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Matthew Stalls and Weakens, but Expected to Head North; Threat to U.S. Increases

By: Jeff Masters 4:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2016

Hurricane Matthew is weaker as it meanders over the central Caribbean south of Haiti, but the mighty Category 4 hurricane is expected to move northwards later today and deliver a punishing blow to the islands of Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica on Monday and Tuesday. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft made three passes through the eye of Matthew on Sunday morning, and found that Matthew’s winds had weakened to 140 mph and the central pressure had risen to 947 mb. This weakening may be partially due to the fact Matthew has essentially stalled, allowing the storm to bring up cooler waters from below. In addition, satellite loops on Sunday morning showed that Matthew had wrapped some dry air into its circulation, and this may have contributed to weakening of the storm. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is affecting Matthew, and the storm is over warm ocean waters of 28.5°C (83°F) and has plenty of moisture to work with: 75 - 80% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere, as analyzed by the SHIPS model. The outer spiral bands of Matthew can be seen on Jamaican radar. Matthew will pass within 50 miles of NOAA buoy 42058 late this afternoon. At 9:50 am EDT Sunday, winds at the buoy were 47 mph, gusting to 56 mph, and seas were 23 feet.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Matthew.

Two-day track forecast for Matthew
Despite Matthew drifting a bit further westward than expected on Sunday morning, the models are very unified in their two-day track forecasts for Matthew. A large upper-level low pressure system over east-central U.S. will pull Matthew to the north through Tuesday, resulting in a landfall or a near-miss in southwest Haiti on Monday night, followed by a second landfall in eastern Cuba/northwest Haiti on Tuesday morning. Matthew will then continue northwards into the southeastern Bahamas on Tuesday afternoon. In their 11 am EDT Sunday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest odds of hurricane-force winds to Les Cayes in southwest Haiti (35%) and to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba (31%). Lower odds were given to Kingston, Jamaica (6%) and Port-Au-Prince, Haiti (6%).


Figure 2. View of Matthew’s eye as seen from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters on their Saturday morning flight. Image credit: ARWO Lt Froelich, Air Force hurricane hunters.

Two-day intensity forecast for Matthew
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will steadily drop during the next two days, becoming very low, less than 5 knots, by Monday afternoon. At the same time, ocean temperatures will warm to 29° C (84°F) and the heat content of the ocean will increase, which ordinarily would argue for re-intensification of Matthew. However, this morning’s observation that dry air was getting wrapped into the circulation may mean that intensification will struggle to occur today and Monday. Furthermore, this morning’s hurricane hunter flight showed evidence of a secondary maximum in winds outside of the eyewall. This may be an indication that Matthew could undergo an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), where the inner eyewall collapses and is replaced by a larger-diameter eye, with a new eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. This process usually causes a weakening to the storm’s top winds for a day or so. The down side of an ERC is that it spreads out the storm’s hurricane-force winds over a wider area, resulting in severe impacts over a wider area. Our top three intensity models—the HWRF, LGEM, and SHIPS models—were predicting on Sunday morning that Matthew would be at Category 3 or 4 strength at landfall on Monday evening. The SHIPS model gave Matthew a 0% chance of rapid intensification of 30 mph or more by Monday morning. All factors considered, a Category 3 hurricane at landfall Monday night is probably the most likely scenario. It is unknown what role, it any, the unusual blob of heavy thunderstorms that has persisted on Matthew’s east side might play in the future evolution of the storm. If this intense area of thunderstorms remains intact through Monday night, it could result in catastrophic rains for Haiti.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Matthew taken at 2:30 pm EDT October 1, 2016. At the time, Matthew was a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Longer-range intensity forecast for Matthew
Matthew’s anticipated landfall over Jamaica/Cuba/Haiti on Monday will weaken the storm, due to the high mountains it will interact with. However, it now appears that Matthew will have limited time over land, due to the storm’s expected track mostly over the water areas between Haiti and Cuba. While this is good news for those nations, this would be bad news for The Bahamas. Matthew inner core may be able to survive the land interaction, resulting in a much stronger storm in the Bahamas. The latest 12Z Sunday SHIPS model forecast predicts low to moderate wind shear, a very moist atmosphere and near-record warm ocean temperatures near 30°C (84°F) for Matthew later this week when it is over The Bahamas, so we can expect strengthening. Matthew is likely to be a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane for at least a portion of its trek through The Bahamas. As Matthew moves north of the Bahamas, waters will cool and the shear is likely to increase, resulting in some weakening late this week.





Figure 4. The 70 forecasts from the 00Z Sunday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (top) and GFS model ensemble (bottom) were beginning to converge on a solution for the track of Matthew that would put the storm very close the U.S. East Coast late this week. In their 11 am EDT Sunday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest 5-day odds of tropical storm-force winds in the U.S. to West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale, Florida (24%), with probabilities of 15 - 20% along most of the North Carolina coast.

Longer-range track forecast for Matthew: risk increases to U.S. East Coast
Over the past two days, our two best computer models have been trending towards a more westerly track for Matthew late this week, increasing the odds that Matthew will make a direct hit somewhere along the U.S. East Coast. Sunday’s 00Z European model and 06Z GFS model had Matthew coming very close to or making landfall in North Carolina 6 - 7 days from now. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 4), just about any location along the East Coast could potentially see a hurricane landfall this week. Since the hurricane is expected to be moving roughly parallel to the coast, a long stretch of the coast may receive strong winds and heavy rain from Matthew. We do have three decent models predicting a path for Matthew well away for the U.S. coast late in the week, though—the HWRF, Canadian and GFDL—so it is not yet a foregone conclusion that Matthew will impact the U.S. coast.

98L: A potential steering influence on Matthew?
An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave that (designated Invest 98L by NHC on Sunday morning) is over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles, and may alter the steering currents for Matthew. Over 50% of the members of the 00Z Sunday European ensemble forecasts predicted that this system would develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm as it heads northwest at about 15 mph early this week; the GFS model showed virtually no development. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 30%, respectively. If this storm develops significantly, it may exert a steering influence on Matthew that could help pull it out to sea. Satellite loops on Sunday morning showed that 98L had a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was poorly organized, thanks to dry air and high wind shear of 25 - 30 knots. The 12Z Sunday SHIPS model forecast predicted wind shear would rise even higher by Tuesday—in excess of 50 knots—so I doubt 98L will be able to develop.


Figure 5. Track forecasts from the four European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line] during the first 72 hours, starting at 00Z Sunday, October 2, 2016. The red line is a version of the 00Z Sunday operational model track that has been adjusted and calibrated using a proprietary technique to account for systemic model errors. Four out of five of these forecasts showed Matthew hitting the U.S. The high-probability cluster (grey lines) perform best at forecast times of five days and beyond. Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).

We’ll be back this afternoon with an update on Matthew. Meteorologist Steve Gregory has also been making regular updates on Matthew,

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. FOREX
Quoting 984. CycloneBoy:



That may turn out to be true, but not guaranteed in anyway at this point. Not responsible reporting unless it is mentioned that its a hopeful scenario...
Hmmm, well so far Matthew has not hit one of the NHC's forecast points, so I think Florida MET's should be a bit more conservative right now.
It's growing increasingly more unlikely that florida is going to be severely affected by matthew, honestly.
Quoting 1001. FOREX:

Hmmm, well so far Matthew has not hit one of the NHC's forecast points, so I think Florida MET's should be a bit more conservative right now.
yep, the storms last night were shaking my building....

Quoting 997. ArmyTomFL:

Typical August after..wait! What! It's October 2???
Where's the cold front??
What storm?
This is normal for summer!


1005. nash36
Matthew would need to turn due N right now to be on NHC forecast points. Given the flow he is in, with that High extending about 4 degrees of longitude to his west, it doesn't appear likely that turn will happen tonight.
The one thing I see that could cause a northward movement is a few of the Gonzo dropsondes to the east of Matthew are showing winds out of the south.

example

1004mb (Surface) 110 (from the ESE) 30 knots (35 mph)
990mb 115 (from the ESE) 32 knots (37 mph)
966mb 125 (from the SE) 24 knots (28 mph)
941mb 140 (from the SE) 24 knots (28 mph)
897mb 150 (from the SSE) 35 knots (40 mph)
877mb 150 (from the SSE) 31 knots (36 mph)
850mb 165 (from the SSE) 36 knots (41 mph)
749mb 170 (from the S) 48 knots (55 mph)
566mb 185 (from the S) 35 knots (40 mph)
440mb 180 (from the S) 21 knots (24 mph)
411mb 180 (from the S) 23 knots (26 mph)
371mb 205 (from the SSW) 28 knots (32 mph)
284mb 205 (from the SSW) 32 knots (37 mph)
179mb 195 (from the SSW) 11 knots (13 mph)
162mb 235 (from the SW) 9 knots (10 mph)

Or duh, its just Matthews circulation........
1007. Gearsts
Quoting 1000. Kyon5:

What does that mean?
Some models are showing a monster -NAO.
Quoting 1001. FOREX:

Hmmm, well so far Matthew has not hit one of the NHC's forecast points, so I think Florida MET's should be a bit more conservative right now.


I'm not sure where he's getting that information. I'm in S. Florida and the local mets I follow on Twitter are very concerned about Matthew. They brought up the NHC having 24% of tropical force winds which is a very high percentage this far out.
based on models that are still 4-5 days out?


Quoting 1003. jordan1tylerr:

It's growing increasingly more unlikely that florida is going to be severely affected by matthew, honestly.

1010. Hhunter
I expect to see hurricane wind field expansion soon
Quoting 966. charlottefl:

These are GFS 500mb heights starting @ 0 hours....

Current:



12 hours



See how the portion of the ridge right at the east coast of FL disappears? The ULL over the northern part of the country slides east and with it the trough lifts out creating a temporary weakness over the Western Atlantic. That is your channel for the storm to move north.

Now whether it actually materializes like that is based on what model you look at. It's a best guess based on the how the model interprets data, and so is the timing. That's why all of the models have slightly different solutions. All of the features are slightly different.


Why does anyone trust the GFS when it comes to the strength of a high. This model is wrong more then it is right, on the strength of highs and lows. This model mostly underestimates the strength of the highs and over estimates the strength of lows
Quoting 998. cirrocumulus:

NAM is closer to Miami.

Doesn't the NAM typically perform poorly with tropical systems?
Quoting 968. ArmyTomFL:


Near Tampa- serious July-August Bermuda strong high like storms racing across the peninsula smashing into the west
Coast seebreeze! The high is strong in Tampa!!!
Small hail, lightning, 3" per/hr rain, and some downburst gusts to 40ish! Normal August Sunday afternoon


And yet another weather delay in Tampa with the Bucs-Broncos.
Quoting 986. DeepSeaRising:

No way this pinhole eye can maintain much longer, big wrench on intensity will be what Matthew looks like coming out of ERC which should occur tonight some time.


As with Katrina, the big problem with an ERC is that the wind field expands so the damaging winds and surge occur over a larger area.
1015. Patrap
1 km viz

1016. nash36
Quoting 1006. nrtiwlnvragn:

The one thing I see that could cause a northward movement is a few of the Gonzo dropsondes to the east of Matthew are showing winds out of the south.

example

1004mb (Surface) 110° (from the ESE) 30 knots (35 mph)
990mb 115° (from the ESE) 32 knots (37 mph)
966mb 125° (from the SE) 24 knots (28 mph)
941mb 140° (from the SE) 24 knots (28 mph)
897mb 150° (from the SSE) 35 knots (40 mph)
877mb 150° (from the SSE) 31 knots (36 mph)
850mb 165° (from the SSE) 36 knots (41 mph)
749mb 170° (from the S) 48 knots (55 mph)
566mb 185° (from the S) 35 knots (40 mph)
440mb 180° (from the S) 21 knots (24 mph)
411mb 180° (from the S) 23 knots (26 mph)
371mb 205° (from the SSW) 28 knots (32 mph)
284mb 205° (from the SSW) 32 knots (37 mph)
179mb 195° (from the SSW) 11 knots (13 mph)
162mb 235° (from the SW) 9 knots (10 mph)


They are, but that SLY flow is east of where he is now. Where he is now, he is in a SELY flow, which translates to a NW movement.

1017. CW7859
Quoting 950. thetwilightzone:

it looks like we may need too throw out all the model runs it looks too me too be moving WNW right for Jamaica


I posted this in another blog, but since you brought it up I'll post it here as well:

I was just looking at the vis sat and counting the frames, starting 6 hours ago it was at 14N and 74.5W. It's currently at 14.5N and 75W. That .5 in each direction and true NW. According to my math if it doesn't change speed or direction, in 12hrs (6am) it'll be at 15.5N and 76W.

The SE tip of Jamaica is about 76.2W, so if Matthew isn't going due north before 6am tomorrow the center will pass somewhere over SE Jamaica. And that would be west of the forecast models.
Quoting 1003. jordan1tylerr:

It's growing increasingly more unlikely that florida is going to be severely affected by matthew, honestly.



This is not true at all. Ukie shows Florida hit and some EPS want to take Matthew into the Gulf of Mexico.
still water vapor
mark
14.55N/75.01W
Quoting 955. FTmyersZ:

Agreed...but what weakens th ridge....that's what I'm not seeing, the Ohio/Indy low is now riding the ridge nne, not pushing the ridge east. It's in Ontario now. Why are the models insisting on a n turn like yesterday? Just don't get it

the NHC track shows a bending to the north, not a direct right turn right away.

BUCS vs BRONCOS
Tampa, FL
SUSPENDED
LIGHTNING/severe weather

2nd week in a row!

Hasn't happened since mid 2000s???????

Where's my tin foil hat ?
1022. Crazman
Quoting 1012. MrTornadochase:


Doesn't the NAM typically perform poorly with tropical systems?


The NAM is better the closer it is to the mainland US.
1023. K8eCane
Quoting 962. thetwilightzone:

i think the GFS is a out liner


LOL...Im not even concerned about the models 5 days out Taz because we know they change. What Im curious about is that power pack Matthew carried with him that worked in tandem with him. Will be interesting to hear what the pros think in later reports. As always NHC is the road map for Matthew.
1024. jonelu
Quoting 900. islandblow:

Flooding starts in Kingston Jamaica as night falls. Worst time for a hurricane to begin striking.

Link


That is insane.....those poor people.
Quoting 976. oceanblues32:

This scenerio would put my home back into play I am on the coast just north of miami.




It's the NAM though. For tropical storm prediction, it ranks up there with the Lbar and Clipper, imho. If you turn to it for tropical guidance, 98% of the time you will be steered wrong.
Matthew after a temporary lull in intensifying appears to be back at it. His traveling convection ball has also, for the first time today, begun to intensify also. And quickly at that.
1027. Hhunter
Quoting 985. BioWeather:

Good evening everyone. I've been mainly a lurker on this site since 2007. I just have to make a comment, though about how much better this site is now. I just want to learn the basics about hurricanes but the blog used to have so many people just arguing before that it was difficult to weed through it all and actually learn something. I don't know what has changed (some people gone?) but kudos. I have been listening for about four days now, (since Matthew became a monster) and I have learned more in these four days than I have in the past nine years. Thank you!! Please keep up the good work for us that are so interested and just want to learn. I'm in NC (moved here from So. Florida six years) ago and Matthew is possibly trying to wreck my birthday on Saturday. He wouldn't dare! I'm going back to lurking now but I just had to say that. :-)


I think if you get a direct hit its 10 or 12 days away otherwise its a miss or glancing blow
Quoting 1017. CW7859:



I posted this is another blog, but since you brought it up I'll post it here as well:

I was just looking at the vis sat and counting the frames, starting 6 hours ago it was at 14N and 74.5W. It's currently at 14.5N and 75W. That .5 in each direction and true NW. According to my math if it doesn't change speed or direction, in 12hrs (6am) it'll be at 15.5N and 76W.

The SE tip of Jamaica is about 76.2W, so if Matthew isn't going due north before 6am tomorrow the center will pass somewhere over SE Jamaica. And that would be west of the forecast models.



yep and it looks like that may be the case
Don't rule anything out, but the odds of that are really slim
Quoting 976. oceanblues32:

This scenerio would put my home back into play I am on the coast just north of miami.


Quoting 1002. Patrap:

4 km pop up floater

Matthew's cloud field is expanding
Quoting 996. 62901IL:

Catwing Island (located at 15N 75W) looks to be in the Northern Eyewall of Matthew.




There is an island out there? I must investigate.
The way the Bucs are playing right now, I would just forfeit the rest of the game.
Quoting 1021. ArmyTomFL:

BUCS vs BRONCOS
Tampa, FL
SUSPENDED
LIGHTNING/severe weather

2nd week in a row!

Hasn't happened since mid 2000s???????

Where's my tin foil hat ?
1033. 62901IL
Quoting 1031. QueensWreath:




There is an island out there? I must investigate.


No, there's not. Catwing island is a figment of my imaginiation.
am going too take a shower and be back and hop fully the recon will be in the center by then this wait in killing me so am going to go kill a little time by taking a shower be back
Quoting 1002. Patrap:

4 km pop up floater

Matthew is huge and still has his blob buddy.

1036. ProPoly
Quoting 991. Xyrus2000:



Looking at the model runs, I don't see that any of them expected him to weaken in the near term. This is allowing Matt to be influenced more by low level steering (NW).


This is (one of) the main points. The 940-949mb range simply doesn't allow for straight N movement right now. Check the steering, that ridge is a wall and well to the west of Matthew as well.
Quoting 950. thetwilightzone:

it looks like we may need too throw out all the model runs it looks too me too be moving WNW right for Jamaica


That has been my novice opinion since friday. I'm prepared to be really surprised if this thing tracks within 100 miles of the center of the 5pm cone.
1039. ohzone
Quoting 988. waccamatt:



A 951 mb hurricane landfalling in Nova Scotia is almost beyond the realm of possibility.
You are right. Water too cool. Maybe a tropical storm.
Haha, the figment strikes again.
Quoting 1033. 62901IL:



No, there's not. Catwing island is a figment of my imaginiation.
1041. Patrap
Typical STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE STORMS FL
Quoting 1016. nash36:



They are, but that SLY flow is east of where he is now. Where he is now, he is in a SELY flow, which translates to a NW movement.




The whole feature on this map is going to pull to the N, and eventually NE. Again, due to the movement of the low up near the tip of Greenland. I think...and per the models...

Quoting 988. waccamatt:



A 951 mb hurricane landfalling in Nova Scotia is almost beyond the realm of possibility.


Hurricane Juan's lowest reading was 969mb before hitting Nova Scotia.. and that is considered Canada's most destructive Hurricane in the modern era by many.
Quoting 1024. jonelu:



That is insane.....those poor people.


wait the anguish and suffering is yet too commence

this is a
High Impact Event
that is yet to happen

completion of prep to protect live and property has passed
hunker down wait it out mode is in effect
We should not discount the convection behind Matthew firing incredibly strong convection again. Every time it builds, it has coincided with an intensity increase with Matthew.
Full Version: http://i.imgur.com/0QQ370d.gif

Quoting 1033. 62901IL:



No, there's not. Catwing island is a figment of my imaginiation.


Well I did not need to search long before all sorts of unsundry things started showing up. Thanks not... But i like a good joke.
1049. 7544
Cant help but notice the closer the gfs gets to south fl mathew jumps or does a wobble west anyone notice that tia
(I do not know the women in the picture)

That blob is like mathew's bird dog


1051. nash36
Quoting 1043. StormJunkie:



The whole feature on this map is going to pull to the N, and eventually NE. Again, due to the movement of the low up near the tip of Greenland. I think...and per the models...




I completely agree; however, that would need to happen NOW, in order for Matthew to not only hit the forecast point, but to also jive with the major models.

Given how close the models bring this to a landfall in the SE, even 1-1.5 degrees on longitude, downstream, can make or break whether this goes OTS.
Quoting 1043. StormJunkie:



The whole feature on this map is going to pull to the N, and eventually NE. Again, due to the movement of the low up near the tip of Greenland. I think...and per the models...


That low is transient, and will move towards the E/NE, thus allowing the high to fill in more to the West.


The BERMUDA HIGH IS STRONG
looks like eyewall reconstruction

you can see stadium effect
Quoting 1018. BigMan1005:



This is not true at all. Ukie shows Florida hit and some EPS want to take Matthew into the Gulf of Mexico.

Could you provide a link to where I can see an EPS model showing the possible Gulf of Mexico track? Please?
Quoting 1021. ArmyTomFL:

BUCS vs BRONCOS
Tampa, FL
SUSPENDED
LIGHTNING/severe weather

2nd week in a row!

Hasn't happened since mid 2000s???????

Where's my tin foil hat ?


Did you look at the radar? Most impressive line coming thru.
Quoting 1039. ohzone:

You are right. Water too cool. Maybe a tropical storm.


It would be baroclinically enhanced. It would not be a tropical system at that point
Quoting 1031. QueensWreath:




There is an island out there? I must investigate.
island out there not much longer
Quoting 1035. Chicklit:


Matthew is huge and still has his blob buddy.




The twin is back and looking healthy with lots of cold cloud tops. There is a bit more separation between the two than we saw yesterday, but like all twins, they are developing separate interests as they mature. The twin seems to be taking the Northerly pull a bit more and shielding it's older brother so he can (dare I say it) go WNW or flatter. Last frame is even just South of West. Surely not another loop?
the model is assuming the trough is going to have that much exertion as well.....it may, it may not.

Quoting 1052. NativeSun:

That low is transient, and will move towards the E/NE, thus allowing the high to fill in more to the West.
Quoting 1053. ArmyTomFL:



The BERMUDA HIGH IS STRONG

This is a bit west for the Bermuda High.
Quoting 1058. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

island out there not much longer


LOL KEEP
1063. Patrap


I think nova scotia needs to keep a close eye on this one ! Im in halifax . I know its a ways out but alot of midels bring some sort of effect to us . This run puts a landfall just southwest of halifax !
Matthew is at 75 below 15
Quoting 1048. QueensWreath:



Well I did not need to search long before all sorts of unsundry things started showing up. Thanks not... But i like a good joke.
their is some unnamed land out there here I will show ya wait give me a second
Quoting 1051. nash36:



I completely agree; however, that would need to happen NOW, in order for Matthew to not only hit the forecast point, but to also jive with the major models.

Given how close the models bring this to a landfall in the SE, even 1-1.5 degrees on longitude, downstream, can make or break whether this goes OTS.


Not disagreeing with that, just saying that the slower he goes, the further E the models will trend because the Rex block will be firmly in place over the SE and the W edge of the AB high will be weaker.
1068. evsnds
It almost looks like he's beginning a cyclonic loop, need another few frames to confirm. If that's the case, a full northward turn is imminent.
Quoting 1047. lopaka001:

Full Version: http://i.imgur.com/0QQ370d.gif


Looks like paintings from Van Gogh. ;-)
Jamaica is island top left and the shoal is se of that may be under water quite easily just from a windy day

1071. nash36
Quoting 1067. StormJunkie:



Not disagreeing with that, just saying that the slower he goes, the further E the models will trend because the Rex block will be firmly in place over the SE and the W edge of the AB high will be weaker.


Agree, my friend.

Timing, as always, will mean everything.

If, by some chance, this ends up paying us a serious visit, you sticking around?
Yeah, I was thinking that.
Quoting 1068. evsnds:

It almost looks like he's beginning a cyclonic loop, need another few frames to confirm. If that's the case, a full northward turn is imminent.
Quoting 1063. Patrap:






Thanks brother!
Was just north of winter haven bout an hour and a half ago, caught the outflow from those tstorms. Steady 20 KT breeze for 30 mins until they passed, then calm. 2nd batch building in from the south brought more winds.
Quoting 1068. evsnds:

It almost looks like he's beginning a cyclonic loop, need another few frames to confirm. If that's the case, a full northward turn is imminent.


That was said after the last 2 loops at which he turned back WNW-NW after that

I wont believe it until I see it
Quoting 1071. nash36:



Agree, my friend.

Timing, as always, will mean everything.

If, by some chance, this ends up paying us a serious visit, you sticking around?


Yeah. I will be in town somewhere. Thinking we will have a pretty good resolution one way or another by tomorrow when Gonzo starts flying two a days...and hopefully in the Atl.
Quoting 1068. evsnds:

It almost looks like he's beginning a cyclonic loop, need another few frames to confirm. If that's the case, a full northward turn is imminent.


lol that's what people have been saying for days

Matthew finally caught a break with shear
Quoting 1070. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Jamaica is island top left and the shoal is se of that may be under water quite easily just from a windy day




Nice play keep.
Quoting 1075. Hurricanes101:



That was said after the last 2 loops at which he turned back WNW-NW after that

I wont believe it until I see it

I literally said those exact words lol, like its the movie Groundhog day with this storm.
Quoting 1069. bluehaze27:

Looks like paintings from Van Gogh. ;-)


Now this is Awesome!
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/nat l/main.html

I just see it going furthar west before it starts turning tell me your thoughts!
Quoting 1044. stribe37:



Hurricane Juan's lowest reading was 969mb before hitting Nova Scotia.. and that is considered Canada's most destructive Hurricane in the modern era by many.


Igor hit us in Newfoundland as an at least 75 knot system - hurricane force winds were observed from St. John's to at least Bonavista, and these were on the left side and on land. The central pressure was in the 950-960 range - baroclinic lows up here can get into the 940mb range when conditions are right, so it is not unbelievable for a post-tropical system to reach that strength.
Quoting 1070. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Jamaica is island top left and the shoal is se of that may be under water quite easily just from a windy day




It's an extension of Albatross Bank so are we calling it Albatross shoal or maybe reef for the purposes of the blog? Either way I think it might need another google map overpass if Matthew picks it out.
Quoting 1045. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



wait the anguish and suffering is yet too commence

this is a
High Impact Event
that is yet to happen

completion of prep to protect live and property has passed
hunker down wait it out mode is in effect
Keeper, I had asked you previously about your feeling on due north at 75...you may have answered but I didn't see it. Which steering pattern map do you believe is controlling here? It does appear that South winds begin to prevail at higher altitudes. Are assuming that the storm is going to intensify further to get below (higher cloud tops actually) the magic 500MB level?
Hi all! Do you think that the rain will come to the Clearwater area? I'm praying that it's very dry here because I don't feel like shop vacuuming the water out of my house! I know the storm will be no where near us, but will the rain stay away too? Thank you all! Too much rain scares me!
1088. nash36
If you're watching Michael Lowry, he just said something everyone should burn into their brains; I'm paraphrasing.

"The models all shifted east, taking Jamaica out of the cone. There is still a westward component to Matthew."

In other words, look at the real-time conditions. Even the models couldn't get the 24hr forecast right.
hurricane force winds have definitely expanded
18z GFDL is very close to the OBX and has shifted W a couple degrees. Early part of the run still shows it never making 75W, so not sure what to make of that.



1091. evsnds
Quoting 1081. nygiants:


I literally said those exact words lol, like its the movie Groundhog day with this storm.


LOL. I believe it. I'm just going to be completely stumped if it doesn't stop soon. Really making a CONUS landfall or eastern seaboard brushing much more likely the longer it takes to turn.
1092. no1der

Eye is clearing out.
Quoting 1089. masiello3:

hurricane force winds have definitely expanded



i dont think there even at the center yet
oh boy does matthew look good, don't be surprised to see this a 5 tonight or tomorrow morning.
1095. nash36
Quoting 1090. StormJunkie:

18z GFDL is very close to the OBX and has shifted W a couple degrees. Early part of the run still shows it never making 75W, so not sure what to make of that.






I do.

Out to lunch. The models have to be discarded, considering none of them are predicting what is currently happening, which is totally frustrating.

Aint weather fun??
hey Baha...have a look at this video it is quite clever and can at least bring some humor to a dire situation...especially if Matthew decides to visit Nassau!!

Link!

we are pretty much all set here in Exuma...thankfully we have some time still to prepare...
Quoting 1089. masiello3:

hurricane force winds have definitely expanded
yeah it will continue too do so until it nears eastern end of cuba then weaken till north of their and begin the regain as it fully enters the mid Bahaman island chains and gives a second attempt for cat 5 status once again
Tomorrow is only a day a way.
Quoting 908. Envoirment:

Matthew should start benefitting from this over the next few hours or so:



Still has some sheer ahead of it though.
looks like it is all over that 75W magic number.
1101. nash36
Quoting 1098. sporteguy03:

Tomorrow is only a day a way.


Thank you, Annie.

LOL!
Jeff Masters just sent me an advance copy of his next blog update....here it is, in its entirety:

"Damned if I know..."
Quoting 1092. no1der:


Eye is clearing out.
high end cat four once fully clear EWRC will commence after that
Quoting 1063. Patrap:






That loop actually shows some of the layers in play...(ATM) over Florida. Look at the motion of not only the storms but the direction of their blowoff to the NNW and then N. Upper level steering does have a North component to it at the moment. Things are fluid. I was actually not expecting the blowoff to have that much of a N and NNE component.
Quoting 1092. no1der:


Eye is clearing out.


yep eye clearing out and good timing i think mat has a ch of cat 5 tonight
Quoting 1061. Chicklit:


This is a bit west for the Bermuda High.


ahhh but a flesh wound
1107. drs2008
Quoting 1088. nash36:

If you're watching Michael Lowry, he just said something everyone should burn into their brains; I'm paraphrasing.

"The models all shifted east, taking Jamaica out of the cone. There is still a westward component to Matthew."

In other words, look at the real-time conditions. Even the models couldn't get the 24hr forecast right.
hey everybody. With regards to the models, remember how far off they were with ike and debbie ?
Matthew's twin is back with a vengeance tonight :) Amazing and unique TC
1109. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 022324
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Matthew, located over the central Caribbean Sea to the south-
southeast of Jamaica.

A broad low pressure system located about 500 miles northeast of the
Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some development of this low could occur in the next couple of days
before strong upper-level winds make conditions unfavorable for
formation. This system is expected to move northwestward at 10 to
15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Landsea
Quoting 1021. ArmyTomFL:

BUCS vs BRONCOS
Tampa, FL
SUSPENDED
LIGHTNING/severe weather

2nd week in a row!

Hasn't happened since mid 2000s???????

Where's my tin foil hat ?


You should not wear your tin foil hat in a lightning storm.
Weather channel said 50 foot waves
Quoting 1079. Chicklit:


Matthew finally caught a break with shear


40 knot shear!
1113. jimijr
As a side note, the distinctive cirrus pattern in the northern outflow channel would certainly have alerted the Jesuit fathers in Cuba that one of their 'children' was approaching. Alerts and evacuations would already be underway. Such a display may also have been what alerted Columbus on a later voyage, with a large fleet.
Quoting 1108. Surferdude:

Matthew's twin is back with a vengeance tonight :) Amazing and unique TC


I guess that RIP picture was premature
Quoting 1084. MaxL1023:



Igor hit us in Newfoundland as an at least 75 knot system - hurricane force winds were observed from St. John's to at least Bonavista, and these were on the left side and on land. The central pressure was in the 950-960 range - baroclinic lows up here can get into the 940mb range when conditions are right, so it is not unbelievable for a post-tropical system to reach that strength.
where abouts are ya
Possible cyclonic loop.
Quoting 1088. nash36:

If you're watching Michael Lowry, he just said something everyone should burn into their brains; I'm paraphrasing.

"The models all shifted east, taking Jamaica out of the cone. There is still a westward component to Matthew."

In other words, look at the real-time conditions. Even the models couldn't get the 24hr forecast right.

That is exactly what I have been doing, not that I know what I'm looking at, lol
Looks like another loop may happen again....
Looks like going more west now. Will this thing ever make up its mind?
re: models ...in a complex environment the permutations are exponential
I'm shocked at the winds Recon found, not as much as I expected in northern wall. Pressures are steady 943-945mb.
943.6 mb
(~ 27.87 inHg)


still not at the center yet i dont think
Turn may be imminent, if this is a loop it may be the one.
Quoting 1116. jordan1tylerr:

Possible cyclonic loop.


Wow. Matthew must be dizzy by now.
1125. Loduck
Quoting 1065. Chicklit:

Matthew is at 75 below 15

And his leeetle friend is mostly above 15
Quoting 1088. nash36:

If you're watching Michael Lowry, he just said something everyone should burn into their brains; I'm paraphrasing.

"The models all shifted east, taking Jamaica out of the cone. There is still a westward component to Matthew."

In other words, look at the real-time conditions. Even the models couldn't get the 24hr forecast right.

I think he misspoke or you misheard...just now he said the DR is out of the cone
the winds have gone down a little, i wonder if earlier it went through a EWRC when the eye became cloudy and now the winds are trying to go back up. The pressure has remained fairly constant.
I believe after a period of weakening Matthew is starting to reintensify again. Matthew seems to be a 120 mph storm atm, but I doubt that will last. Latest images show the eye wall cooling along with the eye itself clearing out again. Windfield has expanded, but I'm not seeing any indication of a second eyewall forming at least from what the AF is showing from the NW/N eyewall.


Edit: Latest microwave pass show a second eyewall may be trying to form from the southern area of the storm, but I want to see if any second wind maxima occur. Tbh I think it just a feeder.
center at 14.5 and 75 per recon.
Quoting 1110. HurricaneDevo:



You should not wear your tin foil hat in a lightning storm.



In some cases it could be helpful. In a 1950s institutional way.
Quoting 1104. QueensWreath:



That loop actually shows some of the layers in play...(ATM) over Florida. Look at the motion of not only the storms but the direction of their blowoff to the NNW and then N. Upper level steering does have a North component to it at the moment. Things are fluid. I was actually not expecting the blowoff to have that much of a N and NNE component.


I bow to the queen, thank you for explaining it so eloquently

The steering in Tampa is 100% in play from now on!!!!
Matt was just in a weakining phase, is now clearing out eye and over the hours recon is in Matthew will strengthen.
Quoting 1047. lopaka001:

Full Version: http://i.imgur.com/0QQ370d.gif


I've been off the blog for a while due to severe med issues. What is this gorgeous image. Is this one of the newer satelites?
Most intense thunderstorms are to the south so expect the strongest winds to be there, believe they're probably only at 130-135 range. Expect those to come Up throughout the night however if this eye wall persists.
Quoting 1042. ArmyTomFL:

Typical STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE STORMS FL

We just got wacked in Orlando a couple of hours ago by very strong storms from the South. Horizontal rain (40 mph winds) and very tropical feel. Quite out of the ordinary. This makes two days in a row. That squall line going through Tampa is equally odd.
Quoting 1059. UKHWatcher:



The twin is back and looking healthy with lots of cold cloud tops. There is a bit more separation between the two than we saw yesterday, but like all twins, they are developing separate interests as they mature. The twin seems to be taking the Northerly pull a bit more and shielding it's older brother so he can (dare I say it) go WNW or flatter. Last frame is even just South of West. Surely not another loop?



The persistent parasitic twin is not interested in anything but the food.
Quoting 1114. ThisIsNotSparta:



I guess that RIP picture was premature

Should we rename the blob abe vigoda. Dead many times before his time
Quoting 1127. masiello3:

the winds have gone down a little, i wonder if earlier it went through a EWRC when the eye became cloudy and now the winds are trying to go back up. The pressure has remained fairly constant.


wind still 145 at 8pm so nop the winds have not gone down
Quoting 1127. masiello3:

the winds have gone down a little, i wonder if earlier it went through a EWRC when the eye became cloudy and now the winds are trying to go back up. The pressure has remained fairly constant.


Cold water upwelling!!
1140. Prouss


$$
Forecaster Landsea

Forecaster Landsea?
With that strengthening, I believe the turn is imminent.
Quoting 1132. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Matt was just in a weakining phase, is now clearing out eye over the hours recon is in Matthew will strengthen.
Can someone post a link to the onboard radar, i struggle to find where these are lol.
Quoting 1123. jordan1tylerr:

Turn may be imminent, if this is a loop it may be the one.


May be the one, maybe not.
1144. Prouss
Quoting 1133. TropicTraveler:

I've been off the blog for a while due to severe med issues. What is this gorgeous image. Is this one of the newer satelites?

https://earth.nullschool.net
Recent microwave pass:



Looks like some sort of EWRC taking place.
Flash backs of Ivan...its turning, ok today its going to turn....well were not sure when it will turn....they have a mind of there own.
1147. K8eCane
Quoting 1102. presslord:

Jeff Masters just sent me an advance copy of his next blog update....here it is, in its entirety:

"Damned if I know..."


LOL I hope that young lady from FL was able to find her cheap Jesus candles at Publix today. She may need em. I actually looked for some when I went out today. Can't hurt.
you guys kill the recon site the recon site is down
1149. Gaara
Quoting 1133. TropicTraveler:

I've been off the blog for a while due to severe med issues. What is this gorgeous image. Is this one of the newer satelites?


It is a just an enhanced visualization of windfields from current conditions and models.
Quoting 1099. JParsons:


Still has some sheer ahead of it though.

Also keep in mind it became a CAT5 under 20kt of shear.
Quoting 1139. ArmyTomFL:



Cold water upwelling!!
Right! forgot about that!
The strength of Matthew is best gauged by the central pressure - the maximum winds will vary quite a bit in a small-eyed system with EWRCs possible.
No one ever answered my question about Matthew's large area of convection that follows him.

What can the islands expect from the convection blob? Tons of rain, but what about wind etc. Maybe Cuba will be hit by the eyewall while Haiti gets the blob.
1128 did not mean to plus that. 120 mph, no way. Matthew is close to 150 mph minimum right now. And now that Matthew is just starting to enter SST's that will support RI if Matthew doesn't go through ERC, it's hold on to edge of your seats time.
1155. apm2084
Tropical Atlantic is down for me :(

**False alarm
Quoting 1133. TropicTraveler:

I've been off the blog for a while due to severe med issues. What is this gorgeous image. Is this one of the newer satelites?


Not simply a satellite, Only an iterpretation, but it is fascinating. Enjoy! https://earth.nullschool.net/
Quoting 1133. TropicTraveler:

I've been off the blog for a while due to severe med issues. What is this gorgeous image. Is this one of the newer satelites?
null school you can pick a whole bunch of different stuff here is the link for you bookmark it

Link
Traveling NW but NHC insisting Matthew will make NNE turn and hit east of 75W. I don't see it.
Quoting 1130. QueensWreath:




In some cases it could be helpful. In a 1950s institutional way.


Active Duty 2004-2013 Medic
I have seen it all!
Quoting 1119. weathertrouble:

Looks like going more west now. Will this thing ever make up its mind?


"West. No, north. Wait a minute, south. I got it! East! Wait, what about eastwest?" -Matthew trying to make up his mind on steering
1161. Drakoen
Quoting 1140. Prouss:



$$
Forecaster Landsea

Forecaster Landsea?


Irony.

Hard to say if Matthew is making a cyclonic loop. I would wait for a couple more frames. Matthew still looks near the edge but not past the edge of the ridge.
Quoting 1148. thetwilightzone:

you guys kill the recon site the recon site is down
f5 overload
Quoting 1133. TropicTraveler:

I've been off the blog for a while due to severe med issues. What is this gorgeous image. Is this one of the newer satelites?

I made that gif to show the winds at different levels but you can view the full site animation here:
http://ow.ly/XkMj304Medl
Not quite models

Quoting 1148. thetwilightzone:

you guys kill the recon site the recon site is down


its back up
1166. Prouss
HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp 2 minhace 2 minutos Cross Creek, Atlanta
Check out this incredible close up loop of #Matthew. Looks like it reached 75W http://i.imgur.com/AxRgxQp.gif
Quoting 1155. apm2084:

Tropical Atlantic is down for me :(


It's back up now. Looks like it was just a blip.
1168. Grothar
Right at 75 already

Quoting 1140. Prouss:



$$
Forecaster Landsea

Forecaster Landsea?
that's his last name
Quoting 1145. Envoirment:

Recent microwave pass:



Looks like some sort of EWRC may be going on.
Looks more like a reader band rather than a secondary eye wall forming.
Quoting 1150. MrTornadochase:


Also keep in mind it became a CAT5 under 20kt of shear.


But this is 40kt. Unless Matthew Jr. defends against that, it looks like some temporary weakening.
I'm going to say pressures will start falling pretty quick, may get into the 930s in a couple hours, there is nothing that will weaken Matthew for the next 24 hours unless EWRC occurs often.
Interesting to see that NHC noted the direction as NW. The last advisory was 14.6N and 74.8W at the 5pm advisory versus 14.5N and 75.0W at the 8pm advisory.
Quoting 1133. TropicTraveler:

I've been off the blog for a while due to severe med issues. What is this gorgeous image. Is this one of the newer satelites?
FYI click the Earth label for the menu!
I love how the NHC cone has Matthew at 75W but bends it back on the other side of that line lol. I'm aware that it isn't updated.
TWC just showed that the trough will totally back away west ... "it's all about the AB high" going forward
Quoting 1136. OracleDeAtlantis:



The persistent parasitic twin is not interested in anything but the food.

Not sure i'd characterize the twin as parasitic - plenty area of ocean heat and atmospheric moisture to go around. It even might be beneficial by contributing to the moisture around the whole system. My concern would be any impacts it would have on land if it persists.
1179. 62901IL
Quoting 1155. apm2084:

Tropical Atlantic is down for me :(


seems to be up, according to isitdownrightnow
Why does the NHC projected track show Matthew going North or NNE at this moment, but the FunkTop radar is showing a distinct NW movement? The NHC told the peeps in Jamaica they were not in for a direct hit, but I guess Matthew did not get the memo.
Quoting 1140. Prouss:



$$
Forecaster Landsea

Forecaster Landsea?
Jajajajaja...that would be Chris Landsea.
Quoting 1145. Envoirment:

Recent microwave pass:



Looks like some sort of EWRC taking place.


The overall structure looks much better - the outer eyewall is still just a spiral band so an EWRC is likely at least 6-12 hours away.
ERC cycles with Matthew not normal for a hurricane either. One of the most persistent pin hole eyes I have ever seen.
1184. hydrus
Little jog to the WNW..

Important to note in the short term:

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

This was moving NW @ 325 earlier today. So for the moment more of a westward component.
1186. Xion
I very rarely comment here, but Hurricane Matthew might have just had a very real, unintended consequence on Colombia's historic peace agreement between the government and FARC rebels.

A referendum was taking place as a final part of the peace deal and I heard that some polling stations in the NE had problems due to the rains and mudslides from Matthew.

The results just came in:

50.25% REJECT PEACE to 49.75% ACCEPT PEACE

In other words, by a razor slim margin, the peace deal was rejected.
I really don't think Matthew's reaching of 75W warrants a major change in track.
1188. SLU
Quoting 1140. Prouss:



$$
Forecaster Landsea

Forecaster Landsea?


Chris Landsea. He's been around for many years.

Quoting 1153. truecajun:

No one ever answered my question about Matthew's large area of convection that follows him.

What can the islands expect from the convection blob? Tons of rain, but what about wind etc. Maybe Cuba will be hit by the eyewall while Haiti gets the blob.


If you have a life or are not lucky enough to log in at the precise moment there were many posts about the Blobsy twin of Matt, it was stated that post storm there will be many investigations of exactly what caused the Blob and why it has been so persistent. Many inquiring minds want to know.
1190. nash36
IF Matthew were to continue NW at 5mph, for the next 12hrs or so, it would be around 77W. I'll just leave that there for a bit.
It does almost look like Matthew is going to stall and start a cyclonic loop north.
TWC using the figure skater analogy for pinhole eye/angular momentum conservation. 👍
1193. nash36
Quoting 1172. WeatherkidJoe2323:

I'm going to say pressures will start falling pretty quick, may get into the 930s in a couple hours, there is nothing that will weaken Matthew for the next 24 hours unless EWRC occurs often.


Which is what we (downstream) want. Unfortunately, it would be even more horrific for the folks getting it first.
In 8pm NHC summary stated going NW...expects Matthew to turn NNW later tonight and Northward tomorrow.nAlso I noticed that they now say Jamacia and Haiti instead of Haiti and Jamacia. I think that they now feel that Jamacia is more at risk
One thing to keep in mind, if Matthew goes west of his forecast points and comes closer to Jamaica than predicted, doesn't mean the entire NHC 5-day cone shifts westward. It could very well be that once it gets into the Bahamas, the forecast track could still hold. I am not saying anyone on the east coast is off the hook for some possible wicked weather, and all should follow the path of Matthew closely via the NHC and local NWS offices.
Quoting 1172. WeatherkidJoe2323:

I'm going to say pressures will start falling pretty quick, may get into the 930s in a couple hours, there is nothing that will weaken Matthew for the next 24 hours unless EWRC occurs often.


Churned up colder ocean water could affect it since it isn't moving.
Quoting 1169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that's his last name


with bling $$
1198. BrandiQ
Ok I thought I read somewhere this morning that it was going to head north tonight... it's still moving NW... is this a problem for US land fall?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
great - so much for the euro/gfs models lol

Quoting 1176. jeffreygtc:

TWC just showed that the trough will totally back away west ... "it's all about the AB high" going forward
Quoting 1182. MaxL1023:



The overall structure looks much better - the outer eyewall is still just a spiral band so an EWRC is likely at least 6-12 hours away.


It looks a lot better by the time it gets to 75W

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/20 16_14L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_06.html
1202. 62901IL
Quoting 1186. Xion:

I very rarely comment here, but Hurricane Matthew might have just had a very real, unintended consequence on Colombia's historic peace agreement between the government and FARC rebels.

A referendum was taking place as a final part of the peace deal and I heard that some polling stations in the NE had problems due to the rains and mudslides from Matthew.

The results just came in:

50.25% REJECT PEACE to 49.75% ACCEPT PEACE

In other words, by a razor slim margin, the peace deal was rejected.



Yeah, ok...
Whatever floats their goat.
anyone else keep getting a message that the security certificate for this site has been revoked?? this is the only site it happens on for me so I don't think it's a virus or malware on my end.
For those claiming that Matthew "looks" like its weakened.. nope.

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MATTHEW IS STILL A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

8:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 2
Location: 14.5°N 75.0°W
Moving: NW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph
Quoting 1168. Grothar:

Right at 75 already




14L/MH/M/C4
MARK
14.60N/75.04W
this blog will crash if it goes wnw


Quoting 1190. nash36:

IF Matthew were to continue NW at 5mph, for the next 12hrs or so, it would be around 77W. I'll just leave that there for a bit.
I've spent the past 5-6 days on this blog. It's been entertaining to see all of the 'expert' opinions... he's going west, no, he's going north... I think you get the idea. I'm 46 years old, and I've been fascinated by hurricane since 1983, when it looked like Hurricane Diana was going to hit the Virginia/Carolina coast. Thankfully it never happened. In today's age, we have computer models... most of them update four time a day. Follow the trend, not just two or three model runs.
Quoting 1183. DeepSeaRising:

ERC cycles with Matthew not normal for a hurricane either. One of the most persistent pin hole eyes I have ever seen.


i think hurricane pat last year did the same thing in the E PAC
Still need some frames to determine if it's a cyclonic loop.
Quoting 1191. WeatherkidJoe2323:

It does almost look like Matthew is going to stall and start a cyclonic loop north.
Keep an eye on this monster. Mid level atmospheric anomalies that are unforeseen could have a huge impact.
Just want an opinion... do you think Mathew will go more east or west of the cone? Just curious what people think
Quoting 1190. nash36:

IF Matthew were to continue NW at 5mph, for the next 12hrs or so, it would be around 77W. I'll just leave that there for a bit.


New cone already shows a SC/NC landfall... I suppose they can't panic the Carolinas *and* FL.
Quoting 1186. Xion:

I very rarely comment here, but Hurricane Matthew might have just had a very real, unintended consequence on Colombia's historic peace agreement between the government and FARC rebels.

A referendum was taking place as a final part of the peace deal and I heard that some polling stations in the NE had problems due to the rains and mudslides from Matthew.

The results just came in:

50.25% REJECT PEACE to 49.75% ACCEPT PEACE

In other words, by a razor slim margin, the peace deal was rejected.


Wow! People often forget about the weather and its impact on behavior. The heavy rain in London might have been a key reason Brexit happened.
Quoting 1156. UKHWatcher:



Not simply a satellite, Only an iterpretation, but it is fascinating. Enjoy! https://earth.nullschool.net/

Thanks. Terrific site.
the more west it gets, yes, it would be a concern. Most models have it going north at this junction...hasn't made the turn yet, but could do so tonight.....we'll see. The blog will crash if it doesn't lol

Quoting 1198. BrandiQ:

Ok I thought I read somewhere this morning that it was going to head north tonight... it's still moving NW... is this a problem for US land fall?
Quoting 1188. SLU:



Chris Landsea. He's been around for many years.




Based on the shirt he's wearing he must have had that photo in the 60s.
No, Bobin. Is the date and/or time on your computer/device correct?
Quoting 1203. BobinTampa:

anyone else keep getting a message that the security certificate for this site has been revoked?? this is the only site it happens on for me so I don't think it's a virus or malware on my end.
1218. Prouss
Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 4 minhace 4 minutos
Sunday evening video update on dangerous Hurricane Matthew:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEIlTgTC9T8
Quoting 1211. connie1976:

Just want an opinion... do you think Mathew will go more east or west of the cone? Just curious what people think

west
Quoting 1211. connie1976:

Just want an opinion... do you think Mathew will go more east or west of the cone? Just curious what people think


West, Def west.
Matthew making another loop. quite an amazing storm
1222. seataka
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-in dex.gif
See prior posts for speculation
Massive convection in the twin. More white than I've ever seen. This is reminiscent of Friday when the RI happened. Matthew looks stalled at the filling station.
Quoting 1147. K8eCane:



LOL I hope that young lady from FL was able to find her cheap Jesus candles at Publix today. She may need em. I actually looked for some when I went out today. Can't hurt.

LOL I did! I have also been noticing the off weather we have had like other bloggers have mentioned. Went to a place on the water last night and seemed like a tropical storm band was coming in.
Quoting 1213. leofarnsworth:


Wow! People often forget about the weather and its impact on behavior. The heavy rain in London might have been a key reason Brexit happened.


I kinda doubt that. The brexit margin was 4 whole points. The margin of this referendum was minuscule and only took a slight nudge from the storm's impacts in the north to push it one way.

Brexit would have happened regardless pf weather.
1226. SLU
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 4h4 hours ago
Atlantic trying to make up for lost time- #98L has some character this afternoon but shear is coming...
Quoting 1219. Icybubba:


west

I think we have to wait until the eye is done with Cuba land interaction.
Quoting 1203. BobinTampa:

anyone else keep getting a message that the security certificate for this site has been revoked?? this is the only site it happens on for me so I don't think it's a virus or malware on my end.
Yes, I get it often...both for this site and for ATT main page
Quoting 1212. redwagon:



New cone already shows a SC/NC landfall... I suppose they can't panic the Carolinas *and* FL.

8PM dosent have cone update..Only 5am/pm and 11am/pm...advisories tho r at 2,5,8,11 am/pm
1230. beell


It's moving east!
(j/k)
Quoting 1203. BobinTampa:

anyone else keep getting a message that the security certificate for this site has been revoked?? this is the only site it happens on for me so I don't think it's a virus or malware on my end.

I happened to me while I was on one of the library computers the other day
Link
Matthew seems to be finding a sweet spot. deepening, wind field expanding, CDO looking better. Trouble ahead somewhere.
1233. seataka
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-in dex.gif
for the old electronics guys watching this storm
1234. BrandiQ
Ok seems my post got lost somewhere... I believe I read somewhere this morning that Matt was going to turn north tonight... it is still moving NW.. how will this effect the forcast?
1235. Loduck
Quoting 1135. Bigwinds:

We just got wacked in Orlando a couple of hours ago by very strong storms from the South. Horizontal rain (40 mph winds) and very tropical feel. Quite out of the ordinary. This makes two days in a row. That squall line going through Tampa is equally odd.
Yea. These storms are more like mid July/August storms that we usually get (but not this year because of the relentless AB high). It has also been quite humid/hot in NEFl-the front that was supposed to have come through apparently didn't make it all the way because it's still as hot as the ninth level of hell here. That **** AB high has been over us for the past five months and evidently has no intention of leaving any time soon!
"LOL I hope that young lady from FL was able to find her cheap Jesus candles at Publix today. She may need em. I actually looked for some when I went out today. Can't hurt."

Quoting 1224. SecretStormNerd:


LOL I did! I have also been noticing the off weather we have had like other bloggers have mentioned. Went to a place on the water last night and seemed like a tropical storm band was coming in.


Doesn't get more south florida unless you offer us colada and then cut someone off making a left out of Publix.
They're just wobbles, I don't think that this would have the slightest effect on the forecast.
Quoting 1234. BrandiQ:

Ok seems my post got lost somewhere... I believe I read somewhere this morning that Matt was going to turn north tonight... it is still moving NW.. how will this effect the forcast?
1238. beell
Maybe some slow weakening/lifting of the A/B ridge. Two days ago, 500 mb heights off the east coast of Florida and south through the Bahamas were all AOA 5,920 meters.

This morning's dropsonde mission (#11) showed some lowering heights followed by additional lowering on the later flight (#14 still airborne). 5 people could look at the graphics below and come to a different conclusion-and that's ok! Basically trying to find the edge of the ridge.


Semi-arbitrary 500 mb heights (meters) in red from mission 11 (01:31Z 10/2).


500 mb heights-mission 14 (23:00Z 10/2).

Some 40-50 meter height falls north of the Greater Antilles over the last day or two. Nothing earth-shattering.
Quoting 1171. ThisIsNotSparta:



But this is 40kt. Unless Matthew Jr. defends against that, it looks like some temporary weakening.

But are the shear maps right? I don't think Matthew cares what the shear is!!
Pretty good storms that left Orlando earlier are rolling through Gulf Coast now...Palm Harbor and Dunedin are rockin' and rollin.
Meanwhile, 9 degrees further West and about 4.5 degrees further South, one of Costa Rica's more active volcanoes has been erupting for more than 2 weeks. This is a night shot from the volcano cam. Fun stuff too!
Quoting 1240. Lobstah999:

Pretty good storms that left Orlando earlier are rolling through Gulf Coast now...Palm Harbor and Dunedin are rockin' and rollin.


We had a great squall that came through Sanford earlier. But last night the storm was incredible, beautiful lightning show that lasted almost 2 hours with booming thunder rolls and almost an inch of rain. The thunder and lightning was audible/visible long after the storm passed. Very electrified atmosphere. Sat in the garage with the cats for hours, just in awe. Mammatus the night before. Enjoying the weather passage into fall.

Mammatus pic: Link
Quoting 1203. BobinTampa:

anyone else keep getting a message that the security certificate for this site has been revoked?? this is the only site it happens on for me so I don't think it's a virus or malware on my end.


Now and then McAfee will say it is a dangerous site do I want to continue. Goes away when I refresh.
Quoting 1239. gulfbreeze:


But are the shear maps right? I don't think Matthew cares what the shear is!!


A lot of that shear is actually caused by Matthew's outflow. There is nothing in the next few days expected to bring anywhere near 40 knots of shear over the system.
...
Quoting 1164. VAbeachhurricanes:

Not quite models


75w at 14.5-14.6n 

models way off now

if matthew doesn't accelerate in the next 6-12 hours then all bets are off.  that will be a large variable allowing the ridging to bridge into the atl seaboard.  i wonder how close to 76w matthew will get before 15n is reached.  today he went 1 degree west, 1/2 degree north.  that certainly isn't the hard 90 degree turn they are predicting and it is allowing the ridging north by northeast of matthew to deepen and bridge.
Quoting 1212. redwagon:



New cone already shows a SC/NC landfall... I suppose they can't panic the Carolinas *and* FL.


Umm. You can't be serious...
test blog lag test 825pm
Quoting 1237. jordan1tylerr:

They're just wobbles, I don't think that this would have the slightest effect on the forecast.



I've been told I'm wrong but I cold swear that the blob in the east is causing that wobble. It looks like it has wobbled back east of 75
....

No 90's in the forecast, go figure..... was 80.1F here today....
1252. Dakster
Quoting 1250. CCSoFLA79:

Marco....


Polo....


Looks like the models are shifting EAST and away from the Florida peninsula... Not that it matters if the initialization spot is off.
check your mail Dakster, since they haven't fixed the flag yet.....
Quoting 1253. CloudyWithAChance:


That's because there's a new blog.

Quoting 1199. WunderAlertBot:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1256. MahFL
Quoting 1211. connie1976:

Just want an opinion... do you think Mathew will go more east or west of the cone? Just curious what people think


It will remain in the cone.
I am amazed at how accurately the NHC called this storm so far in advance. Great job!