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May 2014: Earth's 2nd Consecutive Warmest Month on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:31 PM GMT on June 23, 2014

May 2014 was Earth's warmest May since records began in 1880, beating the record set in 2010, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. The planet has now had two back-to-back warmest months on record, since NOAA also rated April 2014 as being tied for the warmest April on record. This is the first time Earth has experienced back-to-back warmest months on record since a four-month stretch during March, April, May, and June 2010. Global ocean temperatures during May 2014 were 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average; this ties with June 1998, October 2003, and July 2009 for the greatest departure from average of any month in recorded history. Global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record in May 2014, and the year-to-date January - May period has been the 5th warmest on record for the globe. Global satellite-measured temperatures in May 2014 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 6th or 3rd warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during May was the 6th lowest in the 48-year record.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2014, the warmest May for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. In Europe, Latvia and Norway had their warmest May on record, as did South Korea in Asia. Portions of Central Asia and Australia were also record warm. No record cold was observed. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Notable weather events of May 2014
According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in his May 2014 Global Weather Extremes Summary, an amazing heat wave occurred in China, Japan, and the Koreas the last week of May. Beijing saw its warmest May temperature on record with a 41.1°C (106.0°F) reading on May 30th, and all-time national heat records for the month of May were set for South Korea and China. A remarkable heat wave along the Baltic Sea broke the all time May heat record for Estonia (33.1°C/91.6°F at Kunda on May 19th) and at St. Petersburg, Russia with 33.0°C (91.4°F), also on May 19th. Gambia tied its all-time national heat record (for any month) on May 4th when the temperature rose to 45.5°C (113.9°F) at Kaur.


Figure 2. The deadliest weather disaster of 2014 so far has been the tragic landslide in the Argo District of Badakhshan Province, NE Afghanistan on May 2. Death toll estimates vary widely, from 350 - 2,700. According to Dave's Landslide Blog, the landslide came after prolonged heavy rainfall in the region and occurred in the middle of the day on a Friday, when many people are likely to be at home. The slide occurred in two phases, with an initial slide that buried many people. In the aftermath, many people from local villages went to help, only to be buried by the second landslide. Image credit: BBC correspondent Bilal Sarwary.



Three billion-dollar weather disasters in May 2014
Three billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during May 2014, according to the May 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. The total number of billion-dollar weather disasters through May is ten, which is behind the record-setting pace of 2013, which had thirteen such disasters by the end of May, and ended up with a record 41 such disasters by the end of the year.


Disaster 1. Torrential rains on May 14 - 15 in Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina caused extreme flooding that killed at least 80 people and caused $4.5 billion in damage. The heavy rains were caused by Extratropical Storm Yvette, a strong and slow-moving upper-level low pressure that cut off from the jet stream and lingered over the region for two days, pulling up copious amounts of moisture from the Mediterranean Sea. This aerial view of the flooded area near the Bosnian town of Brcko along the river Sava was taken May 18, 2014. (AP Photo/Bosnia Army)


Disaster 2. Flooding rains in China May 24 - 28 killed 37 people and caused $1.2 billion in damage. In this image we see dark clouds gathering in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province of China on May 22, 2014. Image credit: ChinaFotoPress/ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images.


Disaster 3. An outbreak of severe weather hit the Midwest, Rockies, and Northeast U.S. from May 18 - 23, causing $2.5 billion in damage. In this image taken by wunderphotographer Darhawk, we see a supercell thunderstorm near Denver, Colorado on May 22, 2014 that prompted issuance of a tornado warning.

An El Niño Watch continues
May 2014 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and sea surface temperatures have been hovering near the threshold for El Niño, +0.5°C from average, from late April through June 23. However, the atmosphere has not been behaving like it should during an El Niño event. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)--the difference in surface pressure between Darwin, Australia and the island of Tahiti--tends to drop to negative values during the presence of an El Niño atmosphere, but has been positive over the past 30 days. Heavy thunderstorm activity over Indonesia and near the International Date Line is typically enhanced during an El Niño event, and was near normal at the beginning of June. This activity has picked up over the past week, but must increase substantially before we can say the atmosphere is responding in an El Niño-like fashion. The Madden-Julian Oscillation, a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently weak and disorganized, and will not be a factor in moving conditions towards El Niño this week. NOAA is continuing its El Niño Watch, giving a 70% chance that an El Niño event will occur by the summer, with an 80% chance by the fall. In a June 20 article at Climate Central, Stephen Baxter, a seasonal forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said: “we’re nicely on track for a weak to moderate, but still potentially impactful” El Niño event in the fall to winter months.

Arctic sea ice falls to 3rd lowest May extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during May was the 3rd lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Most impressive weather videos of May 2014


Video 1. One of the most spectacular weather videos taken in May 2014 was of a Low-Precipitation (LP) supercell thunderstorm on May 18, 2014, between Wright and Newcastle, WY. The best footage begins about 0:50 into the clip. The rotation of the thunderstorm is beautifully captured. LP supercells usually form in dry regions, where there might be just enough moisture to form the storm, but not enough moisture to rain very hard. You can usually find the updraft on the rear flank (back) of the storm. On radar, an LP will not show up as a hook echo because there's not enough precipitation within the storm to provide the reflectivity. These storms might not look that strong, but they can pack a punch. LP supercells often produce tornadoes and large hail.


Video 2. An EF-2 tornado with 120 mph winds hit this camp for oil workers just south of Watford City, North Dakota, on May 27, 2014. The tornado injured nine people and damaged or destroyed 15 trailers. Dan Yorgason, who lives in a neighboring workers camp to the one destroyed, filmed the tornado from inside his truck. "The tornado was coming down the hill along our only escape route. There was nowhere for us to go. It was crazy," he said. The contrast of the brown of the lower part of the funnel with the white portion of the upper funnel is particularly striking 2:00 into the video.


Video 3. A severed bridge floats down the Bosna River in Bosnia and Herzegovina on May 14, 2014. Here is a video of the bridge before it was swept away.

Win $100 in this month's wunderground "Climate Lottery"
Every three months, the Weather Channel's Guy Walton runs a "Climate Lottery" in his wunderground blog where players guess U.S. temperatures for the coming three months. Last season's winner earned a free 10-year wunderground membership. This winner of the new contest will pocket a cool $100. Simply go to Guy's blog and pick three numbers between 1 and 120 (with 1 representing the coldest possible ranking and 120 being the highest possible ranking) for June, July, and August 2014 U.S. temperatures, plus a tie-breaker “Power Ball” or overall ranking number for summer 2014. Post your prediction in the comments section of the blog. Picks must be made by midnight EDT July 5th. The National Climatic Data Center’s ranking numbers for summer 2014 will be posted on or shortly after September 15th, 2014.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday, as the tropics are quiet in the Atlantic, and no development is expected this week.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 495. CaribBoy:



Yes... HOT, DRY and HAZY . Also the clouds are very boring to watch.. they are so weak and shallow...


Your weather sure seems to depress you:(
Quoting 499. HurricaneHunterJoe:

I feel your pain! BTW........the rainfund is up to $456.25 U.S. Dollars!


Thank you so much :-) Some parts of the island really need it :

Quoting 498. rmbjoe1954:



Gro, you were a Viking?



I still am.
Quoting 493. Grothar:



I understand it fine. Interesting. I grew up in Norway and I don't ever remember seeing a waterspout.
Apparently that show passed right in front of my niece's house in Arendal, but she was in Washington DC waiting for her flight home. I doubt that sort of weather is common in Norway anywhere.
Quoting 487. CaribBoy:



WOW.... :-((( I will die...



You need two find a new place two live. Like Fl. You be a lot better off all other then that give it a rest all ready no one wants two here you complain about how boring your weather is find a new place two live if you don't like your weather no one wants two here you complain about it 24hrs a day why get out and joy the weather then complaining about it on the blog
As much as I hate the humidity.......I hope for a good monsoon flow this summer into the Southern California mountains and that we have many Thunderstorms! I hope you get many to CaribBoy!
Quoting 505. Tazmanian:




You need two find a new pal two live. Lie Fl. You be a lot better off all other then that give it a rest all ready no one wants two here you complain about how boring your weather is find a new


Geez Taz....isn't that a bit harsh?
Quoting 503. Grothar:




I still am.


Husk at nar vi erobret nordmenn mens plyndring i Norge veien tilbake?

Quoting 501. jrweatherman:



Your weather sure seems to depress you:(


The hardest thing is that I don't see any relief during the coming weeks :







Quoting 500. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Gro's younger brother is Ragnar Lodbrok!


Ha, I never miss the show. Don't mess with us.

A lot of Norwegians sound British when they speak.

Quoting 509. CaribBoy:



The hardest thing is that I don't see any relief during the coming weeks :



How are you in rainfall this year relative to average?
Quoting 507. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Geez Taz....isn't that a bit harsh?


No not at all he dos this same crap evere day on the blog
I don't know why people say we sound like we are singing when we speak. :)

I don't look like this, but he speaks a dialect similar to ours.

514. ryang
I understand how CaribBoy feels. All of the rain avoiding me.

Quoting 512. Tazmanian:



No not at all he dos this same crap evere day on the blog


That's why I made the comment that it seems his weather depresses him.
Quoting Grothar:


Ha, I never miss the show. Don't mess with us.

A lot of Norwegians sound British when they speak.



Just watched that video, nice
Quoting 504. CaneFreeCR:

Apparently that show passed right in front of my niece's house in Arendal, but she was in Washington DC waiting for her flight home. I doubt that sort of weather is common in Norway anywhere.


That is just north of where we lived in Kristiansand. Arendal is quite a beautiful city, and historic.
Quoting 517. tornadodude:



Just watched that video, nice


Yo, I thought you disappeared in Oz or something. How've you've been TD?
Warm, perhaps very warm weather on the way for most of us as we head into July, the exception being the center of the country.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Geez Taz....isn't that a bit harsh?

Nah, not for Taz. When he's really mad, his posts come across in another language. :-)
Quoting Grothar:


Yo, I thought you disappeared in Oz or something. How've you've been TD?


Almost did (see my user pic)

Been good, crazy busy the past couple of weeks chasing.

How's the summer so far?
Beautiful day in Soo Cal 83 degrees with 25% humidity!

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Tue, 24 Jun 1:57 pm (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Tue, 24 Jun 1:50 pm PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
24 Jun 1:50 pm PDT 83 44 25 NW 8G16 OK
Quoting 511. jrweatherman:



How are you in rainfall this year relative to average?


Here is what we got this year so far :

Jan : 40 mm (avg is 53 mm)
Feb : 55 mm (avg is 47 mm)
March : 24 mm (avg is 49 mm)
Apr : 57 mm (avg is 63 mm)
May : 93 mm (avg is 78 mm)
June : 13 mm so far (avg is 56mm)

2014 so far : 282 mm
Average (including june) : 293 mm

We are near average... but the rest of the year doesn't look pretty. We will see.
Quoting 508. Patrap:



Husk at nar vi erobret nordmenn mens plyndring i Norge veien tilbake?




Ah, the good old days. LOl

I've been planning on doing a blog on the affects of Climate change in the Scandinavian countries and Findland. They have been having enormous problems in agriculture and animals.
Quoting 523. tornadodude:



Almost did (see my user pic)

Been good, crazy busy the past couple of weeks chasing.

How's the summer so far?



Hot, hot, hot. Did you ever go back to school?
Quoting Grothar:
I don't know why people say we sound like we are singing when we speak. :)

I don't look like this, but he speaks a dialect similar to ours.


That's what TWC is missing! A magnetic weather chart, a half-bald guy with glasses, and a pointer. Their ratings would soar if they took a lesson from the Norwegians. :-)
Quoting Grothar:



Hot, hot, hot. Did you ever go back to school?


Sounds about right.

I did not. Been pretty busy running the chase tour company.

Currently tho, I am stranded in Denver while my car is at the shop lol
Quoting 493. Grothar:



I understand it fine. Interesting. I grew up in Norway and I don't ever remember seeing a waterspout.


I grew up in California.....and don't remember anything after they invented Sensi!
Quoting 512. Tazmanian:



No not at all he dos this same crap evere day on the blog


Not everyday...
Here is my view of that tornado warned storm over Denver from May:

Hey Gro, Do the Norwegians speak English? Like on par with the Dutch?
Quoting 514. ryang:

I understand how CaribBoy feels. All of the rain avoiding me.




Still dry there, are we? Don't worry, things should pick up for you pretty soon.

Quoting 533. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Hey Gro, Do the Norwegians speak English? Like on par with the Dutch?


A little better than the Dutch. While most Dutch speak perfect English, they sometimes retain a little Dutch sounds. The Swedes and Norwegians are capable of speaking English almost entirely without an accent now. Most start English in First Grade.
Has anyone seen IKE lately?
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


What is "Satan Vine?"

It's horrible. It has giant leaves and giant thorns and gets in all your plants. Apparently the real name is Hedge bindweed but everyone down here call it Satan vine. This is what it looks like. It took me about 10 minutes to wash off all the blood from the many cuts pulling this stuff out. I wish there was some kind of poison I could put on it that only killed the vine.

wah wah wah wah....
Quoting Grothar:


A little better than the Dutch. While most Dutch speak perfect English, they sometimes retain a little Dutch sounds. The Swedes and Norwegians are capable of speaking English almost entirely without an accent now. Most start English in First Grade.

It was very confusing to me when I was in Oslo. Someone would start speaking to me and I assumed they were another tourist...maybe from Canada. As you say, they speak a perfect, accent-less English, almost too perfect. Most people under 30 or so in Europe speak English but always with a trace of local accent. I don't know how they manage that in Norway.
gfs has a tropical system moving up the bay of calif. that could be a best case scenario for the southwest.
Quoting ryang:
I understand how CaribBoy feels. All of the rain avoiding me.



Do you live on a desert island? ;)
Quoting 540. islander101010:
gfs has a tropical system moving up the bay of calif. that could be a best case scenario for the southwest.


Might enhance the desert monsoons, but won't do squat for us on this side of the San Jacinto/Sierra mountains.
Wow! A record close to home! Down here 70 miles south of Savannah there's been plenty of growly thunderstorms in the afternoon, and a little rain most days (but not today). Have had a total of 0.43" since Friday. No unusual heat or coolness.
545. etxwx
Quoting 537. sar2401:


It's horrible. It has giant leaves and giant thorns and gets in all your plants. Apparently the real name is Hedge bindweed but everyone down here call it Satan vine. This is what it looks like. It took me about 10 minutes to wash off all the blood from the many cuts pulling this stuff out. I wish there was some kind of poison I could put on it that only killed the vine.



Sounds charming. Here's more info with a map. It's an invasive, of course. Surprisingly, Texas doesn't have a lot of it, seems like we have everything else so I guess we were spared Satan in this case. :)
Heya Jeff, when are you going to stop drinking the Kool-Aid when it comes to the actual FACTS with 'global warming' * You must be aware that the TOP climatologists in the world have literally stated that it is totally fabricated and the Earth has been cooling for over 15 years straight! The top senior adviser walked out and resigned during the UN talks. He basically stated that climatologists who were in on this global warming fiasco only stated that global warming exists because that is what they were told to say,,, By this administration and other left wing groups across the globe! Let me ask please, 'Why is it that the Oceans of the world are cooling? Why are the polar caps growing? Why are the Polar Bear flourishing, Unlike the total BS advertisements showing them falling from the sky? Get off the BS yourself and tell the TRUTH... You people have Zero proof that man has had ANY impact on the way Mother Earth cools and warms. Total Fabrications. Oh and by the way... cool videos.. it's always good to see Mother nature react Normally!
547. etxwx
A fair number of spotty showers around East and Southeast Texas today...

And...

It's Lightning Awareness Week.
Quoting etxwx:


Sounds charming. Here's more info with a map. It's an invasive, of course. Surprisingly, Texas doesn't have a lot of it, seems like we have everything else so I guess we were spared Satan in this case. :)

That's the one. I don't know why it only shows my county (Barbour) being infested since this stuff is everywhere here. I guess it just didn't get reported elsewhere. It does have those pretty morning glory type flowers in the spring. If it would just flower and go away, it would be fine. Since we had a such a rainy spring, the vine is much more invasive this year than when we were in drought. Maybe it's just too dry for this thing in Texas. If so, drought isn't always bad. :-)
Quoting TheBrat:

In 1...2....3...
My brain hurts. Bye.
Quoting 546. TheBrat:

Heya Jeff, when are you going to stop drinking the Kool-Aid when it comes to the actual FACTS with 'global warming' * You must be aware that the TOP climatologists in the world have literally stated that it is totally fabricated and the Earth has been cooling for over 15 years straight! The top senior adviser walked out and resigned during the UN talks. He basically stated that climatologists who were in on this global warming fiasco only stated that global warming exists because that is what they were told to say,,, By this administration and other left wing groups across the globe! Let me ask please, 'Why is it that the Oceans of the world are cooling? Why are the polar caps growing? Why are the Polar Bear flourishing, Unlike the total BS advertisements showing them falling from the sky? Get off the BS yourself and tell the TRUTH... You people have Zero proof that man has had ANY impact on the way Mother Earth cools and warms. Total Fabrications. Oh and by the way... cool videos.. it's always good to see Mother nature react Normally!


Reported troll
And the political instigators are here, great.

12z ECMWF is showing a very powerful hurricane developing in the eastern Pacific by 240 hours. Granted it's 10 days out but it wouldn't shock me with the MJO pulse coming into that basin.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic is out for lunch for the next 10-15 days.
Quoting 549. sar2401:



That was a wild first post. He saved up for 7 years only to deliver a completely misinformed and misguided wall of babble. I always find the first post meltdowns hilarious.
Quoting 535. Grothar:



A little better than the Dutch. While most Dutch speak perfect English, they sometimes retain a little Dutch sounds. The Swedes and Norwegians are capable of speaking English almost entirely without an accent now. Most start English in First Grade.

I remember being in a meeting in Stockholm in the 1970s and asking one of the people there which part of England there group came from, whereupon she said that they had never been to England and had lived in Sweden all their lives.
Some of them can even copy UK accents and I knew one Norwegian who could speak perfect Jordie, exactly like they speak in Newcastle.
Cold and wet here in my part of Spain, first time I have seen rain in June since 2004.
Thunder storms all over the place, all caused by a nasty low out over Portugal.
16/C here right now about 10 to 15/C below what it normally is at midnight in my zone.
Quoting 552. CybrTeddy:

And the political instigators are here, great.

12z ECMWF is showing a very powerful hurricane developing in the eastern Pacific by 240 hours. Granted it's 10 days out but it wouldn't shock me with the MJO pulse coming into that basin.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic is out for lunch for the next 10-15 days.




Looks like two me it has two storms
Quoting Tazmanian:



Looks like two me it has two storms


Yup. Douglas out front, Elida behind.
Quoting 503. Grothar:




I still am.


Gro- Are you sure your original name wasn't 'Thor'?
Quoting 552. CybrTeddy:

And the political instigators are here, great.

12z ECMWF is showing a very powerful hurricane developing in the eastern Pacific by 240 hours. Granted it's 10 days out but it wouldn't shock me with the MJO pulse coming into that basin.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic is out for lunch for the next 10-15 days.

More like on Vacation.
Quoting Naga5000:


That was a wild first post. He saved up for 7 years only to deliver a completely misinformed and misguided wall of babble. I always find the first post meltdowns hilarious.

Yes, first post nonsense and drive-by trolls. If we could just somehow not rise to the bait when a post is clearly just to stir the pot, the word would get around to not bother here. I don't see that happening though.
We in the Atlantic basin should be grateful we do not have an early start to the season. As El Nino conditions evolve we should be lucky to get 'watered-down' storms after July; hopefully, plenty of precipitation where needed.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
And the political instigators are here, great.

12z ECMWF is showing a very powerful hurricane developing in the eastern Pacific by 240 hours. Granted it's 10 days out but it wouldn't shock me with the MJO pulse coming into that basin.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic is out for lunch for the next 10-15 days.

Regardless of what the temperatures show (or don't show) in the various parts of the Pacific. the weather certainly acts like there's an El Nino in progress. Even for June, the Atlantic and Caribbean are about as dead as I've ever seen them. There will usually be a low or two wandering around to get people excited but, except for the GFS predicting one to form with almost every run, zero is happening. The wind shear in the Caribbean is amazing, both for speed and persistence. I really though we'd start to see wind shear start to relax a bit by now, but that shows I'm no better at guessing than the GFS. :-)
Quoting 552. CybrTeddy:

And the political instigators are here, great.

12z ECMWF is showing a very powerful hurricane developing in the eastern Pacific by 240 hours. Granted it's 10 days out but it wouldn't shock me with the MJO pulse coming into that basin.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic is out for lunch for the next 10-15 days.


Yikes at those ambient pressures across the entire North Atlantic, especially in contrast to the Tropical Pacific! High pressures like that means subsidence which means stability. Talk about an Atlantic snoozer.
Quoting 557. rmbjoe1954:



Gro- Are you sure your original name wasn't 'Thor'?


Gro's hammer isn't what it use to be. :)

Quoting 559. sar2401:


Yes, first post nonsense and drive-by trolls. If we could just somehow not rise to the bait when a post is clearly just to stir the pot, the word would get around to not bother here. I don't see that happening though.


Yes, wondering why anyone would quote that brat. It just re-posts his rant.
This is by far the best tornado footage I've ever seen. An unobstructed view of two simultaneous EF4 tornadoes from last Monday -- one passing through Pilger and the other passing southeast of the town. It doesn't suffer from Vertical Video Syndrome, there's no annoying screaming or arguing. It's high definition.

The Pilger tornado will remain an EF4 with maximum winds up to 191 mph.

The big picture...

Quoting 552. CybrTeddy:

And the political instigators are here, great.

12z ECMWF is showing a very powerful hurricane developing in the eastern Pacific by 240 hours. Granted it's 10 days out but it wouldn't shock me with the MJO pulse coming into that basin.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic is out for lunch for the next 10-15 days.


110mph/964mb at 240hr.
Quoting sar2401:

It's horrible. It has giant leaves and giant thorns and gets in all your plants. Apparently the real name is Hedge bindweed but everyone down here call it Satan vine. This is what it looks like. It took me about 10 minutes to wash off all the blood from the many cuts pulling this stuff out. I wish there was some kind of poison I could put on it that only killed the vine.

Quoting sar2401:

It's horrible. It has giant leaves and giant thorns and gets in all your plants. Apparently the real name is Hedge bindweed but everyone down here call it Satan vine. This is what it looks like. It took me about 10 minutes to wash off all the blood from the many cuts pulling this stuff out. I wish there was some kind of poison I could put on it that only killed the vine.



What we call "hedge bindweed" is a fast growing relative of Morning Glory with white flowers and no thorns but the dammned stuff does grow REALLY fast and smothers garden plants and slow children. Do you have a larger picture?

We do have another invasive plant with very small barbs on stems and leaves that can grow 50 feet up a tree in a season and also smothers everything. Flowers are inconspicuous and its berries are a putrid bluish purple and inedible. This stuff rips your hands to shreds with those barbs. I got rid of all of it in my yard and have no pictures.

Here is a link to an image

http://www.eddmaps.org/report/images/DSC_0293.jpg

This stuff is much worse than the bindweed because of those thorns
Here's a look at how the Atlantic is faring today:

570. beell
Quoting 547. etxwx:

And...

It's Lightning Awareness Week.


And...
From Rick Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist-NWS Norman, OK
:)




Lighting Safety Awareness Week
(wonder how many times this happens?)
Quoting 562. 1900hurricane:


Yikes at those ambient pressures across the entire North Atlantic, especially in contrast to the Tropical Pacific! High pressures like that means subsidence which means stability. Talk about an Atlantic snoozer.


Guess I should consider myself lucky that I might be seeing some "action" here on the southern coast of Mexico in the next week or so...... but I don't. Been through Gloria, Bob, in Long island and Carlota two years ago down here. It's no fun once you own a house or two that's for sure.
572. etxwx
Quoting 570. beell:



And...
From Rick Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist-NWS Norman, OK
:)




Lighting Safety Awareness Week
(wonder how many times this happens?)

LOL. Perhaps if one is not sufficiently aware of lightning, one becomes lighting aware of the Great White variety. :)
Been a while since I've seen summer days like this. They were much more common in south Louisiana than near Houston in years past, but it's been flat absent around Houston in recent years.

From Houston-Galveston forecast discussion:

CAN`T FIND A REASON WHY IT WON`T RAIN. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE AROUND 20-25 MPH SO EXCESSIVE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNLESS SOME TRAINING DEVELOPS. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM 12 ON THURSDAY ARE INTERESTING. THE SOUNDING IS SATURATED FROM ABOUT 900 MB TO 300 MB WITH PW VALUES REACHING 2.12 INCHES...IF THIS VERIFIES...THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY.
Quoting 513. Grothar:

I don't know why people say we sound like we are singing when we speak. :)

I don't look like this, but he speaks a dialect similar to ours.




that weather board is SO Weaver the Weatherman..
Boom!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form to the south of the
coast of Mexico later this week, and conditions appear favorable for
some development of this system by the weekend while it moves west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
Pacific is gonna be a way ahead of the Atlantic with the D and E storm.
Quoting 574. indianrivguy:



that weather board is SO Weaver the Weatherman..



Bob Weaver is in this clip following Hurricane Andrew...



Quoting 557. rmbjoe1954:



Gro- Are you sure your original name wasn't 'Thor'?


He's more of a Loki...
I'm Thor as my Hair is Longer, and kinda reddish,grey blonde...but I use a Large Brick trowel instead.

Plus I was with Gro in Norway in the 20th Century. Tromso

: P
According to the Damage Assessment Toolkit, the Alpena, South Dakota tornado from last Wednesday has been rated an EF4; survey ongoing.
Quoting 582. TropicalAnalystwx13:

According to the Damage Assessment Toolkit, the Alpena, South Dakota tornado from last Wednesday has been rated an EF4; survey ongoing.
Also, the Coleridge area tornadoes should have their rating information released by NWS Omaha tomorrow.
584. beell
Quoting 573. bappit:

Been a while since I've seen summer days like this. They were much more common in south Louisiana than near Houston in years past, but it's been flat absent around Houston in recent years.

From Houston-Galveston forecast discussion:

CAN`T FIND A REASON WHY IT WON`T RAIN. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE AROUND 20-25 MPH SO EXCESSIVE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNLESS SOME TRAINING DEVELOPS. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM 12 ON THURSDAY ARE INTERESTING. THE SOUNDING IS SATURATED FROM ABOUT 900 MB TO 300 MB WITH PW VALUES REACHING 2.12 INCHES...IF THIS VERIFIES...THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY.


Re the Summer days.
Had the very same thought this afternoon, bappit. Been a while.
Regardless, a convection-producing seabreeze front that pushed inland to Waco has got to be a bit of a rarity also!

Quoting 574. indianrivguy:



that weather board is SO Weaver the Weatherman..




If all they have to say is "snow with cold" you don't need a lot of equipment.
Quoting 557. rmbjoe1954:



Gro- Are you sure your original name wasn't 'Thor'?


No. You are confusing me with my Grandson again.
Thor didn't have a grandfather. Thor's father was Odin, the father of all the gods. That's where it ends.
Short late night greeting, guys, with a quite rare purple warning from Estofex for - once again! - hart hit region of the Balkans:




Some highlights of the warning:

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 25 Jun 2014 06:00 to Thu 26 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC, Issued: Tue 24 Jun 2014 21:09, Forecaster: PISTOTNIK/GROENEMEIJER/GATZEN

A level 2 and level 3 were issued for Central Italy across the Central Balkans into much of Romania and Bulgaria for severe wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes and to a lesser extent for excessive precipitation. ...
SYNOPSIS
A complex high-index pattern is in place over Europe. The polar jet runs from Scotland across Germany to the Ukraine. Over the Eastern half of Europe, it gradually merges with an exceptionally strong subtropical jet that stretches from Northern Algeria towards the Balkans.
Near the surface, a long and wavy frontal zone stretches from Romania via the Southern Alpine region into Algeria. It further intensifies by the advance of the hot Saharan plume on its warm side. This zone is more or less stationary over the Eastern half of Europe, modulated by shallow cyclogeneses over Northern Italy and (probably) over Romania. ...

From the discussion:
Later in the afternoon, storms will likely merge into a squall line that races eastward and poses a primary threat of widespread severe to extreme wind gusts, sustained by a forming Westerly low-level jet (20-25 m/s at 850 hPa). The bordering region of Bulgaria and Romania seems to be at the highest risk of being in the path of such a feature, and despite remaining uncertainties, the exceptional overlap of instability and shear warrant a level 3 for this region. Further convection, often in form of supercells with an ongoing severe weather risk, may continue to initiate all evening long, as outflow boundaries are expected to push Southward into Southern Serbia and Southern Bulgaria. In addition, prolonged periods of heavy precipitation pose a threat of flash floods with larger clusters that form. ...


Jet stream at 200 mb for tomorrow (Wednesday).

Good night and all the best!
Most models are now showing a very strong system in the EPAC as they have for a few days. However, I still maintain there should be a significant system near the SE US coast very soon.








Quoting 588. DonnieBwkGA:

Thor didn't have a grandfather. Thor's father was Odin, the father of all the gods. That's where it ends.


Look, where you there??????

:):)
Quoting 590. Grothar:

Most models are now showing a very strong system in the EPAC as they have for a few days. However, I still maintain there should be a significant system near the SE US coast very soon.









What model do does ensembles come from?
Quoting 565. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is by far the best tornado footage I've ever seen. An unobstructed view of two simultaneous EF4 tornadoes from last Monday -- one passing through Pilger and the other passing southeast of the town. It doesn't suffer from Vertical Video Syndrome, there's no annoying screaming or arguing. It's high definition.

The Pilger tornado will remain an EF4 with maximum winds up to 191 mph.




Check out the face in the tornado at 1:41--it looks like Evdard Munch's The Scream!
Way, way off topic. Glad the little girl is getting help. But a disturbing story...

Report: Viral story of disfigured girl kicked out of KFC was hoax
That's what I want to read from the NHC asap...

...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

INTEREST IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. A HURRICANE WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 930 MILES...1500 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
Quoting 565. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is by far the best tornado footage I've ever seen. An unobstructed view of two simultaneous EF4 tornadoes from last Monday -- one passing through Pilger and the other passing southeast of the town. It doesn't suffer from Vertical Video Syndrome, there's no annoying screaming or arguing. It's high definition.

The Pilger tornado will remain an EF4 with maximum winds up to 191 mph.




That is amazing, great job by whoever shot this video.
Dr. Jeff Masters will be speaking here Thursday the first day of the conference from 11:30-Noon EDT.

Lunch is also sponsored by wunderground.com

Portlight Conference, New Jersey

So, any additional speculation regarding the final rating for the Coleridge tornado?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Way, way off topic. Glad the little girl is getting help. But a disturbing story...

Report: Viral story of disfigured girl kicked out of KFC was hoax

I've been following this story, and it's a good example of what we call "journalism" today. The story started on FB and then Twitter, and was then picked by media all over the world, with only the grandmother's report of what happened at the KFC as being true. This apparently passes as fact checking today. The staff at the Jackson MS KFC's had death threats and even had drinks thrown in their faces. The child was disfigured by 3 of her grandfather's 10 pit bulls. Now the FB page and crowd sourcing page have been taken down as more evidence has surfaced that the grandmother, aunt, and possibly others, deliberately perpetrated this hoax. KFC is still going to contribute $30,000 to the child's medical fund, which I hope will be in trust, so none of the adults who were supposed to be taking care of her will be able to get their hands on it. A sad commentary on how a lie can become the truth in seconds and greed at light speed.
It was really bad?

From da DOMINATOR'

Published on Jun 17, 2014

NEW VIDEO from Dominator 3 during intercept of one of the most violent tornadoes I have ever seen north of Coleridge, Nebraska! Still in probe recovery mode we have GPS fixes on all of them. Uploading ground-based probe next. Sorry for being a spaz ;)

* Visit http://tvnweather.com/ondemand for the 2013 season of Tornado Chasers! *

602. txjac
Quoting 584. beell:



Re the Summer days.
Had the very same thought this afternoon, bappit. Been a while.
Regardless, a convection-producing seabreeze front that pushed inland to Waco has got to be a bit of a rarity also!




That image is beautiful! Been loving this weather!
Quoting beell:


Re the Summer days.
Had the very same thought this afternoon, bappit. Been a while.
Regardless, a convection-producing seabreeze front that pushed inland to Waco has got to be a bit of a rarity also!



Lol. Similar thoughts of been awhile in my little corner of Texas too. First time in a long time I've had an all day rainy day instead of just a short downpour. Might get back out of the drought at this rate. :)

Temp
71.3°F
0mph
Hi: 91°F
Lo: 69°F
Rain: 1.39"
Gust: S 22
Heat Index: 71°F
Humidity: 96%
Sunrise: 6:15 AM
Sunset: 8:21 PM
Dew Point: 70°F
Avg Wind: 0 NNE
Pressure: 30.00"
Rain/Month: 4.75"
Quoting 565. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is by far the best tornado footage I've ever seen. An unobstructed view of two simultaneous EF4 tornadoes from last Monday -- one passing through Pilger and the other passing southeast of the town. It doesn't suffer from Vertical Video Syndrome, there's no annoying screaming or arguing. It's high definition.

The Pilger tornado will remain an EF4 with maximum winds up to 191 mph.


If I could ever maintain enough cool to film a tornado, this is how I'd want to be - quiet, with a steady hand, and the sense to breathe a sigh of relief when I get down into some shelter... lol ... gotta agree, though; this is some of the best footage of a tornado I've seen in a while.
605. beell
603. AtHomeInTX
602. txjac

Ha! Almost all of Texas has reported in. I'm tickled we all feel the same!
606. Ed22
I'm noticing something over the southern caribbean, that tropical disturbance have a nice spin to it even through wind-shear is still a bit high 20 to 40 knot over the caribbean basin. Wind-shear could decrease some more which could allow some breathing space for development if possible over the coming days. This weekend into next week we need to keep an eye on the southern caribbean and the gulf of mexico for possibility for tropical development. Let see what happens then weather fokes.
607. txjac
Quoting 605. beell:

603. AtHomeInTX
602. txjac

Ha! Almost all of Texas has reported in. I'm tickled we all feel the same!


To me it's additionally funny ...We have brought in 200 users world wide to Houston, and have about 50 Indian consultants on this project ...and about 75% of them coming here thought that they would be seeing dust roads and tumbleweeds ...they have been amazed by our March and June weather (thats the months that they have been here) ...too funny
This makes it look wetter. Enjoy your rain in Texas kids.

Quoting 441. DeepSeaRising:

HimacaneBreese has a point in all of this, he really does. Here's the deeper societal reason behind it all. If your born into the concrete jungles of American and all you see in you informative years is drug dealing, gang banging, ignorance, and drug use; that's what your very very likely to become. What we learn in our informative years is who we are. It then get perpetuated on the generational level. Learning to game the system is part of this learned behavior and it does get passed down and is a real problem. Most of us are blessed to have never been born into such a repetitive destructive system as the ghettos are. Just like racism, ignorance is passed down generation to generation until someone breaks the pattern. Many if not most of these poor never had a chance from the beginning and you have to go back generations to find the starting point, and the buck stops long ago with the hand they were given by Jim Crow America and pre Civil Rights America. Some are smart enough, or fortunate enough to get out or rise above, but it's not the norm. Our informative years make us who we are and understanding this helps to shed light on this societal issue that is much more deep and complicated than most think.
Agree strongly especially with your final comment... Part of the problem is that nobody really wants to talk about the elephant in the room. It's a lot easier to classify people as all ghetto dwellers; all hicks and rubes; all rednecks; all spics etc ad nauseum with the stereotyped preclassifications, than it is to meet people as individuals and treat as we find based on our behaviour. It's a lot harder to break out of a destructive cycle if everybody expects you to fit into the stereotype and everything you learn implies you don't have a choice. It's a lot easier to go the route of, say, teen pregnancy and single parenthood if you are the fourth generation of women in your family to do so. You don't know anything else. More importantly, you don't BELIEVE anybody else who tells you that there are alternative ways to support yourself, using your God-given talents.

And before we forget, this is in many ways a HUMAN problem which manifests itself to a certain extent in many societies. IMO it's part of what keeps the Middle East a hotbed of unrest.
Quoting Grothar:
This makes it look wetter. Enjoy your rain in Texas kids.



Lol. Thanks Gro! I did. The sound put me out like a light. It was a nice nap. :)
Quoting 606. Ed22:

I'm noticing something over the southern caribbean, that tropical disturbance have a nice spin to it even through wind-shear is still a bit high 20 to 40 knot over the caribbean basin. Wind-shear could decrease some more which could allow some breathing space for development if possible over the coming days. This weekend into next week we need to keep an eye on the southern caribbean and the gulf of mexico for possibility for tropical development. Let see what happens then weather fokes.
I'm pretty sure that without the shear we would have already seen a TC in the W Car.

Speaking of naps. I think I'll roll myself to sleep. Have a good night. And remember, we all share about 99.9% of the same genes. So the next blogger you insult may be an 11th cousin twice removed.






614. Ed22
I think it ( tropical disturbance) is going to continue fire up thunderclouds till morning because their something brewing over the sourthern caribbean, good night weather fokes see you in the morning, going to get some sleep night everyone.
Quoting Grothar:

Speaking of naps. I think I'll roll myself to sleep. Have a good night. And remember, we all share about 99.9% of the same genes. So the next blogger you insult may be an 11th cousin twice removed.








Night Gro. Sleep well.
Lol. It's not just us WU bloggers. There's that term again. A while. This is just north of etxwx. :)

Heavy rains leave several Angelina County streets flooded


ANGELINA COUNTY, TX (KTRE) -

Tuesday afternoon's heavy rains flooded several streets in Angelina County.

The hardest hit area was Farm-to-Market Road 706.

Mossey Creek road became a homemade waterpark for children.

"I was surprised," Christina Gamboa said. "It picked up quick."

None of the homes on the street suffered any serious flooding, but it still worried the residents.

"There was no flooding and then she said, 'Nana the road's covered up with water,'" Ada Seale said. "That's when we looked outside. It hasn't been this bad for a while."

One resident said the area took on a heavy amount of rain in a short time.

"It rained real hard for a period of time," Kevin Black. "Our rain gauge showed 3.25 inches of rain."

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form to the south of the
coast of Mexico later this week, and conditions appear favorable for
some development of this system by the weekend while it moves west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

0% to 40% now
Quoting 552. CybrTeddy:

And the political instigators are here, great.

12z ECMWF is showing a very powerful hurricane developing in the eastern Pacific by 240 hours. Granted it's 10 days out but it wouldn't shock me with the MJO pulse coming into that basin.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic is out for lunch for the next 10-15 days.



Obviously the atmosphere has not nor will respond to the El Nino in this forecast period. Pressure spread like that reminds me of 04 or 05.
Not officially el nino conditions if the atmosphere does not respond. [NOAA's operational definitions are given in the ENSO Update.)
Despite all the warmer May temperatures around the world, here in Colorado, everyone was commenting on how extremely cold this May was, I thought that this May was bitter cold right through the end of the month, and the first warmer temperatures only arrived in June. Mothers Day, in particular, we had blizzard conditions and snow drifts pile up. I wonder if the climatologists are using all of the average temperatures world wide to come up with the warmer than normal May.
Quoting 618. ProgressivePulse:



Obviously the atmosphere has not nor will respond to the El Nino in this forecast period. Pressure spread like that reminds me of 04 or 05.
Not a happy thought for anybody on this side of the ATL....

Quoting 620. DeeCeeH:

Despite all the warmer May temperatures around the world, here in Colorado, everyone was commenting on how extremely cold this May was, I thought that this May was bitter cold right through the end of the month, and the first warmer temperatures only arrived in June. Mothers Day, in particular, we had blizzard conditions and snow drifts pile up. I wonder if the climatologists are using all of the average temperatures world wide to come up with the warmer than normal May.
I am always intrigued by the fact that it is possible to get snow [and even blizzard condiditons] in June or even July in the intermountain west....
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form to the south of the
coast of Mexico later this week, and conditions appear favorable for
some development of this system by the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Quoting Patrap:
It was really bad?

From da DOMINATOR'

Published on Jun 17, 2014

NEW VIDEO from Dominator 3 during intercept of one of the most violent tornadoes I have ever seen north of Coleridge, Nebraska! Still in probe recovery mode we have GPS fixes on all of them. Uploading ground-based probe next. Sorry for being a spaz ;) 
How embarrassing. Reed needs a new (much braver) driver. Desperately. :)

He's coming across a lot like Tornado Alley's version of Nouri al-Maliki trying to lead the disappearing Iraq Army. :)

Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm pretty sure that without the shear we would have already seen a TC in the W Car.
Hypothetically, if the Sun explodes tomorrow we could all be dead in 48 hours.

My fantasy is better than your fantasy. Neener, neener, neener.

Enough with the disguised wishcasting.... OK?

Sheesh, let's take reality as it comes. Leave the speculation about the heebeejeeebee hypotheticals to the pros like Stephen King.

And another thing. I'm pretty sure that without the Romans shearing his troops, Hannibal would have conquered Rome. I guarantee it. Hypothetically. :)
Quoting DeeCeeH:
I wonder if the climatologists are using all of the average temperatures world wide to come up with the warmer than normal May.
Of course they are. What a silly question. Just because you've experienced anomalously cold weather in your tiny back yard does not mean that your mind should extrapolate this to a global guess.

I had to do a double take on this in May myself. I keep a close eye on Colorado River flows. As you may know, 30 million people rely on this erratic and largely disappearing river for water. In May there was hardly any water flowing into Lake Powell, though the monitoring services said that there was an above average snow pack in the upper basins of the Colorado and Green Rivers.

All that water came down in early June. And there ain't no more to be had.

http://snowpack.water-data.com/uppercolorado/inde x.php?getall=1



My point? Colorado is warming up. Why, it's as if summer is coming. :)


Good Morning guys

Quoting 618. ProgressivePulse:



Obviously the atmosphere has not nor will respond to the El Nino in this forecast period. Pressure spread like that reminds me of 04 or 05.

Yeah I was saying the same thing reminds me of 04/05
I'm not sure but I think 2007 was same or similar too
The models have been showing this for days. First mention I've seen of it though. Yes that wonderful rain-induced afternoon nap is rearing its ugly head at 345 am...


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF USED TO ADJUST WIND FORECAST. MWW3 USED
TO ADJUST WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SW N ATLC
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE MIGRATING FROM 26N-27N THU TO NEAR
29N-30N. THE ONLY AREA EXPECTED TO SEE FRESH TRADES WILL BE THE
AREA BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE SE BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS WITH
NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET DEPICT A WEAK LOW
PRES CLOSING OFF IN DIFFERENT AREAS AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
STARTING LATE SATURDAY...BUT EXACT LOCATION...TIMING AND STRENGTH
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE LOW ORIGINATES FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE AREA AND MIGRATES SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. FORECAST
FOLLOWS A GFS- ECMWF BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LOW
PRES SEEMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. MWW3 FAVORED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.




hmm I like how early July may turn out to be via GFS
take the last couple of model runs loop
speed it up to about 75%
not looking at specifics but the overall pattern
I'm looking at the pressures and the shear

what I see
is Atlantic high in place spread out from E Atlantic to the US E coast
the high shear lifting out (not totally but majority) of the Atlantic/MDR and Caribbean with shear lifting out of the Atlantic/MDR first

that would cause some stronger (Moderate) tropical waves to traverse across the Atlantic and Caribbean
maybe if conditions are right at the time maybe spark some tropical development in the Atlantic and/or Caribbean
certainly something to look towards

Quoting 627. AtHomeInTX:

The models have been showing this for days. First mention I've seen of it though. Yes that wonderful rain-induced afternoon nap is rearing its ugly head at 345 am...


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF USED TO ADJUST WIND FORECAST. MWW3 USED
TO ADJUST WAVE FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SW N ATLC
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE MIGRATING FROM 26N-27N THU TO NEAR
29N-30N. THE ONLY AREA EXPECTED TO SEE FRESH TRADES WILL BE THE
AREA BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE SE BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS WITH
NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET DEPICT A WEAK LOW
PRES CLOSING OFF IN DIFFERENT AREAS AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
STARTING LATE SATURDAY...BUT EXACT LOCATION...TIMING AND STRENGTH
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE LOW ORIGINATES FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE AREA AND MIGRATES SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. FORECAST
FOLLOWS A GFS- ECMWF BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LOW
PRES SEEMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. MWW3 FAVORED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.






yes I saw that on the GFS run
hmm it could become a tropical system of some sort
may be a sub tropical depression or storm or maybe even a TD or weak TS
atleast we would have something to kick start the "actual" storm season
Good Morning........................................... ..................................................
343. Stormlover16
2:24 PM GMT on June 24, 2014

Quoting 294. Grothar:


What is the only tropical depression to form over land? Quoting 343. Stormlover16:




After doing a bit of research (and reading blogger's comments), I have found:

Agnes 1972 (Yucutan)
Christine 1973 (Africa)
Beryl 1988 (Louisiana)





Great info! Another question to add to the topic:


Q: What tropical storm formed over land?

ANSWER: Tropical Storm Elena was named over the island of CUBA, on Aug 28, 1985!

Elena was an amazing tropical storm because it was named as a tropical storm OVER THE ISLAND OF CUBA, as it raced westward at 20-25MPH. The system moved WNW into the GOM, and rapidly became a hurricane. It turned north, and northeast, and then stalled 55mi SW Cedar Key, FL. As steering currents collapsed, the system became a major CAT3 hurricane and began moving WNW. On Sept 2, 1985, after holding 4 states hostage, Hurricane Elena brushed past Dauphin IS, AL, with wind gusts over 120MPH, clobbered Pascagoula, MS, and moved inland at Biloxi & Gulfport, MS.

Hurricane Elena, and Hurricane Juan (Oct 1985) had 2 of the craziest paths ever charted for a hurricane, and both occurred in the same year!
Quoting 631. Stormwatch247:





Great info! Another question to add to the topic:


Q: What tropical storm formed over land?

ANSWER: Tropical Storm Elena was named over the island of CUBA, on Aug 28, 1985!

Elena was an amazing tropical storm because it formed OVER THE ISLAND OF CUBA, as it raced westward at 20-25MPH. The system moved WNW into the GOM, and rapidly became a hurricane. It turned north, and northeast, and then stalled 55mi SW Cedar Key, FL. As steering currents collapsed, the system became a major hurricane and began moving WNW. After holding 4 states hostage, Hurricane Elena brushed past Dauphin IS, AL with wind gusts up to 122MPH, clobbered Pascagoula, MS, and moved inland at Biloxi/Gulfport, MS.

correction to that
Elena did not formed over Cuba. It formed E of the E tip of Cuba.
moved WNW across Cuba the long way meanwhile strengthened to TS status

entered the GOM passing just W of of the Florida Keys became a Hurricane turning NW
Elena turned N then ENE after becoming a Cat 2 heading toward N-Central Florida
Elena then stalled before it got to make its Florida landfall later strengthening to a Cat 3 and moving back W-WNW peaking at 125mph
it made its landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi at a slightly weaker intensity
at the point Elena became a TS it was over land that was at sea level and it was very close to the water
636. FOREX
Quoting 606. Ed22:

I'm noticing something over the southern caribbean, that tropical disturbance have a nice spin to it even through wind-shear is still a bit high 20 to 40 knot over the caribbean basin. Wind-shear could decrease some more which could allow some breathing space for development if possible over the coming days. This weekend into next week we need to keep an eye on the southern caribbean and the gulf of mexico for possibility for tropical development. Let see what happens then weather fokes.


The only spin I see is at 7N 40W.
tropical wave now entering the Central Caribbean moving WNW has lost the SAL around it and now quickly gaining moisture aided by the monsoon trof and the upper ridge centered in the SW Caribbean/NW Colombia
Thanks for the Elena Update :) WonderKidCayman: Thanks for posting the map of this historical hurricane!

I updated the info. That was a bad hurricane for us, along N Central Gulf Coast!!! One of the most shocking wind damaging hurricanes that I have ever witnessed in person. What a crazy storm, it was originally forecast to hit us, took a 4 day side-trip to the east, and came back to get us in the end! That one told me to never say never!

Although the storm surge was bad, it was the winds in Elena that did a lot of the damage. Yes, I am a hurricane chaser, but not professionally. Have studied them for years .... lets say, decades!

The information all of you provide on WU is just awesome! I love to hear everyone's take on what's going to happen every year, and this year might get interesting ....
639. FOREX
TWC just noted that Shear will keep anything from forming in the Caribbean for the next 5 days at least.
just saw pictures from last wkend of snow on the peaks near telluride. another note is the news reported 418 drones crashed since 2002. they forgot to mention nhc website this yr
Quoting 636. FOREX:



The only spin I see is at 7N 40W.

actually strong increasing vort in the SW Caribbean plus increased/increasing vort on the lower end of the tropical wave now entering the Central Caribbean
with how things looking it should be interesting during the next couple of days but at this point any development is unlikely if any it would be slow to occur
Quoting 634. Gearsts:




Oh boy.It looks like we wil have to deal with those outbreaks more than normal this year.And as you know the lakes are going down in capacity and if it doesn't rain enough by August/September and October,we will be going thru rationing the water.
Quoting 639. FOREX:

TWC just noted that Shear will keep anything from forming in the Caribbean for the next 5 days at least.

right now shear is still high but it decreasing in fact its a good bit lower from Nicaragua to Colombia its 30kts and less the SW Caribbean is indeed letting up
00z ECMWF has two EPAC systems making the second one a formidable hurricane.

Quoting 639. FOREX:

TWC just noted that Shear will keep anything from forming in the Caribbean for the next 5 days at least.

The Caribbean remains closed for the foreseeable future. The GFS shows no letup in shear there for the next two weeks at least. We'll be turning our eyes to the East Pac soon as at least one development will likely occur there in the next week or so.
646. beell

Current CIMSS Shear


-24 hr Shear
(click for larger image)
Quoting 645. MAweatherboy1:


The Caribbean remains closed for the foreseeable future. The GFS shows no letup in shear there for the next two weeks at least. We'll be turning our eyes to the East Pac soon as at least one development will likely occur there in the next week or so.

that where your wrong it does show it letting up not a whole lot but nearly by half the current numbers

but anyway there should be a decrease in shear overall in the area as we get into next month as per norms
any way I'm out for now
bye ya'll
And the Perfecta rolls on
0-0-0

Ok people its only June, nothing to see here, move on

Off to work,
Good Morning.
And BAH !!
The Sahara Dust is as thick as a shroud this morning.
Going to make for a hot and sweaty day here.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Obviously the atmosphere has not nor will respond to the El Nino in this forecast period. Pressure spread like that reminds me of 04 or 05.


Not so. Note how high pressures are across the Atlantic in that image. You'd want to normally see greens across the GOMEX/MDR/Caribbean (such as one can see in the EPAC, which is about to take off). This reflects dry, sinking air across the Atlantic. Then note how potent the subtropical jet is across the Caribbean and MDR. The atmosphere has responded to the forming El Nino and the conditions in the Atlantic reflect as such.
Good Morning:

The NWS Omaha office has updated the information on the tornadoes from 6/17/14. They found that the Coleridge supercell produced 6 tornadoes. The strongest, widest, and longest tracked tornado was the Coleridge tornado. It is rated as a strong EF-3. It destroyed 2 farmhouses down to the foundation and debarked trees at it's peak. The tornado also had an erratic path, moving from the NW to the SE, then turning and heading to the north. The 5 other tornadoes were rated EF-0 to EF-2. More information can be found on the updated link from The NWS Omaha.

Tornado tracks:


Coleridge tornado damage:
Quoting 642. Tropicsweatherpr:



Oh boy.It looks like we wil have to deal with those outbreaks more than normal this year.And as you know the lakes are going down in capacity and if it doesn't rain enough by August/September and October,we will be going thru rationing the water.


Getting dry here in FL as well in spots as our normal rainy season pattern is sputtering along. Very isolated rains as opposed to our normal widespread deluge we are accustomed to. No rain at my location in 9 days which is the longest duration without rain all year.





Good morning! It appears the nino 3.4 maybe heading for its first offical 1C reading by the CPC next week as Nino 3.4 has consistant been hovering just over 1C since last weekend. As a result don't be surprised to see all the models jump on the Strong El-Nino bandwagon as we are way over what the models say we should be at across Nino 3.4. Also there are hints of a powerful MJO pulse across western Asia that could be heading across the Pacific in July and if that occurs then we could see Nino 3.4 spike up to 1.5C in July.



Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice
Velocity Potential MJO (VPM) indices showing quite the MJO event over the central Pacific. RMM much weaker in amp


I can only imagine what this blog would be like if it was Aug. 1st, 1992 and we hadn't had one named storm. Everyone would be saying "the seasons a bust."

I always tell people to just wait. Hurricane Andrew (first storm of the season obviously), didn't form until Aug. 16th and it didn't make landfall in the U.S. until Aug. 24th.

Having an early storm form, in June for example, doesn't mean the season is going to be active. And even if the season isn't an "active season" that doesn't mean we won't see a landfalling tropical system in the U.S.





stay alert for any tornado or strong wind warnings up here.............................................. ...............
With such a strong signature of El-Nino it appears to be putting the clamps down on the Atlantic Basin and this is why I rolled out the 5 to 7 named storms this year as it appears shear and dry air are going to rule the Atlantic Basin this year.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Getting dry here in FL as well in spots as our normal rainy season pattern is sputtering along. Very isolated rains as opposed to our normal widespread deluge we are accustomed to. No rain at my location in 9 days which is the longest duration without rain all year.







Local met said rainy season should slowly start back over the next few days. We've been very dry here in Fort Myers over the past several days (bright sunnny skies with no rain).

Quoting 657. Sfloridacat5:

I can only imagine what this blog would be like if it was Aug. 1st, 1992 and we hadn't had one named storm. Everyone would be saying "the seasons a bust."

I always tell people to just wait. Hurricane Andrew (first storm of the season obviously), didn't form until Aug. 16th and it didn't make landfall in the U.S. until Aug. 24th.

Having an early storm form, in June for example, doesn't mean the season is going to be active.









This is a El Niño. Year or soon will be Hurricane Andrew happen has El Niño was ending has I recall. So Hurricane Andrew doe not cont
Quoting 657. Sfloridacat5:

I can only imagine what this blog would be like if it was Aug. 1st, 1992 and we hadn't had one named storm. Everyone would be saying "the seasons a bust."

I always tell people to just wait. Hurricane Andrew (first storm of the season obviously), didn't form until Aug. 16th and it didn't make landfall in the U.S. until Aug. 24th.

Having an early storm form, in June for example, doesn't mean the season is going to be active. And even if the season isn't an "active season" that doesn't mean we won't see a landfalling tropical system in the U.S.








We may squeeze out a major this year at or above 20N but it appears the MDR could be closed for business this year. Look close to home for systems this year to possibly affect the US.

Quoting 659. StormTrackerScott:

With such a strong signature of El-Nino it appears to be putting the clamps down on the Atlantic Basin and this is why I rolled out the 5 to 7 named storms this year as it appears shear and dry air are going to rule the Atlantic Basin this year.




What see if we can even make it two 5 name storms. 7 will be a vary lucky #
Basically folks official or not El-Nino is here and it is being felt all across the Globe right now with drought in Indonesia, droughts across the Caribbean, Brazil, and flooding rains across Mexico and Peru recently.
Less storms in any given year, for whatever the reason, is a good thing in spite of the fact that all like to watch and track storms.
Quoting 660. Sfloridacat5:



Local met said rainy season should slowly start back over the next few days. We've been very dry here in Fort Myers over the past several days (bright sunnny skies with no rain).


no rain for about 8 days in riverview, east of tampa, very hot, very humid. rainy season started rainy enough but now it went away again. what happened ??
Hope the Blog does not melt down in a few years when the Atlantic switches back to a "less active" multi-decadal Atlantic oscillation that will last for 20-30 years............................................. ..... :)
CFSv2 is beginning to trend up. However still not showing the 1C right now that Nino 3.4 has been at since last Saturday. This is why we maybe realizing a strong El-Nino is a very real possibility.

I really wish El Nino records went back to the 1900s. Lots of seasons in the early 1900s were quiet season, like this one below. Of course this was during the pre-satellite era, but reanalysis projects have pinpointed storms that have formed in the Central Atlantic.

The 1920 Atlantic hurricane season ran through the summer and the first half of fall in 1920. The season was below average with only five tropical cyclones forming in the Atlantic Basin. It had one of the shortest seasons of duration, with the activity occurring in a 23 day period. All but one of them were hurricanes but none reached major hurricane status (Category 3 or above).

671. VR46L
Quoting 668. weathermanwannabe:

Hope the Blog does not melt down in a few years when the Atlantic switches back to a "less active" multi-decadal Atlantic oscillation that will last for 20-30 years............................................. ..... :)



Looks to me like it started last year .....
672. VR46L
And Good Morning all !
Quoting 672. VR46L:

And Good Morning all !
Good Morning to you, I think we need at least 2 if not 3 more years to make it a 5 year period to see if activity has decreased. For example, if we have a La Nina season and the season performs average to below average, then I think we would have entered a less active period. But anyways it is all speculative at this point and we should let this season run its course and next season to see if we return quickly to a La Nina.
Has anyone noticed the dusty air across FL lately? The sky has been turned to a weird light brown color lately as it appears all this African dust has made it to FL.

You can kinda make it out here on the Winter Park tower cam in Orlando.



If we were to get 10 storms in a few upcoming La Nina years, then I would think that the signal had changed to less active at that time..............
Quoting 675. weathermanwannabe:

If we were to get 10 storms in a few upcoming La Nina years, then I would think that the signal had changed to less active at that time..............



LOL. If that happens the expect lots of GW posts on blog during the peak of Hurricane Season.
R Kelly's daughter wants to become a transgender and she wants to be called Jay.
SAL DOOM!!!

The related question is how will GW impact tropical storms, and perhaps some of the cycles such as Enso/Multi-Decadal signals, etc in terms of their more recent signatures and timetables but it will take a few more decades of data and observation to make those connections.
The TAO suggest our subsurface warm pool has been strengthening since the last update on 6/17. Also not only strengthening but also it's expanding westward. This is a big change from a week ago.

El Nino is a Hoax.

Like Fla. wet & Dry Seasons.

: P
Quoting 600. sar2401:


I've been following this story, and it's a good example of what we call "journalism" today. The story started on FB and then Twitter, and was then picked by media all over the world, with only the grandmother's report of what happened at the KFC as being true. This apparently passes as fact checking today. The staff at the Jackson MS KFC's had death threats and even had drinks thrown in their faces. The child was disfigured by 3 of her grandfather's 10 pit bulls. Now the FB page and crowd sourcing page have been taken down as more evidence has surfaced that the grandmother, aunt, and possibly others, deliberately perpetrated this hoax. KFC is still going to contribute $30,000 to the child's medical fund, which I hope will be in trust, so none of the adults who were supposed to be taking care of her will be able to get their hands on it. A sad commentary on how a lie can become the truth in seconds and greed at light speed.
What a troubled world we live in...Real bright leaving a little girl with the pit bulls. It is widely known that they are unpredictable even when trained and raised properly from puppyhood. The relatives will likely get the cash unless someone with authority steps in.
# 682

This is wu CNN...?
Quoting 668. weathermanwannabe:

Hope the Blog does not melt down in a few years when the Atlantic switches back to a "less active" multi-decadal Atlantic oscillation that will last for 20-30 years............................................. ..... :)



I've been on that bandwagon for over a year now. Back in the '90's Dr. Gray did a great job at identifying and predicting an active period and I think now we are moving back to a less active period we saw in the 70's and 80's.
Hi Scott, did you see JB's article on the El Nino? Basically stated no Super Nino more than likely weak to moderate. I will trust JB more than you on this one as he is an actual meteorologist who as been studying the weather and climate for quite a few years. I would like to see some form of El Nino so we can break this weather pattern we've been in, in the Tropical Atlantic.
What's this in the Western Gulf? NHC calling it only diurnal convection, shear is in the moderate range and this disturbance looks like an AOI candidate possibly. Better than looking at a blob that forms in the SW Caribbean, stuck in the STJ, and doomed to a quick demise.
180 hrs gfs has a hurricane approaching cabo. hopefully we can get a portion of this into the sw.
Quoting 686. NativeSun:

Hi Scott, did you see JB's article on the El Nino? Basically stated no Super Nino more than likely weak to moderate. I will trust JB more than you on this one as he is an actual meteorologist who as been studying the weather and climate for quite a few years. I would like to see some form of El Nino so we can break this weather pattern we've been in, in the Tropical Atlantic.


Well I don't think we are going to get a "super" El-Nino as that ship has sailed but a moderate to strong event appears likely. JB is forecasting weaker but not as weak as he was forecasting earlier so his forecast are trending higher as well.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
With such a strong signature of El-Nino it appears to be putting the clamps down on the Atlantic Basin and this is why I rolled out the 5 to 7 named storms this year as it appears shear and dry air are going to rule the Atlantic Basin this year.



It's only June bubba. I'm going to stick with the experts on this one and say we get 9-11 storms. They can form anywhere from Cape Verde, to the MDR, Caribbean and the GOM. I would say that nothing is going to form at the moment with all that Saharan Dust. We may not see our first system until mid-late July or even August. But saying any region is 'closed for business' for an entire year before the season has even picked up is just pre-mature and its like throwing darts at a dart board and missing :o)
691. yoboi
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Hope the Blog does not melt down in a few years when the Atlantic switches back to a "less active" multi-decadal Atlantic oscillation that will last for 20-30 years............................................. ..... :)



seems the storms are also having trouble finding the missing heat..........
Quoting 684. Patrap:

# 682

This is wu CNN...?
Morning Pat..Please forgive my off topic post.. That story made me P.O.. U know me, I usually stick with the weather.
Quoting 692. hydrus:

Morning Pat..Please forgive my off topic post.. That story made me P.O.. U know me, I usually stick with the weather.


Morning hydrus,
Is good, I mean I took the Humor easy out .

"This is Wu CNN",


..in my best James Earl Jones tones'
I wunder if the Plastic Surgeon who offered his talents for the lil Girl will still follow thru?
Quoting 689. StormTrackerScott:



Well I don't think we are going to get a "super" El-Nino as that ship has sailed but a moderate to strong event appears likely. JB is forecasting weaker but not as weak as he was forecasting earlier so his forecast are trending higher as well.
We could use a weak or moderate Nino.....its been a long time.
well...you can look at the tradewinds in the enso region and tell that the MJO pulse has subsided....last week at this time you could see westerly winds from right about the hawaiian islands eastwards....now the only westerlies are being influenced along the mexican coast from what may be the next tropical system...dougie.....the question will be is where the convergence of the northern and southern winds will be....before this latest wind burst....the convergence was at the equator and one of the reasons we were seeing a drop in sst anomalies....now they are more to the north...if they drop in the coming week or two as some suggest....we will see anomalies slowly drop again...you can easilly see the movement of these winds at earthschool.net
Quoting 693. Patrap:



Morning hydrus,
Is good, I mean I took the Humor easy out .

"This is Wu CNN",


..in my best James Earl Jones tones'

Yep..Jonesy,s gettin up there...80 i tink..:)
699. Ed22
Quoting 687. DeepSeaRising:

What's this in the Western Gulf? NHC calling it only diurnal convection, shear is in the moderate range and this disturbance looks like an AOI candidate possibly. Better than looking at a blob that forms in the SW Caribbean, stuck in the STJ, and doomed to a quick demise.
this is a possible invest 91L in the GOM later today. The NHC will rule on it, if they see it fit to do so as always ( 20% Chance) if possible.
AB high pressure shaping up to be at least as strong as last year, likely stronger causing ridiculous high pressures in the Atlantic, El Nino, SAL stronger than last years; is going to make this a really long season for storm watchers. Great waves off of Africa are going to just poof just like we saw last year. Low pressure systems off Georgia and the Carolina's and maybe something spinning up in the Bahamas might be our only shots at anything of substance. Western Gulf might get a little action too. North Africa's rainy season is not coming to fruition either, so any shot at this SAL lessening in the next two months is not promising. We may be lucky to get two CV's this year. Scott may well be right, 5-7 storms could well be spot on. Late developing waves, if shear ever lessens in the Caribbean, could be of interest in August and September.
Quoting 694. Patrap:

I wunder if the Plastic Surgeon who offered his talents for the lil Girl will still follow thru?
I would say yes...I hope I am not wrong.
well i guess this tells us how joe feels about those who talk about super el ninos

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 21h
NOAA, before you shoot your mouth off about things like Super Ninos,or this,shouldnt you wait till cold PDO amo counter recent 30 yrs
Rest, Tuco

Eli Wallach has passed at 98.



Doodle-Loo, wah,wah,wahhhh......
Quoting 661. Tazmanian:




This is a El Niño. Year or soon will be Hurricane Andrew happen has El Niño was ending has I recall. So Hurricane Andrew doe not cont

It counts in the sense that we were experiencing a basin with very unfavorable conditions and it still managed to crank out a category 5 monster in the Bahamas.
Quoting 681. Patrap:

El Nino is a Hoax.

Like Fla. wet & Dry Seasons.

: P
The typical rainy season in Florida has changed significantly over the past 15 years. In short, it is not as predictable. There are however at least 5 distinct rainy season patterns that occur over the region.
JB,

..suttle in his Language as always, eh?

: P


Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · Jun 23
Enso 1.2will fade fast in fall, leaving warmer enso 3.4 but no stronger than mod, perhapsweak. Discussion on http://Weatherbell.com
15 min
Quoting 705. hydrus:

The typical rainy season in Florida has changed significantly over the past 15 years. In short, it is not as predictable. There are however at least 5 distinct rainy season patterns that occur over the region.


I'll be there soon convalescing and rehabbing in Ft. White after next Thursday's VA Sponsored surgery.





JB,

..suttle in his Language as always, eh?

: P




LMAO........oh yes....very subtle
Western Gulf disturbance does bear watching, shear in the 20kt range, and this may be in the sweet spot to grow and form into a low pressure. If nothing else, convection growth has been impressive and should continue to increase in intensity. Should move not a great deal in short term.
Quoting 704. opal92nwf:


It counts in the sense that we were experiencing a basin with very unfavorable conditions and it still managed to crank out a category 5 monster in the Bahamas.
Yep..The thing that gets me is now that there are global changes in the weather, maybe Nino will not do the usual thing...We may have a few surprises.
tell me joe....LMAO...i cracking up reading his tweets


Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · Jun 23
Negative IOD look means kiss major el nino goodbye. Physical reality for the hype never there in first place
We will still get 4-6 storms in the peak African wave/Cape Verde period (80% of all Atlantic storms) in spite of SAL suppression but how many after that is anyone's guess depending on actual shear and sst values in the MDR in late-September, October and November.
Always good to se JB point out "hype",......

Harumph, "spit".
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · Jun 21
I am expecting SOI to start falling, but it will be too little too late. Models backing down on strength of enso. ( some never had
99W in da West Pac

Quoting 655. StormTrackerScott:



Getting dry here in FL as well in spots as our normal rainy season pattern is sputtering along. Very isolated rains as opposed to our normal widespread deluge we are accustomed to. No rain at my location in 9 days which is the longest duration without rain all year.







We are actually having probably our most normal/classic rainy seasons here in the Panhandle now since 2004 or 05.

Doesn't look like your area is too dry though. Link
GOES East in slew most likely for the GOM/BOC target.

I'll be there soon convalescing and rehabbing in Ft. White after next Thursday's VA Sponsored surgery.


is that where they're gonna do the surgery?
HUMP DAAYYYY!!!!!!


Interesting thought: Last year we had impressive waves and developing systems before August. I remember thinking how big of a year this is going to be if we are having Cape Verde storms in July.

And now this year it is shaping up to be dead quiet before August...

If anything, I feel it will be a hard feat to repeat to get nothing stronger than a cat. 1 again.
Quoting opal92nwf:

We are actually having probably our most normal/classic rainy seasons here in the Panhandle now since 2004 or 05.

Doesn't look like your area is too dry though. Link


FL has been getting plenty of rain, its just that its so hit and miss within a few miles. I have gotten plenty and im not far away from STS, so no, FL isnt having a 'dry' 'wet' season lol
I hope this doesn't become a boring season like 09 and 13
Quoting 674. StormTrackerScott:

Has anyone noticed the dusty air across FL lately? The sky has been turned to a weird light brown color lately as it appears all this African dust has made it to FL.

You can kinda make it out here on the Winter Park tower cam in Orlando.


Been watching this for months. Sitting on the east coast of FL the full effect can be seen. The orange/brownish clouds are full of dust rolling in from the ocean. The clouds that form over FL are white.. It makes a spectacular contrast that tends to distract me to no end while driving.
In my mind, one of the tropical soap opera questions this year will be how many of the peak period storms getting into/near the Caribbean this year will struggle to intensify because of dry air anomalies or trade wind issues like we have seen the last two seasons, or, otherwise flourish and reach peak intensity into higher end Cat categories if any.
726. Ed22
Quoting 710. DeepSeaRising:

Western Gulf disturbance does bear watching, shear in the 20kt range, and this may be in the sweet spot to grow and form into a low pressure. If nothing else, convection growth has been impressive and should continue to increase in intensity. Should move not a great deal in short term.
yes of-course it bears watching, but you the NHC will say otherwise
ok...last joe enso quote.....the guy is just too funny

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · Jun 21
When will TWC,Climate progress, other agw agenda sites reveal that Super Nino talk likely nonsense
SOI NOT coupling
Quoting 700. DeepSeaRising:

AB high pressure shaping up to be at least as strong as last year, likely stronger causing ridiculous high pressures in the Atlantic, El Nino, SAL stronger than last years; is going to make this a really long season for storm watchers. Great waves off of Africa are going to just poof just like we saw last year. Low pressure systems off Georgia and the Carolina's and maybe something spinning up in the Bahamas might be our only shots at anything of substance. Western Gulf might get a little action too. North Africa's rainy season is not coming to fruition either, so any shot at this SAL lessening in the next two months is not promising. We may be lucky to get two CV's this year. Scott may well be right, 5-7 storms could well be spot on. Late developing waves, if shear ever lessens in the Caribbean, could be of interest in August and September.
I've always been told that is a byproduct of an El Nino, along with the STJ in the Caribbean, and the SAL in the Atlantic. Since 2006 the SAL has been an ongoing study and it's effects to the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, also it's effects to precipitation in Central Africa. Not to sound alarming, but this could have disastrous results if it continues, as drought conditions settle in and droughts have been known to cause billion dollar disasters. Quite honestly if I had to choice I would take a major hurricane making landfall that caused million dollars of damage as opposed to a widespread drought causing billions of dollars in damage and killing more animals and people along the way. You know what I would also like to see done is to see some sampling of the atmosphere in the region where the SAL is strongest and I'm starting to believe that the SAL is corresponding to the low vertical instability we are having in the Atlantic. Why? Because if you look at the Pacific and Indian Ocean the vertical instability is either normal or above normal where SAL is nill. Another thing to look at like you said is the stronger A-B High in recent years bringing dry stable airmass to the Atlantic as well and then you have the strong East Coast Troughs acting like a barrier or deflector shield for storms forming out in the Atlantic. We need to break this trend eventually because it is having an impact worldwide and El Nino surely won't help that cause.
img src="
  • http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image= data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick.gif &model=gfs&area=namerm=1000_500_thick&group=Mode l Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=201406 25 06 UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area
">


This is a GFS 384 hour forecast for mid July. It is perhaps a false statistic but one of the things I look for is for the 540dm thickness contour to vanish. THis indicates at least our side of the arctic is warm. The only years I saw this verify were 2006, 2007, and 2010. It can be a false indicator if the cold air just moves to the other side of the hemisphere but it's still somewhat interesting

followup. Image didn't display and I'm busy.. will try later
June 22, 2014: Dust can be seen exiting the coast of Africa. This dust inhibits tropical cyclone formation by causing dry conditions in the Atlantic.




Explore our best images, animations and more at the Best of ESL page
It sure looks like Texas and Louisiana are in for some heavy rains. Almost all the models are showing this.

Now, the Doc usually posts his blog as soon as I post in the morning, so be ready.

Quoting 724. Skyepony:



Been watching this for months. Sitting on the east coast of FL the full effect can be seen. The orange/brownish clouds are full of dust rolling in from the ocean. The clouds that form over FL are white.. It makes a spectacular contrast that tends to distract me to no end while driving.


Have you seen some of the sunsets?
El Ninos lower Atlantic hurricane numbers but cause weather havoc in other areas; pick your poison.
It sure looks like Texas and Louisiana are in for some heavy rains. Almost all the models are showing this.

Now, the Doc usually posts his blog as soon as I post in the morning, so be ready.



yep....all but that most westerly tip.......and were do i live.....right in that most westerly tip......kiss off rain...nothing but a big tease as i watch the clouds set up to the east of me
Quoting 715. ricderr:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi %uFFFD Jun 21
I am expecting SOI to start falling, but it will be too little too late. Models backing down on strength of enso. ( some never had



It's been falling for a week now. Also models are climbing up the ladder again not falling. I think he is getting frustrated that his modoki El-Nino isn't going to materialize. Just as the Super El-Nino crowd one being me were hammering away a couple of months ago he was doing the opposite and hammering away at the modoki development and in the end everyone was wrong. Still though it appears a strong El-Nino "could" begin to take shape over the coming months.

Holding steady at 1C for 5 days now.



Maybe one of you on this blog can answer this "scientific" question for me...
If you choke a Smurf, what color does he turn? That question has been baffling me for years. I haven't found a real one to choke yet.







Quoting 686. NativeSun:

Hi Scott, did you see JB's article on the El Nino? Basically stated no Super Nino more than likely weak to moderate. I will trust JB more than you on this one as he is an actual meteorologist who as been studying the weather and climate for quite a few years. I would like to see some form of El Nino so we can break this weather pattern we've been in, in the Tropical Atlantic.


As much as anyone I have posted more than enough of JB tweets on here but he shouldnt be calling out anyone..he was forecasting a super el nino as well as a modoki el nino so he is dead wrong as though who were hyping the super el nino..he bought into the models as well..he must have forgotten those little gems..

they all will be wrong when the el nino wont even materialize..
Quoting 738. ncstorm:



As much as anyone I have posted more than enough of JB tweets on here but he shouldnt be calling out anyone..he was forecasting a super el nino as well as a modoki el nino so he is dead wrong as though who were hyping the super el nino..he bought into the models as well..he must have forgotten those little gems..

they all will be wrong when the el nino wont even materialize..LOL..


LOL. Hi ncstorm! Yeah I agree JB really needs to go back and look at his post even from 2 to 3 weeks ago when NIno 3.4 was falling and look at his post now.
whats the gloom talk? the great plains drought is ending and now a hurricane from the south seems to be moving up into the southwest. its getting better. as for sand outbreaks its almost july and this sal over the carib. is common. hurricane season? cv season does not normally start till mid aug. then we might be gloom and dooming it over a major hit. its all well. just another day on planet earth.
Quoting Patrap:
June 22, 2014: Dust can be seen exiting the coast of Africa. This dust inhibits tropical cyclone formation by causing dry conditions in the Atlantic.




Explore our best images, animations and more at the Best of ESL page

Thick as glue here today.
Dread Stuff.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
743. FOREX
Quoting 699. Ed22:

this is a possible invest 91L in the GOM later today. The NHC will rule on it, if they see it fit to do so as always ( 20% Chance) if possible.


No mention of it at all the TWC during their Tropical Update.
Quoting 728. GTstormChaserCaleb:
El Nino surely won't help that cause.


It might help the cause in terms of next year's Atlantic hurricane season as we'll likely see a La Nina develop for next year. What I don't get is why everyone is suddenly thinking there's something wrong with the Atlantic? We recently had 3 of the most active seasons back to back.

2010 19-12-5 165 ACE
2011 19-7-4 126 ACE
2012 19-10-2 133 ACE

Sure, 2013 was an Oddball of a season, but they happen sometimes. 2014 will most likely be below average too, but 2015 could prove to be an active year and will hopefully bring much needed rains to parts of the atlantic that need it.
Quoting 744. Envoirment:



It might help the cause in terms of next year's Atlantic hurricane season as we'll likely see a La Nina develop for next year. What I don't get is why everyone is suddenly thinking there's something wrong with the Atlantic? We recently had 3 of the most active seasons back to back.

2010 19-12-5 165 ACE
2011 19-7-4 126 ACE
2012 19-10-2 133 ACE

Sure, 2013 was an Oddball of a season, but they happen sometimes. 2014 will most likely be below average too, but 2015 could prove to be an active year and will hopefully bring much needed rains to parts of the atlantic that need it.

or much devastation.