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Mexican Bay of Campeche disturbance may become a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:12 PM GMT on October 06, 2008

A small but well-defined disturbance (96L) has moved off of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico (the Bay of Campeche). The low is moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph. Visible satellite loops show a small but concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms associated with the low. A surface circulation is not evident in satellite loops, or in this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Wind shear is low, in the 5-10 knot range.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the Bay of Campeche disturbance, 96L. Image credit: NOAA.

The system won't be over water long, but is sufficiently well-organized that is may be able to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Landfall should occur on the Mexican coast in the southwestern Bay of Campeche, near Veracruz, tonight or Tuesday morning. However, the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the HWRF model takes 96L northwestward, keeping it over water until Tuesday afternoon. This model run intensifies 96L into a 60 mph tropical storm before making landfall near Poza Rica late Tuesday afternoon. The topography of the southernmost Bay of Campeche often acts to spin up tropical systems, and I give this storm a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression, and a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm. NHC is currently giving 96L a medium (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression. Heavy rains of 3-6 inches can be expected in a small area near where 96L comes ashore.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A small closed circulation has developed in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 13N 30W, about 400 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, as seen on this morning's QuikSCAT pass. This disturbance is under about 30 knots of wind shear, which is too high for development to occur. Wind shear is expected to stay near 25-30 knots over the disturbance the next three days, which should keep it from developing. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (<20% chance) of developing.

There may be a better chance for development for a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa today. The GFS and UKMET models predict that this wave will spin up into a tropical depression by Thursday this week.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts
The need is still great for relief in the regions hard-hit by Hurricane Ike. Please consider donating to the relief effort started by wunderground members Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie. Contributions to this portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

Gilchrist after Hurricane Ike
Gilchrist after Hurricane Ike
Note the sandbag along the water in Gilchrist. These stretch intermittently along the gulf where the homes in Gilchrist survived. Even so, there are very few homes left in Gilchrist. The dunes are gone along HWY 87, and in many areas the water reaches the road.
Gilchrist after Hurricane Ike
Gilchrist after Hurricane Ike
Rollover Pass. Thankfully one lane is still able to handle traffic.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Have a nice Monday!
Thanks Dr. Masters
96L is now a tropical depression. (13)

AL, 13, 2008100612, , BEST, 0, 189N, 937W, 30, 1007
thanks dr masters
Quoting hurricane23:
96L is now a tropical depression. (13)

who said that
Thanks Doc. A new TD in the making.
Quoting hurricane23:
96L is now a tropical depression. (13)

AL, 13, 2008100612, , BEST, 0, 189N, 937W, 30, 1007


Yup.

hurricanemaniac can quit asking if it will become a TD and now ask if it will become Marco.
From the previous blog....

526. Orcasystems 9:17 AM CDT on October 06, 2008

Quoting Tazmanian:
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Who thinks 96L will become TD13 at 8am?


can you STOP asking Dumb ?s Please and this follow are commets and see what evere one is saying you are turning out too be one pine in the butt this is one thing why i have you up on my Ignore and i am all so thinking of asking the Admin of re moveing the Quote on for dr m blog or the Ignore or make the Quote to where you are not seeing or Quoteing some one that you may have on Ignore be come its not far too them or me too have too see some one that you may have on Ignor now i dont care if they ban me for this but you no what i wanted too say this for a long time so here i said it and am vary sorry if am being rude wish i think i am



A: No such thing as a dumb question
B: There is nothing wrong with the question asked
C: No one knows who has who on ignore, so people will get quoted who may be on your ignore list.. so get used to it
D: Stop and engage your mind before your fingers, then maybe we can understand what you typed.



But, he's asked the same question at least 30 times that I've seen.
Quoting btwntx08:

who said that


Up on FNMOC
td 13 has formed according to navy site
Quoting hurricane23:


Up on FNMOC

nevermine it has it on the navy site now
8. IKE 2:26 PM GMT on October 06, 2008

A-D are still valid, like I said the first time.
i see we now have TD 13 on the navy site
that means it will be a official td at 10am per nhc
8. IKE 7:26 AM PDT on October 06, 2008
From the previous blog....

526. Orcasystems 9:17 AM CDT on October 06, 2008

Quoting Tazmanian:
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Who thinks 96L will become TD13 at 8am?


can you STOP asking Dumb ?s Please and this follow are commets and see what evere one is saying you are turning out too be one pine in the butt this is one thing why i have you up on my Ignore and i am all so thinking of asking the Admin of re moveing the Quote on for dr m blog or the Ignore or make the Quote to where you are not seeing or Quoteing some one that you may have on Ignore be come its not far too them or me too have too see some one that you may have on Ignor now i dont care if they ban me for this but you no what i wanted too say this for a long time so here i said it and am vary sorry if am being rude wish i think i am



A: No such thing as a dumb question
B: There is nothing wrong with the question asked
C: No one knows who has who on ignore, so people will get quoted who may be on your ignore list.. so get used to it
D: Stop and engage your mind before your fingers, then maybe we can understand what you typed.



But, he's asked the same question at least 30 times that I've seen.


yes IKE i 2nd you on that
Couple of reposts from previous blog. My timing stinks. :)

Quoting PcolaDan:
Not hurricane related, but check out this video about a lightning strike. Took place in New York.

(Florida people should see this.)

Link


Quoting PcolaDan:


Quoting homelesswanderer:
I'm sorry to hear about your troubles with your insurance company. My parents still havent been able to get their adjuster to come look at their roof damage. A co-worker of my husbands lost everything to the storm surge. They had flood insurance but the insurance company told them it wasnt a flood. It was surge. They didnt cover salt water damage.For crying out loud! Unfortnately there are probably more stories like that. I'm sorry about your dads house. While we were lucky during Ike, during Rita our home went the same way his did. Hang in there. I hope everything works out for you.
I'm not really a fan of Government intervention, but this is getting out of hand I think. Someone needs to develop a standard for insurance definitions and terms that is binding across the country. This happens every hurricane now and it's getting old real fast.
17. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see we now have TD 13 on the navy site


Uh...oh....

ORDER UP! LOL!
18. IKE
Looks headed for TS Marco.
could this be the 13 name storm???


we have been haveing a good run in names this year so far
17. IKE 7:33 AM PDT on October 06, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see we now have TD 13 on the navy site


Uh...oh....

ORDER UP! LOL!


heh i take my crow now
21. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
17. IKE 7:33 AM PDT on October 06, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see we now have TD 13 on the navy site


Uh...oh....

ORDER UP! LOL!


heh i take my crow now


That's the spirit! Take it like a man!

Stocks down 440 points!

Worldwide economy meltdown.
newly formed td 13
8. IKE 2:26 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
But, he's asked the same question at least 30 times that I've seen.


I went over the last Blog.. he asked in different formats.. 5 times.

I might also point out.. he was right.. it did.
24. IKE
FIVE-HUNDRED DOWN!
25. IKE
NEAR 600 DOWN!

Can I get a link to the Navy site..I try through SJ's blog and it won't work.
Quoting IKE:
NEAR 600 DOWN!

Can I get a link to the Navy site..I try through SJ's blog and it won't work.


Link

I can't get the navy site up either
IKE - http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
28. IKE
Thanks ya'll.
td 13 now on nhc page
Just received a CBS alert that the DOW is having some "low" problems. DOW down 400 points.

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Good thing they hurried up and passed that bailout. That was the worst thing they could have done.
Tropics look faily quiet with the exception of the TD but that won't last long.
we now have tropical depression 13 on the NHC website
Quoting Orcasystems:


Link

I can't get the navy site up either

Unfortuneately they were not included in the bailout. It was either the Navy or the wooden arrow company.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
New Invest ... TD13
Present Satellite picture ... TD13
Quoting KendallHurricane:
we now have tropical depression 13 on the NHC website

i beat u to that
Ike -- normally don't take stock in stock -- theses numbers are going to kill my son's POLO season -- we depend on the Patron's to carry the $nut, It's like Hurricane Ike ravishing wallstreet
Quoting IKE:
NEAR 600 DOWN!

Can I get a link to the Navy site..I try through SJ's blog and it won't work.

Stop it...I'm getting chest pain !
Quoting IKE:

Can I get a link to the Navy site..I try through SJ's blog and it won't work.


Try this

Oh Good morning folks

And Orca - B-D true - I have asked enough dumb questions to know...
Navy site is down
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Just received a CBS alert that the DOW is having some "low" problems. DOW down 400 points.

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

acually near 600 points down
well it was down
42. IKE
Quoting MissNadia:

Stop it...I'm getting chest pain !


Same here....terrible situation. The economy is falling apart before our eyes...it's gonna get worse. Congress put a band-aid over it and there are others that will fail too. Then what?

Looks like TD13 has about 150 miles before it's final landfall.
Quoting IKE:
From the previous blog....

526. Orcasystems 9:17 AM CDT on October 06, 2008

Quoting Tazmanian:
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Who thinks 96L will become TD13 at 8am?


can you STOP asking Dumb ?s Please and this follow are commets and see what evere one is saying you are turning out too be one pine in the butt this is one thing why i have you up on my Ignore and i am all so thinking of asking the Admin of re moveing the Quote on for dr m blog or the Ignore or make the Quote to where you are not seeing or Quoteing some one that you may have on Ignore be come its not far too them or me too have too see some one that you may have on Ignor now i dont care if they ban me for this but you no what i wanted too say this for a long time so here i said it and am vary sorry if am being rude wish i think i am



A: No such thing as a dumb question
B: There is nothing wrong with the question asked
C: No one knows who has who on ignore, so people will get quoted who may be on your ignore list.. so get used to it
D: Stop and engage your mind before your fingers, then maybe we can understand what you typed.



But, he's asked the same question at least 30 times that I've seen.

Its a game. Don't play it.
Quoting auburn:
Navy site is down


No it is not... the fnmoc is, but not the www.nrlmry.navy.mil.
45. IKE
43..agree. Not sure about him and KeyWestMan...aka JFV.

NRL hasn't loaded for me all morning.
Between Hurricane Ike in the nature department, and the Economic Climate in the stock department........Everybody is getting smacked, and some with a double dose....
Quoting IKE:
43..agree. Not sure about him and KeyWestMan...aka JFV.


Yes Sir.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 061446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN
SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES...220 KM...EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHER MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...NORTHERN OAXACA...AND TABASCO.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...19.0 N...94.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
Quoting IKE:


Same here....terrible situation. The economy is falling apart
before our eyes...it's gonna get worse. Congress put a band-aid over it
and there are others that will fail too. Then what?

Looks like TD13 has about 150 miles before it's final landfall.

I'm going to the Keys and live in one of Surfmom's "crap shacks"
51. IKE
Looks like Marco on the way according to the advisory posted.
Until all the RED on the books is acknowledged, and consequences our actions are met -- we will continue this rollercoaster.... The Europeans are reeling today -- our problem is a world problem now, there are no more smoke and mirrors to hide behind -- Looks like a cat 3 financial storm --

HeyMissNadia LOL -- you and I know living in a crap shack is mighty fine... takes just an hour to tidy and then your sitting on a dock fishing w/ a cold beer -- got the feeling we are all going to be living much more simply.

When we got our chickens, I didn't realize the value of those eggs -- son and i have quite a barter system going presently --trading eggs for stonecrabs, french pastries, mackeral, smoked mullet, tomatoes.....initially I was trying to show him how to think outside of the green and yeah, how to work out of the system....looks like my pyrate idea is going to serve us well if the value of the green continues to evaporate.
Recon..POD

3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING INVESTIGATIVE MISSION
INTO AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL BE LAUNCHED TODAY ASAP. TEAL 70.
SURFACE TO 12,000 FT.
Hmm demon cloud after PR, its got horns and teeth.



Click to Enlarge
Quoting surfmom:
Until all the RED on the books is acknowledged, and consequences our actions are met -- we will continue this rollercoaster.... The Europeans are reeling today -- our problem is a world problem now, there are no more smoke and mirrors to hide behind -- Looks like a cat 3 financial storm --


Until the American people call out our reps. and media, nothing is going to happen. Like someone said the other day, we have the foxes guarding the henhouse. We the farmers, need to take care of the foxes.
Quoting Skyepony:
Recon..POD

3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING INVESTIGATIVE MISSION
INTO AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL BE LAUNCHED TODAY ASAP. TEAL 70.
SURFACE TO 12,000 FT.

well that area of disturbed weather is now td 13
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
New Invest ... TD13
Present Satellite picture ... TD13
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... Caribbean - BOC - Texas (Hour 36 - 144)
CMC ... BOC (Hour 156)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 216)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 240)

Hurricane IKE Pictures in Power Point Format ... From TropicTraveler (5MB)
Thank you for all the good info. I have already reopened my claim and will look into a "Public Adjuster". I also reported the adjuster to the insurance company as an unqualified carpetbagger who has no business representing the company.

My problems do not even come close to the issues some are having. I am willing to be patient while my insurance company deals with those who lost so much more. I have made temporary repairs and can wait. I just don't want to be hurried through the system and have my claim thrown out on the basis of a 10 minute "inspection".
Quoting surfmom:
HeyMissNadia LOL -- you and I know living in a crap shack is mighty
fine... takes just an hour to tidy and then your sitting on a dock
fishing w/ a cold beer -- got the feeling we are all going to be living
much more simply.

When we got our chickens, I didn't realize the
value of those eggs -- son and i have quite a barter system going
presently --trading eggs for stonecrabs, french pastries, mackeral,
smoked mullet, tomatoes.....initially I was trying to show him how to
think outside of the green and yeah, how to work out of the
system....looks like my pyrate idea is going to serve us well if the
value of the green continues to evaporate.

How do you get to be a "Pyrate" ?
Out again...don't know who is getting most of my money today...the stock market or the medical profession !
step one: Fly the Jolly Roger over the house, even if the neighbors have fits
step two: Participate & support valid organizations like portlight, that are by the people for the people
step three: look for opportunities to be self reliant and self supporting - avoid all big box stores as much as possible.
step four: QUESTION AUTHORITY
step five: have a boat, have rum and make sure to have lots of fun everyday

bbl
Thought this Quikstat tracking was interesting.

Not sure if it will show my location or if it will automatically adjust to yours. Someone let me know.

Comment modified - ahhh...
http://www.n2yo.com/passes/?s=25789
The 25789 has nothing to do with my location - that is the designated NORAD number for that satellite
need to watch the area south of jamaica prime location for this time of yr
67. JRRP
we have TD 13 and this blog still slow
JRRP - I guess there's just not much to say about it. At most, might become TS before landfall and will be short-lived for obvious reasons.

It is looking good, though, and I think it will be TS Marco by landfall.
area just east of fl seems like a prospect too not talking baseball!
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Thought this Quikstat tracking was interesting.

Not sure if it will show my location or if it will automatically adjust to yours. Someone let me know.

Comment modified - ahhh...
http://www.n2yo.com/passes/?s=25789
The 25789 has nothing to do with my location - that is the designated NORAD number for that satellite


Looks like the basis for location is IP address unless you log in and change it. Didn't know I moved to New Bern, NC though. :)
Quoting leftovers:
area just east of fl seems like a prospect too not talking baseball!


Way too much shear out there... Link
RE:70. PcolaDan

Thanks, Dan for letting me know
- From Pensicola to New Bern? Yikes
Hey All....Wow....Expected to "take a break" for a few weeks and TD 13 pops up this am.....Persistent looking little bugger (looks like a tropical mosquito system) ...Given how close it is to land, the time of year, and primary "rain" impact as it comes ashore, I hope it does not make TS status and skew the numbers for the season, but, it is what it is I suppose............
Quoting uptxcoast:
Thank you for all the good info. I have already reopened my claim and will look into a "Public Adjuster". I also reported the adjuster to the insurance company as an unqualified carpetbagger who has no business representing the company.

My problems do not even come close to the issues some are having. I am willing to be patient while my insurance company deals with those who lost so much more. I have made temporary repairs and can wait. I just don't want to be hurried through the system and have my claim thrown out on the basis of a 10 minute "inspection".


I have the name of a public adjuster that was trying to get my business from Ike. We decided to wait it out and see what we can do with the insurance adjuster (if he ever makes it to us! LOL!) Send me an email and I will send you the info from the card if you want it. Belinda
Orca WU Mail
Quoting Orcasystems:
Hurricane IKE Pictures in Power Point Format ... From TropicTraveler (5MB)
Orc a - thanks for putting these up, but I can't get them to open from the link. It's a shame, some of them are really interesting and different.
Orca~~ A Nor'Wester

Quoting TropicTraveler:
Orc a - thanks for putting these up, but I can't get them to open from the link. It's a shame, some of them are really interesting and different.


I just opened it..
You have comments in the last blog from people who opened it... Do you have Power Point on your computer?
Quoting Orcasystems:


I just opened it..
You have comments in the last blog from people who opened it... Do you have Power Point on your computer?

I get an "open with" powerpoint, it downloads and opens in powerpoint
Quoting Orcasystems:


I just opened it..
You have comments in the last blog from people who opened it... Do you have Power Point on your computer?
Yes - maybe I have to save it to powerpoint and then do it. I'll check the last blog. Thanks again for the help - I wanted to share these.
can someone give the future track for the system on the coast of africa please
Quoting Orcasystems:
Hmm demon cloud after PR, its got horns and teeth.



Click to Enlarge


I scanned the comments and surprised I did not see more discussion about this (sorry if I missed it... supposed to be 'working'!). It seems to be rotating so maybe it is sub or extra tropical? Regardless looks like someone (maybe us in S Fl) should be worried no? Any explanations about what will become of it will be appreciated!
Quoting dewdana:


I scanned the comments and surprised I did not see more discussion about this (sorry if I missed it... supposed to be 'working'!). It seems to be rotating so maybe it is sub or extra tropical? Regardless looks like someone (maybe us in S Fl) should be worried no? Any explanations about what will become of it will be appreciated!


Its been moving across for a few days now, out there in the middle of no where... the comment was just about the actual look of it.. it looks like some kind of monster. If you look close.. mouth and teeth to the lower left.. horns to the upper right. I figured it would give Zoo a chuckle.
Howdies from rainy Palm Coast!
Quoting Dar9598:
can someone give the future track for the system on the coast of africa please

westward
Quoting Dar9598:
can someone give the future track for the system on the coast of africa please


I am a beginner, but the only models I can pull up need at least an invest number.
For instance on the Navy Site in the left hand column, you will see that only TD13 is listed for the Atlantic
I think right now it is just a blob.

Someone else will probably have a better answer for you.

Modified - See above two posts ;)
Got to keep it to the weather but on economic front I've been joking with friends about keeping Hurricane supply "canned goods" in stock around the house "year round" just in case things get really bad......Lol
89. JRRP
Quoting Dar9598:
can someone give the future track for the system on the coast of africa please

may be will move W until it reach 35w, then will move WNW and then NW
is there any doomsdayers blog opened on wu? sure alot of 6.0 earthquakes past few hrs in china, afgan, new zealand, and eastern russia. doomsdayer blog would be fun
one last things leftovers has noticed that 13 will be Marco very soon.
Quoting leftovers:
is there any doomsdayers blog opened on wu? sure alot of 6.0 earthquakes past few hrs in china, afgan, new zealand, and eastern russia. doomsdayer blog would be fun
that would be a differnt blog altogether, not tropical weather so to speak. It has been a very busy earthquake day indeed.
90. leftovers
I watch earthquakes and volcanoes as well - though I do keep the watching close to home (I will leave global watching to someone wiser and smarter than I am)



I know volcanoes have an effect on weather
Do earthquakes have an effect on weather ? (other than tsunamis)
Quoting JRRP:

may be will move W until it reach 35w, then will move WNW and then NW
Quoting Dar9598:
can someone give the future track for the system on the coast of africa please


Out to sea.
thanks guys the more westerly track and steady strenghtening seems to be affect in the next 3 to 5 days or not by a subtropical ridge!however.
Just time to peek in, not much time to read, however I/we don't need any more "chuckles" around here, finally no rain today, thank you.
33 - JupiterFl
"It was either the Navy or the wooden arrow company"
Fast, funny, sarcastic, and philosophical!
One-liners just don't get any better than that!
ROFLMAO
98. JRRP
The gfs shows that the African system will not pass the 40w.
Link
87. KEHCharleston 12:21 PM EDT on October 06, 2008
Quoting Dar9598:
can someone give the future track for the system on the coast of africa please


I am a beginner, but the only models I can pull up need at least an invest number.
For instance on the Navy Site in the left hand column, you will see that only TD13 is listed for the Atlantic
I think right now it is just a blob.

Someone else will probably have a better answer for you.

Modified - See above two posts ;)


Hello, go to my blog..and i have a link for models in the middle of the blog.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its been moving across for a few days now, out there in the middle of no where... the comment was just about the actual look of it.. it looks like some kind of monster. If you look close.. mouth and teeth to the lower left.. horns to the upper right. I figured it would give Zoo a chuckle.


It looks like the Quikscat this morning has some possible circulation on the east side. It is starting to look better orginized
Quoting JRRP:
The gfs shows that the African system will not pass the 40w.
Link


Had it past in the 06Z run... Link

And if it goes beyond that time-frame, don't know where it is headed. Both runs show a E-W ridge over the entire atlantic.
102. JRRP
We will have to wait and see
Even that could become possible a "FOUR LETTERS NAMES" C.V storms: NANA.
It's said that a "FOUR LETTER NAME" storm forming in the coast of africa could become a legendary rare and powerful cyclone such as : CLEO,INEZ,HUGO,LUIS,IVAN,KARL AND DEAN
whatever it's earlier westward to northwest track it's bear watching closely,more it will take more time to develop more it will move westward.
i asked a week ago no one could remember a storm that developed near the cvs after sept 15 that affected the conus.
Quoting fireflymom:
that would be a differnt blog altogether, not tropical weather so to speak. It has been a very busy earthquake day indeed.


Also quoting Leftovers

Where did you find the earthquake info? I would like to read it....
RE:99. TampaSpin

I always read your blog. I must confess I had started just skipping to the "In Simple Terms" narrative and skipped right over the long range GFS.
When I run it - my CPU system here goes down to 10% free (Yikes!)
I was thinking I would need to get some real computing power to keep up with this, however, it seems once the GFS fully loads, my CPU goes back up to a whopping 25-30% free.

Quoting Dar9598:
Even that could become possible a "FOUR LETTERS NAMES" C.V storms: NANA.
It's said that a "FOUR LETTER NAME" storm forming in the coast of africa could become a legendary rare and powerful cyclone such as : CLEO,INEZ,HUGO,LUIS,IVAN,KARL AND DEAN
whatever it's earlier westward to northwest track it's bear watching closely,more it will take more time to develop more it will move westward.


WOW!
104. JRRP

Is that wave heights?

I think so, and if so, surfmom's not going to be happy with that.
Hurricane Nana makes me VERY afraid...we have one that lives right down the street and she's a pretty bad storm...

Leftovers,We have Inez in 1966 and Georges 10 years ago as a strong cat 4 hurricane forming after the sept 15 southwest the c.v islands.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
New Invest ... TD13
Present Satellite picture ... TD13
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... Caribbean - BOC - Texas (Hour 36 - 144)
CMC ... BOC (Hour 156)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 216)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 240)
CMC 00Z..
Hurricane IKE Pictures in Power Point Format ... From TropicTraveler (5MB)
Quoting melwerle:
Hurricane Nana makes me VERY afraid...we have one that lives right down the street and she's a pretty bad storm...



LOL!! We have one too!
We think we this one would be "the insult hurricane"...blow in, whosh by, call everyone "fat" and blow out...

Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


Also quoting Leftovers

Where did you find the earthquake info? I would like to read it....

Here's a link to the USGS Earthquake Hazard Program listing earthquakes for the last 7 days.Link
GREYELF:

THANK YOU :)
Almost 80F out, guess I will leave the A/C on for the cat - I am off to work (another 4 letter word)

Tamp, StormW, thank you for your weather updates. Much appreciated.
118. KEHCharleston 1:14 PM EDT on October 06, 2008
Almost 80F out, guess I will leave the A/C on for the cat - I am off to work (another 4 letter word)

Tamp, StormW, thank you for your weather updates. Much appreciated.


Your always welcome....thank you!
sorry i dont know how to use the links here on wu you can get on their email alerts (earqk) also for volcano info Dr. Klemitte page is awesome
RE:121. leftovers
Quickly before I leave - someone just shared this site with me.

Also if you use firefox there is an add-on that will "shake" your view on the monitor whenever there is an earthquake. Fun way to be notified.

Late... I am out of here.


Oh,,, and ORCA - thanks for your updates too. :)
Hey Folks.
Tropical Ramsdis sporting the west wind.
I see we have Tropical Depression Thirteen. I think it's time for a new blog, myself.

I expect that it could become at least a 50 mph tropical storm, and possibly stronger than that, because it's a very small and well-defined circulation, and will be able to spin up quickly. Also, as was already noted, the topography of this region of the BoC aids in tropical cyclone formation and intensification. Take Lorenzo of 2007 as an example.
Wow, funny how the EAST Pacific has been very quit until now and its got things popping! MJO is amazing what it does.
Good afternoon fellow Wunderground bloggers! Just got home from classes. Been doing great in all my classes and continue to do so.

Now, turning my attention towards Tropical Depression 13. This is the smallest tropical cyclone that I've ever seen in my entire life. It appears Miami-Dade and Broward counties combined may be larger than this cyclone. Just incredible to see how storms vary in size.

Based upon my early, quick analysis, I don't see much preventing it from strengthening into Tropical Storm Marco before the day ends. Very impressive for such a small system that spent about 30 hours over the Yucatan.
Quoting melwerle:
Hurricane Nana makes me VERY afraid...we have one that lives right down the street and she's a pretty bad storm...



I have an aunt named laura who calls herself nana to all the kids in our family. She said laura was going to be strong and it was a joke now she is saying that nana is going to be big and hit us. So Nana worries me oh and the storm that gets that name will to.
I come home and we have TD13... interesting.

As long as it doesn't do a Lorenzo. :)
Quoting Cotillion:
I come home and we have TD13... interesting.

As long as it doesn't do a Lorenzo. :)


With the topography like it is in this region, it's a distinct possibility.
131. JRRP
TD13 small but dangerous
very tight small storm but with a distinct core to it

Quoting Bonedog:
very tight small storm but with a distinct core to it



'I shall call him Squishy and he shall be mine and he shall be my Squishy. Come on, Squishy Come on, little Squishy.'

'Bad Squishy!'
waveheights === ah well NO SWELL == just waiting on those cold fronts --after IKE anything in the belly of the gomex give me the creeps. I'll take a cold front w/wetsuit please -- much safer for all LOL

Off to get young buck from school. Lovely rainshower w/ a dash of thunder -- I'm enjoying!!

later : )
bye surfmom
TD 13/Marco won't be no problem to Veracruz Mexico,a tropical storm 45-60 mph winds,let's hope no death will be occur there.
It's reminber me the four small names 2005 storms such as Bret Gert and José.
137. Mikla
I have seen several posts requesting track/model info. I am working on a site (experimental at this time) that can plot any/all the models the NOAA has for storms they track.

There are still several bugs, including the code that updates the track information (there is a custom program that runs on my home server that generates a JS file from the NOAA data when there are changes). So the data may not be up to date. Also, I freeze the data from time to time as I make changes/updates.

The sites main purpose is to create a customized weighted average track based on the weighted models that are included... but it can simply display the model data if that is all you are after (so ignore most of the text boxes and just use the three check boxes on the left for each model).

Below the map is where you select the cyclone you want to view and formatting options for the weighted average track. Just turn off the icons and track if you want to see just the model data.

If a model is not available for a cyclone, it will be grayed out. Click "Hide Inactive" if you do not wish to see these models.

BEWARE - The site is JavaScript intensive and can drag a computer to it's knees if you select several models. The JavaScript file that holds the model data can be up to 600k in size. I found that Firefox to be the fastest at displaying the data... IE is slowwwww. The good thing is that once it is all loaded, you don't have to refresh the page to look at different cyclones or models.

Anyway... here it is link .

Again, the site may not always be up to date (if the backend program crashes)... and I will be out of town for the next few days, so I won't know if there is a problem. Also, I am not sure what will happen when there are several hits to the page at the same time...

If you do want to play with the weights or "Nudge"... feel free. Just put a different number in the various text boxes for weights (they all default to 1 when you load the page) or ditto for the nudge (defaults to 0). Weighting influences the the average track and nudge outright moves the location of a weighted data point.

There is a lot more to come... if the season doesn't end first... then I will on to something else...

Hopefully, I have not violated any rules of the blog... just trying to provide info...
wow cant believe the list of 4 letter storm names actually retired

Ione
Cleo
Dora
Inez
Edna
Fifi
Joan
Hugo
Luis
Opal
Fran
Iris
Lili
Juan
Ivan
Rita
Stan
Dean
Noel

list comprised from 1954 till 2007
Link
A little Fay action on longrange around okeechobie... just moving SW iso NW. I see an eye popping out. ;)

Link
Sooooooooooo I take the weekend off and
Ike has a Pine up his bottom, Surfmom is teaching all the solution to the GreatER Depression looming while also turning into fools gold (you typed pyrite not Pirate lol that is what Nada was teasing you about),
Mexico giveth an Invest and recieveth a TS, A slestack or dragon (depending on which section you make the head is about to munch on PR, AND the Navy was traded for a bag of magic wallstreet beans by congress when instead of the bailout we all could have been given $425,000 and forclosures, unemployment, spending and wallstreet would have been recovered easily.

Did I miss anything? Oh and just to be fair my week, Monday Supervisor threatened, Tuesday someone caught forging paperwork for foodstamps and Wed Worker found a bag of crack in the hallway... Yeah the world is coming to an end!
Hmm, totally off-topic...

But just looked at one of the old Youtube updates for 'canes, don't think they did them this year. This one for Felix.

Link

Lovely example when models don't match up on intensity. GFDL had it in 24 hours as a strong Cat 2 (Even if it was Cat 5 at the time...) at 105mph. In the same timeframe, the SHIPS inflated it to a 195mph storm, breaking the sustained wind speed record.

Possible second circulation out at about 9N/35W

Quoting HurricaneKing:


I have an aunt named laura who calls herself nana to all the kids in our family. She said laura was going to be strong and it was a joke now she is saying that nana is going to be big and hit us. So Nana worries me oh and the storm that gets that name will to.


And I've a cat called Norbert...

This has to be the smallest storm that I have ever seen:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
nice cdo with td 13
To the Mom - Had to laugh at your post. I think we could have a "my week was worst contest on here."
Mine would say - working 7 day/12 hours a day, someone put needles in my chair seat cushion, piercing a part of my anatomy I'm quite fond of, Semi truck tire blew up right beside my rental car, broke the windshield and scared me by making me think a bomb went off, and sciatica went crazy so I'm limping like an old crone. But hey, life is wonderful, I helped two people get some housing today, and I like what I do. I guess it's all a matter of perspective. Oh and it's tropics related because I'm working on hurricane Ike relief effort.
SEASTEP you beat me to it. yes there ia a surface low near 10n 36w moving west at 15mph. there is both low level convergence and upper level divergence in the area. wind shear is 10-15 knots. the area will watched closely for any signs of development lastest QS did show the surface low
another thing I noticed from that link..
*5 years seem to have the most retired names and 14 out of 54 years had no retired names
Marco a Italian name while Nana,a French/German/Japanese name
Dar the list was retired storm names not all 4 letter storms :)
oops my bad I just rechecked my appologies :(
Bonedog, you forget a legendary cat 4 storm "LUIS" in 1995 and most of them were Cape Verde storm too.
Dar I added it to the list ;)
Quoting TropicTraveler:
To the Mom - Had to laugh at your post. I think we could have a "my week was worst contest on here."
Mine would say - working 7 day/12 hours a day, someone put needles in my chair seat cushion, piercing a part of my anatomy I'm quite fond of, Semi truck tire blew up right beside my rental car, broke the windshield and scared me by making me think a bomb went off, and sciatica went crazy so I'm limping like an old crone. But hey, life is wonderful, I helped two people get some housing today, and I like what I do. I guess it's all a matter of perspective. Oh and it's tropics related because I'm working on hurricane Ike relief effort.
You win just withthe truck tire blow out big trucks scare me! Keep up the great work! And for sciatic nerve damage and disk degeneration I get prolotherapy check it out it helps!
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
12:00 PM UTC October 6 2008

==========================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather (1006 hPa) located at 12.6S 75.3E has 10 minutes sustained winds of 20 knots and is reported as moving southwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
Near gale-force winds and rough seas in the southern semi-circle.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.6S 73.4E - 25 knots (Perturbance Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.9S 71.6E - 25 knots (Perturbance Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Strongest winds are localized in the southern semi-circle and mainly in the southeastern quadrant due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Tomorrow, a trough is expected to shift in the south of this low stopping the poleweard trade wihds inflow, system will also probably weaken. MSLP is higher than usual.

At this stage of intensity, regular tropical cyclone warning are not issued.

Next tropical cyclone warning is at 0:00 AM 06OCT
To the Mom - will check it out. Will check out ANYTHING that will help. Actually doing physical therapy and it is getting better.
Man this thing is ridiculously small...Looks like like a south florida day time thunderstorm.
if this gets named would it be the smallest cyclone ever on record?

still looking it up but haven't found anything yet
Latest QS of the area 11n 36w showing a surface low which is looking better with each successive sat pics


Link
Quoting Bonedog:
if this gets named would it be the smallest cyclone ever on record?

still looking it up but haven't found anything yet
Mini-cane Get in my Belly!
Recon AF 303 is enroute...
well I found out Tracy is the smallest with 30mi wind field so TD13 would have to be smaller then that.

And Tracy was a CAT4 storm but recent evidence points to a CAT5 at landfall
Quoting stoormfury:
Latest QS of the area 11n 36w showing a surface low which is looking better with each successive sat pics


Link


Very well-organized surface circulation there based upon QuikSCAT. When I update the graphic on my website later on, I will make sure to highlight this feature.
MARCO: ITALIAN NAME.
NANA: FRENCH,GREEK,JAPANESE NAME.
stoormfury - got me that time... didn't look at the descending pass. :)
Quoting Skyepony:
Recon AF 303 is enroute...


It should only take the plane about 5 minutes to traverse this storm.

Quoting hurricane23:
Man this thing is ridiculously small...Looks like like a south florida day time thunderstorm.


We've had larger thunderstorms than this over South Florida. Just incredible how small this storm is, but how fierce its circulation is. This hurricane season continues to amaze and baffle.
Can't recall, but wasn't Andrew quite small (not that small, but...) and only a cat1 and then RI'ed into a cat5 overnight?
seastep that's ok we are one family on this blog
Quoting Bonedog:
well I found out Tracy is the smallest with 30mi wind field so TD13 would have to be smaller then that.

And Tracy was a CAT4 storm but recent evidence points to a CAT5 at landfall
Very cool triva Bone you always rock us out with the cool trivia. Guessing they can spin pretty fast when so tiny so you all think this one might make 1 instead of TS ?
Unbelievable how many 4 letters name storms retired and most of them where legendary.
Quoting Bonedog:
well I found out Tracy is the smallest with 30mi wind field so TD13 would have to be smaller then that.

And Tracy was a CAT4 storm but recent evidence points to a CAT5 at landfall


I have seen tropical storms with wind fields as small as Tracy before; the difference is that Tracy was a fully developed major hurricane (as you said possibly a Cat 5). Usually, stronger storms are larger and only weak tropical storms normally get that small.
dont know yet Mom. It is close to land which my inhibit it. But I will say nothing surprises me anymore with Tropical systems
Quoting Dar9598:
Marco a Italian name while Nana,a French/German/Japanese name


nhc should name this "minni" rather than marco
Bonedog.....Re: post # 138....now THAT is exactly the kind of trivia I just love.......
no problem presslord. I like weather trivia as well :)
Quoting voortex:


nhc should name this "minni" rather than marco


Or, only changing one letter... "micro"
Well, just 'cause it's a little mini'cane doesn't mean it can't cause trouble......I speak from personal experience.

TheMom - "get in my belly" ROTFL

I must have Ike PostTraumaStressDisorder...'cause anything in the belly of the gulf makes me more anxious then excited for waves. Where's the shear???
Quoting Bonedog:
dont know yet Mom. It is close to land which my inhibit it. But I will say nothing surprises me anymore with Tropical systems
I thought we agreed that first cold front came down and now we were supposed to be done... :-( You guys are supposed to be paying homage to the snowgod (kidlet) to get your blizzards lol

It is almost hard to rememebr that we actually had some nice Fall pleasent weather last week since it is back to the normal humid and hot with smatterings of rain. :*-(
I think there are some four letter words that describe some of these canes better then Names
OK, researched a little on Andrew.

Andrew was obviously different in many ways, but now I am more intrigued by TD13. Andrew went from 1007mb TS (TD13 pres. right now) to a Cat5 in exactly 48 hours.

And, if I recall, it was quite small (again, not as tiny as this, I don't think) and that was a factor in the RI, no?

I am now very interested to see the recon... keeps looking better and better on sat.
Quoting surfmom:
BR>TheMom - "get in my belly" ROTFL
I was havign an Austin Powers flashback while typeing lol
179. surfmom 2:59 PM EDT on October 06, 2008
I think there are some four letter words that describe some of these canes better then Names


I belive that was George Carlins 7 words you can't say LOL
Quoting Bonedog:
179. surfmom 2:59 PM EDT on October 06, 2008
I think there are some four letter words that describe some of these canes better then Names


I belive that was George Carlins 7 words you can't say LOL
There are actualy 13 but the other 6 he couldn't even say on stage.... Loves GC he will be missed!
thankfully for eastern mex does seems to be some shear pushing the high altitude clouds from the td south.
thanks for the update Mom didnt relize it was 13. But pretty sure tthose 13 describe the storm better then their NHC gien name LOL
this thing is soooooooooooo tiny
The depression looks cute! But I am glad it doesn't have much time over water.
Quoting Bonedog:
thanks for the update Mom didnt relize it was 13. But pretty sure tthose 13 describe the storm better then their NHC gien name LOL
True true true!
leftovers actually very little shear over the system

Link
and looks to be droping as well

Link
How many ways can we describe how small TD13 is?

Tenney, sooooooooooooooooooooTiny, Mini, Minni, micro, intsey, wintsey, smoosh, model size, objects in this sattelite are not smaller than they appear, *under latest image* Actual Size
look at the visiable loop you'll see the powder white clouds moving south from the center
Well, I guess we'll find out if size really does matter or not. ;)
I am actually quite surprised by the new depression, I was sure land interaction would hold it down. Just goes to show.
Arthur earlier this year was very tiny too.
Quoting Seastep:
Well, I guess we'll find out if size really does matter or not. ;)
Brilliant! But I don't think anyone in it's path is gonna be faking it I would think with something this compact it will be a tornado maker or tear things up like a tornado?
TD13 is very small, but well-organized. In fact, CIMSS ADT rates the system as a 35kt TS now, with a raw t-number of about 3.0.
Quoting leftovers:
look at the visiable loop you'll see the powder white clouds moving south from the center


Wind shear according to CIMSS is out of the west and is about 5-10kts.
well recon is enroute so when they get there they better not blink because they might miss it :)

will be surprised to start getting the recon info and see where we are really at with this system.
I think the south blowing winds are actually outflow from the storm
ARTHUR compared against 13
appears arthur was split in half by land but TD13 is completly over water. Have to see what that means for this little sucker
Quoting leftovers:
look at the visiable loop you'll see the powder white clouds moving south from the center


Those powder white clouds are cumulus clouds (meaning low-level clouds) moving around the surface circulation. This means that the circulation is very strong. There is very little shear over the system.
thanks for the reply folks looks like td13 is a candidate for development
Storms that make landfall in the SW BoC tend to spin up rather quickly...NHC intensity forecast is probably about right.
mabye we will see a 50-60 MPH TS from this thing
Hey Folks! Just a quick question as i appreciate all of your views/opinions. I am travelling to Puerto Vallarta on October 11-October 17 and was wondering if TD 13 will pose a threat to me? I surely hope not as I have been looking forward to this for months! Oh and I would also like to say how impressed i am with everyones support to the Ike Victims. Thank you for four responses.
Va this system will be on land by this time tomorrow. So by this weekend you should be OK as nothing down the pipe is hinting at the BOC area
VaBeachSurfer - Doubt it would affect other than maybe a rainy day or two... that's on the west coast. Too much land for a tiny storm to get over and then there are also the mountains.
Its a cute little cyclone. Can i have one as a pet mommy?
Great! I hope the weather stays fantastic for us there! Keep up the good work people
Hmm, perhaps to add to the semantic field of Wunderground...

Td13/Marco is the 'Nadocane. Not going to hit a very wide area at all, but potentially deadly to where it does hit. Remember, let's not write it off because it's not a major hurricane. Stan was a minimal hurricane and that wreaked havoc in this area.

And small systems have a tendency to spin up quickly. Hopefully, it won't account to much more than a bit of rain.

And if it was 'Nana' instead of 'Marco', Nanoscopic would be a fun word to use...
hey, why im on here, maybe you guys can help me with another question. What are the ebaches like in the BOC. Any waves? rough surf? Sharks? haha
Now we have TD 13(soon to be Marco). What about that disturbance in the atlantic?
Japan Meteorological Agency

WWJP25 Tropical Weather Summary (1200z 06OCT)
==============================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER HIGOS (T0817)
23.0ºN 117.0ºE - 25 knots 1010 hPa

reported as moving east-southeast at 10 knots
Quoting VaBeachSurfer:
Great! I hope the weather stays fantastic for us there! Keep up the good work people


Watch the E Pacific, though.... but most of that has continued westward, so should not be an issue.

Keep an eye on Norbert and more so Invest 92.

Puerto Vallarta is a great place... honeymooned there.
TD 13 is really small probably one of if not the smallest tropical cyclone ever.
Link

First one to even attempt to factually link solar maelstroms and hurricane tendencies on Earth gets a cookie.

(Well, we've tried sun spots, right? And, this article even has the word hurricane in it...)
All of the models forecast for development south of the CV islands mid to late this week.
Quoting VaBeachSurfer:
hey, why im on here, maybe you guys can help me with another question. What are the ebaches like in the BOC. Any waves? rough surf? Sharks? haha


Puerto Vallarta's on the W coast of Mexico... not BOC. ;)
VA...

Distinctly different beach zones with more than forty individual beaches mark Puerto Vallarta as one of the favorite destinations for the true beach lover. The first zone is north of Puerto Vallarta. Playa de Oro and the Marina district are here. The Playa de Oro is a wide, sandy beach with a few rocky areas interspersed. It is also very popular with guests and locals alike, because of its water sports. Even further north, the beaches of Banderas Bay are pristine and quiet as they reach up toward Punta de Mita. If you're into surfing, these northern beaches, which are subject to strong surf, perfect for catching a wave, the best windsurfing also takes place in this area.

great link for you VA

Link
Quoting Michfan:
Its a cute little cyclone. Can i have one as a pet mommy?


lol. I'd keep one as pet.
VA as far as sharks go....

Banderas Bay abounds with sea life, and has the unusual distinction of being a nearly shark free bay. Seldom have sharks been sighted. Sharks lingering into the bay are often attacked by a group of dolphins, and battered to death. Dolphins can weigh up to 500 pounds and swim at speeds over 45 m.p.h. They are one of the few creatures that, in a small group, can easily overcome sharks by ramming them broadside. Many dolphins inhabit the bay, and to protect their colony, these dolphins mount a patrol at the bay's entrance, not allowing the sharks to enter.
Don't worry, dolphins are friendly to us!


Link
Quoting Michfan:
Its a cute little cyclone. Can i have one as a pet mommy?


Already proclaimed it as my squishie on the previous page.

Apologies. ;)


This is the smallest ever recorded.
Quoting Michfan:
Its a cute little cyclone. Can i have one as a pet mommy?


I definetely want one. It looks so cute!
Quoting Vortex95:


This is the smallest ever recorded.


Does it have a name?
Quoting Vortex95:


This is the smallest ever recorded.


Cyclone Tracy... gale force winds only extending 30 miles from the centre.

In contrast, Typhoon Tip had a diameter of 1,380 miles. Quite the couple.

And referring to my previous link... 'Hurricane-sized whirlpools...'

Uhm, because hurricanes *clearly* are of an uniform size?
cotillion wheres my cookie?

United States and Caribbean tropical cyclone activity related to the solar cycle

J. B. Elsner

Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA




T. H. Jagger

Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA




Abstract
The authors report on a finding that annual U.S hurricane counts are significantly related to solar activity. The relationship results from fewer intense tropical cyclones over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico when sunspot numbers are high. The finding is in accord with the heat-engine theory of hurricanes that predicts a reduction in the maximum potential intensity with a warming in the layer near the top of the hurricane. An active sun warms the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere through ozone absorption of additional ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Since the dissipation of the hurricane's energy occurs through ocean mixing and atmospheric transport, tropical cyclones can act to amplify the effect of relatively small changes in the sun's output thereby appreciably altering the climate. Results have implications for life and property throughout the Caribbean, Mexico, and portions of the United States.

Received 22 April 2008; accepted 13 August 2008; published 19 September 2008.

Keywords: hurricanes; solar activity; climate.

Index Terms: 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1650 Global Change: Solar variability (7537); 1739 History of Geophysics: Solar/planetary relationships.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Link
Cylone Tracy I believe it was 70 miles in diameter.
TD 13 maybe have an even smaller wind field that Tracy.
Quoting Bonedog:
VA as far as sharks go....

Banderas Bay abounds with sea life, and has the unusual distinction of being a nearly shark free bay. Seldom have sharks been sighted. Sharks lingering into the bay are often attacked by a group of dolphins, and battered to death. Dolphins can weigh up to 500 pounds and swim at speeds over 45 m.p.h. They are one of the few creatures that, in a small group, can easily overcome sharks by ramming them broadside. Many dolphins inhabit the bay, and to protect their colony, these dolphins mount a patrol at the bay's entrance, not allowing the sharks to enter.
Don't worry, dolphins are friendly to us!
It is illegal to attempt to interact with wild dolphins and they are very rough players just like you said they can take out some big sharks. My son was bitten by a dolphin at Seaworld which is actually a good thing as far as the dolphin is concerned they bite as part of thier socialization. the scrapes you see on dolphins are from this biteing play. Their teeth are cone shaped so they do not pierce but my son said it was like slaming your hand in a door and not being able to get it out. He still has a little mark on his thumb from it and wears it as a proud badge of honor that a dolphin liked him enough to bite him (of course he didn't think that way when it first happened.
I dunno Drak maybe it doesn't have anything on Tracy strength wise, tracy was the most destructive cyclone in Austrailias history.
Quoting Vortex95:
I dunno Drak maybe it doesn't have anything on Tracy strength wise, tracy was the most destructive cyclone in Austrailias history.


Link

-whistles?-
Didn't know that lol.


appears to be a southern hemi storm. clockwise
yup on the last page I posted about Tracy

officially CAT 4 but recent evidence has lead to CAT 5 strength conclusions
Quoting Bonedog:
cotillion wheres my cookie?

United States and Caribbean tropical cyclone activity related to the solar cycle

J. B. Elsner

Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA




T. H. Jagger

Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA




Abstract
The authors report on a finding that annual U.S hurricane counts are significantly related to solar activity. The relationship results from fewer intense tropical cyclones over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico when sunspot numbers are high. The finding is in accord with the heat-engine theory of hurricanes that predicts a reduction in the maximum potential intensity with a warming in the layer near the top of the hurricane. An active sun warms the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere through ozone absorption of additional ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Since the dissipation of the hurricane's energy occurs through ocean mixing and atmospheric transport, tropical cyclones can act to amplify the effect of relatively small changes in the sun's output thereby appreciably altering the climate. Results have implications for life and property throughout the Caribbean, Mexico, and portions of the United States.

Received 22 April 2008; accepted 13 August 2008; published 19 September 2008.

Keywords: hurricanes; solar activity; climate.

Index Terms: 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1650 Global Change: Solar variability (7537); 1739 History of Geophysics: Solar/planetary relationships.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Link


Hahaha. Nice try. However, I specifically said maelstroms. Though, you said 'solar activity' rather than like, sun spots...

Not quite deserving the 'Subway Cookie' but you can have an Oreo for that. ;)
wow. Thanks for everything guys!
BREAKING NEWS Dow Jones stock exchange was down over 800 points today at lowest currently down 550 points

Mom I had interaction with wild dolphins while surfing. Got bubped a few times, had a few show bellies to me then one decided I was a landing pad for an ariel manuver. Dove out of the way just before it landed across the nose of my board!

They (about 5) stood in the line up with us for almost 20 minutes. Played with everyone :)

To this day I feel it was a religous experience! One I will never forget for the rest of my life.
oh gotcha cotillion malestrom as in whirlpool. Then you are right the only paper is the one you linked for us.

I will still search though.

Oh an the Oreo was yummie :)
Its down 400 points right now its been rebounding for a while.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
12:00 PM UTC October 6 2008

==========================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather (1006 hPa) located at 12.6S 75.3E has 10 minutes sustained winds of 20 knots and is reported as moving southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
Near gale-force winds and rough seas in the southern semi-circle.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.6S 73.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.9S 71.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.4S 67.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.6S 64.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Strongest winds are localized in the southern semi-circle and mainly in the southeastern quadrant due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Tomorrow, a trough is expected to shift in the south of this low stopping the poleweard trade wihds inflow, system will also probably weaken. MSLP is higher than usual.

At this stage of intensity, regular tropical cyclone warning are not issued at the moment.

Next tropical cyclone warning is at 0:00 AM 06OCT

---
01S may be possible from the JTWC
Quoting Vortex95:
Its down 400 points right now its been rebounding for a while.


it is now back to only 336 points down
Quoting Bonedog:
one decided I was a landing pad for an ariel manuver. Dove out of the way just before it landed across the nose of my board!
Sounds incredible and funny. The Marine Widlife Protection Act doesn't protect you from them wanting to play with you only the other way around ;-)
your right Mom. No bites but a lot of hard bumping and scraping. It was amazing the way they interacted with us. One fellow said he spoted two in a wave he caught following behind.

They are incrediably intellegent and playful!
Lowest pressure so far about 1003mb...some 50kt SFMR readings
under 375 i'll shut up about this until it closes in 8 minutes. Still not good but a nice recovery considering.
wow if Dow Jones was down that much earlier today.
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCO (AL132008) 20081006 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081006 1800 081007 0600 081007 1800 081008 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 94.5W 20.1N 96.5W 20.3N 98.4W 20.0N 101.1W
BAMD 19.4N 94.5W 20.1N 96.1W 20.6N 97.4W 20.8N 98.5W
BAMM 19.4N 94.5W 20.0N 96.2W 20.3N 98.0W 20.4N 100.0W
LBAR 19.4N 94.5W 20.6N 95.7W 21.8N 96.7W 22.8N 97.6W
SHIP 45KTS 57KTS 65KTS 69KTS
DSHP 45KTS 57KTS 49KTS 35KTS

dang its dropping up like a rock doubt it will get by -200.
Tropical Depression 13 has been upgraded to Tropical storm Marco with winds of 50 MPH.
looks like TD13 is trying to make it to hurricane status
Marco huh.. wonder what the gale force winds radius is with this new tropical storm.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCO (AL132008) 20081006 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081006 1800 081007 0600 081007 1800 081008 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 94.5W 20.1N 96.5W 20.3N 98.4W 20.0N 101.1W
BAMD 19.4N 94.5W 20.1N 96.1W 20.6N 97.4W 20.8N 98.5W
BAMM 19.4N 94.5W 20.0N 96.2W 20.3N 98.0W 20.4N 100.0W
LBAR 19.4N 94.5W 20.6N 95.7W 21.8N 96.7W 22.8N 97.6W
SHIP 45KTS 57KTS 65KTS 69KTS
DSHP 45KTS 57KTS 49KTS 35KTS



Did the model page change URL's? My link isn't working and if you could provide a link to the model page that would be great. Thanks.
Quoting Vortex95:
dang its dropping up like a rock doubt it will get by -200.


Dow is back above 10000 points but I am worried what tomorrow will bring
Thank you for the stock market update.
its over 10,000 again wow it went from a disater potentially to just a above average bad trading day.
Yup all the markets across the globe went haywire today
Quoting Cotillion:


Cyclone Tracy... gale force winds only extending 30 miles from the centre.

In contrast, Typhoon Tip had a diameter of 1,380 miles. Quite the couple.

And referring to my previous link... 'Hurricane-sized whirlpools...'

Uhm, because hurricanes *clearly* are of an uniform size?


By the way, I don't think Tip's wind radii was ever measured. (I think the data for Atlantic only goes to the mid 80s, let alone for Typhoons before that.)

But as a guide (After a bit of quick digging), Gilbert has the biggest ever wind radii for an Atlantic 'cane (Big surprise...) at roughly 225 nmi (or 258 miles) wide. This is for minimal 35kt tropical storm winds.

Link: Link

Bear in mind, as hurricanes evolve into an extratropical cyclone over higher latitudes, the wind field increases. It is almost probable that with this in mind, that largest wind radii is for a storm that is still tropical, but changing into an extratropical cyclone.
Quoting Vortex95:
its over 10,000 again wow it went from a disater potentially to just a above average bad trading day.


It still was a horrible day because now people will be worried about there stocks even more the drop today was close to 9% at 1 point that is incredible
considering how volitile it has been it can be up 300 or down 300 by noon tommorow. Anyways is Marco the next name?
Quoting extreme236:


Did the model page change URL's? My link isn't working and if you could provide a link to the model page that would be great. Thanks.


Here, bookmark it.
Link
from the Navy site

Atlantic
13L.MARCO


Quoting Vortex95:
considering how volitile it has been it can be up 300 or down 300 by noon tommorow. Anyways is Marco the next name?


Next name is Nana, seeing TD 13 was just upgraded a few minutes ago to Marco.
it is now barely above 10000 points it still may finish below 10000
Marco has apparently has a tight inner core windfield. This, favorable conditions (warm SSTs and anticyclonic flow), and the known history of quick strengthening in this area, I wouldn't be surprised if it briefly became a hurricane.
Thats about half way to a crash 20% or greater loss in 1 day is a crash I believe.
11.09 above 10K what a day what a day :(
It certianlly can get into the 60-65mph rage its developing faster than they expected. DM didn't expect anything yesterday and then BOOM.
Quoting Vortex95:
Thats about half way to a crash 20% or greater loss in 1 day is a crash I believe.


'The FTSE 100, which was launched in 1984, fell 391.1 points, or 7.85%, to close at 4,589.2.

This means that £93.4bn has been wiped off the value of the index's shares.

In terms of points, Monday's fall was bigger than the slides seen in the wake of the September 11 attacks on the US and the 1987 stock market crash.'

Link
back below 10,000
Starting to see an eyewall feature forming via images on the Navy site.
Quoting Bonedog:
11.09 above 10K what a day what a day :(


nope you have to wait for 4:15 because of the 15 min delay online making it now less then 10000 points
GOM IR Loop Link
Dow Jones appears to have closed at 9,974
On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), one type of trading curb is referred to as a "circuit breaker." These limits were put in place after Black Monday in order to reduce market volatility and massive panic sell-offs, giving traders time to reconsider their transactions.

The NYSE sets three circuit breaker levels at the start of each quarter based on percentages of the average closing price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the month preceding the start of the quarter. These are known as the 10%, 20%, and 30% levels. Each is rounded to the nearest 50-point interval. As of the fourth quarter of 2008, these levels are 1,100 points, 2,200 points, and 3,350 points respectively. At 3,350 points the market closes!
Marco still has around 24 hours over water. That is more than enough time to spin up into something very nasty.

Humberto and Ike took 18 hours to jump a long way.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Dow Jones appears to have closed at 9,974


yea I am waiting for the 15 min delay to be done then I will agree but I think it did close there
Quoting Cotillion:
Marco still has around 24 hours over water. That is more than enough time to spin up into something very nasty.

Humberto and Ike took 18 hours to jump a long way.


Gustav did quicker in 14 hours from Disturbance to near CAT-2 Hurricane.
Correction 9,962
Taz needs to get his crow...
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Dow Jones appears to have closed at 9,974


nope it dropped further

9,962.03
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Starting to see an eyewall feature forming via images on the Navy site.


Are you using the FNMOC navy site because the regular navy site isnt working for me.
Due to Marco's tight wind field and ridiculously small size, with High SSTs and TCHP, and seeing as its already stronger than it was forcasted to become. A Hurricane isn't out of the question.
even further

9,959.48
291. melly
Being kinda versed on the market, what scares me is all of the people that watch the "Today Show" and put all of their trusts in Cramer. He talks a great story, and actually so many people watch the show he can actually "SWAY" the market.... Not a good thing, DO NOT get hooked on one person.
Quoting Drakoen:
Taz needs to get his crow...


I think he'll need a murder of them.
adjustment for delay is over it seems

DOW 9.955
9,955.50 -369.88 -3.58%
It's been a LONG time since I heard of a murder of crows--drak has some education ;-)
look at this...
all the markets were murdered today
HSIX
Stock price
16,803.76 -878.64 -4.97%
taz is gonna murder a crow????
06/1745 UTC 12.8N 30.1W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

06/1745 UTC 19.0N 94.4W T2.0/2.0 13L -- Atlantic Ocean
298. melly
Be very careful..There are penalties to moving your stocks into a more secure firm. Also, Many of the firms that hold your stocks do not move your monies until the last close of the market. Meaning, If you want to move your stocks into a more secure fixed income, you will not be looked at until the last minutes of closing, which can be devistating to you. Think wisely. when I say penalties I am meaning taxed.
Going back to what Drak said, all models show development south of the CV Islands. UKMET develops it in 48 hours and even brings it up the moderate strength at the end of the run.
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
taz is gonna murder a crow????
06/1745 UTC 12.8N 30.1W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

06/1745 UTC 19.0N 94.4W T2.0/2.0 13L -- Atlantic Ocean


No, murder means a large group of crows.
murder is the name for a group of crows. The name for a group of peacocks is ostentation, as in "an ostentation of peacocks"
heh guess some has never heard of a "murder of crows"
yup VA all world markets took a major hit.

BRAZIL BOVESPA STOCK
VALUE 42,038.18
CHANGE -2,479.14
% CHANGE -5.57

DAX INDEX
VALUE 5,387.01
CHANGE -410.02
% CHANGE -7.07

FTSE 100 INDEX
VALUE 4,589.19
CHANGE -391.06
% CHANGE -7.85


NIKKEI 225
VALUE 10,473.09
CHANGE -465.05
% CHANGE -4.25

BBC Global 30
value 5055.38
change -153.29
% -2.94


Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


No, murder means a large group of crows.


Yep. Unsurprisingly, given the poetic and folk connotations. Apparently, although now obsolete, a group of ravens were called a 'conspiracy...'

And blackbirds just flew from pies. ;)
Quoting extreme236:
Going back to what Drak said, all models show development south of the CV Islands. UKMET develops it in 48 hours and even brings it up the moderate strength at the end of the run.


Yes. I'm also leaning toward its track based on what we have seen this season. The gradual development shown by the UKMET is more likely especially with system attempting to form within the ITCZ and at that latitude. The broadness prevents the enclosure need to gain vertical depth to feel the affects of the erosion of the subtropical ridge due to the advancement of a mid-latitude trough.
Hahaha, TD13 looks so small and cute.

I can't believe I just said that. O_o
cant wait to see the overnight trading and how crapy tomorrow is going to be.

On the upside the dollar gained by leaps and bounds over other currencies which in-turn lowered oil prices.
Looks like Nana will becoming this week possibly.
As Marco seems to be going more NW than WNW to me, wouldn't it be over water longer than 24 hours?

Obviously could just be a jog...
damn hit post to quick..

oil closed at 87.81 down 6.07 :)
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes. I'm also leaning toward its track based on what we have seen this season. The gradual development shown by the UKMET is more likely especially with system attempting to form within the ITCZ and at that latitude. The broadness prevents the enclosure need to gain vertical depth to feel the affects of the erosion of the subtropical ridge due to the advancement of a mid-latitude trough.


Very good analysis. That track does appears quite likely at this time.
An area of disturbed weather (twave the models forecast development of?) nearing the West coast of Africa. Most impressive one we've seen in a while.
Quoting extreme236:


Very good analysis. That track does appears quite likely at this time.


What track? Where is this system supposed to go? Fish,, or maybe not?
314. P451
Small but potent.

ramsdis closeup
URNT15 KNHC 062021
AF303 01HHA INVEST HDOB 19 20081006
201230 1917N 09459W 9250 00753 0080 +210 +210 313015 016 022 005 03
201300 1918N 09457W 9250 00750 0079 +205 +205 312015 016 024 007 00
201330 1919N 09456W 9249 00750 0078 +207 +207 316017 018 025 006 00
201400 1920N 09455W 9247 00750 0076 +204 +204 311019 020 024 006 00
201430 1921N 09454W 9249 00745 0073 +203 +203 309022 023 026 006 00
201500 1922N 09452W 9251 00742 0071 +203 +203 311025 025 027 006 03
201530 1924N 09451W 9254 00733 0067 +198 +198 316027 028 030 007 00
201600 1925N 09450W 9243 00739 0061 +204 +204 317030 030 035 002 00
201630 1926N 09449W 9246 00733 0056 +205 +205 317032 032 034 007 00
201700 1927N 09448W 9250 00723 0050 +202 +202 325035 037 038 008 03
201730 1928N 09447W 9242 00719 0037 +201 +201 331040 042 043 007 00
201800 1929N 09446W 9247 00706 0025 +199 +199 345048 049 045 008 03
201830 1930N 09444W 9245 00688 0009 +200 +200 003051 056 048 007 00
201900 1930N 09443W 9248 00673 9989 +203 +203 024027 044 044 006 03
201930 1930N 09442W 9247 00670 9985 +208 +208 126008 010 021 005 03
202000 1929N 09440W 9251 00674 9996 +205 +205 171011 012 023 005 03
202030 1930N 09439W 9236 00691 9999 +203 +203 172026 037 027 004 03
202100 1931N 09437W 9251 00685 0004 +232 +230 164053 058 051 004 00
202130 1932N 09436W 9241 00716 0019 +241 +230 161057 061 053 002 00
202200 1933N 09435W 9246 00728 0042 +229 +229 158051 052 044 004 00
$$

61 kt FL (49 at surface), 53 kt SFMR, 999mb pressure
all the 12z models she CV development! the mm5-merge is on crack!
Quoting SaoFeng:


What track? Where is this system supposed to go? Fish,, or maybe not?


UKMET track
318. eddye
do we have a new invest
So just got back from class. I see the alternate navy site has marco up so how strong did the h hunters report?
Quoting extreme236:
An area of disturbed weather (twave the models forecast development of?) nearing the West coast of Africa. Most impressive one we've seen in a while.


It's already off the coast of Africa at a low latitude. Wavetrack 850mb vorticity and Ascend. Quicksat
Quoting Bonedog:
all the 12z models she CV development! the mm5-merge is on crack!


I smell... apocalyptocane...

And looks like the models are hinting it to go north of the Windward Islands. We shall see.
Quoting Drakoen:


It's already off the coast of Africa at a low latitude. Wavetrack 850mb vorticity and Ascend. Quicksat


Hmm...okay.
Quoting Bonedog:
all the 12z models she CV development! the mm5-merge is on crack!


It's always on crack. Hanging out with the HWRF too much....
Drak the models I belive are picking up on the vort just north of 10 in the wavetrack image. At least to my eyes LOL
Quoting Drakoen:


It's always on crack. Hanging out with the HWRF too much....


And the CMC.

Hey, we have our first model opium den.
Quoting Bonedog:
Drak the models I belive are picking up on the vort just north of 10 in the wavetrack image. At least to my eyes LOL


It's the vorticity maximum just off the coast of Africa south of 10N between 5N-7N and around 15W.
323. Drakoen 4:31 PM EDT on October 06, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
all the 12z models she CV development! the mm5-merge is on crack!


It's always on crack. Hanging out with the HWRF too much....



LOL!!

I just updated my blog if anyone would like to review.....thanks.

TampaSpins Tropical Update Link
gotcha Drak
Winds of about 50 knots it seems. Impressive.

000
URNT12 KNHC 062035
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132008
A. 06/20:19:30Z
B. 19 deg 30 min N
094 deg 42 min W
C. 925 mb NA m
D. 48 kt
E. 266 deg 2 nm
F. 011 deg 053 kt
G. 266 deg 002 nm
H. EXTRAP 998 mb
I. 21 C/ 762 m
J. 21 C/ 750 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 01HHA INVEST OB 10
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 61 KT NE QUAD 20:21:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
wow 2nm windfield!!!
Quoting Drakoen:


It's always on crack. Hanging out with the HWRF too much....


It does have a higher resolution though; compare how it resolves the East Pacific storms as compared to the GFS:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Storm INVEST: Observed By Air Force #303
Storm #HH in Atlantic Ocean
Date/Time of Recon Report: Monday, October 06, 2008 4:19:00 PM (Mon, 6 Oct 2008 20:19:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 19° 30' N 094° 42' W (19.5°N 94.7°W) [See Map]
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 48KT (55.2MPH 88.9km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 2nm (2.3miles) From Center At Bearing 266°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 53KT (60.95mph 98.2km/h) From 011°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 2nm (2.3 miles) From Center At Bearing 266°
Minimum pressure: 998mb (29.47in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 925mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm


It might have time to become a minimal hurricane before making landfall.
Quoting extreme236:
Winds of about 50 knots it seems. Impressive.

000
URNT12 KNHC 062035
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132008
A. 06/20:19:30Z
B. 19 deg 30 min N
094 deg 42 min W
C. 925 mb NA m
D. 48 kt
E. 266 deg 2 nm
F. 011 deg 053 kt
G. 266 deg 002 nm
H. EXTRAP 998 mb
I. 21 C/ 762 m
J. 21 C/ 750 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 01HHA INVEST OB 10
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 61 KT NE QUAD 20:21:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB


Just as I supsected it would soon, Marco's rapidly intensifying.
Wow Dr. Masters gave this storm a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm and it looks like we have one of decent strength just 7 hours after he said that. With such a tiny windfield it will be interesting to see how strong this thing gets.
In fact, since those flight level winds were at 925mb, those winds would translate to 55 knots at the surface.
48knt 55.2 mph
Quoting extreme236:
In fact, since those flight level winds were at 925mb, those winds would translate to 55 knots at the surface.


65mph. And it still has plenty of time. I think I spoke too soon on hoping it wasn't to be a Lorenzo...

At this rate, it's going to be worse.
998mb 55kt 65mph 5:00pm
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...19.5 N...94.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
TD 13's now offically Marco with 65 MPH winds

!!!
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MARCO COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS
IT NEARS THE COAST.

MARCO IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM FROM THE CENTER.


Tracy windfield nopt strength though
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MARCO COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS
IT NEARS THE COAST.

MARCO IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM FROM THE CENTER.
Discussion still referring to about 24 hours still over water, though not much in the way of increasing of intensity - I guess the reasoning is land interaction.

At this stage, I don't buy that. I wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane within the next 6 hours.
LOL double post sorry folks
So what are the thoughts on this becoming a hurricane? It only has 10 knots of strengthening to go..... This has to be one of the smallest storms I've ever seen.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
So what are the thoughts on this becoming a hurricane? It only has 10 knots of strengthening to go..... This has to be one of the smallest storms I've ever seen.


Well given the current rate of intensification and even the NHC noted it, Likely. Perhaps even to Category 2 strength.
Like I said in post 344. Has Tracy's wind radi but not her strength.

Wonder if they will call it the smallest Atlantic cyclone on record?
VASURFER Had a wonderful vacation in Puerto Vallarta MX - Surf was sooo memorable ( I did have some terrifying moments --big dropins for me, but my son was in for hours)If your not familiar with the breaks --some are very difficult to get to -- lots of guards and no trespassing signs that are enforced...yes w/dogs) I was lucky and had a local connection that hooked us up. Remember there are many boulders hidden around the bottom, some nasty coral reef and SEA URCHINS! something here in SWFL we don't think about. But the word PRISTINE -- I don't know about that. The ships do dump sewage, and the sewage plant breaks down often, overflows and inspite of the Public relations tourist blab -- the locals will tell you they overbuilt, so the plant doesn't not handle the amount of incoming. We did not get sick (and I have right here at my own breach break) but you may want to keep that in mind. Pottery turned me on to Angostura - nasty taste, but it kills a lot of the bacteria that could ruin your trip. It's a "bitters"

Food was good and cheap -- great varieties of fresh fish at the local markets --worth checking out

Also, if you are adventurous and know how to ride...try to hook up w/ the local rancheros that have horses on the beach. You can ride the ride and for a few extra dollars -- get them to take you up in the mountains -- the views, the geography --just amazing (but if you ask to leave the beach --be sure you know how to ride and wear JEANS) We picked Mangos off trees, eat them and shared w/the horses.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
So what are the thoughts on this becoming a hurricane? It only has 10 knots of strengthening to go..... This has to be one of the smallest storms I've ever seen.


Check this out:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Wow MichaelSTL, that windfield is about the size of Miami lol
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Check this out:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


Just goes to show size isn't everything.


wraping up very nicely. as said before man its a small system. But look at those overreaching cloudtops at the center. Impressive
I wouldn't be surprised to see this a hurricane at 11. I don't really see too many inhibiting factors to prevent strengthening. Low wind shear and a moist environment... This hurricane season sure has been an interesting one
Could it become an ity bity hurricane that would be wierd
I think if it got any smaller it would be a tornado
If it still has about 24 hours over water then Marco should be able to become a hurricane.
I never would have thought this little puff would be so tough --- reminds me of me......well, I took the board out of the car this afternoon --fully convinced Marcos wouldn't be......looks like we got a little dustdevil here.
So, is this little storm trying to beat out Tracy for being the smallest Tropical Cyclone ever recorded?
Well, it's dropped... 9mb in 3 hours? Up 30mph? That's impressive by itself. If it continues that up, it's going to be intense.

Should be interesting if/when it pops out an eye.
Dang it now I have to eat cardboard
someone said they'd eat crow
with a WNW @ 9 motion should be over water for at least 24hrs given the realitivly small size.

I wonder how wierd it was for the HH with a 30nm storm. Flights ina nd out would be quick wouldn't they?
The season that nearly has it all...

MARCO IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM FROM THE CENTER.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

(At this point, I'd like to clarify... Gilbert is no longer the biggest hurricane in terms of wind radii. Ike is.)
Quoting Cotillion:
The season that nearly has it all...

MARCO IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM FROM THE CENTER.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

(At this point, I'd like to clarify... Gilbert is no longer the biggest hurricane in terms of wind radii. Ike is.)


I was just comparing them.
surfmom, I spent 4 years in PR . I think I visited all of the beaches dove and surfed most. Hope you made it to the North shore. Jobos, Gas chamber ,Crashboat beach and if you didn't make it to Rincon,(site of the late 60s world surf championships) and domes(old nuclear power plant containment buildings)around the corner from Rincon, you need to rebook yer flights! but that was in the early 70s . I understand that they now have severe inshore ocean and freshwater contamination problems. I guess it's like Hemmingway said "remember em as they were and write em off".
Marco sure did ramp up quickly! Sorry to say this but happy he won't be impacting us here. Small but likely powerful.
2008's had the 3rd most and 6th most destructive hurricane, the largest Atlantic Hurricane and the smallest, and the fastest intensification phase from Disturbance to Hurricane, first time a TS formed in May since 1981, Earliest Cape Verde hurricane, longest lasting July Hurricane, and has caused 51 Billion dollars in damage and killed a thousand people.
Quoting Bonedog:
with a WNW @ 9 motion should be over water for at least 24hrs given the realitivly small size.

I wonder how wierd it was for the HH with a 30nm storm. Flights ina nd out would be quick wouldn't they?


I'm going to take a guess and say it's going to make landfall in 24hours at the northern end of the watch area. The storm appears in the process of beginning a turn nw.
anyone know the flight speed of the HH aircraft? Trying to figure out exactly how long it took them to fly through the storm.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
2008's had the 3rd most and 6th most destructive hurricane, the largest Atlantic Hurricane and the smallest, and the fastest intensification phase from Disturbance to Hurricane, first time a TS formed in May since 1981, Earliest Cape Verde hurricane, longest lasting July Hurricane, and has caused 51 Billion dollars in damage and killed a thousand people.


And a few other things, like the first season since 1947 to have the first 9 storms impact land in some way.

The only thing we're missing is a Category Five... I pray we don't have that, and all those credits were used last year.
I am a little confused. The wu-map shows TWO systems Marco and Invest 96. Is there another system just a little south and west of Marco. Also, the satellite view seems to show Marco moving much more NW or NNW then the computer modules project.
Quoting Cotillion:


And a few other things, like the first season since 1947 to have the first 9 storms impact land in some way.

The only thing we're missing is a Category Five... I pray we don't have that, and all those credits were used last year.

PSA may find Gustav was a Category 5.
Quoting Cotillion:


And a few other things, like the first season since 1947 to have the first 9 storms impact land in some way.

The only thing we're missing is a Category Five... I pray we don't have that, and all those credits were used last year.


Gustav was probably a cat 5. Post season will probably become one.
369

Texas seems to be a TS magnet this year. And given how odd this year is, we may as well get a landfall here in October, especially given the local media made a bid deal late last month when we effectively hit the end of our hurricane season. :P
30 NM gale force wind from the center in TS Marco...
wadcane I think its just the WU is updating the 5pm for Marco. 96 should be removed soon.
syunick -- I think they were talking about Puerto Vallarta in MX -- maybe my fingers slipped and I typed PR in stead of PV -- You are talking big stuff, big waves.... I'm just a little surfmom LOL..... those will be for my young buck.....

but the point you made --dirty water is sadly everywhere we go -- my beautiful gulf has been treated like a toilet bowl for years.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

PSA may find Gustav was a Category 5.


Yes, that's true. That will be interesting to see. 'course, they may end up taking 12 years or whatever, like they did with Andrew. :P
Quoting wadcane:
I am a little confused. The wu-map shows TWO systems Marco and Invest 96. Is there another system just a little south and west of Marco. Also, the satellite view seems to show Marco moving much more NW or NNW then the computer modules project.


It takes them a while to update and get rid of the invest info once it becomes a storm.
So the circus storms this year were
Arthur the gender changing storm
Bertha the storm that wouldn't die
Dolly the storm that would not form
Fay the storm that hated Florida
Gustav defies all intensity predictions
Hanna the drunk one
Ike the Giant
Marco the Midget
Sorry if this offends someone
Marco is almost a hurricane and look how tiny that thing is!!
Marco is beginning to take on the appearance of a strong TS or minimal hurricane.
Quoting extreme236:
Marco is beginning to take on the appearance of a strong TS or minimal hurricane.

It already is a strong TS
Afternoon all, just on a fly by before cooking dinner. Wanted to give a quick update on the relief effort progress.


Ike Relief Update 10-6-08

Afternoon all, the push to continue to keep supplies rolling to the Gulf Coast continues. This morning we shipped out three sets of packages with medical supplies and some cleaning supplies. The first set of two boxes went to the Bridge City Fire Department. It contained burn kits, bandages, first aid kits, Neosoprin, an air splint and more. The second set of boxes went to Eagle Heights Fellowship in Baytown. This is a shelter being run by a local pastor and seems to be one of the few shelters in this area that will remain open for the next four to six weeks. The supplies in these three boxes included CPR kits, first aid kits, disinfectant wipes, gloves, and more. The third set of three boxes were shipped to EmmyRose which she will personally deliver to the San Leon/Baycliff area. They included many of the same items listed above. We have estimated the value of these seven boxes to be between $4000 and $5000 which we shipped for just under $350.

We are also continuing to work with several corporations in order to procure donated goods which have been specifically requested by Chambers, Harris, and Orange Counties. Will continue to update on those efforts after we have solid commitments from each. Over 5,000 square feet of warehouse space has also been donated to us in Atlanta; a centrally locate metropolis. This will allow us to have corporate donated goods sent to a central location from which they can then be kitted and transported to various distribution points and shelters. A trucker and truck which will pick up and deliver goods for the cost of fuel. With all of this going on we are also entering the next phase of or our push to make Portlight a sustainable entity that will be able to facilitate the needs of the under served, unserved, and forgotten people for years to come. In order to help support this mindset we are beginning a monthly donor program. There will be more on this in the next few days as well as progress on getting supplies in hands; please consider what you may be able to give on a monthly basis. Thanks!

More supplies on the way...


Quoting all4hurricanes:

It already is a strong TS


I know, I'm referring to its satellite presentation.
Has every tropical depression strengthened into a named storm this year? I don't think any depression failed to make it to named status.
388. clowe
I've been having a queasy feeling about invest 96 for days, not lessened any by Marco's organization and strengthening. I'll be paying close attention to what happens in the next several days.

marco could the smallest hurricsne ever
Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all, just on a fly by before cooking dinner. Wanted to give a quick update on the relief effort progress.


Ike Relief Update 10-6-08

Afternoon all, the push to continue to keep supplies rolling to the Gulf Coast continues. This morning we shipped out three sets of packages with medical supplies and some cleaning supplies. The first set of two boxes went to the Bridge City Fire Department. It contained burn kits, bandages, first aid kits, Neosoprin, an air splint and more. The second set of boxes went to Eagle Heights Fellowship in Baytown. This is a shelter being run by a local pastor and seems to be one of the few shelters in this area that will remain open for the next four to six weeks. The supplies in these three boxes included CPR kits, first aid kits, disinfectant wipes, gloves, and more. The third set of three boxes were shipped to EmmyRose which she will personally deliver to the San Leon/Baycliff area. They included many of the same items listed above. We have estimated the value of these seven boxes to be between $4000 and $5000 which we shipped for just under $350.

We are also continuing to work with several corporations in order to procure donated goods which have been specifically requested by Chambers, Harris, and Orange Counties. Will continue to update on those efforts after we have solid commitments from each. Over 5,000 square feet of warehouse space has also been donated to us in Atlanta; a centrally locate metropolis. This will allow us to have corporate donated goods sent to a central location from which they can then be kitted and transported to various distribution points and shelters. A trucker and truck which will pick up and deliver goods for the cost of fuel. With all of this going on we are also entering the next phase of or our push to make Portlight a sustainable entity that will be able to facilitate the needs of the under served, unserved, and forgotten people for years to come. In order to help support this mindset we are beginning a monthly donor program. There will be more on this in the next few days as well as progress on getting supplies in hands; please consider what you may be able to give on a monthly basis. Thanks!

More supplies on the way...


thanks for the update SJ and all that you have done.
Quoting btwntx08:

marco could the smallest hurricsne ever


Already is. It has matched the record.
What are the steering currents for Marco? Could Marco move more NW or MMW and parallel the coast of Mexico???
What happened to all that wind shear in the BOC that would prevent 96L from developing?

Yesterday, I kept posting condition in the Yucatan with 96L (Campeche, etc) showing pressures falling, etc.

All I got in response was "wind shear will prevent development."

Quoting wadcane:
What are the steering currents for Marco? Could Marco move more NW or MMW and parallel the coast of Mexico???


Link

For 990-999mb.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

It already is a strong TS

he knows already
its funny looking at the sat pic Marco almost fits inside a single lat/lon box LOL
If Forrest Gump had a daughter I would think it would be named ''Fay'' Gump.
It would be interesting to find a sat picture for a good sized supercell thunderstorm and set it next to a picture of Marco, same scale, etc. See which one is bigger.

I have a feeling it would be close, and the thunderstorm may win.
390. ditto and thanks to all involved at all levels. My personal preference to support grassroots efforts will continue as you move forward with your plans. Looking forward to further details.


current thunderstorms over florida set alongside Marco. Same Scale LOL
any chance of the system in the atlantic becoming anything to watch? Marco looks to be wrapping up nicely, gotta remember this is the first system really to form over the BOC.
plywood. models (all at 12z) show something in the atl in 48hrs and getting strong.

Illinois super cell wins
Thanks 394. Looking at the steering currents if Marco would have formed 60 75 miles East, the Steering current would have taken it DUE North
What I am concerned with is this. The Yucatan channel truly has remained one of those untouched areas like the Bahamas was before Ike wandered in there. I am worried over the Florida issue if a storm were to meander through that area, all of us remember Wilma. Combine Wilma with the TCHP we see now, think about it....
Marco is growing up.
Bone, just think, you are going to be in my neck of the woods soon. Just think of the South Florida craziness you will see during an approaching storm. Oh yay!
# 400

We've been having flooding rains in my area of Ft. Myers Fl.
plywood would bring back memories!!!

funny I might need to vacation with my go pack! LOL
393SWFLCAT5 -- That's what I have been wondering & why I put the board back in the house --so where's the shear???
Quoting angiest:
It would be interesting to find a sat picture for a good sized supercell thunderstorm and set it next to a picture of Marco, same scale, etc. See which one is bigger.

I have a feeling it would be close, and the thunderstorm may win.


Here is a comparison to some very severe storms I had earlier this summer (same scale):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
cat 5, pembroke pines had over 7 inches of rain this past saturday alone.
also funny is we are bringing folks with us that have nver been through a tropical system so that should be real fun.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What I am concerned with is this. The Yucatan channel truly has remained one of those untouched areas like the Bahamas was before Ike wandered in there. I am worried over the Florida issue if a storm were to meander through that area, all of us remember Wilma. Combine Wilma with the TCHP we see now, think about it....


Nah i was worried in the begining of the year but it seems like 04 and 05 wont happen again (not this season at least) ... i higly dought that a storm would hit s.fla

By the way the Gom casters really had fun this season ....

(Rolls Eyes)
all4canes thats funny a supercell beats a hurricane in size LOL
Bone, and then some.
we might saw a TD in the atlantic in the next 48 to 72 hours.Even that can someone show me a link
of the ridge and forecast because gfs are very bullish to develop stronger than a cat 2 hurricane recurving out the sea while the UKMET seems a lot more reasonable moving westward to west northwestward as a strong tropical storm in the next 5 days.
We've got rain here in SRQ on & off - no flooding

Like the comparasion pic of FL next to Marcos -- he's a petite size....... and let's hope he stays that way----

Bonedog -- several longboards in the backroom...ready to stir up your home beach again?
Quoting Bonedog:
all4canes thats funny a supercell beats a hurricane in size LOL

Not a hurricane yet but it is pretty ironic

Could Marco hit land then head N and eventually end up in Texas?
413 -- I think they may be disappointed
hurricane shelter here you go
Lol Marco is a wimp he not even the size of s.fla... compared to wilma...

But then again............

Small storms get stronger like andrew...
Marco could become a 80 mph winds hurricane in the next 18 hours similar to Lorenzo.
exactly plywood. I haven't even hinted at it with them. Don't need to scare the daylights out of them just yet, I'll wait till cocktails on the lani at sunset :)

yes I know Im eveil :) LOL


Check out the BAMM. The only model on here that has any kind of handle in this system.
all4, don't say that. we have relief drives going in tx. What do you think Sj and Press-in-A-Dress are up to?
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Lol Marco is a wimp he not even the size of s.fla... compared to wilma...

But then again............

Small storms get stronger like andrew...

Wasn't Gustav small in the beginning but still rapidly intenified to a cat 1 before Haiti
!!!!!!!!!!!!! NEW BLOG !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
429. P451
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Not a hurricane yet but it is pretty ironic

Could Marco hit land then head N and eventually end up in Texas?


ROLLS EYES ...

Stands up and sings :

T. T is for texas the cool state
E. E eating which texas loves to do
X. X is X which marks the spot
A. Annyoing which u texas casters are
S. S for $ Which the world needs

C. C is for crud what comes out of your mouth
A. is for (Beeped out word)
S. Sorry i must say
T. Tee hee i am laughing
E. Eat on just dont eat more hurricanes
R. R stands for Retart i hope you do not become one

Now Back to weather ---->
wow! Thats a puny storm!! LOL