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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Midget Marco makes landfall

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:36 PM GMT on October 07, 2008

Tropical Storm Marco is making landfall along the Mexican Gulf of Mexico coast northwest of Veracruz. We really don't know how strong this storm is, because these so-called "midget" tropical cyclones are very difficult to classify correctly via satellite estimates. The only way to get an accurate idea of the strength of Marco is to fly a Hurricane Hunter airplane into the storm, and there has been only one flight into Marco (yesterday afternoon's flight). No further missions are planned.


Figure 1. Comparison of the sizes of Hurricane Ike and Tropical Storm Marco. Ike image was taken on September 11, 2008 (image credit: NASA. The Marco image was taken at 5 pm EDT October 6.

Midget tropical cyclones are rare in the Atlantic, but are fairly common the Western Pacific, where the presence of the monsoon trough often acts to spin up tiny tropical cyclones. Although small in stature, midget tropical cyclones are capable of intensifying into powerful hurricanes capable of causing severe damage. Tropical Cyclone Tracy, which hit Darwin, Australia on Christmas Day in 1974, was a midget tropical cyclone as small as Marco, but packed Category 4 winds. The storm killed 71 people and caused over $5 billion in damage.

Data yesterday afternoon from the Hurricane Hunters suggested that Marco's eye was just 3 miles across. Tropical storm force winds extended outward only ten miles from the center. Tropical storms this small are subject to sudden and unpredictable changes in intensity, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Marco with winds anywhere between 40 mph and 80 mph at landfall. The region affected will be just 10-20 miles across, and we don't need to worry about any significant storm surge with this storm! According to the latest analysis by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) for Marco is as low as you'll see for a tropical storm: zero. They rate Marco's potential surge damage as a 0.3 on a scale of 1 to 6. For comparison, Ike and Katrina rated a 5.1 shortly before they made landfall. Comparing Marco to Ike (Figure 1), we can see that Ike was a Texas-sized storm that filled the entire Gulf of Mexico. Ike's tropical storm-force winds extended out up to 275 miles from the center at landfall. Marco is a Rhode Island-sized storm. At Marco's peak size, tropical storm-force winds covered an area of about 1,158 nm, which is 1/75 as big as Ike's.


Figure 2. Current satellite image Marco.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A small circulation near 11N, 37W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is kicking up some isolated heavy thunderstorms. The region is under about 20-30 knots of wind shear. The GFS and UKMET models continue to predict that a tropical depression could spin up in this region by Friday, and wind shear is predicted to drop to a level that might allow that to happen.

We will also need to watch the Western Caribbean for possible development late this week.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts
Here's today's update on the Hurricane Ike relief effort started by wunderground members Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie:

The push to continue to keep supplies rolling to the Gulf Coast continues. This morning we shipped out three sets of packages with medical supplies and some cleaning supplies. The first set of two boxes went to the Bridge City Fire Department. It contained burn kits, bandages, first aid kits, Neosoprin, an air splint and more. The second set of boxes went to Eagle Heights Fellowship in Baytown. This is a shelter being run by a local pastor and seems to be one of the few shelters in this area that will remain open for the next four to six weeks. The supplies in these three boxes included CPR kits, first aid kits, disinfectant wipes, gloves, and more. The third set of three boxes were shipped to EmmyRose which she will personally deliver to the San Leon/Baycliff area. They included many of the same items listed above. We have estimated the value of these seven boxes to be between $4000 and $5000 which we shipped for just under $350.


Figure 3. More relief supplies on the way!

Contributions to this highly worthy portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr Jeff
Thanks Doc.
Thx... Dr.
GOM IR Loop Link
thanx dr. jeff

Week 1 Outlook – Valid: October 7 - 13, 2008
** ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES:
Eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm Norbert (14.3N, 104.7W) 􀃎 Consult updates from the US National Hurricane Center
Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Depression 13 (19.2N, 94.4W) 􀃎 Consult updates from the US National Hurricane Center
Global Tropics Hazards/Benefits Assessment - Climate Prediction Center - Issued: 10/6/2008
1. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Tropical Storm Norbert is expected to
approach and impact this region later during the period with areas of heavy rainfall. Confidence: Moderate
2. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis for the eastern Pacific, southern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean. The enhanced
phase of the MJO continues to increase the threat for tropical development and model guidance supports development in this region. Confidence: Moderate
3. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for parts of the eastern Pacific, Mexico, Central America, and South America. The
enhanced phase of the MJO and current and potential tropical cyclone activity is expected to result in wet conditions. Confidence: High
4. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the Gulf of Guinea and western Congo Basin areas of Africa. The enhanced phase of the
MJO and favorable low-level winds are expected to result in wet conditions in this region. Confidence: Moderate
5. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the equatorial Indian Ocean. The enhanced phase of the MJO along with warmer than normal
SSTs are expected to result in wet conditions in this region. Confidence: High
6. An increased chance for below-average rainfall stretching from eastern India to the South China Sea. The exiting suppressed phase of the MJO
and continuation of activity associated with the boreal intraseasonal oscillation (BISO) are expected to result in dry conditions in this region. Confidence: Moderate
so Orca, is this increasing mjo in sync with what you see 6-10 days down the road?
Quoting surfmom:
so Orca, is this increasing mjo in sync with what you see 6-10 days down the road?

It is from the chart I was looking at the other day :)
Boy, I'm getting all kinds of good information from you today. I was able to zap your posted pics over to my e-mail. Next project is writing that paper - writing that piece...

Then the process to get into surfrider. We don't have a local chapter here, but I do kinda know the girl in Tampa. So there is a place to start.
Quoting surfmom:
Boy, I'm getting all kinds of good information from you today. I was able to zap your posted pics over to my e-mail. Next project is writing that paper - writing that piece...

Then the process to get into surfrider. We don't have a local chapter here, but I do kinda know the girl in Tampa. So there is a place to start.

Gasp....
I thought you were THE girl in Tampa :)
Well alrighty -- looks like a got a To Do list - post IKE environmental concerns letter, surfrider/portlight proj, and per Orca -- potential waves in my future
I have the quartz sand beaches....
Got to jump out for a while BBL - thanks for a lovely Morning!
Quoting surfmom:
Got to jump out for a while BBL - thanks for a lovely Morning!

later
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Tropical Storm ... MARCO
Present Satellite picture ... MARCO
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 96)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 180)
CMC ... Florida (Hour 216)
CMC ... Very Busy(Hour 240)
CMC 00Z..
17. JRRP

still no pics of the fireball :(

I figured some sat or telescope captured it. There was a KLM flight the was notified and reported back to ground control of witnessing it. Hope someone onboard had a camera handy and just needs to land and get it uploaded.
Interesting to see the ECMWF now on board with development in the caribbean.

Pressures are low in the vicinity so its an area to watch for sure.
Any thoughts on Norbert and Texas? Ike and Fay were so damaging long after they made landfall - and now it looks like Texas might get the remnants of Norbert.
Good morning everyone!
what happened to all the satalights last night? All have a dead spot for a few hours. Did they all go into safemode because of the meteor or were they all tasked to track?

Very wierd
WOW, Adrian, isn't that global forecast model normally extraordinarily conservative when it comes to it predicting TC formation? We should take note of what it's developing, shouldn't we? By the way, there are several other models which also call for development in the Western Carribean.
Should I begin to panic down here in Key West, Adrian?
nevermind found out what the sat glitch was

NOTE: No new MODIS/AMSR-E data sets due to hardware failure at NASA GSFC. Expect repairs Tuesday 10/07/08.


amazing have a hardware failure during a night that all eyes should have been trained on that spot.
Quoting KeyWestMan:
WOW, Adrian, isn't that global forecast model normally extraordinarily conservative when it comes to it predicting TC formation? We should take note of what it's developing shouldn't we? By the way, there are several other models which also call for development in the Western Carribean.


Might be something to watch now that the ECMWF is showing development down there.Maybe some real model support trickling in other then the CMC/NOGAPS.
Quoting hurricane23:


Might be something to watch now that the ECMWF is showing development down there.Maybe some real model support trickling in other then the CMC/NOGAPS.


Would it head our way if it formed or head off towards the NE and away from us instead?
Quoting KeyWestMan:
Should I begin to panic down here in Key West, Adrian?


Panic?

Nothing even close to imminent down there and the only advice i can offer right now is this area this time of the year is prime for tropical cyclone development and as always its worth keeping tabs on the area.
Quoting hurricane23:


Panic?

Nothing even close to imminent down there and the only advice i can offer right now is this area this time of the year is prime for tropical cyclone development and as always its worth keeping tabs on the area.


You two are Hilarious.. my new T&T.
CMC (I know in your personal opinion, junk) Has been showing this for days.
Quoting hurricane23:


Panic?

Nothing even close to imminent down there and the only advice i can offer right now is this area this time of the year is prime for tropical cyclone development and as always its worth keeping tabs on the area.


Your right, I apologies for over-exsagerating this way. By theway, do you know where I can find a good met school in South Florida, also one that's affordable, Adrian?
instead of "Midget Marco", i think the good doc should have used "Macro Marco"...and it's an anagram to boot! LOL
Climatology speaking development down there in october has the potential to cause trouble for us in the keys and southern florida.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
instead of "Midget Marco", i think the good doc should have used "Macro Marco"...and it's an anagram to boot! LOL


Your bad.. that was bad.. LOL
34. i, myself, thought it was quite clever! LOL
Midget Marco - now that is funny.
Quoting KeyWestMan:


Your right, I apologies for over-exsagerating this way. By theway, do you know where I can find a good met school in South Florida, also one that's affordable, Adrian?


Hmmm....

We'll from personal experience Rosenstial at the university of miami offers some great courses.Iam currently getting me Bachelors Degree from FSU which is another fantastic school.
Have a great afternoon....
found these two in Florida for schools

FLORIDA IT- http://www.fit.edu/AcadRes/dmes/index.html

FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY- http://www.met.fsu.edu/

KeyWestMan,
You are too funny!
slow blog today LOL
Quoting hurricane23:
Climatology speaking development down there in october has the potential to cause trouble for us in the keys and southern florida.


HOW ABOUT CENTRAL FL? ARE WE INDANGER THIS MONTH?
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


HOW ABOUT CENTRAL FL? ARE WE INDANGER THIS MONTH?


Depends the direction the system is coming from, anything South and East over South FL not much effects here.
Sorry for the CAPITALS.... I have to work in them and forget sometimes to take them off...
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


HOW ABOUT CENTRAL FL? ARE WE INDANGER THIS MONTH?


No, I think Central and S Fla should be ok the rest of the season which isn;t much left.
Hi! It's kind of nice to NOT have to worry about FL. for a while.
South FL DOES need to still be concerned. Anyone remember WILMA in 2005? (Oct 23-25). We can even have a Thanksgiving storm under the right conditions!
Quoting DopplarDee:
Hi! It's kind of nice to NOT have to worry about FL. for a while.


I'll drink to that Dee!
Quoting BeanTech:


I'll drink to that Dee!

Have another, Are you North or South Fl.
Quoting RJinBoyntonBeachFL:
South FL DOES need to still be concerned. Anyone remember WILMA in 2005? (Oct 23-25). We can even have a Thanksgiving storm under the right conditions!
I am not forgetting FL. I have lived through many hurricanes and I will keep a watch, but lets celebrate TODAY. Take a deep breath. :)
51. JRRP

colleges are in trouble unless they get the student loans reestablished good luck all you weather lovers
Quoting hurricane23:


Hmmm....

We'll from personal experience Rosenstial at the university of miami offers some great courses.Iam currently getting me Bachelors Degree from FSU which is another fantastic school.


I have had a family member teaching continuously at Rosential since 1949. My Uncle Dr. Gilbert L.Voss deceased, and his wife Nancy still.

Quoting DopplarDee:

Have another, Are you North or South Fl.


South...Jupiter
Quoting pearlandaggie:
instead of "Midget Marco", i think the good doc should have used "Macro Marco"...and it's an anagram to boot! LOL


you mean micro marco? macro denotes large...
Would Marco fit in the eye of Wilma when she had her largest eye?
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWO
12:00 PM UTC October 7 2008
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather (1007 hPa) located at 13.2S 72.4E has 10 minutes sustained winds of 20 knots and is reported as moving west-southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 70.5E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.7S 68.6E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 17.3S 64.8E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 17.0S 58.9E - 20 knots (se Comblant)

Additional Information
========================

Current motion is an uncertain. Overall pattern has deteriorated since yesterday with a partially exposed low level center localized on the northwestern edge of the convective mass. ASCAT and Quikscat Swaths of this morning show some weak winds near the center in the 5-15 knot range. They reach 20-25 knots in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient with the subtropical ridge. Consequently, system is generously analyzed at 20 knots.

As sea surface temperatures are under 26C threshold south of 13S and the environmental condition are marginally favorable, this low has quasi no potential for significant strengthening. However it should maintain itself within the next few days as it tracks west-southwest or southwestward over the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. Near the end of the period.. All available guidance curve the track more westward as the ridge strengthen somewhat. The forecast track fall on the philosophy of the european and french model consensus, just a little bit to the north.

Marcareignes Island should be interested by a more unstable air mass, associated with the remnants of this system, starting from Thursday for Rodigues Island and from friday for the Maurice/ Reunion area.

At this stage of intensity, regular tropical cyclone warning are not issued at the moment.

Next tropical cyclone warning is at 12:00 PM 08OCT
Perhaps a reason why the satellites were out?

Sloshing Inside Earth Changes Protective Magnetic Field
Jeremy Hsu
August 18, 2008

Something beneath the surface is changing Earth's protective magnetic field, which may leave satellites and other space assets vulnerable to high-energy radiation.
The gradual weakening of the overall magnetic field can take hundreds and even thousands of years. But smaller, more rapid fluctuations within months may leave satellites unprotected and catch scientists off guard, new research finds.
A new model uses satellite data from the past nine years to show how sudden fluid motions within the Earth's core can alter the magnetic envelope around our planet. This represents the first time that researchers have been able to detect such rapid magnetic field changes taking place over just a few months.
"There are these changes in the South Atlantic, an area where the magnetic field has the smallest envelope at one third [of what is] normal," said Mioara Mandea, a geophysicist at the GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences in Potsdam, Germany.
Even before the newly detected changes, the South Atlantic Anomaly represented a weak spot in the magnetic field ­ a dent in Earth's protective bubble.
Bubble bobble
The Earth's magnetic field extends about 36,000 miles (58,000 km) into space, generated from the spinning effect of the electrically-conductive core that acts something like a giant electromagnet. The field creates a tear-drop shaped bubble that has constantly shielded life on Earth against much of the high-energy radiation flowing from the sun.
The last major change in the field took place some 780,000 years ago during a magnetic reversal, although such reversals seem to occur more often on average. A flip in the north and south poles typically involves a weakening in the magnetic field, followed by a period of rapid recovery and reorganization of opposite polarity.

Some studies in recent years have suggested the next reversal might be imminent, but the jury is out on that question.

Measuring interactions between the magnetic field and the molten iron core 1,864 miles (3,000 km) down has proven difficult in the past, but the constant observations of satellites such as CHAMP and Orsted have begun to bring the picture into focus.

Electric storm

Mandea worked with Nils Olsen, a geophysicist at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark, to create a model of the fluid core that fits with the magnetic field changes detected by the satellites.

However, the rapid weakening of the magnetic field in the South Atlantic Anomaly region could signal future troubles for such satellites. Radiation storms from the sun could fry electronic equipment on satellites that suddenly lacked the protective cover of a rapidly changing magnetic field.

"For satellites, this could be a problem," Mandea told SPACE.com. "If there are magnetic storms and high-energy particles coming from the sun, the satellites could be affected and their connections could be lost."

The constant radiation bombardment from the sun blows with the solar wind to Earth, where it flows against and around the magnetic field. The effect creates the tear-drop shaped magnetosphere bubble, but even the powerful field cannot keep out all the high-energy particles.

Topsy-turvy history

A large sunspot set off a major radiation storm in 2006 that temporarily blinded some sun-watching satellites. Astronauts on the International Space Station retreated to a protected area as a precaution to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure.

The Earth's overall magnetic field has weakened at least 10 percent over the past 150 years, which could also point to an upcoming field reversal.

Mandea and Olsen hope to continue refining their model with updated observations, and perhaps to eventually help predict future changes in the Earth's magnetic field.

The study was detailed in the May online edition of the journal Nature Geoscience.
Not a lot of moisture at this time, but quite a surface spin there at 11N/36W

Link

Orca - do you ever sleep?
Does an anti-cyclone protect against shear or does it only enhance upper level divergence?
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Poor Marco, a mere shell of his gargantuant cousin Ike. The Atlantic tropical season is dying down, but um, anybody take a look at the Pacific? They've been getting hammered just as bad as we have!
The term "Midget" has become a PC no-no in this day of personal sensitivity (or lack thereof). "Small", "Little", "Micro", "Condensed". Other suggestions ?
South FL DOES need to still be concerned. Anyone remember WILMA in 2005? (Oct 23-25). We can even have a Thanksgiving storm under the right conditions!

I am sure this post will vanish, but what is up with all the doom and gloom? Do you enjoy living in fear for six months out of the year? Yes, we all remember Wilma, but that was somewhat unusual, and the odds do go way down in late October. Not saying it can't happen, but let's all try and relax . . . geez.
Quoting SicPlanet:
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Poor Marco, a mere shell of his gargantuant cousin Ike. The Atlantic tropical season is dying down, but um, anybody take a look at the Pacific? They've been getting hammered just as bad as we have!


Hades always keeps us up-to-date on the Pacific.

And, it is appreciated Hades.
Quoting Seastep:
Does an anti-cyclone protect against shear or does it only enhance upper level divergence?


Anyone? Thanks.
Quoting PortABeachBum:
The term "Midget" has become a PC no-no in this day of personal sensitivity (or lack thereof). "Small", "Little", "Micro", "Condensed". Other suggestions ?
Miniscule lol or Sub Compact
63 - mini, petite, paquito
70. JRRP
Post65 --mmmmm ..I want the dress & the dude LOL -- nice afternoon delight Beantech -- gonna be hard to focus at work this afternoon......I can just see me riding the horse & thinking the video ROTFL ...how old am I? Reboot!
Oh yes, Hades helps me keep an eye on my son's crazy surfer godfather in the Phillipines
Hi surfmom - Gulf still flat?
seastep ..soooooooo flat, lake-like
It's the fishermen, Kitesurfers, kayakers, divers time... everybody gets a turn.
I'm off to work, gonna get my young buck -head over to the ranch, workout the horses and do a serious grooming. The Patron is in from a trip and the herd has got to look perfect. Just hoping no t-storms till we are through
You all have a good afternoon -- back in the evening. PS I so loved that that video
Quoting PortABeachBum:
The term "Midget" has become a PC no-no in this day of personal sensitivity (or lack thereof). "Small", "Little", "Micro", "Condensed". Other suggestions ?


size challenged (i am only 5' tall so i tell people i am vertically challenged!) lol
been lurking...ummmm....midget huh?

How bout....

Homunculus Hurricane Marco
I'm not sure I ever remember seeing a trop storm that small. Poor little fella.
surfmom - have a good one. Maybe that blob coming off the panhandle will churn something up for you.
were is storm w?
Fl Panhandle is getting soaked and the lightning and thunder was really intense last night. Woke us up 4 times with close hits.
At Marco's peak size, tropical storm-force winds covered an area of about 1,158 nm, which is 1/75 as big as Ike's.

Another comparison - at Marco's smallest size 10 mile wind radius), Ike was over 750 times larger in area of TS force winds and over 150 times larger in area of hurricane force winds.
STL... might want to modify to 75 and 15. :)
Hurricane23
I just got back from a trip with my 7 y/o granddaughter. Her favorite station is TWC. She watched it from 12mn to 3am. She kept me updated on the cold front and even told me a hurricane was coming. I told her, wrong ocean...going the other way...not going to bother us. She reminded me that people live elsewhere besides the US.:') Don't know where she is going with this.
Ahhhhh, but we need the wet stuff falling from the sky so badly, hard to complain. : )

Hi all!

Quoting intunewindchime:
Fl Panhandle is getting soaked and the lightning and thunder was really intense last night. Woke us up 4 times with close hits.
Who determines to "hurry up and name" some of these thunderstorms? It is quite ridiculous to watch these folks name everything that has clouds...especially because it is getting late in the year and they desire to make it look as busy a year as possible...asinine!
Quoting MichaelSTL:
At Marco's peak size, tropical storm-force winds covered an area of about 1,158 nm, which is 1/75 as big as Ike's.

Another comparison - at Marco's smallest size 10 mile wind radius), Ike was over 750 times larger in area of TS force winds and over 150 times larger in area of hurricane force winds.


Okay, I know that calc. trig, and statistics killed off more of my brain cells than all the booze I ever drank in college, but those equations just aren't working for me...
If the wind field of 10miles is correct, even Tracy was 3x as big. And packing much more of a wallop.

Quoting RobDaHood:


Okay, I know that calc. trig, and statistics killed off more of my brain cells than all the booze I ever drank in college, but those equations just aren't working for me...


Ike was 27.5 times wider in TS force winds (275/10; this is radius but it works the same as diameter); since a tropical cyclone covers two dimensions, you square this to find the difference in area; 27.5^2 = 756.25.
Quoting poikoo:
were is storm w?


He indicated that he had some work to do on his PC this morning and would be back latter.
Quoting Seastep:
STL... might want to modify to 75 and 15. :)


Actually, that isn't right; consider, for simplicity, a square that is 1x1 miles on a side (1 square mile), and then a square that is 10x10 miles on a side (100 square miles); the larger one is 10 times wider but 100 times the area; you need to square the difference to get the difference in area. This also works for a circle (tropical cyclone) or any two shapes that are identical in shape.
Ahhh... area... gotcha.
MichaelSTL:

see where you're going now. SQ miles would be the apropriate way to describe "area". Just not used to seeing storms measured in this way.
Here is a graphical depiction:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
63. PortABeachBum 4:47 PM GMT on October 07, 2008
The term "Midget" has become a PC no-no in this day of personal sensitivity (or lack thereof). "Small", "Little", "Micro", "Condensed". Other suggestions ?
------------

how about 'physically challenged' marco?
So, we could have Nana in the next 36 hours. The season is 99% over why?
Afternoon all! Did I hear someone say Nana? Where are we expecting this to form? Carib or Atl?
tropics might be slow, but over here in california we should be into santa ana wind season soon. after last year's fires, i would welcome a "quiet year" on this phenomenon, too.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
So, we could have Nana in the next 36 hours. The season is 99% over why?


It really isn't 99% over; I think even at the end of November it isn't at 99% over (progress of the average season) because storms have developed in December. Perhaps 80% over; October is considered one of the peak months (August-October) and is normally more active than June and July combined, people seem to forget this even after 2005 (October was the most active month in 2005).
Finally get to go fishing this weekend, after several canceled trips! I got what I was asking for with a busy hurrican season in the Atlantic, unlike the prior three years.
Statistically speaking the Hurricane Season is about 76% over in terms of named systems, of course anything can happen between now and the end of November, some of the most powerful hurricanes have been recorded in Oct & Nov.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


It really isn't 99% over; I think even at the end of November it isn't at 99% over (progress of the average season) because storms have developed in December. Perhaps 80% over; October is considered one of the peak months (August-October) and is normally more active than June and July combined, people seem to forget this even after 2005 (October was the most active month in 2005).


I was saying about the other people that said that.
Quoting intunewindchime:
Fl Panhandle is getting soaked and the lightning and thunder was really intense last night. Woke us up 4 times with close hits.


Just a few sprinkles so far in PCB.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
BREAKING NEWS Dow Jones collapses again with a 300+ point drop for the 2nd day in a row


I usually don't respond to this stuff, but where do you get your news?

3% is not a "collapse" in my book.
make that over 400 points
Quoting Seastep:


I usually don't respond to this stuff, but where do you get your news?

3% is not a "collapse" in my book.



well when you have been dropping for days another 3 percent is a lot
drop is now 4.5 percent and 450 points
Not trying to downplay or directing at you... it is certainly dicey right now.

Just can't stand over-hyping headlines like that. Whoever wrote "collapse" in that headline should not be a journalist.

Tumbles? Falls? Drops? Sure, but "collapses again" in the context of a 3% drop is irresponsible journalism.
At 3:50PM ET: 9,498.16 -457.34 (4.59%)

Yes, it is a large drop when tacked on to the previous totals.
large drop works, too. :)
looks like it has recovered some but it may go back the other way

Quoting Seastep:
Not trying to downplay or directing at you... it is certainly dicey right now.

Just can't stand over-hyping headlines like that. Whoever wrote "collapse" in that headline should not be a journalist.

Tumbles? Falls? Drops? Sure, but "collapses again" in the context of a 3% drop is irresponsible journalism.


I agree I just saw that on the news so I posted it word for word

anyways it is back dropping again
Oh boy.....At 3:58PM ET: 9,472.67 -482.83 (4.85%)
Index Value: 9,459.85
Trade Time: 4:01PM ET
Change: Down 495.65 (4.98%)
Index Value: 9,453.72
Trade Time: 4:02PM ET
Change: Down 501.78 (5.04%)

over 500 point drop
Not just the Dow that is falling; S&P is below 1,000:

Dow 9,459.85 -495.65 (-4.98%)
Nasdaq 1,754.88 -108.08 (-5.80%)
S&P 500 997.62 -59.27 (-5.61%)
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Not just the Dow that is falling; S&P is below 1,000:

Dow 9,459.85 -495.65 (-4.98%)
Nasdaq 1,754.88 -108.08 (-5.80%)
S&P 500 997.62 -59.27 (-5.61%)



this is just crazy

Dow drops further

Index Value: 9,449.66
Trade Time: 4:02PM ET
Change: Down 505.84 (5.08%)
I know thundercloud... was trying to be careful to direct my comments specifically at the headline. That is what got my goat. Not directed at you by any means.

Please don't think so.
Quoting Seastep:
I know thundercloud... was trying to be careful to direct my comments specifically at the headline. That is what got my goat. Not directed at you by any means.

Please don't think so.



nope that is fine just wanted to make sure others knew it was not me
Index Value: 9,447.11
Trade Time: 4:05PM ET
Change: Down 508.39 (5.11%)

ok when is this dropping going to stop

I sold 80% of my stocks @ 13,500: put it all in mm & cd's. Otherwise I'd be a basket case now...
so that is a well developed system just offshore western nicaraqua. wonder if it has any plans on moving north?
I'm a buy and holder... care more what it is 20-30 years from now. And it will be higher.
The rain has been coming down in buckets all day here in Melbourne. Ready for blue skies and sunshine again. It is like Fay all over again.
Quoting Seastep:
I'm a buy and holder... care more what it is 20-30 years from now. And it will be higher.


Got in 12 years ago for the long haul. I currently have less than I started with. This market has been very volatile over this period. It did not recover from the drop in 2000-03 and now again. Whew! When will it end?
Quoting UWalkTheMall:


Got in 12 years ago for the long haul. I currently have less than I started with. This market has been very volatile over this period. It did not recover from the drop in 2000-03 and now again. Whew! When will it end?


Wow. Really. Must have been peak which was about 12K. It did recover from the bubble in 2000-2003... it was under 8K.....
we might be headed for a depression
Just as long as it isn't tropical.
Quite a bit of shear, but seems somethings trying to get going south of DR.
I have stocks that have gone down to 37/share from 52. No way I'm selling now...just going to wait...same with the other stuff. Wait it out.
Does anyone know why Marco never became a hurricane despite having a good amount of time in the BOC?

Also, could we see a depression from either of the three systems in the atlantic (one near nicaruga, one above antilles, or one off of African coast)?
No depression-but stocks are ultimately dependent on earnings, and they are going down fast. But the market can rocket up 500 points also. I'm 58, so not too much speculation for me...I'd be surfin' & drawing on IRA in a year.
Hopefully after the election, our economy will begin to grow. It is proven throughout the years that the election is bad for the economy. But generally speaking it comes back quite quickly once the election is over. At this point it is not unlike the weather, VERY UNPREDICTABLE!
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Does anyone know why Marco never became a hurricane despite having a good amount of time in the BOC?

Also, could we see a depression from either of the three systems in the atlantic (one near nicaruga, one above antilles, or one off of African coast)?


See Dr. Master's post - no recon since the flight yesterday (which confirmed that it was a 65 mph tropical storm). We'll probably never know how strong Marco got... I REALLY hate it when they don't do recon in storms like this...
Quoting conchygirl:
The rain has been coming down in buckets all day here in Melbourne. Ready for blue skies and sunshine again. It is like Fay all over again.
Yikes, a greyhound and a siamese just fell out of the sky! LOL
137. IKE
Tropical Depression Marco
Wind: 35 MPH — Location: 19.9N 97.1W — Movement: W
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
TD ... MARCO
Present Satellite picture ... MARCO
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 96)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 180)
CMC ... Florida (Hour 216)
CMC ... Very Busy(Hour 240)
CMC 00Z..

wow look at norbert go lol
Good day all! Are all of the models still predicting the formation of a TC in the Western Carribean by this weekend?
The surface circulation about 12N/36W looks like it's finally getting wet.

Hey, it's as big as Marco...
Well, it's almost goodbye to Marco. Will be a rainmaker for the next 24-36 hours.
Do you realise that the E-Pac P storm is Polo if it occurs?
Quoting jambev:
Well, it's almost goodbye to Marco. Will be a rainmaker for the next 24-36 hours.
Do you realise that the E-Pac P storm is Polo if it occurs?


Is it? THAT is funny.
The rain has been coming down in buckets all day here in Melbourne. Ready for blue skies and sunshine again. It is like Fay all over again.


That's what I compare this to.
we are flooded out ....but blue skies have immediately replaced the gloom!
My best quess why Marco did not further strengthen is dry air to the north as well as alittle windshear.
Quoting jambev:
Well, it's almost goodbye to Marco. Will be a rainmaker for the next 24-36 hours.
Do you realise that the E-Pac P storm is Polo if it occurs?
How do you know? I love it.
Back from volunteer work all day and am really tired. But, it was rewarding to know that I made a difference helping out a classroom with Autistic students.

Anyways, still can't believe how incredibly miniature Tropical Storm Marco became. It will definitely be a unique storm that I will not forget.

I will have full tropics analysis tomorrow afternoon as I will be taking the rest of the day off. Would love it if someone could inform me about the latest happenings in the tropics and the computer model outputs.
cch - quick question. I posted this before but no one answered.

I know that an anti-cyclone enhances upper level divergence, but does it also protect against shear?
149. JRRP
cch - not much going on out there on the Atl side.

All models show something developing off of Africa.

Surface circulation at 12N/36W. Not a lot of moisture, although a little burst of convection has started.

Area S of DR has no surface circulation, but increased in activity during the day. Pretty high shear there, though.

The area E of Yucatan has changed little today.
Quoting Seastep:
cch - quick question. I posted this before but no one answered.

I know that an anti-cyclone enhances upper level divergence, but does it also protect against shear?


Depending upon the orientation of the anticyclone over a tropical system, it protects from higher surrounding wind shear as the flow protruding the anticyclone's centers fends off the wind shear and creates a new upper-level environment, otherwise known as upper-level divergence.
thanks cch
Kinda interesting:


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
234 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008


THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ANCHORS ON A LOW NEAR 12N 88W. THIS
FEATURE ACTUALLY RETROGRESSED UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT LOW MOVING
ACROSS HONDURAS. THIS IS FAVORING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THAT IS
INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT AS THE TUTT WEAKENS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE CYCLE...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED...THIS CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION MIGHT BE MORE
FAVORABLE.
MEANWHILE...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OFFSHORE...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE OVER EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AFTER 48-54 HRS. MEANWHILE...RAINFALL
MAXIMA ACROSS COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA WILL PEAK AT
35-70MM...WHILE OVER NORTHWEST NICARAGUA-EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN
HONDURAS MAXIMA WILL PEAK AT 30-60MM.

154. JRRP
the surface circulation 12n 36w is another small low like marco was
The MJO is really exciting things in the EPAC.
Quoting vortfix:
Kinda interesting:


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
234 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008


THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ANCHORS ON A LOW NEAR 12N 88W. THIS
FEATURE ACTUALLY RETROGRESSED UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT LOW MOVING
ACROSS HONDURAS. THIS IS FAVORING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THAT IS
INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT AS THE TUTT WEAKENS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE CYCLE...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED...THIS CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION MIGHT BE MORE
FAVORABLE.
MEANWHILE...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OFFSHORE...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE OVER EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AFTER 48-54 HRS. MEANWHILE...RAINFALL
MAXIMA ACROSS COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA WILL PEAK AT
35-70MM...WHILE OVER NORTHWEST NICARAGUA-EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN
HONDURAS MAXIMA WILL PEAK AT 30-60MM.



Been watching that area for quite some time now expecting tropical development there at any moment as surface pressures have been lower than normal in the Western Caribbean and convective activity has been progressively increasing in this area throughout the season. Only a matter of time before a tropical cyclone spins up there.
the ull is looking very suspicious near nic. look at the black and white water vapor
Something seems to be organised in the Carribean SE of Hisp I believe sheer is low there.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
TD ... MARCO
Present Satellite picture ... MARCO
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 96)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 180)
CMC ... Florida (Hour 216)
CMC ... Very Busy(Hour 240)
CMC 00Z..
A lot of stuff heading toward Florida.
Well, back in for two seconds before I head to the kitchen -- frankly -- I like them little bars of gold....the rest seems like air to me (might well end up being that way)
Timing, timing -- don't think it rained on my side of I75 SRQ, but out East on the other side -- it POURED and thundered. Had just about the entire horse track/workout completed, My son was ponying horses..meaning riding one and towing one on each side. I was on the old grey mare who hates to get wet. The ride back to the barn was not a pretty picture -probably comical for some- but the rain starts pelting and she's going back to the barn, to hell with me --that old mare can sure move when motivated LOL I could hardly see for all the rain,she's stomping & snorting -- mud in the eyes, my mouth just nasty. Son behind me is just laughing. Wet saddles and tack -- more work to clean grrrr.
But we did need the rain out there, pastures are seeded -- that timing there perfect.
Well, I will be signing out early for tonight. I will be back tomorrow afternoon after I get through with my classes. I will have full analysis and a complete website update then. Have a great night and look forward to chatting with everyone tomorrow.
Quoting melwerle:
I have stocks that have gone down to 37/share from 52. No way I'm selling now...just going to wait...same with the other stuff. Wait it out.


Mel - Seems like a similar tactic to boarding up your house in Gilcrest , TX with Ike coming and going inside to wait it out
I know you have probably mentioned this several times,however I have been away since Hurricane Ike..What happened to Storm W ?
Quoting Vortex95:
A lot of stuff heading toward Florida.



SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! Don't say that!
Howdy Grits!
WOW, now all of the model runs this afternoon forecast a TC to form in the W. Carib later on this week. Should I be concerned over here folks?
Quoting Vortex95:
A lot of stuff heading toward Florida.

Any more info or links on that? Im in central florida.

Evening everyone.
Quoting Vortex95:
A lot of stuff heading toward Florida.


Shh! Don't say that, Florida has a shield, specially the West Coast, nothing can hit Florida! Lol, only if, but it feels thats what some believe.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Thanks Orca. Who is working that shield?? We need to call them.
It's been weird weather up here in the Panhandle last 24 hrs or so. Winds E/ESE with fair amounts of rain. Just over in Gulf Shores, AL they had 8+ inches with some downed trees and power lines last night and early this morning. That's lots of rain even for here. Cold front headed this way wasn't the culprit either.

Check out the Northwest Atlantic - Water Vapor Loopand you can see it.
Quoting Jerrob:
Thanks Orca. Who is working that shield?? We need to call them.


Sorry Capt'n it appears the deflectors may be hooped.
Not sure whats happening.. have the deflectors up for Florida.. but we found a bug in the software. Its a virus, not sure who put it there.. its called surfmom_bouncing_buoys. I have no idea how it works, but it appears to try and aim everything at Western Florida.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Not sure whats happening.. have the deflectors up for Florida.. but we found a bug in the software. Its a virus, not sure who put it there.. its called surfmom_bouncing_buoys. I have no idea how it works, but it appears to try and aim everything at Western Florida.
LOL!
I have a question.... My husband and I have a trip planned to Las Vegas next week.(tues-sat) He is a power lineman here in central fl. and has to be here for storms.. Do I need to worry about cancelling my plans? :-(
177. JRRP
recent quikscat
Quoting vortfix:
Kinda interesting:


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
234 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008


THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ANCHORS ON A LOW NEAR 12N 88W. THIS
FEATURE ACTUALLY RETROGRESSED UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT LOW MOVING
ACROSS HONDURAS. THIS IS FAVORING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THAT IS
INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT AS THE TUTT WEAKENS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE CYCLE...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED...THIS CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION MIGHT BE MORE
FAVORABLE.
MEANWHILE...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OFFSHORE...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE OVER EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AFTER 48-54 HRS. MEANWHILE...RAINFALL
MAXIMA ACROSS COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA WILL PEAK AT
35-70MM...WHILE OVER NORTHWEST NICARAGUA-EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN
HONDURAS MAXIMA WILL PEAK AT 30-60MM.



We might have Nana coming from this or the disturbance at 12 N, 36 W.
A friend working disaster relief with me in Texas got a week off to go with children for a vacation at Cabo San Lucas this week. I looked at the track for Hurricane Norbert. Coming her way. Reminds of when I finally went home after working the Florida four hurricanes for a one week break on the houseboat at Lake Powell - hurricane remains came up from Gulf of California and nearly drowned us the whole week. Big cosmic joker up there works hard at this stuff.
Quoting Jerrob:
I have a question.... My husband and I have a trip planned to Las Vegas next week.(tues-sat) He is a power lineman here in central fl. and has to be here for storms.. Do I need to worry about cancelling my plans? :-(


I am not knowledgeable enough to answer this properly.. I would recommend StormW. Going by the models.. don't use your Credit Card to reserve the rooms :)
174Orca -- ROTFL - total tummy laugh - whoooo me, looking for waves???? Bounce the Buoy !!! Truly, after get whacked around by Ike (Tina wasn't the only one) I have great trepidation regarding anything to do w/canes for this season -.... well I better fess up, I'm not wishing...but if a cane happens -- I will take advantage.....I'm that kinda girl
Yeaa, cosmic joker is going to pull one on me, got plans to go surf the other coast in a few weeks (=/-) -- so either a cane will get me there & force me to cancel, or it'll come to my coast and I'll miss the waves....
Quoting Jerrob:
I have a question.... My husband and I have a trip planned to Las Vegas next week.(tues-sat) He is a power lineman here in central fl. and has to be here for storms.. Do I need to worry about cancelling my plans? :-(


you sound like me...my husband is also a lineman...we try to not plan to much during hurricane season...we spend the money in the winter/spring....Which Utility?
Then I'll have to donate to the Hurricane Relief Fund to absolve my sins - portlight.org
thanks again orca.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


We might have Nana coming from this or the disturbance at 12 N, 36 W.

no that disturbance is in the pacific
does anyone have recording of live coverage during Hurricane Katrina from news stations
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
does anyone have recording of live coverage during Hurricane Katrina from news stations


Youtube's your friend.
From the 8pm:

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 41W HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED TO
ALONG 50W/51W BASED ON INVERTED-V SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND
CYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED FROM RECENT BUOY/SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE
WAVE IS S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

156Km gust last night on North Vancouver Island.. we only got 80km
191. Relix
We will be getting an invest soon I guess.
Quoting vabeachhurricanes2:

no that disturbance is in the pacific

wrong its the alantic look at the longitude and latititude
-
what hurricanemanic123 is mentioning is the area near 12n and 36w on this map...btw as u can see its the atlantic not pacific
Area around 14N/68W starting to look interesting this evening, I wonder if that could be the area with potential to develop in the Western caribbean.
Norbert is huge! I'm thinking this could become a cat. 3.
Hey Orca,

Sounds a bit breezy! Around 100mph!
Quoting Orcasystems:
156Km gust last night on North Vancouver Island.. we only got 80km

yep norbert is huge and looks like it wants to form an eye in this lastest image btw the convection is wrapping around like that
Good evening folks,

About 11N, 36W ??


Also any news on the press-in-a-dress front?
by the way this is From Wikipedia


Tropical Storm Marco is the thirteenth named storm of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. It is currently active over southeastern Mexico as an extremely small depression.

While at tropical storm strength Marco was an extremely small storm; tropical storm-force winds extended out only up to 10 mi (16 km) from the center of Marco.[1] This makes it the smallest tropical cyclone on record in any basin; the previous record holder was Cyclone Tracy in 1974, which featured tropical storm force winds 30 miles (48 km) from the
We are back to humid days and nights.
Temps touching 80F - not sure fall is here yet.

Good night folks

Quoting stormpetrol:
Area around 14N/68W starting to look interesting this evening, I wonder if that could be the area with potential to develop in the Western caribbean.


Looks like a Sfc Low there, I see that if develop in a N NE track based on the present condition in the area, an inpresive tunderstorm develop in the area within an hour! will any have the presure near the area??
Does anyone think it's ironic that the smallest and the largest Atlantic cyclones formed in the Body of water (GOMex) the same year.
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Hey Orca,

Sounds a bit breezy! Around 100mph!


Yup, just a smidge
I don't mind the winds... its the wading in the pond to get the branches out... water deep.. me short.. bad mix.
Orca and in mph (sorry beach bunny moment) --thanks Beachfoxx
Orca - you should get those fishermen boot/pants
Quoting surfmom:
Orca and in mph (sorry beach bunny moment) --


Fully understandable after knowing this:)

174. Orcasystems 11:29 PM GMT on October 07, 2008
Not sure whats happening.. have the deflectors up for Florida.. but we found a bug in the software. Its a virus, not sure who put it there.. its called surfmom_bouncing_buoys. I have no idea how it works, but it appears to try and aim everything at Western Florida.

How cold by you Orca -
Quoting surfmom:
Orca - you should get those fishermen boot/pants


You mean hip waders.. yes I know..
Quoting surfmom:
How cold by you Orca -


About 11C
Our pal Dr. Lyons basically said that conditions are not favorable in the Atlantic zone for anything to develop.

Just the messenger:)
Orca -- come on....LOL- mea culpa - some people need beer, others waves.....and I can't just go to the store...I have to watch and wait till mother nature gives it up. But I will say - Ike was plenty....destruction, devastation, his waves were loaded with stinging nettles & and jellies - no one needs to deal with another cane. I pulled out the wetsuit and I'm waiting on those cold fronts to make some waves.
213. JRRP
Right hipwaders -- I don't have those......
215. JRRP
Quoting stormpetrol:
Area around 14N/68W starting to look interesting this evening, I wonder if that could be the area with potential to develop in the Western caribbean.

Good evening everyone - see surfmom's up to tricks today!

Our weather is finally beautiful - not 90, not raining, light wind. These are the days we live here for.

Quoting surfmom:
Right hipwaders -- I don't have those......


Some nights we all need them on here.. it gets deep.
STOP ! : )we don't need anything else coming across from Africa. I've been fascinated enough this season -- yup I got my fill. Learned a ton of things. Started to learn how to read the maps...but enough with the 'cane lessons. The canes this year were crazy.... they had such bizzare behaviors. My favorite for surf --hands down would be Dolly. Her waves were just plain lovely. close my eyes and i can still see them --
Quoting Orcasystems:


Some nights we all need them on here.. it gets deep.

YIKES
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
TD ... MARCO
Present Satellite picture ... MARCO
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 96)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 180)
CMC ... Florida (Hour 216)
CMC ... Very Busy(Hour 240)
CMC 00Z..
Zoo, Totally agree! We call it "Why We Live Here Weather"....
This season was kind of hard on the nerves, seemed like nothing wanted to go where it was suppose to, everything wanted to wander around, and they sure took their sweet time forming.
Quoting surfmom:
Zoo, Totally agree! We call it "Why We Live Here Weather"....


Yup, its just beautiful down there I see :)


Click to enlarge.. if you dare :)
Exactly, it was all real gritty -- except for Dolly -- and Ike, I swear that storm brought an ill wind with it --
You know surf, I don't think I appreciated the difference of living on the west coast. The temperatures are very different, more mild than here in Miami.

I guess that's how we got away with living in a house with no AC. Would pack up and leave if I had to do that here.
We are in between blobs thank you. Tough life tomorrow, have to drive to the keys for hearing. I love the water, the bridges, and the green stuff.
Orca - for me it's such a special spot, that I never want to leave-- and I very rarely have in 20 plus years.

your land is gorgeous and I do miss those kinds of trees -- but the cold..... just couldn't deal with the cold and the winnnnnd ! 100mph
I like the wind - there is something so dramatic about the high winds. When I lived on the Jersey coast, ordinary winds were about 15k. That's one of the reason the inlets are so hard to maneveur with the boats.
I know what you mean Zoo -- looking out to the water - it's all so beautifully blue!.
Quoting JRRP:



No circulation Yet...
When we lived in maui, there were the Trades.... my god could those winds go...... I didn't miss them for them for a long time
Quoting zoomiami:
We are in between blobs thank you. Tough life tomorrow, have to drive to the keys for hearing. I love the water, the bridges, and the green stuff.
hey zoo lemme know if you wanna have lunch while you are down here will take you to great seafood place
Do anyone knows a link for the ABC island doppler will be interesting see the sfc in that area.
thanks Windy - but I'm only going to Plantation. If it was Key West I would already be there - too much of a drive from Miami for morning.

oh ok zoo open invite
I'm such a ditz, I just realized why it's so quiet .. the debate. anyway, I'm beat and got more of today --tomorrow -smile. Have a good night All
nite surf may all your dreams be of following swells
Quoting surfmom:
I'm such a ditz, I just realized why it's so quiet .. the debate. anyway, I'm beat and got more of today --tomorrow -smile. Have a good night All

I'm a Canadian, and even I am watching it... that being said..as a Canuck, I can do more then one thing at a time :)
234windy - big smile
Windy, I use to live down there, but I don't get that far very often. Most times the traffic is a pain, and I liked it better when it wasn't so commercial.
238Orca --hey, I'm the queen of multi-tasking ROTFL g'nite
ok all off like a prom dress..
Quoting WindynEYW:
ok all off like a prom dress..


Off.. Prom dress.. ahh the memories
Quoting WindynEYW:
ok all off like a prom dress..


Ewwwwwww
Bad picture...
Did press do the Dress yet?
Howdy Grits!
Hey StormW! Your thoughts on the Western Carribean this evening, please sir.
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!

On for a short.


Storm what do you think of the area aroun 14n 68w??
NORBERT winds are now up too 90kt


Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
TD ... MARCO
Present Satellite picture ... MARCO
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 96)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 180)
CMC ... Florida (Hour 216)
CMC ... Very Busy(Hour 240)
CMC 00Z..
Quoting StormW:
247. KeyWestMan 10:10 PM EDT on October 07, 2008
Hey StormW! Your thoughts on the Western Carribean this evening, please sir

248. antonio28 10:10 PM EDT on October 07, 2008
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!

On for a short.


Storm what do you think of the area aroun 14n 68w??

I'll take a look.




Thanks, how are your boys by the way? I hope their well!
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT (EP152008) 20081008 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081008 0000 081008 1200 081009 0000 081009 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 108.6W 15.7N 110.1W 16.2N 111.6W 16.7N 112.7W
BAMD 15.6N 108.6W 16.5N 110.3W 17.5N 111.8W 18.4N 113.0W
BAMM 15.6N 108.6W 16.5N 110.2W 17.4N 111.7W 18.1N 113.0W
LBAR 15.6N 108.6W 16.5N 110.3W 17.8N 111.9W 19.3N 113.4W
SHIP 90KTS 100KTS 103KTS 101KTS
DSHP 90KTS 100KTS 103KTS 101KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081010 0000 081011 0000 081012 0000 081013 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 113.7W 18.9N 114.5W 19.5N 114.7W 19.4N 117.2W
BAMD 19.3N 114.0W 22.2N 114.2W 26.6N 110.2W 35.6N 100.6W
BAMM 18.8N 114.2W 20.2N 115.2W 21.2N 115.2W 22.0N 117.4W
LBAR 21.2N 114.0W 27.3N 111.8W 40.3N 100.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 96KTS 75KTS 53KTS 31KTS
DSHP 96KTS 75KTS 45KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 108.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 106.8W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 105.4W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 90NM
Quoting StormW:
252. KeyWestMan 10:19 PM EDT on October 07, 2008
Quoting StormW:
247. KeyWestMan 10:10 PM EDT on October 07, 2008
Hey StormW! Your thoughts on the Western Carribean this evening, please sir

248. antonio28 10:10 PM EDT on October 07, 2008
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!

On for a short.


Storm what do you think of the area aroun 14n 68w??

I'll take a look.





Thanks, how are your boys by the way? I hope their well!


Youngest is ok. Spent most of the day at the Pulmonologist with my oldest. Been having trouble keeping his asthma under control...Doc checked him out and said he has bronchitis, and that's what's aggravating it.

The western Caribbean...that's the ULL I had in my forecast yesterday. There is dry air to it's west, and the low is moving WSW.

14N;68W...Quikscat doesn't show any surface low. However, if convection continues to build, it could jave some slow development, as the 18Z run on the GFS shear forecast show upper level winds becoming a little more favorable in about 12 hours through 48 hours, then marginal there after. I exepct it to move WNW-NW over the next 48 hours. Like to see updated steering and shear tomorrow.

Ok...I'm out!

THANKS!!
256. JRRP
254
that is interesting
Quoting StormW:
252. KeyWestMan 10:19 PM EDT on October 07, 2008
Quoting StormW:
247. KeyWestMan 10:10 PM EDT on October 07, 2008
Hey StormW! Your thoughts on the Western Carribean this evening, please sir

248. antonio28 10:10 PM EDT on October 07, 2008
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!

On for a short.


Storm what do you think of the area aroun 14n 68w??

I'll take a look.





Thanks, how are your boys by the way? I hope their well!


Youngest is ok. Spent most of the day at the Pulmonologist with my oldest. Been having trouble keeping his asthma under control...Doc checked him out and said he has bronchitis, and that's what's aggravating it.

The western Caribbean...that's the ULL I had in my forecast yesterday. There is dry air to it's west, and the low is moving WSW.

14N;68W...Quikscat doesn't show any surface low. However, if convection continues to build, it could have some slow development, as the 18Z run on the GFS shear forecast show upper level winds becoming a little more favorable in about 12 hours through 48 hours, then marginal there after. I exepct it to move WNW-NW over the next 48 hours. Like to see updated steering and shear tomorrow.

Ok...I'm out!


I wish him a speedy recovery. Thanks for answering my questions, God bless you and good night!!!
This season has drained my patience. I'm glad its almost over. I'm tired, I need some boat time. Forget hurricanes, forget agw cooling/warming or whatever religious belief is in vogue, forget the credit crunch, I need some serious boat time. Oh yeah and forget the political stuff too. I need to pull some anchors, shake out some reefed sails and head for the islands.
boy. hurricane tom brokaw just wasted my night. what a disservice he did to the voter. that was perhaps the dumbest debate format I've ever seen and definatly the worst moderator. Sheesh.
Quoting msphar:
This season has drained my patience. I'm glad its almost over. I'm tired, I need some boat time. Forget hurricanes, forget agw cooling/warming or whatever religious belief is in vogue, forget the credit crunch, I need some serious boat time.

If its south..and warm and sunny.. pick me.. I have Canadian beer
Dude your tempting me, she's at Rosy Roads just wasting away. 2 hours to Vieques, 4 more to St Thomas.
Quoting Tazmanian:
NORBERT winds are now up too 90kt



Is it coming towards you Taz?
Quoting msphar:
Dude your tempting me, she's at Rosy Roads just wasting away. 2 hours to Vieques, 4 more to St Thomas.

wasting away!!!.. I'm telling the sister..she may report you for abuse. SPCB, may hear about you
Quoting Orcasystems:


Off.. Prom dress.. ahh the memories

LOL
Taz is in the foothills of the Sierra, if he ever gets a hurricane, it'll be the end of the world as you know it.
I hang my head in shame, what sort of Canadian beer did you say ?
Quoting msphar:
I hang my head in shame, what sort of Canadian beer did you say ?


Hmm not sure now, thats a pretty serious offence... I may have to bring you lite beer.
268. JRRP
NAM 84h

Lite Beer, well then I'll probably have to dig out a case of that Turk'shead beer down in the bilge. Its probably still good, whats it been...2 years ? Current temp at Rosy is 77.2F and clear. Not bad for 2300 hours.

Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Quoting msphar:
Lite Beer, well then I'll probably have to dig out a case of that Turk'shead beer down in the bilge. Its probably still good, whats it been...2 years ? Current temp at Rosy is 77.2F and clear. Not bad for 2300 hours.



Hmm still got 4 x 40 oz of the old grog still.. but if you drink that, you'll be lucky to find the jetty :)
I'd be lucky to find the head.
262. JupiterFL 7:45 PM PDT on October 07, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
NORBERT winds are now up too 90kt




Is it coming towards you Taz?



nop and nop
Quoting Tazmanian:
262. JupiterFL 7:45 PM PDT on October 07, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
NORBERT winds are now up too 90kt
Is it coming towards you Taz?
nop and nop


Taz can get storms like this though (from January):

...WE WILL SEE IF THIS PATTERN
PRODUCES A STORM OF HISTORICAL OR BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS.


SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEARING
130W RIDING A STRONG JET STREAM. SATELLITE DERIVED JET LEVEL WINDS
ARE AS HIGH AS 235 KTS!!!! WV/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE
BAROCLINIC LEAF NOW INSIDE 130W AT AROUND 35N. THIS FEATURE IS
POINTED DIRECTLY AT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH CURRENT RAINFALL
RATES ESTIMATED CLOSE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR.


IN ADDITION...RIDGE GUSTS OF UP TO 200 MPH WILL OCCUR.


SNOW FALL AMOUNTS WILL BE 7 TO 10 FEET FROM YOSEMITE HIGH COUNTRY
THROUGH SEQUOIA PARK AND INTO KINGS CANYON NATIONAL PARK MAINLY
ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE CRESTS TO UPWARDS
OF 12 FEET


POSSIBLE BARRIER JET ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE SIERRA WILL ALSO ACT AS A LOCALIZED PRECIP MAKER AS QPF
RATES DURING THE PEAK OF THE STORM COULD REACH UP TO ONE INCH PER
HOUR AND POSSIBLE SNOW FALL RATES OF UP TO 6 TO 10 INCHES PER HOUR
Good evening ladies/gents...

Hehe finally I have a blog... Link

The link above will take you to my blog where you can gain access to the UTC Clock. Here's the direct link...Link

Not quite talking about Wx updates yet... but introducing a little application I developed for you guys, which of course I use too. :P

Next version will have actual Forecast Models init times and such.

Comments, suggestions, etc... always welcomed.

I'll be heading out for the night... have a nice evening.

NOTE: I'm not evil... so it won't have any viruses. Of course the program is free, and like any other program... use it at your own risk. Hehe... read the fine print on any product and they'll basically tell you the same thing.
Hey STL - I've stood on the top of the peak behind my cabin in 90 - 100 mph winds, there's a picture on my blog page showing us trying to ski down in that stuff but Taz doesn't live anywhere near those places where the wind would blow that fast. He'd have to drive to the snow gate up near Strawberry, then snowmobile to the top of sonora pass, another 30 miles up the road, then up Leavitt Peak or Sonora Peak to get winds like that.
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning #17
03:00 AM UTC October 8 2008
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Norbert (970 hPa) located at 15.7N 109.0W or 435 NM south of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico has sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts up to 105 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-northwest at 9 knots.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT.

Hurricane-Force Winds
=======================
30 NM from the center

Storm-Force Winds
================
95 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 16.9N 111.5W - 110 knots (SSHS-3 CYCLONE)
48 HRS: 19.1N 113.4W - 105 knots (SSHS-3 CYCLONE)
72 HRS: 22.5N 113.0W - 95 knots (SSHS-3 CYCLONE)
look how strong Norbert is geting raw T # is up too 6.3 right now



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2008 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 15:25:55 N Lon : 108:46:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 979.9mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.6 4.9 6.3
we call those "10 year days" or "2 snowboarder days" for fairly obvious reasons.
the raw T # this went up too 6.5


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2008 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 15:33:00 N Lon : 108:56:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 976.2mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.8 6.3 6.5
I recall Feb 23, 1998 being a 10 year day at Sierra Ski Ranch. It was epic! Snorkeling powder, up to your armpits!


Norbert has quite a form.
^HSI Hang Seng 15,843.11 Oct 7 Down 960.65 (5.72%)
norbert looks like it has a #9 on it lol
285. Enola
Quoting msphar:
Taz is in the foothills of the Sierra, if he ever gets a hurricane, it'll be the end of the world as you know it.

ROFL! Yep, that's why I like Colorado. If California falls off, and the rift in the Midwest lets loose, we'll still be relatively ok. Heck, we may even have beachfront property. No worries, Orca. Won't build on a sandbar. ;)
286. JRRP

see you later
raw T # is up too 6.6



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2008 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 15:34:05 N Lon : 109:00:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 970.6mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.1 6.3 6.6
Mercury upclose and personal: http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap081008.html
Good night everyone.. be nice
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Quoting btwntx08:
norbert looks like it has a #9 on it lol


Must be Love Potion #9.

Sorry. I had to.

Just dropping in for a sec waiting for holdout child to go to sleep. ;)
Night, Orca
Dvorak Intensity should be 6.0 now from the SSD
twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu

anyone know what happened to this website?

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu

anyone know what happened to this website?



Server down, maybe?
Man Norbert is really putting on the show.....im now wondering if the Western Caribbean will crank up like the EPAC currently is doing with all those Lows spinning up

www.osu.edu is still up, as is sbs.osu.edu ... not sure where Twister went.
Quoting DeerfieldBeachGuy:
Man Norbert is really putting on the show.....im now wondering if the Western Caribbean will crank up like the EPAC currently is doing with all those Lows spinning up



I really hope not... we've spent enough of this season on pins and needles!
Holdout child is asleep, thank goodness!

Good night.
296. LeopardMoth 5:17 AM GMT on October 08, 2008
www.osu.edu is still up, as is sbs.osu.edu ... not sure where Twister went

---
hmm that is odd, it has been offline for nearly a week now.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE (FINAL)
06:30 AM UTC October 8 2008
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather (1007 hPa) located at 14.0S 70.0E has 10 minutes sustained winds of 15 knots and is reported as moving west-southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.1S 69.2E - 15 knots (se Comblant)


Additional Information
========================

Pattern has deteriorated since yesterday with a totally exposed low level center localized at more then 70 NM from the northwestern edge of the convective mass. Quikscat swath of this morning shows some weak winds near the center in 5-15 knot range. They reach 20-25 knots in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient with the subtropical ridge

As sea surface temperatures are under 26C threshold south of 13S and the environmental conditions are marginally favorable, this low has quasi no potential for significant strengthening. However it should go on dissipating within the next few days as it track west-southwestward or southwestward ove the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge.

Marcarengnes Island should be interested by a more unstable air mass associated with the remnants of this system, starting from Thursday for Rodriques Island and from Frida for Maurice/Reunion area.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM FROM THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.
Tropical Cyclone Warning #18 (0900z 08OCT)
=========================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Norbert (960 hPa) located at 16.1N 110.0W or 410 NM south of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico has sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts up to 120 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-northwest at 9 knots.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT.

Hurricane-Force Winds
=======================
30 NM from the center

Storm-Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 17.5N 112.3W - 115 knots (SSHS-4 CYCLONE)
48 HRS: 20.0N 113.5W - 100 knots (SSHS-3 CYCLONE)
72 HRS: 24.0N 112.5W - 95 knots (SSHS-3 CYCLONE)
Good Morning everyone
Get those coffee pots on !
304. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

53 days
18 hours
53 minutes
214 GFS and NOGAPS model runs.....
and it's over in the Atlantic.
Norbert is a Major Hurricane this is only their second one.
Norbert will be cat 4 l8ter today or tomorrow! waiting for it's landfall this weekend down here.
307. KBH
anyone got info on that system to the south west of the caribbean? looks like the small islands heading for a sandwich..
309. Enola
Does anyone know when western US states were last impacted by the remnants of a hurricane?
Quoting Enola:
Does anyone know when western US states were last impacted by the remnants of a hurricane?


earlier this year
Good morning....
Quoting Enola:
Does anyone know when western US states were last impacted by the remnants of a hurricane?
How far west? NM got some serious aftereffects from Dolly earlier this year, as it moved up the Rio Grande Valley. IIRC, a couple of the EPac storms last season moved into the AZ area as remnant lows.
Before I go, meet Norbert:

314. Enola
Quoting BahaHurican:
How far west? NM got some serious aftereffects from Dolly earlier this year, as it moved up the Rio Grande Valley. IIRC, a couple of the EPac storms last season moved into the AZ area as remnant lows.

Good morning, Baha! These models show Norbert coming right up the western part of the Midwest:



I was just wondering if there has been a recent storm that affected these areas. Dolly does come to mind for NM.
Quoting Enola:

Good morning, Baha! These models show Norbert coming right up the western part of the Midwest:



I was just wondering if there has been a recent storm that affected these areas. Dolly does come to mind for NM.


there was a storm that did it this year and merged with Gustav over the midwest and pounded the NE
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Norbert is huge! I'm thinking this could become a cat. 3.

A little prophetic?
317. Enola
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


there was a storm that did it this year and merged with Gustav over the midwest and pounded the NE

Thanks Thundercloud, just wanted to check on this a bit more.
Interesting next week... 00Z ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC starting to shape up.

Forecasting a more summer like setup and with a rather strong High building on the E CONUS to W ATL Ocean... couple with a developing low in the W to NW Carib. could potentially bring quite a bit of wind to FL.

There are indications that there could be a small low pressue developing E of GA and moving it W or WSW in front of the wind surge.

Of course the low in the W Carib will need to be watch since if it develops more in the NW Carib. it could become a threat for FL... due to this time of the year.
Good morning all...
Quoting BeanTech:
Good morning all...



good morning
now don't everyone talk at once

Thundercloud - well you are certainly the bearer of "news" this AM -- I'm listening to Jimmy Buffet trying to distract myself from all the bedlam --

Financial storm is as crazy as the 'cane season we've had here - NO Rules - strange times
Good morning Beantech - Still humming Electric Storm - nicest surprise I have received in a long time.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
now don't everyone talk at once



we're choking on our coffee
Dr. Masters,
Thank you for this informative Blog.
Please note that 0.3 is not on a scale from 1 to 6.
seems like a piece of marco wants to move up the mex gulf coast
Quoting GeorgefromLosCabos:
Norbert will be cat 4 l8ter today or tomorrow! waiting for it's landfall this weekend down here.


Good luck--Norbert looks bad. Hunker down and stay safe.
Hi Mom...

I suppose I could put up another video...since we seem to be "slow" again!

I'm waiting for my coffee to kick in...
Well seeing how the blog is quiet.

Patrap et al - you people are an absolute inspiration. It is simply uplifting to hear of people like yourselves going the whole hog for others. All power to you all and a big hat tip to all involved - absolutely excellent!!!!!
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
BREAKING NEWS Dow Futures down over 2% or 200 points Expected to plummet today.

BREAKING NEWS Asian Markets fall >9% today or over 900 points

BREAKING NEWS European Markets are down 5% already today

BREAKING NEWS Markets Could fall as much as 15% today


these are all articles or news stations this morning
And AIG execs were at a 1/2 million dollar getaway and didn't even say thank you. I swear I am thinking class action lawsuit. Could all the tornados, hurricanes, earthquakes and wildfires just target these guys?

But then too FEMA would be there in a sec with caviar and champaign.
332. Enola
Quoting biff4ugo:

Please note that 0.3 is not on a scale from 1 to 6.

Remember Heinlein's "Sixth Column"? Just apply a little fancy mathematics...

""I tried looking over some of their work sheets. I can do simple algebra, and I've had some calculus, though I haven't used it for years, but I couldn't make sense out of this stuff. It looked like Sanskrit; most of the signs were different, and even the old ones didn't seem to mean the same things. Look-I thought that a times b always equaled b times a."
"Doesn't it?"
"Not when these boys get through kicking it around..
.." (Ardmore & Thomas speaking together)

I just made the second pot of coffee -- wish I could mainline it this morning.

Good Morning The Mom! Yeaa - wouldn't I love to have "the company" give me a Spa Week.....I am working harder then I have ever worked in my life--just thinking of some BarbieDoll w/Nanny & Maid, etc getting her tootsies painted & body salt scrubbed because of her "high stress" job -- really puts me off.... although it seems a reality check is in the future hee, hee hee - sinister laugh
Good morning everyone. The BLOG is slow today. Norbert has a very impresive shape this morning. Heading toward the SW states
Norbert is impressive -- relieved I'm not seeing his face in the belly of the gulf..... yet it is very concerning seeing him cross that sliver of a peninsula - Baja -
Quoting surfmom:
Norbert is impressive -- relieved I'm not seeing his face in the belly of the gulf..... yet it is very concerning seeing him cross that sliver of a peninsula - Baja -


Hmm. This is getting to be a worrying trend.

My house contains 5 cats. (I guess having 5 cats is bad enough considering if you swap it around; Cat 5. Why we have five is a different matter altogether, none belong to me personally). Dave (Or David) and Cleo, have already been retired. And now, we have Norbert, our Persian, also a major.

Let's hope on that trend that my other 2 don't end up as hurricane names either...
08/0645 UTC 13.9N 33.0W T1.5/1.5 IN1 -- Atlantic Ocean


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 08 2008

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 15N WITH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. SMALL LOW LEVEL SWIRL
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WITH CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 35W-37W.


jo
336. wow...what are the other two cats' names? LOL
What are the odds of that..in one household LOL
QS OF SURFACE LOW NEAR 12n 37w


QSof the surface low near 12N 37WLink
Quoting surfmom:
What are the odds of that..in one household LOL


It gets worse.

In addition, two in my family are called... Allen and Emily (Albeit spelt differently). Two Cat 5s too, haha.

Quoting pearlandaggie:
336. wow...what are the other two cats' names? LOL


Jethro and Dobbie. I imagine Dobbie (Being the House Elf and all) won't come up, but perhaps a Jeffrey/Geoffrey in future?

If we do... run for your lives! Lol!
342. i don't see the storm naming commission getting to Hurricane Jethro anytime soon! LOL
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

53 days
18 hours
53 minutes
214 GFS and NOGAPS model runs.....
and it's over in the Atlantic.



Lurker Ike?????????
08/1145 UTC 14.4N 33.9W T1.0/1.5 IN1 -- Atlantic Ocean

jo
Hey Ike - WU mail
Good Morning everyone :)
Quoting biff4ugo:
Dr. Masters,
Thank you for this informative Blog.
Please note that 0.3 is not on a scale from 1 to 6.


That may be the point he was trying to make that they had to go below the scale for that storm.
Quoting HurricaneKing:


That may be the point he was trying to make that they had to go below the scale for that storm.

Math.. morning coffee.. does not compute
im watching the old ull near near honduras looks suspicious these systems develop in many ways
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
TD ... MARCO
Present Satellite picture ... BOC
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
Present Satellite picture Large overall Coverage
CMC ... Western Caribbean & BOC flaring up(Hour 30)
CMC ... Southern PR, Atlantic (Hour 114)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 180)
CMC 00Z..
*********Special Additions*********
Hurricane Norbert ... Tracks & Cones
Hurricane Norbert ... Satellite picture
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
The European Markets recovered over 200 points from 170 down to just up within about 15 minutes because of the feds reducing interest rates but the market is falling faster then it went up

I've got to believe there are other blogs here discussing the current financial state of affairs. If I want to read about them, I'll find them. And..before you say, "the blog is slow, so what?", I really don't care if the blog is slow. Dr. Masters isn't talking about it in his summary, so it's not topical, either. I don't come here to read about finance.
Quoting Cotillion:


Jethro and Dobbie. I imagine Dobbie (Being the House Elf and all) won't come up, but perhaps a Jeffrey/Geoffrey in future?

If we do... run for your lives! Lol!
I'm scared! Hope Norbet doesn't continue his growth he is not looking good for Baja. Do we have any updates on the monster head that was about to munch on PR?
Quoting surfmom:
I just made the second pot of coffee -- wish I could mainline it this morning.

Good Morning The Mom! Yeaa - wouldn't I love to have "the company" give me a Spa Week.....I am working harder then I have ever worked in my life--just thinking of some BarbieDoll w/Nanny & Maid, etc getting her tootsies painted & body salt scrubbed because of her "high stress" job -- really puts me off.... although it seems a reality check is in the future hee, hee hee - sinister laugh


I was the one with the nanny and maid and high stress job having the salt scrub at the spa...now I have chosen the other career...staying home with the kids (kids started calling me by the nanny's name...that was enough for me). Hardest job I ever had...I could use a salt scrub more than ever! I would sell the stocks in order to get one but the stocks aren't worth the paper they're written on right now. Oh well.

Anywho...someone pass me another cup of coffee...
Quoting Greyelf:

You do know that the tropical forces do effect financial markets and the economy of areas hit by the storms right? And that things like 85 billion to AIG and wall street but the "take care of yourself" to storm victims is a bit of a financial and tropical connection. We are not able to help those hardest hit by the crazy storms but can bail out fat cats in suits? There is a connection.
Quoting TheMom:
You do know that the tropical forces do effect financial markets and teh economy of areas hit by the storms right? And that things like 85 billion to AIG and wall street but the "take care of yourself" to storm victims is a bit of a financial and tropical connection. We are not able to help those hardest hit by the crazy storms but can bail out fat cats in suits? There is a connection.

Yeah, and a butterfly just flew over in Japan. Eventually that'll turn into a hurricane here. That's topical too, eh?

The point I'm making is that if you want to talk the financial slant of all of this, please go to a financial blog on this weather site. You can talk it until you're blue in the face there. It ain't gonna change what's gonna happen in Washington.
My money is on Mom taking him out in the third round.
Quoting Orcasystems:
My money is on Mom taking him out in the third round.


I'll put some money on her also! You go TheMom!
Quoting Greyelf:

Yeah, and a butterfly just flew over in Japan. Eventually that'll turn into a hurricane here.
I'm pretty sure that is Chaos Theory whereas Gulf storm hits from Katrina to now have in fact allowed a profit esculation (legalized price gouging) in oil processing which has lead to higher costs for economic nessesities causeing companies to fold or downsize thus reducing the revenue being put back into the market place. Direct linage rather than Chaos Theroy... diffrence.
Quoting Orcasystems:
My money is on Mom taking him out in the third round.


Why would you say that? Is it so wrong of me to want to read weather related items versus financial items in a weather blog?
Link to Moonlightcowboy's blog.

You can yack about this till you turn blue over there.
Quoting Orcasystems:
My money is on Mom taking him out in the third round.
Quoting Orcasystems:
My money is on Mom taking him out in the third round.


Quoting Orcasystems:
My money is on Mom taking him out in the third round.

It is a battle of insight and intellegence, and both are unarmed.
What is that?!?!? guys, look at the Eastern Caribbean!!
deleted


Quoting stormmaven:



It is a battle of insight and intellegence, and both are unarmed.
MBA with concentration in International Economics... What you got?
Quoting TheTracker08:
What is that?!?!? guys, look at the Eastern Caribbean!!

You mean this one?


Click to enlarge
Quoting Orcasystems:

You mean this one?


Click to enlarge
Is that the "monsterhead" cloud of yesterday?
368. Vero1
Another Tropical Wave "Bites" the Dust.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 08 2008


TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE
IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY DUE TO THE AFRICAN DUST THAT
HAS COME OFF COAST COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-23N E OF 30W. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
Quoting TheMom:
Is that the "monsterhead" cloud of yesterday?


Nope..its still out there also. NE of PR



Click to enlarge
Quoting Vero1:
Another Tropical Wave "Bites" the Dust.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 08 2008


TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE
IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY DUE TO THE AFRICAN DUST THAT
HAS COME OFF COAST COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-23N E OF 30W. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
Good news.
yes, but look at the rainbow satellite!! linkhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg :
Looks loose but with some fold over on the north side is that circulation trying to form?
HMMMM... watch and see!
Quoting TheMom:
Looks loose but with some fold over on the north side is that circulation trying to form?


Out that way, I would still be more worried by these ones

375. Vero1
Quoting TheTracker08:
yes, but look at the rainbow satellite!! linkhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg :


CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC DIPS S
JUST OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM THE PUERTO RICO TO
HISPANIOLA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA E OF 81W TO ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH AN ABUNDANCE
OF TROPICAL MOIST AIR ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OVER THE ABC ISLANDS.
new blog
old blog retired back to lurking Ike