WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Matthew Rolls Through Lesser Antilles; Huge Rains for D.C. This Week

By: Bob Henson 10:37 PM GMT on September 28, 2016

Not even classified as a tropical depression early Wednesday morning, Tropical Storm Matthew rolled through the Lesser Antilles as a mid-strength tropical storm on Wednesday afternoon. As of 5 pm EDT, the National Hurricane Center placed Matthew about 65 miles west of St. Lucia, moving west at 18 mph with top sustained winds of 60 mph. Some observers may have done double takes when they saw Matthew debut as a 60-mph tropical storm in its very first advisory (11 am EDT Tuesday). NHC typically relies on Hurricane Hunter data before upgrading a system like Matthew, and we had a gap between flights on Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Hurricane hunter flights are now scheduled every 12 hours for the next couple of days. Moreover, in their first pass through Matthew on Wednesday morning, the Hurricane Hunters did not find a closed circulation, so the storm had 60-mph winds without being a tropical storm with a closed circulation. The last “instant tropical storm” of this magnitude was Tropical Storm Karen in 2013, whose first advisory was also as a 60-mph tropical storm. Update: According to Weather Channel tropical expert Michael Lowry, Karen's initial top winds were reduced to 45 knots (50 mph] in NHC's best-track reanalysis, so the only system aside from Matthew that has debuted as a 60-mph tropical storm was the very unorthodox Hurricane Debbie (1961).

Satellite imagery of Matthew on Wednesday afternoon revealed a very healthy tropical storm, with excellent outflow ventilating the upper reaches of the storm and an expanding area of intense thunderstorms at its core.


Figure 1. Satellite image for Tropical Storm Matthew as of 5:36 pm EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2016.


Figure 2. Radar imagery from weather.com for the Lesser Antilles as of 4:49 pm EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2016.

Heavy rains and gusty squalls were sweeping across the Lesser Antilles as Matthew moved through on Wednesday afternoon, with some of the strongest activity east of Matthew’s center still to reach the islands. Winds at Dominica’s Melville Hall Airport gusted to 53 mph at 10 am EDT Wednesday, and Martinique’s Le Lamentin Airport reported a sustained wind of 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph at 5:00 pm EDT.

Wunderground member java162 posted this report at 1834Z (2:34 pm EDT): “It has been pretty blustery here in Dominica. So far we have had just over 2 in. of rain. The wind is the real issue. Constant gusts between 60 and 90 kph [37 - 56 mph]. What I have been hearing is of a number of trees down throughout the island and quite a few areas are without electricity.”

Outlook for Matthew through the weekend
Long before it poses any possible threat to the United States, Matthew could mean big trouble for parts of the Greater Antilles. Computer models agree that Matthew will continue on a general westerly track for the next couple of days. Because Matthew’s center is a bit further north than earlier expected, the storm may be able to avoid too much interaction with the land mass of South America. By this weekend, a large upper-level low over the Mid-Atlantic (see below) should provide a pathway for Matthew to take a sharp right turn. While quite unusual, such a sharp turn is hardly unprecedented, as we noted yesterday. Tropical expert Brian McNoldy (University of Miami/RSMAS) delves into one powerful analog--Hurricane Hazel (1954)--in a very timely post today at Capital Weather Gang.

Should Matthew take its expected turn to the north, it would have a very hard time avoiding landfall somewhere between Cuba and the Dominican Republic. It’s too soon to pin down the longitude of that northward turn, but models have been gradually converging on a path that could bring Matthew somewhere near the Windward Passage between eastern Cuba and Haiti, perhaps as soon as Sunday. Residents of eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should keep especially close tabs on Matthew over the next several days.


Figure 3. NHC track and intensity forecast for Matthew as of 5:00 pm EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2016.

How quickly will Matthew strengthen?
Adding to the concern for the Caribbean is the potential for Matthew to strengthen quickly. Through Friday, the relative humidity in the lowest few miles of the atmosphere will be only modestly supportive of development (50-60 percent), but wind shear will be very low (5 - 10 knots) and sea-surface temperatures quite high (around 29°C or 84°F). In addition, Matthew will be entering a region with high oceanic heat content, between 50 and 100 kilojoules per square centimeter (see Figure 4 below). Even higher values of oceanic heat content lie further downstream, south of Cuba and Haiti. CSU/CIRA/RAMMB notes: “For tropical cyclones in favorable environmental conditions for intensification (i.e., vertical wind shear less than 15 kt, mid-level relative humidity > 50 %, and warm SSTs [i.e., > 28.5°C]) and with intensities less than 80 knots, values of ocean heat content greater than 50 kJ/cm^2 have been shown to promote greater rates of intensity change.”


Figure 4. Tropical cyclone heat potential, an index of the amount of heat in the upper ocean, for the Caribbean as of September 27, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

The 12Z and 18Z Wednesday runs of the SHIPS statistical model give unusually high odds for rapid intensification of Matthew over the next 24 to 48 hours. Based on the starting-point conditions (50 knots, or 60 mph, at 2:00 pm EDT Wednesday), the 18Z SHIPS run projects the following likelihoods of a rapid increase in Matthew’s peak winds:

70% odds of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours
50% odds of a 35-knot increase in 24 hours
42% odds of a 45-knot increase in 36 hours
44% odds of a 55-knot increase in 48 hours

It should be stressed that these numbers are based on a set of statistical predictors that compare the environmental conditions now present with Matthew to those in play during past tropical storms and hurricanes. (See this PowerPoint for more details on the index.) This index has shown some modest skill in predicting rapid strengthening. Other tools used by SHIPS give Matthew considerably lower odds of rapid intensification. Forecasters at NHC also take into account satellite imagery and the results of dynamical models (such as the GFS, Euro, and UKMET) before issuing official predictions. The NHC forecast issued at 5:00 pm EDT Wednesday makes Matthew a hurricane by Thursday night and a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday. We cannot say with any confidence that Matthew will undergo rapid intensification beyond the official forecast, but the possibility is there.

Long-term outlook for Matthew
There remains huge uncertainty in Matthew’s fate beyond the weekend. A large minority of the members of the European ensemble model run from 12Z Wednesday take Matthew back westward toward the Gulf of Mexico as it is approaching Cuba and Haiti, while members of the 12Z Wednesday GFS ensemble are in unanimous agreement that Matthew will continue northward. We cannot yet discount the possibilities in the Euro ensemble, but assuming that Matthew moves into The Bahamas by early next week--as indicated by the 12Z Wednesday operational runs of the GFS, European, and UKMET models--Matthew’s subsequent path will hinge on the state of the upper-level low parking over the Mid-Atlantic into the weekend, as well as another upper-level trough that will be plowing eastward across the United States next week. The upper-level flow across North America and the North Atlantic will include several blocking features late this week into early next week, and these are notoriously difficult to predict. The most we can say at this point is that Matthew has the potential to make landfall somewhere along the Gulf or Atlantic U.S. coasts by later next week.


Figure 5. Forecasts from the 12Z Wednesday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (left) show a wide variety of potential tracks for Tropical Storm Matthew after it reaches the western Caribbean, while the members of the 12Z GFS model ensemble (right) are much more tightly clustered.


Figure 5. Predicted 3-day rainfall totals from 8:00 pm EDT Wednesday, September 28, 2016, through 8:00 pm EDT Saturday, October 1. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC.

Epic multi-day rains for Mid-Atlantic
Even without the help of a tropical storm, the Mid-Atlantic low will bring a period of extremely heavy rain over the next several days, especially in the Washington, D.C., area. The 3-day precipitation outlook from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center calls for widespread 3” - 6” rains from northern Virginia to southern Pennsylvania, with an 8” - 10” maximum possible close to the District of Columbia (see Figure 5 above). “The D.C. area should prepare for the possibility of the heaviest rain event in at least five years and possibly longer,” noted Jason Samenow (Capital Weather Gang). Given the drought conditions that emerged during the parched summer of 2016, much of this rain will be welcome and beneficial, but at least some areas will get too much, leading to the potential for “severe flooding,” according to the NWS/DC office.

Such heavy rain is very rare for D.C. outside of tropical cyclones. The city’s top 3-day rainfall of 10.34” (June 25-27, 2006, part of a billion-dollar flood event) was associated with slow-moving mid-latitude weather features together with an unclassified tropical low off the North Carolina coast. All but one of the runner-up totals--in 1955, 1928, 1933, 1972, and 2005--were directly associated with hurricanes or tropical storms. Deep moisture will be flowing from the Caribbean into the mid-Atlantic as the rains unfold. This flow will pass over a large section of the Northwest Atlantic that experienced record-warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in August. SSTs continue to run 1-2°C above average throughout the Northwest Atlantic, and these record or near-record values will enhance the flow of water vapor heading into the Mid-Atlantic deluge. Should Matthew move north into this region, it could also benefit from the unusually warm waters, and any possible rain from Matthew in the D.C. area would fall on saturated ground.

We’ll be back with our next update on Matthew by late Thursday morning.

Bob Henson

Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 498. Grothar:



Have a happy one, Keep. Whatever is left of it.
51 just a spring chicken
502. JRRP7
GFS shift a bit to the west
its just another day everyone don't fuss its all good thanks all the same
Am I the only one seeing a turn wnw at 66 hrs continuing at 72...?

Happy Birthday, KOTG!
2010's tropical storm matthew was very fortunate of not getting retired due to causing 126 deaths and 171 million dollars in damage.
You should be more vocal Keeper, Happy Birthday......
Quoting 502. JRRP7:

GFS shift a bit to the west




Velden shear shows an area of "less conductive"





Loop
Quoting 466. flibinite:

If they doing it, they're not cloud seeding... it's a directed energy "weapon" of some kind. I'm telling you to look at the loops, especially the WV one, and see how the clouds don't shear/blow away... they simply disappear, almost instantly, along a quadrant of Matthew (or any storm), with the dissipation often showing an awful lot of straight lines... strange things to see in such swirling, dynamic systems.

Then, generally, the dissipated area is sucked into the circulation as dry air, weakening it, and helping to keep any eye from forming or strengthening as it seems as if it should be. The goal, generally, is to keep a storm weak, and moving west, generally into the Yucatan.

No, they can't kill this much "energy", but hurricane formation is a very delicate process, and they can disrupt it enough to stall it until a storm runs out of water or drifts into an unfavorable environment in a weakened state.

I'm not saying that's what *does* happen, but I keep seeing it again and again, especially in the Western Caribbean, and think I just saw it happening again tonight.

Jo


I don't know what your harrping about. :) Maybe a more trained eye could explain what your seeing. I'd love a good scientific explanation of your point.
Quoting 503. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its just another day everyone don't fuss its all good thanks all the same


Eh, keeps, the people dey love ya big fella.

Embrace it.

Spin some tunes,let's get this place a rockin'...

Anyway, good night. I cannot keep my eyes open any longer, no matter what the outcome of the 00z GFS... lpl
thanks for the greetings everyone
I look at it this way 4 more too go
then I can stop anytime I want after that
that will be the best one of all
GFS showing Matthew nearing or as a Cat 4 heading NW in 84 hours.
lol bf ya it will still be here when you awaken night
And I'd like a good scientific explanation of why the edges of many storms I see just suddenly disappear, DeepSeaRising, and the shear is angled 60-80 degrees in opposition to the angle of the clouds/storms dissipating. I'd be more than willing to accept a learned explanation of the physics, as my "deduction" is a theory, based on dozens of events I've seen over the last 8 years on storms that never seem to get as strong, or develop as quickly as most of the posters here, and even the NHC, often think that they should.

Are the Hurricane Hunters still out there?

Jo
Quoting 494. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no way lol



Recon doing one more run to the West then the center it seems which should confirm the dive. 4 in a row would be a trend.
GFS run so far showing higher heights over the SE US which accounts for the later turn

Sheared Convection Enhancement



AF303 Mission #03 into MATTHEW
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 03:56 UTC Sep 29, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 15.10°N 64.20°W
Bearing: 270° at 232 kt
Altitude: 1578 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 58 kt at 76°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1011.1 mb

Aprox 5:50z to 8:30 should provide the next microwave passes.

2016/09/29 05:45 GCOM-W1 58
2016/09/29 05:49 AQUA 58
2016/09/29 05:49 NPP 268
2016/09/29 06:41 N19 606
2016/09/29 07:21 ISS 821
2016/09/29 08:30 F16 377

What are we getting from the ISS pass?
GFS just over the eastern tip of Jamaica now. Significant shift to the left.
Happy birthday keep. It's still your birthday here. :)
Quoting 503. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its just another day everyone don't fuss its all good thanks all the same


Happy Birthday Keeper, have a good one :)
I could be off with the windshear statement and if the convective pattern can maintain, it should pull down stronger winds and lower the pressures for a new COC to reform, so don't take my word for it, we'll know what is really going on when the sun rises and we get the first visible shots.

Happy Happy Birthday KOTG! Hope you had a great day with many returns and best wishes to you. :)
Western bobble on the GFS?
Heading SE for another center fix.
Long flight. Props to those guys!
Quoting 522. kmanislander:

GFS just over the eastern tip of Jamaica now. Significant shift to the left.

Yeah. Trending the wrong way for Jamaica.
Quoting 522. kmanislander:

GFS just over the eastern tip of Jamaica now. Significant shift to the left.


Quoting 525. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I could be off with the windshear statement and if the convective pattern can maintain, it should pull down stronger winds and lower the pressures for a new COC to reform, so don't take my word for it, we'll know what is really going on when the sun rises and we get the first visible shots.

Happy Happy Birthday KOTG! Hope you had a great day with many returns and best wishes to you. :)

The ULAC looked slightly displaced as well.
Quoting 521. StormJunkie:

Aprox 5:50z to 8:30 should provide the next microwave passes.

2016/09/29 05:45 GCOM-W1 58
2016/09/29 05:49 AQUA 58
2016/09/29 05:49 NPP 268
2016/09/29 06:41 N19 606
2016/09/29 07:21 ISS 821
2016/09/29 08:30 F16 377

What are we getting from the ISS pass?


Used to be RapidScat, but it stopped working in August.
GFS forecasting a far more realistic recurvature compared to that sharp L it's was preciously calling for.
533. 7544
Quoting 526. win1gamegiantsplease:

Western bobble on the GFS?


yep but will shoot north next frame
534. ackee
Wow so the GFS move storm over eastern part of Jamaica that huge shift all these oz model have full recon info be very interesting to see what the Euro cmc ukmet does later on
The bursting cloud pattern is currently exhibiting only limited banding features, which suggests that rapid intensification is not imminent. Upper air data also shows a trough aloft near Haiti, with westerly winds noted from about 300 to 100 mb on the sounding there. This suggests that Matthew should only gradually intensify until nearing 75W. A major hurricane in Jamaica or Cuba is certainly possible, though.
Quoting 531. nrtiwlnvragn:



Used to be RapidScat, but it stopped working in August.


:-( But there are people there! can't they just go out and fix it up good as new?

Thanks nrti, glad you were still up to answer that!
529. Patrap

Funny :-)
Quoting 517. kmanislander:




Recon doing one more run to the West then the center it seems which should confirm the dive. 4 in a row would be a trend.
GFS run so far showing higher heights over the SE US which accounts for the later turn


may swing back have to see several runs in a row showing for change up in things and it could very well be the case
the GFS has mat over the Bahamas the same area that JQ hit last year
Quoting 536. StormJunkie:



:-( But there are people there! can't they just go out and fix it up good as new?

Thanks nrti, glad you were still up to answer that!


Parts may be an issue and maybe none of them are Electronic Techs.


Thu 2016_08_25 Z13:00 status: RAPIDSCAT IS DEACTIVATED due to a power system anomaly. The investigation is currently ongoing.

Link
Quoting 536. StormJunkie:



:-( But there are people there! can't they just go out and fix it up good as new?

Thanks nrti, glad you were still up to answer that!


ASCAT is still functioning... Performs the same mission and is readily available.
Link
Quoting 538. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

may swing back have to see several runs in a row showing for change up in things and it could very well be the case


Heading SE for the 4th pass. Not sure how long they will stay out. This mission has been ongoing for quite some time.
Quoting 541. nrtiwlnvragn:



Parts may be an issue and maybe none of them are Electronic Techs.


Thu 2016_08_25 Z13:00 status: RAPIDSCAT IS DEACTIVATED due to a power system anomaly. The investigation is currently ongoing.

Link


Funny you should mention, I am a controls/electronics tech. How soon can you get me up there? With spare parts of course.
Quoting 535. KoritheMan:

The bursting cloud pattern is currently exhibiting only limited banding features, which suggests that rapid intensification is not imminent. Upper air data also shows a trough aloft near Haiti, with westerly winds noted from about 300 to 100 mb on the sounding there. This suggests that Matthew should only gradually intensify until nearing 75W. A major hurricane in Jamaica or Cuba is certainly possible, though.
could end up having issues unknown who knows these things sometimes seem to have a mind of their own and make us with minds look silly its a evil game weather


🌙🎑🌊🌉🌎
Quoting 530. sporteguy03:


The ULAC looked slightly displaced as well.
I noticed it's on the north coast of Venezuela with the TUTT extending down from the Mona Passage to Panama. Hence, the drier air in the upper levels of the atmosphere. However, some have noted that TUTT backing away or lifting north out of the Caribbean in response to the trough approaching the southeast and the subtropical ridge building in and thus everything moving in tandem.

548. 7544
this run about 20 miles west again with 9 days left and keeps shifting west on each run could get very close the se fl area first imo stay tuned eruo up next
i dont like the look at that

Quoting 543. kmanislander:



Heading SE for the 4th pass. Not sure how long they will stay out. This mission has been ongoing for quite some time.
lots of info its a good thing I hate when problems and they have too turn around
Quoting 526. win1gamegiantsplease:

Western bobble on the GFS?


its picking up on the front stalling out
I guess GFS has the storm growing in size as it goes poleward, but it seems like it might be stronger off the Carolina coast than near Jamaica/Cuba? Not sure about that, even if it follows the GS
SFMR NW Quad, 14.500N 64.167W

50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph)
00Z stronger High buildiing and weaker Low over mid west.

00Z

18Z
btw, I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of another Caribbean tropical cyclone in the next three weeks. Not only does climatology favor it, the modeled synoptic pattern beyond 10 days does as well. The global models are suggesting a significant pattern change (and actually have been for awhile now) around October 10, with a trough aloft finally replacing the persistent subtropical ridge over the East. This will cause heights to rise and upper-level easterlies to keep wind shear low there. Low-level convergence can also occur on the western edge of the ridge in these cases, leading to updrafts and convection, which can obviously bloom into tropical cyclones under a favorable shear pattern.

I think we're good for about 3 more storms.

AF303 Mission #03 into MATTHEW
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 04:16 UTC Sep 29, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 14.50°N 64.17°W
Bearing: 135° at 167 kt
Altitude: 1554 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 59 kt at 58°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1007.7 mb



557. FOREX
That's maybe the 20th GFS run in a row showing the turn near or over eastern Cuba and just off the eastern Seaboard.Anywhere from the Chesapeake Bay to NYC to New England should be concerned right now.The GFS being the "Garbage" model the last several years being so consistent should be taken as the most accurate this time I believe.
what a closed call a near miss but it looks like the outer banks of NC could be hit hard has it moves away
1003mb all the way out at 14.083N 63.850W
Quoting 556. Patrap:


AF303 Mission #03 into MATTHEW
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 04:16 UTC Sep 29, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 14.50°N 64.17°W
Bearing: 135° at 167 kt
Altitude: 1554 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 59 kt at 58°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1007.7 mb






Aircraft trajectory suggests it is heading for a center fix farther to the WSW of the previous fix.
Quoting 557. FOREX:

That's maybe the 20th GFS run in a row showing the turn near or over eastern Cuba and just off the eastern Seaboard.Anywhere from the Chesapeake Bay to NYC to New England should be concerned right now.The GFS being the "Garbage" model the last several years being so consistent should be taken as the most accurate this time I believe.


A lot of claims calling so and so model garbage are anecdotal at best. Without actual scientific verification of how well a particular model has performed relative to others, you really can't make a statement like that that ISN'T based on assumption. I try to be careful when I say stuff like that.
after the near miss on NC it starts the OTS out too sea
Quoting 560. kmanislander:



Aircraft trajectory suggests it is heading for a center fix farther to the WSW of the previous fix.


Copy dat, counselor....



The loop shows the motion well...




564. ackee
The wsw moment by Matthew was this forecast so soon ? Base on recon it his moving wsw
Quoting 522. kmanislander:

GFS just over the eastern tip of Jamaica now. Significant shift to the left.


and expect the shift W to continue

00Z UKMET shifted east by 3-4 degrees

12Z

1200UTC 02.10.2016 96 13.6N 74.5W 987 52
0000UTC 03.10.2016 108 15.2N 75.3W 979 62
1200UTC 03.10.2016 120 17.2N 75.3W 970 68
0000UTC 04.10.2016 132 19.0N 75.4W 970 63
1200UTC 04.10.2016 144 20.6N 75.3W 982 59



00Z

1200UTC 02.10.2016 84 14.3N 71.9W 980 65
0000UTC 03.10.2016 96 15.5N 72.2W 975 64
1200UTC 03.10.2016 108 16.8N 71.9W 970 68
0000UTC 04.10.2016 120 18.7N 72.0W 992 41
1200UTC 04.10.2016 132 20.0N 71.9W 998 46
0000UTC 05.10.2016 144 20.6N 71.5W 991 48



🌎🌊🌉🌙🎑
What I am basically getting from the GFS is that Mathew is going to wait around off shore no matter how long it takes the high to the N to slide off to the E.
Happy birthday KOTF. You have a blessed and wonderful day.
Quoting 566. nrtiwlnvragn:

00Z UKMET shifted east by 3-4 degrees

12Z

1200UTC 02.10.2016 96 13.6N 74.5W 987 52
0000UTC 03.10.2016 108 15.2N 75.3W 979 62
1200UTC 03.10.2016 120 17.2N 75.3W 970 68
0000UTC 04.10.2016 132 19.0N 75.4W 970 63
1200UTC 04.10.2016 144 20.6N 75.3W 982 59



00Z

1200UTC 02.10.2016 84 14.3N 71.9W 980 65
0000UTC 03.10.2016 96 15.5N 72.2W 975 64
1200UTC 03.10.2016 108 16.8N 71.9W 970 68
0000UTC 04.10.2016 120 18.7N 72.0W 992 41
1200UTC 04.10.2016 132 20.0N 71.9W 998 46
0000UTC 05.10.2016 144 20.6N 71.5W 991 48




Don't tell anyone ;)
I'm going to just leave this right here.

Quoting 564. ackee:

The wsw moment by Matthew was this forecast so soon ? Base on recon it his moving wsw


🍺

1001.5 mb
(~ 29.58 inHg)
Quoting 564. ackee:

The wsw moment by Matthew was this forecast so soon ? Base on recon it his moving wsw


hmm if this continues and continues for a longer period this may change some things with its future
Quoting 574. thetwilightzone:

1001.5 mb
(~ 29.58 inHg)


Still deepening all in spite of whatever is hindering.
Quoting 574. thetwilightzone:

1001.5 mb
(~ 29.58 inHg)


Quoting 572. Gearsts:




Back to first sonde position.
579. FOREX
Quoting 561. KoritheMan:



A lot of claims calling so and so model garbage are anecdotal at best. Without actual scientific verification of well a particular model has performed relative to others, you really can't make a statement like that that ISN'T based on assumption. I try to be careful when I say stuff like that.
I actually never said it was a garbage model, just was repeating what many in the blog refer to it as. Point take though Kori, thanks.
Looks like a wobble, IMO.

Wind shift looks to be back up at 13.9
Quoting 568. StormJunkie:

What I am basically getting from the GFS is that Mathew is going to wait around off shore no matter how long it takes the high to the N to slide off to the E.

Stormjunkie looking at the heights Matthew literally bumps up against higher pressure so instead of seeking lower pressure it goes into higher pressure at 186 hours? Um, ok.
Quoting 578. kmanislander:



Back to first sonde position.


Still showing center on the western most edge of the convection. Interesting. Sure is a nice looking ball of convection.



latest fix is slightly N than previous fix

wobbles
Night All. Trusty map has never guided wrong.

@ 571 SJ- yes, leave it right there, duct tape the hell out of it, don't let it go anywhere
Quoting 582. StormJunkie:



Still showing center on the western most edge of the convection. Interesting. Sure is a nice looking ball of convection.






Yeah. Shear at work. Time to turn in.

See you all in the morning.
Gulf hurricane season is over.
Quoting 582. StormJunkie:



Still showing center on the western most edge of the convection. Interesting. Sure is a nice looking ball of convection.




Wow! SJ getting that buzzsaw look.
So what I'm hearing is Matthew is Cape Verde garbage and will never strengthen. So this is all a joke.
Quoting 585. aquak9:

@ 571 SJ- yes, leave it right there, duct tape the hell out of it, don't let it go anywhere


lol. Since it's all eggshelly around here, I wanted to make sure everyone's opinion felt validated. Gold medals and Cheerwine for all!

Good to see ya Aqua. Hope y'all are well.
Quoting 582. StormJunkie:



Still showing center on the western most edge of the convection. Interesting. Sure is a nice looking ball of convection.






Dvorak constraints suggest that this "ball" is misleading. I watched Hermine's evolution religiously while I was riding Greyhound to Tallahassee, and it was exhibiting the same pattern for awhile. Never strengthened.
Quoting 589. HurricaneAndre:

So what I'm hearing is Matthew is Cape Verde garbage and will never strengthen. So this is all a joke.

With wind gusts to Hurricane force? I mean come man don't be so silly in your comments.
Quoting 588. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wow! SJ getting that buzzsaw look.


That's the point, it looks much more impressive than it really is. Still a strengthening system, but not exactly as impressive as it appears on IR.
Quoting 578. kmanislander:



Back to first sonde position.


more or less
Quoting 591. KoritheMan:



Dvorak constraints suggest that this "ball" is misleading. I watched Hermine's evolution religiously while I was riding Greyhound to Tallahassee, and it was exhibiting the same pattern for awhile. Never strengthened.

Yeah, it's going to have to put some structure together for some real strengthening. The convection is nice and helps with surface pressure falls, but Matthew is still rather disorganized at the moment.

The large area of 64kt plus flight level winds is what is really impressive. Some shear but it is already almost sub 1000mb
It's going to taunt us and stay half in and half out of this image until it hits 75W and makes that hard turn to the N.

I'm really sorry guys, I'm just hurts right now. Please forgive me.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 4:54Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 4:30:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1356'N 6339'W (13.9333N 63.65W)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 50kts (~ 57.5mph)
Quoting 595. 1900hurricane:


Yeah, it's going to have to put some structure together for some real strengthening. The convection is nice and helps with surface pressure falls, but Matthew is still rather disorganized at the moment.




That's about 4hrs old, but I'm not saying your point isn't valid. Just saying there has been a big increase in convection the past 4 hrs, and either it is getting sheared off the center, or the center is outrunning it. Per recon data at least. Because that is one impressive looking CDO and if I didn't have recon data, I would say it is a rapidly intensifying system.
Quoting 595. 1900hurricane:


Yeah, it's going to have to put some structure together for some real strengthening. The convection is nice and helps with surface pressure falls, but Matthew is still rather disorganized at the moment.




Which also suggests that the UKMET is likely too far east. I'm about to release my blog in a second, and my track isn't going to be much different from what it was yesterday; over Jamaica and toward eastern Cuba. A good forecaster doesn't flip every time the models flip. What you REALLY want is for the models to come around to YOUR solution. That's what a good forecaster is.
Quoting 598. StormJunkie:

It's going to taunt us and stay half in and half out of this image until it hits 75W and makes that hard turn to the N.




Yes wish MSFC would have implemented the expanded GOES East range, it has been in Rapid Scan since yesterday, but I don't know of a website that shows it.
Quoting 603. nrtiwlnvragn:



Yes wish MSFC would have implemented the expanded GOES East range, it has been in Rapid Scan since yesterday, but I don't know of a website that shows it.


Well that's even more depressing to know they could, but they aren't. lol
Average of 80mph flight level.

Those won't mix down till the storm is stacked however. 60mph it is.
Quoting 602. KoritheMan:



Which also suggests that the UKMET is likely too far east. I'm about to release my blog in a second, and my track isn't going to be much different from what it was yesterday; over Jamaica and toward eastern Cuba. A good forecaster doesn't flip every time the models flip. What you REALLY want is for the models to come around to YOUR solution. That's what a good forecaster is.

Your forecast philosophy sound about the same as mine. I'm liking Jamaica and then Eastern Cuba by tau 120-132. That's a little west of NHC, but not by much. I may end up giving the western side of the guidance envelope a little too much credit, but I am wary of some of the EPS and GEPS member solutions, especially considering some of their consistency.
Quoting 601. StormJunkie:



That's about 4hrs old, but I'm not saying your point isn't valid. Just saying there has been a big increase in convection the past 4 hrs, and either it is getting sheared off the center, or the center is outrunning it. Per recon data at least. Because that is one impressive looking CDO and if I didn't have recon data, I would say it is a rapidly intensifying system.


Why? Tropical cyclones intensify through the convection exhibiting a banded pattern into a well-defined center; that's what positive vorticity advection/cyclonic flow DOES. Deep convection without banding may generate some local pressure falls, but it is not a sign of a healthy, intensifying system.
Very cold cloud tops near the center.

Quoting 606. 1900hurricane:


Your forecast philosophy sound about the same as mine. I'm liking Jamaica and then Eastern Cuba by tau 120-132. That's a little west of NHC, but not by much. I may end up giving the western side of the guidance envelope a little too much credit, but I am wary of some of the EPS and GEPS member solutions, especially considering some of their consistency.


Not to mention that synoptically, I still don't think such a big trough over the Gulf makes sense. If we're gonna get a piece of vort detach from the continental cutoff low, it'll be more in line with what the ECMWF shows; farther southwest, and quicker to decay.
Quoting 601. StormJunkie:



That's about 4hrs old, but I'm not saying your point isn't valid. Just saying there has been a big increase in convection the past 4 hrs, and either it is getting sheared off the center, or the center is outrunning it. Per recon data at least. Because that is one impressive looking CDO and if I didn't have recon data, I would say it is a rapidly intensifying system.

Yeah, 0145Z is about 3.5 hours ago, but nothing has indicated to me that the structure has changed that much in the time since. As far as why it's happening, I'd actually guess that it is some combination of both.
Interested what I wake up to tomorrow as far as Matthew's progression to becoming a hurricane. Strong flight level winds occurring north and east but still not the best defined at the center. Good night.

Quoting 572. Gearsts:




It's a star sign (cool song by Teenage Fanclub, who toured with Nirvana).
The few squalls that moved through this afternoon and tonight brought high wind gusts. Some officially reached 100km/h. No big amounts of rain though due to the fast motion of the clouds.

Good night.
Quoting 609. KoritheMan:



Not to mention that synoptically, I still don't think such a big trough over the Gulf makes sense. If we're gonna get a piece of vort detach from the continental cutoff low, it'll be more in line with what the ECMWF shows; farther southwest, and quicker to decay.

Not to mention that a slower turn to the north similar to the 12Z ECMWF solution could give a weak trough split a little more time to move away before Matthew has the chance to interact with it as much. That feature is certainly helping to slingshot Matthew north in the GFS solutions.
Quoting 607. KoritheMan:



Why? Tropical cyclones intensify through the convection exhibiting a banded pattern into a well-defined center; that's what positive vorticity advection/cyclonic flow DOES. Deep convection without banding may generate some local pressure falls, but it is not a sign of a healthy, intensifying system.


My point was, that the CDO makes this system look like it should be on it's way to clearing an eye right in the center of the convection...but that isn't the case per recon data. The center is on the western most edge of the convection. AKA, the convection is very lopsided from the storm center.
I cant wait for the NOAA9 recon mission sampling the air around the area I hole this will help to make the forecast much better
According to this scale, cloud tops have gone over 72,000 feet. Very cold cloud tops. There must be some impressive rainfall rates on Martinique and Dominica with some of the stronger rain bands wrapping around the circulation.



Quoting 616. wunderkidcayman:

I cant wait for the NOAA9 recon mission sampling the air around the area I hole this will help to make the forecast much better


I think the GFDL has this one nailed. Like I said earlier, it was the gold standard model back in '05.

Anyway, I'm out for the night. We shall learn more tomorrow.
Quoting 571. StormJunkie:

I'm going to just leave this right here.




Because that's where the run ends? Seems you weren't left with too many options. :p
HWRF headed for the Haiti at 87hrs

I find the lack of banding concerning. These fake CDO type presentations love to collapse by morning. The trades and shear argue that this will remain displaced, but we'll see what this looks like in the morning for now.
Just going to throw this out there...

History has proven that the waters South of Puerto Rico are able to sustain Rapid Inseification.

Hurricane Dean
Hurricane Allen
Hurricane David
Hurricane Ivan

Now certainly, the atmospheric conditions play a larger role than the location alone, but thought it was worth mentioning. Also, coincidentally, all male storm names?

EDIT: I wonder if being sandwiched between the mountains of Hispanola and Venezuela help with spin, similar to the Bay of Campeche?
Quoting 619. GatorWX:



Because that's where the run ends? Seems you weren't left with too many options. :p


lol Gator, you missed out on the morning discussion or that would make a little more sense.
Quoting 615. StormJunkie:



My point was, that the CDO makes this system look like it should be on it's way to clearing an eye right in the center of the convection...but that isn't the case per recon data. The center is on the western most edge of the convection. AKA, the convection is very lopsided from the storm center.


It's still somewhat decoupled. @~500mb, it's still dragging to the east. Once it slows....
Quoting 612. CaribBoy:

The few squalls that moved through this afternoon and tonight brought high wind gusts. Some officially reached 100km/h. No big amounts of rain though due to the fast motion of the clouds.

Good night.


A post where you aren't complaining. I'm screencapping this.
Uh-huh, you see, you see??? See what that is right there in the upper left? Didn't I tell you the GFDL was the best model ever. Not even sure why they run those other junk models.

00z GFDL at 126hrs.

Quoting 622. HighOnHurricanes:

Just going to throw this out there...

History has proven that the waters South of Puerto Rico are able to sustain Rapid Inseification.

Hurricane Dean
Hurricane Allen
Hurricane David
Hurricane Ivan

Now certainly, the atmospheric conditions play a larger role than the location alone, but thought it was worth mentioning. Also, coincidentally, all male storm names?


All those storms were well-developed hurricanes by the time they reached the eastern Caribbean Sea, and that's why they intensified. It's pretty easy for a monstrous hurricane to create its own environment and thwart the shear. That's what they did.
Quoting 623. StormJunkie:



lol Gator, you missed out on the morning discussion or that would make a little more sense.


I'm always here, which discussion are we referring to? GFDL, w?
Quoting 626. StormJunkie:

Uh-huh, you see, you see??? See what that is right there in the upper left? Didn't I tell you the GFDL was the best model ever. Not even sure why they run those other junk models.

00z GFDL at 126hrs.




kek
Quoting 628. GatorWX:



I'm always here, which discussion are we referring to? GFDL, w?


I got banned earlier, for the first time ever mind you, for pointing out that not every storm is headed towards 19N 81W.
631. ackee
Quoting 613. KoritheMan:

Blog update! nice post
Keeping a close eye on those EURO ensembles. After Matthew turns north, anything can happen. If this gets into the gulf, In terms of size, could this be as big as Rita or Ike?
Quoting 630. StormJunkie:



I got banned earlier, for the first time ever mind you, for pointing out that not every storm is headed towards 19N 81W.


How dare you!?
Quoting 627. KoritheMan:



All those storms were well-developed hurricanes by the time they reached the eastern Caribbean Sea, and that's why they intensified. It's pretty easy for a monstrous hurricane to create its own environment and thwart the shear. That's what they did.


Probably a fair point. It was just something I had noticed when looking at tracks of major hurricanes that had passed through the SE Caribbean.

How about this for an analog to Matthew, haven't seen it mentioned:

Cleo
Let's try to focus on 26.9N, 82.3W, eh?
Quoting 630. StormJunkie:



I got banned earlier, for the first time ever mind you, for pointing out that not every storm is headed towards 19N 81W.


This one is, though. I'm in Louisiana and I want another Lili. I'm right, you'll see!
Quoting 634. GatorWX:



How dare you!?


I know right? lol
Quoting 632. Stormchaser121:

Keeping a close eye on those EURO ensembles. After Matthew turns north, anything can happen. If this gets into the gulf, I'm terms of size, could this be as big as Rita or Ike?


GFDL and EPS are likely western outliers, but their solutions could be accomplished through the storm sprawling until 75W.
Quoting 637. KoritheMan:



This one is, though. I'm in Louisiana and I want another Lili. I'm right, you'll see!


And along with Cariboy, at least you are honest about it. BTW, if you want a storm to head towards LA, you need to conjure up 'ol ST. Matter of fact, that storm is the one that made the GFDL the gold standard. It called the rapid intensification across Fl, and the model shift to the W.
If you follow this animation of the 500 mb. absolute vorticity by the latest GFS run, you'll see an impulse swing down from Texas and move through the northern Gulf Coast. Perhaps the remnant energy associated with Tropical Depression Rosalyn.

Quoting 625. KoritheMan:



A post where you aren't complaining. I'm screencapping this.


No more complaints for now. I wasted a lot of my energy following all these invests and pre Matthew. I'm tired and taking break :)
Quoting 640. StormJunkie:



And along with Cariboy, at least you are honest about it. BTW, if you want a storm to head towards LA, you need to conjure up 'ol ST. Matter of fact, that storm is the one that made the GFDL the gold standard. It called the rapid intensification across Fl, and the model shift to the W.


lol, I was being sarcastic. I mean I WOULD like another Lili, but I know it's not happening. I was making fun of the people who actually think there is a legitimate shot of it happening based on current meteorology.
Quoting 640. StormJunkie:



And along with Cariboy, at least you are honest about it. BTW, if you want a storm to head towards LA, you need to conjure up 'ol ST. Matter of fact, that storm is the one that made the GFDL the gold standard. It called the rapid intensification across Fl, and the model shift to the W.


Here we go.... lol
I compiled this chart of the initial operational advisory intensities for each of the 249 Atlantic named storms of the 21st century, including Matthew. Three things to note: 1) this is solely based on the operational advisories, not the official Tropical Cyclone Reports. 2) 55 mph is never used as an intensity by the NHC because it does not convert from the 5kt intervals that are used by the government. 3) the 2001 season alone was responsible for three of the eight 60 mph occurrences, one of the two 65 mph occurrence, and the only 75 mph occurrence. Not sure what was going on that year . . .

Edit: I can't get the image to appear, so here's the link https://s12.postimg.org/xfnh41txp/hurricaneintens ities.png
646. ackee
Oz run each model tell a different tale depite recon data

Gfs shift further west closer to Jamaica closer longer term to the Us east coast

Cmc Haiti track

Ukmet off north over hispanola

Hwrf pretty much over Haiti eastern cuba

GFDL south of Jamaica into the western carribbean

Over to the Euro now
Quoting 641. GTstormChaserCaleb:

If you follow this animation of the 500 mb. absolute vorticity by the latest GFS run, you'll see an impulse swing down from Texas and move through the northern Gulf Coast. Perhaps the remnant energy associated with Tropical Depression Rosalyn.




Interesting take. Never considered that possibility. The mid-level center would definitely move along with the fast mid- to upper-level westerly flow while the low-level trough lags behind in the Pacific. I can see it reaching the Gulf in 3 to 4 days for sure.
SJ,

Shhhhh,

Ye coveted one is running..

Quoting 644. GatorWX:



Here we go.... lol


You happen to catch the retelling of the "Pumping the ridge" story earlier this evening? If not then you have to check post 651 here. Funny how urban legends linger on. Not sure how many are aware ST was the first I remember to coin "CAT 6"
Quoting 645. HurrikanEB:

I compiled this chart of the initial operational advisory intensities for each of the 249 Atlantic named storms of the 21st century. Three things to note: 1) this is solely based on the operational advisories, not the official Tropical Cyclone Reports. 2) 55 mph is never used as an intensity by the NHC because it does not convert from the 5kt intervals that are used by the government. 3) the 2001 season alone was responsible for three of the eight 60 mph occurrences, one of the two 65 mph occurrence, and the only 75 mph occurrence. Not sure what was going on that year . . .




2001 was a weird year. There was more hurricane activity and ACE in November than there was in August, including three hurricanes (Michelle, Noel, and Olga).
Quoting 648. GatorWX:

SJ,

Shhhhh,

Ye coveted one is running..




Damn it...now I guess I have to wait up for that.
Guessing that's Jamaica on the right?

Quoting 626. StormJunkie:

Uh-huh, you see, you see??? See what that is right there in the upper left? Didn't I tell you the GFDL was the best model ever. Not even sure why they run those other junk models.

00z GFDL at 126hrs.


Quoting 650. KoritheMan:



2001 was a weird year. There was more hurricane activity and ACE in November than there was in August, including three hurricanes (Michelle, Noel, and Olga).

Can verify.

Good bit stronger through 24hrs. Hair further NE.



Quoting 652. swflurker:

Guessing that's Jamaica on the right?




That would be correct.
Quoting 649. StormJunkie:



You happen to catch the retelling of the "Pumping the ridge" story earlier this evening? If not then you have to check post 651 here. Funny how urban legends linger on. Not sure how many are aware ST was the first I remember to coin "CAT 6"


I do not remember him coining that, but I'll take your word. He,ugh,yeah. He called Katrina. I'd say there's a slight bit of logic in pumping the ridge, but when larger, more dynamical weather patterns are in place, no.

I miss the old characters! Things were much different. I miss, too, not being able to post pics. Just words. Good times.
Quoting 653. 1900hurricane:


Can verify.




I've seen your nerdiness in person. You knowing this doesn't surprise me, lol.
Quoting 656. GatorWX:



I do not remember him coining that, but I'll take your word. He,ugh,yeah. He called Katrina. I'd say there's a slight bit of logic in pumping the ridge, but when larger, more dynamical weather patterns are in place, no.

I miss the old characters! Things were much different. I miss, too, not being able to post pics. Just words. Good times.


It was all links wasn't it? Can't say I remembered that until you brought it up. I miss the old bunch as well, as chaotic as it was. Lefty was one of those characters that ranked up there with the best. He just dropped off the face of the earth one day. Still have a number in my phone that is supposed to be him, but pretty sure it's not his number anymore.
Regarding: The last "instant tropical storm" of this magnitude was Tropical Storm Karen in 2013, whose first advisory was also as a 60-mph tropical storm. Update: According to Weather Channel tropical expert Michael Lowry, Karen's initial top winds were reduced to 45 knots (50 mph] in NHC's best-track reanalysis, so the only system aside from Matthew that has debuted as a 60-mph tropical storm was the very unorthodox Hurricane Debbie (1961).

According to the Tropical Cyclone Reports,
Karen in 2001 transitioned from an extra-tropical cyclone to a subtropical cyclone while winds were 60 knots, and then to a tropical cyclone at the same intensity. Operationally the storm was initiated at 55 knots.
Olga 2001 did the same thing as Karen 2001, but at 50 knots. It was operationally recognized at 50 knots.
Delta 2005 transitioned from extratropical to subtropical at 45 knots, and to tropical at 50 knots. Operationally recognized at 50 knots.
Laura 2008 became subtropical then tropical while at 50 knots. Operationally recognized at 50 knots.

Noel 2001 won for operational surprises, when advisories were initiated on it as a 75 mph hurricane, but was later recognized as having begun as a 45 knot subtropical storm.
as much as I want this thing to go west, matthew will have little impact post Cuba. safe turn north and then north-east hundereds of miles off the east coast.
Matthew looks like he's outrunning his middle. Center looks partially exposed on satellite imagery.
Quoting 661. Drakoen:

Matthew looks like he's outrunning his middle. Center looks partially exposed on satellite imagery.


Recon would concur with that scenario.
Quoting 661. Drakoen:

Matthew looks like he's outrunning his middle. Center looks partially exposed on satellite imagery.

there's more than one center
Quoting 663. Walshy:


there's more than one center


Like...low level and mid level???
Quoting 657. KoritheMan:



I've seen your nerdiness in person. You knowing this doesn't surprise me, lol.

Heh, I'm actually not done with getting all the data for the active era until now (still need to do 1997, 2000, 2002, 2006, and 2011), but I've already got a better picture of what is typical in the Atlantic for the time period and what the quirks are of each individual year. Having a working knowledge of climatology has actually helped me become a better forecaster.

As a side note, I've done even more work in the Western Pacific with the same type of stuff (done the entire post-recon era, plus a few others so far). I actually took my WPac template and recycled it for use in the Atlantic, which is why the sheet is tooled for such high intensities.
Still big differences between the ECMWF and GFS at only 72 hours out.
Quoting 658. StormJunkie:



It was all links wasn't it? Can't say I remembered that until you brought it up. I miss the old bunch as well, as chaotic as it was. Lefty was one of those characters that ranked up there with the best. He just dropped off the face of the earth one day. Still have a number in my phone that is supposed to be him, but pretty sure it's not his number anymore.


Wasn't it Lefty420? Lol. StormW too. Js. Maybe a bit off, but knew his stuff. Also, had a sweet blue Mustang. That, I'm being sarcastic about.
Quoting 658. StormJunkie:



It was all links wasn't it? Can't say I remembered that until you brought it up. I miss the old bunch as well, as chaotic as it was. Lefty was one of those characters that ranked up there with the best. He just dropped off the face of the earth one day. Still have a number in my phone that is supposed to be him, but pretty sure it's not his number anymore.

And yes, links a plenty, but know what? It was a hell of a lot faster!

You should call him, or try, out of the blue.
0z euro is north-east turning in the Caribbean, safer run for Jamaica with it passing east more likely.steering says eastern bahamas watch out then out to sea but Bermuda should watch it
Quoting 667. GatorWX:



Wasn't it Lefty420? Lol. StormW too. Js. Maybe a bit off, but knew his stuff. Also, had a sweet blue Mustang. That, I'm being sarcastic about.


Yep...Lefty420, or Leftty420, or Leftyy420...he had to rename a few times due to bans. lol. Not sure when 'ol Footy came to the blogs. Pretty sure it was after the '04-06 reign of terror.
See! See! How they do that!!! HAARP!!! See!

Quoting 668. GatorWX:


And yes, links a plenty, but know what? It was a hell of a lot faster!

You should call him, or try, out of the blue.


I have a couple of times and gotten no answer. We were pretty good friends. Played our share of Halo together. Were supposed to go chase Ophelia, but ended up being too far N for me. He was riding around the OBX in an old jeep with the surfer/volunteer fire fighter if I remember correctly.
Quoting 671. StormJunkie:

See! See! How they do that!!! HAARP!!! See!



HAARP was shutdown in 2014.
The conditions are very favorable, anyway.
Big shift E for ECMWF.



That's it for me. Night all, for real this time. Been fun
euro is way east with a DR hit, trending toward a Haiti hit and maybe avoiding the Bahamas to go out to sea??
676. ackee
Quoting 666. Drakoen:

Still big differences between the ECMWF and GFS at only 72 hours out.
all models seem all over the place Euro slower GFs much faster other models different solution off to bed watch where this storm go old fashioned way
Quoting 552. win1gamegiantsplease:

I guess GFS has the storm growing in size as it goes poleward, but it seems like it might be stronger off the Carolina coast than near Jamaica/Cuba? Not sure about that, even if it follows the GS
Yes. The GFS seems to have Matthew expanding in size and lowering in pressure as it goes up the coast in one model.
Quoting 674. StormJunkie:

Big shift E for ECMWF.



That's it for me. Night all, for real this time. Been fun


As expected.

Night Sj and er'yone else.
Rutro Rorge!!!
00Z GFS Ensembles



00Z CMC Ensembles



just awaiting the 00Z Euro Ensembles
Tons of anxiety on the Jersey Shore until the threat of Matthew has passed. We are awaiting the construction of our Army Corps of Engineer-designed dune system from Sandy Hook to Cape May. We are VERY prone to flooding, and these dunes are supposed to be like our New Orleans levee system. Right now, we are totally vulnerable. The construction has been delayed and delayed, and it's 3 years 11 months to the day since Sandy.
previous Ensembles

18Z GFS Ensembles



12Z CMC Ensembles



12Z Euro Ensembles

Quoting 681. popartpete:

Tons of anxiety on the Jersey Shore until the threat of Matthew has passed. We are awaiting the construction of our Army Corps of Engineer-designed dune system from Sandy Hook to Cape May. We are VERY prone to flooding, and these dunes are supposed to be like our New Orleans levee system. Right now, we are totally vulnerable. The construction has been delayed and delayed, and it's 3 years 11 months to the day since Sandy.


Sorry to hear that and wish you the best of luck. Our beaches are extremely vunerable on OBX as well...

Link
Quoting 680. wunderkidcayman:

00Z GFS Ensembles



00Z CMC Ensembles



just awaiting the 00Z Euro Ensembles
Quoting 682. wunderkidcayman:

previous Ensembles

18Z GFS Ensembles



12Z CMC Ensembles



12Z Euro Ensembles




so far from what I can tell new GFS Ensembles has shifted W the CMC Ensembles has shifted slightly E

and now we await to see what the Euro ensembles show

Quoting 677. popartpete:

Yes. The GFS seems to have Matthew expanding in size and lowering in pressure as it goes up the coast in one model.


No, absolutely freaking not. If you pay close attention, after landfalling, it is around 100 mph. Before, it was 190 mph.

Matthew has an eye. Oh, and it's 5 km long.
CMC

Link
hmm not as broad as before

Quoting 686. NunoLava1998:


Matthew has an eye.


If that's true, then where's the nose and mouth???
Quoting 690. wxhatt:



If that's true, then where's the nose and mouth???

hurricanes don't have noses and mouths
Quoting 686. NunoLava1998:


Matthew has an eye. Oh, and it's 5 km long.


does not have an eye
Quoting 689. wunderkidcayman:

hmm not as broad as before




zeroing in possibly...
Quoting 692. wunderkidcayman:



does not have an eye

just look closely, please.
Matthew is still being sheared and still slightly decoupled with low level center SW of the convective blob
Quoting 694. NunoLava1998:


just look closely, please.


Okay, so we know you need a course on eye wall developement; LOL
Quoting 694. NunoLava1998:


just look closely, please.


does not have an eye
Quoting 695. wunderkidcayman:

Matthew is still being sheared and still slightly decoupled with low level center SW of the convective blob


quite correct...
Quoting 695. wunderkidcayman:

Matthew is still being sheared and still slightly decoupled with low level center SW of the convective blob

lmao lol no
Quoting 697. wunderkidcayman:



does not have an eye

RBTOP imagery shows it.
Quoting 699. NunoLava1998:


lmao lol no


Okay, so have your fun LOL ...
Quoting 700. NunoLava1998:


RBTOP imagery shows it.



no eye, no eye, no eye
Quoting 696. wxhatt:



Okay, so we know you need a course on eye wall developement; LOL


yeah among many other things

Nuno has a history not no WU yet but on other sites and oh boy is he something else
Quoting 701. wxhatt:



Okay, so have your fun LOL ...



by your logic, this is a 130 mph C2 that is very sheared
Quoting 700. NunoLava1998:


RBTOP imagery shows it.



lolx100000000
That is not an eye
Either your trolling, or you need some education on the subject.



As the storm gets stronger, it gets rounder and the eye begins to form. Really strong hurricanes have very clear round eyes like the one in this picture. The most intense winds in a hurricane are in the thunderstorms that form the eyewall.
Heh, Matthew and Patricia '15 are leagues apart. Their central pressures are separated by well over a dab (decabar).

*EDIT: I'm sleep deprived, it should be decibars (db), and it's no longer cool.
Quoting 707. 1900hurricane:

Heh, Matthew and Patricia '15 are leagues apart. Their central pressures are separated by well over a dab (decabar).

i know, lol.

this is just
so accurate
(sarcasm)
If you would direct yourself to the CMISS website, click on the yellow matthew hurricane symbol, then check "vort", and radio button IR-NHC; you will see that the CDO is seperated from the lower level vortex.

Link
If the link does not work: tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
Since the storm did not have a closed off eyewall previously, It does not have one in this condition. That will probably change in the near future, when the shear drops off.
No eye.
Patience.
NHC has not updated 5 AM.
716. MahFL
Quoting 715. NunoLava1998:

NHC has not updated 5 AM.


It's not 5 am yet, 7 mins to go...
717. MahFL
So latest model run = out to sea...
Good morning with a little sideglance to battered Australia:

Almost the entire south east corner of Australia under severe weather warnings
September 29, 20165:43pm
ALMOST the entire south east corner of Australia is on high alert as one of the biggest storms in 50 years continues. The Bureau of Meteorology has issued severe weather warnings in South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, the ACT and Tasmania. An intense lower pressure system will continue to move across SA after super cell thunderstorms brought down the entire power network on Wednesday. ...

South Australia on alert again as Adelaide braces for strongest storm on record
Emergency services tell Adelaide workers to go home, warning destructive weather that caused a state-wide blackout on Wednesday set to strike with renewed ferocity
The Guardian/Australian Associated Press, Thursday 29 September 2016 08.42 BST



Click the pic.twitter.com link:






719. MahFL
So much shear, always...
good/morning troughiness continues here in e cen fl. as long as this continues we should be okay. but if it gets sunny and dry, watch out.
Typhoon Megi: dozens missing after landslides hit two Chinese villages
Heavy typhoon rains caused the landslides to crash into Sucun and Baofeng village in Zheijiang province, destroying scores of buildings
The Guardian, Reuters and Associated Press, Thursday 29 September 2016 01.01 BST


And this in the middle of the pic is TS Chaba which is supposed to aim at Japan. Infos about the future typhoon.
Convection still all east of center.
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h
1 hour ago


Pennsylvania, USA
euro has shifted east in relation to what will become a dangerous storm for Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba and Bahamas US fate looking better
hopefully we dont see any persistent convection outbreaks north coast of venuzuela
6z GFS 108 hrs

European Ensembles still pretty indecisive

Please no one in the U.S. let their guard down yet, 06z gfs actually shifted a little more west towards the U.S. coast. When you compare the 00Z Euro and the GFS 06z the Euro is 3 days slower. That will make a huge difference in the eventual track, the Euro ensembles have many members still going into gulf, making landfall in Florida or up the east coast. To say this OTS scenario is what will exactly happen is not a smart move considering the back and forth with models and this complex pattern, we are still 5 plus days before it gets out of the Caribbean and things can and will change.
Good Morning

I agree with JB from weatherbell! US fate is looking so much better now and I'm going to let my guard down a little bit and not track as much as I was. I will check in once a day maybe. Have a great day yall from NC!
730. beell
731. beell


TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

Matthew is currently experiencing 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center located near the western edge of the main convective mass. An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission reported 850 mb flight-level winds of 65-70 kt and estimated surface winds of 50-55 kt from the SFMR instrument. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. The aircraft reported a central pressure of 1002 mb on its last pass through the center.

The initial motion is 275/14. Matthew is currently on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. This feature should steer the storm westward or even south of west during the next 48 hours. After that time, Matthew is expected to approach the western end of the ridge as a mid- to upper-level trough develops over the Gulf of Mexico. While this combination is expected to cause the cyclone to turn generally northward, there is significant disagreement between the dynamical models on where the turn will occur and how fast Matthew will move northward. The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean in bringing the center to eastern Cuba by 120 hours, although it is slower than those models. The Canadian model is a little west of the forecast track. The ECMWF and UKMET are to the east of the forecast track and much slower, bringing the center to the island of Hispaniola. Overall, the new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous track for the first 72 hours, then is similar to the previous track. Users are reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240 miles, respectively.

The current shear is likely to gradually diminish during the next 72 hours, and this should allow continued gradual development. After that time, there is also disagreement in the models regarding the forecast shear, with the GFS showing a more favorable pattern than the ECMWF. If the GFS upper-level winds are correct, Matthew could strengthen more than currently forecast as show by the HWRF. However, given the uncertainty, the new intensity forecast is the same as the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 726. JrWeathermanFL:

European Ensembles still pretty indecisive




Totally indecisive.
Models that are shifting more east shows a strengthening trough in the North Atlantic coming in 5 days that breaks down the ridge, if that does not happen like models show the ridge may build back in strong in about 4-5 days and steer this more west, then beyond 5 days most models showing a blocking high moving in over the Northeast, strength of these pieces that will steer Matthew are still unknown, so there is a lot to be answered over the next 48 hours.
Morning, everybody.
This is from 5am NHC Matthew Discussion:

The current shear is likely to gradually diminish during the next
72 hours, and this should allow continued gradual development.
After that time, there is also disagreement in the models regarding
the forecast shear, with the GFS showing a more favorable pattern
than the ECMWF. If the GFS upper-level winds are correct, Matthew
could strengthen more than currently forecast as show by the HWRF.
However, given the uncertainty, the new intensity forecast is the
same as the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the
intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 14.0N 64.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 14.1N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 14.1N 69.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 13.9N 70.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 13.8N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 14.5N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 17.5N 75.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 20.5N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
Round round round he goes
Where he stops nobody knows

But my idea is around Gulf Shores Al in about 8 days....strong high to north
frontal boundary central gulf
Quoting 736. K8eCane:

Round round round he goes
Where he stops nobody knows

But my idea is around Gulf Shores Al in about 8 days....strong high to north
frontal boundary central gulf
Gutsy call. I hope you're wrong as that would put me and mine solidly in the east side eye wall.
He is referring to Euro ensembles:

Ed Vallee %u200F@EdValleeWx 12 minutes ago

By day 10, there continues to be a tremendous spread in track from Houston to Bermuda. Eastern Gulf to the East coast should watch #Matthew.


Matthew is losing his pants a little, needs to pull them back up.
Matthew is definitely having shear issues. Recon will confirm for us, but the center is probably near the left edge of the convection. Much if any strengthening looks unlikely today, and I think the prospects for a major hurricane in the Caribbean have dropped quite a bit due to shear, and eventually land interaction. The jury is still out on track and intensity north of the Caribbean. To me, it looks more conducive for strengthening once Matthew moves towards the eastern Bahamas. Track-wise, out to sea is definitely the model trend, but it's still too early to say.
Looks like another overhyped system...been theme for 2016...Mr. Shear to rescue and Lord Trough escorts him out to sea....shear forcasting has really been bad this season.
Almost all Euro ensembles are still in Carribean in 7 days. How will we know the exact strength of the ridge and troughs this far out if that's true? Models beyond 7 days have hundreds of miles of track error, could go east or west from what is currently shown. Will have a better idea in the next 2 days.
Good Morning Folks.  4 current points as to Matthew:
a) You can see the CIMSS shear which should keep the storm in check in the short term; 
b) Once Matthew clears the shear, and intensifies, it looks to coming close to going through the gap area between Cuba and Hispanola which will leave Haiti in the strong side of a very large and potentially powerful hurricane;
c) If it does shoot the gap, with little impact on the core from land interactions, the Bahamas may get the worse of this storm with record SSTs to boot;
d) You can see the start of the trof forming in the Gulf on the VW loop, mentioned in the earlier NHC discussion, which is expected to pick the storm up to the North.


80 kt flight level winds and 60 kt surface winds.

Min pressure: 1002.6mb and dropping as they close in.

After a very short recon flight out to Matthew, they're now sending in data; Matthew is almost a hurricane, despite the shear. Flight level winds (5,000ft) at 80kts, and surface winds up to 60kts.
Recon finding 60kt surface winds - Looks like Matthew is almost a hurricane.
And here is the current stacking at all levels; slightly titled to the NE as the result of the southwesterly shear between the surface and mid-levels but not stacked at all in the upper levels due to the sheer blowing off the top levels to the East:

Upper:




Mid:



Surface:
Matthew almost a Hurricane based on Recon, winds should go up at next update.
994.7mb.
Quoting 745. Tornado6042008X:

80 kt flight level winds and 60 kt surface winds.

Min pressure: 1002.6mb and dropping as they close in.




Now showing a min pressure of 996mb...
Quoting 743. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Almost all Euro ensembles are still in Carribean in 7 days. How will we know the exact strength of the ridge and troughs this far out if that's true? Models beyond 7 days have hundreds of miles of track error, could go east or west from what is currently shown. Will have a better idea in the next 2 days.

You are right lots to figure out one day at a time.
Pressure 995mb.
And the first vis shots of the morning as the sun comes up over the storm: interesting jog to the SW as noted in the 5:00 am NHC discussion:









Recon finding pressures of around 995 mb at the centre of Matthew.
Woah 994-995 mb readings in Matthew from Recon. Stronger
Those recon readings are interesting when juxtaposed again the general look of the storm this am (un-symetrical due to shear issues); it suggests that the lower level core circulation is quite vigorous and the current convective burst is helping to lower pressures: Matthew is fighting against the shear and you can see it in this loop. Pushing head-first and full steam ahead into the shear gauntlet............................





Quoting 756. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Woah 994-995 mb readings in Matthew from Recon. Stronger


Stronger but still disorganized
I'm really surprised at the recon numbers. This microwave pass is brand new; Matthew is not far from having an exposed center.

760. Ed22
Quoting 756. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Woah 994-995 mb readings in Matthew from Recon. Stronger
Thats wow, it gos to show that Matthew is strengthening.
Center is west of deepest convection. Based on the readings this could become a Hurricane anytime this morning, the way its strengthening in the 15-20 knots of shear it is under is concerning.
Here is the partial-shot ASCAT pass from 7:00 am showing the circulation around the core:



Quoting 759. MAweatherboy1:

I'm really surprised at the recon numbers. This microwave pass is brand new; Matthew is not far from having an exposed center.



Doesn't make sense, satellite shows sw shear and dry air hammering it.
Quoting 744. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks. 4 current points as to Matthew:
a) You can see the CIMSS shear which should keep the storm in check in the short term;
b) Once Matthew clears the shear, and intensifies, it looks to coming close to going through the gap area between Cuba and Hispanola which will leave Haiti in the strong side of a very large and potentially powerful hurricane;
c) If it does shoot the gap, with little impact on the core from land interactions, the Bahamas may get the worse of this storm with record SSTs to boot;
d) You can see the start of the trof forming in the Gulf on the VW loop, mentioned in the earlier NHC discussion, which is expected to pick the storm up to the North.



But if it goes just West of the Windward Passage it will have to deal with Cuba's highest mountains which will disrupt it quite a bit.

Quoting 742. derecho1:

Looks like another overhyped system...been theme for 2016...Mr. Shear to rescue and Lord Trough escorts him out to sea....shear forcasting has really been bad this season.
Some people really have no idea what the term "hype" means, do they?

The fact is, there is a strengthening storm in the Caribbean that shows every indication of becoming a major monster in a few days' time. History shows that storms such as Matthew don't simply sneak their way out of the Caribbean without leaving a mark. That's because the Caribbean is surrounded on all sides by land masses of various size full of people playing and working and going on with their lives, and major cyclones tend to leave wide swaths of damage and death on their way out. Now, for some odd reason, there's palpable disappointment expressed by some here when forecasts indicate that a particular storm won't directly affect the US. To each their own, I guess. But make no mistake about this: Matthew is going to destroy, and he's going to kill, and to the poor souls who will soon find themselves on the receiving end, there's no "hype" to Matthew at all...
The Eastern Caribbean is often referred to as the TS graveyard; no surprise that Matthew is showing some "bones" but still trying fight through it................................
Quoting 764. pingon:

But if it goes just West of the Windward Passage it will have to deal with Cuba's highest mountains which will disrupt it quite a bit.



Great points and thanks for the map and pics......................
You know this is a vigorous circulation and about to be a powerful storm when Recon is finding 80kt flight level and 60kt surface winds on NW side of circulation with hardly any convection.
Quoting 766. weathermanwannabe:

The Eastern Caribbean is often referred to as the TS graveyard; no surprise that Matthew is showing some "bones" but still trying fight through it................................


new kind of storm due to climate change
8:00 am track update: right over the Cuban mountains as noted by Pingon if this track holds............Good Catch.

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Quoting 770. weathermanwannabe:

8:00 am track update: right over the Cuban mountains as noted by Pingon if this track holds............Good Catch.

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]




And still marked as hurricane halfway across....
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 65.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 65.5 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a general westward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew
is forecast to pass to the north of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao
through Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane later
today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
primarily to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from
reconnaissance aircraft is 995 mb (29.38 inches).
Quoting 680. wunderkidcayman:

00Z GFS Ensembles



00Z CMC Ensembles



just awaiting the 00Z Euro Ensembles
Quoting 682. wunderkidcayman:

previous Ensembles

18Z GFS Ensembles



12Z CMC Ensembles



12Z Euro Ensembles




Ok sorry for not getting the recent Euro ensemble out but here it is

Quoting 769. K8eCane:



new kind of storm due to climate change

LOL
775. joHS
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 11:53Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 11:32:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°07'N 65°27'W (14.1167N 65.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 300 statute miles (482 km) to the S (172°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,390m (4,560ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 59° at 80kts (From the ENE at ~ 92.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.42 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph) which was observed 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NW (311°) from the flight level center at 11:18:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 95° at 11kts (From the E at 13mph)
Good morning. So what's next in the pipeline after Matthew? Waves behind but can anyone of them make it to storm status? "Predictions" anyone? Did not receive much rain from Matt.
Quoting 774. blueyedbiker:


LOL


Laugh if you want but its inevitable and will take time to be understood
Quoting 770. weathermanwannabe:

8:00 am track update: right over the Cuban mountains as noted by Pingon if this track holds............Good Catch.

[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]




You do know that the current cone hasn't changed since the 5am updated ya the only thing that updates is the current info on the track

Cone updated don't happen in intermediate advisory

779. ackee
I would not be surprised if the model forecast for shear level in Caribbean be wrong and Matthew suffer another karl like experience shear is very strong in the central carrbb
Quoting 771. K8eCane:



And still marked as hurricane halfway across....


Those mountains will not impact the storm too much if the mid-level core of a strong hurricane remains in good shape for an easier reformation at the surface once is clears them; for the sake of the Bahamas, any disruption that will cause some short-term weakening might mean the difference between a Cat 1 to a Cat 3 for the Southern Bahamas at least.
Even though Matthew is being sheared like what we been seeing in the past. It actually fighting it which is a bad sign.
Looks like there's a pretty good agreement with the models that it will make the turn and head due north then possibly missing the US East Coast.
Hi Everyone!
I'm just not buying the eastward trend. I think it will go over Jamaica. But the models seem to think differently.
784. Ed22
Quoting 756. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Woah 994-995 mb readings in Matthew from Recon. Stronger
Thats wow, it gos to show that Matthew is strengthening.
Try threading a moving needle and you may begin to understand the difficulty of pinpointing track this far out.
Quoting 783. CCSoFLA79:

Hi Everyone!
I'm just not buying the eastward trend. I think it will go over Jamaica. But the models seem to think differently.


Models are in good agreement east. The Euro (considered the best model) is even more east. Having said that, it wouldn't take a major shift to bring it over Jamaica.
As noted by Recon, and many on here, if Matthew is able to lower pressures in the face of moderate shear, and it is able to maintain hurricane strength through-out the period as currently forecast, the intensity question is the following; will Matthew make major hurricane status once it clears the shear to the South of Cuba or right after Cuba in the warm SSTs of the Bahamas...................When shear lowers at any point in the current trajectory, Matthew is probably going to reach major status downstream at some point.  Here is the shear tendency for the past 24 hours around and ahead of Matthew at the moment:





Good Morning

Just another model....
Recon heading to NE side of storm where deep convection is, I'm sure there will be impressive readings in there.
Quoting 769. K8eCane:



new kind of storm due to climate change
Please, no nonsense at this time.
On the Tropical cover page on this site, there is an Invest 97 showing as well as/beside Matthew. Their respective locations are different, but very close. Does this mean that there are 2 systems moving in tandem, or is it a fluke of WU's publishing?
With the winds recon is finding, from the last center fix (64kt) and what's showing on the SFMR now (60+kt), what are the odds NHC issues a special bulletin to upgrade to hurricane?
Quoting 791. NativeSun:

Please, no nonsense at this time.


Excuse me? There is less nonsense in my statement than you must be capable of understanding. So no nonsense from you.
Quoting 785. Chicklit:

Try threading a moving needle and you may begin to understand the difficulty of pinpointing track this far out.

At my age and with my vision, I don't even try anymore Chicklit. I let my granddaughters handle it! :-)
Prayers for everyone already affected by and will be affected by Matthew in the Caribbean, I hope the worst possible scenario can somehow be avoided and it's not catastrophic.
797. Ed22
Quoting 792. WinkingBlueJay:

On the Tropical cover page on this site, there is an Invest 97 showing as well as/beside Matthew. Their respective locations are different, but very close. Does this mean that there are 2 systems moving in tandem, or is it a fluke of WU's publishing?
it a fluke because 97L is Matthew.
looks like the GFS did its job we needed the rain but not the wind....hoooo huuuum cant win in this climate......at least we arent California
Quoting 779. ackee:

I would not be surprised if the model forecast for shear level in Caribbean be wrong and Matthew suffer another karl like experience shear is very strong in the central carrbb


This might just eventually weaken Matthew a bit
I wonder how this might affect the forecast
that shear ahead will temper him
Quoting 784. Ed22:

Thats wow, it gos to show that Matthew is strengthening.
801. Ed22
Quoting 793. afweatherguy86:

With the winds recon is finding, from the last center fix (64kt) and what's showing on the SFMR now (60+kt), what are the odds NHC issues a special bulletin to upgrade to hurricane?
They could do just that, its up them to deside.
Rammb page is back up (after a tech glitch) this am with the 30 minute sat shot updates; good comparison between the vis and rainbow shots between the upper level shear issues and the core convection at the surface and mid-levels: note that the convective burst at 15N is trying to wrap down towards the coc per the NHC  Recon message at 14.7N but having trouble seeing the LLC on this vis shot.



Quoting 792. WinkingBlueJay:

On the Tropical cover page on this site, there is an Invest 97 showing as well as/beside Matthew. Their respective locations are different, but very close. Does this mean that there are 2 systems moving in tandem, or is it a fluke of WU's publishing?

no WU is slow in re moveing stuff the only thing we have is mat
It will surprise me if Matthew becomes a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean.
What the shear

Quoting 808. Grothar:




After Cuba who can really tell where Matthew will go?
If I were Matthew, I would be trying to reform the llc core under the convective burst at 15N; looking forward to what NHC determines later today for the 11:00 am update in terms of the coc location:








Quoting 783. CCSoFLA79:

Hi Everyone!
I'm just not buying the eastward trend. I think it will go over Jamaica. But the models seem to think differently.


I'm not buyin it either I still say over Western Jamaica or just W of Jamaica some of the models agree others think a bit different

The fact is it's a complex pattern set up and this could end up anywhere from NW Carib/W tip of Cuba to Western Haiti

The forecast for the next 48-72hrs is pretty straight forward but after that it's full of uncertainty
From a while ago



Exemplifying that the dry side of Matt is even strong. Probably still strengthening even though shear making it look crappy
815. ackee
O12z model shifted west like GFS guess we see closer to Jamaica
Quoting 754. weathermanwannabe:

And the first vis shots of the morning as the sun comes up over the storm: interesting jog to the SW as noted in the 5:00 am NHC discussion:












Yeah it almost looks like he is about to decouple. That LLC is about to get ejected to the SW I think.
817. ackee


Quoting 812. wunderkidcayman:



I'm not buyin it either I still say over Western Jamaica or just W of Jamaica some of the models agree others think a bit different

The fact is it's a complex pattern set up and this could end up anywhere from NW Carib/W tip of Cuba to Western Haiti

The forecast for the next 48-72hrs is pretty straight forward but after that it's full of uncertainty
agree
Quoting 809. JrWeathermanFL:

What the shear




For days I kept posting the shear maps questioning the impacts on Matthew and was told it would go away. There is still a lot of shear out ahead of it.
Quoting 742. derecho1:

Looks like another overhyped system...been theme for 2016...Mr. Shear to rescue and Lord Trough escorts him out to sea....shear forcasting has really been bad this season.


So since it appears at least at the moment based on the current cone that Matthew is OTS, whats inline next?
Matthew Rapid Scan Visible Loop

WTNT34 KNHC 291204 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

CORRECTED SPEED OF MOTION

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 65.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 65.5 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general westward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew
is forecast to pass to the north of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao
through Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane later
today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
primarily to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from
reconnaissance aircraft is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao,
and Aruba beginning late today.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



823. elioe
NHC is way too conservative in its intensity forecast. Given how GFS, GFDL and HWRF intensify the storm, if Matthew stays in the Caribbean for almost five days, the pressure is likely to be in 940-950 mbar range by landfall in Cuba, so the likely wind range would be 120-140 mph. Unless it goes over Jamaica.

Quoting 769. K8eCane:



new kind of storm due to climate change


Actually, in this situation, climate change is hindering the ability of Matthew to intensify. Convection is totally displaced. The upper troposphere directly to the SW of the center is cloud-free. Increased carbon dioxide levels cause the upper troposphere there to lose heat more rapidly, encouraging the air to sink.
A 42.3 miles shift west on the new run.

Looking at Recon, The entire East and Northeast side of the storm is loaded with Hurricane force flight level winds.
Quoting 819. Bucsboltsfan:



For days I kept posting the shear maps questioning the impacts on Matthew and was told it would go away. There is still a lot of shear out ahead of it.


Shear will relax, the upper level trough is moving west with it and once Matthew slows down the trough will keep moving away from it. It might struggle today, but from 1007mb yesterday afternoon to 995mb this morning. Doesn't seem to be hurting him much.
Quoting 824. Grothar:

A 42.3 miles shift west on the new run.





IDK, i'm seeing more 42.7 but who knows really.
could this be a sandy do over, its large and following a simular path
Quoting 816. ILwthrfan:



Yeah it almost looks like he is about to decouple. That LLC is about to get ejected to the SW I think.


It does look that way on the vis loops; wondering if that ejection we "might" be seeing happened right after the last recon pass and whether a reformation is trying to happen under the convective burst. Why I am dying to see the 11:00 am NHC update, rather than speculate too much, as to whether shear is winning the battle or Matthew. The am statement as to lower pressures was correct based on recon but things have change a bit in the last hour; Matthew is more lopsided at the moment than it was two hours ago:



Time: 12:49:30Z
Coordinates: 15.067N 65.050W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.3 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,543 m (5,062 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.9 mb (29.83 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 88° at 77 kts (From the E at 88.6 mph)
Air Temp: 13.2°C (55.8°F)
Dew Pt: 13.2°C (55.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 78 kts (89.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 59 kts* (67.9 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 19 mm/hr* (0.75 in/hr*)
Quoting 803. GeoffreyWPB:






Hmm I've noticed the BAM suite (BAMS, BAMM, BAMD) has shifted W through 96Hr and I've noticed overall a W shift in the BAM suite over past couple of runs

Infact with the whole 12Z runs most of the models have shifted ever so much to the W some of them models shifted E and some didn't shift from previous run

GFDL GFDN GFDI etc has shifted ever so slightly E and N

Anyway let's see what happens over next 24-48hrs
Eastward shift means Haiti gets another bad day while lots of us grab surf boards as it moves away from the seaboard.
Quoting 818. NativeSun:

If it is not nonsense, please prove it to me, but at another time as this blog is about Matthew, a hurricane threatening the Caribbean. Please keep the climate change agenda to another time, and place.


And you keep starting it with me, so you go to another blog. Stop trying to bully and control. You are not a blog master.
Quoting 824. Grothar:

A 42.3 miles shift west on the new run.




I'd just round it off to 45 lol

The W shifts continue I suspect they will continue and maybe by a few more longer miles the shift would do lol

Anyway as I said let see what happens over next 24-48 hrs
Quoting 824. Grothar:

A 42.3 miles shift west on the new run.




Flip flopping like presidential candidates
836. ackee
Despite shear Matthew seems have strength 70mph the pressure 995 the 0z Euro run had similar reading
Going to be a pretty fish system for conus...models showing...gaston set the bar this season so far.
Quoting 832. win1gamegiantsplease:

Eastward shift means Haiti gets another bad day while lots of us grab surf boards as it moves away from the seaboard.


To be honest a good portion of the models has shifted W and the only main decent shift E is the GFDL/GFDN and that's one of the farthest W models so that ain't sayin much

Link

This is a link to the GEOS-5 model which has the storm Crossing Cuba hooking West going up the West Coast of Florida into the Big Bend and then coming back down towards Tampa...
Quoting 812. wunderkidcayman:



I'm not buyin it either I still say over Western Jamaica or just W of Jamaica some of the models agree others think a bit different

The fact is it's a complex pattern set up and this could end up anywhere from NW Carib/W tip of Cuba to Western Haiti

The forecast for the next 48-72hrs is pretty straight forward but after that it's full of uncertainty


not surprising that someone from the Cayman Islands thinks it will go W of Jamaica. Not one reliable model shows that and the true complicated pattern doesn't really impact the storm until after the turn north
Quoting 837. derecho1:

Going to be a pretty fish system for conus...models showing...gaston set the bar this season so far.


Yep looks like out with the fishes after Cuba and maybe Bahamas based on current models anyways but guess it could change who knows at this point.
It's all just a waiting game at this point.
Quoting 641. GTstormChaserCaleb:

If you follow this animation of the 500 mb. absolute vorticity by the latest GFS run, you'll see an impulse swing down from Texas and move through the northern Gulf Coast. Perhaps the remnant energy associated with Tropical Depression Rosalyn.


Not sure on Rosalyn remnant. Just wanted to mention today's NWS Norman early a.m. discussion pertinent to Matthew steering - the "next trough." Discussion excerpt interesting in terms of that sweeping low pressure on your (excellent!) graphic:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
617 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

"An upper ridge will continue over parts of the region for the rest of the work week with a closed low over the Ohio Valley and upper trough along the West Coast... Models have come into better agreement on tonight`s 0Z model runs in regards to the upper pattern for early next week compared to yesterday`s 0Z runs. Models show the upper trough/low moving into and across the western U.S. this weekend and early next week with the upper low centered over Wyoming by 12Z Tuesday. The upper low/trough will continue to move east or northeast Tuesday/Wednesday with a dryline and cold front expected to affect the region. This system will bring a chance for showers/storms to the fa starting Monday night and continuing into Wednesday. Strong to severe storms may be possible Tuesday but there are still some uncertainties..."


First chances of rain here in more than a week.
center fix is def centered under the cdo
Quoting 841. Grothar:


Shifted West?
Quoting 841. Grothar:


Grothar would that give the E Coast of SFL TS Force Winds?!??
Matthew is not looking too good at the moment low level spin getting very exposed I can now see the center very good now

Matthew might have over achieved a little too much

This might invoke a weakening trend for a while for Mathew
Quoting 843. SFLWeatherman:

It's all just a waiting game at this point.

Looks to be taking a SW Dive....
Flight level winds from recon:

12:57:00Z 14.733N 65.333W 842.7 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,526 meters
(~ 5,007 feet) 1005.4 mb
(~ 29.69 inHg) - From 116 at 61 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 70.2 mph) 14.8C
(~ 58.6F) 14.8C
(~ 58.6F) 70 knots
(~ 80.6 mph)

Quoting 818. NativeSun:

If it is not nonsense, please prove it to me, but at another time as this blog is about Matthew, a hurricane threatening the Caribbean. Please keep the climate change agenda to another time, and place.


Not K8e or anyone else is responsible for educating you. The majority of the scientific community agrees with what she's saying, it's up to you to prove otherwise. However, Dr. M regularly updates this blog with overwhelming data supporting the fact of man-made climate change so I suggest you read his blog entry history. So yes this is the correct place for that discussion, I assure you. Your comments are what belong on a fringe political blog.

For fun: http://xkcd.com/1732/

Now back to Matthew.

Motion is still due west. Convection blowing off to the NE is giving the illusion of the center heading SW. Recon second fix confirms this.
Are we seeing the naked swirl thing happening?

Et tu, Matthew? :(
Quoting 840. Twinkster:



not surprising that someone from the Cayman Islands thinks it will go W of Jamaica. Not one reliable model shows that and the true complicated pattern doesn't really impact the storm until after the turn north


That has nothing to do with me thinking of the possibilities of this system moving over Western Jamaica of just W off of Jamaica

Mind you when I said W of Jamaica I did mean or say that it would go Cayman I said W of Jamaica and just offshore of Jamaica if anything if it does it would be much closer to Jamaica than Cayman

Quoting 846. Camerooski:

Shifted West?


Yes, GFS and others moved west from yesterday. That would make the east coast of Florida windy.
The NHC's official forecast is still east of where it was yesterday afternoon. Yesterday the NHC's official track went right over Jamaica.
The 8am official track is half way between Jamaica and Haiti.

So I'm not seeing any westerly shift from the NHC.
Quoting 849. Camerooski:

Looks to be taking a SW Dive....


Yes maybe we would need a few more recon fixes to say for sure

Quoting 852. kmanislander:

Motion is still due west. Convection blowing off to the NE is giving the illusion of the center heading SW. Recon second fix confirms this.


Yes that could be a possibility we await the third and forth fix
What about the wave behind Matthew that just rolled off Africa? It looks pretty healthy IMO...
Quoting 857. wunderkidcayman:



Yes maybe we would need a fez more recon fixes to say for sure



Yes that could be a possibility we await the third and forth fix

Finally!!! Someone who agrees more Fez would fix everything! -Shriners
Quoting 854. wunderkidcayman:



That has nothing to do with me thinking of the possibilities of this system moving over Western Jamaica of just W off of Jamaica

Mind you when I said W of Jamaica I did mean or say that it would go Cayman I said W of Jamaica and just offshore of Jamaica if anything if it does it would be much closer to Jamaica than Cayman


It could get within a mustache's hair of Jamaica. Good morning Wunderkid!!!!
I highly doubt Matthew's LLC is going to be ejected, it's just being sheared at the moment with a pocket of drier air on its western side. Models were forecasting this though and despite that it's still strengthening.

Once shear lessens and that pocket of dry air moistens, Matthew looks like he could strengthen quickly. Plenty of warm water ahead and the heat content gets very high for Matthew later this week and into next week:

well the center WUZ under the convection, now it looks like it is peeking out. long way to go but will be fun to watch! my first name is matthew but i go by the middle name curse...so i hope it is a big one!
Quoting 852. kmanislander:

Motion is still due west. Convection blowing off to the NE is giving the illusion of the center heading SW. Recon second fix confirms this.


Yes, it is still west. You can't dispute the center fixes from the aircraft.
Quoting 859. MonsterTrough:


Finally!!! Someone who agrees more Fez would fix everything! -Shriners


Lol it was a typo

Don't get yourself so hyped

Quoting 860. Llamaluvr:

It could get within a mustache's hair of Jamaica. Good morning Wunderkid!!!!


Good morning

Quoting 863. FyrtleMyrtle:

well the center WUZ under the convection, now it looks like it is peeking out. long way to go but will be fun to watch! my first name is matthew but i go by the middle name curse...so i hope it is a big one!

Your middle name is Curse ???
Quoting 862. Grothar:




NOT Good for Camp Lejune.
Quoting 769. K8eCane:



new kind of storm due to climate change


Not really. So far there is nothing remarkable about the storm that would indicate it is outside of climatic norms.
Quoting 854. wunderkidcayman:



That has nothing to do with me thinking of the possibilities of this system moving over Western Jamaica of just W off of Jamaica

Mind you when I said W of Jamaica I did mean or say that it would go Cayman I said W of Jamaica and just offshore of Jamaica if anything if it does it would be much closer to Jamaica than Cayman




Wkc you really don't notice all your comments on this blog regarding storms are always forecasting a storm generally moving towards you?

I think you are knowledgeable and you probably tend to not comment on storms that you know to be moving away from you maybe, giving that impression. I know I pay less attention to storms that are not a threat to my area. But you can't blame people for calling you out on this.

In this case, yes you have support from some of the less reliable models and some ensemble members of the high performing models, not to mention Levi mentioned a westward shift possibility on his update last night, so it's definitely possible still, and I'm rooting for you actually because it would bring it closer to me, lol, but the NHC forecast track looks pretty solid right now don't you think?
I would suspect that Matthew has temporarily peaked and could very well weaken until it gets into a better environment. Long term it should be a large and dangerous storm.
Second vortex is up and pressure is up by 1mb
Quoting 829. weathermanwannabe:



It does look that way on the vis loops; wondering if that ejection we "might" be seeing happened right after the last recon pass and whether a reformation is trying to happen under the convective burst. Why I am dying to see the 11:00 am NHC update, rather than speculate too much, as to whether shear is winning the battle or Matthew. The am statement as to lower pressures was correct based on recon but things have change a bit in the last hour; Matthew is more lopsided at the moment than it was two hours ago:





Could that be the S/W movement some of the models have been showing?
NHC admits to their track forecast being a high error margin. The models have flipped back and forth, but in large part have trended west from a few days ago (according to Levi the GFS has trended towards the Euro and not the other way around) with both models impacting Hispaniola. Hispanola looks like it may be in the clear now in terms of a direct hit. GFS shifted its ensembles back east overnight but that does not mean it could flip back with that many days remaining.

Quoting 869. ParanoidAndroid:



Wkc you really don't notice all your comments on this blog regarding storms are always forecasting a storm generally moving towards you?

I think you are knowledgeable and you probably tend to not comment on storms that you know to be moving away from you maybe, giving that impression. I know I pay less attention to storms that are not a threat to my area. But you can't blame people for calling you out on this.

In this case, yes you have support from some of the less reliable models and some ensemble members of the high performing models, not to mention Levi mentioned a westward shift possibility on his update last night, so it's definitely possible still, and I'm rooting for you actually because it would bring it closer to me, lol, but the NHC forecast track looks pretty solid right now don't you think?
Serious train accident at Hoboken Station. Train plowed into platform.
Yes, everything is going to plan so far with the intensity forecast. Minimal strengthening if any in the interim with the possibility of being a major down the road.

Quoting 870. Bucsboltsfan:

I would suspect that Matthew has temporarily peaked and could very well weaken until it gets into a better environment. Long term it should be a large and dangerous storm.
878. IDTH
There is indeed a SW movement occurring which some models did not account for.
Quoting 862. Grothar:



Uhm Gro, that is literally on top of my home in Wilmington.
Quoting 867. Jarhead6012:



NOT Good for Camp Lejune.

Oh no no!!!
I think models are overestimating the current conditions. Trades, shear, and a bit of dry air. I still think Matthew won't become a major until turning north somewhere near Jamaica.
the WSW dip as Euro has shown this past week on its runs.......

Quoting 876. hydrus:


no my middle name is not curse, but having to go by my middle name is somewhat of a curse! every time i go to the doctors office they call me matt like they are cool with me or something...happens alot but i have over it through the years
Tallahassee and parts East of us in the Big Bend already got their smack this season with Hermine and all the damage from downed trees on homes and cars....................Hoping for the ridge shield to protect us should there be any movement to the West if the storm is weaker than forecast in the short-term..............Thank You.
Quoting 876. hydrus:




Hydrus, thanks for posting that water-vapor view. On that graphic you can see Matthew's moisture envelope either compressing in the last frame or diving slightly to the South of pure West. Also, the moisture envelope around the Low that has just emerged from Africa is immense.
Why is there so big a difference on location some have it staying east of Florida for days and some have it in New England in 180 hrs?
Hm... Mathew reminds me of Sandy when she was still in the Caribbean.
Quoting 878. IDTH:

There is indeed a SW movement occurring which some models did not account for.
Uhm Gro, that is literally on top of my home in Wilmington.


OK. I'll move it back. Sheesh!!! :):)
Quoting 874. Grothar:

Serious train accident at Hoboken Station. Train plowed into platform.


Matthew related?
PATH?....whoa boy. Not good.

Gro, think we may see a weaker system slide a little more west? That is my thinking. Very much think Jamaica may see direct impacts.

Quoting 874. Grothar:

Serious train accident at Hoboken Station. Train plowed into platform.
890. Ed22
Quoting 804. Grothar:


The models have shifted back a little west towards Jamaica.
Quoting 878. IDTH:

There is indeed a SW movement occurring which some models did not account for.
Uhm Gro, that is literally on top of my home in Wilmington.


If Gro is a gentleman, he will remove it :)
Quoting 869. ParanoidAndroid:



Wkc you really don't notice all your comments on this blog regarding storms are always forecasting a storm generally moving towards you?

I think you are knowledgeable and you probably tend to not comment on storms that you know to be moving away from you maybe, giving that impression. I know I pay less attention to storms that are not a threat to my area. But you can't blame people for calling you out on this.

In this case, yes you have support from some of the less reliable models and some ensemble members of the high performing models, not to mention Levi mentioned a westward shift possibility on his update last night, so it's definitely possible still, and I'm rooting for you actually because it would bring it closer to me, lol, but the NHC forecast track looks pretty solid right now don't you think?


No so I do talk about storms else where
Admittedly I have not been on WU this year as much as before even last year I haven't been on as much as I would have done in year past so maybe it's that that your noticing maybe

People should stop being on my ass about it I'm not forecasting storms to head towards my way done that it nothing else to that what people seem to be forgetting is that storm go through the Caribbean and a good bit go through the NW Caribbean and Cayman is in that area this is normal look at the storm history that is a very clear case I can't help when a Caribbean system gets going that some how the NW Caribbean gets involved that has nothing to do with me that is natures fault not mine

Btw it's not only Levi that says W shift but many others some forecasters some from other areas within the field so I know I'm not the only one saying it



Quoting 870. Bucsboltsfan:

I would suspect that Matthew has temporarily peaked and could very well weaken until it gets into a better environment. Long term it should be a large and dangerous storm.


Yes that could be
I do wonder how this would impact the forecast I mean after all the cone shows steady strengthening
894. IDTH

I see that Matthew has decided to shed some of his clothes this morning.
Quoting 865. wunderkidcayman:



Lol it was a typo

Don't get yourself so hyped



Good morning



All in good fun WKC! Too many people have it out for ya. Keep on keepin on.

Weather: This cutoff low is sucking my soul of life in Cent Ind. Looks like mid January feels like late October. Lots of rain and some hail makers yesterday.

Matthew: The energy is there. The winds are there. The shear is also there. IMO, the biggest issue is speed. 16mph: gonna outrun the 'coverage' so to speak, every time.
897. Ed22
Quoting 816. ILwthrfan:



Yeah it almost looks like he is about to decouple. That LLC is about to get ejected to the SW I think.
The Low Level Center exposed a little .
Quoting 882. FyrtleMyrtle:

no my middle name is not curse, but having to go by my middle name is somewhat of a curse! every time i go to the doctors office they call me matt like they are cool with me or something...happens alot but i have over it through the years
Oh, ok. Thanks for straightening out the middle name thing. Do you think it would be ok if any of us referred to this storm as Matt?
So the earlier vortex message fixed the position at 14.11667 N 65.45 W, latest is 14.1833 N 65.8 W, isn't that roughly a bearing of ~281 degrees from the first point or just slightly north of west?
Before I leave, yes I watch even without commenting for days. My assessment using an old New England technique of Sheep Liver darts and more. I would say (ignoring other locations) Close enough to New England to feel something other than just waves. This would likely be the last dodge we have to worry about before a lot of leaves come down protecting at least some tree damage. This was a saving grace with the 50-55mph winds I felt with Sandy.
Quoting 885. gulfbreeze:

Why is there so big a difference on location some have it staying east of Florida for days and some have it in New England in 180 hrs?


Very difficult pattern, low confidence. The odds of any individual run being broadly correct are low.
No models develop the same until now. Probably Verde season is done.

Quoting 858. Loduck:

What about the wave behind Matthew that just rolled off Africa? It looks pretty healthy IMO...
Quoting 888. Gator13126:



Matthew related?


No, but if Matthew goes into New York, as some models indicate, you have to remember what Sandy did to the Hoboken Station. So indirectly, it would be related to Matthew.
And my oldest Daughter lives in Mass near the coast; may the trof and ridge Gods protect her also should Matthew ride up the Eastern Seaboard through record SSTs......................No Thank You.




Quoting 873. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

NHC admits to their track forecast being a high error margin. The models have flipped back and forth, but in large part have trended west from a few days ago (according to Levi the GFS has trended towards the Euro and not the other way around) with both models impacting Hispaniola. Hispanola looks like it may be in the clear now in terms of a direct hit. GFS shifted its ensembles back east overnight but that does not mean it could flip back with that many days remaining.




With such a complex set up the models and cone could very well have a lot or errors IMO the cone from day 3 onwards should be much much wider anyway I think we could see more W shift as time goes on more so if Matthew does indeed weaken for a while

Quoting 880. wunderweatherman123:

I think models are overestimating the current conditions. Trades, shear, and a bit of dry air. I still think Matthew won't become a major until turning north somewhere near Jamaica.


Yeah something like that

Quoting 889. HaoleboySurfEC:

PATH?....whoa boy. Not good.

Gro, think we may see a weaker system slide a little more west? That is my thinking. Very much think Jamaica may see direct impacts.




I think this just might indeed be the case

Quoting 890. Ed22:

The models have shifted back a little west towards Jamaica.


Will it continue I think it will more W they will go

Quoting 891. Gearsts:




Ouch
Not looking as great anymore
908. IDTH

As I pointed out yesterday, Shear is gonna be a problem soon.


looks due west to me
Quoting 896. MonsterTrough:


All in good fun WKC! Too many people have it out for ya. Keep on keepin on.

Weather: This cutoff low is sucking my soul of life in Cent Ind. Looks like mid January feels like late October. Lots of rain and some hail makers yesterday.

Matthew: The energy is there. The winds are there. The shear is also there. IMO, the biggest issue is speed. 16mph: gonna outrun the 'coverage' so to speak, every time.


Yeah

Quoting 897. Ed22:

The Low Level Center exposed a little .


A little is what I'd say about a few hrs ago

It is exposed and becoming even more exposed

Not looking good for Matthew right now
912. IKE
Matthew stripping in the Caribbean...

Quoting 904. Grothar:



No, but if Matthew goes into New York, as some models indicate, you have to remember what Sandy did to the Hoboken Station. So indirectly, it would be related to Matthew.


Now that's reaching.
914. IKE
Quoting 909. bigwes6844:

As I pointed out yesterday, Shear is gonna be a problem soon.



Shear getting to it now.
Quoting 908. IDTH:





Oh I'm very intrested to see what the models show then
Quoting 912. IKE:

Matthew stripping in the Caribbean...




aren't we used to this for the past decade xD
Quoting 914. IKE:



Shear getting to it now.


anticyclone left matthew...
Quoting 889. HaoleboySurfEC:

PATH?....whoa boy. Not good.

Gro, think we may see a weaker system slide a little more west? That is my thinking. Very much think Jamaica may see direct impacts.




This currently shows the little pathway which might move Matthew north. Now, if the low over the central US takes a dive further south and the ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic moves back west, yes, it could easily move a little more west.



If the low over the US retrogrades even slightly, it could make a big difference.

919. FOREX
Now that the GOM is out of play, it's time for the entire East Coast to begin preparing for a possible strike from a Major Hurricane.
920. IKE
Quoting 917. serialteg:



anticyclone left matthew...


Yeah I noticed that. Maybe it will get ripped to shreds.
Quoting 901. George1938:

Before I leave, yes I watch even without commenting for days. My assessment using an old New England technique of Sheep Liver darts and more. I would say (ignoring other locations) Close enough to New England to feel something other than just waves. This would likely be the last dodge we have to worry about before a lot of leaves come down protecting at least some tree damage. This was a saving grace with the 50-55mph winds I felt with Sandy.

The drought has left the trees weakened. Could be many trees down if we get strong winds.
Quoting 912. IKE:

Matthew stripping in the Caribbean...



Been telling everyone this is going further west because it'll be weaker. East central Caribbean not conducive for organization. It won't die because of vigorous circulation but old euro runs of the eps kept this no more than a 1 before the NW caribbean
Quoting 922. wunderweatherman123:


Been telling everyone this is going further west because it'll be weaker. East central Caribbean not conducive for organization. It won't die because of vigorous circulation but old euro runs of the eps kept this no more than a 1 before the NW caribbean


The official forecast from the NHC is for a west or just south of due west path until late Saturday into Sunday,
System is forecast to become a hurricane at 2am Friday morning. We'll see if that holds true or not.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 907. Grothar:


Whoa. Way "unstacked" at 700 mb compared to last eve when only the (increasing at that time) 200mb vorticity sat interpretation was slightly "off" and 850, 700 and 500 mb vorts were fairly well piled upon one another.

HAARP?
;)
926. IKE
Quoting 916. serialteg:



aren't we used to this for the past decade xD


Yes.
Yes, that is exactly right. Everyone is boo-hooing because Matthew is a little weaker and the structure is not as good as it was. However, that is not a good thing for the USA. The weaker he is right now, the more west the track will be.

Quoting 922. wunderweatherman123:


Been telling everyone this is going further west because it'll be weaker. East central Caribbean not conducive for organization. It won't die because of vigorous circulation but old euro runs of the eps kept this no more than a 1 before the NW caribbean
Quoting 907. Grothar:




Shear is definitely keeping Matthew from bombing out. Good thing for the Caribbean Islands in its path, for now.
929. IDTH

is florida and the GOM still a possible threat from matthew is it stay weaker and goes further west??
In Old San Juan is sunny and a little windy.
Quoting 919. FOREX:

Now that the GOM is out of play, it's time for the entire East Coast to begin preparing for a possible strike from a Major Hurricane.


Nah GOM could still be in play and should still be until Sat/Sun the latest IMO

Lost of uncertainties beyond the next 3 days
934. IDTH

935. Ed22
Quoting 824. Grothar:

A 42.3 miles shift west on the new run.


Remember one bloggers said he's not buying east passed now its forecast to move more towards "Jamaica".
Quoting 918. Grothar:



This currently shows the little pathway which might move Matthew north. Now, if the low over the central US takes a dive further south and the ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic moves back west, yes, it could easily move a little more west.



If the low over the US retrogrades even slightly, it could make a big difference.




Isn't that upper low forecast to fill and lift north/east? Forecasters here in ECFL think so, as cold front moving through the southeastern US is supposed to wash out over north FL and begin to lift back north in response to the weakening/lifting trough. At least that's what I was reading in this morning's AFD from the NWS Melbourne.

And because of this, I think that is why we are seeing the models continue to trend ever so slightly west. Either which way, I am expecting, based of current model projections, windy conditions next week, with a very high surf event and dangerous rip currents... at the least. And because it will be a northerly wind flow based off the position of Matthew, probably some cooler/drier weather as well.
seems like you get labeled a wishcaster if you state that the GOM is still in play. I've been maintaining that for a few days now, and yes, could very much be wrong on that aspect. I just think it is foolish to eliminate that possibility especially if this storm remains weaker than forecasted over the next day or so which is a possibility (considering even the NHC does not show strengthening in the interim)


Quoting 933. wunderkidcayman:



Nah GOM could still be in play and should still be until Sat/Sun the latest IMO

Lost of uncertainties beyond the next 3 days
Quoting 933. wunderkidcayman:



Nah GOM could still be in play and should still be until Sat/Sun the latest IMO

Lost of uncertainties beyond the next 3 days


sheer is indeed affecting him now
Quoting 907. Grothar:



Whoa again. I wrote a reply to this 700 mb vort graphic at 926. Then I went to CIMSS and looked. Same time, same station, different pic... ???
We can only hope this starts to get sheared to death!!
So confused? Is it east, west, left, right?

Let's wait 24 hours for more data

Up up down down left right left right B A B A
select start

30 extra lives!!!
Quoting 937. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

seems like you get labeled a wishcaster if you state that the GOM is still in play.
I've never found that to be the case. What makes a person a "wishcaster" is ignoring models, forecasts, or pieces of evidence that disagree with one's hopes or dreams, while simultaneously latching tightly onto and exaggerating only those tiny bits of data that don't.
Quoting 937. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

seems like you get labeled a wishcaster if you state that the GOM is still in play. I've been maintaining that for a few days now, and yes, could very much be wrong on that aspect. I just think it is foolish to eliminate that possibility especially if this storm remains weaker than forecasted over the next day or so which is a possibility (considering even the NHC does not show strengthening in the interim)





GOM is in play up until it makes the notherly turn. Earl was "supposed" to turn and plowed west into Mexico. Hemine was forecast for east of FL, ended up in gulf.

Strength is a key factor in the equation, Matthew is forecast to be a major but shear is keeping him at bay. Shear has been an issue all season, so until conditions improve and Matthew strengthens, the futher west it shall go.