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Moderate Risk of tornadoes for Kansas; 1-year Super Outbreak anniversary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:21 PM GMT on April 27, 2012

A dangerous severe weather threat is developing for Kansas today, where a small but potent storm system in the western part of the state will intensify and move east. By late this afternoon, the storm will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of bringing large hail and strong tornadoes to eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in its "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, the second highest level of alert. Cities in the Moderate Risk area include Topeka, Kansas, and Kansas City, Missouri.


Figure 1. Severe weather outlook for April 27, 2012, from our severe weather page.

One-year anniversary of the April 27, 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak
One year ago today, an astonishing outbreak of atmospheric violence unparalleled in world history hit the Southeast U.S. A total of 199 tornadoes touched down, including eleven violent EF-4s and four maximum-strength EF-5s. The 4-day period April 25 - 28 was the largest and most damaging severe weather outbreak in world history, with a total of 358 tornadoes, $10.4 billion in damage, and 321 deaths.


Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to 4:15 to see the worst of the storm.


Video 2. CBS42 meteorologist Mark Prater tracks the Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado of April 27, 2011.


Video 3. Five-minute look at the Tuscaloosa tornado of April 27, 2011 and the damage it wrought.

Jeff Masters
As Is
As Is
My husband and I were visiting my parents in Birmingham, Alabama. We decided to take a day trip to Tuscaloosa to see the damage from the April 27 tornado. It was a sight that I will never forget. Blocks and blocks of flattened houses and stores. This area has not been touched in 2 months. It was so moving that I started to cry thinking of all these poor people.

Tornado Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah its slow just came inside from checkin out how cold its outside my door and its frosty tonight 35 going down to 28 29 maybe


:)
Good night fellow bloggers and hopfully you'll all have a great weekend
Quoting Orcasystems:


:)

we almost had snow in toronto last weekend
big warm up coming mid next week be in mid 70s
soon the heat and humity will be upon us
nearing freezing point

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 AM EDT Saturday 28 April 2012
Condition: Mainly Clear
Pressure: 30.27 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 33.1°F
Dewpoint: 20.1°F
Humidity: 58 %
Wind: NW 9 mph
So, Keeper you seem a little doomdasish, we share that in common. Our outlooks on why differ, but I think we both feel something big could happen this year, be it a devastating hurricane, or a five minute 9.2 off the Oregon Coast. New Madrid going would send us to level red too. Anyone ever read what happens when the red card comes out?
Looks ideal
Atmospheric warming altering ocean salinity -- Surface salinity changes for 1950 to 2000.

Red indicates regions becoming saltier, and blue indicates regions becoming [less salty].
Enlarged Image
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 AM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-281600-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.A.0005.120429T0600Z-120429T1200Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120428T1200Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
351 AM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARDS...HARD FREEZE.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S THIS MORNING. UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

* TIMING...THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING AND 2 AM AND 8 AM SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...ANY OUTDOOR...SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY SUFFER DAMAGE
IF NOT PROTECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT
OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Heads up Chicago:

Good Morning folks, warm and dry here this morning.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
603 AM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064 >067-071>074-
291015-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-MASON-LAKE-
OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUS KEGON-MONTCALM-
GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-E ATON-INGHAM-
VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
603 AM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.


$$

MJS
Miami NWS Discussion

THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH SHOWING 20-30 KNOT SURFACE WINDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THEY BOTH TRY AND DEVELOP A
HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL TYPE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS...BUT DOES HAVE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. SO IT APPEARS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE TO STRONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE. DID
NOT INCREASE WINDS DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE REGION AND LOCAL
WATERS...AND INSTEAD OPTED TO DO A BLEND BUT STILL SHOWED SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GET REINFORCED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE INVERTED TROUGH/HYBRID SYSTEM
BACK TO THE WEST IF IT DEVELOPS...AND BEGIN TO PULL THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND HEAVIER RAINFALL BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SO KEPT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THIS TIME.
Good Morning
Good morning
Quoting nigel20:


AO



PNA

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWli nk/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

MJO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWli nk/MJO/ensplume_small.gif

All this spells cooler weather over the East and less Trade Winds over the tropics!
Still winter in the northern states it seems.....URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
424 AM MDT SAT APR 28 2012

MTZ009>014-047-048-050-051-053-290000-
/O.CON.KTFX.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-120429T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTFX.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-120429T0000Z/
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-CASCADE-
CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-BLAINE-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-BROADWATER-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...BROWNING...MARIAS PASS...
CUT BANK...HAVRE...GREAT FALLS...KINGS HILL PASS...BIG SANDY...
FORT BENTON...FLESHER PASS...HELENA...LINCOLN...MACDONALD PASS...
ROGERS PASS...CHINOOK...CHOTEAU...STANFORD...LEWISTOWN...
LEWISTOWN DIVIDE...TOWNSEND
424 AM MDT SAT APR 28 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING.

* TIMING AND MAIN IMPACT: PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM THE
WEST TODAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA. ABOVE 4000
FEET...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALL SNOW...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH
OR CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES BELOW 4000 FEET.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE
EXPECTED ABOVE 4000 FEET ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...WHILE
3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THE REMAINING
AREAS ABOVE 4000 FEET ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
BELOW 4000 FEET...AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY: NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH FALLING SNOW TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES...MAINLY EAST OF A
GREAT FALLS TO CUT BANK LINE.

* OTHER IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ABOVE
4000 FEET. YOUNG LIVESTOCK MAY ALSO BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED.
OUTDOOR RECREATIONALISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE WINTER
WEATHER. WET SNOW MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE ON POWER LINES AND TREES
THAT HAVE LEAFED OUT...POSSIBLY CAUSING DAMAGE OR POWER
OUTAGES.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE: CHOTEAU...STANFORD...CHINOOK...
BIG SANDY...FORT BENTON...BROWNING...MARIAS PASS... CUT
BANK...HAVRE...GREAT FALLS...KINGS HILL PASS... TOWNSEND...
FLESHER PASS...HELENA...LINCOLN... MACDONALD PASS...ROGERS
PASS...LEWISTOWN...LEWISTOWN DIVIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS
SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.
STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU
MUST...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

FOR SPECIFIC ROAD AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN MONTANA...DIAL 5 1 1.

&&

$$
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
815 AM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

KYZ103-105-WVZ005-006-013-014-281245-
BOYD KY-CABELL WV-LAWRENCE KY-LINCOLN WV-PUTNAM WV-WAYNE WV-
815 AM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BOYD...NORTH CENTRAL LAWRENCE...
SOUTHERN CABELL...SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM...WAYNE AND WESTERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES...

AT 811 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WAYNE AROUND 820 AM...EAST LYNN AROUND 830
AM...BRANCHLAND AROUND 840 AM AND MYRA AROUND 850 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 186 AND 191 IN KENTUCKY...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 2 IN
WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3838 8199 3803 8201 3809 8269 3839 8269

$$

12
Good morning to all. It looks like Puerto Rico will be once again in 2012 under a rainy pattern next week.Here is an excerpt from the NWS of San Juan.

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS WITH UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
TO INCREASE AND THEREFORE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
608 AM MDT SAT APR 28 2012

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
TODAY...

.A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

WYZ008-009-282200-
/O.CON.KRIW.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-120429T1200Z/
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
608 AM MDT SAT APR 28 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT
SUNDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT
SUNDAY.

* SUMMARY AND TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY TODAY
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.

* SNOWFALL SO FAR AS OF 500 AM MDT...SNOWFALL RANGED FROM 3 TO 9
INCHES ABOVE 7700 FEET. BALD MOUNTAIN AT 9380 FEET...HAS
RECEIVED ABOUT 12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE 500 PM LAST NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES. LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 18
INCHES IN THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...AROUND BALD MOUNTAIN.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AT
TIMES. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT
TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW.

* IMPACTS...POWDER RIVER AND GRANITE PASSES WILL BECOME SNOW
PACKED AND SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AND IS NOT ADVISED
BUT IF YOU MUST TRAVEL MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WINTER SAFETY KIT
IN YOUR VEHICLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY THE WYOMING DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION ARE AVAILABLE BY CALLING 5-1-1 OR ON THE INTERNET
AT WYOROAD.INFO.

&&

$$

AR
Ice Shelf in Antarctica has shrunk by 85% in 17 Years?..Link
humm. Hybrid/Subtropical wording from the MIA NWS, that ought to get the casters moving this morning, lol. Could get 92L out of this anyway.
NEW BLOG
Quoting LargoFl:


We will end up with 15 named storms lol! Bets are opened.
Quoting Patrap:
A Lot of Damage and surge was Ivan's calling card and History.

A Powerful storm no doubt..

Uploaded by RepJeffMiller on Jun 1, 2011


Footage from Hurricane Ivan. Ivan made land fall on September 16, 2004 as a Category 3 storm. It was the 10th most intense Atlantic hurricane ever recorded and the 6th costliest to the United States.

Some of the most notorious tropical cyclones have impacted the united states during el nino years so no need to raise spirits.

.

Some of the most notorious tropical cyclones have impacted the united states during el nino years so no need to raise spirits.

.