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More heat; Gulf of Mexico disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:32 PM GMT on July 23, 2006

The heat was unrelenting yesterday across the Southwest U.S., where most of California and Arizona set new high temperature records. The 99 degrees in downtown Los Angeles beat the old record of 96 set in 1960, and the suburb of Woodland Hills hit a record 119. All the cities in California's Central Valley set records: 109 degrees in Sacramento, 111 in Redding, and 112 in Red Bluff, Stockton and Modesto. San Francisco's 87 degrees easily beat the record of 81 for the date, set back in 1917.

In Phoenix, this morning's low temperature was 97 degrees, which broke the all-time record for highest low temperature ever recorded in that city (96, set on Jul 15, 2003). Tucson's low of 89 Saturday morning was its highest low temperature in recorded history, as well. The temperature topped out at record 116 in Phoenix yesterday, and 121 in nearby Gila Bend.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather continues over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear is over 20 knots in this region, which is too high to allow development today. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting this shear to be 15 knots or higher over the next few days, and usually one needs wind shear to fall to the 10-15 knot range for development. However, the NHC is playing it cautiously and has put a Hunter airplane on call for Monday, if needed. I'll be surprised if this flight happens.


Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Enjoy another quiet weekend in the tropics, everyone!
Jeff Masters

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

GOOD BOY DR M LOL
now i am happy with the update
littlefish, I get what you are saying, but this is not 2005, its 2006, storms that develop from waves that came from africa, like any normal year, is for August and September.

June and July, is left for old cold fronts, upper level lows and disturbances from off central america, like any normal year.
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 12:29 PM AST on July 23, 2006.
When is the plane scheduled for BOC? Any thoughts on this disturbance?


Monday. And it as a chance to develop, if it stays over water and wind shear decreases.
I got you both times 456, thanks!
However, the NHC is playing it cautiously and has put a Hunter airplane on call for Monday, if needed. I'll be surprised if this flight happens.

the tropics is full of suprises.
here it is from the Hurricane Hunter himself. Watch his blog for updates:

Posted By: LRandyB at 7:44 AM EDT on July 23, 2006.
Well, I got to work only to discover NHC canceled us for today and tonight. We still have possible tasking into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow.


You can get first hand from him. And check out his pictures from Beryl and others.

dr masters you really need to adjust your wu shear map it shows light to moderate shear nothing in the 20 knot range is this link messed up by the way 456 this center could form further north or east in more favorable area 456 look at wu shear map bob said last night it was not accurate well why dont they fix it im more inclined to trust bob lol is the steering flow out of the sw seems this thing would have to move more n or e where shear is less any opinions
right saint, the NHC wouldnt say that wind shear will become favourable if they knew it was to remain high.

Remember the NHC loves to say "Upper level Winds are not conducive for developemnt"

So i'm holding onto the NHC....but 98L cloud tops have warmed.

but still at 1009 mbar, 25knots (30mph)

cloud tops have warmed.

456 dos that mean it is geting stornger as wel talk?
Cold cloud tops mean strengthening.
12. WSI
"WSI you need to check the Fermi labs SST charts, they are much more detailed than what you are looking at on that link. The temnps in the Gulf are warmer than they were last year at this time...."

So you are telling me NOAA is totally wrong? The maps I looked at showed the total opposite of what you an SJ are claiming. Detail or not, the conclusion can't be THAT far off. Sure, maybe in spots here and there it may be warmer. Then again in spots its cooler. Overall everything I have seen shows its cooler.

Even the anomalies show the water is right where it should be in the areas you describe. Heck, the east coast was even cooler than normal for a while. Yes, I know this doesn't compare them to last year alone, but the point is the SST's are not as hot as some are making them out to be. Turtle had a blog describing the warm water in the northern Atlantic. Pretty interesting.

Even in the maps that SJ has in his blog, the east coast looks cooler over all.

I just think too much is being made of SST's right now being "warmer".


Cold cloud tops-strong storm
Warm Cloudtops-weak storm

In other words 98L has decrease in convection.

oh well bye bye 98L
hi, i am on the south cental La coast they say the high should be rebuiding over us again in the next couple of days, so that should keep away any thing coming this way.
Taz, not so fast, 98L isnt over....convection just simply decrease......it could come back.

why are we comparing 2005 SST's to 2006 SST's, we all know 2006 will not repeat 2005.
ok 456
19. WSI
"why are we comparing 2005 SST's to 2006 SST's, we all know 2006 will not repeat 2005."

Occured in the older blog before this one.

I agree with you about the comparisons. I just think too much is being made of the SST's. I don't see them as warm as others here.
I expected the cloud tops to warm up, it happens on a daily basis as the sun starts beating on them. In an unorganized storm like this invest it's normal. Looks like some convection is beginning to build in the west end of the BOC, but I expect it to really fire up again a well after sunset as long as Emilia keeps the blob shoved out over water.
we'll eventually get a hurricane be patient
Posted By: TropicalTerror at 1:38 PM AST on July 23, 2006.
this sucks i want a damn hurricane, BOOO mother nature, BOOOO


there is one in the eastern pacfic
if people are feeling so now, imagine how they was in 2004.
Terror, be careful what you wish for. It just might come back and bite you!

A tad off topic, but relevant to the build up on our coastal areas at risk for hurricanes:
Too Many People on the Shore
lol there has been several in the east pacific. Possibly one more to be added soon (EMILIA)
the boc blob has a chance if it can survive until the shear dies down.
so, the story recently has been a lots o' Saharan dust over the Atlantic. this has probably shown up as a thread in a previous entry, but what does everyone think about global warming moderating its own impacts on tropical systems?

as rainfall becomes more variable, combined with the already expanding Saharan desert (as a result of overgrazing and other factors), will added dust prevent more storms from forming, even though water temperatures may be higher? Dr. Masters, have analyses of tropical storms (their frequency and their intensity) included Saharan dust coverage or density as a covariate?
surface low forms at 21 and 94 slowly moving north from w/c and marine disscusion nhc
the conditions are setting up for a storm in the gulf this week
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averages/06jul/gm_06jul22_2341_mult.png

This is the chart from yesterday.
http://srbdata.jhuapl.edu/d0043/avhrr/gm/averages/05jul/gm_05jul22_0335_mult.png

This is last years chart for the Gulf.
As you can see, the SST in the Gulf are higher than they were last year and the year before, when we had Cat 5 Ivan.
yeah thats not good
All tropical blobs must die!


Think I saw a model run form this into a storm.
I would like to report a very very heavy downpoor over the Whittier, CA area. Lots of lightning. A lor of rain fell in a few moments. I took a lot of pics of it and a video.
tropical downpours over northeast florida with 50 mph winds
The 12Z cmc looks a bit scary for the Bahamas. The 12z GFS keeps that cape verde very weak, disipating in Fl. Also spits some lows out into the EP as the cmc. Nogaps is quiet, with nothing new forming. Ukmet is on board with NOGAPS. All 4 doesn't develope the GOM blob. (scroll right & click FWD on those links) GFDL doesn't have it's run out on this page though I noticed it up in Master's entry. GFDL normally preforms badly when 2 storms are close together as in this invest & Emilie. When you watch each storm's track & notice where the other storm is, it will almost always be differnrt depending on which storm run your looking at.
I have changed my computer and did not copy all of my links. So does anyone have the links that show the pictures from space to show damage from all of the hurricanes like Rita Katrina etc?
earthlydragonfly~ NASA, GISc & here's the link I keep around it's NOAA's aerial photos.
oops that last one for looking at all storms should be Link.
Stormw, I think most scientists agree that the upper upper atmosphere may actually grow slightly COOLER with Global Warming because less heat would be allowed to escape that far up and would remain trapped nearer the surface, so the idea that very high level atmosphere would be warmer may not be accurate. The opposite may actually be true. I just rememebr hearing that from some guru, but don't recall where.
Wow, that wind shear is fierce in the Gulf, thought I remembered someone saying it was dying down?? Looks like it is full-force right now. Blowing the crap outta that Western Gulf stuff, making it look less like a white glod and more like a wispy gray streak getting combed back over as far as the yucatan. Amazing stuff, that wind shear. Storm killer.
Interesting link prickly plant insect. :) Here's a quote.

The most alarming assault on our way of life comes at the hands of powerful interests in Washington and Columbia, who want to open S.C. coastal waters to oil and gas drilling and exploration.

But the crowds keep coming. Some 500,000 new residents will move to our coast in the next 30 years. More than 30,000 new homes are in some stage of planning, permitting, or construction in the tri-county area alone. Where will those people live, work, and recreate, and what impact will they have on this fragile coastal ecosystem?


The biggest effect would come from the people brought to the area by that "alarming attack" by the interests of the rest of the country.

If they changed the title of the article to "Too Many People" and left it at that I'd be happier. :(

LOL!
49. WSI
"As you can see, the SST in the Gulf are higher than they were last year and the year before, when we had Cat 5 Ivan."

Yeah, I saw your charts before you posted them. Mentioned I compared them in SJ's blog. Noticed you left the east coast out. :) Gulf looks slightly warmer according to your charts. East coast does not. Noticed a site with more updated anomaly info. Didn't realize the dating in the one I posted previously. Little warmer overall, but again these compare to the climate norms, not last year. Here you can find anomalies for both years. 2005 looked warmer over all.

Guess its a matter of perspective. Believe the sites you want, but I will stick with NOAA on this one.

Also, keep in mind that just because a CAT 5 crossed the waters with those temps before, DOES NOT mean it will happen this time. As said on here before, SST's are not the only factor in storm strength.
Wind shear is strong over the bay of campeche not the gulf.
Brownsville forecast discussion describes shear as "negligible".
That was a good article bug, I think FL faught off the drilling for now, but I heard oil tankers are starting to frequent Cape Canaveral. LA is going to allow additional drilling in exchange for marshland rebuilding money (talk about dealing with the devil). What was the point of that speech about getting this country off oil, seems all this legislation just past total contradicts the promises.

BEIJING (AP) China's death toll from Tropical Storm Bilis rose to 530 on Saturday, more than a week after the storm hit, as officials in southern Guangdong province and the Guangxi region reported an additional 48 deaths, state media said.
Oklahoma City was so hot Friday that a portion of Interstate 44 buckled, forcing the temporary closure of two lanes. From an article on the St Loius storms. There's been more than several deaths from this heatwave.
55. SLU
href="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html" target="_blank">Link

The atlantic wave/low seems to be aquiring a more substantial circulation this afternoon. If thunderstorm development ensues then satellite classifications may follow suit soon after. (invest 99L that is)
56. SLU
oops...
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.7.22.2006.gif

According to this NOAA chart the temperatures are above average in most areas near the US......no?
in the United States, the loss of human life in hot spells in summer exceeds that caused by all other weather events combined, including lightning, rain, floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes.

Link
If you click my blog you can see a video of the thunderstorm that came through my area. That same storm beleave brought some rain to the downtown LA area.
Afternoon all. I see we are still debating the Coastal SSTs :)

I would like for someone to explain to me why the AVHRR maps show the warmer waters along the E coast and the N Gulf, and yet there is still some dispute about it. Not just here, but when you compare them with other maps the data just does not add up, as well as some mets talking about the warmer coastal waters. One thing I will say for the AVHRR maps is that they show much more detail then the colored in SST maps.

StormJunkie.com-Models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.
Do these upper level winds play along with high pressure and heat as a general rule. If so, noticing these areas of extreme convection popping up in a few hours all over the place, it may be interesting later in the season when these shear winds should subside.
98L Update
20 knots
1011mbar pressure
very disorganized
Located 20.0N-96.0W
VISIBLE IMAGE
63. WSI
"According to this NOAA chart the temperatures are above average in most areas near the US......no?"

Yeah, but we were talking about 2005 and 2006.

In any case, here are the maps I am looking at.

2006

2005

These have the exact same date. On the previous comparison I was trying to match SJ's dating. Yeah, looks warmer overall in the Gulf, but the east coast... there is no question. Cooler according to those maps. In fact, much of the tropical Atlantic is cooler than 2005.

Everyone just choose the one that makes them happy. :)
456 actually i think the low is further n and e the pressures are lowering in these areas i still think if? this
develops it will probably go further n and e
yeah, saint i see some convection building to the north
66. WSI
"I would like for someone to explain to me..."

What mets SJ? And this isn't the first time I have seen the AVHRR site in a dispute such as this on here. :)

When I pull a map saying the exactly opposite of what you say... pretty obvious why I dispute it. :) I might grant you the GOM temps, but not the east coast.

In any case, I am sure everyone will choose the site they want. I like the AOML site, and will continue to pull my data from it unless I find a reason not to.
Posted By: Weather456 at 1:41 PM PDT on July 23, 2006.
yeah, saint i see some convection building to the north


??????? do you mean 98L 456?
Afternoon WSI, good to see you.

I am not disputing that SST maps differ, just trying to understand why and what is causing the discrepancies. Seems to be a similar situation with shear, as there are often times differing views of shear on various shear maps. I think that a lot of the wind shear map discrepancies can be attributed to different levels and types of shear, which I yet to have a clear understanding of.
anybody have sattelite images of Beryl with radar if possible.
taz, yeah.
Weather456 coool so 98L is looking more happy right now
Emilia is almost a hurricane {70mph}, while Daniel continues to weaken {120}.
No Taz, even though convection is building to the north, it is nowhere near the center and it is very disorganise. The only chance now if it moves north it will encounter very favourable Wind shear and SST.

Wind shear again has increase across the caribbean.

I would think there are better references than the AOML, which is part of the Department of Commerce.
77. WSI
"just trying to understand why and what is causing the discrepancies"

I agree its interesting. I think its a matter of how they are processed. There are only so many sats up there, so the data has limited sources. :)

In any case, I have seen the AOML site used a fair amount (Steve Gregory used it some, and I think I have seen Dr. Master's post it once or twice if I am not mistaken). Other bloggers have used it too. Guess that is the one I am familiar with. The anomalies that I posted seem to reinforce the fact that 2005 was indeed warmer overall. If you look there, it would appear that 2005 had the "warmer" anomalies.

I do like the detail of the site you posted.
the NHC is still holding onto it:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232056
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
: Weather456 wow how mean dos that make for hurricnae evere name storm has be come a hurricane so far
NAM seems to give an area in the Florida Straits a chance to develop off north carolina. Link
doesn't look impressive now, but who knows?
Posted By: Tazmanian at 5:04 PM AST on July 23, 2006.
: Weather456 wow how mean dos that make for hurricnae evere name storm has be come a hurricane so far


I dont quite understand.
82. L5
An interesting question:

Everyone is so very concerned about the surface temperatures - has anyone noticed the temperature gradients aloft?

This is potentially more significant. Further, models on radiation cooling, etc. may be even more strongly leveraged? Does this trigger an ice-age like event?

Earth does remain in some grander equilibrium due to distance from the sun, etc. ...

Anyone have data on what is happening to the tropospheric gradients?
So does the BOC system have a chance at becoming TD 3?
I can't get the latest Naso update to play...that really sucks :( Guess I'll just have to wait for another one...
In my opinion if 98L does not get itself together over the next 24 hours, and organize a LLC further away from shore, the actual area that may be of more concern is the central or western GOM. There will be a weakening frontal trof drapped across the northern GOM, very favorable upper level conditions, the very warm SST's, and pressures are relatively low across the northern GOM.
Posted By: quakeman55 at 5:11 PM AST on July 23, 2006.
So does the BOC system have a chance at becoming TD 3?


one chance: move north into low wind shear.
456

when Tropical Storm Emilia be comes hurricane Emilia how mean would that be for july and is that odd to have this mean i think evere strom we get will be come a hurricne this watch
88. Inyo
Here in California we have been having odd thunderstorms and extreme heat. Thunderstorms aren't rare in the mountains this time of year but the intensity and scope of the ones we had up there this weekend was amazing. Next week may cool slightly but we may actually end up dealing with the remnants of Emilia.
Taz, i see what you mean, EPAC is always the opposite, thats why we only had one storm in July.
Bullish CMC seems to like the wave in the central atl.
Weather456 but why are they seeing so mean hurricne overe there and we have not yet seen one
Taz, upper level winds were very favourable through out July in the EPAC, and the Atlantic, opposite, very unfavourable.

Thats why the EPAC had more hurricanes.

But something I realize in the past weak. Wind shear has increase in the EPAC area, and decrease in the Atlantic.
so would this be that last hurricane for them so that way we culd start talking about the next name storm for us what is the forcast for us oh from now to the 1sr week augst
ouch!!!!! STOCKTON ca is now 114 right now or this about 115 eeeeeek give me some snow man
EPAC storms are Africa Born also Taz. Once some of the waves start forming in the Atlantic Basin you will notice the EPAC die down. All the active EPAC tells you is that conditions are still not favorable in the Atlantic.
Emilia's track, although common. Might tell you something about the Atlantic. I have done no research yet but I will.
seems that 98L, is interacting with some convection in the gulf. Well I'm off until later tonight or Monday.
High Pressure off the Northwest coast also has a big impact on the seasons, which I will also be doing some research on.
SW yes i can see that its vary low
Later 456
456, one thing to keep in mind with wind shear in EPAC is that it has been directionally WITH the movement of the systems, and not in their face (as it is in Atlantic). This may also play a role in shearing. Much less wind resistance when you're running with it rather than against it, even if it is 10 MPH each way...
Guys iam not a big Fan of the CMC model but it has been developing a tropical system for the last day or so.

In my opinion We will have to watch it, the other models have a stronger ridge in place and sends the wave undeveloped into the Carib. or toward Florida. If the CMC keeps developing it and turns out to be correct and the others join but keep a stronger ridge in place it could be a Florida problem.

Here's the CMC from earlier today...

Certainly nobody should stop or change any plans over this run and I'm doubting the CMC at this point. But, it is something to keep an eye on over the next several runs to see if it continues and to see if any other models begin closing off a low from this wave.

If this is the Low they are keeping it along the wave throughout the 72hr forecast period as of this morning..
CMC at 144 Hrs...



Whats up JP...How's your weekened so far?
JP, hey
hurricane23, the CMC model might be referring to the wave located in the central atlantic.
456 whats your thoughts on my thinking about the CMC right now?
Yea 456 this might be the wave...
I agree ith the model, after that wave makes it just north of the islands then it will have a chance.
I agree 23, CMC may be taking the HIGH to lightly. GFS has been pretty good on the weather features, and just the past couple months of the bullish high.
The current dust map
Note, it has changed from 2 days ago.
Taz.....I'd be interested in reading your blog.....but it's so big I don't even want to click on it. Why don't you consider starting a new one after a few hundred posts.
.
.
I'm just an interested observer. No meteorological training. But I will predict something. Now that some blob seems to be developing in the Gulf I predict ST will be back posting within the next 24 hours. And he'll see the thing heading straight to New Orleans.
Yea 456 it looks like the dust has weaken some what towards the islands.
Dust isnt to bad around the central atlantic wave.

Now that some blob seems to be developing in the Gulf I predict ST will be back posting within the next 24 hours. And he'll see the thing heading straight to New Orleans.

STORMTOP, was already on today.
JP i think we have to see if other models jump on board with the CMC.
I brought this up earlier about the gfdl when I mentioned the cmc's scary forecast. Now that the model run is out where you can really see it, I think the point on the gfdl can really be made. When you have 2 storms close to each other the gfdl doesn't do well. check out the run on Emilie. Where is 98L? Other areas of disterbance is pictured. Notice that nothing behind Emilie forms too. Now check out 98L. Man...where'd Emilie go, Daniel is barely there there's a little storm that follows in our ghost of Emilie's wake. More laughable the system doesn't lose but gains much wind speed as it travels over land, maybe losing 10knts over the GA, SC foothills & WNC mountains, gaining again on the way back to the Atlantic where it emerges a hurricane off VA. Seems every time last year, when 2 storms were near by gfdl doesn't take into account what the other storms affects will be on the other. Every time 2 storms are close by it's the model I toss.
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232233
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

this is from the EPAC, outlook.
Note there are no disturbances after Emilia.

If this continues, the Atlantic could be entering an active phase.
i have started a new blog
Tropical Weather Update
Sunday, July 23rd 2006 2:02PM CDT

Disorganized Tropical Disturbance 20 Over Bay of Campeche Drifting Northwest




Showers and thunderstorms associated with Tropical Disturbance 20 have diminished over the Bay of Campeche the last couple hours. Other scattered storms are developing to the east of an upper level trough which extends from southeast Louisiana southwestward to northeastern Mexico. Surface pressure remains relatively high across the Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf and there is no sign yet of a surface circulation developing. Upper level wind shear is moderate across the south and southwest Gulf of Mexico but this wind shear will likely decrease some on Monday and Tuesday. This could allow this disturbance to become better organized and possibly develop into a depression on Monday. We think this system will move slowly to the northwest at about 6 to 8 mph over the next couple days bringing locally heavy rain and briefly strong, gusty winds to the upper coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning possibly spreading northward to the middle and upper Texas coast during the day on Tuesday. Should a tropical depression develop, there appears to be two possible scenarios. The first would be the system would be weak and steered toward the northern coast of Mexico bringing most of the rain into northern Mexico and the lower Texas coast. The second would be the system tracks further to the north and remains over the water possibly strengthening to a tropical storm on Tuesday. In that scenaria the center could move inland along the middle or upper Texas coast as a possible tropical storm late Tuesday or early Wednesday. We continue to keep a close eye on this area but the good news right now is there are no signs of a surface low developing yet.

Meteorologist: Mark Mathiesen
Wow, what a weekend. All was calm a few days ago, now a little 'blob' has popped up in the Bay of Campeche.

Took a quick peek at the satellite and must say, I agree with Jeff, NHC, and WFO's BRO, CRP, and EWX in that this will likely remain just a wave and push on shore near the coast bend of Texas. Shear and it's proximity to land (just off the coast of Veracruz, MEX) appear to be the inhibiting factors for development. The front (more like an axis of instability at this point) over Texas should have little, if any, impact with this system.

If development were to occur, it would likely be in the 36-48 hour time frame and by that time it should be pushing on shore in Texas.

I do not expect anything more than an open tropical wave pushing on shore around the costal bend, then tracking NW into S Central Texas bringing beneficial scattered showers/t-storms to South and Central Texas during the day Wednesday into Wed night.

That's it. Keep your eyes on the ATL as it looks a little more interesting that the B.O.C wave. I give the BOC wave less than 1% chance of developing further.

Ciao!
Guys Unless there is an explosion of convection tonight I see no need for Recon tomorrow in my opinion.
agree 23. NO RECON if it remains the same.
I do enjoy making the maps....I guess we will have to wait.
Where do you get your information? Your radar, maps.
Yea jp i know,Lets see what happens later on tonight with 98L.

Here's a visible loop of 98L.
"Anyone who gives probabilities doesn't know what they are talking about..." Is that so, JP?? I guess NHC and all meterologists do not know what they are talking about. "Tonight, partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers or thunderstorms. Low around 70. NE winds 10-15 MPH." Have you never seen forecasts like this, JP? Evidently not.

And Michael, sorry I didn't go with your 'expert' analysis bringing this to a TS, pushing into SE TX, bringing massive flooding to SE TX and S LA causing destruction and so forth........

If you look at the Cyclone Danger Areas on the NHC website, they don't even shade the region for development so I'd say my analysis is supported more by people who actually know what they are talking about (sometimes) than by an amateur like yourself.
Your digging your own hole JP. Do you never look at forecast points on the NHC website during storms. It'll say:

BROWNSVILLE, TX X X 4 10
CORPUS CHRISTI, TX X X 8 20
HOUSTON, TX X X 2 10
NEW ORLEANS, LA X X 1 3

Probabilites is what weather is about, jackass.
Here is a IR loop...You can see convection is not all that impressive right now.Lets see what happens in the coming hours.


I personally think if the darned wind shear would let up, that this system (BOC) would have a good chance of developing... Weird thing, if you travel a couple hundred miles north the wind shear changes direction (opposite direction) and that would be favorable for development cuz it is a bit more in the eventual direction of the system. So maybe a little move north and east will spark this thing...
Jp, again, NHC DOES issue probabilites for landfall during storms. If you want to know how they come up with them, read the product description. NHC uses probabilities ALL THE TIME! Look at the graphics, look at the tables, look at the discussions.

How can a person be so ignorant!?
beryl caught the experts by suprise, this could do the same
hurricane23, here is one my maps from beryl.

Cool 456.... I like that alot!
jp: "also I remember about oh 10-15 people who made a statement like that last weekend about the system that became Beryl; so that should tell you something right there."

Jp, we also remember that there have been 10-15 little waves that you predicted would become Beryl and never did. I'm glad you are wrong all the time, because if you were right, we'd already be on the M storm. You hype every little wave, and of course you are right occasionally because even a stopped clock is right 2 times per day.
M:"I look at the stuff myself and make my own decision."

and you've been wrong the overwhelming majority of the time. just like JP, according to you we should be on the M storm by now.
456 this is a pick i took of beryl a few days ago.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
How could they know?
Cold blob, I love you so.
Yeah Michael, and that's why you are WRONG far more often than any pro meterologist. If you go against the grain all the time, you'll eventually be right... but being right more times than wrong is what counts..
Where do you get the cool graphics?
beryl looked awesome.
Annnnnnd wx has been warned for hitting below the belt. Meanwhile that cut above Michael's eye needs some attention.
I would prefer that any tropical storm became fish storms. I don't like tropical storms of any kind.
Saying 10-15 people before Beryl well that's pretty broad. Ya'll were in here before that extra tropical storm was forming(a few days infront of Beryl), that moved up the east coast, sayin Beryl is gonna happen. Ya had alot of nay sayers & I was one. But once the extratropical system was gone, those that started thinking something might form, which was most of us, shouldn't be called Beryl naysayers, cause that was naysaying at that extra tropical system.
Yo, sky rider. Amen.
Hey weather456 I just have to know...HOW DID YOU MAKE THAT BERYL GRAPHIC??? It's amazing!!!
Michael, I flagged every one of your posts with language in it. Please quit the horrible words, it's very annoying and there are young people such as myself on this site. Thank you.
Quote from Michael: "I bet everyone in here that thing goes gang busters tomm morning with deep convection firing up all over the western/Northwest Gulf." and "Just looking at the visible satellite, you know tomm this thing is going to organize..."

Ok, a gang buster organization doesn't constitute a TS....??

I'm confused MABEL! I don't know how to read Michaels comments ANYMORE! Oh, just that you were agreeing with jp that this is going to be a storm between 6:00AM and Noon tomorrow.

And the truth is often below the belt, that's why it hurts so bad when I hit there as the truth is often a painful experience.
If something does develop, it will probably be minimal like Beryl. That's good because it will be going over my house!
Gotta agree w/Levi there...Profanity is a strong expression of a weak mind. Ladies as well as young people here, and I don't think the Good Dr. would approve, either.
I have obscened all of michael post. there are young children that read these blogs.

No need for that kind of language.
here is Beryl at night....

wow thats an aewsome graphic
Wow weather456 how did you make that? And how on earth did you get the radar image to tilt like that? Amazing!
196. WSI
"No need for that kind of language."

Agreed. I flagged them as well.
My obscene hanky has been out as well.
Levi32, hey!!!!!, long time no see...

here is a little beryl humour...



All you need is andvance image editing software, google earth, and love for the tropics and weather.
Ok, JP said:

"hurricane23; you know that this thing could easily explode tomorrow and become a depression."

Then hurricane23 said:
"Yea jp i know,Lets see what happens later on tonight with 98L."

Then Michael said:
"Not tonight, tomm morning say from 6:00AM to noon."

Now, the three of you think this is going to be a storm. You either think it or are doing one hell of a job of implying it, either way, I'm convinced that neither of you 3 know what you are talking about.

Anything COULD happen. The San Andres fault in California COULD slip tomorrow. An F5 tornado COULD hit Dallas or Ft. Worth Tomorrow. A tsunami COULD hit in the Pacific tomorrow. This wave COULD become CAT 5 Chris and wipe out Houston or Corpus........ ANY OF THESE COULD HAPPEN! Are they likely? Not on your life... LESS THAN 1% CHANCE!
Weather456 it has been a while! That's a funny graphic lol. You graphics are almost better than the ones on tv!
AND LOL at 456!! Awesome graphics!
here is the last of beryl...



correct Agust to August.
I'm thinking more now that if it gets pushed north and east a smidge and festers, it'll develop...
206. Inyo
Anyone else notice that Emilia is freakishly HUGE in geographic size, although it isnt very organized.

A lot of moisture in that thing... most likely bound for the mountains of California eventually to cause more thunderstorms... woo hoo!

Link
210. WSI
Michael, if you find the need to pepper your post with obscene words, it probably means you need to expand your vocabulary a little bit. Its not hard to express your viewpoint without obscene words.
Yeah, Emilia is large.
I agree with WSI.
that gom blob actually has a small chance,if it mantains its thunderstorm activity a little longer
My God Michael, you need to step outside and have either a cigarette or a nice guy pill. You come up and say I don't know what I'm talking about, then throw a temper tantrum when you're wrong. I have a feeling you want to see a huge storm for whatever reason... I just want to see rain in Texas.

At any rate, the three of you speak with a forked tongue, thus, your credibility is so severely damaged that it would take all of you to get every storm the rest of the season right to make it up. Keep wishin' for your storms so either you or like-minded people like you can run around and scream "OH MY GOD, GLOBAL WARMING! LOOK AT THE DESTRUCTION!". In the meantime, people like me are going to enjoy what is shaping up to be a good ol' rain-feast here in Texas WITHOUT Chris!
Excuse me?

I have clearly heard a majority ask you, Michael to eliminate the swear words. I think you should listen and bow to the will of the majority. It isn't hard to do. Just talk without those words and you will be respected even more.
I believe that upon occasion delicate understatement can be appropriate and sometimes unexpectedly effective particularly when your opponent does not know what the hooey you are talking about.
I have an obscene button and I will use it as frequently as it gives me satisfaction.
Posted By: Michael at 8:30 PM EDT on July 23, 2006.
Hey if you dont like it leave. Nasty channel on TV TURN IT OFF. Go find a meteorlogical church channel


this is not your blog please take it to yours.
kids night on the blog..guess there aren't any good cartoons on
225. cas23
is this a tropical blog???? just logged on. lets talk tropics, michael grow up and learn to respect people. look- i curse like its my second language but i dont here. people dont want to see that stuff. all your doing is slowing down the opinions of the people that really do care about what is goin on, so please stop!!!!!!!
228. WSI
"just dont gripe about it, deal with it"

Oh we are dealing with it. I would much rather someone be told they are doing something wrong than simply have their posts removed. The real characters are the ones who know they are in the wrong but continue anyway.

Once your posts are removed by the admin I hope you see the light.
Guys check out these maps...

Ocean Heat Content Reynolds SST 7/21/2004
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Ocean Heat Content Reynolds SST 7/21/2005
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Ocean Heat Content Reynolds SST 7/21/2006
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us




the gom blob is now dissapated, losing a lot of its convection now
its gone
JP, what PROOF are you talking about????? Do you not agree that shear and proximity to land are inhibiting factors for development??? If you can't get that through your thick skull, I don't know if you know anything about hurricanes.

Also, look at the WV. Does this look like a system destined to organize. Granted, if it lingers longer over the Gulf, the shear relaxes, and it moves a little further east, then I'll entertain your theory.

On the flip side, where is YOUR proof of this thing organizing.... or better said, where is there ANY evidence of this organizing? Hence, you can't have PROOF of anything dealing with weather.... only evidence. I've never heard any respected meterologist say "I have proof it's going to rain at your house tomorrow" or "I have proof this is going to become a hurricane.."

well see chris in late august
Look at all the yellows in 2005!!Thats one of the many reasons 2005 was a season that was breaking records left and right from the start of the season.Iam just glad to have been able to live threw such an incredible season.
On the flip side, where is YOUR proof of this thing organizing.... or better said, where is there ANY evidence of this organizing? Hence, you can't have PROOF of anything dealing with weather.... only evidence. I've never heard any respected meterologist say "I have proof it's going to rain at your house tomorrow" or "I have proof this is going to become a hurricane.."

Bravo! We arent solving equations when we make a forecast!
Ya'll need to take a break, Michael needs to row his boat offshore.
Yes, it's me, back with another question.

Ok, so there is a stalled, or kind of stalled front over the Texas coast, and there is (possible)blob development in the BOC, if this front makes it into the GOM, then backs up, will it influence the blob?

And, what are the chances of the front making it into the GOM and developing when there is already a blob in the BOC?

Thanks all!
I used to make forecasts for a TV station. Noone called me up later and asked for my Proof!..LOL
What "all these systems developing..."??? Did I say there were all these systems developing??? I said keep an eye on the ATL basin in the coming weeks as it looks to be more interesting than this BOC rash... Did I say we were going to have C, D, E, F, G and so on???

What in the HELL are you talking about....????

And yes, I did call someone a jackass. I said it once for emphasis, and let it go..
Guys iam sure u guys are aware of this website but in my opinion it Updates faster and you can zoom in...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

There was a mid-level spin earlier with 98L, but it is all but gone now.The Only way 98L survives is if it picks up some energy that Emilia is throwing out.


98L Probably will be dropped tomorrow unless convection returns. No recon, almost certainly.
Actually, 27windows (that's a lot of windows!), the front over Texas is extremely weak and will likely wash out tonight or by tomorrow morning. It shouldn't be a factor down the road.
256. cas23
.DISCUSSION... A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE TO THE COAST TONIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATER IN THE WEEK.

this remindes me of something!!!!!!lol very stormy night on the east coast. I know the talk is about the BOC but I think we will have to watch the east coast also, ofcouse thats over the next few days
I live in a victorian on the upper Texas coast, so, I like to keep abreast of the tropics in case I must cover those 27 windows.

If the front washes out, is it still possible for a low to develop?
Actually, I could aruge that the front washed out already, the line of convection you're seeing is outflow boundaries from yesterday... but true, there are some low pressures but should be gone tomorrow.

JP, the only reason I got pissed is because I post what I think is going to happen, then 2 people say I either don't know what I'm talking about and anyone who uses probabilities doesn't know what they are talking about.

Let's just shake virtual hands and forget about it.

And I'm not writing this wave off, just saying that the odds of seeing any major storm are nil, but, like Maha Rush would say -- "we'll keep a sharp eye on it."
The front stalled north of the coast. It is not a problem though we are getting thunderstorms from it (like outside my window). The concern now is what happens to a blob way down south in the Bay of Campeche. Right now the worst would seem to be perhaps a weak tropical storm south of us.
our sst is similiar to '04
I would say...nothing wrong with using probabilities...it's what forecasters do...it's what you use to make up those probabilities that are important
If you live on the TX coast, keep an eye on it. It's forecast to be inland by Wednesday morning so it shouldn't have a chance to become a feirocious storm, but keep in mind that any decrease in forward speed or any kick away from land could change things...

Just keep an eye on it tomorrow and Tuesday, that's the best advice I can give at this point.
Guys As we lose visible imagery, it's particularly difficult to discern any LLC in 98L, as low-level cloud elements are generally obscured by mid and upper-level cloud features.

Also One other thing to consider when trying to discern rotation using satellite. You're looking down on a column of air about 10 miles thick. There are clouds throughout that layer at different levels moving in different directions. Also, clouds are developing and dissipating at different levels all the time. It's quite easy for the eye to be deceived by cloud elements moving in different directions and developing/dissipating at different levels. Such motions may give the perception of a circulation when none exists at any one level. The key is to focus on the lower level cumulus clouds and ignore the mid and upper-level cloud motions. Looking at the loop, I can see the lower level cloud elements moving to the northwest. Other cloud elements aloft may be moving from west to east, but there is no evidence of low-level cumulus moving in any direction but from SE to NW. Adrian
It can also be difficult to detect a low level circulation on radar. The echoes may be moving in response to upper level winds and back building may create illusions of circulation.

Feel the buoy, be the buoy.
98L is almost gone....and the tropics remain quiet.
I suppose you could set of a thermonuclear device to produce enough light.
sure..but it had better be a darn big one.......and can you imagine how many c cell batteries will be needed
Good evening weather 456 : )
JustSouthofEquator, good Evening to you too....
Watch this space.

Surface map of Mexico. Get your Campeche here--but only a couple times a day.
C batteries might be cheaper. You could build a cannon that would shoot them into orbit.
of course......now that we have a solar powered light bright enough to light up a large portion of the sky from space....we're using it to illumine invests?....seeing that it's a lighthearted attempt at solving a problem...is this light..worth the harmful effects it could cause on the enviroment...or could it have military applications like keeping up enemy troops at night..or the heat generated to be used to heat up MRI's
Actually using a cannon to shoot things into orbit is a possibility. I got lots of hits by searching for "cannon" and "orbit".

Look here.
Anything COULD happen. The San Andres fault in California COULD slip tomorrow. An F5 tornado COULD hit Dallas or Ft. Worth Tomorrow. A tsunami COULD hit in the Pacific tomorrow. This wave COULD become CAT 5 Chris and wipe out Houston or Corpus........ ANY OF THESE COULD HAPPEN!

Gee, don't u watch TWC??? I have to admit that is a fun show, except Katrina beat them to the punch on their headliner last year...

On a more serious note, someone once told me that the most basic tenet of probability is that everything that happens has a 50% chance of happening; either it will or it won't.

Who is it who keeps saying "where's your evidence"? The probabilities are boring - evidence is hot, baby. . . .
What're the pressure readings on our BOC blob? Pretty big blob...
Baha, Meteorology is based on probabilities. There is no evidence whether a wave is gonna develop or not. But, we can give you a probability for development!..LOL
Evidentiary questions:

Is there a wave?
Is there convection?
Is there shear?
Is there oceanic heat content?
Is there yadda, yadda, yadda.
in predicting weather...how do you operate without both evidence and probabilities?
There is evidence for the probabilities!..LOL
Sorry, that was stated wrong. We gather the evidence, then give you the probability of such in such event happening.
yes indeed
to littleFish:

Here is a buoy in the Bay of C.

Pressure about 1012.5 mb or 29.90 inches.

Boy, I know how to kill a blog. Sorry guys, I am leaving now..LOL
In Puerto Rico all the commercial TV channels have a doppler radar.... and they think that theirs superior to NWS. I think that maybe theirs radars will be more advanced that the NWS one but also, I think that they create false expectations on people. The NWS and the NHC are the only entities that have the authority to expend watch and warnings in an emergency situation. Sometimes the TV channels looks like theirs are the ones that have the control and I think that is not good.... What do you people think??? Sorry for the grammar.....
Hey, just thought about it; the reason we get "disagreements" (thought I'd be a bit euphemistic here lol) is because the very nature of weather forecasting is argumentative. You are stating a probability and using facts of various kinds to show why your prediction is valid.

That's why the links are so important - we want to see what u see that makes u think what u think. I have a feeling that's also what annoys about people like ST; not so much that he is wrong - we all are after all - but that we only get the pronouncement (written in stone, even) and can't see the backup.

I have to admit I've learned a lot more about reading forecast maps, model projections and so on because people here support their ideas the way they do.

I'm just glad no one is calling for the development of any more Bahama Blobs anytime soon . . . .
refill,

Having a better dopplar doesn't mean that you are better able to use it. I am not sure how things work in PR, but in emergency situations, the NWS decides what information is given to the public. The TV stations with the "better" radar still have to say what NWS tells them to say.

My thoughts.
Just took a look at Emilia / Daniel.

I see what someone was saying about the area Emilia is covering. That is a huge storm. This definitely could bring lots of moisture to W. Mexico, maybe the AZ area eventually?
Forgot the link.
also southernn cal.
WOW!!!!

Five-day forecast on Daniel puts it where???

Just north and east of Hawaii!

Whohoo! It's cool to be right . . .
Don't ask me why I thought that, though. (gut feeling doesn't count for much)

Also I notice that Emilia looks to be strictly for the fish.
a model i saw earlier develops this after it moves off florida, and has it hitting nc.Link
above, i mean the one about to move off cuba
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 1:19 AM GMT on July 24, 2006.
I have an idea!! Can a strobe light give us visible images from satellites at night time???

This would probably work, but if it was strong enough to get a good image of a storm, imagine how annoying it would be for anyone who was trying to sleep.
Of course, it would be great for systems in the middle of the ocean.
Here's how you get evidence/probabilities...

Say you have a murder case and a witness describes a guy, describes how the murder happened (say, with a gun), describes the vehicle, etc. So the police go out and nab a guy matching the description, find a gun consistant with the wounds, matching vehicle, no alibi...

All the evidence suggests this is your guy so there is a 99% chance you have your perp... But there could be another guy with the same description, same vehicle, same gun, who actually committed the crime.

Same with weather... true, everything has a 50/50 chance... either it's going to happen or not. Period. How you change those odds are you have to look at all the evidence and say "which side does it support". Another example: A heat wave of 100 degrees could invade Northern Canada during the winter. We know from both a historical and scientific perspective (barring all the kook, global warming conspiracies) that the evidence points that this will not happen.

So we give it a 99.9% chance (saying essentially it's not going to happen) that a heat wave isn't going to invade Canada during the winter and leave the .01% for the anomoly (in case it does). All probabilities do is help with planning... How would you like to wake up and wonder if it's going to be cold or hot, dry or wet, humid or dry... etc. Meterologists look at evidence and produce odds... the same way you get 'tips' or 'picks' at a horse race. In the end, you never know what is going to happen until the event is over... then you can say with absolute certitude what happened.
virginiaweather, you mean it moves off the coast of florida as something strong(hurricane), and then goes off the coast and goes off the coast as a weak tropical storm...floridas in for a tough season this year, im getting prepared
Now, on this 98L note... We all know that systems, in their infancy, are impossible to predict. We all know that the convection looks impressive in the early morning and afternoon hours and looks anemic and poorly organized in the late evening and overnight hours... this is typical. All this is, at this point, is a wait and see game. Wait and see if the convection fires up again tomorrow, if it pushes off shore a little more, if the wind shear relaxes, if the forward speed slows, etc.

Until then, any forecast made on here or by anyone else is just wild speculation (especially on here). Tomorrow we may have 'Chris' on our hands, or we might have the same weak tropical wave. At this point, the evidence suggests that this will not develop, but it is too early to write it off entirely.

We shall watch, wait, and see...
i mean, it devoleps slightly before hitting floria, then devops as it moves towards hatteras.
I knew I had see it this before the Beryl pronunciation discusion! The pronunciation guide to the tropical storm names.

Beryl BER-ril, right there on the NHC site.

Thanks BahaHurican it's on the right in the Hawaii link you posted.
This does not suggest any development in the ATL through Friday. Look at that 1030 high!

This is from http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ .
I look at this site fairly often because it shows the fronts coming down from the north which potentially could steer tropical systems.
? there a 982mb low where?
You're welcome, Skypony. Glad to help!

That OPC site also has a pretty cool Unified Surface Analysis chart with the option of allowing u to look at a 14-day loop of the forecasts for ATL and PAC. This is really cool because it shows the waves from Africa move across the ATL, the Caribbean, and Central America into the EPac, and then forming into TD/TS/H. It also shows the Twaves coming up from the Equator area in the WPac to form some of the WPac typoons.

In the winter it shows the cold fronts going the other way - W to E . . . :o)
98L could do a beryl, look bad tonight, 2morrow boom, TD 3 by 11am, then boom TS Chris by 5pm.

That low is way to the north, heading for England, it seems . . .
On 98 doing a Beryl,

sure it could. But unless it can get out from under Emilia, I'm with the other guys.
I start judging 98L 2 morrow, for now, just wait and see....
So Daniel is now forcasted to be over hawaii as a strong tropical storm in 120 hours
ABNT20 KNHC 240219
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
so where the 982mblow evere one is talking about?
Conditions becomming more favorable.......
If iam not mistaken the last systems to affect Hawaii were....

Hurricane Iniki 1992 and Hurricane Dot in 1959.

If Daniel continued west after reaching Hawaii, he might have a chance at staying alive until the WPAC which is very rare.

Right now the one i can think of is Dora in 1999.

Here's the track...




Actually after doing some searching Iniki was well south of Hawaii and then turned due northward and hit Kauai, so it technically didn't come in from the East like Daniel is forecast to.

Here's the track for Iniki showin the sharp turn.





Incredible JP the NHC is now sayin Daniel could be a significant TRopical cyclone in five days.WOW!

Here a part of what the NHC said...

AS DANIEL APPROACHES
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN.
CONSEQUENTLY...DANIEL COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN FIVE DAYS


...Tropical waves...
High amplitude tropical wave is along 39w S of 22n moving W near
15 kt. A 1011 mb low is on the wave axis near 15n39w. Broad low
level curvature with a well defined low center are observed on
satellite imagery. Wave is embedded with an area of dense
African dust. Only isolated showers are within the ITCZ.
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN FIVE DAYS

hmmm it only 110mph winds now could the winds go back up to 145mph or so be for it gets to the state of HI if that what they mean by a SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE?
For some reason i was just remembering staying up all night with wilma i actually never went to bed.I couldn't believe what recon was reporting inside wilma i will never forget those moments.

CHECK THIS OUT... FROM RECON THAT NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT
Looks like more dust coming off Africa.
LOL
I remember reading that report

I slept very little last night.

There are some spectacular shots of Wilma w/ that small eye and later, with a larger eye, crossing over Cozumel. u could see most of the island through the eye . ..
When I am typing last night for that night, it's a sign that I need to go to bed now. . .

g'nite!
BahaHurican

Check out my Hurricane Wilma Photo Album...
Just me jp...I think?
im here
did u guys see the post i did above on hurricane wilma?
yeah its cool 23
What about my album?
Iam working on getting me a new laptop.Right now got a pc.19 inch flat screen with good tower.any suggestions were i can a good deal?Ebay maybe.
353. SpyRI
Hey guys. Another insomniac here! I was jsut reading about the people dead from the heat wave out west- yikes. And it looks like NOLA is about to get some totally needed but too much too fast rain. What a world we live in.
JP you there?
For real LOL...Ive got a pc in my house but iam lookin into getting a laptop....any ideas?
358. SpyRI
I have a sony vaio which does fine for me- it's pretty sturdy too which is thie thing I was worried about when i got a laptop. Love wifi. Definitely make sure whatever you get is wifi enabled.
lol, that was good ^_^
SpyRI what u like better laptop or pc?
362. SpyRI
Well, I'm at the pc right now, so I guess the pc! I like the monitor size better, and to be honest, I love the sliding keyboard tray on the computer table thing the pc lives on. I love the laptop too. Both are sony vaios, actually. Good stuff for a decent price. I used to be a mac person, but can't afford it anymore. Now the only mac I have is my ipod!
363. Inyo
cyclonebuster, you might be amazed to learn that an amazing wavelength of 'light' emits from the planet at all times, even at night! Furthermore, it emits much less strongly from cold areas, like the top of clouds. Maybe if we could learn to harness this magical wavelength, we could watch hurricanes and other storms at night! It's not visible to the human eye but I bet we could invent a camera that could see it.
364. SpyRI
Wow, I guess everyone left. Ooooookay. (leaves room, wondering "do I offend?""
nope still here for a couple more minutes.
Guys iam sorry to say but the tropics are DEAD as you will ever see it in july.
368. SpyRI
It is dead (ok, I didn't leave lol!) but that's such a good thing after last year,. My sister lives in NOLA, and her whole life is still farked after Katrina. Her best friend was going to go pick up my sister so they could go to yoga together, parked her car, and promptly fell into an open manhole and into the NOLA sewer! She;s on major antibiotics for weeks. I can't imagine living there now. So a quiet season, if boring, at least hopefully won';t give us another Katrina!
370. SpyRI
g'night all.
105AM CDT

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 99W S OF 21N MOVING WEST 5-10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS S MEXICO AND
THE SW GULF. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
WAVE MOVES SLOWLY.

Not sold on the idea it's moving west... But it does look more like it is going to make landfall early Tuesday south of Brownsville as a wave... Sat pics are pretty anemic for this time of night. No imminant development. If it does make TD status, it'll be Tuesday just before landfall but I highly doubt NHC will classify it at that time.

See yall tomorrow..
check out this article i found about katrina

A warning to the scientists, who were behind the systematic reduction wind speeds of Hurricane Katrina thru the media outlets as it approached the coastline, your credibility will be lost, if the same trend of behavior continues. More would have left affected areas if they knew the true wind speeds of 200215 mph and eye pressure was below 900mb at its peak. That storm turned away from New Orleans only in the last few hours with 30+ ft storm surges and monstrous waves on top.
heres the link too the whole article
http://www.grantchronicles.com/astro127.htm
Yeah, not sure if there were intentional motives there. Katrina didn't really hit New Orleans at all, but it was such a monster
just grazing the city was enough. The levee thing can be viewed as a big protective chain around the city. It really just took the break of a single link to destroy it. But everybody concerned knew all that for decades. Now the big easy is just a hole where American taxpayer dollars are poured.
Good Morning all.
Got some much needed rain here in central midlands of SC EARLY this mornin'. Sweet!! Morning Dr M.
Hey Franck,

I have to point out that for many years, the Louisiana coastline has been destroyed by the Corps of Engineers intentially forcing the Miss Riv down one unnatural channel for the sake of shipping interests (for the entire US) The remaining coastline is polluted and degraded by coastal oil drilling (which has at times supplied up to 40% of the nation's oil) Our bottom-land forests here were denuded by national logging interests after the civil war, and our swamps and marshes drained to farm soy beans for the nation.

We are, by the way, Americans here in New Orleans. Our taxes helped bail out airlines and compensate victims after 9/11. Our little towns and parishes sent fire trucks to Manhattan. Go a little further back in history and you will find millions of examples of hard-working Louisianians giving deeply of themselves for national causes.

If the Federal government had honored promises of wetlands restoration and put a tiny fraction of the amount being currently spent on foreign wars into stablizing and repairing the natural systems that have protected coastal LA from storms for centuries, then Katrina would not have had the impact it did.

-NOLA
NOLAinNC....Well said.
I am about as amatuer a weather observer as one can get...

But I seem to notice a wee little bit o circulation due east of Cape Canaveral.. Anyone else see this??


Michale
shhhhh! You'll wake up the atlantic
Nola....
Very well put...
little patch of developing thunderstorm activity on the northern secation of wave heading to the antilles wonder if it will continue to blossom
mrpuertorico...
feeling a little strange with all the dry air around you at this time of the year?...looks like a perfect day.
had some passing showers this morning actually while i was walking the mutt
here's the forcast for pr for the next few days
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL COMBINE
WITH DIURNAL AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AN
ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS
MAINLY IN LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS WHICH ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE RELATIVELY
DRY ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASE WINDS IN THE AREA. THEREFORE MARINERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE NEXT ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN TO THE LOCAL AREA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO THESE POSSIBLE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
i am going surfing this week!!!
I wonder if pr is going to suffer another dry spell like last year
Check it out.
Mr...there you go....I grew up surfing at the beaches around santa cruz, california..and although i'm an "old man" (47) i still enjoy playing with a wave or two...the east coast florida waters are pefect for us old timers....low and slow
I might have thought that BOC wind speed was a thunderstorm downdraft but the speeds have picked up to 20 knots for over an hour. Maybe they will send a recon.
nice! I know what you mean. I am 28 and i am starting to feel the sets alittle more now i just spent two weeks recovering from an injury i got on just sixer's i got it by over excerting myself my doctor told me " your not eighteen anymore" lol ok i got to go to the office see ya guys latter ill be checking in on you guys when ever i can so you better behave have a good one!
mr...enjoy your day......yeah..old at 28...i'd say...wait til you hit 40...then see how you feel..but everyone says to me...wait til you hit 50..then you'll really feel old....and i'm sure it goes on and on... the only upside to growing old is that it beats the alternative
Morning all. Looks like, with the exception of 98L things are pretty quite out there. THe only model picking up on anything in the next few days is the Canadian, but it has been very aggressive all season so don't think it can really be considered too much until at least one other model comes in line.

Anywho, I have got the day off, but will have to work this weekend, so I am going u=out to get some stuff done in the yard.

StormJunkie.com-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.

Ya'll have a great day
SJ
recon is still on~
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 24/1530Z
D. 23.0N 97.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 25/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
I figured it would gain convection a little through the night, seems to be sucking off one of Emilie's feeder bands at the moment. By late afternoon early evening it will probibly be lacking in convection again.

The latest CMC run has what may be a TS forming in the Caribbean and curving out to sea.
sky Emilie's is not looking to well and not make it to a hurricane but how 98L doing right now i see the winds are back to 25kts winds right now
sky i going back to sleep when you commet on my ? can you seen me a WU e mail or post your ? commet in my blog for me thanks
When is that wind shear gonna die down?? I still think 98L will develop, but that wind shear is still quite strong. We've had heavy wind shear daily for several weeks it seems throughout Gulf and Caribbean... If wind shear doesn't die down, nothing can develop. Guess that's good for some:) Not for me, a storm junkie...
African dust and wind shear, this year's season in a nutshell so far.
It will become more favorable for development as we get into August. The wind shear will not last all season long. The patterns will change and when they do, expect some serious action. Keep in mind, there have been several healthy waves this season that were just torn apart by the shear. We did not have this shear last year which is part of the reason last June and July were crazy.
agreed littefish, Shear will die down when Emilie moves on. She's hanging too close to land to develop into anything major. She's also pushed that low pressure area associated with the tropical wave into the gulf a little more. We'll see what happens with 98L once Emilie leaves, if she don't shear 98L to death 1st.
one has to love shear while it lasts...then have to hope the bermuda high does its job...
I'm afraid the Bermuda High might be parking a little further south and west which sets up almost identical to 2004 when Florida got smacked from both sides.
Is anyone looking at the model (CMC, GFS, NOGAPS) runs for the Bermuda high? It's parking it waaay southwest, and -weakening- it, from like 1030-1040mb to, like, 1016mb. Anyone have comments on what-all this might mean?
Guys, does anyone have any information on Hurricane Opal back in the 90s I believe. It really slammed us here in Alabama. I am becoming more fearful that that situation may exist again for this year?
U people are crazy i mean u really need to think about what happens in Aus and Sep I mean the wind shear lowers and June and July are peak mounths for Dust so less Dust also there is areas of very warm water so I really really Dough This is going to be a inactive season
saddlegait: Well, my house was underneath it, if that's what you mean. Wikipedia knows all: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Opal
Thanks... I will check that out. It pretty much blew everything down that wasn't REALLY secure here. Ivan beat us up a bit and we have trees just waiting for the next big storm now... it's funny how last year - right before Katrina..two days before...they came through and trimmed all the trees..now they are all overgrown again... takes a BIG warning and then at the last minute they panic and try to overcome - duh.
98L Update
25knots (30mph)
1011mbar
Convection has increase this morning.
Poorly organized.
Over 20-30knots of shear, shear tendency (steady)(not decresing or increasing)
SST are 28C and 30C in some spots.
wrong the bermuda high coupled with the azores high is setting up a lot further west this year protecting the east coast and increasing the threat to the yucatan and middle texas coasts....StormTop
Then why does Noaa have a 69% chance of a Major landfall from NC SC and GA
your guess is as good as mind..they said the same thing last year...who knows what they are thinking lol...
I don't Know I still think we are to be hit by a major this year and if not Next We(NC) have not Officaly hit since like 2003 if not years below that
HEY STORMY.....
good morning to you......care to comment about the July tropical activity?
Jeff has posted a new blog ...