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More Tornado Strikes May Occur in Mobile Home Parks; Weekend Plains Tornado Outbreak?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on April 25, 2014

It's well-known that one should avoid mobile homes during a tornado, as their relatively flimsy construction and tendency to roll when exposed to high winds leads to numerous deaths each tornado season. The majority of tornado deaths occur in mobile homes for this reason, but tornado experts have long wondered why mobile home parks seem to get disproportionately more tornado strikes than other residential areas. New research by Purdue University researchers Olivia Kellner and Dev Niyogi suggests that "transitions zones"--areas where dramatically different landscapes meet, like where a city fades into farmland, or a forest meets a plain--are more prone to tornado touch downs. Since mobile home parks are often located at the edge of built-up areas, they may actually get hit more often.


Figure 1. Damage to 2-year-old C.J. Martin's mobile home park near Evansville, Indiana due to a November 6, 2005 tornado. Twenty people. including C.J., died in the F3 tornado that devastated his Eastbrook Mobile Home Park in Evansville. The storm hit at 2am, when many residents were asleep and didn't hear the tornado sirens. C.J.'s mother, Kathryn Martin, pushed lawmakers to adopt a bill requiring all mobile homes in Indiana to have a weather radio with a tone alert system, which could have saved many lives in the mobile home park that night. C.J.'s Law was signed into law by Indiana governor Mitch Daniels later that year. Image credit: Paducah, KY NWS.

The researchers studied where tornadoes touched down in Indiana between 1950 and 2012, and found that 61% of tornado touchdowns occurred within 1 kilometer (about 0.62 mile) of urban areas, and 43% fell within 1 kilometer of forest. Kellner said the percentages suggest that certain locations may increase the likelihood of tornado touchdowns due to increased "surface roughness"--an abrupt change in the height of land surface features, which can stretch or squash a column of air, increasing its rate of spin, which could contribute to the formation of tornadoes. Forecasters and city planners may need to pay closer attention to these "transition zones" to better understand tornado risks, said Olivia Kellner, doctoral student in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences in a press release. "There are still many unanswered questions about tornado climatology, but what we're finding is that there may be a relationship between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere that contributes to where tornadoes tend to touch down." The study also found that tornado touchdowns in urban areas tend to occur at about 1 and 10 miles from the city center. Kellner said these "rings" of increased tornado activity could be related to how cities are developed. "Cities impact the surrounding climate in terms of regional airflow and temperature," she said. "The size of cities, what they're made of and the heat they produce are factors that could affect the microclimate."

Original study: Kellner, O., and D. Niyogi, 2014, Land-surface Heterogeneity Signature in Tornado Climatology? An Illustrative Analysis over Indiana 1950-2012, Earth Interactions, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2013EI000548.1


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Sunday, April 27, 2014, as issued on Friday, April 25, by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Weekend tornado and severe weather outbreak coming for the Plains
A multi-day severe weather event is expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday across the Central U.S., as a strong low pressure system will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of generating large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes. The most dangerous day appears to be Sunday, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued their "Moderate Risk" forecast of severe weather over portions of Arkansas , Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana that day. The action will begin Saturday afternoon along a swath from Central Texas northwards into Oklahoma and Kansas, but at present, Saturday's threat warrants only a "Slight Risk" classification from SPC. This weekend's severe weather outbreak has the potential to be the most dangerous one of this relatively quiet 2014, which has yet to spawn a killer tornado. The relatively cool and dry weather across Tornado Alley so far this year has led to no EF-3 or stronger tornadoes as of April 24, which is a record-long wait since modern tornado records began in 1950. According to tornado historian Tom Grazulis' book, Significant Tornadoes 1680-1991, "serious efforts" to document all tornadoes began in 1953, which was the first full year of tornado watches issued by the U.S. Weather Bureau, now the National Weather Service.

I'll have a new post on Monday. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

storm chaser brian emfinger saying possibly tractor trailors, rv, cars , trees, etc mangled on at least a 300yard path...and a gas leak. i 40

south of mayflower
cycling up again before vilonia...


RT @WhistlePig11 We've got major damage in Mayflower, AR
Vilonia needs to be taking shelter now.

This thing is absolutely insane.

Looks a lot like the Hattiesburg damage from last year. EF4, maybe?

Quoting 1495. Ameister12:


Terrible, yet not surprising. I can only hope everybody got enough warning.
1507. sar2401
Those guys on the Brett Adair feed need to turn around and get the heck out of there before it gets dark. This just isn't worth it for some video. Didn't these guys learn anything from Moore?
1508. ncstorm
4,110 (2012)
Vilonia, Population
Looks like David Drummond might have position on it next - he's ESE of Vilonia.
http://www.katv.com/category/273536/live-stream-new scasts

good link for news broadcast
1511. sar2401
Source: AMATEUR RADIO
Remark: ARKANSAS GAME AND FISH HEADQUARTERS EAST OF MAYFLOWER HAS BEEN HEAVILY DAMAGED.
1512. ncstorm
all those people stuck in traffic with no shelter..that aint good either
1513. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 752 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
Vilonia is going to be hit directly.
That's one wide debris ball...seems to be getting wider. prob a 1mile wide wedge
terrifying

That looks really bad for Vilonia..
1518. sar2401
C'mon, boy, get the heck out of the way and let the first responders do their jobs. The time for chasing is over. Go home!


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AR...WRN TN...SERN MO...FAR SRN
IL...FAR WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 280029Z - 280200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION OVER CNTRL/NRN AR WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING ENEWD TO THE NE OF A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS CNTRL AR. HOWEVER...2-HRLY PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2-3 MB NE OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE AN ISALLOBARIC WIND TO PROMOTE ITS NEWD
ADVANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E -- E.G. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S -- TO EXTEND NEWD TO THE
MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR SVR
HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. LONG/CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AMIDST STRONG
DEEP-SHEAR PER VWP DATA WILL SUGGEST A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST.

..COHEN/HART.. 04/28/2014


ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36829097 37279014 36978891 35368883 34988971 35199093
36829097
Doesn't look like Vilonia got lucky. Debris ball still there, and the couplet is still extremely tight and intense.
1521. vital1
David Drummond seems to be very close to where it will cross. These guys are nuts!
swept right through vilonia
It ripped through Vilonia, heading towards El Paso now...Moving very fast and looks to be a long track Tornado, Multi-Vortex...probably 3/4 mile to 1mile wide...wont die down any time soon. 

Quoting 1517. Skyepony:

That looks really bad for Vilonia..



they got hit bad in 2011 too...
Vilonia just took a direct hit from this violent tornado. Debris ball up to 70 dBZ on reflectivity. El Paso up next, hope everyone is taking cover.
Amazing to see this already up on wikipedia re: Vilonia...

April 2011 tornado

A small portion of the town was destroyed in a tornado on the evening of April 25, 2011. The devastated area was a mobile home park. The tornado was confirmed by National Weather Service survey crews, who has rated the tornado a high end EF2. Four people were killed in town as a result of the twister.[4][5]
April 2014 tornado

A small portion of the town was destroyed in a tornado on the evening of April 27, 2014. The devastated area was a mobile home park. The tornado was confirmed by National Weather Service survey crews, who has rated the tornado a high end EF?. ? people were killed in town as a result of the twister.
1527. sar2401
Great! Now they're getting in line with all the other cars so the road can get blocked up real good. Just leave...
david drummonds stream is dark and frightening
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
756 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR EL PASO AND FLOYD...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN WHITE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CLEBURNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 752 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH REPORTS OF
DAMAGE. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF VILONIA...OR
13 MILES NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK AFB. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE
STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR EL PASO AND FLOYD. TAKE COVER NOW.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
SEARCY... VILONIA... GRAVEL HILL...
CROSBY... SIDON... ROMANCE...
OTTO... LETONA... JOY...
FLOYD... EL PASO... CENTER HILL...
ARMSTRONG SPRINGS... ALBION...
Reports coming in that "Vilonia is gone...just gone" 


Another devastating photo out of Mayflower, AR via @WhistlePig11
I can't even watch this anymore. it's black...he's in a terrible place.

Quoting 1528. GeorgiaStormz:

david drummonds stream is dark and frightening
Any one have an idea of how fast this thing is moving??? It has got to be at least 5 miles per scan
Hey guys today (my birthday) was ok I hope today did not live up to its name for storms and tornados though
Quoting 1526. BahaHurican:

Amazing to see this already up on wikipedia re: Vilonia...

April 2011 tornado

A small portion of the town was destroyed in a tornado on the evening of April 25, 2011. The devastated area was a mobile home park. The tornado was confirmed by National Weather Service survey crews, who has rated the tornado a high end EF2. Four people were killed in town as a result of the twister.[4][5]
April 2014 tornado

A small portion of the town was destroyed in a tornado on the evening of April 27, 2014. The devastated area was a mobile home park. The tornado was confirmed by National Weather Service survey crews, who has rated the tornado a high end EF?. ? people were killed in town as a result of the twister.


...which is incredibly silly. We know nothing other than anecdotes but some people would rather jump to get something up and be first, I guess. And obviously we know that there has been nothing with survey crews yet on this one.
1536. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 757 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
TORNADO WARNING     LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 756 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
A chaser got too close.

1538. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A chaser got too close.


Who is that? Where did it happen?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys today (my birthday) was ok I hope today did not live up to its name for storms and tornados though


Depends on how many storms you need. The high risk hasn't had anything...however we currently have a long-track wedge on the ground destroying everything in its path.

Happy B-day by the way.
Storm is moving at about 40-45 miles per hour, has hit Mayflower, Vidonia, just plowred through El Paso...has been on the ground for over an hour now...could be on the ground for another 20 minutes if it regenerates a bit more...still a powerful tornado
The tornado has probably been on the ground for nearly 40 miles.
Please pray for my friend who has family in El Paso, AR
1543. sar2401
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Any one have an idea of how fast this thing is moving??? It has got to be at least 5 miles per scan

NE at 50 mph....that's one reason these chasers are going to get caught. Man...get out of there now.
1544. sar2401
Quoting AllyBama:
Please pray for my friend who has family in El Paso, AR

Will do, Ally. I hope they are OK.

Quoting 1543. sar2401:


NE at 50 mph....that's one reason these chasers are going to get caught. Man...get out of there now.
The storm is in a weakening phase...will be interesting to see if it rewraps but...
I'm pretty sure it's cycled and may be producing a new tornado.
1547. ncstorm
its dark now so this is going to be a hellish night for many people
Chasing after dark is suicidal. I don't know why people are even still trying.

Quoting 1543. sar2401:


NE at 50 mph....that's one reason these chasers are going to get caught. Man...get out of there now.
1549. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys today (my birthday) was ok I hope today did not live up to its name for storms and tornados though

Happy birthday. Unfortunately, this is a really bad tornado you just walked into. Multiple dead and injured I'm sure...
1550. Patrap
From Thomas Hudson

"as many ambulances as we can" requested for I-40
1551. sar2401
Quoting Ameister12:
I'm pretty sure it's cycled and may be producing a new tornado.

Sirens are going off again and those guys are just sitting, there, parked...dopes.
Reports coming in via scanners of entire neighborhoods gone with numerous entrapments in Mayflower.
1553. KalainH
Quoting 1538. sar2401:


Who is that? Where did it happen?


Hail's Angels Storm Chasing Team in Mayflower, AR
Arkansas State police reporting 1 fatality in Mayflower
Quoting Patrap:
From Thomas Hudson

"as many ambulances as we can" requested for I-40


The interstate took a direct hit. Mayflower is on one side and Vilonia is 10 miles away on the other side. There's gonna be fatalities, but I don't want to get too ahead of anything.
I-40 shut down in both directions south of Mayflower, AR
1557. Patrap
From Thomas Hudson

Hail's Angels storm chaser vic got hit

What else can we expect tonight? Will we see any more storms develop in the High Risk area in southern Arkansas?

New Day 1 Outlook:
1559. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 813 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 810 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 807 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 805 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 757 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
TORNADO WARNING     LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 756 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
1560. sar2401
Quoting Doppler22:
I-40 shut down in both directions south of Mayflower, AR

Now the boys are out doing "search and rescue"....please...just get out there and let people who have some training work.
1561. KalainH
1 person confirmed dead in Mayflower, AK

- Via KATVNews


NEW: 7:50pm pic from the @WeatherBug camera at Vilonia HS shows an apparent tornado on the right side of image.
@WeatherBug
1563. Patrap
TORNADO 0103
– Valid until: 04/28/2014 0700Z
– States affected: AR MO TN
– Issued: 20 minutes ago
TORNADO 0102
– Valid until: 04/28/2014 0700Z
– States affected: AR KS MO OK
– Issued: 04/27/2014 at 2330Z
TORNADO 0100
– Valid until: 04/28/2014 0400Z
– States affected: AR OK
– Particularly Dangerous Situation
– Issued: 04/27/2014 at 2035Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0098
– Valid until: 04/28/2014 0200Z
– States affected: IA IL MO
– Issued: 04/27/2014 at 1915Z
TORNADO 0097
– Valid until: 04/28/2014 0200Z
– States affected: AR LA OK TX
– Issued: 04/27/2014 at 1850Z
Quoting 1558. Ameister12:

What else can we expect tonight? Will we see any more storms develop in the High Risk area in southern Arkansas?

New Day 1 Outlook:


There is a storm in texas entering southern Arkansas.... may do something
1565. hydrus
Quoting 1557. Patrap:

From Thomas Hudson

Hail's Angels storm chaser vic got hit


And here is just the beginning of all this crap.
1566. sar2401
Quoting KalainH:


Hail's Angels Storm Chasing Team in Mayflower, AR

Hail's Angels...looks like they were lucky not to live up to the name...cripes, all this for some video.
Quoting sar2401:

Now the boys are out doing "search and rescue"....please...just get out there and let people who have some training work.


I would think the EMTs would appreciate all the help they can get, sar. Wouldn't be the first time chasers are the first persons on scene to help the wounded and search for entrapments...won't be the last.
1568. Patrap


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97...

VALID 280109Z - 280215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 97 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 97 COVERING PARTS OF NERN
TX...NRN LA...AND SRN AR MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME BEYOND ITS
SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION TIME.

DISCUSSION...AN ONGOING SUPERCELL STORM IN FAR NERN TX WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE EWD...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM 00Z SHV RAOB INDICATING MLCAPE
AROUND 2200 J/KG AND AROUND 45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SEVERE RISK...WHILE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
AND ASSOCIATED FORCED-ASCENT-INDUCED MID-LEVEL COOLING POTENTIALLY
OFFSET THE GROWTH OF SUBSTANTIAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
THIS ASCENT MAY ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL YIELD A
TORNADO RISK AS WELL...AND THESE FACTORS MAY WARRANT LOCAL EXTENSION
OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN TIME FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD.

..COHEN.. 04/28/2014


ATTN...WFO...SHV...

LAT...LON 32539445 32729504 33329495 33459406 33229231 32709223
32569283 32539445
Debris ball back
Storm just underwent a classic cycle. Rotation weakened, tornado either weakened or lifted completely, but it's right back going strong again now.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
9:00 AM JST April 28 2014
============================

Near The Marianas Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Tapah (1002 hPa) located at 11.6N 146.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 13.4N 146.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
48 HRS 15.4N 144.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
72 HRS 17.8N 142.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
Today's event reminds of the rule with hurricane season, its not about the numbers, but how strong the ones that do develop get. We may have had a strong cap today, but the severe parameters were dangerous, sadly you usually don't see a severe event that looks this good without strong tornadoes that produce injuries and fatalities. The tornadoes may not be widespread, but a few severe tornadoes is exceedingly worse than 30 to 40 weak ones.

Also, additional upper energy is approaching this evening, the loss of heating may prevent some degree of severity, but the LLJ often strengthens after dark over the southern plains, and places retain there heat after dark when the air is moist, so there is still a loft of surface based instability to work with. Thunderstorms are already beginning to fire in eastern OK ahead of the next vort max.
Debris ball might be back, but It appears to be cycling again. There are 2 areas of rotation.
Very potent cycle on this storm, wrapped back on itself very quickly...wow.  This storm is going for 2 hours on the ground...
Quoting 1550. Patrap:

From Thomas Hudson

"as many ambulances as we can" requested for I-40

Surprised that they didn't close the interstate with all of the lead time we had.
1576. ncstorm
1-40 shut down in Arkansas..per Mike Siedel
Scanner Feed (near Mayflower): "Cars flipped... mobile homes trashed... bodies everywhere."

...

Quoting 1566. sar2401:


Hail's Angels...looks like they were lucky not to live up to the name...cripes, all this for some video.
As long as they get re-posted or re-tweeted or re-gurgitated in media, including here, these chasers will continue to go for the gold.


Quoting 1575. ScottLincoln:


Surprised that they didn't close the interstate with all of the lead time we had.


I agree, one of the most dangerous places to be is to be caught in a car.
1581. ncstorm
Don Murray- SDS/WXScope has it on video..telling people to evacuate now..
Quoting 1572. Jedkins01:

Today's event reminds of the rule with hurricane season, its not about the numbers, but how strong the ones that do develop get. We may have had a strong cap today, but the severe parameters were dangerous, sadly you usually don't see a severe event that looks this good without strong tornadoes that produce injuries and fatalities. The tornadoes may not be widespread, but a few severe tornadoes is exceedingly worse than 30 to 40 weak ones.

Even with an El Nino, all you need as one. That would kinda be the rule to remind people for a slight risk and a moderate risk, too. The outlooks are mostly about density of reports, not so much the intensity.
Apparently a picture of the tornado as it was near Mayflower.
1584. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
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TORNADO WARNING     SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 825 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
Potentially cycling again.
Quoting 1534. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys today (my birthday) was ok I hope today did not live up to its name for storms and tornados though


Hey, Happy Birthday.......

Homes gone. RT @ForbiddenH: Tornado damage in River Planation neighborhood in Mayflower, #arwx

Scared to see pictures from Vilonia
Quoting 1561. KalainH:

1 person confirmed dead in Mayflower, AK

- Via KATVNews


Didn't know Alaska had a town by the name of Mayflower?



Horizontal vortex in the first image suggests violent tornado.
Rain-wrapped tornado could be with this line.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
825 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 822 PM CDT...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
THAT MAY NOT BE VISIBLE DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF MORRISVILLE TO 11 MILES WEST OF
MORRISVILLE TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORRISVILLE...AND MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALDRICH...BOLIVAR...BRIGHTON...EUDORA...MORRISVILL E AND PLEASANT
HOPE.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES STOCKTON LAKE.
1591. sar2401
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Surprised that they didn't close the interstate with all of the lead time we had.

You can't. You transform a moving stream to sitting ducks. Without knowing exactly where the tornado would be and how much damage there would be on the interstate, you just have to let it run and deal with the aftermath.
NWS employee on TWC just showed a model depicting more supercells developing and entering the high risk area by midnight. He said "It's not over yet."
1593. Patrap

Tornado that hit Mayflower touching down


looks to be cycling again
1595. Dakster
Quoting 1567. Astrometeor:



I would think the EMTs would appreciate all the help they can get, sar. Wouldn't be the first time chasers are the first persons on scene to help the wounded and search for entrapments...won't be the last.


Sorta. I'm sure SAR can relate to this. They can also be a part of the problem and need rescuing themselves which takes people away from rescuing others. Double edged sword.
Quoting 1592. Ameister12:

NWS employee on TWC just showed a model depicting more supercells developing and entering the high risk area by midnight. He said "It's not over yet."

Yeah, he had the HRRR up, it's showing quite a bit more action later tonight, though it may come more in the form of a line or line segments.
1598. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:


Sorta. I'm sure SAR can relate to this. They can also be a part of the problem and need rescuing themselves which takes people away from rescuing others. Double edged sword.

Indeed. The last thing we needed around was people with no equipment and no training trying to "help". Let the locals handle it and get out of the way. You got your video, go home.
Quoting 1591. sar2401:


You can't. You transform a moving stream to sitting ducks. Without knowing exactly where the tornado would be and how much damage there would be on the interstate, you just have to let it run and deal with the aftermath.

Yes you can. And many places do.

That's not to say that it doesn't come without risk and doesn't require lots of thinking, but yes it can be done.
Quoting Dakster:


Sorta. I'm sure SAR can relate to this. They can also be a part of the problem and need rescuing themselves which takes people away from rescuing others. Double edged sword.


I understand that. If one was really good, you could have a central station and direct the extra hands to do certain tasks. But, right now, at this point I would assume everything will be slowly calming down from a fever pitch of intense searching and absorbing the disaster situation at hand.
from the line in OK?

Quoting 1592. Ameister12:

NWS employee on TWC just showed a model depicting more supercells developing and entering the high risk area by midnight. He said "It's not over yet."
1602. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


I would think the EMTs would appreciate all the help they can get, sar. Wouldn't be the first time chasers are the first persons on scene to help the wounded and search for entrapments...won't be the last.

They weren't the first people on scene. There were lots of people there doing rescues before they showed up. They were dressed in shorts, t-shirts, and sneakers. That's not the gear you need to attempt rescues in collapsed structures. In addition, none of the locals know who they are, and they don't know the locals. It's dark. That means they are potential looters. Time to leave before something bad happens.
1603. wxmod
This is a MODIS satellite image of polluted air from China making landfall, after crossing the Pacific in 2 days, in our beautiful Redwood National Park.

Quoting 1601. evilpenguinshan:

from the line in OK?



The model showed storms developing in Eastern Texas moving into southern Arkansas, but MA is right, It does look more linear than discrete.
1605. Patrap
Sherry Leece: Mass casualty situation in Vilonia. 12 ambulances needed at the fire station.
1606. hydrus
Quoting 1580. Jedkins01:




I agree, one of the most dangerous places to be is to be caught in a car.
Yep..I saw a v-8 engine block stuck in a steel reinforced concrete wall once....
Tornado has been on the ground for 2 hours now. 
Quoting sar2401:

They weren't the first people on scene. There were lots of people there doing rescues before they showed up. They were dressed in shorts, t-shirts, and sneakers. That's not the gear you need to attempt rescues in collapsed structures. In addition, none of the locals know who they are, and they don't know the locals. It's dark. That means they are potential looters. Time to leave before something bad happens.


I'm going to stop arguing with you sar. We're on different sides. I understand your concerns, but I've had different experiences that what you've had, despite my young age.
1609. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 838 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
TORNADO WARNING     SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 825 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
1610. hydrus
Quoting 1602. sar2401:


They weren't the first people on scene. There were lots of people there doing rescues before they showed up. They were dressed in shorts, t-shirts, and sneakers. That's not the gear you need to attempt rescues in collapsed structures. In addition, none of the locals know who they are, and they don't know the locals. It's dark. That means they are potential looters. Time to leave before something bad happens.
We had Marshal Law after Andrew...
1611. ncstorm
the chaser videos I watched didnt show any one performing search rescues..it only showed the chasers cars stopping and they saying someone could be trapped in a house..somebody need to go to bed on a real tip..
More damage photos coming out of Mayflower. What a mess.
1613. Patrap
Quoting 1608. Astrometeor:



I'm going to stop arguing with you sar. We're on different sides. I understand your concerns, but I've had different experiences that what you've had, despite my young age.


Is best.

He pontificates worse than a FOX new's character.

It's futile.

You'd think someone with such "superior" knowledge would be teaching others instead of being, well,"all that".
IF and that is a great big if, I ever "decided" to chase tornadoes!!! I don't think I'd want to be doing it in Arkansas... seems there are a lot of trees there...


RT @AshleyB9370: @KATV_Weather Just south of the Vilonia bypass. Re-built after last tornado there.
1616. ncstorm
Quoting 1614. BahaHurican:

IF and that is a great big if, I ever "decided" to chase tornadoes!!! I don't think I'd want to be doing it in Arkansas... seems there are a lot of trees there...


one of the WU bloggers that chases said that was one of the reasons he wasnt trying to join in this time..hills and trees..
1618. sar2401
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Yes you can. And many places do.

That's not to say that it doesn't come without risk and doesn't require lots of thinking, but yes it can be done.

You ever done it, Scott? Just like I have no clue on how to run a weather model, you have no clue about traffic control in front of an impending disaster.
1619. hydrus

Little Rock, AR (KLZK) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)
This sucker's probably still producing a strong tornado.
Quoting 1602. sar2401:


They weren't the first people on scene. There were lots of people there doing rescues before they showed up. They were dressed in shorts, t-shirts, and sneakers. That's not the gear you need to attempt rescues in collapsed structures. In addition, none of the locals know who they are, and they don't know the locals. It's dark. That means they are potential looters. Time to leave before something bad happens.


I agree Sar I was give a Green Vest that ID's me as a First Responder. Also that's the very Reason why I "Do Not" go with out My First Aid Bag.... I call it a Bag but it's a small suit case that I filled with everything I thought I could use to save as many lives as I can....
Quoting 1614. BahaHurican:

IF and that is a great big if, I ever "decided" to chase tornadoes!!! I don't think I'd want to be doing it in Arkansas... seems there are a lot of trees there...


I agree, it would be in the Plains somewhere.
Quoting 1620. Ameister12:

This sucker's probably still producing a strong tornado.


its been like 100 miles...
though it might not be just 1 tornado
1624. ncstorm
Astro..TWC just showed a video with police, EMT and civilians in mayflower helping people out of rubble together..I guess they didnt get the memo
TWC Breaking @TWCBreaking

BREAKING: "Mass casualty situation" in Vilonia, AR after a #tornado ripped thru town around 7:50pm CDT; at least 12 ambulances requested.
The Tornado restrengthened and is showing Extreme Rotation AGAIN (After near 2 hours of being on ground)...

Been trying to figure out what we are going to name this Tornado, since it has done massive damage to multiple towns...

2014 Arkansas Long Track Tornado? 
Denmark [White Co, AR] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 07:50 PM CDT -- state police are reporting a tornado at denmark.
@JimCantore
Quoting 1614. BahaHurican:

IF and that is a great big if, I ever "decided" to chase tornadoes!!! I don't think I'd want to be doing it in Arkansas... seems there are a lot of trees there...

And not a lot of road options. And quite a bit of terrain to block your view.
I found Missouri difficult enough, and it really didnt have small mountains in northern MO.
1629. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


I'm going to stop arguing with you sar. We're on different sides. I understand your concerns, but I've had different experiences that what you've had, despite my young age.

I'm not trying to argue with you. If you show up on a scene and you don't see red and blue lights, do what you can to help. If there are lots of red and blue lights, they can handle it unless they stop you and ask you to help. It's a good thing to want to help but, in this kind of situation, minutes after bad tornado went through town, with emotions running high, you can end up in jail...or worse.
1630. wxmod
This is a MODIS satellite image of world Carbon Monoxide today. Red is worse.

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THIDA AND OIL TROUGH...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL WHITE...WEST
CENTRAL JACKSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDEPENDENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
CDT...

AT 845 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH REPORTS OF
DAMAGE. THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF STEPROCK...OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF SEARCY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THIDA AND OIL TROUGH. TAKE COVER
NOW.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
PLEASANT PLAINS... OIL TROUGH... NEWARK...
VELVET RIDGE... THIDA... ROOSEVELT...
POSSUM GRAPE... OLYPHANT... MACKS...
HEFFINGTON... GRAY... DENMARK...
1636. ncstorm
Quoting 1632. Ameister12:

Aftermath video on I-40 east of Conway, AR. The Video is disturbing to say the least.


Prayers..Prayers..Prayers going to those people!!!
Earlier form Baxter Springs, KS. Severe damage with the tornado in the background.
Its not even Monday yet...think about that for a moment. 

Tomorrow is going to be much more active :(
Quoting 1632. Ameister12:

Aftermath video on I-40 east of Conway, AR. The video is disturbing to say the least.

Wow... that's the video that the Fox station has been showing, but I think they only have been showing part of it. I think I know why. That's pretty awful. I guess in the dark the tornado may have become difficult to see for motorists.


tomorrow morning
1641. Patrap
TORNADO 0103
– Valid until: 04/28/2014 0700Z
– States affected: AR MO TN
– Issued: 04/28/2014 at 0055Z
TORNADO 0102
– Valid until: 04/28/2014 0700Z
– States affected: AR KS MO OK
– Issued: 04/27/2014 at 2330Z
TORNADO 0100
– Valid until: 04/28/2014 0400Z
– States affected: AR OK
– Particularly Dangerous Situation
– Issued: 04/27/2014 at 2035Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0098
– Valid until: 04/28/2014 0200Z
– States affected: IA IL MO
– Issued: 04/27/2014 at 1915Z
TORNADO 0097
– Valid until: 04/28/2014 0200Z
– States affected: AR LA OK TX
– Issued: 04/27/2014 at 1850Z
The Long Tracker seems to have finally spent its available energy and is dying.
1643. flsky
Go help, or send money. Prayers are useless at this point. Sheesh
Quoting 1636. ncstorm:



Prayers..Prayers..Prayers going to those people!!!
Weather Channel estimates that rotation has been happening for 90 miles
1645. hydrus
Quoting 1639. ScottLincoln:


Wow... that's the video that the Fox station has been showing, but I think they only have been showing part of it. I think I know why. That's pretty awful. I guess in the dark the tornado may have become difficult to see for motorists.
It looked people trapped in there wrecked cars and trucks.
1646. sar2401
That's a good point. If you want to help, take first responder training and have your equipment with you. Look like someone who's supposed to be there rather than a guy who wandered in off the interstate to see if there was anything good laying around he can tote off. Otherwise, just get your video and leave. You might save yourself a whole lot of grief if you do.
Quoting 1643. flsky:

Go help, or send money. Prayers are useless at this point. Sheesh



flsky, you are a good person but prayers are never useless. Never, ever.

Chilling. #ARwx RT @mlwdgrl1975: Tornado in Vilonia
Quoting 1647. AllyBama:



flsky, you are a good person but prayers are never useless. Never, ever.


agreed...
Quoting 1632. Ameister12:

Aftermath video on I-40 east of Conway, AR. The video is disturbing to say the least.
Yikes.... Somehow I think today's death toll will rise.... :o(
AllyBama, any word yet from your friend's family? I hope they're all okay!
1652. help4u
Prayers are never useless.
Quoting 1643. flsky:

Go help, or send money. Prayers are useless at this point. Sheesh

Disagree. What should those of us who can neither go nor send money do???

Easy do say don't pray, but not accurate to say they are useless.
1655. sar2401
Quoting Ameister12:
Aftermath video on I-40 east of Conway, AR. The video is disturbing to say the least.

Now THAT'S a situation where you need to stop with the video, get out, and do whatever you can to help. There was obviously no law enforcement or first responders on scene yet, and that's when the injured really need help. I'm not going to denigrate the guys who took the video. Some people just aren't equipped to deal with something like this but, if you are, or think you are, do something.
1656. wxmod
Pacific NW MODIS this evening.

Quoting 1645. hydrus:

It looked people trapped in there wrecked cars and trucks.

From what the news reports have been saying, that sounds plausible. They closed the interstate (post tornado) and were sending in all sorts of emergency crews. The reporter on the scene seemed to imply that it was to get people out of vehicles.
Quoting 1629. sar2401:


I'm not trying to argue with you. If you show up on a scene and you don't see red and blue lights, do what you can to help. If there are lots of red and blue lights, they can handle it unless they stop you and ask you to help. It's a good thing to want to help but, in this kind of situation, minutes after bad tornado went through town, with emotions running high, you can end up in jail...or worse.

Sar is right. Some states have good samaritan laws, some don't. But those laws don't apply to bystanders if they have any pertinent training, such as not-on-the-clock EMS, firefighters, nurses, or doctors. If someone gets sue-crazy, you could lose not just your shirt, but your career. Its the "right" thing to do to help others, yes. But you have to bear in mind that many people take advantage of these kind of situations for "a quick buck" (sadly)
1659. hydrus
Quoting 1653. BahaHurican:

Disagree. What should those of us who can neither go nor send money do???

Easy do say don't pray, but not accurate to say they are useless.
Yep..Prayers are a good thing now..For people trapped, injured, and families of the ones that wont or didnt make it.
I am reading comments about whether one should stop to help or not. I truly understand both sides of this debate. As for myself, I will help. I could not live with myself knowing that someone may have died simply because I didn't stop to try and help...and don't let me find out that someone didn't stop to help one of my children or grandchildren and just simply drove on by..not good! I was first up behind a wreck once and my daughter and I both jumped out to help...thinking what were we going to do besides call 911 - lo and behold the next car on the scene was a nurse and her husband. God does take care of us just long as we follow his lead and that is to help others.
1661. sar2401
Quoting AllyBama:


flsky, you are a good person but prayers are never useless. Never, ever.

For those that believe in prayer, it certainly can't hurt, along with whatever else you can do to help out. How is your friend's family, Ally? Unfortunately, all this is headed our way. :-(
1662. ncstorm
209 (2012)
Jacksonport, Population
fox16 still getting confirmed reports of a tornado on the ground near jacksonport, ar...
Quoting 1651. Ameister12:

AllyBama, any word yet from your friend's family? I hope they're all okay!


Thanks for asking. So far her family in El Paso is fine as are those in Conway. They were in a storm
shelter with no lights but were safe.
Quoting 1660. AllyBama:

I am reading comments about whether one should stop to help or not. I truly understand both sides of this debate. As for myself, I will help. I could not live with myself knowing that someone may have died simply because I didn't stop to try and help...and don't let me find out that someone didn't stop to help one of my children or grandchildren and just simply drove on by..not good! I was first up behind a wreck once and my daughter and I both jumped out to help...thinking what were we going to do besides call 911 - lo and behold the next car on the scene was a nurse and her husband. God does take care of us just long as we follow his lead and that is to help others.


I was riding in a car, and there was a wreck where 4 people died that had happened like 2 minutes before i got there. I stopped and went to help... but there was nothing we could do.
Hey Ally, glad to hear family is ok. Just talked to dad in Pulaski County, Arkansas - he says it has been horrible, but he's ok. Geez, two more days of this!
Quoting 1664. AllyBama:



Thanks for asking. So far her family in El Paso is fine as are those in Conway. They were in a storm
shelter with no lights but were safe.
1667. Grothar
Still a lot of energy left

1668. sar2401
Oh man...that tornado is still on the ground and going through Jacksonport now, northeast of Searcy now. Reports from spotters and law enforcement have it still on the ground and still huge. Good heavens...
Quoting 1661. sar2401:


For those that believe in prayer, it certainly can't hurt, along with whatever else you can do to help out. How is your friend's family, Ally? Unfortunately, all this is headed our way. :-(


sar, they are all o.k. some in storm shelters but o.k. just going to be a long night for them. Yep looks like you and I will get our turn.. seems odd to have such high tornado odds for the coast but with Mobile having had a few tornadoes in the last year or so, I shouldn't be surprised.
new tornado warning on the cell behind the longtracker:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
919 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN INDEPENDENCE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN CLEBURNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 916 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF CONCORD...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST
OF HEBER SPRINGS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
BATESVILLE... SALADO... MOOREFIELD...
CONCORD... WILBURN... SULPHUR ROCK...
PFEIFFER... LOCUST GROVE... JAMES...
IDA... HUTCHINSON... HUFF...
DESHA... BETHESDA... ALMOND...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

1671. flsky
I stand by what I said. Anyone can send $5. There are too many other important things happening tonight to continue a religious argument.
Quoting 1653. BahaHurican:

Disagree. What should those of us who can neither go nor send money do???

Easy do say don't pray, but not accurate to say they are useless.
This damage has got to be at least EF 4...It's definitely a stronger tornado than any other we've gotten this year.
Quoting 1668. sar2401:

Oh man...that tornado is still on the ground and going through Jacksonport now, northeast of Searcy now. Reports from spotters and law enforcement have it still on the ground and still huge. Good heavens...


it's been at least 2 hours...
At 9:05pm CDT a #tornado was reported near Macks, AR (tornado symbol) - just W of Newport. Moving NE 40 mph.
tornado still on the ground in tuckerman, ar....wow...
1676. ncstorm
If I just heard correctly on TWC..Dr. Forbes just went up for a 5 for NC for Tuesday..
1677. ncstorm
Gas line break in Mayflower..per FOX16
1678. HrDelta
Quoting 1668. sar2401:

Oh man...that tornado is still on the ground and going through Jacksonport now, northeast of Searcy now. Reports from spotters and law enforcement have it still on the ground and still huge. Good heavens...


Geez, how is that thing still going?
@spann: NWS Little Rock: Two houses on Cemetery Road have been wiped clean to the foundation in Vilonia, AR #arwx
The guy in the video stated on his Facebook that he sent the people he was driving by his prayers...yeah that seemed to be doing them a lot of good.

Though actually being there is different, no doubt.
Quoting 1673. nwobilderburg:



it's been at least 2 hours...

is that tornado STILL ob the ground!?
1682. Grothar
If I am buried in a pile of rubble, I personally don't care if the guy is wearing just sneakers and the woman is wearing a nothing but Chanel #5. I would be grateful.
Quoting 1680. wxgeek723:

The guy in the video stated on his Facebook that he sent the people he was driving by his prayers...yeah that seemed to be doing them a lot of good.

Hey. Stop. Do not turn this into a religious debate on here. There are still lives in danger and we do not need to be bickering about something that tons of people do because it is their belief.
1684. ncstorm
779 (2012)
Swifton, Population
Quoting 1666. Beachfoxx:

Hey Ally, glad to hear family is ok. Just talked to dad in Pulaski County, Arkansas - he says it has been horrible, but he's ok. Geez, two more days of this!


So glad to hear this news! Praying that he has a safe night too!
Quoting 1681. TheGreatHodag:


is that tornado STILL ob the ground!?


may have cycled...but same cell...
Two homes swept completely clean on Cemetery Rd. in Vilonia via scanner. Responder said nothing left on foundation with debris swept downwind.

Need to determine the structure of the homes, but if they're well built, it's likely EF5 type damage.
Quoting 1681. TheGreatHodag:


is that tornado STILL ob the ground!?

There has been rotation within the cell for 2 and a half hours. Greg Forbes confirmed that much. Tornado for that long? Possibly.
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SWIFTON...
heads up Batesville, AR
Here is the link for James Spann. He is not on right now but he start-up his live feed as soon as it is necessary. Many schools in Central Alabama and northward are dismissing school early tomorrow - hopefully in advance of the weather.
http://www.abc3340.com/category/220454/james-span n-24-7-weather
Another sad thing I'm noticing tonight is the usage of tornado emergency. Although great in theory, it's starting to slide into use almost as a tornado warning for confirmed tornadoes. Although that isn't really the intent of NWS forecasters, that's what is starting to happen. Regular tornado warnings used to be mostly reserved for confirmed tornadoes, and over time it has evolved. Now we have newscasters discussing the tornado emergency to mean "when this is issued it means there is confirmation of a tornado on the ground." No, that's really not what it is supposed to mean. And now we wonder, will people who hear that treat a regular tornado warning the same way? I honestly am not sure.
Quoting 1688. JrWeathermanFL:


There has been rotation within the cell for 2 and a half hors. Greg Forbes confirmed that much. Tornado? Possibly.


police confirmed something on the ground
Here we go again!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
928 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

ARC063-067-280245-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-140428T0245Z/
INDEPENDENCE AR-JACKSON AR-
928 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SWIFTON...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND
EAST CENTRAL INDEPENDENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 926 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO WITH REPORTS OF
DAMAGE.
THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF TUCKERMAN...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF NEWPORT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SWIFTON. TAKE COVER NOW.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
TUCKERMAN... SWIFTON... KENYON...
ELGIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A DAMAGING TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. THIS IS AN
EXCEPTIONALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING A LIFE
THREATENING...CONFIRMED TORNADO CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT DESTRUCTION.
TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3575 9103 3565 9133 3577 9140 3589 9124
3589 9103 3588 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 234DEG 36KT 3577 9123

$$
1695. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:
If I am buried in a pile of rubble, I personally don't care if the guy is wearing just sneakers and the woman is wearing a nothing but Chanel #5. I would be grateful.

And if they were the only other people there, I'd want them to help also. If there were other people there more qualified, not so much. Thus my point.
Quoting 1687. Ameister12:

Two homes swept completely clean on Cemetery Rd. in Vilonia via scanner. Responder said nothing left on foundation with debris swept downwind.

Need to determine the structure of the homes, but if they're well built, it's likely EF5 type damage.

And that's the big if. And also after tornadoes it can be difficult to adequately describe what the building used to be. It may not have been a residence at all. Time will tell as the long and somewhat difficult survey process begins for NWS Little Rock.
Quoting 1632. Ameister12:

Aftermath video on I-40 east of Conway, AR. The video is disturbing to say the least.


That video is so upsetting. It brings tears to my eyes.
Quoting 1682. Grothar:

If I am buried in a pile of rubble, I personally don't care if the guy is wearing just sneakers and the woman is wearing a nothing but Chanel #5. I would be grateful.


Well, for some good news, WKC let us know today is his birthday. :(
Prayers going out to these people tonight. I cant imagine what hell they're going through...
Quoting ScottLincoln:
Another sad thing I'm noticing tonight is the usage of tornado emergency. Although great in theory, it's starting to slide into use almost as a tornado warning for confirmed tornadoes. Although that isn't really the intent of NWS forecasters, that's what is starting to happen. Regular tornado warnings used to be mostly reserved for confirmed tornadoes, and over time it has evolved. Now we have newscasters discussing the tornado emergency to mean "when this is issued it means there is confirmation of a tornado on the ground." No, that's really not what it is supposed to mean. And now we wonder, will people who hear that treat a regular tornado warning the same way? I honestly am not sure.


Agreed. That is discerning. If people come to know a "tornado emergency" as a confirmed tornado, that lessens the effect of a tornado warning in folks' minds and makes them less reactive to those warnings.
Latest Day 1 outlook. High risk is gone.
1702. ncstorm
Gro,

würde ich immer helfen, ein Trottel aus :)
1703. flsky
The person taking the video is only getting in the way.

Quoting 1697. Tampagal:



That video is so upsetting. It brings tears to my eyes.
Jonesboro, AR Tv Station Link
Live Weather Coverage.

It'll move that way later if anyone is watching coverage - but to warn you - the guys there seem a little... slow.

http://www.kait8.com/story/20194883/region-8-news -live-online
Quoting 1695. sar2401:


And if they were the only other people there, I'd want them to help also. If there were other people there more qualified, not so much. Thus my point.

If I am in that situation I will take all the help I can get. And right now, there are alot of people in that situation and I really doubt they are asking who is the most qualified before they get pulled out of the rubble. In that moment, you just want out.
1706. vital1
I'm dreading tomorrow in Central Mississippi. I work in disaster preparedness and response and this is making for a sleepless night. UGH!
1707. flsky
Ja
Quoting 1702. ncstorm:

Gro,

würde ich immer helfen, ein Trottel aus :)
1708. Grothar
This was when it was passing south of Vilonia earlier. Awfully big system.

1709. flsky
Get as much rest as you can

Quoting 1706. vital1:

I'm dreading tomorrow in Central Mississippi. I work in disaster preparedness and response and this is making for a sleepless night. UGH!
1710. Grothar
For Monday

Quoting 1700. Astrometeor:



Agreed. That is discerning. If people come to know a "tornado emergency" as a confirmed tornado, that lessens the effect of a tornado warning in folks' minds and makes them less reactive to those warnings.

The rules for tornado emergency seem to be office by office. Some offices reserve it for their big metros only, and only for a confirmed violent tornado. Some offices issue it anytime any large town or small city has a confirmed tornado nearby. Well tornado warning was supposed to be for likely tornado. We may run into issues if we don't standardize the usage.

Of course this isn't meant to say anything in particular about NWS Little Rock. It's more an issue of getting all of the offices on the same page. Once you start using a new term and are not careful with its usage, it's hard to go back.
Quoting 1710. Grothar:

For Monday



oh joy...
1713. Grothar
Quoting 1702. ncstorm:

Gro,

würde ich immer helfen, ein Trottel aus :)


I hope you didn't mean me. :)
1714. Grothar
Quoting 1712. decaturgarden:


oh joy...



This is Tuesday. It hopefully won't be as bad. There shouldn't be as much moisture coming from the Gulf by then.

#BREAKING: Six confirmed dead in Arkansas, per: Faulkner Co. Sheriff's Office: Many homes flattended in Vilonia & Mayflower AR -via @THV11
Apparently, winter has yet to get the message.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
915 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY....

.PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
CLOQUET...DULUTH...ISLAND LAKE...TWO HARBORS...AND SILVER BAY
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING A HALF INCH OF
ICE OR MORE. THE COMBINATION OF ICE...AND STRONG WINDS...WILL
RESULT IN THE THREAT FOR TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL MAY
BECOME HAZARDOUS.

THE THREAT FOR ICE ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE IRON
RANGE CITIES.

MNZ019-020-037-281200-
/O.CON.KDLH.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140428T1900Z/
CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HIBBING...TWO HARBORS...DULUTH...
CLOQUET
915 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CDT MONDAY...

* LOCATION...CROMWELL...CLOQUET...ESKO...PROCTOR...H ERMANTOWN...AND
DULUTH. AS WELL AS AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 61 FROM LAKESIDE TO
SILVER BAY.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* ICE ACCUMULATION...QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF ICE AND STRONG WINDS WILL DAMAGE
TREES AND BRING A THREAT FOR POWER OUTAGES. ROADS...ESPECIALLY
BRIDGES...RAMPS...AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME ICY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. TRAVEL
MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS. PLEASE REFER TO 511MN.ORG FOR THE LATEST
ROAD CONDITIONS.
1717. ncstorm
Goodnight all..

I have to say I am glad to have TWC back on DirecTV..they are doing an excellent job on the severe weather coverage..this is what they are good at..

and for those in the path of these dangerous storms, please heed your local warnings from the NWS/SPC and your local TV meterologists..
*See post 1715*
Here we go again ... Am I the only one paying attention the storm heading toward Newark?
Quoting 1714. Grothar:



This is Tuesday. It hopefully won't be as bad. There shouldn't be as much moisture coming from the Gulf by then.



I hope you are correct sir! I'm all for interesting weather but this year has been a little ridiculous down here!
Quoting Grothar:


This is Tuesday. It hopefully won't be as bad. There shouldn't be as much moisture coming from the Gulf by then.



NWS here seemed iffy on Tuesday, but is warning people not to let down their guard.

Quoting 1717. ncstorm:

Goodnight all..

I have to say I am glad to have TWC back on DirecTV..they are doing an excellent job on the severe weather coverage..this is what they are good at..

and for those in the path of these dangerous storms, please heed your local warnings from the NWS/SPC and your local TV meterologists..

Meanwhile, I checked in with WeatherNation and they're covering temperatures in the Southwest USA.
Quoting 1723. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Meanwhile, I checked in with WeatherNation and they're covering temperatures in the Southwest USA.

Well someone has to stay on top of that during a major tornado outbreak!
Bill Bunting (SPC) says they could go high risk tomorrow, have to see how morning convection turns out
1726. Grothar
Quoting 1720. decaturgarden:


I hope you are correct sir! I'm all for interesting weather but this year has been a little ridiculous down here!


Georgia, i would guess?
Scanner near Vilonia reports of eight possible fatalities near the town.
1728. flsky
It's fascinating reading this blog and watching TWC at the same time. Seems like the blog posts information, then it shows up on TWC.
Quoting 1726. Grothar:



Georgia, i would guess?

Indeed! We are supposed to sneeze our way through Spring not duck and cover!
Quoting 1723. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Meanwhile, I checked in with WeatherNation and they're covering temperatures in the Southwest USA.

I watched a bit of it while the tornado was on the ground. They were so bad! I couldn't be happier to have TWC back.
Shudder to think what daybreak will reveal. Could be scores dead. And probably more tornadoes tomorrow.
Quoting 1727. Ameister12:

Scanner near Vilonia reports of possibly eight fatalities near the town.


news reports so far are saying Mayflower and Vilonia were the hardest hit ..


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR
NORTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 280259Z - 280430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 0400Z.

DISCUSSION...WITH MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUING TO
RESIDE OVER THE AREA -- TO THE E OF A SYNOPTIC STATIONARY BOUNDARY
AND INTERSECTING DRYLINE -- AND WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PIVOTING
THROUGH THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF A DEEP CNTRL-CONUS CYCLONE PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A QLCS FROM NEAR FORT SMITH AR TO
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK MAY BE THE MANIFESTATION OF THE STRONGER DEEP
ASCENT OVERTAKING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR...AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SVR RISK AS IT ENTERS/CROSSES
AR. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY
AND TO ITS S...WHILE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SPREAD NEWD IN THE WAKE OF
A RETREATING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL/NRN AR. MLCAPE AROUND
1000-2000 J/KG AMIDST 45-65 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
PERSISTENT/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A RISK FOR TORNADOES.

..COHEN/HART.. 04/28/2014


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 34979451 35899387 36079223 35389140 33909169 33119264
32969395 33489464 34979451
KATV (abc affiliate) reports 9 fatalities currently.

Quoting 1727. Ameister12:

Scanner near Vilonia reports of eight possible fatalities near the town.
Near Vilonia:
1737. Grothar
Dern t-storms evaporated again. TA said there might be a MCS in the morning though...

Quoting 1723. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Meanwhile, I checked in with WeatherNation and they're covering temperatures in the Southwest USA.

Makes me wonder if they have it set up to only do live coverage for particular markets (they actually appear in many cities on local antenna subchannels).

Either way, events like this provide the good opportunity for them to be a competitor to TWC, and TWC really needed a competitor. Sad to hear that WN may not have done so well in that regard.
Signing off. Everyone have a good night and be safe.
Confirmed tornado on Hwy 17 west of Campell Station.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1001 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CENTRAL DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 1001 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BEECH GROVE...OR 11
MILES WEST OF MARMADUKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PIGGOTT...
RECTOR AND CHALK BLUFF NATURAL AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE GOLFBALL SIZE
HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
Quoting 1737. Grothar:




Stormchasers using drone cameras, now.
Vilonia supercell about to leave AR - still tornado warned w/rotation.

Distance measurement tool says 165 miles as the crow flies.
Quoting 1655. sar2401:


Now THAT'S a situation where you need to stop with the video, get out, and do whatever you can to help. There was obviously no law enforcement or first responders on scene yet, and that's when the injured really need help. I'm not going to denigrate the guys who took the video. Some people just aren't equipped to deal with something like this but, if you are, or think you are, do something.

The man who filmed that video recently commented on Facebook saying that after he stopped filming, he parked his car and waited for first responders to arrive.
Quoting AllyBama:
Here is the link for James Spann. He is not on right now but he start-up his live feed as soon as it is necessary. Many schools in Central Alabama and northward are dismissing school early tomorrow - hopefully in advance of the weather.
http://www.abc3340.com/category/220454/james-span n-24-7-weather
1747. flsky
What an excellent idea.
Quoting 1743. yonzabam:



Stormchasers using drone cameras, now.
Schools in the warned areas should not be open tomorrow. Early dismissals are a nightmare for all involved.
Quoting Astrometeor:


This is the same cell I believe that flattened Mayflower and Vilonia. Amazing that this storm is still going.
Quoting 1723. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Meanwhile, I checked in with WeatherNation and they're covering temperatures in the Southwest USA.


Just saw on WU's main page that Laredo hit 109 today. Makes my high 80s w/out AC seem downright balmy.
1751. Grothar
Quoting billsfaninsofla:
Schools in the warned areas should not be open tomorrow. Early dismissals are a nightmare for all involved.


My county does not do early dismissals (anymore). A lot of the schools are stronger than students' homes, and in past outbreaks the school principals won't allow parents to pull their child from school at a certain time prior to warned storms from arriving.
1753. vital1
Quoting billsfaninsofla:
Schools in the warned areas should not be open tomorrow. Early dismissals are a nightmare for all involved.


In many instances school buildings are built substantially better than the "homes" some of these kids live in.
Quoting 1692. ScottLincoln:

Another sad thing I'm noticing tonight is the usage of tornado emergency. Although great in theory, it's starting to slide into use almost as a tornado warning for confirmed tornadoes. Although that isn't really the intent of NWS forecasters, that's what is starting to happen. Regular tornado warnings used to be mostly reserved for confirmed tornadoes, and over time it has evolved. Now we have newscasters discussing the tornado emergency to mean "when this is issued it means there is confirmation of a tornado on the ground." No, that's really not what it is supposed to mean. And now we wonder, will people who hear that treat a regular tornado warning the same way? I honestly am not sure.



I disagree, I've only seen it used when there is good reason to believe there is a possibly strong to violent tornado confirmed. There are plenty of tornado warnings issued where they are confirmed from the ground that don't have tornado emergencies.

The tornado emergencies tonight are well justified, severe damage has occurred leading to possible injuries and deaths.
I do believe this is the same cell from 3 hours ago that caused this mess.

CLAY AR-DUNKLIN MO-GREENE AR-
1019 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN GREENE...CENTRAL DUNKLIN AND CLAY
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 1019 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
TORNADO WARNING IS CANCELLED.


.CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FUTURE WARNINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR YOUR AREA.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT AREA.

LAT...LON 3635 9003 3609 9061 3622 9073 3650 9042
3650 9023 3652 9023 3653 9022 3653 9021
TIME...MOT...LOC 0319Z 228DEG 42KT 3636 9037
Looks like it could smack Walnut Grove.


1757. sar2401
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Well, for some good news, WKC let us know today is his birthday. :(

LOL. The suspense was killing me too. :-)
1758. BKnGa

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1036 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT STILL EXPECTED...

.UPDATE...

FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS PASSED TO THE NE OF THE AREA WITH
JUST A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING. SECONDARY CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA NOW AS SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS IN MEAN
FLOW RESULT IN ENHANCED ACTIVITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
AND INCREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH AND CURRENT LIKELY REPRESENTATION IN GRIDS LOOKS ON
TARGET.

AS FAR AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR AREA...TRENDS IN MODELS IS
FOR AN EARLIER ARRIVAL WITH LATE MONDAY EVENING NOW LOOKING SEVERE
OVER FAR NW CORNER AND TRANSITIONING INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AS
EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT NOW. ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS
OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST...SIG TOR VALUES MAX OUT AT 5 TO 6 OVER
THE NORTHWEST BY 00Z AND MAINTAIN THIS INTO THE NORTH METRO BY
09Z. EVEN HALVING THIS VALUE AS THE NAM12 IS NOTORIOUSLY HIGH IN
ITS ESTIMATES GIVES US VALUES CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF
STRONG TORNADOES. HAVE ADDED SEVERE VERBIAGE TO ZONES BY INCLUSION
IN GRIDS AND BEEFED UP WORDING IN PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE POSSIBLE
STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

DEESE

I'm not familiar with "Sig Tor Values." Is 5 or 6 particularly high? Either way, have a feeling its going to be a long night in Atlanta tomorrow
Quoting 1727. Ameister12:

Scanner near Vilonia reports of eight possible fatalities near the town.


I don't really want to "like" the comment, rather I'm just showing my awareness, very sad, hopefully its an over count, and that there aren't more fatalities, although the reports of it destroying a number of cars on I-40 is never good news for death/injury potential.
1760. sar2401
Quoting decaturgarden:

If I am in that situation I will take all the help I can get. And right now, there are alot of people in that situation and I really doubt they are asking who is the most qualified before they get pulled out of the rubble. In that moment, you just want out.

That's true. However, when that helpful Good Samaritan doesn't have the training to know to check you for a neck injury before pulling you out of the rubble, and you end up paralyzed because of it, things change rapidly for you and him.
Quoting vital1:


In many instances school buildings are built substantially better than the "homes" some of these kids live in.
From the NWS-Tulsa: "Severe thunderstorms have redeveloped across Southeast Oklahoma late this evening. The convective line will spread across the remainder of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this evening. Large hail...destructive straight line winds to 80 mph and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. The severe weather threat will diminish shortly after midnight as the line shifts east of the region."


Quoting sar2401:

That's true. However, when that helpful Good Samaritan doesn't have the training to know to check you for a neck injury before pulling you out of the rubble, and you end up paralyzed because of it, things change rapidly for you and him.


Yeah...that one part of the law does suck...
Quoting 1760. sar2401:


That's true. However, when that helpful Good Samaritan doesn't have the training to know to check you for a neck injury before pulling you out of the rubble, and you end up paralyzed because of it, things change rapidly for you and him.

Perhaps but a breathing paralyzed survivor will always be better than a dead victim you might have saved. Either way, it's good incentive to get emergency medicine training to as many people as possible.
1765. sar2401
This sort of an odd forecast discussion, even for Birmingham:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1005 PM CDT sun Apr 27 2014


Update...
mesoscale update.


&&


Discussion...


May can try to add to all the discussion points that have been
made with my own forecast opinion. What has been called round one
is still extremely marginal for the overnight and early morning
hours tomorrow. Much of the area got worked over pretty good today
and while some instability values remain high...it appears the
decoupling and lower temperatures at the surface will create a
fairly significant cap through the overnight hours. Still expect
that some leftover showers from upstream will make it through the
area as the weakening cold pool ejects further east...but any
substantial updrafts should be somewhat limited. That being
said...the surface winds are still up...so there is always the
outside chance that some mixing could occur later...but feel
confident to go ahead and remove the wording from the earlier severe weather potential statement
product. Keep in mind too that the upper lapse rates are still
decent...so any storm making it to the level of free convection could become vigorous.


At this point my thoughts are that tomorrow late afternoon into
the evening and overnight hours will be the main show going
forward. Have looked carefully at a lot of parameters and at the
expense of not overthinking the situation...parameters look very
favorable for a significant severe weather event. I don't have
a lot of issues with instability as one would expect for late
April. Most of the guidance is showing anywhere from 1500 to 2000
joules...with some members getting into the greater than 4000
range. That certainly does seem grossly overdone.
Nevertheless...instability should not be an issue by tomorrow 21z.
The wind fields...however...do remain challenging. Again...when we
start talking moderate and high risk...hatched or
otherwise...I would like to see a more consistent wind field that
is favorable. Numerical guidance already struggles with closed
upper lows and how progressive the ejecting shortwaves will
be...but make no mistakes...we have had plenty of outbreaks with
closed upper lows that are roughly similar. Most recently April 15 2011
comes to mind. But again while some guidance has an extremely
favorable wind field...others do not. The latest NAM coming in
still seems to struggle getting a handle on the the upper
flow...now showing a decrease in the low level jet in the 30 to 40
knots range...when earlier runs had it in the 50s. It is also
showing less overall low level turning and speed shear which has
dropped the 0 to 1 km shear magnitudes to 20 to 30 knots.
Again...we are really talking the NAM here...which typically
struggles in general...but just happens to be the latest information. I am
also trying to dissect threat levels that are already certainly
moderate...for any areas that could go more into the extreme
category. Just keep in mind that when analyzing the wind
fields...it will be difficult the pick out mesoscale
details...especially when dealing with closed lows. Just a lot of
uncertainty.


Regardless...when instability values are this high...even small
shear numbers can be quite dangerous...so don't be fooled and don't
let you guard down. The timing is still roughly the same and the
slow nature of the system could keep it around for quite a while
perhaps even as daybreak comes on Tuesday. In my opinion...later Tuesday
is still way up in the air...and still could prove to be trouble
by the late afternoon. Expect the mesoscale to be challenging from
here outward.


SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1035 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH OF FORT SMITH
ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
1767. sar2401
Quoting decaturgarden:

Perhaps but a breathing paralyzed survivor will always be better than a dead victim you might have saved. Either way, it's good incentive to get emergency medicine training to as many people as possible.

Quite so. For people who feel so inclined to help in any kind of an emergency, nothing beats getting some training. Your patient and your lawyer will both thank you for doing so.
Video of a violent tornado near Hume, MO from earlier today.
Just showed a destroyed school on TWC kids should be at home with parent or guardian. Not safe for school buses etc... school districts have emergency days planned for things like this. Good grief, yeah let's have thousands of kids go to school and let them out early hoping to beat the weather.
We finally have no more active tornado warnings. Hopefully the line in W. Arkansas doesn't produce anything overnight...
If you're in the line of fire for tomorrow, best of luck.
I'm off for the night.

1771. geepy86
Quoting sar2401:

That's true. However, when that helpful Good Samaritan doesn't have the training to know to check you for a neck injury before pulling you out of the rubble, and you end up paralyzed because of it, things change rapidly for you and him.

ugh, any help is good help, but I'm old school (pre lawyering up)
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
We finally have no more active tornado warnings. Hopefully the line in W. Arkansas doesn't produce anything overnight...


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1041 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
CALLAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1038 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF LAKE MYKEE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
FULTON AROUND 1100 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CARRINGTON.
I'm gonna call it a night. My thoughts go out to those affected by today's tornadoes.

Hope you all have a good night and stay safe!
Quoting 1771. geepy86:


ugh, any help is good help, but I'm old school (pre lawyering up)


I think I might call that common sense rather than 'old school'....
I'm all for people chasing weather and filming it but the idea that you could do that and then turn the camera off to wait and watch until 'trained' personnel arrive some how seems heartless. And wrong. I'm sure there is a lawyer on here that will prove me wrong but at what point do we stop being a member of TV nation and actually start interacting with the world around us as we find it? Sorry for the rant, it just seems foolish to not be human first, lawyer minded second.
storms developing along the dry line just crossing into Missouri now .. new watch till 6am
No words :-( :-(



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX...WRN LA...FAR SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 280345Z - 280545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND FOR
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY THAT MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS
OVERTAKING MOIST/STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR E OF A WAVY DRYLINE ANALYZED
FROM ERN PARTS OF THE DFW METROPLEX TO WACO TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS ACCAS DEVELOPMENT OVER N-CNTRL TX FROM
WHICH COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM
NEAR/E OF THE DRYLINE. STRENGTHENING DEEP ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY OFFSET NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION TO ENCOURAGE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH MLCAPE AROUND
2500-4000 J/KG OVERLAPPING WITH 45-70 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...INTENSE/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS MAY ENSUE. CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE INTO QLCS SEGMENTS
PERHAPS SUPPORTING A GREATER DMGG WIND RISK. GIVEN 30-40 KT OF
0-1-KM BULK SHEAR PER VWP DATA...A TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST.

..COHEN/HART.. 04/28/2014


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31299709 32469662 33719580 33029341 30909348 30209608
31299709

According to Lt. Carl Minden with Pulaski County Sheriff's office there have been three confirmed deaths along the 4000 Block of Deer Drive on the Western edge of Pulaski County.

Also, significant homes damaged, powerlines down and trees in the heavily-wooded area.

Most people are accounted for but they are still searching other homes and will not know for sure until tomorrow.

It is a search, rescue and recovery mission
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1053 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOC027-280415-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-140428T0415Z/
CALLAWAY MO-
1053 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CALLAWAY COUNTY UNTIL 1115
PM CDT...

AT 1050 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW BLOOMFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
FULTON AROUND 1100 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 9214 3889 9215 3906 9195 3906 9181
3878 9174 3858 9216 3861 9220 3862 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0353Z 237DEG 45KT 3879 9201

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

GLASS
Quoting 1776. AussieStorm:

No words :-( :-(




only one of the uses for a drone .. video look pretty bad couldn't tell
what several things even were.. was that a truck stop by the side
of the road or some kind of business ??
1782. sar2401
Quoting vital1:


In many instances school buildings are built substantially better than the "homes" some of these kids live in.

We had a devastating EF-4 tornado in Enterprise AL on March 1, 2007. Eight high schools students lost their lives because, instead of being in the interior hallways that were designed to resist a tornado, they were lined up in an unprotected hallway leading to the gym, waiting for busses, because the school was dismissing kids at 1:00. An elementary school located just down the street was hit by the same tornado, and the remaining students and staff sheltered in a protected hallway. No one was killed.

In Alabama, we're sending kids away from a reasonably sturdy structure to drive through the streets on school busses that are notoriously poor performers in a tornado and, in about 20% of the cases, they are going to end up in a mobile home. This is completely nonsensical. If it's too dangerous for parents and school busses to be on the streets. the school should not open. If the kids are already at school, shelter the kids at school until the emergency passes.
Quoting 1774. decaturgarden:


I think I might call that common sense rather than 'old school'....
I'm all for people chasing weather and filming it but the idea that you could do that and then turn the camera off to wait and watch until 'trained' personnel arrive some how seems heartless. And wrong. I'm sure there is a lawyer on here that will prove me wrong but at what point do we stop being a member of TV nation and actually start interacting with the world around us as we find it? Sorry for the rant, it just seems foolish to not be human first, lawyer minded second.
The real commonsense answer to this is, if you chase, you need to train as well. Who knows... maybe someone in your own group might benefit, not to mention people hit by the tornado. Even if you can't move the person for fear of neck injuries, it seems better to at least be knowledgeable about when a neck injury is likely ....
Quoting whitewabit:


only one of the uses for a drone .. video look pretty bad couldn't tell what several things even were.. was that a truck stop by the side of the road or some kind of business ??


No idea, but for a marker, that road was I-40.
Its a good thing the Mayflower/Vilonia tornado did not happen any further south, Little Rock really narrowly dodged the bullet. Poor Vilonia, I was posting on this blog 3 years ago, the night they got hit last.
the threat is passing isolated overnight severe
Little Rock, AR (KLZK) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)
1787. sar2401
Quoting whitewabit:


only one of the uses for a drone .. video look pretty bad couldn't tell
what several things even were.. was that a truck stop by the side
of the road or some kind of business ??

Actually, I was pretty amazed at the quality of the video, considering it was near dark. I think the fisheye lens was distorting things a little but, compared to using a "real" helicopter and crew, this is a cheap way to get real-time information about how bad things are.
Quoting 1787. sar2401:


Actually, I was pretty amazed at the quality of the video, considering it was near dark. I think the fisheye lens was distorting things a little but, compared to using a "real" helicopter and crew, this is a cheap way to get real-time information about how bad things are.
ya they are a great little tool for sure
1789. sar2401
Quoting jamesrainier:

Looks like a good sized hurricane except for it being over the Midwest.
1790. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the threat is passing isolated overnight severe
Little Rock, AR (KLZK) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Look to the left, Keep. I'm not so sure the threat is passing.
straight line wind event
Paducah, KY (KPAH) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)


SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1110 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CORSICANA
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Quoting whitewabit:


only one of the uses for a drone .. video look pretty bad couldn't tell
what several things even were.. was that a truck stop by the side
of the road or some kind of business ??


Looks like a truck stop but could be another sorta business.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1116 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SHARP COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN IZARD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN INDEPENDENCE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1112 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF CUSHMAN...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MELBOURNE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
CHEROKEE VILLAGE... ASH FLAT... SIDNEY...
MT PLEASANT... LAKE THUNDERBIRD... LAKE SEQUOYAH...
LAKE OMAHA... LAKE NAVAJO... LAKE CHANUTE...
HARDY... SITKA... WILLIFORD...
LAKE AZTEC... LAFFERTY... EVENING SHADE...
CENTER...
1796. sar2401
Quoting decaturgarden:

I think I might call that common sense rather than 'old school'....
I'm all for people chasing weather and filming it but the idea that you could do that and then turn the camera off to wait and watch until 'trained' personnel arrive some how seems heartless. And wrong. I'm sure there is a lawyer on here that will prove me wrong but at what point do we stop being a member of TV nation and actually start interacting with the world around us as we find it? Sorry for the rant, it just seems foolish to not be human first, lawyer minded second.

I didn't understand why those chasers would pull to the side of the road and "wait" for first responders. Either get out and help or get out of the way. As I wrote earlier, when there are no first responders on scene, and you're capable of helping (some people aren't), then go help. Really, though, it's not being lawyer minded to do reasonable things. Regardless of the legal consequences, you're not going to feel good about what you did to help if you inadvertently injure the person further when a rescue could have waited for qualified personnel to arrive on scene. All a lawyer can do is get your money. You have to live with whatever the outcome the rest of your life.
Quoting 1787. sar2401:


Actually, I was pretty amazed at the quality of the video, considering it was near dark. I think the fisheye lens was distorting things a little but, compared to using a "real" helicopter and crew, this is a cheap way to get real-time information about how bad things are.


those little GoPro camera's have a 2.0 lens and a low light setting .. put out great video for the price ..
Quoting 1796. sar2401:


I didn't understand why those chasers would pull to the side of the road and "wait" for first responders. Either get out and help or get out of the way. As I wrote earlier, when there are no first responders on scene, and you're capable of helping (some people aren't), then go help. Really, though, it's not being lawyer minded to do reasonable things. Regardless of the legal consequences, you're not going to feel good about what you did to help if you inadvertently injure the person further when a rescue could have waited for qualified personnel to arrive on scene. All a lawyer can do is get your money. You have to live with whatever the outcome the rest of your life.


many states have Good Samaritan Laws .. know Illinois and Indiana do .. not sure of others ..
Quoting 1774. decaturgarden:


I think I might call that common sense rather than 'old school'....
I'm all for people chasing weather and filming it but the idea that you could do that and then turn the camera off to wait and watch until 'trained' personnel arrive some how seems heartless. And wrong. I'm sure there is a lawyer on here that will prove me wrong but at what point do we stop being a member of TV nation and actually start interacting with the world around us as we find it? Sorry for the rant, it just seems foolish to not be human first, lawyer minded second.

Tell that to everyone that "lawyers up" when there is a potential for "free" money to be made.

For example... In TX, we have a good samaritan law. This law protects "good samaritans" who stop to render aid at the scene of an accident or crime. It prevents them from being criminally or civilly tried for damages that are a result of the aid rendered. BUT... medical professionals, even if they are not working at the time of rendering aid, are deemed to have "advanced training", and the law does not apply to them. This means that if I (as an RN) stop at the scene of an accident, render aid (such as simple first aid or CPR), and one of the victims passes or has lasting injuries (even mental ones), I can be found negligible and my nursing license can be forfeit.

That is the definition of "messed up". As an RN, I know LOTS of things that are very simple and can potentially save someone's life. But if I pass by an accident before EMS shows up... all I can do without risking my license is call 911. (if I actually SEE the accident take place, I am legally obligated to render aid - but I can only safely render aid which a normal, untrained member of the public can do, which excludes CPR or basic first aid).

It may be selfish, but my livelihood and career is more than I'm willing to risk.
Quoting 1798. whitewabit:



many states have Good Samaritan Laws .. know Illinois and Indiana do .. not sure of others ..

As I mentioned in 1800... Texas does too, but there are limitations. The most capable of helping as a good samaritan put themselves at risk by helping.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1131 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

ARC049-065-135-280445-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140428T0445Z/
FULTON AR-IZARD AR-SHARP AR-
1131 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SHARP...EAST CENTRAL IZARD
AND SOUTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1127 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SIDNEY...OR 13 MILES EAST OF
MELBOURNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
CHEROKEE VILLAGE... ASH FLAT... SIDNEY...
LAKE THUNDERBIRD... LAKE SEQUOYAH... LAKE OMAHA...
LAKE NAVAJO... LAKE CHANUTE... HARDY...
SITKA... WILLIFORD... LAKE AZTEC...
EVENING SHADE... CENTER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
600 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3599 9178 3637 9156 3626 9131 3594 9166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 213DEG 52KT 3603 9166
Quoting AussieStorm:


DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SIDNEY...OR 13 MILES EAST OF
MELBOURNE...


Sidney...Melbourne...

Aussie, you sure this thing ain't in Australia?

:)
Quoting Astrometeor:


Sidney...Melbourne...

Aussie, you sure this thing ain't in Australia?

:)


I saw that too.
TORNADO WARNING
ARC071-101-115-129-280500-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0020.140428T0439Z-140428T0500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1139 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SEARCY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTH CENTRAL POPE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...


* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1137 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF DILLEN...OR 18 MILES SOUTH
OF JASPER. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
WITTS SPRING... MOORE... DILLEN...
BERTHA... SAND GAP...
RICHLAND CREEK CAMPGROUND... PELSOR...
LURTON... COWELL... BEN HUR...
BASS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
1808. geepy86
oops, wrong Melbourne, carry on
Not trying to take attention away from death and destruction that these tornados brought. But, in regards to the Hail Angels getting hit by the tornado, I think this should be posted on the blog especially since it hasn't been one year since El Rino.

Link
Many states have Good Samaritan laws. In some states these laws protect medical professionals.
(Hi jeffs)

Chasers have given aid and helped persons injured by severe weather in the past and they will again.
(Good night, sar.)
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Not trying to take attention away from death and destruction that these tornados brought. But, in regards to the Hail Angels getting hit by the tornado, I think this should be posted on the blog especially since it hasn't been one year since El Rino.

Link


Wonder what happened to that tractor-trailer that passed them right before it went dark. If you want to talk about bad drivers...those 18-wheelers fit the bill way too often.
11 confirmed deaths in Arkansas, 1 confirmed death in Oklahoma. Expect this number to rise.
NWS Tiyan Guam
=================

A TYPHOON WATCH is now in effect for Alamagan and Pagan

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian
Many of us have witnessed sun pillars--columns of light that lance upwards from the horizon just as the sun is rising or setting. They are caused by plate-shaped ice crystals in clouds that bend the rays of the low-hanging sun. While sun pillars are frequently seen, in all seasons and at all latitudes, elusive companions of sun pillars may have been frequently overlooked. They are called sun pillar "echos":

Atmospheric optics expert Les Cowley explains: "13 years ago in Finland, three halo experts saw peculiar 'echoes' straddling an otherwise ordinary sun pillar. They could not be explained and there the matter rested for want of confirmation by another observation. Then, last week, Jon Inghram sent me several sun pillar images. He too had noticed faint 'echoes' on each side of his pillar – the mysterious ice halo was at last confirmed!"

"More details and pictures may be found in an article here. But we still cannot explain them. The Finland observers, Jon and I have each tried simulations using the flattened pyramid crystals invoked to account for elliptical halos. They do not work at all well. We need many more observations! Take plenty of pictures of each pillar. The echoes are easily overlooked or mistaken for cloud patches and have probably been seen many times. Observations under different conditions could help unravel their mystery."
Source
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
NWS Tiyan Guam
=================

A TYPHOON WATCH is now in effect for Alamagan and Pagan

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian


Strange looking storm.

Huge storms happened tonight.

I think I've located the spot on I-40 near Mayflower where that aerial video was taken on Google Maps.

Does look like that was a truck stop that got blown to smithereens. Can only hope there weren't too many folks there at the time.
1819. sar2401
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Not trying to take attention away from death and destruction that these tornados brought. But, in regards to the Hail Angels getting hit by the tornado, I think this should be posted on the blog especially since it hasn't been one year since El Rino.

Link

Fricken' unbelievable. They passed an off ramp that might have taken them to shelter, but instead kept driving right into the gates of hell. No radar? I heard the tornado warning on the scanner. I don't know who protected them, but they should read Proverbs 14:15 and reconsider their hobby.
Storms in Texas have shown signs of rotation...



ANDERSON TX-
1255 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY...

AT 1254 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
WEST OF PALESTINE AND HAS SHOWN SOME EVIDENCE OF ROTATION...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PALESTINE AROUND 100 AM CDT...
Quoting 1818. FlyingScotsman:

I think I've located the spot on I-40 near Mayflower where that aerial video was taken on Google Maps.

Does look like that was a truck stop that got blown to smithereens. Can only hope there weren't too many folks there at the time.


I used Google street view - RV place on one side, and a lumber yard, transmission place and hardware store on the other. KATV said something about an RV place, first time I saw the coverage from there.

Good job finding the right place!
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1245 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1203 AM TSTM WND DMG AVA 36.95N 92.66W
04/28/2014 DOUGLAS MO EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER POLE SNAPPED WITH TREES DOWN.
Heads up, sar, it's your turn tomorrow (Tuesday):



Threat doesn't appear as substantial as today or yesterday though.
Today's tornado probs:

Why did they extend a tornado watch eastwards when the thing will expire in 2 hours as of their writing it? Now it's 30 mins away...

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 103
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1157 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

KYC047-059-101-107-149-177-219-225-233-280700-
/O.EXA.KPAH.TO.A.0103.000000T0000Z-140428T0700Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 103 TO
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 2 AM CDT MONDAY

IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

IN WESTERN KENTUCKY

CHRISTIAN DAVIESS HENDERSON
HOPKINS MCLEAN MUHLENBERG
TODD UNION WEBSTER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DIXON...ELKTON...
GREENVILLE...HENDERSON...HOPKINSVILLE...MADISONVI LLE...
MORGANFIELD AND OWENSBORO.
Good night everyone.

1827. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Heads up, sar, it's your turn tomorrow (Tuesday):



Threat doesn't appear as substantial as today or yesterday though.

Yeah, I know. :-( Of course, it didn't look so bad early yesterday either. It stil 70 with a dewpoint of 67, but no fog, not even haze. The air smells...I don't know...smells funny. I don't know if you've ever been in a real jungle, but it smells like a dank jungle. We're still getting a good south wind and the Gulf flow is really cranking. Since I'm SE AL, I figure I get the worst of it overnight and into Tuesday morning. Great. Radar dog will be psycho all night...again. Well, all I can do is hope that whatever we get isn't as bad as what happened yesterday. Has anyone heard what estimated path length on the monster in Arkansas was?
1828. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
Good night everyone.


GN...Nathan...No, Kyle...ah, rats, I've forgotten again. :-)
1829. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
Why did they extend a tornado watch eastwards when the thing will expire in 2 hours as of their writing it? Now it's 30 mins away...

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 103
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1157 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

KYC047-059-101-107-149-177-219-225-233-280700-
/O.EXA.KPAH.TO.A.0103.000000T0000Z-140428T0700Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 103 TO
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 2 AM CDT MONDAY

IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

IN WESTERN KENTUCKY

CHRISTIAN DAVIESS HENDERSON
HOPKINS MCLEAN MUHLENBERG
TODD UNION WEBSTER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DIXON...ELKTON...
GREENVILLE...HENDERSON...HOPKINSVILLE...MADISONVI LLE...
MORGANFIELD AND OWENSBORO.

Probably because there's already a tornado indicated by radar in one of those counties, I forget which one now.
1830. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today's tornado probs:


Betcha it goes above 15% at some point tomorrow (today).
1831. sar2401
Quoting jeffs713:

Tell that to everyone that "lawyers up" when there is a potential for "free" money to be made.

For example... In TX, we have a good samaritan law. This law protects "good samaritans" who stop to render aid at the scene of an accident or crime. It prevents them from being criminally or civilly tried for damages that are a result of the aid rendered. BUT... medical professionals, even if they are not working at the time of rendering aid, are deemed to have "advanced training", and the law does not apply to them. This means that if I (as an RN) stop at the scene of an accident, render aid (such as simple first aid or CPR), and one of the victims passes or has lasting injuries (even mental ones), I can be found negligible and my nursing license can be forfeit.

That is the definition of "messed up". As an RN, I know LOTS of things that are very simple and can potentially save someone's life. But if I pass by an accident before EMS shows up... all I can do without risking my license is call 911. (if I actually SEE the accident take place, I am legally obligated to render aid - but I can only safely render aid which a normal, untrained member of the public can do, which excludes CPR or basic first aid).

It may be selfish, but my livelihood and career is more than I'm willing to risk.

Geez, what screwed up GS law. I was a paramedic in California, and the GS law protected me as long as I rendered care within the scope of my practice and training, and my care is what any other reasonable paramedic would have done in the same circumstances. Unless I was negligent or displayed wanton disregard for the patient's safety, I wasn't going to be sued, or at least sued successfully. Paramedics and RN's in California are held to about the same standard of care, and most courts in California have made it clear that a lawyer had better have an airtight case against a professional who rendered voluntary care or they were going to be hit with a frivolous suit charge. My late wife was an RN, and the only time she ever got sued was for discrimination, because she gave a minority employee a bad evaluation. Go figure.
1832. sar2401
Quoting whitewabit:


many states have Good Samaritan Laws .. know Illinois and Indiana do .. not sure of others ..

Good Samaritan laws are generally written to protect people with some level of medical training, even basic first aid. As long as you didn't do more than you were trained to do and did it correctly, you're safe. It sounds like, from Jeff's comments, that law in Texas does the opposite, but most states don't offer any protection to someone with no medical training at all. You're on your own in terms of what care you render. Putting on a bandaid isn't going to get you into trouble. Pulling someone out of a collapsed structure who's not in imminent danger of death....well, you're pretty much on your own there.
I have a question. Where I live, the atmosphere is capped, and suppresses rain and thunderstorm development. Is this cap a permanent thing? Or does it go away.
Quoting 1831. sar2401:


Geez, what screwed up GS law. I was a paramedic in California, and the GS law protected me as long as I rendered care within the scope of my practice and training, and my care is what any other reasonable paramedic would have done in the same circumstances. Unless I was negligent or displayed wanton disregard for the patient's safety, I wasn't going to be sued, or at least sued successfully. Paramedics and RN's in California are held to about the same standard of care, and most courts in California have made it clear that a lawyer had better have an airtight case against a professional who rendered voluntary care or they were going to be hit with a frivolous suit charge. My late wife was an RN, and the only time she ever got sued was for discrimination, because she gave a minority employee a bad evaluation. Go figure.

The real issue with the TX GS law is how RNs are treated. The law doesn't specifically mention RNs or MDs, but there have been cases where an RN who performed some care during an event as a GS was basically ruined because they had the knowledge/ability to do more, or could have done something differently based on their knowledge. By and large, if I pulled over and provided care utilizing some of my knowledge/skills, I would have absolutely zero to worry about. But there are always those odd cases where I get stretched beyond my skillset, make a "shot in the dark" in the heat of the moment, and end up wrong. Or an unfortunate side effect to the care I provided can cost me my license (breaking someone's ribs while performing successful CPR).

In TX, the professions that the good samaritan law covers are: law enforcement, firefighters (both paid and volunteer), and certified EMS. RNs and MDs are not covered.

In TX, it just isn't worth the risk - it is entirely possible that you could save someone's life, but lose your license - and your career - in the process.
Quoting 1833. Stormchaser121:

I have a question. Where I live, the atmosphere is capped, and suppresses rain and thunderstorm development. Is this cap a permanent thing? Or does it go away.

It can go away with wind shifts or an increase in moisture. Some (stronger) storms can "break the cap", and get very nasty. Think of a cap as a "glass ceiling". Normally, cumulus clouds will hit the cap, stop, and not amount to much. But if something breaks the glass ceiling, all bets are off.

(for a more technical explanation, a "cap" is a layer of warmer air or drier air that prevents convection. For convection to happen, a parcel of air has to be warmer than the air around it. If a warm parcel rises, and then hits a layer of air the same temp or warmer, the rising stops. If it hits a much drier layer, that can cause the rising parcel of air to cool quickly via evaporation, which stops its ability to move)
Quoting 1835. jeffs713:


It can go away with wind shifts or an increase in moisture. Some (stronger) storms can "break the cap", and get very nasty. Think of a cap as a "glass ceiling". Normally, cumulus clouds will hit the cap, stop, and not amount to much. But if something breaks the glass ceiling, all bets are off.

(for a more technical explanation, a "cap" is a layer of warmer air or drier air that prevents convection. For convection to happen, a parcel of air has to be warmer than the air around it. If a warm parcel rises, and then hits a layer of air the same temp or warmer, the rising stops. If it hits a much drier layer, that can cause the rising parcel of air to cool quickly via evaporation, which stops its ability to move)
Thanks! Its always been something I wanted to understand further.
Quoting 1660. AllyBama:

I am reading comments about whether one should stop to help or not. I truly understand both sides of this debate. As for myself, I will help. I could not live with myself knowing that someone may have died simply because I didn't stop to try and help...and don't let me find out that someone didn't stop to help one of my children or grandchildren and just simply drove on by..not good! I was first up behind a wreck once and my daughter and I both jumped out to help...thinking what were we going to do besides call 911 - lo and behold the next car on the scene was a nurse and her husband. God does take care of us just long as we follow his lead and that is to help others.


for someone to film a disaster instead of stopping to see if help was needed makes me sick to my stomach.
1838. LargoFl
TORNADO WARNING
ARC027-073-LAC015-017-119-280900-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0009.140428T0810Z-140428T0900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
310 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SPRINGHILL...
COLUMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 400 AM CDT

* AT 310 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HOSSTON...
OR 22 MILES WEST OF SPRINGHILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PLAIN DEALING BY 315 AM CDT...
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRADLEY BY 325 AM CDT...
TAYLOR...WELCOME...SPRINGHILL AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CULLEN BY
335 AM CDT...
BUSSEY BY 340 AM CDT...
1839. LargoFl
the news this morning is horrible,those tornado's killed people and destroyed so much AND today looks like a repeat performance....folks Heed your local warnings and stay safe.........prayers for those killed and injured.............
Arkansas death toll now up to 16, with another fatality in Oklahoma. I've a feeling that could rise dramatically once daylight returns.

Link
1841. LargoFl
Quoting 1840. yonzabam:

Arkansas death toll now up to 16, with another fatality in Oklahoma. I've a feeling that could rise dramatically once daylight returns.

Link
yes another real bad day for more area's today
1842. LargoFl
Please folks..Heed your Local Warnings today.............................................
Nino 1&2 are shooting up very fast and is nearing El-Nino levels now.


I thought we were going to get lucky yesterday with tornadoes missing the populated areas. Unfortunately, that was not the case.

Dixie Alley is the area to watch today. This area has become one of the worst areas in the country for tornadoes over the past few years. Hope everyone pays attention to their local warnings today.
I'll be busy at work shaping young minds, but I'll check back during my lunch break and after work.

Everyone stay safe.
There wasn't many tornadoes yesterday but some of the ones that hit were in intense.

Some of these reports are from the same tornado.
Came across this one another site. This speaks volumes on why we are on are way to a very strong El-Nino and fast! The only time I've seen one form this fast was 1997.



sad news indeed just to keep it in perspective more than a few people died in auto accidents in florida this wkend
Good morning everybody.

Sun isn't up in Arkansas, but it's clear the damage in Vilonia was extreme. I can't imagine what kind of destruction the sunlight will reveal.

This is believed to be what's left of a Dollar General


Corner of Main St. & 64B street.

Quoting 1848. Ameister12:
Good morning everybody.

Sun isn't up in Arkansas, but it's clear the damage in Vilonia was extreme. I can't imagine what kind of destruction the sunlight will reveal.

This is believed to be what's left of a Dollar General


Corner of Main St. & 64B street.



Looks like EF 4 or EF 5 damage from what I've seen on the news.
1850. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone..

TWC is reporting 18 deaths from yesterday's storms..unfortunately this system will continue to track to the eastern coast. The WRF model below has a very nasty line in its latest run that goes through the Florida's panhandle..

I think at this point those areas in the moderate risk should cancelled schools today after what we saw yesterday..



1851. vital1
Good morning from Central Mississippi! Wish us luck today. Schools will not cancel in my area and personally I don't think they should. If you've ever been to MS you know that there's a lot of trailers and houses that some would consider shanty shacks. School buildings are much safer than these structures. I do understand the reasoning behind wanting them to cancel, though. The school districts will hold buses in the morning and afternoon if there is a tornado warning, but I'm not sure about a severe thunderstorm warning.
Sad to see so many deaths from the storms yesterday. Hope everyone affected on the blog is okay! Fingers crossed that the damage will be minimal over the next couple of days, with the tornadoes touching down in remote fields away from people/livestock.
1853. MahFL
Quoting 1833. Stormchaser121:

I have a question. Where I live, the atmosphere is capped, and suppresses rain and thunderstorm development. Is this cap a permanent thing? Or does it go away.


Why don't you use google to research caps ?
The HRRR kills of this morning's line after it passes through MS/AL, and then develops these monsters by 4-7pm




I'm concerned
Outbreak potential

1857. LargoFl
gee with daytime heating this line might explode.....stay alert today folks..................
1858. LargoFl
Good Morning/Evening.

Thanks for that cross section of a forming El Nino, STS! #1846
That very graphically shows what is progressing toward the surface in the Pacific.
What is the path to that?

Photos of extensive damage in Baxter Springs, Kansas. My condolenses to the families of those who were killed.Hopefully today and Tuesday go without any more deaths.



1861. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
FROM DRUM POINT TO SMITH POINT...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB
ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...AND TANGIER SOUND. IN ADDITION...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM
POOLES ISLAND TO DRUM POINT INCLUDING ALL INLETS AS WELL AS THE
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING MAY LEAD TO FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
AS WELL AS ON CREEKS AND SMALLER RIVERS.

THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY METRO WASHINGTON DC
INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND A NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARYLAND PORTION
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY.

$$
Astrometeor,

If the ice crystals are reflecting a false sun in the form of a pillar, doesn't it make sense that they would also reflect a false and fainter halo, also an ice reflectance phenomenon?
Aren’t the pillars at the right locations for the edges of a halo, if the center of the pillar was the center of the sun?
What a nice day it is! Hot and sunny....not a cloud in the sky! You couldn't ask for a more perfect day here.

TWC Breaking @TWCBreaking

Possible rotation along squall line NE of Memphis. A #tornado may develop quickly & may be rain-wrapped. pic.twitter.com/5qdS5Y0CeB
TORNADO WARNING
TNC047-075-157-167-281230-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0029.140428T1150Z-140428T1230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 650 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DIXONVILLE...OR 12
MILES EAST OF MILLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS
OF NORTHEASTERN SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON
AND SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

.TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.
Quoting 1854. GeorgiaStormz:

The HRRR kills of this morning's line after it passes through MS/AL, and then develops these monsters by 4-7pm




I'm concerned


I'm no expert, but I've read that 'discrete' supercells are much more dangerous than a continuous line for spawning tornadoes, and I'm guessing that those red dots are what's meant by 'discrete'.
Quoting 1867. yonzabam:


I'm no expert, but I've read that 'discrete' supercells are much more dangerous than a continuous line for spawning tornadoes, and I'm guessing that those red dots are what's meant by 'discrete'.


They are much more dangerous as those cells that are being depicted would be individual supercells. Supercells are rotating thunderstorms.
Look at how fast the transition to El-Nino has gone so far. Incredible!!

4/3/14


4/28/14
You guys finally have your tornado season.Is this what you really wanted?.Dang I wish our luck could have continued.The U.S would have gone the longest stretch without a tornado death in a long time.As i said before I feared people were not prepared for this and even today I feel that way.
Chasers, be safe out there.
We are neck and neck with 1997 with 1997 in a slight lead right now with Nino 1&2 being higher the later part of April 1997. However Nino 4, Nino 3, and Nino 3.4 are higher in 2014 so far.

Quoting 1871. biff4ugo:
Chasers, be safe out there.


Hails stormchasing crew got hit yesterday and are lucky to be alive.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Look at how fast the transition to El-Nino has went so far. Incredible!!

4/3/14


4/28/14



is that a area of red poping up off the coast


I think with El-Nino coming the next 12 to 18 months looks prime for tornadoes especially November thru March next year from Texas to FL.
I hope this el nino is west bound..which is good for D.C snow.If it's to close to the S.A coast (like 1997) then that means nothing but rain and a light jacket for the winter.


MattRogers
4/24/2014 2:07 PM EDT
I didn't see any- the bigger issue is what kind of El Ni%uFFFDo do we get. Is it west-based like 09-10 and 02-03 (big snow!) or more east-based like (04-05 or 06-07 with sparse snow).
Quoting 1874. Tazmanian:



is that a area of red poping up off the coast




It's popping up rapidly and spreading west. Those that were saying this would be a weak El-Nino well that's been shot down now as we are in a rapid transition to a moderate to strong El-Nino over the next 3 to 4 weeks. Needless to say this record sub surface warm pool is surfacing now.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It's popping up rapidly and spreading west. Those that were saying this would be a weak El-Nino and thats it have been shot down now as we are in a rapid transition to a moderate to strong El-Nino over the next 3 to 4 weeks. Needless to say this record sub surface warm pool is surfacing now.


wow


i call them EL nino downcaster lol
Quoting 1876. washingtonian115:
I hope this tornado is west bound..which is good for D.C snow.If it's to close to the S.A coast (like 1997) then that means nothing but rain and a light jacket for the winter.


Not true Washi infact some well known met's are concerned from FL up to the mid Atlantic for major Nor Easters this Winter and you may get dumped with more snow than you think..
not a hole lot of severe weather going on in MS and AL things wil be nuts there later
1881. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I think with El-Nino coming the next 12 to 18 months looks prime for tornadoes especially November thru March next year from Texas to FL.


The Nino 3.4 is holding steady below 0.5C, so we are almost there but not quite. Its inevitable though with all that warm water ready to surface.

1882. MahFL
Quoting 1876. washingtonian115:

I hope this tornado is west bound..which is good for D.C snow.If it's to close to the S.A coast (like 1997) then that means nothing but rain and a light jacket for the winter.


Tornado ?
Quoting 1881. StormWx:


The Nino 3.4 is holding steady below 0.5C, so we are almost there but not quite. Its inevitable though with all that warm water ready to surface.



Nino 1&2 has exploded with warmth just in the last few days and its continuing to warm at a rapid rate infact an average of .08 with each 6 hour update on the CDAS site
Quoting 1879. StormTrackerScott:



Not true Washi infact some well known met's are concerned from FL up to the mid Atlantic for major Nor Easters this Winter and you may get dumped with more snow than you think..
I edited my post.I'm hoping that we do get more snow as the past few winters before 013-014 have sucked eggs.It's been very rare since the 80's to have two back to back impressive winters.

1882. MahFL
12:40 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
You can delete that as I have edited it.
1885. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Those that were saying this would be a weak El-Nino and thats it have been shot down now as we are in a rapid transition to a moderate to strong El-Nino over the next 3 to 4 weeks.


Scotty, no one has a magic crystal ball. Your guess is as good as mine when i say weak and you say strong. Remember, its a 90 day average and the values will continue to fluctuate. Exciting though i know bubba!
Quoting 1876. washingtonian115:
I hope this tornado is west bound..which is good for D.C snow.If it's to close to the S.A coast (like 1997) then that means nothing but rain and a light jacket for the winter.


MattRogers
4/24/2014 2:07 PM EDT
I didn't see any- the bigger issue is what kind of El Ni�o do we get. Is it west-based like 09-10 and 02-03 (big snow!) or more east-based like (04-05 or 06-07 with sparse snow).


He's wrong Washi as 04 and 05 were modiki

Quoting 1884. washingtonian115:
I edited my post.I'm hoping that we do get more snow as the past few winters before 013-014 have sucked eggs.It's been very rare since the 80's to have two back to back impressive winters.


Storm track maybe right up the east coast. It's likely that we will have phasing from time to time with the Polar jet causing explosive storms to form near the Mid Atlantic.


Quoting 1873. StormTrackerScott:



Hails stormchasing crew got hit yesterday and are lucky to be alive.


Yeah, especially when you see their footage that I posted in 1810
Quoting 1887. StormTrackerScott:



Storm track maybe right up the east coast.


Knowing the D.C bias usually after a epic winter a pathetic or less impressive one follows.Take 09-010 and 010-011 for example.I got 76 inches at my house for the winter (09-010).Only to have 15 the next and 011-012?...well we all know how that went...
Quoting 1810. JTDailyUpdate:
Not trying to take attention away from death and destruction that these tornados brought. But, in regards to the Hail Angels getting hit by the tornado, I think this should be posted on the blog especially since it hasn't been one year since El Rino.

Link


Very scary. I hope today's chasers stay out of harms way. My sympathy to those affected by these storms. It's eerie that last night's long track tornado came so close to Joplin. Can't even imagine what went through the minds of those who endured this - and it isn't over yet. Thanks for posting this reminder that you can be way too close to the storm.
Quoting 1888. JTDailyUpdate:


Yeah, especially when you see their footage that I posted in 1810


I really don't get it. Why put yourself in so much danger to risk your life just to get that money shot.
Quoting 1827. sar2401:

Yeah, I know. :-( Of course, it didn't look so bad early yesterday either. It stil 70 with a dewpoint of 67, but no fog, not even haze. The air smells...I don't know...smells funny. I don't know if you've ever been in a real jungle, but it smells like a dank jungle. We're still getting a good south wind and the Gulf flow is really cranking. Since I'm SE AL, I figure I get the worst of it overnight and into Tuesday morning. Great. Radar dog will be psycho all night...again. Well, all I can do is hope that whatever we get isn't as bad as what happened yesterday. Has anyone heard what estimated path length on the monster in Arkansas was?


Last night wx channel was measuring at 60 miles but it wasn't done yet. That was after it had been on the ground for almost 2 hours.
1893. LargoFl
gee going to be some mean supercell storms this evening there.............................
Quoting 1893. LargoFl:
gee going to be some mean supercell storms this evening there.............................


That's insane largo! I wonder if SPC issues a high risk later.
1895. LargoFl
Quoting 1895. LargoFl:


Latest runs of the GFS and Euro are suggesting that the severe weather risk will spread into FL later in the week.

1897. LargoFl
Quoting 1894. StormTrackerScott:



That's insane largo! I wonder if SPC issues a high risk later.
I think if you check around the nws sites there ARE warning of severe storms this evening..guess with daytime heating etc these storms will explode..gee this is awful...
It's Monday, 9AM! Where's the new POST?! Chop, chop! People's lives are in the balance here!
1899. LargoFl
every threat level is HIGH....folks take the warnings seriously...................................
Good Morning. Three comments on the tornado outbreak yesterday:

Condolences to the Families of the lost ones and those impacted and who lost their homes.

Stresses the importance of NOAA radios and needed news and media coverage (by radio, broadcast TV, or dish/cable) in rural pockets as well as the issue of people in these same areas having tornado shelters to evacuate to (as well as government subsidies or tax credits to help with the cost of building one).

Dr. Forbes is the best thing on TWC; I was very impressed by his coverage, and explanations of the real time radar signatures, along with Cantore stationed at SPC; it was a great combination and they get an A+.
1901. LargoFl
storms are gonna catch folks while their sleeping,overnight severe..................
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1903. LargoFl
LATER TODAY...THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS TO INCREASE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY MONDAY EVENING...AND
PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
CAMDEN...GROVE HILL... CHATOM...TO LEAKESVILLE LINE.
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY LARGE HAIL OF GOLF BALL SIZE OR
LARGER ARE ALL THREATS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STRONG...LONG TRACKED TORNADO OVER THESE AREAS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER EXPANDS EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ALL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINS THIS PAST MONTH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND RAIN SOAKED GROUND CONDITIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES FROM
THIS STORM EVENT INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF AND FLASH
FLOODING.

Good morning, everyone

It's 82 (already above the forecasted 81), feeling like 86, a few clouds, with very little breeze this morning. Looking like a hot day on its way.

We had a wonderful afternoon watching the boat races, sipping a few cold ones and caught up on the latest melee(gossip) amongst the fishermen.

The afternoon was brought to a sudden standstill by a shootout nearby that involved a few young men that we know. It makes me so angry when these things happen. Scuttlebutt has it that this was a "retaliation" shooting and that it's not finished yet. It's this never-ending circle of violence that mars the reputation of this small piece of paradise I call home that just makes me sick. :-(

My thoughts and prayers to all affected by yesterday's weather and the next couple of days.

Lindy

(sorry for venting)
And one comment for some of the bloggers and not a personal attack. It is a good idea during these types of severe weather events (whether tornado outbreaks or hurricanes) to try and stay on topic as lots of folks actually check in on the blog for pertinent information during these events. It was extremely distracting yesterday afternoon, in the middle of the outbreak, to see continued posts and charts on El Nino............................
1906. StormWx
Its about summer time in FL these days, got that southerly flow.

1907. hydrus
Quoting 1905. weathermanwannabe:

And one comment for some of the bloggers and not a personal attack. It is a good idea during these types of severe weather events (whether tornado outbreaks or hurricanes) to try and stay on topic as lots of folks actually check in on the blog for pertinent information during these events. It was extremely distracting yesterday afternoon, in the middle of the outbreak, to see continued posts and charts on El Nino............................
Yep...
1908. Dakster
Quoting 1905. weathermanwannabe:

And one comment for some of the bloggers and not a personal attack. It is a good idea during these types of severe weather events (whether tornado outbreaks or hurricanes) to try and stay on topic as lots of folks actually check in on the blog for pertinent information during these events. It was extremely distracting yesterday afternoon, in the middle of the outbreak, to see continued posts and charts on El Nino............................


Yep - I even took a backseat to posting yesterday.
1909. hydrus
Quoting 1894. StormTrackerScott:



That's insane largo! I wonder if SPC issues a high risk later.
They are discussing it right now.

IN THE WAKE OF THESE INITIAL STORMS...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS BY AFTERNOON ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM WRN OR MIDDLE TN SWWD THROUGH NRN/CNTRL
MS INTO NERN LA. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INDICATE THAT A PRONOUNCED EML HAS BEEN ADVECTED EWD INTO THE REGION
WITH 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM. THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVERLIE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING
RATIOS OF 13.5-15.5 G PER KG/ WHICH WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG IN AREAS WHERE STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING CAN
OCCUR. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALIGN WITH 50-70 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
POTENTIALLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF INTENSE TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK LATER
TODAY.

THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE CURRENT COLD POOL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER OH INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. WHERE STRONGER
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING CAN OCCUR...THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL NWD INTO SRN
PARTS OF THE MID OH VALLEY.

AN EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS INTO ONE OR
MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER PARTS OF THE MID OH AND TN VALLEYS SWD
TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO
THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ERN GULF STATES WITH A CONTINUING
THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.

...MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...

ANALOGOUS TO YESTERDAY/S EVENTS OVER CNTRL NEB...A SIMILAR SETUP
WILL EVOLVE OVER THE REGION TODAY WHEREBY THE MIDLEVEL COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERLIES A WARMING BOUNDARY
LAYER...YIELDING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. A
PRONOUNCED GRADIENT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST BY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT ALONG THE
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER SRN IA INTO W-CNTRL IL...TO 50-60 KT OVER
CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF IL/IND AND POINTS SOUTH. AS SUCH...MIXED STORM
MODES WILL LIKELY EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING MULTICELL AND
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF A
VERTICAL-VORTICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT.

Floridians in the Peninsula don't face the pervasive major tornado spring threat that people in the mid-west face every year; we do have some destructive spring tornadoes, and in the NE quadrant of land falling hurricanes, but the dynamics for the proliferation of potential E-3's and higher in Spring is not a very frequent event.

With that being said, the Florida Panhandle has been in moderate risk SPC threats over the years in past Spring occasions and some of those "mid-west" dynamics can push further South with the right trajectory.  Point being that Southern Alabama and Georgia, adjacent to the Panhandle, are other potential hot spots with the right system................Camilla, Georgia, just to the North of the Marianna area in Florida, has seen some pretty strong and devastating tornadoes over the years; I was in Marianna several years ago when the last big Camila tornado leveled a school there and we were all commenting on how lucky we were, and how it could just have easily been us, because Camila is not that far away and the entire area was in the moderate risk area that afternoon.
"Despite the clear value of drones in disaster response ..."

Speaking as a pilot, there is a clear danger to aircraft by allowing untrained and unlicensed but enthusiastic people with no knowledge of airspace restrictions - such as airport approach paths - to launch such vehicles into the air.

The air over disaster areas typically is restricted to flight by only aircraft involved in rescue, fire-fighting and damage assessment and is generally coordinated by air traffic control (ATC).

To have unexpected air traffic not under ATC control - be it private planes, or ground controlled drones - blundering about in these critical areas not only can impede disaster response but are collision hazards.

The reason to not go flying your great little drone with the go-pro on it into such areas is not so that you can avoid being fined, but so that you can avoid creating a hazard to aerial navigation which could well result in damage to, or loss of, emergency aircraft and injury or death to the crews.

Please, do not fly drones over disaster areas.

The FAA is right on this one.

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