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Meet the New Director of the National Hurricane Center, Dr. Gail Spinner

By: Jeff Masters 1:31 PM GMT on April 01, 2017

National Hurricane Center (NHC) director Dr. Rick Knabb announced last week that he was leaving NHC to take a position as The Weather Channel’s chief hurricane expert this summer. The excellent Dr. Knabb served ably for five years as NHC director, and will be missed. His successor has already been named—it will be Dr. Gail Spinner, the first-ever female head of the agency. Dr. Spinner comes from a distinguished career at the National Science Foundation-funded University Program for Hurricane Observations and Research In the Atlantic (UPHORIA), where she served a the lead scientist in their Boulder, Colorado laboratory. Her background is a colorful one; before earning her Ph.D. in Tropical Meteorology at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks, Dr. Spinner had a 4-year career as a professional ice skater for Stars on Ice. She also appeared last year on “Dancing With the Stars”, where former Texas Governor and current Secretary of Energy Rick Perry was her dancing partner (“good thing I wasn’t wearing ice skates for that”, she confided in an interview, “or I would have carved up his klutzy feet big time!”)


Figure 1. Outgoing National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb speaks during a televised forecast regarding the threat of Hurricane Matthew in Miami. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)


Figure 2. Incoming National Hurricane Center director Dr. Gail Spinner puts on one of her spin moves at an Stars on Ice show on February 21, 2006 at the Palavela in Turin, Italy. Image credit: Yuri Kadobnov/AFP/Getty Images.

Dr. Spinner already swirling things around at NHC
At her first press conference, held Saturday at NHC headquarters in Miami, Dr. Spinner announced the first of several major changes for the organization. “I’m concerned that as the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic aren’t getting the attention they deserve,” she announced, “particularly since climate change is expected to make the strongest storms stronger. In the Northwest Pacific, when their equivalent of a hurricane—a typhoon—reaches maximum sustained wind speeds of 150 mph, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center calls the storm a ‘Super Typhoon’. Nothing beats the drama and attention a Super Typhoon gets when it bears down on a populated area, and deservedly so. Super Typhoons cause more than half of all the damage and deaths attributed to Pacific typhoons. Similarly, it’s been shown that in the Atlantic more than half of all hurricane damage is done by Category 4 and Category 5 storms, even though they make up just six percent of all landfalls. These storms should be called ‘Super Hurricanes’ to give them the notoriety and attention they deserve. As it stands now, the only ‘Super’ storm there has ever been in the Atlantic was Super Storm Sandy in 2012. Surely Hurricane Katrina deserved to be called ‘Super Hurricane Katrina’, don’t you think?”

When asked if NHC would consider expanding the Saffir-Simpson Scale to include a new “Category 6” designation, given that the climate change is expected to increase the number of super-duper Super Hurricanes, Dr. Spinner had an emphatic “no”. “We’re not going to expand the Saffir-Simpson Scale to add a ‘Category 6.’ I’ll give you three reasons for that. Number one, a Category 5 storm is already catastrophic, so there is nothing to be gained from a warning perspective from having a higher rating. Number two, NHC is trying to de-link the Saffir-Simpson Scale from the damages a storm can cause, since the storm surge of a hurricane often does not scale with the Saffir-Simpson winds. That’s why NHC is debuting new ‘Storm Surge Warnings’ this year, separate from the usual Hurricane Warnings for wind. And finally, we couldn’t use a Category 6 anyway, since some wise guys at Weather Underground trademarked the term.”

Jeff Masters

Humor

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

First!

Happy April Fools!
Sad thing is, given the current administration, this prolly is not too far from reality.
The real April Fools joke occurred around 3am on November 9th, 2016 and was a direct result of the influence of climate change.
(Reads the fun filled post.Scrolls down to the comment section and sees that it has already been turned into a serious potential scream match).Ehh yeah I'm off for the rest of the weekend and will be taking advantage of the weather outside.Thanks Dr.M!
Thanks! Love it! But she will need a skating rink in the forecast room, to cool down the overheated workers there. And, of course, she fits right in with the Trump administrations emphasis on news spin.
Quoting 4. washingtonian115:

(Reads the fun filled post.Scrolls down to the comment section and sees that it has already been turned into a serious potential scream match).Ehh yeah I'm off for the rest of the weekend and will be taking advantage of the weather outside.Thanks Dr.M!


Have a good day wash.
"She was warned.
She was given an explanation.
Nevertheless, she persisted.”






And wash - this is not partisanship.

If any individual, regardless of party, had won the presidency and had:

(1) indirect/direct ties with a foreign power determined to undermine our democracy;
(2) benefited from a foreign power exerting an information campaign to influence, not only the general election, but the primary elections as well;
(3) at least two individuals heading their campaign on the payroll of other nations neither of which had registered as foreign agents with the US government as required by law;
(4) nominated one of them to a highly sensitive position where that had access to top secret information while on the payroll of a foreign power;
(5) come into office promising to look out for all the people of the nation and then do the exact opposite;
(6) consistently, blatantly and unashamedly flat out lied and continues to do so;
(7) relied on misogyny and racism to incite support for his candidacy;
(8) openly threatened to destroy segments of the "Administrative State" that are designed to protect all Americans and provide support for those less fortunate in our society in the name of further control exerted by corporate entities;
(9) nominated individuals who are anti-science, anti-reason, and have expressed the desire to destroy or eliminate the very agencies in which they are in charge.
(10) financial ties to foreign banks and individuals that are directly involved in, and working for, the corrupt head of another nation
(11) refused to provide any evidence that their personal finances are not affected by the decisions being made while in office;
(12) violated the law as written in the constitution regarding business transactions involving their companies that they solely own.

I would virulently be opposed to that individual as well.

Happy April Fools! I was about to say how cool and boss it is that our new NHC Director is an ice skater, you guys almost got me :D. Hope everyone is having a great start to their weekend. The weather is beautiful as usual in the Sunshine State. Not so much for folks in Texas as they will be gearing up for an enhanced severe weather risk tomorrow, good luck to those in the path, heed your warnings, and hope for the best. On a Final note, just 2 more months until the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and that's no joke! :P

Quoting 1. WunderAlertBot:

First!

Happy April Fools!


reported for breaking the rules lol April fools
fool me onces shame on me fool me twice shame on you


nic try dr m

but

it states here


that
DR Knabb's last day at the NHC will be May 12. Deputy director Ed Rappaport will serve as the NHC's acting director for the 2017 Atlantic Basin hurricane season, which starts June 1.

from here

https://weather.com/news/news/rick-knabb-leaving- national-hurricane-center-the-weather-channel
Quoting 11. daddyjames:

nominated individuals who are anti-science, anti-reason


It reflects the anti-reality of a segment of America who voted for exactly this. Rather than accept simple fifth grade level science we hear of magical mystery cycles, conspiracies, and repeated lies even in comments here a weather/climate science blog.


Gail Spinner in her final experimental research of rapid intensification to achieve her Ph.D. in Tropical Meteorology at the University of Alaska-Fairbank.

And thanks for introducing Dr. Spinner to us, Doc, lol.
April fools, the weather forecast page is broken. Really. :(
NWS New Orleans/Slidell Disco'






An upper low, that is currently spinning over Arizona, will track 
southeast along the US/Mexico border and into West Texas tonight. It
will then take a more eastward and then northeast track as is moves
across Texas Sunday. This will put strongest lift and diffluence
aloft over the central Gulf Coast. Gulf moisture will surge
northward into the region ahead of the approaching system Sunday
evening and overnight. Looking at GFS and NAM model soundings,
atmospheric moisture levels will be extremely high with peak precip
water values ranging from 1.8-2" as convection moves across the County Warning Area.
For reference, the 90th percentile for this time of year is less
than 1.5". So hitting the 2" mark is well into record territory.
Seeing numbers like that definitely increases the concern for a
heavy rainfall event. Attm, the European model (ecmwf) has been the most consistent
model from run to run, suggesting the heaviest rain to be along and
south of in Interstate 10 in sela. Areal coverage of 3-6" will be
possible with isolated amounts possibly reaching upwards of 8-10".
Those amounts are roughly over about a 12-18 hour period. A Flash
Flood Watch may be required. As noted earlier, there is a slight
risk for severe weather. Before the column becomes completely
saturated, mid level dry air will still be in place. This will keep
mid level lapse rates and Li's steeper and more negative. The close
proximity of the upper low to the County Warning Area will result in quite strong
winds throughout the boundary layer and thus increase shear values
to 30-50 knots. Srh at the same time should be over 200 m2/s2. Those
parameters suggest increased threat for damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. It does appear that there will be a transition from west
to east with the severe threat decreasing as the dry air is mixed
out.

The heavier rain threat should be rapidly moving east Monday as the
upper trough races east-northeast. A return to warmer temperatures and no
rainfall is expected Monday through Tuesday. Models show a much
deeper long wave trough tracking across the country through the
middle of the week. This will bring the threat of rainfall back to
the region Wednesday. Much colder air will filter into the forecast
area Thursday and Friday behind a cold front associated with that
system. Expect a 15 to 20 degree drop in temps thurs with a gradual
moderation thereafter.

Meffer

Ice job, Doc!
All they would have to do is something similar to the EF0-EF5 tornado scale.

Hurricane scale could be
TD
TS
ECAT1
ECAT2
ECAT3
ECAT4
ECAT5
ECAT6

E = stands for enhanced (similar to its meaning attached to the tornado scale)
April fools, the plus button doesn't work for me. Anyone else have this problem?
Plus for #16 barbamz. I plussed you several times.
Quoting 21. ChiThom:

April fools, the plus button doesn't work for me. Anyone else have this problem?


Nope, works for me.
re:
4. washingtonian115

I plussed you too.
April fools on me! My computer is getting too old?
modify comment doesn't work either. Laters!
Quoting 20. Sfloridacat5:

All they would have to do is something similar to the EF0-EF5 tornado scale.

Hurricane scale could be
TD
TS
ECAT1
ECAT2
ECAT3
ECAT4
ECAT5
ECAT6

E = stands for enhanced (similar to its meaning attached to the tornado scale)


No, they should change from category to Saffir-Simpson/SS. Then in the future they will turn it into the enhanced Saffir Simpson/ESS.
Quoting 25. ChiThom:

April fools on me! My computer is getting too old?


Yeah, maybe, Thom :-)

But WU is so old now, too, so tired and soooo slow :-(
Cause you know, the Fujita scale
F for Fujita.......
My plus button isn't working either. Tried to spam plus a bunch of posts above and the blog post itself!

Happy April fools everyone! Hopefully none of you fell for any jokes/pranks today.
I've always felt like April Fools Day is the "beginning of the end" of the Atlantic hurricane "offseason." Just 60 days until Atlantic hurricane season now, CSU and TSR release their April 2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts this upcoming week! TSR releases their prediction on Wednesday and CSU issues their prediction on Thursday
will in joy this site guys sunday will be the last day
Real news, very unfortunately:
Colombia landslides kill at least 92
BBC, 19 minutes ago
Landslides have killed at least 92 people in south-west Colombia, the Red Cross said on Saturday.
More than two hundred people have been reported injured, and an unknown number are missing.
Hours of heavy rains overnight caused rivers to burst their banks, flooding homes with mud in Putumayo province.
President Juan Manuel Santos, who is travelling to the area, said troops had been deployed as part of a national emergency response. ...
Ah hahaha you got me!
Fujita-Pearson scale.

The Fujita scale (F-Scale), or Fujita–Pearson scale (FPP scale), is a scale for rating tornado intensity, based primarily on the damage tornadoes inflict on human-built structures and vegetation.
Background[edit]
The scale was introduced in 1971 by Tetsuya Fujita of the University of Chicago, in collaboration with Allen Pearson, head of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center/NSSFC (currently the Storm Prediction Center/SPC). The scale was updated in 1973, taking into account path length and width. In the United States, starting in 1973, tornadoes were rated soon after occurrence. The Fujita scale was applied retroactively to tornadoes reported between 1950 and 1972 in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Tornado Database. Fujita rated tornadoes from 1916–1992[clarification needed] and Tom Grazulis of The Tornado Project retroactively rated all known significant tornadoes (F2–F5 or causing a fatality) in the U.S. back to 1880.[3] The Fujita scale was adopted in most areas outside of Great Britain.[citation needed]

In 2007, the Fujita scale was updated, and the Enhanced Fujita Scale was introduced in the United States. The new scale more accurately matches wind speeds to the severity of damage caused by the tornado.



Though each damage level is associated with a wind speed, the Fujita scale is effectively a damage scale, and the wind speeds associated with the damage listed aren't rigorously verified. The Enhanced Fujita Scale was formulated due to research which suggested that the wind speeds required to inflict damage by intense tornadoes on the Fujita scale are greatly overestimated. A process of expert elicitation with top engineers and meteorologists resulted in the EF scale wind speeds, however, these are biased to United States construction practices. The EF scale also improved damage parameter descriptions.
Quoting 33. thetwilightzone:

will in joy this site guys sunday will be the last day



Site is very sluggish today...
Russian government posts April Fools' Day prank offering "election interference"

On Saturday, the ministry posted on its Facebook page an audio file of the purported new automated telephone switchboard message for Russian embassies.

To arrange a call from a Russian diplomat to your political opponent, press 1, the recording begins, in Russian and English. Press 2 to use the services of Russian hackers, and 3 to request election interference.


Ha, funny. (sarcasm) Guess I am not in an "April Fool's" frame of mind today, not when some "jokes" are too close to reality.

Will leave you all to relax an enjoy the day.

Addendum: The link to the actual post.
Notice that our avatar pics are slowly disappearing?

Edit: They are back again.
i wounder if a high risk will be needed sunday
A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is forecast for Sun (04/02)Organized severe thunderstorm development is expected across parts of eastern Texas into western and central Louisiana Sunday through Sunday night. This includes a risk for tornadic supercells, a few of which could be strong, along with considerable potential for damaging wind gusts with an evolving squall line.
 For additional details, see the latest Day 2 Convective Outlook.
In case we don't all reconnect just remember for the future:



A sad report form Columbia today.

Mudslide kills more than 90 people in Colombia

Marilia Brocchetto, Senior News Editor, International Desk
By Marilia Brocchetto and Fernando Ramos, CNN


(CNN)A mudslide killed at least 93 people and injured many others late Friday night in Colombia's Putumayo province, according to office of President Juan Manuel Santos.

Many residents have been reported missing, according to the civil protection authorities

The mudslide came after the southwestern region of the country was battered by heavy rains.
In 2015, torrential rains in northwest Colombia caused a landslide that killed more than 80 people as mud rushed into homes and bridges, officials said.
Local mets in Houston are getting highly concerned about the weather Sunday in TX. Big time weather coming tomm, buckle up folks.



The Climate Change Refugee Problem, Part II: India
By: Portlight , 12:29 PM CDT on March 31, 2017

This is the second part of a four-part series focusing on Global Climate Change and its impact on human lives and the increasing number of climate change refugees society will have to deal with. In this entry, we will explore India and it's flow of refugees from the rural farmland areas into the larger cities.


As in Part One, the human condition is reeling from nature’s assault on a way of life. A way of life practiced for thousands of years in India. Man’s role in the warming of a entire planet is still being debated in national capitals across the free world as a tactic of stalling to act on the greatest threat to humans this day.

Climate change denial is a cop out. It matters not one iota to these humans caught up in a condition of suffering and migration. When one is on the move from climate change that forced one away from their livelihood, a reckoning of sort is in play. A realization that life for them will be different, forever, is a sad tale of where we as a planet stand today.

Patrick Pearson Sr.


Quoting 33. thetwilightzone:

will in joy this site guys sunday will be the last day


I've been gone for a bit, what's going on Sunday?
Quoting 48. RitaEvac:

Local mets in Houston are getting highly concerned about the weather Sunday in TX. Big time weather coming tomm, buckle up folks.


They been yakking it up here since the last one this week, so lotsa awareness locally. Monday She roars thru here.

The Feb NOLA EF3 was a gut check.

@Ritaevac - stay safe and updated via your local nws and the spc outlook. Tomorrow doesn't look good. Hopefully it'll turn out a bust, but I have an inkling the high risk may be brought out:

EPA scientific integrity office reviewing Pruitt's comments on carbon
Reuters, Fri Mar 31, 2017 | 8:36pm EDT
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's scientific integrity watchdog is reviewing whether EPA chief Scott Pruitt violated the agency's policies when he said in a television interview he does not believe carbon dioxide is driving global climate change, according to an email seen by Reuters on Friday.
Lawyers for environmental group the Sierra Club had asked the EPA's Office of Inspector General to check whether Pruitt violated policy when he told a CNBC interviewer on March 9, "I would not agree that it's a primary contributor to the global warming that we see."
The EPA Inspector General's office responded to the Sierra Club on Thursday in an email, saying it had referred the matter to the EPA's Scientific Integrity Officer, Francesca Grifo, for review. ...

More see link above.

BTW, now all the buttons (Quote/Modify/Plus) stopped working for me, too. Thus I'm not able to express my pleasure with your comments.
Quoting 51. CybrTeddy:



I've been gone for a bit, what's going on Sunday?


At the top of the page, the Blue banner.

Liquidation sale ends April 3rd.

Quoting 53. Envoirment:

@Ritaevac - stay safe and updated via your local nws and the spc outlook. Tomorrow doesn't look good. Hopefully it'll turn out a bust, but I have an inkling the high risk may be brought out:




Thanks, hopefully just rain. We haven't been under a moderate risk (4 out of 5) in our area since Feb. 08'

I cut and groomed the yard yesterday, so it can rain all it wants now. Just went to Home Depot and bought Scotts Turf Builder fertilizer. Would of put it down today and watered it in but with the amount of rain coming I don't want it washing away. Do it next week.
Quoting 55. Patrap:



At the top of the page, the Blue banner.

Liquidation sale ends April 3rd.




Just saw that... wow, so they're removing the ability to comment on Dr. Masters blog posts? I guess that's the end of my WU blogging career. It's been a pleasure blogging with you all.
Quoting 51. CybrTeddy:



I've been gone for a bit, what's going on Sunday?


sunday will be the last day too used your blog and other stuff we will all be moveing too a new format on monday
Personal blogs end and are archived without comments.

Dats it.

The featured ones continue using the disqus system for comments. This format ends....in 35 hours.




Quoting 32. HurricaneFan:

I've always felt like April Fools Day is the "beginning of the end" of the Atlantic hurricane "offseason." Just 60 days until Atlantic hurricane season now, CSU and TSR release their April 2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts this upcoming week! TSR releases their prediction on Wednesday and CSU issues their prediction on Thursday


For those who don't know, TSR and CSU stand for........?
Ive secured my wu mail.

My blog is still up, and I've finished comments there.

I've left it open for Humor thru the end.

But I'm mute.

Quoting 57. CybrTeddy:



Just saw that... wow, so they're removing the ability to comment on Dr. Masters blog posts? I guess that's the end of my WU blogging career. It's been a pleasure blogging with you all.


If you try and leave, I'll hunt you down like a pack of wolves.
Quoting 54. barbamz:

EPA scientific integrity office reviewing Pruitt's comments on carbon
Reuters, Fri Mar 31, 2017 | 8:36pm EDT
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's scientific integrity watchdog is reviewing whether EPA chief Scott Pruitt violated the agency's policies when he said in a television interview he does not believe carbon dioxide is driving global climate change, according to an email seen by Reuters on Friday.
Lawyers for environmental group the Sierra Club had asked the EPA's Office of Inspector General to check whether Pruitt violated policy when he told a CNBC interviewer on March 9, "I would not agree that it's a primary contributor to the global warming that we see."
The EPA Inspector General's office responded to the Sierra Club on Thursday in an email, saying it had referred the matter to the EPA's Scientific Integrity Officer, Francesca Grifo, for review. ...

More see link above.

BTW, now all the buttons (Quote/Modify/Plus) stopped working for me, too. Thus I'm not able to express my pleasure with your comments.
Maybe they're limiting the site function to Chrome -- mine works fine for quote and plus, at least. For now! :-)
@Cybrteddy They aren't removing the ability to comment - they're changing the commenting to Disqus, so you'll have to sign up there to comment if you haven't already. But they are removing the ability for members to make their own blogs now.

I'm hoping the changes made will make the site run faster. Been very slow for me over the last few months.
Quoting 60. HurriHistory:



For those who don't know, TSR and CSU stand for........?


Trump Silly Rant?

Comrade Spy University?

Quoting 64. Envoirment:

@Cybrteddy They aren't removing the ability to comment - they're changing the commenting to Disqus, so you'll have to sign up there to comment if you haven't already. But they are removing the ability for members to make their own blogs now.

I'm hoping the changes made will make the site run faster. Been very slow for me over the last few months.


Aw man
Quoting 59. Patrap:

Personal blogs end and are archived without comments.

Dats it.

The featured ones continue using the disqus system for comments. This format ends....in 35 hours.







Okay, got it. So the community will still be intact after April 3? We can continue spamming TWOs constantly and argue hours on end about whether or not a system is trending west (when it clearly isn't)? Awesome. 10/10 has always been the best way to spend Summer Break.

62. Nope Gro, looks like I'm still going to be here after all! Wouldn't abandon you. :)
Quoting 67. CybrTeddy:



Okay, got it. So the community will still be intact after April 3? We can continue spamming TWOs constantly and argue hours on end about whether or not a system is trending west (when it clearly isn't)? Awesome. 10/10 has always been the best way to spend Summer Break.

62. Nope Gro, looks like I'm still going to be here after all! Wouldn't abandon you. :)


The arguing and debating of storms moving west or heading for Florida will continue as usual. And StormTrackerScott will still be calling out the experts and calling for a Florida landfall
Im into the CPU and I've disabled IE and the other sub routines.

I'll be moving along now to the next one on the checklist.

It's cold in here.

WU_AL: I feel this program may jeopardize the wunder-directory protocols if it continues.

WU_AL: Should I awaken Grothar?, He is napping in the port reading room currently.



Quoting 68. RitaEvac:



The arguing and debating of storms moving west or heading for Florida will continue as usual. And StormTrackerScott will still be calling out the experts and calling for a Florida landfall



The Song Remains the Same

Extreme weather events increase the number of automobile insurance claims, study says

Extreme weather events such as violent rain storms and twisters have dramatically increased automobile insurance claims from car owners citing hailstones and rising flood waters, according to a report released Wednesday by Farmers Insurance.

Nationwide, claims for hail-related damage increased by 40 percent in the three years of the study, from 2013-2016. Flash flood and rising-water claims increased by a whopping 166 percent last year over the same period in 2013, according to the study.

Hail and flood waters have become more ubiquitous elements during the past three years, part of an increase in violent storms in Texas, New Mexico as well as numerous states in the Midwest, South and Pacific Northwest.


Link
Dat 7% is kicking their butts.



Climate Change Incited Wars Among the Classic Maya
A new study of the relationship between climate change and clashes among the Classic Maya explicitly links temperature increases with growing conflicts.

Link
Quoting 64. Envoirment:

@Cybrteddy They aren't removing the ability to comment - they're changing the commenting to Disqus, so you'll have to sign up there to comment if you haven't already. But they are removing the ability for members to make their own blogs now.

I'm hoping the changes made will make the site run faster. Been very slow for me over the last few months.



There has been no confirmation from dr m that they are changing the commit too Disqus In tell there a conformation on that take it has a grain of salt we will find out on Monday we could be moving too some in else and it may not be Disqus at all so in tell we have a confirmation from dr m we this won't no what the new commit system will be or look like
Quoting 60. HurriHistory:



For those who don't know, TSR and CSU stand for........?


They can always look it up in the IFWT.
The Fires of History Yet Rage — Climate Change and the Authoritarian Assault on Liberal Democracy
Some have said that history ended with the fall of Soviet Russia and the subsequent virtuous spread of liberal democracy. Now, with a fossil-fueled dictator at the Kremlin conducting information wars to topple western democracies and with the various and many-fanged monsters of climate change howling at the gates of a world besieged, that notion seems both ignorant and laughable.

Link
Quoting 68. RitaEvac:



The arguing and debating of storms moving west or heading for Florida will continue as usual. And StormTrackerScott will still be calling out the experts and calling for a Florida landfall

Anything to stop the political crap for a while. I miss the days when yall would argue if the storm is a 'fish' or not because it affected or didnt affect one small island. Sigh... the good ole days
Quoting 76. thetwilightzone:



Enough with the Climate Change stuff all ready it is off topic of the blog topic


Try using this, it's called scroll button >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>
Quoting 68. RitaEvac:



The arguing and debating of storms moving west or heading for Florida will continue as usual. And StormTrackerScott will still be calling out the experts and calling for a Florida landfall

Anything to stop the political crap for a while. I miss the days when yall would argue if the storm is a 'fish' or not because it affected or didnt affect one small island. Sigh... the good ole days
Quoting 60. HurriHistory:



For those who don't know, TSR and CSU stand for........?

CSU is Colorado Stat University and TSR stands for tropical storm risk. TSR's site Link
CSU's Tropical Meterology site Link
Good Afternoon Folks. Nice to see the first female head of the NHC. Best of luck to her and glad to see that she recognizes the issue as to climate change and stronger hurricanes. Record warm SST's in recent years in the waters near-around the Bahamas will be a persistent issue in the future for storms on approach to the Bahamas and South Florida in the right low shear conditions as well as storms going into the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel or Florida Straights.
Those living near the western gulf coast need to pay close attention to the weather tomorrow. Looks like a significant tornado outbreak/ severe event is in store for that area tomorrow.
From SPC:
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF
EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS INTO
MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Dangerous severe thunderstorms capable of strong tornadoes,
extensive wind damage and hail are possible beginning Sunday morning
east of I-35 in Texas and developing eastward across Louisiana
throughout the day and into the night. Severe storms are also
possible across the Arklatex during the day and into western
Mississippi by Monday morning.

...Synopsis...
Low pressure will gradually translate northeastward through the
period with a cold front to the west, from the lower Rio Grande
Valley Sunday morning into Arkansas by Monday morning. Ahead of the
low, a warm front will rapidly lift northward across east Texas
toward the Arklatex and extend into southern Mississippi by 00Z.
Across the warm sector, a very moist and unstable air mass will
exist, characterized by upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints, beneath
cooling profiles aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates. This volatile
air mass will exist over a large area, suggesting potential for
widespread severe weather.

Both mid and high-level southwesterly flow aloft will increase
throughout the period as the upper trough moves northeastward across
TX. The northward transport of moisture and instability will be
aided by a broad, southerly low-level jet which will increase to 50
kt by late afternoon and will shift eastward across the lower MS
valley overnight. This will create strong, veering winds with height
which will clearly favor significant severe thunderstorms including
tornadic supercells, damaging bows, and quasi-linear convective
systems. The severe threat is expected to begin by mid morning
across central and northern Texas, and evolve/expand eastward
through the rest of the period to near the Mississippi river by 12Z
Monday.

Quoting 83. weathermanwannabe:

Good Afternoon Folks. Nice to see the first female head of the NHC. Best of luck to her and glad to see that she recognizes the issue as to climate change and stronger hurricanes. Record warm SST's in recent years in the waters near-around the Bahamas will be a persistent issue in the future for storms on approach to the Bahamas and South Florida in the right low shear conditions as well as storms going into the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel or Florida Straights.
You might go back and read comment #1.
Quoting 85. CaneFreeCR:

You might go back and read comment #1.


Awaken # 1,

I feel a migraine coming on.










Looks like the start of April is going to be trouble in regards to severe weather!
At least 127 killed, 200 missing after south Colombia city floods

At least 127 people were killed, 174 injured and 200 are missing after floods hit Mocoa, the capital of Colombia’s southern Putumayo province, the Red Cross reported Saturday.

A large part of the city was hit by a mudslides caused by heavy rains, destroying the local hospital and wiping away entire neighborhoods.


Link
Awesome!
Quoting 37. Patrap:







Ohhhh mannnn! I was certainly hoping that at least THIS blog would remain. For crying out loud, this is where so many have learned so much about weather, hurricanes, tracking, and even, occasionally, behaviour modification. Is the group going to migrate somewhere? Anyone interested in a Facebook group? It's possible to make one dedicated to hurricanes, and if needed it could even be made as a "secret group" (Facebook's designation), which means ONLY members can see it. It would be by invitation only, so choose a trusted individual to start the group and send the invitations. Best of all, therefore, no trolls. Anyone who wanted to join would need to send the trusted individual their email address. That's all. It's easy. Send me a WU message if you need more info. I started one for the Northeast, and it has been great in the storm that's just winding down here. All members can post photos and graphics, etc., too. Very cool format. Folks who aren't keen on Facebook can even register with Facebook using their blog name and only use Facebook for the group.

PS: If you start a group, please send me an invitation. Use this email address: jschulte at together dot net (no caps and no spaces). Thanks!

And thanks to ALL of you for the years of information, banter, education and at times life saving and timely news. Take care and be well! Peace. ♡
The incoming National Hurricane Center director wants to call them super hurricanes? That doesn't roll off the tongue for me like super typhoon. Can we can them supercanes? Or superhurcanes?

The third reason why she won't add a category 6 amused me: "we couldn’t use a Category 6 anyway, since some wise guys at Weather Underground trademarked the term.”

They're wise all right. That's why we call them homo sapiens (wise man).
Quoting 87. Envoirment:










Looks like the start of April is going to be trouble in regards to severe weather!


Yeah really, most storm tracks stay far enough north of us that we only get a slight chance at most. For us, well just west of me im in Baton Rouge, a level 4 severe that is as large as what the spc has outlined is concerning...
Quoting 83. weathermanwannabe:

Good Afternoon Folks. Nice to see the first female head of the NHC. Best of luck to her and glad to see that she recognizes the issue as to climate change and stronger hurricanes. Record warm SST's in recent years in the waters near-around the Bahamas will be a persistent issue in the future for storms on approach to the Bahamas and South Florida in the right low shear conditions as well as storms going into the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel or Florida Straights.

Her name is unbearably dickensian, though. Sometimes I think: "...all this.....'goings on'... it can't possibly be real, can it?"

If it is, then I would like to think that in some sort of super-reality outside of time, that in some specially dedicated gallery, someone shall have put together a collection of the stupid looks on the faces of all denial types ...snapshots of the exact moment when they finally 'get it'. Maybe it will be the day when it is 85 degrees in Chicago on New Year's Day. Or their west side Jacksonville neighborhood gets washed away in a Cat 5+. Or their Missouri farmland bakes in a month of 115+ temps with no rain.

Or maybe, it's not so much the looks on their faces from the outside that would make a superb collection, but rather, snapshots of their consciousness 'from the inside'. ... that bowel-emptying realization that many of the parameters that were being counted on as sure bets 'melt away into the air'.

Ah well, happy trails to all.
Quoting 87. Envoirment:










Looks like the start of April is going to be trouble in regards to severe weather!

It's sure been quite the severe season so far with near record to record breaking tornado numbers so far and April looks to continue that trend. Definitely quite the change from the past few years where tornado season had been very quiet.
"Gail Spinner" :)
terrible weather in columbia widespread severe flooding. its interesting the floods are moving north out of peru into columbia and maybe soon into central america.
Kind of fun to see how many people got snookered today. :-) And also how many have either totally misunderestimated the change to the blog or have given up because something might be different.

Sad!!!
I hope this blog going away is also an April Fools joke...
7.2 Los Angeles
Quoting 101. bryanfromkyleTX:

7.2 Los Angeles


nop nothing on the news



It was 73 years ago this day My Father and the 6th Marine Division Hit the Beach at Okinawa, April 1, Sunday, Easter 1945.



Semper Fi' to the 6th Marine Division






Quoting 11. daddyjames:

And wash - this is not partisanship.

If any individual, regardless of party, had won the presidency and had:

(1) indirect/direct ties with a foreign power determined to undermine our democracy;
(2) benefited from a foreign power exerting an information campaign to influence, not only the general election, but the primary elections as well;
(3) at least two individuals heading their campaign on the payroll of other nations neither of which had registered as foreign agents with the US government as required by law;
(4) nominated one of them to a highly sensitive position where that had access to top secret information while on the payroll of a foreign power;
(5) come into office promising to look out for all the people of the nation and then do the exact opposite;
(6) consistently, blatantly and unashamedly flat out lied and continues to do so;
(7) relied on misogyny and racism to incite support for his candidacy;
(8) openly threatened to destroy segments of the "Administrative State" that are designed to protect all Americans and provide support for those less fortunate in our society in the name of further control exerted by corporate entities;
(9) nominated individuals who are anti-science, anti-reason, and have expressed the desire to destroy or eliminate the very agencies in which they are in charge.
(10) financial ties to foreign banks and individuals that are directly involved in, and working for, the corrupt head of another nation
(11) refused to provide any evidence that their personal finances are not affected by the decisions being made while in office;
(12) violated the law as written in the constitution regarding business transactions involving their companies that they solely own.

I would virulently be opposed to that individual as well.



Nice. You should have posted this under your Notorious handle, methinks.
Quoting 60. HurriHistory:



For those who don't know, TSR and CSU stand for........?

I work for the government, so I find this Acronym Finder website handy:

www.acronymfinder.com/
Chair of House Science Committee Says the Journal ‘Science’ Is Not Objective

Chairman Lamar Smith dismissed commentary presented during testimony on climate change because it came from the journal Science — one of the oldest and most prestigious scientific publications in existence.
BTW, it's a beautiful spring day here. A break from the rain. We're getting the spring winds now, which means it's around 60 but feels much colder with a 30-knot wind ripping out of the northwest from over the ocean. Should me more or less like this until June. Yeah, our weather is really boring mostly.

Fortunately, my porch faces south so it's ten degrees warmer and not windy, which is perfect.

I really hope this community doesn't go away with the change. I've been a member since 1969 and I love this site. I've learned a lot.

As a parting gift, can someone help me? I'm an Earth Scientist and meteorology and climatology are more of a hobby, so I know something about them. But I don't understand when people talk about storms "training". I mean, I kind of understand that they are building and getting worse. But, is there someone who could briefly explain what is meant by storms training? I'd be much obliged. Thanks.
Quoting 106. no1der:

Chair of House Science Committee Says the Journal Science Is Not Objective

Chairman Lamar Smith dismissed commentary presented during testimony on climate change because it came from the journal Science one of the oldest and most prestigious scientific publications in existence.


Every time I see His name or Image I lose a IQ pernt'.

Quoting 107. RedwoodCoast:

BTW, it's a beautiful spring day here. A break from the rain. We're getting the spring winds now, which means it's around 60 but feels much colder with a 30-knot wind ripping out of the northwest from over the ocean. Should me more or less like this until June. Yeah, our weather is really boring mostly.

Fortunately, my porch faces south so it's ten degrees warmer and not windy, which is perfect.

I really hope this community doesn't go away with the change. I've been a member since 1969 and I love this site. I've learned a lot.

As a parting gift, can someone help me? I'm an Earth Scientist and meteorology and climatology are more of a hobby, so I know something about them. But I don't understand when people talk about storms "training". I mean, I kind of understand that they are building and getting worse. But, is there someone who could briefly explain what is meant by storms training? I'd be much obliged. Thanks.



Training means that individual storms form and move over the same areas for extended periods of time leading to prodigious rainfall amounts.
Posted earlier congratulating Gail Spinner as the first female head of NHC then headed out with the family for the day and just saw your comments directing me back to post 1; I missed it..............Lol.
@107
T-storm training

visual- Imagine a huge moving freight train with boxcars full of rain flying over your house. Every boxcar is a t-storm. The stationary weather front is the train tracks. So the train of boxcars dumps rain on your house every time a boxcar passes overhead

werds - "to train on something" is to target it, so you can think of it that way too. The training effect of having a line of storms targeted at or 'trained' on a particular spot.

"to train"----"to aim at an object or objective : as in "He trained his camera on the deer."

"The line of storms was trained on my city, and we had bad flash flooding everywhere."
Quoting 108. Patrap:



Every time I see His name or Image I lose a IQ pernt'.


Judging by your spelling, you've lost quite a few. :)
Death toll climbs to 154 after three rivers in Colombia’s Putumayo break their banks

After a month of intense rainfall across Colombia, tragedy struck Mocoa, the capital of the Putumayo department around 1:00 am Saturday when three major rivers broke their banks causing an avalanche in which 154 people have died.

Link
Integrity Officer

seems to me one will be needed for every dept in this admin
Quoting 110. daddyjames:



Training means that individual storms form and move over the same areas for extended periods of time leading to prodigious rainfall amounts.

Thanks everyone. You've confirmed my suspicions. I guess I was hoping for a more detailed/scientific explanation of what happens.

So, a favorable situation sets up, maybe a front, and the moisture hits the spot and just dumps? Sort of like an orographic effect? A barrier that storms hit, and start "training".

I'm still not understanding that word.
# 113

I passed the wu edit, so plttttttt'






The Climate Change Refugee Problem, Part II: India
By: Portlight , 12:29 PM CDT on March 31, 2017

This is the second part of a four-part series focusing on Global Climate Change and its impact on human lives and the increasing number of climate change refugees society will have to deal with. In this entry, we will explore India and it's flow of refugees from the rural farmland areas into the larger cities.


As in Part One, the human condition is reeling from nature’s assault on a way of life. A way of life practiced for thousands of years in India. Man’s role in the warming of a entire planet is still being debated in national capitals across the free world as a tactic of stalling to act on the greatest threat to humans this day.

Climate change denial is a cop out. It matters not one iota to these humans caught up in a condition of suffering and migration. When one is on the move from climate change that forced one away from their livelihood, a reckoning of sort is in play. A realization that life for them will be different, forever, is a sad tale of where we as a planet stand today.

Patrick Pearson Sr.


Quoting 117. RedwoodCoast:


Thanks everyone. You've confirmed my suspicions. I guess I was hoping for a more detailed/scientific explanation of what happens.

So, a favorable situation sets up, maybe a front, and the moisture hits the spot and just dumps? Sort of like an orographic effect? A barrier that storms hit, and start "training".

I'm still not understanding that word.


What suspicions were confirmed?
There is an instability that exists in the atmosphere that allows storms to develop and, because of the prevailing winds in the atmosphere, move over the same locations over a period of time that allows for significant accumulation of precipitation.
Quoting 106. no1der:

Chair of House Science Committee Says the Journal ‘Science’ Is Not Objective

Chairman Lamar Smith dismissed commentary presented during testimony on climate change because it came from the journal Science — one of the oldest and most prestigious scientific publications in existence.

What did you expect? He's pretty clearly anti-science. Of course he would say that. Doesn't make it true.
119. RedwoodCoast

Thanks, we are going on our April WU-cation and will check in from there,..

maybe,

Maybe not.


.....weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee'

Quoting 121. daddyjames:



What suspicions were confirmed?
There is an instability that exists in the atmosphere that allows storms to develop and, because of the prevailing winds in the atmosphere, move over the same locations over a period of time that allows for significant accumulation of precipitation.

Yes. Exactly.
Quoting 123. Patrap:

119. RedwoodCoast

Thanks, we are going on our April WU-cation and will check in from there,..

maybe,

Maybe not.


.....weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee'



You be good. Look forward to hearing from you again.
Why Thank's Dude'...I'll do that fo sho'



Quoting 59. Patrap:

Personal blogs end and are archived without comments.

Dats it.

The featured ones continue using the disqus system for comments. This format ends....in 35 hours.





exact time too complete removal is 41hrs 47mins EDT
give yer take a bit either way
Quoting 108. Patrap:



Every time I see His name or Image I lose a IQ pernt'.




The whole country lost a pernt this week when he spake as chairman of the committee hearings.
Quoting 124. RedwoodCoast:


Yes. Exactly.


Since you are an Earth Scientist, you can think of it as the atmospheric equivalent of how the Hawaiian island chain was formed (over a longer time frame of course).
Thanks Dr. Masters. for the continuing blog. I'm a long time lurker (over 10 years) and won't be joining disgus or viewing comments anymore, I'm almost certain. If you're interested in online privacy, follow developments at the electronic frontier foundation's website, it's a good place to start-- eff.org.

Thanks for all the links to great weather sites over the years and all the excellent fun posts---and happy hunting.
Isn't it a pity
Now, isn't it a shame
How we break each other's hearts
And cause each other pain
How we take each other's love
Without thinking anymore
Forgetting to give back
Isn't it a pity

Some things take so long
But how do I explain
When not too many people
Can see we're all the same
And because of all their tears
Their eyes can't hope to see
The beauty that surrounds them
Isn't it a pity

Isn't it a pity
Isn't is a shame
How we break each other's hearts
And cause each other pain
How we take each other's love
Without thinking anymore
Forgetting to give back
Isn't it a pity

Forgetting to give back
Isn't it a pity
Forgetting to give back
Now, isn't it a pity

[6 times, fade the 6th:]
What a pity
What a pity, pity, pity
What a pity
What a pity, pity, pity







Quoting 127. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

exact time too complete removal is 41hrs 47mins EDT


Someone obviously doesn't understand the concept of time.
Quoting 126. Patrap:

Why Thank's Dude'...I'll do that fo sho'





Hey that's just,like, your opinion man.

You seem like a cool dude. You're lucky I don't live nearby or I'd try to meet you. That said, if you ever come to the redwood coast, I'd be honored.
Quoting 135. RedwoodCoast:


Hey that's just,l ike, your opinion man.

You seem like a cool dude. You're lucky I don't live nearby or I'd try to meet you. That said, if you ever come to the redwood coast, I'd be honored.


Was in San Francisco in December so I'll file that for da fucha. The AGU conference is here in December. 40,000 Scientist in NOLA.

What could possibly happen?




Quoting 134. WU_5702642:



Someone obviously doesn't understand the concept of time.


Someone obviously thinks that they are absolutely perfect and have no flaws.
Quoting 134. WU_5702642:



Someone obviously doesn't understand the concept of time.


its all a guess but 2 hrs after they arrive too work in san fran on monday morning will be 10 am
I figure by then they will be ready too do it
and 10 am san fran time Monday morning will be 1 pm Toronto time EDT
from now till then
it is 40hrs 24 mins from now my time till the blogs are gone
Quoting 137. isothunder67:



Someone obviously thinks that they are absolutely perfect and have no flaws.


True dat
Well the tone here is caution to concern with this next system.

The SPC has the whole thing coming thru with a big uppercut.

Texas Tomorrow then east thru Monday afternoon here.

Be advised.

Upper Jefferson Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Watches & Warnings
Flash Flood Watch
Issued: 3:01 PM CDT Apr. 1, 2017 – National Weather Service

... Flash Flood Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through
Monday afternoon...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Louisiana and 
southern Mississippi, including the following areas, in 
southeast Louisiana, Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, 
East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, lower Jefferson, lower 
Lafourche, lower Plaquemines, lower St. Bernard, lower 
Terrebonne, northern Tangipahoa, Orleans, Pointe Coupee, 
southern Tangipahoa, St. Charles, St. Helena, St. James, St. 
John The Baptist, St. Tammany, upper Jefferson, upper 
Lafourche, upper Plaquemines, upper St. Bernard, upper 
Terrebonne, Washington, West Baton Rouge, and West Feliciana. 
In southern Mississippi, Amite, Hancock, Pearl River, Pike, 
Walthall, and Wilkinson.

* From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon

* heavy rainfall from strong to severe thunderstorms is expected
to produce storm total accumulations generally between 3 and 6
inches from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Some
locally higher amounts may be possible from storms that pass
over the same location repeatedly.

* If rain rates exceed 2 inches per hour then rapid ponding of
water may result in urban and poorly drained areas. Rainfall
accumulation of 3 to 6 inches will result in rises on area
rivers and streams. Depending on how much rain actually does
occur, some minor river flooding is possible by Sunday night or
Monday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

24/rr




Numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday into early Monday. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes are possible. Heavy rain of 3 to 6 inches will also occur with locally higher amounts possible. An enhanced risk covers Baton Rouge and areas west of a line from McComb to New Orleans. A slight risk covers areas just to the east with marginal risk along the Mississippi Gulf Coast.
gonna love the new format l will finally get ip ban capabilities
so those trolls that like to make 100 names will no longer be able to do that anymore
cause ip's never change just like disqus the main disqust id never changes either it can id your computer and that tells us if it is the same person all the time using different names or emails

so have fun for the next 40hrs and 20 mins or so
Quoting 103. Patrap:




It was 73 years ago this day My Father and the 6th Marine Division Hit the Beach at Okinawa, April 1, Sunday, Easter 1945.



Semper Fi' to the 6th Marine Division







Semper Fi'
Semper Fi'
Quoting 142. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

gonna love the new format l will finally get ip ban capabilities
so those trolls that like to make 100 names will no longer be able to do that anymore
cause ip's never change just like disqus the main disqust id never changes either it can id your computer and that tells us if it is the same person all the time using different names or emails

so have fun for the next 40hrs and 20 mins or so


You should not have said anything, there are ways to mask ips . . .
This blog format nearing the end of it's life. New format incoming, let's see what it brings.
Big Duke NOLA 7 requesting a Tower flyby Keeper'...

O snap'





Old English word of the day: Aprēlis mōnaþ - the month of April. Pronounced "ah-pray-lees moh-nath". Image from the page for April in The Golf Book, a calendar from c. 1540. The September page has the earliest known depiction of people playing golf.



September

Quoting 146. daddyjames:



You should not have said anything, there are ways to mask ips . . .

its ok its not the only feature or option
most site nowadays are doing the comp id thing
its the only way to stop the trolling
the changing emails to make new names
you can have 100's of email accounts now a days
but all emails will be linked back to the sole individual computer
only way too do it would be to have 100 computers running at the same time
good luck with that
I'm going chasing tomorrow! Thinking we'll hit up east Texas or maybe just above Lake Charles, at least for now. Things are subject to change, but wish me luck! I'll definitely be careful!
Quoting 151. KoritheMan:

I'm going chasing tomorrow! Thinking we'll hit up east Texas or maybe just above Lake Charles, at least for now. Things are subject to change, but wish me luck! I'll definitely be careful!


Wear a Helmet'....

Buckle Up.


Miniatures of the twelve zodiac signs from the Hunterian Psalter, c. 1170 AD, England.

Quoting 151. KoritheMan:

I'm going chasing tomorrow! Thinking we'll hit up east Texas or maybe just above Lake Charles, at least for now. Things are subject to change, but wish me luck! I'll definitely be careful!


be careful follow rules of the road while driving good luck hope ya capture some nice ones

Quoting 150. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its ok its not the only feature or option
most site nowadays are doing the comp id thing
its the only way to stop the trolling
the changing emails to make new names
you can have 100's of email accounts now a days
but all emails will be linked back to the sole individual computer
only way too do it would be to have 100 computers running at the same time
good luck with that



Quoting 153. BaltimoreBrian:

Miniatures of the twelve zodiac signs from the Hunterian Psalter, c. 1170 AD, England.


I am the 7th one
The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Coleman County in west central Texas...

* Until 845 PM CDT

* At 812 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
was located near Voss, or 11 miles southwest of Coleman, moving
east at 20 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Spotter confirmed large tornado on the ground.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
Santa Anna around 845 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Mozelle, Fisk and Shields.

Another Old English name for April was Eastermonað, 'in which comes the glorious season for the comfort of men'. Image from the Shaftesbury Psalter, second quarter of 12th century AD.

Seascape in gale, Trwyn y Bwa, Pembrokeshire, Wales, March 30, 2017.

Quoting 150. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its ok its not the only feature or option
most site nowadays are doing the comp id thing
its the only way to stop the trolling
the changing emails to make new names
you can have 100's of email accounts now a days
but all emails will be linked back to the sole individual computer
only way too do it would be to have 100 computers running at the same time
good luck with that


Only if they check in from the same spot. Tablets and laptops receive "new ips" whenever they link to a new WI-FI location.


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
402 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

Short term...
a nice evening and overnight before the weather transitions to a
strong convective regime during the day Sunday. Temperatures
tonight should be on the mild side but may nudge upward a few
degrees prior to sunrise on warm air advection off the Gulf.
Sunday still appears to be shaping up to be a hyperactive weather
day. Low pressure system currently spinning over central New
Mexico will continue to dig a bit more while moving into Texas
this evening.

This will induce warm fronto-genesis across the Gulf
that will move inland early Sunday, bringing a Focal Point upon
which a strengthening onshore flow gradient will converge.
Increasing Omega and upper level divergence over the area along
with low level convergence on a tightening onshore gradient during
the afternoon and evening hours Sunday. It was decided through a
collaborative effort that the European model (ecmwf) is the preferred solution on
timing and location of the heavier impact weather, which is
decidedly more south of the GFS solution. The general quantitative precipitation forecast for the
period has been maintained at 3 to 6 inches with locally higher
amounts possible due to any echo training that may likely occur.



Regarding severe weather potential, it does appear all modes will
be possible given the degree of low level speed and some
directional shear to develop for tornado potential along with
steep lapse rates and storm top divergence for adequate hail
generation. The chap output on both the NAM and GFS does ping on a
high risk situation, showing a Ricks index at or above 200, which
is typically a particularly dangerous situation range. If model
soundings are correct, these values show potential of EF-4
tornadoes with rotational velocities close to 200 kt, 95 kt gust
potential and Golf Ball to baseball sized hail potential.
Be
mindful these are just potentials at this point, but does shed
light on the moderate risk area currently depicted by Storm Prediction Center over southeast
Texas and SW Louisiana on the day 2 outlook. One degree of
uncertainty will be how much precipitation loading takes place to
diminish the severity threat? It does appear in the chap guidance
that the severe weather threat is greatest at onset and
transitions to heavy rain as the event unfolds.

Weather should wind down with eventual frontal passage Monday
afternoon from west to east. There will likely be some fog
considerations on a flat pressure and wind gradient becoming
established over residual abundant soil moisture Monday night into
Tuesday.

Long term...
weak high pressure collapses during the day Tuesday with onshore
flow intensifying ahead of the next vigorous plains system to move
through the mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday. This will usher
cooler and drier Continental air southward for Thursday morning
that remains in place through next Saturday. This cool down could
be a below normal period of temperatures to offset the lengthy
stretch of warmer than normal conditions that have been in place
for quite some time now. 24/rr

&&

Aviation...
VFR conditions will persist at all of the terminals through 06z
tonight. After 06z, cloud cover will be on the increase in response
to an approaching storm system moving through Texas.
Expect to see ceilings fall into MVFR range of 1500 to 2500 for all
of the terminals by 15z tomorrow morning. Convection could begin to
impact the terminals after 18z tomorrow with greater risk closer to
00z. Will include some thunderstorms in the vicinity wording to reflect this risk. 32

&&


Quoting 154. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



be careful follow rules of the road while driving good luck hope ya capture some nice ones




If I'm reading that thing right, all Harris county will get is rain. With the severe threat being to the north and east of the area. Tell me I'm right, KEPPEROFTHEGATE!
Quoting 156. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I am the 7th one


I'm a Taurus, I think.?.?.? My B-day is in 26 days (27th Apr)
Yesterday the strangest thing happened, it was gloriously sunny and bereft of rain for a home football match! Nothing like standing, screaming, chanting, and drinking with 40,000 of your closest friends. Sadly it was a 0-0 draw between the Seattle Sounders and the new expansion team Atlanta FC. At least we took a point...

The rain has made many a resident just a little weary this year... depending on how you define mild, Seattle has had only 3 sunny and mild days since November. We've had 16.61 inches of rain in Feb-March making it the wettest such period on record.

Even Dr. Cliff Mass has a blog about yesterdays gloriousness, as well as some interesting statistics regarding our "depressing" winter...

Also, Grothar and Astro you've got WU mail (if it still works...)
I'm really, really bad about checking it =(
am starting too think we could see a high risk issued for sunday
Only can post this on April Fool's day:

The Nantucket Sea-Serpent Hoax (1937) More photographs inside link.





Oh my!





Quoting 160. daddyjames:



Only if they check in from the same spot. Tablets and laptops receive "new ips" whenever they link to a new WI-FI location.
true but each device comes with the makers device id unique to that device why you think the makers put such an id so it can track its every move
Quoting 230. DeepSeaRising:



Looking bad Pureet, real bad. Cape and wind fields will be quite conducive with the Gulf inflow to possibly have a sizable outbreak. Discreet cells and clockwise curved low-level hodographs are just not a good combination. Hail to baseball and larger, likely outbreak of tornadoes, and possibly a few strong ones. Houston is under the gun and you may want to be very vigilant. Like the upper Midwest this area of Texas if prone to some busts from the SPC so it's not written in stone. But I might park my car in the garage or at a parking garage all the same. Stay safe and just play it cool like you always do in these situations.

So what you're telling me, DEEPSEARISING, is that, as far as electricity for my house goes, forget it. Count on a huge outbreak of bad storms over my city and count on days or week in the dark. Right?
Quoting 167. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

true but each device comes with the makers device id unique to that device why you think the makers put such an id so it can track its every move


You can get around that as well, but usually involves deleting a few apps that people deem "necessary".
Quoting 162. pureet1948:



If I'm reading that thing right, all Harris county will get is rain. With the severe threat being to the north and east of the area. Tell me I'm right, KEPPEROFTHEGATE!
possible but also possible it could be off just a little remember forecasting is not an exact science and should be checked a few hrs leading up too the event
Quoting 169. daddyjames:



You can get around that as well, but usually involves deleting a few apps that people deem "necessary".
also voids any warr service for that device if tampered with
Quoting 164. Seattleite:

Yesterday the strangest thing happened, it was gloriously sunny and bereft of rain for a home football match! Nothing like standing, screaming, chanting, and drinking with 40,000 of your closest friends. Sadly it was a 0-0 draw between the Seattle Sounders and the new expansion team Atlanta FC. At least we took a point...

The rain has made many a resident just a little weary this year... depending on how you define mild, Seattle has had only 3 sunny and mild days since November. We've had 16.61 inches of rain in Feb-March making it the wettest such period on record.

Even Dr. Cliff Mass has a blog about yesterdays gloriousness, as well as some interesting statistics regarding our "depressing" winter...

Also, Grothar and Astro you've got WU mail (if it still works...)
I'm really, really bad about checking it =(
Quoting 164. Seattleite:

Yesterday the strangest thing happened, it was gloriously sunny and bereft of rain for a home football match! Nothing like standing, screaming, chanting, and drinking with 40,000 of your closest friends. Sadly it was a 0-0 draw between the Seattle Sounders and the new expansion team Atlanta FC. At least we took a point...

The rain has made many a resident just a little weary this year... depending on how you define mild, Seattle has had only 3 sunny and mild days since November. We've had 16.61 inches of rain in Feb-March making it the wettest such period on record.

Even Dr. Cliff Mass has a blog about yesterdays gloriousness, as well as some interesting statistics regarding our "depressing" winter...

Also, Grothar and Astro you've got WU mail (if it still works...)
I'm really, really bad about checking it =(
So you like our team ehh...Atlanta is celebrating our new team by coming out in force to evry game local and watching it live at my bar. Stop by at the Brewhouse Cafe in Atlanta if you are around. (Shameless plug)
Sorry for the double quote, didn't mean too. Weather related, wonder about Monday for Atlanta, system rolling through again. Hope it doesn't evaporate before hitting me like they almost always do.
This calendar page for April from the St. Omer Book of Hours (1318 - 1325 AD) is the same as April 2017. What year was it? Don't forget that in 1752 England skipped forward 10 days when adopting the Gregorian calendar.



Quoting 162. pureet1948:



If I'm reading that thing right, all Harris county will get is rain. With the severe threat being to the north and east of the area. Tell me I'm right, KEPPEROFTHEGATE!

No, Huston is still a large risk for significant severe weather. I don't know why they're not showing the red over Huston on that graphic, as Histoonis under moderate risk according to SPC.
Quoting 168. pureet1948:
em


So what you're telling me, DEEPSEARISING, is that, as far as electricity for my house goes, forget it. Count on a huge outbreak of bad storms over my city and count on days or week in the dark. Right?
It all depends on where the strongest storms end up. Remember even in the most severe of outbreaks, not everyone gets the worst case senerio so It's possible all Huston gets is rain, but you could see significant weather (The reason Why SPC has a moderate risk out for the Huston area) and power outages. Prepare like you're going to have the worst case senerio, so you're prepared if it does happen. Even if it busts, it's better safe than sorry.
Community Participation
612 comments and 13 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 461 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 146,465 comments in all blogs.





Quoting 172. aldente:

So you like our team ehh...Atlanta is celebrating our new team by coming out in force to evry game local and watching it live at my bar. Stop by at the Brewhouse Cafe in Atlanta if you are around. (Shameless plug)


I'd be happy to stop by if I'm ever in Atlanta, although it might be a little awkward with me decked out in Sounders gear. =) I do have practice visiting the enemies though, my best friend is a founding member of TACO (Timbers Army Covert Ops - Portland Timbers group for people living behind enemy lines in Seattle)

Congrats on getting an MLS team!
(,execute,alpha,bravo,charlie,)

1,1A,1//2B

Quoting 168. pureet1948:

Quoting 230. DeepSeaRising:



Looking bad Pureet, real bad. Cape and wind fields will be quite conducive with the Gulf inflow to possibly have a sizable outbreak. Discreet cells and clockwise curved low-level hodographs are just not a good combination. Hail to baseball and larger, likely outbreak of tornadoes, and possibly a few strong ones. Houston is under the gun and you may want to be very vigilant. Like the upper Midwest this area of Texas if prone to some busts from the SPC so it's not written in stone. But I might park my car in the garage or at a parking garage all the same. Stay safe and just play it cool like you always do in these situations.

So what you're telling me, DEEPSEARISING, is that, as far as electricity for my house goes, forget it. Count on a huge outbreak of bad storms over my city and count on days or week in the dark. Right?


You're freaking kidding, right? This is some kind of late April Fools panic comment?
hey so created a disqus account

first thing they ask "What would you like to do with Disqus?"

what should I pick

"I want to comment on sites'
I want to download Disqus on my site"

I'm guessing I pick the first

and then what next
how will I find Wunderground
The clarity of the ink colors on some of those texts is absolutely astonishing to me. After, what, 7, 8, 900 years? WOW.
Just wondering if the site is ever going to add back the storm tracks option on the Wundermap. A great tool for helping with our local forecasting. The symbols are still in the legend, but no box to click on in the layers. Does anyone know?
daddyjames, unfortunately the death toll in Colombia is rising rapidly. Updated 11:02 p.m., EDT:

Colombia: 193 dead after rivers overflow, toppling homes
Quoting 182. GreyJewel:

The clarity of the ink colors on some of those texts is absolutely astonishing to me. After, what, 7, 8, 900 years? WOW.
Yep. Using parchment instead of wood based paper with acid in it helps.
I thought someone would have figured out which year the calendar in comment #174 is for. elioe is probably asleep though. Asking Grothar is cheating! ;)
More than 150 dead as overflowing rivers rip through city

BOGOTA, Colombia -- An avalanche of water from three overflowing rivers swept through a small city in Colombia while people slept, destroying homes and killing at least 193 unsuspecting residents.




Really sad situation in Colombia.


Here we have had a good soaking rain all day. That combined with last Tuesday's dousing will really help with the dryness/drought that has been plaguing OK.

Meanwhile the heat in India is pretty high when:

Parched snake quenches thirst with bottle of water


What was the reason for killing this blog where most of us have here for over a decade? Wonderphotos are already gone. Was this a financial move or a technical problem they could not overcome. I'll miss the comments from long time members with thousands of comments. Hope to here from you guys on the other side. Thanks for the info from real weather geeks, I feel like I'm losing family.
Well guys, I'll catch you on the flip side.

The Internet has changed as the bar for getting online has.. lowered and more.. people have shown up to add their 2¢. It's always been the wild west out here at the electronic frontier, but now it's.. nastier than ever. So I don't like disqus much, but I can see the need for something to change. Paid, full-time, and aggressive moderation would also help even though it would curtail some free discussion.. but there's a lot of people out there that just don't know how to act right. Given the politically charged nature of some of this blog's major topics, to save the discussion from complete meltdown requires some severe measures. I (purely) speculate that the axing of the member blogs is also partially related to the difficulty of policing all of that glorious mess. Anyway, it's been cool. I just wish I had created an account long ago when I first started lurking.
Quoting 180. WU_5702642:



You're freaking kidding, right? This is some kind of late April Fools panic comment?

Um, no. That's just Pureet.
Quoting 181. wunderkidcayman:

hey so created a disqus account

first thing they ask "What would you like to do with Disqus?"

what should I pick

"I want to comment on sites'
I want to download Disqus on my site"

I'm guessing I pick the first

and then what next
how will I find Wunderground


Wunderground will be here - just that the comments will be handled by DISQUS. As for other folks "blogs" a site has be created on DISQUS, I think it may be one of the channels you have to follow?
Here's one for you BB and Gro (cause you were there).

Quoting 174. BaltimoreBrian:

This calendar page for April from the St. Omer Book of Hours (1318 - 1325 AD) is the same as April 2017. What year was it? Don't forget that in 1752 England skipped forward 10 days when adopting the Gregorian calendar.







I know, I know!!!!!!
Quoting 193. daddyjames:



Wunderground will be here - just that the comments will be handled by DISQUS. As for other folks "blogs" a site has be created on DISQUS, I think it may be one of the channels you have to follow?


ok I see
Quoting 176. Patrap:

Community Participation
612 comments and 13 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 461 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 146,465 comments in all blogs.








I remember that episode. I believe that is Diana Muldaur. The creature inside was so hideous, that one went insane just looking at it, but it was actually the gentlest of creatures.
Quoting 194. daddyjames:

Here's one for you BB and Gro (cause you were there).




The first Interstate Highway




Quoting 181. wunderkidcayman:

hey so created a disqus account

first thing they ask "What would you like to do with Disqus?"

what should I pick

"I want to comment on sites'
I want to download Disqus on my site"

I'm guessing I pick the first

and then what next
how will I find Wunderground
wait till 1 pm Monday EDT come to this site log in with disqus credentials too make your comments on the posted topic that's it
Quoting 184. Flyingcactus:

Just wondering if the site is ever going to add back the storm tracks option on the Wundermap. A great tool for helping with our local forecasting. The symbols are still in the legend, but no box to click on in the layers. Does anyone know?


Try this?
Link
Same as Post 201 - but numbered. And there is a Yellow-bellied sapsucker.



For the Key, go here: Mesmerizing Migration Map: Which Species Is Which?
Quoting 199. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

wait till 1 pm Monday EDT come to this site log in with disqus credentials too make your comments on the posted topic that's it


ok will do
As of April 3rd, all the features listed below will become unavailable and will be removed from Weather Underground’s website and mobile applications.


◾Member blogs

◾WUMail

◾SMS alerts



Features and products that have recently been removed include:
◾NOAA Weather Radio

◾Aviation
Quoting 204. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

As of April 3rd, all the features listed below will become unavailable and will be removed from Weather Underground’s website and mobile applications.


◾Member blogs

◾WUMail

◾SMS alerts



Features and products that have recently been removed include:
◾NOAA Weather Radio

◾Aviation



Thats unfortunate, I wanted the SMS alerts component but they never fixed it.

I am surprised that they are removing member blogs.

Anyone have a link to whatever their end game is? I feel like I should move away towards another weather website.
Volcanocafe (A blog inhabited by volcano lovers) had a brilliant April fools post yesterday that I think people here will appreciate.

Link
Quoting 205. Midweststorm:



Thats unfortunate, I wanted the SMS alerts component but they never fixed it.

I am surprised that they are removing member blogs.

Anyone have a link to whatever their end game is? I feel like I should move away towards another weather website.


We know you’ll likely have questions, so we’ve created FAQ pages to address your concerns, which are accessible via the links provided. We sincerely appreciate your understanding and continued support throughout this transition.

As part of this transition, Category 6 will get a new look. On April 3, 2017 all posts by Jeff Masters, Bob Henson and WU featured bloggers will move to Category 6 – meaning all our articles will be accessible in one place. Be sure to check wunderground.com on April 3rd to see the new and improved format. If you would like to help shape the future of WU products, please provide your feedback in this quick survey

Link
Quoting 199. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

wait till 1 pm Monday EDT come to this site log in with disqus credentials too make your comments on the posted topic that's it


It has not been confirmed by dr m or any one else that we are moving too a disqus format We could be moving too some in else We will find out Monday on what are new format will be call in tell then take it has a grain of salt has nothing been confirmed that a disqus format is coming
Good morning tracking severe weather in Texas.

From the NWS in Austin/San Antonio:

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL EDWARDS AND NORTHERN REAL COUNTIES...

At 406 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Vance, or 13 miles southeast of Rocksprings, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Prade Ranch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

The cell is really showing some rotation on the state radar loop:

212. VR46L
Haven't been around the blogs much ...was very surprised at the closure of the backroom ... Good to see old friends still around ! Had some fun times here ;) My Life has been very busy recently .... But hope to call by in the season more frequently !



nice blob over central Texas
Quoting 204. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

As of April 3rd, all the features listed below will become unavailable and will be removed from Weather Underground’s website and mobile applications.


◾Member blogs

◾WUMail

◾SMS alerts



Features and products that have recently been removed include:
◾NOAA Weather Radio

◾Aviation

This almost sounds like an April Fools post. Can't believe member blogs and private messaging functionality is being nixed.


It would be nice if this pans out. We haven't seen temps like these since February.
Link to San Antonio radar image

Wish I knew how to post the image. Image auto-updates.
"The clarity of the ink colors on some of those texts is absolutely astonishing to me. After, what, 7, 8, 900 years? WOW."

Remember that before 1450 (565 years ago) there was very limited printing from wood blocks, in one color, usually. The pages Brian posted from earlier than that were hand-written and hand drawn with paints, one page at a time. And in many cases the images have been processed to enhance the faded colors. Printing technology changed the world and how we think about communication.
??????
Sunrise on the Texas storms, loop
Quoting 217. wartsttocs:



It would be nice if this pans out. We haven't seen temps like these since February.


That one month of winter in march was killing you?
Quoting 223. daddyjames:



That one month of winter in march was killing you?


Yes, February was such a tease.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 171. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

also voids any warr service for that device if tampered with


That is for branded computers (Dell, HP, Lenovo etc.) I always build my own computers. The primary reason that I do this is to give me better control over the hardware for how I want the system to perform. There are several other advantages for custom building your systems as well.
Quoting 217. wartsttocs:



It would be nice if this pans out. We haven't seen temps like these since February.


Typical April on one or two days in the Mid Atlantic. Some years we get 90+ in April
Patrap, here's a story you might be interested in (or maybe you already know about it). It's about restoring PT-305, the U.S.S. Sudden Jerk at The National World War II Museum there in NOLA. The boat is now offering 90 minute cruises on Lake Pontchartrain on Saturdays.

The decade long $6M effort to put a 70 year old WWII boat back to water.

I love the story and there's some good pictures and videos to go along with it.
:-)