunge south into the Desert Southwest early this week.

At first, this disturbance will be moisture-starved, so we only expect scattered insignificant snowfall for the Sierra Nevada and much of the Great Basin through Tuesday.


A man walks on the Pearl St. Mall amid fresh snow in Boulder, Colo., Friday, Dec. 26, 2014. Parts of Colorado's mountains and plains are getting more snow, but the Christmas storm is tapering off in the Denver area
Quoting 181. opal92nwf:

Will The Overselling Of Global Warming Lead To A New Scientific Dark Age?

I guess that 2014 shows that the global warming conspiracy has become so malignant that it has spread to thermometers


A truck fitted with a snow plow clears snow in the streets Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2014, at the intersection of Colfax Ave and Race St in Denver, Colo.
Quoting 206. LAbonbon:



How tolerant are cool season veggies to lots of water? If I do a garden I'll likely have to do a raised bed, as my yard gets really wet (actually lots of ponding) with a good rain. But I suppose it could be set up in such a way as to aid drainage...depending how deep/shallow their roots go.

I'm originally from New England, and we always had gardens, but growing down here seems a lot different (timing, choices of veggies, etc.), than it is there.

Lastly, what about fire ants (question for anyone down South)? Seems like they move around the yard, I put down chemicals to curb them, and they just move...kind of like playing whack-a-mole, really. If I set up a garden, is it just inviting the ants in? And are the chemicals safe around veggies?

I can take this to wumail, if need be. I know that fire ant pesticides aren't really weather-related...


I always do raised beds. Have lost a few gardens to soggy summer periods prior to doing this.

Most crops tolerate flooding much better when the soil is cool or cold. Roots don't need as much oxygen then.
However it's still a good idea to avoid flooding if possible. So yes do raised beds and anything else that will improve drainage.

We don't have fire ants in DC. I suspect the first hill of them to survive a future winter will be under the DCA observing station.

In TLH I had problems with fire ants in newly planted spring gardens, otherwise their numbers were low enough to tolerate. I had to build little plastic party cup rings around my broccoli to keep them out. I don't remember what else I did during the short periods they were a problem but some of it was irresponsible and I wouldn't do it today.
This is a big reason why I live in Florida.

Quoting 216. ACSeattle:


I guess that 2014 shows that the global warming conspiracy has become so malignant that it has spread to thermometers



It has clearly spread to my windows which have been altered to block the view of the 12" of snow that fell (unnoticed) this
month in the DC area. I am surrounded by a virtual reality shell that synthesizes feelings of warmth and mud and a gray-green warmish winter view through my (non-google) glasses.
Quoting 210. georgevandenberghe:
No, I'm talking about actually growing cold tolerant vegetables outside in winter.

Okay, thank you, this third possible meaning didn't come into my mind, lol.
BTW, my favorite winter salad is corn salad; I've read it can stand temperatures up to -20C (-4F). But of course I just eat it and not grow it on my balcony downtown, lol.

Quoting barbamz:
Disturbing news about missing people. Hope they aren't right!

Italy ferry: 'Up to 38 still missing' amid confusion over Norman Atlantic passenger list
Death toll rises to eight on fire-ravaged car ferry Norman Atlantic as rescue operation finishes
The Telegraph, by John Phillips, Rome, 6:14PM GMT 29 Dec 2014
The death toll in the Italian car ferry fire shipwreck in the Adriatic climbed to eight today as a Greek report said as many as 38 people may still be missing.
The latest figures released by the Italian coast guard said eight people had died after the fire broke out in the Norman Atlantic Sunday and that 407 people had been rescued.
Earlier Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi heartily congratulated Italian rescuers on averting a "hecatomb" and said everyone had been rescued from the ferry.
However the respected Greek online weekly To VIma reported that as many as 38 people were still missing from the ferry.
Italian transport minister Maurizio Lupi admitted at a news conference that authorities are uncertain how many people who were evacuated from lifeboats had been tipped into the sea Sunday.
He also said that while the ship was officially carrying 478 people including 56 crew some survivors picked up were not on the passenger list.
Mr Renzi earlier on Monday during a news conference said there may have been illegal immigrants who were stowaways aboard the ferry.
Mr Renzi told the last man to leave the ship was Captain Argilio Giacomazzi, saying "there is only the captain [left on board], who like all serious captains is the last to abandon ship". ...


Edit: Now 10 already :-(
Italy ferry: Death toll rises to 10 as evacuation ends
29 December 2014 Last updated at 19:35 GMT
Congratulating themselves on avoiding a "hecatomb" when no even knows how many people were on the vessel. The latest from the Tovima online paper is that five have died and the rescue operation is over. Given my past experience, I find that figure hard to believe. The UTube video that is part of the article looks fake to me. I've never seen an authentic Greek Coast Guard watermark that obscured almost the entire video. If you watch the video closely, you'll see the same guy is "rescued" three times. It's a toss up as to which is worse, the Greeks or the Italians, when it comes to maritime rescue, but we certainly don't know the whole story right now.
Quoting 218. georgevandenberghe:



I always do raised beds. Have lost a few gardens to soggy summer periods prior to doing this.

Most crops tolerate flooding much better when the soil is cool or cold. Roots don't need as much oxygen then.
However it's still a good idea to avoid flooding if possible. So yes do raised beds and anything else that will improve drainage.

We don't have fire ants in DC. I suspect the first hill of them to survive a future winter will be under the DCA observing station.

In TLH I had problems with fire ants in newly planted spring gardens, otherwise their numbers were low enough to tolerate. I had to build little plastic party cup rings around my broccoli to keep them out. I don't remember what else I did during the short periods they were a problem but some of it was irresponsible and I wouldn't do it today.


Thanks for the info. Just spent some time reading through posts regarding fire ants on a southern gardening forum. Lots of successes...and failures...were discussed. If I try winter gardening next year, I'll let you know how I fare.
Quoting 221. barbamz:


Okay, thank you, this third possible meaning didn't come into my mind, lol.
BTW, my favorite winter salad is corn salad; I've read it can stand temperatures up to -20C (-4F). But of course I just eat it and not grow it on my balcony downtown, lol.




I have some achilles heels in gardening and one is growing this "easy" crop. I've never gotten it to thrive although it is fully winter hardy here. I believe though this is native to western Europe and fully adapted there. It deserves to be grown more here in the middle atlantic.


Quoting opal92nwf:
Will The Overselling Of Global Warming Lead To A New Scientific Dark Age?
If a "Scientific Dark Age" can be defined as one in which secular curiosity and intellectual advancement is replaced for an extended period of time by the weight of those wishing to promote superstition and spiritualism above all else, then it won't be due to the thousands of scientists working fervently to measure what we're doing to our atmosphere and find out how bad things may get. No, any "New Scientific Dark Age" will be ushered in, if at all, by innocent but seriously under-educated and ill-informed people being constantly lied to by those who should know better, and by politicians bought and paid-for by massively profitable corporations and industries that maintain their obscene profits through doing and spending whatever they need to to silence what those thousands of scientists are saying. In other words, it'll happen due to the efforts of unapologetic fossil fuel shills such as Michaels and anti-science mediums like Fox "News".
Quoting 222. sar2401:

Congratulating themselves on avoiding a "hecatomb" when no even knows how many people were on the vessel. The latest from the Tovima online paper is that five have died and the rescue operation is over. Given my past experience, I find that figure hard to believe. The UTube video that is part of the article looks fake to me. I've never seen an authentic Greek Coast Guard watermark that obscured almost the entire video. If you watch the video closely, you'll see the same guy is "rescued" three times. It's a toss up as to which is worse, the Greeks or the Italians, when it comes to maritime rescue, but we certainly don't know the whole story right now.


Wow, Sar, you really think something like this video below is faked? Maybe I'm still too innocent for this world, lol. But my impression was the same SAR guy is let down several times in order to pick up one victim after the other and take them with him back to the heli.


29.12.2014: #NormanAtlantic Rescue Operation - new video shot from Greek Super Puma helicopter #soccorsoNormanAtlantic
Quoting Neapolitan:
If a "Scientific Dark Age" can be defined as one in which secular curiosity and intellectual advancement is replaced for an extended period of time by the weight of those wishing to promote superstition and spiritualism above all else, then it won't be due to the thousands of scientists working fervently to measure what we're doing to our atmosphere and find out how bad things may get. No, any "New Scientific Dark Age" will be ushered in, if at all, by innocent but seriously under-educated and ill-informed people being constantly lied to by those who should know better, and by politicians bought and paid-for by massively profitable corporations and industries that maintain their obscene profits through doing and spending whatever they need to to silence what those thousands of scientists are saying. In other words, it'll happen due to the efforts of unapologetic fossil fuel shills such as Michaels and anti-science mediums like Fox "News".
Greed is Evil...And Evil will do anything to get what it wants....Anything
Why is such a blatantly obvious political opinion post allowed to stay on this site?
Quoting 181. opal92nwf:

Will The Overselling Of Global Warming Lead To A New Scientific Dark Age?


Yes, I get all of my Science from Coast to Coast AM, OP-ED pieces, The Cato Institute's Patrick Michaels, and the opinions of those that lack the current scientific knowledge to even convey a well reasoned thought concerning greenhouse gases. Such people as Garth Paltridge. Why should I waste my time trying to understand any of the Science involved when it is so easy to accept the politically driven opinions of those that wish to form my "knowledge" on the associated Sciences? Critical thinking is for losers when it is so much easier to have your thoughts given to you. On second thought, it may well be to my benefit to actually try to learn the Science for myself and then let the scientific evidence speak for itself. What amazes me so much is that people will be very skeptical of what the climatologists tell us, as they should be, and then not be as equally skeptical of any OP-ED piece that will support their preconceived opinions. Should not skepticism be distributed equally? Why, after all of this time, do we still need to be having pointless discussions as to if the AGTW is a hoax? The Laws of Physics, The Laws of Chemistry and The Laws of Thermodynamics have assured us that they do not feel violated by the AGWT. No other scientific theory even comes close to explaining the observations being made than does the AGWT. Any "debates" over this can be seen merely as an attempt to delay any actions towards mitigation efforts until those offended by these Laws are able to die their natural death first. The coward's way out? From where I am standing, yes. You are able to change my stance when you provide the scientific evidence that wins a Nobel Prize for you when you have shown us that the AGWT is a hoax, or even over stated.
228 was strictly rhetorical. I know the answer.
Quoting 228. PensacolaDoug:

Why is such a blatantly obvious political opinion post allowed to stay on this site?


If it were hurricane season, the blog would be much more active and more than likely the post would've been flagged by now.
Quoting Naga5000:


Seriously?
You're not going to believe this but Dr. Michaels got his PhD in 1979 in ecological climatology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His doctoral thesis was titled, "Atmospheric anomalies and crop yields in North America". Thus, he is listed as a climatologist. He is a Fellow with the Cato Institute and has written for many right wing publications and is a self-described climate change skeptic. Almost all of his books have been published by the Cato Institute. His last peer reviewed paper, "Changing Heat-Related Mortality in the United States", was written 1993. It's not clear to me if the changing heat related mortality has to do with people or plants....

You heard dat?

I think reality just landed.

Quoting 232. sar2401:

You're not going to believe this but Dr. Michaels got his PhD in 1979 in ecological climatology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His doctoral thesis was titled, "Atmospheric anomalies and crop yields in North America". Thus, he is listed as a climatologist. He is a Fellow with the Cato Institute and has written for many right wing publications and is a self-described climate change skeptic. Almost all of his books have been published by the Cato Institute. His last peer reviewed paper, "Changing Heat-Related Mortality in the United States", was written 1993. It's not clear to me if the changing heat related mortality has to do with people or plants....


Skeptical Science has a great page on him...it even mentions his opinion on the viability of the Prius.
Quoting barbamz:


Wow, Sar, you really think something like this video below is faked? Maybe I'm still too innocent for this world, lol. But my impression was the same SAR guy is let down several times in order to pick up one victim after the other and take them with him back to the heli.


29.12.2014: #NormanAtlantic Rescue Operation - new video shot from Greek Super Puma helicopter #soccorsoNormanAtlantic
Not faked by the Greeks but by some school kids trying to make a name for themselves. I obviously don't know what's true but those videos are never posted on YouTube in real time, They are reviewed and used as training tools for future rescues. Any service member posting this to YouTube in real time is going to be in big trouble. As I said before, I've never seen a rescue video almost obscured by a watermark so large as to cover up most of the video. I don't really know, but it looks fake to me.
Quoting 226. barbamz:



Wow, Sar, you really think something like this video below is faked? Maybe I'm still too innocent for this world, lol. But my impression was the same SAR guy is let down several times in order to pick up one victim after the other and take them with him back to the heli.


29.12.2014: #NormanAtlantic Rescue Operation - new video shot from Greek Super Puma helicopter #soccorsoNormanAtlantic



Observation is key,..
I admit I have a warm bias, but it looks like somewhat cooler temperatures are ahead

Lotsa B-roll footage have ID watermarks...for copyright protection









The 1:25 mark is a Man who just escape out the Upper Lower 9th rising Floodwaters..


Uploaded on Mar 8, 2010
8/29/2005 Raw B-Roll shot during Hurricane Katrina as the worst of the hurricane hit east of the city in the Mississippi region, the worst of the destruction was just starting to happen in New Orleans, LA as the levees failed. POV footage while driving on Canal Street when an unknown man comes up to the cameraman to tell him that he saw water coming over the levee and the water started to rise up to his second story apartment. POV and main camera mixed for audio of the interview. Time of the footage was 8:25 a.m.. POV footage continues while reports of the levee failure were called into a national news network news desk but could not be confirmed.

Video continues at St. Bernard Ave and North Claiborne Avenue at Interstate 10 that shows the water rising as the city begins to flood from the failed levee system.
I love how everybody assumed that I completely believe/supported the article I posted.

I think it was really good food for thought, and that elements of this "overselling" described are present.
Quoting 229. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Yes, I get all of my Science from Coast to Coast AM, OP-ED pieces, The Cato Institute's Patrick Michaels, and the opinions of those that lack the current scientific knowledge to even convey a well reasoned thought concerning greenhouse gases. Such people as Garth Paltridge. Why should I waste my time trying to understand any of the Science involved when it is so easy to accept the politically driven opinions of those that wish to form my "knowledge" on the associated Sciences? Critical thinking is for losers when it is so much easier to have your thoughts given to you. On second thought, it may well be to my benefit to actually try to learn the Science for myself and then let the scientific evidence speak for itself. What amazes me so much is that people will be very skeptical of what the climatologists tell us, as they should be, and then not be as equally skeptical of any OP-ED piece that will support their preconceived opinions. Should not skepticism be distributed equally? Why, after all of this time, do we still need to be having pointless discussions as to if the AGTW is a hoax? The Laws of Physics, The Laws of Chemistry and The Laws of Thermodynamics have assured us that they do not feel violated by the AGWT. No other scientific theory even comes close to explaining the observations being made than does the AGWT. Any "debates" over this can be seen merely as an attempt to delay any actions towards mitigation efforts until those offended by these Laws are able to die their natural death first. The coward's way out? From where I am standing, yes. You are able to change my stance when you provide the scientific evidence that wins a Nobel Prize for you when you have shown us that the AGWT is a hoax, or even over stated.

Well then, my question is: how "scientifically informed" do people have to become before they can be accepted as having a valid opinion on certain things?
Winter Storm Frona
Frona will continue to produce mountain snows for the Wasatch through Colorado Rockies tonight and Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday Frona is reinvigorated by more upper-level energy that dives south through California and cuts off an upper-level low. This will help to produce snow for the San Gabriel and San Bernadino Ranges in Southern California Tuesday night, into the Mogollon Rim of Arizona Wednesday. By Wednesday night it will be cold enough for snowfall even across Las Vegas, which sits at ~2200ft. elevation. One to three inches are possible there through New Year's morning. One area I am very concerned about is the I-40 corridor that runs westward from Flagstaff. I would not be surprised to see well over a foot of snow along that stretch Wednesday into Wednesday night.
As the system lifts eastward there will be cold air locked in at the surface across parts of the Southern Plains. Limited moisture is expected to drift northward across the cold air and that will set up the potential for some icing to occur New Years Day from Texas through Oklahoma to southern Arkansas. It is still too early to pinpoint the timing and exact location of the icing but the forecast below for Thursday from the GFC shows the area to be concerned about right now. Due to the limited moisture available I do not see a major icing event right now, rather just enough ice to cause slippery conditions on untreated roads and bridges.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Why is such a blatantly obvious political opinion post allowed to stay on this site?
I find it humorous that a few here would complain about my posting "political opinion" without also complaining about the political opinion espoused by the OP's linked article to which I was responding.

But I digress.

My primary point is this: if you can kindly point out any instance of "opinion" in my comment, please do so, and I will provide backup to prove that I was, indeed, stating provable fact.

Thanks!
Quoting 232. sar2401:

You're not going to believe this but Dr. Michaels got his PhD in 1979 in ecological climatology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His doctoral thesis was titled, "Atmospheric anomalies and crop yields in North America". Thus, he is listed as a climatologist. He is a Fellow with the Cato Institute and has written for many right wing publications and is a self-described climate change skeptic. Almost all of his books have been published by the Cato Institute. His last peer reviewed paper, "Changing Heat-Related Mortality in the United States", was written 1993. It's not clear to me if the changing heat related mortality has to do with people or plants....
Below is an abstract of a similarly-titled paper:
Changing heat-related mortality in the United States.
Robert E Davis, Paul C Knappenberger, Patrick J Michaels, and Wendy M Novicoff

Abstract

Heat is the primary weather-related cause of death in the United States. Increasing heat and humidity, at least partially related to anthropogenic climate change, suggest that a long-term increase in heat-related mortality could occur. We calculated the annual excess mortality on days when apparent temperatures--an index that combines air temperature and humidity--exceeded a threshold value for 28 major metropolitan areas in the United States from 1964 through 1998. Heat-related mortality rates declined significantly over time in 19 of the 28 cities. For the 28-city average, there were 41.0 +/- 4.8 (mean +/- SE) excess heat-related deaths per year (per standard million) in the 1960s and 1970s, 17.3 +/- 2.7 in the 1980s, and 10.5 +/- 2.0 in the 1990s. In the 1960s and 1970s, almost all study cities exhibited mortality significantly above normal on days with high apparent temperatures. During the 1980s, many cities, particularly those in the typically hot and humid southern United States, experienced no excess mortality. In the 1990s, this effect spread northward across interior cities. This systematic desensitization of the metropolitan populace to high heat and humidity over time can be attributed to a suite of technologic, infrastructural, and biophysical adaptations, including increased availability of air conditioning.
Full Text
The Full Text of this article is available as a PDF (227K).
Winter storm warnings and watches are pretty far south...as well as the wind chill advisories advancing south into Texas (-5F to -15F) brrrrrr

Quoting 225. Neapolitan:

If a "Scientific Dark Age" can be defined as one in which secular curiosity and intellectual advancement is replaced for an extended period of time by the weight of those wishing to promote superstition and spiritualism above all else, then it won't be due to the thousands of scientists working fervently to measure what we're doing to our atmosphere and find out how bad things may get. No, any "New Scientific Dark Age" will be ushered in, if at all, by innocent but seriously under-educated and ill-informed people being constantly lied to by those who should know better, and by politicians bought and paid-for by massively profitable corporations and industries that maintain their obscene profits through doing and spending whatever they need to to silence what those thousands of scientists are saying. In other words, it'll happen due to the efforts of unapologetic fossil fuel shills such as Michaels and anti-science mediums like Fox "News".

You can throw out all the scientific jargon you want, but it won't sway people from going away from their beliefs stemming from religion. The wall gets higher and higher between the two when this nation starts making science it's own god.
Yawwnnn....
Quoting 245. opal92nwf:


You can throw out all the scientific jargon you want, but it won't sway people from going away from their beliefs stemming from religion. The wall gets higher and higher between the two when this nation starts making science it's own god.
Just as the wall gets higher when people confuse religion for science.
Quoting 240. opal92nwf:


Well then, my question is: how "scientifically informed" do people have to become before they can be accepted as having a valid opinion on certain things?


A person does not need to be informed to have an opinion. Everyone is entitled to their opinions. No one is entitled to their own facts. As for how "scientifically informed" a person has to be is more based on how well a person is able to work with the knowledge they have as opposed to having to have a complete understanding of all of the Sciences involved. I am no Science guru. I am not of an advanced intelligence. There is no reason why anyone here cannot understand enough Science to make their own personal gains in usable knowledge. Knowledge that will allow them to understand the AGWT well enough to know if it is a hoax or if it is based on sound Science. Almost everyone here is at least as able to learn as I have been able to do so. The only difference may be is that I will no longer accept as knowledge as what cannot be shown to be knowledge.
Quoting 239. opal92nwf:

I love how everybody assumed that I completely believe/supported the article I posted.

I think it was really good food for thought, and that elements of this "overselling" described are present.


That article was a science denying pile of crap, nothing more. Food for thought? If you mean making people think to be sure to stay away from people who spread nonsense as truth in order to purposefully cloud an otherwise pretty straightforward branch of earth sciences, chemistry, and physics. Then yes, delicious.

These articles are a major part of the problem, the reason why so many people are completely clueless as to the actual science and repeat the same denialist talking points over and over even though they have been addressed and debunked repeatedly.
Quoting 245. opal92nwf:


You can throw out all the scientific jargon you want, but it won't sway people from going away from their beliefs stemming from religion. The wall gets higher and higher between the two when this nation starts making science it's own god.


No one is making science God. That's not how science works. And those who understand science and the scientific method and processes in no way equate that to religion. You are creating a straw man to justify your position. Nice try.
I posted a new blog entry where you can throw in your Vegas snow predictions.

Link
Quoting 245. opal92nwf:


You can throw out all the scientific jargon you want, but it won't sway people from going away from their beliefs stemming from religion. The wall gets higher and higher between the two when this nation starts making science it's own god.
Reminds me of debates I used to have with an old-school scientist. My view is that we form scientific theories and the supporting mathematics to create models that have predictive power. He insisted that science was striving to discover God's laws of the universe, the same philosophy that guided great scientists such as Albert Einstein, Lord Rayleigh, Lord Kelvin and many of their predecessors and peers.
Quoting 250. Naga5000:



No one is making science God. That's not how science works. And those who understand science and the scientific method and processes in no way equate that to religion. You are creating a straw man to justify your position. Nice try.

It does qualify as a god in the sense of someone going to it as much as they would religion. Devoting all their time to studying, reading about, advocating....
Quoting 249. Naga5000:



That article was a science denying pile of crap, nothing more. Food for thought? If you mean making people think to be sure to stay away from people who spread nonsense as truth in order to purposefully cloud an otherwise pretty straightforward branch of earth sciences, chemistry, and physics. Then yes, delicious.

These articles are a major part of the problem, the reason why so many people are completely clueless as to the actual science and repeat the same denialist talking points over and over even though they have been addressed and debunked repeatedly.

If I understood it right, the article was more analyzing a social issue, and describing how people might react to interpretation of this whole issue.


oops!!!
Quoting 253. opal92nwf:


It does qualify as a god in the sense of someone going to it as much as they would religion. Devoting all their time to studying, reading about, advocating....


Hey, we should do dat fer Cancer maybe?

Maybe up yer definition of a God too.


I'm kinda partial to Greek God Bacchus myself.

: P
How Bizarre ?

Can you follow me down the rabbit Hole?

The Universe has Easter eggs too.

Why who'd a thunk it?

A Human Conscience......the self reflection of God.

Us.


"Doubly-even self-dual linear binary error-correcting block code," first invented by Claude Shannon in the 1940's, has been discovered embedded WITHIN the equations of superstring theory!

Why does nature have this? What errors does it need to correct? What is an 'error' for nature? More importantly what is the explanation for this freakish discovery? Your guess is as good as mine.





Quoting 235. sar2401:

Not faked by the Greeks but by some school kids trying to make a name for themselves. I obviously don't know what's true but those videos are never posted on YouTube in real time, They are reviewed and used as training tools for future rescues. Any service member posting this to YouTube in real time is going to be in big trouble. As I said before, I've never seen a rescue video almost obscured by a watermark so large as to cover up most of the video. I don't really know, but it looks fake to me.


Well, what I could find out: The watermark doesn't show the logo of the coast guard but of the Greek General Staff of National Defense (here another website in English), and the videos obviously were published by this source, though as unllsted videos (at least this applies to the first one; unlisted videos won't show up by youtube search). Greek comments on youtube (though proud of the helpful contribution of their army) discuss why only one of their military Puma helicopters was applied to this SAR operation, and it is said that out of the total number of 12, owned by the Greek military, only three would be operable. (Same thing with the helis of the German army, btw, as the German public was shocked to learn some weeks earlier, lol.).
The second video was shared on defenceline.gr - a military news site - and obviously copied by others (and spread elsewhere in the news).
But okay, enough about this; I have to go to bed anyway, so good night folks ...

Edit: I've just read in German news that the Greek minister of defense had offered the assignment of a second Super Puma Helicopter but the Italians in charge were slow to respond, he complained ...
Quoting 258. washingtonian115:




Darn it, Washi - been trying to eat relatively healthy...but that looks GOOD. Alas, no hotdogs in the house, so I'll have to settle for a burger, slathered in mustard, of course
Quoting 256. Patrap:



Hey, we should do dat fer Cancer maybe?

Maybe up yer definition of a God too.


I'm kinda partial to Greek God Bacchus myself.

: P


that's why I didn't capitalize the g

:)
Quoting 260. yoboi:

I will settle for scientist getting a 3-5 day forecast correct......Until then it's like using a dartboard.......


Do you still resort to using a dartboard? :)
Here's the New Year's Eve temperature anomaly forecast from the GFS... going to be a chilly one for most, not bitterly cold for the most part but below average.

It's going to be a bone-chilling morning across the North Plains, especially the Dakotas, tomorrow...

For West Palm Beach...Nothing eventful on the horizon...

Bacchus a greek god? 
Maybe they got  their info from the Krewe of Bacchus 
Google gets 21,500,000 results in .34 seconds
Quoting 268. nymore:

Bacchus a greek god? 
Maybe they got  their info from the Krewe of Bacchus 
Google gets 21,500,000 results in .34 seconds

Sure he was, but known to the Greeks as Dionysus, amongst many other names.
Quoting 261. LAbonbon:



Darn it, Washi - been trying to eat relatively healthy...but that looks GOOD. Alas, no hotdogs in the house, so I'll have to settle for a burger, slathered in mustard, of course


There is always the option of smuggling. That is how I get beef into my house, a running family joke.

Those do look good.
Quoting 254. opal92nwf:


If I understood it right, the article was more analyzing a social issue, and describing how people might react to interpretation of this whole issue.


Nah, the article was repeating denier talking points...nothing new under the sun here how many times do we really need the uneducated or purposefully deceitful to say the same "blah blah blah no warming in "x" years, the science is wrong, this guy knows what he's talking about, but not the active researchers, there is money (OMG!11!) in research, and scientists want grants!" Last time a checked, that was all a steaming pile of overused denier memes designed to do anything but get people to think for themselves...

Quoting 253. opal92nwf:


It does qualify as a god in the sense of someone going to it as much as they would religion. Devoting all their time to studying, reading about, advocating....


Well with that loose definition we could include fry cook at the Krusty Krab as a religious experience. What next, family as religion? Friends? That crappy 9-5 to make ends meet? Besides...religion doesn't need to be advocated for, some religions specifically do not prosthelytize...

I stand by my point, you've created a broad catch all definition that is in itself a straw man to support your assertion. Tautological.
Quoting 270. georgevandenberghe:



There is always the option of smuggling. That is how I get beef into my house, a running family joke.

Those do look good.


Now that's funny. Beef is allowed in the house, but processed meats...not so much.

I 'settled' for a cheddar burger w/ mushrooms, tomato, and lots of mustard...hold the bun :D
Quoting 270. georgevandenberghe:



There is always the option of smuggling. That is how I get beef into my house, a running family joke.

Those do look good.


I have it FedEx'd in as er, "colostomy supplies".


I always get to sign for it.


Then off to the Park with the Hibachi in tow.

The Dog she be like..... yeah, we jus gonna go for a lil walk now.

Be back in 90.
Quoting 261. LAbonbon:



Darn it, Washi - been trying to eat relatively healthy...but that looks GOOD. Alas, no hotdogs in the house, so I'll have to settle for a burger, slathered in mustard, of course
Lol I haven't had a burger or a hotdog in months.Even on 4th of July.
Kate goes through a new process of rapid intensification and is a major tropical cyclone again.. This is an another peak of the intensity. Winds right now is reaching 120 mph/105 knots.

Quoting barbamz:


Well, what I could find out: The watermark doesn't show the logo of the coast guard but of the Greek General Staff of National Defense (here another website in English), and the videos obviously were published by this source, though as unllsted videos (at least this applies to the first one; unlisted videos won't show up by youtube search). Greek comments on youtube discuss why only one of their military Puma helicopters was applied to this SAR operation, and it is said that out of the total number of 12, owned by the Greek military, only three would be operable. (Same thing with the helis of the German army, btw, as the German public was shocked to learn some weeks earlier, lol.).
The second video was shared on defenceline.gr - a military news site - and obviously copied by others (and spread elsewhere in the news).
But okay, enough about this; I have to go to bed anyway, so good night folks ...
Like I said, I don't really have authoritative information, just my gut feeling. There has been a real scandal among the Greek and Italian governments when it comes to availability of SAR helicopters. The Greek Coast Guard has a theoretical strength of 12 Super Pumas but only one is in operational condition. Search and rescue work is hard on helicopters., especially with all the training involved. The rule of thumb is that you need four helicopters in inventory for one to be immediately available for rescue work. Unfortunately, the economic situation is Greece has not allowed even that ratio to be maintained. The Italian Coast Guard has 14 helicopters on inventory but 8 are old AB412's and only 4 are more modern AW319, and the Italians have done a good job of maintaining 50% availability but they are in desperate need of replacement.

The Germans are a whole different thing. The German Maritime Search and Rescue Association (DGzRS) is primarily a voluntary maritime SAR agency with over 60 vessels, all of which were purchased with donations by the German people. They are one of the premiere maritime rescue agencies in the world, especially for one that's not a part of the national armed forces. The German Air Force and Navy are the only two services allowed to fly SAR helicopters, and the Navy is the only one allowed to fly helicopters that are primarily for maritime rescue. The Germans do not, of course, have a seacoast on the Adriatic, but the DGzRS has spend time training with the Italian and Greek coast guards in how effect rescues with no helicopters in rough seas. The German Navy SAR helicopters are all very old. All 22 of the British built German owned Sea Lynx helicopters were grounded in September due to fuselage tears. This is bad enough, but the Lynxes are primarily frigate born antisubmarine helicopters. The German Navy has a theoretical strength of 21 Sea King SAR helicopters, and they were fine in their day, but they are now bordering on ancient. Their availability is generally less that 25%. The Navy was supposed to take delivery on 18 new NIH-90 SAR helicopters but drive train problems led to a crash in Afghanistan,and only 8 have been delivered, but they have been grounded from time to time as more problems have cropped up. Until these are solved, the old Sea Kings have to soldier on. I had the chance to work with them in the Helgoland Bight for a week, and I learned a lot from them about vessel to vessel rescue in rough seas. One of the guys made his own sausages and one made his own beer, so we were well fed! :-)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Here's the New Year's Eve temperature anomaly forecast from the GFS... going to be a chilly one for most, not bitterly cold for the most part but below average.

Going to be almost on the dot average down here in SE AL. High of about 58 and low of of about 35, a couple of degrees above average. It's been a very warm December so far. I fear we may pay for that toward the end of next week, with more warm weather but a lot more unstable air.
Good evening class!
An upper-end EF3 tornado impacted the southeastern sections of Columbia, Mississippi last Tuesday. Here's video from a guy who pulled out his phone at his business:

Link
Quoting Naga5000:


Well with that loose definition we could include fry cook at the Krusty Krab as a religious experience.
Hey! A good cook at the Kusty Krab might not really be god but, on nights when he's really on his game, he's pretty darn close. :-)
Winter Storm Warning is forecast for me here in Warner Springs,CA. 6-12 inches of snow possible above 3,000 feet. I will believe it when I see it.


Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
530 PM PST MON DEC 29 2014

UPDATED IMPACTS SECTION

...LOW ELEVATION SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

..A VERY COLD STORM ORIGINATING FROM CANADA WILL BRING LOW
ELEVATION SNOW TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND
2000 FEET...AND MAY FALL AS LOW AS 1000 FEET IS SOME AREAS. HEAVY
SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS.
SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN YUCAIPA AND BEAUMONT IN THE INLAND
EMPIRE...AND NEAR ALPINE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

CAZ048-050-055>058-060>062-301300-
/O.CON.KSGX.WS.W.0004.141231T0000Z-150101T0000Z/
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...BEAUMONT...YUCAIPA...
POTRERO...ANGELUS OAKS...BALDWIN LAKE...BARTON FLATS...
BIG BEAR CITY...BIG BEAR LAKE...CRESTLINE...FAWNSKIN...
FOREST FALLS...I-15 AT CAJON SUMMIT...I-15 AT 3500 FEET...
LAKE ARROWHEAD...MOUNT BALDY...MOUNTAIN HOME VILLAGE...OAK GLEN...
PHELAN...RUNNING SPRINGS...TWIN PEAKS...WRIGHTWOOD...AGUANGA...
ANZA...GARNER VALLEY...IDYLLWILD...MOUNTAIN CENTER...PINE COVE...
PINYON PINES...VISTA GRANDE...CASE SPRINGS...
ORTEGA HIGHWAY AT 2600 FEET...BOULEVARD...CAMERON...CAMPO...
CUYAMACA...DESCANSO...JULIAN...LAKE HENSHAW...MORENA VILLAGE...
MOUNT LAGUNA...OAK GROVE...PINE HILLS...PINE VALLEY...RANCHITA...
SANTA YSABEL...WARNER SPRINGS...ADELANTO...APPLE VALLEY...
EL MIRAGE...HELENDALE...HESPERIA...LUCERNE VALLEY...VICTORVILLE...
WHITEWATER
530 PM PST MON DEC 29 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO
4 PM PST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 2000 FEET...

A WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 2000 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDED: ALL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ABOVE 2000 FEET.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND THE SAN DIEGO
VALLEYS. THE LOWER DESERT FOOTHILLS INCLUDING WHITEWATER AT THE
NORTHERN END OF THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

* LOCATIONS NOT INCLUDED: PALM SPRINGS...INDIO...RANCHO
MIRAGE...COACHELLA...THERMAL...BORREGO SPRINGS AND OCOTILLO
WELLS.

* SNOW LEVELS...FALLING FROM AROUND 4500 FEET IN THE NORTH AND
6000 FEET IN THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TO BETWEEN 2000
AND 2500 FEET OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 1000
FEET.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3000
FEET WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ABOVE 5000 FEET. 1 TO 5 INCHES IN
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. 2 TO 7 INCHES IN THE HIGH DESERT.

* TEMPERATURES...VERY COLD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS....AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S IN THE HIGH
DESERT. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WIND
CHILL VALUES MAY FALL BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS.

* WINDS...OVER THE HIGH DESERTS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH TUESDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...WEST TO
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. IN THE INLAND
EMPIRE...GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL RESULT IN
UNUSUALLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO BELOW ONE-HALF MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW.

* IMPACTS...MAJOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO SNOW AND
ICE. DELAYS OR CLOSURES ARE LIKELY. THE MAJOR TRAVEL CORRIDORS
WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDING I-15 IN THE CAJON PASS AND I-8
THROUGH THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON
I-10 THROUGH THE SAN GORGONIO PASS. MANY STATE AND COUNTY ROADS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL BE SNOW AND ICE COVERED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...EXTRA CLOTHES OR BLANKETS...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN
CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
East Haven, Connecticut 37 °F Mostly Cloudy Next 6 Hours date december 29 2014 to december 30 2014
Mostly clear with temperatures steady in the low 30s. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.
Very mild. 64/73 0.08" with periods of light rain. Cold front located about 30 miles from me but very weak. Light rain now but radar looks unimpressive.
If and is a big if right now if El Nino will be officially declared,it would be a modoki one as Nino 1+2 sinks to La Nina Threshold.

Quoting 284. Tropicsweatherpr:

If and is a big if right now if El Nino will be officially declared,it would be a modoki one as Nino 1+2 sinks to La Nina Threshold.




I'm praying for a wet 2015!!!

2013 and 2014 were below average....
Quoting 284. Tropicsweatherpr:

If and is a big if right now if El Nino will be officially declared,it would be a modoki one as Nino 1+2 sinks to La Nina Threshold.




here we go again maybe no El Nino for now!! everytime we think el nino come is coming its not happern like last summer
Ann Arbor, Michigan 23 °F Clear very cold weather tonight for Michigan
Tropical Cyclone Kate

Tropical Cyclone Kate
Last Updated Dec 29, 2014 00 GMT
Location -16.4N 90.6E Movement SW
Wind 120 MPH
Quoting 285. CaribBoy:



I'm praying for a wet 2015!!!

2013 and 2014 were below average....


A lot of us are praying you get a wet 2015 :)

Goodnight, WU - keep warm you guys in wintry areas!
Quoting 285. CaribBoy:



I'm praying for a wet 2015!!!

2013 and 2014 were below average....


Me to! Wet season so far in California has been pretty good. Need more snow in Sierras! Possibility of some more storms undercutting the NE Pacific ridge and coming into California in about 10 days.......a crapshoot at best that far out in time, but I am hopeful. BTW......We have $856.14 in the rain fund!
Quoting 284. Tropicsweatherpr:

If and is a big if right now if El Nino will be officially declared,it would be a modoki one as Nino 1+2 sinks to La Nina Threshold.




I think there is some credence to that. I think the Modoki El Nino helps set up the Pineapple Express storms in to the West Coast. I saw the PW plume during those huge early December storms came from the central Pacific Ocean where them warm waters are helping with increased convection and it feeds into California at times as the Pineapple Express.
Quoting 289. LAbonbon:



A lot of us are praying you get a wet 2015 :)

Goodnight, WU - keep warm you guys in wintry areas!


You to! Been kinda chilly in the AM's round these parts. Was 27 yesterday morning.
293. DDR
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
If and is a big if right now if El Nino will be officially declared,it would be a modoki one as Nino 1 2 sinks to La Nina Threshold.


Good post Tropics i agree,no el nino theres too much rain here,we are greatly affected by the swings in enso,right now were getting more rain than anything else.
Quoting 284. Tropicsweatherpr:

If and is a big if right now if El Nino will be officially declared,it would be a modoki one as Nino 1+2 sinks to La Nina Threshold.



It would be pretty ridiculous for NOAA to declare an El Nino now. The atmosphere was in a very El Nino-like state from the start of summer until the middle portion of this month. Since that time, the atmosphere has become more akin to what one would expect during a cool Neutral/La Nina.

WSI's Atmospheric ENSO Index documents this change well:



Does that mean we're going to see a La Nina? No. It just means the base state is more similar to a La Nina than to an El Nino.
Quoting 288. hurricanes2018:

Tropical Cyclone Kate

Tropical Cyclone Kate
Last Updated Dec 29, 2014 00 GMT
Location -16.4N 90.6E Movement SW
Wind 120 MPH


Kate reintensified? I suppose it's a fish storm.
Quoting 285. CaribBoy:



I'm praying for a wet 2015!!!

2013 and 2014 were below average....
You got a TC this year! Why are you complaining?
Jangmi had recently crossed Cebu and Negros island in the Visayas region of the Philippines

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM JANGMI (1423)
9:00 AM JST December 30 2014
===================================
Within The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Jangmi (998 hPa) located at 10.1N 123.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 9.2N 120.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea
48 HRS: 8.6N 116.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 7.3N 112.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY FOUR (04U)
8:54 AM WST December 30 2014
=====================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category Four (953 hPa) located at 16.4S 90.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 17.7S 89.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 18.9S 87.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 21.5S 83.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 24.1S 80.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
==================
Kate was located using microwave and enhanced infrared imagery and given the microwave fixes and the eye apparent in enhanced infrared under low to moderate shear [around 10 knots] the confidence in the location is good.

Multiple DTs of 5.5 to 6.0 were obtained over the period 1930 to 2230 using Meteosat7 imagery. Trend is assessed as D to D over this period, giving a MET of 5 to 5.5. FT is set to 5.5. This is in good agreement with SATCON which estimates intensity at 100 knots [1-min]. ADT has intensity at 110 knots 1-min but SATCON is 100 knots [1-min] in good agreement with subjective Dvorak. Final intensity estimate is 90 knots 10-min.

The system intensified during the last six hours, possibly in response to a warmer patch of water. However it is unlikely to be able to sustain this intensity for long as it moves further south into cooler waters and the shear begins to increase as it is affected by the mid latitude westerlies and possibly by entrainment of dry air.

Wind radii at analysis are based on scatterometry and microwave images and are in close agreement with the MTCSWA analysis. Gale radii expected to become asymetric to the south within 48 hours as the system interacts with a high to the south.

Due to the system about to cross west of the 90E longitude, This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Bulletin. The next bulletin will be issued at 6:00AM UTC by RSMC Reunion.
The volcano that is near the capitol of Tonga in erupting again. It's the one that created an island in 2009.
Ferry evacuation was completed with ~427 saved of the supposed 478 on the manifest...the captain was the last to depart. 10 have been found dead. Dozens missing. It was noted there is also some people rescued that weren't on the manifest.. Investigations are underway..
Kate got her eye back.. meteosat7 pass.
00z models showing yet another GLC the week of the 5th. Is winter cancelled???
Quoting 287. hurricanes2018:

Ann Arbor, Michigan 23 °F Clear very cold weather tonight for Michigan


I was near there around Christmas 2008 and the thermometer at Michigan State read 25F at 3PM, which seemed fairly normal. Everybody was walking around wearing coats and going about their business. Seems like you might finally be getting more normal temperatures after a period of abnormal warmth. I wish it was chilly here. Boring, muggy weather here in FL.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
An upper-end EF3 tornado impacted the southeastern sections of Columbia, Mississippi last Tuesday. Here's video from a guy who pulled out his phone at his business:

Link
More tornado screamers until the reality hit this wasn't just another amusement park thrill ride.....
in Sulu Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Jangmi (998 hPa) located at 10.2N 121.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 9.4N 118.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea
48 HRS: 8.4N 115.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 6.8N 110.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE KATE (04-20142015)
10:00 AM RET December 30 2014
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Kate (947 hPa) located at 17.0S 89.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 130 knots The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
45 NM from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center. extending up to 85 NM in the northeast quadrant, up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 17.9S 88.4E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS 19.3S 86.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS 22.0S 81.9E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
72 HRS 24.8S 79.0E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
====================
The current position is based on fix from MET7 and FY2E.

The current intensity is based on subjective Dvorak analysis with a 3 hour DT average topping at 5.8 at 04z. Good agreement with other Dvorak assessment from PGTW and KNES (5.5 at 0530z). ADT is at 110 kt (1 min wind) at 06z in good agreement with the current intensity estimate.

Latest microwave imagery from this morning suggest that the inner core has begun to weaken ... precursor signs of the weakening trend.

The system is now south of the upper level ridge within a less and less favorable environment with increasing north to northwesterly shear and cool sea surface temperatures south of 18.0S. A rapid weakening trend is therefore anticipated for the next 24 hours.

The system should loose its main convective mass near 20s and complete its extratropical transition later this week.


HURRICANE SCORECARD 2014

The results are in.
exactly HALF of the 112 members listed on my chart are winners!
56 won, there are few who won this year and last year's forecast.

I will let you know later today more in detail
HURRICANE SEASON 2013
2013 Winners - some are included in 2014's also




I will upload 2014's later today.
The Broadcast Year in Review: 2014 ~ When the BBC weather forecast goes wrong: Bloopers & funny incidents


Good morning. Decent amounts of snowfall expected in the Central Mediterranean area and the Balkans. In eastern parts Italy they are due to a sort of lake effect with cold winds from the backside of "Hiltrud" blowing from northeastern directions over the still quite warm Adriatic Sea:



Cold airmass bubble over Europe including Spain can clearly be spotted by the orange color:



Click for the loop.
Snow videos from Odessa, Southern Ukraine, which took a direct hit from "Hiltrud" yesterday:





Quoting 302. Drakoen:

00z models showing yet another GLC the week of the 5th. Is winter cancelled???
What is GLC?
Philippine storm death toll jumps to 30
POSTED: 30 Dec 2014 13:23, UPDATED: 30 Dec 2014 18:32
MANILA: At least 30 people were killed in landslides and flash floods as tropical storm Jangmi slowly crossed the southern and central Philippines, dumping heavy rain for a second day on Tuesday (Dec 30), officials said.
Rivers burst their banks and submerged villages in floods up to "neck-deep" while hillsides crashed onto homes and highways, officials said.
Some residents in vulnerable areas ignored evacuation warnings, Stephany Uy-Tan, mayor of the town of Catbalogan in Samar province, told DZMM radio. "The rains were really strong and people thought the storm won't be too strong based on the news," she said.
Twelve people were killed after a landslide buried two vans on a mountainside highway in Catbalogan, she said. "Rescuers report hearing voices from the rubble," she said.
Jangmi, which was forecast to bring up to 15 millimetres (0.6 inches) of rain per hour, barrelled through fishing and tourist areas on Tuesday, a day after it smashed into the mountainous southeastern region on Mindanao island.
Thousands were evacuated ahead of the storm's arrival, with most expected to be sent home later Tuesday as floodwaters start to recede, officials said. Jangmi's 65-kilometre (40-mile) per hour wind gusts were weak compared to the last storm to traverse the central region earlier this month, Hagupit, which had winds of up to 210 kilometres per hour. ...



Current Jangmi loop.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
What is GLC?


Gross Looking Cyclone?
Great Looking Cyclone?
Gratifyingly Large Cyclone?

or....

Great Lakes Cutter, a storm that lifts north across the western Great Lakes?
Albanian seamen die in Norman Atlantic ferry recovery
BBC, 30 December 2014 Last updated at 11:50 GMT
Two Albanian seamen have been killed on a tugboat while towing the fire-stricken Norman Atlantic ferry.
Both men died after a connecting cable between the vessels snapped on Tuesday morning after it became entangled in a propeller, Albanian officials say. ...


So many bad news, unfortunately. Guess I don't have to provide news that they finally found the missing plane from AirAsia. Be cautious, some graphic photos of bodies are shown in certain reports in the internet; bye for now.
Debris found is from AirAsia plane. Also some bodies were found.

Link


Quoting 317. Tropicsweatherpr:

Debris found is from AirAsia plane. Also some bodies were found.


Looks like a rainy rest of the week here in C FL. I have to say I was doubting the Euro here but the Euro was dead on as no other model showed this set up across C FL today as it appears a front will stall overhead giving us showery conditions from now thru Friday then it gets very hot this weekend maybe some upper 80's with heat indices in the mid 90's.


CFSv2 & Euro still aren't backing down and its easy to see why as I have been saying for several weeks now because look at this 3rd warm pool organizing as it looks very large.


NWS San Diego Video: Winter Storm for Southern California Dec. 30-31, 2014


Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
CYCLONE TROPICAL KATE (04-20142015)
16:00 PM RET December 30 2014
=========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Kate (960 hPa) located at 17.8S 89.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
45 NM from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 85 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.5/W1.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 19.0S 87.3E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS 20.4S 85.1E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS 22.9S 81.1E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
72 HRS 25.6S 79.3E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
====================
The current position is based on microwave imagery (1041z) and GEOSTAT imagery from MET7 and FY2E.

The system has lost its eye pattern on enhanced infrared since 1030z for an embedded center pattern. The current Dvorak analysis holds on the adjusted met (pattern number) and is in good agreement with other agencies estimates.

The system is moving in a general southwestwards direction towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge near 80.0E on the northwestern edge of the mid level highs located to its southeast. The system is now south of the upper level ridge within a less and less favorable environment with increasing north to northwesterly shear and cool sea surface temperatures south of 18.0S. A rapid weakening trend is therefore anticipated for the next 24 hours.

The system should loose its main convective mass near 20s and complete its extratropical transition later this week.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM JANGMI (1423)
21:00 PM JST December 30 2014
===================================
in Sulu Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Jangmi (998 hPa) located at 9.9N 121.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 9.0N 118.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea
48 HRS: 7.9N 114.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 6.5N 110.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
TROPICAL STORM SENIANG
5:00 PM PhST December 30 2014
=============================
Tropical Storm "SENIANG"has accelerated and is now moving towards Cuyo Island

Signal Warnings
============

Signal Warning #2

These areas will have stormy weather with heavy to intense rains. Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Luzon region
-------------
1. Cuyo Island
2. Palawan

Visayas region
--------------
1. Guimaras
2. Southern Antique
3. Southern Iloilo

Signal Warning #1

These areas will have moderate to heavy rains with occasional gusty winds. Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Luzon region
-------------
1. Calamian Group of Islands

Visayas region
--------------
1. Negros Occidental
2. Aklan
3. Capiz
4. Rest of Iloilo
5. Rest of Antique

Additional Information
======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of the provinces with PWS#2 and PWS#1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Ocean waves may reach up to 5 meters.

Fisherfolks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and over the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao.

Public Storm Warning signals elsewhere are now lifted.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11PM today.



stop going down!!!
culling sharks always has been hot topic. on this pt i believe its a choice between man or beast. no doubt man needs the oceans resources.
329. jpsb
And the next one, obviously at least partly weather related too :-( SAR people don't get a break in these waters right now ...

Distress call from ship with 600 passengers because of 'armed men' on board near Corfu
Independent, Tuesday 30 December 2014
A distress call has been issued from a cargo ship believed to be carrying hundreds of people off the coast of Corfu, amid fears armed men are on board.
A passenger is believed to have called an emergency number for help from their mobile. Official distress calls are usually made from a ship radio.
The alarm was raised because of suspected armed people on board, Greek state television reported, claiming that "illegal immigrants" were on the ship.
Officials said a Greek frigate and a navy helicopter were heading to help the Moldovan-flagged Blue Sky M, which is believed to be carrying about 600 migrants.
It was sailing in poor conditions near the island of Othonoi, north-west of Corfu when the call was made. ...
The incident comes two days after a Greek passenger ferry caught fire in the same area, leading to a massive rescue operation by Italian and Greek coastguard and military officials.
A winter weather advisory has been posted for Las Vegas in anticipation of accumulating snow, even to the valley floor, including the famous Las Vegas Strip.

Winter storm watches and warnings have also been posted for other parts of the Southwest, including the canyonlands of southern Utah, Grand Canyon National Park, higher elevations to the north and east of Phoenix and Tucson, the Mojave Desert floor and higher elevations of Southern California.

This arctic air mass will supply the necessary frigid temperatures for snow, and the accompanying very strong area of high pressure from Canada will help force the cold air through multiple mountain ranges all the way down into the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, energy in the upper atmosphere will provide the necessary lift to squeeze out moderate to heavy snowfall over a large area.



wow!!
Snow on the Desert Floor
A strong jet-stream disturbance in the upper atmosphere is plunging south into the Desert Southwest.

As the disturbance reaches the Southwest it is meeting up with more arctic air arriving from the north and northeast and will begin to ingest some additional moist air as well.

By later Tuesday, snow should break out over the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains of Southern California and even into the adjacent high deserts, including Barstow, California. Additional light snow will fall over the canyonlands of southern Utah and high country of Colorado.

The storm will then turn east as it intensifies and gathers moisture Wednesday, with intensifying snow for much of Arizona's higher elevations and southern Utah, spreading into southwest Colorado and parts of northern New Mexico through early Thursday, New Year's Day. Locally over a foot of snow may fall in parts of northern Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado and the mountains of Southern California.
Quoting 296. Gearsts:

You got a TC this year! Why are you complaining?



LOL xD

And of course not only I want more rain for 2015 but also another tropical cyclone (strong TS or cat1) !!
Frona: A Midwest/East Threat?
Winter Storm Frona (froh-na; Greek, short for Sofronia; related to the word for wise) may have a final chapter.

Our latest forecast guidance has not honed in on a consistent forecast yet, however, the potential exists for Frona to combine with a reinforcing arctic front diving into the northern Plains to spin up a quick-moving snowstorm this weekend in parts of the Midwest and interior Northeast.
Quoting 319. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like a rainy rest of the week here in C FL. I have to say I was doubting the Euro here but the Euro was dead on as no other model showed this set up across C FL today as it appears a front will stall overhead giving us showery conditions from now thru Friday then it gets very hot this weekend maybe some upper 80's with heat indices in the mid 90's.





Yeah, so much for that Artic blast out West reaching the South East!
Quoting barbamz:
And the next one, obviously at least partly weather related too :-( SAR people don't get a break in these waters right now ...

Distress call from ship with 600 passengers because of 'armed men' on board near Corfu
Independent, Tuesday 30 December 2014
A distress call has been issued from a cargo ship believed to be carrying hundreds of people off the coast of Corfu, amid fears armed men are on board.
A passenger is believed to have called an emergency number for help from their mobile. Official distress calls are usually made from a ship radio.
The alarm was raised because of suspected armed people on board, Greek state television reported, claiming that "illegal immigrants" were on the ship.
Officials said a Greek frigate and a navy helicopter were heading to help the Moldovan-flagged Blue Sky M, which is believed to be carrying about 600 migrants.
It was sailing in poor conditions near the island of Othonoi, north-west of Corfu when the call was made. ...
The incident comes two days after a Greek passenger ferry caught fire in the same area, leading to a massive rescue operation by Italian and Greek coastguard and military officials.
Now that's a strange one. The vessel is the Blue Sky M. It's registered out of Moldova and it's a real junker, built in 1976.



The Greek Navy is sending a helicopter armed frigate to investigate. There apparently hasn't been an official distress signal, either by radio or satellite. The only signal was sent by "passenger" on board using a cell phone, reporting "armed men" on board. If there are between 600-700 persons on board, that must be one really crowded ship. Moldovan ships are known to engage in illegal immigrant smuggling using abandoned ports in Croatia. First time I've heard of one self reporting armed men on board though.
one of the things i enjoy on the blogs is how people use erroneous information to prove try to prove their positions...it's safe...it's harmless...and it's fun to watch them crash and burn,.......

if you post the cfsv2........and the euro means...they're not anything alike....of course...the means is not a part of the free euro set of charts except in it's thumbnail view.....through a friend i now have acess to the means...but will not...means i'm not allowed...to reproduce it here.....if you would like....you can see the thumbnail here....and then you can base your own conclusion...is it like the cfsv2


Quoting 69Viking:


Yeah, so much for that Artic blast out West reaching the South East!
Indeed. I'm more concerned about a low pushing off the Gulf Saturday and Saturday night with temperatures in the 70's and dewpoints in the high 60's Could be a good setup for severe weather along the Gulf coast from TX to the Panhandle. It doesn't look like enough instability will push into central Florida next week but the warm weather will continue.
Quoting 339. ricderr:

one of the things i enjoy on the blogs is how people use erroneous information to prove try to prove their positions...it's safe...it's harmless...and it's fun to watch them crash and burn,.......

if you post the cfsv2........and the euro means...they're not anything alike....of course...the means is not a part of the free euro set of charts except in it's thumbnail view.....through a friend i now have acess to the means...but will not...means i'm not allowed...to reproduce it here.....if you would like....you can see the thumbnail here....and then you can base your own conclusion...is it like the cfsv2





It sure doesn't feel like El Nino here in Central Fl. December has been pretty much normal with just one day of rain (some lighter amounts today). We're not getting hammered with severe weather etc..... Temps have been above normal for the month. Basically the way I like it.
Quoting ricderr:
one of the things i enjoy on the blogs is how people use erroneous information to prove try to prove their positions...it's safe...it's harmless...and it's fun to watch them crash and burn,.......

if you post the cfsv2........and the euro means...they're not anything alike....of course...the means is not a part of the free euro set of charts except in it's thumbnail view.....through a friend i now have acess to the means...but will not...means i'm not allowed...to reproduce it here.....if you would like....you can see the thumbnail here....and then you can base your own conclusion...is it like the cfsv2



All I want is someone to let me know when some variation of El Nino will start, how strong it might be, and how long it might last. Really, this whole El Nino thing has been going back and forth for a year now, and the whole thing is getting really tiresome, especially when some people claim to know the exact answer...for the last year now.
Good Morning. Beautiful morning in the Florida Big Bend in the sirrus free dry slot at the moment:

Quoting 319. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like a rainy rest of the week here in C FL. I have to say I was doubting the Euro here but the Euro was dead on as no other model showed this set up across C FL today as it appears a front will stall overhead giving us showery conditions from now thru Friday then it gets very hot this weekend maybe some upper 80's with heat indices in the mid 90's.

Well I guess you better get your pals on board over in Melbourne 'cause I'm not seeing any upper 80's with heat indices in the mid 90's.

Today A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 74. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming north in the afternoon.
Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. North northeast wind around 10 mph.
New Year's Day Partly sunny, with a high near 73. North northeast wind around 5 mph.
Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. East wind around 5 mph.
Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 81. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Quoting 342. sar2401:


All I want is someone to let me know when some variation of El Nino will start, how strong it might be, and how long it might last. Really, this whole El Nino thing has been going back and forth for a year now, and the whole thing is getting really tiresome, especially when some people claim to know the exact answer...for the last year now.


Tell me about it.
346. yoboi
Quoting 329. jpsb:





Newly released research, primarily from NASA and the GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences, indicates that melting of selective Greenland Glaciers is related to geologically induced heat flow, and not manmade atmospheric global warming.

Link
So what is going on with this weekend storm. Im in Lebanon PA and every few hours they say snow then rain. Then snow and rain, we are up here till January 5th and we want some snow. Will be get some?
Forecast for the area.
It sure doesn't feel like El Nino here in Central Fl. December has been pretty much normal with just one day of rain (some lighter amounts today). We're not getting hammered with severe weather etc..... Temps have been above normal for the month. Basically the way I like it.


nope.....and if you want to trust the cfsv2 where it is most accurate....short range.....january will act more la ninaish...than nino
Quoting 319. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like a rainy rest of the week here in C FL. I have to say I was doubting the Euro here but the Euro was dead on as no other model showed this set up across C FL today as it appears a front will stall overhead giving us showery conditions from now thru Friday then it gets very hot this weekend maybe some upper 80's with heat indices in the mid 90's.

NASA's GEOS-5 has been calling for it. The heavier rain not til 42hrs but had a little rain & that front across CFL today..


Have to agree on the warm weekend ahead..

Quoting luvtogolf:
Forecast for the area.


We have a 30% chance of rain today and tonight. 20% tomorrow.
If it rains it will be a miracle.

We've only got today and tomorrow to add some precipitation to the yearly total.

This year so far 42.32 "
Normal annual precipitation 55.81 "
Quoting capeflorida:
Link


There are people claiming to be family members sending what they say are text messages claiming the aircraft landed safely on the sea surface and the passengers have all survived. Given the weather conditions and the radar data, this crash was not survivable, and there's no way a text message could have been sent from the crash site, since it's much too far from the nearest cell tower. Please don't make it any harder on these families by reposting these false messages.
All I want is someone to let me know when some variation of El Nino will start, how strong it might be, and how long it might last. Really, this whole El Nino thing has been going back and forth for a year now, and the whole thing is getting really tiresome, especially when some people claim to know the exact answer...for the last year now.


well...i don't claim to know the exact answer...but i can tell when bs smells like bs......doesn't take an expert to tell that smell......as for your question though.....it could be said we're in the midst of el nino now.....just that there's so much uncertainty...that the experts....who have the crux of being responsible in their forecasting...something that we don't....will not declare it to be so.....and it might not last long enough to meet the requirments.....couple that with the fact....not all atmospheric conditions are acting el ninoish.....as luv said...florida didn't act el ninoish in december.....however..austrailia did....i'm wondering two things.....will the effects of el nino be different in a warming climate....and....are the experts truly up to speed on expected conditions of a weak event
Quoting tampahurricane:
So what is going on with this weekend storm. Im in Lebanon PA and every few hours they say snow then rain. Then snow and rain, we are up here till January 5th and we want some snow. Will be get some?
Just about a zero chance. It will be party cloudy and cold until Saturday and Sunday. That's the only chance for precipitations but it looks like the highs will be near 40 and the lows in the high 30's.. By Monday, the high will be back to 30 and low down to about 15 but no precipitation at all. Sorry, looks like bad luck for snow on your trip. :-(
Quoting 346. yoboi:




Newly released research, primarily from NASA and the GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences, indicates that melting of selective Greenland Glaciers is related to geologically induced heat flow, and not manmade atmospheric global warming.

Link


That article was a good read and research based (amazing facts with the underground fresh water pools). However, it does not debunk the impacts of GW/Climate Change on the Northern latitudes. It basically shows that there are forces underground/thermal at work on the Greenland sheet as well and in addition to what is happening above ground such a soot deposit "darkening" which absorbs more heat and the documented permafrost melt and sinking in many areas (particularly in Alaska). It's a complex combination of forces, whether natural or man made, which are causing significant changes to the climate and topography in the higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere which we can study and document with our modern scientific tools.

As to the specific issue noted in this article (thermal heating in parts of the Greenland ice sheet), this could certainly be a huge factor in contributing to overall sea level rise in the long term.
Quoting ricderr:
All I want is someone to let me know when some variation of El Nino will start, how strong it might be, and how long it might last. Really, this whole El Nino thing has been going back and forth for a year now, and the whole thing is getting really tiresome, especially when some people claim to know the exact answer...for the last year now.


well...i don't claim to know the exact answer...but i can tell when bs smells like bs......doesn't take an expert to tell that smell......as for your question though.....it could be said we're in the midst of el nino now.....just that there's so much uncertainty...that the experts....who have the crux of being responsible in their forecasting...something that we don't....will not declare it to be so.....and it might not last long enough to meet the requirments.....couple that with the fact....not all atmospheric conditions are acting el ninoish.....as luv said...florida didn't act el ninoish in december.....however..austrailia did....i'm wondering two things.....will the effects of el nino be different in a warming climate....and....are the experts truly up to speed on expected conditions of a weak event
Here's what I'm wondering. Can Australia and central Asia have El Nino while we have nothing of the sort? El Nino is supposed to a global phenomena. Is it really? Have we only looked for global Nino/Nina and missed what were just local conditions? I have no idea if that's true, but we certainly are seeing classic El Nino condition in some areas and not in others.
There are people claiming to be family members sending what they say are text messages claiming the aircraft landed safely on the sea surface and the passengers have all survived. Given the weather conditions and the radar data, this crash was not survivable, and there's no way a text message could have been sent from the crash site, since it's much too far from the nearest cell tower. Please don't make it any harder on these families by reposting these false messages.

given the leaked photos of dead bodies floating in the sea and of the wreckage found....makes it hard to believe also....
Kiribati and Apia will be the first island nations to enter 2015 in 18 hours.
This is how they celebrate the New Year in Kiribati.
Quoting 346. yoboi:




Newly released research, primarily from NASA and the GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences, indicates that melting of selective Greenland Glaciers is related to geologically induced heat flow, and not manmade atmospheric global warming.

Link


Here are the links to the actual research:

Hidden Movements of Greenland Ice Sheet, Runoff Revealed

Heat flux variations beneath central Greenland’s ice due to anomalously thin lithosphere

The first is from NASA, the second is from Nature (unfortunately this one requires paying for the article). I read through the article on the NASA site, and the abstract from the Nature article. I do not draw the same conclusions that the article on the website you linked to did.

In researching the author of the website article, his background includes multiple postings that pin GW on the earth, the sun, volcanoes, etc. And the website itself only posts anti-AGW articles and opinions.
Quoting 348. luvtogolf:

Forecast for the area.



0.28" at my location this morning. Just a drizzle now and local mets say the rain will be over by lunch time.
Here's what I'm wondering. Can Australia and central Asia have El Nino while we have nothing of the sort? El Nino is supposed to a global phenomena. Is it really? Have we only looked for global Nino/Nina and missed what were just local conditions? I have no idea if that's true, but we certainly are seeing classic El Nino condition in some areas and not in others.

it's a weather condition of which we've only been studying for a relatively short period of time....coupled with the data sources are old and dilapidated....and of which many are failing......as america continues to not fund science....i would expect things to get worse before we get better....one of the reasons i follow the aussie mets on the subject than the cpc...you can see who is spending more money on the subject
Quoting 354. sar2401:

Just about a zero chance. It will be party cloudy and cold until Saturday and Sunday. That's the only chance for precipitations but it looks like the highs will be near 40 and the lows in the high 30's.. By Monday, the high will be back to 30 and low down to about 15 but no precipitation at all. Sorry, looks like bad luck for snow on your trip. :-(


I think he's got a chance Friday night, but then ice/mix/rain after that.
Quoting 360. tampabaymatt:



0.28" at my location this morning. Just a drizzle now and local mets say the rain will be over by lunch time.


Enough rain to keep the grass green in the heart of winter.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


0.28" at my location this morning. Just a drizzle now and local mets say the rain will be over by lunch time.


Sunny down here.
Would love to pick up .3"

Quoting 309. MaxWeather:




I've been wondering...how hard is it logistically for people to actually work outside in this? Specifically those working on oil field/natural gas who work full shifts. Do they just suit up leaving no exposed skin? Limit their outside time? Build an enclosure around the work site & heat it? Is work called off?
06z update: Modoki type here.

Nino 1+2=-0.643c

Nino 3=+0.689c

Nino 3.4=+0.339c

Nino 4=+0.633c
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


That article was a good read and research based (amazing facts with the underground fresh water pools). However, it does not debunk the impacts of GW/Climate Change on the Northern latitudes. It basically shows that there are forces underground/thermal at work on the Greenland sheet as well and in addition to what is happening above ground such a soot deposit "darkening" which absorbs more heat and the documented permafrost melt and sinking in many areas (particularly in Alaska). It's a complex combination of forces, whether natural or man made, which are causing significant changes to the climate and topography in the higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere which we can study and document with our modern scientific tools.

As to the specific issue noted in this article (thermal heating in parts of the Greenland ice sheet), this could certainly be a huge factor in contributing to overall sea level rise in the long term.
The article to which yibi linked was written by a guy--James Edward Kamis--who steadfastly believes that the planet isn't heating up, but if it *is*, it's because of, er, plate tectonics. You know, because lava is hot. Or something.

Anyway, that article--found on a low-tier denialist website--is ricocheting around the denialosphere this morning, something which happens quite often when anti-science types foolishly misconstrue yet more peer-reviewed research as somehow bolstering their uninformed opinions, when the truth is anything but.

The actual abstract of the actual article:

"At the Earth’s surface, heat fluxes from the interior are generally insignificant compared with those from the Sun and atmosphere, except in areas permanently blanketed by ice. Modelling studies show that geothermal heat flux influences the internal thermal structure of ice sheets and the distribution of basal melt water, and it should be taken into account in planning deep ice drilling campaigns and climate reconstructions. Here we use a coupled ice–lithosphere model driven by climate and show that the oldest and thickest part of the Greenland Ice Sheet is strongly influenced by heat flow from the deep Earth. We find that the geothermal heat flux in central Greenland increases from west to east due to thinning of the lithosphere, which is only about 25–66% as thick as is typical for terrains of early Proterozoic age. Complex interactions between geothermal heat flow and glaciation-induced thermal perturbations in the upper crust over glacial cycles lead to strong regional variations in basal ice conditions, with areas of rapid basal melting adjoining areas of extremely cold basal ice. Our findings demonstrate the role that the structure of the solid Earth plays in the dynamics of surface processes."

The takeaway: some of the bottom melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet is caused by geothermal heat. The article states nothing about the rapid and extensive surface melt in Greenland--that is, the type of melting portrayed by the denialist website, knowing full well the gullible ignorati won't notice. Several recent studies have shown that much of the water from that surface melt is making its way through cracks all the way down to the bedrock/ice boundary, where it's serving as a lubricant helping to drive faster melt and movement.

Sigh...
See but here in Lebanon is shows friday night in the mid 20s. Saturday getting up to my then night back below freezing. And Saturday and Saturday night looks to be the most snow /rain. Plus i have some weather equipment here and the temperature at my location gets lower the the station shows. Like last night got down to 20 and was only forcast for 24 or 25. And i see the gfs snow model is showing six inches in some areas of central PA.
This storm reached the city of Río Cuarto, Argentina, last night with winds of 103 mph. Very intense summer's thunderstorm.


We have the forecast that can rain here between January 1st and January 2nd round 8 and 12 inches of rain during this period. The pressure will fall below 1000 mbar here in South Brazil, the low pressure forecasted is around 985 mbar.

Now 02:11 PM we have 92ºF with the heat index around 101ºF because of moisture.
Ro Cuarto yesterday: 103 mph.

Quoting 342. sar2401:


All I want is someone to let me know when some variation of El Nino will start, how strong it might be, and how long it might last. Really, this whole El Nino thing has been going back and forth for a year now, and the whole thing is getting really tiresome, especially when some people claim to know the exact answer...for the last year now.

SON (sept, Oct, Nov) averaged out to be 0.5. That is the first three month average where it was .5 or above.. We would need 4 more 3 month averages that warm or above. Which mean there would be no offical confirmed (already happened) El Nino til atleast the end of March at this point. With the winds still not blowing the heat that welled up in region 1&2 to the west much, the recent crash in Region 1&2 & ESPI being -.85, I'd bet we won't see an offical El Nino declared.

You've blogged here more than a year.. We've gone back and forth about ENSO since this blog began. Looking at the long term models is helpful.. There looks to be another substantial Kelvin wave coming & just because the equatorial winds aren't behaving like they have in years past does not mean that they won't when that one comes to South America & even if it doesn't (like the last two)~ that Kelvin wave will have an impact on the world's weather.. When these last Kelvin waves began to surface in region 1,2 without the winds to blow the heat west along the surface & after watching the first one surface & vent to the atmosphere there instead of drift west & vent as it went..I made a call that even though el nino probably wouldn't be offical, chances are we would see our hottest year globally & have a significant arctic melt year (but probably not the worst). I also based my 'cane numbers partially on it with 8-3-1 for the Atlantic & 26-10-6 for the East Pacific..

If this whole thing is becoming tiresome for you, maybe you should ignore those that are carrying on with it.. Even if someone's predictions aren't right, the info brought to back up their thoughts is such more a contribution than someone always saying how wrong someone else is.
Quoting 369. pablosyn:

This storm reached the city of Ro Cuarto, Argentina, last night with winds of 103 mph. Very intense summer's thunderstorm.


We have the forecast that can rain here between January 1st and January 2nd round 8 and 12 inches of rain during this period. The pressure will fall below 1000 mbar here in South Brazil, the low pressure forecasted is around 985 mbar.

Now 02:11 PM we have 92F with the heat index around 101F because of moisture.

Best of luck.. The SST east of there are ridiculous. Uruguay had flooding last week. The week before it was another area in that region.. And now all that cold welling up on the west side of SA..You are caught in the clash.
Quoting 360. tampabaymatt:



0.28" at my location this morning. Just a drizzle now and local mets say the rain will be over by lunch time.


0.23 here, Tampa International surprisingly had 0.50, all in all it was more rain than expected. Forecasters last night generally suggested any shot at measurable precip was very low, total rainfall was predicted to be less than 0.03 for everyone.

It wasn't anything impressive by any means, but it's more than anticipated, so in a dry month, we'll take it.
Record in Germany is now official:

2014 was warmest year on record: official
The Local (Germany), Published: 30 Dec 2014 15:38 GMT+01:00
It may not feel like it as you huddle into your winter wear, but Germany's warmest year in recorded history ends tomorrow – amid extreme snowfall warnings for New Year's Eve in some areas.
The average temperature reading in 2014 was 10.3 degrees Celsius, the highest since meteorological records began in 1881, the German Weather Service (DWD) in Offenbach reported on Tuesday.
The closest contenders were 2000 and 2007 with 9.9 degrees.
This year winter effectively by-passed some northern and eastern parts of the country in January and February, followed by a dry spring, a scorching summer and an autumn that was conspicuously lacking in storms.
The hottest day of the year was the June 9 Whit Monday public holiday, when the mercury hit 37.7 Celsius near the southwestern town of Baden-Baden.
Also in Baden-Württemberg, the coldest night of the year fell on December 29 in Altheim, where the temperature plummeted to minus 24.9.
By states, North Rhine-Westphalia was the warmest with an average of 10.9 degrees, and Bavaria the coolest with 9.6.
But it's not over til its over: Authorities in some parts of the country issued heavy snowfall warnings on Tuesday. ...
Quoting 371. Skyepony:


SON (sept, Oct, Nov) averaged out to be 0.5. That is the first three month average where it was .5 or above.. We would need 4 more 3 month averages that warm or above. Which mean there would be no offical confirmed (already happened) El Nino til atleast the end of March at this point. With the winds still not blowing the heat that welled up in region 1&2 to the west much, the recent crash in Region 1&2 & ESPI being -.85, I'd bet we won't see an offical El Nino declared.

You've blogged here more than a year.. We've gone back and forth about ENSO since this blog began. Looking at the long term models is helpful.. There looks to be another substantial Kelvin wave coming & just because the equatorial winds aren't behaving like they have in years past does not mean that they won't when that one comes to South America & even if it doesn't (like the last two)~ that Kelvin wave will have an impact on the world's weather.. When these last Kelvin waves began to surface in region 1,2 without the winds to blow the heat west along the surface & after watching the first one surface & vent to the atmosphere there instead of drift west & vent as it went..I made a call that even though el nino probably wouldn't be offical, chances are we would see our hottest year globally & have a significant arctic melt year (but probably not the worst). I also based my 'cane numbers partially on it with 8-3-1 for the Atlantic & 26-10-6 for the East Pacific..

If this whole thing is becoming tiresome for you, maybe you should ignore those that are carrying on with it.. Even if someone's predictions aren't right, the info brought to back up their thoughts is such more a contribution than someone always saying how wrong someone else is.

I believe that the majority of people who post on this site do so because they are sincerely interested in meteorology, and are not here to boost their egos or advance an ideology. There are, however, exceptions to this generalization.
People who are genuinely interested in weather soon learn that long range forecasts are often wrong, and that making categorical statements about future weather based on long range forecasts is a fool's errand. There are people, however, who insist on believing that future weather is both knowable and predictable. It is this disconnect from reality that is hard to swallow on a site that strives to be grounded in science
Quoting 373. Jedkins01:



0.23 here, Tampa International surprisingly had 0.50, all in all it was more rain than expected. Forecasters last night generally suggested any shot at measurable precip was very low, total rainfall was predicted to be less than 0.03 for everyone.

It wasn't anything impressive by any means, but it's more than anticipated, so in a dry month, we'll take it.


It's going to rain off and on for the next 48 hours. The HRRR, WRF, and Euro all seem to agree on this and the focus seems to be C FL with a stalled front.

Why the NWS offices aren't seeing this is besides me as it appears both the NWS in Tampa and Melbourne are busting the forecast today.

The Para GFS is calling for a major arctic outbreak for the SE in about 9 days!!!
378. yoboi
Quoting 375. ACSeattle:


I believe that the majority of people who post on this site do so because they are sincerely interested in meteorology, and are not here to boost their egos or advance an ideology. There are, however, exceptions to this generalization.
People who are genuinely interested in weather soon learn that long range forecasts are often wrong, and that making categorical statements about future weather based on long range forecasts is a fool's errand. There are people, however, who insist on believing that future weather is both knowable and predictable. It is this disconnect from reality that is hard to swallow on a site that strives to be grounded in science


Very true.....I can't get a decent forecast 3-5 days out......Yet I have seen some making predictions for the yr 2100....Science and technology have made great improvements over the years....but we have a very long way to go....
Quoting 377. weatherbro:

The Para GFS is calling for a major arctic outbreak for the SE in about 9 days!!!
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
Quoting 351. Sfloridacat5:



We have a 30% chance of rain today and tonight. 20% tomorrow.
If it rains it will be a miracle.

We've only got today and tomorrow to add some precipitation to the yearly total.

This year so far 42.32 "
Normal annual precipitation 55.81 "



Wow that is a dramatically well below normal, the closest reporting site to me has had 56 in. so far this year, and the average there is 54 in.

The only reason I mentioned closest site instead of the rain gauge here is that I just installed the new gauge here in in mid August at my parents house after the digital one died in January, so it's an incomplete year.

We were quite a bit below normal for most of the year and summer until September, since then it was quite wet until December, allowing us to catch up and have rainfall right near the average year to date. The rain gauge here though has had 26.48 since the beginning of September, and 25 of it fell from September through November. This month has been dry, only 1.24 so far for December here including today.

In contrast, we had just over 15 inches in September, over 4 inches in October, and amazingly nearly 6 inches in November.

Its likely our yearly total is between 55 and 58 inches, since we've had a bit more the last several months at times than the nearest gauge.

Last year, rainfall was substantially above normal, the yearly total was 74.32 in the gauge, the last year having the digital gauge here at the parents house.

The closest recording station all time record is 92 inches, so we were still far away from the wettest year on record.

I think the driest year on record in this area is 34 inches, I'm not for sure about that though, I'll have to check again.
Quoting 377. weatherbro:

The Para GFS is calling for a major arctic outbreak for the SE in about 9 days!!!


Yup with 30 to 35 degree below normal temps all across the SE US. Interesting run on the GFS Parallel. FL would be in the deep freeze "IF" that run of the upgraded GFS verifies as some anomalies are close to 40 degrees below average. My model is the Euro so we wait and see what the Euro says.
Quoting 376. StormTrackerScott:



It's going to rain off and on for the next 48 hours. The HRRR, WRF, and Euro all seem to agree on this and the focus seems to be C FL with a stalled front.

Why the NWS offices aren't seeing this is besides me as it appears both the NWS in Tampa and Melbourne are busting the forecast today.




The NWS in Ruskin bumped up precip chances to 70% for this morning and still have 60% for the area this afternoon, so it seems to me they are on it now.

All the forecasters did underestimate as late as yesterday morning though. The highest precip forecast by any forecaster was the NWS at 30% yesterday morning, everyone else had a measily 10-20%.
Quoting 377. weatherbro:

The Para GFS is calling for a major arctic outbreak for the SE in about 9 days!!!

These are high temperatures:



Good thing it's 9 days out.
Quoting 376. StormTrackerScott:



It's going to rain off and on for the next 48 hours. The HRRR, WRF, and Euro all seem to agree on this and the focus seems to be C FL with a stalled front.


If anything, I think the focus would be Miami as the front is expected to stall tomorrow morning over Fort Lauderdale(zoolon time is measured from Greenwich England. so 12z is really 6 am in Florida) and then drift towards the Florida Keys/Straights. We might deal with some extra clouds. Otherwise, both New Years EVE and Day should be beautiful with mid 70's/mid-upper 50's and dewpoints around 50! But by Friday and the weekend, prepare for more hot and humid weather(you can thank the SE Ridge caused by that Vegas blizzard) until at least next Monday.
NICE WARM WEATHER IN MIAMI,FL right now 84F AT 12:25PM
Quoting 369. pablosyn:

This storm reached the city of Río Cuarto, Argentina, last night with winds of 103 mph. Very intense summer's thunderstorm.


We have the forecast that can rain here between January 1st and January 2nd round 8 and 12 inches of rain during this period. The pressure will fall below 1000 mbar here in South Brazil, the low pressure forecasted is around 985 mbar.

Now 02:11 PM we have 92ºF with the heat index around 101ºF because of moisture.


Winter Storm Frona: Las Vegas Snow Ahead; Weekend Midwest, Northeast Threat?
Travel will become increasingly difficult in the Southwest from late Tuesday through New Year's Day, with the following main interstates likely to have snowy travel, or even closures of some stretches:

Interstate 15: North of Southern California's "Inland Empire" to Las Vegas into Utah
Interstate 5: In the L.A. County mountains (the "Grapevine")
Interstate 40: West of Albuquerque to Barstow, California
Interstate 17: North of Phoenix to Flagstaff, Arizo

n the wake of the snow, locally strong easterly winds are expected through late Tuesday night along parts of the Wasatch Front in Davis and Weber Counties, typical of these type of arctic air mass intrusions. Crosswind gusts up to 65 mph are possible along a stretch of Interstate 15 north of downtown Salt Lake City. Farther south, gusts to 50 mph are possible on the east side of the Salt Lake and Cache Valleys.

The wind and freshly fallen snow have prompted the Utah Avalanche Center to issue an avalanche warning for the foothills and canyon mouths from Salt Lake County north to the Utah-Idaho border. The agency says avalanches could occur "in low elevation areas where people do not normally see avalanches."

Easterly winds behind the arctic front will blow upslope into the Front Range of the Rockies and High Plains, helping produce light snowfall in western Kansas, eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico through early Wednesday, with additional accumulations less than 3 inches in most spots.

A mix of sleet, freezing drizzle or light freezing rain may lead to slick roads, particularly bridges and overpasses, in parts of west and even central Texas Tuesday into Wednesday, then again Thursday and possibly Friday as the upper-level system finally begins lifting out of the Southwest.
Quoting 385. weatherbro:



If anything, I think the focus would be Miami as the front is expected to stall tomorrow morning over Fort Lauderdale(zoolon time is measured from Greenwich England. so 12z is really 6 am in Florida) and then drift towards the Florida Keys/Straights. We might deal with some extra clouds. Otherwise, both New Years EVE and Day should be beautiful with mid 70's/mid-upper 50's and dewpoints around 50! But by Friday and the weekend, prepare for more hot and humid weather(you can thank the SE Ridge caused by that Vegas blizzard) until at least next Monday.


HRRR & WRF models keep rain going all thru the night and thru tomorrow but in a showery nature.


snow in the southwest
Quoting 385. weatherbro:



If anything, I think the focus would be Miami as the front is expected to stall tomorrow morning over Fort Lauderdale(zoolon time is measured from Greenwich England. so 12z is really 6 am in Florida) and then drift towards the Florida Keys/Straights. We might deal with some extra clouds. Otherwise, both New Years EVE and Day should be beautiful with mid 70's/mid-upper 50's and dewpoints around 50! But by Friday and the weekend, prepare for more hot and humid weather(you can thank the SE Ridge caused by that Vegas blizzard) until at least next Monday.


EST is -5 hours from GMT, so 12z is 7 am EST. And 'z' is for Zulu.


A plow clears snow in Boulder, Colo., Monday, Dec. 29, 2014.
Quoting Skyepony:

SON (sept, Oct, Nov) averaged out to be 0.5. That is the first three month average where it was .5 or above.. We would need 4 more 3 month averages that warm or above. Which mean there would be no offical confirmed (already happened) El Nino til atleast the end of March at this point. With the winds still not blowing the heat that welled up in region 1&2 to the west much, the recent crash in Region 1&2 & ESPI being -.85, I'd bet we won't see an offical El Nino declared.

You've blogged here more than a year.. We've gone back and forth about ENSO since this blog began. Looking at the long term models is helpful.. There looks to be another substantial Kelvin wave coming & just because the equatorial winds aren't behaving like they have in years past does not mean that they won't when that one comes to South America & even if it doesn't (like the last two)~ that Kelvin wave will have an impact on the world's weather.. When these last Kelvin waves began to surface in region 1,2 without the winds to blow the heat west along the surface & after watching the first one surface & vent to the atmosphere there instead of drift west & vent as it went..I made a call that even though el nino probably wouldn't be offical, chances are we would see our hottest year globally & have a significant arctic melt year (but probably not the worst). I also based my 'cane numbers partially on it with 8-3-1 for the Atlantic & 26-10-6 for the East Pacific..

If this whole thing is becoming tiresome for you, maybe you should ignore those that are carrying on with it.. Even if someone's predictions aren't right, the info brought to back up their thoughts is such more a contribution than someone always saying how wrong someone else is.
There has been a serious sticking point with regards to long range models for years ,and no matter how many times a blogger ( myself included ) points out the reasons for even having such computer forecasts is either ignored , or that person doesnt know why they exist in the first place. Long range models do not do well well with disturbances and T-waves in the seedling stages , and many here know that. The long range can show changes in hemispheric patterns and large weather systems with some degree of accuracy. The Mets will use all the models and ensembles to make a concensus like forecast. To make comments ridiculing a blogger posting for a long range run is groundless since it is weather related. I know you know this Skye, but I had a minute..:)
Quoting 338. sar2401:

Now that's a strange one. The vessel is the Blue Sky M. It's registered out of Moldova and it's a real junker, built in 1976.

Just to close this case for today:
'Migrant ship' heads for Italy after distress call scare
30 December 2014 Last updated at 17:30 GMT
A cargo ship believed to be carrying hundreds of migrants is heading for Italy after a passenger sparked an alert near the Greek island of Corfu.
The distress call to Greek emergency services prompted the navy to send a helicopter and a warship to the scene.
But later the coastguard said the captain of the Blue Sky M had been contacted and no-one was in danger. ...


Updating live report here.

Hope everything will pan out well, though probably some strange things happened. And have a nice evening everybody ...
Quoting 380. Jedkins01:



Wow that is a dramatically well below normal, the closest reporting site to me has had 56 in. so far this year, and the average there is 54 in.

The only reason I mentioned closest site instead of the rain gauge here is that I just installed the new gauge here in in mid August at my parents house after the digital one died in January, so it's an incomplete year.

We were quite a bit below normal for most of the year and summer until September, since then it was quite wet until December, allowing us to catch up and have rainfall right near the average year to date. The rain gauge here though has had 26.48 since the beginning of September, and 25 of it fell from September through November. This month has been dry, only 1.24 so far for December here including today.

In contrast, we had just over 15 inches in September, over 4 inches in October, and amazingly nearly 6 inches in November.

Its likely our yearly total is between 55 and 58 inches, since we've had a bit more the last several months at times than the nearest gauge.

Last year, rainfall was substantially above normal, the yearly total was 74.32 in the gauge, the last year having the digital gauge here at the parents house.

The closest recording station all time record is 92 inches, so we were still far away from the wettest year on record.

I think the driest year on record in this area is 34 inches, I'm not for sure about that though, I'll have to check again.


63" here in Longwood. 10" fell in November and 14" fell in September. Amazing totals around here this year and some areas by Titusville have seen over 70" and i can tell you I have never seen the water levels this high going into January.
Quoting 377. weatherbro:

The Para GFS is calling for a major arctic outbreak for the SE in about 9 days!!!


I'll believe it when I see it! This year besides one time in November it seems any artic air that enters the West and Midwest just seems to stall out and not make it to the Southeast, time will tell I guess.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Wow that is a dramatically well below normal, the closest reporting site to me has had 56 in. so far this year, and the average there is 54 in.

The only reason I mentioned closest site instead of the rain gauge here is that I just installed the new gauge here in in mid August at my parents house after the digital one died in January, so it's an incomplete year.

We were quite a bit below normal for most of the year and summer until September, since then it was quite wet until December, allowing us to catch up and have rainfall right near the average year to date. The rain gauge here though has had 26.48 since the beginning of September, and 25 of it fell from September through November. This month has been dry, only 1.24 so far for December here including today.

In contrast, we had just over 15 inches in September, over 4 inches in October, and amazingly nearly 6 inches in November.

Its likely our yearly total is between 55 and 58 inches, since we've had a bit more the last several months at times than the nearest gauge.

Last year, rainfall was substantially above normal, the yearly total was 74.32 in the gauge, the last year having the digital gauge here at the parents house.

The closest recording station all time record is 92 inches, so we were still far away from the wettest year on record.

I think the driest year on record in this area is 34 inches, I'm not for sure about that though, I'll have to check again.


It's even more dramatic at the house. I only recorded 37.87". So I'm about 4" below the city and about 19" below normal.

The rain seemed to be everywhere but here this year.
During the summer we had a lot of intense thunderstorms form just to our S.E., but they just wouldn't move across our area. They would either go around us or dissipate.

Maybe 2015 will be a wet year?
Quoting 396. 69Viking:



I'll believe it when I see it! This year besides one time in November it seems any artic air that enters the West and Midwest just seems to stall out and not make it to the Southeast, time will tell I guess.


Your right its going to be a tricky forecast. All may hinge on what happens with this upper trough over the Baja at day 9 because if it stays locked in that position then Arctic air will spill SE into FL if that upper trough comes out toward the Gulf then the Arctic airmass would be deflected toward the Mid Atlantic and not the SE US.
Quoting 387. LAbonbon:






https://scontent-b-gru.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/ v/t1.0-9/10882148_637572399686649_8059471556662515 329_n.jpg?oh=bd5e35ea17874dc8786a93c370dec9b0&oe=5 4FD9BAC

i want to show this for you. Is the image before the storm in Río Cuarto.
Quoting 397. Sfloridacat5:



It's even more dramatic at the house. I only recorded 37.87". So I'm about 4" below the city and about 19" below normal.

The rain seemed to be everywhere but here this year.
During the summer we had a lot of intense thunderstorms form just to our S.E., but they just wouldn't move across our area. They would either go around us or dissipate.

Maybe 2015 will be a wet year?


It was like that here in 2010.
Quoting 399. pablosyn:



https://scontent-b-gru.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/ v/t1.0-9/10882148_637572399686649_8059471556662515 329_n.jpg?oh=bd5e35ea17874dc8786a93c370dec9b0& oe=5 4FD9BAC

i want to show this for you. Is the image before the storm in Río Cuarto.


No luck with the photo, I'm afraid. Looks to be a photo on Facebook?
Quoting 398. StormTrackerScott:



Your right its going to be a tricky forecast. All may hinge on what happens with this upper trough over the Baja at day 9 because if it stays locked in that position then Arctic air will spill SE into FL if that upper trough comes out toward the Gulf then the Arctic airmass would be deflected toward the Mid Atlantic and not the SE US.


That seems what the forecasters are currently banking on as my forecast highs and lows 9-10 days out are right around normal which is a high of around 60 and low of around 40. I can't remember the last time we saw a freezing temperature, I think it was back in November.
Quoting 396. 69Viking:



I'll believe it when I see it! This year besides one time in November it seems any artic air that enters the West and Midwest just seems to stall out and not make it to the Southeast, time will tell I guess.


You and I are wishing for the exact opposite circumstances. You want the cold to decrease the bugs so hunting is easier and more enjoyable...whereas I don't want it 'cause I hate giving Entergy any more than I have to...
For FL, it looks like 0.10 to 0.25 in of rain for the most part across CFL, if that. Its not going to 'rain for days'.



There is some spotty light rain in the area right now.


Tomorrow, a meer 20% chance with beautiful weather anticipated, highs in the mid-upper 70s. :)

Quoting 399. pablosyn:



https://scontent-b-gru.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/ v/t1.0-9/10882148_637572399686649_8059471556662515 329_n.jpg?oh=bd5e35ea17874dc8786a93c370dec9b0&oe=5 4FD9BAC

i want to show this for you. Is the image before the storm in Río Cuarto.


Found this article that has some photos, including the storm moving into Rio Cuarto.
Quoting 402. 69Viking:



That seems what the forecasters are currently banking on as my forecast highs and lows 9-10 days out are right around normal which is a high of around 60 and low of around 40. I can't remember the last time we saw a freezing temperature, I think it was back in November.

After the hard November freeze, It did barely get to 32 one morning during Thanksgiving week, and after that flirted around freezing a couple more times or so. But still, solid freezing temps have largely been missing since that hard November freeze.
Quoting 399. pablosyn:



https://scontent-b-gru.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/ v/t1.0-9/10882148_637572399686649_8059471556662515 329_n.jpg?oh=bd5e35ea17874dc8786a93c370dec9b0&oe=5 4FD9BAC

i want to show this for you. Is the image before the storm in Río Cuarto.


Found an impressive video of one of the storms yesterday in Argentina (location: Las Heras, Mendoza in the west; hope the guy doesn't use any foul language, lol):

Quoting pablosyn:


https://scontent-b-gru.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/ v/t1.0-9/10882148_637572399686649_8059471556662515 329_n.jpg?oh=bd5e35ea17874dc8786a93c370dec9b0& oe=5 4FD9BAC

i want to show this for you. Is the image before the storm in Río Cuarto.
Here you go:

Quoting 401. LAbonbon:



No luck with the photo, I'm afraid. Looks to be a photo on Facebook?


yes, if from Facebook...
Quoting 409. pablosyn:



yes, is from Facebook...
411. etxwx
Late December EF-1 tornado in Jasper County. Tx caused damage but thankfully, no injuries:
NWS Meteorologists rate Rock Hill tornado an EF-1
Quoting 408. Neapolitan:

Here you go:


Ah, the expert succeeded :-) BTW I use your decoderizer for youtubes nearly every day now, thanks once again for this tool!
Also just found this, its interesting as some have been saying there is a massive warm pool thats going to surface in this region, i dont see it.

Quoting 408. Neapolitan:

Here you go:




Thank you so much!!! I was not able to do this. thanks a lot...this is the picture of the storm yesterday in Río Cuarto, Argentina, winds reached 103 mph.
Quoting 408. Neapolitan:

Here you go:




I feel both impressed that you figured out how to get the photo...and a bit of a dumb*** because I have no idea how you did it...

Thanks, though!
Quoting barbamz:


Found an impressive video of one of the storms yesterday in Argentina (location: Las Heras, Mendoza in the west; hope the guy doesn't use any foul language, lol):



You can tell that area doesn't see much severe weather (dry soil and the home made car port).

That carport wouldn't make it though even a mild severe thunderstorm or a weak tropical storm.
Quoting 413. WxGuy2014:

Also just found this, its interesting as some have been saying there is a massive warm pool thats going to surface in this region, i dont see it.


418. yoboi
Geaux Tigers......1 hr until kickoff weather seen better......
Historical data, however, suggest the odds are stacked against a snowy winter after a snowless December.

Link
The tornado that impacted the city of Valdosta, Georgia yesterday morning has been rated an EF2, with maximum winds of 120 mph. It caused nine injuries. The cell that produced this twister was unusual--there was little to no lightning associated with it, and velocities were negligible. A tornado warning was not issued until after the tornado impacted Valdosta, giving no lead time.

Quoting 421. washingtonian115:


:(.
Today's 12z ECMWF animation of 850mb temperature anomalies:

Link



snow!!


cold weather moving to the northeast for a few days
Quoting 425. hurricanes2018:



There's a reason I linked that, it's a 14.3mb animation. Loops that big will slow down the page loading time.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The tornado that impacted the city of Valdosta, Georgia yesterday morning has been rated an EF2, with maximum winds of 120 mph. It caused nine injuries. The cell that produced this twister was unusual--there was little to no lightning associated with it, and velocities were negligible. A tornado warning was not issued until after the tornado impacted Valdosta, giving no lead time.



Even after there was a report of a tornado with damage, the Storm Prediction Center was still showing, no thunderstorms or severe activity anywhere in the U.S.
Quoting 420. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The tornado that impacted the city of Valdosta, Georgia yesterday morning has been rated an EF2, with maximum winds of 120 mph. It caused nine injuries. The cell that produced this twister was unusual--there was little to no lightning associated with it, and velocities were negligible. A tornado warning was not issued until after the tornado impacted Valdosta, giving no lead time.




Very unexpected tornado considering how weak the thunderstorms were. Storms showed up as yellow on radar which is considered moderate storms, usually takes some reds to indicate strong to severe. I also heard cloud tops didn't go much higher than 20,000 feet another indication of a rather weak storm.
192 hours out. I couldn't find the 384 hour one. I like to plan ahead.

Quoting 421. washingtonian115:


:(.
Quoting 422. Climate175:


Quoting 419. washingtonian115:

Historical data, however, suggest the odds are stacked against a snowy winter after a snowless December.

Link
Y'all making my heart hurt.
What's funny is I've seen more tornadoes living in S.W. Florida than I did when I was living in Central Oklahoma.
But the tornadoes here are usually high base and weak (EF0-EF1).

Most of the tornadoes I saw in Oklahoma were EF2 or stronger.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Y'all making my heart hurt.


Washington wants snow like CaribbeanBoy (can't remember his exact screen name) wanted a tropical storm.
He got his wish in 2014.
Quoting 433. Sfloridacat5:



Washington wants snow like CaribbeanBoy (can't remember his exact screen name) wanted a tropical storm.
He got his wish in 2014.


I want snow too, but all I end up with is something like this for now...
Quoting 429. 69Viking:



Very unexpected tornado considering how weak the thunderstorms were. Storms showed up as yellow on radar which is considered moderate storms, usually takes some reds to indicate strong to severe. I also heard cloud tops didn't go much higher than 20,000 feet another indication of a rather weak storm.

I just created a six-frame radar animation as the cell passed on the southern side of Valdosta. Top left is common reflectivity; top right is storm relative velocity; bottom left is correlation coefficient (values <0.8 in conjunction with a tornado signature indicates debris); bottom right is normalized rotation



In case anybody is wondering why the radar is so cluttered, it's because the radar site is <20mi away.
Quoting 407. barbamz:



Found an impressive video of one of the storms yesterday in Argentina (location: Las Heras, Mendoza in the west; hope the guy doesn't use any foul language, lol):


Looks like so much fun to be outside in that.

I can finally become Swiss Cheese Man ;)
Quoting SouthCentralTx:


I want snow too, but all I end up with is something like this for now...


I lived in San Antonio when they got 13" of snow.
But most of the time they get freezing drizzle. It's pretty hard to get snow down into the city. It happens every once in a while, but most Winters they get a little freezing drizzle and that' about it.
Up in the Hill Country, they also usually see freezing drizzle, but it mixes with sleet and a little light snow from time to time. I have family that lives in Boerne (20 miles north of San Antonio up I10 - elevation 1400 ft.).

San Antonio is down around 750 ft. above sea level.
I also lived just N.W. of the city for about 7 years (basically right on the Balcones Escarpment region).
Quoting 434. SouthCentralTx:



I want snow too, but all I end up with is something like this for now...


Freezing rain on a night when the drunks will be out in force, recipe for a lot of accidents!
The long windup to a possible authentic Pineapple Connection is underway on the West Coast. We had a strong push of Arctic air overnight which in California usually only means maybe some nighttime frost once the winds die down. Since the winds are offshore and the air sinking, no moisture. Meanwhile, another Arctic push has occurred north of Hawaii and will be picking up energy and moisture from the warm SSTs. By the end of the week, this will bring a period of storminess to Hawaii. Models are indicating that by next week, rains will likely return to the West Coast as the Pacific jet strengthens and breaks through the current ridge which has given us a chance to percolate all that rain we had recently.
Quoting 429. 69Viking:



Very unexpected tornado considering how weak the thunderstorms were. Storms showed up as yellow on radar which is considered moderate storms, usually takes some reds to indicate strong to severe. I also heard cloud tops didn't go much higher than 20,000 feet another indication of a rather weak storm.


It was even weaker than that, it didn't make it even to 20,000 ft, no lightning, and updrafts couldn't push past barely 10,000 ft. I think the maximum could top was 12,000 ft, that's a very weak and ordinary convective cell, and to get an EF2 out of it is very odd.

But it is a good example that it doesn't take violent convection to have nasty tornadoes. I've seen vicious thunderstorm here in the summer with tops that exceed 50,000 ft and have insane amounts of lightning but no tornadoes or severe weather.

It is a good example of showing that it's all about the dynamics, not so much thunderstorm intensity.
Quoting 431. Tornado6042008X:

Y'all making my heart hurt.
Until the storm track changes then continue to expect rain storms.
440.

... what the heck?
2014 weather wise for this area. yr of the drizzly days. e cen fl.
Quoting 69Viking:


Freezing rain on a night when the drunks will be out in force, recipe for a lot of accidents!


Hopefully the ice stays north of San Antonio. A large percentage of the highway network in San Antonio is built above ground (elevated). The highways ice up very easily.
But San Antonio usually shuts down the highways when there is a threat of ice.
Quoting Jedkins01:


?


Someone please summarize for me. I just can't read all that.
On topic - weather is beautiful outside (80 and sunny). Where's the rain?
But San Antonio usually shuts down the highways when there is a threat of ice.


i'm a frequent visitor to sa.......and i've seen plenty of ice on the roads in winter....they don't shut down for a threat...or light freezing on bridges and overpasses.....heavy ice...which is unusual...they do though
440.

... what the heck?



i think it should have been post 420
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 420. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The tornado that impacted the city of Valdosta, Georgia yesterday morning has been rated an EF2, with maximum winds of 120 mph. It caused nine injuries. The cell that produced this twister was unusual--there was little to no lightning associated with it, and velocities were negligible. A tornado warning was not issued until after the tornado impacted Valdosta, giving no lead time.



...and without CC/Rho from dual pol, there probably would have been no warning at all. The only indication of a tornado would have come from the EMs calling the NWS to report the damage. My guess is the touchdown may have occurred between radar scans, or may have been so shallow that it was under the 0.5deg tilt.
Quoting 442. BayFog:

The long windup to a possible authentic Pineapple Connection is underway on the West Coast. We had a strong push of Arctic air overnight which in California usually only means maybe some nighttime frost once the winds die down. Since the winds are offshore and the air sinking, no moisture. Meanwhile, another Arctic push has occurred north of Hawaii and will be picking up energy and moisture from the warm SSTs. By the end of the week, this will bring a period of storminess to Hawaii. Models are indicating that by next week, rains will likely return to the West Coast as the Pacific jet strengthens and breaks through the current ridge which has given us a chance to percolate all that rain we had recently.


Arctic air can produce freezes with wind down to southern FL though not often. 6F in TLH (northwest FL) was accompanied by 25kt north winds Jan 21, 1985, the coldest day of the 20'th century. But then FL doesn't have an 8,000 foot mountain range between it and Central Canada.