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Midwest Cleans up 2013's Biggest Severe Weather Outbreak; Floods Kill 17 in Sardinia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:59 PM GMT on November 19, 2013

Damage surveys continue in the Midwest U.S. after a stunning and violent late-season severe weather outbreak swept through on Sunday, killing at least eight people and leaving widespread significant damage. Two violent EF-4 tornadoes and one strong EF-3 tornado hit Illinois, killing six, making Sunday Illinois' deadliest November day for tornadoes in its history. The most widespread damage from Sunday's outbreak occurred in the town of Washington (population 16,000), about 140 miles southwest of Chicago, where a violent EF-4 tornado destroyed or heavily damaged 250 - 500 homes and an apartment complex. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 85 preliminary tornado reports from Sunday, along with 455 reports of high wind gusts and 32 reports of hail. Seventeen of the wind gusts were in excess of 74 mph (hurricane strength.) The grand total of 572 severe weather reports (filtered to remove duplicates) for the day were the most of any day of 2013, surpassing the 538 total reports from June 13. The 85 preliminary tornado reports is also the highest for any day of 2013, surpassing the 62 reports from January 29.


Figure 1. An aerial view of Washington, Illinois on Sunday, Nov. 17, 2013, after a tornado tore through the area. (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)


Video 1. View from a tugboat on the Ohio River of the EF-3 tornado that hit Brookport, Illinois, killing three people. It is difficult to see as it was shot through the windshield of the tugboat, but you can see evidence of the circulation in the distance. The most impressive part of the video is watching the rain finally reach the boat at around 3:00, as a rain-wrapped circulation crosses the river in front, heading towards the town of Brookport. Looking at the orientation of the town along the river, these guys were looking directly into the circulation, and the rain curtains overtaking their boat is likely the Rear Flank Downdraft (RFD) moving over them.  Thanks go to TWC's Sarah Dillingham for the link and the commentary.

Sunday's November tornado outbreak: how rare?
Sunday's outbreak will probably rank as the second to fourth most prolific November tornado outbreak since 1950. But what was really remarkable about the outbreak was how far north it extended. With three confirmed tornadoes on Sunday, Michigan has increased its total number November tornadoes observed since 1950 by 50%, from six to nine. Prior to Sunday, Indiana had recorded 57 November tornadoes. That total increased by 26 on Sunday, which was the 3rd busiest day for tornadoes in Indiana history (the record: 37 tornadoes on June 2, 1990.) Seven confirmed tornadoes occurred in the 23-county region of Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana serviced by the Chicago NWS. Prior to Sunday’s tornado outbreak, there had been just twelve November tornadoes in this region since accurate tornado records began in 1950. The 101 tornado warnings issued in Illinois on Sunday represented 52% of all November tornado warnings issued in the state since 1986. The two EF-4 tornadoes that struck Illinois were the 2nd and 4th most northerly EF-4s ever recorded in the U.S. during the month of November, according to data from the Tornado History Project. Prior to Sunday, only twenty EF-4s had occurred in the U.S. in November dating back to 1950. Also notable is the fact that the intensity and areal extent of this severe weather outbreak resulted in widespread damage over a huge area, making it possible that this will be the first November severe weather outbreak in history to exceed $1 billion in damages. November severe weather outbreaks are rare enough and our database poor enough that we cannot make any definitive statements on how climate change may be affecting them, but one would expect to see cold-season severe weather events become increasingly common farther to the north in a warming climate.

Here is a list of the largest November tornado outbreaks since 1950:

95 tornadoes: November 21–23, 1992, Texas to Mississippi and into the Ohio Valley. The most intense and largest November outbreak on record in U.S. history. Produced violent tornadoes from Texas to Mississippi and into the Ohio Valley, including six F4s and two extremely long-track tornadoes, 160 miles and 128 miles.
75 tornadoes: November 9–11, 2002, Southeast U.S. and Ohio Valley. Very large and deadly outbreak produced multiple killer tornadoes across the Ohio Valley and Southeastern United States. A violent F4 hit Van Wert, Ohio, killing four people. Deadly F3 also hit Mossy Grove, Tennessee, killing seven.
67 tornadoes: November 23–24, 2001, Southeast U.S. Thirteen people killed.
50 tornadoes: November 15, 2005, Central and Southeast U.S. One person killed.
50 tornadoes: November 15 - 16, 1987, Oklahoma, Texas, and Mississippi.

Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has more detail on November tornado history in his latest post.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Extratropical Storm Cleopatra/Ruven off the coast of Sardinia, taken at approximately 15:30 UTC (10:30 am EST) November 19, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme flooding kills 17 in Sardinia, Italy
Slow-moving and powerful Extratropical Storm Cleopatra (called Ruven by the Free University of Berlin) dumped prodigious rains over the Mediterranean island of Sardinia on Monday, triggering floods that have killed at least seventeen people. According to media reports, the storm dumped as much as 450 mm (17.72") of rain in just 24 hours on the Italian island. The storm brought sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 56 mph, to Cagliari, Sardinia, on Monday.


Figure 3. MODIS image of Subtropical Storm Melissa, taken at approximately 13:30 UTC (8:30 am EST) November 19, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Subtropical Storm Melissa no threat to land
Subtropical Storm Melissa, the 13th Atlantic named storm of 2013, is slowly transitioning to a tropical storm as it heads north over the Central North Atlantic, far from land. Ocean temperatures are near 25°C, which is barely warm enough to support a tropical storm, but wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which may allow Melissa to become fully tropical by Wednesday morning. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high range on Wednesday as ocean temperatures plummet to 20°C (68°F) and dry air sharply increases. These conditions should cause Melissa to rapidly deteriorate on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that Melissa has a large circulation, but only limited heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. Melissa will not be a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Severe Weather Tornado Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks dr m
Melissa RGB Loop

when does it look like we will get cold air in fl cause im waiting for the cold air
Brought over from the previous blog entry:
Quoting 446. pcola57:


Thanks for that Nea..
sorry about the late response..
Dog needed to go out..
What I'm trying to visualize is how many times over will that in a gaseous state would cover the surface of the Earth..
A common man's comparison..
Would that be as tall as a skyscraper from sea level? ect..
Well, the numbers I gave were for an atmosphere of 100% gaseous CO2 at standard pressure. A year's worth of our CO2 emissions would yield more than 20,000 cubic kilometers of pure CO2 at that pressure. That's a cube roughly 27 kilometers on a side. But, of course, CO2 in our atmosphere isn't anywhere close to 100% it's a well-mixed gas that just this past year briefly reached 400 parts per million for the first time in hundreds of thousands of years. That doesn't sound like much, but it's far more than enough to cause the heating we've been seeing.

Yes, the earth's atmosphere is a big place, and encompasses a vast volume. But at the current rate of around 4.1 million metric tons of CO2 per hour, we're doing our best to fill it up as quickly as we can... :-\
Thank you Dr Masters, I wish the Tug Boat video continued through the event.. you can feel the stress level rise as the rain and wind hit the boat..

Happy Tuesday All!
Thank you very much for the update, Dr. Masters.

Latest deathtoll numbers due to "Cleopatra" on Sardinia: "At least 18 people, including four children, have been killed in flooding on the Italian island of Sardinia after a cyclone and heavy rain." (BBC)

ECMWF forecast for wave heights in meters (from yesterday for now) in the Mediterranean:


(Saved image). Source for more and updates: Weather Service of Croatia (I'm detecting a lot of new weather sites because of "Cleopatra", lol).
Quoting 4. Neapolitan:
Brought over from the previous blog entry:Well, the numbers I gave were for an atmosphere of 100% gaseous CO2 at standard pressure. A year's worth of our CO2 emissions would yield more than 20,000 cubic kilometers of pure CO2 at that pressure. That's a cube roughly 27 kilometers on a side. But, of course, CO2 in our atmosphere isn't anywhere close to 100% it's a well-mixed gas that just this past year briefly reached 400 parts per million for the first time in hundreds of thousands of years. That doesn't sound like much, but it's far more than enough to cause the heating we've been seeing.

Yes, the earth's atmosphere is a big place, and encompasses a vast volume. But at the current rate of around 4.1 million metric tons of CO2 per hour, we're doing our best to fill it up as quickly as we can... :-\


Thanks Nea for that post..
Thank you for weighing in..
I believe AGW..
No doubt in my mind personally..
I was and am apprecative of your knowledge and taking time with the issue..
That said..
I do still think a comparison is a standard need for most folks..
Not everyone is able to comprehend this issue to a point of action..
I was hoping for a volumetric comparison of a gaseous substance so the average Joe would get it..
I do think the scientific community does a great job as a whole..
Has their creadibility been tarnished?
Yes..
It's a matter of trust which is hard to come by..
All many folks hear is an argument..
They see noise..
Thats all..
We need the scientists to put out the 36 billion tonne figure in a context for average folks..
Charts are good..
That's great..
I get it..
So many don't..
This issue of communication breakdown has got to be overcome..
JMO..FWIW..
Thank you.
Thanks Dr. Masters for the updated blog entry..
I will take time to look it over..
Thanks again..
MIMIC is broken

Interesting...Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming.

As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable.

Nature 439, 161-167 (12 January 2006) | doi:10.1038/nature04246; Received 2 June 2005; Accepted 21 September 2005

Link
It is rather interesting to note that Cleopatra has developed a shallow warm core near the center. Here is the warm core represented as a thickness max as analyzed by the 06Z GFS.

Quoting 10. FunnelVortex:
MIMIC is broken


Looks like there might be an error in algorithm for microwave pass misses.
04B looking like a TD or weak TS to me.

Quoting 4. Neapolitan:
Brought over from the previous blog entry:Well, the numbers I gave were for an atmosphere of 100% gaseous CO2 at standard pressure. A year's worth of our CO2 emissions would yield more than 20,000 cubic kilometers of pure CO2 at that pressure. That's a cube roughly 27 kilometers on a side. But, of course, CO2 in our atmosphere isn't anywhere close to 100% it's a well-mixed gas that just this past year briefly reached 400 parts per million for the first time in hundreds of thousands of years. That doesn't sound like much, but it's far more than enough to cause the heating we've been seeing.

Yes, the earth's atmosphere is a big place, and encompasses a vast volume. But at the current rate of around 4.1 million metric tons of CO2 per hour, we're doing our best to fill it up as quickly as we can... :-\



0.039% ?????????
Possibility of snow for my area Friday?

Quoting 4. Neapolitan:
Brought over from the previous blog entry:Well, the numbers I gave were for an atmosphere of 100% gaseous CO2 at standard pressure. A year's worth of our CO2 emissions would yield more than 20,000 cubic kilometers of pure CO2 at that pressure. That's a cube roughly 27 kilometers on a side. But, of course, CO2 in our atmosphere isn't anywhere close to 100% it's a well-mixed gas that just this past year briefly reached 400 parts per million for the first time in hundreds of thousands of years. That doesn't sound like much, but it's far more than enough to cause the heating we've been seeing.

Yes, the earth's atmosphere is a big place, and encompasses a vast volume. But at the current rate of around 4.1 million metric tons of CO2 per hour, we're doing our best to fill it up as quickly as we can... :-\


I did some back of the napkin stuff a few months back on our layer of CO2. What I came up with was a blanket of CO2 roughly 1 foot thick wrapping the globe. This is at a concentration of 400 ppm.

If anyone has anything better, I'd like to see it please.
GFS spins up another Mediterranean low

Sad...In a Neutral year too! Not El-Nino, neutral. Can't wait for the explanation as to why this season busted. Should be a good analysis.

06Z GFS initialization sounding from just SW of the low center features skinny CAPE up to the Dynamic Tropopause ~300 mb.

Quoting 17. cynyc2:


I did some back of the napkin stuff a few months back on our layer of CO2. What I came up with was a blanket of CO2 roughly 1 foot thick wrapping the globe. This is at a concentration of 400 ppm.

If anyone has anything better, I'd like to see it please.


Wow cynyc2..
Thats an amazing figure and perspective..
1 ft. thick around the globe..
Amazing..
I can sink my teeth into that..
Visualize..
I'd like to see if anyone else has a simular comparison as well..
Thank you.. :)
Quoting 19. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sad...



2013 Atlantic season in a nutshell
8 of the 13 on this list occurred in recent history. Joan made the list twice!

Quoting 23. GTstormChaserCaleb:
8 of the 13 on this list occurred in recent history.



Does this mean anything?
Let's assume GW is real. What is the best way to
get out of it, Socialism or Free Market?
Quoting 24. FunnelVortex:


Does this mean anything?
It could mean that the warming climate is increasing the frequency of stronger Tropical Cyclones. I'll BRB going to take a look at the list of Category 5 Hurricanes/Typhoons/Cyclones since record keeping began and see if there really is an increase over the past half of century.
Quoting 21. pcola57:


Wow cynyc2..
Thats an amazing figure and perspective..
1 ft. thick around the globe..
Amazing..
I can sink my teeth into that..
Visualize..
I'd like to see if anyone else has a simular comparison as well..
Thank you.. :)


Keep in mind that this is a very rough estimate, but if I am off by a factor of 2, that would still be six inched of CO2. Also as the concentration of CO2 increases, the thicker that blanket gets.

I too would like to see what others have come up with, as I am using some very old math and science skills...
Oh cool found this, "Furthermore, paleotempestological research aims to identify past major hurricanes by comparing sedimentary evidence of recent and past hurricane strikes. For example, a “giant hurricane” significantly more powerful than Hurricane Hattie (Category 5) has been identified in Belizean sediment, having struck the region sometime before 1500."
Quoting 25. tramp96:
Let's assume GW is real. What is the best way to
get out of it, Socialism or Free Market?

Free market is meaningless, really, like 'jungle law' is a phrase for a conceptual void, but I will go for that.
Solution depends on innovation is why.
In Europe btw we don't equate socialism with 'communism' or 'fascism' and free market can perfectly well imbibe some 'socialist' regulations.
Next year will be a 100 years since this season. Question do you guys want another season like this? :D

I've seen a lot about the tornadoes but almost nothing about the straight line winds. From the reports of relatives who live in Ohio and Pennsylvania, there was massive tree damage as well as structural damage from winds gusting to 70 mph. Although some of the tornadoes caused massive damage, the straight line winds covered a much larger area and affected many more people. I don't know how damage figures are calculated, but I'd be interested to find out how much of this estimated $1 billion in damage includes straight line winds.
Check this out you want to see a perfect analog to Hurricane Erin of 1995.

Erin:



1903 Hurricane 3:

Some pics and videos from Catanzaro, Southern Italy, Ionian Sea, showing torrential rains and severe flooding from Cleopatra. Lot of damage especially in Southern Italy, some evacuations, fortunately no deaths so far.


Source





I hope Italy gets some rest now from bad Cleopatra, as the COC will move ashore the mainland later. Meanwhile the British Islands are visited from the North.


Cloud top temperatures.

Have to go. Good evening everybody.
Quoting 30. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Next year will be a 100 years since this season. Question do you guys want another season like this? :D

Probably more interesting that 2013 lol
Quoting 25. tramp96:
Let's assume GW is real. What is the best way to
get out of it, Socialism or Free Market?


Who knows your needs and wants better..
You or your neighbor?
Quoting 30. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Next year will be a 100 years since this season. Question do you guys want another season like this? :D



That was before the satellite era or other modern methods of tracking these storms.
Thanks Jeff...
Thanks for the Updates,
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
8 of the 13 on this list occurred in recent history. Joan made the list twice!


My ex-sister-in-law is named Joan, so I can see why she'd make the list twice. :-)

One thing to consider is that hurricanes and typhoons from the satellite and hurricane hunter eras are much more likely to show up on these lists because we have the ability to estimate winds from satellite data, as well as direct observation from aircraft. Almost everything before 1950 was a guess because we were dependent on barometers of doubtful accuracy and anemometers that often blew away when the wind reached about 120 mph or so, and some places had no weather instruments at all. Unless you you can remove all these confounding factors, there is no way to say that that list shows the most powerful tropical cyclones of all time. The list should be properly labeled as the most powerful since 1950, so the fact that many occurred in the last 30 years or so is not surprising.
Out of curiosity, does anyone know which agency named the Mediterranean cyclone "Cleopatra?"
Quoting 40. 1900hurricane:
Out of curiosity, does anyone know which agency named the Mediterranean cyclone "Cleopatra?"


Why is everyone talking about it anyways?
Thank You Dr.  Pretty interesting to see Melissa actually transition to a warm cored system this far North latitude-wise this late in the season but I suppose water temps up to the Bermuda latitudes were pretty warm the last few months with no storms to take advantage of those ssts.  However, she sure is ingesting lot's of dry air that will quickly put a damper on things if the cooler ssts don't.
Quoting 30. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Next year will be a 100 years since this season. Question do you guys want another season like this? :D



I wonder how many tropical systems were missed without satellites to spot them?
Quoting 28. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh cool found this, "Furthermore, paleotempestological research aims to identify past major hurricanes by comparing sedimentary evidence of recent and past hurricane strikes. For example, a “giant hurricane” significantly more powerful than Hurricane Hattie (Category 5) has been identified in Belizean sediment, having struck the region sometime before 1500."


I am highly sceptical. How does one assume a hurricane based on sediment? A rainfall assumption? A flood? I don't see how strong winds can leave a fingerprint on the sediment. What is it that hurricanes do that no other natural phenomenon does that could also have a unique effect on sediment. Not buying it.
Quoting 41. FunnelVortex:


Why is everyone talking about it anyways?

It is a rather significant (and quite interesting) weather event in Europe right now.
Quoting 30. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Next year will be a 100 years since this season. Question do you guys want another season like this? :D




You have to remember, there may have been more than that one TS in that year...... Satellite was not developed yet, and cyclones were found by chance as those areas were passed through at random times.

I would not really consider anything before the late 50s accurate in terms of numbers of cyclones because of this reason.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Next year will be a 100 years since this season. Question do you guys want another season like this? :D


First, it doesn't really matter what we want. Mother Nature will dish out what she pleases. Second, do you really believe in 1914 that a storm like Melissa...or Erin...or Humberto...or Jerry would have even been noticed? They all occurred outside the normal shipping lanes, and wireless sets were just being installed in most ships. Only about half the ships had the ability to use wireless, and the range was such that mid-Atlantic transmission was either impossible or very unreliable. There was a war on that started at the height of hurricane season, and the British and Germans were not sharing or publishing any weather data they felt would help the other side. You have to understand both history and technology before putting any faith in the number of hurricanes in a year like 1914. There could have easily been 8-10 tropical cyclones that occurred at sea that were either missed or not reported.
Melissa looks close to becoming tropical now. Convection is starting to wrap around the COC, which is necessary for a system to become tropical.

Quoting 44. NCstu:


I am highly sceptical. How does one assume a hurricane based on sediment? A rainfall assumption? A flood? I don't see how strong winds can leave a fingerprint on the sediment. What is it that hurricanes do that no other natural phenomenon does that could also have a unique effect on sediment. Not buying it.


There are many papers and recent research on sediment layers from Hurricanes..esp along the GOM coast.

Case in Point, the 17th St. Canal Levee Failure during Katrina was shown to have "slipped" on a Cypress Peat layer right where the short Pilings rested, as a Large Hurricane laid down that peat layer 400 years ago.

And it lines up with the Verbal record from the Native American tribes that till this day have that memory.

So your assumption needs revision.

See Ivor Van Heerdens words on that.

Its a easy google.

Why is everyone talking about it anyways?


Well, some of us read the Drs. entry above.



Extreme flooding kills 17 in Sardinia, Italy
Slow-moving and powerful Extratropical Storm Cleopatra dumped prodigious rains over the Mediterranean island of Sardinia on Monday, triggering floods that have killed at least seventeen people. According to media reports, the storm dumped as much as 450 mm (17.72") of rain in just two hours on the Italian island. The storm brought sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 56 mph, to Cagliari, Sardinia, on Monday.
I have to go to class now, I'll pick up where I left off am trying to count the number of Super Typhoons of Category 5 strengths. I have already completed the EPAC and Atlantic. But I'm telling you guys something if I am to graph that data it would likely show an increase and what is the main energy source that fuels tropical cyclones?
This does not have very much to do with Melissa itself, but on a side note, Minimal hurricane force winds are showing up on here in a small isolated swath.

Like I said, this has very little to do with the strength of Melissa, as it is not inside of the system itself.

Quoting NCstu:


I am highly sceptical. How does one assume a hurricane based on sediment? A rainfall assumption? A flood? I don't see how strong winds can leave a fingerprint on the sediment. What is it that hurricanes do that no other natural phenomenon does that could also have a unique effect on sediment. Not buying it.

I might buy it, depending on how the data was collected and interpreted. Belize is a country that really has no large storms unless they are tropical storms. A layer of sediment laid down over a period of a few days might indicate a level of storm surge that would correlate with a large hurricane. My question is if we have the precision to say that a layer of sediment was laid down over a period of a few days. I don't think we do, so some guesses had to made if we can only say "sometime in the 1500's". If that's the case, I don't buy it either.
Quoting 25. tramp96:
Let's assume GW is real. What is the best way to
get out of it, Socialism or Free Market?


That's a sad question since neither of those things exist outside of textbooks. Everyone is a capitalist (even the socialists). The market isn't free, it favors existing power and wealth.

We ain't going to do much at all about AGW.

Everything that makes modern life modern is carbon energy intensive.

Mankind defaults to short term.

The solution would be a shift away from growth/consumerism that will not happen until it has to happen.

Quoting 51. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I have to go to class now, I'll pick up where I left off am trying to count the number of Super Typhoons of Category 5 strengths. I have already completed the EPAC and Atlantic. But I'm telling you guys something if I am to graph that data it would likely show an increase and what is the main energy source that fuels tropical cyclones?


Heat, Low shear, Water, instable atmosphere... :)
Quoting 52. Torito:
This does not have very much to do with Melissa itself, but on a side note, Minimal hurricane force winds are showing up on here in a small isolated swath.

Like I said, this has very little to do with the strength of Melissa, as it is not inside of the system itself.


Nah, those are 50 kt wind barbs, which are still below hurricane force.
"...one would expect to see cold-season severe weather events become increasingly common farther to the north in a warming climate"

This is a bold statement without an explanation.

On one hand, increasing jetstream amplification could possibly support this conclusion by increasing the frequency of incursions of warm, moist air northward during winter months. However, the increasingly frequent pattern of arctic blocking leading to this amplification could shift the mean jetstream position southward over the U.S. during the winter, leading to a more El Nino-like configuration, even absent an actual El Nino. Cook and Schaefer (2008) found that winter tornado tornado activity extends to the northeast towards Michigan during La Nina years (bottom image) compared to El Nino years (top image), a function of the difference in jet position and north-south temperature gradient between El Nino and La Nina.

These parameters are also modulated by arctic blocking, so it could be that a warming climate could shift winter tornado activity southward. This would require investigation by a formal study, but the statement that a warming climate would be expected to shift tornado activity to the north is not a given, and should not be put forth without support.


Fig. 1: Tornadoes occurring on "tornado days" during the winter El Nino phase.


Fig. 2: Tornadoes occurring on "tornado days" during the winter La Nina phase.
Quoting 56. 1900hurricane:

Nah, those are 50 kt wind barbs, which are still below hurricane force.



If so, Those winds are slightly higher than 60mph... signaling that Melissa has, in fact, weakened.
Quoting 53. sar2401:

I might buy it, depending on how the data was collected and interpreted. Belize is a country that really has no large storms unless they are tropical storms. A layer of sediment laid down over a period of a few days might indicate a level of storm surge that would correlate with a large hurricane. My question is if we have the precision to say that a layer of sediment was laid down over a period of a few days. I don't think we do, so some guesses had to made if we can only say "sometime in the 1500's". If that's the case, I don't buy it either.


I did a little research a.k.a visited wikipedia and it might be somewhat legit after all. The idea is that you look for stuff in the sediment that would normally be found in the ocean. Then you can conclude that ocean water visited places that it shouldn't have been able to visit. The two possibilities are tsunami and storm surge and apparently it isn't too difficult to tell the difference. Depending on how much sea stuff is in the sediment it isn't too much of a stretch to estimate intensity.
When you don't look at anything and put forth no effort to know, its easy to make assumptions.

And we know how dat goes eh?
Quoting 58. Torito:



If so, Those winds are slightly higher than 60mph... signaling that Melissa has, in fact, weakened.

I wouldn't put a lot of faith in those wind plots, as they have a history of being rather inaccurate. Just look at the pressure assigned to this Haiyan analysis.

Quoting 40. 1900hurricane:
Out of curiosity, does anyone know which agency named the Mediterranean cyclone "Cleopatra?"


I don't know ....



Cuz Berlin has not named it that
A Lot of Western Canada saw recent record nadoes a few years back, when the US saw Record low Nado numbers in the US alley.

Dr. Masters may have done a entry on that,or maybe another featured Phd.

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I have to go to class now, I'll pick up where I left off am trying to count the number of Super Typhoons of Category 5 strengths. I have already completed the EPAC and Atlantic. But I'm telling you guys something if I am to graph that data it would likely show an increase and what is the main energy source that fuels tropical cyclones?

Caleb, it's better observational skills - nothing more. I would hope that, with all the money we've spent on satellites, aircraft, and radar, that we'd show an increase in cyclones generally. If you're trying to graph storms before about 1950 and include them as part of the graph with an endpoint of today, your data will be both wrong and misleading. As several of us have said, it's a certainty that some major hurricanes were missed before the modern era because there was no one around but fish to see them. Only using landfalling hurricanes would give a better comparison, but even doing that, the Safir-Simpson scale has only been around since 1971, and photography has only been common since about 1870. Before that, you only have written accounts of landfalling hurricanes, and those accounts are notoriously inaccurate. You data would be so contaminated by confounding factors that it would border on useless.
For Melissa.


2013NOV19 pressure:991.3 VMAX:33.0 D#:2.2 2.2 2.2 Weakening:ON RD:OFF Appearance:SHEAR


33kt is only 38mph?...
Quoting 52. Torito:
This does not have very much to do with Melissa itself, but on a side note, Minimal hurricane force winds are showing up on here in a small isolated swath.

Like I said, this has very little to do with the strength of Melissa, as it is not inside of the system itself.



I think the winds need to be more widespread and close to the center to be classified as a hurricane. That is probably from a squall line or something.
Quoting 61. 1900hurricane:

I wouldn't put a lot of faith in those wind plots, as they have a history of being rather inaccurate. Just look at the pressure assigned to this Haiyan analysis.



836.... ;)

Seems legit.

Quoting NCstu:


I did a little research a.k.a visited wikipedia and it might be somewhat legit after all. The idea is that you look for stuff in the sediment that would normally be found in the ocean. Then you can conclude that ocean water visited places that it shouldn't have been able to visit. The two possibilities are tsunami and storm surge and apparently it isn't too difficult to tell the difference. Depending on how much sea stuff is in the sediment it isn't too much of a stretch to estimate intensity.

My question still remains about precision. If we can only date these sediments to sometime within a century, we can probably say that some event within that century caused those unusual deposits. If that's the case, how can we tell if it was several events or one large event? I'm not an expert in this field, so someone who is an expert may already know the right answer, but I don't.
Quoting 40. 1900hurricane:
Out of curiosity, does anyone know which agency named the Mediterranean cyclone "Cleopatra?"


You gave me a hard time with this question, lol. Difficult to find out. My guess: It's the private and powerful Italian weather service Il Meteo. One of its clients is the widely watched TV station RAI.


Map from Il Meteo with "Cleopatra".

The official weather service of Italy apparently doesn't use the name "Cleopatra".

Italian News from Nov 14 (the circulation of "Cleopatra" was hanging around already for some days back then):

Meteo, arriva il ciclone Cleopatra: portera pioggia: "Tempo instabile sull'Italia. Martedi prossimo, dice Antonio Sano, direttore del portale www.ilmeteo.it, e infatti atteso il ritorno di 'Cleopatra' che tocchera anche la Campania."

Quoting 69. barbamz:


You gave me a hard time with this question, lol. Difficult to find out. My guess: It's the private and powerful Italian weather service Il Meteo. One of it's clients is the widely watched TV station RAI.


Map from Il Meteo with "Cleopatra".

The official weather service of Italy apparently doesn't use the name "Cleopatra".


I cant read French,German,Italian, or whatever that is....
:(
1:00 Tropical discussion update


...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA IS CENTERED NEAR 31.9N 54.6W AT
19/1500 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 520 NM E OF BERMUDA MOVING N 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 36N53W TO 32N57W. PLEASE
SEE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

No surprise that Climate Change (AKA Global Warming) was brought into the discussion about the tornadoes. We can use the proverbial "no one event can be attributed to GW" but it is always brought in.
Quoting 71. Torito:
1:00 Tropical discussion update


...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA IS CENTERED NEAR 31.9N 54.6W AT
19/1500 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 520 NM E OF BERMUDA MOVING N 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 36N53W TO 32N57W. PLEASE
SEE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.



hurricane force gusts
Wow, great blog post Dr Masters...this is why I read it.
Quoting 69. barbamz:


You gave me a hard time with this question, lol. Difficult to find out. My guess: It's the private and powerful Italian weather service Il Meteo. One of it's clients is the widely watched TV station RAI.


Map from Il Meteo with "Cleopatra".

The official weather service of Italy apparently doesn't use the name "Cleopatra".

Yeah, that's the same dilemma I came across (I was asked that very question previously). I dug around a bit, but couldn't manage to trace the name's origin.
Quoting 70. Torito:


I cant read French,German,Italian, or whatever that is....
:(


You are young, Torito, aren't you, lol? I've started to pick up some (still very) poor Italian only when I was 19, mostly using textbooks and CD's ...
Quoting 76. barbamz:


You are young, Torito, aren't you, lol? I've started to pick up some (still very) poor Italian only when I was 19, mostly using textbooks and CD's ...


LOL I had enough time learning Spanish. ;)
Tornado Emergency and Flash Flood Emergency will become official NWS product in 2014.

Link
From the NWS in Indianapolis: 26 confirmed tornadoes in the state on Sunday, which was the 2nd busiest day for tornadoes in Indiana history (the record: 37 tornadoes on June 2, 1990.)

Prior to Sunday, Indiana had recorded 57 November tornadoes.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 78. Bluestorm5:
Tornado Emergency and Flash Flood Emergency will become official NWS product in 2014.

Link



Why did they have to use this example though? It's terrible! :'(

The headlines will be on their own line directly following the
date/time line in the WMO Header, and before the first line that
begins "THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN XXX HAS ISSUED A", where
"XXX" is the WFO location. The headline will be preceded and
followed by a three dot ellipsis. For example:

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MOORE AND SOUTH OKLAHOMA CITY...
or
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CENTRAL KENT COUNTY...

Quoting 79. JeffMasters:
From the NWS in Indianapolis: 26 confirmed tornadoes in the state on Sunday, which was the 2nd busiest day for tornadoes in Indiana history (the record: 37 tornadoes on June 2, 1990.)

Prior to Sunday, Indiana had recorded 57 November tornadoes.

Jeff Masters



Afternoon, Dr. Masters.
Quoting 57. Levi32:
"...one would expect to see cold-season severe weather events become increasingly common farther to the north in a warming climate"

This is a bold statement without an explanation.

On one hand, increasing jetstream amplification could possibly support this conclusion by increasing the frequency of incursions of warm, moist air northward during winter months. However, the increasingly frequent pattern of arctic blocking leading to this amplification could shift the mean jetstream position southward over the U.S. during the winter, leading to a more El Nino-like configuration, even absent an actual El Nino. Cook and Schaefer (2008) found that winter tornado tornado activity extends to the northeast towards Michigan during La Nina years (bottom image) compared to El Nino years (top image), a function of the difference in jet position and north-south temperature gradient between El Nino and La Nina.

These parameters are also modulated by arctic blocking, so it could be that a warming climate could shift winter tornado activity southward. This would require investigation by a formal study, but the statement that a warming climate would be expected to shift tornado activity to the north is not a given, and should not be put forth without support.


Fig. 1: Tornadoes occurring on "tornado days" during the winter El Nino phase.


Fig. 2: Tornadoes occurring on "tornado days" during the winter La Nina phase.


Some valid points. My statement assumes that instability is often the limiting factor in late-season severe weather outbreaks, and that there will be more high-instability days with a warmer climate. It would be interesting to look at cold-season lightning activity to see if it has shifted northwards in recent decades. Greg Carbin of NOAA mentioned he was interested in doing that, but no one has looked at this to my knowledge.

Jeff Masters
Hi Dr Masters. Do you think Subtropical Storms should be given ACE units? I see that some private entities count those and NOAA doesn't.
Quoting 53. sar2401:

I might buy it, depending on how the data was collected and interpreted. Belize is a country that really has no large storms unless they are tropical storms. A layer of sediment laid down over a period of a few days might indicate a level of storm surge that would correlate with a large hurricane. My question is if we have the precision to say that a layer of sediment was laid down over a period of a few days. I don't think we do, so some guesses had to made if we can only say "sometime in the 1500's". If that's the case, I don't buy it either.

Turbidites are easily recognizable in ocean sediments. I would expect an unsorted layer of sediment along the coast can be analyzed in the same way.
Quoting bappit:

Turbidites are easily recognizable in ocean sediments. I would expect an unsorted layer of sediment along the coast can be analyzed in the same way.

True, but you didn't answer my question about dates. How much precision do we have in assigning even a month date to sediments from more than 500 years ago? If we don't have that kind of precision, how do we know the sediment layer is from one event or several events occurring over a relatively short geological period, which I imagine, at best, has to be several months?
Quoting 84. bappit:

Turbidites are easily recognizable in ocean sediments. I would expect an unsorted layer of sediment along the coast can be analyzed in the same way.


Exactly. If you want to understand how we distinguish single depositional events from multiple events or how we determine the age of sedimentary layers, do a...

Google Search for "Sequence Stratigraphy" and start reading...

I studied a lot of this stuff in college (geology major), but I'm afraid I'm swamped with work right now and haven't got the time for a more extensive blog comment. But seriously, check out the sequence stratigraphy stuff. If you're a skeptic, read up on current techniques and try to identify any flaws. If you actually find a flaw, then find a geologist who can help you publish it!

Note - dates are generally determined using a combination of radiometric techniques (carbon dating, Cs-137, Pb-210, etc.) and inference from stratigraphic relationships with well-dated layers/events.
Low intelligence and bad parenting award goes to this guy! This tornado leveled homes and killed people, rated at EF4 190 mph, but he thinks its just "picking up leaves".




Seriously though, I do not normally jump and criticize people, but when someone is being a terrible parent like this, he/she deserves to be called out. This guys is so stupid, his kids have more intelligence and maturity then him, they are aware of the grave danger, yet somehow he isn't?

It really scares me that we have parents this incompetent out there...

Quoting 83. Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Dr Masters. Do you think Subtropical Storms should be given ACE units? I see that some private entities count those and NOAA doesn't.


Since subtropical storms are named by NHC, they deserve to have ACE units counted.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 85. sar2401:

True, but you didn't answer my question about dates. How much precision do we have in assigning even a month date to sediments from more than 500 years ago? If we don't have that kind of precision, how do we know the sediment layer is from one event or several events occurring over a relatively short geological period, which I imagine, at best, has to be several months?

You really need to say what the you are talking about specifically. Vague questions get vague answers.
hello dr jeff masters do u think fl will get any cold weather soon
Quoting Levi32:
"...one would expect to see cold-season severe weather events become increasingly common farther to the north in a warming climate"

This is a bold statement without an explanation.

On one hand, increasing jetstream amplification could possibly support this conclusion by increasing the frequency of incursions of warm, moist air northward during winter months. However, the increasingly frequent pattern of arctic blocking leading to this amplification could shift the mean jetstream position southward over the U.S. during the winter, leading to a more El Nino-like configuration, even absent an actual El Nino. Cook and Schaefer (2008) found that winter tornado tornado activity extends to the northeast towards Michigan during La Nina years (bottom image) compared to El Nino years (top image), a function of the difference in jet position and north-south temperature gradient between El Nino and La Nina.

These parameters are also modulated by arctic blocking, so it could be that a warming climate could shift winter tornado activity southward. This would require investigation by a formal study, but the statement that a warming climate would be expected to shift tornado activity to the north is not a given, and should not be put forth without support.


Fig. 1: Tornadoes occurring on "tornado days" during the winter El Nino phase.


Fig. 2: Tornadoes occurring on "tornado days" during the winter La Nina phase.

That was my thought exactly but, looking at your maps, I would expect an outbreak in Michigan or Indiana to be accompanied by a similar or even worse outbreak down here in the Southeast. Alabama had tranquil, warm weather, with high dewpoints but only a few showers, while all this was happening up north. I don't remember tornadoes occurring during our secondary severe weather peak in November up north while nothing happened down here. It was apparently that deep low that developed up north, plus a warm cap over us, that made the difference. Do you have a theory why such an event occurred?
Melissa is getting elongated in the last few frames of the floater.

Quoting JeffMasters:


Since subtropical storms are named by NHC, they deserve to have ACE units counted.

Jeff Masters

Also, if I'm not mistaken, the NHC has been counting named STS's as part of the ACE score since sometime in the early 2000's
18z Best Track for Melissa remains as Subtropical.

AL, 14, 2013111918, , BEST, 0, 324N, 544W, 55, 982, SS

Thanks Dr Masters for the answer to the ACE question.
Quoting 85. sar2401:

True, but you didn't answer my question about dates. How much precision do we have in assigning even a month date to sediments from more than 500 years ago? If we don't have that kind of precision, how do we know the sediment layer is from one event or several events occurring over a relatively short geological period, which I imagine, at best, has to be several months?


I don't have the time for a full write-up on sequence stratigraphy, but I can assure you that geologists have techniques for separating single-event deposits from deposits from multiple events. If you're curious how they do it I recommend starting with a regular google search or a google scholar search for "sediment dating" and/or "sequence stratigraphy". You might look for the phrase "fining upwards".

Folks have been studying sedimentary deposits for years and we've come up with some really clever ways to interpret what we're seeing (especially if you're willing to dish out a few thousand bucks on lab analysis...).
Quoting Rachelhenne

Reported. Spamming on your first post is a bad idea.
Quoting 94. sar2401:

Also, if I'm not mistaken, the NHC has been counting named STS's as part of the ACE score since sometime in the early 2000's




...

How many times should I post this..

*The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index is calculated by summing the squares of the estimated 6-hourly maximum sustained wind speed in knots (Vmax2) for all periods in which the tropical cyclone is a tropical storm or greater intensity (sustained winds of 34 kt or greater). Note that the official NOAA definition of the ACE Index does not include those periods when the system is characterized as sub-tropical. However, we are including this information to allow for comparison between individual cyclones across all basins, many of which contain records which inadequately distinguish between tropical and subtropical cyclones. For a complete description of the ACE Index see Bell and Chelliah (2006), Journal of Climate (19) 590-612.

Subtropical systems are only counted in ACE during the unofficial data.... Final data does not include subtropical systems.

source from NOAA.



Link
Ban says people feel 'planet's wrath' over warming

BY ALISTER DOYLE AND NINA CHESTNEY
WARSAW Tue Nov 19, 2013 11:37am EST



(L-R) Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP), U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk listen to Polish Environment Minister Marcin Korolec during the COP19 conference at the National Stadium in Warsaw November 19, 2013.
CREDIT: REUTERS/KACPER PEMPEL

(Reuters) - People around the world are feeling the "wrath of a warming planet", U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Tuesday, urging almost 200 governments to take tougher action to reach a deal in 2015 on fighting global warming.

Ban told environment ministers at climate talks in Warsaw they had a steep climb ahead to agree to cut rising greenhouse gas emissions that scientists say fuel more extreme weather.

The Warsaw talks are struggling to lay the foundations for a new global accord, meant to be agreed in 2015 and enter into force from 2020, that looks likely to be a patchwork of pledges by national governments rather than a strong treaty.

Many developed nations are more focused on spurring sluggish economic growth than fixing global warming, despite scientists' increased certainty that human emissions will cause more heatwaves, droughts, floods and rising sea levels.

Developing nations, led by China and India, insist that the rich must continue to lead while they focus on ending poverty.

"All around the world, people now face and fear the wrath of a warming planet," Ban said, referring to extreme weather events such as Typhoon Haiyan that killed more than 3,900 people in the Philippines this month.

Current pledges for curbing global warming were "simply inadequate", Ban said. "Here, too, we must set the bar higher."

He said governments needed to step up aid to help poor nations slow their rising emissions of greenhouse gases and to adapt to the impacts of warming.

GLIMMERS OF HOPE

No major nations have set tougher national goals for cutting greenhouse gases in Warsaw. Japan disappointed many last week by saying it was watering down goals for 2020 after closing its nuclear industry after the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

A report by 49 experts in 10 nations on Tuesday said that carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels will rise to a record 36 billion tonnes (1 tonne = 1.102 metric tons) this year.

"I am deeply concerned that the scale of our actions is still insufficient to limit global temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels," he said.

Governments agreed the 2C ceiling in 2010 as a maximum permitted to prevent dangerous change. Temperatures have already risen by about 0.8 C (1.4F) from before the Industrial Revolution of the 18th century.

Ban said there were some signs of hope, pointing to actions by governments, business, cities and farmers to cut emissions.

Ban has invited world leaders to attend a summit at U.N. headquarters in New York on September 23, 2014. "I ask all who come to bring bold new announcements and action," he said.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose country has been skeptical of tougher EU climate targets, urged better cooperation.

"The match is won by the team. In order to win, players have to collaborate," he said, in a tent set up on what is usually the pitch in Warsaw's main soccer stadium.

(With extra reporting by Stian Reklev, Susanna Twidale, Michael Szabo)
Quoting MrMixon:


I don't have the time for a full write-up on sequence stratigraphy, but I can assure you that geologists have techniques for separating single-event deposits from deposits from multiple events. If you're curious how they do it I recommend starting with a regular google search or a google scholar search for "sediment dating" and/or "sequence stratigraphy". You might look for the phrase "fining upwards".

Folks have been studying sedimentary deposits for years and we've come up with some really clever ways to interpret what we're seeing (especially if you're willing to dish out a few thousand bucks on lab analysis...).

Thanks for the tips. Geology was not my best class in college. :-) I'll check out what's available for timing events going back that far. It will be interesting to find out how precise their dating is using those clever tricks.

EDIT: Found this Sediment Accuracy study. The result show some pretty large error rates.
More 50kt winds. ;)

Quoting Torito:




...

How many times should I post this..

*The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index is calculated by summing the squares of the estimated 6-hourly maximum sustained wind speed in knots (Vmax2) for all periods in which the tropical cyclone is a tropical storm or greater intensity (sustained winds of 34 kt or greater). Note that the official NOAA definition of the ACE Index does not include those periods when the system is characterized as sub-tropical. However, we are including this information to allow for comparison between individual cyclones across all basins, many of which contain records which inadequately distinguish between tropical and subtropical cyclones. For a complete description of the ACE Index see Bell and Chelliah (2006), Journal of Climate (19) 590-612.

Subtropical systems are only counted in ACE during the unofficial data.... Final data does not include subtropical systems.

source from noaa.



Link

Apparently, not all sources agree with this:

HURDAT does not include data for storm systems that are classified as extratropical. However, it does include data from storms classified as subtropical, meaning they exhibit some characteristics of a tropical cyclone but also some characteristics of an extratropical storm.

Link
Quoting 77. Torito:


LOL I had enough time learning Spanish. ;)


If you can read Spanish, you probably can read Italian with the help of a dictionary. If you took Latin as well, you're almost sure to be able to do it.
Quoting 25. tramp96:
Let's assume GW is real. What is the best way to
get out of it, Socialism or Free Market?


Like just about everything in the real world, the solution is rarely black and white. Nor is the solution between just two options.

Unfortunately policy is not science. Scientists and others have many opinions on how to deal with climate change but ultimately it comes down to the politics and the politicians. And not just in the US, but the rest of the world as well.
Quoting bappit:

You really need to say what the you are talking about specifically. Vague questions get vague answers.

I don't think my question was vague, but let me try again. In over 500 years of deposits, can a geologist tell that an individual layer was laid down in, say, September of 1505? Or, can they only say it happened some time during 1505? Or, can their best guess be sometime between 1500 and 1510? It seems to me that, if you are ascribing one layer of sediment to one giant hurricane, you'd better be able to tell me at least the month and year. If you can't, how can you tell if the the sediment wasn't laid down by storms that occurred close together in time?

I don't know how to be more clear than that.
thanks for the update doc

busy day for me here

good info as always
Quoting 105. sar2401:

I don't think my question was vague, but let me try again. In over 500 years of deposits, can a geologist tell that an individual layer was laid down in, say, September of 1505? Or, can they only say it happened some time during 1505? Or, can their best guess be sometime between 1500 and 1510? It seems to me that, if you are ascribing one layer of sediment to one giant hurricane, you'd better be able to tell me at least the month and year. If you can't, how can you tell if the the sediment wasn't laid down by storms that occurred close together in time?

I don't know how to be more clear than that.

See MrMixon's response #96. He knows more about it than I do. You were happy with his answer, too.
Quoting 105. sar2401:

I don't think my question was vague, but let me try again. In over 500 years of deposits, can a geologist tell that an individual layer was laid down in, say, September of 1505? Or, can they only say it happened some time during 1505? Or, can their best guess be sometime between 1500 and 1510? It seems to me that, if you are ascribing one layer of sediment to one giant hurricane, you'd better be able to tell me at least the month and year. If you can't, how can you tell if the the sediment wasn't laid down by storms that occurred close together in time?

I don't know how to be more clear than that.
Easy just use the peak months of the hurricane season as your best guess, while you might not be able to give exact dates, you should be able to narrow it down logically into the months a hurricane of that magnitude is more likely to occur. These same sediment deposits are found in cores beneath the ocean floor which gives us an idea of what the thermohaline circulation was like back in those days as well. Good stuff keep up the good work scientists. Keep doing what you do.
Pretty. Textured.

Quoting 25. tramp96:
Let's assume GW is real. What is the best way to
get out of it, Socialism or Free Market?


nothing

30 years now of nothing being done or very little the tipping point is fast approaching if not on the doorstep

we just got to learn to take the medicine that is due


faster and faster
111. VR46L
Quoting 98. Torito:




...

How many times should I post this..

*The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index is calculated by summing the squares of the estimated 6-hourly maximum sustained wind speed in knots (Vmax2) for all periods in which the tropical cyclone is a tropical storm or greater intensity (sustained winds of 34 kt or greater). Note that the official NOAA definition of the ACE Index does not include those periods when the system is characterized as sub-tropical. However, we are including this information to allow for comparison between individual cyclones across all basins, many of which contain records which inadequately distinguish between tropical and subtropical cyclones. For a complete description of the ACE Index see Bell and Chelliah (2006), Journal of Climate (19) 590-612.

Subtropical systems are only counted in ACE during the unofficial data.... Final data does not include subtropical systems.

source from NOAA.



Link


Maybe everytime Neapolitian posts Ace figures with STS figures included ;)


Anyway Mel sure looks more the real deal today


Quoting bappit:

See MrMixon's response #96. He knows more about it than I do. You were happy with his answer, too.

Already replied with a study which shows large error rates in dating sediment timing, which was my original question. It appears the best we can do is ballpark figures, which means saying a single event occurring sometime around 1500 may not be very reliable in terms of timing accurate enough to tell if it was really a single event. Belize has had multiple hurricane strikes in one year before, and there's no reason think the same thing didn't occur in the 16th century.
Quoting 17. cynyc2:


I did some back of the napkin stuff a few months back on our layer of CO2. What I came up with was a blanket of CO2 roughly 1 foot thick wrapping the globe. This is at a concentration of 400 ppm.

If anyone has anything better, I'd like to see it please.


400 ppm is 1/2500 of the air. Density falls in half for each 18,000 feet so to figure how thick the CO2 layer would be at sea level pressure, you'd have to know how thick the whole atmosphere would be if it was at a uniform density to the upper edge. I'm thinking 10-12 feet or so of CO2.

If you go by the atmosphere as it really is, and set a cutoff of 500 miles for the exosphere then the thickness of the CO2 if it was in one layer would be 1/2500th of that, or 1/5 mile.
One more day
Ice storm coming for the southern high plains late this week/weekend?

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1022 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2013

VALID 12Z FRI NOV 22 2013 - 12Z TUE NOV 26 2013


THE SPLIT FLOW AT THE MEDIUM RANGE HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC FOR THE
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS' WORTH OF DATA
RUNS. THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVES WITHIN
BOTH STREAMS HAVE BEEN DISPARATELY HANDLED--BOTH INTER- AND
INTRAMODEL. IN SOME CASES, THE SOLUTIONS HAVE INDICATED A
SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE OF PHASING BETWEEN THE STREAMS, WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN SPRAWLING, DEEP CYCLONES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES. EXAMPLES OF SUCH PHASING INCLUDED BOTH
THE 00Z/19 AND 06Z/19 GFS, AND THE 00Z/18 AND 12Z/18 ECMWF--WITH
THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AFFECTED.
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS--PARTICULARLY THE ECENS MEAN--HAVE NOT HAD AS
STRONG OF A PHASING SIGNATURE. THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN FROM THE
00Z/19 DATA CYCLE SEEMS TO BEST REFLECT THE MULTI-DAY AVERAGES AND
TRENDING THAT KEEP THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANT. LATE IN THE
PERIOD, THE CLOSED LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA DAY 3 SHOULD FINALLY
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO, WHERE IT WILL HAVE SOME ROOM
TO EXPAND NORTHWARD.

THE MAJOR SENSIBLE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE THE COLD DELIVERED INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES DAYS 3 AND 4, AND THE MULTI-DAY
PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WITH COLD AIR BANKED WELL
DOWN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAIN, EXPECT SNOWS TO PILE
UP--PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE WEDGE OF LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MAY AFFORD THE
VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE FOR ICE THERE LATER IN THE FORECAST.



CISCO

119. ARiot
Remember the Somali storm?

I think Dr. Masters covered it briefly in a blog entry.

Well aid is getting to those folks slowly but slowly.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/11/aid- reaches-storm-ravaged-somali-region-20131119124147 791238.html

Events and facts.

Link
QuotingDr. Jeff Masters:
...one would expect to see cold-season severe weather events become increasingly common farther to the north in a warming climate.
That statement, unexplained though it is here, does seem to have empirical support. For instance, Francis & Vavrus (2012) found evidence linking year-round extreme weather events at mid-latitudes to Arctic amplification via a pair of mechanisms (a reduced poleward gradient in 1000-500 hPa thickness, and a northward elongation of ridge peaks in 500 hPa waves). And, while research is forthcoming that may help definitively clear the air on this issue, it does seem that a warming climate would naturally bring with it generally greater wintertime instability to more northerly climes.

As always, it will be interesting to see...
Rain!


Somalia: Tropical Cyclone - Nov 2013

Overview

A tropical cyclone made landfall on the Somali coast on 10 Nov 2013. The Puntland authorities declared a natural disaster emergency on 11 Nov, citing very heavy rainfall and flash floods leading to an estimate of more than 100 casualties and large-scale livestock deaths. Communication lines and road access are currently severed, hampering the collection or verification of information and the delivery of assistance. (OCHA, 12 Nov 2013)

UN, ICRC, and partners set up an operational hub in Dangoroyo from where they have reached some of the hardest hit areas with emergency non-food items and medical supplies starting on 13 Nov and with food starting on 15 Nov. Possible disease and contamination of water sources from decaying animal remains is a major concern in the short term with restocking of herds being a medium to long term issue. Numerous water sources have been flooded and are no longer serviceable or are contaminated. While hard-walled structures appeared mostly intact, makeshift structures for pastoralists were destroyed or damaged by high winds and rains. (OCHA, 17 Nov 2013)

OCHA Flash Update 2 - Puntland cyclone 3A | 17 November 2013 - See more at: http://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/ocha-flash-upd ate-2-puntland-cyclone-3a-17-november-2013#sthash. Xf9DGmCy.dpuf

PDF:
From WPTV
Quoting 124. SFLWeatherman:
From WPTV
SFL... Sure doesn't look like November...Funnel cloud warning for Boca
Shhh, Queen Latifa is having someone on next "How to look 10 years younger" Don't bother me for a while....
Quoting 116. DonnieBwkGA:


400 ppm is 1/2500 of the air. Density falls in half for each 18,000 feet so to figure how thick the CO2 layer would be at sea level pressure, you'd have to know how thick the whole atmosphere would be if it was at a uniform density to the upper edge. I'm thinking 10-12 feet or so of CO2.

If you go by the atmosphere as it really is, and set a cutoff of 500 miles for the exosphere then the thickness of the CO2 if it was in one layer would be 1/2500th of that, or 1/5 mile.

You can read about scale height in Wikipedia. David Archer describes it as follows.

"It's called a scale height. So that number is about eight kilometers and it turns out that if you could make the at, the air all have the same density as air at the ground. So that it was like incompressible like the like, like water. That the atmosphere would run out at eight kilometers high. So eight kilometers is kind of like how thick the atmosphere is in some sense, even though mathematically it kind of is infinitely thick. But, this sort of tells you a scale height."

This quote is from a transcript of a lecture in his course "Global Warming: The Science of Climate Change" on Coursera. (They were serious about capturing every utterance, too, which makes it a bit rough.)

If you divide the scale height of the air by 2500, you get something around 3 meters. These are ball park numbers I think.

Quoting 121. Neapolitan:
That statement, unexplained though it is here, does seem to have empirical support. For instance, Francis & Vavrus (2012) found evidence linking year-round extreme weather events at mid-latitudes to Arctic amplification via a pair of mechanisms (a reduced poleward gradient in 1000-500 hPa thickness, and a northward elongation of ridge peaks in 500 hPa waves). And, while research is forthcoming that may help definitively clear the air on this issue, it does seem that a warming climate would naturally bring with it generally greater wintertime instability to more northerly climes.

As always, it will be interesting to see...
Nea... You make me tired friend.. I had to look up "empirical" Can you use another word without making me look it up...? Just a thought...Kinda nasty weather here. Looks like August.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB06-2013
20:30 PM IST November 19 2013
=====================================

Pre-Cyclone Watch for southern Andhra Pradesh and adjoining northern Tamil Nadu coasts

At 15:00 PM UTC, the depression over west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and intensified into a deep depression. The deep depression lays center near 15.0N 85.0E about 550 km east northeast of Chennai, 430 km east southeast of Machilipatnam, and 350 km south southeast of Vishakhapatnam.

The system would further intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs. It would move west northwestwards for some time, then west southwestward and cross south Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coast between Chennai and Ongole, close to Kavali around Thursday night.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
3 HRS: 15.2N 84.8E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
9 HRS: 15.4N 84.5E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 15.4N 83.5E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
46 HRS: 15.0N 81.2E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
70 HRS: 14.5N 78.5E - 25 knots (Depression)
Quoting 128. PalmBeachWeather:
Nea... You make me tired friend.. I had to look up "empirical" Can you use another word without making me look it up...? Just a thought...Kinda nasty weather here. Looks like August.


Not gonna feel like August anywhere in the East in six days with a
seasonably intense arctic outbreak on the way.
Bappit that means my 10-12 foot quick and dirty figuring was pretty good--3 meters being close to 10 feet :)
Quoting 128. PalmBeachWeather:
Nea... You make me tired friend.. I had to look up "empirical" Can you use another word without making me look it up...? Just a thought...Kinda nasty weather here. Looks like August.
If I quit making my hair blonde will I become smarter? It seems I'm having trouble with words over 3 syllables.
us emissions were down 3.7 percent in 2012...
EU down about 1 percent good, but not nearly enough to compensate for the rest of the world
Quoting 130. georgevandenberghe:


Not gonna feel like August anywhere in the East in six days with a
seasonably intense arctic outbreak on the way.
george.... You must have the longest name I have ever seen....Ever.
Sorry if posted already earlier today.

img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1156 am CST Tuesday Nov 19 2013

The cold pool will be firmly settled over the region on
Sunday...with overnight lows cooling into the middle to upper 30s
Saturday night and further dropping into the lower to middle 30s
on Sunday night as winds drop...and the low level inversion
intensifies. Given the very cold 925mb of around 0-5 degrees
celsius...daytime highs will struggle to reach the middle 50s on
Sunday. Some moderation is expected by Monday...as the main heart
of the cold pool shifts to the east along the surface ridge.
However...temperatures will remain close to 10 degrees below
normal on Monday.

Heading into the middle of next week...there are some very large
differences in the models on the timing of a closed low ejecting
out of The Four Corners and moving across the forecast area. All
of the solutions indicate the potential for a Gulf low impacting
the region...but the European model (ecmwf) looks to be about a day too fast in the
development of this system.
Have decided to trend toward the
GFS...which has a slower solution and places the majority of the
impacts over the area on Wednesday.
Quoting 100. sar2401:
EDIT: Found this Sediment Accuracy study. The result show some pretty large error rates.

Hmmmmm, a study of sedimentation rates from a river in Iran. I don't see that that would be directly applicable to distinguishing turbidites created by storm tides at the seashore in Belize. That's like comparing mangoes and pistachios.

Frankly, with that link I think you are just throwing stuff at the wall trying to make something stick.


system AFTER BOB06-2013 (04B)

Melissa is being a typical 2013 storm. Its window for intensification is slowly closing.

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

...MELISSA TURNS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...COULD STILL TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 53.7W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

MELISSA APPEARS TO BE ON THE CUSP OF MAKING THE TRANSITION FROM A
SUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. TWO EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASSES
CAPTURED THE WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH INDICATED
THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD HAD WEAKENED AND THAT THE INNER-CORE WIND
FIELD HAD CONTRACTED INWARD WITH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS NOW AT
ABOUT 40-50 NMI. IN ADDITION...AN 1119 UTC AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED
THAT A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THESE SATELLITE INDICATORS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
MELISSA WAS NOW A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE AMSU DATA ALSO
REVEALED THAT THERE WAS STILL A STRATOSPHERIC CONNECTION TO THE
WARM CORE. THIS...PLUS THE LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ARGUES FOR KEEPING MELISSA A
SUBTROPICAL STORM. SINCE THE ASCAT PASSES MISSED THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LIKELY OCCURRING IN SOME
VIGOROUS CONVECTION...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT
BASED ON A SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...AND
EARLIER 53-56 KT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CIMSS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 040/14 KT. MELISSA HAS FINALLY
MADE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AND MERGING WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 4-5 DAYS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCA AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DROPPED SHARPLY TO ABOUT 7 KT...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE LOW- AND MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS TO
FINALLY BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED. THE ONLY THING PREVENTING
MELISSA FROM MAKING THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. HOWEVER...SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION WOULD ALLOW
MELISSA TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND ALSO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A
TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER
AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN 24-36 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. BY 48 HOURS...INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND ALSO CAUSE
MELISSA TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.

TRACK...INTENSITY... AND WIND RADII FORECASTS DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL STAGE WERE COORDINATED WITH THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 33.0N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 34.9N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 37.4N 46.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 40.1N 41.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 42.4N 35.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z 47.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z 53.5N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting 134. PalmBeachWeather:
george.... You must have the longest name I have ever seen....Ever.


It fit the SAT form, just barely. But yeah it was a bear in kindergarten a half century ago and my kids also gave me grief when they were in kindergarten for the same reason :-)
Quoting 116. DonnieBwkGA:


400 ppm is 1/2500 of the air. Density falls in half for each 18,000 feet so to figure how thick the CO2 layer would be at sea level pressure, you'd have to know how thick the whole atmosphere would be if it was at a uniform density to the upper edge. I'm thinking 10-12 feet or so of CO2.

If you go by the atmosphere as it really is, and set a cutoff of 500 miles for the exosphere then the thickness of the CO2 if it was in one layer would be 1/2500th of that, or 1/5 mile.


Thanks! I figured it using a column of air 1 inch square at 14.7 pounds per square inch, then calculated out the air column at 400 ppm CO2. I don't remember the exact details. Perhaps I miscarried a decimal. My one verses your ten - that's one decimal place...

Thanks for the correction Donnie and other bloggers! It puts things in a tangible perspective that even laymen (like myself) can understand!
Quoting 143. georgevandenberghe:


It fit the SAT form, just barely. But yeah it was a bear in kindergarten a half century ago and my kids also gave me grief when they were in kindergarten for the same reason :-)
Is it worse than Seymore Butts?
Quoting 86. MrMixon:


Exactly. If you want to understand how we distinguish single depositional events from multiple events or how we determine the age of sedimentary layers, do a...

Google Search for "Sequence Stratigraphy" and start reading...

I studied a lot of this stuff in college (geology major), but I'm afraid I'm swamped with work right now and haven't got the time for a more extensive blog comment. But seriously, check out the sequence stratigraphy stuff. If you're a skeptic, read up on current techniques and try to identify any flaws. If you actually find a flaw, then find a geologist who can help you publish it!

Note - dates are generally determined using a combination of radiometric techniques (carbon dating, Cs-137, Pb-210, etc.) and inference from stratigraphic relationships with well-dated layers/events.
Will you consider doing a blog entry of your own on it when you have a little more time? I'd be glad to read a straight-forward explanation.
Quoting 110. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


nothing

30 years now of nothing being done or very little the tipping point is fast approaching if not on the doorstep

we just got to learn to take the medicine that is due


faster and faster


How true!

Most governments will now talk about "how to slow down" or stop CO2^ (carbon dioxide increases) but they should have been doing that 40 years ago. Really, GW is a no brainer as the forcing function of CO2 is simple math, though the exact effect is not. So, 40 years ago, we would have known that trouble was developing.

Now, the governments are talking about how to slow down, when they should be figuring out how to make eugenics acceptable again. Because really, we do not want the most aggresive 10% of our population to survive, and they will, even though the other 90% will become "excess deaths." To keep humanity going, we should find a way to let the most balanced, with respect for nature, and extreme future time orientation and self-reflection survive.

Summary: aggresive, narcissistic = bad

reflective, future-time oriented = good.
Deep Depression BOB06-2013



image released by India Meteorological Department
Really, GW is a no brainer as the forcing function of CO2 is simple math, though the exact effect is not

Because really, we do not want the most aggresive 10% of our population to survive, and they will, even though the other 90% will become "excess deaths."


if we do not know the exact effect....well...then how can we already conclude 90 percent of humanity will die


i believe in climate change...i believe that we should and can make changes to mitigate it.....however to me these types of claims fuel those that would deny CC
Addendum to post 138.

Edit: I use the term turbidite loosely (incorrectly really). Strictly speaking a turbidite is the deposit of a turbidity current underwater.

I think Sar wants to talk about deposits from storm tides which are similar in that they occur suddenly and are not well sorted. Other phenomena produce poorly sorted deposits like lahars or pyroclastic flows. They all share the characterstic of large amounts of unsorted or poorly sorted sediments deposited in a very short time period. The lack of sorting shows that all the material was deposited at basically the same time.

Sar's link has nothing to do with stratigraphy.
Quoting 132. PalmBeachWeather:
If I quit making my hair blonde will I become smarter? It seems I'm having trouble with words over 3 syllables.
Your brain is focused on tomorrow... lol
Quoting 147. ChemPhysMath:


How true!

Most governments will now talk about "how to slow down" or stop CO2^ (carbon dioxide increases) but they should have been doing that 40 years ago. Really, GW is a no brainer as the forcing function of CO2 is simple math, though the exact effect is not. So, 40 years ago, we would have known that trouble was developing.

Now, the governments are talking about how to slow down, when they should be figuring out how to make eugenics acceptable again. Because really, we do not want the most aggresive 10% of our population to survive, and they will, even though the other 90% will become "excess deaths." To keep humanity going, we should find a way to let the most balanced, with respect for nature, and extreme future time orientation and self-reflection survive.

Summary: aggresive, narcissistic = bad

reflective, future-time oriented = good.


We need biological warfare.. as it will eliminate most of humanity, but not cause environmental harm..... wait, what are we talking about?
Quoting 152. BahaHurican:
Your brain is focused on tomorrow... lol
You got that right Baha... I don't think I will sleep tonight
Possible EF2 strength Tornado as it tracks over I-57 overpass near Tuscola. All the power poles were snapped in half and all guardrails on the overpass were stripped off. All trees are nearly debarked.

">

Damage of one of the three houses(this was a 2 story house) that the tornado impacted.





Quoting 105. sar2401:

I don't think my question was vague, but let me try again. In over 500 years of deposits, can a geologist tell that an individual layer was laid down in, say, September of 1505? Or, can they only say it happened some time during 1505? Or, can their best guess be sometime between 1500 and 1510? It seems to me that, if you are ascribing one layer of sediment to one giant hurricane, you'd better be able to tell me at least the month and year. If you can't, how can you tell if the the sediment wasn't laid down by storms that occurred close together in time?

I don't know how to be more clear than that.
Quoting 112. sar2401:

Already replied with a study which shows large error rates in dating sediment timing, which was my original question. It appears the best we can do is ballpark figures, which means saying a single event occurring sometime around 1500 may not be very reliable in terms of timing accurate enough to tell if it was really a single event. Belize has had multiple hurricane strikes in one year before, and there's no reason think the same thing didn't occur in the 16th century.


Quickly (I really should be working). You're combining two different questions into one and the two questions have different answers. Here's what I think you are asking:


1) Can we date a specific layer and say which month and year it was deposited?

No, not generally. But, the presence of things like dead insects, vegetation bits, pollen spores, and tiny ocean creatures like foraminifera in the sedimentary unit can provide strikingly good dates as well as key clues about the sedimentary environment if properly identified. And, of course, relatively young deposits can often be tied to historic records of flooding, storms, etc, and in such cases they CAN be tied to a particular month.


2) Can we look at a sedimentary layer and determine if it was laid down over multiple events or during a single event?

Absolutely, yes. Maybe not always, but in very many cases there are ample clues to distinguish a single depositional event from a sequence of events. There are numerous direct and indirect methods described for doing so in basic sequence stratigraphy books or websites.

Besides the normal radiogenic dating methods, there are cosmogenic and magnetic measurements we can take to distinguish different stratigraphic units and place them in context with one another. Even if you can't accurately date the unit in question you may be able to find an accurate date for the unit directly above or below it, which will provide a relative age for the unit you're studying.

---------------

In other words, a geologist may not be able to say: "This deposit was laid down in May of 1505"...

...but they could certainly say something like "We see here a sequence of thin deltaic deposits dating from the early 1400s. Distinct, regular layering in these deposits is suggestive of seasonal cycles. Above these lies a single massive deposit formed some time in the 1500s. Above this massive deposit we return to a regular sequence of thin deposits which date from the 1600s to present. Based on this evidence we hypothesize that a major sedimentary event struck this area during the 1500s."

Even when absolute dates are not known, fossils, radiogenic isotopes, cosmogenic isotopes, paleomagnetic, or archaeomagnetic techniques can help us distinguish the RELATIVE dates of adjacent units.
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued an

* Urban Flood Advisory for...
east central Palm Beach County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the city of Delray Beach...

* until 500 PM EST

* at 404 PM EST radar indicated slow moving moderate rain showers
over southeast Palm Beach County. The public has reported some roads
have already experienced ponding of water. The showers are expected
to move south and east, which will allow rain to come to an end over
the next hour.

Heavy rainfall will cause ponding of water in urban areas, highways,
streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage areas and low
lying spots. Runoff will also cause elevated waters levels in canals
and ditches.
Quoting 157. SFLWeatherman:
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued an

* Urban Flood Advisory for...
east central Palm Beach County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the city of Delray Beach...

* until 500 PM EST

* at 404 PM EST radar indicated slow moving moderate rain showers
over southeast Palm Beach County. The public has reported some roads
have already experienced ponding of water. The showers are expected
to move south and east, which will allow rain to come to an end over
the next hour.

Heavy rainfall will cause ponding of water in urban areas, highways,
streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage areas and low
lying spots. Runoff will also cause elevated waters levels in canals
and ditches.

Nov 19 2100 GMT 33.0 -53.7 65 982 Subtropical Storm


valid time 06z Wed 18z Wed 06z Thu 18z Thu 18z Fri 18z Sat 18z sun
forecast hour 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
dissipated x 1 2 3 8 12 na
trop depression x 5 13 16 23 29 na
tropical storm 73 75 72 65 59 53 na
hurricane 27 19 13 15 11 6 na
Quoting 146. BahaHurican:
Will you consider doing a blog entry of your own on it when you have a little more time? I'd be glad to read a straight-forward explanation.


Sure, I can do that if there's interest. But... the subject of "sequence stratigraphy" is rather broad for a single blog post. I guess I could focus in on sequence stratigraphy as it relates to hurricanes or other storm deposits. Let me know if there's some other specific aspect of stratigraphy you want to learn more about and I'll do my best to write up a blog about that topic for non-geologists.
I'm not sure if anything will make the GW bunch
happy but this may be a start.
Link
Oh, for the love of...

Will you PLEASE quit with the AGW trolling, Mr. or Ms. Tramp?
Quoting 146. BahaHurican:
Will you consider doing a blog entry of your own on it when you have a little more time? I'd be glad to read a straight-forward explanation.

I think this is about deposits of debris found in the stratigraphic record--the layers of rock and sediment--left by storm surges. I remember seeing some of Ike's debris trapped along I-10 near Trinity River. That was mostly logs, sticks, and smaller stuff stranded against the sides of the bridge (along the median actually!). There were a few abandoned cars, too. I always wondered about the people in the cars.

Here's my amateur stratigraphy knowledge.

In a steady state depositional environment the sediments would tend to be winnowed. Everything smaller than a certain size would be removed. If material were deposited all at once then the winnowing would not have time to occur. You could have very fine particles mixed up with silts, sands, gravel and things like logs and even cars.

The content of a deposit from a storm tide would depend on the environment. In south Louisiana you have a lot of marsh and muck. A storm tide would leave behind a lot of material that would form peat. I've never been to Belize, but I guess there could be coral fragments.

Storms large enough to leave sizable deposits are fairly rare. (Thank goodness for our sakes!) I think that worrying about telling one severe storm's deposits from another is nit picking at best.
164. SLU
The eulogy for the disappointing (thankfully quiet) 2013 hurricane season has been published.

Quoting 162. MrMixon:
Oh, for the love of...

Will you PLEASE quit with the AGW trolling, Mr. or Ms. Tramp?

Uuuuummm no
166. SLU
SUMMARY OF 2013 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND VERIFICATION OF AUTHORS' SEASONAL AND TWO-WEEK FORECASTS

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was much quieter than predicted in our seasonal outlooks. While many of the large-scale conditions typically associated with active seasons were present (e.g., anomalously warm tropical Atlantic, absence of El Niño conditions, anomalously low tropical Atlantic sea level pressures), very dry mid-level air combined with mid-level subsidence and stable lapse rates to significantly suppress the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. These unfavorable conditions were likely generated by a significant weakening of our proxy for the strength of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation/Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation during the late spring into the early summer. Overall activity in 2013 was approximately 30% of the 1981-2010 median.
167. SLU
RIP CSU seasonal forecasts :(

NOTICE OF FORECAST SUSPENSION
The Tropical Meteorology Project has been issuing forecasts for the past thirty years. These predictions have served as a valuable information tool for insurance interests, emergency managers and coastal residents alike. While these forecasts were largely developed utilizing funding from various government agencies, recent attempts at obtaining continued grant funding have been unsuccessful. Funding from several insurance companies enabled the continuation of these forecasts in recent years. However, the forecast team has recently lost some of its financial support from industry. Consequently, new sources of revenue are required to keep the forecast going. Interested parties are invited to contact Phil Klotzbach directly via email at philk@atmos.colostate.edu for additional discussion of potential sponsorship opportunities.
The Tropical Meteorology Project will suspend issuing seasonal forecasts beginning in April 2014, unless additional funding for the forecasts is forthcoming. The CSU forecast team is currently seeking partnerships with the private sector in order to continue these predictions. Please see the sponsorship brochure if you are interested in supporting the forecast team.
Quoting 165. tramp96:

Uuuuummm no


If you're unwilling or unable to make positive contributions to this blog then I at least appreciate you providing the mods with the clear information they need to understand your intentions.
Quoting 164. SLU:
The eulogy for the disappointing (thankfully quiet) 2013 hurricane season has been published.



This year's prediction was a significant bust, in that we expected a very active season. Unlike some previous busts, we do not think that El Nio - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) played a significant role in this year's bust.

LOL HAHA

At the beginning of the season some were saying that 2013 would either be a huge model bust... or a huge forecasting bust.

Well, now we know the answer.

2013, a year to be forgotten. NEXT!
duplicate post

I wonder if other people didn't find their forecasts to be valuable?
Quoting 164. SLU:
The eulogy for the disappointing (thankfully quiet) 2013 hurricane season has been published.


"As has been the case for the past several years, anomalous troughing dominated the
United States East Coast this year (Figure 32). While there were no hurricane threats of
significance to the US mainland this year, the predominant steering flow was such to
keep these TCs away from the East Coast. The United States has now gone eight years
without a landfalling major hurricane."
172. SLU
Straight from the horse's mouth:

The 2013 hurricane season was one of the quietest seasons that we have observed in the past twenty years. While the season had near-average named storm activity, hurricane activity was well below normal. In addition, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was the lowest that has been observed since 1983. This year's prediction was a significant bust, in that we expected a very active season. Unlike some previous busts, we do not think that El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) played a significant role in this year's bust.
going to be hard to fry those turkeys for some folks..

Frank Strait Fan Club
Nasty #Thanksgiving if the models are right. Wow, a Gulf low! #Snow, if any, confined to mountains, though. http://t.co/88jbxHtRjz

Quoting 167. SLU:
RIP CSU seasonal forecasts :(

NOTICE OF FORECAST SUSPENSION
The Tropical Meteorology Project has been issuing forecasts for the past thirty years. These predictions have served as a valuable information tool for insurance interests, emergency managers and coastal residents alike. While these forecasts were largely developed utilizing funding from various government agencies, recent attempts at obtaining continued grant funding have been unsuccessful. Funding from several insurance companies enabled the continuation of these forecasts in recent years. However, the forecast team has recently lost some of its financial support from industry. Consequently, new sources of revenue are required to keep the forecast going. Interested parties are invited to contact Phil Klotzbach directly via email at philk@atmos.colostate.edu for additional discussion of potential sponsorship opportunities.
The Tropical Meteorology Project will suspend issuing seasonal forecasts beginning in April 2014, unless additional funding for the forecasts is forthcoming. The CSU forecast team is currently seeking partnerships with the private sector in order to continue these predictions. Please see the sponsorship brochure if you are interested in supporting the forecast team.


2013... the end of something...

WOW :(

I hate this year.
Quoting 171. TropicalAnalystwx13:

"As has been the case for the past several years, anomalous troughing dominated the
United States East Coast this year (Figure 32). While there were no hurricane threats of
significance to the US mainland this year, the predominant steering flow was such to
keep these TCs away from the East Coast. The United States has now gone eight years
without a landfalling major hurricane."


A new era began...
176. SLU
Quoting 174. CaribBoy:


2013... the end of something...

WOW :(

I hate this year.


It will be sad if they're gone. That's the only forecast I really have faith in since they give you a full report detailing how they arrived at their numbers unlike the others like NOAA who give you a wide range plus a probability of the numbers falling inside that range as if they are afraid to put their necks on the block.
If one is using the SSS for impact as to a Major, well,...



Good luck with dat.
Where to begin with all the things wrong in this video...

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB06-2013
23:30 PM IST November 19 2013
=====================================

Pre-Cyclone Watch for southern Andhra Pradesh and adjoining northern Tamil Nadu coasts

At 18:00 PM UTC, the deep depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved westward and now lays center near 15.0N 84.5E, about 500 km east northeast of Chennai, 380 km east southeast of Machilipatnam, and 330 km south southeast of Vishakhapatnam.

The system would further intensify into a cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours. It would move west northwestward for some time, then west southwestward and cross southern Andhra Pradesh and adjoining northern Tamil Nadu coast between Chennai and Ongole, close to Kavali at around Thursday night.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 15.4N 84.0E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 15.4N 83.5E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 15.0N 81.2E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS: 14.5N 78.5E - 25 knots (Depression)
180. SLU
Special Characteristics of the 2013 Hurricane Season
The 2013 hurricane season had the following special characteristics:

Thirteen named storms occurred during 2013. This is the most named storms to occur in a year with two or fewer hurricanes in the historical record. The 1931 hurricane season had thirteen named storms but only three hurricanes.

35.75 named storm days (NSD) occurred during 2013. This is the fewest NSD since 2009 (30 NSD).

Two hurricanes formed in 2013. This is the fewest hurricanes since 1982 - when two hurricanes also formed.

No major hurricanes formed in 2013. The last year with no major hurricane formations was 1994.

ACE in 2013 was only 30 units. This is the lowest ACE for an Atlantic hurricane season since 1983 (17 ACE).

No major hurricanes made US landfall in 2013. The last major hurricane to make US landfall was Wilma (2005), so the US has now gone eight years without a major hurricane landfall. Since 1878 when relatively reliable landfall data became available, the US has never had an eight-year period without a major hurricane landfall.

The maximum intensity reached by any TC this year was 75 knots (Humberto and Ingrid). This is the weakest maximum intensity achieved by the most intense TC of a season since 1968 (Gladys - 75 knots).

Humberto reached hurricane strength early on September 11. It became the second latest forming first hurricane of the year, developing into a hurricane just hours before the previous record latest forming first hurricane of the year (Gustav - 2002)

Two TCs formed in the Main Development Region (south of 23.5°N, east of 75°W) prior to 1 August. The last year with two TCs forming in this region prior to 1 August was 2005. The median ACE of the 10 years with two TCs in the MDR prior to 1 August was 174 ACE units. The 2013 season clearly defied many of the typical pre-season climate signals.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST November 20 2013
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 3.0N 105.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Quoting 178. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Where to begin with all the things wrong in this video...



Yeah, Jedkins posted that video earlier (#87). What I find particularly surprising is not that such questionable parenting happens (i.e. - Telling your frightened kids to just "shut up" because you need to capture a mediocre tornado video). No, what I find surprising is that someone would record themselves being such a jerk to their kids and then post it online for all the world to see...
Quoting 168. MrMixon:


If you're unwilling or unable to make positive contributions to this blog then I at least appreciate you providing the mods with the clear information they need to understand your intentions.

What is more positive than a good article
on natural gas vehicles. Do I need to put a cherry
on top of the link?
In the Atlantic Basin:

From 1924-1950 there was 10 observed Category 5 Hurricanes.

From 1951-1980 there was 13 observed Category 5 Hurricanes.

From 1981-2010 there was 12 observed Category 5 Hurricanes.

I chose 30 year increments because I think that is a good enough time frame to observe any changes in the climate. Of course to note there was Category 5 hurricanes before 1924, just that none were made official. In fact, I would be willing to bet the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 peaked as a Category 5 Hurricane.

In the EPAC & CPAC:

1950-1980 there was 3 observed Category 5 Hurricanes

1981-2010 there was 11 observed Category 5 Hurricanes

In the WPAC:

1950-1980 there was 88 observed Super Typhoons with wind speeds >155 mph. or equivalent to a Category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Meanwhile, 1981-2010 there were 77 observed Super Typhoons with those wind speeds.

credit: Wikipedia for data from 1924-2010 for the Atlantic and 1950-2010 for the EPAC, CPAC, and WPAC.
Quoting 178. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Where to begin with all the things wrong in this video...



Yeah I posted this earlier, there is so much wrong with this its hard to know where to begin.
This could be fun, lets see if it gets consistant

I'm telling you SLU this is a transition year. You will see next year. 2 possible scenario's I see here, a return to a stronger and expanded A-B High which we saw in 2007 and 2008 or a return to the quiet period before 1995. All this hinges on if we get an El Nino next season. Because 2 years of the same Neutral ENSO and quiet conditions could prove my latter scenario.
THE K-T EXTINCTION

by Richard Cowen


An asteroid big enough to scatter the estimated amount of iridium in the worldwide spike at the K-T boundary may have been about 10 km (6 miles) across. Computer models suggest that if such an asteroid collided with Earth, it would pass through the atmosphere and ocean almost as if they were not there and blast a crater in the crust about 100 km across. The iridium and the smallest pieces of debris would be spread worldwide by the impact blast as the asteroid vaporized into a fireball. If indeed the spike was formed by a large impact, what other evidence should we hope to find in the rock record? Well-known meteorite impact structures often have fragments of shocked quartz and spherules (tiny glass spheres) associated with them (Figure 18.2). The glass is formed as the target rock is melted in the impact, blasted into the air as a spray of droplets, and almost immediately frozen. Over geological time, the glass spherules may decay to clay. Shocked quartz is formed when quartz crystals undergo a sudden pulse of great pressure. If they are not heated enough to melt, they may carry peculiar and unmistakable microstructures (Figure 18.2, top)



A Wyoming (U.S.) rock with an intermediate claystone layer that contains 1000 times more iridium than the upper and lower layers. Picture taken at the San Diego Natural History Museum

Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event
Quoting 186. VAbeachhurricanes:
This could be fun, lets see if it gets consistant

Man if only this was mid-December with the cold air in place :(.I can dreeeeeeeeeeam.
Quoting 167. SLU:
RIP CSU seasonal forecasts :(

NOTICE OF FORECAST SUSPENSION
The Tropical Meteorology Project has been issuing forecasts for the past thirty years. These predictions have served as a valuable information tool for insurance interests, emergency managers and coastal residents alike. While these forecasts were largely developed utilizing funding from various government agencies, recent attempts at obtaining continued grant funding have been unsuccessful. Funding from several insurance companies enabled the continuation of these forecasts in recent years. However, the forecast team has recently lost some of its financial support from industry. Consequently, new sources of revenue are required to keep the forecast going. Interested parties are invited to contact Phil Klotzbach directly via email at philk@atmos.colostate.edu for additional discussion of potential sponsorship opportunities.
The Tropical Meteorology Project will suspend issuing seasonal forecasts beginning in April 2014, unless additional funding for the forecasts is forthcoming. The CSU forecast team is currently seeking partnerships with the private sector in order to continue these predictions. Please see the sponsorship brochure if you are interested in supporting the forecast team.
That is sad...I'm sure someone will step up to the plate. I always look forward to the pre-season forecast with them, even if they busted this year, they usually are pretty darn accurate and offer great insights into the conditions they see for the upcoming season.
Quoting 112. sar2401:

Already replied with a study which shows large error rates in dating sediment timing, which was my original question. It appears the best we can do is ballpark figures, which means saying a single event occurring sometime around 1500 may not be very reliable in terms of timing accurate enough to tell if it was really a single event. Belize has had multiple hurricane strikes in one year before, and there's no reason think the same thing didn't occur in the 16th century.


CAVEAT: I'm not this type of geologist, but...

...if you're dealing with multiple storms producing multiple tempestite deposits, you would expect to see evidence of multiple episodes of scour and rip-ups, including clasts of the relatively-recent storm deposits, as opposed to a relatively-clean single-layer deposit that you'd get from a single storm event.

You could also look for current indicators preserved in the way the sediments were deposited, and see if the patterns are consistent with a single storm, or if they were indicating different directions of current (which may indicate different storms on somewhat different tracks and local intensities).

You could also look to see what sorts of remains of plants/animals are brought in, especially of the microscopic variety. Many of those proliferate seasonally, and can be used to test whether you're looking at one storm or a compendium of several storms.

Those are a few techniques you can use that don't actually require numeric dating of any variety to get a sense of events. It's nice if you can correlate with actual years, but that's difficult and expensive work (though people are doing it).
Quoting 178. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Where to begin with all the things wrong in this video...

I don't know I think he acted calm and wanted to get it on video, I mean which weather crazy like me and you wouldn't want to get something like that on video. Now I didn't like the part where he said he would wait to go downstairs until he saw the tornado pick up houses. With that mentality you endanger yourself and your family.
Quoting 178. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Where to begin with all the things wrong in this video...

His house got destroyed?
Quoting 192. washingtonian115:
And watch you only get Virga :P
Quoting 172. SLU:
Straight from the horse's mouth:

The 2013 hurricane season was one of the quietest seasons that we have observed in the past twenty years. While the season had near-average named storm activity, hurricane activity was well below normal. In addition, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was the lowest that has been observed since 1983. This year's prediction was a significant bust, in that we expected a very active season. Unlike some previous busts, we do not think that El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) played a significant role in this year's bust.
Boy this is going to be good! Can't wait, my guess is SAL and unusually high frequency of ULL's just north of the MDR providing hostile conditions for Cape-Verde storms.
Quoting 197. Patrap:
Launch Tonight of Student-Built Satellites, PhoneSat


Thanks Pat..
29 Satellites in 1 launch..
New record..
Quoting 187. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm telling you SLU this is a transition year. You will see next year. 2 possible scenario's I see here, a return to a stronger and expanded A-B High which we saw in 2007 and 2008 or a return to the quiet period before 1995. All this hinges on if we get an El Nino next season. Because 2 years of the same Neutral ENSO and quiet conditions could prove my latter scenario.
It will be very rare to get a season more quiet than 2013 even with and el nino year. This year is like 2005 as been and anomaly but the other way around.
Quoting 192. washingtonian115:


Looks like you are going to get that snow storm you wanted.
Quoting 199. pcola57:


Thanks Pat..
29 Satellites in 1 launch..
New record..


Launch Vehicle 10 Hours ago

Quoting 178. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Where to begin with all the things wrong in this video...


Wow.... just wow. Horrible parent.
Viewing Data Map for Launch.

Reading back I see CSU is out of business. INTERESTING and scary.

Hopefully they get some financial support to continue. I think we all can agree that more groups is better than less in the world of cyclogensis prediction.
Quoting 169. CaribBoy:


This year's prediction was a significant bust, in that we expected a very active season. Unlike some previous busts, we do not think that El Ni�o - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) played a significant role in this year's bust.

LOL HAHA

At the beginning of the season some were saying that 2013 would either be a huge model bust... or a huge forecasting bust.

Well, now we know the answer.

2013, a year to be forgotten. NEXT!



I'd rather it be a year to be forgotten rather than a year we wish we could forget. We were lucky in the U.S. this year and I'll be thankful for our good fortune with TC (this year)
Quoting 200. Gearsts:
It will be very rare to get a season more quiet than 2013 even with and el nino year. This year is like 2005 as been and anomaly but the other way around.
True, but at some point this active period that we are in will be coming to an end. Honestly, if this was an El-Nino season I wouldn't be surprised by the lack of hurricanes and major hurricanes shoot we even get those in an El-Nino season. Something went wrong this season and it came fast, as the conditions throughout the Atlantic was very favorable in the beginning of the season, we were up to Dorian by July and had 2 Cape-Verde storms by then, albeit weak, it was still an anomaly at the time. Also, they are some theories like the EPAC was active which meant the Atlantic went quiet.
Quoting 194. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I don't know I think he acted calm and wanted to get it on video, I mean which weather crazy like me and you wouldn't want to get something like that on video. Now I didn't like the part where he said he would wait to go downstairs until he saw the tornado pick up houses. With that mentality you endanger yourself and your family.

Getting it on video is fine, but there's a point where you have to put down the camera. His toddlers were screaming for him to come downstairs with them and he told them to shut up and stop being scared (and go by themselves).

Quoting 195. Gearsts:
His house got destroyed?

From reading through the comments, apparently.
Quoting 203. Doppler22:

Wow.... just wow. Horrible parent.


I feel like that guy is the future me IF I became a father...except I would be talking about the different meteorological aspects of the storm AND telling my kids to shut up.

Quoting 31. sar2401:
I've seen a lot about the tornadoes but almost nothing about the straight line winds. From the reports of relatives who live in Ohio and Pennsylvania, there was massive tree damage as well as structural damage from winds gusting to 70 mph. Although some of the tornadoes caused massive damage, the straight line winds covered a much larger area and affected many more people. I don't know how damage figures are calculated, but I'd be interested to find out how much of this estimated $1 billion in damage includes straight line winds.


I know that the Air Force Base in Peru, IN recorded something along the lines of 84 mph, and another station somewhere else recorded 100 mph. My aunt in Walton, IN (north of Kokomo) said that 8 telephone poles were snapped in two.
Quoting 208. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Getting it on video is fine, but there's a point where you have to put down the camera. His toddlers were screaming for him to come downstairs with them and he told them to shut up and stop being scared (and go by themselves).


From reading through the comments, apparently.
Yeah I know what you mean. I wonder where is wife was and if she selfishly went downstairs without taking the kids with her? And I agree with what Mr. Mixon in post 182 said.
Quoting 192. washingtonian115:

What?? Where is that from?
This would be an interesting Thanksgiving:

Quoting 209. Astrometeor:


I feel like that guy is the future me IF I became a father...except I would be talking about the different meteorological aspects of the storm AND telling my kids to shut up.



I know that the Air Force Base in Peru, IN recorded something along the lines of 84 mph, and another station somewhere else recorded 100 mph. My aunt in Walton, IN (north of Kokomo) said that 8 telephone poles were snapped in two.


I think I might be standing at the door taking a video as well. However I would not tell my kids that houses aren't flying yet so we are fine. And I would make sure they are in the basement and if they are crying because they're scared I wouldn't say shutup. I'd try to calm them as best as possible in a better way.
Quoting 209. Astrometeor:


I feel like that guy is the future me IF I became a father...except I would be talking about the different meteorological aspects of the storm AND telling my kids to shut up.



I know that the Air Force Base in Peru, IN recorded something along the lines of 84 mph, and another station somewhere else recorded 100 mph. My aunt in Walton, IN (north of Kokomo) said that 8 telephone poles were snapped in two.
Oh don't say that, you are a pretty smart person on here, so I know you would make a way better decision than that guy, at least I hope you would.
Quoting 212. MAweatherboy1:
This would be an interesting Thanksgiving:


Do you think that might be what post 192 is of?
Keeping in mind that a multitude of surveys are still ongoing, the number of confirmed tornadoes from Sunday's outbreak has reached 50. A total of 11 were EF0s, while 18 EF1s, 14 were EF2s, 5 were EF3s, and 2 were EF4s.
Quoting 215. Doppler22:

Do you think that might be what post 192 is of?

No, not sure why that was posted without some sort of disclaimer. Needless to say there's nothing like that on the way.
Just keep in mind that trivializing your childrens' fear and telling them to "shut up" when they are scared may diminish their ability to see you as a trustworthy authority figure...

...particularly if your house is destroyed moments later.
Quoting 213. Doppler22:


I think I might be standing at the door taking a video as well. However I would not tell my kids that houses aren't flying yet so we are fine. And I would make sure they are in the basement and if they are crying because they're scared I wouldn't say shutup. I'd try to calm them as best as possible in a better way.


Do you have kids? Just curious, not saying you are giving bad advice.

That is just tough to accomplish with toddlers. You need to step back and comfort them.
Quoting 217. MAweatherboy1:

No, not sure why that was posted without some sort of disclaimer. Needless to say there's nothing like that on the way.

Alright thanks. It would be cool to see snow on Thanksgiving, but that would make it an issue to get to the family member houses. And plus, it might mess with Macy's parade which I watch every year!


Quoting 219. Dakster:


Do you have kids? Just curious, not saying you are giving bad advice.

That is just tough to accomplish with toddlers. You need to step back and comfort them.

Haha not yet :p. I would probably have my wife take them in the basement if possible. If I am the only one home, then I would at least take a shorter video so my kids wouldn't be so scared.
Where'd this little guy come from?



Quoting 210. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yeah I know what you mean. I wonder where is wife was and if she selfishly went downstairs without taking the kids with her? And I agree with what Mr. Mixon in post 182 said.


No, because I think one of the kids whimpered "Will Mommy be alright?" The father didn't respond to that, so I'm assuming the wife was at another location.

Quoting 214. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh don't say that, you are a pretty smart person on here, so I know you would make a way better decision than that guy, at least I hope you would.


You're right. I wouldn't have kids in the first place.
I don't know if you guys have seen this yet, but WFO IWX has confirmed a high-end EF2 tornado in White County, Indiana. It was on the ground for 10.52 miles and was 1.7 miles wide at its width!

Mother Nature is putting out some huge tornadoes this year.

I'd venture to say it was stronger than EF-2. The area it tracked over was fairly rural with just a handful of structures.

...TORNADO /WHITE COUNTY IN/...

RATING: EF-2
MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 125 MPH
MAXIMUM ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH: 3000 YARDS
PATH LENGTH: 10.52 MILES (LONGER IF YOU INCLUDE BENTON COUNTY
SECTION)
START TIME: ESTIMATED AROUND 246PM EST
END TIME: ESTIMATED AROUND 256PM EST
LOCATION: ENTERED WHITE COUNTY NEAR BENTON/WHITE/TIPPECANOE COUNTY
BORDER. LIFTED APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES WNW OF BROOKSTON.
DESCRIPTION: CONTINUED FROM BENTON COUNTY. VERY WIDE CIRCULATION
WITH EMBEDDED VORTICIES. 20 TO 25 BARNS DESTROYED WITH DEBRIS THROWN
UP TO 2 MILES AWAY. 10 TWO FOOT DIAMETER WOODEN ELECTRICITY POLES
SNAPPED AT THE BASE. SMALL HOME HAD ITS ROOF COMPLETELY REMOVED WITH
THE DEBRIS THROWN UP TO HALF A MILE NORTHEAST. SECTIONS OF THE ROOF
WERE STUCK IN THE GROUND LIKE PROJECTILES.
Quoting 223. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't know if you guys have seen this yet, but WFO IWX has confirmed a high-end EF2 tornado in White County, Indiana. It was on the ground for 10.52 miles and was 1.7 miles wide at its width!

Mother Nature is putting out some huge tornadoes this year.

I'd venture to say it was stronger than EF-2. The area it tracked over was fairly rural with just a handful of structures.

...TORNADO /WHITE COUNTY IN/...

RATING: EF-2
MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 125 MPH
MAXIMUM ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH: 3000 YARDS
PATH LENGTH: 10.52 MILES (LONGER IF YOU INCLUDE BENTON COUNTY


What do they mean by the bolded part?

Edit: I should say, how long is the total path? And why do they not just use the total length?
Quoting 184. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I
1950-1980 there was 88 observed Super Typhoons with wind speeds >155 mph. or equivalent to a Category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.


Some of them may have been category 4s due to the potentially higher readings obtained in the 50s & 60s. But interesting post. It'll be interesting to see how many majors there are for comparison.
Quoting 224. Astrometeor:


What do they mean by the bolded part?

The tornado began in Indianapolis' jurisdiction but entered IWX's. Weather offices only survey damage portions that occurred in their WFO.
Our local NWS office rarely gives a 100% chance of precip...



There's definitely plenty of moisture streaming in from the Pacific (click to animate)...



The GFS seems to be pretty ambitious with totals...



Looks like 8-12" for my area... should be an interesting few days around here.
Quoting 225. Envoirment:


Some of them may have been category 4s due to the potentially higher readings obtained in the 50s & 60s. But interesting post. It'll be interesting to see how many majors there are for comparison.
Thanks it took me awhile to go through all the WPAC seasons starting with 1950 and ending in 2010 because the classification for Super Typhoons includes strong Category 4 Typhoons as well. I only included Category 5's in this list to see if the frequency had increased. It increased in the EPAC and the Atlantic, but decreased in the WPAC.
Quoting 220. Doppler22:

Alright thanks. It would be cool to see snow on Thanksgiving, but that would make it an issue to get to the family member houses. And plus, it might mess with Macy's parade which I watch every year!



Haha not yet :p. I would probably have my wife take them in the basement if possible. If I am the only one home, then I would at least take a shorter video so my kids wouldn't be so scared.


Just wait until you do - Mommy sometimes isn't enough on her own. They need BOTH of you. Sometimes Daddy isn't enough alone either. It's what makes separated or widowed parenting so tough.

Either way you can't really do worse than that guy did.
Quoting 221. MAweatherboy1:
Where'd this little guy come from?



HGW has been posting BOB updates on that for 2-3 days now...

Quoting 228. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thanks it took me awhile to go through all the WPAC seasons starting with 1950 and ending in 2010 because the classification for Super Typhoons includes strong Category 4 Typhoons as well. I only included Category 5's in this list to see if the frequency had increased. It increased in the EPAC and the Atlantic, but decreased in the WPAC.


Nice work GT...

Hypothesize, are we in a period of low activity now?
I originally started using Wunderground's hurricane archive and when I started seeing no storms 155 mph. or greater from 1976-2008 for the WPAC I said, hold up that can't be right, so I went to Wikipedia and found plenty of storms that exceeded that threshold and just used their data and it was better for consistency with what I was using for the EPAC and Atlantic. I wonder why the discrepancy?
233. SLU
Quoting 184. GTstormChaserCaleb:
In the Atlantic Basin:

From 1924-1950 there was 10 observed Category 5 Hurricanes.

From 1951-1980 there was 13 observed Category 5 Hurricanes.

From 1981-2010 there was 12 observed Category 5 Hurricanes.


I chose 30 year increments because I think that is a good enough time frame to observe any changes in the climate. Of course to note there was Category 5 hurricanes before 1924, just that none were made official. In fact, I would be willing to bet the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 peaked as a Category 5 Hurricane.

In the EPAC & CPAC:

1950-1980 there was 3 observed Category 5 Hurricanes

1981-2010 there was 11 observed Category 5 Hurricanes

In the WPAC:

1950-1980 there was 88 observed Super Typhoons with wind speeds >155 mph. or equivalent to a Category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Meanwhile, 1981-2010 there were 77 observed Super Typhoons with those wind speeds.

credit: Wikipedia for data from 1924-2010 for the Atlantic and 1950-2010 for the EPAC, CPAC, and WPAC.


So contrary to popular opinion, there has not been any increase in very intense hurricanes as purported by the media.
My favorite quote from below: "Had to kick the door down to get out of my destroyed house, luckily it was a cheap door." Yeah...the door should be the last thing that is on your mind financial-wise.

Radio Interview with David Bandy (man who yelled 'shut up' at kids)
235. SLU
Quoting 187. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm telling you SLU this is a transition year. You will see next year. 2 possible scenario's I see here, a return to a stronger and expanded A-B High which we saw in 2007 and 2008 or a return to the quiet period before 1995. All this hinges on if we get an El Nino next season. Because 2 years of the same Neutral ENSO and quiet conditions could prove my latter scenario.


Yeah, next year's season forecast will be very, very tricky and I suspect the forecasters will be very tentative about inflating the numbers next year even if enhancing factors are present in the preceding months.
Quoting 233. SLU:


So contrary to popular opinion, there has not been any increase in very intense hurricanes as purported by the media.

Would you happen to have a link? I've not seen anywhere that said hurricanes would definitely become more intense in a warming climate; there are some hypotheses that what we've seen the past two years (more but weaker) is the new trend. It's an uncertain topic.
Quoting 233. SLU:


So contrary to popular opinion, there has not been any increase in very intense hurricanes as purported by the media.
Correct, based on what I collected there is no trend up or down, well except for the WPAC which declined in a 30 year average, however, like Envoirment said, the classification scale changed in the 1970s. In fact, some below 155 mph. storms were classified as Category 5 Super Typhoons.
Quoting 213. Doppler22:


I think I might be standing at the door taking a video as well. However I would not tell my kids that houses aren't flying yet so we are fine. And I would make sure they are in the basement and if they are crying because they're scared I wouldn't say shutup. I'd try to calm them as best as possible in a better way.


I'd be in the basement right after the kids. I'll watch other daredevils' videos.
Quoting 236. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Would you happen to have a link? I've not seen anywhere that said hurricanes would definitely become more intense in a warming climate; there are some hypotheses that what we've seen the past two years (more but weaker) is the new trend. It's an uncertain topic.
Oh trust me Cody, it has been claimed by many on here that we would see an increase in intense hurricanes due to a warming climate. Just have to go back to past blogs to see for yourself.
Quoting 231. Dakster:


Nice work GT...

Hypothesize, are we in a period of low activity now?
You really can't go off on one year of activity. We have to wait a few years before we can determine if we have indeed entered a quiet period. For me if we get another neutral ENSO season next year with numbers in the same ballpark, I think that would be convincing enough for me that we are heading into quieter times.
Quoting 235. SLU:


Yeah, next year's season forecast will be very, very tricky and I suspect the forecasters will be very tentative about inflating the numbers next year even if enhancing factors are present in the preceding months.


yep, so they will make them 'low' and then will get killed with a large number of storms... Mother nature has a sense of humor, I think she reads this blog too.
Quoting 215. Doppler22:

Do you think that might be what post 192 is of?


To Dream.. The impossible DREAM!!

Post 192 looks like a winter fantasy ATTM unless by snow you mean that cold liquid stuff that chills to the bone after soaking through all of your layers. THAT's what looks to be in the cards for DC next week.

But things could change and in 1989 I dealt with substantial snow (4" peak on 95 S) from DC to almost RIC on my way to Williamsburg thanksgiving eve. Next morning there was a coating in Williamsburg (in NOV!)
Quoting 234. Astrometeor:
My favorite quote from below: "Had to kick the door down to get out of my destroyed house, luckily it was a cheap door." Yeah...the door should be the last thing that is on your mind financial-wise.

Radio Interview with David Bandy (man who yelled 'shut up' at kids)

Cheaper doors are easier to kick down.
Quoting 234. Astrometeor:
My favorite quote from below: "Had to kick the door down to get out of my destroyed house, luckily it was a cheap door." Yeah...the door should be the last thing that is on your mind financial-wise.

Radio Interview with David Bandy (man who yelled 'shut up' at kids)


Not really sure what was wrong with his comment there... The video where he was telling his kids to shut up... sure.
Quoting 211. Doppler22:

What?? Where is that from?
This is old.But it illustrates that with the cold air in place and the low in the right place we could get a good snow storm here in D.C if the pattern sets up like that for winter.
Quoting 212. MAweatherboy1:
This would be an interesting Thanksgiving:

I remember the GFS showed a snow storm like that,that was suppose to happen at that same time frame last week..The reality? Sunshine with temps in the upper 50's.Would be nice to have snow on Thanksgiving though.
17.72'' of rain in 2 hours in Sardinia is Major rainfall. (Dr. M's comments above).

Scary stuff there.

And those Tornados.
Mama Mia !
Quoting 221. MAweatherboy1:
Where'd this little guy come from?




From 90W. :P
Quoting 227. MrMixon:
Our local NWS office rarely gives a 100% chance of precip...



There's definitely plenty of moisture streaming in from the Pacific (click to animate)...



The GFS seems to be pretty ambitious with totals...



Looks like 8-12" for my area... should be an interesting few days around here.


That's like Central Florida, if the precip forecast is 100%, expect at least 3 to 4 inches of rain, and possibly more, lol.

I've seen a lot of days where rainfall is expected to be several inches and the forecast still will be 80 or 90% though.

00z Best Track down to 50kts.

AL, 14, 2013112000, , BEST, 0, 332N, 532W, 50, 985, SS, 50, NEQ, 80, 80, 50, 60, 1008, 400, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M
The odds of Melissa making the transition to a tropical storm are diminishing:

Quoting 251. Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track down to 50kts.

AL, 14, 2013112000, , BEST, 0, 332N, 532W, 50, 985, SS, 50, NEQ, 80, 80, 50, 60, 1008, 400, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M
NOOOOOO!!!! Melissa is dying and so too is the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. So not fair, I didn't get my major hurricane out in the open Atlantic!

Quoting 250. Jedkins01:


That's like Central Florida, if the precip forecast is 100%, expect at least 3 to 4 inches of rain, and possibly more, lol.

I've seen a lot of days where rainfall is expected to be several inches and the forecast still will be 80 or 90% though.



Just like I have left the house with it raining and it says 70% chance of rain...
A bit random perhaps, but I wonder when we're gonna see the mother of all El Nino events again?



Oh dear... the warming.
Quoting 255. KoritheMan:
A bit random, perhaps, but I wonder when we're gonna see the mother of all El Nino events again?



Oh dear... the warming.
Meanwhile, the 1997 Pacific Typhoon Season went berserk! 11 Super Typhoons (record high since 1965)

Quoting 248. pottery:
17.72'' of rain in 2 hours in Sardinia is Major rainfall. (Dr. M's comments above).

Scary stuff there.

And those Tornados.
Mama Mia !

That much rainfall for so little time is extremely notable indeed, and if verified, would be very near (if not in excess of) the world record intensity for that duration. The May 31, 1935 D'Hanis, TX rainfall holds the 2.75 hour record at 22", which works out to an 8 in/h average. The rate in question is in excess of that (albeit for a shorter duration). Still though, a possible extreme event like that needs verification. As it stands, I find it somewhat hard to believe that even if a significant orographic factor was at play, a rainfall of that intensity could occur that far north during the colder months. It'll be interesting to hear how that report is handled in the meteorological community.
258. SLU
Quoting 236. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Would you happen to have a link? I've not seen anywhere that said hurricanes would definitely become more intense in a warming climate; there are some hypotheses that what we've seen the past two years (more but weaker) is the new trend. It's an uncertain topic.


Well I'm mostly coming from the perspective of media sensationalism exaggerating certain factors with respect to hurricanes that portray to the public that events like Katrina and Sandy are so "extreme" in nature and that they must be a sign of more intense hurricanes nowadays.
Quoting 255. KoritheMan:
A bit random perhaps, but I wonder when we're gonna see the mother of all El Nino events again?



Oh dear... the warming.

Probably no time soon with the negative PDO in place. El Nino events of that magnitude even without considering the PDO are rare.
EDIT: nevermind
Quoting 260. Doppler22:
Anyone have a live stream of the satellites launch?


http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nasa-tv-wallops
Quoting 1900hurricane:

That much rainfall for so little time is extremely notable indeed, and if verified, would be very near (if not in excess of) the world record intensity for that duration. The May 31, 1935 D'Hanis, TX rainfall holds the 2.75 hour record at 22", which works out to an 8 in/h average. The rate in question is in excess of that (albeit for a shorter duration). Still though, a possible extreme event like that needs verification. As it stands, I find it somewhat hard to believe that even if a significant orographic factor was at play, a rainfall of that intensity could occur that far north during the colder months. It'll be interesting to hear how that report is handled in the meteorological community.

Indeed. Good points.
Will be interested to see the verification, and hopefully a visual of the graph.

Incredible torrent of rain.
NVM
Again..
Quoting 192. washingtonian115:
Is this gonna happen or is it a joke ?
Better get the bread lol
Perhaps another storm that just couldn't do it in a season that just couldn't do it?



I don't even know if it's significant anymore that one storm is symbolic of the whole season....because every storm has been symbolic of the whole season.
Bring it on! El-Nino seems like it wants to make an appearance this Winter.



Quoting 267. wxgeek723:
Perhaps another storm that just couldn't do it in a season that just couldn't do it?



I don't even know if it's significant anymore that one storm is symbolic of the whole season....because every storm has been symbolic of the whole season.
Not true, it was a subtropical storm is gets a pass and conditions aren't as ideal as they were earlier in the season. What happened earlier in the season still remains a mystery until solved by the pros, until then it is all speculation.
Quoting 236. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Would you happen to have a link? I've not seen anywhere that said hurricanes would definitely become more intense in a warming climate; there are some hypotheses that what we've seen the past two years (more but weaker) is the new trend. It's an uncertain topic.


do you not blog here every day? :) all you have to do is go back to a previous blog and voila..you will find it..
Could be a tornado outbreak across FL & GA next week as a strong Gulf Low moves NE toward the FL Panhandle.

Quoting 268. StormTrackerScott:
Bring it on! El-Nino seems like it wants to make an appearance this Winter.



HERE WE GO !!! Hold tight !
Quoting 267. wxgeek723:
Perhaps another storm that just couldn't do it in a season that just couldn't do it?



I don't even know if it's significant anymore that one storm is symbolic of the whole season....because every storm has been symbolic of the whole season.


Perhaps implies a sliver of uncertainty, Trent. Not perhaps. Definitely. Melissa failed, okay? This whole season failed.
Showed my little brother the rocket launch. Its the first rocket he's seen before (not on TV.)He loved it and when we ran outside we saw the Bright Orange light rising rapidly and he was getting all excited :p Its the little things
Quoting 273. ncstorm:


Global Cooling. :-P
Would love a cool Christmas in south Florida this season. Temps in the 80's last year, but was pretty nice January and February.
Quoting 268. StormTrackerScott:
Bring it on! El-Nino seems like it wants to make an appearance this Winter.





CFSv2 forecasts El Nino to come by late Spring to early Summer.
It will come just patience.. patience..
Quoting 278. Tropicsweatherpr:


CFSv2 forecasts El Nino to come by late Spring to early Summer.


Could be much sooner if we keep warming at the pace we have been the last 60 days. Already the jet stream across the US is resembling that of an El-Nino and this could have the what causes one of the biggest tornado outbreaks of the year thus far.
Quoting 267. wxgeek723:
Perhaps another storm that just couldn't do it in a season that just couldn't do it?



I don't even know if it's significant anymore that one storm is symbolic of the whole season....because every storm has been symbolic of the whole season.
Complete dissappointment.
Quoting 274. KoritheMan:


Perhaps implies a sliver of uncertainty, Trent. Not perhaps. Definitely. Melissa failed, okay? This whole season failed.


Well I was going to speak definitively but I feared that would provoke a 'She's not dead yet' response.
Quoting 278. Tropicsweatherpr:


CFSv2 forecasts El Nino to come by late Spring to early Summer.
El Nino 2014 Hurricane Season? Get ready for another dud of a hurricane season. Tropical Depression part II coming to a theater near you.
285. yoboi
Quoting 240. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh trust me Cody, it has been claimed by many on here that we would see an increase in intense hurricanes due to a warming climate. Just have to go back to past blogs to see for yourself.


Increase means dercrease.....cold means hot....it's a very confusing topic.....
Quoting 283. GTstormChaserCaleb:
El Nino 2014 Hurricane Season? Get ready for another dud of a hurricane season. Tropical Depression part II coming to a theater near you.
That would be funny because the 100th year anniversary of the 1914 hurricane season would be next year. Do we get quiet hurricane seasons every 100 years now ?
By the way my stay at the Sunset Vistas in Treasure Island was amazing. It was also really hot the days I stayed there. People in Tampa in general are all very nice and welcoming.
Quoting 282. wxgeek723:


Well I was going to speak definitively but I feared that would provoke a 'She's not dead yet' response.


Well she is. :/
Quoting 283. GTstormChaserCaleb:
El Nino 2014 Hurricane Season? Get ready for another dud of a hurricane season. Tropical Depression part II coming to a theater near you.
I'll take anything :(
Quoting 272. Climate175:
HERE WE GO !!! Hold tight !




Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
El Nino 2014 Hurricane Season? Get ready for another dud of a hurricane season. Tropical Depression part II coming to a theater near you.

That would be fine with me.
But I wouldn't put all my eggs in that one basket just yet.....
I guarantee you that Charlie Brown wouldnt be sitting outside looking for the great pumpkin in this mess..



Quoting 290. BaltimoreBrian:




Quoting 292. ncstorm:
I guarantee you that Charlie Brown wouldnt be sitting outside looking for the great pumpkin in this mess..

Could be a snow or rain nor'easter...
Quoting 277. GeoffreyWPB:
Would love a cool Christmas in south Florida this season. Temps in the 80's last year, but was pretty nice January and February.
That is very selfish thought. Comfortable temperatures for you mean devastated crops and orchards for the rest of Florida. Those are the last things we make in America, and the labor is outsourced. Buy a trailer in a dirt poor county in North Florida for next to nothing. Get a fuel efficient vehicle to travel there every winter, and I guarantee that you will have all the cold you can stand.
Quoting 236. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Would you happen to have a link? I've not seen anywhere that said hurricanes would definitely become more intense in a warming climate; there are some hypotheses that what we've seen the past two years (more but weaker) is the new trend. It's an uncertain topic.
Popular opinion is not the same as scientific hypothesis on this issue.
Quoting 295. Pallis:
That is very selfish thought. Comfortable temperatures for you mean devastated crops and orchards for the rest of Florida. Those are the last things we make in America, and the labor is outsourced. Buy a trailer in a dirt poor county in North Florida for next to nothing. Get a fuel efficient vehicle to travel there every winter, and I guarantee that you will have all the cold you can stand.


One man's trash is another man's treasure, I suppose. ;)
Quoting 274. KoritheMan:


Perhaps implies a sliver of uncertainty, Trent. Not perhaps. Definitely. Melissa failed, okay? This whole season failed.
very strange indeed
Quoting 260. Doppler22:
EDIT: nevermind
What, you don't want to get dragged into Climategate again? Well, here is some interesting reading about the DOW truck. This is a must read for New Yaakers and other Naahtherners. Sorry, I do not know how to link it.
Ideas, inventions, and innovations
Thundersnow: Rare Anywhere
6:59 PM Alton Parrish
Quoting 289. Gearsts:
I'll take anything :(

I don't care if there is an El Nino coming, that usually means a great winter!!! I'd rather take a active winter and dull season then a dull winter and a dull season like this past year
Quoting 299. Pallis:
What, you don't want to get dragged into Climategate again? Well, here is some interesting reading about the DOW truck. This is a must read for New Yaakers and other Naahtherners. Sorry, I do not know how to link it. Thundersnow: Rare Anywhere
6:59 PM Alton Parrish

I said nevermind because I found the link to the rocket launch and I didn't need it anymore.
Quoting 240. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh trust me Cody, it has been claimed by many on here that we would see an increase in intense hurricanes due to a warming climate. Just have to go back to past blogs to see for yourself.
The scientists started out with this as a hypothesis. Then we heard fewer intense storms but greater intensity in those storms. The latest one [I think] is greater number of weaker storms, but fewer intense storms [ due to increased vertical shear]. While many dogmatic people on this blog have their opinions, the scientists seem to still be evolving on this one.
Quoting 302. BahaHurican:
The scientists started out with this as a hypothesis. Then we heard fewer intense storms but greater intensity in those storms. The latest one [I think] is greater number of weaker storms, but fewer intense storms [ due to increased vertical shear]. While many dogmatic people on this blog have their opinions, the scientists seem to still be evolving on this one.


the scientists sound real confuse..
14L/D/XX
Check out some of these crazy temperature gradients being thrown out there by the SREF members for the late week front. Some of them are pretty eye opening!

Quoting 301. Doppler22:

I said nevermind because I found the link to the rocket launch and I didn't need it anymore.
Oh. I remember my first one. It was from Naples in the 80s. It was very orange from the extreme humidity and then it totally disappeared, but we felt lucky to have seen it anyways because we never had to do anything but walk out on the back porch. Afterwards it was like, O.K. lets eat pizza and ice cream and play Axis and Allies. It was kind of boring compared to being right next to a top fuel drag race even though the rocket is really the top fuel. I really think they are going to try to put governors on nitro burning cars. Kind of takes the fun out of it.
Quoting 303. ncstorm:


the scientists sound real confuse..


that's what happens
when ya end up at the point
of the great unknown
the big storm on the east coast
309. SLU
Quoting 278. Tropicsweatherpr:


CFSv2 forecasts El Nino to come by late Spring to early Summer.
Quoting 283. GTstormChaserCaleb:
El Nino 2014 Hurricane Season? Get ready for another dud of a hurricane season. Tropical Depression part II coming to a theater near you.


I hate EL Nino: Boring, hot and drought-like conditions in the dry season (winter) and an uninteresting tropical season to follow....


Quoting SLU:


I hate EL Nino: Boring, hot and drought-like conditions in the dry season (winter) and an uninteresting tropical season to follow....



Yeah, not liking the idea of a long dry season down here atall at all
311. yoboi
The deadly Midwest storm system on Sunday, which included two of the most powerful November tornadoes that far north for more than 100 years, caused an estimated $1 billion in damage, an expert said Tuesday.

One of the two EF4 tornadoes recorded on Sunday devastated large parts of Washington, Ill., a town of 16,000 people some 140 miles from Chicago. Authorities on Tuesday doubled to 1,000 the number of homes damage or destroyed in the tempest.


Link
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

...MELISSA LOSING STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 52.4W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF MELISSA IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN A FEW
HOURS AGO...WITH JUST A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION FORMING NEAR AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY MORE
TROPICAL THAN EARLIER...SO IT IS BEING KEPT AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH ASCAT
DATA AND THE LATEST TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE. ALTHOUGH MELISSA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS SOON...A LARGE INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND SOME NON-TROPICAL FORCING COULD OFFSET THE
DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES. THUS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NHC PREDICTION...AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MELISSA COULD
STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE MOVING
OVER COLDER WATERS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS DUE
TO EXTREMELY COLD WATER AND LOSS OF BAROCLINIC FORCING. MELISSA IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS
DUE TO THE COLDER WATERS...AND INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN
ABOUT 3 DAYS.

THE STORM IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KT. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MELISSA ACCELERATING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48H AHEAD OF A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE LATEST CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...
AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY BE
ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW AND/OR ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WITHIN
96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 33.6N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 35.7N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 38.4N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 40.8N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0000Z 43.0N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/0000Z 48.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/0000Z 54.0N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Quoting 307. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


that's what happens
when ya end up at the point
of the great unknown
Here Here!
From Miami NWS Disco...

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPS
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEEPEN THE TROUGH AS MUCH AND THUS SHOWS
A LACK OF PUSH TO BRING A CLEAN SWEEP FOR THE COLD FRONT AND STALLS
IT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT MEX GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. SO AT THIS TIME,
IT IS A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.
2013.

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

...MELISSA LOSING STRENGTH...
Quoting 317. wxgeek723:
2013.

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

...MELISSA LOSING STRENGTH...


...sigh...

I didn't explicitly say so but yesterday I thought Melissa would be a hurricane by 5 p.m. today. Blah. 2013 strikes again!
Quoting 309. SLU:


I hate EL Nino: Boring, hot and drought-like conditions in the dry season (winter) and an uninteresting tropical season to follow....


But if it's a modoki el nino it could get interesting.
The gap in the ratio between named storms and hurricanes seems to get wider every year.

Quoting 319. washingtonian115:
But if it's a modoki el nino it could get interesting.


this pls
Quoting 316. GeoffreyWPB:
From Miami NWS Disco...

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPS
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEEPEN THE TROUGH AS MUCH AND THUS SHOWS
A LACK OF PUSH TO BRING A CLEAN SWEEP FOR THE COLD FRONT AND STALLS
IT NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT MEX GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. SO AT THIS TIME,
IT IS A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.
Set the honey badgers on the Paw Paw trees and send the beavers downstream. Even translated into English, my version is much shorter. Can you imagine how many syllables a Spanish translation would take for such a simple message?
Quoting 320. wxgeek723:
The gap in the ratio between named storms and hurricanes seems to get wider every year.



this pls
I really ant a nice sized snow storm to make up for the lack luster hurricane season.
Quoting 303. ncstorm:


the scientists sound real confuse..
Whoa... the comment took off without me!

I think there's a lot of this going on in the background of any scientific "discovery"; people throw hypotheses around and try them out based on the evidence until they find something that fits what they are observing.

It seems to me it's the pundits and the blogging public who act as though things are written in stone. Even Doc's comment today about the tornado event is not taken as said; somebody's going to ignore the "we don't know anything for sure yet" part and go off with the "fact" that global warming causes more November events.... even though he said that it is a possibility.
Quoting 319. washingtonian115:
But if it's a modoki el nino it could get interesting.
Glad to see you jumping back and forth annoyingly. Did you find the cause of your headache? The correct term for this year is El Nonyo.Do you speak pidgeon?
Quoting 312. KoritheMan:
Another blog update on Melissa. yawn
King Diamond wrote a song about Melissa. That ought to keep you up and not yawning. I remember that album scared the heck out of me. Great singer. I think Pavaratti complimented him as being better than himself in scale. It almost looked like something was trying to form south of Melissa as it was just a northern parasite at 6:00
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB06-2013
5:30 AM IST November 20 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Alert for southern Andhra Pradesh and adjoining northern Tamil Nadu coasts

At 0:00 AM UTC, the deep depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved further westward and now lays center near 15.0N 84.0E, about 460 km east northeast of Chennai, 430 km east of Kavali, 330 km east southeast of Machilipatnam, and 310 km south southeast of Vishakhapatnam.

The system would further intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 6 hours and further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It would move west northwestwards for some time, then west southwestward and cross south Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coast between Chennai and Ongole, close to Kavali at around Thursday night.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 15.2N 83.0E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 15.0N 82.0E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 14.7N 79.5E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 14.5N 77.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
Quoting 323. BahaHurican:
Whoa... the comment took off without me!

I think there's a lot of this going on in the background of any scientific "discovery"; people throw hypotheses around and try them out based on the evidence until they find something that fits what they are observing.

It seems to me it's the pundits and the blogging public who act as though things are written in stone. Even Doc's comment today about the tornado event is not taken as said; somebody's going to ignore the "we don't know anything for sure yet" part and go off with the "fact" that global warming causes more November events.... even though he said that it is a possibility.
I am so sorry I invented this thing. Please forgive me. I was 8 years old you know. It was still just a fledgling theory. I told a guy that owned several oil wells in Texas about it and I realized it was stupid after reading more books. The idea was stolen from me anyways. They turned it into a plan to make money. I never got a dime. Of all the important things I forget, I remember bad memories like a crystal clear picture.


expect a name at the next advisory.
Whats the estimated pressure in Bob, HadesGodWyvern?

BOB is Bay of Bengal. I'm slow sometimes.
Quoting 329. BaltimoreBrian:
Whats the estimated pressure in Bob, HadesGodWyvern?


they haven't released a RSMC advisory message that has all winds or pressure readings. The last statement was 12:00 PM UTC.

Edit: there is a TCAC message that has it as 1002 hPa.
So 2015 may be the year when the Atlantic Basin wakes up very angry and cranky from her slumber, lol??
Quoting 324. Pallis:
Glad to see you jumping back and forth annoyingly. Did you find the cause of your headache? The correct term for this year is El Nonyo.Do you speak pidgeon?


As long as there isn't cooling in the BOB, then we get an El Pendejo... And that is a real pain.
Apparently it does snow in Florida...

Link
It is so nice to get a good soaking in Northern Cal.
Quoting 332. Dakster:


As long as there isn't cooling in the BOB, then we get an El Pendejo... And that is a real pain.
Good night Dak, and make sure to tell everyone baday and good morning, for me in Mayaimi.
Good night Pallis...
Quoting 319. washingtonian115:
But if it's a modoki el nino it could get interesting.


The last two Modiki El Nino's have barraged me with hurricanes (2002 and 2004). I have high hopes for 2014. :P
Quoting 337. KoritheMan:


The last two Modiki El Nino's have barraged me with hurricanes (2002 and 2004). I have high hopes for 2014. :P
Might be like 2004 and 2015 might be like 05.Anyways I hate el Niño it almost always bring dry conditions to the north coast of Honduras.
Quoting 338. allancalderini:
Might be like 2004 and 2015 might be like 05.Anyways I hate el Niño it almost always bring dry conditions to the north coast of Honduras.


Only thing good about El Nino is increased cold/snowfall for Louisiana. And you're in Honduras, so that's definitely not a benefit for you. :P
GFS has had this now 3 runs in a row, fun fun fun

Quoting 338. allancalderini:
Might be like 2004 and 2015 might be like 05.Anyways I hate el Niño it almost always bring dry conditions to the north coast of Honduras.


El Nino also brings typically drier winter in Hawaii.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
GFS has had this now 3 runs in a row, fun fun fun


Wait a minute...I recognize that model. The GFS has had a low parked over the Gulf and headed for my house every weekend since June. Now I understand. They have the same lows but just shift them around at random, so people will think that's a real model working. I'll bet the new supercomputer was "requisitioned" to help with the Obamacare site. :-)
Quoting kabloie:
It is so nice to get a good soaking in Northern Cal.

Indeed. I lived in northern California for almost 30 years and really looked forward to the first good rain after going months without having a drop. Soon, everything will green up, and you'll have the northern California version of winter that looks like spring. This is about the only thing I miss from California.
Quoting 337. KoritheMan:


The last two Modiki El Nino's have barraged me with hurricanes (2002 and 2004). I have high hopes for 2014. :P


Well, that lead to 2005 La Puta in South Florida... Not looking forward to another one of those.
Quoting Dakster:
Apparently it does snow in Florida...

Link

Just take a walk through South Beach. You can get high from just snorting the sand...or so I'm told. :-)
Quoting Dakster:


Well, that lead to 2005 La Puta in South Florida... Not looking forward to another one of those.

Tsk, tsk. Good thing there are no Spanish speaking mods around. :-)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


...sigh...

I didn't explicitly say so but yesterday I thought Melissa would be a hurricane by 5 p.m. today. Blah. 2013 strikes again!

Getting...so...slow...at NHC. Must...keep...eyes...open...in case...Melissa...undergoes RI...When will...this all...end? Going...to...kill myself...soon.
Quoting 348. sar2401:

Getting...so...slow...at NHC. Must...keep...eyes...open...in case...Melissa...undergoes RI...When will...this all...end? Going...to...kill myself...soon.


Not allowed to kill yourself before you get 6,666 comments. Go. ;)
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Check out some of these crazy temperature gradients being thrown out there by the SREF members for the late week front. Some of them are pretty eye opening!


For this Friday? In Alabama? Nope, don't think so. Maybe we'll get a little chilly by Sunday night and Monday but we'll still get into the 60's.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Not allowed to kill yourself before you get 6,666 comments. Go. ;)

Good heavens! I just noticed my post count. I hate things like this. It's like, if you're in a building that doesn't have a 13th floor, are you really on the 13th floor when you're on the 14th floor? Or did someone pull a fast one and switch the 13th with the 12th? Just one more thing for me to worry about now. :-)
Quoting 346. sar2401:

Just take a walk through South Beach. You can get high from just snorting the sand...or so I'm told. :-)


Just breathing the air...
Quoting 334. kabloie:
It is so nice to get a good soaking in Northern Cal.
We can use some down here in So Cal now!
Well, I see everyone but Brian has gone of to bed, you wimps, even with a weakening subtropical storm that, even with icebergs in the water, may somehow move fast enough and have enough non-tropical forcing to transition into a tropical storm...for an hour. Y'all are going to miss it, just because you want to go to sleep. Well, not me, this will be one of the big events of the 2013 season.

On second thought, maybe I'll go to sleep also. See you in the morning. :-)
Good night...
Looks like it's just me and you Brian. And maybe Kori if he's still on.
I guess I'm chopped liver then...
Quoting 354. sar2401:
Well, I see everyone but Brian has gone of to bed, you wimps, even with a weakening subtropical storm that, even with icebergs in the water, may somehow move fast enough and have enough non-tropical forcing to transition into a tropical storm...for an hour. Y'all are going to miss it, just because you want to go to sleep. Well, not me, this will be one of the big events of the 2013 season.

On second thought, maybe I'll go to sleep also. See you in the morning. :-)


nope... its dead
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
CYCLONIC STORM HELEN (BOB06-2013)
8:30 AM IST November 20 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Warning for southern Andhra Pradesh and adjoining northern Tamil Nadu coasts: Orange Message

At 3:00 AM UTC, the deep depression over west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary for the past 3 hours, intensified into a cyclonic storm and now lays center near 15.0N 84.0E, about 460 km east northeast of Chennai, 430 km east of Kavali, 330 km east southeast of Machilipatnam, and 310 south southeast of Vishakhapatnam.

The system would further intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It would move west northwestwards for some time, then west southwestward and cross south Andhra Pradesh coast between Sriharikota and Ongole, close to Kavali around Thursday night.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
9 HRS: 15.2N 83.0E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 15.0N 82.0E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 14.N 79.5E - 45-50 (Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS: 14.5N 77.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
1:54 PM WST November 20 2013
=======================================

A trough lies across waters south of the Indonesian Archipelago. A developing low near 10S 113E is expected to move east-southeast over the next few days. Conditions are becoming more favorable as the system moves over warmer 29C ocean waters.

Even if the system doesn't develop into a tropical cyclone, a period of strong to possibly gale force winds, locally higher seas and squally showers could impact Browse Basin and Kimberley coast on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================
Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Low
Saturday: Low
450mm in 2 hours is not true. The most was 467mm in 24 hours at Orgosolo,Nuoro province.
AL, 14, 2013112006, , BEST, 0, 342N, 514W, 45, 985, SS, 34, NEQ, 120, 180, 160, 120, 1008, 400, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M,
At the end of this forecast for me it says "possible sleet in the morning." Yes, please.



Good night WU.

Quoting 345. Dakster:


Well, that lead to 2005 La Puta in South Florida... Not looking forward to another one of those.
What if we keep the concentration toward the Gulf, like in 2008? Would that work for you?
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013

...MELISSA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 50.2W
ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013

A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER OF MELISSA SINCE ABOUT 0400 UTC. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT MELISSA COULD BE NEARING THE EXPECTED TRANSITION FROM A
SUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL STORM. NONETHELESS...THE STRENGTH OF THE
CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED...BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND REMAIN IN AT LEAST MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THEREFORE...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWING THE
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 20C.

MELISSA IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/20. A CONTINUED FAST NORTHEASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE MELISSA REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. DISSIPATION IS NOW
PREDICTED TO OCCUR IN 4 DAYS...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 34.8N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 36.8N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 39.3N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 41.4N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0600Z 43.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/0600Z 45.0N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONIC STORM HELEN (BOB06-2013)
11:30 AM IST November 20 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Warning for southern Andhra Pradesh and adjoining northern Tamil Nadu coasts: Orange Message

At 6:00 AM UTC, the cyclonic storm over west central Bay of Bengal moved slightly west northwestward during the past 6 hours and now lays center near 15.2N 84.0E, about 470 km east northeast of Chennai, 430 km east of Kavali, 320 km east southeast of Machilipatnam, and 290 km south southeast of Vishakhapatnam.

The system would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours. It would move west northwestward for some time, then west southwestward.. crossing southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Sriharikota and Ongole, close to Kavali around Thursday night.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.5. Associated broken low/medium cloud embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 13.5N 18.0N and 82.0E to 86.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C Convective banding is more pronounced in northern sector of the system. Convection near the center has organized and consolidated further during past 12 hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center. The central pressure of TC HELEN is 1000 hPa.

The system is being monitored by DWR Machilipatnam, Visakhapatnam and Chennai. According to these radars, the system is located near 15.2N 84.0E at 0600 UTC. The buoy observations near 13.5N and 84.0E show mean sea level pressure of 1007.3 hPa and winds of 16 knots

The cyclonic storm HELEN lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which runs along 17.0N. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity are favorable for intensification and they have increased during past 12 hours. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is low to moderate (5-15 knots).

Divergence in numerical weather prediction models guidance continues with respect to landfall point and time, as the track forecast varies from west southwest to northwest direction. With respect to intensification, there is more consensus suggesting slow intensification or no intensification. Current forecast is based on consensus numerical weather prediction and synoptic analysis.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 15.4N 83.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 15.0N 82.0E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 14.7N 79.5E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 14.5N 77.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
Good morning folks.
Something additional to the catastrophic rainfall in Sardinia two days ago: Yesterday a metereological explanation was published by Consorzio Lamma, an institute for metereolocial research and forecast especially for Tuscany. Of course the explanation is in Italian language. I've tried to translate it into English, so blame it on me [and a bit on google translator as well, lol] if there is something strange or nonsensical in this text:

Flood event in Sardinia

The flood event that has shocked Sardinia yesterday was not caused by an abnormal weather configuration, but by excessive energy at disposal of a low pressure system.



The satellite photo shows the two main thunderstorm systems, one activated inland, the other one offshore. Both are related to the convergence between Scirocco and Libeccio but are distinguished by different types of primers.

The vortex, in fact, was not yet comparable to a Tropical Like System (TLC), but rather to a normal cyclogenesis in the Mediterranean. In the past, depressions much more profound and intense have often been observed, but without the same catastrophic effects.

Then, why such large quantities of rain did occur?
We've mentioned the main reason at the beginning, namely the excessive heat which was available for the cyclogenesis. In fact, the perturbation passed over a sea well warmer than normal, and this has provided additional energy to the connected systems of thunderstorms.

To be more specific: In the afternoon of November 18, we have witnessed the convergence of current hot and humid Scirocco caused by a low between Algeria and Tunisia, and cooler westerly winds connected to a vortex in the Baleares. This evoked an extensive line of self-refreshing thunderstorms which affected Sardinia for several hours; the phenomenon was enhanced not only by the excess of latent heat supplied from the sea, but as well by the complex topography of the island. The mountains, in fact, often act as "trigger" for convective systems, as they force the air mass to rise and, therefore, to condense. Therefore, in addition to the main thunderstorms, numerous secondary cells had been active that have helped to make the system even more intense. Currently (at 16 UTC [Nov 19]), the cyclogenesis moves over Sardinia, and should reach the coast of Lazio [Italy] in the evening, favoring gradual improvement in the weather conditions on the Island.
It is not excluded that the depression evolves into a fully TLC [Tropical Like System].


----------------------

Concerning the last sentence in the text above about the possible transition into a fully Tropical Like System: Someone else smarter than me should have a look whether this has panned out or not.

Here is a recent sat pic of the landfalling COC in Croatia this morning:





Sounding Nov 20, 00Z, I think in the landfall area and near the time the system went onshore in Lazio/Italy.
-----------------------------

Situation in Sardinia is very dire. Death toll still isn't confirmed as far as I can see. It varies between 16 to 18 in the news [edit: Most recent news in Italy now say: 16, as obviously some persons were found alive; one person is still missing]. Mainland Italy was hit by torrential rains yesterday and during the night, but I spare you the details (and I have to move on to different tasks now, lol).

Cyclone Cleopatra traumatises people of Sardinia
BBC, 19 November 2013 Last updated at 22:13 GMT
By Matthew Price BBC News, Sardinia




Calabria/Southern Italy


High waters in Venice/Italy. Caption (in Italian) on youtube: Acqua Alta [high waters] in Venice on 19 nov.2013. When the streets (calli) and places become canals and one has to walk with rubber boots, ... we must go into one of the last old libraries, the most original one: the "Libreria Acqua Alta" in Calle Longa SMFarmosa to n 5176. Visit in the library starts at 0:50 (Uuuh!).
92W & 90S are new. 04B is now Helen & our best looking storm out there at the moment.

Recent Helen MODIS..


GFS is forecasting more for winds than cmc. GFS..
Nice Aqua of Melissa late yesterday..




You all will be glad you went to bed. This is what is looks like now..

90S updated..

A trough lies across waters south of the Indonesian Archipelago. At 2pm WST a low was situated near 11.0S 113.0E. This low is expected to move steadily east southeast over the next few days, and pass north of the Kimberley coast over the weekend. This low has shown some development over the last 24 hours and its structure and much of its thunderstorm activity has been maintained during the less favorable daylight hours. Conditions are moderately favorable for development over the next few days.

Even if the system does not develop into a tropical cyclone, a period of strong to possibly gale force winds, locally higher seas and squally showers is likely as the system moves through waters just north of the Kimberley.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================
Thursday: Low
Friday: Moderate
Saturday: Moderate
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's a slightly chilly morning of 44, wind chill of 41, so not bad. Good chance of rain tomorrow and even more so on Friday.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Crawfish Breakfast Enchiladas with and without cheese, regular or whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, crepes filled with cream cheese and strawberries, topped with whipped cream, egg and sausage casserole, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Canadian bacon, sausage links, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
This is a 60mph tropical cyclone.

Yup, seems right IMD.. as usual.
Quoting 341. VAbeachhurricanes:
And snow for MD !
Quoting 341. VAbeachhurricanes:


Cool! look at my forecast for Tuesday night and Wednesday!

Tuesday Night
chance snow
Overcast with a chance of snow. Low of 28F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 50% with accumulations up to 2 in. possible.

Wednesday
chance snow
Overcast with a chance of snow. High of 39F with a windchill as low as 25F. Winds from the North at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70% with accumulations up to 2 in. possible.
Quoting 240. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh trust me Cody, it has been claimed by many on here that we would see an increase in intense hurricanes due to a warming climate. Just have to go back to past blogs to see for yourself.


That is an EVENTUAL result of climate change. By the end of this century, hurricanes in the Atlantic are predicted to be fewer in number but more intense. However this is still an area of much research since hurricanes are relatively small scale features when compared to the grid resolutions climate models are currently run at.
This is probably as close as Melissa will get to tropical.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Bring it on! El-Nino seems like it wants to make an appearance this Winter.





Prob not gonna happen Scotty boy, but hey one can only dream :-)
Quoting 364. KoritheMan:

What if we keep the concentration toward the Gulf, like in 2008? Would that work for you?


As long as Florida isn't involved. Go for it.

Although I am sure that some other people here don't want their area or state hit either.
The week of Thanksgiving is going to be a below average week in Temps according to most forecasts and the CPC.

Quoting 323. BahaHurican:
I think there's a lot of this going on in the background of any scientific "discovery"; people throw hypotheses around and try them out based on the evidence until they find something that fits what they are observing.
You've just outlined part of the scientific process: observations are made; hypotheses are tried; most are discarded; and one is finally left standing. Of course, if it stopped there, it wouldn't be nearly enough; after all, that's how gods and religions are created. ;-)
Quoting 323. BahaHurican:
It seems to me it's the pundits and the blogging public who act as though things are written in stone. Even Doc's comment today about the tornado event is not taken as said; somebody's going to ignore the "we don't know anything for sure yet" part and go off with the "fact" that global warming causes more November events.... even though he said that it is a possibility.
I don't believe anyone credible has or will make the statement that "global warming causes more November events". What we have seen is what we see after every single extreme weather event these days, no matter how severe or rare or mathematically unusual it is: a group of people--ususally the same ones--preemptively announcing that the changing climate had absolutely nothing to do with that event, and even discussing that possibility is wrong. And then you'll often see a handful of others coming along and explaining that attribution is sometimes a tricky and lengthy process, scientific uncertainty is part of that process, and that prematurely claiming "weather event X was not influenced by global warming" is every bit as baseless as claiming "weather event x was caused by global warming."
Quoting 378. Torito:
This is probably as close as Melissa will get to tropical.

The ATCF says Melissa is fully tropical at the moment:

AL, 14, 2013112012, , BEST, 0, 351N, 490W, 50, 988, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 30, 0, 0, 1008, 400, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M,

Quoting 380. Dakster:


As long as Florida isn't involved. Go for it.

Although I am sure that some other people here don't want their area or state hit either.
lol, I know.

Quoting 383. Neapolitan:
The ATCF says Melissa is fully tropical at the moment:

AL, 14, 2013112012, , BEST, 0, 351N, 490W, 50, 988, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 30, 0, 0, 1008, 400, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M,
For all of two advisories? :)
I don't believe anyone credible has or will make the statement that "global warming causes more November events".

Key word being "credible"
But all the usual media outlets with a known bias will lean that way. Some subtle, some not quite so.
Quoting 385. KoritheMan:

For all of two advisories? :)


SHIPS has been saying it for 2 DAYS now. xD


Got 2.4 inches of rain from this last night lol

No need to have heavy "red" convection on IR to get heavy rain...
Melissa is going to disturb Europe like most of the storms we had in the ATL this year...


Quoting 389. Torito:
Melissa is going to disturb Europe like most of the storms we had in the ATL this year...

More like the last several years.
SHF5 has been right for most of the year, especially with Karen, however, I think it is a little off at the end of the run this time..... winds 2-3MPH under hurricane force do not seem likely for this system.



This is what I mean, by it nailing Karen.


Quoting 392. Torito:
SHF5 has been right for most of the year, especially with Karen, however, I think it is a little off at the end of the run this time..... winds 2-3MPH under hurricane force do not seem likely for this system.

Not without any baroclinic forcing, no.
177 hours out: A low pressure system comes out of the GOM, goes through the lower states (SC, GA) and then heads up the east coast as a giant rain storm.


Nor'easter? You decide.

Quoting 391. KoritheMan:

More like the last several years.


More like always
Quoting 395. FunnelVortex:


More like always


Pretty bold statement since we can't go back much more than a few hundred years at best. And going back more than 60-70 means we had to rely on ship reports.

Of course I am playing with ya. Happy Wednesday.
Melissa looking cute now, but she is nearing the end of her life.



Once this storm dissipates, the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season is unofficially over.
Quoting 388. CaribBoy:


Got 2.4 inches of rain from this last night lol

No need to have heavy "red" convection on IR to get heavy rain...


Where were you for the past few weeks, Cariboy?
Quoting 382. Neapolitan:
You've just outlined part of the scientific process: observations are made; hypotheses are tried; most are discarded; and one is finally left standing. Of course, if it stopped there, it wouldn't be nearly enough; after all, that's how gods and religions are created. ;-)I don't believe anyone credible has or will make the statement that "global warming causes more November events". What we have seen is what we see after every single extreme weather event these days, no matter how severe or rare or mathematically unusual it is: a group of people--ususally the same ones--preemptively announcing that the changing climate had absolutely nothing to do with that event, and even discussing that possibility is wrong. And then you'll often see a handful of others coming along and explaining that attribution is sometimes a tricky and lengthy process, scientific uncertainty is part of that process, and that prematurely claiming "weather event X was not influenced by global warming" is every bit as baseless as claiming "weather event x was caused by global warming."
You left out the people that say it is just weather that goes through cycles,and it has been that way all my life. Nothing new to see here.
Have fun with that! i will be in the 80's for the next 4 days! i would love to see 60's for my High soon!
Link
Quoting 399. FunnelVortex:
My first inch of snow is on the way
402. VR46L
Imagery of the Trimm of Mel



Quoting 398. FunnelVortex:


Where were you for the past few weeks, Cariboy?


I was there from time to time, but I didn't comment on the blog because the weather has been desperately boring... which is pretty typical for 2013 lol.

I was VERY VERY surprised that we got so much rainfall last night from "isolated" shallow cells. The year remains drier than normal though... but maybe more surprises are coming for the rest of november and december, who knows :-)

Subtropical Storm Melissa is REALLY LOOKING TROPICAL this morning! She is now swirling over cooler water, but looking impressive on the VIS satellite @ the moment .....
The low/cold front that moved over the UK has brought some snow to parts of the UK, with more expected today. It's mainly to the higher ground of Scotland/Wales/Northern Ireland/Northern England. Although there could be some over some of the hills here in the south east this evening.

First snow falls affect high roads in Wales

Cold weather spreads south after snow in Scotland


Scotland weather: Snow hits north east

UK Weather: Follow live updates as snow hits Britain and temperatures dramatically drop


Snow showers herald cold snap for Northern Ireland



I don't like the swells... but it is frequent during the winter months. SST's are definitely cooling... but lol I'm still hopping for a LANINA next spring/summer xDDD
The Forecast for Thanksgiving!!!!!!:) for WPB!!!!!!!:)
Upper 60's to low 70's for Thanksgiving day! and 50's at night!!:)
Quoting 408. SFLWeatherman:
The Forecast for Thanksgiving!!!!!!:) for WPB!!!!!!!:)
Upper 60's to low 70's for Thanksgiving day! and 50's at night!!:)


Just don't BBQ inside... Those are turn the heat on temps. for us Floridians.
411. SLU
Quoting 388. CaribBoy:


Got 2.4 inches of rain from this last night lol

No need to have heavy "red" convection on IR to get heavy rain...


I'm glad you got your fix last night. Might be the last 2.4 inches for the next 7 months :).
Quoting 411. SLU:


I'm glad you got your fix last night. Might be the last 2.4 inches for the next 7 months :).


Wait. I thought this was a weather blog... What are we talking about?
Quoting 397. FunnelVortex:
Melissa looking cute now, but she is nearing the end of her life.



Once this storm dissipates, the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season is unofficially over.




it never really started
Quoting 394. Torito:
177 hours out: A low pressure system comes out of the GOM, goes through the lower states (SC, GA) and then heads up the east coast as a giant rain storm.


Nor'easter? You decide.

If this was only December...
Quoting 411. SLU:


I'm glad you got your fix last night. Might be the last 2.4 inches for the next 7 months :).


LOL there's a good chance, unfortunately. At least those rains will keep the island 'green' a little longer. It's actually rare to see the vegetation turning brown in december... OH MY I hate to see my island brown, this is ugly.
High of 38 forecast for Sunday!.Finally winter!
Quoting 400. Pallis:
You left out the people that say it is just weather that goes through cycles,and it has been that way all my life. Nothing new to see here.
That's the great thing about America: people can hold any opinion they wish no matter how wrong that opinion is.
Quoting 414. washingtonian115:
If this was only December...



Nor'easter can happen any time from oct too may
Quoting 418. Tazmanian:



Nor'easter can happen any time from oct too may
But when it happens December-February than their is a chance of snow.
Thanksgiving Day..a lot of snow for the NE and midatlantic

unfortunately..us southerners get the rain on thanksgiving



Quoting 417. Neapolitan:
That's the great thing about America: people can hold any opinion they wish no matter how wrong that opinion is.


You opinion is certainly right. Oh, I mean wrong.
Quoting 422. luvtogolf:


You opinion is certainly right. Oh, I mean wrong.


Morning luvtogolf.. :)
Was that a wedge or a nine iron?
Many see situation that way (Re:post417)..
Quoting 423. pcola57:


Morning luvtogolf.. :)
Was that a wedge or a nine iron?
Many see situation that way..


Sweeping hook for a tap in.
Quoting 420. ncstorm:
Thanksgiving Day..a lot of snow for the NE and midatlantic

we got to wait and see

iam thinking there may be a more westward bias waiting on other runs could track up along eastern side of the spine just on shore exit out over se Maine
Quoting 419. washingtonian115:
But when it happens December-February than their is a chance of snow.


Morning Washi..
I hope you get all the snow this season that you want..
By the way..
Your avatar is soo happy..
Much better than..
Well..
Me likey.. :)
Quoting 419. washingtonian115:
But when it happens December-February then their is a chance of snow.
and lots of it epic you could say
Nor'easter still there in the latest GFS run.

180 hours out:



996MB system, compared to 1000MB in the last run.
Melissa:

...MELISSA ACQUIRES TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 47.7W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MELISSA HAS MADE A TRANSITION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...AND AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST.
MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS...BUT MELISSA SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA TODAY...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM Melissa has finally made the transition from sub-tropical to fully tropical. After losing a little steam last night, the weakened storm picked up some lost strength. This morning, the winds increased a little, and are once again up to 60 MPH. On the VIS satellite, looking more impressive, as it races ENE @ 30MPH!

Are the Atlantic waters in Melissa's path too cold to support anymore strengthening? Will its fast forward motion keep it going longer?
Classification makes sense.... It looked about as tropical as it can possibly get at that north of the equator a few hours ago.
..a quick moment o Silence for my DELL OPTIPLEX GX-620

It is in it's Hard Drive Tonal death throes, sputtering to the left of the other tower.

Which is sad now.

: (
Quoting 431. Stormwatch247:
TROPICAL STORM Melissa has finally made the transition from sub-tropical to fully tropical. After losing a little steam last night, the weakened storm picked up some lost strength. This morning, the winds increased a little, and are once again up to 60 MPH. On the VIS satellite, looking more impressive, as it races ENE @ 30MPH!

Are the waters up there too cool to support anymore strengthening?




Yea, it is getting cold fast up there.

Have a look at this "perfect looking" chart.

Quoting 433. Patrap:
..a quick moment o Silence for my DELL OPTIPLEX GX-620

It is in it's Hard Drive Tonal death throes, sputtering to the left of the other tower.

Which is sad now.

: (
did ya save any files last time that happen everything was on the drive I lost it all start fresh
Quoting 435. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
did ya save any files last time that happen everything was on the drive I lost it all start fresh



Heh. My ACER ASPIRE blew up about 8 months after I got it, hard drive failure. Got it fixed just for it to break 2 weeks later. Got it fixed again. BOOM. One more time. BOOM. Now it is just sitting in the house waiting to go in the trash. 2 weeks between every BOOM.
Newly updated intensity forecast with the correct heading (for once).

Chance of snow in the forecast for me, 6 days out.

Link
Quoting 435. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
did ya save any files last time that happen everything was on the drive I lost it all start fresh


I back up everything every 24 hours to a outside secure server.

Location Classified.

: )
HEHE.... RAL screwed up the automated intensity forecast for tropical cyclone Helen.

At 0600 UTC, 20 November 2013, CYCLONE TYPE UNKNOWN (IO04) was located in the Bay of Bengal basin at 15.4°N and 84.2°E. The current intensity was -999 kt and the center was moving at -999 kt at a bearing of -999 degrees. The minimum central pressure was -999 mb.
Quoting 440. Skyepony:
NOAA Dvorak has Melissa's CI 2.5 & 991mb.


You look at that too? I thought I was the only one... xD
Melissa
Quoting 442. Torito:


You look at that too? I thought I was the only one... xD

Obsessively~ for most the storms..lol.
Quoting 444. Skyepony:

Obsessively~ for most the storms..lol.



Very frequent updates are nice, eh? Just watch out, it usually overestimates cat 5 systems..... (sub 860MB for haiyan.)
At least RAL got Melissa right.

At 1200 UTC, 20 November 2013, TROPICAL STORM MELISSA (AL14) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 35.1°N and 49°W. The current intensity was 50 kt and the center was moving at 20 kt at a bearing of 60 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb.
Ships intensity forecast for Melissa....

Link

Shows shear approaching 30kt in the near term..... Almost 60kt in the long term... RIP MELISSA if this plays out.
MELISSA HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TRANSITION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...THE CLOUD
PATTERN EXHIBITS CURVED BANDS WITH UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MELISSA HAS WEAKENED.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ALSO CHANGED FROM
SUBTROPICAL TO TROPICAL STATUS AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS. MELISSA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SHEAR. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT MELISSA SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

THE STORM IS NOW ACCELERATING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060 DEGREES AT 26
KNOTS. THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH AND THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP MELISSA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NHC FOREAST FOLLOWS THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH
IN FACT IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 35.6N 47.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 37.6N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 40.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 41.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/1200Z 42.5N 24.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/1200Z 42.0N 18.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Quoting 433. Patrap:
..a quick moment o Silence for my DELL OPTIPLEX GX-620

It is in it's Hard Drive Tonal death throes, sputtering to the left of the other tower.

Which is sad now.

: (


Ah, I know your pain, having recently experienced a similar loss just recently . . .
Snow Storm in China on Wednesday, 20 November, 2013 at 14:56 (02:56 PM) UTC.
Description
Over 50,000 people were mobilized Tuesday to clear snow in Harbin, capital of northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, after the worst snowstorm in 50 years hit the city for 60 hours. Average daily snowfall in the city proper reached 11.4 mm starting on Saturday, the highest level recorded since 1961 when consecutive weather recording began in the city, according to the city's weather station. Residents, police and volunteers helped to clear snow and ice on the streets, and special snow clearing machines and vehicles were also mobilized, according to the city government. Education authorities requested that all kindergartens, primary and high schools in the urban area close on Monday and Tuesday, as the accumulated snow on streets exceeded 10 cm in some areas. The National Meteorological Center on Tuesday issued a blue alert for snowstorms, forecasting continuous snow in the eastern part of Heilongjiang for the next 24 hours. Snowfall is expected to reach 10 to 14 mm by 8 a.m. Wednesday morning.
Lets bring out the hurricane that never died for good measures.... Hurricane faith of 1966.






1966 radar looks awesome. :)
Quoting 451. Skyepony:
Snow Storm in China on Wednesday, 20 November, 2013 at 14:56 (02:56 PM) UTC.
Description
Over 50,000 people were mobilized Tuesday to clear snow in Harbin, capital of northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, after the worst snowstorm in 50 years hit the city for 60 hours. Average daily snowfall in the city proper reached 11.4 mm starting on Saturday, the highest level recorded since 1961 when consecutive weather recording began in the city, according to the city's weather station. Residents, police and volunteers helped to clear snow and ice on the streets, and special snow clearing machines and vehicles were also mobilized, according to the city government. Education authorities requested that all kindergartens, primary and high schools in the urban area close on Monday and Tuesday, as the accumulated snow on streets exceeded 10 cm in some areas. The National Meteorological Center on Tuesday issued a blue alert for snowstorms, forecasting continuous snow in the eastern part of Heilongjiang for the next 24 hours. Snowfall is expected to reach 10 to 14 mm by 8 a.m. Wednesday morning.


From this, I get that they normally do not get much snow if they consider 10-14mm a lot. Around here in MD, we have seen 4 ft of snow on the ground before.... Particularly that snowstorm a few years ago that made 7 ft drifts....

But since then, winter here has been a bust.
Quoting 434. Torito:




Yea, it is getting cold fast up there.

Have a look at this "perfect looking" chart.



:) GREAT Chart, Thanks!

Hey, at least there is SOMETHING to watch out there. Watching the FISH storm, sweet Melissa, head out to the cold sea.

It is always interesting to watch the tropics get busy, especially in NOVEMBER. Late-season storms usually follow Melissa's path, but ....

On this day on NOV 20, 1985, powerful Hurricane Kate was entering the Gulf of Mexico, threatening the area from Louisiana to Florida! Was a crazy year for hurricanes hitting along the US Gulf Coast.

Have always enjoyed visiting here to see what everyone else is thinking about the weather, and the tropics! Always Awesome !




Quoting 433. Patrap:
..a quick moment o Silence for my DELL OPTIPLEX GX-620

It is in it's Hard Drive Tonal death throes, sputtering to the left of the other tower.

Which is sad now.

: (
Be strong Pat..and peace be with you..
Quoting 454. Stormwatch247:


:) GREAT Chart, Thanks!

Hey, at least there is SOMETHING to watch out there. Watching the FISH storm, sweet Melissa, head out to the cold sea.

It is always interesting to watch the tropics get busy, especially in NOVEMBER. Late-season storms usually follow Melissa's path, but ....

On this day on NOV 20, 1985, powerful Hurricane Kate was entering the Gulf of Mexico, threatening the area from Louisiana to Florida! Was a crazy year for hurricanes hitting the Gulf Coast.

Have always enjoyed visiting here to see what everyone else is thinking about the weather, and the tropics! Always Awesome !







Yea, nothing like a fish trapped in a giant swirly. ;)

Can't wait for winter this year, I think a big one will show itself for once.
Thanx hydrus..dj

She been round since 08 from the FEMA trailer to today.

I'm thinking a Irish Funeral.

Oh she's my baby, Let me tell you why
Hey, she drives me crazy, She's the apple of my eye
'Cause she is my girl, And she can never do wrong
If I dream too much at night, Somebody please bring me down


Time for me to whip out the winter discussions instead of tropical discussions!

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
422 AM EST WED NOV 20 2013

VALID 12Z WED NOV 20 2013 - 12Z SAT NOV 23 2013

...DAY 1 ...

...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BE SETTLING SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY 1
TIME FRAME AS A SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST AND A WAVY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND
STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SNOW ACROSS
FAVORED TERRAIN OF ID AND SOUTHWEST MT/NORTHWEST WY...WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS ASCENT WHERE IT IS COLD ENOUGH
TO SNOW IS WEAK AND SHORT LIVED.

...CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA...

AN AREA OF PCPN OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROF WILL
BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA RANGE TODAY AS
THE TROF MOVES INLAND. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD INITIALLY BE PRETTY
HIGH BUT SETTLE AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES LOWER. EXPECT SNOW IN
THIS AREA TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

...DAY 2...

...CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA RANGE AND THE WASATCH...
THE SYSTEM WHICH BEGINS TO BRING SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA RANGE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THU
MORNING...WHICH HELPS SPREAD SNOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
WASATCH. THE WASATCH ARE MORE LIKELY THAN THE SURROUNDING AREA
FOR 4 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT IS GENERALLY A SLIGHT
RISK.

A 300 MB WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FCST TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY
AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH CROSS CA...POSSIBLY BECOMING A CLOSED
CIRCULATION BY 00Z FRI. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LOW...UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAXIMA STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA SIERRA INTO THE
NV AND UT GREAT BASIN
AND UT WASATCH. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORTS CONTINUED SNOWS
IN THE CA SIERRA NEVADA.

RETURN LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW TURNS UPSLOPE OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN WY/CO THU AFTN/EVE. A COUPLED UPPER JET PATTERN DEVELOPS
WITH THE REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THE
LOW LEVEL FRONT COMBINES WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA AND UPSLOPE
FLOW TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE SNOW FROM THE CO ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WY/WESTERN NE/NORTHEAST CO.

TENDED TO GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE GFS/UKMET FOR THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WHILE A NON NAM CONSENSUS SEEMED TO WORK BEST IN
TERMS FOR THE AREA TO THE NORTH.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

...DAY 3...

....SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
THE MODELS FCST A CLOSED 700-500 MB LOW TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA. DOWNSTREAM DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER RIDES
THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ AND NORTHERN NM. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINES
WITH DIVERGENCE MAXIMA AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE MDT TO HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE RANGES OF NORTHERN NM TO ADJACENT SOUTHERN CO AND
OUT INTO W TX. THE RISK OF 4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFALL WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WHILE AMOUNTS
SPREADING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER.

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS TEND TO SHOW A QUICK TRANSITION WITHOUT A
LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PCPN...THE ENSEMBLES POINT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH PCPN OCCURRING AT THE TIME IN WHICH THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR UNDERCUTS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO WARRANT
SPOTTY AREAS OF ICING CONCERNS.

MANUAL PROGS PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE ECMWF/UKMET.

459. VR46L
Quoting 452. Torito:
Lets bring out the hurricane that never died for good measures.... Hurricane faith of 1966.






1966 radar looks awesome. :)


Stop it ! It is going to die shortly

Mind you a tropical blast of air would be welcome .... as its a artic air here now .... gusted 55 kts and was without electric for 3 hours this morning !
Quoting 459. VR46L:


Stop it ! It is going to die shortly

Mind you a tropical blast of air would be welcome .... as its a artic air here now .... gusted 55 kts and was without electric for 3 hours this morning !



LOL, 38 degrees here from 30 mph winds last night.
Rain moving into IL.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONIC STORM HELEN (BOB06-2013)
17:30 PM IST November 20 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Warning for southern Andhra Pradesh and adjoining northern Tamil Nadu coasts: Orange Message

At 12:00 PM UTC, the cyclonic storm over west central Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwestward and now lays center near 15.3N 83.9E, about 470 km east northeast of Chennai, 420 km east of Kavali, 310 km east southeast of Machillipatnam, and 280 km south southeast of Vishakhapatnam.

The system would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours. It would move west northwestward slowly for some time, then west southwestward, crossing southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Machillipatnam close to Ongole around Friday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. Associated broken low/medium cloud embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 13.5N to18.5N and 81.5E to 86.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C. Convective banding is more pronounced in northern sector of the system. Convection near the center has organized and consolidated further during past 12 hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is very high around the center. The central pressure of TC HELEN is 998 hPa.

According to DWR, Machilipatnam, the cyclonic storm was located near 15.3N 83.9E at 1200 UTC of November 20th. 2013 the cyclonic storm HELEN lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which runs along 17.0N. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity are favorable for intensification and they have increased during past 12 hours. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is low to moderate (5-15 knots).

Divergence in numerical weather prediction models guidance continues with respect to landfall point and time, as the track forecast varies from west southwest to northwest direction. With respect to intensification, there is more consensus suggesting slow intensification or no intensification. Current forecast is based on consensus numerical weather prediction and synoptic analysis

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 15.6N 83.2E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 15.6N 82.2E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 15.3N 79.3E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
72 HRS: 14.8N 76.6E - Low Pressure Area
Quoting 452. Torito:
Lets bring out the hurricane that never died for good measures.... Hurricane faith of 1966.






1966 radar looks awesome. :)


By no way it wanted to GO FISH when it was in the DEEP TROPICS... :)
464. VR46L
Quoting 460. Torito:



LOL, 38 degrees here from 30 mph winds last night.


Its hit a maximum of 42 here ... but its going to be getting dark within about an hr *sigh* I intensely dislike this season ....
Quoting 463. CaribBoy:


By no way it wanted to GO FISH when it was in the DEEP TROPICS... :)


It was going ice fishing up there for seals, man. ;)

Probably the last T-Wave of the year right here.

467. yoboi
Quoting 464. VR46L:


Its hit a maximum of 42 here ... but its going to be getting dark within about an hr *sigh* I intensely dislike this season ....


what's the min??
Image of the day:

An anticyclone is seen above a extratropical cyclone near Russia.



Anticyclones are high pressure areas, explaining the relatively clear area above the extratropical cyclone.
Quoting 452. Torito:
Lets bring out the hurricane that never died for good measures.... Hurricane faith of 1966.






1966 radar looks awesome. :)

That's actually visible imagery from space rather than a radar image.
470. VR46L
Quoting 467. yoboi:


what's the min??


I honestly didnt check but I guess it was about 38 ...
Quoting 451. Skyepony:
Snow Storm in China on Wednesday, 20 November, 2013 at 14:56 (02:56 PM) UTC.
Description
Over 50,000 people were mobilized Tuesday to clear snow in Harbin, capital of northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, after the worst snowstorm in 50 years hit the city for 60 hours. Average daily snowfall in the city proper reached 11.4 mm starting on Saturday, the highest level recorded since 1961 when consecutive weather recording began in the city, according to the city's weather station. Residents, police and volunteers helped to clear snow and ice on the streets, and special snow clearing machines and vehicles were also mobilized, according to the city government. Education authorities requested that all kindergartens, primary and high schools in the urban area close on Monday and Tuesday, as the accumulated snow on streets exceeded 10 cm in some areas. The National Meteorological Center on Tuesday issued a blue alert for snowstorms, forecasting continuous snow in the eastern part of Heilongjiang for the next 24 hours. Snowfall is expected to reach 10 to 14 mm by 8 a.m. Wednesday morning.


Well, sometimes you wonder. 10 cm = 3.94 inches, and this part of China is in the uttermost northeast, so that they should be used to this amount of snow. Fotos of this event doesn't look like catastrophic amounts of snow either. Of course - if this is accumulating for many days (every day 10cm more), it eventually will be something.
Quoting 469. 1900hurricane:

That's actually visible imagery from space rather than a radar image.


Fine.....


1966 visible imagery looks awesome!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


The Tropical Cyclone forecast model after HELEN..
Quoting 461. Torito:
Rain moving into IL.



That's heading straight for me, in St. Peters, MO. I live directly underneath that downward aiming loop of the Mississippi River just off I-70. Watch the rain fizzle right there as it approaches when it hits the Cone o' Dry I seem to live under. I bet it goes north and south of me, then reforms in the middle again once it's into Illinois. That's the pattern here. Rain has to be very robust to actually hit the ground where I live, or come from a different direction. :)

During the storm the other day, I tried to make a comment right when the blog crashed and burned. We had a lot of wind damage around here that day, but no rain at all. My roof tried to leave under a sunny sky. Didn't though. Whew. :)
I was looking for this information the other day. I happened across it this morning. I wanted to see how dominant the WestPac was in producing strong tropical systems. And this doesn't include the crazy number of storms that occured this year.

The number of Category 4 or 5 hurricanes.(Adapted from Webster et al., 2005.)

Basin, 1975-1989, 1990-2004

East Pacific, 36, 49

West Pacific, 85, 116

North Atlantic, 16, 25

Southwestern Pacific, 10, 22

North Indian, 1, 7

South Indian, 23, 50



Quoting 475. SherwoodSpirit:


That's heading straight for me, in St. Peters, MO. I live directly underneath that downward aiming loop of the Mississippi River just off I-70. Watch the rain fizzle right there as it approaches when it hits the Cone o' Dry I seem to live under. I bet it goes north and south of me, then reforms in the middle again once it's into Illinois. That's the pattern here. Rain has to be very robust to actually hit the ground where I live, or come from a different direction. :)

During the storm the other day, I tried to make a comment right when the blog crashed and burned. We had a lot of wind damage around here that day, but no rain at all. My roof tried to leave under a sunny sky. Didn't though. Whew. :)


I hope you are not a farmer, that sounds dreadful.
Quoting 471. barbamz:


Well, sometimes you wonder. 10 cm = 3.94 inches, and this part of China is in the uttermost northeast, so that they should be used to this amount of snow. Fotos of this event doesn't look like catastrophic amounts of snow either. Of course - if this is accumulating for many days (every day 10cm more), it eventually will be something.


I suspected the amounts or something weren't right when I posted it. It wasn't marked as catastrophic or anything from a 0-5 it was a 0.

Here's more..it's killed four. By the video those were daily averages so it's been adding up. Schools closed but yeah, not buried.

Sea ice north of there is good this year. They may be in for a winter.
I virtually never post, because I arguably know less than any blogger on this site about how weather operates. But I've seen a lot of it, and six years on the north coast of the Dominican Republic has been interesting, from hurricanes to earthquakes. It would seem that all the potential hurricane systems crossing the Atlantic have hooked out into the Atlantic instead of taking their usual path across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba. This is the first year I've seen that, and wouldn't mind if someone could tell me why. In consequence, there has been a lot of heat in the ocean around here, and we've had thunderstorms 5 out of 7 nights like clockwork. I take pics of them. E.g., this one, the shot taken with a N800 from my roof deck.