WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Matthew Hits Haiti, Their Strongest Hurricane in 52 Years

By: Jeff Masters 1:21 PM GMT on October 04, 2016

Powerful Hurricane Matthew made landfall on the southwestern tip of Haiti near 7 am EDT October 4, 2016 as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Matthew’s extreme rains, large storm surge, and Category 4 winds are likely to be catastrophic for Haiti. The hurricane is the third strongest one ever recorded in the impoverished nation, and their strongest hurricane in 52 years. The only Haitian hurricanes stronger than Matthew were two Category 4 storms with 150 mph winds: Hurricane Cleo of 1964 and Hurricane Flora of 1963. The last major hurricane to make a direct hit in Haiti was Category 3 Hurricane David of 1979, which crossed over the nation from east to west with 115 mph winds.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Matthew as it made landfall over the southwestern tip of Haiti at 7:19 am EDT October 4, 2016.

We don’t have many weather stations in Haiti, so it is difficult to say what the conditions are on the ground. A personal weather station (PWS) on the south coast Haiti at Aquin, about 70 miles east of Matthew’s landfall, recorded a wind gust of 59 mph at 6:50 am EDT Tuesday. A PWS near Port-Au-Prince, Haiti recorded about 1.70” of rain during the 36-hour period ending at 7 am EDT Tuesday. At the Port-Au-Prince airport, top winds on Tuesday as of 8 am EDT were 34 mph, gusting to 52 mph.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft arrived at Matthew’s center near 8 am EDT Tuesday, when the eye was over land. The plane did not fly directly into the center of the eye, since that would have risked penetrating through extreme turbulence over land, but the aircraft was able to measure a central pressure of 944 mb at the edge of the eye. The peak winds measured by their SFMR instrument were 135 mph, so Matthew was definitely a solid Category 4 storm at landfall.

Satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed that the encounter with land had weakened the storm, with the eye much less distinct. Light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots is affecting the storm, and Matthew is over warm ocean waters of 29°C (84°F) and has plenty of moisture to work with--70 - 75% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere, as analyzed by the SHIPS model.


Figure 2. Microwave image of rainfall rates in Hurricane Matthew from the F-16 polar orbiting satellite taken at 5:02 am EDT October 4, 2016. At the time, Matthew was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Rainfall amounts in excess of 1”/hour (orange colors) were occurring along the coasts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Image credit: NRL Tropical Cyclone Page.

Extreme rains near the Haiti/Dominican Republic border
Extreme rains from Matthew are a huge concern for the entire island of Hispaniola, thanks to an unusual area of extra spin and low pressure that has been embedded on the east side of Matthew’s circulation for days. This feature began rotating ashore over southern Haiti and the Dominican Republic early Monday morning, and continues to affect the Dominican Republic this morning. The mountainous terrain of the island has caused tremendous uplift to the thunderstorms moving ashore, resulting in extremely intense rainfall. A personal weather station (PWS) in Cabo Rojo, on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic near the border with Haiti, recorded 22.89” of rain on Monday, including a remarkable 5.33" in the hour from 6 am to 7 am. An additional 3.73” fell on Tuesday as of 8 am EDT, for a storm total of 26.62”. While PWS data is often suspect, these are believable rainfall amounts based on the satellite presentation of Matthew.

Intensity forecast for Matthew
Landfall in Haiti on Tuesday morning and on eastern Cuba on Tuesday evening will disrupt the hurricane, and could cause it to weaken by one Saffir-Simpson category, to a Category 3 storm. However, Matthew is a very large and well-organized storm, and it may take it only a day to recover from its disruption. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. Ocean temperatures will be very warm, between 29 - 30° C (84 - 86°F) and the heat content of the ocean will be high to very high, which argues for intensification of Matthew. Our top three intensity models--the HWRF, LGEM, and SHIPS models--were predicting on Tuesday morning that Matthew would be at Category 3 or 4 strength through Friday.

Track forecast for Matthew
The significant westward shift in computer model guidance on Hurricane Matthew that occurred yesterday is holding, and we now have increased confidence that Matthew will bring severe impacts to the Southeast U.S. coast from South Florida to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Matthew will continue northwards after clearing the southwest tip of Haiti Tuesday morning, then make a second landfall in eastern Cuba at about 6 pm EDT Tuesday. Matthew will turn north-northwest and then northwest on Wednesday, and traverse The Bahamas from southeast to northwest Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. In their 5 am EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest odds of hurricane-force winds in The Bahamas to Great Exuma (57%), New Providence (46%), and Grand Bahama (37%).

Late Thursday morning, Matthew will be very close to the coast of South Florida, and is expected to turn more to the north-northwest, almost parallel to the coast, at that time. The latest 00Z and 06Z Tuesday runs of our top two models for predicting hurricane tracks—the GFS and European models—did not show a Florida landfall, but brought the hurricane so close to Florida—within 50 miles—that most of the coast of Florida from West Palm Beach to Daytona Beach would experience sustained winds of at least 50 mph, if these forecasts verified. Keep in mind that the diameter of NHC’s cone of uncertainty two days into the future is about 100 miles; the cone is about 130 miles across three days into the future. On average, about two-thirds of all hurricanes stay within the cone, but some hurricanes are tougher to predict than others, and Matthew certainly falls into that category. Thus, it would not be a surprise to see Matthew make landfall in Florida. Two of the four members of the Euro “high-probability” cluster--the ensemble forecasts that most closely match the operational run--depicted Matthew making landfall on Florida’s East Coast near West Palm Beach on Thursday. In their 5 am EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest odds of hurricane-force winds in Florida to Ft. Pierce (22%), West Palm Beach (21%), and Cocoa Beach (19%). Update: At 11 am EDT Tuesday, NHC placed the Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line under a Hurricane Watch, with a Tropical Storm Watch in effect southward from south of Deerfield Beach to the Seven Mile Bridge in the Florida Keys, including Lake Okeechobee.


Figure 3. Track forecasts from the four European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line] during the first 72 hours, starting at 00Z Tuesday, October 4, 2016. The red line is a version of the 00Z Tuesday operational model track that has been adjusted and calibrated using a proprietary technique to account for systemic model errors, and shows Matthew barely missing landfall along the Southeast U.S. coast. All four of the ensemble forecasts showed Matthew making landfall in the U.S., in Florida or South Carolina (though one looked like an improbable outlier, with a looping track off the coast.) The high-probability cluster (grey lines) perform better than other ensemble members at forecast times of five days and beyond. Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).

Matthew is expected to turn more to the north and then north-northeast on Friday, which will keep the storm very close to the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. At this time, our top models suggest that the greatest probability for a U.S. landfall by Matthew is in South Carolina on Friday night or North Carolina on Saturday morning. In their 5 am EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC was giving the coast of Georgia, South Carolina, and southern North Carolina 3 - 7% chances of receiving hurricane force winds. However, I expect those probabilities to rise significantly by tomorrow, given the latest model data.

After its closest approach to the coast of North Carolina, we have a number of reliable models predicting that Matthew will continue north-northeast and hit New England on Sunday, with eastern Massachusetts being at greatest risk. Landfall in New England would very likely not be at hurricane strength, due to the potential for Matthew to pass over a lot of land before getting there. The risk to New England is not clear at this point, though, since we have some model guidance predicting a more northeasterly path for Matthew, keeping the center of the storm several hundred miles east off the Northeast U.S. coast.

Links
Meteorologist Steve Gregory is making regular updates on Matthew.
See our post from Monday morning on how Matthew--a rare northward-moving major hurricane in the Caribbean--fits into the hurricane histories of Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba.
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba radar

We’ll be cranking out 2 - 3 updates on Matthew per day throughout the next five days. Our next update, early this afternoon, will also discuss 98L, which is close to tropical storm strength.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. ncstorm
Quoting 1959. win1gamegiantsplease:



Haven't been under the gun in a while, Arthur was forecast extremely well, Irene was predicted to get pretty close I suppose.




You know, the Euro hasn't been consistent with track..Even Carl Parker said today that we were just getting a model consensus and the Euro goes and does this..the Euro operational and the ensembles aren't agreeing with one another..GFS is though..as a resident of NC unless the GFS changes to the Euro at the upcoming 18z run then I'll feel better about Matthew..


I'll be back later..
Quoting 1912. pipelines:

what if 99L develops and follows a similar track to Matthew?
It should follow a westward path. The ridge will be building back by then.
long waits to get sandbags north merritt island is a swamp already.
Pittsburgh, PA here. If the track furthest to the west within this cone takes shape, then Harrisburg - our state capital - will be on Matthew's itinerary.

And we will get a SOAKING here.
Quoting 1979. Icantthinkofausernam:



Glad we got ready today. Boarding up first thing in the morning! Thanks again, guys for being so useful!
Quoting 1985. ThisIsNotSparta:



I was about to comment that, but I agree. The way this storm moves, it's like it's intelligent. Maybe Matt is hurricanes' answer to Einstein...

Then why did it crash into haiti?
2007. Ed22
Quoting 1937. hydrus:

Matts gonna squeeze right through...Un-fricken-believable...


Matthew is gonna brush pass the eastern tip Cuba, by midnight tonight Matthew will be on coast moving off shore heading for the Bahama Islands and Florida.
Quoting 1975. TheAnalogKid:

Amateur tropical cyclone follower/MET here living in Duval County (Jacksonville) on the south end of town about 10-15 miles inland from Ponte Vedra Beach and St. Augustine. We've had so many close calls here over the past ten to fifteen years with much ado about nothing in the end (including Hermine this year) that I worry people are already channeling the boy who cried wolf. Any thoughts from anyone on what the odds are right now of Jacksonville seeing either a direct hit or at least hurricane force winds?


Current wind probabilities from the NHC. 64 (kts) are hurricane force winds. The cumulative probability for 5 days is the last number in parentheses:
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 15(58) X(58)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) X(22)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)

GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 10(48) X(48)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 51(61) 10(71) X(71)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 7(36) X(36)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17)

THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 40(46) 11(57) X(57)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 48(61) 9(70) X(70)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 4(31) X(31)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 52(73) 5(78) 1(79)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 4(45) X(45)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 52(72) 6(78) X(78)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) 5(45) X(45)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) 1(24)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 43(78) 3(81) 1(82)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 36(48) 3(51) X(51)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 2(29) X(29)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) 29(76) 3(79) X(79)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 30(49) 2(51) X(51)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 1(30) X(30)

FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 41(48) 22(70) 2(72) X(72)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 20(41) 2(43) X(43)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 1(24) X(24)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) 18(64) 2(66) X(66)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 16(33) 1(34) X(34)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18)
2009. HCW
[size=medium]63 Hr Forecast Position[/size]
Quoting 1975. TheAnalogKid:

Amateur tropical cyclone follower/MET here living in Duval County (Jacksonville) on the south end of town about 10-15 miles inland from Ponte Vedra Beach and St. Augustine. We've had so many close calls here over the past ten to fifteen years with much ado about nothing in the end (including Hermine this year) that I worry people are already channeling the boy who cried wolf. Any thoughts from anyone on what the odds are right now of Jacksonville seeing either a direct hit or at least hurricane force winds?



[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
2011. wpb
Quoting 1995. Txwxchaser:

The Gov in Fl seems to have trouble putting complete sentences together and doesn't seem to carry himself very well...
he is a complete disgrace


This is alittle old but it has shifted some
2014. Patrap


From the Mrs...


We have room for a family of 4 here,or 4 individuals,pets are welcome too.

We one minute off I-10 here in Nola just by the causeway bridge.

✌🌎🌊🎑🌞

Quoting 2006. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Then why did it crash into haiti?


He's evil maybe
Hi Guys, here's some pictures I found in the local press of the situation in Haiti. I'm from DR, we're ok, but 4 people died here from Matthew.







2018. Loduck
Quoting 2007. Ed22:

Matthew is gonna brush pass the eastern tip Cuba, by midnight tonight Matthew will be on coast moving off shore heading for the Bahama Islands and Florida.
Oh my
Just saw a video a friend posted from Mt. Pleasant, SC - gas lines are unbelievable.
Does the westward trend continue with 18z GFS? That's the question.
2021. CW7859
Quoting 2005. SecretStormNerd:

Glad we got ready today. Boarding up first thing in the morning! Thanks again, guys for being so useful!


They extended the Hurricane watch south to Golden beach so that includes you SSN! I'm only 8 miles from GB so it's on my door step O_o
Quoting 2005. SecretStormNerd:

Glad we got ready today. Boarding up first thing in the morning! Thanks again, guys for being so useful!

Where are you about?
2023. aquak9
@2008- thanks DJ-

Local hospitals will be cancelling elective surgeries soon-
Is not the GFS supposed to be running?
2025. HCW
Quoting 2019. hurricanehanna:

Just saw a video a friend posted from Mt. Pleasant, SC - gas lines are unbelievable.


Pipe line busted in Alabama has caused problems like that for weeks this will only compound the problems
2026. Michfan
Costco Orlando is out of water.
Does the EURO hate the space coast or what? 12z EURO has Matthew whacking it TWICE.
Wow! Amazing Matthew - his eye sliding to miss the Cuban mountains.

Long sand bag lines central FL coast. The store is out of bottled water.
2029. WxLogic
Might appear he's going to miss Cuba from SAT but he's about to landfall in Cuba in a couple hours:



Unless he pulls the impossible... which I guess he has been able to do at times... but this one is just too close to not miss.
Hate to be an Okeechobee caster but given the latest euro model, I worry whether the levies will hold up if it makes land fall up there. (FT Pierce)
(Bumped in to some survivors 30 years ago from the 1928 hurricane) "Deerfield to Miami under 6 feet of water". is what the said to me. Of course I was at a bar so they probably added 2 feet to it.

Roundin' the bend...
Quoting 2014. Patrap:



From the Mrs...


We have room for a family of 4 here,or 4 individuals,pets are welcome too.

We one minute off I-10 here in Nola just by the causeway bridge.

✌🌎🌊🎑🌞



Oh my Pat!! That made my day!!! You guys are so awesome! God bless :)
Quoting 2014. Patrap:



From the Mrs...


We have room for a family of 4 here,or 4 individuals,pets are welcome too.

We one minute off I-10 here in Nola just by the causeway bridge.

✌🌎🌊🎑🌞



That's first class right dere!
Quoting 2026. Michfan:

Costco Orlando is out of water.


Winter Park, Altamonte or both?
Quoting 2020. jordan1tylerr:

Does the westward trend continue with 18z GFS? That's the question.


That's the imminent question, especially for Florida. Further down the road, most people here in NC (and probably SC, too) are wondering if the "loop" was just one weird run, or if it becomes a trend....
Quoting 1999. weathermanwannabe:

If this current track holds, he is riding the coast causing coastal destruction all the way up the US Coast and particularly with the hurricane force bands swinging into the coast from the NE; if the track shifts any more to the West tomorrow.................Doom for someone.


Yes. And it really doesn't matter if he follows the Euro or the GFS. All areas in the cone should be in full fledged prep mode. SC coastal evacs start tomorrow. Mandatory.

I expect that once he clears Cuba, we are going to see him develop a very large eye. May help keep the winds to Cat 2, but it could be a very large windfield. This is mostly just my speculation. It is also possible that he redevelops to a Cat 4. Listen to your local wx offices, the NHC, and local mets. Make your decisions based on the worst case scenario. By time a "worst case" is "certain" for your area; it will likely be too late to react. Be proactive folks. Too many here in SC don't quite understand how significant of an event this could turn out to be. They are missing that the margins of error are very narrow. Many don't seem to understand that this isn't "like all the others".

I'll be checking in, but I am in full prep mode, as most of the SE coast should be, check in later.

There are some very useful tracking links on this page if some may be wondering where many of the images posted in this blog come from.
2037. Patrap
Action...calm, plan, stay informed

Avoid rumor

Listen to and for your local action statements.

🎑🌊🌎🌅




Has a storm like this ever crossed into the Gulf of Mexico and run up the West Coast to make landfall around the panhandle?
Gotta be one of the smartest storms in awhile. Its gonna almost miss the country of Cuba with the eye gonna miss the brunt of Cuba. Unbelievable!
Quoting 1986. MiamiHurricanes09:

ECMWF has been the best performing model thus far? Is that true?

Definitely a startling path depicted on the 12z. I was hoping it would stay far enough offshore for me to be able to go to class on Thursday lol.


lies... :P
this is going too bomb in too cat 5 in the Bahamas
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I just checked availability of hand-crank radios/chargers on Amazon. They have a number in stock, but not all have 1-day delivery...most all have 2-day. If you are shut in or disabled and need one, order now.
I guess I'm going to start the yard cleaning process and pack up the patio stuff. Broward Mayor or somebody important said if residents have shutters we should put them up, according to local news, but I will wait till tomorrow to do that (accordions are easy) but yeah it's time to protect those precious potted plants.
I am being told Costco WBP also appears to be out of water.
Taz, this is indeed a distinct possibility unfortunately. The NHC & TWC has stated that a category 5 is not off the table once again with Matthew. Scary stuff...
Quoting 1988. thetwilightzone:

forecast winds are still way too low from 36hrs too 72hrs out there a vary good ch this can re bomb to a cat 5 in the with a vary low wind shear favorable for RI FL need too be ready for a lot stronger storm then what the NHC is forecasting
Quoting 2036. StormJunkie:



Yes. And it really doesn't matter if he follows the Euro or the GFS. All areas in the cone should be in full fledged prep mode. SC coastal evacs start tomorrow. Mandatory.

I expect that once he clears Cuba, we are going to see him develop a very large eye. May help keep the winds to Cat 2, but it could be a very large windfield. This is mostly just my speculation. It is also possible that he redevelops to a Cat 4. Listen to your local wx offices, the NHC, and local mets. Make your decisions based on the worst case scenario. By time a "worst case" is "certain" for your area; it will likely be too late to react. Be proactive folks. Too many here in SC don't quite understand how significant of an event this could turn out to be. They are missing that the margins of error are very narrow. Many don't seem to understand that this isn't "like all the others".

I'll be checking in, but I am in full prep mode, as most of the SE coast should be, check in later.

There are some very useful tracking links on this page if some may be wondering where many of the images posted in this blog come from.


The CDO covers almost 3 degrees of longitude now. Let that sink in for a minute. This is going to be a very large hurricane..
Quoting 2017. CaribWind:

Hi Guys, here's some pictures I found in the local press of the situation in Haiti. I'm from DR, we're ok, but 4 people died here from Matthew.










Thanks for the images! Not good at all :( Still lots of heavy rain expected over the next 12 hours or so too.
Quoting 2022. Guinness2013:


Where are you about?

Central Palm Beach County. It is just too close and shifting SW. Better safe than sorry.
Where do you find this?

Quoting 2009. HCW:

[size=medium]63 Hr Forecast Position[/size]

Goes without saying that "now" is the time for all US coastal residents from South Florida to Virginia to begin filling up your gas tanks, getting extra money from the ATM (if you have any), and getting the rest of your prep items in place to avoid the last minute crush which will probably start in earnest tomorrow morning. That is in addition to evacuation prep and securing your coastal properties before leaving once the orders are issued for your particular location if you live on the coast........................With a storm this close to the coast, any jog to the West if the current track holds, will result in hurricane force winds coming and this ain't Cat 1 Hermine..................................
Quoting 2017. CaribWind:

Hi Guys, here's some pictures I found in the local press of the situation in Haiti. I'm from DR, we're ok, but 4 people died here from Matthew.











God...my heart and soul weeps for all who will be affected. Prayers.
Quoting 2040. chrisdscane:



lies... :P
Lmao I have a midterm. :/ Don't want to deal with all of the rescheduling. Would rather get things done and then Matthew can do whatever he pleases at night lol.
2054. aquak9
Lake okeechobee, south side is crappy. I mean the levees. They are in bad shape.
Last year they had some evac drills, they used school buses.

That's where th wind and water will be piling up, the south side and the SW side of the lake.

Could be bad.
Quoting 1932. HaoleboySurfEC:

Thanks, didn't see the press conference. I'm going off co-worker info. Evacs. effective tomorrow. Got it. That makes a little more sense.

Still question closing schools this far inland 4 days in advance of the event.




My son-in-law works at a school in the Midlands, and the explanation is that some of them are going to be used as evac shelters.
Recon is up, by the time they get to Matthew he should be done with Cuba. Models running as well.
If YOU live along the East coast of Florida, attached is some very helpful information.
Link
It provides links for each county for EVACUATION ROUTES, OPEN SHELTERS, EMERGENCY CONTACT INFO, etc...
It also provides a link to storm surge information for particular counties.

Also attached is another link: Link It provides information for the following counties in Florida: Brevard | Flagler | Lake | Marion | Orange | Osceola | Seminole | Sumter | Volusia
Open Shelters, Evacuation Routes, Emergency Contact Info, etc... .
Good luck with your choices. Take this one seriously, folks. If you DON'T have to stay, then please consider evacuating.
Quoting 2049. SecretStormNerd:


Central Palm Beach County. It is just too close and shifting SW. Better safe than sorry.


My friend just bought a house in Parkland, but is trapped in Turks and Caicos.. Wondering if I should drive up from Miami and board. I would probably be better off doing it in the dark than in the heat so im going to wait untill the 0200 advisory I think.

I think that's a bit south of you and inland so Im thinking it unnecessary rn. *bites nails
Just came back from Publix/Palm Springs. A lot of people and a waiting line for shopping carts. Picked up most of what I needed, sans D batteries and Spagettios. My main concern is power outages. Between Frances & Jeanne in '04, had no power for 22 days. I hope our grid has gotten more stable during the last 12 years.
If Matthew stays just off shore of Florida, does anyone have any estimate of potential storm surge along the Florida coast? Assuming he remains a category 4, or weakens to a category 3, from just the circulation of the storm will water be piled up along the coast as he moves north? I appreciate that the effect of this additional elevation of ocean water will be dependent on whether Matthew passes your area during low tide, or high tide, but an estimate of how much water might be piled up would be good for planning purposes. My first floor elevation is 7 feet above mean high tide. Thanks.
Quoting 2011. wpb:

he is a complete disgrace


Complete!!!!
Link

Example of Maximum Envelope of Wind (Meow) from NHC. Cat 3>storm motion of 8kts.

Same scenario with motion of 16kts, note the difference. Discount a direct hit naturally but here in Jacksonville, I won't be taking any chances.
Good afternoon! Incredible the way this hurricane has navigated the pass. Almost as if he has eyes. Creepy. Prayers for all in this clever guy's path. One of my little evacuation tricks is to bag all your frozen food in garbage bag. If you leave and the power is out for a long time than no stinky dripping mess. Just throw the bag out. Same for the fridge. Rotton smelly fridge is no fun. Ruined many a fridge in Katrina.
2065. barbamz
BTW, NEW BLOG!
2066. Michfan
Quoting 2034. Naga5000:



Winter Park, Altamonte or both?


Winter park.
Quoting 2014. Patrap:



From the Mrs...


We have room for a family of 4 here,or 4 individuals,pets are welcome too.

We one minute off I-10 here in Nola just by the causeway bridge.

✌🌎🌊🎑🌞




That's Metry, Brah.
Well this is my first entry after years of "lurking". Time to head out soon, glad I made reservations inland yesterday and filled up this morning. No more than 10 minutes after Nikki's announcement there was a run on all gas stations. After 33 years here on Hilton Head Island, we've been extremely lucky but I fear our luck might've run out. Be safe!
Matthew is also the deepest ever striking Haïti since 1851
Quoting 2067. NOLALawyer:



That's Metry, Brah.

Patrap!!
You two are awesome people!! Watching from Central NC.
Quoting 1989. daddyjames:



And all people focus on is the last part. Should not be making comments like that.
(Tornado watch, dj. Dryline setup. 30% chance of EF2-plus; 70% for severe hail. Maybe you already know :))
Trying to post a pic but cant get it to work think its a format issue not sure....anyways it was showing the 5 day development chances of yet another system taking a similar track to Matthew through the eastern Caribbean. 10% chance of development in 2days 20% in 5 days
Quoting 1951. JamesSA:



It is very sensible IMO. A lot of people will need every bit of that time, and shutting down the schools now removes an obstacle that might prevent them from doing what is needed now, instead of Thursday or Friday after school.

During disasters in Florida, schools are used as shelters. Closing schools gives the Red Cross and Salvation Army time to get the shelters ready.
NEW BLOG!!!! It easily gets lost when there are so many comments per minute! https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=3463#commenttop
not a common scenario for a storm to be tracking this way to fla. as Ricki13th pointed out, Levi was afraid of this very scenario in his update last nite, with the ridge coming out further west, thus pushing matthew west. here is the link queued to where he shows this on the gfs
https://youtu.be/sMpSwY5uNsM?t=321
How much rain is this going to put into Lake Okeechobee?

Lake O's dike system isn't up to snuff. It's like New Orleans. See today's Sun Sentinel newspaper report. They are dumping water out to sea right now, in an attempt to lower it. It's overfilled, dike failure risk if there is one or two feet of water rise into the lake.

Remember the Lake Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928. "Early on September 17, the storm made landfall near West Palm Beach, Florida with winds of 145 mph (233 km/h). In the city, more than 1,711 homes were destroyed. Elsewhere in the county, impact was severest around Lake Okeechobee. The storm surge caused water to pour out of the southern edge of the lake, flooding hundreds of square miles as high as 20 feet (6.1 m) above ground. Numerous houses and buildings were swept away in the cities of Belle Glade, Canal Point, Chosen, Pahokee, and South Bay. At least 2,500 people drowned, while damage was estimated at $25 million."
This just in! ... Hurricane Matthew becomes "a Major" Hillary Clinton/LGBT community supporter! news at 6 LOL
My in laws live in sun city in bluffton sc, they have to leave, Im in Tampa so I'm not expecting too much but I do feel for everyone on the east coast this is no joke, be safe everyone. In laws are about 12 miles inland from Hilton Head, I'm sure the house will be fine but this is history in the making with this one.
The 18Z GFDL model is now in, and it shows a landfall scenario in Central Florida similar to Hurricane Francis in 2004. So far both 18z GFS and GFDL are now favoring a possible Florida landfall more and more.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2 016100418-matthew14l&field=Sea Level Pressure&hour =Animation
Quoting 2054. aquak9:

Lake okeechobee, south side is crappy. I mean the levees. They are in bad shape.
Last year they had some evac drills, they used school buses.

That's where th wind and water will be piling up, the south side and the SW side of the lake.

Could be bad.
When they've got a watch that includes the lake, it's serious. Those levees were built after the Florida hurricanes in the 20s and 30s.
2083. vis0

Quoting 263. SPShaw:

The WU team deserves high praise for whatever switch they made to the blog yesterday! Today was the first time I noticed that one of my comments appeared immediately after posting. Thank you!
It's a great privilege being here after lurking for many years. Great group of talented and intelligent folk here.
notice "it" was being tested a ~week ago, good work hope the chewing gum holds...  : - P