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Miriam Hits Cat 3 Strength off of Mexico; Jelawat a Cat 4 Super Typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:17 PM GMT on September 24, 2012

In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Baja Mexico, Hurricane Miriam put on a burst of rapid intensification this morning that has brought it to Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds. This makes Miriam the 2nd strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane of 2012 behind Hurricane Emelia of July, which hit Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds. Satellite imagery shows that Miriam has a tiny "pinhole" eye, and continues to intensify. Miriam could approach Category 4 strength before an eyewall replacement cycle begins early Tuesday. High wind shear will attack Miriam late this week, and our two top models, the GFS and ECMWF, show Miriam hitting central Baja as a weak tropical storm on Friday or Saturday, with moisture from the storm streaming into Arizona and New Mexico by Sunday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Miriam.

Super Typhoon Jelawat the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
In the Western Pacific, Super Typhoon Jelawat put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification on Sunday, strengthening from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds in just 24 hours. Jelawat has topped out as a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds, making it the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far in 2012, behind Super Typhoon Sanba (175 mph winds.) Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm's outer spiral bands are bringing some moderate rains to the eastern Philippines. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These conditions should allow Jelawat to maintain major typhoon status for at least three more days. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

Jelawat is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest to northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. After that, there remains major uncertainty on where Jelawat might go, with the spread in the computer models about 400 miles for the 3-day forecast. The official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast compromises between the unusually large spread in the models, predicting a path well east of the Philippines and Taiwan. However, our two top models--the GFS and ECMWF--both predict that Jelawat will hit Taiwan, and the ECMWF model predicts that Jelawat will also graze the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island. Given the large spread in models, the 3 - 5 day forecast for Jelawat is low-confidence, and residents of Luzon and Taiwan should not assume that Jelawat will miss them.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Jelawat taken at 12:30 am EDT Monday, September 24, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Pesky Nadine still out there
Persistent Tropical Storm Nadine continues to wander westwards in the Middle Atlantic, far enough south of the Azores Islands that those islands will see only very sporadic rain showers over the next few days. Nadine will likely turn to the north over the middle Atlantic late this week, but will still probably be around a week from now. The storm is not likely to threaten any land areas for at least the next seven days.

GOES-13 satellite outage
The imaging instrument on NOAA's geostationary satellite that provides regular images every 15 minutes for the Eastern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean, GOES-13, has been experiencing an increasing amount of noise in the signal since September 12. The noise got so bad on Sunday night that the instrument was placed in stand-by mode, and engineers are attempting to troubleshoot the problem. GOES-15, the geostationary satellite that covers the Western U.S. and Eastern Pacific, is now taking images of all of North America to help compensate. However, there is no regular 15-minute satellite imagery available for most of the North Atlantic, including the Caribbean. September is a bad time to be without satellite imagery over the Atlantic, but fortunately, there are not any threat areas in the Atlantic we are currently worried about. The CIMSS Satellite Blog has more information on the outage, and also has links to polar orbiting satellite imagery over the region where we do not have geostationary data. The loss of GOES-13 data will degrade the accuracy of the computer forecast models for the globe, particularly over the Atlantic, for the duration of the outage.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Not good news for us on the Satellites. thanks Doc. Jelawat is something to see though.
The loss of GOES-13 data will degrade the accuracy of the computer forecast models for the globe, particularly over the Atlantic, for the duration of the outage.


Bummer...
Nadine will stick around for awhile, most likely. Also, the Western Pacific is just getting slammed with hurricanes this year.
Thanks Dr. Masters. Jelawat is amazing. And Nadine is Karen reincarnated. :)
Thanks Dr.......Goes (pun intended) to show you how revolutionary, and critical, our Satt data is for tropical forecasting. Really huge problem if a solar flare ever took out some these satellites on a more permanent basis.
Thanks Dr M
Nadine is like a cold that won't go away!
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Thanks Dr M
Nadine is like a cold


]Good Morning. With the Satt loops down, there will be no "blob" talk cluttering the Blog until further notice.............

from what that satilite does show the gom before it cuts off so i call the for the gom blob been there scince last night moving east so we do have one blob to talk about today lol grother ?
Thank you Dr. Masters
I'm really sorry to hear about the issues with GOES-13. Coincidentally, Aviation Week just released this article, stating:

"An independent review panel has concluded that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) oversight of its weather satellite programs is “dysfunctional,” leaving the execution of its GOES-R and Joint Polar Satellite System programs an “extremely challenging” proposition."


Article Link
Doc M,
Thanks for answering the question about Goes 13 and model output. Suspected that would be the case but was not sure.
remember the movie independence day. communication problems up there?
Thanks Doc ...

Getting rather fed up of Nadine right now ... heavy rainfall never stopped all day from the circulation that she sent North a couple of days ago I believe its called Karin. Also actual Nadine is predicted to make an appearance in the NE Atlantic in about 2 weeks ...Roll on spring sigh
Quoting islander101010:
remember the movie independence day. communication problems up there?


Just as the shadow of the alien ship crossed the Moon on the way to Earth............. :)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Just as the shadow of the alien ship crossed the Moon on the way to Earth............. :)


Isn't there a new show on TV that has all the electricity on earth stop? Fights broke out, people got attacked; pure chaos. I hope that nothing like that ever happens on this blog.
Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm's outer spiral bands are bringing some moderate rains to the eastern Philippines.

Virac, Catanduanes current rain rate 11.176mm/hr(0.44in/hr) is classified as heavy and Typhoon Jelawat has already caused the deaths of 2 people, 31y.o woman struck by lightning and a 5y.o boy whom was sleeping, was crushed when a tree fell on the house.



also 4,000 families displaced by floods in Zamboanga del Norte. Floodwater has practically submerged the entire town following days of continuous rain.
At least 800 families are now staying in churches and gymnasiums. Some of the evacuees are staying with relatives living on higher ground. In some surrounding villages, the water has reached five feet high.

Quoting Grothar:


Isn't there a new show on TV that has all the electricity on earth stop? Fights broke out, people got attacked; pure chaos. I hope that nothing like that ever happens on this blog.

um.... no power,,,,, no blog.
Quoting AussieStorm:

um.... no power,,,,, no blog.


I have a battery back-up. :)
Quoting Grothar:


Isn't there a new show on TV that has all the electricity on earth stop? Fights broke out, people got attacked; pure chaos. I hope that nothing like that ever happens on this blog.


Sounds like some of the lines outside many of the Apple stores last week :)
img src="">
No rain here in S. Fl. but cumulus clouds aren't really moving. So if it starts look out for heavy rain.

We'll take what we can get.



Quoting Grothar:


I have a battery back-up. :)

but does the world??
Quoting calkevin77:


Sounds like some of the lines outside many of the Apple stores last week :)


I still don't even know what half of those things are.
Quoting AussieStorm:

but does the world??


Then I'll talk to myself. Some of the best conversations I've ever had.
Quoting gordydunnot:
No rain here in S. Fl. but cumulus clouds aren't really moving. So if it starts look out for heavy rain.



I guess with the satellites out, we will have to watch the ants, clouds, and birds to find out what is happening.
Quoting calkevin77:


Sounds like some of the lines outside many of the Apple stores last week :)


off topic but I cracked up over the Samsung Galaxy III new commercial about the iphone users waiting in line..
Quoting Grothar:


Isn't there a new show on TV that has all the electricity on earth stop? Fights broke out, people got attacked; pure chaos. I hope that nothing like that ever happens on this blog.


Revolution
Quoting calkevin77:


Sounds like some of the lines outside many of the Apple stores last week :)

What they q for apples there, is there shortage or something? I just go to the local fruit shop and buy a whole bag full. I make good apple sauce and nice sweet apple juice.
Quoting Grothar:


Then I'll talk to myself. Some of the best conversations I've ever had.

yeah, talking to ones self can be a very interesting conversation also can be very enlightening too.
according to the Euro, Miriam is supposed to head across country and exit off in the east atlantic..what a ride..
Quoting Grothar:


I have a battery back-up. :)


The new show, "Revolution", has rendered batteries dead as well. That is why the cars would no longer run.
Quoting Grothar:


I guess with the satellites out, we will have to watch the ants, clouds, and birds to find out what is happening.


Not a very good time of the year to have the satellite not working. Hard to watch the carribean without them
Quoting AussieStorm:

yeah, talking to ones self can be a very interesting conversation also can be very enlightening too.


I tried that before. It always ended up in an argument.


Edited typo
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I tried that before. It was ended up in an argument.

all depends on which side of your brain is strongest. the secret is to keep them the same strength with well rounded learnings.
Aspen/Snowmass ‏@AspenSnowmass
SNOW on top of Aspen Mountain! And it's coming down hard.

update


SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST INTERNATIONAL ADMIN MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1611Z MON SEP 24 2012

ON SUN SEP 23 2012...THE GOES-13 SOUNDER WAS TAKEN OUT OF SERVICE
AT 1126Z AND THE IMAGER AT 2122Z...DUE TO A PROBLEM ON-BOARD THE
SATELLITE. NOAA/NESDIS ENGINEERS CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE AND NO
RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS AVAILABLE.

NOAA`S NESDIS AND NWS PERSONNEL ARE EXPLORING OPTIONS TOWARD
REGAINING GOES-EAST COVERAGE AND HOPE TO HAVE MORE INFORMATION TO
PASS ALONG WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WE ARE
PROVIDING FULL DISK IMAGERY FROM THE GOES-15 SATELLITE TO
MITIGATE THE LOSS OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN COVERAGE.

Quoting FtMyersgal:


Not a very good time of the year to have the satellite not working. Hard to watch the carribean without them



It's pretty funny to see the GOES East full-disk image basically just showing the right half of the GOES west full-disk. Surely nobody will notice...

GOES West:


GOES East:
Quoting AussieStorm:

all depends on which side of your brain is strongest. the secret is to keep them the same strength with well rounded learnings.


That is where the arguments began. The strong side did not want to concede any power to the weak side. ... I just decided that they are both weak sides.
45. 7544
is that gom blob, mess going to move east or nne tia
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1150 AM EDT MON 24 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-128

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM NADINE
FLIGHT ONE --NA872--
A. 27/0000Z
B. NA872 0514A NADINE
C. 26/1030Z
D. 29.5N 33.0W CENTER
E. 26/1700Z TO 27/0630Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
G. E-W LAWNMOWER PATTERN WITH A TOTAL OF 78 SONDES
RELEASED FOR THE FLIGHT.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Thank you Dr. Masters for the update on Miriam, Jelawat, and the satellite outage.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That is where the arguments began. The strong side did not want to concede any power to the weak side. ... I just decided that they are both weak sides.

so you used your "other" brain to decide that. mmmmm
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 911.1mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +10.8C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Nadine's daughter:



(If you can't tell, the Isles are somewhere under there!)
Quoting Slamguitar:
Nadine's daughter:


Hopefully Nadine doesn't follow her daughter, Nadine is one of the coolest storms I've tracked.
Is this real???

lighting hits twice near reporter in Estonia

Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

so you used your "other" brain to decide that. mmmmm


When you are me, it is always best to have a spare on hand.
Quoting ncstorm:
according to the Euro, Miriam is supposed to head across country and exit off in the east atlantic..what a ride..

That would probably give some people beneficial rain, also would be something if she came into the Atlantic.

I have to go back to class, bye everyone.
Current Systems world wide...

Well, my daughter whom is suffering a bout of gastro is sound asleep so I'll also get some sleep. Been a tough 2 days for her.

Goodnight all. Stay safe, stay well.
.
.
.
out
Are telegrams still sent by wire, or are they like long distance phone which even on a land line can require satellite relay? Maybe you wouldn't have to lose electricity. Just losing sats could bring chaos considering the level of communication to which the world is accustomed.
Thanks Dr. Masters, good afternoon everybody.

Some ensemble members from different runs.





Quoting AussieStorm:
Is this real???

lighting hits twice near reporter in Estonia

Link

It's a faked video of a real lighting strike. There are several versions floating around, but the real video has the lightning strike hitting a building behind the reporter. The versions with lightning striking the cross and the supposed second strike that hit the reporter are fakes. Too many people with video SFX software with too much time on their hands.
I think I was the one who said Miriam would put on a show in the next 48 hours yesterday... look what happened the past 24 hours? :3
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Revolution


Another lame pseudo-science show trying to cash in on the hunger games. Yeah, a teenage girl with a bow and arrow.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks Dr. Masters, good afternoon everybody.

Some ensemble members from different runs.






So, the GFS has a deep low off Panama, or a weak low off Belize, or a moderately deep low in the BOC, all at about the same time? I'm dusting off my dartboard now and pasting a map of the tropics on it. I think I can beat the GFS. :)
Quoting wxchaser97:

That would probably give some people beneficial rain, also would be something if she came into the Atlantic.

I have to go back to class, bye everyone.


We, here in New Mexico would be quite happy with the track predicted. We could use the rain.
Good looking storm in the EPAC.

Nor,Easter in a week.?..
Climitalogical storm tracks for the month of October:



Points of Origin for the last 162 years.





Quoting Grothar:


I guess with the satellites out, we will have to watch the ants, clouds, and birds to find out what is happening.

The ants bit me this morning.
The clouds are looming darkly, with distant thunder.
The birds are going about their daily chores.

So, what does it all mean??
Quoting StormDrain:
Are telegrams still sent by wire, or are they like long distance phone which even on a land line can require satellite relay? Maybe you wouldn't have to lose electricity. Just losing sats could bring chaos considering the level of communication to which the world is accustomed.

If you mean by copper wire strung from poles then no, telegrams are no longer sent that way in the USA. Western Union stopped their telegram service in 2006, although a few private providers still offer telegrams. They are all sent using telephone landline systems. The underwater cable system between different parts of the world is still in use, mostly for telex and other low speed data. Satellites are an integral part of almost every communications system in the developed world. Although there is a certain amount of redundancy built into the networks, the loss of key satellites would cause some major problems. Chaos is probably too strong a term, but there would have to be some major adaptions required. Stock markets around the world would probably be affected more than any other single entity, and a prolonged outage could lead to chaos in the financial world.
Quoting pottery:

The ants bit me this morning.
The clouds are looming darkly, with distant thunder.
The birds are going about their daily chores.

So, what does it all mean??

A fire ant...well, several of them, actually...bit me this morning too. This sounds like a disturbing trend developing. I believe our ant overlords may be about ready to make their move for world domination. :)
On the rain from Miriam in the SW USA:

Last Week Of September Will Be Interesting

Quoting pottery:

The ants bit me this morning.
The clouds are looming darkly, with distant thunder.
The birds are going about their daily chores.

So, what does it all mean??
Ants will bite regardless of the weather. Clouds that loom darkly will quench the tree. Birds can eat there own weight in a day and there chores are many. Business as usual..:)
Ants cloud darkly,
Distant birds thunder...
Means daily chores.

: )
CRS
Quoting 7544:
is that gom blob, mess going to move east or nne tia

It's pretty much going to keep the same west to east flow pattern until a cold front gets out there sometime this weekend and knocks it out. It's a constant moisture plume that's causing all the flooding problems in south Florida.
GOES-14 has a maybe little clearer view off the east coast. Wow.. MIRIAM.

Quoting sar2401:

A fire ant...well, several of them, actually...bit me this morning too. This sounds like a disturbing trend developing. I believe our ant overlords may be about ready to make their move for world domination. :)

Very Disturbing !
I have sent out for a pair of ant-eaters, just in case.
And this morning I poured a quart of high-octane gas into a large nest of leaf-cutting ants, to stop them dead. They were eating my wife's croton plants.

I was not aware at the time that they were considering world domination.
If you don't hear from me further, you can assume the worst......
Humidity is now at 63% in WPB = :)
Quoting hydrus:
Ants will bite regardless of the weather. Clouds that loom darkly will quench the tree. Birds can eat there own weight in a day and there chores are many. Business as usual..:)


Prophetic stuff there.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Ants cloud darkly,
Distant birds thunder...
Means daily chores.

: )
CRS


And there too.
MIRIAM LOOKS AWESOME!!!
Incredible you can see the eye of Lawin on that full disk I posted last. Here's a little closer.

Quoting pottery:

Very Disturbing !
I have sent out for a pair of ant-eaters, just in case.
And this morning I poured a quart of high-octane gas into a large nest of leaf-cutting ants, to stop them dead. They were eating my wife's croton plants.

I was not aware at the time that they were considering world domination.
If you don't hear from me further, you can assume the worst......
LOL..Pound for pound, ants would whip us in the first round. I am amazed ants have not seized the world, they were here first and there numbers are many.
85 GHz H-Pol TRMM it's a few hours old.

Ant eaters will not eat Fire Ants, can't blame them for that choice.
Quoting pottery:

Very Disturbing !
I have sent out for a pair of ant-eaters, just in case.
And this morning I poured a quart of high-octane gas into a large nest of leaf-cutting ants, to stop them dead. They were eating my wife's croton plants.

I was not aware at the time that they were considering world domination.
If you don't hear from me further, you can assume the worst......

TROPICAL UPDATE

_______________________

Tropical Storm Nadine and Hurricane Miriam
Typhoon Jelawat and TS Ewiniar



risk free 4x bigger pic here...
Quoting Grothar:


I have a battery back-up. :)
Gro, watch the show, the batteries die too.
Quoting Grothar:





Crazy how my cell phone is more powerful than that whole remington randt super computer
Quoting hydrus:
LOL..Pound for pound, ants would whip us in the first round. I am amazed ants have not seized the world, they were here first and there numbers many.
and I think they will be here after we are gone too,wish i could get them to pay rent for using my lawn for housing LOL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep gfs has it at 144 hours last i looked
Quoting LargoFl:
and I think they will be here after we are gone too,wish i could get them to pay rent for using my lawn for housing LOL
$250.00 a month for each tenant. Eat your heart out Gates.
Quoting hydrus:
$250.00 a month for each tenant. Eat your heart out Gates.
LOLOL dont i wish
RGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
209 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...

.LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MID 30S BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL ALLOW FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS.


MEZ012-NHZ003-004-250215-
/O.NEW.KGYX.FR.Y.0007.120925T0600Z-120925T1100Z/
SOUTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUMFORD...NORWAY...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...
LITTLETON...NORTH CONWAY
209 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT FROM 2 AM UNTIL 7 AM.

* IMPACTS...A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT AREAS OF FROST IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT OUTSIDE AND UNCOVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT OUTSIDE AND UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
long range model has that pacific storm going back into mexico and the rains into texas, hope they get their wish for rain.
The ATCF agrees that Miriam is a little stronger:

EP, 13, 2012092418, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1132W, 105, 958, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 20, 1010, 240, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MIRIAM, D,
Link..................NWS wants your thoughts, take their survey.......We Need Your Feedback! Take Our Weather Survey

The NWS is undertaking its annual research to better serve your needs. Please take our survey at the link below. The survey will take about 20 minutes to complete and need not be finished all at once. We also encourage you to take a moment and complete one or more of the additional sections focused on Hazardous Weather, Marine Weather, and Aviation Weather. Thank you. ..............when you get there, click the READ MORE,takes you to the survey,many would like to see more info added to the forecasts..now is the time to let them know what YOU want to see huh
They did switch GOES-EAST to GOES-14..

Update#15

GOES-15 is remaining in the Full Disk GOES-West Schedule and GOES-14 is
assuming the Routine GOES-East Schedule at 17:45 UTC. GOES-13 will
remain in safe mode while the spacecraft anomaly is being investigated.

Details: GOES-15 is remaining in the Full Disk GOES-West Schedule and
GOES-14 is assuming the Routine GOES-East Schedule and will be
transmitted through the GOES-13 GVAR beginning at 17:45 UTC. There are
some differences between the Routine GOES-13 schedule that was in
operations until the safe-mode anomaly began on September 23, 2012 and
the Routine GOES-14 schedule that is beginning today, September
24, 2012:

Frames Canceled for New Day Transition
GOES-13: 00:32 UTC CONUS Image
GOES-13: 00:20 UTC G. MEXICO Sounding
GOES-14: 01:32 UTC CONUS Image
GOES-14: 01:20 UTC E. CARIBBEAN Sounding

Eclipse Period
GOES-13: 03:15-06:44 UTC Stray Light Algorithm Applied
GOES-14: 05:15-08:44 UTC Stray Light Algorithm NOT Applied

Frames Canceled for Housekeeping
GOES-13: 15:32 UTC CONUS Image
GOES-13: 15:39 UTC S. HEM. Image
GOES-13: 15:20 UTC G. MEXICO Sounding
GOES-14: 19:00 UTC CONUS Image
GOES-14: 19:09 UTC S. HEM. Image
GOES-14: 18:46 UTC CONUS Sounding
Quoting pottery:

The ants bit me this morning.
The clouds are looming darkly, with distant thunder.
The birds are going about their daily chores.

So, what does it all mean??


I think it means:
You were standing in an ant bed
It may rain an you and the ants
If the birds don't eat all the time they starve because of high metabolism......they actually eat like little pigs.

I liked your post. Forgive me for being a little smart a..
You are all really funny. Maybe we need more philosphy on here and less of some other stuff.
107. VR46L
The entire UK and The republic of Ireland is under warnings for Gale force winds or floods... all spawning from Nadine separation and giving birth to a storm called Karin

I "think" this is current......

Quoting pottery:

The ants bit me this morning.
The clouds are looming darkly, with distant thunder.
The birds are going about their daily chores.

So, what does it all mean??



All together now, to the tune of "My Favorite Things":

When the ants bite
When the birds sing
When the thunder roars...
I know I have to get up from my chair
It's time for daily chores!

Don't ask where these brain droppings come from, I have no idea. I just have to put things to song!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Miriam a little stronger:

EP, 13, 2012092418, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1132W, 105, 958, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 20, 1010, 240, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MIRIAM, D,
Not really. As of 11am, Miriam was at 120mph (105kt). Likely done strengthening.
Good afternoon everyone. Everything suggests Jelawat is a solid Cat 5 right now:

JMA forecasts a sub 900 mb now.



WTPQ20 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1217 JELAWAT (1217)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 15.2N 127.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 16.8N 126.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 895HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 261800UTC 18.4N 124.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 895HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
72HF 271800UTC 20.2N 122.8E 210NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT =
pottery: The ants bit me this morning.
The clouds are looming darkly, with distant thunder.
The birds are going about their daily chores.
So, what does it all mean?


Bad news: the ants assumed it was okay to disassemble carrion.
Good news: if the ants were correct, the clouds would be shining brightly beneath your feet to the accompaniment of harps
And the birds don't care either way, those self-centered *********!!!!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Miriam a little stronger:

EP, 13, 2012092418, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1132W, 105, 958, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 20, 1010, 240, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MIRIAM, D,


actually 105 knots is what Miriam is now...so no change in intensity but I think she's stronger
Afternoon all. I sure hope they can get whatever it is fixed... The secondary peak of the season is not a good time to be without satellite coverage...
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr.......Goes (pun intended) to show you how revolutionary, and critical, our Satt data is for tropical forecasting. Really huge problem if a solar flare ever took out some these satellites on a more permanent basis.
I am sure enough hoping that NHC has some "secret" satellite data from other satellites we don't even know about..... :/
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon everyone. Everything suggests Jelawat is a solid Cat 5 right now:



Agree...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon everyone. Everything suggests Jelawat is a solid Cat 5 right now:



Yeah JTWC's dvorak is at T7.0 (in comparison to T6.5 a few hours ago when 130kts was chosen) which means no doubt 140kts at the next update.
120. 7544
hmm thats alot of rain in the gom heading east fl going to get wet again .
What a fabulous day in Orlando. although temps are in the mid-upper 80's, dewpoints are well-down into the 50's! A taste of Fall!!!
Quoting fireflymom:
Ant eaters will not eat Fire Ants, can't blame them for that choice.


Yeah ?
Well I'm sorry to say that your advice is too late.
These anteaters I just got confirm that fire ants are NOT yummy.
They seem very interested in the chickens in the garden.
Strange though, I always thought that anteaters were quadrupeds with long snouts.
These ones are 10' long, have no legs and slither along, hissing.

Trying to get the supplier on the phone, but keep getting a message that says 'Goodbye, we have gone to the South of France for 6 weeks'

They were really expensive, too....
Quoting weatherbro:
What a fabulous day in Orlando. although temps are in the mid-upper 80's, dewpoints are well-down into the 50's! A taste of Fall!!!


we got a taste of fall here too.
it tastes bad.....
Cool Fall Weather is boring...
It's cold at my morning swim practice here
43F = Brrrrrrrr.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I "think" this is current......



It is. We got a better view with GOES-14, though the NE Atlantic is distorted & missing on some of the usual products. GOES-14 happened to be currently out of storage for annual inclination maneuver. I guess they may end up maneuvering it to the east if they can't save GOES-13.

This is the full view for orientation..

Quoting BahaHurican:
I am sure enough hoping that NHC has some "secret" satellite data from other satellites we don't even know about..... :/


Here is an article from June of this year on the Air Force "replacement" unmanned Shuttle. They probably have a manned version to repair broken satellites that NHC could "borrow" in a pinch if needed.

Link
Ewinar:
Pinhole Eye = Collapse

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
259 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

MEZ011-032-250400-
/O.NEW.KCAR.FR.Y.0007.120925T0700Z-120925T1100Z/
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LINCOLN...HOWLAND...SPRINGFIELD...
DANFORTH...VANCEBORO...TOPSFIELD
259 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...35 TO 40 WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER AND MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.
Quoting hydrus:
Nor,Easter in a week.?..Quoting hydrus:
Nor,Easter in a week.?..


That means cooler drier air will follow for next week. I say bring it on!!!
Definately not on topic, but if anyone is interested... click on my avatar. I just noticed all the flagged spruce in the picture, due to the harsh winters and wind up on the Allegheny Front. It really is like another world up there, from the foot of the mountain to the top.

Link

The trees are formed unto the unique shape by snow pack and wind. In some areas of the Sods, you can find the prostrate form of red spruce growing low and along the ground, as well as at Spruce Knob Wilderness. The trees are genetically the same as red spruce, but a variation that can creep along at ground level.

The boreal climate and unique trees and wildlife are all in serious danger from climate change, as they occur so far south they basically exist on a mountain top island.
Quoting pottery:

Yeah ?
Well I'm sorry to say that your advice is too late.
These anteaters I just got confirm that fire ants are NOT yummy.
They seem very interested in the chickens in the garden.
Strange though, I always thought that anteaters were quadrupeds with long snouts.
These ones are 10' long, have no legs and slither along, hissing.

Trying to get the supplier on the phone, but keep getting a message that says 'Goodbye, we have gone to the South of France for 6 weeks'

They were really expensive, too....
thats not an anteater thats an Anaconda
Quoting weatherbro:
What a fabulous day in Orlando. although temps are in the mid-upper 80's, dewpoints are well-down into the 50's! A taste of Fall!!!


Your fabulous weather hasn't gotten here bro. Temps is 85° but heat index is 90°. Humidity is 61% and dewpoint 70°. DP of 50° sounds lovely.
Quoting weatherbro:
What a fabulous day in Orlando. although temps are in the mid-upper 80's, dewpoints are well-down into the 50's! A taste of Fall!!!
YES real nice here along to coast also, just wish one of those cold fronts would finally drop the temps down some, would really feel like fall then
tropical wave moving into the windwards seems at the moment most likely candidate
Quoting weatherbro:
What a fabulous day in Orlando. although temps are in the mid-upper 80's, dewpoints are well-down into the 50's! A taste of Fall!!!


Dewpoints are around 70 here :(
No rain in sight either.
anyone see the midatlantic storm starting at 144 hours on the 12z GFS?







138. 7544
looks like a small spin just west of fl in gom hard to tell tho with the blackouts
Miriam has begun an Eyewall Replacement cycle.

Sure, the GOES-13 satellite loss is unfortunate, but it's really not a big deal. We have several different satellites to cover storms in the Atlantic and several different agencies to conduct satellite intensity estimates. The models are not affected.

So...we have everything to track a storm still.

Anyways...

Jelawat is now a confirmed Category 5 typhoon according to JTWC.



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc12/WPAC/18W.JE LAWAT/ir/geo/1km_BD/20120924.1901.mtsat-2.ir.BD.18WJELAWAT.140kts-918mb.jpg
Quoting weatherbro:
What a fabulous day in Orlando. although temps are in the mid-upper 80's, dewpoints are well-down into the 50's! A taste of Fall!!!


So that's where fall went! ;)

From Facebook
KBMT-12
‎Patrick Vaughn, 12 News HD
Currently, the Heat Index is running between 97 and 99 degrees outside. Real Fall-like!?!
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Agree...



no doubt! thats for sure at cat 5
September 24, 2012: GOES-13 (East) has experienced a malfunction and is unable to generate imagery. Engineers are working on a fix and the estimated return to service is undetermined at this time. GOES-14 imagery is being relayed through GOES-13 and we are working on incorporating these new domains into our web page.

From:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir. html

The image on the above page appears to be current, but is stamped with date Sept. 23
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats not an anteater thats an Anaconda


I get that all the time...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sure, the GOES-13 satellite loss is unfortunate, but it's really not a big deal. We have several different satellites to cover storms in the Atlantic and several different agencies to conduct satellite intensity estimates. The models are not affected.

So...we have everything to track a storm still.

Anyways...

Jelawat is now a confirmed Category 5 typhoon according to JTWC.



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc12/WPAC/18W.JE LAWAT/ir/geo/1km_BD/20120924.1901.mtsat-2.ir.BD.18WJELAWAT.140kts-918mb.jpg


JMA goes bonkers to sub-900mbs.

24HF 251800UTC 16.8N 126.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 895HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 261800UTC 18.4N 124.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 895HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
Any new news on what is going on with GOES-13?

Is this just a glitch or could this be permanently down?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Ants cloud darkly,
Distant birds thunder...
Means daily chores.

: )
CRS
Is this haiku?

;o)
"September is a bad time to be without satellite imagery over the Atlantic"....For the normal years, not for 2012. This year is a mess!!!! Non rains, no tropical waves, no good hurricanes for the northern leewards islands...
today weather is awesome!!:)
The imaging instrument on NOAA's geostationary satellite that provides regular images every 15 minutes for the Eastern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean, GOES-13, has been experiencing an increasing amount of noise in the signal since September 12.

what is noise?
Where is El Nino? Todays CPC update cools Nino 3.4 to plus 0.3C and that is less than last weeks plus 0.5C.

Link

Quoting Dakster:
Any new news on what is going on with GOES-13?

Is this just a glitch or could this be permanently down?
We still don't know either way.

Quoting zicoille:
"September is a bad time to be without satellite imagery over the Atlantic"....For the normal years, not for 2012. This year is a mess!!!! Non rains, no tropical waves, no good hurricanes for the northern leewards islands...
I'm just worried we'll get a "good" hurricane at a time when our resources are not 100%....

But I have been informed that I'm only being paranoid when I think this...
Quoting VR46L:
The entire UK and The republic of Ireland is under warnings for Gale force winds or floods... all spawning from Nadine separation and giving birth to a storm called Karin



Yep, didn't even bother to get out of my pajamas today was so bad! hahaha

Have a train from N Wales to London tomorrow as an old friend from San Diego is there for business so must meet up! But not sure if flooding will cause probs, as the closest town that I usually drive through always floods when super rainy LOL

I have to say, am SO happy for you FL lot who've finally gotten some decent temp and dew point relief! What a total relief I'm sure!!!

Though, very sorry AthomeinTX who didn't get any of it :(
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Where is El Nino? Todays CPC update cools Nino 3.4 to plus 0.3C and that is less than last weeks plus 0.5C.

Link




This was not a re true EL niño. Year



And it looks like it has peaked .
I said before I left for school that I would come home to a cat5, I have came home to a cat5 typhoon. Jelawat is a stellar looking typhoon and is still strengthening.


Miriam is undergoing an EWRC with the eye collapsing and 120mph may be her peak, just like I thought.


Good afternoon everyone, hopefully everyone is having a good day.
!!!!!!!!!:)
84°F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity now at 62%
What a beast!

Category 5 Super Typhoon Jelawat.

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST MON SEP 24 2012

BURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF NADINE TODAY...AND THERE ARE SOME LOOSE CONVECTIVE BANDS.
HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE THE WINDS THAT
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE MOST
CURRENT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THE OCEANSAT-2 SATELLITE INDICATED
SIMILAR PEAK WINDS AS IN THE MORNING ASCAT PASS. THEREFORE... THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 45 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING
IS UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER A LITTLE WARMER WATER AND
INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LESS VERTICAL SHEAR...SO MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. LATER IN THE PERIOD...STRONGER
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR
AND THIS SHOULD HALT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.

NADINE APPEARS TO BE TURNING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
280/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN A DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF A LARGE BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKING
NADINE ALMOST DUE SOUTHWARD FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AS IT COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN
TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER MOTION NEAR THE END FORECAST PERIOD...THUS
THE NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 31.7N 28.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 31.7N 29.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 31.4N 30.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 30.7N 30.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 29.8N 30.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 28.7N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 29.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 30.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

...NADINE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...
5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 24
Location: 31.7°N 28.6°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.5W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.5W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.2W

HURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2012

THE INTENSIFICATION PHASE THAT MIRIAM HAS BEEN UNDERGOING HAS COME
TO AN END...AS THERE HAS BEEN A DEGRADATION IN THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN WARMING AND THE EYE HAS BECOME
LESS DISTINCT. A 1640 UTC TRMM IMAGE INDICATED THAT AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT COULD BE UNDERWAY...WITH A SMALL INNER EYEWALL EVIDENT
AND AN OUTER EYEWALL HAVING CONTRACTED SLIGHTLY TO A RADIUS OF 50 N
MI. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE LEVELED OFF AT 5.5 FROM BOTH SATELLITE
AGENCIES...AND UW-CIMSS ADT CI VALUES HAVE DECREASED TO 5.6. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 105 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH
THESE DATA.

THE EYE OF MIRIAM HAS WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND HAS SLOWED IN FORWARD SPEED. A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF
CENTER FIXES GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/08. MIRIAM
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...MIRIAM SHOULD MOVE INTO A
WEAKNESS ALONG 115W AND TURN NORTHWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FROM DAYS 3-5 SHOULD PUSH THE TRACK OF
MIRIAM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...OR EVEN NORTHEASTWARD...DURING THAT
TIME. NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHICH IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS. AS IN PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...THIS IS NEAR THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT WILL
CONTINUE. IN ANY EVENT...A COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE MIRIAM REACHES MARGINALLY WARM
WATERS AND SOME INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE INTERIM AND AFTERWARDS AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES CLOSE TO A STRONG GRADIENT OF SSTS AND EXPERIENCES
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. A FURTHER INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED THE ABOVEMENTIONED CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO
THE WEST OF MIRIAM WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS
NOW A GENERAL AGREEMENT OF BOTH THE ECWMF AND GFS GUIDANCE THAT
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE AND A RAPID
WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED RELATIVE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...REPRESENTING AN AVERAGE OF THE SHIPS/LGEM AND
THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IN
INDICATED ON DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 18.1N 113.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 18.5N 114.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 19.3N 114.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 20.1N 115.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 21.1N 115.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 23.4N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 25.5N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 27.5N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm just worried we'll get a "good" hurricane at a time when our resources are not 100%....

But I have been informed that I'm only being paranoid when I think this...
A "good" hurricane as apposed to a "bad" hurricane?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
A "good" hurricane as apposed to a "bad" hurricane?
Not sure of my spelling. 2 pp's or 2 ss's?
12z Nogaps..174 hours


Could be some computer glitch sent Pythons or Anacondas who never eat ants, hmm perhaps aliens in the system.
Quoting pottery:

Yeah ?
Well I'm sorry to say that your advice is too late.
These anteaters I just got confirm that fire ants are NOT yummy.
They seem very interested in the chickens in the garden.
Strange though, I always thought that anteaters were quadrupeds with long snouts.
These ones are 10' long, have no legs and slither along, hissing.

Trying to get the supplier on the phone, but keep getting a message that says 'Goodbye, we have gone to the South of France for 6 weeks'

They were really expensive, too....

Jelawat surely isn't the prettiest cat 5 I've seen...Seen better in the Atlantic.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Not sure of my spelling. 2 pp's or 2 ss's?
Two Os, two Ps, one S.
Jeez! Talk about the beast of the ocean. Mother Nature's beauty.




Quoting Neapolitan:
Two Os, two Ps, one S.
OOPPeSed...That's not right 2 O's?
Jelawat is ugly to me.Sorry it looked better as a cat 4.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Jelawat surely isn't the prettiest cat 5 I've seen...Seen better in the Atlantic.
Super Typhoon Tip is the Beast of all Beast, the real estate that thing covered might have made you thought you were watching the "Day After Tomorrow."
Quoting Neapolitan:
Two Os, two Ps, one S.
...Opposed?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
...Opposed?
Si, correcto...
Quoting BahaHurican:
We still don't know either way.



Thanks -- hopefully we will know something soon.
I am opposed to people typing without spellcheck...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Not sure of my spelling. 2 pp's or 2 ss's?
There are a few words in the English language that I really have a hard time with .One is Drivers Liscense.The word Liscense, I can never get it... Also, "definetley" I avoid it whenever possible
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


JMA goes bonkers to sub-900mbs.

24HF 251800UTC 16.8N 126.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 895HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 261800UTC 18.4N 124.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 895HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT


..and to think there was a time you would never see the JMA go down to such a low pressure when they forecast a cyclone.
How about a 36 dew point w/ 27% RH, in S C IL?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


..and to think there was a time you would never see the JMA go down to such a low pressure when they forecast a cyclone.


Yes,that has never occured with JMA unless they have new forecasters that are more bullish.
Tokyo Advance Dvorak Technique

2012SEP24 200100 7.1 896.9/ +2.7 /143.0

already showing sub 900 hPa..
I can't wait for daylight.

ya. Tokyo RSMC has approved lately. They just need to adjust their 10 minute sustained wind average to match the other RMSC's.

120 knots for a 8.0 Dvorak just don't work right while the other RMSC would have the winds at around 150 knots, IMO
Quoting ncstorm:
anyone see the midatlantic storm starting at 144 hours on the 12z GFS?








NE nor easter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! that would be counted as a devine blessing for me!!!!!!!
Sun, hurry.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 908.7mb/146.0kt

Quoting hydrus:
Nor,Easter in a week.?..

YES YES!! that would put an end to my BORING weather :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sun, hurry.



can't be too long.. it's 6am JST
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I can't wait for daylight.

I wish they had hurricane hunters over there to fly into the eye to see if we have the stadium effect.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I can't wait for daylight.


Here comes the sun... I want to see how great Jelawat looks in visible.
Nadine 168 days I mean hrs

Quoting sunlinepr:
Nadine 168 days I mean hrs


NE nor easter! ok I will stop now:)
Taiwan may escape Jelawat.... Japan will follow

Quoting sunlinepr:
Nadine 168 days I mean hrs


I thought it was 168 years, seems like that long.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I thought it was 168 years, seems like that long.


Anyone knows the record?
Quoting sunlinepr:
Taiwan may escape Jelawat.... Japan will follow


not impacts though...
Quoting sunlinepr:


Anyone knows the record?

28 days in 1899 i think.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I thought it was 168 years, seems like that long.

Long long storm you are right.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


can't be too long.. it's 6am JST

I can not wait either:0 we are waiting
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

NE nor easter! ok I will stop now:)


Nor easters point to the end of the Hurricane season and the begining of winter cold conditions... and the big surf waves for the N coast of the Caribbean islands...
Why did the sattellite go out and when?
Quoting sunlinepr:


Nor easters point to the end of the Hurricane season and the begining of winter cold conditions... and the big surf waves for the N coast of the Caribbean islands...

I am waiting!!!! Nor easters beat hurricanes 100 to 1 no competition at all.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

NE nor easter! ok I will stop now:)


dosent look like any cold air in place for a noreaster





ANOTHER NICE ONE TUESDAY

Sunshine will rule the sky on Tuesday thanks to a big ridge of high pressure. Temperatures will remain seasonable in the 60s to near 70. A weak front will move through on Wednesday providing the chance for showers. The end of the work week is looking pleasant and cooler. By Friday, highs will struggle to get out of the low 60s. A storm will approach at some point over the weekend. The timing is uncertain so stay tuned in the coming days.

A FROST ADVISORY has been issued for Southern Oxford County and Northern Carroll County from 2AM through 7AM. The growing season has come to an end for northern zones, therefore no more Frost Advisories will be issued there. A Frost Advisory means that frost is possible. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left outside uncovered.

My local weather station. looking forward to it!!
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

I am waiting!!!! Nor easters beat hurricanes 100 to 1 no competition at all.

I have always thought that the nor easter season should be treated the same way as the hurricane season. Storms should be named, categorized and all weather data recorded the same way....
Quoting ncstorm:


dosent look like any cold air in place for a noreaster






It'll be all rain for sure, but it does look like a good storm for the East Coast, especially the NE, this time next week.
Quoting ncstorm:


dosent look like any cold air in place for a noreaster






I dont care! it is a storm to track that wolnt wipe away whole neighborhoods. My weather has been dead boring so I want something rain ice or snow.
Quoting sunlinepr:

I have always thought that the nor easter season should be treated the same way as the hurricane season. Storms should be named, categorized and all weather data recorded the same way....

Agree like the EU or somebody over there
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It'll be all rain for sure, but it does look like a good storm for the East Coast, especially the NE, this time next week.

Ill take anything:)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Oh yes!!!! My turn for some storms!! Sorry to be greedy:)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Just awesome!.How many days is this out?.I've looked at my local forecast and rain chances increase during mid week.
000
FXUS61 KGYX 241826
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
226 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY
AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST
ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE TROF EXITS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK S/WV RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT TIMES BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME AREAS IN THE
FOOTHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S SO AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE SO
ISSUED A FROST ADVSRY FOR LATER TNGT. IN THE MTNS A HARD FREEZE
AHS ALRDY OCCURRED SO NO HEADLINES NEEDED IN THOSE AREAS. USED A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE S/WV RDG CONTS OVER THE REGION TUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING SOME
CLOUDS. TUES NIGHT ANOTHER FAST MOVING S/WV APPROACHES SPREADING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV TEMPS OVERALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. USED A COMPROMISE BTWN THE TIMING WITH THE LATEST 12Z
MODEL SUITE. THE CANADIAN GEM WAS THE SLOWEST MODEL WITH SCT
SHOWERS CONTG OVER PTNS OF THE FCST AREA RIGHT THRU THE NIGHT. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE FIRST PTN OF THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER NEW ENG FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THU AND FRI. THEREAFTER...THERE CONTS TO BE SIGNIF
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS RUN GOES
FULL TILT WITH EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
LEVELS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST...SIMILAR TO YDA AS
THE GEM AND 00Z EURO REMAINED MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS NEGATIVELY
TITLED THAN THE GFS. THESE DIFFERENCE MAY ALLOW FOR MARKED
DIFFERENCES AND MODIFICATIONS TO THE FCST LEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU TUES BECOMING MVFR IN SHWRS TUES NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR TO IFR IN SHRA WEDNESDAY THEN ENDING FROM W TO E
WEDNESDAY NGT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A CD FNT. MAINLY VFR WX THURSDAY
THRU FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND...LOWERING VSBYS AND CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN
BLO SCA THRU TUE. WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA TUES NIGHT
BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY SCA.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BRISK NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONSHORE WINDS
MAY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Look at that beautiful eye and eyewall. It really can't get any better than that:

Quoting sunlinepr:


Anyone knows the record?

I think the record is 31 days but I forget the cyclone name.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Just awesome!.How many days is this out?.I've looked at my local forecast and rain chances increase during mid week.

Hoping hoping hoping!! :)
** WTPH20 RPMM 241800 ***
T T T TYPHOON WARNING 19

AT 1800 24 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (JELAWAT) (1217) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA IN THE VICINITY OF ONE FIVE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METER PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FIVE FOUR METER PER SECOND

HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD

938 hPa.. 105 knots

---
wonder where the Philippines get their pressure data from..
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Look at that beautiful eye and eyewall. It really can't get any better than that:


VIS out yet?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Just awesome!.How many days is this out?.I've looked at my local forecast and rain chances increase during mid week.

Looks like our first chance of a good storm will be Sunday-Monday of next week, but the CPC maps indicate well above average precip for the East in the 8-14 day range as well so we may get a couple rounds of storms. Should be fun, it definitely looks like a good coastal storm for early next week.
Quoting AussieStorm:
North Atlantic 'Achilles heel' lets upper atmosphere affect the abyss

The news article never really says what the effects they modeled are. Lots of hand waving. Oh, well.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

VIS out yet?

Not quite, I think we have an hour or two before the first one is out.
Miriam's really getting hammered in its EWRC, I doubt it'll have time to recover.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Not quite, I think we have an hour or two before the first one is out.

awwww
Jelawat... in terms of location, and look, and (for the most part) intensity... is a mirror image of Sanba at its peak.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Looks like our first chance of a good storm will be Sunday-Monday of next week, but the CPC maps indicate well above average precip for the East in the 8-14 day range as well so we may get a couple rounds of storms. Should be fun, it definitely looks like a good coastal storm for early next week.
I'm looking forward!.We have a 6" deficit hear in terms of rain and that would really benefit our drought.Hoping this continues into the winter.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Looks like our first chance of a good storm will be Sunday-Monday of next week, but the CPC maps indicate well above average precip for the East in the 8-14 day range as well so we may get a couple rounds of storms. Should be fun, it definitely looks like a good coastal storm for early next week.

Yes Yes YEs !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HOPE SO SO SO SO SO much!!!!!
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

I dont care! it is a storm to track that wolnt wipe away whole neighborhoods. My weather has been dead boring so I want something rain ice or snow.

Reminds me of that oobleck story.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm looking forward!.We have a 6" deficit hear in terms of rain and that would really benefit our drought.Hoping this continues into the winter.

Snowy winter would be good last "winter" was bad
Quoting wxchaser97:

I think the record is 31 days but I forget the cyclone name.


was it Tropical Cyclone John? it lasted about a month.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


was it Tropical Cyclone John? it lasted about a month.

Yes, Hurricane John in 1994 PHS.

August 10-September 11, 1994.

Anyone on twitter here? Follow StormForce_1
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Snowy winter would be good last "winter" was bad
Last winter was just so bland.We had thunderstorms except for snowstorms...
The sun is rising on Ewiniar. Won't be long for Jelawat.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
TYPHOON JELAWAT (T1217)
6:00 AM JST September 25 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Jelawat (905 hPa) located at 15.5N 127.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 17.4N 126.5E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 18.4N 124.7E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
69 HRS: 20.2N 122.8E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


was it Tropical Cyclone John? it lasted about a month.

Yup it is hurricane John, from August 10-September 11th.
First high resolution image from GOES-14.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/avn-l.jpg

What the heck? LOL. I guess they haven't fixed the satellites....

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC. GOES-E IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING AN OUTAGE.
GOES-W IS IN FULL DISK MODE TO PROVIDE IMAGERY OVER THE CONUS
AND GULF OF MEXICO.


Where are the satellite images for Nadine coming from then?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/avn-l.jpg

What the heck? LOL. I guess they haven't fixed the satellites....

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC. GOES-E IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING AN OUTAGE.
GOES-W IS IN FULL DISK MODE TO PROVIDE IMAGERY OVER THE CONUS
AND GULF OF MEXICO.


Where are the satellite images for Nadine coming from then?


It is obviously the death line of storms headed for us, jk. The sounding system is not working and other satellites are covering the Atlantic. They are either coming from the European satellite or GOES west. The problem is not the end of the world and will be most likely fixed.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/avn-l.jpg

What the heck? LOL. I guess they haven't fixed the satellites....

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC. GOES-E IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING AN OUTAGE.
GOES-W IS IN FULL DISK MODE TO PROVIDE IMAGERY OVER THE CONUS
AND GULF OF MEXICO.


Where are the satellite images for Nadine coming from then?
Meteosat.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/avn-l.jpg

What the heck? LOL. I guess they haven't fixed the satellites....

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC. GOES-E IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING AN OUTAGE.
GOES-W IS IN FULL DISK MODE TO PROVIDE IMAGERY OVER THE CONUS
AND GULF OF MEXICO.


Where are the satellite images for Nadine coming from then?

The 500 other satellites (exaggeration) available at our disposal?
Quoting wxchaser97:


It is obviously the death line of storms headed for us, jk. The sounding system is not working and other satellites are covering the Atlantic. They are either coming from the European satellite or GOES west. The problem is not the end of the world and will be most likely fixed.


LOL...I think this "death-line" is false cold cloud tops as the edge of the GOES-W scan climbs higher and higher into the atmosphere..which inherently is colder...given the false sense of cold clouds on the edge of the scan...

I guess its sorta like how doppler radar's scans are higher and higher the further you are from the doppler site. That is why precip you see on the edges of a doppler scan maybe virga (precip not making it to the ground)....
241. wxmod
MODIS today. Pacific NW

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 500 other satellites (exaggeration) available at our disposal?

All I use for satellites is on the NHC webpage...which is probably why I don't know much about the others...LOL

Quoting Thing342:
Meteosat.

I don't like Meteosat...because it updates only every 6 hours on the NHC webpage. Maybe on other pages it updates more frequently...
Oh boy..

245. wxmod
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


we got a taste of fall here too.
it tastes bad.....
Cool Fall Weather is boring...
It's cold at my morning swim practice here
43F = Brrrrrrrr.


Are you practicing in as outdoor pool? That would be a ploar bear plunge, for sure.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I am opposed to people typing without spellcheck...


What is spellcheck?
Wow, that's all I can say.
Quoting Grothar:


What is spellcheck?


Eye have a spelling chequer,
It came with my Pea Sea.
It plane lee marks four my revue
Miss Steaks I can knot sea.

Eye strike the quays and type a whirred
And weight four it two say
Weather eye am write oar wrong
It tells me straight a weigh.

Eye ran this poem threw it,
Your shore real glad two no.
Its vary polished in its weigh.
My chequer tolled me sew.

A chequer is a bless thing,
It freeze yew lodes of thyme.
It helps me right all stiles of righting,
And aides me when eye rime.

Each frays come posed up on my screen
Eye trussed too bee a joule.
The chequer pours o'er every word
Two cheque sum spelling rule.

Quoting Grothar:


What is spellcheck?


Eye even no that.
252. N3EG
Quoting sunlinepr:

I have always thought that the nor easter season should be treated the same way as the hurricane season. Storms should be named, categorized and all weather data recorded the same way....


How about for Pacific NW storms too, while we're at it? Like "Severe Bombing Low #3"...
Quoting wxchaser97:

I think the record is 31 days but I forget the cyclone name.


An unnamed storm holds the records for the late 1800;s. IIRC.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Eye even no that.

U doo do u, eye can c that:)

Jelawat is a strong typhoon that hopefully won't hit land.
The GFS isn't as sold on the East Coast storm this run. It keeps it pretty far offshore and doesn't really develop it until after it passes us. Classic Nor'Easter model behavior. They flip and flop on strength, distance from shore, etc. and usually don't get consistency until about 3 days out from the event.



Quoting Dakster:


An unnamed storm holds the records for the late 1800;s. IIRC.

It is Hurricane John from 1994, he reached cat5 status and lived the longest.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The GFS isn't as sold on the East Coast storm this run. It keeps it pretty far offshore and doesn't really develop it until after it passes us. Classic Nor'Easter model behavior. They flip and flop on strength, distance from shore, etc. and usually don't get consistency until about 3 days out from the event.




There are two things that are consistent though, the GFS showing a nor'easter of some sort and keeping Nadine alive.
Looks like the 18z GFS called off the East Coast rider storm but tries to develop something in the GOM and takes it inland
150 hours


174 hours


192 hours
Quoting wxchaser97:
Wow, that's all I can say.

Well, you just said, "that's all I can say", so I doubt "Wow" is all you can say.
Climate migrant remittances could help adaptation – experts

Mon, 24 Sep 2012 23:00 GMT
Source: Alertnet

By Laurie Goering

LONDON (AlertNet) – Migration linked with climate change is more likely to involve a steady step-up in existing patterns of movement around the world than the sudden surges of desperate refugees many governments fear, climate and migration experts say.

Many argue, in fact, that migration – if prepared for and managed – could prove one of the most effective means of adapting to climate change and building resilience to its impacts, particularly if migrants send remittances home.

“When we think of climate migration, we think of areas emptying, of what happens if 10,000 people leave,” said Dan Smith, the head of International Alert, a London-based peace-building organisation. But much current - and probably future - migration focuses instead on people saying, “We’re a family. I’ll go, you stay. I’ll send some money home so you can survive.”
Wow, check that trough out:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, you just said, "that's all I can say", so I doubt "Wow" is all you can say.

No, wow is all he can say. He's Jason in disguise.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Eye even no that.


Tiwt
18z Nogaps..


Quoting MAweatherboy1:

No, wow is all he can say. He's Jason in disguise.

Obviously I am Jason in disguise, not. I was just saying Jelawat is looking really good.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, you just said, "that's all I can say", so I doubt "Wow" is all you can say.

Ok Mr. Technical, wow is a word that describes Jelawat but isn't the only word I can say.
Quoting wxchaser97:

It is Hurricane John from 1994, he reached cat5 status and lived the longest.


Longest lasting ATLANTIC Hurricane was an unnamed storm in 1899, lasted 33 days.

http://www.hurricaneville.com/longest_lasting.php

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Eye have a spelling chequer,
It came with my Pea Sea.
It plane lee marks four my revue
Miss Steaks I can knot sea.

Eye strike the quays and type a whirred
And weight four it two say
Weather eye am write oar wrong
It tells me straight a weigh.

Eye ran this poem threw it,
Your shore real glad two no.
Its vary polished in its weigh.
My chequer tolled me sew.

A chequer is a bless thing,
It freeze yew lodes of thyme.
It helps me right all stiles of righting,
And aides me when eye rime.

Each frays come posed up on my screen
Eye trussed too bee a joule.
The chequer pours o'er every word
Two cheque sum spelling rule.




Classique.
Quoting Grothar:



Classique.


That was easy to read compared to some other posts on the site.
Quoting Dakster:


Longest lasting ATLANTIC Hurricane was an unnamed storm in 1899, lasted 33 days.

http://www.hurricaneville.com/longest_lasting.php


Ahhh, thanks for pointing that out.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, check that trough out:



And there is nothing in terms of Tropical Development. Will the North Atlantic 2012 season have at least two more named systems or is over?
Quoting Dakster:


Longest lasting ATLANTIC Hurricane was an unnamed storm in 1899, lasted 33 days.

http://www.hurricaneville.com/longest_lasting.php




The original version of the "Eye have a spelling chequer" poem
was written by Jerrold H. Zar in 1992. An unsophisticated spell checker will find little or no fault with this poem because it checks words in isolation. A more sophisticated spell checker will make use of a language model to consider the context in which a word occurs.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spell_checker
Quoting Dakster:


Longest lasting ATLANTIC Hurricane was an unnamed storm in 1899, lasted 33 days.

http://www.hurricaneville.com/longest_lasting.php



Some of those days were spent as an extratropical storm over high latitudes. Strictly speaking, the longest-lived tropical cyclone is probably Kyle or Ginger or something. Not sure offhand.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Some of those days were spent as an extratropical storm over high latitudes. Strictly speaking, the longest-lived tropical cyclone is probably Kyle or Ginger or something. Not sure offhand.
The 1899 storm: August 3-22, August 26-September 4. 28 total tropical days, higher than Ginger.
Quoting Dakster:


Longest lasting ATLANTIC Hurricane was an unnamed storm in 1899, lasted 33 days.

http://www.hurricaneville.com/longest_lasting.php



That almost hit my house!
http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2012/09/pl anned_gulf_lease_sale_to_ope.html



Planned Gulf Lease sale to open 38 million acres for drilling.

The Obama administration announced plans Monday to auction 38 million acres of offshore oil and natural gas leases in the central Gulf of Mexico next year, the second lease sale in a year in the same area where BP's Macondo well erupted in April 2010
280. wxmod
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Climate migrant remittances could help adaptation – experts

Mon, 24 Sep 2012 23:00 GMT
Source: Alertnet

By Laurie Goering

LONDON (AlertNet) – Migration linked with climate change is more likely to involve a steady step-up in existing patterns of movement around the world than the sudden surges of desperate refugees many governments fear, climate and migration experts say.

Many argue, in fact, that migration – if prepared for and managed – could prove one of the most effective means of adapting to climate change and building resilience to its impacts, particularly if migrants send remittances home.

“When we think of climate migration, we think of areas emptying, of what happens if 10,000 people leave,” said Dan Smith, the head of International Alert, a London-based peace-building organisation. But much current - and probably future - migration focuses instead on people saying, “We’re a family. I’ll go, you stay. I’ll send some money home so you can survive.”


Won't be a home to send money to, unless they live under water.
nicely done Jelewat ;)
Quoting Thing342:
The 1899 storm: August 3-22, August 26-September 4. 28 total tropical days, higher than Ginger.


After delving a little deeper, I suppose the 1899 storm is not touted as the longest-lived storm for no reason. Even Inga and Alberto were off by a few days.

My bad guys.
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
nicely done Jelewat ;)


If I had enough Jelewat's, I could travel back in time to 1985.
It's been cloudy around Colorado most of the day, but we've gotten a few patches of clear sky this afternoon. I know it doesn't pertain to the current blog, but I wanted to share this beautiful light on the peaking fall colors from a webcam near Crested Butte, CO.


(Click image to embiggen)

(EDIT - 10 minutes later and the light is already flat again. But if you like mountains and aspens in the fall I highly recommend keeping an eye on this webcam... it's a beautiful view).
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


If I had enough Jelewat's, I could travel back in time to 1985.

You need enough to hit 88mph and you need a flux capacitor, something I currently own.

Dang, that is a classique eyewall and eye.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


If I had enough Jelewat's, I could travel back in time to 1985.
O-O i don't get it
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
O-O i don't get it


Link

Come on. I was born in 1991 and I still know that much, lol. :P
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
O-O i don't get it

It's from the movie Back To The Future, and it mentions Jelawat.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Link

Come on. I was born in 1991 and I still know that much, lol. :P

Really? I'm impressed.

Join chat.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Climate migrant remittances could help adaptation – experts

Mon, 24 Sep 2012 23:00 GMT
Source: Alertnet

By Laurie Goering

LONDON (AlertNet) – Migration linked with climate change is more likely to involve a steady step-up in existing patterns of movement around the world than the sudden surges of desperate refugees many governments fear, climate and migration experts say.

Many argue, in fact, that migration – if prepared for and managed – could prove one of the most effective means of adapting to climate change and building resilience to its impacts, particularly if migrants send remittances home.

“When we think of climate migration, we think of areas emptying, of what happens if 10,000 people leave,” said Dan Smith, the head of International Alert, a London-based peace-building organisation. But much current - and probably future - migration focuses instead on people saying, “We’re a family. I’ll go, you stay. I’ll send some money home so you can survive.”

So these guys are predicting more of the same. Seems the same is causing problems already. Hardly seems like "building resilience". Boy, that is a piece of newspeak.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Really? I'm impressed.

Join chat.

Really, so you want a repeat of last night, fine by me I guess.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Really, so you want a repeat of last night, fine by me I guess.

What did we do last night?
Somewhere, Sam Clemens made some remarks about spelling and his disdain for it being done "by the book" that I could not find, that led to this;

The Futility of Spelling Reform
Mark Twain, Andrew Carnegie, and the Rotten English Alphabet


Do you think ol Andy Carnegie was texting too?

I have transcribed a lot of quill pen primary sources and have come to love phonetic spelling. In the days before tape recorders, it tells us how they were actually saying the word.

Tiwt.. laughed out loud

279 CRS I wonder if gas prices will drop in response. Election is looming near here.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What did we do last night?

You should remember but I won't say it here. What is your thoughts on Jelawat?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


If I had enough Jelewat's, I could travel back in time to 1985.
hahaha i get it now
Quoting MrMixon:
It's been cloudy around Colorado most of the day, but we've gotten a few patches of clear sky this afternoon. I know it doesn't pertain to the current blog, but I wanted to share this beautiful light on the peaking fall colors from a webcam near Crested Butte, CO.


(Click image to embiggen)

(EDIT - 10 minutes later and the light is already flat again. But if you like mountains and aspens in the fall I highly recommend keeping an eye on this webcam... it's a beautiful view).
nice shot
Quoting wxchaser97:

It's from the movie Back To The Future, and it mentions Jelawat.


No, it mentions "Gigawatts" which was incorrectly pronounced "Jiggawatts" in one scene, if I remember correctly.
Wikipedia:

"The aim of Newspeak is to remove all shades of meaning from language, leaving simple concepts (pleasure and pain, happiness and sadness, goodthink and crimethink) that reinforce the total dominance of the State. Newspeak root words serve as both nouns and verbs, further reducing the total number of words; for example, "think" is both noun and verb, so the word thought is not required and can be abolished. The party also intends that Newspeak be spoken in staccato rhythms with syllables that are easy to pronounce. This will make speech more automatic and unconscious and reduce the likelihood of thought."
JMA Model
Quoting RTSplayer:


No, it mentions "Gigawatts" which was incorrectly pronounced "Jiggawatts" in one scene, if I remember correctly.

It was something close to it, I don't exactly remember.
Quoting wxchaser97:

You should remember but I won't say it here. What is your thoughts on Jelawat?

It is a typhoon.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is a typhoon.

Please don't start that stuff, I mean on how strong it will get and where it will go.
Quoting RTSplayer:


No, it mentions "Gigawatts" which was incorrectly pronounced "Jiggawatts" in one scene, if I remember correctly.


Of course, that was before the invention of Mr. Fusion.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Please don't start that stuff, I mean on how strong it will get and where it will go.

Well, it will get as strong as it should, and it will where to be where it is steered.
Hmm, with the GOES-13 out of commission, I'm glad we don't have anything coming this way. As Sar said, we'd be going backwards in forecasting for a bit.
Link

Looks like another big blow coming up for Okinawa at the end of the week.




September 24, 2012: GOES-13 (East) has experienced a malfunction and is unable to generate imagery. Engineers are working on a fix and an estimated return to service is undetermined at this time. GOES-14 imagery is being relayed through GOES-13 ...

UPDATE: As of 17:45 UTC on 24 September, GOES-14 replaced GOES-13 as the operational GOES-East satellite (NOAA/NESDIS notification message).
Goes, went, gone...


okay, goodnight.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Eye have a spelling chequer,
It came with my Pea Sea.
It plane lee marks four my revue
Miss Steaks I can knot sea.

Eye strike the quays and type a whirred
And weight four it two say
Weather eye am write oar wrong
It tells me straight a weigh.

Eye ran this poem threw it,
Your shore real glad two no.
Its vary polished in its weigh.
My chequer tolled me sew.

A chequer is a bless thing,
It freeze yew lodes of thyme.
It helps me right all stiles of righting,
And aides me when eye rime.

Each frays come posed up on my screen
Eye trussed too bee a joule.
The chequer pours o'er every word
Two cheque sum spelling rule.



Okay You asked for it. Don't blame me.

From a Psychologist friend.

7H15 M3554G3 53RV35 7O PR0V3
H0W 0UR M1ND5 C4N D0 4M4Z1NG 7H1NG5!
1MPR3551V3 7H1NG5!
1N 7H3 B3G1NN1NG 17 WA5 H4RD BU7
N0W, 0N 7H15 LIN3 Y0UR M1ND 1S
R34D1NG 17 4U70M471C4LLY
W17H 0U7 3V3N 7H1NK1NG 4B0U7 17,
B3 PROUD! 0NLY C3R741N P30PL3 C4N
R3AD 7H15. PL3453 F0RW4RD 1F
U C4N R34D 7H15.


Miriam begins to go down.

EP, 13, 2012092500, , BEST, 0, 183N, 1137W, 90, 968, HU
Quoting clamshell:


Okay You asked for it. Don't blame me.

From a Psychologist friend.

7H15 M3554G3 53RV35 7O PR0V3
H0W 0UR M1ND5 C4N D0 4M4Z1NG 7H1NG5!
1MPR3551V3 7H1NG5!
1N 7H3 B3G1NN1NG 17 WA5 H4RD BU7
N0W, 0N 7H15 LIN3 Y0UR M1ND 1S
R34D1NG 17 4U70M471C4LLY
W17H 0U7 3V3N 7H1NK1NG 4B0U7 17,
B3 PROUD! 0NLY C3R741N P30PL3 C4N
R3AD 7H15. PL3453 F0RW4RD 1F
U C4N R34D 7H15.




Easy. When you can translate Taz, everything else is easy.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Eye have a spelling chequer,
It came with my Pea Sea.
It plane lee marks four my revue
Miss Steaks I can knot sea.

Eye strike the quays and type a whirred
And weight four it two say
Weather eye am write oar wrong
It tells me straight a weigh.

Eye ran this poem threw it,
Your shore real glad two no.
Its vary polished in its weigh.
My chequer tolled me sew.

A chequer is a bless thing,
It freeze yew lodes of thyme.
It helps me right all stiles of righting,
And aides me when eye rime.

Each frays come posed up on my screen
Eye trussed too bee a joule.
The chequer pours o'er every word
Two cheque sum spelling rule.



And this.

"Can you raed this? Olny 55 plepoe out of 100 can. I cdnuolt blveiee that I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd what I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno't mtaetr in what oerdr the ltteres in a word are, the olny iproamtnt tihng is that the frsit and last ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can still raed it whotuit a pboerlm. This is bcuseaethe huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the word as a wlohe. Azanmig huh? Yaeh and I awlyas tghuhot slpeling was ipmorantt! If you can raed this forwrad it."


Now...Does spelling really matter? Hmmm. :-)


This would be interesting. This 18z GFS ensemble member appears to show Nadine getting forced southeast by a building high and heading towards landfall in Africa:

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Miriam begins to go down.

EP, 13, 2012092500, , BEST, 0, 183N, 1137W, 90, 968, HU


Down to 105 mph. Miriam is beginning the weakening trend.

Quoting clamshell:


And this.

"Can you raed this? Olny 55 plepoe out of 100 can. I cdnuolt blveiee that I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd what I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno't mtaetr in what oerdr the ltteres in a word are, the olny iproamtnt tihng is that the frsit and last ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can still raed it whotuit a pboerlm. This is bcuseaethe huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the word as a wlohe. Azanmig huh? Yaeh and I awlyas tghuhot slpeling was ipmorantt! If you can raed this forwrad it."




Easy again. Does this mean I am smarter than the average bear?
Super Typhoon Jelawat:

AL, 14, 2012092500, , BEST, 0, 322N, 287W, 40, 996, TS,
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
AL, 14, 2012092500, , BEST, 0, 322N, 287W, 40, 996, TS,


ATCF says Nadine weakens to 45 mph.
Quoting KoritheMan:


After delving a little deeper, I suppose the 1899 storm is not touted as the longest-lived storm for no reason. Even Inga and Alberto were off by a few days.

My bad guys.


How do we know for sure the 1899 storm wasn't 2 storms? Without satellites how can the tracking be accurate.

fyi, in this instance I'm using the "satellite argument" as a counter to measuring too accurately.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
AL, 14, 2012092500, , BEST, 0, 322N, 287W, 40, 996, TS,

Well Nadine isn't looking too good but I still want her to live on.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Miriam begins to go down.

EP, 13, 2012092500, , BEST, 0, 183N, 1137W, 90, 968, HU

Not surprised with the eye gone, remember these are not official and only the NHC is.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This would be interesting. This 18z GFS ensemble member appears to show Nadine getting forced southeast by a building high and heading towards landfall in Africa:


It is still a possibility, the GDFL also shows a track towards Africa.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Well Nadine isn't looking too good but I still want her to live on.


Not surprised with the eye gone, remember these are not official and only the NHC is.


Yes. The NHC is official.
Jelawat remains impressive.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Jelawat is still looking stellar, but has not, and won't be, annular due to all of the banding.
Quoting clamshell:


And this.

"Can you raed this? Olny 55 plepoe out of 100 can. I cdnuolt blveiee that I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd what I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno't mtaetr in what oerdr the ltteres in a word are, the olny iproamtnt tihng is that the frsit and last ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can still raed it whotuit a pboerlm. This is bcuseaethe huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the word as a wlohe. Azanmig huh? Yaeh and I awlyas tghuhot slpeling was ipmorantt! If you can raed this forwrad it."


Now...Does spelling really matter? Hmmm. :-)




I suppose that the spelling of words, such as brake or break, would not even matter once you have put them into context. ... Well, I am going to take a brek.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Easy again. Does this mean I am smarter than the average bear?


You misspelled that, Geoff. The proper spelling would be "beer". Smarter than the average beer. ..... hic
Quoting clamshell:


Now...Does spelling really matter? Hmmm. :-)



Yes. Messing with the average human mind may be fun, but it's still rude and inconsiderate to those who may be more, less, or just different than average.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This would be interesting. This 18z GFS ensemble member appears to show Nadine getting forced southeast by a building high and heading towards landfall in Africa:

would be cool to see but bad for Africa.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



This is an old internet hoax. You can look it up yourself I wont go into detail as its not worth the time.


Thank you for taking the time to post that Doug :)
340. wxmod
MODIS today
This reminds me of what european pre-Columbus sailors believed... the earth is flat... there is a border and if you reach it you will fall throutg it...

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


was it Tropical Cyclone John? it lasted about a month.
I'm impressed.
Nadine

345. wxmod
Im confused... can anyone help me out...

HOW COME SANBA MOVED SLOWLY THROUGH THE SAME AREA JELAWAT IS MOVING NOW...DIDN'T SANBA TOOK MOST OF THOSE WARM WATERS? HOW CAN THAT SAME AREA SUPPORT A CAT 5 WHEN ANOTHER ONE MOVED THAT SAME WAY LAST WEEK? Those waters never cool after a storm goes by?
Jelawat looks more intense than 140 knots now.

JTWC has a decent percentage of the world's population in Jelawats path.

Quoting Civicane49:

Miriam is exactly the type of storm that can cause big problems with flash flooding in eastern CA, AZ, and NM. She may not do much as a hurricane, but her remnants may be turn out to be the big news.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im confused... can anyone help me out...

HOW COME SANBA MOVED SLOWLY THROUGH THE SAME AREA JELAWAT IS MOVING NOW...DIDN'T SANBA TOOK MOST OF THOSE WARM WATERS? HOW CAN THAT SAME AREA SUPPORT A CAT 5 WHEN ANOTHER ONE MOVED THAT SAME WAY LAST WEEK? Those waters never cool after a storm goes by?


Sanba was barely a scratch on the surface of the warm waters that go quite deep.



Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im confused... can anyone help me out...

HOW COME SANBA MOVED SLOWLY THROUGH THE SAME AREA JELAWAT IS MOVING NOW...DIDN'T SANBA TOOK MOST OF THOSE WARM WATERS? HOW CAN THAT SAME AREA SUPPORT A CAT 5 WHEN ANOTHER ONE MOVED THAT SAME WAY LAST WEEK? Those waters never cool after a storm goes by?


You underestimate the vastness of the heat reservoir in this basin:

Oh for **** sake, Slam. lol
353. wxmod
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im confused... can anyone help me out...

HOW COME SANBA MOVED SLOWLY THROUGH THE SAME AREA JELAWAT IS MOVING NOW...DIDN'T SANBA TOOK MOST OF THOSE WARM WATERS? HOW CAN THAT SAME AREA SUPPORT A CAT 5 WHEN ANOTHER ONE MOVED THAT SAME WAY LAST WEEK? Those waters never cool after a storm goes by?


Look what's feeding Jelawat
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im confused... can anyone help me out...

HOW COME SANBA MOVED SLOWLY THROUGH THE SAME AREA JELAWAT IS MOVING NOW...DIDN'T SANBA TOOK MOST OF THOSE WARM WATERS? HOW CAN THAT SAME AREA SUPPORT A CAT 5 WHEN ANOTHER ONE MOVED THAT SAME WAY LAST WEEK? Those waters never cool after a storm goes by?


There is a cool spot where Jelawat is right now in TCHP.



Although there is no reflection for a SST reduction in the same area. Just the power of the WPac basin and amazing atmospheric conditions. Storms like Jelawat are truly common here in most years, with an average of 4 of them per year. Storms like Sanba are rarer (although still not bad), about one every 2 years.
Did I honestly get double ninja'd? XD
I think we've seen enough of the TCHP map, lol.
Hello, boys and girls.
Quoting bluheelrtx:

Yes. Messing with the average human mind may be fun, but it's still rude and inconsiderate to those who may be more, less, or just different than average.


Are you saying that you couldn't read it?

Maybe the folks who conducted the research at Cambridge University ( did they or didn't they ) would like to talk to you.

I'm just saying.

:-)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Oh for **** sake, Slam. lol


You both get an "A".
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im confused... can anyone help me out...

HOW COME SANBA MOVED SLOWLY THROUGH THE SAME AREA JELAWAT IS MOVING NOW...DIDN'T SANBA TOOK MOST OF THOSE WARM WATERS? HOW CAN THAT SAME AREA SUPPORT A CAT 5 WHEN ANOTHER ONE MOVED THAT SAME WAY LAST WEEK? Those waters never cool after a storm goes by?

The waters in that area are much more shallow then in the mid-Atlantic. There is less depth for cold water, and the climate supports warm SST's almost year round. When a large cyclone moves through the area, the same type of upwelling occurs but it's fairly warm water compared to deeper ocean basins.

This also shows that SST's are just one piece of the puzzle when to comes to how strong a storm can get. The number of times "rocket fuel" was used to describe the water in the Gulf and western Caribbean has been more than the grains of sand on all the world's beaches, yet nothing has been seen of the rapid intensification that many were predicting from any storm that got in those waters.
Quoting Grothar:
Hello, boys and girls.

Good evening, Gro. How are things down in blob land? :)
362. wxmod
Quoting clamshell:


Are you saying that you couldn't read it?

Maybe the folks who conducted the research at Cambridge University ( did they or didn't they ) would like to talk to you.

I'm just saying.

:-)

That gibberish s a good example of why eyewitness testimony is so unreliable. Humans tend to unconsciously fill in details in the middle when they see the begining and end of an event in much the same way humans can read the apparently unreadable. The human mind is a strange and wonderful thing.
TROPICAL UPDATE
____________________

Tropical Storm NADINE
Major Hurricane Miriam

Super Typhoon Jelawat
Tropical Storm Ewiniar



risk-free 4x bigger pic here...!
Quoting wxmod:

This is probably a silly question, but is there some reason you continue to post random pictures of clouds in places like the Pacific NW and pictures of obvious transmission errors in satellite photos? I assume there's a conspiracy theory that explains it all.
Quoting sar2401:

Good evening, Gro. How are things down in blob land? :)



OK, just watching the language lessons. Did you know that the average English speaking person can recognize more than 100,000 variations of the English alphabet.

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 29.0W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 90SE 90SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 480SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 29.0W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 28.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.2N 29.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.5N 30.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.7N 30.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.9N 30.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 29.0N 31.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 29.5N 32.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 31.0N 34.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 29.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 24 2012

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION...EXTENT...AND
INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE. BANDING
FEATURES REMAIN ILL-DEFINED AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE FOUND IN
A CLUSTER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED HIGHEST WINDS OF 35 KT AND...EVEN
ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOW BIAS OF THESE DATA...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY HIGHER THAN 40 KT AT THIS TIME. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET TO THE LATTER VALUE...WHICH REMAINS ABOVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THERE IS INCREASED OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOW CUT OFF TO THE
SOUTH OF NADINE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TRAVERSE A WARMER OCEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS OR SO...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT
NOW APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A WESTWARD COURSE WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF ABOUT 280/6. FORECASTING THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE REMAINS A CHALLENGE. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADINE WILL APPARENTLY CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND...BRIEFLY...SOUTHWARD DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD...
THE STORM SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE RIGHT AND HEAD NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE
DIVERGENT AT DAYS 4-5...SO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS OF
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 32.2N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 32.2N 29.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 31.5N 30.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 30.7N 30.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 29.9N 30.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 29.0N 31.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 29.5N 32.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 31.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
thanks to all of you who answered..I have things clear now...
HURRICANE MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 113.9W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 113.9W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.8N 114.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.7N 115.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.7N 115.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 25.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 27.0N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2012

...MIRIAM BEGINS TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 113.9W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
HURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2012

MIRIAM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE EYE HAS BECOME
OVERCAST AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTER RECENTLY.
MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE INNER EYEWALL...WHICH WAS
EVIDENT IN A TRMM PASS AROUND 17Z...HAS COLLAPSED. IN ADDITION...
THE LATEST SSMI OVERPASS SHOWED AN ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE...WHICH IS
LIKELY THE RESULT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED THIS CYCLE...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
LOWERED TO 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS.

A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MIRIAM...INCREASES A LITTLE. LATER IN THE
WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR 30N 130W. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE A FURTHER INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. IN FACT...VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TITLED VORTEX THAT IS BEING AFFECTED
BY A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR AND WESTERLY FLOW IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AIDS.

MIRIAM CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS MIRIAM MOVES TOWARD A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. BEYOND THAT TIME...A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST AS MIRIAM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE
EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 18.5N 113.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 19.8N 114.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.7N 115.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 21.8N 115.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 23.7N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 25.5N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 27.0N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Quoting Grothar:



OK, just watching the language lessons. Did you know that the average English speaking person can recognize more than 100,000 variations of the English alphabet.



Yes. I use all 100,000 variations of the English alphabet. Yet, then again, I know fewer than 300 words so I have to use every variation that I can make up. ... Uh, I mean that I know.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:




September 24, 2012: GOES-13 (East) has experienced a malfunction and is unable to generate imagery. Engineers are working on a fix and an estimated return to service is undetermined at this time. GOES-14 imagery is being relayed through GOES-13 ...

UPDATE: As of 17:45 UTC on 24 September, GOES-14 replaced GOES-13 as the operational GOES-East satellite (NOAA/NESDIS notification message).


"It's dead, Jim". :)
THE CENTER JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A WESTWARD COURSE WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 280/6. FORECASTING THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS A CHALLENGE. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADINE WILL APPARENTLY CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND...BRIEFLY...SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE AFTER...AS THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD... THE STORM SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE RIGHT AND HEAD NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE DIVERGENT AT DAYS 4-5...

um.... ok...
Quoting Grothar:



OK, just watching the language lessons. Did you know that the average English speaking person can recognize more than 100,000 variations of the English alphabet.


Yes indeed. By my own personal count, more than 99,950 have been used in this blog at one time or another. :)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes. I use all 100,000 variations of the English alphabet. Yet, then again, I know fewer than 300 words so I have to use every variation that I can make up. ... Uh, I mean that I know.


I have a funny feeling you may know a little more than 300.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
THE CENTER JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A WESTWARD COURSE WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 280/6. FORECASTING THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS A CHALLENGE. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADINE WILL APPARENTLY CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND...BRIEFLY...SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE AFTER...AS THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD... THE STORM SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE RIGHT AND HEAD NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE DIVERGENT AT DAYS 4-5...

um.... ok...

I'm sorry, but that description makes me too dizzy to understand what it means. :)
Quoting sar2401:

Yes indeed. By my own personal count, more than 99,950 have been used in this blog at one time or another. :)


Oooh. Good shot.
Quoting sar2401:

I'm sorry, but that description makes me too dizzy to understand what it means. :)


Just draw a circle. I think they don't know where it is going either. Who would have guessed it would ever move back west and linger for days.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Climate migrant remittances could help adaptation – experts

Mon, 24 Sep 2012 23:00 GMT
Source: Alertnet

By Laurie Goering

LONDON (AlertNet) – Migration linked with climate change is more likely to involve a steady step-up in existing patterns of movement around the world than the sudden surges of desperate refugees many governments fear, climate and migration experts say.

Many argue, in fact, that migration – if prepared for and managed – could prove one of the most effective means of adapting to climate change and building resilience to its impacts, particularly if migrants send remittances home.

“When we think of climate migration, we think of areas emptying, of what happens if 10,000 people leave,” said Dan Smith, the head of International Alert, a London-based peace-building organisation. But much current - and probably future - migration focuses instead on people saying, “We’re a family. I’ll go, you stay. I’ll send some money home so you can survive.”

This already happened. From about 1940 until 2000, California experienced the largest non-mandated migration growth in human history, growing from 6.9 million in 1940 to 33.8 million in 2000, an increase of 490% over 60 years. This growth was mostly due to economic opportunities and a salubrious climate. Almost 27 million people came from somewhere else to settle in California. Much the same thing will happen anywhere in the face of any substantial changes, including climate changes. Humans are very adaptable animals.
Quoting Grothar:

Aha! The mark of Zorro, first attacking Spain, and then reversing directions and attacking Morocco. One has to wonder what kind of data is fed into the back end to get this kind of track out the front end. :)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #18
TYPHOON LAWIN (JELAWAT)
11:00 AM PhST September 25 2012
==================================

Typhoon "LAWIN" intensifies as it moves north northwestward

At 10:00 AM PhSt, Typhoon Lawin (Jelawat) [933 hPa] located at 16.0°N 127.7°E or 520 km east of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Isabela
2. Cagayan
3. Calayan
4. Babuyan Group of Islands

Additional Information
=====================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 800 km diameter of the typhoon.

Southwest monsoon enhanced by the Typhoon will continue to bring moderate to heavy rains in southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and the seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao due to big waves generated by Typhoon "LAWIN".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Quoting Grothar:


Just draw a circle. I think they don't know where it is going either. Who would have guessed it would ever move back west and linger for days.

Certainly, it had to be someone with a vivid imagination to dream up such a thing....;)
Quoting Grothar:


I have a funny feeling you may know a little more than 300.


I might be able to double or triple that word count, .... if I happen to be eating a peanut butter sandwich when I talk.
Quoting Grothar:
Hello, boys and girls.

Good evening Gro :)
Nadine, you bore me. Do something slightly exciting and become a hurricane or something because you look pretty pitiful at the moment. At least you might be one of the most long lived storms in the atlantic basin (how exciting!). Miriam please bring me some rain with your remnants!!
Quoting Grothar:

Spagetti models, are seriously spagetti... thinking of Spagetti makes me hungry. Brb.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Spagetti models, are seriously spagetti... thinking of Spagetti makes me hungry. Brb.

Funny thing about this is, I just ate about 30 minutes ago :)
Sep 24, 2012
GOES-14 Replaces GOES-13 as the GOES East Satellite
After the GOES-13 satellite experienced issues with data from the imager and sounder instruments for the last several days, the GOES-14 satellite has been activated and has replaced GOES-13 as the NOAA operational GOES East satellite. Around a month ago, GOES-14 was taken out of storage and activated for routine maneuvers and several experiments in preparation for the next generation GOES-R satellite. GOES-14 will remain the primary GOES satellite over the Atlantic basin and Continental U.S. until the imager and sounder data issues on GOES-13 can be fully diagnosed and hopefully fixed. NOAA maintains backup GOES satellites in case unforeseen events occur, providing full redundancy for monitoring severe weather over the U.S. and its territories.


Quoting Chicklit:
Goes, went, gone...

Looks like Iran was "Doing it Wrong" when it comes to making nukes... They made a blackhole.
Quoting sar2401:

The waters in that area are much more shallow then in the mid-Atlantic. There is less depth for cold water, and the climate supports warm SST's almost year round. When a large cyclone moves through the area, the same type of upwelling occurs but it's fairly warm water compared to deeper ocean basins.

This also shows that SST's are just one piece of the puzzle when to comes to how strong a storm can get. The number of times "rocket fuel" was used to describe the water in the Gulf and western Caribbean has been more than the grains of sand on all the world's beaches, yet nothing has been seen of the rapid intensification that many were predicting from any storm that got in those waters.


+100
160mph - Gusts 195 MPH
Is Nadine position responsible or influencing the temporary death of the CV season?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

That has to be the longest moisture fetch ever. It appears that convection over Central America is feeding this fetch, which transits southern Florida, dropping copious amounts of moisture as it goes. It then moves up the Gulf Stream off the East Coast, takes a right south of Greenland, and then appears to get pulled into Nadine's circulation. It's probably an optical illusions, but it almost appears that Nadine is being kept alive with tropical moisture that starts way back in Central America. All of this energy and all we have are scattered thunderstorms and eventually, Nadine. So much for the "rocket fuel" theory. :)
Quoting sunlinepr:
Is Nadine position responsible or influencing the temporary death of the CV season?

I think the CV season was about dead anyway, but Nadine is certainly sucking up and spitting out almost all the available energy in that part of the Atlantic.
Quoting sar2401:

I think the CV season was about dead anyway, but Nadine is certainly sucking up and spitting out almost all the available energy in that part of the Atlantic.


Think the same about the CV season, but I see CMC and GFS forecast showing some waves again coming out from Africa, as Nadine moves N....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Sep 24, 2012
GOES-14 Replaces GOES-13 as the GOES East Satellite
After the GOES-13 satellite experienced issues with data from the imager and sounder instruments for the last several days, the GOES-14 satellite has been activated and has replaced GOES-13 as the NOAA operational GOES East satellite. Around a month ago, GOES-14 was taken out of storage and activated for routine maneuvers and several experiments in preparation for the next generation GOES-R satellite. GOES-14 will remain the primary GOES satellite over the Atlantic basin and Continental U.S. until the imager and sounder data issues on GOES-13 can be fully diagnosed and hopefully fixed. NOAA maintains backup GOES satellites in case unforeseen events occur, providing full redundancy for monitoring severe weather over the U.S. and its territories.



Translation into non-government speak:The real GOES-13 is dead as a doornail. Thankfully, we had that junker GOES-14 in the space storage garage and are using it instead of the real thing. Everything will be fine and dandy, except for coverage and picture quality. The next generation satellites will take over as soon as we can scrape up the rubles and get time on a Russian rocket so we can get them up there, assuming India's not the low bidder. Nothing to see here, just move along...
Quoting sunlinepr:


Think the same about the CV season, but I see CMC and GFS forecast showing some waves again coming out from Africa, as Nadine moves N....

Yeah, there will be waves, but they will promptly die after a day or two. Pretty hostile environment for late season CV storms.
Come back queen?

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 260 km/hr
Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 220 km/hr
Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 220 km/hr



notice the turn NE just before Taiwan. That is due to the cold front that is there as seen here...











Could we see a EWRC coming soon??
Typhoon Bolaven rains fish on Russian beach



IT was a case of seafood and eat it in Russia.

A delicious feast of oysters, molluscs, crabs and fresh fish rained down on Lazurnaya Bay in the country's far east.



The seafood BBQ enjoyed by locals was the result of Typhoon Bolaven. The storm caused chaos as it tracked over Russia, halting the Trans Siberia Railway, stopping ferry services and causing black outs.

Local girl Svetlana took these amazing images of the seafood beach for her blog.



"I live here for more than 20 years, but I've never seen anything like this. Now we know what 'manna from heaven' means,” Svetlana said.

The day of the seafood feast will be talked about for years in this part of Russia.

Looking for link between Indonesian Throughflow and Australian climate

CSIRO scientists are heading to the Ombai Strait and Timor Passage to collect data vital to understanding how an ocean current in the region affects Australia’s climate and weather.

Almost two years ago CSIRO oceanographers deployed moorings in one of Australia’s and globally important ocean currents, the Indonesian Throughflow, which connects the Pacific and Indian Oceans through the complex system of islands.

The moorings will be recovered, their data will be uploaded to the ship’s computers and then they will be returned to the water for a further 18 months.

Leading the research team on board Australia’s Marine National Facility research vessel Southern Surveyor, is oceanographer Dr Bernadette Sloyan who is a specialist in ocean circulation with CSIRO’s Wealth from Oceans Flagship.

“The heat and fresh water carried by the Indonesian Throughflow are known to affect both the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and so understanding the physical and chemical make-up is important for the future management of natural resource,” Dr Sloyan said.

“The current consists of several different layers that occur at different depths, which weave their way through the complex island network; where there are a variety of seabed landscapes affecting the currents, from broad shallow shelves to deep basins.

“We know very little about how this ocean current changes across the seasons and this will be the first time we look at data from these moorings, which have been in place for two years.”

The moorings consist of sensors recording temperature, salinity, and ocean current, spanning the region from the continental margin to off-shore in water depths of over three kilometres.

These moorings are part of the Australian Government funded Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS). Given the importance of the Indonesian Throughflow to Australia’s climate, IMOS intends to undertake long-term monitoring of the two main passages.

Dr Sloyan said IMOS has provided over $1 million in funding to support this work, which will complement existing IMOS observations being collected from the Northwest shelf, Great Barrier Reef, and the East Australian Current.

The research team will also conduct oceanographic sampling and mapping work to create a three-dimensional image of the sea floor in sections of the Timor Passage and the Ombai Strait in the area of the moorings.

The work is being undertaken with the cooperation of Timor-Leste, who will have two observers on the research voyage.

Australia’s Marine National Facility research vessel, Southern Surveyor, is owned and operated by CSIRO, and is available to all Australian scientists.
Hi-Res image of Super Typhoon Jelawat


Click to view full size image, click that image to see inside the eye.
update from the UK. The 'daughter of Nadine', Karin, has now dumped heavy rains on my area since Sunday night, about 7 pm local time. That means it's been raining for 40 hours straight and no end in sight. BBC reports that over 50 flood warnings have been issued. And here is an article on traffic disruptions caused by the flooding. Several roads and train lines have been shut down because of it.

The most important bits:
Arriva Trains Wales said there was severe disruption in the mid Wales, Wrexham and Shropshire areas and journeys should only be made if essential.

Its Chester to Crewe, Shrewsbury to Cardiff, Shrewsbury to Holyhead, Shrewsbury to Manchester, Swansea to Cardiff and routes west of Swansea were all affected.

In other words, all of Wales is affected, the list includes all train lines that we have. No train today...

And the forecast is that Karin remains nearly stationary over the UK for the next 36-48 hours. Ouch, this could turn really bad! Surface pressure forecast of the UK Metoffice.
what if the sun did not come up? be depressing for sure
Quoting sar2401:

This already happened. From about 1940 until 2000, California experienced the largest non-mandated migration growth in human history, growing from 6.9 million in 1940 to 33.8 million in 2000, an increase of 490% over 60 years. This growth was mostly due to economic opportunities and a salubrious climate. Almost 27 million people came from somewhere else to settle in California. Much the same thing will happen anywhere in the face of any substantial changes, including climate changes. Humans are very adaptable animals.
There is, of course, a world of difference between voluntarily moving to a place in search of better opportunities and being mandatorily forced to move from a place because where you are now is no longer a viable place to live. The former can be positive; the latter, however, is extremely disruptive, and brings with it a whole slew of negative things.

Its unclear at this point how the hundreds of millions who will be refugees of a rapidly changing climate will be accommodated, and by whom. But whatever it is, it's going to require much more than expanding the suburbs...

And while it is true that all species are capable of varying degrees of adaptability, it might pay to remember that mass die-offs are just an extreme form of adaptation.
417. VR46L
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Eye have a spelling chequer,
It came with my Pea Sea.
It plane lee marks four my revue
Miss Steaks I can knot sea.

Eye strike the quays and type a whirred
And weight four it two say
Weather eye am write oar wrong
It tells me straight a weigh.

Eye ran this poem threw it,
Your shore real glad two no.
Its vary polished in its weigh.
My chequer tolled me sew.

A chequer is a bless thing,
It freeze yew lodes of thyme.
It helps me right all stiles of righting,
And aides me when eye rime.

Each frays come posed up on my screen
Eye trussed too bee a joule.
The chequer pours o'er every word
Two cheque sum spelling rule.



Personally I would rather see a good Meme or a Good one liner ,than lines of poetry mocking people who have difficulty spelling, but that's just me



Quoting clamshell:


And this.

"Can you raed this? Olny 55 plepoe out of 100 can. I cdnuolt blveiee that I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd what I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dseno't mtaetr in what oerdr the ltteres in a word are, the olny iproamtnt tihng is that the frsit and last ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can still raed it whotuit a pboerlm. This is bcuseaethe huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the word as a wlohe. Azanmig huh? Yaeh and I awlyas tghuhot slpeling was ipmorantt! If you can raed this forwrad it."


Now...Does spelling really matter? Hmmm. :-)




That brought a smile to my face as someone who has mild dyslexia ... Saw something like that many years ago made me smile then and still does :)
418. VR46L
But this does not make me smile the spawn of Nadine aka Karin UK and Ireland still under flood and wind warnings including over 70 mile an hour winds





And link to BBC News report a safe link

Link
72 degrees at 4:30 when I got up this morning. Something tells me it's going to be another hot day.

Ireland, England, Wales and others in the path of Karin, stay safe and beware of the flooding. You're all in my thoughts and prayers.

Everyone have a great Tuesday!
Thanks for posting the new link, VR46L. The updated news report includes now 73 flood warnings in England, 1 in Wales, and 8 in Scotland with 151 flood watches added to that. I'll sure keep an eye on that as the numbers of warnings, road closures and evacuations will likely go up throughout the day.

The warning service run by the metoffice does not provide the latest information as they are "experiencing a problem getting regional warnings information" Great timing for that! I think they can't keep up with the new warnings popping up all over the place.
421. VR46L
Quoting taistelutipu:
Thanks for posting the new link, VR46L. The updated news report includes now 73 flood warnings in England, 1 in Wales, and 8 in Scotland with 151 flood watches added to that. I'll sure keep an eye on that as the numbers of warnings, road closures and evacuations will likely go up throughout the day.

The warning service run by the metoffice does not provide the latest information as they are "experiencing a problem getting regional warnings information" Great timing for that! I think they can't keep up with the new warnings popping up all over the place.


Your Welcome . Its been a tough summer for the British Isles . With It being so cold and wet ... Roll on spring its going to be a long winter ... Yes Its a bad time for the UK Met office system to play up.
Quoting Neapolitan:
There is, of course, a world of difference between voluntarily moving to a place in search of better opportunities and being mandatorily forced to move from a place because where you are now is no longer a viable place to live. The former can be positive; the latter, however, is extremely disruptive, and brings with it a whole slew of negative things.

Its unclear at this point how the hundreds of millions who will be refugees of a rapidly changing climate will be accommodated, and by whom. But whatever it is, it's going to require much more than expanding the suburbs...

And while it is true that all species are capable of varying degrees of adaptability, it might pay to remember that mass die-offs are just an extreme form of adaptation.


It's not often one can add something meaningful to one of Nea's posts but I'll give this a try.

A major difference in the CA migration and one mandated by climate change is that most of the people who migrated to CA did not lose their entire property value in the place they left though some surely did. Most of those who moved to CA sold their homes and properties back East and brought the funds to CA with them. Folks who are forced to leave their oceanfront estates because of rising sea level will get nothing for those estates (unless the government gives them some of our tax money) and will have very little to invest in the area they are re-located to. If you want to see what the climate refugees will look like and how they will live, see an old clip of the Okies of the '30's when they arrived in CA.

Anyone who doesn't want to see a draconian future government should be lobbying very hard for solutions to climate change today, before the ocean makes her appearance on the scene.
Good morning guys.

With the 09z advisory package from the National Hurricane Center, Nadine's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is now up to 14.0525 units. It will surpass Leslie's 14.75 units at 5am EDT tomorrow unless it strengthens some today or dissipates for no reason.
It may be warm in the Arctic with a record low sea ice extent for the day but it is 40 (Brrrrrrr..) on the back porch here in VA this morning. The climate is warming, no argument, but I'm bringing the wood today.

This is a record too, the earliest in 29 years, I've ever re-stocked the porch firewood pile for the up-coming winter.
From Joe Bastardi on FB
Brazilian model, nov-Jan major trough US ridge over nw N America.. US cold
Link
Nadine has a nice mid-level eye-like feature.

Good morning everyone, hopefully everyone is having a good morning. Jelawat continues to have a great eye and eyewall. Miriam looks to be trying to come back but conditions will begin to deteriorate over the next couple days.
area just north of the ABC islands looks interesting
Good Morning. Our usual late-Sept going into October hunting grounds are closed for business due to very high sheer levels in the Western Caribbean, Gulf, and off the Eastern Seaboard.

Link

Have a great day..................
Nadine is boring.I'm ready for the hurricane season to be over now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning guys.

With the 09z advisory package from the National Hurricane Center, Nadine's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is now up to 14.0525 units. It will surpass Leslie's 14.75 units at 5am EDT tomorrow unless it strengthens some today or dissipates for no reason.

Right now I don't see anything that would indicate dissipation or strengthening.


Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Our usual late-Sept going into October hunting grounds are closed for business due to very high sheer levels in the Western Caribbean, Gulf, and off the Eastern Seaboard.

Link

Have a great day..................

At least for now they are, still can't rule out development somewhere.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
And making a guest appearance... WEATHERH98

Morning guys and gals

Sorry I haven't been on lately been a bit busy with school

...hundreds of millions who will be refugees of a rapidly changing climate...

Link to source of this peer-reviewed data, please.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Our usual late-Sept going into October hunting grounds are closed for business due to very high sheer levels in the Western Caribbean, Gulf, and off the Eastern Seaboard.

Link

Have a great day..................
The fronts have been stronger and more frequent now.Maybe 1 or 2 storms during October.
436. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine has a nice mid-level eye-like feature.



Or a nice warm-air seclusion if you wanted to be contrary!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nadine is boring.I'm ready for the hurricane season to be over now.


Prety much is and has