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Massive tornado outbreak kills 202; 100-year flood coming on Mississippi River

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:49 PM GMT on April 28, 2011

A stunning tornado outbreak of incredible violence has left at least 202 dead across the Eastern U.S.; injuries probably number over a thousand, with 600 injured in the town of Tuscaloosa alone. The tornadoes carved huge swaths of damage, completely flattening large sections of many towns, and damage from the storms is likely to be the greatest in history for any tornado outbreak. Hardest hit was Alabama, with at least 149 dead; at least 36 were killed in neighboring Mississippi. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 160 preliminary reports of tornadoes between 8am EDT yesterday and 8am EDT today. At least 11 of these tornadoes were killer tornadoes; deaths occurred in six states. Damage from some of these storms appeared to be at least EF-4, and it is likely that there were multiple violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes. The death toll makes the April 27 - 28 outbreak the third deadliest tornado outbreak of the past 50 years, behind the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak (315 killed) and the 1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak (256 killed.)


Figure 1. Damage in Birmingham, Alabama from last night's tornado. Image posted to twitter.


Figure 2. Damage in Tuscaloosa, Alabama from last night's tornado. Image posted to twitter, photographer unknown.


Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image of the Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado.

The 3-day total of preliminary tornado reports from this outbreak is 278, close to the 323 preliminary tornado reports logged during the massive April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak. That outbreak has 155 confirmed tornadoes so far, making it the largest April tornado outbreak on record. It is unprecedented to have two such massive tornado outbreaks occur so close together. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401).


Figure 4. Satellite image of last night's storm at 8:15pm EDT April 27, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Tornado outbreak winding down today
Tornado warnings continue to be issued this morning along the cold front now pushing towards the Atlantic coast, and a tornado was reported at 7:35am EDT in McBee, South Carolina. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a large swath of the coast, from Florida to Vermont, in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather. The high instability and high wind shear that triggered so many killer tornadoes yesterday is gone, and we should see only a few weak tornadoes today. No severe storms are predicted for Friday. Saturday has a slight risk of severe weather over Oklahoma and Texas.


Figure 5. Severe weather threat for Thursday, April 28, 2011.


Figure 6. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama yesterday. Fast forward to minute four to see the worst of the storm.


Figure 8. Tornado near Empire, Alabama, moving rapidly down a hill.

Unprecedented flooding predicted on Ohio and Mississippi Rivers
This week's storm system, in combination with heavy rains earlier this month, have pushed the Ohio River and Mississippi River to near-record levels near their confluence. The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois is expected to crest at 60.5 feet on May 1. This would exceed 100-year flood stage, and be the highest flood in history, besting the 59.5' mark of 1937. Heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches have inundated the region over the past few days, and one levee breach at Black River levee near Poplar Bluff, Missouri, has resulted in the evacuation of over 500 homes. Poplar Bluff has received 15.45" of rain since Friday morning. The greatest rain gauge-measured precipitation from the storm occurred in Springdale, Arkansas, where 19.70" inches has fallen since Friday morning.


Figure 9. The latest River Flood Outlook from NOAA shows major flooding is occurring over many of the nation's major rivers.

Record 100+ year flood expected on Mississippi River
Snow melt from this winter's record snow pack across the Upper Mississippi River has formed a pulse of flood waters that is moving downstream on the Mississippi, and is currently located in Iowa. When this floodwater pulse moves south of Cairo, Illinois over the next two weeks, it will join with the record water flow coming out of the Ohio River, and create the highest flood heights ever recorded on the Mississippi, according to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service. Along a 400-mile stretch of the Mississippi, from Cairo to Natchez, Mississippi the Mississippi is expected to experience the highest flood heights since records began 100 or more years ago, at 5 of the 10 gauges on the river along this stretch. The records are predicted to begin to fall on May 3 at New Madrid, and progress downstream to Natchez by May 20. Areas that are not protected by levees can expect extensive damage from the flooding, and it is possible that the Army Corps of Engineers will have to intentionally dynamite a levee at Birds Point and New Madrid, Missouri to protect the town of Cairo from flooding.

The Mississippi River at New Madrid, MO, about 40 miles downstream of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, is currently at 44', the 3rd highest flood in history. The river is predicted to crest on Tuesday very near the all-time record height of 48 feet. The NWS warns that at this height, "Large amounts of property damage can be expected. Evacuation of many homes and businesses becomes necessary." Previous record heights at this location:

(1) 48.00 ft on 02/03/1937
(2) 44.60 ft on 04/09/1913
(3) 43.60 ft on 04/04/1975
(4) 43.50 ft on 02/16/1950
(5) 42.94 ft on 03/17/1997

The timing of the floods crests will depend upon a complex mix a factors, including how much rain falls over the next month, the possible influence of southerly winds holding up the floodwater pulses, the potential opening of flood control structures and reduction of flows from flood control reservoirs, and potential levee failures (no levee has failed on the Lower Mississippi south of the Ohio River junction since 1950, however.) The Mississippi River is expected to crest at 17 feet at New Orleans on May 22, three feet below the top of the levees. This would likely require opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway 28 miles upstream from New Orleans, to relieve pressure on the city's levees. Opening the spillway drains 250,000 cubic feet per second of flow into Lake Pontchartrain.

Helping out tornado victims
For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this month's severe weather has brought, stop by the portlight.org blog.

Related post: Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent? The answer is--we don't know.

Jeff Masters

Flood Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. flsky
Quoting WthrBearSF:
I walked out of my house here in San Francisco early this morning, and was filled with gratitude for the fact that except for the occasional earthquake, life here is rather predictable and safe. It's not lost on me today how very fortunate I am.

Just a quick "thank you" to all of you who shared your wealth of knowledge and resources over the past few days. It's much appreciated. Stay safe out there.

Second that
Text to donate $10... or donate $50 and drive your personal vehicle around the Talladega Superspeedway! I'm thinking of bringing up the minivan... I bet that peice will bust 135 noooo problem.

"riiiight"

Talladega motor speedway has donated $100,000 to the Red Cross for the relief effort. That's just awesome!

Here is a clip from the AP story:

Talladega Superspeedway officials on Thursday vowed to commit $100,000 toward Alabama’s relief efforts in the wake of devastating tornadoes — and also called on NASCAR fans to help.

Besides the financial commitment to the American Red Cross, Talladega officials said that, in return for a $50 donation, they will allow race fans to drive one lap around the high banks of the superspeedway in their personal vehicles.


Racing not in your blood? That's okay just put it on your tab... Text REDCROSS to 90999 to Give $10
Quoting TomTaylor:
Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe you are wrong.

Unlike the Saffir-Simpson Scale and Enhanced Fujita scale, the richter scale for earthquake's is a limitless scale. Meaning we could see a 10.0 on the Richter scale, or even a 20 or 30, but you will never see an EF6 or Cat 6 hurricane, unless the expand the scale.

Regarding the possible addition of a 6th category to the Saffir-Simpson Scale:


"According to Robert Simpson, there is no reason for a Category 6 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale because it is designed to measure the potential damage of a hurricane to manmade structures. If the wind speed of the hurricane is above 155 mph (249 km/h), then the damage to a building will be "serious no matter how well it's engineered".[3]"

Link


The scale is limitless, but the earth does not have enough energy or mass to generate a quake larger than about 12.0, even in the worst possible situation.

A 12.0 magnitude earthquake would fault the earth clean in half along a plane through the core, and would be 33000 times stronger than the Japan earthquake.

Any scale could theoretically be unlimited, but you still have the real world limitations of the amount of energy available.

For example, the Integrated Kinetic Energy scale for hurricanes currently stops at a 6, but that's probably because nobody actually expects a 6.1 or greater to ever be possible. However, if the expectatiosn are wrong, you can just as easily give a storm a 6.1 or God forbid even a 7.0 if it's ever necessary.
Quoting Neapolitan:
After looking at a ton of pictures and video of the damage, I'm about 80% certain that the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado will go down as an EF5 in some/many parts of its path.

FWIW, the Tuscaloosa area has been struck by 62 tornadoes since 1950 (though 13 of those were spawned by Hurricane Rita). Two of these were F5s (03/66 and 04/98), and another two were F4s (02/75 and 12/00). There were five F3s, and the rest were, of course, weaker. There have been a scattering of deaths from some of the previous storms, but the damage from yesterday's monster dwarfs the rest combined.



Dr. Greg Forbes on the Weather channel flew over the damage from the Quad-State Cell today and he said that he would give it an EF5.


He said in some cases two and three story buildings were blown completely off their foundations.
505. P451
Fukushima Disaster

Discovery Channel

TONIGHT - 10PM (in 48 minutes)



Just a heads up for those interested.
Quoting P451:
Fukushima Disaster

Discovery Channel

TONIGHT - 10PM (in 48 minutes)



Just a heads up for those interested.

Thanks!
507. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:


Hell I wouldn't want to be in anything during an E-F5. Not even a M1-Abrams tank would make me feel safe. I'm just glad we haven't gotten any of those in Florida. We are sort of a tornado alley accept for the fact that like 99% of tornadoes here are E-F0 to E-F1 lol.

2 F-4 tornadoes have tracked by my area since 1950. As far as I know they are the state's only tornadoes that strong.


You might be ok in a 60 or 70 ton Abrams!


Image Credit: NWS-Norman, OK

May 3rd, Moore, OK EF-5
An 18-ton railroad car in this area was
carried 3/4 of a mile, leaving gouge marks every 50 to 100 yards.
Quoting WthrBearSF:
I walked out of my house here in San Francisco early this morning, and was filled with gratitude for the fact that except for the occasional earthquake, life here is rather predictable and safe. It's not lost on me today how very fortunate I am.


I truly hope that life in San Francisco stays safe with no major earthquakes in the near future. Remember, Houston is still upset that L.A. is getting a space shuttle while the NASA's Johnson Space Center, heart of space exploration in this country for 50-years, doesn't get a thing.

I know it may sound crass... but if the BIG one ever does hit L.A. or San Francisco, Houston will be happy to help with search & rescue, rebuilding, etc... in exchange for our space shuttle back.
Quoting RandomText:


The scale is limitless, but the earth does not have enough energy or mass to generate a quake larger than about 12.0, even in the worst possible situation.

A 12.0 magnitude earthquake would fault the earth clean in half along a plane through the core, and would be 33000 times stronger than the Japan earthquake.

Any scale could theoretically be unlimited, but you still have the real world limitations of the amount of energy available.

For example, the Integrated Kinetic Energy scale for hurricanes currently stops at a 6, but that's probably because nobody actually expects a 6.1 or greater to ever be possible. However, if the expectatiosn are wrong, you can just as easily give a storm a 6.1 or God forbid even a 7.0 if it's ever necessary.
Correct about the earthquake and the kinetic energy thing. But I was talking about the SS hurricane scale and EF tornado scale. No hurricane or tornado will ever reach cat 6 or EF6. Unless they change/update the scale. Meanwhile, earthquakes can reach upwards of 10.0 magnitude.

That was the point I was trying to make.
Quoting P451:
Fukushima Disaster

Discovery Channel

TONIGHT - 10PM (in 48 minutes)



Just a heads up for those interested.


im not sure but, this might stream for those that don't have cable like me...

Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
Aerial view of Tuscaloosa damage.


That looks like an F5.
Not sure if this has been posted here. Take a look at the aerial footage of the damage in Alabama. Look at the bridge at 6:33! Total destruction.Link
Jesus...

Brick apartment buildings with fire walls obliterated to the ground.

Incredible.
here we go again!!
Reuters reporting at least 295 deaths. By the time the counting is done, this is likely to eclipse 1974 and 1965 for fatalities. That would make this the most fatal tornado outbreak in at least 50 years.

Reuters

The devastation is heartbreaking.

WTO
Decent line of storms across CFL with the cold front passing...
Tornado moves sign 100 miles!
Link
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
here we go again!!


Please explain for the oblivious!
The most up to date list of fatalities I could find

Fatalities by state
Alabama: 204

Tennessee: 34

Mississippi: 32

Georgia: 14

Arkansas: 12

Virginia: 11

Kentucky: 1


Total: 308

Local news says they are bringing out the cadaver dogs tomorrow. This is the deadlist severe weather event in our history.
Quoting RandomText:
Jesus...

Brick apartment buildings with fire walls obliterated to the ground.

Incredible.


fire walls are no more than double 5/8" gypsum board, shear walls are reinforced structures with plywood/osb for lateral movement.
Quoting pipelines:
The most up to date list of fatalities I could find

Fatalities by state
Alabama: 204

Tennessee: 34

Mississippi: 32

Georgia: 14

Arkansas: 12

Virginia: 11

Kentucky: 1


Total: 308

Local news says they are bringing out the cadaver dogs tomorrow. This is the deadlist severe weather event in our history.



I believe those numbers there indicate how many tornadoes where reported from each state, not the number of fatalities.
The List is # of fatalities by State as the Number of Tornadoes was mentioned above in Dr. Masters entry.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 160 preliminary reports of tornadoes between 8am EDT yesterday and 8am EDT today. At least 11 of these tornadoes were killer tornadoes; deaths occurred in six states. Damage from some of these storms appeared to be at least EF-4, and it is likely that there were multiple violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes.

Quoting WDEmobmet:



I believe those numbers there indicate how many tornadoes where reported from each state, not the number of fatalities.

No, those are definitely fatalities.

Very sad.
accuweather has the total at 280 atm.
Just watched the news -- those numbers are the known fatalities as of this evening.
or maybe im wrong Greta cant seem to get here graphics right
Quoting IFuSAYso:
accuweather has the total at 280 atm.


The statement is "at least 280".
I'm pulling from a local news source for the Alabama numbers, our governer is making it very clear that every single listed fatality has been listed by a medical examiner, and not before. I'm scared how high it's going to get....
Quoting pipelines:
I'm pulling from a local news source for the Alabama numbers, our governer is making it very clear that every single listed fatality has been listed by a medical examiner, and not before. I'm scared how high it's going to get....


recovery has not even began yet.
Regarding the post about earth quakes -- I agree. I also looked around this morning and thought about the hurricanes that we deal with.

Other than Hurricane katrina -- we rarely see that many people die, and we know when they are coming.

My heart goes out to those who are in the damaged areas.
yes Neo very sad, have alot of friends and family from that area.
Fly over video is just un real
Many thanks from the Portlight Family for the kind donations that will be helping 5 families that we've been connected with.

Also many thanx to all those who spread the word yesterday and also to everyone who rolled info during and since yesterdays deadly outbreak.

The wunderground,,where sharing is caring.


If you can, help others; if you cannot do that, at least do not harm them.
Dalai Lama


Quoting IFuSAYso:


recovery has not even began yet.


Still in search and rescue. It was stated in a press conference that recovery wont begin til late tomorrow or sat.
Quoting IFuSAYso:


recovery has not even began yet.


That's the scary part....they haven't even begun looking for the dead...
Kind of makes you wonder what will become of those numbers once we've had enough time to reach all those areas that are going unnoticed right now...
@nasahqphoto
NASA HQ PHOTO
Lightning Storms pass by Space Shuttle Endeavour. See the pic!
http://flic.kr/p/9CMo6M

Quoting WDEmobmet:



I believe those numbers there indicate how many tornadoes where reported from each state, not the number of fatalities.


That is the number of fatalities. Saw the same chart on a ABC News channel website
yea I stand corrected my apologies
Doing a kinda analysis on Land use and urban sprawl, with respect to the current outbreak, as compared to the 1974 out break. Hard to find stuff from then. Any help out there? Just tryin to understand what makes this stuff happen, on the "under the radar" side of weather...... Our radar systems have certainly improved, along with the watchers..... the various oscillation factors are where I end up short.....
Did anyone see the Fox News report they had this afternoon where the showed a whole small town wiped clean. They were in a trailer park nothing was in site with exception of a little diner were people hid in the cooler and the fire hydrants were sucked out of the ground, just lying there. The also showed a subdivision that all was left was the slabs. No debris on the street. If anyone knows the name of the town could you please advise. like to find some pics of that area. Thanks
Quoting Ossqss:
Doing a kinda analysis on Land use and urban sprawl, with respect to the current outbreak, as compared to the 1974 out break. Hard to find stuff from then. Any help out there? Just tryin to understand what makes this stuff happen, on the "under the radar" side of weather...... Our radar systems have certainly improved, along with the watchers..... the various oscillation factors are where I end up short.....


I think the answer is pretty simple. Human density has increased therefore the likely hood of a tornado of this magnitude entering a highly populated area significantly increases. The other issue is the "sit and hide" mentality we have with tornados. Building codes will not support EF3 damage in their current state, until that changes and building codes are made to protect people from EF4+ damage, that sit and wait mentality is a death sentence if you're in the path of a monster.

We knew this thing was heading towards us in Birmingham a good 30 minutes out, we even watched it tear up Tuscaloosa on live television and our local mets were nearly screaming at us that this was a monster. So people did what they have been trained to do, they sat and hid. I personally got up and drove south instead.
Quoting pipelines:


I think the answer is pretty simple. Human density has increased therefore the likely hood of a tornado of this magnitude entering a highly populated area significantly increases. The other issue is the "sit and hide" mentality we have with tornados. Building codes will not support EF3 damage in their current state, until that changes and building codes are made to protect people from EF4+ damage, that sit and wait mentality is a death sentence if you're in the path of a monster.

We knew this thing was heading towards us in Birmingham a good 30 minutes out, we even watched it tear up Tuscaloosa on live television and our local mets were nearly screaming at us that this was a monster. So people did what they have been trained to do, they sat and hid. I personally got up and drove south instead.
But if everyone in the path of the tornado tried to get out, then you would have a big traffic jam.
Roughly 300 million people in the US now (actually a bit more) versus about 200 million people in 1974. Rough estimate would be that 50% more land is in use than before.
Quoting idzrvit:
Not sure if this has been posted here. Take a look at the aerial footage of the damage in Alabama. Look at the bridge at 6:33! Total destruction.Link

tornado vs. railroad bridge








Smithville, Ms
Quoting mossyhead:
But if everyone in the path of the tornado tried to get out, then you would have a big traffic jam.


Yeah, I think the only thing we can do to prevent a disaster like this happening again is to change building codes......
we now have 5 Confirmed EF4



Smithville area wish was a strong EF4 with winds of 190mph may need too be upgrade too EF5 Rating is preliminary what evere that means



Ringgold, GA area was a EF4 with winds of 175 mph


Apison area was a EF4 winds not sure at this time


Tanner area was a EF 4 may be upgrade too EF 5 winds not sure at this time

11 deaths – Catastrophic damage in the area with many well-constructed houses flattened or blown away and hundreds of others damaged or destroyed. A large cargo container was thrown over 600 yards (560 m). Many people were injured. Survey incomplete - may have been EF5.


Phil Campbell was a EF 4 may be upgrade too EF5 winds not sure yet

7 deaths – 12 houses were flattened and over 75 others were damaged or destroyed by a violent tornado. At least 30 others were injured, some seriously. Survey incomplete, may have been stronger elsewhere along the path.



plzs note that i got the info on Wikipedia and this reporting it back here on my blog am olny puting things down on what i no for sure
*** 13 FATAL, 40 INJ *** DOZENS OF NEWLY CONSTRUCTED TWO STORY FULLY BRICK HOMES LEVELED. TREES DEBARKED. PROFESSIONAL BUILDINGS DESTROYED. ESTIMATED WINDS 190 MPH. 1/2 (MEG)

Smithville, MS Rated as EF4 by NWS
Quoting emcf30:






Smithville, Ms

Ladies and Gentlemen...

That path is likely from an EF5. Houses leveled, nothing left but a slab.
Quoting emcf30:
*** 13 FATAL, 40 INJ *** DOZENS OF NEWLY CONSTRUCTED TWO STORY FULLY BRICK HOMES LEVELED. TREES DEBARKED. PROFESSIONAL BUILDINGS DESTROYED. ESTIMATED WINDS 190 MPH. 1/2 (MEG)

Smithville, MS Rated as EF4 by NWS



is that fianl or are they still looking in too it
553. flsky
I've always wondered what it would feel like to be the one house left intact in a tornado-destroyed neighborhood....
Quoting flsky:
I've always wondered what it would feel like to be the one house left intact in a tornado-destroyed neighborhood....



what?
Quoting Tazmanian:



is that fianl or are they still looking in too it


(Smithville, Mississippi) – National Weather Service officials were surveying damage from tornadoes across the Southeast on Thursday. One of the first damage ratings to be released came from Smithville, Mississippi.

The Monroe County storm had a path length of 2.82 miles, was 1/2 mile wide one point and caused at least 13 deaths with 40 injuries. Dozens of newly constructed two story brick homes were leveled, businesses destroyed and trees were debarked. It’s believed the twister’s peak wind was 190 miles per hour which rates it as an EF-4 on the Enhanced Fajita Scale.
Quoting jeffs713:

Ladies and Gentlemen...

That path is likely from an EF5. Houses leveled, nothing left but a slab.


Thats what I thought it would be but they rated it a EF4
Quoting emcf30:


(Smithville, Mississippi) – National Weather Service officials were surveying damage from tornadoes across the Southeast on Thursday. One of the first damage ratings to be released came from Smithville, Mississippi.

The Monroe County storm had a path length of 2.82 miles, was 1/2 mile wide one point and caused at least 13 deaths with 40 injuries. Dozens of newly constructed two story brick homes were leveled, businesses destroyed and trees were debarked. It’s believed the twister’s peak wind was 190 miles per hour which rates it as an EF-4 on the Enhanced Fajita Scale.



ok then it looks like fianl report
Quoting emcf30:






Smithville, Ms


Hello emc...Smithfield is a little SE of Tupelo
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Hello emc...Smithfield is a little SE of Tupelo


Hey Eyes, Is that near the Alabama line?
Quoting emcf30:


Hey Eyes, Is that near the Alabama line?


Yes, up in the NE corner near the Ala line
I wonder why the local governments don't contract out the timber companies to come clear the fallen trees from storms. I bet they would be willing to do it for cheap considering they would make a profit from the wood and then it wouldn't be wasted either.
Quoting Tazmanian:



fianl


its spelled "final".

truly a crazy weather week.... hurricane season is gonna be crazy!
Quoting flsky:
I've always wondered what it would feel like to be the one house left intact in a tornado-destroyed neighborhood....


most state guilt.

Quoting HawkPhotographyDOTus:

hurricane season is gonna be crazy!
Based on what?
Quoting HawkPhotographyDOTus:


its spelled "final".

truly a crazy weather week.... hurricane season is gonna be crazy!



sorry i try my best not evere one is %100 in spelling
Quoting KoritheMan:

Based on what?


speculation, lol.
Strong thunderstorms coming onshore around Tampa. Penny size hail, gusty winds, and continuous lightning can be expected per the SPS released by NWS TBW
Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry i try my best not evere one is %100 in spelling


That's for sure.....me included....hi, Taz :)
Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry i try my best not evere one is %100 in spelling


its all good my friend, i understand that we have our moments. I just hate to let someone keep making a mistake that they might not be aware of.

I'm hoping this front holds together for some decent weather in the South Florida area, opinions?
570. MTWX
Quoting emcf30:


Hey Eyes, Is that near the Alabama line?

it is Smithville and it is about 20 miles north of me. Preliminary estimate rate that one as a strong EF4 possibly EF-5
flsky, u have mail.
Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry i try my best not evere one is %100 in spelling

Your doing good, Taz.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


That's for sure.....me included....hi, Taz :)



hi EYES
you're still our sweetest, taz, no matter how you spell.

Never give up.

Good evening...

I friend of mine's Mom in Jasper, AL had the only trailer left standing in the trailer park..fortunately she took refuge elsewhere
@ 541. Ossqss... Say, r u doing the forecast competition again this year?

Some of this imagery from the various tornadoes is reminding me of imagery I've seen of post Camille, Andrew, and Katrina. What's scary for me is in Camille and Katrina it was the water that did the damage. It's hard for me to imagine wind so powerful that it did in a few minutes what takes the sea a couple of hours to do...



i am geting so sick of Wikipedia 1st they had 5 confrom EF4 nados now its back down too 3 am geting sick of this
Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry i try my best not evere one is %100 in spelling


Ah, you may not be 100% in spelling, but you sure are 100% in posting relative and informative info!

And with that... Carry on.
Quoting BahaHurican:
@ 541. Ossqss... Say, r u doing the forecast competition again this year?

Some of this imagery from the various tornadoes is reminding me of imagery I've seen of post Camille, Andrew, and Katrina. What's scary for me is in Camille and Katrina it was the water that did the damage. It's hard for me to imagine wind so powerful that it did in a few minutes what takes the sea a couple of hours to do...




I agree.
I was looking at a vid earlier that showed a steel railroad bridge destroyed by the wind.
But close to that, there are trees still standing....
And in the same video, areas of forest are damaged, but not destroyed.
Nature keeps surprising me.
ahhhhhhhhhhhh make up your mine



Link
Quoting KoritheMan:

Based on what?

Quoting IFuSAYso:


speculation, lol.


pretty much, just given how active last year was, the massive heat in Europe, and the current activity with tornado's... I'm excited to see what the season brings. I'm a bit or a weather junkie here in the Margate, fl area (just north of fort lauderdale) and I'm hoping to be able to bring some really cool weather photos to the site this year.
Just FYI, if you are in a FEMA declared area, even if you have insurance, apply for FEMA assistance. Fema varies disaster to disaster due to the individual states declaration (some states reimburse generators and gas, some dont), just like NC declared, if you file for assistance and qualify, you can get unemployment.
Quoting MTWX:

it is Smithville and it is about 20 miles north of me. Preliminary estimate rate that one as a strong EF4 possibly EF-5


MSWX...did you get any damage? I have family in N Ms and Tn area...we all were very lucky, very little damage...trees and such
Quoting spathy:
I am so glad my home is concrete block construction.
Too bad the roof isnt.
Hurricanes I can deal with(hopefully not out of necessity).
I could never imagine going through the hell that we saw yesterday.
I have just been shaking my head,wincing at the images,putting my hand to my chest.
And praying over and over again the past hours.
I decided on Cypress Logs when my home was built. No 2x4 is coming through that.
Quoting IFuSAYso:
Just FYI, if you are in a FEMA declared area, even if you have insurance, apply for FEMA assistance. Fema varies disaster to disaster due to the individual states declaration (some states reimburse generators and gas, some dont), just like NC declared, if you file for assistance and qualify, you can get unemployment.


Fema only covers real property and emergency housing, the personal property and ads are agreed by the state.
Quoting IFuSAYso:


speculation, lol.
Speculation is all well and good, but absolute statements such as the one he made should be backed up with scientific fact.

EDIT: I'm keeping this post up here for anyone else to see, but I see now that Hawk actually gave reasons for his statement.
i hate too say things like this


but in oder too pass the super outbark of 1974


we need


at lest 25 Confirmed EF4 and at lest 7 EF5
Quoting HawkPhotographyDOTus:


its spelled "final".
Isn't that the way he spelled it???

LOL

Quoting HawkPhotographyDOTus:



pretty much, just given how active last year was, the massive heat in Europe, and the current activity with tornado's... I'm excited to see what the season brings. I'm a bit or a weather junkie here in the Margate, fl area (just north of fort lauderdale) and I'm hoping to be able to bring some really cool weather photos to the site this year.
Ah, Margate, home of the bestest Winn Dixie in the Broward County area... lol

Let's hope that all the excitement and cool wx photos are not of some hurricane that hit u guys [and most likely us in the Bahamas before or after].... Good 2 have u in the blog...
Quoting KoritheMan:
Speculation is all well and good, but absolute statements such as the one he made should be backed up with scientific fact.

EDIT: I'm keeping this post up here for anyone else to see, but I see now that Hawk actually gave reasons for his statement.


i agree

Quoting HawkPhotographyDOTus:


the current activity with tornado's
I actually don't think there's a positive correlation between an active severe weather season and an active Atlantic hurricane season. I've studied this topic a bit, and that's the conclusion I've come to.
Quoting Tazmanian:
i am geting so sick of Wikipedia 1st they had 5 confrom EF4 nados now its back down too 3 am geting sick of this

Patience taz...patience


Lol, don't worry in a few days they'll have it all sorted out
Taz is always a "statistics' kinda guy....all good.
Taz, I think we are more likely to pass that 1974 outbreak in terms of fatalities than in terms of # of tornadoes. I'm wondering about the long-track cell we followed in here last night, and whether it lasted long enough on the ground as a tornado to be considered a genuine Tri-Stater.
Quoting Tazmanian:
i am geting so sick of Wikipedia 1st they had 5 confrom EF4 nados now its back down too 3 am geting sick of this


Ah, have patience... 'tis the curse of the living encyclopedia. It squirms and wriggles for a while before it settles into a comfortable position. And even then, it may move now and again.

But it beats buying a new set of Britannica's every year...

:)
Quoting KoritheMan:

I actually don't think there's a positive correlation between an active severe weather season and an active Atlantic hurricane season. I've studied this topic a bit, and that's the conclusion I've come to.


the stats don't meet in the middle either. this has been a blog discussion for over a week now.
Currently watching a massive light show out to my west in the gulf of Mexico, the temperature is 79 and the dew point 74. Today by far has been the most hot and humid day Ive ever seen even for Central Florida in April since Ive been living here. We had a high of 94. Today would definitely make people believe in Global Warming here haha.

Also, lapse rates are steep and the PWAT is around 2 inches. I'm hoping these storms hold together because its going to be dry for about a week after. If they hold they will probably dump 1 to 2 inches due to very high moisture and cold air aloft.

I'm just glad I'm getting to watch strong storms without having to worry about a tornadic threat, the sounding shows a very unlikely tornado chance tonight, an isolated damaging wind gust and hail possible be we get so many of those events in the summer so just a nice storm, as long as it makes it to me :)
Quoting MrMixon:


Ah, have patience... 'tis the curse of the living encyclopedia. It squirms and wriggles for a while before it settles into a comfortable position. And even then, it may move now and again.

But it beats buying a new set of Britannica's every year...

:)



ok
Quoting KoritheMan:

I actually don't think there's a positive correlation between an active severe weather season and an active Atlantic hurricane season. I've studied this topic a bit, and that's the conclusion I've come to.
The closest I've seen from stuff posted here is that la nina may be related to both upswings in severe wx in the US and increased TC formation in the ATL basin. But even that hasn't been strongly correlated from what I've seen. There seems to be a lot of natural variation from la nina to la nina.


Alabama Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-line Winds

Emergency Declared April 27, 2011 (EM-3319) [ En Español ]



News Releases

* Apr 27, 2011: Federal Aid Programs For State Of Alabama Emergency
* Apr 27, 2011: President Declares Emergency For Alabama

* [ More News
* Region IV News
* All FEMA News
* RSS Feed icon RSS Feed ]

Resources

* Individual Assistance FOIA
* Hazards: Thunderstorms
* The Three-Step Process To Disaster Assistance
* Alabama Office of the Governor
* Alabama Emergency Management

Quoting Tazmanian:



ok


lmao

Quoting IFuSAYso:


the stats don't meet in the middle either. this has been a blog discussion for over a week now.
I guess it wouldn't hurt to mention that there is a large amount of uncertainty in this research, largely because of the scarcity and inherent speculative nature of data prior to the satellite era. As a corollary, our sample size is relatively low, as well.

Basically, there is evidence for either side.
am looking for word too this one

Tanner area wish was rated EF4 for now

but look at this


11 deaths – Catastrophic damage in the area with many well-constructed houses flattened or blown away and hundreds of others damaged or destroyed. A large cargo container was thrown over 600 yards (560 m). Many people were injured. Survey incomplete - may have been EF5.
Thanks Pat...I understand that Obama is suppose to be in T-Town tomorrow to survery the damage.
Patrap, its still not declared IA, u have to click the IA tab to verify. Link
I hope that there is no forecast for more severe weather next week for anybody!
606. MTWX
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


MSWX...did you get any damage? I have family in N Ms and Tn area...we all were very lucky, very little damage...trees and such

We were extremely lucky! We just had some trees down and a 5-8 hour power outage (depending on the neighborhood you are in). Our neighboring towns aren't so lucky... Paul wants me to call portlight in the morning, and we will see what we can do for our neighboring communities!
Quoting MrMixon:


Ah, have patience... 'tis the curse of the living encyclopedia. It squirms and wriggles for a while before it settles into a comfortable position. And even then, it may move now and again.

But it beats buying a new set of Britannica's every year...

:)
But the writing's not as polished. Got to love British editors.
608. MTWX
Quoting AllyBama:
I hope that there is no forecast for more severe weather next week for anybody!

Unfortunately our area may be looking at it again saturday night into sunday...:(
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
But the writing's not as polished. Got to love British editors.

True.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I actually don't think there's a positive correlation between an active severe weather season and an active Atlantic hurricane season. I've studied this topic a bit, and that's the conclusion I've come to.


bummer :(

I figure the heat energy that we have been seeing (going back to the higher then average atlantic SST, the russian heat wave, and what appears to be higher then normal SST in the caribean) has to be dealt with in some way.... how efficient are these frontal systems in reducing the overall surface temp of these areas?
Quoting AllyBama:
I hope that there is no forecast for more severe weather next week for anybody!


I second that notion...!!
I think a lot of the preliminary reports are going to say EF-4, until they can look at everything. Sure can't imagine the pictures I've seen being caused by anything less than that ...
# 603.

Yes Ally,,hes going to Tuscaloosa in the morning and then on to Fla for the Launch of Endeavour,,to watch the Launch with the Wounded Congresslady from Arizona whos Husband is Cmdr. Mark Kelly,,the Shuttle Cdr.
Unfortunately our area may be looking at it again saturday night into sunday...:(

NO!!!!!!!!.....I will be praying that things change for the better..
Quoting MTWX:

Unfortunately our area may be looking at it again saturday night into sunday...:(
maybe models have to come into agreement

at the moment a small slight risk area is all thats showing
Obama is "suppose" to make the "individual assistance" announcement tomorrow - that is the rumor..
617. MTWX
Quoting AllyBama:
Unfortunately our area may be looking at it again saturday night into sunday...:(

NO!!!!!!!!.....I will be praying that things change for the better..

Me too Ally.... Me too...
hmmm, I wonder if Obama is going to watch the royal wedding?..ROFL
IA will happen when substantial recovery is complete. They don't want us inspectors in the way.

Quoting BahaHurican:
The closest I've seen from stuff posted here is that la nina may be related to both upswings in severe wx in the US and increased TC formation in the ATL basin. But even that hasn't been strongly correlated from what I've seen. There seems to be a lot of natural variation from la nina to la nina.
Well, La Nina certainly does increase seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity; where the inherent variability lies, however, appears to be confined to the mean synoptic scale steering pattern.

For instance, I've noticed that in some years, La Nina tends to force a good portion of storms into Central America/Mexico, with a secondary set recurving to the east of Bermuda. While in other such years, the US bears the brunt of the season.

As for severe weather, La Nina theoretically (not sure if an actual distinct correlation has been drawn) increases the magnitude and extent of springtime severe weather in the United States, as the mean 500 mb ridge located along the western Atlantic and adjoining southeastern United States during such events funnels an influx of warm southerly winds into the Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean. Obviously, that heat in turn helps to fuel extreme severe weather events, like the one we saw yesterday.
There's a Royal Wedding?

Well they should have picked another date as tomorrow is Opening Day of Jazz fest in NOLA.

LoL
622. MTWX
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe models have to come into agreement

at the moment a small slight risk area is all thats showing

True but even a little rain will make thing worse than they are right now... Within the next week we are looking at a major flood concern too.
Quoting Patrap:
There's a Royal Wedding?

Well they should have picked another date as tomorrow is Opening Day of Jazz fest in NOLA.

LoL


lol..
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
But the writing's not as polished. Got to love British editors.


No argument there.

Quoting HawkPhotographyDOTus:

how efficient are these frontal systems in reducing the overall surface temp of these areas?
I'm pretty sure your question was rhetorical, but just in case it's not, the answer is: not very, especially during the spring/summer when arctic air is scarce to nonexistent.
Quoting MTWX:

True but even a little rain will make thing worse than they are right now... Within the next week we are looking at a major flood concern too.
true i know iam hoping april goes out on a quiet note and the first week of may stays on the weak side of things till they can get some things done in the target areas anyway weather is still going to happen just hope it nothing intense
...Yeah, I'm another one not sure what to make of some of what they are doing. Smithville may be justified; a case could probably be made either way (and the determination between EF4 and EF5 is said to be the hardest to make), but this does not look dubious AT ALL to my eyes:

Huntsville

...PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY INFORMATION FROM LIMESTONE AND MADISON COUNTIES...

SEVERAL WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WITH ANCHOR BOLTING WERE COMPLETELY WIPED CLEAN. ONE HOME HAD THE DEBRIS CARRIED OVER 300 HUNDRED YARDS WITH LARGE ITEMS CARRIED COMPLETELY AWAY. INTENSE GROUND SCARRING WAS NOTED IN THIS AREA.


How was that rated? EF4, 190 mph. Says it's preliminary, but this IMO is a rock-solid case for an upgrade and fully supported by the EF document. I actually expect that it will be, once the dust settles, but geez. There's no need to rush out a statement if it's likely to be changed later. Everyone knows this was a major event that will take time to even examine, let alone recover from.
Was about to say re: cold fronts that the "cold" part is pretty relative by the time they hit the Tropic of Cancer. Air in front of the line is, say, 80 degrees; after, it may be 75. A lot of cold fronts disappate in the area... I guess the air just gets "mixed out"...
Quoting Dropsonde:
...Yeah, I'm another one not sure what to make of some of what they are doing. Smithville may be justified; a case could probably be made either way (and the determination between EF4 and EF5 is said to be the hardest to make), but this does not look dubious AT ALL to my eyes:

Huntsville

...PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY INFORMATION FROM LIMESTONE AND MADISON COUNTIES...

SEVERAL WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WITH ANCHOR BOLTING WERE COMPLETELY WIPED CLEAN. ONE HOME HAD THE DEBRIS CARRIED OVER 300 HUNDRED YARDS WITH LARGE ITEMS CARRIED COMPLETELY AWAY. INTENSE GROUND SCARRING WAS NOTED IN THIS AREA.


How was that rated? EF4, 190 mph. Says it's preliminary, but this IMO is a rock-solid case for an upgrade and fully supported by the EF document. I actually expect that it will be, once the dust settles, but geez. There's no need to rush out a statement if it's likely to be changed later. Everyone knows this was a major event that will take time to even examine, let alone recover from.
I have a feeling a lot of the "rush" is to accomodate [read get rid of] news reporters. I guess they figure the final report has to be done anyway, so may as well just assign something to get the naggers off their back. Then when a change has to be made, I think people may feel it "sounds better" to upgrade than to downgrade.
I have a question. Are large tornadoes [like the 1 or 1 1/2 mile ones we've seen this week] always high-end wind-wise?
Quoting BahaHurican:
I have a feeling a lot of the "rush" is to accomodate [read get rid of] news reporters. I guess they figure the final report has to be done anyway, so may as well just assign something to get the naggers off their back. Then when a change has to be made, I think people may feel it "sounds better" to upgrade than to downgrade.

That's probably accurate enough. The news media, living in a world of instant information, probably don't "get it" except for the TV meteorologists themselves. For my part, I'd rather see one final, thorough, reviewed statement than these "preliminary" things that are just begging for objections from those who know something about it... but I'll try to take my own advice and be patient too.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I have a question. Are large tornadoes [like the 1 or 1 1/2 mile ones we've seen this week] always high-end wind-wise?


I've heard of small tornadoes with high winds, but never large wedge tornadoes with lower speeds. I think most wedge tornadoes are assumed to be a minimum of EF3, that's a guess though.
Thanks pipe. I admit I haven't given as much attention to the tornado end of the cyclone as I have to the hurricane....

Anyway, I'm headed off to bed. Got a full day tomorrow.

Quoting BahaHurican:

Anyway, I'm headed off to bed. Got a full day tomorrow.
Considering you just confused "cycle" with "cyclone", I think this is a most opportune time. ;)
Scratch that... Sadly, although it looks and sounds like we are going to get a huge thunderstorm with all this lighting just offshore to my west. The storms continue to collapse before moving onshore. If you look at storm total history, as well as long range loops, the line deceivingly looks like it would bring lots of heavy activity right into the Tampa Bay area, but instead the line just continues to collapse rapidly right before moving onshore.


Don't you just hate storms the completely tease you?

In fact even the NWS has been fooled too, they have continued to issue weather statements for strong storms that will move into West Central Florida. Accept they haven't and continue to fall apart right before the shore line for whatever reason.
look at the big high
Shuttle Endeavor bathed in Floodlights as it awaits tomorrows Final Launch of her and crew.

Quoting Tazmanian:
am looking for word too this one

Tanner area wish was rated EF4 for now

but look at this


11 deaths – Catastrophic damage in the area with many well-constructed houses flattened or blown away and hundreds of others damaged or destroyed. A large cargo container was thrown over 600 yards (560 m). Many people were injured. Survey incomplete - may have been EF5.


i've waiting for someone to say F5, too much destruction.
good night
be for i say good night


this is odd

Wikipedia says we now have 7 confrom nados but i dont see any any of the new added EF4s on the pages
643. RMCF
left the San Antonio at the Emergency Management Conference and driving to Birmingham,AL will i ever sleep. probably not but what else am i going to do. Will give updates tomorrow as i am driving through. Love my job.
Weather severity is a big concern with our work in building engineering. We are supposed to reflect or protect buildings from solar radiation or the building exterior will be radiated.

We imaged buildings in the infrared spectrum at sunrise to see solar impact and how fast they were radiated. Here is what it looks like in the infrared spectrum and it contradicts what meteorologists expect of building development. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isfE-B129Vg

Quoting Jedkins01:
Scratch that... Sadly, although it looks and sounds like we are going to get a huge thunderstorm with all this lighting just offshore to my west. The storms continue to collapse before moving onshore. If you look at storm total history, as well as long range loops, the line deceivingly looks like it would bring lots of heavy activity right into the Tampa Bay area, but instead the line just continues to collapse rapidly right before moving onshore.


Don't you just hate storms the completely tease you?

In fact even the NWS has been fooled too, they have continued to issue weather statements for strong storms that will move into West Central Florida. Accept they haven't and continue to fall apart right before the shore line for whatever reason.


I too am sitting here listening to the thunder, watching the radar, and, considering that this is the same batch of energy that basically destroyed a good chunk of this country, am really wondering how these storms are not even making it onshore when it seems that our weather radios should be waking every one up right now. But Nothing? Somebody please explain?
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm pretty sure your question was rhetorical, but just in case it's not, the answer is: not very, especially during the spring/summer when arctic air is scarce to nonexistent.


i kinda figured it might not be.

well, i know that hurricanes remove alot of Potential energy from the oceans. And this last system seemed like a "landcane".... so is there studies on soil tempatures before and after a major weather event? (a link in my WU mail would be cool as im getting off for the night)
Even with the imminent sunrise, it's seems like another dark day. 0.41" in the rain gauge.

Please let this severe weather be over.

Hot coffee to my friends.
Good morning.

With the death toll at an already astounding 300, Tuscaloosa's mayor says the recovery effort in his city will begin today, with cadaver dogs being called in to help find many of the missing and unaccounted for. Let's hope those missing are just folks too busy to have made their whereabouts known...

Here's a good look at the storm from a high-rise in the CBD:



@aqua: I know it's early, but--do you have anything stronger than coffee?
Quoting aquak9:
Even with the imminent sunrise, it's seems like another dark day.

Please let this severe weather be over.

Hot coffee to my friends.
tgif
@aqua: I know it's early, but--do you have anything stronger than coffee?

I quit four years ago- coffee's gonna hafta do the trick.

Coffee black thick strong like molasses. No foo-foo sweetums for me.
KSC tanking coverage of Endeavour has begun..
Link
Before the GreatTohokuEarthquake, there were 3square-kilometres of land below(average)sea-level on the Sendai plain. Now there are 16square-kilometres.
Before, there were 32square-kilometers of land below the full-tide level but above sea-level. Now there are 56 square-kilometers.
Before, there were 83square-kilometers of land below the highest high-tide level ever measured on the SendaiBay coastline. Now there are 111square-kilometres.

Near the epicenter of the March11th earthquake, the seabed surged by as much as 7metres(~23feet) and shifted ~50metres(~168feet) southeastward.

India's environmental ministry rejects construction of 4 new coastal nuclear reactors pending review of new safety measures taking into account the FukushimaDaiichi catastrophe.
Quoting aquak9:
@aqua: I know it's early, but--do you have anything stronger than coffee?

I quit four years ago- coffee's gonna hafta do the trick.

Coffee black thick strong like molasses. No foo-foo sweetums for me.
how are ya this am coffee on the table


At the edge of the path of the killer tornado sits the medical center. Could you image if it would have been a few hundred yards over.
657. IKE
5 day QPF....


Quoting aquak9:
@aqua: I know it's early, but--do you have anything stronger than coffee?

I quit four years ago- coffee's gonna hafta do the trick.

Coffee black thick strong like molasses. No foo-foo sweetums for me.

As long as the valium is not going in there, Aqua. LOL

Good morning.
Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF....



IKE, looking like many of the same areas hit by the flash flooding.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

As long as the valium is not going in there, Aqua. LOL

Good morning.


Or the Nyquil
Quoting scooster67:
I decided on Cypress Logs when my home was built. No 2x4 is coming through that.

That's a fine choice.
Quoting emcf30:


Or the Nyquil

That too.
663. IKE

Quoting cat5hurricane:

IKE, looking like many of the same areas hit by the flash flooding.
Agree.
So much for getting any updates this morning from the major news outlets
Damage in Ringgold, Ga, with a preliminary rating of EF4.

This looks like EF5 damage to me. You can see some of the remains of the houses with nothing on it, just the concrete slab
Friday Pie-day- doesn't some warm apple pie sound good? I think we could all use some.

Keeper- don't know how I feel about the new avatar- guess its better than the swirling thing you had a while back.

Just coffee...and KrispyKreme.
Alabama has been upgraded from Emergency Declaration to Major Disaster.

Link
Quoting IFuSAYso:
Alabama has been upgraded from Emergency Declaration to Major Disaster.

Link



No IA as of yet.

Link
lol
Quoting aquak9:
Friday Pie-day- doesn't some warm apple pie sound good? I think we could all use some.

Keeper- don't know how I feel about the new avatar- guess its better than the swirling thing you had a while back.

Just coffee...and KrispyKreme.


Dutch apple with old fashion vanilla ice cream.
At least it stayed dry for them - there were worries that there'd be rain on and off all day.

Certainly a good advert for tourism, not including how much it already has generated.
Quoting IFuSAYso:



No IA as of yet.

Link


Yes there is IA

Federal Aid Programs For State Of Alabama Disaster Recovery
674. IKE
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The average price of a gallon of gasoline reached
the $3.90 mark Friday, after climbing 2 cents overnight, according to a
survey by motorist group AAA.

................................................. ..................................................

Price here at my location went up to $3.89.9 a gallon yesterday. I had half a tank in my car when I filled up yesterday and it cost an even $30 to fill it up.
675. P451
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
look at the big high


Definitely don't want to see that going on this summer. Water temps begone it's all about the shear, moisture, and steering. Last year we got real lucky with steering. Some hints that this year we might not. Still early but just don't like seeing that.
Quoting IKE:
Britain gets new royal couple

Just Married!


WOOHOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I did an entire Blog entry about it with live coverage streamed and everything!
who is this blogger pretending to be Ike? That's not the Ike I know and love...
678. P451
Quoting HawkPhotographyDOTus:


bummer :(

I figure the heat energy that we have been seeing (going back to the higher then average atlantic SST, the russian heat wave, and what appears to be higher then normal SST in the caribean) has to be dealt with in some way.... how efficient are these frontal systems in reducing the overall surface temp of these areas?


The higher SSTs in the Gulf of course must be more fuel for those storms we've seen. Yet there is no direct connection between violent spring severe weather pointing towards a violent hurricane season. Different mechanisms drive each event.

The only common ground is the warmer sea water. As we've seen time and again you can have downright blistering hot sea water but if the atmospheric winds don't cooperate you don't get a tropical system. Just as we've seen you can have a blistering hot summer day with insanely high humidity but get no thunderstorm development.

So many things must go right for either event to occur that you just cannot draw a connection.

Moisture, Dust, Shear, Steering, Water Temps all very important to tropical development. If one of those parameters is a complete failure then you don't get development.

So no conclusion can be drawn between the thunderstorm development and tropical development down the road.


Still though to reiterate the inflow off of the GOM is quite a bit warmer than it's been in past years. This absolutely had to had a helping effect on the development of those thunderstorms.

One last note: Thunderstorms thrive in shear. Tropical systems do not. So on that one could conclude that such outbreaks as we've seen the past few weeks would actually point to a lack of tropical development.

A lot of gray area there as well as we're talking different regions of the planet and different time frames.

So again...no connection can be made.

Well...off to work. Play nice kids! Four nice days of sun and 70F here in the Hudson Valley region of NY State for me to enjoy.
679. IKE

Quoting cat5hurricane:

I did an entire Blog entry about it with live coverage streamed and everything!
I didn't watch it...but at least some good news. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming of gloom and doom on planet Earth.



Quoting aquak9:
who is this blogger pretending to be Ike? That's not the Ike I know and love...
You didn't pick up on the sarcasm? I just don't see why that's something that all 3 networks...CNN..MSNBC and FOX...would cover....but what do I know?
Quoting KoritheMan:

Considering you just confused "cycle" with "cyclone", I think this is a most opportune time. ;)
Actually I meant cyclone....as in tornadoes and hurricanes are both cyclones???? But yeah, I wasn't feelin' no pain at that point... lol

Quoting aquak9:
Even with the imminent sunrise, it's seems like another dark day. 0.41" in the rain gauge.

Please let this severe weather be over.

Hot coffee to my friends.
Mornin', aquak9... I did get your coffee, only about 1 hr later... got up this morning to wash some clothes while the sun shines... I am living in hopes of some p.m. showers, but I'm not holding my breath... lol

Quoting emcf30:


At the edge of the path of the killer tornado sits the medical center. Could you image if it would have been a few hundred yards over.
I know the broadcasters who took that live video on their local news programme were VERY worried at the time that the centre had been hit. It would have been yet another infrastructural snafu on top of the loss of other key infrastructural elements, even IF there had been no loss of life [not likely].

Quoting aquak9:
Friday Pie-day- doesn't some warm apple pie sound good? I think we could all use some.

Keeper- don't know how I feel about the new avatar- guess its better than the swirling thing you had a while back.

Just coffee...and KrispyKreme.
LOL, well I had fruitcake with my coffee this a.m..... my mom didn't bake any at Christmas, then decided she would use her soaked fruit this week... nothing like waking to the scent of freshly baked fruit cake... hmmm....

Quoting aquak9:
who is this blogger pretending to be Ike? That's not the Ike I know and love...
We will take him back if you are willing to pay a reasonable sum. If you are IKE what is your new med. I may need some.
682. IKE
I don't think the US will be as fortunate with hurricanes in 2011. Won't be long now and it starts. Eastern PAC starts in 2 1/2 weeks.
Shen- I want some of the New-Ike-Meds, too.

baja- ewwww!!! fruitcake??
684. IKE
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
We will take him back if you are willing to pay a reasonable sum. If you are IKE what is your new med. I may need some.
I'm mellowing with age.

32 days...
16 hours...
39 minutes...and it starts.
Quoting IKE:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The average price of a gallon of gasoline reached
the $3.90 mark Friday, after climbing 2 cents overnight, according to a
survey by motorist group AAA.

................................................. ..................................................

Price here at my location went up to $3.89.9 a gallon yesterday. I had half a tank in my car when I filled up yesterday and it cost an even $30 to fill it up.
We are up to 5.70 a gallon here. The most recent rate hike [last week - happy Easter] added almost $4.00 to a fill-up for me. And I have a tiny car by comparison with the SUVs and F150 type trucks Bahamians seem to favor. One guy I was talking to yesterday says it costs him well over $100 to fill his truck....
Good morning everyone! TGIF whoo hooo!
Quoting aquak9:
who is this blogger pretending to be Ike? That's not the Ike I know and love...
Hey, I'm sure there's some sarcasm in there somewhere... either that or Ike is a sucker for young love... lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
We are up to 5.70 a gallon here. The most recent rate hike [last week - happy Easter] added almost $4.00 to a fill-up for me. And I have a tiny car by comparison with the SUVs and F150 type trucks Bahamians seem to favor. One guy I was talking to yesterday says it costs him well over $100 to fill his truck....

Lot of rugged terrain over there where you stay?
The sad death toll has reached 313. The 1974 Super Outbreak killed 319 (officially), so it seems fairly certain it will drop to second place. Obviously forecasting wasn't as good back then, so people were caught unaware. But today's denser population and the fact that some of the tornadoes tore through heavily-populated urban areas seems to be an unhappy equalizer...
690. IKE

Quoting BahaHurican:
We are up to 5.70 a gallon here. The most recent rate hike [last week - happy Easter] added almost $4.00 to a fill-up for me. And I have a tiny car by comparison with the SUVs and F150 type trucks Bahamians seem to favor. One guy I was talking to yesterday says it costs him well over $100 to fill his truck....
Imagine a major cane this summer in the western GOM? Gas prices would hit the roof.
Quoting aquak9:
Shen- I want some of the New-Ike-Meds, too.

baja- ewwww!!! fruitcake??
Yeah, best way to have it is fresh right out of the oven.... lol, and it's a rich, dark, cake made with applesauce, so it's moist and flavorful.... none of that flaky pastry filled with "fat"... lol

[trying hard to convince myself that cake for breakfast is a GOOD thing.... lol]
692. IKE

Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, I'm sure there's some sarcasm in there somewhere... either that or Ike is a sucker for young love... lol
lol.
693. Jax82
Earthquakes, Tsunami's, Super Tornado Outbreaks, 100yr Floods, Snowstorms, Fires, Nuclear Meltdowns, $4 gasoline, Middle East uprising. The only thing left is Major Hurricane Hits U.S. to add to this catastrophic year we're having. :-\
694. IKE

Quoting Neapolitan:
The sad death toll has reached 313. The 1974 Super Outbreak killed 319 (officially), so it seems fairly certain it will drop to second place. Obviously forecasting wasn't as good back then, so people were caught unaware. But today's denser population and the fact that some of the tornadoes tore through heavily-populated urban areas seems to be an unhappy equalizer...
Terrible.

................................................. .................................

R U kidding me?

Crowds await their first kiss
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Lot of rugged terrain over there where you stay?
Yeah, you have to have real power to climb the steep 80 ft mountain ridge on the north side of New Providence....

Really, though, it's the ridiculous roads here... I am ashamed to admit my nationality sometimes when I ride on the main street of the island; the world famous Bay St is rifted like an earthquake zone....
Quoting IKE:

Imagine a major cane this summer in the western GOM? Gas prices would hit the roof.
Let's not go there. $5.00 used to be the roof.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Scratch that... Sadly, although it looks and sounds like we are going to get a huge thunderstorm with all this lighting just offshore to my west. The storms continue to collapse before moving onshore. If you look at storm total history, as well as long range loops, the line deceivingly looks like it would bring lots of heavy activity right into the Tampa Bay area, but instead the line just continues to collapse rapidly right before moving onshore.


Don't you just hate storms the completely tease you?

In fact even the NWS has been fooled too, they have continued to issue weather statements for strong storms that will move into West Central Florida. Accept they haven't and continue to fall apart right before the shore line for whatever reason.
An inversion set up over central florida early last night, hampering the storms as they moved off the warm waters.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The sad death toll has reached 313. The 1974 Super Outbreak killed 319 (officially), so it seems fairly certain it will drop to second place. Obviously forecasting wasn't as good back then, so people were caught unaware. But today's denser population and the fact that some of the tornadoes tore through heavily-populated urban areas seems to be an unhappy equalizer...

The heavily populated density locales that these very wide, powerful twisters tore through (esp the EF4or EF5 Tuscaloosa-Pleasant Grove-Birmingham twister) really seems to be the difference between what set this one apart from 1974.

Okay, enough weather. Back to the wedding.
699. IKE

Quoting BahaHurican:
Let's not go there. $5.00 used to be the roof.
I think it would go to $6+ a gallon here if that happened. Living in very shaky times with the economy.
Quoting Jax82:
Earthquakes, Tsunami's, Super Tornado Outbreaks, 100yr Floods, Snowstorms, Fires, Nuclear Meltdowns, $4 gasoline, Middle East uprising. The only thing left is Major Hurricane Hits U.S. to add to this catastrophic year we're having. :-\
Let's not go there. Thinking about that ridiculous death toll is bad enough. :(
Quoting Ameister12:
Damage in Ringgold, Ga, with a preliminary rating of EF4.

This looks like EF5 damage to me. You can see some of the remains of the houses with nothing on it, just the concrete slab


Last evening I kept the video that follows ten miles of the Tuscaloosa tornado's path on one monitor while I "flew" the path in Google Earth on another. Try it yourself and you will see that there are many structures in Google Earth that are nothing but barren slabs in the video. It wasn't an EF4 the entire time--it may have even been an EF3 at some points--but in my opinion there is clear evidence of EF5 damage scattered along the route.

Then again, what do I know? ;-)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, you have to have real power to climb the steep 80 ft mountain ridge on the north side of New Providence....

Really, though, it's the ridiculous roads here... I am ashamed to admit my nationality sometimes when I ride on the main street of the island; the world famous Bay St is rifted like an earthquake zone....

LOL. Yeah, didn't think they surpassed the 100 foot mark.
Just read a little snippet about the "royal wedding". They seem like nice enough couple. Hope they have a long AND happy marriage....

Quoting cat5hurricane:

LOL. Yeah, didn't think they surpassed the 100 foot mark.
They prolly used to approach 100 ft, but u know pple around here... they are dedicated to making Isaiah's prophesy about "Every valley shall be exalted, and every mountain and hill shall be made low" a reality in our lifetime... lol

I don't think pple around here think much of the value of a "hilltop experience" for making storm surge a surviveable fact of life.... lol
Quoting DestinJeff:
And to think I expected to wake up this morning to all the world's troubles solved with but one kiss.
You think she is telling him what to wear yet?
Well, I hope she's still at the point where wearing anything is a moot point... lol
Alabama has a Facebook page for lost or missing.Link
Quoting DestinJeff:
I don't know if I should feel ashamed or proud of my lack of interest in the royal wedding.
Jeff, I think I'm with Ike... it's just about the only "happy" news this a.m..... at least this particular prince won't have the raid the exchequer for his fribbles and foibles... lol
711. IKE

Quoting BahaHurican:
Jeff, I think I'm with Ike... it's just about the only "happy" news this a.m..... at least this particular prince won't have the raid the exchequer for his fribbles and foibles... lol
 But I wonder if his wife will be chased by the paparazzi? Judging by the coverage and interest I would say yes.
Quoting IKE:

Imagine a major cane this summer in the western GOM? Gas prices would hit the roof.


Imagine a Major Hurricane hitting Miami, Houston, Tampa, or New York.


This may have been posted already. Zoom in and you can clearly see the paths of the tornados embedded in the earth. WOW
(TheWeatherSpace.com) -- On Saturday will be the next day of severe weather in the Southern Plains regions into the Ozarks.

It will be a mixed bag of an atmosphere as the Tornado Risk Analysis Model has been ran ahead of the normality of its schedule, to peer into the atmosphere across the area.

It has found some risk zones over the day and the evening/early night for the area and those zones do include Northern Texas, Southern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana.

One thing that caught my eye is it detecting Northern Louisiana, out ahead of the main line. This could be a boundary that fires storms off during the afternoon there. Any storm firing with a weaker cap in the area will have a chance of tornadoes in Northern Louisiana, flow moving southwest to northeast.

As for the main line of storms. T.R.A.M. indicates a solid line forming from North Texas through Southeastern Oklahoma and into Western and Northern Arkansas later on Saturday evening as the cap breaks of the area.
(Click for Image)

One thing that I did note is the wind fields at 18,000 feet. They are running along the same direction as the orientation of the line. This means that storms will form and run into each other one after another, causing more of a hail/wind threat than tornado during their mature stages. This is good for residents in Arkansas to not deal with a tornado outbreak but not with the flooding concern.

As storms build along the line they will move southwest to northeast across the area, which in term will cause what is called training and this is a flooding concern for areas the storms move over, one after another.

The winds run 'slightly' parallel in Northern Arkansas, but just enough veer to introduce a chance of tornadoes in the embedded rotation zones on the northeast section of the line, which is North Central Arkansas.

Best area for tornadoes will be where the line breaks, which T.R.A.M. is indicating back in the Wichita Falls, TX zones along the dryline on Saturday evening or just north of the Dallas/Fort Worth zones at the end of the storm line.

Really cannot go into specifics anymore due to the change that could happen but if in Southeast Oklahoma to West/North Arkansas s I'd keep an eye on the potential of severe thunderstorms with the reality of training, heavy rains for a flood concern in areas already hit.
716. flsky
Quoting Jax82:
Earthquakes, Tsunami's, Super Tornado Outbreaks, 100yr Floods, Snowstorms, Fires, Nuclear Meltdowns, $4 gasoline, Middle East uprising. The only thing left is Major Hurricane Hits U.S. to add to this catastrophic year we're having. :-\

Kinda seems like it should be 2012 instead of 2011, doesn't it! haha
717. IKE
I've watched the 7 minute Tuscaloosa download quite a bit. Some observations.....

(1)What is the noise in the vehicle that you hear? He cuts it off near the end of the download.

(2)It appears to be 2 separate tornadoes....one passes to his right 3-4 minutes into the download....he then turns his camera back to his left and there is the incredible footage of tornado #2.
This is disturbing.
Emily Burkhalter Myers
I saw this on a status update: "In Cullman Alabama - we were surveying the damage of our home and heard a baby crying. We found it in the ruble and it doesnt belong to us or any of our surrounding neighbors." If anyone has any information, I would like to know if they found the parents and if the baby is ok....
11 minutes ago via Android · Like ·

Face book page Link
In Memory of people who lost their life
Ike, could you please post the video or link to which you are referring to, Thanks
720. Jax82
Quoting flsky:

Kinda seems like it should be 2012 instead of 2011, doesn't it! haha


Yea no kidding! Cant we all just have sunny skies with a light wind? ;)
721. IKE

Quoting emcf30:
Ike, could you please post the video or link to which you are referring to, Thanks
It's in the blogging of Dr. Masters above^^^^^
Guys, I'm from Birmingham, 6 miles south of the main damage path. Not sure if it's being reported yet nationally, but rescue crews have been finding bodies in trees, hallways, bathtubs, and even underground basements in Pleasant Grove. For many, the storm was going to be a killer no matter what. EF5 damage in spots. I've seen enough talk concerning mobile homes. These were well build structures with underground basements. And people still died.
Quoting emcf30:
Ike, could you please post the video or link to which you are referring to, Thanks


Ok thanks
724. IKE

Quoting bingcrosby:
Guys, I'm from Birmingham, 6 miles south of the main damage path. Not sure if it's being reported yet nationally, but rescue crews have been finding bodies in trees, hallways, bathtubs, and even underground basements in Pleasant Grove. For many, the storm was going to be a killer no matter what. EF5 damage in spots. I've seen enough talk concerning mobile homes. These were well build structures with underground basements. And people still died.
I can just imagine...the force of those tornadoes was horrible.

I'm surprised there's not more dead.
bad roach problem this yr why? orange county schools are invested too. e.cen fl.
726. IKE
From ABC 33/40 in Birmingham.....

BIRMINGHAM - AL -
More than one million customers
of Alabama Power, the Tennessee Valley Authority and smaller rural
cooperatives are without power because of Wednesday's deadly storms.
Alabama Power reports that early Friday morning there were still 250,000 customers without power after Wednesday's storms.
At the peak, the tornadoes and storms knocked out services to more than 412,229 customers in the state.
Thursday afternoon the Alabama Rural Electric
Association reported 232,000 of its customers were out of power.  TVA
reported 641,000 homes and businesses were without service as of 6:00pm
Thursday. 
All of the electric companies in the state
are struggling to rebuild entire sections of their power grids.  Alabama
Power reports it has 6,300 people working to restore service.  Crews
have been called in to help from other companies in Illinois, Indiana,
Ohio, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri, Michigan and
Wisconsin.
TVA reports that 70 large transmission lines
are out of service, including a large portion of the major lines serving
North Alabama and Mississippi.  Those problems take much longer to
repair than the power poles and lines that snapped across large parts of
the state.
Alabama Power reports that all customers in
Southeast and Southwest parts of the state are back on line.  But in
Central and North Alabama, it's a different story entirely.
Quoting IKE:
I've watched the 7 minute Tuscaloosa download quite a bit. Some observations.....

(1)What is the noise in the vehicle that you hear? He cuts it off near the end of the download.

(2)It appears to be 2 separate tornadoes....one passes to his right 3-4 minutes into the download....he then turns his camera back to his left and there is the incredible footage of tornado #2.


I believe the noise is coming from the radio it sounded like it went off the air in the beginning of the video. He never turned it off until the end.
728. IKE

Quoting emcf30:


I believe the noise is coming from the radio it sounded like it went off the air in the beginning of the video. He never turned it off until the end.
Or maybe a fan? Maybe it's his AC fan.
Quoting IKE:
I've watched the 7 minute Tuscaloosa download quite a bit. Some observations.....

(1)What is the noise in the vehicle that you hear? He cuts it off near the end of the download.

(2)It appears to be 2 separate tornadoes....one passes to his right 3-4 minutes into the download....he then turns his camera back to his left and there is the incredible footage of tornado #2.


No clue on #1.

On #2, it is the same tornado, he turned around a bit, likely to point away from the storm. I think the guy filming is a local resident, as he seems VERY shaken afterwards (crying, possibly) as he was driving towards the residential area.
My friend's father was just found.....he didn't make it. Great man, 20+ years a pastor helped a lot of people, from Pleasant Grove. This is just horrible.....I can't believe this.
Good morning folks. I find this goes well with my morning coffee, but everyone has their own preferences of course...

Spirit finds fresh morning and the dew of precious things
Hope is a phoenix building wings to fly
And what we wish shall be
Like a breathe of fresh air
Safe and secret powers
That no love can spare

Move away from your western guns
Travel towards eastern suns
Far above all earthly goals
A pledge for creation's soul




PS - sorry for the off topic post, but the lyrics seemed appropriate for the subject of the day. Plus, it's Friday and I figured some might appreciate something a little uplifting.
732. IKE

Quoting pipelines:
My friend's father was just found.....he didn't make it. Great man, 20+ years a pastor helped a lot of people, from Pleasant Grove. This is just horrible.....I can't believe this.
I am so sorry for him and everyone affected. What a tragic way to die.



Quoting jeffs713:


No clue on #1.

On #2, it is the same tornado, he turned around a bit, likely to point away from the storm. I think the guy filming is a local resident, as he seems VERY shaken afterwards (crying, possibly) as he was driving towards the residential area.
I see it exit to his right...but his vehicle stays going left of it....then his camera goes back left to it again? I never see his vehicle turn back toward it as he's moving away from the first tornado viewing.

If he did turn back he's beyond sane at that point.
Yea I re-listened to it. The broadcasters were saying they were going to stay on air as long as the could at at 24 sec into the video it cut off and went to static and dead air wave noise
As of 6:51 AM Central Time

Fatalities by state

Alabama: 213

Tennessee: 34

Mississippi: 32

Georgia: 15

Arkansas: 13

Virginia: 11

Kentucky: 1

Total: 319
Quoting pipelines:
My friend's father was just found.....he didn't make it. Great man, 20 years a pastor helped a lot of people, from Pleasant Grove. This is just horrible.....I can't believe this.

I am deeply saddened by your loss. Him, his family and loved ones will be in my prayers.
Quoting IKE:

I can just imagine...the force of those tornadoes was horrible.

I'm surprised there's not more dead.


I had a friend that went to Pleasant Grove directly after the storm to look for a cousin. Could not locate his street. Finally found it based on some mailboxes that were untouched. The slab on the house was wiped clean. Luckily, his cousin wasn't even in town when it hit. My friend served our country in Iraq and he said it really did look like a warzone with people in the streets and limbs missing. It's crazy that even though I'm 6 miles south of the devastation, I still have insulation/roofing/siding in my front yard.
As to #2 Ike, I think it is the same Tornado. He is driving thru the parking lot and turns so he could find the way out to follow it or capture the damage. He just re positions his camera to keep filming it. He is obviously shaken towards the end.
738. IKE

Quoting emcf30:
Yea I re-listened to it. The broadcasters were saying they were going to stay on air as long as the could at at 24 sec into the video it cut off and went to static and dead air wave noise
You could be right about that. It just sounded odd.
739. IKE

Quoting bingcrosby:


I had a friend that went to Pleasant Grove directly after the storm to look for a cousin. Could not locate his street. Finally found it based on some mailboxes that were untouched. The slab on the house was wiped clean. Luckily, his cousin wasn't even in town when it hit. My friend served our country in Iraq and he said it really did look like a warzone with people in the streets and limbs missing. It's crazy that even though I'm 6 miles south of the devastation, I still have insulation/roofing/siding in my front yard.
That's incredible.

This one is going to take a long times for folks to get over...if ever.
Quoting IKE:

You could be right about that. It just sounded odd.


You know what is weird, I watched that video 2 to 3 times before you made the comments this morning, and did not even notice that noise. I was just sitting here mesmerized by the whole situation. Such a amazing demonstration of mother nature but yet so devastating and sad.
Have any of you seen thisLink?

Pretty sobering list....Even if most of those people show up safe and sound, my heart goes out to all those loved ones waiting there, with no way of knowing...
Sounds like mic was set too high. Getting feedback from the camera's electronics.


Quoting emcf30:
Yea I re-listened to it. The broadcasters were saying they were going to stay on air as long as the could at at 24 sec into the video it cut off and went to static and dead air wave noise
Quoting emcf30:
This is disturbing.
Emily Burkhalter Myers
I saw this on a status update: "In Cullman Alabama - we were surveying the damage of our home and heard a baby crying. We found it in the ruble and it doesnt belong to us or any of our surrounding neighbors." If anyone has any information, I would like to know if they found the parents and if the baby is ok....
11 minutes ago via Android · Like ·

Face book page Link
In Memory of people who lost their life
This reminds me of stories I heard from the '70s of pple being set down, unharmed, several miles away from where the tornado picked them up, in their totalled cars. A baby is light enough to be transported.

This is getting more and more bizarre...

Quoting pipelines:
My friend's father was just found.....he didn't make it. Great man, 20+ years a pastor helped a lot of people, from Pleasant Grove. This is just horrible.....I can't believe this.
Really, REALLY sad to hear this...

Good morning everyone. Well, I for one, got up early to see the Royal Wedding. And for what it is worth, several of the British interviewees expressed their condolences and thoughts for the people in the south US. Even in their celebrations, they are conscious of our trials. My thoughts and prayers are with the victims of this horrible tragedy.
(quietly lurking here...sadly)
My mom and aunt are driving up to get my cousins from Tuscaloosa. Their graduation at UA has been cancelled until August or Sept. if I understood her correctly. Their apartment was severely damaged and vehicles were destroyed. They were one of the lucky ones.
747. IKE

Quoting emcf30:


You know what is weird, I watched that video 2 to 3 times before you made the comments this morning, and did not even notice that noise. I was just sitting here mesmerized by the whole situation. Such a amazing demonstration of mother nature but yet so devastating and sad.
That video and the one's of the tsunami in Japan are beyond just about anything I've ever seen.

Think I'll go mow my front yard and think about things for awhile.
Have they released a count of the estimated persons missing for this disaster? I know its probably almost impossible this early into the event
Smithville MS Tornado just officially upgrade to EF5
First EF5 rating out in Monroe County, MS. And it's not even for the storm that tracked from Tuscaloosa -> Birmingham.
That list is sad, but not nearly as sad as the one the authorities in New Zealand have been keeping from the Feb. earthquake.

Unfortunately, there's likely a list like that for this tornado outbreak too... :(
Quoting emcf30:
Smithville MS Tornado just officially upgrade to EF5
Where did you hear that?
Quoting emcf30:
Smithville MS Tornado just officially upgrade to EF%

you mean EF5?
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
812 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2011

...PRELIMINARY RARE EF-5 TORNADO IN MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI...

AFTER A REVIEW OF THE DAMAGE PHOTOS TAKEN DURING THURSDAY/S GROUND
SURVEY AND CONSULTATION WITH NATIONAL EXPERTS...THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS UPGRADED THE SMITHVILLE TORNADO
RATING TO EF-5 DAMAGE. THIS IS THE HIGHEST RATING FOR TORNADO
DAMAGE AND THE FIRST EF-5 OR F-5 IN MISSISSIPPI SINCE THE
CANDLESTICK PARK TORNADO NEAR JACKSON ON MARCH 3RD 1966.


* COUNTY/COUNTIES: MONROE

* LOCATION/TIME OF EVENT: SMITHVILLE AT 344 PM EDT

* BEGINNING POINT: 34.0517, -88.4236

* ENDING POINT: 34.0731, -88.3814

* RATING: EF-5

* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 205 MPH

* PATH LENGTH: 2.82 MILES

* MAXIMUM WIDTH: 1/2 MILE

* FATALITIES: 14

* INJURIES: 40

* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: 18 HOMES DESTROYED...2 BUSINESSES /POST
...PRELIMINARY RARE EF-5 TORNADO IN MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI...

AFTER A REVIEW OF THE DAMAGE PHOTOS TAKEN DURING THURSDAY/S GROUND
SURVEY AND CONSULTATION WITH NATIONAL EXPERTS...THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS UPGRADED THE SMITHVILLE TORNADO
RATING TO EF-5 DAMAGE. THIS IS THE HIGHEST RATING FOR TORNADO
DAMAGE AND THE FIRST EF-5 OR F-5 IN MISSISSIPPI SINCE THE
CANDLESTICK PARK TORNADO NEAR JACKSON ON MARCH 3RD 1966.

* COUNTY/COUNTIES: MONROE

* LOCATION/TIME OF EVENT: SMITHVILLE AT 344 PM EDT

* BEGINNING POINT: 34.0517, -88.4236

* ENDING POINT: 34.0731, -88.3814

* RATING: EF-5

* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 205 MPH

* PATH LENGTH: 2.82 MILES

* MAXIMUM WIDTH: 1/2 MILE

* FATALITIES: 14

* INJURIES: 40

* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: 18 HOMES DESTROYED...2 BUSINESSES /POST
OFFICE AND POLICE STATION/ DESTROYED...8 HOMES WITH MAJOR
DAMAGE...7 BUSINESSES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE...44 HOMES WITH MINOR
DAMAGE...AND WATER SYSTEM DESTROYED. MOST TREES EITHER SNAPPED
OR TWISTED AND DEBARKED. MOST THE HOMES DESTROYED WERE WELL
BUILT...TWO STORIES...LESS THAN TEN YEARS OLD AND BOLTED DOWN TO
THEIR FOUNDATIONS. AN 1965 CHEVY PICKUP TRUCK PARKED IN FRONT
ONE OF THE DESTROYED HOMES HAS NOT BEEN FOUND. ALL APPLIANCES
AND PLUMBING FIXTURES IN THE MOST EXTREME DAMAGE PATH SHREDDED
OR MISSING.



May need to click through "previous version" of this Link to see this specific one.
In the 7:45 min video posted above what is really creepy is that around the 4:30- 4:45 point it looks like there is a "face" (two eyes and a mouth) in the tornado cloud. Kind of reminds me of 911 and the "face" that people though they saw in the smoke cloud when the towers fell. I guess you can see anything if you *want* to see it, I probably shouldn't give any of the crazies any more ammo. This is tragic enough without me adding a conspiracy slant to it.
Quoting FtMyersgal:

you mean EF5?

I would say that is a yes, but I'm not expert. The number 5 and the % sign are on the same key.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Where did you hear that?


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
812 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2011

...PRELIMINARY RARE EF-5 TORNADO IN MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI...

AFTER A REVIEW OF THE DAMAGE PHOTOS TAKEN DURING THURSDAY/S GROUND
SURVEY AND CONSULTATION WITH NATIONAL EXPERTS...THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS UPGRADED THE SMITHVILLE TORNADO
RATING TO EF-5 DAMAGE. THIS IS THE HIGHEST RATING FOR TORNADO
DAMAGE AND THE FIRST EF-5 OR F-5 IN MISSISSIPPI SINCE THE
CANDLESTICK PARK TORNADO NEAR JACKSON ON MARCH 3RD 1966.

* COUNTY/COUNTIES: MONROE

* LOCATION/TIME OF EVENT: SMITHVILLE AT 344 PM EDT

* BEGINNING POINT: 34.0517, -88.4236

* ENDING POINT: 34.0731, -88.3814

* RATING: EF-5
OK, I gotta run. This is going to be a rough day for a LOT of people... ya'll stay safe.

Quoting cat5hurricane:

I would say that is a yes, but I'm not expert. The number 5 and the % sign are on the same key.


Sorry, went back to modify it as soon as I noticed it, sipping coffee
Nevermind just saw link. Thanks.
Portlight Disaster Relief


Please help in any way one can

The needs are great, as the images here show so vividly.

Tornado Impact Images,,







If you can, help others; if you cannot do that, at least do not harm them.
Dalai Lama
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I would say that is a yes, but I'm not expert. The number 5 and the % sign are on the same key.

Yes, and I see emcf edited his post at the same time I was posting. emcf is sure quick!
Guess who's getting more rain?

Link

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
813 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2011

...FRIDAY STORM SURVEY AND DAMAGE ASSESSMENT PLAN OF THE DAY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WILL CONTINUE THE ASSESSMENT
OF STORM DAMAGE FROM A TRAGICALLY HISTORIC DAY OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY
AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. A NATIONALLY
RECOGNIZED STORM DAMAGE EXPERT WILL ASSIST US IN EXAMINING THE
LOCATIONS OF THE MOST EXTREME DAMAGE TO ENSURE WE PROVIDE THE MOST
ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF THIS EVENT AS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO REVIEW THE RESULTS OF YESTERDAYS SURVEYS AND WILL
PUBLISH INFORMATION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE REGARDING THE SUMTER TO
SHELBY COUNTY SUPERCELL TRACKS.

AT THIS TIME...STORM SURVEYS ARE BEING PLANNED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES:

TEAM ONE: JEFFERSON COUNTY EAST OF I-65 TO ST. CLAIR...CALHOUN AND
CHEROKEE COUNTIES SUPERCELL TRACK OUTBOUND. REVERSE ORDER
PLUS TUSCALOOSA COUNTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FROM THE MORNING
STORMS ON THE RETURN TRACK.

Looks like they will assess the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado today.
We were having a conversation on here last night reference the Smithville Tornado. The fire hydrants were sucked out of the ground. Also, there was a subdivision there that had new, well built brick homes that all that is left is the concrete slabs. I along with others were surprised that they rated it yesterday as a EF4. I guess numbers don't mean crap when you lost your family, friends, and every thing else you own.
Quoting emcf30:
We were having a conversation on here last night reference the Smithville Tornado. The fire hydrants were sucked out of the ground. Also, there was a subdivision there that had new, well built brick homes that all that is left is the concrete slabs. I along with others were surprised that they rated it yesterday as a EF4. I guess numbers don't mean crap when you lost your family, friends, and every thing else you own.
Perhaps by receiving a EF 5 rating people will become more aware of the destruction there, as from what I've heard on the news, it seems to have not as talked about in terms of other damage to other locations. Hopefully they will receive more aid now.
I think because EF5s are so rare and get hyped so much by the media, it's better to upgrade it after you're 100% sure then to downgrade it. The last thing you want is the media to sensationalize things more than it already has been...
769. Jax82
Location(s) Damage Survey Status
Hackelburg Being Finalized
Other portions of Marion, Lamar, and Fayette Counties Surveys Ongoing
Pickens County into Northern Tuscaloosa County Friday 4/29 (Aerial)
Walker and Blount Counties Friday 4/29 (Aerial)
Tuscaloosa Ongoing (will likely take several days)
Jefferson County/Birmingham Metro Ongoing (will likely take several days)
Western portions of Tuscaloosa-Birmingham Supercell (Sumter and Green Counties) Late Thursday 4/28 and Friday 4/29
Eastern portions of Tuscaloosa-Birmingham Supercell (Saint Claire to Cherokee County) Survey Planned for Friday 4/29
Sumter-Green-Hale-Bibb-Shelby Counties Ongoing
Pell City-Talladega-Calhoun-Cleburne Counties Friday 4/29 or Saturday 4/30
Marengo (continuation from Choctaw County) Being Finalized
Perry-Dallas-Chilton Counties Begin Friday 4/29 or Saturday 4/30
Autauga-Elmore-Tallapoosa-Chambers (including Dadeville) Survey planned for Friday 4/29
Quoting IKE:
I've watched the 7 minute Tuscaloosa download quite a bit. Some observations.....

(1)What is the noise in the vehicle that you hear? He cuts it off near the end of the download.

(2)It appears to be 2 separate tornadoes....one passes to his right 3-4 minutes into the download....he then turns his camera back to his left and there is the incredible footage of tornado #2.

The noise I'm not sure of. But as to the rest, it's the same tornado. The video starts with the car in the parking lot on the west side of the University Mall, and with the camera facing west-southwest across McFarland Boulevard (which runs north-south) and the Midtown Village shopping center. The driver at first moves south to a point roughly 1000' feet south of 15th Street (which runs east-west; aka Veterans Memorial Parkway). As the tornado continues moving at about 70 degrees, it passes just to the north of the McFarland/15th Street intersection. The driver shoots video southward for a bit, then turns the car and the camera around and starts heading north through the parking lot. He eventually goes through the drive-thru at the Regions Bank on the southeast corner of the intersection, before heading east for a bit, and is clearly astonished by the destruction on the north side of the street behind the RaceTrac gas station (which awning you see).

Had the storm passed just a hundred yards farther south, both Midtown Village and University Mall would have been destroyed beyond any likely repair.

Probably more than you wanted to know, but, well, there you go...
Complete Update





Quoting emcf30:
We were having a conversation on here last night reference the Smithville Tornado. The fire hydrants were sucked out of the ground. Also, there was a subdivision there that had new, well built brick homes that all that is left is the concrete slabs. I along with others were surprised that they rated it yesterday as a EF4. I guess numbers don't mean crap when you lost your family, friends, and every thing else you own.


Bear in mind that "new, well built brick homes" are not masonry structures; they are wood frame with brick facade typically, meaning that they are very susceptible to wind differential and straight line wind. A solid, re-inforced masonry or concrete structure will withstand tremendous pressures that brick veneer on wood framing will not. A decent EF2 will take out a brand new brick-on-wood-frame structure and leave nothing but the slab...
Nea, sounds like you did what I did, I watched the video on one computer and tracked the movement on google earth on another. You definitely pay a great deal of attention to detail for sure.
Quoting Floodman:


Bear in mind that "new, well built brick homes" are not masonry structures; they are wood frame with brick facade typically, meaning that they are very susceptible to wind differential and straight line wind. A solid, re-inforced masonry or concrete structure will withstand tremendous pressures that brick veneer on wood framing will not. A decent EF2 will take out a brand new brick-on-wood-frame structure and leave nothing but the slab...

You got it, Flood. Brick veneer construction is essentially a wood frame home, for most residential structures, especially down South. Commercial buildings typically see more of the solid, more durable construction for structural support.


Alabama Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-line Winds

Emergency Declared April 27, 2011 (EM-3319) [ En Español ]



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* Apr 27, 2011: Federal Aid Programs For State Of Alabama Emergency
* Apr 27, 2011: President Declares Emergency For Alabama

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Small but interesting variation between the two Gulf loop maps, Lake Okeechobee is much cooler in this years map, does that relate to rainfall received or another factor?.
Anything worth doing- is worth OVERDOING
Quoting emcf30:
Nea, sounds like you did what I did, I watched the video on one computer and tracked the movement on google earth on another. You definitely pay a great deal of attention to detail for sure.

Yeah, I do that a lot after disasters; I have to to better help myself understand what's happened. It's easier for me to wrap my mind around it when such a catastrophe is more concrete than just an abstract story in an unknown place on the news. On the same nite: Google Earth--especially where the Street View cameras have been--is amazing.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yeah, I do that a lot after disasters; I have to to better help myself understand what's happened. It's easier for me to wrap my mind around it when such a catastrophe is more concrete than just an abstract story in an unknown place on the news. On the same nite: Google Earth--especially where the Street View cameras have been--is amazing.


Google Earth is one of the best tools they have come out with.
Can anyone help me find a good visible satellite water vapor image of the CONUS during the recent outbreak? I have heard others describe this thing as an inland hurricane. Are there any images that would actually fit this description or is that simply not the right comparison at all. My family went through Andrew in Perrine. The damage I am seeing from pictures pretty much shows the same type of damage, only over a much wider scale.
A tornado Super Outbreak is in no way related to a Hurricane.

Period.

Hurricanes,,at Landfall and well inland can and often do Spawn Tornadoes as did Andrew during its second Landfall in La.,..where she spawned a F-4 that killed 4 in Laplace,La.
Quoting lentampa:
Can anyone help me find a good visible satellite water vapor image of the CONUS during the recent outbreak? I have heard others describe this thing as an inland hurricane. Are there any images that would actually fit this description or is that simply not the right comparison at all. My family went through Andrew in Perrine. The damage I am seeing from pictures pretty much shows the same type of damage, only over a much wider scale.


Two totally different weather phenomena that produce similar wind damage... this whole idea of "inland hurricanes" is created and perpetuated by uninformed journalists and laymen who compare the two.

If you look at the water vapor images you will see a storm with no similarity to a hurricane other than a large mass of clouds
This is amazing. Mother nature is really throwing some curve balls at the world right now. From Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Flooding, and Tornados. I hope she keeps the Hurricane Card tucked away.

Quoting Patrap:
A tornado Super Outbreak is in no way related to a Hurricane.

Period.

Hurricanes,,at Landfall and well inland can and often do Spawn Tornadoes as did Andrew during its second Landfall in La...she spawned a F-4 that killed 4 in Laplace,La.

Not to diminish in any way the amount of incredible destruction an outbreak of violent long-track tornadoes can cause, but a hurricane can damage a much wider swath. Even the record-setting tornadoes affiliated with the Super Outbreak of 1974 directly affected fewer than 100 square miles combined, whereas hurricanes can create very heavy damage over hundreds or thousands of square miles. Camille pretty much wiped clean 68 square miles of Mississippi's Harrison County alone; Andrew left a severe damage footprint covering 300 square miles in just Dade County; and Katrina ravaged roughly 93,000 square miles in total (though, of course, not all of that was severe).

Having said that: I think I prefer the days of warning I get before hurricanes to the minutes--or seconds--a tornado usually affords. On top of that, a hurricane pulls your home apart shingle by shingle, board by board; on the other hand, a tornado simply smashes it to smithereens all at once. The end result may look similar, but that surely doesn't tell the whole story.
Back again.

This may assist those who are trying to follow the assessors' path today...

Quoting Floodman:


Two totally different weather phenomena that produce similar wind damage... this whole idea of "inland hurricanes" is created and perpetuated by uninformed journalists and laymen who compare the two.

If you look at the water vapor images you will see a storm with no similarity to a hurricane other than a large mass of clouds


The wind destruction from a hurricane rarely looks like the swath of damage we have seen from this tornado outbreak. Andrew is the only example I have seen. There is scattered wind damage, but not whole neighborhoods and/or towns leveled. The pictures we see from hurricane damage are usually from surge. At least that has been my (unfortunate) hands on experience. I saw first hand what the Red River tornado outbreak of 1979 did. Andrew is the only thing I have seen to best that (wind damage).


the flashing logo stamp gets irritating but good footage especially toward the end when it is getting into downtown
Quoting PcolaDan:


The wind destruction from a hurricane rarely looks like the swath of damage we have seen from this tornado outbreak. Andrew is the only example I have seen. There is scattered wind damage, but not whole neighborhoods and/or towns leveled. The pictures we see from hurricane damage are usually from surge. At least that has been my (unfortunate) hands on experience. I saw first hand what the Red River tornado outbreak of 1979 did. Andrew is the only thing I have seen to best that (wind damage).


After Charley, Frances Jeanne and Ivan I saw isolated areas with damage rivaling that of a tornado swath; roofs and structure damaged, tree fall damage, etc, but you're right: tornados cause damage in tightly restricted areas where the damage from a hurricane while much greater in area is generally lighter overall with pockets of worse damage (aside from hurricane spawned tornados)
Quoting Floodman:


Two totally different weather phenomena that produce similar wind damage... this whole idea of "inland hurricanes" is created and perpetuated by uninformed journalists and laymen who compare the two.

If you look at the water vapor images you will see a storm with no similarity to a hurricane other than a large mass of clouds


Floodman,

Can you help me find an image from the other day for comparison?

Thnx!
Quoting PcolaDan:


The wind destruction from a hurricane rarely looks like the swath of damage we have seen from this tornado outbreak. Andrew is the only example I have seen. There is scattered wind damage, but not whole neighborhoods and/or towns leveled. The pictures we see from hurricane damage are usually from surge. At least that has been my (unfortunate) hands on experience. I saw first hand what the Red River tornado outbreak of 1979 did. Andrew is the only thing I have seen to best that (wind damage).
Was commenting last night that I find it amazing that a tornado can produce in seconds what hours of relentless sea / storm surge cause. I think Andrew is our best comparison because it is the one cat five landfall we have lots of documentation for but which also doesn't have most of the really bad wind damage "covered over" by the surge damage. I'm thinking about the Keys Hurricane as an alternate; the wind did basically do everything in there, but the storm surge would have overlaid most / all of it.
New Blog.
I wonder if StormSquad would let me reproduce this video.

Quoting emcf30:


the flashing logo stamp gets irritating but good footage especially toward the end when it is getting into downtown
Quoting Floodman:


After Charley, Frances Jeanne and Ivan I saw isolated areas with damage rivaling that of a tornado swath; roofs and structure damaged, tree fall damage, etc, but you're right: tornados cause damage in tightly restricted areas where the damage from a hurricane while much greater in area is generally lighter overall with pockets of worse damage (aside from hurricane spawned tornados)
Hey Flood..As soon as I learn to post the images I have stored in the computer, I will put up the pictures of our houses after the hurricanes...Where the heck ya been.? :)....This GFS model does not hold good news for those of us with flooding problems...Link
Quoting emcf30:


the flashing logo stamp gets irritating but good footage especially toward the end when it is getting into downtown
I can deal with the logo. But turn your freakin wipers off!
Quoting lentampa:


Floodman,

Can you help me find an image from the other day for comparison?

Thnx!


This is a satellite image reputedly from that day (looks very similar to the one from the previous outbreak):

801. flsky
Quoting pipelines:
My friend's father was just found.....he didn't make it. Great man, 20+ years a pastor helped a lot of people, from Pleasant Grove. This is just horrible.....I can't believe this.

I'm so sorry.
I remember on the 27th, seeing this live footage from ABC 33/40. It gave me chills seeing a huge tornado heading into a major city and it still does.