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Matthew Dumping Extreme Rains; Threat to Southeast U.S. Growing

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 6:14 PM GMT on October 03, 2016

Very dangerous Hurricane Matthew is maintaining Category 4 strength as it heads northwards at 6 mph, and is already dumping potentially catastrophic rains on Haiti and the Dominican Republic. An unusual area of extra spin and low pressure that has been embedded on the east side of Matthew’s circulation for days is generating intense rains in excess of one inch per hour, as seen on microwave imagery (Figure 1.) A portion of this feature rotated ashore over southern Haiti and the Dominican Republic early Monday morning, and the mountainous terrain of this region undoubtedly caused additional uplift that resulted in rainfall rates much higher than one inch per hour. A personal weather station in Cabo Rojo, on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic near the border with Haiti, recorded 20.05” of rain in eleven hours between 3 am and 2 pm on Monday, including a remarkable 5.33" in the hour from 6 am to 7 am. While PWS data is often suspect, these are believable rainfall amounts based on the satellite presentation of Matthew. The outer spiral bands of Matthew are also affecting Jamaica, as seen on Jamaican radar (see long loop saved by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School.)


Figure 1. Microwave image of rainfall rates in Hurricane Matthew from the F-16 polar orbiting satellite taken at 5:16 am EDT October 3, 2016. At the time, Matthew was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Rainfall amounts in excess of 1”/hour (orange colors) were occurring along the coasts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. This intense area of rainfall moved ashore a few hours later, bringing 5.33” of rain in one hour to Cabo Rojo. Image credit: NRL Tropical Cyclone Page.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft made four passes through the eye of Matthew on Monday morning and early Monday afternoon, and found surface winds as high as 140 mph. The central pressure stayed in the 940 - 941 mb range during all the passes, so it does not appear that Matthew is undergoing intensification. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed that Matthew’s eye was clearing out and becoming more distinct, and the hurricane’s cloud pattern was becoming more symmetric--signs the storm may be about to intensify, though. Light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots is affecting the storm, and Matthew is over warm ocean waters of 29°C (84°F) and has plenty of moisture to work with: 70 - 75% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere, as analyzed by the SHIPS model.

Matthew passed over NOAA buoy 42058 early Monday morning, and top winds during passage of the weaker portion of the eyewall were 74 mph, gusting to 92 mph. Seas were 34 feet, and the buoy recorded a minimum pressure of 943 mb. The wind measurement height on the buoy was 5 meters, so an upwards correction of about 10 mph is needed to adjust these numbers to the standard 10-meter observing height for winds.


Figure 2. The GOES East satellite captured this image of Hurricane Matthew, located about 220 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, at 9:15 am EDT on October 3, 2016.  Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Intensity forecast for Matthew
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will be very warm, between 29 - 30° C (84 - 86°F) and the heat content of the ocean will be high to very high, which argues for intensification of Matthew. At any time, though, Matthew could undergo an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), where the inner eyewall collapses and is replaced by a larger-diameter eye, with a new eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. This process usually causes a weakening to the storm’s top winds for a day or so. The down side of an ERC is that is spreads out the storm’s hurricane-force winds over a wider area, resulting in severe impacts over a wider area. Our top three intensity models--the HWRF, LGEM, and SHIPS models--were predicting on Monday morning that Matthew would be at Category 3 or 4 strength for the next four days. The SHIPS model gave Matthew an 11% chance of rapid intensification of 30 mph or more by Tuesday morning. Landfall in eastern Cuba/northwest Haiti on Tuesday could act to disrupt the hurricane and destroy its inner core, which might knock Matthew down to Category 2 strength for several days. However, Matthew will probably re-intensify by at least 20 mph in the two days after its landfall in Cuba/Haiti.

Three-day track forecast for Matthew
Matthew will make landfall or pass very close to the southwest tip of Haiti early Tuesday morning, then make a second landfall in eastern Cuba on Tuesday afternoon. Matthew will then traverse The Bahamas from southeast to northwest Tuesday evening through Thursday morning. In their 11 am EDT Monday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave highest odds of hurricane-force winds to Les Cayes in southwest Haiti (35%) and to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba (41%). Lower odds were given to Kingston, Jamaica (0%)  and Port-Au-Prince, Haiti (2%). In The Bahamas, hurricane-force wind odds of 39% were given to Great Exuma, 24% to New Providence, and 35% to San Salvador. See our post from earlier Monday morning for more on how Matthew--a rare northward-moving major hurricane in the Caribbean--fits into the hurricane histories of Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba.

98L: probably no steering influence on Matthew
An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave that (designated Invest 98L by NHC on Sunday morning) is over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles north-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles. Over 50% of the members of the 00Z Monday European ensemble forecasts predicted that this system would develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm as it heads west-northwest to northwest at 10 - 15 mph; the GFS model showed virtually no development. In their 2 pm EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50%. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed that 98L had a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that had acquired a respectable amount of spin. High wind shear of 30 knots was affecting 98L, and the 12Z Monday SHIPS model forecast predicted wind shear would rise even higher by Tuesday--in excess of 45 knots. This level of shear will likely keep any development of 98L rather limited, and we doubt 98L will be able to exert a significant steering influence on Matthew.


Figure 3. Track forecasts from the four European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line] during the first 72 hours, starting at 00Z Monday, October 3, 2016. The red line is a version of the 00Z Monday operational model track that has been adjusted and calibrated using a proprietary technique to account for systemic model errors. Four out of five of these forecasts showed Matthew making a double landfall in the U.S.: first in Florida, then farther north. The high-probability cluster (grey lines) perform better than other ensemble members at forecast times of five days and beyond. Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).

Beyond The Bahamas: landfall threat for Southeast U.S. increasing
A significant westward shift in computer model guidance on Hurricane Matthew has occurred, and this could have big implications for the hurricane’s potential impact on the U.S. East Coast. The main reason appears to be stronger ridging south of 98L and north of Matthew than earlier predicted, which may help to nudge Matthew far enough west for major impacts along the Southeast U.S. coast. Last night’s 50 ensemble runs from the 00Z Monday European model included a number of tracks making landfall along the U.S. East Coast. Most concerning is that, for the first time in Matthew’s life, all four members of the Euro “high-probability” cluster--the members that most closely match the operational run--depict Matthew making landfall on Florida’s East Coast. (The 12Z Monday run of the NAM model also depicts the stronger ridge and suggests a Florida landfall, but the NAM is not designed to handle tropical cyclones and should be avoided for hurricane prediction, unless perhaps you’re Bart Simpson.)

Lending further credence to the westward shift are the latest 12Z Monday operational runs of our other two top track models, the GFS and UKMET. The 12Z UKMET brings Matthew into the East Coast of Florida, while the GFS brings Matthew considerably closer to the Florida coast than earlier runs, with a projected landfall in northern South Carolina this weekend (see Figure 4 below) and a second landfall on Cape Cod less than 36 hours later. The several previous operational GFS runs had suggested that a Southeast landfall would be limited to the NC Outer Banks at most. Likewise, the 12Z Monday GFS ensembles (GEFS) now include a majority of runs making landfall somewhere between Florida and North Carolina, a major shift west from previous GFS ensembles. In addition, the 12Z Monday run of the HWRF model is tracking about 1 degree (roughly 60 miles) west of its previous two runs, now showing a potential landfall in eastern North Carolina by late Friday.


Figure 4. Comparison of GFS operational model output from (left) 06Z Monday and (right) 12Z Monday. Black lines denote surface air pressure; colors denote the height of the 500-millibar surface, roughly the midpoint of the atmosphere, in tens of meters. The more recent guidance (right) shows a stronger ridge (deeper orange colors) to the east and north of Matthew, keeping it further to the west as it moves northward. Long-range models such as the GFS are much less skillful at projecting hurricane intensities than hurricane tracks. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com

In our next update this evening, we’ll look at results from the 12Z Euro and GFS ensemble runs and the 12Z Euro operational run. For now, it’s important to keep in mind that the uncertainty “cones” produced by NHC are not tailored specifically for a given hurricane: they are based on the average error in NHC forecasts over the preceding five years. On average, about two-thirds of all hurricanes stay within the cone, but some hurricanes are tougher to predict than others. Given the wide range of model guidance on Matthew, and the recent westward shift, the actual uncertainty for this hurricane may be wider than the 120-hour cone location implies. In any event, there is enough model support for various possibilities that people all the way from Florida to Maine should continue to take seriously the possibility of impacts from Matthew. As always, the NHC is the place to turn for official 5-day forecasts, including intensity and track guidance and cones of uncertainty.


Figure 5. WU depiction of official NHC hurricane forecast through 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Saturday, October 8.

Category 5 Super Typhoon Chaba threatening Japan, South Korea
Previously a Category 5 itself, Matthew has a Category 5 cousin over the Northwest Pacific today: Super Typhoon Chaba, which passed just south of Okinawa early Monday. Chaba intensified into a 165 mph Category 5 storm with a central pressure of 905 mb on Monday morning, becoming Earth’s sixth Category 5 storm of the year. The planet averages about 4 - 5 Cat 5’s per year, so we are above average for the third year in a row. Both 2015 and 2014 had nine Category 5 storms, tied for the second most on record (the record was twelve, set in 1997.)


Figure 6. Super Typhoon Chaba passing just south of Okinawa at 1:45 am EDT October 3, 2016. At the time, Chaba was a Category 5 storm with 165 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Chaba’s northern eyewall passed very close to Kumejima, on an island just west of Okinawa. Kumejima reported sustained winds of 87 mph (10-minute average) with a pressure that bottomed out at 960 mb at 1 am local time Monday. According to Jon Erdman of weather.com, Chaba was the third Category 5 super typhoon to track within 65 nautical miles of Kumejima Island, in records dating to the 1960s, and will be the strongest on record there. Chaba is expected to recurve to the north and northeast, passing very close to South Korea and Japan as a Category 3 storm Tuesday afternoon (early Wednesday morning, Japan time.)

Links
Meteorologist Steve Gregory is making regular updates on Matthew.
CIMMS Satellite Blog has an interesting post on airglow gravity waves observed in Hurricane Matthew during its rapid intensification phase.
Jamaican radar
Long Jamaica radar loop saved by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School.)

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
...to boldly go where no wunderblog has gone befo'...


✌🌊🌎🌅🎑🌜



🌜🎑🌅🌎🌊✌dah,dah,dahhhhhhh....
1002. beell
Gonzo Mission 17 -waiting on last-minute clearance snafu for an overflight of Haiti this afternoon?



Quoting 933. MontanaZephyr:



I haven't had a problem in a long long time. I still run windows 7. I think that that just might be it. fair amount of press lately on how 10 messes with all sorts of things.


As it is with me now ):
1004. IDTH
I know we have a massive Hurricane on our hands but this is unbelievable just how often we've seen the Nino 3.4 area shift throughout the season.





Just a unpredictable Hurricane Season it has been and it continues with Matthew.
1005. Michfan
Quoting 989. JeffMasters:

So the blog slowness this time around was due to network latencies between our San Francisco data center and the Amazon Web Service (AWS) cloud. We shifted resources so that more serving is being done directly from our datacenter rather than from the cloud, and this relieved the bottleneck. With unprecedented loads coming this week on our servers, expect to see more growing pains as we figure out how to handle loads 3x or more beyond where we've gone before.

Jeff Masters


If i remember correctly AWS allows you to scale up more power as your load increases dynamically. Its the same service that Netflix uses to deliver a lot of its content.
Quoting 996. Dakster:

Anyone have a beat on Cantore? If he shows up at Miami Beach, we know where Matthew is going.

He tweets @JimCantore
Latest GFS showing a skirt up the coast still. Question - Does this blog normally discredit the HWRF or is that a different model?

Quoting 992. Hurricanes101:

18Z HWRF is sticking to its guns on the further East solution
Quoting 998. QueensWreath:



That looks disrupted not shrinking. Looks like classic dry air being sucked in. From where I do not know. But Mat has a large structure to pull in from a vast area. Look at the quick clear slot to Mats NE just before disruption.

Not dry air, likely the inner eye collapsing and being replaced.
Quoting 969. ecflweatherfan:



Last couple of frames looks like Matthew is wobbling back to almost due N. Then again looks can be deceiving.

I see a wobble to the west? Probably because of that huge blow up of convection.
Quoting 962. flstorm:

Thanks Michfan! I have been following this blog for years. I remember back in the days of Storm W and so on. This has always been an informative way to get the info on Weather. Meteorology has always been a passion of mine, and in times when were looking at Matthew and seeing the beast he's turned into it is nice to stay informed.

Storm W was always afoot with the latest info.
Quoting 988. StormJunkie:



The mountains of the Windward passage will knock him down a good bit. Most of those models show him Cat 3-4 out to a presumable landfall or extra tropical conversion. Seems like a pretty decent forecast considering how difficult intensity is.


Most of those models are interpolated global models which NHC does not use for intensity forecasts.

MATTHEW - Seven Day Loop - v7.2

UPDATED CONTENT - October 3, 2016 - as of 5:00 PM EDT
1013. Michfan
Quoting 1007. ryanstacos88:

Latest GFS showing a skirt up the coast still. Question - Does this blog normally discredit the HWRF or is that a different model?




It is not used for track, but normally intensity.
1014. Patrap
1015. Patrap
1016. sfranz
Quoting 974. IDTH:


I think I may have gotten to him.

EDIT: him meaning my friend, who might be convinced by Sudduth.


Best of luck. Your friend is lucky he has someone who cares.

Quoting 983. IDTH:


That blowup on the west side is indicative of a storm that is tapping into really hot waters.


My thought is that it is a massive outflow Collapsing storms from. Mat just took a quick BIG gulp of dry air.
Quoting 932. IDTH:


This is definitely useful but I'm having trouble finding one that explains it. Could someone assist me?

IKE house didn't even convince him.


You might refer him to this explanation of storm surge. To be honest, I didn't have a complete understanding until I read it:
https://www.wunderground.com/prepare/storm-surge
Important inquiry

My friend is in Disney for the Fall and flies home to land in Philadelphia tomorrow. His plane from Philadelphia back to Orlando leaves at 8:30 Thursday night and the flight is a little over two hours. Should he bother coming home? Can he make it in time? He says Disney will fire him if he gets stuck up here and misses work.
1020. Dakster
Quoting 1010. FloorManBroward:


Storm W was always afoot with the latest info.


I do miss the Master Chief....
Quoting 967. eljefe711:



If you're religious, or even if you aren't, it would be prudent to say a prayers for those folks. The death and destruction that's about to take place is extremely sad.


As one owho doesn't beleive, prayers do nothing but I do wish the best outcome for all in the path.
1022. Wowiii
Is the eye starting to fade?
he has or had a page still...and was putting out forecasts..

Quoting 1010. FloorManBroward:


Storm W was always afoot with the latest info.
Quoting 965. Sharkicane:

As a complete aside, if Matthew catches FEMA with their pants down like Katrina did, then Matthew could become the "October surprise" for the federal election.


Trust me, FEMA is all over this, and is better run and prepared then "Heckuva Job Brownie" ever dreamed of. You can bet midnight oil is being burned to make sure they can respond quickly and effectively.
Dare I say it, looks like it's gonna steer itself through the Windward Passage intact?
Quoting 1017. QueensWreath:



My thought is that it is a massive outflow Collapsing storms from. Mat just took a quick BIG gulp of dry air.

No its going through an ERC and expanding its windfield there's very little if any dry air near Matthew's core
1027. pingon
Quoting 1010. FloorManBroward:


Storm W was always afoot with the latest info.
hehehe, you're a bad man floor man.
1028. Grothar
Quoting 1007. ryanstacos88:

Latest GFS showing a skirt up the coast still. Question - Does this blog normally discredit the HWRF or is that a different model?




We normally discredit everything. Then when the models switch, we say, "See, I told you so". You'll get used to it.
Recon not far off now - Link

Could be interesting as it appears Matthew has completed or nearly completed an EWRC and has organised a little more since last recon.
1030. IKE
Quoting 986. luvtogolf:



And just yesterday you were on here spouting great news for those on the east coast that the GFS missed the US. Your tone has changed since the threat is shifty dramatically west.

And whose tone wouldn't shift? And it's shifted, not shifty.
1031. GenTen
Quoting 975. JohnCaesar:



Are people actually considering evacuating Miami for this storm? Miami will not be taking a direct impact imo


Evacs on the east coast of Florida are not about direct hits. Its about EMS.

Brevard county, better known as the Space Coast issues mandatory evacs if the expected conditions hit I believe 55mph sustained or 5 foot tide rise in the ICW because EMS can not cross the bridges to the islands at that wind speed. Once they have to shut down EMS then it becomes mandatory. If they can't get to you, you have to leave. The only operating hospital on the islands is Cape Canaveral Hospital and you still have to cross a low rise bridge which could easily be under water with a 5 foot rise in tide. All other hospitals are on the main land.
1032. ohzone
Finally, the government cautions the east coast. Do you get it?

Quoting 1010. FloorManBroward:


Storm W was always afoot with the latest info.

Very long time lurker here.

Whatever happened to Storm W? 
That's what I thought. Thanks.

Quoting 1013. Michfan:



It is not used for track, but normally intensity.
Is it up?
Quoting 1019. wxgeek723:

Important inquiry

My friend is in Disney for the Fall and flies home to land in Philadelphia tomorrow. His plane from Philadelphia back to Orlando leaves at 8:30 Thursday night and the flight is a little over two hours. Should he bother coming home? Can he make it in time? He says Disney will fire him if he gets stuck up here and misses work.


If the weather is bad enough, even Disney will close. Depending on the proximity to the coast, winds could be strong enough to where airlines could cancel flights. I mean according to the forecast position, the weather may be pretty rough around that time.
Long story that unfolded right here on the blog...
Quoting 1033. Bardeyes:



Very long time lurker here.

Whatever happened to Storm W? 

Quoting 1033. Bardeyes:



Very long time lurker here.

Whatever happened to Storm W? 


He tripped on someone's toes and had to leave
1039. IKE
Quoting 1033. Bardeyes:



Very long time lurker here.

Whatever happened to Storm W?


He was given the foot out the door. Then again maybe Matthew is pumping the ridge.
Is there any Recon going into/near the eye? Would so love to know what pressure and windspeed are now, before land interactions start to disrupt things.

But sheesh, if the HWRF is right about intensity, a place like Les Cayes in Haiti (pop. around 80,000) could almost be wiped off the map... from the wind, the surge, and then the deluge in the mountains just to their north. :-(

Jo
1041. beell
Quoting 1007. ryanstacos88:

Latest GFS showing a skirt up the coast still. Question - Does this blog normally discredit the HWRF or is that a different model?




don't know about the HWRF but i got the skirt up the coast covered.
Funny you ask! I just googled his name and here he is!
Storm W

Quoting 1033. Bardeyes:



Very long time lurker here.

Whatever happened to Storm W? 

Quoting 1008. hurricanehunter27:


Not dry air, likely the inner eye collapsing and being replaced.


Or a combination. Such a reform / collapse would be an opportunity to ingest that slot of dry air. (its very noticeable in sat loop). In either case it would allow for a new eyewall formation.
1044. GenTen
Quoting 1019. wxgeek723:

Important inquiry

My friend is in Disney for the Fall and flies home to land in Philadelphia tomorrow. His plane from Philadelphia back to Orlando leaves at 8:30 Thursday night and the flight is a little over two hours. Should he bother coming home? Can he make it in time? He says Disney will fire him if he gets stuck up here and misses work.


If OIA shuts down inbound flights before his is scheduled then there are laws that kick in to protect his job.

But, he should be planing to return as scheduled and stay updated on the storm because again. Its 5 days out and a lot can change. We could wind up with a forecast completely missing the east coast tomorrow.
1045. hmroe
Quoting 1019. wxgeek723:

Important inquiry

My friend is in Disney for the Fall and flies home to land in Philadelphia tomorrow. His plane from Philadelphia back to Orlando leaves at 8:30 Thursday night and the flight is a little over two hours. Should he bother coming home? Can he make it in time? He says Disney will fire him if he gets stuck up here and misses work.

I would think he'd be fine. Friday is another story...
18z HWRF is further W than 12z.

1047. Dakster
Quoting 1035. PedleyCA:

Is it up?


Talking about StormW?
Microwave pass from about 45 mins ago:



Looks like the EWRC is complete with a very intense eye wall...All Matthew has to do is clear it out.
Pressures could be in the low to mid 930s when recon gets in. Just by the increasing outflow and striations on the outer edges of the convection you can tell it is getting stronger
StormW sent me a E-mail as to why he had to leave.In order to avoid getting banned I will not go into detail but he does have his own blog you can follow.
Quoting 997. wilburo33:

I too remember Storm W, he really knew weather and I looked forward to his forecasts.
And here he is...
https://www.wunderground.com/wximage/StormW/34Link






his forecasts were just longwinded agreements with the NHC but whatevs...
Quoting 1028. Grothar:



We normally discredit everything. Then when the models switch, we say, "See, I told you so". You'll get used to it.


Anybody else feeling downright queasy? I am, and I'm in central Texas.
Quoting 1048. Envoirment:

Microwave pass from about 45 mins ago:



Looks like the EWRC is complete with a very intense eye wall...All Matthew has to do it clear it out.



looks this this recon may find this storm never or at cat 5 storm once they hit the center
How about we not talk about StormW...

Quoting 1042. wilburo33:

Funny you ask! I just googled his name and here he is!
Storm W


Thanks--bookmarked.  I always found his commentary very interesting. 
1056. IDTH
Quoting 1017. QueensWreath:



My thought is that it is a massive outflow Collapsing storms from. Mat just took a quick BIG gulp of dry air.

Uhm, no

Quoting 988. StormJunkie:



The mountains of the Windward passage will knock him down a good bit. Most of those models show him Cat 3-4 out to a presumable landfall or extra tropical conversion. Seems like a pretty decent forecast considering how difficult intensity is.

It shows Matthew as a cat1 in 5 days I highly doubt that'll occur as conditions will be very favorable in the Bahamas.
Quoting 1010. FloorManBroward:


Storm W was always afoot with the latest info.



ACK!
WOW !
My mind had not set foot in StormW territory for quite some time. I truly enjoyed him and his input. He had a large understanding.
1059. pingon
Quoting 1050. washingtonian115:

StormW sent me a E-mail as to why he had to leave.In order to avoid getting banned I will not go into detail but he does have his own blog you can follow.
Did he ask your shoe size?
Quoting 1033. Bardeyes:



Very long time lurker here.

Whatever happened to Storm W? 



This....
1061. nash36
I posted this earlier, but who knows if it ever made it;

Should the 18z come to fruition, there will need to be a contra flow on I-26 for evacuation in Charleston.
Quoting 1031. GenTen:



Evacs on the east coast of Florida are not about direct hits. Its about EMS.

Brevard county, better known as the Space Coast issues mandatory evacs if the expected conditions hit I believe 55mph sustained or 5 foot tide rise in the ICW because EMS can not cross the bridges to the islands at that wind speed. Once they have to shut down EMS then it becomes mandatory. If they can't get to you, you have to leave. The only operating hospital on the islands is Cape Canaveral Hospital and you still have to cross a low rise bridge which could easily be under water with a 5 foot rise in tide. All other hospitals are on the main land.


If they are expecting conditions severe enough, they will evacuate Cape Canaveral hospital and transport those patients to the mainland hospitals about 24-36 hours in advance. And depending upon their need, determines where they will go. And that hospital will be shut down, because it literally sits just a few feet above water line on the Banana River.

They will issue mandatory evacs for barrier islands and mainland mobile homes if they anticipate hurricane conditions. Otherwise voluntary. But they shut down the causeways once sustained winds reach it's either 45 or 55, I can't remember... you may be right on the 55.
Question,Gov Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency for every county in Florida, is there a chance it will move further west closer to the Panhandle? Just curious as to the whole state being included.
Do we get another shift to the west on the cone?
Recon have now descended and are gearing up for a center pass. Link

Already tropical force storm sufrace winds far from the center and just by/along the coast of Haiti.
that would indeed be horrible news for Charleston. The bad news is increasingly starting to come to Florida itself.

Quoting 1061. nash36:

I posted this earlier, but who knows if it ever made it;

Should the 18z come to fruition, there will need to be a contra flow on I-26 for evacuation in Charleston.
1067. Patrap
After tracking just east of due north for most of the day Matthew looks to be resuming a due north motion. This may allow the eye of the hurricane to skirt the western end of the mountainous peninsula of Haiti and retain most of its intensity. The last hurricane that tackled that peninsula head on from the south east was effectively decapitated and sent to the sw after losing the encounter. That was Gustav's attempt to ride rough shod across that terrain.

While I am not suggesting the same will happen to Matthew, which is significantly stronger than Gustav was when it tried rolling over western Haiti, the fact remains that a near miss by the eye would make a significant difference to what the hurricane will be beyond Haiti than if there was a direct strike on those mountains. A lot will be riding on which way it goes.

I tried to post the chart for Gustav but it is not showing. Not sure why.

1069. IKE
Quoting 1059. pingon:

Did he ask your shoe size?

Lol.
StormW liked football. NFL and NCAA.
Now back to Matthew.
1070. Patrap

AF306 Mission #18 into MATTHEW
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 23:20 UTC Oct 03, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 17.45°N 73.72°W
Bearing: 225° at 166 kt
Altitude: 3111 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 60 kt at 137°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1001.5 mb

Quoting 1020. Dakster:



I do miss the Master Chief....


Old Storm was usually spot on. I miss his prognoses too...and as he liked to say, "albeit ...they came with baggage"....or I guess maybe footage??
First, Rick Scott....now Storm W is going to cause a blog crash again.
1073. wpb
af recon down to 10k data flowing in.
lots of turbulance caused by mountains
have a safe flight crew.
Quoting 1028. Grothar:



We normally discredit everything. Then when the models switch, we say, "See, I told you so". You'll get used to it.



-----------------------------------------------
Gro that was a perfect answer! LOL I am finally back. my computer got locked up Sat around noon and would not work the past 3 days. Son came over after work and tonight and fixed it. I am so relieved I can now be back her to watch it all unfold. I was getting WU withdrawls! and just not the same reading some of it on my old worn out Iphone4! And we are back in the cone again...
1075. Patrap
Quoting 1024. islander44:



Trust me, FEMA is all over this, and is better run and prepared then "Heckuva Job Brownie" ever dreamed of. You can bet midnight oil is being burned to make sure they can respond quickly and effectively.


Absolutely. The Ops guys upstairs know what to do. Always remember, though, that response and recovery starts at the local and state levels. So, listen to your local emergency managers, if Matthew looks to be in your future.

On a personal note. I have put in 70 hours this week, and I was supposed to finally be able to go home October 8th. (I've been working on the Louisiana floods). I am tired, exhausted, and a little homesick. If Matthew hits, however, I will be on the first flight/bus/car I can get down to the affected area. FEMA may seem like a big, nebulous agency, but as with any disaster relief organization, the people who make it up have a genuine desire to help.
1077. redux
Quoting 1010. FloorManBroward:


Storm W was always afoot with the latest info.


the best part about this comment is you have 67 comments in 10 years. well played.

anyways, back to the music.....

total amateur here. How important is the L overtop the plains to the storms ultimate track?
1078. evsnds
I'm on mobile so I don't have an easily accessible image, but look at the blowup of convection on the NW side. He's hitting very warm waters and shear is rapidly declining. The model concensus still hasn't been able to fully understand how strong the ridge over Bermuda is, and how weak the trough in the GOMEX is.

Expect more western shifts north of southern SC. I would say skirting the Florida coastline would be the most Miami would see. The real danger lies in Charleston, OBX, Virginia Beach and quite possibly coastal sections of New Jersey and Long Island.
1079. Patrap
Great Blog performance as the pings are fast.

👍✌🌊🌎🎑🌜

I have to say that I was not convinced that Matthew would strike Florida with anymore more than a glancing blow, but that NHC cone is uncomfortably close to Miami-Fort Lauderdale on Thursday. I thought the UKMET was an outlier, but it was certainly ahead of the other models in the showing the westward shift, which concerns me. I still think that it is more likely to be a threat to the Carolinas (for a direct hit), but if that ridge builds in just a little bit more, South and Central Florida could be in big trouble. Hurricane watches are going to be needed tomorrow for entire Florida East Coast I think - just in case.


Packing my gear to prepare for an intercept in Cocoa Beach FL. Remember Jeanne all to well..... it was supposed to track the up the coast too. Came inland and touched the GOM before turning NE.
1082. nash36
Quoting 1071. floridabuckeyes:



Old Storm was usually spot on. I miss his prognoses too...and as he liked to say, "albeit ...they came with baggage"....or I guess maybe footage??


I'm only going to make one comment on this;

I had a nice dinner with StormW and his wife WAAAAAYYY back in the day in Tampa. I believe it was 2005. Nice, genuine man.
Quoting 1068. kmanislander:

After tracking just east of due north for most of the day Matthew looks to be resuming a due north motion. This may allow the eye of the hurricane to skirt the western end of the mountainous peninsula of Haiti and retain most of its intensity. The last hurricane that tackled that peninsula head on from the south east was effectively decapitated and sent to the sw after losing the encounter. That was Gustav's attempt to ride rough shod across that terrain.

While I am not suggesting the same will happen to Matthew, which is significantly stronger than Gustav was when it tried rolling over western Haiti, the fact remains that a near miss by the eye would make a significant difference to what the hurricane will be beyond Haiti than if there was a direct strike on those mountains. A lot will be riding on which way it goes.

I tried to post the chart for Gustav but it is not showing. Not sure why.



Make sure you remove the s the https in the url
Quoting 1058. QueensWreath:




ACK!
WOW !
My mind had not set foot in StormW territory for quite some time. I truly enjoyed him and his input. He had a large understanding.



He has his own blog, I follow him... great source of info as well as JM blog out of respect I won't post his page but he has one. It's been years since all that happened I'd hope it is water under the bridge now...
1085. Patrap
Quoting 1043. QueensWreath:



Or a combination. Such a reform / collapse would be an opportunity to ingest that slot of dry air. (its very noticeable in sat loop). In either case it would allow for a new eyewall formation.

Nope vary moist environment around Matthew's core with and that's not collapsing storms its a giant blow up of storms on his west/southwest side.
WV loopLink
Wait.... StormW did this to other people? I stopped coming here because of him
1088. IDTH
Quoting 1016. sfranz:



Best of luck. Your friend is lucky he has someone who cares.



Thanks, I'm hoping Matthew doesn't pay my home a visit. Being in the mountains right now just feels like a sign that I had to leave. Joaquin felt like a sign last year that Wilmington's luck was about to run out and I said that throughout the year (yeah I'm kind of the paranoid amateur forecaster)

I hope it wasn't but if it was, I'm going to make sure I do whatever's in my power to make sure I have no funerals to go to. Matthew is a storm that is going to affect so many people, I just hope and stress people to be ready.
I can see where this StormW conversation is going...
It used to be that you could Google "Jeff Masters can stick his website where the sun don't shine" and get the whole story...
18Z GFS..... basically onshore between Jupiter and St Aug.
1092. nash36
Quoting 1079. Patrap:

Great Blog performance as the pings are fast.

👍✌🌊🌎🎑🌜




I'm happy the powers-that-be recognized how serious this is becoming (the storm) and how truly horrific it would be if this blog were not operational.
1093. Patrap
Quoting 1042. wilburo33:

Funny you ask! I just googled his name and here he is!
Storm W




"I have to concur with the current NHC intensity forecast"

Told ya.
18z GFS ensembles even further west.
1096. Grothar
Has Baha, been on? I haven't seen her. It also doesn't look good for the Bahamas. Long haul there.
Yup to the comment below; Matthew took quite the jog to the NE earlier, and I thought he was going to miss the mountains of Cuba, and just go over the mountains of Haiti, but resuming the motion to the North now; looks now like the core might miss the Haitian mountains if it can stay to the West of 74.5W and just deal with the Cuban ones (unless he jogs again to the right as he goes through the gap)........................ 



Quoting 1083. isothunder67:


Make sure you remove the s the https in the url


Thanks

1099. IDTH
Quoting 1048. Envoirment:

Microwave pass from about 45 mins ago:



Looks like the EWRC is complete with a very intense eye wall...All Matthew has to do is clear it out.

Was hoping this wouldn't happen, now that is has the wind field will expand and the pressure will begin to start dropping again.
Quoting 1059. pingon:

Did he ask your shoe size?

You're a bad person pingon.
Quoting 1096. Grothar:

Has Baha, been on? I haven't seen her. It also doesn't look good for the Bahamas. Long haul there.


She posted during the blog slog said she was going home and maybe the post would show up by then.
1102. Walshy
StormW was a grump old man that needed a new pair of glasses.
Quoting 1061. nash36:

I posted this earlier, but who knows if it ever made it;

Should the 18z come to fruition, there will need to be a contra flow on I-26 for evacuation in Charleston.


They do that on the Beachline Expwy now along with other roads here in FL. Mandated after 2004 hurricanes, legislated in 2007. Of course 1999 Floyd was also a huge part of that discussion, largest peacetime evacuation at the time.
Quoting 1097. weathermanwannabe:

Yup to the comment below; Matthew took quite the jog to the NE earlier, and I thought he was going to miss the mountains of Cuba, and just go over the mountains of Haiti, but resuming the motion to the North now; looks now like the core might miss the Haitian mountains if it can stay to the West of 74.5W and just deal with the Cuban ones (unless he jogs again to the right as he goes through the gap)........................ 






Bobbing and weaving. A crafty one, that Matthew LOL.
I have to think that it will but they may wait and see. They already had their dramatic moment today to catch the eye of many.

Quoting 1064. jordan1tylerr:

Do we get another shift to the west on the cone?
Quoting 1096. Grothar:

Has Baha, been on? I haven't seen her. It also doesn't look good for the Bahamas. Long haul there.


Ye she has, I've seen her post a few times over the last couple days. Looks very bad for the Bahamas. Best case scenario is if Matthew wobbles directly over very high mountains before getting there.
1108. IDTH
Quoting 1096. Grothar:

Has Baha, been on? I haven't seen her. It also doesn't look good for the Bahamas. Long haul there.

She was on earlier today when the blog was slow.
I am actually leaning a lot more towards FL (south FL is very much under the gun, in my humble opinion) than the NE/recurve with the way the systems are moving through the US currently and 85 L becoming a non-factor in eroding the high with the ridging getting stronger on the model runs. The Low in the gulf may influence a bit west if it stays in range as would a weaker storm coming off the islands (provided the storm doesn't stall over cuba/haiti or completly get torn asunder)


Quoting 1080. VegasRain:

I have to say that I was not convinced that Matthew would strike Florida with anymore more than a glancing blow, but that NHC cone is uncomfortably close to Miami-Fort Lauderdale on Thursday. I thought the UKMET was an outlier, but it was certainly ahead of the other models in the showing the westward shift, which concerns me. I still think that it is more likely to be a threat to the Carolinas, but if that ridge builds in just a little bit more, South and Central Florida could be in big trouble. Hurricane watches are going to be needed tomorrow for entire Florida East Coast I think - just in case.


1110. 900MB
Quoting 1082. nash36:



I'm only going to make one comment on this;

I had a nice dinner with StormW and his wife WAAAAAYYY back in the day in Tampa. I believe it was 2005. Nice, genuine man.


Loved StormW. Smart as a whip. Missed the whole blowup by a couple days. We are still talking about him. Legend?
i think mat is a cat 5 right now


recon is all ready finding 85 too 90kt winds and not even at the center yet
1112. vis0
FROM DR/ Masters/Mr. Henson's #3458 pg3::
Quoting 126. stoormfury:


Very large wave over central Africa, exactly the same area where Matthew originated. This could be the O storm

This
wave when in Eastern Africa reach almost as far north as what became
2016MATTHEW in northern-eastern Sudan (tried to post an aniGIF but for
once error was on my image hosting sites, it was late i was dozing off
so it never was uploaded (will post if IT becomes a TS).
2016Karl
reached the midpoint of Libya border touching Sudan, Matthew reached a
bit more Northward almost to Egypt southern border (East to Libya) and
this latest formation reached to the right angle of SE Libya.

BUT IMPORTANT
is that these reached at 3 specific Mb heights as to moisture content
reaching a saturation up to the lower third in each sat reading(for that
area lower third is a lot, not a parking lot TWI) .
EXAMPLE

in the BTD readings the BTD reached -15 (negative fifteen). Does this
mean anything, i think certain years it means more than other years,
this was/is one of those wxtrend periods it means something as far as
TS.
HERE THAT aniGIF HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH 2016MATTHEW
was from period ending of August 2016 to start of September 2016/  It
deals with my imagined invention SO IGNORE THE TEXT, this is just one of
the 3 SAT imagery types in this example  i
overlay to show the further northward moisture flow at 3 specific
heights/Millibars. (i highly recommend freeware "NOMACs"  to play GIFs, very smooth
even on large quantity GIFs.
Want to try this yourself? go to
http://www-angler.larc.nasa.gov/ and have fun BUT NOT if your in the
danger zone of any watch/warned weather event, in those areas be listening to official alerts, save the link for a quiet day.

Of 7 moisturized
areas that fit my explanation above 6 became TS, 3 Hurr only 1 that has
not is this one coming off western Africa, can't count it either way
till it completes its journey over the ATL be it sheared off to Europe
or does nothing crossing ATL or becomes a TD...

BTW i'm worried as to earthquakes for the next 3-4 days, have sent
official some EMails hope i'm wrong as noticed as other members have
some activities which are not out of the norm but i'm getting a bit of a
feeling in reading my imaginary devices readouts. PRACTICE yer Quake
Drills it won't hurt to do so.

Lets observe..huh? why is no one looking at Eastern ATL...oohhhhhhh it MATTHEW still a"round"?
1113. Patrap
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You should be able to answer the following questions before a hurricane threatens:

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1114. wpb
recon showing very strong winds
eye pass soon
1115. Grothar
Very small eye. Strange system since it looks like more activity on the west than the east.

1116. IDTH
Quoting 1111. thetwilightzone:

i think mat is a cat 5 right now


recon is all ready finding 85 too 90kt winds and not even at the center yet

That wind field really expanded.
Quoting 1085. Patrap:




So that last frame... Looks like Matthew's inexplicable twin is about to blow up again!
Certainy looks like the windfield has expanded. Already high flight level winds and hurricane force surface winds.

Quoting 1074. seflagamma:




-----------------------------------------------
Gro that was a perfect answer! LOL I am finally back. my computer got locked up Sat around noon and would not work the past 3 days. Son came over after work and tonight and fixed it. I am so relieved I can now be back her to watch it all unfold. I was getting WU withdrawls! and just not the same reading some of it on my old worn out Iphone4! And we are back in the cone again...


Hi Gamma. Long time no see. Watching where this is going is not fun.

Hope all is well with you


Recon's going in...
1121. IDTH
Quoting 1118. Envoirment:

Certainy looks like the windfield has expanded. Already high flight level winds and hurricane force surface winds.



shall we see if they find a Cat 5? I got my popcorn
For the first time Matt's twin is not dominating the show. Proximity to SA

The devastation in Haiti is likely to be horrific. They can't catch a break there. Relief agencies should be gearing up now if not already.
Quoting 1078. evsnds:

I'm on mobile so I don't have an easily accessible image, but look at the blowup of convection on the NW side. He's hitting very warm waters and shear is rapidly declining. The model concensus still hasn't been able to fully understand how strong the ridge over Bermuda is, and how weak the trough in the GOMEX is.

Expect more western shifts north of southern SC. I would say skirting the Florida coastline would be the most Miami would see. The real danger lies in Charleston, OBX, Virginia Beach and quite possibly coastal sections of New Jersey and Long Island.


Just hope it doesn't track too far inland...which would elevate the potential impacts here in Richmond.
Latest frame showing very intense thunderstorms all around the eye once again:



1127. Grothar
Splat east of the Antilles.

Looks like 98L is trapped for several hours now, she may have to wait for Mathew to get out of the way then loop in behind Mat.
Quoting 1117. hurricanefiend85:



So that last frame... Looks like Matthew's inexplicable twin is about to blow up again!

Matthew it's self is blowing up
Quoting 1090. presslord:

whole story...


Good 'ol StormW...Certainly was a piece of work. lol

HWRF in Wilmington at 102 hrs...


Quoting 1059. pingon:

Did he ask your shoe size?
I don't know...Take that up with your wife.....
Most powerful storms wobble a lot along a general trajectory but how much does not often become evident until you have a landmass nearly (or nearing landfall somewhere) to compare as a reference point on approach......Hermine wobbled a little bit to the right on approach to the Big Bend and it made a difference in Tallahassee between lots of trees down versus tons of trees down................That 50 mile mile difference in eye wall location makes a huge difference in terms of the hardest hit locations within a narrow radius.
Well, dang. I leave for work this morning and things are looking relatively fine here in Charleston. I come home from work, and not so much. This is reminding me of Floyd, which I rode out in my car on I-26. First time I ever peed in the woods in front of unreasonable numbers of strangers. It's all good, though. I'm prepared this time. My thoughts and prayers go out to my fellow beings who are in harms way right now in the Caribbean Islands with nowhere to hide and no way to run.
The southern Amazon will have more fires next year due to abundant moisture pulled north by Hurricane Matthew! U Cal Irvine/NASA.

Thunderstorms will approach Miami from the ESE!
What is up with not being able to modify a comment with a graphic or link in it?
Quoting 1117. hurricanefiend85:



So that last frame... Looks like Matthew's inexplicable twin is about to blow up again!


It's quite unfortunate that Matt Jr. decides to pop in right near Haiti
Quoting 1115. Grothar:

Very small eye. Strange system since it looks like more activity on the west than the east.




Matthew probably felt slighted that the NHC took the hurricane warning away from Jamaica... This is his "I'll show you!" moment.
1138. Prouss
Quoting 1113. Patrap:

a href="https://www.wunderground.com/blog/Patrap/hur ricane-preparation-2016"

Florida SERT ‏@FLSERT 39 minHace 39 minutos
During disasters, sending text messages is usually faster than making phone calls as phone lines are often overloaded #FLPrepares
Quoting 1063. watchdog40:

Question,Gov Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency for every county in Florida, is there a chance it will move further west closer to the Panhandle? Just curious as to the whole state being included.

I didn't check today but gale force was out 205 miles from the centre and florida is around 75 miles wide give or take, so he either knows its going to be a closer call or preparing for a closer call.
1140. Smitter
Quoting 1015. Patrap:




Looks like Matthew is trying to grab Jamaica by feeding off that extreme hot water. I would not have cancelled the Hurricane watches and Warnings for Jamaica. Glad the country kept them going.. This is unbelievable watching this future retired name unfold from just a few weeks ago when folks on here were taking about the low rider coming off of Africa.
1141. guygee
Quoting 1044. GenTen:



If OIA shuts down inbound flights before his is scheduled then there are laws that kick in to protect his job.

But, he should be planing to return as scheduled and stay updated on the storm because again. Its 5 days out and a lot can change. We could wind up with a forecast completely missing the east coast tomorrow.
I think FL has some strict "Right to fire you from work" laws? Then again, IANAA. Here is some 12Z GEFS 996 mb and 1024 mb spaghetti.

96 hrs.
1142. ackee
Quoting 1115. Grothar:

Very small eye. Strange system since it looks like more activity on the west than the east.

Huge blow up on west Jamaica eastern part might get some rain
Quoting 1115. Grothar:

Very small eye. Strange system since it looks like more activity on the west than the east.



Convection is popping over the highest TCHP. Based on the forward motion, and how the convection is spinning around the center... this looks REALLY bad for Haiti...

And Matthew is DEFINITELY a strange storm - I foresee many dissertations being written about this storm for years to come...
1144. Patrap
Click image for loop

The NAM was among the models to shift west first yesterday!


Quoting 1127. Grothar:

Splat east of the Antilles.


I am not sure if this is the wave that the Euro develops near Jamaica as a tropical storm.
Quoting 1068. kmanislander:

After tracking just east of due north for most of the day Matthew looks to be resuming a due north motion. This may allow the eye of the hurricane to skirt the western end of the mountainous peninsula of Haiti and retain most of its intensity. The last hurricane that tackled that peninsula head on from the south east was effectively decapitated and sent to the sw after losing the encounter. That was Gustav's attempt to ride rough shod across that terrain.

While I am not suggesting the same will happen to Matthew, which is significantly stronger than Gustav was when it tried rolling over western Haiti, the fact remains that a near miss by the eye would make a significant difference to what the hurricane will be beyond Haiti than if there was a direct strike on those mountains. A lot will be riding on which way it goes.

I tried to post the chart for Gustav but it is not showing. Not sure why.




I have been thinking about Gustav all day, hope it doesn't happen again ;P
I cannot keep up with the all the blog posts ATM, sent you a WU Mail Kman thanks!!!
What ever happened to StormW?

Quoting 1110. 900MB:



Loved StormW. Smart as a whip. Missed the whole blowup by a couple days. We are still talking about him. Legend?
1149. MahFL
Quoting 1124. kmanislander:

The devastation in Haiti is likely to be horrific. They can't catch a break there. Relief agencies should be gearing up now if not already.


They already have supplies in place.
1150. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 032339
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Matthew, located over the central Caribbean Sea to the
south-southwest of Haiti.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of
low pressure located about 430 miles north-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands have increased and become better organized today.
Further development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for
development. This system is expected to move west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent


$$
Forecaster Roberts
Quoting 1102. Walshy:

StormW was a grump old man that needed a new pair of glasses.


Remember... if we are lucky one day we all may get to be grumpy old men.
GFDL...18z

Quoting 1119. zoomiami:



Hi Gamma. Long time no see. Watching where this is going is not fun.

Hope all is well with you



Hi Zoo, I am not here often these days unless there is a storm out there to watch. These days I lurk more than post. I do try to keep up with my personal blog for few old friends here that are not on FB. So I am always around.
But the last few weeks I have been lurking a lot... good to see you again too.

So, here in SE Fla we are in play again...... hopefully it will flip and flop again... but we all need to be ready just in case.
Thanks everyone for all the great info. You have no idea how many folks I know read this blog even though they never post at all. It is important stuff some of you come up with.
Thanks!
1154. MahFL
Quoting 1149. MahFL:



They already have supplies in place. The money you donate replaces those supplies.
Excellent Patrap!

My god... Pressures already down to 947mb and not at the center yet! Lots of high winds too


233400 1656N 07415W 6963 02979 9846 +100 +100 144094 096 080 012 00
233430 1655N 07416W 6968 02960 9843 +102 +102 141099 102 083 023 00
233500 1654N 07417W 6965 02950 9834 +101 +101 141107 108 083 028 00
233530 1653N 07418W 6961 02928 9804 +106 +106 139111 115 089 040 00
233600 1652N 07419W 6969 02903 9785 +108 +108 145115 118 095 034 00
233630 1651N 07420W 6971 02877 9758 +115 +115 146121 126 097 047 00
233700 1650N 07421W 6967 02864 9734 +117 //// 147122 126 095 060 05
233730 1649N 07422W 6958 02853 9710 +121 +121 146127 129 101 061 00
233800 1649N 07424W 6980 02800 9688 +122 +122 143122 127 102 062 00
233830 1648N 07425W 6926 02842 9645 +128 +128 150120 128 108 055 03
233900 1647N 07426W 6980 02754 9599 +135 //// 152104 116 119 041 05
233930 1646N 07428W 6972 02733 9552 +143 +143 141095 100 117 018 00
234000 1645N 07429W 6961 02718 9526 +132 //// 138096 097 112 006 01
234030 1644N 07431W 6975 02663 9471 +138 +137 135092 097 106 005 00
Quoting 1095. WeatherkidJoe2323:

18z GFS ensembles even further west.


Yeah, if we see this hold for next few runs, then I expect watches are up from WPB to JAX.
The Hurricane Models, HWRF and GFDL shifted west big time!

GFDL puts it about 1 degree offshore of Vero Beach.



The HWRF puts Great Abaco in the eye.

1159. HiWay58
*gulp* Does anyone else see what appears like potential RI again? Those flare ups of the twin and the south west side are very impressive, and if it did a EWRC, it was very fast because the eye does appear to have changed but cleared out very quickly. The recon is already seeing a expanded wind field that would support this.
Quoting 1025. UKHWatcher:

Dare I say it, looks like it's gonna steer itself through the Windward Passage intact?


It may not make it through with zero time over land, but it likely will only spend a few hours total over land, if that. I don't see that short trek weakening it lower than a Cat 3.
1161. Prouss
HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp 28 shace 28 segundos Cross Creek, Atlanta
Another model, another W shift. 18Z GEFS average is just offshore, many members over FL. #Matthew #preparenow #majorhurricane
1162. Patrap
Quoting 1143. jeffs713:


Convection is popping over the highest TCHP. Based on the forward motion, and how the convection is spinning around the center... this looks REALLY bad for Haiti...

And Matthew is DEFINITELY a strange storm - I foresee many dissertations being written about this storm for years to come...







👍 🎑🌎🌊🌜
GFDL is much slower than the HWRF

My Wife just cancelled a flight, from Jacksonville to Mass to visit the Daughter, flying out of Jax on Friday PM; probably a good call because she is on a tight schedule with work and needed to be back by Monday. Bad weather tends to follow her around..............With her luck, the storm might have followed her to Mass by Monday................
definitely a secondary eye wall forming, thus the second wind max.
Quoting 1150. SLU:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032339
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Matthew, located over the central Caribbean Sea to the
south-southwest of Haiti.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of
low pressure located about 430 miles north-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands have increased and become better organized today.
Further development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for
development. This system is expected to move west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent


$$
Forecaster Roberts
Looks like this system wants to develop into Nicole before its kills by windshear.
Looooong time lurker here. I remember StormW... and I remember JFV too. This blog was so entertaining back in the day! (Where is that guy and his shower curtain these days...)
1168. Grothar
Quoting 1143. jeffs713:


Convection is popping over the highest TCHP. Based on the forward motion, and how the convection is spinning around the center... this looks REALLY bad for Haiti...

And Matthew is DEFINITELY a strange storm - I foresee many dissertations being written about this storm for years to come...


I've only been following hurricanes for what now, 400 years, and I have never seen one with a presentation like this one. It will be interesting to see what explanation they have for the two-part hurricane.
1169. IDTH
Quoting 1156. Envoirment:

My god... Pressures already down to 947mb and not at the center yet! Lots of high winds too


233400 1656N 07415W 6963 02979 9846 +100 +100 144094 096 080 012 00
233430 1655N 07416W 6968 02960 9843 +102 +102 141099 102 083 023 00
233500 1654N 07417W 6965 02950 9834 +101 +101 141107 108 083 028 00
233530 1653N 07418W 6961 02928 9804 +106 +106 139111 115 089 040 00
233600 1652N 07419W 6969 02903 9785 +108 +108 145115 118 095 034 00
233630 1651N 07420W 6971 02877 9758 +115 +115 146121 126 097 047 00
233700 1650N 07421W 6967 02864 9734 +117 //// 147122 126 095 060 05
233730 1649N 07422W 6958 02853 9710 +121 +121 146127 129 101 061 00
233800 1649N 07424W 6980 02800 9688 +122 +122 143122 127 102 062 00
233830 1648N 07425W 6926 02842 9645 +128 +128 150120 128 108 055 03
233900 1647N 07426W 6980 02754 9599 +135 //// 152104 116 119 041 05
233930 1646N 07428W 6972 02733 9552 +143 +143 141095 100 117 018 00
234000 1645N 07429W 6961 02718 9526 +132 //// 138096 097 112 006 01
234030 1644N 07431W 6975 02663 9471 +138 +137 135092 097 106 005 00


This is crazy man. Our fear's came true.
Quoting 1115. Grothar:

Very small eye. Strange system since it looks like more activity on the west than the east.




Since storm is moving almost due north and a direction not usually seen for hurricanes, there is alot we are learning from this system. But a storm with the western side being the strong side would really throw a wrench in the traditional wisdom of tropical weather. I mean Matthew has strengthened in high windshear earlier in its life so their is that too...
The HWRF, among others continues to trend west!


1172. Patrap
Haha! love it.
Quoting 1042. wilburo33:

Funny you ask! I just googled his name and here he is!
Storm W


Quoting 1130. StormJunkie:



Good 'ol StormW...Certainly was a piece of work. lol

HWRF in Wilmington at 102 hrs...





That's a bit fast, no?
wobble back to the west
OK everyone, the Storm W comments can be moved to another venue such as WU mail and such.
There is no need for further discussion on the main blog when there is certainly a lot of weather related subjects to discuss, like maybe Mathew or Category 5 Super Typhoon Chaba. Thank you all for your cooperating in this regard.
Quoting 992. Hurricanes101:

18Z HWRF is sticking to its guns on the further East solution


In my opinion Matt is going to head a little more east over Haiti and pass far enough east of Cuba's mountains so that he maintains most of his strength. That strength is going to keep Matt more on a northerly path. I don't think Matt will actually make landfall but it will be very close for NC.

Grain of salt and all that though. It really depends on what happens as he passes Cuba.
1178. SLU
Quoting 1127. Grothar:

Splat east of the Antilles.




That's the wave the EURO develops in the WCAR in 7 days. The UKMET is also interested in it.
Quoting 1148. oceanblues32:

What ever happened to StormW?




See post 1090...And that may have been the more mild offense.
The GFDL off the South Carolina coast forecast!

Quoting 1158. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The Hurricane Models, HWRF and GFDL shifted west big time!

GFDL puts it about 1 degree offshore of Vero Beach.



The HWRF puts Great Abaco in the eye.


Been in the eye before in Abaco...Don't need to do that again!
Just talked to Johnny Roberts at Nippers on Great Guana Cay and he is getting ready.
I don't want to be morbid but we should remember that this is a life and death situation. The sad state of affairs with this monster bearing down on Haiti is that many will go to sleep tonight only to be awakened in time to find themselves being drowned. From what I understand it is not an easy way to die. Let's hope that the words of C.S. Lewis are true: “Has this world been so kind to you that you should leave with regret? There are better things ahead than any we leave behind.”
Quoting 1167. itsprkles:

Looooong time lurker here. I remember StormW... and I remember JFV too. This blog was so entertaining back in the day! (Where is that guy and his shower curtain these days...)


Well, I am from the days of STORMTOP. Quite a guy, that one...
Quoting 1140. Smitter:



Looks like Matthew is trying to grab Jamaica by feeding off that extreme hot water. I would not have cancelled the Hurricane watches and Warnings for Jamaica. Glad the country kept them going.. This is unbelievable watching this future retired name unfold from just a few weeks ago when folks on here were taking about the low rider coming off of Africa.


It is very neat to watch the show all unfold, but only from a sturdy house and a satellite image.

No better place to watch the drama than on here, but really and truly unfortunately someone's like is being taken by this storm...You can't wish for these things but watching them is rather Imteresting
Quoting 1174. win1gamegiantsplease:



That's a bit fast, no?


A day fast, yes...
Quoting 1156. Envoirment:

My god... Pressures already down to 947mb and not at the center yet! Lots of high winds too


233400 1656N 07415W 6963 02979 9846 +100 +100 144094 096 080 012 00
233430 1655N 07416W 6968 02960 9843 +102 +102 141099 102 083 023 00
233500 1654N 07417W 6965 02950 9834 +101 +101 141107 108 083 028 00
233530 1653N 07418W 6961 02928 9804 +106 +106 139111 115 089 040 00
233600 1652N 07419W 6969 02903 9785 +108 +108 145115 118 095 034 00
233630 1651N 07420W 6971 02877 9758 +115 +115 146121 126 097 047 00
233700 1650N 07421W 6967 02864 9734 +117 //// 147122 126 095 060 05
233730 1649N 07422W 6958 02853 9710 +121 +121 146127 129 101 061 00
233800 1649N 07424W 6980 02800 9688 +122 +122 143122 127 102 062 00
233830 1648N 07425W 6926 02842 9645 +128 +128 150120 128 108 055 03
233900 1647N 07426W 6980 02754 9599 +135 //// 152104 116 119 041 05
233930 1646N 07428W 6972 02733 9552 +143 +143 141095 100 117 018 00
234000 1645N 07429W 6961 02718 9526 +132 //// 138096 097 112 006 01
234030 1644N 07431W 6975 02663 9471 +138 +137 135092 097 106 005 00



Secondary wind max strengthening all at the worst possible time for Haiti rain potential alone is insane. If you haven't looked at Haiti on google earth it paints a clear picture about what happens when a country is deforested.

1187. LBAR
The ants are mounding mountains today. Not a good sign here in central South Carolina.

Beach/The Grand Strand doesn't need a hurricane (who does?!?). Those south-facing beaches in Brunswick County, NC (between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington) will be sloshed, tossed, and sloshed some more I'm afraid. All that water piling up into the Frying Pan Shoals (the large curve on SC's northern coast that leads into NC)...not good at all.
1188. Mel1978
Quoting 1148. oceanblues32:

What ever happened to StormW?




He has his own blog now
"Matthew passed over NOAA buoy 42058 early Monday morning, and top winds during passage of the weaker portion of the eyewall were 74 mph, gusting to 92 mph. Seas were 34 feet, and the buoy recorded a minimum pressure of 943 mb. The wind measurement height on the buoy was 5 meters, so an upwards correction of about 10 mph is needed to adjust these numbers to the standard 10-meter observing height for winds."

Big credit to NOAA for deploying such sturdy buoys that can withstand the passage of a category 4 hurricane. Although, I noticed that the smaller and less robust looking nearby NOAA buoy 42T58 did not fare as well and lost some of its instruments.

My question for evaluating the measured winds from 42058 is: what is the effective surface of a roiling ocean with 34 foot waves? Also the buoy wind mast is only 5 m (16 ft) above the surface when upright, but riding up and down on steep waves, the mast is likely to tilt frequently and may very often lurk beneath the towering waves. Those high waves greatly increase the local surface roughness and thus decrease wind speeds that would have been measured at say 5 m above the top of the waves. And that's not to mention effects from likely battering by breaking waves at times and constant blowing spray. Too bad it didn't have a webcam to show us what was likely a very tumultuous time. My conundrum is how to interpret the winds measured by buoys in very stormy seas. To me it is not likely to be a simple 10 mph adjustment for difference in measurement height between 5 and 10 meters and could easily be much more at times. Trying to measure and characterize winds in intense hurricanes in a meaningful way is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty.
1190. 62901IL
Quoting 1171. cirrocumulus:

The HWRF, among others continues to trend west!





The XTRP is the outliar, of course.
934.5 found by recon
Lowest pressure reading 934-936mb

234330 1637N 07439W 6967 02582 9354 147 //// 134004 009 019 003 01
234400 1636N 07440W 6959 02583 9345 157 145 317012 021 023 000 03
234430 1635N 07442W 6967 02582 9347 165 144 311039 048 034 002 00

Wow.
Yup. I won't comment further in fear of getting banned

Quoting 1087. stuckinFL10:

Wait.... StormW did this to other people? I stopped coming here because of him
Quoting 793. Michfan:



Yup this run is a damn nightmare. Rides up the entire east coast with the eye just offshore.


So do you think it's capable of removing 1000 times the sand that was renourished this season on South Carolina's beaches?
1195. SLU
Quoting 1166. allancalderini:

Looks like this system wants to develop into Nicole before its kills by windshear.

I think it's been a TC for at least 12 hrs now but the NHC is turning a blind eye to it as usual because the EURO and GFS don't bomb it out into a cat 5 off the Carolinas
Quoting 1110. 900MB:



Loved StormW. Smart as a whip. Missed the whole blowup by a couple days. We are still talking about him. Legend?

Long time lurker...He was Levi before Levi. In 2004 here in Florida he was must see opinion for me.
they coming are coming around for another pass.
Recon has found 129 Knots to the North East - looks like it is intensifying - Cat 5 again not out of the question
Eeek.

000
URNT15 KNHC 032350
AF306 1814A MATTHEW HDOB 18 20161003
234100 1643N 07432W 6967 02636 9438 142 142 135088 091 093 030 00
234130 1642N 07433W 6970 02591 9375 156 //// 141061 084 084 012 05
234200 1641N 07434W 6969 02587 //// 154 //// 143031 047 029 003 01
234230 1640N 07436W 6963 02589 //// 143 //// 146017 027 026 002 01
234300 1639N 07437W 6963 02589 //// 144 //// 143010 014 022 002 01
234330 1637N 07439W 6967 02582 9354 147 //// 134004 009 019 003 01
234400 1636N 07440W 6959 02583 9345 157 145 317012 021 023 000 03
234430 1635N 07442W 6967 02582 9347 165 144 311039 048 034 002 00
234500 1633N 07443W 6971 02606 9370 172 135 310064 073 050 003 03
234530 1632N 07444W 6972 02636 9400 178 114 310081 083 058 002 00
234600 1631N 07445W 6961 02683 9435 178 116 313089 090 064 002 00
234630 1630N 07446W 6957 02724 9482 167 119 312095 098 076 001 00
234700 1629N 07447W 6975 02739 9531 155 118 313098 100 083 006 00
234730 1628N 07448W 6957 02793 9576 146 124 313110 114 088 001 00
234800 1627N 07450W 6957 02827 9589 171 093 308107 111 091 002 00
234830 1626N 07451W 6977 02829 9633 155 095 301098 107 089 001 00
234900 1625N 07452W 6963 02867 9684 127 113 301095 097 084 002 00
234930 1624N 07453W 6970 02882 9718 118 109 302092 094 079 001 00
235000 1623N 07454W 6961 02914 9737 121 105 303084 089 073 003 00
235030 1621N 07455W 6968 02923 9758 115 113 303085 086 071 003 01
$$
;
Quoting 1167. itsprkles:

Looooong time lurker here. I remember StormW... and I remember JFV too. This blog was so entertaining back in the day! (Where is that guy and his shower curtain these days...)


Whomever brought up StormW needs to be taken out back and given a blindfold and a smoke.

We should be concentrating on the risk to Mar-a-Lago ;)
1201. IDTH
Quoting 1192. Envoirment:

Lowest pressure reading 934.7mb....


234430 1635N 07442W 6967 02582 9347 +165 +144 311039 048 034 002 00

Wow.


Why does it have to be Haiti in the path of this beast...
Quoting 1163. StormJunkie:

GFDL is much slower than the HWRF



Also shows a CAT5 very near Florida then runs it up the SE coast at strong Cat4/Cat5 intensity
Quoting 1201. IDTH:




If this is right, they did not even get the center
Hopefully we'll get info from a dropsonde soon.
Quoting 1169. IDTH:


This is crazy man. Our fear's came true.

No No No No No No No No No No No No
No No No No No No No No No No No
No No No No No No No No No No No No
Wow, just when I though JA would be get off the hook, that western part of the core literally just exploded with intense convection.
I have not followed Haitian politics in over 25 years now but back in the day when Papa Doc and his family were in power, if a powerful hurricane threatened the Island, many of the elite just flew out and went to Miami, New York, or Paris to avoid the inconvenience...............Don't know what the current political leadership is and whether they are more engaged with the people..............They will need lots of help after this storm.
Quoting 1204. Hurricanes101:



If this is right, they did not even get the center


IR image is lagging behind realtime in that shot. They did hit the center this pass.
Quoting 1193. bocahurricane:

Yup. I won't comment further in fear of getting banned




Are u from Boca Raton? If so, me too!!
My son Matthew is from Miami as I am, congratulated him on attaining Cat 5 status on his first try. Did say I hope it stays away from the Big Apple so they don't end up disliking him. Hope everyone on the east stays safe. My experience in October these storms are very difficult to forecast do to the rapid changes created by fronts. Could do a couple loops of the east coast , ya never know, but keep it tuned to the doc.
Quoting 1190. 62901IL:



The XTRP is the outliar, of course.


That's because the XTRP is not a model..... it's an extrapolated line from last known motion.... never happens.
I would bet a nickel, Storm is still here!
Quoting 1168. Grothar:



I've only been following hurricanes for what now, 400 years, and I have never seen one with a presentation like this one. It will be interesting to see what explanation they have for the two-part hurricane.

Then i would like to now how often do hurricanes and major hurricanes make land fall in nj?
Quoting 1204. Hurricanes101:



If this is right, they did not even get the center


The lowest pressure reading they got was 934.5mb with 23kt surface winds. A dropsonde was likely dropped so we should get a definitive answer from that. Pressure could be as low as 932-933mb...
1216. 62901IL
Quoting 1212. StormHype:



That's because the XTRP is not a model..... it's an extrapolated line from last known motion.... never happens.


I know...but somehow still love the XTRP.
Quoting 1209. CybrTeddy:



IR image is lagging behind realtime in that shot. They did hit the center this pass.


ah ok, still eek is right!
Quoting 1063. watchdog40:

Question,Gov Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency for every county in Florida, is there a chance it will move further west closer to the Panhandle? Just curious as to the whole state being included.
Here is a link to the law which gives the Governor extraordinary powers (it is essentially a proclamation of martial law) and by calling it catastrophic, it is a formal request for U.S. military aid.

http://www.leg.state.fl.us/statutes/index.cfm?App _mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=0200-0299 /0252/Sections/0252.36.html

Many of the assets which would be utilized are from Pensacola Naval Air Station; and regulatory/administrative/statutory issues are determined in Tallahassee. Although it may not be technically necessary to include those Counties, it avoids possible legal challenges to certain actions, etc.

It is not a statement about what Counties will be affected (as far as i know). Whenever I have seen it, even for Tropical Storms, it has been a Statewide Declaration. One hurricane season, the entire state was under a declaration for virtually the entire hurricane season, and almost until the end of the year.
1219. robj144
Quoting 1170. westFLtropics:



Since storm is moving almost due north and a direction not usually seen for hurricanes, there is alot we are learning from this system. But a storm with the western side being the strong side would really throw a wrench in the traditional wisdom of tropical weather. I mean Matthew has strengthened in high windshear earlier in its life so their is that too...


I think that's temporary. If you watch the animation that mass moved from the east to its west. It'll probably turn more symmetrical soon.
1220. SLU
Quoting 1192. Envoirment:

Lowest pressure reading 934.7mb....


234430 1635N 07442W 6967 02582 9347 +165 +144 311039 048 034 002 00

Wow.


This is quite a storm. The likes of which we haven't seen since the 'heydays' of the 2000s. This could be very bad for Haiti and the Bahamas.

Quoting 1198. hurricaneoz:

Recon has found 129 Knots to the North East - looks like it is intensifying - Cat 5 again not out of the question
Quoting 1199. CybrTeddy:

Eeek.

000
URNT15 KNHC 032350
AF306 1814A MATTHEW HDOB 18 20161003
234100 1643N 07432W 6967 02636 9438 142 142 135088 091 093 030 00
234130 1642N 07433W 6970 02591 9375 156 //// 141061 084 084 012 05
234200 1641N 07434W 6969 02587 //// 154 //// 143031 047 029 003 01
234230 1640N 07436W 6963 02589 //// 143 //// 146017 027 026 002 01
234300 1639N 07437W 6963 02589 //// 144 //// 143010 014 022 002 01
234330 1637N 07439W 6967 02582 9354 147 //// 134004 009 019 003 01
234400 1636N 07440W 6959 02583 9345 157 145 317012 021 023 000 03
234430 1635N 07442W 6967 02582 9347 165 144 311039 048 034 002 00
234500 1633N 07443W 6971 02606 9370 172 135 310064 073 050 003 03
234530 1632N 07444W 6972 02636 9400 178 114 310081 083 058 002 00
234600 1631N 07445W 6961 02683 9435 178 116 313089 090 064 002 00
234630 1630N 07446W 6957 02724 9482 167 119 312095 098 076 001 00
234700 1629N 07447W 6975 02739 9531 155 118 313098 100 083 006 00
234730 1628N 07448W 6957 02793 9576 146 124 313110 114 088 001 00
234800 1627N 07450W 6957 02827 9589 171 093 308107 111 091 002 00
234830 1626N 07451W 6977 02829 9633 155 095 301098 107 089 001 00
234900 1625N 07452W 6963 02867 9684 127 113 301095 097 084 002 00
234930 1624N 07453W 6970 02882 9718 118 109 302092 094 079 001 00
235000 1623N 07454W 6961 02914 9737 121 105 303084 089 073 003 00
235030 1621N 07455W 6968 02923 9758 115 113 303085 086 071 003 01
$$
;


Oh God. Matt's about to RI - right before hitting Haiti. This could not possibly get worse...
Quoting 1173. pspredicts:

Haha! love it.
Storm W is a pretty good guy. A navy met (ret) . who is big on plotting storms based on wind steering patterns among other things. Pretty good at it too. Has his own site now, that he runs part time. But, if you were not around when he was an active member, you cannot appreciate how nice a guy he is. Smart too. I learned a lot from him. Now jfv, the shower curtain guy was a different story all together. Plotted storms on one of those shower curtains with a drawing of world map on it. . . or so he said at one point.
Quoting 1188. Mel1978:



He has his own blog now

And here his twitter https://twitter.com/Stormwalsh

He should come back imho.
I wonder if there's a dropsonde reading. Winds aplear to be around 120kts, pressure might be sub-935mb.
Hurricane Matthew has shifted west and the eye is now forecast to miss the land in western Haiti!
934-936 mb said before they went in it would be in that range.
1227. 900MB
Quoting 1192. Envoirment:

Lowest pressure reading 934-936mb

234330 1637N 07439W 6967 02582 9354 147 //// 134004 009 019 003 01
234400 1636N 07440W 6959 02583 9345 157 145 317012 021 023 000 03
234430 1635N 07442W 6967 02582 9347 165 144 311039 048 034 002 00

Wow.


I 2nd that emotion.
The 8pm advisory is going to be all of 8:00 before issued. I think it may have strengthened significantly.
Is the process of expanding winds done or is it just starting (from the EWRC)?
Don't worry Dr Forbes you are still awesome I am sure there will be a tornado risk.
1231. robj144
Quoting 1214. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Then i would like to now how often do hurricanes and major hurricanes make land fall in nj?


Really easy to Google, but here you go:

Recon confirms strongest winds are a little ways removed from the center now, with an expansion of the higher wind radii. Pressure down a bit as well, with the top winds similar to before, down just a hair if anything. All telltale signs of an EWRC, and an efficient one at that.
Quoting 1178. SLU:



That's the wave the EURO develops in the WCAR in 7 days. The UKMET is also interested in it.


I believe earlier the 12z Euro put a strong TS into Honduras out of this. later 98L forms and is sucked up by Matt

The sucking...



The strike...

1235. IDTH
Michael Lowry may not have seen it, but he said that from the recon data he's looked at, it doesn't look indicative of a storm that underwent an EWRC or has expanded it's wind field.

I'm not making this up, was just watching TWC.
1236. ncstorm
excerpt from the NWS, Wilmington, NC latest briefing..

Antecedent soil saturation from earlier heavy rainfall events could come into play
later this week. Many areas between Lumberton, Florence, Georgetown, Myrtle
Beach, and Wilmington are 150-200% above normal over the last 30 days. As a
result, any heavy rainfall from Matthew could quickly lead to flash flooding
Quoting 1221. ThisIsNotSparta:



Oh God. Matt's about to RI - right before hitting Haiti. This could not possibly get worse...


A category 6 would be worst. :P
Ok now I am going to go jump off a bridge for that awful joke
The thing is, regardless of whether Matthew is a category 4 or 5, its windfield has expanded a lot.... Hurricane force winds extend across a larger field and major hurricane winds (100kt+) do as well... So even once the center has passed Haiti, they'll continue to experience hurricane or tropical storm force winds and rain for a while yet.

The windfield expanding will likely have impacts for storm surge/high waves etc as well... This is extremely bad.
Quoting 1167. itsprkles:

Looooong time lurker here. I remember StormW... and I remember JFV too. This blog was so entertaining back in the day! (Where is that guy and his shower curtain these days...)

He was shown the door a few times under different aliases sir.

Maybe the cone shift a little further west at 11?


























[An unusual area of extra spin and low pressure that has been embedded on the east side of Matthew’s circulation.] Is this similar to a tornado with an extra vortex?
8pm update from NHC delayed - likely waiting for a dropsonde from the flight for a pressure reading.

Nevermind, they stayed with 940mb/140mph.
1242. Pallis1
It does look like the EWRC is happening as bigwes6844's still captures it in a shadow on the east side of the eye wall. It makes it look like the eye is going more East than it is because you are seeing 2/3rds of the eye that is widening. Typical diurnal activity combined with visual effect of the sun going down bringing the normal satellite pictures unviable to true comprehension. Another clue would be the strong amount of convection on the west side of the eye. That's why we invented infrared. Let's just hope that Haiti does not get completely destroyed.
Quoting 1231. robj144:



Really easy to Google, but here you go:



So new jersey is long overdue?
Quoting 1233. JrWeathermanFL:



I believe earlier the 12z Euro put a strong TS into Honduras out of this. later 98L forms and is sucked up by Matt

The sucking...



The strike...


I would be happy with a ts. Conditions have been dry in here the last couple of years, but I do not want a moster like Matthew.
still no advisory... not good.

I really don't like how this thing is moving north at only 7 miles per hour; unless Matthew picks up speed then Haiti may have one of their worst hurricane disasters in decades from this monster. Flora of 1963 was the deadliest Haiti hurricane on record if I recall correctly, which killed over 5000 people in the country. The U.S. east coast is another story, it's still not out of the question Matthew could turn away before making landfall in the U.S, but even a slight change in the track of east coast hurricanes can make the difference between nearly no impacts (like Earl 2010) or one of the costliest hurricanes on record, like Irene.
LOL I remember us all watching the ant mounds!
Quoting 1187. LBAR:

The ants are mounding mountains today. Not a good sign here in central South Carolina.

Beach/The Grand Strand doesn't need a hurricane (who does?!?). Those south-facing beaches in Brunswick County, NC (between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington) will be sloshed, tossed, and sloshed some more I'm afraid. All that water piling up into the Frying Pan Shoals (the large curve on SC's northern coast that leads into NC)...not good at all.
1248. ncstorm
12z UKMET Ensembles..

Quoting 1216. 62901IL:



I know...but somehow still love the XTRP.


The xtrap model thing is an oletime WU fave. (joke)
But I would love to see an hour by hour XTRAP of Mat while he was doing his loop. LOL!
Been lurking the past few days but this storm is too crazy not to comment on. This storm is starting to look really impressive right now. I think we are seeing some intensification at the worst time if the pressure drop is anything to go by.
The models moved west from the Carolinas south--but tilted east and south above that. GFS looks more like the Euro on that leg. Local mets not sold on Matt hitting New England.

Good for me if it holds, but I also have family in Florida.
Quoting 1232. MAweatherboy1:

Recon confirms strongest winds are a ways removed from the center now, with an expansion of the higher wind radii. Pressure down a bit as well, with the top winds similar to before, down just a hair if anything. All telltale signs of an EWRC, and an efficient one at that.

You can see that clearly on satellite, wind field is slowly expanding. Absolutely the worst-case scenario smh...
1253. ncstorm
A lot of rain for the east coast..

1254. Wowiii
Hearing the pressure may have dropped but showing the same now
1255. JLPR2
935mb with Matthew, so I guess this is Matt's steering now:



Which would explain its NE wobbles.
1256. robj144
Quoting 1243. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


So new jersey is long overdue?


Didn't you have Sandy?
1257. Grothar
Something is afoot with these models.

1258. nash36
This explains the NNE movement; note- the GFS and the ECMWF show the NNE movement through Haiti, so this is not unexpected.

I have had many close Haitian friends in the past, and few in the present, and I pray and hope that their families who remain on the Island will make it through this storm; God Speed and Bon Chans.
1260. Wowiii
And NNE AT 8 mph
1261. wpb
looks as though they missed the center of eye lowest pressure had a 25 mph wind.
next pass maybe they will have a perfect drop
1262. nash36
And the NHC had this movement in the forecast as well.

Pretty much right on track.
Expect a Hurricane watch to be issued from Florida City northward to Vero beach likely tomorrow morning . Tropical storm watch will likely be issued from Florida City to Islamorada in the Florida Keys .
1264. Patrap
Quoting 1257. Grothar:

Something is afoot with these models.




I see wat u did dere.


😁






Quoting 1159. HiWay58:

*gulp* Does anyone else see what appears like potential RI again? Those flare ups of the twin and the south west side are very impressive, and if it did a EWRC, it was very fast because the eye does appear to have changed but cleared out very quickly. The recon is already seeing a expanded wind field that would support this.


Unfortunately, yes. However, it may manifest itself more as an expansion of the windfield as opposed to just spinning up the center. Cat 5 seems likely, but the hurricane force winds are going to reach Jamaica. A vort-cane no more ...
Quoting 1258. nash36:

This explains the NNE movement; note- the GFS and the ECMWF show the NNE movement through Haiti, so this is not unexpected.



Wish it was moving faster and head out to sea. But unfortunately that steering pattern will change because of the slow forward speed.
1267. hmroe
Quoting 1255. JLPR2:

935mb with Matthew, so I guess this is Matt's steering now:



Which would explain its NE wobbles.


What will stop the NE movement then?
Quoting 1252. Ricki13th:


You can see that clearly on satellite, wind field is slowly expanding. Absolutely the worst-case scenario smh...

Odd, to watch a catastrophe unfolding in slow motion. Then consider reports where people refused to evacuate and such... rightnow, winds picking up, howling, lightning, then suddenly water on your doorsteps ... However, worst case would mean that a big quake goes off near Puerto Rico's fault line creating a tsunami. Since a month there is a tremor swarm, today 5 tremors so far. http://earthquaketrack.com/p/puerto-rico/recent
Surprised by that update. I do think the wind field has expanded some.
1270. SLU
03/2345 UTC 16.2N 73.5W T6.5/6.5 MATTHEW -- Atlantic
934mb from dropsonde with 4kt winds - Link
Quoting 1222. Clearwater1:

Storm W is a pretty good guy. A navy met (ret) . who is big on plotting storms based on wind steering patterns among other things. Pretty good at it too. Has his own site now, that he runs part time. But, if you were not around when he was an active member, you cannot appreciate how nice a guy he is. Smart too. I learned a lot from him. Now jfv, the shower curtain guy was a different story all together. Plotted storms on one of those shower curtains with a drawing of world map on it. . . or so he said at one point.


Sorry but that dude is seriously creepy. May know his stuff but rather not support a site of his.
Will we eventually see an even further westward shift in the model tracks? Possibly even into the Gulf of Mexico?
934... horrible for Haiti.
1275. Patrap
AF306 Mission #18 into MATTHEW
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 00:00 UTC Oct 04, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 16.00N 75.30W
Bearing: 225 at 167 kt
Altitude: 3075 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 58 kt at 303
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 995.8 mb







Quoting 1257. Grothar:

Something is afoot with these models.




Do you think a landfall along the coast is becoming likely at this point? I certainly think even if its offshore there will be major problems along the coast Fla to NC.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 0:07Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 23:43:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1637'N 7439'W (16.6167N 74.65W)
B. Center Fix Location: 172 statute miles (278 km) to the SE (124) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,536m (8,320ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 117kts (~ 134.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NE (51) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 145 at 129kts (From the SE at ~ 148.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (53) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 934mb (27.58 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10C (50F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16C (61F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15C (59F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest, SW
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 120 to 300 (ESE to WNW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 129kts (~ 148.5mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (53) from the flight level center at 23:37:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 255 at 4kts (From the WSW at 5mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18C (64F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the SW (225) from the flight level center

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAGGED EYEWALL WITH KYDNEY SHAPED EYE
Looks like the models are shifting east now. Or am I wrong?
Nothing much has changed since the 5 PM except for the direction. I guess it didn't get the Recon data.
Quoting 1269. ryanstacos88:

Surprised by that update. I do think the wind field has expanded some.


In all likelihood. Vortex message shows elliptical eye 26mi x 15mi... noted remark of kidney shaped eye, and ragged.
1281. hydrus
Quoting 1262. nash36:

And the NHC had this movement in the forecast as well.

Pretty much right on track.
Hello Nash.. The NHC is doing a great job. They always do in my book...I wonder if anyone here remembered my forecast track for this hurricane.
Quoting 1237. Icybubba:



A category 6 would be worst. :P
Ok now I am going to go jump off a bridge for that awful joke

Patricia would probably be a category 8 on that scale!
Quoting 1278. connie1976:

Looks like the models are shifting east now. Or am I wrong?


All of the latest models that came in continue to shift west. None have shifted east
Yes you appear to be incorrect.
Quoting 1278. connie1976:

Looks like the models are shifting east now. Or am I wrong?
Quoting 1279. ThisIsNotSparta:

Nothing much has changed since the 5 PM except for the direction. I guess it didn't get the Recon data.


They will only update the forecast cone at 11p, 5a, 11a, 5p
Quoting 1222. Clearwater1:

Storm W is a pretty good guy. A navy met (ret) . who is big on plotting storms based on wind steering patterns among other things. Pretty good at it too. Has his own site now, that he runs part time. But, if you were not around when he was an active member, you cannot appreciate how nice a guy he is. Smart too. I learned a lot from him. Now jfv, the shower curtain guy was a different story all together. Plotted storms on one of those shower curtains with a drawing of world map on it. . . or so he said at one point.


One day I would love to hear the StormW story and why he got banned. If someone can post it or email it to me that would be greatly appreciated!
Quoting 1279. ThisIsNotSparta:

Nothing much has changed since the 5 PM except for the direction. I guess it didn't get the Recon data.


I was just going to post this, strange.
It also relaxes trucking regulations statewide on weight etc so crops can be harvested and trucked to market, puts in place price gouging laws statewide, allows the National Guard to be deployed and a number of other items, including permission to have a firearm under certain circumstances.
  • Quoting 1218. Bigwinds:

Here is a link to the law which gives the Governor extraordinary powers (it is essentially a proclamation of martial law) and by calling it catastrophic, it is a formal request for U.S. military aid.

http://www.leg.state.fl.us/statutes/index.cfm?App _mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=0 200-0299 /0252/Sections/0252.36.html

Many of the assets which would be utilized are from Pensacola Naval Air Station; and regulatory/administrative/statutory issues are determined in Tallahassee. Although it may not be technically necessary to include those Counties, it avoids possible legal challenges to certain actions, etc.

It is not a statement about what Counties will be affected (as far as i know). Whenever I have seen it, even for Tropical Storms, it has been a Statewide Declaration. One hurricane season, the entire state was under a declaration for virtually the entire hurricane season, and almost until the end of the year.
1289. Wowiii
Quoting 1265. HighOnHurricanes:



Unfortunately, yes. However, it may manifest itself more as an expansion of the windfield as opposed to just spinning up the center. Cat 5 seems likely, but the hurricane force winds are going to reach Jamaica. A vort-cane no more ...


Those eastern storms seem to intensify after the sun goes down.
Quoting 1229. ACreativeName:

Is the process of expanding winds done or is it just starting (from the EWRC)?


Haven't looked much (and with a football game to watch this is my last post for a while) but I do know that typically the windfield does spread out after these cycles. So maybe.
Quoting 1247. Beachfoxx:

LOL I remember us all watching the ant mounds!


Ants, schmants. I watch da fiddla cwabs. When deh climb da tree, da big booma comin.
1292. IDTH
Quoting 1275. Patrap:


AF306 Mission #18 into MATTHEW
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 00:00 UTC Oct 04, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 16.00°N 75.30°W
Bearing: 225° at 167 kt
Altitude: 3075 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 58 kt at 303°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 995.8 mb









Did I read that correctly? 150?
Definitely another shift left coming at 11. Center of cone should be coming very close to the S/Central Florida coast.
Quoting 1280. ecflweatherfan:



In all likelihood. Vortex message shows elliptical eye 26mi x 15mi... noted remark of kidney shaped eye, and ragged.


Likely still finishing up the EWRC. With recon we'll be able to see it complete in real time!
Yikes
954mb (28.17 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 26.0°C (79°F) 90° (from the E) 90 knots (104 mph)
925mb 271m (889 ft) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 23.4°C (74°F) 95° (from the E) 143 knots (165 mph)
850mb 1,010m (3,314 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 20.7°C (69°F) 125° (from the SE) 154 knots (177 mph)

700mb 2,682m (8,799 ft) 14.4°C (57.9°F) 14.3°C (58°F) 140° (from the SE) 94 knots (108 mph)

1296. Patrap
Good evening everyone! Reporting in from Little Exuma, Bahamas! 23.45n 75.65w. We've been watching it for over a week now and preparing as best as we can. We trust no 'canes coming from the south! Lili in 1996 and Sandy were lessons well learned.
To anyone else in Jacksonville: At what point would you hit the road West on I-10?
Quoting 1278. connie1976:

Looks like the models are shifting east now. Or am I wrong?

No the system has been moving NNE since this afternoon. Recon has only confirmed it. There is no model that has shifted. Edit: the storm was moving NNE but appears to be moving more Northerly as more satellite frame comes in.
1300. beell
Perhaps a sign that the A/B ridge is lifting/sliding east a bit in the upper-right corner of this loop (NW of 98L). A shift in the flow towards the NNW.

Still the same 78-79-78 W pattern from Thurs. - Sat. Notice that the angle of expected movement along the Florida coast has never exceeded the declination angle westward of the landmass of Florida itself, indicating to me that Palm Beach/Martin/St. Lucie are probably under the highest risk given the best information so far.
Quoting 1292. IDTH:


Did I read that correctly? 150?


That's some sort of glitch that happened when they were changing altitude on the way and recorded a surface wind of 147kts lol. Highest measured winds so far have been 112-119kts in Matthew.
Here ya go dry air source.



Directly from the mts of S America.

Just as the eye was the most exposed on its North side.
Big gulp disruption just after.
This is only a blip for this storm and an EWRC has probably started but Dry air was infused into the center of Mat.


1304. ncstorm
18z GFDL Ensembles.

Quoting 1284. jordan1tylerr:

Yes you appear to be incorrect.



Thank you! I was looking on the weather underground page and the models looked more east to me, but I have no idea what I'm talking about, so I asked.
Quoting 1247. Beachfoxx:

LOL I remember us all watching the ant mounds!



Hi Foxx, oh yes the old days on WU, when we watched the insects for guidance!!!! Good to see another old timer here tonight.
Quoting 1294. Envoirment:



Likely still finishing up the EWRC. With recon we'll be able to see it complete in real time!


For sure. Be cool if they had the radar on it too.
1308. guygee
Even if the eye does not make landfall, the interaction of the eyewall with the mountainous terrain will be catastrophic.
Quoting 1210. birdsrock2016:



Are u from Boca Raton? If so, me too!!

You have mail.
The westward trend continues..
Quoting 1304. ncstorm:

18z GFDL Ensembles.


Quoting 1306. seflagamma:




Hi Foxx, oh yes the old days on WU, when we watched the insects for guidance!!!! Good to see another old timer here tonight.

I keep getting picked on for talking about the behavior of the animals. But really, it has been a little off around here.
8:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 3
Location: 16.6°N 74.6°W
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
StormW used to like to private message the other members...
Quoting 1299. Ricki13th:


No the system has been moving NNE since this afternoon. Recon has only confirmed it. There is no model that has shifted.

Thank you! :) I appreciate the help.
Gamma, I know you are prepared..... Oh yeah! We used to watch the size and number of acorns too!
Matthew is seriously huge, covers over 700 miles... I just hope all Floridian are paying attention to this one.
Quoting 1306. seflagamma:




Hi Foxx, oh yes the old days on WU, when we watched the insects for guidance!!!! Good to see another old timer here tonight.
Quoting 1311. SecretStormNerd:


I keep getting picked on for talking about the behavior of the animals. But really, it has been a little off around here.



What is going on there?
1317. Wowiii
Now they are releasing 934mb
the model consensus showed a n/nne component today and eventually a n/nnw as it crosses the windward passage into eastern cuba.



Quoting 1299. Ricki13th:


No the system has been moving NNE since this afternoon. Recon has only confirmed it. There is no model that has shifted. Edit: the storm was moving NNE but appears to be moving more Northerly as more satellite frame comes in.
1319. nash36
Quoting 1279. ThisIsNotSparta:

Nothing much has changed since the 5 PM except for the direction. I guess it didn't get the Recon data.


Direction changed, but it was modeled and forecast by the NHC to move on a NNE pattern until it clears Haiti. They've done a fantastic job.
Buying all my supplies and bringing all the furniture in tomorrow here in Lauderdale By The Sea. I am not sure if I live in an evacuation zone or not...
Storm W, a blast from the past, just a footnote in WU history
SSN,
I do believe animals can give us a warning if we pay attention to the signs!
Quoting 1311. SecretStormNerd:


I keep getting picked on for talking about the behavior of the animals. But really, it has been a little off around here.
1324. vis0
FROM DR/ Masters/Mr. Henson's #3458 pg3::
Quoting 126. stoormfury:


Very large wave over central Africa, exactly the same area where Matthew originated. This could be the O storm

IF YOU ARE IN THE TS WATCH / WARNING AREAS, SKIP THIS COMMENT
its 2330UTC...
This wave when in Eastern Africa reach almost as far north as what became 2016MATTHEW in northern-eastern Sudan (tried to post an aniGIF but for
once error was on my image hosting sites, it was late i was dozing off so it never was uploaded (will post if IT becomes a TS).
2016Karl
reached the midpoint of Libya border touching Sudan, Matthew reached a bit more Northward almost to Egypt southern border (East to Libya) and
this latest formation reached to the right angle of SE Libya.

BUT IMPORTANT
is that these reached at 3 specific Mb heights as to moisture content reaching a saturation up to the lower third in each sat reading(for that area lower third is a lot, not a parking lot TWI) .
EXAMPLE
in the BTD readings the BTD reached -15 (negative fifteen). Does this mean anything, i think certain years it means more than other years,
this was/is one of those wxtrend periods it means something as far as TS.

HERE THAT aniGIF HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH 2016MATTHEW was from period ending of August 2016 to start of September 2016/  It
deals with my imagined invention SO IGNORE THE TEXT, this is just one of the 3 SAT imagery types in this example  i
overlay to show the further northward moisture flow at 3 specific heights/Millibars. (i highly recommend freeware "NOMACs"  to play GIFs, very smooth
even on large quantity GIFs. Want to try this yourself? go to http://www-angler.larc.nasa.gov/ and have fun BUT NOT if your in the
danger zone of any watch/warned weather event, in those areas be listening to official alerts, save the link for a quiet day.

Of 7 moisturized areas that fit my explanation above 6 became TS, 3 Hurr only 1 that has not is this one coming off western Africa, can't count it either way
till it completes its journey over the ATL be it sheared off to Europe or does nothing crossing ATL or becomes a TD...

BTW i'm worried as to earthquakes for the next 3-4 days, have sent official some EMails hope i'm wrong as noticed as other members have
some activities which are not out of the norm but i'm getting a bit of a feeling in reading my imaginary devices readouts. PRACTICE yer Quake
Drills it won't hurt to do so.

Lets observe..huh? why is no one looking at Eastern ATL...oohhhhhhh it MATTHEW still a"round"?

If none of the above makes sense, i won't feel bad i have company cause to many MATTHEW don't make sense.

READ OFFICIAL STATEMENTS
Quoting 1298. Aeropsia:

To anyone else in Jacksonville: At what point would you hit the road West on I-10?

I live 4 miles from the coast on the marsh in the NE side near the power plant and I'd be strongly considering if it was a Cat 3....looking like low 2 or a high 1 by the time it gets up here so I'd say im keeping a concerned eye on it but if it looses strength to a 1/2 I wouldn't go west....
Quoting 1311. SecretStormNerd:


I keep getting picked on for talking about the behavior of the animals. But really, it has been a little off around here.


Hi SSNerd, us oldies here from the original 2005 blogs (but we watched here before the blogs) always had comments about the critters! It is natural. I saw some of your comments and agree with them.
The animals know before we do when something happens.... Our Florida IBIS are the last birds to flee before a hurricane and the first to return after the storm... they are the U of Miami Mascot for a reason. Good to have you aboard.
5 and a half inches in an hour ..wish i could have been there. 
Quoting 1256. robj144:



Didn't you have Sandy?

Sandy was post tropical. but it got people sort of ready for something bigger. Like if sandy did not happen and matthew made landfall, people would have know idea what to do. Now they have some idea.
Quoting 1243. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


So new jersey is long overdue?


Did you forget about Sandy already?
Quoting 1297. ExumaMET:

Good evening everyone! Reporting in from Little Exuma, Bahamas! 23.45n 75.65w. We've been watching it for over a week now and preparing as best as we can. We trust no 'canes coming from the south! Lili in 1996 and Sandy were lessons well learned.


stay safe there and keep us posted if you can. You and your families safety is most important.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1303. QueensWreath:

Here ya go dry air source.



Directly from the mts of S America.

Just as the eye was the most exposed on its North side.
Big gulp disruption just after.
This is only a blip for this storm and an EWRC has probably started but Dry air was infused into the center of Mat.




Here ya go the WV (Water Vapor) loop which tells there's plenty of moisture which explains the 5mb drop from the last advisory.
Quoting 1259. weathermanwannabe:

I have had many close Haitian friends in the past, and few in the present, and I pray and hope that their families who remain on the Island will make it through this storm; God Speed and Bon Chans.


Mesi beacoup
1334. ProPoly
Quoting 1267. hmroe:



What will stop the NE movement then?


That pattern isn't static. The ridge builds back in.
Quoting 1313. MidnightExpress007:

StormW used to like to private message the other members...

He private messaged me, but was always nice.
Quoting 1315. Beachfoxx:

Gamma, I know you are prepared..... Oh yeah! We used to watch the size and number of acorns too!
Matthew is seriously huge, covers over 700 miles... I just hope all Floridian are paying attention to this one.



You know it Foxx.... we know the routine and how to get it done.... been here done that many times before....
18z GFDL has also come westward. So a definite westward trend today tomorrow will be key.
Quoting 1273. pureet1948:

Will we eventually see an even further westward shift in the model tracks? Possibly even into the Gulf of Mexico?

Bite yer tongue, we don't need Andrew and Katrina flash backs at this point in time :)
Quoting 1316. Hurricanes101:




What is going on there?

I think I am where you are.
Becoming a Five again??



Quoting 1291. SavannahStorm:



Ants, schmants. I watch da fiddla cwabs. When deh climb da tree, da big booma comin.

grothar must of seen the dinos roaring before the storm!

Quoting 1200. redwagon:



Whomever brought up StormW needs to be taken out back and given a blindfold and a smoke.

We should be concentrating on the risk to Mar-a-Lago ;)
It was me and I apologize.  Back to lurking for another 5 years.
The NHC's prediction of 8 to 12, isolated 15"of rain for the Bahamas would surely place Matthew within the top 10 wettest cyclones in their history, #10 currently is 1965 Betsy with 8.15". If Matthew produces upwards of 15 inches, he could end up being in the top 3. Even scarier are the predicted storm surge heights, 15+ feet across several locations there. While everyone is (rightfully) focused on Haiti for now, I wonder if the island chain isn't in for one of the worst hurricane experiences they've had for a long time.
Quoting 1297. ExumaMET:

Good evening everyone! Reporting in from Little Exuma, Bahamas! 23.45n 75.65w. We've been watching it for over a week now and preparing as best as we can. We trust no 'canes coming from the south! Lili in 1996 and Sandy were lessons well learned.
Hope you are all able to stay safe. This is a scary one.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2016 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 16:31:33 N Lon : 74:34:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 926.6mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -18.8C Cloud Region Temp : -75.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Quoting 1311. SecretStormNerd:


I keep getting picked on for talking about the behavior of the animals. But really, it has been a little off around here.


Really the behavior of animals can tell you something if you listen close. You arent crazy
Quoting 1323. Beachfoxx:

SSN,
I do believe animals can give us a warning if we pay attention to the signs!



I concur. I think there are a couple problems though. At what point do they start warning? What do you "look" for? And most importantly, how much attention were you paying in the same time period in previous years when there was no threat. As far as ants, they are suspect because they can indicate previous rainfall as well. Big rains usually cause them to build big mounds. I think that part of the problem is that our models have gotten to the point where they would generally outperform any animal behavior model?
1348. Crazman

North Palm Beach county here, if anyone needs help preparing let me know!
Quoting 1326. seflagamma:



Hi SSNerd, us oldies here from the original 2005 blogs (but we watched here before the blogs) always had comments about the critters! It is natural. I saw some of your comments and agree with them.
The animals know before we do when something happens.... Our Florida IBIS are the last birds to flee before a hurricane and the first to return after the storm... they are the U of Miami Mascot for a reason. Good to have you aboard.


The Ibis were in very large numbers over here. Not seen such gatherings in years.
I totally forgot about the shower curtains. This blog has entertained and educated me for over 12 years now since I found it in 04 during Frances and Jeanne

Quoting 1167. itsprkles:

Looooong time lurker here. I remember StormW... and I remember JFV too. This blog was so entertaining back in the day! (Where is that guy and his shower curtain these days...)
1351. hmroe
Quoting 1293. MiamiHurricanes09:

Definitely another shift left coming at 11. Center of cone should be coming very close to the S/Central Florida coast.


What has changed?
Quoting 1339. SecretStormNerd:


I think I am where you are.


I live on the West Coast of Florida
Quoting 1309. SecretStormNerd:


You have mail.

Jupiter here! Going to try and keep the weather station online as long as I can!
Stay safe!
Www.jupiterwx.com
1354. Grothar
Quoting 1247. Beachfoxx:

LOL I remember us all watching the ant mounds!


FOXX!! Glad to see you. Yes, I'm still alive.
Quoting 1289. Wowiii:



Those eastern storms seem to intensify after the sun goes down.


If you are referring my post earlier regarding Matthew's blob buddy, they seem to increase just before or as Matthew is intensifying as well. However, since it it does have to with airflow coming off of land over water, sundown may play a part as well. Out of my expertise, unfortunately :(
In three hours the NHC is again the eastern side of guidance.



1357. hmroe
Quoting 1340. EyewallPaul:

Becoming a Five again??






I don't see any at 137k...?
Quoting 1354. Grothar:



FOXX!! Glad to see you. Yes, I'm still alive.

Sorry, that made me laugh. Long time lurker Grothar and I'm always amused by your one-liners ... live over off A1A south of Oakland Park Blvd so just an eye on things ... good to see all the people coming out of the woodwork!
1359. beell
Just no good solutions here for Haiti, the T&C's, The Bahamas, and some portions of the US coast. Even with the ridge pulling back to the east, it returns. Possibly a small nugget of hope that it buys the SW SE coast a bit of sea room-possibly. But it builds right back.

The next trough may want to ride/crest the ridge up north. In fact, it may push up and build the ridge ahead of it. Serving to strengthen the portion of the (same) ridge forecast to build north of Matthew.

Quoting 1344. TropicTraveler:

Hope you are all able to stay safe. This is a scary one.


We got this. The settlement I live in is high enough to not be bothered by a storm surge thankfully, but there are quite a few areas on our south side that I fear for. A lot of expensive homes no more than 2-3' above sea level built overlooking the bonefish flats that dominate the southern banks.
He's no longer the tiny little Cat 5 he use to be. Windfield has expanded considerably over the past 24hrs. I'm also not sure he can complete the EWRC before the Windward passage. Interested to see what kind of impacts that has on him post Cuba.
I feel physically sick to my stomach seeing those pressure and wind readings from Recon. This will undoubtedly be a historically devastating storm for Haiti. Hopefully it weakens before landfall.
1363. scott39
My dad lives in Melbourne Fl. He is older than Gro and tracks hurricanes on the back of an old Publix paper bag.
1364. Zaphod
Amazing how many oldtimers from 2005 are still around!

For those along the path from Florida to NC, don't panic, but do react early. Everybody should stock up on the basics as early as possible, as there WILL be a run later.

Fill the car and an extra can of gas NOW, so the stations have time to resupply. Buy your flashlight and batteries, bottled water, and canned food too -- all of this will get used eventually, so there is no harm in going first.

Everybody should get extra phone charging mechanisms -- the little alcohol gizmos, or solar. And some LED lights. A little bit of power goes a LONG way when the lights go out!

Depending on your budget, you could buy a generator, and get spare oil filters and oil, plus some more gas. If you're close to the coast, and don't have wood to cover your windows, make a plan. Get a tarp or two and some rope, too, for make-shift repairs.

If there are tree limbs you've been meaning to cut, or trees too close to your house, this is a great excuse to get a chainsaw. Use it now while the ERs are pretty empty, and the docs aren't too tired.

Get some beer too, so when everybody else panics later, you can sit back and enjoy.

Above all, remember the mantra -- RUN from water, HIDE from wind. Leave early if you're in a flood-prone area, or if you simply have a decent place to go. It'll be WAY easier to head to the other coast of FL - sideways to the path - than to run all the way up to Alabama or Georgia. If you're on the road the last 24 hours, expect to have no gas, no place to stay, and blocked highways.
Big shift W on the BAM S & M. The D is pretty much unchanged up through the Bahamas. I expect the 00z GFS and other models to be very similar to the 18z with a possible minor shift to the E. I wouldn't think the S or M would be the proper BAM for the situation?
Quoting 1357. hmroe:



I don't see any at 137k...?


No not yet but it seems to be deepening again
Quoting 1358. iamajeepmom:


Sorry, that made me laugh. Long time lurker Grothar and I'm always amused by your one-liners ... live over off A1A south of Oakland Park Blvd so just an eye on things ... good to see all the people coming out of the woodwork!


Nice, Im east oakland park. Getting hosed right now, nice lighting show.
Quoting 1362. VegasRain:

I feel physically sick to my stomach seeing those pressure and wind readings from Recon. This will undoubtedly be a historically devastating storm for Haiti. Hopefully it weakens before landfall.

For sure. On google earth a lot of it is far above sea level by 30+ feet. There is a 7700 foot mountain there too "Pic Macaya" Might take something out of Mat. I've never head of high elevation stories, I'd imagine the wind is a lot stronger at 100+ feet. Let alone thousands.
He closed his eye, where will it open back up? Back to the west in the center?
Imo, Matthew in its current state is a much more dangerous storm compared to even when it was at Cat5. Much larger wind field and winds are on the increase. Would not be surprised to see it get to Cat 5 again before landfall sadly.
Geez - there's that one area of DR called Bani that keeps getting pummeled by red bands over and over in recent frames.
Looking strong, think the eye is gonna become bigger tonight, very strong convection to the north and south. Anyone have the link to the onboard radar on the Hurricane Hunters.
1375. SLU
03/2345 UTC 23.1N 60.0W T2.0/2.0 98L -- Atlantic

Not sure if that's overlayed radar or fancy graphics.... It's closing in it appears.
1377. Prouss
1331. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:24 PM EDT on October 03, 2016
0 +
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Action: Quote
His slow forward speed is really dangerous about Matthew
Dropsponde shows winds at around 139 kts at the 928 mb height. Considering the pressure is at 954 mb at sea level that is extremely close to the ground.
1381. VVokes
I have been actually lurking on here since 2006. I live the Palm Beach area and don't actually see much of a change in the direction of N movement from what's been prodicted for the last few days. I know the cone has changed slightly bit but honestly the center seems pretty much the same.
Quoting 794. UKHWatcher:

"So Hillary won the election after the massive Government aid thrown into Florida in the aftermath of the complete devastation caused by Hurricane Matthew ploughing through Miami and then stalling and retrograding Tampa and into the Gulf, swung the state by just 0.2% in her favour. Giving her the EC votes needed to overhaul Trump's seemingly unstoppable support."

I may as well post this now, as it may be current news by the time it appears on the blog. 22.08 U.T.C. Monday 3rd October

P.S. Seriously if they can't fix this blog in the next day, I'd be surprised if it has any credibility or perceived value within a week.

Additional: They patched it! I am still seriously worried it's just a patch.


At least the ignore list is working fine. Congrats, #242
1384. BCastro
Matthew looks like a WPAC super typhoon at this point.
1385. vital1
Quoting 932. IDTH:


This is definitely useful but I'm having trouble finding one that explains it. Could someone assist me?

IKE house didn't even convince him.


Screw him. It's called natural selection. Just make sure what his wishes are if they find his body, wish him luck and fist bump him goodbye. Oh yeah, remind him that nobody will answer 911 to come rescue him after the winds reach 45 mph.
We will leave our webcam up and running until we loose power on Exuma on Wednesday evening. IEXUMAEX6
I live in Melbourne, just had the trees trimmed last week at the house.... good timing? I hope my preventative maintenance has some value...
Quoting 1363. scott39:

My dad lives in Melbourne Fl. He is older than Gro and tracks hurricanes on the back of an old Publix paper bag.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/20 16_14L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_07.gif
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 OCT 2016 Time : 024500 UTC
Lat : 16:49:10 N Lon : 74:39:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 923.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.5C Cloud Region Temp : -75.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 117km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.7 degrees

************************************************* ***
1390. MZT
Ugh. If that path pans out, the winds from the southeast (rounding the north of the storm) will plow straight into Charleston harbor.
And remember that Haiti has widespread deforestation, which will likely increase the impact of landslides, flooding, and wind.
1392. ncstorm
Good Morning everyone,

00z Euro Total Rain precip map..

This is just not good for eastern NC as we are 150-200% above normal for rainfall