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Monsoon rains approaching Myanmar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:22 PM GMT on May 14, 2008

The weather in the region ravaged by Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar has taken a turn for the better today, after a low pressure system that brought heavy rains and 20-30 mph winds yesterday weakened and moved off to the north. This system appeared to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression yesterday, but interaction with land is hindering its development, and the low is no longer expected to become a tropical depression. You can view the latest satellite images of the low (dubbed 96B) at the Navy/NRL web site.

The monsoon is coming
However, the respite from bad weather will be short-lived, as the mighty summer monsoon is almost upon the disaster area. The Southwest Monsoon (called that because the winds typically blow from the southwest) is an annual rainy period lasting from late May to mid-September in the regions surrounding the North Indian Ocean. The monsoon forms in response to the unequal summertime heating of the air over the land and oceans. The land heats up quicker than the oceans, creating low pressure and rising air over the Indian subcontinent. Moist air from the oceans is drawn in over the land areas to replace this hot, rising air, and the moist oceanic air brings heavy rains to the region. Truly prodigious rains accompany the arrival of the monsoon. The capital of Yangon averages about one inch of rain per month in the period just before the monsoon starts, and twenty inches per month thereafter.


Figure 1. Current position of the Southwest Monsoon, (northernmost green line), compared to average. The northern edge of the monsoon is almost upon the region hit by Cyclone Nargis. Image credit: India Meteorological Department.

As of today, the edge of the monsoon was just 100 miles south of Yangon and the Irrawaddy delta region (Figure 1). The monsoon is expected to push northwards into the region by Saturday--about one week earlier than average. The monsoon will greatly complicate relief efforts in Myanmar, which can expect flooding rains and problems with mud-choked and washed out roads. The monsoon will continue to affect the area until September. One bright side: once the monsoon arrives, it greatly reduces tropical cyclone formation in the North Indian Ocean. Major tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean are most common in May and November, just before and just after monsoon season.

Was the population warned?
Many of you have expressed amazement that so many could die from a tropical cyclone in this day and age of satellites and modern communications. Why did it happen? I believe there are two main reasons: the historical lack of tropical cyclones that have hit the Irrawaddy delta, and the unwillingness of Myanmar's leaders to provide adequate warnings for fear of jeopardizing their May 10 referendum to consolidate their power.

I've been sent an image of the warning for Cyclone Nargis as it appeared on May 2 in one of Myanmar's main newspapers, "The New Light of Myanmar". The warnings for Nargis on the day it made landfall as a major cyclone did not make the front page, but instead were buried on page 15 of the obituaries and miscellaneous section. The story did not talk about the storm surge or the cyclone's maximum sustained winds, and only mentioned that Myanmar might experience 50 mph winds in squalls. At the time the newspaper was likely preparing this article, both the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the India Meteorology Department were calling for Nargis to be a Category 1 or Category 2 storm at landfall in Myanmar.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update.
Thanks for the update
Thanks Doctor!
Source: International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)

Date: 14 May 2008
ReliefWeb Link


Myanmar: Cyclone Nargis Emergency Appeal No. MDRMM002 Operations Update No. 8 Link


Summary:

The International Research Institute for Climate Change and Society, based out of Columbia University in New York – and a partner of the International Federation – has warned that within the next six days, 12cm of rain is forecast on the Ayeyarwady delta. The potential seriousness is obvious with hundreds of thousands of people about to spend their twelfth night in the open or makeshift shelter. If the rain comes, the water has nowhere to go as the ground is already saturated and neither do the people as their homes are in tatters.
2005 at this time we had 4 tropical waves
768: A post on the solar power calculations is in the other blog.

JFlorida:

The GOM hit that magic temp a few days back, If anything is going to happen for us it will probably be around here.

Indeed. From buoygraph:



There's quite a bit of water over 80F.
In 2005 we also had near perfect atmospheric conditions throughout the whole season. That was one in 50 to 100 year event. It is nearly impossible that we will see a repeat of 05 anytime soon.
ok ivan is just the simple comparation
10. JRRP
ey
Every wave that rolls off the coast seems to be stronger and more intense than the previous one. SAL and wind shear will drop in the Central Atlantic and East Atlantic, and an active CV season seems to be in the making.SST's are above average off the coast (at least they were last) of Africa. The GFS has been predicting some kind of merger between the Bermuda and Azores highs for pretty much every run since early last week. I think the possibility of a recurvature-dominant season like 2006 is rapidly falling. The west really needs to watch out.

I have a few quick questions for the more knowledgeable ones. Any answers would be greatly appreciated.

1) What is the main factor inhibiting development of storms at the moment? In other words, why haven't we had an early start to the season like we did last year?
2) What is the current Madden Julian oscillation outlook?
3) What is the average time of year at which troughs and fronts stop sweeping off the East Coast?
4) How accurate and credible is the wind shear forecast that users such as MichaelSTL have been posting showing an El Nino pattern with hightened wind shear in August?
The biggest limiting factor right now is very dry air (first map), as others have pointed out (positive values here indicate drier air). On the other hand, shear (second map) is well below average:



As for the MJO, it is centered over the Atlantic and West Pacific:

Why didn't the season start early, like last year? Cooler waters in the Carribean and dry air in the areas of low shear.
Hey its ( Sammywammybammy)

Thanks For the Update!
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Looking at this storm running across SE LA, right now. Baseball to golfball hail around Baton Rouge, doppler-detected circulation in an Eastern suburb, better than 65 dBz on the radar.

Radar

SPC_reports

All current nado warnings
What is that interesting cyclonic swirl off the West African coast this afternoon?
18. 786
Karen, I had sent you a response, but it doesn't seem to be posting. All in all I said thanks a lot for your effort and very impressive calculations. I printed out the info. for when I can go solar and now know what to consider.
What is that interesting cyclonic swirl off the West African coast this afternoon?

A new tropical wave.

Thanks for the answers to my questions, Karen and STL.
YANGON, Myanmar - The Red Cross estimated Wednesday that the cyclone death toll in Myanmar could be as high as 128,000 a much higher figure than the government tally. The U.N. warned a second wave of deaths will follow unless the military regime lets in more aid quickly.




The grim forecast came as heavy rains drenched the devastated Irrawaddy River delta, disrupting aid operations already struggling to reach up to 2.5 million people in urgent need of food, water and shelter.

"Another couple of days exposed to those conditions can only lead to worsening health conditions and compound the stress people are living in," said Shantha Bloemen, a spokeswoman for UNICEF.

A tropical depression in the Bay of Bengal added new worries, but late in the day forecasters said it was weakening and unlikely to grow into a cyclone.
21. JRRP
strong tropical wave in the EATL
Nice local maximum of boundary layer moisture convergence in SE LA.

Composite map (select MCONV)
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
457 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAMMOND...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT








Looking at this storm running across SE LA, right now. Baseball to golfball hail around Baton Rouge, doppler-detected circulation in an Eastern suburb, better than 65 dBz on the radar.

That rotation looks very strong...
The Tornado Warning was issued on the Cell awhile ago..


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
453 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAMMOND...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 451 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF INDEPENDENCE...OR 13 MILES WEST OF HAMMOND...MOVING
EAST AT 34 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
INDEPENDENCE BY 505 PM CDT...
HAMMOND BY 510 PM CDT...
ROBERT BY 525 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
Terra, yes...unmistakible.

KLIX_radar_storm_relative_velocity (zoom in just east of BR)
21. JRRP 10:00 PM GMT on May 14, 2008
strong tropical wave in the EATL


Can anyone post the image of the wave?
Its North of I-12.Eastbound



Then, unbelievably, I read this

These people only care that enough will survive to make their power mean something.
On this I agree with you. For sure, I think they are even waiting for the dying to die just to make it less embarrassing.

I thought that paper announcement of the cyclone hitting on page 15 that Dr M showed a few blogs back was some kind of error; that they started the paper on page 15 that day or something bizarre like that, but they really are that negligent.
Wow Terra it Looks Like a Td Already Lol ....

Look at the convection

Would it Make it into the Carribean or would it hit South America?
i checked out image doc such a sham over there
nice update 16 to go
Wow Terra Lol it Looks Like a Td !

Well the Convection ( It does not have a Low Level Surface Low Right?)
it is becoming investive in nature lets see if it maintains and organize further.
iam in the process of gettin a track mark for it
As STL stated, The only limiting factor that will likely keep the new tropical wave from developing is SAL. However we have seen before time and time again that certain systems can moisten there surrounding envirement....That wave will need to be watched...It's very impressive at the moment...A possible pre-season tropical depression? Not likely, But possible.
Shear is below average across most of the Atlantic

36. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 10:17 PM GMT on May 14, 2008
it is becoming investive in nature lets see if it maintains and organize further.
iam in the process of gettin a track mark for it


Folks, an INVEST does not FORM! They are declared when the NHC feels a disturbance has the potential to develop....That's why they are Investigative areas.
GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV) False Color Atlantic Basin
Click to ENlarge Link
Appears that a circulation is attempting to get started directly west of the main mass of convection.
37. CaneAddict 10:19 PM GMT on May 14, 2008
As STL stated, The only limiting factor that will likely keep the new tropical wave from developing is SAL. However we have seen before time and time


I Agree With you 99.9% CaneAddict

The 2:05 PM TWD did not talk about it though



Calm down everyone lets get some real info on this new "wave" from the more professional bloggers on the topic.
more professional bloggers

Man, if I could get paid for that I would be here more with a lot more to say...
3) What is the average time of year at which troughs and fronts stop sweeping off the East Coast?

I dont think they ever stop entirely, but they do become less frequent in June. And sometimes its abrupt too. The reason is, the upper level high or anticyclone that moves north to its July position over the CONUS is the major blocking feature of troughs. Also, as the Northern tropics warm, the temperature gradient where extratropical fronts and cyclone forms shifts northward. What is left is a barotropic enviroment or a typical summer day in Floirda.
Folks in Se Louisiana Parishes should stay alert to this line.

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link



I Agree With you 99.9% CaneAddict

The 2:05 PM TWD did not talk about it though


You may want to check that because they did indeed mention it in there discussion.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 2N32W 1N47W 2N52W. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE HAS LIKELY JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
ALONG 16W OR SO...THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE SFC MAP SOON.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 7N BETWEEN
16W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
35W-45W...WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
23W-31W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 14W.
Yeah me to atom!
racquetball time...later guys...watch that blob so it doesn't develop (somewhat like watching water boil)
By the way this wave is to close to the equator and its spin will be hampered by it.
Its going right down the highway!
Cane ...

Whats The NHC Link for invests?
Sammy if it would be declared an invest then you would find it here....Link
We should not be subjective on these matters. The facts are, for this wave to be classified a depression or invest it must remain its identity for at least 24-48 hrs. It must also show signs of developing LLCC which it cannot at 5N-7N. It can attain a circulation above 10N but that is where the dust is and it will inhibit development.
56. CaneAddict 10:35 PM GMT on May 14, 2008 Hide this comment.

51. Stormchaser2007 10:30 PM GMT on May 14, 2008
By the way this wave is to close to the equator and its spin will be hampered by it.


Buddy, The wave is currently NORTH of the ITCZ (Inter-tropical Convergence Zone), Which is at 10N i would suspect the wave's axis to be more near 11-12 north, which is where it would need to be at the least to start a circulation within the atmosphere, The reason most waves and areas below 10N can't or have a hard time building a circulation is due to the further south it is the more atmosphere it has to spin up. 11-12 north is not that north but north enough that if a wave decides to aquire a circulation it could do so.


58. Weather456 10:36 PM GMT on May 14, 2008 Hide this comment.
We should not be subjective on these matters. The facts are, for this wave to be classified a depression or invest it must remain its identity for at least 24-48 hrs. It must also show signs of developing LLCC which it cannot at 5N-7N. It can attain a circulation above 10N but that is where the dust is and it will inhibit development.
59. Stormchaser2007 10:39 PM GMT on May 14, 2008
56. CaneAddict 10:35 PM GMT on May 14, 2008 Hide this comment.

51. Stormchaser2007 10:30 PM GMT on May 14, 2008
By the way this wave is to close to the equator and its spin will be hampered by it.


Buddy, The wave is currently NORTH of the ITCZ (Inter-tropical Convergence Zone), Which is at 10N i would suspect the wave's axis to be more near 11-12 north, which is where it would need to be at the least to start a circulation within the atmosphere, The reason most waves and areas below 10N can't or have a hard time building a circulation is due to the further south it is the more atmosphere it has to spin up. 11-12 north is not that north but north enough that if a wave decides to aquire a circulation it could do so.

58. Weather456 10:36 PM GMT on May 14, 2008 Hide this comment.
We should not be subjective on these matters. The facts are, for this wave to be classified a depression or invest it must remain its identity for at least 24-48 hrs. It must also show signs of developing LLCC which it cannot at 5N-7N. It can attain a circulation above 10N but that is where the dust is and it will inhibit development.


Sorry about that, I completely mis-judged the wave's axis. WOW!
Thanks for the update Dr M.

Evening all!

30. Love the GHCC site TN, but I hate when they use different scales on their maps. Makes it looks like that wave has much more really deep convection then it does. Anyone know why they do this?
That wave is very impressiveee.
Things often look impressive when coming off of Africa...

Patience young Skywalker
The wave is really trying to cluster up....If it was above 10N it could very wuickly aquire a circulation.
63. StormJunkie 10:43 PM GMT on May 14, 2008
Things often look impressive when coming off of Africa...


Exactly, So it look's impressive, You dont need to tell me.
Thanks W456 for your earlier response!

I don't think this will be designated an invest...if the shear doesn't kill it, the dust will, and I think the NHC and Navy are aware of this and thus they are just treating it as a normal Spring wave and will likely continue to do so. Still, the next week should start to get interesting.
30. Love the GHCC site TN, but I hate when they use different scales on their maps. Makes it looks like that wave has much more really deep convection then it does. Anyone know why they do this?

The hurricane images on the GHCC site appear to use the same scale that CIMSS uses for their color enhanced images, with different colors:

Patience young Skywalker

Exactly!
The wave axis along 17W, stretching from 11N to the equator. Maximum lower-mid level vorticity is centered along the axis at 7N.
WAVETRAK 10 day Java Loop
N Atlantic Sector.Link

Thanks Dr. M..........One bright side: once the monsoon arrives, it greatly reduces tropical cyclone formation The only bright side, but, really quite a nightmare that will continue for many more months, and deaths, to come in spite of the lack of tropical storms in the region......Somebody (UN?) may need to set up some type of refugee camp on higher/drier ground in the region, but, I suspect that finding a willing host country will be near to impossible........
One thing is bothersome, the models don't show an existing or developing cyclone anywhere near it.
Its May.
Rarely do see early Pre-seasonal development that far out.
63. StormJunkie 4:43 PM CST on May 14, 2008 Things often look impressive when coming off of Africa...

Patience young Skywalker
.......Lol, or better yet for you "older" folks, "So Grasshopper, do you think that this "wave" will develop in Mid-May?.........MMMMM, Ha, Ha, Ha......"
The 18z shows a 1009 mb closed low out 36 hours with the wave but quickly wipes it out.

Link
hey cane addict cool your jets
it is taking on the charatristics of a system that is meeting investive parameters.
track mark 20.1w/7.8n se north atlantic basin
reply for post 39
. TerraNova 10:45 PM GMT on May 14, 2008
Thanks W456 for your earlier response!

I don't think this will be designated an invest...if the shear doesn't kill it, the dust will, and I think the NHC and Navy are aware of this and thus they are just treating it as a normal Spring wave and will likely continue to do so. Still, the next week should start to get interesting.


Yeah, Towards the end on may, We can actually start watching for development. The ITCZ will likely continue to rise northward, resulting in waves being at a high enough longitude to develop circulations.
track mark?.
Geezuz,,now its a monster wave..

Monster Radar in real time,almost Link
Well technically there was a cyclone that formed at 1.5 degrees north in the WPAC so 7N isn't too far south but it makes it very difficult for anything to form. It's still too early to see CV development now IMO
CA, not telling you, just stating a fact. You seem very excited about this wave, and the fact is waves often look like this coming off of Africa, but the true test is what it looks like in 72hrs or so. Not saying it is not an interesting feature to watch and discuss, but the fact is it will likely amount to nothing especially since it is below 10N, has some dry air to deal with, and it is very, very early in the season to get development off of Africa.
The JMA has 04W and 95W Invest as Tropical Depressions and forecasts both to become Tropical storms.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
555 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COVINGTON...
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAMMOND...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT Link

BTW Pat....That cell/tornado warning is moving pretty fast just North of Baton Rouge: are you in harms way? (I forgot where you are located).....
, 100, 200 Comments Sort: Newest First - Order Posted Filter: Show All Show Bad Show Below Average Show Average Show Good Show Best

84. StormJunkie 10:56 PM GMT on May 14, 2008
CA, not telling you, just stating a fact. You seem very excited about this wave, and the fact is waves often look like this coming off of Africa, but the true test is what it looks like in 72hrs or so. Not saying it is not an interesting feature to watch and discuss, but the fact is it will likely amount to nothing especially since it is below 10N, has some dry air to deal with, and it is very, very early in the season to get development off of Africa.
Action: | Ignore User


Excited? No i am just simply impressed by the size of this area. I am actually saying it WONT develop. You dont need to explain to me about dry air and such, I am actually one of the bloggers here that has enough knowledge to spread to other learners. You may not pay attention enough to know, But although there is some here that know a great amount more then me, I know enough.
Im in Nola,Uptown.Near Miss River.Link
67. Thanks STL, I wunder why? You loose so much detail when everything "goes white" As opposed to using the scale on this image.



Stay safe pat!
Anyway, StormJunkie i have a great deal of respect for you, Let's endthis little pity agrument.
Midland NOAA Radio Singing and Pinging.Just worried this May Stall.Most our Spring Flood events occur in May.
May 3rd 78.May 8th 95.
So Historically,one to watch here.
Well I guess no one has room left for humble pie :~)

CA, no need to prove your worth to me, I think we all have something to offer each other, and we also all have something to learn by listening to each other.

I hear ya and concur CA!
90. Patrap 4:59 PM CST on May 14, 2008
Im in Nola,Uptown.Near Miss River.Link


So I take it you are getting some rain?...I'm, in the western florida panhandle for the next three days so I hope the weather "calms down" by the time is heads this way tommorow....
Storm Totals becoming excessive in areas Nw of me Link
I am Just west of the Radar Circle here. Rain and T-storms blossoming .Link
that was for cane addict pat
we may need an intervention for him and get him some cane rehab
Howdy all.
Evening nash, good to see ya!
Just 2 1/2 weeks until the 2008 season officially begins. Man, that six months off really flew by quickly!
Cane- I feel this will be a busier season than the last two. The weaker A/B High has me concerned...
102. nash28 7:27 PM EDT on May 14, 2008
Just 2 1/2 weeks until the 2008 season officially begins. Man, that six months off really flew by quickly!

To fast for me nash! Waiting on my lakers game man hopefully they will pull it out.
104. nash28 7:37 PM AST on May 14, 2008
Cane- I feel this will be a busier season than the last two. The weaker A/B High has me concerned...


so far...that what it seems like to me. A true cape verde season shaping up.
Good evening.
A goodlooking wave out there.
In the meantime, the last 2 of them got boinked as they reached 55/60 w, due to some adverse winds in the upper levels from the southwest.
If the s/w winds persist ( and they have been blowing since Feb ), and if the area of SAL in the Atl can hold its own against it, then I would say this wave is going to have a hard time surviving.

Looks a good one though..........
104. nash28 11:37 PM GMT on May 14, 2008
Cane- I feel this will be a busier season than the last two. The weaker A/B High has me concerned...


Personally, It has me very worried....I also believe we are in for alot of storms and alot of U.S. landfalls...Almost like Mother nature is going to make up for the last 2 seasons.
Last basketball post as to not piss of the Admin:-)

It's too bad Dallas didn't have the fire of the 2006 season. They would have waxed New Orleans. But again, not enough open offense to create on the fly..

Good luck tonight Adrian! Utah is a bear.
Here is my post from a few days on Dr Masters Blog concerning Steering Patterns and its affects on Hurricanes.

For those wondering about steering patterns for 2008 the important thing to watch for is what the conditions are that steer the storms when there is a storm in the area. Timing is critical. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. Last year we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when".
Absolutely 456! Let us also not forget the mid-longitude storms that fire up at low latitude (circa 2004) around 10-12N 55-60W
Hey Nash28 Howya been
456, not sure if you were around earlier when I was talking about how long it has been since we have had a true long track season. Think I am going to pillage the WU historical data to see what I find.
Good evening.
A goodlooking wave out there.
In the meantime, the last 2 of them got boinked as they reached 55/60 w, due to some adverse winds in the upper levels from the southwest.
If the s/w winds persist ( and they have been blowing since Feb ), and if the area of SAL in the Atl can hold its own against it, then I would say this wave is going to have a hard time surviving.

Looks a good one though..........


Shear continues to drop....and SST's are high enough....Still it would be something to see development.
ESL by LSU Link

We have to get past San Antonio,one more game.



Bingo Adrian. Charley caught the early trough and spared me by only 85 miles. Last year, when we were ALL baking and getting zero relief, the storms all went basically due W. This year??? We'll find out.
116. StormJunkie 7:45 PM AST on May 14, 2008
456, not sure if you were around earlier when I was talking about how long it has been since we have had a true long track season. Think I am going to pillage the WU historical data to see what I find.


Yeah...when u mention we were overdue for a true cape verde season
Some Line a coming down.Hoping it moves along,but its becoming more east west.

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI Link
Yes you do Pat. This will probably go 7 games. S.A. is a bear to beat at home.
04, 00, 98, 96, 90, and 89 seem to be long track years for the most part. 89 is as far back as I went, and it had 3 storms form E of 25w
We shall see tomorrow night.
If it does...Game 7 is in da "Hive".
Just an observation, since the December 26,2004
9.1 earthquake in the western pacific, it seems the weather have really changed, could it be maybe the quake might of tilted the axis of the earth slightly? How many natural disasters have occured since them, and the magnitude of them!
like I said, just an observation!
You mean Game 7?? LOL!! Just messin with you Pat:-) Your team is really solid. Everyone knows their roles and they play some damn good defense.
It will be tough to put away S.A. but they have a good chance.Iam hopeing K.B's injury is not to serious.
The big question is how long this wave lasts. I tell you, if this were July or August and we saw this same wave it would have a good chance to develop (depending on conditions) but right now it doesn't look like anything will form. We will have to see if its here in the morning.

The more significant thing about this is that tropical waves are now coming off at a good pace so that could be a sign of things to come and a sign that the EPAC season should begin later in the month or early June.
The Great Quake of 2004 Dec and its effect on Earth Link
Having said that, my sports misrery didn't last long with the Mavs early exit... See, I have been a rabid fan of the Detroit Red Wings since I was born, watched Steve Yzerman grow up, etc... Was born in Pontiac, MI... My family roots are from Detroit. They are about to complete a sweep of..... ironically another Dallas team the Stars. On to the Cup Finals for the chance to win their 4th in 11 years!
hello everyone....ive been an wunderground follower for quite some time and felt it was finally time to stop hiding behind the computer screen....name is John and i live in Deerfield Beach, FL.
Hi John!!!!! Welcome to the WU family!
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ON THE 18Z SFC MAP ALONG 17W/18W
SOUTH OF 12N BASED ON SFC OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PHOTOS AND AN
ASCAT PASS. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS JUST
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN ADDITION...THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING NWD TO AROUND 12N. ALSO...THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM
INDICATES THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS WAVE THAT PROBABLY MOVED
OUT OF AFRICA THIS MORNING.
Thanks, Patrap, maybe the changing of the earths axis did make a difference in weather patterns
Welcome aboard DBG, from another John :~)

Always great to have folks come out of lurk!
It looks like there is an anticyclone protecting the wave from strong shear right now.
And so it begins ladies and gentlemen...

So it begins...
extreme236 scroll down on my page and use the EUMETSAT image i have up it will take you directly there were you can loop it.
thanks nash...i too am extremely passionate about weather and i have enjoyed the discussions, debates, and forecasting this site has offered the last 3 years...ive learned so much more about weather from this site and have even educated others about weather from discussions on this message board...
Great obs Extreme!!!!!!

Similar to the one Barry thrived under last year on June 1st before hitting Tampa. Granted, that was the weakest excuse of a TS I have EVER witnessed!!!
welcome to the blog deerfield.
It was a Geological event,not a weather event.

Volcanoes and such can have an effect on World and Local weather.But theres no data to indicate the Earthquakes did or does.

They happen thousands of times a year.
138. extreme236 7:59 PM EDT on May 14, 2008
It looks like there is an anticyclone protecting the wave from strong shear right now.

There also good amounts of SAL to its north.

Gotta run y'all. Have a good night.
142. nash28 12:01 AM GMT on May 15, 2008

Great obs Extreme!!!!!!

Similar to the one Barry thrived under last year on June 1st before hitting Tampa. Granted, that was the weakest excuse of a TS I have EVER witnessed!!!


Thanks, and I agree, Barry was a sad excuse for a TS but I guess it had the strength of one lol

Also, thanks for the link H23, great website!
thanks storm, lol i feel like a lil kid whose meeting his favorite baseball player for the first time.

ive thoroughly enjoyed ur forecasts and analysis as well as many others over the past few years and look forward to joining the boards actively in discussing and following the upcoming hurricane season
Yep a large shield of SAL to the north.

Also SSTs under the wave are about 28 degrees Celsius according to the one SST map I'm looking at.
GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Model Link
Thanks, Patrap, maybe the changing of the earths axis did make a difference in weather patterns

Most certainly would...a slight change...a slight, likely undetectible result. A not so slight change...likely an obvious result. Thinking coriolis, QBO, ionosphere, etc.

Hi David. I am Ben and I too have an alcoholism problem ;-)
The previous wave that emerged from the African coast also had an anticyclone suspended over it.
Current SST anomalies:

That wave at 18 w will not be affected by the SAL as yet. It will move westward through the ITCZ I think, and there is ample moisture there right now.
I still think that it will have a hard time surviving after 60 w because of the shear there.
Just added your website to my favorites list H23. Looks like a lot of good information on the site.
hey deer jump in theres always plenty to talk about even if your not right thats why they have this blog to learn.
Thanks DBG, although I must admit I am not much of a forecaster, I just interpret what the models have already forecasted and I am only somewhat decent at that. I just love tracking weather and the H season.

Got to run for a bit, but look forward to having you around!
The wave is impressive but its unlikely to develop. You really know it won't develop when even the CMC doesn't develop it.
hey pat looks like you got a spinner over the lake
SST anomalies are fairly stable right now

Hello, haven't been here in a while!

Well, I see there is a new wave to track. It looks to be under 5-10 kts of wind shear right now; when it moves a bit north, it'll start encountering 10-20 kts of shear, and SST's are favorable for development. The things I see preventing development right now are SAL and this wave probably not being able to have a decent circulation due to being too far south. So, I don't expect development, but if, yes that small chance, it could avoid South America and enter the Eastern Pacific or even the caribbean, development, if conditions approve, can slowly occur.

Even if this wave doesn't make it into the EPAC/CAR, we may soon get things brewing in the Atlantic Basin. Something like Andrea, Barry, Arlene, or even Alberto may be a situation to look out for starting late May, early June. And, just to mention, even though our SST's are only average in the CAR/GOM, with right shear and no dust development is very possible.
162. JRRP
158. extreme236 12:13 AM GMT on Mayo 15, 2008
The wave is impressive but its unlikely to develop. You really know it won't develop when even the CMC doesn't develop it.

LOL..

138. extreme236 11:59 PM GMT on May 14, 2008
It looks like there is an anticyclone protecting the wave from strong shear right now.


Shear in that area is 5-15 knots regardless, Isnt it?
There was TVS over the Lake severstorm..but vorticity weakened back to Severe T-storm signature.

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
63. CaneAddict 12:26 AM GMT on May 15, 2008
138. extreme236 11:59 PM GMT on May 14, 2008
It looks like there is an anticyclone protecting the wave from strong shear right now.


Shear in that area is 5-15 knots regardless, Isnt it?


Shear outside of the anticyclone is about 20 knots or so at the time.
141. DeerfieldBeachGuy 6:00 PM CST on May 14, 2008.......Welcome DFBG, and, just in time; you might be in the line of fire this season and might need some of our "support" to help get you through (or to freak you out even further)......How close are you to the coast?............
141. DeerfieldBeachGuy 12:00 AM GMT on May 15, 2008
thanks nash...i too am extremely passionate about weather and i have enjoyed the discussions, debates, and forecasting this site has offered the last 3 years...ive learned so much more about weather from this site and have even educated others about weather from discussions on this message board...


Welcome to the blog, Jon! I look forward to having you around this hurricane season!
236 23 and evere thats evere


Dean, Felix, and Noel Retired From List of Storm Names
International Committee Selects Replacement Names for 2013 List
May 13, 2008




Hurricane Felix, a Category 5 storm, bears down on Central America.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
The names Dean, Felix, and Noel, three of the most devastating storms of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, were retired by members of the 30th Session of the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee during its annual meeting in Orlando, Fla.

Members of the committee, which includes representatives from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, can remove names associated with storms that cause significant loss of life and property. These names will not be used again because of the wide spread destruction caused by these storms.

The committee issues a list of potential names for tropical cyclones every six years and for 2013, Dean, Felix, and Noel have been replaced with Dorian, Fernand, and Nestor. Since tropical cyclones were first named in 1953, 70 names have been retired, the first two being Carol and Hazel in 1954.

Details of the newly retired 2007 named storms are shown below:




Hurricane Dean was a Category 5 storm as it hit the Mexican coast.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
Dean passed between St. Lucia and Martinique on Aug. 17 on a remarkably constant heading across the Caribbean Sea, passing just south of Jamaica with Category 4 winds of 145 mph. Over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Dean reached Category 5 strength of 165 mph just before landfall on Aug. 21 near Costa Maya on the Yucatan Peninsula. It weakened over land but emerged into the Bay of Campeche, strengthening to Category 2 status just before landfall the next day south of Tuxpan, Mexico. Dean is directly responsible for 32 deaths across the Caribbean, with the largest tolls in Mexico and Haiti.
Felix was the second hurricane of the season to make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane, a feat never seen before in records dating back to 1851. Felix became a hurricane on Sept. 1 over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. It rapidly intensified, and Felix became a Category 5 hurricane about 400 miles southeast of Jamaica. The storm weakened to Category 3 but re-intensified to Category 5 status just before landfall on Sept. 4 at Punta Gorda, Nicaragua. Felix was responsible for 130 deaths in Nicaragua and Honduras, causing major damage in northeastern Nicaragua and inland flooding over portions of Central America.


Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Noel on November 1, 2007.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
Noel was a slow-moving tropical storm from Oct. 25 to Oct. 31, while over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, eastern Cuba and the lower Bahamas before reaching Category 1 hurricane strength on Nov. 1 in the northwestern Bahamas. As it accelerated northeast over the western Atlantic waters near Nantucket Island, Mass., it was no longer classified as a tropical system but packed 75 mph winds as it came ashore near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. Noel was responsible for at least 160 deaths across the Caribbean and Bahamas. The system produced hurricane force winds over portions of the northeast U.S. and Canada, producing widespread power outages. It also produced significant coastal flooding and wave action that washed out coastal roads in portions of Nova Scotia.
Names for the upcoming 2008 Atlantic season, which begins June 1, include Arthur, Bertha, Christobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
i got your back pat lol still looks like a mean line of storms
look out pearl river about to get slammed
or to freak you out even further

Nice wannabe, rotflmao!

You giving pearland a break tonight, going on a roll here?

Work calls, see y'all later ☺
I found this site for the ITCZ, good link here. http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/itcz/" target="_blank">Link
Dean will be replaced by Dorian
Felix with Fernand
Noel with Nestor
all of these names are ones nobodies heard of
they're even worse than the previous ones
rain again tomorrow and Friday more flodding for the Mideast : )
My pet frog Tina died today she was almost 7 years old : ( we'll have to get some tadpoles and raise them to floglets
Either you are all working on a serious blog or I'm very lonely
I could go out and watch Issac's storm and write a review of it before you come back to post
Well how about that! Dean, Felix, and Noel, just as we predicted, retired.
Dean will be replaced by Dorian
Felix with Fernand
Noel with Nestor
all of these names are ones nobodies heard of
they're even worse than the previous ones


At least they are not almost the same (Katrina replaced with Katia, Rita with Rina). Also, here is some information regarding those names; notice that none of them are of English origin:

The boy's and girl's name Dorian \d(o)-rian\ is pronounced DOR-ee-en. It is of Greek origin, and its meaning is "descendant of Dorus; from Doris". Place name: Doris is an area in Greece. Literary: in Oscar Wilde's novel "The Picture of Dorian Gray", Dorian was granted the wish that he would retain perpetual youth and beauty. A portrait of him changed to show the ravages of time and eventually caused his death.

The boy's name Ferdinand \f(e)-rdina-nd, fer-di-nand\ is of Old German origin, and its meaning is "bold voyager". Explorers Ferdinand Magellan, Hernando Cortez; former Philippines president Ferdinand Marcos.

The boy's name Nestor \n(e)-stor, nes-tor\ is pronounced NES-tor. It is of Greek origin, and its meaning is "traveler". Also possibly "homecoming". Both meanings are related to the aged but vigorous king of Pilos, a character in Homer's "Iliad", who longed for the Trojan War to be finished so he could return to his home in Greece. He was a wise ruler who was always called on for advice.
Hello
Thanks HurricaneSammy for stopping by my site, Anyway im off to bed, Let's see if this impressive wave persists and looks just as good tomorrow.

Figure 1. Infrared Satellite Imagery Of Wave

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


Figure 2. Visible Imagery of Wave.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

When will we see our 1st threat to the US and where.
184. DDR
That is an impressive looking wave
Source: United Nations Department of Public Information (DPI); United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

Date: 14 May 2008
ReliefWeb Link

Press conference on Myanmar by Emergency Relief Coordinator 14 May 2008 Link


With aid arriving in Myanmar in increasing quantities, the United Nations Emergency Relief Coordinator urged the country’s Government to allow international relief workers into the area affected by the recent cyclone, in order to distribute supplies and coordinate assistance.

Speaking to correspondents at a Headquarters press conference this afternoon, John Holmes, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, said that there was a ‘huge frustration’ that, while able to enter the country and Yangon, international relief workers were not allowed to move into the affected area. On the whole, notwithstanding ‘small signs of progress’ in some areas, the relief getting through ‘under the kind of restrictions we’re operating under is by no means adequate to the task, and it is hard to see how just continuing with the status quo could be sufficient’, he said.

Stressing the need for a multilateral and multinational response, ‘given the size of the crisis and to avoid the second wave of deaths’ from the spread of disease, he said that national staff and non-governmental organizations on the ground were doing a heroic job under the circumstances, but the resources were increasingly over-stretched. Expert assistance and guidance from trained international staff were needed.
Source: United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

Date: 14 May 2008
ReliefWebLink

Burma: Cyclone Fact Sheet #7 (FY) 2008Link


U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BUREAU FOR DEMOCRACY, CONFLICT, AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (DCHA)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)

Note: The last fact sheet was dated May 13, 2008.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

- On May 14, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) flew five C-130 sorties transporting USAID and DOD relief commodities from Utapao, Thailand, to Rangoon. The relief items, valued at approximately $153,400, included a total of 200 rolls of plastic sheeting, which will serve 10,000 people; 3,600 hygiene kits, which will serve 18,000 people for two weeks; and 12,000 water containers, which will serve 24,000 people. The flights also included more than 40,000 bottles of water procured by DOD. To date, DOD has flown eight airlifts of USAID relief commodities from Utapao to Rangoon.

- Heavy rainfall continues to affect southern Burma, particularly Rangoon and Ayeyarwady divisions. The tropical cyclone formation alert that was issued by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center on May 13 has significantly weakened. Potential development of a significant tropical cyclone in the region is currently highly unlikely. However, continued rains in the affected area and upstream river systems are likely to lead to prolonged flooding in the region.
Pretty impressive tropical wave there. This is actually a very impressive wave since it's only May 14. I get the feeling with waves like these, we may see an early season storm after all. Not in May, but around the second week of June, IMHO.
187. KoritheMan 9:25 PM CDT on May 14, 2008
I was thinking we would see one the last week of this month....
thunder!~lightening!,.....it's coming, can't wait for a little rain tonight........sound of rain helps the body sleep good
Wow -Where did everybody go?
This is what I saw:
___________________________________________
Viewing: 601 - 189

Page: 1
____________________________________________
I think I found a bug. Step on it.

Nothing in the BOC - yet.

BTW - did you know in Firefox, hitting / opens Quick Find? Like Ctrl F, but quicker.



To quote vort, sort of...


You are our friend Emmy and we grieve with you.
God bless and keep you and your family strong.
BTW - did you know in Firefox, hitting / opens Quick Find? Like Ctrl F, but quicker.

I do now.. thanks :)
Thank you Stormjunkie!
No, thank you vort!
Good Night All and Stay Safe on the Gulf Coast....I was working late tonight, forgot I logged on a few hours ago, about to leave the office and turing off the the computer, glanced at the NWS loops to see if I was getting rain tommorow, and, WOW; that it one large blob of convection sweeping through Texas right now head East towards LA and the Gulf right now..........See Yall tommorow...WW
Guess everyone is asleep........; feel like Will Smith in I Am Legend right now....................Good Night.
Why I think the earth has become more dangerous:

Natural disasters are on the rise because humans can now influence weather/earthquakes with electromagnetic waves.

Check Def. Sec. William Cohen's comments and also check Tesla. Weatherwars.info gives some good pictorial evidence. The evidence is out there... you just have to look.
That is true Ill.
How will you present your case?
I was thinking we would see one the last week of this month....

That would be a major surprise, although an invest is certainly a possibility. All it will take is one area of disturbed weather to linger in the Carribean or Gulf for a day or two, and bam, we have 90L.

But I wouldn't look for a tropical cyclone to form until the second week of June, as I already said. That's just my opinion, though, and that's ONLY if impressive waves like this current one keep coming off Africa. If not, I'd expect some development around the second week of July.

Either way, I only expect 1 storm prior to August. After that, activity should ramp up significantly.

Natural disasters are on the rise because humans can now influence weather/earthquakes with electromagnetic waves.

Uh... you sure about this?
I agree Koreman storms rarely form before hurricanes season and in the first and the weather channel stated that only one storm forms in the two month period of June and July so that totals up to be one storm
Good morning. The wave at 20 w. has lost a lot of its moisture overnight ?
Looks like it...although it may just be due to diurnal interactions.

Good Morning All....(late night/early morning at the office)...I see the blob of convection in Texas is firing up again over LA and headed towards the Central Gulf Coast....Looks like trouble, but,....

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2008

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH PWAT INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL IMPACT HEATING TODAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SUPPRESSING AFFECT THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FEEL THAT HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER SE ALABAMA ZONES BY MIDDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADULLY INCREASING TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NOT AS CONFIDENT AS PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH WITH HIGH PWAT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SPC HAS WESTERN HALF OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH MAIN THREAT BEING WET MICROBURSTS. BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REACH 45-50KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER...NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION TO TAP
.


Very Cloudy/High Clouds over the Western Florida Panhandle this morning which will keep the Sun at bay a little bit, and, prevent too much daytime heating so I hope we will end up with some much needed rain as opposed to severe weather today......WW
203. weathermanwannabe 4:56 AM CST on May 15, 2008
Good Morning All....(late night/early morning at the office)...I see the blob of convection in Texas is firing up again over LA and headed towards the Central Gulf Coast


Sorry, meant to say the "line" of t-storms in the frontal boundry (coffee not ready yet and I don't want to be accused of blob watching for storms in the Gulf in mid-May.........Lol)...
lol WMW
WMW -- Did you just issue the seasons first blob alert?

I won't tell. Hey at least it is something to talk about that won't take human life or cause millions in property damage.
207. Dakster 5:27 AM CST on May 15, 2008
WMW -- Did you just issue the seasons first blob alert?
.......Lol, but if it was only a few weeks from now............But, certain parts of Florida are going into that very dry Summer pattern, and, wild fire season has begun in earnest so we need all of the rain that we can get (and a few tropical storms to boot) so I will actually be praying for some local blobs to develop, and blossom, around Florida over the next two months so we can get the much needed rain.....

Any word on Flooding effects or Tornado damage in Louisiana?

Hope this day is a good one for rescue workers, fire prevention people, and reconstrionists everywhere.
i hope nc has no more tornados
Good morning all. Saw that last night, a very impressive tropical wave had caught many peoples attention. With my new approach that I have developed for this upcoming hurricane season, I will need to see persistence before I start even considering possible development. Last season, I admit that I was premature with several systems and jumped the gun on increasing convection or slight moves to the east or west. Just need to learn to calm down the excitement that builds inside me for tracking storms so that I can be an objective forecaster in the future.

Figure 1 - Visible Satellite Imagery of Latest Tropical Wave (Source: Tropical RAMSDIS Imagery 2008)
Note the displacement of convection to the west of the actual tropical wave axis.
Off to work and will see Yall later this evening..........Bye
Ya Basic Louisiana spring Wet event.
Look at the SAT!!!!! Its 9 am too!!!!!
Those tops shouldn't bee that cold. did shear just diminish incredibly?
Multiple Lines of T-storms to come thru nola proper yet. Then some heavier rains behind the Squall Lines.
Going to be a "soaker" as they say.

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
Morning cchs - yes controlled anticipation - otherwise you'll be suspect of being "chicken little" --"the sky is falling" or the dude that "cried wolf" and when you need the people to pay you mind they won't because you've been calling out storms that don't materialize -- It's a very difficult position to be in. I find more and more that while weather forecasting is a science.....it is very much an art as well.
Atlantic WV Loop with dry air shaded ESL,LSU site. Link
A low must be traveling up that front, look at this graph from off Texas.

Station 42019 - Freeport, TX 60 NM South of Freeport, TX
Just wanted to deliver an update regarding my SITE. The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season preview that had been posted on my Tropical Update page has now been place in its own page entitled "Hurricane Season Preview". Also, since I have found that some visitors reside near the Eastern Pacific, I will cover active systems in the Eastern Pacific this season, but will not post a Tropical Weather Discussion for the region.
blob watching begun ?

Its still sailing season.
Gulf blob season officially opened a few days ago.
LAFAYETTE LA 3024 9209 DAMAGE TO HOMES REPORTED NEAR SCOTT. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (LCH)


Its a freak show over Louisiana this morning. Thats a surprising system.
Heres to hoping that a lack of daytime heating ahead of that rain will keep things a bit calm.
JFlorida,
Everytime you post something with the computer models, I never see what you are referring to in them. Don't always get hyped up about computer models since the key words you used were "Last frames..."
msphar....it's ALWAYS sailing season.....
light rain right now, under flash flood watch untill this evening..welcoming the rain, but not good for Jimmy Carter and his group who are still building homes here on the Gulf Coast
Presslord - My bad, note to self, better get back to the boat soon.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN
ADDITION...THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS THE PRESENCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AN AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
NEAR 12N.

the 3dr TROPICAL WAVE of the year why the Eastern Pacific has not seen not one yet
whats the update on the big H for this year??? what kind of set up will have this year its now may 15th is it this a little too soon to tell or is it time that we no what the setup will be like for this hurricane season
Taz - they get lost inland in SA
jeeze, why can't i get some of that rain here in SWFL/GOMEX -- we're like crispy it's so dry here --nothing i would love more then a two day easy soaker--just to cool off --it would be delightful to do my am run in the rain for a change
Well, Lafayette has sure been hit pretty badly. Looks like a twister must have hit the oil center business area and my mom's neighborhood has trees/powerlines down all over...who knows what we will find when we get out today. They say we will have another round this afternoon...Streets are flooded...I woke up at 4am to so much lightning popping in my window...Winds and rain have died down for now...hope everyone is OK. Lisa
Source: Government of the United States of America

Date: 15 May 2008
ReliefWebLink

U.S. flights continue to deliver supplies to BurmaLink


By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, May 15, 2008 %u2013 A total of eight Air Force C-130s have delivered supplies to Burma as part of the U.S. relief effort following Cyclone Nargis, a senior military official said yesterday.

Five C-130 Hercules transports delivered water, blankets, rations, mosquito netting and plastic sheeting yesterday. %u2018We have to have permission every time we go in,%u2019 the official, speaking on background, said. %u2018U.S. officials have a verbal OK to bring in five more planeloads of relief supplies today, he added.

Military planners said they want the Burmese to accept six CH-53 helicopters to speed delivery of the supplies to those hardest hit by the cyclone deep in the Irrawaddy River delta. Burma has only a handful of helicopters, and military officials doubt the nation has the capability to deliver the supplies to those most in need.

U.S.Marine Ch-53 Sea Stallions

234. Tazmanian 9:57 AM AST on May 15, 2008
whats the update on the big H for this year??? what kind of set up will have this year its now may 15th is it this a little too soon to tell or is it time that we no what the setup will be like for this hurricane season


long range GFS continues to support a sprawling high across the Central Atlantic for atleast the next 2 weeks.

Beyond that, the ECMWF is forecasting lower than normal sea level pressure in the subtropical Atlantic during July, August and September which supports more or less negative values this hurricane season.
News off a surfwebsite, National Hurricane Center has RETIRED the NAME DEAN!!!!! this Cat 5 was the GREATEST CHANNEL SWELL to visit the coast of West Florida.

Probably will be one of the highlight swells of my life surfing here in SWFL. Wilma was certainly memorable, but the two waves I caught were so terrifying that all I remember is the terror --not any fun at all. On the other hand, Dean ---well if waves were a lover, he'd be it--- that memory is one of joy, beauty, days of fun, and rides that were extraordinary with no horror, terror or fear --just totally glorious --the downside was knowing that while I was smiling --there were many unfortunate natives on the mosquito coast that WERE NOT PROPERLY INFORMED of the deadly side of Dean.
Damage Now reported in Violet,La.Possible Tornado.
You can see what is going on in Lafayette, LA on www.katctv.com or www.klfy.com
Tornado Reports (in CSV format)Link
Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1134 2 SW LAFAYETTE LAFAYETTE LA 3019 9205 ROOFS BLOWN OFF OF HOMES. BARN DESTROYED. SHERIFF REPORTS 15 TO 17 HOMES SUSTAINED DAMAGE. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (LCH)
1150 SCOTT LAFAYETTE LA 3024 9209 DAMAGE TO HOMES REPORTED NEAR SCOTT. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (LCH)
OK folks - off to work out east and feel like a piece of bacon sizzling a pan. Hopefully the breeze will be stronger out there, wish I could take the horses on a classtrip to the ocean --wouldn't that be fun!!!

Back this evening - Patrap, thanks for all the Burman updates - somehow my local paper thinks American Idol is more important (amazing that takes space on the front page!!!!Priorities????
FL panhandle just went under a tornado watch. Could be an interesting day...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 326 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON

IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA

BAY CALHOUN GULF HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... ABBEVILLE...ASHFORD...BLOUNTSTOWN... BONIFAY...CALLAWAY...CHIPLEY... COTTONWOOD...COWARTS... CRYSTAL LAKE... DALEVILLE...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS... ENTERPRISE... FIVE POINTS...FORT RUCKER...GENEVA...GRACEVILLE... HARTFORD... HEADLAND...HUDSON... INWOOD...KINSEY...LYNN HAVEN...LYNN HAVEN... MALONE...MALVERN...MARIANNA... OZARK...PANAMA CITY... PORT ST. JOE... REHOBETH...SAMSON...SLOCOMB...SNEADS... TAYLOR... UPPER GRAND LAGOON...WEBB... WEWAHITCHKA AND WHITE CITY.


239. Weather456 7:11 AM PDT on May 15, 2008
234. Tazmanian 9:57 AM AST on May 15, 2008
whats the update on the big H for this year??? what kind of set up will have this year its now may 15th is it this a little too soon to tell or is it time that we no what the setup will be like for this hurricane season

long range GFS continues to support a sprawling high across the Central Atlantic for atleast the next 2 weeks.

Beyond that, the ECMWF is forecasting lower than normal sea level pressure in the subtropical Atlantic during July, August and September which supports more or less negative values this hurricane season

so that means what come july and August and September ???
You know, the nice thing about living in Lafayette, LA was that we had good warnings about when something was heading our way, but...these tornados hit early this morning...most people were sleeping...most of us do not have weather radios...luckily the damage seems to be in business areas and few cars were on the road...
a lwer than usual sea level pressure in the central atl coupled with the other factors means an increase in cyclogenesis. the eastern atl tropical wave looks quite impressive in the last few frames. it is in an area of low wind shear and weak sal conditions. the negative factor in this wave developing is the low lat below 10 deg. it would be quite interesting if it could bulge around 10- 11 deg


Without a NOAA Weather Alert Radio,one cant react to the Danger.
Lead time is the only saving grace in a Tornado

Midland WRC-100 NOAA Alert Radio 30 Bucks Walgreens



Buy 2. Give one to a friend or Loved one.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
21:00 PM JST MAY 15, 2008


At 12:00 pm UTC, Tropical Depression [998 hPa] was upgraded to a tropical storm and was named "MATMO". The storm is located near 20.8N 126.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots and is reported moving north-northeast at 18 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
=================
150 NM east from the center
90 NM west from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 24.5N 132.3E - 40 knots [CAT 1]
48 HRS: 26.1N 138.8E - 35 knots [CAT 1]
Midland WRC-100 NOAA Alert Radio 30 Bucks Walgreens

---
I would like to add

Make sure you program it correctly or it will not work properly (I had experience of it not working)

When using S.A.M.E. coding for multiple counties make sure you leave the setting on the first S.A.M.E. entry for it to search for the coding you have programmed into the radio.
Morning y'all

Anyone know what is going on with Eumetsat?

For those in the line of fire today, stay safe!
Wow, 4.5 inches per hour???
I believe it. I personally saw US 190 in Covington, LA underwater...all 6 lanes, with dumpsters floating around in the road at about 8PM CDT. Wish I had my camera for that, although it WAS pouring and dark.

Also saw trees down in Tammany Hills (for those who know Covington), a number of roads underwater, and a couple of branches down at my home. Weird, though, although my couple of blocks is higher that all that is around it...my yard/ditches/etc...all empty. (Hence the moniker of Hills) I didn't expect the house to be flooding, but I didn't expect completely empty ditches, either. (And Liberty Mutual STILL will not write a homeowners policy...I think they need a geographer on staff)

Power company lost a transmission line too. That was fixed by about 9:30PM.

Details here.
Anyone know what is going on with Eumetsat?

The earth's rotation turned 90 degrees and it is dark in the northern hemisphere, daytime in the south. ;-) (I'll see what I can really find out)
so that means what come july and August and September ???

A high in the central atlantic similar to the 2 week GFS model
257. IKE
251. HouseofGryffindor 9:40 AM CDT on May 15, 2008
Is there any chance at all this mess could move down towards Tampa? We need the rain.


Looks like it's going to fizzle out before reaching central/south Florida.
One more thing about the wx radio:

Placement in the house is important, too.

IMO, don't place it next to the bed. When it goes off, you want to get up out of bed to reset. Placing it next to the bed might cause someone to hit it like a snooze alarm. Set it in a separate room, as loud as you can make it.
That sounds perfectly logical atmo...lol :~)

Morning to you!
SJ, Morning to you as well.

Looks like they had planned some brief outages for maintenance and calibration about the same time as the last image from Meteosat 9. wonder if they buggered it up.

See details (likely more than you can stand...includes MHz of transmission for most of the geophysical satellites) here.

Want to get on the Eumetsat status mailing list? Go here.
good morning everyone, i sure wish some of that rain could also make its way to southeast FL. we haven't had a good rain it seems in over 3-4 weeks.
good morning everyone, i sure wish some of that rain could also make its way to southeast FL. we haven't had a good rain it seems in over 3-4 weeks.

I keep seeing that, but I assure you that you want nothing to do with 4.5 inches in an hour. You guys could really use a moderate rain, but not that. The TOP of a hill is the only nice place to be for that, nothing else is built to drain at that rate.
I thought that was odd too HoG. Rarely do they ever do that.
Source: Xinhua News Agency

Date: 15 May 2008
ReliefWeb Link

Russia to send rescuers to quake-hit China Link


MOSCOW, May 15, 2008 (Xinhua via COMTEX News Network) -- Russian rescuers will fly to quake-hit China to take part in search and rescue operations, the Russian Emergency Ministry said Thursday.

"China is ready to accept a group of Russian rescuers and medics for participation in search and rescue operations and clearing the rubble in the country's affected areas. The Russian Emergencies Ministry's Il-76 plane is leaving for China tonight," the Ministry was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying in a press statement.

A Russian Emergency Ministry aircraft took off from Moscow Tuesday night, carrying 30 tons of humanitarian cargo to China, where a devastating earthquake has claimed over 19,500 lives in its southwestern Sichuan province.
Thanks atmo! Well, guess it is better they get it worked out now as opposed to when there is something really interesting out there!
268. JRRP
new tropical wave ???
SJ...looks kinda bleak for us tomorrow....
Yep press, I see the area is now entrenched in the slight risk area. Things may move through before daytime heating kicks in if we are lucky.
from your lips to Mother Nature's ears SJ....I've got one meeting after another all day out of the office and would just as soon not be running around in it...sent you some photos...
a very active itcz


Link
273. JRRP
what is the opinion about new tropical wave
Ah crap. Im about to get hit in the next two hours or so.
Good afternoon,

Tornados starting to crank up in Florida-Alabama area.........

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
5 products issued by NWS for: 4 Miles SSE Brantley AL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tornado Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

ALC039-041-151730-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0060.000000T0000Z-080515T1730Z/
COVINGTON AL-CRENSHAW AL-
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW AND NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 1205 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. THIS
STORM PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED A TORANDO WEST OF ANADALUSIA. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR EODA...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ANDALUSIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 37 MPH.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3161 8612 3155 8612 3152 8617 3138 8620
3135 8641 3139 8644 3164 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 1711Z 239DEG 33KT 3141 8635

279. JRRP
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 12Z ANALYSIS ALONG 47W S
OF 11N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN
TRACEABLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MIMIC TPW
ANIMATION...BUT WAS VERY MUCH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...
TODAY THE WAVE IS MORE DEFINED WITH VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWING
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE FIELD SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 6N...
ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGING FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA.
Wow, Covington getting 4.5 inches an hour...I just moved from there in June of '07; we had a number of 4 inch per hour storms when I was there (TS then Hurricane Cindy in '05 comes to mind). aggie, where in the area are you?
Just did some quick analysis on the new tropical wave just added to the Surface Map at 47W. There indeed is some definite low-level circulation developing and attempting to close at 8N 47W. Great catch by the NHC. It appears to have begun separating apart from the ITCZ. Don't know if this will last long, but I will watch it as it moves towards the Eastern Caribbean in the coming days.

Figure 2 - New Tropical Wave with Low-Level Turning (Source: NOAA Satellite Service Division 2008)
info for the surfers out there,there were surfers on Cape Cod this weekend enjoying 10 foot waves from that big east coast storm.
Mind you were talking water temps 48 deg.
Just performing basic analysis of the Tropical Atlantic and noticed something huge in terms of the upcoming season. Over the past week, wind shear has dramatically declined across the entire basin where the highest wind shear values are 50kts. Across the Atlantic, the average shear is around 20-25kts. It will be something that I monitor with close interest as it appears an upper-level anticyclone has begun overspreading the southern GOM and Western Caribbean.
The new tropical wave looks low amplitude in nature with very broad cyclonic turning. While upper level anticyclonic flow dominates the western central Atlantic, Upper level meridional flow from an negatively titled upper level trough is producing 30-40 knots of wind shear in the eastern Caribbean.
look at this. In Weston area of Broward County (SE Florida) current conditions right now:

Current Conditions


Near the Glades, Southwest Ranches, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 32 sec ago
95.4 °F / 35.2 °C
Clear
Humidity: 31%
Dew Point: 60 °F / 16 °C
Wind: 2.3 mph / 3.7 km/h / 1.0 m/s Variable
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h / 7.2 m/s
Pressure: 30.09 in / 1018.8 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 95 °F / 35 °C



Cool front came thru Tue/Wed so still low humidity thank goodness.
Going to have high's in mid 90's for next 4-5 days in a row down here in Broward county.

Will trade some 95 temps for about 3 inches of rain????
285. seflagamma 7:04 PM GMT on May 15, 2008
look at this. In Weston area of Broward County (SE Florida) current conditions right now:



Thats what A/C is for lol.
GFS is saying what the water vapor loop seems to suggest: the persistent dry air is on its way out in the southern Caribbean, and it'll be moist in a little over a week from now. The waters are warm and there's little shear, with no signs of either of these changing. That's our cue to be watchful.

Until then, I don't see much happening. Plenty of storms and warm sst anomalies off of Africa, but absolute temps are still not that great, and it'd be hard to make it too far west without being cut up by shear. I think our first chance of a real storm comes from the Caribbean, perhaps the weekend after this coming one.

It looks like we may well end up with a CV season overall, but for now, I think we need to keep our eyes west.

Everytime you post something with the computer models, I never see what you are referring to in them. Don't always get hyped up about computer models since the key words you used were "Last frames..."


Yes yes yes, CHCS I know about the Models, the "last frames" thing, the NAM/GFS thing, and the beginning season stuff.

Lets not repeat it 11 gazillion times again this year.

The Gulf is actually in season now. I was speaking of the change in general set up and the low area moving off the tex/mex border later in the week

The set up in the Gulf now is much more conducive to storms forming on stalled fronts and for a bit now the NAM will probably seem to be a better indicator of some of the early activity NEAR CONUS, that is until traditional tropical formation takes over, at which the GFS excels.
The set up in the Gulf now is much more conducive to storms forming on stalled fronts and for a bit now the NAM will probably seem to be a better indicator of some of the early activity, that is until traditional tropical formation takes over.

The Gulf has been filled with persistent high shear. You expecting a sudden break in it?
263. HouseofGryffindor "Since when does CNN.com make tornado warning breaking news on the top of the home page?"
264. Michfan "I thought that was odd too HoG. Rarely do they ever do that."

Possibly since they noticed that this is a very odd year.
Dr.Masters "It's been an unusually early and violent tornado season in the U.S. There have been 905 tornadoes so far this year, a total usually not seen until late July (Figure 1). Saturday's deaths bring the 2008 U.S. tornado death toll up to 96--the most tornado fatalities since 1998, when 130 people died. With at least another month left in peak tornado season, 2008 [already] ranks as the 12th deadliest year in the 59-year record."

Which might have been considered along with the Burmese news media's culpability for the unnecessary deaths caused by a MAJOR cyclone because eg
"warnings for Nargis on the day it made landfall...were buried on page 15 of the obituaries and miscellaneous section."
And what with the images coming from the Sichuan earthquake strongly reminding CNN's editors that death&destruction from natural events are very real, they might have decided that they were gonna do their best to prevent 2008 from setting a new record for tornado deaths.
You expecting a sudden break in it?

Yes actually, as pretty much always happens around this time and moving into the beginnings of june. The system over Louisiana this morning was a good example of how fast this can occur.

The clouds in there were quite high and cold, thats why I was so freaked out about it occurring at night and near the water. -

The beginning of the hurricane season is most closely related to the timing of increases in sea surface temperatures, convective instability, and other thermodynamic factors. [4] Although this month marks the beginning of the hurricane season, the month of June generally sees little activity, with an average of about 3 tropical cyclones per 5 years.

Tropical systems usually form in the Gulf of Mexico or off the east coast of the United States.


289. JFLORIDA 3:26 PM EDT on May 15, 2008

Everytime you post something with the computer models, I never see what you are referring to in them. Don't always get hyped up about computer models since the key words you used were "Last frames..."


Yes yes yes, CHCS I know about the Models, the "last frames" thing, the NAM/GFS thing, and the beginning season stuff.

Lets not repeat it 11 gazillion times again this year.

The Gulf is actually in season now. I was speaking of the change in general set up and the low area moving off the tex/mex border later in the week

The set up in the Gulf now is much more conducive to storms forming on stalled fronts and for a bit now the NAM will probably seem to be a better indicator of some of the early activity NEAR CONUS, that is until traditional tropical formation takes over, at which the GFS excels.


Agreed JFlorida. Hope you didn't take it personal. I will be watching that area very closely now.

No, no offense, this is just my favorite part of the season. Usually early on things are not that bad when they do develop a little, can be closely watched by all the toys, and provide Fla with much needed rain.
Good Afternoon all!
I see we now have yet another tropical wave, As if last night's new wave wasent enough. If i was to put a bet on it, The wave with the most potential right now would be the one closest to Africa, This is due to the current and future conditions.

The newest wave kind of poped out, I am guessing it parted from the ITCZ (Inter-tropical Convergence Zone).

CCHS: You seem to notice everything i notice, Later last week i noted the shear starting to suddenly decrease across the Atlantic, Especially in the Caribbean. Good observation yet again!
Drakoen,
What are is your take on the current SSTs?
Tropical Atlantic WV Loop with Dry-Air Shaded.Link

296. Smyrick145 7:54 PM GMT on May 15, 2008
Drakoen,
What are is your take on the current SSTs?


They are average in most place with the exception of the Eastern Atlantic. There are sign the the Golf of Mexico and Bahamian waters are heating up.
296. Smyrick145 3:54 PM EDT on May 15, 2008
Drakoen,
What are is your take on the current SSTs?

The overall tropical atlantic as about running at normal or a tad just above.The african coast is the warmest area at the present time with the MDR region along with western atlantic at normal levels or just a tad below.We'll see were we are at come mid july august through october.Ive added a few more useful links to view sst's to my Aircraft Recon And Marine Observations page.

296. Smyrick145 7:54 PM GMT on May 15, 2008
Drakoen,
What are is your take on the current SSTs?


I know i am not Drakoen but, The current SST's are near normal if you look at the whole Atlantic, Above normal near Africa, Normal in the Caribbean....above normal in the western Caribbean and partially normal in the Gulf, Northern Gulf is below normal. Hope that helps.

My take: Is that the whole Atlantic will continue to gradually warm as we approach the hurricane season, Perhaps reaching above normal levels ALL across the Atlantic.

The TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) is rather below normal but has been on the increase, I expect within the last week or so before hurricane season that the TCHP levels take a big increase.
297. Patrap 7:55 PM GMT on May 15, 2008
Tropical Atlantic WV Loop with Dry-Air Shaded



The Caribbean seems to look as if it might be changing to wetter conditions...Dry air is thinning.
Afternoon all :~)

Interesting discussions all!
299. hurricane23 8:03 PM GMT on May 15, 2008
296. Smyrick145 3:54 PM EDT on May 15, 2008
Drakoen,
What are is your take on the current SSTs?

The overall tropical atlantic as about running at normal or a tad just above.The african coast is the warmest area at the present time with the MDR region along with western atlantic at normal levels or just a tad below.We'll see were we are at come mid july august through october.Ive added a few more useful links to view sst's to my Aircraft Recon And Marine Observations page.
Not that i have a problem with it, Because i do the same (post links to my site) but i try to limit when i do it because i dont want to get banned, I guess it's alright before hurricane season when the blog isnt as active but you may want to chill a little with it because you dont want to get banned. Anyway just looking after you Hurricane23!
Hurricane Season Outlook

And thanks to the Admin for fixing my modify function.
lol everyone wants to answer the question directed to me. Its good.
The Anomaly map is a bit odd. El Nino now is looking like it wants to hang on or restrengthen, I had already wrote it off as dead.
306. JFLORIDA 4:15 PM AST on May 15, 2008
The Anomaly map is a bit odd. El Nino now is looking like it wants to hang on or restrengthen, I had already wrote it off as dead.


U mean La Nina right? If so....I have been seeing that too, but to be on the more reasonable and safe side...i wud place my bets for neutral conditions this season. Either way.....active hurricane season.
456, you get your mail?

thanks for the report...

lower than norm wind shear in the GOM...

waters warming up now....

waves are finally starting to spin up....


Its been sooo long since I've seen a hurricane on TV...........
SJ, I just notice I've received mail....sent back a reply.
neutral conditions this season. Either way.....active hurricane season.



Yea, if it turns out neutral (you know weather folks always change their mind as we get closer to the action) then we are in for a spin.

Man, what would a Wilma do here. With foreclosures, more people than ever on food stamps, layoffs, etc.... Wow, it would be interesting


ReliefWEB Link

Myanmar: Tropical Cyclone Nargis (as of 15 May 2008) - Situation Map# Date: 15 May 2008
# Type: Natural Disaster
# Keyword(s): Cyclone; Floods; Natural Disaster
# Format:
rw_TC_mmr080515.pdf PDF *, 3034 Kb MAP Link
Source: CARE

Date: 15 May 2008
ReliefWebLink

British public save lives in Myanmar
Link

Those who are in need of the publics support include sixteen-year-old Nyo Mynt, an inhabitant of the temporary camp of Myaung Myas, where some 30,000 survivors seek water, food and shelter. Nyo came alone: he lost five siblings and both his parents on the night of the cyclone destruction.

We were preparing our evening meal when the wind tore off the roof of our house, Nyo said. The water rose quickly. To make sure we stayed together, we tied ourselves to each other with a rope. At one point it broke and we all got washed away by the tide. I grabbed my mother with one hand with all my strength. We hit a tree that was floating adrift and I lost her. I was terrified and clung onto that tree the whole night.
I'm wondering with the gas prices soaring,where will the prices go if we get major storms in the gulf.
311. whirlwind 8:48 PM GMT on May 15, 2008
neutral conditions this season. Either way.....active hurricane season.



Yea, if it turns out neutral (you know weather folks always change their mind as we get closer to the action) then we are in for a spin.

Man, what would a Wilma do here. With foreclosures, more people than ever on food stamps, layoffs, etc.... Wow, it would be interesting


No it would not be interesting, That would be a nightmare. I understand the tropics are interesting to most of us to track and watch progress but i don't agree that it would be interesting to have a Wilma, Rita, Katrina, Felix or a Dean make landfall in the United states, Also as far as you not seeing a hurricane on t.v., Let it be that way, As far as i am concerned i dont want to see another hurricane on tv unless it's a fish storm.

314. NEwxguy 8:57 PM GMT on May 15, 2008
I'm wondering with the gas prices soaring,where will the prices go if we get major storms in the gulf.


It is predicted that they would reach as high as $10.00 a gal.


Hello.
Some people (me included) are hoping for some rain.
Some people are getting 4.5 inches per hour ?
Thats just not fair man.
Who is in charge here ?
LoL
It is predicted that they would reach as high as $10.00 a gal.

You got a link for that prediction? I know they would sky rocket, but I find 10$ hard to buy...literally!
314. NEwxguy 3:57 PM CDT on May 15, 2008
I'm wondering with the gas prices soaring,where will the prices go if we get major storms in the gulf.


See what happened in Myanmar:

Yangon residents said that the price of gasoline had jumped Sunday from $2.50 a gallon to $10 a gallon on the black market, and prices of everything from eggs to construction supplies had tripled.

Link
Hey CaneAddict & NEwxguy, it is the energy traders (speculators) saying that gas will hit $10 a gallon. Anything to scare the price up. I would say that if Crude prices were around $100/barrel when a major hurricane enters the GOM I would say that we would spike up to $130/barrel. At $125 a barrel we spike up to $140/barrel.

People have already been cutting back on their gas consumption as lower demand has led to a 14 million barrel surplus in crude over past month. The gasoline stocks are a lot tighter but inventory builds will likely happen as the price at the pump goes up.

Right now the economy is pretty weak & people just can't afford to pay much more for gas so I would say that this should keep the price from running too much higher this year. If prices go up high enough, it will cause a worldwide recession resulting in lower demand which will bring the prices back down.
"You expecting a sudden break in it?"

Yes actually, as pretty much always happens around this time and moving into the beginnings of june. The system over Louisiana this morning was a good example of how fast this can occur.


Yes, shear does usually break. My point is that it doesn't usually *suddenly* break. There's generally an average shear line across the Atlantic that migrates north as time progresses. Shear fluctuates a great deal, and you'll see periods of high shear above there and low shear below it, but overall, it's pretty consistant. And right now, it's too far south. Low shear hasn't even been dipping into the Gulf yet except for right by the Yucatan. I don't see how we'd have such a rapid change in shear patterns as for the gulf to go from "rarely even a brief drop in shear" to "relevant periods of shear-free air".

To put it another way: Last weekend, the border with 20-knot shear was averaging about 13N -- a little further north in the west, a little further south in the east. The 10-knot consistantly line hugs it a degree or two south of there. Now, 20 knots is about 15N (same tilt -- higher in the west, lower in the east). By the end of the four day forecast, looks like it'll be around 17N on average. For Gulf development, you're wanting it to be over 25N. That's not going to happen overnight. It's going to take time.

To put it another way: At the end of the four day forecast, shear over the northern Gulf is expected to be 90 knots.

Right now, the most likely place for meaningful development is the south Carribean, which has warm waters (as always) and low shear. But we need to wait for the dry air to move out of there (at least a week). That's been holding off development for now.
GainesvilleGator:

Gas prices will continue to rise this summer, if only for the fact that they don't get reflect the current price of crude (it takes a while to catch up). But you're right that a hurricane won't have that dramatic of an impact. Any temporary distruption can be compensated for by the strategic reserves. Destroying rigs would tighten the world oil supply, raising crude prices, (and subsequently gas prices) but certainly not tripling them.
Fuel prices will rise regardless of location of a landfall, but a Gulf storm will probably cause $7-9 a gallon fuel, simply due to the shut down of rigs and refineries. Florida is always in trouble with a storm (fuel price wise), but everyone got hit after Katrina and Rita
Howdy, folks, by the way...good to see Karenrei is spending sometime with us; always great info and posts!
If prices go up high enough, it will cause a worldwide recession resulting in lower demand which will bring the prices back down.

However, a global energy shortage (in other words Peak Oil), would devastate the modern world (oil is also widely used in growing food, so you better stock up and start growing your own). See here for more, including news (also gives a perspective on how much we would have to expand renewables, and the scale, to replace fossil fuels).
Agreed, STL; the only problem with renewables is that they are starting to cause food shortages by themselves...time for a good hard look at how all of these things are going to be done before we pass the Hibbert Peak (if we haven't already)
LOL..Not many Skinny Mericans.

Id hate to see them Pull those Super-Size Menus down and replace them with Veggie Fries and Tofu Burgers.
Well for starters, reasonably priced solar arrays and wind generators that feed back in to the system on EVERY house in the good ol US would be huge!!! The problem I see with that is the power companies would never let it happen...
Louisiana Sweet Crude


Light Sweet Crude Oil
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The contract trades in units of 1,000 barrels, and the delivery point is Cushing, Oklahoma, which is also accessible to the international spot markets via pipelines. The contract provides for delivery of several grades of domestic and internationally traded foreign crudes, and serves the diverse needs of the physical market.

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The NYMEX miNY crude oil futures contract, designed for investment portfolios, is the equivalent of 500 barrels of crude, 50% of the size of a standard futures contract. The contract is available for trading on the CME Globex electronic trading platform and clears through the New York Mercantile Exchange clearinghouse.
Platts Oil Reports
www.platts.com Oil market prices and daily reports

platts on oil.Link

Crude oil market 'reflects fundamentals': CFTC regulatory chief

Washington (Platts)--15May2008

Record high crude oil prices are reflective of tight supply and high
demand and not speculative trading activity, the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission surveillance head told Congress Thursday.

"(The) futures market is reflecting the fundamentals when it comes to
crude oil," John Fenton, the CFTC's deputy director of market surveillance,
told a House Agriculture subcommittee.

Speculators, he said, follow the trends in the market and do not set
prices. Still, the devaluation of the US dollar has contributed to the soaring
price of crude oil, added Fenton, saying that if oil prices were set in euros,
rather than US dollars, the price might be 25% less.
Matter of fact, you would think that we averaged over 1.5 stimulus checks per household. So lets say that is $1000 per household, and I think that may be a low figure. Now let's say that every household that makes over 150k is disqualified from this program. That likely means we are at around $2500 (estimated) per household that is left. Now instead of sending out stimulus checks the government contracted with a couple of solar array companies to start installing these on every house that met the threshold listed above. That would be big, and that would have an impact on the economy...

Granted I know it is not quite as easy as I make it sound, but we went to the moon in under ten years, and certainly we have the capability to make something like this happen.

Think what it would do for your power bill to be cut in half, and not only that but we are not using fossil fuels to do it either.

Again, will not happen since this would take money out of the high rollers pockets. A real shame that we can not take these kinds of initiatives.
Post 330, Patrap...didn't I read somewhere that there was some consideration being given to changing the currency for oil dealing?
The North American Monsoon ridge is on the move...Low wind shear values over the Western Caribbean. Gulf of Mexico is next. Typical as we near June.

Shear

Thanks Drakoen, Hurricane23 and Cane Addict
Yes ,flood ..but it was dismissed as soon as it came up.
Chavez..and Iran hinted, grrrrrrrrrrrrr.Link
Yep...that would be about right...
Putting solar panels on every roof isn't as simple as it sounds, because it takes quite a bit of resources to make them, and we would need to make a lot - all of the solar panels in the entire world right now are roughly eqivalent to just one power plant (China alone builds one every week or so):

Update, January 2008: By end of last year, there was just over 5,000 megawatts of solar pv cells installed worldwide. Operating at average efficiency of 20%, the combined output of all the pv cells in the world is now equal to the output of a single coal fired power-plant.


It would take close to 220,000 square kilometers of solar panels to power the global economy via solar power. This may sound like a marginally manageable number until you realize that the total acreage covered by solar panels in the entire world right now is a paltry 10 square kilometers.


Also, here is the kicker (source):

"Can't We Use a Combination of the Alternatives to Replace Oil?"


Absolutely. Despite their individual shortcomings, it is still possible for the world economy to run on a basket of alternative sources of energy - so long as we immediately get all of the following:

Need #1. A few dozen technological breakthroughs;

Need #2. An unprecedented degree political will, honesty, and bipartisan cooperation;

Need #3. Tremendous international collaboration;

Need #4. Massive amounts of investment capital;

Need #5. Fundamental reforms to the banking system;

Need #6. No interference or obfuscation from the oil industry

Need #7. About 25-50 years of general peace and prosperity to retrofit the world's $45 trillion dollar per year economy including transportation and telecommunication networks, manufacturing industries, agricultural systems, universities, hospitals, etc. , to run on these new source of energy.

Need #8. Rational and non-corrupt elected officials and capable government appointees to manage the generation long transition.

If we get all of the above, we might be able to get the energy equivalent of 3-5 billion barrels of oil per year from alternative sources.

That's a tremendous amount of oil - about as much as the entire world used per year during the 1950s, but it's nowhere near enough to keep our currently mammoth-sized yet highly volatile global economic system going. The world currently requires over 30 billion barrels/1.2 trillion gallons of oil per year to support economic growth. That requirement will only increase as time goes on due to population growth, debt servicing, and the industrialization of nations such as China and India.

So even if the delusionally optimistic 9-step scenario described above is somehow miraculously manifested, we're still facing a 70-90% reduction in the amount of energy available to us. A 70-90% reduction would be extremely painful, but not the "end of the world" if it wasn't for the fact that, as explained above, the monetary system will collapse in the absence of a constantly increasing energy supply. If a shortfall between demand and supply of 5% is enough to send prices up by 400%, what to you think a shortfall of 70-90% is going to do?

To make matters worse, even if the all of the above obstacles are assumed away, we are still faced with the problem of "economic doubling time." If the economy grows at a healthy clip of 3.5% per year, it doubles in size every 20 years. That growth must be fueled by an energy supply that doubles just as quickly. Thus, our total "energy debt" will have compounded itself by the time we have made any major strides in switching to alternative sources of energy.
SJ "I don't know why they call it common sense. It's the most uncommon thing around." Myra Lehman (childhood pastor's wife)
Smyrick145 Your welcome, I'll be glad to answer any of your questions anytime bud!
SVFF, I hear you loud and clear!

Putting solar panels on every roof isn't as simple as it sounds, because it takes quite a bit of resources to make them

I am also sure many said this about going to the moon...

That sounds like something that would actually help the economy. Put people to work. IE, The Blue Ridge Parkway, and the Roosevelt programs, except this will serve a greater purpose.

Next forget the world for a minute. Let's tackle the US first. Not saying everyone else can not be next, but in this case no sense in waiting because the world can not get along.

As for the typical, it's too hard, politics won't allow it, etc, etc, etc...It is all BS and until we learn to get passed that kind of crap we are going no where fast.

Continuous Improvement folks!
Hey Folks........IMHO (as yall are having some great conversation this afternoon on alternative fuel issues), these issues are becoming more pressing in the world as our current resource base dwindles. And just looking at what the US can do, our government has to dance a balancing act between keeping the economy strong (the corporate interests), and, not letting them go too far (profit margins)and letting the average American fall by the wayside..........This is a very complex issue, but, you cannot declare "war" on corporate interests (which do not care about the American people per se because their profit margins are increasingly global in nature and we have become economic pawns); we need, IMHO, a true partnership between the government and corporate interests which is dedicated to changing the current US energy source status quo and willing to compromise (profit margins) in favor of re-investing in alternative fuel sources......Problem is that I suspect that our government (democracy) has indeed been hijacked by "global" corporate America as well as by the foreign interests which have also invaded our own economy over the past 30 years.........Sorry to go off but today is my birthday (late 40's), I have young children, and I am very distressed by the prospect that my children will have it much harder than I did, over the past several decades, in this great country as the economy is tanking because of rampant corporate greed, and, the failure of our politicians to prevent this from happening......It sucks..........
The real solution involves increasing alternative energy, along with increasing efficiency. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use a quarter of the electric of incandescent, and LED's can use about 1/10. Hybrid automobiles are at least half again as efficient as normal vehicles. "Green" homes may use less than half the energy of their conventional counterparts. Alternative energy is only part of the solution.
Folks you may want to stick to discussing the topic of the blog or tropical weather.
lmao, sure thing CA, we will spend the next few days talking about nothing more the Myanar. Not to mention it is not really slammed in here right now.
Micheal, they got slammed last year too didn't they?
Right around this same time
345. StormJunkie 11:55 PM GMT on May 15, 2008
lmao, sure thing CA, we will spend the next few days talking about nothing more the Myanar. Not to mention it is not really slammed in here right now.


Gas prices arent part of the blog topic....And if you were meaning to be a smart, I dont appreciate it.
Yea, that is pretty clearly a hook and likely a nado.
CA, I am not going down this road for anymore then this post because it is pointless. Today I have seen you tell someone not to post their link in here and now you are telling us what to and not to talk about. It isn't your place.

If we get banned for it, then so be it. But it is our right to discuss what we so choose. If admin deems it inappropriate then they will let us know.

I am sorry alternative fuels do not interest you yet, but they will one day in your lifetime, I promise.
337. that's exactly the scenario I'm worried about. it might be time for household pv cells and a wind turbine...


/scary thought!
Hey How bout dem African Wave thingees..!

GOES-12 Atlantic Basin IR Image Link
WV Image Link
Low Cloud Product/Night IR Link
Thanks STL, that is the one I was thinking of.
geez! with such friendliness in the room, I'M usually the one accused of starting such rancor! LOL

"how 'bout them Astros?" !!! LOL
Ya, powerful storm now nearing Eagle Pass coming in from Mexico. Large hook echo, but no couplet as of yet.
Evening Pat and pearland :~)

That statement sounds like it was spoken by clem, pat!
A Skywarn spotter has reported a large, low wall cloud approximately 25 miles west of Eagle Pass.
356. Patrap 6:04 PM CST on May 15, 2008
Hey How bout dem African Wave thingees..!


Great Change Up Pat!.......Those thingies are very interesting in that the ITCZ has been very active for the past several weeks; doesn't bode well for the upcoming CV season, and , I agree with a blogger a few days ago who stated this this could end up being a classic "long track" season.......
Evening Pat, StormJunkie.

I didn't even SEE Pat's remark about the Afreekin' waves! LOL
SJ

At one time you were a fan of Consensus models and some of them are changing this year.

Consensus Models and alternates:

Consensus name :GUNA “Fixed Track Consensus”
Require at least ... :4 (all req'd)
Input models :GHMI NGPI EGRI AVNI
Alternate models :GHM2 NGP2 EGR2 AVN2

Consensus name :TCON “Fixed Track Consensus”
Require at least ... :5
Input models :AVNI EGRI NGPI GHMI HWFI
Alternate models :AVN2 EGR2 NGP2 GHM2 HWF2

Consensus name :ICON “Fixed Intensity Consensus”
Require at least ... :4 (all req'd)
Input models :DSHP LGEM GHMI HWFI
Alternate models : GHM2 HWF2

Consensus name :TVCN “Variable Track Consensus”
Require at least ... :2
Input models :AVNI EGRI NGPI GHMI HWFI GFNI EMXI
Alternate models :AVN2 EGR2 NGP2 GHM2 HWF2 GFN2 EMX2

Consensus name :IVCN “Variable Intensity Consensus”
Require at least ... :2
Input models :DSHP LGEM GHMI HWFI GFNI
Alternate models : GHM2 HWF2 GFN2


Discontinued or deprecated models:
CONU - replaced by TVCN
CCON - replaced by TVCC
GUNS - discontinued
GENA - GUNA modified to use EGRR tracker instead of UKM tracker
CONE - discontinued
INT4 – discontinued
and even a good evening to you, STL! :)
Evening TN

Ok all, I am off to work. Another Lowes needs irrigation to keep them spensive plants from dying and so they can save money on the person who was paid to water them, but did an insufficient job on half of them so those died and cost them more money...
Saw the Astros vs Rockies about a Month ago at Minute Maid Park...courtesy of Oreodog.

Was good time.

WV Atlantic Loop,Dry-Air shaded Link
Thanks nrti! Can you WUmail me that or give me a link to it.

See y'all later
Radar shows a TVS and some rotation; it also appears to be headed more southeast so it may miss Eagle Pass:

later SJ! happy watering!

where do you live, Patrap?
that kind of looks like a hook echo, but i'm no meteorologistical kind of person! :)
Where did you hear that from?

Spotter Network.
Link
Yup,the Ol Atlantic,Gom,Carb is warming up in the Bullpen as we speak,
Sun Angle still has one month and a week to Max. Then a 2 Month seasonal Lag to Warm it all up.


Bamm!!"(medium)" come late Aug & Sept
Toss in a Active Wave machine and Presto.
Long Track Cape Verde Canes westbound.

Buckle up..the seson is only weeks away now.BAreley a fortnight fer us Old folks..LOL
<---New Orleans Uptown Near Mannings.Archie that is.

I have neat Video I shot from the Porch today as the T-storm/Squall came thru.Wind was the Moaning GAle FOrce kind.

Storm Report had trees Uprooted about a mile east of me at the same time.

T-Storm with Squall Line here this am.
The trees were Large Oaks a Few Blocks east of me here.

Wind Reports (in CSV format)
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1400 UNK NEW ORLEANS
ORLEANS PARISH LA 2997 9008 TREES DOWN IN UPTOWN NEW ORLEANS (LIX)

This is crazy! Saying there's going to be a hurricane in the last week of September when it's still May (and this book was released late last year I believe) is just insane! Just how credible is this book (I think it's actually widely bought)?


(Mid Atlantic Region)
Expect a hurricane in the last week of September. Otherwise, September and October will be slightly drier than normal, with near-normal temperatures.
Katrina didnt bend um...dont spect a lil t-storm will.

I was trying out a new Lil vid toy. LOLLink
354. StormJunkie 12:02 AM GMT on May 16, 2008
CA, I am not going down this road for anymore then this post because it is pointless. Today I have seen you tell someone not to post their link in here and now you are telling us what to and not to talk about. It isn't your place.

If we get banned for it, then so be it. But it is our right to discuss what we so choose. If admin deems it inappropriate then they will let us know.

I am sorry alternative fuels do not interest you yet, but they will one day in your lifetime, I promise.


StormJunkie, I told Hurricane23 to calm down on posting a link to his site ever few post's because i was looking after him, I have seen folks (including me once) get banned for posting a link to our sites. Hurricane 23 has a very informative site, Even more then mine but i would hate to see him get banned over something as ridiculous as posting a link. I have also witnessed folks get banned for talking about something completely different then the blog topic or tropical weather, Just looking out for everyone thats all. I guess untill the blog gets packed during hurricane season, The admin don't care what we talk about as long as it's not innapropiate.

Sorry to offend you or others if i did.
LSU ESL Site Link
Anyway folks, As always around this time i post my blog update, That's where im heading, Ill be back.
Just how credible is this book (I think it's actually widely bought)?

For my area, almost a total bust:

Winter will be about two degrees above normal, on average, with slightly below-normal precipitation. The coldest temperatures will occur in early December, early and mid- to late January, and mid-February. Snowfall will be near normal in Iowa and below normal elsewhere, with the heaviest snowfalls in mid-December, early to mid-January, and late February.

April and May will have above-normal temperatures, with near-normal rainfall. Early and late May will be especially warm.


Reality: Winter was warmer (correct) and much snowier than average (wrong; they were only correct about heavy snow in mid-December, wrong about the other times) and EXTREMELY WET (wrong); April and May so far have been pretty cold and wet (record rainfall to date in fact):

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1147 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2008

...WETTEST START OF THE YEAR FOR ST. LOUIS...

THROUGH MAY 11TH...ST. LOUIS MISSOURI HAS OBSERVED 22.34 INCHES
OF RAINFALL WHICH IS 9.20 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF 13.14
INCHES. THIS RANKS AS THE MOST RAINFALL EVER RECORDED BETWEEN
JANUARY 1ST AND MAY 11TH
(1893-2008). BELOW IS THE TOP TEN WETTEST
YEARS FOR THIS PERIOD.


May so far (based on CPC outlooks, early and late May will likely be cool, with above normal temperatures during the next week or so and continued wet):

[TEMPERATURE DATA]
AVERAGE MONTHLY: 60.4
DPTR FM NORMAL: -3.5

[PRECIPITATION DATA]
TOTAL FOR MONTH: 4.06
DPTR FM NORMAL: 2.22

Oh, and this:

SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL
TOTAL MONTH: T

Given how the year so far has turned out, they will likely be correct about temperatures this summer, but totally wrong about precipitation:

Summer will be slightly cooler and drier than normal. The hottest temperatures will occur in early and mid- to late June and mid- to late July.



Really, I think the Almanac is rubbish.
Used to for Chevron. In the Mid 90's.

You a Mudlogger type or a Data reader?
I liked Offshore,till I had two children.
Was too hard on Mom.
So I left the Field work for Onshore.
Murphy Oil Has a refinery here in St. Bernard Parish Hard Hit by Katrina East of the City. Used to do the Gunite work on that Catcracker with my Dad in the late 70's.Worked most of them between here and Baton Rouge.
Dad Did furnance repair,Union Work for Pullman Kellogg,Now Kellog Brown and Root,Phooey,spit.

LOL and J. T. Thorpe then. Dupont,Monsanto,Kaiser,..Tenneco,Shell.All the Major Catcrackers..we did the Turnaround refractory work on them suckas.
dayum, pat....you're starting to sound like an old man! LOL
Patrap,
If you dont mind me asking, what aspect of the oil and gas industry are you in? I only ask because I am as well in the oil and gas industry.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 5N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. MORE SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN
15W AND 22W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR
9N18W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN
INVERTED-V PATTERN IS PRETTY WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
7N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS S OF 8N. THE SSMI-DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE.

THE THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA/EASTERN
COLOMBIA WITH IT AXIS ALONG 71W/72W. A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE
ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION BETWEEN THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE
GUAJIRA PENINSULA CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE THAT IS
ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N23W 5N26W 3N36W 5N47W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER SIERRA LEONE
AND GUINEA. THE REST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.
Good night all! See you all tomorrow.
Wow, it looks like the African wave train is beginning early...
Yeah, wow, look.

404. HurricaneGeek 12:56 AM GMT on May 16, 2008
Yeah, wow, look.


That's one of three tropical waves across the basin....Definitely interesting but it is normal to start seeing waves rolling about at this time.

This supports that fact that we are in for a busy cape verde season, perhaps alot of long-trackers.
Ok... some need to look OUTSIDE the box.

If Im paying $4 a gallon instead of $3, lets say thats extra $20 a week, extra $80 a month. Thats nothing. You still having V8's driving around and Benz's and Bmw's and so on.


Risind food prices and gas prices is a way to put a bigger gap between the POOR and the upper class. Thats how you isolate and get rid of people the government or certain 'associations' dont want.

For example: Some 'hood' moves in to your neighboorhood. Brings more. HOA has a meeting and raises the fees. I can afford it. But to get rid of those scum, thats the only way of doing it without a lawsuit or seeming racist. IT WORKS.
Its been done before and Ive seen it.
I left the Oil Business in 2002 to take care of my Ailing Parents.
I did Drill work offshore for Chevron.

Mostly outta Fourchon and Venice.



Time will tell, we are getting closer and closer to that "time". The Bermuda High is a VERY important player in the scheme of things.
Good evening.
Not a sign of rain from those last 2 waves that threatened. They were both shredded. Now, there are 3 more. The upper level wind dynamic is changing, and is providing a better condition daily.
Right now, there is a big circle around the moon, and I would
say we will get some showers tonight and tomorow. Looking at the Sat.Images and loops, we are just on the cusp of some shower activity to our southeast.

Temps today were 94 again. Some showers would be fine,
Hi Pottery...I was looking at the GFS model, and it looks like we are in for some rain, over the next couple of weeks (starting early next week)...
is there a high way 183 in TXS???
I know I might get banned advertising another website, however, Hurricanetrack.com is interviewing Dr. Lyons from the Weather Channel and it is very interesting stuff. I love this blog and hope I don't get banned but I felt like I should share this information.
Dude77.
They said we were in for some rain last week as well LOL
But the way things are shaping up, I would agree with the GFS on that.
There are showers just a couple miles off the southeast coast now, and they are expected over my house (by me) before dawn !
Wish me luck heheh
HurricaneTrack.com here.Live Interview with Dr. Steve Lyons Link

UPDATED: 4:20 pm, May 15, 2008
TONIGHT ON HURRICANETRACK NEWS/TALK: DR. STEVE LYONS

We have a great edition of HurricaneTrack News/Talk planned for tonight. Our guest will be Dr. Steve Lyons who is the well-known voice of reason from The Weather Channel. Dr. Lyons' expertise in hurricanes, their science and their impacts have made him a trusted resourse for several years at The Weather Channel. Many people may not know this, but Dr. Lyons came from the National Hurricane Center to take the job in Atlanta for TWC. We'll talk with him about that move and much more tonight beginning at 9pm ET.

We are also very pleased to announce our very first promotion during the program. We are going to give away a Water Bob during tonight's program. What is Water Bob? Check out the link below for a video introduction to this innovative solution to hurricane planning needs. Listen in during tonight's program to learn how you can win one for your home. Again, that's 9pm ET right here on the homepage- all you have to do is tune in and listen.
I'm thinking the tropical wave in the EATL (around 23W), might contribute to some rainfall next week. Oh, and that's a BIG might, LOL...
Thanks Patrap
I'm out. Good night all. Keep safe.
LATER POTTERY
I notice most think there will be above average hurricane season.Are they any factors that does not support this?
Hey can anyone help me out, I'm trying to find the average number of hurricanes in the east pacific and also what they are expecting for their hurricane season this year. I'm not even sure if someone does that for the pacific like CSU does for the Atlantic because honestly I dont know much when it comes to pacific cyclones, so any help from you more knowledgable folks would be great. Thanks!
427. A4Guy
Does anyone know about the supposed correlation between between a dry May in FL and an active H-cane season?
It has been very dry here in Broward for several weeks.
the West Pacific is now up to TS 5W and now we have 97W and its olny 15 days in to may or so i sure up the Atlantic dos not get the same way the West Pacific right now
It makes no sense, it feels like they [the government] want these people to die," said one aid worker, who asked not to be identified as
Burma
i would want to start watching the Caribbean wind shear has drop to olny 5kt to 20kt right now that is vary low wind shear for this time of year all so wind shear is low els where has well





Too much dry air in the caribbean now.
The Caribbean has been very subsident and the models continue to show this pattern persisting for the next week or so with some moisture return to the Southern Caribbean in association with the ITCZ the typical low that comes of South America.
Hey can anyone help me out, I'm trying to find the average number of hurricanes in the east pacific and also what they are expecting for their hurricane season this year.

The averages are 15 storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes; NOAA will release their outlook later this month (likely predicting below average activity due to La Nina, although the water there has been pretty warm, which is the main factor that influences East Pacific activity).

*I got the numbers from here, I think the East Pacific outlook is released when the Atlantic outlook comes out.
435. JRRP
Does anyone know by looking at your models, when the cen.FL area can expect some rain??? We are burning up here (literally) in some areas in Brevard. Texas, send us some of your rain.... :)
436. orlandocanewatcher 1:06 AM EDT on May 16, 2008
Does anyone know by looking at your models, when the cen.FL area can expect some rain??? We are burning up here (literally) in some areas in Brevard. Texas, send us some of your rain.... :)


Not any rain in sight for the next 60 hours.
I was hoping for rain from the GOM but its not looking good.
Gom storm off S Texas:

Gulf of Mexico - AVN Color Infrared Loop

We are into that nighttime strengthening stuff again.
Evening JF, up late too huh!
yea don't work tonight but cant shake the night shift!

Did u see the GOM storm?


Thats a nice one for so late. This always happens like this around this time. Stuff goes crazy at night.
Sorry JF, was in the middle of something else....You talking about the Tex/Mex area? Some serious storms down there.

Wunder if this clearing from the storms earlier today could lead to some rough weather for the SE during daytime heating?



We need rain so bad. I hope it lasts across Fla.
Not sure that will make it there, but looks like you at least have a chance of pops? Would be better then nothing. Looks like the GA/SC area is back in the slight risk for tomorrow. Looks to be seabreeze interaction with some other features.
more Rain for VA, VA needs this rain like Florida needs more Drought
pouring rain here this morning on the Gulf Coast
question of the morning.........this was discussed last night on another weather site....

it's the end of the month, a storm enters the Gulf, gas prices shoot up to 6.00 a gallon. How will this effect many low income ppl, who won't be able to fill their tanks to evac out?
the wave train is on the move. most of the waves existing africa are very south of 10 deg n. is this a sign that we are heading for storms of low latitude this season? although forecasts are to the contrary we will have to wait and see where the Bermuda/Azores high will be positioned this summer.
456
is the increas in tropical waves so early in the season a precursor of things to come?
numbers are one thing but these tropical waves have been well-define. There is a direct correlation between Rainfall in western Sahel and the health of tropical waves which increases the number of not just named storms, but hurricanes and major hurricane counts. So basically to answer ur question...yes.
Hope these things don't get into the GOM, it should really start heating up soon...
Disasters always make headlines, even imaginary ones.
Policy decisions should be based on solid science.
When it comes to the environment, science has been polluted by politics.

False prophets of doom Environmentalists would prefer that we forget these predictions

WALTER WILLIAMS Creators Syndicate

Now that another Earth Day has come and gone, let's look at some environmentalist predictions that they would prefer we forget.

At the first Earth Day celebration, in 1969, environmentalist Nigel Calder warned, "The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind." C.C. Wallen of the World Meteorological Organization said, "The cooling since 1940 has been large enough and consistent enough that it will not soon be reversed."

In 1968, Paul Ehrlich, Vice President Gore's hero and mentor, predicted there would be a major food shortage in the U.S. and "in the 1970s ... hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death." Ehrlich said 65 million Americans would die of starvation between 1980 and 1989, and by 1999 the U.S. population would have declined to 22.6 million. Ehrlich's predictions about England were gloomier: "If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000."

World `likely to be ruined' by 2000

In 1972, a report was written for the Club of Rome warning the world would run out of gold by 1981, mercury and silver by 1985, tin by 1987 and petroleum, copper, lead and natural gas by 1992. Gordon Taylor, in his 1970 work "The Doomsday Book," said Americans were using 50 percent of the world's resources and "by 2000 they [Americans] will, if permitted, be using all of them." In 1975, the Environmental Fund took out full-page ads warning, "The World as we know it will likely be ruined by the year 2000."Harvard University biologist George Wald in 1970 warned, "... civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind." That was the same year that Sen. Gaylord Nelson warned, in Look Magazine, that by 1995 "... somewhere between 75 and 85 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct."

It's not just latter-day doomsayers who have been wrong; doomsayers have always been wrong. In 1885, the U.S. Geological Survey announced there was "little or no chance" of oil being discovered in California, and a few years later they said the same about Kansas and Texas. In 1939, the U.S. Department of the Interior said American oil supplies would last only another 13 years. In 1949, the Secretary of the Interior said the end of U.S. oil supplies was in sight. Having learned nothing from its earlier erroneous claims, in 1974 the U.S. Geological Survey advised us that the U.S. had only a 10-year supply of natural gas. According to the American Gas Association, there's a 1,000 to 2,500 year supply.

Here are my questions: In 1970, when environmentalists were making predictions of manmade global cooling and the threat of an ice age and millions of Americans starving to death, what kind of government policy should we have undertaken to prevent such a calamity?

When Ehrlich predicted that England would not exist in the year 2000, what steps should the British Parliament have taken in 1970 to prevent such a dire outcome?

In 1939, when the U.S. Department of the Interior warned that we only had oil supplies for another 13 years, what actions should President Roosevelt have taken?

Why believe them this time?


Finally, what makes us think that environmental alarmism is any more correct now that they have switched their tune to manmade global warming?

A few facts: Over 95 percent of the greenhouse effect is the result of water vapor in Earth's atmosphere. Without the greenhouse effect, Earth's average temperature would be zero degrees Fahrenheit. Most climate change is a result of the orbital eccentricities of Earth and variations in the sun's output. And natural wetlands produce more greenhouse gas annually than all human sources combined.

Walter Williams
what is even more ominous is that sst are on the increase in the MDR , wind shear is beginning to slacken and the SAL seems to be very weak this year. we are in for a very active season
We are supposed to get some Florida rain 2DAY! We need it for plants and to keep the wildfires down.
Those waves washing off Africa do look like an impressive bunch all clustered like that.
Where can I look to see the sheer climate along the Atlantic track again? It has been a while since I have looked.
Hope everyone has a peaceful Friday.
About gas and evacuation.

I heard the refineries were only running at 80% capacity to keep the prices up. If that is true, we could lose one in 5 and still deliver the same amout of gas produced right now.
Operating below peak capacity does have THAT benefit.
Good Morning All.....Ahh, nice frontal remnants heading into the Gulf this am gettng ready to bring some much needed rain to Florida...If only it was mid-June to mid-July so we could get a real nice soaking from a few tropical storms........Guess I'll have to keep watering my dying lawn until then, but, it is very warm and humid this am in the Florida Panhandle; looks like the typical Summer weather pattern has arrived.....
I heard the refineries were only running at 80% capacity to keep the prices up. If that is true,

Ummm. I think it probably has more to do with oil ( you know, the stuff they make gasoline from ) hitting nearly $130 a barrel today, which is well over a doubling in price during the last 12 months.
Link to BBC blog. Reporter in Sichuan:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/jamesreynolds/2008/05/buried_under_rubble.html
Good morning all! Based upon my current analysis, we have four tropical waves that exist in the Atlantic. We all know about the three waves mentioned by the NHC, but I believe we have a new tropical wave emerging off Africa. Will have to wait for confirmation, but that is what I am seeing right now. Anyone else seeing this?
yes there are four waves and there is definitely one exiting the african coast. the one at 27w south of 11n looks quite impressive on recent sat pics
GOES-12 Atlantic WV Loop with DRY AIR shaded Link
the tropical wave train off the african coast




Link
To be sure..the Limited refining Capacity is at Capacity.
One has to produce Fuel to sell it.
One cant do it if running at 80%.
Also the refiners are switching over to Summer Blend processes now.

National PetroChemical and Refiners AssociationLink

Boutique Fuels Link
Personal Tropical Weather Discussion for Friday, May 16

Figure 1 - Western Atlantic Satellite (Source: University of Wisconsin CIMSS Images 2008)

Figure 2 - Eastern Atlantic Satellite (Source: University of Wisconsin CIMSS Images 2008)
Right now, we have three confirmed tropical waves across the Tropical Atlantic.

At this time, we have a tropical wave on 26W between 4N to 10N moving westbound. This was the impressive tropical wave I mentioned in yesterday's discussion, but the structure is not well-defined. Satellite imagery seems to indicate some broad low-level circulation, but it remains too far south for the circulation to get better organized.

Our next tropical wave as we move across the Atlantic and towards home exists at 49W between 3N to 8N, also moving westbound towards northern South America. In terms of structure, this remains the most defined as there is evident low-level turning occurring and there exists a decent moisture surge that could lead to some shower and thunderstorm development over the wave axis. But again, it remains too far south for the circulation to get better organized and will enter an area with higher wind shear soon that will remove any thunderstorms from the wave, but will not completely destroy the structure.

I'm surprised the NHC (National Hurricane Center) has continued tracking a tropical wave that moved into South America three days ago. It does not look like a tropical wave anymore as it has lost its structure overland. The supposed weak tropical wave exists over the Columbian/Venezuelan border at around 74W and between 5N to 9N. The wave is causing showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area, but should no longer be classified as a tropical wave based upon my analysis.

In my opinion, there exists a fourth tropical wave in the Atlantic, but it has not been designated by the NHC. The tropical wave I have analyzed just emerged off Africa last night. I have tracked this across Africa the past few days as it seemed to resemble a classic developing tropical wave. There has been a noted increase in convection in the southern end of the wave axis, but no low-level turning just yet. I will have to continue watching this wave for further development, but none is expected in the coming days as there remains very dry air to the north.

No computer models are suggesting tropical development anytime soon, which is not at all unusual. But, computer models begin to break down the extreme dry air in the Caribbean and depict a moisture surge moving through the region and possibly starting the rainy season for South Florida by late next week.

All in all, no tropical development is expected within the next 24 to 48 hours across the entire Tropical Atlantic. Just a sidenote, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season began yesterday. Since I have an audience that needs to know about any storms in the Eastern Pacific, I will cover any active storms in the Eastern Pacific as well this year, but will not have a Tropical Weather Discussion for the region.
Source: Deutsche Presse Agentur (DPA)

Date: 16 May 2008
ReliefWebLink

Myanmar government says cyclone death toll tops 43,000
Link

Bangkok/Yangon_(dpa) _ The official death toll from Cyclone Nargis has increased to 43,318, Myanmar state-run media reported, but relief organizations said Friday the number of dead could be much higher.

Myanmar state television reported that in addition to the confirmed death toll of 43,318 people, another 1,403 were injured and 27,838 remained missing.

Representatives of some of the 16 aid organizations working together for cyclone relief said in Bangkok a true figure of dead and missing is difficult to determine, but put it somewhere between the Myanmar military government's combined 70,000 and the 130,000 the Red Cross has estimated.
LSU ESL site..Link
All- I usually only comment in the blog when it has to do with response to a disaster, but I have a met question. In reading modeling info, what do the features located off the North East Coast of Florida and in the Area in the SW Carribean Down by Central America depict in this model at 384 hours or Sun, June 1? I know that they are not reliable that far out but was just wondering what I was looking at.
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Picture did not show up here is the link Link
Happy now Patrap?!
The Long Range is Just a Window into the Future.
If one would see the trend at 7 days out from today.I'd give it some credence.
Long range models,those out more than 96 hours are ..not as reliable as those within the 96hour mark.
Persistents thru time is what one wants to see for Possible Cyclone Development.

Its a interesting note though and climatology Favors that area and the GOM , Bay of Campeche area as well. We dont look Far east to Africa till later in the season.

Good to see ya again FRick.
Dude..the rules are the rules.
Get your own Blog here and Link away to ones Hearts desire.
I surly dont want the Public relying on that info...
Much happier TYVM.
Patrap-
I follow what you are saying and would definately not rely on anything that far out. I was more interested in what the picture depicts. Are those two colored bulls eyes how tropical systems or lows depicted? I was interested so that when looking at closer range modeling I knew what to look for. Thanks
Yes..a closed low with differnt rings of color denote a Tc.Or Low
Thanks for the answer. I always look forward to reading your input. Veteran to Veteran you always have to trust your battle buddy to get your back.
Semper Fi..I hear that FRick.

Off to sons Graduation.

Have a nice morning everyone.
481. A4Guy
Does anyone know about the supposed correlation between between a dry May in FL and an active H-cane season?
It has been very dry here in Broward for several weeks.
GFS (now) hinting at a little low pressure in the Southern BOC (didn't before)
in 48 hours on top of the warm anomaly that has persisted there. I know - nothing. Still, the M8B model saw the same thing 3 days ago, moisture returning there including some drifting overhead from the EPAC (does that warming nino 1 region add to that?), pressures low (earlier) on end of old front, shear relaxed some. Maybe a trend, maybe just cannon fodder for bloggers. LOL I'm watchin' it.
new blog up
diurnal min as well as shear are taking the punch out of these early waves.