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Massive African Dust Storm Cooling Atlantic Hurricane Odds for Early August

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:10 PM GMT on July 31, 2013

A massive dust storm that formed over the Sahara Desert early this week has now pushed out over the tropical Atlantic, and will sharply reduce the odds of tropical storm formation during the first week of August. The dust is accompanied by a large amount of dry air, which is making the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) much drier than usual this week. June and July are the peak months for dust storms in the Southwest Sahara, and this week's dust storm is a typical one for this time of year. Due in large part to all the dry and dusty air predicted to dominate the tropical Atlantic over the next seven days, none of the reliable computer models is predicting Atlantic tropical cyclone formation during the first week of August.


Figure 1. A massive dust storm moves off the coast of Africa in this MODIS image taken at 1:40 UTC July 30, 2013. Image credit: NASA.


Video 1. The predicted movement through August 3 of this week's Africam dust storm, using the NOAA NGAC aerosol model. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

How dust affects hurricanes
Saharan dust can affect hurricane activity in several ways:

1) Dust acts as a shield which keeps sunlight from reaching the surface. Thus, large amounts of dust can keep the sea surface temperatures up to 1°C cooler than average in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean, providing hurricanes with less energy to form and grow. Ocean temperatures in the MDR are currently 0.7°F above average, and this anomaly should cool this week as the dust blocks sunlight.

2) The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is a layer of dry, dusty Saharan air that rides up over the low-level moist air over the tropical Atlantic. At the boundary between the SAL and low-level moist air where the trade winds blow is the trade wind inversion--a region of the atmosphere where the temperature increases with height. Since atmospheric temperature normally decreases with height, this "inversion" acts to but the brakes on any thunderstorms that try to punch through it. This happens because the air in a thunderstorm's updraft suddenly encounters a region where the updraft air is cooler and less buoyant than the surrounding air, and thus will not be able to keep moving upward. The dust in the SAL absorbs solar radiation, which heats the air in the trade wind inversion. This makes the inversion stronger, which inhibits the thunderstorms that power a hurricane.

3) Dust may also act to produce more clouds, but this effect needs much more study. If the dust particles are of the right size to serve as "condensation nuclei"--centers around which raindrops can form and grow--the dust can act to make more clouds. Thus, dust could potentially aid in the formation and intensification of hurricanes. However, if the dust acts to make more low-level clouds over the tropical Atlantic, this will reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the ocean, cooling the sea surface temperatures and discouraging hurricane formation (Kaufman et al., 2005.)


Figure 2. Map of the mean summer dust optical thickness derived from satellite measurements between 1979 and 2000. Maximum dust amounts originate in the northern Sahel (15° to 18° N) and the Sahara (18° to 22° N). The Bodele depression in Chad is also an active dust source. Image credit: Evidence of the control of summer atmospheric transport of African dust over the Atlantic by Sahel sources from TOMS satellites (1979-2000), by C. Moulin and I. Chiapello, published in January 2004 in Geophysical Research Letters.

Dust in Africa's Sahel region and Atlantic hurricane activity
The summertime dust that affects Atlantic tropical storms originates over the southwestern Sahara (18° - 22° N) and the northwestern Sahel (15° - 18° N) (Figure 3.) The dust from the Southwest Sahara stays relatively constant from year to year, but the dust from the Northwest Sahel varies significantly, so understanding this variation may be a key factor in improving our forecasts of seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The amount of dust that gets transported over the Atlantic depends on a mix of three main factors: the large scale and local scale weather patterns (windy weather transports more dust), how wet the current rainy season is (wet weather will wash out dust before it gets transported over the Atlantic), and how dry and drought-damaged the soil is. The level of drought experienced in the northwestern Sahel during the previous year is the key factor of the three in determining how much dust gets transported over the Atlantic during hurricane season, according to a January 2004 study published in Geophysical Research Letters published by C. Moulin and I. Chiapello. In 2012 (Figure 3), precipitation across the northwestern Sahel was much above average, which should result in less dust than usual over the Atlantic this fall, increasing the odds of a busy 2013 hurricane season.


Figure 3. Rainfall over the Northwest Sahel region of Africa was about 200% of average during the 2012 rainy season. The heavy rains promoted vigorous vegetation growth in 2013, resulting in less bare ground capable of generating dust. Image credit: NOAA/Climate Prediction Center.

The future of African dust: highly uncertain
A September 2013 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by Joseph Prospero and Olga Mayol-Bracero, "Understanding the Transport and Impact of African Dust on the Caribbean Basin," discusses the large uncertainties on how African dust may change due to climate change. Over the past decade, there has been no clear relationship between African dust and climate indices such as rainfall in the Sahel or the El Niño/La Niña cycle, which "makes it difficult to predict how dust emissions and transport might change over the coming decades as climate changes. The problem is exacerbated by the inability of models (IPCC 2007) to agree on future rainfall trends over large areas of North Africa (including the Sahel) that are known to be major dust sources today and in the recent past."

Links
Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin

Atlantic dust forecast from the Tel-Aviv University Weather Research Center

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) was first described in 1972, in this classic paper: Carlson, T. N., and J. M. Prospero (1972), The Large-Scale Movement of Saharan Air Outbreaks over the Northern Equatorial Atlantic, Journal of Applied Meteorology, 11(2), 283-297

Dr. Amato Evan published a study in Science magazine March 2009 showing that 69% of the increase in Atlantic sea surface temperatures over the past 26 years could be attributed to decreases in the amount of dust in the atmosphere.

Kaufman, Y. J., I. Koren, L. A. Remer, D. Rosenfeld, and Y. Rudich, 2005a: The effect of smoke, dust, and pollution aerosol on shallow cloud development over the Atlantic Ocean. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 102, 11 207–11 212.

Wang, Chunzai, Shenfu Dong, Amato T. Evan, Gregory R. Foltz, Sang-Ki Lee, 2012, Multidecadal Covariability of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature, African Dust, Sahel Rainfall, and Atlantic Hurricanes, J. Climate, 25, 5404–5415.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00413.1

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 3494. Bluestorm5:
Nope... DMAX peak at sunrise. DMIN peak at sunset.


Don't quote trolls.
Quoting 3501. galvestonhurricane:


Don't quote trolls.
I'm no troll.
Quoting 3500. Grothar:
latest models.




No offense, Gro, but this thing is not even worth tracking. I've tracked normal thunderstorms stronger than this blob.
Quoting 3502. HurricaneAndre:
I'm no troll.
amen.
3505. Grothar
Quoting 3504. TomTaylor:
amen.
thanks.
Gro....do you recall a cane, TS, TD, or L that traversed the Atlantic and then pulled a straight 90 degree turn "just" off the coast here?
Quoting 3502. HurricaneAndre:
I'm no troll.
You sure act like one...
Quoting 3497. mitchelace5:


What's AOI? Area of Interest?


Could the NHC highlight that area near Africa tomorrow or something? I'm not sure, because although its a big, vigorous wave, it's fightin' dry air.
Quoting 3509. mitchelace5:


Could the NHC highlight that area near Africa tomorrow or something? I'm not sure, because although Its a big, vigorous wave, it's fightin' dry air.
maybe,there's a low with it too.
Quoting 3510. HurricaneAndre:
maybe,there's a low with it too.


But what about that dry air around it though?
Quoting 3511. mitchelace5:


But what about that dry air around it though?
Some storms can fight the dry air.
Quoting 3512. HurricaneAndre:
Some storms can fight the dry air.


This one looks pretty vigorous to me. What do you think?
3514. Thrawst
OK, I stand a little corrected.

This wave (ex-Dorian), I thought it had gone by with no problem... but NOW, this thing is backbuilding. We had some serious wind gusts over 35mph just now before a massive thunderstorm came and basically wiped out our beach party (hehe, awwww yeah)... so now i'm home.

Flooding is starting to become scattered over many places in Nassau.
Quoting 3513. mitchelace5:


This one looks pretty vigorous to me. What do you think?
it'll make it.
3516. Grothar
Quoting 3503. galvestonhurricane:


No offense, Gro, but this thing is not even worth tracking. I've tracked normal thunderstorms stronger than this blob.


You know I don't often disagree with most people, I have to on this one. Even though you live in the Gulf region, the coast of Florida has a unique weather oddity. Since the Gulfstream is on our east and mostly warm waters on our west and obviously totally surrounded by warm waters, I have seen these spin into terrible flooding events many times. I remember one in the early 90's when they said to expect 1-3 inches of rain and we all of South Florida got stuck in rush hour traffic when we got 7 inches of rain in less than 2 hours and a total of of 15 inches. It also just happened with Andrea when most of Fort Lauderdale and Miami were flooded.

I never for a minute, thought this was going to be a hurricane, but I think many of us don't see a Cat 5 and we dismiss it.

As I wrote earlier, even depressions cause us tremendous amount of damage much more than do most states. I remember that Texans didn't take Tropical Storm Allison seriously and more than 50 people died when you got over 40 inches of rain.

It most definitely is worth tracking.
Quoting 3515. HurricaneAndre:
it'll make it.


Quoting 3514. Thrawst:
OK, I stand a little corrected.

This wave (ex-Dorian), I thought it had gone by with no problem... but NOW, this thing is backbuilding. We had some serious wind gusts over 35mph just now before a massive thunderstorm came and basically wiped out our beach party (hehe, awwww yeah)... so now i'm home.

Flooding is starting to become scattered over many places in Nassau.


Interesting observations.. keep em coming
Quoting 3516. Grothar:


You know I don't often disagree with most people, I have to on this one. Even though you live in the Gulf region, the coast of Florida has a unique weather oddity. Since the Gulfstream is on our east and mostly warm waters on our west and obviously totally surrounded by warm waters, I have seen these spin into terrible flooding events many times. I remember one in the early 90's when they said to expect 1-3 inches of rain and we all of South Florida got stuck in rush hour traffic when we got 7 inches of rain in less than 2 hours and a total of of 15 inches. It also just happened with Andrea when most of Fort Lauderdale and Miami were flooded.

I never for a minute, thought this was going to be a hurricane, but I think many of us don't see a Cat 5 and we dismiss it.

As I wrote earlier, even depressions cause us tremendous amount of damage much more than do most states. I remember that Texans didn't take Tropical Storm Allison seriously and more than 50 people died when you got over 40 inches of rain.

It most definitely is worth tracking.


Thanks for the response! I welcome disagreement and reasonable discussion, and I definitely understand from where you are coming.
Quoting 3517. mitchelace5:


Also, any high shear ahead of it?
a little.
Quoting 3520. HurricaneAndre:
a little.


It should be able to fight the shear as well IMO
3522. Grothar
Quoting 3507. CosmicEvents:
Gro....do you recall a cane, TS, TD, or L that traversed the Atlantic and then pulled a straight 90 degree turn "just" off the coast here?


As a matter of fact I do. I also remember when a little disturbance was right on the coast and they told us it might be a small rain event and really didn't need to put our shutters up. ON the coast it turned into a little hurricane called Katrina and cost me about 14,000 in damages.

You can see it didn't become a hurricane until it hit the coast

3523. Grothar
Quoting 3519. galvestonhurricane:


Thanks for the response! I welcome disagreement and reasonable discussion, and I definitely understand from where you are coming.


It's just that I hate getting wet.
Quoting 3507. CosmicEvents:
Gro....do you recall a cane, TS, TD, or L that traversed the Atlantic and then pulled a straight 90 degree turn "just" off the coast here?

Hope you dont mind butting in, but I did see your post and wanted to say that when I was young I remember Dennis heading towards the SFl area , then it did a sharp turn to the north...
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF DORIAN...EXTENDS FROM 28N78W
BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND S FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 23N81W MOVING NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 76W AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER SE FLORIDA ON FRI AND SAT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
...Up to 40% for the TWO @ 2am, now...
40%/40% for 91L.

1. A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF
DORIAN...ARE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES...AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BRINGING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
3528. cg2916
A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF
DORIAN...ARE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES...AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BRINGING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
The NEW TWO has 40%/40%
Quoting 3523. Grothar:


It's just that I hate getting wet.
lol....you should write a book with that title. See you all tomorrow.
3532. Grothar
Quoting 3524. OminousCloud:

Hope you dont mind butting in, but I did see your post and wanted to say that when I was young I remember Dennis heading towards the SFl area , then it did a sharp turn to the north...


They do all kinds of crazy things.
3533. Grothar

Did the 2 AM come out yet???
Quoting 3502. HurricaneAndre:
I'm no troll.



Trolls are bad, cause lots of annoyances and problems. HurricaneAndre might be eager and ask lots of questions and suggest lots of areas may become storms, but he doesn't come close to troll worthy. He's just another very young member who's excited to learn. A little over enthusiasm is annoying to many more serious members, but at least he's trying to learn. Totally agree with you Gro, this invest of what use to be Dorian is very interesting, has the potential to form, and is worth tracking. Usually an invest off Southern Florida would garner lots of interest. Has cried wolf one time too many for some.
The weather channel pisses me off... They are showing a segment on xDorian from 1050PMEDT. Its freaking 155AMEDT..Ughh
Quoting 3533. Grothar:

Did the 2 AM come out yet???


yep. 40% chance
some slight mess up of words from NHC....some parts read 30% and some read 40%....LMAO
Quoting 3534. Tribucanes:



Trolls are bad, cause lots of annoyances and problems. HurricaneAndre might be eager and ask lots of questions and suggest lots of areas may become storms, but he doesn't come close to troll worthy. He's just another very young member who's excited to learn. A little over enthusiasm is annoying to many more serious members, but at least he's trying to learn. Totally agree with you Gro, this invest of what use to be Dorian is very interesting, has the potential to form, and is worth tracking. Usually an invest off Southern Florida would garner lots of interest. Has cried wolf one time too many for some.


So am I.
Quoting 3534. Tribucanes:



Trolls are bad, cause lots of annoyances and problems. HurricaneAndre might be eager and ask lots of questions and suggest lots of areas may become storms, but he doesn't come close to troll worthy. He's just another very young member who's excited to learn. A little over enthusiasm is annoying to many more serious members, but at least he's trying to learn. Totally agree with you Gro, this invest of what use to be Dorian is very interesting, has the potential to form, and is worth tracking. Usually an invest off Southern Florida would garner lots of interest. Has cried wolf one time too many for some.
thanks.
40% shows NHC is very interested. Percentage of 40% invests that form is well over 40%. More like 60-70% of invests that NHC tag 40% form.
Quoting 3537. TampaSpin:
some slight mess up of words from NHC....some parts read 30% and some read 40%....LMAO
New TWO product.
I'm going to sleep now.
When I wake up I expect to find 2 million in a briefcase on the table...would you believe a TS...how about a red circle with an attitude...
Where is Bryan Norcross when you need him!
3544. Grothar
I just went outside and it is a hot humid night. The upper clouds are beginning to move quickly to the north along the coast, that is not their usual pattern.

3545. Grothar
Quoting 3542. CosmicEvents:
I'm going to sleep now.
When I wake up I expect to find 2 million in a briefcase on the table...would you believe a TS...how about a red circle with an attitude...


If not I know we don't have a deal. LOL
Quoting 3544. Grothar:
I just went outside and it is a hot humid night. The upper clouds are beginning to move quickly to the north along the coast, that is not their usual pattern.



Where are you located?
Is the frontal boundary in the Carolinas still stationary?
3548. Grothar
Quoting 3546. yankees440:


Where are you located?


Bismarck, North Dakota.
No, Fort Lauderdale on the beach.
Quoting 3547. mitchelace5:
Is the frontal boundary in the FL Panhandle to the Carolinas still stationary?



LOOKS like its moving back North some on here....maybe HIGH pressure is pushing it back north some. Don't know!

3550. Grothar
Some good waves coming across



Quoting 3548. Grothar:


Bismarck, North Dakota.
No, Fort Lauderdale on the beach.


I'm just north in Deerfield Beach..Clouds moving ENE to WSW looks like
Quoting 3550. Grothar:
Some good waves coming across





Does any of them have the potential for development?
Grothar, how goes it neighbor?

Yeah quite the humid night this evening.

The atmosphere is ripe for storm brewery, thats for sure :)
Quoting 3551. yankees440:


I'm just north in Deerfield Beach..Clouds moving ENE to WSW looks like


Good evening neighbor!
Quoting 3554. DeerfieldBeachGuy:


Good evening neighbor!


Same to you...
Weird. Must be a T-Storm Outflow boundary.
METAR MYNN 020600Z 24013G23KT 5700 SHRA SCT010CB BKN012TCU BKN035 OVC100 24/23 A3000 RMK CB/TCU OVHD/ALQDS WSHFT 15 PK WND 24030/0517
Quoting 3535. yankees440:
The weather channel pisses me off... They are showing a segment on xDorian from 1050PMEDT. Its freaking 155AMEDT..Ughh
Ha! Why would anyone even waste their time watching The Weather Channel for any type of serious up to date information during the Hurricane Season. All you're going to see is Mr. Potato Head (Al Roker) standing on the coast with his Bass Pro Shop Out Door World Gore Tex rain jacket on getting soaking wet trying to fool TV viewers into thinking he's a real Weatherman. Oh by the way, it's three hours till Wake Up With Al comes on. I better set may clock.
No...the convection associated with ex-Dorian/91L is over Andros and Nassau

Link
Hurricane Gil moving westward while intensifying
My new blog update on Hurricane Gil. I'll do a blog entry on invest 91L and other interests in the Atlantic later today probably.
The barometer on my personal weather station here in West palm beach is falling fast. It took a nose dive in the past hour
Quoting 3560. WPBstormchaser:
The barometer on my personal weather station here in West palm beach is falling fast. It took a nose dive in the past hour


Interesting
3562. 7544
hi gro and others did it just make a big wobble west hmmm
Quoting 3560. WPBstormchaser:
The barometer on my personal weather station here in West palm beach is falling fast. It took a nose dive in the past hour


That's a diurnal effect of the air rising off the ocean creating a low pressure area. D-MAX effect if you will. It will rise again in the morning. If you look at every other station in the area for the past week you'll notice the same 2x daily pattern.

In other words, NOT related to 91L.
3564. 7544
Quoting 3560. WPBstormchaser:
The barometer on my personal weather station here in West palm beach is falling fast. It took a nose dive in the past hour


Interesting

what does that indicate wpb? tia
Wow... Dorian still not dead yet
Gil stays at 75 knots in the 06z ATCF update.

EP, 07, 2013080206, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1269W, 75, 985, HU
EP, 90, 2013080206, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1176W, 25, 1009, LO
EP, 91, 2013080206, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1370W, 25, 1009, DB
.
No change in strength for 91L.

AL, 91, 2013080206, , BEST, 0, 252N, 792W, 25, 1013, WV
Ex-Dorian is just off the coast from me so we should get some rain in next 12 to 24 hrs
Quoting 3564. 7544:
Quoting 3560. WPBstormchaser:
The barometer on my personal weather station here in West palm beach is falling fast. It took a nose dive in the past hour


Interesting

what does that indicate wpb? tia
3573. 7544
Quoting 3572. WPBstormchaser:
Ex-Dorian is just off the coast from me so we should get some rain in next 12 to 24 hrs


thanks looks like a stall at this hour and the blob could get bigger be interesting to see how the west part will grow this could tell us how much rain u can get
Still lacking convergence


Divergence increasing
Pretty obvious where the "center" is.. moving NNW.
KAMX Velocity 8hr loop.
Quoting 3575. weathersp:
Pretty obvious where the "center" is.. moving NNW.
KAMX Velocity 8hr loop.


How is this radar read?
I actually wasn't guessing on that center fix because I looked at surface barometric observations... which suggested the center relocated at 8pm by 60 miles or so to the south in response to the blowup of convection over Cuba. The center had been closer to the bahamas then the pressure spiked up at the nassau and miami observation stations.

Even though it relocated to the south, the direction of movement appears to be slowly to the north or northwest, just 10mph or so, using this local TV station radar which is at wsvn.com:

Here is 2:40am:


Here is 10pm:




Quoting 3303. sar2401:

Go further south on that radar and I think you'll see the "rotation" is from thunderstorms coming off Cuba. If you're guess about the location of the COC is right, the NHC is off by about 200 miles - seems unlikely to me.
Can't sleep...Just noticed light winds across SE Florida with a falling barometer. The southern Miami-Dade reporting stations have a light WEST wind while the rest of Dade, Broward, Palm Beach has either calm or EAST NORTHEAST winds.
3579. 7544
looks like a stall from here not moving at all
New area of convection that has recently developed is where the LLC is and it's in the process of closing off. This is to the NE of where convection was strongest earlier this morning. Development is underway to at least a TD tomorrow or even TS most likely.
Quoting 3580. Tribucanes:
New area of convection that has recently developed is where the LLC is and it's in the process of closing off. This is to the NE of where convection was strongest earlier this morning. Development is underway to at least a TD tomorrow or even TS most likely.


Where?? Just to the North of Andros or West where the main convection is?
Looking at surface observations, the center is headed towards Miami and Fort Lauderdale.

Here is Homestead Air Force Base.
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KHST.html


Hourly Pressure drop of .05 in Fort Lauderdale, but .04 in Miami, just happening in the last 2 hours:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =pvgf1
3584. vis0
a pet peeve (since Senior Lecturer  Lee Grenci had a blog on one) of mine how i read watch out anytime a TS goes over warmer waters. (5 green dashed circles indicate areas where DORIAN flourished, 3 of the circles turned up very light in colour hard to see).

Some graphics showing ocean features that can influence weather


(links below)

To me TsF (Tropical storm Formations) have three steering levels. upper, Mid & low and within each many other things that influence storms..
More than not warm waters is needed. Similar
needs occur at the other 2 levels its just those are not
as easy to measure as the temperature of water so
its not noticed yet or too difficult for the layman to read..
Won't bother explaining some other influences, specially as to the upper level as it deals with an area of science modern science is just discovering. (Clues in my blog at wxu)
Just watch the ANI and notice how DORIAN became
(relatively) healthier when going over cooler waters.
Tried to match  SAT to recent Ocean temperatures NOT AN ANOMALY MAP)

Will this trend continue, lets see what happens in 3-5 days.
Posted 3 wks ago what i expected as to the time between July 22-24th till Aug. 5-7 2013, it was 1 Hurr . 2 TS and posted where they'd travel from Africa of off the Carolinas


The ANI of temperature graphs are as to
interesting sites (to me) on ocean temperatures.
Here are some:
http://ocean-pro.com/htmfiles/gulfstream2.htm

http://oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/atlantic/atl antic-videos.html

Other sites, though read links as some might have specific opinions that determine whats presented.

http://www.marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?produ ct=sst®ion=floridacoast¬humbs=0

(for past readings or toturials) http://oceanmotion.org/html/resources/ssedv.htm

If anyone wants to see the RECENT TS predictions i made (stuck to) please read or see the captures posted on my blog. If one reads (tries to) you'll see predictions as to TsF.
On blogs since i've posted as vis0 you'll read predictions of earthquakes at 85% (12 of 14) since 2010, 3 times to watch for tornadic activity near or in NYC and three times Tornadoes touched on NYC soil (Brooklyn twice).
When i posted on TWCh board 1998-2002 had 4 yrs at 96% predicting TS. i must have a great crystal ball.

Will be busy writing a real story as to a modern crime, the use of sound to murder (or have people become very sick (internaly acidic), severely depressed thus commit suicide) since the 1960s. Chances are those in this crime consortium won't be too happy, but i do things to help all,peace
The excellent Tampa consolidator is showing a center of circulation further west than I had it. But it is weak and to talk about a TS is ridiculous because the thunderstorms are dying out now.

Take a look at 0600Z, or 2am:


Compare to 8pm, or 0000Z:


And to see the update on this at 8am, use this link
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL912013

Quoting 3581. yankees440:


Where?? Just to the North of Andros or West where the main convection is?
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013

...GIL CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 127.3W
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013

GIL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE
COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION SHRINKING. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE EAST SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION...WHICH IS LIKELY THE CAUSE OF THE DEGRADED
SATELLITE APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 75 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES...BUT
THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS GIL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BEYOND A COUPLE OF
DAYS...SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED WHEN GIL MOVES OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHEAR. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...A
HEADING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE RIDGE
EXPANDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ONLY SMALL
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST LIES VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 14.6N 127.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 14.7N 128.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 14.9N 130.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 15.1N 131.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 15.0N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 14.5N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 14.0N 142.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Howdy All,

Well, isn't this interesting! Looks like xD has fooled all the local mets here (Lantana). Mike Lyons on ch 25 said last night, "the NHC put a 20% chance of development at 2pm, but I expect they'll remove that by the 8pm TWO. As you can see convection is waning...so spotty rain showers tomorrow with about a 40% chance of rain...looks to be a great weekend folks!"

Of course the NHC upped the TC chance to 30% at 8pm, and now at 40%, the NWS has upped its rain chances to 70%! Lyons wasn't the only one, I haven't heard any local mets figure this one right.
3591. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!! Coffee and Tea are perked..enjoy......
3592. LargoFl
40% now..they still think it will join with the trough...
3593. LargoFl
3594. LargoFl
3595. LargoFl
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF
DORIAN...ARE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES...AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BRINGING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
3597. LargoFl
Quoting 3595. LargoFl:


Picked up 0.04" last night a little before 9pm, nothing since then.

More circles coming?

Quoting 3598. mikatnight:


Picked up 0.04" last night a little before 9pm, nothing since then.

More circles coming?

I see the color pink!@
3600. LargoFl
Quoting 3598. mikatnight:


Picked up 0.04" last night a little before 9pm, nothing since then.

More circles coming?

well IF dorian goes nw then N..he may bring showers and wind right up the coast, right now he's not moving and until he takes that northern path im watching him closely..there are two models that bring him into florida..at least so far...he may well go to 50-60% later on today..he IS sitting now right on top of the gulfstream waters..we'll see, we must remember this storm has fooled the experts how many times already lol..
very good spin with this tropical low with heavy t.storms and rain!
Notice the spin about 150 miles due east of Lake Ockachobie... Is that a reformation of the center?

3603. LargoFl
3606. LargoFl
I havent found any of the sites I have..that say dorian will go towards the gulf..they all say he will get absorbed into that trough and head Northward...we'll see if that does in fact happen..he's way too close to florida huh.
Quoting 3590. mikatnight:
Howdy All,

Well, isn't this interesting! Looks like xD has fooled all the local mets here (Lantana). Mike Lyons on ch 25 said last night, "the NHC put a 20% chance of development at 2pm, but I expect they'll remove that by the 8pm TWO. As you can see convection is waning...so spotty rain showers tomorrow with about a 40% chance of rain...looks to be a great weekend folks!"

Of course the NHC upped the TC chance to 30% at 8pm, and now at 40%, the NWS has upped its rain chances to 70%! Lyons wasn't the only one, I haven't heard any local mets figure this one right.


Just because the local mets don't agree with the NHC doesn't mean they're wrong. The NHC could be wrong. Looking at it this morning, convection looks extremely pathetic, I've seen more menacing looking afternoon sprinkles.
3608. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES COLLIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FUNNEL CLOUDS AND BRIEF
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
Convergence starting to increase



Excellent divergence over system
3610. barbamz


Good morning from scorching Germany (scorching temperature wise). The spin of the Dorian wave east of southern Florida is now nicely showing up on TPW animation. Hope it won't be a big rain event and move out to sea quickly.
Click to enlarge.
here we go
Dry air retreating in the EA ..... Storm that just came off the coast looks healthy
3614. LargoFl
Local mets dont think this will be a west coast event,they are going with the NHC forecast..for it to move northward then out to sea
3615. LargoFl
3616. barbamz
Drought Continue to Wreak Havoc Across China
The prolonged heat wave has brought drought to many parts of the country. Rivers have dried up, and people and livestock are facing serious shortages of drinking water. - Youtube video, published Aug 1.
Quoting 3607. Forsaken:


Just because the local mets don't agree with the NHC doesn't mean they're wrong. The NHC could be wrong. Looking at it this morning, convection looks extremely pathetic, I've seen more menacing looking afternoon sprinkles.


Who is this, Mike Lyons or Steve Weagle? ;)
3619. LargoFl
Nam takes him northward after a brush with the east coast...
3620. barbamz
Baby elephant frolics in paddling pool
BBC video from Texas, Aug 2: Something funny to cheer you up!
3621. LargoFl
GFS says northward also.................
looks like yet another near miss for florida. the force feild sheild is still up
Truly disappointing...... Not even a drop here in Miami.
Quoting 3623. itsalloverfolks:
looks like yet another near miss for florida. the force feild sheild is still up


Never understood that phrase. Wouldn't a near miss be a hit? I mean, if it nearly missed you...

Just like the airlines like to say, it's time to get on the plane. I don't know about you, but I'm not getting on the plane, I'm getting in the plane!
Quoting 3610. barbamz:


Good morning from scorching Germany (scorching temperature wise). The spin of the Dorian wave east of southern Florida is now nicely showing up on TPW animation. Hope it won't be a big rain event and move out to sea quickly.
Click to enlarge.
it will move out to sea soon. 20% chance of some sprinkle thats all.should get our daily shattered t storms though
Quoting 3626. mikatnight:


Never understood that phrase. Wouldn't a near miss be a hit? I mean, if it nearly missed you...

Just like the airlines like to say, it's time to get on the plane. I don't know about you, but I'm not getting on the plane, I'm getting in the plane!
ok basically florida isnt getting much other then a sprinkle or 2 from our daily seabrezze colison which we get almost every day, but nothing from dorian
Quoting 3623. itsalloverfolks:
looks like yet another near miss for florida. the force feild sheild is still up
that sound like star wars talk to me.
Quoting 3629. hurricanes2018:
that sound like star wars talk to me.
use the force luke :)
Its always the same crapola...... A storm approaches SFl , it gets very close, u can actually see it on radar,the western half collapses leaving us here in SFl waving from our shoreline..... Why???? I mean, like 90% of the time. How disappointing,.again!
How did he avoid my ignore list?
3633. LargoFl
3634. LargoFl
3635. LargoFl
3636. Grothar
Just in

3637. LargoFl
3638. beell
Subsidence along with 30-40 knot N/NE winds associated with the upper ridge still seems to be a negative for development and excessive rainfall.


08/02 06Z GFS 200 mb-Valid 12Z, Sunday morning.
Low level circulation, if there is one, looks like its around 24.5N, with a few storms starting to fire.
sure is not moving much might see a model change stall over e cen florida?
3641. Grothar
Quoting 3640. islander101010:
sure is not moving much might see a model change stall over e cen florida?
lol now thats funny
3643. beell
Quoting 3631. OminousCloud:
Its always the same crapola...... A storm approaches SFl , it gets very close, u can actually see it on radar,the western half collapses leaving us here in SFl waving from our shoreline..... Why???? I mean, like 90% of the time. How disappointing,.again!
its the florida force field that set up after the 2004 season...
Quoting 3617. mikatnight:


Who is this, Mike Lyons or Steve Weagle? ;)
Glen Glaser or Kait Parker ?
3646. Grothar
Quoting 3626. mikatnight:


Never understood that phrase. Wouldn't a near miss be a hit? I mean, if it nearly missed you...

Just like the airlines like to say, it's time to get on the plane. I don't know about you, but I'm not getting on the plane, I'm getting in the plane!


Same reason you drive on a 'Park'way and park in the "drive"way. Please Mik, don't make me think in the morning. It hurts.
3647. Grothar
Quoting 3645. PalmBeachWeather:
Glen Glaser or Kait Parker ?


Buffalo Annie and Bill Oakley?
Quoting 3644. itsalloverfolks:
its the florida force field that set up after the 2004 season...Quoting 3644. itsalloverfolks:
its the florida force field that set up after the 2004 season...

Lol.... Seems that way....
Looks like the buzzard pest got a new handle. Check out the member join date 8/1 lol.
3650. beell
These things are often wrong but here's the 3 day QPF from the WPC:

Good morning to all.

I don't see any models apart from 91L posted in the overnight pages so I assume they continue quiet not showing anything in the Atlantic.
3652. LargoFl
we here in florida must watch this storm closely today, there are several models that take 91L into florida and one takes it thru florida into the gulf..remember it hasnt become a tropical storm yet and things are fluid..until it does in fact head out to sea we must watch it closely...it has fooled the mets how many times now?
the buzzard has the day off. garbage day was yesterday
3654. barbamz

First daylight.
Percent increase at 8am EST?
3656. tkdaime
where is coc of invest dorian now
3657. LargoFl
3658. beell
Some healthy totals not too far offshore in this model (NAM). Just a little nudge to the left in the forecast precip could cause some problems.


08/02 06Z NAM-Accumulated precipitation through 12Z Sunday

Same product and time-06Z GFS.



3659. LargoFl
7-day for the Tampa Bay area..no hint of 91L coming here..so far huh..
new update at 8am maybe adding a new yellow for 10%
3661. LargoFl
notice there are 4 model tracks bringing it INTO florida..
3662. IKE
Twittered from Joe Bastardi....

7m

Dorian a Non Issues, Gil still a fish storm, gulf place to watch later next week. Big wave busting a move off Africa, but dry air in way
3663. barbamz

Screen shot from camera #3. Source
3664. GatorWX
Ancient Greek Philosophy marked a fundamental turning point in the evolution of humanity and our ideas about our existence in the universe. Over the past 2,500 years their knowledge directly contributed to the evolution of our current science / reason based society. Thus it is unfortunate that many people imagine our post-modern society to now be so 'enlightened' that the Ancient Greek Philosophers have become irrelevant. In fact the opposite is true. As Bertrand Russell observed (History of Western Philosophy), it was the Ancient Greek Philosophers who first discovered and discussed the fundamental Principles of Philosophy, and most significantly, little has been added to their knowledge since. As Einstein wrote;

Somebody who only reads newspapers and at best books of contemporary authors looks to me like an extremely near-sighted person who scorns eyeglasses. He is completely dependent on the prejudices and fashions of his times, since he never gets to see or hear anything else. And what a person thinks on his own without being stimulated by the thoughts and experiences of other people is even in the best case rather paltry and monotonous. There are only a few enlightened people with a lucid mind and style and with good taste within a century. What has been preserved of their work belongs among the most precious possessions of mankind. We owe it to a few writers of antiquity (Plato, Aristotle, etc.) that the people in the Middle Ages could slowly extricate themselves from the superstitions and ignorance that had darkened life for more than half a millennium. Nothing is more needed to overcome the modernist's snobbishness. (Albert Einstein, 1954)
3665. beell
Quoting 3656. tkdaime:
where is coc of invest dorian now


About half-way between Miami and the northern end of Andros Island. Still appears a little bit elongated N/S as you might expect from a surface trough.

Pressures are a little lower (1-2mb) from yesterday evening and surface winds remain light.

Ok, I have exceeded my average daily post count.

TGIF.
Joe Bastardi is a bad weather man!! I never like him at all!!
3667. GatorWX
Good morning everyone! Looks like the MJO is wanting to slide east. Should have some nice sunsets next week Largo, nice plume headed our way. I hope it holds up fairly well, could be a nice contrast if it gets here at the right time.
3668. Grothar
Quoting 3664. GatorWX:
Ancient Greek Philosophy marked a fundamental turning point in the evolution of humanity and our ideas about our existence in the universe. Over the past 2,500 years their knowledge directly contributed to the evolution of our current science / reason based society. Thus it is unfortunate that many people imagine our post-modern society to now be so 'enlightened' that the Ancient Greek Philosophers have become irrelevant. In fact the opposite is true. As Bertrand Russell observed (History of Western Philosophy), it was the Ancient Greek Philosophers who first discovered and discussed the fundamental Principles of Philosophy, and most significantly, little has been added to their knowledge since. As Einstein wrote;

Somebody who only reads newspapers and at best books of contemporary authors looks to me like an extremely near-sighted person who scorns eyeglasses. He is completely dependent on the prejudices and fashions of his times, since he never gets to see or hear anything else. And what a person thinks on his own without being stimulated by the thoughts and experiences of other people is even in the best case rather paltry and monotonous. There are only a few enlightened people with a lucid mind and style and with good taste within a century. What has been preserved of their work belongs among the most precious possessions of mankind. We owe it to a few writers of antiquity (Plato, Aristotle, etc.) that the people in the Middle Ages could slowly extricate themselves from the superstitions and ignorance that had darkened life for more than half a millennium. Nothing is more needed to overcome the modernist's snobbishness. (Albert Einstein, 1954)



Are you calling us stupid? :)
3669. LargoFl
Its gonna be a looooong day huh lol........
3671. GatorWX
Absolutely not Groth. I don't think if we are stupid that we'd be on a blog discussing complex weather systems. I appreciate philosophy and the thought of reason. I think humanity has the ability to progress at a rate beyond that of any other generation. I simply try my best to generate reason. I like to make people think. Thought is what could save this planet. Haha, I love your comments. I've been watching for a long time.
Good morning everyone, TGIF! Looks like 91L is not doing a whole lot which is good. Our standard 30% chance of rain today, so far so good with storms staying offshore!

here we go!!!
3675. MsLoriG
Good Morning all......just lurking as usual....I thought you Florida guys were going to send xD to us in Texas. This morning it looks like you're keeping him all to yourselves.
another shark attack in maui. tiger? its that time of yr. other shark news. the surfers dream getaway island reunion island it is now against the law to surf. when the surf is up a dinner bell rings. sharks.time to eat surfers. in response the french controlled govt plans to cull the sharks populations.
3677. LargoFl
Quoting 3675. MsLoriG:
Good Morning all......just lurking as usual....I thought you Florida guys were going to send xD to us in Texas. This morning it looks like you're keeping him all to yourselves.
good morning..there IS one model who takes it to you folks..we'll see what happens at the end of the day where it is going
3678. LargoFl
if it Does brush up against florida these totals can go higher..
Quoting 3631. OminousCloud:
Its always the same crapola...... A storm approaches SFl , it gets very close, u can actually see it on radar,the western half collapses leaving us here in SFl waving from our shoreline..... Why???? I mean, like 90% of the time. How disappointing,.again!
There are enough real and substantial things in this world over which to gather offense that one should never take uncontrollable things like weather quite so personally. After all, the generally random movement of air and moisture is intended neither to entertain nor anger us. It is what it is...
3680. LargoFl
gee GRO..this sure is getting close to your area....
3681. LargoFl
3682. Grothar
Quoting 3679. Neapolitan:
There are enough real and substantial things in this world over which to gather offense that one should never take uncontrollable things like weather quite so personally. After all, the generally random movement of air and moisture is intended neither to entertain nor anger us. It is what it is...


Who said that?? I don't remember Plato saying anything like that.
Quoting 3680. LargoFl:
gee GRO..this sure is getting close to your area....
Reminds me of Bonnie.
3684. Grothar
Quoting 3680. LargoFl:
gee GRO..this sure is getting close to your area....


It's actually a very nice morning. The sky over the ocean is crystal clear, but there is not one single leaf moving at all.
Quoting 3679. Neapolitan:
There are enough real and substantial things in this world over which to gather offense that one should never take uncontrollable things like weather quite so personally. After all, the generally random movement of air and moisture is intended neither to entertain nor anger us. It is what it is...

But I thought Man Is screwing up the works...increasing the odds of crazy weather Neapolitan!!

Morning gang!

Going to be a gorgeous day from the woods. 87 and sunny. How can you go wrong?? Tell me. Just try. :-]
3686. Grothar
Quoting 3683. allancalderini:
Reminds me of Bonnie.


Hey, I lost two leaves from my tree with Bonnie.
No more rain please. Link

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN IS
LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BECOME ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Quoting 3656. tkdaime:
where is coc of invest dorian now


At 2am it was right off the coast of the northern keys and moving Northwest. Based on that, the center will almost certainly be onshore in the next hour or so. But from there, any good burst of convection could pull the center in a different direction.

On a straight line it would go over Melbourne and then west of okeechobee and emerge near Tampa bay but I doubt that will happen.

Quoting 3656. tkdaime:
where is coc of invest dorian now
Quoting Jwd41190:
Percent increase at 8am EST?
Why? it's a T-wave and nothing more....



Quoting 3679. Neapolitan:
There are enough real and substantial things in this world over which to gather offense that one should never take uncontrollable things like weather quite so personally. After all, the generally random movement of air and moisture is intended neither to entertain nor anger us. It is what it is...

Duh, my question is why? I want to learn. Like I said earlier, many many many times as a storm approaches the S Fl area, a cold front like now even in late July / early August deflects the storm away, as if on cue. Its too coincidental. AGAIN, im just learning..... TIA
3692. hydrus
Quoting 3682. Grothar:


Who said that?? I don't remember Plato saying anything like that.
I remember Plato having a lot to say about everything.


A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN IS
LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT
...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BECOME ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.



Oh no.... how deflating. lol
3694. hydrus
Quoting 3686. Grothar:


Hey, I lost two leaves from my tree with Bonnie.
Hence the high insurance rates.
3695. Mikla
Pretty calm here in West Boca Raton (So. FL). Wind has been under 5 mph since midnight, clear skies...
up to 70% for rain for me today!
Quoting 3664. GatorWX:
Ancient Greek Philosophy marked a fundamental turning point in the evolution of humanity and our ideas about our existence in the universe. Over the past 2,500 years their knowledge directly contributed to the evolution of our current science / reason based society. Thus it is unfortunate that many people imagine our post-modern society to now be so 'enlightened' that the Ancient Greek Philosophers have become irrelevant. In fact the opposite is true. As Bertrand Russell observed (History of Western Philosophy), it was the Ancient Greek Philosophers who first discovered and discussed the fundamental Principles of Philosophy, and most significantly, little has been added to their knowledge since. As Einstein wrote;

Somebody who only reads newspapers and at best books of contemporary authors looks to me like an extremely near-sighted person who scorns eyeglasses. He is completely dependent on the prejudices and fashions of his times, since he never gets to see or hear anything else. And what a person thinks on his own without being stimulated by the thoughts and experiences of other people is even in the best case rather paltry and monotonous. There are only a few enlightened people with a lucid mind and style and with good taste within a century. What has been preserved of their work belongs among the most precious possessions of mankind. We owe it to a few writers of antiquity (Plato, Aristotle, etc.) that the people in the Middle Ages could slowly extricate themselves from the superstitions and ignorance that had darkened life for more than half a millennium. Nothing is more needed to overcome the modernist's snobbishness. (Albert Einstein, 1954)

Does religious thought fit into the grand theme of things as to how we advance as a culture?
3698. RTLSNK
Quoting 3684. Grothar:


It's actually a very nice morning. The sky over the ocean is crystal clear, but there is not one single leaf moving at all.

My kind of mornings. Any birds singing? That's about where it's at for me. :)
almost like its afraid of land..

3704. RTLSNK
Good Morning All, sorry, was a little late this morning.

Lets bring the subject of discussion back to the weather.

Philosophy discussions belong on your own blogs.

Thanks.
but I see a big flare-up as usual in the morning
S FL is now down to 1013mb
Quoting 3699. presslord:


Hey Press, great shot of you. Thanks for not showing those skinny-ass legs though...
Quoting 3697. seer2012:

Does religious thought fit into the grand theme of things as to how we advance as a culture?
Only in that it's historically been the biggest obstacle and impediment to cultural progress mankind has ever invented.

I've been traveling for a week, but am back home now. Got to enjoy some of that odd sweater weather up north. I also had the pleasure of watching a tornadic waterspout form right over me on the shores of Chesapeake Bay; I videoed its entire rain-wrapped lifecycle, and will post it as soon as I apply a little editing...
3709. barbamz

Jebi's landfall.

Quoting 3703. MisterPerfect:
almost like its afraid of land..



Trough is keeping it away and will eventually pick it up and scoot it north. Doesn't mean we won't get rained on though.
0.04" around 9pm last night.


It looks like things changed overnight. The pressure stopped dropping in homestead and FLL and Miami radars so that vortex that was on the surface analysis may have just dissipated. Instead, there appears to be a new center on radar, well offshore and headed straight for Miami!

Here is Freeport Bahamas hourly observations which were offline for 12 hours and now are showing numbers that make more sense!
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/MYGF.html

What a confusing storm.

Check out the radar, high res, from College of DuPage:

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/nexrad.php?type=AMX -N0U-1-24

And if you click on "48" you get 24 additional frames from overnight.
Quoting 3708. Neapolitan:
Only in that it's historically been the biggest obstacle and impediment to cultural progress mankind has ever invented.

I've been traveling for a week, but am back home now. Got to enjoy some of that odd sweater weather up north. I also had the pleasure of watching a tornadic waterspout form right over me on the shores of Chesapeake Bay; I videoed its entire rain-wrapped lifecycle, and will post it as soon as I apply a little editing...


with all due respect...that is a complete load of horse...well...you know...
Is it just me or does there seem to be some sort of center near Grand Bahama?
Why was the mission canceled?
3717. barbamz
Thousands of people evacuate to avoid storm Jebi
August 2, Last update 17:14 | 02/08/2013
VietNamNet Bridge - Thousands of people in the dangerous areas of Quang Ninh and Hai Phong have been requested to evacuate to the safe place. At the same time, storm Jebi is speeding up and has crossed Hainan Island to enter the Gulf of Tonkin at the wind speed of 90 km per hour. ...


Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Why was the mission canceled?


SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT


No point wasting fuel.
3719. GetReal
Good Morning.

"Anyone who has ever contemplated the art of governance has surely come to the conclusion that the fate of empires depends upon the education of their youth"....Aristotle.

Okay Young ones, the 2:00 am had us at 40% and we are now back down to 30% as the convection has not increased, and has waned at bit, between 2 and 8 this morning.

Here is the closest bouy on Grand Bahama Island; pressures were falling yesterday but now rising again...........Looking more like a Florida or just offshore rain event at this point until absorption or dissipation with the approaching trof.

Station SPGF1
NDBC
Location: 26.704N 78.994W
Date: Fri, 02 Aug 2013 12:00:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150°) at 15.0 kt gusting to 17.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.97 in and rising
Air Temperature: 77.2 F
3721. GetReal


I think that the small waves out in front and to the north of this new large wave might help keep the environment wet enough to develop it.




Although most of the models lose it after 48hrs.
3724. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Looks like ex-Dorian is feeling the Gulf Stream and starting it's move,albeit slowly, to the North..
Good riddens.. :)

3725. RTLSNK
Quoting 3704. RTLSNK:
Good Morning All, sorry, was a little late this morning.

Lets bring the subject of discussion back to the weather.

Philosophy discussions belong on your own blogs.

Thanks.


Some of you must have missed my polite advice to bring
the discussion back to the weather.

Philosophy, Politics, Religion, and any other off
topic subjects should be on your own personal blogs.

Please talk about the weather. Thanks.
3726. scott39
Look to the East. The wave at about 10N and between 20W and 25W looks like one to keep an eye on.
Quoting 3714. presslord:


with all due respect...that is a complete load of horse...well...you know...


Agreed. Knowing history is also knowing what motivates people to do what has been done. The entire concept of welfare for the disadvantaged and elderly came from religious teachings thousands of years ago. All of our laws and indeed, our entire legal system is a result of that. The importance is not allowing religion to supersede laws, even though the laws were enacted from religious beliefs.

Uh oh, look at the time! Gotta get moving to post the GM pics by 9am...
3728. Grothar
Quoting 3702. SouthernIllinois:

My kind of mornings. Any birds singing? That's about where it's at for me. :)


Funny now that you mention it, not a single bird.
This has got my VERY EXCITED!!!!! Yah!!!!!!!!!!!

Quoting 3728. Grothar:


Funny now that you mention it, not a single bird.

Well just wait till November when they fly south down by you and all you'll see from me will be posts like "Good morning from the frozen Tundra. Nothing but barren and deserted like conditions here from the woods full of sleepiness and skeletal trees." haha
So do you think the circulation is moving in:

Direction "A" or Direction "B" ?

(Click to animate)

3733. Grothar
3734. pcola57
Staying nicely off the coast so far..

Miami, FL (KAMX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

3735. GetReal


Which way is this mess going to be tugged???

Maybe the arriving dry continental air can finish off this zombie?
3736. scott39
It feels like ex Dorian has been around since June 1st of last season.
Looking at how the winds are positioned, it seems like xDorian is faced with a fork in the road. One way takes in NE out to sea, the other pulls it sharply SW, over Florida and into the Gulf. The former gets it killed by the front, the latter gets it killed by shear, but the latter would also bring rain to an already drenched FL.
Quoting 3685. SouthernIllinois:

But I thought Man Is screwing up the works...increasing the odds of crazy weather Neapolitan!!

Morning gang!

Going to be a gorgeous day from the woods. 87 and sunny. How can you go wrong?? Tell me. Just try. :-]


Cloudy and breezy with some showers bringing much needed rain!
Just making the additional observation, based on Blog participation on here for several years, that one of the "holy grails" for many tropical weather enthusiasts is to try to ferret out, or predict, formation of a system that has not been anticipated by NHC or foreseen by the models......(i.e. the Nostradamus effect).

Everyone gets excited when an unanticipated storm spins up without having previous model support or when the intensity models miss the mark because of a sudden rapid intensification event but these scenarios are rare events given the more advanced weather computing available in the last decade. RI issues aside (which is an acknowledged forecasting-warning nightmare scenario if a system is nearing land fall), most surprise systems usually spin up closer to home as the result of frontal remnants (Humberto just off the coast of Texas comes to mind from a few years ago).

With all of the above being said, it looks like the prospects for development of the ex-Dorian remnants is not likely at this point and we are now back to keeping an eye on the models and the Eastern Atlantic for the next three weeks.

3742. pcola57
Good Morning All..
74 degrees with 97%rh and dew at 73..
Mostly cloudy with light fog with wind at 5mph from the North..

Beach looking cloudy and humid..



I-10 on Mobile Bay..

explosion!
3744. VR46L
Quoting 3730. 53rdWeatherRECON:


I see the SAL has been working up to midlevels since I last looked at that Map .. and that as far as I know is where SAL Damages Waves the most
3745. barbamz

A bit of lower convergence now over Ex-Dorian.
3746. MahFL
Quoting 3716. JrWeathermanFL:
Why was the mission canceled?


Also it's forecast to be swept harmlessly out to sea.
3747. LargoFl
8am has it back down to 30%.................SPECIAL FEATURES...
A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF DORIAN...EXTENDS FROM 28N78W
BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND S FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME UNFAVORABLE OVER THE WEEKEND. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TO PORTIONS OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE
COASTAL WATERS OF SE FLORIDA TODAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NW AND N. AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
THE N-NE AND BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting 3739. 69Viking:


Cloudy and breezy with some showers bringing much needed rain!

I sense sarcasm in your post after you mentioning the much needed rain for your area.... lol
3749. MahFL
Quoting 3742. pcola57:
Good Morning All..
74 degrees with 97%rh and dew at 73..
Mostly cloudy with light fog with wind at 5mph from the North..

Beach looking cloudy and humid..


You can't see humidity, lol.
Quoting 3706. SFLWeatherman:
S FL is now down to 1013mb



Look at the Bahamas. It is 1008mb. Isn't that TS strength?
3753. LargoFl
still has a chance to come inland..stay alert east florida..
No rain in sight for another week, and I get off at 11:30 today
3756. pcola57
Quoting 3749. MahFL:


You can't see humidity, lol.


True that Maha..
I can feel it though.. :)
I dislike the beach in summer..
Winter is the best when you can sit between the dunes and picnic/sun yourself..
Quoting 3749. MahFL:


You can't see humidity, lol.
Fog? Condensation?
Quoting 3749. MahFL:


You can't see humidity, lol.


yes you can...
3760. LargoFl
Quoting 3757. MisterPerfect:
sure looks like he is trying to go thru the straights
3761. LargoFl
South Florida Water Management District
Tropical Conditions Report
8:11AM Friday, August 02, 2013 (gws)

Current Conditions:

LOCAL STORM/HURRICANE WATCHES/WARNINGS: None

Tropical Storm Force or Greater Winds within 48 Hours: Not expected

DISCUSSION:

Clouds and thunderstorms centered off the southeast Florida coast are associated with a low level trough interacting with an upper level low over central Cuba. There is a low chance for development as this trough drifts north northwestward nearly paralleling the east coast of Florida today before moving northeastward away from the peninsula tomorrow. Regardless, areas of heavy rain are likely over eastern sections of the District through tonight

Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected through the weekend.


NEXT SCHEDULED UPDATE: 11am Saturday
Good Morning!

6:53 am (10:53 GMT)

Clouds on the far horizon over the Bahamas from Invest 91L, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian, as viewed from the boat launch area in Lantana, Florida.


Dexter was feeling quite playful this morning - it was hard to keep him still long enough to get a shot in!

So far, it's a bright sunny morning here. We'll just have to wait and see what transpires as the day progresses. If anything interesting happens here, I'll try to get a picture (or video) and post it for everyone.
Leading edge of dust entering Puerto Rico
Quoting 3751. Newswatcher:



Look at the Bahamas. It is 1008mb. Isn't that TS strength?


Not even close dos no have a close low
Quoting 3748. SouthernIllinois:

I sense sarcasm in your post after you mentioning the much needed rain for your area.... lol


LOL, the much needed rain is for your area as we both know my area certainly doesn't need anymore!
Quoting 3760. LargoFl:
sure looks like he is trying to go thru the straights


I don't know...to me its wandering the gulfstream like a dog behind a fence. seems like it just can't get to mainland Florida LOL
Quoting 3765. 69Viking:


LOL, the much needed rain is for your area as we both know my area certainly doesn't need anymore!

Yep! Exactly!
Quoting 3764. Tazmanian:


Not even close dos no have a close low


Good morning Taz!
Might rain in Broward Co. in a few hours though.
3770. yoboi
Quoting 3764. Tazmanian:


Not even close dos no have a close low


taz how has the season been going???? Have you had to take out your bullet from your pocket yet??????
3771. MahFL
Quoting 3753. LargoFl:
still has a chance to come inland..stay alert east florida..


The dangerous trough ?.....don't exaggerate the danger lol.
3772. pcola57
Quoting 3758. Neapolitan:
Fog? Condensation?


I should have said Haze..
Morning Nea.. :)
3773. Murko
We have a light southerly breeze here in Eleuthera, but looks like I'm going to be in for a bumpy ride on my flight to Ft Lauderdale this afternoon.
3774. GetReal
3775. GetReal




It would seem that the center of attention has shifted significantly NNW.
Quoting 3751. Newswatcher:



Look at the Bahamas. It is 1008mb. Isn't that TS strength?


Depends on surrounding pressures, but if it were a system that would typically be a tropical depression like pressure.
3778. GetReal
It would seem that the center of attention is now just off the coast of Port St. Lucie.
Landfall

Just in the last 5 minutes the infrared image from the Colorado site relocated Dorian from off the keys to northeast of Fort Lauderdale.

Guess they think it is going to feed moisture from the band to the south and also from the end of the trough which extends to north Florida.

But no surface winds picking up I guess...

WHEN THEY FORECAST THE SAL 5 DAYS IN ADVANCE THAT's NEVER A BUST FORECAST!
Hey it up now lol
3783. ncstorm
Good Morning Folks..another cloudy day here in eastern NC..but Im not complaining..just great to have woken and able to see family and friends once again..

Quoting 3782. SFLWeatherman:
Hey it up now lol


DORIAN needs to be forgotten now. Next!
Quoting 3778. GetReal:
It would seem that the center of attention is now just off the coast of Port St. Lucie.


The radar RitaEvac posted shows it pretty well.
3786. GetReal
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)


xDorian about to be absorbed by the frontal trough? Disappear finally?




This has been some system to follow. Such is the tropics! ;) TGIF! Have a great day, all.
For WPB from Steve Weagle
The remnants of Dorian are right off the coast and moving inland. Potential for heavy rain beginning this afternoon. Several inches possible.
3789. VR46L
Quoting 3784. CaribBoy:


DORIAN need to be forgotten now. Next!


It might be a while to the next one....
Quoting 3789. VR46L:


It might be a while to the next one....


Yes I saw nothing on the GFS... first half of august could be boring/ a BUST!
3791. ncstorm
Yesterday's CFS long range run showed nothing but recurvatures..might be another Bermuda year..
3793. VR46L
Quoting 3790. CaribBoy:


Yes I saw nothing on the GFS... first half of august could be boring/ a BUST!


It sure is looking like being Quiet at the moment...
I'm a happy girl.

The accumulated precip out to 84 hours for the 18Z, 00Z & 06Z NAM are all looking spectacular for Southern Illinois. Yes...what you are seeing is the NAM is pretty confident we will get something out of this next system. Yay!!!
91L should move north until it's parallel to Cape Canaveral, then we should see the eastern element to the track occur from frontal interaction.
3796. GetReal
Weather stations along central Florida Atl coast are reporting light W and NW winds, but high barometer readings 1014mb and above.
3797. VR46L
Quoting 3791. ncstorm:
Yesterday's CFS long range run showed nothing but recurvatures..might be another Bermuda year..


NC , Now now ... you know the CFS is to be viewed like a fantasy film .... at the moment alot of te shorter term models need to be veiwed the same way..
Quoting 3791. ncstorm:
Yesterday's CFS long range run showed nothing but recurvatures..might be another Bermuda year..


If Bermuda wants the SAL we would be delighted to send it north for them too XD
Quoting 3775. GetReal:




It would seem that the center of attention has shifted significantly NNW.

t easy to see it on the radar, even for a dummy like me!
Quoting 3791. ncstorm:
Yesterday's CFS long range run showed nothing but recurvatures..might be another Bermuda year..

I doubt that almost every storm that was to come off Africa was to recurve according to CFS and they did developed storms like it thought it was CMC
Anyway if CFS had its way we would probably have been up to our 5 or 6 storm already All which would have recurved
Quoting 3791. ncstorm:
Yesterday's CFS long range run showed nothing but recurvatures..might be another Bermuda year..

Would like nothing better than a 2010 season with the steering patterns! Of course with less storms though.

Earl here we come BABY!!
Quoting 3794. SouthernIllinois:
I'm a happy girl.

The accumulated precip out to 84 hours for the 18Z, 00Z & 06Z NAM are all looking spectacular for Southern Illinois. Yes...what you are seeing is the NAM is pretty confident we will get something out of this next system. Yay!!!


Another 0.35"?
Earl was a good one to track. No harm, no foul, no death or destruction for the CONUS. Yes, PR had it rough. But storms like that that stay offshore from the U.S. mainlands are the ones I LIKE. Off course the destruction-casters would disagree. :/
Quoting 3802. RitaEvac:


Another 0.35"?

Hush! :)
For me
Wind Speed NW at 5 mph
Ladies and Gentlemen of TX....The Dog days of summer....are fully entrenched for ya, good luck, and God speed.
3808. ncstorm
Quoting 3797. VR46L:


NC , Now now ... you know the CFS is to be viewed like a fantasy film .... at the moment alot of te shorter term models need to be veiwed the same way..


not so much for storm development but what pattern its showing..August is already predicting to have some strong troughs come down as far as the midatlantic states..I could see what its saying..If anything should happen for the US Conus, it will be the GOM and home grown mischief..

Quoting 3806. SFLWeatherman:
For me Wind Speed NW at 5 mph

Sounds like a full blown TS South Florida Weatherman. :P Good morning to you!
3810. SLU
Quoting 3791. ncstorm:
Yesterday's CFS long range run showed nothing but recurvatures..might be another Bermuda year..


The CFS should never be used to determine storm tracks. It is a climate model and can only be used to guess the climatic trends that may occur.

Quoting 3790. CaribBoy:


Yes I saw nothing on the GFS... first half of august could be boring/ a BUST!


Good morning!
But that's a good thing. Isn't it?
3812. ncstorm
Quoting 3810. SLU:


The CFS should never be used to determine storm tracks. It is a climate model and can only be used to guess the climatic trends that may occur.


Please see my second post to the CFS..
3814. ncstorm
Quoting 3800. wunderkidcayman:

I doubt that almost every storm that was to come off Africa was to recurve according to CFS and they did developed storms like it thought it was CMC
Anyway if CFS had its way we would probably have been up to our 5 or 6 storm already All which would have recurved


If the pattern stays..storms just may..its a possibility you have to take in account..
3815. GetReal

That's All Folks!!! Nothing to come out of this zombie....
There are reports of a brief EF-2 tornado in the Fort Caroline area of Jacksonville from yesterday's storm. Craig also recorded 0.95" of rain in a 17 minute period as well. 2.56" total.
How come the WU graphic of Invest 91 shows "7PM Wed Dec 31 1969" on the time/date?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Sprinkled in Melbourne from ex-Dorian. Winds are light & from the north here, gusting to 5mph in the last hour.

Check out the surface map on this page

Link
3821. SLU
Breaking news:

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANEACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 – AUGUST 15, 2013

We expect that the next two weeks will
be characterized by below-average amounts
(<70%) of activity relative to climatology.
(as of 2 August 2013)
Quoting 3749. MahFL:


You can't see humidity, lol.



Actually you can. Fog is the obvious humidity that is visible, but at lower RH is is visible as haze.
3823. MahFL
Quoting 3822. DaytonaBill:



Actually you can. Fog is the obvious humidity that is visible, but at lower RH is is visible as haze.


Humidity is the amount of water vapor in the air. Water vapor is the gas phase of water and is invisible.

Fog is a form of precipitation, haze is dust particles and other pollutants in the atmosphere.
We're about to get pounded here in West Palm Beach.
3825. GatorWX
It has that yeah, I'm still here look.

Have there ever been cases where a tropical wave or depression or storm has split into two storms? In which one or the other later became a cane? ex-Dorian appears now and has appeared a few times in the last 10 days to have two different COCs. Might explain why the NHC can't pinpoint the COC.