WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Marco is born

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:42 PM GMT on October 06, 2008

Surprising Tropical Storm Marco has burst onto the scene in the extreme southern portion of the Gulf of Mexico. In just five hours, the tiny storm has spun up to near hurricane strength, a remarkable rapid intensification feat. Visible satellite loops show a tiny storm with a concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms, moving west-northwest at about 10 mph. In another example of why we need the Hurricane Hunters, an Air Force airplane that scrambled to fly Marco with little advance notice found top winds of 65 mph and a 998 mb pressure at 4:19 pm EDT. Satellite estimates using the traditional Dvorak Technique were still classifying Marco as a tropical depression with 35 mph winds this afternoon. It currently appears that Marco is not strengthening, as the latest pass by the Hurricane Hunters through the eye at 5:19 pm EDT found no change in pressure, and peak surface winds of about 60 mph.


Figure 1. Current satellite image Marco.

Marco won't be over water long, but its recent shift to a more northwesterly track may keep the storm over water long enough to allow it to become a Category 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts
The need is still great for relief in the regions hard-hit by Hurricane Ike. Please consider donating to the relief effort started by wunderground members Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie. Contributions to this portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It's amazing that it blossomed so quickly and is so small!

Thanks for the update Dr. M!
is Marco now the most name storms in a row??? where up too 13 name storms in a row
The little engine that could!
That thing looks like a little ball of fury.
thanks dr masters
it's so tiny you have to zoom in to see it...
The image above shows an eye has formed.
Cool Picture!
from the previous blog.. to plywood

exactly plywood. I haven't even hinted at it with them. Don't need to scare the daylights out of them just yet, I'll wait till cocktails on the lani at sunset :)

yes I know Im eveil :) LOL
Quoting jambev:
The image above shows an eye has formed.

Not at all.
This is almost an Opal scenario....
nope not yet
thanks Doc for the update and the new blog.

Amazing little storm
Latest image...
we are not to far to the 14th named storm in the eastern atlantic.
Quoting Dar9598:
we are not to far to the 14th named storm in the eastern atlantic.


Uhh Norbert was the 15th named storm. If 92E develops then it would be the 16th.
Bone, just make sure you find yourself a cozy spot away from them. can get ugly once they figure out they are going to be eating MRE's or cold turkey sandwiches instead of eating out
Looks to be undergoing some type of shear, what I do not know. Western edge appears to be slanted as if shear is ongoing.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Uhh Norbert was the 15th named storm. If 92E develops then it would be the 16th.


I believe they are referring to the system in the far Eastern Atlantic that all the models develop.
Okay now we have ahold of Marco; Bone you spoke of our atlantic mess, what models are hitting on it. you said the 12z were saying something?
Extreme, whats the N and O storms. I got a feeling we are going to be getting into the latter part of the names soon
At least this keeps the tropics blog a tropics blog. Good way to keep our minds off the stupid economy.
Stormchaser 2007 the most concern that we are talking is in the atlantic bassin not pacific.
Quoting extreme236:


I believe they are referring to the system in the far Eastern Atlantic that all the models develop.


Oh lol....For some reason I thought he/she was referring to the Eastern Pacific.
LOL plywood. Yea I have good MRE recipies they might not realize unless they see those lovely olive drab packages laying around LOL

ever notice the color of the bag is the same color the food comes out after it was um recycled
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Extreme, whats the N and O storms. I got a feeling we are going to be getting into the latter part of the names soon


Nana and Omar.
Wow! I was totally suprised by this! I was wrong about it not developing from last night, but so was everyone else who thought 96L was almost certain to fail to develop. Last night, I noticed a cyclonic turning of the precuror 96L over land, and the 18z models last night showed the GFDL and HWRF finally predicting a TS. The reason why the models are so bad at forecasting this storm is because it's so tiny and it's intensifying so rapidly! We could even have a hurricane soon, and yes this does have an eye, but an extremely tiny one. What an interesting season it's shaping up to be! We had Ike, a record-breaking monster in terms of largest hurricane wind field in the Atlantic ever recorded, and maybe Marco will be a record breaker for its intensification and small size. Large hurricanes tend to intensify rapidly in terms of pressure and IKE, and smaller storms can undergo very rapid intensification. Tracy, for example, was such a small storm, but it intensified into a cat. 4 very quickly and hit Darwin head-on, killing 71 people. Well, the good news with Marco is, it will only affect a small localised area and will weaken rapidly once it makes landfall. What an exciting season!
Quoting Dar9598:
Stormchaser 2007 the most concern that we are talking is in the atlantic bassin not pacific.


Never mind....I thought you were talking about the Pacific. I read your post over and saw you were referring to the Atlantic.
Quoting Tazmanian:
is Marco now the most name storms in a row??? where up too 13 name storms in a row




2005 Atlantic hurricane season
First storm formed: June 8, 2005
Last storm dissipated: January 6, 2006
Strongest storm: Wilma - 882 mbar (hPa) (26.06 inHg), 185 mph (295 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Total depressions: 31
Total storms: 28
Hurricanes: 15
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 7
Bone, I dont want to think about what you are referring to. I normally use the heating applicant for it. so I am fine, but 2 bottles of Tabasco sauce are recommended for those not used to eating them. that and a strong stomach
plywood the models are showing a CV system. The sat and QS pass from the area shows a low that just pop off the land around the 10N position.

the mm5-merge was on crack showing that system plus a system in the yuc straight. but that didnt have support from any other model
Quoting sammywammybamy:
** THE NATIONAL TROLL WARNING HAS ISSUED A SEVERE TEXASWISHCASTER ADVISORY**

**FROM 5:55PM 10/6/08 TO 8:00PM 10/7/08

THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DR.MASTERS WUNDERBLOG. PLEASE TAKE SHELTER IN A ROOM WITH NO NOISE POULTION. THE TROLL WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE MARCO HAS FORMED. THE REASON IS TEENAGERS FROM TEXAS ARE BEGGING TO GOD ON THE BLOG ABOUT HOW THEY WANT SCHOOL OFF TOMMOROW AND HOW THEY HATE TO GO TO SCHOOL TOMMOROW.. AND PEOPLE WHO JUST WANT THE STORM TO HIT THEM TO GET OFF WORK. PLEASE TAKE ALL CHILDREN IN DOORS PLACE A MATRESS ON YOUR HEAD AND HIDE.

PLEASE REPORT ALL DAMAGE TO THE BLOG ADMINSTARTOR..

** Forcaster Random ???


Why did you post that.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Wow! I was totally suprised by this! I was wrong about it not developing from last night, but so was everyone else who thought 96L was almost certain to fail to develop. Last night, I noticed a cyclonic turning of the precuror 96L over land, and the 18z models last night showed the GFDL and HWRF finally predicting a TS. The reason why the models are so bad at forecasting this storm is because it's so tiny and it's intensifying so rapidly! We could even have a hurricane soon, and yes this does have an eye, but an extremely tiny one. What an interesting season it's shaping up to be! We had Ike, a record-breaking monster in terms of largest hurricane wind field in the Atlantic ever recorded, and maybe Marco will be a record breaker for its intensification and small size. Large hurricanes tend to intensify rapidly in terms of pressure and IKE, and smaller storms can undergo very rapid intensification. Tracy, for example, was such a small storm, but it intensified into a cat. 4 very quickly and hit Darwin head-on, killin 71 people. Well, the good news with Marco is, it will only affect a small localised area and will weaken rapidly once it makes landfall. What an exciting season!


Marco does not have an eye, as there is no evidence that suggests it does. Recon reports, which are most reliable for structural analysis do not depict an eye.
I have a feeling the cmc and the mm-5 are one and the same model.
very true plywood very true.

Michal I belive the poster was asking if 13 named storms in a row was a record as far as I know this season every depression became named didnt 05 have a few that stood as TDs then disapated?
38. bwi
I'd like to see a satellite picture of Marco superimposed on a picture of Ike at his largest extent in the gulf.

Would be like Dr. Evil and mini-me.

Not to downplay Marco's destructive potential, but, for tropical systems at least, size does matter...
Not even close to an eye, if the shear keeps up. he won't be around for long either
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Not even close to an eye, if the shear keeps up. he won't be around for long either



LOL the 5-10 knots shear?
18Z GFS continues to develop the CV system...pretty low latitude and keeps it generally on a west to west-northwest track thru 96 hours.
plywood even the CMC did NOT show the carib system the mm5 did!! thats why I know I dont have to belive it LOL
Quoting MichaelSTL:




2005 Atlantic hurricane season
First storm formed: June 8, 2005
Last storm dissipated: January 6, 2006
Strongest storm: Wilma - 882 mbar (hPa) (26.06 inHg), 185 mph (295 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Total depressions: 31
Total storms: 28
Hurricanes: 15
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 7

I think he/she meant most tropical storms in a row when none failed to develop from a tropical storm to a depression, TD 10 from 2005 cut it off at nine.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Not even close to an eye, if the shear keeps up. he won't be around for long either


Vertical wind shear is anticyclonic at 5-10kts.
45. JLPR
lol mini Marco

its amazing such a little system has such winds =P
Uhh Norbert was the 15th named storm. If 92E develops then it would be the 16th.

---
wrong Norbert is the 14th name storm.. 15th system

Tropical Depression 5 didn't earn a name.
Quoting extreme236:
18Z GFS continues to develop the CV system...pretty low latitude and keeps it generally on a west to west-northwest track.


Could we see Nana from this system?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Uhh Norbert was the 15th named storm. If 92E develops then it would be the 16th.

---
wrong Norbert is the 14th name storm.. 15th system

Tropical Depression 5 didn't earn a name.


Oh I didnt mean named.
Quoting Bonedog:
plywood even the CMC did NOT show the carib system the mm5 did!! thats why I know I dont have to belive it LOL

mm5fsu-merge has been predicting the Carib system, which never formed, for about a week now. CMC was the first to predict formation of Marco, but oddly depicting it to only form when it would make landfall on Louisiana. The 18z GFDL and HWRF were the first to accurately predict Marco.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Why did you post that.


Just to make sure at least one Troll posted. LOL
48. Stormchaser2007 10:06 PM GMT on October 06, 2008

oh okay wording misunderstanding on my part.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


Could we see Nana from this system?


Its possible. It has an anticyclone over it right now, which should help protect it from shear. SSTs are still plenty warm for development out there.
yea and we were talking earlier today ont he othe rblog about how many 4 letter storms have been retired. Hope Nana if she forms doesn't follow suit
Taz looks like according to NRL in 1998 there were 14 consectative named systems in the Atlantic

LINK
Quoting bwi:
I'd like to see a satellite picture of Marco superimposed on a picture of Ike at his largest extent in the gulf.

Would be like Dr. Evil and mini-me.

Not to downplay Marco's destructive potential, but, for tropical systems at least, size does matter...


Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Quoting Bonedog:
yea and we were talking earlier today ont he othe rblog about how many 4 letter storms have been retired. Hope Nana if she forms doesn't follow suit

What about Kyle?
I guess the airforce needs to start spending some time in this blog if they were caught off guard by 96L.
There were a few of us that were watching 96L closely over the weekend.
And we also give 96L a decent chance of developing once it got into the BOC.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

How do you knwo EVERYTHING? Lol.
Quoting BenBlog:

What about Kyle?


It only caused 14 million dollars.
what about Kyle?
Marco looks like it's beginning to show the very beginnings of an early eye since 1830 UTC, but if this really is an early "eye", then the "eye" would only be about 3 km (2 mi) wide.
Small systems can become very intense. They just don't affect a very large area.
it hasn't been retired yet, we awere only talking about retired names 1954-2007 which was the list we were working from.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Small systems can become very intense. They just don't affect a very large area.


An example would be Hurricane Bret, it was a cat. 4, but was really small.
Tracy is the perfect example 30m windfield and spun to Cat 4 recently belived to be Cat 5.
Quoting Bonedog:
what about Kyle?

About the retiring thing.
Quoting Bonedog:
Tracy is the perfect example 30m windfield and spun to Cat 4 recently belived to be Cat 5.

Lol.
Ben whats funny about Tracy?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Marco looks like it's beginning to show the very beginnings of an early eye since 1830 UTC, but if this really is an early "eye", then the "eye" would only be about 3 km (2 mi) wide.


The last vortex message had the strongest winds just 2 miles from the center, which suggests that the eye would be about the same size.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


It only caused 14 million dollars.

Do you hear yourself
maybe not enough for retirement but you'd be bankrupt if you lost 14 mil
I think that Marco will become a cat. 1, and probably can become a cat. 2.
Quoting Bonedog:
Ben whats funny about Tracy?

Just abour recenly believed to be cat 5
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
I think that Marco will become a cat. 1, and probably can become a cat. 2.

I say disipate.
Quoting BenBlog:

I say disipate.


Then you haven't been looking at this system. This sucker has gone from a Disturbance to near Hurricane in 6 hours.
Link

There wasn't as much freely available storm info back in 1995, but Opal was an October storm--and pretty bad here in PC.
Bone the last time I was in here we were talking about MRE's and now I hear this about an anti-cyclone. what did I miss.
I'm confused are you saying names with four letters don't retire cause Stan Inez Dora Noel and Dean all break that rule
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
New Tropical Storm ... MARCO
Present Satellite picture ... MARCO
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... Caribbean - BOC - Texas (Hour 36 - 144)
CMC ... BOC (Hour 156)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 216)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 240)
CMC 00Z..
Hurricane IKE Pictures in Power Point Format ... From TropicTraveler (5MB)
Quoting BenBlog:

I say disipate.

ok how about no
Sorry--I keep screwing this up!
Anyone else having trouble loading the NRL navy tropical cyclones page? Since yesterday, either it has been super slow or it's not loading at all. Also, there's an interesting low south of the Kamchatka Peninsula. The remnants of Jangmi are north of Hawaii. The 8pm advisory and 18z models should be interesting for Marco.
Quoting btwntx08:

ok how about no

It's my opinion. I respect yours. Please respect mine.
Hello StormW!
Hurricane Hunters ... MARCO
86. 7544
the area at 60 w 20n seems to be there spining for 2 days days as it moves west could somthing form there
Quoting Cotillion:
The season that nearly has it all...

MARCO IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM FROM THE CENTER.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

(At this point, I'd like to clarify... Gilbert is no longer the biggest hurricane in terms of wind radii. Ike is.)


Gilbert is still probably the largest in term of isobaric which is predominantly used to determine the size of a hurricane.
GOM Low CLoud Product,..Large Link
Okay who killed the blog
Quoting Bonedog:
what about Kyle?

About the retiring thing.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Okay who killed the blog

What?
Tracking Information from the NHC

NHC Advisory : 02
Name : MARCO
Type : TROPICAL STORM
Position : 19.5, -94.7
Heading (degrees) : 295
Motion Speed (kts) : 8
Central Pressure (mb) : 998
Maximum Sustained Winds (kts) : 55
Maximum Wind Gusts (kts) : 65
Valid time : 21:00:00 GMT, October 06, 2008

Note: To convert wind speeds to MPH, multiply knots by 1.15 (i.e. add 15%)
Hey Orka
Do you have a Killer Whale in your pond?
Marco.............................................................................................POL O.

Soon to be a "Fish out of Water".

Sorry, couldn't resist.
can someone bring up a sat. image of the system we are all talking about other than Marco.
97. Inyo
If it weren't going to injure or kill people i'd almost call it cute.. it's so tiny!
Quoting MissNadia:
Hey Orka
Do you have a Killer Whale in your pond?

Nope, but have one on the wall in the TV room
99. rlk
Quoting hondaguy:
It's amazing that it blossomed so quickly and is so small!

Thanks for the update Dr. M!


The real question to me is whether it really intensified that rapidly, or whether the satellite estimates were just wrong. Early this morning (before it was even designated), it looked very circular, with some nice bands spinning off.


plywood: 58W 23N? that system..?
It reminds me of Tracy!
LOL
Its a tiny BLOB on the Sat. Image
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
New Tropical Storm ... MARCO
(The one in Dr. M's Blog)
Oh...
And Evenin' everyone!
.....
Go Rays!
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


plywood: 58W 23N? that system..?


That is a upper level low!
Well Marco just might be our next hurricane! Hmmm from wave to possible hurricane in 24 hrs. Well!
Quoting antonio28:


That is a upper level low!


He knows...

OK... I want to know who has been "molesting" the Mexican BOC radars...

Link

"Perdone las molestias que esto le ocasiona"

CRS
5 day model with possible western carribean storm
Um windy that model reads 18SEP!!!
Hmmmmmm Marco..
Looks it might pull a Humberto
Try and set some records?
I think its going to slow to do that isn't it?
Hey folks;

Just checkin' in from Austin today - we were supposed to get some rain here, but we're bone dry as of 1845...

Any chance that Marco might head this way, or is it too far south to even consider?
Hey gang! Long time no post!
I heard something about Marco???? At noon, this guy was just a TD. Is he going for the record or what?
Where is StormW's blog? Is it not featured anymore?
Marco looks good on visible images...fairly symmetric.
CPC outlook suggests above-average/increased likelihood for tropical cyclone development in the west/central Caribbean extending into the South GOMEX due to model guidance and favorable MJO this week and next week.
it was taken off of stormjunkie forecast model links and shows 20081006 as date on linkthis is where i got model from
Marco moving a little slower.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...19.7 N...95.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

OK... I want to know who has been "molesting" the Mexican BOC radars...

Link

"Perdone las molestias que esto le ocasiona"

CRS

LOL, after translating from web I believe it means "please excuse the occasional annoyance" or "appologies for the inconvinience".
Thats the smallest TS if I ever saw one... TS force winds only 30 miles across.
Tornado Warning east of Waco,Texas.
que es Senior Storm?
TWC said Marco had about 5thunderstorms.
Quoting NorthxCakalaky:
TWC said Marco had about 5thunderstorms.


Its very small
126. DDR
Marco looks like he's between 75 and 100 miles wide.
127. Vero1
000
AXNT20 KNHC 062354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008


TROPICAL STORM MARCO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 95.1W AT 07/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 70 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 6
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/
WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MARCO IS A RELATIVELY SMALL
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO ABOUT 30 NM FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
Quoting WindynEYW:
it was taken off of stormjunkie forecast model links and shows 20081006 as date on linkthis is where i got model from

The mm5fsu-gfs says 2008091812. Also I think StormW's blog isn't featured anymore.
hanna, he was here earlier, His blog is still in the same place---just have to type in his name in blog directory to get to it or click on his name when he posts.
Good evening!!!...
Evening StormW good to see you,
Being working on a little UTC clock for those Time challenge folks... hehe. Hope to have a link soon for download.
Evening all

For those that missed it earlier, here is the latest update on the relief effort.

Ike Relief Update 10-6-08

Afternoon all, the push to continue to keep supplies rolling to the Gulf Coast continues. This morning we shipped out three sets of packages with medical supplies and some cleaning supplies. The first set of two boxes went to the Bridge City Fire Department. It contained burn kits, bandages, first aid kits, Neosoprin, an air splint and more. The second set of boxes went to Eagle Heights Fellowship in Baytown. This is a shelter being run by a local pastor and seems to be one of the few shelters in this area that will remain open for the next four to six weeks. The supplies in these three boxes included CPR kits, first aid kits, disinfectant wipes, gloves, and more. The third set of three boxes were shipped to EmmyRose which she will personally deliver to the San Leon/Baycliff area. They included many of the same items listed above. We have estimated the value of these seven boxes to be between $4000 and $5000 which we shipped for just under $350.

We are also continuing to work with several corporations in order to procure donated goods which have been specifically requested by Chambers, Harris, and Orange Counties. Will continue to update on those efforts after we have solid commitments from each. Over 5,000 square feet of warehouse space has also been donated to us in Atlanta; a centrally locate metropolis. This will allow us to have corporate donated goods sent to a central location from which they can then be kitted and transported to various distribution points and shelters. A trucker and truck which will pick up and deliver goods for the cost of fuel. With all of this going on we are also entering the next phase of or our push to make Portlight a sustainable entity that will be able to facilitate the needs of the under served, unserved, and forgotten people for years to come. In order to help support this mindset we are beginning a monthly donor program. There will be more on this in the next few days as well as progress on getting supplies in hands; please consider what you may be able to give on a monthly basis. Thanks!

More supplies on the way...
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

The mm5fsu-gfs says 2008091812. Also I think StormW's blog isn't featured anymore.


Random and very obvious.
Stormjunkie, I greatly appreciate all your guys efforts to aid the victims of Hurricane Ike. Continue the great work!
Take a look at this from the NWS in PR...October could be quite active:

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AGGRESSIVE IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER WESTERN AFRICA COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SAME GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE DEVELOPED
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS OCEANIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS.

Quoting blairkiel:
What are the chances of this hitting New Orleans as a cat 5.

I am worried that New Orleans couldn't handle that type of storm.

When will they begin calling for evacuations?


What? Marco is going to Mexico...its not going to even be close to NOLA.
137. extreme236 12:05 AM GMT on October 07, 2008
Stormjunkie, I greatly appreciate all your guys efforts to aid the victims of Hurricane Ike. Continue the great work!
Action: Quote | Ignore User


I second that!
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening all

For those that missed it earlier, here is the latest update on the relief effort.

Ike Relief Update 10-6-08

Afternoon all, the push to continue to keep supplies rolling to the Gulf Coast continues. This morning we shipped out three sets of packages with medical supplies and some cleaning supplies. The first set of two boxes went to the Bridge City Fire Department. It contained burn kits, bandages, first aid kits, Neosoprin, an air splint and more. The second set of boxes went to Eagle Heights Fellowship in Baytown. This is a shelter being run by a local pastor and seems to be one of the few shelters in this area that will remain open for the next four to six weeks. The supplies in these three boxes included CPR kits, first aid kits, disinfectant wipes, gloves, and more. The third set of three boxes were shipped to EmmyRose which she will personally deliver to the San Leon/Baycliff area. They included many of the same items listed above. We have estimated the value of these seven boxes to be between $4000 and $5000 which we shipped for just under $350.

We are also continuing to work with several corporations in order to procure donated goods which have been specifically requested by Chambers, Harris, and Orange Counties. Will continue to update on those efforts after we have solid commitments from each. Over 5,000 square feet of warehouse space has also been donated to us in Atlanta; a centrally locate metropolis. This will allow us to have corporate donated goods sent to a central location from which they can then be kitted and transported to various distribution points and shelters. A trucker and truck which will pick up and deliver goods for the cost of fuel. With all of this going on we are also entering the next phase of or our push to make Portlight a sustainable entity that will be able to facilitate the needs of the under served, unserved, and forgotten people for years to come. In order to help support this mindset we are beginning a monthly donor program. There will be more on this in the next few days as well as progress on getting supplies in hands; please consider what you may be able to give on a monthly basis. Thanks!

More supplies on the way...


Nice... God bless you for all help and the same goes for Pat... and Presslord. :)
wow...LOL...where is it?!?!?! :)

so we go from one of the largest in the GoM to one of the smallest thunderstorm clusters i've ever seen!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

OK... I want to know who has been "molesting" the Mexican BOC radars...

Link

"Perdone las molestias que esto le ocasiona"

CRS

You may know this, and if you do then sorry for saying but the verb Molestar actually means to annoy.
Quoting extreme236:


What? Marco is going to Mexico...its not going to even be close to NOLA.


prob troll 236...
Evening All...
Thanks 236, NC, and Wx

Still can't get over the fact that only 14 homes in Bridge City did not have water in them.
of course, then there was Cat 4 Tropical Cyclone Tracy! :)

Quoting extreme236:


What? Marco is going to Mexico...its not going to even be close to NOLA.


LOL I cant find that persons post so I guess I ignored them long ago for another stupid post like that one.
140. LOL...sad, but true :)
Quoting hurricanehanna:
que es Senior Storm?

What is Mr. storm?
I think you meant: ¿Dónde está el señior Storm?
do you think we could get too the W storm this year
Statement as of 7:07 PM CDT on October 06, 2008


... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 730 PM CDT for north
central Limestone and west central Freestone counties...

At 707 PM CDT... trained weather spotters reported power flashes in
Mexia which may be associated with a tornado on the ground. This
tornado was located near Mexia... moving northeast at 26 mph.

The tornado will be near...
Wortham by 715 PM CDT...
Kirvin by 725 PM CDT...

Take cover in a basement... or on the lowest floor of your home in an
interior closet or bathroom. Use blankets or pillows for cover.

Do not stop under bridges or Highway overpasses since they offer no
protection from tornado winds.

This developing tornado may be obscured by rain. If you wait until
the tornado is visible before taking cover it will be too late!



Link to this storm in Texas.

Link
LOL pearl/aggie

you're able to notice Norbert and than look at Marco and think is that really a cyclone, =P
Marco = Tropical Cyclone Tracy?
Taz I don't think so.. only two months left of the year and to get towards the "W" name is about 10 cyclones.
157. no, no, no...that wasn't a forecast. i was merely trying to point out that even a small storm can be intense...not really saying that Marco will be intense.
Quoting KNAStorms92:

What is Mr. storm?
I think you meant: ¿Dónde está el señior Storm?


lol - i think YOU meant donde esta storm W? no senor in it.
ok HadesGodWyvern
160. hahaha..too funny :)
Quoting voortex:


lol - i think YOU meant donde esta storm W? no senor in it.

Right you are!
OK if Marco gets to hurricane status by 5 am, will he be the fastest intensifying hurricane of all time, from tropical depression to hurricane in 18 hours? Humberto took 24 hours from first advisory as a TD to first hurricane advisory.

Link

vikings 31

saints 20
Norbert...now there's a great name! just add coke bottle glasses and a bowtie! :)
i wonder if Marco would have even been named 30-40 years ago...doubtful
Quoting pearlandaggie:
i wonder if Marco would have even been named 30-40 years ago...doubtful


Maybe not, but it has the qualifications to be one, without a doubt.
this is why it's pathetic...
This SAB estimate displays Marco's rather unimpressive IR organization, probably in part due to it being so small. Visible imagery organization is much more impressive than IR.

T2.0/2.0 MARCO -- Atlantic Ocean
168. LOL...i guess. i have the qualifications to be a used car salesman, but that doesn't mean i should be one :)
So, if Marco goes extrop, does it become a supercell? (/tongue in cheek)
165. just trying to pick a fight, huh? LOL
Quoting pearlandaggie:
this is why it's pathetic...


It may be pathetic in size, but those people in Mexico could be surprised to see a hurricane come there way out of no where. Even right now its packing 65 MPH winds.
172. superdud? LOL
Quoting pearlandaggie:
168. LOL...i guess. i have the qualifications to be a used car salesman, but that doesn't mean i should be one :)


lol...but really, there is no logical reason as to why it shouldn't be a tropical cyclone. It has a closed circulation, fairly well-organized. 55knot winds, low sfc pressures. Persistent, etc.
174. woooooo! LOL when i lived in Dallas, we had thunderstorms WAY worse than that.

/236, not making fun of ya...just poking the bear :)
176. i can think of one very good reason....insurance rates! this will add another storm to the total that will be used as ammunition to raise insurance rates even though the damage would be minimal even if this reaches hurricane status.

/not that i disagree with the storm's "technical" classification.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
176. i can think of one very good reason....insurance rates! this will add another storm to the total that will be used as ammunition to raise insurance rates even though the damage would be minimal even if this reaches hurricane status.


You make a good economic point lol
179. LOL! i should know as all of our rates are going to increase after Ike...however, come to think of it, they were increasing before Ike as well!
Quoting voortex:

vikings 31

saints 20

GRRRRRR
Quoting pearlandaggie:
165. just trying to pick a fight, huh? LOL


just swattin the ole beehive...lol
i mean, seriously, even if this thing manages to sprout a 65kt vector in its circulation before landfall, it will have a hurricane wind swath of what, 5 miles?!?!?! LOL
182. i prefer the euphemism "poking the bear"! LOL
Quoting pearlandaggie:
182. i prefer the euphemism "poking the bear"! LOL


i can't
185. shame, shame, shame! LOL
Quoting StormJunkie:
Thanks 236, NC, and Wx

Still can't get over the fact that only 14 homes in Bridge City did not have water in them.

Hey Storm Junkie, I was in Bridge City today, been here since the 14th it's really bad there, also orange,sabine pass really all over in that region.
Sheri


01R.NONAME - 20 kts 1006 hPa
189. JRRP
at the moment is difficult that the african system arrive to the Carib
all the models show it out to sea
Link
Getting July rains here in October!

The dry season here in central Florida is from October to November, then we get more rain over the winter, not super wet but definitely not too dry, then again in March through May.


But we have been getting soaked with consistent deep tropical rains.

In fact so tropical like that the NWS confirms that radar estimates are more than 50% below actuall rainfall amounts since yesterday.

We have had over 7 inches of rain since yesterday even though radar estimates are only about 3 inches.


Which means the the rains are "tropical cyclone in nature" because the normal radar severely underestimates rain intensity, with weaker radar echos and precip rates then whats actually goin on.
188. Noname...sounds Asian! LOL
Models continue to show some development out in the central atlantic which seems possible but anything out in that region is likely to turn to north sooner rather then later.

Hopefully the quiet October will continue with no signifcant threats to the U.S.

Quoting NorthxCakalaky:
Statement as of 7:07 PM CDT on October 06, 2008


... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 730 PM CDT for north
central Limestone and west central Freestone counties...

At 707 PM CDT... trained weather spotters reported power flashes in
Mexia which may be associated with a tornado on the ground. This
tornado was located near Mexia... moving northeast at 26 mph.

The tornado will be near...
Wortham by 715 PM CDT...
Kirvin by 725 PM CDT...

Take cover in a basement... or on the lowest floor of your home in an
interior closet or bathroom. Use blankets or pillows for cover.

Do not stop under bridges or Highway overpasses since they offer no
protection from tornado winds.

This developing tornado may be obscured by rain. If you wait until
the tornado is visible before taking cover it will be too late!



Link to this storm in Texas.

Link
See a couple of Hook Echos....
Creepy..
Interesting week coming up :)

latest solar weather update from SOHO...quiet, very quiet.
JRRP it is right but most of the models are over aggressive for strengthening to a PERHAPS MAJOR HURRICANE and have a vertical track to the 40 w all that depends to the ridge too.
197. JRRP
Quoting Dar9598:
JRRP it is right but most of the models are over aggressive for strengthening to a PERHAPS MAJOR HURRICANE and have a vertical track to the 40 w all that depends to the ridge too.

yeah is true
MIMIC has a longer line of those things than I think I've seen yet. I remember seeing a saved bit after Katrina (different site) with 6-8 of those, saying it was a line of ships with nuclear war heads into the storm to turn it...lol. Really doubt that's happening over MX right now.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Interesting week coming up :)



The caribbean is a hot spot at this time of the year but iam not buying into the MM5 at this time.
hurricane23 even that it depends to the ridge if it seems to be building but the more reasonable track is like Ingrid and Karen in late september 2007 or 2003 Kate and Nicholas in a more westerly track with steady strengthening.
Would like to see other major models rather then the NOGAPS/CMC and MM5.
198. you don't recognize those? those are pelicans migrating westward! LOL they're hot...that's why they're red on IR!
Quoting Dar9598:
hurricane23 even that it depends to the ridge if it seems to be building but the more reasonable track is like Ingrid and Karen in late september 2007 or 2003 Kate and Nicholas in a more westerly track with steady strengthening.


Doupt we'll see any U.S. threats out from central/eastern atlantic.
203. better watch that language, Adrian...before you're labeled too "America-centric"! LOL
also hurricane23 between u.s and central atlantic there are the lesser antilles remember.
The SHIPS model now brings Marco up to hurricane strength in 12 hours.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCO (AL132008) 20081007 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081007 0000 081007 1200 081008 0000 081008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 95.1W 20.3N 96.9W 20.3N 98.9W 20.4N 101.3W
BAMD 19.7N 95.1W 20.2N 96.5W 20.6N 97.8W 20.7N 98.9W
BAMM 19.7N 95.1W 20.2N 96.8W 20.3N 98.6W 20.4N 100.6W
LBAR 19.7N 95.1W 20.6N 96.3W 21.5N 97.3W 22.5N 98.3W
SHIP 55KTS 67KTS 73KTS 74KTS
DSHP 55KTS 67KTS 47KTS 33KTS

has anyone ever seen a model validation on the SHIPS intensity model? seems like that thing rarely gets it right.........
SHIP turns everything into a hurricane.
Looks like that disturbance north of the antilles has a spin and some convection on it. Could Nana be on its way?
alright...out for the evening, mateys! LOL
Quoting Dar9598:
also hurricane23 between u.s and central atlantic there are the lesser antilles remember.


Buddy no offence but been tracking tropical cyclones for 15 years i think i know what areas could be impacted by a tropical cyclone.I meant a significant threat to the united states seems low in my view.Anything that developes out in the central/eastern atlantic always has the potential to bring problems for the islands.
209. who's making up these freaking names? (rhetorical question) Nana??? Norbert??? i can think of many "N" names much better than those....it's as if we're at the end of the list and the other "N" names have been retired! LOL
Quoting hurricane23:
SHIP turns everything into a hurricane.


Not really...this is an active tropical cyclone (sure for invests its too bullish), and is a fairly reliable statistical intensity model used by the NHC.
Its been Horrendous season for the united states in 08 hopefully this season has nothing left in it for U.S.
Quoting hurricane23:
Its been Horrendous season for the united states in 08 hopefully this season has nothing left in it for U.S.


Yeah I agree. A lot of the northern Gulf Coast is thankfully starting to be more safe from hurricane strikes as we progress closer to the end of the season. Hopefully the US is done with canes and TS's this season.
wind radii is ridiculous on our day time thunderstorm.
Jeff Masters said in his October outlook that the east coast threat is higher than normal. I'm not sure we can simply buy model solution with something that hasn't even formed. Bertha was also suppose to curve out to sea like the GFS is showing and look how far west it ended up and Ike was too. Look how far north Ike got and the high slammed him into Cuba.
Quoting hurricane23:
Its been Horrendous season for the united states in 08 hopefully this season has nothing left in it for U.S.


I know! We currently have this season 860 direct deaths, and 52 billion dollars in damage. Let's hope this won't happen next year.
Quoting hurricane23:
wind radii is ridiculous on our day time thunderstorm.


Well a day time thunderstorm that packs a punch...guess its small size allowed it to spin up so quickly.
Oh my...early this morning a disturbance and now..tiny little Marco!! Pretty much all are tiny compared to watching Ike come at you on radar.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Good evening all!
Not tropical-related but very interesting:

Asteroid on collision course with Earth Monday night, UA scientists discover
Posted: Oct 6, 2008 06:17 PM
Updated: Oct 6, 2008 07:30 PM

Scientists at the University of Arizona have discovered a very small asteroid that is on course to hit Earth Monday night at about 7:45 p.m. Tucson time.

It's path is targeting an area in northern Sudan.

The stone is too small to cause any harm, but scientists expect a very spectacular light show as the intergalactic rock burns up in the atmosphere.

Richard Kowalski, a member of the Catalina Sky Survey team at the UA, discovered the object with the team's 60-inch telescope on Mount Lemmon in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson.

The discovery marks the first time astronomers found an object in space with nearly a 100 percent chance of hitting our planet.

Scientists measure the hurtling asteroid to be about six-and-a-half feet going at the rate of about 7.5 miles per second.

Ed Beshore, also of UA's Catalina Sky Survey, isn't sure how the rock will react when it hits the planet's atmosphere.

"Whether it will survive entry through Earth's atmosphere depends on its composition," he says. "But it is sure to create a spectacular sight for those fortunate enough to see it at night."

They liken the upcoming collision the space rock will have with Earth's skies like a stone skipping on water.

Roughly one out of every 20 asteroids is iron, so this one is probably a stony asteroid, Beshore said. Even if this asteroid is iron and reaches the ground intact, the predicted impact area is largely uninhabited, and the danger to individuals is small.

The Catalina Sky Survey last year broke all records for discoveries of near-Earth objects, or NEOs. The survey found more than 450 NEOs in 2007.


Good thing it isn't very large...
Quoting StormW:
217. Drakoen 9:18 PM EDT on October 06, 2008
Jeff Masters said in his October outlook that the east coast threat is higher than normal. I'm not sure we can simply buy model solution with something that hasn't even formed. Bertha was also suppose to curve out to sea like the GFS is showing and look how far west it ended up and Ike was too. Look how far north Ike got and the high slammed him into Cuba


Well put Drak...I was mentioning in my synopsis this afternoon...the GFS had the suposed system recurving, and sharply I may add. But, the early morning steering layers forecast maps indicated that anything staying at or below 15N, would make it further west...and the GFS steering forecast was one of them. The GFS is notorious for wanting to send a system north right away.


GFS has poleward bias.
Hey StormW, Hurricane23 and Drak!
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


I know! We currently have this season 860 direct deaths, and 52 billion dollars in damage. Let's hope this won't happen next year.

we got a two years of devastation 04 05 then two years of nothing for us anyway 06 07 then ?two years of detestation?

Is it just me or does Marco look a little sickly now Maybe it's trying to become a tornado lol


Good thing it isn't very large...

Whoa, send Bruce Willis up to blow that up!!
charles, come south and be a beachbum..lots better to layout on the sand than in the snow!..lol
Quoting all4hurricanes:

we got a two years of devastation 04 05 then two years of nothing for us anyway 06 07 then ?two years of detestation?

Is it just me or does Marco look a little sickly now Maybe it's trying to become a tornado lol


Ummm... 2007 was pretty bad in the Caribbean... if a Cat 5 hit the U.S., damages would be like a trillion dollars (all relative; Cat 1-2s in the U.S. cause far more monetary damage than Cat 5s in Central America due to wealth and people in the U.S. not knowing how stupid it is to live right on the coasts or in cheaply constructed houses)...
Does anybody know of an Atlantic storm smaller than Marco? Even Tracy(Indian Ocean)couldn't have been much smaller than Marco, especially in the last few frames.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Good thing it isn't very large...

Whoa, send Bruce Willis up to blow that up!!


We probably don't have to worry about one that large, looks to be the size of Pluto (LOL).
Texas not doing good tonight.

at 834 PM CDT... trained weather spotters reported a tornado over
west central Anderson County... moving northeast at 25 mph.
Spotter groups reported a tornado on the ground in Montalba and
damage to houses in Tennessee Colony.

Quoting MichaelSTL:


We probably don't have to worry about one that large, looks to be the size of Pluto (LOL).


Actually measuring its the size of the Moon.

As Long as the moon doesn't come crashing into us, I think it wont be that horrific, still horrific.
I may need my magnifying glass but I guess I better keep an eye on Marco:')
239. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Good thing it isn't very large...

Whoa, send Bruce Willis up to blow that up!!

Good history!!!!!!!!
Watching the Sudan meteor impact live on Orbiter Space Flight Simulator, simulating the impact. Getting close.
at 834 PM CDT... trained weather spotters reported a tornado over
south central Bay of Campeche... moving west at 7 mph.
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
at 834 PM CDT... trained weather spotters reported a tornado over
south central Bay of Campeche... moving west at 7 mph.


LOL!
do you think that Marco has set a new record for the smallets name storm evere record???
This thunderstorm is stronger than the tropical storm!

-Reported 70mph gust
-Tornado (Damage to houses)
-Hail >2 Cloud top was 45,000
Quoting extreme236:


It may be pathetic in size, but those people in Mexico could be surprised to see a hurricane come there way out of no where. Even right now its packing 65 MPH winds.
How big is the Wind Field?
Quoting Tazmanian:
do you think that Marco has set a new record for the smallets name storm evere record???


If you go by windfield, I have seen several other storms with a 30 mile windfield. The convection however looks like one tiny thunderstorm, have seen many (individual) thunderstorms that are much larger than that. Radar would certainly be interesting if we had any where it is.
It would probably look like this on radar, and be about the same size:

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Actually measuring its the size of the Moon.

As Long as the moon doesn't come crashing into us, I think it wont be that horrific, still horrific.


the moon is moving away from us
Quoting NorthxCakalaky:
This thunderstorm is stronger than the tropical storm!

-Reported 70mph gust
-Tornado (Damage to houses)
-Hail >2 Cloud top was 45,000


Not 30 miles... I'll even give you ten.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


If you go by windfield, I have seen several other storms with a 30 mile windfield. The convection however looks like one tiny thunderstorm, have seen many (individual) thunderstorms that are much larger than that. Radar would certainly be interesting if we had any where it is.
almost tornado size
Hurricane IKE Pictures in Power Point Format ... From TropicTraveler (5MB)
Marco
there it is gone

lol
exactly Drakoen when the GFS develop a system that way they recurve them like in 2007 Dean Ingrid and Karen and this year Bertha even Ike and Josephine recurving well before 20n near 50w.
So for possible "NANA" i will say like a 2003 Fabian or even Nicholas nearly 5 years ago on a more westerly track.
Marco will probably do less damage than this storm Wheatland Area Tornado
BEGINNING TIME 402 PM LOCATION 1.5 NE PELL LAKE /WALWORTH CO./ ENDING TIME 417 PM LOCATION 2.4 NW PADDOCK LAKE /KENOSHA CO./ DURATION 15 MINUTES EF-SCALE EF-3 PATH LENGTH 10.8 MILES MAX WINDS 150-160 MPH MAX WIDTH 200 YARDS DEATHS 0 INJURIES 15The tornado that went through the Wheatland/New Munster area in Western Kenosha County has been given a preliminary rating of EF-3, with estimated top winds between 150-160 mph, by the National Weather Service Storm Survey Team. This places the tornadic winds at the higher portion of the EF-3 scale, which ranges from 136 mph to 165 mph.

Information about the EF tornado rating system.

The 15 injuries that occurred were all minor injuries. This was the first strong tornado (EF-2 or stronger) in Kenosha County since Fujita Scale ratings began. This was the first strong tornado in Walworth County since 1980.

The initial spin-up point of the tornado appears to be approximately 1.5 miles northeast of Pell Lake, just northeast of US Highway 12 and west of County Highway U near West Court. The tornado spun up at about 4:02 PM.

The tornado damage path was continuous generally to the east northeast for approximately 10.8 miles. The last damage observed was about 2.4 miles northwest of Paddock Lake along 41st Street – west of State Highway 75 and north of County Highway NN. The tornado likely ended at about 4:17 PM. Below is a map of the tornado track.

How cool is Marco's feed air? Is he really tropical at all, or is he at least partly polar? I admit that this would be most unusual--I never heard of a polar low south of 39N before. But the very small size and rapid spinup are more typical of polar lows.
Quoting JRRP:
at the moment is difficult that the african system arrive to the Carib
all the models show it out to sea
Link

so far so good let's hope stay that way but seems like Nana will be there in 48 to 72 hours.
Quoting tropics21:
Marco will probably do less damage than this storm Wheatland Area Tornado


Or the derecho that hit me in 2006 with winds to 100 mph measured, 30% of all trees in the area blown down, leaving a million without power, and 9 deaths.
Quoting Snowfire:
How cool is Marco's feed air? Is he really tropical at all, or is he at least partly polar? I admit that this would be most unusual--I never heard of a polar low south of 39N before. But the very small size and rapid spinup are more typical of polar lows.


SOUNDS LOGICALY IMPOSIBLE
tropics - DEATHS 0

I pray you are correct.
Quoting Seastep:
tropics - DEATHS 0

I pray you are correct.
Yes there were no deaths the tornado spun up on January 7th 2008 Imagine that in January We had three days of 60's warm weather for january and this thing came out of nowhere a lot of damage though, the it got Cold and snowed three days later. so never count the hurricane season over just because it's late in the season
Quoting tropics21:
Yes there were no deaths the tornado spun up on January 7th 2008 Imagine that in January We had three days of 60's warm weather for january and this thing came out of nowhere a lot of damage though, the it got Cold and snowed three days later. so never count the hurricane season over just because it's late in the season


Very true. Lots of notorious storms can and do form in October and November, like Mitch, Lenny, Keith, and of course, Wilma.

Also, I'm sure some recall that 2006 disturbance in the Carribean, that formed in January, and nearly became a tropical depression.
Trolls.

Time to leave. Goodnight everyone.

Quoting NorthxCakalaky:
Trolls.

Time to leave. Goodnight everyone.

who are you calling a troll? poof
Size aside, the convection looks pretty nice and round on the satellite image in this blog:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Size aside, the convection looks pretty nice and round on the satellite image in this blog:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Anyone know the size of the eye?
000
WTNT43 KNHC 070232
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008

MINIATURE MARCO HAS MAINTAINED ONE SMALL COLD-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER...ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE STATE OF DELAWARE...OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT
AT 55 KT IN LINE WITH THE LAST AIR FORCE RECON DATA...EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB. I HAVE WORKED SOME TINY TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
BEFORE...BUT HORIZONTALLY-CHALLENGED MARCO COULD BE THE SMALLEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.
Forecaster Stacy Stewart, in the 10pm Marco discussion, says the following...

"I HAVE WORKED SOME TINY TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC BEFORE...BUT HORIZONTALLY-CHALLENGED MARCO COULD BE THE SMALLEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD."
Quoting tropics21:
Anyone know the size of the eye?


It would probably look like this:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

That said, in one of the vortex messages, the maximum surface winds were measured just 2 miles away from the center; i.e. radius of maximum winds = 2 miles:
Quoting Tazmanian:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 070232
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008

MINIATURE MARCO HAS MAINTAINED ONE SMALL COLD-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER...ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE STATE OF DELAWARE...OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT
AT 55 KT IN LINE WITH THE LAST AIR FORCE RECON DATA...EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB. I HAVE WORKED SOME TINY TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
BEFORE...BUT HORIZONTALLY-CHALLENGED MARCO COULD BE THE SMALLEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.
Interesting thanks for the post
your welcome
Where did that little thing come from? I logged on to check my local radar and there's this Marco... headed--appropriately--towards Mexico.
Good Night all Have a good one see you tomorrow
Do you think Marco will strengthen tonight? I personally have no clue.
Quoting Hawkeyewx:
Forecaster Stacy Stewart, in the 10pm Marco discussion, says the following...

"I HAVE WORKED SOME TINY TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC BEFORE...BUT HORIZONTALLY-CHALLENGED MARCO COULD BE THE SMALLEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD."
08 HURRICANE SEASON continues it's march into a record breaking year we've see this over the season and it will continue till the end of the season 1320 hrs from now
onward till the end
^HSI Hang Seng 16,803.76 5:59AM ET Down 878.64 (4.97%)
Hi!
luckly it is not the strength of Tracy increadable that the smallest TC on record caused more damage than the largest.
i'd say if it doesn't increase convection by 15 miles it could beat tracys record.
Quoting Vortex95:
i'd say if it doesn't increase convection by 15 miles it could beat tracys record.

I have to admit.. its the smallest one I have ever seen
I think Cyclone Tracy's record for being the smallest cyclone could be in jeopardy!
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
New Tropical Storm ... MARCO
Present Satellite picture ... MARCO
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... Caribbean - BOC - Texas (Hour 36 - 144)
CMC ... BOC (Hour 156)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 216)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 240)
CMC 00Z..
Hurricane IKE Pictures in Power Point Format ... From TropicTraveler (5MB)
Its better to have Tracy's record broken, rather than Tip's record!
Hey - for those of us who are vertically challenged - its about time there was somthing our size around.
Quoting Coldwaterlover:
Its better to have Tracy's record broken, rather than Tip's record!


Aint that the truth. Could you imagine something breaking Tips record trying to fit into the gulf of mexico. O_O
I don't think that we need any more records broken this season. Lets keep it to compact size please.
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Aint that the truth. Could you imagine something breaking Tips record trying to fit into the gulf of mexico. O_O


The Gulf isn't even that large; really doubt the Atlantic could ever support a storm the size of Tip; not enough room.
Lets hope nothing that big ever does spin up again, and if it does, keep it a fish if there's room!
Quoting zoomiami:
I don't think that we need any more records broken this season. Lets keep it to compact size please.


Lets hope this is wrong then
Interesting week coming up :)
Quoting MichaelSTL:


The Gulf isn't even that large; really doubt the Atlantic could ever support a storm the size of Tip; not enough room.


I said trying. Yea I know it's not realistic. (I say realistic because you can never say never.)
ASTEROID 2008 TC3: A small, newly-discovered asteroid named 2008 TC3 is approaching Earth and chances are good that it will hit. Measuring only a few meters across, the space rock poses no threat to people or structures on the ground, but it should create a spectacular fireball, releasing about a kiloton of energy as it disintegrates and explodes in the high atmosphere. At least one expert estimates that atmospheric entry will occur on Oct 7th at 0246 UTC over northern Sudan. Stay tuned to http://spaceweather.com for more information and updates to this developing story.

sorry for being off-topic but i found it interesting to share.
Thanks zoo... humor is invaluable... in perspective... and there's no place I'd rather be.

Goodnight all.
Sorry, forgot to thank Orca too. GN.
Quoting Seastep:
Sorry, forgot to thank Orca too. GN.

G'nite
297. JRRP


Quoting 4rtMyersGuy:
Orca...I guess it's off limits to make "Short People" jokes....so, I'm not going bring up you and that 50 degree F pond you are always wading into....

Ohhh that was cheap.. true.. but cheap
Quoting 4rtMyersGuy:
Oh, on a serious note, what effect do citric acids have on porcelein....this message will self destruct.....


As long as its totally organic.. nada
301. 7544
hmm is our ull at around 20n and 60 west trying to become tropical at this hour nice convection forming
301. 7544 4:09 AM GMT on October 07, 2008
hmm is our ull at around 20n and 60 west trying to become tropical at this hour nice convection forming


Stop with the wishcasting. The tropics are done. NHC will name 1 or 2 more "ship" storms deep in the Atlantic to meet quota for the year.
Thx Orca....
Quoting Chucktown:
301. 7544 4:09 AM GMT on October 07, 2008
hmm is our ull at around 20n and 60 west trying to become tropical at this hour nice convection forming


Stop with the wishcasting. The tropics are done. NHC will name 1 or 2 more "ship" storms deep in the Atlantic to meet quota for the year.




You know that they don't do that... else, why didn't they name the storm that hit South Carolina a week ago? But did name Laura? Because the former wasn't tropical enough to qualify as a tropical or subtropical storm. I really wish people would stop with this "NHC names storms only to meet their predictions" nonsense, or act like they are smarter than the NHC... I will put people who keep saying stuff like that on iggy...
Quoting Chucktown:
301. 7544 4:09 AM GMT on October 07, 2008
hmm is our ull at around 20n and 60 west trying to become tropical at this hour nice convection forming


Stop with the wishcasting. The tropics are done. NHC will name 1 or 2 more "ship" storms deep in the Atlantic to meet quota for the year.

Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Wanna bet anything on that statement of yours?
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... Caribbean - BOC - Texas (Hour 36 - 144)
CMC ... BOC (Hour 156)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 216)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 240)
Smallest tropical cyclone on record:
Tropical cyclone Tracy. Gale force winds extended only 30mi from the center.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Tracy

Marco could indeed be the smallest tropical cyclone ever!
Quoting MichaelSTL:




You know that they don't do that... else, why didn't they name the storm that hit South Carolina a week ago? But did name Laura? Because the former wasn't tropical enough to qualify as a tropical or subtropical storm. I really wish people would stop with this "NHC name storms only to meet their predictions" nonsense...


What is this American trait that all Gov agency's have some kind of ulterior motive?
or Hidden agenda
304. MichaelSTL 4:17 AM GMT on October 07, 2008
Quoting Chucktown:
301. 7544 4:09 AM GMT on October 07, 2008
hmm is our ull at around 20n and 60 west trying to become tropical at this hour nice convection forming

Stop with the wishcasting. The tropics are done. NHC will name 1 or 2 more "ship" storms deep in the Atlantic to meet quota for the year.





You know that they don't do that... else, why didn't they name the storm that hit South Carolina a week ago? But did name Laura? Because the former wasn't tropical enough to qualify as a tropical or subtropical storm. I really wish people would stop with this "NHC name storms only to meet their predictions" nonsense...


That's why NHC uses a range when it comes to storm predictions for the year. Gives them a little "wiggle" room as opposed to CSU who puts out a specific number then updates 5 times during the season. C'mon

309. 7544
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Wanna bet anything on that statement of yours?

for real i will take that bet too Orcasystems
Quoting Orcasystems:


Quoting 7544:
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Wanna bet anything on that statement of yours?

for real i will take that bet too Orcasystems

You agree with him or me?
Look at this run
week coming up :)
312. 7544
Quoting Orcasystems:

You agree with him or me?


you ! :)
We may have a few more phantom names over the next 6 weeks, but nothing that will threaten the U.S. We are in an early winter pattern across the CONUS. Truthfully, I believe they didn't name the nor'easter because it costs a lot of dough to issue watches and warnings for the east coast of the U.S. while Laura was all "fish" so why not name it and cross off the L storm.

Quoting Orcasystems:


What is this American trait that all Gov agency's have some kind of ulterior motive?

Quoting 7544:
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Wanna bet anything on that statement of yours?

for real i will take that bet too Orcasystems

You agree with him or me?


sounds political! lol
Quoting Chucktown:
We may have a few more phantom names over the next 6 weeks, but nothing that will threaten the U.S. We are in an early winter pattern across the CONUS. Truthfully, I believe they didn't name the nor'easter because it costs a lot of dough to issue watches and warnings for the east coast of the U.S. while Laura was all "fish" so why not name it and cross off the L storm.


Controversial - deleted
316. 7544
Quoting voortex:

Quoting Orcasystems:


What is this American trait that all Gov agency's have some kind of ulterior motive?

Quoting 7544:
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Wanna bet anything on that statement of yours?

for real i will take that bet too Orcasystems

You agree with him or me?


sounds political! lol


are u in vortex ?
Quoting voortex:

Quoting Orcasystems:


What is this American trait that all Gov agency's have some kind of ulterior motive?

Quoting 7544:
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Wanna bet anything on that statement of yours?

for real i will take that bet too Orcasystems

You agree with him or me?


sounds political! lol


ummm not sure.. its on the line I think
Quoting Chucktown:
We are in an early winter pattern across the CONUS.


Doesn't look like an "early winter pattern" here (average high/low ~70/50):


Overnight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 65. East wind around 7 mph.
Tuesday: Occasional showers and thunderstorms. High near 70. Southeast wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Tuesday Night: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 58. South wind around 8 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday: Cloudy, with a high near 68. Northwest wind between 7 and 13 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. North wind between 3 and 7 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 77.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 79.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Columbus Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Quoting Orcasystems:


What is this American trait that all Gov agency's have some kind of ulterior motive?
or Hidden agenda
We learned it from George Orwell, who was born in India. It may be hard for someone living in a British Commonwealth to to understand....lol
Quoting 4rtMyersGuy:
We learned it from George Orwell, who was born in India. It may be hard for someone living in a British Commonwealth to to understand....lol

Smart*ss

dr. jeff needs to email WU voter registration to all the bloggers. for whatever reason we are asked to vote on something....the vote costs a $ and goes into a relief fund that yes....we vote on for dispersion. how fair would that be? ask paypal. and ask'em to do it for free
315. Orcasystems 4:31 AM GMT on October 07, 2008
Quoting Chucktown:
We may have a few more phantom names over the next 6 weeks, but nothing that will threaten the U.S. We are in an early winter pattern across the CONUS. Truthfully, I believe they didn't name the nor'easter because it costs a lot of dough to issue watches and warnings for the east coast of the U.S. while Laura was all "fish" so why not name it and cross off the L storm.


Ahhh ok, my apologies my fault.. I keep forgetting that unless its killing Americans it doesn't count..


The (Winter) Superstorm of 1993 killed more people than all the named storms put together that hit the U.S. this year (not counting Ike, only because the final toll may take years to fugure) and the blizzard never had a name. Why?

Quoting voortex:

dr. jeff needs to email WU voter registration to all the bloggers. for whatever reason we are asked to vote on something....the vote costs a $ and goes into a relief fund that yes....we vote on for dispersion. how fair would that be? ask paypal. and ask'em to do it for free

Ahhh relief taxation?
Quoting 7544:


are u in vortex ?


no - you leftout one of my "o"'s
Quoting Chucktown:
The (Winter) Superstorm of 1993 killed more people than all the named storms put together that hit the U.S. this year (not counting Ike, only because the final toll may take years to fugure) and the blizzard never had a name. Why?



Amazing... actually thinks that the NHC should name winter storms and include as part of the hurricane season (a nor'easter is of course not tropical, thus why they are not named)... LOL...
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Amazing... actually thinks that the NHC should name winter storms and include as part of the hurricane season (a nor'easter is of course not tropical, thus why they are not named)... LOL...


I tried to understand his logic.. then decided not to feed it and just pushed the button
Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Subtropical Cyclone:

A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.

The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 100 miles. These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core.



Nor'easter

Difference from tropical cyclones

Often, people mistake nor'easters for tropical cyclones and do not differentiate between the two weather systems. Nor'easters differ from tropical cyclones in that nor'easters are cold-core low-pressure systems, meaning that they thrive on cold air. Tropical cyclones are warm-core low-pressure systems, which means they thrive on warm temperatures.
325. MichaelSTL 4:41 AM GMT on October 07, 2008
Quoting Chucktown:
The (Winter) Superstorm of 1993 killed more people than all the named storms put together that hit the U.S. this year (not counting Ike, only because the final toll may take years to fugure) and the blizzard never had a name. Why?




Amazing... actually thinks that the NHC should name winter storms and include as part of the hurricane season (a nor'easter is of course not tropical, thus why they are not named)... LOL...


I know the difference between cold core and warm core, but earlier comments suggested that if a storm isn't killing Americans then why not name it, especially when the seasonal forecast from NHC called for 14-18 named storms. They are comfortable right now, only needing 1 more to meet their criteria. This will continue their funding for the 2009 season as is.
Marco is running out of ocean



Click to enlarge
Quoting Orcasystems:

Ahhh relief taxation?


no orca - i only meant to even vote would mean the blogger donates a dollar. but for another dollar the blogger votes on where it goes to, ie red cross - portlight - wu - whatever jeff comes up with...
Well thats enough for me for the night.. see you all in the morning
Quoting voortex:


no orca - i only meant to even vote would mean the blogger donates a dollar. but for another dollar the blogger votes on where it goes to, ie red cross - portlight - wu - whatever jeff comes up with...


The only hole in your argument is he who can afford it, controls the vote. I know.. you say a dollar, but its the thought that counts
Who can comment on insurance and the NHC's classification of a weather system? If I'm not mistaken, in Florida you will be expected to pay alot more out of pocket for damage caused by a tropical storm rather than a sub or extratropical storm.....TIA
334. JRRP
good night
Quoting Orcasystems:


The only hole in your argument is he who can afford it, controls the vote. I know.. you say a dollar, but its the thought that counts


true - but if warren buffet want's the say...i aint gonna argue
good evening everyone...


hey spin....
337. voortex 1:28 AM EDT on October 07, 2008


hey spin....


Hey how about those RAYS........lol
BT weather tho.....this has to be the smallest tropical storm i have ever seen.....
Quoting Chucktown:
We may have a few more phantom names over the next 6 weeks, but nothing that will threaten the U.S. We are in an early winter pattern across the CONUS. Truthfully, I believe they didn't name the nor'easter because it costs a lot of dough to issue watches and warnings for the east coast of the U.S. while Laura was all "fish" so why not name it and cross off the L storm.



You make me laugh chucktown, thats all I can say to your last two posts. Winter Pattern maybe up North not in FL we are going to be near 90 by this weekend, early Winter?? More like mid-Summer.
Quoting sporteguy03:



You make me laugh chucktown, thats all I can say to your last two posts. Winter Pattern maybe up North not in FL we are going to be near 90 by this weekend, early Winter?? More like mid-Summer.


wow isn't that the truth.......almost like a summer pattern setting up also.....
sorry tampaspin, I am off to bed,I won't even go further with that blogger's post, he is entitled to his opinion and I'll leave it that night!
342. sporteguy03 1:46 AM EDT on October 07, 2008
sorry tampaspin, I am off to bed,I won't even go further with that blogger's post, he is entitled to his opinion and I'll leave it that night!


Yep i agree! Good nite........
what is a CONus
Looks like everyone has feel asleep also so im also out! Good nite if anyone is still on!
344. Dar9598 1:48 AM EDT on October 07, 2008
what is a CONus


Contenninal United States
...MARCO IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...

Marco is the smallest tropical cyclone on record! (TS winds only extend out to 15 miles.
Bobby, is that for certain?
According to the information I have Marco breaks or meets the record for smallest tropical cyclone. Previous record holder Tropical Cyclone Tracy spread winds approximately 30 miles from it's center.

"After forming over the Arafura Sea, the storm moved upward and affected the city with Category 4 winds on the Australian cyclone intensity scale and the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, although there is evidence to suggest that it had reached Category 5 when it made landfall.

Tracy killed 71 people, caused $837 million in damage (1974 AUD) and destroyed more than 70 percent of Darwin's buildings. Tracy left homeless more than 20,000 out of the 49,000 inhabitants of the city prior to landfall and required the evacuation of over 30,000 people.[4] Most of Darwin's population was evacuated to Adelaide, Whyalla, Alice Springs and Sydney, and many never returned to the city. After the storm passed, the city was rebuilt using more modern materials and updated building techniques. Bruce Stannard of The Age stated that Cyclone Tracy was a "disaster of the first magnitude ... without parallel in Australia's history."

This storm although weaker than Tracy is a sign of the active period we are in, showing us interesting anomalies in individual storms that defy expectations.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Tracy
According to the information I have Marco breaks or meets the record for smallest tropical cyclone. Previous record holder Tropical Cyclone Tracy spread winds approximately 30 miles from it's center.

"After forming over the Arafura Sea, the storm moved upward and affected the city with Category 4 winds on the Australian cyclone intensity scale and the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, although there is evidence to suggest that it had reached Category 5 when it made landfall.

Tracy killed 71 people, caused $837 million in damage (1974 AUD) and destroyed more than 70 percent of Darwin's buildings. Tracy left homeless more than 20,000 out of the 49,000 inhabitants of the city prior to landfall and required the evacuation of over 30,000 people.[4] Most of Darwin's population was evacuated to Adelaide, Whyalla, Alice Springs and Sydney, and many never returned to the city. After the storm passed, the city was rebuilt using more modern materials and updated building techniques. Bruce Stannard of The Age stated that Cyclone Tracy was a "disaster of the first magnitude ... without parallel in Australia's history."

This storm although weaker than Tracy is a sign of the active period we are in, showing us interesting anomalies in individual storms that defy expectations.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Tracy
Quoting Chucktown:
301. 7544 4:09 AM GMT on October 07, 2008
hmm is our ull at around 20n and 60 west trying to become tropical at this hour nice convection forming


Stop with the wishcasting. The tropics are done. NHC will name 1 or 2 more "ship" storms deep in the Atlantic to meet quota for the year.


POOF!
wow 15 NM storm force winds.. darn usually its hurricane force winds that is that small in radius.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995marilyn.html Good morning Remember marilyn it was a very small storm too while in the eastern carib cat 4 hit st thomas
Good morning. Just looking in long enough to see what's going on with the area in the CAtl.

As for Marco, it seems we are going to have one of everything in the ATL basin this year. . . this is going to be a "model" textbook year. . .
It looks like there is another Marco right behind Marko lol.
Good Morning Everyone !
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Ummm... 2007 was pretty bad in the Caribbean... if a Cat 5 hit the U.S., damages would be like a trillion dollars (all relative; Cat 1-2s in the U.S. cause far more monetary damage than Cat 5s in Central America due to wealth and people in the U.S. not knowing how stupid it is to live right on the coasts or in cheaply constructed houses)...

yeah 2007 was horrible in the Caribbean but I said not bad for us
MARCO IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
MARCO IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER.


I think it could fit in the palm of my hand at this rate.

This season has had it all... Ike and Marco, what a pairing.
What's holding Marco back from becoming a hurricane?
Two interesting-looking areas in the CAtl: first this one at approx. 50W, running from about 10N - 19N:



This just looks like a Twave right now, and I didn't notice any "spin" to it.


Second, this one at 21N 61W or so:



This one is obviously non-tropical at this time, IMO.
Norbert is a hurricane

I don't think Marco will become a hurricane it's size makes it too easy to knock around
10nm Marco. Does this storm make the record books?

Heck I now cyclones with eyes wider then this storms windfield.

Tracy was 30nm this is only ten. In my book it ranks as the smallest LOL
The NHC isn't seeing anything new out there this a.m.



...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
19W/20W S OF 11N MOVING W BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS BUT DOES NOT
PRESENT THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V CURVATURE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 17W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A
SMALL MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 35W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. WAVE IS
MOVING BENEATH STRONG NW WINDS ALOFT...AND THEREFORE NO SHOWERS
OR DEEP CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOVING BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITH HIGH CLOUDS
OBSCURING ANY SIGNATURE AT LOWER LEVELS THEREFORE POSITION IS
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. ANY ACTIVITY NEAR THIS WAVE IS DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.


They also had this about the ATL:

A LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC CENTERED NEAR 23N62W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
27N59W TO 21N62W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 56W-59W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
Quoting Bonedog:
10nm Marco. Does this storm make the record books?

Heck I now cyclones with eyes wider then this storms windfield.

Tracy was 30nm this is only ten. In my book it ranks as the smallest LOL


I believe so. Smallest I've ever heard of anyway.
Also morning all.

to the folks that like to follow space news...

At 0246 UT asteroid 2008TC3 exploded in the atmosphere over northern Sudan like a kiloton of TNT and creating a fireball as bright as a full Moon. Most of the 3-meter-wide asteroid would have vaporized in the atmosphere with only small pieces possibly reaching the ground as meteorites.
Link
That was the 2:05a, BTW.
Quoting Bonedog:
Also morning all.

to the folks that like to follow space news...

At 0246 UT asteroid 2008TC3 exploded in the atmosphere over northern Sudan like a kiloton of TNT and creating a fireball as bright as a full Moon. Most of the 3-meter-wide asteroid would have vaporized in the atmosphere with only small pieces possibly reaching the ground as meteorites.
Link
Iran didnt shoot a nuke in retliation did they bonedog?...lol
checking the archive NHC mentioned Marco may be the smallest on record

MINIATURE MARCO HAS MAINTAINED ONE SMALL COLD-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER...ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE STATE OF DELAWARE...I HAVE WORKED SOME TINY TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
BEFORE...BUT HORIZONTALLY-CHALLENGED MARCO COULD BE THE SMALLEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.
Link

amazing that we have the largest and smallest in the same season. This little sucker is amazing, reminds me of that NatGeo special on hypercanes. Yes I know we are only at 55knts but the special talked about super small storms of 10 to 20nmi but super high winds.
368.. LOL tkeith No reports thus far but a KLM flight did witness it.
I was hoping they got the memo...lol, rainin buckets in Kenner this morning.
cold here in NJ frost and freeze advisories posted.

My weather station recorded 29.9 this morning and tonight the area is forecasted to drop into the 20s so feel I should record my lowest temps thus far. I love the changing of the seasons :)
just read about 2008 TC3 it was discovered yesterday!! and impacted the atmosphere this morning. Perfect example of why we need the NEO Project. Imagine if this was a larger asteriod!
Good morning all.


The UKMET is insisting on two new cyclones forming within the next 36 hours.
One in the EPAC and one in the East Atlantic:

11.1N 88.5W
7.0N 27.7W



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.1N 88.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 07.10.2008 11.1N 88.5W WEAK

00UTC 08.10.2008 10.5N 88.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.10.2008 11.3N 88.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.10.2008 12.1N 91.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.10.2008 12.8N 92.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.10.2008 12.9N 92.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.10.2008 13.6N 93.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.10.2008 14.0N 93.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.10.2008 13.6N 92.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.10.2008 13.0N 92.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.10.2008 13.1N 92.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.10.2008 13.1N 93.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 7.0N 27.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 08.10.2008 7.0N 27.7W WEAK

00UTC 09.10.2008 8.9N 29.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.10.2008 9.8N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.10.2008 10.0N 35.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.10.2008 10.6N 38.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.10.2008 11.3N 40.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.10.2008 12.7N 43.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 12.10.2008 13.6N 44.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.10.2008 14.1N 46.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 13.10.2008 14.8N 48.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

Photobucket
we just had a 5.8 earthquake at near the north pole!

Link
heres a bone what do you think of that area sw of jamaica? need to see the visiable.
appears to be shower activity. nothing on QS to suggest rotation.

Will keep an eye on it though. Low shear, convergence and divergence in the area.
I think Marco would have fit inside Wilma's eye (the large one, not the pinhole.)
Quoting Bonedog:
Also morning all.

to the folks that like to follow space news...

At 0246 UT asteroid 2008TC3 exploded in the atmosphere over northern Sudan like a kiloton of TNT and creating a fireball as bright as a full Moon.
Link
I sure hope someone got some pictures/movies. I want to see it!
agree dog edge of a dieing ull could pop
Im looking up sat images of the area. maybe in a loop or something there will be pics. nothing on the net yet.
225 - MichaelSTL
292 - Yamil20
366 - Bonedog - Asteroid

That puppy was moving at approx 7.5 miles per second, or 450 miles per min, or 27,000 miles per hour. The speed of sound is approx 767 MPH based on air temp and altitude, so the asteriod was moving at 35.2 times the speed of sound!! I hope it all burned up, if the small pieces were slowed down coming in they would still be moving really fast!!
Looking at meteostat7 links there appears (at least to me) sat images of the fireball and trail. Check the near infared chaneels and you see a line from the NE to the SW with a round ball at the end roughly where Sudan is. Might be it, might not.


Link
pieces of rock moving so fast you can not see them fall?
Good morning everyone...

Who brought the doughnuts?
Morning Bean -

I brought Margaritas...figured might as well get it all in before the end of the season and we go to the Ford together.

first images of 2008 TC3 while still in space

Quoting melwerle:
Morning Bean -

I brought Margaritas...figured might as well get it all in before the end of the season and we go to the Ford together.



hehe

I like the way you think...season isn't over YET...so Cheers!
morning StormW
Morning Storm
Quoting Greyelf:
I sure hope someone got some pictures/movies. I want to see it!


Check out this page. Here is confirmation it was spotted in the potentially affected impact zone by Amsterdam airline pilots. Also, see the link the the Meteosat-7 0300 UTC is you are trying to see it via satellite. If you have access to higher definition/resolution images please share.Link
Good Morning...

Thanks.

Hoping to get an impactor image or a sat loop of it coming in.

nothing yet
morning Wx
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
MARCO IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER.


Why not just call it Waterspout Marco?
Ok Storm thanks for the heads up
LOL TCW .

yea its a very small system indeed. I know towns bigger then this system
I'm working on my Web Server so I can present the UTC desktop clock I made for you guys... don't worry I'm not evil, so it won't have any viruses. :)

I will be evolving this clock to actually have Weather related options... more to do with Forecast models inializations and such on its next version.

In regards the tropic:

Marco... will have a lot of potential if it stays over water. Fortunately it won't so our Mexicans friends won't have to deal with it for too long. Interesting to note... its wind field is rather small, which in my opinion makes it the smallest storm I've ever seen.

W and NW Carib... should be watch closely towards next week as GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and NOGAPS are showing a rather strong T.S developing and moving N from the Carib. Models have varying degrees of strenght and path for this possible system. This the the second round ECMWF has shown a T.S. development in the area and if it keeps up for the next run then it could start validating what GFS has been trying to spin up.

Due to this time of the year... if this system is to develop, then the E GOM States should keep a close eye on it.
Quoting Bonedog:
morning Wx


Morning, Bone...
morning
interesting flare up of convection 700miles east of barbados. a little rotation noted near 12.5 n. no upperlevel wind data at the moment and QS missed the area this morning
Morning all - Looks like Baja may be impacted by Hurricane Norbert. Other than that and Marco (not affecting US) pretty quiet.
morning conchy
Quoting Bonedog:
morning conchy
morning bone.
I know we're still talking about Marco, but have you seen the 00z ECMWF?

Link
Quoting stoormfury:
morning
interesting flare up of convection 700miles east of barbados. a little rotation noted near 12.5 n. no upperlevel wind data at the moment and QS missed the area this morning


Current SFC/Ship reports don't show a close low associated with this convection as it is showing it as an open wave, but it seems to be amplying a bit and it could become a close low if conditions permit.
Quoting Bonedog:
Also morning all.

to the folks that like to follow space news...

At 0246 UT asteroid 2008TC3 exploded in the atmosphere over northern Sudan like a kiloton of TNT and creating a fireball as bright as a full Moon. Most of the 3-meter-wide asteroid would have vaporized in the atmosphere with only small pieces possibly reaching the ground as meteorites.
Link
This is a really cool link. Thanks.
The 06z GFS also shows a low developing in the carribean, crossing Cuba, and coming up the east coast of Florida.

Link
Quoting stoormfury:
morning
interesting flare up of convection 700miles east of barbados. a little rotation noted near 12.5 n. no upperlevel wind data at the moment and QS missed the area this morning


Is that the area the UKMET wants to spin something up?

Link
Good morning all!!

Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
Good morning all!!



Good morning.

BTW...I love the Steelers logo. True to form, it was another nail-biter Sunday night, but they pulled it off.
morning spicy
Hmmm Twins?


Click to enlarge
Morning all
mornin dart
Morning FL..., Spicy...
"Hurricane Ike's winds and massive waves destroyed oil platforms, tossed storage tanks and punctured pipelines. The environmental damage only now is becoming apparent: At least a half million gallons of crude oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico and the marshes, bayous and bays of Louisiana and Texas, according to an analysis of federal data by The Associated Press. ... In the days before and after the deadly storm, companies and residents reported at least 448 releases of oil, gasoline and dozens of other substances into the air and water and onto the ground in Louisiana and Texas. "

Link
Hmmmmm
amazingly there are no images on the net yet of the fireball. Must have been a busy night for the viralnetters
Quoting leftovers:
heres a bone what do you think of that area sw of jamaica? need to see the visiable.
that's not a bone...that's a cookie
Quoting Orcasystems:
Hmmmmm


Indeed... CMC did a great job with Marco, unlike other Global models that completely failed to pick it up. So I'm not discounting that possibility at all.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Hmmm Twins?


Click to enlarge

I shall call him "mini-me"
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Tropical Storm ... MARCO
Present Satellite picture ... MARCO
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 96)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 180)
CMC ... Florida (Hour 216)
CMC ... Very Busy(Hour 240)
CMC 00Z..
388 Bonedog -- whoaaaa - amazing
Quoting Orcasystems:
Hmmmmm


"Look at them! Little ducks... *All* in a row..."
Thanks surfmom.

Hows things down your way?
420lickitysplit -- I read that piece -- makes me sick....wondering if that pollution shows up in any Satellite Pictures....Going to use that information to write an editiorial to the Paper against more rigs in the Gulf.
Quoting Bonedog:
Thanks surfmom.

Hows things down your way?
East Wind at 5;10 No swell, Flat - Gulf temp 78 degree's (brrr) Now a thicker long sleeve rash guard. MiniMarcos is not going to send any wave action my way.

Time to diversify - pull out the kayaks, work harder on the running, paddle the buoys, and wait patiently for cold fronts.....

Beautiful Sunrise this morning --hmmmm lots of pink in the sky -- and I've got a 60percent chance of rain --which today I kinda don't want -- Got to work horses this afternoon, and if the grass is wet -- it's not good too slippery
Good morning everyone.

Marco sure is a small TS in size, but the winds are probably concentrated and heading straight for Tecolutla, MX. I am sure those living there will not think it was small.
Quoting surfmom:
East Wind at 5;10 No swell, Flat - Gulf temp 78 degree's (brrr) Now a thicker long sleeve rash guard. MiniMarcos is not going to send any wave action my way.

Time to diversify - pull out the kayaks, work harder on the running, paddle the buoys, and wait patiently for cold fronts.....

Beautiful Sunrise this morning --hmmmm lots of pink in the sky -- and I've got a 60percent chance of rain --which today I kinda don't want -- Got to work horses this afternoon, and if the grass is wet -- it's not good too slippery


I don't think I would be taking down any shutters are putting away the boards just yet....
433 -- the surfboard NEVER gets really put away. Took it out of my car to bait the fates.....
I think there's one more out there this year.... just a feeling......
Quoting surfmom:
433 -- the surfboard NEVER gets really put away. Took it out of my car to bait the fates.....


I would not be surprised if you have lots of waves in the next 6-10 days.. and rain
Quoting surfmom:
I think there's one more out there this year.... just a feeling......

Look at #421
LOL surfmom.

Time for the cross training LOL

well your weather and temps sound better then mine. woke up to clear skys and 29.9 degrees with frost on the grass. Tonight forcasted to be a hard freeze with temps in the mid 20s.

Cant wait for florida now :) 11 days and counting.

Still searching the net for fireball pics but no luck.

I will check the sat pics for the Gulf to see if the spills are evident.
This is the one that tracks up and goes to the east coast of Florida

Orca Ya think???? I looked..... just don't want to get skunked...again. And in respect to recipients of 'canes I repress any glee (at least I try)
High Island Texas after IKE

442. KBH
Quoting stoormfury:
morning
interesting flare up of convection 700miles east of barbados. a little rotation noted near 12.5 n. no upperlevel wind data at the moment and QS missed the area this morning

Storm, do you have a link, for some strange reason all my noaa links to that area are gone!..hmm..
Quoting surfmom:
Orca Ya think???? I looked..... just don't want to get skunked...again. And in respect to recipients of 'canes I repress any glee (at least I try)


Go and watch this
CMC 00Z..
For those who think the CMC is garbage..its the only model that picked up Marco
Kinda down the road a bit....hope it doesn't screw up my road trip to secret spot on the the East coast.......
Good morning - today's chuckle - the front that moved south, rained, moved north, rained, it suppose to move south, and yep - rain!

Good thing that nothing developed off the tails of this, or we would have baby storms all over the place.
441 - Bonedog OMG OMG..........I get so ashamed of being human when I see stuff like that. can I take that picture and attached to the e-mail when I write the editorial??
sure thing both came off the net. credit the real source not I

right click the images to view source.


I know what you mean about being ashamed. Being part of the Surfrider foundation and doing the monthly beach cleanups and can't believe how wasteful and disrespectful folks are of our world and environment.
Surf report for Upham says flat and poor conditions for the next 3 days. Needs a good NW swell to really pick up there. When can W Central FL expect the next swell? Been flat for a while...
Ohhh Wow - I am a surfrider member too! It's my birthday present to me and to give thanks to the ocean every year ...of courses now I have to add Portlight to the equation -- helps keep me guilt free
Quoting fmbill:


Good morning.

BTW...I love the Steelers logo. True to form, it was another nail-biter Sunday night, but they pulled it off.


grrrr - steelers - we let them steal it from us
great orgs both of them :)
aweatherlover ...goodness, I don't know -- I think other then some TS out there we are waiting on the cold fronts. but... you can always go out and paddle, then you are good and ready for when the waves come. I found the discipline has really helped ie IKE. I am going to try and keep the routine even when it gets cold and i have to wear a wetsuit.

cool thing was the other day I was out and two amorous manatee's were courting. They were so occupied they really didn't concern themselves w/me. getting out there you get to experience neat stuff too.
Quoting Bonedog:
great orgs both of them :)
..I've been trying to think of a way to approach Surfrider in regards to Portlight.
New blog
Quoting fmbill:


Good morning.

BTW...I love the Steelers logo. True to form, it was another nail-biter Sunday night, but they pulled it off.


thank you! sorry it took me so long to reply. at work and have to flip back and forth...sometimes I can't get back for awhile..
Quoting Bonedog:
morning spicy


good morning Bone!
Quoting WxLogic:
Morning FL..., Spicy...


morning :)