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Mexico's Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2007

While Hurricane Noel's deadly rampage through the Caribbean was making headlines last week, Mexico experienced one of the worst flooding disasters in its history. Rescue crews are still at work plucking thousands of stranded residents off of rooftops in the state of Tabasco. Over 80% of Tabasco was underwater, and flood waters reached up to residents' rooftops in the capital city of Villahermosa. Up to 900,000 people are homeless in the disaster, which Mexicans are calling their Hurricane Katrina. The number of people dead or missing now stands at 26, due to a new mudslide yesterday that overwhelmed a small village near Villahermosa.

The floods were spawned by heavy rains that fell from a cold front that stalled over the Gulf of Mexico between October 28 and November 1. Satellite estimates of the rainfall show that no more than 7 inches of rain fell over the region during the period, which seems like too little rain to cause the massive flooding observed. It is possible these satellite estimates are flawed. The official rain gauge in Villahermosa reported 2, 81, 7, 0, and 2 inches of rain during the days October 28-November 1, respectively. Presumably, the 81 inches of rain reported October 29 is due to floodwaters inundating the rain gauge. Villahermosa averages 13 inches of rain in a typical October. No new rains have fallen since November 1, and the flood waters are gradually receding.


Figure 1. Thick clouds cover Mexico's Tobasco state on October 29, 2007, due a cold front that stalled over the region. The area received up to 7 inches of rain over a 5-day period. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 92L in far eastern Atlantic not a threat
A non-tropical "cut-off" low pressure system near 31N 37W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands, is showing signs of becoming more tropical. This system was designated "92L" by NHC this morning. Phase space diagrams from Bob Hart at Florida State University show that 92L started off as a classic extratropical storm that was asymmetrical with a cold core, but the storm has gotten more symmetrical and the core has warmed. Satellite loops show only limited thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation at present, though. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 24° C under 92L, and are considerably cooler than the 26.5° usually needed to get a tropical cyclone going. Wind shear is 30-40 knots, and is expected to stay above 30 knots for the next two days. These factors should keep the storm from developing. The system is expected to turn northeast and move through the Azores Islands Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Dr. M...
Thanks, Dr. M...
Thank you doctor i less day to worry about the tropics
I think that calling this "Mexico's Katrina" is a little extreme. The homelessness is a problem, but let's not forget that over 1000 people died in New Orleans. At last count the Mexican death count was only 26. I'm not saying that 26 isn't significant, but at the same time it's not 1000.

Let's not blow things out of proportion...
thanx,Dr.M
He did say NE....Didn't he?
Yeah, he did. Thanks Doctor.
ncw, I don't think it was a reference to anything other than the 80% flooding rate...nearly 8000 sq miles under water...
Can someone tell me why a cold front can displace more people than a category 5 hurricane? What does that say about Mexico's infrastructure?
680. LakeShadow 3:25 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
morgen freunds!
I got some freaky weather happening right now...sun-sleeting.
the low that was supposed to pass through got stuck behind a stationary front and this nice clipper is dragging things on a bit. Anyone with ideas of when that stationary front will break up? from the looks of it I'm getting SW/WSW winds all day. doesnt turn W/ NW until tomorrow...

Looking at all the advisories up for western new york,looks like your in for some interesting weather,snow,possible hail,and maybe some thunder,until around wednesday morning
8. FLSWEDE 3:38 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Thank you Dr, we are just a bunch off kiss a** sucker here, No life or real jobs just spend our whole day being Useless...

speaking of no life or job *ignore*
hey folks...did y'all get my inquiry about the snow/hail that's falling from this clipper that's dragging its a**? At one point there was sun-sleet. now its all dark and a mix of rain and hail...pressure is 29.65 and falling. hope thats the low approaching. how long will it remain stationary?
Thundersnow...I've been in a fair bit of that...
Link
heres my radar. I'm right in the path, where the crosshares are.
thanks Storm,offshore interests are being kept busy these past couple of weeks.
I understand that JP. Also, people don't prepare ahead of time during a freak deluge opposed to a closely monitored monster hurricane approaching. I guess there are too many intangibles that invalidate my questions to begin with. Thanks for responding JP.
23. MisterPerfect 9:52 AM CST on November 06, 2007
I understand that JP. Also, people don't prepare ahead of time during a freak deluge opposed to a closely monitored monster hurricane approaching. I guess there are too many intangibles that invalidate my questions to begin with. Thanks for responding JP.



MP, there was nothing invalid about your question at all


man, I am in a bad spot for this.
Yep, sport...and there's no way of forecasting them either...there's normally no indication of any troughs or weaknesses, they just pop up
Wow, Lake...I'll trade you places...I like the wintry stuff...
Some information on Tobasco and the flooding: Apparently the flooding in Tobasco is exacerbated by the terrain, where the highlands and mountains in neighboring Chiapas lead abruptly down to the large delta that makes up Tobasco, containing the outlet for the two largest (most voluminous) rivers in Mexico.

THE TABASCO LOWLANDS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO(abstract)
Map of Tabasco (state), Mexico
Map of Tobasco State (16 zoomable tiles)
Map of Chiapas State(16 zoomable tiles)

Another news article.
Devastating floods prompt outbreak fears in Mexico (CNN)

BBL.
33. Floodman 4:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Yep, sport...and there's no way of forecasting them either...there's normally no indication of any troughs or weaknesses, they just pop up

Flood, resist, just resist! The temptation to reply is there I know, however, the trolls are only trying to get a rise from you like an old fashioned school tease.

My ignore list is getting ever longer. I really thought we had cracked the troll problem with the new blog but it is back, bold as brass.....sigh.



based on these two images, it looks like that stationary boundary might force this low southeast and out to sea around Maryland's coast. could this follow the JS up the east coast and turn into a nor'easter?
Lake, I think you've just confirmed the models calling for a storm late this week...
How could they have predicted the stationary boundary? otherwise the low would have progressed more easterly, right?
34. Floodman 4:06 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Wow, Lake...I'll trade you places...I like the wintry stuff...

its better than earthquakes, hurricanes floods or tornadoes!
Flood, resist, just resist! The temptation to reply is there I know, however, the trolls are only trying to get a rise from you like an old fashioned school tease.

My ignore list is getting ever longer. I really thought we had cracked the troll problem with the new blog but it is back, bold as brass.....sigh.


As much as I hate to say it, my "ignore" list is becoming rather extensive...to be perfectly honest, I hate to use it...I'm always afraid that I might miss a comment by someone that might be insightful and help me learn more...

My biggest problem is with those that are obviously intelligent, have a great deal to say, but can't help but make personal atacks on others in here...I will do better (or at least try to), but the stress level at times is very great...you remember the definition of stress, don;t you?
40. LakeShadow 10:28 AM CST on November 06, 2007
How could they have predicted the stationary boundary? otherwise the low would have progressed more easterly, right?



The models at the end of last week, before Noel had actually transitioned, were calling for a storm off the east coast for the end of this week...I think the staionary is just a timing issue...where's Bone when we need him?
Hey flood, don't mess with the scantily dressed girls in Riviera....theyr'e either undercovers or gonna give you some genital thundersnow!!!!!

I saw thundersnow in the 93' superstorm. The neat part was I was driving From Nashville to S.FL thru Birmingham. I got to see the cold and warm sectors. I rank it up there with Ivan as far as intensity.
Flood, don't feel bad. My ignore list is FULL. Only took one day. I'm wishcasting a life for all those trolls.
Good morning, Amy...how are you this morning?
ncwindsrfr...certainly Katrina was a nightmare, but this area of Mexico is a poor, agrarian country. The hardships the survivors are facing there will be considerable.
On the other hand, I shared a breakfast table with displaced Katrina surviors in a $100/night hotel room, paid for by the government.
45. Ivansrvivr 10:36 AM CST on November 06, 2007
Hey flood, don't mess with the scantily dressed girls in Riviera....theyr'e either undercovers or gonna give you some genital thundersnow!!!!!

I saw thundersnow in the 93' superstorm. The neat part was I was driving From Nashville to S.FL thru Birmingham. I got to see the cold and warm sectors. I rank it up there with Ivan as far as intensity.



Saw a good deal of it in the early 80s, then again in the mid 90s...best one I remember was 1-30-80; it was 45 all day and drizzling in STL...got done with sound checks about 6 in the evening and someone walked into the hall covered in white stuff...turns out it was snow...snowed 18 inches in three and a half hours, and another 12 over night...we were heading home after the gig and they closed the highway behind us every 10 miles or so
The models at the end of last week, before Noel had actually transitioned, were calling for a storm off the east coast for the end of this week...I think the staionary is just a timing issue...where's Bone when we need him?
yeah, you know??!?!?!
48. franck 10:44 AM CST on November 06, 2007
ncwindsrfr...certainly Katrina was a nightmare, but this area of Mexico is a poor, agrarian country. The hardships the survivors are facing there will be considerable.
On the other hand, I shared a breakfast table with displaced Katrina surviors in a $100/night hotel room, paid for by the government.



Exactly! There is nothing for these folks to fall back on...unlike the Katrina displaced, who had a hard time of it, no doubt, but there's this feeling of entitlement amongst them
flood, you're a musician? no wonder, your homage to the great one...
kinda smells like rotten swordfish and sawdust

a pungent odor it is




psst...jp....harken back to lat week....we don't need to disrespect anyone post of yours....ta da da boom.....


and speaking to the subject at hand....i wonder how do you say fema in spanish?
Ivansriver that is a beautiful Bengal
....i wonder how do you say fema in spanish?

I don't know but the word fema in spanish means free cupcakes.
53. LakeShadow 10:51 AM CST on November 06, 2007
flood, you're a musician? no wonder, your homage to the great one...



Not for a long time...I love music, but eating is high on my list of must do's.

I still pick up the occasional guitar, but I also play keys, wind instruments (who'd a thunk it, me, windy?), both brass and wood...it's kind of a birth defect, but I can play anything with strings as long as there's no bow involved...I don't play them well, mind you, but what I lack in ability I make up for in enthusiasm...oh, and I've been known to front for the odd band or two.

Okay, now that you have my resume...
56. MisterPerfect 10:55 AM CST on November 06, 2007
....i wonder how do you say fema in spanish?

I don't know but the word fema in spanish means free cupcakes.



Funny, that's pretty similar to what it means here...LOL
I had a similar experience when i was living in nashville. I was delivering pizza. My honda was being borrowed so i used my Trans Am. It was built up to drag race w/ slicks, posi rear end etc. When I got to work it was storming which was no big deal. Halfway into my first delivery I noticed the rain looked awfully bright on the windshield. It had changed to snow in a hurry. I stayed for an hour or so until the roads got too slick to drive. Then I couldn't get home b/c of the hills. I had to stay the night at my asst managers house. She was an excellent hostess. Stayed the next night too.
60. Ivansrvivr 10:58 AM CST on November 06, 2007
I had a similar experience when i was living in nashville. I was delivering pizza. My honda was being borrowed so i used my Trans Am. It was built up to drag race w/ slicks, posi rear end etc. When I got to work it was storming which was no big deal. Halfway into my first delivery I noticed the rain looked awfully bright on the windshield. It had changed to snow in a hurry. I stayed for an hour or so until the roads got too slick to drive. Then I couldn't get home b/c of the hills. I had to stay the night at my asst managers house. She was an excellent hostess. Stayed the next night too.



Yep, TAs are about as useful in snow as a conditions as a bathing suit...LOL

So, a good hostess...hmmm
"Ivansriver that is a beautiful Bengal"

Mo is an F2(2nd gen off leopard). It wouldn't be a Bengal till 5gens. Mo usually does my blogging for me but She is being lazy today.
Amy, if I'm, lucky no one will take notice
My TA had 383 stroker, locked posi rear and a transbrake. Definetly not a snow car.
64. Ivansrvivr 11:03 AM CST on November 06, 2007
My TA had 383 stroker, locked posi rear and a transbrake. Definetly not a snow car.



LOL, but it did a MIGHTY doughnut, huh?
I avoided doing doughnuts in that car. It did a wicked wheelstand though. it only got 9mpg on 93oct + boost. I couldn't imagine paying to put gas in it now.
66. Ivansrvivr 11:09 AM CST on November 06, 2007
I avoided doing doughnuts in that car. It did a wicked wheelstand though. it only got 9mpg on 93oct + boost. I couldn't imagine paying to put gas in it now.



My first hand built: 65 Ford fairlane, bored out 351...9-10 mpg...yep, been there, done that...the problem with the Ford was that everytime I ran it, I had to fix something else...spent a lot of intimate time with the windsor...
I'm guessing Ivansrvivr prefers that the gumint hires Blackwater to wash him up. Personally I would outsource the job to Singapore, but that's just me.
katadman, wazzup?
"Ivan...why are you jumping on me? All I said was "cupcakes or Ding Dongs"....please leave me out of your diatribe...."

I'm sorry Amy, you have to understand my since of humor. That's the last viewpoint I would ever take. I think the only folks who should get "entitlements" are 1st the heroes that have earned it serving our country and 2nd the extremely needy. I don't support entitlements for every yahoo under the sun. There are too many private groups that do a good job at those things. I deplore this country's "Robin hood" mentality.
Not meaning to hange the subject (well, okay, I do mean to change the subject)...92L is now moving SE...the vorticity seems to run from the surface through 300mb, little or no convection, but the upper levels are being sheared to the SW...about to turn again, to the NE, and off to Portugal, I suspect (okay, maybe Morrocco; I thought Portugal sounded better though)
Well since were getting all political here I might as well post a link to the only Republican running for president that wants to leave Iraq Link
Sunday night after the Pats pulled a win from the jaws of defeat vs. Indy.

don't remind me....
Where are those WMD's?

Wooly Mountain Ducks? LOL

And rack up another win for Haliburton...
At the risk of getting yelled at by my friends from NE, I'm feeling your pain, WPB
81. IKE
WPBHurricane05 11:42 AM CST on November 06, 2007
Sunday night after the Pats pulled a win from the jaws of defeat vs. Indy.

don't remind me....


Indy should have won that game.


Oh well, Indy will most likely play them in the play offs.
81. IKE 11:46 AM CST on November 06, 2007
WPBHurricane05 11:42 AM CST on November 06, 2007
Sunday night after the Pats pulled a win from the jaws of defeat vs. Indy.

don't remind me....

Indy should have won that game.



They couldn't get anything started in the last 5-6 minutes, and it killed them...
I walked away for a bit and theres a war debate??!?!? Have we not learned anything about the over sensitivity of weather bloggers??!?!?
87. IKE
Ivansrvivr.....

Link

Now back to the weather....
last time I checked the barometer reading was 29.64 and falling. now its 29.63 and rising?!
and there's a cell track above me thats recorded at 0,0000 ft with 0 vil and 0% chance of hail...yet its hailing outside...
peculiar...
Afternoon folks. I see 92L has been designated for the Azores Low. At least we have a floater on it now :)

LakeShadow hows the Lake Effect? I hear you guys will be in it all day.
91. V26R
Okay wait Thought this was a WEATHER Blog
Checked into the wrong area
Sorry
93. V26R
Bone think they changed blogs on us
use the ignore feature and its right back to weather LOL
95. V26R
Hey Lake, where are you located?
96. V26R
Lake if you are where I think you are
Wait for the Thunder

Link
98. IKE
Ivansrvivr 12:00 PM CST on November 06, 2007
Ike, don't try to show me some C-BS propoganda as journalism. Just for the record, I have big problems with the current admistration too, but I support out troops, and the Colts.


Think what you want to.


The cold front is moving through the Florida panhandle as I type and I'm biting my tongue ignoring NRA and her "off topic" reference. Like 5% of what she talks about on here is weather related.
99. V26R
Bone gotta report for Duty
Talk to you later
Stay Safe Everyone
Later
good Flood and yourself
I'm doing well...sorry you didn't get to run Noel like you wanted; I was looking forward to reading your exploits!
yea me too. Still early in the season for me though so I should have plenty of oppertunities. Would have been good because its the first tropical / extratropical system to come this close in a while
Lake, still hailing/sleeting??
besides i like to dance in the dirty hippie pits at shows... really the kyndest folk!
:)


They really are the best folks to hang with...not too terribly judgemental, always willing to listen to opposing points of view and always willing to be helpful...
Lake as per your email the upper air soundings at 12Z show wids out of the west in the lower levels then a shift to southwest in the upper levels. Looking at the Lows track winds should stay that way till tomorrow then the will shift to the out of the N the NW again. Depending where you are looks like Central erie and Western Genesee counties today then shift south again and take over southern erie and wyoming counties.
If your off Lake Ontario looks like North of Jefferson county is the mess today then tonight it will be Tug Hill.
hail/rain mix right now. good brisk windgusts from the SW around 20mph.
Dirty hippie pits...you really are too cool for words...LOL
you know it!
respect guy....respect...i thought that was the word of the day less than a week ago...LOL
Depending where you are looks like Central erie and Western Genesee counties today then shift south again and take over southern erie and wyoming counties.
yeah...central Erie co. is where I am.
well when those dirty hippie pits get too smelly Lake, you can always put on some um "speed stick
LOL
potchoully, my friend... keeps the stink at bay! ..whether it be body odor, or something else thats nice and stinky :)
No honor in getting into a battle of wits with the unarmed

ha! So true! I declare the blog quote of the day!
*bows*

I'm honored, ma'am!
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Marine Interpretation Message
SW N ATLC...

LIGHT WINDS
PREVAIL FRI AS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE WELL OFF
THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLC. MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THIS DEVELOPMENT
TAKES PLACE HOWEVER A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/UKMET AND CMC MODELS
SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION IS FURTHER OFFSHORE NEAR 33N66W BY LATE
SAT WHICH WILL KEEP STRONGER N TO NW WINDS...20-25 KT AT THIS
TIME CONFINED TO THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA INTO SUN. SHOULD THE
LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AND BE STRONGER ALONG THE
LINES OF THE ECMWF...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT NEAR GALE FORCE NW
WINDS OVER THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA. THE PICTURE HOPEFULLY
BECOMES CLEARER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LATER MODEL RUNS.

More waves to ride....
well when those dirty hippie pits get too smelly Lake, you can always put on some um "speed stick



Hmmm...Thai-stick might work just as well LOL
freezing rain now...35F winds picking up gusts around 30mph out of SSW.
Link
Ok Lake then look for it to end tonight as the winds shift more south.
Ah - so dirty hippo pits are what happens in off season? lol
Lake - how much snow do you get where you live?
Who cares if the writers go on strike....y'all are much more entertaining...we're only missing Baha & Tigger!

Flood, you're quick! Thanks for the good belly laughs. I'm not sure which was better, the staleness or the witless :) :)
133. SamTeam 1:04 PM CST on November 06, 2007
Who cares if the writers go on strike....y'all are much more entertaining...we're only missing Baha & Tigger!

Flood, you're quick! Thanks for the good belly laughs. I'm not sure which was better, the staleness or the witless :) :)



Thanks, Sam...anytime...I've always found that the best way to deflect willful stupidity is to laugh at it...and friends, I love to laugh
cool for me, bd. bad for the northeastern coast, though!
zoomiami,
We get on average 90 inches of snow a season.
alot of that is within a few realy big snowfalls with totals exceeding 24" in a three-hour to three day period. We get about 30-40 snows a year...I have a way to predict the number of snows, I'll write up an explaination on a blog in the future...stay posted.
Dirty hippo pit! LOL!
Well I needed a good laugh today Flood & you delivered.

We get on average 90 inches of snow a season.


*green with envy*

I always did like the NE
Lake you better let me in on that blog posting it will add another dynamic to my forcast matrix.

Everyone look for a new blog from me in the coming days. I will have two possibly. One for this fridays possible Nor'Easter then one for a detailed winter forcast
140. 786
Hello,

It has gotten significantly cooler in Cayman, and very windy. I am suprised that there have been no thunderstorms considering how warm the air was right before the front started sweeping through.

IKE I have to say (and this is all I will) that I agree with your post on the WMD's the troops are supported but are unfortunatley risking their lives for an agenda none of the American people really need, I don't see the mission bringing better health care and education to the nation, not such thing anymore of "by the people for the people"...it is def. an illusionary democracy, the g'ment is now there "to preserve democracy not to practice it".

OK OK that is it. Why is there no link in Wunderground for 92L and does anyone think the system at about 42W? could develop into anything?

Last question, Nor'easters can at most get to cat. 1 hurricane status or can they be more destructive?
137. SamTeam 1:08 PM CST on November 06, 2007
Well I needed a good laugh today Flood & you delivered.



You're welcome! LOL
Hmm lets see if this works
786 the Nor'Easters have a 3 fold destructive potential.

One: They can grow to hurricane force with sustaiined winds in the 70mph range with higher gusts and tidal surge along the coasts

Two: Hevay rains, not tropical in nature but long period sustained rains over a large area brought in by the onshore flow

Three: Heavy snowfalls in interior sections. Snowfall totals can exceed 2 feet in a large narrow band sometimes.

Ice can also be a factor along the rain snow line.

Some of the most distructive storms in New England have been and contiue to be Nor'Easters. Also spring time storms can cause widespread flood events as was seen in the April 2007 storm which dumped over a foot of rain from NJ to CT and caused 3 to 4 days of floods
sure thing, BD!!

For the most part Nor'easters have the rainy side and the snowy side. Oftentimes there are blizzard conditions...white outs and large snowdrifts. makes it impossible to travel and most nor'easter storm deaths are traffic related or are from people freezing to death after power fails. the rain and wind damage are significant but that other componant makes it very dangerous in a very different way.
145. 786
Ahh I see, thx a lot Bonedog, I lived in Ottawa for a few years so I prob. experienced some of the snow and ice, I remember that one day it was -52 celcius with the wind chill. brrrrrrr the thought makes me cringe.
also Nor'Easters can be slow movers where as a hurricane can last several hours sometimes, depending on steering currents, Nor'Easters can lash the same areas for several days with conditions staying the same and not abaiting
Orca, the avatar is cool!

786, as for the system at 42W, it's currently moving off to the SE...I'm guessing at some point in the next 12 hours or so it will start to move in a more NE direction and end up moving away pretty quickly
786 in Ottowa you probably experienced Alberta Clippers more so then a true Nor'Easter. Both will cause the same conditions though. The only diffrence is the Nor'Easter will have its COC over the Atlantic waters which adds to its fuel where as Clippers stay overland and tap atmospheric moisture more so then Atlantic moisture.
and now the patented thick and heavy slushlike lake effect snow is falling. Chunky snow. wet... its light right now. lots of it brings branches and power lines down...its been a while old friend...
I'll be darned.. worked first time
awww lake your getting the slush fall now :( That stuff makes a mess of everything but at least it means it should be coming to an end due to the warm air filtering in.
152. 786
Lake, Flood thx as well. Yeah the NHC TWD mentioned that it is currently moving S.

I have experienced Nor'Easters (now that you have all been kind enough to explain its symptoms) in Canada, some pretty bad blizzards there. This is my first Nor'Easter season in the Caribbean so thankfully no snow. But very windy and constantly, its been 4 days of pure wind and gusts.
153. 786
Oh I see, yeah that makes sense as most of the systems that affect Southern Ontario are from the N


still in the same spot, dog.
ike dont know if you are still here? but from a idiot who played 4 years of major college football and 5 years in the nfl and 3 years as a assistant oline coach in the nfl i will tell you this the patriots had 2 turnovers and 14 penalties and still won without that that they woud have won by more. and for what its worth a lot of the knowledgable folks i know that work in the league in a player or coach capacity will tell you ne is the best team in the league and brady is by far the best qb one of the top 3 to ever play the game. on to the lsu matter lsu had 4 turnovers and 16 penalties plus alabama had less than 25 rushing yards and wilson completed less than 40percent of his passes, which tells me inspite of all lsu mistakes they were the far superior team.but what do i know lol ps know wonder bob left.
exactly 786. But conditions can be the same.

I have seen both tropical systems and Nor'easters up close and personal. Sometimes I see worse destruction over a much larger area with the winter systems then the tropical ones.

NOTE: I am NOT saying tropical systems arent bad. I have seen unimaginable destruction from them.
but what do i know lol ps know wonder bob left.

exactly! thank you!!
Sorry work called - I like snow, but I don't know about that much snow!!

I second the call for Flood to write - I love to read everyday - just to see what's new.

92L looks impressive on the sat imergy.

Far right in this shot

first ignore in a few days thanks I needed that :)
I'm going to need a new ! page soon.....
zoo I have over 70 on the list
LOL! I love evolution! I'm enjoying the rediculousness so I havent pressed ignore just yet... too entertaining.
Lake I do it just for peace and quiet. My blood pressure gets too high when folks knock the good ones here and the erant little anyoing persons just take up page space that I need to scroll through :)
hey bone, does it look like the old cold front is attaching itself to this?
yes lake the cold front attached to the occluded front of the system.Check post 154 that you posted :) This is what is going to cause the energy transfer later in the week on the cold front to cyclogenis the possible Nor'Easter.
Observed at: Buffalo, New York
Elevation: 722 ft / 220 m

34 °F / 1 °C
Thunderstorm Small Hail Mist
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 32 °F / 0 °C
Wind: 25 mph / 41 km/h / 11.3 m/s from the SSW
Wind Gust: 37 mph / 59 km/h / 16.5 m/s
Pressure: 29.63 in / 1003 hPa (Falling)
Windchill: 21 °F / -6 °C
Visibility: 1.0 miles / 1.6 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 600 ft / 182 m
Overcast 1000 ft / 304 m
(Above Ground Level)
Raw METAR Aviation
Flight Rule: IFR (KBUF)
Wind Speed: 25 mph / 41 km/h / 11.3 m/s
Wind Dir: 200° (SSW)
Ceiling: 600 ft / 182 m


bd, that looks like its gona get huge. I thought the low alone would cause the nor'easter. I didnt realize that cold front would get wrapped around in it. it'll hit us again!
reach-around storms! bah!
yea should be a major player in the next few days up by Greenland. Also we have to watch in the next week or so the NAO is dipping negative to almost 1.5 and the trend after that is a little lower.
147. Floodman 7:19 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Orca, the avatar is cool!


Thanks flood, a little easier on the eyes then that bright CDN flag.
Lake take a look at this and see how far back the system really reaches

Link
173. 786
LOL I know I am feeding but what is worse: those who have a hobby and choose to pursue it and learn all they can on this blog or those that have no hobby but the time to find a weather site to take their frustrations out on...I think FL needs to find someone who cares:))

Thanx a lot for all the info. I have learnt sooo much.
164. LakeShadow 7:43 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
LOL! I love evolution! I'm enjoying the rediculousness so I havent pressed ignore just yet... too entertaining.


I agree with lake.. not to mention I am sure Jeff Foxworthy gets half his material here for his shows by reading some of the stuff you read here... "You might be a redneck if..... "
no problem 786 glad to help
My pleasure, 786...anytime!
H.S!!!!!!
bone thats a bigggone!!!
so far int he last few hours we've had rain, snow, slushsnow, sleet and hail. Its making a slushy, icy mess on the roads. poor folks I'm at home so no worries here just got to get out to vote!
btw..on this slushy wintery day we are supposed to elect a new county executive here in Erie co.... so much for getting the vote out!
Lake maybe its a sign from above about who to elect LOL
The wrath of nature tends to concentrate on the red states...so you may have a point, there, BD.
LOL!
(I know, I'm a Yankee...)
LOL I hear ya and we get craped on in Winter so basically we are all screwed at one point or another.
now theres another low setting up to the north of this
yea Lake a bunch of Lows to form along this front and up in Canada. Like I said earlier watch on in the coming week the NAO is droping to negative 1.5
yeah, thats right. Let the bowling alley of storms begin...
hey storm!
Hey StormW Good AFternoon to you sir
Lake, I will trade you your storms for Victoria's Pineapple express?
mmm.. I like pineapples.
190. IKE
786 1:10 PM CST on November 06, 2007
Hello,

It has gotten significantly cooler in Cayman, and very windy. I am suprised that there have been no thunderstorms considering how warm the air was right before the front started sweeping through.

IKE I have to say (and this is all I will) that I agree with your post on the WMD's the troops are supported but are unfortunatley risking their lives for an agenda none of the American people really need, I don't see the mission bringing better health care and education to the nation, not such thing anymore of "by the people for the people"...it is def. an illusionary democracy, the g'ment is now there "to preserve democracy not to practice it".


Thanks....I support the troops too. Their doing a job that I could never do.

My wifes son...who is 18...is going to sign up tomorrow for the Air Force. I wish him and all of our troops the best.
92L is embedded within a large upper level circulation, therefore if it forms it will most likely be subtropical. Yesterday i stated a SW movement...I would like to correct myself...I meant SE movement under the influence of a high pressure system near Atlantic Europe.

oooo BoneLake lol

there is a Big Bonelick State Park in Kentucky.
no lie.
195. IKE
SAINTHURRIFAN 1:28 PM CST on November 06, 2007
ike dont know if you are still here? but from a idiot who played 4 years of major college football and 5 years in the nfl and 3 years as a assistant oline coach in the nfl i will tell you this the patriots had 2 turnovers and 14 penalties and still won without that that they woud have won by more. and for what its worth a lot of the knowledgable folks i know that work in the league in a player or coach capacity will tell you ne is the best team in the league and brady is by far the best qb one of the top 3 to ever play the game. on to the lsu matter lsu had 4 turnovers and 16 penalties plus alabama had less than 25 rushing yards and wilson completed less than 40percent of his passes, which tells me inspite of all lsu mistakes they were the far superior team.but what do i know lol ps know wonder bob left.


I agree with you on LSU...I think a rematch between Indy and NE is going to happen in the playoffs.

The cold front has made it through the Florida panhandle and has brought in cooler...drier and windier conditions.

70 degrees outside.
jp I think if you wrote the book by that title it would be something tottally diffrent then King
197. IKE
Dew point here in Defuniak Springs,Fl is at 57....

In Mobile,AL.....

"Observed at: Mobile Downtown, Alabama
Elevation: 23 ft
[Clear]
71 °F
Clear
Humidity: 38%
Dew Point: 44 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 30.14 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)".........


Drier air is sweeping eastward.
sounds violating for me!
sorry lake :(

JP thats awsome. I always wanted to sit down and write something. Dont have the time or patience to do it. Hope the series works out for you. Could be the next harry potter LOL
StormW, how are you?
local mets said the snow would stay towards the southtowns and away from the lake shore...oiy! Everyone in the metro b-lo area is swearing at the mets...
wow JP THAT actually would be an awsome series. Run with it :)

just give me a little squib in the back as an insperational tool LOL
202. jphurricane2006 2:32 PM CST on November 06, 2007
lol floodman, nah its going to be a murder mystery, I already know where I am going with this one



Outstanding...I don't think I could write a murder mystery, though...the best I've done is manuals for software I've written and the occasional poetry
I bet Lake. The radar looks like you all are getting a direct hit with no forseeable change. That Low is being persistant in NOT moving
208. Bonedog 2:36 PM CST on November 06, 2007
I bet Lake. The radar looks like you all are getting a direct hit with no forseeable change. That Low is being persistant in NOT moving


Lucky, Lake!
bbl unexpected company.
Not bad at all, StormW...actually getting some work done,. despite my frequent posts here...how goes the DIY work?
LOL I just found this I think its hilarious especially for some folks here


TOP 10 CHRISTMAS GIFTS FOR METEOROLOGISTS

10. Doppler-on-Wheels (w/ trailer hitch).

9. Autographed pictures of Jim Cantore, Dave Schwartz and Kristina Abernathy.

8. One of them "robot dogs".

7. Inflatable Skew-T / log P.

6. Lots and lots of fudge!!

5. Videotape of Willard Scott being pummeled by grapefruit-sized hail.

4. Super Forecaster-O-Matic, by Ronco.

3. Nerf baseball bat used on people who say, "why don't you just look out the window?"

2. Front row tickets for John Hope's one-man musical tribute to Dr. Ted Fujita.

1. A life.

LOL 10 and 7 for me :)
214. Bonedog 2:40 PM CST on November 06, 2007
LOL I just found this I think its hilarious especially for some folks here


TOP 10 CHRISTMAS GIFTS FOR METEOROLOGISTS

10. Doppler-on-Wheels (w/ trailer hitch).

9. Autographed pictures of Jim Cantore, Dave Schwartz and Kristina Abernathy.

8. One of them "robot dogs".

7. Inflatable Skew-T / log P.

6. Lots and lots of fudge!!

5. Videotape of Willard Scott being pummeled by grapefruit-sized hail.
4. Super Forecaster-O-Matic, by Ronco.

3. Nerf baseball bat used on people who say, "why don't you just look out the window?"

2. Front row tickets for John Hope's one-man musical tribute to Dr. Ted Fujita.

1. A life.





Please note the bolded lines...anything pummeling Willard Scott is suitable, but the grapefruit sized hail is a VERY nice touch, and what can I say about a John Hope oneman musical tribute to Fujita? what else need be said?
218. Bonedog 4:43 PM AST on November 06, 2007

LOL...very funny stuff
225. IKE
Sexual weather terms....I guess it is a slow day in the tropics! LOL.
I'm with StormW...I was trying to think of some smarta@@ comment, but anything I came up with made me sound like a perv...
hey its weather related and humorous. got to love a slow day on the blog :)

here is the link with many many many funny things all weather related

Link
*Rubbing temples, then eyes*

No, I just can't do anything with post #218...
whats funny is these lists and jokes are from a proffesional on air met
230. jphurricane2006 2:50 PM CST on November 06, 2007
really floodman?

you would be rubbing your temples? you sure you picked the right part? LOL

maybe "temples" is a euphamism for something LOL

anyway, be back in a bit



Very nice...there you have it; my friend, jphurricane...


Meteorologist Jeff Haby presents:


A meteorologist's weekly lunch and dinner specials


Monday lunch: Stormdog with thunderfries
Monday dinner: Rice with humid veggies and heat wave steak all covered in warm advection sauce

Tuesday lunch: Typhoon pizza (center removed)
Tuesday dinner: Sea breeze seafood with hush sundogs

Wednesday lunch: Tornado spaghetti with hot hail balls
Wednesday dinner: Warm core veal topped with thunderstruck cheese and a high CAPE sun baked potato

Thursday lunch: Meteorological goulash
Thursday dinner: Ribeye supercell with F5 sauce and stormy beans, blizzard ice cream

Friday lunch: Hurricane burger (center removed) with squall rings
Friday dinner: Cloud seeded chicken with tornado tots

Saturday lunch: Flash flood soup
Saturday dinner: High Theta-E turkey, precipitation peas and vorticity potatoes

Sunday lunch: Sleet salad with cloud to ground crackers
Sunday dinner: Heat wave enchiladas with lightning struck twice beans and sweltering rice

Drink choices:

Condensation Coke
Mountain Dew
Parcel Pepsi
Downdraft Water
Dr. Convection
Dr. Instability
Hurricane Punch
Twister Tea

234. IKE
Bonedog 2:52 PM CST on November 06, 2007
whats funny is these lists and jokes are from a proffesional on air met


Must to have been a s-l-o-w weather period for him.

Speaking of weather...check out the dry air in Birmingham...

"Observed at: Birmingham, Alabama
Elevation: 643 ft
[Clear]
58 °F
Clear
Humidity: 21%
Dew Point: 18 °F
Wind: 17 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 30.19 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)".....

They have a freeze watch for tonight.

Where can I find the model Plots for 92L? WU does not have it up. thanks.
geek

Link
92L

ok thanks Bone Dog.
how much of a chance does it have of Olga.
afternoon,all
OMG read this story. Simply amazing that these folks lived to tell about it

note: this is NOT how to storm chase

Link
i give it a 20% chance of becoming Olga within 24 hrs
I think these three guys may be those chaser guys with the TIV. Isnt the background of them a professor and two students?
on air flub....

This had most of the state of Michigan laughing for 2 days and a very embarrassed female news anchor who will, in the future, likely think before she speaks. What happens when you predict snow but don't get any... a true story... We had a female news anchor, who the day after it was supposed to have snowed and didn't, turned to the weatherman and asked: "So Bob, where's that 8 inches you promised me last night?" Not only did HE have to leave the set, but half the crew did also! They were laughing so hard!
flub.,...

Worked with a guy that was giving a very detailed (probably too detailed for television) description of some severe weather moving through the area. He was getting pretty deep discussing "rear flank development" when the building took a lightning hit. The charge ran through the mic cable which was running up his leg (no wireless mics) and gave him a shock. He gave a short little jump and without missing a beat said, "Whoa, I think I just had a little rear flank development!" I never laughed so hard in my life!!!!
VALENTINES NWS FORECAST DISCUSSION



CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED 1155 PM
CST THU FEB 12 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE STORM
WATCH FOR ALL OF THE UNITED STATES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CLOUDS, HIGH WINDS AND DOWN
BURSTS EXISTS IF PERSONS ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

SHOULD ANY MALE FORGET THAT TODAY IS VALENTINES DAY A
DEEP LOW COULD FORM OVER THE AFFECTED PERSONS HEAD. HIGH
WINDS COULD COME FROM THE AFFECTED PERSONS SPOUSE OR
SPOUSE TO BE AND MAY CAUSE SEVERE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO
ANYONE WITHIN 1 MILE.

SHOULD YOU OBSERVE A ONCOMING STORM, SEEK SHELTER UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. LOCAL BARS WILL BE EXTENDING HAPPY
HOURS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS LIFE THREATENING EVENT.

PERSONS EXPERIENCING ANY RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS OR HEAVY
BLEEDING SHOULD DIAL 911.

PLEASE REFER TO PUBLIC AND COMMERCIAL RADIO AND
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.



Flash Flood Problem

Weather456, is that New Orleans?
250. MisterPerfect 5:28 PM AST on November 06, 2007 Hide this comment.
Weather456, is that New Orleans?


no....dont where it is
Its in Europe...look atthose license plates
253. IKE
There driving on the opposite side of the road in that picture 456...you can see the vehicles at the top of the hill. I don't think it's in the USA.
Hey STORM W do you see anything in the tropics this week are we alomst done with the season you think ?
92L still moving in what direction?
nice to see they got the fsu model site up to date
256. NEwxguy 3:48 PM CST on November 06, 2007
nice to see they got the fsu model site up to date



Yep...couple of hours ago...the MM5 hasn't been run
257. Floodman 9:52 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
256. NEwxguy 3:48 PM CST on November 06, 2007
nice to see they got the fsu model site up to date



Yep...couple of hours ago...the MM5 hasn't been run

it must have been your email
259. NEwxguy 3:56 PM CST on November 06, 2007
257. Floodman 9:52 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
256. NEwxguy 3:48 PM CST on November 06, 2007
nice to see they got the fsu model site up to date



Yep...couple of hours ago...the MM5 hasn't been run

it must have been your email



Niiice...another of my friends chimes in...LMAO
255. HurricaneGeek 4:44 PM EST on November 06, 2007
92L still moving in what direction?


It is moving either SW or SSW.
92L will move SE, then NE, then N, then SE again.
262. Bobbyweather 4:14 PM CST on November 06, 2007
92L will move SE, then NE, then N, then SE again.



That's strange...a couple of the models have it merging with the low NW of it in 72 hours or so...
Thanks again STORMW
Ooops, my bad...thats 108 hours
456 - the shark says it all!
Florida to face tight water restrictions after another lean year:



PORT MAYACA, Fla. - Looking out over the vast Everglades, it's clear this is not the Florida of yesteryear.

Lake Okeechobee, a backup drinking water source for five million people and the heart of the Everglades, sits at a record low. Crop losses are expected to near $1 billion. And the worst is yet to come. Green will soon turn brown, wide pools of water diminished to mere puddles.

Peering down on the lake from a helicopter on Tuesday, Carol Wehle, executive director of the South Florida Water Management District, marveled at its wide patches of dry Okeechobee shoreline that are typically covered in water.
With below average rainfall for a second straight year, and drought predicted to continue, South Florida water managers are warning residents to brace for severe shortages as the seven-month dry season begins.

``You worry about being able to supply water. You worry about how long it's going to take for the lake to recover,'' Wehle said. ``If everyone embraces the concept of water conservation, we will weather this drought.''

Article
my daughter is so happy about snow showers this weekend - moved from miami to maine this summer.
Ouch, vortfix...it's bad; I had no idea how bad until I did a little research. We expect that sort of thing here in Texas; hell, it's a wet year here with 30 inches of rain for the year...but Lake O? It boggles the mind
zoo I wish I was there too...it's one of the things I miss most about the mid west...4 years in Louisiana with no winter to speak of...
The southern tier of states is getting extremely heavy, uncomfortable to live in. It's okay for retirees who sit inside in the air conditioning all day, but the outside environment is oppressive 9-10 months of the year. Supposedly, surface humidity rises proportionately more than temperature. Anyway, it's bad.
271. franck 5:02 PM CST on November 06, 2007
The southern tier of states is getting extremely heavy, uncomfortable to live in. It's okay for retirees who sit inside in the air conditioning all day, but the outside environment is oppressive 9-10 months of the year. Supposedly, surface humidity rises proportionately more than temperature. Anyway, it's bad.



Tell me about it; we just moved to DFW in June, with lower humidities despite the higher temps...it's far superior to SE Louisiana...
BOING, BOUNCE! What up all?
Hey, Tig...boring in here...how's your day going?
Long day...but it is almost over...btw flood, waited at the airport for ya with a bowl of chili and the cornbread but you never showed up!
Sorry...a rain check? I wonder if they'll let me board with a smoked brisket...hmmm
lol, not sure, know ya cant if you are traveling to or from Europe...NO PERISHIBLES! Found that out real quick...can't even mail em!
They take a dim view of that sort of thing, though my mom mails me tinned meats and such pretty regularly fomr Roth, Gremany...
Hello, Tigger and Flood. What news ? Alls quiet here, on the Eastern front. Hoping for some more rain........
I think the diff is that it is hermetically sealed...same time tho...does she actually claim what is in the package?
hey pottery...just yacking for a few till the hubby gets home...then back on later when he and the little one goes to bed.
As far as weather goes, just some snow in the NE CONUS and 92L, which is turning to the NE
280. tiggeriffic 5:32 PM CST on November 06, 2007
I think the diff is that it is hermetically sealed...same time tho...does she actually claim what is in the package?



Nope, just the weight...2 or 3 kilos, normally
The 18z GFS still shows snow for me!!!!
Guess these blogs keep going but for what use -
I am convinced this season is over - I assume
you experts need something to blog about to
keep your sanity - good luck until next year
and I wish each of you a Happy Turkey Day and
Christmas - until next year , thank the Lord .
Yeah, sent son a package yesterday...hope he gets it by the weekend, supposed to snow in RI Friday and Saturday
Well, folks, as the guy in the cartoon says:

Drizzle, drazzle druzzle Drome
Time for this one to go home

BBL
284. eaglesrock 5:35 PM CST on November 06, 2007
The 18z GFS still shows snow for me!!!!



Where you at, eaglesrock?
later flood, see ya later
jaxons, we talk about all kinds of weather, including the WPac tropical season...
You bet, Tig...
My 6 yr. old grandson just came through to sey goodnight ( it's 7;30, he's up late ) Took a look at the computer screen, and said " Pappy, why are you looking at clowns and guys with traffic-light eyes??"

Made me wonder, myself. LOL
292. pottery2 5:40 PM CST on November 06, 2007
My 6 yr. old grandson just came through to sey goodnight ( it's 7;30, he's up late ) Took a look at the computer screen, and said " Pappy, why are you looking at clowns and guys with traffic-light eyes??"

Made me wonder, myself. LOL



LOL...out of the mouths of babes...out for real this time
no clown, just tigger! LOL, my 3 yr old always wants to know what the puter is saying to me....
where you at pottery????

Weather456, is that New Orleans?

no....dont where it is

Definately in the UK. Only two countries in Europe drive on the left: the UK and Ireland. These are UK plates (yellow on the trunk).

Can't tell exactly where it is but by the vegetation it is on the West coast somewhere. I would suggest Wales (see my Avatar for flag) or SW England, maybe Devon or Cornwall.

Just caught up now I am off to bed: nearly midnight on this side of the pond!

Will check in on the progress (if any) on 92L in the morning.

Night all :-()
nite Muffel, good sleep to ya
nite Muffel, good sleep to ya

Night night, don't let the bed bugs bite...
lol, will have to tell ya some time bout my oldest spending part of his summer in the UK last year!
ok, im out for a bit, bbl
From http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/doc404?OpenForm
Map of flooded areas in Tabasco
Help

Does anyone have a link to satellite imagery of Siberia (the hearth of Russia) that updates every 3 hrs or less. I seem to have satellite imagery/loops of every place on earth except Siberia.

Thanks
FLOOD; Mail Call!!!!! Do folks on this blog follow winter storms too? I do so hopefully we'll have something to talk about this winter.
quiet in here
I think 92L should be a STD or STS because of the SSD site showing ST2.5 five times in a row.
Evenin folks. Went back reading trying to 'catch up'....some FUNNY stuff back there!! Hope you're all well
303. Weather456
I think that's one of those places where, when you get an image, it's good all week. It looks like this:
Thanks JFV..hope you're having a nice evening
308. BajaALemt
....some FUNNY stuff back there!!
At least no one said anything callous like:
"I hope there are no natural disasters in Worcestershire" or other condiment jokes.
LOL !!! Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad !! haha
I get it, "T" numbers.
I pity the fool that makes fun of the weather!
From 'Mr T's Storm Chase School

LOL !
Like NO in Tabasco, Tabasco in NO?
*scratches head*
Do we need real emoticons here?
324. MZT
Ivansrvr: Dr Masters has been running the blog all year long. He discusses other weather events in the winter, plus southern hemisphere cyclones.
Slow blog...let's talk about the possibility of snow for me on Friday!!!! LOL
LOL eagles
Ah piddy de fool dat don't do weather. Ah piddy 'im.
waitin on the rtn flow off gom to set up enjoy the quiet wont last long
anyone in here tonight?
Evening Floood.. very very slow tonight.. surfing around learning about Cancun
few here
Evenin' Folks. Whuts happnin?
Orca, how are you? That's right, you're going to Cancun, aren' t you? Well, I'm not very conversant with that area, but I know you'll want to see the ruins; if memory serves, Tikal is the one...when are you going?
keeper, flaboy, wazzup? Just dropping in for asec, checking on the snow/ice thing up north...Erie got it good?
I love it when ONT gets buried in snow... is it happening now?

And yes... 5 Jan - 19 Jan.. Blue Bay club Cancun :)
I think it's western NY state...today.

Blue Bay? By all accounts you're going to have a spectacular time! Well, I'm out...early morning tomorrow
Have a good one Flood :)
Here's the Shuttle (STS-120) landing ground track for Florida tomorrow.
STS-120(Discovery)
Landing Blog
Tikal is in Guatemala, Flood. He'll probably head to Chichen Itza if he's on the typical tourist travel. If you're staying a while, bring some water and money to donate to the folks in Tabasco. We're completely cut off from the rest of Mexico right now and pretty worried about our friends in Villahermosa. It has been a horrific season for Mexico this year.
Wow its a slow blog. Morning everyone. Hows things?
Mornin Bone. I see you're up early too :)
morning all, reporting a cool 42 from Biloxi, Ms this morning!
US HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST NOVEMBER 06 2007

SYNOPSIS: A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS ASSESSMENT PERIOD, CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY FEW HAZARDS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE STORM WHICH WAS PREDICTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE MIDDLE AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTS THIS WEEKEND WILL STILL COME ABOUT, THOUGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA THAN WAS INDICATED PREVIOUSLY BY MODEL RUNS. ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE ONLY A GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS STORM, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR MARINE INTERESTS. FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS OCEAN STORM (PRIMARILY IN MAINE) AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER STORM, THIS TIME OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
Mornin GCD....a cool 44 here over in the panhandle.
Hey Baja......and they say it will be colder tonight!

I was in Huntsville, Al over the weekend and on Sunday morning, all of the cars in the parking lot of the hotel were covered on a light frost!
Yikes! Yuk, GCD!!! Being a 'gulf dweller' like yourself...I start getting chilly when it dips below 70. We're only forecast for 60's today...back down in the 40's again the next couple of nights...brrrr
Baja, I think we pretty much get the same weather, give or take a rain shower or two!
LOL...Bone's probably over there going......mmmmmm, 40's...SHORTS WEATHER!! haha
Yah, we do pretty much. This year, alot of the stuff that's set up in texas and moved through LA and MS has dissipated by the time it got over here. And the seabreeze has spent most of the summer alot more inland. I'm thinkin' we're in for a cooler winter this year
hahaha yea woke up to 27* at my house according to my weather station.

Even the dog didnt want to go outside.

I did read that hazards asesment. I was just about to write up my Nor'Easter blog update but after looking at the model runs and other things I realized it wasn't necessary.
Yah, looks like it's not gonna be so ugly in the NE after all
We have a freezer at work that we keep our dough in. It's usually anywhere between 18 below and 30 below. Every time I go IN there, it reminds me of Ohio *laffs*
Yea looks like I have to wait till next week or later to see the white stuff. They do have a chance (30%) for it friday night but I just am not wseeing the shortwave being amplified enough.
ah freezers. I remeber working in them LOL 20 below inside and 80 outside, always good for a summer time flu. I did that for 5 years, no wonder I dont mind the cold :)
you know, alot of stuff would move through La but go North of us. Thank God we didn't see anything really tropical come through!
Bone, send some snow our way!! I would love snow....but only for 2 days haha
LOL GCD. Right now if I could send anything it would be 4 days of steady rain over all the south. You all really need it :(
I dunno *shrugs*, a little more rain sure would have been nice. I think the most rain we had all summer was from that Oct 17-19 outbreak. I think all we saw from TD10 was a trace and that was it
ahh Bone is laughing at us because we are in the low 40's........ok, we'll get our turn, when the NE is totally snowed in and we are free to move about the South.............he he
LOL !!
ewwwww Oil tops 98 bucks a barrel overnight :( Man its going to suck to fill the tank in the home and the truck this winter :/

Watch out later today the Fed is supposed to announce weather or not America will have enough oil for this winter to refine if we have a prolong cold snap.

Ali Belshi on CNN said something a little funny and contaversial about it... said it amazes him we have a military presence in an oil baring country yet we have a shortfall of imports :/

I dont know.... back to the weather....
poor Ga...what are they going to do when they run out of water?
GC? During the winter, we can always tell the folks from up north. They're SWIMMING in the gulf (brrrrrrr) and walking around in shorts!! *laffs*
By the looks of it Noel and the "cold front" are the storms of the yr. Felix and Dean hit the bench and try again. Hav a nice day.
LOL GCD I dont mind the snow ins. Kinda nice actually. Can just stay at home under the blanket with the dog and the wife.

Better then driving on the roads with the idiots that think because you have 4wd or AWD you can do 70mph on snow and ice covered roads.

My Dad always told me, "4 wheel DRIVE doesn't mean 4 wheel STOP."
Ya know, Bone...that's one of the things that I DO feel really sorry for you guys up there about...winter heating. My winter bill is usually only around 50...55 bucks. I was a single parent for so long that I wonder how alot of folks up that way DO it. My heart really goes out to the folks that struggle ANYWAY, then have to try to struggle their way through trying to stay warm through the winter :(
ROFL @ '4 wheel drive, 4 wheel stop'
Baja its funny but true. I am always amazed when we have 4 inches on the roads he idiots in the land Rovers or Expitditions that drive at normal highway speeds. Usually a few miles up the road they find out the hard way though :(


Yea winter heating bills sting bad up here. 50 bucks? I would love to see that I usually run for the entire winter season (Nov-April) close to 3 thousand.
I hear ya. I lived, for ONE winter (lol) in Eastern Ohio (that was ENOUGH for me!)....and I remember how folks would do just that..and...SMACK!! I always HATED driving in the snow...I'd drive like a granny (laffs) and I figured...dont like it? Go around, fool!! lol
OUCH!! I always look foward to winter because I dont have to use heat very often, and when I do...it's electric. Now, during the summer...I think my highest bill this year was $175 and I whined about THAT!! lol
LOL Baja I wish. My electric bill is that high every month, thanks to my Koi pond, but what is good is around May 1st or so I top off the oil tank and as of today still have a half tank left. Now that the cold hit probably by mid month i will need a fill up and it will last about a month or so depending on how cold it gets. I try and keep the thermostats below 67 degrees in the winter to save oil. The wife hates it but I tell her a 12 dollar blanket and a 30 dollar sweater is alot cheaper then a 500 dollar oil delivery
yea I am the same way Baja in the winter. I drive slow enough to get where I am going in a timely fashion but keep it slow enough not to crash. I let the idiots drive around me and laugh as I see them spun out down the road.
The wife hates it but I tell her a 12 dollar blanket and a 30 dollar sweater is alot cheaper then a 500 dollar oil delivery

LOL! I hear ya. I used to tell my son that...'Cold? Put more clothes on!!"
exactly!!!!

then she tries to tell me the dog is cold :) I tell her...

How? Its wearing a fur coat.

all this while the dog is laying there spread out on the floor with a smile on its face and sleeping
We got heat indices in the 105-110 range this summer, so the air got more of a workout *laffs*
ROFL @ 'the dog is cold' !!!!!
I REEEEEEEEEEALLY hate to have to admit this...but that sure is a 'gal thing' to say!! *laffing*
ewww 105 to 110 :(

when it gets to 100 here I stay indoors under the AC vent
as I typed that I was thinking of Bill Engval and the "here's your sign" jokes
I'm STILL sitting here laffin (out loud) about 'the dog is cold'
LMAO!! I love him!! Funny as heck!!!
:)
Realtime visible images from the Geostationary satellite METEOSAT 7.

The Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau



SE Indian Ocean

Good Morning All
Lookin' mighty blue (*laffs*)

Link
Cool pics, 456

G'morning to ya
Looks like LES for OH, PA and NY
yea LES is finally ere but want to know the funny thing? Because of the warm October the Lakes are TOO warm to cause significant LES events right now.
morning 456. cool shots
Id really HATE to hear your idea of WARM *laffs*
Is that false return or is the radar showing snow in Georgia? I just took a look at the radar and saw that.
92L is not forecast to become a tropical or subtropical depression/storm from the NHC, but SSD continuously reports that 92L is already subtropical. which site should I believe?
cch false echos on the GA radars
Taking a look at the global forecast models, it looks like Alaska is in for a major winter storm that will slam the entire state with hurricane force winds and blinding rain on the coast and blizzardesque conditions inland. Good luck to them.
Yah, I noticed those too. That's Macon. They're cold and clear
Bobby all the SSD is saying is that the system is subtropical in nature not that it is a subtropical storm. Being its an invest and they run Dorvak on it they need to classify it as either ST or T in nature
Baja usually the Great Lakes at this time of year would be in the mid to lower 40s but because of the Warm October they are running upper 40's to lower 50's.

That temp makes the areas in the snow belt to have a warm layer which limits the precip amounts in the atmosphere. Kinda like the reason coastal areas on the EC hardly see snow during a winter storm.
Looks like the models are showing it currently...cold core asymetric

Link
Wow, that IS warm for up there. I remember dippin my toes in the water (during the summer) up by Cedar Point. HOLY CRAP!! I thought THAT was cold, lol!!!
Funny how we get used to the weather where we happen to live. Down here? The gulf gets under 80 and I stop going IN it...too chilly!! haha
LOL Baja under 80 LOL if I ever see 80 in the water I would probably sweat. Usually run low to mid 70s in late summer. Spring is in the 50s fall in the 60s winter can be as low as 35 or below.

When I was younger and braver I would surf the ecellent swells from Nor'Easters. 10* outside air temps and 35* waters.

Now I just shovel and run inside for a Hot Tottie
ROFL @ 'run inside"

I was born and raised in San Francisco and grew up swimming in the pacific...50's. I don't think I'd try that NOW!!!!!
I'm finding, the older I get the less tolerance I have for the cold. I think I understand WHY the snowbirds come down here...haha!
Man!! Macon is forecast to get down to 17 tonite!! *chatters teefs*
yea I hear ya. The older i get the more the cold goes right through me.

I used to shovel, then went with a small snow thrower, now is the jumbo snow blower. As you can see as I got older I got smarter and faster :)
92L starting to fire covection over its center





LOL !!!
Good morning everyone. Been really busy as of late so i haven't had time to stop by. Whats the word these days?
CFE showing it as warm cored now



Hmmm...no buoy OR ships reports from the area of 92L since yesterday.

From Valpariso Express (11/6)

2007-Nov-06 00:00 N 42°30' W 038°42' 31 kts. Everything else looks to be in the 15-20 kt range
Man!! Macon is forecast to get down to 17 tonite!! *chatters teefs*

Where did you see that Baja, only supposed to get down to the high 20's here in North Ga.
Looking at all the models and the concensus....looked to be MARGINALLY asymetrical cold core...LOL @ MARGINALLY
NorthofAtlanta 1:19 PM GMT on November 07, 2007

Here

Look at the 5 day forecast...brrr
yea I think today will be the switch over Baja. Might see something in the 11am discussion
I hear ya. I was looking at the SSTs....moving over slightly warmer ...then back up into cooler temps
I KNOOOOOOW it's slow when I start clicking 'red dots'
yea I saw that too. Just needs a little while for it to blow up a little to sustain the colder waters. Might only be tropical for a day but then might be a powerful extra tropical system after that
That's what I was thinking too, Bone
I know the NHC says its not going to happen but I have a sneaking suspicion
They've changed to low 30's now, had me worried for a minute. Did notice one good thing, there's a 30% chance of rain next Tues.
high 42 today low 27 tonight brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

LOL NoA...my bad *laffs @ self* 'C'...haha! STILL gonna be COLD. They show us as a SLIGHT chance of rain Tuesday also. Pretty bad when we start hangin on a 30% chance of rain, huh?
*Throws bone a $30 sweater*

LOL
Right now I'll take a heavy mist, were under a red flag fire warning and the leaves are starting to fall. Not a good combination.
LOL Baja :)

I have my cold weather stuff unpacked already. Just glad I will be home before the 27 degrees. Hopefully the contractor gets the damn windows in today. Last night was cold with just plastic sheeting to stop the cold
Oh!! YIKES!!! @ plastic windows!!!
yea gotta love remodeling
Same here, NoA. I have to go out today a take a pic of the 'fall colors' here in the panhandle. LOL..the ivy in the pine tree outside is bright RED!!! haha
NOT!
GM,all
wow looks liek a wild ride up there Baja
Morning NE
Link

This would be fun :)
Mornin NE
lol@cold weather talk,I really had to scrape my car windows this morning.
damn websense. blockes youtube here at work
I used to work in the travel industry...back when 'big' cruise ships were still below 40k tons. Back when you could still FEEL the sea. I miss those days
434. BajaALemt 1:54 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Link

This would be fun :)

NOT
Ah got frost by you NE? was too windy here for it to form. Tomorrow morning though I might have some. Calm winds and 27 degrees might just do it :)
Man, they REALLY dont want you guys to have ANY fun at work, huh? *laffs*
440. Bonedog 1:58 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
Ah got frost by you NE? was too windy here for it to form. Tomorrow morning though I might have some. Calm winds and 27 degrees might just do it :)

Yeh,lot of moisture around after yesterday's rains,got down to 30 last night
no Baja. We call them the IT Nazi's. If they even think we may be able to have fun the site gets blocked. I have to backdoor the wunderground site to get here. I usually cant see the avatar pics, the backgrounds, or some of the linked photos.
I worked for IBM's Federal Sector...and the IT guys were really bad. No fun at ALL!!
ooo NE you had Ice not frost LOL
look at this graph makes you mad




Link
not really,scraped off pretty easily
446. Bonedog 2:07 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
look at this graph makes you mad



depressing subject,oil companies ripping people off daily while they rack up incredible record breaking profits.
thats good NE. Wait till the real mess starts. Scraping will be much harder
450. IKE
NEW BLOG!
449. Bonedog 2:10 PM GMT on November 07, 2007
thats good NE. Wait till the real mess starts. Scraping will be much harder

lol,full of all kinds of good news this morning.
I hear that NE I love it when they say we were down in the 4th quarter to 5 billion dollars from last quartes 6 billion.

Billions in profit yet the prices go through the roof and they say also we dont have enough oil stockpiled.

Reminds me of the Capitol One comercials.