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Max Mayfield to retire as head of NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:22 PM GMT on August 25, 2006

Max Mayfield announced today that he is stepping down as head of the National Hurricane Center at the end of the year, acccording to press reports from the Miami Herald and Florida Sun Sentinel. Mayfield, 57, admitted that the last two hurricane seasons wore him out. Ed Rappaport, the center's deputy director and a veteran forecaster may be next in line for the job, after Max steps down on January 3. Max's expert guidance of NHC has no doubt saved many lives, and I will miss his calm and intelligent presence at the helm of NHC.


Max Mayfield at the 2006 American Meteorological Society meeting, extolling what he wants engraved on his tombstone: "Don't look at the center track forecast line! Look at the cone of possible center locations."

I'll have an update on TD 5 between 4pm and 5pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Cantore is a sausage jockey...

But moving swiftly on, I hear 97L is now Ernesto. Looks like those poor folks in Haiti will get slaughtered again I suppose.
projected path has shifted a little N.
Good for Grand Cayman but not Little Cayman and Cayman Brac or Jamaica

GS- we are always happy... can't you tell?
the nhc just gave the word to TWC..... IT IS OFFICIALLY OFFICIAL ts eRNESTO.....
hmmmmm.......now i need a massage
Gulf, baby......where's my boat drink?
..seems Ernie on way to gaining the structure and Height needed to become all he can be...Now..will the ULL continue on a pace ahead of him..And can he navigate as well as Strenghten?
WTNT35 KNHC 252030
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF
HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
660 MILES...1065 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N...67.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
27 windows..all this talk about Cantore is giving me a complex. I've still got hair and Evel Knievel couldn't use my nose for a ramp, and somehow I'm feeling inferior about that.
IT IS OFFICIALLY OFFICIAL ts eRNESTO.....

caps still on...
Hey Gulf

No I am not at all... Did you get a chance to see the GFDL and where they have it???

Taco:0)
Cantore will be in Biloxi tomorrow for Katrina anniversary...that might be a sign of things to come..seeing as how storms follow him
To the doubters...

THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE
NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA.
SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS
BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN
CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WARNING!!! This post contains the original opinions of KShurricane. This is not an official forecast and any resemblence to reality is a coincidence.

I have to agree with Gulf in this case. The main COC is under the convection. I'm going to take a longshot guess and say that Ernesto will end up in Mississippi or Alabama as a Cat 2 or 3. Has the more westerly track toward Texas pretty much been ruled out?
If we all liked the same thing, the world would be terribly boring.

I think bald men are hot. Just me I guess.

By the way, my husband still has a full head of hair.
LOL STS, Cantore=Hurricane Magnet.
Ric....c'mon, I can rip those knots right outta those muscles for ya.
gulf
I exchange ideas on this blog because we can all learn something from each other as well as pursue a topic we are interested in. That I happened to be right on the center being exposed doesn't mean that the next time I won't be wrong on something else.

Thats how we all learn from our collective experiences and views

let the blog continue from strength to strength

526. IKE
Posted By: reeldrlaura at 3:42 PM CDT on August 25, 2006.
Nash,.....yes, drool......I am one of the best.....in the WORLD. Be forewarned, however, I WILL make it hurt. then I'll make it all better!


Sounds like a promise!
who volunteers to fly into IOKE at 300 meters and verify the central pressure if it falls below 880mb?
It would appear that the exposed center earlier was the actual storm and now looks like some convection is firing up close to it .
WTNT45 KNHC 252042
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1000
FT ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THIS WIND WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A 40
KT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AT THAT
TIME...AND THE 48 KT WINDS WERE NOT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE
NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA.
SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS
BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN
CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.3N 67.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W 55 KT...OVER JAMAICA
72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W 65 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
yeah FLcrackerGirl..he might as well just stick around in Biloxi..then there would be no second guessing on the blog as to where Ernesto would go
Ahhh Franck.....no worries. I like men PERIOD. W/hair, w/out hair.....doesn't matter. I love men.
532. IKE
Posted By: reeldrlaura at 3:46 PM CDT on August 25, 2006.
Ric....c'mon, I can rip those knots right outta those muscles for ya.


U go girl.
"...there is a chance that Ernesto could be much stronger than currently forecast over the Gulf of Mexico."
NHC Discussion

Yikes!!!!!
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1000
FT ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THIS WIND WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A 40
KT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AT THAT
TIME...AND THE 48 KT WINDS WERE NOT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE
NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA.
SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS
BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN
CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.3N 67.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W 55 KT...OVER JAMAICA
72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W 65 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W 75 KT
..sees the negative tilt NW to se..this appears to be temporary as the Low -level gradient tightens,,it should start to stacked vertically..as the lastest AVN color infrared is showing...this should happen toward the end of this next round of Convection..as it Lifts and rotates with the Clyclonic flow around to the N side and sw too
no call so far shawn
ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
541. IKE
That discussion is rather scary.

The islands are first...then it's the GOM.

Everyone along the gulf coast needs to keep 2 eyes on Ernie.
542. ryanh
because i work on powerlines, whereever in the gulf if it hits I have to leave my family. So if it hits I gotta be there.
laura....hurt my back yesterday.....felt life a knife was inserted and twisted.....went to an accupuncturist friend.....stuck 10 needles in me...was told i would probably feel better this morning..then....had a massage....felt like a million bucks this morning....not sure i buy the holistic thing..but..it worked on me....so dear..you want to put your hands on my old man muscles..they're all yours
544. IKE
Posted By: HurricaneTracker01 at 3:50 PM CDT on August 25, 2006.
ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.


Deja vu all over again.
Guys, with the COC shuckin' and jivin' all over the place, this has to be driving the models ape-caca. Which in turn drives us ape-caca as well. Who the hell knows where it is gonna end up, but I do believe the GFDL may have the goods on this one. Hell, the GFDL may be too far south actually.
OH man that doesnt sound good by the NHC.
Music....lost my husband 10 years ago......really missing having a partner these days, but ya know....life goes on, and most days I'm pretty optomistic, and y'all just make me smile so much!!!!!
From Flaweather.com

08/25/2006 16:51:42 Eastern Standard Time
Tropical depression has strengthened enough to be names Ernesto at this time. Currently, there is about 20kt of shear affecting the storm, causing the low level center to become exposed for a short time. As of now, convection is attempting to cover the Center, and if this continues, then strengthening will be forecast. The main question for intensity is how quickly Ernesto moves towards Jamaica. The Upper Low over the Caribbean will be causing high shear right over Jamaica in 48 hours. However, areas to the East of Jamaica will have very low shear. If Ernesto is to the East of 75W by Saturday night, quicker intensification can occur. This would also have to mean the Upper low is progressing West as planned. The other scenario is that Ernesto does not slow down its forward movement and runds into increasing shear in 48 hours, which would most likely destroy the circulation.
Which comes to the movement. This will all depend on the Upper Low movement and intensity of Ernesto. A stronger storm, coupled with a retreating Upper Low will allow for a WNW track, followed by a NW track into a weakness in the atlantic ridge which is being forecast by most of the models at this point. The other option, if Ernesto is weak and sheared, would be a WNW movement into the Yucatan. All of these factors will come together inside the next 36 hours. Jamaica should be on full alert in case the forward movement of Ernesto slows. If that occurs they could be in hurricane conditions within 72 hours. In my honest opinion, it is too early to tell what the Upper low and the forward movement of Ernesto will do, which makes for a lower confidence forecast.

For experimental purposes only
Thats why I like the divergence/convergence maps they give you a better perspective on what's really going on in the atmosphere rather than what should be. Once again, I'm not forcasting, just explaining what I see. I'm not an expert and may still be wrong. But the way I see it the convection is STILL behind the coc.
TWC and Don Noe says it could be sheared to death like Chris
KSHurricane, I do not see Ernesto crossing 92 longitude. TX, unfortunately, will likley experience subsidence as Ernesto enters the Gulf, then tracks WNW, then NW, then NNW, then N, and perhaps NNE making landfall between New Iberia, LA and Panama City, FL.

TX needs the rain bad and a few friends have their fingers crossed. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it appears the drought will continue. A weak cold front is expected to traverse TX early next week with high pressure building behind it. A weakness is progged to develop in the high that is currently steering it WNW allowing for the Northward curve. Climatology speaking, TX does not experience hurricanes this late in the season thanks to the infamous "Heat High". While TX, nor anyone else, is out of the woods... I would say they certainly aren't in any 'danger' at this point.
Ike, I'm keeping SIX eyes on this bugger!

Now, as soon as I find the other four eyes, I'll be in good shape. :-)
you think thats bad look at this
this was in the 5pm update as well for TS



NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
Ric ....make sure you ICE your injury a couple of times a day too. Accupuncture WORKS! I studied massage and herbal medicine in China and Japan.....good stuff.
Gulf It is just as likely to duck is sorry chicken ???

you smokin the same stuff as Miami was earlier
WPBHurricane05,

Lets all hope for a repeat of Chris
Why in Hades are gas prices rising today when Ernesto isn't even in the Gulf yet? Arg!
all the models will now have to adjust Northward as well based on movement and initial position, to the 00Z runds will be another interesting thing to watch for. Ill be back on in 3 hours, going otu for some grub....
Wow 27,
I just wanted to let you know that I love Ladies...LOL w/hair or w/out does not matter to me either....I just wish I was like Jim. My problem is I am Tall and Blonde with hair...


Taco:0)
..24.5n by 88.0w..in 120hrs..about 300 Nm S of Biloxi in 120hrs in that cutoff Hot eddy of SSts
its just like the idea i posted earlier...... it is more likely convection will build again around the current LLC, than have another LLC form

the LLC is 1004mb...... the pressure gradient to the east, and they winds, make it all but impossible for another LLC to form....

and thats my story! LOL
LOL @ reeldr. knowing you got them dropping at your feet. you do realize you have some our best predict-casters tied up thinking about you. i have a plan to bring cantore out to the middle of the GOM in a raft with enough food to last to the end of the season. no more storm landfalls. they'll swirl in the gulf around him. now back to the weather.
566. IKE
Posted By: wxwatcher at 3:53 PM CDT on August 25, 2006.
KSHurricane, I do not see Ernesto crossing 92 longitude. TX, unfortunately, will likley experience subsidence as Ernesto enters the Gulf, then tracks WNW, then NW, then NNW, then N, and perhaps NNE making landfall between New Iberia, LA and Panama City, FL.

TX needs the rain bad and a few friends have their fingers crossed. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it appears the drought will continue. A weak cold front is expected to traverse TX early next week with high pressure building behind it. A weakness is progged to develop in the high that is currently steering it WNW allowing for the Northward curve. Climatology speaking, TX does not experience hurricanes this late in the season thanks to the infamous "Heat High". While TX, nor anyone else, is out of the woods... I would say they certainly aren't in any 'danger' at this point.


I don't think it's going to hit Texas either and I'll stand by that...from LA eastward is where it hits.

Of course it could get ripped apart..but I don't think so. Apparently the NHC doesn't think that's likely either.
000
WTPA22 PHFO 252053
TCMCP2

HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 175.4W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 921 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 35SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 80SE 75SW 120NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 115SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 140SE 120SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
Hey ReelDrLaura,

Sorry to hear about your husband. I'm glad you found the blog and have made good friends here. You have been a lot of fun with a great sense of humor and have left me laughing while lurking.

God Bless.
So I guess everyone was correct on the exposed swirl being the center. Unfortunately, deeper convection has just about caught up to the swirl in the last few IR frames and will probably be over the top of it in the next few hours. Time will tell.
so long gulf
your discussions are never dull !
we will certainly watch it
...LOL w/hair or w/out ...lmao...taco..you go get em....
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO


this was in with the TS 5 pm update as well
573. HCW
That's one scary disco it sounds like the NHC is really worried about someone on the gulfcoast taking one for the team

Hardcoreweather.com

Link
...raises his hand. "Ahhhh, DrLaura...my muscles hurt "reel" bad too."
Ernesto pulled some stuff last night. About 2:00AM started this explosive convection, green/purple off the charts convection. About that time Progressivepulse named it a TS.
If the storm behaves similarly tonight, look out.
"Music....lost my husband 10 years ago......really missing having a partner these days, but ya know....life goes on, and most days I'm pretty optomistic, and y'all just make me smile so much!!!!!"

Laura, so sorry to hear of your loss, but i really like your spunk, and your positive attitude......

glad we can provide a little solace, and alot of entertainment! LOL
..Wishes he could send the reeldr..a Big Hug from the Big Ez...to make her feel she still here..in Spirit..
well..i'm off to spend some time with the admiral before she heads out with the ladies....then figure out what i can rummage for dinner....was gonna take the boat out and waste some gas but it looks like it might storm...i'll be back later...enjoy all....
Hey guys. I have a GREAT IDEA!!!!!

I think we should all have the opportunity to meet one another and have good food and drink flowing. We all know each other on here by "binary" means as it were, but why the hell shouldn't we all get to know one another personally. I think many great friendships can be made.

I was thinking of a cruise.... say to the Carribbean. Like a 5 or 6 day cruise where we can relax, party, make new friends and laugh our rear ends off at some of the silly things we have said on here.

Of course, the cruise would need to be in like DECEMBER so we don't become a statistic in a hurricane. How grossly ironic would that be???

Seriously though, maybe I am crazy, but it sounds like a blast to me. Thoughts??
You're a trip Taco....God, I love tacos. When I make tacos I make my own shells...none of those Old ElPaso shells.

I know why you're called taco, but I won't say it.
have a great weekend gulf!!!

kman-I was pretty sure we were on the right path of logic on this afternoon's action. Kudos to you, man.
Peachy, just peachy.

I can do without peachier, mind you.
its time again to look at the loop eddies/currents in the Gulf...MichaelSTL, do you still have recent pics of this in your blog?
Flwatergal....thanks! I'm just starting to be really moving on. Amazing how long it takes, but humor IS the best medicine.....and this blog is a wonderful place to find humor! Ha! Yes, and great friends who also love weather and fishing.....the best of everything!
..will anyway..SQUUEEEZZZeeeee...Laginappe!
WX, Texas is a big state, dont think the folks in Sw costal Texas would agree about rain
hey silverstripes

yes it does seem to have caught up to it but the shear may fight back. I suspect we will continue to see a see saw battle between the storm and shear until one or the other wins. If the shear does lift out as some models maintain then watch out.
The NW Caribbean historically has been high octane for storms and many of the strongest and most destructive have mushroomed in our neck of the woods
THANKS Pat, Thel, Nash, SWLA, Ric, flgal.....all a y'all. You have NO idea how y'all make me feel so welcome. Pat....you really know where my heart is, thank you for that!!!
fldude, no kidding!
I just don't know if I can take another season. I guess I don't have a choice. LOL.
It's like watching a train come at you really slowly and being unable to move out of the way for a week!
*sigh* I love these storms and hate them all at once.
reeldoc- you got mail.
27,
Very well known here if you know what I mean...
Yeah Jeff, I should have been more clear. I doubt El Paso and Houston area want rain. But there is a large part of South, South Central, Central, and North TX that are experiencing extreme drought conditions and would welcome illegal immigrant Ernesto with open arms...
Hey, can lighting come through a window? It's like the Ten Commandments down here in So. Fla.
.....feelin the LOVE Pat.....feelin it for reel, baby, Thanks...XXX
..anytime...for the Good dr...but keep a floor handy if I gota evac ..Im outta here if Ernie comes for pie...
SWLA....got you on the roster! :)
Dr. Laura: Sorry about your losing your husband but just wondering how I could lose mine!
Can someone give me a link to the latest QUICKSCAT?
Ten Commandments!! LOL big time!!!!

I can just picture Charleton Heston on your front lawn!!!
nash, saw your post about meeting each other. A lot of us who were on last year and stayed the winter have already had lots of "WUBA meetings" Heck we have a logo and have shirts, hats, etc with that logo!!! all the meetings have all been great. Many who have lived in a close by area get together often. Some of the folks on here are some of the nices people you will ever meet.
Many of us over the winter have exchanged outside email and phone numbers, etc.
Hope some of you do the same. It is a great idea.
.we out to Head for Middendorfs ..in Manchac..fer da catfish..later..all
Patrap, I don't blame you. I wouldn't go for two in a row either.
ike it will not hit anywhere in the gulf because it wont get in the gulf...it will hit the south fla coast on wednesday and go up the east coast thurs and friday....it could be a cat 1 to cat 3 so all you people be alert please.....StormTop
Sounds good to me Nash, actually The wife and I were just discussing our cruise to the bahamas 1st week of October. Will take laptop and give wave height and wind speeds of course. Doc Laura and especially Gulf kill me, I am always lmao.
well I am outta here for now. will check back later
Posted By: quante at 9:07 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
Hey, can lighting come through a window? It's like the Ten Commandments down here in So. Fla.

Defininately: stay away from windows, water (sinks, bathtubs,etc) phones, computers plug into phone or cable lines, etc.
fldude99...gas prices rose today, so that they can double when Ernesto actually enters the Gulf.
..u betcha tannim..take care...
.....says Patrap can bring hisself and his loved ones over ANY time!!! Door is OPEN darlin.
ST - love your thinking - here's hoping you are right.
Yes Taco, I know exactly what you mean.....

Well, I have to go make dinner, so I will be back here later to see how Ernie is.

Bye everyone!
I think there needs to be a I "heart" WUBAs sticker
Stormtop: Are you seeing the High shifting far enough to the East to allow Ernesto to slide along the left side and be that far to the east??

Just want to know your opinion. Personally, I feel the GFDL is the best solution thus far and actually may be too far south.
Laura,
On a serious note, there is a lot of LOVE in this room or blog but we are all here for the weather and friendship...

If there is anything we could do for you just lets us know... I mean any of us...

Taco:0)
the workers are banging their hammers outside as I type this repairing what Katrina did, and now they may be coming back in a couple weeks! :(
"Dr, Dr, Gimme the news..."

Drlaura, I noticed...thx! I feel like I've arrived now ;)
620. SEFL
Posted By: STORMTOP at 9:10 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
ike it will not hit anywhere in the gulf because it wont get in the gulf...it will hit the south fla coast on wednesday and go up the east coast thurs and friday....it could be a cat 1 to cat 3 so all you people be alert please.....StormTop


Blown up there by the trade winds????
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO


new all see this in the 5pm update from are new TS
Does anyone else think this is insane???

Link
Patrap- which building... the old or new middendorfs building. i perfered the old builing. oops are both still there?
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

should have been a tropical storm at 2 pm advisory :O
Based on the forecast track we're out of the woods here in Tampa. I should have known as much as Tampa NEVER gets hurricanes.
ST....with the new shift to the ene of the center the new model runs tonight might be closer to South FL. I am not taking it lightly here...
I sent this out to the employees I am responsible for this afternoon around 1:00 PM: Tell your people, in the Gulf, to take advantage of this weekend to stock up if they need to..............


I am letting you know, pursuant to my "unofficial" status as the CWLS weatherman, that there is a concern that a rather large tropical depression, soon to the tropical storm Ernesto, is south of Puerto Rico at this time and forecast to enter the Gulf as a Hurricane late next week (see link).

Given the fact that crunch time, if storm threatens the Big Bend area (there are to many variables in play to determine possible landfall at this time but I feel that this may end up being a major hurricane strike somewhere in the Gulf region), that any warnings, etc, would begin to go up towards the end of next week (while we may still be working), I would urge all of you to think about buying any needed hurricane supples (water/food/wood, etc,) this weekend as if the Big Bend/Panhandle is threatened, stores may get very hectic at the end of the week/next weekend, and supplies short, if you wait it out until the last minute.

Please know (my legal disclaimer) that this is not meant to worry anyone at this point, but, as Hurricane season is just really starting up, well all need to have some supplies in stock anyway for the next one if this storm does not materialize as a Big Bend event.
hey Nash

I like your idea about all the bloggers getting together. What should we call ourselves ??
maybe $5 to the person who comes up with the most original name
LMAO
Think about it guys. With a little planinng and time, we can pull that together.

631. IKE
Posted By: STORMTOP at 4:10 PM CDT on August 25, 2006.
ike it will not hit anywhere in the gulf because it wont get in the gulf...it will hit the south fla coast on wednesday and go up the east coast thurs and friday....it could be a cat 1 to cat 3 so all you people be alert please.....StormTop


I disagree....I think it's headed toward Jamaica, Caymans...the western part of Cuba and then somewhere along the gulf states...east of Texas.
If for nothing else, I'd like to do shots with Gulf:-)
thats exactly what im thinking nash.......StormTop
i like the new ST..much nicer, and none of this written is stone crap
Coffee, dont say that. Thats what we said about SWFL until Charlie
Is lightning attracted to a window..no. Silica is not a conductor of electricity. But a couple million volts of high amperage electricity looks pretty hard elsewhere for a conductor.
I don't want it at all...period...exclamation point...double period...double exclamation point..but the least of two evils from my selfish point of view would be east coast. It wouldn't be fueled by the warm gulf and might be as destructive as it potentially can in the gulf.
has to be after Nov 30th though
after all who would be left on land to watch out for these storms !!
Internet at sea is VERY expensive
reeldrlaura- sent you an email. hope ya got it.
OK IM OUT OF HERE< LIGHTNING LIKE CRAZY
Taco....everyone......Thanks! I will ask for the things I need. So far y'all are just so gracious, I don't worry about me......I AM, however worried about Ernesto.....no matter what ST says. The multiple vortexes make it SO hard to predict anything.....surely hope it settles down a bit....even if it stays organized....it's those MV's that freak me out!
Hey, I got a name already guys....

"The Wishcasters"

Can you imagine hearing "Would the members of the Wishcaster party please report to the captain to give a BIG WU forecast for the next 5 days."

Classic!!!
Alright everyone, I'm gonna go enjoy some of my Friday night.

ttyl,
Justin
Nash, when do you start FSU? We will be up for the Wake Forest game.
Hey all...new here. Thanks for all of the knowledge....but wxwatcher....Carla hit Texas in early September......:-)
Good Afternoon All .... Well, I'm a newby to the blog and I'll tell you ... I think ya'll are doing a great job keeping people up to date. I just saw they updated TD5 to Ernesto .... what is the general thoughts on when (if) it hits the Gulf of Mexico. I live in the Panhandle of Florida. Any thoughts?
shots with gulf
hmmmmm

need to unwind him a bit first lol
definitely gone now
GS - When WILMA came through from West to East across S FL, the eye went over West Palm Beach, there was a lot of damage south of the storm and most of it was caused by tornados. I have a report from someone on South Beach that did not evac as they should have from the 15th floor, that a roof from a lower building had actually came flying straight up and the tractor trailers across the street were blown over. The south side of WILMA was just nasty. The last report I had gotten from the TV before the power went off was that several tornados would develop along the county line between Miami and Broward. I guess you would call this a multiple vortex situation.
Posted By: kmanislander at 9:10 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
hey Nash

I like your idea about all the bloggers getting together. What should we call ourselves ??
maybe $5 to the person who comes up with the most original name
LMAO
Report As: Obscene | Spam | Copyright
Posted By: nash28 at 9:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
Think about it guys. With a little planinng and time, we can pull that together.


GOOD idea! How about the Weather-or NOT's? :)
Hey Weatherwannabe. That's interesting becaause my employer has had me rewrite the Team Member Hurricane Handbook and wants me to put out official emails if a storm is threatening Tampa Bay.
651. PBG00
I don't see how it could hit sfla..That is such a huge shift..what could cause that and why is NO ONE else on to it../9Just want to know if it is a real possibility,(Here its like a sigh of relief this thing isn't going to be our problem)
Music....I got it.....you got mail too!
Posted By: Corpusman at 9:09 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
Hey all...new here. Thanks for all of the knowledge....but wxwatcher....Carla hit Texas in early September......:-)


Welcome Corpusman!!! Also another hurricane that hit Texas in September is the 1900hurricane.
I would go to a WUBA meeting in a heartbeat. Just look for me in the nonforecaster/lurker corner.
New blog is up.^
rainbands moving nw rapidly affecting Puerto Rico with showers and gusty winds.
Cosmic, come on. ST comes on here and gives opinion without absolutes and you want to start something?
AH! the shooters are done jellin
I'm puttin em in the car and drivin like a felon
to the nearest........
I'm not tellin!

Catch you all later.......Thanks.....for EVERYTHING y'all. Now keep yer heads down, there's debris out there!!!
stormtop-what makes you think it will go up the east side of FL? just a hunch?
Watch what you say Coffeecrusader. We are nowhere near out of this by any stretch of the imagination.

If the High currently parked in the NE Gulf slides to the east and weakens at a quicker rate, coupled by a very probable slow down from Ernesto, this will cause the storm to follow the weakness which could very well put W. Central FL in the bullseye. I am not trying to scare you, but I am trying to get the complacency out of you. This is a VERY REAL possibility.

Just look at Charley from '04. Damn near same position as of now and was heading WNW as well.
Thats cool Nash...I just know that I wanted them to get personally prepared for this over the weekend because as State employees, we usually don't get "off" until the last minute (usually about one day before a landfall) and if the forecast track/time is correct, a lot of working people are going to be scrambling from work at the last minute next week
Right on Nash, I rode out Charlie because it was to hit Tampa
yes cosmis just like last year impossible it was such a huge swing what 600 miles well guess what i was right and this is going to be the same thing a huge shift to the nnw over s fla and up the east coast.....StormTop
can the low in the western gulf affect it when it crosses into the gulf?
1900Hurricane,

That is sure insane to me. Its almost a massive Cat 5. And the pressure is supposed to drop another 30-35 MB?????

Supposed to be 880 MB at the end of the forcast period for that run?

Amazing
New Blog Up
I found out about WU because local paper said Steve Gregory from WU had predicted SWFLA landfall
Noles- I start FSU in the spring of next year.
why do people think hurricanes dont hit texas this late... Fronts will not begin to push through for a few more weeks... look at the climatology
What is the salary for the the director of the National Hurricane Center anyway?