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Matthew Holding Its Own; Threat Shifting to Bahamas, Southeast U.S.

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 9:20 PM GMT on October 04, 2016

Mighty Hurricane Matthew has shrugged off its encounter with a landfall on the southwestern tip of Haiti between 7 - 9 am Tuesday morning, and remains an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds as it plows north at about 9 mph over the eastern tip of Cuba. Update: As of 11 PM EDT Tuesday, a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the east coast of Florida from Golden Beach northward (including all of Broward County] to Sebastian Inlet, as well as for Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch extends north from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line, and a Tropical Storm Warning extends from Chokoloskee (near Everglades City) around the south end of Florida through Miami-Dade County, as well as Florida Bay and the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge northeastward. See the National Hurricane Center graphics for Matthew for other watches and warnings now in effect.

Satellite loops late Tuesday morning showed that the encounter with Haiti’s southwest peninsula weakened the storm, with the eye growing indistinct and the cloud tops of the eyewall thunderstorms warming. However, early Tuesday afternoon the eye began clearing out, and an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found that the central pressure had begun to drop again. At 12:38 pm Tuesday, during their final penetration of the eye, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters measured a central pressure of 949 mb, down two mb from their previous two passes through the eye. Peak surface winds measured by their SFMR instrument were 135 mph, and a dropsonde measured 141 mph winds at the surface. Matthew clearly remained a solid Category 4 storm, as reflected in the 5 pm EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Matthew taken at 11 am EDT October 4, 2016, four hours after the hurricane had made landfall on the southwestern tip of Haiti as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Other than the land interaction going on with the eastern tip of Cuba, Matthew has favorable conditions for development. Light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots is affecting the storm, it has warm ocean waters of 29°C (84°F), and plenty of moisture--70 - 75% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere, as analyzed by the SHIPS model.


Figure 2. Radar image of Hurricane Matthew as it was approaching the eastern tip of Cuba at 3:35 pm EDT October 4, 2016. Image credit: NOAA.

Extreme rains over Haiti, Cuba and the Dominican Republic
Extreme rains from Matthew are a huge concern for eastern Cuba and the entire island of Hispaniola. The mountainous terrain of these islands creates tremendous uplift to the thunderstorms moving ashore, resulting in extremely intense rainfall. According to Oficina Nacional de Meteorología (ONAMET), the official weather service of the Dominican Republic, total rainfall amounts in the Dominican Republic on October 3 were as high as 233.9 mm (9.21”). The capital of Santo Domingo received 170.2 mm (6.81”). Additional heavy rains fell across southern portions of the country on Tuesday. The huge rainfall amounts we’ve been mentioning here from the personal weather station (PWS) in Cabo Rojo, on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic near the border with Haiti--22.89” of rain on Monday--are not mentioned on the ONAMET web site, even though they operate the station. Thus, these rainfall numbers may be unreliable.


Figure 3. Total rainfall amounts in the Dominican Republic on October 3, 2016. Rainfall amounts of up to 233.9 mm (9.21”) fell. The capital of Santo Domingo received 170.2 mm (6.81”). Image credit: Oficina Nacional de Meteorología (ONAMET), the official weather service of the Dominican Republic,

Catastrophe in Haiti?
Matthew’s extreme rains, large storm surge, and Category 4 winds were likely catastrophic for the southwestern portion of Haiti where landfall occurred. Matthew was the third strongest hurricane ever recorded in Haiti, and their strongest hurricane in 52 years. The only Haitian hurricanes stronger than Matthew were two Category 4 storms with 150 mph winds: Hurricane Cleo of 1964 and Hurricane Flora of 1963. According to a Tuesday afternoon news story from weather.com, two deaths in Haiti and four in the Dominican Republic are being blamed on Matthew so far.

We don’t have many weather stations in Haiti, so it is difficult to say what the conditions are on the ground. However, all three weather stations in southern Haiti that send us data continued transmitting through mid-afternoon Tuesday, which is a good sign. The Port-Au-Prince airport did not receive strong winds; top winds as of 2 pm EDT Tuesday were 34 mph, gusting to 52 mph. However, they did report several hours of heavy rain, which is the main danger in this heavily populated region, due to the high flash flooding risk. A personal weather station (PWS) on the south coast Haiti at Aquin, about 70 miles east of Matthew’s landfall, recorded a wind gust of 59 mph at 6:50 am EDT Tuesday. A PWS near Port-Au-Prince, Haiti recorded about 2.81” of rain for the day, ending at  3 pm EDT Tuesday.

Matthew set to carve a destructive swath across The Bahamas
Matthew’s assault on the Greater Antilles is just in the first of what could be a week-long sequence of damaging events as the massive hurricane churns toward the U.S. East Coast. The most immediate threat is to The Bahamas, where the entire nation is now under a Hurricane Warning. Matthew has a good chance of retaining its current strength, or perhaps even intensifying a bit, as it passes through The Bahamas from late Tuesday through early Thursday. Wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate (around 5 - 15 knots) through at least Thursday, with a very moist atmosphere (relative humidities at mid-levels of 70 - 80%). Moreover, the waters of The Bahamas are close to record-warm levels for early October, with sea surface temperatures around 29-30°C (84-86°F), about 1°C above average. There is also plenty of deep oceanic heat; together with the shallow undersea topography of The Bahamas, this will reduce the chance that Matthew’s fierce winds and waves will churn up enough cool water to significantly dent its strength. The fact that Matthew lost little strength during its trek across the Greater Antilles testifies to its very large and well-structured circulation. The NHC forecast issued at 11 AM EDT Tuesday keeps Matthew as a Category 4 through Thursday.

Matthew will produce very heavy rains, high winds, and huge surf across The Bahamas, but the greatest risk for the islands will be the potential for a devastating storm surge. Only a year ago, Category 4 Hurricane Joaquin looped near the easternmost islands at the start of October 2015, inflicting more than $100 million in damage and killing 33 crew members aboard the ill-fated El Faro cargo ship. There is still some uncertainty about Matthew’s path, but it is likely to slice through the heart of The Bahamas, putting many islands on its more dangerous right-hand side. Direct hits on Nassau and/or Freeport are quite possible. Since Matthew’s core of hurricane-force winds is fairly compact, it’s possible that only a few islands will experience such winds, but widespread storm surge of up to 10 - 15 feet is a major concern to the east of Matthew’s expected path. Joaquin produced a 12- to 15-foot surge on Rum Cay, Crooked Island, and Acklins Island.


Figure 4. Official NHC forecast for Matthew as of 5 PM ET Tuesday, October 4, 2016.

Southeast U.S.: Huge surf, heavy rain, high winds, and perhaps a hurricane landfall
The 12Z Tuesday morning suite of computer model guidance doesn’t exactly give us a definitive sense of whether Matthew will make landfall along the Southeast U.S. coast. Of our three top track models, the 12Z operational GFS run brings Matthew to within about 50 miles of the central Florida coast late Thursday, and even closer to the Carolinas, before taking Matthew out to sea without any landfall. The 12Z ECMWF and UKMET runs both bring Matthew ashore in central Florida. The less-reliable GFDL model produces a landfall in South Florida, followed by a track back offshore and a second landfall in North Carolina by Sunday. The HWRF run keeps Matthew more than 100 miles off the Florida coast, then brings Matthew ashore in North Carolina on Saturday. As for ensemble runs, a sizable minority of the 20 members of the GEFS (GFS ensemble) from 12Z Tuesday bring Matthew into central Florida. In the most recent ECMWF ensemble available (00Z Tuesday), all four of the high-probability ensemble members produced a central Florida landfall. Some members of the 12Z Tuesday UKMET and ECMWF ensembles, as well as the 12Z ECMWF operational run, even suggest that Matthew might actually carry out a large cyclonic (right-hand) loop, extending east and then south from the Carolinas back toward Florida--a scenario reminiscent of the huge loop carved out by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. These solutions are outliers, and we will have to wait for additional model support for this idea before considering it as a real possibility.

Forecaster Lixion Avila noted in the 5 PM Tuesday NHC discussion: “It will likely take another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United States to clarify.” If today’s model solutions haven’t yet given us clarity, they do confirm that landfall remains a very real possibility, particularly along the midsection of the Florida coast and again over eastern North Carolina.

Figure 5. In September 1999, Hurricane Floyd approached the Southeast U.S. at Category 3 strength, then carried out an arcing path that brought it ashore as a Category 2 storm at Cape Fear, North Carolina.


Because Matthew will be tracing an arcing path that echoes the coastline itself, it is impossible to tell at this point exactly where that arc will overlap the coast (as evidenced by the model disagreement above). Even in those stretches where Matthew remains just offshore, coastal locations may still experience winds of tropical-storm or even hurricane strength, as well as very heavy rain. At least some flooding can be expected along most of the Southeast coast, as Matthew’s winds drive water ashore. Any direct landfall could lead to a major storm surge. Matthew’s intensity may drop somewhat as wind shear increases after Thursday, but it will likely remain a major hurricane as it threatens the Southeast coast.

One analog for Matthew is Hurricane Floyd (September 1999--see Figure 5 above), which arrived in the Bahamas as a Category 4 storm, then carried out a path near the Southeast coast roughly similar to the one that Matthew might carve out if it were to remain offshore until North Carolina. After triggering the largest peacetime evacuation in U.S. history up to that point, Floyd inflicted close to $10 billion in damage (2016 dollars) and caused 72 U.S. deaths, making it the nation’s deadliest hurricane in more than 25 years. Floyd interacted with a frontal system over the East Coast that led to extremely heavy rains over a large area. The rains in North Carolina, which arrived after heavy rain less than three weeks earlier from Hurricane Dennis, produced all-time record flooding. The high water ruined some 24,000 homes and drowned millions of pigs and chickens. Parts of the east-central U.S. coast have experienced 10” - 15” in rain over the last two weeks (see Figure 6 below), which could exacerbate any potential flood-related impact of heavy rainfall from Matthew.


Figure 6. Observed 14-day precipitation totals (in inches) from 8:00 am EDT Tuesday, September 20, 2016, to 8 am Tuesday, October 4. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 7. Projected 7-day precipitation totals (in inches) from 8:00 am EDT Tuesday, October 4, 2016, to 8 am Tuesday, October 11. The actual amounts will hinge on the final track of Hurricane Matthew. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Could Matthew hit the Northeast U.S.?
It’s quite possible that Matthew will affect the Northeast U.S. after it swings past the Carolinas this weekend, but given the continued divergence in model solutions, it’s too soon to pin down just how likely this is or what the impacts would be. The trend over the last day or two has been for Matthew to continue northeastward past the Carolinas, which reduces the odds of a left-track hook that would produce the worst direct impacts for the Northeast and/or New England. Only a couple of GFS ensemble members from 12Z Tuesday show a direct Matthew landfall north of Virginia, and the ECMWF ensemble suggests that any path over the Northeast coast for Matthew would have a good chance of occurring after a fair bit of time inland. The official NHC outlook as of 5 PM Tuesday has Matthew located about 100 miles south of the Rhode Island coast by Sunday afternoon, still as a Category 1 hurricane (see Figure 4 above).

Coastal residents north of the Carolinas and Virginias all the way to the Canadian Maritimes need to keep an eye on Matthew, as there is plenty of time for the forecast to evolve. Even if Matthew were to weaken and/or stay offshore, very heavy rains and high winds could affect a huge swath of the East Coast if the storm heads in that direction.


Figure 8. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole taken at 1 pm EDT October 4, 2016. At the time, Nicole had sustained winds of 50 mph, and was headed northwest at 8 mph. Upper-level outflow clouds from Hurricane Matthew can be seen at the lower left of the image. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Nicole forms from 98L
The tropical wave about 500 hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico that we were tracking as Invest 98L developed a well-defined surface circulation and enough persistent heavy thunderstorm activity to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Nicole at 11 am EDT Tuesday. Nicole is the fourteenth named storm of this busy 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Satellite imagery shows Nicole has the classic appearance of a tropical storm under high wind shear, with the circulation center exposed to view and all the heavy thunderstorm activity limited to the southeast side. Strong upper-level winds out of the northwest, partially due to upper-level outflow from Hurricane Matthew, are creating 30 - 35 knots of wind shear over Nicole. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows gradually increasing wind shear for Nicole over the next five days, which should weaken the storm to a tropical depression by the weekend. Nicole is not a threat to any land areas this week.

Tropical wave approaching Lesser Antilles has a low chance of development
A large tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 10 - 15 mph, and will spread heavy rains and gusty winds into the islands on Wednesday and Thursday. The wave is unlikely to develop over the next two days, due to high wind shear from the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Matthew. Once the wave reaches the central Caribbean on Friday, wind shear should drop, and the latest GFS model ensemble forecast has about 10% of its members showing development into a tropical depression or tropical storm sometime Friday - Sunday. In their 2 pm EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively.

We’ll be back with our next update by late morning Wednesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


Figure 9. Enhanced infrared satellite image of Hurricane Matthew (left), much smaller Tropical Storm Nicole (top center), and a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands (right), as of 3:45 pm EDT Tuesday, October 4, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 2421. bigwes6844:

Link to webcam in Nassau. There starting to get rain squalls already
Link
Started squalling last night. I pretty much expect off and on rain until it's just on.
Quoting 2336. StormJunkie:



I can not tell you how many times I have thought the same thing. And the STs initials make it even more suspect.

STS displays sociopathic tendencies. I have an MSW from Florida State University. It is common for someone who does not get along in a social environment to seek attention from wherever it can be obtained. Best to agree with them and just move on.
Winds of 120mph and pressure of 962mb on 11am update.
One thing to keep in mind in Florida East Coast tomorrow.
Chances are very, very good that the Florida D.O.T. stops all Southbound and Eastbound traffic flow on main highways and reverses the direction, making all highways outbound traffic only for evacuation.
That means if you are driving your kids, dog, grandma, etc... to evacuation point and then plan to drive back to ride out the storm at home... consider strongly HOW you will get back. Today, tonight and even early morning hours tomorrow may be no problem, but chances are you won't be able to drive back home tomorrow late morning using a highway.

11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 5
Location: 21.8°N 75.2°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
Quoting 2498. UpperLevelLOL:



Oooooh, swing and a miss. Maybe sit this one out for a bit.


Good job, good effort. Take a lap.
Fifty five dropsondes in the 12Z GFS


dropw Dropwinsonde (from TEMP DROP) 55

120 mph winds all ready we can easy see a strong cat 4 or 5 by 5pm update the NHC 130 mph winds are not going too planed out
2509. ProPoly
Quoting 2499. ADCS:



Right - wind and beach erosion. It's not going to be a full-on hit, and I think you'll see some disappointment from the Floridacasters as a result. I'd expect power to be out for a while, but surge effects will be attenuated from being on the left side of the storm.


That 11am cone is a hit.
Quoting 2403. depalma13:

Filling up your car's gas tank is great, but don't forget to make sure your spare tire is inflated.

Also part of your hurricane preparedness purchases should include at least two cans of fix a flat. Debris on the ground can puncture tires and you just may need a quick fix in a hurry.


Actually one of those 12V air compressors that plugs into the lighter slot is a good idea too for slow leaks. They're around 10 bucks at Family Dollar, near 20 in first order retail and have saved me several times.
Quoting 2501. BahaHurican:

Started squalling last night. I pretty much expect off and on rain until it's just on.
Finally caught up with you.It looks like Matthew us quickly on his way to cat 4 status again.
Quoting 2498. UpperLevelLOL:



Oooooh, swing and a miss. Maybe sit this one out for a bit.
I'll be sitting it out very close to the center in downtown Melbourne.
2513. guxtrop
Quoting 2502. panamasteve:


STS displays sociopathic tendencies. I have an MSW from Florida State University. It is common for someone who does not get along in a social environment to seek attention from wherever it can be obtained. Best to agree with them and just move on.


Are not you doing the same thing?
"to seek attention from wherever it can be obtained"......." I have an MSW from Florida State University"
Quoting 2488. StormJunkie:

It's not 100% all the time, but they often point out where the shorter term movement will be.


matthew is heading due northwest approx 40-60 miles south of the forecasted track from just yesterday.  i don't believe he is moving due north, the latest loops are just evidence of the eye repairing itself after land shear over cuban mountains.  matthew isn't going to pivot or turn north for days now due to the ridging.  i expect a westward shift of the predicted track today, if not 2-3 shifts as model runs become available. 

due to how far south he has made his northwest turn wishcasters saying miami/dade is out of the woods should be careful to avoid pontificating, because those plates of crow are going to be enormous piles of crap to eat.
2515. Patrap
2516. vis0

This is NOT a game of Dodge Ball.

 
 
(Instead of all the words below (in this comment) one can see get a hint of hit n miss destruction by recollecting how a
strong Tornado can literally destroy one home and leave a home next to it untouched (except for holes made by flying pieces of the destroyed homes moving at jet speeds of ~100 to 200+ mph)         &n bsp; In a Hurricane that area of damage
is wider so less of a chance to be "lucky" (really micro-science, that discussion is for afterwards).  You get more of a warning with a Hurricane so one can't say "...it just appeared out of no-where.")

 

 Sure afterwards they'll be some (irresponsible people) saying "but my area survived a major
hurricane".
 
Yet when you look at the recorded wind fields that "survival" was due to the reality of science as the devastating wind field might be 30, 40, 60+ miles wide and they were at mile 90 so they do not (want) see the 60 miles of devastation, their closed mind only sees the 30 miles from their area to where
the devastation began.      Those 60 miles can also be measured as countless numbers of heartbroken families, destroyed homes, buildings (businesses) and one can figure out many more things that are turned upside-down by such destruction.
      
Am not naming all that be turned upside-down as those reading this in warned areas need not more words but an immediate decision.  
 
Its better to leave if you are in the warned areas then come back to a community that did not go through what was expected so THEN you can help those just 30 miles away that have lost things that have monetary value than to be injured in immense pain and not be able to receive quick medical treatment because a storm is overhead, flooding and blocked or destroyed roads.

BE ALERT RESPECT NATURE, you think stubbing a toe or choking on a sip of water is scary/painful i think  debris flying over 100mph and an ocean at your doorstep FOR HOURS (water for days) is worse.
 

Hmmm... The NHS 11am interactive map is showing Matthew closest approach to land just off Melbourne, going north for a bit, turn out to sea, and then southward (start of loop?).
Matthew strengthened a little according to the NHC, winds up to 120MPH!

It appears more organized.
2519. snowboy
Matthew getting stronger with every frame in the satellite images. Moving northwest 12 mph.
2520. Xandtar
000
WTNT34 KNHC 051454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE BAHAMAS AFTER HITTING
CUBA HARD...
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES SIMULTANEOUSLY
PENETRATE MATTHEW'S EYE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 75.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF CABO LUCRECIA CUBA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward from Sebastian
Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county line.

The Hurricane Warning for Haiti has been changed to a Tropical
Storm Warning.

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican
Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 75.2 West. Matthew is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track,
Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas through Thursday, and is
expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Matthew is expected to remain at category
3 or stronger while it moves through the Bahamas and approaches the
east coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). An unconfirmed wind gust of 155 mph (250 km/h) was
reported in Baracoa, Cuba, last night as the eye of Matthew passed
nearby.

The minimum central pressure reported by both Hurricane Hunter
planes was 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will gradually diminish over portions of
eastern Cuba today. These conditions will continue over the
southeastern Bahamas, and will spread over the central Bahamas later
today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward
Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first
expected in Florida by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Coastal east-central Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern
and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and
eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of
life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the
Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia
county line. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation
during the next 48 hours from north of the Flagler/Volusia county
line to Fernandina Beach. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas during
the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of
Florida and the southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
I'm concerned about the evacuation messages coming out in certain areas that the storm is unlikely to significantly impact at all. It sends the wrong signal to people - the next time an evacuation is ordered, they may just ignore the authorities at their own peril.
2523. Patrap

NOAA9 Mission #22 into MATTHEW
Type: Upper-level / Dropsonde | Status: Finished

As of 13:51 UTC Oct 05, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 27.83°N 82.52°W
Bearing: 90° at 0 kt
Altitude: 7 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 17 kt at 302°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1011.4 mb


Quoting 2490. PPUGrad04:



Diversity of thought? Sure. Reckless speculation backed up by no facts or figures whatsoever? No.

Hey, I think the sun will rise in the west tomorrow. I have no facts to back up my contention - just my diverse thought.
you guys sure are breaking a lot of blog rules on here attacking others for their weather opinions and not talking about the weather. if you don't agree fine, but i don't see you working for the nhc i see you on a blog like the rest of us. no need to be snobs and sobs i still think it goes further east than you wish. take all that bickering and whining to twitter or facebook not on the weather blog
Bear with me, what are the chances of this storm shifting more west in the next advisory @5:00pm? I'm in Miami, and have family living in a mobile home park. Very concerned with any last minute changes to the forcast.
Quoting 2499. ADCS:



Right - wind and beach erosion. It's not going to be a full-on hit, and I think you'll see some disappointment from the Floridacasters as a result. I'd expect power to be out for a while, but surge effects will be attenuated from being on the left side of the storm.

The new cone begs to differ
Hello All,
Since I am a noob to Hurricane Tracking, I am looking for an opinion as to what should we should expect on the Gulf coast. It is hard for me to believe the local forecast of breezy with a 40% chance of rain for the Citrus County area Thursday and Friday since we are less than 2 hours from Orlando and it seems that Matt want to stay close or make landfall on the east coast.
Any thoughts?
2528. markot
havnt heard anyone mention the gulf stream that will further strengthen Matthew...
Quoting 2516. vis0:

This is NOT a game of Dodge Ball.

 
 
(Instead of all the words below (in this comment) one can see get a hint of hit n miss destruction by recollecting how a
strong Tornado can literally destroy one home and leave a home next to it untouched (except for holes made by flying pieces of the destroyed homes moving at jet speeds of ~100 to 200+ mph)         &a mp;n bsp; In a Hurricane that area of damage
is wider so less of a chance to be "lucky" (really micro-science, that discussion is for afterwards).  You get more of a warning with a Hurricane so one can't say "...it just appeared out of no-where.")

 

 Sure afterwards they'll be some (irresponsible people) saying "but my area survived a major
hurricane".
 
Yet when you look at the recorded wind fields that "survival" was due to the reality of science as the devastating wind field might be 30, 40, 60+ miles wide and they were at mile 90 so they do not (want) see the 60 miles of devastation, their closed mind only sees the 30 miles from their area to where
the devastation began.      Those 60 miles can also be measured as countless numbers of heartbroken families, destroyed homes, buildings (businesses) and one can figure out many more things that are turned upside-down by such destruction.
      
Am not naming all that be turned upside-down as those reading this in warned areas need not more words but an immediate decision.  
 
Its better to leave if you are in the warned areas then come back to a community that did not go through what was expected so THEN you can help those just 30 miles away that have lost things that have monetary value than to be injured in immense pain and not be able to receive quick medical treatment because a storm is overhead, flooding and blocked or destroyed roads.

BE ALERT RESPECT NATURE, you think stubbing a toe or choking on a sip of water is scary/painful i think  debris flying over 100mph and an ocean at your doorstep FOR HOURS (water for days) is worse.
 



That's a lot of screaming.....dang my eyes hurt...
Hurricane Warning now in effect to the Volusia/Flagler County Line. Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral, and Daytona Beach are now included.
ACE up to 88 now. Tomorrow we should pass the full season long term average of 92, so this season won't end up below normal.
2532. Patrap




Quoting 2527. BadCompany13:

Hello All,
Since I am a noob to Hurricane Tracking, I am looking for an opinion as to what should we should expect on the Gulf coast. It is hard for me to believe the local forecast of breezy with a 40% chance of rain for the Citrus County area Thursday and Friday since we are less than 2 hours from Orlando and it seems that Matt want to stay close or make landfall on the east coast.
Any thoughts?

Chance of TS force winds IMO
lol


the NHC says mat moving NW but when we see mat its moveing more like WNW
Quoting 2525. Terri2003:

Bear with me, what are the chances of this storm shifting more west in the next advisory @5:00pm? I'm in Miami, and have family living in a mobile home park. Very concerned with any last minute changes to the forcast.
Slim. I don't think the models supported the 11am westward shift as they continue to diverge and most still call for the storm to make no landfall whatsoever in the CONUS on its first pass. I think it was done, very similarly to the pre-Katrina warning message, to arouse the attentions and concerns of people in the eastern half of Florida who may have been dragging their heels in preparation.
Quoting 2516. vis0:

This is NOT a game of Dodge Ball.





However, the five D's of dodge ball are all still applicable. Dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge.
2537. Patrap
Up 1 mb on that last pass
2539. hmroe
Quoting 2509. ProPoly:



That 11am cone is a hit.


Nope
2540. Patrap
Quoting 2527. BadCompany13:

Hello All,
Since I am a noob to Hurricane Tracking, I am looking for an opinion as to what should we should expect on the Gulf coast. It is hard for me to believe the local forecast of breezy with a 40% chance of rain for the Citrus County area Thursday and Friday since we are less than 2 hours from Orlando and it seems that Matt want to stay close or make landfall on the east coast.
Any thoughts?
At this point, anything on a range between sunshine and lolipops to strong TS conditions is very possible. Unlikely to be stronger than that so far west, but Matthew could still expand its wind field or deviate from its projected track.
Quoting 2532. Patrap:






Notice convection firing infront of the system sign of a moist atmosphere
2543. pingon
Quoting 2534. thetwilightzone:

lol


the NHC says mat moving NW but when we see mat its moveing more like WNW
REPORTED!!!
2544. Patrap
We all do no that at this point a land fall vs a non land fall at that location means nearly nothing.

Quoting 2539. hmroe:



Nope
Tip: If you live in a Florida, South or North Carolina coastal community and have an old cell phone or two in a junk drawer... plug them in and charge the battery. They are useful in an emergency.
Any old, decommissioned cell phone can be used to make 911 calls, as long as the battery is good.

The Federal Communications Commission requires all cell phone service providers, like Sprint, AT&T and Bell Atlantic, to accept 911 calls from any wireless phone -- even one that no longer has a phone number or service contract.

On an uninitialized phone, emergency services may not be able to quickly obtain information information such as name and address, but they might be able to locate the source of any call. Anyway, you can give them your location and information. If you are staying through the storm, keeping the old cell phones ready as an emergency call device is smart.
Long time lurker/reader but rarely post...

From NHC Discussion:
2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
force winds offshore.


Forgive me if this has been said before - Charley cone caused Greater Tampa area to be a ghost town. An October hurricane generally moving from south to north and then a right pivot into Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte. Makes it so hard for the forecasters - millions of potential citizens at risk. Still a few days to know for sure, slight changes to cone likely but don't be surprised if Matthew makes landfall.
Quoting 2504. RetainingH2O:

One thing to keep in mind in Florida East Coast tomorrow.
Chances are very, very good that the Florida D.O.T. stops all Southbound and Eastbound traffic flow on main highways and reverses the direction, making all highways outbound traffic only for evacuation.
That means if you are driving your kids, dog, grandma, etc... to evacuation point and then plan to drive back to ride out the storm at home... consider strongly HOW you will get back. Today, tonight and even early morning hours tomorrow may be no problem, but chances are you won't be able to drive back home tomorrow late morning using a highway.

Take back roads (old county or state highways, even if now they have suburbs and malls) if you can. The interstates will be crawling with frequent breakdowns along the sides. It is easier to get around an accident or roadblock on an old highway since there will be more intersections and parallel roads.
Thanks. if you adjust the animation speed before posting does it reflect that when you post?

Quoting 2544. Patrap:


Quoting 2524. sarahjola:

you guys sure are breaking a lot of blog rules on here attacking others for their weather opinions and not talking about the weather. if you don't agree fine, but i don't see you working for the nhc i see you on a blog like the rest of us. no need to be snobs and sobs i still think it goes further east than you wish. take all that bickering and whining to twitter or facebook not on the weather blog


I live in Pittsburgh. Thus, this storm will likely have zero impact on me personally.

HOWEVER...there are millions of people in South Florida who very well may have a Cat 4/5 hurricane blasting through their homes in the coming days. I have considered this a vast possibility since I saw Matthew bearing down on Haiti and doing what he wasn't supposed to be doing afterward.

Speculation with no facts posted to back up an assertion is dangerous, as it can provide false calm to a person who is reading it and full of worry and angst.

I rather enjoy this blog, because there are many commenters who do provide FACTS and useful data regarding these storms. I don't enjoy reading baseless speculation and wishcasting (to use a term I see on here a lot).

So...
Quoting 2366. JeffreyLXV:



Rick Scott's plan is to defund public services, cut taxes and drug-check people on assistance with his own company.


Not in touch with Florida politics these days, haven't lived there in 20 years, but it was never ever anything that, you know, you would want to expose nice people to, but I will say this: He sounds impossibly stupid on the radio. But then, most politicians do these days.
Welp, I'm out of the cone of doom. Anyone else who is, DO NOT let your guard down, prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
Quoting 2455. Ricki13th:


The Bahamas is very shallow and small. With very warm waters in between. Remember Joaquin from 2015, it when over the Bahamas and rapidly intensified to a Cat. 4
To be fair, Joaquin was coming in from the intensely warm NE side, where the water is deep right up to San Salvador, Samana Cays, and Mayaguana. Coming up from the south is a slightly different proposition, given the shallow bathymetry of the Great Bahama Bank.
My observation is The convection around the eye seems to be having some issues, Recon found a 1mb higher pressure. The inflow is getting blocked by Cuba right now so Matthew has to pull away a little more from the northern coast. More rapid deepening should occur later this afternoon once it does.
Pasco county mayor just said do not trust the NHC models. The storm is shifting more and more west and we need to prepare for the worst.
I see I am now in a Hurricane Warning
2557. 7544
if mathew gets stronger are we going to see buzz saw heading to fl but serious peeps this is getting real
2558. Patrap
Quoting 2514. odinslightning:

matthew is heading due northwest approx 40-60 miles south of the forecasted track from just yesterday.  i don't believe he is moving due north, the latest loops are just evidence of the eye repairing itself after land shear over cuban mountains.  matthew isn't going to pivot or turn north for days now due to the ridging.  i expect a westward shift of the predicted track today, if not 2-3 shifts as model runs become available. 

due to how far south he has made his northwest turn wishcasters saying miami/dade is out of the woods should be careful to avoid pontificating, because those plates of crow are going to be enormous piles of crap to eat.

Dude. Matthew was FORECAST to turn NW at this point ..... relax .... deep breaths ..... you'll be okay.
Quoting 2541. lexslamman:

At this point, anything on a range between sunshine and lolipops to strong TS conditions is very possible. Unlikely to be stronger than that so far west, but Matthew could still expand its wind field or deviate from its projected track.


I hope this link works.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtm l/153536.shtml?gm_track#contents

Need I remind you that on Monday, the NHC had Matthew tracking well off to the east of Florida. It also did NOT have Matthew going anywhere near Cuba, let alone over it.

I see more wishcasting on here than should be occurring. That's a damn shame.
2561. Xulonn
Quoting 2529. stormhawg:
That's a lot of screaming.....dang my eyes hurt...
We have a few regulars here who have good things to say, but are not great at presenting their thoughts either graphically or with perfect English. vis0 is one of those regulars that many of us who are here as year-around regulars have come to appreciate.

Rather than complain about non-perfect posts, it is better to criticize - or better yet, flag - comments that are space-wasting, irrelevant and/or trollish.

You can also set the comments "Filter" to show only "Good" comments, which will make it easier to keep up with a frantically busy blog like today. You can still click on the eye button to show hidden comments by commenters that you recognize, or use the "Ignore" feature to block people whose comments you do not want to see at all.
rapid scan satellite - Matthew not quite in the field yet

Link
2563. Sasha
I'm 70 miles inland in Seminole County and they just changed us from a Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning.
Quoting 2547. thepoint:

Long time lurker/reader but rarely post...

From NHC Discussion:
2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
force winds offshore.


Forgive me if this has been said before - Charley cone caused Greater Tampa area to be a ghost town. An October hurricane generally moving from south to north and then a right pivot into Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte. Makes it so hard for the forecasters - millions of potential citizens at risk. Still a few days to know for sure, slight changes to cone likely but don't be surprised if Matthew makes landfall.



Hurricane Charley was an August hurricane.
2565. Patrap
Quoting 2549. ryanstacos88:

Thanks. if you adjust the animation speed before posting does it reflect that when you post?




Thevloops are set by the noaa server,

I just post them.


Major Matt has cleared the planets moon.



Quoting 2550. PPUGrad04:



I live in Pittsburgh. Thus, this storm will likely have zero impact on me personally.

HOWEVER...there are millions of people in South Florida who very well may have a Cat 4/5 hurricane blasting through their homes in the coming days. I have considered this a vast possibility since I saw Matthew bearing down on Haiti and doing what he wasn't supposed to be doing afterward.

Speculation with no facts posted to back up an assertion is dangerous, as it can provide false calm to a person who is reading it and full of worry and angst.

I rather enjoy this blog, because there are many commenters who do provide FACTS and useful data regarding these storms. I don't enjoy reading baseless speculation and wishcasting (to use a term I see on here a lot).

So...

Luckily, I'm safe unless Matt really is the ghost of Hazel, decides to ride up here like "Hey Ontario, missed me?"
2567. ProPoly
Quoting 2547. thepoint:

Long time lurker/reader but rarely post...

From NHC Discussion:
2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
force winds offshore.


Forgive me if this has been said before - Charley cone caused Greater Tampa area to be a ghost town. An October hurricane generally moving from south to north and then a right pivot into Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte. Makes it so hard for the forecasters - millions of potential citizens at risk. Still a few days to know for sure, slight changes to cone likely but don't be surprised if Matthew makes landfall.




Matthew's eye isn't very small anymore either. Enough of this "LOL, core will be 10 miles off my barrier island, lame fish storm" crap.
This does not look good.
2569. AVL
Wind speed increasing but pressure increasing also???
Quoting 2550. PPUGrad04:



I live in Pittsburgh. Thus, this storm will likely have zero impact on me personally.

HOWEVER...there are millions of people in South Florida who very well may have a Cat 4/5 hurricane blasting through their homes in the coming days. I have considered this a vast possibility since I saw Matthew bearing down on Haiti and doing what he wasn't supposed to be doing afterward.

Speculation with no facts posted to back up an assertion is dangerous, as it can provide false calm to a person who is reading it and full of worry and angst.

I rather enjoy this blog, because there are many commenters who do provide FACTS and useful data regarding these storms. I don't enjoy reading baseless speculation and wishcasting (to use a term I see on here a lot).

So...
i dont enjoy coming to a opinion blog and seeing ppl get attacked for their opinion.no one is coming here for life saving info if y'all believe that then i got a bridge to sell you.what ppl do come here for is to see others opinions and give theirs. if ppl want true and accurate info they should not be on a blog where they can be attacked for asking a question or for giving their opinion. they should be watching their local news of conferring with nhc. lets stop all the bashing and if you don't like what someone said move on from it. no one on here is technically qualified to give life saving info so please lets get off the high horse and realize this blog is all opinion from non mets
Quoting 2568. JNFlori30A:

This does not look good.


It DOES if you are in the business of selling orange traffic cones.
2572. dezli
This is so true. I watch this blog quite closely during storms and I get alot of information from you all.

Quoting 2550. PPUGrad04:



I live in Pittsburgh. Thus, this storm will likely have zero impact on me personally.

HOWEVER...there are millions of people in South Florida who very well may have a Cat 4/5 hurricane blasting through their homes in the coming days. I have considered this a vast possibility since I saw Matthew bearing down on Haiti and doing what he wasn't supposed to be doing afterward.

Speculation with no facts posted to back up an assertion is dangerous, as it can provide false calm to a person who is reading it and full of worry and angst.

I rather enjoy this blog, because there are many commenters who do provide FACTS and useful data regarding these storms. I don't enjoy reading baseless speculation and wishcasting (to use a term I see on here a lot).

So...
It wouldn't shock me if Matt made landfall on the western side of Andros and stayed along the western portion of the cone and South Florida.
Quoting 2549. ryanstacos88:

Thanks. if you adjust the animation speed before posting does it reflect that when you post?


Looks to be heading toward the WPB area at he moment with the NW track it is on. It was supposed to start NW tonite.
Either there are bumps or Matthew is trying to turn more wnw/nw. Note how half of the GFS ensembles have it inland over Florida. 20-60 miles to the left and you have it going up the spine of eastern florida.
2576. Patrap
As Mr. horse would say,

"Hmmmm,....No Sir, I don't like it"




🌎🌊🎑🌞✌😱
Quoting 2552. ElConando:

Welp, I'm out of the cone of doom. Anyone else who is, DO NOT let your guard down, prepare for the worst, hope for the best.


I may be joining you soon, though on the opposite end of the cone
2578. hmroe
Quoting 2526. wunderkidwx:


The new cone begs to differ


What do you see different from the 5? I see it's pulled east off the SE of FL and SE SC
2579. Dakster
Quoting 2568. JNFlori30A:

This does not look good.



In Florida we call it, Wednesday...
Cuban radar (hope I didn't forget how to post a link)

Link
Quoting 2555. Jacksparrows:

Pasco county mayor just said do not trust the NHC models. The storm is shifting more and more west and we need to prepare for the worst.

I'd trust the professionals over the mayor. That's just me.
Quoting 2571. RetainingH2O:


It DOES if you are in the business of selling orange traffic cones.


Looks like someones been sh*tting the cone. A lot.
2583. Plaza23
Surprised that NHC's cone is more NW or NNW, while the current movement based on radar certainly looks WNW. How long does the current movement have to keep up for NHC to change?
2584. BayFog

Matthew recovers its eye while Nicole consolidates.
Any chane the models take this storm just a little north and into the NC coastline or is that out? Can that High relax? I see the 0Z CMC still has a NC strike?
Quoting 2560. PPUGrad04:



I hope this link works.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtm l/153536.shtml?gm_track#contents

Need I remind you that on Monday, the NHC had Matthew tracking well off to the east of Florida. It also did NOT have Matthew going anywhere near Cuba, let alone over it.

I see more wishcasting on here than should be occurring. That's a damn shame.
I see a lot of misinformation, too. Not only did the NHC have Matthew striking the far western tip of Haiti and the far eastern tip of Cuba in its 11a advisory on Monday, but Matthew is still well within their cone posted 11a on 10/3.
2588. nash36
Quoting 2578. hmroe:



What do you see different from the 5? I see it's pulled east off the SE of FL and SE SC


It doesn't matter. 50 miles offshore from Charleston will still be bad. Nothing has changed.
Quoting 2578. hmroe:



What do you see different from the 5? I see it's pulled east off the SE of FL and SE SC

Based on what? Models are still west, like yesterday
2590. Patrap
Quoting 2555. Jacksparrows:

Pasco county mayor just said do not trust the NHC models. The storm is shifting more and more west and we need to prepare for the worst.




Pat knows that you can never trust the mayor in situations like this.

Quoting 2559. BahaHurican:

Dude. Matthew was FORECAST to turn NW at this point ..... relax .... deep breaths ..... you'll be okay.

lol i am relaxed. i realize he was suppose to turn nw.  my point is that he has made that turn further south.  he was suppose to go straight through the middle of the bahama isle chain, and i realize that was the mean average of the models & what nhc had predicted, and i also realize he is still in the cone of uncertainty.  my point was that the turn due northwest this far south could cause him to plot on the left side of the cone of uncertainty.  that would mean south florida could feel the effects more, at worst could be hit by a landfalling major.
Seems to me that one possible plan of action for Miami-Dade/Broward residents is to monitor the storm and plan an evacuation late tonight or early tomorrow morning (when traffic is lightest) WEST to the Everglades City/Naples area, if it is needed. Should be enough to escape the worst of the storm and much less traffic - especially a lot easier coming back.
Quoting 2512. FLWeatherFreak91:

I'll be sitting it out very close to the center in downtown Melbourne.


Yup over here in Indialantic buttoning up the house, will be happy just to get off the island!
this is the most reluctantle forcast ive ever seen, Cutos M att
2596. ProPoly
Quoting 2586. joseph1010:

Any chane the models take this storm just a little north and into the NC coastline or is that out? Can that High relax? I see the 0Z CMC still has a NC strike?


NC coast is in the five-day cone for a direct hit. So yes.
Quoting 2581. floriduh:


I'd trust the professionals over the mayor. That's just me.


Then watcha doin' here? :)
2598. Michfan
This product covers east central Florida

... New warnings issued for east central Florida...
... Powerful Hurricane Matthew expected to approach very close to the
east central Florida coast Thursday night and into Friday...

New information
---------------

* changes to watches and warnings:
- a tropical storm watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Northern Lake County... Southern Lake County
- a Hurricane Warning has been issued for inland Volusia
County... Orange... Seminole... southern Brevard
County... Osceola... coastal Volusia County and northern Brevard
County

* current watches and warnings:
- a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Northern Lake
County... Southern Lake County
- a Hurricane Warning is in effect for inland Volusia
County... Orange... Seminole... southern Brevard
County... Osceola... coastal Volusia County and northern Brevard
County
- a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Indian
River... Okeechobee... St. Lucie and Martin

* storm information:
- about 570 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about 510
miles southeast of Fort Pierce FL
- 21.8n 75.2w
- storm intensity 120 mph
- movement northwest or 325 degrees at 12 mph

Situation overview
------------------
major Hurricane Matthew is currently moving to the northwest over
the southeastern Bahamas and is forecast to move very near or along
the East Coast of Florida Thursday evening and Friday.

Matthew is an extremely dangerous hurricane that has potential to
produce widespread to extensive damage... especially over the coastal
counties of east central Florida. Do not focus on the exact track as
small changes to the track may bring significant changes to the local
impacts across east central Florida. Now is the time to act! Everyone
should bring their hurricane preparations to completion today.

Conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate initially across the
Treasure Coast Thursday afternoon before spreading north and northwest
Thursday night into Friday. The relatively close approach of Hurricane
Matthew to east central Florida will bring a period of damaging
hurricane force winds to the coast overnight Thursday night and into
Friday afternoon. Inland counties will also see a likelihood of
sustained tropical storm force winds roughly from Metro Orlando
eastward with possible gusts to hurricane force in squalls from late
Thursday night and into Friday morning.

A moderate threat of hazardous storm surge inundation exists along the
barrier islands with dangerous storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet
above ground expected. Large breaking waves are forecast to peak over
12 feet and produce rough, pounding surf resulting in a significant
hazard of coastal flooding along with very severe beach and dune
erosion.

Heavy rain will occur in squalls across east central Florida Thursday
into Friday. Rain amounts of 4 to 7 inches will be possible with
locally higher amounts especially along the coast. Soils saturated in
some areas from recent rains will quickly produce water ponding.
Standing water in flood prone areas will be capable of entering homes
and businesses during this event.

Residents and visitors to east central Florida are strongly encouraged
to monitor the latest track and intensity forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center.

Potential impacts
-----------------

* wind:
protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across the coastal communities of east central Florida .
Potential impacts in this area include:
- structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of Mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible
significant to extensive impacts across inland areas.

* Surge:
protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the barrier islands of east central Florida. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, piers, and other
coastal structures. Several small craft broken away from
moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages.

* Flooding rain:
protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across most of east central Florida. Potential
impacts include:
- moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches will overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
will become hazardous with some Road and bridge closures.

* Tornadoes:
protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across east central Florida. Potential impacts include:
- the occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.

Precautionary/preparedness actions
----------------------------------
* evacuations:
for those under evacuation orders, leave as
soon as practical with a destination in mind. Gas up your vehicle
well ahead of time. Be sure that you take all essential materials
from your emergency supplies kit. Let others know where you are going
and when you intend to arrive.

* Other preparedness information:
now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan.

Outside preparations should be wrapped up as soon as possible before
weather conditions deteriorate. Any remaining evacuations and
relocations should be completed before the onset of tropical storm
force winds.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to
the forecast.

* Additional sources of information:
- for information on appropriate preparations see ready.Gov
- for information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.Org
- for additional disaster preparedness information see Redcross.Org

Next update
-----------
the next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.


Ulrich
2599. Patrap


12z 12 hours:

It's like sifting through a dumpster to get to the good comments on this blog any more. Definitely not like it was 10 years ago.

Just because you can post, doesnt mean you should.
Quoting 2552. ElConando:

Welp, I'm out of the cone of doom. Anyone else who is, DO NOT let your guard down, prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

I'm out also. But considering that this time yesterday it was pretty much right over my house I'm taking nothing for granted.
Orlando now in Hurricane Warning status.

Quoting 2555. Jacksparrows:

Pasco county mayor just said do not trust the NHC models. The storm is shifting more and more west and we need to prepare for the worst.
Why would you do crap like that? Can't you just say "We're just outside the cone, so we should stay vigilant"? smh
Please don't forget to include pets in your emergency evacuation plans.

2606. centex
The southward change (Day 6) before it goes out to sea means it may revisit the Bahamas and all those old NE Conus solutions out the window. But that was a big change in the models so will need to see if that holds in coming days.
If Matthew does indeed loop back towards Florida and make a second landfall there I will be completely done with 2016 as a whole.
Quoting 2593. LesBonsTemps:

Seems to me that one possible plan of action for Miami-Dade/Broward residents is to monitor the storm and plan an evacuation late tonight or early tomorrow morning WEST to the Everglades City/Naples area, if it is needed. Should be enough to escape the worst of the storm and much less traffic - especially a lot easier coming back.


Hotels are starting to fill up with people over here in S.W. Florida (Fort Myers area) as reported by NBC-2 news. Very easy for people in the Palm Beach areas to take highway 80 straight across the state to the west coast. I'm sure 80 will eventually get pretty busy (only a two lane road for a good portion).
Quoting 2587. lexslamman:

I see a lot of misinformation, too. Not only did the NHC have Matthew striking the far western tip of Haiti and the far eastern tip of Cuba in its 11a advisory on Monday, but Matthew is still well within their cone posted 11a on 10/3.


Sorry. Got my old glasses on today because my good ones broke. I do apologize.

Still, looking at the track from Monday, it has it far east of what it is now. The trend has been west. The trend, my friend, is your friend.

Or, I guess if you live in South Florida, it is your foe.
Another System impacting Taiwan, although just barely. New TD on its way past.

2611. Patrap


Just checking in after after the 11:00 am update; this is not a joke.....Looks like potential doom scenario from the Space Coast to the North to Jax.......................Today is the day for all Coastal Florida residents from Palm Beach to the North to secure and protect all coastal properties and finalize your supplies and evacuation plans if this will be the case.
After a 10 year hiatus with no hurricanes especially the east side of FL, and for those that have been foaming at the mouths for one all these years.....well it's checkmate for ya now folks. The chickens are coming home to roost. I know a lot don't want a hurricane but there are a lot that do and it's time to tie yourselves to the wheel of the ship, and going down with it. Good luck.
12z 24 hours

Quoting 2560. PPUGrad04:



I hope this link works.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtm l/153536.shtml?gm_track#contents

Need I remind you that on Monday, the NHC had Matthew tracking well off to the east of Florida. It also did NOT have Matthew going anywhere near Cuba, let alone over it.

I see more wishcasting on here than should be occurring. That's a damn shame.
Huh? Cuba has been in the cone pretty much since there WAS a cone..... watchu talkin' bout, Willis?
Quoting 2597. Lobstah999:



Then watcha doin' here? :)

Not sure, stumbled upon the site by typing in random letters in my browser :)
Looks like the storm is quickly recovering and is moving more west than north! The Keys & Miami should be prepping, perhaps getting into the Gulf???
Hi guys. First time poster, long time storm watcher. And I happen to live in Broward county so it looks like I'm in for a ride. Reading this blog has been fascinating! Didn't Dr. Masters say there would be a new blog update around 10?
Quoting 2616. BahaHurican:

Huh? Cuba has been in the cone pretty much since there WAS a cone..... watchu talkin' bout, Willis?


Baha, as many others have expressed my thoughts are with you! Hunker down and stay safe. I expect a full report on my desk by Friday!
In the 11 p.m. discussion last night the forecast 12 hour positions was 21.7°N 74.8°W.

The actual position at 11 a.m. today was 21.8°N 75.2°W.

So Matthew's eye was 0.1°north and 0.4°west of its predicted position.

Solve for positions if Matthew stays 0.4°W of its forecast track.

Solve for position if Matthew moves an additional 0.4°W for each 12 hour period.
Quoting 2618. CentralTxDave:

Looks like the storm is quickly recovering and is moving more west than north! The Keys & Miami should be prepping, perhaps getting into the Gulf???
Where is that facepalm meme when you need it?

Quoting 2584. BayFog:


Matthew recovers its eye while Nicole consolidates.

notice the ridging has deepened to the north of matthew and now extends back towards the ga/sc coastline.  as the northern section of the gom trough slides out away east i expect the ridging will deepen even further and bridge into the atl coastline.

meanwhile nicole just went kaboom with some cloud tops, however note how he dwarf's her.  and he has already started to wrap deep convection with girth back around the northern quads.  i expect r.i. in the middle of dmin, and an explosion overnight in dmax. 

my only rhetorical question is how deep is the ridging going to dig in.  he is pumping the ridge already.
GFS slightly west in 24 hours vs 6z. May not be a good run for us in Florida
People are evacuating from South Florida and FHP has a bunch of speed traps on I-75 between Wildwood and Gainesville.
Quoting 2568. JNFlori30A:

This does not look good.




I live in Northwest Dade, and will stay at home. Really, where is there to go? Got stuck in traffic during Hurricane Katrina. Won't risk that again.
Tip for people who want to help in a different sort of way:
After a severe hurricane, the SPCA rescuers will literally have THOUSANDS of animals in the affected area that need to be rescued. Flooded areas, severely damaged homes, etc... that have cages of hamsters, birds, reptiles, ferrets, rabbits, etc... or even farm animals that need rescue... are pretty common.
One thing most often in short supply is CAGES and Pet Carriers.
If you are in a safe area and want to help, contact your local SPCA and give them your old aquarium, bird cage, hamster cage or pet carrier. When they get flooded with rescue animals (and they will), having those cages will make quite a difference. The SPCA people normally have channels to get the supplies to those rescuers that need them.
Quoting 2619. FloridaGirlNikki:

Hi guys. First time poster, long time storm watcher. And I happen to live in Broward county so it looks like I'm in for a ride. Reading this blog has been fascinating! Didn't Dr. Masters say there would be a new blog update around 10?
Central, I think, which means any time now ....
Removed comment

Time frame looks pretty close and at 36 hours. Matthew is slightly west in the 12z of the 06Z.
36 hours: Not much more time to get out or prepare.

Quoting 2583. Plaza23:

Surprised that NHC's cone is more NW or NNW, while the current movement based on radar certainly looks WNW. How long does the current movement have to keep up for NHC to change?


It isn't WNW. It is NW, currently just a hair to the west of the forecast points. You can see the direction based on aircraft recon.
2632. dezli
I keep hitting refresh and still no Dr. Masters update?
Quoting 2564. knightdog:



Hurricane Charley was an August hurricane.


August 13 if I recall. I worked relief in Punta Gorda after that hurricane. Recall a huge upper end mobile home park that looked like a bomb hit it - nothing left standing. Be careful and follow your local EMS directions.
I have to be honest, looking at the visible satellite, Matthew sure seems to be heading for the Keys. Maybe it is my eyes?
2635. hmroe
Quoting 2589. Icybubba:


Based on what? Models are still west, like yesterday


I see two spots on the 11am NHC advisory graphic that are different from the 5am advisory. As I pointed out, SE FL and SE SC. It's small (like a half a degree, but it's there.
Quoting 2632. dezli:

I keep hitting refresh and still no Dr. Masters update?


Update is coming in the next few minutes--hang tight!
Quoting 2618. CentralTxDave:

Looks like the storm is quickly recovering and is moving more west than north! The Keys & Miami should be prepping, perhaps getting into the Gulf???


Miami is not under a Hurricane Warning so people are blowing it off. I think the fact they're not under at least a Watch is a bit ridiculous.
Quoting 2620. VAbeachhurricanes:



Baha, as many others have expressed my thoughts are with you! Hunker down and stay safe. I expect a full report on my desk by Friday!
Thanks for the kind thoughts.... to everyone who has thought and expressed them. I can only say they are deeply appreciated.

I only hope I am in a position to give a report by Friday ..... tomorrow may be .... disruptive .... lol ...
so Matthew is currently heading right toward Palm Beach.... it isn't forecasted to make a turn until Friday evening, which would place it well inland.

What's going to change it's heading before then? I'm not liking what I'm seeing. At least recon hasn't indicating any strengthening yet, so that's good!
The wrong people evacuated for Hurricane Charley when it came up Florida's Gulf coast. I think the same thing is going to happen with Hurricane Matthew.
48-h
Ncep -gfs

Europ

U.K. met


Ahh thank you!

Quoting 2628. BahaHurican:

Central, I think, which means any time now ....
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Latest GFS about 20 miles further west then 06z
Quoting 2636. BobHenson:



Update is coming in the next few minutes--hang tight!

Losing grip...need..update...now....
Quoting 2621. BaltimoreBrian:

In the 11 p.m. discussion last night the forecast 12 hour positions was 21.7°N 74.8°W.

The actual position at 11 a.m. today was 21.8°N 75.2°W.

So Matthew's eye was 0.1°north and 0.4°west of its predicted position.

Solve for positions if Matthew stays 0.4°W of its forecast track.

Solve for position if Matthew moves an additional 0.4°W for each 12 hour period.
Not solving anything, but your data seems to suggest that Matthew is moving a bit faster than expected ....
42 hours:

If you're evacuating with pets and can't find a hotel that accepts pets, find a pet boarding service nearby your hotel. You can take your pet out during the day and bring it to the boarding place at night when you go to your hotel.

Most boarding services will allow you to take your pet out during the day if they know you're in evacuation.

Quoting 2632. dezli:

I keep hitting refresh and still no Dr. Masters update?



I just scrolled back 'til before 2pm but saw no new posts from Dr. Masters. I imagine he and Bob will be needing a little oxygen this morning, to work through all the crazy data and make some plausible sense of it all. I think it was Patrap who posted "G'morning, wunderland" this morning. Seems this has become Wonderland.
Quoting 2596. ProPoly:



NC coast is in the five-day cone for a direct hit. So yes.


????? Direct hit ?????
Quoting 2583. Plaza23:

Surprised that NHC's cone is more NW or NNW, while the current movement based on radar certainly looks WNW. How long does the current movement have to keep up for NHC to change?


IR sat looks NW to me...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

Quoting 2638. BahaHurican:

Thanks for the kind thoughts.... to everyone who has thought and expressed them. I can only say they are deeply appreciated.

I only hope I am in a position to give a report by Friday ..... tomorrow may be .... disruptive .... lol ...

New here Baha, but love your posts and am wishing you all the best!
12z GFS in 2 days out has a landfall in NE Florida, cat3/4
Quoting 2646. depalma13:


Losing grip...need..update...now....
Quoting 2636. BobHenson:



Update is coming in the next few minutes--hang tight!


Thank-you! We understand...!
GFS has a bulls-eye on Jupiter, FL at 42 hours and moves it up the coast at 48 hours.
Quoting 2622. BahaHurican:

Where is that facepalm meme when you need it?


Yeah. I think part of the issue is that people are looking at the satellite imagery and "eyeballing", instead of aircraft recon which pretty much nails it down. Another part of the issue is that a lot of people then take that "eyeballing" and extrapolate to where it's going to hit, which is even less accurate.
2662. ABH3
Quoting 2555. Jacksparrows:

Pasco county mayor just said do not trust the NHC models. The storm is shifting more and more west and we need to prepare for the worst.


Pasco County doesn't have a mayor. I'd love to see a link to the media outlet that said this so I know which one to avoid.
Quoting 2652. Thunderground:

If you're evacuating with pets and can't find a hotel that accepts pets, find a pet boarding service nearby your hotel. You can take your pet out during the day and bring it to the boarding place at night when you go to your hotel.

Most boarding services will allow you to take your pet out during the day if they know you're in evacuation.




Check out this link....http://hotels.petswelcome.com/searchbyrout e/
2664. Drakoen
GFS 12z looks further south with its landfall in Florida as it continues its southwest correction.
Quoting 2638. BahaHurican:

Thanks for the kind thoughts.... to everyone who has thought and expressed them. I can only say they are deeply appreciated.

I only hope I am in a position to give a report by Friday ..... tomorrow may be .... disruptive .... lol ...


Wish we could beam you outta there for a time. Well be here, even if the power goes. Hoping all good things.
2666. hmroe
Quoting 2624. WeatherkidJoe2323:

GFS slightly west in 24 hours vs 6z. May not be a good run for us in Florida


Hr 54 is not good
Slight west shift and possible landfall.
2668. K8eCane
Quoting 2577. win1gamegiantsplease:



I may be joining you soon, though on the opposite end of the cone


What cone? Never heard of such a thing....
Baha, and all the Bahamians on here:
Thoughts are with you, wishing you al the best. Stay safe.
New GFS looks like a landfall in Northern Indian River/Southern Brevard County and moving up the coast.
Quoting 2667. Sfloridacat5:




Cape Canaveral is gonna get it.
2672. hmroe
Quoting 2657. wunderweatherman123:

12z GFS in 2 days out has a landfall in NE Florida, cat3/4


Where do you get the intensity info? I see a 988 pressure.

I found this Link That lists 980 as a CAT 1. Matthew is currently a CAT3 at 964.
Quoting 2672. hmroe:



Where do you get the intensity info? I see a 988 pressure.


Pressure is higher on the models than for real because of resolution. And the GFS also shows a deepening storm as it makes landfall.
The prediction: West Palm Beach landfall as a Cat. 4 and weakening as it moves NNW along the Florida coast. SC won't get the worst. All just my opinion. Before Florida, Nassau gets the eastern eye wall and Andros gets the eye.
Yep. I've been seeing a South East Florida landfall with the timing of the trough out west as its retrograding quickly


Quoting 2664. Drakoen:

GFS 12z looks further south with its landfall in Florida as it continues its southwest correction.
2676. 7544
mathew is heading nw could it stay on this corse hitting so fl at a nw angle rather from east to west and would this be worse or better if it it cam in at that angle thanks
Quoting 2664. Drakoen:

GFS 12z looks further south with its landfall in Florida as it continues its southwest correction.

What we know is models have understimated the strength of the Bermuda High during Matthew's life cycle
2678. hmroe
Quoting 2673. FunnelVortex:



Pressure is higher on the models than for real because of resolution. And the GFS also shows a deepening storm as it makes landfall.

I guess I don't see how that provides scientific evidence of a CAT3/4
2679. hmroe
Quoting 2678. hmroe:


I guess I don't see how that provides scientific evidence of a CAT3/4


If it's just a guess/opinion, that's cool, but it should be noted as such, not as info from the model.
New blog posted for those that might have missed the post.
Quoting 2638. BahaHurican:

Thanks for the kind thoughts.... to everyone who has thought and expressed them. I can only say they are deeply appreciated.

I only hope I am in a position to give a report by Friday ..... tomorrow may be .... disruptive .... lol ...


Will be thinking you about you Baha -- I am mostly a lurker, and enjoy your comments, and appreciate your knowledge. Good luck to you and yours, and keep us posted as you can.
2682. WxLogic
Melbourne Beach is the landfall location as per 12Z GFS:

Quoting 2681. StTeresaNana:



Will be thinking you about you Baha -- I am mostly a lurker, and enjoy your comments, and appreciate your knowledge. Good luck to you and yours, and keep us posted as you can.
Same here BAHA. I love the Bahamas, and will help in the aftermath if possible.


Brief video with that tweet showing the damage.
Weakening flag is now off, and expect the line on the right to start moving upward again.
Quoting 2625. depalma13:

People are evacuating from South Florida and FHP has a bunch of speed traps on I-75 between Wildwood and Gainesville.


Speed traps only work when the traffic can exceed the speed limit :-)
Quoting 2607. washingtonian115:

If Matthew does indeed loop back towards Florida and make a second landfall there I will be completely done with 2016 as a whole.


Unfortunately 2016 will not be done with us.
UCF:

"In anticipation of Hurricane Matthew's impact, UCF main campus classes will end at 3 p.m. and campus will close at 5 p.m. today. The university will remain closed Thursday through Saturday.

The Rosen College of Hospitality Management, Health Sciences at Lake Nona campus and Center for Emerging Media in downtown Orlando follow main campus closure protocols.

UCF regional campus locations will follow the decisions made by their respective host state college. "
Coastal Broward getting its first storm of the storm. Gusty winds and steady rain for about 10 minutes.

It begins...
This new burst of convection on the Northern eye wall is the biggest blowup I have seen since it made landfall in Haiti. Levi says it take approximately 24 hours for a storm to reorganize. Its nearly complete.