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Moderate-strength Nor'easter may hit Sandy-devastated areas Wednesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:16 PM GMT on November 02, 2012

Storm-weary U.S. residents pounded by Superstorm Sandy may have a new storm to contend with next Wednesday: an early-season Nor'easter is expected to impact the mid-Atlantic and New England with strong winds and heavy rain. Our two top models, the European (ECMWF) and GFS (run by the National Weather Service), both predict that an area of low pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada. The storm is predicted to intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure of 992 mb by Wednesday afternoon, when it will be centered a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY. The European model, which did an exemplary job forecasting Hurricane Sandy, predicts a stronger storm that will stay just offshore and bring a 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York on Wednesday morning and afternoon. The GFS model and 06Z NOGAPS model runs from 06Z (2 am EDT) this morning have a weaker storm that is farther offshore, with the main impact of the Nor'easter occurring Wednesday evening in coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine. The Nor'easter will likely bring a swath of 2 - 4" of rain to the coast, and the potential for more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of the New England. The storm is still five days away, and five-day forecasts of the path and intensity of Nor'easters usually have large errors. Nevertheless, residents and relief workers in the region hit by Sandy should anticipate the possibility of the arrival on Wednesday of a moderate-strength Nor'easter with heavy rain, accompanied by high winds capable of driving a 1 - 2 foot storm surge with battering waves.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday morning, November 7, 2012, from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the ECMWF model made on November 2, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (40 - 45 mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Maryland to the east tip of Long Island, NY.


Figure 2. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy. The GFS model performed the best for 1 - 3 day forecasts, but the European (ECMWF) model far out-performed all models at longer-range 4 - 5 day forecasts. This may be due to the fact the model was able to successfully predict the timing of the arrival of a trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that acted to steer Sandy to the north and then northwest. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 3. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy, for their runs that began at 00Z October 25, 2012. The GFDL and ECMWF models made great forecasts that correctly showed Sandy making landfall in Southern New Jersey in five days. The GFS and HWRF models made good 1 - 3 day forecasts, but failed to anticipate Sandy's northward turn towards the U.S. coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Links
Impressive loop of 1-minute visible satellite imagery spanning 6 days of Sandy's life.

A one-day time lapse video from a New York City webcam showing Sandy's impact on the city. It's eerie to see the city suddenly plunged into darkness.

First round of damage assessment aerial imagery collected by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey on Oct. 31 along the New Jersey coast.


Figure 4. Flooding in Haiti from Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: The Lambi Fund of Haiti.

Charities mobilize for Sandy
Sandy's death toll of 98 in the U.S. makes the storm one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes to affect the U.S.. The outpouring of charitable donations in the wake of the terrible storm has been great to see. NBC is hosting a benefit concert at 8 pm tonight (Friday), and the main owners of The Weather Channel have agreed to match donations of up to $1 million to the American Red Cross, with all donations to benefit people in the hard-hit areas of the U.S. To have your donation matched, please visit www.redcross.org/sandy, or text SANDY to 90999. I also recommend my favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org. They are focusing their response efforts exclusively on the post-Sandy needs of people with disabilities.Check out the Portlight blog to see what they're up to.

Sandy's greatest devastation occurred in Haiti, where rains of up to 20 inches in 24 hours unleashed rampaging flood waters that killed at least 54, left 200,000 homeless, wiped out thousand of acres of crops, and killed massive numbers of livestock. For impoverished families in Haiti still struggling to recover from the earthquake in 2010 and Hurricane Isaac in August, Sandy was devastating. These crops are the very essence of rural Haitian’s livelihoods, and there are fears widespread starvation will result. A disaster relief charity in Haiti that I've contributed to for many years, The Lambi Fund of Haiti, is seeking donations to help farmers purchase local seeds so that they can replant their crops in the wake of this latest terrible Haitian catastrophe.

I'll have an update this weekend on the coming Nor'easter.

Jeff Masters
Floods due to Sandy
Floods due to Sandy
The waters of Sagua la Grande river crossing the National highway in Ranchuelo, Cuba
Tree damage in Tucker County, W.V.
Tree damage in Tucker County, W.V.
Thousands of trees were damaged in West Virginia by the heavy/wet snow. Many were without power for days.
Remnants of Sandy
Remnants of Sandy
These are a few of the incredible clouds associated with Hurricane Sandy. I am blessed because I didn't have any damage. Thank you God. Sending all my thoughts and prayers to NY and NJ where the devastation will take years to recover from.

Hurricane Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments




Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.7 m Day/Night Band images (pre-Sandy, and post-Sandy)

As seen in other examples posted on this blog, the Suomi NPP VIIRS 0.7 m Day/Night Band (DNB) is useful for detecting city lights at night. A comparison of "pre-Sandy" (a cloud-free night way back on 31 August 2012) and "post-Sandy" (01 November 2012) DNB images displayed using McIDAS-V (above) showed some of the areas that remained without power in the wake of the landfall of Hurricane Sandy on 29 October 2012 - two areas that stand out are western parts of Long Island, New York and central New Jersey. You can also interactively fade between the before/after DNB images using this Java applet.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/dat e/2012/11
Quoting trunkmonkey:


My friends working in Long Island say, underground sub-stations were still flooded, have to pump out the water, then dry out the lines which could take days or weeks depending on the resources.
I feel so bad for my fellow Americans on the east coast.
yes Im afraid this happened at a very bad time, freezing temps, damp and no heat or running clean water etc, this is very bad for those folks up there
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND ERC VALUES 35 OR HIGHER FOR THE COUNTIES OF LEE AND
SARASOTA...

.A DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. A COMBINATION OF LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT
VALUES OVER 35 ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FOR LEE AND INLAND SARASOTA COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ENOUGH BY SUNDAY TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
still no sign of that coming nor'easter storm the models are predicting.................................
SANDY'S AFTERMATH: LIVE UPDATES HERE - Power back in most of Manhattan by Saturday, but outer boroughs are being left in the dark - and plunging into chaos

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news#ixzz2BANy29zm
Folks in the coastal Carolina's may want to be watching your local warnings in about 84 hours....GFS at 87 hours
GEFS model spread in 90 hours...............
Quoting KoritheMan:
Atlantic TWO out already...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030523
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Slow day at the office?
Hopefully slow till next season,, even though sometimes mother natures is able to "hide' little surprises...
Good morning everyone, I have a great weather start to a four day weekend. Rosa is not in good shape at all. There is very little convection near the center due to high wind shear. This should be one of Rosa's last days.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Ask any statistician and I'm sure they would agree with me. Same with Ike: for all intents and purposes, it was a Category 3 hurricane; the radar and satellite presentation definitely supported it. Officially, however, the storm went down in the record books as a Category 2.

Again, I get what you're saying, but facts are facts, and statistics are amongst facts.


Personally, I would say that the Heart goes out of Science the instant that the scientist values his figures and theories more than the reality that they are meant to model.

Quoting LargoFl:
still no sign of that coming nor'easter storm the models are predicting.................................

It's coming. The models actually show the energy for this eventual nor'easter at 500 mb breaking off from the low that is currently in the Gulf of Alaska.

Link
Quoting 1900hurricane:

It's coming. The models actually show the energy for this eventual nor'easter at 500 mb breaking off from the low that is currently in the Gulf of Alaska.

Link

1900 ~ Perhaps you would be able to answer this for me. Would it be worse for the ravaged areas if this low moved up the coast and hugged the coast within 100 miles of it? Or would the bigger effects be felt by this storm is it remained further off the coast...more like 200 miles or so. Because wouldn't a low being further off the coast be more likely to drag in colder air and maybe increased chances of snowfall, even thought the winds and precipitation might be lower??
Quoting 1900hurricane:

It's coming. The models actually show the energy for this eventual nor'easter at 500 mb breaking off from the low that is currently in the Gulf of Alaska.

Link

Good morning. Unfortunately it looks like a fairly bad Nor'Easter coming up for areas hit by Sandy. It certainly won't be anything close to as bad as Sandy, but it looks like a stronger than average East Coast storm.

GFS:



Euro:

ECMWF 126 HOURS

Oh lordy, not again. All of the models show a nor'easter with sub 980mb pressure approaching New York City. Fortunately, it will be no where near as intense as Hurricane Sandy was, but it does nothing but exacerbate the situation.

In other news, the cost from Hurricane Sandy appears to be climbing further, over 50 billion. That makes Sandy the 2nd most destructive hurricane to hit the United States by a substantial margin over Hurricanes Ike and Andrew. The death toll in the United States is up to 109.
The FIM winds in kts.


I would guess that the next storm will be a major concern for folks hit by Sandy..
Quoting Grothar:
ECMWF 126 HOURS

and think about this, most without power are the area's where the lines are above ground..now any that are fixed..might come DOWN again in this next storm..geez
Quoting 1900hurricane:

It's coming. The models actually show the energy for this eventual nor'easter at 500 mb breaking off from the low that is currently in the Gulf of Alaska.

Link
gee those poor people up there
Read the story about the Staten Island mother whose house had rising water and she tried to escape with her two young boys and they were pulled from her arms. After searching frantically, she sheltered on the porch of an empty house all through Sandy. The mother in me cries for her, but also wonders why the hell she hadn't left.
Quoting Grothar:
The FIM winds in kts.


Mornin ancient one. Seems the people hit by Sandy will have to deal with a storm while trying to recover.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Oh lordy, not again. All of the models show a nor'easter with sub 980mb pressure approaching New York City. Fortunately, it will be no where near as intense as Hurricane Sandy was, but it does nothing but exacerbate the situation.

In other news, the cost from Hurricane Sandy appears to be climbing further, over 50 billion. That makes Sandy the 2nd most destructive hurricane to hit the United States by a substantial margin over Hurricanes Ike and Andrew. The death toll in the United States is up to 109.
I swear every time there is a meteorological record I believe will stay on the books for a week gets broken or smashed..
:0
ATTENTION-IMPORTANT MESSAGE FOR ALL HIT BY SANDY......THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE CENTERS
FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION (CDC):

IN THE WAKE OF SANDY...IT IS IMPORTANT FOR CITIZENS TO REMEMBER
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND HEALTH AND THAT
OF YOUR FAMILY:

* DRINK CLEAN...SAFE WATER AND EAT SAFE...UNCONTAMINATED FOOD

* KEEP GENERATORS OUTSIDE AT LEAST 25 FT FROM DOORS...WINDOWS AND
VENTS

* DO NOT GRILL INSIDE YOUR HOME...THE FUMES CAN KILL

* NEVER TOUCH A DOWNED POWER LINE OR ANYTHING TOUCHING ONE

* USE 1 CUP OF BLEACH FOR EACH GALLON OF WATER TO REMOVE MOLD

* NEVER MIX BLEACH AND AMMONIA...THE FUMES CAN KILL

* WASHING YOUR HANDS PREVENTS ILLNESS

* SEEK HELP IF HAVING TROUBLE COPING

FOR MORE LIFE SAVING HEALTH RELATED INFORMATION CALL THE CDC AT
800-232-4636...TTY 888-232-6348. HTTP://EMERGENCY.CDC.GOV/DISASTERS/
Quoting hydrus:
Mornin ancient one. Seems the people hit by Sandy will have to deal with a storm while trying to recover.


I've already been making my calls up there. I am afraid that if the Jet stream stays in this pattern, there may be more.
Quoting Grothar:


I've already been making my calls up there. I am afraid that if the Jet stream stays in this pattern, there may be more.
MORNING GUYS, Just called my aunt in CONN and told her what might be coming again..all i heard was groans and a oh no..folks up in the northeast just cant get over what hit them and more coming just adds to the misery
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1031 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

NYZ072-032015-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
1031 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE
OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. BREEZY WITH LOWS AROUND 40. CHANCE
OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

$$
Quoting Grothar:


I've already been making my calls up there. I am afraid that if the Jet stream stays in this pattern, there may be more.
I agree. Storms will probably increase in size and intensity due to the seasonal shift.
979 LOW about 60 miles off Jersey Coast will be very damaging. If this pans out I expect 50mph winds with 60mph gusts. Considering all the dunes are gone flooding will occur again. Power outages are likely.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

It's coming. The models actually show the energy for this eventual nor'easter at 500 mb breaking off from the low that is currently in the Gulf of Alaska.

Link
I see your 500mb ECMWF and raise you a 06GFS Sea level pressure. And this is non-tropical along the east coast?

Java animation from FSU. Click FWD button to activate.
Coastal Flooding A Major Concern With Next Storm

But, because of the destruction and erosion to the New Jersey coast that occurred, AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno is concerned this could be a moderate to severe coastal flooding event.

The concern comes because of the fact that the protective dunes along the coast were basically wiped out from Atlantic City, N.J. on northward. This in turn, allows for any water rise to have free reign to flow into coastal communities with no barriers.


Yesterday Models called for a 990 or 992 Low. Today we are down the the 980 range. I hope the trend does not continue otherwise they will end up with a 965 low that will cause huge problems
Quoting thewindman:
Yesterday Models called for a 990 or 992 Low. Today we are down the the 980 range. I hope the trend does not continue otherwise they will end up with a 965 low that will cause huge problems

985 is already significant. Very significant. I'm just trying to put my finger around the track now, as it appears more than likely a sub 985MB or even sub 980 MB will move up along the ravaged coastline. I guess one thing to remember with these things are this one is projected to be more of a typical Nor-Easter, so the wind field will not be as concentrated around the center, and very well might extend several hundred miles out. That worries me.

12Z GFS is running now, and we'll see what it'll say in about an half an hour...
This is an old run, but worth showing.
Been looking through video clips, this just broke my heart....

Link

Death toll has now risen to 109..
from our NWS, Wilmington, NC-they going with the Euro along with the HPC

HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD HELPS CREATE CONDITIONS
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG FRONT STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUE INTO WED.
HOWEVER DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COMPLICATES TIMING
AND RAINFALL/WIND POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLOWER...SHOWING
A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A DEEPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. 00Z GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DELAYS SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF
THE LOW UNTIL IT IS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/NJ COAST. PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND HPC RELIED ON THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS APPEAR TO BE SPLIT BETWEEN
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL COME TOGETHER PERFECTLY AS FAR AS STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS CONCERNED. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A DECENT
TEMP GRADIENT WITH THE GULF STREAM ADDING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WHILE
ENHANCING TEMP CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. ALOFT STRONG MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE END RESULT IS A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE
LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LATER WED AND WED NIGHT THE NOR EASTER WILL BE
MOVING NORTH...REPLACED BY DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVE OVERHEAD.
Brooklyn itself would be the 2nd largest city in the U.S. would not be for the 5 borough compilation that makes up NYC. Can't image that along with Staten Island, parts of Queens, and lower Manhattan. And you have up and down the ENTIRE coast of New Jersey. Man, that encompasses a MASSIVE amount of people per sq miles.
I wish there was a way to help the general public understand just how serious storm surge is, especially along the immediate coastline. I know some people understand and therefore evacuate, but I'm not sure everyone gets the message quite so clearly, just wondering if there is a better way to convey the seriousness of it to the average american...
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Read the story about the Staten Island mother whose house had rising water and she tried to escape with her two young boys and they were pulled from her arms. After searching frantically, she sheltered on the porch of an empty house all through Sandy. The mother in me cries for her, but also wonders why the hell she hadn't left.
I guessed about that in my current wunderground blog titled "I didn't expect this." She and many others on Staten Island possibly did not understand what storm surge flooding can do. If they did they'd have left, and failing that, they'd have been on their roofs, not in basements and, in the tragic situation of this mom, trying to drive away from the rushing water. As you may also have read, several others trapped in basements drowned when the surge flood arrived at Staten Island.
Quoting charlottefl:
I wish there was a way to help the general public understand just how serious storm surge is, especially along the immediate coastline. I know some people understand and therefore evacuate, but I'm not sure everyone gets the message quite so clearly, just wondering if there is a better way to convey the seriousness of it to the average american...
You're so right. There always seems to be a number of folks who don't understand the threat with a storm surge. What the media has repeated for many years is, "Hide from the wind, but run from the water".
Quoting charlottefl:
I wish there was a way to help the general public understand just how serious storm surge is, especially along the immediate coastline. I know some people understand and therefore evacuate, but I'm not sure everyone gets the message quite so clearly, just wondering if there is a better way to convey the seriousness of it to the average american...
There is. It's a great movie script I wrote. Family-oriented and takes ya time traveling to the mother of all storm surge knowledge - the 1900 Great Galveston Storm. Anyone who saw the movie would understand. Trouble is, no one's come along who has the $150 million it would take to make the film. lol
546. 7544
nice blob shaping up down in the caribiean are we on a blob alert yet ?
Quoting 7544:
nice blob shaping up down in the caribiean are we on a blob alert yet ?



no
Here's the latest 12Z GFS forecasted for 7 PM EDT Wednesday evening.

its safe too say hurricane season has come too a closes


The new GFS for the coming Nor'Easter is in. It's noticeably faster getting the storm in position this run, and shows a worst case scenario track with the center passing just east of the NY/NJ coasts, creating a strong onshore wind and heavy rain:



Quoting Barefootontherocks:
I guessed about that in my current wunderground blog titled "I didn't expect this." She and many others on Staten Island possibly did not understand what storm surge flooding can do. If they did they'd have left, and failing that, they'd have been on their roofs, not in basements and, in the tragic situation of this mom, trying to drive away from the rushing water. As you may also have read, several others trapped in basements drowned when the surge flood arrived at Staten Island.


Yeah, it seems like a whole lot of folks didn't really see what was coming at them. And to be honest, I can't really blame them that much -- they hadn't done this before, it's hard to know what's hype and what isn't, and the immediate effects here were worse than even I was expecting (and I'm no optimist with these things, I tend toward the "assume the worst and prepare for that.")

Most people don't go directly to the NHC. Most people glance at the weather on their local news, and that's about it.

Folks should clearly have evacuated, but they didn't. Their mistake doesn't make the situations they're in now any less heartbreaking.

To some degree, I think that a lot of people are so sort of jaded about the "impending doom" stories smacking at them from the sensationalized teevees constantly that they tend to disbelieve all of it. Add that to our general human tendency to really think "it won't happen to me," or "it's never happened before (so it won't!)" and you wind up with some awful if it really _does_ go nasty. We've all got a lot of learning to do, just in realizing that sometimes, it really _is_ that bad.

And honestly, having been through any number of storms up in NE that really _were_ hypetastic (you'd think the world was going to end because it snowed a few inches,) I can understand where some of it comes from. I've also been through some really nasty ones, or some that genuinely _could_ have been nasty but turned out not so bad (glad for the warnings, either way). But it's hard to tell sometimes, when the news tells you daily that we're all going to die from killer bees and hot dogs and cancer and homicides and tainted drugs and cholesterol and...

I mean, some of the things in it may be serious, but it gets so hard to tell which, without doing some digging.

Regardless, damn, do I feel for the people who misjudged and have lost lives or loved ones, and I wish we could get better at collectively learning these sorts of things without having people experience so much terrible suffering first.
Rosa's not giving up. All the thunderstorms she formed yesterday got blown away or dissipated last night, but she's somehow formed a few more over her center. They're already getting pushed away though, there's a ton of shear where she is right now.

'Sons of Anarchy' star: Storm aftermath 'a lot worse than how it's being portrayed by media'Link

I can't believe they're using this tunnel today, they readied a thousands of feet long, 100 feet under the river tunnel in 3 days (3 days ago shown).

The "Nov 3[rd] am" subway map

This is just steps from the Wall Street Bull statue. Nevertheless, this station will not be stopped at.
Quoting charlottefl:
Been looking through video clips, this just broke my heart....

Link

Death toll has now risen to 109..
Horrible...Sick to my stomach.
Quoting charlottefl:
I wish there was a way to help the general public understand just how serious storm surge is, especially along the immediate coastline. I know some people understand and therefore evacuate, but I'm not sure everyone gets the message quite so clearly, just wondering if there is a better way to convey the seriousness of it to the average american...


Time-lapse photography.
Potential for snow to impact the mid-Atlantic and Northeast this upcoming week:



Comparison of GFS and Euro models
Quoting charlottefl:
Been looking through video clips, this just broke my heart....

Link

Death toll has now risen to 109..
those people never knew what was coming..the storms always keep on going, even when told it was coming IN..they never realized just how Terrible it was going to be...sad to say..this is one of life's Lessons and from now on, they will know what is coming and how to react, just like WE all do along the gulf coasts and prepare for a life changing event
Quoting charlottefl:
I wish there was a way to help the general public understand just how serious storm surge is, especially along the immediate coastline. I know some people understand and therefore evacuate, but I'm not sure everyone gets the message quite so clearly, just wondering if there is a better way to convey the seriousness of it to the average american...
no need now..the whole world just witnessed what storm surge can do..picture after picture, night after night..the horrible truth of what storm surge can do......ME myself..in a hurricane i always..until now..watched for the winds..never the water...from now on i sure will
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The new GFS for the coming Nor'Easter is in. It's noticeably faster getting the storm in position this run, and shows a worst case scenario track with the center passing just east of the NY/NJ coasts, creating a strong onshore wind and heavy rain:



according to the models, how does wash dc fare in this new storm?
Quoting TomballTXPride:

985 is already significant. Very significant. I'm just trying to put my finger around the track now, as it appears more than likely a sub 985MB or even sub 980 MB will move up along the ravaged coastline. I guess one thing to remember with these things are this one is projected to be more of a typical Nor-Easter, so the wind field will not be as concentrated around the center, and very well might extend several hundred miles out. That worries me.

12Z GFS is running now, and we'll see what it'll say in about an half an hour...
the one good thing..so far the models do not have it moving INTO NYC..but passing it closely to the east..IF this changes..those people should be warned soonest huh
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Yeah, it seems like a whole lot of folks didn't really see what was coming at them. And to be honest, I can't really blame them that much -- they hadn't done this before, it's hard to know what's hype and what isn't, and the immediate effects here were worse than even I was expecting (and I'm no optimist with these things, I tend toward the "assume the worst and prepare for that.")

Most people don't go directly to the NHC. Most people glance at the weather on their local news, and that's about it.

Folks should clearly have evacuated, but they didn't. Their mistake doesn't make the situations they're in now any less heartbreaking.

To some degree, I think that a lot of people are so sort of jaded about the "impending doom" stories smacking at them from the sensationalized teevees constantly that they tend to disbelieve all of it. Add that to our general human tendency to really think "it won't happen to me," or "it's never happened before (so it won't!)" and you wind up with some awful if it really _does_ go nasty. We've all got a lot of learning to do, just in realizing that sometimes, it really _is_ that bad.

And honestly, having been through any number of storms up in NE that really _were_ hypetastic (you'd think the world was going to end because it snowed a few inches,) I can understand where some of it comes from. I've also been through some really nasty ones, or some that genuinely _could_ have been nasty but turned out not so bad (glad for the warnings, either way). But it's hard to tell sometimes, when the news tells you daily that we're all going to die from killer bees and hot dogs and cancer and homicides and tainted drugs and cholesterol and...

I mean, some of the things in it may be serious, but it gets so hard to tell which, without doing some digging.

Regardless, damn, do I feel for the people who misjudged and have lost lives or loved ones, and I wish we could get better at collectively learning these sorts of things without having people experience so much terrible suffering first.


I remember how it was for only a few inches of snow. The media really is irresponsible and should only be showing the rational amount of excitement. But it's money.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
I guessed about that in my current wunderground blog titled "I didn't expect this." She and many others on Staten Island possibly did not understand what storm surge flooding can do. If they did they'd have left, and failing that, they'd have been on their roofs, not in basements and, in the tragic situation of this mom, trying to drive away from the rushing water. As you may also have read, several others trapped in basements drowned when the surge flood arrived at Staten Island.


For Staten Island, i think it will prove in the post analysis to be a deadly combination of storm surge and windwave/swell that produced the extreme coastal damage on the eastern shore of the Island. Given that NY harbor is open to the east between Sandy Hook and Rockaway point, and that storm surge elevated the bay by 10 or 12 feet, 15-20 feet deep water would have extended to just offshore the "normal" coastline at the height of the storm (and of course much deeper just a little further offshore). Storm significant waves at the NY harbor entrance buoy were 30 ft + at the height of Sandy, and I suspect nearly that height of wave made it more or less intact to the Staten island eastern shore.

NY harbor bathymetry: Link
551. LurkyMcLurkerson 4:18 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Thanks for the reply. I can't tell if you agree or disagree with me, but it doesn't matter.

Those who know me well know where my heart lies in the picture of storms and storm surge flooding. I spent seven years off and on creating a means to help the public understand.

What else I have to say about this storm is in my own wu blog.
Quoting LargoFl:
no need now..the whole world just witnessed what storm surge can do..picture after picture, night after night..the horrible truth of what storm surge can do......ME myself..in a hurricane i always..until now..watched for the winds..never the water...from now on i sure will


I've known about the surge issue for a long time. As a matter of fact ever since I was a kid I've been telling people how bad surge can be. That's why although I stayed in town during Charley I was in a well constructed building, several miles inland, 4 stories tall. We at least had the ability to be on a higher floor if we needed to be. Had I known it was going to turn so sharply I would have been further inland, but none the less, had we gotten a 20ft surge, I knew we would be ok. Luckily we didn't.
A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
DIG INTO THE BASE OF EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE SE STATES TUESDAY AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
RAPID AND STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST LATE TUESDAY WITH
THE DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING SLOWLY NORTH ALONG OR JUST OFF OF
THE NC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
Quoting Progster:


For Staten Island, i think it will prove in the post analysis to be a deadly combination of storm surge and windwave/swell that produced the extreme coastal damage on the eastern shore of the Island. Given that NY harbor is open to the east between Sandy Hook and Rockaway point, and that storm surge elevated the bay by 10 or 12 feet, 15-20 feet deep water would have extended to just offshore the "normal" coastline at the height of the storm (and of course much deeper just a little further offshore). Storm significant waves at the NY harbor entrance buoy were 30 ft + at the height of Sandy, and I suspect nearly that height of wave made it more or less intact to the Staten island eastern shore.

NY harbor bathymetry: Link
Thank you for your reply.
Quoting charlottefl:


I've known about the surge issue for a long time. As a matter of fact ever since I was a kid I've been telling people how bad surge can be. That's why although I stayed in town during Charley I was in a well constructed building, several miles inland, 4 stories tall. We at least had the ability to be on a higher floor if we needed to be. Had I known it was going to turn so sharply I would have been further inland, but none the less, had we gotten a 20ft surge, I knew we would be ok. Luckily we didn't.
I bet that sure is scary alright..people all over now..have a different prespective on even a cat-1 hurricane..each one is different, each can affect you and yours differently so we must as always..prepare for the worst it can throw at us..and if its less..we came thru it ok...
Quoting Progster:


For Staten Island, i think it will prove in the post analysis to be a deadly combination of storm surge and windwave/swell that produced the extreme coastal damage on the eastern shore of the Island. Given that NY harbor is open to the east between Sandy Hook and Rockaway point, and that storm surge elevated the bay by 10 or 12 feet, 15-20 feet deep water would have extended to just offshore the "normal" coastline at the height of the storm (and of course much deeper just a little further offshore). Storm significant waves at the NY harbor entrance buoy were 30 ft + at the height of Sandy, and I suspect nearly that height of wave made it more or less intact to the Staten island eastern shore.

NY harbor bathymetry: Link


Well I think some people think I can deal with the rising water, but I think a lot of those same people forget about the large battering waves on top of the surge. That's what does the real damage. Even a well constructed home being hit head on with 20-25 ft waves is not gonna survive. Water weighs ~8 lb per gallon. Just think about the weight of 20-25 feet of water. There aren't many buildings that would even stand a chance against that.
Quoting LargoFl:
no need now..the whole world just witnessed what storm surge can do..picture after picture, night after night..the horrible truth of what storm surge can do......ME myself..in a hurricane i always..until now..watched for the winds..never the water...from now on i sure will


I just hope we all get better at learning from seeing it, instead of everyplace having to go through it before people in other areas really get it.

Here, we aren't near the ocean, but we are protected by shabby levees and are at high risk for catastrophic flooding, and I cannot tell you how many blank stares -- even from generally well-informed people -- I get, when I talk about the flood maps and the timing involved, why folks in some neighborhoods should have a plan and be prepared to have to leave quickly.

"In this neighborhood, you'd have a few hours to get out, and that (hugely populated) neighborhood up there would have ~30 minutes before it was flooded to the rooftops" -- they've never heard such a thing. Public info, but they haven't looked. They blink at me.

"It can't happen here" is a strong human fallacy, and I desperately hope we all get over it without just continuous pain to real people as the only way we learn.
I see that lil blob in the south carribean is still there..
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


I just hope we all get better at learning from seeing it, instead of everyplace having to go through it before people in other areas really get it.

Here, we aren't near the ocean, but we are protected by shabby levees and are at high risk for catastrophic flooding, and I cannot tell you how many blank stares -- even from generally well-informed people -- I get, when I talk about the flood maps and the timing involved, why folks in some neighborhoods should have a plan and be prepared to have to leave quickly.

"In this neighborhood, you'd have a few hours to get out, and that (hugely populated) neighborhood up there would have ~30 minutes before it was flooded to the rooftops" -- they've never heard such a thing. Public info, but they haven't looked. They blink at me.

"It can't happen here" is a strong human fallacy, and I desperately hope we all get over it without just continuous pain to real people as the only way we learn.
yep your 100% right there
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


I just hope we all get better at learning from seeing it, instead of everyplace having to go through it before people in other areas really get it.

Here, we aren't near the ocean, but we are protected by shabby levees and are at high risk for catastrophic flooding, and I cannot tell you how many blank stares -- even from generally well-informed people -- I get, when I talk about the flood maps and the timing involved, why folks in some neighborhoods should have a plan and be prepared to have to leave quickly.

"In this neighborhood, you'd have a few hours to get out, and that (hugely populated) neighborhood up there would have ~30 minutes before it was flooded to the rooftops" -- they've never heard such a thing. Public info, but they haven't looked. They blink at me.

"It can't happen here" is a strong human fallacy, and I desperately hope we all get over it without just continuous pain to real people as the only way we learn.


Yeah, that's what I guess I was trying to say earlier. I think maybe we need to start using stronger language, and more graphic maybe even morbid references when it comes to conveying how deadly storm surge is. I get the same response from a lot of people, they've never seen it here therefore "it can't happen here". It can, and eventually it probably will....
Before Irene they had that show about what would happen if a Cat 3 hit NYC. I think they should have done the same for Sandy, or played bits of it on the news, perhaps some people who didn't leave might have. And maybe I'm dreaming. But it breaks my heart to read of deaths that could have been prevented. Inexperience played a huge part in this disaster.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Before Irene they had that show about what would happen if a Cat 3 hit NYC. I think they should have done the same for Sandy, or played bits of it on the news, perhaps some people who didn't leave might have. And maybe I'm dreaming. But it breaks my heart to read of deaths that could have been prevented. Inexperience played a huge part in this disaster.
yes it did, i dont think anyone up there ever figured it would be this bad, no one did.
this from the weather channel.............A storm system will develop over the Southeast Tuesday and swing northward just off the East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic through New England in the Wednesday through Thursday time frame. It is still very early in the forecast process to discuss details with high confidence but the general impacts will include another round of brisk winds, rainfall and chilly temperatures for the recovery areas along the coast. For planning purposes at this point I am looking at winds in the 25 to 30 mph range during Wednesday along the New Jersey and New York coast. Early rainfall forecast for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame are in the range of 1 to 2 inches for immediate coastal areas. I caution though that this forecast could change. Farther inland from the Poconos through Catskills and into New England higher elevations could be in line for snowfall. Again it is too early to discuss snowfall amounts with confidence but I can say that the snow will be a wet, heavy variety since temperatures will be near the freezing mark. This will not be a major snow event but depending on the model we could see a few inches of snow. This system will not be anywhere as strong or impactful as Sandy. In simple terms, at this point we do not expect the impacts to "break anything that is not already broken". However the combination of weather impacts will add insult to injury for the recovery process along the East Coast. Secondly, we are still 4 days out from the main impacts and much can still change with the evolution of a system whose ingredients are still off the Pacific Coast. It is imperative therefore to pay close attention to updated forecast as more information becomes available.
For those folks in nyc in the midst of that gas shortage,help is one the way according to the ny daily news, the defense dept is send millions of gallons of gas to help ease that shortage...people need that gas for the generators etc..good luck up there folks
Hello guys...nice to be back here but Im leaving soon

Such an argue I had overnight with this guy kinda wore me out
The GFS is coming into line with the EURO on this one. It has moved significantly closer to the coast than the earlier run.



Quoting Manhattancane:


I remember how it was for only a few inches of snow. The media really is irresponsible and should only be showing the rational amount of excitement. But it's money.


My favorite -- not media related, and really just funny -- is when I'm up in ME seeing family in the wintertime, and two snowflakes come down, and within, like, 30 seconds, there are a bazillion pickup trucks with their plows on scraping around everywhere you look. A flake hits the asphalt and it is *plowed*.

To be fair, those folks want to get paid, and I can't blame them, in rural ME -- not much work some places, especially in winter. It still makes me laugh a lot, though.
and in the midst of disaster, we have our Hero's who I hope will be recognized for their bravery in the face of extreme danger when this is all over up there.......


Upper East Side Man Hailed as Hero for Saving Taxi Driver from Drowning



Jon Candelaria, 25, waded into chest deep flood waters during Hurricane Sandy to carry a man to safety.


Read more: http://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/manhattan/upper-ea st-side#ixzz2BBF5Zwqf
Its bad up here in NJ. I uploaded some pics yesterday from Brigantine NJ i stayed during sandy.. FLooding was bad pics dont do it justice but they show the impacts. Pics are from before the peak AM high tide PM high tide was mich high about 4+ feet everywhere
Quoting NJcat3cane:
Its bad up here in NJ. I uploaded some pics yesterday from Brigantine NJ i stayed during sandy.. FLooding was bad pics dont do it justice but they show the impacts. Pics are from before the peak AM high tide PM high tide was mich high about 4+ feet everywhere
how did cresskill NJ fare in this storm?
will this be a snow event or a rain event for the E cost?
Nam at 84 hours.....................
Quoting LargoFl:
how did cresskill NJ fare in this storm?
not a clue if its farther north then AC on the coastline.. it was most likely destroyed
Man, it's gonna be cold on a lot of folks who have nothing.

Does anybody know if there's, like, a coat drive or anything? Blankets? I mean, no small number of folks have lost a lot of their stuff, and it's not easy to move those sorts of supplies in very well on this kind of time frame.
Most of the sources I've seen now show Hurricane Sandy's damage total will be around $50 billion. After further investigation, this will make it the fifth costliest natural disaster in United States history, and would've made it the second costliest hurricane in USA history.

As I said yesterday afternoon though, the storm will not officially go down as the second costliest hurricane in United States history, as Sandy was not tropical at landfall...it was extratropical.

Obviously that doesn't take away the effects of the storm.

The United States death toll is up to 109 this afternoon, bringing the storm's overall fatality number up to 181. If Sandy would have made landfall as a tropical cyclone, it would currently rank 25th on the list of deadliest United States hurricanes.
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:
Man, it's gonna be cold on a lot of folks who have nothing.

Does anybody know if there's, like, a coat drive or anything? Blankets? I mean, no small number of folks have lost a lot of their stuff, and it's not easy to move those sorts of supplies in very well on this kind of time frame.
im sure the red cross etc is there already along with all the other aid organizations..we must'nt forget to give blood if you can, lots of people up there surely need it
Quoting NJcat3cane:
not a clue if its farther north then AC on the coastline.. it was most likely destroyed
ok thanks
New Jersey's gas crunch in the wake of Hurricane Sandy has become so severe that state officials are implementing gas rationing for passenger vehicles in the counties hardest hit by the storm
im sorry for all the posts but some things need to be told..Two big-hearted firefighters took a break from dousing fires to flip 500 burgers and hot dogs for Far Rockaway residents impacted by the storm.

Kenny Hoch, of Engine 292 and John Basquez, of Engine 324, were temporarily assigned to work in Far Rockaway after Sandy hit.

"When we got here, it looked like a war zone," Hoch said. "It really hit home and put things into persepective."

The two men dug into their pockets and bought over $300 worth of food and drinks, firing up a barbecue grill from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m., on Beach 96th Street and Beach 116th Street.

"We're firemen, we help as many people as we can," Basquez said. "These people really need it."

Local resident Kathleen Byrne also pitched in to help. "Just keeping crowd control," she said.

Meanwhile hungry residents savored the warm meals. "We feel like we are not alone," said Teresa Santos, 39, who weathered out the storm in her apartment.

"This shows there is still hope for us. People have not lost their spirit because these good men are helping us get through these difficult conditions."
I hope this pattern continues through out the winter.It would certainly increase our chances of snow.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Most of the sources I've seen now show Hurricane Sandy's damage total will be around $50 billion. After further investigation, this will make it the fifth costliest natural disaster in United States history, and would've made it the second costliest hurricane in USA history.

As I said yesterday afternoon though, the storm will not officially go down as the second costliest hurricane in United States history, as Sandy was not tropical at landfall...it was extratropical.

Obviously that doesn't take away the effects of the storm.

The United States death toll is up to 109 this afternoon, bringing the storm's overall fatality number up to 181. If Sandy would have made landfall as a tropical cyclone, it would currently rank 25th on the list of deadliest United States hurricanes.


Yes it would, and is, as it was still Sandy that caused the damage, regardless of it's status as a post-tropical cyclone.
New GFS..
Four days have passed since Sandy hit, and survivors pleaded for basic necessities.

"We're freezing. Bottom line is that we're so cold (be)cause we have nothing -- no electricity, no gas," said Staten Island resident Michele Belloli.
Looks relatively tranquil today..
ECMWF windmap 120 hours..not good..
Quoting Tazmanian:
will this be a snow event or a rain event for the E cost?
I don't know, Taz, because I haven't looked. But if you check the 500 mb map on the models, the 5400 thickness line is kind of considered the dividing line between rain and snow.

On the map hydrus just posted at comment 596, you can see the 5400 line in yellow dipping down, indicating snow (potential) North of that line.
Quoting hydrus:
ECMWF windmap 120 hours..not good..
its going to be yet another story nasty day up there alright..all the models are showing it
Quoting Tazmanian:
will this be a snow event or a rain event for the E cost?

It will be rain for the coast and quite a ways inland (including all the areas hard hit by Sandy) with snow possible across interior areas, especially higher elevations.
Washington dc forecast for next week..........A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE WEEK. GUIDANCE STILL DIVERGES ON SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS
POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM. TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JETSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OTHER IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...MAY PHASE
TOGETHER TO DEVELOP COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IF
THESE SYSTEMS PHASE TOGETHER QUICK ENOUGH...THEN COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. IF THE SYSTEMS DO NOT PHASE TOGETHER IN TIME...THEN LOW
PRESSURE WILL NOT STRENGTHEN ENOUGH IN TIME TO IMPACT THE
MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY
FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
Quoting hydrus:
ECMWF windmap 120 hours..not good..

Nope. 12Z CMC really bombs this thing out and brings it even closer to the Northeast Coastline. This setup right here bring a 12 hour period of strong ENE and NE winds into the surge affected areas. Not a good situation if that panned out.

The CMC is the most aggressive model on the Nor'Easter right now. The 12z run today develops a monster storm (962mb!) and sends it up the East Coast and over Cape Cod:

Euro should be out momentarily. Whatever intensity it's portraying will likely be more accurate than the CMC.
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


My favorite -- not media related, and really just funny -- is when I'm up in ME seeing family in the wintertime, and two snowflakes come down, and within, like, 30 seconds, there are a bazillion pickup trucks with their plows on scraping around everywhere you look. A flake hits the asphalt and it is *plowed*.

To be fair, those folks want to get paid, and I can't blame them, in rural ME -- not much work some places, especially in winter. It still makes me laugh a lot, though.


Wasn't that a commercial once? Two plowers race with plows scraping on the asphalt making sparks to pick up one flake.
Mount Holley NWS for next weeks storm........AFTER THAT, MID LEVEL ENERGY THAT AT INITIALIZATION TIME WAS BEING
KICKED OUT OF A VORTEX SOUTH OF ALASKA (AND IS VISIBLE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY) IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING AND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z
ECMWF AND THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS ON THIS. BEYOND THAT, THERE IS
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OCCURRING TO
OUR NORTH AND THAT THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL FORM A MID LEVEL LOW
THAT CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE AROUND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
12Z AND 00Z ECMWF MOVE THE SYSTEM IN A TORTUOUSLY SLOW AND
ANNOYINGLY CONSISTENT MANNER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS RUNS
SHOW LESS CONSISTENCY: WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF, THE 18Z GFS RUN
WAS FURTHER EAST BUT NOT MUCH FASTER, AND THE 00Z RUN IS FASTER BUT
NOT MUCH FURTHER EAST. ALL FOUR HAVE AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW THAT
DEEPENS TO AROUND 990 MB AT OUR LATITUDE.

WE ARE VERY FAR OUT IN TIME, BUT THAT RIDGING TO THE NORTH GENERALLY
WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER SOLUTION. OUR PRESENT FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO OPERATIONAL MODELS AND CAME FROM A
COMBINATION OF THE PREVIOUS 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WE
PREFER TO SEE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE WE START TO NUDGE THE FORECAST
IN A SPECIFIC DIRECTION, BUT OUR HUNCH AT THIS TIME IS THAT WE WILL
BE SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT. IF THE FORECAST TRACK DOESN`T
CHANGE SPATIALLY, THIS WOULD HAVE US FORECASTING A RELATIVELY
SLOW-MOVING NOR`EASTER SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, TIDAL FLOODING
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW NORTHWEST ARE IN PLAY. REGARDING
THE TIDES, IT WOULD TAKE DEPARTURES OF ALMOST TWO FEET TO START
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AND ALMOST THREE FEET TO WARRANT A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING. THE LATTER IS NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS SANDY, BUT A 990 MB LOW
MOVING UP NEAR THE COAST WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

THE SLOWER ECMWF IS TAKING THE SYSTEM AWAY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, AND
THEN RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.

&&
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT NOV 3 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ROSA...LOCATED ABOUT 985 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Euro just began, but will be another 20 minutes or so before it gets out to 96 and then 120 hours...
The disturbance mentioned in the East Pac's TWO has a floater up that labels it as an invest, but there's nothing in the ATCF file or Navy site... strange.

NWS is doing a great job in getting the word out on this possible nor'easter next week, hope folks are listening...AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF MAINLY DRY BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL
STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION WITH RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AND
A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE.
The 12z CMC is starting to trend back west..





When they strike they seem strike in pairs. Frances and Jeanne come to mind.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nope. 12Z CMC really bombs this thing out and brings it even closer to the Northeast Coastline. This setup right here bring a 12 hour period of strong ENE and NE winds into the surge affected areas. Not a good situation if that panned out.

Terribly depressing is an understatement. I hope they can get people to safety before this weather event unfolds, or there may be more fatalities. Reconnecting power to some areas beforehand will aid in this.
The old Euro 120 hour..
What is really being ignored in this storm - and Irene as well - is the real source of the massive power outages that are so disruptive, which is all the trees that are falling on the lines. Trees didn't used to fall with regularity on power lines - or people, cars and houses. The winds in both those storms were not extraordinary, nothing that a healthy tree shouldn't be able to withstand, and that includes the snow in West Virginia. Why are they falling now?

The answer is pretty obvious if you trouble to actually LOOK at them. They are all dying. Every species, every age, every location. They have obvious symptoms - broken branches, cankers, splitting bark, holes, thin crowns, early leaf drop, lack of autumn color, yellowing needles, bark covered with lichens and fungus. You can't find a healthy tree anymore.

So the question becomes, why are they dying? Most foresters and scientists will say, climate change and/or invasive pests. But those explanations don't fit the empirical evidence which is that even native pests and diseases have run amock, and even young trees grown and watered and fertilized in nurseries are exhibit the identical symptoms of decline. Even annual, tropical ornamentals in enriched soil in pots that like heat, and aquatic plants in ponds have injured foliage and stunted growth. So what do all of these plants have in common?

The answer is, the composition of the atmosphere. Most people don't realize it, because it's invisible, the the background level of tropospheric ozone is inexorably increasing. Precursors from Asia travel across oceans and continents and the persistent concentration has reached a threshold that is intolerable to the plants that absorb it when they photosynthesize. Agricultural yield and quality are reduced, and especially trees that are exposed to cumulative damage season after season are universally - around the world - in decline.

This process has been well known to foresters and agronomists for decades, and demonstrated in field observation and controlled fumigation experiments. They just don't want to publicize it, or even admit it, because the source is the emissions from industrial civilization itself. They would rather point to drought, insects, fungus and disease EVEN THOUGH it is well known that ozone debilitates plants causing their root systems to shrink as they allocate more energy to repairing damaged foliage, rendering them more vulnerable to drought and wind...AND impinges on their natural immunity to attacks from insects, disease and fungus, which exist precisely to break down dying trees, not destroy healthy trees.

Most of the trees that fell during Sandy were rotted inside. Photos here: http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/
12z Euro.

72 hours..
Quoting Manhattancane:


Wasn't that a commercial once? Two plowers race with plows scraping on the asphalt making sparks to pick up one flake.


Ha! If so, I don't remember it, but it's not that far off, especially if it's been a dry winter. My dad and I watch them from the porch sometimes, sipping our coffee and laughing. It's sort of endearing, really, they do need the pay, and hey, the major roads are often super pristine.

But a serious storm is a whole different gig, and I do wish that at least the media would do a way better job of trying to present stuff with that context in mind. It would help a lot of folks figure out what they should actually be expecting -- some inconvenience vs. really dangerous? Day off from school vs. school could flood?

Some local mets do better with that than others, I think, but the big markets and the national press are often so hyped that even the serious forecasts sometimes feel both sensational and low on useful info.
Quoting LargoFl:
New Jersey's gas crunch in the wake of Hurricane Sandy has become so severe that state officials are implementing gas rationing for passenger vehicles in the counties hardest hit by the storm
Link
12z ECMWF in-line with the 12z GFS and 12z CMC, much stronger.

this is the classic noreaster right here..Gulf of mexico and then exiting off the east coast..snow for a lot of folks

96 hours
Quoting GTcooliebai:
When they strike they seem strike in pairs. Frances and Jeanne come to mind.
GT.....I'll never forget those 2 storms
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
12z ECMWF in-line with the 12z GFS and 12z CMC, much stronger.

Talk about making a bad situation much worse.
120 hours
Euro-120 hours
Winds
Pressure has been lower almost every run.
Quoting WitsEndNJ:
What is really being ignored in this storm - and Irene as well - is the real source of the massive power outages that are so disruptive, which is all the trees that are falling on the lines. Trees didn't used to fall with regularity on power lines - or people, cars and houses. The winds in both those storms were not extraordinary, nothing that a healthy tree shouldn't be able to withstand, and that includes the snow in West Virginia. Why are they falling now?

The answer is pretty obvious if you trouble to actually LOOK at them. They are all dying. Every species, every age, every location. They have obvious symptoms - broken branches, cankers, splitting bark, holes, thin crowns, early leaf drop, lack of autumn color, yellowing needles, bark covered with lichens and fungus. You can't find a healthy tree anymore.

So the question becomes, why are they dying? Most foresters and scientists will say, climate change and/or invasive pests. But those explanations don't fit the empirical evidence which is that even native pests and diseases have run amock, and even young trees grown and watered and fertilized in nurseries are exhibit the identical symptoms of decline. Even annual, tropical ornamentals in enriched soil in pots that like heat, and aquatic plants in ponds have injured foliage and stunted growth. So what do all of these plants have in common?

The answer is, the composition of the atmosphere. Most people don't realize it, because it's invisible, the the background level of tropospheric ozone is inexorably increasing. Precursors from Asia travel across oceans and continents and the persistent concentration has reached a threshold that is intolerable to the plants that absorb it when they photosynthesize. Agricultural yield and quality are reduced, and especially trees that are exposed to cumulative damage season after season are universally - around the world - in decline.

This process has been well known to foresters and agronomists for decades, and demonstrated in field observation and controlled fumigation experiments. They just don't want to publicize it, or even admit it, because the source is the emissions from industrial civilization itself. They would rather point to drought, insects, fungus and disease EVEN THOUGH it is well known that ozone debilitates plants causing their root systems to shrink as they allocate more energy to repairing damaged foliage, rendering them more vulnerable to drought and wind...AND impinges on their natural immunity to attacks from insects, disease and fungus, which exist precisely to break down dying trees, not destroy healthy trees.

Most of the trees that fell during Sandy were rotted inside. Photos here: http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/

Thank you for that post.
Intriguing stuff, which I will follow-up.
144 hours


168 hours






Has Grothar seen this first yet?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:






Has Grothar seen this first yet?


Of course he has, but whether he posted it yet, I don't know. *S*
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:






Has Grothar seen this first yet?




he seen nothing 1st
Quoting GTcooliebai:
When they strike they seem strike in pairs. Frances and Jeanne come to mind.


Irene and Lee.
Unfortunately, it's starting to look like this Nor'Easter is going to be the kind of storm that would make national headlines even without much of the East Coast getting devastated by a hurricane less than a week ago... just awful.

This is somewhat interesting. Probably will happen if the NAO does go way into the positive.DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 AM CDT SAT NOV 03 2012

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD...SHIFTING FROM AN
ERN TROUGH/WRN RIDGE TO A WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

AN ERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN D4-D5...AND WILL EXIT THE COAST IN THE
D6-D7 TIME FRAME. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY COOL AND STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

BY D7 AND D8...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE WRN STATES...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD. THIS WILL CAUSE WARM HUMID
AIR TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GFS BRINGS THE TROUGH EWD
INTO THE PLAINS ON D8 WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW...SUGGESTING SEVERE
WEATHER FROM OK INTO SRN MN. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH
FARTHER W. EVEN WITH THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION...INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
TO BE LIMITED.

SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE DENOTED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS ONCE
PREDICTABILITY OF THE TROUGH INCREASES.

..JEWELL.. 11/03/2012
Quoting wxgeek723:


Irene and Lee.
Its even worse in three,s -,Bob, Danny and Juan.
Via reuters:

The death toll from the storm rose to at least 110 with nine more deaths reported in New Jersey on Saturday, raising the total in that state to 22. New York revised its total down by one to 40, Reuters reports.

The storm killed 69 in the Caribbean before turning north and hammering the US northeast coast on Monday, ...
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:






Has Grothar seen this first yet?
could it have a yellow circle at the 8 pm update?
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/basic-service s-return-new-york-article-1.1195860


Food was distributed Friday in several badly-battered neighborhoods: Coney Island, the South Shore of Staten Island, Chinatown in lower Manhattan, and the Rockaways. About 290,000 meals and nearly 500,000 bottles of water were handed out Thursday as residents struggled to find those basic necessities.

There were 5,500 people still stranded in 15 city storm shelters. Forty city schools were damaged and unlikely to open Monday.
From Angela:

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Via reuters:

The death toll from the storm rose to at least 110 with nine more deaths reported in New Jersey on Saturday, raising the total in that state to 22. New York revised its total down by one to 40, Reuters reports.

The storm killed 69 in the Caribbean before turning north and hammering the US northeast coast on Monday, ...
my guess is as they go from house to house they will be finding more in the rubble..this is just awful
whats bad here is that ALOT of people dont have electric or radio's yet and might not know this is coming..possibly..............
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
AFFECT OUR REGION AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

$$
NO circles there yet.....................CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N82W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 8N82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
78W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 79W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM BELIZE TO PANAMA. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO N OF 18N
BETWEEN 64W-70W. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 63W. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N79W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
Quoting allancalderini:
could it have a yellow circle at the 8 pm update?


no just an area of showers moving over the region
organization threat low

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
This nor'easter will be what we've been use to for weeks now here.Wind and rain.The wind has been going strong here since Thursday.