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Massive haboob duststorm sweeps through Phoenix

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:15 PM GMT on July 06, 2011

A massive desert sandstorm roared through Phoenix, Arizona last night, dropping visibilities to near zero and coating surfaces with a gritty later of dust and sand. The phenomenon, known as a haboob, occurs when the outflow from a thunderstorm kicks up desert dust. Last night's haboob was due to a large complex of thunderstorms known as a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that developed to the east of Phoenix. As the outflow from the MCS hit the ground, large quantities of sand and dust became suspended in the air by 50 - 60 mph winds. The amount of dust was much greater than is usual for one of these storms, due to the large size of the thunderstorm complex, and the extreme drought conditions the region has been experiencing. As the haboob hit Phoenix, winds gusted to 53 mph at Sky Harbor International Airport, and the airport was forced to shut down for 45 minutes due to visibilities that fell as low as 1/8 mile. The airport received only 0.04" of rain from the storm, but large regions of Southern Arizona got 1 - 2 inches of rain overnight due to the monsoon thunderstorms. The Southwest U.S.'s annual monsoon season has kicked into gear this week, aided by moisture from Tropical Storm Arlene. The welcome rains the monsoon's thunderstorms will bring to the region should greatly aid the efforts of firefighters attempting to control the fires of the Southwest's worst fire season in recorded history. The latest 5-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is calling for widespread areas of 1/2 - 1 inch of rain over Arizona and western New Mexico this week.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from last night's monsoon season thunderstorms that swept through Southern Arizona.


Video 1. Helicopter video of the impressive haboob sandstorm from July 5, 2011, as it swept through downtown Phoenix. Here is a time lapse video of what it was like to drive into the sandstorm.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss. None of the reliable computer model is predicting tropical cyclone formation over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters
Monsoon Dust Storm
Monsoon Dust Storm
Crazy storm came through tonight!!
Los Alamos Wildfire 1
Los Alamos Wildfire 1
The Los Alamos fire as seen from mountaintop in Santa Fe, NM
The Phoenix Haboob
The Phoenix Haboob
Wanted to post a color version, even if I much prefer the B&W :)
Chandler AZ 1st dust storm 2011
Chandler AZ 1st dust storm 2011
Chandler Arizona's 1st dust storm of 2011

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


They are just.... waves....
That's what they are....
up to now..just waves...
Quoting donna1960ruled:
This is getting scary. Time to start buying batteries. By Sunday morning, there will be 2 invests, 1 Tropical Storm, and a Cat 2 Hurricane in the Atlantic. Cancel all plans, vacations, work, play... I am issuing statements to my family and cats every two hours.


Hey is that a Siamese cat?
But for the the low trajectory headed towards SA at the moment, it is a very impressive looking wave nonetheless for this time of the year. I cannot physically explain the exact dynamics at work in terms of potential development but it has that "look"; sort of like a "blossom" effect if you know what I am trying to describe when a viable wave starts to develop free from negative influences such as sheer.
480 weathermanwannabe "Respectfully, you are way too aggressive with some of your observations and predictions in terms of numbers of storms (in July) and potential development/cyclogenesis"

We are WUbers. If we don't get over-excited, who will? Besides...
...the other conversational choices are hot July weather over Texas, AnthropogenicGlobalWarming, economics&politics, and FoxNews

"see discussion below from Tallahassee NWS from earlier today:"

After they quit SHOUTing; makes the NWS look like a buncha raving maniacs.
'd look less wacky if they ceased bathing, donned hairshirts, and carried around signs saying
REPENT!!! THE WEATHER IS NEAR!!!
504. aspectre 12:02 AM EDT on July 07, 2011

Lol........ :) Good Night and See Yall in the AM.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Hey is that a Siamese cat?
maybe ask the cat what to do
508. JLPR2
If it were August this one would have a nice circle around it.

Healthy wave

Quoting Torgen:


I know what it stands for, just trying to understand what it does. ;)


TUTTs are located over the ocean and typically exhibit a positive tilt, meaning the axis of the trough is oriented SW-NE. Although TUTTs can orient themselves in a different manner, this is typically the angle they are positioned in. Also characteristic of a TUTT is the fact that they are very elongated and strung out. Because of their spread-out characteristics,TUTTs spread out across the ocean basin and are sometimes referred to as Mid Oceanic Troughs. TUTTs develop over the ocean in just about all the basins of the world. However, they are usually only present during the summer months. Therefore, we usually see the TUTT over the Atlantic from July-October. Due to the long lasting period of a TUTT and little movement in positioning, they are referred to as semi-permanent features.

Although TUTTs' can extend down to the mid to low levels of the atmosphere, they are strongest in the upper level of the atmosphere. Therefore, to spot these troughs, the best area to look is in the upper atmosphere around the 200mb level.


One way to spot the TUTT is by looking at the upper level winds. Typically you want to look for Northerly (winds from the north or near that direction) on the left side of the trough axis and South Westerly/Westerly winds on the right side of the axis. The latest CIMSS satellite derived upper level wind map shows this quite clearly.



Please excuse my terrible drawing skills on the computer, and do note that the trough extends further to the SW and further to the NE. With that aside, you can see the trough axis in pink and the northerly winds on the left side and the south westerly winds on the right side.

TUTTs can be spotted on the 200mb geopotential height map.



TUTTs can also be spotted on the 200mb vorticity map. Look for the large area of positive vorticity (red, orange and yellows)




Notice that spotting the TUTT in both these cases involves looking at the upper levels of the atmosphere.



Now on to the more specific characteristics...

TUTTs are associated with subsidence and as a result of the subsidence, below the 200mb level TUTTs are cold core, while above this level they are warm core due to the compression of air. Another result of the subsidence is the generally cloud free core of the TUTT. Subsidence promotes the sinking of air causing convection to become unfavorable along the axis of the TUTT. Along the western periphery of the TUTT, the strong upper level easterlies turn south and head into the tropics/subtropics. Since winds are stronger in the extratropical regions than they are in the tropical regions due to stronger temperature gradients, these winds decelerate in speed on the NW/W side of the TUTT. The decelerating winds on the NW/W side of the TUTT causes upper level convergence, or the pilling up of air. This pilling up of air promotes subsidence, which again makes convection unfavorable on the left side of the trough (N/NW side). On the right side, however, you have winds moving to the NE, accelerating as they return to the faster upper level easterlies of the mid to upper latitudes. As a result of the accelerating air, upper level divergence (the spreading out of air) is usually found on the E/SE side of the TUTT. Upper level divergence promotes rising air, which favors convection. As a result of these upper level winds around the TUTT, thunderstorms and cloudiness are usually seen on the E/SE side, while the W/NW side usually remains fairly cloud free.

Do to the upper level divergence mentioned above, TUTTs can assist tropical disturbances so long as the disturbance is on the E/SE side of the TUTT. However, a negative side effect of these strong upper level winds (not really strong when compared to extratropical winds, but for the tropics in the summertime, these winds are strong) is the wind shear it causes. Wind shear usually won't completely kill convection or a tropical wave, however, it will prevent further organization. Therefore, the effect of a TUTT on a tropical disturbance is mixed. Usually as a tropical wave progresses west and approaches a TUTT on the E/SE side, convection will temporarily flair up thanks to upper level divergence. Once it reaches the eastern side, however, the opposite usually occurs as a result of upper level convergence. Also, unless shear is low, organization will not occur. Additionally, TUTTs can act on tropical disturbances by forcing in dry mid latitude continental air into storms which can further inhibit convection.


One final property of TUTTs is that pieces of the trough can break off and form Upper Level Lows (ULLs). If atmospheric conditions and SSTs are all favorable, and there is enough time, occasionally these ULLs can reach down to the lower levels of the atmosphere, begin to acquire convection, become warm core from the release of latent heat in condensation, form a ridge overhead due to the heat release, and then become tropical storms. But keep in mind this is really rare.

Anyway, I hope this helps!
Had some rain today in West Calcasieu parish. Looks like the rotation in the Gulf moved slightly onshore just SE of NOLA, then backing back into the Gulf now. I don't think the little ten percenter is going to get much of a chance as I don't see too much convection, and competing waves coming toward it.
Our wave in the central atlantic is looking pretty good tonight. Keep in mind, however, it is just a wave. Convergence looks good, and upper level conditions are favorable due to plenty of upper level easterlies aloft and what looks to be like an upper level anticyclone developing over the convection. Shear right now isn't too bad, but it is not exactly prime for development.

Still waiting on the rest of the 0z models, but of the ones that are out right now, both the CMC and the GFS, do not currently develop this wave. CMC really tries to at the end of the run, but two closed isobars over a really broad area isn't much and it's right off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Anyway, we shall have to keep an eye on it
Tom

Your explanation in 510 is fantastic. Thank you for the concise, well written comment.
I agree, the TUTT explanation was spot on, albeit a little on the basic side. But I assume that was the intent. 10/10
Quoting SouthALWX:
I agree, the TUTT explanation was spot on, albeit a little on the basic side. But I assume that was the intent. 10/10
....here is an even more basic explanation...

whats the deal
Quoting TomTaylor:
Our wave in the central atlantic is looking pretty good tonight. Keep in mind, however, it is just a wave. Convergence looks good, and upper level conditions are favorable due to plenty of upper level easterlies aloft and what looks to be like an upper level anticyclone developing over the convection. Shear right now isn't too bad, but it is not exactly prime for development.

Still waiting on the rest of the 0z models, but of the ones that are out right now, both the CMC and the GFS, do not currently develop this wave. CMC really tries to at the end of the run, but two closed isobars over a really broad area isn't much and it's right off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Anyway, we shall have to keep an eye on it


Evening Tom. If my internet stays on long enough to post this I just read about what I assume is the wave you mentioned. And I don't know which models develop this.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SURGE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE SE CARIBBEAN AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
58W TO 60W S OF 20N IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE WEAK TROUGH AND
TROPICAL WAVE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AND
BECOME DIFFUSE IN THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY WHILE THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES
THROUGH SAT...REACHING 80W AROUND SUN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE INTENSE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST.
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W S OF 12N WILL MOVE INTO THE
TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AND THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
Quoting shred3590:
Tom

Your explanation in 510 is fantastic. Thank you for the concise, well written comment.
no problem.

I like writing things out like this, it helps me understand it better when I write it out

Quoting SouthALWX:
I agree, the TUTT explanation was spot on, albeit a little on the basic side. But I assume that was the intent. 10/10
lol
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Evening Tom. If my internet stays on long enough to post this I just read about what I assume is the wave you mentioned. And I don't know which models develop this.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SURGE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE SE CARIBBEAN AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
58W TO 60W S OF 20N IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE WEAK TROUGH AND
TROPICAL WAVE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AND
BECOME DIFFUSE IN THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY WHILE THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES
THROUGH SAT...REACHING 80W AROUND SUN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE INTENSE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST.
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W S OF 12N WILL MOVE INTO THE
TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AND THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
yes that is the wave.

I'll go take one last look at the 0z run. Last I checked I think the CMC did develop one closed isobar, but I guess I forgot to mention it.

I'll be back with an update in a few minutes

EDIT: Ok so I just took a look at the 0z models. Still don't see any of them developing the wave. CMC and NOGAPS both have one closed isobar at the waves peak which would be a TD...but the reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, don't develop the wave at all, just keep it as a well defined area of vorticity.

Keep in mind they're just models. What we can take away from the models is that this wave won't come completely ashore in S America, but part of the axis will. This land interaction isn't an issue yet, but will be in 2 days or so. Still, land interaction shouldn't be too much of an issue, the bigger issue seems to be the upper anticyclone not being able to develop well over the system and the TUTT remaining in the central Caribbean. The TUTT will provide divergence at first, but it will also provide shear. I don't think it will be high shear, but it won't exactly be perfect shear levels either.

Anyway, keep in mind anything can happen. Should the TUTT back off and the upper anticyclone build over the wave better than all the models are currently saying, then we will have a much better chance of development.
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W S OF 12N WILL MOVE INTO THE
TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AND THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
519. Agree.
May not need the TUTT to lift too much, especially if we can get a bit of a change in orientation. In any case, it certainly looks nice. And I see no reason for waves like that to not continue on through ASO with little eastern atlantic shear. And there will be some that come through when the TUTT is in proper configuration to help vent the waves/storms without providing overwhelming shear. I dunno if I'd call the wave a harbinger of things to come, but it's location,intensity, and trajectory are cause for concern.
Quoting SouthALWX:
519. Agree.
May not need the TUTT to lift too much, especially if we can get a bit of a change in orientation. In any case, it certainly looks nice. And I see no reason for waves like that to not continue on through ASO with little eastern atlantic shear. And there will be some that come through when the TUTT is in proper configuration to help vent the waves/storms without providing overwhelming shear. I dunno if I'd call the wave a harbinger of things to come, but it's location,intensity, and trajectory are cause for concern.
yeah looking at SST anomalies over the Atlantic, the MDR region is very warm and the gulf of guinea continues to stay cool.

Looking like an active cv season ahead of us
its still early July and alot can change, but Im much more concerned that the Nina ridge is breaking down. Florida's recent rains and the absence of widespread 95-100s across the SE in comparison to May and June seem to indicate that as well. On the plus side, I'm beginning to think the odds of a Texas drought buster are increasing. The recurring ULLs in the Gulf throw a curveball in any landfall predictions, but the AEWs should have the correct trajectory to atleast bring disorganized rains to the Lonestar state through ASO. We shall see.
Thank you Tom. So maybe I wasn't seeing things when I wasn't seeing it on the models. Lol. Sure looks good. We will see what tomorrow brings. I've had internet troubles all night. So I'm giving up til tomorrow. Night everyone. :)
good morning dayshift and lurkers- a lively look to the SE tropics today, bringing rains to a large part of Florida soon. Unfortunately this will put a big damper on the launch, gonna be a lotta wet folks with high hopes. Can't imagine they'll get'er offa the ground this weekend at all.
529. Ylee
I'm sure there's lotsa folks in your neck of the woods who would trade an on-time shuttle launch for some rain.

Me, I'm in no hurry to see Atlantis go up.
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES ITS WILD GENERATION OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.


Models gone wild?
development of convection has to be favorable this yr in fact more than any yr ive seen so far
Quoting Ylee:
I'm sure there's lotsa folks in your neck of the woods who would trade an on-time shuttle launch for some rain.

Me, I'm in no hurry to see Atlantis go up.
not here in e cent florida plenty of rain locally we do have a terrible mosquito problem though
good looking tropical wave here maybe a 10% at am lets see what happern
the northern one looks interesting struggling with with shear though
this tropical wave looking better this morning
Good morning to all.

I will have to have the umbrella with me starting today as that first wave draws closer and combines with the TUTT trough to the NW.

pottery and DDR, it looks like a good deal of rain for you there with that well defined wave approaching from your ESE.
invest 93E WILL GO UP TO 80% AT 8AM
542. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 071137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
invest 93E WILL GO UP TO 80% AT 8AM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 7 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND THERE IS
A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Jason, look at this !
544. afj3
800 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

WE have two 10 PERCENT maybe three by 2pm
those three areas of convection one s of prico one east of the leewards and one ese of the windwards might all combine in the eastern carib into one ball of convection freaky times
Good Morning. That upper level low in the gulf has actually not moved much towards the west so it is really eating away at the disturbance off the coast of Florida.....Will bring some much needed rain to parts of the Peninsula and development not likely; the models will probably back off as well on that one.
Good morning

The only system that looks like a candidate for some slow development at the moment is the feature to the SE of the Windwards. The other two areas are battling unfavorable upper level conditions. The ULL in the GOM is inhibiting anything near the Bahamas from developing and the TUTT to the NE of the Leewards is shearing out the second feature over the NE islands.

Overall the odds for imminent development are low but activity has picked up.

Longer term the GFS brings a very strong low off the coast of Africa in about 160 hours. This could be our first true CV system of the year.

ECMWF at 168 hours off the coast of Africa



GFS @162 hours

Looking at the satellite and the 850mb, the wave East of South America had better gain latitude quickly or else it is heading right for land.
The area of disturbed weather ese of the windward islands is in the same position of tropical sttorm Anna which hit Trinidad in 1974
553. srada
Look at that high retrograding..leaving the conus vulnerable

INVEST IN GULF
100 miles west of Key West...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107071157
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011070706, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011070612, , BEST, 0, 237N, 828W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011070618, , BEST, 0, 240N, 831W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011070700, , BEST, 0, 242N, 833W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011070706, , BEST, 0, 244N, 834W, 20, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
T tropial disturbance east of the southern winwards, is being inhibited by 20knot wind shear from the sw. as long as the system bypass 50W, the environment becomes more conducive, and slow development is possible
Quoting wxgeek723:


Hey is that a Siamese cat?


He's a Himalayan Cat named Boovis. He is a very sweet fellow, and he likes his isobars tight.
558. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
The area of disturbed weather ese of the windward islands is in the same position of tropical sttorm Anna which hit Trinidad in 1974


It's actually Alma. Nice looking wave huh?
Quoting stoormfury:
T tropial disturbance east of the southern winwards, is being inhibited by 20knot wind shear from the sw. as long as the system bypass 50W, the environment becomes more conducive, and slow development is possible
it will be on top of northern s.amer. by then this was forecasted by the twc guy last night
It's Gonnn RAIN!
561. srada
Quoting islander101010:
it will be on top of northern s.amer. by then this was forecasted by the twc guy last night


The steering flow shifts to the NW on the coast of SA which may serve to lift that wave just clear and into the extreme SE Caribbean.The steering high is moving off to the NE at this time which should open the door for the wave to pull up to the WNW. Timing is the key here.

563. SLU
Anything's possible

Back later
566. DDR
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all.

I will have to have the umbrella with me starting today as that first wave draws closer and combines with the TUTT trough to the NW.

pottery and DDR, it looks like a good deal of rain for you there with that well defined wave approaching from your ESE.

Hey,good morning
yes it does look like a trouble maker,we haven't had widespread flooding as yet,but this could be the one.
2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. i do not see it on the map yet!!

hello Invest 96L
AL 96 201107071145 DVTS 2440N 8340W DVRK TAFB 1010 ///// GOES13 CSC T
The LLC with the tropical wave is centred 9N 52W moving wnw-nw at 20 mph

Good morning WUarriors.

Looks to be a wet one today.
Good Morning all.
Yeah, that wave east of NE South America will be overhead here by Friday evening.
I remember Alma.
Gusty winds but more damaging were the rains.
Any Torrential rain here will be a problem right now as everything is completely saturated.
Fortunately, the Authorities have been clearing rivers and waterways all over the Island for the past few months.
They were completely silted up and ignored for many years....

In the city of Port-of-Spain it was recently found that new high-rise construction along the waterfront entirely blocked the outflow of several of the main drains under the City.
The new foundations were built through the underground drains.

So it goes......
wow!! invest 96L i never saw this coming!!
more recent chris which smashed into hispanola about 20 yrs ago not a drop of wind here in ecen fl. not a great sign of a developing system just sw of here
Maybe the Panhandle'll get its drought relief if those initial tracks play out.
Many in south peninsular Florida and the Florida Keys don't need to see it coming. Take an umbrella if you venture outside to see it.

Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
wow!! invest 96L i never saw this coming!!
Quoting FLdewey:
It's Gonnn RAIN!
Dewey is a Baller! I mean just look at that avatar! LOL Gonna get a good soaking today, and looking forward to it!
just looked at buoys around the Dry Tortugas and lower keys. surface pressures are rising. don't get the NHC's 'invest' status other than to cover butts due to close proximity to FL.
There goes my fishing trip in the Gulf on Saturday morning................
MAYBE INVEST 97L DOWN THE ROAD FROM NOW.
557 donna1960ruled "He's a Himalayan Cat named Boovis. He is a very sweet fellow, and he likes his isobars tight."

Looks like the poor kitty got his head caught in a tropical eyewall.

Since we're gonna be busy with Invests and Storms soon...
"Arctic sea ice extent for June 2011 was the second lowest in the satellite data record since 1979...

(large version) "Average ice extent fell below that for June 2007, which had the lowest minimum ice extent at the end of summer. However, ice extent this year was greater than in June 2010..."

(large version ...though it appears to have been a tighter 15%coverage race by JAXA's reckoning than by NSIDC's, with 2011 trading first with 2010 until falling behind during the final week of June.

(slightly larger version to use Control Plus magnification upon) And by DMI's 30%coverage parameter, 2011 ran tied with or below 2010 until the last week or so, then tied on the last day.
Sheesh...anyone up for a boil?

invest_RENUMBER_ep932011_ep032011.ren 07-Jul-2011 12:52 1.6K



EP 03 2011070712 BEST 0 144N 1015W 30 1005 TD
invest 96L GOING TO BE IN VERY WARM WATER!! lets hope it hit land soon!! i do not wanted this invest 96L go back in the water on the east coast because the water temp are very warm there!


NWS radar Loop from Key West, FL, Key West, FL Radar, Long Range Base Reflectivity
Quoting scooster67:
An immature group of anti-science types here;

or maybe

A mature group of tropical weather types here!


(And, yes, I'm aware my comments are hidden again; that's why nobody saw when I posted about 96L twenty minutes before posting this ATCF update. An immature group of anti-science types here has succeeded--again--in minusing my comments en masse to the point that my karma is--again--at a minimal level. [This same group would doubtless minus Dr. Masters, too, if they could.] What they fail to realize are these two things: a) each time they minus a comment, their own "WU karma" gets driven down; and b) even if they silence me and every other person telling them about AGW, the planet is still going to continue to warm. Silly people... ;-)

Nea,

You almost made a weather post, but you just cant help yourself. This is why your "WU karma" sucks.

I continue to not block you in the hope that you will use your vast knowledge and skill to enhance the discussion of weather on this blog. Maybe one day!

If you're going to quote me, please use the entire quote so others who can't see me get the full story. Otherwise, your comment looks like any of the other ones trying to manipulate and distort. Thanks!
something spin here maybe invest 96L will move more ne and go up the east coast!!
Good morning! 96L eh?
look like a tropical storm to me not a invest 93E ANYMORE
96 could be some baby twisters heavy convection for sure
Quoting Neapolitan:

If you're going to quote me, please use the entire quote so others who can't see me get the full story. Otherwise, your comment looks like any of the other ones trying to manipulate and distort. Thanks!
What did I leave out?
Vort increasing for both systems.

Interesting NRL declared 96L, maybe they are seeing something the nhc is not? Or perhaps it is just the systems proximity to land which caused the invest status.
Sen. Inhofe has a wu account?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Adjustment:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107071222
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011070706, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011070612, , BEST, 0, 237N, 828W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011070618, , BEST, 0, 240N, 831W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011070700, , BEST, 0, 242N, 833W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011070706, , BEST, 0, 245N, 835W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 96, 2011070712, , BEST, 0, 249N, 837W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

(And, yes, I'm aware my comments are hidden again; that's why nobody saw when I posted about 96L twenty minutes before posting this ATCF update. An immature group of anti-science types here has succeeded--again--in minusing my comments en masse to the point that my karma is--again--at a minimal level. [This same group would doubtless minus Dr. Masters, too, if they could.] What they fail to realize are these two things: a) each time they minus a comment, their own "WU karma" gets driven down; and b) even if they silence me and every other person telling them about AGW, the planet is still going to continue to warm. Silly people... ;-)
Is that better for you "WU karma"
Good Morning... 96L could potentially cause the STS-135 Mission to be scrubbed tomorrow AM and may be moved to Sunday.
NRL declares a invest First usually and that's about 90% of the time.

Quoting MrstormX:
Interesting NRL declared 96L, maybe they are seeing something the nhc is not? Or perhaps it is just the systems proximity to land which caused the invest status.


The invest is sitting in 10-20kts of shear


And Decreasing


Convergence is really good and obviously vented well.
907

WHXX01 KWBC 071224

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1224 UTC THU JUL 7 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962011) 20110707 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110707 1200 110708 0000 110708 1200 110709 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.9N 83.7W 26.0N 84.6W 27.1N 85.7W 28.2N 86.0W

BAMD 24.9N 83.7W 26.5N 84.3W 28.2N 84.8W 30.1N 85.0W

BAMM 24.9N 83.7W 26.2N 84.6W 27.3N 85.5W 28.7N 85.8W

LBAR 24.9N 83.7W 25.9N 84.2W 27.3N 84.8W 28.9N 84.8W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110709 1200 110710 1200 110711 1200 110712 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 29.3N 86.4W 31.1N 86.9W 32.4N 87.4W 32.4N 87.7W

BAMD 31.8N 84.5W 33.6N 84.1W 34.0N 84.3W 33.2N 85.0W

BAMM 29.8N 85.9W 31.9N 86.6W 33.2N 87.5W 33.3N 88.0W

LBAR 30.5N 84.1W 33.9N 81.5W 37.0N 79.9W 37.8N 74.8W

SHIP 44KTS 49KTS 51KTS 49KTS

DSHP 44KTS 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.9N LONCUR = 83.7W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

LATM12 = 24.2N LONM12 = 83.3W DIRM12 = 324DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 23.7N LONM24 = 82.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
From August 15th, 2009. Just south of the GOMEX, predicted to enter the GOMEX just off Florida.
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting Patrap:
NRL declares a invest First usually and that's about 90% of the time.



I'm just surprised with the ULL that they would make this an invest at all.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
From August 15th, 2009. Just south of the GOMEX, predicted to enter the GOMEX just off Florida.
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Claudette?
Divergence looks excellent over the CATL disturbance.


Convergence looks decent.
Quoting MrstormX:


Claudette?


Correct.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I'm waiting for Baha to get in and find out that Nassau is under their first yellow circle for 2011...
Yah, I knew I shoulda done that blog entry... lol We actually got some decent rain last night from that. Rain seems pretty much done for us, though it's still overcast out there.

And the Doc's topic explains why I heard "haboob" on the TV so much last night as I came in the door. Which reminds me.... anybody seen haboobsrus lately?

I gotta run - though if I get internet access later today I'll check in. To my FL friends, ENJOY!
Recon for tommorow to check 96L.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT THU 07 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 08/1700Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 08/1530Z
D. 28.2N 85.0W
E. 08/1630Z TO 08/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 09/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 09/0430Z
D. 29.4N 84.8W
E. 09/0530Z TO 09/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.





Pre-Claudette Wind Shear



vs

96L Shear

Quoting DestinJeff:
I'm not sure if I should get back in the Wunderwater or not.

Everything ok around here?

Did you see that under there?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
This will really almost end the drought on peninsula Florida.
616. PTXer
Quoting KeysieLife:
Sheesh...anyone up for a boil?



Yes! Heading down to St.Pete Beach in a couple weeks for vacation. Warm water great, hurricanes none please.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
618. HCW
96L model runs from the NHC :) Have a great day

Quoting TampaFLUSA:
This will really almost end the drought on peninsula Florida.
yep and another tropical wave after that. then cape verde season. better have lots of bug spray
Quoting DestinJeff:
I'm not sure if I should get back in the Wunderwater or not.

Everything ok around here?


The water is wunderful.
Quoting scooster67:
Is that better for you "WU karma"

Well, it would have been better to have done it in the first place--or even if you'd gone back and edited that first entry. But it's a little too late now, much as I appreciate

Regardless of where one stands on the issue of AGWT, anyone who believes in both free speech and honest scientific debate should probably avoid mashing the minus/report buttons because they disagree with what someone says. If you're not one of those who engage in such childish attempts at silencing dissent, I applaud you. If, on the other hand, you are, this especially applies to you.

Thanks for listening.
Quoting DestinJeff:


Wachoo talkin' bout, Dewey?


Well... you were supposed to reply "under wear?"

Hilarity would have ensued.
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.
Yeah, that wave east of NE South America will be overhead here by Friday evening.
I remember Alma.
Gusty winds but more damaging were the rains.
Any Torrential rain here will be a problem right now as everything is completely saturated.
Fortunately, the Authorities have been clearing rivers and waterways all over the Island for the past few months.
They were completely silted up and ignored for many years....

In the city of Port-of-Spain it was recently found that new high-rise construction along the waterfront entirely blocked the outflow of several of the main drains under the City.
The new foundations were built through the underground drains.

So it goes......


I'd say drop a torpedo in there and open em back up. LoL
I see we've got a little action this morning. Nothing like a morning surprise to start the day off right...lol
Complete Update

Still waiting for GE to show the models for 96L

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Invest96L ( _ATCF_ )

Last 24hours
23.7n82.8w, 20knots, 1011millibars, Disturbance
24.0n83.1w, 20knots, 1011millibars, Disturbance
24.2n83.3w, 20knots, 1011millibars, Disturbance
24.5n83.5w, 20knots, 1011millibars, Disturbance
24.9n83.7w, 25knots, 1011millibars, Disturbance
i think it will steer more to the east and hit west fl
If the NHC thinks 96L is not expected to develop, why are they sending in a recon?
Quoting FLdewey:


Well... you were supposed to reply "under wear?"

Hilarity would have ensued.
Times are hard, all the good stright men are at the front.
633. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If the NHC thinks 96L is not expected to develop, why are they sending in a recon?



so they wont get sued
OLD BLOG
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If the NHC thinks 96L is not expected to develop, why are they sending in a recon?


It's prudent to check such things when they are close to our coastline, which is the NHC's priority area of responsibility. They also will not send the recon if it is clear that it is not needed.
CMC develops 96L into a 1007mb Depression/Storm, after hitting the panhandle it tracks Northeast into the ATL where it strengthens. But then again it is the CMC :)
I have a family reunion starting Sunday 7/10 in Destin,Fl. Can any of you give me a time frame on when this disturbance will effect the Fl panhandle? Thanks so much.
Quoting DestinJeff:
The minus and re()port buttons were the worst thing to happen to the blog. Too much school-yard bullying associated with those.

+100
They are definitely overused. Some people seem to not be able to take a joke, or get offended to easily. They just need to relax and take a deep breath and realize as great as this blog is, we are still using the internet. If you are offended easily, you probably shouldn't be on the internet in the first place.

On the other hand it helps us get rid of trolls since there seems to be a lack of live administration.
Quoting DestinJeff:


Or a morning Shocker.


Hey, how ya doin'?

Doing well, DJ...just kickin' back this summer like all overpaid Texas teachers who still have jobs (sigh)...Hawaii with the family in a few weeks should be fun..you?
Quoting DestinJeff:
The minus and re()port buttons were the worst thing to happen to the blog. Too much school-yard bullying associated with those.


I just wish there was a way to minimize the posts with very large images and animations that devour my bandwidth and data limits. Without having to minus or ignore them, that is.
Quoting bluheelrtx:


I just wish there was a way to minimize the posts with very large images and animations that devour my bandwidth and data limits. Without having to minus or ignore them, that is.
yes devour simpson
Quoting StormHype:
just looked at buoys around the Dry Tortugas and lower keys. surface pressures are rising. don't get the NHC's 'invest' status other than to cover butts due to close proximity to FL.
...wait until tonight,i bet we get a sheered TD2 with landfall just north of tpa friday night!!
NEW BLOG!
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


not sure about 10 but, 5 days from now the pattern flattens out with no weakness.

I've been here in FL for almost 10 years now and have come to realize that the first wave of the year that reaches the peninsula tends to kick off the ATL development wise. No science to that just observation.



+1 very good observation, that is prob true in retrospect.