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Message from Jeff and Gamma Update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:31 AM GMT on November 19, 2005

Dr. Masters was nice enough to write you all a blog entry before he left for vacation. Enjoy what he wrote along with a Gamma Update below.

Message from Dr. Masters

It's probably premature to talk about this, since we may still see more tropical storms this season, but was this year's total of 24 Atlantic tropical storms really a record? It is almost certainly a record for the number of storms since the year 1944. That was the year that the U.S. began flying regular long-range aircraft reconnaissance missions over the Atlantic to detect tropical storms far out over the ocean. According to Dr. Chris Landsea's paper, A Climatology of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes, only a very few short-lived tropical storms that formed far out over the open Atlantic were missed by these aircraft missions or ships plying the shipping lanes between Europe and North America. Beginning 1960, weather satellites gave us full coverage of all the ocean areas, and it is unlikely we missed any tropical storms after then. Looking at the tracks for the 2005 hurricane season, only Tropical Storm Lee may have been short-lived enough to not be detected by aircraft and ships. Similar examinations of the hurricane tracks of storms from the past ten years yields an average of perhaps one storm per year that may have been missed. However, for the period 1851-1910, the Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-analysis Project estimates that the number of missed tropical storms and hurricanes for the 1851-85 era is on the order of 0-6 per year and on the order of 0-4 per year for the period of 1886 to 1910. (The higher detection for the latter period is due to increased ship traffic, larger populations along the coastlines and more meteorological measurements being taken.) There were no years in the the 1851-1885 period with more than 12 tropical storms. But 1887 had 19 tropical storms, so there is a small chance that 1887 tied 2005 with 23 storms if the maximum of four missed storms occurred.


Figure 1. Tracks for all 2005 Atlantic tropical cyclones.

During the 1910-1944 era, there is one other year that might have challenged 2005 for the record number of storms--1933, when 21 tropical storms formed. If we assume that increased ship traffic since the 1886-1910 era resulted in 0-3 tropical storms being missed during 1933, there is a 25% chance that 1933 bested 2005 for the busiest season on record, if a full three storms went undetected. Hurricanes are much harder to hide than tropical storms, though, since hurricanes last longer and typically have long tracks that multiple ships will encounter. Thus, it is likely that this year's tally of 13 hurricanes is unmatched since 1851. There were only 10 hurricanes in 1933, and 11 in 1887.

So in conclusion, the 23 storms and 13 hurricanes observed in 2005 were both very probably records for the post-1850 time period for the Atlantic. There may have been years before 1851 that had greater levels of activity, as the emerging science of paleotempestology is attempting to discover.

Jeff Masters

Gamma Update
Satellite imagery showed an increase in convection north of the storm's center early, but has since decreased once again. The storm center was located at 16.9N 86.2W at 1 a.m. EST with sustained winds at 45 mph. This is 140 miles east-southeast of Belize City.
High pressure north of the storm is expected to weaken, allowing a trough currently over the Plains to sweep the storm on a more northern course. Some strengthening of the system is possible, but wind shear is still high so any further intensification will be limited.

Figure 2. Computer models for Tropical Storm Gamma.
A couple of the (GFS and UKMET) are out to lunch, keeping the storm system in the western Caribbean and dissipating it. The latest run of the GFDL has trended more to the east, keeping the system's center off the Yucatan Peninsula, tracking it over western Cuba and through the Florida Straits. As far as Florida, this model run takes the storm farther south than the run earlier on Friday.
The NHC official forecast trends toward the GFL as the BAM model appears to be too far to the west, taking the storm over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted for the coast of Belize where heavy rainfall is also expected. Warnings are also in effect for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay Islands of Honduras.

I will be back later Saturday with another update.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I had to get up real early because I was worrying about Gamma all night. Steve Weagle (my favorite weatherman, and a hunk) showed Gamma coming right over the northwest corner of my house. I live in Lake Worth, which is in Palm Beach county. I actually think my emotional stability is now being questioned by myself. I feel a little better seeing a more southerly course this morning.
First of all I want to say hi, been checking this site since Wilma. I gotta say that this site is really good & that u all seem to be close knit & tired of this storm season also. I am really hoping that either Gamma takes a real south route so it does not affect Fla. or that it will be really sheared apart by the time it hits. Man.... there is gonna be some REAL pissed off Nascar fans cause if we get the rain I think we are gonna get, it will have to be posponed. Alot of wasted money. I am so glad I stumbled on to this site cause the hurricane center does not have the computer models all nicely drawn out for us simple minded folk. LOL So hopefully Gamma will be sheared & this will be the last storm. Enough Already!!!!!!!!
Fshead, I think Tony has it wrapped up. I'm not a big fan of his, but a lesser fan of the Busch brothers
Melly, I think the rain from Gamma gonna dampen the race....
morning melly... steve weagle is pretty good for a local weatherman, plus channel 5 is all i get without a satellite dish... i got up to get out to the grocery store early and read the 4am update on the nhc site...

it seems like good and bad news... and i'm not trying to be an alarmist here... but it seems like gamma is better organized and can possibly strenghthen... gfdl puts it over cuba... but the gfdl changed several times with wilma... and like wilma, they're counting on a cold front to move down and keep the storm off florida... and like wilma, this may or may not happen...

so my advice, as always, is to hope for the best and prepare for the worst... going out for groceries, then will get my laundry, etc., done in case we lose power... will probably buy a few bags of ice on my way out of the store, because i can keep them in the freezer and use them on turkey day anyway... we'll decide tomorrow morning whether to put down awnings and put up shutters... the rest is just a waiting game...

mouseybabe
WOW, really going through this site..... I always went to the tropical stuff for the obvious reasons but, they got star stuff, weather from all around the world, pictures....
I dont think I will be going to the NHC site anymore!!!
I guess what do you want from a govt. operation??????
fshhead... the nhc does more providing of raw data than breaking it down for laymen... this site is excellent, and it's worth the five dollars to help support it...
Heard that.... I think I will donate some cash soon after storm passes Cause like I said this site is best I have seen for us simple minded folk LOL
ok, gotta get to the store and will check in a bit later...
cya
Goodmorning, Welcome fshhead and melly,and hello mousey,
Just getting ready for work and decided to check in on TS Gamma. Looks like it has slowed down somewhat since yesterday in the forcast, now Tue instead of Monday.
Got to go for now; will check back in when i get a chance at work. Have a great day everyone.
Gamma (the good one)

Dr Master's Thank you for the update and hope you still get to have a very good and well deserved vacation!
I have a question. What models are the most reliable, and why is that LBAR always so different than the others.?
Oh great...we have packed our Explorer for our trip to NY later this afternoon. I tried to get my fire fighter husband to postpone the trip because we live in the path of Gamma (Port St. Lucie), but he says it's just a tropical storm and nothing to worry about. Ha! Wasn't Wilma just a little breeze, too??? I have soooo much more to do now to prepare for the trip, i.e., closing shutters, pulling in patio stuff, etc.

Any suggestions???????

Preparing for a trip to the Carolinas for Thanksgiving. The big debate now is do I put up the shutters again. The ones that I just put away a couple of days ago. I am really tired of this but I remember Wilma and I am so thankful I had all my shutters up. Today I am going over to help my son assemble his new generator. We were hoping to hit the road to go north on Monday but we shall see. I am a paying member of Wunderground. It is my favorite weather site and helped me greatly during the season. I am also going to send some money for Jeff Masters plus site to get more updates and info. Ok guys, lets hope THIS is the last one of the season. The tracks shifted a bit to the south so you guys down in Broward and Dade Counties keep a close eye on this one.
FDNY, have a beer and sit in your patio furniture. This thing is going to nothing more than a rain shower up this way.
I think Weagle and Lopicola are dating.
Hi, I'm at work now. I forget alot of you will be traveling for Thanksgiving this week. I'm the one that cooks for my family so I don't go anywhere! Lucky, now all of the kids and 2 grandkids and 4 grand dogs are local so they don't travel anymore either. (Actually 2 of 3 families were local but daughter who lived in Tallahassee for 4 years finally moved back home last year in August; just in time for Francis and Jeanne!)
Those of you new to site; I've been coming here since 1995 but never new about the blogs and all of this other really good info until this summer, before Katrina. during Katrina I became an addicted blogger; never thought it would happen to me. Now I feel guilty if I miss a day not checking in! LOL..I also now find myself looking at all of the other blogs; some really interesting stuff on them. And some beautiful pictures. Then there was our Novella which was so much fun!
Got to go for now. Will check in later!
Gamma (the good one)
Hiya from The Bahamas :)
I hope that Gamma gets torn up by the shear and front because Freeport and Grand Bahama probably couldn't really take a direct hit from even a tropical storm right now after Wilma ... and that is exactly what the GFDL is predicting :(
excuse me, typo, daughter lived in Tallahassee 8 years, 4 for FSU and 4 for work afterwards.
I'm in the Bay Islands. PHOTOS see www.coralbeachinn.com

Gamma is gone--rains and winds are dropping down, but we ARE wet and took some minor wind damage.

Two power poles are down and we're on generator all night. Lost a papaya in the front yard.

Guests here are doing fine and playing dominos. Planes will fly today as winds are now minor and rain is just in drizzles.

Today the seas are still running a bit high--but are calm here on the south shore. North shore winds likely mean higher waves there as we had AKR dive boats in front yesterday.


From: javierpinel@amnethn.com
Reply-to: list@hondo1.org
To: CBeachInn@aol.com
Sent from the Internet (Details)




The tropical depression, lots of water is causing so much damage, so it reminds one of Mitch. As if Honduras did not have enough troubles....
Going east this mid day a major bridge located some 35 kilometers east of San Pedro, at the Guaymon River, one of the sides ( one that was closest to the West) fell in with one car and one person lost his life. Now all of the Honduran northeast is isolated from the major transportation and commercial centers of the North Coast. The palm oil plantations east of the Guaymon are isolated. The milk processing plant at La Ceiba ( Leyde) is also isolated. Transport can only occur by air only.
One young man was bit by a poisonous snake in Progeso. There is flooding in Progreso and evacuation has been taking place for the last two days. The prisoners at the Progreso jail have been move to the gymsasium in Progreso. The rescue units have no boats, no supplies. A fire department boat with 25 evacuees capsized on the Ulua River. The levees are giving in and there is even a shortage of bags and sand to make up sandbags.
Rivers and rivulets are now about to flow over the bridge surfaces. Maduro offered 20 million lempiras to help. The party hopefuls are going around giving out supplies for votes.
It is raining. Where I live, we have not had any electricity since 6pm, now 8.25pm. I have a diesel generator, so I am ok and in some areas there is potable water, I have a cistern with about 3000 gallons storage.
Fuel prices are being reduced next week.
Javier
LOL Jupiter! You posted just what my hubby wants to see - hahahahaha! Well, I will take your sage advice and try not to worry.....

Like Frances and Jeanne last year, I think Wilma and Gamma this year are twins, only they were born at a much smaller weight (thank God).

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Nap Turkey
It's so hard to believe that Thanksgiving may be marred by #27.....people in S, Florida haven't recovered from Wilma and must now be shaking at the thought of another 'hit'...also wonder how long Tampa Bay can escape.
There are turkeys to be cooked! will there be power by Thursday? who knows?.....someplace, somewhere, there will be outages...

Tampa Bay here..
i hav updated my blog
well, i sure am glad that jupiter is guaranteeing no worries for us... lol... i heard all that before wilma hit, and believe me, in the south end of PBCo and south of us, we got hit hard... wilma was much worse than francis and jeanne... we shall see what gamma will do...

one thing that bothers me is that i made the prdiction that gamma would slow, and she has... hope the rest of my prediction is wrong... i would sooooooooooo love to be wrong...

bayisland... glad you are through with the storm and sorry to hear that it was bad for honduras... they have enough problems without domething like this...

thanks for the update turtle... will wait to see how many times they move the projected path over the weekend... lol
Gamma is a walk in the park. I'll take 45-60 mph winds over what Charley did to me last year any day..
My husband is at the race and called me last night during one of the rain delays! Lucky for him and his friends, they ARE fans if the Busch brother's, Bud Light and Bud Select!! I think they'll have fun no matter what! Only real problem, in the event Gamma decides to become a problem is that he is driving our RV, which is also our evactuation vehicle!!

My heart sank when I saw Gamma on the news this morning. I'm so sorry for all my Florida friends. I wonder how many more times we are going to be dumbfounded by this hurricane season. It seems like it has been going on for years!
I knew there was a reason that we always deep fry a turkey. It doesn't matter if there is electricity or not! I have never had to do mashed potatos on a grill before, though. Could be a little messy!

I sure hope that cold front blows this thing WAY south.
wpbpasogirl... bake them on the grill and then mash them... not too bad in a pinch... or make them ahead, along with candied yams, etc, and heat them on the grill like in an oven...
Martha Stewart ought to put out a hurricane (no power) cookbook for such occasions!
grounded, i will also take 45-50mph winds over what wilma did... except that my mobile home is unstable now and who knows what amount of wind it can stand? i'm afraid to sneeze to hard in here... lol
nola... there are good cookbooks for both the bbq grill and for camping... and with some advance planning, things can be nearly normal
I'm wondering if afer work tonight I should go ahead and go the store and get my Turkey, ham and all of my Thanksgiving food items;just in case when this thing blows over, the stores are empty again. Regardless if I have power or not, I will have to cook Thanksgiving Dinner next Thursday.
I have cooked turkey on the smoker before several times, turns out great. I made a lasagna on the charcole grill after wilma and it turned out very good. So I guess we can make dressing and green bean cassarole on the grill also.
Hey, why should Martha come up with the cookbook; after this year, we in all of Florida should be able to write the "cook without electricity" cookbook! We've had what 8 storms in the past 14 months????
Yeah mousey,
I guess people cooked for 50,000 years without power! We had about 2 weeks last year with no power and no water. No water is definitely worse!
gamma, did you ever guess there would be storm named with your WU handle?
gamma... we could call it the hurricane cookbook and dedicate it to fpl... lol
It looks like Gamma will be a fast moving storm when it passes either through or below South Florida. Considering the NHC is only throwing out a 45MPH Max wind estimates, a direct hit will not be that big of a deal. You are talking about a minimum tropical strom. The storm is also being sheared & is small. This one will not ruin anybody's Thanksgiving week.
NO, we joked about it last August, Hurricane Gamma LOL...
I mean really, the 3rd letter of the Greek Alphabet when we had never even done the Alpha thing?
I keep joking that this storm must be mild and do no damage; how will I explain a bad Hurricane Gamma to my little 2 1/2 hear old grandson. He thinks his "Gamma" is pretty cool; don't want to ruin that thought!

Already, a lot of people on here are saying very nasty things about "gamma",,,then remembering I am also on the blog so now we say " TS Gamma" when referring to the storm. (cgablesgal came up with that yesterday!)
Let's see; hope for the best; prepare for the worse!

Gamma, (the good one)
nola, during my 5 years in the UK, i camped out all over the country as often as possible.. we cooked full meals over a tiny propane hiker's stove... it was just a burner and three blades below that folded out to make a stand... just because we now own microwaves doesn't mean we can't do without them... and i agree no water is worse... our stupid park has broken water mains twice within a week and left us without water and with no prior notice.... thank goodness i still had a stock left over from wilma!
Now I am wondering where are all of our real Storm Expert guys and gals that have all of the nice toys so they can share their expertise and links?????

Come out come out where ever you are!!!!
gainesville... is that a promise or just you being upbeat? because we heard all that with wilma... i am not saying this WILL be a bad storm, just saying it COULD be worse than this morning's predicitions...
doea anyone know if there's a place where we can go back and read all the old discussions for storms? does nhc have them archived?
never mind, i found it
OK Gamma, I will call the storm TS Gamma to keep things straight! I have to take the daughters to see the new Harry Potter movie, so I will check back later in the day. I have been wondering where some of the "experts" are as well, but I don't miss the fighting!
9am advisory update...

AT 9 AM CST...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT
255 MILES... 415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO.

GAMMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
I am hopeful that this will be a "wimpy" storm. But with the power outages still fresh, I can only wonder how well the repairs were made. Last year my power came on 2 days after Jeanne. I was out 9 for Frances. I had hoped that the newly restored lines from last year would hold up this year. Instead, more poles broke this year! I was out of power for 12 days this year. So, I am holding my breath that a whisper of wind doesn't turn out the power again. Considering I lose my power when it rains, things aren't looking good.

I do wish it would stop raining. I wanted to play with my horses before the pastures got flooded. Arizona is sounding really good about now!
According to the SAT loop, it looks like TS Gamma is becoming extratropical already. It looks like the beginnings of a cold front to the SE, plus it is speeding up as well. It shouldn't be a hurricane, but never say never, especially in this season. Link
spirit, that would be fantastic. but I still think I will go out at lunch and look for bags of charcole; that was really the only thing I ran out of the last time. Charcole got hotter than the propane gas Weber grill I also used so I needed the Charcole grill for boiling water needs or frying bacon, etc...
sure hope this thing disolves today.
Don't worry FDNY Wife - Ducks float :)
GainesvilleGator... yes, Gamma still could ruin alot of people's Thanksgiving weeks........first of all many of us have tarps on our roofs... hard to say how much wind they could take, if they don't stay, potential for disaster,, and if you believe what the NHC predicts... well, I don't, they are always WAY too conservative..
remember last year when everyone said goodbye to Jeanne because she headed out to sea and was a gonner; only once everyone's guard was down and while we were watching another storm, then she looped back around and sucker punched the same area Francis had hit earlier. Took everyone by surprise. Look up her track; .. these storms do not behave any more!
morning everyone, looks like Gamma will never really get going which is fine by me (and I'm sure all of you in S. Fla. - here is the updated list of predictions for Gamma's minimum pressure:

Predicted Minimum Pressures for TS Gamma (in mb):

LakeWorthFinn: 972
snowboy: 965
seflagamma: 983
tornadoty: 986
Jedkins: 989
sngalla: 982
SWFLKR: 974
rwdobson: 988
msuengineer: 980
StSimonsIslandGAGuy: 991
Mouseybabe: 968
KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta: 960 (first of several predictions)
OGal: 990
Hurigo: 999
bocaman: 984
arcturus: 979
Skyepony: 963
palmettobug53: 985
EllistonVA: 978
jetra2: 994

minimum pressure to date: 1004 mb (as TD27)
good to see you this morning snowboy...
any reads yet from links or recons, or what ever it is you get your info about these storms? Have any of the models changed? Is it going further south and getting weaker?
Gamma (the good one)
Just looked at Satellite...is the storm tearing up??? looks like the top clouds are blowing away from the center. Could this be correct. Or is this wishful thinking. Really, take a look and see if it looks like it is getting smaller and a big part of the NE blob is blowing away...
or am I nuts and need better glasses?????
hey seflagamma, yes it looks like the bad Gamma is having a hard time with shear (which has dogged the storm from the earliest days) - as for the course it looks like the Keys might get a visit but be clear this storm looks nothing like Wilma
57. dcw
"WOW, really going through this site..... I always went to the tropical stuff for the obvious reasons but, they got star stuff, weather from all around the world, pictures....
I dont think I will be going to the NHC site anymore!!!
I guess what do you want from a govt. operation??????"

I would encourage you to continue using the NHC and especially the navy imagery site, which have info not available here. I also run a site, if you like different opinions: Link
Dr. Steve Lyons just said it should be extra-tropical by the time it nears south Florida.
extra-tropical now you lots me
Good morning all,
Snowboy...if it's not too late for "How low will TS Gamma go?"...put me down for 1003 mb.

If you look back over past week neither TD 27 or the Panama LLC that developed Tuesday - that Gamma REALLY originated from - ever got lower than 1003-1004 mb range. And I can't see this system getting any stronger...if anything I wouldn't be surprised to see it downgraded back to a depression soon. It's getting shredded now by SSW shear. And pressure remains fairly high across NW Caribbean...at last check even the buoys to the N of Gamma were back up in 1012-1013 mb and rising.

By the way...in support of my argument that this is TD 28, look at the AVN IR Loop as of 9:15-14:45UTC...the pathetic surface remnant of TD 27 is still moving west...now on N central tip Yucatan between 21-22N and 88-89W. It's that ghostly little swirl w/ no convection.

Of course...I could be wrong...just my 2 cents.
Tropical Storm Gamma kills two
Tropical Storm Gamma pounded Belize and Honduras with heavy rain, killing at least two people, on a path that could threaten Cuba and Florida next week.
I just read on the latest NHC update that Belize has canceled their warnings because the storm is going North-Northwest and will most likely miss the Peninsula altogether. Is this true? That don't sound good for us Floridians in that case.
did any one rce on cnn or twc of the live up date from hurricane, Hurricane Dennis,Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Charley of yast year and Hurricane Frances any one yet me no thank you
doc and snowboy I like the way your forcasting is trending...
hey Doc, have noted your prediction (I think you were bang on last time) and I think you may be right about the shear being too much for this little storm
my new blog is up
Hi all, I still have a hard time believing TS Gamma would survive the shear, but since it is 2005... we're a bit off from what's possible and what's not :)
hey DR.M i hop that you are have fun on your vacation but it look like TS Gamma may come your way get back her
well, doc and snowboy, we are all hopig you are right about the shear... like i said in my prediction last night, i thought it would slow down and the pressure would be 968... but that i darn well better be wrong... and guess what? it slowed down... now, wish real hard for me to be completely off base on the rest... lol...

as for not ruining t-giving, it might be a good idea for some on here to remember there are others here who have suffered major damage and who will be further hurt by even rain and/or moderate winds... be thankful you lucked out and have compassion for those who didn't...

ok, i'm off my soap box... ::grin::

mousey
A huge year indeed. This one does not appear to be a serious threat , but those of you with blue tarps don't need so much as bad flatulence to roll through here. I'm thinking the shear and the future speed will keep this from being a major event.
is there a trend on the models to the south of Florida? this is great news!
72. dcw
This thing is dead, the LLC is 60-70 miles from any convecion.
What was that we said during Wilma? Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Nice to see that so many Floridains posting here still have a sense of humor and heartiness/hardiness.
dcw... i hope you're right
me too...i hope you are right dcw.... no lines at the gas stations so i think people are not too worried yet
Wow! If even bad flatulence would give you folks a problem with your tarps, I'll try and keep my husband out of south florida.
any one no this ?

why dos LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON...AND
LAKE SUPERIOR do not get any hurricane like the movie cat 6? any one
Not to start anything major, but a warm-core system (bascially a tropical storm) did form on Lake Huron in 1996.
They are northern interior lakes, hurricanes start in the warm tropical waters in the ocean near the equator.
tornadoty can you give me a link on that one
Torn, must have missed that. What month in 1996. I am usually up on these weather events and don't remember that one; must have not gotten much coverage. I thought the great lakes (I have Family that live on Lake Michigan in the Grand Rapid/Grand Haven area) never get very warm water and warm water is necessary for tropical storms? Intersting considering what I just posted. Gamma
Let's all watch TS Gamma with interest and due respect...and rejoice that it's probably 2005's last cyclone to threaten the W Atlantic Basin - Caribbean to USA - region. Although something could still happen in the mid-Atlantic...a big maybe. I guess I'm slightly concerned about the propensity for disturbances forming near Panama, as has occurred last few weeks. So having said that...I'll write off this season after the 1st 7-10 days of December.

Another note...there is still quite a pressure gradient between TS Gamma and high entrenched to the NW, as well as another high east over the central Carib... so the chance of gusty tropical storm force winds remains as it eventually moves to the NNE-ENE. At this time Gamma is semi-trapped between the 2 highs - and the high pressure to the NW is diminishing a bit, but the "alley-way" should open up more to the ENE as the frontal trof progresses... I see more of a "threat" to Florida with the coming cold front than Gamma.

But I will say this...pay attention to what the NWS advises for your area... a lot COULD change between now and Tuesday. I could be wrong with my opinion...We'll see...
Doc, thank you for the information; I think....
Saw something on the local news about tornadoes may be more of a threat to S Fla than Hurricane winds???
Because of the cold front hitting with the warm tropical air? any info is appreciated.
Hello everyone........hope alls fine.......just wanted to check in.......Gamma is trying to hold on to the strength she has obtained........remember.......This is the HURRICANE SEASON OF 2005!!! Thats all that has to be said about Gamma or any other storm that develops for the remainder of this season........ALSO...The Bay of Campeche could always fester up........so we always have to keep one eye open to the skies. One thing that this season has taught me is that sometimes there is no such thing as NORMAL, thats only relative to our experiences, which for mankind are only about 150 years.......Hurricanes have been around alot longer than that. Nature is impressive and beautiful in her own way. Hurricanes are necessity for this place we call earth to equalize the atmosphere......Whatever way you want to look at it, its very interesting, from a camcorder in the eyewall or from a computer in switzerland, its all good..........have a good weekend..............
gamma, here's the floridadisaster.org link about possible tonadoes etc. Link
Here you go folks, here is a link to a great paper about "Hurricane Huron". It should be noted that it is a PDF file:

Link

If you cannot open a PDF file, go to the Yahoo search engine and search "Lake Huron warm core system". You should be able to find some info that way also.
I was just reading some posts from last night. I think it was Coconut Creek mentioning about the loose roof tiles and being worried. We had very bad roof damage to our tiles after Charley resulting in a re-roof that just got done. We had 50-55mph winds in Punta Gorda during Frances and Jeanne and had no problems with the tiles themselves. Just watch out for any holes from lifted tiles and the screws being torn out, you will get leaks. But I am sure by now you know if your roof is leaking or not. Now on the other hand anyone who has a tarp on their home, low end tropical storm winds will shred it. So make sure you have new tarps on hand and cover your belongings in the house in the known leaking areas. Let's hope we won't have to worry but after the past 2 seasons it's hard not to worry in Florida. Where do you live in Coconut Creek? I moved to Punta Gorda right before Charley. We lived in the Carolina Club in Margate.
Snowboy, I'm hoping lowest is 1004 mb.

But I'll say 1002 mb.

seflaGamma,...That's right, there is considerably colder, drier air that will move south thru Florida early next week. As it supplants the warm, humid airmass, severe T-storms could be possible along and ahead of the front...we'll have to see if Gamma or remnants will be close enough to enhance this activity.

Just noticed from HPC, charts Gamma as 992 mb extra-tropical low racing along front off the Carolinas on Tuesday...oh well, my lowest BP prediction might go out the window in this scenario. LOL. With or without Gamma, a nor'easter looks possible on East coast.

Be back later this evening.
thanks everyone for the information and the links!
Tornadoty, I am coping that information in the link you provided. Will read it. Thank you so much; I find this stuff very interesting; never heard of it before so you taught me something new today! See an "old gamma can learn new tricks!" thanks again, I will take it on break and read it down.
Gamma
I've been giving a little more wieght to the gfs, nogaps & ukmet lately ~ which have consistantly agreed for a few days on most runs. I think there's a good chance when the front passes that it's gonna draw TS Gamma's energy on it's tailend, causing a strong storm to develop somewhere from Alabama to just east of central fl. As it gets rapped up sfl & Bahamas would be mostly spared compared to nfl, ga, al, carolinas. Depending on how far west it reforms with the cold front, it looks possible for about all of the east & northeast coast, north of where it reforms, to see some winds & receive a good soaking or flurry more northward. My mb prodiction for snowboy is most likely too low, as i think we will see further weakening as the cool front sets in it fangs. But that was yesterday when i felt about a 50/50 chance of gamma holding together toward fl or the Bahamas. If the storm reforms over the deep south with the cold front than keep an eye to the east for a storm to form in the Atlanic & organize while it moves south. The African storm (off the nw coast) is sitting & expected to further weaken.

I wouldn't let my gaurd in sfl down though. We found the best last year for leaky roofs was the wet dry roof tar. If ya got roofing materail left to tar. We had one bit of board showing after Frances. Added tar paper & a few shingles & tar, tar, everywhere tar. Must of had more than 20 gallons after Jeanne, really kept the rain out & held the roof together til we got a roofer 8 months later. I'd say 9 out of 10 homes were reroofed in my area last year.
You're welcome Gamma.
ok, you guys... it was bad enough thinking about TS Gamma, for which I could prepare, without having to consider tornadoes that will have little to no advance warning... maybe i should just move into my car until about xmas time... after all, it is finally getting a windshield this afternoon!
torn, good link! I learn so much here!
If gamma holds together enough for tornados to form ~ i think they'd be more likely to happen on the east coast of fl, as the energy & cold front run into the Atlantic. Like Wilma.
Thanks LakeWorth.
Well, I certainly hope the GFS is right..

Channel 10 still has it coming right at us..
yep skypony, but Dvorak shows a very ill-healthed TSGamma tracking more and more south so I doubt there's considerable threat of tornadoes
torn, what's your opinion on possible SEFL tornado activity
Yeah, i think the actual chace of tornados is slim to none.
*chance
i thought it was the cold front moving down that would cause the tornadoes... (going up on the roof to paint a big bullseye)...
Hurricanechaser, 888, tornadoty, dcw, lefty and all others that post on wunderground:

I am here to tell of you on wundergrounds blogs that I will not be posting here any longer. This is something I wish I didnt have to do, but unfortunately I have been told by certain individuals that, like me, share information and discussions at wunderground, that I am not welcome here. I believe this is due to the comments I made a few nights ago trying to end an argument between tornadoty and dcw, where some thought I was being belligerent and others believing I was making the situation worse, and also to the comment I made on Wednesday about an argument between lefty and hurricanechaser.
I have many things I would like to say before I leave. Firstly, to hurricanechaser, who commented on my blog on Thursday morning, I did not by any means intend to offend you or hold you responsible for the situation between yourself and lefty back in September. I do not hold any grudges, and I certainly dont blame people for arguments. Arguments are always two-way affairs and I do not in any way blame the argument in question on either of you. You obviously interpreted my comment as offensive to you, and I sincerely apologize if you ultimately come to that conclusion. You seem like a very intelligent person that knows a lot about weather in general, and so I respectfully wish you luck in your degree and also in your forecasts now and in the future.
Secondly, over the past few weeks I have had numerous complaints by people on wunderground about the information I provide or my predictions that I give out when there is tropical activity taking place. It has become clear to me that my discussions and answers that I give to people are not of sufficient quality to you, and once again I apologize respectfully if you come to that conclusion. That is one major reason why I am no longer of any use here.
Thirdly, I was involved in an incident on Wednesday night concerning an argument between tornadoty and dcw. I would like to make it clear to them that I did not mean to offend anyone by trying to stop the argument; I was merely trying to help you both calm down and work it out in an adult fashion. Once again, I received comments about this not only in Jeff Masters blog itself but also my own blog and my inbox. Therefore I have since concluded that I made a serious mistake and have upset certain people here.
Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, to all of those that have not criticized my posts, discussions, predictions, information or comments and have benefited from the services I have provided to wundergrounds blogs during this hurricane season: THIS IS NOT YOUR FAULT. I have had the honor of discussing tropical weather with all of you very educated people this season. Do not think that I have chosen to leave the wunderground blogs because it is your fault. Its not. Its nobodys fault. I have made my decision based on some peoples comments and the mistakes they say I have made recently in commenting here.
Lefty, it has been an absolute privilege talking with you this season; hearing your educated opinions, your explainations, advice and reading your comments and blog information. You are doing a tremendous service to all that need information and advice during hurricane season and everything else that encompasses active weather, and I hope you continue it. You are a very good person and have helped so many people over the last few months, so dont take it personally that I have decided to stop posting on wunderground.
I will finish by reiterating that I have greatly enjoyed posting at wunderground with all of you very knowledgeable people, and hope that you continue to enjoy it without me. I have learned more than I could have imagined after this years hurricane season from many of you. The only time I will be posting on wunderground from now onwards will be to update my 2006 hurricane forecast (since I promised a few days ago that I would) in February and April respectively. I may lurk on some of the blogs once in a while but I will refrain from commenting on them (I dont wish to get into another argument and drag other people into it preventing them from getting their advice or explainations), and i would have to think very hard before ever posting here again. I am deeply sorry that it had to come to this but my commenting in the future would just distract people from receiving the right information and participating in important discussions. I have greatly enjoyed helping everyone here with information, explanations or advice.

To everyone here: Have a great winter, 2006 and many years after

~Atmos~
105. dcw
Don't count this season out just yet...

Wikipedia on our worst nightmare
Torn, back from lunch now and WOW really enjoyed that information. I never knew about that Sept 1996 storm on the Great Lakes. This is a very educational website!
Now, I need to catch up on what everyone else has said since I left. I apology for saying the Great Lakes cannot have a hurricane type of storm because they are too cold...
Gamma
Hey, Thanx for the info DCW, I did not know about the navy site. Can u please post the link for me??? Ahhh I think I will still go to the NHC site, just that this one is so much better for a person with more limited knowledge of how to decipher all the numbers & stuff that they post. WOW, I hope we dont get too much of this storm cause I went without my dsl connection for almost 2 weeks. That was worse than the no power.
atmosweather get back her i like you a lot get back her
atmosweather come back i will miss you why?
Hey guys & girls.... I got a question. I heard from a friend that he saw on CNN that the levees in New Orleans are being rebuilt to the same specifications as before Katrina?? If this is the case then why are they rebuilding the city when the same scenario could happen again, probably in the near future(like next season)?
As of the 3 PM sat looks, TS Gamma isn't wonderful looking. Shear is doing a job keeping center and convection separated. Let's hope continues!
DIE TS GAMMA DIE!!!
I read the link about the 1996 Lake Michigan low and it is VERY fascinating. Thanks Torn! It makes me wonder about what goes on weather-wise around the world that we may never hear about. A while back, someone posted a link to an article on hurricane-like storms that form in the polar regions (polar cyclones, I think they are called)

I am hoping for the best with TS Gamma. I think any extreme weather event would be bad for South Florida at this point, so hopefully it will dissapate or slip between Cuba and the Keys.

Atmos, I'm sorry you don't feel welcome here. I have learned a lot by reading your posts. My advice is to ignore the negative posts and arguing and just pretend like it isn't happening. The rest of us can just continue posting and eventually the arguing will subside. Listen to KRWZ and stay with us.
"As of this time Gamma no longer a threat to South Florida" Bryan Norcross......This is awesome news!!!
Fish,
The levees are going to be built to the pre-Katrina specs because that is all they are authorized to do at this point. Even if they had the mandate to make them better, it is said that it would take years to do that. I think this is all BUNK, though. We have some of the greatest engineers and the best equipment in the world. AND several countries with very sophisticated levee systems have offered to contribute their wisdom. It makes me sad that lives, homes and businesses hang in the balance and our bureaucrats can't get it together enough to come up with a better plan and execute it. I will stop before I start cursing and get kicked off the blog.
hi canegal, so far so good! I believe she's doomed BUT I'm no expert
atmos...

i am deeply saddened to see you leave this blog... i for one felt that you did try to calm things down and mediate... a thankless task...

i learned from you, as i learn from so many others here, and that adds to the safety and quality of my life... to lose any teacher is a pity...

as for forecasting, i sometimes think you may as well have a crystal ball... so much is a case of 'if this front moves fast enough, if that shear is strong enough, etc. ... so unless you have said things that confused someone to the point of putting them in direct way of harm, how can you be so bad?

this is a place where we are to a great extent anonymous (anonymouse in my case)... and that can lead to less restraint than we show in face-to-face discussions... a lack of body language further adds to people taking things the wrong way... it's a brave new (virtual) world in which we all have to learn new ways of interacting with people from all walks of life, all nationalities, age groups, etc... your thoughtful words have shown that you can teach us something there as well...

if you choose to leave or to lurk, know that at least one person here has enjoyed 'knowing' you...

mouseybabe
Well said, mouseybabe
come back come back come back
Dude, that is the best news I've heard in 2 days!!!Now I can buy my Thanksgiving Food, Get down my Christmas Decorations, and continue to clean up my yard! YEA!!!!
And, I need to call the pool company, the pipes that are used to send the heated water into the spa broke during Wilma, discovered it last weekend. The girls called said they wanted to come over and use the hottub and to make sure it worked. I went out, turned the knobs that connect to heater and Water Went Everywhere!!! The rest of the system works, but just can't heat anything! Probably a good idea anyway as expensive as propane is right now..lol...
DUDE THANKS AGAIN FOR LETTING US KNOW WHAT BRYAN SAID. Just a little good news for a change can change my whole outlook on this weekend now.
Gamma (the only one!)
lol gamma... looks like your evil twin is done for...
Gamma, I thought you were using the word "dude" the way teenagers do and was wondering why. Then I realized it was southbeachdude's handle. LOL, I was scratching my head thinking,"That's out of character for Gamma." I think I need a cup of tea or a nap or something!
Atmos, please don't let a few people run you off of these blogs. We need to not be so sensitive in this type of environment; I had to learn the hard way myself. On a very early blog I was inexperienced in blogging and didn't realize that when I thought I was "making funny" I needed to use the "LOL" so others that may not have caught on would realize it. I learn something here everyday. Please stay on! Gamma
Latest thinking by TWC as well is not to affect US mainland.
NHC wants to wait for G4 reports of upperlevel conditions before making any commitments.
CLAP,CLAP.CLAP!!!!! Well said NOLAinNC!!!! I dont know maybe its me but what is the point of rebuilding it if the same thing is gonna happen. I think we can ALL agree that we are in new weather pattern cause of the global warming. We need to expect the unexpected & cannot go by years past data.
atmosweather do not do this there been a lot of time on her that i feel that i was not welcome here but they tell me to stay around they like me a lot and so i stay so come on back and give it one more ch ok atmosweather i like you a lot and so dos ever one on her so come back if not then i see you around some time and be safe and some time around stop by my blog this to say hi and some time you and i can talk so come back and gvie it one more ch you are all ways welcome here is that right ever one hmmm?
The "Cone" is now fully south of the Florida Keys!
I agree with seflagamma, mouseybabe etc - stick around atmos your sage advice has been most appreciated
Gotta say I am new here so not sure if my opinion counts but, I think Atmosweather sometimes u just have to ignore some people. You seem very knowledgable & we need as much thinking about these storms as possible. The paper here said how bad the weather services have been choked by the govt. cutting the funding etc... ALL thinking is good to help us in time of need!!!!
Hey MYBAHAMAS,

I'm just getting on again. I see my prediction from yesterday seems to be coming true (i. e. across Cuba). When Michelle came through here a few years ago that was the only thing that saved us, the central mountains of Cuba.

I'm hoping the shear stays high so that development is limited.
Thanks for the applause, Fish. Speaking of global warming, one of the networks is getting ready to capitalize on the concept by airing a "benefit concert" LOL, I wonder if they'll advertise SUV's during the show!
WOOO HOOOO That new track looks REAL good!!! You guys think it will still be a storm if it goes across Cuba?? Alot of mountains there to break it up.
Gonna get on a soapbox for a moment so everyone bear with me.
I've watched a lot of tempers flare on different blogs. I've seen misunderstandings occur.
We have lost some pretty good folks from this particular blog which I think is a shame.
When people write their thoughts down it is NOT the same as the spoken word face-to-face. Expression and intonation add a great deal to how words are taken. Too many people fly off the handle when reading the written word and perhaps take offense where none was intended. Then, again, ::G:: there HAVE been instances where it HAS been intended. I know, I've been the recipient of some really nasty comments. I, however, refuse to be chased off of any space where I choose to be. That would be capitulating to (in my case I considered them) petty terrorists. Why should I leave a medium I enjoy because there are some few folks who are foul-dispositioned? ::VBG:: My sweet revenge is that I only run into them for a little bit here or there while they have to live with themselves 24/7/365.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that it is a shame that in the short time I've been blogging I've seen talented, charismatic people up and leave. If nowhere else, I would think that Dr. Master's bolg should be considered neutral territory. If anyone has a beef, take it off this blog and to the personal mail boxes. If it's REALLY bad, do as I did in more than one case. Report the individual to ADMIN and be done with it.
Life is too short and we all have something we can learn from one another. Be it climatology, patience, history or a bit of fun trivia, soak it up!
Now, trust me on this. I am NO Rebecca of SunnyBrook Farm. Any of you backs me repeatedly into a corner I'm going to make you SO sorry you have no idea. I don't tolerate intolerance, bullies or pushiness. For the most part that doesn't seem to exist here, and when I see it flare up I sit back and weigh my answer.
I would hope that we could all agree that THIS PARTICULAR BLOG, Dr. Jeff Master's, be neutral ground. Take your anger and venom elsewhere, so that all feel free to comment and NOT leave off commenting, no matter who it is.
good point NOLAinNC. When are people in this world going to realize that the gasoline is one of the biggest factors contributing to this warming. What burns me is we can get energy from so many other resources its not even funny. They complain that it is to costly to convert. Hmmmm... seems to me if we do not convert then we might not be a species on this planet anymore so cost kinda goes out the window.
well said cgableshurrycanegal!!!! This should be neutral territory!
Years ago, tire companies lobbied against public transportation in cities because they wanted more folks to buy cars (and tires). In America, we use many times more oil per capita than any other industrialized nation. We own more and bigger cars and live in the largest houses and YET we have the worst public schools and the worst healthcare system by far. I LOVE this country, but we have let corporate greed ruin everything we stand for. I guess I'm on the soapbox, too
Fish, are you a Radiators fan?
Hey Coralgablesgirl,

I couldn't agre with you more and I believe my comments reiterate your point of view. Thats why I repeatedly tried to resolve the issue with Lefty apologizing numerous times for my part our conflict. Honestly, my frustration bore out of him not only not accepting my apology when I didn't resort to name calling and cursing but yet he didn't feel the need to apologize for his actions. Feel free to visit Atmos blog and read my response to his comments regarding his desire to leave the community.
I will also post my response to Atmos since he referenced me here and posted in on the blog as well/. Don't care for any further misunderstanding..too much of that already as you so accurately noed in your comments CoralCables.

Hey Atmos,

First and foremost I want to apologize for misinterpreting your appparent comments the other night that I thought implied that I was the agressor with Lefty. I agree that arguments are two way affairs. Where I disagree adamently is that I didn't once resort to name calling, cursing and the like. Moreover, I apologized numerous times that night and since to Lefty and he refused to either accept my apology nor offer one himself which was certainly necessary. It appears you should be able to empathize with me considering your difficulties with others on here also originated as a sincere and thoughtful effort to resolve an argument amongst others, so I still will never understand how you or anyone else can think so highly of Lefty. To me, its far more important to be respectful of others than sharing my knowledge about storms. In your case, I completely understand how you feel because thats exactly what I've had to endure myself.

However, on a far more important subject to me personally, I sincerely hope that you will come to the same conclusion as I have that I simply don't desire to have any further unecessary conflicts on here and only got upset the other night when I see continued misrepresentation of the confrontation I had with Lefty. Very few if any have held Lefty responsible for his behavior yet portray me as insensitive which I am far from being in contrast to Leftys apparent behavior. In short, I was encouraged by a few that they wished I would reconsider leaving the community for they truly valued my input and that in some ways I was being selfish since they knew of others who needed my advice. This being said, its obvious that the same is true concerning you and its obvious that you are a very intelligent person with a gift for forecasting and are a huge asset to many on here. I for one thoroughly enjoyed your 2006 hurricane outlook and look forward to your future updates. In conclusion, I apologize sincerely for any and all hardship my misinterpretation may have caused you and I appreciate the comments you wrote in response in my blog. Thats shows alot of character on your part and I respect you greatly for it. So, please don't leave the community because we do appreciate your valued opinion and that will remain the case. Regarding Lefty, my frustration exists because he hasn't ever or isn't willing to ever accept responsibilty for inflicting verbal abuse on others and I certainly wasn't the first and have received many comments from others who have felt intimidated to offer their thoughts because they said Lefty attacked them with verbal barrages insulting their forecasts calling them idiots, etc. Moreover, others have thanked me for taking a stand against Leftys actions and I did that because we should all treat others as we wish to be treated. The reason you and I feel so mistreated for lack of a better word and misunderstood is a result of the fact most don't care about a persons feelings just simply their own selves. I apologize for rambling a little too much here, the simple point I want to make is that I hope you reconsider and I look forward to talking with you again soon.

Thanks,
Tony
Hurricanechaser
did ever one her where DR.M was going on vacation i no now the Cone is out of FL but now look at the Cone now
hmmm not sure what a radiator fan is LOL. so I cannot answer
Radiators are a band, some of their fans call themselves Fishheads. They are from New Orleans. I guess it does sound strange out of context!
In my humble opinion..I think there are simply too many competing personalities trying to out forecast the other...we all are here because of our love and interet for weather and we ALL can learn something valuable from the OTHER regardless of our experience, knowledge, or education.

Why can't everyone simply respect one another, accept sincre apologies, and move forward treating others as they wish to be treated..ok, thats my two cents worth..now back to the weather discussions.
For Atmosweather,

I have only just started at wunderground, but I have been posting in nntp newsgroups since 1999. I have never felt that a regular poster leaving a group because of an argument was productive for the group. In the end, the larger group (often lurkers) don't get the benefit of intelligent commentary, while a smaller group feels emotionally satisfied for what usually turns out to be a very short while. I have not been privileged to read many of your comments as yet, but in my opinion, if you have make worthwhile contributions in the past, you should continue to do so in the future. As someone else has implied, we are all "big" people here. Even if we disagree, we should all still be able to share the board.

On the other hand, sometimes a temporary withdrawal from a tense situation can be helpful in moderating emotions and giving you a chance to distance yourself from an untenable position. Sometimes when the level of emotions becomes raised, people say or do things that they would not otherwise consider; this is especially true when the person under attack is on the other side of a keyboard and screen. So I can understand your actions from that perspective.

I hope you will continue to make contributions in the future, but I can respect your desire to distance yourself, at least temporarily, from the whole fracas.
Hiya from The Bahamas :)

Hiya BahaHurican. Good call! :)
I hope that Gamma stays well south of the northern Bahamas because I don't think that Grand Bahama could even handle a tropical depression righ now. :(
The best to all in this (still-going) hurricane season. :)
no I am fshhead cause I am Fla Marlins baseball fan LOL but thanx for the tip on the band. I like music & will check them out.
KRWZ, the cone takes TS Gamma well to the north of PR, as of right now, which is where he is vacationing.
Hiya, MyBaha!
Been thinking about you and your islands and how things are going! Hope thing dissipates by then!!!
DIE TS GAMMA DIE!!!
fshhead, you in MIA?
yes cgablesgal
Hey Baha,

That was a very well written and extremely thoughtful plea for Atmos to stay and I couldn't agree with that more. Thats what I did and it certainly helped. When he does return which I pray he will..people don't need to rehash something that should be in the past..it just reopens old wounds.
well is see thank you for leting me no DR.M i hop that you are keeping a eye on this ts and i hop this do not pop up to any more then a ts so stay safe and keep a i on it

atmosweather do not do this there been a lot of time on her that i feel that i was not welcome here but they tell me to stay around they like me a lot and so i stay so come on back and give it one more ch ok atmosweather i like you a lot and so dos ever one on her so come back if not then i see you around some time and be safe and some time around stop by my blog this to say hi and some time you and i can talk so come back and gvie it one more ch you are all ways welcome here is that right ever one hmmm?


did any one see my?
Back to the weather..

Here is a portion from my latest updated blog entry on my best educated GUESS as I always say regarding my expectations for Gamma during the next few days..,

Where Will Gamma Go And How strong Will It be?

Honestly, not much has changed in my initial expectation as it appears that this storm should soon move further north and encounter increasing shear after about 12 to 24 hours which will limit any possible intensification. Likewise, this shear will be the result of a strong trough which is currently digging south and eastward toward the gulf and will eventually steer Gamma on a NE to ENE motion as the upper level wind flow will be out of the SW. Therefore, I expect this Tropical Storm to remain south of the Florida Pennisula and remain a weak tropical storm. To be more specific, my best educated GUESS is that Gamma will move acrossed Cuba, stay South and East of the Fl. keys and pass through some areas of the Bahamas as a transitioning extratropical storm (meaning it will become a cold core low pressure area) before possibly being absorbed by a much stronger developing Baroclonic low that the models are forecasting to develop as the strong cold front pushes to the east during the next few days.
As always, thank you so much for reading this blog and I hope to talk with each of you again soon. In the meantime, please feel free to leave comments,any questions, or simply congrigate here to fellowship with other members of this wonderful community in my blog if you like. Thanks again and God bless each of you.

helll all whats up
am going to be heading out to the UM/GeorgiaTech game in a bit. Keep good thoughts for me, as I'm taking a rain poncho, and would rather sit on it than wear it!!! ::VBG:: Got an invite and it's been YEARS since I've been to the Orange Bowl! This is the game postponed thanx to Wilma!
Chaser, what is a trough? I know this is a basic question, but I find the explanations on this blog are easier to understand than elsewhere. Thanks for posting.
theboldman hi there

this to give you a up date of what going on her atmosweather is not going to with us no more
Hello boldman!
hello so is this true that gamma is not going for flordia the track is bahamas now
Hey noainNC,

Im sorry that I just noticed your question..a trough is simply a dip in the upper level jet stream winds (fast moving columns of air that dictate the progression of all weather systems) which in this case is being caused by a strong cold front which is the dividing line between two contrasting air masses (i.e. warmer air in front and cold air behind the front) I hope this helps explain it better. Thank you for your kind comments and you are very welcome.:)
hey Boldman,
Nice as always to see you on here..how are you feeling this afternoon..watching football, etc.?
Super explanation chaser, thanks so much.
cgables, have a great time tonight, know you are looking forward to going to the game. and YOU GO GIRL! loved your soapbox post!

I too get so very tired of those 3 page long apology and explaination posts from our dear friends here that we all love very much. And they keep reappearing all over the place time after time the same reposts. Enough of all of the past I mean PAST misunderstanding and Please stop thinking that you have to write a long explaination each time it happens...I don't want people to be run off of these blogs either. There's been time's my feelings were hurt, but I hope it was not meant on purpose. Now I will stop! LOL

Bahamas, now that we are in the clear in S Forida, I am really pulling that a very weak TS Gamma will disappear entirely and spare all of the Bahamas; like us, you have all been thru alot also.

Let's all get ready for some good Thanksgiving Days this coming up week! I am ready for this workday to end; because I will be on vacation next week, not returning to work until Next Saturday, 11/26. YEAH!!!
Can't wait to go home tonight and have a nice glass of wine!
youre soi welcome noLAinNC,

can I assume that you might also live in NC by your screen name?
hiya cgablesgal :)
Good to see ya! Everything is pretty kosher here. We had like two solid weeks of great weather due to high pressure systems over us; so the cloudiness and rain now seems almost alien. ;)
I do hope that if the shear and front doesn't kill Gamma, an unpopulated area of Cuba's mountains does the job. :)
The only bad thing is that the islands it is appearing to head to now have salt as a major product (Morton Salt) and the heavy rain could through a monkey wrench in the works. During Katrina, they lost millions of $$ in product. :(
The best to all of you. :)
Hey Gamma,

I know I am one you have to be referring to because thats what I've done simply because I've moved on but others keep bringing it back up and I am not one that backs down from bullies or will allow anyone who misrepresnts my well intentions to be considered otherwise. I don't have to restate how I take responsibility for my actions and apologize sincerely for my part in past conflicts..I agree enough is enough already! thanks.
Hurricanechaser,
You know I Love you to death but If you apologize one more time I will "attack" you myself!!!! LOL LOL LOL
Take care and we love your input into these blogs!
Smile and quit apologizing. Gamma
nce to see you as well hows it going
Yes, Chaser. Asheville, NC. I'm from New Orleans originally. I've been here about 4.5 years.
mybahamas i still listen to megathumpa sometimes
ok your wish is my command dear Gamma,lol

I appreciate your thoughtfulness and completely agree with you. :)
sorry boldman..been blog hopping..I responded to you in my blog and yors..lol..

I am probably gonna get a nap soon myself..lol
Chaser,
You got Mail !
Thats awesome NOlainNC,

Ashevile is gorgeous and I wish we could get some of yoursnow here along the beaches.:)

Yes, Asheville is amazing. We head to the beach a couple of times a year. I miss being close to the water. Where are you?
new blog up