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Mississippi River sets all-time flood records; 2nd major spillway opens

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:06 PM GMT on May 09, 2011

The Mighty Mississippi continues to wreak havoc as the river's highest flood crest in history pushes southwards near Memphis, Tennessee today. The river crested at its highest height on record over the past four days along a 70-mile stretch from New Madrid, Missouri to Tiptonville, Tennessee, to Caruthersville, Missouri, smashing records that had stood since the great flood of 1937. The flood height of 47.6' at Caruthersville, Missouri, on Saturday was a full 1.6 feet above the previous record flood height, set in 1937. However, thanks in part to decision by the Army Corps of Engineers last Monday to intentionally destroy a levee at Birds Point on the west bank of the Mississippi, pressure on the levees along this stretch of river was substantially reduced, potentially preventing multi-billion-dollar levee breaches. Currently, the Mississippi is expected to reach its 2nd highest level on record at Memphis on May 10, cresting at 48.0'. The all-time record at Memphis occurred during the great flood of 1937, when the river hit 48.7'. Downstream from Memphis, flood waters pouring in from the Arkansas River, Yazoo River, and other tributaries are expected to swell the Mississippi high enough to beat the all-time record at Vicksburg, Mississippi by 1.3' on May 19, and smash the all-time record at Natchez, Mississippi by six feet on May 21, and by 3.2 feet at Red River Landing on May 22. Red River Landing is the site of the Old River Control Structure, the Army Corps' massive engineering structure that keeps the Mississippi River from carving a new path to the Gulf of Mexico. I'll have a detailed post talking about the Old River Control Structure later this week. Its failure would be a serious blow to the U.S. economy, and the great Mississippi flood of 2011 will give the Old River Control Structure its most severe test ever. Also of concern is the forecast for the Mississippi to crest at 19.5 feet in New Orleans on May 23. The levees in New Orleans protect the city for a flood of 20.0 feet--that is not much breathing room. Fortunately, rainfall of at most 0.5 inches is expected over the Lower Mississippi River watershed over the next five days, which should prevent flood heights from rising above the current forecast.


Figure 1. Opening of the Bonnet Carre' Spillway on March 17, 1997. The spillway was operational from March 17 to April 18, 1997, operating at a maximum flow of 243,000 cu ft/s (6,900 m3/s). Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.

Bonnet Carre' Spillway opens
Today, the Army Corps of Engineers is setting in motion another key part of their plan to control the great flood of 2011. The Corps is opening the Bonnet Carre' Spillway to divert 250,000 cubic feet per second of water from the Mississippi River into Lake Pontchartrain, some 28 miles upstream from New Orleans. A large crane will traverse a 1.5 mile-long stretch of the Mississippi River and remove large wooden slats that will allow the river to spill northwards into a 6-mile long channel lined by guide levees, to Lake Pontchartrain. The land that will be inundated is uninhabited and is not farmed, unlike the land of the Birds Point-New Madrid Spillway that was inundated by last week's intentional levee breach. The main concern with opening the Bonnet Carre' Spillway is the impact of the Mississippi River's fresh water on the salt water ecosystems of Lake Pontchartrain. This is the 10th time since 1937 that the Bonnet Carre' Spillway has been opened. The Army Corps is considering opening the final spillway they have in reserve, the great Morganza Spillway in Louisiana, late this week. The Army Corps has never opened all three Lower Mississippi River spillways at the same time. The Morganza Spillway has been opened only once, back in 1973.


Figure 2. The last time the Bonnet Carre Spillway was opened was in 2008. The International Space Station captured this image of the muddy brown waters of the Mississippi flooding into Louisiana's Lake Pontchartrain, just upstream from New Orleans. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Good links to follow the flood:
Summary forecast of all crests on Lower Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.
Wundermap for Cairo, IL with USGS River overlay turned on.
National Weather Service "May 2011 Mississippi River Flood" web page

Jeff Masters
Flooding In Tennessee
Flooding In Tennessee
The flood waters of the Obion River and the Mighty Mississippi River has taken over many communities in Northwest Tennessee. This small Community of Bogota in Dyer County is only one of many that is now a disaster area.
Mississippi River at Memphis Greenbelt Park Flood at 47.6 ft 6
Mississippi River at Memphis Greenbelt Park Flood at 47.6 ft 6
This is the parking lot to the park that I posted pictures of a few days ago. Now the entire lot is under water.

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks
i read that book about the mississippi flood of 1927 and it was horrific. Was the one in 1937 worse?? Is the one now worse?
Seriously, what is wrong with nature this year?

If its not Earthquakes or Tsunami's its flooding and tornadoes.
Only 28 of the Bonnet Carre Spillway 350 Bays are being opened today.


Corps begins opening Bonnet Carre Spillway bays




Nearly an hour after the first pin was pulled from the Bonnet Carre Spillway structure, Army Corps of Engineers officials have opened four bays. The plan is to open 28 of the structure's 350 bays today.


Given rising river levels, more are certain to be opened.

"We're going to look at the flows on a day by day basis and make that decision," Spillway manager Chris Brantley said.

There is a large crowd on hand to view the opening and the spillway recreation area is filling quickly with rushing water.
The Corps Public Affairs Office is handing out orange flying disks, with "Safety First" printed on them.

The fog that obscured the view for the spillway control structure in the early morning hours is burning off. There are many school-age children along the banks, many in school uniforms, who will likely be missing morning classes.
History in the making for the Mighty Mississippi. Thanks for the blog, Doc.
Greetings all! I've noticed lately that a few names that have been regulars in this blog are gone. Good ones, too. Are people getting kicked out? I haven't really noticed anything too horrible in here. Anyway, one person I followed appears to be gone for good....
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters on the great Mississippu River flood. I still have a lot of family down there.

I have traveled old Arline Hwy (Hwy 61) and I-10 between Baton Rouge and New Orleans many times growing up in S. La. It is a sight to see when the Bonnet Carre flood gates are open and the waters is tumbling / rushing from the Ole Man River to the lake, when it is usually just swampy stillness.

But more grave is the opening of the Morganza Spillway, and it's effect on the many small communities, and residents who make there living there, and the not so small city and industry center of Morgan City. It's got to be done, but I really really hope that only opening half of Morganza's gates is enough.





A excerpt from an article on nola.com

"Roland Weber of St. John the Baptist Parish, said he has seen several openings when he worked at nearby Shell Chemical.

"People do crazy things," he said. "I saw a couple of people go through the gates in a kayak. They didn't realize that the water goes straight down. They were lucky that somebody was on the other side and pulled them out."

wow
Thanks, lets all pray the rain stays away from all this...
Quoting twhcracker:
i read that book about the mississippi flood of 1927 and it was horrific. Was the one in 1937 worse?? Is the one now worse?


Was that Rising Tide?

I live in Memphis and parts of town look like NOLA after Katrina, 3/4 quarters of folks in Tipton County immediately above lost power last night. However we are blessed compared to Louisiana. As Dr. Master's said today, if Ms. Ippi diverts its channel that will be an economic and social catastrophe. As much as I dislike many of Army Corp of Engineer's flood control policies and practices, I am pulling for them on this one. Just hate that Lake Pontchartrain is being inundated with fresh water, we just continue to drive nails in our ecosystems.
Thanks Doctor; if it's not one thing; it's the other. That large dose of freshwater into Lake Pontchartrain will have an huge impact on mother natures salinity level balance and impact wildlife.........Just been a horrible several months (a Year in the case of the Gulf States)for the US and other parts of the world lately from Mother Nature.
Quoting afj3:
Greetings all! I've noticed lately that a few names that have been regulars in this blog are gone. Good ones, too. Are people getting kicked out? I haven't really noticed anything too horrible in here. Anyway, one person I followed appears to be gone for good....

Waiting for the season. I only check every few days because there is so much blather and so little weather.
14. afj3
Quoting twincomanche:

Waiting for the season. I only check every few days because there is so much blather and so little weather.

Thanks twincomanche. Things will start heating up real soon! Just days to go!
Another flooding note from up here in Canada.

The Richelieu crisis seems to have abated now... but now we have the Assiniboine River in Manitoba at levels never before seen.

Manitoba has been dealing with major flooding all spring but it seems to be getting worse now.

125 troops from local CF bases have been called in to help there as they were in Quebec with more on standby.



900 homes are currently under evacuation order for today.
I think I can speak for many of us in TX and along the Mississippi when I say...

"UNCLE!"


Subtropical storm developing north of the Gulf Stream, drifting WSW?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Subtropical storm developing north of the Gulf Stream, drifting WSW?


highly doubt it, looks extra-tropical.
Hmm.. interesting. GFS phase diagrams saying the disturbance off the coast of the US 'might' become a symmetric warmcore system.
...Really?

GFS is picking up on the possibility of a 1001 mb low in the BOC in 6-7 days.
Just a swirlin.
The link below are photos showing the farms in southeastern Missouri after Birdspoint spillway was blown.

Link
This system might be interesting..It is a slow mover...
Interesting area spinning up N.

2km Visible
Quoting CybrTeddy:
GFS is picking up on the possibility of a 1001 mb low in the BOC in 6-7 days.
,I'd start watching the area east of panama to slowly begining to prime for some possible tropical mischief and lifting northward over the next 5-10days
Over the loop current so waters arent that cold.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astrological Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
TROPICAL STORM BEBENG (AERE)
11:00 PM PhST May 9 2011
====================================

Tropical Storm "BEBENG" has slightly weakened as it moves North Northeastward.

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Bebeng (AERE) located at 18.6°N 122.5°E or 85 km northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Signal #2
===============

Luzon Region
----------
1.Cagayan
2.Babuyan
3.Calayan

Storm Signal #1
==============

Luzon Region
------------
1.Isabela
2.Quirino
3.Ifugao
4.Mt. Province
5.Kalinga
6.Apayao
7.Batanes

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Tropical Storm "Bebeng" is expected to bring rains over the western section of Luzon. Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 a.m. tomorrow.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL STORM AERE (T1101)
0:00 AM JST May 10 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Luzon Philippines

At 15:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Aere (996 hPa) located at 18.5N 122.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 22.1N 123.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 25.9N 126.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


whoa, low 30's SST..... seems like the system is being primed for a rather nice kick off.

this time next week should give up a better idea of how the models are fairing this year?
SST Anomalies in the GOM sure did decrease in one week.


April 30th






May 7th

Quoting RyanWalsh:
The link below are photos showing the farms in southeastern Missouri after Birdspoint spillway was blown.

Link
Thanks. We owe these folks a lot.
The low in the NW Atlantic is only looking warm-core on the phase diagram because it is becoming secluded, where a patch of warm air becomes isolated near the center of the storm as the fronts wind up around it. The low will be sitting around for a good few days, but outside of the gulf stream the SSTs are below 20C, not to mention that the gulf stream itself is providing a pretty nice baroclinic boundary that the low center will find it hard to rid itself of.
Quoting DestinJeff:


I think we just got our first "tropical mischief" use of the season!

stillwaiting, you may collect your door prize at the concierge table.

THANKS FOR PLAYING EVERYONE!


I believe I used the word just a couple days ago.
Quoting DestinJeff:


I think we just got our first "tropical mischief" use of the season!

stillwaiting, you may collect your door prize at the concierge table.

THANKS FOR PLAYING EVERYONE!


Thank goodness for ya there, DJ.....I just laughed !!
Good news from the NWS in Melbourne this afternoon as they are thinking that the rainy season is very likely going to begin in C FL this week. Models are showing this as well and seem to be getting more robust with this thinking. CROSS YOUR FINGERS!

GFS is spitting out some good rain across the penisula over the next couple of weeks.
#37. Thanks Levi. Good explanation.
42. MTWX
Quoting afj3:
Greetings all! I've noticed lately that a few names that have been regulars in this blog are gone. Good ones, too. Are people getting kicked out? I haven't really noticed anything too horrible in here. Anyway, one person I followed appears to be gone for good....

A good few of us have been working through Portlight moving supplies into the south, so most haven't had time to get on here a who lot.
Link to a before and after pic of mud island flooding in Memphis.
@ #25 Hydrus- That knot on your sat photo is a MAJOR wind producer! It just ran over us here in the desert yesterday, and if it gets out over Texas where those strong winds from the south can snatch up Gulf Coast moisture, it's going to cause some havoc. Check the jet stream map in a couple days and if it coincides with that low trough, there's going to be a bad day for some folks in Tornado Alley. Just my .02...
Quoting DestinJeff:


owners of the catchphrase are not eligible to participate.


catch catch cashew
Quoting RastaSteve:
Good news from the NWS in Melbourne this afternoon as they are thinking that the rainy season is very likely going to begin in C FL this week. Models are showing this as well and seem to be getting more robust with this thinking. CROSS YOUR FINGERS!

GFS is spitting out some good rain across the penisula over the next couple of weeks.

FRI-SUN...STILL NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT LONGER RANGE FORECAST.
LATEST RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES...BUT ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH TROFFING ALOFT AND SOME
INCREASED MOISTURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED SOME TRENDING UPWARD AS SITUATION
BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED.

This is what I see from MLB discussion. Could you post a link to your source? It seems as if you are exaggerating what the NWS forecasters are mentioning.
Quoting photomunkey:
@ #25 Hydrus- That knot on your sat photo is a MAJOR wind producer! It just ran over us here in the desert yesterday, and if it gets out over Texas where those strong winds from the south can snatch up Gulf Coast moisture, it's going to cause some havoc. Check the jet stream map in a couple days and if it coincides with that low trough, there's going to be a bad day for some folks in Tornado Alley. Just my .02...
Looks impressive. It will likely dump a lot of rain on areas that absolutely do not need it. I found this huge blob of moisture and thunderstorm activity a bit concerning. Especially if it is picked up by any of the slow moving troughs forecast to propagate across the U.S. during the next couple of weeks...
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK(for Central FL)...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF EARLY MAY WITH DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
GENERALLY EXPECTED. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S (CPC) 6-10 AND
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR GREATER CHANCES OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA CONTINUING INTO MID MAY.
For a preview of the Old River Control Structures story, see The Daily Impact's Mississippi Rising: Apocalypse Now?
Quoting DestinJeff:


owners of the catchphrase are not eligible to participate.


snort .... giggle...sorry, totally inappropriate office behavor!
Quoting seminolesfan:
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK(for Central FL)...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF EARLY MAY WITH DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
GENERALLY EXPECTED. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S (CPC) 6-10 AND
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR GREATER CHANCES OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA CONTINUING INTO MID MAY.


HMMM? Not what I'm seeing. You may want to check the date on that. This came out yesterday afternoon if you want to know. It shows below normal temps and above average rainfall starting up later this week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions /610day/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions /814day/
Quoting seminolesfan:

FRI-SUN...STILL NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT LONGER RANGE FORECAST.
LATEST RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES...BUT ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH TROFFING ALOFT AND SOME
INCREASED MOISTURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED SOME TRENDING UPWARD AS SITUATION
BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED.

This is what I see from MLB discussion. Could you post a link to your source? It seems as if you are exaggerating what the NWS forecasters are mentioning.


Yeah your right I only talked to them on the phone about an hour ago.
You gotta love some of these people on here! Atleast look at the models and correct information before you engage in an attack. Just saying.
Quoting RastaSteve:


HMMM? Not what I'm seeing. You may want to check the date on that. This came out yesterday afternoon if you want to know. It shows below normal temps and above average rainfall starting up later this week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions /610day/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions /814day/
But the rainy season doesn't really start until late May and really gets going in June/July, so the normal baseline is on the dry end of the spectrum.

THE CURRENT CPC 1 MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MAY
AND 3 MONTH OUTLOOK THROUGH MAY TO JULY CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...NEAR...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS MORE UNCERTAIN
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF LA
NINA OVER THE AREA AND THE NORMAL TRANSITION TO THE WET SEASON FOR
FLORIDA WHICH TYPICALLY BEGINS BY LATE MAY.
Quoting RastaSteve:


Yeah your right I only talked to them on the phone about an hour ago.
Whatever, man. You've been on the 'early start to the rainy season' kick for a month now.

I'm just posting what I see; Just like you.

Why are you so defensive?

Quoting seminolesfan:
But the rainy season doesn't really start until late May and really gets going in June/July, so the normal baseline is on the dry end of the spectrum.

THE CURRENT CPC 1 MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MAY
AND 3 MONTH OUTLOOK THROUGH MAY TO JULY CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...NEAR...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS MORE UNCERTAIN
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF LA
NINA OVER THE AREA AND THE NORMAL TRANSITION TO THE WET SEASON FOR
FLORIDA WHICH TYPICALLY BEGINS BY LATE MAY.


In years of La-Nina it is typical of an early start. Hince 2009 started around 5/10/2009 give or take. One main reason for all the above normal precip being predicted now is the fact a cut off low is forecast to dig south toward the Gulf coast of the Panhandle.
More convection moving off of Africa..If this were to continue, the Atlantic will have an early start..jmo
Quoting RastaSteve:


In years of La-Nina it is typical of an early start. Hince 2009 started around 5/10/2009 give or take. One main reason for all the above normal precip being predicted now is the fact a cut off low is forecast to dig south toward the Gulf coast of the Panhandle.

2010 started closer to the 16th.

Median start date is the 20th and La Nina's impacts to FL are waning. Therefore, not much supporting evidence for the early start you are claiming.

I'm really not trying to get into a pissing match with you. I just asked for the link to the source you mentioned where the NWS MLB forecasters are progging it to start this week.
Interesting to see a Low like this off the coast of New England, and still have such a beautiful day here in eastern Massachusetts. I suppose its out there at 40/65, but has a pretty big arm of moisture on its west side.

Local mets have the storm moving little, with only 20-30% chance of showers over the next few days. Guess we will see with a high pressure to the NW. Should be gusty with the pressure gradient.

Northeast radar loop
Link

Burlington International Airport, VT
'Mostly Cloudy'
60 °F
(16 °C)
Humidity: 41 %
Wind Speed: NW 20 G 28 MPH
Barometer: 30.07" (1018.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 36 °F (2 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.


Quoting IceCoast:
Interesting to see a Low like this off the coast of New England


Looks like it could go subtropical if it moved a little more to the south/SW. Big pool of 25C waters from the Gulf stream.




Shearing winds are still whistlin!! Not much can happen in the tropics until these come down!
The analog years for this hurricane season are 1964, 1998 and 2010. Though 2010 is an analog year, and only T.S.Bonnie made a direct hit on the U.S., they are still forecasting several U.S. landfalls. I believe this to be correct. I also believe storms this years will be mostly slow movers and more erratic, making long range forecasts more difficult. This also increases the chance of a powerful hurricane making landfall in our part of the world. jmo..Gulf moisture is increasing...
Quoting alfabob:


Looks like it could go subtropical if it moved a little more to the south/SW. Big pool of 25C waters from the Gulf stream.

Already lookin darn good on satellite.
2010 shouldn't be considered an analog year. 2008 should.
Quoting hydrus:
The analog years for this hurricane season are 1964, 1998 and 2010.


I'm thinking that 2008 may be a good year for comparison also; ENSO patterns are very similar, although 2011 is maybe a month/month and a half ahead in terms of the signal I noticed (data at the end of Link - pgs 25,26).
The Honey Prarie fire in the Okefenokee swamp has now scorched 61,000 acres and counting.

NWS Jax - THE HONEY PRAIRIE FIRE IN THE OKEFENOKEE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE
HAS REACHED OVER 61000 ACRES. A PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
SEND SMOKE PLUMES TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TODAY. AN SPS PRODUCT IS
CURRENTLY ADDRESSING SMOKE-RELATED ISSUES





Quoting CybrTeddy:
2010 shouldn't be considered an analog year. 2008 should.


2011 shouldn't be anything close to 2010. We have way less heat in the tropics this year. In fact, Atlantic SSTs are very average for the most part so far. If we don't have weak El Nino conditions this year, I think it will at least be warm-neutral. I'm thinking 12-13 named storms max this year just based on recent trends.
I'm with alfabob and CybrTeddy - 2010 is not a good analogue, and 2008 is MUCH better.
Quoting alfabob:


I'm thinking that 2008 may be a good year for comparison also; ENSO patterns are very similar, although 2011 is maybe a month/month and a half ahead in terms of the signal I noticed (data at the end of Link - pgs 25,26).
2008 was a disastrous year for the U.S.,Cuba and Haiti...plees pick anudder one..:)
Quoting MississippiWx:

2011 shouldn't be anything close to 2010. We have way less heat in the tropics this year. In fact, Atlantic SSTs are very average for the most part so far.

Things will be heating up very soon, look at the SST anomalies coming back from the Gulf stream (eastern Atlantic); this would be the only similarity to 2010 by the time we reach August. Plus we may be running out of Arctic sea ice later this season, who knows how much cooling that provides during peak activity. But I agree that it won't be like 2010 because there isn't enough arctic air-mass left to protect CONUS this time around, so it will be up to overall steering.
26C depth is almost equivalent to 2010 now:

Quoting jeffs713:
I'm with alfabob and CybrTeddy - 2010 is not a good analogue, and 2008 is MUCH better.
I agree too..I just mentioned it for the record.I am still looking at data before I make some kind of prediction. I did pretty good last year. I felt that 1969 was a good analog year. There were 18 named storms(possibly a couple more that should have been designated according to the experts)and 12 became hurricanes. We had 19 tropical storms and 12 hurricanes in 2010..I made a prediction of three hurricanes making cat-5 because of all the heat out there. Never even had one...
From the drenched fields of the Mississippi basin (sorry to hear about the damage and disruption, you guys really haven't had a good weather year so far) to bone dry Western Europe.

"The scale of just how dry the start of 2011 has been is evident in some fascinating data from one of Europe's latest Earth observation satellites.

Smos senses the moisture in the top layers of soil, and it is very clear in these maps that the ground across the UK and much of Europe is now gasping for water.

Last month was the warmest April on record in Britain.

It was also the 11th driest month, with on average just half the usual rainfall. And in parts of south-east England, there was less than 10% of normal precipitation.

--

At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), researchers are experimenting with Smos data.

The ECMWF, which is based at Reading, UK, produces forecasts that look 10 days ahead and more, including making seasonal forecasts.

"We already have soil moisture data in our forecast system which does not use Smos, and our soil moisture data is already quite good. But there is potential to improve it with Smos," said the centre's Dr Patricia de Rosnay. "At the moment we are not sure at what range into the future, Smos data will be most useful to us in making forecasts."

Link

It really has been very warm, which is nice. Well above average, hitting above 70 pretty regularly. Some of the months in the last few summers have not been that prolific with heat.

However, aside the last couple of days with a few showers now and then, I don't really remember last time we had much rain. If any at all. Some places have had only about 3% of usual rainfall this time of year. We're not really complaining, but if it continues, I suspect some might - particularly if ends up being a precursor to 2003 again.
Quoting MississippiWx:


2011 shouldn't be anything close to 2010. We have way less heat in the tropics this year. In fact, Atlantic SSTs are very average for the most part so far. If we don't have weak El Nino conditions this year, I think it will at least be warm-neutral. I'm thinking 12-13 named storms max this year just based on recent trends.


I respectfully disagree with your analysis. There will be about the same amount of storms as 2010 for this upcoming year. Just my opinion, but things are in place to keep this year about the same as last year.
I'd probably disagree with your analog years, Hydrus - all are Nino-to-Nina years at least in ENSO terms, which this one won't be.
Here's the ACOE's inundation map showing the estimated flood depths if Bonnet Carre spillway is 100% open and the Morganza spillway is at 50%:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Quoting Cotillion:
I'd probably disagree with your analog years, Hydrus - all are Nino-to-Nina years at least in ENSO terms, which this one won't be.
lmao...There not mine you wanker...:)
Man this thing is looking impressive for being so far north...

Quoting hydrus:
lmao...There not mine you wanker...:)


:D

Okay, my apologies. *Pertaining to the analog years that were contained within the post that may not be attributable to the original poster...

Absolved?
ENSO wise 2007 going into 2008 is one of the most similar.

Quoting Cotillion:


:D

Okay, my apologies. *Pertaining to the analog years that were contained within the post that may not be attributable to the original poster...

Absolved?
Absolutely..I have always liked and respected your posts...
Quoting KeysieLife:
Man ths thing is looking impressive for being so far north...



Structure seems to be steadily improving, and its starting to pull some energy from the 25C waters adjacent to it. I would be surprised if NHC doesn't give it a %, but then again its the NHC.. Should have around 2-3 days to develop.

Quoting Skyepony:
ENSO wise 2007 going into 2008 is one of the most similar.



Mitch was 2008, right?
Quoting StAugustineFL:
The Honey Prarie fire in the Okefenokee swamp has now scorched 61,000 acres and counting.

NWS Jax - THE HONEY PRAIRIE FIRE IN THE OKEFENOKEE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE
HAS REACHED OVER 61000 ACRES. A PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
SEND SMOKE PLUMES TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TODAY. AN SPS PRODUCT IS
CURRENTLY ADDRESSING SMOKE-RELATED ISSUES







The sunsets have been a lot more colorful the past 5 days or so, thanks to the smoke.
Quoting muddertracker:


Mitch was 2008, right?
1998.
Quoting muddertracker:


Mitch was 2008, right?


I think Mitch was retired after 1998.
Thanks yall. I knew it was an 8...
Hurricane Ike approaching Texas 2008...
I got it straight now...2008 was the Dolly and Ike show. Dolly was a very interesting storm. I remember the blog during that one..;) Ike..well..that was very different--rightly so.
Radar image of Ike making landfall...
Quoting Jax82:


The sunsets have been a lot more colorful the past 5 days or so, thanks to the smoke.
It's all good. A natural and beneficial process in the swamp, and I love the smell of a campfire.
er,,Gustav was a Bad Cane in 08 as well.

Maybe note the wu hurricane archive.
Hurricane Gustav (pronounced /ˈɡʊstɑːv/) was the second most destructive hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm was the seventh tropical cyclone, third hurricane, and second major hurricane of the season. Gustav caused serious damage and casualties in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba and the United States. Gustav caused at least $6.6 billion (2008 USD) in damage. Gustav triggered the largest evacuation in United States history. More than 3 million people fled the oncoming hurricane.



Quoting Patrap:
er,,Gustav was a Bad Cane in 08 as well.

Maybe note the wu hurricane archive.


Yeah - beat the crap up out of BR, which surprised a lot of people it could do that so far inland being that it was only a Cat 2 at landfall.

Gustav and Ike was some kind of a 1,2 punch for the petrochem industry. I think about everyone was down Sept '08.
.
.
Afternoon folks...... I have a question as to the definition of "Analog years" as it pertains to Hurricanes.. Can someone answer that for me or point me to a good link that would explain it to me..

Thanks
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Afternoon folks...... I have a question as to the definition of "Analog years" as it pertains to Hurricanes.. Can someone answer that for me or point me to a good link that would explain it to me..

Thanks
Past hurricane seasons with atmospheric and oceanic conditions similar to this years hurricane season are called Analog Years.
Quoting hydrus:
Past hurricane seasons with atmospheric and oceanic conditions similar to this years hurricane season are called Analog Years.




To clarify (for my understanding).... 2005 would not have an analog years since it had a record number of storms... correct?
Quoting Cotillion:
I'd probably disagree with your analog years, Hydrus - all are Nino-to-Nina years at least in ENSO terms, which this one won't be.


i thought last year was neutral? What is this year...
Hey hydrus...
Those are some REAL BIG image files you're posting.

Stuff that large should probably be linked so they don't load automatically.

This, of course, is only my OPINION; but, just so you know, people reading on smartphone browsers don't have the same memory overhead that desktop users enjoy.

I'm really not trying to play blog police.

Just mentioning it because once the season hits I'm sure there will be plenty of folks here looking for information and the big stuff like high-res images and animations can cause force closes on mobile browsers. Especially if there are multiple LARGE files that happen to fall on a page.

Please don't take this the wrong way!
Quoting earthlydragonfly:




To clarify (for my understanding).... 2005 would not have an analog years since it had a record number of storms... correct?
No...If conditions this year were similar to the conditions back in 05, they might use it as an analog year.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:To clarify (for my understanding).... 2005 would not have an analog years since it had a record number of storms... correct?

Only with respect to the number of storms, basically you would divide up all major factors in development and tracking over a season and compare each individually. Each year will always be unique to some point, although 2005 does stand in a category of its own.
Quoting hydrus:
No...If conditions this year were similar to the conditions back in 05, they might use it as an analog year.


Ok.... I think Ive got it.. Thank you
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT MON MAY 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN RAIN CHANCES INTO THIS WEEKEND...

...INCREASING LATE WEEK OCEAN SWELL FROM POWERFUL OCEANIC STORM...

TONIGHT...A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT...PROTRUDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF AN INTENSE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WILL
APPROACH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE NORTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS
WINDS VEER TO BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY
PRECIPITATION AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HOLDS STRONG IN THE 850 TO
800 MB LAYER. ENHANCED MARITIME FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COAST AND MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. THERMAL GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC AND PENINSULA WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. INTERIOR AREAS INCLUDING LAKE...
NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA...WESTERN ORANGE...WESTERN OSCEOLA AND WESTERN
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS EASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.

EXTENDED...ECM/GFS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
W/R/T THE PERSISTENCE...SLOW EWD PROGRESSION...AND EVENTUAL DECAY
AND BREAKDOWN OF THE NOAM/WRN ATLC OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS SET UP.

TUE NGT-THU NGT...ECFL WILL REMAIN ON EAST SIDE OF THE BLOCKY
CTRL CONUS RIDGE...WHICH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD DURG THIS TIME
FRAME. SECOND BACK DOOR FRONTAL BDRY WL SAG INTO CTRL FL WED NGT...
PRECEDED BY MODEST INCRS IN MEAN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO
THU. INITIAL MOISTURE INCRS SHOULD RESULT IN SLGT CHC FOR DIURNAL
SHRA/TS AREAWIDE WED...AND THEN RESIDUAL MOISTURE THU SHOULD KEEP
POPS CONFINED TO BDRY INTERACTIONS OVER THE INTR AND NR LAKE OKEE.
POPS 20 AT BEST EACH AFTN. MAXES M-U80S COAST AND L90S INLAND. MINS
IN THE U60S/L70S.

FRI-MON...EWD PROGRESSION OF RIDGE CONTINUES THROUGH FRI...WITH GRDL
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS BLOCK FINALLY BREAKS DOWN
COMPLETELY. WHILE THE ECM IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN THE RATE
AT WHICH HGTS FALL OVER FL...THEY BOTH SHOW INCREASING MEAN MOISTURE
IN A DVLPG SWRLY FLOW PATTERN AS H50 TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SE/FL.
THIS SHOULD PORTEND HIGHER CHCS FOR SHRA/TS...AND FAVORING THE CTRL
AND ERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA OVER THE WEST. IF THE ADVERTISED SOLN
MAINTAINS ITSELF...FULLY EXPECT TO SEE POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND GET
BUMPED WELL INTO THE SCT (40-50) RANGE...AND PSBLY EVEN A BIT HIGHER.
Quoting seminolesfan:
Hey hydrus...
Those are some REAL BIG image files you're posting.

Stuff that large should probably be linked so they don't load automatically.

This, of course, is only my OPINION; but, just so you know, people reading on smartphone browsers don't have the same memory overhead that desktop users enjoy.

I'm really not trying to play blog police.

Just mentioning it because once the season hits I'm sure there will be plenty of folks here looking for information and the big stuff like high-res images and animations can cause force closes on mobile browsers. Especially if there are multiple LARGE files that happen to fall on a page.

Please don't take this the wrong way!
You are right...I will link or try another sight...Thank you. I took off the high rez sat pic...:)
Quoting twhcracker:


i thought last year was neutral? What is this year...


During the season itself, it may have been partly neutral during the crossover. In the end, it was a La Nina season. Link

Not kept up with ENSO so far, but from the looks of it, maybe a neutral season. Might have some El Nino signifiers later on.
Quoting alfabob:

Only with respect to the number of storms, basically you would divide up all major factors in development and tracking over a season and compare each individually. Each year will always be unique to some point, although 2005 does stand in a category of its own.
Yes it does...I hope it stays that way too...:)
Quoting hydrus:
You are right...I will link or try another sight...Thank you.
All good, man. I really do like the stuff you post, its just nice to be able to pick and choose what to load.
Quoting twhcracker:


i thought last year was neutral? What is this year...
Last year was La-Nina year..This season has a shot at being neutral.
Link

Enso Update Link
115. xcool
i seeing neutral no el nino this 2011 hurricane season.-
Quoting muddertracker:
Link

Enso Update Link
Good link..Neutral conditions will likely be present through most of the season.
Thanks for the new AFD, RS.

That's what I was trying to find this morning and wasn't having much luck.

Hopefully those heights won't shoot back up too far after this trough moves out. The NAO looks like it should be heading more positive towards the end of the month and we'll just have to wait and see how the western extent of the Atlantic ridging profile shapes up going into June.
I remember trying to learn about the link between ENSO conditions and hurricanes during the 2005 season. Needless to say, I was VERY confused. Nothing I read made any sense at all...
i am a 60 year old fl panhandle native and i am trying to figure out what the heck anyone could mean by "rainy season". do you mean hurricane season? cause then we get an occasional rainy tropical storm. but the last decade we have only had apocalyptic drought interspersed with an occasional apocalyptic rain. I hate to say it but the most horrible years hurricane wise for louisiana and texas are just drought drought drought for us and i hate em. i guess its the bermuda high, it sets up over the florida panhandle and we suffer. I know drought is bad in texas but right now my pasture grass is supposed to be lush and green and it is brown and crunchy.

I guess you could say april is a rainy season? things did start out looking nice and rainy but now we are frying.

and if you mean the "dog days" type thing where it gets so hot the air shimmers and its 99 percent humidity with 110 temps and a little blow through goes by most every day, it never even saturates the ground, i can kick sand and its only a thin layer. it is a horrible drought here! Come onnnnnn tropical storm. all those terrible tornadoes and storms that blew through here recently only rained hard for 15 minutes tops. all the sandhill lakes are dried totally and they are windows to the floridan aquifer so i know its down really low.
Quoting twhcracker:
i am a 60 year old fl panhandle native and i am trying to figure out what the heck anyone could mean by "rainy season". do you mean hurricane season? cause then we get an occasional rainy tropical storm. but the last decade we have only had apocalyptic drought interspersed with an occasional apocalyptic rain. I hate to say it but the most horrible years hurricane wise for louisiana and texas are just drought drought drought for us and i hate em. i guess its the bermuda high, it sets up over the florida panhandle and we suffer. I know drought is bad in texas but right now my pasture grass is supposed to be lush and green and it is brown and crunchy.

I guess you could say april is a rainy season? things did start out looking nice and rainy but now we are frying.

and if you mean the "dog days" type thing where it gets so hot the air shimmers and its 99 percent humidity with 110 temps and a little blow through goes by most every day, it never even saturates the ground, i can kick sand and its only a thin layer. it is a horrible drought here! Come onnnnnn tropical storm. all those terrible tornadoes and storms that blew through here recently only rained hard for 15 minutes tops. all the sandhill lakes are dried totally and they are windows to the floridan aquifer so i know its down really low.
The best definition of the 'rainy season' is when the dewpoints and temps both remain over 70 during both the day and night.
Quoting muddertracker:
I remember trying to learn about the link between ENSO conditions and hurricanes during the 2005 season. Needless to say, I was VERY confused. Nothing I read made any sense at all...
If you are fortunate enough to have the right person explain it to you, its not that bad at all. If you have the wrong person try to put it layman terms, confusion is a real possibility.
Quoting muddertracker:
I remember trying to learn about the link between ENSO conditions and hurricanes during the 2005 season. Needless to say, I was VERY confused. Nothing I read made any sense at all...

Of all the seasons to learn, you tried in 2005, one of the most extraordinary seasons to date. (Thankfully, we haven't had an extraordinary season on the same scale since then)
Quoting hydrus:
The analog years for this hurricane season are 1964, 1998 and 2010. Though 2010 is an analog year, and only T.S.Bonnie made a direct hit on the U.S., they are still forecasting several U.S. landfalls. I believe this to be correct. I also believe storms this years will be mostly slow movers and more erratic, making long range forecasts more difficult. This also increases the chance of a powerful hurricane making landfall in our part of the world. jmo..Gulf moisture is increasing...


2010 does not seem like a good analog year, considering that it came off of an El Nino with a much greater amount of heat content in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere across the worldwide tropics.

Also, since two back-to-back hurricane seasons are almost never similar (except sometimes 2nd- and 3rd-year ENSO events), last year naturally doesn't seem like the best choice.
Quoting seminolesfan:
The best definition of the 'rainy season' is when the dewpoints and temps both remain over 70 during both the day and night.


well does it like, uhmn.... RAIN?
By the way, the deep cold sub-surface anomalies in the eastern Pacific have restrengthened since the last ENSO update. Until the western Pacific warm pool reverses from warm subsurface anomalies to cool anomalies, it is unlikely that El Nino will take over. The La Nina still has a good chance of coming back this fall.

April 27th (left)...............May 8th (right):

Quoting twhcracker:
i am a 60 year old fl panhandle native and i am trying to figure out what the heck anyone could mean by "rainy season". do you mean hurricane season? cause then we get an occasional rainy tropical storm. but the last decade we have only had apocalyptic drought interspersed with an occasional apocalyptic rain. I hate to say it but the most horrible years hurricane wise for louisiana and texas are just drought drought drought for us and i hate em. i guess its the bermuda high, it sets up over the florida panhandle and we suffer. I know drought is bad in texas but right now my pasture grass is supposed to be lush and green and it is brown and crunchy.

I guess you could say april is a rainy season? things did start out looking nice and rainy but now we are frying.

and if you mean the "dog days" type thing where it gets so hot the air shimmers and its 99 percent humidity with 110 temps and a little blow through goes by most every day, it never even saturates the ground, i can kick sand and its only a thin layer. it is a horrible drought here! Come onnnnnn tropical storm. all those terrible tornadoes and storms that blew through here recently only rained hard for 15 minutes tops. all the sandhill lakes are dried totally and they are windows to the floridan aquifer so i know its down really low.


It seems like most of the Gulf Coast is "extra crunchy" right now, and quite honestly, that scares me. When droughts get this deep into May, the summertime pattern doesn't lend itself to soaking rains, unless you count a tropical system.
Quoting Levi32:
By the way, the deep cold sub-surface anomalies in the eastern Pacific have restrengthened since the last ENSO update. Until the western Pacific warm pool reverses from warm subsurface anomalies to cool anomalies, it is unlikely that El Nino will take over. The La Nina still has a good chance of coming back this fall.

April 27th (left)...............May 8th (right):


Are the deep warm anomalies on the western side normal for a La Nina, though? I thought those tended to happen more with El Nino, and then move east as part of Kelvin waves.
Quoting jeffs713:


Are the deep warm anomalies on the western side normal for a La Nina, though? I thought those tended to happen more with El Nino, and then move east as part of Kelvin waves.


No. It is a very typical signature of a La Nina. During a La Nina, stronger than normal easterly trade winds push all the warm water to the west, piling it up in the western Pacific, mostly in the sub-surface due to downwelling. It works the same way that Kelvin waves pile up warm water on the eastern side of the Pacific.

Here's an equatorial cross-section during the height of the 2008 La Nina:

Quoting jeffs713:


When droughts get this deep into May, the summertime pattern doesn't lend itself to soaking rains, unless you count a tropical system.


Even in normal seasons, most of our big rain events usually have already happened by this time of year. I'm out in Hockley, and I put up a new rain guage over a month ago and it hasn't seen a drop. The previous one got full of spider webs and dead bugs. On the bright side, at least the fire ants are dormant.
Quoting twhcracker:


well does it like, uhmn.... RAIN?
Well, if you have high surface temps and a moist column all it take is to throw in a seabreeze collision or some other initiation point and then...thunderstorms.
Quoting Levi32:


No. It is a very typical signature of a La Nina. During a La Nina, stronger than normal easterly trade winds push all the warm water to the west, piling it up in the western Pacific. It works the same way that Kelvin waves pile up warm water on the eastern side of the Pacific.

Here's an equatorial cross-section during the height of the 2008 La Nina:



Gotcha. I understand LaNina until we start talking about anomalies at depth, and then I'm more or less lost and drooling on myself.
Quoting bluheelrtx:


Even in normal seasons, most of our big rain events usually have already happened by this time of year. I'm out in Hockley, and I put up a new rain guage over a month ago and it hasn't seen a drop. The previous one got full of spider webs and dead bugs. On the bright side, at least the fire ants are dormant.

Yep.

I don't mind periodic rains for fire ants, though... they come to the surface, where they can meet Mr. Ortho Orthene.

That said... my wife and I washed our cars 2 weeks ago, and it STILL didn't rain. A pattern that can resist two freshly-washed cars is a very stout one. (I'm up in Tomball)
And look at how aggressive the GFS and the ECMWF are getting on the MJO together:

Mischief may be afoot in both the eastern Pacific and Caribbean during the last 10 days of May.



The Atlantic is looking typical so far of a May that usually precedes active seasons. If this pattern holds of low pressure in the north Atlantic (negative NAO) extending south through the tropics, one can bet on an above-average year.

Quoting Levi32:
And look at how aggressive the GFS and the ECMWF are getting on the MJO together:

Mischief may be afoot in both the eastern Pacific and Caribbean during the last 10 days of May.





Indeed, the daily SOI (right-hand column) has dropped as the MJO has entered phases 5 and 6, indicating a wave of low pressure propagating eastward. This will reach the eastern Pacific and western Caribbean in 8-12 days.

Quoting Levi32:
And look at how aggressive the GFS and the ECMWF are getting on the MJO together:

Mischief may be afoot in both the eastern Pacific and Caribbean during the last 10 days of May.



Wow. Those are similar. The ECMWF is more aggressive moving it into quad 8, but even with that difference, the overall pattern is near-identical, which is unusual.
Quoting jeffs713:
Wow. Those are similar. The ECMWF is more aggressive moving it into quad 8, but even with that difference, the overall pattern is near-identical, which is unusual.


Yeah it looks as if people from TX to FL are going to benefit from this over the next few weeks as the wx pattern gets over-hauled. It does appear that here in FL things are about to change and we will welcome that change as it has been dry over the last month.
It also appears with neutral conditions coming that the gulf coast states and including FL are in for a very wet summer that could last well into October. As some have said we really haven't had nuetral conditions in quite some time. The bad side is some of this rain will be associated with tropical systems.
CMC 240-hour from last night:

will that thing up by rhode island be a north wester?
Quoting Levi32:
CMC 240-hour from last night:



Yeah I saw that but I wonder if the CMC is back to it's old tricks in spinning up everything in the long range.
Quoting RastaSteve:
It also appears with neutral conditions coming that the gulf coast states and including FL are in for a very wet summer that could last well into October. As some have said we really haven't had nuetral conditions in quite some time. The bad side is some of this rain will be associated with tropical systems.


We had neutral conditions coming off a La Nina in 2008, so the rainy season might be very similar to that year for FL.
Quoting Levi32:
The Atlantic is looking typical so far of a May that usually precedes active seasons. If this pattern holds of low pressure in the north Atlantic (negative NAO) extending south through the tropics, one can bet on an above-average year.



A Negative NAO should allow more storms to recurve east of the U.S., BUT there will be times when the east coast trof weakens and/or a TC forms farther westward (in the very favorable for development Caribbean) so there will still be a high risk of impact across the U.S. this year.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


We had neutral conditions coming off a La Nina in 2008, so the rainy season might be very similar to that year for FL.


Yeah Fay! I picked up 17.44" with Fay in 3 days. Mind you our average for any given year is about 50". Flooding along the St. Johns was at historic levels as a result of Fay.
Here are my numbers for this season 17/10/4 (which includes 1 Cat 5), and 180% ACE. With a weakening La Nina and neutral conditions, the vertical shear should be lower than last year. SSTs are above average and near the records of last year and the west Africa monsoon trof and east Pacific monsoon trof are both already active. Therefore,I see no reason why this year should be much different than last year, except that we should see U.S. hurricane landfalls this year. Last year was a the second year in a row that we did not have a U.S. hurricane landfall. That has happened several times before, but we have never gone three years in a row without a U.S. hurricane landfall. So the odds are against us this year.

Quoting hurricane23:
Here are my numbers for this season 17/10/4 (which includes 1 Cat 5), and 180% ACE. With a weakening La Nina and neutral conditions, the vertical shear should be lower than last year. SSTs are above average and near the records of last year and the west Africa monsoon trof and east Pacific monsoon trof are both already active. Therefore,I see no reason why this year should be much different than last year, except that we should see U.S. hurricane landfalls this years. Last year was a the second year in a row that we did not have a U.S. hurricane landfall. That has happened several times before, but we have never gone three years in a row without a U.S. hurricane landfall. So the odds are against us this year.



Hey "killer," good to see you.
WTI Crude Oil
$102.70 ▲5.52
Cooking in the middle of the country

Laredo, Texas (Airport)
106 °F Clear
Humidity: 22%
Dew Point: 60 °F
Wind: 21 mph from the SE

G'evening, all; perfect timing I see, too, the elite bloggers are all on, ^_^.
Quoting Levi32:


2010 does not seem like a good analog year, considering that it came off of an El Nino with a much greater amount of heat content in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere across the worldwide tropics.

Also, since two back-to-back hurricane seasons are almost never similar (except sometimes 2nd- and 3rd-year ENSO events), last year naturally doesn't seem like the best choice.
I agree. Those years where from a hurricane prediction sight. I have not had time to research data that would help me in estimating the number of storms this year. I do believe it will be active, and there will be more than one U.S. landfall. Slow and erratic moving storms might occur. In neutral years, the steering currents seem a bit weaker to me, leaving storms meander a bit. jmo
Drought getting ready to start a whole new level now, summer heat banging down door. I can only pray for a tropical storm in June to quench the dead, parched, stifling, landscape with water some day.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Drought getting ready to start a whole new level now, summer heat banging down door. I can only pray for a tropical storm in June to quench the dead, parched, stifling, landscape with water some day.
This would be very helpful. To far out in time for sure.
OMG! if only this could happen


Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astrological Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
TROPICAL STORM BEBENG (AERE)
5:00 AM PhST May 10 2011
====================================

Tropical Storm "BEBENG" " is moving away from the country in a north northeast direction.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Bebeng (AERE) located at 19.5°N 122.9°E or 120 km southeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 9 knots.

Storm Signal #1
==============

Luzon Region
------------
1.Cagayan
2.Apayao
3.Batanes
4.Babuyan
5.Calayan

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Tropical Storm "Bebeng" is expected to bring rains over the western section of Luzon. Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
Quoting hurricane23:
Here are my numbers for this season 17/10/4 (which includes 1 Cat 5), and 180% ACE. With a weakening La Nina and neutral conditions, the vertical shear should be lower than last year. SSTs are above average and near the records of last year and the west Africa monsoon trof and east Pacific monsoon trof are both already active. Therefore,I see no reason why this year should be much different than last year, except that we should see U.S. hurricane landfalls this year. Last year was a the second year in a row that we did not have a U.S. hurricane landfall. That has happened several times before, but we have never gone three years in a row without a U.S. hurricane landfall. So the odds are against us this year.



That is a good in brief discussion of what the upcomming season may look like that I agree with. How do you see the NE Caribbean in terms of potential strikes as I live in one of the islands? (PR) I think it depends on the NAO right?
By controlling the position of the Azores high, the NAO also influences the direction of general storm paths for major North Atlantic tropical cyclones: a position of the Azores high farther to the south tends to force storms into the Gulf of Mexico, whereas a northern position allows them to track up the North American Atlantic Coast.[2]

As paleotempestological research has shown, few major hurricanes struck the Gulf coast during 3000–1400 BC and again during the most recent millennium. These quiescent intervals were separated by a hyperactive period during 1400 BC and 1000 AD, when the Gulf coast was struck frequently by catastrophic hurricanes and their landfall probabilities increased by 3–5 times.Totally not wiki ;)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is a good in brief discussion of what the upcomming season may look like that I agree with. How do you see the NE Caribbean in terms of potential strikes as I live in one of the islands? PR) I think it depends of the NAO right?
PR gets hit every 3 to 4 years, so we should expect something this year.
Quoting hurricane23:
Here are my numbers for this season 17/10/4 (which includes 1 Cat 5), and 180% ACE. With a weakening La Nina and neutral conditions, the vertical shear should be lower than last year. SSTs are above average and near the records of last year and the west Africa monsoon trof and east Pacific monsoon trof are both already active. Therefore,I see no reason why this year should be much different than last year, except that we should see U.S. hurricane landfalls this year. Last year was a the second year in a row that we did not have a U.S. hurricane landfall. That has happened several times before, but we have never gone three years in a row without a U.S. hurricane landfall. So the odds are against us this year.

Couldn't agree more, my numbers are the same as yours with the exception that I think we'll see one more major.
Quoting Gearsts:
By controlling the position of the Azores high, the NAO also influences the direction of general storm paths for major North Atlantic tropical cyclones: a position of the Azores high farther to the south tends to force storms into the Gulf of Mexico, whereas a northern position allows them to track up the North American Atlantic Coast.[2]

As paleotempestological research has shown, few major hurricanes struck the Gulf coast during 3000–1400 BC and again during the most recent millennium. These quiescent intervals were separated by a hyperactive period during 1400 BC and 1000 AD, when the Gulf coast was struck frequently by catastrophic hurricanes and their landfall probabilities increased by 3–5 times.Totally not wiki ;)
paleowhat...:)
Quoting SunshineStateCarnage:
G'evening, all; perfect timing I see, too, the elite bloggers are all on, ^_^.

Yep, we are.

heheheheh
Quoting hydrus:
paleowhat...:)

Yeah!
That's 5 four-letter words strung together.
Disgraceful!
:):) Good one though.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Couldn't agree more, my numbers are the same as yours with the exception that I think we'll see one more major.
15/9/2.Where is that shear graph that has been posted here in past entries?
Quoting Gearsts:
PR gets hit every 3 to 4 years, so we should expect something this year.
The last time they took a direct hit was Georges in 98. So they have had a nice lull.
Thanks for bringing the El Nino conspiracies to an end in terms of this year's upcoming hurricane season, Levi. Cough, cough, ''SkyPony'', cough, cough! People need to accept the fact that this year's season is gonna take place under neutral conditions, ^_^. Which should equate to a severe hurricane season, =). You're always the voice of reason when you speak in here, and for that, I appreciate you, my friend....
Quoting hydrus:
The last time they took a direct hit was Georges in 98. So they have had a nice lull.
2004 Jeanne and 2007 sub tropical storm Olga
I can see the U.S not being so lucky this season. We might see a few hurricane landfalls possibly one major hurricane landfall.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Drought getting ready to start a whole new level now, summer heat banging down door. I can only pray for a tropical storm in June to quench the dead, parched, stifling, landscape with water some day.

OH, I so agree :O)
Quoting SunshineStateCarnage:
Thanks for bringing the El Nino conspiracies to an end in terms of this year's upcoming hurricane season, Levi. Cough, cough, ''SkyPony'', cough, cough! People need to accept the fact that this year's season is gonna take place under neutral conditions, ^_^. Which should equate to a severe hurricane season, =). You're always the voice of reason when you speak in here, and for that, I appreciate you, my friend....
I fear that our region of the world is in for a tropical beating...Naturally I hope that it does not happen..Some of the necessary factors for such an event seem to be coming together.
Quoting Gearsts:
2004 Jeanne and 2007 sub tropical storm Olga
My bad..I meant cat-1 or higher.
Quoting hydrus:
I fear that our region of the world is in for a tropical beating...Naturally I hope that it does not happen..Some of the necessary factors for such an event seem to be coming together.

Please expound.
Quoting Gearsts:
15/9/2.Where is that shear graph that has been posted here in past entries?
CIMSS?
Quoting SunshineStateCarnage:
You're def. part of that list as well, Pottery! BTW, how's everything down there by the ABC islands tonight? Getting ready for the season, I'd presume?

Yes Indeed.
While I have no idea what to expect this season, I am assuming for the worst, and hoping for the best. For everyone.
It has been a very peculiar DrySeason with plenty of rain.
I expect we will get a very wet RainySeason, which will mean floods and landslides if that happens.
I am looking at the ITCZ, and the moisture across the Trop. Atl. and the relative lack of Sahara Dust, SST's etc.
The combination of those things (and others of course) is how I forecast the rainy season here.
Looks to be a wet one coming....
"Its getting Hot! Hot! Hot!"
Quoting SunshineStateCarnage:
G'evening, all; perfect timing I see, too, the elite bloggers are all on, ^_^.
I haven't been on in months.
I see I came back at the perfect time.:)
Quoting hydrus:
My bad..I meant cat-1 or higher.
Oh ok ^^
Quoting SunshineStateCarnage:


Really? May you please further elaborate upon that, Hydrus? I'd appreciate it. I know that your not trying to be an alarmist or anything like that. But people need to know, since the season is now about 3 weeks away.
I am the furthest thing from a doomcaster, please believe that. I have not fully researched the data that is in from last year. I have not had time to finish examining the conditions that are out there right now. I will tell you that neutral years seem to have more landfalls. From 1900 to 1998, there were 63 major hurricanes striking the U.S., 5 during El Niño, 37 during neutral conditions, and 22 during La Nina. Those numbers are at the very least concerning. I do realize however that statistics are only numbers that have no control over actual events.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
CIMSS?
Was a graph for the average shear for each month :(
Quoting hurricanealley:
"Its getting Hot! Hot! Hot!"
Is there 1 from last month same day to compared?
Quoting RastaSteve:
It also appears with neutral conditions coming that the gulf coast states and including FL are in for a very wet summer that could last well into October. As some have said we really haven't had nuetral conditions in quite some time. The bad side is some of this rain will be associated with tropical systems.


neutral years usually do means it gets very active in Florida.

As far as the near term,I would expect a sea breeze storm regime developing later this week into the weekend. Computer outputs show PW's near 1.75 later in the period and that combined with cold air aloft should lead to some sea breeze storms. Nothing widespread it appears right now. Hopefully that will change, a wet period would be great. But even if its just a few afternoon storms that's alright, we'll take it.



The one thing is though, computers models also show a front sagging into the area at the end of the period. Lets hope it stalls to the north to keep the dry air away and allow moisture to build more into next week.
Quoting Gearsts:
Was a graph for the average shear for each month :(
I know which one you're talking about, I need to look through my 250+ bookmarks though, lol.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I know which one you're talking about, I need to look through my 250+ bookmarks though, lol.
lol
Quoting Gearsts:
By controlling the position of the Azores high, the NAO also influences the direction of general storm paths for major North Atlantic tropical cyclones: a position of the Azores high farther to the south tends to force storms into the Gulf of Mexico, whereas a northern position allows them to track up the North American Atlantic Coast.[2]

As paleotempestological research has shown, few major hurricanes struck the Gulf coast during 3000%u20131400 BC and again during the most recent millennium. These quiescent intervals were separated by a hyperactive period during 1400 BC and 1000 AD, when the Gulf coast was struck frequently by catastrophic hurricanes and their landfall probabilities increased by 3%u20135 times.Totally not wiki ;)


Wow, I learned a new word today =)
Paleotempestology is the study of past tropical cyclone activity by means of geological proxies as well as historical documentary records. The term was coined by Kerry Emanuel.LOL
Quoting SunshineStateCarnage:
G'evening, all; perfect timing I see, too, the elite bloggers are all on, ^_^.





hey look its JFV and you been reported
LinkO,O
Quoting Tazmanian:





hey look its JFV and you been reported


Oh man not again :(
The season hasn't even started yet:(
i say some this dont get it when some banneds you this dont keep comeing back with new IDs
Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh man not again :(
The season hasn't even started yet:(



yup JFV is back with yet other name


and you no what i find that drive me nuts when some one bannds you you this dont keep comeing back on with new IDs too bypass your banned it even in the rules
Quoting Tazmanian:



yup JFV is back with yet other name


and you no what i find that drive me nuts when some one bannds you you this dont keep comeing back on with new IDs too bypass your banned it even in the rules

How do you know it's really who you say it is?
if i was the Admin of this site if you got in a banned be for i mean the kind of banned you can no longer post on the blog site and you come back with a new ID you be IP banned for some in
Quoting cat5hurricane:

How do you know it's really who you say it is?




watch the way he talks and all ways look at the end of his words he likes puting this , ^_^.
Quoting Tazmanian:
if i was the Admin of this site if you got in a banned be for i mean the kind of banned you can no longer post on the blog site and you come back with a new ID you be IP banned for some in

What is an IP ban? Do you know what that is exactly. Please explain. I want to learn.
Dr. Masters says that "the great Mississippi flood of 2011 will give the Old River Control Structure its most severe test ever."

That statement requires an apples and oranges comparison. A lot of changes have been made to the ORCS since 1973. If they have desired effect, this test should be less severe actually. In 1973 the structure was in danger of collapsing. Hopefully such a dangerous situation will not come to pass, and the structure's foundations will remain secure.
Quoting SunshineStateCarnage:
You've been reported for starting up problems with me, Taz! Geeze, why do you always do this? Is it asking for too much for you to behave diplomatically in here? And no, your mental retardation ''DOES NOT'' justify your behavior, just saying! Anyhow, on to lighter things, Levi, how did your first year of college go, my friend? Are they challenging you enough, up there? You must be so good at math, I'd imagine, ^_^.




reported right back
Quoting Tazmanian:




watch the way he talks and all ways look at the end of his words he likes puting this , ^_^.


^_^
204. xcool
lmaoo
Quoting cat5hurricane:

What is an IP ban? Do you know what that is exactly. Please explain. I want to learn.



here you go


this is what JFV is doing with comeing back with new IDs he be geting a IP banned

IP Ban - People who repeatedly circumvent bans will be the recipients of an IP ban, which blocks access to the entire site.
Katrina had no effect on the OCRS. It is well inland and well west of the track taken by Katrina.
Complete Update






Quoting hurricanealley:
"Its getting Hot! Hot! Hot!"


I know its getting hot, thats easy to tell when the inside temp in a warehouse is ten degrees hotter than it was on friday.
Can someone give me a good idea as to when the next good rain chance for South Florida is? We already have a 27,00+ acre brush fire going on the west coast in Naples. So any information we can get is wanted.
And the forums turns in to a fight, from a peaceful tropical juicy conversation :(
Neapolitan, you around? We need a rainfall update for Naples.
Quoting Gearsts:
And the forums turns in to a fight, from a peaceful tropical juicy conversation :(

Nothing peaceful with tropical weather. Not in the stuff you all were talking about at least. :-)
Quoting SunshineStateCarnage:
You've been reported for starting up problems with me, Taz! Geeze, why do you always do this? Is it asking for too much for you to behave diplomatically in here? And no, your mental retardation ''DOES NOT'' justify your behavior, just saying! Anyhow, on to lighter things, Levi, how did your first year of college go, my friend? Are they challenging you enough, up there? You must be so good at math, I'd imagine, ^_^.
Totally uncalled for.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Nothing peaceful with tropical weather. Not in the stuff you all were talking about at least. :-)
What do you mean?
Quoting Gearsts:
What do you mean?

Nothing peaceful about landfalling hurricanes.
Quoting Tazmanian:



thank you that was Totally uncalled for on what he said


i want JFV banned ASPA all so did you reported that stormwatcherCI

Deep breath. Relax.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I know which one you're talking about, I need to look through my 250+ bookmarks though, lol


Find it yet?
hey hey guys be nice

hey stormwatcher how are long time no hear
Are ya'll looking for shear~ current vs climo? These here?


Hey Carnage..
Quoting TomTaylor:


Find it yet?
Just found it. Pretty sure this is it...scroll down towards the bottom: Link.
Quoting Skyepony:
Are ya'll looking for shear~ current vs climo? These here?


Hey Carnage..
YESS!! gona bookmark it add it to fav and creat shortcut :D
Quoting Skyepony:
Are ya'll looking for shear~ current vs climo? These here?


Hey Carnage..
You had to beat me by a couple of seconds...LOL!
Looking through that link..Vertical Instability has been below climo across the basin.
Quoting Skyepony:
Are ya'll looking for shear~ current vs climo? These here?


Hey Carnage..


Evening ma'am.
Miami~ sorry, Tom got me curious to look at it.

Pcola~ SDO was one of the most awesome launches, destroying a sun dog.. The images that are coming from it are incredible.
The trough forecast to drop more rain in the Mississippi Valley region is bad enough. The next trough looks like it could produce much more rain than the current system moving towards them.Link
Quoting Skyepony:
Miami~ sorry, Tom got me curious to look at it.

Pcola~ SDO was one of the most awesome launches, destroying a sun dog.. The images that are coming from it are incredible.
LOL, it's all good. Hope you've been doing well this off-season.
Quoting Skyepony:
Miami~ sorry, Tom got me curious to look at it.

Pcola~ SDO was one of the most awesome launches, destroying a sun dog.. The images that are coming from it are incredible.


I remember seeing the pictures of it. (if I'm thinking of the right pictures you posted) Must have been a sight to behold.
Hi Robert!


Another minor aftershock in Christchurch.

Did WU change to a fuzzy blue inverted colour logo?
Not real Taz. Taz been hacked.
I do hope this area of moisture does not end up over the valley..If it does though, Texas will get some heavy rains.
Pottery iz gettin wet..
Potential analog years for 2011 AHS:

2008 2004 1999 1996 1993 1989 1984 1974 1978 1965 1964 1961
Storm off New England...
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Potential analog years for 2011 AHS:

2008 2004 1999 1996 1993 1989 1984 1974 1978 1965 1964 1961
Please leave out 08, 04, 1965, 64, 89 and 61..tia..:)
Gotta love JFV. You know, one of the blog admins just needs to post his information. As in his name, address, etc..Can easily be done through his IP address. After going around ban after ban, admin is totally justified in doing that since he continues to break the rules of this website.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Gotta love JFV. You know, one of the blog admins just needs to post his information. As in his name, address, etc..Can easily be done through his IP address. After going around ban after ban, admin is totally justified in doing that since he continues to break the rules of this website.

Some people have more than one computer.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Some people have more than one computer.


Ok? Still doesn't mean you can't get his information.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey hey guys be nice

hey stormwatcher how are long time no hear
Still hanging in. Heat is terrible and we are not getting any rain up this way.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Ok? Still doesn't mean you can't get his information.

You could and you can't.
Tornado Warning with this cell in extreme NW Nebraska. Tornado on the ground.

Important stats about selected analog years:

1/3 had a hurricane directly impacting Florida
1/3 had a hurricane directly impacting New Orleans
1/6 had a hurricane directly impacting Haiti
1/12 had a hurricane directly impacting the Northeast United States
More than half had a hurricane hitting the Carolinas
1/6 had a hurricane directly impacting Atlantic Canada
3/4 had at least one US landfalling major hurricane
1/4 had a category five hurricane
Average number of storms retired: 2
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You could and you can't.


All I'm saying is that something more strict than a ban needs to be done. Trolls are the main reason I refuse to pay a subscription on this site. I realize that most discussion areas on the internet are going to have trolls, but it gets ridiculous here and it hardly seems like anything is done about it other than a ban. Maybe that's all that can be done and maybe I expect too much. All I know is that another website I use is a lot better than this one as far as being civil goes.
Quoting MississippiWx:


All I'm saying is that something more strict than a ban needs to be done. Trolls are the main reason I refuse to pay a subscription on this site. I realize that most discussion areas on the internet are going to have trolls, but it gets ridiculous here and it hardly seems like anything is done about it other than a ban. Maybe that's all that can be done and maybe I expect too much. All I know is that another website I use is a lot better than this one as far as being civil goes.
there is no such thing as being civil.It's called the Internet.
Quoting MississippiWx:


All I'm saying is that something more strict than a ban needs to be done. Trolls are the main reason I refuse to pay a subscription on this site. I realize that most discussion areas on the internet are going to have trolls, but it gets ridiculous here and it hardly seems like anything is done about it other than a ban. Maybe that's all that can be done and maybe I expect too much. All I know is that another website I use is a lot better than this one as far as being civil goes.

Ok, I hear ya.
Quoting InconceivableF6:
there is no such thing as being civil.It's called the Internet.


LOL...Probably the most true statement ever on this site.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Ok, I hear ya.


Yeah, my ignore list is infinitely long and it still isn't enough during the heart of hurricane season. :-P

But I guess that's just how the ball rolls. I guess the best thing for us as bloggers to do is keep on posting our info and use that ignore feature when we need it.
There is no way to ban someone ip ban will not work you can log on from public hotspot or aircrack a wireless connection or use a proxy server
Quoting MississippiWx:
Gotta love JFV. You know, one of the blog admins just needs to post his information. As in his name, address, etc..Can easily be done through his IP address. After going around ban after ban, admin is totally justified in doing that since he continues to break the rules of this website.


He may be a troll, but I don't think it justifies posting his personal data on the site. What are you going to do, troll back? Make his life horrible? That makes you no better than him.
Lets go Nashville Predators.......!!!!
preds need a goal to tie it up if they don't win it's golf time
Warm weather coming up for D.C. I'm excited. Even the humidity is rising, as I'm starting to ingest that great spring smell from the shortleaf and loblolly pines.
Evening all....A little excitement there for a blog or 2.....keeps the circulation going at least....
Memphis flood looks like it's going to crest just 6" shy of the all-time record.
Go Grizzlies
did the SunshineStateCarnage get lock up
Quoting Tazmanian:
did the SunshineStateCarnage get lock up


Taz, glad ya got your old name back.....didnt know what to call you before...T&T..just didnt sound right....anyway, lets hope all is good for you now :)
Some nasty weather in western Nebraska and South Dakota this evening. Some nice hooks and classic vortex signatures there. Several Tornado Warnings:

Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Taz, glad ya got your old name back.....didnt know what to call you before...T&T..just didnt sound right....anyway, lets hope all is good for you now :)


Taz changed names? /leaves in december and comes back in may
Quoting hydrus:
Pottery iz gettin wet..

Not yet.
Been threatening all day....
269. Tygor
Like the idea from above about Texas getting some rain. Not a drop of rain in over 4 months in San Antonio, and it's really starting to affect things. Most of us assume a tropical storm is the only way to get rain at this point.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Taz, glad ya got your old name back.....didnt know what to call you before...T&T..just didnt sound right....anyway, lets hope all is good for you now :)



it is thanks
Quoting Tygor:
Like the idea from above about Texas getting some rain. Not a drop of rain in over 4 months in San Antonio, and it's really starting to affect things. Most of us assume a tropical storm is the only way to get rain at this point.


Believe me....we're all rooting for ya'll dry Texans.....rain, rain, rain come on......
Uhh, can someone tell me what happened? Seemed like we had a troll attack.
Quoting pottery:

Not yet.
Been threatening all day....


Hello Pottery, good to see ya. Locals here in Ms seem pretty confident the levees are gonna hold up pretty good.....hoping they're right....now is just wait and see time....
274. xcool

WSI: Multiple US Hurricane Landfalls Expected in 2011
Weather Authority Expects Another Active Season with Gulf Coast Under Greatest Threat .......
Outperforming other, primary, public forecasters on named storms by 25% since 2006, WSI (Weather Services International) predicts 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater). These 2011 forecast numbers are above the long-term (1950-2010) averages of 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes and match the averages from the more active recent period (1995-2010) of 15/8/4. The current forecast is a reduction from the previous forecast made in December for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.

“We have reduced our forecast numbers to ‘active-normal’ levels since the recent North Atlantic weather pattern has resulted in a cooling of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Further, the La Nina event weakened a bit more quickly than we first expected, reducing the possibility of a favorable wind shear environment during the upcoming tropical season,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “We do expect another active season in 2011, although not to the level of 2005 or 2010. However, while we expect less overall activity this year, we do expect a much more impactful season along the US coastline. The US has been spared from any landfalling hurricanes since 2008, and the hurricane drought in 2009 and 2010 is relatively rare in the historical record. In fact, the US has not had a three-year stretch without a hurricane landfall since the 1860s. Further, 80 percent of all years in the historical dataset have had at least one hurricane landfall in the US. Our recent good fortune in avoiding landfalling hurricanes is not likely to last.”

Crawford also indicated that the Gulf Coast was under a significant threat for hurricane landfall in the upcoming season.

“The lack of US landfalls in 2010 was primarily due to a persistent western Atlantic trough that essentially protected the US East Coast from any direct hits. We do not expect this feature to be in place this year during late summer and fall when most tropical storms occur. Further, the Gulf and Caribbean sea surface temperatures are particularly warm this year, and we expect more development in these regions and less in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Storms developing in the Gulf and Caribbean are a much greater threat to make landfall along the US coast than those that develop off the coast of Africa. For this reason, and since our hurricane landfall prediction model suggests sharply increased chances of US landfall in 2011, especially in the western Gulf states, we expect two or three landfalling hurricanes this season. This is not particularly unusual, since historically 43% of years have had multiple hurricane landfalls. The forecast numbers from our model are quite similar to those prior to the 2008 season, when Hurricanes Dolly, Gustav, and Ike impacted Louisiana and Texas.”

Energy traders, insurance professionals and risk managers look to WSI for accurate, timely weather information around the clock and across the globe. The next seasonal forecast update, which will include forecasts for summer temperatures, will be issued on May 24. The next update for the 2011 tropical season will be released on May 25.

About WSI
WSI (Weather Services International) is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, insurance, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital. More information about WSI can be found at http://www.wsi.com.
Quoting eddy12:
There is no way to ban someone ip ban will not work you can log on from public hotspot or aircrack a wireless connection or use a proxy server
Getting around an IP ban is trivial for anyone with even a small knowledge of networking protocols. I agree with eddy 100% on this. Sometimes, depending on your ISP, it can be as simple as power cycling your modem and you can get a new dynamic IP assigned to you. If you get into MAC spoofing there is another avenue...easy peasy.
Quoting caneswatch:
Uhh, can someone tell me what happened? Seemed like we had a troll attack.

Nah. It's all good.
Quoting caneswatch:
Uhh, can someone tell me what happened? Seemed like we had a troll attack.
Hey it's almost "the season". Everybody's doing their warm up exercises. Spring training you know.
empty space created
preds can go play golf now congrats orca on your canucks
so, have we had a 1st tropical wave emerge yet...
don't think we have, and what's the word on pre-season development.
That low in the N Atlantic sure is pretty. Messing with shipping for sure.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey it's almost "the season". Everybody's doing their warm up exercises. Spring training you know.
EPAC starts in 4 days won't be long now bring it on
Quoting Seastep:
That low in the N Atlantic sure is pretty. Messing with shipping for sure.
pretty now monster later

Quoting cat5hurricane:

Nah. It's all good.


I can see that now LOL
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey it's almost "the season". Everybody's doing their warm up exercises. Spring training you know.


Yep, only a few more weeks before "the season." Someone got a hit though LOL
Evening everyone. I see preseason has started. We need to have a fantasy league, with full draft, on who gets the most "going crazy" points. Extra points for picking the correct amount of responses to each of the trolls posts.
Quoting RIDGES:
Evening everyone. I see preseason has started. We need to have a fantasy league, with full draft, on who gets the most "going crazy" points. Extra points for picking the correct amount of responses to each of the trolls posts.


XD someone needs to organize this.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
pretty now monster later



monster later....Keeper, ya want to expound on that a little ?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
so, have we had a 1st tropical wave emerge yet...
don't think we have, and what's the word on pre-season development.
. Possible, probably not until' about 2 weeks from now and the week before season starts.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


monster later....Keeper, ya want to expound on that a little ?
when ya see em spin like that later in the hurricane season could very well be a monster barreling down
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
when ya see em spin like that later in the hurricane season could very well be a monster barreling down



Ahhh, gotcha.....but even now looks a little intimidating..
Are you guys aware that there is a new fire at the Fukishima power plant?

http://leakspinner.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/zk 9fe.jpg

Link

Why is this not on the front page of every single newspaper in the world? Why are official agencies not measuring from many places around the world and reporting on what is going on in terms of contamination every single day since this disaster happened? Radioactivity has been being released now for almost two full months! Even small amounts when released continuously, and in fact especially continuous exposure to small amounts of radioactivity, can cause all kinds of increases in cancers.

One reason no one is reporting on this nor allowed to go inside the exclusion zone nor even measure the waters off of Japan is because of the following compiled by Makiko Segawa, a staff writer at the Shingetsu News Agency. She prepared this report from Fukushima and Tokyo for www.japanfocus.org:

Freelance journalists and foreign media are pursuing the facts, even going into the radiation exclusion zone. However, surprisingly, the Japan government continues to prevent freelance journalists and overseas media from gaining access to official press conferences at the prime minister's house and government

06z GFS forecasts a very favorable upper wind environment across much of the eastern Pacific approximately one week from now (May 16), with a pronounced light easterly shearing regime:



Extrapolation of this forecast, along with continued warming of the equatorial Eastern Pacific, lends credence to the likelihood that such conditions will stick around throughout the month. In short, if any disturbances take advantage of such favorable conditions, we might see our first tropical storm, Adrian, this month.
Quoting Bitmap7:

One reason no one is reporting on this nor allowed to go inside the exclusion zone nor even measure the waters off of Japan is because of the following compiled by Makiko Segawa, a staff writer at the Shingetsu News Agency. She prepared this report from Fukushima and Tokyo for www.japanfocus.org:

Freelance journalists and foreign media are pursuing the facts, even going into the radiation exclusion zone. However, surprisingly, the Japan government continues to prevent freelance journalists and overseas media from gaining access to official press conferences at the prime minister's house and government



And this is a bad thing? I don't think that the press should be excluded from the exclusion zone, as it is meant to protect the safety of all citizens, including the press.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

What is an IP ban? Do you know what that is exactly. Please explain. I want to learn.


xxx
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Hello Pottery, good to see ya. Locals here in Ms seem pretty confident the levees are gonna hold up pretty good.....hoping they're right....now is just wait and see time....


What part of MS you from Eyes? I'm from the coast but we're being put on standby to respond to the flooded areas. I know they're saying the levees will hold, but the state at least is preparing for the worst.
kotg 403 forbidden
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
so, have we had a 1st tropical wave emerge yet...
don't think we have, and what's the word on pre-season development.
We have already had two tropical waves emerge in the preseason.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astrological Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15
TROPICAL STORM BEBENG (AERE)
11:00 AM PhST May 10 2011
====================================

Tropical Storm "BEBENG" " continues to move away from the country.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Bebeng (AERE) located at 20.4°N 122.3°E or 50 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Storm Signal #1
==============

Luzon Region
------------
1.Batanes

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

However, the western section of Luzon will still experience cloudy skies with scattered rain showers with gradual improvement of weather late today.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.
I see nothing has really changed with this blog. Its a crying shame, I tell ya, that such a respectable blog gets tarnished by continuous drama and immaturity, thus driving some well respected and knowledgeable people away.
Another update from Canada.

Major developments in Manitoba as the province declares a province-wide state of emergency.

"In a major development Monday night, Emergency Measures Minister Steve Ashton said Manitoba will be forced to divert water as soon as Wednesday, a diversion that will threaten an area of 225 square kilometres west and southwest of Winnipeg, placing 150 rural properties in the LaSalle River watershed at risk of flooding.

This "controlled release" of water will be done to prevent uncontrolled flooding of 850 properties in a wider 500-square-kilometre area, said Ashton.

Winnipeg is not considered at risk, officials said, as water ends up being diverted from the Assiniboine River into the LaSalle River watershed.

However, residents in the rural municipalities of Portage la Prairie, St. Francois Xavier and Headingley "should move key assets out of their homes or to higher levels in their homes," the province said Monday night. In the Rural Municipality of Cartier, evacuation notices went out to 1,500 residents Monday evening."

Part of the reason for the sudden escalation of things yesterday and tonight seems to be due to at least 1 and possibly 2 faulty automated flood gauges that have been underreporting river flows...
Quoting smuldy:
We have already had two tropical waves emerge in the preseason.


There have been no tropical waves officially analyzed thus far this year.
Quoting MrsOsa:


What part of MS you from Eyes? I'm from the coast but we're being put on standby to respond to the flooded areas. I know they're saying the levees will hold, but the state at least is preparing for the worst.


Hi there, I'm closer to Vicksburg in central Ms,....yes, you're right, they are preparing well, and seem to think the levee system will hold up. I do know that only 1 of the 5 Casinos are closed at Vicksburg....at this time....
Quoting cchsweatherman:


There have been no tropical waves officially analyzed thus far this year.
umm then what was the aoi off of the canaries and the cutoff low labeled 91L last month?

sorry just wiki'd it so tropical waves only count if they originate over open water? and im guessing the one near the azores did not but to be honest was not paying much attention that early on in the off season
Quoting smuldy:
umm then what was the aoi off of the canaries and the cutoff low labeled 91L last month?


Those were isolated low pressure systems, not tropical waves. If a tropical wave were to be analyzed, it would appear in the Tropical Weather Discussion and the Surface Analysis on the National Hurricane Center site.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Those were isolated low pressure systems, not tropical waves. If a tropical wave were to be analyzed, it would appear in the Tropical Weather Discussion and the Surface Analysis on the National Hurricane Center site.
they were discussed and analyzed by the nhc and given %s of formation into a tropical or subtropical system but i still think you may be right as i may be misunderstanding the necessary requirements to meet the definition
Astronomers Find Newly Discovered Asteroid Is Earth's Companion

ScienceDaily (Apr. 6, 2011) — Astronomers from the Armagh Observatory in Northern Ireland have found that a recently discovered asteroid has been following Earth in its motion around the Sun for at least the past 250,000 years, and may be intimately related to the origin of our planet.

Their work appears in a paper in the journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.

The asteroid first caught the eye of the scientists, Apostolos "Tolis" Christou and David Asher, two months after it was found by the WISE infrared survey satellite, launched in 2009 by the United States. "Its average distance from the Sun is identical to that of the Earth," says Dr Christou, "but what really impressed me at the time was how Earth-like its orbit was." Most near-Earth Asteroids -- NEAs for short -- have very eccentric, or egg-shaped, orbits that take the asteroid right through the inner solar system. But the new object, designated 2010 SO16, is different. Its orbit is almost circular so that it cannot come close to any other planet in the solar system except Earth.

Link
Quoting smuldy:
they were discussed and analyzed by the nhc and given %s of formation into a tropical or subtropical system but i still think you may be right as i may be misunderstanding the necessary requirements to meet the definition


Those are called invests, or disturbances that are being watched for possible, but not guaranteed, subtropical or tropical development.

A tropical wave is a pocket of heat and deep moisture that emerges off Africa and into the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical waves typically exhibit an inverted V shape (<) and sometimes can have lower to mid level lows associated with them.

Invest 90L was a low level low that got occluded from the main flow across Europe and drifted southward into the Canary Island region. It originated from a storm system that came off the United States, stalled out over the North Atlantic, and meandered losing its frontal boundary and properties.

Invest 91L originated from moisture surging from South America into the Lesser Antilles. It migrated northward and interacted with a stalled storm over the Central Atlantic and moved west due to building high pressure. It then had a slight chance for development when it interacted with a cut off upper low near the Bahamas.

Both invests came from stalled out frontal systems.
315. JRRP


Quoting cchsweatherman:


Those are called investssing its frontal boundary and properties.

Invest 91L originated ...... stalled out frontal systems.
thank you for clearing that up and sorry for the mis info earlier
317. JRRP
.
320. JRRP
Quoting smuldy:
thank you for clearing that up and sorry for the mis info earlier


No problem and no need to apologize. It happens. All about learning here.
Quoting MississippiWx:


All I'm saying is that something more strict than a ban needs to be done. Trolls are the main reason I refuse to pay a subscription on this site. I realize that most discussion areas on the internet are going to have trolls, but it gets ridiculous here and it hardly seems like anything is done about it other than a ban. Maybe that's all that can be done and maybe I expect too much. All I know is that another website I use is a lot better than this one as far as being civil goes.


Never seen so many trolls on here.
Gonna have to start blocking people.
Give weatherunderground a break though.
You can’t expect them to catch all the trolls. It’s
Up to you, but
Never paying for weatherunderground is
Gonna end up bankrupting them.
Let the trolls be trolls.
You can be better than them.
Down where I come from, you
Never punish the good guys.
Gonna keep paying for weatherunderground.
Run up the credit cards!
Around here, we love this website.
And no matter what, we won’t
Desert them.
You shouldn’t either.

Then again, you may have just been Rickrolled. Read the first word of each line.


Hey, I had to do it once, OK?
@322 -nice!
Quoting sunlinepr:
Astronomers Find Newly Discovered Asteroid Is Earth's Companion

ScienceDaily (Apr. 6, 2011) — Astronomers from the Armagh Observatory in Northern Ireland have found that a recently discovered asteroid has been following Earth in its motion around the Sun for at least the past 250,000 years, and may be intimately related to the origin of our planet.

Their work appears in a paper in the journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.

The asteroid first caught the eye of the scientists, Apostolos "Tolis" Christou and David Asher, two months after it was found by the WISE infrared survey satellite, launched in 2009 by the United States. "Its average distance from the Sun is identical to that of the Earth," says Dr Christou, "but what really impressed me at the time was how Earth-like its orbit was." Most near-Earth Asteroids -- NEAs for short -- have very eccentric, or egg-shaped, orbits that take the asteroid right through the inner solar system. But the new object, designated 2010 SO16, is different. Its orbit is almost circular so that it cannot come close to any other planet in the solar system except Earth.

Link


what's interesting is that its at the closest to earth in 2012. hmmm. i wonder what date exactly?
maybe i'm always talking to myself cause it tends to be safer that way? lol
hi

Thanks For the wonderful blog Dr jeff masters

its pretty helpful to learn new things and all thanks again jeff



regards
Syndrella

Quoting smuldy:

sorry just wiki'd it so tropical waves only count if they originate over open water?
Tropical waves do not originate over water; they are created by the temperature gradient between the Sahara Desert and the Sahel region of west Africa. They are subsequently propelled westward by the low-level easterlies characteristic of the deep tropics.

It is also important to note that not all tropical waves produce appreciable deep convection. In fact, more often than not, they fail to do so (due to the Saharan Air Layer) until they find a more favorable environment.
Can anyone tell me why this formula's value should increase with height in a standard atmosphere?

"T" is temperature at the point in question. "r" is the mixing ratio of water vapor per mass of air (g/kg). "p" is the atmospheric pressure at the point in question. Everything else are constants. T and r decrease a lot with height. So does p, which raises the value of the function, but usually only by about 5 between 1000mb and 200mb, while r alone decreases it by a factor of 10 at the same time, keeping the net change as a decrease.

Yet, equivalent potential temperature (which is what this is, btw) is supposed to increase with height in a standard atmosphere....



Actually here's what all the variables represent (screenshot from Wiki):

Quoting WaterWitch11:
maybe i'm always talking to myself cause it tends to be safer that way? lol


Could be that is where you find the most intelligent people.
don't spill yer coffee...

7.1 offa northeastern Australia, ~25 miles deep. can't access the tsunami page.
331. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE VERY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS PARKED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY
FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE TOO FAR EAST TO GENERATE CONVECTION FOR
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SMOKE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM LARGE
WILDFIRE IN THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP. LATEST HYSPLIT GUIDANCE BRINGS
SMOKE TO THE I75 CORRIDOR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
THEREAFTER...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...PUSHING THE
SMOKE NORTH PRIMARILY INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

RIDGE WILL REACH ITS MAXIMIUM AMPLITUDE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE
EXPECTED WITH INLAND AREAS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE UPPER 90S.
RECORD HIGHS COULD BE SET FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. BELOW
IS A LIST OF SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 11TH. NOTE THAT
ALBANY AND HEADLAND ARE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER SITES.

TALLAHASSEE.........95 SET IN 1973...DATA BACK TO 1885
APALACHICOLA........92 SET IN 2009...DATA BACK TO 1931
ALBANY 3SE (CO-OP)..99 SET IN 1955...DATA BACK TO 1901
HEADLAND AL (CO-OP).94 SET IN 1955...DATA BACK TO 1950

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING
WILL HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A STRONG
UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE THROUGH THE MISSOURI
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
TRI-STATE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AT
ALL LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS ALONG WILL INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EACH DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
332. P451
6HR WV, NA: Quite moist out there.

Quoting cchsweatherman:


Those are called invests, or disturbances that are being watched for possible, but not guaranteed, subtropical or tropical development.

A tropical wave is a pocket of heat and deep moisture that emerges off Africa and into the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical waves typically exhibit an inverted V shape (<) and sometimes can have lower to mid level lows associated with them.

Invest 90L was a low level low that got occluded from the main flow across Europe and drifted southward into the Canary Island region. It originated from a storm system that came off the United States, stalled out over the North Atlantic, and meandered losing its frontal boundary and properties.

Invest 91L originated from moisture surging from South America into the Lesser Antilles. It migrated northward and interacted with a stalled storm over the Central Atlantic and moved west due to building high pressure. It then had a slight chance for development when it interacted with a cut off upper low near the Bahamas.

Both invests came from stalled out frontal systems.

Terrific explanation.

Morning all.
Quoting Caffinehog:


Never seen so many trolls on here.
Gonna have to start blocking people.
Give weatherunderground a break though.
You can’t expect them to catch all the trolls. It’s
Up to you, but
Never paying for weatherunderground is
Gonna end up bankrupting them.
Let the trolls be trolls.
You can be better than them.
Down where I come from, you
Never punish the good guys.
Gonna keep paying for weatherunderground.
Run up the credit cards!
Around here, we love this website.
And no matter what, we won’t
Desert them.
You shouldn’t either.

Then again, you may have just been Rickrolled. Read the first word of each line.


Hey, I had to do it once, OK?

Rick Astley! Nice!
It appears Memphis has crested late last evening, just shy of the record. Now a slow, gradual decline of the water and of course the long clean up in the aftermath:

Observed and Forecast Stages



05/10 11:00 47.76ft 1970kcfs
05/10 10:00 47.78ft 1980kcfs
05/10 09:00 47.77ft 1970kcfs
05/10 08:00 47.77ft 1970kcfs
05/10 07:00 47.85ft 1980kcfs
05/10 06:00 47.78ft 1980kcfs
05/10 05:00 47.73ft 1970kcfs
05/10 04:00 47.76ft 1970kcfs
05/10 03:00 47.78ft 1980kcfs
05/10 02:00 47.7ft 1970kcfs
05/10 01:00 47.8ft 1980kcfs
05/10 00:00 47.8ft 1980kcfs
05/09 23:00 47.8ft 1980kcfs
05/09 22:00 47.84ft 1980kcfs
05/09 21:00 47.8ft 1980kcfs
05/09 20:00 47.82ft 1980kcfs
05/09 19:00 47.84ft 1980kcfs

05/09 18:00 47.76ft 1970kcfs
05/09 17:00 47.8ft 1980kcfs
05/09 16:00 47.82ft 1980kcfs
05/09 15:00 47.72ft 1970kcfs
05/09 14:00 47.78ft 1980kcfs
05/09 13:00 47.77ft 1970kcfs
05/09 12:00 47.75ft 1970kcfs
05/09 11:00 47.68ft 1970kcfs
05/09 10:00 47.72ft 1970kcfs
05/09 09:00 47.6ft 1970kcfs
05/09 08:00 47.7ft 1970kcfs
05/09 07:00 47.6ft 1970kcfs
05/09 06:00 47.6ft 1970kcfs
05/09 05:00 47.6ft 1970kcfs
05/09 04:00 47.5ft 1960kcfs
05/09 03:00 47.55ft 1960kcfs
05/09 02:00 47.55ft 1960kcfs
05/09 01:00 47.5ft 1960kcfs
336. Jax82
It officially stinks in NE FL. The whole stinkin' town smells like a campfire :)
Quoting JRRP:
from the looks of it we are ahead of 2008.
Quoting Jax82:
It officially stinks in NE FL. The whole stinkin' town smells like a campfire :)


Smoke has engulfed the sky here in Orlando. I haven't seen this type of skyline since 1998. This rain that is forecasted can't come soon enough.
339. Jax82
headin' for warmer water.

What the Euro is showing would be just what the doctor ordered here in FL and that's lots of rain starting this weekend. The GFS has been showing this as well but as been inconsistant in the placemnent of the cutoff low.
Quoting aquak9:
don't spill yer coffee...

7.1 offa northeastern Australia, ~25 miles deep. can't access the tsunami page.


Buoys don't show anything..

Looking at warnings..No threat for HI

Locally maybe..
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0855Z 10 MAY 2011
COORDINATES - 20.2 SOUTH 168.2 EAST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 7.1

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER - EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL
TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN
A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES
IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
Rasta~ I'm almost hopeful that we are in for a weather pattern change this weekend.

Sunset was beautiful last night, at a smokey cost to plenty but deep red.
Is that RAIN over TEXAS?
Can it just skip the lower Mississippi and come directly to Florida Fire central?

No ashfall here yet, but my eyes are stinging from the smoke.

To look at the silver lining from this destructive event, Lots of construction jobs for months, and rebuilding homes does not depress the housing market like new ones do.
343. It is welcome to skip the lower MS valley as long as it lingers here a bit... we definitely need it.
Cedar Park, TX, Rain forecast:
Tues: 20%
Wed: 40%
Thurs: 20%
What we really need: 100%
Quoting RastaSteve:
What the Euro is showing would be just what the doctor ordered here in FL and that's lots of rain starting this weekend. The GFS has been showing this as well but as been inconsistant in the placemnent of the cutoff low.



From the NWS in Tampa. Beginning to get on board with the solution.

FOR LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE
PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A LARGE TROUGH/STRONG MID LVL CLOSED LOW
WHICH SPINS AND DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY SUNDAY WITH SW FLOW
AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FL
PENINSULA. SINCE IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO FULLY EMBRACE THIS
SOLUTION...WILL GO AHEAD AND BEGIN RAISING POPS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS/30 PERCENT ATTM AND WAIT FOR
MORE MODEL PERSISTENCE BEFORE GOING ANY HIGHER.
Wish I had a forecast like this on TX coast

Tomm: Wind and rain, a 100% chance of heavy rain, winds over 50+mph.


Ahhhh, water
Now, your local on the 8s

Today, wind and rain, locally heavy rainfall possible, rainfall amounts over 3 inches.

Tommorrow, wind and rain, locally heavy rainfall possible, rainfall amounts over 3 inches
I was born in Henderson KY in 1942, five years after the '37 flood, but I can vividly remember the discussions at the General Store my mother and dad operated out in the county.

My wife is from the West Side of Evansville and I can remember driving along Riverside Drive in EVV when we were dating while in High School and the two distinctive items related to the '37 flood. 1) The Marking's showing the balcony on the second floor of the McCurdy Hotel used for a boat dock and 2) A red stripe painted on the outside wall of the Boeticher and Kellog Building at somewhere about 5.5 feet above ground level and the caption relating to the high water mark of the flood.

The one thing which was always present in all of the conversations was the cause of the flood namely "Ice Jams in the river causing a damming effect", I have not seen any reference to these "ice jams" or to the fact that they tried clearing them out by dynamiting them.

BTW, I am a retired pilot from DAL and flew the "Valley" from MSY to ORD for months on end.

I love the website and the job that you do bringing together the technology.

JIm Freeman
Crop failure and cattle loss looks to happen in TX as we continue into oblivian
Quoting RitaEvac:
Now, your local on the 8s

Today, wind and rain, locally heavy rainfall possible, rainfall amounts over 3 inches.

Tommorrow, wind and rain, locally heavy rainfall possible, rainfall amounts over 3 inches

Instead, you get a .25 of an inch for the next five days.

Quoting cat5hurricane:

Instead, you get a .25 of an inch for the next five days.



:(
Here I am!... (TX coast)


Rock me like a hurricane!
354. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Of interest perhaps here is a Facebook update I have just received:

Hurricane Season 2011 is approaching! I will be operating two webcams this year, and the "chat room" is now linked with Facebook. I desire to have my live broadcasts be more stream-lined. Step one was working on the web site to mirror my intentions. As always, my chases will be FREE experiences, with no gobble-de-gook to get in the way. I may go on a tornado chase or two in May to fine-tune my broadcasts. Stay tuned!
Quoting KennyNebraska:
Of interest perhaps here is a Facebook update I have just received:

Hurricane Season 2011 is approaching! I will be operating two webcams this year, and the "chat room" is now linked with Facebook. I desire to have my live broadcasts be more stream-lined. Step one was working on the web site to mirror my intentions. As always, my chases will be FREE experiences, with no gobble-de-gook to get in the way. I may go on a tornado chase or two in May to fine-tune my broadcasts. Stay tuned!
Good luck !!! I hope we have all fish storms this year !
This is seriously going to crush many of the areas with a thriving economy along the Mississippi River coast. I hope Immediate Response Group and other similar organizations can send aid quickly. They have the necessary resources to help protect the businesses' assets, which will keep the economy going in the long run.