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More Record Heat Invading the U.S. as Cleanup From Rare February Tornadoes Begins

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 6:04 PM GMT on February 27, 2017

Record warmth slathered the Northeast on Friday and Saturday, the latest chapter in a phenomenal sequence of unseasonal mildness during the last half of February. As of Monday morning, NOAA’s U.S. Records site had catalogued 5857 daily record highs for the month, with only 95 daily record lows. Most of the record lows have occurred across the western U.S., whereas the bulk of record warmth has been east of the Rockies. The warmth has been even more impressive when you look at the ratio of monthly records: 408 record monthly highs thus far, versus just one record monthly low.

Our pick for the most astounding single report of the weekend comes from Vermont’s largest city, Burlington, which soared to 72°F on Saturday afternoon. This broke multiple records by incredible margins:

Previous daily record high:  55°F  (broken by 8 AM EST Sat!)
Previous monthly record high:  63°F, set on Thursday, Feb. 23 (which had broken the longstanding record of 62°F from Feb. 19, 1981)
Previous high for any winter month:  68°F on Dec. 24, 2015

The reading also tied Vermont’s state record high for February, which had been set in Bennington just a day earlier. New Hampshire also set a state record on Friday with 73°F in Nashua, according to WU weather historian Christopher Burt. Other all-time state records for February set this month include Oklahoma (99°F at Magnum on Feb. 11) and Wisconsin (72°F at Janesville and Boscobel on Feb. 22, with multiple stations breaking the previous state record of 69°F).

Record February warmth extended last week into Canada, where Nova Scotia recorded their warmest February reading on record, 20.0°C (68°F) at Greenwood on February 25, 2017 (previous record: 19.5°C set at Windsor Martock on 20 Feb 1994 and at Margaree Forks on 28 Feb 2000.) Toronto’s Pearson Airport set its all-time record for February with a temperature of 17.2°C (63°F) on February 23, 2017 (previous record: 14.9°C (58.8°F) set on Feb. 23, 1984.) Thanks go to Maximiliano Herrera and Christopher C.. Burt for the Canada info.


Figure 1. Many locations across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. are on track to achieve their warmest February on record (red “1”) for rankings compiled across the period Feb. 1-26. Image credit: Southeastern Regional Climate Center.

More record-warm mildness expected in eastern half of the U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday
Last week’s warm weather ended with a bang across eastern New York and New England on Saturday, as a sharp cold front sent the temperature plummeting more than 30°F in just a few hours. However, record-warm temperatures of 30°F or more above average are expected to invade a large portion of the U.S. again on Tuesday and Wednesday, thanks to a resumption of the jet stream pattern that brought last week’s record warmth.


Figure 2. Departure of surface temperature from average as predicted by the 00Z Monday, February 27, 2017 run of the GFS model for 7 pm EST Tuesday, February 28, 2017. Record-warm temperatures of 30°F or more above average are expected over a large portion of the eastern half of the U.S. Note also that another remarkable surge of warm air is predicted to pass over Greenland and into the Arctic, which has seen record-low sea ice extent this winter due to repeated incursions of warm air. Image credit: Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.


Figure 3. Leaf data compiled by the National Phenology Network show that vegetation is running three weeks ahead of average as far north as Kansas City, MO; Columbus, OH; and Philadelphia, PA. Image credit: U.S. National Phenology Network.

Spring is already 3 weeks ahead of schedule
Spring is already three or more weeks ahead of schedule across much of the U.S., and in Washington, D.C., is 22 days ahead of schedule, according to the USA National Phenology Network. These estimates were made using nature’s calendar—for example, when flowers bloom, trees begin to leaf out, and birds build their nests. According to a 2015 study by Allstadt et al., this year’s early arrival of spring will be typical by the year 2100. By that time, assuming a business-as-usual approach to burning fossil fuels, spring will arrive, on average, about 23 days earlier it does in the present climate. Over the past thirty years, spring has come an average of 3 - 5 days earlier across most of the U.S., when comparing the period 1991-2010 vs. 1961-1980 (Figure 4.)


Figure 4. Over the past thirty years, spring has come an average of 3 - 5 days earlier across most of the U.S. (when comparing the period 1991-2010 vs. 1961-1980.) Image credit: Climate Central.

Springtime warmth a classic signal of U.S. climate change
With a few exceptions, warm temperatures are becoming more likely year round as a result of human-produced greenhouse gases, but the signal appears to be especially strong during the months of meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere (March through May). Snow cover across the hemisphere has shown little significant trend over the months from autumn through January, but there has been a distinct decline in snow cover over recent decades from February through June, as shown in monthly analyses from the Rutgers Snow Lab. “We’ve known for over a decade now that climate change is variably advancing the onset of spring across the United States,” reports the National Phenology Network.

Warmth that comes too soon in late winter and spring can be thoroughly enjoyable for us humans, but it can be devastating for crops and ecosystems that depend on reliable seasonal signals, as Bob Henson discussed on NPR’s “Weekend Edition” on Sunday. A case in point is the Great March Warm Wave of March 2012, which produced readings between 85°F and 90°F as far north as Michigan and southeastern Canada. Fruit crops burst into bloom across Michigan, only to be decimated by a more seasonable late-April freeze. Damages to apple, blueberry, grape, peach, and cherry crops totaled more than $200 million across Michigan alone, leading to the state’s worst crop failure on record.

Rare February tornadoes pummel the Northeast
Tornadoes aren’t super-common east of the Appalachians and north of the Mason-Dixon line at any time of year. During winter, they’re almost unheard of. Yet at least three tornadoes developed in Saturday’s burst of severe weather. Massachusetts experienced its first February tornado on record, as a damage survey on Sunday confirmed that an EF1 twister packing top winds of 110 mph swung along a 5-mile path across the towns of Goshen and Conway between 7:18 and 7:25 pm EST. The twister developed at the leading edge of an eastward-moving, fairly linear severe thunderstorm. Only one injury was reported, but downtown Conway experienced substantial damage, with many trees and power lines down. “Several people that we spoke to heard a tell-tale roaring sound and immediately sought shelter in their basements. It was very fortunate that nobody was killed in this event,” reported the National Weather Service office in Taunton, MA. Official tornado statistics extend back to 1950, but in a separate database assembled by Theodore Fujita and the University of Chicago that goes back to 1916 (published in the book “Significant Tornadoes 1680-1991”), there are no tornado reports from Massachusetts for February.

In Pennsylvania, only four tornadoes (two of them just last year) had been reported in any February prior to the EF2 powerhouse on Saturday that swept just east of the heavily populated Wilkes-Barre/Scranton corridor. After a damage survey conducted on Sunday, the NWS/Binghamton, NY, office placed a Facebook photo album online with a number of photos and analyses of the twister. It was clearly generated by a supercell thunderstorm--the type more common in the Midwest and Great Plains--with a prominent hook echo and very strong rotation evident on Doppler radar. Top winds of 120 mph were reported along a 12.8-mile-long, 500-yard-wide path. Two homes were extensively damaged and 28 others experienced at least some damage, but no injuries were reported. At least 1,000 trees were knocked down. Although the twister’s path ended very close to Lake Scranton, it was never classified as a waterspout, since it originated as a land-based tornado within a supercell thunderstorm.

One other twister struck on Saturday: an EF1 tornado confirmed about 2 miles north-northwest of La Plata, Maryland (the town devastated by an F4 tornado on April 28, 2002). This EF1 tornado generated top winds of 90 mph along its 8.4-mile-long, 125-yard-wide path. No injuries were reported, and damage was generally minor. This was the eighth February tornado in Maryland since reliable records began in 1950, reported the NWS office in Sterling, VA.


Figure 5. The large tree that crushed this truck was felled by an EF2 tornado that moved through Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties, Pennsylvania, on February 25, 2017. Image credit: Dennis Macheska and Jeffrey LaCoe, via NWS/Binghamton.


Figure 6. Path of the EF2 tornado in northeast Pennsylvania on February 25, 2017. The tornado roughly paralleled Interstate 476, moving just 2-3 miles southwest of the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton corridor. Image credit: Patrick Favola and NWS/Binghamton.

Non-tornadic storms also had a noteworthy impact in unusual places over the last few days. According to a weather.com wrap-up of the week’s wild weather, the damaging winds experienced in eastern New York on Saturday were the farthest-north severe reports in New York State on record for February. A severe storm produced wind damage in southeast Michigan on Friday--only the sixth day since 1950 with severe weather reported in the state of Michigan during February.

Multi-day round of severe weather expected early this week
More severe weather is likely over the next several days as warm, moist air again surges northeastward ahead of a potent upper-level trough swinging through the eastern U.S. As of Monday morning, the NWS Storm Prediction Center had placed a slight risk of severe weather for Monday across parts of northeast Texas. Any supercell that forms could spit out large hail, with high winds and a small risk of tornadoes in storms that push eastward through the region along a warm front into northern Louisiana. The severe threat will ramp up considerably on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a region of enhanced risk for Tuesday over and near northern Arkansas, and on Wednesday from northern Mississippi and Alabama into central eastern Tennessee and Kentucky.

Models are in some disagreement on storm development mode for Tuesday, but SPC notes that any tornado that develops across northeast Arkansas could be a strong one. By Wednesday night, severe storms packing high wind could make it all the way into the Washington-to-New York corridor, especially if warm, unstable air makes it back into the region soon enough. “I’m concerned about Wednesday evening,” meteorologist Steve Sosna (WNBC/New York) told me. “The trajectory of the surface low is very favorable for severe weather around here.”

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters



Figure 7. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, February 28 (top) and Wednesday, March 1 (bottom), from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.

Heat Severe Weather Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks guys! Prayers go out to tornado victims!

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service San Diego CA
927 AM PST MON FEB 27 2017

CAC073-280515-
/O.NEW.KSGX.FA.Y.0022.170227T1727Z-170228T0515Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
San Diego CA-
927 AM PST MON FEB 27 2017

The National Weather Service in San Diego has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
San Diego County in southwestern California along and west of the
mountains...

* Until 915 PM PST Monday

* Satellite imagery at 9 AM PST showed an enhanced area of moisture
and potentially heavier precipitation offshore, moving toward San
Diego county. This is expected to increase the rainfall rates
across the County later this morning, and continue into the
evening. The accumulation of steady moderate to locally heavy
rainfall will likely result in areas of flooding along streams and
creeks, low water crossings, poorly drained intersections, and in
urban areas where runoff is impeded.

* As the rain accumulates, runoff will increase along with river
levels, particularly later today and this evening. Of greatest
concern will be The Tijuana Valley, the San Diego River through
Mission Valley, the Santa Margarita River through Camp Pendleton,
and other creeks and streams along the Interntional border.

It is indeed raining at my house.....since about 5am

Looks like I'm going to need to replace my Ambient weather station, sensor has malfunctioned causing the batteries to go out every 2 weeks. Unbelievable. Not even a year in and pile of junk...also the fact the rain gauge malfunctioned within 3 months of buying it. For $58 I'll just buy the outside station to replace it.

If looking for PWS, It's a piece of junk don't buy it.


Ambient Weather WS-2095 Wireless Home Weather Station
Thank You Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson; starting with the warm spells for the Arctic which scientists were alarmed about back in October (for the upcoming Winter), through today, this has been a remarkable start to the year in terms of heat records in the Northern Hemisphere.............And the early Spring/crop freeze issue is a very real issue for many agricultural areas in the mid-latitudes. I went fishing Saturday morning on the Gulf Coast with "spring" SST's ahead of schedule by about 6 weeks for my particular location. As as I noted a few minutes ago on the prior blog, global equatorial SST's appears to be up as well.........................Between a melting-warming Arctic to the North, and warmer SST's around the Equator, the mid-latitudes are caught in quite the squeeze play as the jet stream continues to meander about as the temperature differentials lessen between the North and South.

Wifi weatherbridge costs $200, that's what gets your station online out to the world on the internet. Hopefully any weather stations I buy in the future are compatible with that Wifi weatherbridge.
Quoting 3. RitaEvac:

Looks like I'm going to need to replace my Ambient weather station, sensor has malfunctioned causing the batteries to go out every 2 weeks. Unbelievable. Not even a year in and pile of junk...also the fact the rain gauge malfunctioned within 3 months of buying it. For $58 I'll just buy the outside station to replace it.

If looking for PWS, It's a piece of junk don't buy it.


Ambient Weather WS-2095 Wireless Home Weather Station


Buy it from Amazon, they will take it back or refund your money rather easily...

Pretty much just Soo Cal today

I have to agree that spring is three weeks early, at least here in Chicagoland, not the three days shown in that map, above. (Which is 1991 to 2010)


edited
Quoting 6. bryanfromkyleTX:




Just past the 1 year mark...
The Global Warming due to Humans burning fossil fuels continues, unabated.



US is going to burn up this summer probably
I'm hoping you-all in Texas don't get another drought and heat wave.
SPC AC 271557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST AR...AND NORTHWEST LA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms will be possible today over parts of Texas and
northwest Louisiana. Other strong storms will affect portions of
the Arklatex region and Lower Mississippi Valley.

...TX/LA...
Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough axis extending from
western KY southwestward into central TX. Lift ahead of this trough
has resulted in a few showers and thunderstorms to develop over
central TX. The air mass ahead of the storms is moist and
moderately unstable, with afternoon MLCAPE values expected to range
from 1000-2000 J/kg. Relatively steep mid level lapse rates and
favorable deep-layer shear values suggest the risk of discrete
supercells capable of large hail. A remnant surface boundary
extends from northeast TX into central LA. Enhanced shear in
vicinity of this boundary causes some concern for an isolated
tornado or two later today if a storm moves into this zone.

...LA/MS...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible farther east along the
boundary into southern LA and southern MS. Weaker thermodynamic and
wind parameters suggest only a marginal risk of severe storms in
this area, but an isolated severe hail or wind report cannot be
ruled out.

..Hart/Leitman.. 02/27/2017

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1822Z (12:22PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/HomeWeather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us






And in terms of the current convective outlooks for the rest of the week, the Conus jet is in a perfect position to supply some additional vorticity across the Mid-West as warmer E-Pac and Gulf flow shoots up:


/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE17.GIF

Quoting 11. RitaEvac:

US is going to burn up this summer probably


Yes. It is only February and an AC inspection would be in order. We have 3 weeks of winter left, if you can believe that.
History repeating. (Originally posted by barbamz)

Link
Quoting 8. ChiThom:

I have to agree that spring is three weeks early, at least here in Chicagoland, not the three days shown in that map, above.


We have crocuses blooming and tulips popping in Southern Wisconsin. This warmth is several standard deviations beyond stupid warm.
For today and thru Mardi Gras tomorrow,
NWS New Orleans/Slidell


Previous discussion... /issued 343 am CST Mon Feb 27 2017/ 

Short term...

An upper level jet couplet will briefly reside over the area
creating some additional forcing aloft today. The prime period of
the strongest lift will exist from now through the mid-afternoon
hours. Forcing should begin to diminish through the late
afternoon and evening hours as the jet couplet shifts away from
the area, and the region comes under the influence of increasing
subsidence and negative vorticity advection.

No significant low level feature is noted to serve as a focus of
convective initiation today, but the highest Omega and greatest
over instability looks to be over the northern third of the
forecast area. SBCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 j/kg and MLCAPE
values of close to 1000 j/kg are expected across a large portion
of southwest Mississippi and the Baton Rouge region this morning
and early afternoon. Fortunately, wind shear will be somewhat
limited across the area. The strongest shear will be located over
the same area with the highest instability where 0-6km bulk shear
of 50 to 55 knots could occur. Given the shear and instability
values noted, some stronger storms could develop over the north
and northwest parts of the forecast area. An isolated severe
thunderstorm could develop, but the overall threat is limited at
best. If severe storms develop, mid-level lapse rates of around
7.0c/km would support some hail development. The 0-6km shear value
of around 50 knots would also support some strong wind gusts
coming from any severe storm. Farther to the south and east, the
threat of severe storms is basically nil due to a lack of decent
shear and less overall instability.

The increased subsidence and negative vorticity advection over the
area will persist through tomorrow. The biggest result from this
subsidence will be a drying and warming of the mid-level airmass
resulting in the production of a fairly strong mid-level cap. This
cap will effectively limit cloud development during the day
tomorrow, and as a result most of the forecast area is expected to
remain warm and dry tomorrow. Highs will easily climb into the
lower to middle 80s which is near record territory. Only the far
northern part of the County Warning Area in southwest Mississippi may see enough
weakness in the cap to allow for isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Any convection should dissipate by Tuesday evening
as instability decreases with the loss of daytime heating.

Wednesday will be a day of transition as a strong long wave trough
moving through the plains and into the Midwest and northeast will
drive a fairly strong cold front through the forecast area. Strong
low level forcing along the front combined with increased positive
vorticity advection aloft will favor the development of showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day on Wednesday as the front
sweeps through the area. There will be a limited threat of severe
thunderstorms on Wednesday mainly due to continued steep mid-level
lapse rates and decent SBCAPE of around 1000 to 1500j/kg.
Directional shear values will remain limited, but 0-6km speed
shear should support some tilting of updrafts and the development
of a few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon. Shear values once again will be highest over the
northern third of the cwa, and this area will have the highest
risk of a potential severe thunderstorm developing. Temperatures
will remain quite warm ahead of the front, and daytime highs are
expected to climb back to near 80 degrees.

Conditions will gradually improve Wednesday night in the wake of
the front as a drier and more stable airmass moves in. However,
some lingering low level cloud cover and showers could affect
coastal portions of the forecast area through the overnight hours.
Temperatures will also begin to cool dramatically behind the front
with lows dipping back into the 40s and lower 50s Wednesday night.
Quoting 12. ChiThom:

I'm hoping you-all in Texas don't get another drought and heat wave.


The Houston area has not gotten any rains like California has, but it has been a wetter winter than the previous winters of late. So far, so good.

Almost all of the state is looking good, for now.
For those interested, a Parade schedule for tomorrow, in most areas outside New Orleans as well.


I will be streaming a live link in my Patrap Entry beginning around noon CDT tomorrow. We are on the Metairie Parade route.

2017 Parade Schedule


Krewe of Bacchus last night in New Orleans. Bacchus Gator is a Hugh, Bigly, Crowd Favorite every year.

Quoting 21. Patrap:

For those interested, a PArade schedule for tomorrow, in most areas outside New Orleans as well.


I will be streaming a live link in my Patrap Entry beginning around noon CDT tomorrow. We are on the Metairie Parade route.

2017 Parade Schedule


Krewe of Bacchus last night in New Orleans. Bacchus Gator is a Hugh, Bigly, Crowd Favorite every year.




Galveston's is PG rated, more family oriented.

Quoting 22. RitaEvac:



Galveston's is PG rated, more family oriented.




You're thinking of the French Quarter. No Parades roll there .

Mardi Gras is a Family event.

Always has been. It is the Masking ,the tradition along the Routes.

If you exposed yerself on a Parade route from a float to a crowd,or in the street you'd be under da Jail.

Please, if you havent a clue, don't offer one.

Your moral ground is clay.

Krewe of Bacchus 2017 rolls in New Orleans: See Mardi Gras parade photos

Some nice rainfall totals for Soo Soo Cal thru 10am PST

Link
Quoting 23. Patrap:



You're thinking of the French Quarter. No Parades roll there .

Mardi Gras is a Family event.

Always has been. It is the Masking ,the tradition along the Routes.

If you exposed yerself on a Parade route from a float to a crowd,or in the street you'd be under da Jail.

Please, if you havent a clue, dont offer one.

Your moral ground is clay.




Yes, you're right
Latest Euro shows a Cat 4/5 making landfall in Madagascar somewhere near Fenoarivo in nine days.

Quoting 27. elioe:

Latest Euro shows a Cat 4/5 making landfall in Madagascar somewhere near Fenoarivo in nine days.




ooofh'
Quoting 11. RitaEvac:

US is going to burn up this summer probably


Possibly, ... I was just thinking that with the newer forecasts of a monstor el nino next fall, how much more bizzare next winter will be compared to this one. Ostensibly la nina should have made this winter a colder one, (which, ironicly it WAS around here December and January were colder than normal and MUCH snowier than normal), but it has been apparently quite mild across the eastern 2/3 of the country. So it may well have masked a certain amount of warming.

Plus the CO2 and methane just keep chugging on up~
Quoting the blog entry

"

Tornadoes aren't very common east of the Appalachians and north of the Mason-Dixon line at any time of year. "


This is simply not true. They occur most years during the warm season in that region and there is a summer maximum in PA and southern New England with points south of the Mason Dixon line getting fewer in midsummer because of lack of dynamics. Here in DC we have a spring/early summer maximum with a second mode in September/October. We're mostly safe from this stuff in winter.

But perhaps no longer :-(

(We had one in LaPlata Saturday and there have been a few February ones the past few years.)

The statement that they are exceedingly rare in the winter months is correct and acknowledged unnervingly remarkable for this new age.


I should add that I have complete respect for Dr Masters and Dr Henson and this is just a single sentence mistake of the kind any human makes.
Quoting 29. MontanaZephyr:



Possibly, ... I was just thinking that with the newer forecasts of a monstor el nino next fall, how much more bizzare next winter will be compared to this one. Ostensibly la nina should have made this winter a colder one, (which, ironicly it WAS around here December and January were colder than normal and MUCH snowier than normal), but it has been apparently quite mild across the eastern 2/3 of the country. So it may well have masked a certain amount of warming.

Plus the CO2 and methane just keep chugging on up~


I haven't seen those forecasts yet. I'll check back in June after the boreal spring predictability barrier passes
Quoting 29. MontanaZephyr:



Possibly, ... I was just thinking that with the newer forecasts of a monstor el nino next fall, how much more bizzare next winter will be compared to this one. Ostensibly la nina should have made this winter a colder one, (which, ironicly it WAS around here December and January were colder than normal and MUCH snowier than normal), but it has been apparently quite mild across the eastern 2/3 of the country. So it may well have masked a certain amount of warming.

Plus the CO2 and methane just keep chugging on up~

And despite a La Nina, California has had El Nino-like precip. Clearly, something has changed.
However, and on the current US tornado stats for 2017, we were 125 tornadoes above
the national 3-year average for January this year..........................That is a remarkable stat for this year:

TORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH FRI FEB 17 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0836 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2017

...NUMBER OF TORNADOES... NUMBER OF KILLER
TORNADO DEATHS TORNADOES
..2017.. 2016 2015 2014 3YR 3YR 3YR
PREL ACT ACT ACT ACT AV 17 16 15 14 AV 17 16 15 14 AV
--- ---- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
JAN 141 - 17 28 4 16 20 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0
FEB 33 - 102 3 42 39 0 7 0 0 2 0 4 0 0 1
MAR - - 86 11 20 38 - 0 1 0 0 - 0 1 0 0
APR - - 141 171 129 146 - 1 2 35 12 - 1 1 8 3
MAY - - 216 381 130 242 - 2 7 0 3 - 2 5 0 2
JUN - - 86 184 286 185 - 0 0 2 0 - 0 0 2 0
JUL - - 107 115 85 102 - 0 0 4 1 - 0 0 1 0
AUG - - 90 45 33 55 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
SEP - - 38 17 41 31 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
OCT - - 20 40 73 45 - 0 0 1 0 - 0 0 1 0
NOV - - 50* 99 23 63 - 5 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 0
DEC - - 18* 83 20 39 - 0 26 5 10 - 0 6 2 2
--- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SUM 174 - 971 1177 886 1041 20 17 36 47 29 3 10 13 14 8
We in Soo Soo Cal have our own mini AR

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1111 AM PST MON FEB 27 2017

CAC073-280515-
/O.CON.KSGX.FA.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-170228T0515Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
San Diego CA-
1111 AM PST MON FEB 27 2017

...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
915 PM PST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY...

At 1110 AM PST, National Weather Service radar indicates widespread
rain continuing across San Diego County with the heaviest rain
producing rainfall rates of 0.30 inches per hour from Escondido
south to the Mexico Border. Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 1.5
inches are expected through this afternoon with locally higher
amounts. The continued rain and runoff will cause widespread urban
flooding and flooding of low water crossings.

The flooding includes Spring Valley at Quarry Road, Escondido Creek,
low lying roads in Fashion Valley on the rising San Diego River,
Dairy Mart road and creeks flowing into the Tijuana River, and
possible Cole Grade road along the San Luis Rey River. Flooded roads
will cause closures and delays as more rainfall continues over
saturated grounds through this evening.

The San Diego River is expected to reach around 11 feet late this
afternoon and early evening. Higher rainfall rates of 0.50 inch per
hour are expected this afternoon and evening which could cause flash
floods. A flash flood watch is in effect for the potential of
dangerous and unusual flooding.

Some locations that will likely experience flooding include...
Chula Vista, Oceanside, Carlsbad, El Cajon, Vista, Encinitas,
National City, La Mesa, Poway, North Park, Point Loma, Hillcrest,
Midway District Including Lindbergh Field, Downtown San Diego and La
Jolla.
Wrote a Fuego blog earlier today. Has video of the eclipse and Volcano Fuego which was erupting over the weekend. Also has a bunch of pictures from Tour de Kennedy Space Center. Bringing a few weather related pics from that.. Started in some heavy fog. Here is was about to burn off but still hiding the VAB. Note the tree down on the left from Matthew. Like around here alot of the hanging widow makers have come down but other signs of damage linger.

Like this beach erosion..

& the numerous signs down, especially out past the VAB..
NWS raising rainfall totals for San Diego County from out mini AR



Just about perfectly placed to lower drought conditions still in the state

Updated rain totals thru 4pm PST

Link
Quoting 27. elioe:

Latest Euro shows a Cat 4/5 making landfall in Madagascar somewhere near Fenoarivo in nine days.




Well, I will be in a small coastal town just south of Toamasina from March 7-9 so I am watching every model run like a hawk! The high-resolution Euro has this thing strengthening to 911 mb with peak surface gusts of 152 kt (that's 175 mph!).



No, I am certainly not going to chase this one ;-)
I think I would have to cancel half of my Madagascar trip if this scary run verifies. But the Euro has had huge forecast busts in this area this season and no other model is currently showing anything like this...
On a potential Indian Ocean/Madagascar storm, no invests are declared at the moment by JTWC but that is one of the strongest/meanest looking tropical waves that I have seen along the IO ITCZ right at about 73E; that is not the one referred to in the Euro run 9 days out:









Keep in mind that 2016, 2015 and 2014 were low-tornado years. So were 2013 and 2012. And that a tornado season starting strong early does not necessarily mean the whole season will be a strong one. For one thing, I see global and northern-hemisphere warming not making tornaoes worse, but shifting them away from summer, towards cooler times of the year.

Quoting 33. weathermanwannabe:

However, and on the current US tornado stats for 2017, we were 125 tornadoes above
the national 3-year average for January this year...............That is a remarkable stat for this year

Quoting 40. Klipperweather:

Keep in mind that 2016, 2015 and 2014 were low-tornado years. So were 2013 and 2012. And that a tornado season starting strong early does not necessarily mean the whole season will be a strong one. For one thing, I see global and northern-hemisphere warming not making tornaoes worse, but shifting them away from summer, towards cooler times of the year.





1999 was the highest January count and this Jan is coming in at second highest:

According to data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, during January, there were 138 preliminary tornado reports. This is almost four times greater than the 1991-2010 average of 35 for the month. Tornadoes during January occurred mostly across the Southeast from Texas to South Carolina. Tornado activity during January is highly variable with some Januaries being very active and others having few or no observed tornadoes. Since reliable records began in 1950, there have been seven years in which no tornadoes were reported during January. The most active January was in 1999 when over 200 tornadoes were reported. Depending on the final tornado count, the January 2017 tornado count will likely be the second most on record for the month. There were 20 tornado-related fatalities during January, also the second most on record for the month and the most since January 1969. There were more tornado-related fatalities in January 2017 than in all of 2016.
Guy Walton:
‏@climateguyw

Wow! #February 2017 #record daily high to low count of 5857 to 95 = #ratio of 62 to 1 in U.S. through 2/25. #climatechange #globalwarming

Excellent blog today thanks for info
Quoting 30. georgevandenberghe:

Quoting the blog entry

"

Tornadoes aren't very common east of the Appalachians and north of the Mason-Dixon line at any time of year. "


This is simply not true. They occur most years during the warm season in that region and there is a summer maximum in PA and southern New England with points south of the Mason Dixon line getting fewer in midsummer because of lack of dynamics. Here in DC we have a spring/early summer maximum with a second mode in September/October. We're mostly safe from this stuff in winter.

But perhaps no longer :-(

(We had one in LaPlata Saturday and there have been a few February ones the past few years.)

The statement that they are exceedingly rare in the winter months is correct and acknowledged unnervingly remarkable for this new age.


I should add that I have complete respect for Dr Masters and Dr Henson and this is just a single sentence mistake of the kind any human makes.


Thanks, George--point well taken. I thought carefully about the phrase "not too common", in that they don't happen every day. While this is true, there are certainly dozens of tornadoes in a typical year in that region outlined. I've gone ahead and changed "Tornadoes aren't that common..." to "Tornadoes aren't super-common..."

Bob
Invest 95S is up for area around 73E that could be a formidable TC in the next few days.

95S INVEST 170227 1800 6.0S 73.0E SHEM 15 1006

PAH Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
130 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022- MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Jo hnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey -Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-M cCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trig g-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McL ean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
130 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight. Some storms may
produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail, especially
from around midnight on through daybreak Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance of severe thunderstorms from late in the day
Tuesday, through Tuesday night across the entire four state area.
A lingering chance of strong to severe storms is possible early
Wednesday morning mainly across the Kentucky Pennyrile region.

There may be multiple regions of storm development, leading to
more than one event chance, first late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening, then again overnight, as a cold front moves in
late.

All severe weather modes will be possible, including large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes. If certain parameters come together,
we cannot rule out a strong tornado or two from southeast
Missouri, into southern Illinois and far west Kentucky.
Storm
motion should be east northeast around 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed Tuesday afternoon through
early Wednesday morning.



Fortunately, we have fortified our positions. Meaning that if the Storm God comes to my location, then we will be ready.

Remember:

"The Best Offense is a good Defense," -Rogal Dorn, If The Emperor had a Text To Speech Device, Episode 22: Change
Quoting 7. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Pretty much just Soo Cal today





no its not we pick up 0.13" of rain today and some mt snow this AM so its not about S CA today N CA got some weather this AM has well in the foot hills and mts
At the very least, there's no denying that February tornadoes are indeed a rarity north of the Mason-Dixon line and east of the Appalachians:



Not unheard of, to be sure. But not a commonplace, either.
I wish we could get some of that weather in Vegas. I can't wait for summer when we get back over a 100.
Quoting 48. Neapolitan:

At the very least, there's no denying that February tornadoes are indeed a rarity north of the Mason-Dixon line and east of the Appalachians:



Not unheard of, to be sure. But not a commonplace, either.


We have secondary peaks as well..in the Fall and Winter here.

But the Recent EF 3 was the worst Tornado strike in New Orleans History.

And thanks to early warning, quick action by all..and time of day as well,no one died.

Truly close to a miracle here, easily.


There will probably be a research paper or presentation on the high numbers for this January (as compared to 1999) and I would be curious to see what conditions were in Jan 1999 in terms of average temps in the South/Lower Midwest both years (1999 and 2017), what the comparative PDO and Enso phases were in each year.  There is no denying that January was warmer than usual across a large swatch of the South this year and the positioning of the Pacific Jet, along with warmer Gulf flow, probably contributed to the higher numbers this Jan.    
Everyone have a safe weather evening; it does look to be shaping up for a very active day tomorrow as we continued to get more rain in Southernmost California today.  See Yall in the am.



45. Tropicsweatherpr


Moderate potential from RSMC Mauritius/Seychelles.
If I had to name this winter, it would be WINO.


Looking pretty warm!
Quoting 33. weathermanwannabe:

However, and on the current US tornado stats for 2017, we were 125 tornadoes above
the national 3-year average for January this year..........................That is a remarkable stat for this year:

TORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH FRI FEB 17 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0836 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2017

...NUMBER OF TORNADOES... NUMBER OF KILLER
TORNADO DEATHS TORNADOES
..2017.. 2016 2015 2014 3YR 3YR 3YR
PREL ACT ACT ACT ACT AV 17 16 15 14 AV 17 16 15 14 AV
--- ---- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
JAN 141 - 17 28 4 16 20 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0
FEB 33 - 102 3 42 39 0 7 0 0 2 0 4 0 0 1
MAR - - 86 11 20 38 - 0 1 0 0 - 0 1 0 0
APR - - 141 171 129 146 - 1 2 35 12 - 1 1 8 3
MAY - - 216 381 130 242 - 2 7 0 3 - 2 5 0 2
JUN - - 86 184 286 185 - 0 0 2 0 - 0 0 2 0
JUL - - 107 115 85 102 - 0 0 4 1 - 0 0 1 0
AUG - - 90 45 33 55 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
SEP - - 38 17 41 31 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
OCT - - 20 40 73 45 - 0 0 1 0 - 0 0 1 0
NOV - - 50* 99 23 63 - 5 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 0
DEC - - 18* 83 20 39 - 0 26 5 10 - 0 6 2 2
--- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SUM 174 - 971 1177 886 1041 20 17 36 47 29 3 10 13 14 8


The overall pattern so far this year has definitely been more conducive to severe weather than the 2012-2016 period. 2008, which ended up being the 3rd busiest year for tornadoes on record behind 2011 and 2004, has been a clear analog throughout much of this winter. It definitely feels like we won't be treading the record low tornado activity line this year.
Old English word of the day: frēorig - freezing, chilled, frigid, frozen; chilled with fear or sorrow, trembling, sad. Pronounced "fray-oh-ree"
Should be a excellent Mardi Gras with Sunshine and warm temps in the mid 80's.




Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Diego CA
355 PM PST MON FEB 27 2017

CAC065-073-280515-
/O.NEW.KSGX.FA.W.0006.170227T2355Z-170228T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
Riverside CA-San Diego CA-
355 PM PST MON FEB 27 2017

The National Weather Service in San Diego has issued a

* Areal Flood Warning for...
Southern Riverside County in southern California...
San Diego County in southwestern California...

* Until 915 PM PST

* At 317 PM PST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
widespread rain continuing across San Diego County and parts of
Riverside County. 1 to 2 inches of rain has occurred and an
additional 1 to 1.5 inches is expected. Rainfall rates will
increase to 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour through 8 pm. Many creeks
and stream are running bankfull or inundating low lying water
crossings. Additional rainfall will create dangerous small river
and creek flooding including on the San Diego River. Escondido
Creek and the Tijuana River and its tributaries will have dangerous
high water flows. High flows will near flood stage on the Santa
Margarita River.

Flooding is especially dangerous at night and curing commute hours.
The water is deeper and moving faster than it appears. When flooded
turn around dont drown. A flash flood watch remains in effect for
the potential of life threatening rapid rising waters.

* Some locations that will likely experience flooding include...
Chula Vista, Oceanside, Carlsbad, Temecula, El Cajon, Vista,
Encinitas, National City, La Mesa, Poway, North Park, Point Loma,
Hillcrest, Midway District and Downtown San Diego.
61. vis0
Quoting 5. RitaEvac:

Wifi weatherbridge costs $200, that's what gets your station online out to the world on the internet. Hopefully any weather stations I buy in the future are compatible with that Wifi weatherbridge.

Quoting 11. RitaEvac:

US is going to burn up this summer probably
1) odds are not as a whole[entire USofA).  Just like for more than 2 decades areas of the world  have been "burning up" but for whatever reason many people only concentrate as to their small area even though Earth is the true home or forget...Remember Australia burning up yet a few years later their politicians took advantage of the short memory (i think created by the so many ways to remove oneself from reality) and changed the laws of that country to role back what would help lower the odds of future "burnings up"

2) how will you tell its too hot if the PWS you got by mailing in 50,000 bazooka joe  pieces of cartoons on wax paper" is broken? 
        Make yer own PWS...an egg (fries, its  too hot), cup of water with cellophane over it  (see droplets, its too humid),  piece of bread (becomes toasted by 9AM its too dry) and THINK you have a side-dish eggs, water for java and toast...can a modern PWS do THAT.

Where is the PWS donation page i can afford a dollar. (don't think of it nativesun asking for a PWS donation when funds would really go for a water proof decal of tongue sticking out at a symbol of a hurricane for your boat)
Quoting 47. thetwilightzone:




no its not we pick up 0.13" of rain today and some mt snow this AM so its not about S CA today N CA got some weather this AM has well in the foot hills and mts


I meant REAL rain...check these figures mostly from San Diego, Riverside and Orange County!

Link

Some amazing rainfall totals.........0.13? ok call me wrong.

Quoting 62. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I meant REAL rain...check these figures mostly from San Diego, Riverside and Orange County!

Link

Some amazing rainfall totals.........0.13? ok call me wrong.




am talking about my area not S CAL oh that storm will cost you $2,000 in cash please
Radar from Bakersfield CA about 200 miles north of San Diego....Local radar from NWS which I am unable to post has mucho yellow returns on it.....it is not light rain. 2.36" of rain from this storm at my house so far.

Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice

Seeing a lot more enhanced trades over the Pacific in the forecast. Atmosphere is not aligning into a state yet that advances El Nino.
Quoting 65. HurricaneFan:

Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice

Seeing a lot more enhanced trades over the Pacific in the forecast. Atmosphere is not aligning into a state yet that advances El Nino.
Maybe a modoki is developing.
Quoting 66. Andrebrooks:

Maybe a modoki is developing.


whats not even get going with that
Quoting 64. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Radar from Bakersfield CA about 200 miles north of San Diego....Local radar from NWS which I am unable to post has mucho yellow returns on it.....it is not light rain. 2.36" of rain from this storm at my house so far.




hey getting 0.14" of rain is a nic change from seeing 2 too 5" of rain that we been seeing the last few weeks so .014" of rain i take any day
Quoting 66. Andrebrooks:

Maybe a modoki is developing.

As of right now, the warmest anomalies are centered in the far eastern Pacific, which is not typically a Modoki El Nino.


I do think El Nino is possible but I don't expect it to be strong. However, it is not climatogally favored to see this happen. I expect us to have at least 10 storms this Atlantic season with some pre-season development definitely possible.
For those of you who haven't seen the video, here's again. I recovered a jewel for me. Video footage from Hurricane Hugo 1989 and his effects at Villa Fontana, Carolina Puerto Rico. I was almost 12 years old and spent the Hurricane at my uncle's house. Sorry, I don't know how to post the video on the blog but here's the youtube link: Link
Meanwhile, AK is nice and cold... By Friday the high temp of the day will still be below zero....

And clear skies. Don't know how I will handle seeing the sun again.
These Soo Cal storm numbers are getting kind of scary!

Thru 7pm PST...kinda Nor Cal numbers!

Link

San Diego River getting closer to doing some major flood issues, it needs to get to 13'-15' in Mission Valley part of San Diego.

I incidentally stumbled upon StormW's blog today and found this:

"Based on my analysis of current forecast soundings through F5 DATA, it was noted that large discrepancies between the NAM-WRF and GFS models existed. Given these discrepancies, it was my determination to use the GFS forecast sounding information, as it correlated better to the SPC outlook maps, based on aerial coverage. The NAM-WRF model in no way depicted the severe thunderstorm categorical areas in analysis."

I can't believe I ever respected him. No wonder I stopped reading his blog posts after awhile. I find it funny he even had a following here before. "This model is bad because it doesn't agree with the SPC?" lolwut? Who actually says that?
Quoting 38. Carnivorous:



Well, I will be in a small coastal town just south of Toamasina from March 7-9 so I am watching every model run like a hawk! The high-resolution Euro has this thing strengthening to 911 mb with peak surface gusts of 152 kt (that's 175 mph!).



No, I am certainly not going to chase this one ;-)
I think I would have to cancel half of my Madagascar trip if this scary run verifies. But the Euro has had huge forecast busts in this area this season and no other model is currently showing anything like this...


Nah, go chase it. Get in the eyewall. What do you have to lose? Oh wait... I mean. xD
Quoting 69. HurricaneFan:


As of right now, the warmest anomalies are centered in the far eastern Pacific, which is not typically a Modoki El Nino.


I do think El Nino is possible but I don't expect it to be strong. However, it is not climatogally favored to see this happen. I expect us to have at least 10 storms this Atlantic season with some pre-season development definitely possible.


SST anomalies in the Nino 1.2 region should theoretically be far more capricious and less semipermanent than SST anomalies farther west. That's why ENSO status is officially defined in terms of the Nino 3.4 (Hawaii) region specifically. SSTs are still warm in the 1.2 region, but they've cooled a little relative to a month ago, implying a reversal of the winds in that area. Based on what I know of ENSO behavior, we should see the warming in this region largely reverse over the next couple months, but I dunno about us seeing a Modiki El Nino or not; it's tricky. 1.2 is definitely more important for Caribbean wind shear though, which should be important to anyone regardless of whether you want landfalls or not, because that is by far the one area of the Atlantic most likely to produce landfalls. Problem is, it's way more sensitive to changes, so it's difficult to predict SST patterns within it except for on relatively short timescales.
Quoting 74. Dakster:

Meanwhile, AK is nice and cold... By Friday the high temp of the day will still be below zero....

And clear skies. Don't know how I will handle seeing the sun again.
you be fine go out stand in front of it look up and feel the energy that flows from it
Where is Bob tonight? Missing his links.
Quoting 80. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

you be fine go out stand in front of it look up and feel the energy that flows from it


Im sending my snow to you... I think 2' ought to do it unless you want more?
Quoting 74. Dakster:

Meanwhile, AK is nice and cold... By Friday the high temp of the day will still be below zero....

And clear skies. Don't know how I will handle seeing the sun again.
At least the days are a lot longer now :)
Quoting 83. BaltimoreBrian:

At least the days are a lot longer now :)


Over 12 hours, supposedly. Let you know when the 4 mile thick cloud cover leaves.
Quoting 82. Dakster:



Im sending my snow to you... I think 2' ought to do it unless you want more?
send all you want it's March it will melt now as soon as the sun comes out
Arctic sea ice extent has declined for 4 days in a row. Unusual in February. This could be the earliest peak in at least 15 years, although it's still too early to be sure.

February 23 13,839,032 sq km
February 24 13,807,125 sq km -31,907 sq km
February 25 13,772,990 sq km - 34,135 sq km
February 26 13,763,520 sq km - 9,470 sq km
February 27 13,719,038 sq km - 44,482 sq km

Source: JAXA (ADS-NIPR) link - look on right side 7th link down. Clicking JAXA as a new tab downloads excel spreadsheet of daily arctic sea ice extent figures. Clicking on the link does not bring up the spreadsheet for me--must be done as a new tab.
Quoting 84. Dakster:

Over 12 hours, supposedly. Let you know when the 4 mile thick cloud cover leaves.
I thought it wasn't 12 hours until right before the March equinox. Do you mean 10 hours?
From the hills of south Salem in the Willamette Valley, Oregon. I did some posting when we were getting snow and freezing rain back in January but nothing exciting to report about the weather here lately. We had a few snow flakes coming down over the past 4 days but never close to sticking.

Anecdotally* it feels like we've had a colder and snowier December and January that normal around here. February has been wet and cool. We've had some heavy rains but the flooding has mostly been minor and in places you expect to get flooded pretty regularly. Highs lately generally in the mid 40s (F) and lows in the mid 30's. The buds are finally starting to swell on the vine maple in my front yard and the daffodils started poking up last week.

*I've lived in the Willamette Valley for most of my 64 years.

Reading the blog makes me grateful that I don't live where tornadoes and hurricanes are relatively common. Our weather is mostly boring with the occasional heavy rain and flooding and very occasionally big wind storms. I don't think Oregon even averages one tornado a year. I can't recall hearing about more than 5 or 10 of them in the past 30 years that I've lived in Salem.
Quoting 87. BaltimoreBrian:

I thought it wasn't 12 hours until right before the March equinox. Do you mean 10 hours?

He's probably counting from when it's light enough to see not actual sunrise/sunset.
Quoting 87. BaltimoreBrian:

I thought it wasn't 12 hours until right before the March equinox. Do you mean 10 hours?


It's almost 24 hours of light, but the sun is above the horizon for 20 hours by then. give or take a little.
Today astronimical twilight started at 5:40am and ends at 8:45pm...

On April 18th, we never get darker than astronomical twilight...
I would not want to be in a poor Third World country during or in the aftermath of a major hurricane.

Madagascar is experiencing rapid population growth and lots of land clearance in the hills. Even more land clearance than population growth would suggest because large areas have been leased to other countries for agricultural production. In fact, Daewoo of South Korea was going to lease half the arable land in Madagascar (evicting the people who lived on those lands) but popular outrage scuppered that deal. But there are still huge areas still leased to foreign countries and corporations for agriculture, and those leases are expanding. A lot of deforestation going on which increases erosion and flooding.

Population of Madagascar

1970 6,766,000
1980 8,691,000 +28.5%
1990 11,633,000 +33.9%
2000 15,664,000 +34.7%
2010 20,779,000 +32.7%
2017 25,054,000 +20.6%
I remember now that twilight in the polar regions lasts so much longer. At the equator, especially near the equinoxes, it is amazing how quickly darkness falls and dawn brightens.
riverrat544, I've never been to the Willamette Valley, but I hear it is beautiful.
Quoting 94. BaltimoreBrian:

I remember now that twilight in the polar regions lasts so much longer. At the equator, especially near the equinoxes, it is amazing how quickly darkness falls and dawn brightens.


Since I moved up here, I have had to get used to the fact that Twilight lasts a long time. Sunrise/Sunset in South Florida was a few minute event and here it's hours long....
It is the last sane Hour before Mardi Gras Day itself arrives. As we have for 11 years now, we toast our loved ones departed this year, those long gone, and those who perished August 29th,2005. Lundi Gras ceremony now gives way to Mirth, Drink, and celebration.

Hail Rex, ( Pro Bono Publico )
Hail Zulu,
Hail Argus 2017

Quoting 96. BaltimoreBrian:

riverrat544, I've never been to the Willamette Valley, but I hear it is beautiful.


Get to the Columbia Gorge if you do go. Well worth it.
Quoting 103. Grothar:




Last year we went from winter right to summer. This year we have had spring instead of winter,
CFS forecasting the end of the world.
Quoting 78. KoritheMan:



Nah, go chase it. Get in the eyewall. What do you have to lose? Oh wait... I mean. xD

Lol...maybe I will do some cyclone chases in the future but not in Madagascar and certainly not with a Cat 5 as my first storm ;)

There is still a huge uncertainty about the track of this cyclone. Most are predicting no impacts on Madagascar at all but the 00z Euro again has a Cat 4/5 making landfall just north of Toamasina.



The latest UKMET is also quite strong...




* ESTOFEX - European Storm Forecast Experiment: Link
* Current satellite loop - via keraunos.org (airmass):

Thunderstorms accompanied by strong wind yesterday in N France (numerous wind gusts recorded around 90-110kph). Around 5000 left without power this morning, several instances of minor structural damage as well. Fresh snowfall in the Alps. Today should bring more of the same.

- 9.5m/31ft waves recorded by buoy 62001 (Bay of Biscay) earlier this morning.

Prepping for (Potentially) 100-Foot Nazare - Jamie Mitchell on the eve of the Atlantic's biggest swell this winter
Surfline - Feb 28.
* Webcam HD/Surf report, Nazare (Portugal): Link

An article from the future ;-) (published on March 15, 2017 - but 10 h ago according to Google):
Spanish lettuce shortage likely to continue into March
Vegetable shortages in Europe are likely to continue well into March or beyond after freak weather conditions early in the agricultural year prevented the planting of seedlings to replace ruined crops. (...)
BoM issues El Nino Watch.

--------------------------------

El Niño WATCH: likelihood of El Niño in 2017 increases

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, recent changes in both the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, and climate model outlooks surveyed by the Bureau, suggest the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 has risen. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has been upgraded to El Niño WATCH, meaning the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 is approximately 50%.

All atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently within neutral thresholds. However, sea surface temperatures have been increasing in the eastern Pacific Ocean and are now warmer than average for the first time since June 2016, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been trending downwards.

BoM ENSO Update

Quoting 105. Gearsts:

CFS forecasting the end of the world.


Lol. This model clearly has some issues.
Today's SPC outlook:





Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM AR TO
IL/IN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OK TO
OH...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TX TO WESTERN PA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from portions of the
lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley Tuesday. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are possible.

...Discussion...

Ridging appears to be responsible for delaying meaningful convection
across the MS Valley late this evening. However, LLJ is beginning
to increase across MO/IL and isolated thunderstorms are evolving
within a corridor from the Bootheel of MO into central IL. This
activity should gradually expand in areal coverage as warm advection
lifts north toward the Great Lakes region. Given these trends,
there is increasing confidence that much of the southern
Plains/lower MS valley will remain convection-free into the
afternoon hours. As a result, significant boundary-layer recovery
is expected into the OH Valley prior to frontal passage.

Late evening model guidance continues to suggest a corridor of
strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from the southern
Rockies, into the Great Lakes with 500mb flow expected to increase
in excess of 80kt by early afternoon across western portions of the
severe risk area. Large-scale height falls will overspread the
Mississippi Valley and several convective scenarios may ultimately
evolve within a broad moistening warm sector.

1. Warm-advection corridor (northern IL):

Strengthening LLJ over IL will aid northward advance of higher
quality air mass as surface dew points rise through the 40s into the
50s as far north as northern IL by late morning. Warm advection is
expected to induce scattered strong/severe thunderstorms early in
the period as warm front lifts northward in advance of the primary
surface wave. Convection may be aided by a weak mid-level
disturbance embedded within the stronger southwesterly flow.
Initial activity will be elevated in nature and hail is the primary
risk with these storms.

2. Warm sector (AR/MO/IL):

28/00z sounding from OUN exhibited a steep-lapse-rate environment
with substantial low-level moisture. Strong capping and
neutral-weak subsidence will allow this air mass to advect northeast
such that surface dew points should rise into the lower 60s across
much of the warm sector south of I-70. Breaks in cloud cover during
the day should allow surface parcels to approach their convective
temperatures from eastern OK into southwestern MO by mid-late
afternoon. Latest thinking is isolated supercells may evolve well
ahead of the cold front along nose of a secondary branch of LLJ that
will strengthening across AR during the day. It's not clear how
much storm coverage will be noted across this region but
environmental shear and increasing instability/buoyancy favor robust
supercells. Forecast soundings suggest very large hail could
accompany this activity and a few strong tornadoes are possible,
especially if discrete structures evolve as it appears they may.

3. Cold front:

Large-scale forcing will contribute to a convectively active cold
front by early evening as the wind shift surges into an increasingly
moist/unstable air mass from eastern IA into northern MO.
Thunderstorms are expected to mature into a strong squall line that
will surge east across the mid MS Valley into the OH valley as 500mb
flow increases to near 100kt by 01/12z. Damaging winds should be
noted with this frontal convection and tornadoes may also be
embedded along the line. Eastward momentum should easily allow this
activity to spread across much of OH by sunrise Wednesday morning.

Red Alert. Load all torpedo bays, ready phasers.
BOM ENSO update and its impressive folks!

El Niño WATCH: likelihood of El Niño in 2017 increases

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, recent changes in both the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, and climate model outlooks surveyed by the Bureau, suggest the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 has risen. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has been upgraded to El Niño WATCH, meaning the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 is approximately 50%.

All atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently within neutral thresholds. However, sea surface temperatures have been increasing in the eastern Pacific Ocean and are now warmer than average for the first time since June 2016, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been trending downwards.

Seven of eight international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate steady warming in the central tropical Pacific Ocean over the next six months. Six models suggest El Niño thresholds may be reached by July 2017. However, some caution must be taken at this time of year, with lower model accuracy through the autumn months compared to other times of the year.

El Niño is often associated with below average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and warmer than average winter–spring maximum temperatures over the southern half of Australia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence on Australia from December to April. Current outlooks suggest a neutral IOD may persist until the end of autumn.

Strong to potentially a Super El-Nino in place for next Winter if these trends continue as many of these ensembles are near or over 2C for nino 3.4.
Good Morning Folks; big day today for a large portion of the US in terms of severe weather potential as noted by the post of convective outlooks below.

Here is the current look and note the overall jet flow and the fact that t-storms are already firing this early in the morning.





And now we wait on the storm report dots over the course of the day to see where the strongest cells start to develop and move towards:


last3hours Reports Graphic



Latest ENSO model projections from the Aussie's

The potential of another Super El-Nino would have a long lasting impact across the Globe considering we just came out of a Super El-Nino in early 2016. This could put Global temperature in a frenzy this year and next year.
And the maximum surface vort is from the low currently situated between Kansas and Iowa which is one of the main drivers today in the watch areas out ahead of it:




The first severe t-storm warning of the am is up on the border between Kentucky and Indiana; you can see that particular cell on the WV loop below.


And we can just declare the ice watching season over in the Great Lakes.

No ice. All that open water could portend another hot and humid summer, plus more toxic algae blooms in Lake Erie.
And here are the current SST's in the Equatorial East Pacific as noted by the El Nino watch; that will create a lot of fuel for the start of the E-Pac season on May 15th:





Quoting 120. RunningTrauma:



And we can just declare the ice watching season over in the Great Lakes.

No ice. All that open water could portend another hot and humid summer, plus more toxic algae blooms in Lake Erie.


Lower Lake levels too due to increased evaporation. This year is turning into an inferno across the Eastern US with March likely mirroring February.
Today would mark the 18th day this month in Orlando of 80 plus. No nights in the 30's, only 4 nights in the mid to upper 40's, and the rest in the 50's and 60's for lows. Absolutely insane! Sea surface temps across SE FL are already at 80 and further north the sea surface temps are 70 to 75 from Daytona to Melbourne. Blue Springs State park has registered a record low number of Manatees this year due to the much warmer water temperatures.
Mid to upper 80's today across FL with temps possibly getting over 90 across the interior tomorrow.

Quoting 122. StormTrackerScott:



Lower Lake levels too due to increased evaporation. This year is turning into an inferno across the Eastern US with March likely mirroring February.


It is unlikely departures from normal in March will be as high as February. That would make a March comparable to 2012 here in the Mid Atlantic, our record warm one.

We are setting up for a severe weather event tomorrow in the Mid Atlantic with a strong cold front, very strong winds aloft, moderate (1000+) CAPE and surface temperatures near 80F. I am like certain other nervous nellies on this blog when it comes to severe weather.
Quoting 123. StormTrackerScott:

Today would mark the 18th day this month in Orlando of 80 plus. No nights in the 30's, only 4 nights in the mid to upper 40's, and the rest in the 50's and 60's for lows. Absolutely insane! Sea surface temps across SE FL are already at 80 and further north the sea surface temps are 70 to 75 from Daytona to Melbourne. Blue Springs State park has registered a record low number of Manatees this year due to the much warmer water temperatures.


The only comparably insane February in the DC area is 1976 when I was a senior in HS here. The word fits that month's weather and this month's

Kelvin/Celsius scale. Source: karstenhaustein.com/climate.
Suspicious-looking area.
* Current sea surface temperature anomaly (Arctic)
Quoting 125. georgevandenberghe:



It is unlikely departures from normal in March will be as high as February. That would make a March comparable to 2012 here in the Mid Atlantic, our record warm one.

We are setting up for a severe weather event tomorrow in the Mid Atlantic with a strong cold front, very strong winds aloft, moderate (1000+) CAPE and surface temperatures near 80F. I am like certain other nervous nellies on this blog when it comes to severe weather.


CFS is now showing a record warm March across the East. Very warm over North Pole too. This warmth is beginning to have severe implications and a lot of this was due to the 2015/2016 Super El-Nino as a lot of heat was released during that event and now potentially another Super Event a year after we just had one will only release even more heat into the atmosphere.
Quoting 105. Gearsts:

CFS forecasting the end of the world.



Dun dun dun!
The current ITCZ/Monsoon belt is really active across the Southern Hemisphere and it will slowly lift above the Equator over the next few months as we head into Northern Hemisphere summer; another reason we might see a very active E-Pac season this year starting in May which might also help with some early season Atlantic season storms out of the Western Caribbean region if sheer cooperates. SST's are already just about there........................





I think Fatal Decision\Auto Destruct by Ron Jones fits today's mood in terms of severe thunderstorms.

Everyone in the Enhanced Risk area should be at Red Alert.
Lows in the 70s this morning in Houston with highs in mid 80s. For the first time since 1950 Houston never had lows in the 30s during the month of February.

February will go down as the hottest February in recorded history in Houston, TX.


Could see some breaks in the clouds later today. If that happens, then MOAR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GOM is holding heat, oceans are warming acting has heat engine.

With rising seas, and mass populations living near coasts, expect chaos to begin in coming decade. Economic fallout will go along with it.
Quoting 135. RitaEvac:

GOM is holding heat, oceans are warming acting has heat engine.

With rising seas, and mass populations living near coasts, expect chaos to begin in coming decade. Economic fallout will go along with it.

Strangely enough I have not been able to get out to sail these past 4 weekends. Water levels have been too low for my 8 foot keel. My boat is at Seabrook Marina.
95S INVEST
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 28, 2017:

Location: 8.2S 69.9E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb


Given this early Spring warmth, it is an early kind of start to the severe weather season before we get to hurricane season.................One week at a time from here on out with the potential severe weather set-ups from warm E-Pac and Gulf flow, with the peak period around May, until we get to June 1st and see what starts cooking in the tropics. Lots of weather to watch between now and then.


/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE14.GIF



It's about 55° at my house, going up to about 61° today, then as low as 25° tomorrow night.
We will probably get some windy conditions, but the chances of a tornado are low for this area. (Chicagoland)
Etna is erupting:
Video: Mount Etna is erupting and it looks spectacular
The Local.it - Feb 28.

Etna Volcano - Italy: webcam Link
From last Friday...

Saturday - Warm weather, high of 75 in Millersville, PA. To our west, a EF-1 tornado, just to our north, 100 mph straight line winds. On campus, 49 mph wind gust and pea sized hail. I rode out the storm in the exposed open area of a parking garage roof, taking a great picture of a shelf cloud.

Monday morning - 30 degrees, heavy frost on campus.

Currently - Warm weather again, with highs 60-64 expected.

Wednesday - More severe weather on tap, Astro travels to Philly hoping storms stay away from US Women's Soccer v Germany.

Friday morning - low 30s and chance for light snow.

Winter never showed up. Season snow total is at like 5". That's worse than my home's average in TN.
Quoting 139. ChiThom:

It's about 55° at my house, going up to about 61° today, then as low as 25° tomorrow night.
We will probably get some windy conditions, but the chances of a tornado are low for this area. (Chicagoland)


Expecting 20s this weekend in DC area after near 80 Wednesday. 20s are typical for early March but our DC vegetation is , consistent with Dr Masters' post, about three weeks advanced.

No spring peepers this year so far. They need moisture and it's extremely dry here. No woodland puddles at all for them to breed in. Some areas got heavy thunderstorms Saturday 2/25. Some (hello!)
missed out. Another chance tomorrow 3/1 but with this comes an unnerving threat of severe weather.. looking worse than the 2/25 setup. Can't believe I'm talking about a severe weather threat the last day in February (yeah tomorrow is 3/1.. okay)


Quoting 136. Greg01:


Strangely enough I have not been able to get out to sail these past 4 weekends. Water levels have been too low for my 8 foot keel. My boat is at Seabrook Marina.


We have had winds that are generally out of the north and this pushes the water out of the bay. I have seen sand bars exposed during January and February when a strong cold front comes blowing in. Makes it tough to launch a boat at many of the boat ramps when this happens. The average depth of the bay is not that deep to begin with. The average depth is only about 8'.
Quoting 142. Astrometeor:

From last Friday...

Saturday - Warm weather, high of 75 in Millersville, PA. To our west, a EF-1 tornado, just to our north, 100 mph straight line winds. On campus, 49 mph wind gust and pea sized hail. I rode out the storm in the exposed open area of a parking garage roof, taking a great picture of a shelf cloud.

Monday morning - 30 degrees, heavy frost on campus.

Currently - Warm weather again, with highs 60-64 expected.

Wednesday - More severe weather on tap, Astro travels to Philly hoping storms stay away from US Women's Soccer v Germany.

Friday morning - low 30s and chance for light snow.

Winter never showed up. Season snow total is at like 5". That's worse than my home's average in TN.


Winter isn't over in March up there. But maybe this year :-(

I got into the low 20s Monday morning in College Park MD, lower than forecast. Near 80 tomorrow. Tornado in LaPlata 30 miles south. I put plants under cover because of hail risk but it missed my home. Hail covered the ground solidly in Waldorf. Back to seasonable weather Friday/Saturday.
Quoting 145. georgevandenberghe:



Winter isn't over in March up there. But maybe this year :-(

I got into the low 20s Monday morning in College Park MD, lower than forecast. Near 80 tomorrow. Tornado in LaPlata 30 miles south. I put plants under cover because of hail risk but it missed my home. Hail covered the ground solidly in Waldorf. Back to seasonable weather Friday/Saturday.


Oh I know lol. Two years ago we picked up our big snowstorm right before spring break began in March, 12". Last year we had a coating of snow in April. This year just doesn't seem to be the year for snow.
Forecast for the Southern Plains today -

Red flag warnings

Winds 45 to 50 mph , with gusts to 60, blowing dust
Quoting 88. riverat544:

...Reading the blog makes me grateful that I don't live where tornadoes and hurricanes are relatively common. Our weather is mostly boring with the occasional heavy rain and flooding and very occasionally big wind storms. I don't think Oregon even averages one tornado a year. I can't recall hearing about more than 5 or 10 of them in the past 30 years that I've lived in Salem.


Hi Riverat544- Our weather on the Olympic Peninsula is about the same as yours. I've lived near DC, and experienced a cyclone in Vanuatu, so I understand what people write about here when they have exciting weather events. In this area, we hear thunder about twice a year, for comparison.

It's really interesting to read what's happening in the rest of the world. I appreciate everyone's stories and info.
Up to Moderate Risk. Stay safe those who live in the areas highlighted.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Valid 281630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MO...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
INDIANA...WESTERN/NORTHERN KY

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO OZARKS TO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED AREA FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from portions of the
lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley through tonight. Strong
tornadoes will be possible, especially across portions of the lower
and middle Ohio Valley. Otherwise, large hail and damaging winds are
expected.

...Portions of the MO Ozarks through the middle MS Valley and the
Ohio Valley region...

A prominent warm sector will continue to build
northward/northeastward across the region through tonight, as a
midlevel speed maximum advances from the southern Rockies
east-northeastward toward the Ohio Valley region. As lower/middle
60s dewpoints also develop northward/northeastward, an expansive
area of MLCAPE around 500-2000 J/kg -- aided by steep midlevel lapse
rates surmounting returning moisture -- will support vigorous
convective development. With warm-sector-coinciding effective shear
around 40-70 kt, a widespread area of conditional significant-severe
potential will exist -- especially from late afternoon into the
overnight hours. Present indications are that clusters of storms
will be evolving from eastern parts of the central/southern Great
Plains northeastward to the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan by
late afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of a baroclinic band --
with this activity spreading eastward into tonight. Confidence has
increased in more widespread severe-hail potential with this
activity, including significant severe hail. Open-warm-sector
convection will likely evolve along a low-level jet through parts of
the Ohio Valley tonight as additional moistening occurs. Effective
SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 will support tornado potential with evolving
supercell clusters. This includes the potential for nocturnal
significant tornadoes, and tornado probabilities have been
increased.

...Portions of the Southeast...
Destabilization along the southern/eastern flanks of convection over
the TN Valley region may support some increase in convective
intensity with storm clusters advancing toward the southern
Appalachians. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany this
activity.

..Cohen.. 02/28/2017

I've not followed Wunderground is some time. But I plan to when hurricane season starts in few months.

I have read that there has been some problems with the site in recent months. Today I noticed I'm getting an alert from my AV (anti-virus) program, Kaspersky that this site can not be trusted. I have to click 'continue' several times to read postings.

Anyone know why this is? Thanks.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2-27-2017; Climate Change: Jet Stream Flow Into So. CA Re-Routed to South; Spigot Turned Off




Link

Quoting 153. WU-806742:

2-27-2017; Climate Change: Jet Stream Flow Into So. CA Re-Routed to South; Spigot Turned Off
Two questions:

1) What are you smoking?

2) Is its recreational use allowed in your state?

I ask, as that seems to be the only possible way to explain such a complete dismissal of science and concomitant embrace of a garbage-laden conspiracy theory.

Just wondering...
SIgh. Typical East Coast writing.

"Most of the record lows have occurred across the western U.S., whereas the bulk of record warmth has been east of the Rockies. "

Yet the headline reflects an East Coast look, once again ignoring us on the West Coast who are dealing with record power bills due to the cold. But if those records lows were happening on the East Coast, the headline would be screaming about it.

It is what turns me off every damn day reading any media at all. So Atlantic focused, with just a nudge here or two about the millions of us who live on the Left Side.