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Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:29 PM GMT on June 28, 2009

Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters.

Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status.

Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imagery indicates that the convection is weak, with relatively low rainfall rates.

It is worth noting that even if more convection forms after the circulation center moves into the Gulf of Mexico, there isn't much time for the storm to strengthen. By Tuesday evening, both the NAM and GFS 06Z model runs bring a weak front down into the Gulf, raising wind shear to the point that would dissipate Invest93L.

So, after considering the above, it's my opinion that Invest93L is not likely to intensify and will dissipate in a day or so.

Rob Carver

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1002. Patrap
Naw FutureMet..no offense,just bad memories come to Mind..closure is hard and always will remain at arms reach for some of us here..


No offense my friend.
1004. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
The blog will be real time data,best we can garner.
But it will only be a trial run. If its gets wacky,..we'll just abort and Pull the Plug and Post Led Zep video's instead.


Like "Wearing and Tearing",..Blogger Ike's Fav.


Yo bud!
93l doesn't seem to be sustaining deep convection offshore.

Here in NOLA we just had a nice storm tried to cross a "puddle" on my bike and found it was a lake!
1006. Patrap
Sure nuff JF..dropped 20 degrees with that boomer in 45minutes.

Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 8:04 PM CDT on June 28, 2009
Light Rain
76.8 °F
Light Rain
I KNOW its wonderful! You can feel it. I think I might go for another a bike ride -- around the puddles this time.
1008. Patrap
The Graph shows it well

Quoting Patrap:
Naw WS..no offense,just bad memories come to Mind..closure is hard and always will remain at arms reach for some of us here..


No offense my friend.


I am not WeatherStudent

But such a storm was a calamity, and hopefully you will feel better soon.
Gee folks, if it brings some rain to South Texas on a weak tropical wave, we'll take it. It might improve the surfing a bit too.
Dammit Pat he's a doctor not a meteorologist.
1013. Patrap
..my Bad FutureMet..

Sorry bout that. Ill modify it my friend.
Long day..plus Im Old..
Wow what a sunset pat, wish I was over on the river with my camera. wow.

You cant beat the south for sunsets. Even better than calf. All the humidity is good for something I guess.
Quoting Patrap:
..my Bad FutureMet..

Sorry bout that. Ill modify it my friend.
Long day..plus Im Old..LOL


lol That's because WS is one of the most notorious ones here. About 90% of us are familiar with him.
1016. Patrap
Nothing beats them original Series Star Trek Episodes,they were so far ahead socially and In many other ways.
Now we have a Computer that we can scan the Planet with.
Still no flying cars.
We kids in the 60's were told we'd have Flying cars by now.
What Gives?
1017. Patrap
Google JFV,wunderground,..then hit Images or text.
I Laughed for Hours.
Quoting Patrap:
Google JFV,wunderground,..then hit Images or text.
I Laughed for Hours.


Or you can use the web. On the WU pages, select the google option--"CACHED"
Quoting beell:
Crow


;)
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al932009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200906290110
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
No flying cars or time travel..I beg to differ...

1022. Patrap
Quoting futuremet:


Or you can use the web. On the WU pages, select the google option--"CACHED"


Sure nuff,thanks
1024. beell
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


;)

yup, beat ya to it this year, i think...
)
Dr Hansen was arrested for protesting moutaintop removal. They were at an elementary school & got arrested for obstucting & causing a scene on the 300yd walk to a strip mining operation.
Quoting Patrap:


Sure nuff,thanks



The image page had me falling out of my chair. Nice photowork pat.
1027. Patrap
Like they say, the Web is Forever,..LOL
so,who's cooking my crow???,lol;)
Pat good thing most people can't drive in 2 dimensions much less 3. Now that's scary.
1030. Patrap
Wow,.just Like the 60's again Skyepony.
Strip Mines destroy and pollute big time.

Hurrah for him On standing up to Big Business,instead of writing about it.
1031. Levi32
Quoting hurricane2009:


It is now official

Poof 93L


Probably a good call as convection is almost nonexistent. It's all land-based. Still should be kept an eye on when it gets in the gulf though.
Quoting Patrap:
Google JFV,wunderground,..then hit Images or text.
I Laughed for Hours.


Too funny. I'm in pain from the laughter.
1034. JRRP
mmmmmmmm
<>img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg" alt=%
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al932009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200906290110
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
hey hey bye bye
Im not even sure if the main circ of "93L" or what ever made it off the peninsula yet.
Ike spared the crow recipes yet again lol, crow is never good for the digestive system :)
Look at all the rain over the sahal may put end to the dust.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Im not even sure if the main circ of "93L" or what ever made it off the peninsula yet.


seems to be moving more due west.

Full-screen
Station 42055
NDBC
Location: 22.017N 94.046W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 00:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 11.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 2.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (97°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.1 F
Dew Point: 78.6 F
Water Temperature: 84.7 F
guys look at east atlantic prob 94l
XXX/XX/XXL
MARK
XX.X/XX.X
I don't think there are to many on this blog who can see the screen for all the crow feathers.
No scratch that - more WNW probably

Station 42002 - W GULF 207 NM East of Brownsville, TX
Station 42002
NDBC
Location: 25.790N 93.666W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 00:50:00 UTC
Winds: at 1.9 kt gusting to 3.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (116°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.82 in and falling
Air Temperature: 84.9 F
Water Temperature: 87.3 F
1047. Levi32
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Im not even sure if the main circ of "93L" or what ever made it off the peninsula yet.


Well the answer to that is kind of both yes and no lol. Early this morning the main circulation was offshore near the NW Yucatan but has since almost completely dissipated. The new best estimate of the center is just offshore the north Yucatan, but there appears to be another mid-level center to the south still overland. Overall, still disorganized and vertically skewed.
Levi~ I agree, I don't see the NAVY dropping it yet. There's a spot just on the N coast of the yukatan that's down to 5kts of shear. Even though a weak LLC spun off & died west, the main energy of the wave axis is still over land.
Still think 23n:88w
1050. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:
Nothing beats them original Series Star Trek Episodes,they were so far ahead socially and In many other ways.
Now we have a Computer that we can scan the Planet with.
Still no flying cars.
We kids in the 60's were told we'd have Flying cars by now.
What Gives?


Here ya go Patrick. Not sure on the video item, but it looks good :)






The actual car from this year
1052. Patrap
LSU researchers: coastal restoration projects doomed to fail
by Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
Sunday June 28, 2009, 12:05 PM


Even under best-case scenarios for building massive engineering projects to restore Louisiana's dying coastline, the Mississippi River can't possibly feed enough sediment into the marshes to prevent ongoing catastrophic land loss, two Louisiana State University geologists conclude in a scientific paper being published today.
1053. Patrap
I was thinking more of a George Jetsons type Bubble vehicle..

But that'll do..LOL
1054. Levi32
Quoting Skyepony:
Levi~ I agree, I don't see the NAVY dropping it yet. There's a spot just on the N coast of the yukatan that's down to 5kts of shear. Even though a weak LLC spun off & died west, the main energy of the wave axis is still over land.


Yup. I think everyone would be looking at this differently if their memories of the last 2 days were erased and we were just detecting this system. In that light we would be looking at it as a tropical wave bringing moisture and an area of disturbed weather northward into the Gulf of Mexico that should be watched for mischief. That's how I'm still looking at it.

Be back later.
"so yer sayin there's a chance?",lol...
1056. JRRP
Look forward hopefully to a fresh Dr.Masters blog in the AM with Doc back! :)
I can still see rotation over the Yucitan heading West at around 21N -89W.
Quoting Levi32:


Well the answer to that is kind of both yes and no lol. Early this morning the main circulation was offshore near the NW Yucatan but has since almost completely dissipated. The new best estimate of the center is just offshore the north Yucatan, but there appears to be another mid-level center to the south still overland. Overall, still disorganized and vertically skewed.


I was thinking the same thing, the two circulation seems to want to converge or stack. I still think something could happen, but not saying it will.
Seems only Levi is still giving it a chance. Anyone else?
Quoting Skyepony:
Levi~ I agree, I don't see the NAVY dropping it yet. There's a spot just on the N coast of the yukatan that's down to 5kts of shear. Even though a weak LLC spun off & died west, the main energy of the wave axis is still over land.


Navy follows ATCF, they have dropped it.
Evening Folks...Back in Tallahassee this evening after spending the past week in Orlando and South Florida....Tropics not too active, but, I just got a round of T-storms up here that snapped a few trees in my backyard shortly after I arrived home with some pretty strong gusts....That's what I get for not checking in with you Guys, or checking any weather for that matter, since last Tuesday...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Seems only Levi is still giving it a chance. Anyone else?


Me...10% chance
1065. Patrap
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Seems only Levi is still giving it a chance. Anyone else?


Darn my two thunderstorms are dieing there goes my center. Also nice balloon car.
yea Id say its a possible depression at least.
1068. Asta
Quoting Patrap:
LSU researchers: coastal restoration projects doomed to fail
by Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
Sunday June 28, 2009, 12:05 PM


Even under best-case scenarios for building massive engineering projects to restore Louisiana's dying coastline, the Mississippi River can't possibly feed enough sediment into the marshes to prevent ongoing catastrophic land loss, two Louisiana State University geologists conclude in a scientific paper being published today.

Driving Nola, I am amazed at the depth and frequency of the new potholes and subsidence- especially in the drought.... It's unbelievable.. And more shore birds and ducks have made metairie their home now...
Quoting JRRP:
Link
Jrrp, Are you looking at the blob still on shore? If so look at what is just offshore. Is that rotation I see, or is it my eyes?
does anyone see the blow up at 11n 80w movement WNW-W from that tropical wave
do you have these pics saved on your pc for all scenarios Pat?
1072. Ossqss
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Seems only Levi is still giving it a chance. Anyone else?


Can't find it on the list.

The Odds
Ever wondered?
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division (Code 7500) Tropical Cyclone Page (Ver.4.37.03) Development Team

NOTE: this page is short lived (10 m). DO NOT bookmark it or save it to Favorites. Instead, bookmark http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
No Active Storms
<-- You may select a previously archived storm from the list in the left frame.

Hurricane Alma (1966)

The models themselves are not perfect predictors and contain fudge factors dependent on historical circumstances.
1077. Patrap
do you have these pics saved on your pc for all scenarios Pat?


No..I just mostly use Google Images.
Patrap Images is a Idea Im floating with a Company not yet to be named,since Im awaiting the Lawyers paperwork and a Check..LOL

Patrap Images
Stuff happens.
it's never nothing, until it's something.
And I like history

Look at this one!! :

Hurricane Audrey



Audrey is ranked as the sixth deadliest hurricane to hit the United States mainland since accurate record-keeping began in 1900. No future hurricane caused as many fatalities in the United States until Katrina in 2005.
1082. Patrap
So anything developing in SW Carribean soon.Looks like some rain coming off the coast of Colombia.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Hurricane Alma (1966)

The models themselves are not perfect predictors and contain fudge factors dependent on historical circumstances.


Good education on Alma. Thanks
well...I spent the afternoon at the ER....turned out to be a kidney stone...most painful thing I've ever experienced...I have nothing good to say about it...

Anything happening in weatherland that I need to know?
Just because a previous storm forms in the same general area, does not mean the same atmospheric conditions are in place for current development. That is just not logical.
I didnt know about Audrey, the name was retired.

That proves you better watch everythign in the GOM.
1090. Patrap
Ouch...fluids,and bedrest or the Sonic Treatment press?
.
I can't find the video again, but here's some pics - The video was pretty amazing because the tornado jumped directly over the guy with the camera! http://www.ghive.com/surfjaxpier/blog/8923
1096. Patrap
REMEMBERING AUDREY
Posted by The Times-Picayune June 24, 2007 10:44PM
By Ron Thibodeaux
Staff writer




Wrong place, wrong time

Until 2005, Hurricane Audrey was the United States' benchmark killer storm of modern times. Since the National Weather Service began naming hurricanes in 1953, Audrey had claimed more lives than any other storm -- even more than Camille, which all but wiped Pass Christian, Miss., off the map in 1969 -- until it was eclipsed by Hurricane Katrina.

Several factors combined to make Audrey's impact so extreme.

Coastal Cameron Parish is isolated even by modern standards. Tucked into the extreme southwestern corner of the state below broad expanses of marsh, it's an hour's drive from the nearest city, Lake Charles. Fifty years ago, it might as well have been half a world away from anywhere.

In an era predating Doppler radar, weather satellites and Jim Cantore, approaching hurricanes did not attract the kind of attention that modern-day residents of the Gulf South take for granted. Lake Charles' lone television station had begun broadcasting three years earlier, and radio stations from throughout the region could reach Cameron listeners back then, but it's hard to know the extent to which Cameron Parish residents were warned of the approaching hurricane and just how powerful it was.

According to local lore, many residents thought they had more time to seek shelter or higher ground but were caught by surprise when the hurricane strengthened and sped up overnight as it approached the Louisiana coast.

Furthermore, this was a rare June storm in an area that had not experienced a serious hurricane for many years. Even if the appropriate warnings were communicated, many people probably just didn't take them seriously.

Audrey turned out to be the only Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in the United States in June. While it also flooded lower Vermilion Parish to the east and took sustained winds above 100 mph into Calcasieu Parish to the north, Audrey did its worst in Cameron, where some accounts had 20-foot waves riding the 12-foot storm surge at the coast, topped by winds as strong as 150 mph.

The official death toll was placed at 390, but that's widely acknowledged as a low-ball figure; there were individuals or entire families whose bodies were never recovered from the area's wetlands. A variety of state, federal and local sources have estimated the fatality total between 400 and 600.

All in all, it was, for Cameron Parish, exactly the wrong hurricane, in the wrong place, at the wrong time.
Press..more painful than some of the posts on this blog? Glad you are feeling better!
1099. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:
do you have these pics saved on your pc for all scenarios Pat?


No..I just mostly use Google Images.
Patrap Images is a Idea Im floating with a Company not yet to be named,since Im awaiting the Lawyers paperwork and a Check..LOL

Patrap Images


Don't forget us when it takes off !



1100. Levi32
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
So anything developing in SW Carribean soon.Looks like some rain coming off the coast of Colombia.


No I don't think so. Upper-level conditions are not very favorable and this tropical wave is bound for the east Pacific.
Quoting hurricane2009:


Just because Audrey developed 42 years ago doesnt mean this has even the smallest chance to develop. Remember now 93L has been deactivated, meaning it no longer exists at this point


What Im saying anything near tropical in the gom this time a year is game and of potential interest.

And Audrey was further in than 93l. You never know with storms in that area. The BOC is known as a nursery for storms.
A confirmed F1 tornado that did major damage in Weathersfield, CT but there is nothing mentioned in either the SPC or the AFD.
Is there a link to localized damage report that im missing?
At this point there was a mile path of destruction from the tornado. Major tree damage, one tree split a house in half. A massave cleanup effort is underway, Many people still without power, especially in the twisters path.
LOL Ossqss!
1105. pottery
Evening all.
The Tropical Atlantic is ripe for storm development right now.
Very little SAL. A fair amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Warm enough sea.
Everything is go.
Except there are no clouds, and too much shear.
Where is the ITCZ? I need some rain here.........
1106. JRRP
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Jrrp, Are you looking at the blob still on shore? If so look at what is just offshore. Is that rotation I see, or is it my eyes?

i think that is rotation
Quoting hurricane2009:


However the NHC and deactivation of invest status is pretty much saying the potential is non existent.


No just means its probably not doing anything in the next 24 hrs.
1109. Patrap
I doubt Id ever forget the wunderground. They and everyone here have been a Great Blessing to Myself and My Family.
Sharing here is a Therapy my Shrinks at the VA say is better than anything they could have done for my PTSD.

So in a way,many here have helped in that regard,to which I'll be forever grateful.


The Navy Page has dropped 93L... No active Invests....
Quoting hurricane2009:


Yup they have

93L is done now


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PERSIST FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Hummmm.
All I have to say now is...next!
Quoting JFLORIDA:


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PERSIST FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Hummmm.


They have to put that...even if it was under 60 knots of shear and they mentioned the area of weather they would have to put at least a low chance.
Ill wait for the official word. Still its more interesting than some storms coming off Africa. Nothing usually happens there till late july.
NAMMY is reinvigorating invest93
1120. Ossqss
Quoting Willow13:
I'm not sure this will work. I copied the "embed" to show you, if you haven't already seen it, the tornado that started as a waterspout on the St. John's River in Jacksonville.


Please delete this! Never mind - ignore works just fine!
Quoting hurricane2009:
The ULL and Yucatan did a tag team number on 93L and well 93L lost lol

mainly that ULL though, which was orginally forecasted to move away from the invest, it stayed closer and sheared it to bits


Not to mention the 200 swirls that formed each minute of the day to compete with for energy.
1125. Patrap


38 min 51 sec ago
Conn. town cleans up after tornado



(NECN/WTNH: Wethersfield, Conn.) - Crews in Wethersfield, Connecticut have been working through the weekend to clean up the mess left by a tornado on Friday.

The EF-1 class twister packed winds of up to 100 miles per hour and left serious damage to the central Connecticut town.

"We have six homes out of probably about 70 that we've had to condemn, so that's been really rough for residents. But they've done a great job. The tree cutting we've done really well, the main thorough fares are now open," Town Manager Bonnie Therrien said.

There were no reports of any serious injuries. Connecticut Light and Power expected to have power restored to everyone by Sunday night.

Video courtesy of WTNH.
Quoting extreme236:


They have to put that...even if it was under 60 knots of shear and they mentioned the area of weather they would have to put at least a low chance.


Ive actually seen a storm develop under around 50 knts of shear there. What else is there to discus? sporting events??
To all of you who stuck with 93 til the end, and to those who still do, dedicated to you...

Quoting JFLORIDA:
Ill wait for the official word. Still its more interesting than some storms coming off Africa. Nothing usually happens there till late july.


You dont get much more offical than the NHC...not to mention there is nothing there on the satellite imagery.
1130. JRRP
Quoting Ossqss:

jjajajajajjaaja
1131. Patrap
How Bout them Brazilians ,eh?
Time to move on...I am sure there will be much more serious concerns coming up this season.
1133. hahaguy
Quoting Ossqss:


LOL
Quoting extreme236:


You dont get much more offical than the NHC...not to mention there is nothing there on the satellite imagery.


Well fine, I mean if you guys want to discus something else go ahead - just saying there is still a wave there.

Didnt know we had so many experts in the house with other plans for the blog.

Texas needs the rain, the drought there is probably one of the most important weather features out there.
1138. hahaguy
Quoting Patrap:
How Bout them Brazilians ,eh?


That just shows that the u.s. soccer team sucks when they can't even hold onto a 2-0 lead after halftime.
Keep, is it RIP? What say ye?
yea Pat...and a handful of Percocet
There is nothing wrong with sticking with your convictions JFLORIDA....but when you post, you will get responses.
yes mlc a while ago now
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
There is nothing wrong with sticking with your convictions JFLORIDA....but when you post, you will get responses.


I dont care what it does honestly Im looking at the storm - its not a "conviction"

The axis of the wave would still seem to indicate the old coc is over the peninsula (turn on fronts)
The sure sign the tropics are quiet...WeatherStudent is not posting :)
As long as the blog seems to have slowed down... Testing...testing... Is my avatar posting now?
a old e atl image updated one shortly

1149. Ossqss
I understand, from reading serveral weather sites, that there is a chance that a Cape storm could brew this week Tuesday = Wed, ish. Is that still the case? There was some opportunity from what I understand. Thoughts?
1150. Patrap
Percocet is a Blessing when needed.

Just dont go Steering that Jet down the runway alone now
1151. hahaguy
Quoting ficusthis:
As long as the blog seems to have slowed down... Testing...testing... Is my avatar posting now?

Yep
Most interesting thing in the Atlantic...that ain't saying much...unless it starts firing off some convection.
Everyone east of and including Louisiana looks like there in for some bad weather tonight. Hope everyone is safe.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The sure sign the tropics are quiet...WeatherStudent is not posting :)


thank goodness!
Testing, testing......
1157. Patrap
LOL...1100+ posts in 14 hours for a weak invest.

The amount of people engaging in the discussion continues to grow each year. :)
Maybe I am wrong should have looked at radar first, it doesn't match up with water vapor upon further looking. My bad
Quikscat caught the swirl off VA..
quoting Hurricane 2009...

Yes, and let's hope it stays that way!! I'm hoping things don't fire up until late August -- my daughters and grandchildren are coming home to visit the first two weeks of August....keeping my fingers crossed!!
1162. JRRP
Quoting hurricane2009:


yup and right now it is the most interesting thing in the Atlantic Basin, doesnt matter where its located

I agree
1164. Ossqss
Never let your guard down. Be ready! L8R

When we really have a serious storm out there threatening a certain area, the blog will crash...just like last year. (Unless they upgraded their server)
1166. pottery
Actually, I want to correct my post 1105.
The upper, mid, and low level winds in the tropical Atlantic are all Easterly.
Have not seen that before, this "season".
That wave south of the Azores may be one to keep an eye on for true.
1167. Patrap
The wu-Blogs use only about 5-6 % of the Server.

It dosent crash from Posting on the Blogs.

The biggest problem used to be clock-drift,but that hasnt happened in awhile now
Not being a computer expert...what made the blog crash...or take so long...to get comments posted?
IGNORANCE
Although this wave might have a hard time getting together unless it stayed south of 10N. SST aren't favorable for real development until 50W.
Good evening..an significant change with the invest d'jour?
1172. Patrap
Nothing crashed here all day,well since 8:30 am CST.
Might have been your ISP local problem.
1174. Patrap
The invest Du'jour is a Invest no more....
1176. Ossqss
Interesting thing Patrap is the imbedded content that stays alive in these blogs. It directly affects the connection and not the servers. An example being the video that played on a prior page without being asked. Other posts connect and check in, and are not asked to do so. The burden is cumulative. Just my take from my Data loss prevention training that I had last week. Big Brother is coming folks. Think of all the connections that are in place if you will in the last 4,000 posts, over the last few days, just for Jeffs blog. Its about bandwidth, not storage capacity :)

I am 10-42 and out.
Quoting hurricane2009:


depends on which set of SSTs you look at

I believe the SSD site shows SSTs a bit more favorable


Mine is about a week old. Probably some updated images out there but I'm too sleepy to Google.
I was referring to last season...It took forever during a few storms for the blog to refresh or make new postings.
1180. pottery
post 1170, WBB. I am not ecpecting development into anything, except it would be real nice if that wave could make it's way here, and dump some badly needed rains......
1181. Patrap
Yeah..I remember those tough to post days.
I believe it was that clock drift problem,but it hasnt done that in awhile though,thankfully
1182. Patrap
G'night Cowboys and Crows..

Evening all...

I may cry if we don't get some rain soon... and if this heat doesn't stop. My car read 108 today. It's hit over 100 for the past week. My poor kids can't even go outside :(

Any predictions on when this high will move from Texas? (and please don't say November)
Quoting pottery:
post 1170, WBB. I am not ecpecting development into anything, except it would be real nice if that wave could make it's way here, and dump some badly needed rains......
how much rains do ya want i see what i can do for ya

lol
Quoting pottery:
Actually, I want to correct my post 1105.
The upper, mid, and low level winds in the tropical Atlantic are all Easterly.
Have not seen that before, this "season".
That wave south of the Azores may be one to keep an eye on for true.
ya pottery i've already pegged it at 11.5n/21.2n
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Evening all...

I may cry if we don't get some rain soon... and if this heat doesn't stop. My car read 108 today. It's hit over 100 for the past week. My poor kids can't even go outside :(

Any predictions on when this high will move from Texas? (and please don't say November)

October. hehe. Seriously, its going to need to be pushed out of the way, and the only 2 things that can do that are tropical systems and cold fronts. This being the end of June... don't bet on a cold front.

The high itself is subtropical in nature, and there usually is one parked somewhere around this latitude, although further west.
Quoting Ossqss:
Its about bandwidth, not storage capacity


YUP! And, storage is cheap. Bandwidth is not and a whole other set of issues.
See ya!
She's come undone . . . a href="" target="_blank">Link
Rob thanks for filling for Dr.Masters look forward to the trip pictures in the AM
were is this 3+inches of rain over central/south FL going to come from,TWC always way overdoes these precip amounts....
ABC17 here in Tpa just anwsered my question,I wouldn't be so quick to write 93L off as dead,its just spending a couple days in cancun/cozumel area???,wouldn't you???.....93L=TS ana tuesday night/wed?????
93l going going gone ....
as was posted earlier

1197. Levi32
East Atlantic tropical wave is still exhibiting excellent low-to-mid-level turning, but convection is pretty much non-existent. We'll see what happens with it tomorrow.
Quoting jeffs713:

October. hehe. Seriously, its going to need to be pushed out of the way, and the only 2 things that can do that are tropical systems and cold fronts. This being the end of June... don't bet on a cold front.

The high itself is subtropical in nature, and there usually is one parked somewhere around this latitude, although further west.


This is just brutal. I mean, come on, 95 degrees by 9am is a bit ridiculous! ::sigh::
so say if 93L stuck around around the yucatan for another day or 2 and then merged w/a stalling frontal boundry draped across the GOM and central FL tuesday???? or what might happen if a short wave came along north of the stalled boundry over the GOM?????
Being from Biloxi I can't believe I am even saying this... but please please send us a lil somethin tropical. A wave or a depression would be just fine. We are dry dry dry and hot hot hot!
1201. JRRP
1202. dis1322
man what a hot day we had here in south texas . mann wee really neeedd the rainnnnn !!!!!!!!!! !!! :(
there is no more 93l its gone
1204. Levi32
Quoting stillwaiting:
so say if 93L stuck around around the yucatan for another day or 2 and then merged w/a stalling frontal boundry draped across the GOM and central FL tuesday???? or what might happen if a short wave came along north of the stalled boundry over the GOM?????


If you're trying to say that a passing shortwave or frontal boundary would kick-start development, I don't think so. Both features would serve only to shear and squish ex-93L further, and it doesn't need that. It will be drifting very slowly westward or NW over the next several days and eventually it, or whatever is left, will get pulled north.
it is'nt even an AOI at the moment
1206. Levi32
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it is'nt even an AOI at the moment


It would be if it hadn't been stronger than this yesterday. People tend to discount things that have already come down off of a previous level of expectation. I don't care how bad it looks it's a bad idea to ignore surface troughs in the Gulf of Mexico. Put it on the back burner but be aware of it until it's gone.
let me rephrase that,the tail end of a stationary boundry....
000
FZNT24 KNHC 290324
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

GMZ089-290930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROUGH MEANDER OVER CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH
MON NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE MOVE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE MON
NIGHT MERGING WITH TROUGH AND CONTINUING W ACROSS BAY OF
CAMPECHE TUE THROUGH WED.

$$
GMZ080-290930-
NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
1030 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.TONIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH FRI...N OF 27N W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
S OF 27N SE TO S WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 FT.

$$
GMZ082-290930-
SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W
1030 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...E OF 93W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT SHIFT
SE TUE THROUGH FRI. SEAS 3 FT. W OF 93W SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS TUE THROUGH THU.

$$
GMZ084-290930-
MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
1030 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...N OF 25N S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT. S OF 25N SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SCATTERED
TSTMS S OF 25N THROUGH TUE.

$$
GMZ086-290930-
E GULF BETWEEN 81W AND 85W
1030 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 27N.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N OF 27N SW TO W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4
FT. S OF 27N S TO SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N OF 25N SW TO W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
S OF 25N SE TO S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES

Last one for the night... not much out there to look at.


AOI

AOI
Quoting BiloxiGirl:
Being from Biloxi I can't believe I am even saying this... but please please send us a lil somethin tropical. A wave or a depression would be just fine. We are dry dry dry and hot hot hot!

Hi Biloxi...if you get what you wish for remember to be grateful!
1211. Levi32
Quoting stillwaiting:
let me rephrase that,the tail end of a stalling stationary boundry....


If the trough drifted that far north, it's possible, but we have no way of knowing exactly where or how fast this thing will move now. It appears that it is temporarily anchored to the Yucatan due to the day-time land thermal low. It will probably go somewhere tonight, but not very far.
1212. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:
Last one for the night... not much out there to look at.


AOI

AOI


I'd think about updating those images if I were you lol....they're almost 48 hours old.
Levi,
I think you should become a doctor.
Quoting Levi32:


It would be if it hadn't been stronger than this yesterday. People tend to discount things that have already come down off of a previous level of expectation. I don't care how bad it looks it's a bad idea to ignore surface troughs in the Gulf of Mexico. Put it on the back burner but be aware of it until it's gone.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Cycloneoz have you tried to hold yourself in place with Wonder Putty during a Storm could be the new pitchman.


(I was thinkin' somethin' more like this maybe...)
CycloneOz here for Mighty Mend-it!
In this demo, I'm to be hit with hundreds of glass slivers. When the onslaught is over, I'll use Mighty Mend-It to piece myself back together again!


Yeah, I could pitch the stuff.
1215. Levi32
Quoting Chicklit:
Levi,
I think you should become a doctor.


What do you mean by doctor?
Quoting Levi32:


I'd think about updating those images if I were you lol....they're almost 48 hours old.

Smartass... I update them every couple hours.


hmmmmm
1217. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:

Smartass... I update them every couple hours.


Um....I'm still seeing the MCC east of Honduras from 48 hours ago on that image....and all your previous updates since that time came and went..
Quoting Levi32:


What do you mean by doctor?

A medical doctor.
'Don't ignore things 'til there gone' is a good quality to have in the profession of treating illnesses. You have the right attitude for a doctor. Look for everything and be smart about it! Just a suggestion since you said you thought the meteorological field was pretty narrow.
HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI

SECURITE

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

1220. Levi32
Quoting Chicklit:

A medical doctor.
'Don't ignore things 'til there gone' is a good quality to have in the profession of treating illnesses. You have the right attitude for a doctor. Look for everything and be smart about it! Just a suggestion since you said you thought the meteorological field was pretty narrow.


Oh I see. Interesting thought. I don't think the Meteorological field is narrow just hard to get into and get a position that pays decently. It's my range of interests that's narrow lol. I need to find things I can see myself doing for a living.
1221. Michfan
Quoting Levi32:


Um....I'm still seeing the MCC east of Honduras from 48 hours ago on that image....and all your previous updates since that time came and went..


Same here.
I worked for a doctor for many years (originally from Brooklyn) who earned both his bachelor's and masters in physics at NYU in four years. Then got his Ph.D. M.D. and worked at Yale, ended up at Stanford. That kind of doctor.
Quoting hurricane2009:


93L is gone, end of story


I think it will stay stationary for a while, become a tropical storm almost in place and then die right there. Just my opinion.
orca the imagest are not updating that your posting friend
orca I see a old image too.....
Oz:Tampa,wednesday,TS....the possibilty is not gone....bout 20%,IMO...


this is the picture i see
Cycloneoz your idea sounds a little to tough for me but seriously good luck with what ever you do. I always go to the opposite side of my house to watch a storm, a little dangerous but not to bad. Its hard to believe what you see and here sometimes. But the after effects of the storm literally bl..
Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
I say all eyes east towards Africa.
am back well it looks like theres no convection and now its time to r.i.p 93L maybe future 94L in the east atlantic will come something all it really needs is convection cause theres a cyclonic turning with that wave
i no whats talk about El Nino whats new on that???
I sent you an e-mail, P-man! :)

1235. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:
i no whats talk about El Nino whats new on that???


Not much.....El Nino can't really change in 3 days. Expecting a weak event through the early winter.
Quoting Levi32:


Not much.....El Nino can't really change in 3 days. Expecting a weak event through the early winter.




i take it
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


this is the picture i see

Prettty darned droopy if you ask me....
Quoting gordydunnot:
Cycloneoz your idea sounds a little to tough for me but seriously good luck with what ever you do. I always go to the opposite side of my house to watch a storm, a little dangerous but not to bad. Its hard to believe what you see and here sometimes. But the after effects of the storm literally bl..


I hear ya...the aftermath really sucks. That's why the good folks at Portlight.org need as much support as possible.

The other aid agencies are "cut and run" outfits. They're gone in two weeks. Portlight.org volunteers and supports stay on sight for as long as possible providing relief to as many as possible.

We should all be thankful that such people regularly contribute to this blog! :) They are special special individuals!


Hmm this is different..and the clouds are finally right
'nite all...fun listenen' to ya.
thats better orca
Yep you are right oz the dam storms can pretty much destroy a city ie. Andrew. tens of thousands left dade never to return. I new some people who got emotionally chucked up years latter if they were anywhere close to the eye. I was on opposite side of dade cat 2 maybe.
later chicklet iam off myself in 5 min or so


dead invest
As Doc Holiday would say 93l was just a little to hi strung.Also goodnight one and all.
later all catchin some zzzzz see ya in am
Quoting gordydunnot:
As Doc Holiday would say 93l was just a little to hi strung.Also goodnight one and all.


That comment made me chuckle!

I'm off to get some rest! Did alot of ground work with Portlight.org today and it has tired me out!

My white miniature schnauzer, Lexi...bids a fond adieu as well! :)


OK, I found some new cloud generators
Any one still on the blog?

I have a hypothetical question. If a system was just beginning in the GOMEX right now, what would the environmental conditions be like for that system??
Orca:

Lol - new cloud generators? If you could package that and send them out, you could make a fortune!

Quoting zoomiami:
Orca:

Lol - new cloud generators? If you could package that and send them out, you could make a fortune!



ROFLMAO, had to find new places to get clouds.. the google ones are FUBAR
1253. Levi32
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Any one still on the blog?

I have a hypothetical question. If a system was just beginning in the GOMEX right now, what would the environmental conditions be like for that system??


Becoming favorable with an upper anticyclone over top during the next 48 hours, then increasing shear by 72 hours as the upper trough pushes down from the north. I'm still keeping a close eye on ex-93L. Surface troughs in the GOM should always be watched.
Tennis:

very basically, low shear, warm waters, and circulation at the surface, not just in the mid levels.
Interesting blog lately - I don't know why I feel like I'm watching a middle school class.....
I can even use the GOES Imagery now :)
Levi - could you please make sure that if its going to do something, it goes to Texas and rain on them. We've had plenty of rain, and I'm too busy to deal with anything else right now, lol.
Quoting zoomiami:
Tennis:

very basically, low shear, warm waters, and circulation at the surface, not just in the mid levels.


Interesting. So, the conditions that were squashing and shearing ex-93L are now gone? Am I correct?

MMMM interesting. Look at the WGOMEX, in 144hrs
Hi Tennis,

I'm really not sure about the current conditions, although since they started reporting on 93L they said it would be in a better position to develop after it cleared the Yucatan.

Even being in a better environment, if there isn't enough energy left in the system, it can't spin up.

1262. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:
I can even use the GOES Imagery now :)


Lol I'm about to blow your new imagery out of the water in a few minutes ;)
1263. Levi32
Quoting zoomiami:
Levi - could you please make sure that if its going to do something, it goes to Texas and rain on them. We've had plenty of rain, and I'm too busy to deal with anything else right now, lol.


I'll do my best lol.
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Tennis,

I'm really not sure about the current conditions, although since they started reporting on 93L they said it would be in a better position to develop after it cleared the Yucatan.

Even being in a better environment, if there isn't enough energy left in the system, it can't spin up.



I agree. But, could there be more energy from the surface trough - not necessarily just from ex-93L?? I am just starting to see what Levi has been saying.

I was just looking at a WV loop of the GOMEX and it looked highly favorable to me. Very little dry air, low shear, and the ULL has finally moved to the West. Also, there is NHC discussion of an upper level cyclone moving into the area. Isn't this enough to possibly favor another system in the GOMEX???

Just a thought to ponder...to make the blog a little more interesting :)
1265. Levi32
Quoting tennisgirl08:


I agree. But, could there be more energy from the surface trough - not necessarily just from ex-93L?? I am just starting to see what Levi has been saying.

I was just looking at a WV loop of the GOMEX and it looked highly favorable to me. Very little dry air, low shear, and the ULL has finally moved to the West. Also, there is NHC discussion of an upper level cyclone moving into the area. Isn't this enough to possibly favor another system in the GOMEX???

Just a thought to ponder...to make the blog a little more interesting :)


Well ex-93L IS the trough. Odds are against it developing but I always watch surface troughs for mischief in the GOM. If there is enough moisture we could get more thunderstorms popping tomorrow. I'm not completely writing it off yet.
1266. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:


Well ex-93L IS the trough. Odds are against it developing but I always watch surface troughs for mischief in the GOM. If there is enough moisture we could get more thunderstorms popping tomorrow. I'm not completely writing it off yet.


LOL!! I am still learning - but this blog is definitely helping. Maybe a rebirth could happen? Who knows?
1269. Levi32
I think I'm out for the night. Goodnight all see you tomorrow.
How about another Twave through the area in a couple days? I think the one behind 93L's ride is supposed to go through the SGOM by midweek. . .
Quoting BahaHurican:
How about another Twave through the area in a couple days? I think the one behind 93L's ride is supposed to go through the SGOM by midweek. . .


you never know.
Well, I also have to bug out. Got an early start tomorrow, and a late stop tonight isn't going to make it easier....

G'nite!
Ex-93L no longer on the Tropical Weather Outlook.

For the next few days, I think I'm going to shift my attention to the East Atlantic. I personally don't expect development but it at least deserves to be adknowledged.
Quoting weatherblog:
Ex-93L no longer on the Tropical Weather Outlook.

For the next few days, I think I'm going to shift my attention to the East Atlantic. I personally don't expect development but it at least deserves to be adknowledged.


Perhaps that wave will eventually sneak up on us and become convectively active close to home, as 93L did.

Any and all African waves bear watching, no matter the time of year, since, though they will likely not develop in the far eastern Atlantic in June or July, they can, and often do, develop into tropical cyclones close to home.
Although it won't be visible in the United States, a total solar eclipse will occur over Asia and the Pacific Ocean -- for 6 minutes and 39 seconds -- on July 22. Eclipse expert Fred Espenak, of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, offers details at http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse.html.
1277. scott39
93L is not done yet. it still has a circulation. look for monday to be interesting.
Look whats just coming off Africa, and it has spin


Link
1279. IKE
Quoting scott39:
93L is not done yet. it still has a circulation. look for monday to be interesting.


Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on June 29, 2009

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Blake
System off Africa fell apart. All is quiet.
Hey Ike. what do you think of the spin coming off Africa?
Has to be watched for development.... right?
1283. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hey Ike. what do you think of the spin coming off Africa?
Has to be watched for development.... right?


Might as well watch it. Not much else to watch.
TRANQUIL TROPICS
The tropical atlantic is now very quiet with none of the models forcasting any development the next seven days. shear has ramped up a bit inthe central caribbean as well as the atlantic east and northeast of the lesser antilles. water vapour imagery shows dry sinking air in the eastern atlantic while the caribbean has some showers due to an ULL east of cuba. a tropical in the mid atlantic although showing a little swirl in the lower levels is devoid of any convection due to the stable atmosphere ther brought on by an upper level ridge. over the african coast there are two impressive looking tropical waves , one at 10 w and the other at 10e. there is also an area off the coast showing some form of cyclonic turning, but that too is devoid of any convection. with the sst still cool in the far eatl and the stable air in the central atl those waves will have a torrid time in trying to develop into any thing. with that said tropical storm activity does not seem possible in the near future
Good morning everyone :)
What, less than ten comments since 4 a.m.? LOL

Well, looks relatively clear here for now, with hazy skies but no rain. Wonder if this is the "beginning of the end" for the heavy rain, or if we have another week's worth to go.
Here is the 8 AM EDT discussion about the new wave.

<.A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS LIKELY MOVED OFF THE W
AFRICAN COAST AND IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 20W S OF 17N. THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY IN THIS AREA SHOW THIS
WELL-DEFINED FEATURE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT AND COINCIDING WITH A
RATHER HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE COVERAGE OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO...CYCLONIC MOTION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EVIDENT NEAR THIS FEATURE. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSES FROM DAKAR
SENEGAL INDICATE AN ABRUPT SHIFT OF ANOMALOUS FLOW BELOW THE 750
MB LEVEL FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 28/1200
UTC...INDICATING THAT WAVE PASSAGE LIKELY OCCURRED AT DAKAR
AROUND THAT TIME. THIS FEATURE COINCIDES WITH A DISTINCT MAXIMUM
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. THUS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BE ADDED
TO THE 29/1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLC.
/strong>
One Tampa met just said that the stations own model is forming a TD or weak TS to form in the gulf and come towards Tampa on Wednesday night. Is he smoking something or did conditions change?
Quoting CaneWarning:
One Tampa met just said that the stations own model is forming a TD or weak TS to form in the gulf and come towards Tampa on Wednesday night. Is he smoking something or did conditions change?


LOL!!!!!
1290. WxLogic
Morning...
If microwaves were targeted or focused on a condensate filled downdraft within a storm cell, could it be heated enough to disrupt circulation?
I know typical radar and microwaves are to weak for this, but if it was done with a high power system intentionally, could a hot burst be used to disorganize structured circulation and weaken a storm?
1292. WxLogic
Interesting... ORL, FL will hopefully be getting a new Hurricane R&D Facility by 2012. Very nice...
Quoting CaneWarning:
One Tampa met just said that the stations own model is forming a TD or weak TS to form in the gulf and come towards Tampa on Wednesday night. Is he smoking something or did conditions change?
maybe he is not smokin enough
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe he is not smokin enough


Actually, he just showed the stations computer models and sure enough it had a low coming into the Tampa area as a 45 MPH tropical storm.
QS of the wave off the african coast showing a LLC


Link
Which station was that??
Quoting BobinTampa:
Which station was that??


The one that uses Titan. I think that is ABC?
Well, Titan is no Klystron 9 :o)

Although Klystron 9 did have all the moisture coming our way, it just didn't develop it into anything.

Quoting CaneWarning:
One Tampa met just said that the stations own model is forming a TD or weak TS to form in the gulf and come towards Tampa on Wednesday night. Is he smoking something or did conditions change?



abc17????in TPA,said the same thing last night,which means the model has been showing some consistancy and showed the same thing last night a frontal boundry stalling in the GOM and 93L being energized,then moving east towards the TPA area as a strengthening TD,a TS and landfall somewhere close to the TPA area,if there's a chance I'm watching it and stillwaiting!!!!,lol...
Quoting stillwaiting:



abc17????in TPA,said the same thing last night,which means the model has been showing some consistancy and showed the same thing last night a frontal boundry stalling in the GOM and 93L being energized,then moving east towards the TPA area as a strengthening TD,a TS and landfall somewhere close to the TPA area,if there's a chance I'm watching it and stillwaiting!!!!,lol...


I just went to their website and they do mention tropical moisture mixing with the cold front will lead to heavy rains in the Tampa area. This looks like a wet week.
the Tampa Bay ABC affiliate's weathercast on their website (wfts.com) makes no mention of it. just shows us getting a lot of rain on Tuesday.
there is no 93L its been deactivated
Quoting BobinTampa:
the Tampa Bay ABC affiliate's weathercast on their website (wfts.com) makes no mention of it. just shows us getting a lot of rain on Tuesday.


No, it does make mention of it...or at least the tropical moisture part.

Link
1305. K8eCane
i actually see a little spin just off the nortwest tip of Cuba. Should i smoke another one?
When's Dr Masters returning from his European trip?
1307. surfmom
Quoting stillwaiting:



abc17????in TPA,said the same thing last night,which means the model has been showing some consistancy and showed the same thing last night a frontal boundry stalling in the GOM and 93L being energized,then moving east towards the TPA area as a strengthening TD,a TS and landfall somewhere close to the TPA area,if there's a chance I'm watching it and stillwaiting!!!!,lol...


kinda like a festering Zit -- surfers are all eyeballing this too!

Off to work -- going to be muddy, mucky, muggy, buggy, -- horses --gotta love them and the job.

Got some nice rides on the surfboard yesterday Stillwaiting - no time today, got a feeling that rip is going to be vicious. Adios
1308. K8eCane
ooops
tropical system on carolina coast next week
Quoting surfmom:


kinda like a festering Zit -- surfers are all eyeballing this too!

Off to work -- going to be muddy, mucky, muggy, buggy, -- horses --gotta love them and the job.

Got some nice rides on the surfboard yesterday Stillwaiting - no time today, got a feeling that rip is going to be vicious. Adios


Surfmom you are right, the NWS just put out the Hazardous Weather Outlook and they do mention strong rip currents. They recommend not going in above the knee.
1310. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MINIMAL WITH MAIN THREATS CONTINUING TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. HOWEVER...WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW CANNOT RULE OUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
LIMITED TO MOSTLY UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TODAY THANKS TO THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS. OVERALL THE PRESENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO
MORNING UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
1311. HTV
Quoting K8eCane:
i actually see a little spin just off the nortwest tip of Cuba. Should i smoke another one?

Only if you share with others.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Surfmom you are right, the NWS just put out the Hazardous Weather Outlook and they do mention strong rip currents. They recommend not going in above the knee.


Can I have the link where to find out about that? I would like to check before I take my kids to the beach this week....also have family coming next month.
got a quick 45minutes of fishing in last night around sunset,the waves were knocking me around a little bit,I'll be off to start my second day of training at my new job in a bit!!!!
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Can I have the link where to find out about that? I would like to check before I take my kids to the beach this week....also have family coming next month.


Where are you located? My link would just show Tampa Bay.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


Invest 93L

Invest 93L


Trying a few new things.... hope it works this time
orca, what is that large cloud mass south of cuba?
It’s Now Legal to Catch a Raindrop in Colorado

DURANGO, Colo. — For the first time since territorial days, rain will be free for the catching here, as more and more thirsty states part ways with one of the most entrenched codes of the West.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Where are you located? My link would just show Tampa Bay.


Winter Springs, FL --- we ususally go to New Smyrna Beach
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Winter Springs, FL --- we ususally go to New Smyrna Beach


Use this link - just click on the county with the beach you are going to and then read any Hazardous Weather Outlook that is posted.
Link
Quoting CaneWarning:


Use this link - just click on the county with the beach you are going to and then read any Hazardous Weather Outlook that is posted.
Link


Thanks so much!!!
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Thanks so much!!!


I hope that helps. I didn't see any rip tide mentioned for the east coast.
OK ...something needs to happen .. I read this blog to not only learn but to help me get through the work day... not enough work to do here....I am soo bored. But at least I have a job 8-)
Quoting AussieStorm:
When's Dr Masters returning from his European trip?
today aussie but may take a day or two to get back into the swing of things
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
OK ...something needs to happen .. I read this blog to not only learn but to help me get through the work day... not enough work to do here....I am soo bored. But at least I have a job 8-)

I definitely agree there. Some days, I hardly have time to breathe. Other days... I browse the blogs looking for something interesting while I'm waiting for some report to run.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
today aussie but may take a day or two to get back into the swing of things


Thanks mate
the COC of the CV wave is just south of CV
Link
watch the last 12 frames

Also looks like mid-level spin just south of Cuba
Link