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Matthew’s Shrieking Winds Hit Bahamas

By: Bob Henson 4:10 AM GMT on October 06, 2016

Wednesday night was a very stormy night across the heart of The Bahamas as Hurricane Matthew churned through the center of the archipelago. The worst impacts on Wednesday night were likely being felt on Long Island, Great Exuma Island, and nearby smaller islands extending to the northwest, as Matthew moved parallel to these islands and just to the west of them. At 11 pm EDT Wednesday, winds at a personal weather station (PWS) on Staniel Cay, Exumas, located about 50 miles north-northwest of Matthew’s center, were 60 mph, gusting to 67 mph. Winds in Nassau were 17 mph, gusting to 29 mph. Two weather stations on Great Exuma Island reported much higher winds, but these stations have gone offline and so the readings may not be trustworthy: Exuma International Airport (southeast at 119 mph, gusts to 144 mph) and Moss Town (south-southeast at 107 mph, gusts to 131 mph).


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared satellite image of Hurricane Matthew as of 11:15 pm EDT Wednesday, October 6, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Intensity update: Headed back to Category 4?
Officially, Matthew’s top sustained winds were at 115 mph as of the 11 pm EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. This makes Matthew a low-end Category 3 storm. Matthew’s efforts to reorganize and reintensify on Wednesday afternoon and evening were been a mixed bag. Hurricane Hunters found Matthew’s eyewall partially open at times, and the top surface winds had yet to rebound significantly. On the other hand, the convective core of showers and thunderstorms surrounding Matthew’s center has intensified and expanded, and Matthew’s central pressure began dropping late Wednesday night, a sign that the enhanced convection may be helping Matthew to regain intensity. An 11:03 pm Wednesday fix from the Air Force hurricane hunters found that Matthew had finally closed off its eyewall, and the central pressure had dropped to 959 mb. In its 11 pm EDT discussion, NHC noted that Matthew’s eye--once again distinct on satellite imagery--has contracted to about 17 miles wide, another sign of strengthening. It may take until midday Thursday for any substantial drop in Matthew’s pressure to result in a stronger wind field. NHC predicts that Matthew will again hit Category 4 intensity by Thursday evening. The 00Z Thursday SHIPS model forecast gave an 11% chance that Matthew would intensify enough to become a Category 5 storm again by Thursday night.


Figure 2. NHC forecast for Matthew as of 11 PM EDT Wednesday, October 6, 2016.

Track update: Still heading for Florida coast
Matthew continues heading on a northwest track that will take it just west of New Providence Island, putting Nassau in the most intense part of the storm’s dangerous right-hand side. However, Matthew may head just far enough west to avoid the worst-case impacts for Nassau, most likely tracking over parts of Andros Island. Unlike the mountainous parts of eastern Cuba and western Haiti that took a toll on Matthew as it crossed them, Andros is a very flat island, so it should have little or no effect on the storm.

Should Matthew continue on its due-northwest track, it would come uncomfortably close to making landfall along the urban corridor from Miami to Palm Beach. Our most reliable track models insist that Matthew will begin angling just to the right before landfall, which would keep the southern part of this corridor on Matthew’s weaker side. Broward County (including Fort Lauderdale) is in a hurricane warning, while Miami-Dade County is in a tropical storm warning. The risk of dangerous impacts, including hurricane-force winds, ramps up greatly from Palm Beach northward. The most recent NHC forecast (see Figure 2 above) keeps Matthew as a Category 4 hurricane as it reaches the Melbourne area on Friday morning and a strong Category 3 by Friday evening just east of Jacksonville. The 00Z Thursday run of the GFS model agrees very closely with the official NHC track. Hurricane Warnings are now in effect from Broward County to Fernandina Beach, Florida, with a Hurricane Watch extending northward to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

If NHC’s forecast were to prove spot-on, conditions along Florida’s central and northern Atlantic coast could easily top anything observed in many decades. As we noted this afternoon, the Melbourne area--including Kennedy Space Center--has never recorded a major hurricane. Hurricane Dora struck near St. Augustine, FL, as a Category 3 in 1965, but otherwise the Jacksonville area and its 1.5 million residents have never experienced a hurricane of this magnitude. A northward-moving “coast scraper” hurricane has the potential to cause widespread damage over an enormous swath of populated area. In general, the storm surge threat with such a storm would be less than for a perpendicular landfall, but as the Atlantic coast begins curving toward Georgia, the risk of dangerous storm surge will rise markedly, with inundations of up to 8 feet possible from Sebastian Inlet, FL, to the Georgia/South Carolina border.

The bottom line: Matthew continues to pose a potentially dire threat to much of Florida’s Atlantic coast, with major impacts likely along the Georgia coast and potentially further north.

See our previous update for more background on the various threats posed by Matthew. As always, NHC is the place to turn for official warnings, watches, and local statements.

Jeff Masters will be back with our next update on Thursday morning.

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1494. thetwilightzone:

mat is at lest a strong cat 4 storm right now and may be vary closed too cat 5 if not all ready


It's probably around 130 MPH if I had to guess,
Quoting 1496. kmanislander:



Wow. Another mb before I could finish my post. Question is how low will it go. History making event possibly unfolding



agreed i been calling for this too bomb in too a strong cat 4 or 5 storm for a few days now in fact i been calling for this since i was in the Caribbean Sea i been right on with my forecast
1503. ProPoly
Quoting 1479. jordan1tylerr:

Well he lives 6 miles inland and I'm telling him to maybe evac so I just wanted to ask for blog's input on Boca's risk.



If the eyewall goes over it, Boca will look like it was run over with a lawnmower.
Best of luck to all of those in the path of the storm from Long Island, NY here.

Mike
Wow, down to 937 already. Just for comparison, Hazel was a 938 at landfall, Rita a 937, and a 930-and-under would get Matthew into the top 10 most intense US landfalling hurricanes. Katrina (920) is the only 21st century storm in the top 10, at #3.

Link (Wikipedia)
1506. Patrap
I can vouch for taz he's been predicting this situation for days. No good.
1508. ProPoly
Quoting 1479. jordan1tylerr:

Well he lives 6 miles inland and I'm telling him to maybe evac so I just wanted to ask for blog's input on Boca's risk.



If the eyewall goes over it, Boca will look like it was run over with a lawnmower.
Quoting 1502. thetwilightzone:



agreed i been calling for this too bomb in too a strong cat 4 or 5 storm for a few days now in fact i been calling for this since i was in the Caribbean Sea i been right on with my forecast


I don't think it's becoming a 5 again.
Quoting 1428. NEFLWATCHING:

No, it really is not. I am going to take extra measures - ability to cut my way out, life vests inside, ropes, and the jon boat will be tied to my house if necessary. Where I am the surge will be from 3-6 feet.


Do you think you'll be able to navigate the jon boat in 140 mph winds? Do you think it will still be attached, or afloat, once it gets to that point? When the storm surge is 5 feet, with 20 foot waves on top of that, it will be pretty hard to swing an ax in the attic while you're up to your chest in water.

Get. Out. Now. You don't have to die that way. But you will if you stay.
Quoting 1491. flbeachgirl:

Sat in an unusually long line at the gas station in downtown Sarasota this morning, so it's obvious we've got folks here from the east and our own folks stocking up in the event there are shortages. I'm not personally going over to do damage assessment (I'm trained - I just can't get away right now), but I know people who are and they are not looking forward to what they will likely find. Watching this is making me nauseous thinking about the potential loss of life and the aftermath.


I gassed up last night (cheapest gas btw is on 41 at Racetrac and Wawa and near the interstate in bradenton/sarasota area) and have water and batteries stored up just in case. We will probably have people staying in this area for a while as if this track verifies the damage will be unthinkable on the east coast.
Quoting 1486. RitaEvac:

These waters east of Florida haven't seen these kind of pressures and wind since Andrew of 92'


I was just thinking that there will be damage like the core of Andrew... basically a war zone without the burning.
Quoting 1509. FunnelVortex:



I don't think it's becoming a 5 again.



for the ones that wont think this will be come a cat 5 you are going too be wrong
What is the best case/worst case for the anticipated hurricane force wind field size when it is off the coast of east central Florida?
1515. WxLogic
Quoting 1439. AlphaBetaGamma01:

More models predicting Matthew to loop round.




I still believe the models are speeding Matthew a bit too much. I would expect that sometime at or a bit after Matthew reaches the Cape Canaveral area to start slowing down a bit more than expected as it starts to lose some steering due to a COL regions between the Cape and Jacksonville before it starts looping as it misses the TROF and the High builds to the NW/N of it.

So far Matthew hasn't been one that likes to "speed" but take its time.
1516. hmroe
Quoting 1479. jordan1tylerr:

Well he lives 6 miles inland and I'm telling him to maybe evac so I just wanted to ask for blog's input on Boca's risk.



6 miles inland isn't safe
Corrections are for the Birds.   We have been absent of any storms here in the Gulf Coast for basically 11 years.  No damage, no deaths...etc since Katrina.  Averages are averages for a reason.   i despise averages................................


GO AWAY MATTHEW......


Meanwhile here in NW Georgia we are in a severe drought, almost 20-30 inches below normal rain and can't buy a drop of moisture.  Grass is burnt and they are talking about rationing...........    AVERAGES........   BOO!!!
We nend a special advisory NOW.
We are starting to get rain and wind, and we are getting the hell out of here
1520. Patrap
Quoting 1317. SouthMSamateur:

Seems like throughout it's life wind speed has been on the high side compared to pressure. With pressure coming down now, that energy seems to be expanding the hurricane's size instead of translating to higher wind speed. Wouldn't that make storm surge impacts worse?


I just wanted to note that expanding wind field and increasing winds speeds are not an either/or proposition with a deepening core. Movement of air from higher to lower pressure is the primary cause of wind on a synoptic scale. When pressure drops in the hurricane's core, air further out is drawn in towards the core, and the wind field will expand the deeper the core pressure drops. As the air moves towards the core, it speeds up due to angular momentum. This movement creates a tighter wind gradient around the core, which is evident by the higher wind speeds. It's a coupled process; one doesn't occur without the other following suit. There may be, however, a lag between the wind expansion and the resulting increase in wind speeds. Atmospheric changes, land and the hurricane's structure may all also influence the wind gradient strength at the core.

As for storm surge, The strength of the storm, the wind field size and the forward speed all must be taken into account.
Latest images; very sombering:



Quoting 1471. kmanislander:

Good morning

938 Mbs. Matthew has become an extremely dangerous hurricane that is still deepening. 20 Mbs down from last night.
Currently threading the needle between Andros and New Providence which leaves NP in the NE eyewall. Any reports from there ?


I pray most have left New Providence. That tiny island looks sooooo vulnerable right next to Matthew's eye and on the East side 😟

I tried to find a beach cam but it's down - not surprised
1524. Smitter
Quoting 1488. thetwilightzone:

i say at 11am winds will be 150 too 155 mph
NHC may need to put out a intermediate advisory since Matthew is so close now.
Quoting 1510. islander44:



Do you think you'll be able to navigate the jon boat in 140 mph winds? Do you think it will still be attached, or afloat, once it gets to that point? When the storm surge is 5 feet, with 20 foot waves on top of that, it will be pretty hard to swing an ax in the attic while you're up to your chest in water.

Get. Out. Now. You don't have to die that way. But you will if you stay.

Rabbit in the headlight this naievety reminds me of.
i think this blog will be come vary quite later on too day has many FL bloger move in land you need too do so today like right now please get off the coast not safe there
1527. Patrap
1528. JM2
For those wondering about conditions in the Ft Laud / Boca area I'll be updating my blog here with observations:
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JM2/show.html
1529. Michale
We're in St Augustine, FL... Hasn't seen a major strike since Dora in '64.. We lost everything in the Willamette Floods of '96 so we're staying put....

During Floyd, we lived on the barrier island in St Augustine. We stayed put but evacuated our kids inland. It took them 13 hours to get from St Augustine to Gainesville which is normally a 30-40 min drive....
Quoting 1524. Smitter:

NHC may need to put out a intermediate advisory since Matthew is so close now.


agreed
After making an almost B-Line for Nassau, the radar shows the storm has resumed a more NW motion towards Northern Andros Island. Still looks like the West end of New Providence is going to get the eastern eyewall. Not good for Adelaide.
Anyone know how the Kennedy Space Center will do in this storm?

Good luck everyone!
If anyone is thinking about evacuating but can't find a place to stay, just get in the car and drive over here to the west coast anyway. Even without a hotel, we have plenty of lovely beach pavilions with bathrooms, showers, and concessions. Do NOT let the lack of a hotel room stop you from getting out!
1534. ackee
I hope Matthew does not become a cat 5 and get EWRC and stay off shore that best case
1535. Smitter
Quoting 1527. Patrap:


Eye moving closer the center of storm.
Quoting 1513. thetwilightzone:




for the ones that wont think this will be come a cat 5 you are going too be wrong
I have to agree unfortunately for those in harms way
1537. Wots
Quoting 1522. weathermanwannabe:

Latest images; very sombering:






Looks like Matthew is rebuilding its sidekick blob...

Quoting 1495. weathermanwannabe:

I was happy to see abnormal traffic last night, off of I-10 in Tallahassee on 319 towards Georgia, which means that folks were driving up to stay with relatives or getting motels.  Alternatively, there was very little traffic on I-10 this morning headed West................Looks like (hopefully) that a lot of people who smartly chose to evacuate the East Florida Coast probably headed to the West Coast of Florida or up into the interior of Georgia.


I can't even imagine the terror folks must be feeling. I so wish everyone could get out. Houston's Centerpoint Energy is sending 200 linemen and support crews to Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. They'll be working 16 hour days. We're returning the favor since those states and others helped us get back up and running after Ike. Godpseed to ya'll.
Channel 6 in house model, still predicting a cat 4 passing over Orlando. Landfall in Melbourne.
Quoting 1532. magnitude9:

Anyone know how the Kennedy Space Center will do in this storm?

Good luck everyone!


Bring all their aircraft inside the hangar and such.

Their buildings like the VAB may lose some paneling and some of their rockets on display may be blown over like in Francis, however.
1541. jaybo
There is a steady flow of power company trucks, tree trimming trucks and hurricane restoration service vehicles streaming eastbound across I-10 in Mississippi apparently staging themselves to be ready for the aftermath.
1542. Patrap
Remember in Dune when Duke Leto lands the spice jumper to rescue those spice miners?

Remember what he yelled from the hatch to the men running towards him?

"Run,run for yer very lives man!!!


Bet DAT.

Leave.


THe blog has definitely slowed down which hopefully means all the Florida members are packing up or are driving.
1545. IDTH
Out of class. Some of you who are concerned about people in Florida may want to go to TWC live stream on YouTube and raise awareness on what's going on. I was doing it earlier but alas one person might not be enough.
If Matthew continues on his current path he will be the 12th Category 4 Hurricane to make a U.S. Landfall in the last 100 years. Here’s a list of those who came before him (Landfalls listed only depict where storm was at Category 4 intensity):

1919- Unnamed Hurricane- Florida & Texas Landfalls
1926- Great Miami Hurricane- Florida Landfall
1928- Lake Okeechobee Hurricane- Florida Landfall
1932- Freeport Hurricane- Texas Landfall
1947- Unnamed Hurricane- Florida Landfall
1954- Hurricane Hazel- South & North Carolina Landfalls
1957- Hurricane Audrey- Texas & Louisiana Landfalls
1960- Hurricane Donna- Florida Landfall
1961- Hurricane Carla- Texas Landfall
1989- Hurricane Hugo- South Carolina Landfall
2004- Hurricane Charlie- Florida Landfall

By averages, this list would give the idea that a Category 4 makes a U.S. Landfall once every 8 year (97 years, 11 Storms). However, if you have caught on, there have only been two Category 4 Landfalls in the past 55 years. I’m afraid that we are far overdue…

And if Matthew’s pressure keeps dropping...Well, he may be on this list instead.

Category 5
1935- Labor Day Hurricane- Florida Landfall
1969- Hurricane Camille- Louisiana and Mississippi Landfalls
1992- Hurricane Andrew- Florida Landfall


1547. snowboy
Quoting 1529. Michale:

We're in St Augustine, FL... Hasn't seen a major strike since Dora in '64.. We lost everything in the Willamette Floods of '96 so we're staying put....

During Floyd, we lived on the barrier island in St Augustine. We stayed put but evacuated our kids inland. It took them 13 hours to get from St Augustine to Gainesville which is normally a 30-40 min drive....


Staying put when 150 mph winds are forecast for St. Augustine in 20 hours is beyond stupid - please head west while you still can.
Pray for Nassau, it's just to the right of the COC about to get passed over by the East side of the eye.

Property can be replaced but lives cannot; if you live on the Coast of Florida from Boca to Daytona and were waiting for the last minute to "see" what was up, time is up..................Gather your family and personal papers and like, and get out this morning before they shut down the escape routes due to tropical storm force winds by this afternoon.
1550. Doss2k
I think the best we can hope for going into this evening is Matthew decides to start an eye wall replacement before landfall. Other than that I dont see anything that is going to slow this thing down. I think an actual landfall might be the better case on this track to start to weaken things. Worst case seems if he starts to track right up the coast with the coastline sitting in the eyewall.
Certainties:

1) Matthew is going to run up US property losses in the tens of billions of dollars;

2) In terms of level of damage combined with areal extent, Matthew is likely to be the most widely destructive hurricane the US has ever seen;

3) Whether through pride, complacency, miscommunication, idiocy, lack of resources, accident, or something else, multiple US citizens will die needlessly over the next two days.

Also: the name "Matthew" will be retired.
anyone think this may shift further west?
1553. aquak9
Checking in from NE Fla-

Looks like they're evac'ing most everything east of the intracoastal, and all communities along the St John's River. Coworker's spouse sent pictures of local Walmarts with empty shelves.... but we still had gas last night, locally. Proce had gone up about 10 cents, tho.

For locals and what-nots, my blog is open. I know this blog runs fast. I'm NE Fla, for the newbies, just click on my name.

Not enough PeptoBismal in this world, and I am not joking. Peace, ya'll.
If he is 6 miles in, what type of house/building is he in? CBS contruction? Shutters? If he has both of those he will be ok.

Quoting 1503. ProPoly:



If the eyewall goes over it, Boca will look like it was run over with a lawnmower.
Quoting 1510. islander44:



Do you think you'll be able to navigate the jon boat in 140 mph winds? Do you think it will still be attached, or afloat, once it gets to that point? When the storm surge is 5 feet, with 20 foot waves on top of that, it will be pretty hard to swing an ax in the attic while you're up to your chest in water.

Get. Out. Now. You don't have to die that way. But you will if you stay.

Also the debris in the wind and water creates hazards you will be unable to avoid, downed power lines, trees, parts of houses, animals friendly and not (snakes ect.) and fencing among others.
1556. redux
Quoting 1541. jaybo:

There is a steady flow of power company trucks, tree trimming trucks and hurricane restoration service vehicles streaming eastbound across I-10 in Mississippi apparently staging themselves to be ready for the aftermath.


Asplundh by chance?
1557. ebzz
Quoting 1553. aquak9:

Checking in from NE Fla-

Looks like they're evac'ing most everything east of the intracoastal, and all communities along the St John's River. Coworker's spouse sent pictures of local Walmarts with empty shelves.... but we still had gas last night, locally. Proce had gone up about 10 cents, tho.

For locals and what-nots, my blog is open. I know this blog runs fast. I'm NE Fla, for the newbies, just click on my name.

Not enough PeptoBismal in this world, and I am not joking. Peace, ya'll.



Given the state of emergency, I believe it is illegal for gas stations to price gouge but I don't know the extent of the law.
Nassau and Nicholls Town getting absolutely HAMMERED by that eyewall right now.
1559. snowboy
Quoting 1552. SunnyintheEye:

anyone think this may shift further west?


Nope, I think the NHC track/cone is on the money.
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3m3 minutes ago Notre Dame, IN

We have strong cat 4 at landfall, crossing the gulf stream could see this go sub 920 and cat 5. Tom Downs here at weatherbell same concern
I don't think he's got shutters but he is in a house.
Quoting 1554. bocahurricane:

If he is 6 miles in, what type of house/building is he in? CBS contruction? Shutters? If he has both of those he will be ok.


Quoting 1515. WxLogic:



I still believe the models are speeding Matthew a bit too much. I would expect that sometime at or a bit after Matthew reaches the Cape Canaveral area to start slowing down a bit more than expected as it starts to lose some steering due to a COL regions between the Cape and Jacksonville before it starts looping as it misses the TROF and the High builds to the NW/N of it.

So far Matthew hasn't been one that likes to "speed" but take its time.


That is one tight model concensus through 24 hours. Still keeping a close eye on it, but the fact it's kept east of Andros for so long is surprising to me.
"Employees from the Department of Transportation, Department of Health and South Florida Water Management District say they were told not to use “climate change” and “global warming” in reports or other documents. "

Well, no one wants to hear it, but this storm will be nothing compared to things that will be seen in less than 10 years due to warming of the oceans.

Not south boca right?
Quoting 1549. weathermanwannabe:

Property can be replaced but lives cannot; if you live on the Coast of Florida from Boca to Daytona and were waiting for the last minute to "see" what was up, time is up..................Gather your family and personal papers and like, and get out this morning before they shut down the escape routes due to tropical storm force winds by this afternoon.
1565. Michale
Quoting 1547. snowboy:



Staying put when 150 mph winds are forecast for St. Augustine in 20 hours is beyond stupid - please head west while you still can.


I understand and all things being equal, that is good advice.. But we have an autistic grandchild and another grandchild with epilepsy... There is no where we can evac to that would give the medical care we need..

We weather'ed Floyd a lot closer to the coast, so we should be OK.....

'Appreciate the advice and, under other circumstances, it's the best advice to follow....
1566. Patrap
I spent 9 hours in K's western side.

I walked,tread water,and got to the s shore levee,and the lake was there.

I grinnedd and smiled we dodged a bullet.

I was only one mile west of the 17h street canal breech that morning.

I was never so wrong in my 45 yrs then

Leave

Leave

Leave
Extent of winds:

Wind Radii
The outermost radii represents 34 knot winds The second wind radii represents 50 knot winds The next radii represents 64 knot winds.







Link for larger
1568. Grothar
With the pressure dropping it is not out of the question it could reach CAT 5 today with the pressure dropping as it could.
1569. 996tt
Quoting 1513. thetwilightzone:




for the ones that wont think this will be come a cat 5 you are going too be wrong


Jeez man, you getting a little hysterical on us. Step away from the caffeine. Relax. Its a serious situation, but there are plenty professionals and those in the know communicating objective data and informed expert opinions in constructive manner. Screaming CAT 5, CAT 5 your all gonna die from the roof tops isn't necessary or constructive.
I sure don't want to think I might lose my home.
Quoting 1541. jaybo:

There is a steady flow of power company trucks, tree trimming trucks and hurricane restoration service vehicles streaming eastbound across I-10 in Mississippi apparently staging themselves to be ready for the aftermath.


I can verify that a convoy of at least 50 power company utility trucks just passed my location in Columbus Oh, headed south on I-71
Quoting 1565. Michale:



I understand and all things being equal, that is good advice.. But we have an autistic grandchild and another grandchild with epilepsy... There is no where we can evac to that would give the medical care we need..

We weather'ed Floyd a lot closer to the coast, so we should be OK.....

'Appreciate the advice and, under other circumstances, it's the best advice to follow....

You need to go somewhere!
1573. palmpt
Quoting 1551. Neapolitan:

Certainties:

1) Matthew is going to run up US property losses in the tens of billions of dollars;

2) In terms of level of damage combined with areal extent, Matthew is likely to be the most widely destructive hurricane the US has ever seen;

3) Whether through pride, complacency, miscommunication, idiocy, lack of resources, accident, or something else, multiple US citizens will die needlessly over the next two days.

Also: the name "Matthew" will be retired.


All certainties. The reality is this storm will test areas whose buildings have not been updated to the latest building codes. Outdated shingles are gone leaded to roof devastation and blown rain to enter houses. Roofs not strapped down will come off. Too many who think they are safe, are not safe. If you stay, what's your battle plan? Do you have a backup plan?
1574. Hugo5
Anyone have the latest on the Eye's size. It appears to have shrank again on radar. I get it somewhere along the 12 na mi mark now.
1575. csmda
Quoting 1565. Michale:



I understand and all things being equal, that is good advice.. But we have an autistic grandchild and another grandchild with epilepsy... There is no where we can evac to that would give the medical care we need..

We weather'ed Floyd a lot closer to the coast, so we should be OK.....

'Appreciate the advice and, under other circumstances, it's the best advice to follow....


Genuinely curious, what medical care can you possibly receive during and after a cat 4 hurricane?
Quoting 1570. NEFLWATCHING:

I sure don't want to think I might lose my home.


And we do not want you and yours to lose your life..................................
Matthew's looking scary this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a Cat 5 again over the gulf stream.
Radio from Nassau taking calls right now. "This is as bad as I've ever seen it" host just said
Price Gouging Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is Price Gouging?
Florida Statute 501.160 states that during a state of emergency, it is unlawful to sell, lease, offer to sell, or offer for lease essential commodities, dwelling units, or self-storage facilities for an amount that grossly exceeds the average price for that commodity during the 30 days before the declaration of the state of emergency, unless the seller can justify the price by showing increases in its prices or market trends. Examples of necessary commodities are food, ice, gas, and lumber.

2. How do I know if I’m being price gouged?
The law compares the reported price of the commodity or service during the state of emergency to the average price charged over the 30-day period prior to the declared state of emergency. If there is a “gross disparity” between the prior price and the current charge, it is considered price gouging.

3. What is covered under the Price Gouging Statute?
The Price Gouging Statute covers only essential commodities. A “commodity” means any good, service, material, merchandise, supplies, equipment, resources, or other article of commerce, and includes, without limitation, food, water, ice, chemicals, petroleum products, and lumber necessary for consumption or use as a direct result of the emergency. The law also requires those selling goods and services to possess an occupational license. Examples of non-essential items luxury items are alcoholic beverages and cigarettes.

4. What evidence do I need to help enforce the Price Gouging Statute?
If you suspect price gouging, obtain as much information as possible in the form of estimates, invoices, receipts or bills. When comparing products, note as much information as possible, including the product name, size or quantity, manufacturer, item number and unit price. For lumber products, note the grade, thickness and quality. If it is a service such as storage or towing, note the per-mile (or other distance) charge, removal charges, per-day storage charges and other charges such as security, clean up or other “add-ons.” Report this information to the Attorney General’s Price Gouging Hotline at 1-866-966-7226. You may also report violations online at http://myfloridalegal.com or mail documents to the following address:
Office of the Attorney General
The Capitol, PL-01
Tallahassee, FL 32399-1050
Please remember to include your name, the name of the company or individual, and a complaint number, if you received one.


5. How can I avoid becoming a victim of price gouging?
Plan ahead. Prepare for a disaster before it happens. Always have the following items on hand:
-Five gallons of drinking water per person in your household
-At least two working flashlights
-A portable radio
-A telephone with a cord – If the electrical power is lost, a cordless telephone will not work
-An ample supply of batteries to power these and other items
-A full tank of propane and charcoal if you have a charcoal grill
-Non-perishable food items
-Formula and diapers, if you have young children in the home

After the danger has passed, obtain estimates for clean-up and repairs in writing from licensed contractors. Check with county or city contractor’s licensing board for recommendations and demand proof of proper licensing. Don’t allow anyone to bully you or force you into making a quick decision. Never hesitate to call the local law enforcement if necessary.
The Department of Business and Professional Regulation licenses more than 20 types of professions and can be reached via telephone at 850-487-1395 or via the internet at http://www.myflorida.com/dbpr.
I know a handful of folks who are leaving out of Jax, Tybee and Charleston today. At least evacuating and settling their kids/pets further inland. One guy works with an animal welfare group so he and his team are mobilizing a staging area while his family has moved inland.

Hopefully most coastal dwellers are taking this one seriously and the people who are taking precautions are influencing their neighbors to do the same.

If all goes well everyone will be able to share the story of Mathew - that minor inconvenient disruption to routine - versus any other narrative that could come out of him.
Lifetime resident in indialantic, Florida. Getting ready to pack up & head to work in West Melbourne to ride out the storm. Thank you to everyone on this blog posting up to the minute information. Stay safe!




1583. 996tt
Quoting 1566. Patrap:

I spent 9 hours in iK's western side.

I walked,tread water,and got to the s shore levee,and the lake was there.

I grinnedd and smiled we dodged a bullet.

I was only one mile west of the 17h street canal breech that morning.

I was never so wrong in my 45 yrs then

Leave

Leave

Leave


I think for the most part people are. I got a lot of buddies in the surfer communities in the CB, NSB, SI areas and the most hard core, fearless are taking heed. The problem is there are many without the resources to leave for an extended period of time and options are starting to fill up.

One can only hope this thing stays more offshore and does not take as deep and as long of a path as is apparently anticipated.
That is not true, if you are in a mobile home or a wood frame structure perhaps. Please don't scare people. If everyone from Boca north evacuated that didn't need to the roads would be a disaster.

Quoting 1516. hmroe:



6 miles inland isn't safe
1585. kbaker1
Quoting 1571. ShadowBlasko:



I can verify that a convoy of at least 50 power company utility trucks just passed my location in Columbus Oh, headed south on I-71

I can also verify we have tree and utility company vehicles spotted near Lexington, Kentucky headed down South.
1586. jpsb
Quoting 1555. fireflymom:


Also the debris in the wind and water creates hazards you will be unable to avoid, downed power lines, trees, parts of houses, animals friendly and not (snakes ect.) and fencing among others.


What kind of storm surge can we expect with Matt?
Would it intensify if it comes around into the gulf?
1588. 62901IL
NOBODY should ride out this storm.

Seriously.
Looks like a last minute wobble will save most of New Providence from the worst. Spectrum of damage will be extreme from east to west of the 20-mile long island: east will get Cat. 1 damage, west end high-end Cat. 4.
No those that are warning people this could be a category five hurricane at landfall are just being cautious that everyone in harm's way understands the potential upper end of this hurricane at landfall. If you know more, the better off you are. So in this case, this storm will be stronger than Katrina at landfall, which means more substantial wind damage. Life threatening for sure if caught on the coastline or in the outdoors.


Have we heard fromf Baha this morning ?

Quoting 1588. 62901IL:

NOBODY should ride out this storm.

Seriously.


Completely agree. Pack your stuff, grab the kids and pets and get outta there. This one is FAR too dangerous.
Is Levi going to post a new blog this morning?

Quoting 1569. 996tt:



Jeez man, you getting a little hysterical on us. Step away from the caffeine. Relax. Its a serious situation, but there are plenty professionals and those in the know communicating objective data and informed expert opinions in constructive manner. Screaming CAT 5, CAT 5 your all gonna die from the roof tops isn't necessary or constructive.



some of you down caster need too step away am not the only one that calling for a cat 5


Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 3m3 minutes ago Notre Dame, IN

We have strong cat 4 at landfall, crossing the gulf stream could see this go sub 920 and cat 5. Tom Downs here at weatherbell same concern


pluse some of us blogers on are on the same page with me that this could be come a cat 5


there no need to in slat on this AM live are at risk i been calling this for days now that this will bomb in too a strong cat 4 or 5 storm and am going too be right
Quoting 1554. bocahurricane:

If he is 6 miles in, what type of house/building is he in? CBS contruction? Shutters? If he has both of those he will be ok.



Correct.

Palm Beach County building codes were updated in 1995 then again in 2000. Any modern CBS home with shutters should be able to ride out the storm.

Here in South Florida the surge danger is not as bad due to the deeper water off shore. Obviously anyone who lives on the barrier island or in a cat 4/5 flood area should evacuate.
1597. hmroe
Quoting 1529. Michale:

We're in St Augustine, FL... Hasn't seen a major strike since Dora in '64.. We lost everything in the Willamette Floods of '96 so we're staying put....

During Floyd, we lived on the barrier island in St Augustine. We stayed put but evacuated our kids inland. It took them 13 hours to get from St Augustine to Gainesville which is normally a 30-40 min drive....


Have you considered the consequences you are setting up for the people who have to deal with you in the aftermath? smh
Quoting 1565. Michale:



I understand and all things being equal, that is good advice.. But we have an autistic grandchild and another grandchild with epilepsy... There is no where we can evac to that would give the medical care we need..

We weather'ed Floyd a lot closer to the coast, so we should be OK.....

'Appreciate the advice and, under other circumstances, it's the best advice to follow....


Does your area have a specialized place for people with medical needs? Seems as if Jacksonville would have something. Call your Congressional or state senate office and get some help! Call the news stations for help. Please get those kids to a safer place.
1599. IDTH
There is indeed lightening on the eyewall. Check Dr Greg postels twitter. R.I is unfortunately underway.
Quoting 1566. Patrap:

I spent 9 hours in K's western side.

I walked,tread water,and got to the s shore levee,and the lake was there.

I grinnedd and smiled we dodged a bullet.

I was only one mile west of the 17h street canal breech that morning.

I was never so wrong in my 45 yrs then

Leave

Leave

Leave


Heed the warnings folks....homes can be rebuilt....risking your life over your property is not worth it !
1601. JM2
Quoting 1561. jordan1tylerr:

I don't think he's got shutters but he is in a house.



The eyewall will not come ashore in Boca unless Matt takes a completely unpredicted turn tonight. The forecast track has been perfect for the last 3 days, all the models have been in agreement over his path for quite some time now. Vero thru Daytona is where the concern will be, Matt will be very close to shore by then. Those areas will likely see hurricane force winds and coastal towns might get the eyewall. South of Palm Beach will see hurricane force gusts but not sustained winds. Miami will only see some tropical gusts.

Once again Matt is strong but compact, hurricane forces winds are only 50 miles from the center. The big mess you see on radar is tropical storm winds only. Sure its windy and rainy but there is a huge difference between 40 mph and 120 mph winds.
1602. ncstorm
Guy on TWC explaining the need to leave asap and not chance your life..

While he is explaining the urgency to leave, a couple walks behind him holding hands..

There will be loss of life just from that proof alone..
Question for Neapolitan. Local news says 25-30 mph winds here in Naples, but being that we have a possible strong Cat 4 just to the east of us, shutters to be on the safe side?? What are you expecting?
Quoting 1565. Michale:



I understand and all things being equal, that is good advice.. But we have an autistic grandchild and another grandchild with epilepsy... There is no where we can evac to that would give the medical care we need..

We weather'ed Floyd a lot closer to the coast, so we should be OK.....

'Appreciate the advice and, under other circumstances, it's the best advice to follow....

That is absolutely 150% not true. There are 13 special needs shelters that have been set up for situations such as yours that as of reports this morning were only housing 31 people between the 13 shelters so I am sure there is room for your family at one of them. These shelters are set up to handle even the most serious medical needs so I doubt they wouldn't be able to assist with your situation.

If something should happen to your dwelling, there likely will not be facilities to deal with whatever serious medical you need you believe the shelters cannot provide. If you move to a shelter, they are set up near major hospitals out of the path of the storm so that if you need emergency intensive medical attention you'll be able to get it.

I'm a paramedic and I know from experience that people die when they don't leave because there was a medical event and no one could get to them in time. If you leave, your chances for life saving support are far greater. I can't drive my ambulance in 4 feet of water to get to you.
1605. Michale
Quoting 1575. csmda:



Genuinely curious, what medical care can you possibly receive during and after a cat 4 hurricane?


It's not so much the medical care, but the emotional care for our grandson with autism.. We have the medications necessary for our grandson with epilepsy, but our little one with autism is 2 yrs and the social anxiety of an evacuation would just brutalize the little guy... I realize that being in a cat 4 is not going to be a picnic but at least he will be in familiar surroundings with not a big crowd of strangers around him..
1606. mrjr101
Quoting 1579. Neapolitan:

Price Gouging Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is Price Gouging?
Florida Statute 501.160 states that during a state of emergency, it is unlawful to sell, lease, offer to sell, or offer for lease essential commodities, dwelling units, or self-storage facilities for an amount that grossly exceeds the average price for that commodity during the 30 days before the declaration of the state of emergency, unless the seller can justify the price by showing increases in its prices or market trends. Examples of necessary commodities are food, ice, gas, and lumber.

2. How do I know if I’m being price gouged?
The law compares the reported price of the commodity or service during the state of emergency to the average price charged over the 30-day period prior to the declared state of emergency. If there is a “gross disparity” between the prior price and the current charge, it is considered price gouging.

3. What is covered under the Price Gouging Statute?
The Price Gouging Statute covers only essential commodities. A “commodity” means any good, service, material, merchandise, supplies, equipment, resources, or other article of commerce, and includes, without limitation, food, water, ice, chemicals, petroleum products, and lumber necessary for consumption or use as a direct result of the emergency. The law also requires those selling goods and services to possess an occupational license. Examples of non-essential items luxury items are alcoholic beverages and cigarettes.

4. What evidence do I need to help enforce the Price Gouging Statute?
If you suspect price gouging, obtain as much information as possible in the form of estimates, invoices, receipts or bills. When comparing products, note as much information as possible, including the product name, size or quantity, manufacturer, item number and unit price. For lumber products, note the grade, thickness and quality. If it is a service such as storage or towing, note the per-mile (or other distance) charge, removal charges, per-day storage charges and other charges such as security, clean up or other “add-ons.” Report this information to the Attorney General’s Price Gouging Hotline at 1-866-966-7226. You may also report violations online at http://myfloridalegal.com or mail documents to the following address:
Office of the Attorney General
The Capitol, PL-01
Tallahassee, FL 32399-1050
Please remember to include your name, the name of the company or individual, and a complaint number, if you received one.


5. How can I avoid becoming a victim of price gouging?
Plan ahead. Prepare for a disaster before it happens. Always have the following items on hand:
-Five gallons of drinking water per person in your household
-At least two working flashlights
-A portable radio
-A telephone with a cord – If the electrical power is lost, a cordless telephone will not work
-An ample supply of batteries to power these and other items
-A full tank of propane and charcoal if you have a charcoal grill
-Non-perishable food items
-Formula and diapers, if you have young children in the home

After the danger has passed, obtain estimates for clean-up and repairs in writing from licensed contractors. Check with county or city contractor’s licensing board for recommendations and demand proof of proper licensing. Don’t allow anyone to bully you or force you into making a quick decision. Never hesitate to call the local law enforcement if necessary.
The Department of Business and Professional Regulation licenses more than 20 types of professions and can be reached via telephone at 850-487-1395 or via the internet at http://www.myflorida.com/dbpr.


Except if you're in Miami. All gas stations increased the price of gas at least .10 cents a gallon since yesterday.
Nassau International Airport

06 09:00 E 58 G 85 NA Heavy Rain and Windy
Quoting 1565. Michale:



I understand and all things being equal, that is good advice.. But we have an autistic grandchild and another grandchild with epilepsy... There is no where we can evac to that would give the medical care we need..

We weather'ed Floyd a lot closer to the coast, so we should be OK.....

'Appreciate the advice and, under other circumstances, it's the best advice to follow....


You still should go. Even if you have to walk 10 miles to a shelter it's still better than being on the coast when this hits.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1610. Patrap
307 making another pass


1611. Hugo5
Quoting 1599. IDTH:

There is indeed lightening on the eyewall. Check Dr Greg postels twitter. R.I is unfortunately underway.


They mention anything about the eye wall size? it appears to be shrinking on radar.
1612. 996tt
Quoting 1590. TheDawnAwakening:

No those that are warning people this could be a category five hurricane at landfall are just being cautious that everyone in harm's way understands the potential upper end of this hurricane at landfall. If you know more, the better off you are. So in this case, this storm will be stronger than Katrina at landfall, which means more substantial wind damage. Life threatening for sure if caught on the coastline or in the outdoors.


The Katrina Biloxi damage was in large part caused by all of those damn truck trailers and shipping containers that became projectiles in the storm surge. They leveled my girls friend's residence at the time. We got in right after and wished we hadn't. Anyway, the wind did not cause the total utter surface cleaning that you see in a lot of the pictures.
I can't believe how low Matthew's pressure is when looking at it's satellite appearance. It looks terrible for a sub 940 hurricane. CDO is really asymmetric, eye is ragged and cloud filled, cloud tops aren't extremely cold. How often do you see intensifying cat 4/5 hurricanes with ragged cloud filled eyes? Virtually never.
Hurricane Hunters inbound to make another pass inside the eye of Matthew. Pressure should be around 935/936mb by then and winds might be around 145mph.
Quoting 1594. rosemail:

Is Levi going to post a new blog this morning?




Maybe you should ask him.
Quoting 1606. mrjr101:



Except if you're in Miami. All gas stations increased the price of gas at least .10 cents a gallon since yesterday.


Oil went over $50 a barrel yesterday. The price of gas went up at least a dime everywhere in the country.
The eye wall is currently scraping the west side of Andros Island; looks like Nassau and parts close buy is next.
Need HELP and hopefully you can direct me to a map?

Friend driving south right now from New Jersey to Orlando for a wedding on Sunday.
I guess she will have to stay away from I95 the further south she gets.
Are there maps of evacuation zones, and closed highways?
1619. aquak9
thankyou to all the folks out there who live in states that are already staging to send help

in '04 and '05, every time I saw a line of power trucks, I smiled and waved...then started bawling

I still get a little teary-eyed at a line of bucket trucks

I thought that was all behind me
Quoting 1605. Michale:



It's not so much the medical care, but the emotional care for our grandson with autism.. We have the medications necessary for our grandson with epilepsy, but our little one with autism is 2 yrs and the social anxiety of an evacuation would just brutalize the little guy... I realize that being in a cat 4 is not going to be a picnic but at least he will be in familiar surroundings with not a big crowd of strangers around him..

Not my place to criticize even though I have my opinion on this. Understand the concern regarding their pre-existing medical conditions and it is your lives, hopefully you are able to make it through. Please check back in once it passes.
1621. hmroe
Quoting 1605. Michale:



It's not so much the medical care, but the emotional care for our grandson with autism.. We have the medications necessary for our grandson with epilepsy, but our little one with autism is 2 yrs and the social anxiety of an evacuation would just brutalize the little guy... I realize that being in a cat 4 is not going to be a picnic but at least he will be in familiar surroundings with not a big crowd of strangers around him..


I highly doubt this what his doctor would advise. Emergency Management has plans for Special Needs. Staying there is not smart.
1622. barbamz
Quoting 1591. hurricanehanna:

Have we heard fromf Baha this morning ?

Very early this morning before dawn she was in, reporting intermittent power loss.
Appears this storm has a mind of its own. Amazing how every storm has its own personality.

Quoting 1613. pipelines:

I can't believe how low Matthew's pressure is when looking at it's satellite appearance. It looks terrible for a sub 940 hurricane. CDO is really asymmetric, eye is ragged and cloud filled, cloud tops aren't extremely cold. How often do you see intensifying cat 4/5 hurricanes with ragged cloud filled eyes? Virtually never.
Quoting 1567. nrtiwlnvragn:

Extent of winds:

Wind Radii
The outermost radii represents 34 knot winds The second wind radii represents 50 knot winds The next radii represents 64 knot winds.







Link for larger


Note to people who may have never seen this, this is a Navy projection it includes ocean conditions that might become unfavorable in the forecast area.
All beach access in Volusia County, FL (this includes Daytona Beach) will be closed by 6 PM today.
I used to live in Melbourne, in the Eau Gallie area. I hope they all stay safe and sound.

Evacuation for people along the coast is a no-brainer. I empathize with it being a tougher decision for people who live inland. I used to live in a volcano and landslide-prone part of South America, and realized that sometimes people don't heed warnings to leave because they are worried about robbery. I wouldn't be surprised at all if that were the case in some areas near Melbourne.
Here's a couple on the beach making their own sand bags....



WOW... now I've seen 6 people on the beach getting sand.

Isn't that kinda illegal?
Quoting 1605. Michale:



It's not so much the medical care, but the emotional care for our grandson with autism.. We have the medications necessary for our grandson with epilepsy, but our little one with autism is 2 yrs and the social anxiety of an evacuation would just brutalize the little guy... I realize that being in a cat 4 is not going to be a picnic but at least he will be in familiar surroundings with not a big crowd of strangers around him..


I know every situation is different, however, I have a son with autism.... and I would never let that be a reason to put him in harms way. Yes, an evac will be difficult for him. You can deal with it, he can deal with it... because you have to. Not trying to be rude, but I want to get my point across. Take his favorite things. Take books, toys, a favorite blanket or stuffed animal. Hold him. If noise is an issue, take headphones. Please be responsible.
Fleet of 200 Center point units already on their way towards Florida this morning from the Houston area.
1630. mrjr101
Quoting 1613. pipelines:

I can't believe how low Matthew's pressure is when looking at it's satellite appearance. It looks terrible for a sub 940 hurricane. CDO is really asymmetric, eye is ragged and cloud filled, cloud tops aren't extremely cold. How often do you see intensifying cat 4/5 hurricanes with ragged cloud filled eyes? Virtually never.

Great post. Agree 100%
Quoting 1565. Michale:



I understand and all things being equal, that is good advice.. But we have an autistic grandchild and another grandchild with epilepsy... There is no where we can evac to that would give the medical care we need..

We weather'ed Floyd a lot closer to the coast, so we should be OK.....

'Appreciate the advice and, under other circumstances, it's the best advice to follow....


I have an autistic adult daughter in a special needs group home. I know it seems easier to stay - I've been through that kind of hell having to deal with sudden shifts in situations. Better to make the escape now, because the whole idea of trying to get an overwhelmed stimming kiddo and a medically fragile child onto an escape boat during those conditions just can't be easier than waiting it out in an evac center. Please reconsider.
1632. Michale
Quoting 1620. PSUwxCE23:


Not my place to criticize even though I have my opinion on this. Understand the concern regarding their pre-existing medical conditions and it is your lives, hopefully you are able to make it through. Please check back in once it passes.


Thank you.. I don't begrudge the criticism because it's all A> well intention'ed and B> pretty much dead on balls accurate...

The total devastation and loss from '96 left a huge scar on my wife and I.. That coupled with the concerns for our grandchildren AND a pregnant daughter just makes it an easy decision to make.

Plus, we're on higher ground than the surrounding area and we're on the west side of the track.. I am confident we can ride it out... Hopefully that won't be my epitaph... :^D

Thanx again..
1633. zawxdsk
There are no closed or blocked highways as of this point between these areas. If someone is going this way, the smartest bet to would be to inland at I-20 west at least and cut through Augusta and make her way to Macon and head south on I-75. It's a little bit longer than 2 hours additional travel time, and obviously she should stage if the conditions are bad ahead, but should be 1000x smarter than taking I-95 and hoping for the best.

Quoting 1618. longislander102:

Need HELP and hopefully you can direct me to a map?

Friend driving south right now from New Jersey to Orlando for a wedding on Sunday.
I guess she will have to stay away from I95 the further south she gets.
Are there maps of evacuation zones, and closed highways?
Quoting 1565. Michale:



I understand and all things being equal, that is good advice.. But we have an autistic grandchild and another grandchild with epilepsy... There is no where we can evac to that would give the medical care we need..

We weather'ed Floyd a lot closer to the coast, so we should be OK.....

'Appreciate the advice and, under other circumstances, it's the best advice to follow....


Sadly, with the conditions you are likely to face, you will not be getting the medical support where you are, either. You should get out now.
1635. Patrap
1636. mrjr101
Quoting 1616. depalma13:



Oil went over $50 a barrel yesterday. The price of gas went up at least a dime everywhere in the country.


Ahhhhhhhh. How convenient. Wink Wink
Quoting 1496. kmanislander:



Wow. Another mb before I could finish my post. Question is how low will it go. History making event possibly unfolding



Last update from Josh in Nassau was 2 hours ago Link
It is absolutely crazy on the eastern end of New Providence. I have been through many hurricanes and this is the strangest. Sustained winds are probably only 80-90 MPH but the gusts are insane. Could be pushing close to 150 MPH.
I have been in storms with sustained winds of 100-110 MPH with the gust only being 120-125 MPH. This bad boy is very different, at least for New Providence.
1639. Dsntslp
Frances was a Cat 2 and we managed without too much damage to our Port Saint Lucie home. We had shutters and reinforced garage door. Then came Jeanne, a Cat 3, and I could stand in the house and literally watch walls "breathing" as they moved in and out. The roof later was found to be damaged so badly that FEMA said ten more minutes and we would have lost the whole roof. All of the nails that should have been in the framing were sitting right next to the framing just as pretty as you please. The front rafters later had to be repaired because they were all twisted. After that I swore I would never stay for anything above a two.

I also have this theory of my own that every home that has been through multiple hurricanes has been increasingly compromised even though it does not show. Had I not been taken up inside my attic by FEMA I would have never known. There are still stress fractures up there that were never replaced. Then there is the driving rain issue where water is pushed up under the eaves and comes down the walls and out inside the house. Every wall in our house has been wet at one time or another, except for the front wall under the porch. I sold the house later because of what I saw after those storms and moved out of state. 50 years of storms and nothing ever scared me as bad as Jeanne did and Matthew is coming in as a Cat 4 or 5? No way, I would never stay, even if I had to bum a ride...and sit it out in a parking garage or something. And, I would never buy a home in FL that was not built after 2005.


Cat 4 or 5, Please, I beg of you, please leave....
1640. banddfl
Edited to add - I can't seem to upload the photo - feel free to private message me if anyone can give some insight - they are not far from the intercoastal and US1 in Melbourne.


My cousins house is in red - they are headed here to the west coast, as for my friends in the blue circle they are staying put. I've tried to convince them to leave. Anyone have some insight on possible surge in their area so I can convince them to leave!? I've tried everything! I guess I need more science.....
Good Morning All! Checking in from West Boynton Beach in Palm Beach County. About 10 miles from the coast. My husband is just putting the last of the small things from the yard in the garage and then we are set here. We have the entire house shuttered and plenty of supplies. We have the AC down super low, I am currently wearing a sweater. Unfortunately I can't help with anything as I had hip surgery a week ago.

Ok now on to the important topic- currently we have a good breeze going with occational gust. The kids are outside right now getting out as much energy as possible. I will continue to update as long as I have power. If anyone can tell me how to attach a pic or video I can try and post those as well.
1642. Patrap
Miami Nexrad AMX

Base Radial Velocity .50 el

Eyewall is in view,western side


Quoting 1605. Michale:



It's not so much the medical care, but the emotional care for our grandson with autism.. We have the medications necessary for our grandson with epilepsy, but our little one with autism is 2 yrs and the social anxiety of an evacuation would just brutalize the little guy... I realize that being in a cat 4 is not going to be a picnic but at least he will be in familiar surroundings with not a big crowd of strangers around him..


NO. I've been through it. I had enough trouble getting my then 2 year old treated for a tylenol overdose, and I went without sleep for 30 hours straight next to her in the hospital. IT WAS BETTER THAN THE ALTERNATIVE. She doesn't remember the experience, and a week later she wasn't traumatized or any worse behavior-wise.

Please, as the parent of another autistic child (almost 21 now), I beg you - GO.
1646. snowboy
Quoting 1605. Michale:



It's not so much the medical care, but the emotional care for our grandson with autism.. We have the medications necessary for our grandson with epilepsy, but our little one with autism is 2 yrs and the social anxiety of an evacuation would just brutalize the little guy... I realize that being in a cat 4 is not going to be a picnic but at least he will be in familiar surroundings with not a big crowd of strangers around him..


Being dead will also brutalize the little guy.
Long time lurker here from Miami, although no one knows me I have gotten to know many on here from your posts. My prayers are with everyone in this monsters path. If there is anything my family and I can do to help anyone after the storm my email is tgonz99@gmail.com. I survived Andrew and I beg anyone in this storms path NOT to try to ride this out. I understand the fear of leaving everything behind not knowing if you are going to come back to anything...YOUR LIFE IS WORTH SO MUCH MORE. Be safe everyone.
NEW BLOG
Wind is starting to pick up in Wellington, Florida (Palm Beach County). It was eerily calm for past 24 hours.
Idiots in my neighborhood here in Longwood, FL (Seminole County) are trimming their trees today and stacking it up on the sidewalk as if it is going to get picked up... talk about debris. :(
1651. Patrap
This thing is a spinning whirling zamboni of TNT ploddng along across a sea of naphtha with roman candles attached.

There in close dancing with ghosts from the locker.




1652. jpsb
Quoting 1572. ACreativeName:


You need to go somewhere!


I've been thru lots of Hurricanes/TS the big worry is storm surge. Since Galveston Bay borders my front yard I take surge very seriously. I always have a plan on where to go to get to higher ground. I make the go stay call at 8-12 hrs before the storm is predicted to be on top of me. Doing so saved me from experiencing the nightmare Rita evac. I was all packed up and ready to roll and then local Fox predicted land fall north of Galveston Bay, yipee, I'm safe. It blew like heck but no significant surge in the bay. Two or three days you out really do not know if you are going to be in danger, even 24 hours out it's iffy, 30 miles difference in the storms track can be huge. The only bummer with waiting is if everyone else is waiting too you might get stuck on the road, not good.

This storm is going to push a lot of water in land from the cape north. If you are on the coast north of the cape now would be a good time to go inland. South of the cape you might get lucky.

Dsntslp - I quoted you on Facebook. Thanks!
1654. Patrap
936.3 mb

Ping

😨
Quoting 1632. Michale:



Thank you.. I don't begrudge the criticism because it's all A> well intention'ed and B> pretty much dead on balls accurate...

The total devastation and loss from '96 left a huge scar on my wife and I.. That coupled with the concerns for our grandchildren AND a pregnant daughter just makes it an easy decision to make.

Plus, we're on higher ground than the surrounding area and we're on the west side of the track.. I am confident we can ride it out... Hopefully that won't be my epitaph... :^D

Thanx again..


Please leave your phone number so we can check on you tomorrow afternoon. Seriously. Inbox me, please.
1656. Patrap
Is that a outer circling wind maxima forming or other...?


Other is never good.

Reports from Nassau say:
No lives lost, only one boy suffered a head injury in Exuma. Storm is over the capitol and Andros, but flooding is less than experienced during Juakim - http://original.livestream.com/znsbahamas?utm_sour ce=lsplayer&utm_medium=ui-play&utm_campaign=click- bait&utm_content=znsbahamas
Quoting 1605. Michale:



It's not so much the medical care, but the emotional care for our grandson with autism.. We have the medications necessary for our grandson with epilepsy, but our little one with autism is 2 yrs and the social anxiety of an evacuation would just brutalize the little guy... I realize that being in a cat 4 is not going to be a picnic but at least he will be in familiar surroundings with not a big crowd of strangers around him..


Is this your opinion or did you obtain a professional opinion?
1659. Patrap
1660. Dsntslp
Some posts elsewhere saying power is already out in Stuart, FL.
935.9mb
1663. Dsntslp

Motorist killed by deputies during evacuation route dispute
Link
Quoting 1544. aquak9:

a station and cam

3milesInlandFromJaxBeachFacingSouth


Aqua - are you evacuating? We are under evacuation orders from St Johns county and debating whether going to a house off Hodges is far enough, or if we should continue to Asheville. I have 6 cats to take with me, so hotels didn't work. The house on Hodges does not have any window protection (neither does my house at the beach - pretty stupid of us... but I do have flood insurance)
Quoting 1658. AreadersinceWilma:



Is this your opinion or did you obtain a professional opinion?


Y'know.....the grandparents have a better grasp on the autistic 2 y/o than some disinterested paid 3rd party.

Want to make America great again? Start by making your own well thought out decisions
Quoting 1570. NEFLWATCHING:

I sure don't want to think I might lose my home.


Me too - but as my daughter has said, the most important things to protect are our lives. All else can be rebuilt.
1667. Loduck

Quoting 1605. Michale:



It's not so much the medical care, but the emotional care for our grandson with autism.. We have the medications necessary for our grandson with epilepsy, but our little one with autism is 2 yrs and the social anxiety of an evacuation would just brutalize the little guy... I realize that being in a cat 4 is not going to be a picnic but at least he will be in familiar surroundings with not a big crowd of strangers around him..
I'm under a mandatory evac but I can see that there are those that have it so much worse. Prayers for you all and especially those grandchildren
in response to "WeathermanWannaBe", concerning nuclear plants:

What if Matthew hits a FL Nuclear Plant?

No info on whether they have shut down the plant, but they should certainly do that.
1669. A4Guy
It is driving me crazy that locat TV news keeps showing the cone overlayed with FL. They are not emphasizing that the cone at this point is super narrow here b/c we know where the center of the storm will likely pass...and not emphasizing that the cone is not representative of the wind field!

PS - some strong gusts starting in North Broward (after we had a little bit of sunshine!).
Getting rain here and there in Port St. Lucie.. we are shuttered and ready. Best to all!
From time time, ALL forecasters warn of the danger of the attendent storm surge but almost NEVER give locations or ranges of a projected surge.
For example, in the Bahamas, what is the relative surge to be expected from the western side of the storm compared to the surge generated froom the eastern side....and, if the storm moves to the west of an island does the surge occur on the eastern side of it?
Please fill in some of these gaps in your reporting.
Thanks.
Grateful to my next door neighbor who just finished helping me put my shutters up in between his conference calls. (He works in mgt with AT&T). Looks like a band should be here soon.
They closed pinellas county schools for tomorrow just in case.
Quoting 1605. Michale:



It's not so much the medical care, but the emotional care for our grandson with autism.. We have the medications necessary for our grandson with epilepsy, but our little one with autism is 2 yrs and the social anxiety of an evacuation would just brutalize the little guy... I realize that being in a cat 4 is not going to be a picnic but at least he will be in familiar surroundings with not a big crowd of strangers around him..

My niece without special needs was 18 months old when her family went through hurricane Marilyn on St Thomas. She did not speak a single word for 3 months after. It may well be as traumatic going through the storm as it would be dealing with an unfamiliar environment. I wish your family the safest outcome.
Windy in Clearwater/largo area, but could be from something else..
Where is everyone? I hope they are preparing.
1677. Patrap
1678. Patrap
1679. Patrap
Quoting 1679. Patrap:



2muchradar4me