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Monsoon Floods Kill 420 in India and Pakistan

By: Jeff Masters 3:09 PM GMT on September 09, 2014

Torrential monsoon rains of over 12" (305 mm) lashed the India-Pakistan border region of Kashmir and Jammu Provinces on September 3 - 7, triggering devastating floods that swept through the mountainous region, killing at least 420 people, according to Reuters. Thousands more have been trapped by flood waters, and on the Indian side of the border, over 2,000 villages have been inundated, along with the major city of Srinagar. The heavy rains fell in what has been a below-average monsoon season, with rainfall from June 1 - September 3 totaling 15% below average over India and 32% below average over the flood-hit northern provinces of Jammu and Kashmir, according to the India Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. A temple is partially submerged in floodwaters in Jammu, India, Saturday, Sept. 6, 2014. (AP Photo/Channi Anand)


Figure 2. Precipitation totals for the seven-day period ending at 18 UTC September 8, 2014, show that up to 14" (356 mm) fell along the India-Pakistan border in Kashmir. Image credit: NASA/TRMM.


Figure 3. MODIS true-color image of a powerful monsoon low over the India-Pakistan border region of Kashmir on September 5, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Catastrophic floods: the new normal in Pakistan
In Pakistan, where at least 207 people died in the past weeks' flooding, crippling and catastrophic floods have become the new normal. The past four consecutive monsoon seasons--2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010--have all seen top-five most expensive flood disasters in Pakistani history. The worst came in 2010, when the second heaviest monsoon rains of the past 50 years triggered rampaging floods that inundated one-fifth of the country, killing 1,985 people and causing a staggering $9.5 billion in damage--4% of the nation's GDP--according to the International Disaster Database, EM-DAT. Part of the reason for the increase in destructive flooding is due to poor flood control infrastructure, combined with a rising population and ineffective government policies.


Figure 4. Kashmiri residents struggle to withstand sudden and strong water currents while wading through floodwaters in their efforts to move to safer places in Srinagar, India, Thursday, Sept. 4, 2014. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin)

Heavy monsoon rainfall events are increasing
A warming climate loads the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased during those 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." However, a 2011 study by Ghosh et al., "Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes", cautioned that the observed increase in heavy precipitation events in India had a very complicated pattern that was not easily quantified. In general, we should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades. However, my greater concern for India is drought. The monsoon rains often fail during El Niño years, and more than 4.2 million people died in India due to droughts between 1900 - 2012. Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. It is uncertain whether of not the Green Revolution can keep up with India's booming population, and the potential that climate change might bring more severe droughts. Climate models show a wide range of possibilities for the future of the Indian monsoon, and it is unclear at present what the future might hold. However, the fact that one of the worst droughts in India's history occurred in 2009 shows that serious droughts have to be a major concern for the future. The five worst Indian monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for the nation:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

References
Ghosh et al., "Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes", Nature Climate Change 2, 86–91 (2012) doi:10.1038/nclimate1327

Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.

Over 500 killed in India's Monsoon Floods, my June 21, 2013 blog post

Tropical Wave 91L
A tropical wave (91L) located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images show 91L has a moderate amount of spin and a limited amount thunderstorm activity, and these thunderstorms are poorly organized. The disturbance is embedded in a moist air mass, has moderately warm (SSTs) of 28°C (83°F) beneath it, and is experiencing light wind shear. These conditions favor development. The 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain light to moderate ( 5 - 15 knots) the atmosphere at mid-levels of the atmosphere (between 500 - 700 mb) will remain moist, favoring development. All three of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict development of 91L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 30% and 70%, respectively. A trough of low pressure expected to push off the U.S. East Coast early next week should induce a more northwesterly track for 91L next week, and the disturbance does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen if 91L will be a long-range threat to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, or the Canadian Maritime Provinces late next week.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at the tropics as well as a discussion of the record rainfall in Arizona yesterday in his latest post.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses the records rains in Arizona on Monday in his latest post.


97 Hours of Consensus
On Sunday, 9/7, the climate change myth-debunking website skepticalscience.com launched their 97 Hours of Consensus campaign addressing one of the most significant and harmful myths about climate change. Each hour, beginning at 9am Sunday, September 7, they began publishing a playful, hand-drawn caricature of a leading climate scientist along with a statement by them regarding climate change. Each caricature lists the scientists’ name, title, expertise and academic institution. 97 Hours of Consensus communicates the fact that 97% of climate scientists have concluded that humans are causing global warming. The research, conducted by scientists at The University of Queensland’s Global Change Institute, University of Reading, Michigan Technological University and Memorial University of Newfoundland found that 97% of relevant climate papers endorsed human-caused global warming. The paper was published in the academic journal Environmental Research Letters in May 2013. You can see the scientists without names at http://sks.to/97--click on the character for their name, quote, institution and expertise. Also watch as the 3% of dissenting scientists get added to the crowd. All the full quotes (with links to source and scientist bio page) are available at http://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?c=9.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

502. Siker
Quoting KoritheMan:
Bring on the hurricane. Bring on the hurricane.

Sincerely, a tropical-hungry Louisiana resident.

Ah, who I'm kiddin'? Nothing's going to happen. :3


Yesss Kori, give up hope! That way something's bound to come here :).
Quoting 502. Siker:



Yesss Kori, give up hope! That way something's bound to come here :).


I'm so bored, lol. I could tolerate anything up to a Category 3 making landfall. Gustav was a 2 even as far as Baton Rouge and we fared pretty well, significant power disruption notwithstanding.

But I just don't see it. The shear will probably not be strong, but it will be northerly, which is not a good situation for a northwestward-moving disturbance.
Quoting 491. Pallis1:

Jed, I always liked you too. I can see how we can profit off of global warming by fake fighting the system that creates the products that people need, while encouraging them to have babies under a socialist system. Plastic makes all things possible. Kraft is not king though. Dukes is the best Mayo. I suggest that you just shut up and get every piece of paper on your wall until it looks like wallpaper, and then voice your opinion. Me, I don't care because I will always make a profit. Do not get political until you are the master of it.


You are very hard to follow someti....usually. You just went from a point about breeding habits in relation to big government and followed it up with something about Dukes mayonnaise???

If I'm not mistaken, part of what jed was saying was that in order to get your points across in a way that really makes a difference; you have to be well thought out and fact driven in your presentation. IE proof of theory. Not whimsical, and erratic..relying on mostly smoke and mirrors. Unless you are the government or big business...Then smoke and mirrors will work fine.
506. Siker
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm so bored, lol. I could tolerate anything up to a Category 3 making landfall. Gustav was a 2 even as far as Baton Rouge and we fared pretty well, significant power disruption notwithstanding.

But I just don't see it. The shear will probably not be strong, but it will be northerly, which is not a good situation for a northwestward-moving disturbance.


Are you talking in general for the rest of this season or this Bahablob?
2 weeks and 3 months until thr 10th anniversary of the Texas Christmas Snow Miracle.

I just drank a bottle of vanilla flavored barium sulfate solution and I am not supposed to eat...
Guessing this is the old GA low. Looking pretty healthy tonight. Likely would have been "something" if it were anywhere that made a difference.

Quoting 506. Siker:



Are you talking in general for the rest of this season or this Bahablob?


This Bahablob.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Unfortunately the statewide standard is pretty poor, if there is one(correct me of I'm wrong lol), but parts of the state are good, others are terrible.

I know building design is terrible in the Tampa Bay area, and I assume the building codes are also poor, unless of course that construction companies are illegally cutting corners, which is also possible if its not enforced well.

I do know that building codes are good in SW Florida and SE Florida. I don't know about the Melbourne/East Central Florida area, the Jacksonville area, or NW Florida(Pensacola area).

I do know that while hurricane impacts are pretty rare in the far eastern panhandle here by Tallahassee, building design is very strong here. I've seen frequent use of concrete reinforced with steel, and thick reinforced windows. I assume then building codes are good.

However, back home in the Tampa Bay area for example, where my parents house is (where I live while not at school in Tallahassee), there are new apartments nearby my house there that were under construction over the summer. I saw them build it from the beginning, and I was shocked to notice they used entirely plywood, not a hint of concrete or steel, or anything that looked reinforced. This is bad news, because people will assume a big apartment complex would be strong, but if anything, an all plywood complex that goes several stories high would even be more exposed during a major hurricane.

So, I knew that older building around Tampa Bay sometimes have poor construction, but I didn't know it still happens with new buildings.

Now, that doesn't mean all homes and buildings have poor construction, some homes and businesses are built with strong ind resistant techniques there, but its more of a by choice thing that requires more money, than a standard. As far as I know anyway.

A


These are the primary building materials within the Caribbean region. If building codes are utilized, wind and earthquake related damages can be significantly minimized. When a concrete structure is built without steel, lateral movements will become significant (during stormy weather and strong quakes), and the structure will likely fail. Steel is also a strange metal, it exhibits an anomalous tendency when it's deformed or when stress is added; it get's stronger.

Here in the Caribbean, the biggest problem is getting the citizens to abide by the building codes, and as you may already the Caribbean is prone to natural hazards. Namely, earthquakes, flooding and tropical cyclones.
Caribbean blob would be more impressive if not for the 30 knots of shear.




Hurricane season had its chance and failed. Except I am NOT giving up on Florida until mid-November, based on storms like Opal, Wilma and Kate.

Time to prepare for Winter. The Florida people will disappear from the forum, but the secondary Autumnal peak of severe season, already in progress, and then snow, plenty to talk about.

western Caribbean looking interesting tonight, 91L true LLC center located much further south and west!
Have a goodnight all.
The Bahama blob will be a TC by this weekend in the GOM.
Quoting 513. scott39:

The Bahama blob will be a TC by this weekend in the GOM.


Bold claim, Scott. I hope you are right.
And since it is somehow on topic tonight...Great tune; great band...

516. SLU
Quoting 493. Webberweather53:



He has plenty of reason for that, especially given that aside from Dolly in the Bay of Campeche, every tropical cyclone this season (Arthur, Two, Bertha, & Cristobal) developed about 2-3 days after the passage of a CCKW, I'd be very surprised if nothing transpires out of this...


All in all it's still been a very disappointing season from an entertainment standpoint. Of course it's great not having destructive hurricanes making landfall but we all love tracking storms because of the thrill involved. The Atlantic just hasn't been up to it since last year. It would be great to track a season in the future with favorable atmospheric conditions and to observe how the CCKW interacts with the environment then.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Guessing this is the old GA low. Looking pretty healthy tonight. Likely would have been "something" if it were anywhere that made a difference.

Where exactly is it now? I see a bunch of little blobs in the Atlantic. Id it the one off the VA/MD coast? That's supposed to merge with the poor excuse of a front that went through.

I don't know if you've looked at the "Baha" blob lately, but it's leaving the Bahamas at high speed and seems to want to go to Puerto Rico. I'll never make it to the 2:00 update, but that thing is sure not headed west. :-)

Quoting 515. StormJunkie:

And since it is somehow on topic tonight...Great tune; great band...

img src="">


I love Smashing Pumpkins.

Haven't listened to them in awhile. Perhaps I should reboot them!
Quoting 504. StormJunkie:



You are very hard to follow someti....usually. You just went from a point about breeding habits in relation to big government and followed it up with something about Dukes mayonnaise???

If I'm not mistaken, part of what jed was saying was that in order to get your points across in a way that really makes a difference; you have to be well thought out and fact driven in your presentation. IE proof of theory. Not whimsical, and erratic..relying on mostly smoke and mirrors. Unless you are the government or big business...Then smoke and mirrors will work fine.
I am good at politics. The Kennedy curse is real, and I do not want to contract it. The big lie is that when you go to college everything is cool. They are watching you hard. Politics are another form of business. I hope that explains some things for you without going into detail.
Quoting sar2401:
Hi Nigel, Not Jed, obviously, but Florida has a statewide standard building code. The code has different standards for anything built in high wind or storm surge areas than for structures built outside those zones. Some jurisdictions, Miami-Dade in particular, have even more stringent codes than the state code. If everything is built according to code, Florida should have one of the highest survivability ratings of any of the hurricane prone coast states. The continuing problem in Florida has been poor quality construction that doesn't meet code, with builders able to bribe inspectors to overlook violations. Some of the largest builders in Florida have been involved in this kind of criminal activity. There has been a massive crackdown on this kind of thing over the past six years or so, and the reports I hear are that things are improving. Unfortunately, since most of the code violations are hidden, it's almost impossible for a homebuyer to know if his home is really well built even if it passed code.


Hi sar! Sounds quite familiar, I'm very sure this is taking place in the Caribbean, where building codes are quite stringent (maybe except Haiti). But there is much to be desired, as the building codes are not always followed.
Quoting scott39:
The Bahama blob will be a TC by this weekend in the GOM.
Not unless it does a 180 from its present path it won't.
Quoting 521. sar2401:

Not unless it does a 180 from its present path it won't.


Look closer at water vapor imagery. The upper low south of Bermuda is displacing the convection to the southeast, which is providing the illusion of an equatorial movement.

I'm still not looking for any development, but the ridge to the north is well-defined.
Sar, I'm often wrong...but Bahama blob is headed W, convection is being blown to the SE by the ULL to the NE?

The old GA blob is here...At least I think it is.



Quoting 514. KoritheMan:



Bold claim, Scott. I hope you are right.
I like bold claims, and that's why I like Scott, even when he's wrong. By the way do you have a spider web tattoo on your elbow?(answer for joke)
Quoting 519. Pallis1:

I am good at politics. The Kennedy curse is real, and I do not want to contract it. The big lie is that when you go to college everything is cool. They are watching you hard. Politics are another form of business. I hope that explains some things for you without going into detail.


I'm afraid that there is no amount of detail that will make me get the "bouncing" around subjects...or the "generalizations". No offense intended.

I wouldn't know where to begin addressing some of those points; but as for college...I went when I was 18. I quit when I was 20. I went back when I was 38 and got two degrees. I am far better off for it. Cool? Never was the cool kid, but that's not the end of the world.
Quoting nigel20:


Hi sar! Sounds quite familiar, I'm very sure this is taking place in the Caribbean, where building codes are quite stringent (maybe except Haiti). But there is much to be desired, as the building codes are not always followed.
It's actually one of the reasons I decided to move to Alabama instead of Florida. We have the absolute minimum of building codes, and a prudent assumption is that every house is poorly built. I spent a lot of money on a well qualified engineer to examine my house before I closed on it. It was built in 1895, and I'm lucky enough to be in a small town. The great grandchildren of the man who built my house still live here and are still in the construction business. The house was built for a maiden lady names Miss Lily, who was the Methodist Church organist for 60 years before she passed on. Not only do I have the plans but the guys who are still in construction were able to tell me exactly how the house was built, what materials were used, and anything to watch out for. They said their great grandfather went to the same church and was terrified of Miss Lily. He believed he'd go to hell if he didn't build her a good house. That's worth more to me than a good building code. :-)
Quoting 516. SLU:



All in all it's still been a very disappointing season from an entertainment standpoint. Of course it's great not having destructive hurricanes making landfall but we all love tracking storms because of the thrill involved. The Atlantic just hasn't been up to it since last year. It would be great to track a season in the future with favorable atmospheric conditions and to observe how the CCKW interacts with the environment then.
I would be forced to disagree with you. The increased participation from Ed "crystal ball" Mahmoud has made the current season both fun and educational.
Quoting 527. Skyepony:


Light pollution map. That is why me and Dak are moving. Well he already did.
Due to the tropics in the Atlantic fizzling out storms, I will be going back to my other handle AndreBrooks, it has been fun tracking what we had to track in the Atlantic and especially the Eastern pacific, and I will see you next year on this handle. I will come back to this handle later if conditions warrant. See you guys later from this handle and I will turn back into AndreBrooks. :)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Unfortunately the statewide standard is pretty poor, if there is one(correct me of I'm wrong lol), but parts of the state are good, others are terrible.

I know building design is terrible in the Tampa Bay area, and I assume the building codes are also poor, unless of course that construction companies are illegally cutting corners, which is also possible if its not enforced well.

I do know that building codes are good in SW Florida and SE Florida. I don't know about the Melbourne/East Central Florida area, the Jacksonville area, or NW Florida(Pensacola area).

I do know that while hurricane impacts are pretty rare in the far eastern panhandle here by Tallahassee, building design is very strong here. I've seen frequent use of concrete reinforced with steel, and thick reinforced windows. I assume then building codes are good.

However, back home in the Tampa Bay area for example, where my parents house is (where I live while not at school in Tallahassee), there are new apartments nearby my house there that were under construction over the summer. I saw them build it from the beginning, and I was shocked to notice they used entirely plywood, not a hint of concrete or steel, or anything that looked reinforced. This is bad news, because people will assume a big apartment complex would be strong, but if anything, an all plywood complex that goes several stories high would even be more exposed during a major hurricane.

So, I knew that older building around Tampa Bay sometimes have poor construction, but I didn't know it still happens with new buildings.

Now, that doesn't mean all homes and buildings have poor construction, some homes and businesses are built with strong ind resistant techniques there, but its more of a by choice thing that requires more money, than a standard. As far as I know anyway.





Check out this video, and skip to 5:45 to see the summation.

Quoting 530. HurricaneAndre:

Due to the tropics in the Atlantic fizzling out storms, I will be going back to my other handle AndreBrooks, it has been fun tracking what we had to track in the Atlantic and especially the Eastern pacific, and I will see you next year on this handle. I will come back to this handle later if conditions warrant. See you guys later from this handle and I will turn back into AndreBrooks. :)
AWESOME! I love that you have this whole secret identity thing going on! You're like Batman!!!
Quoting StormJunkie:
Sar, I'm often wrong...but Bahama blob is headed W, convection is being blown to the SE by the ULL to the NE?

The old GA blob is here...At least I think it is.



OK, that's the same one I thought then. It should merge with that remnant front and get carried off.

I've spent some time looking at the Bahamas blob and I know where the low is supposed to be - that naked area to the west of the convection. It appears to me that the convection is under another ULL forming. I don't know which one will be dominant or if the one moving away from the Bahamas will just be another ULL on its own. The motion is very consistent since early this morning, making me thing this is more than convection blow off. But I could very well be wrong also. I wish we could get just one system where everything was apparent just by looking at it. We used to get those.
Quoting 489. Jedkins01:



Unfortunately the statewide standard is pretty poor, if there is one(correct me of I'm wrong lol), but parts of the state are good, others are terrible.

I know building design is terrible in the Tampa Bay area, and I assume the building codes are also poor, unless of course that construction companies are illegally cutting corners, which is also possible if its not enforced well.

I do know that building codes are good in SW Florida and SE Florida. I don't know about the Melbourne/East Central Florida area, the Jacksonville area, or NW Florida(Pensacola area).

I do know that while hurricane impacts are pretty rare in the far eastern panhandle here by Tallahassee, building design is very strong here. I've seen frequent use of concrete reinforced with steel, and thick reinforced windows. I assume then building codes are good.

However, back home in the Tampa Bay area for example, where my parents house is (where I live while not at school in Tallahassee), there are new apartments nearby my house there that were under construction over the summer. I saw them build it from the beginning, and I was shocked to notice they used entirely plywood, not a hint of concrete or steel, or anything that looked reinforced. This is bad news, because people will assume a big apartment complex would be strong, but if anything, an all plywood complex that goes several stories high would even be more exposed during a major hurricane.

So, I knew that older building around Tampa Bay sometimes have poor construction, but I didn't know it still happens with new buildings.

Now, that doesn't mean all homes and buildings have poor construction, some homes and businesses are built with strong ind resistant techniques there, but its more of a by choice thing that requires more money, than a standard. As far as I know anyway.


Big bend and the Panhandle have very good Bldg. codes
Quoting 526. sar2401:

It's actually one of the reasons I decided to move to Alabama instead of Florida. We have the absolute minimum of building codes, and a prudent assumption is that every house is poorly built. I spent a lot of money on a well qualified engineer to examine my house before I closed on it. It was built in 1895, and I'm lucky enough to be in a small town. The great grandchildren of the man who built my house still live here and are still in the construction business. The house was built for a maiden lady names Miss Lily, who was the Methodist Church organist for 60 years before she passed on. Not only do I have the plans but the guys who are still in construction were able to tell me exactly how the house was built, what materials were used, and anything to watch out for. They said their great grandfather went to the same church and was terrified of Miss Lily. He believed he'd go to hell if he didn't build her a good house. That's worth more to me than a good building code. :-)
Sounds like a steal. I hope you try to cook some food and offer it at their peculiar religious holidays to make yourself seem human. Have you put a Ouiji board in each room to test?
Quoting sar2401:
It's actually one of the reasons I decided to move to Alabama instead of Florida. We have the absolute minimum of building codes, and a prudent assumption is that every house is poorly built. I spent a lot of money on a well qualified engineer to examine my house before I closed on it. It was built in 1895, and I'm lucky enough to be in a small town. The great grandchildren of the man who built my house still live here and are still in the construction business. The house was built for a maiden lady names Miss Lily, who was the Methodist Church organist for 60 years before she passed on. Not only do I have the plans but the guys who are still in construction were able to tell me exactly how the house was built, what materials were used, and anything to watch out for. They said their great grandfather went to the same church and was terrified of Miss Lily. He believed he'd go to hell if he didn't build her a good house. That's worth more to me than a good building code. :-)


Great story, thanks for sharing! The Caribbean is an high risk area, as it relates to natural hazards. This was evident by the extensive eastern Caribbean flooding; Christmas of 2013. The islands had very little warning time. So it's essential to follow these building codes
.
Link
Quoting KoritheMan:


Look closer at water vapor imagery. The upper low south of Bermuda is displacing the convection to the southeast, which is providing the illusion of an equatorial movement.

I'm still not looking for any development, but the ridge to the north is well-defined.


Yeah, that discussion Geoff? put up earlier explains what's going on. Here's the latest NHC take that I could find.

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1028 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS THE N WATERS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH OVER THE SE
BAHAMAS WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WED
REACHING THE NW BAHAMAS BY THU. A WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Look closer at water vapor imagery. The upper low south of Bermuda is displacing the convection to the southeast, which is providing the illusion of an equatorial movement.

I'm still not looking for any development, but the ridge to the north is well-defined.
As I wrote to SJ, probably true, although I still think there's another ULL forming there. Regardless, our 10/20 Bahamas blob looks pretty sick. It looked much better before it got the yellow x. It seems like the yellow x is the kiss of death this year.
Quoting 531. DonnieBwkGA:




Exactly Donny. There will be no respite until the States take over the insurance biz. I hope the Governor is true.
Here is my winter weather outlook for 2014-2015.
Link
Quoting Pallis1:
Sounds like a steal. I hope you try to cook some food and offer it at their peculiar religious holidays to make yourself seem human. Have you put a Ouiji board in each room to test?
No, but I have done the golf ball test, so far, each section of the house has the ball rolling in a different direction. The sign of a house that's settled property, according to the locals, since it takes the stress of any one portion of the building. I just have to be careful where I put a pill down before I take it. They should make square pills. You must be a real ball at the church picnic, assuming anyone would ever invite you. "Peculiar" and church don't go well together here.
Quoting sar2401:
As I wrote to SJ, probably true, although I still think there's another ULL forming there. Regardless, our 10/20 Bahamas blob looks pretty sick. It looked much better before it got the yellow x. It seems like the yellow x is the kiss of death this year.


Well, from what I gather you might get your rain out of the Bahamablob SAR. :)
.Some Rafting in the AZ flooding. (this contains some foul language)

Agreed Sar. The yellow X is the kiss of death for sure!
Quoting StormJunkie:
Agreed Sar. The yellow X is the kiss of death for sure!
I second that. :-)
Caribbean blob.
If the GFS is right, we should see upper winds veer over the system very shortly as a small upper ridge forms atop the Bahamas disturbance. The model forecasts this ridging to last for about 36 hours before the flow becomes less favorable and probably not that diffluent.

Based on current trends, it could really go either way in terms of the ridging. My money's on the shear holding out, though.
Quoting Pallis1:
Light pollution map. That is why me and Dak are moving. Well he already did.
It's nice here. I live right in town and I can see the milky way as soon as I walk on the back deck. There's no bookstore, no nursery, and not even one Italian restaurant, but the stars are pretty.
Quoting 524. Pallis1:

I like bold claims, and that's why I like Scott, even when he's wrong. By the way do you have a spider web tattoo on your elbow?(answer for joke)


I hate spiders and I hate needles. What do you think?
The 00Z GFS run keeps 91L way out to sea, not even a Bermuda threat.

162 hrs



186 hrs

Quoting Skyepony:
.Some Rafting in the AZ flooding. (this contains some foul language)

The body recovery later wasn't as much fun.
I think that this winter will be very cold and brutal for most of the nation.
How accurate is the NAM forecast model?
Quoting 554. Sharkicane:

How accurate is the NAM forecast model?


The NAM is a mesoscale model. It's not accurate for tropical systems, which are typically synoptic scale in nature.
Quoting 554. Sharkicane:

How accurate is the NAM forecast model?


For the tropics...It is junk, trash, and rubbish. For winter wx; not terrible.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Well, from what I gather you might get your rain out of the Bahamablob SAR. :)
One can only hope, but I'm afraid it's going to move NW and end up right on the FL/Ga border and cut me off from convection again. It would be nice if it would move across Florida and then up in my direction but I'm afraid the steering currents are too weak to allow that. :-(
Quoting 557. DonnieBwkGA:






Giant crane in the background is pretty cool.
560. 7544
Quoting 543. AtHomeInTX:



Well, from what I gather you might get your rain out of the Bahamablob SAR. :)


i dont see a bahama blob but i do see a car blob maybe this goes nne to the bahamas then heads west is this what the models might be showing ? idk
Quoting StormJunkie:


For the tropics...It is junk, trash, and rubbish. For winter wx; not terrible.
Now c'mon, SJ, you sound like I did last week with the Georgia blob. :-) Despite the prefernces of some here, the NAM is a stinkeroo for the tropics but it's pretty good for North American mesoscale stuff, hence the name NAM. It was the only one that nailed my ice and snow storm last January, almost down to the hour when the changeover started. It also predicted the massive flooding in the Panhandle and south Alabama in April even though I thought it was nuts at the time. I've been pretty impressed with NAM performance this year...just not for tropical storms.
Quoting 560. 7544:



i dont see a bahama blob but i do see a car blob maybe this goes nne to the bahamas then heads west is this what the models might be showing ? idk


No dude. The Caribbean blob is associated with the southern portion of a tropical wave, while the area over the Bahamas is associated with the northern portion of the tropical wave. It's a little unusual to see the southern portion more active in a tropical wave, because the northern side is typically the more cyclonic of the two.

The models move the southern portion of the wave westward into the Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Tehuantepec, potentially giving rise to another storm behind what is likely to be Odile in the Pacific.
That's sort of what I said Sar...lol
Quoting 7544:


i dont see a bahama blob but i do see a car blob maybe this goes nne to the bahamas then heads west is this what the models might be showing ? idk
You mean the one over by the Yucatan now? Completely different system. That one should get to the BOC and then move inland over Mexico. Never makes it any further east than that.
Quoting StormJunkie:
That's sort of what I said Sar...lol
Yeah, but you were just meaner to the NAM than I was. :-)
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:





LOL. I know a couple of guys with chainsaws that I could see that happening.
568. 7544
Quoting 565. sar2401:

You mean the one over by the Yucatan now? Completely different system. That one should get to the BOC and then move inland over Mexico. Never makes it any further east than that.

no sar the blob south of cuba
Odile is likely this morning or, at the very latest, this afternoon. That'll put the east Pacific 11 storms ahead of the Atlantic, with Polo possibly following behind from the southern portion of the tropical wave over the western Caribbean.

Definitely very El Nino ish, the lack of an official designation notwithstanding:

Quoting sar2401:
One can only hope, but I'm afraid it's going to move NW and end up right on the FL/Ga border and cut me off from convection again. It would be nice if it would move across Florida and then up in my direction but I'm afraid the steering currents are too weak to allow that. :-(


Yeah was just going by some models/ensembles I'd seen. And my local guy said whatever it will be would probably go into the gulf but that the front would keep it to our east.
Are the NOAA sites down or is it just me? SPC/WPC/NHC/CPC all seem to be down.

Quoting 549. sar2401:

It's nice here. I live right in town and I can see the milky way as soon as I walk on the back deck. There's no bookstore, no nursery, and not even one Italian restaurant, but the stars are pretty.
That's how it was in Vermont, where spouse's parents used to live. Could see the milky way from the side porch, even with all the yard lights on. And was truly spectacular from the field across the road. But towards the end, even there, the light pollution was creeping in -- nighttime glow from all the nearby "big cities". ;)

How are your horizons? That was the biggest issue in VT, astronomically speaking --  farmhouse was located a few miles outside of a small town on a country road in a river valley. Couldn't see anything below 15-20 degrees in most directions due to the hills N and S, and the trees E and W.
Quoting 571. SouthCentralTx:

Are the NOAA sites down or is it just me? SPC/WPC/NHC/CPC all seem to be down.


It's just you, bro.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No dude. The Caribbean blob is associated with the southern portion of a tropical wave, while the area over the Bahamas is associated with the northern portion of the tropical wave. It's a little unusual to see the southern portion more active in a tropical wave, because the northern side is typically the more cyclonic of the two.

The models move the southern portion of the wave westward into the Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Tehuantepec, potentially giving rise to another storm behind what is likely to be Odile in the Pacific.
Pretty amazing how consistent that draw from the BOC over Mexico and right out into the Pacific that flow has been this year. Even though I read of people hoping for the BOC storm to get going and roar across the Gulf, I can't see anything escaping from that death trap this year. I know that would normally be a good chance for you to get in a chace. Well, at least the bright side is your chase fund should be pretty flush next year at this rate. :-)
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's just you, bro.


Ok thanks. I will be using that site in the future, will come in handy. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's just you, bro.
Or he's got RoadRunner/Time-Warner cable and is using their servers. I had nothing but grief with them until I switched to a Google public server and haven't had a problem since.
Quoting 7544:


i dont see a bahama blob but i do see a car blob maybe this goes nne to the bahamas then heads west is this what the models might be showing ? idk


Granted it looked more blobbish earlier. I'm not sure what that's from in the Caribbean. ULL? TW?


SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED 40 NM W OF WESTERN CUBA. REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. STRONGER CONVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS N OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
80W-83W. THIS CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE
GENERATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CUBA WITH
CENTER NEAR 21N78W. ASIDE FROM THAT...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA IS MOVING SW AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
MAINLY S OF 23N...BETWEEN 73W-83W. IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE
TROPICAL WAVE W OF CUBA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ENHANCED CONVECTION OFF THE COASTS
OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ON THE CONTRARY...EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N85W TO 10N86W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
12N-23N BETWEEN 84W-87W.
Quoting 574. sar2401:

Pretty amazing how consistent that draw from the BOC over Mexico and right out into the Pacific that flow has been this year. Even though I read of people hoping for the BOC storm to get going and roar across the Gulf, I can't see anything escaping from that death trap this year. I know that would normally be a good chance for you to get in a chace. Well, at least the bright side is your chase fund should be pretty flush next year at this rate. :-)


It takes one hell of a cold front to pull a system northward from the BoC to the United States Gulf Coast. It's more likely to happen from late September through October.
Quoting 575. SouthCentralTx:



Ok thanks. I will be using that site in the future, will come in handy. :)


you should man <3
Quoting 580. Pallis1:

Yes Sir, that joke has gotten me into trouble more than once, and I would not recommend anyone else telling it.
If anyone would get in trouble for telling an inappropriate joke, it would be me. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Odile is likely this morning or, at the very latest, this afternoon. That'll put the east Pacific 11 storms ahead of the Atlantic, with Polo possibly following behind from the southern portion of the tropical wave over the western Caribbean.

Definitely very El Nino ish, the lack of an official designation notwithstanding:



I, personally, am extremely disappointed we don't get to see Marco and Polo exist in the ATL and EPAC at the same time this year.
Quoting EstherD:

That's how it was in Vermont, where spouse's parents used to live. Could see the milky way from the side porch, even with all the yard lights on. And was truly spectacular from the field across the road. But towards the end, even there, the light pollution was creeping in -- nighttime glow from all the nearby "big cities". ;)

How are your horizons? That was the biggest issue in VT, astronomically speaking -- farmhouse was located a few miles outside of a small town on a country road in a river valley. Couldn't see anything below 15-20 degrees in most directions due to the hills N and S, and the trees E and W.
Hi Esther. No hills to speak of here so it's just tree lines. In the yard, it's not good because I have many 70-100 foot trees. We have a huge lake a mile away and it's probably 5 degrees on the far horizon, 10 degrees on close. If I was on a boat in the middle of the lake, I could look about 15 miles N/S and 12 mile E/W. Not as good as the ocean but close. Our light glow lasts about a mile or so after you leave the "suburbs".

It's interesting to feel a heat island in action though. My street is about two city blocks from downtown. The downtown is two main streets and three cross streets. We have two traffic lights. Nevertheless, when I take Radar Dog for his walk (which is usually after 9:00, when it drops below 80), I can really feel the difference from the brick buildings radiating heat compared to the lawns and trees just two blocks away. I have the feeling that the heat island effect in really large cities is more than we give it credit for.
Quoting 581. KoritheMan:

If anyone would get in trouble for telling an inappropriate joke, it would be me. :)



Going back to 550, there's a tattoo image for Kori on the darwin award grapics search....but I don't dare post it.
Definitely getting very close. Interestingly, there's a bit of discrepancy between an AMSU microwave pass and an ASCAT pass, both of which captured the developing circulation at around 0350Z. The former suggests the center is under the convection, while the scatterometer pass suggests it remains to the southeast of the convection. I would be more inclined to believe the AMSU pass, albeit with perhaps a healthy blend of both.



Quoting 582. CybrTeddy:



I, personally, am extremely disappointed we don't get to see Marco and Polo exist in the ATL and EPAC at the same time this year.


Same. I'm still going to find a way to make a Marco Polo joke when Polo comes around, though. Watch me.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It takes one hell of a cold front to pull a system northward from the BoC to the United States Gulf Coast. It's more likely to happen from late September through October.
I had hopes for the one coming down this weekend but it looks like a typical first round washout now.
Quoting 7544:
OK, that one's headed SW to Central America and then to the Pacific too.
Quoting 587. sar2401:

I had hopes for the one coming down this weekend but it looks like a typical first round washout now.


What did I say about the models underestimating persistent deep-layer continental ridge/trough patterns and trying to break them down too quickly? And that September would have more ridging than we've seen in recent years out east?

"I saw it first". :)
Quoting 585. KoritheMan:

Definitely getting very close. Interestingly, there's a bit of discrepancy between an AMSU microwave pass and an ASCAT pass, both of which captured the developing circulation at around 0350Z. The former suggests the center is under the convection, while the scatterometer pass suggests it remains to the southeast of the convection. I would be more inclined to believe the AMSU pass, albeit with perhaps a healthy blend of both.






They look like they are in the same position to me. But what do I know.
Quoting 590. Drakoen:



They look like they are in the same position to me. But what do I know.


A lot more than most people here do, Drak. No need to be modest. :)

Quoting 583. sar2401:

Hi Esther. No hills to speak of here so it's just tree lines. In the yard, it's not good because I have many 70-100 foot trees. We have a huge lake a mile away and it's probably 5 degrees on the far horizon, 10 degrees on close. If I was on a boat in the middle of the lake, I could look about 15 miles N/S and 12 mile E/W. Not as good as the ocean but close. Our light glow lasts about a mile or so after you leave the "suburbs".

It's interesting to feel a heat island in action though. My street is about two city blocks from downtown. The downtown is two main streets and three cross streets. We have two traffic lights. Nevertheless, when I take Radar Dog for his walk (which is usually after 9:00, when it drops below 80), I can really feel the difference from the brick buildings radiating heat compared to the lawns and trees just two blocks away. I have the feeling that the heat island effect in really large cities is more than we give it credit for.


Yes, that heat island effect is real. I can detect it, even here in Cambridge. Several degrees temperature difference between where we live on a wide, asphalt-paved main street lined with 4-5 story brick multi-unit buildings and very few remaining large trees, compared with the side streets, which are mostly wood-frame double- and triple-deckers, with lots of big, old trees.

Could be worse. We're at the top of what passes for a "hill" in these parts -- 25 feet ASL instead of the more typical 5-10 feet ASL in the flatlander's part of Cambridge. Based on a comparison among a few nearby WU personal stations, there's often as much as a ten degree difference, because we're high enough to catch a bit of the sea breeze most days when it blows.
Quoting 581. KoritheMan:

If anyone would get in trouble for telling an inappropriate joke, it would be me. :)

I will try to cover that spread. Scott might be right. Something's brewing. I just can't get past these 10 hr. days. It is killing me.
Yay

Quoting 594. DonnieBwkGA:

Yay




dude, stop. I thought that was the Bahamas AOI for a minute there. Had my hopes up.
Quoting 549. sar2401:

It's nice here. I live right in town and I can see the milky way as soon as I walk on the back deck. There's no bookstore, no nursery, and not even one Italian restaurant, but the stars are pretty.
For now. They have plans for there too. Look at Dothan for an example.
Just for Kori

Quoting 597. DonnieBwkGA:

Just for Kori



Yay, lots of rain for me down here in southern Texas! :)
Looks like our Bahamas AOI is a little north of the NHC X.

Good rains for us in Southern Texas!! Well take it! :)
94E is now TD 15E has formed in the EPac! Another one that will become a Hurricane!!
FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
411 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER LOUISIANA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS THE TROUGH
OVER NORTH FLORIDA PUSHES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...AND DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE NHC IS MONITORING A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS THAT WAS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAD A LOW CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRY AND DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR THURSDAY AS THE TUTT WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST AND
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BRIEFLY MOVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS MORNING...AND THEN SHIFT
TO THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN RELATION TO SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE TROUGH A LITTLE FASTER
TO THE WEST AND HAS IT PLACED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS MOVE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...BOTH MODELS HAVE
THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE IT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...WET CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

Interesting path for TD 15E
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E
2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 10
Location: 14.4°N 102.5°W
Moving: NNW at 1 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

maybe a hurricane down the road and make landfall to
Ugh, in the bullseye. Weekend washout and we're having a party Saturday.

No tropical action, flat surf, long periods of no precip followed by a month's worth of rain in 2 days. 2014 go away.

Quoting 600. RGVtropicalWx13:


Good rains for us in Southern Texas!! Well take it! :)
Looks like this one is going to be a troublemaker...


Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E


we have a new invest 96E

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96E/96E_ floater.html


here is invest 95E TO
East Pacific 15E 95E 96E East Pacific may three storms on the way
ex 90 where are you?
Quoting 607. hurricanes2018:



Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E
pouring again e cen fl.--------
dont forget the 2014 handicap all %s for development are at least 10% lower than they would in other yrs
Quoting 613. islander101010:

pouring again e cen fl.--------

Just finished here... Incoming.



wow!! here we go again!! maybe up to three tropical storms


621. beell
The Bahama blob/wave in the eastern gulf at its maximum amplitude (at 850 mb) in the 00Z GFS.


08/10 00Z GFS 850 mb heights, winds, temps-valid Friday, 8PM EDT

30 knots of broadly cyclonic flow atop the blob-around the base of the persistent ULL in the western Atlantic.


Quoting 613. islander101010:

pouring again e cen fl.--------
A blob blob is heading your way.


WOW!!! look at invest 96E
Quoting 611. islander101010:

ex 90 where are you?
Returned to Africa.
Apparently this isn't a tropical depression.

Quoting 620. prcane4you:

No blob for today? Yesterday's blob was a comedy.


Except for the 30 knots of shear and lack of low level convergence, the Caribbean blob Northeast of Nicaragua doesn't look half bad.
You've got to love the CMC. It always gives us something to post.
It brings the Bahamas low around Florida and blows it up into the N.E. GOM.

628. beell
Quoting 626. EdMahmoud:



Except for the 30 knots of shear and lack of low level convergence, the Caribbean blob Northeast of Nicaragua doesn't look half bad.


Probably a touch of subsidence/dry air associated with that shear as well (upstream side of the ULL).

NM. Wrong blob!
P33L isn't dead.
Here's the info from the Navy Site based on the OOZ model runs.


SYNOPSIS 2014091000

P33L (NHC: 10% 2-day / 20% 5-day)
25N, 73W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Intensifies a little on Day 1, weakens on Days 2-3, but then reintensifies to the same OW value of about 2x10-9 s-2 on Days 4-5, as the tracked 700-hPa circulation grows and moves to the middle of the Gulf of Mexico.

GFS: Tracked all 120 hours, but is a little faster, smaller, and weaker than in ECMWF.

UKMET: Steadily intensifies to 7x10-9 s-2 on a slightly slower track than the other models.
Peak of hurricane season and there is nothing out there. Unreal!

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Peak of hurricane season and there is nothing out there. Unreal!


First time since 1992.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

1. An area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is showing signs
of organization. This low could become a tropical depression
during the next day or two before upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This system is expected to move slowly northward during
the next couple of days and then turn eastward after that.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly
northward and then northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
635. srada
I'm tired of this rain in NC. My 10 day weather forecast from TWC consists of the next two days of "Partly Cloudy" and then rain again. Thats a shame I can only look forward to "Partly Cloudy" days now..



Quoting 631. TropicalAnalystwx13:


First time since 1992.


You know I felt that going into this hurricane season that no matter if there is an El-Nino or not that this years hurricane season was doomed and that is why I rolled out my 5 to 7 named systems back in May. I really felt that an active Pacific was going to cause lots of dry sinking air across our basin and that is exactly what has happened.

The strongest of the MJO has been on the Pacific all summer however we may see more action across the Atlantic the last 2 weeks of September before the season shuts down for good.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Peak of hurricane season and there is nothing out there. Unreal!



I really believed things would pick up this week (my prediction last week).
That prediction isn't looking too good at the moment.
Also, I was expecting to see at least 3-4 more named systems this year. That's also not looking so good at the moment.
Quoting 635. srada:

I'm tired of this rain, My 10 day weather forecast from TWC consists of the next two days of "Partly Cloudy" and then rain again. Thats a shame I can only look forward to "Partly Cloudy" days now..






Everyday for the past week we have been getting dumped on here in Seminole County north of Orlando. Reports of 2.5" to 3.5" just yesterday alone in Central Seminole County. Monthly totals are near or above what is expect for September already around here but much lower totals south of Orlando at the airport of coarse. Never fails that the heaviest rains miss the actual reporting site.
Quoting 625. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Apparently this isn't a tropical depression.


Why a blob without any circulation deserves so many attention? Any chance to develop?
Here in my area (S.W. Florida) precipitation drops off significantly in October. So the daily afternoon T storms will be over for the year in just a few weeks.

You can see how the rainy season really slows down/ends in Oct. for us.

Average monthly precipitation totals for Fort Myers.

August
10.14 inches

September
8.31 inches

October
2.88 inches
Oh oh.you know who is here .Students be prepare for today's lessons.
Quoting 641. Sfloridacat5:

Here in my area (S.W. Florida) precipitation drops off significantly in October. So the daily afternoon T storms will be over for the year in just a few weeks.

You can see how the rainy season really slows down/ends in Oct. for us.

Average monthly precipitation totals for Fort Myers.

August
10.14 inches

September
8.31 inches

October
2.88 inches



Expect triple those totals this year atleast. This no hype this will likely be reality and you can kinda of get a glimpse of what I am talking about here. It appears a deep cut off trough is going to set up across the Gulf next week while pumping some excessive rains across All of the FL Penisula. Pattern looks wet for the next 4 to 5 weeks.

Here is the GFS below and believe it or not the Euro is similar.

Pattern in place across the SE US suggest a late end to the rainy season this year across FL. Last year the rainy season ended at the end of September here in Orlando. That doesn't appear to be the case this year as the pattern suggest lots of rain for FL for a long while. May dry out some the next few days then expect a very wet pattern come Sunday or next Monday.

Here is the trough moving into the Gulf at day 8


Here is this same trough stuck in the Central Gulf at day 10


The eventual result of this pattern could be this.
Quoting 639. StormTrackerScott:



Everyday for the past week we have been getting dumped on here in Seminole County north of Orlando. Reports of 2.5" to 3.5" just yesterday alone in Central Seminole County. Monthly totals are near or above what is expect for September already around here but much lower totals south of Orlando at the airport of coarse. Never fails that the heaviest rains miss the actual reporting site.
Good morning StormTrackerSexy!!! Hope it's a drier day for you!
NWS HGX sounds somewhat optimistic that the Canadian front stalling nearby Houston and reasonably (~2 inch) PW Gulf air running over the top of the shallow cold air may allow for useful rains Friday-Sunday.

Betcha not.

Although Euro brings some of the corpse of BahamaBlob into the front, and has 1 week rainfalls over 2 inches. But I have a feeling, no.

0Z GFS says little rain, but notice mid 80sF highs in the cold Canadian air Saturday.

Hear you. I'm directly under the "3" in "3.6" May not even dry out from the torrential rains of last weekend before the next deluge visits. I'm concerned about such saturated grounds in the entire area. Reminiscent of pre-Floyd. All it would take for some serious flooding is a TS; and it doesn't have to be a potent one.

Quoting 635. srada:

I'm tired of this rain in NC. My 10 day weather forecast from TWC consists of the next two days of "Partly Cloudy" and then rain again. Thats a shame I can only look forward to "Partly Cloudy" days now..




We have to watch this pattern for flooding issues across FL.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Expect triple those totals this year atleast. This no hype this will likely be reality and you can kinda of get a glimpse of what I am talking about here. It appears a deep cut off trough is going to set up across the Gulf next week while pumping some excessive rains across All of the FL Penisula. Pattern looks wet for the next 4 to 5 weeks.

Here is the GFS below and believe it or not the Euro is similar.



That will be good for most people.

Nov - Jan. it usually pretty much stops raining around here. So some extra rain will help out.

It will also help with the fire season. Look how dry we normally are during the winter months.

November
1.96 inches

December
1.71

January
1.94 inches

A lot of people don't realize how dry it normally gets in South Florida during the winter. Lots of sun and low humidity. Not what most people think of about Florida.
Hey guys today is overcast wet with an occasional gust



Also interesting little rotation on radar
A good analog for this year's October across FL could be 1999. JMO
Quoting 649. StormTrackerScott:

We have to watch this pattern for flooding issues across FL.


i dont wish for damaging floods but since the rainy season hasnt been so rainy over here maybe your rain prediction will come true
Quoting 644. StormTrackerScott:

Pattern in place across the SE US suggest a late end to the rainy season this year across FL. Last year the rainy season ended at the end of September here in Orlando. That doesn't appear to be the case this year as the pattern suggest lots of rain for FL for a long while. May dry out some the next few days then expect a very wet pattern come Sunday or next Monday.

Here is the trough moving into the Gulf at day 8



70knt+ Jet Streak doesn't look too friendly :(
Sure, I am looking forward to snow and everything, but Florida season isn't over, and really, I like the pattern late month for storms from the Caribbean into Florida. All we need now are Caribbean storms. Nothing against Florida, I lived in the 32813 for a year.




Somewhat more favorable than the first half of September...

Hello good morning!!, can somebody please tell me exactly where is the low level located in the Bahamas?, it's near the convention,or further South East?, it looks confusing due to the lack of moisture,but most of the Models bring something with a lot of rain to SOuth Florida Friday or Saturday.
I'm just hoping we don't get a powerful cold front that blasts all the way through the western Caribbean that ends the hurricane season early.
I can't remember what season it was (last year or not), but one strong front completely ended the hurricane season for the entire U.S. including Florida.

It dried out the western Caribbean and the moisture never returned.
Hear ya. Broken record this year. I think we have a chance for some kind of homegrown fluke storm this fall, like a hybrid or enormous subtropical system. As far as tracking a "classic" tropical storm this season, we may have peaked with Arthur. It's still too early to throw in the towel, but the pattern is struggling invest after struggling invest.

Stinkiest part of all this is that there are no surfable waves anywhere in the Atlantic (except Europe maybe). As Sar has repeatedly pointed out there are just no pressure gradients of any significance. I expect the boys OBX and north may see some monster L's (Nor'easters) Oct and Nov that provide insanely great swell, but they will do little for me here. May have to take the 4/3, gloves and booties and make the trek up to NJ to visit my old stomping grounds. Ugh, cold water poundings.

Quoting 637. Sfloridacat5:



I really believed things would pick up this week (my prediction last week).
That prediction isn't looking too good at the moment.
Also, I was expecting to see at least 3-4 more named systems this year. That's also not looking so good at the moment.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 091400
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 09 SEPTEMBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-101

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3 REMARKS: NASA 872 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A RESEARCH FLIGHT
TO INVESTIGATE A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC.
TAKEOFF TIME FROM KWAL 10/2200Z. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 62,000
FT. 60 SONDES TOTAL- LAWNMOWER PATTERN IN REGION BOUNDED BY:
A. 10.5N 41.5W
B. 10.5N 33.5W
C. 17.5N 41.5W
D. 17.5N 33.5W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
As everyone can see all our eyes are in the Florida's weather blog.
Quoting 658. Sfloridacat5:

I'm just hoping we don't get a powerful cold front that blasts all the way through the western Caribbean that ends the hurricane season early.
I can't remember what season it was (last year or not), but one strong front completely ended the hurricane season for the entire U.S. including Florida.

It dried out the western Caribbean and the moisture never returned.


2010 & 2013. September 30th of last year I got down to 66 for a low.
Quoting 655. Drakoen:



70knt+ Jet Streak doesn't look too friendly :(


What I am eluding too is the tropical tap of moisture from the NW Caribbean.
Quoting 661. prcane4you:

As everyone can see all our eyes are in the Florida's weather blog.


Well post weather from your hood. I don't live in PR so I don't know whats going on there.

Here is a video to boot for you.
Link
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND AND GULF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS.

WATERSPOUTS: A FEW WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH
THE INTERIOR PENINSULA HAVING THE GREATEST COVERAGE. A FEW STORMS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS, AS WELL AS TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

MINOR STREET FLOODING OR STANDING WATER OVER THE TYPICAL BEACH
AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE VULNERABLE AREAS OF MIAMI BEACH ALONG
THE BAY SIDE...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AROUND THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDES WILL BE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING AND MID-
EVENING HOURS OVER THE UPCOMING COUPLE OF DAYS.

Quoting 648. SFLWeatherman:



Link


I see there's a low just east of the Bahamas. GFS ensembles are picking up on this feature but keep it weak.
Quoting 659. HaoleboySurfEC:

Hear ya. Broken record this year. I think we have a chance for some kind of homegrown fluke storm this fall, like a hybrid or enormous subtropical system. As far as tracking a "classic" tropical storm this season, we may have peaked with Arthur. It's still too early to throw in the towel, but the pattern is struggling invest after struggling invest.

Stinkiest part of all this is that there are no surfable waves anywhere in the Atlantic (except Europe maybe). As Sar has repeatedly pointed out there are just no pressure gradients of any significance. I expect the boys OBX and north may see some monster L's (Nor'easters) Oct and Nov that provide insanely great swell, but they will do little for me here. May have to take the 4/3, gloves and booties and make the trek up to NJ to visit my old stomping grounds. Ugh, cold water poundings.



Head south...to Nicaragua or Costa Rica.We head down there each year for a 10 day surf holiday. Have never been disappointed. The only problem is when it gets to triple over-head, this long boarder / SUP rider is on the beach watching ... with cold drinks
You can see it good on here
Link
Quoting 666. StormTrackerScott:



I see there's a low just east of the Bahamas. GFS ensembles are picking up on this feature but keep it weak.
Quoting 664. StormTrackerScott:



Well post weather from your hood. I don't live in PR so I don't know whats going on there.

Here is a video to boot for you.
Link> Just a FYI, I'm giving you "street cred" for using the term "your hood"

we now have or 15 or 16 name storm of the season

EP, 15, 2014091012, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1028W, 35, 1005, TS
7 days away and could change,and its only one model..we'll see what happens.................
This is insane. We now have Odile. 95E is up to 60/60, so if it becomes a tropical cyclone today, we could have Polo. Then the GFS and ECMWF indicate another possible cyclone trailing Odile... AND 96E.

Either way, the Pacific remains crazy active, and I still think we're going to exhaust the regular alphabet this year.

In ten days the GFS has a deepening Low at the tip of the Yucatan Penisula with another tropical low pressure coming from east to west north of Puerto Rico. A trough of low pressure is to the north of this feature and this recurves it. What I don't get is why the Low in the Gulf is not affected by this in this model ensemble. There seems to be an elongated trough that should bring it into SW florida. I will attempt to post link. Also someone help me how do u post pictures? Satellite? Computer model data? etc LINK is GFS 252hour
Quoting 674. WeatherConvoy:


In ten days the GFS has a deepening Low at the tip of the Yucatan Penisula with another tropical low pressure coming from east to west north of Puerto Rico. A trough of low pressure is to the north of this feature and this recurves it. What I don't get is why the Low in the Gulf is not affected by this in this model ensemble. There seems to be an elongated trough that should bring it into SW florida. I will attempt to post link. Also someone help me how do u post pictures? Satellite? Computer model data? etc LINK is GFS 252hour


For images, do img src= link. Make sure to put a left and right arrow before the img and after the URL, respectively.

For links, click the paperclip icon (assuming you're not using WU classic; I don't remember how to do it there :P) and insert the desired link there.

For satellite loops, copy/paste the gif URL and follow the same procedure for posting images. Not all satellite loops are gifs, however, so you'll have to Google around for a random loop to gif converter for that. Otherwise they won't animate.
models are crap this yr there is no WOLF here
CMC has it cross so fla,into the gulf, up to the big bend comes ashore at 999MB,crosses florida exiting somewhere around Jacksonville and up the east coast....my guess is..just a big rainmaker with some gusty winds...we'll see what happens way too many days to be accurate...just something to watch and wait and see if indeed it even does develop huh...
Quoting LargoFl:
7 days away and could change,and its only one model..we'll see what happens.................




The CMC shows the same thing. They must be based on the same model.
Quoting 658. Sfloridacat5:

I'm just hoping we don't get a powerful cold front that blasts all the way through the western Caribbean that ends the hurricane season early.
I can't remember what season it was (last year or not), but one strong front completely ended the hurricane season for the entire U.S. including Florida.

It dried out the western Caribbean and the moisture never returned.
Quoting LargoFl:
CMC has it cross so fla,into the gulf, up to the big bend comes ashore at 999MB,crosses florida exiting somewhere around Jacksonville and up the east coast....my guess is..just a big rainmaker with some gusty winds...we'll see what happens way too many days to be accurate...just something to watch and wait and see if indeed it even does develop huh...
Since it's the CMC and brings rain to my house, which it has done weekly for almost two years, and has never been right yet, I'd buy a lottery ticket instead. :-)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:




The CMC shows the same thing. They must be based on the same model.
BTW, the GEM and CMC are the same exact thing....
Quoting 678. Sfloridacat5:





The CMC shows the same thing. They must be based on the same model.
I sure hope it doesnt verify,but looking more and more likely as each day goes by.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Hear ya. Broken record this year. I think we have a chance for some kind of homegrown fluke storm this fall, like a hybrid or enormous subtropical system. As far as tracking a "classic" tropical storm this season, we may have peaked with Arthur. It's still too early to throw in the towel, but the pattern is struggling invest after struggling invest.

Stinkiest part of all this is that there are no surfable waves anywhere in the Atlantic (except Europe maybe). As Sar has repeatedly pointed out there are just no pressure gradients of any significance. I expect the boys OBX and north may see some monster L's (Nor'easters) Oct and Nov that provide insanely great swell, but they will do little for me here. May have to take the 4/3, gloves and booties and make the trek up to NJ to visit my old stomping grounds. Ugh, cold water poundings.



I always hate breaking out the wetsuit because it makes paddling a lot more work. I guess it will help keep you in shape?

The coldest I've ever surfed was in 43 degree water. It was on an extremely cold day in Corpus Christi with air temps in the 30s with rain mixed with sleet coming down.

Most of us wore 3/2 wetsuits that weren't made for conditions that cold. I actually turned blue and it took me all day to warm back up after a 2-3 hour session.
But the waves were really good that day so we just couldn't stay out of the water.
15E will be a storm to watch closely. I think it passes far enough west of Baja to be more of a nuisance than a big impact storm, but if it goes a little further east we could be talking about a landfalling hurricane. RI is a distinct possibility in a day or two, so it could end up stronger than model consensus and the NHC forecast. SHIPS suggests a Cat 3.



Booo Atlantic Ocean! Not able to give us a large and powefull hurricane over the caribbean ...
We are going to prosecute saharian Desert ..
Added a Peak of Season entry to my blog..

Quoting 673. KoritheMan:

This is insane. We now have Odile. 95E is up to 60/60, so if it becomes a tropical cyclone today, we could have Polo. Then the GFS and ECMWF indicate another possible cyclone trailing Odile... AND 96E.

Either way, the Pacific remains crazy active, and I still think we're going to exhaust the regular alphabet this year.

Me too.. Had 26-10-6 for EPAC. We are at I think 15-9-6...Wish I'd gone more intense.
Nice! Gut check 3XOH. Maybe when the boy is older. I have to sneak around Mr. Bossman and Mrs. Bossman. Enjoy!

My gun getting old, yellow and dusty. Lots of LB these days, but I also have an old man fish.

And we have a couple of Costco foam boards that we go "foamikazee" on big beach break.


Quoting 668. superpete:


Head south...to Nicaragua or Costa Rica.We head down there each year for a 10 day surf holiday. Have never been disappointed. The only problem is when it gets to triple over-head, this long boarder / SUP rider is on the beach watching ... with cold drinks
Quoting 672. LargoFl:

7 days away and could change,and its only one model..we'll see what happens.................


Long range GFS shows a system in the GOM and off the coast of FL/GA as well. Wonder if 91/L and the convection in the GOM now can help moisten the atmosphere for these possible set-ups next week. It's peak week now.

Quoting 650. jdukes:





I think it'll be stronger than Cat-1 imo.

Quoting 647. HaoleboySurfEC:

Hear you. I'm directly under the "3" in "3.6" May not even dry out from the torrential rains of last weekend before the next deluge visits. I'm concerned about such saturated grounds in the entire area. Reminiscent of pre-Floyd. All it would take for some serious flooding is a TS; and it doesn't have to be a potent one.




Ever since Arthur came through it's rained so often. Bertha -> Fran, Dennis -> Floyd, Arthur -> blank wouldn't be the first time (although Fran was mainly a wind event).
Looking across the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the subtropical Atlantic, there's...not much to see. Pressures are flat across the entire area again. The front that came down two days ago is now stationary across the deep South and is predicted to remain so for the next seven days. The ULL in the Bahamas is still a ULL with no sign of it becoming surface based. There is virtually no convection with it now. The only area with significant convection is the blob out in the central Caribbean. It has been pulsing on and off for three days in the same location with a very slow drift west...or maybe north. It's hard to tell today. If you like the weather now, you'll like it in five days, since not much is going to change.

15E reminds me a lot of Norbert, and it'll be heading up in a similar environment that Norbert made its run at Category 3. Best guess is a 95-110 knot peak.
The CMC may not be all that crazy..the UKMET is showing the same thing on its last frame..both at a 144 hours..



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Anything going on with the low in the Bahamas???,I don't see a lot of convention?,our local Met's and the some of the Models are hinting a low over South Florida,with a lot of rain for Friday and Saturday,unless convention over the Bahamas pick-up later today and tomorrow?>
You were suffering in a 3/2, especially if not zipless. You can stay very toasty for hours in the right suit. Used to surf Maine 12 months out of year. It gets to the point, however, where the reward does not exceed the work involved.

lol, the suits when I was a kid in the 70's and 80's were pretty bad. I remember coming out of the water and I couldn't feel anything. I couldn't turn the key to open my car door. I had to use my teeth.

I was always pretty good in cold water until I got older and I now get horrible calf Charlie horses after about 1 1/2 hours in cold water.

Growing up in NJ I could always keep up with my Hawaiian buds when it came to paddling. Wearing the rubber will definitely build up the shoulders. Robin Ventura, the baseball player, credited a spike in home runs one season when he started surfing in the off season.


Quoting 687. Sfloridacat5:



I always hate breaking out the wetsuit because it makes paddling a lot more work. I guess it will help keep you in shape?

The coldest I've ever surfed was in 43 degree water. It was on an extremely cold day in Corpus Christi with air temps in the 30s with rain mixed with sleet coming down.

Most of us wore 3/2 wetsuits that weren't made for conditions that cold. I actually turned blue and it took me all day to warm back up after a 2-3 hour session.
But the waves were really good that day so we just couldn't stay out of the water.