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Maria brushes Bermuda; 24-hour blitz by Climate Reality Project underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:27 PM GMT on September 15, 2011

Tropical Storm Maria is roaring past Bermuda, bringing winds near tropical storm force. At 11 am local time, winds at the Bermuda airport were sustained at 36 mph, just below the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm strength. Outer spiral bands of Maria have brought a few brief heavy rain squalls to the island, as seen on Bermuda radar. The core of Maria is now at its closest point of approach to the island, about 150 miles (240 km) to the west, and the island may yet see an hour of two of sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph. Maria is headed north-northeast, and will brush Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Since Newfoundland will be on the weak (left) side of a rapidly weakening Maria, I'm not expecting much in the way of wind damage from the storm in Canada, though heavy rains may cause isolated minor to moderate flooding. Top sustained winds in St. Johns will probably be in the 25 - 35 mph range Friday afternoon, though a few hours of tropical storm force winds of 40 - 45 mph are possible if Maria ends up tracking farther west than expected.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. A westward-moving tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa, has a modest amount of poorly organized heavy thunderstorm activity. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, is in a moist environment, and is over warm waters, so has the potential for some development, though NHC is currently not mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict this wave could develop into a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua could see the development of a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this scenario.


Figure 2. Heidi Cullen of Climate Central introduces Boulder, Colorado teacher John Zavalney, one of the presenters of the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour live streaming special.

The Climate Reality Project
The Climate Reality Project (climaterealityproject.org) is a little more than halfway through their live, 24-hour streaming video effort that features 24 different presenters for 24 hours, representing every time zone around the globe. The presentations began last night at 7 pm EDT, and will end tonight at 7 pm EDT. It's worth checking out; there have been some interesting presentations and some dull ones. Interspersed with the presentations are panel discussions with some slick Google Earth graphics; last night's discussions were led by Heidi Cullen of Climate Central, who is a rarity--a very personable and well-spoken scientist, and someone you'll be seeing on TV much more in coming years. The Climate Reality Project showed one excellent video tracking the history of industry-funded denial of science that began with the tobacco industry, something I've discussed as well in post called The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy. Also shown were two cute 15 - 30 second comedy videos. But while the Climate Reality Project's 24-hour blitz has already gotten 3 million people to tune in, its documentary-style tone and Powerpoint lectures will not be engaging enough to keep most visitors around for more than a few minutes. Ph.D. oceanographer Randy Olson, who left a tenure-track professorship to become a Hollywood film maker, has written an excellent book called Don't be Such a Scientist, about the failure of scientists to communicate in way that will engage people (I thought so highly of the book that I bought 20 copies of the book to give away to students at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric Science this year.) In the latest post in his blog, The Benshi, Olson outlines how the climate community has failed in the main way needed to engage an audience: create a likable voice through the effective telling of stories, which is a less literal means of communication and is less cerebral and thus reaches a mass audience. Future efforts at communication by the climate science community really need to work on using the telling of stories by likable voices in order to get their message across, and I highly recommend that all climate scientists who do public outreach read Olson's book "Don't be Such a Scientist."

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No?


why the question mark after no? Typo or you don't know either?
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
yooo i wish to report strong gusty winds in excess of 40 mph a lot of rain i am in the island of grenada
In Antigua here. Always great to find another islander :)
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Yes Indeed... I might have a different opinion than someone else does about an issue, but I can drink beer with anyone. With the stipulation that they are pulling for LSU tonight against MS. State. Just Joking I like the competition as well.

Finally got Hurricane Maria I see. It's hard to believe that we are in the peak week of the season with such a lack of activity.

With drier air filtering in NOLA tonight I think it is a super night for a beer or 10 and watching LSU man-handle Ms St....GEAUX TIGERS and DRY AIR!! Come on guys and gals...I have been here a while and don't post much but the personal stuff needs to be taken to the parking lot
Quoting DFWjc:


Okay, here's why I'm not.

It's September.. for the last 15 years I've lived in NE Texas and it always rains after mid October. The rain will come when the temperature drops. IMO
I've been wishing Texas some rain.And it never came.We'll see what the fall and winter holds.And if Texs doesn't get no rin in that time period then Texas is screwed.
Quoting xXAviatorXx:
In Antigua here. Always great to find another islander :)

yes that's good but the weather here is just horrible this evening we could hear repeatedly the thunder then without warning the winds increased dramatically we are all surprised here
Quoting aprinz1979:


why the question mark after no? Typo or you don't know either?


I'm hoping not, lol. I've not seen anything on his blog that would suggest such, unless he posted on the main blog while I was at school earlier today.

I certainly hope he hasn't left..
I agree. You'd think someone had insulted someone else's mother or something. Sheesh.

Quoting StormPro:

...Come on guys and gals...I have been here a while and don't post much but the personal stuff needs to be taken to the parking lot
Quoting caribbeantracker01:

yes that's good but the weather here is just horrible this evening we could hear repeatedly the thunder then without warning the winds increased dramatically we are all surprised here
lol i know that feeling :)
First time I have ever seen my area's forecast say "Clear" in months.
Tonight
76 °F
Clear
Tomorrow
86 °F
Clear
Looks like you have a wave going through there or something, based on IR.

Quoting caribbeantracker01:

yes that's good but the weather here is just horrible this evening we could hear repeatedly the thunder then without warning the winds increased dramatically we are all surprised here
513. DFWjc
Quoting StormPro:

With drier air filtering in NOLA tonight I think it is a super night for a beer or 10 and watching LSU man-handle Ms St....GEAUX TIGERS and DRY AIR!! Come on guys and gals...I have been here a while and don't post much but the personal stuff needs to be taken to the parking lot


Taking a break from weather for a sec.... Just wanted to let you know I work at Cowboys Stadium for Traffic and the people from Louisiana (cheering for LSU) were some of the nicest people I've met. It was a joy talking with some of the fans and the band was awesome, such power with their music... Also enjoyed the duck gumbo a fan gave me, LOL!!!
Quoting aquak9:

It's a ferret.

No wait...actually it's TWO ferrets.


Ferrets or Fairies?
Quoting daddyjames:









I would agree with the "out of control" ratings system. It does nothing but promote the same social Darwinism on this blog as is present in high school - the formation of "cliques" and the vilification of individuals that do not "belong" to them. IMHO the whole ratings system does nothing but stifle open and honest debate among the members here.

I do agree with both hurricanejunky and Neopolitan. I have come on here asking questions pertaining to climate change models and potential effects on tropical weather activity, and been pounced upon. Oftentimes people's opinion and/or interpretation of data are vilified - and people from both sides of the spectrum are guilty of this.

Last but not least, is that I agree with Grothar. We all need to develop a sense of humor, and stop fighting with one another. It is extremely unproductive, and serves no purpose but to further reinforce the extreme positions that people have.


Agree with Daddy James, try to learn with the valuable information Dr. Masters provides, ignore the political issues, and respect both sides of the spectrum and of course follow my believes ,enriching my knowledge. In my case I worry about the future of the planet, thus appreciate the blog for the insights on the subject.
Quoting washingtonian115:
No offense but I've given up on Texas.It's like you keep hoping and their still not recieving.IMO they'll get it when they get it.They better hope they have a La nina year like 2007.


Not quite on 2007....It was El Nino that gave us rain during spring/early summer. The rain abruptly stopped in fall of 2007 (La Nina) and did not resume until El Nino in fall of 2009..

Kinda confusing.....The actual weather tends to "lag" after formation...

I'm not offended. I get offended when local TV weather people make it sound like it's going to rain. Guess they are just making a bunch of noise to get rating.
Quoting DFWjc:


Taking a break from weather for a sec.... Just wanted to let you know I work at Cowboys Stadium for Traffic and the people from Louisiana (cheering for LSU) were some of the nicest people I've met. It was a joy talking with some of the fans and the band was awesome, such power with their music... Also enjoyed the duck gumbo a fan gave me, LOL!!!


Yum, yum. Never heard of duck gumbo. Gotta tell my husband about this one. Yum
Good evening my little chickadees.
The heat is slowly loosing it's grip on us and it is pleasant with temp 79 here in Crescent City.
519. DFWjc
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Yum, yum. Never heard of duck gumbo. Gotta tell my husband about this one. Yum


It was easy to get after what they did to Oregon...Geaux Tigers!!!
520. DFWjc
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Yum, yum. Never heard of duck gumbo. Gotta tell my husband about this one. Yum


Wu MAIL
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Not quite on 2007....It was El Nino that gave us rain during spring/early summer. The rain abruptly stopped in fall of 2007 (La Nina) and did not resume until El Nino in fall of 2009..

Kinda confusing.....The actual weather tends to "lag" after formation...

I'm not offended. I get offended when local TV weather people make it sound like it's going to rain. Guess they are just making a bunch of noise to get rating.
You all can have my rain.I'm sick of seeing it.It's all wet out side now and cloudy.Before it even rained today you could still see that the soil/dirt was not completly dry from the rain we got last week.
Good night Hurricane Maria:

523. DFWjc
Quoting washingtonian115:
You all can have my rain.I'm sick of seeing it.It's all wet out side now and cloudy.Before it even rained today you could still see that the soil/dirt was not completly dry from the rain we got last week.


What kind of rain is it? Misty/muggy or downpours?
Quoting washingtonian115:
You all can have my rain.I'm sick of seeing it.It's all wet out side now and cloudy.Before it even rained today you could still see that the soil/dirt was not completly dry from the rain we got last week.
In Antartica or Washington DC.
Quoting DFWjc:


What kind of rain is it? Misty/muggy or downpours?
It's having showers.They passed for now.But it's brezzy outside with cool temps.It's in the 50's and cloudy.
Quoting mossyhead:
In Antartica or Washington DC.
In D.C.I see green trees and a wet side walk.
Duck gumbo is great, love squirrel gumbo even more. It's been a beautiful day here, in the upper 70's. It was supposed to be a hot day, so no complaining from me! I see Maria is a hurricane now, at least for a little while before she hits colder water.
Quoting washingtonian115:
You all can have my rain.I'm sick of seeing it.It's all wet out side now and cloudy.Before it even rained today you could still see that the soil/dirt was not completly dry from the rain we got last week.


Think of all the beautiful plants that are growing because of the rain. Think of all the beautiful trees etc. that is being nurtured because of the rain. Beautiful lush East Coast woodlands...Ahhh

Now imagine all that vegetation dying and turning into concrete.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Duck gumbo is great, love squirrel gumbo even more. It's been a beautiful day here, in the upper 70's. It was supposed to be a hot day, so no complaining from me! I see Maria is a hurricane now, at least for a little while before she hits colder water.


Squirrel hmmm. No squirrel shortage here...
Hurricane Irene is one of the top-ten costliest disasters in USA history.

Just FYI.
My grandfather said all this GW talk is crazy. He says they used to freeze every winter in Chicago and they prayed for a warm blanket.
532. txjac
Quoting DFWjc:


What kind of rain is it? Misty/muggy or downpours?


Does it matter! lol! Just take it!
Or are you day dreaming about what it would look like!
Quoting FrankZapper:
My grandfather said all this GW talk is crazy. He says they used to freeze every winter in Chicago and they prayed for a warm blanket.


That would support Global Warming, not disprove it..
I'm in Newfoundland...going to have a storm tomorrow.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That would support Global Warming, not disprove it..


If its freezing, its globalwarming. If its burning, its global warming. I mean, the sun was caused by global warming right Neo?
536. txjac
Quoting FloatingCity:
I'm in Newfoundland...going to have a storm tomorrow.


What kind of storm?
537. DFWjc
Quoting txjac:


Does it matter! lol! Just take it!
Or are you day dreaming about what it would look like!


Oh I'll take any kind, but i won't take p!ss-mist.. hated that crap in Seattle(actually Kent, WA). I'd walk home about a mile from school and it's be just enough rain to not be completely drenched, but just enough to feel ugh!!!
Quoting txjac:


What kind of storm?
Maria
539. txjac
Quoting DFWjc:


Oh I'll take any kind, but i won't take p!ss-mist.. hated that crap in Seattle(actually Kent, WA). I'd walk home about a mile from school and it's be just enough rain to not be completely drenched, but just enough to feel ugh!!!


I always wanted to go to Seattle ...on my bucket list
i wonder how many got banned or left because of the GW dicussion.
Quoting txjac:


What kind of storm?

OOPS ...i forgot...the storm isn't hitting the US....
Quoting FloatingCity:
Maria


Yeah...you're going to have a storm tomorrow....
543. txjac
Quoting midnite02:
i wonder how many got banned or left because of the GW dicussion.


Even if they left I think its temporary ...I mean, how can you really leave this blog? Its additcting
Quoting txjac:


I always wanted to go to Seattle ...on my bucket list


Was in Seattle for a week about 17 years ago. Was beautiful weather, not a drop of rain all week. I'm going again in March-ish time frame this spring. Hoping for the same weather again.
Bastrop Fire Update and Drought Update:

Bastrop fire is now 75 percent contained, 1,544 homes destroyed that seems to be a final number hopefully? The last neighborhoods were opened today for people to see their homes destroyed or not destroyed. Power is starting to come on in some locations but it will be awhile before it is all restored.

The weather in South Central Texas has not changed much, temps are down some but the humidity is up which is good for the fires or future fires. But the Outlook here is about the same, much warmer than normal with little to no rain.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS...BUT A WELCOME RELIEF
FROM THE RETURN OF TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS WE`VE HAD THIS PAST WEEK.

DESPITE THE HIGHER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL ACROSS THE
REGION...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE PALTRY. THE LACK OF ANY
GOOD/ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISMS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PRECLUDE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...TROUGHING AT
THE SURFACE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT QPF
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE`LL TAKE WHATEVER WE CAN GET
547. txjac
Quoting FloatingCity:

OOPS ...i forgot...the storm isn't hitting the US....


No, not that ...its just that she has been moving so slowly it didnt even cross my mind that it would get that far ...my apologies ...I'm a mother and a lover of all ...I worry about everyone
I grew up in Wisconsin in the 1960s. My grandmother would say: It's a gonna be another ice age. Go somewhere hot.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Bastrop Fire Update and Drought Update:

Bastrop fire is now 75 percent contained, 1,544 homes destroyed that seems to be a final number hopefully? The last neighborhoods were opened today for people to see their homes destroyed or not destroyed. Power is starting to come on in some locations but it will be awhile before it is all restored.

The weather in South Central Texas has not changed much, temps are down some but the humidity is up which is good for the fires or future fires. But the Outlook here is about the same, much warmer than normal with little to no rain.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS...BUT A WELCOME RELIEF
FROM THE RETURN OF TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS WE`VE HAD THIS PAST WEEK.

DESPITE THE HIGHER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL ACROSS THE
REGION...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE PALTRY. THE LACK OF ANY
GOOD/ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISMS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PRECLUDE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...TROUGHING AT
THE SURFACE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT QPF
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE`LL TAKE WHATEVER WE CAN GET


So hard for them. I lost my house to a fire late last November. I understand what they're going through.
Quoting midnite02:
i wonder how many got banned or left because of the GW dicussion.


I wonder how many computers burned down in the heat of the arguments over global warming.
551. txjac
Quoting SubtropicalHi:
I grew up in Wisconsin in the 1960s. My grandmother would say: It's a gonna be another ice age. Go somewhere hot.



I grew up in Ohio and remember snow in October, now in May ...I travel home to see my mom from Texas at Christmas time and it always amazes me when there isnt any snow ...I always remember being a kid and there always being snow at Christmas
Quoting JupiterFL:


Neo, one ups again! Good job.

Well, I wasn't trying to "one up" PHM, or prove him wrong; I just eagerly ran to the TCR to verify what he'd said, as I've been searching for just such a record, and was actually disappointed that it didn't qualify.
Quoting midnite02:
i wonder how many got banned or left because of the GW dicussion.


left? probably a lot. banned? probably none.

Its a topic for today's blog entry, and yesterdays.
I like to talk weather, tropical or non tropical, I really do not like talking GW or Politics in person or on a blog, usually leads to arguments and hard feelings.
lol
556. DFWjc
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I like to talk weather, tropical or non tropical, I really do not like talking GW or Politics in person or on a blog, usually leads to arguments and hard feelings.


Speaking of weather, any change down there?
Quoting aislinnpaps:


So hard for them. I lost my house to a fire late last November. I understand what they're going through.
Sorry to hear that, how are you recovering? Bastrop has their first football game tonight since fire, alot of the firefighters etc will be there, should be a Nice Feeling time tonight in Bastrop. 1,544 homes destroyed but lots of homes were saved also. Almost all of the 6000 acre forrest in Bastrop was destroyed.
I meant for post 550
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I like to talk weather, tropical or non tropical, I really do not like talking GW or Politics in person or on a blog, usually leads to arguments and hard feelings.


you are right.
560. txjac
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


left? probably a lot. banned? probably none.

Its a topic for today's blog entry, and yesterdays.


I think Dr. Master's does this for a reason. Even though there is bickering and even though there are some that say they are leaving ...awareness of the subject is brought to attention ...even if you dont buy in to the GW I bet many on here think about respecting the planet more. And that is a good thing. I want to leave my kids and grandkids a beautiful world
So, how's Bermuda doin'?
Quoting txjac:


I think Dr. Master's does this for a reason. Even though there is bickering and even though there are some that say they are leaving ...awareness of the subject is brought to attention ...even if you dont buy in to the GW I bet many on here think about respecting the planet more. And that is a good thing. I want to leave my kids and greandkids a beautiful world


Awareness? I dont think many common folk believe in AGw anyways.
563. txjac
Quoting WeatherWx:


Awareness? I dont think many common folk believe in AGw anyways.


But do you believe in respecting the planet and leaving it (hopefully) a better place ecologically?

Edit

You dont have to be on either side for that to happen
Quoting DFWjc:


Speaking of weather, any change down there?
Honestly not much, it did drop below 100 but the humidity being higher I cannot tell the difference. A few clouds in the sky which is a change, some look like they could drop a light shower. They are saying we will have some moisture in the air but the high pressure will be too close and the trigger will be missing for us to have anything more than 20 percent maybe next week for a day or 2? I thought the trigger would be a front coming down but this front was a Big joke for us, right now it is hot and humid here. I work out every day in this weather and it feels the same to me like it has since May. Last decent rain in Austin was June 22 when they received almost 2 inches. I think I got about 1.5 inches that day? But since then I have received nothing. Going to get very warm in Dallas again the front will move north as a warm front.
565. txjac
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Honestly not much, it did drop below 100 but the humidity being higher I cannot tell the difference. A few clouds in the sky which is a change, some look like they could drop a light shower. They are saying we will have some moisture in the air but the high pressure will be too close and the trigger will be missing for us to have anything more than 20 percent maybe next week for a day or 2? I thought the trigger would be a front coming down but this front was a Big joke for us, right now it is hot and humid here. I work out every day in this weather and it feels the same to me like it has since May. Last decent rain in Austin was June 22 when they received almost 2 inches. I think I got about 1.5 inches that day? But since then I have received nothing. Going to get very warm in Dallas again the front will move north as a warm front.



I really do feel for you boho ...seeing you have to be out in this every day. Hope it changes for us soon
Quoting txjac:


But do you believe in respecting the planet and leaving it (hopefully) a better place ecologically?


You betcha!AGW and the environment are 2 completely different matters altogether. "Environment" usually used as a scapegoat to promote AGW. But what do I know, Im just a minused blogger!lol
Quoting txjac:


I think Dr. Master's does this for a reason. Even though there is bickering and even though there are some that say they are leaving ...awareness of the subject is brought to attention ...even if you dont buy in to the GW I bet many on here think about respecting the planet more. And that is a good thing. I want to leave my kids and grandkids a beautiful world
But the blog rules say no bickering, but Dr. Masters know there will be. So whats the reason for the rules if the blogger himself encourages it. He can say he wants discussion, but he knows there will bickering.
Quoting txjac:


I grew up in Ohio and remember snow in October, now in May ...I travel home to see my mom from Texas at Christmas time and it always amazes me when there isnt any snow ...I always remember being a kid and there always being snow at Christmas

On July 13th, 1995 the highest heat index ever recorded in the US occurred in Appleton WI: 148 degrees
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian /article.html?entrynum=36
looks look we got an ivan on the 18z GFS when ivan just developed into a td i found some pictures of the GFS model showing it recurving first out to sea then over the islands then over puerto rico then over hispanola then over cuba and bahamas then over cuba and florida but actually recurved into gulf shores alabama. 12z gfs showed the storm moving through the southern windwards then nw and north over puerto rico out to sea. 18z same track now over hispanola. similar to ivan in terms of developing in a low latitude and continous recurving shown only farther west each run. take notice to this guys
570. DFWjc
Quoting mossyhead:
But the blog rules say no bickering, but Dr. Masters know there will be. So whats the reason for the rules if the blogger himself encourages it. He can say he wants discussion, but he knows there will bickering.


Discussion yes, but the ignorant name calling and the lack of respect of other ideologies is another thing.

It's still okay to AGREE to DISAGREE...but we can all do it without being a you-know-what...IMHO
Here's my amateur opinion on the subject..

The Earth doesn't have a constant climate. Its been really really cold, and really really hot. In my opinion, we are in the period where temperatures are warming. However, I think eventually, it will cool down again..Maybe in my lifetime, maybe not.

JMO.
nothing wrong with GW posts when it is entered in Dr. Jeffs header. But as far as the politics is concerned it should be reported then ignored imo
Quoting txjac:


I always wanted to go to Seattle ...on my bucket list

You better go while you can, Seattle and the Pacific NW is 30yrs overdue on the BIG one.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's my amateur opinion on the subject..

The Earth doesn't have a constant climate. Its been really really cold, and really really hot. In my opinion, we are in the period where temperatures are warming. However, I think eventually, it will cool down again..Maybe in my lifetime, maybe not.

JMO.


Probably the most sensible post I've seen today!
Maria could cause quite a bit of trouble where its headed.
Quoting will40:
nothing wrong with GW posts when it is entered in Dr. Jeffs header. But as far as the politics is concerned it should be reported then ignored imo


AGW should be reported as politics.
Sonca coolest name for a storm ever :) !!!
Quoting WeatherWx:


AGW should be reported as politics.



well yes it leads to that eventually but the AGW is listed in the header so it is allowed
580. DFWjc
Is there a site to find out what position the planet's poles are currently at in degrees? I have a working theory that the planet over time (a long long time) has been shifting, thus the reason for more interesting weather phenomenon.
Political extreme wings are really a joke, bahhh!
Lefties using a wrong term explaining a scientific issue, and righties denying the obvious. GW is a wrong term and climate change is so true, as tomorrow is going to be the saturday yesterday.
Quoting TravisBickle:
Sonca coolest name for a storm ever :) !!!


Behind Typhoon Lionrock from last year in the Western Pacific. :-)
My best friend has a looooooot of family in Newfoundland, and she hails from there also. Their town of Clarenville, where she was born, was nearly leveled from Igor last year. Maria is growing in size like most hurricanes that reach that far north do, and she could be this year's Igor for Newfoundland. This woman is one persistent housewife.

And, I just checked the Royal Gazette (Bermuda periodical) and it says they sustained very minimal damage, with no reports coming in and only sporadic power outages. But that article also states that Maria hasn't yet attained Hurricane Status, and I also read on BerNews that a tree fell on someone's house due to a lightning strike.
Guys I can not tell you how beautiful it jst was outside after the rain and clouds cleared.It looked like something outside of a fairy tale!!.The rainbow that was just outside ws amazing!!.The clouds were a puffy pink orange and purple!!!.And with the sun setting at the same time it put on a awesome show!!!
Quoting MississippiWx:


Behind Typhoon Lionrock from last year in the Western Pacific. :-)


It was a severe tropical storm, not a typhoon.
Quoting will40:



well yes it leads to that eventually but the AGW is listed in the header so it is allowed


Al Gore at the helm. Who's on board?
587. JLPR2
I see both the GFS and EURO are on board with a possible CV storm in a few days.
They differ in track, but the important fact is that they both develop something.
I don't think our basin has been drier than past years...This is from 9/29/10..Nicole.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I like to talk weather, tropical or non tropical, I really do not like talking GW or Politics in person or on a blog, usually leads to arguments and hard feelings.
I don't either. I am trying to get used to the sound of President Perry however.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Sorry to hear that, how are you recovering? Bastrop has their first football game tonight since fire, alot of the firefighters etc will be there, should be a Nice Feeling time tonight in Bastrop. 1,544 homes destroyed but lots of homes were saved also. Almost all of the 6000 acre forrest in Bastrop was destroyed.


Doing better now, still finishing up on rebuilding some things. I was very blessed with alot of good friends from around the world who all helped me in different ways.
This might interest some of you -- if not, sorry for being slightly off topic ;)

Paper published today in Science has announced the first circumbinary exoplanet around nominally Sun-like stars... which is of course being hailed as the first step towards us finding a real Tatooine :)

Here's the story :) Enjoy :)
Where is Taz?
With Maria heading out, we return our focus to what's next?

Well we have a possible west caribbean system, and a possible tropical wave formation...

The Nogaps, which atatches to monsoonal developments likes for a storm to develop in the caribbean and would likely follow a weakness into the east gulf, and then turn NE into west florida or if the trough is amplified, into cuba. The canadian still hints at some development too, but these are both inaccurate models.

A tropical wave that is going to emerge off of Africa in the next day is forecasted by the Euro, GFS, Canadian, and Nogaps to form is looking like a possible caribbean runner. The storm is going to stay weak well into the central atlantic before beginning to organize and development, which will keep it west. Then it should form and head into the caribbean. The Bermuda High is forecasted to rebuild strong around this time, which will keep it westerly through the eastern caribbean, then a shortwave trough is forecasted to come through, but if "Ophelia/Philippe" is too far south then it would only feel a slight tug to the north which would bring it to around 15/16 N. Then the High could move back in and a westerly track would resume. A second trough over the plains around that time would likely pick it up, but at this point the storm would've gotten itself to deep into the caribbean to not affect land somewhere. This is just my take on a possibility, and we will get a more clear thinking of what will happen as the next 7 days roll on.
Quoting JupiterFL:
Where is Taz?


Last I heard, he was taking a shower.
595. txjac
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Doing better now, still finishing up on rebuilding some things. I was very blessed with alot of good friends from around the world who all helped me in different ways.


Friends like that ...you are very blessed
Quoting WeatherWx:


Last I heard, he was taking a shower.


Thanks
598. JLPR2
ADT analysis for Maria.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2011 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 36:01:27 N Lon : 64:57:49 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 974.3mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 3.5

Center Temp : -63.0C Cloud Region Temp : -60.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

I guess a bump in intensity is possible.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't think our basin has been drier than past years...This is from 9/29/10..Nicole.

oh god do you remember 2010 and the gulf death shear? after matthew the gulf filled up with 40 to 60 knot shear and boom paula got vaporized then richard after crossing the yucatan BOOM 60 knots. funny thing is the atlantic carribean and EVEN THE GOMEX are forecasted to be favorable for late september and early october..
Quoting WeatherWx:


Probably the most sensible post I've seen today!

It was actually pretty bad. He's nice guy but his opinion is based upon nothing of substance.
Finally, good deal of convection over Roke.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


We have done exceptionally well with producing internet technology over the past 40 years. And we did it all with Florida orange juice.

You're somehow equating global warming and technological advancement. We have done so well because we ditched the idea that some sky wizard working magic explains everything we don't understand. The advancement of science and technology is why we are doing so well today.

The planet also has not been warming for a "few hundred years". The warming began and accelerated during the last 150 years with most.


I think it's rather arrogant that people suppose that another hundred years or so of warming is bad when global warming is the very reason we have lived so well over the past several thousand years - since the last ice age.


Again, your attributing the success of our race incorrectly. Our success has depended on a lot more than just a warm planet. For example, many civilizations were wiped out due to local climate changes during the past several thousand years, along with many species. In fact, currently it seems like we are experiencing at least a minor extinction event with the number of species that have been disappearing as of late.

Considering our entire agricultural industry is based around relatively consistent climate norms, yes I would say any significant divergence from that norm is going to cause problems. Nor is it arrogant to think so.


I know that I might be oversimplifying it, but I think that we're staring at the models too much and not living as we should and adapting to this changing world.


Really? And how does one adapt when they have no idea what they need to be adapting to? One of the aspects of climate science is attempting to quantify what effects a changing climate will have on the planet.

Then there is the problem of sustainability, which still seems like problem a lot of people ignore.

You have to have an understanding of what is happening and why before you can make any plans of dealing with it.


Lets give it some time and see how it goes?


Um...no. Changes happening on a global scale are something that need to planned for. Waiting until the last minute will be far more expensive than taking steps ahead of time.


Besides, right now, our economy is far too low to absorb the kind of costs the AGW lobby is asking for.


There will never be a good time to do so. It will either be the economy is doing to poorly to take action now or the economy is doing well and we don't want to negatively impact it.


And with global terrorism and rogue nation dangers reaching heights never imagined before, it's too risky to be spending billions on what's effectively a climate experiment.


But it's okay to spend billions on security theater for something that kills far fewer people per year than diseases or natural disasters? What exactly are you trying to say here?

And what climate experiment are you referring to? I'm not aware of any global scale experiment that is anywhere close to being an implemented reality. Nor is it likely that one could be made considering the world political climate. That's why some people are watching this situation like Prometheus watches an incoming eagle.


An experiment that would have broad ranging ramifications for all people on earth.


As opposed to gigatons of pollutants and other trash we through about our planet? At least with climate preservation measures, we would clean up the planet a bit vs. continuing treating it like is was an infinite roll of toilet paper.


I know some people want to risk the lives of people so that we might go forward with this experiment, but me, I am not willing to assume that risk just yet.


And yet your willing to continue with the status quo? That reasoning doesn't make a whole lot of sense.


Wow, you're a trooper. I'm exhausted after today's blogging. It's like trying to reason with hurricane season.
Quoting DFWjc:
Is there a site to find out what position the planet's poles are currently at in degrees? I have a working theory that the planet over time (a long long time) has been shifting, thus the reason for more interesting weather phenomenon.
Yes, the magnetic field could flip at any time. It's consequences are totally unknown. Animals might migrate in the wrong direction causing mass extinctions.
Quoting Quadrantid:
This might interest some of you -- if not, sorry for being slightly off topic ;)

Paper published today in Science has announced the first circumbinary exoplanet around nominally Sun-like stars... which is of course being hailed as the first step towards us finding a real Tatooine :)

Here's the story :) Enjoy :)


Should note that I wrote the article I linked - so don't be too harsh with any criticism - I'm a fragile sort, you know ;)
Quoting txjac:


Friends like that ...you are very blessed


Yes, I agree. I've read the worst part of a house fire is losing photos etc.
Quoting JLPR2:
ADT analysis for Maria.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2011 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 36:01:27 N Lon : 64:57:49 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 974.3mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 3.5

Center Temp : -63.0C Cloud Region Temp : -60.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

I guess a bump in intensity is possible.


Not at 8PM, but probably 11PM.
Quoting DFWjc:
Is there a site to find out what position the planet's poles are currently at in degrees? I have a working theory that the planet over time (a long long time) has been shifting, thus the reason for more interesting weather phenomenon.

Which poles? The magnetic poles are shifting continuously to some degree, if that's the poles you're interested in.
608. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What do you mean bump in intensity?


You know, an increase in the winds to 80-85mph.
Quoting JLPR2:


You know, an increase in the winds to 80-85mph.


I revised my comment, at first I saw the drop in T-numbers from 4.7 to 3.5, and I thought you meant a decrease in intensity. That wasn't the final T-number though.
Quoting FrankZapper:
I don't either. I am trying to get used to the sound of President Perry however.


OK..
That is just plain old scary. And it has nothing to do with the environment or even left or right...
Steering currents are really weak in the WPAC. Guess this explains the higher amount of intense storms in that basin.
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N26°05'(26.1°)
E130°20'(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE560km(300NM)
SW390km(210NM)

Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°10'(26.2°)
E129°35'(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°10'(26.2°)
E128°55'(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°10'(26.2°)
E128°10'(128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
612. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I revised my comment, at first I saw the drop in T-numbers from 4.7 to 3.5, and I thought you meant a decrease in intensity. That wasn't the final T-number though.


Ha. Yeah, noticed that before posting it too.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011

...MARIA ACCELERATING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 65.0W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
614. DFWjc
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Yes, I agree. I've read the worst part of a house fire is losing photos etc.


My insurance agent came up with a great idea, he gives out 8GB USB thumb drives to have people scan all their documents and pictures and recommends to buy a fire proof safe to keep everything in(paper docs, thumb drive, etc). I bought a 32GB and have every little item i could copy that means something to me, just in case...
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Yes, I agree. I've read the worst part of a house fire is losing photos etc.


Yes, photos and treasured items that were passed down from family. I was told it would take time, it's like a death, and it is.
616. txjac
Quoting Quadrantid:


Should note that I wrote the article I linked - so don't be too harsh with any criticism - I'm a fragile sort, you know ;)


Congratulations, interesting article
617. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011

...MARIA ACCELERATING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 65.0W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


Yeah, kept at 75mph, and dang! Maria is moving fast.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Bastrop Fire Update and Drought Update:

Bastrop fire is now 75 percent contained, 1,544 homes destroyed that seems to be a final number hopefully? The last neighborhoods were opened today for people to see their homes destroyed or not destroyed. Power is starting to come on in some locations but it will be awhile before it is all restored.

The weather in South Central Texas has not changed much, temps are down some but the humidity is up which is good for the fires or future fires. But the Outlook here is about the same, much warmer than normal with little to no rain.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MID-SEPTEMBER NORMALS...BUT A WELCOME RELIEF
FROM THE RETURN OF TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS WE`VE HAD THIS PAST WEEK.

DESPITE THE HIGHER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL ACROSS THE
REGION...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE PALTRY. THE LACK OF ANY
GOOD/ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISMS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PRECLUDE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...TROUGHING AT
THE SURFACE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT QPF
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE`LL TAKE WHATEVER WE CAN GET


How is your daughter doing?
619. DFWjc
Quoting Birthmark:

Which poles? The magnetic poles are shifting continuously to some degree, if that's the poles you're interested in.


Sorry i should have said in detail the N and S poles, not the magnetic ones. I think a slight shift has cause certain areas of the planet to get certain weather that they normally haven't gotten in many millions of years. IMO
8:00PM Advisory
*Click image to magnify (image can further be magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)
621. JLPR2
ULL near 20N 58W continues to look interesting.
Quoting DFWjc:


Sorry i should have said in detail the N and S poles, not the magnetic ones. I think a slight shift has cause certain areas of the planet to get certain weather that they normally haven't gotten in many millions of years. IMO

This should get you started.

Btw, if you ever want to get dizzy just stop to think of how many different directions we're moving and how fast. lol
Quoting JLPR2:
ULL near 20N 58W continues to look interesting.


Remember, that is how Gert formed.
Quoting DFWjc:


My insurance agent came up with a great idea, he gives out 8GB USB thumb drives to have people scan all their documents and pictures and recommends to buy a fire proof safe to keep everything in(paper docs, thumb drive, etc). I bought a 32GB and have every little item i could copy that means something to me, just in case...


I kept all my paperwork in an old ammo box I had painted blue. I kept it in my standing freezer. The box was rusted, but all my papers inside were perfectly fine. Hint if you do this though, put the box on the side where the door opens. We had a heck of a time getting into the melted freezer to the side opposite the side where the door opens.
625. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Remember, that is how Gert formed.


Didn't Gert form from a piece of energy left behind by Emily? It was a ULL?
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I kept all my paperwork in an old ammo box I had painted blue. I kept it in my standing freezer. The box was rusted, but all my papers inside were perfectly fine. Hint if you do this though, put the box on the side where the door opens. We had a heck of a time getting into the melted freezer to the side opposite the side where the door opens.


Oh! My insurance guy told me fireproof boxes may survive, but if the temp of the fire is extremely high, the heat inside the fireproof box can be enough to disintergrate the papers.
627. DFWjc
Quoting Birthmark:

This should get you started.

Btw, if you ever want to get dizzy just stop to think of how many different directions we're moving and how fast. lol


Hey cool, thanks for that, it's a paper I've been writing for 3 years and hoping to get it published when I'm done. I have heard some people think I'm crazy, but I'm good at math and been crunching numbers and variables from whatever statistics i can find on weather.
628. JLPR2
Wouldn't it be interesting to see something like this:

Upper level low rapidly organizes and becomes tropical storm Ophelia. LOL!
629. DFWjc
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Oh! My insurance guy told me fireproof boxes may survive, but if the temp of the fire is extremely high, the heat inside the fireproof box can be enough to disintergrate the papers.


Okay, not to blow your mind, but my box is in another fire-proof box, so i'm thinking i'll be okay :)
Quoting JLPR2:


Didn't Gert form from a piece of energy left behind by Emily? It was a ULL?


Well, I believe the piece of Emily contributed, but the main reason for Gert's formation was that an Upper Level Low worked its way down to the surface, which is rare to say the least.
Quoting mossyhead:
But the blog rules say no bickering, but Dr. Masters know there will be. So whats the reason for the rules if the blogger himself encourages it. He can say he wants discussion, but he knows there will bickering.


I would imagine that he believes we are all mature enough to have a discussion without all of the bickering.

Climate Change, AGW, GW where is this storm going and when will it make its turn, what causes cloud formations, how hot is hot or whatever, all seems to lead to us just bickering amongst ourselves. Pick a topic. Any topic. We will find a way to bicker our way through it.

Some will leave because of this. Some will ignore it. Some will come back later. Perhaps a small show of maturity is all that is needed to make this great blog an excellent blog. ... There is nothing wrong with diversity and opposing opinions.

BTW, I have never "minused", "ignored", "poofed" or "reported" anyone here. I never will.
Quoting Quadrantid:
This might interest some of you -- if not, sorry for being slightly off topic ;)

Paper published today in Science has announced the first circumbinary exoplanet around nominally Sun-like stars... which is of course being hailed as the first step towards us finding a real Tatooine :)

Here's the story :) Enjoy :)

Excellent article. Thanks. I read a lot of science fiction as a kid, so became enamored of the idea of living under a double sun. I assumed--and later read--that the tidal pull between, and necessarily rapid rotations of, the binary stars would lead to grotesque equatorial bulges, with either or both members displaying a prominent oblate spheroidal shape, and with the primary member drawing plumes of gaseous matter from its companion. I've also read that, because of this imbalance and the abnormal transfer of matter, binary systems would be unstable and thus only to last for a relatively short time. I'm sure a lot would have to do with the mass of the members, their sizes relative to each other, their relative ages, and, of course, the distance between them and eccentricity of their orbits.

Anyway, again: excellent. That's amazing...
Quoting DFWjc:


Okay, not to blow your mind, but my box is in another fire-proof box, so i'm thinking i'll be okay :)


People laughed at mine in the freezer, until they found out all my papers were safe. If it works, that's all that counts.
Quoting DFWjc:


Sorry i should have said in detail the N and S poles, not the magnetic ones. I think a slight shift has cause certain areas of the planet to get certain weather that they normally haven't gotten in many millions of years. IMO


Just how slight is your proposed shift?
Quoting DFWjc:


Hey cool, thanks for that, it's a paper I've been writing for 3 years and hoping to get it published when I'm done. I have heard some people think I'm crazy, but I'm good at math and been crunching numbers and variables from whatever statistics i can find on weather.

Then you might want to have a look at this link, too:
Link
I see we've (the blog) has calmed down since this afternoon. During hurricane season I keep it up in the background at work. Busy day and ate lunch late and look in to see what was happening. Was actually shocked to see what was going on and left.
637. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Well, I believe the piece of Emily contributed, but the main reason for Gert's formation was that an Upper Level Low worked its way down to the surface, which is rare to say the least.


Ah I see, then Emily's energy probably moistened the ULL. The one close to 20N and 58W is at that step of the transition progress, but as you said it is rare to make the jump.


Several more days of silly arguments because of no activity.
639. DFWjc
Quoting Birthmark:

Then you might want to have a look at this link, too:
Link


Thanks as well, wow, thanks guys/girls for all the help for my research, glad i've got the weekend off to read.


Nothin.
Quoting twincomanche:


Several more days of silly arguments because of no activity.


+
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hmm..

Good evening. Interesting.
So I was wondering... seems like several of this season's storms have actually intensified while moving away from the tropics. Anybody have an explanation? TIA.
Receiving rain bands from Maria in Nova Scotia at 9:36p atlantic time.
Plymouth State Weather:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 72W-84W IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. WITHIN THIS
AREA OF WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
FOCUSED S OF 15N WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE
FAR SW BASIN EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS COSTA RICO...PANAMA...AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS FEATURE IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ENTERING THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 64W. AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE
SW BASIN WILL LIFT N OVER THE NEXT 24-36...HOURS WITH INCREASING
CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.
Quoting floodzonenc:
So I was wondering... seems like several of this season's storms have actually intensified while moving away from the tropics. Anybody have an explanation? TIA.
Less wind shear?
649. jpsb
Quoting AegirsGal:
Thought the same thing when we were told by the government that 'some industries' were too big to fail...what a crock of crap. If a business fails, it fails.
+1000


It's been either feast or famine with rain in a lot of areas. I hope TX is getting some of the wet stuff, finally, at least somewhere.
So far this year I think we in ECFL are a little low.

The Cape Verde Wave Factory is in production mode.
Quoting jpsb:
+1000
What part of this don't some understand?
From Levi's blog

Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, given that most any other blog I would write this in is either banned or cleared out by it's owner, or, just a place I don't want to be (TheMain), I hope it is okay to do so here.

Levi, best of luck to you and your meteorological future. I think you have a certain aptitude found only in a very few.

This is goodbye as I shall not be around WU any more. Besides the goofs by admin, TheMain is simply overrun by inanity, trolls, and holier-than-though preachers of AGW. And it all starts with WU, itself, though, which I blame for the degradation of what was once a splendid forum by "leading" by example and allowing the worst while banning the best.

Postings by myself, and all others, are free content for WU. This free content provides hits for ad dollars, besides just hits by the poster. With no, or infrequent, posts, no dollars. (In no way am I encouraging you, Levi, to do anything different, here.)

I have decided that I can no longer, in good conscience, continue to provide WU with any more free content for them to make money from. (Not that I was ever that prolific in doing so, but zero is what they'll get from here on).

Good to know most of you. I may be found at gulf coast wx, from time to time. (see google)

Cheers.


Bye atmo, and I agree, it would be nice if we had better site maintenance.

I won't be leaving the site, but I will be posting here a lot less and no longer doing blogs. It's a big time suck for me and I really don't enjoy posting that much anymore. My posts have been minused so much that the filter hides all of my posts, the number of trolls rises exponentially day by day, and honest discussions seem to be impossible to find nowadays.
From Levi's blog

Quoting quasigeostropic:
I'm thinking of echoing atmoaggie as well. I'm just providing WU free advertising to their AGW agenda. I am taking down all my tutorials and let WU get free advertisement elsewhere. It was nice back in the days when AGW wasn't crammed down our throats every other blog by Jeff Masters(I've been here since 2005). Now the AGW trolls are in full force, using the rating system here to pull down skeptics(even myself). I will not continue supporting this site for it being dishonest(false claims about AGW), and being apathetic to trolls that name-call and disrespect skeptic's opinions. I will no longer tolerate a site that caters to bad science.

Back in the days, this site was NUMBER 1! Now it's an ego-contest, dishonest, and disrespectful. To all those who made WU great, I salute you!



Wishing you the best Levi!


There are trolls on both sides of the debate. Posts get minused on both sides of the debate. Neapolitan and I were some of the first posters to get negged into the abyss. Some troll used a script to minus all of our posts into oblivion. This is why even though some people try to plus my posts everyday to get me unfiltered, my posts still get filtered out. So please, don't give me that finger pointing stuff, both sides have their share.

Also, if you still haven't figured out what the greenhouse gas effect is, then that's your problem. We could argue the amount of influence humans have on global temperatures all day (since to what extent that is, is unknown), but to deny that we are contributing is absurd.

Besides, nearly all the "agenda" that AGW promotes would promote a better future for us and our offspring. Minimizing or eliminating foreign oil dependency, using more renewable energies, cleaning up the environment, reducing our usage of everything, reusing more, and recycling more are all ideas "preached" by the AGW crowd, and they are all legitimately smart ideas which would help with the environment and well-being of society as a whole. The only problem is right now our economy can't afford these ideas. Still, it is no reason to shoot these ideas down, it just means they will have to wait.

later, alec
Up to 70kts.

AL, 14, 2011091600, , BEST, 0, 368N, 649W, 70, 984, HU
657. jpsb
Quoting DFWjc:


Hey cool, thanks for that, it's a paper I've been writing for 3 years and hoping to get it published when I'm done. I have heard some people think I'm crazy, but I'm good at math and been crunching numbers and variables from whatever statistics i can find on weather.
Could you WU mail me the link to your paper? I would love to read it but not tonight, need to go to bed soon. TIA
Maria is off to extra-tropical-land

It will be interesting to see if Dr. Masters has comment of all these people from different perspectives that appear to be leaving this blog.
I, for one, am not leaving. I agree with most of what atmo is saying, but leaving would mean loosing the friendships that have brought me some joy in here.

Here is my take. It takes all kinds to make up the collective. I don't have to agree with you and you don't have to agree with me. I wan't to be in here with all of you, so I can be informed from all directions.

Here is my plea. Please feel free to talk, argue and disagree, but please stop the disrespect, bullying and fighting.

And for the weather, the sunsets in North Florida have been incredible this week. Kind of glade nobody is getting pounded by a named storm. :)

661. jpsb
Quoting Neapolitan:

Excellent article. Thanks. I read a lot of science fiction as a kid, so became enamored of the idea of living under a double sun. I assumed--and later read--that the tidal pull between, and necessarily rapid rotations of, the binary stars would lead to grotesque equatorial bulges, with either or both members displaying a prominent oblate spheroidal shape, and with the primary member drawing plumes of gaseous matter from its companion. I've also read that, because of this imbalance and the abnormal transfer of matter, binary systems would be unstable and thus only to last for a relatively short time. I'm sure a lot would have to do with the mass of the members, their sizes relative to each other, their relative ages, and, of course, the distance between them and eccentricity of their orbits.

Anyway, again: excellent. That's amazing...
Back when the Earth was young and the Moon recently formed after the Earth collided with Thea (a mars sized planet) the Moon was only 20,000 miles from Earth and tides were over 1000 feet! Tidal waves would wash over entire continents. Talk about surfs up, lol. Things stayed that way for millions of years. Sadly one day our moon will leave us and drift out to ether collide with Mars or Jupiter or Saturn.
662. DFWjc
Quoting jpsb:
Could you WU mail me the link to your paper? I would love to read it but not tonight, need to go to bed soon. TIA


Sorry, it's not typed yet, it's penciled on a old wired bound paper. Everytime i get a idea or wanna jot down notes it so much easier to be "offline" with it...
663. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
It will be interesting to see if Dr. Masters has comment of all these people from different perspectives that appear to be leaving this blog.


Why would he? Part of what is going on around here is what is wrong with the world today ...tolerance and respect.

If you see the post is about something that you are not agreeable with - take the day off. Or read through and just ignore it - kind of like I do with the troll posts, or the troll spray posts, etc.

In between it all there has been talk of the weather and that can be commented on if you come here.

I read it all, + many posts that I think are worth it and skip what I dont like.
664. txjac
Personaly I feel priveledged to be part of this community. So many here I admire. I truly respect all and consider those here part of some kind of family of mine





Storm Relative 16km Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery

Time of Latest Image: 201109152345
666. jpsb
Quoting twincomanche:
What part of this don't some understand?
Well unions really hate it when they lose a lot of union jobs and unions are a very important voting block for one of the parties.
looks like we are comming out of a lull now gonna get very busy soon
Quoting txjac:


Why would he? Part of what is going on around here is what is wrong with the world today ...tolerance and respect.

If you see the post is about something that you are not agreeable with - take the day off. Or read through and just ignore it - kind of like I do with the troll posts, or the troll spray posts, etc.

In between it all there has been talk of the weather and that can be commented on if you come here.

I read it all, + many posts that I think are worth it and skip what I dont like.
You are probably right. However when you start restricting free speech (banning) then you no longer can say that anything goes as far as opinion. Then you probably have some obligation if you are going to have some credibility to explain your thinking. That's all. He doesn't have to tell us anything.
Quoting FrankZapper:
I don't either. I am trying to get used to the sound of President Perry however.

Why, because MSNBC, FOX, et al insinuated you should? Please turn off the TV.
671. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
You are probably right. However when you start restricting free speech (banning) then you no longer can say that anything goes as far as opinion. Then you probably have some obligation if you are going to have some credibility to explain your thinking. That's all. He doesn't have to tell us anything.


Maybe I missed something but I didnt realize that people recently were banned for opinions contrary to others ...I saw some leaving though and wish that they will be back after they cool down
Quoting jpsb:
Back when the Earth was young and the Moon recently formed after the Earth collided with Thea (a mars sized planet) the Moon was only 20,000 miles from Earth and tides were over 1000 feet! Tidal waves would wash over entire continents. Talk about surfs up, lol. Things stayed that way for millions of years. Sadly one day our moon will leave us and drift out to ether collide with Mars or Jupiter or Saturn.


Yes. I heard that our moon will be leaving us. I think it must have heard that our sun may one day occupy this block of the neighborhood. Another neighborhood would look rather appealing, about that time. ;-)
Quoting txjac:


Maybe I missed something but I didnt realize that people recently were banned for opinions contrary to others ...I saw some leaving though and wish that they will be back after they cool down
Think to the contrary.
Quoting twincomanche:
It will be interesting to see if Dr. Masters has comment of all these people from different perspectives that appear to be leaving this blog.


I've been considering it myself...I lurked here for several years before joining, and I for one can tell you the blog has really deteriorated over the past few years. Its become filled with trolls, and people who have no respect for one another.

Not leaving yet, but..
Quoting Chicklit:


It's been either feast or famine with rain in a lot of areas. I hope TX is getting some of the wet stuff, finally, at least somewhere.
So far this year I think we in ECFL are a little low.

The Cape Verde Wave Factory is in production mode.


I agree, this rainy season was nothing special at all here in ECFL, though I understand South Florida has received pretty plentiful rainfall as of late. Now, the "rainy season", such that it was, seems to be more or less finished.
676. txjac
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes. I heard that our moon will be leaving us. I think it must have heard that our sun may one day occupy this block of the neighborhood. Another neighborhood would look rather appealing, about that time. ;-)


Interesting ...I didnt realize or had never heard that our moon would be leaving us ...guess I need to read more or differnt things




Global Climate Change Indicators


National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climatic Data Center


Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming.

It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans.

These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change.

A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.




Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.
Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.

Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.



678. jpsb
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes. I heard that our moon will be leaving us. I think it must have heard that our sun may one day occupy this block of the neighborhood. Another neighborhood would look rather appealing, about that time. ;-)
Yeah one day the Sun will go red giant and global warming is going to be a real b****h.
679. DFWjc
Quoting txjac:


Interesting ...I didnt realize or had never heard that our moon would be leaving us ...guess I need to read more or differnt things


The moon is moving away at a rate of about 1 1/2 inches..or...3.8 centimeters per year.
681. jpsb
Quoting txjac:


Interesting ...I didnt realize or had never heard that our moon would be leaving us ...guess I need to read more or differnt things
The moon is receding at a rate of about 1 inch per year, not sure when it leaves Earths orbit but it will happen.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I've been considering it myself...I lurked here for several years before joining, and I for one can tell you the blog has really deteriorated over the past few years. Its become filled with trolls, and people who have no respect for one another.

Not leaving yet, but..
Me neither.
683. txjac
Quoting DFWjc:


The moon is moving away at a rate of about 1 1/2 inches..or...3.8 centimeters per year.


Moving away? Out of its orbit? Or is the orbit enlarging? I'm trying to see what is going on in my mind ...trying to get a mental picture
Quoting jpsb:
Yeah one day the Sun will go red giant and global warming is going to be a real b****h.


It will be toasty and there will be no doubt where the extra heat is coming from. Fortunately, we have a couple of days left to pack our bags. ;-)
Quoting twincomanche:
Less wind shear?


I was wondering... I have learned from this blog that the 2 biggest inhibitors of strengthening are wind shear and dry air. Is wind shear usually greater in the tropics than in the mid-latitudes, or is that just the pattern for this season?

I'm sorry bout all the questions. I teach science and plan to become a met when I retire from teaching (and thus can better afford to do so).

Thanks twin and everyone else who takes the time to help others. :)
Quoting vince1:

Concurred and plussed...his father was a subject of Kenya. Both parents need citizenship to confer natural born status to their offspring, which is why Jindal and Rubio are also ineligible.

Please, someone try to belittle me with a tiresome "birther" or "racist" insult.
This is so stupid. The rule is if you are born here you can be a citizen it doesn't matter where your parents are from. Doesn't anyone bother to check the facts before they post anymore?
Quoting floodzonenc:


I was wondering... I have learned from this blog that the 2 biggest inhibitors of strengthening are wind shear and dry air. Is wind shear usually greater in the tropics than in the mid-latitudes, or is that just the pattern for this season?

I'm sorry bout all the questions. I teach science and plan to become a met when I retire from teaching (and thus can better afford to do so).

Thanks twin and everyone else who takes the time to help others. :)


I would think that would be this season only...but I may be wrong.
689. jpsb
Quoting txjac:


Interesting ...I didnt realize or had never heard that our moon would be leaving us ...guess I need to read more or differnt things
Another interesting fact that a lot of people don't know is that the Sun is getting brighter. Every billion years the sun increases it's brightness by 10%. So well mankind are going to be dealing with Global Warming one way or another with or without CO2 worries. I've read that in 400 or 500 million years the Earth will be to hot for life to exist. So we need to get started building those super big super fast space ships.
Quoting txjac:


Moving away? Out of its orbit? Or is the orbit enlarging? I'm trying to see what is going on in my mind ...trying to get a mental picture


The orbit of our moon will expand to the point that Earth's gravity will no longer be able to maintain a gravitational pull on it. Our moon will begin its separate voyage through the solar system.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


The orbit of our moon will expand to the point that Earth's gravity will no longer be able to maintain a gravitational pull on it. Our moon will begin its separate voyage through the solar system.
Be calm. It isn't happening next week. LOL.
692. DFWjc
Quoting txjac:


Moving away? Out of its orbit? Or is the orbit enlarging? I'm trying to see what is going on in my mind ...trying to get a mental picture


Is the moon moving farther away from Earth? And if so what effects will this have on the Earth and why is this happening?

So is the moon moving away from the Earth? Yes indeed it is, the moon’s orbit is moving approximately 1.5 inches or 3.8 centimeters away from the earth per year.

Why is this happening? The reason why the moon is moving away is because of Earth’s tides. This tidal effect causes the moon to spiral outward which also decreases the moons rotation. It decreased the rotation so much that now the moon only shows one face of its surface to Earth.

What are the effects of this?

The effects of the moon getting farther away from Earth could mean many things. One of them is lower high tides and higher low tides. And most things in the ocean would die. Since without these tides there would no ocean currents and without currents the food chain would be disrupted so unless the organisms in the ocean could find something else to eat they would all die.

Read more: http://scienceray.com/astronomy/the-moon-is-leavin g-earth/#ixzz1Y4fSLQmZ
Quoting twincomanche:
Be calm. It isn't happening next week. LOL.


I believe in being prepared. I bought a moonlight lamp. .... Just waiting to use that baby!
694. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
Be calm. It isn't happening next week. LOL.


He was answering a question that I had ...I feel so uninformed as I hadnt heard this info before ...or if I had I have forgotten it ..happy that I wont be here to see it
Quoting twincomanche:
This is so stupid. The rule is if you are born here you can be a citizen it doesn't matter where your parents are from. Doesn't anyone bother to check the facts before they post anymore?


To my knowledge, neither parent has to have citizenship as long as you are born in the US. Not taking a side one way or the other, just stating a fact.
8:00PM Advisory
*Click image to magnify (image can further be magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)
697. jpsb
Quoting txjac:


Moving away? Out of its orbit? Or is the orbit enlarging? I'm trying to see what is going on in my mind ...trying to get a mental picture
The orbit is enlarging. Tidal pull is draining energy from the two body system, as the system loses energy the moon drifts further away. Also the Earth rotation slows, back in the day, an Earth day was only 4 hours.
"Since without these tides there would no ocean currents and without currents the food chain would be disrupted."

Why?
Quoting jpsb:
Another interesting fact that a lot of people don't know is that the Sun is getting brighter. Every billion years the sun increases it's brightness by 10%. So well mankind are going to be dealing with Global Warming one way or another with or without CO2 worries. I've read that in 400 or 500 million years the Earth will be to hot for life to exist. So we need to get started building those super big super fast space ships.

It's too late already.
We're DOOMED as of next year.
An Aztec Scribe said so.
So it MUST be true. After all, they also invented Dark Chocolate. Wise people, them Aztec.
700. DFWjc
Quoting twincomanche:
"Since without these tides there would no ocean currents and without currents the food chain would be disrupted."

Why?


Watch Finding Nemo, LOL!
Quoting AvidWeatherHound:


To my knowledge, neither parent has to have citizenship as long as you are born in the US. Not taking a side one way or the other, just stating a fact.
We agree.
Quoting DFWjc:


Watch Finding Nemo, LOL!


Hey Mr Grump Gills
You know what you gotta do when life gets you down?
Just keep swimming
Just keep swimming
Just keep swimming swimming swimming
What do we do we swim, swim, swim
OH HO HO How I love to swim
When you WAAAAAANNTTT to swim you want to swim
It is sad to see so many either banned, minused, and voluntarily leaving WU. The solution as I see it is to get rid of the childish rating system and bushwacking banning system and have ALL posts visible. If a poster breaks the Blog's rules he is 1st warned by admin to clean up his act and then if needed gets a ban. Also either allow or don't allow off tropical comments. If you allow the AGW stuff on Dr Master days only that makes no sense to me. AGW leads to political, bickering, chaos on ANY day.

Finally I would ban the use of the word TROLL on the blog. Any discussion of who is or is not a troll, and bragging that one has a certain # of trolls on ignore would be off limits too. Let ADMIN be the judge of who is a troll.It is TROLLISH to engage in that kind of talk.

And if you are too thin skinned hit the road.

Well, sorry for the rant.Just trying to make the blog a better place.

Good luck to recent departures in their futures
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I believe in being prepared. I bought a moonlight lamp. .... Just waiting to use that baby!


You and twin have me rolling!
Sorry twincom i'm new here and didn't realized quote wouldn't show what you were quoting. I was agreeing with you though :)
Quoting pottery:

It's too late already.
We're DOOMED as of next year.
An Aztec Scribe said so.
So it MUST be true. After all, they also invented Dark Chocolate. Wise people, them Aztec.
Thanks Pot. Uplifting message for tonight.LOL.
Quoting Patrap:




Global Climate Change Indicators


National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climatic Data Center


Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming.

It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans.

These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change.

A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.




Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.
Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.

Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.



Are u gunna share that thing in your hand :)
708. txjac
Finally I would ban the use of the word TROLL on the blog. Any discussion of who is or is not a troll, and bragging that one has a certain # of trolls on ignore would be off limits too. Let ADMIN be the judge of who is a troll.It is TROLLISH to engage in that kind of talk.

And if you are too thin skinned hit the road.


Couldnt agree with you more!!!!
Here,,admin is NOT in real time as stated in the Community Standards above right, of every comment section.



WunderBlogAdmin

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by wunderground employees to interact with bloggers.

This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans.

As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time.

Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.


For questions about these rules please contact WunderBlogAdmin.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #49
TROPICAL STORM ROKE (T1115)
9:50 AM JST September 16 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Roke (985 hPa) located at 26.3N 130.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 26.2N 129.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 26.2N 128.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 26.2N 128.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Quoting twincomanche:
Thanks Pot. Uplifting message for tonight.LOL.

Yer welcome!

Had some showers today, and might get some more tonight.
A nice break from the recent Dread Heat.....
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM SONCA (T1116)
9:00 AM JST September 16 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea Near Minami tori Shima

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sonca (1002 hPa) located at 23.0N 152.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 24.6N 147.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 29.2N 142.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 34.1N 143.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
713. jpsb
Quoting twincomanche:
"Since without these tides there would no ocean currents and without currents the food chain would be disrupted."

Why?
I think weather would keep currents going, but with out a moon the Earth would wobble on it's axis, that would certainly get the currents going and lots of other stuff too. No more dependable seasons for one. The moon is a big part of the reason life (us) are happy (mostly) on Earth.
708. txjac


+ 1000
Quoting txjac:


Why would he? Part of what is going on around here is what is wrong with the world today ...tolerance and respect.

If you see the post is about something that you are not agreeable with - take the day off. Or read through and just ignore it - kind of like I do with the troll posts, or the troll spray posts, etc.

In between it all there has been talk of the weather and that can be commented on if you come here.

I read it all, + many posts that I think are worth it and skip what I dont like.
Very strongly agree.
Quoting Patrap:
Here,,admin is NOT in real time as stated in the Community Standards above right, of every comment section.



WunderBlogAdmin

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by wunderground employees to interact with bloggers.

This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans.

As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time.

Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.


For questions about these rules please contact WunderBlogAdmin.


IMO, they really need one, or a couple.
Here is a good book that might answer some questions.

I got minused into oblivion earlier and I was the one being called names. Go figure. I still love this place tho! Where else can you find out about potential weather events way before the media has caught on to them> Not just 'canes but winter storms and Tornado warnings, all kinds of stuff.
719. jpsb
Quoting pottery:

It's too late already.
We're DOOMED as of next year.
An Aztec Scribe said so.
So it MUST be true. After all, they also invented Dark Chocolate. Wise people, them Aztec.
Lol, I want my dark chocolate NOW!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


IMO, they really need one, or a couple.
I agree. This is a major blog on the internet. Even if it were a volunteer crew it would be good to have someone here to monitor this mess with rules that someone could understand.
Who has left the blog...and where have they gone to? Pardon my lateness lol.
After looking ugly all her life Marie has gussied herself up and become a hurricane! Go, girl! But go south of the Avalon peninsula and leave St. Johns alone!
723. txjac
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


IMO, they really need one, or a couple.


I kind of like it without ...
Even though we are not all of the "adult" age we all here have "adult" maturity ...it's just whether we act that way.

I dont want someone constantly over my shoulder ..I know how to behave and how to respect ...and I see a great deal of that in the people that post here. We are all human and have off days ...just move on.

I love this place ..only place that I can go where someone doesnt ask what you're wearing or what color your panties are ...
Quoting AvidWeatherHound:


To my knowledge, neither parent has to have citizenship as long as you are born in the US. Not taking a side one way or the other, just stating a fact.
Who cares anymore? Like him or not he's gone next year.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Who cares anymore? Like him or not he's gone next year.
Has nothing to do with BO.
726. jpsb
I have probably been on the internet longer then anyone here (ex NASA) so I would offer this advise, never do personal attacks, never take anything personal, treat others with respect, stay on topic and if all else fails ignore them. Simple really.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Who has left the blog...and where have they gone to? Pardon my lateness lol.


Errr..don't really know of a lot besides atmomaggie...
729. txjac
Quoting jpsb:
I have probably been on the internet longer then anyone here (ex NASA) so I would offer this advise, never do personal attacks, never take anything personal, treat others with respect, stay on topic and if all else fails ignore them. Simple really.



Awesome advice ...works well in the non-internet world as well!
730. DFWjc
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Errr..don't really know of a lot besides atmomaggie...


he's taking his talents to the SEC next year i bet...
SEC to Aux on the Panel Pete.
Quoting Patrap:
SEC to Aux on the Panel Pete.
?
733. DFWjc
Quoting Patrap:
SEC to Aux on the Panel Pete.


(small snicker)
Most NASA Buffs get dat un..LoL

Quoting Patrap:
SEC to Aux on the Panel Pete.

"SEC" in my world is the Securities and Exchange Commission; I don't understand anything more except for "to", "on" and "the".
Looking back here is a partial answer to Neapolitan's question about the length of time a system has been a tropical storm, without breaks. No intervening weakening to a depression, no strengthening to a hurricane.

Tropical storm Fay became a tropical storm at 5 p.m. August 15, 2008. And maintained that status through 8 p.m. (7 p.m. CDT) August 23. 195 hours, and then weakened to a depression after her eighth landfall.

Tropical storm Marie was a tropical storm for exactly the same length of time, from 11 a.m. September 7 though 2 p.m. September 15. 195 hours. Then became a hurricane.

Here is Fay's advisory archive.

Fay and Marie share the record for the past few years for storms with the longest duration at tropical storm strength.
738. DFWjc
Quoting Bielle:

"SEC" in my world is the Securities and Exchange Commission; I don't understand anything more except for "to", "on" and "the".


hint.... Tom Hanks...spaaaace
Quoting Patrap:
SEC to Aux on the Panel Pete.
Is this an inside roadie joke? Don't get it.
Taz, you still out there?
In a way its easier with so many comments about fighting and whatnot. I can just look back and see a few weather posts.

If all the comments were relevant I'd never get through them!
742. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:
Is this an inside roadie joke? Don't get it.


uh Houston, we have a problem....
Quoting twincomanche:
Taz, you still out there?




i come on when evere i feel like it



am lurking
Quoting DFWjc:


hint.... Tom Hanks...spaaaace


At the risk of alienating everyone, and without resorting to Wikipedia, who is Tom Hanks, and what does he have to do with space?
Apollo 12 got hit by Lightening as they Launched thru a T-Storm and the Bolts ran down the contrail to the Pad from the Saturn 5.


SEC to AUX was the command to reset the Panel that got knocked off line from the strike.


Al Bean actually threw the switch after the S-1 Staging that kept them from a Abort mode.


746. DFWjc
Quoting Bielle:


At the risk of alienating everyone, and without resorting to Wikipedia, who is Tom Hanks, and what does he have to do with space?


really? haven't you seen any movies with Tom Hanks in space?
Hi Taz :)
Hiya Taz,,lurking is a good thing sometimes to observe the flow and all.
Quoting jpsb:
I think weather would keep currents going, but with out a moon the Earth would wobble on it's axis, that would certainly get the currents going and lots of other stuff too. No more dependable seasons for one. The moon is a big part of the reason life (us) are happy (mostly) on Earth.

Actually, it's the Oceans that Moderate and to some extent CREATE the weather.
Without a Moon, tides would be drastically affected, and there would be no mixing of different ocean waters.
The Gulf Stream would shut down (along with all other ocean currents).

The oceans would become virtually stagnant.
They would lose MOST of the life in them.
750. DFWjc
Quoting Patrap:
Apollo 12 got hit by Lightening as they Launched thru a T-Storm and the Bolts ran down the contrail to the Pad from the Saturn 5.


SEC to AUX was the command to reset the Panel that got knocked off line from the strike.


Al Bean actually threw the switch after the S-1 Staging that kept them from a Abort mode.




i was trying to get the apollo part in....i figured someone would of gotten it by now...
Quoting Tazmanian:




i come on when evere i feel like it



am lurking
Glad you haven't left.
752. DFWjc
Quoting Tazmanian:




i come on when evere i feel like it



am lurking


we miss you Taz...just not as exciting without ya...
Quoting DFWjc:


i was trying to get the apollo part in....i figured someone would of gotten it by now...


DFWjc...you were on it
I never use the Buttons,,period.


They a distinct distraction in every way
757. jpsb
Quoting pottery:

Actually, it's the Oceans that Moderate and to some extent CREATE the weather.
Without a Moon, tides would be drastically affected, and there would be no mixing of different ocean waters.
The Gulf Stream would shut down (along with all other ocean currents).

The oceans would become virtually stagnant.
They would lose MOST of the life in them.
Perhaps, I am unconvinced, but we can have that debate an other day. Time for bed, nite all.
8:00PM Advisory
*Click image to magnify (image can further be magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)
Quoting Patrap:
Apollo 12 got hit by Lightening as they Launched thru a T-Storm and the Bolts ran down the contrail to the Pad from the Saturn 5.


SEC to AUX was the command to reset the Panel that got knocked off line from the strike.


Al Bean actually threw the switch after the S-1 Staging that kept them from a Abort mode.




Thank you. With your explanation, and a little time on Wikipedia (Signal Conditioning Equipment (SCE)), I now get the denotation. You patience is appreciated.
I uploaded a new portrait pic last night, and it is still waiting for approval. Just my face. When I uploaded the pic I have now it was approved in less than 20 minutes. New pic just says "approval pending"

Does that kind of delay happen often?
761. txjac
Quoting jpsb:
Perhaps, I am unconvinced, but we can have that debate an other day. Time for bed, nite all.


Good night ...enjoyed your conversation this evening
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I uploaded a new portrait pic last night, and it is still waiting for approval. Just my face. When I uploaded the pic I have now it was approved in less than 20 minutes. New pic just says "approval pending"

Does that kind of delay happen often?


No.
Quoting Patrap:


DFWjc...you were on it
<<------------PPP :)
Quoting txjac:


Good night ...enjoyed your conversation this evening
Me too. See ya all.
Oh lord.Now the blog is having the time of day/year where everyone is preaching that they are leaving or they are staying and how bad the blog is getting over the years.Personally me commenting less is a sign of something.I just won't say what it is.
Quoting DFWjc:


really? haven't you seen any movies with Tom Hanks in space?


I saw the first Harry Potter movie, and the one before that was the second Star Wars. I gather Tom Hanks is an actor.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No.



Hmmmm. I just sent them a note asking why. Oh well.
Quoting Bielle:


Thank you. With your explanation, and a little time on Wikipedia (Signal Conditioning Equipment (SCE)), I now get the denotation. You patience is appreciated.


Its a fine Weather,engineering story to be sure.

Enjoy this look back from the HBO series ,,as that happened,from the "actors"
any ideas where that new storm might go?
give me a break!
Um yeah if anybody wants to talk about anything about any problems on the main blog and what to do about it come over to my blog.
772. DFWjc
Quoting Bielle:


I saw the first Harry Potter movie, and the one before that was the second Star Wars. I gather Tom Hanks is an actor.


(mouth hits the floor) Yes, he is....
Quoting Patrap:
I never use the Buttons,,period.


They a distinct distraction in every way
And adding the tally next to them only makes things worse. Bad idea.

(Gee, I hope what I just said was liked, maybe a plus 10 ) :)
I believe Tom Hanks is best known for "Bachelor Party" back in 1984. He may have been in some movies since. ;)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Looking back here is a partial answer to Neapolitan's question about the length of time a system has been a tropical storm, without breaks. No intervening weakening to a depression, no strengthening to a hurricane.

Tropical storm Fay became a tropical storm at 5 p.m. August 15, 2008. And maintained that status through 8 p.m. (7 p.m. CDT) August 23. 195 hours, and then weakened to a depression after her eighth landfall.

Tropical storm Marie was a tropical storm for exactly the same length of time, from 11 a.m. September 7 though 2 p.m. September 15. 195 hours. Then became a hurricane.

Here is Fay's advisory archive.

Fay and Marie share the record for the past few years for storms with the longest duration at tropical storm strength.

That'll work. Thanks. So perhaps it's not as rare as I thought for a storm to stay at TS strength for so long. Still, I don't imagine it's exactly commonplace, either...
i love my new Toshiba
Quoting Neapolitan:

That'll work. Thanks. So perhaps it's not as rare as I thought for a storm to stay at TS strength for so long. Still, I don't imagine it's exactly commonplace, either...


I'm not gonna say there hasn't been a tropical storm that stayed a tropical storm continuously for longer than that. To be honest I just went back a couple years. Could be a good question to email to the NHC.
778. DFWjc
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I believe Tom Hanks is best known for "Bachelor Party" back in 1984. He may have been in some movies since. ;)


Quoting Bielle:


I saw the first Harry Potter movie, and the one before that was the second Star Wars. I gather Tom Hanks is an actor.


Tom Hanks is an actor. The references have been towards his starring role in the movie, "Apollo 13". This is an excellent movie that chronicles the events of Apollo 13 and our nearly losing 3 astronauts on their way to a moon landing. .. A movie that is well done and worth watching. Directed by Ron Howard.
780. DFWjc
Quoting Tazmanian:
i love my new Toshiba


what model did you get, i'm in the market for a new portable, my sony is 3 yrs old
Quoting DFWjc:




Thank you. I rather gathered that. :)
Quoting Tazmanian:
give me a break!


?
DFWjc 778 *snicker*
Quoting Tazmanian:
i love my new Toshiba


I thought you got an Acer. I just got a Toshiba Net Book for my birthday and I am loving it!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


?



nevere mine
Quoting AvidWeatherHound:


I thought you got an Acer. I just got a Toshiba Net Book for my birthday and I am loving it!




Acer LOL i took it right back and got me a Toshiba
Toshiba rocks
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


How is your daughter doing?
My daughter is doing well, after 8 days she had water and electricity, her log cabin survived. My ex is living in a mobile home about 20 miles away, someone gave her free furniture in Austin. Things are getting better every day.
Quoting twincomanche:
"Since without these tides there would no ocean currents and without currents the food chain would be disrupted."

Why?
that statement may have a little truth to it, but ocean currents certainly won't stop and it won't cause ecosystems to collapse, although coastal marine environments could be impacted fairly significantly.

Even without the moon, the sun accounts for some of our tides. Therefore tides would not cease to exist. Also, deep ocean currents are primarily driven by water densities. Since water temperature and salt concentrations are the primary factors determining water density, they are the primary drivers for deep ocean currents. Since water temperature differences are mostly due to solar radiation differences and salt densities are mostly driven by polar ice melt, in the absence of tides, deep ocean currents would not disappear. At the surface, winds also create ocean currents. Winds are driven by air pressure differences caused by differential heating and humidity, therefore wind driven ocean currents would also remain.


It is true, that the moon is very gradually moving further away from our planet, and it is true that the length of our days are being very very slightly, although its something like 2 seconds every 100 years gets added on to every day.
Strong storms headed this way..Showing some signs of rotation. Hopefully they will pass just north, but I doubt it.
Quoting Tazmanian:




Acer LOL i took it right back and got me a Toshiba


Do you not love the Toshiba? My little net book has an 8 hour battery life. Bought my son a Toshiba laptop for college 3 years ago and still going strong. One of the best brands on the market in my opinion.
I wonder if land life could have gotten started without tide pools.


Quoting TomTaylor:
that statement may have a little truth to it, but ocean currents certainly won't stop and it won't cause ecosystems to collapse, although coastal marine environments could be impacted fairly significantly.

Even without the moon, the sun accounts for some of our tides. Therefore tides would not cease to exist. Also, deep ocean currents are primarily driven by water densities. Since water temperature and salt concentrations are the primary factors determining water density, they are the primary drivers for deep ocean currents. Since water temperature differences are mostly due to solar radiation differences and salt densities are mostly driven by polar ice melt, in the absence of tides, deep ocean currents would not disappear. At the surface, winds also create ocean currents. Winds are driven by air pressure differences caused by differential heating and humidity, therefore wind driven ocean currents would also remain.


It is true, that the moon is very gradually moving further away from our planet, and it is true that the length of our days are being very very slightly, although its something like 2 seconds every 100 years.
Quoting Tazmanian:
i love my new Toshiba
I thought you just got an Acre?
Quoting AvidWeatherHound:


Do you not love the Toshiba? My little net book has an 8 hour battery life. Bought my son a Toshiba laptop for college 3 years ago and still going strong. One of the best brands on the market in my opinion.
What ever you do avoid getting your child anything from Emachines and samsung.....they SUCK really badly.I brought my daughter a laptop for christmas and with in 3 months it went to waste.Damn(SHM).
Quoting TomTaylor:
that statement may have a little truth to it, but ocean currents certainly won't stop and it won't cause ecosystems to collapse, although coastal marine environments could be impacted fairly significantly.

Even without the moon, the sun accounts for some of our tides. Therefore tides would not cease to exist. Also, deep ocean currents are primarily driven by water densities. Since water temperature and salt concentrations are the primary factors determining water density, they are the primary drivers for deep ocean currents. Since water temperature differences are mostly due to solar radiation differences and salt densities are mostly driven by polar ice melt, in the absence of tides, deep ocean currents would not disappear. At the surface, winds also create ocean currents. Winds are driven by air pressure differences caused by differential heating and humidity, therefore wind driven ocean currents would also remain.


It is true, that the moon is very gradually moving further away from our planet, and it is true that the length of our days are being very very slightly, although its something like 2 seconds every 100 years.
We would not be here without the moon and if we loose it, it will make the worse GW scenario look like a picnic.
Quoting AvidWeatherHound:


Do you not love the Toshiba? My little net book has an 8 hour battery life. Bought my son a Toshiba laptop for college 3 years ago and still going strong. One of the best brands on the market in my opinion.



i love Toshiba
Well, I'm off for the night.

Night WU'ers.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Strong storms headed this way..Showing some signs of rotation. Hopefully they will pass just north, but I doubt it.


Were I you, I would be hoping they come directly over me. Not wishing anything dastardly on you, but I love extreme weather.
Quoting scooster67:
I thought you just got an Acre?



i took it back and got Toshiba




did not like the Acer keyboard too letters too small
Marie's brief kiss has turned into a warm, sloppy embrace. Near 100% humidity, no wind, but still 18 degrees C at near midnight. Blech. Ain't gonna sleep well tonight.

Granted, could be much, much worse.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I wonder if land life could have gotten started without tide pools.





Didn't you see "Jurassic Park?" Life always finds a way!
Quoting txjac:


Congratulations, interesting article


Thanks :) Glad you enjoyed it :) It's actually a great website, too -- the whole idea of the place is that they get people in the relevant fields to write their articles on research stories - which means (in theory) you get pieces that are less likely to mis-sell or mis-represent the work :) Since they asked me for the first article I did for them, I've been reading stuff on their site all the time, and have had a fair few I've been tempted to link over here, but didn't bother in the end 'cos I didn't want to provoke too much of an AGW fight :P
Quoting KoritheMan:


Were I you, I would be hoping they come directly over me. Not wishing anything dastardly on you, but I love extreme weather.


lol, well, any other time I would. But...Its sleep time, not listen to rain and thunder time, lol.

You live in MS right? You don't know what storms are until you've lived in Texas.

Jeez..We had tornadic storms so much that we got used to the tornado sirens =P
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
My daughter is doing well, after 8 days she had water and electricity, her log cabin survived. My ex is living in a mobile home about 20 miles away, someone gave her free furniture in Austin. Things are getting better every day.


That is EXCELLENT news! I am very glad to hear that. I believe that I am safe in saying that all of us here wish her the best and that all others effected will recover soon.

I heard of the donations being sent in to everyone there. I hope they get all they need!
50 ways to leave your planet. But will we go?


Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


It will be toasty and there will be no doubt where the extra heat is coming from. Fortunately, we have a couple of days left to pack our bags. ;-)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Were I you, I would be hoping they come directly over me. Not wishing anything dastardly on you, but I love extreme weather.
I was thinking the same thing lol

Unless there's a tornado on the ground
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Didn't you see "Jurassic Park?" Life always finds a way!


Maybe. But I wonder. Why aren't the clouds green with bacteria?
812. txjac
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol, well, any other time I would. But...Its sleep time, not listen to rain and thunder time, lol.

You live in MS right? You don't know what storms are until you've lived in Texas.

Jeez..We had tornadic storms so much that we got used to the tornado sirens =P


Love sleeping in the rain and thunder ..miss it much
Here are a couple of links that might be relevant to the latest gossip. They come from Wikipedia (yay!) which has survived despite being editable by anyone--sort of like this blog.

link1

link2
814. KYDan
Quoting pottery:

It's too late already.
We're DOOMED as of next year.
An Aztec Scribe said so.
So it MUST be true. After all, they also invented Dark Chocolate. Wise people, them Aztec.


Mayan scribes, or more exactly calendar chiselers.;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Excellent article. Thanks. I read a lot of science fiction as a kid, so became enamored of the idea of living under a double sun. I assumed--and later read--that the tidal pull between, and necessarily rapid rotations of, the binary stars would lead to grotesque equatorial bulges, with either or both members displaying a prominent oblate spheroidal shape, and with the primary member drawing plumes of gaseous matter from its companion. I've also read that, because of this imbalance and the abnormal transfer of matter, binary systems would be unstable and thus only to last for a relatively short time. I'm sure a lot would have to do with the mass of the members, their sizes relative to each other, their relative ages, and, of course, the distance between them and eccentricity of their orbits.

Anyway, again: excellent. That's amazing...


Thanks :) Glad you enjoyed it :)

The kind of behaviour you're talking about does happen -- particularly when the two stars in question are very close to one another. It's mainly down to the effect of tides (the strength of which, if I remember right, varies as the inverse-fourth power of the separation - so if you double the distance between two objects, the tidal drag on them drops by something like a factor of 16!). So the stars when you get material sloughing from one to the other are generally cases when the two are very close to one another, and when one of them has swelled up in its later years, filling what's known as it's Roche lobe (which means, essentially, that its upper layers are quite weakly bound to it, and it's easy for them to overflow and for material to pour across the gap.

In this case, the two stars in question are sufficiently separated that they're likely fairly "normal" - i.e. nearly spherical, rather than particularly strongly oblate.

It's also true that two stars rather than one will make things less stable than otherwise you'd expect -- but the secondary star here is quite small and puny, relatively speaking, so it doesn't appear to be a problem in this case. Might have prevented any planets forming fairly close in to the binary though, but I haven't done the modelling, so can't say for sure :D
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol, well, any other time I would. But...Its sleep time, not listen to rain and thunder time, lol.

You live in MS right? You don't know what storms are until you've lived in Texas.

Jeez..We had tornadic storms so much that we got used to the tornado sirens =P


Louisiana actually. We have lots of lightning storms here, but few tornadoes (lots of warnings, though). We also get straight line winds in excess of 50-60 mph annually, which I must admit I look forward to. lol
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
50 ways to leave your planet. But will we go?




My bags are packed. I have heard something about the closer you get to approaching the speed of light, the more time slows down. At my age, that would be the closest I could get to finding the fountain of youth! ... Who needs Ponce de Leon? I have LIGHT SPEED!



Nice spin trying to start within the ITCZ it appears.
oh my window index is 5.9
Quoting TomTaylor:
I was thinking the same thing lol

Unless there's a tornado on the ground


I would love to see a tornado from a distance also. But that's pretty much the only weather phenomenon I have no desire to experience firsthand.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Maybe. But I wonder. Why aren't the clouds green with bacteria?


Because when we see green skies, we know something else is up and have them banned! LOL
Season is over guys. Time to watch for the noreasters. There may be one or two more waves that have a shot but conditions aren't favorable.
Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
Season is over guys. Time to watch for the noreasters. There may be one or two more waves that have a shot but conditions aren't favorable.


...You do realize we had five October hurricanes last year, right?
Quoting KoritheMan:


I would love to see a tornado from a distance also. But that's pretty much the only weather phenomenon I have no desire to experience firsthand.
Hey Kori! Haven't seen you in awhile.
827. DFWjc
Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
Season is over guys. Time to watch for the noreasters. There may be one or two more waves that have a shot but conditions aren't favorable.


i disagree, just wait another 10-13 days....
aaaaa...

just what is happening in the Gulf...did the stationary high check out...looks like rain coming into Texas, could it be?
11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 15
Location: 38.5°N 63.5°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: NE at 43 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
831. DFWjc
Quoting houston144:
aaaaa...

just what is happening in the Gulf...did the stationary high check out...looks like rain coming into Texas, could it be?


yep, got some rain yesterday up here...
Quoting FrankZapper:
Hey Kori! Haven't seen you in awhile.


Hey Kerry!

Yeah, I've been sick with a cold, probably from pretending to be Jim Cantore during Lee. Then I hurt my back, and I'm just now recovered.
Good night, to all. I hope everyone gets the weather they need. ... Where did I put that suitcase?
Didn't take long for Godot to get here.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011

...MARIA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO JONES HARBOUR.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AVALON
PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 43 MPH...69 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF MARIA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MARIA MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA.

STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Atlantic
14L.MARIA

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
96W.INVEST
95W.INVEST
19W.SONCA
18W.ROKE
for all those in alsaka watch out where the huskies go
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That is EXCELLENT news! I am very glad to hear that. I believe that I am safe in saying that all of us here wish her the best and that all others effected will recover soon.

I heard of the donations being sent in to everyone there. I hope they get all they need!
Thank You so much, the majority of those who lost their homes didnt even have insurance. Amazing what can happen if everyone just donates a little to whatever cause. Going thru everything this past year just in the weather here has made me a stronger person, the heat and drought are bad enough the fires brought my misery to a different level. We all know around Central Texas that the weather is going to get much worse before it gets alot better unless a Miracle happens. I wish and pray for everyone, take care, Dennis.
Quoting AvidWeatherHound:


Sorry. I could have warned you about Emachines :(
Yeah the Emachine had broke down in almost a hurry.The hole where you put your headphones had stop working and it catches viruses easliy and breaks down.
Link

I made a KMZ file of the Riley Road Fire in magnolia, Tx if any one is interested. used four different source of information to build it, my theory as for a cause is the high voltage power line that run down the west side of the woodlands and the high temps and low humidity caused an arc from the towers -lines- to the ground....
841. DFWjc
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah the Emachine had broke down in almost a hurry.The hole where you put your headphones had stop working and it catches viruses easliy and breaks down.


I used to work for CompUSA and Acer, E-machine and Gateway are all the same company now..
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey Kerry!

Yeah, I've been sick with a cold, probably from pretending to be Jim Cantore during Lee. Then I hurt my back, and I'm just now recovered.
Old Lee. Seems like yesterday. I lost electricity for 10 hours Fri PM to Sat AM. At 1st Entergy said they would not fix it until Monday because they were predicting 40-50mph+ winds for Sat and Sun, which never materialized.

Did your area fare any better?
Quoting TomTaylor:
From Levi's blog



Bye atmo, and I agree, it would be nice if we had better site maintenance.

I won't be leaving the site, but I will be posting here a lot less and no longer doing blogs. It's a big time suck for me and I really don't enjoy posting that much anymore. My posts have been minused so much that the filter hides all of my posts, the number of trolls rises exponentially day by day, and honest discussions seem to be impossible to find nowadays.


Have to agree Tom. Seems like this blog is a micro view of the whole country right now.There's more enough blame to go around,so I won't start. Seems everyone has to be right with a my way or the highway attitude,reminds me of the poor status of our political recourse,at this moment in time. I see no good coming from it,only bad.We may end up a third world country if we can't find common ground on important issues. Just my 2 cents.
Quoting DFWjc:


I used to work for CompUSA and Acer, E-machine and Gateway are all the same company now..


Wouldn't recommend them to anyone!
Quoting KYDan:


Mayan scribes, or more exactly calendar chiselers.;-)


Quoting DFWjc:


I used to work for CompUSA and Acer, E-machine and Gateway are all the same company now..
Emachines still suck.I can tell you that I have not brought another computer and prbally won't be another computer from them for a long time.
847. DFWjc
I'm out too, got lots of research to do...nite all
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Have to agree Tom. Seems like this blog is a micro view of the whole country right now.There's more enough blame to go around,so I won't start. Seems everyone has to be right with a my way or the highway attitude,reminds me of the poor status of our political recourse,at this moment in time. I see no good coming from it,only bad.We may end up a third world country if we can't find common ground on important issues. Just my 2 cents.
Yes, unfortunately, the Blog and The Country are in decline mode, it seems. :(
Gosh I'm tired. Gym Jones kicks butt. Kicks my butt sometimes too.

A gym with a name even more controversial than this site. Jeez.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Old Lee. Seems like yesterday. I lost electricity for 10 hours Fri PM to Sat AM. At 1st Entergy said they would not fix it until Monday because they were predicting 40-50mph winds for Sat and Sun, which never materialized.

Did your area fare any better?


Apparently, we briefly lost power here, but I decided to ride it out with my dad since his apartment complex seems to be more stable in relation to this one. We never lost power there.

We had wind gusts in the tropical storm force range, but those were confined to the heaviest squalls. I estimate a peak gust of 45 mph occurred around 7:30 AM Friday morning, which turned out to be the worst we got, contrary to my (and others') expectations.

The interesting thing about Lee was that he resembled more strongly a subtropical cyclone, rather than a truly tropical entity. Some kept saying he had "eaten" that upper low, but that obviously did not happen, as it was that very thing that pumped all that dry air into him.

I must admit, it was kind of cool experiencing only mild cloudiness with periodic sunshine during a tropical cyclone. Now I know what it is like to experience a subtropical storm.

However, the winds aloft were likely very strong, especially in gusts. They likely would have exceeded 60 mph even after the system moved inland had convection been able to develop and bring those winds down to the surface.
Quoting MoltenIce:
Concerning computers...

I have a Mac. :S


OH no! Not the PC vs. MAC debates!
11:00PM Advisory
*Click image to magnify (image can further be magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


OH no! Not the PC vs. MAC debates!


Mac the knife!
Good Night to all.
Quoting houston144:
Link

I made a KMZ file of the Riley Road Fire in magnolia, Tx if any one is interested. used four different source of information to build it, my theory as for a cause is the high voltage power line that run down the west side of the woodlands and the high temps and low humidity caused an arc from the towers -lines- to the ground....

houston
I worked with electricity for 48 years. The dryer the air, the less chance for an arc. If there was a lot of dust in the air, that might have caused it. Dust was dangerous around high voltage.
Jesse
Quoting houston144:
Link

I made a KMZ file of the Riley Road Fire in magnolia, Tx if any one is interested. used four different source of information to build it, my theory as for a cause is the high voltage power line that run down the west side of the woodlands and the high temps and low humidity caused an arc from the towers -lines- to the ground....


Interesting map. Thanks
That's an excellent graphic AllStar! Way better than the local tv mets show.
Quoting HurricaneLovr75:
Season is over guys. Time to watch for the noreasters. There may be one or two more waves that have a shot but conditions aren't favorable.

no, it's definitely not. Idk how you could even call it over when we have a hurricane spinning in the Atlantic right at this very moment lol

Quoting KoritheMan:


I would love to see a tornado from a distance also. But that's pretty much the only weather phenomenon I have no desire to experience firsthand.
yea same. At a distance would be really cool (as long as it's not tearing up some neighborhood, that'd be not cool).

I'm gonna go for now, later all
Quoting KoritheMan:


Apparently, we briefly lost power here, but I decided to ride it out with my dad since his apartment complex seems to be more stable in relation to this one. We never lost power there.

We had wind gusts in the tropical storm force range, but those were confined to the heaviest squalls. I estimate a peak gust of 45 mph occurred around 7:30 AM Friday morning, which turned out to be the worst we got, contrary to my (and others') expectations.

The interesting thing about Lee was that he resembled more strongly a subtropical cyclone, rather than a truly tropical entity. Some kept saying he had "eaten" that upper low, but that obviously did not happen, as it was that very thing that pumped all that dry air into him.

I must admit, it was kind of cool experiencing only mild cloudiness with periodic sunshine during a tropical cyclone. Now I know what it is like to experience a subtropical storm.

However, the winds aloft were likely very strong, especially in gusts. They likely would have exceeded 60 mph had even after the system moved inland had convection been able to develop and bring those winds down to the surface.
I never once during Lee experienced lightening or thunder. Where were the thunderstorms?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
That's an excellent graphic AllStar! Way better than the local tv mets show.


Thank you! I thoroughly enjoy making them and posting them on here.
Quoting AllStar17:


Thank you! I thoroughly enjoy making them and posting them on here.


I had no idea you created them yourself. I just assumed you were linking them from another weather site. Well done!
Quoting FrankZapper:
I never once during Lee experienced lightening or thunder. Where were the thunderstorms?


I've never experienced a tropical cyclone with lightning. I realize that some produce it, but from what I gather most do not. Similar to hail.
864. JLPR2
Quoting FrankZapper:
I never once during Lee experienced lightening or thunder. Where were the thunderstorms?


I don't remember "why" well, but I belive tropical systems aren't supposed to have that many thunderstorms.

During Irene I never heard thunder, but I did see frequent lightning.
I'm out. Everyone have a great Friday!


We have some lightning and thunder up here at the fringes of tropical cyclones like Irene. Systems are never 100% tropical when they get here though.
866. JLPR2
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'm out. Everyone have a great Friday!


We have some lightning and thunder up here at the fringes of tropical cyclones like Irene. Systems are never 100% tropical when they get here though.


Maria brought thunderstorms to PR, I believe that the little thunderstorms tropical storms and up have are at the outer bands, but not closer to the core, because the clouds move too fast to allow them to form?
Dang! My memory sucks!
I remember the good old days, when you know? Scientists were scientists, not scientists acting as politicians, holding huge conventions, because they are gripped with fear from world problems. Ah humanity, it tries so hard to save itself from which it cannot.
Quoting JLPR2:


I don't remember "why" well, but I belive tropical systems aren't supposed to have that many thunderstorms.

During Irene I never heard thunder, but I did see frequent lightning.


Much of that frequent lighting was probably arching electric grids being damaged from the winds. Lightning in tropical cyclones is kinda like lighting in snow storms, if you're getting lighting, you're in a VERY strong convective band! lol

Really though, I only saw lighting a few times ever from tropical cyclones, and it was during a particularly violent and deep convective band. Rain rates were near 5 to 6 inches an hour briefly and wind gusts peaked over minimal hurricane force at my house. That was from hurricane Frances.
Quoting Bielle:


I had no idea you created them yourself. I just assumed you were linking them from another weather site. Well done!


Oh. I always put a strip on the bottom indicating that I did them. Well, now you know.

Thank you for the complement!
so much for my theory "The fire broke out last week in Montgomery County", the power lines are in Warren County...which for the ones who are confused, the Riley Road fire is also known as the Tri-County fire effecting , Montgomery, Warren and Grimes county's in Texas. As a personnel note it seems none of them seem to be doing the same thing and it appears their is no coordination between them and I am rather surprised at one of the county's where allot of the victims and their animals are staying at a county fair ground the Director of the fair grounds has asked them to leave...because they have to put on their county fair..../really!/
871. JLPR2
Quoting Jedkins01:


Much of that frequent lighting was probably arching electric grids being damaged from the winds. Lightning in tropical cyclones is kinda like lighting in snow storms, if you're getting lighting, you're in a VERY strong convective band! lol

Really though, I only saw lighting a few times ever from tropical cyclones, and it was during a particularly violent and deep convective band. Rain rates were near 5 to 6 inches an hour briefly and wind gusts peaked over minimal hurricane force at my house. That was from hurricane Frances.


It was lightning, my area had no power at the moment and I doubt electric grids would send lighting bolts all the way up to the sky. XD
3 weeks ago tonight: Irene turns northward and aims at the US East Coast
Quoting JLPR2:


I don't remember "why" well, but I belive tropical systems aren't supposed to have that many thunderstorms.

During Irene I never heard thunder, but I did see frequent lightning.


I think the rotation of a cyclone storm, as opposed to a frontal storm, not only keeps good ground-to-storm lightning at a minimum, but muffles thunderclaps.

The earth doesn't know how to efficiently send up streamers which result in lightning in a vortex compared to a frontal/perpendicular elecromagnetic assault.
874. JLPR2
Quoting redwagon:


I think the rotation of a cyclone storm, as opposed to a frontal storm, not only keeps good ground-to-storm lightning at a minimum, but muffles thunderclaps.

The earth doesn't know how to efficiently send up streamers which result in lightning in a vortex compared to a frontal/perpendicular elecromagnetic assault.


Now that you say that, most of the lighting I saw was cloud to cloud.
But it was pretty interesting to see so much lightning, don't remember seeing lightning when Georges or Jeanne passed through my area.

Lightning is usually associated with strengthening systems and Irene was doing exactly that as she crossed PR.
Quoting JLPR2:


Maria brought thunderstorms to PR, I believe that the little thunderstorms tropical storms and up have are at the outer bands, but not closer to the core, because the clouds move too fast to allow them to form?
Dang! My memory sucks!


It is because convective formation in tropical cyclones is quite different than normal convection contrary to what some may think that "rain clouds are always just rain clouds". The farther you travel towards the outer edges of tropical cyclones that process becomes more of what you see in a "normal" convective cell. However, the outer bands are normally still very tropical in nature, just less than the inner core of a hurricane, obviously.


I really don't have the patience to explain why, frankly because I don't have the credentials to completely know without giving inexact science. Lighting itself still has many unknowns, as well as tropical cyclones. It has something to do with a process called collision coalescence as well as the Bergeron process from what I know.
Quoting redwagon:


I think the rotation of a cyclone storm, as opposed to a frontal storm, not only keeps good ground-to-storm lightning at a minimum, but muffles thunderclaps.

The earth doesn't know how to efficiently send up streamers which result in lightning in a vortex compared to a frontal/perpendicular elecromagnetic assault.

Of course that is not true of rainbands from cyclones, as they are frontal in their interaction with land.
33.8n66.6w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Maria's_12amGMT_ATCF
33.7n67.0w, 36.8n64.9w are now the most recent positions
Starting 15Sept_12amGMT and ending 16Sept_12amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneMaria's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 16Sept_12amGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 45.992n59.6w-YPS is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 15Sept_6pmGMT*mapping,
and the coastline dumbbell at 44.726n62.913w-YAW is the same for the 15Sept_12pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
H.Maria's travel-speed was 40.7mph(65.4k/h) on a heading of 28.5degrees(NNE)
H.Maria was headed toward passage over Miquelon,France ~16hours from now... though its center was headed closer toward the airport(FSP) on St.Pierre,France than toward Miquelon's airport(MQC).

Copy&paste 44.726n62.913w-yaw, 45.992n59.6w-yps, 27.2n68.9w-28.8n68.5w, 28.8n68.5w-31.2n67.8w, 31.2n67.8w-33.7n67.0w, 33.7n67.0w-36.8n64.9w, mqc, 33.7n67.0w-46.804n56.361w, fsp into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 15Sept_6pmGMT)

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed &heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
878. JLPR2
Interesting... In 36hrs the GFS has the ULL north of PR with a nice surface reflection.

But if you were under a hot tower you probably would see some lightening, right?

I remember flashes of lightening in Betsy right before the eyewall hit. But that's a long time ago. Maybe it was transformers blowing.
Quoting JLPR2:
Interesting... In 36hrs the GFS has the ULL north of PR with a nice surface reflection.


As we expect troughs to 'lift' surface-level cyclones, does there exist a mechanism to 'drop' ULLs down through mid and to surface level for a good stack of the storm?
Quoting redwagon:

As we expect troughs to 'lift' surface-level cyclones, does there exist a mechanism to 'drop' ULLs down through mid and to surface level for a good stack of the storm?


I have seen times where an ULL helped a cyclone with outflow
Quoting will40:


I have seen times where an ULL helped a cyclone with outflow

Yeah but how do you get an ULL to stack down to a true surface cyclone in itself?
Quoting redwagon:

Yeah but how do you get an ULL to stack down to a true surface cyclone in itself?



nope never seen that happen
884. JLPR2
Quoting redwagon:

Yeah but how do you get an ULL to stack down to a true surface cyclone in itself?


Time. But if the ULL becomes stacked with the surface circulation produced, the result will probably be a subtropical cyclone, like Andrea in 2007.
885. ryang
Quoting JLPR2:


Time. But if the ULL becomes stacked with the surface circulation produced, the result will probably be a subtropical cyclone, like Andrea in 2007.


That looks so cool....
886. JLPR2
Quoting ryang:


That looks so cool....


Yeah, I never get tired of looking at it. XD
887. JLPR2
174hrs...

Looks like a TD east of the Windwards, but it's exit is sitting right at the East coast, will it be able to pull it north?
Quoting JLPR2:


Time. But if the ULL becomes stacked with the surface circulation produced, the result will probably be a subtropical cyclone, like Andrea in 2007.

Cold-core. You know, Lee did that, I still have a gif of him eating a huge dry mass of air like it was nothing, and look what he went on to do.

NOAA actually classified him as a hybrid, which I'd never seen them do.
Quoting JLPR2:
174hrs...

Looks like a TD east of the Windwards, but it's exit is sitting right at the East coast but will it be able to pull it north?
174hrs -_-
Quoting redwagon:

Cold-core. You know, Lee did that, I still have a gif of him eating a huge dry mass of air like it was nothing, and look what he went on to do.

NOAA actually classified him as a hybrid, which I'd never seen them do.
Lee was warm core the upper low was to his west i think.
891. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
174hrs -_-


Yep. The long range trusty GFS. LOL!
892. JLPR2
There goes Maria.
Cooling down again in nw FL. I think we're in the clear for the 2011 hurricane season
Quoting Gearsts:
Lee was warm core the upper low was to his west i think.


He had two COCs at one time, one cold, one warm, if I recall.
Quoting JLPR2:


It was lightning, my area had no power at the moment and I doubt electric grids would send lighting bolts all the way up to the sky. XD


haha, well, I thought you were talking about flashes, not actual visible lightning, that's the only reason i mentioned lightning being confused with power issues. Also you may have had power out, but nearby lines in the area could be arching and have no relationship to your power. I'm not sure how power works over there, but 10 to 20 KV lines could be having power issues a half to a mile from here, meanwhile it only causes a "blip" or flash in the power here.

But as you start going higher up into the "bigger" lines, like say 120 KV range, a lot more people lose power if those go out. Or if you lose lines from a huge transmission tower like the giant metal link structure ones that come by my neighborhood which are probably 480 KV, you get thousands and thousands of outages.

Its scary how dangerous all these masses of power lines are that run all over in our modern world, we forget how dangerous they are when they work properly, but if something goes wrong, we are reminded of the shocking amount of energy traveling around the outside of them. Especially because they carry way more electrical energy, as in electron flow than you would think for their size.
Evening all,
Taking a look at African continent...Wave upon wave are lined up...
Link


And the Carribean looks ripe..

(Sorry wrong posted link..give me a sec...)

Here's the correct one...LOL

Link


This lull in activity won't last very long IMO...
Quoting houston144:
Link

I made a KMZ file of the Riley Road Fire in magnolia, Tx if any one is interested. used four different source of information to build it, my theory as for a cause is the high voltage power line that run down the west side of the woodlands and the high temps and low humidity caused an arc from the towers -lines- to the ground....


That is very possible. We had a transformer in a substation in Lumberton explode 2 weeks ago due to high heat and electrical overload. The fire was amazing, but stayed on the rock pad in the high yard.
Quoting houston144:
so much for my theory "The fire broke out last week in Montgomery County", the power lines are in Warren County...which for the ones who are confused, the Riley Road fire is also known as the Tri-County fire effecting , Montgomery, Warren and Grimes county's in Texas.


Tri county fire, aka Riley Road fire, was in WALLER, Montgomery and Grimes Counties.
Quoting pcola57:
Evening all,
Taking a look at African continent...Wave upon wave are lined up...
Link


And the Carribean looks ripe..

(Sorry wrong posted link..give me a sec...)

Here's the correct one...LOL

Link


This lull in activity won't last very long IMO...



CV season is winding down
900. JLPR2
Seems like the ULL is trying hard to dig to the surface.

Surface converge making an appearance.
Quoting Tazmanian:



CV season is winding down
yep most will travel the ITCZ now and sink south with it
904. JLPR2
Quoting Jedkins01:


haha, well, I thought you were talking about flashes, not actual visible lightning, that's the only reason i mentioned lightning being confused with power issues. Also you may have had power out, but nearby lines in the area could be arching and have no relationship to your power. I'm not sure how power works over there, but 10 to 20 KV lines could be having power issues a half to a mile from here, meanwhile it only causes a "blip" or flash in the power here.

But as you start going higher up into the "bigger" lines, like say 120 KV range, a lot more people lose power if those go out. Or if you lose lines from a huge transmission tower like the giant metal link structure ones that come by my neighborhood which are probably 480 KV, you get thousands and thousands of outages.

Its scary how dangerous all these masses of power lines are that run all over in our modern world, we forget how dangerous they are when they work properly, but if something goes wrong, we are reminded of the shocking amount of energy traveling around the outside of them. Especially because they carry way more electrical energy, as in electron flow than you would think for their size.


Heard transformers exploding close by, but wasn't looking out the window at the moment. And yeah, I guess there could have been some lines arching somewhere, but I don't have a good view of any lines from where I was looking.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep most will travel the ITCZ now and sink south with it

Please don't go...
Quoting redwagon:


He had two COCs at one time, one cold, one warm, if I recall.
yeah that's a cool loop
Quoting Jedkins01:


It is because convective formation in tropical cyclones is quite different than normal convection contrary to what some may think that "rain clouds are always just rain clouds". The farther you travel towards the outer edges of tropical cyclones that process becomes more of what you see in a "normal" convective cell. However, the outer bands are normally still very tropical in nature, just less than the inner core of a hurricane, obviously.


I really don't have the patience to explain why, frankly because I don't have the credentials to completely know without giving inexact science. Lighting itself still has many unknowns, as well as tropical cyclones. It has something to do with a process called collision coalescence as well as the Bergeron process from what I know.


Here's my best guess. The collision of ice crystals builds up charges in a thunderstorm. To balance this out, lightning is formed. Now, in a hurricane the reason why I would expect there to be less lightning activity than with an ordinary thunderstorm is because the air flow within the hurricane is different. Air flow in a hurricane has much more of a horizontal component due to the strong pressure gradient. Therefore, you don't get air moving more directly up and down and thus colliding more often, as we would see in the average thunderstorm cell. As a result, you get less of a build up of charge, and less lightning.

As far as more lightning with intensifying tropical cyclones, I would explain this as a result of stronger updrafts, relative to the horizontal wind/pressure gradient. When a storm is intensifying it usually has many overshooting cloud tops and the pressure fall always lags behind the latest convective blow up, which supports the idea of very strong updrafts relative to the pressure gradient/horizontal component of the air flow. These stronger updrafts and intensifying thunderstorms increase collision rates and lightning frequency.

That's my guess at it. No scientific papers or evidence used, just an educated guess.
Quoting Seawall:
This USED to be a weather blog. Checked in twice today, and guess what? Presto, it's back to climate change, or whatever you call it. If I wanted to read about climate change, I'd go to a blog about it.. and yes, I know it's Dr. Master's blog, and I respect his weather opinions, but I don't want his other opinions shoved down my throat. Many have me on ignore, I don't care. Look at my join date; I've been on here a long time, paying each year.
The admins boot lots of good people from here; some temporarily, some perma banned. Some leave because of the lack of weather info. OK, so be it. This talk of climate is NOT what I come here to see.
The good people are gone, and the other people that have reasonable knowledge are on their way out as well.
I don't pay my money for a climate change main blog, I paid my money for a weather blog, and if you think they are the same, then you are wrong. JMHO.
I see Levi32 is a staff member on another blog, the one I've joined. But we can't mention that, can we?
This is totally crazy, what this blog has become in the past TEN YEARS!


Things are pretty quiet... the only thing I would suggest to improve this site and blog is more info and images earlier on in a storms development... and expanding the different ways data can be viewed from java to flash to whatever... so we all can enjoy it.

Out.


WOCN31 CWHX 160545
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2:42 AM NDT Thursday
16 September 2011.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Labrador
Newfoundland
Nova Scotia.

For hurricane Maria.

The next intermediate statement will be issued at 6:30 AM NDT.
Followed by the next full statement issued by 9:30 AM NDT.

Hurricane Maria expected to make landfall as a hurricane this
Afternoon in Southeast Newfoundland - merging with large
Non-tropical low over Labrador on Saturday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 3:30 AM NDT.

Location: about 40.0 north 62.0 west.

About 470 kilometres south southwest of Sable Island.

Maximum sustained winds: 130 km/hour.

Present movement: northeast at 75 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 982 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane Maria expected to merge/interact with a developing trough
to its north that will connect to a much larger non-tropical low over
Labrador.

Our latest track (on the WWW.HURRICANES.CA website) is adjusted
westward and shows Maria passing over the isthmus of the Avalon
Peninsula this afternoon with hurricane force gusts forecast over
land. Note that there will be far-reaching impacts of the combined
weather systems well away from the track.

A. Wind.

Windy conditions are to be expected throughout Atlantic Canada today
and Saturday as the non-tropical low and trough north of Maria unite.
The highest winds directly from Maria will pass over the Avalon
Peninsula this afternoon. A hurricane warning is in effect for the
southern half of the Avalon Peninsula and a tropical storm warning is
posted for the Northern Avalon, the Burin, and Bonavista peninsulas.

Wind gusts of 100 km/h are expected in the tropical storm warning
area. Hurricane force wind gusts (120 km/h or higher) are expected
in the hurricane warning area.

These wind gusts can topple trees and break large branches, resulting
in downed utility lines and power interuptions. Damage to signage
and building cladding/roofing material is also possible when winds
gust to 120 km/h or more.

The aforementioned combined low will deliver high winds over a broad
area covering Newfoundland and Labrador tonight and Saturday.
Coastal Labrador in particular will likely receive the strongest
winds on Saturday. Stay tuned for specific forecasts early this
morning related to that storm.

B. Rainfall.

Much of the Maritimes is receiving rainfall associated with the
non-tropical low and the trough developing north of Maria. Rain has
begun over Southern Newfoundland in advance of Maria and trough.
The potential for the heaviest rainfall exists over southern, Eastern
and Central Newfoundland where 60 to 90 millimetres is expected.
Heavy showers with lesser total amounts is occurring over the eastern
half of Nova Scotia.

Note that whenever moisture from a hurricane feeds into a
front/trough it is likely that rainfall rates of 15 to 25 millimetres
per hour would occur. Such rates could lead to flash-type flooding
in ditches and small rivers especially where terrain is steep.
Local flooding in prone areas is possible. Fortunately, river water
levels are at or below normal over Eastern Newfoundland. Keep in
mind however that smaller rivers/creeks will respond more quickly to
heavy rain than larger ones.

Rainfall warnings for Ramea Connaigre east to the Avalon Peninsula
then north to Bonavista and Terra Nova park. These will be expanded
westward early this morning.

C. Surge/waves.

Most coastal regions of Newfoundland can expect waves to build today
as the weather systems interact. Wave and surge effects directly
from Maria will occur over the Southern Avalon Peninsula coastlines
this afternoon.

Storm surge of 50 centimetres is likely along the Southern Avalon
coast with near a metre in south facing bays where surge and waves
get channeled. Fortunately the tidal range is currently low causing
the impact of surge to be less than it would be otherwise.
The highest waves will be south of Maria and will build to 4 to 7
metres over the Grand Banks and waters neighbouring the Avalon.

Large waves and storm surge are likely over Western Newfoundland
tonight and Saturday particularly in the Strait of Belle Isle.
A lesser risk exists for the Northeast Coast of Newfoundland.

This low will generate very high waves offshore of Labrador on
Saturday where wave heights could exceed 10 metres.

One factor that may help ease impacts somewhat is a run of lower than
average tides.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Storm to hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for the
southeastern marine areas for today as a result of Maria.

Gale to storm force winds are in effect elsewhere over most of
Atlantic Canadian waters for today and Saturday as a result of the
non-tropical low.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

End

Being a Canadian, I'm worried that Maria will blow all of the poutine trucks in Newfoundland & Labrador away.

I hope they are safe, and at least Maria isn't going to be another Igor: the conditions aren't right where she is going.
ALBANY, NY (WTEN) - An $8 Million government rebate program has been set up for people in New York State who lost appliances in the flood.

The rebate is available for any Energy Star or high efficiency appliances that are purchased to replace an appliance damaged in either Hurricane Irene or Tropical Storm Lee.

The money is available through NYSERDA, the New York Energy Research and Development authority to help pay for appliances ranging from dehumidifiers to furnaces.

NYSERDA spokeswoman Dayle Zatlin says each family is allotted a maximum of $3,850 to replace their appliances.

"We don't know how many people will be served, we don't know how many people will apply for the program, it will be interesting to see what happens. And I know that we're going to do everything we can to get this money out to those in need," Zatlin said.

Zatlin says they will be spot auditing to make sure no one is taking advantage of the program. more here
Quoting TomTaylor:


Here's my best guess. The collision of ice crystals builds up charges in a thunderstorm. To balance this out, lightning is formed. Now, in a hurricane the reason why I would expect there to be less lightning activity than with an ordinary thunderstorm is because the air flow within the hurricane is different. Air flow in a hurricane has much more of a horizontal component due to the strong pressure gradient. Therefore, you don't get air moving more directly up and down and thus colliding more often, as we would see in the average thunderstorm cell. As a result, you get less of a build up of charge, and less lightning.

As far as more lightning with intensifying tropical cyclones, I would explain this as a result of stronger updrafts, relative to the horizontal wind/pressure gradient. When a storm is intensifying it usually has many overshooting cloud tops and the pressure fall always lags behind the latest convective blow up, which supports the idea of very strong updrafts relative to the pressure gradient/horizontal component of the air flow. These stronger updrafts and intensifying thunderstorms increase collision rates and lightning frequency.

That's my guess at it. No scientific papers or evidence used, just an educated guess.


That's pretty much the same way I would think too, makes since to me! That may be part of it.
Quoting Tazmanian:



CV season is winding down
No not yet, there's still names from Africa to form aleast 2 more maybe 3.
014L/H/M/C1

XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
12N/57W
Thailand got slammed with flood..82 died and more than 570,000 affected.

A pipeline from an orphaned platform was leaking crude oil into Bayou Dupont and north Barataria Bay in Jeffferson Parrish. Clean up is under way. Quite a bit of oil..

Oil industry had two explosions already today. Fireball in Australia & a rig blew in North Dakota killing two.

TX has some red tide in the Brownsville Ship Channel & a lot of dead fish..

Giant African Snails invade Miami..i know could be more weather related but giant snails..
Quoting Gearsts:
No not yet, there's still names from Africa to form aleast 2 more maybe 3.


The season is far from over at this point but conditions are looking to a slow down for this region for storms. don't let your guard down yet, a bite in the backside is what will get the downcasters
919. JLPR2
Well now, read Dr. M's entry on Hurricane Hugo. Some really interesting stuff in there, awesome story! So glad they made it.

ULL still has an interesting look.



And with that I'm off to bed. Goodnight everyone!
Storm numbers somewhat deceiving

Excerpt:


To put it simply, storm season so far has been about quantity, not quality, so far. Only three storms, Irene, Emily and Katia, have grown into hurricanes. A key index called ACE — for accumulated cyclone energy, a measure that combines the intensity and longevity of storms — sits at just 20 to 30 percent above average.

“The distribution has been very unusual this year,’’ said Phil Klotzbach, a researcher who along with colleague William Gray produces Colorado State University’s closely watched long-term forecasts. The tally to date: Three hurricanes, two of them major, and a lot of fairly weak tropical storms, including — as Klotzbach put it — “two-short-lived pieces of garbage.’’ That would be Franklin and Jose.


Good morning to any who are up and on. Missing the mornings with people here. It's 61 degrees and 87% humidity. But no rain.
g'morning ais

was hoping I'd find you wandering aimlessly
you have wu-mail

wish I could send rain as easily as a click on the keyboard
its starting to get very busy again after a lull
Good morning to all. I am not abandoning this ship as I am seeing some are doing. I will continue to talk about the tropics in this Dr Masters blog and on my blog.

On another topic,I see that 00z GFS and ECMWF backed off from the CV development both had at yesterdays 12z.
H.Maria's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 15Sept_6amGMT and ending 16Sept_6amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneMaria's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 16Sept_6amGMT,
the island blob at 46.804n56.361w-FSP is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 16Sept_12amGMT*mapping,
and the coastline dumbbell at 45.992n59.6w-YPS is the same for the 15Sept_6pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Maria's travel-speed was 45.2mph(72.7k/h) on a heading of 34.6degrees(NE)
(33.75degrees is midway between NNE and NE)
H.Maria was headed toward passage over GreatBarasway,Newfoundland ~9hours from now

Copy&paste 45.992n59.6w-yps, 46.804n56.361w-fsp, 28.8n68.5w-31.2n67.8w, 31.2n67.8w-33.7n67.0w, 33.7n67.0w-36.8n64.9w, 36.8n64.9w-40.0n62.0w, yyt, 36.8n64.9w-47.113n54.077w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 16Sept_12amGMT)

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed &heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Weather and Climate are related to one another.. and climate change will affect the weather.. so I see no issue with a respected meteorologist (who you know has scientific training and such) talking about it. Whether you agree or disagree with him is another matter, but I see no issue with him talking about it.

Frankly, the only people who seem uncomfortable with him talking about it are those who deny it exists, and hate having facts and statistics contradict them.


Quoting Seawall:
This USED to be a weather blog. Checked in twice today, and guess what? Presto, it's back to climate change, or whatever you call it. If I wanted to read about climate change, I'd go to a blog about it.. and yes, I know it's Dr. Master's blog, and I respect his weather opinions, but I don't want his other opinions shoved down my throat.

"Sea ice cover in the Arctic in 2011 has passed its annual minimum, reaching the second-lowest level since satellite records began, US scientists say.The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) says the minimum, reached on 9 September, was 4.33 million sq km."
Link

Quoting aquak9:
g'morning ais

was hoping I'd find you wandering aimlessly
you have wu-mail

wish I could send rain as easily as a click on the keyboard


Morning, Aqua! Yep, wandering aimlessly around!
Good morning all. Unusally quiet out in the tropical Atlantic for this time of year.
Quoting stribe37:
Weather and Climate are related to one another.. and climate change will affect the weather.. so I see no issue with a respected meteorologist (who you know has scientific training and such) talking about it. Whether you agree or disagree with him is another matter, but I see no issue with him talking about it.

Frankly, the only people who seem uncomfortable with him talking about it are those who deny it exists, and hate having facts and statistics contradict them.




Climate change is an interesting topic. But the topic always appears to disintegrate into a political bashing. I prefer to not read politics and people-bashing. Greenhouse and climate change can be seperate topics, look at history. Attitude and how things are presented are also factors in how information is received. Because of how the presentation is given by several posters, I skip them or leave and come back when the topic goes back to weather. It's good to be ardent with something you love, but if you want people to listen, you need to avoid ranting and trying to push your agenda.
Good Morning Everyone. Today is the 83rd anniversery of the United States' 2nd worst natural disaster in its history. I was pleased to see the NHC's Re-Analysis Project finally got around to changing the estimated center positions of the '28 Storm to roughly what everyone has said they were for the last 82 years. This is the map I made and sent to the NHC 5 or 6 years ago regarding the matter:


And since I'm unable to find any decent revised graphics, and the Historical Hurricane Tracks site is currently pretty much useless due to numerous errors, I made my own. This is the revised track:

The colored rings (WU's Cat. colors for 1-4) merely delineate 10-mile increments, and are not indicative of the windfield at the time. The thin pink line above the new official track notes the positions before the revision.

The NHC doesn't list the track change as a "major correction", but I differ on that view considerably. For one thing, the plaque at the WPB mass burial site has an inaccurite statement:

"On Sept. 16, 1928, a hurricane came ashore near the Jupiter Lighthouse and traveled west..."

The irony is, the new positions paint a line almost directly over the burial site in WPB:


As well as the other mass burial site in Port Mayaca:


A brief description of the Florida impact:
One of the ten most intense hurricanes ever recorded to strike the United States, coastal damage in Florida near the point of landfall was catastrophic. From Pompano Beach to Jupiter, buildings suffered serious damage from 145 mph sustained winds and a 10 ft storm surge, which was heaviest in the vicinity of Palm Beach. Inland, the hurricane wreaked even greater widespread destruction along the more heavily populated coast of Lake Okeechobee. 140 mph sustained winds caused a storm surge to overflow the small dike that had been built at the south end of the lake. The resulting flood - which lasted for weeks - covered hundreds of square miles and in some places was over 20 ft deep. More than 2500 people drowned, making this storm second only to the 1900 Galveston Hurricane as the deadliest natural disaster in US history.

Hope everyone has a great Friday with beautiful weather on this day, that reminds us of a stormy Sunday Night, a long time ago...

"They call it Stormy Monday,
But Tuesday's just as bad,
Lord, and Wednesday's worse -
Thursday is, oh so sad..."


waters plenty warm around s. fl.
Quoting Skyepony:
Thailand got slammed with flood..82 died and more than 570,000 affected.

A pipeline from an orphaned platform was leaking crude oil into Bayou Dupont and north Barataria Bay in Jeffferson Parrish. Clean up is under way. Quite a bit of oil..

Oil industry had two explosions already today. Fireball in Australia & a rig blew in North Dakota killing two.

TX has some red tide in the Brownsville Ship Channel & a lot of dead fish..

Giant African Snails invade Miami..i know could be more weather related but giant snails..
what about the invasion of jellies e. cen fl. worst in a lifetime
Quoting Gearsts:
No not yet, there's still names from Africa to form aleast 2 more maybe 3.
check you climatology records tas is right
Quoting mikatnight:
Good Morning Everyone. Today is the 83rd anniversery of the United States' 2nd worst natural disaster in its history. I was pleased to see the NHC's Re-Analysis Project finally got around to changing the estimated center positions of the '28 Storm to roughly what everyone has said they were for the last 82 years. This is the map I made and sent to the NHC 5 or 6 years ago regarding the matter:


And since I'm unable to find any decent revised graphics, and the Historical Hurricane Tracks site is currently pretty much useless due to numerous errors, I made my own. This is the revised track:

The colored rings (WU's Cat. colors for 1-4) merely delineate 10-mile increments, and are not indicative of the windfield at the time. The thin pink line above the new official track notes the positions before the revision.

The NHC doesn't list the track change as a "major correction", but I differ on that view considerably. For one thing, the plaque at the WPB mass burial site has an inaccurite statement:

"On Sept. 16, 1928, a hurricane came ashore near the Jupiter Lighthouse and traveled west..."

The irony is, the new positions paint a line almost directly over the burial site in WPB:


As well as the other mass burial site in Port Mayaca:


A brief description of the Florida impact:
One of the ten most intense hurricanes ever recorded to strike the United States, coastal damage in Florida near the point of landfall was catastrophic. From Pompano Beach to Jupiter, buildings suffered serious damage from 145 mph sustained winds and a 10 ft storm surge, which was heaviest in the vicinity of Palm Beach. Inland, the hurricane wreaked even greater widespread destruction along the more heavily populated coast of Lake Okeechobee. 140 mph sustained winds caused a storm surge to overflow the small dike that had been built at the south end of the lake. The resulting flood - which lasted for weeks - covered hundreds of square miles and in some places was over 20 ft deep. More than 2500 people drowned, making this storm second only to the 1900 Galveston Hurricane as the deadliest natural disaster in US history.

Hope everyone has a great Friday with beautiful weather on this day, that reminds us of a stormy Sunday Night, a long time ago...

"They call it Stormy Monday,
But Tuesday's just as bad,
Lord, and Wednesday's worse -
Thursday is, oh so sad..."



The 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane was a monster for sure. When driving through the fields south of the dike near Belle Glade and Clewiston as I have many times, it's never failed to strike me that beneath the square miles of muck in which all that sugar cane grows are the bones of hundreds of those who were never found. Think about that next time you sweeten your coffee with Florida sugar... :-\
Texas sea breeze pattern finally seems to be in place today. There is a good sized storm that just popped up in downtown San Antonio this morning - maybe 10-15 minutes ago. And I see plenty of moisture south of Corpus Christi. That should be a good indication the high pressure ridge has moved down towards Mexico finally. If the Gulf can cooperate, south Texas might get some much needed rain today.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2011

...WINDS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.6N 58.2W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 45 MPH...72 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO BRIGUS SOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO ARNOLDS COVE AND FROM BRIGUS
SOUTH TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 42.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH...72 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
MARIA SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MARIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MARIA MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY. SOME
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY TONIGHT...AND MARIA COULD BE ABSORBED
WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH MARIA.

STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN




good morning

The tropics is now having a little respite,with ONLY maria heading towards New Foundland and off to the atlantic shipping lanes. my concern this morning is an area of disturbed weather in the catl near 9n 35 w. There is good 850 mb vorticity with moderate shear values which is expecte to decrease the next 24 hrs and be more conducive, the next few days. sst is very warm south of 10 deg north and the system is moving west with no indication of recurvature before it gets in the caribbean sea. So far this morning it is only the Nogaps and the UK met is latched on to this system. i am positive the other global models will soon come on board. The system looks insignificant at this time, but what is worrisome Ivan in 2004 looked the same in the same position . it was also a friday and almost the same date in sept. could this be devaju all over again.
Well looks like the season is coming to a close....
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all. I am not abandoning this ship as I am seeing some are doing. I will continue to talk about the tropics in this Dr Masters blog and on my blog.

On another topic, I see that 00z GFS and ECMWF backed off from the CV development both had at yesterdays 12z.

Makes sense as the basin is pretty unfavorable till the end of the month.
Bastrop fire update: Now 85 percent contained. Early estimates on damage $150 million. It is humid this morning also. Isolated Light showers reported at Round Rock and developing around South Central Texas. Decent showers around San Antonio. I can see some areas getting a quarter of an inch or so which would seem like a flood around here. It would be awesome if it rained on Bastrop Texas and all other Texas locations still fighting fires which i understand is around 100 of them going on.
Today is the anniversary of Ivan coming ashore in baldwin co. Al. 7 years ago!
Quoting hurricane23:


Yes, it looks like the lull wlll be more prolonged than first thought.
Quoting jpsb:
The problem is the message, or the message being delivered by the extremists in the AWG /environmentalist movement. Normal people like me listen to what they are advocating and quickly realize that basically they want a return to preindustrial times. The USA might be able to support a population of 80-100 million sans fossil fuel/nuclear energy so that means 200 million plus people need to go. That is a very hard sell if you think you might be one of the ones that need to go.


One of the dumbest posts ever. "quickly realize that basically they want a return to preindustrial times"

Huh? That is what the soft titty of American hate would have you believe. The truth is very different. They just want you to get out of the way of those trying to save the planet.
Quoting RitaEvac:




It is just nice seeing a little bit of Texas getting a little rain, first time in a long time there is isolated showers on my radar, now rain fall on the fires please.
<blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Bastrop fire update: Now 85 percent contained. Early estimates on damage $150 million....


I would've thought the estimates would be much higher given over 1300 homes destroyed by this fire. Sad situation and still no precipitation in sight.
Looks like is turning extratropical.

AL, 14, 2011091612, , BEST, 0, 428N, 582W, 65, 983, HU
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
It is just nice seeing a little bit of Texas getting a little rain, first time in a long time there is isolated showers on my radar, now rain fall on the fires please.


Have some inflow coming off the gulf this morning
What a cool project. I'm sorry I missed it live.

I do wish VP Gore did not throw in statements that climate conservatives can latch onto as 'bogus'.

You don't sweat more when it's hot just because the air holds more moisture. You sweat more because you body needs to cool down.
He could say you see your sweat more when it is humid, like Florida vs. Arizona in the same heat because the warm air capacity is full in Florida but that gets complex. If you warm up air and it's capacity increases, you would seem to sweat less since it would evaporate faster... like I said, complex and easily turned around.

It would also help to humanize the opposition against the science to not call them deniers but "climate conservatives" showing their reluctance to change without being pejorative.

We can build a better, cleaner, healthier world together.
this is the history of today 2004

Ivan was a classical, long-lived Cape Verde hurricane that reached Category 5 strength three times on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS). It was also the strongest hurricane on record that far south east of the Lesser Antilles. Ivan caused considerable damage and loss of life as it passed through the Caribbean Sea. Link


i know were i was and we had a mess to clean up
Glad to hear Texas is getting some rain. Hope you get more.

The comet impacting the sun yesterday was impressive to me.
Quoting islander101010:
what about the invasion of jellies e. cen fl. worst in a lifetime


They were down south last week. Been 1/2 expecting them since the winds from the east came back but hadn't been to the beach since last weekend.

Climate change has favored the jellies the world over. It was one of those predicted things that are happening faster & in more numbers than anticipated. Hardly a week goes by that they don't clog up a nuclear reactor's cooling system somewhere.
Quoting Skyepony:


They were down south last week. Been 1/2 expecting them since the winds from the east came back but hadn't been to the beach since last weekend.

Climate change has favored the jellies the world over. It was one of those predicted things that are happening faster & in more numbers than anticipated. Hardly a week goes by that they don't clog up a nuclear reactor's cooling system somewhere.
I think oxygen depleted water and nutrient rich ocean water are a big reason for the jellyfish population explosion,we have them bad in the Chesapeake bay!
GM like i been saying all along the HURRICANE SEASON is over for the GOM on SEPT 24...another major cold front will be down here by next friday dropping temps in the low 40s n of the lake and in the upper 40s to low 50s south of the lake...so we can kiss the HURRICANE SEASON GOODBYE...thats what i was trying to get across to LEVI...i know the GOM and i can tell you without reservation its over for 2011....
NOGAPS LATEST RUN..Wave train and system up the spine of Florida

New blog
the ssts will drop 10 degrees when this cold front passes next friday ending the HURRICANE SEASON for the gom...the ones under the gun is TAMPA SOUTH...we are in the clear i pulled my shutters down yesterday...now its on to 2012 for the GOM...odds after sept 24th of getting hit by a hurricane on the gulfcoast


TEXAS 100/1

LOUISIANA 75/1

MISSISSIPPI 70/1

ALABAMA 60/1

PENSECOLA TO CEDAR KEYS FLA 40/1

THIS IS OF SEPT 24TH..
IM looking for a real cold winter and a wet one this year with a good possibility of the WHITE STUFF before xmas...
you can throw the CV season out the window for 2011...if anything would develop it would become a sea rider...all we have to woory about is development in the western and nw caribbean sea...this has a great chance affecting south fla from tampa south into the keys and the bahamas...these people need to stay on alert ..its not out of the question we could get a cat 5 easily with the ssts so high in the western caribbean sea...
40.0n62.0w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Maria's_12pmGMT_ATCF
39.8n62.2w, 42.8n58.2w are now the most recent positions
Starting 15Sept_6amGMT and ending 16Sept_6amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneMaria's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 16Sept_12pmGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 47.113n54.077w-YYT is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 16Sept_6amGMT*mapping,
and the island blob at 46.804n56.361w-FSP is the same for the 16Sept_12amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Maria's travel-speed was 49mph(78.9k/h) on a heading of 43.9degrees(NE)
H.Maria was headed toward passing ~39miles(~63kilometres) southeast of Newfoundland ~4&1/2.hours from now

Copy&paste 46.804n56.361w-fsp, 47.113n54.077w-yyt, 31.2n67.8w-33.7n67.0w, 33.7n67.0w-36.8n64.9w, 36.8n64.9w-39.8n62.2w, 39.8n62.2w-42.8n58.2w, yyt, 39.8n62.2w-46.360n52.582w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 16Sept_6amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed &heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
As far as I'm concerned the Hurricane season is basically over. It's nice a cool over here in the Mississippi Gulf Coast. It was actually chilly this morning and it is expected to remain like this for weeks which tells me that this is another early fall. So in between this long discussion arguing about how hot and dry it has become and how Man Made Global warming is the cause of it, I'm here in a ver ynice and cool environment right in the first weeks of september. By the way one of the dryest spots in this planet is also one of the coldest. So ole Al better take advantage of whatever little heat remains to make his point as to how are we causing global warming before it gets too cold.