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Matthew not strengthening; Igor is Newfoundland's worst hurricane in memory

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:53 PM GMT on September 24, 2010

Tropical Storm Matthew is bearing down on the Nicaragua/Honduras coast, but wind shear is keeping the storm from intensifying this morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is in Matthew, and found the center pressure had risen slightly, to 1002 mb, at 8:24am EDT. Top winds seen at the surface remained at 50 mph, but winds at their flight level of 5,000 feet peaked at an unimpressive 48 mph. Satellite loops show that Matthew's heavy thunderstorm activity is mostly on the storm's south side, and this is due to strong upper level winds out of the northeast creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the storm. Heavy rain squalls have moved ashore over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras, as seen in the latest observations from Puerto Lempira, Honduras.


Figure 1. The forecast radius of tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph (dark green colors) and 58+ mph winds (lighter yellow-green colors) taken from the official 5am EDT forecast for Tropical Storm Matthew. The image was generated from our wundermap for Tropical Storm Matthew with the "hurricane" layer turned on with "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked.

Short range forecast for Matthew
An upper-level high pressure system lies to the northwest of Matthew, near the coast of Belize. The clockwise flow of air around this high will bring a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over Matthew today and Saturday morning. There is some dry air to the north of Matthew, and the shear may be able to drive some of this dry air into the storm, slowing intensification and keeping Matthew below hurricane strength before it makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua late tonight. Matthew's passage over the northeast corner of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras should also act to disrupt the storm. The terrain is not mountainous in this region, though, and Matthew should be able to reorganize quickly once it emerges back into the Western Caribbean on Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, Matthew will move more underneath the upper-level high, resulting in much lower shear. The SHIPS model forecasts that shear will fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. This drop in shear may allow for intensification of Matthew into a Category 1 hurricane before it hits Belize on Sunday morning. However, a strong tropical storm is more likely.

Impact of Matthew on Nicaragua, Honduras, and Belize
Tropical storm force winds from Matthew are forecast to extend outwards from the center between 40 - 80 nm (46 - 92 miles) as the storm moves along the north coast of Honduras this weekend. Matthew's initial forward speed of 15 mph will slow to 10 mph by Sunday morning. In combination, these factors should bring tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to Guanaja, Roatan, and the central Honduras coast beginning between 4am - 8am EDT Saturday. These winds will last about 6 - 12 hours. Given the current weak state of Matthew, I doubt winds in excess of 50 mph will be seen on the Honduras coast as the storm passes to the north. The coast of Belize will be subject to a longer period of strong winds, since Matthew will be moving slower when it hits Belize, and may be a stronger storm. Expect 39+ mph winds to arrive at the coast of Belize between 6 - 10 pm EDT Saturday night, and persist for 12 - 16 hours, near where the center of Matthew makes landfall. A good way to compute these times of arrival and duration is to use our wundermap with the hurricane wind radius forecast layer turned on (Figure 1.) The main danger for Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and northern Guatemala will be from heavy rains, not wind. The forecast rain amounts of 6 - 10 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 inches, will cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. Belize is probably most at risk from Matthew's rains.

Long range forecast for Matthew
Matthew is being forced just north of due west by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will keep the storm moving at 15 mph through Saturday. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause Matthew to slow to just 5 mph by Sunday night. The models are divided into two basic camps on what might happen next. One solution, championed by the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models, has Matthew continuing inland once it makes landfall in Belize Sunday morning or afternoon. This solution means Matthew would likely dissipate over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The other solution, given by the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models, predicts Matthew will move inland over Belize for a day or so, then drift northeast and pop back out into the Western Caribbean sometime Monday or Tuesday. The key to Matthew's long range track depends upon how it interacts with a tropical low pressure area developing in the Eastern Pacific, and the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. With steering currents expected to be weak, and small changes in Matthew's track making the difference between the storm being over land or water, the long range forecast for the storm is highly uncertain. It Matthew lingers in the Western Caribbean off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for several days, the potential exists for the storm to grow into a large and dangerous major hurricane. Sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the Caribbean in this region are greater than the previous record highs set in 2005 (Figure 2), so there is plenty of fuel for a hurricane.

>
Figure 2. Total oceanic heat content (called the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, or TCHP) in kilojoules per square centimeter (kJ/cm^2), for September 22 2010 (top) and the previous record high for this time of year, set in 2005 (bottom.) Category 5 Hurricane Wilma of 2005, the strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic, reached its peak strength over the "bullseye" of high TCHP over the Western Caribbean. TCHP values are even higher this year than when Wilma formed, and TCHP in excess of 90 kJ/cm^2 (orange colors) is commonly associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Saturday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas to discuss, and the GFS and NOGAPS models have backed off on their predictions of a new tropical depression forming in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now.

Hurricane Igor: Newfoundland's worst hurricane in memory
Newfoundland, Canada continues to reel from the effects of the punishing blow delivered by Hurricane Igor on Tuesday. The island remains devastated with many communities isolated by washed out bridges and roads. Power is impossible to restore in many areas since service crews cannot get there. The entire eastern portion of Newfoundland was cut off from the rest of the province due to a massive ravine that carved its way through the Trans-Canada Highway (Figure 3.) The road was re-opened yesterday using a temporary bridge. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada puts it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 3. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane, and brought sustained winds above hurricane force of 76 mph to two stations, Cape Pine and Bonavista. The storm's peak wind gust was 107 mph at Cape Pine. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Nearby St. Lawrence recorded its greatest 1-day rainfall event in its history, 238 mm (9.37".) Many other stations recorded 150+ mm of rain, making Igor a 1-in-100 year rainfall event. Igor's record rains were due, in part, to the storm's large size, and to the record warm sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic that allowed large amounts of water vapor to evaporate into the air surrounding Igor. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland. Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage may exceed $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in its history.

While it is unusual for full-fledged hurricanes to affect Newfoundland, It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all-time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 4. Igor caused drastic beach erosion at Elbow Beach in Bermuda. Image credit: Extreme weather photographer Mike Theiss. He has a nice web page documenting his experience with the storm on Bermuda.

Next post
If there's a significant change to Matthew or to the forecast, I'll have an update this afternoon. Otherwise, I'll post an update Saturday by noon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. WxLogic
Quoting breald:


CMC? Canadian Model?


Correct... but as Ike mentioned further to the east.
1002. kwgirl
Quoting snapper01:
I am heading south of Punte Allen (south of Cancun) for a week starting October 1st for a flyfishing trip. What do all you pro's think about how the weather could be during my trip? At this point it looks we may have dodged a bullet. What are you thought? Thanks !! My actual location would be 19.30N-87.25W
Take your raincoat. Still the rainy season here and there.
Quoting afj3:
Does anybody have that FSU link to all the models? Not on my computer where I have it bookmarked Thanks!



Link
12hr rain rate
Quoting Floodman:


I think Levi explained it wquite well...Levi32, you are an amzing young man


Levi32 needs to work for NHC! I have learned so much from him.
1013. afj3
Quoting ILwthrfan:



Link

Thanks!
That is one scenarion. If you really look at it the models change day by day they aren't 100% reiable.
People CAN'T be letting their guard down about Matthew. 

Expect the Unexpected.  The long-term track is still highly uncertain.

I hope to post a Graphics Update later tonight.
1016. kwgirl
Well, it seems that the storm is dying and because I had to really work today (OMG!!) I guess I missed all of the death throes. Is that why the blog is so...absent of folks?
kwgirl you work in new town or old town???
Quoting Skyepony:
12hr rain rate


Oh-oh. This may get bad. Really, really bad. And that's not hype or doomcasting; that's a climatologic/geographic fact...
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

Matthew - Is close to landfall and HH is completed its tasking. Now the wait begins... which way does it go... and whats it going to do.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Its Going to Book a Plane Back to Africa
Matthew on land now its dance and have a parly.
1024. WXHEAD
Quoting kwgirl:
Well, it seems that the storm is dying and because I had to really work today (OMG!!) I guess I missed all of the death throes. Is that why the blog is so...absent of folks?


Mathew is like Bruce Willis in a Die Hard movie. Don't count him out yet. He may be dying, but there is going to be something come out of the Caribbean and it won't be Jamaican Rum only. Check Levi's blog, he explains it well and there's pictures too.
1028. Patrap
Going to be interesting after Matthew decouples where the new low pressure forms and future Nicole may head.
1034. Patrap
Matthew Floater - Visible Loop

TFP's are available
nws of Tampa

IN THE WAKE OF TS MATTHEW MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN
CARRIBEAN AND MOVING INTO THE GULF BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARDS
WESTERN FLORIDA AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. REMAINING SKEPTICAL ABOUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM THAT HAS YET TO DEVELOP...SO
WILL WAIT UNTIL MODEL RUNS DEVELOP MORE
CONSISTENCY BEFORE
INCORPORATING INTO THE FORECAST.
There is no way Matthew makes it back into the Caribbean with the weak steering currents that will be in place. The focus of attention will be shifting E in the coming days.
1040. tacoman
i agree totally...
Quoting Jeff9641:
nws of Tampa

IN THE WAKE OF TS MATTHEW MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN
CARRIBEAN AND MOVING INTO THE GULF BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARDS
WESTERN FLORIDA AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. REMAINING SKEPTICAL ABOUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM THAT HAS YET TO DEVELOP...SO
WILL WAIT UNTIL MODEL RUNS DEVELOP MORE
CONSISTENCY BEFORE
INCORPORATING INTO THE FORECAST.


agree!
1043. Ookla
Does anyone know why the computer models and the ensemble models of Matthew are so different? The computer models have him staying in Central America, while the ensemble models have him break north along a number of tracks that mostly hit Florida.
???
Quoting Buhdog:
It is still funny to me just a tad... I mean when you really think about it. Reminds me of tiger woods and his fall...

Storm Woods...kind of has ring to it.

conditions in Cape Coral FL.

87.5 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 73%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the SSE

Wind Gust: 12.0 mph
Pressure: 29.99 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 100 °F
Are you in Cape Coral?
Since making landfall the storm has built a great deal on heavy convection to its northeast.

If the 12Z ECMWF verifies the US escapes again with another recurve lol Hopefully we will have some better agreement when we actually start to get development from future Nicole.
1047. Buhdog
Quoting masonsnana:
Are you in Cape Coral?


yup...i think i am one of the oldest SWFL members here(as a member not age), but mostly lurk. I am a comedy guy and Destin Jeff does enough shtick for us all! My eyes are glued to the carib!
I must say its the best he's looked so far, but still those mts. are going to have a say in that tonight.
Quoting StormChaser81:
Since making landfall the storm has built a great deal on heavy convection to its northeast.



That could be the genesis of our next system combined with the convection SE of Jamaica.
1051. WxLogic
All right here we go...

18Z 850MB Vorticity:



Notice at 70W and 80W the increase of vorticity attempting to go around Matthew. I expect these 2 areas to combine with the Mid level vorticity moving out of Haiti to provide the necessary lift for a possible secondary area of low pressure:

500MB



We'll need another 3HRs to validate this observation but also notice that the low level vorticity (850MB) is moving on a general WNW heading while the mid level vorticity (500MB) is moving almost due W to probably WSW. In another 3HR it should give us a good indication if decoupling has commence.

Below is the Sat presentation of Matthew and you can note the TROF line coming out of Matthew SE into northern SA... This is the focus area for new development as it moves west and additional ingredients combine with it (development could happen from E of Belize to the Central Carib.:

Quoting Buhdog:


yup...i think i am one of the oldest SWFL members here(as a member not age), but mostly lurk. I am a comedy guy and Destin Jeff does enough shtick for us all! My eyes are glued to the carib!
Think I'm oldest in age!
NW Cape here. Lurker here also. Watching the carib also, first time in a long time.
Quoting StormChaser81:
Since making landfall the storm has built a great deal on heavy convection to its northeast.



Maybe that convection will be part of future Nicole down the road.
its on land...thank god.
Quoting Ookla:
Does anyone know why the computer models and the ensemble models of Matthew are so different? The computer models have him staying in Central America, while the ensemble models have him break north along a number of tracks that mostly hit Florida.
???


Someone please correct me if I'm wrong...gonna take a stab at this one...

Aren't the ensemble models all just a subset of the GFS? The GFS is comprised of 20 different model runs each with different environmental variables altered. What you're seeing are some of those individual components.
1056. shawn26
NE Cape here.
Where is the Levi32 blog?
Afternoon
folks here on roatan are already talking about how matthew wont be passing here because it is going into nicaragua. that worries me. we havent gotten much more than a drizzle of rain and it is completely still right now so folks think its done. any updated info regarding the bay islands of honduras and especially roatan would be appreciated. would like to pass on the most recent, accurate info.
This has been by far the most complicated system to make a forecast track for , so many variables and so many things that must come into play !!!!
1061. SQUAWK
Quoting Ookla:
Does anyone know why the computer models and the ensemble models of Matthew are so different? The computer models have him staying in Central America, while the ensemble models have him break north along a number of tracks that mostly hit Florida.
???


Here is a guess: Because none of them has a clue as to what this storm is going to do. Their level of competence has exceeded by too many variables and insufficient data.
1062. HarryMc
Quoting LSUgolfer:
Where is the Levi32 blog?

In the Levi32 blog here. Or click:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Levi32/show.html
Good Afternoon everybody. To me, Matthew looks like a 60MPH TS right now.
1064. NRAamy
I hear ya, SQUAWK...but it's easier to just blind myself....
Quoting roatangardener:
folks here on roatan are already talking about how matthew wont be passing here because it is going into nicaragua. that worries me. we havent gotten much more than a drizzle of rain and it is completely still right now so folks think its done. any updated info regarding the bay islands of honduras and especially roatan would be appreciated. would like to pass on the most recent, accurate info.

Where is Roatan I've never heard of that country before, is it that island in the Gulf of Honduras?
1066. Grothar
Latest GFS ensemble models

Link


levi blog
Quoting Grothar:
Latest GFS ensemble models


Thats not good!
The storm is still feeding off the NW Caribbean waters. That's why that feeder band to the northeast has gotten so well defined.

This will seriously add to the rain amounts.

You can see the dark blues and even some whites still on the Water Vapor.
Quoting roatangardener:
folks here on roatan are already talking about how matthew wont be passing here because it is going into nicaragua. that worries me. we havent gotten much more than a drizzle of rain and it is completely still right now so folks think its done. any updated info regarding the bay islands of honduras and especially roatan would be appreciated. would like to pass on the most recent, accurate info.
good luck
1073. Ookla
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


Someone please correct me if I'm wrong...gonna take a stab at this one...

Aren't the ensemble models all just a subset of the GFS? The GFS is comprised of 20 different model runs each with different environmental variables altered. What you're seeing are some of those individual components.


Got it. Thank you.
Quoting Grothar:
Latest GFS ensemble models

Not good at all BUT i would probably expect matthew to be tron apart in central america and its remnants may regenerate and begin to head NNE/NE towards Western cuba and South Florida. that what i am seeing at this time
1075. Grothar
GFS at 168 hours



1076. Buhdog
Quoting masonsnana:
Think I'm oldest in age!
NW Cape here. Lurker here also. Watching the carib also, first time in a long time.


actually i just looked at you and saw you are a member since 2004!! I was here but only as a member since 2005. I respect people with old member dates, it shows they did not get run off and create a new handle. I hate seeing people who post as if they know everything there is to know and then i see they have been a member since 09 (or even that same month). Obviously they were run off, or tried to be someone they really are not a 2nd, 3rd, 4th 1,000,000 x (JFV) I don't care what anyone says, who stays or goes, who wishcasts, who downcasts. I am all in on this blog.
1077. pcola57
Been looking at water vapor animated images and see a feature spining up at 18n 70w.Can someone please share what they see here so I can put it to rest?
v/r
Moe
Significant increase in convection with TS Matthew. I can only imagine that the proximity of Matthew to the coast is playing a key role here. Frictional and orographic forces are at play here. I don't have enough of a background in this area to know whether this can impact the path of TS Matthew. Any thoughts out there?
I think Matthew is just off/or barely on the Nicaraguan Coast, I don't think it will go as far inland as once thought, I see the COC pulling more North now, maybe I need to change my glasses though :)
Quoting Grothar:
GFS at 168 hours




You know what my local met. was saying this could be hybrid, do you see that happening?
Quoting pcola57:
Been looking at water vapor animated images and see a feature spining up at 18n 75w.Can someone please share what they see here so I can put it to rest?
v/r
Moe


I think your seeing the Upper Level Low.

It's grabbing moisture from the Caribbean.
Link
Good afternoon all... I know everyone's eye is focused on Matthew and rightfully so. But taking a look at Lisa... she looks really good, probably strong TS or 75 mph HU
Based on the 12z global models, it appears to me that Matthew will dissipate over central America while a piece of its energy combines with a pre-existing area of low pressure. Those two systems then become a tropical cyclone over the western Caribbean.

If anyone has any other point of views please tell me them.
THe COC in getting very close to 15N, if it clears 15 without significant land interaction, then its a whole other ballgame with Matthew IMO.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Matthew is just off/or barely on the Nicaraguan Coast, I don't think it will go as far inland as once thought, I see the COC pulling more North now, maybe I need to change my glasses though :)

Yeah I see what your talking about, that Northward wobble is pretty obvious! on wunderground satellite.
Quoting MrNatural:
Significant increase in convection with TS Matthew. I can only imagine that the proximity of Matthew to the coast is playing a key role here. Frictional and orographic forces are at play here. I don't have enough of a background in this area to know whether this can impact the path of TS Matthew. Any thoughts out there?


That's pretty flat land hes going over right now, the mountains areas are to the north west of him.

He's pulling from the high TCHP in the NW Caribbean.

Basically watching a storm keeps its strength from pulling moisture in using feeder bands.
1089. pcola57
Quoting StormChaser81:


I think your seeing the Upper Level Low.

It's grabbing moisture from the Caribbean.
Link

Thank you StormChaser81,It looks strong and I couldn't figure it out.
Thanks
Moe
TGIF Everyone. Have missed the past day's events, however, in answer to questions about Roatan. Here's a map showing where this island is located:

And here is what's going on with Matthew in the near future. Just click on Tropical Fcst Points inside the link below and you will see that you are about to get hit with quite a bit of rain.
IRLoop
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Good afternoon all... I know everyone's eye is focused on Matthew and rightfully so. But taking a look at Lisa... she looks really good, probably strong TS or 75 mph HU

Lisa looks as if she's peaking, and I think she's at 60MPH like I think Matthew is.
Roatangardener---you have WU mail.

BTW--I took a scuba trip to your island a few years ago. Lovely place.
Quoting Buhdog:


actually i just looked at you and saw you are a member since 2004!! I was here but only as a member since 2005. I respect people with old member dates, it shows they did not get run off and create a new handle. I hate seeing people who post as if they know everything there is to know and then i see they have been a member since 09 (or even that same month). Obviously they were run off, or tried to be someone they really are not a 2nd, 3rd, 4th 1,000,000 x (JFV) I don't care what anyone says, who stays or goes, who wishcasts, who downcasts. I am all in on this blog.


Brian?
Quoting Jeff9641:
nws of Tampa

IN THE WAKE OF TS MATTHEW MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN
CARRIBEAN AND MOVING INTO THE GULF BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARDS
WESTERN FLORIDA AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. REMAINING SKEPTICAL ABOUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM THAT HAS YET TO DEVELOP...SO
WILL WAIT UNTIL MODEL RUNS DEVELOP MORE
CONSISTENCY BEFORE
INCORPORATING INTO THE FORECAST.


Same over here in the MLB CWA--- NWS states that they are not so inclined to increase PoP or anything until there is a consensus/system organizing. Mentionred it yesterday, but MLB does not usually update their days 4-7 forecast on the afternoon update, but they did today to mention the 12Z runs
Quoting pcola57:

Thank you StormChaser81,It looks strong and I couldn't figure it out.
Thanks
Moe


They usually are pretty strong bringing 15-20 knots or more of shear to any system in there path.
That NHC cone sure is all encompassing.....
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Same over here in the MLB CWA--- NWS states that they are not so inclined to increase PoP or anything until there is a consensus/system organizing. Mentionred it yesterday, but MLB does not usually update their days 4-7 forecast on the afternoon update, but they did today to mention the 12Z runs

Well guys at least we know what the potential is, better here on this site, as opposed to discounting the possibilty, because the people who go on the nws website might get caught off guard a couple days from now if this thing is bearing down on them.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on the 12z global models, it appears to me that Matthew will dissipate over central America while a piece of its energy combines with a pre-existing area of low pressure. Those two systems then become a tropical cyclone over the western Caribbean.

If anyone has any other point of views please tell me them.

I think this is same scenario DR. Rick Knabb of TWC has been discussing for a few days.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on the 12z global models, it appears to me that Matthew will dissipate over central America while a piece of its energy combines with a pre-existing area of low pressure. Those two systems then become a tropical cyclone over the western Caribbean.

If anyone has any other point of views please tell me them.
hey MIami i am noticing either the center making a jog to the North or the begining of a Nw Component, some on here are also seeing that ?????
Quoting largeeyes:
That NHC cone sure is all encompassing.....


Why waste any time forecasting when you can cover the whole landmass.

Basically there saying in the 5 day cone we have no idea????????????????

And they are of on the third mission into Mathew so we should soon see what conditions really are on the coast of Honduras
1104. Buhdog
Quoting recordfinder:


Brian?


Skinner?
1105. Seastep
If he takes a path similar to the first graphic in Doc's post, the land won't be much of an issue.

Sat, to me, is showing a N jog. Center now about 14.7N/83.4W.

Shortwave

Visible

Can see it in all of them, really.

the border between nica and honduras is flat land all the way to limon on the coast and inland about a 1/4 of the eastern corner of the country is mostly flat, then the mountains cover the rest of the country. so not much to slow it down on that far eastern edge
Here is the 2 p.m. advisory for Matthew:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 83.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS * THE COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR * PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREAFTER...MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY REACHING THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
THESE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Looks like the COC is trying desperately to stay over water.

Creeping towards the Honduras-Nicaragua border.
Quoting Buhdog:


Skinner?


Haa, yep. Funny. As you can see Im an oldschool lurker, 2002, boooyyeeee!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on the 12z global models, it appears to me that Matthew will dissipate over central America while a piece of its energy combines with a pre-existing area of low pressure. Those two systems then become a tropical cyclone over the western Caribbean.

If anyone has any other point of views please tell me them.


That was one of Levi's scenarios. Sounds like it could be possible.
1113. breald
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on the 12z global models, it appears to me that Matthew will dissipate over central America while a piece of its energy combines with a pre-existing area of low pressure. Those two systems then become a tropical cyclone over the western Caribbean.

If anyone has any other point of views please tell me them.



So actually it is Nicole that will hit the USA?
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Well guys at least we know what the potential is, better here on this site, as opposed to discounting the possibilty, because the people who go on the nws website might get caught off guard a couple days from now if this thing is bearing down on them.


They are not completely discounting it, acknowledging it is a possibility, but there appears to be not much model consensus (as of 12Z) to warrant inserting into the forecast. Bottom line, be prepared always just in case... regardless of whether it is on here or NWS that people get their info (which can be quite informative on here). Unfortunately some on here are generally wishcasters and doomcasters.
Quoting Seastep:
If he takes a path similar to the first graphic in Doc's post, the land won't be much of an issue.

Sat, to me, is showing a N jog. Center now about 14.7N/83.4W.

Shortwave

Visible

Can see it in all of them, really.



Wow, ya North Jog.

You see the energy through the system pulsating.

The center is pretty clear in the shortwave.

Thanx for showing
Quoting Seastep:
If he takes a path similar to the first graphic in Doc's post, the land won't be much of an issue.

Sat, to me, is showing a N jog. Center now about 14.7N/83.4W.

Shortwave

Visible

Can see it in all of them, really.



agreed
1117. Grothar
Quoting GTcooliebai:

You know what my local met. was saying this could be hybrid, do you see that happening?


I think we are going to see a strange event taking place in the next week, with this storm and another which I have been saying will develop in the Caribbean.
Quoting Seastep:
If he takes a path similar to the first graphic in Doc's post, the land won't be much of an issue.

Sat, to me, is showing a N jog. Center now about 14.7N/83.4W.

Shortwave

Visible

Can see it in all of them, really.



I've been seeing that too for a few hours now.
Well guys I guess we will know in less than an hr. if nhc has changed its heading to WNW.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Why waste any time forecasting when you can cover the whole landmass.

Basically there saying in the 5 day cone we have no idea????????????????



My that's a big cone you got there....
Quoting Seflhurricane:
hey MIami i am noticing either the center making a jog to the North or the begining of a Nw Component, some on here are also seeing that ?????
More like a steady W/WNW heading is what I'm seeing. Looks to me like Matthew has already made landfall...south of the Honduras border.

Floater - Visible Loop
Looks like it wobbled or jumped 20-40 miles northwest right after landfall.
1123. Buhdog
Quoting recordfinder:


Haa, yep. Funny. As you can see Im an oldschool lurker, 2002, boooyyeeee!
i have never seen a member since 2002....omg. What is the longest anyone else has seen? Mad props to you! sounds like we may need to get out the canoes if the 2 week precip holds out!
Quoting StormChaser81:
Looks like it wobbled or jumped 20-40 miles northwest right after landfall.


That wasn't a wobble, it was a solid WNW movement.
1125. Grothar
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Not good at all BUT i would probably expect matthew to be tron apart in central america and its remnants may regenerate and begin to head NNE/NE towards Western cuba and South Florida. that what i am seeing at this time


If it stays on the Northern tip as expected, it may not get torn up as much. Not very mountainous there, however, it depends on how long it stays over land, though. I see a shift in the models more to the North before full landfall on the Yucatan. I really do believe this one IS a 'wait and see".
Quoting breald:



So actually it is Nicole that will hit the USA?
If Matthew's energy does indeed combine with another pre-existing low level disturbance, then yeah, it would be Nicole. However, if the one and only thing that re-develops is Matthew's energy, then it will maintain its name.
1127. Ookla
Quoting tropicfreak:


That wasn't a wobble, it was a solid WNW movement.

I always thought storms tended to do this right around landfall.
1128. swlavp
Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 SEP 2010 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 14:28:48 N Lon : 83:14:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.3 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -74.9C Cloud Region Temp : -72.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Quoting Buhdog:
i have never seen a member since 2002....omg. What is the longest anyone else has seen? Mad props to you! sounds like we may need to get out the canoes if the 2 week precip holds out!


Yeah, been here since almost the start of this site it feels like. How long has WU been around?

I am feeling this one. The models are all showing something is going to affect FL in the next 7 days. But that is still pretty far away as we all know. Things can and will change. But fun keeping an eye on it in the meantime.
Quoting tropicfreak:


That wasn't a wobble, it was a solid WNW movement.


Ya and it looks like it might continue this northward movement.

I hate waiting, sometimes its nice to step away for like 3 hours and then come back.

It's like oh wow its still moving in that direction.

=)
Quoting StormChaser81:
Looks like it wobbled or jumped 20-40 miles northwest right after landfall.

It also appears the forward speed might have slowed a bit also, not good!
1132. unf97
Long Range discussion from the NWS JAX forecasters:


NWS JAX is seeing/saying the same things:

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO LOSE ITS MOMENTUM OVER FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. HIGHEST POPS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKING INTO GEORGIA. BEYOND TUESDAY MANY QUESTION MARKS
REMAIN AS OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN TOWARD A POSSIBLE
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CREATED BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM WITH THE LATEST
MODEL SUITE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FRINGE EFFECTS TO BEGIN
IMPACTING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


Quoting Buhdog:


actually i just looked at you and saw you are a member since 2004!! I was here but only as a member since 2005. I respect people with old member dates, it shows they did not get run off and create a new handle. I hate seeing people who post as if they know everything there is to know and then i see they have been a member since 09 (or even that same month). Obviously they were run off, or tried to be someone they really are not a 2nd, 3rd, 4th 1,000,000 x (JFV) I don't care what anyone says, who stays or goes, who wishcasts, who downcasts. I am all in on this blog.

After Charlie I decided to try to be more informed and I respect some of the opinions on this blog. I'm a scared-caster. Some think that people in Florida are wishcasters, but after Charlie, I know I don't want to be "surprised" again.
Quoting Ookla:

I always thought storms tended to do this right around landfall.


They do act erratic when making landfall, but this just seem to take off WNW.
looking at visible images looks like we may have a WNW montion commencing
Recon has taken off... maybe NHC is starting to think that the center may remain off shore or onshore for only a couple of hours
Mathew appears to be moving NW now and appears to be trying to get offshore. Can others see this happening or are my eye's failing me? Appears to be a definite NW jog now.
Does anybody have any thoughts about the system developing in the Carribean? I heard on my weather station today to watch out for it by next week. Any thoughts?
I can't wait until the 5 o'clock update, I'm sitting here anxiously shaking my feet, yet scratching my head at all the possible scenarios. And no I'm not hairless yet.
So it looks like Igor could be retired by Canada in the spring.Over 100 million dollors in damage,and lets not foreget the damage in bermuda.
1142. IKE
6-10 day temperature outlook....

1143. sngalla
Quoting masonsnana:

After Charlie I decided to try to be more informed and I respect some of the opinions on this blog. I'm a scared-caster. Some think that people in Florida are wishcasters, but after Charlie, I know I don't want to be "surprised" again.


I know. Wilma surprised us with the intensity of her backside. Didn't like it....at all.
Quoting TampaMishy:
Does anybody have any thoughts about the system developing in the Carribean? I heard on my weather station today to watch out for it by next week. Any thoughts?


I haven't seen you in a long time.
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 83.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREAFTER...MATTHEW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 998
MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY REACHING THE COAST
OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
THESE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So it looks like Igor could be retired by Canada in the spring.Over 100 million dollors in damage,and lets not foreget the damage in bermuda.


Not to mention, at its peak, it was very beautiful.
for some strange reason Matthew will be a pain and a massive headache for all of us not even the NHC knows whats going on
1148. tkeith
Quoting IKE:
6-10 day temperature outlook....

that blue looks nice...
Mathew may try to push back offshore tonight as it appears to be feeling the trough moving in.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html
I periodically poke my head in here..Nice to see you.
Looks like it's going to be a sit on the edge of your seat type of week ahead of us. Even if Matthew sits over the Yucatan for a while, when whatever is left gets out into the GOM, it will most likely ramp up quickly.
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Where is Roatan I've never heard of that country before, is it that island in the Gulf of Honduras?


You are kidding, you do not watch Survivor and especially Survivor Roatan?

Hi everyone, nasty rainy day here in Broward County, 2 days of rain in a row...
1153. WxLogic
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Recon has taken off... maybe NHC is starting to think that the center may remain off shore or onshore for only a couple of hours


By the time they get to the area there could be a possibility of a new center.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Mathew appears to be moving NW now and appears to be trying to get offshore. Can others see this happening or are my eye's failing me? Appears to be a definite NW jog now.


I agree. On the Rainbow loop you can clearly see it hugging the coast of Nicaragua
Complete Update

Lisa & Julia
- Not much change, still steady on the WU NFI track

Matthew
- Vortex Runs completed in Mission 2, Mission 3 enroute now. The physical mass of Matthew is huge, but no idea where is going next.




AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Link
watch the little piece of white convection in this link move almost due N along the coast line, this will give you a good idea where the COC is headed . JMO
Quoting sngalla:


I know. Wilma surprised us with the intensity of her backside. Didn't like it....at all.

Oh exactly. I was thinking about Wilma today also.
1158. sngalla
Quoting seflagamma:


You are kidding, you do not watch Survivor and especially Survivor Roatan?

Hi everyone, nasty rainy day here in Broward County, 2 days of rain in a row...


Hey Patti! Lots of rain here. We certainly don't need any systems heading our way with more of the wet stuff!
we be a seein
Quoting Jeff9641:
Mathew appears to be moving NW now and appears to be trying to get offshore. Can others see this happening or are my eye's failing me? Appears to be a definite NW jog now.


Yes I see it as well.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I can't wait until the 5 o'clock update, I'm sitting here anxiously shaking my feet, yet scratching my head at all the possible scenarios. And no I'm not hairless yet.


LOL... I am thinking that many of us may be just that when we get done with watching this storm.
Quoting IKE:
6-10 day temperature outlook....



I like that. Summer has been long enough here!
Quoting IKE:
6-10 day temperature outlook....


You down (temperature) caster! Thanks. ;>)
1165. ROBTX09
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
watch the little piece of white convection in this link move almost due N along the coast line, this will give you a good idea where the COC is headed . JMO

agreed
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
watch the little piece of white convection in this link move almost due N along the coast line, this will give you a good idea where the COC is headed . JMO
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
watch the little piece of white convection in this link move almost due N along the coast line, this will give you a good idea where the COC is headed . JMO


I've been watching this also. It looks very clear on the Rainbow floater loop.
1168. xcool


Quoting TampaMishy:
Does anybody have any thoughts about the system developing in the Carribean? I heard on my weather station today to watch out for it by next week. Any thoughts?


If you are going to get any type of storm the time frame would be next Friday.
matthew is now moving WNW just zoomed in very close and yes it may be the turn we are expecting or a jog which happens with landfalling tropical systems let wait a few hours to see or for recon to confirm
I guess nobody knows?
1172. FTLGUY
I am seeing same thing..... need few more hours to confirm. Did I read they are sending in another recon into the storm? they may be sensing a change here as well??

Quoting Jeff9641:
Mathew appears to be moving NW now and appears to be trying to get offshore. Can others see this happening or are my eye's failing me? Appears to be a definite NW jog now.
Thank you for answering me
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Looks like it's going to be a sit on the edge of your seat type of week ahead of us. Even if Matthew sits over the Yucatan for a while, when whatever is left gets out into the GOM, it will most likely ramp up quickly.


your right because a very tight circulation has developed over the last 24 hours.
Quoting IKE:
6-10 day temperature outlook....



Looks like below normal temperatures due to all of the moisture coming up from the south with one or two storms.
1179. swlavp
Buoy 42056...North of COC

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 94 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.82 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 85.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.6 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.3 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 95.7 °F
Matthew = headache.
Recon is about 110 miles from St. Croix.

1182. Buhdog
Quoting sngalla:


I know. Wilma surprised us with the intensity of her backside. Didn't like it....at all.


Charley taught me alot about canes. I was the first on my block to board up as i was a WU novice and Lefty 420 told me to put them on! the 3 neighbors laughed at me at the time (all ended up at my house)

I was afraid when they told us that a cat 4 brought 20 foot surge (my house in cape is 8 feet above) OF course living on a cape near the water i freaked! I grabbed a ladder and put it near the garage to get into the attic if needed! I have since figured out how it works...in theory! 1. never guess gulf storms intensity. 2. have a generator ready, 3. have a bunch of food ready. The rest is easy.


Matthew most likely a strong TS at 5pm IMO. Prob a 60-70 mph storm.
Quoting TampaMishy:
I guess nobody knows?


Afternoon trouble
Quoting FTLGUY:
I am seeing same thing..... need few more hours to confirm. Did I read they are sending in another recon into the storm? they may be sensing a change here as well??



Steering currents are becoming weak and more to the NW now that the trough is breaking down the western edge of the ridge. This breakdown should become even more evident over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Matthew = headache.

Matthew=Heartburn
THe COC in getting very close to 15N, if it clears 15 without significant land interaction, then its a whole other ballgame with Matthew IMO.


Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/1815 UTC 16.6N 104.7W T1.0/1.0 97E -- East Pacific
24/1800 UTC 19.6N 27.7W T3.0/3.0 LISA -- Atlantic
24/1745 UTC 15.0N 82.6W T2.5/3.0 MATTHEW -- Atlantic
24/1432 UTC 29.6N 141.9E T5.0/5.0 MALAKAS -- West Pacific
24/1200 UTC 18.8N 27.5W T2.0/2.0 LISA -- Atlantic


The latest shows 15 degrees hit....definitely a more north of west track now
According to AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi, "Whether it is Matthew, or a reformed version of it, perhaps with the name Nicole, a hit is coming for Florida later next week, then the storm could move north into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states."
1189. tkeith
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Matthew = headache.
yeah, a real pain in the...

yeah a headache...
Quoting tropicfreak:


Matthew most likely a strong TS at 5pm IMO. Prob a 60-70 mph storm.

You know & that wouldn't be the 1st time we had a strengthening storm over land.
Quoting coffeecrusader:
According to AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi, "Whether it is Matthew, or a reformed version of it, perhaps with the name Nicole, a hit is coming for Florida later next week, then the storm could move north into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states."


Means some beneficial rains for us here in VA.
1192. Buhdog
record finder +1
Quoting WxLogic:


By the time they get to the area there could be a possibility of a new center.


RU kidding me?!
Quoting GTcooliebai:

You know & that wouldn't be the 1st time we had a strengthening storm over land.


Feeder band is keeping Matthew alive.
Good afternoon.

It appears as though by the 5 pm updaye, Matthew will have made landfall.
At the a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/145713.shtml?radii#contents update, his center is barely off the Nicaraguan Coast. A landfall in extreme N. Nicaragua seems like the likely scenario.

Looking at the Visible Satellite Imagery , it does appear the he is starting some sort of motion with a northerly component, but it's also possible that it's the the expansion of convection to the north that makes that illusion.

We'll see in 20 minutes.
1196. swlavp
Quoting tkeith:
yeah, a real pain in the...

yeah a headache...


That could mean the same thing for some folks...LOL
I was wrong.

..MATTHEW MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 24
Location: 14.7°N 83.7°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Quoting Orcasystems:


Afternoon trouble
LOTS OF TROUBLE
1200. IKE
...MATTHEW MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 24
Location: 14.7°N 83.7°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 15 mph

Min pressure: 998 mb
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Good afternoon.

It appears as though by the 5 pm updaye, Matthew will have made landfall.
At the a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/145713.shtml?radii#contents update, his center is barely off the Nicaraguan Coast. A landfall in extreme N. Nicaragua seems like the likely scenario.

Looking at the Visible Satellite Imagery , it does appear the he is starting some sort of motion with a northerly component, but it's also possible that it's the the expansion of convection to the north that makes that illusion.

We'll see in 20 minutes.


Sorry.
Visible Loop
Quoting tropicfreak:


Means some beneficial rains for us here in VA.


I hear that... a little parched across the SE for sure, including here in my area of Central Florida. We are nearly 9" below normal on the year... so we could use it for sure.
It really looks as if Mathew is making that push to the wnw or nw now. As I type this NHC says west still.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201015_sat.html#a_topad
000
WTNT45 KNHC 242036
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA FIXED THE
CENTER OF MATTHEW AT 1717 UTC ABOUT 30 NMI EAST OF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND WINDS
SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...MATTHEW MOVED
WESTWARD AND THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND IS NOW LOCATED INLAND SOUTH OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS. THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY
CURVED RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY OVER LAND...GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN.

AS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD OVER HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THERE
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND NOAA BUOY DATA.

MATTHEW HAS DECREASED SOME IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
ABOUT 13 KNOTS...WELL EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
DAYS.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

Quoting tropicfreak:


Feeder band is keeping Matthew alive.


That's funny do these names ring a bell, Karl, Wilma, Fay, etc all stayed together or strengthened over land.
1206. IKE
It moved .1N and .7W over the last 3 hours. Weakening...winds down to 45 mph. Moving just north of west.
000
WTNT45 KNHC 242036
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA FIXED THE
CENTER OF MATTHEW AT 1717 UTC ABOUT 30 NMI EAST OF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND WINDS
SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...MATTHEW MOVED
WESTWARD AND THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND IS NOW LOCATED INLAND SOUTH OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS. THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY
CURVED RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY OVER LAND...GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN.

AS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD OVER HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THERE
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND NOAA BUOY DATA.

MATTHEW HAS DECREASED SOME IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
ABOUT 13 KNOTS...WELL EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
DAYS.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 14.7N 83.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.2N 85.6W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1800Z 15.8N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0600Z 16.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
MATTHEW MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS NEW VIDEO OF MATTHEW GOOD MUSIC TO.
1209. WxLogic
Quoting Chicklit:


RU kidding me?!


Matthew is becoming a large Tropical Storm due to land interaction, so based on this and the monsoonal region is currently on... it could easily relocate to where new deeper convection exist which in this case is over the coast. There's some indication of its low level vorticity (heading WNW to NW) separating from the mid level one which is heading W. Is possible.
1210. tkeith
If a storm dont form down there and get into the Gulf this coming week, this will be the most over forecasted tropical event I can remember. Every model every forecaster and even TWC has been on this for goin on 2 weeks.
No more 5 day cone for Matt...
I don't get it, NHC still has matthew moving west and the track shifted further south, doesn't make sense.
They have to see the WNW or NW movement happen for a couple of hours before they change it.

Might be a big wobble.
1214. IKE
MATTHEW HAS DECREASED SOME IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
ABOUT 13 KNOTS...WELL EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
DAYS.
..........


RIP in 2-3 days. Good luck to those in it's path, from flooding.
Per NHC... Dissipation at 96 hrs... and per discussion, likely not to be "Matthew" in the NW Carib but rather another entity
1216. ROBTX09
i have to disagree with the nhc here
Quoting IKE:
...MATTHEW MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 24
Location: 14.7°N 83.7°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 15 mph

Min pressure: 998 mb

Why am I not surprised?
...LISA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 27.8W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
Interesting...

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.
Quoting tkeith:
If a storm dont form down there and get into the Gulf this coming week, this will be the most over forecasted tropical event I can remember. Every model every forecaster and even TWC has been on this for goin on 2 weeks.


what about Gaston?
1221. Patrap
1222. sngalla
Quoting Buhdog:


Charley taught me alot about canes. I was the first on my block to board up as i was a WU novice and Lefty 420 told me to put them on! the 3 neighbors laughed at me at the time (all ended up at my house)

I was afraid when they told us that a cat 4 brought 20 foot surge (my house in cape is 8 feet above) OF course living on a cape near the water i freaked! I grabbed a ladder and put it near the garage to get into the attic if needed! I have since figured out how it works...in theory! 1. never guess gulf storms intensity. 2. have a generator ready, 3. have a bunch of food ready. The rest is easy.



My first was Irene which wasn't even forecast to come in our direction. So no shutters up. Watched the windows breathing with the force of the winds and lost power for 3 days. Never under estimate any storm.
1223. WxLogic
Appears confidence is increasing that next development will be Nichole.
How much ACE has Lisa donated so far?

Thanks.
Lisa trying to be a hurricane again?
1226. ROBTX09
i believe the center is more north then the nhc is saying
1227. tkeith
Quoting BobinTampa:


what about Gaston?
I have a short memory...product of the 70's, you know how it is :)

Quoting WxLogic:
Appears confidence is increasing that next development will be Nichole.


Yes, it is certain the next development will be Nicole. 100%.
But the question is where? when? how? to where? =)
models dont have a clue right now lol...


just made a new blog. Enjoy it!
link
1231. Patrap

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TS Matthew
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Quoting IKE:
...MATTHEW MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 24
Location: 14.7°N 83.7°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 15 mph

Min pressure: 998 mb



How about posting this as well..

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.
1233. leo305
There's a weak area of low pressure east of matthew rigth now.. you could see some convergence developing as matthew moves away from that area..

there's quite a bit of convection there just north of columbia
Quoting IKE:
6-10 day temperature outlook....

YAY!
NEW BLOG
Matthew is not evening getting into any of the off the chart TCHP, either.
1237. centex
Models were very late to get Matthew right. It was a difficult one. Seems the more reliable models were the most wrong on this one. Game may not be over if it can pull a little N.
NEW BLOG!!!!
1239. IKE
NEW BLOG!
1240. xcool
newwwwwwwwwwwww BLOGGG
1242. ROBTX09
new blog!!!
Exactly let's take Gaston for instence a good amount of models devolped it but the GFS didn't the GFS was right.However GfS has been very consistant on developing this so if it does not I will be surprised, not to say that it will be as strong as the GFS is saying at the moment cause things obviously change in a days time.
You know personally I have a great respect for the NHC and the overall great job they do, but Matthew is a complicated system, but a blind man can see what is about take place,Matthew is starting to pull more northward and will probably meander in the area of the GOH for a few days gathering strenghth and power, personally i doubt there will be another system, Matthew IMO is going to be the main player in the Caribbean for the rest of week, anyway just my personal opinion, lets see if the 2nd Storm scenario with the models and evidently most experts pan out,just my personal opinion, bear in mind I could be completely wrong, as I'm sure not an expert weatherman, nor am I being critical of the NHC or any respected forecaster" which is usually a reliable computer model anyway" as Matthew is obviously an headache for anyone including the experts, its basically a watch, wait and see what pans out game!
1246. will40
i didnt think recon would investigate a strom over land because of tornado hazard.
Quoting Buhdog:
i have never seen a member since 2002....omg. What is the longest anyone else has seen? Mad props to you! sounds like we may need to get out the canoes if the 2 week precip holds out!

Quoting recordfinder:


Yeah, been here since almost the start of this site it feels like. How long has WU been around?

I am feeling this one. The models are all showing something is going to affect FL in the next 7 days. But that is still pretty far away as we all know. Things can and will change. But fun keeping an eye on it in the meantime.


Gotcha beat...here since 2001.
1248. will40
The flights go into everything from developing tropical storms to Category 5 hurricanes. But they don’t fly into a storm over land because of the danger of tornadoes.


googled it and found this
1249. Motttt
I,m an old one too
1250. Kearn
like ive been telling you all day long

matthew is going to dissipate