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Modiki El Niños and Atlantic hurricane activity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:48 PM GMT on July 08, 2009

It's an El Niño year, which typically means that Atlantic hurricane activity will be reduced. But not all El Niño events are created equal when it comes to their impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. Over the past 150 years, hurricane damage has averaged $800 million/year in El Niño years and double that during La Niña years. The abnormal warming of the equatorial Eastern Pacific ocean waters in most El Niño events creates an atmospheric circulation pattern that brings strong upper-level winds over the Atlantic, creating high wind shear conditions unfavorable for hurricanes. Yet some El Niño years, like 2004, don't fit this pattern. Residents of Florida and the Gulf Coast will not soon forget the four major hurricanes that pounded them in 2004--Ivan, Frances, Jeanne, and Charley. Overall, the 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes of the hyperactive hurricane season of 2004 killed over 3000 people--mostly in Haiti, thanks to Hurricane Jeanne--and did $40 billion in damage.

A new paper published in Science last Friday attempts to explain why some El Niño years see high Atlantic hurricane activity. "Impact of Shifting Patterns of Pacific Ocean Warming on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones", by Georgia Tech researchers Hye-Mi Kim, Peter Webster, and Judith Curry, theorizes that Atlantic hurricane activity is sensitive to exactly where in the Pacific Ocean El Niño warming occurs. If the warming occurs primarily in the Eastern Pacific, near the coast of South America, the resulting atmospheric circulation pattern creates very high wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, resulting in fewer hurricanes. This pattern, called the Eastern Pacific Warming (EPW) pattern, occurred most recently during the El Niño years of 1997, 1987, and 1982 (Figure 1). In contrast, more warming occurred in the Central Pacific during the El Niño years of 2004, 2002, 1994, and 1991. The scientists showed that these Central Pacific Warming (CPW) years had lower wind shear over the Atlantic, and thus featured higher hurricane activity than is typical for an El Niño year. One of the paper's authors, Professor Peter J. Webster, said the variant Central Pacific Warming (CPW) El Niño pattern was discovered in the 1980s by Japanese and Korean researchers, who dubbed it modiki El Niño. Modiki is the Japanese word for "similar, but different".


Figure 1. Difference of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average during the peak of hurricane season, August-September-October, for seven years that had El Niño events (except for 2009, when the SST anomaly for July 1 - 3 is plotted). On the left side are years when the El Niño warming primarily occurred in the Eastern Pacific (EPW years). On the right are years when the warming primarily occurred in the Central Pacific (CPW years). Shown on the top of each plot is the number of named storms (NS), hurricanes (H), and intense hurricanes (IH) that occurred in the Atlantic each year. Atlantic hurricane activity tends to be more prevalent in CPW years than EPW years. An average hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What, then, can we expect the current developing El Niño event to do to 2009 hurricane activity? Kim et al. note that in recent decades, the incidence of modiki CPW El Niño years has been increasing, relative to EPW years. However, the preliminary pattern of SST anomalies in the Pacific observed so far in July (lower left image in Figure 1) shows an EPW pattern--more warming in the Eastern Pacific than the Central Pacific. If Kim et al.'s theory holds true, this EPW pattern should lead to an Atlantic hurricane season with activity lower than the average 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. There is still a possibility that the observed warming pattern could shift to the Central Pacific during the peak portion of hurricane season, however. We are still in the early stages of this El Niño, and it is unclear how it will evolve.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It is quite niggardly of some to misjudge an el nino as a death to major tropical activity in the more active parts of the season.
Thanks for clarifying what Haboobs are Patrap... Here in Daytona we think they're something you see at Hooters during Bike Week.
BTW, I just finished my 8th assignment (out of 10) for a grad course I'm taking called 'grant writing and contract administration.'
So if someone wants me to write a weather grant for them, just let me know. I'm almost an expert! LOL
lol that happend to mine too it had a thin layer of ice on the bottom part of the unit. we had to turn it off for 8 hours and put a large pan over it to catch the water.
Quoting hunkerdown:
What happened in prior years is in no way an exact correlation to this year. What happened in the past is in the past and what happens this year is truly yet to be determined. People can predict and post numbers. They are nothing but guesses, harmless at that considering they are guesses for the future.


seems though some don't learn from the past years though.
1005. Drakoen
Quoting Vortex95:
lol that happend to mine too it had a thin layer of ice on the bottom part of the unit. we had to turn it off for 8 hours and put a large pan over it to catch the water.


Our pan overflowed. My ice was like a chunk.
A season will never be the same as previous one but there are correlations and patterns that was quite known to occur which can be matched up with other years although there is no given anything will be similar for one season vs as for another season where you can see similarities between said season and multiple others.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hey SG03 all the crazys are coming out and more yet to come

sit back enjoy the show



yep seems like a trend nightly.
Quoting Vortex95:
A season will never be the same as previous one but there are correlations and patterns that was quite known to occur which can be matched up with other years although there is no given anything will be similar.

Too many variables. Also why no two people from the same parents look, or even behave the same.
Quoting Drakoen:


Blended ice drinks sounds good right about now.

My A/C does that too. I had to chizel out a block of ice from it the past.
Maybe I should turn it off tomorrow a.m. while I'm cleaning the car. Don't want it to get all froze up.
Quoting sporteguy03:


yep seems like a trend nightly.

Have you looked outside? It's a full moon. I'll predict a named tropical system next full moon. (That's not so far on a limb.) Anyone wanna bet a Portlight tee shirt?
Quoting Vortex95:
A season will never be the same as previous one but there are correlations and patterns that was quite known to occur which can be matched up with other years although there is no given anything will be similar.
I agree but they are more of a characteristic correlation, not a guide to determine the precise whens, wheres, whys and hows of this season.
Quoting Chicklit:

Have you looked outside? It's a full moon.


I would if it was not cloudy out, lol.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #2
=============================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression FIVE (NONAME) located at 18.7N 120.7E or 420 NM east-southeast of Hong Kong, China has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 16 knots.

Significant wave height associated with 05W is 10 feet
Quoting BahaHurican:
Maybe I should turn it off tomorrow a.m. while I'm cleaning the car. Don't want it to get all froze up.
i use a hand held hair dryer take of grill go to work melts all the ice inside unit in about 30 mins so the house don't go to long without the ac
hey KOG it is better than a guy in his mothers basement typing in caps lock and a 13 year old posting that he wants a the cat three fish to mosey on over to S Fla to cancel school.
I thought the Doc did a pretty good job showing the difference between these two different forms of el nino. But looking at that map of SSTs posted earlier (by Drak? 23?) it seems we are going to see appreciable warming in the EPac region. I can see potential for a pretty hot 'n heavy six weeks from about 15 Aug to the end of September, because so far we are just on the warm side of neutral. After that, if the EPac continues to warm at a faster rate than the CPac, I wouldn't be surprised to see a decrease in Oct / Nov storms.

I still am more concerned about strength and steering than numbers, though. We'll REALLY be making progress when we can start to give seasonal forecasts that suggest reasonably accurately where the season's strongest systems are likely to go.
its all good V95
Chicklit do you mean you are betting on a named tropical system by the next full moon, or that there will be one on the next full moon?
Hi all.....

Full Moon, and a full blown storm in Niceville this afternoon! Wind, hail, downpour.
El Nino' amd we have had a very wet winter, spring and summer... toss in some "hot" and you've got July on the Panhandle!

On the day of the next full moon we will have a named tropical system, if not a hurricane. I'm betting one Portlight tee shirt. If there is one, you buy me one, if there's not, I buy you one...only one, by the way.
Any takers?
Saying one should ignore past seasons has always seemed .... well, strange..... to me. We can't research what hasn't happened yet. Our only source of info is what has already happened. Even models are useless if they don't have past patterns to begin with (i. e. in training).

Didn't someone say those who don't learn from the past are doomed to repeat it?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
09:00 AM JST July 10 2009
================================

Subject: Tropical Depression in Bashi Channel

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 18.7N 120.2E has sustained winds of 30 knots with gust of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-northwest at 10 knots
Goodnight, all.

Tomorrow is the 36th anniversary of Bahamian Independence, and the fireworks should be starting in about 1/2 hour. Since it may be a little cooler outside as well, I think I'll head out and watch.

New Providence is so tiny (and flat lol) that someone sitting on their porch on the South coast can see the Fireworks display taking place on the north side of the island....

Goodnight, all.
That would be the evening of August 5th. At 8:57 in the evening. Looking at the odds, they are in my favor to say a named tropical system will NOT be in existence at that time in the Atlantic.

I'm gonna think a few minutes on whether to take the bet.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Saying one should ignore past seasons has always seemed .... well, strange..... to me. We can't research what hasn't happened yet. Our only source of info is what has already happened. Even models are useless if they don't have past patterns to begin with (i. e. in training).

Didn't someone say those who don't learn from the past are doomed to repeat it?

Hi Baha. This season so far is reminiscent of '04 for the late start; however, it is much wetter. So don't know what to compare it to.
Goodnight Baha...Enjoy the fireworks and your independence!
Okay, St. Simons; however, all of the elements will be in place by then. It will just be a matter of timing. Most likely just an Invest, in which case, you will be wearing MY teeshirt so I will have to buy two.
1028. BtnTx
If your air conditioner makes ice chunks, that means it needs fixing as something is wrong with the system. Generally means low air flow from dirty filter or dirty evaporator coil. In times of lower temps it can indicate low refrigerant level. I used to do service A/C for a living.
Chicklit:

The season may be much wetter than '04 in Florida, but in Texas we are having a serious drought. We haven't had the usual S.E.Texas rainy season this year.

Strange weather pattern so far this season. Hasn't the jet stream been a little further North this year than normal, setting in upper Midwest? Then when the jet stream dips South, it comes down dramatically, all the way into the Northern Gulf.

ChickLit and SSIG...I like y'alls style ; )
Tropical Depression "GORIO" has maintained its strength as it moves farther away from the country.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
========================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Gorio (05W) located at 18.7ºN 119.5ºE or 110 kms northwest of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 knots).

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Ilocos Sur
2.Ilocos Norte

Additional Information
=======================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere now lowered.

TD "GORIO" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over the western section of Luzon and Western Visayas.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Hi Texas,
I hate to say this, but Nature has a way of evening itself out. It always reminds me of the old fable about being careful what you wish for...you pray for rain and get a deluge.
I really have no idea what will happen this season. But with the intense warming and deep SSTs, one cannot help but think we're in for some virulent storms this season. And all the talk about El Nino. They've just finally decided we're having one. That is not a strong El Nino, at least not yet. So just get prepared. Make sure you get friendly with your neighbors and make them aware. That's all we can do now except watch and wait.
Had a REAL nasty severe thunderstorm roll across southeastern Palm Beach county earlier this evening around 6:30 PM.

I was in class @ Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton when the storm rolled in; power was knocked out and wind gust had to be in the 60-70 mph range.

There were numerous small trees, large branches, and heavy palm frawns littering the roads and parking lots thereafter. I saw a few trees split in half as if they had been struck by lightning.

By far the strongest thunderstorm my area has seen this summer!
Hi PressLord, Thanks! Any chance we can get StormJunkie to autograph it?!
Even though the odds are in my favor, they are not in my favor enough ;) Sorry no bet.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Even though the odds are in my favor, they are not in my favor enough ;) Sorry no bet.
Too funny!
Absolutely!!!!!!!!! Consider it done!!! I'll throw in an autographed picture of me in the dress if it'll help...
If I remember correctly, the year Tropical Storm Allison dropped 23-inches of rain on Houston in 2-days... we were having an abnormally dry Spring and early Summer. Then nature made up for it all at once.

The year of the great Mid-West Flood, I think in July 1993, the Spring & Summer in Kansas was exceptionally dry. Hardly any rain, crops were drying out... then about July 7th, here comes the rain.

Hopefully your words don't come true about Texas this year. We could use some slow, gradual rain, not bucketloads all at once.
This is what you got smacked with DeerfieldBeachGuy:
Link

Will be interesting to say what they say about it in the a.m.
Quoting presslord:
Absolutely!!!!!!!!! Consider it done!!! I'll throw in an autographed picture of me in the dress if it'll help...



LOL
1043. Madokie
evening all, greetings from the hot as heck midwest!!
Quoting presslord:
Absolutely!!!!!!!!! Consider it done!!! I'll throw in an autographed picture of me in the dress if it'll help...


LOL... I still have the link from last year... hahahahha Link

How ya doin' Taz?
504...careful there...ya might scare any children who happen to be on the blog...
Quoting presslord:
How ya doin' Taz?



doing well
oh cars i put on a dress if you all like
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


LOL... I still have the link from last year... hahahahha Link

OMG... No one questions your dedication to 'The Cause' Paul. But shave those legs!!!
Greetings, Madokie. Is tornado season now finally over for y'all out there?
OMG, that pic is *almost* enough to scare me straight!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
OMG, that pic is *almost* enough to scare me straight!

Awww...Sweet!
Thanks for the levity. Goodnight!
Taz!!!! You're on!!!! I think that's worth $10,000!!!!!!!! Taz in a dress for $10,000 in Portlight contributions!!!!!!!!!!!!
1054. Madokie
Quoting Chicklit:
Greetings, Madokie. Is tornado season now finally over for y'all out there?


Yes it is, We had a mild one actually stayed north towards Kansas this year.
Quoting presslord:
504...careful there...ya might scare any children who happen to be on the blog...


lol... Its too funny...
Quoting presslord:
Taz!!!! You're on!!!! I think that's worth $10,000!!!!!!!! Taz in a dress for $10,000 in Portlight contributions!!!!!!!!!!!!



LOL
1058. Madokie
alright yall im headed to bed have a great night!
Y'all get to decide...

Would you rather see Taz in a dress...or me in a bikini?
I just stepped outside (trying to figure out if the crickets/cicadas are outside or inside), and I noticed it was rather toasty still. So I came in to check and see how hot it was, and this greeted me...

(reminder, its 11:25PM here)

Grogan's Mill, The Woodlands, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
Clear
85.0 °F
Clear
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
Pressure: 29.99 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 96 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0.0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 139 ft
Quoting presslord:
Y'all get to decide...

Would you rather see Taz in a dress...or me in a bikini?

I don't think there is enough eye bleach in the world for the latter.
...and when I say bikini, I'm talkin' thong...
1063. Seastep
Quoting Tazmanian:



LOL


LOL... you said it.

And I think press is of the same mind as me in thinking you're a man of your word. LOL.

OK.... ROFLMAO... start shopping.

NO BIKINI!
Quoting presslord:
...and when I say bikini, I'm talkin' thong...


omg... lol
1065. Ossqss
Quoting presslord:
Taz!!!! You're on!!!! I think that's worth $10,000!!!!!!!! Taz in a dress for $10,000 in Portlight contributions!!!!!!!!!!!!


Press, are you sure this is a good idea? I am sceeerrrrd !

G-string it is then....Taz, it's all on you, pal...
1068. Ossqss
Quoting Drakoen:


Thong is for amateurs. G-string is where it's at.


Google a C - String and think of Press and feel the fear ! Yikes, L8R
Quoting atmoaggie:
Penguin:
Incapable? Of course not. But just because storms in those years ulimately made landfall or were stumbled upon by a ship doesn't mean all were measured.

Go look at the full paper at the link I posted. He shows the obs for an average day in 1907, shows how the percent of TCs making landfall has dropped as remote sensing has improved and coastal populations have grown. And more. Really shows the effect of improved observations and the likelyhood that we missed many.

And, do you propose that it is impossible that a season like 2005 couldn't occur every 70 years or so? All of the factors that made that one what it was surely have happened before and will again...hopefully not anytime soon.


Simple question. All things being equal, i.e. wind shear, dust, etc. Will the probability of tropical activity increase or decrease as a direct relationship to ocean temperatures?

The main point being, there are some people expending a lot of energy to prove that increased energy (aka heat) in the tropical oceans will have no effect on tropical activity.

The net result may end up that activity maintains "normal" levels because wind shear or dust levels may increase, or some other cyclonic genesis factor may change, but to continute to say AGW can't effect storm activity defies logic.
1070. Seastep
Chicklit - I'm in, thought you were talking UNTIL the next full moon (not biting on that one). Conditions:

1. No exact... that day is good.

2. Signed dresslord photo mailed to ossqss.

Quote me and it's done.
here is why the back E been haveing a cool summer so far


Link
1072. Drakoen
Quoting Ossqss:


Google a C - String and think of Press and feel the fear ! Yikes, L8R


LOL!
Quoting Patrap:
Edwin "Buzz" Aldrin



I met him when I was 13 or 14 years old(31 now),He was a extemely nice person and I'm glad I got to meet him,I still have a autographed picture I got when I met him!!!!
05W
Got circulation? Check.
1076. Ossqss
Quoting Seastep:
Chicklit - I'm in, thought you were talking UNTIL the next full moon (not biting on that one). Conditions:

1. No exact... that day is good.

2. Signed dresslord photo mailed to ossqss.

Quote me and it's done.


I am going to have nightmares now for 3 days. Nooooooooooooo!

I knew I should have kept my fingers silent.

1077. Seastep
Here's the deal. MIL supposed to be here for one day and it is now day 4 (just recalced... only 3... but tomorrow will be four).

Any ideas?

No offense to the women. Ever noticed that there is never a female troll?
1078. Drakoen
Quoting Seastep:
Here's the deal. MIL supposed to be here for one day and it is now day 4 (just recalced... only 3... but tomorrow will be four).

Any ideas?

No offense to the women. Ever noticed that there is never a female troll?


May you haven't been here long enough.
I'll be delighted to share the "booty" with Oss...
1080. Seastep
Quoting Drakoen:


May you haven't been here long enough.


Really? I have trouble believing that.
Seastep...some of the worst are she types...
1082. Seastep
Quoting presslord:
I'll be delighted to share the "booty" with Oss...


LMAO. Taz is awfully silent. ;)
1083. Seastep
Quoting Tazmanian:
here is why the back E been haveing a cool summer so far


Link


Hmmm... subject change. I am just ROFLMAO.
1084. Seastep
Apologies to the ladies... I just assumed.
No way my man Taz wants to see me in a G-string....he'll do the right thing....
1086. Drakoen
Quoting presslord:
No way my man Taz wants to see me in a G-string....he'll do the right thing....


It is necessitous!
Quoting Drakoen:


It is necessitous!


lol Excellent!
1088. Drakoen
GFS 00z really showing something in the EATL before the resolution goes out.
Wow.. this blog went...
whats the word? Nuts?
1090. Seastep
Time for bed, but if anyone sees chicklit, I'm serious, and I'll even up it to five to one. Five t-shirts if any depression or higher exists on that day.

Goodnight.
1091. Seastep
Quoting Seastep:
Time for bed, but if anyone sees chicklit, I'm serious, and I'll even up it to five to one. Five t-shirts if any depression or higher exists on that day.

Goodnight.


Sorry... just for clarity... Atlantic.
what is this????swirly thingy???
Quoting stillwaiting:
what is this????swirly thingy???
I don't know time to investagate
TCFA for 95E. Its only moving at 6 knots so its got time.

Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 00z really showing something in the EATL before the resolution goes out.



What are the possibilities of this becoming something? are any of the models predicting this to become something?
GFS has been showing a cape verde wave developing for the past 8 runs at least... you can see it over africa right now! I'll have a blog post on that, and other goings-on in the atlantic up in less than 30 minutes. If you're interested, bookmark this page.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/winter123/show.html
95E
src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/rb-l.jpg" alt="" />
Blog update on tropical activity worldwide. You may call me crazy, but watch the Cape Verdes about 5 days out! And on that note, I'm off. Night all.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/winter123/show.html
1016. Baha.."thought the Doc did a pretty good job showing the difference between these two different forms of el nino. But looking at that map of SSTs posted earlier"

I thought that was an artistically rendered new age painting? I thought we had another Picasso on our hands. LOL

BTW, I think my state is the big patchy thing with the words HOT written over it and an arrow saying "send tropical rain here!" :)
Quoting winter123:
Blog update on tropical activity worldwide. You may call me crazy, but watch the Cape Verdes about 5 days out! And on that note, I'm off. Night all.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/winter123/show.html


I left a comment on your blog.
1101. Brallan
Tropical Depression FOUR-E has formed
Every night this blog goes downhill. This is turning from an educated highly respected blog to a gutter mouth convention. And this is occuring when children are home on vacations.
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND IS BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC FROM
TAFB AND SAB WERE T1.5 AND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY...ALTHOUGH DATA-T
NUMBERS AT THE TIME WERE 2.0 AND 2.5. RECENTLY...A CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A
PROMINENT CONVECTIVE BAND HAS FORMED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE CONVECTION
HAVE BECOME WELL-DEFINED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE HIGHER END OF THE
ESTIMATES...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AS A
25-KT DEPRESSION.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT AN INITIAL MOTION OF 275/7. THE SUITE
OF GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS FAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTERING THROUGH THE ENTIRE
5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD AND INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT
MAKE MUCH OF A NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DUE TO THE REMNANTS
OF BLANCA AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST...BUT THE
MODELS QUICKLY RE-BUILD THE RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND
MOVE AT A CONSISTENT 11 OR 12 KNOTS IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND SHADES CLOSER TO THE TRACKS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.

OCEAN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION ARE
AROUND 28-29C AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS MUCH TO LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS WITH QUICKER
INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THE GFDL PRODUCES THE MOST
STRENGTHENING AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 90 KT WITHIN 5 DAYS
WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS LEVEL OFF THE INTENSITY AROUND 70
KT FROM 84-120 HOURS. SINCE IT IS NOT APPARENT WHAT WOULD LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 10.0N 111.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 10.2N 112.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 10.4N 114.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 10.6N 117.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 11.0N 119.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 12.0N 124.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 13.0N 129.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 13.5N 134.5W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NNNN

National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP042009
9:00 AM UTC July 10 2009
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression EP042009 (1007 hPa) located at 10.0N 111.5W or 785 NM south of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 10.4N 114.8W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "GORIO" continues to move farther away from the country.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5 - Final
====================================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Gorio (05W) located at 18.6ºN 118.1ºE or 230 kms west of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 knots).

Additional Information
=======================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere now lowered.

However, the Western sections of Luzon and Visayas will experience occasional rains associated with the Southwest Monsoon enhance by Tropical Depression "GORIO".

With this development this is the final bulletin on this tropical disturbance.

---
heh lasted one day in the PAR =}
** WTTH20 VTBB 100600 ***
TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY
NAME TD
PSTN 100600 UTC 19.5 N 119.5 E
MOVE WNW 10 KTS
PRES 1000 HPA
MAXD 30 KT
FORECAST
24 HR 110600 UTC 20.0 N 116.8 E
MOVE WNW 08 KTS
PRES 996 HPA
MAXD 40 KT
48 HR 120600 UTC 21.0 N 111.0 E
MOVE NW 06 KTS
PRES 998 HPA
MAXD 35 KT

--
Whose weather code is this? Is it Thailand Meteorological Department?
where is everyone.. there is no rest here

(just kidding)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
** WTTH20 VTBB 100600 ***
TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY
NAME TD
PSTN 100600 UTC 19.5 N 119.5 E
MOVE WNW 10 KTS
PRES 1000 HPA
MAXD 30 KT
FORECAST
24 HR 110600 UTC 20.0 N 116.8 E
MOVE WNW 08 KTS
PRES 996 HPA
MAXD 40 KT
48 HR 120600 UTC 21.0 N 111.0 E
MOVE NW 06 KTS
PRES 998 HPA
MAXD 35 KT

--
Whose weather code is this? Is it Thailand Meteorological Department?


Yea

Macao, China
For domestic dissemination only and WTMU40 VMMC
Malaysia
For domestic dissemination only
Philippines
WTPH20 RPMM, WTPH21 RPMM
Republic of Korea
WTKO20 RKSL
Singapore
WTSR20 WSSS
Thailand
WTTH20 VTBB
USA
WTPQ31 - 35 PGUM
Viet Nam
WTVS20 VNN
I will probably get a 24hr ban for that now.

later everyone =)
Quoting Weather456:
Every night this blog goes downhill. This is turning from an educated highly respected blog to a gutter mouth convention. And this is occuring when children are home on vacations.
Dear Sir:
I have a question for you since I believe you are very knowledgeable on weather phenom..?I live in South Texas.We are running 10 inches below normal on precip.So bad, the farmers crops did not germinate this year.Any case ,my question is ?we are running around 5-10 degrees normal on our daily highs.Normal 92 degrees .We are averaging 97-102 degrees.Is their a correlation with no ground moisture and the ground being so dry to our daily highs above normal????I dont know the phsyics but it seems the moist ground absorbs more heat more the dry ground???Or is this poppycock?
oh so it is.. hmm don't normally see Thailand in the list of advisories at the unisys website page.
Quoting victoria780:
Dear Sir:
I have a question for you since I believe you are very knowledgeable on weather phenom..?I live in South Texas.We are running 10 inches below normal on precip.So bad, the farmers crops did not germinate this year.Any case ,my question is ?we are running around 5-10 degrees normal on our daily highs.Normal 92 degrees .We are averaging 97-102 degrees.Is their a correlation with no ground moisture and the ground being so dry to our daily highs above normal????I dont know the phsyics but it seems the moist ground absorbs more heat more the dry ground???Or is this poppycock?


Soil moisture do affect air temperature

Moist soil, increases evaporation into the atmopshere and since evaporation is a cooling mechanism (evaporational cooling) cools the air directly aboves it.

Ifmoist soil adds too much moisture to the air can leave you leaving hot and sticky due to increase levels of humidity.


If the soil remains dry for too long then most likely the air above it will remain dry also and hot since there is no evaporation and thus no cooling effect.

morning
A tranquil tropics once again this morning. there are no threat areas tom talk about this morning and the models are not forecasting tropical development th next 5 days. however interest is focused on the the GFS continuing to latch ono a strong tropical wave which is at 5 deg W over Africa and is carrying with it a low of 1005 MB. the GFS continues to suggest that this wave will form into a cyclone during the middle part of next week. we all know of the inconsistencies of that Model in initialising early disturbances. after all some credence should be given to it ,for in 2007 it did very well with hurricane Dean, but that was in the month of August. we will just have to wait and see if there is persistency and the other models jump on board.
wave over africa



Link
Quoting Weather456:


Soil moisture do affect air temperature

Moist soil, increases evaporation into the atmopshere and since evaporation is a cooling mechanism (evaporational cooling) cools the air directly aboves it.

Ifmoist soil adds too much moisture to the air can leave you leaving hot and sticky due to increase levels of humidity.


If the soil remains dry for too long then most likely the air above it will remain dry also and hot since there is no evaporation and thus no cooling effect.

Ok,since we are in a exceptional drought,aka ..lack of rain..Could these future drought forcasts be used in determining future weather forcasts?Or to say expect daytime highs to above normal for the next 90-days????
1116. WxLogic
Morning...
What happened on the blog last night? I have seen the rest this week...
1119. IKE
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
What happened on the blog last night? I have seen the rest this week...


Just folks BS-ing around. There's nothing going on in the Atlantic anyway.
WOW is this 96E in the makeing???


1121. IKE
Long-term discussion from Tallahassee,FL....

"LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AFTER ANOTHER GENERALLY HOT AND
DRY ON MONDAY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TAKEN
THE THE LEAD FROM THE ECMWF AND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOWS YET
ANOTHER DEEP TROF TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SE U.S. KEPT
AFTERNOON POPS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE AT 40 PERCENT DURING MOST OF THE
UPCOMING DAYS...BUT IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION
...AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...WILL MOST LIKELY
NEED TO RAISE THESE DURING FUTURE SHIFTS.".....


Troughs in the east, part ?
light rain this morning 78 been cooler than normal but been really sticky e centr. florida last wk in july things in the tropics should pick up
1123. IKE
The 00Z ECMWF has dropped a GOM low on the end of it's run.

The GFS still advertises a tropical system spinning up in the eastern Atlantic in the 7-10 day period. Don't see much model support. Think I'll discount the GFS.

Looks like another 7 days of zilch in the Atlantic.

40 days down
143 to go and it's over.
Quoting IKE:
The 00Z ECMWF has dropped a GOM low on the end of it's run.

The GFS still advertises a tropical system spinning up in the eastern Atlantic in the 7-10 day period. Don't see much model support. Think I'll discount the GFS.

Looks like another 7 days of zilch in the Atlantic.

40 days down
143 to go and it's over.


That low stays over land instead of moving into the gulf on the ECMWF 00Z. ECMWF does have the system off of Africa survive across the Atlantic now, with a low east of the islands at the end of the run. So GFS does have some support, but as we know models out that far will change, and probably quite a bit.
1125. IKE
I don't see much east of the islands on the end of the 00Z ECMWF...


Discussion from NO,LA talks about troughs in the east next week...

".DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700
MB. WITH A MODERATE CAP IN PLACE...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION UNTIL THE RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TOWARD THE WEST. A LACK OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. LUCKILY...WE/RE NOT EXPECTING TO EXPERIENCE ANOTHER
RECORD HEAT WAVE LIKE WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED IN JUNE. EXPECT TEMPS
TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S WITH INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING
THE UPPER 90S SOME DAYS.

THE RIDGE WON/T HAVE QUITE AS STRONG A HOLD ON THE AREA AS IT DID
LAST MONTH...SO DAYTIME HEATING IN SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO MUSTER UP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE AN
EASIER FEAT ALONG THE COAST...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. FOR INLAND AREAS...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS IT
DOES SO...IT WILL FORCE A FRONT TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY...A SECOND MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE EAST COAST AND RAPIDLY DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO NUDGE THE
RIDGE WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN PUTTING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALLOWING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF DIURNALLY
FORCED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL CARRY POPS IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED UP ONCE
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAT WE WILL SEE THE SAME KIND OF COVERAGE
AS WAS SEEN EARLIER THIS WEEK."

1126. IKE
Interesting how a pattern develops in the SE USA and reestablishes itself over again....

Those that have been saying development in the tropics may be closer to home in 2009 may be correct with this pattern.
since there is no tropical activity, here's something I always wondered and can't find an answer to:

I always hear t.v. meteorologists showing the radar and talking about 'rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour', etc.

My question is, how hard can it possibly rain? Are there any records kept for the most rainfall in a one hour period?
We're almost ready to reveal our little secret! :)



All I can say is thank goodness the Atlantic remains quiet. We needed the prep time! :)
Agree there's not much, but something is there.
1131. IKE
Quoting BobinTampa:
since there is no tropical activity, here's something I always wondered and can't find an answer to:

I always hear t.v. meteorologists showing the radar and talking about 'rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour', etc.

My question is, how hard can it possibly rain? Are there any records kept for the most rainfall in a one hour period?


I had 5-8 inches of rain last Monday within a 3-4 hour period....I have never seen it rain that hard, that long....I don't see that much rain with a land falling tropical storm.

Sorry that doesn't answer your question.


Four years ago today this bad boy was making it's way to the coast..........

1132. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Agree there's not much, but something is there.


Agree...just not much.

No matter what happens today, I'll stay in a great mood. Four years ago today I was going into kidney failure and on dialysis for 1 1/2 years. I have never been as sick as I was that day.

Too any and all men out there....when you get in your 40's, get your prostate checked. An enlarged prostate can damage your kidneys....trust me.........I procrastinated and paid for it.

****sorry to be off-topic....back to the weather....****
well TD 4E will soon be are next storm and we may soon see 96E/ TD 5E in the makeing



Quoting IKE:


Four years ago today this bad boy was making it's way to the coast...






Dennis was awsome! The night before, my brother and I stayed up drinking a bottle of Johnny Walker Blue Label ($200 a bottle back then). The next morning, I was one hung-over dude. Right before we lost the TV, we saw that Dennis was going to landfall way to our east by Navarre. So I decided to take a nap, thinking the hurricane would hook to the east once it made landfall.

Uh-uh...no it did not.

Doug woke me up at 3:00 PM and asked me if I wanted to see the hurricane.

"Wha?"

"Yeah, man...the 'cane is raging right now in the front yard!"

The rest is YouTube History! :)



CycloneOz---
1135. IKE
Four years ago today Emily formed and turned into a buzz saw.....



Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI

AOI
Quoting Weather456:
Every night this blog goes downhill. This is turning from an educated highly respected blog to a gutter mouth convention. And this is occuring when children are home on vacations.


Yes, this is one reason I don't check in too much anymore. I know several other "regulars" that email me and say the same thing.
1138. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


Yes, this is one reason I don't check in too much anymore. I know several other "regulars" that email me and say the same thing.


It'll change when something gets going...
if you magnify ths sat image of 25 65w notice a small intensifying system if it is around tomorrow things could get more interesting
http://www.kennett-square.pa.us/codes/_DATA/TITLE24/APPENDICES/APPENDIX_NO__5_RAINFALL_INTENS.html


This might answer my question Ike....i think.
1141. Ossqss
New Blog
New Blog
Before Doug and I hit that bottle of blue label, we both stood outside on his deck and listened to the night.

It was about 1:00 AM on 7/10/2005, and no one was on the roads, and the airport was shut down...but there was a distant roar that could be distinctly heard.

"That sounds like a sortie of airplanes taking off from the airport," Doug commented.

"Doug," I replied. "That sound is coming from the hurricane." ...(which was still a couple of hundred miles off shore.

How were we able to hear a hurricane that far away? I can only guess that the roar of this powerful system bounced off the atmosphere to our position in Cantonment, FL.

After listening to the roar for many minutes, that's when Doug suggested we open that bottle of scotch.

We feared the worse would soon be upon us.