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May 2013 Earth's 3rd Warmest May; Central European Floods Cost $22 Billion

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:07 PM GMT on June 20, 2013

May 2013 was the globe's 3rd warmest May since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 10th warmest May on record. The year-to-date period of January - May has been the 8th warmest such period on record. May 2013 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 5th warmest on record. May 2013 was the 339th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in May 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 12th or 11th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during May 2013 was the 3rd lowest in the 47-year period of record, and the lowest May extent on record over Eurasia. Unusually low May snow cover allows the Arctic to heat up much more rapidly than usual, decreasing the temperature difference between the Equator and the Arctic, potentially leading to extreme jet stream configurations, according to research by Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers. An extreme jet stream configuration was responsible for the record $22 billion floods in Central Europe in late May and early June, and it is possible that the unusually low May Northern Hemisphere snow cover contributed to the unusual jet stream behavior. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of May 2013 in his May 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Don't miss his post's impressive photo of a rare strong tornado that hit Italy on May 3.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2013, the 3rd warmest May for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Several regions around the world had record warmth, including north central Siberia, west central Australia, parts of northern and eastern Europe, parts of Libya and Algeria in northern Africa, part of northeastern China, the Philippines, and part of northern South America. Record cold was observed in western Greenland. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Five billion-dollar weather disasters in May
At least five billion-dollar weather disasters hit Earth during May. The most damaging of these was the historic flood disaster that killed at least 23 people in Central Europe in late May and early June. Record flooding unprecedented since the Middle Ages hit major rivers in Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and Slovakia; the Danube River in Passau, Germany hit its highest level since 1501, and the Saale River in Halle, Germany was the highest in its 400-year period of record. Numerous cities recorded their highest flood waters in more than a century, although in some locations the great flood of 2002 was higher. Total damage from the flood is estimated to be $22 billion by Aon Benfield, making the flood the 5th costliest non-U.S. weather disaster in world history. The world-wide tally of billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013 is twelve, and the U.S. total is four, according to the May 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker AON Benfield. This is double the number of billion-dollar disasters from their April 2013 report:

1) Floods in Central Europe, May - June, $22 billion
2) Drought, Brazil, 1/1 - 5/31, $8.3 billion
3) Tornado in Moore, OK and associated U.S. severe weather, 5/18 - 5/22, $5 billion
4) Drought in Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 4/30, $4.2 billion
5) Flooding in Indonesia, 1/20 - 1/27, $3.31 billion
6) Flooding in Australia, 1/21 - 1/30, $2.5 billion
7 Tornadoes and severe weather, U.S., 5/26 - 6/2, $2 billion
8) Winter weather in Europe, 3/12 - 3/31, $1.8 billion
9) Drought, New Zealand, 1/1 - 5/10, $1.6 billion
10) Flooding in Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, $1.3 billion
11) Winter weather, Plains, Midwest, Northeast U.S., 2/24 - 2/27, $1.1 billion
12) Severe weather in the Midwest U.S., 3/18 - 3/20, $1 billion


Figure 2. The Danube River in Grein, Austria was barely kept in check on June 6, 2013, by a floodwall. Image credit: IBS Engineering.


Figure 3. The preliminary $22 billion price tag of the May - June 2013 Central European floods would put that disaster in 5th place on the list of most expensive non-U.S. weather-related disasters.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 14th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during May 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through summer. The large majority of the El Niño models predict neutral conditions will last through the fall of 2013. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.2°C below average as of May 17, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 10th lowest May extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during May reached its tenth lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

proud of the Heat and Lebron on back 2 back! its really amazing to do that twice. congrats!
Quoting bigwes6844:
proud of the Heat and Lebron on back 2 back! its really amazing to do that twice. congrats!


Wade should be given credit as well, 24 points with 10 rebounds with both knees injured is a big feat.

And Battier... He should be the MVP of game 7.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Those were probably Caribbean people Shear is 30-60kts, shear is 10-20 in the Bahamas. Interesting interaction going on right now. The shortwave is lifting out, moisture coming in. The ULL is still present but the inflow moisture is a sign it's dying. Like I said, we'll see.



Have a great night everyone, and Go Heat, and yes you are right, that area in the Bahamas over the Gulf Stream is always a sweet spot for weak tropical systems.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


Wade should be given credit as well, 24 points with 10 rebounds with both knees injured is a big feat.

And Battier... He should be the MVP of game 7.



Have a great night everyone, and Go Heat, and yes you are right, that area in the Bahamas over the Gulf Stream is always a sweet spot for weak tropical systems.
yessir i always respected dWade! he allowed my boy to come to his kingdom so yes DWADE was the man too.




Anyone jealous?

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

TXPQ27 KNES 210331
TCSWNP

A. 05W (BEBINCA)

B. 21/0232Z

C. 18.5N

D. 115.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...0024Z TMI SHOWS CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. CONVECTION
IS SHEARED LT 0.75 DEGREES FROM CENTER FOR A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT ARE
BOTH 2.0.FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY

And there goes the COC
Just snapped these photos about 10 minutes ago.




This weekend is meant to be wet wild windy and wooly(cold).

This will have a key role on the system next week into the week after next.
Happy Summer Solstice Everyone!

Party at Stonehenge..

Happy first day of summer, y'all.
Good morning. 6z GFS is very similar to the 0z run, sending a TS to the northern Gulf Coast in 10 days.

512. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!!!

Though I would drop this link in to show how little darkness there is in North europe around Mid Summer time

Also on view are 2 nasty Systems ... It takes a minute to load !

Satellite: Europe Visual
Interesting model runs this morning by the GFS. It is still a long ways out, but the GFS has now been consistent on a strong tropical storm somewhere in the Gulf in the 10day range. We will have to keep an eye on it the next few days. This storm could be associated with the MJO pulse that some models are putting in the Caribbean in about a week.
00Z
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013062100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_68.png

06Z
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013062106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atltropics_67.png
Good Morning and Happy Longest Day of the Year to All..
15hrs and 2m..

Sun just rising at the beach now..



Here Comes the Sun...

Performed by Mr. Richie Havens..
George Harrison Classic.. :)

515. SLU
Just for laughs.

CFS 912hrs.

Hobart's coldest morning in 5 years

Frost and thick fog formed in and around Hobart this morning as the mercury plummeted.

Hobart had its coldest morning in five years, dropping to a very chilly 0.4 degrees(32.7°F). Frost formed on the grass and on car windscreens in the city and across most inland areas. The temperature has struggled to rise in Hobart as areas of fog have obscured the sunshine, halting most morning warming.

Fog was very thick this morning in Grove and Bushy Park with visibility less than 50 metres at 9am. Bushy Park was the coldest in the region, falling to minus four degrees early in the morning. It only scraped above freezing just before 10am.

Each morning until Tuesday is likely to be quite cold in Hobart with areas of frost and fog likely, particularly for inland areas. The city could easily experience frost again on a number of mornings. Daytime temperatures will remain cold with the mercury reaching between 11 and 13 degrees with mostly sunny days.



© Weatherzone 2013

Hobart had it's hottest temp earlier this year. 107.2°F Jan 4 2013
although the setup for thie hurricane season looks ominus, the SAL has to weaken, before any signs of a cape verde july storm.
Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning Folks!!!

Though I would drop this link in to show how little darkness there is in North europe around Mid Summer time

Also on view are 2 nasty Systems ... It takes a minute to load !

Satellite: Europe Visual


Good morning everybody --- and nice to watch your toy again, VR! :)
Severe thunderstorms have crossed Germany yesterday night, but sparing my city Mainz, only sending some heavy wind gusts and some rains. At other places damage was much worse, but weather is calming down now.

Summarizing reports with a photo gallery (nice pics of lightnings!) on Spiegel English:

Lightning, Floods, Debris: Thunderstorms Hammer Germany

EuroNews video has some dramatic impressions from Switzerland and France:

Heavy rains continue devastation in Switzerland and France
21/06 00:05 CET

BBC weather video (from yesterday) explains what happened: What a scorcher...


So far for now. A good start into the weekend!
there are also signs of another hugh SAL outbreak
Good morning from Dexter!


At least the onshore breeze helps with the stifling heat. Of course, it also keeps the afternoon thunderstorms from ever reaching us. 12 days so far with no rain to speak of, but chances tick up tomorrow - maybe get some then.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 900 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

Quoting stoormfury:
although the setup for thie hurricane season looks ominus, the SAL has to weaken, before any signs of a cape verde july storm.


Quoting stoormfury:
there are also signs of another hugh SAL outbreak




BBL..
Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning Folks!!!

Though I would drop this link in to show how little darkness there is in North europe around Mid Summer time

Also on view are 2 nasty Systems ... It takes a minute to load !

Satellite: Europe Visual


That's beautiful. Thanks for sharing.
Good morning Liz, Marvin, Mik, 49, good afternoon Barb, Good evening Aussie!

How cool is THAT? Greeting friends from around the world..
Happy Friday and the first day of summer to all !!

Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning Folks!!!

Though I would drop this link in to show how little darkness there is in North europe around Mid Summer time

Also on view are 2 nasty Systems ... It takes a minute to load !

Satellite: Europe Visual


That is an incredible view. Thanks!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Good morning Liz, Marvin, Mik, 49, good afternoon Barb, Good evening Aussie!

How cool is THAT? Greeting friends from around the world..


Very cool. At the risk of sounding mushy, some of the best people I've ever talked to are found here on this good doctor's blog. Have a wonderful longest day everyone! I have an early job today, I'll check in with y'all later.
vigorous mesoscale low this morning.

We have evidence that the "loopy" (pun intended) behavior of the Arctic jet stream is the direct cause of the unusual weather extremes we are seeing in the Northern hemisphere.

But the Southern hemisphere is seeing extremes, also; and the Arctic jet stream can't be causing that. Are there similar jet stream anomalies associated with Antarctica? Since there is no open water at the pole to blame for that, what is the presumed cause of the Antarctic jet stream anomalies?
Good Morning All. Atlantic quiet for the moment and E-Pac is on the move. Makes total sense as we head towards the peak periods for their season. As "winter-spring" frontal remnants die down for Conus for the time being (Happy Summer Solstice), the most potential for Atlantic systems this year in the June/July period is usually origination in the Upper/NW Caribbean from traversing ITCZ waves/Colombian low development (which can head North towards the Gulf or Florida), disturbances in the Eastern Gulf (head towards Florida Gulf Coast) or off the East coast of Florida/GA/SC from late-spring/early-summer frontal remnants feeding off the warm gulf stream when sheer relaxes between jet stream pockets off the coast.

Cyclogenesis in these areas however, in this time frame, is relatively rare (the 1.7 storm average) and a tough nut to predict so all we can do is watch the loops for potential disturbances, keep a close eye on sheer values per the CIMSS charts, and keep a close eye on the models for consensus runs. SST's are already there in all of these areas so that it not the issue.

Somebody "hit me" and post the Noaa June/July potential development area charts.......... :)
"Someday I'll wish upon a star
Wake up where the clouds are far behind me
Where trouble melts like lemon drops
High above the chimney tops
That's where you'll find me"


OVER THE RAINBOW
533. VR46L
Quoting barbamz:


Good morning everybody --- and nice to watch your toy again, VR! :)!
Quoting DraytonDave:


That's beautiful. Thanks for sharing.
Quoting keithneese:


That is an incredible view. Thanks!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Good morning Liz, Marvin, Mik, 49, good afternoon Barb, Good evening Aussie!

How cool is THAT? Greeting friends from around the world..


Thanks Folks !

Happy longest Day of the Year in the Northern Hemishpere!
pictures out of calgary dont look good major flooding three days ago euro was hinting at a circulation just offshore n carolina vis sat. it does look like something might be trying to get going
Quoting VR46L:


Thanks Folks !

Happy longest Day of the Year in the Northern Hemishpere!

Happy Shortest day of the year for me. 9hrs and 55 minutes of sunlight for me.

My cousin sent me some photo's from Scotland yesterday. Photo's were taken at 3:40am. it was still light, he could see for about 4 miles.



Geeze, terrible news from northern India just won't stop:

Toll in Uttarakhand climbs to 207; over 50,000 still stranded
PTI | Jun 21, 2013, 04.35 PM IST

DEHRADUN: The terrible magnitude of nature's fury continued to unfold in Uttarakhand today where 40 bodies of flood victims were found, taking the toll in the disaster to 207 even as rescue workers raced to evacuated over 9000 stranded in Kedarnath and Badrinath.

The toll was expected to rise as Uttarakhand principal secretary Rakesh Sharma said casualty figures can be "shockingly high".

Home minister Sushilkumar Shinde said in Delhi that, "So far, 207 people have lost their lives. But the toll may go up as debris in many areas is yet to be cleared".

50,000 people were still stranded in different inaccessible parts of Uttarakhand, he said.

(Whole article with embedded video see link above)

BBC weather video on this tragedy with some shocking videos in the background

And there are more:
Quoting mikatnight:
"Someday I'll wish upon a star
Wake up where the clouds are far behind me
Where trouble melts like lemon drops
High above the chimney tops
That's where you'll find me"


OVER THE RAINBOW


I am an active guitar player (in a band right now rehearsing for some Fall shows) and Beck is a genius who keeps getting better and better even though pushing 70. This is a great clip and I really like his version of a "Day in Life/Beatles" that he busted out at the Clapton Crossroads festival in Texas two years ago. We do the Beck/Stewart version of People Get Ready as part of the potential encore package (at my suggestion of course); tastiest licks in the business. Guitar players don't like to talk about Beck too much because nobody can even get close to what he is able to do. We can all pull off Hendrix/Ray Vaughn tunes but with Beck stuff, at his best, we just nod our heads in awe and go back to hit the books after seeing him play. He is the equivalent of the "Cloud" for many players; you know he is out there but unattainable.

Now back to the weather.......................(notice the cloud reference I had to fit in)
notice the GFS has a storm east of the islands on the 24th June. Is the tropical wave near 24W the seedling for this disturbance?. or is it that the GFS is back to it's old tricks, of creating phantom storms.
Good Morning
Holy cow! The 10-day Wunderground temperature forecast for PAFA (Fairbanks (Alaska) International Airport) is insane. If this is anything close to true, this summer is fast turning into the Russian summer of 2010 -- or even more bizarre than that.

6/21 81/59
6/22 79/59
6/23 86/55
6/24 86/59
6/25 95/70
6/26 104/68

6/27 93/68
6/28 91/64
6/29 90/64
6/30 91/63

Source: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/ge tForecast?query=pafa [Scroll to the bottom to find forecast]
Beck is so great that he can dress however he wants along with the wigs........We dare not question the Man.
Quoting ClimateChange:
Holy cow! The 10-day Wunderground temperature forecast for PAFA (Fairbanks (Alaska) International Airport) is insane. If this is anything close to true, this summer is fast turning into the Russian summer of 2010 -- or even more bizarre than that.

6/21 81/59
6/22 79/59
6/23 86/55
6/24 86/59
[b]6/25 95/70
6/26 104/68[/b]
6/27 93/68
6/28 91/64
6/29 90/64
6/30 91/63

Source: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/ge tForecast?query=pafa [Scroll to the bottom to find forecast]


Temps below/above average. Source with panel to forecasts for the next eight days.

Or look here
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is such a bad pattern:

It is.
Quoting litloldlady:
We have evidence that the "loopy" (pun intended) behavior of the Arctic jet stream is the direct cause of the unusual weather extremes we are seeing in the Northern hemisphere.

But the Southern hemisphere is seeing extremes, also; and the Arctic jet stream can't be causing that. Are there similar jet stream anomalies associated with Antarctica? Since there is no open water at the pole to blame for that, what is the presumed cause of the Antarctic jet stream anomalies?

Good question. Tentative answer:Link
At this rate, we can get that pesky ice melted, and start drilling for more oil and methane in just a few more years. Russian and European shipping opportunities will improve also.
546. yoboi
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
1 of 2

Hurricane scorecard. ..

Guys, im closing the poll soon...on the Monday after this upcoming one.

I just need to ask the following bloggers about their forecast prediction. .. Its just to verify, nothing personal.

Yoboi...27-18-6
MsZola...8-4-3
Aussie. ..18-25, 9-13, 3-6
Birthmark...12-7-1
Galveston hurricane. ..28-16-10
South Tampa. ..12-3-0
Hurricane Andre...17-21, 11-15, 7-11.

Again, just for verification. Nothing else.
You may know why.




nah i am good..I am on pace so far....
547. VR46L
Quoting AussieStorm:

Happy Shortest day of the year for me. 9hrs and 55 minutes of sunlight for me.

My cousin sent me some photo's from Scotland yesterday. Photo's were taken at 3:40am. it was still light, he could see for about 4 miles.





Sorry Aussie , I forgot about ya ! My Bad


Yeah it starts getting twilight @10.00pm and not completely dark to 11.30 and dawn starts just after 3 its the one really cool thing about living far north !
Morning all! No surprise to see the GFS finally jump on the development bandwagon with the MJO phase coming around, showing genesis on both the 00z and 06z by 165 hours or so. I expect that this will be pushed out a little further in the timeline.
Quoting ClimateChange:
Holy cow! The 10-day Wunderground temperature forecast for PAFA (Fairbanks (Alaska) International Airport) is insane. If this is anything close to true, this summer is fast turning into the Russian summer of 2010 -- or even more bizarre than that.

6/21 81/59
6/22 79/59
6/23 86/55
6/24 86/59
6/25 95/70
6/26 104/68

6/27 93/68
6/28 91/64
6/29 90/64
6/30 91/63

Source: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/ge tForecast?query=pafa [Scroll to the bottom to find forecast]
That's a crazy forecast, for sure. But the official NWS forecast for Fairbanks isn't quite so bullish, especially after Day 4:

6/21 80/54
6/22 77/50
6/23 80/56
6/24 84/58
6/25 83/59
6/26 82/61
6/27 81/
It will be interesting watching these systems in the Pacific this coming week. While I believe they won't have any impact on land, these storms will provide from an interesting study of how tropical cyclones interact with each other. This hopefully will also turn out to be an interesting case of the Fujiwara effect. Hoping these fish storms will provide us with a brilliant meteorological show.

I kind of learned about something similar to this in my Synoptic 2 class this Spring, except we were talking about barotropic vorticty lobe anomalies and how they can influence one another and actually make each other stronger, it was also interesting because these lobes can almost retrograde if the advection of planetary vorticity was strong enough.
Quoting stoormfury:
although the setup for thie hurricane season looks ominus, the SAL has to weaken, before any signs of a cape verde july storm.


It's June, high SAL is to be expected. Any development that occurs will take place in the Caribbean is my guess.
Euro appears to re-develop Barry remnants in the E. Pac.

It does not see the GFS alleged Caribbean storm at all though.
Quoting Birthmark:

Good question. Tentative answer:Link


Current Southern Hemisphere jet stream.



Loop
Coldest Journey comes to a halt
by Deidre Mussen; last updated 16:03 20/06/2013

Think the polar blast sweeping New Zealand is hard to bear? Spare a thought then for the Coldest Journey team, stuck on the Antarctic plateau in temperatures of about -50C.

The five-man team have had to abandon their attempt to cross Antarctica in midwinter, which would have been a world first.

They had only managed to complete 313km of their near-4000km journey since setting out from Crown Bay in Queen Maud Land three months ago.

They were supposed to reach McMurdo Sound, near Antarctica New Zealand's Scott Base, before the official end of winter on August 19.

The team's leader, British veteran polar explorer Brian Newham, said that after travelling through a difficult mountain range, they had encountered a massive field of crevasses that appeared to stretch a further 100km south.


Read more and watch the interesting (and cold! Brrr!) embedded video in the link above.

Map of the route the expedition wanted to take


Map of cooling and warming tendencies at antarctica, which maybe won't show up here.
This map may explain why the attempt to cross the south pole failed. But note the warmer waters all around antarctica which are gnawing at the ice (when and whre the glaciers reach the ocean) from below.
Quoting barbamz:
Coldest Journey comes to a halt
DEIDRE MUSSEN
Last updated 16:03 20/06/2013

Think the polar blast sweeping New Zealand is hard to bear? Spare a thought then for the Coldest Journey team, stuck on the Antarctic plateau in temperatures of about -50C.

The five-man team have had to abandon their attempt to cross Antarctica in midwinter, which would have been a world first.

They had only managed to complete 313km of their near-4000km journey since setting out from Crown Bay in Queen Maud Land three months ago.

They were supposed to reach McMurdo Sound, near Antarctica New Zealand's Scott Base, before the official end of winter on August 19.

The team's leader, British veteran polar explorer Brian Newham, said that after travelling through a difficult mountain range, they had encountered a massive field of crevasses that appeared to stretch a further 100km south.


Read more and watch the interesting (and cold! Brrr!) embedded video in the link above.

Map of the route the expedition wanted to take here


Source.
This map may explain why the attempt to cross the south pole failed. But note the warmer waters all around antarctica which are gnawing at the ice (when and whre the glaciers reach the ocean) from below.


Sounds like they need a new team leader.
Quoting VR46L:


Sorry Aussie , I forgot about ya ! My Bad


Yeah it starts getting twilight @10.00pm and not completely dark to 11.30 and dawn starts just after 3 its the one really cool thing about living far north !


I have never experienced twilight. Would seem weird.
557. VR46L
Click on images for outlook and categories




Quoting AussieStorm:


Current Southern Hemisphere jet stream.



Loop

Looks a heckuva lot better than the NH jetstream. Link
Happy First Day of Summer/Winter!!

With weather patterns shifting, and seasons moving around, I'm glad there is something physical and stable on the calendar.
Long way out , but interesting..




The total changes in sunset was 59° from a southwest sunset in the winter to almost a Northwest sunset in the summer.



All thanks to the tilt of the Earth on it’s axis.
What invest number was pre-Barry?


"I kind of learned about something similar to this in my Synoptic 2 class this Spring, except we were talking about barotropic vorticty lobe anomalies and how they can influence one another and actually make each other stronger, it was also interesting because these lobes can almost retrograde if the advection of planetary vorticity was strong enough. "

Worst pickup line ever.

And I hate it when my lobe anomaly goes retrograde. But at my age there's not much I can do about it. I heard there's something you can take, but it involves procedures.

Seriously though, one of the great things about this blog is how much you can learn from here if you delve into what people are saying. I figure in another month or so I might have have a clue about what you just said.
Good morning all from sunny Antigua. It's a great day to be alive, enjoy it.
(click to enlarge)
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
What invest number was pre-Barry?



93L
Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning and Happy Longest Day of the Year to All..
15hrs and 2m..

Sun just rising at the beach now..



Here Comes the Sun...

Performed by Mr. Richie Havens..
George Harrison Classic.. :)


Good morning pcola, and to all the other folks here this morning, and not forgetting the ships at sea. It has been a beautiful couple of day down here at Panama City Beach. Looks just like the picture pcola posted. Had a spectacular land thunderstorm last night that moved out over the Gulf and gave us a good hour long light show. We are all the way at the west end of PCB, and I can look east from my balcony and see what looks like a smaller version of Miami Beach spreading as far as the eye can see. All those hundreds of millions of hotels and condos right up to the high tide line. Whenever the next "big one" hits, it's not going to be pretty.

I see Barry is buried (am I the first one to think of that? No? Darn!) and the Pacific is starting to get more active. It appears that at least one forecaster at the NHC must be planning an early start to the weekend:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
$$
Forecaster Avila


Can't make it much shorter than that. :-) Weren't they supposed to be getting out some crayons today?

Time to head back home today as we have a seasonable first day of summer. Pcola, you lucked out this time, but well be back later this summer. Then we'll get the one that flattens PCB. :-0
Quoting islander44:


"I kind of learned about something similar to this in my Synoptic 2 class this Spring, except we were talking about barotropic vorticty lobe anomalies and how they can influence one another and actually make each other stronger, it was also interesting because these lobes can almost retrograde if the advection of planetary vorticity was strong enough. "

Worst pickup line ever.


Really? Lol :D
Quoting mikatnight:
"Someday I'll wish upon a star
Wake up where the clouds are far behind me
Where trouble melts like lemon drops
High above the chimney tops
That's where you'll find me"


OVER THE RAINBOW


Wow, thanks for posting that. Enough to cause ocular precipitation.*

* (mandatory weather reference.)
My Mom asked me what this season is going to be like and would the Hurricanes be "normal".
I said there is no strong El Nino,
Forecast is the same as last year if that is "normal"
But that the weak pressure differential around the pole has caused such a weak and wacky jet stream that I really have no idea what the weather will be like.
I tried to explain the DiPole bringing winds across the arctic rather than around and what that means for Sea Ice in the Arctic Ocean.
It didn't seem like I gave her an answer she could readily come to grips with.

Any better suggestions?
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
What invest number was pre-Barry?

92L
Quoting hydrus:
Long way out , but interesting..


Clearly, the GFS started early this morning...
Quoting biff4ugo:


My Mom asked me what this season is going to be like and would the Hurricanes be "normal"

Tell her, "Yes".
Quoting AussieStorm:

92L




No it was not. 92L was a bust. It was 93L that became the B storm
Quoting biff4ugo:
My Mom asked me what this season is going to be like and would the Hurricanes be "normal".
I said there is no strong El Nino,
Forecast is the same as last year if that is "normal"
But that the weak pressure differential around the pole has caused such a weak and wacky jet stream that I really have no idea what the weather will be like.
I tried to explain the DiPole bringing winds across the arctic rather than around and what that means for Sea Ice in the Arctic Ocean.
It didn't seem like I gave her an answer she could readily come to grips with.

Any better suggestions?


Just make her watch every episode of Doomsday Preppers...
Quoting muddertracker:


Clearly, the GFS started early this morning...
Good morning M.T..If the GFS still has something going 5 days out, i would count on some kind of development.
new storm to watch
Top of the morning to everyone:

In OK we are doing fine, temperatures are nice for this time of year.

Forecast: warm, but not too warm, soon to be followed by hot and even hotter.

Looks as if the wet part of Spring/Summer is winding down, and the dry part is kicking in. Thankfully e got as much rain as we did, will help keep us from hitting 100 F anytime soon.

Models in the EPAC hint at something interesting to come, with the Atlantic staying quiet - at least for the next 10 days.

Hope you all have a fantastic day (afternoon/night)! will pop by a bit later.

Cheers :D
Quoting hydrus:
Long way out , but interesting..


whoa sudden change there....must be the mjo
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning M.T..If the GFS still has something going 5 days out, i would count on some kind of development.


Mornin', Hydrus. Yes, I agree. Looking for the MJO to come back real soon. This blog would explode if the GFS is right. In 2-3 weeks, the GOMEX will be prime.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


whoa sudden change there....must be the mjo
There is some indication that this MJO will have mojo,or"punch" I like to say.If anything,it will cover a vast area..
Quoting muddertracker:


Mornin', Hydrus. Yes, I agree. Looking for the MJO to come back real soon. This blog would explode if the GFS is right. In 2-3 weeks, the GOMEX will be prime.


Hey muddertracker

Nice to see ya! you and your family survived the thunderstorms and tornadoes in Chicago and Oklahoma.

Mind me asking if you plan on doing any other traveling this year? If so where - so we can have NWS issue warnings in advance :D
Update on Prof. Petley's landslide blog: 21 June 2013
The Kedarnath debris flow disaster in Uttarakhand
(Annoyingly still an earlier norwegian video with soundtrack is starting too, when opening the blog - at least when I do)
BBL

I'd like to know how the hail probabilities on Severe Thunderstorm Watch 334 are possible...

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes 
Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (<2%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (10%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
Mod (50%)
As of a couple days ago..
587. VR46L
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
What invest number was pre-Barry?
Quoting hurricanes2018:


Looks like the Fujiwara that the CMC were seeing earlier in the week might be kicking off ....

This shows the high pressure cell bringing the record high temps to Alaska very well..
Quoting daddyjames:


Hey muddertracker

Nice to see ya! you and your family survived the thunderstorms and tornadoes in Chicago and Oklahoma.

Mind me asking if you plan on doing any other traveling this year? If so where - so we can have NWS issue warnings in advance :D


LOL! It's all good. No other travel plans this summer. We got to see a pretty impressive lightning show in Chicago, and I don't even want to talk about OKC! The family will have to carefully consider that Oklahoma trip in the future!
Morning Everyone! Happy Friday. And more important, Happy First Day of Summer!! :) VR46L -- Gorgeous picture you posted this morning. Weatherbow -- LOVE the different color pretty fonts you used. Islandgirl (564) -- SO TRUE. Hope everyone kicks off the best season of the year safely with boating, swimming, grilling, beach volleyball, tanning, hiking, throwing out a line, or whatever makes you happy. Here in Southern Illinois, I can do ALL of the above today--and just might. The tanning and boating is definitely gonna happen today though. :D

Not many limitations with a 90 degree day with crystal clear blue skies. :-)

Hope everyone has a great weekend!!

Natalie.



New watch in South Dakota:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

SDC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-031-033-035 -041-043-045-
047-049-053-055-059-063-065-069-071-073-075-081-08 5-089-093-095-
103-105-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-129-137-21 2100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0335.130621T1410Z-130621T2100Z/

SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AURORA BEADLE BENNETT
BROWN BRULE BUFFALO
BUTTE CAMPBELL CHARLES MIX
CORSON CUSTER DAVISON
DEWEY DOUGLAS EDMUNDS
FALL RIVER FAULK GREGORY
HAAKON HAND HARDING
HUGHES HYDE JACKSON
JERAULD JONES LAWRENCE
LYMAN MCPHERSON MEADE
MELLETTE PENNINGTON PERKINS
POTTER SANBORN SHANNON
SPINK STANLEY SULLY
TODD TRIPP WALWORTH
ZIEBACH
Interesting probs for the new watch in SD:

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (<2%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)
Quoting hydrus:


Holy upward motion, Batman!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I am an active guitar player (in a band right now rehearsing for some Fall shows) and Beck is a genius who keeps getting better and better even though pushing 70. This is a great clip and I really like his version of a "Day in Life/Beatles" that he busted out at the Clapton Crossroads festival in Texas two years ago. We do the Beck/Stewart version of People Get Ready as part of the potential encore package (at my suggestion of course); tastiest licks in the business. Guitar players don't like to talk about Beck too much because nobody can even get close to what he is able to do. We can all pull off Hendrix/Ray Vaughn tunes but with Beck stuff, at his best, we just nod our heads in awe and go back to hit the books after seeing him play. He is the equivalent of the "Cloud" for many players; you know he is out there but unattainable.

Now back to the weather.......................(notice the cloud reference I had to fit in)


Listened to Beck Bogart and Appice Superstition yesterday.. downloaded it from You Tube, then ripped out the audio for my MP3 player..I have a TON of old live performances saved....

Quoting muddertracker:


Holy upward motion, Batman!
Usually, when the pulse is that wide, its not that intense, but on occasion it will still be very strong.
Quoting muddertracker:


LOL! It's all good. No other travel plans this summer. We got to see a pretty impressive lightning show in Chicago, and I don't even want to talk about OKC! The family will have to carefully consider that Oklahoma trip in the future!


Really happy to hear you all are doing fine!

Hope you and the fam have a fantastic day, and a quiet (weatherwise) summer.
;D
The summer solstice has passed. Winter is coming :-)
GFS sure isn't wasting any time with that Gulf storm. Yesterday is developed it around 192 hours and sent it to the west Gulf Coast in 300 hours. This morning it develops it around 174 hours and sends it into eastern Gulf Coast in 240 hours.
Link

This is a link to an amazing picture of the flood in Canada.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
GFS sure isn't wasting any time with that Gulf storm. Yesterday is developed it around 192 hours and sent it to the west Gulf Coast in 300 hours. This morning is develops it around 174 hours and sends it into eastern Gulf Coast in 240 hours.
It will flip flop for a while. We will know in a few days whether or not it is something to be concerned with.
In the near term, we've got this to watch...a low-pressure area developing on the tail-end of a dying cold front.

Pressures are high, but who knows?



Big difference Y/Y in the U.S. with record temperatures. Data is from the U.S. Records

Hi Max Hi Min Low Max Low Min
YTD 5,870 7,833 9,257 7,315
LY 19,676 17,202 3.128 2.051
Hmm... GFS is forecasting a storm very similar to hurricane Cindy of 2005 in the first week of july....
It is getting consistent, but I still want to see a little more consistency before I put much faith in it. It still is pretty remarkable that the GFS is being consistent in the 7-10 day range. It isn't often that a model is consistent in that range. I would be interested in seeing a study that evaluates the correlation between consistency in the 7-10 day range and the actual verification of these model runs.

I live in Tallahassee now and I'm about to start my Master's Degree in Meteorology this would be an awesome intro to the Hurricane Season. Hate to be wishcasting as a meteorologist but I am taking a graduate course called Tropical Meteorology 2 taught by Dr. Hart in the Fall. Hoping to do some case studies of a storm that will impact the FL region.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
GFS sure isn't wasting any time with that Gulf storm. Yesterday is developed it around 192 hours and sent it to the west Gulf Coast in 300 hours. This morning it develops it around 174 hours and sends it into eastern Gulf Coast in 240 hours.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In the near term, we've got this to watch...a low-pressure area developing on the tail-end of a dying cold front.

Pressures are high, but who knows?




I think it might have a 10% chance, but then again, shear isnt really low
Has anyone got a spare ski jacket? I need one, I'm freezing cold
Quoting barbamz:
Update on Prof. Petley's landslide blog: 21 June 2013
The Kedarnath debris flow disaster in Uttarakhand
(Annoyingly still an earlier norwegian video with soundtrack is starting too, when opening the blog - at least when I do)
BBL


I think we have an unfolding disaster of huge magnitude in India.
Anyone have some Euro model graphics? I want to see if the Euro is agreeing with the GFS yet.
Quoting boltdwright:
Anyone have some Euro model graphics? I want to see if the Euro is agreeing with the GFS yet.

This is all it has at the time the GFS has the storm making landfall...

611. VR46L
Gosh this looks Horrible !! Is Gro on to declare a blob alert ?

nasty looking cell there SE of Rapid City:
Y1 71 dBZ 36,000 ft. 69 kg/m%uFFFD 100% chance 100% chance >4.00 in. 25 knots WNW (282)
W6 62 dBZ 41,000 ft. 42 kg/m%uFFFD 60% chance 100% chance 2.00 in. 19 knots WSW (243)






Quoting weatherbow:
Interesting probs for the new watch in SD:

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (<2%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)
613. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In the near term, we've got this to watch...a low-pressure area developing on the tail-end of a dying cold front.

Pressures are high, but who knows?





Probably not, but some mid-level support in the form of an inverted trough. GFS consistent with this weakness in the ridge for several days-but has seemed a bit weaker with each run. And, a weak trough at the surface. But hey, it's Friday!

(click images to open in new window)


06/21 06Z GFS 700mb-valid 18Z Friday


06/21 06Z GFS 10m winds-valid 18Z Friday
Canada floods

BBC Video
Quoting AussieStorm:
Has anyone got a spare ski jacket? I need one, I'm freezing cold
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In the near term, we've got this to watch...a low-pressure area developing on the tail-end of a dying cold front.

Pressures are high, but who knows?





It looked like the the best local blob watch for the day. Most likely it's going to come back to land before it has a chance but it shows how gamely these waves are this year. MJO doesn't much favor it but it's gonna give a shot.. It's been like this lately with alot of invests & gamely swirls worldwide. I think there is six storm floaters up in my blog right now..

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is all it has at the time the GFS has the storm making landfall...

Quoting boltdwright:
Anyone have some Euro model graphics? I want to see if the Euro is agreeing with the GFS yet.


The Euro always takes his time to come on aboard with the GFS...The Euro seems to be the confirmation
Quoting stormchaser19:


The Euro always takes his time to come on aboard with the GFS...The Euro seems to be the confirmation


LOL.

Yes - sure seems to be. All I know when they all agree - lookout.
Quoting Skyepony:


If this develops will it come on shore or head out to sea?
Quoting stormchaser19:


The Euro always takes his time to come on aboard with the GFS...The Euro seems to be the confirmation
With the new upgrades, the models will be scrutinized carefully. I am interested to see how well they do.
Hong Kong Observatory analysis on BEBINCA

WTSS20 VHHH 211346
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 211200 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1305) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
Quoting hydrus:
With the new upgrades, the models will be scrutinized carefully. I am interested to see how well they do.


NHC has some questions about WCOSS GFS:

Excerpt:

Progress has been slowed by WCOSS instability. To clear up an earlier misunderstanding, the current GFS parallel is as close as possible to the CCS. Differences are coming due to round-off errors, bug fixes, and ICs, not data differences as previously reported. The random number generator used in the analysis is different, for example. Verification is close between the two systems, and it doesn’t appear that any systematic differences exist.

NHC: WCOSS GFS does seem to spin things up less than the operational GFS, and that may be a good thing. It may also be less overly cyclogenic. Is it possible to see stats on the tropics? If not, we may abstain without a full evaluation.

EMC: Because of a TCVITALS issue, it hasn’t been running stably for a long enough period of time to get stats. That’d scare me if I was evaluating.



Blog would be depressed with less spin thats for sure :)
Today's MJO model forecasts:



The GFS forecast is crazy, almost off the graph strong with the incoming pulse. UKMET is a good cross between the GFS and ECMWF as it gets towards the Atlantic, it probably has pretty close to the right idea.
Good Morning..had a nice shower a lil while ago........
Hydrus something interesting in awhile huh.............
Quoting LargoFl:
Hydrus something interesting in awhile huh.............
Good Morning Largo how have you been?
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning..had a nice shower a lil while ago........
This was yesterday morning on US 19 going up to Sunset Point Rd.

Quoting LargoFl:
Hydrus something interesting in awhile huh.............
Yep...And that is in the right spot to become a serious problem.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Has anyone got a spare ski jacket? I need one, I'm freezing cold


Good morning, afternoon, evening everyone!

*tosses Aussie a parka* There you go Aussie. I haven't used it in years. Do you want my mukluks too? :)

Lindy
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Today's MJO model forecasts:



The GFS forecast is crazy, almost off the graph strong with the incoming pulse. UKMET is a good cross between the GFS and ECMWF as it gets towards the Atlantic, it probably has pretty close to the right idea.
Good morning..I said earlier that it is covering a huge area. It will have an impact on the basin.

This is a very (!) impressive video of the kind of weather which we had yesterday in parts of Germany. Video was taken in Bavaria (Straubing)

I just had a phone call to my parents, living 45 miles away from my place in southern Hassia. They've experienced a very frightening and very sudden sort of weather explosion yesterday night, downing trees and flooding the basement. Though I gave them a general warning earlier I couldn't warn them of this particular cell because it - as I saw in real time on radar - developed from one moment to the other right over their heads. My mother says she saw a lot of little watersprouds dancing on the flooded street in front of their house during this downburst. She never saw anything like this and she was shaking from fear. - Today my brother in law was busy with his chain saws to clean up the damage in their garden.
Good Afternoon, The EPAC is starting to light up a bit. MJO looks interesting Coming in by late next week and lasting probably to whole month of July. GFS already have a storm developing in the Caribbean from a wave and deepening as it comes through the Central Gulf into the Panhandle in about 7-10 days. GFS is always good at sniffing out development.
Quoting barbamz:

This is a very (!) impressive video of the kind of weather which we had yesterday in parts of Germany. Video was taken in Bavaria (Straubing)

I just had a phone call to my parents, living 45 miles away from my place in southern Hassia. They've experienced a very frightening and very sudden sort of weather explosion yesterday night, downing trees and flooding the basement. Though I gave them a general warning earlier I couldn't warn them of this particular cell because it - as I saw it in real time on satellite - developed from one moment to the other right over their heads. My mother says she saw a lot of little watersprouds dancing on the flooded street before their house during this downburst. She never saw something like this and she was shaking from fear. - Today my brother in law was busy with his chain saws to clean up the damage in their garden.


Very freaky! We just don't get that kind of weather, here in Europe. Well, we didn't. Anyone would think the climate was changing.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Listened to Beck Bogart and Appice Superstition yesterday.. downloaded it from You Tube, then ripped out the audio for my MP3 player..I have a TON of old live performances saved....

I think you and I would get along very well, Indianriverguy. Thanks for that clip, it brought back some very good memories, of a time when we didn't have video games or computer games, or any of that. We had fun the old fashioned way after school.

With regard to the MJO pulse everyone is talking about, I wonder ... is this the start of anything similar to what we saw in the more active years. That is, how did the MJO's compare relatively to quieter years, in terms of pulse strength and perhaps breadth? Has anyone done a comparison of past MJO cycles as a method for looking at possible analogs? That would be interesting, and perhaps something Dr. Master's could help us out with. 2004 and 2005 in particular, would be two that I would want to look at on the high end, for example.
Wind Shear looks to be hostile now; but is expected to decrease quite a bit and become more favorable for development. 



Although SAL dust looks unfavorable; the Eastern Atlantic is predict to receive some upward motion from what looks to be a strong MJO pulse. This should erode the dust quite a bit and support an active African monsoon. Just something to watch!!!



Look at the Forecast by July 10 to the end of the month a lot of upward motion all through the Atlantic very impressive.
637. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's a crazy forecast, for sure. But the official NWS forecast for Fairbanks isn't quite so bullish, especially after Day 4:

6/21 80/54
6/22 77/50
6/23 80/56
6/24 84/58
6/25 83/59
6/26 82/61
6/27 81/




Such confusion only a few days out.....and we are told what to expect with temps in the yr 2100.....
All kidding aside here.

I'm in absolute shock with the flooding in Alberta today. Probably one of my favourite places in the world to be. My thoughts and prayers to all affected by that mess.

I've a question to anyone that can help me here.

We have what we call "Christmas winds" that happen in the winter time. We know they are coming and that's expected.

BUT we have now been dealing with what we're referring to as the "second wind" (forgive the pun). It's been weeks and weeks and weeks of this. Can any of you tell me (because I haven't a clue how to do it) if these winds will let up in the near future?

Thanks in advance to anyone that can help answer this.

Lindy
Quoting barbamz:

This is a very (!) impressive video of the kind of weather which we had yesterday in parts of Germany. Video was taken in Bavaria (Straubing)

I just had a phone call to my parents, living 45 miles away from my place in southern Hassia. They've experienced a very frightening and very sudden sort of weather explosion yesterday night, downing trees and flooding the basement. Though I gave them a general warning earlier I couldn't warn them of this particular cell because it - as I saw in real time on radar - developed from one moment to the other right over their heads. My mother says she saw a lot of little watersprouds dancing on the flooded street in front of their house during this downburst. She never saw anything like this and she was shaking from fear. - Today my brother in law was busy with his chain saws to clean up the damage in their garden.



This new atmosphere has become a new Beast,..as we add Warmth to the Planet globally, we unleash the following.

A 1F increase in Global temps, produces a 10% increase in Global Water Vapor. More Water Vapor holds more energy, and well,were seeing that more and more,Globally.

A PHD once told me, the atmosphere trends toward chaos, but now, in a more potent fashion.

As we add more Co2 things are going to become even more unstable,atmospherically.


Good afternoon and happy astronomical summer!


This video was taken ca. 55 miles south of my place at Mannheim. Parts of this storm system reached my city Mainz an hour later. A member of a german weather blog managed it to take an impressive photo though it already was quite dark.
Thursday will be the 56th anniversary of hurricane Audrey. Baton Rouge had wind gusts of 69mph which was sufficient enough to blow the large antenna down on our house(back then some houses had 20 to 25 foot antennas perched on top of their house to receive TV signals). Most of my memory is of the drowning deaths that occurred in Cameron Parish from the surge. There are charts and graphs explaining the conditions at the time that allowed Audrey to rapidly intensify and there is a mention of a polar trough. I was wondering if the conditions back in June of 1957 to allow Audrey to become, I think, the only Cat 4 to strike the U.S. in June was such a highly unusual set of atmospheric conditions and that's why such early season powerful storms are so rare. Would appreciate anybody's input.
Quoting Patrap:



This new atmosphere has become a new Beast,..as we add Warmth to the Planet globally, we unleash the following.

A 1F increase in Global temps, produces a 10% increase in Global Water Vapor. More Water Vapor holds more energy, and well,were seeing that more and more,Globally.

A PHD once told me, the atmosphere trends toward chaos, but now, in a more potent fashion.

As we add more Co2 things are going to become even more unstable,atmospherically.


I mentioned the same thing a few times and was ridiculed. It should not be all that long before they realize that the atmosphere and the Earth are both at the same time undergoing major changes. Then I hope they remember what they said and enjoy a crow sandwich.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Very impressive blow up of thunderstorms.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In the near term, we've got this to watch...a low-pressure area developing on the tail-end of a dying cold front.

Pressures are high, but who knows?





Wasn't there a model last week showing a trough split and it moving into South Carolina?
Quoting yoboi:




Such confusion only a few days out.....and we are told what to expect with temps in the yr 2100.....
Oh, you poor thing. You're still confused by the major differences between weather and climate?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In the near term, we've got this to watch...a low-pressure area developing on the tail-end of a dying cold front.

Pressures are high, but who knows?





yea just like we dont have enough rain here in NC