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Mid-Atlantic Braces for Potentially Epic Blizzard

By: Bob Henson 7:53 AM GMT on January 20, 2016

For an event still several days out, computer models were in remarkable agreement late Tuesday on what could be one of the greatest snowstorms in decades for the region around Washington, D.C. It’s difficult to convey what the models are projecting without appearing to sensationalize the event, but here goes: there is every indication that snow totals on the order of two feet are quite possible across parts of the greater D.C./Baltimore area, with the potential for almost as much in Philadelphia and perhaps a foot toward New York City. Anything over 20” at Washington National Airport would be the greatest snowfall for D.C.’s official reporting station in almost a century (see below).

Although it’s too soon to get too precise about exact amounts and locations, confidence is uncommonly high for a high-impact event in the mid-Atlantic. The 0Z Wednesday run of the GFS doubled down on the prognosis, with projected snowfall amounts exceeding 30” within commuting distance of the district (see Figure 1). As a group, the ensemble members with this GFS run weren’t quite as bullish, but as noted by Capital Weather Gang, the ensemble average still projects a widespread 20” or more over much of the D.C. area. At this writing, the 0Z operational run of the ECMWF model was just coming in, and it appeared just as compelling as the GFS output below in terms of a potential record-breaking storm for the D.C. area.


Figure 1. Snowfall totals generated by the 0Z Wednesday operational run of the GFS model for the period from 0Z Wednesday (7:00 pm EST Tuesday) to 0Z Monday (7:00 pm EST Sunday). Amounts are calculated by assuming a 10:1 ratio of snow to melted water; the actual ratio can vary significantly from place to place within a storm. Keep in mind that forecasters rely on the output from a wide range of models and their trends over time before making specific snowfall predictions. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.


The making of a winter blockbuster
The impetus for the storm is an upper-level impulse that was moving into the Pacific Northwest late Tuesday. The jet-stream energy will sweep across the mid-South on Thursday into Friday, helping produce a quick shot of snow and ice for parts of Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Snow could begin as soon as midday Friday ahead of this impulse over the D.C. area. Then, as the jet-stream energy carves out a powerhouse upper low, a surface cyclone should intensify on Saturday off the Virginia coast--a prime location for big mid-Atlantic snowstorms. In classic fashion, the low-level cyclone will funnel warm, moist air from the tropical Atlantic into the region, with the air mass cooling and generating snow as it rises.

The storm’s expected evolution is “textbook,” said NOAA’s Paul Kocin in an NWS forecast discussion on Tuesday. Kocin would know: he literally wrote the book on the subject with NWS director Louis Uccellini, the classic two-volume ”Northeast Snowstorms”.

There are many failure modes for big mid-Atlantic snowstorms. For example, warm air wrapping around the surface cyclone can turn the snow to rain or sleet, or a dry slot can develop south of the surface low--and of course, the location of key features can shift. At least for the time being, the model depictions are threading the needle around these frequent storm-killers, keeping alive the possibility of a once-in-a-generation event for at least some areas. Snow could fall more or less continuously for an unusually long span of 36 hours or more, heightening the chance of big accumulations.

A serious flood threat for the mid-Atlantic coast
There is more than snow in the works with this storm. The ferocious dynamics at play during the storm’s height could produce winds of 40-50 mph or more, which would lead to blizzard conditions and huge drifts. On top of that, strong onshore winds may produce waves up to 20 feet and major coastal flooding, especially from New Jersey to the Delmarva Peninsula. The full moon on Saturday will only add to the risk of significant flood impacts. In addition, sea-surface temperatures running 5 - 7°F above average should keep the offshore surface air relatively warm, allowing strong winds aloft to mix to the surface more readily than usual for a midwinter nor’easter, as noted by the NWS/Philadelphia office in a weather discussion on Tuesday night. The risk of damaging coastal flooding will need to be watched with the same vigilance as the potential for crippling snowfall just inland.


Figure 2. D.C.'s top 1-, 2-, and 3-day winter storms, plotted by total snow amount and year. Image credit: NWS/Baltimore-Washington.


What are D.C.’s biggest storms on record?
Among the largest East Coast cities, models are suggesting that Washington has the best shot at a potential record storm. Only one storm since D.C. records began in 1884 has managed to rack up more than 20”, whereas Baltimore has had eight such storms and Dulles four. See the statistics page put together by NWS/Baltimore-Washington for more details.

Top five D.C. snowstorms over periods of up to 3 days
28” (Jan. 27-29, 1922)
20” (Feb. 12-14, 1899)
18.7” (Feb. 18-19, 1979)
17.8 (Feb. 5-6, 2010)
17.1” (Jan. 6-8, 1996)

As this storm approaches, the NWS/Baltimore-Washington office will provide experimental snowfall guidance in the form of maps and tables with detailed probabilities of exceeding various snow-amount thresholds. We can expect to see more of this type of guidance in the future; although it offers a lot of detail to parse, it provides a much richer guide to both the high- and low-end possibilities. For a reliable source of frequently updated, hyper-local coverage, you can’t beat Capital Weather Gang. Though it’s too soon to know exactly how this storm will behave, it’s not too soon to begin common-sense preparations if you’re anywhere in or near the target area.

Jeff and I will have a post Wednesday evening on the NASA/NOAA climate report for 2015, and I’ll have more on the looming East Coast storm on Thursday.

Bob Henson





Blizzard Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Bob!
Ya know Dr. Masters if it weren't that your style of writing and Mr. Henson's way of posting information where not so magnificent!!! in drawing vivid pictures in ones thought i'd ask you stop AM posts. Why? Every time an AM blogbyte is alerted to by WxU auto-bot i think its an end of the world post. 

GOING TO POP SOME POPCORN BAG ...

(its NYC i just fall out of the bed and fall into a 24 hr. store that has SMARTFODD POPCORN or "XOCHiTL Totopos de maiz" (Organic style corn chips, only XOCHiTL this is really GMOS free)

...has AND READ THE BLOGBYTE.

WOW storms to the left and storms to the right, both STS-east & STS-west (hurricanejoe) will be reporting, i luv when locals report one gets a more accurate reading plus it lets kids know that observing and learning is cool.

Thank your for the very early morning update, Bob, and good luck, folks!
Thanks Mr. Henson! Yes indeed this is looking truly epic.
06z GFS again hammers the region.
Good morning Bob and the rest of the gang that might happen to be awake at this ungodly hour. I have no idea why I'm awake other than I guess my body thinks it got enough sleep. My brain doesn't agree with my body, but there seems to be a communication problem between those two from time to time. :-)

The latest model runs have all shifted the low about 100 miles or so further south. The 18z Tuesday had the low up at the AL/TN/GA intersection. The 06z Wednesday models have the low firmly in north central MS and AL as it moves east. This is true for both the GFS and ECMWF. The shift of the low south has been apparent for the last four model runs. The current GFS also has the low hanging around MS/AL about six hours longer than it did. The low also exits into the Atlantic near the GA/SC border instead of further north at the SC/NC border. The low also doesn't move as far north as it did, and it begins a turn out to sea about six hours sooner than it did previously.

All this has some implications for the Southeast first. There's a higher risk for severe thunderstorms and maybe a tornado or two from Louisiana over to MIssissippi Thursday afternoon, and a lesser but non-zero risk of the same in the Panhandle and south Alabama Friday morning. This does not look like the kind of setup where peninsular Florida is at any risk for severe storms. The low may still be far enough north so all that happens there is some rain, although shifts further south may change that outlook somewhat.

The more southern route of the low will also cause the cold air coming down with the front to be here a little earlier in relation to the low and last a little longer as the low continues east. That means the chances of sleet, ice, and snow are greater than yesterday at this time. The increased likelihood of frozen stuff has now moved south to about north central MS and AL as well as northern GA. Once you get into the northern sections of those states and the Tennessee Valley, almost all the precipitation for about 12 hours, and maybe longer into Saturday morning, should be all snow. This is going to cause a significant snowfall for those areas, with widespread traffic and airline disruptions. The airline disruptions will spread north as the storm progresses, with the potential of crippling shutdowns of air travel for the weekend.

As far as snow totals further north, I don't make those kinds of predictions, since I'm almost always wrong. If the low follows the path currently depicted, the snow totals from Philly north, while still being a no-kidding winter storm, might not be the doom predictions I've seen. From Maryland south there's still going to be a lot of snow, less at the coast and much more in the highlands and mountains inland. West Virginia is likely to be particularly hard hit. When the low turns out to sea, and at what location it makes the turn, will be a major determinant in snow for the mid-Atlantic states. The same would be true in the mountains of North Carolina.

A very dynamic four days ahead, and I expect to see the fine details shift right up until about the time it starts snowing/raining. I'm just a rank amateur, so don't take anything I write as a forecast to be used in place of your NWS forecasts. This is worth exactly what you've paid to read it - nothing to not much. 8-0
Went to sleep with 38 degrees awoke with 48F.
Quoting 3. barbamz:


Thank your for the very early morning update, Bob, and good luck, folks!


My second story window!
Quoting 2. vis0:

Ya know Dr. Masters if it weren't that your style of writing and Mr. Henson's way of posting information where not so magnificent!!! in drawing vivid pictures in ones thought i'd ask you stop AM posts. Why? Every time an AM blogbyte is alerted to by WxU auto-bot i think its an end of the world post. 

GOING TO POP SOME POPCORN BAG ...

(its NYC i just fall out of the bed and fall into a 24 hr. store that has SMARTFODD POPCORN or "XOCHiTL Totopos de maiz" (Organic style corn chips, only XOCHiTL this is really GMOS free)

...has AND READ THE BLOGBYTE.

WOW storms to the left and storms to the right, both STS-east & STS-west (hurricanejoe) will be reporting, i luv when locals report one gets a more accurate reading plus it lets kids know that observing and learning is cool.
Yeah, and at least a lot of the owners of those little bodegas live above their stores, so there's a lot better chance of them being open when the staff only has to walk downstairs compared to waiting for the roads to be plowed. If you buy the non-microwave variety of popcorn, you can get fresh popcorn as long as the regular range or the Coleman stove is still functioning. That reminds me, I need to get the Coleman out of storage and test it, since those leather seals do dry out. My range is electric, so it's not going to cook anything if the power goes out.
Looks like the 06z GFS has lowered the totals around the DC area from insane to just crazy.
Quoting 10. 1Zach1:

Looks like the 06z GFS has lowered the totals around the DC area from insane to just crazy.


It went from what to what?
Quoting 7. PensacolaDoug:

Went to sleep with 38 degrees awoke with 48F.
48 in Mobile also as you're firmly in the warm air advection. It hasn't hit here yet, with a temperature of 31 after a low of 28. The warmer air should get here later this morning. I never get as far into the warm as you until tonight and tomorrow, so my high today will only be about 56 compared to your 65. Might make it near 70 tomorrow if we get some sun.
On the news a bit ago, the on-air met showed potential snowfall graphics of both the Euro and the GFS, with their concentric bands of color spreading up and down the mid-Atlantic, with a large dark and angry crimson area centered over Washington DC. Alarming, to say the least. I was both pleased and surprised, however, to see a large, bright red box at the top of the maps stating in bold, can't-miss-'em letters:
THIS IS NOT A FORECAST
The met even verbally reiterated that point at least once. It was refreshing to see such seldom-used restraint. And it made me wish we could see a little more of that here in this forum, for whether it's snowfall or rainfall or tropical storms, too many here have repeatedly confused model runs with forecasts, leading to confusion and anger and even, oddly enough, disappointment when a model "busts" and a particular area fails to see the extreme weather those models had earlier hinted at. So as you go through the day, keep this in mind:

Model =/= forecast
Quoting 11. vdb0422:



It went from what to what?
00z had a large area around DC into central VA of upper 30"-45". Now that large section has been moved east and slightly north and the totals have been lowered to the upper 20's.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
331 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THERE IS A HIGH THREAT FOR
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY BEFORE
TURNING UP THE EAST COAST REACHING CAPE HATTERAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. GULF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO A WELL
BELOW FREEZING COLUMN. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SW LATE FRIDAY MORNING. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ONSET
OF SNOW INTO THE CWA. SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER GA AND HIGH PRESSURE GETS
PUSHED OUT TO SEA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.
AT THIS TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF GREATER THAN A FOOT IS LIKELY
HOWEVER THERE ARE DETAILS THAT ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND THEY
INCLUDE 1. WHERE THE NRN FRINGE WILL BE 2. BANDING POTENTIAL 3.
MIXED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

ONCE THE SFC LOW IS NEAR CAPE HATTERAS/MID-ATLANTIC. STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO CAUSE WORSENING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO FORECASTS FOR UPDATES THIS WEEK ABOUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
TN VALLEY FRI NIGHT WILL TRAVERSE THE APPALACHIANS SAT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN MID ATLC STATES SAT NIGHT. DEEPENING SFC LOW PRES
EXPECTED OFF OF THE SC COAST FRI EVENING WILL MOVE TO NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS BY 12Z SAT AND SLOWLY OUT TO SEA SAT BASED ON THE 00Z
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. STRONG COLD CONVEYOR BELT EXPECTED
TO POUND THE MID ATLC AND DELMARVA FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH
HEAVY SNOWS...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE 00Z GFS SEEMS
AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
SHOWING A MORE INTENSE LOW THAT MOVES WESTWARD/INLAND AND KEEPS
POUNDING THE LOCAL AREA FOR 12 HRS LONGER THROUGH SUN. THE 00Z
GEFS MEAN AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECWMF HAVE A LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE
BY 12Z SUN. BASED ON ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ONE TO TWO
FEET OF SNOW APPEAR HIGHLY LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF TWO FEET OR MORE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-66. GIVEN THAT SOME GUIDANCE HOLDS THE PRECIP
UNTIL MIDDAY FRI AND NO OFFICES TO THE SOUTH ARE ISSUING A WATCH
AT THIS TIME...NO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME BUT WOULD
EXPECT ONE TO BE ISSUED BY MIDDAY TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.
should put the stamp "this is just a forecast" on these global warming post. brr day 3 e cen florida
Quoting 16. islander101010:

should put the stamp "this is just a forecast" on these global warming post. brr day 3 e cen florida
lol its 39 here by me right now..20's to my north..no GW here LOL
QPFs yesterday looked much too wet, looks like they're getting a bit more sane. 33"+ seemed a bit unbelievable.
Thanks for the update Bob!
Hoping for a GULF COASTAL snowfall ! Bring it on - further south!
0Z Euro continued its southward trend overnight and puts FL @ risk for what could be a damaging wind event on Friday with any thunderstorms that form. No veering of the winds though which means tornado risk is very low but damaging wind gust might be a concern again.

Quoting 20. Stormwatch247:

Hoping for a GULF COASTAL snowfall ! Bring it on - further south!
The chances of anything frozen on the Gulf Coast in the next five days is a close to zero as you can get with any remaining chance just for CYA. We have more to worry about with the possibility of severe storms tomorrow and Friday than we do snow. Maybe next time...
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA IS JUST
COMING OVER THE ROCKIES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DIG SOUTH, WHILE IT DEEPENS TOMORROW. BY THURSDAY MORNING, IT WILL
BE OVER EASTERN TEXAS, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY NORTH TO SOUTH
WISE. BUT, IT LOOKS TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST, AND REACH TO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL THE BE OVER
NORTHERN LOUISIANA, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF.

AS THE LOW TREKS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT, THE WIND WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS LOW
DOES TRACK MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ONE A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE BETTER DYNAMICS FURTHER NORTH OF THE CWA, REDUCING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME STRONG
WIND IN THE JET, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF DIVERGENCE OVER THE CWA. ALSO, AT 850, THERE IS A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KTS IN THE AREA. FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS TO HAVE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, INHIBITING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. SO, WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY WILL
OCCUR, THEY WILL NOT BE ANYTHING LIKE WE SAW THIS PAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THEIR MOVEMENT SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS AS WELL. HOWEVER, WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT, IT COULD STILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTY WIND.
THE HELICITY LOOKS TO BE AT 100 M^2*2SEC^-2, REDUCING THE ANY
TORNADIC THREAT FOR THE AREA. OF COURSE, AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS,
MODELS COULD POTENTIALLY CHANGE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, NOT
LOOKING LIKE A SYSTEM TO RAISE ANY SERIOUS RED FLAGS OVER LIKE THE
LAST COUPLE OF SYSTEMS HAVE.

Link
Quite a shift of heavier snow inland.

I wonder how southern IL did last night with the snows, right before I went to bed I noticed the wave orientated fairly well to the north in comparison to forecasted track, woke up to just under 4" of snow. Brings me to 7"for the season, which is less than < 30% of what we see for a typical winter, but on par for an El Nino season.

I live in Pasadena Maryland, somewhat in between Baltimore and Annapolis. How much snow should I expect?
Quoting 26. Grothar:

Quite a shift of heavier snow inland.



My Great Grandmother always said when it comes from the south we [the Mid Atlantic] always get it bad. Also, I've noticed, the snowfall totals are never accurate here. We either get more or a bust.
System in center should be the the one.



This system might be round 2



Quoting 451. washingtonian115:


"Precip looks to be in the 3 to 4 inch range on the 18z GFS Para. That's up to hr 102, with another couple hours to go (that's as far as the model is out to at the moment). Like I said, monster hit."


If you look closely, you can see a little white blip at the southeastern corner of NC, that's me. This Jonas guy hates us.
On my favorite world-weather map (following GFS) you can see the blizzard unfold (blue=rain; purple=snow). Click "Animation":
http://www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de/GM/rain snow_01.htm

Same animated map for gales shows the development of the tropical cyclone in the South-Indian Ocean:
http://www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de/GM/wind 000_01.htm
My WeatherUnderground forecast, based on my zip code, calls for 8-12 inches of ice pellets.

I would say "WTF?" but during a previous tour of duty in the great state of Maryland, we got about 8-12 inches of little, round, wet, heavy "ice pellets".

It's way more epic than snow, not.
still many questions

Quoting 6. sar2401:

When the low turns out to sea, and at what location it makes the turn, will be a major determinant in snow for the mid-Atlantic states. The same would be true in the mountains of North Carolina.


Not detrimental to this season's skiing...but over a foot of snow is almost a guarantee for the Blue Ridge Mtns at this point. In fact it's supposed to snow some there tonight.
Good Morning..

If it don't snow for some folks here it might just be WWIII up in this piece..

Allan Huffman %u200F@RaleighWx 15m15 minutes ago

Overnight we continued to see a southward shift to the major synoptic features with this event. The ECMWF remained the most extreme in NC.


Something for the short term..



Work calls..Later
Quoting 29. Articuno:

I live in Pasadena Maryland, somewhat in between Baltimore and Annapolis. How much snow should I expect?


As per 06Z GFS... you're looking at ~7.06" (for the period ending on Sat. @ 18Z).
IT'S INTRIGUING THAT SO MANY GEFS MEMBERS ARE SO MUCH LIGHTER WITH THEIR QPF AND FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. WHAT MAY BE HAPPENING HERE IS ANOMALOUSLY WARM WESTERN ATLC SSTS COMBINED WITH A COLD AIRMASS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THE HIGHER RES MODELS COULD BE BETTER SIMULATING THE STATIC STABILITY OVER THE OCEAN AND BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST. HENCE A STRONGER SOLUTION THAN ENSEMBLES.


-NWS BOSTON
We just moved from New Hampshire to the NC coast. Looking like maybe a couple inches of snow here and I'm actually looking forward to maybe seeing how people handle snow here. Could be interesting.
Quoting 39. WxLogic:



As per 06Z GFS... you're looking at ~7.06" (for the period ending on Sat. @ 18Z).


And yesterday it was 3' lol
Reykjavic Iceland 37°F... Nuuk Greenland 52° F. Uh oh! If that's not a typo, it's a serious anomaly and Greenland's glaciers will be melting (as Keeper says) "faster and faster".
Quoting 42. Articuno:



And yesterday it was 3' lol


I was at Ft. Meade, just up the road from you, two tours worth.

Not being an expert, I can say that they normally nail it about 12 hours out. If the storm bobs east or west, totals change significantly.

During the 24" storm of 2000 -- the forecasters took lots of guff because the storm shifted while everyone was asleep. (I wasn't in the area for the 2010 event, and I missed the 96 event due to work in a rather warm place).

Quoting 37. win1gamegiantsplease:



Not detrimental to this season's skiing...but over a foot of snow is almost a guarantee for the Blue Ridge Mtns at this point. In fact it's supposed to snow some there tonight.
Yeah, it's really a difference between a lot of snow and a huge amount of snow. The only fly in the ointment is how far a warm nose extends up into NC. As long as surface temperatures remain below freezing and the ground down to about 4 or 5 inches stays frozen. any switch to rain and/or sleet wouldn't matter much in terms of final accumulation. If temperatures warm to above freezing by tomorrow afternoon. the warm nose could reduce accumulations, but there's no way the skiers aren't going to get a good present out of this storm.

As an aside, no matter how much I try, I still tend to type storm as strom. Thank goodness for Chrome spell check or every post would have that wrong. Does this kind of thing happen to anyone else?
Quoting 46. sar2401:

Yeah, it's really a difference between a lot of snow and a huge amount of snow. The only fly in the ointment is how far a warm nose extends up into NC. As long as surface temperatures remain below freezing and the ground down to about 4 or 5 inches stays frozen. any switch to rain and/or sleet wouldn't matter much in terms of final accumulation. If temperatures warm to above freezing by tomorrow afternoon. the warm nose could reduce accumulations, but there's no way the skiers aren't going to get a good present out of this storm.

As an aside, no matter how much I try, I still tend to type storm as strom. Thank goodness for Chrome spell check or every post would have that wrong. Does this kind of thing happen to anyone else?


Arithmetic. Analytic Geometry. 9+25=36

(uuhh.. nope.. you so want it to be when time is running out on the exam but no its not)
Jason Nicholls ‏@jnmet Jan 19
Latest climate model summary for Nino 3.4. Shows a quick demise of #ElNino over next several months.
Quoting 43. ChiThom:

Reykjavic Iceland 37F... Nuuk Greenland 52 F. Uh oh! If that's not a typo, it's a serious anomaly and Greenland's glaciers will be melting (as Keeper says) "faster and faster".
It's not a typo:





(BBC)

Quoting 29. Articuno:

I live in Pasadena Maryland, somewhat in between Baltimore and Annapolis. How much snow should I expect?


This is a tough one. My standard forecast this far out is "less than a meter". But that's a little questionable this time.

You actually have a shot at some ice pellets or a short period of rain reducing totals but a foot plus seems very likely and 2' is reasonable.

Here in College Park, fewer ice pellets, more snow.
N GA?

Quoting 46. sar2401:

The only fly in the ointment is how far a warm nose extends up into NC.

Yep, that pesky warm nose is going to be the game changer as to who sees a cold rain and who sees a major ice storm. NWS Raleigh has the warm nose causing a changeover to all rain on Friday for the Raleigh metro and eastward, but keeps freezing rain in for Durham, Chapel Hill and the triad. That being said, most everyone in NC will see some winter precip, but the NW Peidmont could be in for a crippling ice storm. Let's hope for no nose and keep it snow!
NAM seems to be keeping the biggest totals to the west of DC.
12Z NAM shifted further south with this upper air feature and is showing decent snows even across N GA. Also shows a risk of severe weather again across FL but mainly in the form of damaging winds.
Quoting 7. PensacolaDoug:

Went to sleep with 38 degrees awoke with 48F.


Return flow, happens all the time in SE TX along the coast. Either clouds move in or winds stir up just enough, or southerly flow winds cause the temp to go up overnight. When I was young I'd always get aggravated by that because I wanted cold weather.
Quoting 54. GeorgiaStormz:

N GA?




Noticeable southward trend the last 24hrs in most of the models. Opening the door for snow even across the Deep South.
Quoting 49. ricderr:




Doesn't seem to get the initialization point right, which is a frequent problem with these charts. Nino 3.4 is around 2.8C right now.
Quoting 46. sar2401:

As an aside, no matter how much I try, I still tend to type storm as strom. Thank goodness for Chrome spell check or every post would have that wrong. Does this kind of thing happen to anyone else?

With every strom, Sar, no joke!
Hmmm... 100 year blizzard shuts down DC for 4 days.. this could be one weather disaster that actually SAVES us billions of dollars.
Experimental shows high-impact, high-confidence:



Quoting 46. sar2401:

As an aside, no matter how much I try, I still tend to type storm as strom. Thank goodness for Chrome spell check or every post would have that wrong. Does this kind of thing happen to anyone else?

Exact same here.
Not my worst systematic typo though. My worst is 'alcolhol' :)
As an aside, no matter how much I try, I still tend to type storm as strom. Thank goodness for Chrome spell check or every post would have that wrong. Does this kind of thing happen to anyone else?

With every strom that froms!
Quoting 60. tampabaymatt:



Doesn't seem to get the initialization point right, which is a frequent problem with these charts. Nino 3.4 is around 2.8C right now.


Models either way show a second peak come February into March. The a quick decline towards neutral begins come Summer.

Its also possible El-Nino albeit weak (El-Nino) re-emerges come Fall. Well see about that as this is the CFSv2 of all things.



Put in a zip code for DC, B'More or nearby and you get an NWS Blizzard Watch.

Game on. :D
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016


DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ 052>057-505-506-
202315-
/O.NEW.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE
95...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW.

* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...STRONGEST WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE
HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL
BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.


* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

USE THIS ADVANCE NOTICE TO PLAN AHEAD! ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS...AND
PLANNED ACTIVITIES. STOCK UP ON NECESSITIES. MAKE PLANS FOR
ELDERLY FAMILY AND THOSE MOST AT RISK. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS. USE THIS TIME TO
MINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU...YOUR FAMILY...AND YOUR COMMUNITY.
Any chance winter storm watches or blizzard watches would be issued sometime today?

Oops, I see it has already....lol
It's 52 F degrees at Nuuk, Greenland , 31 F degrees above average .
Quoting 69. longislander102:

Any chance winter storm watches or blizzard watches would be issued sometime today?


They are out now for DC and B'more.
BLIZZARD WATCH

Quoting 70. RobertWC:

It's 52 F degrees at Nuuk, Greenland , 31 F degrees above average .

See comment #50
While we're focused on the snow, this just in from NOAA:

2015 is Earth's warmest year by widest margin on record;

"During 2015, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.62F (0.90C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all 136 years in the 1880%u20132015 record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.29F (0.16C) and marking the fourth time a global temperature record has been set this century. This is also the largest margin by which the annual global temperature record has been broken. Ten months had record high temperatures for their respective months during the year. The five highest monthly departures from average for any month on record all occurred during 2015."

Blizzard watch up for DC.
a Question if I may....in Global warming, would the Winter storms be more powerful and severe?
Okay, I am counting all of you to tell me that the 12z GFS is keeping the ridiculous heaviest snow amounts south of New York City and Long Island. Thanks!
Quoting 70. RobertWC:

It's 52 F degrees at Nuuk, Greenland , 31 F degrees above average .

its quite nice the cap has a nice spongy feel today
Euro has that LOW coming off the coast just below NJ looks like..........................
Quoting 74. Neapolitan:

While we;re focused on the snow, this just in from NOAA:

015 is Earth's warmest year by widest margin on record;

"During 2015, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.62°F (0.90°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest among all 136 years in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.29°F (0.16°C) and marking the fourth time a global temperature record has been set this century. This is also the largest margin by which the annual global temperature record has been broken. Ten months had record high temperatures for their respective months during the year. The five highest monthly departures from average for any month on record all occurred during 2015."




I believe this was released a week ago? Is there something new to the report or data? Just curious as you referred to the report as being "just in".
it will keep adjusting south until us southcasters get in on the action!!!
Quoting 54. GeorgiaStormz:

N GA?


The models have been showing the snow in north Alabama and north Georgia for a couple of days now. That's really dependent on timing, which is outside accurate forecast parameters right now, and will be until shortly before precipitation begins to fall. The models keep showing between two and six inches from about Birmingham north. That seems too high to me but it just depends on how early we get a changeover. That will be really critical for how much is all snow and how much is freezing rain. No matter how it turns out, it's likely to be a mess.
Quoting 70. RobertWC:

It's 52 F degrees at Nuuk, Greenland , 31 F degrees above average .



Alex brought tropical air mass that way as he plowed into Greenland
gonna be warm a bit over the cap pumping into the high arctic

Model/Region GFS World (7-day) GFS Northern Hemisphere (7-day) GFS Southern Hemisphere (7-day) GFS North America (7-day) GFS Europe (7-day) GFS Asia-Pacific (7-day) GFS Arctic (7-day) NAM-4km United States (48-hour) NAM-4km Alaska (48-hour) NAM-12km U.S. Northeast (51-hour) HRRR U.S. Northeast (15-hour) HRRR U.S. Southeast (15-hour) HRRR U.S. Northwest (15-hour) HRRR U.S. Southwest (15-hour) HRRR U.S. Midwest (15-hour)

Parameter
Air Temperature

Air Temperature Anomaly

Precipitation and Clouds

Precipitable Water

Surface Wind Speed

Jetstream Wind Speed

Mean Sea Level Pressure

Snow Depth

Playback

Link
Climate change fuels bushfire risk as Australia heats up

Firefighters warn they are facing more intense, erratic blazes.

"From my experience, fires appear to be getting more intense, harder to fight, harder to plan for... and this is having an impact on firefighting strategies," Darin Sullivan, a 25-year veteran New South Wales state firefighter, told AFP.

Three of the five hottest years on record in Australia have occurred in the last three years, according to data compiled by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).

In 2013, Australia experienced its warmest year on record, 2014 was the third-hottest while last year was the fifth-warmest.



Read more at: Link
Nice video collection as an apt "warm-up" (or, lol, what term would be right?) for upcoming blizzards:


Quoting 80. tampabaymatt:



I believe this was released a week ago? Is there something new to the report or data? Just curious as you referred to the report as being "just in".

That was the US numbers this is the global report -
Quoting 80. tampabaymatt:



I believe this was released a week ago? Is there something new to the report or data? Just curious as you referred to the report as being "just in".
The report came out today with all the official numbers. There were articles earlier this month with some unofficial numbers.
Quoting 74. Neapolitan:

While we're focused on the snow, this just in from NOAA:
2015 is Earth's warmest year by widest margin on record; ...

That's why we're awaiting a fresh blog soon, see entry:
"Jeff and I will have a post Wednesday evening on the NASA/NOAA climate report for 2015 ..."
Quoting 80. tampabaymatt:



I believe this was released a week ago? Is there something new to the report or data? Just curious as you referred to the report as being "just in".
It was released at 10:30 EST today. I posted at 10:32 EST. That is, I believe, the very definition of "just in".
Quoting 76. LargoFl:

a Question if I may....in Global warming, would the Winter storms be more powerful and severe?


Every storm is moving that way . But as the post says :
In addition, sea-surface temperatures running 5 – 7°F above average
This is the turbo charger on the heat engine.


Good Morning. Just read the early am Blog. Basically a typical El Nino winter low traversing across the South (mid-South in this particular case), then moving towards the Eastern Seaboard on the way toward the NE.

Here are the current charts, jet, and look; looks potentially nasty as the system moves east across Conus:






NASA & NOAA to discuss 2015 temperatures and climatic events at 11am EST

Link

Audio of the briefing as well as supporting graphics will stream live”
a rare Blizzard Watch is now up for the DC reason i say rare has it dos not happen all the time for major city like DC
Quoting 88. sar2401:

The report came out today with all the official numbers. There were articles earlier this month with some unofficial numbers.


I see, thanks for the clarification to you and others who commented.

12z GFS.
Quoting 81. FyrtleMyrtle:

it will keep adjusting south until us southcasters get in on the action!!!
I southcast every year for snow. Lol but don't work. Here in Desrehan La..
Quoting 95. tampabaymatt:



I see, thanks for the clarification to you and others who commented.
You're very welcome. I'm always here to help...
2015 Was Hottest Year in Recorded History, Scientists Say
By JUSTIN GILLISJAN. 20, 2016


Scientists reported Wednesday that 2015 was the hottest year in recorded history by far, breaking a record set only the year before — a burst of heat that has continued into the new year and is roiling weather patterns all over the world.

In the continental United States, the year was the second-warmest on record, punctuated by a December that was both the hottest and the wettest since record-keeping began. One result has been a wave of unusual winter floods coursing down the Mississippi River watershed.

Scientists started predicting a global temperature record months ago, in part because an El Niño weather pattern, one of the largest in a century, is dumping an immense amount of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. But the bulk of the record-setting heat, they say, is a consequence of the long-term planetary warming caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases.

“The whole system is warming up, relentlessly,” said Gerald A. Meehl, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.

It will take a few more years to know for certain, but the back-to-back records of 2014 and 2015 may have put the world back onto a trajectory of rapid global warming, after period of relatively slow warming dating to the last powerful El Niño, in 1998.

Politicians attempting to claim that greenhouse gases are not a problem seized on that slow period to argue that “global warming stopped in 1998” and similar statements, with these claims reappearing recently on the Republican presidential campaign trail.

Statistical analysis suggested all along that the claims were false, and the slowdown was, at most, a minor blip in an inexorable trend, perhaps caused by a temporary increase in the absorption of heat by the Pacific Ocean.

“Is there any evidence for a pause in the long-term global warming rate?” said Gavin A. Schmidt, head of NASA’s climate-science unit, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, in Manhattan. “The answer is no. That was true before last year, but it’s much more obvious now.”

Globally, 2015 was the warmest year in recorded history.


How far above or below average temperatures were in 2015
Compared with the average from 1901 to 2000
–1
+1
+3˚C
N.A.
0
+2
+1˚F
–1.8
0
+1.8
+3.6
+5.4˚F
+.5
Average global surface air temperatures
Compared with the average from 1901 to 2000
0
−.5
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2015
Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
By The New York Times
Continue reading the main story
RELATED COVERAGE


2014 Breaks Heat Record, Challenging Global Warming Skeptics JAN. 16, 2015

Michael E. Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University, calculated that if the global climate were not warming, the odds of setting two back-to-back record years would be remote, about one chance in every 1,500 pairs of years.



Maybe I'm just seeing things but looks like the 12z GFS moved the heavy snow much closer to Charlotte. Two weeks in a row the Panthers playoff pep rally will be rained/snowed out. Hopefully it clears out in time for the game Sunday!
Well that 12z GFS run was fun.
103. ariot
Quoting 76. LargoFl:

a Question if I may....in Global warming, would the Winter storms be more powerful and severe?


It's tough to call, even today.

The best analogies I have heard go something like:

- If a baseball player is on steroids to enhance performance, some, but not all, of his home runs can be attributed to steroids. (Weather influenced by climate)

- If you change the highest numbers on two dice from six to seven, and roll them 1,000 times, you see that the extremes are now greater than previously possible. (Events could be more extreme)

- All of modern civilization has developed during a time of stable climate where the extremes were somewhat known, but if climate goes +1C or +2C, those extremes can become unknown.

- My grandfather's volume went to 10. Mine goes to 12. My grandkids may have a volume that goes to 15.
If this strongly negative AO flips, then another round of severe weather through February and March will likely ensue, increasing into Spring. Could be very bad. If it doesn't flip through February then we'll be in for some more monster snows.
I lived in Falls Church, VA 1994-1997. One of the years we had two snow storms about a week apart with a total amount of 30-35 inches. Cold air persisted creating a long big mess. Don't recognize on Dr. He son's chart above.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016


Excerpt:
LOOKING AT THE TRENDS OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS/QPF
DISTRIBUTION...THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD/SLOWER TREND OF BOTH
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE SNOWFALL OCCURS...WITH A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN VERY HEAVY AND VERY LITTLE SNOW POSSIBLE. RIGHT
NOW...THIS AREA LIES OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.
GEOS-5 00Z run was more south. Good snow dumping for Mid-Atlantic back to TN. Even had a dusting down to Southern MS, but left alot of the NE without..

Quoting 86. barbamz:

Nice video collection as an apt "warm-up" (or, lol, what term would be right?) for upcoming blizzards:



Nice videos. You've got get the plow train up to speed when you're using a wedge plow. The only thing that moves the snow is the force that plow has when it hits the snow, especially drifts. If you're going too slow, the plow eventually stalls, and there's a good chance the plow will derail and come off the tracks. Pretty dramatic scenes, and a couple of the cameramen found why it wasn't a good idea to be standing next to the tracks when a plow goes through.

A rotary plow like what was seen at 1:14 and for a few later scenes, just uses the blades to scoop up the snow and toss it a couple hundred feet to the side of the track. I've seen the snow being thrown in the Sierra with enough force it will knock over pretty good size pine trees. The rotary is slow but sure - as long as the snow isn't deeper than the top of the blades. As the scene with the really deep snow and the rotary showed, the plow can't advance unless those blades are able to throw the snow. Then the plow is stuck until crews can hand shovel the snow so it gets lower than the blades. That sometimes has to be done for hundreds of feet until the plow gets into some less deep snow. That's what happened when Southern Pacific rotaries tried to reach their crack streamliner, City of San Francisco , in January, 1952. The train got trapped by a blizzard with 100 mph winds and 16 foot drifts. Rotary plows trying to reach the train from both directions also got stuck when they reached snow deeper than the blades. The storm lasted six days, and the passengers were finally taken off after three days by a herculean effort by the SP to clear Highway 40. Once they got close enough to the train location they could use ladders from the train to the roadway to take off the passengers and crew. It took another three days to free the plows since they were now frozen to the rails. A combination of army flamethrowers and 500 men with shovels finally freed up the rotaries so they could get to the train and clear the path back down the hill. Mountain railroading in the Sierra was a dangerous activity then, and it still is today.
109. MahFL
Quoting 76. LargoFl:

a Question if I may....in Global warming, would the Winter storms be more powerful and severe?


Everything can be more severe as there is more energy ( heat ) to drive the weather.
Blizzard watches are up and I see the GFS 12z has the bullseye around the DC area.
Quoting 105. NSB207:

I lived in Falls Church, VA 1994-1997. One of the years we had two snow storms about a week apart with a total amount of 30-35 inches. Cold air persisted creating a long big mess. Don't recognize on Dr. He son's chart above.


I live in Fairfax County almost across the river from Woodbridge, VA. I remember those storms. That was, indeed, an unpleasant period of weather. The more main side roads turned into humply-bumply ice. The expressways were somewhat better. Deep neighborhood roads were impassible. Everything was shut down for several days because nearly no one could get anywhere. I do hope it doesn't get that bad. I hope the power stays on though; have an all electric home.
Quoting 97. bayoubug:

I southcast every year for snow. Lol but don't work. Here in Desrehan La..


Doesn't work very good here in Fort Walton Beach, FL either! We did get an ice storm a couple years back that shut the area down for 2 days, that was fun! I would love to see a foot of snow here!
Quoting 101. CarolinaHurricanes87:

Maybe I'm just seeing things but looks like the 12z GFS moved the heavy snow much closer to Charlotte. Two weeks in a row the Panthers playoff pep rally will be rained/snowed out. Hopefully it clears out in time for the game Sunday!
The storm should be long gone Sunday. Should actually be pretty decent by Saturday afternoon, so the pep rally might not be a washout. It will be nippy for the game though, with the temperature being around 45 at game time.
114. MahFL
Seems to be further offshore to me.
168 hrs..


Quoting 113. sar2401:

The storm should be long gone Sunday. Should actually be pretty decent by Saturday afternoon, so the pep rally might not be a washout. It will be nippy for the game though, with the temperature being around 45 at game time.


Cold is fine.... football weather! I live less than a mile from the stadium so I'm inclined to cheer for snow as I usually do, but for all the traveling fans across the state, I'll hold back and hope for a minor event here in NC. Maybe it'll be like last year when we were predicted to get a half a foot or more and ended up with a cold icy rain

Edit to add: just started a mix of some light sleet mixed in with snow flurries. This first system moving through today looks a little stronger than they were anticipating
Going to be an extremely high impact storm.
Quoting 106. nrtiwlnvragn:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016


Excerpt:
LOOKING AT THE TRENDS OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS/QPF
DISTRIBUTION...THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD/SLOWER TREND OF BOTH
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE SNOWFALL OCCURS...WITH A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT BETWEEN VERY HEAVY AND VERY LITTLE SNOW POSSIBLE. RIGHT
NOW...THIS AREA LIES OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND.

This is going to be similar to the January 27, 2015 storm, with a huge bust potential either way, and probably within 75 miles of each other. I don't envy the NWS its job over the next four days.
Quoting 116. CarolinaHurricanes87:



Cold is fine.... football weather! I live less than a mile from the stadium so I'm inclined to cheer for snow as I usually do, but for all the traveling fans across the state, I'll hold back and hope for a minor event here in NC. Maybe it'll be like last year when we were predicted to get a half a foot or more and ended up with a cold icy rain
Whatever does fall is more likely to be a combination of cold rain, sleet and ice, from Friday morning through Saturday morning. There's not much chance of a significant snowfall, but the chance of icing and sleet is high. It will be messy for a while, but nowhere near as bad as it's going to be further north.
Quoting 29. Articuno:

I live in Pasadena Maryland, somewhat in between Baltimore and Annapolis. How much snow should I expect?
The 12z GFS shows about 22-24 inches for you.
Quoting 111. Kittykatz:



I live in Fairfax County almost across the river from Woodbridge, VA. I remember those storms. That was, indeed, an unpleasant period of weather. The more main side roads turned into humply-bumply ice. The expressways were somewhat better. Deep neighborhood roads were impassible. Everything was shut down for several days because nearly no one could get anywhere. I do hope it doesn't get that bad. I hope the power stays on though; have an all electric home.


1994 was the year of extreme ice storms in the area. I sometimes (not entirely tongue in cheek) say half of the ice of the 20'th century fell that year.

1996 was an extreme snow year with two back to back heavy snows. Eastern suburbs got a third 4-6" in the middle. January 7-13 was the snow week, a week later 60F dewpoints with heavy rain arrived, melted all of it and caused massive flooding.

Quoting 94. Tazmanian:

a rare Blizzard Watch is now up for the DC reason i say rare has it dos not happen all the time for major city like DC


Happened with the Feb 2010 storm
Quoting 61. barbamz:


With every strom, Sar, no joke!
From the responses, I'm glad to see I'm not the only one with this form of dyslexia. The worst part is I know I constantly mistype "storm" but, try as I might, I just can't force my brain into a mode where I don't do it again the next time. I guess it's something the conscious mind just doesn't control.

Yesterdays storm which did manage to arrive here and left .10" @Indian Hills and the CoCoRaHS site around the corner showed .06, monthly total is now 2.73" (one day accounted for 1.85" of that total.) Thanks for the updates Gentlemen....
Hmm...Birmingham has now added this wording to the HWO...yesterday, there was no chance of accumulation...stay tuned.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND BRING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SNOW ON FRIDAY. RAIN MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE AREA.
Quoting 115. hydrus:

168 hrs..





With the models shifting south more and more of the SE US is in the snow zone. Especially NE GA and up across much of NC. Interesting as Euro started this trend yesterday.
Quoting 118. sar2401:

This is going to be similar to the January 27, 2015 storm, with a huge bust potential either way, and probably within 75 miles of each other. I don't envy the NWS its job over the next four days.


There is going to be a sharp precip cut off and that point could be on the northern side of DC while the city on south gets drilled. Looks like a very interesting set up. One thing is for certain much of NC and VA are likely to witness one of the biggest snowstorms in history.
Quoting 112. 69Viking:



Doesn't work very good here in Fort Walton Beach, FL either! We did get an ice storm a couple years back that shut the area down for 2 days, that was fun! I would love to see a foot of snow here!
Thanks but NO THANK YOU! After our 2 winters in Middle TN I am content to look at everyone else' snow on my computer monitor... We have only had a few cold days and I'm already ready for Spring!
12z NAM
Starting things off a bit early here in the DMV I guess

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1114 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-503>506-VAZ052>057-506-2100 15-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.160120T2300Z-160121T0500Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
1114 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW FOR THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING. HEAVY SNOW AND
WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE
95...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO AN INCH THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW...STRONGEST
WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
Could even be snow in N FL/Southern GA mid next week if models pan out. This as well needs to be watched.



Quoting 124. PedleyCA:


Yesterdays storm which did manage to arrive here and left .10" @Indian Hills and the CoCoRaHS site around the corner showed .06, monthly total is now 2.73" (one day accounted for 1.85" of that total.) Thanks for the updates Gentlemen....


Nary a wet street here.......Drip........Drip........Drip
Quoting 130. 1Zach1:

Starting things off a bit early here in the DMV I guess

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1114 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-503>506-VAZ052>057-50 6-2100 15-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.160120T2300Z-160121T0500Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
1114 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW FOR THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING. HEAVY SNOW AND
WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE
95...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO AN INCH THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW...STRONGEST
WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
Just the power of what some El-Nino winters can bring.
134. elioe
Quoting 70. RobertWC:

It's 52 F degrees at Nuuk, Greenland , 31 F degrees above average .



Humidity only 14% and wind from the east. Seems kind of merciful situation in regard to the impacts on the ice sheet. I think, that with such dry air, the ice can evaporate just after melting, rather than water falling through holes in the ice and lubricating the bottom. Actually the situation seems to be a Foehn wind coming over the tall ice sheet. Because SST's to the east of Greenland (near Svalbard etc.) have been warming with an exceptional rate, there's lot more heat and moisture in such air, when rising over East Greenlandic mountains. I'd say this is almost an archetypical example of weather conditions in a warming world.
Quoting 108. sar2401:

Nice videos. You've got get the plow train up to speed when you're using a wedge plow. The only thing that moves the snow is the force that plow has when it hits the snow, especially drifts. ...

Wow, Sar. Your speed in composing posts is just amazing. You're sure you're not the advanced chatbot of a database, lol? In the last edition of a leading German newspaper ("Die Zeit") a conversation between the two best chatbots ("Rose" and "Mitsuku") was printed. As they won't "talk" to each other directly, recognizing that the other isn't a real human, the journalist had to feed the answer of one bot to the other manually. The result was, well, a bit fuzzy, but not without sense and quite entertaining. Not very dissimilar to a conversation going on in a blog like this :-)
Of course, with this I don't want to classify your answers as "fuzzy", Sar.
Quoting 78. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its quite nice the cap has a nice spongy feel today


Too bad if it melts Florida is gone and Georgia has a lot more coastline.
CWG saying thundersnow Saturday is a good possibility.
It goes without saying, for those folks who live in the Southern tier of Conus, to be careful driving and only be on the road if you have too..............These trajectories often bring icing (and ice storms) to many parts and black ice on roads and overpasses is very dangerous for those not used to driving in these conditions.
The North Dakota Crude Oil That's Worth Almost Nothing

Flint Hills Resources LLC, the refining arm of billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch’s industrial empire, said it offered to pay $1.50 a barrel Friday for North Dakota Sour, a high-sulfur grade of crude, according to a corrected list of prices posted on its website Monday. It had previously posted a price of -$0.50. The crude is down from $13.50 a barrel a year ago and $47.60 in January 2014.

While the near-zero price is due to the lack of pipeline capacity for a particular variety of ultra low quality crude, it underscores how dire things are in the U.S. oil patch. U.S. benchmark oil prices have collapsed more than 70 percent in the past 18 months and fell below $30 a barrel for the first time in 12 years last week. West Texas Intermediate traded as low as $28.36 in New York. Brent, the international benchmark, settled at $28.55 in London.

“Telling producers that they have to pay you to take away their oil certainly gives the producers a whole bunch of incentive to shut in their wells,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston, said of the price that was posted as negative until Flint Hills revised it on Monday.


Link
The title of the blog article, "Mid-Atlantic Braces for Potentially Epic Blizzard", hints at an area that could get heavy snowfall. The title starts with "Mid-Atlantic", and the end letters of "Mid" & "Atlantic" spell "DC". The title ends with "Epic Blizzard", and the end letters of "Blizzard" & "Epic" spell "DC". The first 2 letters of my username spell the same.
Quoting 110. Drakoen:
Blizzard watches are up and I see the GFS 12z has the bullseye around the DC area.
We keep trying to get ahold of the inlaws in Fairfax... I guess everyone up there is on a shopping frenzy?

Is that probably what's going on up there? I mean, it's not just a normal day up there today, is it?
Quoting 121. georgevandenberghe:



1994 was the year of extreme ice storms in the area. I sometimes (not entirely tongue in cheek) say half of the ice of the 20'th century fell that year.

1996 was an extreme snow year with two back to back heavy snows. Eastern suburbs got a third 4-6" in the middle. January 7-13 was the snow week, a week later 60F dewpoints with heavy rain arrived, melted all of it and caused massive flooding.




I had moved from Mobile to D.C. in '93 and that winter of '93-'94 was quite a shock. I lived right in town, near DuPont Circle. I remember one epic ice storm, and the so-called Storm Of The Century, and also a graupel storm that left drifts up to 18 inches high. The craziest part was that the graupel on parked cars partially melted the next day, then refroze -- and heaved everyone's license plates outward from the cars!
Quoting 141. aquak9:

We keep trying to get ahold of the inlaws in Fairfax... I guess everyone up there is on a shopping frenzy?

Is that probably what's going on up there? I mean, it's not just a normal day up there today, is it?
Normal as any other day.
Quoting 143. 1Zach1:
Normal as any other day.
So they got this stORm coming, and it's just a normal day? no frenzied shopping?
Another example of why climate scientists have no credibility:

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2016/01/20/early-m an-now-getting-blame-for-causing-global-warming.ht ml?intcmp=hpbt1

And no it's not from foxnews, the study was done by climate scientist William Ruddiman and his colleagues at the University of Virginia.
WED JAN 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN ACCUMULATING MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF NORTH GEORGIA TODAY...BEGINNING THIS MORNING.

FOR THIS REASON...A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SUMMERVILLE...TO
DAWSONVILLE...TO HELEN. ADDITIONALLY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES ALONG A LINE FROM ROME...TO
CANTON...TO HOMER FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THESE LOCATIONS.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF
NORTH GEORGIA CAN BE FOUND IN BOTH THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
NORTHERN GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIPITATION.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.


$$
Been there, done that. Living on Cape Cod now, but I spent my teenage years in Virginia, and my childhood in Canada. I know of what I speak. The South is not prepared for this type of storm, they have no snow removal equipment or trucks with sand and salt. I've been without power and snowed in quite a bit. Here's some tips:

- Fireplaces - Hopefully you've had it inspected and cleaned. It will be your best friend if you lose power and heat. Block the doorways to the room with the fireplace with hanging blankets or curtains to keep the heat in the central room. Bring mattresses in this central room for everyone to sleep together. Close off rooms not being used.
- Get wood now, even the compressed wood. Get as much as you can. Don't burn it all at once. Keep an even pace. 2 to 3 logs to get started, then add a new log every 2-3 hours - ration, see how it's burning - figure 10 - 12 logs per day minimum. 3 days is 36 logs, but 100 might be better.
-If you've got a wood burning stove, get cast iron to cook with and boil water.
-If you have a fireplace, get a camping rack that lets you cook over a fire. Cast iron is best for this cooking as well.
-If you have an outdoor grill, be prepared to use it and cook outdoors with it. Get charcoal now.
-A manual crank cheese grater will grind coffee beans. 2 Tablespoons ground coffee beans with 6 to 8 cups boiling water - steep the beans 4 minutes or so - strain, and you've got coffee. Nothing takes the panic off like a hot cup of something when there's no power and you're cold.
-Don't forget to set your faucets to drip to help keep your pipes from freezing.
-If you have an electric water pump, you may lose your water. Use snow and melt it. Have containers ready for melted snow.
-You will not be able to flush your toilets if your water doesn't run. Figure out a plan for waste - you could melt snow and pour it in a gallon bucket and then pour the water into the toilet bowls to force a flush. Experiment, but take the yellow / mellow frame of mind. Have plenty of plastic waste bags on hand.
-Boil utensils to clean.
-Charge every chargeable electronic piece of equipment now. If you have a small battery backup in the house, (usually used for computers) as soon as the power goes out, unplug everything from it and turn it off. You can recharge cell phones, etc with it. Again, ration, make good decisions.
-Get your batteries now.
-Check your radio.
-Use paper plates and cups - use as fuel when done.
-Hot food calms people down.
-Ration flashlight use.
-Have candles - but supervise the use - keep them high and watch for fires.
-LED lamps and flashlights are easy on batteries. Keep one in the kitchen and one in the bathroom.
-Pack plastic gallon bags with snow and then pack your refrigerator and freezer with the "snow bags".
-Minimize opening the refrigerator door as much as possible.
-Pack a cooler with snow and add drinks to keep them handy and cold.
-Keep food simple - Bread, peanut butter, jelly, crackers. Eat meats first. Make stews and soups if you can cook on your heat source.
-If you don't have a heat source, don't stay at home, go to someplace that does.
-Don't abandon your animals. Don't leave them outside.
-Make sure you have enough food and pet food for at least a week, 2 would be better.
-When you first go outside, look at the power lines to see if anything has come down. This is extremely important. Use all caution you can do determine if it's safe.
-Check in with your neighbors now and after. Have a plan with them if you can.

and that's just for starters and all from experience.
NWS will be doing a special weather balloon release this afternoon to collect more data.
Quoting 145. Sandy82579:

Another example of why climate scientists have no credibility:

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2016/01/20/early-m an-now-getting-blame-for-causing-global-warming.ht ml?intcmp=hpbt1


FYI -
Global warming in 2015 made weather more extreme and it’s likely to get worse

For those still unconvinced about the reality of climate change, the year that just ended should erase any doubt. Climate data from the air, land and water all reveal an indisputable portrait of a warming world.

On Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA jointly announced that 2015 was the warmest year on record for the planet. The previous record, set just 12 months ago in 2014, wasn’t merely broken, it was smashed.

There’s a saying that numbers numb and stories sell, but the latest climate numbers tell a story that is stunning.


Link
RobertWC - Got another source other than Fox News by any chance?
Quoting 144. aquak9:

So they got this stORm coming, and it's just a normal day? no frenzied shopping?
I haven't seen anything crazy, maybe now that a Blizzard Watch was posted the stores will pick up.
@aquak9 -- when I am looking for news in a local area, I google for the local TV stations. Many have live broadcasts and they will probably have stories about locals preparing for the storms. I wish your inlaws good luck.

Quoting 141. aquak9:

We keep trying to get ahold of the inlaws in Fairfax... I guess everyone up there is on a shopping frenzy?

Is that probably what's going on up there? I mean, it's not just a normal day up there today, is it?
Quoting 145. Sandy82579:

Another example of why climate scientists have no credibility:

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2016/01/20/early-m an-now-getting-blame-for-causing-global-warming.ht ml?intcmp=hpbt1

And no it's not from foxnews, the study was done by climate scientist William Ruddiman and his colleagues at the University of Virginia.


Maybe linking to the study instead of the Fox news commentary would be a good start.
12z Euro now loading.
156. shawe
I grew up inside the Beltway in suburban MD. I am sure I recall a very deep snowfall (12"-20") in the early 60s but it isn't on the chart...has my memory failed me?
Quoting 145. Sandy82579:

Another example of why climate scientists have no credibility:

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2016/01/20/early-m an-now-getting-blame-for-causing-global-warming.ht ml?intcmp=hpbt1

And no it's not from foxnews, the study was done by climate scientist William Ruddiman and his colleagues at the University of Virginia.


You do realize that Ruddiman supports man-made climate change? Just that he disagrees with some of the timelines and effects?
Quoting 145. Sandy82579:

Another example of why climate scientists have no credibility:

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2016/01/20/early-m an-now-getting-blame-for-causing-global-warming.ht ml?intcmp=hpbt1

And no it's not from foxnews, the study was done by climate scientist William Ruddiman and his colleagues at the University of Virginia.


I'm confused, are you saying all climate scientists have no credibility because ONE plaeoclimatologist has a theory that early man first started climate change? Do you have evidence to say he's wrong or are you just saying that because it sounds outlandish, it means he isn't credible?

And why is he wrong exactly? It is a well known fact that plants are carbon sinks, they take carbon out of the air. It is well known that burning plant material puts carbon into the air. Logic dictates that if you remove enough vegetation from the earth (remove some of the sink) and you also put more carbon into the air (increase the source), the natural carbon cycle will become disrupted and you will have a net gain of atmospheric carbon. Not saying he is right, but the logic is there so it is "possible" but I wouldn't call it "probable".

Oh, and by the way, more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, hotter temperatures, no one argues this point, not even climate deniers.
Quoting 150. Dakster:

RobertWC - Got another source other than Fox News by any chance?


Sure do -
Mounting evidence suggests early agriculture staved off global cooling

A new analysis of ice-core climate data, archeological evidence and ancient pollen samples strongly suggests that agriculture by humans 7,000 years ago likely slowed a natural cooling process of the global climate, playing a role in the relatively warmer climate we experience today.

A study detailing the findings is published online in a recent edition of the journal Reviews of Geophysics, published by the American Geophysical Union.

"Early farming helped keep the planet warm," said William Ruddiman, a University of Virginia climate scientist and lead author of the study, who specializes in investigating ocean sediment and ice-core records for evidence of climate fluctuations.

A dozen years ago, Ruddiman hypothesized that early humans altered the climate by burning massive areas of forests to clear the way for crops and livestock grazing. The resulting carbon dioxide and methane released into the atmosphere had a warming effect that "cancelled most or all of a natural cooling that should have occurred," he said.


Link


(Click to enlarge). (Source). Friday night is going to be an interesting night for both sides of the Atlantic. Above the 6z run of the new German global model ICON (I could have used a different model as well). While the blizzard is about to hit the US East coast (left black arrow; red=snow, blue=rain), a front with rain will pour onto the frozen soils of Germany, producing black ice (green) for many hours including in my region near Frankfurt (right black arrow). Strong warnings are already out. Well, I guess nobody in here will hear my shouting Friday night because of the US-blizzard, lol.
With the start of the Potent Crippling Snowstorm/Blizzard about 48 hrs away, we get a little appetizer with widespread snow showers tonight.
Quoting 126. StormTrackerScott:



With the models shifting south more and more of the SE US is in the snow zone. Especially NE GA and up across much of NC. Interesting as Euro started this trend yesterday.
Need to shift at least north of Lake Pontchartrain in southeast Louisiana. I still think we will have a chance of snow early next week in the southeastern Louisiana.
a tune to set the mood


Quoting 163. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

a tune to set the mood



Come Sunday Morning Keep, we will for sure look like this.
72 hrs.

Quoting 166. Climate175:

72 hrs.
Hell yeah!
Euro bombs the region once again. Let the jamming begin!
Hi, this is for shawe, wondering about a few large snowstorms in the '60's.

I live near Winchester, Virginia, and have fond memories of the storms you mentioned. One was in 1963, and the other was in 1966. They were grand snowstorms, and had lots of fun, huge drifts to play on. I don't remember how much snow fell, but the drifts were so tall, my playmate and I could climb on our pony shed, and jump across to the tall drifts, and tumble down them with glee.
Quoting 145. Sandy82579:

Another example of why climate scientists have no credibility:

Quoting 145. Sandy82579:

the study was done by climate scientist William Ruddiman and his colleagues at the University of Virginia.


So, we prove climate scientists have no credibility by quoting a climate scientist. Sound a bit like the old logical conundrum Capt. Kirk used to defeat an android-"Kirk: Everything Harry says is a lie. Harry: I am lying"
Quoting 156. shawe:

I grew up inside the Beltway in suburban MD. I am sure I recall a very deep snowfall (12"-20") in the early 60s but it isn't on the chart...has my memory failed me?


There's a 12.0" on Jan. 29, 1966, ranked as #9 among one-day snowfalls on the Dulles list shown here
NWS/Sterling snow stats
CWG's First Snowfall Map.
Quoting 145. Sandy82579:

Another example of why climate scientists have no credibility:

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2016/01/20/early-m an-now-getting-blame-for-causing-global-warming.ht ml?intcmp=hpbt1

And no it's not from foxnews, the study was done by climate scientist William Ruddiman and his colleagues at the University of Virginia.
Oh, "another" example. That implies you have more "examples". Care to share those? And, as others have already noted, can you link to something more credible than an opinion piece on Fox? TIA...
latest depiction

Quoting 173. Climate175:

CWG's First Snowfall Map.
I'm right on the line between 15-25 and 12-20
Quoting 176. 1Zach1:

I'm right on the line between 15-25 and 12-20
I expect the CWG to shift more east once we get closer to the start of the event.
It's amazing of how the mountains affect snow quantities. One side or the other usually gets dumped on. Over near Winchester, Virginia, we had a ~30" snow storm in 1980, and that date isn't listed at all for a large DC snow!
Quoting 141. aquak9:

We keep trying to get ahold of the inlaws in Fairfax... I guess everyone up there is on a shopping frenzy?

Is that probably what's going on up there? I mean, it's not just a normal day up there today, is it?


I've been at work so I have no idea. Planning on getting some groceries/supplies today
Zika virus is in Florida... Thankfully only because travelers got bitten elsewhere and then came here. However, I wonder if they got bit by a mosquito HERE if the mosquito here is now able to spread it?

Storms coming could blow the mosquito around and spread it throughout the southern us...

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/artic le55538970.html

Cold weather coming would be a blessing and maybe stop the spread this time around.
Yikes! I'm right under the "t" in 176, with 15-25"! 1Zach1, where did you find this graph? I'd like to see it in its context.

Thank you.
Looks like the GFS may end up winning the forecast for this storm over the ECMWF.
Southern China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and southern Japan will also experience a harsh cold snap during the weekend, but not many snowstorms, most of the area will see dry freezing conditions like Shanghai and Southeast Japan.
Taiwan could see some precipitations and the snowline in the north could be as low as 1000m,which is not common.

I doubt it will happen, but it's not 100% impossible, that Hong Kong tallest peak Tai Mo Shan could see some flakes of snow with blowing wind.

Some snowstorms will indeed be possible in Southwest Japan, but that is not rare.
What are "current" snowfall totals looking like for NYC and Long Island?
Quoting 182. Drakoen:

Looks like the GFS may end up winning the forecast for this storm over the ECMWF.
You got that right.
Quoting 181. bshoemaker:

Yikes! I'm right under the "t" in 176, with 15-25"! 1Zach1, where did you find this graph? I'd like to see it in its context.

Thank you.
Note: I'm not the one who posted it, I just quoted it for where I was, but it is available hereCapital Weather Gangs Forecaster Snow Total Roundup
NOVA
Mystery Beneath the Ice Preview


What’s behind the death of a tiny creature with an outsized role in the Antarctic? Airing January 20, 2016 at 9 pm on PBS

Link
I know it isn't going to make it this far south, but what I would GIVE to have snowflakes here in North Charleston from this storm. Bah.
Just making some last minute preperations.Nature is saying "3 feet it will be"
190. vis0
Quoting 6. sar2401:

Good morning Bob and the rest of the gang that might happen to be awake at this ungodly hour. I have no idea why I'm awake other than I guess my body thinks it got enough sleep. My brain doesn't agree with my body, but there seems to be a communication problem between those two from time to time. :-)

The latest model runs have all shifted the low about 100 miles or so further south. The 18z Tuesday had the low up at the AL/TN/GA intersection. The 06z Wednesday models have the low firmly in north central MS and AL as it moves east. This is true for both the GFS and ECMWF. The shift of the low south has been apparent for the last four model runs. The current GFS also has the low hanging around MS/AL about six hours longer than it did. The low also exits into the Atlantic near the GA/SC border instead of further north at the SC/NC border. The low also doesn't move as far north as it did, and it begins a turn out to sea about six hours sooner than it did previously.

All this has some implications for the Southeast first. There's a higher risk for severe thunderstorms and maybe a tornado or two from Louisiana over to MIssissippi Thursday afternoon, and a lesser but non-zero risk of the same in the Panhandle and south Alabama Friday morning. This does not look like the kind of setup where peninsular Florida is at any risk for severe storms. The low may still be far enough north so all that happens there is some rain, although shifts further south may change that outlook somewhat.

The more southern route of the low will also cause the cold air coming down with the front to be here a little earlier in relation to the low and last a little longer as the low continues east. That means the chances of sleet, ice, and snow are greater than yesterday at this time. The increased likelihood of frozen stuff has now moved south to about north central MS and AL as well as northern GA. Once you get into the northern sections of those states and the Tennessee Valley, almost all the precipitation for about 12 hours, and maybe longer into Saturday morning, should be all snow. This is going to cause a significant snowfall for those areas, with widespread traffic and airline disruptions. The airline disruptions will spread north as the storm progresses, with the potential of crippling shutdowns of air travel for the weekend.

As far as snow totals further north, I don't make those kinds of predictions, since I'm almost always wrong. If the low follows the path currently depicted, the snow totals from Philly north, while still being a no-kidding winter storm, might not be the doom predictions I've seen. From Maryland south there's still going to be a lot of snow, less at the coast and much more in the highlands and mountains inland. West Virginia is likely to be particularly hard hit. When the low turns out to sea, and at what location it makes the turn, will be a major determinant in snow for the mid-Atlantic states. The same would be true in the mountains of North Carolina.

A very dynamic four days ahead, and I expect to see the fine details shift right up until about the time it starts snowing/raining. I'm just a rank amateur, so don't take anything I write as a forecast to be used in place of your NWS forecasts. This is worth exactly what you've paid to read it - nothing to not much. 8-0
Excel lent report, yet someone might have a bone to pick with sar2401 read my reply is at my zilly blog pg.6 cmmnt#279 (pssst.. hover over the dot after pg      ...shhhh)
Quoting 159. RobertWC:



Sure do -
Mounting evidence suggests early agriculture staved off global cooling

A new analysis of ice-core climate data, archeological evidence and ancient pollen samples strongly suggests that agriculture by humans 7,000 years ago likely slowed a natural cooling process of the global climate, playing a role in the relatively warmer climate we experience today.

A study detailing the findings is published online in a recent edition of the journal Reviews of Geophysics, published by the American Geophysical Union.

"Early farming helped keep the planet warm," said William Ruddiman, a University of Virginia climate scientist and lead author of the study, who specializes in investigating ocean sediment and ice-core records for evidence of climate fluctuations.

A dozen years ago, Ruddiman hypothesized that early humans altered the climate by burning massive areas of forests to clear the way for crops and livestock grazing. The resulting carbon dioxide and methane released into the atmosphere had a warming effect that "cancelled most or all of a natural cooling that should have occurred," he said.


Link

This makes sense when one considers that the climate is a by-product of a self-regulating and living system. Over 3.5 billion years ago, earth’s first ocean organisms immediately began the process of terraforming a hostile and oxygenless atmosphere into a life-giving “membrane” – composed of the oxygen and carbon necessary for blocking harmful solar radiation while releasing excess heat to outer-space. Since the sun was significantly cooler in prehistoric times, earth’s collective cellular activity helped maintain much more atmospheric carbon than today. As the sun became warmer, ecosystems and geology absorbed the extra carbon for the earth to sequester so that the atmosphere stayed neither too hot nor too cold for new life to thrive and evolve. (references 1, 2, 3, 4)

Ecosystems evolve with their planet and local star to collectively create an ideal atmosphere. In this way, the star and the planet are part of the universe's eternal collaboration toward creating evermore complex and magnificent evolutions. The climate crisis, whose roots began at the dawn of civilization, is humanity's grand experiment to explore and test the nature of this planet-star collaboration. Well in 2015 the results are in. It's time to stop warring with our star, and to start collaborating with the cosmic miracle that is our living starship earth. :O
Quoting 173. Climate175:

CWG's First Snowfall Map.


CWG needs to update that as most of the snow is going to be City on south. Much lighter accumulations further north from DC. NYC oddly enough is literally right on the precip cut off line too. There is a big bust potential for many if the NWS offices from these cities in the NE US don't start looking at this model data more clearly.

DC I think will get clobbered but an hour north from there maybe just 3" to 6" of snow while DC might get over 2'. I personally like the Euro and its bullseye over NC & VA with over 3' in areas. Euro has been extremely consistent with this.

Again CWG has a hard time nailing a forecast so what makes you think they have this right as well.
Quoting 189. washingtonian115:

Just making some last minute preperations.Nature is saying "3 feet it will be"


Euro shows 18" to 24" in DC but maybe heavier totals further south in VA.
Quoting 180. Dakster:

Zika virus is in Florida... Thankfully only because travelers got bitten elsewhere and then came here. However, I wonder if they got bit by a mosquito HERE if the mosquito here is now able to spread it?

Storms coming could blow the mosquito around and spread it throughout the southern us...

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/artic le55538970.html

Cold weather coming would be a blessing and maybe stop the spread this time around.


I don't know that much about zika, but with malaria, there is a phenomenon of "airport malaria" in which an infected mosquito gets on a plane and infects airport workers or people who live near the airport in a non-endemic region. Typically these infections die out after a short time, but it's certainly possible zika could establish itself in places that are favorable to the insect vector. And those areas are increasing as the climate warms.
Euro has the Bullseye right over Richmond, Virginia with nearly 30" forecast by the Euro. Euro also now forecasting a foot of snow near Nashville too. So many talking about DC but according to the models especially the Euro some may need to look south.
Quoting 164. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Is that what becomes the monster?
BTW this storm would break Richmond's All-Time total by a mile. Could be a historic event for those in Virginia if this verifies.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3h3 hours ago
Last three GFS model runs for Wash DC metro in the 24-36" range -- could be conservative w/mesoscale banding

Its okay bloggers.You can blog about your weather too.No one is stopping you.
Quoting 198. washingtonian115:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3h3 hours ago
Last three GFS model runs for Wash DC metro in the 24-36" range -- could be conservative w/mesoscale banding

Its okay bloggers.You can blog about your weather too.No one is stopping you.


Nothing going on here Washi cold and 66 here in Orlando. yes cold and 66 I say.
Quoting 195. StormTrackerScott:

Euro has the Bullseye right over Richmond, Virginia with nearly 30" forecast by the Euro. Euro also now forecasting a foot of snow near Nashville too. So many talking about DC but according to the models especially the Euro some may need to look south.


Absolutely agree...DC will get their snow....the south needs to watch this storm particularly with ice. There looks like there could be a major ice storm unfolding for Upstate S.C. and west - central NC (I'm sure more snow in the mountains than ice). Just saw a graph on TWC showing a lot of ice along the I85 corridor in S.C and N.C.
Quoting 197. StormTrackerScott:

BTW this storm would break Richmond's All-Time total by a mile. Could be a historic event for those in Virginia if this verifies.


There might be some bad flooding when all of that snow melts Scott.
Forecast for Orlando on Friday. Another system delivering solid rainfall totals across the area. Most if not all areas in C & S FL are already @ or above average for January

Friday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Windy, with a south southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south southwest 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
for those interested, Dr. Ruddimann has long stated human influence on the planet has been long and profound, dating back to the end of the ice age. His work's very worth digging into if you're curious. I'm not surprised media coverage has muddled it.
Quoting 200. NyFan1:



Absolutely agree...DC will get their snow....the south needs to watch this storm particularly with ice. There looks like there could be a major ice storm unfolding for Upstate S.C. and west - central NC (I'm sure more snow in the mountains than ice). Just saw a graph on TWC showing a lot of ice along the I85 corridor in S.C and N.C.


Snow looks very heavy across Western & northern NC and all of VA. Personally I think the heaviest zone of snow is going to set up from Western NC up to just SE of DC. Again that is not to discount that DC will still get 2' of snow potentially but I think the 30" totals could be centered around Richmond.
RobertWC - Thanks... I read foxnews at times... but I also like to double check them.

Cool for South Florida too. I wouldn't call it cold for me though.

Quoting 145. Sandy82579:

Another example of why climate scientists have no credibility:

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2016/01/20/early-m an-now-getting-blame-for-causing-global-warming.ht ml?intcmp=hpbt1

And no it's not from foxnews, the study was done by climate scientist William Ruddiman and his colleagues at the University of Virginia.


This section was written by fox news:

A new analysis of ice-core climate data, archaeological evidence and ancient pollen samples is being used to suggest farming some 7,000 years ago helped put the brakes on a natural cooling process of the global climate, possibly contributing the warmer climate seen today.

But the study is expected to raise a few eyebrows, given there were far fewer people on Earth back then and industrialization -- and the coal-fired power plants that come with it -- was still a long ways off.

---- man-made farming is a measurable AGW impact.

This doesn't go against what policy makers should be looking at - which is reducing our AGW impacts.
Yes, CraigsIsland - I took it the same way you did. Man made climate change exists and we are getting better at it as time goes on. We need to get better at preventing it.

StormTrackerScott - Been watching the markets wondering if they are listening to Ludacris... (How low can you go?)
Getting a little tail.


Quoting 198. washingtonian115:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3h3 hours ago
Last three GFS model runs for Wash DC metro in the 24-36" range -- could be conservative w/mesoscale banding

Its okay bloggers.You can blog about your weather too.No one is stopping you.


The GFS has been so consistent and has been doing so well with this storm it is hard to ignore. Prepare for 3 feet with much higher drifts.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1114 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

MDZ003-501-502-VAZ028-031-WVZ050>053-503-504-2100 15-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/
WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
1114 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW.

* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL
IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH SATURDAY AND THEN TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S. TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

USE THIS ADVANCE NOTICE TO PLAN AHEAD! ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS...AND
PLANNED ACTIVITIES. STOCK UP ON NECESSITIES. MAKE PLANS FOR
ELDERLY FAMILY AND THOSE MOST AT RISK. PREPARE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
USE THIS TIME TO MINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU...YOUR FAMILY...AND YOUR
COMMUNITY.

&&





Oh joy and gladness!
Quoting 200. NyFan1:



Absolutely agree...DC will get their snow....the south needs to watch this storm particularly with ice. There looks like there could be a major ice storm unfolding for Upstate S.C. and west - central NC (I'm sure more snow in the mountains than ice). Just saw a graph on TWC showing a lot of ice along the I85 corridor in S.C and N.C.


Could make for a fun game on Sunday.
The GFS is showing another bout of severe weather potential for FL in about a week. El Nino is in full swing in FL.

Quoting 208. Grothar:

Getting a little tail.





Geez..the dreaded 'comma' shape. No good can come from that.
Quoting 200. NyFan1:



Absolutely agree...DC will get their snow....the south needs to watch this storm particularly with ice. There looks like there could be a major ice storm unfolding for Upstate S.C. and west - central NC (I'm sure more snow in the mountains than ice). Just saw a graph on TWC showing a lot of ice along the I85 corridor in S.C and N.C.


I talked to some of my co workers in Raleigh and after school events are already being cancelled..12z GFS had ice/freezing rain for my area but the Euro had half of my county with some type of winter precip..last ice storm they said we wouldnt get much and was one of the hardest hit counties of NC..

Should be interesting to see what unfolds..I just need the roads cleared on Sunday and Bank Of America Stadium to be ready to rock..
How interesting that during hurricane season with Joaquin a lot of bloggers gave the GFS a hard time when the Euro won out..but now the GFS is getting praises over the Euro..

Be prepare and tune in to your local NWS..Nature doesn't care what model you affiliate yourself with..If you get snow, ice or rain its because of the weather and not the models..

Go Panthers!!

GFS 800-600mb Vertically averaged frontogenesis from FSU showing strong frontogenetical forcing in the deformation band over MD and NOVA.

Debating on if I want to head out to High Point tomorrow afternoon for the weekend...

Quoting 213. tampabaymatt:

The GFS is showing another bout of severe weather potential for FL in about a week. El Nino is in full swing in FL.




The gfs has been hinting that for a couple days now, definitely characteristic of enso
Quoting 217. ncstorm:

How interesting that during hurricane season with Joaquin a lot of bloggers gave the GFS a hard time when the Euro won out..but now the GFS is getting praises over the Euro..

Be prepare and tune in to your local NWS..Nature doesn't care what model you affiliate yourself with..If you get snow, ice or rain its because of the weather and not the models..

Go Panthers!!




Hard to ignore the Euro if you live in NC/VA as this model has the heaviest snow further south compared to the GFS. Euro also show a sharp PWAT cut off about 100 to 110 mile north of DC so its going to be hard for heavy snow to make it up the I-95 corridor NYC to BOS. Eastern areas of NYC should do well according to Euro but BOS may not get anything. Even Philly is forecast by the Euro to have much lighter snowfall totals.
Quoting 213. tampabaymatt:

The GFS is showing another bout of severe weather potential for FL in about a week. El Nino is in full swing in FL.




Both GFS and Euro showing a rain maker come next Wednesday & Thursday across FL. Totals could be in the 1" to 3" range across C & S FL next week.

BTW Euro is blasting FL come February with some serious rainfall accums compared to average in many cases 3 to 5 time what is average for February.
Quoting 220. StormTrackerScott:



Hard to ignore the Euro if you live in NC/VA as this model has the heaviest snow further south compared to the GFS. Euro also show a sharp PWAT cut off about 100 to 110 mile north of DC so its going to be hard for heavy snow to make it up the I-95 corridor NYC to BOS. Eastern areas of NYC should do well according to Euro but BOS may not get anything. Even Philly is forecast by the Euro to have much lighter snowfall totals.


Seems we may pick up an inch in Boston. A windy inch.
Quoting 223. GeorgiaStormz:



Seems we may pick up an inch in Boston. A windy inch.


We? I thought you were in ATL?
225. ariot
Have any of my fellow NOVA/DC/B'More people started a Change.org petition to bar Jim Cantore from the area this weekend?

If so, link it up.

Dang 18z nam

Quoting 216. Gearsts:


Gonna be a massive system.
Quoting 225. ariot:

Have any of my fellow NOVA/DC/B'More people started a Change.org petition to bar Jim Cantore from the area this weekend?

If so, link it up.


He'll bring bad luck! Ban Cantore!
Quoting 221. washingtonian115:


If there already starting with that, I can't imagine what will be like in the end.
STORMTRACKERSCOTT

Bill in NEW SMYRNA BEACH, seems long rang models have deviated considerbly for Central Florida weather as plus hours go by. Seems these lows need to drop further south as happened in last El Niño. Any thoughts?
Amazingly how suddenly MS and now maybe even AL got into this on the last 2 NAM runs



6-8" in MS on both of the last 2 runs
NAM further south

Quoting 232. VAbeachhurricanes:

NAM further south




Yep still with these 25-100 mile fluctuations. Wonder how that affects the track later on. NYC is the city that has a chance to be in or out.
Quoting 232. VAbeachhurricanes:

NAM further south



Looks nearly the same location of the Low as the 12Z run.
NAM 18Z is an absolute crush job
18Z NAM shifted even more to the south. Also has a line of severe storms crossing the FL Penisula Friday.

Quoting 192. StormTrackerScott:



CWG needs to update that as most of the snow is going to be City on south. Much lighter accumulations further north from DC. NYC oddly enough is literally right on the precip cut off line too. There is a big bust potential for many if the NWS offices from these cities in the NE US don't start looking at this model data more clearly.

DC I think will get clobbered but an hour north from there maybe just 3" to 6" of snow while DC might get over 2'. I personally like the Euro and its bullseye over NC & VA with over 3' in areas. Euro has been extremely consistent with this.

Again CWG has a hard time nailing a forecast so what makes you think they have this right as well.


Scott, you're letting my hopes down! Q_Q
Quoting 235. Drakoen:

NAM 18Z is an absolute crush job


Nice fetch on this NAM run into DC but again further north from there not much
Quoting 235. Drakoen:

NAM 18Z is an absolute crush job


South possibly getting in on some (lesser) snow now too. Interesting trend


CWG said Snowzilla had a nice ring to it in terms of naming the storms, but is looking for ideas.
Quoting 147. klaatuborada:

Been there, done that. Living on Cape Cod now, but I spent my teenage years in Virginia, and my childhood in Canada. I know of what I speak. The South is not prepared for this type of storm, they have no snow removal equipment or trucks with sand and salt. I've been without power and snowed in quite a bit. Here's some tips:

- Fireplaces - Hopefully you've had it inspected and cleaned. It will be your best friend if you lose power and heat. Block the doorways to the room with the fireplace with hanging blankets or curtains to keep the heat in the central room. Bring mattresses in this central room for everyone to sleep together. Close off rooms not being used.
- Get wood now, even the compressed wood. Get as much as you can. Don't burn it all at once. Keep an even pace. 2 to 3 logs to get started, then add a new log every 2-3 hours - ration, see how it's burning - figure 10 - 12 logs per day minimum. 3 days is 36 logs, but 100 might be better.
-If you've got a wood burning stove, get cast iron to cook with and boil water.
-If you have a fireplace, get a camping rack that lets you cook over a fire. Cast iron is best for this cooking as well.
-If you have an outdoor grill, be prepared to use it and cook outdoors with it. Get charcoal now.
-A manual crank cheese grater will grind coffee beans. 2 Tablespoons ground coffee beans with 6 to 8 cups boiling water - steep the beans 4 minutes or so - strain, and you've got coffee. Nothing takes the panic off like a hot cup of something when there's no power and you're cold.
-Don't forget to set your faucets to drip to help keep your pipes from freezing.
-If you have an electric water pump, you may lose your water. Use snow and melt it. Have containers ready for melted snow.
-You will not be able to flush your toilets if your water doesn't run. Figure out a plan for waste - you could melt snow and pour it in a gallon bucket and then pour the water into the toilet bowls to force a flush. Experiment, but take the yellow / mellow frame of mind. Have plenty of plastic waste bags on hand.
-Boil utensils to clean.
-Charge every chargeable electronic piece of equipment now. If you have a small battery backup in the house, (usually used for computers) as soon as the power goes out, unplug everything from it and turn it off. You can recharge cell phones, etc with it. Again, ration, make good decisions.
-Get your batteries now.
-Check your radio.
-Use paper plates and cups - use as fuel when done.
-Hot food calms people down.
-Ration flashlight use.
-Have candles - but supervise the use - keep them high and watch for fires.
-LED lamps and flashlights are easy on batteries. Keep one in the kitchen and one in the bathroom.
-Pack plastic gallon bags with snow and then pack your refrigerator and freezer with the "snow bags".
-Minimize opening the refrigerator door as much as possible.
-Pack a cooler with snow and add drinks to keep them handy and cold.
-Keep food simple - Bread, peanut butter, jelly, crackers. Eat meats first. Make stews and soups if you can cook on your heat source.
-If you don't have a heat source, don't stay at home, go to someplace that does.
-Don't abandon your animals. Don't leave them outside.
-Make sure you have enough food and pet food for at least a week, 2 would be better.
-When you first go outside, look at the power lines to see if anything has come down. This is extremely important. Use all caution you can do determine if it's safe.
-Check in with your neighbors now and after. Have a plan with them if you can.

and that's just for starters and all from experience.




Before the chance of losing power fill the bathtub with water to use to flush the toilet.
Damaging Winds becoming more likely with thunderstorms across FL on Friday. Each shift south is just increasing instability on each passing run.

Quoting 201. tampabaymatt:



There might be some bad flooding when all of that snow melts Scott.

You might get approximately an inch of water for every foot of snow. If it gets compacted by partial melting and more snow falls on top then a bit more than an inch of water per foot.
Every day the snow lays on the ground, you are losing water to the rivers, so the longer before the thaw the less water levels rise you get.
Quoting 233. GeorgiaStormz:



Yep still with these 25-100 mile fluctuations. Wonder how that affects the track later on. NYC is the city that has a chance to be in or out.
Quoting 233. GeorgiaStormz:



Yep still with these 25-100 mile fluctuations. Wonder how that affects the track later on. NYC is the city that has a chance to be in or out.


This further supports a major ice event along I85 corridor from Greenville, SC to Raleigh. Its also important to remember models usually underestimate cold air damming east of the App Mtns, which is clearly happening with this storm. Anyone from ATL? I'm interested to hear what the mets have been saying there...any chance for frozen precipiation?
And NAM says.."And you get 3 feet and you get three fee.Everyone gets three feeeet"
Quoting 241. pickettroad:




Before the chance of losing power fill the bathtub with water to use to flush the toilet.


May want to also fill jugs up with drinking water or buy gallons of water...

I like the outdoor grill and be prepared to use it outdoors, too many people try and use them indoors and that doesn't end well.

For summer storms I usually freeze a bunch of water in jugs to make locks of ice. They last a lot longer than a bag of ice cubes. Not sure that is going to be a problem in a snow storm.
Quoting 245. washingtonian115:

And NAM says.."And you get 3 feet and you get three fee.Everyone gets three feeeet"

30-37 inches for a good amount of people.


Ice in Carolinas along i85
See here for details relating to this morning's NASA/NOAA press conference on record global temperature in 2015.

Also, see here for an article on the flat earth movement, such as it is. It's interesting to compare/contrast with climate change denial. IMO if you took away the money the latter would strongly resemble the former.
Quoting 244. NyFan1:



This further supports a major ice event along I85 corridor from Greenville, SC to Raleigh. Its also important to remember models usually underestimate cold air damming east of the App Mtns, which is clearly happening with this storm. Anyone from ATL? I'm interested to hear what the mets have been saying there...any chance for frozen precipiation?


I was from Georgia so I still follow a lot of the mets but they've been focused on today's system. The increased GA effects beyond the mountains were uncertain with all the model solutions and still it may take till late tonight or tomorrow morning for clarity.
Quoting 245. washingtonian115:

And NAM says.."And you get 3 feet and you get three fee.Everyone gets three feeeet"

Greetings Wash...Snow snow snow...Even your snow blower will cringe when you start messin with that...Mu haa haa...:)


Heavy snow from W. NC all the way through DC to NY
Quoting 172. BobHenson:



There's a 12.0" on Jan. 29, 1966, ranked as #9 among one-day snowfalls on the Dulles list shown here
NWS/Sterling snow stats


I was there as a 4 year old kid living in Fairfax Country in northern Va.
Quoting 211. Grothar:






Hmmm...I have a flight from Orlando to Portland, ME on Saturday, with an hour to change planes in BWI around 1pm.

I wonder if they'll let the plane leave Orlando!
Quoting 245. washingtonian115:

And NAM says.."And you get 3 feet and you get three fee.Everyone gets three feeeet"



Damm!! NAM has a wider precip sheild compared to Euro. Dynamics could support a solid amount of lightning with that snow too. Wish I was there. I would be the Jim Cantore out there saying "Did you just see that"!
Quoting 241. pickettroad:




Before the chance of losing power fill the bathtub with water to use to flush the toilet.


And... stock up on needed meds for everybody, gas up the snowblower and generator if you have them, and stock up on canned soup, matches, baby wipes, hand sanitizer and bottled water before the storm. Also buy spare gas and fill every can. The local gas stations will not have any power either. I also visit the library and get a stock of books to entertain everyone. Good luck and positive vibes, we are gonna need lots of those too.
Closer View of 18z NAM.
259. Bonz
Anyone have the 12Z Euro?
Quoting 245. washingtonian115:

And NAM says.."And you get 3 feet and you get three fee.Everyone gets three feeeet"
img


Send it to Miami... I'd love to see 6" of snow fall in South Florida... And then watch the roads from a distance.
Quoting 255. fmbill:



Hmmm...I have a flight from Orlando to Portland, ME on Saturday, with an hour to change planes in BWI around 1pm.

I wonder if they'll let the plane leave Orlando!


You're in bad shape. I don't think you'll make it unless you change your transfer location to a different city.
Maximum potential snowfall amounts. Note; this is only through 7:00PM on Saturday; snow that falls after that would be obviously extra.

There is something to these incredible storms where I just cook the best meals of a lifetime. Got my oven stuffer that will be ready to roast on Saturday and stuffed too. Just something about a snow storm that brings out the wild in me to cook! The smell of snow... and yes I can smell snow and the dreamy love of something warm and good in an old fashioned oven is the best ever. Bring on the snow:)
Quoting 262. Neapolitan:

Maximum potential snowfall amounts. Note; this is only through 7:00PM on Saturday; snow that falls after that would be obviously extra.




Well, thanks, we could use a little "extra". The biggest snow I can remember in the warned area was 40 inches in February 2010, Hampshire Co. WV, but that came from 3 separate storms that hit one after the other. This one might be one for the records.
Quoting 261. Sfloridacat5:



You're in bad shape. I don't think you'll make it unless you change your transfer location to a different city.


I called Southwest and offered to fly a different route, but they said unless the airport closes the only way they would re-route is if I pay for it. Oh well...I tried.
Winter Storm Watch just posted for central NC through 6pm Saturday.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOCATIONS MOST IMPACTED WILL INCLUDE ALBEMARLE...
WADESBORO... NORTHEAST THROUGH SANFORD AND THE TRIANGLE AREA...
TO HENDERSON... WARRENTON... AND ROANOKE RAPIDS.

* HAZARD TYPES...A DANGEROUS WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA... FROM LATE THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS MOSTLY
SNOW AND SLEET... CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE... CLINTON... AND GOLDSBORO.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A BAND FROM ALBEMARLE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TRIANGLE REGION TO ROANOKE RAPIDS... WITH AMOUNTS
UNDER AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE...
CLINTON... AND GOLDSBORO. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO A HALF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE... WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FROM ALBEMARLE
THROUGH THE TRIANGLE TO WARRENTON.

* TIMING...THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A
TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT... THEN
ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BECOME DANGEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME
PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...FROM THE NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 NORTHWEST RANGING TO
AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HOLD FROM AROUND 30
TO THE MID 30S FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Hot off the press C FL.

NWS in Melbourne

FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN AL TWD N GA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IN THE MORNING AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL
LINE MAY DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE GULF THU NIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS E CENTRAL FL FROM LATE MORNING OR MID DAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS TO 35-45 KNOTS AT 850
MBS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT POINT TO THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS
WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
LAKE COUNTY TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.
Quoting 266. fmbill:



I called Southwest and offered to fly a different route, but they said unless the airport closes the only way they would re-route is if I pay for it. Oh well...I tried.


Yep.... Been there done that... Had the scary landing too.
I wonder how things will turn out for me along the Jersey Shore (Barnegat area) but here is our weather watch so far.

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Friday evening through
Sunday morning...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from Friday evening into Sunday
morning.

* Locations... southeastern Pennsylvania... southern New
Jersey... Delaware... and Maryland's upper Eastern Shore.

* Hazard types... heavy snow.

* Snow accumulations... snow accumulation of 12 to 16 inches in the
vicinity of the I-95 corridor... 8 to 12 inches over the northern
suburbs of Philadelphia... central New Jersey... and central
Delmarva. Lesser amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected over
southern portions of the Delmarva where a changeover to rain is
expected during the event.

* Timing... snow is expected to begin Friday evening... primarily
after the evening commute... then continue heavy at times into
Sunday morning.

* Winds... northeast 15 to 25 mph inland with gusts up to 35 mph.
Northeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph closer to
the coast.

* Temperatures... in the low 30s.

* Impacts... snow may be dry and puffy at the start, but will
become wetter and heavier as the event unfolds. Shoveling may be
problematic for those with physical ailments. Snow may cling to
wires and trees which may cause power outages. Roads will
become impassable due to increasing accumulation during the
event.

Tonight NOVA is airing a new program on the collapse of the krill stocks around Antarctica. I'm sure it will be available tomorrow online for those outside the US :

NOVA
Mystery Beneath the Ice Preview

What’s behind the death of a tiny creature with an outsized role in the Antarctic? Airing January 20, 2016 at 9 pm on PBS

Link
Just came back due to the NAM run..

Its the 18z run so hopefully its just overdoing it..

It went from this:
12z


to that:
18z


Quoting 258. Climate175:

Closer View of 18z NAM.


Lol, that gives me like what, 24"? State College says "Maximum is 17" ". >.< NWS is so on top of things, you can get anywhere from 1-17". Thanks guys.

Back at home, NWS discussion hasn't changed, but they issued a winter storm watch. State College has as well.
Here it is, energy going to move south and pick up Gulf moisture. Image from P.
Quoting 269. Dakster:



Yep.... Been there done that... Had the scary landing too.


Due to all the thunderstorms across the southeast right before Christmas it took my sister 3 days to make it to Florida from Richmond. She got stuck in Atlanta when all the flights out of Atlanta were cancelled.
Quoting 267. violet312s:

Winter Storm Watch just posted for central NC through 6pm Saturday
ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A BAND FROM ALBEMARLE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TRIANGLE REGION TO ROANOKE RAPIDS... WITH AMOUNTS
UNDER AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE...
CLINTON... AND GOLDSBORO. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO A HALF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE... WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FROM ALBEMARLE
THROUGH THE TRIANGLE TO WARRENTON.

*

Does anyone else think these totals look too low for Central NC?
Quoting 276. Chapelhill:


Does anyone else think these totals look too low for Central NC?


It says snow accumulation, doesn't account for ice I don't think. How much warm air gets into the area is key, this melts the crystals as they fall, then refreeze after it hits colder air beneath.
Quoting 276. Chapelhill:


Does anyone else think these totals look too low for Central NC?


I think so because if the Euro does indeed verify then NC/VA in for a major snowstorm. I am surprised to see so many all of a sudden praising the GFS when it was the GFS that busted Joaquin with showing the heaviest rain axis further north when indeed it was the Euro with its southern solution that panned out across SC/NC.
Quoting 277. win1gamegiantsplease:



It says snow accumulation, doesn't account for ice I don't think. How much warm air gets into the area is key, this melts the crystals as they fall, then refreeze after it hits colder air beneath.


Also could be some issues further north due to strong onshore flow which could keep some areas closer to the coast all rain. Lots of variables at play here.
Quoting 256. StormTrackerScott:



Damm!! NAM has a wider precip sheild compared to Euro. Dynamics could support a solid amount of lightning with that snow too. Wish I was there. I would be the Jim Cantore out there saying "Did you just see that"!


I haven't seen thunder snow since Sandy. It's actually a bit disconcerting, when all those flakes suddenly turn into tiny blue flashbulbs, and the thunder sounds different than a summer storm. It sounds like a thunderstorm going on inside the earth, kind of muffled and muted but the ground still shakes. Trippy! I would gladly shove this storm all the way to Miami Beach if I had the know-how.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago

Now in the 1-5 day window, Virginia looks to be the jackpot zone for snowfall w/regards to the upcoming winter storm
18z GFS loading, the countdown is on.
Quoting 281. goosegirl1:



I haven't seen thunder snow since Sandy. It's actually a bit disconcerting, when all those flakes suddenly turn into tiny blue flashbulbs, and the thunder sounds different than a summer storm. It sounds like a thunderstorm going on inside the earth, kind of muffled and muted but the ground still shakes. Trippy! I would gladly shove this storm all the way to Miami Beach if I had the know-how.


One time in my life my goal is to experience thundersnow. Your right the videos I've seen of it sounds different.
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 3m3 minutes ago
Liquid totals as is easily give Snowmageddon (2/5-6/10) a run for the money and IMO probably surpass it. Tree/structural issues possible.

Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 5m5 minutes ago
Storm could have characteristics of all three 09-10 blizzards. Maybe colder than 2/5-6 (more like 12/18-19), but winds more like Feb 9-10.
Quoting 243. PlazaRed:


You might get approximately an inch of water for every foot of snow. If it gets compacted by partial melting and more snow falls on top then a bit more than an inch of water per foot.
Every day the snow lays on the ground, you are losing water to the rivers, so the longer before the thaw the less water levels rise you get.


NWS Raleigh has warned of the potential for rivers to reach/breach flood stage this weekend, likely would happen no matter the precip type from what I read.

Quoting 246. Dakster:



May want to also fill jugs up with drinking water or buy gallons of water...

I like the outdoor grill and be prepared to use it outdoors, too many people try and use them indoors and that doesn't end well.

For summer storms I usually freeze a bunch of water in jugs to make locks of ice. They last a lot longer than a bag of ice cubes. Not sure that is going to be a problem in a snow storm.


Back when Joaquin was still a potential threat I made sure to save gallon jugs and 2-liters in case. Good call.

Quoting 274. Climate175:

Here it is, energy going to move south and pick up Gulf moisture. Image from P.
Looks to me the energy is crossing the Wyoming, Colorado and Utah border coming out of Idaho. 
Quoting 256. StormTrackerScott:



Damm!! NAM has a wider precip sheild compared to Euro. Dynamics could support a solid amount of lightning with that snow too. Wish I was there. I would be the Jim Cantore out there saying "Did you just see that"!


I remember reading the ILM coverage area could see thunder and possibly small hail within some of the downpours of rain from this system.
Quoting 289. nymore:


Looks to me the energy is crossing the Wyoming, Colorado and Utah border coming out of Idaho.
About.
18Z GFS ever so slightly more south again.

18z GFS

Will Jonas pick up some energy from subtropical jet.?

Quoting 260. Dakster:



Send it to Miami... I'd love to see 6" of snow fall in South Florida... And then watch the roads from a distance.


Easy there, Satan
18Z GFS moves low across Central Alabama now. Also has a squall line approaching western FL @ 12Z.

Quoting 284. StormTrackerScott:



One time in my life my goal is to experience thundersnow. Your right the videos I've seen of it sounds different.


Living in Orlando you may have a long wait.

It actually isn't rare in intense systems. My most dramatic case was with the Feb 1983 blizzard in New Jersey where the lightning was so close and frequent (less than 1000 feet away and more than 1/minute for half an hour) that it was dangerous to go out. Temperatures during this were in the upper teens.

Quoting 246. Dakster:



May want to also fill jugs up with drinking water or buy gallons of water...

I like the outdoor grill and be prepared to use it outdoors, too many people try and use them indoors and that doesn't end well.

For summer storms I usually freeze a bunch of water in jugs to make locks of ice. They last a lot longer than a bag of ice cubes. Not sure that is going to be a problem in a snow storm.


I freeze salt water 1 pound/gallon with green food dye to remind what it is, and put it in the freezer. Any open volume is filled with these. The freezer will stay cold a day or two longer with these.
If only the low could form 50 miles further out to sea...
GFS 18z looks great. Deformation band sets up over us.
I must be too deep into meteo, I find random model trash amusing :o

Ridiculous moisture


Quoting 302. Drakoen:

GFS 18z looks great. Deformation band sets up over us.


Moving so slowly too
Those who want snow will get it....most anyway..:)

Quoting 284. StormTrackerScott:



One time in my life my goal is to experience thundersnow. Your right the videos I've seen of it sounds different.

We had some the other week during our big snowstorm. It's definitely an experience. A low, booming sound that rattles the atmosphere and takes several seconds to dissipate, but not before the shock wave rattles your windows, almost as though the gas station a mile away just exploded or something. It's kind of the sonic equivalent of a mild earthquake.
--If Washington gets the "likely" total snowfall of 21", this weekend's event will be the second greatest 3-day snowfall in the city's history. The same will be true if the "most possible" amount of 28" falls.

--If Baltimore gets the "likely" total snowfall of 21", this weekend's event will be the fifth greatest 3-day snowfall in the city's history. If it sees the "most possible" amount of 27", it would be the single greatest 3-day snowfall in the city's history.

--If Dulles gets the "likely" total snowfall of 21", this weekend's event will be the third greatest 3-day snowfall in the city's history. If it sees the "most possible" amount of 25", it would be the single greatest 3-day snowfall in the city's history.

NOTE: the "likely' and "most possible" amounts are based on whatever falls through Saturday at 1900 EST.
Quoting 284. StormTrackerScott:



One time in my life my goal is to experience thundersnow. Your right the videos I've seen of it sounds different.


Happened to me on the only time it's ever snowed where I live on Christmas in my lifetime, five or six years ago. Pretty neat. And I agree with your input, the rain/snow line might be further inland but the chance of some sort of wintry precip (likely little to none sticking) does exist as this system moves out late Saturday/Sunday.
The 500mb low gets captured and stalls off the coast.
Quoting 196. Gearsts:

Is that what becomes the monster?
yes
Quoting 310. Drakoen:

The 500mb low gets captured and stalls off the coast.


Low moves back to the south at 84hour lmao

Mid Atlantic gets pounded on the loop. Looks like Boston may not even see more than a cloudy day :(
Quoting 306. hydrus:

Those who want snow will get it....most anyway..:)




Even the backside wants to say "talk to the hand" to ILM/MYR, though I think there's a chance some sort of wintry precip will mix in as the system leaves us. Just depends on how cool it gets after Friday.
Quoting 121. georgevandenberghe:



1994 was the year of extreme ice storms in the area. I sometimes (not entirely tongue in cheek) say half of the ice of the 20'th century fell that year.

1996 was an extreme snow year with two back to back heavy snows. Eastern suburbs got a third 4-6" in the middle. January 7-13 was the snow week, a week later 60F dewpoints with heavy rain arrived, melted all of it and caused massive flooding.




Another notable snow season was the one a few years back. That stands out in my mind because after the first big snow my frig went out. I tried to get out to shop for a new one in between storms. That didn't work so I used a few really big snowbanks in the back-yard. I did lose a pack of fish; no, not to varmints, I couldn't find where I'd buried it until rather too late when the weather warmed up. Oh, the frig? I called a repair guy (at great expense tho cheaper than new) because after a few more of these big snows, delivery trucks couldn't get in. And my frig is still happily running along.

That season a number of trees when down--and power, too a few times. Wore my snow shovel out too. (Grew up in MI so I know not to go cheap on these things.)

My house seems to be right in the middle for the jack-pot snow levels.
Quoting 289. nymore:


Looks to me the energy is crossing the Wyoming, Colorado and Utah border coming out of Idaho. 
Quoting 274. Climate175:

Here it is, energy going to move south and pick up Gulf moisture. Image from P.


I'm sitting in the dry slot , just behind the tail almost dead clam here. 60 F degrees . Tomorrow may reach 40 mph. This is a really creepy system.
08S is likely from JTWC with the formation of 03R northeast of Rodrigues Island

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #30
HURRICANE WARNING
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR, CATEGORY THREE (08F)
6:00 AM FST January 21 2016
=============================
South of Niue
East of Nukuʻalofa (Tonga)

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in force for Niue

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Victor, Category Three (970 hPa) located at 21.5S 169.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots. Position fair based on hourly GOES infrared imagery. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
==============
45 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
100 NM from the center in northern semi-circle
80 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=============
140 NM from the center in northern semi-circle
240 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
200 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Deep convection has flared up again in past 6 hours with cloud tops cooling near the center. Convective bands wrapping into the ragged eye. Organization remains good. Outflow good to the east. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low to moderate sheared environment. System is tracking west southwest due to the sub-tropical ridge located to the southeast. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with OW eye surrounded by MG yields DT=4.5, MET=4.5, PT=4.0. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS: 21.6S 170.7W - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 21.8S 172.2W - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 23.4S 175.3W - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
GALE WARNING
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 03-20152016
22:00 PM RET January 20 2016
==================================
Northeast of Rodrigues Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 03R (998 hPa) located at 14.3S 75.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 15.2S 74.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.6S 73.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 19.7S 71.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.9S 70.9E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
================
During the past 6 hours, deep convection has strengthened near the system center, but there was little improvement of the cloud organization, as depicted by the last microwave pictures (SSMIS-F-18 at 1419z). It is also difficult to identify accurately the low level circulation center. The upper vertical wind shear is weak and the upper divergence is favorable equatorward. In the lower levels, convergence is better on the equatorial side, but lower poleward, due to a weakness in the subtropical anticyclonic belt. The system has a general movement westward, under almost opposite steering flows in the lower levels (northerly monsoon flow, and east northeasterly trade flow).

For the next 24 hours, it is likely to move west southwestward. The upper level wind shear should remain weak, but the equatorial upper divergence should decrease.

On Thursday to Friday night, with the building of an upper level outflow channel poleward, ahead of a polar trough, the low will draw benefit from good upper level environmental conditions and deepen more rapidly. Consequently, it should be steered by a building ridge in the mid levels in its east, and track south southwestward on Friday, and bend southward on Saturday. From Sunday, ahead of an upper trough, the northwesterly vertical wind shear should increase and the ocean heat content decrease south of 26.0S. The low may weaken and begin an extratropical transition on Monday or Tuesday.

The available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the movement and the deepening of the system up to Saturday. The model guidance spread is increasing from Sunday.
322. MahFL
DC, 30 hours of snow ?
Quoting 320. RobertWC:



I'm sitting in the dry slot , just behind the tail almost dead clam here. 60 F degrees . Tomorrow may reach 40 mph. This is a really creepy system.
Thanks for the heads up! :)
Chi Ching.
Quoting 324. Climate175:



after this it will take 3 days to dig out

have enough supplies on hand for a min of 72 hrs after event

food water meds and so forth and so on
I am gaining more confidence in my alpha blocking powers with the 18z GFS run. No big snow for me, one year!!!!!!!
Quoting 276. Chapelhill:


Does anyone else think these totals look too low for Central NC?


Sleet, freezing rain, and possibly even rain mixing in will limit the snow totals. Ice may be a bigger concern
Quoting 323. Climate175:

Thanks for the heads up! :)

The last of my 3 foot snow drift in front of my computer is still hangin on. That was 25 days ago. ( It's in the shade ). I didn't leave the house for 3 days.

As for picking models, the Euro nailed Sandy exactly, nearly a week before it came ashore.
All the spaghetti plots bent back to it, it barely moved.
The full moon, SLR, and this fetch off Virginia Beach could be the sleeper on this storm.

Does this thing have name yet ?
329. MahFL
Quoting 328. RobertWC:


Does this thing have name yet ?


Jonas.
330. redux
Quoting 328. RobertWC:


The last of my 3 foot snow drift in front of my computer is still hangin on. That was 25 days ago. ( It's in the shade ). I didn't leave the house for 3 days.

As for picking models, the Euro nailed Sandy exactly, nearly a week before it came ashore.
All the spaghetti plots bent back to it, it barely moved.
The full moon, SLR, and this fetch off Virginia Beach could be the sleeper on this storm.

Does this thing have name yet ?


my name is jonas
Winter Weather Preparedness: Know Before It Snows.
By: Portlight , 4:19 PM CST on January 20, 2016


As the Northeast braces for what is forecast to be an historic blizzard, here are some general tips for preparing for winter weather, and some specifically for people living with disabilities:

People with disabilities may want to take extra care during the cold weather season. Some disabling conditions may limit sensory abilities and the ability to maintain body heat, so be particularly vigilant about staying warm when you are out in low temperatures.

Wear multiple layers of clothing, including a scarf around your neck, a winter hat, lined boots and two pairs of socks.

If possible, wear thermal gloves underneath mittens to keep your hands warm.

It’s also a good idea to carry a cell phone.



Remember to check with your neighbors, the elderly, and those who may not be aware the Storm is coming.
Quoting 287. bjrabbit:

Excuse me sir, but we were told that we would never see snow earlier this century. So much for "settled science"

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/02/the-big-lis t-of-failed-climate-predictions/




None of the predictions at that link are for the end of snow in the US.

In any event, that Earth is rapidly warming and that humans are the dominant cause of that rapid warming are settled science.
333. MahFL
NWS is sending up wx balloons 4 times a day for Jonas, instead of 2 times.
334. MahFL
Quoting 331. Patrap:

and those who may not be aware the Storm is coming.



How are you supposed to know who these people are ?, mind read them ?
Maybe you missed the part about check with'..as I never use the words shut in's, or Homeless if I can get by with logic.

But thanks for the edit.

: )


Quoting 199. StormTrackerScott:



Nothing going on here Washi cold and 66 here in Orlando. yes cold and 66 I say.


67.5 here today, which is average (67/44)...
Quoting 330. redux:



my name is jonas


I'm carrying the wheel
Southern severe weather - including a potentially significant event across the deep south and central Gulf Coast - followed by a potentially historic snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic/lower New England from the same storm system? Yes please.
Quoting 329. MahFL:



Jonas.




or



(If anyone remembers Jonas from Twister)
Quoting 338. KoritheMan:

Southern severe weather - including a potentially significant event across the deep south and central Gulf Coast - followed by a potentially historic snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic/lower New England from the same storm system? Yes please.


Im betting McComb gets 6 inches...easy.

: P
Quoting 154. Naga5000:



Maybe linking to the study instead of the Fox news commentary would be a good start.


Hypothesis

I am amused that Sandy82579 would link to such an article since FOX is notorious for having commentators that will claim that man is too puny to impact the global climate. Yet here is a hypothesis that suggests man's act of farming, when there were far fewer people than today, could have warmed the climate back then. Some people are not able to comprehend the word "anthropogenic"?
Quoting 328. RobertWC:


The last of my 3 foot snow drift in front of my computer is still hangin on. That was 25 days ago. ( It's in the shade ). I didn't leave the house for 3 days.

As for picking models, the Euro nailed Sandy exactly, nearly a week before it came ashore.
All the spaghetti plots bent back to it, it barely moved.
The full moon, SLR, and this fetch off Virginia Beach could be the sleeper on this storm.

Does this thing have name yet ?

Bob, we don't seem to be too preoccupied with names this year for, "some reason?" I have not heard a mention of them since Alex the January Bold Stalker!

Meanwhile I think that anybody on the north eastern seaboard should keep an eye on this problem with the gulf Streams lack of zest, leading to a possible rise in above the normal sea levels.
I wrote this on the RS site a while back.

I am thinking that what also has to be considered, or taken into account, is that with the slowing of the Gulf Stream, then the sea level at the coasts will be higher than what it would be with a normal Gulf Stream!
This kind of effect can be described as a by product of global warming via possibly several different channels which then result in effect that the local population would not normally expect.
Hence what your, or their chart says the “high” tide will be, is in fact lower than what actually happens.
In reality the high tide is several units of measurement above what is predicted!
This is a generally unexpected side effect of the CO2 warming and its side effects into the real physical world.

I am hoping that none of the possible problems of high tide, storm force winds and freezing conditions will prevail to cause untold problems but please be careful with this situation.
Quoting 340. Patrap:



Im betting McComb gets 6 inches...easy.

: P


You'll get 3 inches, and I'll get 5.

It's done.
Quoting 330. redux:



my name is jonas
Ha Ha ! Good one! That's hysterical!!!!
Just to think a month ago we were talking about the expected record warmth. Fast forward, and we are talking about an impending Blizzard. Ah El-Nino.
Quoting 303. GeorgiaStormz:

I must be too deep into meteo, I find random model trash amusing :o




Holy crap, that would put NYC and Long Island in what....a 36 to 45 inch snowfall??? ROTFLMAO......I would just have to buy that 15 cases of wine now.
quoting #328. RobertWC

(snip)
Does this thing have name yet ?


Yes, I am Called "DOOM"
Quoting 343. KoritheMan:



You'll get 3 inches, and I'll get 5.

It's done.


It could happen.

Quoting 340. Patrap:



Im betting McComb gets 6 inches...easy.

: P
Good evenin Pat..GFS has us down for 9...I doubt it , but if that much D-dust fell here, its the most i,ve seen...i hope it goes down...:)
Quoting 345. Climate175:

Just to think a month ago we were talking about the expected record warmth. Fast forward, and we are talking about an impending Blizzard. Ah El-Nino.

At least there's no arctic air involved, if that's any comfort to major cities under 2 feet of snow.
352. NNYer
I'm too far north for snow this time.
Quoting 346. longislander102:



Holy crap, that would put NYC and Long Island in what....a 36 to 45 inch snowfall??? ROTFLMAO......I would just have to buy that 15 cases of wine now.
bury the island from end to end
Quoting 276. Chapelhill:


Does anyone else think these totals look too low for Central NC?


It looks like triangle will be at edge of snow/ice/rain -AGAIN. Some nearby areas will have problems and others will be ok. It's certainly frustrating 'cause you gotta do something to prepare...

I just talked to new neighbors. They said, we're from Ohio... there can't be many problems here. I told them: don't count on that. Oh well.
Quoting 338. KoritheMan:
Southern severe weather - including a potentially significant event across the deep south and central Gulf Coast - followed by a potentially historic snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic/lower New England from the same storm system? Yes please.
No mention of severe in the JAX-NWS disco- but- they are upping their wording a little.

It's a trend to follow.
For Northern SC

...SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
AND MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN. A WINTRY
MIX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING FREEZING RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WHICH MAY RESULT IN
TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SCZ015-016-211200-
/O.NEW.KCAE.WS.A.0001.160122T0600Z-160124T0000Z/
LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LANCASTER...ELGIN...LANCASTER MILL...
CHERAW...PAGELAND
531 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
0.25 INCH OR MORE OF ICING IS POSSIBLE.

* OTHER IMPACTS...LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1225 PM PST WED JAN 20 2016

...MORE RAIN ON THE WAY BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY...
...HEAVIEST RAIN FORECAST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

A FEW LOCAL SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE UPWARD OF 6".

CALIFORNIA KING TIDE WILL ALSO OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING AT 6.6 FEET WITH A NEARLY IDENTICAL TIDAL HEIGHT SATURDAY MORNING AT 1030 AM OF 6.5 FEET. THE OTHER HIGH TIDE WILL BE 5.2 FEET AT 1139 PM FRIDAY NIGHT.

A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS.
Quoting 350. hydrus:

Good evenin Pat..GFS has us down for 9...I doubt it , but if that much D-dust fell here, its the most i,ve seen...i hope it goes down...:)


Evening up dere

Good luck,

I think...?


Quoting 355. aquak9:

No mention of severe in the JAX-NWS disco- but- they are upping their wording a little.

It's a trend to follow.



WHILE SLIGHT RISK/15% PROBABILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED
ATTM...A CORRIDOR OF GREATER RISK COULD BECOME APPARENT IN LATER
FORECASTS...POSSIBLY WARRANTING AN UPGRADE TO A HIGHER RISK AREA.


The NAM looks worse..1032 mb high so close to the deepening 990 mb low..

What about North Carolina> This is too DC centric.

Slow moving but strong cold front headed toward California with deep surface level flow coming from near Hawaii as well as from the subtropical Pacific west of Mexico.

Large associated low will spin a trough or secondary front in with very cold air aloft. 2 feet of snow is forecast for the Sierra at the same time the Mid Atlantic is forecast to have 2 feet in places.
Quoting 332. DCSwithunderscores:



None of the predictions at that link are for the end of snow in the US.

In any event, that Earth is rapidly warming and that humans are the dominant cause of that rapid warming are settled science.
The second comment at the WUWT link nails it:

'Wow.. this post is of a quality that I’d expect from spam email. It is extremely poorly sourced. Most entries are completely devoid of context about the range of time these predictions are supposed to occur by, and there are even predictions that specify ranges of years that are still decades away, yet are somehow already considered “failed.”'


Fortunately denier spams like "bjrabbit"'s in 287 are becoming rare here. Even so, when evidenceless assertions like that do pop up IMO they should be flagged and deleted. Please help with that!
Quoting 360. KoritheMan:


WHILE SLIGHT RISK/15% PROBABILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED
ATTM...A CORRIDOR OF GREATER RISK COULD BECOME APPARENT IN LATER
FORECASTS...POSSIBLY WARRANTING AN UPGRADE TO A HIGHER RISK AREA.
Yep, you got it.

and we got more coming down the pike here in the next week or ten days, too.
Quoting 268. StormTrackerScott:

Hot off the press C FL.

NWS in Melbourne

FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN AL TWD N GA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IN THE MORNING AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL
LINE MAY DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE GULF THU NIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS E CENTRAL FL FROM LATE MORNING OR MID DAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS TO 35-45 KNOTS AT 850
MBS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT POINT TO THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS
WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
LAKE COUNTY TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.


Yeah dynamics and CAPE look to be in the marginal risk range. There shouldn't be any widespread severe, not any where close to the major gulf low this past weekend. Though the LLJ and shear will be strong enough for marginal risk for an isolated severe cell or two. The upper system is strong enough such that everyone should get decent rainfall though due to strong forcing.
Quoting 355. aquak9:

No mention of severe in the JAX-NWS disco- but- they are upping their wording a little.

It's a trend to follow.



That's a bit odd given that Tallahassee and Tampa have mentioned it for a couple days now.
- duplicate removed -
Quoting 341. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Hypothesis

I am amused that Sandy82579 would link to such an article since FOX is notorious for having commentators that will claim that man is too puny to impact the global climate. Yet here is a hypothesis that suggests man's act of farming, when there were far fewer people than today, could have warmed the climate back then. Some people are not able to comprehend the word "anthropogenic"?


Bingo !

Sandy82579 ................... Subscribes to the "PUNY HUMANS HYPOTHESIS"

Which runs as follows :

Man is small , the Earth is large , therefore man has no impact on the Earth.

All of which is based on a view of the world from one's from porch . As know as , " Common Sense Conservatism " .

Which means ................ " My ignorance , is just valid as your learning "


Quoting 341. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Hypothesis

I am amused that Sandy82579 would link to such an article since FOX is notorious for having commentators that will claim that man is too puny to impact the global climate. Yet here is a hypothesis that suggests man's act of farming, when there were far fewer people than today, could have warmed the climate back then. Some people are not able to comprehend the word "anthropogenic"?


Bingo !

Sandy82579 ................... Subscribes to the "PUNY HUMANS HYPOTHESIS"

Which runs as follows :

Man is small , the Earth is large , therefore man has no impact on the Earth.

All of which is based on a view of the world from one's from porch . As know as , " Common Sense Conservatism " .

Which means ................ " My ignorance , is just valid as your learning "


I really feel for the mets in the Raleigh-Durham area. Yet again we are going to be right on or near the rain line and there is really no way to predict it.

I have to make the call on our charity event at 9pm Thursday evening. I doubt they will have a much better idea even by then.
The other blogs aren't showing up for me? Whats going on here?
Quoting 341. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Hypothesis

I am amused that Sandy82579 would link to such an article since FOX is notorious for having commentators that will claim that man is too puny to impact the global climate. Yet here is a hypothesis that suggests man's act of farming, when there were far fewer people than today, could have warmed the climate back then. Some people are not able to comprehend the word "anthropogenic"?


Bingo !

Sandy82579 ................... Subscribes to the "PUNY HUMANS HYPOTHESIS"

Which runs as follows :

Man is small , the Earth is large , therefore man has no impact on the Earth.

All of which is based on a view of the world from one's from porch . As know as , " Common Sense Conservatism " .

Which means ................ " My ignorance , is just valid as your learning "


Snow is falling and immediately sticking to the roadways.
Quoting 346. longislander102:



Holy crap, that would put NYC and Long Island in what....a 36 to 45 inch snowfall??? ROTFLMAO......I would just have to buy that 15 cases of wine now.


Yeah it's a university research use model way over it's head in predicting storms haha
Quoting 222. StormTrackerScott:



Both GFS and Euro showing a rain maker come next Wednesday & Thursday across FL. Totals could be in the 1" to 3" range across C & S FL next week.

BTW Euro is blasting FL come February with some serious rainfall accums compared to average in many cases 3 to 5 time what is average for February.


A lot of Florida has already had 2-3 times the January average precip, and February average precip is a bit higher around 3 inches vs 2 in February. My parents in the Tampa Bay area have had 4.83 for January so far, and the Tampa Bay area has had less than a lot of areas. A lot of SW FL has had 5-7 so far for the month.

Long term guidance certainly isn't backing off the parade of storm systems to impact the area either. The El Nino mess in is full swing. BTW if we get more stronger gulf systems with tracks that far south in February and March like we had last weekend combing with higher CAPE like we often start to see in February and March, the results would be scary dangerous.

Most don't realize that low instability is all that separated that event from already being destructive, compared to higher instability which would have likely allowed for a widespread severe event with maybe a100 mph squall line and violent EF3-EF4 tornadoes and one of the worst FL outbreaks in history and one of the worst in the winter in the U.S. Imagine if that storm system had 1500-3000 J/KG CAPE to work with? Yikes...
- duplicate removed -

There seems to have been some sort of hiccup in the software.
Quoting 323. Climate175:

Thanks for the heads up! :)

The last of my 3 foot snow drift in front of my computer is still hangin on. That was 25 days ago. ( It's in the shade ). I didn't leave the house for 3 days.

As for picking models, the Euro nailed Sandy exactly, nearly a week before it came ashore.
All the spaghetti plots bent back to it, it barely moved.
The full moon, SLR, and this fetch off Virginia Beach could be the sleeper on this storm.

Does this thing have name yet ?
Quoting 115. hydrus:

168 hrs..





Snow accumulation keeps keeping closer to me in FL in the long term, even if we don't see any frozen stuff, the extended is looking like more major cold events around here. An increasing snow pack to the north combined with the southern stream remaining active from El Nino and models looking consistently robust with deep upper troughs digging well into FL means we are getting our version of the "deep freeze".

We haven't had any days well below average or anywhere near records. But most highs and lows have been below average so far this month. Only a handful of days have been near average to slightly above.
Quoting 330. redux:



my name is jonas


my name is wepeel.
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
546 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

VALID 00Z THU JAN 21 2016 - 00Z SUN JAN 24 2016





...CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TN/SOUTHERN OH VALLEYS INTO MID-ATL
STATES AND SOUTHEAST...

A MOIST AND DYNAMIC SPLIT FLOW SYSTEM OVER THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST WILL REACH THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURS
MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF DIGGING UPPER DYNAMICS REACHING THE
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF FORMING A MID TO UPPER CLOSED
LOW OVER KS/NE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST OF SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS
ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOR LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS
FROM ERN/CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL NE.

ON THURSDAY...DIFFERENT STREAMS OF FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHOW
SIGNS OF PHASING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND LEAD TO A DEVELOPING
HIGH SOCIETAL IMPACT WINTER STORM. THE MID TO UPPER LOW AND
VORTICITY WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD AR/NRN MS TO ESTABLISH AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO AND
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD... BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND OVERRUN INTO MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR MASS. THE RESULTANT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAVY SNOW
AND LENGTHY TRANSITION ZONE ALONG A VERY SIMILAR AXIS FROM AR INTO
KY AND THE APPALACHIAN SPINE WHILE SPILLING OVER EAST OF THE MTNS
INTO SWRN VA/WEST CENTRAL NC.

ON FRIDAY... A FULL FLEDGED MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM WITH THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER CIRCULATIONS TRACKING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST... WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH
MS/AL WILL WEAKEN AND A NEW COASTAL LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE
CAROLINAS COAST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WITH THE GUIDANCE STILL
REVOLVE PRIMARILY WITH TIMING THE AMOUNT OF NORTHWARD PROPAGATION
OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND MOISTURE. BREAKING ITS STRIDE...THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS SPED UP AND IT BECAME A FAST/EASTERN OUTLIER. THE
20/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND THE 20/06Z GEFS HAD THE BEST AGREEMENT
IN TERMS OF POSITION AND AMOUNT...AND WAS THE WPC QPF PREFERRED
APPROACH. USING THIS RESULTED IN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMOUNTS FROM
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WHILE ACCOUNTING FOR A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT.


BANN

Okay, who broke WU?
Quoting 376. Drakoen:

Snow is falling and immediately sticking to the roadways.



Light snow here in DC Metro area. Nice big flakes by me.
Henry Margusity believes ocean temps will cause the coastal low to drop at least 10 mb,s lower then the models show due to warm ocean temps.

Quoting 381. Jedkins01:



Snow accumulation keeps keeping closer to me in FL in the long term, even if we don't see any frozen stuff, the extended is looking like more major cold events around here. An increasing snow pack to the north combined with the southern stream remaining active from El Nino and models looking consistently robust with deep upper troughs digging well into FL means we are getting our version of the "deep freeze".

We haven't had any days well below average or anywhere near records. But most highs and lows have been below average so far this month. Only a handful of days have been near average to slightly above.
Greetings Jed.. I have heard severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, thundersnow , high winds, feet of snow, icing, and sleet, and rapid deepening...I do believe we have the classic set up for a major winter storm...Phasing is looking better every run...throwing in another variable to make forecasting a nightmare...
Lots of Echo in here today. Or should I saw Deja Vu posts, same thing over and over, in triplicate sometimes....
Quoting 388. hydrus:

Henry Margusity believes ocean temps will cause the coastal low to drop at least 10 mb,s lower then the models show due to warm ocean temps.




Hydrus,

The forecast is for 25 to 35 mph winds and 82 percent humidity in D.C. Saturday. If that low drops another 10mb, what is that going to do to the wind?
Still north of me but not by much. Trend is shifting southward.

Quoting 356. win1gamegiantsplease:

For Northern SC

...SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
AND MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN. A WINTRY
MIX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING FREEZING RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT
ICING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WHICH MAY RESULT IN
TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SCZ015-016-211200-
/O.NEW.KCAE.WS.A.0001.160122T0600Z-160124T0000Z/
LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LANCASTER...ELGIN...LANCASTER MILL...
CHERAW...PAGELAND
531 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
0.25 INCH OR MORE OF ICING IS POSSIBLE.

* OTHER IMPACTS...LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
amylindahlwu doesn't have a bio yet!
Edit (#394): And gone. Very nice. An admin troll!
I'm so ready for the rain to stop.
397. MahFL
Lake Shasta in CA is filling up:

Current Storage: 1,800,690 AF
40% of Total Capacity
60% of Historical Avg. For This Date

It's up 10% since Jan 1.
Quoting 391. PedleyCA:

Lots of Echo in here today. Or should I saw Deja Vu posts, same thing over and over, in triplicate sometimes....


Let's change the subject up a bit then, heard our future snowmaker barely gave you guys any rain. What's this week's forecast in that regard looking like? I see an elongated ull west of Vancouver Island.
Please be mindful of the elderly, those shut in and those on the Streets.




Quoting 376. Drakoen:

Snow is falling and immediately sticking to the roadways.
Yes, the test-run before the real deal.
Quoting 392. Qazulight:



Hydrus,

The forecast is for 25 to 35 mph winds and 82 percent humidity in D.C. Saturday. If that low drops another 10mb, what is that going to do to the wind?
Greetings Q..Well, its proximity to the 1032 mb high to the west and north may increase the pressure gradient, but this is a weird system. Notice the isobars close together. Another important aspect is the system is expected to stall for a bit before heading out to sea. The longer it remains stationary, the longer the dangerous conditions. A few spots showing windspeeds over 90KTS at 5000 ft ( 850 mbs ) . This is not a small storm either.... This will be one for the books.

Quoting 395. barbamz:

amylindahlwu doesn't have a bio yet!


She did however pen this treatise on solar radiation.

Sunshine
By: amylindahlwu, 7:39 PM GMT on January 11, 2016

Sunshine is awesome.

Been crunching these numbers down in Mb to overall isobars to wind speeds over the Se La, and Miss Gulf Coast. Those post squall line Nw winds are gonna rip..esp on the S Shore of Lake Pontchartrain just a mile N of me.


The overall envelope is really going to tap those Warm Western Atlantic SST's.


Historic may jus be the term .

Quoting 404. Patrap:

Been crunching these numbers down in Mb to overall isobars to wind speeds over the Se La, and Miss Gulf Coast. Those post squall line Nw winds are gonna rip..esp on the S Shore of Lake Pontchartrain just a mile N of me.


The overall envelope is really going to tap that Warm Wester Atlantic SST's.


Historic may jus be the term .


I knew that Nino jet was gonna slam into some of dat Arctic air sooner or later...I bet we will see a couple more before spring gets here. Spring will likely produce some powerful squall lines...Hope all are safe...:)
Quoting 403. Patrap:



Good catch, Pat! They're among us. And watch the chemtrails, lol!
Quoting 398. win1gamegiantsplease:



Let's change the subject up a bit then, heard our future snowmaker barely gave you guys any rain. What's this week's forecast in that regard looking like? I see an elongated ull west of Vancouver Island.


The folks in the North got a decent amount. I got .06" and was lucky that it even bothered to hit my area as it wasn't but a 20% chance, but at the last minute it went up to 80%and we got some. Starting to look like El Nino is going to get down to business out here too. Next rain chance 1/29 here....
We are experiencing spikes in traffic that are leading to delays in downloading images from this site, especially when accessing the GFS model data. We expect to implement a solution to this issue by 1/27/2016. We appreciate your patience.

-NCEP


Does this mean a fix or just "by then the storm will be gone"
Quoting 407. PedleyCA:



The folks in the North got a decent amount. I got .06" and was lucky that it even bothered to hit my area as it wasn't but a 20% chance, but at the last minute it went up to 80%and we got some. Starting to look like El Nino is going to get down to business out here too. Next rain chance 1/29 here....


Up in NorCal - feeling that the soil saturation levels in my yard are definitely picking up. Not sure when it's the point of over saturation but that's an interesting experiment to run in my yard.

From rock hard soil to a moist level is relieving.
I'm tryin' change this water to wine

Link
Another space oddity, *shudder*. I'll better hit my cushions now ... This new finding won't affect the upcoming blizzard though. Good night everyone!
Researchers find evidence of a real ninth planet
PhysOrg, January 20, 2016 by Kimm Fesenmaier
Caltech researchers have found evidence of a giant planet tracing a bizarre, highly elongated orbit in the outer solar system. The object, which the researchers have nicknamed Planet Nine, has a mass about 10 times that of Earth and orbits about 20 times farther from the sun on average than does Neptune (which orbits the sun at an average distance of 2.8 billion miles). In fact, it would take this new planet between 10,000 and 20,000 years to make just one full orbit around the sun. ...
Quoting 413. barbamz:

Another space oddity, *shudder*. I'll better hit my cushions now ... This new finding won't affect the upcoming blizzard though. Good night everyone!
Researchers find evidence of a real ninth planet
PhysOrg, January 20, 2016 by Kimm Fesenmaier
Caltech researchers have found evidence of a giant planet tracing a bizarre, highly elongated orbit in the outer solar system. The object, which the researchers have nicknamed Planet Nine, has a mass about 10 times that of Earth and orbits about 20 times farther from the sun on average than does Neptune (which orbits the sun at an average distance of 2.8 billion miles). In fact, it would take this new planet between 10,000 and 20,000 years to make just one full orbit around the sun. ...


Saw this today, as well as the discovery of the largest prime number, over 22 million digits
Notice the tight low moving south at the top right hand corner..

Quoting 413. barbamz:

Another space oddity, *shudder*. I'll better hit my cushions now ... This new finding won't affect the upcoming blizzard though. Good night everyone!
Researchers find evidence of a real ninth planet
PhysOrg, January 20, 2016 by Kimm Fesenmaier
Caltech researchers have found evidence of a giant planet tracing a bizarre, highly elongated orbit in the outer solar system. The object, which the researchers have nicknamed Planet Nine, has a mass about 10 times that of Earth and orbits about 20 times farther from the sun on average than does Neptune (which orbits the sun at an average distance of 2.8 billion miles). In fact, it would take this new planet between 10,000 and 20,000 years to make just one full orbit around the sun. ...



Related article:
Video: Planet 9: Good evidence for another planet in solar system, Caltech scientists say | 89.3 KPCC
Quoting 413. barbamz:

Another space oddity, *shudder*. I'll better hit my cushions now ... This new finding won't affect the upcoming blizzard though. Good night everyone!
Researchers find evidence of a real ninth planet
PhysOrg, January 20, 2016 by Kimm Fesenmaier
Caltech researchers have found evidence of a giant planet tracing a bizarre, highly elongated orbit in the outer solar system. The object, which the researchers have nicknamed Planet Nine, has a mass about 10 times that of Earth and orbits about 20 times farther from the sun on average than does Neptune (which orbits the sun at an average distance of 2.8 billion miles). In fact, it would take this new planet between 10,000 and 20,000 years to make just one full orbit around the sun. ...

The worst film ever made was "Planet 9 from Outer Space"
The clipper was like "did you forget about me?" Almost to 2 inches now
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
338 PM CST Wednesday Jan 20 2016

..slight risk of severe weather across the area Thursday
afternoon and evening... 




Synopsis...

High pressure currently centered near Chicago. One low pressure
near Rapid City South Dakota with a trough/cold front southward into
West Texas. Another...weaker...low was centered near Jackson
Mississippi with a weak front into southeast Texas.

Radar shows only isolated showers across the area this afternoon.
Partly cloudy skies across the north half of the area...and mostly
cloudy skies south of Lake Pontchartrain. Temperatures ranging
from the middle 60s to lower 70s across the area with dew points
generally in the upper 50s.

&&

Short term...

Main forecast issue will be threat of severe weather associated
with low pressure moving through the lower Mississippi River
valley Thursday and Friday. Current boundary just to the northwest
of the area is not expected to make much headway eastward over the
next 24 hours. Only isolated to scattered showers expected
overnight into Thursday morning.

Powerful shortwave will roll out of The Rockies into North Texas
Thursday morning which will begin deepening low pressure over East
Texas. This low pressure center will be north of Lake Charles by
00z Friday...and into north Alabama by 12z Friday. Models appear
to be coming around to similar solutions on depth of surface low.
Upper trough does not become negatively tilted until Friday
morning...when the trough axis will be east of the area.

Track of the surface low puts our area firmly in the warm sector
of the system. Kinematics will not be an issue with this system.
As has been the case for multiple systems this winter...the issue
is whether sufficient instability exists for thunderstorms. NAM
solutions have been consistent that instability will be
sufficient...near 1000 j/kg...while the GFS has forecasted only
limited instability...less than 500 for much of the area. Lapse
rates near 6.5c/km. Will trend above the GFS solution on convective available potential energy as
moisture return is already better than anticipated this morning.
Expectation is for convection to develop or move into the
Atchafalaya River basin by middle-afternoon tomorrow and move across
our area through the evening hours...exiting to the east between
06z and 09z Friday. Main threat is damaging winds...but with wet
bulb zero levels near 9000 feet...hail also a threat.

Once the front clears the area early Friday morning...cold air
dumps in. Stratus wrapping around the upper low will likely keep
skies cloudy during the day on Friday. Little or no temperature
recovery is anticipated during the day Friday with many areas
remaining in the 40s all day. Clouds will depart for Friday night
and Saturday. Temperatures will be cold with freezes likely across
the north half Saturday morning...but no worse than what has
already been experienced this season. 35

&&
421. SuzK
Quoting 390. Patrap:




This is what I call a dynamic map!! Hold on to your hats, its gonna be a weird winter/spring/winter/spring. The big belches of hot air the ocean is bedewing us with are adding to the havoc. We are so fortunate to live during such a moment in history...until we aren't. Still, 40 yrs of watching while it all comes true gives a person a certain sense of validaton. Even from childhood my first crush was Detroit's local weatherman, Jerry Hodak. I bought his little book when I was 10. I read the reports of the 70's about the future of the world....so far Ive not been disappointed. I am excited about science and what is happening. VisO you keep me laughing, every time. Thank you all for near-constant excellent reading, every day. And maps. More maps. You can't have too many maps.
Quoting 418. washingtonian115:

The clipper was like "did you forget about me?" Almost to 2 inches now


Niceeeee
Good explanation from Raleigh/Durham NWS Office:
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH POSTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NC...

WHILE NOT SET IN STONE JUST YET...THINGS ARE COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS
FOR THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY STORM. THE GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS HAS
BEEN TO PUSH THE SYSTEM...AND COLDER AIR...IN A SUBTLE WAY FARTHER
SOUTH. WHAT THIS DOES IS INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 64.

PRECIP EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM SW TO
NE THURSDAY NIGHT...STARTING AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT NEAR THE
SC BORDER...AND REACHING THE VA BORDER JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. AT
THE ONSET...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...TEMPS
THAT AREN`T ALREADY BELOW 32F WILL QUICKLY DROP BELOW FREEZING...
SETTING THE STAGE TO FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF HWY 64...WHILE
NORTH OF 64 THE PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET. THEN
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND THE LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE SURGES
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE H8 LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...LOOK FOR
PRECIP SOUTH OF HWY 64 TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGE
TO RAIN...WHILE NORTH OF HWY 64...FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BECOME
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE OUR FAR NW
ZONES (FORSYTH AND NW GUILFORD COUNTIES)...WHERE SNOW WILL LINGER
THE LONGEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...THE RAIN/FREEZING-FROZEN LINE
IS EXPECTED TO BE RUNNING ALONG A LINE FROM ALBEMARLE TO SANFORD TO
RALEIGH TO ROCKY MOUNT. SOUTH OF THIS LINE EXPECT ALL RAIN AS THE P-
TYPE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING...WHILE NORTH OF THIS
LINE FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN P-TYPE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK IN AS THE SFC LOW OFF THE VA COAST EXITS TO THE NE...AND
ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. RIGHT NOW...QPF VALUES
FOR SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY LOW...SO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE AN
INCH OR LESS FOR MOST.

A COUPLE ITEMS WORTH NOTING INCLUDE:
- OVERALL...THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS...IN TERMS OF SNOW AND
ICE ACCUMULATION AND RESULTING IMPACTS...ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
- GENERALLY EXPECTING A 1/4 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALBEMARLE TO PINEHURST TO
SMITHFIELD TO WILSON. A NARROW SWATH OF 1/2 INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE FROM ASHEBORO TO BURLINGTON AND HILLSBOROUGH...TO HENDERSON.
WE USUALLY START GETTING REPORTS OF FALLING BRANCHES AND
POWER OUTAGES ONCE THE ICE ACCUMULATES 1/4 INCH OR MORE.
- THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IN OUR CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
FORSYTH AND NW GUILFORD COUNTIES...WHERE 8-12 INCHES OF SNOW
ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION.
- IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACK
AND SUBSEQUENT COLDER AIR...WE`D HAVE TO SHIFT THE AFOREMENTIONED
ITEMS AND IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH.
- THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND
THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY CUT OFF THE PRECIP SOONER THAN EXPECTED...
WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY LESSEN THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS.
- PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SATURDAY SNOW/FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS. MODEL QPF VALUES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ARE
PRETTY LIGHT...BUT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE WETTER.
STAY TUNED!
Quoting 409. GeorgiaStormz:

We are experiencing spikes in traffic that are leading to delays in downloading images from this site, especially when accessing the GFS model data. We expect to implement a solution to this issue by 1/27/2016. We appreciate your patience.

-NCEP


Does this mean a fix or just "by then the storm will be gone"
My guess is the "by then the storm will be gone" option. :-)
Quoting 420. Gearsts:




Quoting 422. GeorgiaStormz:



Niceeeee
People were so focused on the blizzard they forgot about this.Accidents have been reported.I went out and the melted snow on the car tracks have turned into ice.This is like natures way to stop people from preparing.
Quoting 402. gr8lakebreeze:



She did however pen this treatise on solar radiation.

Sunshine
By: amylindahlwu, 7:39 PM GMT on January 11, 2016

Sunshine is awesome.


I've often said the very same thing...just don't need an entire blog to do so. :-)
423.snow2fire

LOOK FOR
PRECIP SOUTH OF HWY 64 TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGE
TO RAIN...WHILE NORTH OF HWY 64...FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BECOME
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE OUR FAR NW
ZONES (FORSYTH AND NW GUILFORD COUNTIES)...WHERE SNOW WILL LINGER
THE LONGEST.


Neat
In other weather news, long range progs are showing rain on the Super Bowl, not a surprise in this season of the El Nino Parade.
I see forecast highs of 33 and 32 at DCA on Friday and Saturday, and highs of 34 and 32 where I live. I would prefer to see highs stay in the 20s--ideally mid 20s to get the highest accumulations. DCA and DMH will probably stay below 15" if the temperature gets to freezing in the afternoon.
Quoting 397. MahFL:

Lake Shasta in CA is filling up:

Current Storage: 1,800,690 AF
40% of Total Capacity
60% of Historical Avg. For This Date

It's up 10% since Jan 1.

That dam supplies a good chunk of the water used by agriculture in the Central Valley, so good for our food supply.
423. snow2fire

Thanks. That is the best synopsis they have given thus far.

In summary "Ummm...it depends where you are. As usual" lol
Quoting 407. PedleyCA:



The folks in the North got a decent amount. I got .06" and was lucky that it even bothered to hit my area as it wasn't but a 20% chance, but at the last minute it went up to 80%and we got some. Starting to look like El Nino is going to get down to business out here too. Next rain chance 1/29 here....


1/29 as in January 29 or as in 3.45% chance of rain next? JK, that's a long wait for another 0.06", might need to do a dance or something. Hopefully that 6 slides left a decimal place next week.
Any good webcams in DC?
Quoting 381. Jedkins01:



Snow accumulation keeps keeping closer to me in FL in the long term, even if we don't see any frozen stuff, the extended is looking like more major cold events around here. An increasing snow pack to the north combined with the southern stream remaining active from El Nino and models looking consistently robust with deep upper troughs digging well into FL means we are getting our version of the "deep freeze".

We haven't had any days well below average or anywhere near records. But most highs and lows have been below average so far this month. Only a handful of days have been near average to slightly above.
Yes indeed, this is the pattern I've been talking about for a while. As snow piles up further north of while we keep getting less and less and modified Arctic air, enough phasing will occur to at least get the snow line down into the central Southeast states and further toward the Gulf. Unfortunately, this cold air will produce freezing rain and sleet before it produces snow, It may take several more systems like we'll see Friday to get at least some snow flurries down to you, but I think it will happen within the next three weeks. The same as the upcoming storm will be high impact for the areas from about North Carolina to DC this time, we will see high impacts storms further south. I'm hoping we don't get several freezing rain events before we finally get snow since that's likely to really completely screw things up here. Could be a tough month ahead for all of us.
Why isn't anyone talking about the snowfall liquid equiv?

Skew T plots of the Mid-Atlantic show a much higher than 10:1 ratio.
Periods of 25:1 to 20:1 NW of DC during the height of the storm.
On twitter, I see many DC residents mad about how tonight's storm got blown by the forecasters/media/emergency management/local governments. Also the "it's not just 1" of snow it's ice on the roads" thing that Atlanta got ridiculed for.

Gonna be a fun weekend XD
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 426. washingtonian115:

People were so focused on the blizzard they forgot about this.Accidents have been reported.I went out and the melted snow on the car tracks have turned into ice.This is like natures way to stop people from preparing.


The roads were like an ice skating ring. Working from home the rest of the week.
Quoting 372. violet312s:

I really feel for the mets in the Raleigh-Durham area. Yet again we are going to be right on or near the rain line and there is really no way to predict it.

I have to make the call on our charity event at 9pm Thursday evening. I doubt they will have a much better idea even by then.
Unfortunately, probably not. You'll actually have a better idea about three hours before the precipitation begins. This where models fall apart. They are not now, nor have they ever been, good at predicting mesoscale values like a rain/freezing rain/snow line. The best you can do is watch temperatures and the type of precipitation to your south and west and come up with your best guess from that. To some extent, that's what the NWS forecasters will be doing.
Quoting 435. sar2401:

Yes indeed, this is the pattern I've been talking about for a while. As snow piles up further north of while we keep getting less and less and modified Arctic air, enough phasing will occur to at least get the snow line down into the central Southeast states and further toward the Gulf. Unfortunately, this cold air will produce freezing rain and sleet before it produces snow, It may take several more systems like we'll see Friday to get at least some snow flurries down to you, but I think it will happen within the next three weeks. The same as the upcoming storm will be high impact for the areas from about North Carolina to DC this time, we will see high impacts storms further south. I'm hoping we don't get several freezing rain events before we finally get snow since that's likely to really completely screw things up here. Could be a tough month ahead for all of us.
Yep..The next trof is no slouch either..



Quoting 367. Jedkins01:



That's a bit odd given that Tallahassee and Tampa have mentioned it for a couple days now.
Jacksonville is a little too far east to get in on the low CAPE/high shear event now. That may change if the low shifts further south than the models show now, but I don't think the models are going to show very much more shifting between now and Friday morning. What the actual low does is another question.
Just north of Dallas in 15 hours.

Quoting 432. violet312s:

423. snow2fire

Thanks. That is the best synopsis they have given thus far.

In summary "Ummm...it depends where you are. As usual" lol


I put response on new blog
Quoting 413. barbamz:

Another space oddity, *shudder*. I'll better hit my cushions now ... This new finding won't affect the upcoming blizzard though. Good night everyone!
Researchers find evidence of a real ninth planet
PhysOrg, January 20, 2016 by Kimm Fesenmaier
Caltech researchers have found evidence of a giant planet tracing a bizarre, highly elongated orbit in the outer solar system. The object, which the researchers have nicknamed Planet Nine, has a mass about 10 times that of Earth and orbits about 20 times farther from the sun on average than does Neptune (which orbits the sun at an average distance of 2.8 billion miles). In fact, it would take this new planet between 10,000 and 20,000 years to make just one full orbit around the sun. ...
A baby Nemesis. I wonder if to shakes out the Oort cloud periodically?.
Quoting 413. barbamz:

Another space oddity, *shudder*. I'll better hit my cushions now ... This new finding won't affect the upcoming blizzard though. Good night everyone!
Researchers find evidence of a real ninth planet
PhysOrg, January 20, 2016 by Kimm Fesenmaier
Caltech researchers have found evidence of a giant planet tracing a bizarre, highly elongated orbit in the outer solar system. The object, which the researchers have nicknamed Planet Nine, has a mass about 10 times that of Earth and orbits about 20 times farther from the sun on average than does Neptune (which orbits the sun at an average distance of 2.8 billion miles). In fact, it would take this new planet between 10,000 and 20,000 years to make just one full orbit around the sun. ...


An orbital period of 10,000-20,000 years, with knowledge of Kepler's famous T^2=R^3 law of planetary motion, would imply an average distance away from the Sun of ~464AU-736AU. Temperatures for an object that far out could easily be as cold as 10K (rough guess), or -253.15C. It may not effect the upcoming blizzard, but at the very least you won't have to deal with that kind of cold!
447. vis0

Quoting 333. MahFL:

NWS is sending up wx balloons 4 times a day for Jonas, instead of 2 times.
weird, so is washi115!, ...oh wait washi115 is just celebrating 

also i hear that the LOW migt be captured (s t a   l     l        & nbsp;  s) washi115 are you putting a spell on the LOW?


Type of storm?
i think LOWS DURING THE WINTER SEASON that go and pick up moisture from GoMx should be named Blizzocanes (washi115s name many months ago) They are not true Nor'easters but act like 3/4 warm core LOWs as they reach the troughs most southern Lat.  The 1/4 open allows for cold yet moist for winter time air to infuse and turn the tropical air into some form of winter precipitation.

The "storm of the Century" was such a storm.  So to me this is #BlizzocaneJonas
I just woke up and checked the weather on here to see whats new with the storm since I went to bed, and seen this for Saturday

"Windy. Rain and snow in the morning will transition to mainly rain in the afternoon. High 37F. Winds NE at 40 to 60 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. Winds could occasionally gust over 80 mph"

uh!
Quoting 448. JerseyShoreGirl:

I just woke up and checked the weather on here to see whats new with the storm since I went to bed, and seen this for Saturday

"Windy. Rain and snow in the morning will transition to mainly rain in the afternoon. High 37F. Winds NE at 40 to 60 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. Winds could occasionally gust over 80 mph"

uh!
Where did you see that? What outlet. Seaside Heights here. Thanks.
They say worst since Sandy in my Borough, which was destroyed in the Post-Tropical Cyclone. Saturday is full moon, three high cycles, tropical storm force winds, even hurricane force gusts according to one thing I've seen.

451. shawe
I grew up in New Carrollton right outside of DC...I swear there was a > 12"-18" snowfall in the early 60s but I don't see it listed on any of these lists...is my memory faded?