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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Mother Nature's face is not aging slowly or gracefully

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:49 PM GMT on April 22, 2013

"Mother Nature's face is not aging slowly or gracefully, the wrinkles and scars caused by accumulating greenhouse gases are already visible. The good news? Extreme weather is also chiseling fissures and gaping holes in the climate deniers' bunker, leaving a crumbling foundation for their arguments. Moving on, it's time to prepare for the unusual weather ahead that is likely to become usual." So writes Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers in her short essay for Earth Day 2013, "The Changing Face of Mother Nature." Dr. Francis' piece is part of a special Earth Day 2013 microsite wunderground has put together, featuring original short essays from seven of the planet's leading climate scientists and climate science communicators. Today is a day to appreciate our planet which sustains all life, a day to reflect on its beauty, and a day to draw attention to the challenges we face to maintain a livable environment for our steadily growing population. Below is a short synopsis of our seven contributors' work.


Figure 1. My favorite wunderphoto of 2012: high-level cirrus clouds containing ice crystals act as prisms, creating this beautiful "Sky Painting" captured by wunderphotographer Doesiedoats over Williams, Oregon on August 7, 2012. As is my tradition on Earth Day, I provide links at the bottom of my Earth Day post to my favorite wunderphotos taken by the wunderground community over the past year. Keep on looking up and sharing your view of the sky!

The Increased Risk of Drought under Global Warming
Drought is the greatest threat civilization faces from climate change, because drought affects the two things we need to live--food and water. Drought expert Dr. Aiguo Dai of SUNY Albany reviews the latest drought predictions from climate models and their "dire projection of increased risk of severe droughts," in his piece, "The Increased Risk of Drought under Global Warming".

The Changing Face of Mother Nature
It seem as though the weather gods have gone berserk in recent years, as nearly every day the headlines report unusual droughts, floods, prolonged cold and snow, heat waves, or unusual weather events happening somewhere around the globe. Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers explains how the unprecedented melting of sea ice and snow in the Arctic may be contributing to this onslaught in her contribution, "The Changing Face of Mother Nature."

My Climate Change
"I used to be very skeptical about global warming, unconvinced that humans had anything to do with it or that it was affecting the weather," writes Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist for The Weather Channel. "But then that changed." Find out why he changed his mind in his piece, "My Climate Change."

Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change
The general public think less than half of climate scientists agree that humans are causing global warming. The reality is 97%. Dr. John Cook, Climate Change Communication Fellow for the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland, explains the challenges of climate science communication in his contribution, "Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change."

The Arctic's Shrinking Sea Ice Cover
The emerging view is that the Arctic will lose essentially all of its summer sea ice cover by the end of this century, perhaps as early as 2030-2040. Dr. Mark Serreze, Director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, discusses the implications in his post, "The Arctic's Shrinking Sea Ice Cover."

How Do We Know Humans are Responsible for Global Warming?
We know Earth is warming, but how do we know that human activities are primarily responsible? Dr. Michael Mann of Penn State explains the evidence in his contribution, "How Do We Know Humans are Responsible for Global Warming?"

Is This Global Warming?
Lately, whenever there is a severe weather or climate event that causes a lot of damage - like a severe heatwave, drought, hurricane or tornado - scientists are asked some version of the question, "Is this global warming?" Dr. Noah Diffenbaugh of Stanford University explains what climate science can and cannot say about the answer to this question in his piece, "Is This Global Warming?"

Other Earth Day contributions
Wunderground Community member Skyepony has contributed a piece called "Earth Day 2013: Waiting to Get Fracked."

A new documentary called Thin Ice follows scientists at work in the Arctic, Antarctic, Southern Ocean, New Zealand, Europe and the USA.  They talk about their work, and their hopes and fears, with a rare candor and directness. This creates an intimate portrait of the global community of researchers racing to understand our planet's changing climate. Over 100 college campuses and art theaters are hosting screenings this week.

Jeff Masters
Caroline Bruenn Photography
Caroline Bruenn Photography
dust storm over Alamogordo
Strange sky..
Strange sky..
in Mossy head Fl. I've never seen the clouds quite like this in N. Florida.
Lighthunt
Lighthunt
Odd Cloud
Odd Cloud
Odd cloud near Beaver Rim in Wyoming
A Little Light...
A Little Light...
Amazing what sunlight, river debris and a little skim of ice can produce!
Haboob #7
Haboob #7
Another dust storm rolling into town.

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc..Unfortunately earth day isn't giving me a day off.Georgia storms it wasn't meant to be funny..You'll be surprised how far people will go for ratings..I'm not retarded..For those that are helping good job and continue to keep this earth clean and livable.
Thanks Doc!


The "Tropical Cyclones - A Preparedness Guide" has just been updated and is available for download.
With less than six weeks to go before the start of the Atlantic season, it's a great resource.
Here is the link

Link
Thanks Doc. Happy Earth Day folks
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks Doc!!
Thanks Doc, Everyone have a Nice Earth Day....
The red River is slowly rising at Fargo almost reaching the action line
From the Guardian:

How the burning of fossil fuels was linked to a warming world in 1938

This month marks the 75th anniversary of Guy Callendar's landmark scientific paper on anthropogenic climate change

Seventy-five years ago this month an amateur weather-watcher from West Sussex published a landmark paper in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society directly linking the burning of fossil fuels to the warming of the Earth's atmosphere.

Guy Callendar was a successful steam engineer by trade, but in his spare time he was a keen meteorologist. In April 1938, his paper, "The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature" (pdf), which built on the earlier work of John Tyndall and Svante Arrhenius, was published with little fanfare or impact. It was only in the proceeding decades that the true significance of his conclusions would be heralded.

To mark the anniversary, two modern-day climatologists have published a co-authored paper (pdf) in the same journal celebrating not just his legacy, but also illustrating with modern techniques and data just how accurate Callendar's calculations proved to be.

Dr Ed Hawkins of the University of Reading's National Centre for Atmospheric Science, who co-authored the paper with Prof Phil Jones at the University of East Anglia, describes why Callendar is so significant to the development of climate science:

In hindsight, Callendar's contribution was fundamental. He is still relatively unknown, but in terms of the history of climate science, his paper is a classic. He was the first scientist to discover that the planet had warmed by collating temperature measurements from around the globe, and suggested that this warming was partly related to man-made carbon dioxide emissions…People were sceptical about some of Callendar's results, partly because the build-up of CO2 in the atmosphere was not very well known and because his estimates for the warming caused by CO2 were quite simplistic by modern standards. It was only in the 1950s, when improved instruments showed more precisely how water and CO2 absorbed radiation, that we reached a better understanding of its importance. Scientists at the time also couldn't really believe that humans could impact such a large system as the climate – a problem that climate science still encounters from some people today, despite the compelling evidence to the contrary.

[…]

Here is the illustration produced by Hawkins and Jones to show how Callendar's findings, published in 1938 and updated in 1961, match a modern-day temperature reconstruction (CRUTEM4) of global land temperatures for the period 1850-2010.


Comparing historical reconstructions of near-global land temperatures using CRUTEM4 (black, Jones et al. 2012) with Callendar (1938) (red) and Callendar (1961) (blue), using a reference period of 1880-1935. The CRUTEM4 estimates are for 60◦S-60◦N (to accord with Callendar’s series), with grey shading representing the 95% uncertainty. Image: Ed Hawkins and Phil D. Jones

Complete article >>
Here in southern Manitoba Canada, we're experiencing our latest spring in 141 years of weather records (since 1872) This follows our earliest spring on record last year which brought early season warmth that we've never recorded before. So we've basically experienced 2 once-in-a-lifetime springs in back to back years, both with dramatically different weather than "normal". When you go from the earliest onset of spring in memory to the latest just one year later, you have to wonder what bigger factors are in play here. Is "abnormal" our new normal??
The April update for the EUROSIP multi-model forecast of Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies is out.

Yet another unhelpful forecast.

Today Nature Climate Science:

Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature

Human-induced climate change causes significant changes in local climates1, 2, which in turn lead to changes in regional climate zones. Large shifts in the world distribution of Köppen–Geiger climate classifications by the end of this century have been projected3. However, only a few studies have analysed the pace of these shifts in climate zones4, 5, and none has analysed whether the pace itself changes with increasing global mean temperature. In this study, pace refers to the rate at which climate zones change as a function of amount of global warming. Here we show that present climate projections suggest that the pace of shifting climate zones increases approximately linearly with increasing global temperature. Using the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, the pace nearly doubles by the end of this century and about 20% of all land area undergoes a change in its original climate. This implies that species will have increasingly less time to adapt to Köppen zone changes in the future, which is expected to increase the risk of extinction5.

Sorry abstract only, the complete paper is behind a paywall.




Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The April update for the EUROSIP multi-model forecast of Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies is out.

Yet another unhelpful forecast.



And will be also unhelpful in terms of the May MSLP forecast.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And will be also unhelpful in terms of the May MSLP forecast.

Interestingly enough, the EUROSIP tercile mean for May-June-July through July-August-September has below-average pressures across much of the basin, especially the Caribbean.



(Lower pressures directed right at the USA)




Seems to be weighted towards a cool Neutral despite the large spread.
Thank You Dr. The attached photographs are stunning. Interesting to see that we are the first generation, in the history of mankind, to actually document climate change in a scientific manner.

I truly wonder how the current observed "anomalies" around the Earth, as they are often described, stack up against past warming events (or cooling events for that matter) and whether the same signals were present back then when CO2 levels from human emissions were not present.

No matter how good current measurements are, and current computer modelling, we will never know exactly what the climate signals were back then to make modern day analog comparisons.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Interestingly enough, the EUROSIP tercile mean for May-June-July through July-August-September has below-average pressures across much of the basin, especially the Caribbean.



(Lower pressures directed right at the USA)




Seems to be weighted towards a cool Neutral despite the large spread.


That is a game changer if it verifies as it knocks off what the operational had.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The April update for the EUROSIP multi-model forecast of Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies is out.

Yet another unhelpful forecast.



it averages at average.

expect average.(neutral)
Quoting bappit:

Yup. An interesting article for sure. Thanks.

Edit: A bit of what it says:

"The researchers zeroed in on the Northern Hemisphere%u2019s temperature outlier, Greenland ice cores, and found that the conversion of oxygen isotope ratio to temperature typically used on the ice cores did not account for the sort of crash climate change occurring during the Younger Dryas. It assumes prevailing winds and jet streams and storm tracks are providing the moisture for Greenland precipitation from the Atlantic Ocean.

"%u201CThe Laurentide ice sheet, which covered much of North America down into the northern United States, is getting smaller as the Younger Dryas approaches,%u201D Carlson says. %u201CThat%u2019s like taking out a mountain of ice three kilometers high. As that melts, it allows more Pacific Ocean moisture to cross the continent and hit the Greenland ice sheet.%u201D

"The two oceans have distinctly different ratios of oxygen isotopes, allowing for a different isotope ratio where the water falls as snow."

Upshot is that the Greenland ice cores have been misinterpreted as being colder than it actually was.


No problem!

Yeah I found both these articles interesting because they involve a valid critiquing of the accuracy of ice core samples. Obviously, its not that they are useless by any means, they are very valuable for climate science and other purposes. However, some seem to give the impression that ice core data reveals infallible conclusions, sarcastically speaking, about weather on climate in the past when that just isn't true.

While ice cores are valuable, there are still some issues, and there is still plenty I think we don't know. There definitely should continue to be research done in testing their accuracy.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Interestingly enough, the EUROSIP tercile mean for May-June-July through July-August-September has below-average pressures across much of the basin, especially the Caribbean.



(Lower pressures directed right at the USA)




Seems to be weighted towards a cool Neutral despite the large spread.


That's bad news!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The April update for the EUROSIP multi-model forecast of Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies is out.

Yet another unhelpful forecast.


It is quite helpful if you would interpret the results as "it is probable that the index will remain in the plus or minus .5C range".
After 5.80" of rain in my area so far this month the ground has become quickly saturated infact anymore heavy rain today could cause some flooding problems. Saw 3 flood advisories yesterday as storms basically weren't moving. I picked up 2.20" yesterday but some areas close to orlando received 4" of rain. Good news everything is green now and cutting the grass has become a twice a week job.
yet no suggestions at stemming the rising human population supposedly driving global warming... especially not from the over breeders who are making bank from touting human caused global fevers. Go figure.
Thank You Dr. Masters for a great Earth Day post..
From last blogs " Weather Whiplash " to todays blog " Wrinkles on the Earth "..
I'm starting to think your stuck in the "W's "..
Just kidding..Lol.. :)
The articles written by the seven contributors makes for interesting reads..
I don't agree with all they wrote but all in all intelligent articles with some musings thrown in..
Thanks again for the excellent post..


Almost pulled back to the coastline. I am under the cloud just to the right of image center. It is 59.2F

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thank You Dr. The attached photographs are stunning. Interesting to see that we are the first generation, in the history of mankind, to actually document climate change in a scientific manner.

I truly wonder how the current observed "anomalies" around the Earth, as they are often described, stack up against past warming events (or cooling events for that matter) and whether the same signals were present back then when CO2 levels from human emissions were not present.

No matter how good current measurements are, and current computer modelling, we will never know exactly what the climate signals were back then to make modern day analog comparisons.
Those images are stunning, indeed. I especially like the ground-hugging lenticular clouds shot in Wyoming. I lived below Beaver Rim and worked atop it, so I crossed it twice a day for many months. Desolate, lonely, and beautiful...

It's true that scientists will likely never know "exactly" how things were back in the day, but there exist mountains of verifiable and accurate proxy data to tell us general conditions with great specificity. So while we can't say, "The surface temperature of the ancient lake where Fargo now sits was 44F on July 9, 7500 BCE", scientists can state with great confidence that a particular area was generally X number of degrees warmer or colder, or X percent wetter or drier, many tens of thousands of years ago. And that's how we know the current anthropogenic changes to the climate are unprecedented in at least the past several hundred thousands of years, and probably far longer than that.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
After 5.80" of rain in my area so far this month the ground has become quickly saturated infact anymore heavy rain today could cause some flooding problems. Saw 3 flood advisories yesterday as storms basically weren't moving. I picked up 2.20" yesterday but some areas close to orlando received 4" of rain. Good news everything is green now and cutting the grass has become a twice a week job.


It all depends on which part of Florida you live, my parents back home in the Tampa Bay area told me the other day that we don't even have grass in the front lawn its been dry so long now, its sand mixed with completely dead bits of grass and plant remains. It's the first time that's happen at my house and we've lived there for 12 years. When I visited during Spring break the grass was already completely brown, so I would imagine its looks like a sand dune practically now lol.


Apparently they also mentioned a drainage pond near me just went completely dry which would definitely be a first I've ever remembered that happening. The crazy thing is that it was overflowing all summer last year.

You couldn't tell by looking that we had 64 inches of rain for the year of 2012, beneficial rains dry up fast in Florida's sand and limestone base if they aren't frequent, even if torrential rain was non stop just several months ago.
For the first time in a very longtime Record Lows out numbered record highs in the US per TWC.
Not really sure why forecasters continue to slap high rain chances on the board for West Central Florida, while there will be rain still on the east and southeast side of the state dry air has already moved into the west side of the state. If heavy rain failed to materialize with deep moisture of PW's over 1.75 and an upper disturbance along with cool air aloft, than they certainly won't with a PW of a measly 1.2 to 1.3 and falling with a westerly flow and no disturbance.

Rain chances should in reality be should be 10 to 20% at best, there probably won't be a single shower on the west side of Central Florida today.
Quoting Jedkins01:


It all depends on which part of Florida you live, my parents back home in the Tampa Bay area told me the other day that we don't even have grass in the front lawn its been dry so long now, its sand mixed with completely dead bits of grass and plant remains. It's the first time that's happen at my house and we've lived there for 12 years. When I visited during Spring break the grass was already completely brown, so I would imagine its looks like a sand dune practically now lol.


Apparently they also mentioned a drainage pond near me just went completely dry which would definitely be a first I've ever remembered that happening. The crazy thing is that it was overflowing all summer last year.

You couldn't tell by looking that we had 64 inches of rain for the year of 2012, beneficial dry up fast in Florida's sand and limestone base if they aren't frequent.


I know it must be frustrating living in Tampa watching all the rain go north, inland, or south of Tampa. The Orlando area and over to the coast have been getting hammered lately Melbourne has had 5.26" so far this month and that's over 3" above average. These totals are typical of the wet season.
Quoting stormygace:
yet no suggestions at stemming the rising human population supposedly driving global warming... especially not from the over breeders who are making bank from touting human caused global fevers. Go figure.
Although our population growth rate cannot continue status quo indefinitely, no change will occur until the consequences of an unsustainably high population bite all of us in the butt directly- which is far from occurring. And if any of you believe that legislation will help the problem, think again. All population control will do is cause civil unrest and collapse of governing bodies.

I personally believe human experimentation into altering genetic code is the most threatening activity we partake in.

Mother nature will always heal herself. We may destroy the atmospheric balance, may melt the ice caps, may remove 80% of species, may even make ourselves extinct, but as long as we do not destroy every seed of life, nature will return.

Yet, if we start to edit the code of life itself which has been in existence for unknown eons, the perfectness that is nature will never come back, and may never be corrected, even after we're gone.

The human population is currently being genetically "cursed" by our current diet consisting (for the first time in history) of genetically modified plants and animals. We can expect our third or fourth generations to be all but sterile. (Which I'm sure many of you "green" socialist eugenicists wouldn't mind so much.)

The talk of population control is very dangerous. Better to concern yourself with more direct issues such as the health of your digestive tract. :p

Peace

Earth's Current Warmth Not Seen in the Last 1,400 Years or More, Says Study

Excerpt:

Fueled by industrial greenhouse gas emissions, Earth's climate warmed more between 1971 and 2000 than during any other three-decade interval in the last 1,400 years, according to new regional temperature reconstructions covering all seven continents. This period of manmade global warming, which continues today, reversed a natural cooling trend that lasted several hundred years, according to results published in the journal Nature Geoscience by more than 80 scientists from 24 nations analyzing climate data from tree rings, pollen, cave formations, ice cores, lake and ocean sediments, and historical records from around the world.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Although our population growth rate cannot continue status quo indefinitely, no change will occur until the consequences of an unsustainably high population bite all of us in the butt directly- which is far from occurring. And if any of you believe that legislation will help the problem, think again. All population control will do is cause civil unrest and collapse of governing bodies.

I personally believe human experimentation into altering genetic code is the most threatening activity we partake in.

Mother nature will always heal herself. We may destroy the atmospheric balance, may melt the ice caps, may remove 80% of species, may even make ourselves extinct, but as long as we do not destroy every seed of life, nature will return.

Yet, if we start to edit the code of life itself which has been in existence for unknown eons, the perfectness that is nature will never come back, and may never be corrected, even after we're gone.

The human population is currently being genetically "cursed" by our current diet consisting (for the first time in history) of genetically modified plants and animals. We can expect our third or fourth generations to be all but sterile. (Which I'm sure many of you "green" socialist eugenicists wouldn't mind so much.)

The talk of population control is very dangerous. Better to concern yourself with more direct issues such as the health of your digestive tract. :p

Peace



Ahh population control, well we all know where that sort of thinking comes from. Either fear, madness, or just people with a "cold heart", no matter what the motive, none of it is rational thinking and it is very sad to me that anyone would come to accept it.
More deep tropical moisture pours in FL come Sunday and into next week. This pattern coming up favors inland and west coast of FL thunderstorms typical of the wet season. Seems an early start to the rainy season for FL.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
For the first time in a very longtime Record Lows out numbered record highs in the US per TWC.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
For the first time in a very longtime Record Lows out numbered record highs in the US per TWC.


wasnt that true for a week in late march and maybe another in early april?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I know it must be frustrating living in Tampa watching all the rain go north, inland, or south of Tampa. The Orlando area and over to the coast have been getting hammered lately Melbourne has had 5.26" so far this month and that's over 3" above average. These totals are typical of the wet season.


Yeah its really weird, I'm not sure I've seen it happen before. I've seen where rainfall gets imbalanced in parts of the state during the rainy season but its usually for periods of a few weeks to a month at most. Typically over a few months the "left out" region will catch up on rainfall, even if its not exact, at least it happens somewhat, which isn't happening at all so far.

I'm a little worried that rain might come back to the region with a bang, the west of Florida including the Tampa Bay area can see some insane rainfall event sometimes as the gulf gets really hot given the right weather pattern. I've experienced multiple 10 inch plus rain events and countless 3 to 5 inch events since living there, which supposedly isn't supposed to be that frequent anywhere no matter where you live.

The one good news is that flood potential is pretty limited from rainfall in the Tampa Bay area for a lot of reasons, even Debby still produced relatively nuisance flooding in low lying areas compared to what what normally be water rescues and house floating away from the same rain event in many other regions of the country, lol.

I've seen "Thin Ice". Excellent documentary.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


wasnt that true for a week in late march and maybe another in early april?


Per TWC first time in a longtime. They didn't go into detail as to how long. Some on here are always quick to drop the numbers on all the record highs but when they get out numbered by record lows you here nothing about it on this blog.
good read doc for earth day
nice photos
thanks for the update

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Interestingly enough, the EUROSIP tercile mean for May-June-July through July-August-September has below-average pressures across much of the basin, especially the Caribbean.



(Lower pressures directed right at the USA)




Seems to be weighted towards a cool Neutral despite the large spread.


Now everything matches, the best model and the only one who was outlier come together with the consensus...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
For the first time in a very longtime Record Lows out numbered record highs in the US per TWC.
Over the last two days according to Hamweather there have been 491 record low temps set vs only a measly 5 record high temps or a ratio of 98 to 1. I know Mn shattered an all time low for the state on Saturday. The new record blew by the old, the new record is minus 14F. The old record was zero.
Meanwhile here in Tallahassee, now sign of drought anymore. When I first moved into my apartment here in January we literally did not see any measurable rain through at least early February. It was horrible dry. However since we have had a number of major rain events and everything is nice and green with the drought officially gone completely.

Unfortunately we haven't had many exciting thudnersotrm events yet or really high rainfall rate events, most of it has been pacific northwest type of rains. Cool and overcast with overruning steady to occasionally heavy rains all day. This is because most of our rain has fallen from stalled warm front events on the gulf coast.

Although the one really strong thunderstorm event we had was ironically during a day with a only a 30% chances of "a few showers" and no expected severe whatsoever. During that day in late February we had a hail storm come through with a really large amount of hail mostly nickel to quarter size and a occasionally even golf ball size along with some exciting lightning as well.

It was funny because there was a breakout of severe cells around Tallahassee that day, completely unexpected. Yet since we've had numerous slight risks and watch boxes that haven't produced much of anything besides some showers and a few thunderstorms.
Quoting nymore:
Over the last two days according to Hamweather there have been 491 record low temps set vs only a measly 5 record high temps or a ratio of 98 to 1. I know Mn shattered an all time low for the state on Saturday. The new record blew by the old, the new record is minus 14F. The old record was zero.


for april?
for that date?
Quoting Jedkins01:


Ahh population control, well we all know where that sort of thinking comes from. Either fear, madness, or just people with a "cold heart", no matter what the motive, none of it is rational thinking and it is very sad to me that anyone would come to accept it.


I think it came from Star Trek..... :P

However, it may eventually become true regardless of whether we accept it or not.
Same as many say of global warming.

Tehcnically the population wont increase forever without of going to another planet.

I dont think the population would ever reach, 1 trillion for example.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
For the first time in a very longtime Record Lows out numbered record highs in the US per TWC.

First time since early January.



Credit to Nea for this graph.

With a big warm-up in the West and Central USA expected over the coming days, this probably won't last.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


for april?
for that date?
For that date and the second half of April, Many records falling around here. Snow on the ground records, snowfall records, ice out (on lakes) latest date to reach x temp and low records. Everyday they are pulling out the pencil and erasing the old and writing in the new.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Per TWC first time in a longtime. They didn't go into detail as to how long. Some on here are always quick to drop the numbers on all the record highs but when they get out numbered by record lows you here nothing about it on this blog.


"Can i get a hot tub"..LOL
The brainwashing continues..............
The Weather Channel declared Winter Storm Zeus this morning, the final of 26 available winter storm names for the year. From this point on, if it is decided that another storm needs a name, The Weather Channel will start over at "Achilles", using the naming list provided by a high school in Montana.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel declared Winter Storm Zeus this morning, the final of 26 available winter storm names for the year. From this point on, if it is decided that another storm needs a name, The Weather Channel will start over at "Achilles", using the naming list provided by a high school in Montana.


Assuming they do this again next year (a pretty safe assumption in my opinion), does this mean that they will start off where they left off like they do on the WPac naming lists?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel declared Winter Storm Zeus this morning, the final of 26 available winter storm names for the year. From this point on, if it is decided that another storm needs a name, The Weather Channel will start over at "Achilles", using the naming list provided by a high school in Montana.



Wouldn't a storm named Achilles tendon to be a pain so late in the season?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Per TWC first time in a longtime. They didn't go into detail as to how long. Some on here are always quick to drop the numbers on all the record highs but when they get out numbered by record lows you here nothing about it on this blog.
Some on here never talk about the numbers on all the record highs, but when they get out numbered by record lows they finally speak out on this blog. Funny, ain't it? ;-)

For the year-to-date, record lows (and low maximums) in the US crept above record highs (and high minimums) on Friday. That's the first time that situation has existed since February 12, 2011. Of course, since January 1, 2011, record highs of all types have outnumbered record lows of all types across the US by roughly 135,000 to 52,000, or nearly 2.6 to 1. (In fact, record highs in either 2011 alone or 2012 alone still outnumber record lows over the past 27 and a half months combined.)

Quoting 1900hurricane:

Assuming they do this again next year (a pretty safe assumption in my opinion), does this mean that they will start off where they left off like they do on the WPac naming lists?

Yeah. If they name Achilles at the end of this month, the next winter named...let's say, in November...would be "Bacchus".
does continental drift have any effects on the global weather?..way back in school they said in the far future north america will meet europe, yes maybe thousands of years but right now, did or does continental drift affect the weather at all?
NWS has upped the projected snowfall totals closer to a foot for Minneapolis, this would be 6-10+" based on uncertainty:

Tonight Snow, mainly before 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 29. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Minneapolis is nearing an all-time record for April snow, I think it is only 7 inches away or so. It is a wee bit easier to stomach this storm considering there is the potential for 70 degrees this weekend. Regardless, I will be in a tee and shorts at any temp over 50.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Wouldn't a storm named Achilles tendon to be a pain so late in the season?


What a heel.:)
Hey guys I hope that this Saturday there will be no tornados or bad storms in the US
Because for the past few years there has been bad storm and/or tornados on the 27 of April and I hate it down to my guts because 27 April is my birthday and I'm in good mood till the broadcast of the storm/tornados start to roll in
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah. If they name Achilles at the end of this month, the next winter named...let's say, in November...would be "Bacchus".

They should have named Sandy if they were naming winter storms, but I guess it had enough hype already.
Quoting nymore:
I know Mn shattered an all time low for the state on Saturday. The new record blew by the old, the new record is minus 14F. The old record was zero.
The NCDC has no official record of any all-time monthly low temperatures set or tied in Minnesota this month. In fact, cold though it's been, there have been no all-time monthly lows met or set in the entire upper Midwest (or the Northeast) this month. There have been 73 total all-time monthly lows, but all but seven of those have been west of the Mississippi.
Happy Earth Day!

Earth Day gives us the opportunity to think about how we can better take care of our home planet. This year, Weather Underground challenges you to look beyond the traditional environmental conservation efforts, and explore ways that you can reduce your greenhouse gas emissions.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The NCDC has no official record of any all-time monthly low temperatures set or tied in Minnesota this month. In fact, cold though it's been, there have been no all-time monthly lows met or set in the entire upper Midwest (or the Northeast) this month. There have been 73 total all-time monthly lows, but all but seven of those have been west of the Mississippi.
Does it say Saturday or April. Just wondering how you got April out of Saturday.
Quoting Jedkins01:

Another issue with ice cores (sorry, don't remember the link) is that air bubbles tend to migrate upwards slightly as the ice compacts. That puts the air bubbles a bit later in time than actual. But then we have multiple proxies, not just ice cores.
Quoting Ighuc:
NWS has upped the projected snowfall totals closer to a foot for Minneapolis, this would be 6-10+" based on uncertainty:

Tonight Snow, mainly before 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 29. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Minneapolis is nearing an all-time record for April snow, I think it is only 7 inches away or so. It is a wee bit easier to stomach this storm considering there is the potential for 70 degrees this weekend. Regardless, I will be in a tee and shorts at any temp over 50.
That sucks. 2013 a year with no spring
we have a storm off the east coast here.
Happy Earth Day everyone! I planted my share of trees today. :D Thanks for sharing those pictures Doc!
Am still watching that area of high pressure south of Alaska for potential implications on the tracks of [what should be] many tropical cyclones in the upcoming hurricane season.

It remains very strong and displaced well east. I went and looked and haven't found a year that's analogous to the current 500mb pattern, though 2008 is kind of close.



It's forecast to remain displaced well east at the same intensity for at least the next two weeks as well.
we have a low off the east coast!!
Since 1951, these are the years in which depressions or tropical cyclones developed in the month of May.

1953 - 1
1959 - 1
1969 - 1
1970 - 1
1971 - 1
1972 - 1
1974 - 1
1976 - 1
1981 - 1
1987 - 1
1988 - 1
1990 - 1
1993 - 1
2007 - 1
2008 - 1
2009 - 1
2012 - 2

In the two very active years, 2004 and 2005, which are also analogue years for 2013, no storms developed until June or July.
Winter just won't leave Central NC... it's pretty chilly outside today.
Quoting luvtogolf:
The brainwashing continues..............



???
A teleconnection song for TA: "Radar Love".
Quoting Grothar:
Since 1951, these are the years in which depressions or tropical cyclones developed

1953 - 1
1959 - 1
1969 - 1
1970 - 1
1971 - 1
1972 - 1
1974 - 1
1976 - 1
1981 - 1
1987 - 1
1988 - 1
1990 - 1
1993 - 1
2007 - 1
2008 - 1
2009 - 1
2012 - 2

In the two very active years, 2004 and 2005, which are also analogue years for 2013, no storms developed until June or July.

Depressions or tropical cyclones developed...in every year.
spring weather coming soon.
More Colorado Snow
Just started snowing again in Longmont, CO. Forecast is for 2” to 7” on the plains. The mountains east of the divide are looking at another 8” to 14”. The recovery in snowpack has been remarkable. We have gone from what looked like a disaster, severe water shortages with many farmers not planting, to a manageable dry year. Had last year not been very dry we would probably be looking at few if any water restrictions.
On March 1 the key basins had the following snowpack as a percent of normal:
• Gunnison – 77%
• Upper Colorado – 73%
• South Platte – 65%
• Laramie & North Platte – 74%
As of today they look like this:
• Gunnison – 88%
• Upper Colorado – 103%
• South Platte – 90%
• Laramie & North Platte – 102%
Hopefully tonight’s storm will drop an inch or two of liquid as a last push before it dries up latter in the week. On a personal note my camping/fishing lake west of Ft Collins for the fourth of July was nearly empty at the end of last year. On March 1 the snotel sight above it had 10.5 inches of snow water equivalent (63% of normal), today it had 21.5 inches of snow water equivalent (96% of normal). Thanks to nearly a foot of liquid in less than two months I may yet be able to get the boat on the water for this year’s trip.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W...
JUST OFF THE BORDER WITH SIERRA LEONE...TO 5N15W AND 3N21W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21W TO 2N30W 2N35W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF
2N3W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM
4N TO 6N BETWEEN 34W AND 52W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO SPEED DIVERGENCE THAN TO
THE ITCZ. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N87W IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 27N86W. THE REST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N88W 24N89W...TO 20N89W IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF FLORIDA...TOWARD MIAMI/FORT LAUDERDALE... AND CURVING
TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W 28N79W 26N81W 24N83W. THIS
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... FLORIDA...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND POSSIBLY CUBA.

THE OBSERVATIONS FOR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS
STATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES AT 12000 FEET OR LOWER.
PATTERSON MEMORIAL AIRPORT IN PATTERSON LOUISIANA IS REPORTING A
LOW CLOUD CEILING OF 200 FEET. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL
SECTIONS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ICAO STATION KHQI IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS
WITH HAZE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT ICAO STATION
KGUL...ICAO STATION KMYT...AND ICAO STATION KSPR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
20N60W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N62W AND 14N63W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND
FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNT FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT
22/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE IS 0.26 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERTATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WIND
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF
79W. THE WIND FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE ELSE...AND
IT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 20N60W 14N65W 13N66W TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH AMERICA IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N60W 12N70W 12N76W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W
AND 81W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
25N65W...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N66W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N76W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 6N83W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
COLOMBIA...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W
AND 79W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 72W. A
WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO 31N77W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SPREADING EASTWARD...FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 70W AND 82W FROM CUBA
NORTHWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 25N65W... ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...AND INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N66W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N50W...TO A SECOND AND
WEAKENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N60W...INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N62W AND 14N63W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 27N38W...TO 29N36W 24N35W 21N40W 20N46W AND 21N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N33W 21N38W 20N46W
21N55W 27N60W BEYOND 31N60W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W
Quoting LargoFl:
does continental drift have any effects on the global weather?..way back in school they said in the far future north america will meet europe, yes maybe thousands of years but right now, did or does continental drift affect the weather at all?


Nothing you would measure-- and any changes (barring, say, the appearance or disappearance of a structure like the Isthmus of Panama, which altered ocean circulation patterns, would be so slow as to be almost unnoticeable. This would be far-future stuff, not on the order of thousands, but on the order of tens of millions of years away.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some on here never talk about the numbers on all the record highs, but when they get out numbered by record lows they finally speak out on this blog. Funny, ain't it? ;-)

For the year-to-date, record lows (and low maximums) in the US crept above record highs (and high minimums) on Friday. That's the first time that situation has existed since February 12, 2011. Of course, since January 1, 2011, record highs of all types have outnumbered record lows of all types across the US by roughly 135,000 to 52,000, or nearly 2.6 to 1. (In fact, record highs in either 2011 alone or 2012 alone still outnumber record lows over the past 27 and a half months combined.)



And why is it when anyone mentioned cold weather (even if it is short term) you always discount and bring up temps from years past?
Quoting nymore:
Does it say Saturday or April. Just wondering how you got April out of Saturday.



How did he get april out of saturday???????
Quoting nymore:
That sucks. 2013 a year with no spring


Oh perhaps, although I would much rather have the cold last longer than the hot come sooner. These late-season heavy snowfalls are fun, just not for driving through. Although it will be nice to be able to go places not covered in boots and a heavy coat.

7.8" of snowfall would be needed for snowiest Minneapolis April on record. Records of course mean nothing, but it will at least serve as a reminder to future generations that this has been one wacky winter (spring).
Quoting LargoFl:
does continental drift have any effects on the global weather?..way back in school they said in the far future north america will meet europe, yes maybe thousands of years but right now, did or does continental drift affect the weather at all?


The position of the continents affects the climate. For example, when there is a landmass at one of the poles (i.e. Antarctica), the climate is likely to be cooler as snow is likely to accumulate on the landmass and create ice caps. As plates with rock layers containing hydrocarbons subduct, the carbon dioxide is released into the mantle and eventually into the atmosphere, but this process typically takes millions of years.

Lots of other mechanisms can affect the climate. There are perhaps more interconnections between plate tectonics and what goes on above the surface than we realize.
Quoting luvtogolf:


And why is it when anyone mentioned cold weather (even if it is short term) you always discount and bring up temps from years past?

Yeah, more to the point would be the warmth above the Canadian archipelago. Cold air goes south, warm air goes north.

Then again, radiational cooling kicked in big time to create a shallow layer of extra cold air to get temps this low in April. Not a big deal on the planetary scale anyway.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Depressions or tropical cyclones developed...in every year.


You cut off the last line which reads "in the month of May." :) :P
Quoting hurricanes2018:
Happy Earth Day!

Earth Day gives us the opportunity to think about how we can better take care of our home planet. This year, Weather Underground challenges you to look beyond the traditional environmental conservation efforts, and explore ways that you can reduce your greenhouse gas emissions.




Link, in case the video itself doesn't work.

They're building these in the United States too.
Quoting Grothar:
Since 1951, these are the years in which depressions or tropical cyclones developed

1953 - 1
1959 - 1
1969 - 1
1970 - 1
1971 - 1
1972 - 1
1974 - 1
1976 - 1
1981 - 1
1987 - 1
1988 - 1
1990 - 1
1993 - 1
2007 - 1
2008 - 1
2009 - 1
2012 - 2

In the two very active years, 2004 and 2005, which are also analogue years for 2013, no storms developed until June or July.
I'm guessing these are cyclones that was developed before June 1?
.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some on here never talk about the numbers on all the record highs, but when they get out numbered by record lows they finally speak out on this blog. Funny, ain't it? ;-)

For the year-to-date, record lows (and low maximums) in the US crept above record highs (and high minimums) on Friday. That's the first time that situation has existed since February 12, 2011. Of course, since January 1, 2011, record highs of all types have outnumbered record lows of all types across the US by roughly 135,000 to 52,000, or nearly 2.6 to 1. (In fact, record highs in either 2011 alone or 2012 alone still outnumber record lows over the past 27 and a half months combined.)

I think all he was doing was stating a fact.No harm no foul.
Quoting luvtogolf:
The brainwashing continues..............


Yep! Fortunately we have plenty of scientists that think AGW is a joke...


http://theolympiareport.com/wwu-scientist-debunks -lawmakers-myths-about-co2-climate-change/" target="_blank">Link
Quoting luvtogolf:


And why is it when anyone mentioned cold weather (even if it is short term) you always discount and bring up temps from years past?
Because a) I don't to that, and b) the fact that record highs the world over are outnumbering record lows by an increasingly wide margin on a decade-by-decade basis is of far greater scientific importance than highs and lows being roughly balanced over a four-month period.

I'll be busy for awhile, but I will be happy to answer any other questions you may have. Thanks!
Let's try this again as previous link didn't work.

http://theolympiareport.com/wwu-scientist-debunks -lawmakers-myths-about-co2-climate-change/
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm guessing these are cyclones that was developed before June 1?


Now you are a gentleman. The last line got cut off for some reason and I edited it. But unlike TA, (who is supposed to be one of my oldest friends on here), you very delicately covered for me. Thanks Blue.

Now I will be waiting for TA to post an incorrectly dated graph.
Quoting bappit:

Another issue with ice cores (sorry, don't remember the link) is that air bubbles tend to migrate upwards slightly as the ice compacts. That puts the air bubbles a bit later in time than actual. But then we have multiple proxies, not just ice cores.


Yeah I read an article about the issue with behavior of air bubbles in the ice cores as well, I think it may have been the same article you're thinking of.



Quoting Grothar:


Now you are a gentleman. The last line got cut off for some reason and I edited it. But unlike TA, (who is supposed to be one of my oldest friends on here), you very delicately covered for me. Thanks Blue.

Now I will be waiting for TA to post an incorrectly dated graph.
Grothar as you mentioned in the active years of 2004 and 2005 no storms formed before June(and in 04 July).Soneven if we don't get a storm to form in May and June this year doesn't mean it'll be a automatic bust.
Quoting stormygace:
yet no suggestions at stemming the rising human population supposedly driving global warming... especially not from the over breeders who are making bank from touting human caused global fevers. Go figure.


Increasing population means more energy will be needed. No one suggests otherwise. But we aren't going to fix our current climate problem by reducing the population.

Population growth is expected to peak in a few decades and then start a gradual decrease. While we could decrease the height of the peak (and should decrease it) that is not the solution.

--

Very simply. We need to drastically cut the amount of fossil fuel we burn.

--

We have the technology we need to move away from fossil fuels.

The cost of a renewable energy grid would be lower than the cost of our current fossil fuel grid.

The cost of driving with electricity is a small percentage of the cost of driving with petroleum.

Yes, there would be some short term costs, but not prohibitively high. Like the expense of the interstate highway, some money spent up front would pay off with huge dividends.

Link


Interesting, it's only a matter of time before we do determine there is a planet very similar to earth and and its climate, however long it may take to confirm this, if and when it does, people will go nuts.

Based on the way things are progressing with the Kepler space telescope, its mind blowing the number of planets that are being discovered, it would seem its very likely that there exists plenty of planets in our galaxy alone capable of supporting life.

However, it will be quite a while before we are able to prove if alien life does actually exist or not on other planets. Well, at least for now. Until we invent a means of traveling across the galaxy much faster, we will never know for sure.

Its really cool anyways though regardless.
Petroleum is still being pushed hard

Esri Petroleum GIS Conference
Quoting Neapolitan:
Because a) I don't to that, and b) the fact that record highs the world over are outnumbering record lows by an increasingly wide margin on a decade-by-decade basis is of far greater scientific importance than highs and lows being roughly balanced over a four-month period.

I'll be busy for awhile, but I will be happy to answer any other questions you may have. Thanks!


A) yes you do all the time because you have done it to me. Explain to me what is wrong with stating a fact that it was colder than normal yesterday, last week, the last four months? No one is discounting GW but simply starting a fact that in one part of the world it had been cold over a short period of time. I see the same data you do that over the past 365 days that record highs outnumber lows by a 3:1 margin. But isn't it nice that over the past 30 days we are getting a break with lows significantly outnumbering highs? But I guess that shouldn't be mentioned here?
Quoting Ighuc:


Oh perhaps, although I would much rather have the cold last longer than the hot come sooner. These late-season heavy snowfalls are fun, just not for driving through. Although it will be nice to be able to go places not covered in boots and a heavy coat.

7.8" of snowfall would be needed for snowiest Minneapolis April on record. Records of course mean nothing, but it will at least serve as a reminder to future generations that this has been one wacky winter (spring).
I for one am just hoping Summer will fall on a weekend this year.
Quoting Grothar:


Now you are a gentleman. The last line got cut off for some reason and I edited it. But unlike TA, (who is supposed to be one of my oldest friends on here), you very delicately covered for me. Thanks Blue.

Now I will be waiting for TA to post an incorrectly dated graph.
Quoting luvtogolf:


A) yes you do all the time because you have done it to me. Explain to me what is wrong with stating a fact that it was colder than normal yesterday, last week, the last four months? No one is discounting GW but simply starting a fact that in one part of the world it had been cold over a short period of time. I see the same data you do that over the past 365 days that record highs outnumber lows by a 3:1 margin. But isn't it nice that over the past 30 days we are getting a break with lows significantly outnumbering highs? But I guess that shouldn't be mentioned here?
No.Everything is suppose to be hot hot hot and we are suppose to die in the next 10 years.You didnt know!?.lol.I expect one of these 10 years a Day After Tomorrow scenario to happen.New York will be 40 feet underwater California will have a plains style tornado outbreak and a 235mph hurricane with gust upward of 300mph will happen in Hawaii.Yes we will all die.




And catastrophic global warming


Quoting RitaEvac:


And catastrophic global warming


Yes I can see the tidel wave coming.Im going to run into this library hoping they have two floors and the a taxi cab will crash through the window.
103. yoboi
Quoting BobChecks:


Increasing population means more energy will be needed. No one suggests otherwise. But we aren't going to fix our current climate problem by reducing the population.

Population growth is expected to peak in a few decades and then start a gradual decrease. While we could decrease the height of the peak (and should decrease it) that is not the solution.

--

Very simply. We need to drastically cut the amount of fossil fuel we burn.

--

We have the technology we need to move away from fossil fuels.

The cost of a renewable energy grid would be lower than the cost of our current fossil fuel grid.

The cost of driving with electricity is a small percentage of the cost of driving with petroleum.

Yes, there would be some short term costs, but not prohibitively high. Like the expense of the interstate highway, some money spent up front would pay off with huge dividends.



Let's just go back to the horse and buggy days while we are at it we can pull down the henry ford statue with the same horses. let's shut down the internet get rid of the electrical grid and learn to rub 2 sticks together to create a fire I am in are you?????
Quoting stormchaser19:


Now everything matches, the best model and the only one who was outlier come together with the consensus...


The mean of 4 models does not mean that every one of those models agrees with each other. The ECMWF is still a major outlier. The EUROSIP is a mean of the ECMWF, UKMET, CFS, and the French model. The other three outweighed the ECMWF solution, but the ECMWF hasn't changed.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Link


Interesting, it's only a matter of time before we do determine there is a planet very similar to earth and and its climate, however long it may take to confirm this, if and when it does, people will go nuts.

Based on the way things are progressing with the Kepler space telescope, its mind blowing the number of planets that are being discovered, it would seem its very likely that there exists plenty of planets in our galaxy alone capable of supporting life.

However, it will be quite a while before we are able to prove if alien life does actually exist or not on other planets. Well, at least for now. Until we invent a means of traveling across the galaxy much faster, we will never know for sure.

Its really cool anyways though regardless.



I not sure but the nearer habitable planet that has been discovered is Kepler-22b and is about 600 light years of the earth...imagine if and 1 light year is equivalent to km = 9 ,460, 730, 472 580,8 km, Digit that is TOTALLY IMPOSIBLE TO REACH According to Albert Einstein, if we reach 98% of the ligth velocity we need 602 year to get there!!!


SO: Take care the earth
Quoting Levi32:


The mean of 4 models does not mean that every one of those models agrees with each other. The ECMWF is still a major outlier. The EUROSIP is a mean of the ECMWF, UKMET, CFS, and the French model. The other three outweighed the ECMWF solution, but the ECMWF hasn't changed.
But then we should expect the ECMWF to change for the next forecast in May?
Quoting yoboi:


Let's just go back to the horse and buggy days while we are at it we can pull down the henry ford statue with the same horses. let's shut down the internet get rid of the electrical grid and learn to rub 2 sticks together to create a fire I am in are you?????


No, I'm "not in".

I'm for more advanced technology than we now enjoy. More abundant, cheaper, cleaner energy. Cheaper transportation.

A more livable planet.

I've no desire to return to the past or even linger in the 20th Century.
109. etxwx
Quoting RitaEvac:
Petroleum is still being pushed hard

Esri Petroleum GIS Conference


Interesting link Rita, thanks.
Check the session agenda - there is a workshop called "Health, Safety, and Environment - Responding to Change" and one of the units is...
Quote: Climatically Thinking: The Role of GIS in Increasing Resilience of O&G Projects to the Effects of Climate Change
Paola Peroni, Exprodat Consulting Ltd.; Mark Mackintosh, Claverton Associates Ltd
"Climate change, from sea level rise and coastal erosion to irregular rainfall patterns and permafrost thawing, is being recognized as a key issue for the O&G industry. The long life cycle of O&G assets means an integrated evaluation of climate change induced risks to new and existing infrastructure needs to become an integral part of the industry's risk assessment approach.

Adaptation is one of the strategies that companies can put in place to manage risks associated with increasingly intense extreme events and incremental changes induced by climate change. There is a critical role for ArcGIS to be a key management tool, supporting the identification of key adaptation strategies. This presentation describes how ArcGIS is used to evaluate and identify climate related risk and adaptation techniques from the early screening stages, enabling increased resiliency of new developments to be designed in from the start, and risks managed throughout the life cycle of a project."


I'm not sure if that is irony or chutzpah...
Quoting nymore:
Does it say Saturday or April. Just wondering how you got April out of Saturday.
Oh, I see what happened. You wrote, "I know Mn shattered an all time low for the state on Saturday". In the context of temperature records, the term "all-time" is generally reserved for "since recordkeeping began". If you were speaking of just a single day of the year, you would more correctly have stated, "Minnesota recorded its lowest April 20 temperature ever."

At any rate, the coldest official reading for April 20 to have been tallied so far is -11F at COOP station Tower 2S in St. Louis County, breaking the old record of 6F set in 1897, while the lowest ASOS reading was 4F in International Falls. (FWIW, on 4/20, 11 daily cold records broke previous daily records by double-digit margins. Pretty impressive, if you ask me.)

I see that International Falls has experienced single-digit temperatures as late as May 17. That would be sort of depressing... :-)
111. yoboi
Quoting BobChecks:


No, I'm "not in".

I'm for more advanced technology than we now enjoy. More abundant, cheaper, cleaner energy. Cheaper transportation.

A more livable planet.

I've no desire to return to the past or even linger in the 20th Century.


If we have so much advanced technology why is co2 rising daily???????
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I think it came from Star Trek..... :P

However, it may eventually become true regardless of whether we accept it or not.
Same as many say of global warming.

Tehcnically the population wont increase forever without of going to another planet.

I dont think the population would ever reach, 1 trillion for example.


Well in all honesty, our planet could actually support a much larger population than it has, the problem is the humanity is more broken than anything else. We are by nature self centered consumers, obviously we have ability and awareness to appose our natures and seek good, but good isn't our nature and will, for us to think so is self deception. If our nature was good, it wouldn't have problems that it has.

If we did things properly, our population would not be a problem at all. I realize I'm getting into ideals here, however its better to shoot for compassionate ideals than cold ones.

Besides, if we learn to actually manage our resources better, we'll actual have the technology to colonize on other planets like star trek before population literally becomes too high.

Now if the population actually reached 1 trillion, I think it is safe to say that is indeed overpopulation, but the population would never get that high even if we did manage our world and society properly.



A true American Patriot Link
Quoting Gearsts:
But then we should expect the ECMWF to change for the next forecast in May?


You can't predict what a computer will spit out.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Grothar as you mentioned in the active years of 2004 and 2005 no storms formed before June(and in 04 July).Soneven if we don't get a storm to form in May and June this year doesn't mean it'll be a automatic bust.


I never mentioned a bust.
Quoting yoboi:


If we have so much advanced technology why is co2 rising daily???????


Because we continue to burn too much fossil fuel.

Having the technology available and installing it are two different things.

CO2 emissions are no longer rising in the US and most of Europe. They aren't falling as fast as we need for them to, but they are falling.

Much of the rest of the world is behind but almost every country is working on the problem.

China expects to peak in a few years. They have greatly increased their renewable energy targets.

72 degrees, 35% humidity, clear beautiful Spring sky, All that's missing is Louis Armstrong singing "What a Wonderful World"

"Mother Nature's face is not aging slowly or gracefully, the wrinkles and scars caused by accumulating greenhouse gases are already visible. The good news? Extreme weather is also chiseling fissures and gaping holes in the climate deniers' bunker, leaving a crumbling foundation for their arguments." -Dr. Jennifer Francis

Yeah, Dr. Francis. It sure is great news that "extreme weather" (disasters) are helping to put a dent in the other side's point of view.

Might want to re-word that statement next time.
Quoting etxwx:


Interesting link Rita, thanks.
Check the session agenda - there is a workshop called "Health, Safety, and Environment - Responding to Change" and one of the units is...
Quote: Climatically Thinking: The Role of GIS in Increasing Resilience of O&G Projects to the Effects of Climate Change
Paola Peroni, Exprodat Consulting Ltd.; Mark Mackintosh, Claverton Associates Ltd
"Climate change, from sea level rise and coastal erosion to irregular rainfall patterns and permafrost thawing, is being recognized as a key issue for the O&G industry. The long life cycle of O&G assets means an integrated evaluation of climate change induced risks to new and existing infrastructure needs to become an integral part of the industry's risk assessment approach.

Adaptation is one of the strategies that companies can put in place to manage risks associated with increasingly intense extreme events and incremental changes induced by climate change. There is a critical role for ArcGIS to be a key management tool, supporting the identification of key adaptation strategies. This presentation describes how ArcGIS is used to evaluate and identify climate related risk and adaptation techniques from the early screening stages, enabling increased resiliency of new developments to be designed in from the start, and risks managed throughout the life cycle of a project."


I'm not sure if that is irony or chutzpah...


I'll be at this conference
All time record low for the state would be correct.

This is from the Mn Climatology Office

The temperature plummeted to -14 degrees F in Embarrass (St. Louis County). This was the coldest temperature ever recorded in Minnesota on April 20. The previous statewide record for Minnesota on April 20 was zero degrees, measured in Cloquet in 1928. Not only was -14 degrees a statewide record for April 20, it was the coldest temperature ever observed in Minnesota during the second half of April.

IOW it has never been colder in the state, anywhere in the state on that date.
Quoting LargoFl:
does continental drift have any effects on the global weather?...did or does continental drift affect the weather at all?
Absolutely. Geographical features influence the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Changing these features will result in a change in the atmospheric and oceanic circulation.
122. yoboi
Quoting BobChecks:


Because we continue to burn too much fossil fuel.

Having the technology available and installing it are two different things.

CO2 emissions are no longer rising in the US and most of Europe. They aren't falling as fast as we need for them to, but they are falling.

Much of the rest of the world is behind but almost every country is working on the problem.

China expects to peak in a few years. They have greatly increased their renewable energy targets.




so when china peaks in a few yrs co2 should start falling on a global scale......thanks for the input looks like the future is brighter......
123. yoboi
Quoting nymore:
All time record low for the state would be correct.

This is from the Mn Climatology Office

The temperature plummeted to -14 degrees F in Embarrass (St. Louis County). This was the coldest temperature ever recorded in Minnesota on April 20. The previous statewide record for Minnesota on April 20 was zero degrees, measured in Cloquet in 1928. Not only was -14 degrees a statewide record for April 20, it was the coldest temperature ever observed in Minnesota during the second half of April.

IOW it has never been colder in the state, anywhere in the state on that date.


Thanks for the update......
124. VR46L
Quoting nymore:
All time record low for the state would be correct.

This is from the Mn Climatology Office

The temperature plummeted to -14 degrees F in Embarrass (St. Louis County). This was the coldest temperature ever recorded in Minnesota on April 20. The previous statewide record for Minnesota on April 20 was zero degrees, measured in Cloquet in 1928. Not only was -14 degrees a statewide record for April 20, it was the coldest temperature ever observed in Minnesota during the second half of April.

IOW it has never been colder in the state, anywhere in the state on that date.


It pretty obvious some dont like reading about all these low temps... I cant think why ....


Unless they are like me and are fed up of cooler weather than is seasonal .... LOL
Quoting yoboi:



so when china peaks in a few yrs co2 should start falling on a global scale......thanks for the input looks like the future is brighter......


More accurately, I think, would be to say that the future can be brighter.

If we make the effort.

However if we don't start working hard, all of us, we are almost certainly in for a world of hurt.

On the Atlantic front........Looking like an extra-tropical entity forming out in the East Atlantic around 31W-33N.

Link
Quoting VR46L:


It pretty obvious some dont like reading about all these low temps... I cant think why ....


Unless they are like me and are fed up of cooler weather than is seasonal .... LOL


Perhaps because climate change deniers look around for some cold spot and wave the "Look how cold it is here" flag as if that disproves climate science.

(Just proves they don't understand the complexity of climate.)
More rain here north of Orlando. Heavy squall just came thru. Infact the radar doesn't do justice as the air is so tropical that the rain is actually heavier than it would appear on radar.

Quoting Jedkins01:


Well in all honesty, our planet could actually support a much larger population than it has, the problem is the humanity is more broken than anything else. We are by nature self centered consumers, obviously we have ability and awareness to appose our natures and seek good, but good isn't our nature and will, for us to think so is self deception. If our nature was good, it wouldn't have problems that it has.

If we did things properly, our population would not be a problem at all. I realize I'm getting into ideals here, however its better to shoot for compassionate ideals than cold ones.

Besides, if we learn to actually manage our resources better, we'll actual have the technology to colonize on other planets like star trek before population literally becomes too high.

Now if the population actually reached 1 trillion, I think it is safe to say that is indeed overpopulation, but the population would never get that high even if we did manage our world and society properly.



Well said.

Everyone lately seems to have this mindset that humans are evil and burdensome to the planet that birthed us, however, you have to remember that no other creature on this planet has the ability to escape the planet in event of a catastrophic collision with a large celestial body. We are the lifeboat for all DNA on the planet. We are the ones that have the ability to spread the virus of life to other planets and galaxies.

The Earth can bare a very minor change in atmospheric makeup for the sake of mankind's mission, which in my opinion, is to assure the survival of this mysterious genetic code we found ourselves made of.

"We are stardust; we are golden, and we've got to get ourselves back to the garden."
Wet pattern returning again to FL by this Sunday and then there is this. Interesting!

News, blogs and social media can provide insight into activities that should be monitored, but the volume of data to be searched is overwhelming and not tied to a specific area of interest – until now. From upstream to downstream, advanced situational awareness is now possible by identifying areas of interest, specifying keywords related to potential threats, and continuously monitoring news and social media sites for references to questionable activities. The challenge lies in accurately linking the reference to a specific location. This presentation highlights the techniques for extracting documents from news and social media sites, how to accurately link them to a specific location, and how to alert users when action may be needed to protect lives and critical infrastructure.
134. ARiot
Frankly I'm more concerned about coal and beef/livestock contributions to AGW than I am gasoline/transportation fuel.

Transportation for luxury can be easily reduced.

Transport of goods will work itself out to preserve profits or things will go back to local.

What I don't see any easy answers for is replacing coal or animal protien sources.

SUVs (or whatever) are easy targets. Hard targets are energy for heating and cooling and protien.

That's my $.02 for Earth Day.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:

On the Atlantic front........Looking like an extra-tropical entity forming out in the East Atlantic around 31W-33N.

Link


Corrected my coordinates on the low....

Here is the pm discussion portion....Looking better organized this afternoon:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 22 2013

A BROAD AND COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N38W THAT SUPPORTS A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N37W. MOST PRECIPITATION GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 27N-34N
BETWEEN 27W-38W.

Link

It's astonishing that anyone still still believes this man made global warming nonsense. It's been completely discredited by multiple scientific studies. There has been no warming since 1995. It's sad that someone as brilliant as Dr. Masters continues to be a propaganda outlet for this false "science".
137. VR46L
Seems to be lots of blue at the moment where most of the world's oceans are contained ....

Quoting nymore:
The temperature plummeted to -14 degrees F in Embarrass (St. Louis County). This was the coldest temperature ever recorded in Minnesota on April 20. The previous statewide record for Minnesota on April 20 was zero degrees, measured in Cloquet in 1928. Not only was -14 degrees a statewide record for April 20, it was the coldest temperature ever observed in Minnesota during the second half of April.
I'm pleased to see that the officials there agree with my assessment, and I'm glad we could help straighten that out.

I'm anxious to see the CPC's US temperature outlook, which should be coming along momentarily. It'll be interesting to see if the northern tier finally catches a break...
139. yoboi
Quoting BobChecks:


Perhaps because climate change deniers look around for some cold spot and wave the "Look how cold it is here" flag as if that disproves climate science.

(Just proves they don't understand the complexity of climate.)


I know, just imagine In 2 yrs that hockey stick guy will have to rename it to just stick.
Gearsts, maybe some hail on Wednesday?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST MON APR 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY AND TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A MID TO UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE PROGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...SATELLITE DERIVED
PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF 25-35 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER THIS STABLE
PATTERN...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
EAST COAST OF UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN EVOLVES OVER
THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH ALOFT WILL
KEEP AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT
LEAST FRIDAY. GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT AND THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS UNTIL 23/00Z. WINDS TO DECREASE GENERALLY TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NO MARINE HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...EXCEPT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY FORM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE.
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET AREA EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS. LONG TERM...MARINE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A SOLID
NE SWELL ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 75 87 / 30 30 20 30
STT 74 86 76 85 / 30 30 10 10
Why doesn't Jeff post anything about the record snowfall we've been seeing across the US? Particularly over the northern and central Plain states. As of today, 17.5% of the nation is covered in snow. This is the greatest percentage recorded for April 22nd, since the NOHRSC opened 10 years ago in 2003. The next closest year in terms of %snow coverage was 2008 with only 12% coverage. Perhaps more significant, is the fact that on April 18th we had 29% of the nation covered in snow. Previously, the latest date on which we had more than 29% or more of the nation covered in snow was April 6th (set in 2009). I know this is only based off a 10 year record so it is not the best climate record, but it is perhaps the best climate record for national snow coverage.

Climate change isn't my favorite blog topic but I'd appreciate it if Dr. Masters' posted on both sides of the equation. Heck, you could even comment on how this may be related to GW. It just seems to me like everyone else in the weather world is talking about how "Spring has been canceled" as noted by the lack of tornadoes, near-record cold, and record snowfall. And yet, little to no mention of it from Jeff. And yea, sea ice is melting, but you also have one of the snowiest years ever for many states in the United States, which happens to be the country most of us, his blog members, live in.

/rant & yes, I know, he can post what he wants...
Quoting MoeHoward:
It's astonishing that anyone still still believes this man made global warming nonsense. It's been completely discredited by multiple scientific studies. There has been no warming since 1995.
Really? I mean, really?! Oh, I am so happy to hear that! Please do us a favor and present a list of those studies! I keep reading that 97%-98% of all credible climate scientists support the idea that the earth is warming and it's man's fault, and virtually every peer-reviewed article published on the subject backs up their claims. As such, it would be quite a relief to discover that the planet wasn't really heating up and that we aren't really the cause. Of course, doing so would require someone to disprove the most basic laws of physics--but if it's been done, I sure would like to know about it, and I'm sure many others would, as well. We'll be waiting. Thanks!
@ MoeHoward (#136)


Quoting ARiot:
Frankly I'm more concerned about coal and beef/livestock contributions to AGW than I am gasoline/transportation fuel.

Transportation for luxury can be easily reduced.

Transport of goods will work itself out to preserve profits or things will go back to local.

What I don't see any easy answers for is replacing coal or animal protien sources.

SUVs (or whatever) are easy targets. Hard targets are energy for heating and cooling and protien.

That's my $.02 for Earth Day.



Replacing coal is easy. We're already doing it.

Part of the replacement is done with natural gas. We need new electricity storage technology in order to cut way back on NG use. There are some very promising new grid storage technologies being developed.

Cutting CO2 by reducing beef/animal protein production and personal transportation is hard. Most people are unwilling to modify their lifestyles. We need solutions which cut greenhouse gases while not causing significant lifestyle changes or utility cost increases.

Heating and cooling aren't that hard.

First, insulate and weatherstrip. That's a very low hanging fruit and will greatly lower heating and cooling energy requirements.

Second, increase the energy efficiency of all new construction. The increase in cost is small and the future savings in energy costs are large. We now build new structures which require little heating and cooling, we've got those skills.

Third, move to more efficient heating and cooling. Ground effect heat pumps are excellent for lowering both air conditioning and heating energy requirements. Even trading out older AC and heating units will help a lot, new technology is generally a lot better.

Huge drop in the Drought Index numbers across C & S FL. Greens now showing up when were we had numbers in the 600 plus range just a few weeks ago.

Look like someone remembered a password to an old handle..
Quoting yoboi:


I know, just imagine In 2 yrs that hockey stick guy will have to rename it to just stick.


More recent research has extended the "handle" of the hockey stick back a few thousand years.

Link

The hockey stick blade is starting to look more like a cliff against which we are smashing ourselves.

6-10 day


8-14 day
Quoting TomTaylor:
Why doesn't Jeff post anything about the record snowfall we've been seeing across the US? Particularly over the northern and central Plain states.

Climate change isn't my favorite blog topic but I'd appreciate it if Dr. Masters' posted on both sides of the equation. Yea, sea ice is melting, but you also have one of the snowiest years ever for many states in the United States, which happens to be the country most of us, his blog members, live in.
You may have missed these entries from just this month, Tom. There are others from March, as well:

--U.S. has a cool and very dry March

--Where's spring? Third winter storm in a week hitting Northern U.S.

--Record snows in SD

So to answer your question, "Why doesn't Jeff post anything about the record snowfall we've been seeing across the US?" it's because he does.
Thank you Canada for thwarting another terror plot!

Weather wise, it looks like i'm going to have a great week! 60's all week long and sunny except for Wednesday. looks good to me
The AO and NAO are forecast go to negative by the start of May, while the PNA index goes positive. All of these changes favor a slightly below-average month.





...and as expected, the CFS forecast is for below-average temperatures across much of the central/eastern USA:



Will have to adjust my forecast some by the start of next month.
Quoting Grothar:


I never mentioned a bust.
No Gro not you.I'm talking about in general people who think season that start off late and doesn't have a storm form in May or June the season is a bust.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Gearsts, maybe some hail on Wednesday?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST MON APR 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY AND TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A MID TO UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE PROGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...SATELLITE DERIVED
PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF 25-35 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER THIS STABLE
PATTERN...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
EAST COAST OF UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN EVOLVES OVER
THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH ALOFT WILL
KEEP AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT
LEAST FRIDAY. GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT AND THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS UNTIL 23/00Z. WINDS TO DECREASE GENERALLY TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NO MARINE HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...EXCEPT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY FORM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE.
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET AREA EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS. LONG TERM...MARINE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A SOLID
NE SWELL ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 75 87 / 30 30 20 30
STT 74 86 76 85 / 30 30 10 10
But thats for the central parts of the island and last time the said that it was too cloudy and no thunderstorm develop.
Quoting MississippiWx:
"Mother Nature's face is not aging slowly or gracefully, the wrinkles and scars caused by accumulating greenhouse gases are already visible. The good news? Extreme weather is also chiseling fissures and gaping holes in the climate deniers' bunker, leaving a crumbling foundation for their arguments." -Dr. Jennifer Francis

Yeah, Dr. Francis. It sure is great news that "extreme weather" (disasters) are helping to put a dent in the other side's point of view.

Might want to re-word that statement next time.



Weird...

Although to be fair, just because someone has a doctorate doesn't mean we should expect their speech to be infallible. We all make mistakes in how we word things sometimes, all of us.

We'll assume the benefit of the doubt rather than suspicion, which I'm trying to make a habit of doing more often.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The AO and NAO are forecast go to negative by the start of May, while the PNA index goes positive. All of these changes favor a slightly below-average month.





...and as expected, the CFS forecast is for below-average temperatures across much of the central/eastern USA:



Will have to adjust my forecast some by the start of next month.


Quoting Neapolitan:
You may have missed these entries from just this month, Tom. There are others from March, as well:

--U.S. has a cool and very dry March

--Where's spring? Third winter storm in a week hitting Northern U.S.

--Record snows in SD

So to answer your question, "Why doesn't Jeff post anything about the record snowfall we've been seeing across the US?" it's because he does.
Yes, one blog on the record snow. One blog on slow start to spring. 32 blogs since the meterological start of spring.

2 for 32, not bad!

Everyone has their biases and opinions, there's no doubt about that and not necessarily anything wrong with it either. I'm just exposing what I believe to be his bias. Call me crazy.
Might be some all-time rainfall records for eastern FL for April.

Do the models still show the "semi" or shallow warm core system anymore.My local mets mentioned a low but it should stay far off the coast not to affect us.
Good grief.
Quoting Gearsts:
But thats for the central parts of the island and last time the said that it was too cloudy and no thunderstorm develop.


If the wind direction changes from the SE then you will get it but it appears right now it will be from the east.
Oh My! FBI busted a plan of Alqueda to attack Quebec's transit system. WOW!!!!

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Oh My! FBI busted a plan of Alqueda to attack Quebec's transit system. WOW!!!!
FBI and Canadian Police forces... both coordinated in the arrest
Notice the very low sheer where that low is getting better organized.........Might see a statement on this one later today (although it is in the middle of nowhere at the moment):

Link

Nice vorticity working it's way down to the surface as well:

Link
As I said..Watch the trends..

06z GFS



12z GFS.





Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Notice the very low sheer where that low is getting better organized.........Might see a statement on this one later today (although it is in the middle of nowhere at the moment):

Link

Nice vorticity working it's way down to the surface as well:

Link

It's forecast to remain frontal.
Quoting ncstorm:
As I said..Watch the trends..

06z GFS



12z GFS.





Wahhh?.Seems it'll be extra tropical in nature?.

Nice new Avatar TWA13.
Rain now coming for me!!!!!:)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


If the wind direction changes from the SE then you will get it but it appears right now it will be from the east.
Can't wait for my first big thunderstorm to move over :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's forecast to remain frontal.


I trust your comments and observations; but it looks to me like it is losing those characteristics and trying to develop.
WPC discussion

A wavy frontal system off the East Coast is expected to produce showers
over Florida Monday, then brush the Outer Banks through Monday night. By
Tuesday, the lead low pressure wave associated with this system should
begin to produce rain over coastal New England.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Wahhh?.Seems it'll be extra tropical in nature?.

Nice new Avatar TWA13.


then I guess you already know then..right?..
this Embarass, MN thing is bugging me..
Duluth, MN NWS
this was found by a link from an MPR radio station blog, but doing a cold search yields results like Nea posted.. wonder if the -14F reading has been negated..
Quoting ncstorm:


then I guess you already know then..right?..
No I'm mentally challenged.lol.This will stay far enough off the coast to not give me problems.Don't need any more nor'easters for the year.
Quoting muddertracker:


fully? (sorry, couldn't resist.)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I trust your comments and observations; but it looks to me like it is losing those characteristics and trying to develop.

The forecast 850mb vorticity says it all: very elongated/frontal in nature.



It does seem to acquire at least a marginal warm core, however, as noted by the isotherms.

Quoting ARiot:
Frankly I'm more concerned about coal and beef/livestock contributions to AGW than I am gasoline/transportation fuel.

Transportation for luxury can be easily reduced.

Transport of goods will work itself out to preserve profits or things will go back to local.

What I don't see any easy answers for is replacing coal or animal protien sources.

SUVs (or whatever) are easy targets. Hard targets are energy for heating and cooling and protien.

That's my $.02 for Earth Day.



Just a bit more on the protein part.

It's fairly likely that our changing weather is going to cause more crop losses and drive up the cost of food.

Increased shipping costs will also make importing beef more expensive.

As food price increase people will eat less meat. That's going to help a little.
180. yoboi
Quoting BobChecks:


More recent research has extended the "handle" of the hockey stick back a few thousand years.

Link

The hockey stick blade is starting to look more like a cliff against which we are smashing ourselves.




temps look to be running on the low side of the projection.......can you link a clearer graph than that was provided in that link?
Orlando
Quoting Minnemike:
this Embarass, MN thing is bugging me..
Duluth, MN NWS
this was found by a link from an MPR radio station blog, but doing a cold search yields results like Nea posted.. wonder if the -14F reading has been negated..


Don't believe that Embarass is an Official NWS station and as such won't be official but it did happen and was reported....
183. DDR
Good afternoon
Its finally raining again in parts of the interior and western Trinidad
Quoting DDR:
Good afternoon
Its finally raining again in parts of the interior and western Trinidad
Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: April 26, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 1451



Hi fellow Caribbean friend. The ITCZ will soon begin to climb in latitude and that will kick your normal rainy season.
185. DDR
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi fellow Caribbean friend. The ITCZ will soon begin to climb in latitude and that will kick your normal rainy season.


Hello Tropics good to see you,its been so hot down here,about 2 to 3C above normal,i can hardly wait for it set in.
186. ARiot
Quoting BobChecks:


Replacing coal is easy. We're already doing it.


I don't disagree that it is "easy" while a bit more expensive for developed nations to transition off coal.

I do agree that we waste a significant portion of coal energy and could conserve easily.

The problem is that population dense developing countries can not and will not stop developing coal until it's cost prohibative.

They are also developing a cultural affinity for a more protien dense diet.

I don't blame them. We in the developed world did the same, unchecked, in order to "develop."

Dirty, cheap, subsidised energy and cheap subsidied high protien diets are two pillars of modern life. I do not think the transition away will be easy. It will happen due to climate or resource depletion, but not without wailing and gnashing of teeth.

But yes, to your point, we can lead by doing everything you mentioned, even if it's a little uncofortable.
Ugh.
Good afternoon everyone...big work day

Just getting up to date with news here,
we have Zeus... the entire list has been used. 26 winter storms (is this above average or what?, no winter weather history to actually tell by TWC)



As it is a happy Earth Day for everyone, it is also a happy 2nd anniversary day for me today April 22 (not April 23).
Only 40 more days to June 1....
49 BaltimoreBrian: Wouldn't a storm named Achilles tendon to be a pain so late in the season?

Punician, heel thyself. "...Achilles tendon being a pain..."
Quoting yoboi:



temps look to be running on the low side of the projection.......can you link a clearer graph than that was provided in that link?


I don't understand your question.

Are you talking about recent year surface temperatures before they are adjusted for solar, volcanic and ENSO inputs? If so, yes, one would think that temps were running on the low side.

If you take out the solar, ENSO, volcanic inputs as Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) did then you see that we're continuing to cook ourselves very effectively.

Quoting JNCali:
Only 40 more days to June 1....


Make it 39 and counting
here's a hockey stick for ya the trend is clear and it don't look to be cooling to me

194. yoboi
Quoting BobChecks:


I don't understand your question.

Are you talking about recent year surface temperatures before they are adjusted for solar, volcanic and ENSO inputs? If so, yes, one would think that temps were running on the low side.

If you take out the solar, ENSO, volcanic inputs as Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) did then you see that we're continuing to cook ourselves very effectively.



.1 since the late 90's????
Quoting ARiot:


The problem is that population dense developing countries can not and will not stop developing coal until it's cost prohibative.


Coal is already cost prohibitive. The lowest price I've seen for electricity from a newly built coal plant is $0.12/kWh and I've seen estimates as high as $0.19/kWh.

There is already a problem getting commercial banks to fund new coal plants. A couple of years back one of the executives at Deutsche Bank said that "Coal is a dead man walking". Since then several other large banks, including Citi have come to the same conclusion, coal is a risky investment.
Quoting MississippiWx:
"Mother Nature's face is not aging slowly or gracefully, the wrinkles and scars caused by accumulating greenhouse gases are already visible. The good news? Extreme weather is also chiseling fissures and gaping holes in the climate deniers' bunker, leaving a crumbling foundation for their arguments." -Dr. Jennifer Francis

Yeah, Dr. Francis. It sure is great news that "extreme weather" (disasters) are helping to put a dent in the other side's point of view.

Might want to re-word that statement next time.
From a practical standpoint, it is good news. Unfortunate though it may be, sometimes it does take extremities to open people's minds.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yes, one blog on the record snow. One blog on slow start to spring. 32 blogs since the meterological start of spring.

2 for 32, not bad!

Everyone has their biases and opinions, there's no doubt about that and not necessarily anything wrong with it either. I'm just exposing what I believe to be his bias. Call me crazy.
I would never call you "crazy", but I would say your math is a bit off. ;-)

Since January 1, Dr. Masters has published 70 blog entries counting today's. 11 of those have dealt primarily or secondarily with climate change/global warming. Meanwhile, 21 dealt primarily with extreme snowfall or extreme cold; 15 were mostly about severe weather (tornadoes and the like), and a full 10 were about tropical weather, though it's obviously been the North Atlantic's off-season. So whenever someone says that Dr. Masters only ever talks about climate change, or that he's showing some "bias" by "constantly" writing about global warming, I can only chuckle and point out that his publication record says otherwise.

(I realize some consider ever mention of warm weather--such as Australia's superheated January temps--as talk of global warming, but that's just silly. And most of his blog entries covering NOAA' monthly "State of the Climate" reports are compilations of facts, and not, as some might think, commentaries on climate change, so it would be unfair to include them as well.)
Quoting JNCali:
Only 40 more days to June 1....


For me "hurricane season" begins on May 15th, as the EPAC hurricane season begins then and, as we saw last year, storms will ignore the June 1st date.

For me the "season" begins in 22 days.
Quoting yoboi:


.1 since the late 90's????


0.0 to 0.3 > 0.1

Even if you hand-picked the highest point for the late '90s...

0.1 to 0.3 > 0.1

Quoting Neapolitan:


(I realize some consider ever mention of warm weather--such as Australia's superheated January temps--as talk of global warming, but that's just silly. And most of his blog entries covering NOAA' monthly "State of the Climate" reports are compilations of facts, and not, as some might think, commentaries on climate change, so it would be unfair to include them as well.)



This blog should silence the people who complain about that sort of thing.
@191 Yoboi is well known for his amazing, creative posts using a monotone palette of questioning. He shows remarkable resilience in not expanding the range of hues in the picture he portrays through the deft brush strokes his comments embody.
This week's East Coast low pressure system could really end up being quite a storm for SE Mass. if it stays close enough to the coast. The NAM is showing over 3" QPF for parts of Cape Cod with a really sharp cutoff to the west:

204. yoboi
Quoting bappit:
@191 Yoboi is well known for his amazing, creative posts using a monotone palette of questioning. He shows remarkable resilience in not expanding the range of hues in the picture he portrays through the deft brush strokes his comments embody.


Should I say thanks??????
Quoting Neapolitan:
I would never call you "crazy", but I would say your math is a bit off. ;-)

Since January 1, Dr. Masters has published 70 blog entries counting today's. 11 of those have dealt primarily or secondarily with climate change/global warming. Meanwhile, 21 dealt primarily with extreme snowfall or extreme cold; 15 were mostly about severe weather (tornadoes and the like), and a full 10 were about tropical weather, though it's obviously been the North Atlantic's off-season. So whenever someone says that Dr. Masters only ever talks about climate change, or that he's showing some "bias" by "constantly" writing about global warming, I can only chuckle and point out that his publication record says otherwise.

(I realize some consider ever mention of warm weather--such as Australia's superheated January temps--as talk of global warming, but that's just silly. And most of his blog entries covering NOAA' monthly "State of the Climate" reports are compilations of facts, and not, as some might think, commentaries on climate change, so it would be unfair to include them as well.)



Why is it you always attack people when they post information on how cold it's been? Who cares no need for the bickering that you do on here all the time about your so called super heated temperatures. Geesh give it a rest and relax as your heat will come soon enough and then you can start posting your record breaking temperature maps again.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:



Why is it you always attack people when they post information on how cold it's been? Who cares no need for the bickering that you do on here all the time about your so called super heated temperatures. Geesh give it a rest and relax as your heat will come soon enough and then you can start post your record breaking high maps again.

Put him on ignore if you dislike him so much. I doubt he will care.
When you see the reflect of the sun in the water, means that the ocean temperature will begin to warm in our hemisphere.
Quoting stormchaser19:
When you see the reflect of the sun in the water, means that the ocean temperature will begin to warm in our hemisphere.
211. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
I would never call you "crazy", but I would say your math is a bit off. ;-)

Since January 1, Dr. Masters has published 70 blog entries counting today's. 11 of those have dealt primarily or secondarily with climate change/global warming. Meanwhile, 21 dealt primarily with extreme snowfall or extreme cold; 15 were mostly about severe weather (tornadoes and the like), and a full 10 were about tropical weather, though it's obviously been the North Atlantic's off-season. So whenever someone says that Dr. Masters only ever talks about climate change, or that he's showing some "bias" by "constantly" writing about global warming, I can only chuckle and point out that his publication record says otherwise.

(I realize some consider ever mention of warm weather--such as Australia's superheated January temps--as talk of global warming, but that's just silly. And most of his blog entries covering NOAA' monthly "State of the Climate" reports are compilations of facts, and not, as some might think, commentaries on climate change, so it would be unfair to include them as well.)




What did the remaining 13 deal with?????
Getting really dark, and a bit windy, at the office - I'm basically at the corner of I595 and I75.

I see lots of yellows and reds on the radar - I guess I might stick around work for a bit until this blows over.
Newest snowfall forecast map for tonight just out. I'm in the 12"+ color.



Quoting 47n91w:
Newest snowfall forecast map for tonight just out. I'm in the 12"+ color.





Is a foot + rare so late in April or not so unusual?
The Weather Channel's forecast for the summer (just temperature) emphasizes the presence of a blocking high over southeastern Canada. That's a bad place for a high to be during this period because it helps steer tropical cyclones into the United States.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel's forecast for the summer (just temperature) emphasizes the presence of a blocking high over southeastern Canada. That's a bad place for a high to be during this period because it helps steer tropical cyclones into the United States.


Gulf storms landlocked, lion in a cage.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Is a foot + rare so late in April or not so unusual?


The average for April is 4" of snowfall in the area of highest predicted snowfall tonight. And I've already had 33" of snow this month so far, with a few areas in the higher terrain measuring more than that.

So another foot is extremely unusual, not because it's snowing in April, but because April's snowfall might equal what we normally expect throughout the winter.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel's forecast for the summer (just temperature) emphasizes the presence of a blocking high over southeastern Canada. That's a bad place for a high to be during this period because it helps steer tropical cyclones into the United States.


It's been fairly obvious for awhile that the upper air pattern over the United States is different this year than the last several. We will see what comes of it. So far so good if you're into that sort of thing, though.
Quoting Minnemike:
this Embarass, MN thing is bugging me..
Duluth, MN NWS
this was found by a link from an MPR radio station blog, but doing a cold search yields results like Nea posted.. wonder if the -14F reading has been negated..


It came from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group. I don't know if it is official.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:



Why is it you always attack people when they post information on how cold it's been? Who cares no need for the bickering that you do on here all the time about your so called super heated temperatures. Geesh give it a rest and relax as your heat will come soon enough and then you can start posting your record breaking temperature maps again.


I just never understood really why he came up with such statistics about that..
Their is one thing to educate someone on something then it's another to humiliate them and get a kick out of it like what has been shown here today.


This is a contour plot of total totals index with a contour interval of 2. The TT field shows instability in the atmosphere based on the lapse rate from 850 to 500 mb plus dewpoint at 850 mb. Where TTs are greater than 45, thunderstorms are possible. The higher the number, the more unstable the atmosphere is and as a result, the bold the thunderstorms could become. Values of 52 or higher indicate areas where severe thunderstorms are possible. Values <40 indicate areas of stable weather where skies are generally clear.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some on here never talk about the numbers on all the record highs, but when they get out numbered by record lows they finally speak out on this blog. Funny, ain't it? ;-)

For the year-to-date, record lows (and low maximums) in the US crept above record highs (and high minimums) on Friday. That's the first time that situation has existed since February 12, 2011. Of course, since January 1, 2011, record highs of all types have outnumbered record lows of all types across the US by roughly 135,000 to 52,000, or nearly 2.6 to 1. (In fact, record highs in either 2011 alone or 2012 alone still outnumber record lows over the past 27 and a half months combined.)

Quoting StormTrackerScott:



Why is it you always attack people when they post information on how cold it's been? Who cares no need for the bickering that you do on here all the time about your so called super heated temperatures. Geesh give it a rest and relax as your heat will come soon enough and then you can start posting your record breaking temperature maps again.


oh how I look forward to summer and the never endless posts of the sun and CPC maps..joy joy!
Quoting ncstorm:


oh how I look forward to summer and the never endless posts of the sun and CPC maps..joy joy!
You forgot the words Debunked...Denier and has this one been used?.Deniest.Lol.Credited scientist..ect ect..
Quoting washingtonian115:
You forgot the words Debunked...Denier and has this one been used?.Deniest.Lol.Credited scientist..ect ect..


Could you please explain to me why some on this site revel in the science of weather, yet dismiss the science of climate?
From facebook...Waterspout, Adriatic Sea

"Nature's face is not aging slowly or gracefully, the wrinkles and scars caused by accumulating greenhouse gases are already visible."

At first I thought the blog was about Grothar.
Quoting washingtonian115:
You forgot the words Debunked...Denier and has this one been used?.Deniest.Lol.Credited scientist..ect ect..


or the Artic Ice Graphs, Polar bears sitting on one piece of ice, penguins walking in sand, Solar flare updates, ice age posts, Europe's hottest summer on record, endless drought maps, Chucktown drive by posts, pictures of the Mississippi river with one boat stuck in mud, CO2 levels, the great dust bowl and last but my favorite of the Ostrich picture of the head in the sand

How I so look forward to tropical weather discussion
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From facebook...Waterspout, Adriatic Sea



I have a feeling that is some how photoshopped
Quoting BobChecks:


Could you please explain to me why some on this site revel in the science of weather, yet dismiss the science of climate?
Oh no I'm not excluding that climate change exist the proof is all there.I think that people they do see the climate change it's just that knowing how extreme some people get on this site they stay away from the subject.
Quoting ncstorm:


or the Artic Ice Graphs, Polar bears sitting on one piece of ice, penguins walking in sand, Solar flare updates, ice age posts, Europe's hottest summer on record, endless drought maps, Chucktown drive by posts, pictures of the Mississippi river with one boat stuck in mud, CO2 levels, the great dust bowl and last but my favorite of the Ostrich picture of the head in the sand
Lol.
Quoting BobChecks:


Could you please explain to me why some on this site revel in the science of weather, yet dismiss the science of climate?


Because they still don't get it. I am also blown away by this fact.
What bothers me is that the colder-than-normal air coming down from the Arctic into NorthAmerica has to have been displaced/replaced by warmer-than-normal air going into the Arctic.*
And that warmer-than-normal air has to have been warming the sea-ice more than normal since midMarch, has to be melting more sea-ice than normal now.

* Ain't like the Arctic can form anything close to a deep partial-vacuum above itself
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I have a feeling that is some how photoshopped


I thought so too ... maybe not?

still not sure.
Link
238. SLU
In spite of the strongly positive NAO, the trade winds are still well below average across the MDR because of the large, deep layer low near 31N, 34W.





Here you can see anomalous westerlies in the tropics to the south of the low indicating weaker-than-normal easterly trade winds with stronger-than-normal trades near the Azores to the north of the low and stretching across the entire sub-tropical Atlantic.



This pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least another 5 - 7 days as the deep layer low persists in its current vicinity. The net effect of which will be a continuous warming of the SST in the deep tropics with a continuous cooling of the SST in the sub-tropics. This will probably strengthen the Atlantic Tripole even further in the coming days. By the time the deep layer low vanishes, the NAO should be heading back to negative territory leading to further warming of the MDR.



Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I have a feeling that is some how photoshopped


here is a series of ten photos of the same waterspout:

http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/news-tornado -adriatic?image=0
Quoting docrod:


I thought so too ... maybe not?

still not sure.
Link


what makes me doubt...

The tornado appearance, especially at the bottom as it contacts the water
The lightning, especially where it comes from the odd-color-looking-weird cloud

the picture could be legit though...
Quoting aspectre:
What bothers me is that the colder-than-normal air coming down from the Arctic into NorthAmerica has to have been displaced/replaced by warmer-than-normal air going into the Arctic.* And that warmer-than-normal air has to have been, has to be warming the sea-ice more than normal since midMarch.

* Ain't like the Arctic can form anything close to a deep partial-vacuum above itself


When the artic was ice free before, how come half of the united states was not under water then but now they say half will be under this time? Are we sinking this time around?
Quoting ncstorm:


or the Artic Ice Graphs, Polar bears sitting on one piece of ice, penguins walking in sand, Solar flare updates, ice age posts, Europe's hottest summer on record, endless drought maps, Chucktown drive by posts, pictures of the Mississippi river with one boat stuck in mud, CO2 levels, the great dust bowl and last but my favorite of the Ostrich picture of the head in the sand

How I so look forward to tropical weather discussion


how about this new invention the ostrich pillow




(note:my post is meant to be humorous or satirical)
Quoting allahgore:


When the artic was ice free before, how come half of the united states was not under water then but now they say half will be under this time? Are we sinking this time around?

LOL When the ice cubes in your glass melt, does the water overflow the glass?
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued an

* Urban Flood Advisory for...
northeastern Broward County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the cities of... Pompano Beach... Deerfield Beach...
southeastern Palm Beach County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the cities of... Delray Beach... Boca Raton...

* until 830 PM EDT

* at 623 PM EDT reports of flooded roadways have been received out
of Boca Raton. National Weather Service Doppler radar has
indicated 1 to 2 inches of rainfall has occurred over the last
hour.

Heavy rainfall will cause ponding of water in urban areas, highways,
streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage areas and low
lying spots. Runoff will also cause elevated waters levels in canals
and ditches.
Quoting SLU:
In spite of the strongly positive NAO, the trade winds are still well below average across the MDR because of the large, deep layer low near 31N, 34W.





Here you can see anomalous westerlies in the tropics to the south of the low indicating weaker-than-normal easterly trade winds with stronger-than-normal trades near the Azores to the north of the low and stretching across the entire sub-tropical Atlantic.



This pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least another 5 - 7 days as the deep layer low persists in its current vicinity. The net effect of which will be a continuous warming of the SST in the deep tropics with a continuous cooling of the SST in the sub-tropics. This will probably strengthen the Atlantic Tripole even further in the coming days. By the time the deep layer low vanishes, the NAO should be heading back to negative territory leading to further warming of the MDR.




I mean, that's partially true, but it doesn't really tell the whole story. Trade winds across the tropical Atlantic are below-average relative to normal because the strong area of high pressure and its associated dipole (separation of positive/negative values, in this case either the pressure dipole or the trade wind dipole) -- which is typically farther south, inducing strong easterlies across the MDR -- is displaced near the Azores. The area of low pressure just shows the displacement, it's not what's causing the below-average trades.
Quoting bappit:

LOL When the ice cubes in your glass melt, does the water overflow the glass?


No, so are we over-hyping the outcome?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


how about this new invention the ostrich pillow




(note:my post is meant to be humorous or satirical)


LOL..that was funny and you now have about 5 people with 60 handles saving those down to their C drive to use later..

thanks a lot :)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


what makes me doubt...

The tornado appearance, especially at the bottom as it contacts the water
The lightning, especially where it comes from the odd-color-looking-weird cloud

the picture could be legit though...


Of course a legit photo could be photo-shopped to increase the drama ... could be a hybrid?
246 I've seen it all now on this site.
241 allahgore: When the Artic was ice free before, how come half of the united states was not under water then, but now they say half will be under this time?

Other than MORONs who make movies like Day After Tomorrow, who claims that half the US is going to be underwater? Admittedly, I know of some ill-educated preachers who claim that GlobalWarming can't happen -- falsely claiming that scientists are making such "GlobalWarming = TheFlood" predictions -- because God promised that there would be no more Noachian Floods.
Anyone with the slightest interest in religion and/or science would point out that there's quite a bit of difference between a 2to3hundred feet maximum*increase in sea-level and flooded mountain tops.

* As in, what would happen if ALL of the ice on Earth melted while (heat expansion of) the ocean stayed below scalding temperature; ie hot enough to literally poach an egg or a fish.
Quoting allahgore:


No, so are we over-hyping the outcome?
no u see the ice in the arctic will in fact not rise the sea level however the ice that sits upon greenland or other mountain,hilly,valley regions will o and
Antarctic or permafrost areas will add to sea level as well
Quoting SLU:
In spite of the strongly positive NAO, the trade winds are still well below average across the MDR because of the large, deep layer low near 31N, 34W.





Here you can see anomalous westerlies in the tropics to the south of the low indicating weaker-than-normal easterly trade winds with stronger-than-normal trades near the Azores to the north of the low and stretching across the entire sub-tropical Atlantic.



This pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least another 5 - 7 days as the deep layer low persists in its current vicinity. The net effect of which will be a continuous warming of the SST in the deep tropics with a continuous cooling of the SST in the sub-tropics. This will probably strengthen the Atlantic Tripole even further in the coming days. By the time the deep layer low vanishes, the NAO should be heading back to negative territory leading to further warming of the MDR.





Nice post SLU!
Quoting SLU:
In spite of the strongly positive NAO, the trade winds are still well below average across the MDR because of the large, deep layer low near 31N, 34W.





Here you can see anomalous westerlies in the tropics to the south of the low indicating weaker-than-normal easterly trade winds with stronger-than-normal trades near the Azores to the north of the low and stretching across the entire sub-tropical Atlantic.



This pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least another 5 - 7 days as the deep layer low persists in its current vicinity. The net effect of which will be a continuous warming of the SST in the deep tropics with a continuous cooling of the SST in the sub-tropics. This will probably strengthen the Atlantic Tripole even further in the coming days. By the time the deep layer low vanishes, the NAO should be heading back to negative territory leading to further warming of the MDR.





The CFs is saying the same as well
Levi, when you get on, I just noticed your CGI product stopped updating on April 17.
257. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I mean, that's partially true, but it doesn't really tell the whole story. Trade winds across the tropical Atlantic are below-average relative to normal because the strong area of high pressure and its associated dipole (separation of positive/negative values, in this case either the pressure dipole or the trade wind dipole) -- which is typically farther south, inducing strong easterlies across the MDR -- is displaced near the Azores. The area of low pressure just shows the displacement, it's not what's causing the below-average trades.


Would you agree that if the large low was absent that the pressure gradient across the MDR would have been tighter leading to stronger trades relative to normal?
Quoting SLU:


Would you agree that if the large low was absent that the pressure gradient across the MDR would have been tighter leading to stronger trades relative to normal?

Maybe. Sometimes the high is displaced regardless.
The Adriatic waterspout image from comment #230 is legit; it's a screen grab from this six-year-old video (lightning at about 0:30):



260. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe. Sometimes the high is displaced regardless.


True. My thinking is the low is playing a major part in the current pattern by further tightening the pressure gradient near the Azores while significantly weakening it in the tropics.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh no I'm not excluding that climate change exist the proof is all there.I think that people they do see the climate change it's just that knowing how extreme some people get on this site they stay away from the subject. Lol.


I wasn't asking about you specifically, although based on what I've seen you post I would assume you to be in the denier camp.

Let me ask a different way?

Do you have any idea why some (not including you) follow the science of weather yet reject the science of climate?

I'm not asking about whether you or others might object to a particular poster's "personality". I'm asking about why some seem to treat science as a Chinese menu, select out the data they like and dump what makes them pucker.

Quoting allahgore:


No, so are we over-hyping the outcome?


No, you asked about Arctic sea ice. That ice is already in the ocean and when it melts it will do little to change sea levels.

What's likely to bite us in the rear end is the land ice we're melting. We're seeing significant melting of equatorial glaciers. Greenland melted a lot last year. Antarctica land ice is starting to show signs of melting.

It's going to take a long time to melt all that ice if we decide to. When we do, well kiss our coastal areas goodbye.

But even before then as sea levels rise we'll see storm surges give us major pains and we'll see more and more of our potable water lost to saltwater infusion.
Quoting SLU:


True. My thinking is the low is playing a major part in the current pattern by further tightening the pressure gradient near the Azores while significantly weakening it in the tropics.



It looks like they forecast it to start moving NE pretty quicly. Notice the ITCZ a little more north than it was in the past few weeks.
what!!!
Hurricane Irene Might Have Triggered Virginia Earthquake Aftershocks

Excerpt:

Hurricane Irene, a powerful storm that ran north along the US East Coast four days after a magnitude-5.8 earthquake rattled Virginia in 2011, may have triggered some of that earthquake’s aftershocks, scientists reported today at the annual meeting of the Seismological Society of America in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Quoting SLU:


True. My thinking is the low is playing a major part in the current pattern by further tightening the pressure gradient near the Azores while significantly weakening it in the tropics.



Centex has rain chances 5 days in a row starting tomorrow.. that never happens. Not that it WILL happen, either, it's just weird to see it in a forecast.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I would never call you "crazy", but I would say your math is a bit off. ;-)

Since January 1, Dr. Masters has published 70 blog entries counting today's. 11 of those have dealt primarily or secondarily with climate change/global warming. Meanwhile, 21 dealt primarily with extreme snowfall or extreme cold; 15 were mostly about severe weather (tornadoes and the like), and a full 10 were about tropical weather, though it's obviously been the North Atlantic's off-season. So whenever someone says that Dr. Masters only ever talks about climate change, or that he's showing some "bias" by "constantly" writing about global warming, I can only chuckle and point out that his publication record says otherwise.

(I realize some consider ever mention of warm weather--such as Australia's superheated January temps--as talk of global warming, but that's just silly. And most of his blog entries covering NOAA' monthly "State of the Climate" reports are compilations of facts, and not, as some might think, commentaries on climate change, so it would be unfair to include them as well.)
I think it's not the number of blogs but the content of the blogs themselves. Often (though certainly not always) it seems that when Jeff has something to say about the warmth he will tie it in to climate change/global warming. Recent example. When he writes about the cold the blogs run shorter because it's just cold; there's generally less additional commentary on how it relates to climate. Example. This is probably why I tend to remember the blogs where he talks about warming more than the ones where he talks about the cold.

I am getting picky at this point, though. I'll admit he posts more on the subject than I thought.


Getting ready to swarm ashore again. 80.6 here today. Airport was 81, normal is 52/77. Currently 79.6 Airport 80/26% humidity...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Levi, when you get on, I just noticed your CGI product stopped updating on April 17.


Yeah. I had to temporarily sacrifice it in order to enable the ensemble spread maps (don't ask me why lol, too complicated). I have to come up with a system that allows me to update both simultaneously. For now, the CGI isn't really needed, so I opted to disable that one for the time being. It will come back.
that marine layer will flood in as soon as the sun's angle lowers
Hi Levi. Are you going to include the vertical instability product to your continuing growing tools?
There seems to be a lot of preaching to the choir by Dr. Masters on this blog....I wonder why?

Back in the day, it was vogue to present both sides of an argument and then let the informed reader decide. I realize this is Dr. Master's blog...but, you will never see anything counter to the GW pack mentality.

I fully trust that the Russians will leak even more e-mails between these "scientists" proving this hoax the next time the polls start to show the low information person starting to believe this stuff.

This kind of non-sense cost how many lives in Britain this past winter?

Electric cars, windmills and solar will never replace good old coal and natural gas....God Bless Fracking!!

Quoting bjrabbit:
There seems to be a lot of preaching to the choir by Dr. Masters on this blog....I wonder why?

Back in the day, it was vogue to present both sides of an argument and then let the informed reader decide. I realize this is Dr. Master's blog...but, you will never see anything counter to the GW pack mentality.

I fully trust that the Russians will leak even more e-mails between these "scientists" proving this hoax the next time the polls start to show the low information person starting to believe this stuff.

This kind of non-sense cost how many lives in Britain this past winter?

Electric cars, windmills and solar will never replace good old coal and natural gas....God Bless Fracking!!



There is no argument. The science has been settled for quite some time. Over 30,000 peer reviewed papers. The only "argument" is from people who willfully choose to deny the science. Obviously Dr. Masters needs more posts on the issue since there are still people who reject observable, testable science.
275. txjac
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no u see the ice in the arctic will in fact not rise the sea level however the ice that sits upon greenland or other mountain,hilly,valley regions will o and
Antarctic or permafrost areas will add to sea level as well


Would be nice to catch that fresh ice melt in some kind of resevour
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Levi. Are you going to include the vertical instability product to your continuing growing tools?


Thanks for spoiling the surprise lol.



Tropicsweatherpr that gos too show that no one nos how too keep ther mouth shut
Quoting Levi32:


Thanks for spoiling the surprise lol.
Levi have you ever experience a hurricane before?
Quoting Gearsts:
Levi have you ever experience a hurricane before?


Nope, but I want to really bad. Maybe if I get accepted to FSU I will get to.
Quoting bjrabbit:
There seems to be a lot of preaching to the choir by Dr. Masters on this blog....I wonder why?

Back in the day, it was vogue to present both sides of an argument and then let the informed reader decide. I realize this is Dr. Master's blog...but, you will never see anything counter to the GW pack mentality.




That's an interesting take.

You think Jeff should post the anti-science as well as the science?

How would he go about doing that?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody believe it?

What does the data say about this part?

"An active sun warms the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere through ozone absorption of additional ultraviolet (UV) radiation."

If it does warm the upper troposphere, then there would seem to be a mechanism, and it would be believable. Whether it happens in fact is another question.

Edit: Other factors might exert a greater influence, too.
Quoting BobChecks:


I don't understand your question.

Are you talking about recent year surface temperatures before they are adjusted for solar, volcanic and ENSO inputs? If so, yes, one would think that temps were running on the low side.

If you take out the solar, ENSO, volcanic inputs as Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) did then you see that we're continuing to cook ourselves very effectively.

New information has recently come to light about the study from Foster and Rahmstorf questioning the conclusions. The graph you posted is questionable at best and much more than likely wrong. Skeptical Science has even acknowledged as much.
Quoting BobChecks:


That's an interesting take.

You think Jeff should post the anti-science as well as the science?

How would he go about doing that?
Scientists: 1 + 1 = 2

Denialists: 1 + 1 = 3

What some would have Dr. Masters write: 1 + 1 = 2.5
286. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It looks like they forecast it to start moving NE pretty quicly. Notice the ITCZ a little more north than it was in the past few weeks.


It seems the ITCZ could drift even further north in the coming days and end the extreme dry spell in northern South America too.
Just to mention where I stand. I believe that humans are most likely affecting the climate to some degree, I just personally believe that at this point it is very hard to know to what degree of impact there is. I think that it could have barely any effect on the climate, or it could be as close to as what blogs like Dr. Master's are saying.

And to close out, I would like to say that whether we are barely having any impact on this climate or if we are destroying it alarmingly as some say, we should always try to keep it as pristine as possible given the circumstances, and be good stewards of this world we live, benefit, and breathe the very air from.
Quoting Levi32:


Nope, but I want to really bad. Maybe if I get accepted to FSU I will get to.


be careful of what you wish for !!!
Quoting nymore:
New information has recently come to light about the study from Foster and Rahmstorf questioning the conclusions. The graph you posted is questionable at best and much more than likely wrong. Skeptical Science has even acknowledged as much.


I'm not aware of that. Can you furnish a link?
Quoting SLU:


It seems the ITCZ could drift even further north in the coming days and end the extreme dry spell in northern South America too.


Both Week 1 and Week 2 are forecasted to see an anomalous intrusion of ITCZ moisture into at least the southern islands.



Quoting yoboi:




What did the remaining 13 deal with?????



Good luck. The math very seldom adds up. Math in the spin cycle NEVER adds up!
292. DDR
Levi whats your take on the copious amounts of moisture over the eastern caribbean islands,seems like a pattern every April for the last 2 or 3 years?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Scientists: 1 + 1 = 2

Denialists: 1 + 1 = 3

What some would have Dr. Masters write: 1 + 1 = 2.5


Can we account for 70? or do I need to share some Stanford math with you?
I watch this when I get bored.

Nature is scary.

Quoting BobChecks:


I'm not aware of that. Can you furnish a link?
Sure

Skeptical Science Link

Skeptical Science has another one on another article to but it says the same thing so will not link here, if you want though you can still find it at their site.

The new info is here Link

You can click on top of the page to go to his homepage and read parts 2 and 3
Levi have you ever experience a hurricane before?


Nope, but I want to really bad. Maybe if I get accepted to FSU I will get to.



I moved to the FL panhandle in 2000 and lived there till 2004 right before the hurricanes. While living in Illinois for 3 years, I became very interested in hurricanes. Moved back to the panhandle in 07, and of course, nothing yet.

I really want to experience one for the meteorological aspect of it though!
Quoting DDR:
Levi whats your take on the copious amounts of moisture over the eastern caribbean islands,seems like a pattern every April for the last 2 or 3 years?


That's probably because the last 3 years have all been either spring La Ninas or rapidly falling El Ninos. That atmospheric state combined with a warm AMO in the Atlantic tends to force the ITCZ closer to the Caribbean.
Quoting BobChecks:


I'm not aware of that. Can you furnish a link?
This was discussed at length in Dr. Rood's blog forum just a few days ago, with the determination not that Foster and Rahmstorf were wrong, but that some denialist types were having trouble understanding the work and wording of Troy Masters. It appears as though that's till the case...
299. SLU
Quoting Levi32:


Both Week 1 and Week 2 are forecasted to see an anomalous intrusion of ITCZ moisture into at least the southern islands.





Very much in line with some of the seasonal forecasts for April/May from the computer models. Things are starting to fall into place nicely....
What's the difference if someone interprets the Dr's blogs to say it's 32/70 or 12/70? Why even debate the matter? It's obvious that the Dr. is 70/70 in his desire to spread his thoughts.....and it seems to me that he's got every right to try his best to expound his views so others can understand as he sees things...it is his blog. I think he does a good job with the only caveat being that I missed his more detailed analysis of tropical cyclones last season as opposed to previous seasons...and I would like to see if possible more on this front.
It is hard to not understand this

Note that by pause in global warming I am specifically referring to a near-halt in the underlying low-frequency signal of surface temperatures (not ocean heat content), a signal not influenced by the typical exogenous factors of ENSO, volcanoes, or solar activity. This has been recently attempted in Foster and Rahmstorf (2011), from which they conclude that from the removal of these three factors via multiple regression they have isolat[ed] the global warming signal and that there is no indication of any slowdown or acceleration of global warming, beyond the variability induced by these known natural factors. Rahmstorf et al. (2012) proceeds to compare this adjusted temperature evolution to model projections, which I think is particularly dangerous if what you get after this multiple regression approach is not the underlying signal.

I see some are still in denial. I find it funny when alarmist turn into denialists
Quoting SLU:


Very much in line with some of the seasonal forecasts for April/May from the computer models. Things are starting to fall into place nicely....


And I would say ominous pattern shaping up for us.
nice red color off the east coast!!
Quoting nymore:
Sure

Skeptical Science Link

Skeptical Science has another one on another article to but it says the same thing so will not link here, if you want though you can still find it at their site.

The new info is here Link

You can click on top of the page to go to his homepage and read parts 2 and 3


Thanks, but I think you misread the Masters paper.

Here are the take-aways for me...

"First, I will note that the influence of ENSO is diagnosed extremely well."

"Second, we see that the solar influence is largely over-estimated."

"However, the biggest error here comes from an underestimate of the volcanic influence. Whereas the regression “removal” essentially sees the influence of the exogenous factor end after the forcing ends (plus whatever lag is diagnosed), the energy balance model used here shows a continuing influence through the last decade as part of the recovery."

None of that refutes Forster and Rahmstorf paper, it's more of a "fine tuning" unless further work shows that they made a major mistake with the volcanic part.

Going to be interesting to see how this works out.
305. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And I would say ominous pattern shaping up for us.


I'd agree and say that persons in the Caribbean and by extension the US mainland will need to listen closely to their local weather reports his hurricane season.
Quoting BobChecks:


Thanks, but I think you misread the Masters paper.

Here are the take-aways for me...

"First, I will note that the influence of ENSO is diagnosed extremely well."

"Second, we see that the solar influence is largely over-estimated."

"However, the biggest error here comes from an underestimate of the volcanic influence. Whereas the regression “removal” essentially sees the influence of the exogenous factor end after the forcing ends (plus whatever lag is diagnosed), the energy balance model used here shows a continuing influence through the last decade as part of the recovery."

None of that refutes Forster and Rahmstorf paper, it's more of a "fine tuning" unless further work shows that they made a major mistake with the volcanic part.

Going to be interesting to see how this works out.
I agree they have a good idea but as Masters shows the underlying signal shown is not the actual underlying signal.

The way I see it is the graph and conclusions should not be used until this is sorted out.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
What's the difference if someone interprets the Dr's blogs to say it's 32/70 or 12/70? Why even debate the matter? It's obvious that the Dr. is 70/70 in his desire to spread his thoughts.....and it seems to me that he's got every right to try his best to expound his views so others can understand as he sees things...it is his blog. I think he does a good job with the only caveat being that I missed his more detailed analysis of tropical cyclones last season as opposed to previous seasons...and I would like to see if possible more on this front.


Just debating the math that one used!

I LOVE Florida pop up summer storms! This was taken from my house last August with my citrus trees in view.

Is it just me or do these storms seem to be starting unusually early in South Florida this year?
For the first time in 2013 the vertical instability is above average in the Tropical Atlantic.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
For the first time in 2013 the vertical instability is above average in the Tropical Atlantic.

Is about time!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
For the first time in 2013 the vertical instability is above average in the Tropical Atlantic.



Let's see how this goes in the next few months.
Quoting nymore:
It is hard to not understand this

Note that by pause in global warming I am specifically referring to a near-halt in the underlying low-frequency signal of surface temperatures (not ocean heat content), a signal not influenced by the typical exogenous factors of ENSO, volcanoes, or solar activity. This has been recently attempted in Foster and Rahmstorf (2011), from which they conclude that from the removal of these three factors via multiple regression they have isolat[ed] the global warming signal and that there is no indication of any slowdown or acceleration of global warming, beyond the variability induced by these known natural factors. Rahmstorf et al. (2012) proceeds to compare this adjusted temperature evolution to model projections, which I think is particularly dangerous if what you get after this multiple regression approach is not the underlying signal.

I see some are still in denial. I find it funny when alarmist turn into denialists


It's funny when you misrepresent what he was investigating. He actually makes the statement that the multiple regression technique "can" lead to misleading results, he makes no claim that Foster and Rahmstorf's result are indeed misleading. There's a fine line there that you should look into. Master's paper is interesting from a methodological standpoint on regression analysis and did not prove/disprove anything in regards to Foster and Rahmstorf.
314. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
For the first time in 2013 the vertical instability is above average in the Tropical Atlantic.



You can actually see how all the pieces of the puzzle are slowly coming together ...
315. DDR
Quoting Levi32:


That's probably because the last 3 years have all been either spring La Ninas or rapidly falling El Ninos. That atmospheric state combined with a warm AMO in the Atlantic tends to force the ITCZ closer to the Caribbean.

Thanks Levi
316. SLU
Quoting SLU:


You can actually see how all the pieces of the puzzle are slowly coming together ...


Lifting ITCZ, increasing instability in the MDR, lowering pressures in the MDR, warming SSTs, increasing likelihood of a neutral or even cool biased ENSO, lowering wind shear in the MDR, slower than normal trades.....
317. SLU
Quoting SLU:


Lifting ITCZ, increasing instability in the MDR, lowering pressures in the MDR, warming SSTs, increasing likelihood of a neutral or even cool biased ENSO, lowering wind shear in the MDR, slower than normal trades.....
Quoting SLU:


Lifting ITCZ, increasing instability in the MDR, lowering pressures in the MDR, warming SSTs, increasing likelihood of a neutral or even cool biased ENSO, lowering wind shear in the MDR, slower than normal trades.....


Also the tripole causing most of the energy to concentrate on the MDR instead in the subtropics.
Quoting SLU:


Lifting ITCZ, increasing instability in the MDR, lowering pressures in the MDR, warming SSTs, increasing likelihood of a neutral or even cool biased ENSO, lowering wind shear in the MDR, slower than normal trades.....
And we need to watch the steering pattern for this year as well.
The continuing snowstorms, the dearth of tornadoes, all totally expected consequences of climate change.
GFS Ensembles aren't bullish about any warmth across the East or Central USA in general for the first few days of May as they had been the past few days.



Quoting DoctorDave1:
The continuing snowstorms, the dearth of tornadoes, all totally expected consequences of climate change.
Extremes in weather are, indeed, an expected consequence of a changing climate. Remember,
"extreme" neither always nor necessarily means "a whole bunch of". With precipitation, "extreme" ranges from deep and prolonged drought to sustained, flood-producing rainfall; with tornadoes, "extreme" ranges from many more than average to far fewer than average. And so on...
324. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Also the tripole causing most of the energy to concentrate on the MDR instead in the subtropics.


Yes I meant to mention that too.
325. SLU
Quoting Gearsts:
And we need to watch the steering pattern for this year as well.


It could favour more westward moving storms according to the UKMET and CFS.
Quoting nymore:
I agree they have a good idea but as Masters shows the underlying signal shown is not the actual underlying signal.

The way I see it is the graph and conclusions should not be used until this is sorted out.


I would say that if someone wants to use the F&R paper they should include a warning that someone has questioned part of their findings. The Master's paper hasn't undergone adequate review as far as I can tell. It could also be the case that he has made the mistake.

That aside, the recent slow down in surface temperature increase is meaningless. Annual global temperature measurements are so "noisy" that it takes several years to determine if there has been an actual change in warming rate. I think the number is somewhere around 15 (+/-3) years. For now the apparent slowing is "interesting" but nothing more until we get several years more data.
A few hail reports tonight, mostly from one supercell that started over KS and has moved south into OK.



Overall though, this is an extremely quiet severe weather pattern. No big events in sight.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
For the first time in 2013 the vertical instability is above average in the Tropical Atlantic.

Hopefully it continues to get more unstable; I am just itching for an interesting hurricane season.
Remember cape verde season starts in Mid late-July...


Quoting stormchaser19:
Remember cape verde season starts in Mid-July...




But hurricanes Bertha in 1996 and 2008 started the Cape Verde season earlier than that!
Minneapolis needs 7.8" of snow from this storm to tie their record for the snowiest April, and 7.9" to break it. Go snow!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


But hurricanes Bertha in 1996 and 2008 started the Cape Verde season earlier than that!


You are talking about unusual cases...I'm talking about usual!!!
Quoting BobChecks:


I wasn't asking about you specifically, although based on what I've seen you post I would assume you to be in the denier camp.

Let me ask a different way?

Do you have any idea why some (not including you) follow the science of weather yet reject the science of climate?

I'm not asking about whether you or others might object to a particular poster's "personality". I'm asking about why some seem to treat science as a Chinese menu, select out the data they like and dump what makes them pucker.

When have I ever denied the science?.Yes it is true that I have sarcastic remarks for the people that go off the deep in to prove their point.Their post can be insulting sometimes that it can not be taken serious thus making all of the believers seem aggressive.

Now to answer your second question everyone likes to back up and prove their statement and to be honest their is "cherry picking" on both sides of the debate not just one.
Quoting stormchaser19:


You are talking about unusual cases...I'm talking about usual!!!


Just in case we'll need to watch out for Bertha in 2014.



And it is the unusual we will remember about this season!
Quoting washingtonian115:
When have I ever denied the science?.Yes it is true that I have sarcastic remarks for the people that go off the deep in to prove their point.Their post can be insulting sometimes that it can not be taken serious thus making all of the believers seem aggressive.

Now to answer your second question everyone likes to back up and prove their statement and to be honest their is "cherry picking" on both sides of the debate not just one.


There's the old saying that one knows a lot about people by the company they keep. I can't say that I've paid a lot of attention to you, but it does seem to be that you side with the denier camp a lot.

If you've taken a good look at the science and find that the planet is warming and that it is due to human activity then that would make you a non-denier. You might want to make that clear from time to time so that people don't misunderstand you.

Now, your explanation of why some continue to discard climate science while clinging to weather science, that collection of words doesn't even make sense.
I find  it highly counterproductive when people dismiss budding science like cosmic rays just because(seemingly) it contradicts MMGW.
Or is posted by someone that is deemed a denialist. When in actuality it is something that could add to our scientiffic understanding of how our Earths systems work.

What I seem to hear from those that seemingly dont want to hear about cosmic rays is that its not proven so dismiss it.


How about its has some interest, lets study it further and see where it leads.

So its underfunded,thus not peer reviewed thus its just another denialist diversion.
Bull hockey!
Give it a chance and see what it can teach us.
Denialist/warmist!
Who gives a crud.
Study it further.
Quoting spathy:
I find  it highly counterproductive when people dismiss budding science like cosmic rays just because(seemingly) it contradicts MMGW.
That's not why the area has been dismissed, spathy. In fact, it hasn't been dismissed at all. The role that cosmic rays play in climate change has been studied hundreds of times by many different scientists working across many different disciplines, and so far there's been absolutely no conclusive evidence that they add or subtract more than a few percentage points from overall observed warming.

You know, sometimes scientists downplay (not dismiss) "budding" ideas not because they contradict any mainstream theory, but because they contradict common sense and the laws of physics and everything else that is known.
Quoting BobChecks:


I would say that if someone wants to use the F&R paper they should include a warning that someone has questioned part of their findings. The Master's paper hasn't undergone adequate review as far as I can tell. It could also be the case that he has made the mistake.

That aside, the recent slow down in surface temperature increase is meaningless. Annual global temperature measurements are so "noisy" that it takes several years to determine if there has been an actual change in warming rate. I think the number is somewhere around 15 (+/-3) years. For now the apparent slowing is "interesting" but nothing more until we get several years more data.


A couple of points

1. Master's "paper' isn't a paper, the link goes to Master's blog. A Google Scholar search for Troy Master+climate+multple regression yields no relevant papers. So until Masters has published it, he won't get any recognition in the scientific community.

2. On time neded to establish a trend, 30 years is used by the World Meteorological Oragnization:


"Climate “normals” are reference points used by climatologists to compare current climatological trends to that of the past or what is considered “normal”. A Normal is defined as the arithmetic average of a climate element (e.g. temperature) over a 30-year period. A 30 year period is used, as it is long enough to filter out any interannual variation or anomalies, but also short enough to be able to show longer climatic trends. The current climate normal period is calculated from 1 January 1961 to 31 December 1990."

343. etxwx
On Earth Day, distant seed vault preserves world’s plant diversity
By Erika Bolstad | McClatchy Newspapers 4.22.2013

WASHINGTON — Excerpt: Deep in a mountain on a remote island above the Arctic Circle in Norway, scientists conserve thousands of varieties of seeds so they can be studied and used for future food needs. The seeds in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault are the backup for other gene banks around the world, including one in Syria that’s been threatened by civil unrest.

On Monday, Earth Day, the director of the trust responsible for the seeds, Marie Haga, spoke about its conservation work, which has been focused lately on saving seeds that growers will need to develop crops in the face of changing growing conditions caused by climate change.

The interview with Marie Haga can be read here.
Quoting Neapolitan:
You know, sometimes scientists downplay (not dismiss) "budding" ideas not because they contradict any mainstream theory, but because they contradict common sense and the laws of physics and everything else that is known.
Darn those "Laws of Physics", not even the the North Carolina legislatue nor King Canute can overturn them.
345. txjac
@ JohnLonergan

This part of your post is paritally what confuses me:

A Normal is defined as the arithmetic average of a climate element (e.g. temperature) over a 30-year period. A 30 year period is used, as it is long enough to filter out any interannual variation or anomalies, but also short enough to be able to show longer climatic trends. The current climate normal period is calculated from 1 January 1961 to 31 December 1990."

How did scientists agree upon 30 years?
We have 50 year floods, 100 year earthquakes?
When looking at certain aspects of investigating GW/CC/MMGW are differnt spans of years used?
Thunderstorm approaching to the island of Kauai:

Quoting Civicane49:
Thunderstorm approaching to the island of Kauai:



AT 521 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
34 KNOTS OR GREATER 11 NM WEST OF FAD BUOY KK...OR ABOUT 12 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KEKAHA...MOVING EAST AT 15 KNOTS.
My god what this blog has become.
Quoting aburttschell:
My god what this blog has become.

I know, right? I've met so many people willing to share so much information and have learned so much.
935 hrs to go till jun 1
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
935 hrs to go till jun 1

seems like yesterday
Quoting Levi32:


Nope, but I want to really bad. Maybe if I get accepted to FSU I will get to.


Heck if I got accepted into the MET program at FSU, I'm pretty darn sure you'll get in. Just keep decent grades in physics and mathematics.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I know, right? I've met so many people willing to share so much information and have learned so much.


Thanks, TA. That means a lot. :)
CLIMATIC NORMALS were estalished by agreement of inernational meterological organizations.

"Climatologists define a climatic normal as the arithmetic average of a climate element such as temperature over a prescribed 30-year interval.� The 30 year interval was selected by international agreement, based on the recommendations of the International Meteorological Conference in Warsaw in 1933.� The 30 year interval is sufficiently long to filter out many of the short-term interannual fluctuations and anomalies, but sufficiently short so as to be used to reflect longer term climatic trends.� Currently, the 30-year interval for calculating normals extends from 1971 to 2000."


A one-hundred-year flood is a flood event that has a 1% probability of occurring in any given year. The 100-year flood is also referred to as the 1% flood, since its annual exceedance probability is 1%,[1] or as having a return period of 100-years. The 100-year flood is generally expressed as a flowrate. Based on the expected 100-year flood flow rate in a given creek, river or surface water system, the flood water level can be mapped as an area of inundation. The resulting floodplain map is referred to as the 100-year floodplain, which may figure very importantly in building permits, environmental regulations, and flood insurance
Quoting washingtonian115:
When have I ever denied the science?.Yes it is true that I have sarcastic remarks for the people that go off the deep in to prove their point.Their post can be insulting sometimes that it can not be taken serious thus making all of the believers seem aggressive.

Now to answer your second question everyone likes to back up and prove their statement and to be honest their is "cherry picking" on both sides of the debate not just one.


Your probably called a science denier not because of your stand on science, but because of your stand on other issues which have nothing to do with science, its what name callers driven by tribalism do best.
I do not likes what is going on here!
Strong storms in Oklahoma

Quoting geepy86:

seems like yesterday


stop that you

lol

hello geep how are ya

hello gro ya TA is another up and coming

our future does not look bad we have a few shining stars among us

don't let it go to yer head TA
WUnder what this is off Cape Canaveral. The three things moving in the other direction of the weather.

Quoting Skyepony:
WUnder what this is off Cape Canaveral. The three things moving in the other direction of the weather.

strafing exercise?
Quoting Skyepony:
WUnder what this is off Cape Canaveral. The three things moving in the other direction of the weather.



what IS that ??? or what are those ???
UFO's? (post359)
It is starting to look like chaff. There's some kinda diffuse looking chaff tonight off the SE coast coming on Bahamas. The wispy looking stuff.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
612 PM HST MON APR 22 2013

HIC007-230600-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FA.Y.0073.130423T0412Z-130423T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
KAUAI HI-
612 PM HST MON APR 22 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF KAUAI IN KAUAI COUNTY

* UNTIL 800 PM HST

* AT 600 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH A LARGE
AREA OF HEAVY RAIN APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST KAUAI COASTLINE
TOWARD WAIMEA AND PAKALA VILLAGE. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL BRING TORRENTIAL
RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND OF KAUAI DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
POLIHALE...HAENA...WAINIHA...NA PALI STATE PARK...MOLOAA...KALALAU
VALLEY...KAWAIHAU...PRINCEVILLE...KOKEE STATE PARK...KILAUEA...
KAPAA...KALIHIWAI...HANALEI AND ANAHOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING.

RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE
TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 800 PM HST IF HEAVY RAIN
PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2215 15976 2226 15954 2223 15927 2196 15931
2186 15944 2189 15961 2201 15981

$$

REYNES
Quoting whitewabit:


what IS that ??? or what are those ???

seagulls after a late night....weird
plymouth is picking it up as well weird

Speaking of waterspouts and all, I found some amazing footage of a waterspout making landfall on the Carolina coast. Note the people behaving very FOOLISH by not taking cover faster. If it had changed direction an accelerated towards those people, it wouldn't have been good.

Quoting Skyepony:
It is starting to look like chaff. There's some kinda diffuse looking chaff tonight off the SE coast coming on Bahamas. The wispy looking stuff.
that's what i meant, chaff, not strafing :P
maybe a low level swirl as the system moves off and up the coast

Jedkins WOW!!
Keep could be.
Attack of the blobs.



Probably will disappear sometime here. LOL
Quoting bappit:
Attack of the blobs.



Probably will disappear sometime here. LOL


Heavy ground clutter storms..
After two days with no invests 91P was declared. 15kts.

Quoting Skyepony:


Heavy ground clutter storms..


lol .. the only kind of storm I want to see for a while !!
Wabit~ That's a big area of flooding..
Quoting Skyepony:
Wabit~ That's a big area of flooding..


Skye .. yes it is a large area under flooding conditions .. probably 75% of Illinois has had flooding in the last week or so .. and any more rain will only aggravate the situation ..
the relentless snow just keeps coming down across the Twin cities

THE THUNDERSTORM MOVING EAST OVER WATERS JUST SOUTH OF KAUAI HAS
INTENSIFIED TO THE POINT THAT IT IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...AND SMALL HAIL.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
colder is not the right word to use in the summer time more like cooler!
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
802 PM HST MON APR 22 2013

HIC007-230800-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FA.Y.0074.130423T0602Z-130423T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
KAUAI HI-
802 PM HST MON APR 22 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF KAUAI IN KAUAI COUNTY

* UNTIL 1000 PM HST

* AT 754 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST KAUAI...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE AREA FROM
HANAMAULU AND WESTWARD TO WAIMEA. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KIPU
FALLS...WAILUA...PUHI...POIPU...PAKALA VILLAGE AND KALAHEO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING.

RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE
TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 1000 PM HST IF HEAVY
RAIN PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2197 15973 2210 15929 2196 15932 2186 15944
2190 15964

$$

REYNES
273 TropicalAnalystwx13: Ran across this earlier:
The authors report on a finding that annual U.S hurricane counts are significantly related to solar activity. The relationship results from fewer intense tropical cyclones over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico when sunspot numbers are high...
Anybody believe it?

I don't see any correlation that lends plausibility to the idea.



As of 8:45 pm HST, the highest total amount of rainfall on Kauai over the past 24 hours was 2.06 inches in Kalaheo. It is located on the southern part of the island, where it received torrential rain from the thunderstorm earlier today. However, wet weather is not over yet for the garden isle. WSR-88D radar data on Kauai shows that there are more showers ahead.
Good morning folks! 7-day Tampa Bay area.............
Quoting bjrabbit:
There seems to be a lot of preaching to the choir by Dr. Masters on this blog....I wonder why?

Back in the day, it was vogue to present both sides of an argument and then let the informed reader decide. I realize this is Dr. Master's blog...but, you will never see anything counter to the GW pack mentality.

I fully trust that the Russians will leak even more e-mails between these "scientists" proving this hoax the next time the polls start to show the low information person starting to believe this stuff.

This kind of non-sense cost how many lives in Britain this past winter?

Electric cars, windmills and solar will never replace good old coal and natural gas....God Bless Fracking!!




And of course we never are able to prove or disprove the effects of HAARP!
Which in my opinion is the cause for all of the wacky weather! but again, I'm labeled as a KOOK! by the GW crowd for my thought's, even though they can't disprove my tin hat approach!!
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. Yesterday I enjoyed my 'spring break' of one day...

It's a beautiful 61 degrees, I've already been out watering the garden while the dogs were out. Highs of about 80 later on. Then it looks like a decent chance of rain for the rest of the week. Saves on my water bill.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Steak and eggs, toast, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy
wikipedia=not a good reference only use as a guide
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Minneapolis needs 7.8" of snow from this storm to tie their record for the snowiest April, and 7.9" to break it. Go snow!


My good friends in Minneapolis beg to differ :)
Quoting BobChecks:


There's the old saying that one knows a lot about people by the company they keep. I can't say that I've paid a lot of attention to you, but it does seem to be that you side with the denier camp a lot.

If you've taken a good look at the science and find that the planet is warming and that it is due to human activity then that would make you a non-denier. You might want to make that clear from time to time so that people don't misunderstand you.

Now, your explanation of why some continue to discard climate science while clinging to weather science, that collection of words doesn't even make sense.


Yep .162 and at a flatline rise; Sound those sirens!
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

A trough will move close to the islands Wednesday thru Thursday period bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.I don't like that last paragraph of discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST TUE APR 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP FAIR WX CONDITIONS
TODAY. TROF EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL AMPLIFY WITH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WED-THU. TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA FRI WITH IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOW TRENDING TOWARD THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS SHOWING A LESS AMPLIFIED AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WED-THU WITH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
FRI. FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIR
WX CONDITIONS. ON WED...TROF AMPLIFYING INTO THE DOM REP AND PR
WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH TSTMS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE CORDILLERA AS INDUCED SFC TROF
WEAKENS PRES GRADIENT AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. STEERING CURRENTS BECOME VERY WEAK FROM THE WEST SO
EXPECT TSTMS TO MOVE VERY LITTLE AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO H5 TEMPS TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND WBZ HEIGHTS BELOW 12KFT WILL ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TSTMS TO BE PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS. ON
THU...STEERING CURRENTS BECOME MORE FROM THE NORTH WITH TSTMS
FORMING ON THE SRN SLOPES AND MOVING SWD INTO THE CARIB SEA BY
EVENING.

TROF AXIS SWINGS BY EARLY FRI WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ESTABLISHING LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FRI THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SO AS WE APPROACH THE END OF APRIL WHICH TYPICALLY
SIGNALS THE ONSET OF THE WET SEASON CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER DRY FOR
THE LAST FIVE DAYS OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
IN AND AROUND JSJ/IST/ISX TIL 23/13Z. AFT 23/16Z...SHALLOW AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW PR AND MAY AFFECT JMZ/JBQ.
EAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AOB 15 KT. A
SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SWELL EVENT IS NOW FORECAST BY WW3 FOR SAT-SUN
WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM GLOBAL WAVE WATCH INDICATING 100% PROB OF
EXCEEDING 3-METER SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 30 20 30 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 30 10 10 10
Low developing off the east coast? It was 1016mb yesterday and 1013 a few hours later. Still attatched to the front though. But that's how the last Andrea developed right?
Morning all across the other side of the Pacific.


New Zealand's wet week
Weatherwatch NZ



A low pressure system that was responsible for seeing regions of New Zealand go from drought zones to flood zones this weekend will continue to affect the nation for a few more days.

WeatherWatch.co.nz predicts the low will linger in the Tasman Sea until about Wednesday before a westerly change replaces it.

In true Autumn style the westerly will bring a variety of weather with showers, some heavy, in the mix - along with long dry spells. The westerly is likely to bring the bulk of the rain and showers to western areas of both islands from Wednesday to Friday.

The westerly flow means eastern areas are likely to be sunnier, warmer and drier than they were last week.

Another front will sweep up the country on Friday and Saturday from the south west before a new high rolls in this coming weekend.

However the high is being challenged by rainmakers - meaning the big dry may well be reversed completely for some regions before May 1st even arrives. Certainly torrential rain across the weekend reversed drought conditions for big portions of New Zealand - but follow up rain is still needed for some areas, with perhaps the exception of western Bay of Plenty and eastern Coromandel Peninsula following the weekend floods.

Weatherzone 2013








Everyone have a great Tuesday. Aussie, have a wonderful Wednesday.
SE US might have to watch this. We had some STS's develope from this situation just last May.


Quoting LargoFl:
Good morning folks! 7-day Tampa Bay area.............


Those rain chances will get bumped up big time over the coming days. Good morning Largo up to 6.20" of rain for the month of April now as the rain just keeps coming on my side of the state.

GFS has rain in or around my area from hour 48 to 216....

and it never really gets overly warm either, just low to mid 70s for highs, and 40s and 50s for lows.
Euro is beginning to show a pattern that is seemingly conducive for early tropical threats to the SE US. Next week looks interesting as we could have our first invest to watch. In this pic below the UPPER Low/ surface low moves into the SE US and moves WEST across the Gulf Coast.

CMC also showing some interesting developments off the SE US next week.



EURO
406. beell
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
SE US might have to watch this. We had some STS's develope from this situation just last May.




Not a chance (imo)
:-)

Check out the continental surface temps along the east coast. This "air" would be entrained into any surface circulation keeping it frontal in nature. And the mid-level shortwave should flatten out as it moves NE up the coast leading to a surface low that will not deepen that much. And there is not a lot of time before this happens. Maybe.

407. VR46L
Good Morning folks !!

ESPI has gone down a good deal in the past couple of weeks.

ESPI at -139
Quoting beell:


Not a chance (imo)
:-)

Check out the continental surface temps along the east coast. This "air" would be entrained into any surface circulation keeping it frontal in nature. And the mid-level shortwave should flatten out as it moves NE up the coast leading to a surface low that will not deepen that much. And there is not a lot of time before this happens. Maybe.



410. VR46L
Umm old Man Winter just dont want to let up this Year...

411. beell
Quoting StormTrackerScott:




Ok, my bad. Thought your graphic @ post 400 was current-not at 192 hrs.

Back to lurkin'.
Quoting bjrabbit:
There seems to be a lot of preaching to the choir by Dr. Masters on this blog....I wonder why?

Back in the day, it was vogue to present both sides of an argument and then let the informed reader decide. I realize this is Dr. Master's blog...but, you will never see anything counter to the GW pack mentality.

I fully trust that the Russians will leak even more e-mails between these "scientists" proving this hoax the next time the polls start to show the low information person starting to believe this stuff.

This kind of non-sense cost how many lives in Britain this past winter?

Electric cars, windmills and solar will never replace good old coal and natural gas....God Bless Fracking!!




Windmills, solar and anything else they can do would help with that...being most people who'd have died over the cold winter, did because they couldn't afford to heat their homes at the extortionist rates of the power companies. Raising their rates consistantly, as go their profits constistantly, while a lot of people can't afford to heat their homes consistantly. Heat or eat as they say.

Speaking of, finally milder here. Been hovering round 50', which feels absolutely balmy after all the freezes LOL Been sorting the wee garden where I've moved to. Just need to find things easy to grow for this climate as just don't know gardening at all, but really want to grow somethings. Have planted my red currant and raspberry bush out of their planters and into the ground, so hoping at least those will do better this year.
The itcz has not been that far north in recent years ,six weeks prior the official start of the 2013 hurricane season. also the TWP is also showing an abundance of moisture in that zone. this looks ominous because what will happen is the formation of more storms deep in the tropics this coming season.
if the present conditions continue to hold, then the season will be more active than the april forecast. if the pieces of the puzzle are coming together as outlined by SLU, then I expect the numbers to go up in the early june forecasts
If we don't get some warm weather here on the Eastcoast,forget about hurricanes! We will be hurled into another iceage!lol
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:
Quoting bjrabbit:
There seems to be a lot of preaching to the choir by Dr. Masters on this blog....I wonder why?

Back in the day, it was vogue to present both sides of an argument and then let the informed reader decide. I realize this is Dr. Master's blog...but, you will never see anything counter to the GW pack mentality.

I fully trust that the Russians will leak even more e-mails between these "scientists" proving this hoax the next time the polls start to show the low information person starting to believe this stuff.

This kind of non-sense cost how many lives in Britain this past winter?

Electric cars, windmills and solar will never replace good old coal and natural gas....God Bless Fracking!!




Windmills, solar and anything else they can do would help with that...being most people who'd have died over the cold winter, did because they couldn't afford to heat their homes at the extortionist rates of the power companies. Raising their rates consistantly, as go their profits constistantly, while a lot of people can't afford to heat their homes consistantly. Heat or eat as they say.

Speaking of, finally milder here. Been hovering round 50', which feels absolutely balmy after all the freezes LOL Been sorting the wee garden where I've moved to. Just need to find things easy to grow for this climate as just don't know gardening at all, but really want to grow somethings. Have planted my red currant and raspberry bush out of their planters and into the ground, so hoping at least those will do better this year.


Good Morning mitthbevnuruodo..
Long time no see on this blog..
My secret connections tell me the Raspberry and currant will do great..
Watch the tender veggies..
Go to Skyepony's blog for tips..
Good to see ya.. :)

PS..The rant from bjrabbit reeks of nonsense..
Quoting stoormfury:
The itcz has not been that far north in recent years ,six weeks prior the official start of the 2013 hurricane season. also the TWP is also showing an abundance of moisture in that zone. this looks ominous because what will happen is the formation of more storms deep in the tropics this coming season.


Good Morning stoormfury..
Cape Verde season is to be robust this year IMO..
I have noticed the Indian Ocean and it's effects on our T/C season from years past and it looks to be in the realm of the 2004 season in comparison..
Hope I'm wrong.. :(
Good Morning Wu..
A very moist 67 degrees right now with dews at 62..
Partly cloudy with winds flat..
Pollen is outrageous..

Beach looks a bit gloomy right now..

Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning stoormfury..
Cape Verde season is to be robust this year IMO..
I have noticed the Indian Ocean and it's effects on our T/C season from years past and it looks to be in the realm of the 2004 season in comparison..
Hope I'm wrong.. :(


I hope you are wrong too!

Moisture in the heartland and Mid-West..
A good thing..





422. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
if the present conditions continue to hold, then the season will be more active than the april forecast. if the pieces of the puzzle are coming together as outlined by SLU, then I expect the numbers to go up in the early june forecasts


The bulls eye could be focused near the Caribbean and SE US this year according to the MSLP anomaly forecasts from some of the computer models namely the UKMET and the EUROSIP (the consensus of several models). Even the outlier ECMWF which in its last forecast shows a hostile environment mostly shows the highest pressures in the sub-tropics with a lower probability of high pressures in the Caribbean. I will post a few graphics to illustrate later on to show how the storm tracks tend to congregate where the SLP's are the lowest.
St Louis, MO (KLSX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Dodge City, KS (KDDC) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Topeka, KS (KTWX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I hope you are wrong too!



(Swallows Hard )..
Morning Geoff..
Don't like the way things are lining up..
I remember all too well..
It's too friggin cold for late April. I was wearing shorts this time last year. Wearing a jacket now.
Quoting SLU:


The bulls eye could be focused near the Caribbean and SE US this year according to the MSLP anomaly forecasts from some of the computer models namely the UKMET and the EUROSIP (the consensus of several models). Even the outlier ECMWF which in its last forecast shows a hostile environment mostly shows the highest pressures in the sub-tropics with a lower probability of high pressures in the Caribbean. I will post a few graphics to illustrate later on to show how the storm tracks tend to congregate where the SLP's are the lowest.


Please do..
This has/is a strange weather pattern with lots of variability..
I hate to bring it up but starting with the end of last years T/C season as well as this winter it's be very hard for models to keep up and accurately predict..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's too friggin cold for late April. I was wearing shorts this time last year. Wearing a jacket now.


Morning TA..
I know right?
My azaleas are very confused..
Current Nat.Map..



Current Wind Map..



Current Jet Stream Analysis..





Not as the TA image resolution , but :)!!!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's too friggin cold for late April. I was wearing shorts this time last year. Wearing a jacket now.


yeah, was 45F at swim practice this morning.....brrr...
This is annoying.

And no significant severe wx in sight either.
Quoting stoormfury:
if the present conditions continue to hold, then the season will be more active than the april forecast. if the pieces of the puzzle are coming together as outlined by SLU, then I expect the numbers to go up in the early june forecasts


If the present conditions hold, we will have several recurves out to sea. We have had trough after trough set up over the eastern US for a while now.
Parts of the Plains have not joined in on drought relief this spring.

Since Mar. 1, the Texas Panhandle and South Plains have picked up only a trace (Midland) to 0.20" (Amarillo) of precipitation.
The only storm I'm looking forward to is Karen to see if she comes back and get her revenge on some of the bloggers here.Other than that I'm not feeling this season.I'm gonna wait and see how the season plays out.But at least hurricane season is a better topic than __ (not going to put the two letters).
Quoting Chucktown:


If the present conditions hold, we will have several recurves out to sea. We have had trough after trough set up over the eastern US for a while now.
I agree.Something I said earlier this month but got shot down for it -_-.Just because someone is not spewing doom and gloom for the up coming season doesn't mean their opinion should be over looked.I was being sensible when I said the comment but the usual rolls around and does the "we can't see that far out".
Weird hearing about all the cold up north while here in FL it's been very summerish with daily thunderstorms. Also no tornado outbreaks for atleast 2 weeks. Looks like a dud Tornado Season this year as the pattern isn't going to change.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I agree.Something I said earlier this month but got shot down for it -_-.Just because someone is not spewing doom and gloom for the up coming season doesn't mean their opinion should be over looked.I was being sensible when I said the comment but the usual rolls around and does the "we can't see that far out".


Good Morning Washi..
You're right in what you say about the T/C season..
And also about "we can't see that far out"..
I'm not a "doom and gloom" type but more of a realist..
I really would like Dr. Master to post a T/C blog.. :(
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Weird hearing about all the cold up north while here in FL it's been very summerish with daily thunderstorms. Also no tornado outbreaks for atleast 2 weeks. Looks like a dud Tornado Season this year as the pattern isn't going to change.



Been rather coolish here in NW Florida where I'm at..
Several record lows at my location..
And about Tornado season..
I hope you and your crystal ball are right..
438. SLU
Here is a brief sample using two very active seasons with major landfalling hurricanes and notice the bull's eye over Florida in 2004 with the well below average SLPs and the congregation of storm tracks aimed at Florida. Also notice the lower pressures in the central Atlantic near the congregation of the tracks of the recurving storms.



Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Also, notice how the storm tracks all congregated in the areas of lower pressure in 2008 mainly in the northern Caribbean, central Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico.



Image and video hosting by TinyPic

A similar pattern of the congregation of storm tracks is likely near the Caribbean again this year.





Quoting washingtonian115:
The only storm I'm looking forward to is Karen to see if she comes back and get her revenge on some of the bloggers here.Other than that I'm not feeling this season.I'm gonna wait and see how the season plays out.But at least hurricane season is a better topic than __ (not going to put the two letters).


These storms names seem quite boring,but the season doesn't seems to be boring!!
2013
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dorian
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
Olga produced a lot of damage here in DR in 2007, not mentioned that the storm forms in december 11th


Quoting pcola57:


Been rather coolish here in NW Florida where I'm at..
Several record lows at my location..
And about Tornado season..
I hope you and your crystal ball are right..


Here across the FL Penisula it's been abnormally humid lately however the air does feel much drier today.

Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning Washi..
You're right in what you say about the T/C season..
And also about "we can't see that far out"..
I'm not a "doom and gloom" type but more of a realist..
I really would like Dr. Master to post a T/C blog.. :(
Good morning.P cola I know your being a sensible and realistic person with your predictions and you mean well and so do most people on here.It's just that when I was referring to the pattern and "that if we keep up with these troughs it looks like another recurve season" I was shot down because most people are and still is forecasting a impacting season(Caribbean,GOM) type set up.But because I wasn't seeing that type of pattern I was in the wrong.


good morning no heat index to speak of anywhere across the board guess we are just going to have to jump right into summer
Quoting SLU:
Here is a brief sample using two very active seasons with major landfalling hurricanes and notice the bull's eye over Florida in 2004 with the well below average SLPs and the congregation of storm tracks aimed at Florida. Also notice the lower pressures in the central Atlantic where the congregation of the tracks of the recurving storms.



Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Also, notice how the storm tracks all congregated in the areas of lower pressure in 2008 mainly in the northern Caribbean, central Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico.



Image and video hosting by TinyPic

A similar pattern of the congregation of storm tracks is likely near the Caribbean again this year.







Agree to a point SLU..
Great research and graphic comparisons..
As much as I agree that Cape Verde storms recurve alot and also there is a "funneling" affect once they start out in the lower Lats..
I see a lot of variability in this years weather so far..
Don't know how that plays into the T/C though..
Like I said..
Waiting for Dr. Masters to weigh in..
Should be an interesting post..
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Those rain chances will get bumped up big time over the coming days. Good morning Largo up to 6.20" of rain for the month of April now as the rain just keeps coming on my side of the state.

good morning scott, we got some good rain the other night alright..but local mets dont think this next front will be a central florida event..but maybe for northern florida..we'll see what happens long way off yet
Quoting washingtonian115:
Good morning.P cola I know your being a sensible and realistic person with your predictions and you mean well and so do most people on here.It's just that when I was referring to the pattern and "that if we keep up with these troughs it looks like another recurve season" I was shot down because most people are and still is forecasting a impacting season(Caribbean,GOM) type set up.But because I wasn't seeing that type of pattern I was in the wrong.


Hey Washi..
There are so many bloggers that want to get as close to trolling as they can without a ban..
Me..I lurk..
Post when I think I have something to say..
You are a blogger I do read..
Thanks for your opinions..
They mean something.. :)

RE 396. A trough will move close to the islands Wednesday thru Thursday period bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.I don't like that last paragraph of discussion.


MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AOB 15 KT. A
SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SWELL EVENT IS NOW FORECAST BY WW3 FOR SAT-SUN
WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM GLOBAL WAVE WATCH INDICATING 100% PROB OF
EXCEEDING 3-METER SEAS.



I don't like it either, Tropics! No fishing for us if that forecast stays true.

Lindy
Quoting Chucktown:


If the present conditions hold, we will have several recurves out to sea. We have had trough after trough set up over the eastern US for a while now.


With the current patterns,definitely the storms are going to recurve, but if any storm reaches, or forms in mid-atlantic will be caught by the ridge, and is not going to recurve...


And it's too early to say, what will be the pattern for J-A-S
Quoting SLU:
Here is a brief sample using two very active seasons with major landfalling hurricanes and notice the bull's eye over Florida in 2004 with the well below average SLPs and the congregation of storm tracks aimed at Florida. Also notice the lower pressures in the central Atlantic near the congregation of the tracks of the recurving storms.
This analysis makes sense, but I'm not sure how informative it is.

If hurricane activity in a region is higher than average, then the average surface pressure for that region is very likely to be below normal ... because hurricanes are low pressure systems.

I'm not sure this can be extended in any sort of predictive way ...
Quoting pcola57:


Hey Washi..
There are so many bloggers that want to get as close to trolling as they can without a ban..
Me..I lurk..
Post when I think I have something to say..
You are a blogger I do read..
Thanks for your opinions..
They mean something.. :)
I hope to see your input when hurricane season gets started.Even though you may not be seen as a expert on here P cola your views on things are stilled valued and your one of the few sensible bloggers on here.I would have personally recommending you as a mod.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I agree.Something I said earlier this month but got shot down for it -_-.Just because someone is not spewing doom and gloom for the up coming season doesn't mean their opinion should be over looked.I was being sensible when I said the comment but the usual rolls around and does the "we can't see that far out".


April and May is always gloom and doom on this blog. Then when we go through a 6 or 7 week tropical "dry spell", everyone quickly changes their numbers and reasons why. This is why I don't forecast any numbers, nor should anyone. Who cares if we have 6 or 26 storms. Andrew hit in 1992, we had only 7 named storms. 26 names in 2005 of course included Katrina and Wilma, but yet no real threats to the eastern seaboard north of Florida, with the exception of Ophelia. Look, I say this every year, from Brownsville, TX to Maine, you have a 50/50 chance of being impacted by a hurricane. Either you do or you don't. No one knows what the synoptic set up will be with any one particular storm until it happens. If you asked anyone on this blog last April if we would see a storm of Sandy's magnitude and track, it would be an overwhelming no, including me. We preach this to our viewers every year, it only takes one storm to make it a memorable year.
Quoting Chucktown:


April and May is always gloom and doom on this blog. Then when we go through a 6 or 7 week tropical "dry spell", everyone quickly changes their numbers and reasons why. This is why I don't forecast any numbers, nor should anyone. Who cares if we have 6 or 26 storms. Andrew hit in 1992, we had only 7 named storms. 26 names in 2005 of course included Katrina and Wilma, but yet no real threats to the eastern seaboard north of Florida, with the exception of Ophelia. Look, I say this every year, from Brownsville, TX to Maine, you have a 50/50 chance of being impacted by a hurricane. Either you do or you don't. No one knows what the synoptic set up will be with any one particular storm until it happens. If you asked anyone on this blog last April if we would see a storm of Sandy's magnitude and track, it would be an overwhelming no, including me. We preach this to our viewers every year, it only takes one storm to make it a memorable year.


Bingo.
453. SLU
Quoting pcola57:


Agree to a point SLU..
Great research and graphic comparisons..
As much as I agree that Cape Verde storms recurve alot and also there is a "funneling" affect once they start out in the lower Lats..
I see a lot of variability in this years weather so far..
Don't know how that plays into the T/C though..
Like I said..
Waiting for Dr. Masters to weigh in..
Should be an interesting post..


Thanks. We will have to monitor the patterns between now and July to have a better idea of what will happen but for now all we can do is look at similar trends between this year and previous years and also monitor the model's forecast. So far everything points towards a major season. As to where the storms make landfall, only time will tell ...
For some folks the problem is more ontological than educational.
The idea that the monkeys have fouled the controls of the HVAC system in the primate habitat module - and that there's no repairman to call - is so deeply unsettling for some people that it renders them impervious to factual information.


Quoting BobChecks:


Could you please explain to me why some on this site revel in the science of weather, yet dismiss the science of climate?

The GFS the last 4 or 5 runs have been remarkably consistent at hinting between .5" and 1" or rain over Southern Illinois...

06Z GFS 48 Hour Total Precipitation:

click to enlarge


Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

A trough will move close to the islands Wednesday thru Thursday period bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.I don't like that last paragraph of discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST TUE APR 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP FAIR WX CONDITIONS
TODAY. TROF EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL AMPLIFY WITH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WED-THU. TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA FRI WITH IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOW TRENDING TOWARD THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS SHOWING A LESS AMPLIFIED AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WED-THU WITH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
FRI. FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIR
WX CONDITIONS. ON WED...TROF AMPLIFYING INTO THE DOM REP AND PR
WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH TSTMS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE CORDILLERA AS INDUCED SFC TROF
WEAKENS PRES GRADIENT AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. STEERING CURRENTS BECOME VERY WEAK FROM THE WEST SO
EXPECT TSTMS TO MOVE VERY LITTLE AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO H5 TEMPS TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND WBZ HEIGHTS BELOW 12KFT WILL ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TSTMS TO BE PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS. ON
THU...STEERING CURRENTS BECOME MORE FROM THE NORTH WITH TSTMS
FORMING ON THE SRN SLOPES AND MOVING SWD INTO THE CARIB SEA BY
EVENING.

TROF AXIS SWINGS BY EARLY FRI WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ESTABLISHING LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FRI THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SO AS WE APPROACH THE END OF APRIL WHICH TYPICALLY
SIGNALS THE ONSET OF THE WET SEASON CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER DRY FOR
THE LAST FIVE DAYS OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
IN AND AROUND JSJ/IST/ISX TIL 23/13Z. AFT 23/16Z...SHALLOW AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW PR AND MAY AFFECT JMZ/JBQ.
EAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AOB 15 KT. A
SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SWELL EVENT IS NOW FORECAST BY WW3 FOR SAT-SUN
WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM GLOBAL WAVE WATCH INDICATING 100% PROB OF
EXCEEDING 3-METER SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 30 20 30 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 30 10 10 10


...I don't like this too :

"00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOW TRENDING TOWARD THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS SHOWING A LESS AMPLIFIED AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH"

Of course the contrary will never happen, and especially in the NE Caribbean!! I mean the weaker solution trending towards the stronger one..... IF we were talking about the Central and Southern Lesser Antilles, things would sure be different and more promising. I still can't understand why some just 100 miles south got more than 10 inches.. while I didn't get a drop.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:


Bingo.
Yes that is true.I would have never thought that Sandy was going too run up the coast towards me and millions of others.Honestly even if 2012 had followed the earlier predictions of a below average season we would have still been talking about it thanks to Sandy.This is also why I haven't put a forecast out yet because it could go either way.#post 451 agree.
With a yesterday's forecast calling for around 12" of snow, I feel lucky only getting 8.3". But it's packy with a snow-to-liquid ratio of 6:1. This brings my winter total to 110", about 50" above average for my location. There's a foot of snow on the ground this morning with average last-frost date less than a month away. Might be a short summer here.

I grabbed a screenshot of my webcam at work this morning:

459. SLU
Quoting newt3d:
This analysis makes sense, but I'm not sure how informative it is.

If hurricane activity in a region is higher than average, then the average surface pressure for that region is very likely to be below normal ... because hurricanes are low pressure systems.

I'm not sure this can be extended in any sort of predictive way ...


Yes you are correct. This theory can then be applied to the latest round of computer model forecasts which show lower than normal pressures in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico which is why I believe that the hotspot could be in that area this year.

EUROSIP

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

UKMET

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting CaribBoy:


...I don't like this too :

"00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOW TRENDING TOWARD THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS SHOWING A LESS AMPLIFIED AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH"

Of course the contrary will never happen, and especially in the NE Caribbean!! I mean the weaker solution trending towards the stronger one..... IF we were talking about the Central and Southern Lesser Antilles, things would sure be different and more promising. I still can't understand why some just 100 miles south got more than 10 inches.. while I didn't get a drop.


You talk about 100 miles...can't tell you how many times I've looked over at St. Croix (about 40 miles) where it is pouring or watched the rain clouds and storms brush past us and move into Culebra and Vieques. I totally understand your frustrations!

Lindy
Quoting SLU:


Yes you are correct. This theory can then be applied to the latest round of computer model forecasts which show lower than normal pressures in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico which is why I believe that the hotspot could be in that area this year.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
The models were off last year so I'm skeptical.Some did pick up on higher pressures though in the tropics.We'll see..
finally by fri may 3 looks like the arctic air is being pushed way to the north where it belongs only exception is a cool cutoff low over wash

463. ARiot
Quoting no1der:
For some folks the problem is more ontological than educational.
The idea that the monkeys have fouled the controls of the HVAC system in the primate habitat module - and that there's no repairman to call - is so deeply unsettling for some people that it renders them impervious to factual information.





That, plus factor in hyperbolic discounting or the human discount rate, and you have a unique situation. US culture also facts in the denial of one science while holding other, similar science in high regard.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
finally by fri may 3 looks like the arctic air is being pushed way to the north where it belongs only exception is a cool cutoff low over wash

I hate this weather -__- the trees are taking for ever to bloom so my allergies have been unforgivable.They weren't bad last year necause the trees bloomed early.This year I want to cut all of the trees down and spray plat killer on the flowers.
Quoting 47n91w:
With a yesterday's forecast calling for around 12" of snow, I feel lucky only getting 8.3". But it's packy with a snow-to-liquid ratio of 6:1. This brings my winter total to 110", about 50" above average for my location. There's a foot of snow on the ground this morning with average last-frost date less than a month away. Might be a short summer here.

I grabbed a screenshot of my webcam at work this morning:

i'd like to know the snow-to-liquid ratio for the Twin Cities.. it may look white, but it's about 2.5 inches of pure slush! probably the heaviest substance accumulation i've encountered on the ground. driving last night was fine until vehicles changed lanes, like the ambulance that nearly sent me off the highway spewing mud-like chunks slamming my car, a wall of slush fist.. like never before!
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


You talk about 100 miles...can't tell you how many times I've looked over at St. Croix (about 40 miles) where it is pouring or watched the rain clouds and storms brush past us and move into Culebra and Vieques. I totally understand your frustrations!

Lindy


:-)
rain












Odd article in the news sidebar:

Deadly Colo. Avalanche Difficult to Predict

-snip-

Saturday's slide in near Loveland Pass is called a deep persistent slab avalanche, and it was the kind of avalanche that backcountry snowboarders and skiers were warned of in the area that day.

----------

So it was hard to predict but there was a warning in place that day?

And to top it off, the banner ad was for a Chevy Avalanche. Talk about a bad marketing correlation.
Good Morning. I see folks discussing the start of the Atlantic season. Land falling hurricanes and tropical storms can become epic disasters for mankind but such an incredible sight to witness nature in her full fury, from inception to tropical storm status, which is what attracts us to this field and the blog. Anyway, here is today's Enso update from the Aussies; nothing new (looking like Enso neutral for the start of the season) but this will have an impact on potential trajectories (from the Cape Verde storms) based on historical climatology.

ENSO neutral state expected to persist well into winter
Issued on Tuesday 23 April 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The tropical Pacific has remained in a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state since mid 2012. Currently, all atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO remain within their neutral range. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology favour ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) persisting through the southern hemisphere winter.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has greatest influence upon Australia’s climate from May through to November. Model outlooks indicate a neutral IOD is most likely for the coming months; however, two of the five models surveyed indicate the possibility of a negative IOD heading into the southern spring. A negative IOD during spring increases the chances of above normal rainfall over southern Australia.

Next update expected on 7 May 2013 | print version

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for March shows warm anomalies have emerged along the equator in parts of the eastern Pacific, replacing cool anomalies which were present during February. Warm anomalies in the western Pacific and around Australia’s north and west have weakened while warm anomalies to Australia’s south have strengthened, particularly in the southeast; surface waters in these areas are generally more than 1 °C warmer than average. Broadly, the tropical Pacific Ocean remains close to the long term average.

Quoting Chucktown:


If the present conditions hold, we will have several recurves out to sea. We have had trough after trough set up over the eastern US for a while now.

Most of the global models and their ensembles are in good agreement that an elongated area of high pressure will develop, stretching from the Great Lakes to Southeastern Canada for hurricane season. That certainly does not favor recurvature, and is drastically different than we've seen the past three years.
GFS says canada will finally thaw.

now



1week


Near the end of the run

Also note from the Aussie report; The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for March shows warm anomalies have emerged along the equator in parts of the eastern Pacific

Remember that the E-Pac season starts on May 15th and that may delay the real start of the season on the Atlantic side if we get a huge number of E-pac storms in the months of June and July.
Quoting Minnemike:
i'd like to know the snow-to-liquid ratio for the Twin Cities.. it may look white, but it's about 2.5 inches of pure slush! probably the heaviest substance accumulation i've encountered on the ground. driving last night was fine until vehicles changed lanes, like the ambulance that nearly sent me off the highway spewing mud-like chunks slamming my car, a wall of slush fist.. like never before!


Just glancing at CoCoRaHS reports and it looks like the south side of the Twin Cities had a snow-to-liquid ratio of 5.5:1. St. Paul had 8:1. And the northwest side had closer to 10:1. Looks like the Bloomington area was hit by the slush while Brooklyn Park was cooler and had less-packy snow.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Most of the global models and their ensembles are in good agreement that an elongated area of high pressure will develop, stretching from the Great Lakes to Southeastern Canada for hurricane season. That certainly does not favor recurvature, and is drastically different than we've seen the past three years.


Well, if that transpires, and SST anomalies stay as high as they are now, there will be a lot of landfalling hurricanes.

However, vertical instablity has been below average in the eastern tropical Atlantic the past two years, which is probably why storms failed to intensify as prediced.

If that changes, too, and we get above average vertical instability, it could be a horror show of a season.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's too friggin cold for late April. I was wearing shorts this time last year. Wearing a jacket now.

Today is one of the first days I can wear shorts. Going to be a seasonally warm high in the mid 60s.

Also, due to Internet problems, I won't be able to be on WU very much for the next couple days. That's also why I haven't been here the past 2 days.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Most of the global models and their ensembles are in good agreement that an elongated area of high pressure will develop, stretching from the Great Lakes to Southeastern Canada for hurricane season. That certainly does not favor recurvature, and is drastically different than we've seen the past three years.


You'll always have the Bermuda High and it will always shift east and west throughout the summer and early fall. Its always the timing and strength of each trough that moves along the westerlies and how much of a weakness it can create in that semi-permanent ridge. Ultimately, its always the synoptic set up in the westerlies that dictates the track of a storm.