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Massive flooding in Australia cuts off city of 75,000

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:52 PM GMT on January 03, 2011

The arrival of the new year has brought continued misery to northeast Australia, where unprecedented flooding continues in the wake of weeks of torrential rains. The floods have killed at least ten people and covered an area the size of France and Germany combined, cutting off the coastal city of Rockhampton. Today, the military was forced to fly in food, water, and other supplies into Rockhampton, a city of 75,000, due to the lack of unflooded roads into the city. The local airport, all access roads, and all rail lines into the city are closed. The flooding has affected at least 21 other towns, and 200,000 people in northeast Australia. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard stated last week, "Some communities are seeing flood waters higher than they've seen in decades, and for some communities flood waters have never reached these levels before [in] the time that we have been recording floods." According to the National Climatic Data Center, springtime in Australia (September - November) had precipitation 125% of normal--the wettest spring in the country since records began 111 years ago. Some sections of coastal Queensland received over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain from September through November. Rainfall in Queensland and all of eastern Australia in December was the greatest on record, and the year 2010 was the rainiest year on record for Queensland. The heavy rains are due, in part, to the moderate to strong La Niña event that has been in place since July. The relatively warm waters that accumulate off the northeast coast of Australia during a La Niña typically cause heavy rains over Queensland.


Figure 1. Comparison of river conditions in Queensland from today to December 30, 2010. While some rivers have fallen below major flood stage, the Fitzroy River at Rockhampton is rising, and may peak at levels not seen since 1918 on Wednesday. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Rainfall in Queensland, Australia for December, 2010. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

The rains over Queensland continued yesterday and today, with many of the flooded regions receiving 1/2 - 1 inch (about 12 - 25 mm) of rain. Total rainfall amounts in the flood region over the past month are generally in the 16 - 24 inch range (400 - 600 mm). Predicted rainfall amounts for the next two days in the flooded region are less than 1/2 inch (12 mm), which should allow for river levels to peak by Tuesday or Wednesday, then slowly fall. However, heavy rains are predicted to affect the area again by Thursday, and it may be several weeks before the summer rains ease enough to allow all of Queensland's rivers to retreat below flood stage. Damage to infrastructure in Australia has been estimated at over $1 billion by the government, and economists have estimated the Australian economy will suffer an additional $6 billion in damage over the coming months due to reduced exports, according to insurance company AIR Worldwide. Queensland is Australia's top coal-producing state, and coal mining and delivery operations are being severely hampered by the flooding. Damage to agriculture is currently estimated at $400 million, and is expected to rise.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting louisianaboy444:
The aircrafts that i'm seeing don't appear to be medicial heliocopters There shorter and bulker and all black and don't appar to have the little landing spokes on either side of them. I've also seen them fly in pairs of 2 or even 3


Where was Abraham Zapruder when you needed him?
Quoting Patrap:
I think some Black Ops or UFO Aliens came down and mutilated my twinkie...

All the white filling is missing and not one entrance wound.

The other is fine though.


Hey, pat, you don't believe in clandestine military ops, do you? LOL
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
hey levi,can u explain the graphs u posted from the ecmwf?thanks


What about them? It shows the ECMWF ensemble forecasted mean precipitation anomalies for the period of January-February-March.
449...please stop screwing around with our conspiracy theories...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Where was Abraham Zapruder when you needed him?


Probably standing on a concrete wall or something, would you say???
A unmarked Helo in Se La..is about as common as sand on a Fla Beach,.

PHI,The Military,Dept of Wildlife all have matte grey ones.

thanks levi,that is what i was wondering.What are ur thoughts on the coming up hurricane season?
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, pat, you don't believe in clandestine military ops, do you? LOL


Well I did run into some crazy Nordes skiing down a Hill once in Tromso,,..

But they were coming down fer Bier.

A Beer Ski run operation u could say

I typed 499...it posted 449...sorry....musta been the black helicopters...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't worry about the trolls iam here an iam waiting
KOTG read post 461,and 462.I think this will help you alot...
Quoting Patrap:
A unmarked Helo in Se La..is about as common as sand on a Fla Beach,.

PHI,The Military,Dept of Wildlife all have matte grey ones.



Well i live in SwLA and i have lived here all my life and have never seen these type of aircraft..but okay i will stop since people seen to get uneasy when things like this are discussed
Quoting Levi32:


And I think some people are too quick to believe that supposed "data" going back before this century, especially for thousands of years, has any significant merit. I don't know how long they have been observing coral and ocean currents in the Atlantic with the knowledge and understanding they possess now, but it can't be that long, and certainly not 1800 years.


Nah, I think the term "global warming" is what throws you off. As with most meteorologists.
Quoting presslord:
449...please stop screwing around with our conspiracy theories...
someone should call Jesse Ventura and his team of experts
dude....I listen to Coast to Coast every night....
Quoting washingtonian115:
KOTG read post 461,and 462.I think this will help you alot...
i have but thats up to the trolls
A Helo is not a Conspiracy,...we see lotsa unmarked stuff here in NOLA all the time,,specially when NAS Belle Chasse sends up F-16 and F-18s daily.


A Black Blackhawk with the low glow numbers and letters are common FEMA and State assets as well.

Quoting presslord:
I typed 499...it posted 449...sorry....musta been the black helicopters...


Well if you can give me another explanation about why dead birds are falling from the skies in two states id like to hear it..and please dont say fireworks that utterly ridiculous lol
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
thanks levi,that is what i was wondering.What are ur thoughts on the coming up hurricane season?
I'm not levi,but this season looks like it will probally be active if we have la nina or neural conditions in place.Sst,and anomolies are still running high near the coast of western africa into the southern part of the carribeasn.So with that said I think it will be an active one with the current weather conditions that I see evolving.
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Well if you can give me another explanation about why dead birds are falling from the skies in two states id like to hear it..and please dont say fireworks that utterly ridiculous lol


coincidence....sometimes weird stuff just happens....
Quoting Patrap:


Well I did run into some crazy Nordes skiing down a Hill once in Tromso,,..

But they were coming down fer Bier.

A Beer Ski run operation u could say



If it was 1982 or 83 I probably skiied right by you. LOL
Dupont Killed 5000 Indians in a Night once..

Bird falls are more common,but very undereported,


fireworks kills birds


About 771,000 results (0.34 seconds)
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Nah, I think the term "global warming" is what throws you off. As with most meteorologists.


You must be a good meteorologist to be a good climatologist, and you must be a good climatologist to be a good meteorologist. There is no separation. One simply deals with extreme long-range forecasts of the tendencies in the weather patterns around the globe on decadal or century-long time scales, while the other focuses more on the short-term nuance variations that affect our daily lives.
we have a bunch of terrorists at the Navy Brig here....I know EXACTLY which plane flying in and out of here is the CIA plane...I'm a stupid real estate guy...the fact that I know the CIA plane tells you all you need to know about the government's ability to pull of some secret conspiracy...
524. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:


Certainly.

ECMWF: (Jan-Feb-Mar)



Japanese: (Dec-Feb)



CFS: (monthly through this June)


mucha humedad en el MDR
i will not be surprise if we see 14 names storms
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Well if you can give me another explanation about why dead birds are falling from the skies in two states id like to hear it..and please dont say fireworks that utterly ridiculous lol
it was the kid down the street launching mentos coke bombs
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
thanks levi,that is what i was wondering.What are ur thoughts on the coming up hurricane season?


At this time, it looks to be a 2nd-year La Nina season likely to have less numbers than 2010, but possibly more threat to the Caribbean and U.S. than we saw in 2010. I did a preliminary look at it a month ago in my last blog entry. However, it is still very early and there are some key things to watch over the next several months, such as whether the NAO ever shifts before the winter is over.
Quoting Grothar:


If it was 1982 or 83 I probably skiied right by you. LOL


Teamwork 84'
Quoting JRRP:

mucha humedad en el MDR


Si.
Quoting Levi32:


You must be a good Meteorologist to be a good Climatologist, and you must be a good Climatologist to be a good Meteorologist. There is no separation. One simply deals with extreme long-range forecasts of the tendencies in the weather patterns around the globe, while the other focuses more on the short-term nuance variations that affect our daily lives.
Speaking of long term when do the forecast of the june-july-august percipitation come out for the euro and other models?.That could probally give us a key for our up coming hurricane season...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Speaking of long term when do the forecast of the june-july-august percipitation come out for the euro and other models?.That could probally give us a key for our up coming hurricane season...


The CFS already goes out that far, but the ECMWF is only out to AMJ at this time. The ECMWF updates its multi-model system around mid-month and the operational updates later, usually between the 20th and 25th of the month, I believe.
Quoting JRRP:

mucha humedad en el MDR
i will not be surprise if we see 14 names storms
I don't see us going into El nina that fast.We probally aren't going to see a flip over like we did this year.I think we may enter a weak El nino by december of 2011,but we'll see.
532. JRRP
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't see us going into El nina that fast.We probally aren't going to see a flip over like we did this year.I think we may enter a weak El nino by december of 2011,but we'll see.

could be
yea
Quoting Levi32:


The CFS already goes out that far, but the ECMWF is only out to AMJ at this time. The ECMWF updates its multi-model system around mid-month and the operational updates later, usually between the 20th and 25th of the month, I believe.
Since I trust the euro more over the cfs I'll be waiting for the update.
Quoting JRRP:

could be
yea
Since La nina will likley be strong,I see it gradually decreasing in strength this year which is why I belive that if we will see any developing El nino in the future it will be in december of this year.
Quoting Patrap:
Dupont Killed 5000 Indians in a Night once..

Bird falls are more common,but very undereported,


fireworks kills birds


About 771,000 results (0.34 seconds)


Union Carbide wasn't it Pat?
Sneaky suspicion that this year will feature very powerful Cape Verde hurricanes, SST's off Africa are well above average already.
2011


2010


La Nina isn't likely to die off anytime soon either.


La Nina going strong still -- though some warm anomalies are noted.


This setup reminds me of 2001 so far. Warmer SST's off Africa -- La Nina crossing over into the new year. Key difference though, PDO is different.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Since La nina will likley be strong,I see it gradually decreasing in strength this year which is why I belive that if we will see any developing El nino in the future it will be in december of this year.


I doubt that an El Nino would develop at the very end of the year since the usual period is during the spring, as it did in 2009 (exceptions tend not to become full-fledged ENSO episodes, as defined by NOAA, like the "La Ninas" at the end of 2005 and 2008). Also, ENSO forecasts that currently go beyond the April-June transition period are highly unreliable (the so-called "spring barrier" when model skill is the lowest), so take the forecasts of an El Nino (or La Nina, as opposed to just neutral - some models like the CFS are notorious for overextending ENSO episodes) with a grain of salt (more than usual, model forecast skill will improve as we approach and pass that time; of course, it will then be hurricane season).
Quoting Neapolitan:

Bryson is great, and one of my favorites, too. I really enjoy his books on language--I've only read The Mother Tongue about a hundred times--but his few science books are amazing--and the one from which I quoted is his best, IMHO.

And you're sadly correct: we humans are merely a few billion parasites on this planet, and we're definitely wearing out our welcome. Blinded by religion or ideology or simple complacency, we've convinced ourselves that we've always been here and always will be...when nothing could be further from the truth. And as to where else we might go that's in our personal just-right "Goldilocks Zone", the answer is nowhere anytime soon. No, if we succeed in making this one uninhabitable for us, that's the end.

But a few beers before that happens sound great. ;-)


If I see the end coming, I'll rush down with a case or two!

Whoops, I was thinking of Carl Sagan, author of Pale Blue Dot but Bryson is great as well. I think most people would do well to read "The Demon Haunted World" before they discount scientific evidence of any kind, let alone that concerning the only planet we have to sustain us. And I keep remembering Paul Erlich's analogy about extinction. Imagine you are on a plane waiting to take off, and you see someone removing rivets from the wing through the window. You tell the pilot "Hey, stop that idiot! That's not safe!" The pilot answers, "Don't worry, we can take a few rivets out of wing and still fly safely. The rest will do the job." You have to wonder- just how many rivets can be removed before the wing falls off mid-flight? Would you stay on the plane??

What if the plane is planet Earth? How many species can we extinguish, or ecosystems can we destroy, before we go too far and the "wing falls off?" Where do we stop?

Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
I'd love to know that too. How can you tell from posts on here? It would pretty easy if they posted on your blog.


I asked this last night, but no reply:

How do you determine the original identity of a troll who posts on your blog?
I think El Nino is on its way. SUPER El Nino.

Just to buck the models and because of some things occurring in the w pacific and Asia.

And of course to send Cyberteddy into a seething blind rage. J/K im just basically guessing but I wouldn't be surprised after what has been occurring climatically.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I asked this last night, but no reply:

How do you determine the original identity of a troll who posts on your blog?
well if you have a tracking site embeded within your blog page it tracks every hit you get i have two i use revolver maps for a general ping and i also use who's amung us pro hidden for more detailed info only problem is if you have high traffic the records could take some time to go over and match up with whos amung us you get isp numbers isp names city and street info browers id i have over 16000 hits so its very time consuming now to match up info but it can and has been done
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I asked this last night, but no reply:

How do you determine the original identity of a troll who posts on your blog?
here is one if interested its whos amung us you need a credit card an subscribe to monthly membership

Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well if you have a tracking site embeded within your blog page it tracks every hit you get i have two i use revolver maps for a general ping and i also use who's amung us pro hidden for more detailed info only problem is if you have high traffic the records could take some time to go over and match up with whos amung us you get isp numbers isp names city and street info browers id i have over 16000 hits so its very time consuming now to match up info but it can and has been done


Period.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Period.
i don't use those or any at all because it makes it harder for trackin also its a habit from my hacker days when DOS was widly used
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Sneaky suspicion that this year will feature very powerful Cape Verde hurricanes, SST's off Africa are well above average already.
2011


2010


La Nina isn't likely to die off anytime soon either.


La Nina going strong still -- though some warm anomalies are noted.


This setup reminds me of 2001 so far. Warmer SST's off Africa -- La Nina crossing over into the new year. Key difference though, PDO is different.
I think we'll have an active cape verde year.And if the NAO stays negative the tropical atlantic will be ready and warm for next years hurricane season.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I doubt that an El Nino would develop at the very end of the year since the usual period is during the spring, as it did in 2009 (exceptions tend not to become full-fledged ENSO episodes, as defined by NOAA, like the "La Ninas" at the end of 2005 and 2008). Also, ENSO forecasts that currently go beyond the April-June transition period are highly unreliable (the so-called "spring barrier" when model skill is the lowest), so take the forecasts of an El Nino (or La Nina, as opposed to just neutral - some models like the CFS are notorious for overextending ENSO episodes) with a grain of salt (more than usual, model forecast skill will improve as we approach and pass that time; of course, it will then be hurricane season).
When it comes to long range models the furthest I trust it going out is about 2-3 months.Especially when it comes to El nino or La nina episodes.
Quoting Levi32:


You must be a good meteorologist to be a good climatologist, and you must be a good climatologist to be a good meteorologist. There is no separation. One simply deals with extreme long-range forecasts of the tendencies in the weather patterns around the globe on decadal or century-long time scales, while the other focuses more on the short-term nuance variations that affect our daily lives.

But there is separation, Levi.

From an article detailing the difference: "A study published in the January 2009 newsletter of the American Geophysical Union, the professional association of earth scientists, found that while nearly 90 percent of some 3,000 climatologists who responded agreed that there was evidence of human-driven climate change, 80 percent of all earth scientists and 64 percent of meteorologists agreed with the statement. Only economic geologists who specialized in industrial uses of materials like oil and coal were more skeptical."

That same article goes on to state, "Resentment may also play a role in the divide. Climatologists are almost always affiliated with universities or research institutions where a doctoral degree is required. Most meteorologists, however, can get jobs as weather forecasters with a college degree."

More
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well if you have a tracking site embeded within your blog page it tracks every hit you get i have two i use revolver maps for a general ping and i also use who's amung us pro hidden for more detailed info only problem is if you have high traffic the records could take some time to go over and match up with whos amung us you get isp numbers isp names city and street info browers id i have over 16000 hits so its very time consuming now to match up info but it can and has been done


Thanks, Keep.
One thing that I have noticed is that over the past few days sea level pressure has been lower than average in the eastern Pacific, something that hasn't occurred for a while (months?), probably just a temporary fluctuation but interesting to watch (in 2008, the trade winds remained strong during the spring transition period, inhibiting any tendency towards El Nino - SSTs did get rather warm for a while in the eastern Pacific):



Meanwhile, we have all of this heat building up in the western Pacific; of course, this alone doesn't mean that an El Nino will occur:

Evening all.

KOTG, I have a hard time believing u have been around long enough to have been hacking via DOS.... lol

I'm finding the ENSO forecasts interesting. Anybody have the Oz BOM one handy? Im not on my regular laptop...

One thing I'm keeping in mind is we don't normally see an abrupt transition to el nino from a la nina that's been this deep. I wouldn't be surprised to see Levi's track prediction bear out.... isn't it this second-year la nina that often gets the S Car / Central America tracks more so than at other times?

Also, while a transition to el nino seems a bit far-fetched to me, especially given the current PDO, what do u think our chances of going to neutral by JAS are?
Quoting Neapolitan:

But there is separation, Levi.

From an article detailing the difference: "A study published in the January 2009 newsletter of the American Geophysical Union, the professional association of earth scientists, found that while nearly 90 percent of some 3,000 climatologists who responded agreed that there was evidence of human-driven climate change, 80 percent of all earth scientists and 64 percent of meteorologists agreed with the statement. Only economic geologists who specialized in industrial uses of materials like oil and coal were more skeptical."

That same article goes on to state, "Resentment may also play a role in the divide. Climatologists are almost always affiliated with universities or research institutions where a doctoral degree is required. Most meteorologists, however, can get jobs as weather forecasters with a college degree."

More


Hmm, I wonder who they are are talking about.


William M. "Bill" Gray (born 1929) is Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU),
and head of the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU's Department of Atmospheric Sciences. He is a pioneer in the science
of forecasting hurricanes[1] and one of the world's leading experts on tropical storms.[2]

In 1952, Gray received a B.S. degree in geography from George Washington University,
and in 1959 a M.S. in meteorology from the University of Chicago, where he went on to earn a Ph.D. in geophysical sciences in 1964.

He served as a weather forecaster for the United States Air Force, and as a research assistant in the University of Chicago Department of Meteorology.
He joined Colorado State University in 1961. He has been advisor of over 70 Ph.D. and M.S. students.


This interesting too.

Link

A little nasa and nature data for fun.

Link

Link

Ebbing sunspot activity makes Europe freeze

350 years of data link low solar activity to cold winters.
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/336/601/10,000s_of_Birds_found_dead_in_Manitoba.html

Manitoba too? Methane geysers 30 meters high? "Somekind of super atmoshperic heating/cooling event" This is getting wierd.
fishy
Link
Dr Gray is not a climate scientist.
more
Link
Kentucky dead birdsLink
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.

KOTG, I have a hard time believing u have been around long enough to have been hacking via DOS.... lol

I'm finding the ENSO forecasts interesting. Anybody have the Oz BOM one handy? Im not on my regular laptop...

One thing I'm keeping in mind is we don't normally see an abrupt transition to el nino from a la nina that's been this deep. I wouldn't be surprised to see Levi's track prediction bear out.... isn't it this second-year la nina that often gets the S Car / Central America tracks more so than at other times?

Also, while a transition to el nino seems a bit far-fetched to me, especially given the current PDO, what do u think our chances of going to neutral by JAS are?


The BOM just updated; note the part about the SOI, as I noted previously:

Strong La Niña persists

Issued on Wednesday 5 January 2011 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

A major La Niña event continues to affect the Pacific Basin. Long-range forecast models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that the La Niña is likely to persist into the southern hemisphere autumn.

All climate indicators of ENSO remain beyond La Niña thresholds. The tropical Pacific Ocean remains much cooler than average for this time of year, with temperatures below the surface up to 4 °C below normal in central and eastern parts (comparable to the La Niña event of 1988). Trade winds are stronger than average, while cloud patterns continue to show a typical La Niña signature with suppressed cloudiness in tropical areas near the dateline. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value for December of +27 is the highest December SOI value on record, as well as being the highest value for any month since November 1973.


As for their model forecast, it shows a steady warming through August, reaching neutral at that time:

Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.

KOTG, I have a hard time believing u have been around long enough to have been hacking via DOS.... lol

I'm finding the ENSO forecasts interesting. Anybody have the Oz BOM one handy? Im not on my regular laptop...

One thing I'm keeping in mind is we don't normally see an abrupt transition to el nino from a la nina that's been this deep. I wouldn't be surprised to see Levi's track prediction bear out.... isn't it this second-year la nina that often gets the S Car / Central America tracks more so than at other times?

Also, while a transition to el nino seems a bit far-fetched to me, especially given the current PDO, what do u think our chances of going to neutral by JAS are?
my first computer was in 1979 a texas instument product from radio shack when it was all code commands goto loops hex binary programs
i also use to save all the work on a tape cassette recorder and the big box to put the telephone receiver into to connect with other computers and servers
i remember when one time there was no world wide web we have come a long way in a very short time
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/336/601/10,000s_of_Birds_found_dead_in_Manitoba.html

Manitoba too? Methane geysers 30 meters high? "Somekind of super atmoshperic heating/cooling event" This is getting wierd.


MESSAGE FROM MOTHER EARTH

... --- ...
It is also worth noting that as of November, the PDO was more negative in late 2008 (judging from the SST change map I posted, the NE Pacific has warmed so the December PDO index may be less negative). Also, it actually lagged El Nino in 2009, not becoming positive until August (if you count +0.09 as positive, September was +0.52; even the highest monthly reading was only +0.83 in January and this was likely due to El Nino overlaying a negative PDO pattern, not a real change to positive, since they have similar patterns).
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
my first computer was in 1979 a texas instument product from radio shack when it was all code commands goto loops hex binary programs
i also use to save all the work on a tape cassette recorder and the big box to put the telephone receiver into to connect with other computers and servers
i remember when one time there was no world wide web we have come a long way in a very short time


I used to run stat. analysis programs on a 300 baud DecWriter. Fun times - compared to punch cards! Hmmm - wonder what Gro used way back when. ;-)
Im tropically depressed and have cabin fever.

I should go to the French Quarter after the Sugar Bowl.

"pong" was cool in B/W

( .)
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I used to run stat. analysis programs on a 300 baud DecWriter. Fun times - compared to punch cards! Hmmm - wonder what Gro used way back when. ;-)


Quoting Neapolitan:

But there is separation, Levi.

From an article detailing the difference: "A study published in the January 2009 newsletter of the American Geophysical Union, the professional association of earth scientists, found that while nearly 90 percent of some 3,000 climatologists who responded agreed that there was evidence of human-driven climate change, 80 percent of all earth scientists and 64 percent of meteorologists agreed with the statement. Only economic geologists who specialized in industrial uses of materials like oil and coal were more skeptical."

That same article goes on to state, "Resentment may also play a role in the divide. Climatologists are almost always affiliated with universities or research institutions where a doctoral degree is required. Most meteorologists, however, can get jobs as weather forecasters with a college degree."

More


That's nothing more than hiding behind pieces of paper and finding rabbit trails to avoid debating the topic, which top scientists rarely do. And meteorologists have no interest in oil or coal (generally speaking) and keeping stocks up or whatever it may be. That's a ridiculous excuse.

And nothing you said clarified any difference between climatologist and meteorologist other than the time period in which they forecast/study the weather.

Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/336/601/10,000s_of_Birds_found_dead_in_Manitoba.html

Manitoba too? Methane geysers 30 meters high? "Somekind of super atmoshperic heating/cooling event" This is getting wierd.

I like this one from the same web site: electro-magnetic mind control.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I used to run stat. analysis programs on a 300 baud DecWriter. Fun times - compared to punch cards! Hmmm - wonder what Gro used way back when. ;-)


This (invented around 3000 BC):



Before that?



Well, of course - that is where we got the decimal numbering system (fingers are even also called digits)!
Quoting Neapolitan:

"...And you're sadly correct: we humans are merely a few billion parasites on this planet, and we're definitely wearing out our welcome..."

?????

Quoting bappit:

I like this one from the same web site: electro-magnetic mind control.


Other effects include unexplainable burning, itching, tickling or pressure; "humming" or "buzzing" causing sleeplessness and anxiety; loss of body control, producing sudden twitching or jerking of an arm or leg; and feelings of dread, rage, lust, sorrow, or other emotions that come and go quickly.

Trolls get the same symptoms I hear,..and a bad rash
Quoting PcolaDan:


Quoting MichaelSTL:


This (invented around 3000 BC):



Before that?



Well, of course - that is where we got the decimal numbering system (fingers are even also called digits)!


LOL!!
Quoting PcolaDan:




I could only count up to 11 in those days.
Quoting bappit:

I like this one from the same web site: electro-magnetic mind control.


This one explains it all though.

http://beforeitsnews.com/story/336/276/UFO_Alien_Predictions_Coming_True.html
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
my first computer was in 1979 a texas instument product from radio shack when it was all code commands goto loops hex binary programs
i also use to save all the work on a tape cassette recorder and the big box to put the telephone receiver into to connect with other computers and servers
i remember when one time there was no world wide web we have come a long way in a very short time

wow.... never would have guessed u went that far back... though prolly should've w/ ur scrolling stats.... lol I didn't get into computers until 84, when I started using an IBM at work... one of the early desktops.... that seems like only yesterday... and now look at us... we have FB....
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Dr Gray is not a climate scientist.


And climate science is born from physics, not meteorology, is it not?

An oldie, but a Good read, if you can :)

http://rmp.aps.org/abstract/RMP/v56/i3/p365_1

Patrap, I am just glad you don't have tropical cabin fever from the french quarter. LOL
Birds falling from the sky as Chupacabras gaily frolic in the methane geysers.
Quoting Grothar:


I could only count up to 11 in those days.


So is that decimal 11 (1011 binary, B hex, binary 11 (3 dec and hex) or hex 11 (10001 binary and 17 decimal)?
Quoting BahaHurican:

wow.... never would have guessed u went that far back... though prolly should've w/ ur scrolling stats.... lol I didn't get into computers until 84, when I started using an IBM at work... one of the early desktops.... that seems like only yesterday... and now look at us... we have FB....


PC XT/AT, DOS, Edlin, Basic. 32 Mb HD, 64k RAM. Real powerhouse!
More than 200,000 Australians were affected by floods in Queensland at the end of December 2010, according to The New York Times. High waters washed out roads, isolated entire towns, and forced thousands to evacuate. The coastal city of Rockhampton braced for major flooding, which was expected to arrive on New Years Day. The flooding began a week earlier with the arrival of Tropical Storm Tasha.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured these false-color images on December 31, 2010 (top), and December 28, 2009 (bottom). Both images use a combination of infrared and visible light to increase the contrast between water and land. Water ranges from electric blue to navy. Clouds range from off-white to bright blue-green. Vegetation is bright green. Bare ground appears in shades of red and pinkish brown.

Compared to the image acquired a year earlier, the rivers between Rockhampton and Emerald are all swollen. Water has not only filled frequently dry river valleys, but also pushed over river banks in some places.

earthobservatory.nasa.gov

Use Ol' Roy dry Mix to trap the Chupacabras ....
More on the PDO - I noticed that the PDO never even really went positive in 1965, but a rather strongish El Nino developed, strong enough to rank among the top 7 in the MEI record (even a bit stronger than last year; they had similar peaks but 1965 stayed near its peak for longer):



That is obviously an exception, even during the positive PDO phase; on the other hand, it appears that rapid La Nina-El Nino transitions are more likely during a negative PDO, especially if you look at SSTs. Also, the current La Nina will likely be lower again when this is updated, especially given the record high December SOI; the atmosphere has been the strongest component, SSTs aren't as low as they got last time (I still wonder how NOAA calculates the 3 month ONI - how the heck did the recent El Nino get a +1.8 average for 3 months when the highest single month was +1.82 and second highest +1.67, the 2007-2008 La Nina was actually lower than the 3 month averages, -1.4 with three consecutive months at -1.5 or lower).
Fresh dangers for people in Queensland trapped by rising waters. . Follow us on twitter at http://twitter.com/itn_news .

Quoting JFLORIDA:
Dr Gray is not a climate scientist.


Ok, so here we go:

Exactly which disciplines would you say fall into the "climate scientist" grouping?

For example, would a PhD in physics qualify?
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I used to run stat. analysis programs on a 300 baud DecWriter. Fun times - compared to punch cards! Hmmm - wonder what Gro used way back when. ;-)

I used to have to change tape reels for the computer at the lab where I worked the night shift as an undergraduate. (yeah, that old!)

For what it's worth, some of these fish and bird kills may be due to wildlife being screwed up by overly warm conditions suddenly turning to overly cold conditions.
10,000s of Birds found dead in Manitoba
January-03-11 12:33


Update: More bird deaths reported in U.S. Just days after thousands of blackbirds dropped out of the sky over a small town in Arkansas, another 500 birds fell to their death over a Louisiana highway.

Scarletwhore.com is getting reports of Bird deaths in Brazil, Argentina, Columbia.

Canada: There has been some kind of very extreme weather event in the arctic apparently in Northen Manitoba and in the general area of Churchhill Manitoba. There is a flurry of Military activity at the old CFB base near Churchill.

Somekind of super atmoshperic heating/cooling event led to a drastic increase in temperatures then a sudden decrease in temperatures. Tens of thousands of birds and probably other wildlife died in what is being described as a mega "ice storm", like the one that happened in Quebec that knocked out power lines for weeks and cost billions in damage.

Inuit in the far north has reported methane out-gassing that sometimes spray 30 meters into the air, extreme changes are happenniing in the arctic and this may be a chain reaction of events that precipitate the collapse on the Greenland ice sheet and the failure of the north atlantic current.

www.cbc.ca/canada/north/story/2011/01/03/arctic-sea-ice-climate.html
poleshift.ning.com/profiles/blogs/more-pole-shift-evidence-rain

scarletwhore.com/?s=greenland


Winnipeg Manitoba, Canada.

Officials from Health Canada are scrambling to deal with the sudden death of 10′s of thousands of wild birds somewhere in the province. Officials dodged local reporters who were removed from outside the Level-4 Canada Science center.

Local reports have circulated that an extremely virulent strain of bird flu has infected both wild and farm birds. At the same time an extremely aggressive winter flu has hit Canada sometime in December and mortality rates are expected to rise alarmingly in vulnerable populations.

www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/alert-alerte/h1n1/index-eng.php


this fish and bird thing is getting weird its happening here in new zealand too

from todays news...Hundreds of dead snapper have washed up on Coromandel beaches, leaving holidaymakers perplexed.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/4512779/Hundreds-of-snapper-wash-up-on-beaches
Quoting Chicklit:

I used to have to change tape reels for the computer at the lab where I worked the night shift as an undergraduate. (yeah, that old!)


Oh yeah, tapes!

;mount tape 1234
;read
;dismount
eof
The tapes looked like old movie reels.
The screens always showed up green digits.
And there was a flat underscore that would blink when you turned the puter on.
DOS!
Quoting hcubed:


Ok, so here we go:

Exactly which disciplines would you say fall into the "climate scientist" grouping?

For example, would a PhD in physics qualify?


No, but Inhofe and Heartland apparently think so. In fact, the latter even thinks that just having a bachelor's degree is enough - and even if you aren't alive (plus they added some real climate scientists despite their objections).


A wallaby is trapped by rising flood waters outside Dalby in Queensland. Picture: Anthony Skerman
Giant cave discovered in Vietnam



Half-mile block of 40-story buildings could fit
A half-mile block of 40-story buildings could fit inside this lit stretch of Hang Son Doong, which may be the world's biggest subterranean passage.


Quoting hcubed:


Ok, so here we go:

Exactly which disciplines would you say fall into the "climate scientist" grouping?

For example, would a PhD in physics qualify?


We are not going anywhere - he doesn't publish on the subject and makes outrageous unreferenced claims.

As he has more or less stated he really doesn't care about climate science.
Sad images Patrap...am finally reading Life of Pi for the first time (at the point where Pi is in a lifeboat with the wilde beasts).
We try to protect ourselves and our loved ones from natural calamities. When they're natural disasters, it's geography and then luck or lack of resources.
Sen. Inhofe.

A real "Family" man I hear.

He's a few short in the Smart Dept.

FAUX NEWS and Inhofe Igloo

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
10,000s of Birds found dead in Manitoba


I think that story is false or at least exaggerated, and definitely is full of conspiracist nonsense - look at the links to the nonsense about "pole shifts" and such (which only occur in the minds of 2012 conspiracists). Why? Well, Google News returns exactly zero results for the title (without quotes, even if you only search for "dead birds Manitoba"). Plus some commenters on that story who live in the area say that they haven't heard about it.

PS: here is one of the regular Google results:

10000s birds dead in Manitoba, Canada as well?
10 posts - 2 authors - Last post: yesterday
Discussion about 10000s birds dead in Manitoba, Canada as well? at the GodlikeProductions Conspiracy Forum. Our topics include Conspiracy ...
www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1307894/pg1
Quoting hcubed:


Ok, so here we go:

Exactly which disciplines would you say fall into the "climate scientist" grouping?

For example, would a PhD in physics qualify?
Carl Sagan wrote "being brilliant is no garantee against being wrong."
593, Hummm, climategate comes to mind. The truth does not matter and or hide the decline. Who said that ? The correction is in process, like it or not! out >>>>>>>

Quoting MichaelSTL:


I think that story is false or at least exaggerated, and definitely is full of conspiracist nonsense - look at the links to the nonsense about "pole shifts" and such (which only occur in the minds of 2012 conspiracists). Why? Well, Google News returns exactly zero results for the title (without quotes, even if you only search for "dead birds Manitoba"). Plus some commenters on that story who live in the area say that they haven't heard about it.

PS: here is one of the regular Google results:

10000s birds dead in Manitoba, Canada as well?
10 posts - 2 authors - Last post: yesterday
Discussion about 10000s birds dead in Manitoba, Canada as well? at the GodlikeProductions Conspiracy Forum. Our topics include Conspiracy ...
www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1307894/pg1
quite poss it is just bogus well i hope it is cause if its not i would say something big has happen or is about to happen soon
Millions of wild life killed by environmentalists a plausible explanation Dummkopf.


NOAA, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service National Climatic Data Center, U.S. Department of Commerce



DOC > NOAA > NESDIS > NCDC
Search Field:

* Climate Monitoring
* Global Climate Change Indicators
* Help

Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends. The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
Global annual average temperature measured over land and oceans. Red bars indicate temperatures above and blue bars indicate temperatures below the 1901-2000 average temperature. The black line shows atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in parts per million.

Annual surface temperatures for the contiguous U.S. compared to the 20th Century (1901-2000) average. Calculated from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN version 2). More information: U.S. Surface Temperature Data, USHCN v2.

Annual averages of global sea level. Red: sea-level since 1870; Blue: tide gauge data; Black: based on satellite observations. The inset shows global mean sea level rise since 1993 - a period over which sea level rise has accelerated. More information: Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise (USGCRP) and Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Global Upper Ocean Heat Content is Rising

Time series of seasonal (red dots) and annual average (black line) of global upper ocean heat content for the 0-700m layer since 1955. More information: BAMS State of the Climate in 2009.





this made me laugh

Posted by Anonymous on January-04-11 3:13 They must have been shooting off those nasty fireworks up
in Manitoba and it startled the birds to death like the ones
in Arkansas huh? I guess we had better pay better attention
next year and take an umbrella out with us when we do fireworks,
so we don't get hit by falling birds.. Never had that problem
before, but maybe birds are just now getting startled by
fireworks huh? New thing all of the sudden, after the Arkansas
officials offered that up as an explanation? I can't quit
laughing.. Now you Canadians quit blowing off fireworks so that
birds won't be startled! Shame on you guys! And you people
in Arkansas, you just quit it right now. And apparently you
people in Arkansas were also doing fireworks a little too close
to the river too, cause all of those fish died from fright too
from fireworks!
How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming?

A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. This evidence has accumulated over several decades, and from hundreds of studies. The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate. The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years. These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations. These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences. For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover. These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations.
Quoting Patrap:
Annual averages of global sea level. Red: sea-level since 1870; Blue: tide gauge data; Black: based on satellite observations. The inset shows global mean sea level rise since 1993 - a period over which sea level rise has accelerated. More information: Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise (USGCRP) and Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

So what's 4450' in mm?...(I need to know when to go green so my house doesn't flood)
Climate Model Indications and the Observed Climate


Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.

Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.

800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations

Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. More information: Climate Change Impacts on the U.S.

Lennon Song....

John wasnt the greatest. Paul wasn't the greatest. THEY were the greatest.
Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased

The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.

Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.

Where can someone find more information about climate change and climate monitoring?

* US Global Change Research Program
* NOAA Climate portal
* Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society State of the Climate report for 2009
Quoting Patrap:
Global Upper Ocean Heat Content is Rising

Time series of seasonal (red dots) and annual average (black line) of global upper ocean heat content for the 0-700m layer since 1955. More information: BAMS State of the Climate in 2009.


Plus, the deep ocean has been found to be warming as well:

Scientists Find 20 Years of Deep Water Warming Leading to Sea Level Rise

If this deep ocean heating were going into the atmosphere instead – a physical impossibility – it would be warming at a rate of about 3°C (over 5°F) per decade.


Too bad they don't show any actual numbers, like a graph, but that suggests that surface and atmospheric warming is at the most only a few percent of the total heat accumulation. Here is a different view of ocean heat content (again, this doesn't include the deeper ocean, which represents 15-20 times the surface heat accumulation), plus surface/atmosphere for perspective:

Dats bout the state of the matter as per NOAA.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM FST January 5 2011
================================

A tropical depression is expected to lie within the vicinity of Vanuatu during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Moderate
Warm is the New Norm Michael..

Some will always listen to the background noise instead of the data.

You bring the data better than any.






Over the course of 20 years, the sea ice has shown a diminishing trend correlated with ensuing declines of Adelie penguins.
This correlation reflects the Adelie's extreme reliance on pack ice for survival. Compared to other species of penguins in the same area, the Adelies are experiencing the greatest struggle. The Chinstrap and Gentoo penguins have greater foraging capability as well as more flex in their diet which explains their successful adaptation to warming (Forcada, 2006).
Warming Power of CO2 and H2O: Correlations with Temperature Changes

They assault the source, but cannot assult the science. Just watch! I should have shut down. Exit stage left and gone >>>

Regurgitation of what you are told as fact, is not knowledge, until you earn the right of truly understanding it /
Glaciers and mountain snows are rapidly melting—for example, Montana's Glacier National Park now has only 27 glaciers, versus 150 in 1910. In the Northern Hemisphere, thaws also come a week earlier in spring and freezes begin a week later.
Link
622. JRRP
Quoting Patrap:
Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased

The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.

Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.


625. flsky
Dead fish in Florida.
Link
Quoting Patrap:
Global annual average temperature measured over land and oceans. Red bars indicate temperatures above and blue bars indicate temperatures below the 1901-2000 average temperature. The black line shows atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in parts per million.



It is interesting that the below average years in the twentieth century tend to correspond to those years when massive wars were taking place and/or above ground nuclear weapons testing and before major environmental regulations.
I have only come across a limited number of studies done on the global cooling characteristics of soot from burning cities, nuclear winter, and unregulated industry, but I find the evidence to be pretty convincing that those cooler years were caused through pollution, and continued "global dimming" is slowing down the warming process.
Quoting JRRP:



Indeed:

In recent times, the SPEs that occurred on August 4, 1972 and March 1991, have been used by the satellite industry as the worst case SPE events. Since 1561, there have been 19 events more intense than these, with an average arrival interval of 23 years. The overall pace of their arrival is not uniform in time. These two events are the only major ones recorded since 1965. By comparison, during the same 40-year periods between 1850-1890 and between 1890-1930 there were 10 events more intense than the one on August 1972. The current 40-year period has been the least productive in generating large SPEs since as far back as 1670 during the Maunder Minimum! If you wanted to build satellites that endure the rigors of the space environment, Cycle 23 and some of the severe storms during the last 50 years, were probably the wrong examples to use as a 'tall pole' for how bad things can get.


Solar activity has not just been steady for the past 40 years, it has actually been decreasing! Yet we still hear people talk about the Sun as being the cause of global warming (or an imminent ice age) and such nonsense despite the fact that global warming has mainly occurred during that very same period! Not only that, TSI during even the Maunder Minimum was no lower than the current solar minimum (yes, we are still in a minimum because we are still having spotless days, the last less than a week ago, although activity has increased) - according to the latest reconstructions, not older, outdated ones:



(I wonder what a 2010 reconstruction would look like; of course, I bet that deniers will claim that solar physicists and climate scientists are conspiring to hide solar variability, just as the "hid" the MWP!)
Quoting flsky:
Dead fish in Florida.
Link
This type of fish kill happens every couple of years here with a major cold snap. Last year numerous manatees were killed due to the cold.
BREAKING NEWS!!!

A SHOCKING DISCOVERY

A radical discovery of common sense was found again today in my backyard and said something like this, "hey, the greenhouse gas effect is real, look at venus vs mars, man." It then went on to say, "the greater the concentration of greenhouse gases, the greater the heating effect, look at venus vs earth, man."

Then it quickly and swiftly concludes saying, "Humans are adding greenhouse gases to the air, therefore, by common sense, we are adding to the temperature of the earth."



ta-da!

Sweet jesus, it's common sense people, get it through your skulls. What amount, we are adding to warming, I DON'T KNOW! But there is an amount. And all scientific evidence points to it.





Michael and Patrap, your posting on global warming (as much as some hate it), has been amazing, pat yo selfs on the back.
Nice vid sunlinepr! That dude rocks.
Quoting JRRP:


Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.
Chicklit~ Did you see the fish kill on the local news tonight?

Updated: 9:23 pm EST January 4, 2011
VOLUSIA COUNTY, Fla. -- Thousands of dead fish are floating in Volusia County Tuesday. They were all in Spruce Creek in Port Orange. The fish kill is unusual, according to people who live along the creek, because it's warm.
It was 14 degrees F today. Warmest temp in 5 days. Lows down to -8 degrees F.
Quoting Skyepony:
Chicklit~ Did you see the fish kill on the local news tonight?

Updated: 9:23 pm EST January 4, 2011
VOLUSIA COUNTY, Fla. -- Thousands of dead fish are floating in Volusia County Tuesday. They were all in Spruce Creek in Port Orange. The fish kill is unusual, according to people who live along the creek, because it's warm.
Link Recent cold weather.
Fisky~ You saw it.. interesting one blames the cold the other doesn't. I saw a few dead fish last Thursday in the Indian River in an area that would be covered last year from the cold. It's been a week since the last freeze which wasn't as bad as the one before.
Quoting Skyepony:
Fisky~ You saw it.. interesting one blames the cold the other doesn't. I saw a few dead fish last Thursday in the Indian River in an area that would be covered last year from the cold. It's been a week since the last freeze which wasn't as bad as the one before.
I've seen a few on in the Hillsborough river here. I hope it was the cold bc that's where the city gets its water.
Quoting Skyepony:
Fisky~ You saw it.. interesting one blames the cold the other doesn't. I saw a few dead fish last Thursday in the Indian River in an area that would be covered last year from the cold. It's been a week since the last freeze which wasn't as bad as the one before.
Odd. I once saw a smaller fish kill in a large drainage ditch that was traced back to a release of Simple Green.
I also want to add, on the solar-climate connection (and this also includes any supposed natural warming cycles caused by ocean cycles), changes in ocean heat content directly contradict the observed surface warming as being caused by stored heat being released, as some propose as an explanation for why temperatures have continued to rise after solar activity peaked (50 years after the fact), since heat content would be decreasing if this were true (as far as I know, this is only true on a significant scale in the tropical Pacific, during ENSO cycles with El Ninos releasing heat and La Ninas accumulating it, with other patterns only producing slight changes, moreso in the SST patterns than actual heat storage). Also, while the ocean heat content graph I posted appears to show a solar cycle influence, the peaks don't add up; the last two solar cycles peaked in 1989 and 2000 but it shows three peaks in that period (to the present) and only one coincides with a solar maximum (1989).
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Odd. I once saw a smaller fish kill in a large drainage ditch that was traced back to a release of Simple Green.
Not to be confused with Soylent Green.
MichaelSTL~ Agree about godlikeproductions.. I should have been killed by the Deepwater induced Methane tsunami that was suppose to take out FL last year according to them.

State officials say they are investigating a "very large" fish kill in the Chesapeake Bay, but suspect cold temperatures killed them, rather than any water-quality problems. An estimated 2 million fish have been reported dead from the Bay Bridge south to Tangier Sound, according to the Maryland Department of the Environment, which investigates fish kills. The dead fish are primarily adult spot, with some juvenile croakers. Agency spokeswoman Dawn Stoltzfus said bay water quality appears acceptable, and biologists believe "cold-water stress" the likely cause of the fish kill. Spot are susceptible to colder water, she said, and normally leave the upper bay by now. Water temperatures plummeted in late December to near-record lows for that time of year, about 36 degrees. The average air temperature last month was 32.4 degrees, 4.3 degrees below normal, and reached 16 degrees at its lowest, according to the National Weather Service. Large winter kills of spot have been documented at least twice before, the MDE spokeswoman said, with about 15 million dying in early 1976 and a smaller number in 1980. Anyone wanting to report seeing dead fish can call 1-800-MDE-GOTO.
I don't think the effects of greenhouse gases are as straight forward as they seem. Depending on compound density, there are going to be "hot spots" at separate layers of the atmosphere. If mixing was completely uniform, then something much different would be happening.

Anyways, low amounts of greenhouse gases transform certain frequencies of incoming radiation into the IR region (any greenhouse gas does this); but because the layer is thin, it does not act as insulation. A moderate-high amount of greenhouse gases would induce a high energy layer in the atmosphere, but would then add some type of insulation so that incoming radiation approaches outgoing radiation (above the surface). The only problem is that heat is still being released on the surface, so the situation is going from top-down heating to bottom-up.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


No, but Inhofe and Heartland apparently think so. In fact, the latter even thinks that just having a bachelor's degree is enough - and even if you aren't alive (plus they added some real climate scientists despite their objections).


How about a BA in Mathematics, or an MS in Astronomy?

Qualifying degrees?
Quoting MichaelSTL:
I also want to add, on the solar-climate connection (and this also includes any supposed natural warming cycles caused by ocean cycles), changes in ocean heat content directly contradict the observed surface warming as being caused by stored heat being released, as some propose as an explanation for why temperatures have continued to rise after solar activity peaked (50 years after the fact), since heat content would be decreasing if this were true (as far as I know, this is only true on a significant scale in the tropical Pacific, during ENSO cycles with El Ninos releasing heat and La Ninas accumulating it, with other patterns only producing slight changes, moreso in the SST patterns than actual heat storage). Also, while the ocean heat content graph I posted appears to show a solar cycle influence, the peaks don't add up; the last two solar cycles peaked in 1989 and 2000 but it shows three peaks in that period (to the present) and only one coincides with a solar maximum (1989).


Though there are still things left unexplained that could have contributed. For example, there has been a significant drop in the average SOI over the last 35 years, which began when the PDO went warm in 1976. The previous 10-year moving average was fairly level all the way back to 1876 when records began. This drop naturally warmed up the equatorial Pacific and could have contributed to what has been a very warm 30-year period with both the PDO and AMO going into their warm phases. I have not personally seen any mention or study of this drop, nor any explanation why the SOI would suddenly crash after being nearly steady on average for 100 years of records.

Hey some of it is true! After all, Christine O'Donnell did turn me into a newt.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Hey, look at other titles in that link:

Additional Articles by Sorcha Faal

(2010)

World Leaders Flock To Afghanistan After Mysterious %u2018Time Well%u2019 Discovered

America Warned Is Just Months Away From Financial Armageddon

WikiLeaks Set To Reveal US-UFO War In Southern Ocean

Massive Earthquake Fears Rise After Mysterious Object Moves Nearer To Earth

Global Rebellion Erupts After %u201CUnprotected Sex Meets Disrobed Governments%u201D

Leaked Cable Reveals Obama Sent To %u201C2012 ALICE Bunker%u201D Due To Norway %u201CSpiral%u201D

Mysterious %u2018Vortex%u2019 Warned Is Creating Global Weather Catastrophe



And who is Sorcha Faal????
You can also buy your survival gear from them and buy the book on "the Christian cult."
Quoting JFLORIDA:


We are not going anywhere - he doesn't publish on the subject and makes outrageous unreferenced claims.

As he has more or less stated he really doesn't care about climate science.


Ok, here's the particulars of an unnamed scientist. Tell me, based on his degrees, if he'd be accepted as a climate scientist:

Obtained a BA in Physics

Got a BA in Mathematics.

Got an MS in Astronomy.

Got a PhD in Physics.

Acceptable credentials?
650. flsky
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
You can also buy your survival gear from them and buy the book on "the Christian cult."

Didn't say that I believed it....
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
You can also buy your survival gear from them and buy the book on "the Christian cult."


Also we will include Free, with your $100 donation with PPal: "How the high frequency Chilean Earthquake sound waves killed thousand of birds and fishes around the US" by Falacia Global

I'm ordering....Gnite all.... :)
394 presslord "...hhhmmmm... Link."
"Hundreds of dead and dying birds littered a quarter-mile stretch of highway...La.1 just down the road from Pointe Coupee Central High School..."

...which just happens to be even nearer to FalseRiverRegionalAirport's landing&takeoff flightpath. The flock probably tangled with wake turbulence, possibly after some collided with the aircraft itself.

Maybe just a case of "knowing which way the bread is buttered":
Ticking off advertisers and potential advertisers -- ie anyone who can afford to own private aircraft or to rent a private jet -- is likely to lose ya bread.
And aircraft bird-strikes ain't gonna getcha nationwide coverage unless the pilot lands in the Hudson, while mystery (especially of the "apocalyptic portent" kind) sells both copy and uses of copyright.
Quoting flsky:

Didn't say that I believed it....
I know, I was poking fun at the site.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Indeed:

In recent times, the SPEs that occurred on August 4, 1972 and March 1991, have been used by the satellite industry as the worst case SPE events. Since 1561, there have been 19 events more intense than these, with an average arrival interval of 23 years. The overall pace of their arrival is not uniform in time. These two events are the only major ones recorded since 1965. By comparison, during the same 40-year periods between 1850-1890 and between 1890-1930 there were 10 events more intense than the one on August 1972. The current 40-year period has been the least productive in generating large SPEs since as far back as 1670 during the Maunder Minimum! If you wanted to build satellites that endure the rigors of the space environment, Cycle 23 and some of the severe storms during the last 50 years, were probably the wrong examples to use as a 'tall pole' for how bad things can get.


Solar activity has not just been steady for the past 40 years, it has actually been decreasing! Yet we still hear people talk about the Sun as being the cause of global warming (or an imminent ice age) and such nonsense despite the fact that global warming has mainly occurred during that very same period! Not only that, TSI during even the Maunder Minimum was no lower than the current solar minimum (yes, we are still in a minimum because we are still having spotless days, the last less than a week ago, although activity has increased) - according to the latest reconstructions, not older, outdated ones:



(I wonder what a 2010 reconstruction would look like; of course, I bet that deniers will claim that solar physicists and climate scientists are conspiring to hide solar variability, just as the "hid" the MWP!)


Comment then on this NASA study:

SORCE's Solar Spectral Surprise

A device known as Solar Irradiance Monitor (SIM) -- has made daily measurements of the sun's brightness since 2003. The SIM is the first to monitor the daily activity of certain parts of the spectrum.

"...In recent years, SIM has collected data that suggest the sun's brightness may vary in entirely unexpected ways. If the SIM's spectral irradiance measurements are validated and proven accurate over time, then certain parts of Earth’s atmosphere may receive surprisingly large doses of solar radiation even during lulls in solar activity..."

In short, although the TSI may not vary, parts of the spectrum may be changing, even in periods of inactivity.

"...SIM suggests that ultraviolet irradiance fell far more than expected between 2004 and 2007 -- by ten times as much as the total irradiance did -- while irradiance in certain visible and infrared wavelengths surprisingly increased, even as solar activity wound down overall..."

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/solarcycle-sorce.html

Studies are still ongoing.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
922 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
922 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2011

...TURNING MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A LARGE ARCTIC AIRMASS...BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEXT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND BE REINFORCED WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD AIR...A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS WEEKEND.
THIS STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND PERHAPS A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THE COLD AIR DEPENDS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE NOT EXPECTED...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...AND ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTH WINDS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK AND WINDS CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO. THESE COLD
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

RESIDENTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BEGIN
PREPARING NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD
WEATHER. PROVIDE WATER AND SHELTER TO OUTSIDE PETS AND LIVESTOCK.
PROTECT EXPOSED PIPES...AS THE EXTENDED COLD COULD RESULT IN FROZEN
PIPES. IT IS ALSO A GOOD IDEA TO MAKE SURE YOUR VEHICLE HAS A STRONG
BATTERY AND ADEQUATE ANTI-FREEZE. IF TRAVELING NEXT WEEK...TAKE
ALONG EXTRA BLANKETS AND COLD WEATHER GEAR IN CASE YOU BECOME
STRANDED.

YOU CAN MONITOR THE NWS WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

$$
Wow, SW Louisiana is finally getting some much needed rain. SE Tx got it's fair share as well. Still way behind rainfall totals, but this will definitely help. Thunder and lightening in January on the Gulf Coast.
Add Kentucky to the states with bird deaths. And along with Point Coupee, here in Calcasieu Parish, in Lake Charles, lots more birds down.
Surely, Shirley, this is Biblical in nature. :)
Quoting Seawall:
Wow, SW Louisiana is finally getting some much needed rain. SE Tx got it's fair share as well. Still way behind rainfall totals, but this will definitely help. Thunder and lightening in January on the Gulf Coast.
Add Kentucky to the states with bird deaths. And along with Point Coupee, here in Calcasieu Parish, in Lake Charles, lots more birds down.
Surely, Shirley, this is Biblical in nature. :)


None of this is supposed to happen until next year.
Our local weather guys on the Gulf Coast were mentioning the chance of an Arctic front reaching here sometime next week, now they have their mouths sealed shut. I think they are afraid to imagine it. This is forecasters in Lake Charles and Beaumont.
Quoting KoritheMan:


None of this is supposed to happen until next year.


I thought you were talking about the rain there for a minute; we haven't had any for a while... LOL
Quoting Seawall:


I thought you were talking about the rain there for a minute; we haven't had any for a while... LOL


*shrug*

No, the birds.
Quoting KoritheMan:


None of this is supposed to happen until next year.


Quoting KoritheMan:


*shrug*

No, the birds.
Speaking of add Florida to the list.
Mornin Kori, gang!!

Looks like you gonna get you some rain over towards NOLA!
Quoting traumaboyy:
Mornin Kori, gang!!

Looks like you gonna get you some rain over towards NOLA!


Good morning!

Yeah, rain seems likely.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Speaking of add Florida to the list.


wtf? Citation, please?
Quoting KoritheMan:


wtf? Citation, please?


if it was just dead birds it wouldnt be a big deal since it has happened before but dead fish too? And in more than one location? That concerns me
Quoting louisianaboy444:


if it was just dead birds it wouldnt be a big deal since it has happened before but dead fish too? Any in more than one location? That concern me


Wait, now we're talking about fish, as well? That wasn't the implication I got from his post.
Quoting louisianaboy444:


if it was just dead birds it wouldnt be a big deal since it has happened before but dead fish too? And in more than one location? That concerns me


There's dead FISH falling from the sky too??
Quoting KoritheMan:


Wait, now we're talking about fish, as well? That wasn't the implication I got from his post.


Link

And dead fish were found in Arkansas and in cheaspeake Bay both blamed on "Cold weather"
Rumors of dead Fish found in Brazil and Canada also but i have nothing to confirm that for sure
Here we go...

Link
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Link

And dead fish were found in Arkansas and in cheaspeake Bay both blamed on "Cold weather"
Add dead fish in Panama, Brazil, and New Zealand too. Link
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Link

And dead fish were found in Arkansas and in cheaspeake Bay both blamed on "Cold weather"


Interesting. I still don't see why we can't blame it on the cold weather, though. Do you happen to know when the dead fish were reported across the other two locations?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Interesting. I still don't see why we can't blame it on the cold weather, though. Do you happen to know when the dead fish were reported across the other two locations?


The past 2 days all of this has been occuring and last time i checked it is not cold in Panama, New Zealand, and Brazil
Add Florida to the list..

Link
414 Skyepony "Ya'll notice both those bird kills are about the same Longitude? Anybody got a moment to check if they are exactly the same?"

Beebe,Arkansas 35.071389n91.891944w
LouisianaHighway1 "down the road from Pointe Coupee Central High School" 30.718333n91.478611w
~4.6degrees* off of vertical according to the GreatCircleMapper
Quoting traumaboyy:


There's dead FISH falling from the sky too??


LOL, not yet... need a cane for that to happen! How are ya, TB?
Florida and Brazil on the same degree of longtitude?
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


LOL, not yet... need a cane for that to happen! How are ya, TB?


Very well right now...was out back with my pocket knife and a washtub looking for fish...lol

How are you this fine morning??
Quoting traumaboyy:


Very well right now...was out back with my pocket knife and a washtub looking for fish...lol

How are you this fine morning??


LOL, starting to tire finally. I'm out, stay unbusy!
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


stay unbusy!


Is that an actual word? :P
In a way i can't wait till tomorow to see if more incidents occur
Quoting louisianaboy444:


The past 2 days all of this has been occuring and last time i checked it is not cold in Panama, New Zealand, and Brazil


Obviously there's a direct cause, we just don't know what yet.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is that an actual word? :P


Depends on what part of the country you are from!!
Torrential icy rain across five provinces in southern China has forced 58,000 people to evacuate from their damaged homes, causing economic losses of $203.8 million, the ministry of civil affairs said on Wednesday. Freezing rain has pummeled the provinces of Jiangxi, Hunan, Chongqing, Sichuan and Guizhou in the past few days, killing one person and causing more than 1,200 houses to collapse, the ministry added. The harsh weather in southern China, where winter is usually relatively mild, has damaged 142,400 hectares of crops in the provinces that produce rice, timber and coal and caused economic losses of 1.35 billion yuan ($203.8 million) as of Tuesday, the ministry added. In southwestern Guizhou province, 22,800 people were forced to evacuate from their homes on Tuesday. The icy weather and sleet have paralysed traffic and strained power networks in some areas ahead of the vast migrations of people for the Lunar New Year holiday next month. Highways in Guizhou have been clogged in the past few days, leaving thousands stranded in their cars as almost all expressways in the province were closed, said the Guizhou Provincial Department of Transport. On Tuesday, traffic slowly returned to normal in Guizhou as all ice-covered highways reopened after being closed for over 30 hours. Guizhou's provincial weather forecaster warned that it could take five more days for the cold and rainy weather to subside. In early 2008, freezing weather across southern China caused power cuts and transport chaos, preventing many residents from spending the Lunar New Year with their families. The disruption rippled across the region, causing a brief spike in food prices.
Quoting traumaboyy:


Depends on what part of the country you are from!!


Lol thats Kori if its not a 4 sylaball word its not proper lol...
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Lol thats Kori if its not a 4 sylaball word its not proper lol...


Too true!!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is that an actual word? :P


Yes - Google it. ;-)
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Yes - Google it. ;-)


Gnite!!
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Lol thats Kori if its not a 4 sylaball word its not proper lol...


And I'm damn proud of it, I'll have you know.
Quoting traumaboyy:


Gnite!!


Good night, TB!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Good night, TB!


Thanks Bro!!

But I am at work and as much as I want to go night night I was saying good night to DontAnnoyMe
658 Seawall "Add Kentucky to the states with bird deaths. And along with Point Coupee, here in Calcasieu Parish, in Lake Charles, lots more birds down.
Surely, Shirley, this is Biblical in nature.
:)

659 KoritheMan "None of this is supposed to happen until next year."

Twarn't all that long ago that Christmas decorations went up the day after Thanksgiving. Nowadays stores put up Christmas decorations on the day before Holloween to remind folks to shop for gifts.
Same thing's happening with apocalyptic portents: To maximize profits, advertise early and often.

And unlike afterChristmas sales, it's kinda hard to get folks motivated to buy your wares postApocalypse. What with all the looting&pillaging going on, I mean.
Still not as annoying as cleaning up after an apocalypse...
...then having folks complain about a few hundred years being missing.
Quoting TomTaylor:
BREAKING NEWS!!!

A SHOCKING DISCOVERY

A radical discovery of common sense was found again today in my backyard and said something like this, "hey, the greenhouse gas effect is real, look at venus vs mars, man." It then went on to say, "the greater the concentration of greenhouse gases, the greater the heating effect, look at venus vs earth, man."

Then it quickly and swiftly concludes saying, "Humans are adding greenhouse gases to the air, therefore, by common sense, we are adding to the temperature of the earth."



ta-da!

Sweet jesus, it's common sense people, get it through your skulls. What amount, we are adding to warming, I DON'T KNOW! But there is an amount. And all scientific evidence points to it.





Michael and Patrap, your posting on global warming (as much as some hate it), has been amazing, pat yo selfs on the back.
But, but, it's a liberal conspiracy!

J/k. Well, I think it's a joke.
And for those who ain't got enough apocalyptic scenarios to fret about
Vesuvius, which destroyed the Roman city of Pompeii...is nothing more than a pimple on the back of the sleeping dragon of Campi Flegrei, an active four-mile-wide sunken volcano.
Quoting aspectre:
And for those who ain't got enough apocalyptic scenarios to fret about [blockquote]Vesuvius, which destroyed the Roman city of Pompeii, incinerating and suffocating thousands, is nothing more than a pimple on the back of the sleeping dragon of Campi Flegrei, an active four-mile-wide sunken volcano.[/blockquote]


Is the volcano itself 4 miles wide or the caldera 4 miles wide and where is this one at??
"Campi Flegrei...is a large 13kilometres(8.1miles)wide caldera situated to the west of Naples, Italy...Lying mostly underwater, the area comprises 24 craters and volcanic edifices."

"Campi Flegrei is a large 13-km-wide caldera on the outskirts of Naples...The caldera margins are poorly defined and on the south lie beneath the Gulf of Pozzuoli."
Been reading and studying about volcanoes all my adult life and was not familiar with that one

Thanks!
Christopher C. Burt has an interesting post on historical bird falls in his latest post in our extreme weather blog.

Jeff Masters
Mass bird death mystifies Swedish town
Stockholm - The mass death of a flock of birds in a small Swedish town was to be investigated by veterinarians on Wednesday, local media reported.

Some 50, perhaps as many as 100, dead jackdaws were found on a street in the south-western town of Falkoping late Tuesday evening, reports said.

The area has been cordoned off, Perry Malmberg of the emergency services told Swedish TV.

A few days ago, several thousand dead birds were found in the US state of Arkansas. One theory was that those birds had been shocked by New Year fireworks. Link

Swedish birds 'scared to death': veterinarian
A county veterinarian has speculated that the dead birds that fell from the sky in central Sweden on Tuesday may have been frightened by fireworks, then run over by a car after landing on the road in the dark.
Link
Looks like many of the listed birdfalls occur at the confluence of a radio or radar transmitter and low cloud cover.
Some jets have powerful radar transmitters too, right?
Can vets tell if the birds were "microwaved" in flight?
Complete Update

42 hours until I start my Mexico vacation :)





Strong thunderstorms expected in C FL later this afternoon! Also with these stroms will come very heavy rainfall and it could last most of the night so C FL get ready for a loud night ahead. Some rainfall totals could approach 2" with some of the storms that train over the area.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Strong thunderstorms expected in C FL later this afternoon! Also with these stroms will come very heavy rainfall and it could last most of the night so C FL get ready for a loud night ahead. Some rainfall totals could approach 2" with some of the storms that train over the area.


Does that include Tampa as well?
Quoting BobinTampa:


Does that include Tampa as well?


Yes, all of C FL. Before the storms come dewpoints will rise into the mid 60's and temps may reach 80 as well.
From the SPC

...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
WHILE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE LATER TODAY AS UPPER WAVE DEEPENS TO THE
WEST...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SHIFT NWD INTO THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...STORMS THAT MOVE INLAND
FROM THE ERN GULF TONIGHT WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WLY
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR
NEAR 50 KT...ANY FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE TONIGHT.
thanks doc i will check it out
Well, for what it's worth, I don't yet buy the fireworks theory so far as the Beebe bird deaths go; there are thousands of fireworks shows every 4th of July and New Year's Eve in the US, and many similar shows for other holidays worldwide, yet mass bird kills have never been reported to have accompanied even one so far as I know. It also doesn't seem likely that they became disoriented and suddenly flew into buildings en masse; many were found dead in streets, in fields, in yards--that is, places well away from any structures. No I'm sort of leaning toward something environmental. One item on Mr. Burt's list looks pretty similar:

"Sangongian village, Jiangsu province, China, February 3, 2004: London Mail & Guardian:
More than 10,000 bird fell from the sky onto eastern China's Jiangsu province, the state media reported. The Beijing Youth Daily reported that flocks of bramble finch suddenly fell from the sky onto the Sangong village in taizhou city. Experts from the Jiangsu province agriculture department that because the birds died while in flight, the cause of death may have been contamination in their food, water or environment."

Given that odd plume on the NYE Beebe radar loop shown here yesterday, I wouldn't at all rule out such a thing. At any rate, I'd really like to see some objective third-party, out-of-state necropsy results.
I wonder if this bird kill was some sort of "Secret Government Project" just in case we need to NUKE N Korea. Who knows!
Perhaps it's mass suicide.

Were any of the birds heard to say "Goodbye cruel world!" before they hit the ground?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 AM EST WED JAN 5 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT DAY WILL START OUT THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER FLORIDA AND A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALOFT THE 500 MB FLOW IS STILL ZONAL BUT
BEGINNING TO BUCKLE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR TODAY AN
OVERRUNNING SITUATION WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING OVERTOP OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL CLIMB TO +12C OR HIGHER BUT THIS WILL NOT TRANSLATE FULLY TO
THE SURFACE. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THE OVERRUNNING AND RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS. HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND. CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT A SEA
FOG EVENT DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS OF
NEAR 65 DEGREES ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS TO ADVECT NORTH ON OUR
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THIS POSSIBLE EVENT. CHANGES FOR TONIGHT
INCLUDED INCREASING POPS AS THE GUIDANCE HAS COME UP TO
CATEGORICAL LEVEL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL HAVE DYNAMIC LIFTING SUPPORT FROM A FAIRLY WELL PRONOUNCED
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH SLIDES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT.
A DEEP WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION FLOW WILL AID THE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFTING. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF
THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM MAINLY FROM MANATEE - POLK COUNTY
NORTHWARDS. THERE IS WELL PRONOUNCED JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE...STRONG
LIFT FROM DYNAMIC AND ISENTROPIC SOURCES...AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT. SPC MENTIONS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
NOTED STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS IN THE 0-6KM LEVEL
WHICH IS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
714. Jax82
We need da rain.

Quoting BobinTampa:
Perhaps it's mass suicide.

Were any of the birds heard to say "Goodbye cruel world!" before they hit the ground?


So Long and Thanks for All the Seed.
Apparently near the bird kill area in ARK a fish kill also happened as 150,000 died. I just heard this on the radio according to ARK officials.
GFS is picking up on something coming in from Mexico next week over the cold air
850mb surface temps

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Mass bird death mystifies Swedish town
Stockholm - The mass death of a flock of birds in a small Swedish town was to be investigated by veterinarians on Wednesday, local media reported.

Some 50, perhaps as many as 100, dead jackdaws were found on a street in the south-western town of Falkoping late Tuesday evening, reports said.

The area has been cordoned off, Perry Malmberg of the emergency services told Swedish TV.

A few days ago, several thousand dead birds were found in the US state of Arkansas. One theory was that those birds had been shocked by New Year fireworks. Link

Swedish birds 'scared to death': veterinarian
A county veterinarian has speculated that the dead birds that fell from the sky in central Sweden on Tuesday may have been frightened by fireworks, then run over by a car after landing on the road in the dark.
Link


Why all of a sudden fireworks are killing birds? Something else is happening here.
720. jeza
Quoting Neapolitan:

These past few years, on the other hand, have seen incredible extremes of temperature and precipitation all over : the unprecedented heat wave in Moscow--a decidedly non-desert region; the unprecedented flooding in Pakistan and Australia;....


Don't know that you can call any flood in Australia unprecedented. The records don't go back far enough. Europeans haven't even been here all that long. So we don't know for sure that similar floods didn't occur as recently as 200-300 years ago. In fact every year there is a place in Australia that is in drought (defined as below average rain fall) and other parts that may well be in flood, though most definitely getting above average rain fall. That's the nature of a continent this size.
Quoting Neapolitan:

That's right in line with what many climate scientists had been predicting as the oceans and air warm: fewer storms overall, but more powerful ones when they do occur. For instance, there was but one category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic in the eight years from 1995 through 2002, yet there have been seven in the eight years since then (and there will have been eight if Igor is bumped up, a distinct possibility). I would expect much more of the same in the future.

It may be a bit too premature to show a definitive correlation between the two. We're most likely amidst an active tropical season trend within the Atlantic Basin. Just as there were non-active periods before 1995, there have been other seasons prior to that which produced very strong hurricanes in a short-term stretch. If I recall, there were 6 category 5 hurricanes in a seven year span from 1955 to 1961. And if you would like to include two categories 4 canes (as Igor was), that would bring that total to 8 in that seven year span from 1955 to 1961.

Global warming is a long-term process that may take many more years to subsequently affect the oceanic temperature patterns enough to render proof beyond a reasonable doubt that GW is now exclusively behind stronger hurricanes.
Quoting breald:


Why all of a sudden fireworks are killing birds? Something else is happening here.


I agree! I think this is more on the line of an enviromental issue. Something enviromentally is happening or this is cause by the Government because where I live every night at about 8pm to 9pm you can hear the bombing by US Military. Some people may think my post 711 is far fetched but I don't think so as the US Government test all types of bombs for combat. So I wonder if there is a bombing range near by that is causing this.

NOAA, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service National Climatic Data Center, U.S. Department of Commerce



DOC > NOAA > NESDIS > NCDC
Search Field:

* Climate Monitoring
* Global Climate Change Indicators
* Help

Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends. The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
Quoting Jeff9641:


I agree! I think this is more on the line of an enviromental issue. Something enviromentally is happening or this is cause by the Government because where I live every night at about 8pm to 9pm you can hear the bombing by US Military. Some people may think my post 711 is far fetched but I don't think so as the US Government test all types of bombs for combat. So I wonder if there is a bombing range near by that is causing this.


Where do you live?
Another theory I was thinking of this happened right after several major tornadoes struck the area last Friday. So I wonder if severe wx could have play a part.
Quoting Patrap:
Where can someone find more information about climate change and climate monitoring?

* US Global Change Research Program
* NOAA Climate portal
* Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society State of the Climate report for 2009


Patrap

Those graphs that you have been posting are really exciting.

The graphs clearly indicate that the programmers at NOAA and elsewhere are accomplished to an impressive degree when it come to displaying information in graph form.

I can hardly wait until they are allowed apply their graph making talents on true and complete data as opposed to the altered and tweaked data that they are compelled to use now.

Fiction sometimes makes for an interesting read; yet the truth is so much more fun and exciting.

There is a tingling going up my leg as I write.

I can hardly wait.


Quoting breald:


Where do you live?


Wekiva Springs, FL.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Wekiva Springs, FL.


I doubt they would set of bombs in a populated area like most of Fl. If that is the case, why haven't you seen any dead birds in your area? I too am a little skeptical about that theory.
a href="" target="_blank">I Wish it Would Rain!
Extreme Drought in ECFL
Quoting breald:


I doubt they would set of bombs in a populated area like most of Fl. If that is the case, why haven't you seen any dead birds in your area? I too am a little skeptical about that theory.


Its called Pinecastle Impact Range and it is located in the Ocala National Forest. Operated by the Navy, it is

"the only place on the East Coast where the Navy can do live impact training. The Navy drops nearly 20,000 bombs a year at the site, a few hundred of which are live. The Navy has used nearly 6,000 acres of the 382,000-acre forest for target practice for 50 years under a special use permit from the US Forest Service."

On a quiet evening it should be easy to hear the distant booming of exploding ordinance in Wekiva Springs.


Quoting MichaelSTL:
I also want to add, on the solar-climate connection (and this also includes any supposed natural warming cycles caused by ocean cycles), changes in ocean heat content directly contradict the observed surface warming as being caused by stored heat being released, as some propose as an explanation for why temperatures have continued to rise after solar activity peaked (50 years after the fact), since heat content would be decreasing if this were true (as far as I know, this is only true on a significant scale in the tropical Pacific, during ENSO cycles with El Ninos releasing heat and La Ninas accumulating it, with other patterns only producing slight changes, moreso in the SST patterns than actual heat storage). Also, while the ocean heat content graph I posted appears to show a solar cycle influence, the peaks don't add up; the last two solar cycles peaked in 1989 and 2000 but it shows three peaks in that period (to the present) and only one coincides with a solar maximum (1989).
You are assuming an instant solar cycle to ocean heat correlation with no lag...

Given that we have very poor ocean heat measurements, we cannot say that is the case or not, yet.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Given that odd plume on the NYE Beebe radar loop shown here yesterday, I wouldn't at all rule out such a thing. At any rate, I'd really like to see some objective third-party, out-of-state necropsy results.


It wasn't just 1 plume, but 4 of them between 9pm and 12:30am. The leading edge of the echoes in each plume was moving southeast from Beebe (between Windwood Dr and Arkansas State University South Campus) at 45-55mph.
Quoting Seawall:
Wow, SW Louisiana is finally getting some much needed rain. SE Tx got it's fair share as well. Still way behind rainfall totals, but this will definitely help. Thunder and lightening in January on the Gulf Coast.
Add Kentucky to the states with bird deaths. And along with Point Coupee, here in Calcasieu Parish, in Lake Charles, lots more birds down.
Surely, Shirley, this is Biblical in nature. :)
Quick, everyone go look for dead birds!
(Since everyone is looking, more are surely to be found...)
Quoting jeza:


Don't know that you can call any flood in Australia unprecedented. The records don't go back far enough. Europeans haven't even been here all that long. So we don't know for sure that similar floods didn't occur as recently as 200-300 years ago. In fact every year there is a place in Australia that is in drought (defined as below average rain fall) and other parts that may well be in flood, though most definitely getting above average rain fall. That's the nature of a continent this size.
EDIT: oops!

Quoting calusakat:


Patrap

Those graphs that you have been posting are really exciting.

The graphs clearly indicate that the programmers at NOAA and elsewhere are accomplished to an impressive degree when it come to displaying information in graph form.

I can hardly wait until they are allowed apply their graph making talents on true and complete data as opposed to the altered and tweaked data that they are compelled to use now.

Fiction sometimes makes for an interesting read; yet the truth is so much more fun and exciting.

There is a tingling going up my leg as I write.

I can hardly wait.



Do you have any proof of this "altering and tweaking"? Now before you answer, consider this: so-called "Climategate" was a manufactured controversy that's been completely debunked; no climate scientists were found to be guilty of anything more than bad judgement where a few intra-personal matters were concerned; no data manipulation was found, and the science itself is completely intact. So with that in mind, I ask again: Do you have any proof of this "altering and tweaking"?
Notice! Next text translated by the Google Translate:

This event is reported on 01/03/2011: A survey conducted by the Federation of Fishermen's Colony of Paraná, Paranaguá on the coast of the state, indicates that at least 100 tons of fish (sardine, croaker and catfish) have turned up dead since last Thursday off the coast of Parana.On Sunday, representatives from the Environmental Institute of Paraná (IAP), the Secretary of State for the Environment and Water Resources (SEMA), took samples to verify the reason for the deaths. The report will be released today. The president of the Federation of Fishermen's Colony of Parana, Edmir Manoel Ferreira, reports that between Paranaguá and Guaraqueçaba at least 2,800 fishermen depend on the daily seafood. "On Thursday we began to realize very dead fish. Only one community came to bury 15 tons. We are experiencing a very sad situation on the coast, "reports. Apart from Paranagua, Ferreira said the dead fish are starting to appear in other coastal towns. "The dead fish are going to Antonina, and Guaraqueçaba Pontal do Paraná. We need an urgent solution to this, "he warns.

Captain Edson Oliveira Avila, regional coordinator of Civil Defense in the Paraná region, believes there are three hypotheses for the death of fish."We will wait to see what happened, but speculations suggest that fish may have died due to an environmental imbalance, dropping a fishing boat or leakage of chemicals," he says. Through his press office, the city of Paranagua said the sale of seafood is a precaution, temporarily suspended in the region. "It is not forbidden, but we have oriented people do not purchase or consume these products to avoid any problems. There is no indication that someone has gone bad, "said Avila. The issue was discussed yesterday in a meeting involving the city of Paranaguá, IAP, Brazilian Institute of Environment and Natural Resources (IBAMA) and the Civil Defense of Parana. Reportedly, the IAP said it will only give a ruling today, after the result of the award. The samples were sent to the Centre for Marine Studies (CEM), Universidade Federal do Paraná (UFPR).

The whole situation worries the fishing community of coastal Paraná. "I urge the authorities to look for these workers from the sea. Not just in Paranagua, but throughout our state. When a disaster such sufferers is the fisherman. We can not let that happen ", says Ferreira.
Can anyone of the experts around here explain how man is responsible for the climate change occurring on Mars and Jupiter, i.e. the polar ice caps on Mars retreating, much larger than usual storms on Jupiter???

Hmmmm, I have to wonder as to what is the common denominator these two planets and their climate change have in common with the Earth???

(Hint: It is not humans)

710 Neapolitan "At any rate, I'd really like to see some objective third-party, out-of-state necropsy results."

They're being sent to Wisconsin for testing, with some being sent to Georgia to provide a crosscheck.
Thank you surface low.

And this only through 6 CST; more to come.

Quoting RitaEvac:
GFS is picking up on something coming in from Mexico next week over the cold air
This is cold air for sure. Notice the minus 30 isotherm.....Datz coldt mane......:)
Quoting jeza:


Don't know that you can call any flood in Australia unprecedented. The records don't go back far enough. Europeans haven't even been here all that long. So we don't know for sure that similar floods didn't occur as recently as 200-300 years ago. In fact every year there is a place in Australia that is in drought (defined as below average rain fall) and other parts that may well be in flood, though most definitely getting above average rain fall. That's the nature of a continent this size.

I really wish we could do away with this particular point of contention, one that seems to come up an awful lot (especially with GW contrarians): when talking about records, it's unnecessary in most contexts to always have to qualify any point of data by adding the disclaimer "in recorded history" or "since records were kept" or whatever. Reasonable people assume that stating a record means the stating of a fact in comparison with all the other known facts. For example, people simply say, "Mt. Everest is the tallest mountain on the planet"; few feel the need to add, "That is, right now; there may have been others in the past that have since eroded". Or folks simply say "The coldest temperature ever was -128.6 at Vostok Station in Antarctica"; few see the benefit in adding, "That is, the coldest since records were kept; it's possible there may have been colder temperatures there or elsewhere before." Or people just say, "The tallest man who ever lived was 8 foot, 11 inch Robert Wadlow"; few feel the need to add, "Of course, there may have been taller people in the past, though their heights weren't written down."

But, okay: yes, there very well may have been larger floods in the past. In fact, there likely were. But in the past several hundred years--that is, in recorded history--the Queensland floods are unprecedented in that part of Australia.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


It wasn't just 1 plume, but 4 of them between 9pm and 12:30am. The leading edge of the echoes in each plume was moving southeast from Beebe (between Windwood Dr and Arkansas State University South Campus) at 45-55mph.
do you have any pics, or anything. i would like to see what you all saw on radar. thanks in advance



from Plymouth State imagery...
For a starting point, select ID: LZK, standard base reflectivity, 2011 /
Jan / 1 / 5Z / 30 min, 21 frame JAVA, and 50% zoom factor...  The 1st odd "blow-up"
occurs around 0421Z, then repeats several times after up thru near 07Z /
1 AM CST. [thanks DocNDswamp]

I wonder which one is true for sunday night in my hometown of Millen, GA.... The weather Channel-29 degrees Rain/Snow Showers....Wunderground-31 degrees Rain/Freezing Rain....Weather.gov-32degrees Rain/Freezing Rain!!!!
Quoting gaweatherboi:
I wonder which one is true for sunday night in my hometown of Millen, GA.... The weather Channel-29 degrees Rain/Snow Showers....Wunderground-31 degrees Rain/Freezing Rain....Weather.gov-32degrees Rain/Freezing Rain!!!!


Those are pretty close forecasts for 4 days out...
Quoting GetReal:
Can anyone of the experts around here explain how man is responsible for the climate change occurring on Mars and Jupiter, i.e. the polar ice caps on Mars retreating, much larger than usual storms on Jupiter???

Hmmmm, I have to wonder as to what is the common denominator these two planets and their climate change have in common with the Earth???

(Hint: It is not humans)



Uh, sure:

Global warming on other planets in the solar system

* Mars: the notion that Mars is warming came from an unfortunate conflation of weather and climate. Based on two pictures taken 22 years apart, assumptions were made that have not proved to be reliable. There is currently no evidence to support claims that Mars is warming at all. More on Mars...

* Jupiter: the notion that Jupiter is warming is actually based on predictions, since no warming has actually been observed. Climate models predict temperature increases along the equator and cooling at the poles. It is believed these changes will be catalysed by storms that merge into one super-storm, inhibiting the planet’s ability to mix heat. Sceptical arguments have ignored the fact this is not a phenomenon we have observed, and that the modelled forcing is storm and dust movements, not changes in solar radiation.

* Neptune: observations of changes in luminosity on the surface of both Neptune and its largest moon, Triton, have been taken to indicate warming caused by increased solar activity. In fact, the brightening is due to the planet’s seasons changing, but very slowly. Summer is coming to Neptune’s southern hemisphere, bringing more sunlight, as it does every 164 years.

* Pluto: the warming exhibited by Pluto is not really understood. Pluto’s seasons are the least understood of all: its existence has only been known for a third of its 248 -year orbit, and it has never been visited by a space probe. The ‘evidence’ for climate change consists of just two observations made in 1988 and 2002. That’s equivalent to observing the Earth’s weather for just three weeks out of the year. Various theories suggest its highly elliptical orbit may play a part, as could the large angle of its rotational axis. One recent paper suggests the length of Pluto’s orbit is a key factor, as with Neptune. Sunlight at Pluto is 900 times weaker than it is at the Earth.


In other words, all based on either very infrequent observations or even theoretical model predictions. I mean, I could claim that winter-spring warming is bunk by observing that on one day in January it was 50 degrees and on another day in April it was 30 degrees (which happens just about every year where I live, yet the month of April is always warmer than January).
Quoting JFLORIDA:
The 1st odd "blow-up"
occurs around 0421Z, then repeats several times after up thru near 07Z /
1 AM CST. [thanks DocNDswamp]



Probably should check a nearby sounding or forecast sounding from the time period. The plumes move off to the SE at 45-55mph, yet I'm not sure that those types of birds can fly nearly that fast, especially not for 15 minutes sustained. Unless there was some help from a strong NW wind, I'm having a hard time figuring out what the radar actually could be seeing.
Quoting GetReal:
Can anyone of the experts around here explain how man is responsible for the climate change occurring on Mars and Jupiter, i.e. the polar ice caps on Mars retreating, much larger than usual storms on Jupiter???

Hmmmm, I have to wonder as to what is the common denominator these two planets and their climate change have in common with the Earth???

(Hint: It is not humans)



I would think it would have much more to do with the distance from the sun, the size of planet, the material in which it is composited and it's corresponding atmosphere. If these planets were the same distance from the sun and the same size as our earth, composed of the same material, then your statement could hold water.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Probably should check a nearby sounding or forecast sounding from the time period. The plumes move off to the SE at 45-55mph, yet I'm not sure that those types of birds can fly nearly that fast, especially not for 15 minutes sustained. Unless there was some help from a strong NW wind, I'm having a hard time figuring out what the radar actually could be seeing.


Exactly. Also, when you add in the issue of the ongoing seismic anomaly in the area (small earthquakes nearby), things get really muddled. Maybe a gas release? Also, does anyone know if there is any oil/gas drilling going on in the area?
Quoting MichaelSTL:
...
In other words, all based on either very infrequent observations or even theoretical model predictions.
...

XD
Oh, yeah:





In recent times, the SPEs that occurred on August 4, 1972 and March 1991, have been used by the satellite industry as the worst case SPE events. Since 1561, there have been 19 events more intense than these, with an average arrival interval of 23 years. The overall pace of their arrival is not uniform in time. These two events are the only major ones recorded since 1965. By comparison, during the same 40-year periods between 1850-1890 and between 1890-1930 there were 10 events more intense than the one on August 1972. The current 40-year period has been the least productive in generating large SPEs since as far back as 1670 during the Maunder Minimum!


(solar activity is more than just sunspots and solar flux)



(see the red, newer reconstructions of TSI show less and less variation outside of solar cycles with a definite "floor" to how low activity and TSI can get)

It is LONG past time for the "Sun causes global warming!" nonsense to die - people who repeat it just don't know what they are talking about! Same for "Sun will cause global cooling!".
Quoting JFLORIDA:



from Plymouth State imagery...
For a starting point, select ID: LZK, standard base reflectivity, 2011 /
Jan / 1 / 5Z / 30 min, 21 frame JAVA, and 50% zoom factor...  The 1st odd "blow-up"
occurs around 0421Z, then repeats several times after up thru near 07Z /
1 AM CST. [thanks DocNDswamp]


That anomalous plume looks to be centered just southwest of Beebe, which sits inside White County north of the Lonoke County line. It sure would be a coincidence were a mass bird killing to occur in the same spot and at the same time as some as-yet-unexplained phenomenon causing such an odd radar signature, and yet there be no correlation whatsoever. Then again, stranger things have happened...
Quoting NavarreMark:
The reason dead birds are falling from the sky is because only living birds can fly.
that really should not have made me laugh so hard...
I bet everybody the clueless public and media don't even know that there was a radar plume near where those birds died. You'd think this would be all over the news
Quoting NavarreMark:
The reason dead birds are falling from the sky is because only living birds can fly.


But what caused the birds to suddenly die? I'm pretty sure that most birds when they did do so on the ground because they are too weak to fly. Thus, whatever happened has to be sudden, such as being picked up in a tornado or maybe even a strong updraft (at least the ones in Arkansas, there were no tornadoes in the immediate area but there were tornadoes, up to EF3 intensity, to the northwest and north):

How far do things get carried if they are lifted and carried?

The furthest distance a 1 pound object can be carried is about 100 miles. The furthest known distance a photo or piece of paper was carried was a little over 200 miles. In the Great Bend, Kansas tornado of November 10, 1915, debris from the town was carried 85 miles. After passing through the town, the tornado went through or near Cheyenne Bottoms, now a wildlife area. Hundreds of dead ducks fell from the sky 25 miles northeast of the end of the path. And after the Worcester, Massachusetts tornado of 1953, chunks of soggy, frozen mattress fell into Boston Harbor, 50 miles to the east of where it was picked up.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Do you have any proof of this "altering and tweaking"? Now before you answer, consider this: so-called "Climategate" was a manufactured controversy that's been completely debunked; no climate scientists were found to be guilty of anything more than bad judgement where a few intra-personal matters were concerned; no data manipulation was found, and the science itself is completely intact. So with that in mind, I ask again: Do you have any proof of this "altering and tweaking"?



Don't start with those manufactured misdirections again, please.

The scientists were only absolved of wrongdoing. The authorities made it clear that there was no judgment as to whether or not they altered the data as they freely admitted in the e-mails. In other words, altering the data was not wrong.

NASA and NOAA have also discussed the changing of the data using various excuses, including 'smoothing the data'. They have also admitted to filling in data where data has been determined to be missing.

There is no proof that the data is complete because, as was discussed at length in those same e-mails, they considered the programs and underlying data to be proprietary.

Do you really think that the folks who frequent this blog are so limited in their IQ's that they would so easily forget such things.

Thank God that someone had the character to leak those e-mails so that we could see for ourselves just how dishonest they really are when it comes to AGW.


Dr. Masters has opened a new blog
Quoting NavarreMark:
The reason dead birds are falling from the sky is because only living birds can fly.
LOL...that and McDonalds is having a sale on "chicken" McNuggets (footnote: Jay Leno)
Quoting calusakat:



Don't start with those manufactured misdirections again, please.

The scientists were only absolved of wrongdoing. The authorities made it clear that there was no judgment as to whether or not they altered the data as they freely admitted in the e-mails. In other words, altering the data was not wrong.

NASA and NOAA have also discussed the changing of the data using various excuses, including 'smoothing the data'. They have also admitted to filling in data where data has been determined to be missing.

There is no proof that the data is complete because, as was discussed at length in those same e-mails, they considered the programs and underlying data to be proprietary.

Do you really think that the folks who frequent this blog are so limited in their IQ's that they would so easily forget such things.

Thank God that someone had the character to leak those e-mails so that we could see for ourselves just how dishonest they really are when it comes to AGW.



Smoothing data is a widely accepted scientific and statistical practice to reduce the impact of outliers that are not representative of the trend.
Quoting JFLORIDA:



from Plymouth State imagery...
For a starting point, select ID: LZK, standard base reflectivity, 2011 /
Jan / 1 / 5Z / 30 min, 21 frame JAVA, and 50% zoom factor...  The 1st odd "blow-up"
occurs around 0421Z, then repeats several times after up thru near 07Z /
1 AM CST. [thanks DocNDswamp]

that is interesting
Quoting jeffs713:


Exactly. Also, when you add in the issue of the ongoing seismic anomaly in the area (small earthquakes nearby), things get really muddled. Maybe a gas release? Also, does anyone know if there is any oil/gas drilling going on in the area?


That was actually one of the first things I tried to look into while plotting the radar data over geographic data in GR2Analyst. So far it seems like 3 of the plumes originated in the open area between Windwood Drive and Arkansas State University's South Campus. The other one was slightly NW of the other 3, near the business area at the expressway exit.

Guy, AR, where the ongoing earthquake swarm has been located, is a bit to the NW of Beebe. Maybe 50-100 miles. I would imagine that toxic gases released in a populated area like this would have caused more problems than just killing one species of bird...
Quoting Neapolitan:

That anomalous plume looks to be centered just southwest of Beebe, which sits inside White County north of the Lonoke County line. It sure would be a coincidence were a mass bird killing to occur in the same spot and at the same time as some as-yet-unexplained phenomenon causing such an odd radar signature, and yet there be no correlation whatsoever. Then again, stranger things have happened...


Plume#1 around 0426z when it reaches 47dbz.

One scan later (04430z), plume#1's leading edge has moved to the southeast with a estimated 50kt speed.