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Mexico's 2nd Highest Death Toll From an Atlantic Storm Since 1988: 45 Killed in Earl

By: Jeff Masters 9:20 PM GMT on August 10, 2016

Hurricane Earl, reinvigorated to a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds as it passed over the southernmost portion of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Friday, August 5, dropped torrential rains in excess of twelve inches over the coastal mountains of Mexico east of Mexico City over the weekend, unleashing flash floods and mudslides that are being blamed for 45 deaths in Mexico. This is an unusually high death toll for Mexico, which prides itself on its excellent civil defense efforts that usually keep hurricane death tolls quite low. According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, the last Atlantic hurricane to exact a higher death toll than Earl in Mexico was Hurricane Gilbert of 1988, which hit Cozumel and the Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 5 storm, killing 240 people in the nation. The National Hurricane Center, though, gives HUrricane Stan of 2005 a death toll of 80 in Mexico. There have been three Pacific hurricanes since 1988 to have higher death tolls in Mexico--Hurricane Manuel of 2013 (169 killed), Hurricane Pauline of 1997 (220 killed), and Hurricane Ismael of 1995 (105 killed.) Earl made landfall near Belize City, Belize at 2 am EDT Thursday, August 4, 2016 as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds, causing over $100 million in damage to agriculture in Belize. Infrastructure in the capital, Belize City, experienced additional heavy damage from Earl's storm surge and winds. Earl also killed thirteen people in the Dominican Republic when the storm was still classified as a tropical wave. Given the high death toll in Mexico and extensive damage in Belize, it is quite possible the name Earl will be retired from the active list of hurricane names next year.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Earl approaching a second landfall along the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico at 12:50 pm EDT August 5, 2016. After losing strength and becoming a tropical depression during a long traverse of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Earl became re-invigorated to a tropical storm with 60 mph winds in this image when the storm's center moved over the extreme southern portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Residents Enriqueta Diaz (R) and Juana Lechuga work with shovels amid the damage caused by a landslide ensuing the passage of Tropical Storm Earl in the community of Xaltepec, Puebla state, eastern Mexico on August 8, 2016. A total of 29 people died in the communities of Xaltepec, Tlaola and Huauchinango in the Mexican state of Puebla after their homes were buried by landslides following heavy rains from Earl, which reached Mexican territory on Thursday as a tropical storm and Saturday was only a remnant low on Saturday. Image credit: ALFREDO ESTRELLA/AFP/Getty Images.


Figure 3. Total rainfall amounts for the period August 6 - 8, 2016 over Mexico. The town of Huauchinango, where 25 people died in mudslides (marked by a black diamond), received 315.2 mm (12.41") of rain. Image credit: Conagua, the Mexican weather service.


Quiet in the Atlantic
NHC is not highlighting any Atlantic tropical weather threat areas in their Tropical Weather Outlook, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis are showing anything developing for the next five days. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Western Pacific, where we can expect to see increased typhoon activity over the next week or two. Long-range model runs show that the MJO and an associated area of rising air and surface low pressure in the Western Pacific will continue for the next two weeks, and the models predict that the Northwest Pacific's Tropical Storm Conson will be joined by at least one other named storm next week in the waters a few hundred miles northeast of the Philippines. Compensating sinking air and surface high pressure are expected over the tropical Atlantic, which should result in a relatively quiet period for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.


Figure 4. Departure from average (at an altitude of 200 mb) of the velocity potential, a good measure of large-scale rising or sinking motions in the atmosphere. Where large scale rising motion occurs (green colors), surface low pressure and storminess typically result. Where large-scale sinking motion occurs (orange colors), surface high pressure and fair weather are favored. This 10-day forecast made at 12Z (8 am EDT) August 10, 2016 valid on August 20, 2016, shows that rising air and storminess associated with the active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is expected over the Western Pacific. This will favor increased typhoon activity there. A compensating area of sinking air and surface high pressure is expected over the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, which should suppress hurricane activity there. The forecast was made by the GEFS model, also known as the GFS ensemble model, a collection of 21 runs of the GFS model made using slightly different initial conditions in order to generate an ensemble of possible outcomes. Image credit: Tropical Tidbits.

Our next post will be Friday afternoon at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Maters! Wow, can't believe the statistic, truly sad that a good amount of people passed away from Earl's impact.
Thanks for the update, Dr Masters. Tragic news...
By the way, thanks also for the EM-DAT link. I had forgotten about this useful online ressource.
Not saying we will not get decent rains at some point from this mess, but it has been a total bust so far in Mobile, Al. We have barely had a drop at my location in Mobile
Thanks Dr.Masters! So this season that may have one named retired already is a bust? Hmm...
Was out for a walk with my Mom taking pictures of all of the shrooms in our yard and I casually mention it's time for a new blog entry....come back and find there's a new blog entry!

Sad news from Mexico. :(
hopefully the forecast is right and by sept we have a major league trough to deflect them all.
Quiet in the Atlantic
NHC is not highlighting any Atlantic tropical weather threat areas in their Tropical Weather Outlook

really jeff mater what do you call this then ? a space monkey ? even no the NHC it has no ch but still its some in the tropic weather out look


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located just southwest of Mobile,
Alabama, continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized thunderstorms over much of the north-central and
northeastern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas. This system is
forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward and move inland
by Thursday, with little or no development expected due to
unfavorable upper-level winds and its proximity to land. However,
locally heavy rainfall are possible along portions of the northern
and northeastern coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
Maybe the good Doc and Mr.Henson should let Taz write a blog entry so that we could then point out all the obvious spelling errors and run on sentences.Appreciate the evening Blog Doctor M.If Earl does get retired could they consider the name Einstein? Hurricane Einstein has a nice ring to it.
In the last 5 days, this particular CoCoRaHS rain gauge in Florida has received 12.69" of rainfall. Pretty impressive. Located on the water's edge in Bay County. Not sure if it's officially in Panama City or not. *shrug*

FL-BY-10

AL-MB-60 in Mobile, Alabama has received 2.01" of rain the last three days. Should check in with that station tomorrow to see the what additional rains that person got.

Edited for clarification.
Pretty cool radar loop of two outflow boundaries about to converge.
Looks like more big time heat coming for this weekend, heat indexes expected to be in the 100s.
tropical Atlantic, which should result in a relatively quiet period for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.


i would take that back that other then Earl the Atlantic has been very quit since july and now AUGS is picking up where july lift off back too a deep sleep
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters....
it may be boring, but I really hope the quiet period in the Atlantic lasts about 6 more weeks...
... nothing boiling in the Atlantic ...

Good shot of the space monkey, that's currently sitting eating bananas in the jungle of the Gulf of Mexico:

Doesn't 0% chance really mean 'no' chance

He also said the models aren't showing anything - which is consistent with the NHC statement

Quoting 7. thetwilightzone:

Quiet in the Atlantic
NHC is not highlighting any Atlantic tropical weather threat areas in their Tropical Weather Outlook

really jeff mater what do you call this then ? a space monkey ? even no the NHC it has no ch but still its some in the tropic weather out look


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located just southwest of Mobile,
Alabama, continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized thunderstorms over much of the north-central and
northeastern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas. This system is
forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward and move inland
by Thursday, with little or no development expected due to
unfavorable upper-level winds and its proximity to land. However,
locally heavy rainfall are possible along portions of the northern
and northeastern coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
never know with these tropical systems earl hopefully will be retired
Quoting 9. Astrometeor:

In the last 5 days, this particular CoCoRaHS rain gauge in Florida has received 12.69" of rainfall. Pretty impressive. Located on the water's edge in Bay County. Not sure if it's officially in Panama City or not. *shrug*

FL-BY-10

AL-MB-60 in Mobile, Alabama has received 2.01" of rain the last three days. Should check in with that station tomorrow to see the what additional rains that person got.

Edited for clarification.


In the last 90 days my neighborhood CoCoRaHS site has a T. CoCoRaHS
Quoting 10. Sfloridacat5:

Pretty cool radar loop of two outflow boundaries about to converge.



Right over my house, apparently. And the wind just picked up.
This is cool. The NWS Houston evening discussion even uses WU Blog terminology:

Into this evening, what little convection we`ve seen
should wane pretty quickly, and in general, skies should begin to
clear out. There is increased uncertainty farther east as the
`Gulf Blob`, for lack of a better term, slowly drifts west or
west-northwestward and high clouds may linger.
Quoting 20. leofarnsworth:
Show a little respect.

Heaven can wait Leo Farnsworth.
great name

The gyres are separating.
Quoting 7. thetwilightzone:

Quiet in the Atlantic
NHC is not highlighting any Atlantic tropical weather threat areas in their Tropical Weather Outlook

really jeff mater what do you call this then ? a space monkey ? even no the NHC it has no ch but still its some in the tropic weather out look


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located just southwest of Mobile,
Alabama, continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized thunderstorms over much of the north-central and
northeastern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas. This system is
forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward and move inland
by Thursday, with little or no development expected due to
unfavorable upper-level winds and its proximity to land. However,
locally heavy rainfall are possible along portions of the northern
and northeastern coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

If it's zero percent they're not highlighting it for development most likely just reassuring people with that blob being so close that there's nothing to worry about development wise. (P.S do you proofread your posts I'm not trying to attack you I'm just curious because the grammar/ spelling errors makes comments hard to read sometimes)
Late good night hello from Germany and thanks for the new blog. Poor victims of Earl deserve at least a bit of attention, for sure.

I thought to write something about those unusual current wind patterns with the Hudson Bay Cyclone, the trough of cold air over central Europe (= where I'm shivering - but the next heatwave is in sight) and the northeasterly dry winds blowing in the southwestern Mediterranean and Eastern Atlantic, fueling those bad wild fires in France, Iberia and some of the East Atlantic islands (as PlazaRed and 999 have pointed out in the last blog), but it's too complicated for me, especially in the middle of the night ;-)

Instead, you may enjoy a look at the stunning weather photos in this gallery:

In pictures: Weather Photographer of the Year
BBC, 10 August 2016
The Royal Meteorological Society and The Royal Photographic Society have announced the finalists of the 2016 Weather Photographer of the Year competition. Drawn from more than 800 entries, in two age categories, the judges are now asking the public to pick a winner. Here are the finalists. ...

F.e. this one:

Camelia Czuchnicki: Clash of the Storms in New Mexico
It's epic and tragic at the same time. Tonight the wildfires are closing in on Marseille (France), they're at the gates of the city. I'm following the newspaper "La Provence" live RSS feed, which is reporting things like ; translated quote - Julien Ruas, the firefighters' spokesperson at the mayor's office : "It is at Marseille's door ! If we can't stop it here - and know that we're putting all our forces into the battle - it is going to pass the city gates."
Roadblocks have been installed, a column of firefighters has arrived from Ardeche department, located about 100 miles north of the city (edit : actually 20 columns from outside the Bouches-du-Rhone dept have been sent to Marseille),. Inhabitants of a neighborhood north of the city report a "blizzard of ashes" raining on them. It is said the fire could reach the northernmost neighborhoods in less than an hour. I hope I can bring you some good news about this later on. I'm in France, but fortunately for me I live far from Marseille. A bit of context from Euronews:
Wildfires in Provence in Southern France force thousands to evacuate homes
And the satellite image of the wildfires in Portugal and Madeira today : Link
Marseille webcams - nothing to see at the moment. That could change later on.
Language, please show some respect.
Quoting 20. leofarnsworth:


Quoting 4. Tcwx2:

Thanks Dr.Masters! So this season that may have one named retired already is a bust? Hmm...


Certainly not a bust so far but remember just because it was active early doesn't mean it will continue.
Today is day 19 at or above 90 for Rochester, NY. The average in 9, and the record is an astonishing 32 days back in 1952. Should be above 90 for the next two days, and should only cool down to 81F, which is average, before heating up again.
Quoting 20. leofarnsworth:




reported
32. vis0
Throughout Earl life/pre formation Earl was not taken as seriously AS TO RAINFALL  SPECIALLY for being in the new atmosphere v2.0 during the neutral ENSO   We had a warning with Dominica last year and that non-formed "tropical outburst". As another member mentioned we need some sort of category next to the saffir-simpson that adds the potential water content as a circle where the inside colour is as to TS intensity and a rim around that inner circle has "+" signs to indicate the odds are high for GW enhanced  heavy rains, SPECIALLY as to LOCAL LEVELS.


For icons as to weather events try:: http://www.weather.gov/forecast-icons or          &n bsp;          )uh non of my comment buttons have been working for ~week i no longer send WxU for help tickets since after many!9 2013 till 2014) and not 1 reply except for an insult i stopped asking for help, recently over 10 WxU mail errors so i just take a deep breath move on and try later.(at least the blog has stayed up   was going to post a my head being knocked on but nah)

If you see links on my comments i use an HTML editor to create those.

oh look suction guy is brought in...luckily not a deep thinker otherwise he'd let a bungee chord hang, remotely release another rope to  pull bungee down tie your self to bungee and shazam!/// your on the roof 9or in the 7th floor window cut up) before you can say build what wall...its not a secret its in episode 45 of Coyote vs. road runner.
From 2118z to 2218z, 60 minutes. New Orleans International Airport picked up 1.36 inches of rainfall from southward moving convective rainband.
That feeder band squall gave me .98 in a lil over a hour here.

Well Earl sure proved you don't need a major hurricane to have major loss of life and damage.

Looking at the MJO at the end of the post, my question from 2 blogs ago comes again. I keep hearing that is has a cycle of 60-90 day movement, but in recent years it seems as though the MJO is almost never in the ATL and when it is, it lasts here only a few days then hops quickly back to the WPAC. Is this oscillation really a defined entity on its own that modifies the atmosphere, or is it just what we call wherever a whole heap of thunderstorms are?
I had a heat nap
just woke up
thanks for the new read doc

38. IDTH
Quoting 36. LemieT:

Well Earl sure proved you don't need a major hurricane to have major loss of life and damage.

Looking at the MJO at the end of the post, my question from 2 blogs ago comes again. I keep hearing that is has a cycle of 60-90 day movement, but in recent years it seems as though the MJO is almost never in the ATL and when it is, it lasts here only a few days then hops quickly back to the WPAC. Is this oscillation really a defined entity on its own that modifies the atmosphere, or is it just what we call wherever a whole heap of thunderstorms are?

Erica did the same last year.
Quoting 27. 999Ai2016:

It's epic and tragic at the same time. Tonight the wildfires are closing in on Marseille (France), they're at the gates of the city. ...

Very bad, 999 :-( France really has to meet a lot of challenges currently ...

Hundreds evacuated from path of wildfire in southern France
Marseille, France’s second-largest city, in danger as high winds whip the blaze onward and airport reroutes planes to make way for firefighting aircraft
Associated Press in Paris, Thursday 11 August 2016 00.11 BST
Hundreds of people have been evacuated from homes in the path of wildfires in southern France which are creeping toward the Mediterranean port city of Marseille.
Whipped on by high winds, the blaze has destroyed homes in the town of Vitrolles, about 25km (15.5 miles) north of Marseille, and in nearby Pennes-Mirabeau. A spokesperson for Marseille airport said on Wednesday that it was rerouting incoming flights to make way for firefighting aircraft.
“The fire is progressing. It’s progressing fast,” Marseille’s deputy mayor, Julien Ruas, said on BFM-TV. He said the city was setting up firewalls on the corridor leading toward it but if the fire passes those “it will move toward the northern neighbourhoods of Marseille”.
He called the size of the fire “absolutely exceptional” and advised people to stay off the roads. ...


Fire news from Portuguese and Spain territories and other countries are devastating as well. Parts of the world are ablaze ...
Quoting 37. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I had a heat nap
just woke up
thanks for the new read doc





What if the heat index ever reached 120 degrees in Houston? What would happen then?
Quoting 40. pureet1948:




What if the heat index ever reached 120 degrees in Houston? What would happen then?

It would be very hot
A day in the life of the hurricant

Quoting 41. MrTornadochase:


It would be very hot


I meant what kind of problems would this cause for residents, aside from being very hot?
I read the two today o boy
About a lucky swirl that made the grade
And though the two was rather sad
Well I just had to laugh

I saw the sat photograph'


Quoting 40. pureet1948:




What if the heat index ever reached 120 degrees in Houston? What would happen then?


IDK, what do you think would happen to Houston?
Quoting 39. barbamz:

Very bad, 999 :-( France really has to meet a lot of challenges currently ...

Hundreds evacuated from path of wildfire in southern France
Fire news from Portuguese and Spain territories and other countries are devastating as well. Parts of the world are ablaze ...
Yes, and lately the city of Funchal (Madeira I.) really took a bad blow. I hope they're able to contain the fires in S France. Officials just tried to reassure the people in Marseille (they're breathing a lot of smoke right now, various ops and evacs are still ongoing on the edge of the city, firefighters are of course doing all they can), but I'm afraid of what's to come when the sun rises, and the rumors being spread over the internet regarding the origins of the fires are rather nasty. The situation is confusing right now, but it looks like authorities are in control and Marseille is no longer directly under threat from the wildfires tonight, although there are cities nearby where the fires aren't yet under control.

By the way, I really liked the pictures from the Hudson-cane in the last blog and in your last comment, and the weather photographs of the year as well. Thanks for sharing. :-)
It was very close to that yesterday...actual temp was 101 and heat index at airport was 115 ....they had reported heat index temp on local news of 124 in baytown....don't know how accurate that report was but I can tell u it's been feeling like a turkey in the oven on Thanksgiving day!! Lol
Today was 99 and 107 on heat index....little better but still nasty hot
Quoting 48. kallenjrtx:

Today was 99 and 107 on heat index....little better but still nasty hot


We saw a funeral procession stop at the Dairy Queen today...
Quoting 45. Bucsboltsfan:



IDK, what do you think would happen to Houston?


1. Widespread power outages from circuit overloads.

2. Emergency rooms swamped with heat-related injuries.

3. Mayor Turner declares an emergency.

4. Unnecessary outdoor activities banned.

5. Burn ban.

6. Residents urged not to go outdoors if they don't have to. I mean NOT TO GO OUTDOORS period.

7. Retail stores urged to cut back their hours to reduce electricity consumption.

Assuming, of course, these things aren't already happening.


Well, you asked and I answered.
Were finally down to 80F

Fall feels good.

💔
Quoting 50. pureet1948:



1. Widespread power outages from circuit overloads.

2. Emergency rooms swamped with heat-related injuries.

3. Mayor Turner declares an emergency.

4. Unnecessary outdoor activities banned.

5. Burn ban.

6. Residents urged not to go outdoors if they don't have to. I mean NOT TO GO OUTDOORS period.

Assuming, of course, these things aren't already happening.


Well, you asked and I answered.


No, you asked and you answered it. Listening to you, Houston has doom in it's future for sure. Good luck with that.
Quoting 53. Bucsboltsfan:



No, you asked and you answered it. Listening to you, Houston has doom in it's future for sure. Good luck with that.


Not so much doom as inconvenience. Your move, bucsboltsfan
Almost four months of North America's 2016 season has passed. Even given the proverbial Saharan late season activity in which waves shoot off Africa like stray bullets in Chicago, I feel pretty confident in closing the books on the Atlantic hurricane season this year. I also feel extremely confident human-induced climate change is the big factor. Two words: dry air and wind. Well, that's more than two words, but so then is all of this.
OK....

Here is a interesting look of the surface low, as it will go over the 89F water of Lake Pontchartrain.

Quoting 52. Patrap:

Were finally down to 80F

Fall feels good.

💔
86.4 here as per pws
humidex 97
Quoting 36. LemieT:

Well Earl sure proved you don't need a major hurricane to have major loss of life and damage.

Looking at the MJO at the end of the post, my question from 2 blogs ago comes again. I keep hearing that is has a cycle of 60-90 day movement, but in recent years it seems as though the MJO is almost never in the ATL and when it is, it lasts here only a few days then hops quickly back to the WPAC. Is this oscillation really a defined entity on its own that modifies the atmosphere, or is it just what we call wherever a whole heap of thunderstorms are?



it rally depends on where the storm makes land fall now if it was in the USA then it would really not be a big deal for the USA less damge and deaths has the gulf coast and FL and TX are all flat with no mts



now if the storm made land fall in MX a cat 1 will be just has major has if it was a cat 5 has you got mts and mx is less flat so a cat 1 for them would be more of a major player for them has it would in the USA has the hvy rains could wash away hill sides and you get mub sides and there is where i think most of the deaths and damge happens in hurricanes in MX but i could be wrong
that's better than 105 tomorrow more time in the oven cant wait
62. vis0

Quoting 40. pureet1948:




What if the heat index ever reached 120 degrees in Houston? What would happen then?
- Those not use to the heat would head poleward and those use to tropical conditions would move into Houston, andale andale!...weird how a wall of heat will do more than any man made thing.

- On a side-note, i really thought southern Texas was going to have "Earl de la Javier join with the NoGoMx blob and create a tropical moisture outburst over SE Texas towards Alabama and the blip off the East coast of Florida retrograde all joining over Tampa, FL..reads likle a joke but 3 days ago i thought it was an 80% thing.  For info on my tinkerings its on my ml-d update blog (not the zilly blog)

Grothar or others that investigate with wisdom i wonder if those blobs that became active a few weeks ago and led to Earl and other worth following spins of Africa where infused with MJO over the Indian sea-westward?
We're 80 F in a swirling Tropical airmass here,...or like we call it,Weds in August.



The conditions are there for a big middle part of the hurricane season, SSTs which lead to total amount of energy stored could lead to another bigger and more devastating Hurricane Sandy scenario this fall or late summer months. As long as this energy remains untapped, it could lead to a devastatingly snowy winter this year, which would be pushed to great depths of snow with miller B snowstorm after snowstorm deepening to 960mb each time until that energy is no longer there, then the whole I95 corridor from DC to BOS will be buried underneath a ton of snow and crippled from everyday living.
Quoting 55. ohzone:

Almost four months of North America's 2016 season has passed. Even given the proverbial Saharan late season activity in which waves shoot off Africa like stray bullets in Chicago, I feel pretty confident in closing the books on the Atlantic hurricane season this year. I also feel extremely confident human-induced climate change is the big factor. Two words: dry air and wind. Well, that's more than two words, but so then is all of this.

climate change is more than likely causing an effect for sure
what that is and will be is yet too be understood
we have to wait like everyone else to see the end result
and the challenges that will face the planet as all this unfolds
at an ever faster and faster rate
Quoting 55. ohzone:

Almost four months of North America's 2016 season has passed. Even given the proverbial Saharan late season activity in which waves shoot off Africa like stray bullets in Chicago, I feel pretty confident in closing the books on the Atlantic hurricane season this year. I also feel extremely confident human-induced climate change is the big factor. Two words: dry air and wind. Well, that's more than two words, but so then is all of this.
Come back on November 30.
About last night... if you're still around, I'd like to apologize to you, 19N81W. I don't think I would like it if someone did that to me; I'd probably react even more than you did. I just get tired of all the baseless claims that get thrown around here, but I have to remain consistent with my principles. My depression has been shooting through the roof lately, but that's still not an excuse. I'm not normally like that. I'm sorry.

...I SO didn't wanna do that. Hubris, guys. I don't recommend it. >.>
Don't mean to brag but...I'm down to 78F with a swift 7mph breeze but humidity is literally at 99%.
Quoting 52. Patrap:

Were finally down to 80F

Fall feels good.

💔
Quoting 55. ohzone:

Almost four months of North America's 2016 season has passed. Even given the proverbial Saharan late season activity in which waves shoot off Africa like stray bullets in Chicago, I feel pretty confident in closing the books on the Atlantic hurricane season this year. I also feel extremely confident human-induced climate change is the big factor. Two words: dry air and wind. Well, that's more than two words, but so then is all of this.


Successful troll is successful.
Guys I am very worried about a hurricane hitting the Eastern Seaboard this season, waters up to 38-40N latitude can produce a category two hurricane and sustain one through landfall.
Quoting 64. TheDawnAwakening:

The conditions are there for a big middle part of the hurricane season, SSTs which lead to total amount of energy stored could lead to another bigger and more devastating Hurricane Sandy scenario this fall or late summer months. As long as this energy remains untapped, it could lead to a devastatingly snowy winter this year, which would be pushed to great depths of snow with miller B snowstorm after snowstorm deepening to 960mb each time until that energy is no longer there, then the whole I95 corridor from DC to BOS will be buried underneath a ton of snow and crippled from everyday living.

I really don't think so
winter will be late the cooling will take some time
maybe even till after Christmas winter comes but for only a couple of months
then back too spring summer in no time at all
as a matter of fact maybe in the end that will be new normal
two seasons
spring like for 4 months
8 months scorching hot dry like summer weather

who knows
Quoting 62. vis0:


- Those not use to the heat would head poleward and those use to tropical conditions would move into Houston, andale andale!...weird how a wall of heat will do more than any man made thing.

- On a side-note, i really thought southern Texas was going to have "Earl de la Javier join with the NoGoMx blob and create a tropical moisture outburst over SE Texas towards Alabama and the blip off the East coast of Florida retrograde all joining over Tampa, FL..reads likle a joke but 3 days ago i thought it was an 80% thing.  For info on my tinkerings its on my ml-d update blog (not the zilly blog)

Grothar or others that investigate with wisdom i wonder if those blobs that became active a few weeks ago and led to Earl and other worth following spins of Africa where infused with MJO over the Indian sea-westward?



I wouldn't put my money on any blobs until about the 22nd of August. Of course anything can spin up an fool us, but as I've been writing for about a week, it looks like a quiet period as the Doc also wrote in today's blog.

While these impulses are always closely watched this time of year, it looks like a temporary shutdown of the Atlantic.


I am sending my blobometer out for a tuneup and hope to have some news soon.

Although there is some hint in the models of possible cyclogenesis in the far eastern Atlantic, I can help but remain skeptical.


Quoting 71. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I really don't think so
winter will be late the cooling will take some time
maybe even till after Christmas winter comes but for only a couple of months
then back too spring summer in no time at all
as a matter of fact maybe in the end that will be new normal
two seasons
spring like for 4 months
8 months scorching hot dry like summer weather

who knows


I agree. The summer pattern is way different than it has been in years. A blatant lack of troughs. The ridge will probably hold all the way through at least October, which makes sense with seasonally-forced cooling in the West.
12z CMC has a trough that stays persistent over the OH Valley and Mid West with a strong southwesterly flow over the Eastern US, the EURO maintains troughing in the central US with a flow of southwesterly winds as well over the Eastern US, this should keep any tropical system off the coast for the next ten days.
Quoting 74. TheDawnAwakening:

12z CMC has a trough that stays persistent over the OH Valley and Mid West with a strong southwesterly flow over the Eastern US, the EURO maintains troughing in the central US with a flow of southwesterly winds as well over the Eastern US, this should keep any tropical system off the coast for the next ten days.


?

The pattern looks fairly normal to me. Southwesterly flow is normally found over the east coast. What, were you imagining some kind of westward-extending ridge? That's actually atypical over the subtropical areas.
Quoting 67. KoritheMan:

My depression has been shooting through the roof lately, but that's still not an excuse. I'm not normally like that. I'm sorry.

...I SO didn't wanna do that. Hubris, guys. I don't recommend it. >.>




Quoting 71. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I really don't think so
winter will be late the cooling will take some time
maybe even till after Christmas winter comes but for only a couple of months
then back too spring summer in no time at all
as a matter of fact maybe in the end that will be new normal
two seasons
spring like for 4 months
8 months scorching hot dry like summer weather

who knows
You see I don't know where you keep saying no troughs because we've been getting cool fronts all summer long. Is Wisconsin the only spot in the country that's not had a hot summer?
Quoting 78. Geoboy645:

You see I don't know where you keep saying no troughs because we've been getting cool fronts all summer long. Is Wisconsin the only spot in the country that's not had a hot summer?


Yeah, YOU guys have. I think Keep was talking about the eastern US, which generally DOESN'T see a lot of troughs during years where you guys do.
80. vis0

Quoting 57. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

86.4 here as per pws
i remember where KEEPEROFTHEGATE stated ~< month ago as how will New Yorker act when areas near by reach heat indecies 108F well its the 2nd go around the next 2,3 or 4 days.

i'm holding up though every time family needs to get something out of the fridge it becomes a nuisance not to mention that darn little lite above me going on and off, how am i suppose to focus on my webnet typing!






Quoting 72. Grothar:



I wouldn't put my money on any blobs until about the 22nd of August. Of course anything can spin up an fool us, but as I've been writing for about a week, it looks like a quiet period as the Doc also wrote in today's blog.

While these impulses are always closely watched this time of year, it looks like a temporary shutdown of the Atlantic.


I am sending my blobometer out for a tuneup and hope to have some news soon.

Although there is some hint in the models of possible cyclogenesis in the far eastern Atlantic, I can help but remain skeptical.



You can see greens now with that spot off West Africa.
Quoting 78. Geoboy645:

You see I don't know where you keep saying no troughs because we've been getting cool fronts all summer long. Is Wisconsin the only spot in the country that's not had a hot summer?
been dying before reaching me like vaporizing right before my eyes you have no idea how many I have watch hoping for it to reach me but when it does its nothing but a hot wind shift too a warm wind shift back too hot again and this week it will do it again you watch
when the moon goes full then storms will come till the next moon harvest in september
Quoting 60. thetwilightzone:




it rally depends on where the storm makes land fall now if it was in the USA then it would really not be a big deal for the USA less damge and deaths has the gulf coast and FL and TX are all flat with no mts



now if the storm made land fall in MX a cat 1 will be just has major has if it was a cat 5 has you got mts and mx is less flat so a cat 1 for them would be more of a major player for them has it would in the USA has the hvy rains could wash away hill sides and you get mub sides and there is where i think most of the deaths and damge happens in hurricanes in MX but i could be wrong


Sandy was at Cat 1 strength wind wise when she whacked the US, Allison hit Houston as a measly tropical storm, Diane of 1955 was the nation's first billion dollar storm and made landfall as a tropical storm.

Who says the US needs a strong hurricane to make a huge impact?
Quoting 78. Geoboy645:

You see I don't know where you keep saying no troughs because we've been getting cool fronts all summer long. Is Wisconsin the only spot in the country that's not had a hot summer?


Wisconsin has been plenty muggy in at least Jefferson County. Temps have been about normal but has been one of the more humid summers in recent memory. We had a dew point of 83 a few weekends ago. Probably corn sweat or whatever its proper name is. In any case not comfortable.
Quoting 81. Climate175:

You can see greens now with that spot off West Africa.



It could just be seaweed. :)
Quoting 86. Grothar:




It could just be seaweed. :)
Today was a rare tropical treat with several interesting features. I'll skip right to my point and say this: There were tons of cumulus clouds today, but none became cumulonimbus. As a matter of a fact, I didn't hear a single rumble of thunder. All of the showers were very shallow, I'm not old enough nor do I have enough experience to know if that is typical tropically. Strangely enough, the cumulus clouds were topped by altostratus clouds. Hoping for some more showers tonight. Goodnight!
If Earl gets retired, then it should be replaced with Elvis. Can't you just see Hurricane Elvis heading toward the Gulf Coast?
90. vis0
.
That was a storm in the making cruising along the gulf. Would have been a doozy with good real estate (Rich Gulf Waters) but it just didn't happen. Landlubber it was, unable to chart the seas and gold.
93. SLU
Quoting 67. KoritheMan:

About last night... if you're still around, I'd like to apologize to you, 19N81W. I don't think I would like it if someone did that to me; I'd probably react even more than you did. I just get tired of all the baseless claims that get thrown around here, but I have to remain consistent with my principles. My depression has been shooting through the roof lately, but that's still not an excuse. I'm not normally like that. I'm sorry.

...I SO didn't wanna do that. Hubris, guys. I don't recommend it. >.>


Here's the cure:

This is just the beginning.

We here are under a flood watch till Saturday.


we had a land falling cyclone in northern Quebec today from the Hudson's bay region

J/K

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
737 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 10 2016

Sounding discussion...

The 00z sounding continues to show a veering wind pattern
throughout the atmospheric column which is indicative of the broad
low pressure system currently impacting the Gulf south. The
sounding also continues to show a very warm and moist airmass over
the area. Lapse rates are basically moist adiabatic, and freezing
levels remain very high at around 17k feet. Wet bulb zero heights
are also very high at 15k feet. The sounding is basically
saturated throughout and this is easily shown by the high
precipitable water value of 2.78 inches and high mean mixing ratio
of 20 g/kg. These values are well above normal and are about the
maximum that the atmosphere can feasibly support given the
temperatures involved. As a result, extremely efficient warm rain
processes are expected in any showers and storms that develop.
With rainfall processes being so efficient the precipitable water
value can easily be realized resulting in rainfall rates of nearly 3
inches per hour. Ample instability is also noted with surface
based cape of 2800 j/kg, no convective inhibition or cap in place, and
a lited index of -5. Thus, continued convective development will
be possible through the night. 32

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 344 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 10 2016/

Short term...
main short-term change was to start the Flood Watch immediately
with early onset of heavy rainfall encroaching MS coast and
another axis becoming established along I-55 down to Houma area.
Some training evident around Houma and deeper tropical rains
indicated from lower Plaquemines Parish into Jackson co MS. Moving
forward, the placement of heavier rainfall becomes difficult and
driven by mesoscale influences on an otherwise very moist large
scale feature. At some point, probably with the morning package,
an expansion in area farther west and north will likely be needed,
but do anticipate the ongoing activity in the non-watch area to
diminish towards sunset, while the other watch area will maintain
for some time. Will continue to monitor trends. Models have come
into somewhat better agreement in placement of the heavier
rainfall, which is pretty close to original thinking. As surface
system becomes more involved with baroclinic frontal zone farther
west, the heavier rain focus should shift inland Fri and Sat but
have some uncertainties on inflow being choked off by coastal
convection, something the models struggle with at times.
Temperatures were indicated from model consensus, which is cooler
than normal due to extensive rainfall and cloud cover next couple
of days.

Long term...
frontal zone eventually merges and lifts the system northward but
Bermuda ridge appears to win out in keeping the front to the west
of the forecast area and dissipating. This would suggest a return
to a more seasonable regime of onshore flow and a return to sea
breeze processes for much of next week. Temperature should also
return to near normal levels as a result.

Aviation...
changeable weather over the area will cause conditions to bounce
between VFR and mfvr cigs/vsby with occasional periods of IFR vsby
in heavy rainfall that may dwell longer in bands, particularly at
kgpt, knew and khum next 24-30 hours.

Marine...
broad surface low pressure area off the MS coast and associated
rainfall has kept the winds stronger this afternoon, with 25 knots
gusting to lower end gales in the waters east of the MS river.
Some of this is spilling over into the outer waters west of the
river, so expanded Small Craft Advisory to include that area, and placed small
craft exercise caution headlines in the sounds for tonight. The
influences of the low should wane as the system moves inland
westward later Friday into Saturday.
you looking S of mobile bay Pat?
Quoting 50. pureet1948:



1. Widespread power outages from circuit overloads.

2. Emergency rooms swamped with heat-related injuries.

3. Mayor Turner declares an emergency.

4. Unnecessary outdoor activities banned.

5. Burn ban.

6. Residents urged not to go outdoors if they don't have to. I mean NOT TO GO OUTDOORS period.

7. Retail stores urged to cut back their hours to reduce electricity consumption.

Assuming, of course, these things aren't already happening.


Well, you asked and I answered.

There probably wouldn't be a burn ban with a heat index of 120 due to Huston being so close to the GOM the humidity would probably be elevated so actual temperatures would be much lower.
Indeed,... As it warrants a wary eye tonight.

Quoting 67. KoritheMan:

About last night... if you're still around, I'd like to apologize to you, 19N81W. I don't think I would like it if someone did that to me; I'd probably react even more than you did. I just get tired of all the baseless claims that get thrown around here, but I have to remain consistent with my principles. My depression has been shooting through the roof lately, but that's still not an excuse. I'm not normally like that. I'm sorry.

...I SO didn't wanna do that. Hubris, guys. I don't recommend it. >.>

Don't be depressed, you get to have me shuttle you around on Saturday. Then again, maybe that is why you are depressed... :P

(Sorry for the poor attempt at deadpan humor everyone)
I would agree

CIMMS will be updating soon, no use to continue posting maps.
Quoting 100. 1900hurricane:


Don't be depressed, you get to have me shuttle you around on Saturday. Then again, maybe that is why you are depressed... :P

(Sorry for the poor attempt at deadpan humor everyone)


Oh....so you're the reason! *narrows eyes*

:P
Base Radial Velocity .50 elevation

107. Tcwx2
If those storms hold up AND make it inland, I should get my fair share of rainfall tonight. Any thoughts? I am northeast of Andalusia, Alabama.
Quoting 101. Patrap:


Quoting 107. Tcwx2:

If those storms hold up AND make it inland, I should get my fair share of rainfall tonight. Any thoughts? I am northeast of Andalusia, Alabama.


I'm not a met but you can check out the nws disco in post #96.
Quoting 93. SLU:



Here's the cure:



It still somewhat blows my mind how Ike tracked so far west while almost exclusively north of 20*N. Perhaps even more so now that I'm better versed in tropical cyclone behavior and climatology. That was an extremely atypical track.
110. Tcwx2
Thanks!
Quoting 108. Patrap:



I'm not a met but you can check out the nws disco in post #96.
111. beell
Quoting 100. 1900hurricane:


Don't be depressed, you get to have me shuttle you around on Saturday. Then again, maybe that is why you are depressed... :P

(Sorry for the poor attempt at deadpan humor everyone)


Well, since Kori never emailed me the date until late last week and I didn't even know I had the email until yesterday, you will have to manage schlepping him around on your own. I made a promise to a girl this Saturday.

Anyway, one of you bring some rain.
:(
Quoting 111. beell:



Well, since Kori never emailed me the date until late last week and I didn't even know I had the email until yesterday, you will have to manage schlepping him around on your own. I made a promise to a girl this Saturday.

Anyway, one of you bring some rain.
:(


*horrified look*
114. beell
Quoting 113. Astrometeor:



*horrified look*


LOL. no worries. Car shopping w/daughter trip.
Deep cyclone over Hudson Bay
Scott Bachmeier - CIMSS sat. blog.

Larger version (click again to zoom)
Original accompanying text from the UW Madison - CIMSS twitter account :
"Looking like dance partners the #aurora glides alongside the Hudson Bay Low, captured by S-NPP #VIIRS DNB. Magical!"
Humidex:

91 at 11 pm

pws shows 83.3 at the moment get next heat index at midnight gonna be a warm overnight quick to heat in the am after sunrise


very cool image
here is a zoom up I just did with it nice storm structure
corrected its aurora lights
Now I've got a cool, brand new wallpaper :-) Thanks CIMSS - UW Madison.
Quoting 112. Gearsts:




Fish trash = Dry E Caribbean
just after midnight here heat index is 90 degrees its a hot summer night in the city
With Predicted 90F Days Tomorrow and Friday in Rochester, NY that would make it the 9th most in history at 21, and the most since 1988 (28 years) with 1/2 of August and September to go. Not 1 day in the 10 day forecast is forecasted to be below average, no high OR Low.
Quoting 109. 1900hurricane:


It still somewhat blows my mind how Ike tracked so far west while almost exclusively north of 20*N. Perhaps even more so now that I'm better versed in tropical cyclone behavior and climatology. That was an extremely atypical track.

Yep. But half the blog thinks that's the path every storm in the East Atlantic should take. Never any fish storms, even though that's far and away the typical track.
BOUNCING BABY BLOB SOUTH OF CUBA
Checked the wind map on that again, and it still looks like a cyclonic storm over land. Very impressive! I wonder what surface wind speed is now?

Quoting 95. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we had a land falling cyclone in northern Quebec today from the Hudson's bay region

J/K


It was high, oops, influenced by a high.

Quoting 109. 1900hurricane:


It still somewhat blows my mind how Ike tracked so far west while almost exclusively north of 20*N. Perhaps even more so now that I'm better versed in tropical cyclone behavior and climatology. That was an extremely atypical track.
And a healthy blob at that, moving SW. Hmmmm
Quoting 125. Tampa969mlb:

BOUNCING BABY BLOB SOUTH OF CUBA

Will be gone soon. Just afternoon blow up of showers.

Quoting 128. PuppyToes:

And a healthy blob at that, moving SW. Hmmmm


YOUR RIGHT, GOT HIT WITH SOME BLOB-B-GONE.....

Second storm to form in the South Atlantic this year. Well, no one ever saw it but it's probably subtropical. You'll probably find the subtropical storm in that image in no time. Conditions favorable (for subtropical development).
5am in houston, and its super humid and thick outside. its just way gross. time to evolve gills.
R.I.P Gil Clark NHC forecaster
Quoting 89. Tcwx2:

If Earl gets retired, then it should be replaced with Elvis. Can't you just see Hurricane Elvis heading toward the Gulf Coast?


There'd be a "whole lotta shakin' goin' on!"
here we are in the middle of Aug and nothing.
Quoting 135. islander101010:

here we are in the middle of Aug and nothing.

Except a subtropical SAtl storm that formed like 3 hours ago.
Hundreds evacuated from path of wildfire in southern France
Authorities in Marseille say France's second-largest city is now out of danger after high winds whipped blaze towards homes
Associated Press in Paris, Thursday 11 August 2016 11.31 BST
Hundreds of people are still unable to return to their homes in Marseille, but authorities have said that wind-whipped fires are no longer threatening the southern French city. ...
Meanwhile, Spanish authorities said five major fires were raging in the north-western region of Galicia, with 10 others under control. ...


Good morning abroad. I'm glad that most of the fires in Southern France are contained, although danger isn't over yet - and pics of the aftermath are very sad (some in the live report beneath):
EN DIRECT. Incendies pres de Marseille

Central Europe (with Germany) experienced very cool temps last night, being conquered by northwesterly airmasses.


Minimum temps last night in Europe (source wetteronline.de). Some places in Germany even saw temps below zero Celsius, means: frost. Map here.
The SAtl storm:

SAtl means South Atlantic, btw. And yes, conditions are favorable.
Was another blazing miserable day in Houston yesterday hitting 100 with heat index between 105-112 supposed to be right near 100 today. Hoping the weather forecast pans out as we're supposed to start seeing rain this weekend through next week and Temps back around 93-95 which will be some improvement!! 😎
2" of rain yesterday in my area of NW Florida. Rains started again in the middle of the night, probably going to get more than 2" today so finally the totals they were predicting are starting to come true. Very wet and tropical in NW Florida, currently light rain, 79 degrees, humidity 88% with a dew point of 75!
Quoting 140. 69Viking:

2" of rain yesterday in my area of NW Florida. Rains started again in the middle of the night, probably going to get more than 2" today so finally the totals they were predicting are starting to come true. Very wet and tropical in NW Florida, currently light rain, 79 degrees, humidity 88% with a dew point of 75!


Some were predicting 30-40" on here. Most areas around Fl have seen 2-10". Nice soaking rains but nothing like last August when I got 15" in one day.
Quoting 109. 1900hurricane:


It still somewhat blows my mind how Ike tracked so far west while almost exclusively north of 20*N. Perhaps even more so now that I'm better versed in tropical cyclone behavior and climatology. That was an extremely atypical track.
Ike was originally forecasted to track through the Bahamas and over Florida, which would have been devastating for us. Storms like Ike and Andrew [and Georges] illustrate both the power of the high and also the importance of predicting its orientation. I particularly remember how taken aback everyone was when forecast models began showing Ike's southern shift in track...
Thanks dok.
Quoting 133. islander101010:

R.I.P Gil Clark NHC forecaster
when?
Quoting 94. Patrap:

This is just the beginning.

We here are under a flood watch till Saturday.





Don't feel so bad, Pat. I'm expecting heavy rain this weekend into early next week.
Sad to see the death toll from Earl rise so high. I notice it seems no deaths have been reported in Belize. To me this just reinforces the lesson Joaquin taught us last year; the wind may be bad, but the water is worse.....

:-(

Quoting 146. BahaHurican:

Sad to see the death toll from Earl rise so high. I notice it seems no deaths have been reported in Belize. To me this just reinforces the lesson Joaquin taught us last year; the wind may be bad, but the water is worse.....

:-(




Yes, I agree, that is very sad, but then again, Heresy grows from idleness.
BBL, y'all... gotta run. At least for now we are clear and not too hot.... Looks to be steamy and stormy later on, though....
Bye.....
Quoting 141. Bucsboltsfan:


Some were predicting 30-40" on here. Most areas around Fl have seen 2-10". Nice soaking rains but nothing like last August when I got 15" in one day.


I think for our area most of the official forecasts had us pegged for 6-12" of rain. That seems like a pretty good forecast since we'll most likely go over the 6" point today I feel and have at least one more day of pretty good rains according to the official forecast.

I've seen where it didn't rain for most of July, August and September around here and much rather the rain. Everything looks so clean and all the grass, trees and bushes are a deep green color showing no stresses for needing water!
baha here you go http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20160810_pa_GilClark. pdf
Quoting 140. 69Viking:

2" of rain yesterday in my area of NW Florida. Rains started again in the middle of the night, probably going to get more than 2" today so finally the totals they were predicting are starting to come true. Very wet and tropical in NW Florida, currently light rain, 79 degrees, humidity 88% with a dew point of 75!


Different thing between yesterday's rain and today is a little more wind associated with today's storms.
Quoting 138. NunoLava1998:

The SAtl storm:

SAtl means South Atlantic, btw. And yes, conditions are favorable.


That can't be tropical in nature, can it?
Watched Jim Cantore talk about the tropics. He paints a bleak picture for development. Dry sinking air will prevail and get even worse over the next couple of weeks. All the energy should be in the West Pacific.
wonder what gil thought when he was in charge of nhc? a up and come forecaster got on tv and claimed nhc was wrong and that gilbert was going to make landfall on the Texan coast. gil must of been flustered. thats history
Good Morning Folks. Was out of town the past two weeks moving my Daughter from Atlanta to Chicopee, Mass and missed most of the weather issues. Sorry to hear about the deaths from Earl. The weather on our road trip was beautiful all the way up I-85 and back on yesterday in the NE and Shenandoah Valley regions.

Hit my 10th Anniversary on this Blog on Monday while I was on the road; time flies. The past few years were a little rough on here with lots more trolling and other distractions but this year so far has seen some great discussion on the blog and some real efforts to learn about the issues being discussed on the part of some of the newer members....................Keep it Up.
That mass of rain is just parked off of the Mississippi coast. We had a few banding showers yesterday but nothing major and zero lightning in my area. Skies here are certainly gray and ominous. Hoping for a show later as I have the day off to weather watch until time to get my daughter from school
Quoting 156. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks. Was out of town the past two weeks moving my Daughter from Atlanta to Chicopee, Mass and missed most of the weather issues. Sorry to hear about the deaths from Earl. The weather on our road trip was beautiful all the way up I-85 and back on yesterday in the NE and Shenandoah Valley regions.

Hit my 10th Anniversary on this Blog on Monday; time flies. The past few years were a little rough on here will lots more trolling and other distractions but this year so far has seen some great discussion on the blog and some real efforts to learn about the issues being discussed on the part of some of the newer members....................Keep it Up.


Welcome back!
Quoting 156. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks. Was out of town the past two weeks moving my Daughter from Atlanta to Chicopee, Mass and missed most of the weather issues. Sorry to hear about the deaths from Earl. The weather on our road trip was beautiful all the way up I-85 and back on yesterday in the NE and Shenandoah Valley regions.

Hit my 10th Anniversary on this Blog on Monday; time flies. The past few years were a little rough on here will lots more trolling and other distractions but this year so far has seen some great discussion on the blog and some real efforts to learn about the issues being discussed on the part of some of the newer members....................Keep it Up.
It sure does!
Good morning. We had .60in yesterday here in Destrehan, La. So for today .38
Quoting 140. 69Viking:

2" of rain yesterday in my area of NW Florida. Rains started again in the middle of the night, probably going to get more than 2" today so finally the totals they were predicting are starting to come true. Very wet and tropical in NW Florida, currently light rain, 79 degrees, humidity 88% with a dew point of 75!

Not to go all biblical here, but it's looking like a 40 day and night event in the NW Florida forecast. I feel bad for the tourists who booked their summer vacay on the Emerald Coast this and next week. Bring your umbrellas, folks, and I don't mean beach umbrella.
Quoting 144. BahaHurican:

when?


Link
We are watching an area of low pressure near the central Gulf Coast. This feature has produced very heavy rain across the Gulf Coast area, especially Florida, with upwards of 10 inches of rain falling since this weekend. This low pressure is inland. So, tropical development is not expected. However, it will remain a threat for very heavy rain as it gradually moves westward over the next few days.
We are tracking a few other waves across the Atlantic Basin. A tropical wave located near 55 degrees west will slide across the central Caribbean on Thursday. Shear will remain strong over this wave as it moves westward, limiting its chances for development.
Another tropical wave has moved offshore; however, it has weakened. Another stronger tropical wave will push off Africa in the next 24 hours. Initially, this wave will have an area of weak shear to work with. However, dry air and Saharan dust will likely hider its development. Regardless, this feature will bear watching as it heads across the Atlantic.
No tropical development is expected across the Atlantic Basin for at least the next 48 hours. (Accuweather)
Best part of the trip for me (after driving a big Budget Truck and moving furniture up 3 floors) was having two big Octoberfest Brews, and Maryland crab cakes, at some German place called Munich Haus in Chicopee on Tuesday night after the move-in was completed...........................(And the Lobster Roll sandwich from another place a day before).
Another busy week in the Atlantic and Caribbean.

Sitting next to someone who lives in the Usvi and has said it just doesn't rain like it used to when it used to.

Had a nice area of weather move into the NW Carib this morning and it just evaporated
#137, Merci pour cela, barbamz
Here is the current status in the global tropics, look from Africa, and current shear levels for the Atlantic: note the outstanding new product from CIMSS on shear levels with the color codes for favorable and unfavorable shear levels for tropical storm formation......Outstanding.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.ph p?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr& ;zoom=&time=





Does anyone know when the various models are forcasting the mojo(mjo) to be in the Atlantic/Carib?
Quoting 168. 19N81W:

Does anyone know when the various models are forcasting the mojo(mjo) to be in the Atlantic/Carib?


I've heard September.
Many thanks

As anticipated a hot and dry August which should be fairly regular daily rains obviously for the Caribbean
Quoting 169. Bucsboltsfan:



I've heard September.
All I want is a normal Atlantic hurricane season before I croak :P
Quoting 161. WXGulfBreeze:


Not to go all biblical here, but it's looking like a 40 day and night event in the NW Florida forecast. I feel bad for the tourists who booked their summer vacay on the Emerald Coast this and next week. Bring your umbrellas, folks, and I don't mean beach umbrella.

When I'm stuck with a day that's gray and lonely, I just stick up my chin and grin, oh
The sun will come out tomorrow, bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow there'll be sun...
Quoting 171. scott39:

All I want is a normal Atlantic hurricane season before I croak :P


I don't know how old you are but what we have been seeing since 1995 has been hyperactive. Not the normal. We are above normal so far this year. We very well may end up with a "normal" year compared to the long term average and yet it won't seem that way.
Quoting 122. Methurricanes:

With Predicted 90F Days Tomorrow and Friday in Rochester, NY that would make it the 9th most in history at 21, and the most since 1988 (28 years) with 1/2 of August and September to go. Not 1 day in the 10 day forecast is forecasted to be below average, no high OR Low.


DC maximum is 67 in 1980 and 2010. 34 so far.. we're not close this year. Normal is 36 for the season and we'll breach that on Saturday.
176. SRQfl
Things are drying out here in swfl. The past few days have been nice with highs in the 80s, overcast/ drizzle with occ. downpour and small surf. Now we brace for the unbearable afternoon scorchers ahead and flat Lake of Mexico. I can't wait for the next tropical airmass to be in our area(or winter)!
Quoting 173. Bucsboltsfan:



I don't know how old you are but what we have been seeing since 1995 has been hyperactive. Not the normal. We are above normal so far this year. We very well may end up with a "normal" year compared to the long term average and yet it won't seem that way.
From 1995 until 2008 the Atlantic had good looking well formed hurricanes. Since then, with the exception of a few, the seasons have been turning out hybrid garbage looking hurricanes. I would take quality of quantity any season.
Mite have a little of hope at the end of August.
Quoting 178. bigwes6844:

Mite have a little of hope at the end of August.

That chart paints a very active period for the Atlantic basin...If it happens.....September may make up for any quite August periods.
Quoting 168. 19N81W:

Does anyone know when the various models are forcasting the mojo(mjo) to be in the Atlantic/Carib?
2 + weeks... not before 25th August at this rate.... though I think I saw some tentative development forecasted after the 20th... IOW not soon.... :-/
Quoting 179. hydrus:

That chart paints a very active period for the Atlantic basin...If it happens.....September may make up for any quite August periods.

yep and I mentioned that to Gro on yesterday about this happening. Im pretty sure the MJO should make its way over soon.
Hmmmmmm!!!!
Quoting 179. hydrus:

That chart paints a very active period for the Atlantic basin...If it happens.....September may make up for any quite August periods.
Usually what happens... quiet Aug precedes active September and October....
But we shall see ....
Quoting 179. hydrus:

That chart paints a very active period for the Atlantic basin...If it happens.....September may make up for any quite August periods.

on top of that hydrus, seems like perfect timing for our Climatology part of the year. Cant wait to see this season is a bust people come alive when the Atlantic comes back alive. Enjoy the lull again folks. Because this time it may get seriously bumpy when the Atlantic wakes up!
What I do know is that any time after the 15th we can expect activity to pick up. It's climatology. I'll be surprised not to see a NS by 25th August ....

Dang... gotta go again... will check in later ...
Quoting 177. scott39:

From 1995 until 2008 the Atlantic had good looking well formed hurricanes. Since then, with the exception of a few, the seasons have been turning out hybrid garbage looking hurricanes. I would take quality of quantity any season.
I do realize many people have lost their lives to TC's since 2009, so I hope my quote wasn't seen as being insensitive.
Quoting 184. bigwes6844:


on top of that hydrus, seems like perfect timing for our Climatology part of the year. Cant wait to see this season is a bust people come alive when the Atlantic comes back alive. Enjoy the lull again folks. Because this time it may get seriously bumpy when the Atlantic wakes up!

If its a bust Wes, there will be no complaining on my end...I,ve seen enough...Most horrible sights i have ever seen were due to cyclones..
Quoting 187. hydrus:

If its a bust Wes, there will be no complaining on my end...I,ve seen enough...Most horrible sights i have ever seen were due to cyclones..

and super typhoons! But yea I think the Atlantic will catch up big time. We're at 5 storms I can easily see 5-7 storms between late August thru September. Good year I remember for that time frame would be 2004. We all knew what happen then
Quoting 173. Bucsboltsfan:



I don't know how old you are but what we have been seeing since 1995 has been hyperactive. Not the normal. We are above normal so far this year. We very well may end up with a "normal" year compared to the long term average and yet it won't seem that way.


Agreed. The period we're in now is more reminiscent of the mid 70s-early 80s (and even those years had the occasional active season and deadly storms), only then we didn't have a blog to moan about inactivity.
Quoting 153. CybrTeddy:



That can't be tropical in natural, can it?

I think it's subtropical in nature. If it is one of those rare storms, maybe tropical. And yes, it isn't frontal.
Quoting 188. bigwes6844:


and super typhoons! But yea I think the Atlantic will catch up big time. We're at 5 storms I can easily see 5-7 storms between late August thru September. Good year I remember for that time frame would be 2004. We all knew what happen then
Yep..Saw many lives changed forever including my own...The move to Tennessee was because of the hurricanes.....Many folks that managed to put a few things back in order after Charley had it ruined again by Jean...It was sad to see.
Given the current conditions in the Atlantic, with the MJO in the Pacific and the unfavorable short-term conditions due to the sinking air in the Atlantic, we should start to see an uptick in t-wave development just in time for the peak period starting in late-August and early September.


Peak Of Season

Atlantic hurricane season still expected to be strongest since 2012

Forecasters now expect 70-percent chance of 12–17 named storms
Quoting 151. hurcoloid:



Different thing between yesterday's rain and today is a little more wind associated with today's storms.


I registered 1.63 from 0700 yesterday - 0700 this morning. Had .73 from 0700-0800 this morning and now the gauge is showing over an inch (raining too hard to go out for more accurate reading). I belong to CoCoRHaS network(google it), a comprehensive weather reporting site for rain, hail and snow data. I highly encourage you all to check it out and become a part of the rain reporting network across the U.S. Cheers and stay dry!
NOAA:

12-17 named storms
5-8 hurricanes
2-4 major hurricanes

Meaning...

7-12 named storms
3-6 hurricanes
2-4 major hurricanes

...to go.
Baton Rouge expected to get 8"+ of rain over the next couple of days with nearly all of that falling in the next 36 hours. Forecast at this moment is over 6" tomorrow alone.

Quoting 191. hydrus:

Yep..Saw many lives changed forever including my own...The move to Tennessee was because of the hurricanes.....Many folks that managed to put a few things back in order after Charley had it ruined again by Jean...It was sad to see.

Trust me I can definitely understand that after Katrina hit us then Rita come sliding thru after were trying to recover. 2005 was such a horrible year for us New Orleanians. I definitely feel the pain.
Quoting 154. Bucsboltsfan:

Watched Jim Cantore talk about the tropics. He paints a bleak picture for development. Dry sinking air will prevail and get even worse over the next couple of weeks. All the energy should be in the West Pacific.
But people kept saying on this blog "Wait until August" and now it is August and the conditions are still grim in the Atlantic.....Reminds me of a certain year where we had to keep waiting for something to happen.Off for the day cheers.
Still waiting...
nhc is tired of watching the rain they dropped the yellow X watching the area 20n 48 west. no convection but the nhc mentioned it this morning
Quoting 55. ohzone:

Almost four months of North America's 2016 season has passed. Even given the proverbial Saharan late season activity in which waves shoot off Africa like stray bullets in Chicago, I feel pretty confident in closing the books on the Atlantic hurricane season this year. I also feel extremely confident human-induced climate change is the big factor. Two words: dry air and wind. Well, that's more than two words, but so then is all of this.


Get a grip...logically you should never close the books on any season in August, but it's especially stupid to do so prior to the climatology-based peak of the season.
Quoting 196. TropicalAnalystwx13:

NOAA:

12-17 named storms
5-8 hurricanes
2-4 major hurricanes

Meaning...

7-12 named storms
3-6 hurricanes
2-4 major hurricanes

...to go.


We would have to have one helluva active Sept/Oct to hit the high end of that forecast.
HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp 36m36 minutes ago
HurricaneTracker App Retweeted NHC Atlantic Ops
We expect this additional activity to begin near the end of the month and last through October. #tropics
Quoting 202. weatherwatcher80:



Get a grip...logically you should never close the books on any season in August, but it's especially stupid to do so prior to the climatology-based peak of the season.


I don't understand comments like this season is a bust or his comment closing the books. They are either trolling or don't have a clue. September is the busiest month and quite often October is very active. We could easily get 7 more storms with 2 majors hitting the US and/or Caribbean. Let's wait until late November before calling out a bust.
Quoting 204. bigwes6844:

HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp 36m36 minutes ago
HurricaneTracker App Retweeted NHC Atlantic Ops
We expect this additional activity to begin near the end of the month and last through October. #tropics
What a surprise!
Quoting 205. Bucsboltsfan:



I don't understand comments like this season is a bust or his comment closing the books. They are either trolling or don't have a clue. September is the busiest month and quite often October is very active. We could easily get 7 more storms with 2 majors hitting the US and/or Caribbean. Let's wait until late November before calling out a bust.


All it takes is one, just ask any of us that were in Miami on August 24th, 1992...
#202 and #203
Sorry, but I think you are being a bit hopeful. Hurricanes Wilma and Sandy were both mid-late October storms, so we've over 8 weeks to go before we even meet those dates. Wilma bellowed its way up the American seaboard, albeit some distance offshore which reduced the damage, and only fizzled out at the end of the month. Sandy started a bit earlier, caused major disruption after it made landfall, the effects extending to the end of the month and reaching up into Canada. We've a long way still to go before we reach November.
Quoting 199. washingtonian115:

But people kept saying on this blog "Wait until August" and now it is August and the conditions are still grim in the Atlantic.....Reminds me of a certain year where we had to keep waiting for something to happen.Off for the day cheers.

We had Earl just a week ago remember? We're at 5-2-0 above average for August the average first major doesn't even occur until early-mid
September. Patients is key just think to 2010 it was mid-August and people were calling the season a bust or doubting an above average season and we all know what happened.
Quoting 207. Dakster:



All it takes is one, just ask any of us that were in Miami on August 24th, 1992...


Very true.
Favorable MJO is forecast to move into Atlantic next week last week was showing the MJO arrive around the same time so there's consistency in the forecast. It's also forecast to stick around and stay at least netural around peak season.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
956 am CDT Thursday Aug 11 2016

Update...
only change this morning is the increase the quantitative precipitation forecast another 1-2 inches
from previous thinking to catch current trends and short-term expectations.
Flood threat is increasing in liklihood over a large portion of the County Warning Area
today.

Internally, have switched the klix radar to a tropical configuration to better
handle rainfall estimates. In warm rain processes, the conventional conversion
factors typically underestimate. By changing, it slightly overestimate in
places but should be closer to ground truth gages.

&&

Sounding discussion...
very moist sounding with a 2.68 inch precipitable water on a deep moist
adiabatic looking tropical sounding. Winds northwest 15 kt surface to about 13kft,
then east 10-20kt to 45kft, then strong NE winds 20-45kt near the tropopause.
Some of these higher winds will likely momentum down to the lower levels
during rainfall banding Akin to tropical cyclone spiral band processes. Main
threat will remain heavy rainfall, but some broad scale gustiness may occur
in places where rainfall banding is more organized.


Quoting 199. washingtonian115:

But people kept saying on this blog "Wait until August" and now it is August and the conditions are still grim in the Atlantic.....Reminds me of a certain year where we had to keep waiting for something to happen.Off for the day cheers.


Waiting till November when I can breathe easy about TC again until next May.
Quoting 55. ohzone:

Almost four months of North America's 2016 season has passed. Even given the proverbial Saharan late season activity in which waves shoot off Africa like stray bullets in Chicago, I feel pretty confident in closing the books on the Atlantic hurricane season this year. I also feel extremely confident human-induced climate change is the big factor. Two words: dry air and wind. Well, that's more than two words, but so then is all of this.




It's August 11, most of the season remains.

Analagous to declaring the snow season a bust December 15 because of a lack of snow to that time.

If you want two words remember Calvin Coolidge's reply in a press conference to someone who said

"I bet you have to reply in more than two words"


From President Coolidge

"You Lose"


Hot in DC Metro and mid Atlantic Thursday to ???????

Actually looks worse for humidity and Heat Index than sensible heat but overall about as miserable as two weekends ago in July because of higher dewpoints. I believe the record high minimum figures are breachable on one or more of the next four days. Taken from the NWS discussion for here.


Record High: Record High Minimum

For DCA:
Thursday August 11th: 101 in 1900: 80 in 2010
Friday August 12th: 99 in 1926: 78 in 2005
Saturday August 13th: 101 in 1881: 79 in 1995
Sunday: August 14th: 100 in 1943: 80 in 2002

For BWI:
Thursday August 11th: 100 in 1900: 82 in 1900
Friday August 12th: 99 in 1900: 78 in 1926
Saturday August 13th: 99 in 2002: 79 in 1872
Sunday August 14th: 99 in 1985: 77 in 1947

For IAD:
Thursday August 11th: 97 in 2010: 75 in 1988
Friday August 12th: 98 in 2002: 75 in 1988
Saturday August 13th: 98 in 2002: 76 in 1988
Sunday August 14th: 100 in 1985: 75 in 2002

&&
We are just waiting until we can breath period it's so hot and dry

Quoting 213. georgevandenberghe:



Waiting till November when I can breathe easy about TC again until next May.

Quoting 207. Dakster:



All it takes is one, just ask any of us that were in Miami on August 24th, 1992...


LOL, jusr read a Tweet from Dr. Knabb. I think he's been reading this blog. He posts, #itonlytakesone
The normal June-July-August lull period brings out all of the "bust comments" every year until the first of the series of typical Cape Verde storm clusters starts; it sometimes happens in late August but it certainly always starts by the first two weeks of September regardless of where these storms may end up (either fishes or headed towards the Caribbean or US); just give it about 2-5 weeks to start in earnest (patience).

We all know what it looks like when the Central Atlantic ITCZ lights up like a Christmas tree when Mother Nature throws the "switch"; I have seen the same thing happen season after season. Conditions might look marginal for a few days, in late-August or early September, and within 4 days, shear drops, a few strong waves get the ITCZ going, and some of the t-waves start to develop. Just not there yet but don't be fooled by the current desert look: typical look for this time.










Many in Texas will like the GFS model's forecast. It takes the persistent Gulf Coast Low and backs it into Texas over the next few days.
Quoting 218. Bucsboltsfan:



LOL, jusr read a Tweet from Dr. Knabb. I think he's been reading this blog. He posts, #itonlytakesone


That statement pretty much ends all discussions when it comes to Hurricane Seasons. One it's a very late date to have your first storm and also that Andrew was a CAT5 that changed many people's lives forever.

August 24th is also my birthday so I never forget the date of Andrew's landfall.
212. Patrap

Not a good setup...I hope this doesn't pan out.
Quoting 220. Sfloridacat5:

Many in Texas will like the GFS model's forecast. It takes the persistent Gulf Coast Low and backs it into Texas over the next few days.



At this time the heat/dryness here is sucking the life out of any cloud that even comes this way.
I could really use an overcast, dreary day.

Currently 92F, HI 110F and winds out of the north at 5.8 mph. Better than yesterday
Quoting 153. CybrTeddy:



That can't be tropical in nature, can it?


Don't believe him one bit

I knew it this is the same nuno who was banned permanently from Force-13 for falsely calling out storms and being a troll and spamming

He was calling out tropical and subtropical storms in the northern North Atlantic earlier this year they were the usual non tropical winter and spring storms obviously

Quoting 204. bigwes6844:

HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp 36m36 minutes ago
HurricaneTracker App Retweeted NHC Atlantic Ops
We expect this additional activity to begin near the end of the month and last through October. #tropics


Yeah I've could of told you that he'll even a monkey would know that lol



Anyway I'm sure you all know already but anyway

NHC has updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

And the numbers go up

12–17 named storms
5–8 hurricanes
2–4 major hurricanes

The initial outlook issued back in May had
10–16 named storms
4–8 hurricanes
1–4 major hurricanes
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 224. justmehouston:



At this time the heat/dryness here is sucking the life out of any cloud that even comes this way.
I could really use an overcast, dreary day.

Currently 92F, HI 110F and winds out of the north at 5.8 mph. Better than yesterday


Lucky you! You must be on the cool side of town!
#224 I sympathise. My friends in Austin are having it hot enough at the moment, although not as bad as where you are. But if you really want a grey, dreary day, come over to northern England, to the central Pennines: hasn't been above 60 F all day, we've got drizzle or rain and 8/8ths cloud cover, and no chance at all of seeing any Perseids tonight (none seen last night, either).
# 202 - apologies, I should have been replying to #55, not you! Didn't read the entry properly. D'oh ...
Quoting 222. hurricanehanna:

212. Patrap

Not a good setup...I hope this doesn't pan out.


The threat is a real one as my garage built in 1948 and is a lower grade than the properties adjacent it,so I've been moving items up in a ritual not done here in this home since k in 2005.

Going to the bonnabel boat launch to take some pics and get some video b roll too.

as of 3 pm humidex in Toronto is 106
thunderstorms forming sw of city may give brief relief
but only make it even more humid after rains done and sun rtns
Quoting 9. Astrometeor:

In the last 5 days, this particular CoCoRaHS rain gauge in Florida has received 12.69" of rainfall. Pretty impressive. Located on the water's edge in Bay County. Not sure if it's officially in Panama City or not. *shrug*

FL-BY-10




Thanks for the link. This gauge is within about a half mile of my house and I'm not surprised to see those totals. Most of this came in hour +/- bursts of really heavy rain with relatively quiet times between them. Thankful this low stayed on shore and that's all we got.

Quoting 230. Patrap:



The threat is a real one as my garage built in 1948 and is a lower grade than the properties adjacent it,so I've been moving items up in a ritual not done here in this home since k in 2005.




We are in a similar situation, in an old house with lots of newly built homes near, each with a higher elevation than the lot beside it. We sandbagged our carport that faces the elevation pitch, and thankful we did. At one point on the 9th we had water coming over the top of our sandbags. House stayed safe though, so they did what they needed to do. Stay dry.