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Moisture at Last for California; Severe Storms, Heavy Rain for TX/LA/AR/MS

By: Bob Henson 6:57 PM GMT on March 07, 2016

Rain lovers across central and northern California--and snow lovers across the Sierra Nevada--were equally pleased at the storminess that enveloped the region over the last several days. Multiday rainfall totals of 1” to 4” were widespread across the Bay Area, with larger amounts toward the north and at higher elevations. Several points along the Coast Range racked up 10” to 12” totals. Snowfall was also generous across the Sierra Nevada mountains to the east (see below). All told, the weekend storms gave a big boost to a region that had gotten only scant precipitation during February--usually one of the wettest months of the year, and often a prodigiously stormy month during strong El Niño events, such as the one now in place. The precipitation wasn’t as abundant toward Southern California, but even this drought-scarred area got an encouraging dose of precipitation during the weekend and into Monday morning.


Figure 1. Webcam photo of snow atop Frazier Mountain in far northern Ventura County, CA, on Monday morning, March 7, 2016. Image credit: NWS/Los Angeles.


Figure 2. WunderMap interactive radar shows a line of intense thunderstorms moves across the San Diego/Tijuana area at around 9:15 am PST on Monday, March 7, 2016.


Thunderstorms raged off the southern California coast on Sunday night, producing ample lightning and paving the way for a dark and stormy Monday morning over coastal Southern California. Several potent lines of thunderstorms moved across the region’s coastal metropolitan areas, bringing lightning, hail, and brief heavy rain. Severe thunderstorm warnings were in effect for most of San Diego County as one line approached.

Sierra snowpack clawing its way back toward average
The crucial Sierra Nevada snowpack, which stores about a third of the water used by Californians, has improved over the last few days. As of Sunday, March 6, the Sierra Nevada had pushed back above its long-term average values for accumulated precipitation in the water year to date, starting July 1 (see Figure 3). A good portion of that moisture has run off or melted off, helping to replenish downstream reservoirs and aquifers. The actual amount of water held in the snowpack--the snow water equivalent--is between about 75% and 85% of average for the wet season to date, according to daily analysis from the California Department of Water Resources. With several storms still in the pipeline over the next few days, that percentage is likely to climb.


Figure 3. Precipitation totals for the three regions of the Sierra Nevada from July 1 through March 6 (green bars), compared to the last four years (tan, grey, yellow, and red bars) and to average long-term values for the same period. Image credit: Jan Null, Golden Gate Weather Services.

L.A. still lacking; Seattle still soaked
Even after this weekend’s storms, Southern California remains on the low side when it comes to 2015-16 winter precipitation. As of midnight Sunday night, Los Angeles had racked up 0.64” for the month, with another half inch or so on Monday morning. Yet the total through Sunday night of 5.64” remained far below the average wet-season total to date (October 1 – March 6) of 11.61”. As of midnight Sunday, San Diego had garnered just 0.33” of rain this month. That left its total since October 1 (3.91”) almost 7” below the average rainfall received by this point in the year. Additional rain on Monday will help, but it appears that the bounty of heavy rain over the next week-plus will be aimed primarily north of the LA-San Diego area, with the possible exception of another weekend storm around Friday/Saturday. On the plus side, there remains a chance of additional rain heading toward the region over at least the following week or so, as more impulses travel along the subtropical Pacific jet stream.

Most folks in Seattle would probably be happy to see the El Niño rain belt focusing further south. The winter of 2015-16 is already the wettest in Seattle’s 123-year weather history--an utterly unexpected result during a strong El Niño year--and the downpours show no sign of abating. As of Sunday night, Sea-Tac Airport had racked up 39.44” of moisture in the wet season that began on October 1, 2015. Measurable rain has occurred at Sea-Tac on each of the first seven days of March. The only time March began in Seattle with a longer streak of rain was March 1-8, 1919. That record appears likely to tumble, as there is rain in Seattle’s forecast every day this week.


Figure 4. The 500-mb forecast from the 12Z Monday run of the GFS model, valid at 72 hours (12Z or 7:00 am EST Thursday, March 10), shows a deep, slow-moving upper low centered over southern Texas, with a strong, warm ridge over the northeast U.S. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

Severe weather, heavy rain still heading for south-central U.S.
The powerful upper jet plowing across California this weekend will soon carve out an unusually deep upper low extending far south into Mexico. Near-record low temperatures (especially cool daytime highs) can be expected across northern Mexico, with snow falling atop some of the higher Sierra Madre peaks. The upper low will help channel copious amounts of tropical moisture northward into the south-central U.S., setting the stage for a multi-day period of torrential rain and severe weather. With the atmosphere so moist at all levels, and with upper- and lower-level winds all blowing more or less from the south, this doesn’t look like a classic spring outbreak with isolated supercell thunderstorms. Instead, we’re likely to see many clusters and lines of intense storms dumping extremely heavy rain, with some severe weather embedded in the mix. Short-lived circulations and brief tornadoes may crop up as the storms multiply, making for a tough week for local forecasters. As of midday Monday, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center was not highlighting any areas of significant severe weather for the next several days, another sign that most of the storms are unlikely to be especially destructive. For most areas, SPC is dubbing the event a “long duration-low probability tornado risk.”


Figure 5. Convective outlooks issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center as of midday Monday, valid for the 24 hours until 6:00 am CST on (left to right) Tuesday, March 8; Wednesday, March 9; and Thursday, March 10.


The very moist air mass expected to flow into the south-central states will approach or exceed precipitable water records for March at some locations. Together with the powerful upper low, this means the potential for extreme rainfall, gradually spreading from Texas and Arkansas into Louisiana and Mississippi as the week unfolds. The details will depend on how each night’s showers and thunderstorms evolve; it’s likely that the zones of highest rainfall will get shunted southeastward each day as rain-cooled air pushes a surface front in that direction. When all is said and done by week’s end, we may see totals of more than a foot of rain in some locations, with widespread 6-12” amounts.

Bob Henson


Figure 6. 7-day precipitation forecast for the period from 12Z (7:00 am EST) Monday, March 7, though Monday, March 14, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.


Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

any flooding so far out in California? stay alert and safe folks.
Not that I've seen. I have .42" for the past 2 days.

Thanks for the Update Mr. Henson...
Thanks Dr.; moisture city out there at the moment over California and over the Pacific inbound along with the huge-elongated ULL:





These totals could be devastating and record breaking. Again. Looking at the NE Pacific, this could be just the warning bell of a wild Spring to come.
What kind of dent will these storms put into the drought update on Thursday? Or is it still too early to tell?



Another line of storms coming into San Diego County off the Pacific. Thanks for the update Mr Henson!

Quoting 5. LuckySD:

What kind of dent will these storms put into the drought update on Thursday? Or is it still too early to tell?






They will not hurt that is for sure! Can only help....just hope we get a stretch of rain into that dark red area.
Does anyone know where I can see a radar for Cap Haitien, Haiti? I find satellite, but no way to see precipitation.
Quoting 8. fmbill:

Does anyone know where I can see a radar for Cap Haitien, Haiti? I find satellite, but no way to see precipitation.
Looks like that station is offline.
Anyone seen or heard from sar?

3rd time I got rain today......
It will be a bit of a tricky forecast over the next several days in terms of where the worst of the rain ultimately sets up in accordance with the actual trajectory of the lows and how much moisture is pull in from the Pacific and then from the Gulf as the lows push east. We will just to wait and see at this point:

Tuesday:

Forecast of Fronts/Pressure and Weather valid Tue 06Z

Wednesday:

Forecast of Fronts/Pressure and Weather valid Wed 00Z

Thursday:

Forecast of Fronts/Pressure valid Thu 00Z

How much you get JOE?
Snow/Rain mix with current line of storms. Dark skies and windy!
Quoting 13. PedleyCA:


How much you get JOE?


3-6-2016 0.22
3-7-2016 0.44 so far drip drip drip
Light snow again....no accumulation
Quoting 1. LargoFl:
any flooding so far out in California? stay alert and safe folks.
No flooding and none forecast for The California/Nevada region. (LINK)

With Windows, left-click and drag to pan, use scroll wheel to zoom.

Green dots indicate no flooding, red dots indicate flooding or expected flooding.

Hover cursor over dots for quick info, click on dot to go to a detail page for any river gauge station.
Delete duplicate - WU is unstable and flaky again.
Was anyone else unable to load the site a few minutes ago?
Quoting 19. 62901IL:

Was anyone else unable to load the site a few minutes ago?
nope blogs were down I guess...again
Very slow to post comments. Also slow to refresh. Ain't on my end either, Fast Machine, Fast connection.
22. RayT
Quoting 5. LuckySD:

What kind of dent will these storms put into the drought update on Thursday? Or is it still too early to tell?






I'd like to think that each colored area will become 1 shade lighter within the next 10 days.... 2 shades lighter if everyone is lucky.

any more than 2 shades we probably risk destructive flooding in some areas.

parched ground doesnt need heavy rains that dump 3-5 inches at once. They need light rains that dump 3-5 inches over the course of a number of days so that the moisture absorbs into the ground.

I guess we can only wait and see how things turn out.

Rain is always better than no rain, and I guess it's wrong to complain about how we get the moisture.
Topped our forecast high of 67 by a degree in S C IL, had a trace of rain this a.m. Dew pt is at 46, pressure in upper 29.8s, had a gust near 30 from the S. Waiting to see how much we get Tues night through Thurs, current forecast in 3-5" range. Showing no highs below 60 in 10 day, & some 70s at end (for what they're worth). Hope it keeps coming in slow & soaking in Ped, Joe, & Tim's neck of the woods & snowing to beat the band E of bayfog & redwood.
DC Capitol Weather Gang weighs in. I agree with them



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2016/03/07/we-declare-winter-over-and-s pring-here-effective-today/?wpisrc=nl_buzz
Quoting 21. PedleyCA:

Very slow to post comments. Also slow to refresh. Ain't on my end either, Fast Machine, Fast connection.
They are having problems sitewide. I had to go to the NWS site to get radar. The rain has started here in north central Texas.
Scott should look at this.
Link
Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
Looks like huge initialization errors in the CFSv2 and NCAR_CCSM4 model in the equatorial Atlantic
Quoting 21. PedleyCA:

Very slow to post comments. Also slow to refresh. Ain't on my end either, Fast Machine, Fast connection.


But a slow user... Hi Ped!

35F today - not as icy as most of the snow has melted away.
Quoting 26. Gearsts:

Scott should look at this.
Link
Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
Looks like huge initialization errors in the CFSv2 and NCAR_CCSM4 model in the equatorial Atlantic


Shhhh. Don't tell him that.
This El Nino is weakening, but I'm not sure if it is weakening fast enough to get to ENSO neutral by spring. It is no longer a "Very Strong El Nino" as the NINO 3.4 anomaly has dropped to -1.9C but it is still a strong one, and will have to weaken very quickly in order to get to ENSO neutral by May or June. Right now I'd say Weak La Nina is the most likely scenario for 2016-17, with ENSO neutral also a possibility.

Don't forget: 2005 was ENSO neutral and was the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record.
Quoting 27. Dakster:



But a slow user... Hi Ped!

35F today - not as icy as most of the snow has melted away.


Who you calling slow. .27 + .24 for the storm, returned the extra sandbag....lol
Quoting 26. Gearsts:

Scott should look at this.
Link
Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
Looks like huge initialization errors in the CFSv2 and NCAR_CCSM4 model in the equatorial Atlantic


Lol! Big shift ahead in CFSV2 predictions. Once the initialization will be fixed, then the model will show a strong La Nina and a wet peak season in the Atlantic ;)
Quoting 31. CaribBoy:



Lol! Big shift ahead in CFSV2 predictions. Once the initialization will be fixed, then the model will show a strong La Nina and a wet peak season in the Atlantic ;)


I certainly hope so. I've had enough of El Nino now, let's bring on La Nina!
Quoting 31. CaribBoy:



Lol! Big shift ahead in CFSV2 predictions. Once the initialization will be fixed, then the model will show a strong La Nina and a wet peak season in the Atlantic ;)
Euro still had a dry MDR with a cold enso and other models are showing a -AMO setup for the peak season.
Quoting 33. Gearsts:

Euro still had a dry MDR with a cold enso and other models are showing a -AMO setup for the peak season.


Hopefully the good rain is not gone forever...
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
La Nina favors an active Atlantic hurricane season but does not guarantee it. Will have to watch other things.
Quoting 30. PedleyCA:



Who you calling slow. .27 + .24 for the storm, returned the extra sandbag....lol


.22 yesterday
.51 today so far scattered showers still
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Link
Quoting 33. Gearsts:

Euro still had a dry MDR with a cold enso and other models are showing a -AMO setup for the peak season.


In other words, like 2013.
Quoting 38. HurricaneFan:



In other words, like 2013.
That would be and extreme but yes.
It will be interesting to see what the forecasters predict for this upcoming hurricane season. It's very difficult to predict, and I wouldn't be surprised if some agencies predict above average while others predict below average. It's a very challenging forecast, and I highly doubt it will be decided by April/May.
Quoting 40. HurricaneFan:

It will be interesting to see what the forecasters predict for this upcoming hurricane season. It's very difficult to predict, and I wouldn't be surprised if some agencies predict above average while others predict below average. It's a very challenging forecast, and I highly doubt it will be decided by April/May.

What i would say now is that even with the current slower, but still gradual decline, ENSO neutral conditions, albeit very weak el Nino conditions by the start of hurricane season, June 1st. With that being said, I do expect a faster oace of weakening, starting mid March. CFS is clearly an outlier, predicting a 3 year el Nino event, which is highly unlikely. By the end of April, I say that Nino 3.4 will be down to about 0.7-0.9. Interesting hurricane season predictions for the Atlantic, as well as for the Pacific.
Quoting 10. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Anyone seen or heard from sar?


I find it odd sar just dropped off the 'map'. There's an eery
quietness to the blog. I miss his contributions and tales.
If this is a protest, noted, but enuf is enuf ;)
We will have to see what will happen Tuesday night here in central Texas.
Quoting 41. tiggerhurricanes2001:


What i would say now is that even with the current slower, but still gradual decline, ENSO neutral conditions, albeit very weak el Nino conditions by the start of hurricane season, June 1st. With that being said, I do expect a faster oace of weakening, starting mid March. CFS is clearly an outlier, predicting a 3 year el Nino event, which is highly unlikely. By the end of April, I say that Nino 3.4 will be down to about 0.7-0.9. Interesting hurricane season predictions for the Atlantic, as well as for the Pacific.


Something I have noticed is the MDR is considerably warmer this year than it was last year and the year before. However, just a couple of weeks back, it had below-average SSTs.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
158 PM PST MON MAR 7 2016

...AFTER A DRY START TO TUESDAY MINOR WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL
WILL RETURN MOSTLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
MOISTURE EXTENDING DOWN TO AROUND SANTA CRUZ. TOTALS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE FOR URBAN SPOTS -- GENERALLY UNDER 0.15" WHILE
COASTAL RANGES WILL MOSTLY BE UNDER 1/2". MORE LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH BAY ON WEDNESDAY.

OF BIGGER CONCERN IS THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD AS A
POTENTIAL ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR) TAKES AIM ON THE COAST. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE START THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW-MOVING
AR TO SETUP ACROSS OUR REGION. BASED OFF THE CNRFC NUMBERS PLUS
OPERATION AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS FOR THE
NORTH BAY ESPECIALLY IF THIS TURNS OUT TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THAT
REGION. CURRENT QPF AMOUNTS SHOW 3-5" FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS
WITH 1.5" TO 3" FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. PW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 1.25" WHICH IS NEAR THE MONTHLY RECORD...



Pacific jet and a trough dipping deep into the tropics, entraining trans-equatorial air out of the El Nino convective mass southwest of Hawaii. This will ride in on a quasi-stationary boundary that will park somewhere over Northern California starting late Wednesday. This may or may not produce prodigious snow, depending on how much cold air can mix in across the Sierra.
Quoting 36. HurricaneHunterJoe:



.22 yesterday
.51 today so far scattered showers still


.24 yesterday .29 today and still raining lightly, was .17 this morning so adding up slowly (.53 total)
Quoting 44. HurricaneFan:



Something I have noticed is the MDR is considerably warmer this year than it was last year and the year before. However, just a couple of weeks back, it had below-average SSTs.
Atlantic should keep warming up.
Quoting 30. PedleyCA:



Who you calling slow. .27 + .24 for the storm, returned the extra sandbag....lol


Glad you finally got some and rain too...

Quoting 48. Gearsts:

Atlantic should keep warming up.



Could this get us into a warm AMO by hurricane season?
Quoting 50. HurricaneFan:



Could this get us into a warm AMO by hurricane season?
Is difficult to reverse a pattern than has been setup since 2012.
Quoting 5. LuckySD:

What kind of dent will these storms put into the drought update on Thursday?


It won't be much, they need like 4 or 5 more of these events at least.
Quoting 36. HurricaneHunterJoe:



.22 yesterday
.51 today so far scattered showers still


I don't think the rain for South CA panned out as much as the models were saying a few days ago.
The hose is taking shape for the next major system coming into CA, this one is supposed to be even wetter than the last two.

Quoting 33. Gearsts:

Euro still had a dry MDR with a cold enso and other models are showing a -AMO setup for the peak season.

I think is normal or a bit above normal precip in the MDR
Quoting 56. JRRP7:


I think is normal or a bit above normal precip in the MDR



What does the forecast for ASO look like? That is the most important one.
Quoting 26. Gearsts:

Scott should look at this.
Link
Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
Looks like huge initialization errors in the CFSv2 and NCAR_CCSM4 model in the equatorial Atlantic

nice catch
Quoting 56. JRRP7:


I think is normal or a bit above normal precip in the MDR

Wow! Someone here posted the ECMWF showing really high pressure over the Atlantic.
Quoting 52. Gearsts:


(hands rubbing each other) Looks good. :)
Based on this animation El Nino is about to collapse.
Quoting 58. JRRP7:


nice catch
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 3 hhace 3 horas
@Recretos @MJVentrice @mkTippett @TropicalTidbits they know all about it. Not like flipping a switch tgo
In addition Eq.Pacific ocean current already changing drastically to the west, El Nino seems about to collapse soon.
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Link

Incoming and it looks MAD....
Quoting 62. Gearsts:

Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 3 hhace 3 horas
@Recretos @MJVentrice @mkTippett @TropicalTidbits they know all about it. Not like flipping a switch tgo



well would be interesting if this happen
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Link
Quoting 51. Gearsts:

Is difficult to reverse a pattern than has been setup since 2012.


Uh, we still don't even know if we're in a cool AMO now (albeit it's possible), and we definitely weren't in 2012. What are you talking about?
Quoting 68. KoritheMan:



Uh, we still don't even know if we're in a cool AMO now (albeit it's possible), and we definitely weren't in 2012. What are you talking about?
Just returned from a great skiing weekend near Winthrop, Wa. My best friend since high school moved over to the east side of the Cascades about 10 years ago and said this year has been the snowiest by far. Had a big rain storm roll through sat. night and a large slide closed hwy 153 between Twisp & Pateros, had to detour over Loup Loup pass to get home.

39° here in Acme Wa raining off n on, lots of snow on the hills, 2000' snow level. Nothing to serious yet but warnings are up for Wed.



Half way to Rendezvous Pass



Misty in the morning.
.24" yesterday
.30" today
.02 more and I
surpass the .55
in all of February ....
73. vis0
CREDIT:: NASA, NOAA, University of Washington
D&T:: 201603-07;2215_-08;0315
AREA:: COnUS+wATL+GoMx
MY FOCUS:: MidWest-SSE_USofA
SAT IMG:: Blend of 3, final product not a public from any of the 3 aforementioned.
NOTE1::  If your vision reacts negatively to bright/Dark extremes do not view as separated lightning overlay from rain overlay to better see the max rain potential areas (green) under lightning strokes (cyan, yellow, red)
NOTE2:: Colour Key is created from the blending therefore NOT official

WYS(WhatYouSee) 628x488 or @Youtube via https://youtu.be/woVwM4AIgHk(org 1014x755)
Quoting 70. Gearsts:




The February AMO is irrelevant. If you want a better approximation, do a June - November period. SSTs don't take long to warm up once we enter the Northern Hemisphere Spring.
Quoting 74. KoritheMan:



The February AMO is irrelevant. If you want a better approximation, do a June - November period.
Look at those years and correlates to and inactive season.
Quoting 75. Gearsts:

Look at those years and correlates to and inactive season.


You posted a graph showing the February AMO spanning 66 years then claimed there was a correlation just because SSTs were cool then and inactive seasons followed. If you were to use that as evidence of your claim in any academic setting, you'd be torn asunder.

Correlation does not imply causation
Quoting 76. KoritheMan:



You posted a graph showing the February AMO spanning 66 years then claimed there was a correlation just because SSTs were cool then and inactive seasons followed. If you were to use that as evidence in any academic setting, you'd be torn asunder.

Correlation does not imply causation
Good thing this is only a weatherblog and i only have you fellow bloggers to torn me asunder.
Quoting 77. Gearsts:

Good thing this is only a weatherblog and i only have you fellow bloggers to torn me asunder.


Whoa, take it easy dude. I'm just debating you. I'm not insulting you, and if you perceive that, it's your fault.

Maybe if you get offended this easily, the Internet isn't for you. And btw, if you have to resort to whining and/or kneejerk, what you're saying is probably not worth listening to anyway. Your argument should stand on its own.
btw, how do you think we learn and improve? We put ourselves in uncomfortable situations (like the one you're in now), and we strive for unreachable standards. That applies to anything; music, meteorology, video games, writing, directing, mathematics... anything. Nobody is inerrant.
Quoting 78. KoritheMan:



Whoa, take it easy dude. I'm just debating you. I'm not insulting you, and if you perceive that, it's your fault.

Maybe if you get offended this easily, the Internet isn't for you. And btw, if you have to resort to whining and/or kneejerk, what you're saying is probably not worth listening to anyway. Your argument should stand on its own.
Interesting...
81. vis0

Quoting 21. PedleyCA:

Very slow to post comments. Also slow to refresh. Ain't on my end either, Fast Machine, Fast connection.
See my test, sure i'm on 56k but the VID you see on my zilly pg.7 cmmnt#350  .  VID is sped up 10 times and all i was doing was plus(ing) a comment (BTW for those that might say "pay", i don't brag ast notice only 2nd time i mention this in over 14 yrs, i donated easily more than 10 times the yearly fee in the early 2null years. Why?,  cause i liked a website that allowed comments as to weather and sharing weather observations as it shows worldwide weather events and teaches. i don't pay now cause site is too unstable but i do have an app in where i allow ~1 AD to show of every 8 and click on ~5 ADs a day.)

WEATHER::: wondering if AZ might see slight flooding? (not much rain just that slight rain their going to flow rather than "sow")
Quoting 72. PedleyCA:

.24" yesterday
.30" today
.02 more and I
surpass the .55
in all of February ....


.22 YESTERDAY
.62 TODAY so far.......still showers but most have moved south of me, maybe a few more before all is done.
Quoting 79. KoritheMan:

btw, how do you think we learn and improve? We put ourselves in uncomfortable situations (like the one you're in now), and we strive for unreachable standards. That applies to anything; music, meteorology, video games, writing, directing, mathematics... anything. Nobody is inerrant.
Wait who are you talking to now?
Quoting 54. MahFL:



I don't think the rain for South CA panned out as much as the models were saying a few days ago.


The models had a hard time coming to agreement on these last 2 systems.......placement was very important 50 miles further west and ya end up with no rain......they got it pretty good but 24-48 hours out. Im seeing totals of 1-3 inches at many locations and most got decent rain. I even had like 4 snow showers at mi casa, which was way below the forecast snow elevation of 4500' I am at 3325' elevation


You can see a little twisting off the San Diego County coast where the 500mb low cutoff is at. Into Northern Mexico and then over to TX/LA to cause havoc.
Quoting 82. Patrap:




YIKES.....
The only thing i said is that a cold or negative AMO in the winter spring favors and inactive hurricane season.
The same way El nino favors and inactive season.
Quoting 84. Gearsts:

Wait who are you talking to now?


You, because you seemed like you were under consternation at what I said.

Again, I'm not trying to insult you. I do know how evidence and logic work though, and I'm trying to spread that to others. I also have nothing against you.
Quoting 88. Gearsts:

The only thing i said is that a cold or negative AMO in the winter spring favors and inactive hurricane season.
The same way El nino favors and inactive season.


If that's what you were saying, it was very poorly worded and performed because you used February to prove a relationship to a season that exists in the Summer.

Not to mention Spring has nothing to do with a season in the Summer. Your claim that the AMO is a significant factor in hurricane activity is correct; there's a well-documented relationship there. But its state in the Spring, as far as I know, has literally no correlation to its alignment in the Summer. You were fallacious in using that, and that's what I was pointing out. It wasn't insult, and I have no idea why you got upset.
Also, if I didn't think you were at least somewhat credible, I wouldn't be debating you anymore. I'd have dismissed you already.
Quoting 42. PuppyToes:



I find it odd sar just dropped off the 'map'. There's an eery
quietness to the blog. I miss his contributions and tales.
If this is a protest, noted, but enuf is enuf ;)


I just know he has some health issues and hope all is ok. Maybe he is on vacation sin-computer/smart phone.
93. vis0
One of three VIDs (all on Spanish TV) of La-Bama damage from strong winds / Tornadoes. Not showing other VIDs as showed what seemed as worse injuries (Spanish TV does not block injuries nor peoples face). i know sar2401 is more towards the eastern Bama side  but the other VIDs showed damage more as to strong winds in central towards eastern Bama but also figured friend or family could be near either areas this sar2401 would be busy, to say the least.


@Youtube viahttps://youtu.be/84Xr-vTewkc

HOPEFULLY its the following and sar2401 in his mind figures lets get neighbors homes fixed before other storms hit and not go on the web where i'll only become more frustrated.  

You might ask why not sar2401 post a quick note say such?

Maybe sar2401 tried and site was flaky, i know it was as i was trying to post VIDs/ANIgif of the La/Bama blow up storms satellite imagery and saw Patrap comments seem to be not in sequence (dates go goofy when servers or whatever cracks up) or %u039B^RADAR~~)))  locked the bedroom door from the inside and swallowed they key.

 

If sar2401 or sar2401s neighbors where not affected by last weeks Louisiana towards Alabama twisters/high winds then sar2401 probably saw     tH e    wR       i    (LOADING....) TING ON th  e (LOADING...) w         &a mp;n bsp; a         &a mp;n bsp;   l       l       ON THE POSITIVE SIDE the site really gives one an opportunity to create an entire dinner for four from when hitting post to finally being able to see on the blog what one posted.

 

Now being that there is active weather i do not want to change the subject from observing weather and warning others to where is sar2401 as sar2401 would say the same (i think) so lets mentally send positive thoughts and keep up the look out for any weather watches & warnings.

Quoting 90. KoritheMan:



If that's what you were saying, it was very poorly worded and performed because you used February to prove a relationship to a season that exists in the Summer.

Not to mention spring has nothing to do with a season in the summer. Your claim that the AMO is a significant factor in hurricane activity is correct; there's a well-documented relationship there. But its state in the Spring, as far as I know, has literally no correlation to its alignment in the Summer. You were fallacious in using that, and that's what I was pointing out. It wasn't insult, and I have no idea why you got upset.
Is difficult say what i want because my english sucks and it looks like i'm 4.
Pero no estoy enojado, era mas como comentario sarcastico para admitir que tienes razon aunque no entendiste bien lo que dije. Cada vez que yo escribo algo en el blog tengo que usar a google para corregir la majoria de los disparate que yo escribo.
Quoting 94. Gearsts:

Is difficult say what i want because my english sucks and it looks like i'm 4.
Pero no estoy enojado, era mas como comentario sarcastico para admitir que tienes razon aunque no entendiste bien lo que dije. Cada vez que yo escribo algo en el blog tengo que usar a google para corregir la majoria de los disparate que yo escribo.


I did forget that your native language isn't English. Sorry for overlooking that.
El nino haiku

El nino is back
Bringing much needed rain to
California
98. vis0
Quoting 69. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's abridged selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment. Visit my blog for today's complete list in comment #357.



A Sight for Sore Eyes: The Return of True Color to Geostationary Satellites, A Call for College Students to Help Shape Their States' Clean Power PlansNovel ocean-current turbine design: Taming oceans for 24/7 powerCloudy problems: Today's clouds might not be the same as preindustrial ones
* (Rain)cloud computing: Researchers work to improve how we predict climate change
Shipwrecks, tree rings reveal Caribbean hurricanes in buccaneer era: hurricanes during 1645-1715 period less frequent than any other time since 1500Climate deadline looms for African food crops: Beans are sensitive to night-time temperatures, making them particularly vulnerable to climatic changesOklahoma expands plan to curtail earthquakes in state

The following two articles are from the same newspaper, same day: Most Americans don't drink (or trust) tap water: Should they?
Poll: About half of Americans are 'very confident' in tap water

************************************************* **************************************************

Ted Cruz's favorite argument about climate change just got weaker Truss Ted!  Total Solar Eclipse Will End the Day Before It Begins
As to types of clouds, could not they read tops of mountains or tall structures throughout the world and test the layers as in rock/paint/stones (used to build or maintain tall structures) and read the cloud "makeup" (acidity - aerosols) that came in contact with those high at the low cloud layer objects?
Regarding the posts on Sar2014 being AWOL, he does seem to keep the blog moving, but,! some of his stories make me wonder how he accomplished all the things he says he has done. I'm sure it's possible, and if it's all true, I wish I was his sidekick while he was on his journeys.
JMO
100. vis0
CREDIT:: NASA, NOAA, University of Washington
D&T:: 201603-08;0000_-08;0730
AREA:: ePAC+WeUSofA+WeMx
MY FOCUS:: Southern California, Arizona and lets see if that (storm) cell from Hawaii (pineapple state) makes a connection to HHJoe...make sure ya paid yer cell phone bill HHjoe, to assure a better "connection".
SAT IMG:: Blend of 3, final product not a public from any of the 3 aforementioned.
NOTE1:: Colour Key is created from the blending therefore NOT official
NOTE2:: Hey make sure those studying AtmosRivers are awake, since some might have gone to sleep being its midnight near Hawaii as these storm cells began to link up / train.
NOTE3:: PedleyCA get back that 3rd sandbag and clone it a few times.

WYS(WhatYouSee) 628x488 or @Youtube via https://youtu.be/PVFU9-7O9SE(org 1024x800)
102. vis0
North of Fort Worth (i think) wind damage, winds higher than 60mph no confirmed Tornado though as usual the public thinks that though it was during the night, Posting this since i see no other member posting it.
103. vis0


Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments 2330 100 26 NW OZONA CROCKETT TX 3098 10151 (SJT) 0025 100 6 N WEATHERFORD PARKER TX 3286 9780 (FWD) 0037 100 6 N WEATHERFORD PARKER TX 3286 9780 (FWD) 0135 100 3 ENE CULLISON PRATT KS 3765 9886 (DDC) 0158 175 ERA COOKE TX 3350 9730 QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN ERA. (FWD) 0212 125 6 WSW NEOLA STAFFORD KS 3784 9861 (DDC)
Morning, all. Looks like a stormy day across central TX ...

Quoting 102. vis0:

North of Fort Worth (i think) wind damage, winds higher than 60mph no confirmed Tornado though as usual the public thinks that though it was during the night, Posting this since i see no other member posting it.
pretty strong winds there alright
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 AM EST Tue Mar 08 2016

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 08 2016 - 12Z Thu Mar 10 2016

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible for portions of the
southern plains and lower/middle Mississippi valley...

...Rain and mountain snow expected for northern California and the Pacific
Northwest...

...Well above average temperatures expected from the Midwest to the
Northeast...

A large and anomalous upper-level low is digging into northern Mexico this
morning, and will slowly move southeastward through the next couple days.
At the surface, a low pressure system associated with the upper-low will
move into western Texas by late this afternoon. A warm, moist, and
unstable air mass across the southern plains and Mississippi valley ahead
of this system will result in the development of widespread showers and
thunderstorms today from the southern plains to the Great Lakes. Some
thunderstorms may become severe across portions of the southern plains,
where the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a slight to enhanced risk
of severe thunderstorms. Additionally, flash flooding is possible across
portions of the southern plains and lower Mississippi valley. On Wednesday
and Thursday, the axis of shower and thunderstorm activity will shift
slightly eastward each day, with many of the same areas receiving
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Excessive rainfall amounts of 5 to
10 inches, with locally higher amounts, are forecast across portions of
the western Gulf Coast, southern plains, and lower Mississippi valley
through Thursday morning, with additional rainfall possible during the day
on Thursday. The potential for multiple days of heavy rainfall across the
southern plains and lower Mississippi valley will result in an increasing
threat of flooding and flash flooding through mid-week.

A cold front will spread rain and mountain snow into the Pacific Northwest
and northern California today. This system will weaken tonight into early
Wednesday morning as it moves inland, bringing scattered areas of rain and
snow to the Intermountain region. During the day on Wednesday, a stronger
Pacific low pressure system will approach the northwestern U.S., once
again spreading rain and mountain snow into the region. This round of
precipitation will continue into Thursday.

High pressure at the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere will promote
well above average temperatures through the next couple days from the
Midwest to the Northeast. Afternoon high temperatures today are forecast
to be 15 to 30 degrees above average across the Midwest and portions of
the Mid-Atlantic. The warm temperatures will expand into the New England
on Wednesday.


Good morning abroad!
Here some aftermath of European low "Bianca":


Serbia Declares Emergency after Regional Floods
The authorities have declared an emergency situation in the Cacak, Lucani and Arilje municipalities in central and eastern Serbia due to heavy rain and flooding. ...

More reports of the latest weather events:
European Severe Weather Database

Indonesian province declares emergency as forest fires flare
Source: Reuters - Tue, 8 Mar 2016 06:10 GMT
CSIRO looks to Britain to outsource climate research
March 8 2016 - 8:44PM, Peter Hannam and Adam Morton
CSIRO is considering outsourcing climate modelling work to Britain - a step a senior executive conceded would reduce Australia's strengths in the field.
Grilled by Labor and Greens senators at a Senate inquiry in Hobart over cuts to up to half its climate research workforce, CSIRO executive Alex Wonhas said the organisation was considering contracting some work to counterparts in the British Met Office.
"I don't think that I can credibly claim that everything [we are doing now] will continue," Dr Wonhas said. "There will be a reduction in our activity."
It is understood CSIRO executives hope signing a contract with leaders in international climate change research at the Met Office will blunt international criticism of its climate research cuts. ...
Steady dissipating.
ABC......Get ready for a total solar eclipse when the moon obscures the sun, darkening the skies and casting a spectacular shadow.

The bad news: Chances are you're one of the billions of people who won't have a front-row seat to the spectacle in the sky this week. ...tonight Tuesday

A total solar eclipse will be visible to people in parts of southeast Asia, while people in parts of Alaska, Hawaii, Guam and American Samoa will be able to enjoy a partial solar eclipse, according to NASA.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND OK...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TX ACROSS PARTS OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY NWD INTO OK FROM THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS THAT CAN HEAT UP SUFFICIENTLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. A 40 TO 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THIS FEATURE AND ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR STORM ROTATION.
ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ACROSS NCNTRL AND NE TX EXTENDING INTO ECNTRL
OK. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
Who wants to see an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2016?
Quoting 112. NoobDave:

Who wants to see an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2016?


I mean i do, but i don't want ppl to be affected.
Good Morning; here comes the rain again.............................Notice how the enhanced risk for today in Southern Texas coincides with the jet stream dip down there.

And the overall forecast and temperature differentials: again, the very warm temps in Southern Texas will add to the instability later this afternoon.


Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

And finally the current meso-scale complex over Central Texas; nasty looking line of cells forming already in front of the low:

South Plains sector loop

One high wind gust (60 mph) so far reported in Texas earlier this am:


today Reports Graphic
And the big picture; the Texas low is tapping into moisture from the Pacific jet and starting to bring in some moisture from the Northern Gulf on the Eastern side:




Quoting 109. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Steady dissipating.


So is the cold pool. You can somewhat make out what could be another warm pool getting itself together underneath the dissipating cool pool. I don't know if many are aware that what is stopping us from going to La-Nina is because of what's happening across the Indian Ocean as anomalous westward moving currents across the Indian Ocean seems to be setting the stage for another +IOD down the pike. What we maybe witnessing is history in the making as you can see signs all over the Globe pointing toward a possible CFS win.

I can say I haven't seen anything like this in my lifetime.
What is so amazing is not even ONE member of the CFSv2 dips below -0.5C.

November CFSv2
This is shaping up to be an eventful next 2 days.
Kenny Strawn
‏@strawn_04

This explains CFSv2's defiance of most models regarding demise of #ElNiño: westward surge in IO. #IndianOceanDipole
Quoting 121. DavidHOUTX:

This is shaping up to be an eventful next 2 days.


Get used to it. If the CFS verifies then this upcoming Fall could be very wet from Texas to FL. CFS is showing this next resurgence of El-Nino being more eastward located closer to South America.

Quoting 123. StormTrackerScott:



Get used to it. If the CFS verifies then this upcoming Fall could be very wet from Texas to FL. CFS is showing this next resurgence of El-Nino being more eastward located closer to South America.




Bring it on
Fort Worth and Dallas under the gun, these rain totals over the next two days are going to be something. These storms are starting out so early, strong and very slow moving. By noon this should be quite the systems to watch. Stay safe Texas. Hope people are ready. Instant replay from last year in many ways. Record rain and tornadoes in the OKC area last May was tragic. Today's rain will be the real problem, could see more records fall. Hoping tornadoes stay at a minimum compared to a similar event last Spring.
We are under a tornado watch as of 7:25 am this morning in the Austin area extending up to the DFW area until 1:00 pm. The mets have been talking about tonight into Wed morning being the nasty stuff so my hope is that this morning a wide swath of area gets wet, cools down and neutralizes the threat for later tonight. Oh well the cap of serenity we had yesterday keeping these storms at bay eroded. Hopefully tonight we see just a nice widespread rain event.

Quoting 125. DeepSeaRising:

Fort Worth and Dallas under the gun, these rain totals over the next two days are going to be something. These storms are starting out so early, strong and very slow moving. By noon this should be quite the systems to watch. Stay safe Texas. Hope people are ready. Instant replay from last year in many ways. Record rain and tornadoes in the OKC area last May was tragic. Today's rain will be the real problem, could see more records fall. Hoping tornadoes stay at a minimum compared to a similar event last Spring.
In the Spring tornado season peak, we should see the severe weather-tornado risk shift North to the Texas Panhandle and Tornado Alley area:







tornado warned storm moving into Fort Worth area.
Quoting 115. weathermanwannabe:

And the overall forecast and temperature differentials: again, the very warm temps in Southern Texas will add to the instability later this afternoon.



That's a big overlapping chunk of yellow and red... Stay safe everyone in the south!
test
Quoting 112. NoobDave:

Who wants to see an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2016?


Yes, absolutely.
135. JRRP7
Quoting 120. StormTrackerScott:

What is so amazing is not even ONE member of the CFSv2 dips below -0.5C.

November CFSv2


well scot...this is not good initialisation for the CFSv2

we will see...

another thing... low pressure in Australia means rise the SOI


Global warming in 1908, oh my:

http://www.aol.com/article/2016/03/07/iceberg-tha t-sank-titanic-estimated-to-be-100-000-years-old/2 1324242/?intcmp=hplnws

"Unusually warm temperatures is one hypothesis for why the breakaway occurred around 1908." - The 4th paragraph.
137. JRRP7
?
Global warming in 1908, oh my:

http://www.aol.com/article/2016/03/07/iceberg-tha t-sank-titanic-estimated-to-be-100-000-years-old/2 1324242/?intcmp=hplnws

"Unusually warm temperatures is one hypothesis for why the breakaway occurred around 1908." - 4th paragraph.
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Quoting 76. KoritheMan:



You posted a graph showing the February AMO spanning 66 years then claimed there was a correlation just because SSTs were cool then and inactive seasons followed. If you were to use that as evidence of your claim in any academic setting, you'd be torn asunder.

Correlation does not imply causation


Actually, there is a whole branch of. . . Science? . . .Business? that uses correlation. It is known as Big Data. The idea is that there are no samples taken, rather everything is measured. One of the slogans is "N equals All"

I am not say that the original poster has a point. Just saying the old, Correlation does not mean Causation meme does not have the touch stone value it did have.

Additionally, humans use correlation, or inductive reasoning regularly. Robert Cialdini in his book Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion provides examples how and why we must use inductive reasoning which is pretty much based on correlation. He also shows the pitfalls and how these short cuts are used and abused.

https://pdfbooksfreedownload.wordpress.com/2014/1 2/03/download-influence-the-psychology-of-persuasi on-pdf-ebook/

I recommend every person that ever thinks of debating on the internet, or walking into Walmart read the book and study it.
Quoting 94. Gearsts:

Is difficult say what i want because my english sucks and it looks like i'm 4.
Pero no estoy enojado, era mas como comentario sarcastico para admitir que tienes razon aunque no entendiste bien lo que dije. Cada vez que yo escribo algo en el blog tengo que usar a google para corregir la majoria de los disparate que yo escribo.

You contribute much valuable information to this blog.
Big line of storms with lots and lots of rain.

Quoting 138. Sandy82579:

Global warming in 1908, oh my:

http://www.aol.com/article/2016/03/07/iceberg-tha t-sank-titanic-estimated-to-be-100-000-years-old/2 1324242/?intcmp=hplnws

"Unusually warm temperatures is one hypothesis for why the breakaway occurred around 1908." - 4th paragraph.

So, if AGW is true then there could not possibly have been spells of above average temperatures around Greenland in 1908? Is this what you are saying? Seriously?
Agree with sentiment wholeheartedly.

Quoting 141. ACSeattle:


You contribute much valuable information to this blog.
Quoting 94. Gearsts:

Is difficult say what i want because my english sucks and it looks like i'm 4.
Pero no estoy enojado, era mas como comentario sarcastico para admitir que tienes razon aunque no entendiste bien lo que dije. Cada vez que yo escribo algo en el blog tengo que usar a google para corregir la majoria de los disparate que yo escribo.


Keep on hammering at it. There are no final exams, and you only get better. You probably have an advantage because you are forced to be efficient with your words.

I might recommend a fun book, it might help, it might not, but the book is fun no less.

http://www.amazon.com/Thing-Explainer-Complicated -Stuff-Simple/dp/0544668251/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid =1457448627&sr=8-1&keywords=thing+explainer

Written by the author of XKCD.

https://what-if.xkcd.com/146/
146. JRRP7
Just a nice, overcast, cool, drizzly morning so far for me.
Wasn't raining yet on my drive in but Houston drivers were acting like it was ..saw two accidents on my six mile jaunt.
Anyone figure out a way that we can find sar? We need a WU search and rescue team for occasions like this.
At the big airport in Houston at work. Rain has started---the first wave of just how much?
Guess we will know by Thursday evening.
Tomorrow looks to be an interesting weather day: floods, winds, snow and rain oh my! On another note, me thinks the NWS is a little depressed over our record rainy weather... it's still raining and rain is forecast the rest of the period. Oh and no thunder on my birthday =(, but it was great anyway, thanks for the birthday wishes!

An excerpt from the Seattle NWS Discussion:

AS HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS MUCH TO TALK ABOUT WHEN IT COMES TO THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THIS BEING A VERY WET AND WINDY SYSTEM...THUS...THE INHERITED FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT HAVE ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COAST. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE THAT THESE WINDS MAY ALSO BE PRESENT FOR NORTHERN INLAND AREAS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME MODELS SEEM CONTENT TO KEEP HIGHER SPEED WINDS IN THAT AREA OUT OVER THE WATER. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE WATCH FOR NOW...BUT DAY SHIFT CAN REVISIT WITH FRESH DATA. SPEAKING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FLOOD WATCH...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH QPF VALUES OVER THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...SO LOOKS LIKE THOSE NEW FLOOD VALUES FOR THE SKOKOMISH ARE ABOUT TO BE MADE USEOF. AS IF THAT WAS NOT ENOUGH...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING SOME SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS AS IT PASSES THROUGH ALSO. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RIGHT AROUND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR AND LIFTING SNOW LEVELS BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY PROVE A LIMITING FACTOR. THAT SAID...WILL OPT TO WAIT ON ISSUING ANYTHING IN THIS VEIN AT THIS TIME...BUT WORTH KEEPING IN MIND IF MAKING ANY PLANS FOR THOSE AREAS. LASTLY...THE COUPLING OF THIS PASSING STRONG LOW AND HIGH TIDE MAY MAKE FOR INTERESTING SURF/TIDAL ISSUES. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP MOIST GOING INTO THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY ...GIVING A BRIEF RESPITE IN RAIN THAT LOOKS TO EXTEND INTO LATE MORNING...MAYBE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. SMR

.LONG TERM...BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER TROUGH JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LOOKS TO GET DRAWN UP INTO THE PAC NW BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CANADIAN COAST...RESULTING IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A WET WEEKEND...SURPRISING ABSOLUTELY NO ONE. MODELS DO START TO DIVERGE HERE THOUGH. THE ECMWF...IN WHAT IS STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE SADISTIC...KEEPS THE LOW SPINNING OFF THE CANADIAN COAST SENDING WAVE AFTER WAVE OF PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...PUSHING THE LOW THROUGH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY AND BRINGING A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR NEXT TUESDAY. SMR

Sadistic models eh? I bet Arkansas might agree...
151. elioe
Foehn wind forecast to Finland next week.

Welcome spring, even if temporary! I can't wait for the snow to melt, and a good bicycle riding season to begin.
152. JRRP7
Cali still needs a huge amount of water!
154. JRRP7
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
Combined SST + Atmospheric analogs for February concur with a change to -ENSO by June, agreeing with models.
Cells increasing on Houston radar

Orleans Parish


Coastal Flood AdvisoryIssued: 3:55 AM CST Mar. 8, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 6 am Wednesday to 6 PM
CST Thursday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Advisory... which is in effect from 6 am Wednesday to 6 PM
CST Thursday.

* Coastal flooding... all Gulf coastal areas from the mouth of the
Atchafalaya River to the Mississippi-Alabama state line are
expected to experience tides up to 2 feet above normal levels.

* Timing... early morning Wednesday and again late Wednesday
through Thursday.

* Impacts... little to minor impacts early Wednesday. Minor flooding
of low lying coastal raodways and areas normally subject to
coastal flooding during abnormal high tides outside protection
levees late Wednesday through Thursday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1018 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 943 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 932 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 927 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 922 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 916 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 912 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 859 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 851 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 836 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 827 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 826 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 802 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 756 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 750 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 746 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 743 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 737 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 725 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Okay, was trying to quote Pat and WU didnt like it

Was mentioning that I am listening to KPRC950 out of San Antonio and they mentioned earlier about hearing sirens ...

They are pretty nonchalant about the severe weather in the area
Storms SE of Houston to intensify quickly, maybe producing short live tornadoes. Where will that southern branch build in. Going to be impressive when it does. We should go ahead and say it. This is not normal.
I've got a dewpoint at 70, we are primed and ready to go.

Coast is under coastal flood warning with tides coming over low lying roads such as on Bolivar Rd and west Galveston Bay near Seabrook such as Toddville Rd might have issues
Quoting 110. LargoFl:

ABC......Get ready for a total solar eclipse when the moon obscures the sun, darkening the skies and casting a spectacular shadow.

The bad news: Chances are you're one of the billions of people who won't have a front-row seat to the spectacle in the sky this week. ...tonight Tuesday

A total solar eclipse will be visible to people in parts of southeast Asia, while people in parts of Alaska, Hawaii, Guam and American Samoa will be able to enjoy a partial solar eclipse, according to NASA.



A peak total eclipse will occur over the continental US next year. Greatest extent will be in western Kentucky but the path of totality will pass by Nashville. So if you want to get your country and bluegrass on while saying hi to the king and enjoying an astronomical phenomena, head to Nashville August 21st. :)

Path Of Eclipse
Quoting 143. ACSeattle:


So, if AGW is true then there could not possibly have been spells of above average temperatures around Greenland in 1908? Is this what you are saying? Seriously?


Yes, I do believe that is what he/she is implying. I rank that statement at about 2.5 facepalms.
Already 63 in S C IL, dew pt is 52, 29.95" & S wind gust around 30, prob 10-15 avg. 68 high forecast as clouds arrive and slow heating. Rain supposed to start around midnight here if last night's TV runs to be trusted.
Quoting 161. Xyrus2000:



A peak total eclipse will occur over the continental US next year. Greatest extent will be in western Kentucky but the path of totality will pass by Nashville. So if you want to get your country and bluegrass on while saying hi to the king and enjoying an astronomical phenomena, head to Nashville August 21st. :)

Path Of Eclipse
Heard peak will be around Carbondale, IL. Gearing up for big tourist influx down there to view it.
Quoting 159. DeepSeaRising:

Storms SE of Houston to intensify quickly, maybe producing short live tornadoes. Where will that southern branch build in. Going to be impressive when it does. We should go ahead and say it. This is not normal.


It is now.
It's not a record, but 68° in Chicagoland, right now, is way above normal (44°). I'm going out to take some pictures of the flowers!
Quoting 147. justmehouston:

Just a nice, overcast, cool, drizzly morning so far for me.
Wasn't raining yet on my drive in but Houston drivers were acting like it was ..saw two accidents on my six mile jaunt.
Anyone figure out a way that we can find sar? We need a WU search and rescue team for occasions like this.


Hi there

Check your email, okay

-L
2016, the Year the AGW forcing's dole out those Record PWATS globally.





The Solar Eclipse can been seen LIVE on the intranets.

We have that capability ...,

"Gee"
Why the "coding breaux's" at wunderground keep adding that "s" after http in the radar tabs,....you know, your not really fooling anyone are you?


Storm totals so far

What you IT radar guys can do for me, is to fix the radars like they used to be.

Today, if one refreshes a wu radar in zoom, it auto defaults back to the default view one sees on the Home page.

That really cramps the style when trying to roll radars with TVS warnings LIVE.

Maybe try and work on dat issue.

Thanx
Here are the morning's wind and tornado reports; gives us an idea where the worst weather is headed as the afternoon progresses; obviously a little glitch with the NWS radar mosaic (the t-storms are still there):

South Plains sector loop



today Reports Graphic


Quoting 169. Patrap:

The Solar Eclipse can been seen LIVE on the intranets.

We have that capability ...,

"Gee"


Experiencing something on the internet and experiencing it live in person, yea almost the same thing. Rolls eyes walks away shaking head.

On the weather front warm 40f and drizzle with foggy conditions, snow melting nicely


NOAA Storm Prediction Center

An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight
Severe storms will continue moving east-northeast across central and eastern Texas and vicinity today. Another round of severe storms is forecast to develop beginning later today and expanding overnight -- mainly across Texas and most particularly from the Hill Country eastward to encompass much of the Texas coastal area.

Quoting 164. dabirds:

Heard peak will be around Carbondale, IL. Gearing up for big tourist influx down there to view it.


Yeah...I cannot wait!

Also, $pringfield issued a Flood Watch. Who among y'all thinks I'll get one too?
The jet has pushed up into Texas quite a bit from this morning:
I wanted to see if anyone had an idea related to flooding frequency and trends by state. I am doing some research for a contractor where an element of their business relates to repair of transportation infrastructure from flooding. I am trying to determine the frequency of floods by state and if there is any trend up or down. I am currently looking at the number of federal disaster declarations by state that involve flooding since 2000 and the number since 2010 (to pick up the trend). For the trend I was thinking percent of floods from 2000 to 2016 that occurred since 2010.
I am uncertain that this approach to the trend really captures it. It may be too small of a timeframe. Does anyone have any ideas about how to approach this frequency and trend of floods by state issue? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

If you are interested in the data:
States with most federal floods since 2000 – KY (24), MO (23), NE, TN, WV (21), AR (20)

States with least federal floods since 2000 – ID, IN (0), SC, MD, IL (1)

States with highest percentage of floods since 2010 – CO, WY, SC (100%), MT (83%), NC (80%), SD (71%), IA, NM (70%)

States with lowest percentage of floods since 2010 – VA, DE, IL, MD, ID, IN (0%), OH (8%), HI (16%), PA (22%)

Overall there have been 512 federal flood declarations since 2000. 222 (43%) of those have been in 2010 or later.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 161. Xyrus2000:



A peak total eclipse will occur over the continental US next year. Greatest extent will be in western Kentucky but the path of totality will pass by Nashville. So if you want to get your country and bluegrass on while saying hi to the king and enjoying an astronomical phenomena, head to Nashville August 21st. :)

Path Of Eclipse


Nashville is still very ignorant of what's going to happen next year. All hotel rooms in Hopkinsville, KY, for example, are already booked for that week. My mother is planning to quit her job so she can devote her full time to astronomy, including the eclipse. We talked yesterday and she reminded me that "you meteorologists are going to be under pressure to get the forecast right that day."

She even bought a couple of websites already. Nerd.
This is one LONG NWS discussion fer sure.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1022 am CST Tuesday Mar 8 2016


(snip... )


Short term...

Strong onshore flow will persist through the day as a low pressure
system continues to slowly move into Texas and a ridge of high
pressure remains parked over the eastern Seaboard. This strong
onshore flow of 15 to 20 miles per hour will continue to pump a deep layer of
Gulf moisture into the forecast area...with mixing ratios rising
from 11 g/kg this morning to 13 g/kg by this evening. Precipitable water values
will also increase a good half an inch through the day. This
moisture will continue to keep mostly cloudy skies in place
through the day...and will also allow temperatures to remain very
mild with daytime highs rising back into the middle to upper 70s.
These warmer temperatures at the surface...combined with a
complete erosion of the cap aloft and improving lapse rates of
around 6.0 c/km should allow cape values to climb to around 1000
j/kg this afternoon. Once the convective temperature in the upper
70s is reached this afternoon...some scattered convection should
develop. Moisture convergence and forcing aloft should be most
significant over the northwest part of the County Warning Area...and have high
end chance of around 50 percent in place for this area this
afternoon. There is some directional and speed shear in place...so
a few strong to possibly severe storms could form. The highest
risk of storms will be closer to the Atchafalaya basin.

Little change in the ongoing pattern is expected for
tomorrow...and a general repeat of the same conditions is
expected with higher rain chances over the western third of the
County Warning Area. The biggest change from today is that severe parameters look
a bit more favorable...especially for areas west of the Interstate
55 corridor including metropolitan Baton Rouge and the river parishes.
Model soundings indicate that total shear values around Baton
Rouge could exceed 100 knots and storm relative helicity values
could exceed 300 m2/s2. Additionally...lapse rates look to be
slightly steeper and cape values could be closer to 1500 j/kg
during the afternoon hours. A few supercell type thunderstorms
could be possible during the afternoon hours on Wednesday for the
far western zones. Farther to the east...directional shear will
still be impressive...but overall instability and speed shear
values will be much lower. Thus...the threat of severe
thunderstorm development will be significantly lower for the
Mississippi Gulf Coast. A more marginal risk is expected for metropolitan
New Orleans. Temperatures will once again easily climb into the
middle and upper 70s on Wednesday.
Downwelling Kelvin Wave appears to be happening near the Dateline as cooler subsurface waters begin to vanish. This is going to be interesting going forward and the CFS may have a huge win with its forecast if this keeps up. Eric Blake's twitter page has this animated and wow just watch how the cool subsurface waters go poof!

186. vis0

Quoting 119. StormTrackerScott:



So is the cold pool. You can somewhat make out what could be another warm pool getting itself together underneath the dissipating cool pool. I don't know if many are aware that what is stopping us from going to La-Nina is because of what's happening across the Indian Ocean as anomalous westward moving currents across the Indian Ocean seems to be setting the stage for another +IOD down the pike. What we maybe witnessing is history in the making as you can see signs all over the Globe pointing toward a possible CFS win.

I can say I haven't seen anything like this in my lifetime.
(this was not the original reply, i made the error in typing it up on the WxU comment area and it froze. i really had a nice well formatted opinion this is 78% of that)
Now let me post what the opinion of others (italicized) might say plus my comment;
Since its the spring barrier portion of the year most WxModels overdue to one side or the other (Niño v Niña)
The CFS seems to go towards not just creating more ghost storms (sit down Hawaiian Octopus) than most other WxModels and also more edge of extremes storms/WxPatterns (there another WxU blog name)The last 2 months has had errors in the ENSO readings...
(had 1 more reason others might state but it was lost from my thoughts when FFox froze)
 
What i see is that with aGW influencing extremes in weather and the CFS MODEL runs are then fitting into WHEN the weather & aGW are blending (biosphere linking up) to the point that it creates that NEW uncharted weather patterns therefore knowing what ENSO created in the past still will be the more frequent output but some years will not fit at all and that is where CFS looks better. Therefore those that read or make a living from ENSO statistics (readings) will notice that what appear as errors might be but do not be surprised that its aGW forcing what was once considered background noise and now becomes more influential noise
Its not that the CFS is better than others under “normal” (Your Great Grandfathers weather) weather conditions but that with added ingredients that cause extreme weather as what is warming up a planet does, be it GW or aGW then CFS will predict a more closer to the real outcome.
Now in my mind (theories i've come up with NOT FACT, yet)  i figure of every 11 years and eventually ~44 yrs AT THIS PRESENT 11 (x4) = ~44years years cycle/phase of the Sun and Earth’s Magmasphere...
("Magmasphere", word i created and i state it uses its magnetic spiral motions to influence weather and climate, the warmer the planet the more viscous thus more opportunities to spin up long term weather.motions towards either extreme as dry-wet, hot-cold,  "etc - cte"    yet all leaning towards a warmer planets climate)  
...interactions we’ll see 3 to 4 years per cycle and/or 9 to 11 years per phase where the CFS would have better predicted EXTREME ENSO events.
You know why i say “...CFS would have better...” ‘cause as the CFS is improved to match the Euro it won’t be able to create these extreme scenarios in turn not predict aGW extreme effects on weather.
My advice (hey where did everyone go) to NOAA/NASA when you gals and guys improve the CFS use today's version to predict when you see extreme conditions near ENSO.
As to the ENSO corrections mentioned yesterday weird how 2 plus kind of a 3rd ENSO readings are all adding errors or could it be something else its reacting to not yet understood by todays formulas
Quoting 154. JRRP7:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
Combined SST + Atmospheric analogs for February concur with a change to -ENSO by June, agreeing with models.


For everytime I have heard someone mention a analog forecast only to be verified as wrong down the road I would be one rich man. If I were him I would throw analog's out the window as there appears to be a unique situation unfolding later this year and signs are already showing up across the Globe especially across the Indian Ocean which is exhibiting characteristics of another surge in El-Nino coming this Summer.

188. vis0

Quoting 174. Patrap:

ZOOM the radar here, and then refresh the page and tell me what happens.

would like to try it  but being on a slow connection i'm lucky if i see the upper half of 2 radar images though have tried used the SAVE SETTINGS feature, lower left under ANIMATE with the drak gray framing?
Quoting 159. DeepSeaRising:

Storms SE of Houston to intensify quickly, maybe producing short live tornadoes. Where will that southern branch build in. Going to be impressive when it does. We should go ahead and say it. This is not normal.


Not unexpected for a very strong El Nino year.