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Matthew Raking Bahamas; Could Be First Major Hurricane for Florida’s Space Coast

By: Bob Henson 10:34 PM GMT on October 05, 2016

Hurricane Warnings are in place along much of Florida’s Atlantic coastline, where Category 3 Hurricane Matthew is expected to trace a grinding path on or very close to shore on Friday. As of the 5 pm EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Matthew was located about 400 miles southeast of West Palm Beach, FL, moving northwest at 12 mph. After weakening during its passage over Cuba, Matthew is gradually regaining its strength over the near-record-warm waters of The Bahamas, where sea surface temperatures of 29-30°C (84-86°F) are more than 1°C above average. A Hurricane Hunter flight observed 106-knot (122-mph) surface winds on Wednesday morning, and with little change in the storm’s overall structure since then, NHC estimated Matthew’s top sustained winds at 120 mph in the 5 pm advisory.

Matthew is already a large storm, with hurricane-force winds extending 45 miles from its center and tropical-storm-force extending out to 175 miles. Matthew’s wind field may expand further in the next several days as the hurricane matures. A Hurricane Hunter flight late Wednesday afternoon was finding Category 2 winds. Satellite imagery late Wednesday afternoon showed intense “hot towers” of thunderstorm activity beginning to develop around Matthew’s eye. Outflow channels extended southward and northward near the top of the storm, although weaker than the channels that supported Matthew’s growth to Category 5 strength in the Caribbean. Overall, Matthew could dip slightly in strength tonight before the reorganization now in process provides a chance for restrengthening on Thursday. The 18Z Wednesday SHIPS model forecast gave a 9% chance that Matthew would intensify enough to become a Category 5 storm again by Thursday afternoon.

The take-home message: it still appears likely that Matthew will approach Florida early Friday as a major hurricane. A Hurricane Warning was in effect late Wednesday from Broward County, FL, to the Flagler/Volisua county line (including the Orlando area and Lake Okeechobee), with a Hurricane Watch extending further northward to the Savannah River, including all of the Georgia coast. A Tropical Storm Warning covers much of far South Florida, including the Miami area. See the NHC update for a full rundown on warnings and watches.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Matthew from 5:15 pm EDT Wednesday, October 5, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Conditions are easing in Greater Antilles, worsening in Bahamas
Matthew’s outer rainbands were still strafing Haiti, Jamaica, and much of eastern Cuba late Wednesday, but the strongest winds had moved north, out of the area. Matthew’s thread-the-needle track included only brief spells over the westernmost tip of Haiti and extreme eastern Cuba. This land-avoiding track allowed the hurricane to move into The Bahamas with its structure largely intact, but it also greatly limited the extent of strong winds over the Greater Antilles. Satellite data showed that rainfall has been intense over many areas, although surface reports are limited. Thus far, at least 25 deaths have been attributed to Matthew, according to weather.com. We can only hope these numbers stay relatively low, although they will undoubtedly rise as more damage reports come in. See the embedded video at bottom for a sense of Matthew’s rampage over eastern Cuba.

Especially if Matthew strengthens, it could bring vicious winds well above hurricane force to several Bahamian islands, depending on its exact track. Torrential rains will also plague the islands. The biggest concern for the Bahamas is storm surge, which could reach 10 to 15 feet along and east of Matthew’s track. Wunderground member ExumaMET sent this update from the southeast Bahamas early Wednesday afternoon: “Reporting in from little Exuma at the very South East of the chain. I'm able to still get cell data but we're getting frequent hurricane force gusts and the recent more NNW move I've seen on satellite is troubling and I hope not a trend. I live on high ground but I do fear for a lot of those living on the south side in particular a large settlement called Moss Town.”

Central and northern Florida bracing for a historic hurricane hit
An unusual confluence of ingredients is in place that may bring hurricane conditions to the Atlantic coast of northern Florida and Georgia, a place where major hurricane landfalls (Category 3 or stronger) are surprisingly uncommon, especially this late in the season. When Florida does get hurricanes in October, they almost always move northeast from the Gulf of Mexico and strike the Gulf Coast, rather than moving west or northwest from the Atlantic.

Thoughout the year as well, major landfalls seldom occur here, as shown in Figure 3. This may partly be a matter of dumb luck, but it’s also because the shape of the Florida coast here—angling from southeast to northwest—reduces the odds of a direct hit. The only hurricane known to have made landfall in Florida north of Port St. Lucie while maintaining Category 3 strength is Dora, which arrived with 125-mph sustained winds near St. Augustine in September 1964. It’s actually more common for hurricanes to strike the northern half of Florida’s coast after having traveled across the state—as was the case with Donna (1960) and Charley (2004), both of which entered the Atlantic just north of Palm Coast. The most recent major hurricane along the Georgia coast was in 1898.


Figure 2. Tracks of all hurricanes since 1851 that are known to have passed within 175 nautical miles miles (the shaded circle) while at Category 3 or stronger intensity. Image credit: NOAA.


FIgure 3. The official NHC forecast for Matthew as of 5 pm EDT Wednesday, October 5, 2016.

An unusual threat for the coast from central Florida to Georgia
The latest tracking map from NHC, shown above, depicts a Category Four hurricane centered just north of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC, in Titusville, FL) at 2:00 pm EDT Friday. If Matthew does move along the coast or just inland, it could bring severe hurricane conditions to a heavily populated coastal region that’s had precious little experience with such a storm. Hurricanes Jeanne and Frances (2004) caused billions in damage as they moved from the Atlantic onto the central Florida coast, and Matthew may be stronger than either of them as it nears the coast. Even though winds near KSC were only in the neighborhood of minimal hurricane strength, Frances inflicted an estimated $100 million in damage to the area’s space and military operations.

In 1979, Hurricane David (1979) ground its way up the central and northern Florida and Georgia coastlines along a track similar to that expected with Matthew. David produced hundreds of millions in damage, even though it was only at Category 1 strength during its Florida/Georgia trek. Even if Matthew reaches Florida as a major hurricane, we can expect it to weaken during the course of Friday and Friday night as it works its way northward along or near the coast.


Figure 4. Hurricane Frances brought sustained winds of 70 mph, gusting to 94 mph, to the Kennedy Space Center, and ripped 820 panels off of the gargantuan 525-foot tall Vehicle Assembly Building (shown above). The Space Center suffered millions in damage, including heavy damage to the Thermal Protection System Facility and the Processing Control Center. Two weeks later, Category 3 Hurricane Jeanne made landfall very close to where Frances did, and took 30 more panels off the Vehicle Assembly Building. According to NASA documents, the building was designed to withstand winds of 114 miles per hour—what a weak Category 3 storm would deliver. Image credit: NASA.

An excruciating track for the Southeast U.S.
Our top track models differ on the exact location of Matthew over the next several days, but they agree that Matthew will be heading on a concave track from Florida to the Carolinas that will largely duplicate the concave outline of the Southeast U.S. This makes for an extremely challenging forecast, especially from a public-safety point of view. NHC has put it very nicely in their key-message summaries for Matthew:

“When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and Georgia.”

Main threat for the Carolinas: water
Regardless of whether Matthew hugs the coast or not, it will deliver a significant storm-surge threat, especially toward the Georgia coast. NHC projects that coastal inundation (water level above ground) could reach the following levels at high tide:

Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River...5 to 8 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 2 ft


Figure 5. Areas of flooding expected to result from typical hurricanes of various strengths over Chatham County, Georgia. Even a Category 1 strike (4-11 foot inundation) is capable of producing extensive flooding across the county, including all of Tybee Island, where officials are urging that residents evacuate. Image credit: Chatham County Emergency Management

The latest model guidance (12Z Wednesday) suggests that Matthew will be arcing away from the Southeast coast as it approaches the Carolinas. This is very good news from the standpoint of high wind, but it does not eliminate the risk of very heavy rain and at least some coastal flooding for the Carolinas. The NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center is projecting 6” to 10” of rain along and near the coast from central Florida to extreme southern North Carolina. If Matthew’s arc away from shore holds up, the risk of major flooding over saturated ground from eastern North Carolina northward will be greatly reduced.

Will Matthew do the loop-de-loop?
The 12Z Wednesday suite of computer models points toward a result that seemed preposterous just days ago: Matthew may well carry out a clockwise (right-hand) loop off the Southeast coast and head back toward Florida early next week. If so, it would likely be in a much-weakened state, heading over waters it churned up. The European model has pulled back from its enthusiasm for this idea, while the GFS is more bullish. Only 8% of the 50 Euro ensemble members from 12Z Wednesday, but about half of the 20 GFS ensemble members from 18Z Wednesday, carry out tracks that bring Matthew across Florida or Cuba next week and into the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean. The loop-de-loop back to Florida thus remains possible, but we’ll have to give the models several more days to work out these possibilities.

Links
Meteorologist Steve Gregory is making regular updates on Matthew.
Rapid-scan 7-minute time resolution loop of Matthew from NASA/MSFC

Webcams:
Bahama/Port Nassau:: http://www.portnassauwebcam.com/
Ft. Lauderdale: http://www.ftlauderdalewebcam.com/
Port Canaveral: http://www.portcanaveralwebcam.com/

Tropical Storm Nicole no threat
Tropical Storm Nicole, the fourteenth named storm of this busy 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, is not expected to be a threat to any land areas as it meanders in a circle over the central Atlantic over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows Nicole is a small storm with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows increasing wind shear for Nicole over the weekend, which should weaken the storm.

I'll be back with an update on Matthew between 11 PM and midnight tonight. Jeff Masters and I will be posting 2 to 3 updates a day while Matthew remains a significant threat.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Figure 6. The 50 forecasts from the 12Z Wednesday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (left) and the 20 forecasts from the 18Z Wednesday GFS model ensemble (right). Ensemble model runs are produced by running the same model for the same timeslice a number of times, with the starting-point conditions for each run varied randomly in order to mimic the uncertainty in our observations of the atmosphere. This produces a better sense of the future uncertainty in a given forecast. Image credit: Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).




Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments



Recon is headed toward the NE eyewall, should be an interesting pass.
1002. IDTH
Quoting 1000. jordan1tylerr:

Guys IDTH is posting results from Dvorak analysis..

Yes I am.
1003. IKE
I wouldn't stay on a barrier island with Matthew. You should leave Chicklit.
Thanks SF and good to see ya! Been a long time.
Get away from the Florida coast Broward Northward! Its not looking good. This is a notoious location for these storms to explode, Matthew is trying to do the same.
I think it'd be smart for the NHC to extend the hurricane warning southward to Miami-Dade. People need to realize that they aren't off the hook by any means. There's still a very real chance we could see hurricane-force winds in the northern portions of the county.
Quoting 982. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




maybe u should leave please

Yes. Thin islands not good. They have washovers, The surge height is bad in hurricanes alone, then there is waves.
1008. Michfan
1009. nash36
F5 buttons are SMOKIN'!!!!!!
1010. Zaphod
Dvorak up to 6.1 from 5.6 earlier today. Matthew is clearly strengthening.

I've wondered if distance from mountains of Cuba hasn't been a key aspect of building a broader windfield. It will be interesting to see if an EWRC will start soon. The sooner the worse for FL I think - best case would be for landfall during replacement?

I don't known much about annular hurricanes. Could Matt become one?
Quoting 1001. SavannahStorm:



Recon is headed toward the NE eyewall, should be an interesting pass.
My bet is pressure will be 957 mb, anyone else want to place any?
Exuma International reported a gust of 144 mph

Last report
Quoting 986. bocahurricane:

I am in west Boynton too! West of the turnpike



Which Canyon? LOL
Eerily quiet here in Lauderdale by the Sea, looking at the pictures of Matthew I'm starting to feel like an idiot for not heading west, I'm practically the only person on the street..... Scary
Quoting 1003. IKE:

I wouldn't stay on a barrier island with Matthew. You should leave Chicklit.


Wait, how'd I miss that she is on a barrier island? This makes me unhappy chicklit!
Quoting 1003. IKE:

I wouldn't stay on a barrier island with Matthew. You should leave Chicklit.


Are they covered with dunes like the OBX? If its anything like Fernandina then I'd leave. Not much stopping that water.
If a storm goes into the gulf, will it explosively develop this late into the season, SST's are still pretty high but the GFS run doesnt have matthew intensify after entering the gulf, just curious
1018. sigh
Quoting 989. RitaEvac:

Preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion. Severe impacts over a large multi state area is likely with human suffering significant by modern standards and widespread and long lasting disruption of commerce and travel is under way for FL and possibly areas north.

Extensive damage to even strongly built structures and some structures will completely fail. All mobile homes will be completely destroyed and most trees will be snapped or uprooted. Widespread significant roof damage is likely with some complete roof and wall failures. Some structures will be uninhabitable for weeks if not longer.



What are you quoting here?
1019. MZT
Quoting 992. kmanislander:


You couldn't pay me to stay on a barrier island.

Bolivar peninsula. How can anyone stay on a barrier island during a hurricane, knowing this can happen?
Quoting 982. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




maybe u should leave please


the original is a lot better



:P
1021. smuldy
Quoting 1006. MiamiHurricanes09:

I think it'd be smart for the NHC to extend the hurricane warning southward to Miami-Dade. People need to realize that they aren't off the hook by any means. There's still a very real chance we could see hurricane-force winds in the northern portions of the county.
I'm in North Bay Village and expecting them but I think many aren't.
Looks sadly like the US's major hurricane drought will come to an end Friday-Saturday
1023. Dzstr
000
WTNT24 KNHC 060251
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
0300 UTC THU OCT 06 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA
COUNTY LINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH...FLORIDA.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO EDISTO
BEACH...SOUTH CAROLINA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...EXUMA...RUM CAY...
SAN SALVADOR...AND CAT ISLAND
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...
BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND
NEW PROVIDENCE
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO GOLDEN BEACH
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD
* FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO SUWANNEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND IN THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 76.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 76.4W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.6N 77.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.4N 79.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.2N 80.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.1N 81.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 32.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 76.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Exuma Int'l reported 119 mph sustained before going offline, expect this to go up to 120 mph during this advisory
Quoting 1014. Camerooski:

Eerily quiet here in Lauderdale by the Sea, looking at the pictures of Matthew I'm starting to feel like an idiot for not heading west, I'm practically the only person on the street..... Scary
Calm before the storm, brother. You should have headed inland. I hope your house is a very sturdy structure.
1027. jeebsa
Im gonna ride this out on tbe Treasure Coast I will send pics and updates when I can. Be Safe
Quoting 1014. Camerooski:

Eerily quiet here in Lauderdale by the Sea, looking at the pictures of Matthew I'm starting to feel like an idiot for not heading west, I'm practically the only person on the street..... Scary


You can still leave. Go now.
1029. Grothar
Quoting 963. Jedkins01:



As I'm sure you know me well enough to know that I'm not a hype machine, but I'm really concerned that Matthew could deepen significantly between now and approaching the FL coast. Conditions for strengthening are approaching an ideal case.



I said don't say it!!!!!!!!!!!
1030. nash36
Ummmm....

The NHC has not changed....well....anything at 11pm.

Guess they need a little more time for the data to bleed down.

NW@10
951MB
115mph
Business as usual here in Pasco County.. No lines for the normal supply of fuel.. Stores had plenty of everything.. Wonder if that will change if they upgrade us to a warning tomorrow? No better time to freak out..

I noted that Hurrevac is plotting the edge of the TS wind field to within spitting distance of me, so I've prepared for any westward wobble.
Quoting 1018. sigh:


What are you quoting here?


Means GET OUT
Quoting 992. kmanislander:



You couldn't pay me to stay on a barrier island. Ivan pushed 5 feet of water into my home 500 feet back from the coast.
My floor level is 7 feet above sea level and the only thing that prevented a higher surge is that all around this island is very deep water so no continental shelf to pile it up.
I agree 100 percent Kman. went through Floyd on Great Guana Cay and the same result 150- mph winds gusts to 200 and minimal surge on the out islands...7 -10 feet in marsh Harnour on Great Abaco. Water goes around. That same storm in Florida...No way I'm staying.
Live in Daytona beach on intracoastal..how much surge on river..brother wants me in Deland which is only 21 miles away. Would that make a difference?
1036. Drakoen
People are riding out a category 4 hurricane on the Treasure Coast?
Quoting 965. WeatherkidJoe2323:

starting to remind me of something from 1992....


I'm betting that something begins with an A.

Quoting 1001. SavannahStorm:



Recon is headed toward the NE eyewall, should be an interesting pass.

Don't think they'll make it into eye before 11.
Quoting 1019. MZT:


Bolivar peninsula. How can anyone stay on a barrier island during a hurricane, knowing this can happen?



The insurance on a barrier island must be brutal.
1040. Prouss
NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic 4m4 minutes ago
Hurricane #Matthew advisory 32 issued. Eye of #Matthew moving near the central bahamas http://go.usa.gov/W3H


Link
Quoting 1036. Drakoen:

People are riding out a category 4 hurricane on the Treasure Coast?


NE coast can't be much better..
1042. IMA
Quoting 883. Chicklit:


I am on a barrier island just north of Canaveral.
It is going to be rough here, but people have their reasons for staying and are willing to suffer the consequences.


Chicklit, do you have pets? It's been years, but if I remember correctly you don't have young children. I think anyone who stays on a barrier island with this knocking on their door who has kids (any WU old-timers like me remember the guy in LA who was riding out on his houseboat with umpteen kids?) or even pets doesn't deserve to be able to keep them after the storm. Sorry, but in the aftermath of Ike I saw what happened to so many pets people left or were torn away from in the surge. It infuriates me.
Quoting 1022. masiello3:

Looks sadly like the US's major hurricane drought will come to an end Friday-Saturday
Yeah I know 4001 days later, hard to believe we went this long.
1045. tj175
Wow Matthew is looking great tonight and the wobbles to the west are very worrisome. Located here in Dania Beach right off Griffin rd and just getting home from getting the last few items before he pays us a visit. I hope all of my fellow Floridians are prepared because its been a while.

Quoting 970. Starhopper:

R click/view image for full screen...

wow. definitely on the southwest side of the cone from a day ago.  southern florida may be shocked tomorrow morning when they wake up.  a monster that is sitting just off the doorstep and on the way.

Quoting 1037. listenerVT:



I'm betting that something begins with an A.


Kind of freaky that both are named after apostles fom the bible they are supposed to be good!
Quoting 976. IDTH:

Sorry, I like to update this a lot.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 OCT 2016 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 23:05:05 N Lon : 76:17:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 940.8mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.6 6.6


Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -50.7C Cloud Region Temp : -75.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 105km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.0 degrees


That pressure is quite a bit off from what recon is reporting.
Curious, who decides the watches and warnings? State gov't? NHC recommendation to county leaders? What's the structure?

The idea that Dade County isn't under a Hurricane Watch concurrently with the TS Warning is irresponsible on whoever's behalf.
Quoting 1044. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Reminds me of 8/24/92
What are we supposed to do, We live in the space coast, but my dad's job requires him to be ready to play relief of Friday and saturday
1052. HrDelta
Quoting 984. masiello3:

I'm young and don't knew all the in and outs, can you explain to me what this is showing?


Really brief answer:

The presentation of the storm shows that it is starting to gain strength rapidly. If 120 knots is correct, it is back to Cat 4.
1053. IMA
Quoting 1019. MZT:


Bolivar peninsula. How can anyone stay on a barrier island during a hurricane, knowing this can happen?


I was there doing animal rescue days after the storm. It still makes me cry when I see pictures.
Quoting 1011. masiello3:

My bet is pressure will be 957 mb, anyone else want to place any?


That is probably too much of a drop that quickly. At most I would estimate two mbs, say 959 ?.
Quoting 1035. centrfla:

Live in Daytona beach on intracoastal..how much surge on river..brother wants me in Deland which is only 21 miles away. Would that make a difference?


Yes!
1057. HrDelta
Quoting 1036. Drakoen:

People are riding out a category 4 hurricane on the Treasure Coast?


Who the hell is insane enough to even think of doing that?!
1058. Melagoo
Mathew looks like he is strengthening fast ...

Quoting 963. Jedkins01:



As I'm sure you know me well enough to know that I'm not a hype machine, but I'm really concerned that Matthew could deepen significantly between now and approaching the FL coast. Conditions for strengthening are approaching an ideal case.

I'm not really a hype person either, Jed. But this is starting to look BAD in the 24-48 hr range.

I hope we are ready.
Quoting 1044. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




This seems less than ideal
1061. miamivu
Quoting 955. efallon28:

I know I posted this during Hermine, but I'll post it again. This is the local weather radar for one of our TV stations here in Ft Myers. If you scroll down past the 7 day forecast, you'll see a Doppler radar. It's part of some sort of national Doppler system. You can zoom in and out, scroll around, and even make the radar a full page screen.

You can see the NW side of Matthew coming into view as it barrels through the Bahamas. Best part is it is in real time. Hope some people find it useful.

Link
Thanks...very nice interface...you can see an outer feeder band rotating through Nassau atm...will be fun to watch until we lose power tomorrow...
Quoting 1055. FLHurricaneHunter:

Another "-DREW" storm?


Matthew and Andrew are "ew" storms...
NHC - No change
Anyone shed some light on the models? Any change?
Yes!
Quoting 1035. centrfla:

Live in Daytona beach on intracoastal..how much surge on river..brother wants me in Deland which is only 21 miles away. Would that make a difference?
1065. RM706
My iPhone is suddenly screaming at me. I thought it was an Amber alert but instead it says I'm now under a Hurricane Warning. Anyone have any supporting data I can post about this change? Jacksonville Westside here...
Quoting 1035. centrfla:

Live in Daytona beach on intracoastal..how much surge on river..brother wants me in Deland which is only 21 miles away. Would that make a difference?
Yes. Get out now!
1067. beell
Slapped together this afternoon. 500 mb heights in (decameters) from Global Hawk and a few from Gonzo.

Nuttin' but ridge to the east. Lower heights towards the bottom-center of the frame are more a result of proximity to the storm at that time-not a weakness.


(click for larger image)
Someone I know who lives in Florida around Port Orange evacuated to (wait for it) Smyrna of all places.
Quoting 1049. ScooterXX7:

Curious, who decides the watches and warnings? State gov't? NHC recommendation to county leaders? What's the structure?

The idea that Dade County isn't under a Hurricane Watch concurrently with the TS Warning is irresponsible on whoever's behalf.

The NHC issues tropical watches and warnings.
1071. Michfan
Quoting 1036. Drakoen:

People are riding out a category 4 hurricane on the Treasure Coast?


Stupidly yes.

8pm.. this is newer
Quoting 1035. centrfla:

Live in Daytona beach on intracoastal..how much surge on river..brother wants me in Deland which is only 21 miles away. Would that make a difference?
Yes! Please! go to Deland, you are much safer there and away from the water, which is the number one killer in hurricanes.
Quoting 1060. UpperLevelLOL:



This seems less than ideal
the look on the governors face must be priceless
Quoting 1039. FunnelVortex:



The insurance on a barrier island must be brutal.

as far as tidal surge the flood coverage has to be outsourced to international carriers (alien carriers) that are very expensive compared to NFIP policies.  the COBRA act grandfathered pre-existent NFIP covered structures, but denied writing any new policies. 

on another note south florida is staring at a monster.  coming in very low. cone may shift west again. CoC is scary as all get out.  current conditions are going to allow r.i. to continue through dmax tonight.  this is a very very bad scenario.  matthew wont go into the gulf, but he may swath right up the spine of the peninsula or just east of the spine of florida, but this could affect 10's of millions of people before all is said and done.
Quoting 1014. Camerooski:

Eerily quiet here in Lauderdale by the Sea, looking at the pictures of Matthew I'm starting to feel like an idiot for not heading west, I'm practically the only person on the street..... Scary


Later...early this morning around 2 AM or 3 AM...you might hear Matthew. It will sound like airplane sorties taking off. It is the sound of the storm reflecting off of the atmosphere.
Quoting 1006. MiamiHurricanes09:

I think it'd be smart for the NHC to extend the hurricane warning southward to Miami-Dade. People need to realize that they aren't off the hook by any means. There's still a very real chance we could see hurricane-force winds in the northern portions of the county.


The NHC track puts the Tropical Storm/Strong Tropical Storm wind field border right at the Miami-Dade/Broward border - meaning that Miami-Dade isn't forecast to receive higher than 50kt winds currently. The 50-64kt field is 30mi or so, so it would need to wobble 30mi westward to get Miami-Dade on the border of hurricane force winds.

Just to reiterate - this is what I am seeing and measuring based on the forecast track alone, and is as official as I am - which is to say, not.
Quoting 1030. nash36:

Ummmm....

The NHC has not changed....well....anything at 11pm.

Guess they need a little more time for the data to bleed down.

NW@10
951MB
115mph

Extended the hurricane warnings
1079. mrjr101
Quoting 1061. miamivu:



Wow, that's a wonderful radar. Thank you.
1080. Grothar
Quoting 963. Jedkins01:



As I'm sure you know me well enough to know that I'm not a hype machine, but I'm really concerned that Matthew could deepen significantly between now and approaching the FL coast. Conditions for strengthening are approaching an ideal case.


I know Jed's. You never hype. But honestly, I haven't seen a storm quit like this one. Notice the symmetry getting better on each run.
Quoting 1067. beell:

Slapped together this afternoon. 500 mb heights in (decameters) from Global Hawk and a few from Gonzo.

Nuttin' but ridge to the east. Lower heights towards the bottom right of the frame are more a result of proximity to the storm at that time-not a weakness.



odds are higher for a landfall rather than a scrape?
Still 90kts.

030030 2330N 07614W 6963 02840 9683 +125 +125 118080 090 089 026 00

Might be a problem with the SFMR given that we're seeing far stronger wind reports in the islands.
1083. Kumo
Quoting 1027. jeebsa:

Im gonna ride this out on tbe Treasure Coast I will send pics and updates when I can. Be Safe


Bad idea. If I were you I'd get out while I can. Never been in a major, but from video that I have seen of them, I don't want to be at ground zero when one of those hits.
1084. Kevin77
Quoting 1065. RM706:

My iPhone is suddenly screaming at me. I thought it was an Amber alert but instead it says I'm now under a Hurricane Warning. Anyone have any supporting data I can post about this change? Jacksonville Westside here...


Yes, the NHC just extended the hurricane warning northward.
If Nicole becomes a hurricane, then the guy who claimed to have found a secret signature on systems and predicted Nicole to become a hurricane, may be onto something.
Quoting 1036. Drakoen:

People are riding out a category 4 hurricane on the Treasure Coast?


Kori and Isaac (wxchaser97) are chasing Matthew. Perhaps I should ask where.

----

@blog, if y'all want, I'll try to keep communications with them. Isaac is pretty excited, Kori said "After Hermine, Matthew is the next on my hit list". Jed, if you're still on, Isaac mentioned you. What are you doing?
Unfortunately it may be too late :( you cant evac the barrier islands or shutter a 3000 sq ft house in that time unless you have accordian.

Quoting 1006. MiamiHurricanes09:

I think it'd be smart for the NHC to extend the hurricane warning southward to Miami-Dade. People need to realize that they aren't off the hook by any means. There's still a very real chance we could see hurricane-force winds in the northern portions of the county.
Anymore wobbles to the west and I'm gonna need to get into my parent's alcohol cabinet. My God.
Quoting 1011. masiello3:

My bet is pressure will be 957 mb, anyone else want to place any?

Imma bet 938 mb, its already at 961, 957 is way too low, it has so much room left before landfall
Quoting 1077. JoeInTampa:



The NHC track puts the Tropical Storm/Strong Tropical Storm wind field border right at the Miami-Dade/Broward border - meaning that Miami-Dade isn't forecast to receive higher than 50kt winds currently. The 50-64kt field is 30mi or so, so it would need to wobble 30mi westward to get Miami-Dade on the border of hurricane force winds.

Just to reiterate - this is what I am seeing and measuring based on the forecast track alone, and is as official as I am - which is to say, not.

I understand that the forecast currently does not call for hurricane force winds to cross over into Dade, but should we really be putting that much faith into a 30 mile spread?
1091. IDTH
Springs! U?

Quoting 1013. notmaxmayfield:


Which Canyon? LOL
New track is out by the NHC, showing Matthew as a tropical storm by Monday night. When was the last time a cyclone attained hurricane status for twelve consecutive days?
Link
When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are
possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and
Georgia.
1095. Melagoo


... trying to be a CAT 4 again ...
Quoting 1035. centrfla:

Live in Daytona beach on intracoastal..how much surge on river..brother wants me in Deland which is only 21 miles away. Would that make a difference?


Yes, it would.
Quoting 1065. RM706:

My iPhone is suddenly screaming at me. I thought it was an Amber alert but instead it says I'm now under a Hurricane Warning. Anyone have any supporting data I can post about this change? Jacksonville Westside here...
They extended the warning up to Fernandina Beach
The NHC notes their track is slightly west of the models...
1099. hmroe
Quoting 1090. MiamiHurricanes09:

I understand that the forecast currently does not call for hurricane force winds to cross over into Dade, but should we really be putting that much faith into a 30 mile spread?


There is already a margin of error built in to the cone.
Link
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS (11pm)

INIT 06/0300Z 23.4N 76.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 24.6N 77.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 26.4N 79.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 28.2N 80.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 30.1N 81.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 32.5N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 32.0N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 30.5N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
A couple from Shell Beach, La evacuated to nearby Chalmette before Katrina and ended up on the roof.......its a pretty famous video.
Not looking forward to what Matthew will look like tomorrow. Will stay up until the next recon pass, then off to bed. Good luck to all those in the path of Matthew, I hope he ends up being more bark than bite and that you're all fully prepared! Sending my positive vibes to you all from across the Atlantic!
Quoting 1035. centrfla:

Live in Daytona beach on intracoastal..how much surge on river..brother wants me in Deland which is only 21 miles away. Would that make a difference?


Don't know you area, but NHC has your back.
Potential Storm Surge Flooding
1104. hmroe
Quoting 1098. Jedkins01:

The NHC notes their track is slightly west of the models...


And it is still 30 miles off coast.
..Now we await 0Z..
Quoting 1036. Drakoen:

People are riding out a category 4 hurricane on the Treasure Coast?


Nowhere else to go. I'm in Port Saint Lucie, we put the shutters up, cleared the outside. My whole neighboorhood is staying. Lost my dad and grandfather this year, it's me and my two younger brothers and mother. I'm scared big time, we went through Jeanne, Frances and Wilma.
Quoting 1098. Jedkins01:

The NHC notes their track is slightly west of the models...
I wonder if they're anticipating a shift in 00z models tonight? Also, I've always wondered if they get the model outputs before the public does?
115/961/ aimed @320 11pm
1109. MZT
Quoting 1093. KoopaKid17:

New track is out by the NHC

They've got it slicing right up through Cape Canaveral. 50% odds it could be inland or offshore, for a long stretch of the Atlantic coast of FLA. Those are not the kind of odds to ride it out, IMHO.
Quoting 1084. Kevin77:



Yes, the NHC just extended the hurricane warning northward.


Northward?! Oh no. No no no no. Maybe later, but something feels wrong here. :/ It is time to extend it south, even out of an abundance of precaution. Please.
Quoting 1019. MZT:


Bolivar peninsula. How can anyone stay on a barrier island during a hurricane, knowing this can happen?



This was Galveston after Cat 2 IKE. The Bolivar Peninsula was nothing but mud. I was there with the Red Cross. It wasn't the wind, it was the storm surge that leveled the peninsula.
Quoting 992. kmanislander:



You couldn't pay me to stay on a barrier island. Ivan pushed 5 feet of water into my home 500 feet back from the coast.
My floor level is 7 feet above sea level and the only thing that prevented a higher surge is that all around this island is very deep water so no continental shelf to pile it up.


Ivan washed over Santa Rosa Island as well. I believe our local EMS put out a statement before the storm that if you were not out by a certain time, they were standing down until it was safe to begin recovery efforts. I get that some want to stay and earn their "I survived Matthew" badge, or whatever. But it would be nice if some folks would stop and consider that their decision impacts others. Mostly, someone's son, daughter, mother, father, sister, brother, that has to come rescue you in dangerous conditions. That is the height of selfishness, IMO, but it's a free country, so....
Quoting 1060. UpperLevelLOL:



This seems less than ideal


That's an understatement. I think the NHC may need to extend the hurricane warning to Homestead just as a precaution tomorrow morning, unless the storm shifts to the right overnight.
Quoting 1036. Drakoen:

People are riding out a category 4 hurricane on the Treasure Coast?
Tens of millions of people in the potential landfall area is riding this out. I just hope they at least aren't close to the ocean.
ok...going to bed....lots to do tomorrow.... last run to ck all jobs and make sure they are secured... will make decision from there...
1117. rxse7en
Local Met here in Jax just said that we can expect 70+mph sustained winds right here around Jax Beach. TWC saying we can see 125+mph sustained. That's a big friggin' difference. I'm thinking local was looking at the 8pm update that had the system moving offshore and TWC is basing it on the NHC 11pm update that it's going to be sitting on our coast.

Sigh.
Quoting 1104. hmroe:



And it is still 30 miles off coast.


latest track has it 12 miles off the coast
Quoting 1044. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




I think with all of the fresh faces here this week, it may be wise to note when you are posting a forecast or a model rather than a real time update. Not everyone will know the difference.
Quoting 1025. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Calm before the storm, brother. You should have headed inland. I hope your house is a very sturdy structure.


Maybe, however I planned to leave Miami for Fort Myers because I have a relative in an assisted living facility there. Since work is closed until Monday, I thought I could enjoy a quick visit and enjoy A/C for a little while longer. However, when I looked for hotel rooms last night at 5pm (pet friendly), I could not find one single hotel with a room available from Naples to Tampa.

Sometimes it is not possible to leave if you are not able to reserve a place to go. There are an unprecedented number of people evacuating hundreds of miles of coastline for this event. There are not enough hotel rooms available for everyone who wants one away from Matthew's wind field effects.
1121. HrDelta
Quoting 1096. animalrsq:



Yes, it would.


Deland is well inland, and not surge vulnerable. The St. Johns River is 2-3 miles away, but Deland is much, much safer than Daytona Beach.

My grandparents have shuttered up their house in Deltona.
Quoting 1028. FunnelVortex:



You can still leave. Go now.

Its when your looking away from the sea and behind you to see your escape route cut off is when your kick yourself for not leaving. Not a damned material thing in this world worth as much as your life. If you had a son or daughter what advice would you give them?
Quoting 1052. HrDelta:



Really brief answer:

The presentation of the storm shows that it is starting to gain strength rapidly. If 120 knots is correct, it is back to Cat 4.

A bit more so you can have some understanding...Dvorak technique is an post processing of the ir satellite data based on a "set of rules.". This set of rules is an algorithm that has storm parameters and metrics as its output.

That should give some good keywords if you want to google some more info.
In all of this calamity, it is sad not to see posts or hear from Rand. :(
Okay guys I'm gonna get some sleep. Gonna be a long day tomorrow!
looks kinda like the grim reaper too me don't underestimate the power of nature

Quoting 1063. LawBoy80:

NHC - No change
Anyone shed some light on the models? Any change?
Look at the storm on radar, you don't need a model. This is ugly whether it goes in to the lake, or turns up the coast.
MOVING WNW, again. Wobble? or pattern? Cuba radar shows it best.
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTIL LAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/NacComp200Km.gif
Blog is lagging again...or, no one has posted anything in the last 10 minutes. Somehow I doubt that. To be expected I guess.
Quoting 1090. MiamiHurricanes09:

I understand that the forecast currently does not call for hurricane force winds to cross over into Dade, but should we really be putting that much faith into a 30 mile spread?


I've got nothing. I guess they figure (based on the discussion) that it's a coin flip as to a track further west or one further east, and they don't want to force all of Miami to evacuate unless it's definitely going to cause stronger winds there? #whoknows
Quoting 1062. Articuno:



Matthew and Andrew are "ew" storms...


And as someone pointed out a while back, they're apostles.

Matthew has me worried. The east coast of Florida is heavily populated for much of its stretch, a Cat-4 raking from WPB to Daytona is as close to a worse case scenario as you'll likely see.
Plantation here...bets this takes a wobble west and affects us more than predicted here in Broward?
1134. Melagoo
isn't the elevation generally only 10-15 ft along the coast ... I would have left yesterday if I lived there
Quoting 1129. FloridaGirlNikki:

Blog is lagging again...or, no one has posted anything in the last 10 minutes. Somehow I doubt that. To be expected I guess.


It is running fine for me
Quoting 1042. IMA:



Sorry, but in the aftermath of Ike I saw what happened to so many pets people left or were torn away from in the surge. It infuriates me.

What is the most infuriating is the people who leave dogs CHAINED outside during something like this (at all, really, but that is another discussion) and they die in flood waters chained to a post. It would be better to just release them, than for them to go through that horrific death. At least running free they would have a chance at getting themselves to higher ground.
Quoting 883. Chicklit:


I am on a barrier island just north of Canaveral.
It is going to be rough here, but people have their reasons for staying and are willing to suffer the consequences.


No, they won't have to suffer the consequences because they won't be around to anymore.

Rough? It won't be rough. It'll be catastrophic. As in, scour the island clean of any trace of humanity catastrophic. Perhaps not even have an island left, maybe just a patch of sand. Matt is projected to be a CAT 4 hauling a lot of water, and his current path delivers an almost dead on hit to your location.

If you want to stay that's your choice of course. But notify your next of kin of your plans, then write down your SS # and next of kin contact info on something, put it in something water-proof, then strap it securely to your body. It really helps in the aftermath when it comes to identifying bodies.
Quoting 1062. Articuno:



Matthew and Andrew are "ew" storms...


They're apostle storms. Also out there are Peter and Philippe, Simon and John in the EPac, and Tomas already retired. Just need Bartholomew, James, Jude, and Judas
Quoting 1118. Hurricanes101:



latest track has it 12 miles off the coast


Hey Ally.... yes it is.
Quoting 1124. AllyBama:

In all of this calamity, it is sad not to see posts or hear from Rand. :(
1141. Kevin77
Quoting 1110. HopquickSteve:



Northward?! Oh no. No no no no. Maybe later, but something feels wrong here. :/ It is time to extend it south, even out of an abundance of precaution. Please.


My understanding is that the NHC believes that hurricane conditions are possible/ expected within 24-36 hours in the Jacksonville area. That's how they do their warning system is 24-36 hours in advance of the hurricane conditions. You might already know that, but just saying/ informing as necessary. Current forecast is sustained around 50, gusts towards 70.
1142. Tcwx2
Unless it strengthens dramatically, you're not going to see 125+mph sustained winds. Gusts? Maybe.. But I'd say based on the current track sustained 60-80mph with gusts 95-120mph.
Quoting 1117. rxse7en:

Local Met here in Jax just said that we can expect 70+mph sustained winds right here around Jax Beach. TWC saying we can see 125+mph sustained. That's a big friggin' difference. I'm thinking local was looking at the 8pm update that had the system moving offshore and TWC is basing it on the NHC 11pm update that it's going to be sitting on our coast.

Sigh.

1143. beell
Quoting 1081. wunderweatherman123:


odds are higher for a landfall rather than a scrape?


Based on a questionable interpretation of a few data points from some random guy on the internet, yes. Maybe south of the Space Coast.

This should come as no surprise to anyone who has been following the NHC.
Quoting 1124. AllyBama:

In all of this calamity, it is sad not to see posts or hear from Rand. :(
yeah
1145. nash36
This makes my heart sink; truly does.

This track is the absolute worst track you could imagine. PLEASE heed the warnings! Millions of us are going to have our lives changed, I fear.
As the storm gets closer to Florida, we're going to be looking for live feeds.

Here is a beautiful view of Downtown Miami tonight. Not much traffic!

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/dprjfLAHKr3


I am very concerned about the island of Exuma. It is sitting right in the middle of the NE eyewall and is absolutely getting blasted. The surge is coming from the shallow side, too, so the surge has to be horrific.
Q: What is preventing it from taking Donna's Florida route? Labor day?
Haven't seen that mentioned.
Quoting 1078. Icybubba:


Extended the hurricane warnings


Perhaps in the wrong direction. Not wishing Matthew on anyone, but at least let it go where the warnings were posted.
I've notices a cookie/cache bug on the blog that can make it look like people haven't commented in large amounts of time. To fix this, you can
Clear your cookies and cache then reopen the page in a new tab.
Use incognito mode if you use chrome and just open and close the window
Or use private browsing mode if you are on a mobile device.

I don't think I'm the only one experiencing this, and those methods have worked for me.
959
959 mbs
1153. Tcwx2
Down to 959mb.
1154. Zaphod
If you have a genset remember to get extra oil and filters. Light duty generators likely need oil changes every couple of days of runtime. And of course drink lots of gas.

Windfield will grow tomorrow for sure. Those who extrapolate affects on Friday based on the windfield today may have a nasty surprise coming.
958.5mb from recon as lowest pressure reading. Down ~2mb from last pass. We'll have a dropsonde to get us a more accurate reading.
Quoting 1132. win1gamegiantsplease:



And as someone pointed out a while back, they're apostles.

Matthew has me worried. The east coast of Florida is heavily populated for much of its stretch, a Cat-4 raking from WPB to Daytona is as close to a worse case scenario as you'll likely see.

Only thing worse for FL is a Cat 5 hitting just south of Miami. Mother of all disasters.

But this has the potential to be plenty bad enough. If anybody is wavering about staying or going, just go. Your stuff isn't worth dying for, or worse, watching a loved one die for. That includes pets. Go. Get outta Dodge.
1157. Tcwx2
Wow three straight posts saying 959mb. Haha gotta love WU.
Quoting 1122. medicroc9234:


Its when your looking away from the sea and behind you to see your escape route cut off is when your kick yourself for not leaving. Not a damned material thing in this world worth as much as your life. If you had a son or daughter what advice would you give them?
Get out NOW before you become a statistic.
Quoting 1143. beell:



Based on a questionable interpretation of a few data point from some random guy on the internet, yes. Maybe south of the Space Coast.

This should come as no surprise to anyone who has been following the NHC.


But are you staying in a Holiday Inn Express?

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...EYE OF MATTHEW MOVING NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA...

LOCATION...23.4N 76.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

I love the NHC more.
something has to be wrong with recon with these winds. Surface observations are showing much stronger winds than what recon is.
Quoting 1126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

looks kinda like the grim reaper too me don't underestimate the power of nature




That IR image was a sign of things to come...
Quoting 1155. Envoirment:

958.5mb from recon as lowest pressure reading. Down 1-2mb from last pass. We'll have a dropsonde to get us a more accurate reading.
So the strengthening begins, will be a long night ahead, I'm off. Stay safe everyone in his path, make educated decisions please, remember a house can be rebuilt, a life cannot.
Quoting 1156. islander44:


Only thing worse for FL is a Cat 5 hitting just south of Miami. Mother of all disasters.

But this has the potential to be plenty bad enough. If anybody is wavering about staying or going, just go. Your stuff isn't worth dying for, or worse, watching a loved one die for. That includes pets. Go. Get outta Dodge.


But that's happened though..
Quoting 1119. HighOnHurricanes:



I think with all of the fresh faces here this week, it may be wise to note when you are posting a forecast or a model rather than a real time update. Not everyone will know the difference.

Almost fell off my chair
Quoting 1161. Hurricanes101:

something has to be wrong with recon with these winds. Surface observations are showing much stronger winds than what recon is.


How does recon usually measure wind speeds? Perhaps something is interfering with their method?
DId anyone guess 958 mb?
Quoting 1161. Hurricanes101:

something has to be wrong with recon with these winds. Surface observations are showing much stronger winds than what recon is.


Well recon are only sampling small straight lines of winds at a time and if the strongest winds are overland, they can't really sample them properly as the instruments they use are for measuring winds over the ocean.
Quoting 1147. SavannahStorm:



I am very concerned about the island of Exuma. It is sitting right in the middle of the NE eyewall and is absolutely getting blasted. The surge is coming from the shallow side, too, so the surge has to be horrific.


Yep. I've been monitoring this Vantage Vue PWS for the last few hours. Pressure is really starting to bottom out now. Link
Dropsonde measured 959mb with 11kt surface winds - so ~958mb this pass. Down 3mb since last. Link
Any info on Putnam County? We have a house near Interlachen...Thanks
Quoting 1169. Envoirment:



Well recon are only sampling small straight lines of winds at a time and if the strongest winds are overland, they can't really sample them properly as the instruments they use are for measuring winds over the ocean.


true and since the eyewall is on land right now, they probably could not fly through it
14L/MH/M/C3
MARK
23.13N/76.14W


another hr or so eye should clear out it already showing just not defined once that happens cat 4 it will become
Quoting 1110. HopquickSteve:



Northward?! Oh no. No no no no. Maybe later, but something feels wrong here. :/ It is time to extend it south, even out of an abundance of precaution. Please.


There are currently no projected conditions that would call for extending it south.

NEXSAT (click for 24 hr loop)
Quoting 1166. FunnelVortex:



How does recon usually measure wind speeds? Perhaps something is interfering with their method?


SMFR, microwave on the plane (no not with Kraft Mac n cheese lol)
Quoting 1167. matrcrane:

DId anyone guess 958 mb?


Looks like 5 consecutive dropsonde read 959 or lower on that last pass.
958.5mb and at 23.2N. That is definitely not north enough for this thing to miss Andros unless it starts making some NNW-ward progress very soon.

030300 2323N 07619W 6967 02780 9585 +135 +130 118010 018 025 001 03
Quoting 1141. Kevin77:



My understanding is that the NHC believes that hurricane conditions are possible/ expected within 24-36 hours in the Jacksonville area. That's how they do their warning system is 24-36 hours in advance of the hurricane conditions. You might already know that, but just saying/ informing as necessary. Current forecast is sustained around 50, gusts towards 70.


And a lot sooner if it goes west. :( But yeah, it should be extended north too, I didn't mean to sound like JAX was out of the woods, but that MIA is in it too...
forecast to get 130mph... 11pm NHC discussion page bottom.
1183. robj144
Quoting 1139. redwagon:






Is that a pinhole eye or just the CDO obscuring they eye to make it look smaller?
Quoting 1118. Hurricanes101:



latest track has it 12 miles off the coast


That depends on where along the coast. The center is forecast to hit the Kennedy Space Center. It is forecast to be 30 miles off of Jupiter.
Remember me posting this last week?

Is this a coincidence?

1. Black moon rising
2. 4000 days since last major hurricane (40 x 100 - It's a symbolic number meaning "a completed period.")
3. Matthew - 1st book of the Bible

And then I wrote that the worst possible track this hurricane could take was just off shore..running up the coast and maintaining its strength.

I got poofed for posting this. :)

Quoting 1076. NutZilla:
Later...early this morning around 2 AM or 3 AM...you might hear Matthew. It will sound like airplane sorties taking off. It is the sound of the storm reflecting off of the atmosphere.

Fascinating. Over the past 20+ years I have often (thanks to living in beautiful Charleston, SC) said to my daughter, "Hear that roar? It's a tropical storm offshore." But I never knew, or remembered to try to research, why we could hear that very distinctive roar.
Stay strong you all. And Safe. Stay calm. I went though 125 gusts to 154 and am here...k?
No one died where I was.
1188. Michfan
How legit is this model HRRR???

Quoting 1090. MiamiHurricanes09:

I understand that the forecast currently does not call for hurricane force winds to cross over into Dade, but should we really be putting that much faith into a 30 mile spread?


It's been rather crazy for us down here dude. I freaked out as much as you did when it wobbled west. I've been OCD about this dadgum Hurricane for 6 days, I'm sure have too. Not gonna say it doesn't hit us with Hurricane winds, but I'll say this, I'm ready for November 30th and our December days with our random 80 degree highs, SO much more than this.
Maybe to uplift the gloom of the blog, ran across a funny tweet from 'Will Ferrel' (not really him)

Due to HB2, Hurricane Matthew is cancelling his visit to North Carolina.
1192. banddfl
Have you checked our little motels here in North Port/Port Charlotte? They're not that great so they may be last resort but at least it's a bed and AC. Good luck.
Quoting 1120. southfla:



Maybe, however I planned to leave Miami for Fort Myers because I have a relative in an assisted living facility there. Since work is closed until Monday, I thought I could enjoy a quick visit and enjoy A/C for a little while longer. However, when I looked for hotel rooms last night at 5pm (pet friendly), I could not find one single hotel with a room available from Naples to Tampa.

Sometimes it is not possible to leave if you are not able to reserve a place to go. There are an unprecedented number of people evacuating hundreds of miles of coastline for this event. There are not enough hotel rooms available for everyone who wants one away from Matthew's wind field effects.
Quoting 1173. Hurricanes101:



true and since the eyewall is on land right now, they probably could not fly through it


Turbulence would be bad to fly through the eye over land.
1194. pottery
Quoting 1126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

looks kinda like the grim reaper too me don't underestimate the power of nature



Scariest thing I've seen tonight..... Thanks Keeper. Now I won't be able to sleep......... :):)))
1195. Dakster
Last few frame seem to show Matthew getting his act together and strengthening, getting that buzz saw look.

Matthew better not pull an Andrew and at the last second go west and make a bee line for South Dade...

A slow moving Cat 4 up the east coast isn't going to be a pretty... Mother nature making up for lost time, since we went 11 years without a hurricane hitting.
958.5 rounds to 959 but what does it matter. The important thing is that Matthew is now in intensification mode.
Quoting 1190. ElConando:



It's been rather crazy for us down here dude. I freaked out as much as you did when it wobbled west. I've been OCD about this dadgum Hurricane for 6 days, I'm sure have too. Not gonna say it doesn't hit us with Hurricane winds, but I'll say this, I'm ready for November 30th and our December days with our random 80 degree highs, SO much more than this.
Totally with you om that one lmao. Beach days during Christmas break is what I'm looking forward to.

As far as Matthew goes, he's not tracking as far north as he should be. Just a few miles here and there makes a difference down the line.
Well folks, looks like we're reaching the outer limits of Camagüey doppler coverage (no the eye is not opening up); too far N for the other Cuba dopplers. So until within range of MIA, its gonna be good ol' GOES.
1199. nash36
Quoting 1194. pottery:


Scariest thing I've seen tonight..... Thanks Keeper. Now I won't be able to sleep......... :):)))


Jesus!!!

It's like he's grinning and looking at the blog as if to say "you aint seen nothin' yet."

Creepy.
Quoting 1196. kmanislander:

958.5 rounds to 959 but what does it matter. The important thing is that Matthew is now in intensification mode.

Sonde found 959mb with 11kts of wind so the consensus should be 958mb for now.
1201. MZT
Fowey Rock Bouy.
Pressure falling, wind gusts picking up.
TWC in house models shows Matthew over the center of Andros and alot closer to Broward County and south Florida.
Quoting 1186. wishingSCsnow:


Fascinating. Over the past 20+ years I have often (thanks to living in beautiful Charleston, SC) said to my daughter, "Hear that roar? It's a tropical storm offshore." But I never knew, or remembered to try to research, why we could hear that very distinctive roar.


We hear it from time to time in Savannah, too. It can range from a low hum to a sustained sound of far-away thunder. I have read where the sound is actually created by wave action and can carry for hundreds of miles.
What will it be like in the communities due west of Boynton/Hypoluxo, right near the turnpike? 10 miles from shore, in other words. Assume new roof, 90s cinderblock construction with roof clips and metal shutters. Not directly on water. How much structural damage/failure is common assuming track is close to expected? I'm concerned about safety not property.

I have family there but don't know how things work under these conditions. Obviously not looking for firm predictions.
1206. mrjr101
Quoting 1185. NutZilla:

Remember me posting this last week?

Is this a coincidence?

1. Black moon rising
2. 4000 days since last major hurricane (40 x 100 - It's a symbolic number meaning "a completed period.")
3. Matthew - 1st book of the Bible

And then I wrote that the worst possible track this hurricane could take was just off shore..running up the coast and maintaining its strength.

I got poofed for posting this. :)



I get it now, NutZilla, hehe.
Outer bands starting to appear on this radar:
Link


Quoting 1076. NutZilla:
Later...early this morning around 2 AM or 3 AM...you might hear Matthew. It will sound like airplane sorties taking off. It is the sound of the storm reflecting off of the atmosphere.

Quoting 1186. wishingSCsnow:



Fascinating. Over the past 20+ years I have often (thanks to living in beautiful Charleston, SC) said to my daughter, "Hear that roar? It's a tropical storm offshore." But I never knew, or remembered to try to research, why we could hear that very distinctive roar.


After all these years...tonight and for the remaining days of the weekend, someone might finally capture the sound so we can all hear it. I'm praying for a hot, outside microphone tonight!
Quoting 1167. matrcrane:

DId anyone guess 958 mb?

I said it would be below 960, figured 959-958
GFS initializing..
1211. Dakster
Quoting 1190. ElConando:



It's been rather crazy for us down here dude. I freaked out as much as you did when it wobbled west. I've been OCD about this dadgum Hurricane for 6 days, I'm sure have too. Not gonna say it doesn't hit us with Hurricane winds, but I'll say this, I'm ready for November 30th and our December days with our random 80 degree highs, SO much more than this.


Get ready for a potential month without power (or AC)... That is what happened after Katrina and Wilma for me in South Dade. Granted in this case the damage will also be way to the north of you so it might be as easy to escape the catastrophe for at least the first week or so.
Quoting 1156. islander44:


Only thing worse for FL is a Cat 5 hitting just south of Miami. Mother of all disasters.

But this has the potential to be plenty bad enough. If anybody is wavering about staying or going, just go. Your stuff isn't worth dying for, or worse, watching a loved one die for. That includes pets. Go. Get outta Dodge.


Forgot to also say this, I'd rather die five times than see my pet die. Selfish.
Quoting 1198. Kowaliga:

Well folks, looks like we're reaching the outer limits of Camagüey doppler coverage (no the eye is not opening up); too far N for the other Cuba dopplers. So until within range of MIA, its gonna be good ol' GOES.

This radar just looks like WNW movement into southern Andros to me man.

I need to take a break LOL.
A number of people plan to ride the storm out. I've been doing post disaster relief for 15+ years. Many people stay for the thrill. Some stay to protect their property. If you are not in an evacuation zone and your local guidance is to stay put by all means stay put. if you are told to evacuate, please do. Even if you don't make it, someone will look out for you. first responders check for bodies as soon as storm is over. FEMA provides mortuary services to your family, unless you convinced them to stay with you. You might want to listen to the heartbreaking last phone calls from those near Galvasten who chose to stay to protect their property during Hurricane Ike. Please wear durable ID tags so morgue workers can identify you. It's hard on families to have to wait for ID. May God bless you and keep you and hold you in the palm of his hand,
1216. Kevin77
Quoting 1203. MeteorologistTV:

TWC in house models shows Matthew over the center of Andros and alot closer to Broward County and south Florida.


My guess is the could be the HRRR model or the high resolution rapid refresh.
Quoting 1049. ScooterXX7:

Curious, who decides the watches and warnings? State gov't? NHC recommendation to county leaders? What's the structure?

The idea that Dade County isn't under a Hurricane Watch concurrently with the TS Warning is irresponsible on whoever's behalf.

I concur. I think it is purely political. Miami is know all around the world and dependent on tourism. With the Zika outbreak and the notion of a hurricane in "Miami-Dade", tourism could be hurt. I thin that is precisely the reason and I agree that it is deliberate. A public record request must be made when this is all said and done.
1218. GetReal


1220. Klw7288
Worst possible path right now. Looking at a Cat 4 skirting the coast of Florida. I'm not buying into this hard right hook right before Charleston. It took this storm 24hrs to reach Cat 5 strength. Scary when you think about the fact that it has better conditions to strengthen before beginning its U.S. Path of destruction.
1221. Patrap
Does anybody have any insight as to why the readings from stations on some of the islands suggests a stronger storm than the SMFR? The exuma international airport station went offline at 119 mph, could it be enhanced by a downdraft in a band maybe?
1223. rxse7en
Weather Channel predicting potentially 20' waves in Jax Beach area. Is that on top of the 8' surge?
Quoting 1182. Starhopper:

forecast to get 130mph... 11pm NHC discussion page bottom.


And that's in 24 hours; it may happen before sunrise. I fear there are going to be a lot of spilled/spit coffee in the morning :(

ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 23.4N 76.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 24.6N 77.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 26.4N 79.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 28.2N 80.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 30.1N 81.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 32.5N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
Quoting 1086. Astrometeor:



Kori and Isaac (wxchaser97) are chasing Matthew. Perhaps I should ask where.

----

@blog, if y'all want, I'll try to keep communications with them. Isaac is pretty excited, Kori said "After Hermine, Matthew is the next on my hit list". Jed, if you're still on, Isaac mentioned you. What are you doing?


I thought about chasing it myself, but I have 2 mid terms next Tuesday, and a lot of HW to do this weekend, also this has the potential to be very damaging and I wouldn't want to risk getting stranded. If I was done with school I probably would have gone to chase it with Kori.
If it did go from 961mb to 958mb - it'll be deepening at a rate of ~2mb/hour. Have to wait on the latest vortex message to see what they go with.

Edit: Went with 959mb - so deepening at a rate of ~1.25mb/hour.
Quoting 1198. Kowaliga:

Well folks, looks like we're reaching the outer limits of Camagüey doppler coverage (no the eye is not opening up); too far N for the other Cuba dopplers. So until within range of MIA, its gonna be good ol' GOES.


Looks from radar to be moving straight NW toward Andros. Maybe Nassau will be spared the full fury of the eyewall. Not good news for Andros obviously.
1228. beell
Quoting 1159. StormJunkie:



But are you staying in a Holiday Inn Express?




Just for a couple hours.
;-]
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 3:25Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 25
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 3:03:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°22'N 76°20'W (23.3667N 76.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 133 statute miles (214 km) to the SSE (151°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,739m (8,986ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 89kts (~ 102.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNE (28°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 118° at 101kts (From the ESE at ~ 116.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNE (33°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 101kts (~ 116.2mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNE (33°) from the flight level center at 3:00:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 130° at 11kts (From the SE at 13mph)
Quoting 1214. MiamiHurricanes09:

This radar just looks like WNW movement into southern Andros to me man.

I need to take a break LOL.


Put the straight edge of a sheet of paper on your computer screen and align it with the left edge of the eye from start to finish of the loop. On the current trajectory it would pass just over the northern tip of Andros pretty much between Andros and New Providence. :-)
1231. Patrap
Ping

959.0 mb
1232. haggler
"a grinding path"? I seem to have missed that day in hurricane path analysis. Please explain.
Quoting 1133. LawBoy80:

Plantation here...bets this takes a wobble west and affects us more than predicted here in Broward?
It will not take a wobble, it is going to expand out rapidly like a tornado. Have you seen the stormchaser videos when they think they are safe and it suddenly expands, you hear "oh, sh**", and the camera turns off?
My parents and I live near the St. Johns River here in Jacksonville, FL. We are definitely evacuating tomorrow mid-day to a safer location. I feel bad however for where this storm has already hit. Places like Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. The Bahamian Islands are getting hammered right now and we can only hope that many of them are out of harm's way.
1235. Llfox
It's really moving more west northwest than I would expect from the forecast track... The keys and Miami/ Dade are not prepared for significant impact. This radar loop shows the westiness movement clearly

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Caribb eanSatellite.aspx?animate=true
Quoting 1192. banddfl:

Have you checked our little motels here in North Port/Port Charlotte? They're not that great so they may be last resort but at least it's a bed and AC. Good luck.


I found two hotels with rooms available in Tampa with a quick search on Travelocity. It's not impossible.

I'd recommend calling hotels directly; they may have rooms available due to cancellations that aren't posted on their sites yet.

Also, check campgrounds like KOA that have cabins - most people won't think to check them.

I would chase it if it were in the daytime, but 2am? no thanks I'll be in my bed.
Making landfall in Andros Town in 12 hours on the GFS.

Having said that -- about the lack of hotel rooms -- I should point out that I would have been leaving by choice, not because I was under evacuation orders or on a barrier island.

If I were in either of those situations as many people are, I would leave after I prepped the best I could and drive to Georgia if necessary to find a hotel room.

It is terrifying to be in a category 4 hurricane, even 10 miles north of the eye (as I was in Andrew). I knew people in Homestead, ground zero for Andrew, who spent the night huddled in a bathroom together knowing, not just thinking, they might, but knowing they would die that night. Fortunately they did not, but they were changed people.

If you are under evacuation orders or living on a barrier island within the cone, please reconsider leaving if you are staying. I swore after Andrew I would leave if I was ever in the cross-hairs of a category 3 or higher hurricane. Just my two cents.

Good luck to everyone in the path of Matthew.
Quoting 1203. MeteorologistTV:

TWC in house models shows Matthew over the center of Andros and alot closer to Broward County and south Florida.


What happened to the guy on TWC earlier who was doing a happy dance and saying that Matthew was weakening? Did they lock him in a closet for the next 2 days?
Quoting 1221. Patrap:


Deepening
1243. HrDelta
Quoting 1123. seminolesfan:


A bit more so you can have some understanding...Dvorak technique is an post processing of the ir satellite data based on a "set of rules.". This set of rules is an algorithm that has storm parameters and metrics as its output.

That should give some good keywords if you want to google some more info.


Thanks! Will keep that in mind. The fact IR presentation is improving is not good.
Quoting 1223. rxse7en:

Weather Channel predicting potentially 20' waves in Jax Beach area. Is that on top of the 8' surge?

Could be? I had a canal across my street in wilma...maybe 500 yds long. The waves were 12-14 feet going completely over small dock pilings by like 5 feet. I watched it for 20 min.
Quoting 1233. Bigwinds:

It will not take a wobble, it is going to expand out rapidly like a tornado. Have you seen the stormchaser videos when they think they are safe and it suddenly expands, you hear "oh, sh**", and the camera turns off?


Thank you Bigwinds - I am a "noob" here and am trying to learn as I go...please pardon my ignorance!! What are your thoughts for Broward County - I live in Plantation....just west of Ft. Lauderdale downtown
Quoting 1223. rxse7en:

Weather Channel predicting potentially 20' waves in Jax Beach area. Is that on top of the 8' surge?


Yes. That is Significant wave Height, which is the average wave height of 1/3 of the waves.
For those thinking of staying in the path of a major Hurricane, I can only remember the words of LA's governor after Katrina and as we were preparing for hurricane Rita. If you're not going to evacuate, please take a permanent marker and write your SS# or Driver's license # on your forearm and thigh....
Quoting 1240. southfla:

Having said that -- about the lack of hotel rooms -- I should point out that I would have been leaving by choice, not because I was under evacuation orders or on a barrier island.

If I were in either of those situations as many people are, I would leave after I prepped the best I could and drive to Georgia if necessary to find a hotel room.

It is terrifying to be in a category 4 hurricane, even 10 miles north of the eye (as I was in Andrew). I knew people in Homestead, ground zero for Andrew, who spent the night huddled in a bathroom together knowing, not just thinking, they might, but knowing they would die that night. Fortunately they did not, but they were changed people.

If you are under evacuation orders or living on a barrier island within the cone, please reconsider leaving if you are staying. I swore after Andrew I would leave if I was ever in the cross-hairs of a category 3 or higher hurricane. Just my two cents.

Good luck to everyone in the path of Matthew.


Good luck finding a hotel room in Georgia. From what I hear, everything is booked. The South Carolina folks are coming west, the Florida folks coming north.
Ok so I see we just got Hurricane Warnings here in Jacksonville. So who can tell me what wind speeds roughly are we looking at inland and do you think we may have mandatory evacuations in Jacksonville on Thursday other than our beaches?
Quoting 1238. MiamiHurricanes09:

Making landfall in Andros Town in 12 hours on the GFS.




How will this affect the track as the NHC track has it "shooting the gap" b/w Andros and Nassau?? Has GFS been reliable thus far?
Quoting 1247. LAlurker:

For those thinking of staying in the path of a major Hurricane, I can only remember the words of LA's governor after Katrina and as we were preparing for hurricane Rita. If you're not going to evacuate, please take a permanent marker and write your SS# or Driver's license # on your forearm and thigh....

They do that to scare people into compliance.
If I believed half of the posts on here, I would be in big trouble. Remember, this is an entertainment site. Not a place to go for life-saving information.
1253. beell


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed lower winds in Matthew than seen during the previous mission, with peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 103 kt and estimates near 95 kt from the SFMR instrument. Based on these, the initial intensity is reduced to 100 kt. However, satellite imagery indicates that the hurricane is becoming better organized, with the eye trying to re-appear and cooling cloud tops near the center. In addition, the eye has contracted to 15 n mi wide and the central pressure has fallen to 961 mb. This suggests that the winds are about to increase.

The initial motion is 320/9. There is little change to the synoptic reasoning or the forecast track through 48 hours. Matthew is expected to move around the western side of the subtropical ridge, which should move slowly eastward during the next couple of days. This evolution should steer Matthew generally northwestward for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. This forecast track takes the center near Andros Island and New Providence in about 12 hours, and then very near the eastern coast of the the Florida peninsula. This part of the forecast track is west of the various consensus models, but it lies near the GFS, ECMWF, and ECMWF ensemble mean. From 48-72 hours, the cyclone is expected to recurve northeastward along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. After 72 hours, the track guidance become very divergent, with solutions ranging from a continued eastward motion out to sea to a turn back to the southwest. The new forecast track shows a slow southeastward motion during this time in best agreement with the ECMWF.

As mentioned above, Matthew is getting better organized, and during the next 36 hours or so it should be moving through an area of light vertical wind shear. This should allow strengthening, and the new intensity forecast calls for the system to reach an intensity near 115 kt in about 36 hours. This is near the upper end of the intensity guidance. After 36 hours, proximity to land and increasing shear should cause weakening, and the cyclone is now expected to be down to tropical storm strength by 120 hours. Overall, the intensity forecast is in best agrement with the SHIPS model.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological service and other government officials in that country.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane- force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and Georgia.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in Florida and Georgia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 23.4N 76.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 24.6N 77.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 26.4N 79.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 28.2N 80.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 30.1N 81.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 32.5N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 32.0N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 30.5N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 1249. weatherxtreme:

Ok so I see we just got Hurricane Warnings here in Jacksonville. So who can tell me what wind speeds roughly are we looking at inland and do you think we may have mandatory evacuations in Jacksonville on Thursday other than our beaches?


Along the St. Johns river as well, most likely. The flood zone of course
1255. nash36
Quoting 1220. Klw7288:

Worst possible path right now. Looking at a Cat 4 skirting the coast of Florida. I'm not buying into this hard right hook right before Charleston. It took this storm 24hrs to reach Cat 5 strength. Scary when you think about the fact that it has better conditions to strengthen before beginning its U.S. Path of destruction.


I don't believe it's as hard a right turn as it seems. The time between those two points is 24hrs. I would expect a more gradual turn, right on the coast of Savannah, coast of Charleston, then bending east. Either way, it really doesn't change anything; 25-30 miles offshore is still hurricane conditions for Charleston and inland.
1256. Michfan
Quoting 1227. VegasRain:


Looks from radar to be moving straight NW toward Andros. Maybe Nassau will be spared the full fury of the eyewall. Not good news for Andros obviously.


Actually this would be a bit worse for Nassau. NE part of storm and eye wall with water building up as it is pushed ahead of the storm as the winds switch from the east to from the south. At least if they got hit with the eye they would get some momentary relief as it passed over.
Good night all. Going to sleep here in PBC. Going to be a long day/night tomorrow. I have 2 kids who have never been through a hurricane. No worries though, we are west of the turnpike in a a 2010 built house with shutters. To all of those in harms way please stay safe and to those who are going to ride it out on florida's barrier islands please reconsider. As a mother I have learned nothing is more important than your life and lives of those you love!
Quoting 1217. kinsingmonster:


I concur. I think it is purely political. Miami is know all around the world and dependent on tourism. With the Zika outbreak and the notion of a hurricane in "Miami-Dade", tourism could be hurt. I thin that is precisely the reason and I agree that it is deliberate. A public record request must be made when this is all said and done.


I've been a little concerned about the lack a hurricane watch or warning there too. But remember, that is a very large population down there, and local ordinances may call for mandatory evacs under Hurricane Watches/Warnings. Before Andrew there wasn't enough warning, Floyd's approach caused mass panic (leaving people trapped on the highway). Has the pendulum swung too far back the other way since then?
If Matthew intensifies to a Cat 5, and the low center is offshore 20 miles...

...well...all I can say is that Pensacola is further than 20 miles from Orange Beach, AL and Ivan was a weakening Cat 4 at landfall.

N-NE winds of up to 120 mph pushing a big storm surge ashore for hundreds of miles just gives me the willies!
1261. GatorWX
Matthew looks very primed this evening. By that, it looks like it's certainly redeveloped its core. I would not at all be surprised to see a cat 4 tomorrow. Ole Matt's ready to go! Nothing is holding this back right now. I never want to sound alarmist, but I haven't been on since like 1300, so... a lil' catching up. These forecasts, both official and modeled have a TON of data taken into account. FL's EC needs to treat this as a landfall threat, no matter where you are located, especially between West Palm and Jacksonville, for now. You need to have plans made!, if you haven't made a move yet. I'm completely serious in saying, if your home is in a vulnerable area, especially, you should not take this too lightly.

Traveling parallel to the coast, this could weaken upon nearing of landfall, but this is an exquisitely developed system with a very well appointed upper atmosphere. This, imo, will be a major or very close to, at the least, edging the coast. THINK!
Local Mets are saying
Quoting 1203. MeteorologistTV:

TWC in house models shows Matthew over the center of Andros and alot closer to Broward County and south Florida.


Local meteorologists are saying the same thing
Quoting 1241. HighOnHurricanes:



What happened to the guy on TWC earlier who was doing a happy dance and saying that Matthew was weakening? Did the lock him in a closet for the next 2 days?


Haha, going to TWC for weather is like going to CNN for news. All fluff.
Quoting 1222. FloodinDownInTexas:

Does anybody have any insight as to why the readings from stations on some of the islands suggests a stronger storm than the SMFR? The exuma international airport station went offline at 119 mph, could it be enhanced by a downdraft in a band maybe?


The winds from Matt were near 100 mph by itself at the time. A gust to 120 really isn't unusual, especially given the band of heavy convection that went overhead at the time.
Quoting 1235. Llfox:

It's really moving more west northwest than I would expect from the forecast track... The keys and Miami/ Dade are not prepared for significant impact. This radar loop shows the westiness movement clearly

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Caribb eanSatellite.aspx?animate=true


I don't understand how Dade is not under a hurricane warning
Quoting 1197. MiamiHurricanes09:

Totally with you om that one lmao. Beach days during Christmas break is what I'm looking forward to.

As far as Matthew goes, he's not tracking as far north as he should be. Just a few miles here and there makes a difference down the line.


Well the new NHC track takes it takes it and clips NE Andros Island. We'll see what happens. There has to be a good reason that we're still under TS warnings and not Hurricane warnings by this point lol
img src="">
Gotta lotta mileage outa this wood.
Quoting 1250. LawBoy80:



How will this affect the track as the NHC track has it "shooting the gap" b/w Andros and Nassau?? Has GFS been reliable thus far?
A more westward track. The previous run of the GFS also had it crossing over Andros and as a result Matthew made landfall near Port St. Lucie.

As far as the GFS' performance thus far, smarter posters than I can link you to the data. :)
1269. pingon
Quoting 1110. HopquickSteve:



Northward?! Oh no. No no no no. Maybe later, but something feels wrong here. :/ It is time to extend it south, even out of an abundance of precaution. Please.

why would you want to do that? Did you not see the stores & gas stations today? Don't you think this whole town knows what's happening?. Extending them at this point would only serve to disrupt our lives even more. Those who haven't prepared are not doing it now!
Link
They were just showing Exuma TWC live on Youtube
cane is coming in slightly to the west of the forecast point in nassau...not good from the surge and wind standpoint.
1272. KalEl27
Hi all, Decided to join due to this hurricane. I live in Stuart, but I boarded up and took my family to greener pastures for the time being. I'm honestly thinking that this is going to buzzsaw up the coast and cause a lot of damage.
mat is getting march better organized since i too my nap at 3pm and got a few hrs of sleep


there still a ch of mat bombing at too a strong cat 4 with 155 mph winds or a cat 5 be for FL land fall i still think the NHC is still being too low mat is really starting too deepen right now


so am still sticking too my guns that this could still be a march power full storm be for FL land fall
Not sure if anyone been seeing this with all the attention towards Matthew lately...


Image of Subtropical Depression Bransby from NRL

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE BRANSBY (02-20162017)
4:00 AM RET October 6 2016
=====================================
South Of Madagascar

At 0:00 AM UTC, Subtropical Depression Bransby (991 hPa) located at 30.0S 45.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
Extending up to 45 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 55 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 70 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 135 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 32.6S 47.0E - 35 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
24 HRS 35.4S 48.9E - 30 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
=====================
The overall organization has improved overnight with a consolidating deep convection near the center and a pretty well defined banding eye pattern on the very last sat imagery. Although ASCAT data has not allowed a better estimation of the strength of the circulation,this improvement of the cloud pattern justify an increase in the estimate intensity. Water vapor imagery still show an upper level outflow over the system and a secondary cyclonic upper level vortex currently located at 800 km to the northwest of Bransby and rotating within the broader large scale upper level trough. Its associated circulation seems to provide an outflow channel over the northern and norther-western part of Bransby.

As anticipated, Bransby is currently accelerating now southeastwards and should stay on this track until dissipation. This track forecast is shared by all the available guidance with a weak spread.

The current favorable window should soon begin to end. Latest numerical weather prediction outputs suggest that upper divergence should not be as favorable than yesterday although a southeastward outflow channel could maintain. Moreover a westerly constraint should start to build followed by a sharp increase in the southwesterly constraint Thursday night as the upper level trough is caught again by the westerly eddies circulation. This should lead to the ventilation of the warm core then to the rapid filling of the low by Friday.

Nwp suggest unanimously that the current surface wind field of Bransby is now disconnected from the pressure gradient area to its south. Thus the winds radii has been significantly changed.
Quoting 1264. Xyrus2000:



The winds from Matt were near 100 mph by itself at the time. A gust to 120 really isn't unusual, especially given the band of heavy convection that went overhead at the time.


It was not a gust, it was a sustained wind, gusts were to 142mph
Turning in now. Stay safe in the Bahamas. Those of you farther north with time to prepare or get out of harms way use the time wisely.
Quoting 1234. Fsufootball:

My parents and I live near the St. Johns River here in Jacksonville, FL. We are definitely evacuating tomorrow mid-day to a safer location. I feel bad however for where this storm has already hit. Places like Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. The Bahamian Islands are getting hammered right now and we can only hope that many of them are out of harm's way.

Get a local map and take back roads (old county or state highways) to get out. The interstates will be very crowded. By the way, bed and breakfasts might also be options for those looking for a room. AAA also may be able to use their computers to find motels in small towns that might be off the beaten path.
1278. beell
36H 07/1200Z 28.2N 80.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
About 15 mi east of Melbourne.
Quoting 1252. GeoffreyWPB:

If I believed half of the posts on here, I would be in big trouble. Remember, this is an entertainment site. Not a place to go for life-saving information.

Actually, I get very good information here, you just have spend enough time here to know who's who.
1280. GatorWX
I should add:

Points further north are by no stretch out of the equation, even a direct strike, but thinking from a linear timeline, you have more clock. PARALLEL to the coast = VERY tricky forecast. Stay alert!
Quoting 1264. Xyrus2000:



The winds from Matt were near 100 mph by itself at the time. A gust to 120 really isn't unusual, especially given the band of heavy convection that went overhead at the time.


It said the wind was 119 mph sustained and gusting to 144 though, but yeah it must have been "rain contaminated"
1282. HrDelta
Quoting 1267. mikatnight:

img src="">
Gotta lotta mileage outa this wood.


That is some good lumber.
1283. ADCS
Quoting 1251. Starhopper:


They do that to scare people into compliance.


Right - and they should be scared. This is real life, and it's a really scary, deadly thing headed their way.
Every pass Mathew expands his wind field
On my phone now.
Wind gusts are starting to in increase. Looks like onset of hurricane force winds is a few hours away, so I am going to try to get some sleep. Will check in around 2 a.m or by 5 a.m. latest, technology permitting... 👍👌
Quoting 1251. Starhopper:


They do that to scare people into compliance.


And then after the storm, they come around and spray paint on the outside of the house to show that it has been searched and how many, if any, bodies are inside and need to be recovered. Bright orange spray paint.
Miami FL needs too be under a hurricane warning
Quoting 1283. ADCS:



Right - and they should be scared. This is real life, and it's a really scary, deadly thing headed their way.

A given? The reason.
1290. banddfl
Quoting 1240. southfla:

Having said that -- about the lack of hotel rooms -- I should point out that I would have been leaving by choice, not because I was under evacuation orders or on a barrier island.

If I were in either of those situations as many people are, I would leave after I prepped the best I could and drive to Georgia if necessary to find a hotel room.

It is terrifying to be in a category 4 hurricane, even 10 miles north of the eye (as I was in Andrew). I knew people in Homestead, ground zero for Andrew, who spent the night huddled in a bathroom together knowing, not just thinking, they might, but knowing they would die that night. Fortunately they did not, but they were changed people.

If you are under evacuation orders or living on a barrier island within the cone, please reconsider leaving if you are staying. I swore after Andrew I would leave if I was ever in the cross-hairs of a category 3 or higher hurricane. Just my two cents.

Good luck to everyone in the path of Matthew.

I went through Andrew in pompano and Wilma in delray. Not much fun! What's wrong with us on the west coast!? We don't bite and have rooms! Haha!
1291. MahFL
Quoting 1249. weatherxtreme:

Ok so I see we just got Hurricane Warnings here in Jacksonville. So who can tell me what wind speeds roughly are we looking at inland and do you think we may have mandatory evacuations in Jacksonville on Thursday other than our beaches?


The Hurricane Local Statement gives that info :

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KJAX.shtml
1292. GetReal
Quoting 1287. natcap31:



And then after the storm, they come around and spray paint on the outside of the house to show that it has been searched and how many, if any, bodies are inside and need to be recovered. Bright orange spray paint.

That so,,didnt happen in Andrew or Wilma? Where I was least. Thanks for sharing,
1294. IDTH

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 OCT 2016 Time : 024500 UTC
Lat : 23:19:01 N Lon : 76:18:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 934.3mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.6


Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -50.1C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 105km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.3 degrees
Quoting 1286. BahaHurican:

On my phone now.
Wind gusts are starting to in increase. Looks like onset of hurricane force winds is a few hours away, so I am going to try to get some sleep. Will check in around 2 a.m or by 5 a.m. latest, technology permitting... 👍👌



You have fantastic cell service, better than mine here in OK. Stay safe!
No Florida landfall on the GFS thus far. Just scraping along the coast.
Quoting 1288. thetwilightzone:

Miami FL needs too be under a hurricane warning

Can you elaborate..really wana know, no sarcasm
Quoting 1259. HighOnHurricanes:



I've been a little concerned about the lack a hurricane watch or warning there too. But remember, that is a very large population down there, and local ordinances may call for mandatory evacs under Hurricane Watches/Warnings. Before Andrew there wasn't enough warning, Floyd's approach caused mass panic (leaving people trapped on the highway). Has the pendulum swung too far back the other way since then?


If this was a cat 1 or 2, I could understand the trop warning, but as a potential major hurricane, at the very least, an evacuation for the barrier islands. They could do an inland trop warning and limit the hurricane warning to the islands. If this storm moves 1 degree of longitude west from the projected path, you will have hurricane force winds on the beach and and probably inland.
Quoting 1225. Jedkins01:



I thought about chasing it myself, but I have 2 mid terms next Tuesday, and a lot of HW to do this weekend, also this has the potential to be very damaging and I wouldn't want to risk getting stranded. If I was done with school I probably would have gone to chase it with Kori.


That's what I told Isaac. My next two days are relatively empty, not much stuff. And I have Monday/Tuesday off. But the possibility of being stranded in the middle of the school year is interesting. If this was July...it'd be different.

This morning. Looking east by the Lantana Bridge.
And Dexter.
Latest GFS run showing a coast-rider.


1302. Patrap
Get out the way.


Seek shelter,



Run from the water

Hide from the wind



we got a taxidermy man in town, he gonna have a heart attack when he see what I bring him he is"
Quoting 1117. rxse7en:

Local Met here in Jax just said that we can expect 70+mph sustained winds right here around Jax Beach. TWC saying we can see 125+mph sustained. That's a big friggin' difference. I'm thinking local was looking at the 8pm update that had the system moving offshore and TWC is basing it on the NHC 11pm update that it's going to be sitting on our coast.

Sigh.



The 11 pm update has solidified my plans to not only evacuate my barrier island, but to leave Jax altogether tomorrow. We will head for Georgia and then on to Asheville on Friday. SO glad I kept my parent's home after they passed to give me somewhere to go. I will even have a place to live if my house gets too damaged here in FLA. I am sure we will have a very long drive (with 6 cats it should be very noisy as well) but I survived evacuating Andrew and Floyd and can do it again!
1304. MahFL
My location could see gusts to 85mph. So that's definitely a power outage situation...
Latest GFS is over central Andros and further west.
Quoting 1250. LawBoy80:



How will this affect the track as the NHC track has it "shooting the gap" b/w Andros and Nassau?? Has GFS been reliable thus far?


The NHC doesn't have it "shooting the gap" anymore, it has the eyewall riding up a large portion of the coast.
Quoting 1293. Starhopper:


That so,,didnt happen in Andrew or Wilma? Where I was least. Thanks for sharing,


There was not much to spray paint after Andrew.
The eye wall is 100% closed in the last frame.
Quoting 1288. thetwilightzone:

Miami FL needs too be under a hurricane warning
should bend up offshore from there taz gonna be close waiting on rapid refresh model at 1 z out too hr 18 see what it shows
Quoting 1260. NutZilla:

If Matthew intensifies to a Cat 5, and the low center is offshore 20 miles...

...well...all I can say is that Pensacola is further than 20 miles from Orange Beach, AL and Ivan was a weakening Cat 4 at landfall.

N-NE winds of up to 120 mph pushing a big storm surge ashore for hundreds of miles just gives me the willies!


Ivan certainly felt like more than a Cat 3 in Pensacola. We took a feeder band, blew the roof off part of the building we were sheltering in. Exciting night, and not in a good way. Ivan also created an 18-foot storm surge in the INTERIOR bays. Floated the Interstate 10 bridge off the pilings, and flooded folks who never thought they could possibly flood. Pretty amazing storm. Then Katrina came along and made Ivan look like child's play.
1311. Patrap
Quoting 1300. mikatnight:


This morning. Looking east by the Lantana Bridge.
And Dexter.




Phoenix says wuuf!
1312. miamivu


NBC 6 meteorologist John Morales just said he needed to mention that a robust number of european model members bring Matthew ashore in West Palm Beach and a handful--maybe 10%--bring it ashore in metro Miami Dade/FTLauderdale. He forecasts wind gusts of 70mph in FTLauderdale tomorrow; this last is a calming note for us in NE Broward (sans wobbles and RI)....Morales concluded: South Florida, there is a chance there will be a hurricane here tomorrow...still nothing is set...we'll be here first thing in the am...
The difference here, as opposed to Wilma, say, is that Wilma was a Cat 1 on approach to FL...she weakened after several days over Cozumel...enroute from there she intensified to a Cat 2...and some Cat 3 winds rotated down to parts of the area...at no time did Wilma present a possibility of Cat 4 landfall in FL. I think there are a lot of jangled nerves right now and with good cause, imho.
Quoting 1262. E46Pilot:

Local Mets are saying

Local meteorologists are saying the same thing


Starting to get Charley flashbacks. Basically the same low approach angle too, only from the E instead of the W. Slight changes in direction make a huge difference in landfall location.

Hopefully it corrects by morning, but by then Matthew may be a strong cat 4, so... yeah.
Quoting 1297. nygiants:


Can you elaborate..really wana know, no sarcasm


If the hurricane follows the west side of the cone, Dade county will have hurricane force winds.
Quoting 1308. waccamatt:

The eye wall is 100% closed in the last frame.


Not good.
Quoting 1301. FunnelVortex:

Latest GFS run showing a coast-rider.





Exactly what the NHC track shows. I think it will either follow the NHC track dead on, or slightly west.
Unpopular comment I know but I thunk Matthew may not become much stronger than he is right now. The storm is just not deepening and winds not responding. The storm may just flare up here and there until Florida and make landfall around 115-120mph. Still scary but much better than a Cat 4.
dr m or bob you should add this page to your blog if any one looking for web cames earth cam would be a good site too add

Link
Quoting 1286. BahaHurican:

On my phone now.
Wind gusts are starting to in increase. Looks like onset of hurricane force winds is a few hours away, so I am going to try to get some sleep. Will check in around 2 a.m or by 5 a.m. latest, technology permitting... 👍👌



Good luck out there. Where are you riding it out from? Long time lurker but I don't think I've ever caught which part of the islands you're from haha.
Quoting 1288. thetwilightzone:

Miami FL needs too be under a hurricane warning


I totally agree, last minute change wont give people who need to go shelters or go to relatives house enough time.
Quoting 1260. NutZilla:

If Matthew intensifies to a Cat 5, and the low center is offshore 20 miles...

...well...all I can say is that Pensacola is further than 20 miles from Orange Beach, AL and Ivan was a weakening Cat 4 at landfall.

N-NE winds of up to 120 mph pushing a big storm surge ashore for hundreds of miles just gives me the willies!


He wouldn't make it that close if he gets to a CAT 5. The stronger he gets, the more northward he turns. If he gets really strong, he'd even twitch a little to the NE with the current steering.

The current projection has him climbing gradually through CAT 3 and making it to CAT 4. As he does so his path will gradually go from NW to NNW to N.
00Z RGEM way south and West from 12Z
1323. nash36
Quoting 1315. ACreativeName:



Not good.

Crap....
Dumb question......do the HH make their turns when they reach the edge of TS force wind field?
Quoting 1308. waccamatt:

The eye wall is 100% closed in the last frame.


The convection is fully wrapped, too. Look for a nice, defined eye and RI between now and dawn.
1326. GatorWX
That "pinhole eye" that's been gyrating around the 'center' is likely the start of the real eye. I'd imagine that's going to grow quite a bit before it nears FL. It's basically spinning around the true eye. This is a large circulation still, as it was as it neared Haiti.

1327. robj144
Quoting 1308. waccamatt:

The eye wall is 100% closed in the last frame.


That looks like it is going to be very strong soon. Looking nasty already.
1328. HrDelta
Quoting 1307. daddyjames:



There was not much to spray paint after Andrew.


Yeah, the spray paint was a Katrina/Rita thing.
Quoting 1312. miamivu:



NBC 6 meteorologist John Morales just said he needed to mention that a robust number of european model members bring Matthew ashore in West Palm Beach and a handful--maybe 10%--bring it ashore in metro Miami Dade/FTLauderdale. He forecasts wind gusts of 70mph in FTLauderdale tomorrow; this last is a calming note for us in NE Broward (sans wobbles and RI)....Morales concluded: South Florida, there is a chance there will be a hurricane here tomorrow...still nothing is set...we'll be here first thing in the am...
The difference here, as opposed to Wilma, say, is that Wilma was a Cat 1 on approach to FL...she weakened after several days over Cozumel...enroute from there she intensified to a Cat 2...and some Cat 3 winds rotated down to parts of the area...at no time did Wilma present a possibility of Cat 4 landfall in FL. I think there are a lot of jangled nerves right now and with good cause, imho.



wont that put Miami FL on the nasty side of the eye wall?
Quoting 1308. waccamatt:

The eye wall is 100% closed in the last frame.


It has a solid closed eyewall of deep convection now and a tight eye. The Cuba radar shows a closed eye, and the eyewall is way out of radar range.

I'm giving it a 50% of rapid intensification over the next 24 hours.
Quoting 1312. miamivu:



NBC 6 meteorologist John Morales just said he needed to mention that a robust number of european model members bring Matthew ashore in West Palm Beach and a handful--maybe 10%--bring it ashore in metro Miami Dade/FTLauderdale. He forecasts wind gusts of 70mph in FTLauderdale tomorrow; this last is a calming note for us in NE Broward (sans wobbles and RI)....Morales concluded: South Florida, there is a chance there will be a hurricane here tomorrow...still nothing is set...we'll be here first thing in the am...
The difference here, as opposed to Wilma, say, is that Wilma was a Cat 1 on approach to FL...she weakened after several days over Cozumel...enroute from there she intensified to a Cat 2...and some Cat 3 winds rotated down to parts of the area...at no time did Wilma present a possibility of Cat 4 landfall in FL. I think there are a lot of jangled nerves right now and with good cause, imho.



Also east winds bring less friction = stronger.
Quoting 1309. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

should bend up offshore from there taz gonna be close waiting on rapid refresh model at 1 z out too hr 18 see what it shows



Is that the HRRR model? I am not too familiar with this model. Is it a credible model, a la GFS/Euro? How often does it run?
Quoting 1296. MiamiHurricanes09:

No Florida landfall on the GFS thus far. Just scraping along the coast.
so instead of a direct strike on a small area we get the indirect strike along entire coast its not gonna be pretty when this is all said and done
Quoting 1223. rxse7en:

Weather Channel predicting potentially 20' waves in Jax Beach area. Is that on top of the 8' surge?
Yes, and the tide. And that beach is flat. I stay at One Ocean all the time. Submerged, and sooner than you would expect. As will be all of the beaches and barrier islands up the East Coast. It is time for everybody to get out, or be pulled out. Most likely without a pulse, if they are even found.
Quoting 1317. StarnzMet:

Unpopular comment I know but I thunk Matthew may not become much stronger than he is right now. The storm is just not deepening and winds not responding. The storm may just flare up here and there until Florida and make landfall around 115-120mph. Still scary but much better than a Cat 4.


The storm has closed off its eye, but it takes time for the pressure and wind to respond. There is nothing right now that supports it not intensifying
Quoting 1326. GatorWX:

That "pinhole eye" that's been gyrating around the 'center' is likely the start of the real eye. I'd imagine that's going to grow quite a bit before it nears FL. It's basically spinning around the true eye. This is a large circulation still, as it was as it neared Haiti.




I think it is trying to get itself realigned with the mid-level after the mountains knocked the tar out of him.
1337. Patrap
1338. IMA
Quoting 1293. Starhopper:


That so,,didnt happen in Andrew or Wilma? Where I was least. Thanks for sharing,

It absolutely happened with Katrina & Ike, saw it first-hand. It's eerie as can be to see the multiple notations of dead bodies found.
Quoting 1284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

naw I wont bann ya yet there is only one idiot and well its not me pinhead


Can we rename the Ignore User button to the Ignore Loser button, just for fun?
Does anyone have any insight as to why the nhc is west of the global models, but significantly east of hrrr and many local models? Global models are intended for forecasting storm scale systems like Matthew, but I recall many times (?) local models are the first to lock on to small fluctuations in track... do you think they stayed a little west of the global model spread to account for the difference?
1341. Ldog74
Hurricane Hunters indicating a closed eye is possibly the most important factor for intensification right now.
Quoting 1309. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

should bend up offshore from there taz gonna be close waiting on rapid refresh model at 1 z out too hr 18 see what it shows



OK but too me Miami FL is looking more and more at high risk
Quoting 1293. Starhopper:


That so,,didnt happen in Andrew or Wilma? Where I was least. Thanks for sharing,


Standard FEMA marking system here:Link in Link this article. Searching for bodies in compromised buildings is dangerous, so they only want to do it once.
Quoting 1312. miamivu:


NBC 6 meteorologist John Morales just said he needed to mention that a robust number of european model members bring Matthew ashore in West Palm Beach .



If that pans out, how much destruction 10 miles in from the coast? Are we talking leveled houses?
Quoting 1185. NutZilla:

Remember me posting this last week?

Is this a coincidence?

1. Black moon rising
2. 4000 days since last major hurricane (40 x 100 - It's a symbolic number meaning "a completed period.")
3. Matthew - 1st book of the Bible

And then I wrote that the worst possible track this hurricane could take was just off shore..running up the coast and maintaining its strength.

I got poofed for posting this. :)




Yes. It's a coincidence. Is it hitting FL EXACTLY 4000 days later? Nope. And Matthew isn't the 1st book of the Bible, Genesis is.

So, there's that. Remains to be seen whether it runs up the coast and maintains its strength, the models seem to suggest otherwise.
Quoting 1332. bballerf50:



Is that the HRRR model? I am not too familiar with this model. Is it a credible model, a la GFS/Euro? How often does it run?
RAP - RAPid Refresh
Quoting 1301. FunnelVortex:

Latest GFS run showing a coast-rider.





I would be ironic if this rode up the coast without the exact center coming onto land, thereby "technically" denying Florida a landfalling major hurricane.
weres my buddy that post that sped up cuban radar?
dont know how he does it, but compared to the crappy frame by frame one its magic dude!
Quoting 1317. StarnzMet:

Unpopular comment I know but I thunk Matthew may not become much stronger than he is right now. The storm is just not deepening and winds not responding. The storm may just flare up here and there until Florida and make landfall around 115-120mph. Still scary but much better than a Cat 4.


Not so much unpopular as it is unsupported. Everything from satellite images to dvorak numbers to the local mets provide evidence that this is an unfortunately strengthening storm.
Quoting 1311. Patrap:




Phoenix says wuuf!

Dex is humbled by greetings from one of the coolest dogs anywhere.
Either that, or he just passed gas.
Quoting 1326. GatorWX:

That "pinhole eye" that's been gyrating around the 'center' is likely the start of the real eye. I'd imagine that's going to grow quite a bit before it nears FL. It's basically spinning around the true eye. This is a large circulation still, as it was as it neared Haiti.




Long range Cuba radar and HH data actually shows it has a now a tight organized eye, which isn't good because that makes it easier to deepen really quickly.
1352. apm2084
What are the expected winds for the western eye wall at (potential) landfall?
Quoting 1323. nash36:


Crap....



Matthew is like the Terminator. He oozes around impediments, rebuilds, and now has broken free of Cuba's contraints. Everybody try to enjoy the next 24 hours of 'normal'.....
just an 18 hr out model updates every hour or so
Quoting 1293. Starhopper:


That so,,didnt happen in Andrew or Wilma? Where I was least. Thanks for sharing,


They definitely do it. Then a while later they come in with cadaver dogs. All this is really hard on the first responders. It's heartbreaking that so many people die unnecessarily. I've never really recovered from working Katrina.
1356. NCSCguy
Quoting 1204. SavannahStorm:



We hear it from time to time in Savannah, too. It can range from a low hum to a sustained sound of far-away thunder. I have read where the sound is actually created by wave action and can carry for hundreds of miles.

Any particular condtions to hear this? My couriosity is peaked?
Matthew is outracing Nicole....bad timing for So. FLA with the trough flattening out and ridge nosing in....
I would expect Matthew's T# to go higher in the upcoming forecasts, but the last obs I checked showed a modest 5.7 which is not really all that impressive.


1359. Patrap
Quoting 1303. pvbeachbum:



The 11 pm update has solidified my plans to not only evacuate my barrier island, but to leave Jax altogether tomorrow. We will head for Georgia and then on to Asheville on Friday. SO glad I kept my parent's home after they passed to give me somewhere to go. I will even have a place to live if my house gets too damaged here in FLA. I am sure we will have a very long drive (with 6 cats it should be very noisy as well) but I survived evacuating Andrew and Floyd and can do it again!


Honestly I'm surprised the mets aren't more worried about a potential surge backwashing up the river.

Evacing is a safe play.
1361. GatorWX
"The Fujiwhara effect, sometimes referred to as Fujiwara interaction or binary interaction, is when two nearby cyclonic vortices orbit each other and close the distance between the circulations of their corresponding low-pressure areas."

They can exist almost like magnets. This is and has been a very interesting storm to track. Could be a huge bump in our seasonal ACE, like more than half of it. (guess)
1362. hmroe
Quoting 1106. alegoguy:



Nowhere else to go. I'm in Port Saint Lucie, we put the shutters up, cleared the outside. My whole neighboorhood is staying. Lost my dad and grandfather this year, it's me and my two younger brothers and mother. I'm scared big time, we went through Jeanne, Frances and Wilma.


Please contact your local Emergency Management Office. They will help you find a safe place!
Quoting 1337. Patrap:




You can see the ridge pushing against it nicely from the east.
1364. guxtrop
Quoting 1337. Patrap:




One pushing west and the other receding...
Quoting 1345. islander44:



Yes. It's a coincidence. Is it hitting FL EXACTLY 4000 days later? Nope. And Matthew isn't the 1st book of the Bible, Genesis is.

So, there's that. Remains to be seen whether it runs up the coast and maintains its strength, the models seem to suggest otherwise.

its the first book of the new testament to be precise
Quoting 1317. StarnzMet:

Unpopular comment I know but I thunk Matthew may not become much stronger than he is right now. The storm is just not deepening and winds not responding. The storm may just flare up here and there until Florida and make landfall around 115-120mph. Still scary but much better than a Cat 4.


Yeah, winds don't seem to be that strong, but the pressure is dropping pretty fast and the satellite presentation has really improved. It's strengthening and the winds will respond.
Quoting 1029. Grothar:




I said don't say it!!!!!!!!!!!


Mr. Gro, Who had that dock cam in Cedar Key during Hermine ????
Quoting 1352. apm2084:

What are the expected winds for the western eye wall at (potential) landfall?


Cat 4.
Quoting 1363. Jedkins01:



You can see the ridge pushing against it nicely from the east.


look at that dry air moving into the Gulf too, not a good sign
Quoting 1252. GeoffreyWPB:

If I believed half of the posts on here, I would be in big trouble. Remember, this is an entertainment site. Not a place to go for life-saving information.

To some of us, this is an educational site to try to save lives if we can. Although the wonderful people on the site are very entertaining at times.
1371. Michfan
Quoting 1363. Jedkins01:



You can see the ridge pushing against it nicely from the east.


And some beautiful feather of the edges. Indicates a very healthy storm.
Also, if anyone in the Melbourne area (or any chasers) want to rendezvous with me tomorrow, I'd enjoy the company. I'll be arriving from tampa tomorrow morning. Better get to sleep lol
He is really lacking serious outflow channels, which you can see on the water vapor.
Quoting 1369. Hurricanes101:



look at that dry air moving into the Gulf too, not a good sign

COuld the put Broward and Miami-Dade more into play?
1375. Patrap
Quoting 1350. mikatnight:


Dex is humbled by greetings from one of the coolest dogs anywhere.
Either that, or he just passed gas.


Phoenix found shrimp peelings.

I understand .

😀🎑🌎👍✌
Quoting 1373. bballerf50:

He is really lacking serious outflow channels, which you can see on the water vapor.


outflow is actually very healthy
958mb now reporting
Just saw a video say Matthew is illuminati created, let me get my tin foil hat
1379. Michfan
Quoting 1376. Hurricanes101:



outflow is actually very healthy


Yeah just check the 500 mb map. It is quite obvious.
Quoting 1356. NCSCguy:


Any particular condtions to hear this? My couriosity is peaked?


Always late at night- especially if there is a high cirrus cloud deck. If you can hear the Cuban channels on the AM radio, (radio signals from overpowered Cuban stations bouncing off the atmosphere) there is a good chance the conditions exist to hear the "hum". It is very confusing because you can never really figure out what direction it is coming from.
Quoting 1356. NCSCguy:


Any particular condtions to hear this? My couriosity is peaked?


I've heard the sound of a major hurricane while it was still offshore. The conditions at the time were calm. No wind. Early in the morning...2 AM. No traffic. Airports closed. You could hear a pin drop....and in the distance what sounded like non-stop aircraft sorties taking off.

If you can stay up, give it a listen. If you hear what we're describing, see if you can get a clear recording of it! Whoever does will likely get a cookie.
1382. robj144
Quoting 1366. eljefe711:



Yeah, winds don't seem to be that strong, but the pressure is dropping pretty fast and the satellite presentation has really improved. It's strengthening and the winds will respond.


Aren't the winds on the ground in the Bahamas blowing out the instruments and they're actually pretty high already?
Quoting 1321. Xyrus2000:



He wouldn't make it that close if he gets to a CAT 5. The stronger he gets, the more northward he turns. If he gets really strong, he'd even twitch a little to the NE with the current steering.

The current projection has him climbing gradually through CAT 3 and making it to CAT 4. As he does so his path will gradually go from NW to NNW to N.


Given that it's only a ridge steering it and not westerlies from an upper trough, whether it's a 3, 4, or 5 it shouldn't impact the track much in this case. Sometimes the intensity matters a lot for track, in this case not as much. It may allow it to turn more north once reaching the course, but wouldn't change it much up to landfall.
1384. hmroe
Quoting 1347. daddyjames:



I would be ironic if this rode up the coast without the exact center coming onto land, thereby "technically" denying Florida a landfalling major hurricane.


"denying" seriously, like a lack of landfall is something to be disappointed in?
Deleted
Gulf ULL may be helping influence matthew to stay on a more westward course as well

Quoting 1364. guxtrop:



One pushing west and the other receding...
For our friends on the east coast, there are still some hotel rooms over here in Sarasota. Not a lot, but there are still some to be found. Check the smaller places, not just the big hotels. I even heard there were still a few rooms in some of the cottage-type inns on Siesta Key, so you could lay on the beach with a beer and at least pretend that all h$@! isn't breaking loose on the east side.
Quoting 1372. FLWeatherFreak91:

Also, if anyone in the Melbourne area (or any chasers) want to rendezvous with me tomorrow, I'd enjoy the company. I'll be arriving from tampa tomorrow morning. Better get to sleep lol


Please post your live stream link. I'm collecting them!
1389. Michfan
Quoting 1376. Hurricanes101:



outflow is actually very healthy


Ill reinforce this more with a picture:

The deepening is real and worrisome.
1391. Dakster
Lake O is sitting at 15.86 feet... This can't be good. I know the Florida Water Management Districts are working on flood control, I just hope they can keep the level in Lake O down below flood and levy failure stages.
1392. KalEl27
Quoting 1362. hmroe:



Please contact your local Emergency Management Office. They will help you find a safe place!

St. Lucie County has several shelters set up Link
Quoting 1385. mikatnight:




For some...or even many...this is true!
1394. pingon
Quoting 1348. chrisdscane:

weres my buddy that post that sped up cuban radar?
dont know how he does it, but compared to the crappy frame by frame one its magic dude!
that radar is out of range now.
For the northern east coast folks the panhandle, Destin, Panama City Beach has plenty of condos on the beach and are built to withstand hurricane force winds! Head on over we welcome you to our beautiful beaches...
Quoting 1387. flbeachgirl:

For our friends on the east coast, there are still some hotel rooms over here in Sarasota. Not a lot, but there are still some to be found. Check the smaller places, not just the big hotels. I even heard there were still a few rooms in some of the cottage-type inns on Siesta Key, so you could lay on the beach with a beer and a least pretend that all h$@! isn't breaking loose on the east side.
Quoting 1307. daddyjames:



There was not much to spray paint after Andrew.


These were areas close to the coast in and around Gulfport. Those areas had undergone surge. So what houses or portions of were left, had to be searched house to house. The paint was to keep them from covering ground they had already searched.

I was privileged to be able to do some relief efforts over there immediately after Katrina. I thought Ivan was bad here in Pensacola. Katrina in Southern Mississippi was Ivan times ten. The areas close to the coast looked like an atom bomb went off. The amount of loss and suffering was unbelievable and heart-breaking. This is one of the poorer areas of the country, so a lot of folks couldn't afford to just pick up and leave. I forget the exact total, but I think more than 200 were killed in Southern Mississippi during Katrina.
Quoting 1322. SFLWeatherman:

00Z RGEM way south and West from 12Z


Similiar to GFS
Huzzah!!! Power's back on for a while .... lol
Quoting 1376. Hurricanes101:



outflow is actually very healthy

Why doesn't it show up on the water vapor imagery? It don't see the polar channels it had in the central Caribbean.
1400. MahFL
Quoting 1317. StarnzMet:

Unpopular comment I know but I thunk Matthew may not become much stronger than he is right now. The storm is just not deepening and winds not responding. The storm may just flare up here and there until Florida and make landfall around 115-120mph. Still scary but much better than a Cat 4.


It is deepening, it went down to 959 from 961. Cuba is still inhibiting the inflow from the south. As he moves NW he will strengthen.
Quoting 1384. hmroe:



"denying" seriously, like a lack of landfall is something to be disappointed in?


Well, if you are going to have the damage, may as well snap that record of no landfalling majors.
Quoting 1398. BahaHurican:

Huzzah!!! Power's back on for a while .... lol


Just in time to see the new GFS run :)
If the pressure is in the vicinity of 956mb by the next eyewall penetration then I'm afraid we will wake up to find a very serious cyclone. As the winds start to mix down to the surface I could see Matthew being somehwere in the 135-145mph range as it approaches SFLA tomorrow evening.
Quoting 1387. flbeachgirl:

For our friends on the east coast, there are still some hotel rooms over here in Sarasota. Not a lot, but there are still some to be found. Check the smaller places, not just the big hotels. I even heard there were still a few rooms in some of the cottage-type inns on Siesta Key, so you could lay on the beach with a beer and a least pretend that all h$@! isn't breaking loose on the east side.

Also, don't forget to look for Bed & Breakfast or Resort when looking up places to evacuate. Most people look for hotel or motel.. so often there are vacancies at these other places. Try that.
Quoting 1393. NutZilla:



For some...or even many...this is true!
Yes and for thousands more it's a LOS
Quoting 1396. natcap31:



These were areas close to the coast in and around Gulfport. Those areas had undergone surge. So what houses or portions of were left, had to be searched house to house. The paint was to keep them from covering ground they had already searched.

I was privileged to be able to do some relief efforts over there immediately after Katrina. I thought Ivan was bad here in Pensacola. Katrina in Southern Mississippi was Ivan times ten. The areas close to the coast looked like an atom bomb went off. The amount of loss and suffering was unbelievable and heart-breaking. This is one of the poorer areas of the country, so a lot of folks couldn't afford to just pick up and leave. I forget the exact total, but I think more than 200 were killed in Southern Mississippi during Katrina.


I was only thinking of South Florida
I have a really bad feeling about this CAT 4 situation:
So many miles of at coast at risk of catastropic damage
... and... so many bad decisions

NHC is predicting CAT 4... here's what I picture: even well constructed buildings will suffer major damage or collapse, most trees will be stripped of all branches, there wont be any gas (or gas stations) but that won't matter because your car and generator have been destroyed, no food or water (destroyed in storm), storm surge will be significant and you could find yourself being swept out to sea, no medical support for days, the infrastructure will be heavily damaged so relief operations will be impeded, deseases (e.g. cholera, tetanus, and now zika), no sanitation (i.e. more deseases). I could go on...

In short, if you do get hit by a Cat 4 hurricane, surviving the storm will be a challenge. If you do survive, you'll be in a real pickle for 2 weeks - most likely longer.
Quoting 1355. TropicTraveler:



They definitely do it. Then a while later they come in with cadaver dogs. All this is really hard on the first responders. It's heartbreaking that so many people die unnecessarily. I've never really recovered from working Katrina.


That's rough to hear TropicTraveler.

I know the marking is now the standard for the FEMA and state task force disaster teams as well as many other SAR groups. A lot of lessons in disaster response were learned in the early to mid 2000's with 9/11 and the run of hurricanes that included Katrina, Rita and Ike. It is now not uncommon to see the orange "X" at tornado sites in the midwest, Texas and parts of the southeast.
Quoting 1391. Dakster:

Lake O is sitting at 15.86 feet... This can't be good. I know the Florida Water Management Districts are working on flood control, I just hope they can keep the level in Lake O down below flood and levy failure stages.


For some context:

Quoting 1385. mikatnight:




Honestly I don't think you meant harm with this but given how serious this could be for the FL east coast, this isn't appropriate.
Matthew has alot of work to do to get back where he was intensity wise. T 5.7 and really not looking as healthy
as he once was, but should be ramping up again soon.



1412. Tarjf
Quoting 1369. Hurricanes101:



look at that dry air moving into the Gulf too, not a good sign


What is that a sign of? (Sorry new to all this & curious)
Quoting 1317. StarnzMet:

Unpopular comment I know but I thunk Matthew may not become much stronger than he is right now. The storm is just not deepening and winds not responding. The storm may just flare up here and there until Florida and make landfall around 115-120mph. Still scary but much better than a Cat 4.
maybe...or he may overshoot into Miami like he did at 75W and take a hard right to get back to 15 miles off the coast and hug it for 250 miles
Quoting 1305. MeteorologistTV:

Latest GFS is over central Andros and further west.


Bigger impact in S.FL or no?
1415. Patrap
1416. pottery
OK, it's Midnight. Tomorrow is here. I'm going to sleep. Before I turn into a Pumpkin or something....
Thoughts and Good Wishes to everyone in the path of this storm.
Aww, look...They joined their 1012mb contour. What a cute couple. Wish Mathew looked like that right now.

1418. miamivu
Quoting 1344. SteveInBoston:



If that pans out, how much destruction 10 miles in from the coast? Are we talking leveled houses?

I defer to those on here with more educated guesses...I have scant experience with storms of this magnitude...however, given it will be moving NNW at your point, as opposed to west, might mean less damage 10 miles inland. Andrew came in west/wsw and crossed the peninsula...also nearly all forecasts will have you on the left, weaker, side of the storm...and it was both the left and right sides of Andrew that resulted in the images you're imagining...hardly anyone is predicting the storm will cross WPB county.
Steering as Matthew strengthens
1420. GatorWX
Quoting 1286. BahaHurican:

On my phone now.
Wind gusts are starting to in increase. Looks like onset of hurricane force winds is a few hours away, so I am going to try to get some sleep. Will check in around 2 a.m or by 5 a.m. latest, technology permitting... 👍👌



Stay safe out there, ma'am! Wish you absolute luck! This, imo, has a lot of potential, just in the next 24. It seems to be moving fast enough, water depth may not be a big impediment to strengthening. It looks very good on sats at this hour, considering what it looked like just 12-18 hours ago. Stay well, Baha!!!
1421. FOREX
Matthew's current movement will take him south of Miami and into the Gulf.If there are atmospheric reasons that keep in out of the Gulf,then Miami may take a direct hit.Hopefully the NHC track is correct.
1422. Patrap
Looks like we are in a very brief lull, and the powers that be [ha!] turned the electricity back on .....

Going to download bunches of material ....
Quoting 1393. NutZilla:



For some...or even many...this is true!


I keep telling myself, don't stay up late & make dumb posts.
Do I listen?
No I don't.
It is a somber thought. Good luck to all...
Quoting 1398. BahaHurican:

Huzzah!!! Power's back on for a while .... lol
then there was light and it was good

hello baha hope u are well considering the tempest in your backyard
1426. Drakoen
HRRR 3z out to hr 4 looks like it wants to target central or even southern Andros
Quoting 1410. Jedkins01:



Honestly I don't think you meant harm with this but given how serious this could be for the South east coast...


1428. Grothar
Quoting 1367. OcalaGator:



Mr. Gro, Who had that dock cam in Cedar Key during Hermine ????


I don't remember
Quoting 1360. Xyrus2000:



Honestly I'm surprised the mets aren't more worried about a potential surge backwashing up the river.

Evacing is a safe play.


My daughter wanted to stay (the invincibility of a 20-something) but when she realized our house may become an aquarium between the ocean and the intracoastal, she reconsidered.

I hope we can get everything and the 6 cats packed up quickly enough tomorrow, I am sure it will be a much longer drive than usual based on my last two evac experiences. For Andrew, it took me almost 10 hours to get from Ft Lauderdale to Orlando with two toddlers and a very pregnant mom. Then for Floyd it took 9 hours from Jax to Tallahassee. Hoping we have enough gas and that stations aren't out on the way.
Quoting 1342. thetwilightzone:



OK but too me Miami FL is looking more and more at high risk


Twilightzone can you elaborate on this with some science? Writing from Miami here... just trying to wrap my head around your analysis
Quoting 1426. Drakoen:

HRRR 3z out to hr 4 looks like it wants to target central or even southern Andros
That's what I've been thinking. There just isn't sufficient northerly component in it's motion to clear the island.
Quoting 1423. BahaHurican:

Looks like we are in a very brief lull, and the powers that be [ha!] turned the electricity back on .....

Going to download bunches of material ....
Where exactly are you located?
Quoting 1357. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

Matthew is outracing Nicole....bad timing for So. FLA with the trough flattening out and ridge nosing in....

How far south?
Is the dry air heading west towards Matthew, the High Pressure? If it is it looks like it might nudge Matthew more west.
Quoting 1416. pottery:

OK, it's Midnight. Tomorrow is here. I'm going to sleep. Before I turn into a Pumpkin or something....
Thoughts and Good Wishes to everyone in the path of this storm.
well as long as ya don't turn into a troll we should be good

nite pottery see ya after sunrise
Yes, Gulfport, Pearl, and Pass Christian, Mississippi were leveled. In the 9th ward of New Orleans, Hundreds (if not thousands) of houses had the orange X on them with numbers in each quadrant of the X. It was extremely disturbing.
Quoting 1421. FOREX:

Matthew's current movement will take him south of Miami and into the Gulf.If there are atmospheric reasons that keep in out of the Gulf,then Miami may take a direct hit.Hopefully the NHC track is correct.




Based on what? At it's current motion, it will pass east of Andros Island.
Quoting 1412. Tarjf:



What is that a sign of? (Sorry new to all this & curious)


dry air is leaving the state of Florida. I feel it is a sign the storm could move a bit farther west along its track. The turn will still happen though
Quoting 1426. Drakoen:

HRRR 3z out to hr 4 looks like it wants to target central or even southern Andros


Drak, please tell me more about this model. Is it something you rely on as credible?
If you have friends or relatives living on Florida on Georgia East Coast, and you know they have pets... call and offer to house their pets if they evacuate. Often people stay home simply because the hotels and motels don't take pets, nor will many shelters. They don't want to abandon their dog or cat.
If you make the offer, that might give them incentive or ability to leave.
Quoting 1367. OcalaGator:


Mr. Gro, Who had that dock cam in Cedar Key during Hermine ????





Quoting 1428. Grothar:



I don't remember



I believe it was Mark Suddith? Or somethng like that.
So, you live along the Treasure Coast, you've chosen to not evacuate, and you've sheltered in a concrete structure like a hotel for the duration of this event. This is what you can expect from a major hurricane:

1. Scroll up and look at that video from Cuba Dr. Masters posted. That's what the area around your hotel might look like after Matthew is done with it.

2. Hour upon hour of heavy wind...with gusts strong enough to knock out the window in your room. At that moment, the hurricane is inside with you.

3. A storm surge from hell itself. The E & NE winds of the hurricane eyewall are going to push mountains of water onshore. Your hotel cannot run away from water. It could be destroyed by it. (Refer to the video from Cuba again.)

4. Here's the best part of your stay on the beach. After the hurricane, you're likely going to be stuck there...with nothing. No electricity, no water, no food...and no bridge to escape onto the mainland.
1443. Patrap
This is bad,bad,mojo.



Quoting 1432. Tornado6042008X:

Where exactly are you located?

in the Bahamas Nassau or close to it I beleive
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1446. 996tt
Here we go again. Time to wax up the gun. Everyone stay safe.
Quoting 1418. miamivu:


I defer to those on here with more educated guesses...I have scant experience with storms of this magnitude...however, given it will be moving NNW at your point, as opposed to west, might mean less damage 10 miles inland. Andrew came in west/wsw and crossed the peninsula...also nearly all forecasts will have you on the left, weaker, side of the storm...and it was the both left and right sides of Andrew that resulted in the images you're imagining...hardly anyone is predicting the storm will cross WPB county.

Thanks. I'm safe in Boston but I have family down there. Couldn't get them to leave earlier, now there's no gas. Power outages are guaranteed but I keep reading all these unattributed posts about structural collapse!
1448. GPTGUY
Quoting 1428. Grothar:



I don't remember


Mark Sudduth Hurricanetrack.com
1449. IDTH
New blog
the current thinking is Space Coast (cape/melbourne)....I see it making landfall south of there along the treasure coast.


Quoting 1433. kinsingmonster:


How far south?

Quoting 1419. homegirl:

Steering as Matthew strengthens

Looks like he may go either way.
Quoting 1421. FOREX:

Matthew's current movement will take him south of Miami and into the Gulf.If there are atmospheric reasons that keep in out of the Gulf,then Miami may take a direct hit.Hopefully the NHC track is correct.


Can you explain your reasoning? You have been hyping up worst case scenarios all week...
The NHC should have put at least the NE part of MiamiDade county under a Hurricane Warning. If Matthew comes in further to the south they may regret not doing so.
@hmroe @Jedkins

Hey, just because people may type or post things that are "not serious" does not mean we are not concerned.
My entire family and friends - from longer than some of you are old - are under the gun.
Humor sometimes an effective way to help deal with a situation that is indeed extremely serious. So, lighten up just a bit.
Quoting 1428. Grothar:



I don't remember


I think TWC set that up
Quoting 1436. katadman:

Yes, Gulfport, Pearl, and Pass Christian, Mississippi were leveled. In the 9th ward of New Orleans, Hundreds (if not thousands) of houses had the orange X on them with numbers in each quadrant of the X. It was extremely disturbing.


I wonder if there's a limit on surge with the way our continental shelf is shaped. The East Coast record for surge was around 21 feet by Hugo in 1989 in McClellanville, SC. Second place is 18 feet in Calabash, NC during Hazel, 1954.
1457. NCSCguy
Quoting 1380. SavannahStorm:



Always late at night- especially if there is a high cirrus cloud deck. If you can hear the Cuban channels on the AM radio, (radio signals from overpowered Cuban stations bouncing off the atmosphere) there is a good chance the conditions exist to hear the "hum". It is very confusing because you can never really figure out what direction it is coming from.

Just tried it had to walk a bit to get away from my neighbors air conditioning unit but i think i could hear it. Very faint, easily overpowered by other sounds but it was a very low pitched constant rumble. Or I'm just hearing things idk.
1458. Tarjf
Quoting 1438. Hurricanes101:



dry air is leaving the state of Florida. I feel it is a sign the storm could move a bit farther west along its track. The turn will still happen though


Would this cause them to shift the track? I'm in Tampa & I want no part of this storm
worked all night doing the best i could. so fri. the house is suppose to get ripped up? big progress today! good night all from e cen Florida
Quoting 1407. snow2fire:

I have a really bad feeling about this CAT 4 situation:
So many miles of at coast at risk of catastropic damage
... and... so many bad decisions

NHC is predicting CAT 4... here's what I picture: even well constructed buildings will suffer major damage or collapse, most trees will be stripped of all branches, there wont be any gas (or gas stations) but that won't matter because your car and generator have been destroyed, no food or water (destroyed in storm), storm surge will be significant and you could find yourself being swept out to sea, no medical support for days, the infrastructure will be heavily damaged so relief operations will be impeded, deseases (e.g. cholera, tetanus, and now zika), no sanitation (i.e. more deseases). I could go on...

In short, if you do get hit by a Cat 4 hurricane, surviving the storm will be a challenge. If you do survive, you'll be in a real pickle for 2 weeks - most likely longer.


You certainly have a flair for the dramatic.
1461. Ed22
Quoting 1443. Patrap:

This is bad,bad,mojo.




By looks a high end category four.
Quoting 1412. Tarjf:



What is that a sign of? (Sorry new to all this & curious)


Matthew is sandwiched between two high pressure systems, which are helping to steer the hurricane, and can be see on that image by dry air (red). The one in the Gulf (on the L) appears to be retreating a little bit, which may open the door for Matthew to come in shallow on its forecast track, or move more to the W and possible end up further south along the Florida coast than what is currently forecast.

Don't want to read too much into any short term activity (trend) though, but something to watch.
Quoting 1294. IDTH:


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 934.3mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.6


If anyone is curious as to why there is such a large discrepancy between recon and what's being reported by the ADT, turns out the error bars on the analysis can end up being quite large depending on the circumstances.

The ADT will likely settle down and more closely match recon obs when the eye clears out.
1464. Grothar
This is the00z GFS, but a few of the latest EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOSER HIT NEARE To Palm Beach


Notice the stream of high cloud flow from the coastline of the east coast of Florida from south to north. You can also see the ridge over Grand Bahama and Great Abaco nosing in, but the axis is becoming more ese/se to wnw/nw. You can also see the ULL over the Western Caribbean that is acting somewhat as a pivot for Matthew. This is reflected well in the 500 mb. Geopotential Height and Normalized Anomaly. The flow will be changing as the trough approaches from the west. I suppose now it comes down to timing.



Quoting 1463. Xyrus2000:



If anyone is curious as to why there is such a large discrepancy between recon and what's being reported by the ADT, turns out the error bars on the analysis can end up being quite large depending on the circumstances.

The ADT will likely settle down and more closely match recon obs when the eye clears out.
Yep. 934 about 20mb off.
Quoting 1440. RetainingH2O:

If you have friends or relatives living on Florida on Georgia East Coast, and you know they have pets... call and offer to house their pets if they evacuate. Often people stay home simply because the hotels and motels don't take pets, nor will many shelters. They don't want to abandon their dog or cat.
If you make the offer, that might give them incentive or ability to leave.

Many hotels accept pets during evacuations. I once rode up in the elevator at the Orlando Sheraton with a snake, a cat, two birds and a pit bull. Also there a provisions for pets now at many shelters. People died because they didn't want to leave their pets so the rules changed.
1468. evsnds
Quoting 1452. JohnCaesar:



Can you explain your reasoning? You have been hyping up worst case scenarios all week...


He has none. He's looking at the water vapor imagery and seeing it moving with a westward component, all the while ignoring the factors preventing him from going into the gulf.
Quoting 1355. TropicTraveler:



They definitely do it. Then a while later they come in with cadaver dogs. All this is really hard on the first responders. It's heartbreaking that so many people die unnecessarily. I've never really recovered from working Katrina.


Many rescue / recovery workers never do. PTSD and suicide rates are terrible in the group. Another reason for people to evacuate. You won't be someone's 30-year nightmare.
1470. IDTH
NEW blog abandon now
Quoting 1383. Jedkins01:



Given that it's only a ridge steering it and not westerlies from an upper trough, whether it's a 3, 4, or 5 it shouldn't impact the track much in this case. Sometimes the intensity matters a lot for track, in this case not as much. It may allow it to turn more north once reaching the course, but wouldn't change it much up to landfall.
Jedkins01 is right.  The Atlantic high is the only only real steering factor influencing a western
movement at all right now. later in the forecast the dynamics may change, but the projections
of the Atlantic High westward is all people in Florida should be looking at if they wanna know
how close Matthew will get.  If Matthew's forward speed were to slow as the ridge is building
westward, you would see a certain Florida impact, but it looks like Matthew is moving faster N
than the ridge is moving westward and he going to shoot the gap and recurve NW on approach
to NE Florida right now.

The Hurricane Center Forecast is 100% on the money right now in my opinion. They are the experts
 for a reason, and they have got this one right trust me.  
 
Quoting 1461. Ed22:

By looks a high end category four.


By recon, it's a mid to high category 3.
Quoting 1464. Grothar:

This is the00z GFS, but a few of the latest EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOSER HIT NEARE To Palm Beach



Matthew is very finesse. Like a determined athlete running a marathon, you just can't knock him down.
Quoting 1367. OcalaGator:



Mr. Gro, Who had that dock cam in Cedar Key during Hermine ????
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF
1475. evsnds
Yeah, okay CMC you're drunk.

They may not be in an evac zone. There are parts of Port St. Lucie that are very inland. If everyone in all of the hurricane warning zone evacuated it would be pure chaos.

Quoting 1362. hmroe:



Please contact your local Emergency Management Office. They will help you find a safe place!
1477. hmroe
Quoting 1453. HurriHistory:

The NHC should have put at least the NE part of MiamiDade county under a Hurricane Warning. If Matthew comes in further to the south they may regret not doing so.


I'm pretty sure they are aware of the potential. There is already a margin of error built in to the cone. People should already be prepared regardless (it's been hurricane season for 4 months already) and local Mets would be warning people if they disagree with the track.
Wow just got a shock, power has been restored to the eastern end of New Providence, don't know for how long as squall lines continue to swing by.
1479. FOREX
Quoting 1452. JohnCaesar:



Can you explain your reasoning? You have been hyping up worst case scenarios all week...

I'VE MADE VERY FEW POSTS, AND EVEN FEWER IN PREDICTION.MOST OF MYPOSTS THIS WEEK WERE CRITICIZING TROLLS OF WHICH U WEREONE OF THEM IF I RECALL. I HAVE NO SCIENTIFIC REASONING BESIDES MOTHER NATURE RIGHT NOW,MATTHEW IS MOVING SOUTH OF MIAMI.TAKE A RULER FROM HIS EYE N DRAW A STRAIGHT LINE.IF THERE R CONDITIONS AHEAD TO MOVE HIM NNW,LIKE I SAID,THEN SO BE IT.
New blog folks . . . move along
1481. hmroe
Quoting 1476. bocahurricane:

They may not be in an evac zone. There are parts of Port St. Lucie that are very inland. If everyone in all of the hurricane warning zone evacuated it would be pure chaos.




Then they can help ease fears by providing specific local facts about the storm.
1482. HrDelta
Quoting 1456. win1gamegiantsplease:



I wonder if there's a limit on surge with the way our continental shelf is shaped. The East Coast record for surge was around 21 feet by Hugo in 1989 in McClellanville, SC. Second place is 18 feet in Calabash, NC during Hazel, 1954.


In theory, New York's could get higher than both because of topography. It would require a category 3 or 4 to hit the city like either Sandy, or the Norfolk-Long Island Hurricane of 1821, so it is unlikely to happen.
Quoting 1370. TropicTraveler:


To some of us, this is an educational site to try to save lives if we can. Although the wonderful people on the site are very entertaining at times.
I always seem to end up at that Darth Vader building in West Palm, looking north at that restored neighboorhood...just never under 10 feet of water though...this one is definitely not a drill. Dr. Masters said $10Billion, if it runs up the coast as a Cat 4, try $100B+. It is my job to know these things.
Sorry folks. I deleted it (before anyone else quotes me!!! gaaaa)
Been a long day getting ready.
Time gets compressed.
More to do tomorrow.
Keep hopin Matt gets the memo - right turn Clyde
"the Uncertainty Cone is not tailored for any specific storm..."
A landfall here would be epic
No cat 4 since the 1940s. when they were more common.
I fear every year. is it time?
Floyd was the last time we had a big scare.
Another test of people's emergency management system.
And their luck. And my luck.
And The Blog.
Quoting 1453. HurriHistory:

The NHC should have put at least the NE part of MiamiDade county under a Hurricane Warning. If Matthew comes in further to the south they may regret not doing so.


They actually did. The Hurricane Warning extends to Golden Beach, which is the most NE part of Miami-Dade county.
1486. FOREX
Quoting 1468. evsnds:



He has none. He's looking at the water vapor imagery and seeing it moving with a westward component, all the while ignoring the factors preventing him from going into the gulf.
READ MY ORIGINAL POST GENIUS.
1487. tom1516
Quoting 1420. GatorWX:



Stay safe out there, ma'am! Wish you absolute luck! This, imo, has a lot of potential, just in the next 24. It seems to be moving fast enough, water depth may not be a big impediment to strengthening. It looks very good on sats at this hour, considering what it looked like just 12-18 hours ago. Stay well, Baha!!! Stay safe BAHA!!!!!!
Quoting 1263. natcap31:



Haha, going to TWC for weather is like going to CNN for news. All fluff.

TWC = InfoTainment. When TWC first aired it was groundbreaking, professional. I'm disappointed to what it's become; I don't tune in anymore.
Matthew is beginning rapid intensification. Residents in Nassau should be prepared for a storm near Category 5 intensity.
Nicole is actually looking to play a more significant role in bullying the Atlantic Ridge.
She is getting near Hurricane status, which was not predicted -- at all.


matthew is outracing her unfortunately...

Quoting 1490. TropicalNonsense2:

Nicole is actually looking to play a more significant role in bullying the Atlantic Ridge.
She is getting near Hurricane status, which was not predicted -- at all.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/ 2015/03/10/why-this-florida-scientist-had-to-remov e-the-term-climate-change-from-her-study/

On Sunday, the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting, which broke the news in a story that quickly ricocheted across the nation, connected the protocol directly to the office of Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican who has long voiced suspicion of man-made climate change despite overwhelming scientific consensus it exists — not to mention indications of rising sea levels in southeastern Florida.
Quoting 1492. TroubleWithTriffids:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp / 2015/03/10/why-this-florida-scientist-had-to-remov e-the-term-climate-change-from-her-study/

On Sunday, the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting, which broke the news in a story that quickly ricocheted across the nation, connected the protocol directly to the office of Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican who has long voiced suspicion of man-made climate change despite overwhelming scientific consensus it exists — not to mention indications of rising sea levels in southeastern Florida.

first it was an new ice age .. then it was global warming .. now its "climate change" .. so many flipflops you might as well be an nhc hurricane model
1494. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago
Hurricane #Matthew has now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than did the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.
1495. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 3h3 hours ago Kailua, HI
#Matthew has been major hurricane for 5.75 days - tied for 10th w/ Hurricane Beulah for major hurricane length in satellite era (since 1966)
1496. Loduck
Quoting 1428. Grothar:



I don't remember
I think it was Mark Suddath @Hurricanetrack. He is also going to be putting cams along the path of Matthew as well. He also has great daily updates on youtube at the same above!
Quoting 1217. kinsingmonster:


I concur. I think it is purely political. Miami is know all around the world and dependent on tourism. With the Zika outbreak and the notion of a hurricane in "Miami-Dade", tourism could be hurt. I thin that is precisely the reason and I agree that it is deliberate. A public record request must be made when this is all said and done.


I was preaching about this yesterday. There is absolutely no reason that Miami Dade was not issued a Hurricane Warning yesterday. It's careless. Will they end up with hurricane force wins in Dade? Maybe.... probably not..... but they are cutting it very very close.
in response to "WeathermanWannaBe"

What if Matthew hits a FL Nuclear Plant?