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Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1502. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
12N, 35W, You're correct, no shear maybe until 52W, if it persists..... What's your opinion???


It has the right ingredients along with some model support, but it is a very small feature and those tend to be fragile.
But could it develop? Yeah, sure...
"Ants have been a major factor in air conditioner failures. Service personnel in Texas have reported that fully one third of all summer repairs stem from ants shorting out terminal blocks. They also have been found to have set up housekeeping in televisions, well pump controls, telephone junction pedestals, airport runway lights, utility watthour meters, electrical plugs and lamp sockets, computers, and transformers-where they prefer to nest on the high-voltage side. Why are imported red fire ants attracted to electric fields? No one is yet ready to offer a theory. But biologist Dr. William P. MacKay of the University of Texas at El Paso and entomologist Professor S. Bradleigh Vinson of Texas A&M have succeeded in eliminating a number of possible factors.
They have found fire ant behavior does not correlate with a-c frequencies, or with the presence of ozone, electromagnetic or magnetic fields. Nor is the type of insulation used on wiring a factor. In tests up to 140V a-c and 350V d-c, both attracted almost the same number of ants at the same voltage and distance. However, they did find that when electricity was turned off, ants attracted to d-c power dispersed more rapidly than those who had been experiencing the nirvana of an a-c source. While the Texas researchers still don't understand the reasons why the ants have a fatal attraction to electric fields, they have been able to devise successful control techniques. Based on their studies, they recommend using terminal cap protectors to prevent bridging, and denying entrance to the insects by enclosing mechanical relays in metal or plastic cases and sealing them, as well as all entrances to padmounted equipment, with epoxy cement. In laboratory tests, silicone rubber sealants and roofing cement proved ineffective."

Conclusion - They want to reach NIRVANA
1504. flsky
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


No. Enlighten me, please.

Helicopters, jets etc, etc, in front of the Hilton, over the ocean on 10/9-10/10. Free parking in the structure or just park on the beach!
1506. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:


PGI48L, CATL low, and no, that was the first glass in awhile!
*nose grows* LOL!


Keep that up and you will be drinking out of a bowl. LOL
1507. xcool
huh 889 huhuhuh
1508. 7544
wheres that gfs
1510. xcool
in moon
1505. xXJasonisdumbmanXx 5:08 AM GMT on September 27, 2010

889? LMAO

um no it shows up as 985mb, still pretty strong though
is Tampa Bay even at risk for this upcoming system?
Lets just start hitin that (!) button.
Should solve the problem!
Quoting xcool:
in moon
seems like South Florida is getting all the attention. how strong is the trough supposed to be?
05:01

1516. xcool
HA
Quoting sunlinepr:
"Ants have been a major factor in air conditioner failures. Service personnel in Texas have reported that fully one third of all summer repairs stem from ants shorting out terminal blocks. They also have been found to have set up housekeeping in televisions, well pump controls, telephone junction pedestals, airport runway lights, utility watthour meters, electrical plugs and lamp sockets, computers, and transformers-where they prefer to nest on the high-voltage side. Why are imported red fire ants attracted to electric fields? No one is yet ready to offer a theory. But biologist Dr. William P. MacKay of the University of Texas at El Paso and entomologist Professor S. Bradleigh Vinson of Texas A&M have succeeded in eliminating a number of possible factors.
They have found fire ant behavior does not correlate with a-c frequencies, or with the presence of ozone, electromagnetic or magnetic fields. Nor is the type of insulation used on wiring a factor. In tests up to 140V a-c and 350V d-c, both attracted almost the same number of ants at the same voltage and distance. However, they did find that when electricity was turned off, ants attracted to d-c power dispersed more rapidly than those who had been experiencing the nirvana of an a-c source. While the Texas researchers still don't understand the reasons why the ants have a fatal attraction to electric fields, they have been able to devise successful control techniques. Based on their studies, they recommend using terminal cap protectors to prevent bridging, and denying entrance to the insects by enclosing mechanical relays in metal or plastic cases and sealing them, as well as all entrances to padmounted equipment, with epoxy cement. In laboratory tests, silicone rubber sealants and roofing cement proved ineffective."

Conclusion - They want to reach NIRVANA



thats interesting. I had thought it odd over the years. It attacks carpenter ants as well as tiny sugar ants. Ill try to seal it better.
Quoting flsky:

Helicopters, jets etc, etc, in front of the Hilton, over the ocean on 10/9-10/10. Free parking in the structure or just park on the beach!


Too cool! Not sure if my schedule will allow it. Would love to be there for that. Lucky you. I groove on air shows. Got a pic of an F-16, I shot in Stuart, FL. You should be able to see it, if you click on my handle.
1520. dmaddox
Quoting cirrocumulus:
05:01

matthew may come back for an encore...
1521. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Keep that up and you will be drinking out of a bowl. LOL


XD
I should consider that if I'm close to the bed. LOL!
Quoting kshipre1:
is Tampa Bay even at risk for this upcoming system?


Florida is under risk of severe weather from the front passing through now. The remnants of Matthew and whatever is down there could be coming this way with development over the next several days also.

I haven't seen any real solid outlooks for the coming week. Best to keep checking.

does anyone in here know if Tampa Bay is still at risk for anything? Or is this mostly confined to a south florida event?
1524. jonelu
bored....models are sooo aggressive...have been for almost a week now...and we got nada...So I came down to KW and its gorgeous.
ok, thanks
ok, thanks
1528. flsky
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Too cool! Not sure if my schedule will allow it. Would love to be there for that. Lucky you. I groove on air shows. Got a pic of an F-16, I shot in Stuart, FL. You should be able to see it, if you click on my handle.

I haven't been to an air show since I lived in CA.
In my area, there seems to be many. Locally, in Spruce Creek Fly In, people have hangars for their planes! Get buzzed quite often by these guys!
Quoting jonelu:



Wow, way to bring the heat. Can you call someone a name or something?
1531. xcool
1533. JRRP
Quoting flsky:

I haven't been to an air show since I lived in CA.
In my area, there seems to be many. Locally, in Spruce Creek Fly In, people have hangars for their planes! Get buzzed quite often by these guys!


Yeah, the Fly-in's, are getting popular in my neck of the woods too.
1535. flsky
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Yeah, the Fly-in "Ranches" are getting popular in my neck of the woods too.

Where are you located?
Quoting flsky:

Where are you located?
Port St. Lucie. Grothar was right on.
up to 30% for our caribbean system

expect an invest soon

also 10% in the CATL
That Tampa Bay weather info. says that the weak cold front is going to stall..... monday night..... Can we assume that N GOM waters are going to be less conductive to storm development because of that cold front interaction???
One can see the blowup in convection once Matthew moved offshore.
1540. dmaddox
Can someone post a link or a picture of current steering? TIA
Holy Smokes!

1543. boyzNme
Quoting flsky:

Hope you know about the Embry-Riddle event coming up soon in front of the Ocean Center on the beach!


Hey!! I'm a Riddle alumni. It sure has grown up since I graduated. I went to the homecoming about 5 yrs ago and couldn't believe how much it has changed. Hope you have fun!!!!
Well, heading to bed. I need sleep. Hope you all have a good night!
1547. xcool
that 10% is cmc storms




1548. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
that 10% is cmc storms






And nogaps and EURO XD
Hate trolls that use other people's handles to make fun of them. Flagging every one. Asking admin to wipe other handles using that IP as well.

Just wrong.
1550. mbjjm
The first system might be a tropuical storm , but the second storm could be worst



cmc showing the 2nd storms which moves throught the Central Carib, cross ECuba through the Bahamas and near South Florida.






1552. boyzNme
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hate trolls that use other people's handles to make fun of them. Flagging every one. Asking admin to wipe other handles using that IP as well.

Just wrong.


flagged by me as well
1553. mbjjm
Nam 0z
1554. JLPR2
Another area of spin has developed ahead of 48L, near 48W, 10N.

Good Evening Night Crew

This degree of uncertainty in the tropics is interesting in that there is so much potential but limited development. Strange and perplexing.

On another note, my neighbour came across the back lane to yell at a red squirrel, who was "treed" by one of our cats in our maple tree and was making a racket. After a time, the neighbour calmed down, and promptly went to her yard and started up the leaf blower. Is there something wrong here?

She also threatened to use her bow and arrow and told me that red squirrels taste better than the gray ones. Nice.

Just wanted to share. Carry on....

Oh right...we have been at the very top of the front that will affect the steering pattern perhaps, and it's been cold and rainy up here. Watching with interest.
1556. xcool
hmm
72F and over an inch of rain so far.

And just yesterday I was ready to replace all the shrubbery with cactus.

(Oops - forgot - That would be Panama City, FL)

1558. mbjjm
Euro -Oper 0z

2nd system (shown East of the N. Leeward Islands) will move through the Caribbean before being darwn to the North to The Bahamas/ S.Fl as being shown on the cmc


1559. xcool


1560. xcool
mbjjm old old
1561. xcool
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hate trolls that use other people's handles to make fun of them. Flagging every one. Asking admin to wipe other handles using that IP as well.

Just wrong.


It is wrong.
1563. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:


It's up to 120hrs, waiting for 144hr. :\
1564. mbjjm
Looking at all the models , The Bermuda Azores High will build from the US to Spain and be strong up to 1030mb. Any thing that develops east of the Lesser Antilles will be pushed into the Caribbean and Once Ity gets into the Caribbean It will be pulled north towards the Bahamas/S.Florida and Con Us
1565. xcool
oh .
1566. 34chip
So what type of weather are we in for in Key West, Florida. Thanks!
1567. xcool

1568. xcool
my bday come soon.
1569. dmaddox
we got an Invest yet in the NW Caribbean ?
1570. mbjjm
Quoting 34chip:
So what type of weather are we in for in Key West, Florida. Thanks!


Partly cloudy with afternoon showers and thunderstorms .The rest depends the track on the low pressure area/ potential system.
Quoting dmaddox:
we got an Invest yet in the NW Caribbean ?


Floater 1 is assigned to Matthew, other three are showing "Not Active".

So my guess would be, not yet.
1572. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
my bday come soon.


huzzah! XD

Also, EURO develops 48L but keeps it weak until it gets to the north of PR where it starts to develop, also something passes through Florida.
Quoting JLPR2:


huzzah! XD

Also, EURO develops 48L but keeps it weak until it gets to the north of PR where it starts to develop, also something passes through Florida.

PR have none hurricanes this year!!
1574. JLPR2
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:

PR have none hurricanes this year!!


So far...
I don't like saying anything till Christmas! XD
1575. xcool
EURO shows lows in cab
Good morning. The set-up appears in place to make the SW FL, GA, SC, NC. VA and northward a "bowling alley" for tropical systems or tropical moisture to be shot up the Eastern Seaboard.

This reminds me of the early 1950's when Hazel, Carol and Edna literally raked the Eastern Seaboard, scary scenario is setting up!!

Stay tuned as our insane 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season continues!!!
1577. mbjjm
weather Documentary back from Hurricane Hugo



Link
1578. JLPR2
Well I'm off, night/morning all!
The SW Gulf of Mexico and the Western Caribbean are boiling with convection!!!!

This is remnant Low Matthew below!!!

Our future Invest and next "N" storm
1580. dmaddox
Quoting dmaddox:

Well, looks like the drought will be over for FL and portions of the Eastern Seaboard.

Looks like there may be at least one, possibly 2 or more tropical systems sail up the FL to ME corridor. Things are going to get real real ugly. At the minimum, flooding will be widespread up and down the E Coast.

IF these impulses are strong TC's there is going to be a BIG mess for many many people!!
1582. dmaddox
Houston Hobby is in the 60's for the first time in 130 days... (May 20th was the last time).. hmmmm.... i got my jacket on! keep those systems away from TX! LOL
1583. 34chip
Quoting dmaddox:
If Key West got 10inches of rain we will be under water a few days or more.
Quoting dmaddox:
Houston Hobby is in the 60's for the first time in 130 days... (May 20th was the last time).. hmmmm.... i got my jacket on! keep those systems away from TX! LOL

I am in Arlington, TX we are at 59F at he moment. I left work at 12:45am and used the heat in my truck!!
1585. dmaddox
Quoting Bordonaro:

I am in Arlington, TX we are at 59F at he moment. I left work at 12:45am and used the heat in my truck!!
BRRR! fall is here! Finally!
Quoting dmaddox:
Houston Hobby is in the 60's for the first time in 130 days... (May 20th was the last time).. hmmmm.... i got my jacket on! keep those systems away from TX! LOL


Lol. Not just me then. SmileyCentral.com
1587. dmaddox
As Emeril Lagasse would say on his cooking show, "BAM"!!


Hot off the press as of 2:15 PM CDT :O)
1589. dmaddox
someone is angry:




1589..Matthew is angry because he was called a "remnant Low" and the AOI in the W Caribbean in angry because many say, "Oh, nothing will develop that is much of anything".
Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport
Lat: 32.91 Lon: -97.03 Elev: 560
Last Update on Sep 27, 2:53 am CDT

Fair

56 F
(13 C)
Humidity: 72 %
Wind Speed: N 8 MPH
Barometer: 30.02" (1015.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 47 F (8 C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History

Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport 02:53 Fair 56 47 72 N 8 30.02
Dallas Love Field 02:53 Fair 57 48 72 N 6 30.02
Dallas Executive Airport 02:53 Fair 56 48 75 N 6 30.01
Grand Prairie Municipal Airport 02:47 Fair 57 48 72 N 9 30.04
Collin County Regional Airport 02:53 Fair 53 49 86 NW 3 30.02
Arlington Municipal Airport 02:53 Fair 56 49 77 N 8 30.02
Denton Municipal Airport 02:53 Fair 52 50 93 NW 5 30.04
Fort Worth Alliance Airport 02:53 Fair 57 49 74 NE 6 30.02
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport 02:53 Fair 54 49 83 N 6 30.02
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station 02:52 Fair NA NA NA N 7 30.07
Mineral Wells Airport 02:53 Fair 55 51 87 N 3 30.02
Terrell Municipal Airport 02:53 Fair 55 47 74 N 5 30.01
Gainesville Municipal Airport 02:43 Fair 54 48 82 NW 3 30.07
Waco Regional Airport 02:51 Fair 57 51 81 N 7 30.02
1592. barbamz


Good morning. CV-Railway isn't closed yet, it seems ...
Quoting barbamz:


Good morning. CV-Railway isn't closed yet, it seems ...

The Western Caribbean will be a Tropical Cyclone/Tropical Moisture feed all the way from near Honduras to Maine in the USA..
Reporting myself back to the blog safe and sound after mathew some minor damages and few deaths so thats was a close one.

Thxs everybody for all the support on saturday morning in me decisions on travel
canadian is picking up on some development that might affect the windwards later in the week there is a few areas in the mdr that are staarting to look interesting
1597. dmaddox
Bad News:
FLORIDA LOOKS TO BE IN THE TARGET SEVERAL TIMES. YIKES

Link
This model shows a storm giving S.W Cuba an extra cleaning.

Link
1600. 34chip
Quoting RotorYacht:
This model shows a storm giving S.W Cuba an extra cleaning.

Link

That bring it right up to Key West is that a hurricane and if so how strong.
Follow Levi32's Blog and he will break it all down for you. He should have a new update today sometime so keep checking in later. As for those systems being hurricane(s) I would put a pretty good bet that one will roll through South Florida before the end of this season. As Levi32 mentions in his blog over and over that the earth has to get rid of the heat in the Carib. so standby for a storm to do just that.

Link

Quoting 34chip:

That bring it right up to Key West is that a hurricane and if so how strong.
1602. 34chip
Quoting RotorYacht:
Follow Levi32's Blog and he will break it all down for you. He should have a new update today sometime so keep checking in later. As for those systems being hurricane(s) I would put a pretty good bet that one will roll through South Florida before the end of this season. As Levi32 mentions in his blog over and over that the earth has to get rid of the heat in the Carib. so standby for a storm to do just that.

Link


Thanks! I live in Key Wesy so it sounds like we have lots of rain ahead of us. Let's hope it does not becaome a hurricane, but we shall see.
Good Morning all. This low pressure over the Caribbean just exploded in the last couple of hours... since the 2AM... wondering how much closer this is to becoming an invest.
Quoting dmaddox:
Bad News:


couldn't read how far out this model is at the bottom... is this what the model is saying about the current Caribbean low?
Quoting whepton3:
Good Morning all. This low pressure over the Caribbean just exploded in the last couple of hours... since the 2AM... wondering how much closer this is to becoming an invest.


Probably whenever the next model run is we'll get invest status. There is no real clear cut status to get an invest, they've declared them overland before, but usually whenever it hits 30% you get an invest.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Probably whenever the next model run is we'll get invest status. There is no real clear cut status to get an invest, they've declared them overland before, but usually whenever it hits 30% you get an invest.


thanks... I've always wondered if there are st criteria for an invest status or if it is a subjective thing by the NHC.
1607. dmaddox
Quoting whepton3:


couldn't read how far out this model is at the bottom... is this what the model is saying about the current Caribbean low?
300 hour... valid Oct. 9 @ 12z...
Buoy 42056 bp 29.66 and fallen fast. ESE wind 24kt.
1609. dmaddox
maybe the GFS was right all along:
They seemed confused there still is a invest number associated with ex-matt. This shows Matt coming back across the Yucatan to where the lowest pressure in the nw Caribbean presently is. I think it's two separate systems I guess we will find out later today.
1611. alcomat
Quoting cirrocumulus:
05:01

Ex=Julia still sneaking up on Bermuda.
Matt still seems mostly together if he gets into the Gulf could he form? what track would our future invest take?
Put the money on the table: do both of there areas... remnant Matthew and this new thing for two storms or do they get together?
1615. alcomat
remember the comment from saturday,'its getting ripped apart,and its not going into the boc' that was from a few well known bloggers on here.looks like I might be right, matthew is really firing convection,and is almost in the boc! let the crow fly!!!
1616. bjdsrq
Quoting RotorYacht:
Follow Levi32's Blog and he will break it all down for you. He should have a new update today sometime so keep checking in later. As for those systems being hurricane(s) I would put a pretty good bet that one will roll through South Florida before the end of this season. As Levi32 mentions in his blog over and over that the earth has to get rid of the heat in the Carib. so standby for a storm to do just that.

Link



That link shows a ~14 y/o kid and a blog updated Saturday. Take it for what it's worth.
1617. aquak9
Good Gaea on a Bike. What a mess.

good morning my beloved friends who are lurking. I might get rain?

Hey Ike, I got 0.45 last night!
1618. alcomat
thats easy to answer,according to all the florida members,anything that forms,either in the atlantic,gulf,or carribean,will be headed to florida. they are on a wishcasting roll,and believing in models that are 244 hours out..lol
1619. aquak9
Quoting bjdsrq:


That link shows a ~14 y/o kid and a blog updated Saturday. Take it for what it's worth.


errr...he's 17, he's already CLP'd his way thru a coupla years of college, and probably one of the best teachers we have here.
Quoting bjdsrq:


That link shows a ~14 y/o kid and a blog updated Saturday. Take it for what it's worth.


Your an idiot kid.

Right to the ignore.
Good morning, aquak9 and all else. It seems so strange to read 'no tropical activity in the Gulf or Atlantic'. We didn't make it down into the 50's, but are a respectable 63. Beautiful outside!
Looks like the local guys here in S. FL are calling for stormy, windy weather for the end of the week. They seem to think this will be a tropical depression or less unless things really change... but bring some heavy rain thru Palm Beach Co. Thur.-Sat.
1624. 34chip
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
428 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010
AN EASTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTH
FLORIDA REGION...WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO FEED
NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHILE A MUCH DRIER CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS FILTERS SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST. THIS SCENARIO PRESENTS A
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE KEYS...AS OUR WEATHER REGIME WOULD
VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED SETS UP. THE BULK OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH THE
ECMWF (WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE) NOW
ALLOWING NORTHERLY FLOW AND A DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE KEYS
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS EVENTUALLY EJECTING NORTHWARD FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE
POPS OF 50 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN REDUCE
POPS A BIT TO 40 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS...WITH HIGHS
STILL REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 80.
Good morning.

No storms in the Atlantic, how bizarre after the latest run. Well, for the time being, anyway. Maybe tomorrow, the next issue will arise.

Any reports on what Matthew has inflicted?
Quoting bjdsrq:


What do you expect? Most are kids and want a day off from school.


He lives in Alaska so I'm pretty sure that didn't influence the forecast.
Quoting alcomat:
thats easy to answer,according to all the florida members,anything that forms,either in the atlantic,gulf,or carribean,will be headed to florida. they are on a wishcasting roll,and believing in models that are 244 hours out..lol


You know something? I see what your saying, but I don't see it. I haven't seen any wischasting going on, what I have seen are people like you that just come out of no where and say 'wischaster you say Florida hit' well sorry to break it to you.. this is a blog, it is not to be taken seriously.
1628. dmdhdms
1629. bjdsrq
Quoting 34chip:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
...WITH THE ECMWF (WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE) NOW
ALLOWING NORTHERLY FLOW AND A DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE KEYS
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.


... and if you look at the water vapor loop, you see the ECMWF may be on to something. That dry air is already half way across the FL panhandle.
1630. marmark
Quoting aquak9:


errr...he's 17, he's already CLP'd his way thru a coupla years of college, and probably one of the best teachers we have here.
Agree!
I was just staring at former Matthew again... almost hypnotically... it almost looked like it's trying to get wrapped back around itself again... especially on its western side.
1632. bjdsrq
Quoting JupiterFL:


He lives in Alaska so I'm pretty sure that didn't influence the forecast.


...wasn't referring to him. Was referring to the masses of FL school kids on this blog.
Well, look at that. Somebody's getting some nice weather. Not me, but... good morning!


Quoting bjdsrq:


... and if you look at the water vapor loop, you see the ECMWF may be on to something. That dry air is already half way across the FL panhandle.


Ecmwf is out to lunch. Gfs, nogaps and cmc look more credible at this point in time
On the 6Z NOGAPS, 2 systems want to affect the lesser antilles.
1636. ackee
seem like the CV seasns is not over there two low one near CV another near the Island see the CMC devlops it 96 guess we see
Quoting weatherwart:
Well, look at that. Somebody's getting some nice weather. Not me, but... good morning!




lol hopefully we'll get some too.... it's too boring for late sept in the E carib
I think a more eastward track is in store than what the models are showing... the trof along with its dry air have already crossed into Florida and show no sign of slowing down. I think this may be a Miami, then out to sea sort of deal.
1639. surfmom
Good Morning - getting my bearing in here
MTYSPDR - good to see you SAFE

Carib looks like a Cauldron of festering trouble, looking forward to see what Levi32 has to say

Morning Aqua perhaps
& the Matt came back
they thought he was a gonner
but the Matt came back

LOL - okay no tune in the AM - back to slurping the coffee
GFS develops the CATL LOW and moves it trough the northern leewards... then just north of PR, hispaniola,... then over the Bahamas then toward FL. Well that's a new solution from the GFS
morning everyone looks like our disturbance is firing convection near the center
1642. aquak9
hi surfmom, aislnipss, wart,jupiter- all my friends'n'fiends...

not feelin' much interest in any sorta development. Rain for Orlando, southward. Not a wind over 28mph between now and next Sunday.

There, I just saved everyone a day of blogging.

hahaha- work calls!
morning all, we should have an invest by 8:00.. its at 30% right now
From the S. FL area discussion:

BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, A TROPICAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA AND SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH. THE MODELS HAVE DISPLAYED
CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE A STRONG TROPICAL SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY, IT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF TRANSPORTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE,HEAVY RAIN, AND PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS SLOWER
LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTH AND IS ALSO STRONGER THAN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST. IT APPEARS MOST PLAUSIBLE THAT TWO TO THREE WAVES OFDEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
1645. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I think a more eastward track is in store than what the models are showing... the trof along with its dry air have already crossed into Florida and show no sign of slowing down. I think this may be a Miami, then out to sea sort of deal.


Miami. Maybe but out 2 see I don't think so. The high to the east is way too strong
I don't believe I have ever seen a trof like that plunging so deep into the Gulf this time of year.
Quoting aquak9:
hi surfmom, aislnipss, wart,jupiter- all my friends'n'fiends...

not feelin' much interest in any sorta development. Rain for Orlando, southward. Not a wind over 28mph between now and next Sunday.

There, I just saved everyone a day of blogging.

hahaha- work calls!


Don't work too hard. Try to stay dry.
Quoting mcluvincane:


Miami. Maybe but out 2 see I don't think so. The high to the east is way too strong

i agree, dont just look at the trough, you have to take a look at the high to the east.
Quoting aquak9:
hi surfmom, aislnipss, wart,jupiter- all my friends'n'fiends...

not feelin' much interest in any sorta development. Rain for Orlando, southward. Not a wind over 28mph between now and next Sunday.

There, I just saved everyone a day of blogging.

hahaha- work calls!


And I thought I left early for work! Have a great day, Aqua.

Morning WxLogic.
Quoting whepton3:
From the S. FL area discussion:

BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, A TROPICAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA AND SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH. THE MODELS HAVE DISPLAYED
CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE A STRONG TROPICAL SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY, IT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF TRANSPORTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE,HEAVY RAIN, AND PERHAPS A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS SLOWER
LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTH AND IS ALSO STRONGER THAN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST. IT APPEARS MOST PLAUSIBLE THAT TWO TO THREE WAVES OFDEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.


That's looking to be the reasonable forecast, but then again, you never know with these things. We do have some significant low pressure, convection and a very hot bathtub sitting below a descending trof. Anything can happen.
Quoting aquak9:
hi surfmom, aislnipss, wart,jupiter- all my friends'n'fiends...

not feelin' much interest in any sorta development. Rain for Orlando, southward. Not a wind over 28mph between now and next Sunday.

There, I just saved everyone a day of blogging.

hahaha- work calls!


Looking that way. FLweatherfreak is probably right about a little further east for most of the moisture.
1653. hydrus
Quoting weatherwart:


That's looking to be the reasonable forecast, but then again, you never know with these things. We do have some significant low pressure, convection and a very hot bathtub sitting below a descending trof. Anything can happen.
NWS has a low right over South Florida on day 6...
1654. surfmom
Hey Aislinn -off to work, My early BARN day -got to beat the heat, I'll be feeling 90's on the other side of I75 Good Monday to all
Quoting weatherwart:


That's looking to be the reasonable forecast, but then again, you never know with these things. We do have some significant low pressure, convection and a very hot bathtub sitting below a descending trof. Anything can happen.


I thought so too... it seems to ride the line between everything. Rain and a little wind is a safe bet. I actually heard one of the local guys use the term "reasonable" when describing all this. I do find it mildly ironic that after all the models and all the conjecture for weeks about this happening in the Caribbean, now that the systems are here the NHC and the NWS don't quite know what to make of them. I guess that's why nuthin's for sure when it comes to the tropics.
1656. FLdewey
NWS MLB...

ED-SUN...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME BECOME
GREATER AS TIME GOES ON. CONSENSUS GOOD THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA MID WEEK FROM NW CARIBBEAN AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES. GFS INDCATES A SURFACE LOW NEAR SRN KEYS WED MORNING WHILE
THE NAM/ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR WRN CUBA AT THIS TIME. THE
ECMWF DRIFTS THE LOW TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THURS MORNING
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THE
LOW NE THEN HAS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NRN BAHAMAS
EARLY FRI. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS CONFIDENCE IN
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LOW. HAVE INDICATED ENHANCED POPS THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN TRENDED BACK A BIT UNTIL SIGNALS BECOME CLEARER...BUT
KEEPING SCATTERED POPS IN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALSO HAD TO
DAMPEN OUT WIND FIELDS FROM THE GFS WHICH TRIES TO SPIN UP A FEW
SURFACE LOWS NEAR NW CARIB AND LIFTS THEM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

Sounds like Florida kiddies might be crushed with disappointment...
Morning, Surfmom. Have a great day and drink lots of water! Our high is supposed to be in the mid eighties, a nice break from the ninties.
Some good news in that It appears that overall the GFS has backed off some of the activity for florida, at least on this run. Though not real important, the intensity of a couple of the systems is reduced and most notable is the lack of a system (previously a hurricane) towards the end of the run.

Quoting hydrus:
NWS has a low right over South Florida on day 6...


Oh yeah. My local mets are saying that by week's end, an area of low pressure bringing heavy rains, some wind, but not the scary hurricane scenario. You know as well as I, all that could change. Day 6 models and all...
hmmm, kinda sad day when you think of the mid-eighties as 'cool'.
Well, I'm off to work as well, my classroom awaits me. Have a great Monday everyone!
Ok, what's with the three white dots in the gulf?



Link
boy is this blog less active than what it used to be. Significantly less posting.
Much need rainfall over the southeast CONUS



1666. QMiami
1667. scott39
Goodmorning Floridians
1669. Patrap
Schweeeeeeett..


Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 13 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
70.0 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 80%
Dew Point: 64 °F
Wind: 3.5 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 8.7 mph

Rain chance of 80% and 90% Tuesday and Wednesday for south Florida...
1671. 7544
looks south of cuba looks like yesterdays nam could be right 96l latter today this could ramp up fast as we see it buliding lots of conv. now as it should move north no shear in the fla straights no dry air this could get stronger as it get drawn north to so fla dont let your gaurd down keep two on eyes on system developing right now one
1672. Patrap
GOM IR Loop dee Loop


1673. scott39
Quoting Patrap:
Schweeeeeeett..


Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 13 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
70.0 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 80%
Dew Point: 64 °F
Wind: 3.5 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 8.7 mph

Nice in LA too!
1674. scott39
Quoting scott39:
Nice in LA too!
LAL that is
18Z GFS at 180 hours out...



I'd be more curious to see if and when the NHC finds a TD out of the system as opposed to orange or even red blobs.

Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop dee Loop


Looks like a twist right off of Cozumel.
1677. P451
Getting much needed soaking rain in NJ this morning.

A little OT but a serious flooding event is unfolding in Wisconsin: Link

And then we have our WV Imagery of the region: 12 hour Loop. A lot of moisture in the Caribbean however there is nothing organized. It will take a day or two of festering for something to really spin up I would think. We also just hit DMax in the region so let us see how this convection evolves as we start heading back towards DMin throughout the day - will it persist or will it wane with the diurnal cycle?





1678. scott39
Quoting P451:
Getting much needed soaking rain in NJ this morning.

A little OT but a serious flooding event is unfolding in Wisconsin: Link

And then we have our WV Imagery of the region: 12 hour Loop. A lot of moisture in the Caribbean however there is nothing organized. It will take a day or two of festering for something to really spin up I would think. We also just hit DMax in the region so let us see how this convection evolves as we start heading back towards DMin throughout the day - will it persist or will it wane with the diurnal cycle?





How deep is that trough forecasted to dip down in FL?
1679. surfmom
Quoting barotropic:
boy is this blog less active than what it used to be. Significantly less posting.
Perhaps quality over quantity?
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning Floridians

Good beautiful Monday morning from delightful Dunedin, Florida! War Eagle! Tigers are #10!
1681. Patrap
Quoting surfmom:
Perhaps quality over quantity?


Always a good thang .
Quoting Abacosurf:
Looks like a twist right off of Cozumel.


Looks like a low level broad circulation in that are which can be seen well with the shortwave loop (speed up and zoom in).
Link
Quoting barotropic:


Looks like a low level broad circulation in that are which can be seen well with the shortwave loop (speed up and zoom in).
Link


Just in case here is Link to shortwave. Zoom in and speed up to see circ off cozumel.
1684. P451
Looks like a Winter Storm!

6 Hour WV Loop:

1685. P451
Quoting scott39:
How deep is that trough forecasted to dip down in FL?


According to the HPC by day 6 it should be 1/3rds down the peninsula. North of Tampa. It should kick out to sea rather quickly whatever does form in the NW Caribbean and potentially affect South Florida.
1686. scott39
Quoting P451:


According to the HPC by day 6 it should be 2/3rds down the peninsula. South of Tampa, north of Naples. It should kick out to sea rather quickly whatever does form in the NW Caribbean and potentially affect South Florida.
Thanks
1687. srada
Quoting mcluvincane:


Ecmwf is out to lunch. Gfs, nogaps and cmc look more credible at this point in time


Our local NWS in NC is going with the ECWMF and not the GFS

BUT CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION. GRADIENT SUGGESTS SPEEDS NO GREATER
THE 15 KT...THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF SPEEDS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
IF ANY SURFACE WAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GFS CONTINUES TO
MOVE DEEPENING LOW IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT NOT
READY TO BELIEVE IT. FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS A MUCH
WEAKER WAVE AND RESULTS IN SPEEDS JUST SHORT OF SCA THRESHOLDS WED
NIGHT. SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...HIGHEST TUE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
So, we finally have a nearly stationary disturbance in the NW Carribean, over extremely deep, warm waters at the right time of year and yet indications are that it won't amount to much. This just goes to show that TCHP isn't worth anything if the atmospheric conditions aren't there and they just aren't for the most part this year.
Relatively low shear may play into the development of this today



1691. scott39
Hopefully the season will end with no hurricane strikes to the US.
1692. beell
Quoting P451:
Looks like a Winter Storm!

6 Hour WV Loop:



It sure does!
Thanks for the loop.
1693. tkeith
Quoting surfmom:
Perhaps quality over quantity?
wish I would have posted that comment.

cool air?......I has it :)

You're doing better than we are here in the Charleston area, Patrap. Tstorms and downpours waking us from a sound sleep, some flooding in the usual suspect spots--and the forecast is for more of the same plus maybe some tornadoes this afternoon and evening.

Dropped in to see if anyone was remarking on our weather--would appreciate any input on that tornadoes forecast.
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
17.23N/81.19W
Quoting Abacosurf:
Looks like a twist right off of Cozumel.


Some indication of that from Cuban Radar but one could also say.... nah.
Quoting dmaddox:
maybe the GFS was right all along:
....I was thinking the exact same thing,that area was festering offshore south of cozumel,max.....hope everyone has their popcorn
And soda,the actions about to start and the next 96hrs should've very intersting....thinking invest status by 11am,they might wait until the h get some data first
Reguardless if a tropical cylcone develops in the NW Caribbean Sea in the next day or so southern Florida can expect copious amounts of moisture to channeled northward.

It appears that the western Caribbean Sea will be ripe for tropical formation for next 4 weeks.

I would not be surpised at all that when it is all said and done that we get 2-3 named storms out this area by November. Including a Wilma or Mitch like hurricane.
Morning peeps!

Man, what a great weekend for thunderstorms down here. Looks like Matthew put some leftovers on the stove and the pot's about to boil over...the convection is popping right now!
Amen to that!

Quoting Patrap:


Always a good thang .
Are there any forecasts for the cold front entering Florida?

So far, I've seen on the NWS Ruskin site that they are expecting it to advance to a line running from say Fort Myers up to Cocoa Beach...

Any idea how strong it will stay, will there be a reinforcing shot of cold air behind it? Needless to say, this will have a major impact on the path any proto-Nichole takes to the north...
New Blog
1703. 7544
yeap its starting to form and is blowing up at a good speed now if we can get a invest tag that would help so fla to be on alert as it would show the track but i think we all know where its going coffee time
I'm not a doom caster by any means, but I am wondering, is there a potential for any type of rapid formation possible with this "disturbance"?
1705. WxLogic
Quoting TampaTom:
Are there any forecasts for the cold front entering Florida?

So far, I've seen on the NWS Ruskin site that they are expecting it to advance to a line running from say Fort Myers up to Cocoa Beach...

Any idea how strong it will stay, will there be a reinforcing shot of cold air behind it? Needless to say, this will have a major impact on the path any proto-Nichole takes to the north...


Currently the Mid to Upper level low over MS/AL should starting cutting off in the next 12 to 24 hours. This will allow it to meander across the a region encompassing MS/AL/GA. The associated "cold" front which associated air mass has modified quite a bit should stall across the NFL area. Don't expect it to clear through the state completely and taking all the moisture away for the time being, but in my opinion a line from KFMY to KJAX should be a good divisor of the Wet pattern to the E and drier to the W.

Of course all this will be dependent on the strength and position of the cuff off low as a further W position will favor a wetter pattern for the FL Peninsula and N across the E CONUS and a more E position will favor E FL Peninsula and most of the wet pattern staying offshore up to the E CONUS Coast.
1706. beell
Quoting OctaviaStreet:
You're doing better than we are here in the Charleston area, Patrap. Tstorms and downpours waking us from a sound sleep, some flooding in the usual suspect spots--and the forecast is for more of the same plus maybe some tornadoes this afternoon and evening.

Dropped in to see if anyone was remarking on our weather--would appreciate any input on that tornadoes forecast.


Amateur guess for greatest tornado threat would be along a SW/NE line over central SC and NC this afternoon. Pretty much smack in the middle of the SPC 5% tornado risk area.

The real deal:



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM N FL/SE GA
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...SE ATLANTIC AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN MS. THE MS
CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT AND EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD FROM ERN ND/MN. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK LOW INVOF THE FL BIG BEND WILL DEVELOP NNEWD ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING...IN
ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING MS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A BROAD MOIST WARM SECTOR IS PRESENT FROM FL/GA NEWD ACROSS THE ERN
CAROLINAS TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 68-72 F ARE COMMON. THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY HAS
BEEN LIMITED IN THE WARM SECTOR THUS FAR AS A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/RAIN AND RELATED POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE
UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL...A CONTINUED INFLUX
OF LOW-MID 70S DEWPOINTS FROM JUST OFFSHORE...AND A FEW CLOUD
BREAKS...COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL WEAK DESTABILIZATION IN THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THE OBSERVED AND FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL FAVOR RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN MULTIPLE BANDS ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS.

MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND RESULTANT
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TODAY IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT...AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTS NEWD. THE
OBSERVED UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY WIND PROFILES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN
THE LLJ EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT ACROSS VA/PA WHEN THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN MORE RAPIDLY TOWARD WRN PA. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS /ESPECIALLY ON
THE FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW/...AS WELL AS BOWING
SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINES/CLUSTERS. DAMAGING GUSTS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
The SW loop shows a pretty defined broad circulation at low level at 19.9N and 86.0w. I think thats the area to watch.
Thanks very much, Beell. Seems an odd time of year for tornadoes. We rarely see them, especially not at this time of year (unless in conjunction with a hurricane or strong TS, of course). To read in the local WU forecast that "some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds and tornadoes" causes me to double-take.