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Maria pulling away from the Antillies; Ex-Katia pounding the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:04 PM GMT on September 12, 2011

Tropical Storm Maria continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. The center of circulation lies fully exposed to view this morning, with satellite loops showing that all of Maria's heavy thunderstorms lie to the east of Maria's center. Spiral bands from Maria are bringing heavy rains to the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, as seen on long-range radar out of Puerto Rico and Martinique radar. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts of three inches have occurred in the Virgin Islands; 0.94" has fallen in St. Thomas, which experienced a wind gust of 39 mph at 9:14 am local time.

Maria's center has been tracking more to the west than the forecast has been calling for, but since the center is so far from the heaviest thunderstorms, I wouldn't be surprised to see the center reform more to the east or east-northeast later today. The models are in unanimous agreement that Maria should resume a more northwesterly motion later today, and turn to the north by Tuesday. The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to slowly weaken over the next few days, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength by Wednesday. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. On Wednesday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. If Maria does manage to organize into a hurricane, Bermuda could see an 8-hour period of sustained winds of 35 - 40 mph beginning near 2 pm local time on Wednesday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday morning. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and wind damage from high winds of 50 - 60 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria.

Extratropical Storm Katia pounding Britain
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday, and made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic, and is now lashing the northern British Isles with high winds and heavy rain. At 1 pm local time, the center of ex-Katia was over northern Scotland, and Malin Head, Ireland on the north coast of Ireland, was experiencing sustained winds of 49 mph. Winds in western Scotland were also high, with Aonach Mor recording sustained winds of 51 mph at 12:50 pm local time. The UK Met Office is warning that wind gusts up to 80 mph can be expected in Scotland today, as well as flooding rains of 2 - 4 inches. Ex-Katia's strong winds will likely cause significant tree damage and power failures across Northern Ireland and Scotland today.


Figure 2. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

Britain's hurricane history
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In September 2006, two major hurricanes named Gordon and Helene transitioned to strong extratropical storms that hit the British Isles. Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. The most recent one was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.


Figure 3. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a four ft (1.20 m) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A United States oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a strong tropical disturbance 6 - 7 days from now.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Grothar:


I don't think they want you to, just in case they might be wrong.


You are definitely on form tonight, sir.
502. JLPR2
So we're almost at 70 in terms of ACE, but have only seen 2 hurricanes.

But here is a little interesting fact: 2007 featured two category 5 hurricanes (Dean and Felix) with a total of 15/6/2 and its ACE only reached 72.21.

I would say we are above normal at the moment.
I posted this earlier but find it interesting.

Quoting twincomanche:
I posted this earlier but find it interesting.


I'm in orange. Me no likey.
Big cold front.

Quoting JLPR2:
So we're almost at 70 in terms of ACE, but have only seen 2 hurricanes.

But here is a little interesting fact: 2007 featured two category 5 hurricanes (Dean and Felix) with a total of 15/6/2 and its ACE only reached 72.21.

I would say we are above normal at the moment.

Dean and Felix don't compare to Marco.
508. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Dean and Felix don't compare to Marco.


So cute! LOL!
I think the ACE total seems so low because we've already had so many stgrms. I wonder what the average ACE per storm is... 70/13? doesn't seem like much...
Quoting Bielle:


You are definitely on form tonight, sir.


Sad thing is, it doesn't last long.
511. txjac
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm in orange. Me no likey.


I'm in orange too ...me likey!
Quoting Grothar:
Big cold front.

And when's this supposed to happen?

Quoting JLPR2:


So cute! LOL!

The blog seemed tired, had to do something! XD
514. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
And when's this supposed to happen?



I think I saw Saturday posted earlier today
So do you dudes think that Maria will bring any nasty weather here to Bermuda??
516. txjac
Quoting BDADUDE:
So do you dudes think that Maria will bring any nasty weather here to Bermuda??


What about the dudetettes?
Quoting Grothar:
I'm jealous. I can't get it to do that however I am just a lowly peasant on here. Sigh.
Quoting txjac:


What about the dudetettes?
Dudettes feel free to respond.
Quoting txjac:


What about the dudetettes?


Cut their last record for Motown and retired.
Quoting txjac:


What about the dudetettes?
Exactly! I believe BDADUDE and Caicosretiredsailor are actually one in the same!
Quoting twincomanche:
And when's this supposed to happen?



Starting Wednesday. Possible first frosts in some places.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

3 years ago.


I do remember that... It was a pretty rough night. I was in a coffee shop with a friend of mine, she was from Baytown and was freaking out about Ike. The following afternoon Ike had come ashore and it was raining up where we were, so we got lunch while trying not to get knocked over by the winds which were 20-30mph +40 gusts.

One strange thing I remember from that storm was watching the Transtar traffic cameras go out, one by one by one from south to north.
Quoting kipperedherring:
Exactly! I believe BDADUDE and Caicosretiredsailor are actually one in the same!
That cut me to the bone dude.
525. txjac
Quoting BDADUDE:
Dudettes feel free to respond.


I know nothing however I can say I hope that Maria doesnt impact Bermuda. You guys are out there like in the middle of no where all by yourselves
Quoting twincomanche:
I'm jealous. I can't get it to do that however I am just a lowly peasant on here. Sigh.



You have to save the properties to a host site like this one upload it then post it.

Link
527. txjac
Quoting Grothar:


Starting Wednesday. Possible first frosts in some places.


Wow, thats amazing ...very strange weather this year.
Quoting Grothar:
Big cold front.



Grother, I know you don't really know me and have probably only seen a few of my posts over several years. I just wanted to say that I am glad to see you back and I assume that you are feeling better. Good to see you again on a regular basis. Tom
Quoting txjac:


I know nothing however I can say I hope that Maria doesnt impact Bermuda. You guys are out there like in the middle of no where all by yourselves
Dont worry about us. No wooden framed houses here.
Maria just ain't in a hurry to go anywhere ATM.
Quoting Grothar:


Starting Wednesday. Possible first frosts in some places.



I mean areas.
Quoting Grothar:



You have to save the properties to a host site like this one upload it then post it.

Link
Copy.
533. JLPR2
It sort of looks like Maria developed a Mid-level circulation in her convection.
That could be a sign of things to come. (early frosts) I wonder if Dade County will get snow flurries/frosts again this year.

Kind of interesting, to say the least last year. Lost a lot of plants too...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 23N52W TO 11N56W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWED BROAD CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

Interesting...should be monitored?
Quoting MelbourneTom:


Grother, I know you don't really know me and have probably only seen a few of my posts over several years. I just wanted to say that I am glad to see you back and I assume that you are feeling better. Good to see you again on a regular basis. Tom


Yes, I have seen your posts, and thanks. I just haven't figured out why these are our "Golden Years" yet.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I have seen your posts, and thanks. I just haven't figured out why these are our "Golden Years" yet.
Watch 'On Golden Pond'. If it ain't like that call Hollywood.
538. txjac
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I have seen your posts, and thanks. I just haven't figured out why these are our "Golden Years" yet.


You're "golden" to us groth ...things were just not the same when you were down and out for thos couple of days ..you're a treasure here
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I have seen your posts, and thanks. I just haven't figured out why these are our "Golden Years" yet.
On this site, we are all the same age dude!! Except maybe that taz dude. :)
Quoting Dakster:
That could be a sign of things to come. (early frosts) I wonder if Dade County will get snow flurries/frosts again this year.

Kind of interesting, to say the least last year. Lost a lot of plants too...


We did have ice pellets and snow flurries in Broward last winter. Only other time I saw that was in 1977. That whole year was cold.
Quoting JLPR2:
It sort of looks like Maria developed a Mid-level circulation in her convection.


Can Maria develop a new surface low?
Quoting stormpetrol:
Maria just ain't in a hurry to go anywhere ATM.


Maria was going west today. Now it looks like it is going south.
Quoting JLPR2:
It sort of looks like Maria developed a Mid-level circulation in her convection.


Is Maria going south? It looks like it is going south.
I remember 1977, even though I was only 5...

The last two years down here have been cold, as far as South Florida winters are concerned.

One good thing is that it has been the only thing so far that has been able to put the large iguana and snake population under control!
Quoting BDADUDE:
On this site, we are all the same age dude!! Except maybe that taz dude. :)


Thanks, Dude. I feel young when I am on the blog. I get to be silly and meet nice people.
546. txjac
Quoting Grothar:


We did have ice pellets and snow flurries in Broward last winter. Only other time I saw that was in 1977. That whole year was cold.


I remember 1977 ...was in Ohio at that time ...horrid blizzard that year (might have been 78). We were so snowed in ..snow up the the top of the telephone wires ...scary times
Quoting Grothar:


Starting Wednesday. Possible first frosts in some places.
what areas are you referring to?
Quoting KittieCane:


Can Maria develop a new surface low?


Sure... I think even Dr. Masters mentioned that in his blog.

Maria is so disorganized that a new surface low wouldn't surprise me.

Granted, I am not as talented a forecaster as some other are on here...
Quoting Dakster:
I remember 1977, even though I was only 5...

The last two years down here have been cold, as far as South Florida winters are concerned.

One good thing is that it has been the only thing so far that has been able to put the large iguana and snake population under control!
That's not possible. AGW you know.
guys the gulf is cooling off. look on the wunderground map. any reason why its cooling off?
551. JLPR2
Quoting KittieCane:


Can Maria develop a new surface low?


Well if it spits out the current one, it could. But there are no indications of that happening at the moment.

Quoting EasyRiderX:


Is Maria going south? It looks like it is going south.


That's the convection dancing around.
Quoting Dakster:
I remember 1977, even though I was only 5...

The last two years down here have been cold, as far as South Florida winters are concerned.

One good thing is that it has been the only thing so far that has been able to put the large iguana and snake population under control!


We keep our outdoor ground lights on for the little geckos. The actually hover around them when it is cold. It is like they have mini resorts to go to when it is cold. Do you have the iguana problem there like we do up here? Thousands of them now.
Quoting nymore:
what areas are you referring to?


North Dakota.
AGW - should be called climate change...

But, yes, I get your point. When I was scraping ice off the windshield to get to work last year a big article on AGW hit... Yes, I thought it was VERY ironic.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I have seen your posts, and thanks. I just haven't figured out why these are our "Golden Years" yet.


And how does this correlate to silence being golden? What are they trying to tell us?
Quoting Grothar:


North Dakota.
I know Minnesota has already had frost and is expecting a hard freeze this week
I am really having a hard time finding the COC of Maria. It was exposed during the day and did not move most of the day at all. From the SW and the AVN I think it is at about 21N 67.5W. What are your estimates?
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I have seen your posts, and thanks. I just haven't figured out why these are our "Golden Years" yet.


It may have something to do with the amount of gold you need to get through them.
Quoting txjac:


I remember 1977 ...was in Ohio at that time ...horrid blizzard that year (might have been 78). We were so snowed in ..snow up the the top of the telephone wires ...scary times


It was a bad two years. Here is an image of the Blizzard of 78



Quoting kipperedherring:
Exactly! I believe BDADUDE and Caicosretiredsailor are actually one in the same!
Not really... hundreds of miles of open waters between these 2 guys.....
561. JLPR2
Getting nasty in the extreme SE and E side of the big Island.


Yet I'm dry, so far only two or three drops.

Here is a link to a local newspaper talking about the flooding occurring in Ceiba, PR.

Of course it is in Spanish.
Quoting Grothar:


We keep our outdoor ground lights on for the little geckos. The actually hover around them when it is cold. It is like they have mini resorts to go to when it is cold. Do you have the iguana problem there like we do up here? Thousands of them now.


In some places yes. When it gets cold it literally rains lizards.

Is griffin road still covered with thousands of lizards? I remember driving down griffin by the canals and was amazed that I could barely see the sidewalk there were so many of them.
Quoting Dakster:
AGW - should be called climate change...

But, yes, I get your point. When I was scraping ice off the windshield to get to work last year a big article on AGW hit... Yes, I thought it was VERY ironic.
Being a math kind of person I have always been fascinated about how you measure the temperature of a whole Country much less the whole world. I remember reading some I think Swedish physicist saying trying to measure the Earth's temperature was like adding up all the phone numbers in the NY phone book, dividing by the number of numbers, calling that number and be talking to everyone at one time.
Quoting PcolaDan:


And how does this correlate to silence being golden? What are they trying to tell us?


What are you trying to say, Dan??? :)
Quoting Grothar:



I mean areas.


Perhaps places, too. I absolutely refuse to turn on the heat until after Oct. 15. Gonna be a couple three dog nights later this week..........
566. txjac
Quoting defdogz:


Perhaps places, too. I absolutely refuse to turn on the heat until after Oct. 15. Gonna be a couple three dog nights later this week..........


Just snuggle up to that one in your avatar and you'll be just fine! My doggie puts off quite a bit of heat
Quoting Grothar:


What are you trying to say, Dan??? :)


hey gro how are you feeling
Quoting Dakster:


In some places yes. When it gets cold it literally rains lizards.

Is griffin road still covered with thousands of lizards? I remember driving down griffin by the canals and was amazed that I could barely see the sidewalk there were so many of them.


There are so many there, we have given them their own zip code.
Quoting twincomanche:
Being a math kind of person I have always been fascinated about how you measure the temperature of a whole Country much less the whole world. I remember reading some I think Swedish physicist saying trying to measure the Earth's temperature was like adding up all the phone numbers in the NY phone book, dividing by the number of numbers, calling that number and be talking to everyone at one time.


I always wondered about that math. I just assumed that people with a whole lot more smarts than me figured out a way to do it.

Quoting defdogz:


Perhaps places, too. I absolutely refuse to turn on the heat until after Oct. 15. Gonna be a couple three dog nights later this week..........
No heaters in my house.
Quoting weatherh98:


hey gro how are you feeling


As they say in New York, "Don't ask!" LOL
Quoting Grothar:


There are so many there, we have given them their own zip code.
Wow. And I thought that was because of the airport....
Quoting txjac:


Just snoggle up to that one in your avatar and you'll be just fine! My doggie puts off quite a bit of heat


That particular fellow is too big and too much of a blanket hog to sleep in bed except when/if the power fails during the winter. The littler ones (and a feline nightcap) will do the trick.
BTW, anybody expecting anything from our Twave getting set to enter the GOM before it goes into the EPac?

It was looking pretty PHAT earlier this evening...
Quoting Dakster:


I always wondered about that math. I just assumed that people with a whole lot more smarts than me figured out a way to do it.

To quote Mark Twain: "What's dangerous about a man isn't what he doesn't know, it's what he thinks he knows that he doesn't."
Quoting BDADUDE:
No heaters in my house.

Two furnaces and a wood stove here -the Great White North.
Quoting JLPR2:
Getting nasty in the extreme SE and E side of the big Island.


Yet I'm dry, so far only two or three drops.

Here is a link to a local newspaper talking about the flooding occurring in Ceiba, PR.

Of course it is in Spanish.



That is terrible. I didn't know it was that bad.
578. txjac
Quoting defdogz:


That particular fellow is too big and too much of a blanket hog to sleep in bed except when/if the power fails during the winter. The littler ones (and a feline nightcap) will do the trick.


Mine is about 73 pounds and sleeps on me everynight. What kind of dog is that ...looks like a sweety.
Just fed mine some leftover prime rib from this weekend ...made a big one as I thought my nephews where coming ...so she had about two pounds worth! Shes a big baby
579. txjac
Quoting Grothar:



That is terrible. I didn't know it was that bad.


JL ..what part of the island are you at?
Quoting Grothar:


What are you trying to say, Dan??? :)


Not me, it's "they". You know, the "they" that everyone quotes when they (not "they") don't know who really said something. "They" are trying to keep us grey heads quiet. It's a conspiracy propagated through music. ;)
581. JLPR2
Quoting txjac:


JL ..what part of the island are you at?


NE, a few minutes from San Juan.
Quoting Grothar:


It was a bad two years. Here is an image of the Blizzard of 78





It must have felt like two years ago to you too. xD god i'm terrible.
583. txjac
Quoting JLPR2:


NE, a few minutes from San Juan.


So that rain should be hitting you soon? How much are others getting there?
Quoting defdogz:


Perhaps places, too. I absolutely refuse to turn on the heat until after Oct. 15. Gonna be a couple three dog nights later this week..........


One is such a lonely number.
Quoting ElConando:


It must have felt like two years ago to you too. xD god i'm terrible.


And to think, I was going to leave you in my will.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Not me, it's "they". You know, the "they" that everyone quotes when they (not "they") don't know who really said something. "They" are trying to keep us grey heads quiet. It's a conspiracy propagated through music. ;)
And the AARP that thinks we are old. In the words of the saintly Rush Limbaugh we are just seasoned citizens.
Quoting txjac:


Mine is about 73 pounds and sleeps on me everynight. What kind of dog is that ...looks like a sweety.
Just fed mine some leftover prime rib from this weekend ...made a big one as I thought my nephews where coming ...so she had about two pounds worth! Shes a big baby


Wow. I would sit up and roll over for two pounds of prime rib! (Looks at his leftover pizza with disdain.)
Quoting PcolaDan:


One is such a lonely number.


It's the lonliest number you'll every do.
589. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
And the AARP that thinks we are old. In the words of the saintly Rush Limbaugh we are just seasoned citizens.


Not that I believe he's a saint ...but I like that quote!
The good news is that this week's Midwestern cold spell will be very short-lived, and not one of those long-lingering events that are seen so often in late winter and early spring. For instance, Garden City, Kansas--which reached 97 today--will see a high only in the mid-50s on Thursday, but it will be around 90 again on Saturday. And Minneapolis, which will drop into the low 40s Wednesday and Thursday nights, will rebound to around 80 by Monday. Having said that, yes, with the exception of a few last gasps (some areas in Texas will see temperatures from 105-110 tomorrow), this insanely long, hot, and drought-filled summer appears to be finally sliding into the record books. And good riddance...
591. txjac
Quoting floodzonenc:


Wow. I would sit up and roll over for two pounds of prime rib! (Looks at his leftover pizza with disdain.)


Wish that you would have been here as I rather a human would have had it! I dont really eat red meat so there wasnt anyone else around ...and I wouldnt have made you do any tricks!
592. JLPR2
Quoting txjac:


So that rain should be hitting you soon? How much are others getting there?


Doesn't seem like it will reach me. So far the north and west have been pretty dry, the south has some decent totals 2-6inches, 8+ in some isolated areas.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The good news is that this week's Midwestern cold spell will be very short-lived, and not one of those long-lingering events that are seen so often in late winter and early spring. For instance, Garden City, Kansas--which reached 97 today--will see a high only in the mid-50s on Thursday, but it will be around 90 again on Saturday. And Minneapolis, which will drop into the low 40s Wednesday and Thursday nights, will rebound to around 80 by Monday. Having said that, yes, with the exception of a few last gasps (some areas in Texas will see temperatures from 105-110 tomorrow), this insanely long, hot, and drought-filled summer appears to be finally sliding into the record books. And good riddance...
Boy that sure seems like a formula for some seriously violent weather. Exciting times coming I think.
Quoting txjac:


Not that I believe he's a saint ...but I like that quote!
You can skip over that part.LOL.
595. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:



That is terrible. I didn't know it was that bad.


Yes, I just realized it was getting bad over there, before 2pm they were dry. That's one persistent band of thunderstorms in the area.
Quoting Grothar:


It's the lonliest number you'll every do.


You are tempting me so much tonight. Golden Years, etc.
Quoting txjac:


Mine is about 73 pounds and sleeps on me everynight. What kind of dog is that ...looks like a sweety.
Just fed mine some leftover prime rib from this weekend ...made a big one as I thought my nephews where coming ...so she had about two pounds worth! Shes a big baby


He's a Dogo Argentino, ~105 pounds. He's from working hog dog stock but will never hunt because he's deaf. He is a wonderful dog - sweet-natured, even-tempered, smart, willing to please. I am grateful his breeder placed him with me instead of killing him, as most Dogo breeders do when they have deaf pups.
Quoting twincomanche:
And the AARP that thinks we are old. In the words of the saintly Rush Limbaugh we are just seasoned citizens.


In my case, it's all that extra garlic I eat. :|
599. txjac
Quoting defdogz:


He's a Dogo Argentino, ~105 pounds. He's from working hog dog stock but will never hunt because he's deaf. He is a wonderful dog - sweet-natured, even-tempered, smart, willing to please. I am grateful his breeder placed him with me instead of killing him, as most Dogo breeders do when they have deaf pups.



Aww ...so glad you got him! He's a lucky dog. All of my animals are rescues and couldnt imagine my life without them
Quoting PcolaDan:


In my case, it's all that extra garlic I eat. :|
There is no such thing as extra garlic. LOL.
Maria loves night time, hates day time.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Maria loves night time, hates day time.

Shes week, Dmin and Dmax still affect her.
Evening everyone! Maria just wants to hang out. If she does not starting moving the trough door might close very fast. I don't think that will happen but, its just bad to see a system in that location just hanging out!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Maria loves night time, hates day time.

Vampire storm? I thought that was just mythology.
The I Predict Series..........

I predict such a cold and bitter winter that in future years they will say "that was the start of the modern ice age". The cause will be found to be a fundamental drop in fusion in the Sun's interior.

Stay tuned for more exciting weather predictions from I PREDICT. (A Todd Ramsey/Frank Zapper production)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


You are tempting me so much tonight. Golden Years, etc.


Figured you were lurking somewhere. We threw enough lines out there for you.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Maria loves night time, hates day time.

Talk about not going anywhere fast. I think she's going to be with us until the end of the season. (grin)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening everyone! Maria just wants to hang out. If she does not starting moving the trough door might close very fast. I don't think that will happen but, its just bad to see a system in that location just hanging out!


Tornicane? Or Hurrnado?

Edit: LOL...Without clicking on the image, your avatar looks like it is flashing back and forth between a hurricane and tornado.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Vampire storm? I thought that was just mythology.
Good for me though.
Quoting twincomanche:
Talk about not going anywhere fast. I think she's going to be with us until the end of the season. (grin)


She making progress, lol...Last night, she was a whole two degrees farther east. XD
Nothing obvious after Maria, wonder if we will have the first period without any tropical systems after Maria leaves? Levi seems to think something is going to pop up in the Caribbean.
Quoting JLPR2:


Yes, I just realized it was getting bad over there, before 2pm they were dry. That's one persistent band of thunderstorms in the area.


Looking at the images, they are going to be around awhile. Looks like the DR is getting a little pounding, too.
Look at the pathetic ol'95E. don't got but ONE big thunderstorm. LOL
Quoting twincomanche:
There is no such thing as extra garlic. LOL.

True.
There is still a couple of interesting areas of convection over Africa. Don't think Cape Verde season is over yet.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Look at the pathetic ol'95E. don't got but ONE big thunderstorm. LOL


lol..I'm guessing its in the bottom right corner?

And my last musical reference as I head to bed.
Tonight is the Harvest Moon.

With this, I bid you adieu.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Keep a eye on that feature as soon as it gets over water into the Bay of Campeche.
620. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
Keep a eye on that feature as soon as it gets over water into the Bay of Campeche.


I was wondering about that area myself ...hopefully it doesnt just sit there for days, spinning around and then goes in to Mexico
Quoting PcolaDan:
And my last musical reference as I head to bed.
Tonight is the Harvest Moon.

With this, I bid you adieu.



I had the biggest crush on her when I was a kid.
hi all



took back the Acer and got me a nic Toshiba


*Hoping Maria is a Category 5 in the morning, headed between Bermuda and the USA, and then out to sea.*
Quoting txjac:


I was wondering about that area myself ...hopefully it doesnt just sit there for days, spinning around and then goes in to Mexico
I think she makes up and heads North.
and vary happy with it
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
*Hoping Maria is a Category 5 in the morning, headed between Bermuda and the USA, and then out to sea.*



can we make it a cat 6
627. txjac
Quoting Tazmanian:
and vary happy with it
t

Why the trade in? Thought that you were happy with your new purchase?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
*Hoping Maria is a Category 5 in the morning, headed between Bermuda and the USA, and then out to sea.*
Hope is not a course of action lad.
629. JLPR2
Maria looks like a strong TS or even a minimal cat1 in infrared imagery, but we all know the truth. XD
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi all



took back the Acer and got me a nic Toshiba


Good. The acers are junk.
631. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
I think she makes up and heads North.


That would be a nice change, even it came up more north and even in to SW Texas

Not versed enough in troughs and such to even think about what could make it travel north
Quoting BDADUDE:
Good. The acers are junk.
So harsh.
Quoting txjac:
t

Why the trade in? Thought that you were happy with your new purchase?



it was being vary buging when i un hock the power cord and i did not even like the key board that came with it this one has a nic big one and i can type with out missing up
Quoting JLPR2:
Maria looks like a strong TS or even a minimal cat1 in infrared imagery, but we all know the truth. XD


hes right the acers are junk
Quoting Tazmanian:



it was being vary buging when i un hock the power cord and i did not even like the key board that came with it this one has a nic big one and i can type with out missing up
I love you man.
637. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
hes right the acers are junk


Hey! I have a two year old Acer Netbook and it works wonderfully.
638. txjac
Quoting Tazmanian:



it was being vary buging when i un hock the power cord and i did not even like the key board that came with it this one has a nic big one and i can type with out missing up


As long as you are happy its all good
639. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




Looks pretty, if only the LLC were below the convection.
Quoting Grothar:


I had the biggest crush on her when I was a kid.
Hi old guy welcome back. Haven't been on at same time to give you a proper shout out.
Quoting Tazmanian:
hes right the acers are junk
I have to say I have a Acer and have zero complaints. I have had it for six months.
Quoting JLPR2:


Hey! I have a two year old Acer Netbook and it works wonderfully.
Maybe in theory.
643. JLPR2
Maria seems to be doing a Chris(2006).

Convection seems to be dropping south while the LLC moves to the NW, it's now exposed to the NW of the edge of the convection.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Maybe in theory.
Oh oh, I see another huge argument about nothing in our future.
The I Predict Series..........

I predict that Maria will not become a hurricane.

I also predict that the tropical storm to hurricane ratio will be the most lopsided ever and Dr Grey will admit that he just don't know what they are doing without giving us a bunch of excuses.

Stay tuned for more exciting weather predictions from I PREDICT. (A Todd Ramsey/Frank Zapper production)
my window index is 5.9
hurricane season is overe have a nic vacation am paying for evere one
648. txjac
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe have a nic vacation am paying for evere one


Nice ...where are we going?
Quoting txjac:


Nice ...where are we going?




the Western Caribbean LOL





i hop you guys no am this haveing a little fun lol
Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening everyone! Maria just wants to hang out. If she does not starting moving the trough door might close very fast. I don't think that will happen but, its just bad to see a system in that location just hanging out!


She is driving us Crazy thanks God is out to SEA can you imagine having her visit us here in PR for these 3 days!
Hello all. Maria putting on a nice burst, but her organization is probably worse.
Quoting twincomanche:
Oh oh, I see another huge argument about nothing in our future.
Which is finer the camel's hair or the pig's? What is the ideal angle for the final stropping of the razor used to split each?
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi all



took back the Acer and got me a nic Toshiba




whaaa happen?
655. txjac
Seems like everyone is in a strange mood this evening ...frank,taz, shen ...loving it
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
*Hoping Maria is a Category 5 in the morning, headed between Bermuda and the USA, and then out to sea.*


Dream ,Dream ,Dream i going out in my boat to shout at Her!!!
Quoting Tazmanian:




the Western Caribbean LOL





i hop you guys no am this haveing a little fun lol
Taz...we are waiting for you here in Cayman then,come on down!
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Which is finer the camel's hair or the pig's? What is the ideal angle for the final stropping of the razor used to split each?
I know none of these things and admit it.
659. txjac
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Which is finer the camel's hair or the pig's? What is the ideal angle for the final stropping of the razor used to split each?


I would have to go with the pig's being finer and the angle would be 38 degrees
Quoting FrankZapper:
The I Predict Series..........

I predict that Taz will NOT pay for any vacations.

But I do concur that the season is over as a bitter winter descends upon us.

Stay tuned for more exciting weather predictions from I PREDICT. (A Todd Ramsey/Frank Zapper production)
Bitter winter? 105 here today and our Winter forecast in Texas is above average for temps?
I never heard of pig hair. Not a direction I prefer my thoughts to go.
Quoting txjac:


I would have to go with the pig's being finer and the angle would be 38 degrees
I rest my case on my earlier post (See Mark Twain quote). Good night all.
663. txjac
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Bitter winter? 105 here today and our Winter forecast in Texas is above average for temps?


Maybe Frank can "predict" something better for us boho?
Quoting JNCali:


whaaa happen?



i did not like the Acer and when i un plug it it was being a a little bug and it showed the blue srceen of death i i spell that right and i did not like the key board too small
Quoting superpete:
Taz...we are waiting for you here in Cayman then,come on down!



some day i will lol
666. txjac
Quoting txjac:


Maybe Frank can "predict" something better for us boho?


Nite night twin
Quoting JNCali:


whaaa happen?
I have an Asus and my wife has a Toshiba.
The I Predict Series..........

I predict that the " I Predict" series may not last for many more episodes, as there does not seem to be any interest in it.

I also predict that The Discovery Channel will pick it up if it is dropped here.

Stay tuned for more exciting weather predictions from I PREDICT. (A Todd Ramsey/Frank Zapper production)
Quoting Tazmanian:



i did not like the Acer and when i un plug it it was being a a little bug and it showed the blue srceen of death i i spell that right and i did not like the key board too small

Taz get a Mac Pro
the gulf of mexico is cooling down. any reason why guys?
Maria moving NW at 2 mph? NHC - just say stationary. Stationary the whole day basically. I could crawl on my knees and go faster than 2 mph lol
Quoting luigi18:


She is driving us Crazy thanks God is out to SEA can you imagine having her visit us here in PR for these 3 days!


ya, the amount of flooding in the Valley foot of the Mountains would have been horrible!
673. txjac
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
the gulf of mexico is cooling down. any reason why guys?


I believe that some of it is due to Nate spinning around for days and bringing up cooler waters ...plus we just had a cool/cold front pass through here for about a week...temps were way down ...however that have now returned to their unbearable triple digits!
Quoting luigi18:

Taz get a Mac Pro



you buy me one lol there like 2,000 and up
Hi Taz :) Time to check out the new advisory on Maria.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
the gulf of mexico is cooling down. any reason why guys?



yes we had storms in the gulf and it cooled it down some
679. MZT
Video of winds from Katia crushing 15 cars at once in the U.K.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkZf38-u8DM
Quoting FrankZapper:
The I Predict Series..........

I predict that the " I Predict" series may not last for many more episodes, as there does not seem to be any interest in it.

I also predict that The Discovery Channel will pick it up if it is dropped here.

Stay tuned for more exciting weather predictions from I PREDICT. (A Todd Ramsey/Frank Zapper production)


Sorry... I would have been a better supporter but I was watching MNF.

I always miss good "Series" until they are over and in syndication. Please keep "I Predict" alive.

Consider this the start of a petition. :)
Quoting MZT:
Video of winds from Katia crushing 15 cars at once in the U.K.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkZf38-u8DM


Holy cow.
Maria has tops to 65000 ft on radar, that's tall.
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe have a nic vacation am paying for evere one


Well I'm ready for one.....lets go :)))...and I dont even know what an Acer is....I have a dull Dell laptop :\
The video seems odd---the people in the parking lot don't seem to be dealing with much wind. But they are downwind of the building, so that explains it.

I'm not suggesting the video is fake. ITN is a good news organization.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Maria has tops to 65000 ft on radar, that's tall.


Hail? Hail yes I bet!
Quoting Jedkins01:
Maria has tops to 65000 ft on radar, that's tall.


She's one tall drink of water. Speaking of unpredictable, the last Ophelia played tricks on coastal NC. Hope this years version stays away!
Culebra PR just repoted 30mph south  sustained winds and 38mph wind gust
Fajardo PR just reported 34.4mph south wind gust
Maria doesnt act like she wants to "feel the weakness" ....and there is a little moisture in Texas !

Quoting Tazmanian:
hi all



took back the Acer and got me a nic Toshiba




Definitely a better choice...now trade in that memory leaking Firefox for Chrome...LOL!
Quoting floodzonenc:


Sorry... I would have been a better supporter but I was watching MNF.

I always miss good "Series" until they are over and in syndication. Please keep "I Predict" alive.

Consider this the start of a petition. :)
If only the Treekies/Treekers had had this support!

Thank you
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Definitely a better choice...now trade in that memory leaking Firefox for Chrome...LOL!




firefox 7 will come with the fix for memory leaking
What the heck is holding Maria there... can you imagine a stationary Cat 1 hurricane the same period of time Maria has been here... It would be catastrophic...

When will she get things moving??

Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Maria doesnt act like she wants to "feel the weakness" ....and there is a little moisture in Texas !


water vapor imagery does not represent actual water vapor content in the air. if you look at the scale it is also sensing a temperature (ie corresponding to a certain height). Water vapor = Infrared just using a different wave length, that gets reflected at a slightly different height.

Link
Quoting sunlinepr:
What the heck is holding Maria there... can you imagine a stationary Cat 1 hurricane the same period of time Maria has been here... It would be catastrophic...

When will she get things moving??



Hurricane Flora did that for 4 days in 1963 in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Over 7,000 dead.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Hurricane Flora did that for 4 days in 1963 in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Over 7,000 dead.


Thanks for the information. I was looking for data about the longest time a Hurricane was stationary and its consecuenses...

The 00Z run of the GFS at 24 hours shows Maria near 24N 69W stronger than she is now, but still a tropical storm.

I'm doubting she will be much stronger with her lack of organization and continued shear.
Quoting txjac:


I believe that some of it is due to Nate spinning around for days and bringing up cooler waters ...plus we just had a cool/cold front pass through here for about a week...temps were way down ...however that have now returned to their unbearable triple digits!


Just heard the high is moving away from Texas! 85 is the high on Thursday here in Dallas. Plus, chances of rain from the front moving east from the Rockies is getting better and better. A change is a coming. :)
700. 7544
hmm wasmaria supoose to stall for this long and could the trof weaken before it grabs her tia
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The 00Z run of the GFS at 24 hours shows Maria near 24N 69W stronger than she is now, but still a tropical storm.

I'm doubting she will be much stronger with her lack of organization and continued shear.



the 18z showed a hurricane hiting MX at the end whats see what it show this yeting you no what too keep a eye on at the end of the mode runs
Quoting sunlinepr:


Thanks for the information. I was looking for data about the longest time a Hurricane was stationary and its consecuenses...



Flora wasn't completely stationary, but was in the same general area for 4 days. A hurricane the whole time. Hit Haiti as a Cat 4, then hung out over eastern Cuba. Most of the fatalities were in Cuba.

There were reliable reports of 70" of rain, and even reports of 90"

dos any one think hurricane season is ending early this year?
I guess it would depend on how you defined stationary. Within a degree size square for latitude and longitude?

Storms can crawl, do hairpin turns and loop but they seldom are absolutely stationary.
Quoting Tazmanian:
dos any one think hurricane season is ending early this year?


I don't think it'll end early, I think we're just heading into a short lull. I've seen that happen from time to time.
Quoting Tazmanian:
dos any one think hurricane season is ending early this year?


I think we will go through November with storms. Could be wrong. We'll find out!
At 36 hours in the 00Z GFS run Maria is near 26N 69W moving due north as a strong tropical storm
Keeper of the Gate's sun image makes me think of the Green Lantern.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
At 36 hours in the 00Z GFS run Maria is near 26N 69W moving due north as a strong tropical storm



can we make it a cat 5 lol
The 00Z GFS run at 48 hours shows Maria near 29N 69W at about the same strength. No other tropical development.
TEXAS RAIN IS ON THE WAY!!! Friday through Wednesday of next week.
715. 7544
idk none of the models showed her even stalling this long shes got to move soon or not
Quoting Tazmanian:



can we make it a cat 5 lol


That's subject to the energy constraints of the atmospheric and oceanic system Taz :P
Eh ... normally I'm all for a strong fish storm ... but the weaker Maria is the less of a cool wake she'll leave and the less effect of rising pressure will result. Too much cooling and it will enhance storm propagation further south.
oh if any one cares window 8 build Conference starts on SEP 13th too SEP 16th whats see if they cone out with window 8 beta


Link
Whopper in BOC on 9/28 (GFS) headed for Texas. Should bring heavy rain.
Quoting TXMegaWatt:
TEXAS RAIN IS ON THE WAY!!! Friday through Wednesday of next week.




no no no all rain has too come too me 1st TX cant have any heh heh heh
Quoting FrankZapper:
Whopper in BOC on 9/28 (GFS) headed for Texas. Should bring heavy rain.


huh? that is far out, but got a picture or link to that?
Quoting luigi18:


She is driving us Crazy thanks God is out to SEA can you imagine having her visit us here in PR for these 3 days!
Well is she hangs out in there for 24 hours and the convection continues to pulls southward, we might get 1975 Tropical storm Loisa, in Puerto Rico, hope not. Loisa was one killer storm.
Quoting TXMegaWatt:
TEXAS RAIN IS ON THE WAY!!! Friday through Wednesday of next week.


good news! where in TX?
The 00Z run of the GFS at 60 hours shows Maria at 32N 68W moving NNE. Close enough to give Bermuda a few squalls but still too far west to be dangerous.

Maria strengthened between 48 and 60 hours and is now on the border between tropical storm and hurricane.
The 00Z run of the GFS at 72 hours shows Maria near 37N 65W and deepening, possibly from baroclinic factors. Probably a Cat 1 hurricane. No other action in the tropics.
The 00Z run of the GFS at 84 hours shows Maria near 42N 59W, moving northeastwards quickly, and beginning to be captured by a larger low.
The 00Z run of the GFS at 96 hours show the capture of Maria completed. There are no other interesting areas in the tropics. I'll keep watching the run to see if anything pops up.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The 00Z run of the GFS at 96 hours show the capture of Maria completed. There are no other interesting areas in the tropics.



the season is dead lol
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The 00Z run of the GFS at 96 hours show the capture of Maria completed. There are no other interesting areas in the tropics. I'll keep watching the run to see if anything pops up.


This could be the next "pops up".... Just to go out from Africa...

731. DFWjc
Quoting TexasHurricane:


good news! where in TX?


I'll believe it when it's a puddle that doesn't evaporate in less than 30 seconds on the ground :P
I'm still here. 168 hours and nothing yet.

And the rain that the GFS run last night brought to Texas? That's mostly gone too.

Quoting FrankZapper:
Whopper in BOC on 9/28 (GFS) headed for Texas. Should bring heavy rain.
Really??  The run I saw had that potential storm heading towards Mexico, not Texas.

And I wouldn't quite declare the season dead by any means in the GoM...if the Texas Death Ridge does seem to be weakening its grip, and the fronts begin to move on in, or if the A-B High decides to reestablish itself, it still could get interesting. Remember Lili of 2002?? Juan of 1985?? Opal?? Georges??

Most storms coming out of the W or SW Carribean, though, I expect to either go W into Mexico or CenAm, or get shunted N to NE into Florida or the Atlantic.


Anthony
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'm still here. 168 hours and nothing yet.

And the rain that the GFS run last night brought to Texas? That's mostly gone too.



heh heh
735. flsky
This is beautiful. Any info to add w/the pic?

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting DFWjc:


I'll believe it when it's a puddle that doesn't evaporate in less than 30 seconds on the ground :P


lol....not really funny, but is.

well, I hope that high will move soon and some good rain can come in.

Wishful thinking anyways.
NCEP page is freezing up for me.
On a westward track, Tropical Depression Eleven steadily intensified, becoming a tropical storm on September 11 at 1800 UTC; it received the name Hugo.
The same large low that last night's GFS showed in the western Caribbean appeared at 168 hours. It is weaker than last night's run. At 240 hours still showing no signs of development.
The 00Z run of the GFS at 264 hours shows the west Caribbean low developing into a tropical depression and making landfall on the Yucatan coast near the Mexico/Belize border.
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
Culebra PR just repoted 30mph south  sustained winds and 38mph wind gust
Fajardo PR just reported 34.4mph south wind gust
Yes tonight Puerto Rico is feeling the effects of a real storm, and it looks that is going to turn worst with a tropical storm almost stationary on top of us..
The 00Z run of the GFS at 288 hours shows the depression emerging into the southern Bay of Campeche near 19.5N, 91W and moving WNW. A vigorous disturbance is SW of the Cape Verde Islands near 13N 30W
The 00Z run of the GFS at 312 hours shows the Campeche depression moving west into Mexico near Veracruz and dying. The Cape Verde system is now a tropical storm near 14.5N 35W
Looks like it's reorganizing and expanding just N of PR.... S convection now over the N PR...

If it keeps stationary and expands, we will be inside the TS impact area...



Can I get the 6888 hr run?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The 00Z run of the GFS at 288 hours shows the depression emerging into the southern Bay of Campeche near 19.5N, 91W and moving WNW. A vigorous disturbance is SW of the Cape Verde Islands near 13N 30W
The 00Z GFS run at 324 hours shows the Cape Verde tropical storm gaining strength. It is near 15N 37W.
Quoting swflurker:
Can I get the 6888 hr run?


You can write the program and get the supercomputers yourself ;)
748. JLPR2
Maria has a twin in the Wpac.


Looks nice on infrared but the LLC is displaced to the west of the convection.
The 00Z GFS run at 360 hours shows the Cape Verde storm at the edge of hurricane strength. It is moving WNW and is near 17.5N 40W. A large trough is developing in the central Atlantic and starting to scoop the storm north.
Quoting TXMegaWatt:
TEXAS RAIN IS ON THE WAY!!! Friday through Wednesday of next week.

Stop the teasing... I remember some weeks ago, we had 80% possibilities of rain in Houston, went to zip overnight. I'll believe it when I see it. :)
The 00Z run of the GFS at 384 hours shows the Cape Verde storm is near 20N 41W. The storm has weakened slightly between 360-372 hours and strengthened to a Cat 1 hurricane between 372-384 hours. It slowed down a lot between 372-384 hrs. The trough to the northwest is filling in.

That concludes this run.
The GFS run tonight took away the Texas rain forecast for the weekend but brings moderate to heavy rain to much of Texas on September 20-21.
SAL is doing it's inhibiting job again.... Good...

754. JLPR2
Let see in that last run of the GFS I saw:

Ophelia in the CATL, barely reaching the islands, seems to dissipate before achieving it.

Philippe behind Ophelia, recurving near 50w.

Seems like a TD in the Western Caribbean, but considering strength isn't exactly what the models are known for, it could very well be Rina.

Sean behind Philippe, at 20N 40W at the end of the run.

If that were to happen it would put September at 7 named storms.
Thanks for the update!
Quoting JLPR2:
Let see in that last run of the GFS I saw:

Ophelia in the CATL, barely reaching the islands, seems to dissipate before achieving it.

Philippe behind Ophelia, recurving near 50w.

Seems like a TD in the Western Caribbean, but considering strength isn't exactly what the models are known for, it could very well be Rina.

Sean behind Philippe, at 20N 40W at the end of the run.

If that were to happen it would put September at 7 named storms.
Quoting JLPR2:
Let see in that last run of the GFS I saw:

Ophelia in the CATL, barely reaching the islands, seems to dissipate before achieving it.

Philippe behind Ophelia, recurving near 50w.

Seems like a TD in the Western Caribbean, but considering strength isn't exactly what the models are known for, it could very well be Rina.

Sean behind Philippe, at 20N 40W at the end of the run.

If that were to happen it would put September at 7 named storms.


And we still have October to go... and november...
757. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


And we have still October to go... and november...


If that run becomes a reality then we could very well have to dust off the Greek alphabet.
Quoting sunlinepr:
SAL is doing it's inhibiting job again.... Good...




i dont no what your seeing but i see all most no SAL at all at this time
759. JLPR2
Another area of 8"+ rainfall accumulating in south PR.

760. JLPR2
This disturbance was developed by the 12z EURO run.

Quoting Tazmanian:



i dont no what your seeing but i see all most no SAL at all at this time


Well, not as strong as months before, but some there in the N of the new wave....
Quoting JLPR2:
This disturbance was developed by the 12z EURO run.



Going NW?
763. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Going NW?


Yep, out to sea.
The Virgin Islands, specially Anegada, should be in TS conditions, now for a while...

Quoting Grothar:


And to think, I was going to leave you in my will.


And to think I was gonna get so much money from you being that you are a Robber Barron and all.
Ya'll got me looking at SAL

Nearly 100 animals were found dead after a Petco store flooded in upstate New York. Petco apologizes to the community after residents express outrage, and the company promises a full investigation.

767. JLPR2
Still not a drop in my area while the SE and south are getting swamped.
Quoting JLPR2:
Still not a drop in my area while the SE and south are getting swamped.


How are you guys doing for rain this year?? My guess is you are NOT having a drought year??
Quoting JLPR2:
Still not a drop in my area while the SE and south are getting swamped.
Puerto Rico is going to get nail tonight good, all of Maria's convection hsading SE...towards the big Island
770. JLPR2
Quoting traumaboyy:


How are you guys doing for rain this year?? My guess is you are NOT having a drought year??


Nope, in fact I believe we are at above normal levels.

Also here, quiet and good temp. for sleeping...

Hasta la vista beibi.... (spanglish)

No drought.... 500 gallons of rain water collected... for daily use...
circulation is evident in long range radar from PR, looks to almost be moving SE slowly.

Link
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Definitely a better choice...now trade in that memory leaking Firefox for Chrome...LOL!

I'll stick with Firefox, which is improving
Quoting Tazmanian:




firefox 7 will come with the fix for memory leaking

Indeed, the betas are already showing promise.
Quoting JLPR2:
This disturbance was developed by the 12z EURO run.



That looks very menacing.
Nothing exciting on the global models. If October isn't insanely active...this is going to be a BIG bust in terms of hurricanes. We haven't even had a hurricane this season that gives you the WOW factor and we are past the peak.
The forecasters were calling for quality over quantity and we are getting the opposite.
Quoting vince1:

I'll stick with Firefox, which is improving
Indeed, the betas are already showing promise.


Firefox 6 (6.02) is great. I often have 25 or 30 windows open, running javascript and activeX, and Firefox rarely crashes. Chrome is coming along nicely - I use it for some things. Internet Explorer is my third choice - I only use it when required for some dark ages or proprietary websites.

Edit: I have 9 GB of RAM in a powerful desktop so I tend not to notice memory leakage that is relatively mild.

WTO
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I guess it would depend on how you defined stationary. Within a degree size square for latitude and longitude?

Storms can crawl, do hairpin turns and loop but they seldom are absolutely stationary.


I would say drifting NW at 2mph
Quoting Skyepony:
Ya'll got me looking at SAL

Nearly 100 animals were found dead after a Petco store flooded in upstate New York. Petco apologizes to the community after residents express outrage, and the company promises a full investigation.



SAL doesn't look too bad. What is the prognosis for that disturbance on the coast of Africa?

MIMIC gives a clearer picture (much clearer than radar) of what is going on with Maria.

CIMSS MIMIC Maria

re: Petco - that reinforces a decision I previously made to favor their competition.

WTO
Shear ahead of that African disturbance is 20 to 30+ knots, and shear tendency is upward. Note area between 30 and 60 West:

Wind Shear and Shear Tendency
Morning all. Just took a look at Maria.




This is one weird storm, is all I can say. It's moved about 50 miles in the last 2 days, it seems. [OK, I'm sure its more, but really! it's been hovering over that little NE corner of the CAR for days....]

Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. Just took a look at Maria.




This is one weird storm, is all I can say. It's moved about 50 miles in the last 2 days, it seems. [OK, I'm sure its more, but really! it's been hovering over that little NE corner of the CAR for days....]



Hi Baha, it seems to be moving SE,more like drifting or looping
I wish it would just go about its northerly business, is all. All this hanging about and looping is not condusive to the comfort of those to the west of it.

I suppose the trough / front that's supposed to take it out is going to pick it up today.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I wish it would just go about its northerly business, is all. All this hanging about and looping is not condusive to the comfort of those to the west of it.

I suppose the trough / front that's supposed to take it out is going to pick it up today.


yes,its supposed to,havent seen anything saying otherwise
Maybe trying to re-locate the center SW?
Seriously, Maria! The power went out at my house...
Just peeking, see ya in the afternoon guys.
Looks like our friends in P.R are getting hammered this morning in some areas. Also, looks like there was some potential Water spout action just S.E of Ponce with strong rotation in the area.

even though we are little more than half done it seems as if we are more than that. only thorn in that idea is its a la nina. might be quite a few to go
Good morning, all.

Britain braced for second day of storms bringing blackouts and transport chaos
Bus driver George Brown dies in County Durham after tree falls on vehicle
Lorry driver killed in three-vehicle smash on M54
Boy, 11, hospitalised after being hit by roof that blew off garage in Bradford

Britain hit by winds of up to 80mph

Thousands of homes across central England lose power

All high-speed ferries from Portsmouth to France are cancelled
Tour of Britain cycle race cancelled over safety fears
Planes blown off course while landing at Leeds Bradford International Airport


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2036158/Hu rricane-Katia-UK-Worst-storms-15-years-bring-black outs-chaos.html#ixzz1XpR5PoHe


Good morning 6z GFS back on board with the Caribbean disturbance this is 300hrs. out and initially develops it around the 19th. Also, develops two other waves out in the middle of the Atlantic. Link Loop

cant belive maria has been in they same area since last thursday wasnt it supposed to be almost out the picture by yesterday and near newfoundland by today?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good morning 6z GFS back on board with the Caribbean disturbance this is 300hrs. out and initially develops it around the 19th. Also, develops two other waves out in the middle of the Atlantic. Link Loop

i think they better figure out whats gonna happen with maria before they say theres 2 new waves that havent even developed yey lol
Quoting thisishsyterical:
i think they better figure out whats gonna happen with maria before they say theres 2 new waves that havent even developed yey lol
LOL, well I'll admit I didn't see that stall occurring. By the looks of it PR is getting a lot of rain and winds.
Another Hoboob (dust storm) in Phoenix on Sunday caused by collapsing thunder storm.
300 hrs is like a dream but florida looks to be under those circles irene and lee most likely will be retired will there be another one? maria is pulling a surprise getting so close to puerto rico
Keep an eye on the Center of Maria as we get the first good pass of the visible satellite this morning, the NHC has the center at 21.6N 67.7W. I betch ya that is well removed from the convection that is to the south. Link Two things probably happening here: 1) Wind Shear from the approaching trough and 2) The steering in this area is weak. What will probably happen is the center will lift off to the NNW then North and eventually NE and build new convection around it leaving behind the old convection to persist over PR and eventually wane.
797. rkay1
Yeah because 300+hrs model forecasts are accurate.  These models serve one purpose is that is to get the wishcasters fueled up.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good morning 6z GFS back on board with the Caribbean disturbance this is 300hrs. out and initially develops it around the 19th. Also, develops two other waves out in the middle of the Atlantic. Link Loop


Steering at the 850mb level over Maria for a pressure >1000mb and winds around 45kts or less...



...and wind shear of 20kts with 30kts approaching from the trough.

Quoting rkay1:
Yeah because 300 hrs model forecasts are accurate. These models serve one purpose is that is to get the wishcasters fueled up.

You must really like attacking people, lol. And besides check the link the storm develops in 6 days and with the trough over the east coast, the storm really has two ways to go North and then Northeast or North and then West depending on how strong it actually gets.
Quoting rkay1:
Yeah because 300+hrs model forecasts are accurate.  These models serve one purpose is that is to get the wishcasters fueled up.



<-- passes Rkay1 some coffee with extra sugar and donuts. A bit early for being harsh. Coolie's just saying what's possibly out there.
Good Morning all.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


<-- passes Rkay1 some coffee with extra sugar and donuts. A bit early for being harsh. Coolie's just saying what's possibly out there.
Hey, I'm starting to need the sugar rush myself.... may make a run to DD before I settle in to work...
For the first time in several mornings, Maria's center of circulation is NOT exposed.



A mess of a storm....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, I'm starting to need the sugar rush myself.... may make a run to DD before I settle in to work...


Morning, Baha! Sending you some French Toast with lots of extra syrup. *G* We're in for another triple digit heat day. But Fall is coming...
Quoting swflurker:
Can I get the 6888 hr run?
How about the OVER 9000hr run?
TX13 and CRS, I think Maria's philosophy is 'watch what I can do'. She has been something to watch over the course of days.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
TX13 and CRS, I think Maria's philosophy is 'watch what I can do'. She has been something to watch over the course of days.


She's barely even moved over the past couple of days.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


She's barely even moved over the past couple of days.


And lashing Puerto Rico with rain. I hope she doesn't cause any mudslides or such. And it looks like Bermuda will be next when she finally decides to move on.
Katia's winds are slowly subsiding with a little bit of damage and one unfortunate fatality.

Still be pretty blustery today yet, though.
The National Hurricane Center still lies on the weakest end of the intensity forecast, compared to all of the computer models. They lie at 55 knots (65 mph), while most models have it at 65-70 knots (75-80 mph). All of them bring it up to hurricane status though.

Quoting Cotillion:
Katia's winds are slowly subsiding with a little bit of damage and one unfortunate fatality.

Still be pretty blustery today yet, though.


Bus driver George Brown dies in County Durham after tree falls on vehicle
Lorry driver killed in three-vehicle smash on M54
Boy, 11, hospitalised after being hit by roof that blew off garage in Bradford

Hopefully no one else is hurt or worse.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Bus driver George Brown dies in County Durham after tree falls on vehicle
Lorry driver killed in three-vehicle smash on M54
Boy, 11, hospitalised after being hit by roof that blew off garage in Bradford

Hopefully no one else is hurt or worse.


Bit more info:

"Tributes have been paid to a "selfless and loyal" hospice ambulance driver killed by a falling tree as the remnants of Hurricane Katia brought 80mph winds to Britain.
Volunteer George Brown, 68, from High Etherley, County Durham, was killed on Monday afternoon on the A688 between Staindrop and Bishop Auckland.
He was driving to collect patients on behalf of Butterwick Hospice in Bishop Auckland when the tree fell on to the ambulance."

Real shame, being killed trying to help others.
Quoting Cotillion:
Katia's winds are slowly subsiding with a little bit of damage and one unfortunate fatality.

Still be pretty blustery today yet, though.


I have friends in the UK who also raise and show Papillons and belong to their email list. I've been surprised no one there has mentioned Katia. Normally they talk about the weather, especially storms and snow. I've seen pictures of some of your flooding, etc..
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2011

...MARIA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 67.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Quoting Cotillion:


Bit more info:

"Tributes have been paid to a "selfless and loyal" hospice ambulance driver killed by a falling tree as the remnants of Hurricane Katia brought 80mph winds to Britain.
Volunteer George Brown, 68, from High Etherley, County Durham, was killed on Monday afternoon on the A688 between Staindrop and Bishop Auckland.
He was driving to collect patients on behalf of Butterwick Hospice in Bishop Auckland when the tree fell on to the ambulance."

Real shame, being killed trying to help others.


Bless him and his family. How sad. Makes you wonder sometimes why the good are taken.
Since the previous mapping for 12Sept_12pmGMT :
20.5n66.0w, 20.6n67.0w, 20.8n67.1w, 21.2n67.4w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Maria's_13Sept_6amGMT_ATCF
20.3n66.1w, 20.6n67.0w, 20.8n67.1w, 21.1n67.4w, 21.4n67.6w are now the most recent positions
Starting 12Sept_6mGMT and ending 13Sept_6amGMT

The 4 southeastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the long northwesternmost line-segment is the 13Sept_6amGMT straightline projection,
the coastline blob at 32.361n80.441w-BFT is the endpoint of the 13Sept_12amGMT straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
the coastline blob at 35.69n75.721w-MEO is the endpoint of the 12Sept_6pmGMT straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the island blob at 22.389n72.821w-MYG is the endpoint of the 12Sept_12pmGMT straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.

The aforementioned previous (unseen) straightline projections have been corrected*: ie derived from the most recent(13Sept_6amGMT)set of ATCFcoordinates

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 4mph(6.4k/h) on a heading of 328degrees(NNW)
TS.Maria was headed toward passage over TopSailBeach,NorthCarolina ~11days1hour from now

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection. eg The re-evaluation&alteration of 20.5n66.0w to 20.3n66.1w also changed the concurrent straightline projection and its end point from the island dumbbell at 21.079n73.101w-IGA to the island blob at 22.389n72.821w-MYG.
Normally I choose to preserve the historicity of the mappings by using the endpoint from the most recent previous mapping on the new map, but I made corrections this time because of the 18hour span between maps.

And because I dislike "pulling a rabbit out of the hat", to see the branchings of straightline projections (including the IGAtoMYG shift) from TS.Maria's path, copy&paste
20.5n66.0w-20.6n67.0w, 20.5n66.0w-21.079n73.101w, iga, 20.3n66.1w-20.6n67.0w, 20.3n66.1w-22.389n72.821w, myg, 20.6n67.0w-20.8n67.1w, 20.6n67.0w-35.69n75.721w, meo, 20.8n67.1w-21.1n67.4w, 20.8n67.1w-32.361n80.441w, bft, 21.1n67.4w-21.4n67.6w, 21.1n67.4w-34.408n77.603w, 01nc into the GreatCircleMapper for more info...
...as well as a feel for why I don't post those previous branchings (or corrections) on the map.
Good morning.

Copious amounts of rain continue to fall in PR with amounts already around 13 inches. Numerous flood warnings have been issued and I learned just now that some roads are impassable.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For the first time in several mornings, Maria's center of circulation is NOT exposed.

if there really is one
Good morning all. To our friends in PR, can anyone provide us with your current Maria rainfall totals todate? You guys look you are getting pounded..
821. rkay1
lol, I just love when people get hyped up about 300+hr models.  We have enough problems getting a 5 day forecast cone narrowed down, let alone a system that doesn't exist.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


<-- passes Rkay1 some coffee with extra sugar and donuts. A bit early for being harsh. Coolie's just saying what's possibly out there.

Quoting aislinnpaps:


I have friends in the UK who also raise and show Papillons and belong to their email list. I've been surprised no one there has mentioned Katia. Normally they talk about the weather, especially storms and snow. I've seen pictures of some of your flooding, etc..


It's been on the news enough. I think it'd be more of a news item if it had hit further south. It's more of a news story as it happens less. NW Scotland is pretty used to these type of storms, though this was quite fierce.

I was on the south side of it, walking around York yesterday wasn't too bad though it was strong. I was basically at the cut off point - all trains going north were cancelled due to it being too problematic with the high winds.
Can someone clarify for me what is going to make Maria go North? Is it the trough that went thru Florida yesterday or is it that she is following the periphery of the high or is it a weakness between the highs? She hasn't moved much since yesterday am, but she is looking better today.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good morning 6z GFS back on board with the Caribbean disturbance this is 300hrs. out and initially develops it around the 19th. Also, develops two other waves out in the middle of the Atlantic. Link Loop



Saw this same system form in a model run I saw this past Sun. morning.

Developed it in the same place, but took it on a more eastern track up the east coast of FL and through the SE essentially along the Eastern side of the Appalachian chain.

Interesting though it developed it in almost the same place.
sw corner of puerto rico is getting heavy rain there is a bay there called phosphorus bay which when there is not a moon is one of the most amazing places ive seen that part of the island is very beautiful
Quoting rkay1:
lol, I just love when people get hyped up about 300+hr models.  We have enough problems getting a 5 day forecast cone narrowed down, let alone a system that doesn't exist.



It's a weather blog. People are discussing weather. No problem if it is 300+ hours out. Wishcasters will be wishcasters, do as I do, ignore them. But to try to stop people from posting what is on a model in a weather blog? Really. That's all I have to say on this.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

Copious amounts of rain continue to fall in PR with amounts already around 13 inches. Numerous flood warnings have been issued and I learned just now that some roads are impassable.



It's barely moving!

I figured you guys to be drying out by now, but it just sits and rains.
Quoting Cotillion:


It's been on the news enough. I think it'd be more of a news item if it had hit further south. It's more of a news story as it happens less. NW Scotland is pretty used to these type of storms, though this was quite fierce.

I was on the south side of it, walking around York yesterday wasn't too bad though it was strong. I was basically at the cut off point - all trains going north were cancelled due to it being too problematic with the high winds.


True. Katia probably didn't really affect them in a serious way, which is great. If it had, it would have been posted.
maria looks like a very large amplitude tropical wave with multiple centers. rookie at this. any opinions?
Quoting rkay1:
Yeah because 300+hrs model forecasts are accurate.  These models serve one purpose is that is to get the wishcasters fueled up.



No, they're not accurate.

But they do give an indication of what could be in the offing in terms of conditions.

But every now and then, they do get pretty close on what happens.
831. rkay1
It's also interesting to note, statistically speaking, wherever a 300+hr model has a future storm hitting land it never hits that area.  In other words, FL your safe.
Quoting whepton3:


Saw this same system form in a model run I saw this past Sun. morning.

Developed it in the same place, but took it on a more eastern track up the east coast of FL and through the SE essentially along the Eastern side of the Appalachian chain.

Interesting though it developed it in almost the same place.

Off to my workshop today. Am loving being able to go in an hour later and to be able to leave school for a 'real' lunch. Miss my kids, but still get to see them and get a hug. They are totally confused! LOL, teacher there but not teaching them. Everyone have a wonderful and safe Tuesday.
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