WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Matthew Becomes the Atlantic's First Category 5 Hurricane in Nine Years

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:01 AM GMT on October 01, 2016

Extending a jaw-dropping stretch of rapid intensification, Hurricane Matthew has become the Atlantic's first Category 5 hurricane since Felix in 2007. Matthew's top sustained winds were set at 160 mph in the 11 pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center. The upgrade was based on radiometer-measured near-surface winds as high as 143 knots (165 mph] gathered in a Hurricane Hunter flight on Friday evening. Now located less than 100 miles north of the Colombian coastline, Matthew continues to move just south of due west at about 7 mph.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared satellite image for Matthew as of 11:15 pm EDT Friday, September 30, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Matthew is the planet’s fifth Category 5 storm of the year. The others were Tropical Cyclone Winston, which devastated Fiji in the Southwest Pacific in February; Tropical Cyclone Fantala from May, in the Southwest Indian Ocean; Super Typhoon Nepartak from July, in the Northwest Pacific Ocean; and Super Typhoon Meranti in the Northwest Pacific, which struck the small Philippine island of Itbayat Island while at peak strength in September. Super Typhoon Meranti was the most intense Category 5 of the year, with sustained winds of 190 mph and a central pressure of 890 mb. The globe averages between 4 and 5 Category 5 storms per year.

In records going back to 1924, only five Atlantic hurricanes are on record as having Category 5 strength this late in the year--all of them in the Caribbean, the region where sufficiently warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions are most likely to occur this late in the season. Shown with their date spans at Category 5 strength, these are:

"Cuba": October 19, 1924
"Cuba": November 5-8, 1932
Hattie: October 30-31, 1961
Mitch: October 26-28, 1998
Wilma: October 19, 2005

More background from our earlier post
There's been little change so far in the outlook for Matthew, although we'll be watching tonight's 00Z Saturday model runs closely to see what comes next. Below is more context on Matthew's past, present, and future, mostly brought over from our post earlier this afternoon. We will be posting regular updates through the weekend, typically between 10 am and noon EDT and between 6 and 8 pm EDT. For those new to our blog, the comments section is packed with valuable insights from our many members, including meteorologists as well as dedicated laypeople.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

How did Matthew get so strong so quickly?
Vertical wind shear of up to 20 knots has plagued Matthew for most of the last two days, yet the storm has not only maintained its structure but grown at a ferocious rate. Dissertations may be written on how this happened! Working in Matthew’s favor has been a steadily moistening atmosphere along its westward path, which means that the shearing winds didn’t push too much dry air into Matthew. Once it developed a central core, Matthew was able to fend off the wind shear much more effectively. In addition, water temperatures are unusually warm throughout the Caribbean (and the entire western North Atlantic), with an area of high oceanic heat content directly beneath Matthew’s path. Such deep oceanic heat allows a storm to strengthen without churning up cooler waters from below that could blunt the intensification.

Matthew’s ascent highlights the nagging challenge of predicting hurricane intensity. NHC statistics for the past few years show a steady improvement in track forecasts and much more erratic progress in intensity forecasts (see Figure 2 below). The typical 48-hour track error has been cut in half since the late 1990s, dropping from around 150 nautical miles (170 miles) to around 75 nautical miles today. Meanwhile, the 48-hour intensity forecast error has averaged about 12 knots (15 mph) in the last several years, which is not much better than the 15-knot errors that were typical in the mid-to-late 1990s. Much of that error is the result of just a few rapidly intensifying storms, such as Matthew.


Figure 2. Trends in track and intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for Atlantic hurricanes through 2015. Units are nautical miles (left) and knots (right); add 15% to obtain miles and miles per hour. Image credit: NHC.

Although Matthew strengthened far more quickly than projected in the official outlook--and expected by most observers--there were signs that rapid intensification was possible, as we discussed on Wednesday afternoon. The 18Z (2:00 pm) Wednesday run of the SHIPS statistical model included a 44% chance that Matthew’s strength would increase by 55 knots in 48 hours. In fact, this is exactly how quickly Matthew intensified: from 50 knots (60 mph) at 18Z Wednesday to 105 knots (120 mph) at 2:00 pm Friday. SHIPS is only one tool used by forecasters to assess potential intensity change. Dynamical forecast models were generally less gung-ho on rapid intensification on Wednesday, and even subsequent SHIPS runs pulled back a bit.


Figure 3. Radar image of Hurricane Matthew as seen from NOAA’s P-3 Orion hurricane hunter aircraft at 1:40 pm EDT September 30, 2016. At the time, Matthew was a rapidly intensifying Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD, via tropicalatlantic.com

Figure 4. Visible satellite image of Matthew (1-kilometer resolution) at 1945Z (3:45 pm EDT) Friday, September 30, 2016. The Colombian and Venezuelan coastlines are outlined in yellow. Image credit: CSU/RAMMB/CIRA.


Matthew poses a major threat to Jamaica
Matthew is moving just south of due west at 9 mph. Its location about 75 miles north of Punta Gallinas, Colombia, puts it about as close to South America as any major hurricane is known to have gotten (even about 50 miles closer than 2004’s Hurricane Ivan).

Although Matthew’s westward track will keep it offshore of Colombia and Venezuela, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Colombian coast from the Venezuelan border west to Riohacha. The Columbian coast will remain on the less-intense left-hand side of Matthew, reducing the odds of hurricane-force winds and limiting the heaviest rains. Riohacha’s Almirante Padilla reported sustained winds of less than 20 mph on Friday afternoon.

Models agree strongly that Matthew will begin taking a fairly sharp right turn on Saturday, heading north-northwest through the central Caribbean. Conditions should be very favorable for maintaining Matthew's strength at this point. Wind shear is projected to drop dramatically (perhaps below 10 knots by Sunday), the deep atmosphere will moisten further (close to 80% relative humidity), and Matthew will be passing over waters with extremely high oceanic heat content. Now that Matthew is a Category 5 hurricane, we can expect ups and downs in its strength from day to day as internal processes such as eyewall replacement cycles kick in.

The threat to the Greater Antilles from Matthew is becoming increasingly worrisome. The most immediate concern is for Jamaica, where a Hurricane Watch has been posted. The latest NHC outlook brings Matthew over the eastern tip of Jamaica on Monday afternoon. A westward shift of just 50 miles--well within the range of uncertainty at this point--would put the city of Kingston in Matthew’s dangerous right-hand side. A major hurricane striking Jamaica from the south would be a virtually unprecented event. Figure 5 shows the tracks of all major hurricanes passing over or very near Jamaica since 1851. All of the prior events involved storms tracking on a classic west-northwest path except for an unnamed 1912 hurricane that crossed the northwest tip of the island on a northeast path, then made a 180-degree turn. Among all hurricanes since 1851 (not shown), the only one to have crossed Jamaica on a primarily northward track during the last 80 years is Sandy (2012), which struck eastern Jamaica at Category 2 strength. Sandy caused an estimated $100 million in damage in Jamaica and knocked out power to most of the island. Matthew could be much stronger than Sandy, and a northward-oriented path through central Jamaica could bring a severe storm surge into the highly vulnerable Kingston area.

Next in Matthew’s sights on the NHC-predicted track would be Cuba, whose excellent history of hurricane awareness and preparation would likely reduce potential impacts. Matthew may also be weakened by any direct passage over mountainous Jamaica, although it could easily strike Cuba as a major hurricane.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the western coast of Haiti from Port-au-Prince to the Dominican Republic border. If Matthew were to trend eastward rather than westward, the risk to western Haiti would rise dramatically. Model guidance has trended gradually west over time, which gives some hope that Haiti will escape the worst of Matthew. Still recovering from the devastation of the 2010 earthquake, and plagued with deforestation and poverty, Haiti would be highly vulnerable to the impacts of a major hurricane.


Figure 5. Tracks of all major hurricanes passing within the shaded circle encompassing Jamaica during the period from 1851 to 2015. Each of these was moving from right to left (east to west), except for the 1912 hurricane, which moved east-northeast and then backtracked toward the west-southwest as it weakened. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 6. WU depiction of National Hurricane Center track and intensity forecast for Matthew as of 11:00 pm EDT Friday, September 30, 2016.

Long-term outlook for Matthew
If anything, the prospects for Matthew later next week have become more uncertain over time. Models continue to take Matthew north through The Bahamas, but then we have major divergence among our top models. As just one example, the 12Z Friday operational run of the GFS model pulls Matthew almost due north, slamming it into eastern Maine as a significant hurricane or very intense post-tropical storm by next weekend. In stark contrast, the 12Z run of the ECMWF model strands Matthew in the Bahamas, where it lingers through next weekend and into the following week as a major hurricane. The 12Z run of the UKMET, our other top track model, also stalls Matthew in the Bahamas, then angles it northwest toward the Southeast U.S. coast.

Why such profound disagreement? The simplest explanation is that track errors increase markedly over time, and there is little skill beyond about 5-7 days. In this case, there is a great deal of uncertainty over how the mid-latitude steering features over the United States and the western Atlantic will evolve over the next week. NOAA’s Gulfstream-IV jet has been flying regular missions to sample the environment around Matthew, which has likely led to improvements in the short-term track forecasts. The problem is that the upper-level trough that will be a key influence on Matthew’s track next week is still thousands of miles away--moving through the northeast Pacific, where observations are scarce. It is far too soon to know with confidence how the upper-level features will evolve next week, so we need to keep our expectations very modest for confidence in any East Coast forecast.

The bottom line:

--Matthew poses a very serious risk to the western Greater Antilles early next week.

--A trek over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, Cuba, and/or Haiti would dramatically weaken Matthew. At least some restrengthening would be possible over the Bahamas.

--Matthew could affect any part of the U.S. East Coast from Florida to Maine at some point from the middle of next week into the weekend.

--Long-range forecasts will vary, perhaps several times each day. Because the key features that will steer Matthew are very uncertain at this point, any given model shift may not mean much until the evolution of these features becomes better defined, which could take several days.

Bob Henson


Figure 7. The 70 forecasts from the 12Z Friday European (ECMWF) model ensemble (left) and 18Z GFS model ensemble (right) continued to show a wide variety of solutions for the track of Matthew that pose various threats along the U.S. East Coast. (The tracks from the ECMWF that previously targeted the Gulf Coast have almost completely disappeared.) Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Matthew needs to start the turn now and it's still moving west with wobbles , if he moves past 75w under 15n we have a problem . Let's wait and see
502. ackee
To my untrained eyes Matthew closed it eyes storm looking like it moving back WSW to me
Quoting 446. A4Guy:



The cones are really "updated" at 5:00 and 11:00 (a.m. and p.m.). The 8:00 and 2:00 Intermediate Advisories are just a continuation of the previous advisory.
Check the archive loop and you will see the cone changed slightly from 5am to 8 am, at least to my eye, so... I will believe what my eyes see. Thanks just the same.

Add: Link to NHC 5-day cone graphics archive
Quoting 500. Sfloridacat5:



Matthew has started his turn and has been moving WNW over the past few hours. Levi's site is good information. You can look at the surface plots and adjust the time to see the position of the low.
Link
Not yet the average is still west with a slight jog to the north but let's wait a few frames to see if indeed it's begun the WNW .
505. A4Guy
Continued trend away from Jamaica and FL.

Quoting 504. Seflhurricane:

Not yet the average is still west with a slight jog to the north but let's wait a few frames to see if indeed it's begun the WNW .


Just going by Levi's site. It shows a WNW movement starting at 11z and continuing even more pronounced to 12z.
Quoting 502. ackee:

To my untrained eyes Matthew closed it eyes storm looking like it moving back WSW to me


Well I will say this much. The ridge over the Western Atlantic has been pretty resilient so far...






Quoting 309. VR46L:



I see you are quite new to the blog

Welcome !

There are a couple of Golden unspoken rules here ....

Never downcast _ you will be a outcast
Never say out to sea if there is a minimal chance of landfall
promote the most destructive path for blog harmony


Unfortunately for me. I tend to be a downcaster and those opinions I have learnt are very unpopular .....

How true. And whatever you do, don't say something factual like the NHC's cone of uncertainty has moved this way or that way if it takes a major US area out of the cone. Even if one only has to go the NHC's website to verify the statement and even if you have no opinion one way or the other.
Quoting 503. Barefootontherocks:

Check the archive loop and you will see the cone changed slightly from 5am to 8 am, at least to my eye, so... I will believe what my eyes see. Thanks just the same.


They update where the storm is in the intermediate advisories. They don't change the cone during those advisories. Looks like a minor glitch in the programming they use as there is no actual shift, the 3 day cone just gets slightly larger for no reason. They only shift the cones at 5 and 11 AM and PM.
Quoting 493. hmroe:

Where can I find a record of Matthew's location? Like historical LAT/LON... Seems like he's barely moved in the last 8 hrs.

Wunderground keeps a detailed track list of every storm. Click the [Severe Weather] tab at the top of homepage, then click the [Hurricane & Tropical Cyclones] tab in the drop-down menu. Great archive for research! :)
Link to current Matthew storm: Link
This wouldn't be good

huh?

Where's Grothar?
We need a word for this.

it absolutely drives me nuts watching the models jump around like this. Some will say the models have been consistent with the northward turn blah, blah, blah. I understand its a complex weather pattern but it is not a valid excuse to settle for mediocre forecasting tools. All season we have seen the weaknesses in every forecasting tool we have repeatedly exposed. I have heard meteorologists from the weather channel, local news, NHC, and this blog swear up and down "something" is going to happen and in a head shaking moment hours later be proven wrong. We should not have to sit here and react to models bouncing east and west like its the gospel every run. 75 west, where does the turn happen compared to 75 west? That's what we need to watch and from there does it turn northwestward for a short stint before back to the north east.
515. hmroe
Quoting 498. charlottefl:



Sep 30 0600 GMT 14.1 -69.3 100 979 Hurricane
Sep 30 0900 GMT 14.0 -69.9 100 979 Hurricane
Sep 30 1500 GMT 13.7 -70.8 115 968 Hurricane
Sep 30 2100 GMT 13.5 -71.6 140 949 Hurricane
Oct 01 0300 GMT 13.3 -72.3 160 941 Hurricane
Oct 01 0900 GMT 13.3 -72.8 155 942 Hurricane


Thank you! That confirms.
Levi's plots of the storm

At 10z


At 12z (very noticeable movement to the WNW)
Quoting 512. JrWeathermanFL:

This wouldn't be good




No it SURE wouldn't be!!!! :(
Quoting 508. charlottefl:

Well this much I will say this much. The ridge over the Western Atlantic has been pretty resilient so far...








Really not seeing the sharp turn unless the ridge retrogrades A LOT, quickly.
519. beell
Quoting 513. Chicklit:

huh?

Where's Grothar?
We need a word for this.


Sheared?
Quoting 513. Chicklit:

huh?



It looks weird that's all I know lol
Quoting 471. 999Ai2016:

Link

Storm still moving west based on the new 12z models it needs to be moving WNW/NW in another couple of hours.
522. ackee
Quoting 505. A4Guy:

Continued trend away from Jamaica and FL.

that would be great news Jamaica as always dodge some major bullet many hurricane are normally predicted only ever make Direct hit for that we are very grateful
Oct 01 0300 GMT 13.3 -72.3 160 941 Hurricane
Oct 01 0900 GMT 13.3 -72.8 155 942 Hurricane

Oct 01 5 am Matthew was at 13.3 -72.8 942mb gusts to 155mph
At 8 am 13.4 -73.1 947mb gusts to 165
Quoting 514. SayWhatNHC33:


it absolutely drives me nuts watching the models jump around like this. Some will say the models have been consistent with the northward turn blah, blah, blah. I understand its a complex weather pattern but it is not a valid excuse to settle for mediocre forecasting tools. All season we have seen the weaknesses in every forecasting tool we have repeatedly exposed. I have heard meteorologists from the weather channel, local news, NHC, and this blog swear up and down "something" is going to happen and in a head shaking moment hours later be proven wrong. We should not have to sit here and react to models bouncing east and west like its the gospel every run. 75 west, where does the turn happen compared to 75 west? That's what we need to watch and from there does it turn northwestward for a short stint before back to the north east.

Actually we had a good week with models to tell us a possible tropical storm was going to hit Barbados or The Windward Islands. Then we had almost a week telling us with the GFS no dive towards SA and the EURO with hitting it. We had something in the middle. You need to remember intensity is something never to take as truth (ever). Track, look at all the models, patterns and makes a gauge. I get pissed at TWC also because they sensationalize everything including a named winter storm with 4" max....... But if you look at all the evidence and ignore media for a while you will get somewhat good at getting your own 5 day track that will basically be the same. -The Jungle-
525. MZT
Facebook Live, windy gray morning in Aruba

Aruba Lighthouse Link
526. A4Guy
Quoting 507. GeoffreyWPB:






If anything, there is a northward component to the movement. Definitely not seeing anything southward.
Visible satellite confirms a northerly component now in the movement of Matthew. As the sun comes up a little more we'll be able to track the eye and easily see that the system has begun the turn to the north.
We are looking for a general northward turn around 73 W am I correct? 8 am NHC has coordinated at 73.1. Sonic in understanding correctly, we are now waiting to see what the next direction will be- continuing trend west or beginning a wnw movement?
Quoting 513. Chicklit:

huh?

Where's Grothar?
We need a word for this.

The Mitosis Blob?
Repeating this...storms in this area traditionally go west into Mexico.



The trend slowly to the East continues with the models. The Official NHC forecast now lies to the West of Consensus. If the GFS moves East today look for the NHC to move its track East at 5PM. Looking better for Florida and the East Coast today. Hopefully this will move it away from Jamaica but unfortunately that means Haiti will be bear the brunt. A no win situation there.
Matthew appears to be moving at 275 now, just north of due west, however it's forward speed is still about 7 mph, we'll see how long it takes for a more WNW heading to begin.
One 00z model run is not a trend. The 12 z Euro/CMC/UKMET was further West we need a solid 4-5 runs to be confident.
534. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2m2 minutes ago Walnut Creek, CA
The last time the Atlantic had a Category 5 hurricane prior to #Matthew, Twitter was just one year old (Felix - 2007)
What causes the satellite to rock around sometime on the floater? is just me?
odd lookin hurricane
I think its still moving due west btw
538. SLU
Hurricane MATTHEW
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 01, 2016:

Location: 13.4°N 73.1°W
Maximum Winds: 130 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 947 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Radius of Circulation: 160 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 5 NM
Eye Diameter: 15 NM
Quoting 514. SayWhatNHC33:


it absolutely drives me nuts watching the models jump around like this. Some will say the models have been consistent with the northward turn blah, blah, blah. I understand its a complex weather pattern but it is not a valid excuse to settle for mediocre forecasting tools. All season we have seen the weaknesses in every forecasting tool we have repeatedly exposed. I have heard meteorologists from the weather channel, local news, NHC, and this blog swear up and down "something" is going to happen and in a head shaking moment hours later be proven wrong. We should not have to sit here and react to models bouncing east and west like its the gospel every run. 75 west, where does the turn happen compared to 75 west? That's what we need to watch and from there does it turn northwestward for a short stint before back to the north east.

Although the models have missed the intensity they have not "jumped around" that much relative to the path, especially when viewed as a consensus. I have been focusing on the entry into Cuba from the beginning and there hasn't been much more than a 50 kilometer variance on the consensus forecast of where it will enter the southeastern heel of Cuba over the past 72 hours.

Seems kind of juvenile to complain about forecasting not being perfect.
Matthew looks down to 110-115kt based on recon. There is good agreement it should weaken a little more through tomorrow morning before undergoing another episode of rapid intensification tomorrow night up to landfall in Cuba early Tuesday morning.
Matthew's hurricane force wind field is pretty small. It's possible it could split the difference between Jamaica and Haiti and neither would experience sustained hurricane force winds. Eastern Cuba is another story, they are virtually certain to get a direct hit.

542. wpb
Quoting 512. JrWeathermanFL:

This wouldn't be good

gfs is now the western most model. the other camps are well to the east.win for gfs or another pie in the face.see if it jumps east at 12z or holds out.
543. wpb
Quoting 533. sporteguy03:

One 00z model run is not a trend. The 12 z Euro/CMC/UKMET was further West we need a solid 4-5 runs to be confident.u know your model stuff
544. MZT
If the storm is a little weaker/sloppier today (less veritically stacked) then wouldn't it be less inclined to sense the gap between the highs? Sounds like the potential for a little more westward motion.
Quoting 535. SayWhatNHC33:

What causes the satellite to rock around sometime on the floater? is just me?

It always happens right before it moves the coverage area. I assume it must be some sort of lag or computer glitch. I have never talked to someone from the NHC (seen both locations post and pre Andrew after the fact) That or an alien clearly.
Quoting 543. wpb:





Besides the GFS, the trend of most of the models has been Eastward away from the U.S. the last 24 hours.
Quoting 537. Camerooski:

I think its still moving due west btw


I agree

Quoting 488. hurrikanehunter14:



mail sent to you :)


Back atcha



If this steering does not change, and so far there is no evidence that it will, the current forecast turn will not occur as forecast. IMO there is an increasing probability that Matthew will continue on a more wnw track and NW track towards the NW Caribbean before turning north towards the GOM and the west coast of Florida peninsular.
Quoting 535. SayWhatNHC33:

What causes the satellite to rock around sometime on the floater? is just me?

does that when they are re-centering the screen with the storm movement.
Quoting 532. ElConando:

Matthew appears to be moving at 275 now, just north of due west, however it's forward speed is still about 7 mph, we'll see how long it takes for a more WNW heading to begin.

The longer it takes to turn north, the further west it goes, not good for anyone if that happens (Besides maybe Haiti)
Quoting 548. GetReal:




If this steering does not change, and so far there is no evidence that it will, the current forecast turn will not occur as forecast. IMO there is an increasing probability that Matthew will continue on a more wnw track and NW track towards the NW Caribbean before turning north towards the GOM and the west coast of Florida peninsular.

Honestly not surprising, Matthew is a rebel
Quoting 533. sporteguy03:

One 00z model run is not a trend. The 12 z Euro/CMC/UKMET was further West we need a solid 4-5 runs to be confident.


Matt is likely going OTS..bye bye
554. MZT
Quoting 548. GetReal:

If this steering does not change, and so far there is no evidence that it will, the current forecast turn will not occur as forecast. IMO there is an increasing probability that Matthew will continue on a more wnw track and NW track towards the NW Caribbean before turning north towards the GOM and the west coast of Florida peninsula.
Yeah we're asking that ridge to collapse in short order for this turn to occur. The computers better be on to something that we can't tell from looking at the maps.
On the move.
Quoting 548. GetReal:




If this steering does not change, and so far there is no evidence that it will, the current forecast turn will not occur as forecast. IMO there is an increasing probability that Matthew will continue on a more wnw track and NW track towards the NW Caribbean before turning north towards the GOM and the west coast of Florida peninsular.



LOL. Just like clockwork you are still around with your B.S forecasts!! Havent you learned anything in 10 years! I would bet my entire years paycheck that Matthew will not even sniff the GOM let alone come close to the West Coast of Florida. Dont scare people like that! Geez.
Quoting 497. WeatherkidJoe2323:



True if the northward turn doesn't happen until later 76-77 west that one degree will make a difference but the overall evolution of the pattern will determine the outcome and I think the Euro is sniffing it out best on last nights run, the area of interest to the east of Matthew may break down the Atlantic ridge enough and on top of that a weakness in the NE ridge may happen because of a cut off low hanging out weakening the ridge to allow Matthew to escape out. My opinion right now.


In the scenario where that low from that t-wave weakens the high at one point, but our feature in the northeast isn't as amplified or moves away (a scenario Levi described, though without the t-wave bit), would it temporarily leave room for the high to build before weakening again?

Quoting 479. Barefootontherocks:

You might want to take another look. Slightly east at the end by my eye, over the Greater Antilles. As far as nudged west over S FL... yes, but... and the but is this: S FL needs to be aware of a potential hurricane hit no matter which way the cone inches. My reasoning, this is a major and the path is not clear.

Add: Oops, forgot this. Oops#2, image not "giffing." Here's the Link to NHC 5day cone graphic archive


The track in the middle has more of a NE look to it, though the cone itself coverig more of FL likely due to being closer in time.

000
ABNT30 KNHC 011150
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Five named storms formed in the Atlantic basin in September. One of
these, Matthew, reached major hurricane strength over the south-
central Caribbean Sea. In addition, Hermine, which formed at the
end of August, reached hurricane strength on September 1. Based on
a 30-year (1981-2010) climatology, four named storms typically form
in the Atlantic basin in September, with two or three becoming
hurricanes and one or two reaching major hurricane status.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
activity in the basin so far in 2016 is slightly below normal. The
ACE through the end of September is about 90 percent of the 1981-
2010 median value to date.
Quoting 513. Chicklit:

huh?

Where's Grothar?
We need a word for this.

Looks like maybe ERMC? Maybe it is re organizing and becoming a classic hurricane?
I find it funny how quick people are to snap to a judgement. Calling one model run set a "trend". This is the first set to move eastward, nothing is set in stone yet.
Matthew still quite impressive. Recon finding pressures at 946-947mb and winds still around 120kts (118kt surface wind measured).

He's currently being sheared by southwesterly shear, giving him a rather asymmetrical appearance.



He could also be undergoing an EWRC soon - hopefully we'll get a good microwave pass soon.

If Matthew does undergo an EWRC - he could have enough time to complete it and then strengthen as a large storm on the approach the Jamaica/Cuba/Haiti - especially as he'll start to move over those very warm waters tomorrow:

Quoting 547. win1gamegiantsplease:
I agree

It's still moving in a westward heading. It is moving faster than the NHC cone projected though. Make it to the 6 hour forecast point in 4.5 hours, quite fashionably early.
Quoting 508. charlottefl:

Well I will say this much. The ridge over the Western Atlantic has been pretty resilient so far...
Edit: Sorry guys that image didn't post right for some reason.







Again ridge this year has been persistent. Models often underestimate them. If that high holds I don't see a real turn north until 76-77W that's if it doesn't nose west when it gets the chance.
565. A4Guy
Quoting 548. GetReal:




If this steering does not change, and so far there is no evidence that it will, the current forecast turn will not occur as forecast. IMO there is an increasing probability that Matthew will continue on a more wnw track and NW track towards the NW Caribbean before turning north towards the GOM and the west coast of Florida peninsular.


You should go work for the NHC. I bet they could learn a thing or two from you. Amazing how they just can't see this. Never mind the computer models. I hear those run on TRS-80s from Radio Shack...no wonder they can't see the obvious.
566. MZT
Quoting 564. Ricki13th:

If that high holds I don't see a real turn north until 76-77W that's if it doesn't nose west when it gets the chance.
If the turn begins that late, it could put Turks and Caicos in play... water is insanely hot there.
Hello all-

With the uncertainties with Matthew's tracking once it clears Cuba I will wait for Sunday updates to place some confidence in their solutions. However, I feel the OTS solution after the Bahamas trek.
Quoting 560. Icybubba:


Looks like maybe ERMC? Maybe it is re organizing and becoming a classic hurricane?


Can't tell from that tool, but shear is looking to be a culprit in the appearance.

569. hmroe
Quoting 566. MZT:

If the turn begins that late, it could put Turks and Caicos in play... water is insanely hot there.


The turn has already started.
Also to note, but a large part of Matthews vorticity is over South America now - that could be another reason for the weakening trend:

Quoting 569. hmroe:



The turn has already started.


It is moving west, it has not started turning north yet
Juvenile in 2016 to expect more and want improvements? No. What I am calling out is a want for better forecasting tools or a faster improvement of the current. we have the best minds n the world and a focus on this with funding for 3 months would help this dramatically. If you want to use this one storms model runs as the gold standard for this year or the issues of the past storms go ahead, settle. I wish you were the one forecasting consistently in your track on all news outlets or weather pages. Some like the Euro and only show Euro; and some like the GFS; and only show the GFS; Some are still in love with GFDL and only show the GFDL some explain all the models some do not. Some take all ensembles into play others do not. I think its Juvenile to settle. I don't think perfect in the weather world will ever happen but thinking its juvenile to not want to strive for perfect, that's just pathetic,

Quoting 539. LesBonsTemps:


Although the models have missed the intensity they have not "jumped around" that much relative to the path, especially when viewed as a consensus. I have been focusing on the entry into Cuba from the beginning and there hasn't been much more than a 50 kilometer variance on the consensus forecast of where it will enter the southeastern heel of Cuba over the past 72 hours.

Seems kind of juvenile to complain about forecasting not being perfect.
573. ackee
Poll Time matthew is it a critical latitude that will determine it's impact what direction is matthew moving now in your view ?

A west
B WNW
C wSW
D. Nw
From My NWS
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The long term period continues to remain highly uncertain and
dependent upon the evolution, strength, and track of Hurricane
Matthew including where the northward turn in the central
Caribbean occurs and its forward speed along its track. While the
latest forecast track cone from the National Hurricane Center
continues to remain east of greater South Florida, there continues
to remain much uncertainty in the track, with the 00z GFS slightly
further west and the 00z ECMWF slightly further east with many
ensemble members in between. The ultimate track will be
determined by the relative position of high pressure over the
western Atlantic, and the placement of upper-level lows over the
Gulf of Mexico and northeast CONUS.

At this time, the greatest threat period appears to be beginning
Tuesday, with the length of the threat period determined by how
fast Matthew`s forward speed is. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through the long term period, with
the eventual track of Matthew ultimately determining the areal
coverage of convective activity. It will likely be breezy at times
as well during the long term period, especially along the east
coast.

While there remains a great deal of uncertainty on potential impacts
of Hurricane Matthew for South Florida, a hurricane is likely to be
in or near the Bahamas by Tuesday, so all interest in South Florida
must remain alert. Now is the time to review hurricane preparedness
plans and to make sure your hurricane supplies are fully stocked.
Interests in South Florida should continue to remain well informed
on the forecast regarding Hurricane Matthew with the latest
information from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather
Service Miami.
Quoting 309. VR46L:



I see you are quite new to the blog

Welcome !

There are a couple of Golden unspoken rules here ....

Never downcast _ you will be a outcast
Never say out to sea if there is a minimal chance of landfall
promote the most destructive path for blog harmony


Unfortunately for me. I tend to be a downcaster and those opinions I have learnt are very unpopular .....
Wish I could plus this more than a few times.Said this thing had a chance to miss the U.S thanks to a trough moving through my area and was immediately attacked,humiliated,ganged up upon and banned.I came on the next morning to ask the mods what that was all that about and then I was attacked and banned again.That is the reason I have been staying away from this place and also because I have a life and family.Funny how when people promoting a U.S landfall 200 hours out at the time they were not attacked but say this thing is going OTS and all hell will break lose for you.Will probably be back Tuesday (if the blog hasn't broken down by then) to read up on Dr.M's and Mr.Henson's post.
Quoting 537. Camerooski:

I think its still moving due west btw


Good morning. Its really hard to tell what the true motion is at this time due to wobbles and the eye now becoming somewhat obscured. The second of the two dropsondes from recent recon in the eye was just south of due west from the first drop. Again, is this position due to a wobble with the overall track being west or is there still some component of south of due west occurring ?. The steering still looks intact for more west to wsw today and all we can do now is wait for some sign that the turn has started. When and where may make a huge difference for Jamaica.
Recon was showing a general west/just south of west movement still:

Quoting 513. Chicklit:

huh?

Where's Grothar?
We need a word for this.

That is Sooooo A Snoopy Dog!
Definitely moving WNW now, also dry air is attacking the system from the west.
580. ackee
Quoting 577. Envoirment:

Recon was showing a general west/just south of west movement still:

so I was right when I said I saw WSW movement
Quoting 555. VegasRain:

On the move.



Yes, the center of that low over SE Indiana is clearly moving north in that loop, and the presence of its lower end in the NE GOM is pretty much dissolving before our eyes.... for now.
Quoting 578. Hatterasvillager:


That is Sooooo A Snoopy Dog!


Ha Ha, I see it
Quoting 517. hatrusgirl:



No it SURE wouldn't be!!!! :(

I Agree too!
Quoting 579. Sfloridacat5:

Definitely moving WNW now



recon shows the 2nd fix is slightly south of due west of the first. The storm is wobbling westward overall.
Quoting 577. Envoirment:

Recon was showing a general west/just south of west movement still:



Appears to remain a Cat 4
i'll trust recon.

it ain't moving wnw yet.
588. Ed22
Quoting 562. Envoirment:

Matthew still quite impressive. Recon finding pressures at 946-947mb and winds still around 120kts (118kt surface wind measured).

He's currently being sheared by southwesterly shear, giving him a rather asymmetrical appearance.



He could also be undergoing an EWRC soon - hopefully we'll get a good microwave pass soon.

If Matthew does undergo an EWRC - he could have enough time to complete it and then strengthen as a large storm on the approach the Jamaica/Cuba/Haiti - especially as he'll start to move over those very warm waters tomorrow:


Matthew is doing just that right now so thats why it has weaken just a bit, however after that Matthew will beginning its rapid intensification as it approaches Jamaica.
Quoting 548. GetReal:




If this steering does not change, and so far there is no evidence that it will, the current forecast turn will not occur as forecast. IMO there is an increasing probability that Matthew will continue on a more wnw track and NW track towards the NW Caribbean before turning north towards the GOM and the west coast of Florida peninsular.
Whoa, the change in the steering guidance in past three hours!
0900z product
Quoting 589. Barefootontherocks:

Whoa, the change in the steering guidance in past three hours!
0900z product



The ridge has moved westward in the last few hours. Note where Matthew is, we are losing the WSW component in the steering.
From this morning's NWS MLB AFD,

"A more persistent onshore flow is expected tonight near the coast as the atlc ridge builds back in which should keep low temps noticeably milder in the mid 70s at the coast. In addition, nocturnal storms over the water will have a better chance to approach the coast so will keep chance PoPs south of the Cape overnight.

Sun-Mon...
Zonal jet over central/eastern Canada will drag an H100-H70 blocking ridge into the NW Atlc on Sunday. This will allow the large H100-H70 cutoff low currently dominating the WX pattern over the SE CONUS to lift north into the Great Lakes region. There it will gradually become absorbed by the northern stream by midday Monday. As the low lifts north, the Atlc ridge axis over south FL will build north into the panhandle...allowing mean winds through the H100-H70 lyr to shift from E/SE on Sun to due E on Mon.
"
#526 it is moving w not north.
Morning All.

The BAMMS have a thing for FL, odd to have all three clustered like that. All others have moved east however.

ECMWF/GFS agree on Matthew strengthening after a weakening trend over the next day. Also to note that SHIPS is showing shear dropping over Matthew a lot over the next couple days:

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MATTHEW AL142016 10/01/16 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 140 137 127 116 107 100 95 102 97 86 82 82 85
V (KT) LAND 140 137 127 116 107 100 95 101 96 69 66 65 68
V (KT) LGEM 140 137 128 117 110 102 103 106 107 82 85 90 95
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 21 16 13 14 13 7 6 3 5 7 8 5 8
SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.5 30.0 30.0 30.0
700-500 MB RH 66 72 72 75 76 74 74 72 73 76 78 79 78

Not to mention humidity levels rising and SSTs rising as it goes over the very warm waters near Jamaica/Cuba/Haiti. Could mean big trouble for those islands as conditions warrant rapid intensification. Wouldn't be surprised if Matthew becomes a category 5 again.
595. hmroe
Quoting 571. Hurricanes101:



It is moving west, it has not started turning north yet


You can continue to argue about everything I say, but according to the coordinates, it's moving WNW. 0900 : 13.3 -72.8 1200: 13.4 -73.1
Quoting 512. JrWeathermanFL:

This wouldn't be good



This is very concerning to me. I live just west of beaufort inlet. I have this Irene and Sandy feeling in my gut. Irene blessed us with 4' of water in my garage... Hoping for a turn to the east. Prayers here. GL everyone in its path.
Win1game,
"The track in the middle has more of a NE look to it, though the cone itself coverig more of FL likely due to being closer in time."

Me look at cone, not track so much.
Ref 556.
Hello, wg03! Lurking, watching, and got the fans blowing here on the FL west coast.
Quoting 590. Hurricanes101:



The ridge has moved westward in the last few hours. Note where Matthew is, we are losing the WSW component in the steering.


That center of the low shown over SE Indiana is farther north (about 90 miles.) It's moved this much in 5 hours. You can see it here on the midwest WV loop.
Link
I'm going to side with recon data for movement, and not bare-eye satellite analysis.
Quoting 579. Sfloridacat5:

Definitely moving WNW now, also dry air is attacking the system from the west.

Buddy, recon is showing the opposite and a WSW motion, I think I'll take them over you.
Quoting 595. hmroe:



You can continue to argue about everything I say, but according to the coordinates, it's moving WNW. 0900 : 13.3 -72.8 1200: 13.4 -73.1


That is fine, NHC shows west. Recon data, which is the most live data we can get shows that the system is slightly south of due west from the first point. There is no better data we can get in terms of movement than recon. Overall the system is wobbling westward, at times it is moving just north of due west and at other times it is moving just south of due west.

603. SLU
Quoting 595. hmroe:



You can continue to argue about everything I say, but according to the coordinates, it's moving WNW. 0900 : 13.3 -72.8 1200: 13.4 -73.1

.1 degree does not mean it's moving wnw. .1 is like 6 miles.

recent recon obs indicate it is moving basically due west at 270 degrees.

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°21'N 73°11'W (13.35N 73.1833W)
Quoting 590. Hurricanes101:



The ridge has moved westward in the last few hours. Note where Matthew is, we are losing the WSW component in the steering.
My point is what I perceive (perhaps erroneously) as a remarkable increase in the ridge's strength compared to the previous three hours steering guidance.
0900z


1200z


And that's al I have to say about that. Have a chocolate?
:)
Quoting 575. washingtonian115:

Wish I could plus this more than a few times.Said this thing had a chance to miss the U.S thanks to a trough moving through my area and was immediately attacked,humiliated,ganged up upon and banned.I came on the next morning to ask the mods what that was all that about and then I was attacked and banned again.That is the reason I have been staying away from this place and also because I have a life and family.Funny how when people promoting a U.S landfall 200 hours out at the time they were not attacked but say this thing is going OTS and all hell will break lose for you.Will probably be back Tuesday (if the blog hasn't broken down by then) to read up on Dr.M's and Mr.Henson's post.


Glad to see you back on here, even if it's only brief!
Quoting 605. Barefootontherocks:

My point is what I perceive (perhaps erroneously) as a remarkable increase in the ridge's strength compared to the previous three hours steering guidance.
0900z


1200z


And that's al I have to say about that. Have a chocolate?
:)


3 musketeers for me. Didn't someone mention Matthew has actually picked up speed today?
Quoting 513. Chicklit:

huh?

Where's Grothar?
We need a word for this.


Now Chicklit, you've been around long enough to know a trifurcated rapidification with retinal tear of the eye when you see one.



Quoting 593. ProgressivePulse:

Morning All.

The BAMMS have a thing for FL, odd to have all three clustered like that. All others have moved east however.




BAMMS are going with a stronger ridge. That may be correct, we'll know soon enough
610. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2m2 minutes ago Walnut Creek, CA
Since 2011, the Atlantic basin has had more major hurricanes during October than during September. #Matthew
Due West. a slight wobble with direction does not mean anything. In the past we have seen significant wobbles that change the location dramatically. This has not been the case here. Very slight moves that are normal in a large storm or any storm. WEST. for now. :)

Quoting 604. chevycanes:


.1 degree does not mean it's moving wnw. .1 is like 6 miles.

recent recon obs indicate it is moving basically due west at 270 degrees.

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°21'N 73°11'W (13.35N 73.1833W)
Quoting 605. Barefootontherocks:

My point is what I perceive (perhaps erroneously) as a remarkable increase in the ridge's strength compared to the previous three hours steering guidance.
0900z


1200z


And that's al I have to say about that. Have a chocolate?
:)


The two highs have bridged across the weakness. I was watching for this from yesterday. This will make for an interesting day today.
And the remnant front draped SW to NE across the FL peninsula now retreating north on WV sat loop:
Link
Quoting 573. ackee:

Poll Time matthew is it a critical latitude that will determine it's impact what direction is matthew moving now in your view ?

A west
B WNW
C wSW
D. Nw



West, wobbling to the north slightly. This may or may not be the beginning of the turn. We should know by the 5pm advisory.
Quoting 612. kmanislander:



The two highs have bridged across the weakness. I was watching for this from yesterday. This will make for an interesting day today.


It will be interesting to see how far west Matthew gets before this turn starts
Quoting 607. Hurricanes101:



3 musketeers for me. Didn't someone mention Matthew has actually picked up speed today?

looks to be moving slightly faster. it's almost to it's predicted 2pm forecast point.
Quoting 610. SLU:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2m2 minutes ago Walnut Creek, CA
Since 2011, the Atlantic basin has had more major hurricanes during October than during September. #Matthew


True, but Matthew became a 5 in September. Too bad we're at 14 storms now, if only our barely-a-storm didn't happen my preseason numbers could be close, I thought post-peak would be our big ACE scorer like the last couple seasons.
The HIGH in Texas is pushing the LOW out of the OHIO VALLEY. The HIGH in Texas is coming pretty dang fast eastward. You can also see a Midlevel low trying to develop in the Gulf from the trough. That will likely bring some shear to Matthew in time.....I HOPE! This is a great loop to observe from!
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxlo op.cgi?wv_east_enhanced 12
Quoting 617. win1gamegiantsplease:



True, but Matthew became a 5 in September. Too bad we're at 14 storms now, if only our barely-a-storm didn't happen my preseason numbers could be close, I thought post-peak would be our big ACE scorer like the last couple seasons.


We are at 13 storms, 14 depressions :)

ACE: 14L (Matthew) Operational 9.3225
Quoting 608. Grothar:



Now Chicklit, you've been around long enough to know a trifurcated rapidification with retinal tear of the eye when you see one.







Gro you are absolutely killing me, haha. I hope everyone in SE Jamaica has finished or is finishing up their hurricane preps. The flow starts to back out of the SW over Western Cuba. One thing no one has talked much about is the effect land interaction with Jamaica and Cuba will have on the short term motion. It may mean small but significant changes in angle for the track. Mountains make hurricanes do funny things.
I'm tired of seeing these people saying wnw look at the satt photos. its moving w wsw look and learn.
Quoting 610. SLU:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2m2 minutes ago Walnut Creek, CA
Since 2011, the Atlantic basin has had more major hurricanes during October than during September. #Matthew


This is interesting. Are we seeing an extension of the "peak" of the season? That chart that we always see with September 10 as the peak, what would it look like from say 2004 to now?
Quoting 615. Hurricanes101:



It will be interesting to see how far west Matthew gets before this turn starts


Perhaps too interesting. A lot depends on whether the bridge collapses or strengthens
Quoting 623. kmanislander:



Perhaps too interesting. A lot depends on whether the bridge collapses or strengthens


Could be what the GFS was seeing?
Quoting 602. Hurricanes101:



That is fine, NHC shows west. Recon data, which is the most live data we can get shows that the system is slightly south of due west from the first point. There is no better data we can get in terms of movement than recon. Overall the system is wobbling westward, at times it is moving just north of due west and at other times it is moving just south of due west.




Spot On!
626. MahFL
Quoting 571. Hurricanes101:



It is moving west, it has not started turning north yet


If anything it's slightly south of due west, like 268 or so...
Off for a while
Quoting 579. Sfloridacat5:

Definitely moving WNW now, also dry air is attacking the system from the west.



Actually, if one looks closely, they can see the eye moving right along 13.3 N latitude. The last frame shows the eye being less discernable, thereby giving the appearance of a slight WNW wobble that doesn't exist.
629. hmroe
Quoting 604. chevycanes:


.1 degree does not mean it's moving wnw. .1 is like 6 miles.

recent recon obs indicate it is moving basically due west at 270 degrees.

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°21'N 73°11'W (13.35N 73.1833W)


For future reference, what degree of change would you consider WNW? I'm confused how a change from -73.1 to -73.11 is fairly considered W movement and a change from 13.3 to 13.21 is considered Southerly, but a change from 13.3 to 13.4 can't be considered to have a Northerly component.
Quoting 621. markot:

I'm tired of seeing these people saying wnw look at the satt photos. its moving w wsw look and learn.

I dont know ... Matthew seems to be holding steady with a west motion ... no real hints of sw or nw movement yet .... it almost looks like its trying to gradually move north or west ... with a pinhole eye it will be hard to dissertain a wobble or a shift in track


Hurricane Season 2016 - MATTHEW - Five Day Loop - v5.2

UPDATED CONTENT - October 1, 2016 - 08:00 AM EDT
This video contains a five day loop of Major Hurricane Matthew, an overlay of the current forecast track at the end of the loop, and several GOES East floater animations and static images.

New versions of this video will be updated with each new update from the National Hurricane Center.
Quoting 573. ackee:

Poll Time matthew is it a critical latitude that will determine it's impact what direction is matthew moving now in your view ?

A west
B WNW
C wSW
D. Nw


A. Matthew has been moving west. To determine a storms direction always make sure there is at the very least three frames showing a motion before concluding that a storm has change directions. Powerful hurricanes like Matthew tend to wobble and bobble and rarely travel in straight lines.
Some upstream clues from CLE's AFD?

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will lift north into
lower Michigan by Sunday then shift east of the forecast area on
Monday. A large area of high pressure will move across the Great
Lakes Monday and move off the New England Coast late Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Made minor changes to the afternoon forecast. Upper low near the
Ohio Indiana border is expected to drift northward into Michigan
this evening. The best area for upward vertical motion is near
the TOL area where instability is greatest. Some breaks are
present in the cloud cover over north central Ohio but this will
fill in as diurnal heating continues. Still expect development of
scattered showers with a few thunderstorms mainly over the western
third of the CWA this afternoon and over the region tonight.
Expect generally dry conditions through about 1-2 pm before
redevelopment begins. Timing and coverage of scattered tonight is
difficult to discern.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low will finally start to pull off on Sunday but it will
take till midday Monday before it`s impact on the local area is
finally over. More showers are expected tonight with perhaps the
greatest coverage of the entire three day event. Have bumped
precip chances up and would have liked to have gone higher but had
to match up with neighboring offices. By Sunday afternoon most of
the showers will be over the northeast half of the area and by
late Sunday night only some scattered showers are expected in the
far east. Skies will gradually clear in the subsidence behind the
upper low. Temps Sunday will continue on the cool side with
seasonable readings on Monday. Tuesday is shaping up to be a nice
day for early October with abundant sunshine and readings in the
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models differ some on how fast next upper trough can push ridge off
to the east and thus how fast surface cold front can arrive with
next chance for rain. Generally sticking with superblend with
increasing pops for thu into thu night then lingering chance on fri.
Above normal temps for wed and thu should drop close to normal by
fri as cooler air starts to arrive.
Quoting 632. Ricki13th:


A. Matthew has been moving west. To determine a storms direction always make sure there is at the very least three frames showing a motion before concluding that a storm has change directions. Powerful hurricanes like Matthew tend to wobble and bobble and rarely travel in straight lines.


Folks want to be the first ones to "see" the turn...can't see a turn in one frame, not reliably anyway.
For sake of preparations, how much time would people in Florida have if the storm track shifts off to the west?

I am not confident at all in the current thought that this thing is gonna stay off the east coast.

The cone puts it in the Bahamas on Thursday which is 5 days out. If the thing move further west, are we still looking at Thursday to be over Florida, or will it slow down the time frame? Say Friday or Sat.

I also think the the NHC should stop putting out intensity forecast cause it degrades the overall confidence of the forecast.

I also think the models should come with a HUGE disclaimer..
On the most recent frame of the visible loop he looks like he has two eyes. one in the blob and one in the center.
Quoting 632. Ricki13th:


A. Matthew has been moving west. To determine a storms direction always make sure there is at the very least three frames showing a motion before concluding that a storm has change directions. Powerful hurricanes like Matthew tend to wobble and bobble and rarely travel in straight lines.


I agree and it is usually over the course of 6 hours is even better.

Quoting 629. hmroe:



For future reference, what degree of change would you consider WNW? I'm confused how a change from -73.1 to -73.11 is fairly considered W movement and a change from 13.3 to 13.21 is considered Southerly, but a change from 13.3 to 13.4 can't be considered to have a Northerly component.


It is not really the degree of change, it is the overall movement over a certain period of time. While the NHC had the coordinates change from 13.3 to 13.4 over the last 2 advisories, they still show the overall movement as westward. The recon fixes show a slightly south of west wobble that occurred after the 8am advisory, but the storm has also moved slightly north of west at times as well. The overall movement continues to be west with Matthew.
639. hmroe
Quoting 628. ncforecaster:



Actually, if one looks closely, they can see the eye moving right along 13.3 N latitude. The last frame shows the eye being less discernable, thereby giving the appearance of a slight WNW wobble that doesn't exist.


According to recon, there was a wobble. It went from 13.3 to 13.4 to 13.2. Only about 20 miles overall, but it was there.
If I'm recalling correctly, Katrina was originally forecast to turn north like Matthew's forecast, sending it to Florida, Alabama, or Mississippi. Revised forecasts kept pushing it north, but it kept going west. Of course, it finally turned north but not until it had gone far enough west that it devastated Louisiana when it hit. Will we see a similar pattern with Matthew? Of course, it's in a different environment. I'm just noticing a similar pattern between forecast and actual path....



Gro you are absolutely killing me, haha. I hope everyone in SE Jamaica has finished or is finishing up their hurricane preps. The flow starts to back out of the SW over Western Cuba. One thing no one has talked much about is the effect land interaction with Jamaica and Cuba will have on the short term motion. It may mean small but significant changes in angle for the track. Mountains make hurricanes do funny things.


Unfortunately doesn't look like they are battening down the hatches in Kingston based on the latest live cam feed here: Link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0d6c99HSKo
643. hmroe
Quoting 635. TBayEyes:

For sake of preparations, how much time would people in Florida have if the storm track shifts off to the west?

I am not confident at all in the current thought that this thing is gonna stay off the east coast.

The cone puts it in the Bahamas on Thursday which is 5 days out. If the thing move further west, are we still looking at Thursday to be over Florida, or will it slow down the time frame? Say Friday or Sat.

I also think the the NHC should stop putting out intensity forecast cause it degrades the overall confidence of the forecast.

I also think the models should come with a HUGE disclaimer..


I would be ready Tuesday.
Recon is not transmitting data onto the tropical atlantic site.
Quoting 620. charlottefl:




Gro you are absolutely killing me, haha. I hope everyone in SE Jamaica has finished or is finishing up their hurricane preps. The flow starts to back out of the SW over Western Cuba. One thing no one has talked much about is the effect land interaction with Jamaica and Cuba will have on the short term motion. It may mean small but significant changes in angle for the track. Mountains make hurricanes do funny things.


It is looking bad for Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Regardless of strength, it could be extremely dangerous. The current EURO has Matthew perilously close to crossing Haiti. Even if it gets torrential rains, it could be a horrible scenario. My thinking is that the EURO might be moving Matthew a little too quickly north. Just by looking at the current steering maps, it would appear the turn might be as far west as 76-78 deg. I still see a Cat 3 or 4 as it enters the Bahamas. I really hope I am wrong.

The timing of the exit of the low currently near Ohio is crucial. Indications are that it will move a little further north than anticipated, allowing the high to move back west.



WE will also see if this might be player in creating a hole in the high and move Matthew towards it.

Quoting 641. padirescu:




Gro you are absolutely killing me, haha. I hope everyone in SE Jamaica has finished or is finishing up their hurricane preps. The flow starts to back out of the SW over Western Cuba. One thing no one has talked much about is the effect land interaction with Jamaica and Cuba will have on the short term motion. It may mean small but significant changes in angle for the track. Mountains make hurricanes do funny things.


Unfortunately doesn't look like they are battening down the hatches in Kingston based on the latest live cam feed here: Link


Isn't that Kingston, Canada?
West
SWEST
NWEST


overall the dang thing is still going mostly WEST with a bobble here and there in all directions.....LOL
Quoting 646. Dakster:



Isn't that Kingston, Canada?


Sure is! :)
Question for anyone: Where is the best place to get up-to-date ACE statistics? Thanks in advance.
Quoting 612. kmanislander:



The two highs have bridged across the weakness. I was watching for this from yesterday. This will make for an interesting day today.


There's been a few of us saying that the high was going to end up being stronger than originally thought. Some of the models seemed to pick up on this and moved the track more westward as a result.

But yes, today will be interesting. :)
Quoting 646. Dakster:



Isn't that Kingston, Canada?


Whooops... Good thing it's still breakfast time so I can eat that egg off my face!
Quoting 646. Dakster:



Isn't that Kingston, Canada?


No wonder they're not concerned.
Quoting 629. hmroe:



For future reference, what degree of change would you consider WNW? I'm confused how a change from -73.1 to -73.11 is fairly considered W movement and a change from 13.3 to 13.21 is considered Southerly, but a change from 13.3 to 13.4 can't be considered to have a Northerly component.


Quoting 639. hmroe:



According to recon, there was a wobble. It went from 13.3 to 13.4 to 13.2. Only about 20 miles overall, but it was there.


That was a poor choice of words, i.e. no wobble, on my part, when it has wobbled quite a bit during the past 6 hours. I meant the overall motion during that time has straddled 13.3 N latitude, essentially. Wobbles are to be expected. The point I was making is that it has not made a turn to the WNW.
Quoting 608. Grothar:



Now Chicklit, you've been around long enough to know a trifurcated rapidification with retinal tear of the eye when you see one.






Are you sure this hasn't made it to Cross-eyed twirlycane status?
This morning my concern is that if Matthew moves far enough west, Jamaica will have to deal with all or part of the catastrophic eastern side of this storm.
657. MahFL
Quoting 646. Dakster:



Isn't that Kingston, Canada?


Ha yes it is, had us fooled.
People were saying last night on this blog that it was starting to make the turn. I said it was oscillating back and forth because of how strong it is (just physics of the storm). If it does it for more than a couple of hours then you can say its a definite trend move. Otherwise, you're just going frame by frame and if you go long enough it's basically at, below, or just slightly above where the storm originally was just a few hours ago.
Quoting 641. padirescu:




Gro you are absolutely killing me, haha. I hope everyone in SE Jamaica has finished or is finishing up their hurricane preps. The flow starts to back out of the SW over Western Cuba. One thing no one has talked much about is the effect land interaction with Jamaica and Cuba will have on the short term motion. It may mean small but significant changes in angle for the track. Mountains make hurricanes do funny things.


Unfortunately doesn't look like they are battening down the hatches in Kingston based on the latest live cam feed here: Link



This live feed is Kingston, Ontario Not Kingston, Jamaica!!!!!! Trust me we are battening down
660. Soflo
Prediction for eye enlarging ocean past cuba?
Quoting 621. markot:

I'm tired of seeing these people saying wnw look at the satt photos. its moving w wsw look and learn.


i think most people are looking at the last 2 frames of a given loop and claiming, "look its going eastwestern!!!" We have got to average the last few points, maybe the first, middle, and last frames, to determine the trend. this could lead to a statement of " this sat/WV loop has it trending northsouthernly, but the last 2 frames have a slight kick in the easterlywest direction."

yes, i made up my own directions to drive the point home without adding to the wild guesses. currently im in the camp of, "its heading west with some wobbles". i held a straight edge to the monitor to determine this in as low of a tech way possible.
Quoting 651. padirescu:



Whooops... Good thing it's still breakfast time so I can eat that egg of my face!


Don't feel badly. We all do it. I once posted a picture of the flooding in Venice, FL and posted an image of Venice, Italy instead. I was shocked at the flooding in the streets.
663. MahFL
Quoting 656. JNFlori30A:

This morning my concern is that if Matthew moves far enough west, Jamaica will have to deal with all or part of the catastrophic eastern side of this storm.


Another concern is the really high TCHP starts at 15N.
Quoting 658. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

People were saying last night on this blog that it was starting to make the turn. I said it was oscillating back and forth because of how strong it is (just physics of the storm). If it does it for more than a couple of hours then you can say its a definite trend move. Otherwise, you're just going frame by frame and if you go long enough it's basically at, below, or just slightly above where the storm originally was just a few hours ago.


The only thing certain is that it's north of the next forecast point and that's maybe only 8 to 10 miles north at that.
Rolling thunder and rain on and off.
Presently threading the louvres with garbage bags to make them water tight
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 73.4W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
667. MZT
Facebook Live. Still a pleasant day on the south coast of Hispanolia right now, breezy and low clouds

Bani, Dominican Republic
640. Brillig

Wikipedia has a "Summary of tropical cyclone warnings and watches associated with Hurricane Katrina"
Here is a Kingston, Jamaica webcam...

http://www.earthcam.com/world/jamaica/negril/?cam =rickscafe

Link

Not the best one... but at least there isn't a part going on at Rick's bar...
The low moving north in Ohio is not doing anyone in Jamaica any favors...It's becoming evident on wator vapor and the steering maps that there's going to be a push for the west before it rounds the ridge. Only thing to do is wait and watch the atmosphere unfold while checking Recon. Be back later this afternoon to see if Matt decides to take a hard right or just fall asleep at the wheel and take a lazy man's turn. Please stay safe all.
Quoting 650. Xyrus2000:



There's been a few of us saying that the high was going to end up being stronger than originally thought. Some of the models seemed to pick up on this and moved the track more westward as a result.

But yes, today will be interesting. :)
Without the weakness that provides for the hard right I guess it's time for: 'Jesus, take the wheel!'
Quoting 649. SPShaw:

Question for anyone: Where is the best place to get up-to-date ACE statistics? Thanks in advance.


I was using this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2016_Atlantic_ hurricane_season/ACE_calcs
673. MahFL
Once Matthew hits this, be ready for a show :



NHC showing a major just east of Marsh Harbor at 8am thurs.

Quoting 653. charlottefl:





:p - couldn't have given a better answer myself.
Quoting 661. damnhawk:



i think most people are looking at the last 2 frames of a given loop and claiming, "look its going eastwestern!!!" We have got to average the last few points, maybe the first, middle, and last frames, to determine the trend. this could lead to a statement of " this sat/WV loop has it trending northsouthernly, but the last 2 frames have a slight kick in the easterlywest direction."

yes, i made up my own directions to drive the point home without adding to the wild guesses. currently im in the camp of, "its heading west with some wobbles". i held a straight edge to the monitor to determine this in as low of a tech way possible.


Back in the mid 90's when I was a student intern at the NHC, the standard rule was calculating the general motion for the preceding 6 hours to "smooth out the wobbles." With intermediate advisories, they can smooth the motion over that shorter time frame, if it's a definitive change in trajectory.
What if we shifted the GFS 5 or maybe 7 degrees past 75
The scariest S curve up the spine of FL!!
That trough is receding north little in the WV loops. That sharp turn will be harder to achieve considering the latitude of the storm.
679. MahFL
Quoting 669. Dakster:

Here is a Kingston, Jamaica webcam......Not the best one... but at least there isn't a part going on at Rick's bar...


It's not Kingston, it's actually on the western side of Jamaica.
past 72w woops sorry 73w moving west still
682. Mikla
I have a question was the steering map that was shown down in the comments a credible source? Because if so, the turn will occur after 75W maybe as late as 78-79W
Quoting 665. kimoskee:

Rolling thunder and rain on and off.
Presently threading the louvres with garbage bags to make them water tight
There are a lot of people who are, and will continue to be praying for your safety.
Quoting 659. kimoskee:




This live feed is Kingston, Ontario Not Kingston, Jamaica!!!!!! Trust me we are battening down

At least he is consistent! Gotta love Gro.

The next 6 hours may actually be the most crucial time period when it comes to the eventual landfall of this thing, (anywhere not just the US)
I will believe it only when I see it, Matt taking a hard right turn and recurving out to sea. A monster that large? What a feat. Upper East Coast needs to watch this one.
The new NHC track is well east of the
latest GFS by day 5, but lies west of the consensus aids. Needless
to say, confidence in the details of the track forecast at days 4
and 5 is quite low.
689. MahFL
Oh oh, major hurricane in the Bahamas :

Quoting 680. Grothar:






Oh man, and if we continue trending westward, not good.
So are we Floridians out of the woods???
Kimoske are you near the beaches there?
Quoting 683. Camerooski:

I have a question was the steering map that was shown down in the comments a credible source? Because if so, the turn will occur after 75W maybe as late as 78-79W


The steering maps are just a tool. The atmosphere is in constant motion. The longer the high stays strong to the north of the storm the further west it will get before turning. Pretty much all the models forecast the ridge to weaken and slide east, but there are key differences in when that happens and to what degree. And that's why you have such a big spread. It's impossible to know right now until it actually starts to break down.
Matthew is moving slightly slower now, it should start a WNW motion in the next 12 hours i'd imagine. Even if it is still moving west by 12 hours, it's doing so at a slower and slower pace, so it's impact on the track will not be as extreme as if it was moving over 10 mph.






Hopefully it drags in some dry air as it hits land and tamps its strength down some as it approaches Bahamas/FL. Not much in the way before then :[

696. MahFL
.."Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida."...
Gov't Says It's Prepared For Hurricane, Jamaicans Urged To Store Water. Officials think it will be a cat 2 by Monday when it hits them:

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/lead-stories/2 0160930/ready-matthew-govt-says-its-prepared-hurri cane-jamaicans-urged-store
It's all about the strength of the high where Matthew goes the atmosphere is always changing and any one of the lows or both that are expected to create a weakness doesn't pan out the closer Matthew will move to the U.S coast. I have said I'm confident to side with the Euro early this morning and that the other models may start to trend that way, but I'm still concerned the GFS being more west although it has trended east in recent runs, the UKMET with a stronger ridge and hook back NW to the coast is concerning and remember the UKMET did well with Hermine. The afternoon runs will be interesting.
I think weathunderground members should receive a keyboard with ten F5 keys. Matthew is wearing mine out, even before making landfall anywhere.
Looks pretty clear to me that there is at least an iota of a northward component to the overall westward motion. I'm not seeing due west or south of due west as many bloggers have stated in last few posts.
701. MZT
Facebook Live, the north shore of Jamaica. She says the sun is out but the waves have picked up from yesterday.
Strawberry Fields Resort, Jamaica
Quoting 699. NEFLWATCHING:

I think weathunderground members should receive a keyboard with ten F5 keys. Matthew is wearing mine out, even before making landfall anywhere.


Just use your mouse to hit the refresh icon on whatever browser you're using. No need to wear out keys :)
Still heading about 270 at 6. The official track has Matthew moving WNW and then NW within 24 hours. Given current trends this may not happen as quickly as models and NHC are showing. That puts Jamaica at serious risk and the East Coast of U.S. at greater risk later on.

There's been some serious degrading of the structure and cloud tops have warmed significantly due to internal changes and SW shear at mid levels. Not sure if that will impact track, but its likely to initiate an EWRC. If it completes an EWRC in time, it could be really bad news for Jamaica, as it could re-strengthen before a possible landfall on the island. Next 24 hours and when it begins the NW or North turn are critical for the future track.
704. hmroe
Quoting 638. Hurricanes101:




It is not really the degree of change, it is the overall movement over a certain period of time. While the NHC had the coordinates change from 13.3 to 13.4 over the last 2 advisories, they still show the overall movement as westward. The recon fixes show a slightly south of west wobble that occurred after the 8am advisory, but the storm has also moved slightly north of west at times as well. The overall movement continues to be west with Matthew.

Thanks, I understand the NHC's system and how we can only really trust a longer period of data. However, just because the NHC only updates every 6 hours doesn't make recon data untrue though. To say it isn't a CAT3 now just because NHC has yet to publish, would be a lie. We might not have had a CAT5 at all if the last mission yesterday hadn't been so close in timing to the NHC's next scheduled update. I think any current data is fair game to discuss here. I will try to be more specific and say "the last recon showed WNW" instead of "it's moving WNW."
Quoting 683. Camerooski:

I have a question was the steering map that was shown down in the comments a credible source? Because if so, the turn will occur after 75W maybe as late as 78-79W

Yes it is a credible source. I remember Erika for last year where the short term track bust these same steering currents was used to show the high extending further west and closing off the exits. Even though the situation is much different, the old track had it turn right around now. If it stays the course I think Matthew will eventually turn around 76W or even 77W. But that turn might be more gradual than before. Just my amateur two cents lol.
Hi Everyone, Yes I am lurking and have been a lot the past few days. Will be in and out all weekend.
Grothar, it is too close for comfort for us here in SE Fla if it does not make that turn soon.

I was hoping we would know something by this weekend, but now it appears it is not going to be moving much in the next few days.

Thanks to you all for the maps and graphics, the funnies, and information.
Carry on,
Gams aka Gamma
(Ft Lauderdale area)
708. ackee
Quoting 703. VegasRain:

Still heading about 270 at 6. The official track has Matthew moving WNW and then NW within 24 hours. Given current trends this may not happen as quickly as models and NHC are showing. That puts Jamaica at serious risk and the East Coast of U.S. at greater risk later on.

There's been some serious degrading of the structure and cloud tops have warmed significantly due to internal changes and SW shear at mid levels. Not sure if that will impact track, but its likely to initiate an EWRC. If it completes an EWRC in time, it could be really bad news for Jamaica, as it could re-strengthen before a possible landfall on the island. Next 24 hours and when it begins the NW or North turn are critical for the future track. Well said I hope the storm shift but I agree
709. beell
For this OTS scenario to manifest, the closed low (over IN/OH and attendant trough will have to begin erosion of the A/B ridge. This would also serve to lift the southern extent of the ridge to the north and allow Matthew to tag along. That may still occur but it is not set in stone..

500 mb heights from last night's dropsondes NOAA-(Gonzo) along with other available soundings show evidence of the trough base extending into the eastern Gulf. Also of note, an east to west drop run north of Matthew did not indicate any lower heights that might indicate a well-defined path to the north.

Additionally, this morning's sounding from Nassau showed a slight height rise from yesterday evening-perhaps an indication that the western edge of the A/B ridge is somewhere between the east coast of FL and the Bahamas at this general latitude.

In the meantime, I think Matthew is still in a lackluster steering environment and will require the ridge to begin lifting to get this storm on its modeled path to the north.
Quoting 671. JNFlori30A:

Without the weakness that provides for the hard right I guess it's time for: 'Jesus, take the wheel!'


Cleetus take the ree-eeeelll, take it from my hyanndsss
Cause I can't fish on my owwwwwnnnnn
I'm not out of baaaiiit
So give me one more chyyanncee
help me catch the dang Tarpon
Cleetus take the reeeeelll ohhhh-oh
the high is looking stronger...notice the clouds moving from east to west in the eastern/central Bahamas. Just a couple days ago those clouds were racing north at the position. You see a slower plume going north along the coast of East Florida. Seems like the ridge is building in.....and this is also indicated on the Upper Level Steering map........
Quoting 646. Dakster:



Isn't that Kingston, Canada?

The latest ensemble map actually has Kingston, Ontario in play
Looks to me that Matt is getting ready to go through a complete re-organization phase and potentially a new eye will emerge. Only time will tell. Once Matt reorganizes I think he will re-intensify and look like a more classic hurricane. Interested to see the 12z models and see if there are any new changes in the direction of his path in terms of the east coast.
Quoting 699. NEFLWATCHING:

I think weathunderground members should receive a keyboard with ten F5 keys. Matthew is wearing mine out, even before making landfall anywhere.


Where in NE Fla? I'm in Ormond by the Sea. Seriously hoping Matthew stays well out to sea and just radiates beautiful swells for us to surf and ignite a massive bait run that will have the fishing on fire.
If Matthew does not make the turn north until after 75 he may miss the Mountains in Cuba. He could cross Cuba to the west of the Mountains.
The eye of Matthew is clearing out, looking better on visible.
Quoting 700. FSUCOOPman:

Looks pretty clear to me that there is at least an iota of a northward component to the overall westward motion. I'm not seeing due west or south of due west as many bloggers have stated in last few posts.

Say what?
Certainly the East Coast, but Florida and even the Gulf of Mexico can't be ruled out.....if that trough continues to kick out faster than thought.


Quoting 703. VegasRain:

Still heading about 270 at 6. The official track has Matthew moving WNW and then NW within 24 hours. Given current trends this may not happen as quickly as models and NHC are showing. That puts Jamaica at serious risk and the East Coast of U.S. at greater risk later on.

There's been some serious degrading of the structure and cloud tops have warmed significantly due to internal changes and SW shear at mid levels. Not sure if that will impact track, but its likely to initiate an EWRC. If it completes an EWRC in time, it could be really bad news for Jamaica, as it could re-strengthen before a possible landfall on the island. Next 24 hours and when it begins the NW or North turn are critical for the future track. Well said I hope the storm shift but I agree
Quoting 717. Starhopper:


DO what?



Ok, last 2 frames changed. Before that, there were a solid 5 - 6 with a northward component.
GEOS-5, which has consistently brought this storm up through Fl, or just West of the Gulf Coast, has now changed, and has the track barely off the East coast of Fl, but then when it gets to the Carolinas, it does an about-face and brings the storm due south back towards the Bahamas.

Now THAT'S some crazy stuff.
721. ackee
Quoting 703. VegasRain:

Still heading about 270 at 6. The official track has Matthew moving WNW and then NW within 24 hours. Given current trends this may not happen as quickly as models and NHC are showing. That puts Jamaica at serious risk and the East Coast of U.S. at greater risk later on.

There's been some serious degrading of the structure and cloud tops have warmed significantly due to internal changes and SW shear at mid levels. Not sure if that will impact track, but its likely to initiate an EWRC. If it completes an EWRC in time, it could be really bad news for Jamaica, as it could re-strengthen before a possible landfall on the island. Next 24 hours and when it begins the NW or North turn are critical for the future track. Well said I hope the storm shift but I agree
Quoting 691. weatherman994:

So are we Floridians out of the woods???

Florida will be out of the woods when the storm is North of 25N and East of 78W. Until then, I would stay vigilant but no need to panic yet. Models are still fluid at 5 to 7 days but none of the reliable models show a direct impact on Florida. Next 24 hours will determine how close the storm will get to 78W while in the Caribbean, which is a benchmark for proximity to Florida once it crosses Cuba.
Quoting 715. gulfbreeze:

If Matthew does not make the turn north until after 75 he may miss the Mountains in Cuba. He could cross Cuba to the west of the Mountains.
Don't think our Cayman Island friends would like to have to deal with that scenario. Ivan was not that long ago...
Jamaica is mountainous as is southern-central Cuba. If it somehow avoids these mountains to the west it might not be a pretty sight. Already bad enough for Cuba/Jamaica and the other islands as it is.

Quoting 715. gulfbreeze:

If Matthew does not make the turn north until after 75 he may miss the Mountains in Cuba. He could cross Cuba to the west of the Mountains.
A quick 15Z RAP (500MB) overlay output:

I've highlighted in "green" the weakness that should start influencing Matthew soon.



For the time being, the bridge is strong enough (to prevent a noticeable northerly component to the motion) but once Matthew "inches" far enough to the N it'll break it.
726. MZT
My 2 cents, I doubt the models anticipated the current disorganization of the system. Sloppy storms tend to be steered more by the lower level atmosphere. I'm really wondering if Matthew is going to "sense" that weakeness between the highs. Time is running short for the models to prove themselves ... or change. :-/
727. ackee
Quoting 717. Starhopper:


Say what?
that clearly wsw
728. beell

Last night's 500 mb heights (meters) from the recon drops and one morning sounding (Bahamas). Trough axis represented by black dashed line.
(honk for larger image)
729. Ed22
Quoting 716. WeatherkidJoe2323:

The eye of Matthew is clearing out, looking better on visible.
Maybe it will weaken a little bit or maintained it strength before it starts furious strengthening again.
730. 7544
major in the bahamas hmm any wobbles west when its there well u know
Quoting 688. charlottefl:

The new NHC track is well east of the
latest GFS by day 5, but lies west of the consensus aids. Needless
to say, confidence in the details of the track forecast at days 4
and 5 is quite low.


The turn west does show defintely on the 11am update tho
Quoting 671. JNFlori30A:

Without the weakness that provides for the hard right I guess it's time for: 'Jesus, take the wheel!'


It's one of the reasons why the models are having such a hard time with this storm. The big high pushing in from the east and the apparently weakening low over the eastern US. When and where Matt makes the turn depends on how the fight between these turns out.

My opinion, and it is just an opinion, is that the models have underestimated how strong the high will be and how fast it's moving in. I think this will keep Matt moving west for longer than originally projected. Not enough to push it outside the cone of uncertainty, but enough where I think eastern Jamaica will pretty much get a direct hit. Next up will be eastern Cuba. The coastal mountains will take some of punch out of the storm, but i think the bulk of the core will miss the high mountains further to the east. The Bahamas will be hit in one way or another, but the more westerly track will take the storm closer to the east coast, where it will potentially weed-whack it's way north beginning somewhere around the GA and SC borders. OBX probably won't be happy. Beyond that it gets a lot more uncertain but it's likely that most of the eastern seaboard will feel the effects of this storm. GFS eventually dumping Sandy like rains over NE, and given the warm gulf stream waters all the way up I don't see any reason to disagree.

Again, all my opinion. I could very well be wrong, and probably will be. I'm not a professional met. :)
Quoting 709. beell:

For this OTS scenario to manifest, the closed low (over IN/OH and attendant trough will have to begin erosion of the A/B ridge. This would also serve to lift the southern extent of the ridge to the north and allow Matthew to tag along. That may still occur but it is not set in stone..

500 mb heights from last night's dropsondes NOAA-(Gonzo) along with other available soundings show evidence of the trough base extending into the eastern Gulf. Also of note, an east to west drop run north of Matthew did not indicate any lower heights that might indicate a well-defined path to the north.

Additionally, this morning's sounding from Nassau showed a slight height rise from yesterday evening-perhaps an indication that the western edge of the A/B ridge is somewhere between the east coast of FL and the Bahamas at this general latitude.

In the meantime, I think Matthew is still in a lackluster steering environment and will require the ridge to begin lifting to get this storm on its modeled path to the north.


I see the same, forecasts like these are already tricky, and there has been an increase in heights in FL too and an easterly steering flow took over faster than forecast across FL. Guidance the last couple days has a shift to easterly flow across FL by tomorrow along with subsequent height rises, but this already happened over night into today.

I'm not saying this means doom for FL by any means. The most likely forecast is for it to still miss FL to the east. I'm just noting as you have that so far things haven't unfolded today quite as guidance showed yesterday so far, which has the potential to influence the track in the long term.

The short wave across Texas heading east is expected to influence things also, and long term models do show additional troughing pushing into the Southeast.
Quoting 704. hmroe:


Thanks, I understand the NHC's system and how we can only really trust a longer period of data. However, just because the NHC only updates every 6 hours doesn't make recon data untrue though. To say it isn't a CAT3 now just because NHC has yet to publish, would be a lie. We might not have had a CAT5 at all if the last mission yesterday hadn't been so close in timing to the NHC's next scheduled update. I think any current data is fair game to discuss here. I will try to be more specific and say "the last recon showed WNW" instead of "it's moving WNW."


Except the last recon didn't show a WNW movement; it actually showed something of a WSW movement--although this may be a wobble. The NHC official coordinates for the last 9 hours: 2 am-13.3N 72.5 W, 5am- 13.3N 72.8 W, 8am- 13.4N 73.1W, 11am- 13.4N 73.4W. This is .1N .9W movement over the last 9 hours. Is this a northward trend or did Matthew simply wobble .1N between 5am and 8am?
Quoting 700. FSUCOOPman:

Looks pretty clear to me that there is at least an iota of a northward component to the overall westward motion. I'm not seeing due west or south of due west as many bloggers have stated in last few posts.

That was form the Hurricane Hunters.
For anyone curious, here's a link.
Link
Quoting 720. Lobstah999:

GEOS-5, which has consistently brought this storm up through Fl, or just West of the Gulf Coast, has now changed, and has the track barely off the East coast of Fl, but then when it gets to the Carolinas, it does an about-face and brings the storm due south back towards the Bahamas.

Now THAT'S some crazy stuff.
Quoting 722. VegasRain:


Florida will be out of the woods when the storm is North of 25N and East of 78W. Until then, I would stay vigilant but no need to panic yet. Models are still fluid at 5 to 7 days but none of the reliable models show a direct impact on Florida. Next 24 hours will determine how close the storm will get to 78W while in the Caribbean, which is a benchmark for proximity to Florida once it crosses Cuba.


The lastest models GFS shows the storm huging the East Coast of Florida if the storm is on the Grand Bahama island then Florida will get Hurricane conditions im in Vero Beach
Last shot for this morning to lurk mode.. Thankful that the blog is working so well and hope it continues! Peace out
Will that upper low NE of Matthew, that is diving SW towards the storm have an effect on it. If the storm is going to turn North it better do so in a hurry, as the two highs to the North are pushing the low to the North, and closing off the rapid escape to the North, at least for a few days.
its not going wnw not going nw its going wsw now look at the latest satt. plz quit saying it open up your eyes.plz.
ALERT: The eye has cleared out!
Quoting 719. FSUCOOPman:



Ok, last 2 frames changed. Before that, there were a solid 5 - 6 with a northward component.

Yeah I hear yah. Waiting on the turn myself. :) It is wobbling.
743. Ed22
Quoting 727. ackee:


Eye clearing out nicely, convection beginning to increase in intensity; pressure could start falling again.
Quoting 683. Camerooski:

I have a question was the steering map that was shown down in the comments a credible source? Because if so, the turn will occur after 75W maybe as late as 78-79W
Yes. Same source as the shear maps, the CIMSS project at U of Wisc, where they take sat data and make graphics from it, among other things. Sometimes the accuracy of their graphics come into question but, at present, they are the best around.

Here're the links to the CIMSS steering page and the CIMSS main page.
Last few frames Matthew's eye clearing with a wobble WSW????
Quoting 725. WxLogic:

A quick 15Z RAP (500MB) overlay output:

I've highlighted in "green" the weakness that should start influencing Matthew soon.



For the time being, the bridge is strong enough (to prevent a noticeable northerly component to the motion) but once Matthew "inches" far enough to the N it'll break it.
This is known as bumping the ridge.
Quoting 727. ackee:


Yeah maybe, Or west and wobbly. That is 7 hours worth of images I believe.
Quoting 737. weatherman994:



The lastest models GFS shows the storm huging the East Coast of Florida if the storm is on the Grand Bahama island then Florida will get Hurricane conditions im in Vero Beach

I should clarify: None of the reliable models (GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, HWRF) show a direct Landfall on Florida.
Quoting 719. FSUCOOPman:



Ok, last 2 frames changed. Before that, there were a solid 5 - 6 with a northward component.


It's not moving wsw, but it's not moving north of west either...
Quoting 680. Grothar:






The last thing the Jersey Shore needs is this hurricane's out fringes next Sunday. That would create a flooding nightmare, and the Army Corps of Engineers just went out to bid for our protective dune system last week!
Yes, but unfortunately they've been shifting for the worse.
Quoting 748. VegasRain:


I should clarify: None of the reliable models (GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, HWRF) show a direct Landfall on Florida.
752. beell
Quoting 733. Jedkins01:



I see the same, forecasts like these are already tricky, and there has been an increase in heights in FL too and an easterly steering flow took over faster than forecast across FL. Guidance the last couple days has a shift to easterly flow across FL by tomorrow along with subsequent height rises, but this already happened over night into today.

I'm not saying this means doom for FL by any means. The most likely forecast is for it to still miss FL to the east. I'm just noting as you have that so far things haven't unfolded today quite as guidance showed yesterday so far, which has the potential to influence the track in the long term.

The short wave across Texas heading east is expected to influence things also, and long term models do show additional troughing pushing into the Southeast.


A shame, Gonzo's flight appeared to be incomplete or not all the data was pushed to the "Tropical Atlantic" site. I would have expected a continuation of the lawnmower pattern across FL and the Bahamas.
Quoting 740. markot:

its not going wnw not going nw its going wsw now look at the latest satt. plz quit saying it open up your eyes.plz.


Open your eyes, there were 5 -6 frames with a northward component, and then 2 -3 back wsw. It's wobbling, as powerful hurricanes do. When I originally posted that, it was at the end of the 5th - 6th frame with the northward component.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.ht ml

The low behind matthew that's supposed to have a 20 percent of development and bust the ridge per the euro looks farther east and to be struggling at least currently....
Quoting 751. jordan1tylerr:

Yes, but unfortunately they've been shifting for the worse.


Most models have shifted east over the last 24 hours
Eye is clearing. Matthew may actually maintain intensity or strengthen because right now NHC noted there is no ERWC occurring at this time.

Biggest take from 11 AM update is that they now are calling for a major hurricane east of FL, not liking how the High Pressure is acting any push west from where the GFS has it would be close or a landfall
12Z GFS is running now
A dangerous Cat 4 headed for some of the thoroughly hottest waters in the world. The eye of this hurricane WILL hit somewhere, wether it's Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Bahamas, the East Coast, or Atlantic Canada. There's no was this thing can miss everything.


TWEET.... Grothar....Tropicaltwits.com 11:29 AM... Future of Matthew uncertain. Some models east; some models west. But things could change.......Next update: 2:22 PM
Quoting 748. VegasRain:


I should clarify: None of the reliable models (GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, HWRF) show a direct Landfall on Florida.


Right i know that what im saying is that the storm doesn't have make landfall to cause serious problems here in Floida in fact its worst just having squally weather without the eye making landfall
12z gfs showing NNW movement between hours 6 and 12. Shows stall and major direction change in next 6-8 hours.
709. beell

I looked at Gonzo dropsondes in the GOM for 500 mb height and did not see a whole lot of change. You looking at a different parameter for the trough?
Blob off Miami? Maybe not. :)
765. AVL
Well...Looks like things remain interesting. Cracks me up to see all of the posts contradicting realtime data from gonzo. Part of why I love WU. Back to lurking.
Folks if the turn does not begin before 75w a direct hit on Jamaica is almost unavoidable and the implications longer term will be greater for Southern Florida
Quoting 748. VegasRain:


I should clarify: None of the reliable models (GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, HWRF) show a direct Landfall on Florida.
There you go. Because I found fault with the prior statement, with what the GFS is showing it would bring hurricane conditions to the E Coast, not the major hurricane condition, but hurricane conditions. 70-80 mph winds at times, isolated tornadoes, frequent bands, flooding, extreme coastal flooding, and storm surge. etc
Quoting 746. Llamaluvr:

This is known as bumping the ridge.


Humping...it's humping the ridge....
Quoting 725. WxLogic:

A quick 15Z RAP (500MB) overlay output:

I've highlighted in "green" the weakness that should start influencing Matthew soon.



For the time being, the bridge is strong enough (to prevent a noticeable northerly component to the motion) but once Matthew "inches" far enough to the N it'll break it.
The trouble with your green line, is it no longer extends that far South, more like to Central Florida.
Quoting 712. JNFlori30A:


The latest ensemble map actually has Kingston, Ontario in play



Blog comment of the day. Thanks for the laugh.
That's why people are starting to get more and more nervous.
Quoting 766. Seflhurricane:

Folks if the turn does not begin before 75w a direct hit on Jamaica is almost unavoidable and the implications longer term will be greater for Southern Florida
772. MZT
Looks like the high outflow bands will begin crossing Jamaica in an hour or two.
Quoting 760. Grothar:

TWEET.... Grothar....Tropicaltwits.com 11:29 AM... Future of Matthew uncertain. Some models east; some models west. But things could change.......Next update: 2:22 PM


----------------------------------


Gro, I agree, just have to watch the roller coaster ride for a few more days or maybe weeks...

Pretty large ..wow. R click/view image for full screen
Click image for loop

In this new GFS it shows the storm moving due NNW in 6 hours.... Don't see that happening
Quoting 709. beell:

For this OTS scenario to manifest, the closed low (over IN/OH and attendant trough will have to begin erosion of the A/B ridge. This would also serve to lift the southern extent of the ridge to the north and allow Matthew to tag along. That may still occur but it is not set in stone..

500 mb heights from last night's dropsondes NOAA-(Gonzo) along with other available soundings show evidence of the trough base extending into the eastern Gulf. Also of note, an east to west drop run north of Matthew did not indicate any lower heights that might indicate a well-defined path to the north.

Additionally, this morning's sounding from Nassau showed a slight height rise from yesterday evening-perhaps an indication that the western edge of the A/B ridge is somewhere between the east coast of FL and the Bahamas at this general latitude.

In the meantime, I think Matthew is still in a lackluster steering environment and will require the ridge to begin lifting to get this storm on its modeled path to the north.
Just to add to that, early this a.m. I noticed draping of the trough across GOM was stationary but FL and SE US piece seemed progressive/regressive? Checking back in WPC analysis page, the GOM piece has been analyzed as stationary for a while - 21 hours - and as of newest analysis (0838cdt) FL and northward piece are stationary also. (FW (the surface look) is W)
779. MahFL
The eye popped out again...
Quoting 737. weatherman994:



The lastest models GFS shows the storm huging the East Coast of Florida if the storm is on the Grand Bahama island then Florida will get Hurricane conditions im in Vero Beach


Tropical storm force, maybe. Hurricane conditions, not quite. Tropical-storm force winds extend out roughly 170 miles from the center. If the center is situated over Grand Bahama, that would be 150-160 miles east of the Florida coast. This would mean sustained winds at/just below TS-force (say, 35-40 MPH sustained) with occasional gusts upwards of 60. This might mean many school districts (Palm Beach, Martin, St Lucie, Indian River, etc) along the Atlantic coast might shut down for at least one day (Tue. or Wed.) as a safety precaution, but no more.
Floyd was a CAT4 and took a similar route. There were some hurricane-force wind gusts and minor property damage, but no more. We are NOT looking at another Frances, fortunately or unfortunately.
When Matthew turns north should it become a larger storm the further north it goes?
Quoting 753. FSUCOOPman:



Open your eyes, there were 5 -6 frames with a northward component, and then 2 -3 back wsw. It's wobbling, as powerful hurricanes do. When I originally posted that, it was at the end of the 5th - 6th frame with the northward component.
Yes it wobbles a bit North, the a bit South, so a general West movement for now, and into the future as the high is still strong, and the Low is moving out.
This 12z GFS is ridiculous showing an almost due north movement in 6 hours....
Authorities said at least 18 houses were damaged along the La Guajira peninsula of Colombia, which has been suffering from a multi-year drought. They said a 67-year-old man was swept away to his death by a flash flood in an area where it hadn't rained for four years.

Local TV broadcast images of cars and tree trunks surging though flooded streets in coastal areas.

Colombian authorities closed access to beaches and urged residents living near the ocean to move inland in preparation for storm surges that they said would be most intense on Saturday.

Jamaicans, meanwhile, began stocking up on emergency supplies and Prime Minister Andrew Holness on Friday called an urgent meeting of Parliament to discuss preparations for the storm.

Jamaicans are accustomed to intense tropical weather but Hurricane Matthew looked particularly threatening. At its peak, it was more powerful than Hurricane Gilbert, which made landfall on the island in September 1988 and was the most destructive storm in the country's modern history.

"Hurricane Matthew could rival or possibly exceed Gilbert if the core of the strongest winds does actually move over Jamaica," said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and spokesman for the hurricane center in Miami. "There is no certainty of that at this point."

Forecasters said rainfall totals could reach 10 to 15 inches (25 to 38 centimeters) with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches (63 centimeters) in Jamaica and southwestern Haiti.

Kingston, in the southeastern corner of Jamaica, is expected to experience flooding. The government issued a hurricane watch on Friday, and a tropical storm watch was issued for Haiti's southwest coast form the southern border it shares with the Dominican Republic to the capital of Port-au-Prince.

In Haiti, civil protection officials broadcast warnings of a coming storm surge and big waves, saying the country would be "highly threatened" from the approaching system over the next 72 hours. They urged families to prepare emergency food and water kits.

Emergency management authorities banned boating starting Saturday, particularly along the impoverished country's southern coastline, but numerous fishing skiffs could still be seen off the south coast. https://www.yahoo.com/news/mega-hurricane-matthew- threatens-jamaica-haiti-cuba-040643990.html
I will say based on its current position on satellite it would have to sharply turn Northwest... now in order for it to make it anywhere close to the 24 hour forecast point by the NHC.

Quoting 753. FSUCOOPman:



Open your eyes, there were 5 -6 frames with a northward component, and then 2 -3 back wsw. It's wobbling, as powerful hurricanes do. When I originally posted that, it was at the end of the 5th - 6th frame with the northward component.
You can visibly tell on satellite that the trough influence isnt that far south and the ridge extends much farther than expected at this point in time with the cloud movement in the bahamas going more east to west than north to south. The upper steering map as well indicates the ridge is currently stronger than forecast as well.

Quoting 769. NativeSun:

The trouble with your green line, is it no longer extends that far South, more like to Central Florida.
787. hmroe
Quoting 766. Seflhurricane:

Folks if the turn does not begin before 75w a direct hit on Jamaica is almost unavoidable and the implications longer term will be greater for Southern Florida


In earlier models, with a later turn, I think the cone was curved to the E coming out of the Bahamas.

Looks like eyewall replacement is complete. In these frames, the eye nearly vanishes, then re-appears. Storm movement continues westerly with wobbles, already a bit past the forecast turning point.
kman,

Seems it MAY have finally leveled off in strength. ;)

Didn't see that coming! (continued 24 hr burst of intensification). Impressive, to say the least! Glad to see it looking a bit disheveled today, for the Greater Antilles' sake.

I don't remember looking to much at any wide view sats recently, mostly floaters, and I can't say I remember seeing that weak ull in the se'rn GOM until now.

Hazel 1954 seems like a likely analog



LEVI- "Today's nowcasting benchmark is easy. When does #Matthew begin moving north of due west? GFS and ECMWF say right now." Hasn't made the move yet...
Quoting 753. FSUCOOPman:



Open your eyes, there were 5 -6 frames with a northward component, and then 2 -3 back wsw. It's wobbling, as powerful hurricanes do. When I originally posted that, it was at the end of the 5th - 6th frame with the northward component.

Whatever your seeing is not the true motion of the storm, its wobbles and changes in the structure of the eye. If you focus on every wobble the storm has to offer then it will make you dizzy lol.
it's pretty much past the point of no return as far as the euro out to sea hope on the 00z overnight run ;(

Quoting 788. BayFog:


Looks like eyewall replacement is complete. In these frames, the eye nearly vanishes, then re-appears. Storm movement continues westerly with wobbles, already a bit past the forecast turning point.
BTW last 2 frames shows another jog to the SW

🌊🎑🌎😵
Quoting 789. GatorWX:

kman,

Seems it MAY have finally leveled off in strength. ;)

Didn't see that coming! (continued 24 hr burst of intensification). Impressive, to say the least! Glad to see it looking a bit disheveled today, for the Greater Antilles' sake.

I don't remember looking to much at any wide view sats recently, mostly floaters, and I can't say I remember seeing that weak ull in the se'rn GOM until now.


The upper low to the NE of Matthew, moving SW, will that have any effect on Matthew?
Quoting 751. jordan1tylerr:

Yes, but unfortunately they've been shifting for the worse.

The 12z GFS run has started. Looks similar to the 06z run so far, but we will see what it looks like at 72 hrs and beyond. My guess it that it will be similar to the 06z. The 06z moved to the right as compared to the 12z. I'm not convinced that the GFS is far enough to the left at 24-36 hours, and I'm definitely not convinced that the ECMWF is far enough to the left. But... the models are the best tools we have, unfortunately, they are not always the best at predicting the exact timing of Northward turns by tropical systems. Hermine is a good example of the models difficulty with that - though it was a weak depression/storm at the time, unlike Matthew.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Levi is saying on his last tweet that this thing better lift/turn north now per the models as far where the models have had their turn.....
800. MZT
deleted
ATTENTION: Matthew has made its forecast point! 2 hours early (faster storm) and it is now projected to move WNW, but its moving W-WSW
Quoting 795. Patrap:


🌊🎑🌎😵

We may see that old center,replaced with a newer one.
~14 hr loop seems generally west.
804. beell
Southwestern periphery of the A/B ridge lifting in the 12Z GFS-from over Cuba to the northern Bahamas.


12Z 500 mb heights-valid @ 00 hrs.


@ 24 hrs
have a growing concern that this gets quite a bit further west than thought. That means it hits that hot tub water of the wester carribean. This could be very very bad.. really hope the turn occurs in the next 4-6 hrs or we have a bigger problem than forecasted.
806. Mikla
Haha... love the frame to frame comments of the cyclone heading. "It's going NW, no... WSW... no... W.... no... WNW... now it's jogged S"

IMHO... you need to look at the last 6 to 12 hours and average the movement to get a general heading.
Can't get image to post so here is a great link.
Link
809. Ed22
Quoting 727. ackee:


clearly moving Westward.
Quoting 769. NativeSun:

The trouble with your green line, is it no longer extends that far South, more like to Central Florida.


Yup, needs to be moved about 100miles NW of there, and moving slowly N to boot.
Matthew's energy bubble buddy has really toned it down since yesterday. That arm directly linking the two yesterday at times is also not as pronounced. Has allowed shear to have more of an affect and has lessened the moisture inflow into circulation. Moisture content has crashed since max intensity. Bad news is the convection behind has not gained on Matthew, so should keep feeding and helping to fight off shear. Now that Matthew is starting to sip on some hot hurricane juice, we may see that continue to offset the shear also. Matthew's poised to intensify again imo.
Hurricane Preparation 2016

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.






How to Prepare for a Hurricane



Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues



Your Evacuation Plan

Disaster Supplies Kit




Pet Care Disaster Preparedness

NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com





History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster.

5


HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS TIPS



Hurricane hazards come in many forms: storm surge, high winds, tornadoes, and flooding. This means it is important for your family to have a plan that includes all of these hazards. Look carefully at the safety actions associated with each type of hurricane hazard and prepare your family disaster plan accordingly. But remember this is only a guide. The first and most important thing anyone should do when facing a hurricane threat is to use common sense.



You should be able to answer the following questions before a hurricane threatens:

*
What are the Hurricane Hazards?
*
What does it mean to you?
*
What actions should you take to be prepared?

Hurricanes and Your Health and Safety


* The great majority of injuries during a hurricane are cuts caused by flying glass or other debris. Other injuries include puncture wounds resulting from exposed nails, metal, or glass, and bone fractures.
* State and local health departments may issue health advisories or recommendations particular to local conditions. If in doubt, contact your local or state health department.
* Make sure to include all essential medications -- both prescription and over the counter -- in your family's emergency disaster kit.


🌎🎑🌊🌞
hello everyone....had to take a night off....
its obviously slowed...which is inline with models....
but its still going west...
where is it going and do you guys see that turn happening
Quoting 783. Camerooski:

This 12z GFS is ridiculous showing an almost due north movement in 6 hours....

Looking back at the 0z run of the GFS it actually had it do this for another 24 hours into 12z Sunday on a general west to north of due west track then it turns more northerly. That run put the storm right into Kingston, JA.
Matt was only moving @ 5 knots earlier and bmay have slowed or even gone null in motion

Can we put the "direct hit to Florida" to rest for a little. The models have trended more west and, yes, S FL is in the cone...barely. Nothing has been indicated that the eye will hit FL; i.e, direct hit. BUT the more west the models trend, the higher the chances that the storm will be closer offshore possibly giving us TS or Hurricane force winds. Until the models draw a bullseye over my house in Port St. Lucie, I will continue to monitor the system and make plans accordingly. Shutters are ready to go up, have flashlights, batteries, water, etc. Storm still slowly moving wsw and the further s before the turn, the greater chances S FL will be getting some of Matthew's wrath. Prayers for all of those in his path.
I remember Levi Cowan mentioning during Hermine's formation that sometimes the frictional land interaction of a storm north of a landmass can cause the storm to move Southwest toward and parallel to the coast. He discusses this at the 5:30sec mark in This YouTube Video. He also mentions that the models dont usually pick this interaction up very well.

I wonder if perhaps that is what we are seeing with Matthew at the moment where it appears that there is some WSW movement still occuring as it parellels the coast of Columbia.
One observation I wanted to post, and see if anyone more experience can clarify of debunk the theory. In several notable storms, there has been a steering push to the WSW due to high pressure in the Atlantic. In each case, it wold appear as though that push aided the storm in wrapping up.

Andrew
Katrina
Matthew
(I'm sure there are more, but those 3 came to mind quickly).

So do the atmospheric conditions that force the storm slightly southward against its natural tendency poleward help to push flow into the NW quadrant, allowing it to spin up and intensify better than a storm being steering due W or even NW?
Quoting 817. CitikatzSouthFL:

Can we put the "direct hit to Florida" to rest for a little. The models have trended more west and, yes, S FL is in the cone...barely. Nothing has been indicated that the eye will hit FL; i.e, direct hit. BUT the more west the models trend, the higher the chances that the storm will be closer offshore possibly giving us TS or Hurricane force winds. Until the models draw a bullseye over my house in Port St. Lucie, I will continue to monitor the system and make plans accordingly. Shutters are ready to go up, have flashlights, batteries, water, etc. Storm still slowly moving wsw and the further s before the turn, the greater chances S FL will be getting some of Matthew's wrath. Prayers for all of those in his path.


I absolutely agree, but if only we can put to rest the "it's definitely going to OTS" talk too for the same reasons you stated. Matthew's track beyond Cuba has been a complete mystery and probably won't be known for another 72 hours or so.
822. IKE
GFS moving due north at 76 hours.
Quoting 813. 19N81W:

hello everyone....had to take a night off....
its obviously slowed...which is inline with models....
but its still going west...
where is it going and do you guys see that turn happening


Hard to grasp all that energy simply just taking a right at the lights...

If an eyewall replacement occurs while in the turn wouldn't that throw a big spanner in the track?
Quoting 820. HighOnHurricanes:

One observation I wanted to post, and see if anyone more experience can clarify of debunk the theory. In several notable storms, there has been a steering push to the WSW due to high pressure in the Atlantic. In each case, it wold appear as though that push aided the storm in wrapping up.

Andrew
Katrina
Matthew
(I'm sure there are more, but those 3 came to mind quickly).

So do the atmospheric conditions that force the storm slightly southward against its natural tendency poleward help to push flow into the NW quadrant, allowing it to spin up and intensify better than a storm being steering due W or even NW?


The beta effect.


.The Beta Effect
By: Lee Grenci , 9:51 AM CDT on July 27, 2013



esterday I talked about the steering of tropical cyclones by the mean wind in a steering layer determined by the system's minimum central pressure (revisit the relevant graphic). For strong hurricanes, the steering layer spans a large portion of the troposphere. For example, the steering layer for a hurricane with minimum central pressure between 940 mb and 949 mb spans from 850 mb (roughly 5000 feet) to 250 mb (roughly 35000 feet). The mean wind in this layer (the "steering wind") accounts for roughly 80% to 90% of the hurricane's motion.

As I briefly mentioned yesterday, about 10% to 20% of the storm's motion arises from the Beta effect. You might think that forecasting the track of tropical cyclones would thus be "child's play." But modeling the Beta effect isn't easy. The Beta effect gets even more complicated when tropical cyclones are moving briskly and undergoing rapid changes in intensity. Lesson learned: Predicting the tracks of tropical cyclones, though forecasters continue to improve, is not an exact science. Sometimes, it's far from it.
Quoting 804. beell:

Southwestern periphery of the A/B ridge lifting in the 12Z GFS-from over Cuba to the northern Bahamas.


12Z 500 mb heights-valid @ 00 hrs.


@ 24 hrs
Wait. Wait. How does a retrograding low break up two ridges that are already holding hands?

And then the GFS builds the ridge back? Bologna?
Quoting 807. cowgirl2958:

Can't get image to post so here is a great link.
Link

That is a great link, thanks. Saved.
829. wpb
gfs trend east near fla. euro rubbing off ?
Quoting 818. Grothar:


What is that, Grothar? and where's the 903.8 hPa/mb coming from?

NOAA3 Mission #2 into MATTHEW
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 16:16 UTC Oct 01, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 15.05°N 70.08°W
Bearing: 252° at 368 kt
Altitude: 2876 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 30 kt at 133°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1007.6 mb


A huge image of the action :) R click/view image for larger...
Last few frames look like she is starting to stall. Anyone else see that or is it playing with us as it is reforming?

A WV image... Well good posting all. We will keep watching I guess. Time
will show us more. BB in a while.
12z UKMET takes Matthew extremely close to Florida, at 25.8N 78.8W by 144 hours.
Quoting 835. CybrTeddy:

12z UKMET takes Matthew extremely close to Florida, at 25.8N 78.8W by 144 hours.


Is that west of its' last run?
Quoting 836. GeoffreyWPB:



Is that west of its' last run?


Yes, if I'm not mistaken, but the initialization looked way off. Initialized the storm at 12.6N 73.3W at 00 hours when Matthew is currently at 13.4N 73.4W.
Wobble, wobble.

I am no professional, here, just a sort of 'weather junkie', if you will.

I am noticing a distinct wobble to at least the SW, even SSW in these last few clips, and my perception is that the center is doing a slight fujiwara with the big blob in its eastern sector. Can this perception possibly be correct?
840. MahFL
Quoting 839. MontanaZephyr:

I am no professional, here, just a sort of 'weather junkie', if you will.

I am noticing a distinct wobble to at least the SW, even SSW in these last few clips, and my perception is is that the center is doing a slight fujiwara with the big blob in its eastern sector. Can this perception possibly be correct?


No, it means the Bermuda high is stronger or further south than forecast.
841. MahFL
Looks like Matthew's eye did a loop.
Ohh boy Cone has shifted west and now it's forecast to strengthen back into a Major in the Bahamas.

This is a theoretical scenario of Matthew shifting further west would look like http://imgur.com/gallery/69Yzc
Quoting 819. VegasRain:

I remember Levi Cowan mentioning during Hermine's formation that sometimes the frictional land interaction of a storm north of a landmass can cause the storm to move Southwest toward and parallel to the coast. He discusses this at the 5:30sec mark in This YouTube Video. He also mentions that the models dont usually pick this interaction up very well.

I wonder if perhaps that is what we are seeing with Matthew at the moment where it appears that there is some WSW movement still occuring as it parellels the coast of Columbia.


Sure
Blog is locked up again it seems.
The following post requires no replies, I am seeding this information amongst those minds that try to understand hurricanes. I havent posted here since before the corporate take over of wunderground.

At the same time as the rapid intensification of this storm, the capitol of iceland turned out its street lamps because the aurora was so bright they were unneeded. Point being there has been a sharp rise in the level of electrostatic electric charge in the far upper atmosphere.

Old farts who like to watch lighting, who trust their own eyes, have noted the increase in intensity and number of lighting bolts over recent decades, and especially lately. Visualize the earth as an electrode of a van de graf generator, sourrounded by an insulating layer of dry air. This electrode is suspended in an extreme high voltage field of moving electrically charged plasma. When this plasma is exceptionally energetic, we get extraordinary auroras. The Aurora is the electric flow becoming visible when it becomes intense enough to raise an atom's electrons to a higher valence level, which then makes light when it falls back to normal.

The air acts as the dielectric insulator between the earth and the surrounding plasma flow from the sun and elsewhere... when this dielectric breaks down, there is a lighting flash. In the absence of a lighting discharge, moist conducting air will be attracted to higher than normal altitude by the identical effect as a balloon brushed on your hair will then be attracted to the wall... making for more intense storming and lighting..

The electric factor may help explain the rapid intensification, because the electrically driven energy being input to this spinning system..

PS: this would make a good PhD thesis topic...
847. vis0

Quoting 652. Grothar:



No wonder they're not concerned.
link auto-scrolls to message at my zilly blog posted there out of respect to seriousness of blog topic even if this blogbyte is NOT the active blogbyte..