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March is the 13th warmest on record; major tornado outbreak expected

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:30 PM GMT on April 25, 2011

March 2011 was the globe's 13th warmest March on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated March the 9th warmest on record. March 2011 global ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were below average, the 12th or 15th coolest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The global cool-down from November, which was the warmest November on record for the globe, was due in large part to a La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific. The large amount of cold water that upwells to the surface during a La Niña typically causes a substantial cool-down in global temperatures. The coldest place on the globe in March, relative to average, was Central and Western Canada. The Asian portion of Russia was exceptionally warm, relative to average.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a nice summary of some of the remarkable weather extremes of March 2011.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Congo sets its all-time heat record
The Democratic Republic of the Congo, the world's 12th largest country, set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005. Congo is the first nation to set an all-time extreme heat or cold record in 2011. Last year, a record 19 nations, plus the UK's Ascension Island territory, set all-time extreme heat records. I thank weather records researchers Maximiliano Herrera, Christoper C. Burt, and Howard Rainford for their assistance researching these records.

A moderately warm and wet March for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., March temperatures were warmer than average, ranking the 39th warmest in the 117-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Only New Mexico had a top ten warmest March; no states had a top ten coldest March. Precipitation was above average, with the month ranking as the 34th wettest March since 1895. Texas had its driest March on record, and top ten driest Marches were experienced in New Mexico and Oklahoma. Washington, Oregon, California, and Pennsylvania had top ten wettest Marches.

La Niña remains weak
La Niña conditions remain weak over the Eastern Pacific, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Eastern Pacific about 0.6°C below average. An animation of SSTs since late December shows the weakening La Niña nicely. Springtime is the most common time for a La Niña event to end; since 1950, half of all La Niñas ended in March, April, or May. The weakness displayed by the current La Niña event has prompted NOAA's Climate Prediction Center to predict that La Niña will be gone by June.

Sea ice extent in the Arctic 2nd lowest on record during March
March 2011 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was second lowest on record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Satellite records extend back to 1979. This breaks a string of three consecutive months of record low Arctic sea ice cover.

Major tornado outbreak expected today through Wednesday
Another huge tornado outbreak is likely this week over the U.S., as a strong storm system that is developing over the Mississippi Valley today moves slowly eastwards during the week. A 3-day tornado total of over 100 twisters is quite possible today through Wednesday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued its "moderate risk" forecast for severe weather today, centered over Arkansas. This region has a significant risk of tornadoes, some of them strong EF-2 and EF-3 strength. A more serious threat of severe weather exists for Tuesday over Arkansas and surrounding states, with the Storm Prediction Center calling the situation "potentially significant/dangerous." The heightened severe weather risk extends through Wednesday, with a moderate risk of tornadoes and severe weather in Tennessee and surrounding states. Preliminary tornado reports for the year 2011 show that this year is probably already the busiest tornado season on record for this point in the season. This week's action will substantially pad the record.


Figure 2. Severe weather threat for Monday, April 25, 2011.

St. Louis tornado rated an EF-4
A violent EF-4 tornado ripped through St. Louis near 8pm local time Friday night, carving a 22-mile path of destruction up to 0.4 miles wide, and severely damaging Lambert International Airport. The airport, the world's 30th busiest, was closed much of the weekend, but has now re-opened. The tornado, rated an EF-2 when it hit the airport, ripped off the roof from Concourse C, blew out more than half of the windows in the main terminal, and moved an aircraft that was parked at a gate twenty feet. The tornado also passed over a residential area just west of the airport in the community of Bridgton, causing severe EF-4 damage, according to the National Weather Service office in St. Louis. This was the first violent EF-4 tornado of the year.


Figure 3.
Remarkable video from a security camera at the St. Louis airport showing the roof being torn off Concourse C.


Figure 4.Before and after damage photo of Beaverton Drive in Bridgeton, Missouri, after the April 22, 2011 tornado. This damage was rated EF3. Image credit: National Weather Service office in St. Louis and Google.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting RandomText:
OMG...

Vilonia tornado was even worse than I thought.

They said town is gone and scoured pavement.

That may be EF5.


EF5's are Horrible forces of nature...
Last time scoured pavement was reported:1999 Moore, Ok F5.
With the reports I am hearing from the scene it is a min EF4. No walls standing in MANY structures including commercial buildings. All gone.
Quoting RastaSteve:
Town of Vilona,ARK is gone as an apparent EF-4 or EF-5 tore thru the town according to the NWS in Little Rock. OH MY GOD! I hope those people survived. Dr. Greg Forbs said reports of all the pavement in the town stripped off the roads.


This is not good....
Catastrophic...
I mean this is really sad, I typed Vilonia into Google News and there are articles about it from before the tornado, with kids having toad races at the local schools or people enjoying Easter and now all of that could very well be wiped off the face of the Earth. Too sad.
What gets me, that was not a slow moving tornado at all. It wasn't like one of the slow moving grinders that is typical to scour pavement.

This thing hit and was gone past the area within a few frames on the radar.

I wonder how fast the winds have to be to do that kind of damage within a few seconds to a few minutes?
Lets just hope they listened to the warning and went to a safe area like those folks in St. Louis. This is much much worst I believe than that storm. Whats scary, tomorrow is expected to be just as bad and Wed. expected to be worst in more highly populated areas.
Quoting RandomText:
What gets me, that was not a slow moving tornado at all. It wasn't like one of the slow moving grinders that is typical to scour pavement.

This thing hit and was gone past the area within a few frames on the radar.

I wonder how fast the winds have to be to do that kind of damage within a few seconds to a few minutes?
260 to 300 miles per hour everythings gone incluling most of or all of the living that once were there

000
NWUS54 KLZK 260213
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
913 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0617 PM TORNADO HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE 34.67N 92.93W
04/25/2011 SALINE AR TRAINED SPOTTER

MANY HOMES WERE DAMAGED. TIME IS APPROXIMATED FROM RADAR.



&&

also you have to remember Randomtext. This thing was reported to be 1/2 to 1 mile wide. That may have something to do with it also, not to mention EF4 - EF5 winds.
I have now alerted my friends in Marvell - West Helena, AR area...this is sickening...
I wasn't here when the Vilonia tornado occurred, what part of the derecho did it form along? I would guess the cyclonic head, but I don't know. Can anyone fill me in?
Cantore tweet
edit: he just tweeted this is NOT Vilonia, AR
@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
RT @coreycoff http://a3.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/226 907_625142822342_73100684_33600443_1870261_n.jpg - Large Tornado from LR AR

man the live audio feed was either cutoff or lost. Hope it comes back on soon
link to Arkansas warnings:

Watches, Warnings or Advisories for
Arkansas


Bad. Looks like Memphis is in the crosshairs.
Quoting MrstormX:
I wasn't here when the Vilonia tornado occurred, what part of the derecho did it form along? I would guess the cyclonic head, but I don't know. Can anyone fill me in?



it was from a strong supercell ahead of the line.

Quoting MrstormX:
I wasn't here when the Vilonia tornado occurred, what part of the derecho did it form along? I would guess the cyclonic head, but I don't know. Can anyone fill me in?


It was several miles behind the supercell that was producing the tornado. Traveling 20 to 30 mph faster than the tornado. It finally overtook the storm which is now heading into Memphis
geez...I used to work at a casino up that way and still have lots of friends that live there...praying hard..
and of course I have family in Nashville area too..bummer
522. flsky
has this been verified? Unbelievable.

Quoting RastaSteve:
Towns north of Little Rock wiped off the map by what could be our first EF-5 tornado since Greensburg.
523. beell
No words.
Quoting RandomText:
OMG...

Vilonia tornado was even worse than I thought.

They said town is gone and scoured pavement.

That may be EF5.
That's terrible. Nightfall has arrived over the storm zone so hopefully tornado activity will drop because tornadoes are so much more dangerous at night.

This tornado season has been especially rough the last month or so of activity. Stay safe people.
New image of tornado just outside of Ranger Texas.

(By: sylviekate)
That radar image is absolutely horrifying. God help those people. How much warning did they have?
Quoting flsky:
has this been verified? Unbelievable.



Yes this for on was live audio from Fire Rescue and Law Enforcement on scene. Now media is reporting it.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



it was from a strong supercell ahead of the line.



Oh my god, that is really bad looking.
NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TN20110426015700FloodWarning2011042 7015600TN.MEGFLSMEG.4fe99c16efe99348a4c93841db5014 da from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 21:26 CDT on 04-25-2011
Effective: 20:57 CDT on 04-25-2011
Expires: 20:56 CDT on 04-26-2011
Event: Flood Warning

Alert: THE FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE FOR MOST ALL THE RIVERS AND STREAMS...HATCHIE RIVER...LOOSAHATCHIE
RIVER...NORTH FORK FORKED DEER RIVER...NORTH FORK OBION RIVER... OBION RIVER...S.F. FORK FORKED DEER RIVER...WOLF RIVER.
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE OBION RIVER NEAR OBION

* FROM TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

* AT 8 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.2 FEET AND RISING.

* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* MAXIMUM FORECAST STAGE OF 37.0 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.

* FLOOD STAGE IS 34.0 FEET.

* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 37.0 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.

* AT 37.0 FEET...FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN OBION. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN RIVERS. NUMEROUS SECONDARY ROADS NEAR THE RIVER ARE FLOODED

Instructions: THESE WARNINGS ARE A HEADS UP FOR EVERYONE...DUE TO HEAVY RAINS MOVING IN TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR STORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT RIVER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR GRAPHICAL RIVER AND FLOOD INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK NEAR MEMPHIS ON THE MAP. THEN SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST RIVER INFORMATION.

Quoting MrstormX:
I wasn't here when the Vilonia tornado occurred, what part of the derecho did it form along? I would guess the cyclonic head, but I don't know. Can anyone fill me in?


Actually, I'm positive the tornado hit Vilonia about 20 minutes ahead of the bow echo.

The bow echo later caught up to the tornado and merged with it.

Now it has a mesoscale vortex with multiple tornadic cells imbedded.

The straight line winds are a few dozen miles south of the tornado boxes. I think this is also around 60mph to 70mph straight line winds.
"There is an unconfirmed report that rescue personnel have called for the coronor to be sent to Vilonia.

Linda Hicks, the Log Cabin correspondent in Vilonia, reports that a church has been destroyed and that people are reported to be trapped in the church shelter.

The Vilonia Police dispatchers report receiving numerous calls of trees blocking roads and downed power lines, but there are still no calls on injuries.

Reports indicate storm damage in the Vilonia area.

Overturned vehicles, downed power lines and closed highways are among the reports in the aftermath of a reported strong tornado that ravaged the area about 7:30 p.m.

From Vilonia Correspondent Linda Hicks: 'We made it through. Heard it has hit and wiped
out about a mile stretch. Has wiped out some mobile homes, several
roofs. Quail Hollow was hit. Highway 64 closed and we are getting it
again right now.'"


The Central Arkansas Cabin
532. beell
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



it was from a strong supercell ahead of the line.



Thanks, T-cloud. I was out when this thing wrapped up.
Multiple confirmed tornadoes on ground, Saline County, Garland County, Pulaski County. 60-80 MPH winds, Little Rock and Maumelle, Conway areas, miltiple injuries!
watching the memphis live broadcast on the internet. www.wmctv.com
Thanks Mrs. StormX
536. flsky
Seems to me cash, in the form of gift cards or whatever would be most helpful. These folks are going to need everything ... including possible expenses that I don't even want to mention....

Quoting Portlight:
Please share your thoughgts, comments, input...
Link
Quoting mossyhead:
watching the memphis live broadcast on the internet. www.wmctv.com


Thanks, I will monitor that one. FOX 16 Little Rock has a live stream as well about damage in the area.
539. flsky
You need a sad face on your avatar tonight....

Quoting beell:
No words.
There is life in Vilonia

Twitter
toneelawrence Tonee Lawrence
We're okay! Please keep our small town and folks in thoughts ... hearing its bad out. #vilonia #arkansas #tornado
2 minutes ago
It is surreal, reading these comments and feeling the anguish and the pain. While sitting under clear starry skies.
Thoughts and Prayers from here....
Tornado Watch
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 205/206...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
453 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-MOC069 -155-MSC009-013-027-033-071-093-107-119-135-137-13 9-143-145-161-TNC017-023-033-045-047-053-069-075-0 77-079-095-097-109-113-131-157-167-183-260500-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.A.0206.000000T0000Z-110426T0500Z/

TORNADO WATCH 206 REMAINS VALID UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN EAST ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS GREENE LEE
MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT
ST. FRANCIS

IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES

BENTON CALHOUN COAHOMA
DESOTO LAFAYETTE MARSHALL
PANOLA QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE
TATE TIPPAH TUNICA
UNION YALOBUSHA

IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

DUNKLIN PEMISCOT

IN WEST TENNESSEE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 18 COUNTIES

CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DYER FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON MCNAIRY OBION
SHELBY TIPTON WEAKLEY

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BARTLETT...BATESVILLE...
BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDA LE...
COLLIERVILLE...COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG... FORREST CITY... GERMANTOWN... HARRISBURG... HELENA... HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...JACKSON...JONESBORO...KENN ETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...MEMPHIS...MILAN...MILLI NGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH... OXFORD... PARAGOULD... PARIS...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...TUNICA...UNION CITY...WEST MEMPHIS AND WYNNE.

$$
it's going to be a long night.
goodnight.
retweet from Cantore


Sean Breslin

Here you go, @JimCantore RT @chrisvenable: Surprisingly few injury reports from Vilonia tornado. Advance warning probably saved a lot of lives.
Quoting flsky:
Seems to me cash, in the form of gift cards or whatever would be most helpful. These folks are going to need everything ... including possible expenses that I don't even want to mention....

Link
thanks Geoffrey!
Bart Comstock twitter: Bad news: Vilonia is confirmed gone Good news: Few injuries reported due to ample warning. Things can be replaced, lives cant.
548. flsky
Just checked The Weather Channel and they're actually giving some serious coverage tonight.
549. flsky
Great site. thanks

Quoting IFuSAYso:
Link
550. flsky
I know what you mean. Me too.

Quoting pottery:
It is surreal, reading these comments and feeling the anguish and the pain. While sitting under clear starry skies.
Thoughts and Prayers from here....
Quoting Jedkins01:


This is not good....
i am watching the the weather channel tonight severe weather everywhere tonight.
Quoting flsky:
Just checked The Weather Channel and they're actually giving some serious coverage tonight.


People can say what they want about TWC. I agree to the most part but, when there is a severe weather event and Forbes is on, they have excellent coverage. Very informative. I want one of those 3D storm slicing programs.
Quoting emcf30:


People can say what they want about TWC. I agree to the most part but, when there is a severe weather event and Forbes is on, they have excellent coverage. Very informative. I want one of those 3D storm slicing programs.


Any1 have any further of the Lake Jericho, KY damn failure. I cant find any.
Quoting IFuSAYso:


Any1 have any further of the Lake Jericho, KY damn failure. I cant find any.


Reported by Jim Cantore on TWC 1-2 hours ago.
Quoting IFuSAYso:


Any1 have any further of the Lake Jericho, KY damn failure. I cant find any.

Dam*, lol
10 p.m. -Another severe weather system wreaked havoc across the state Monday, including deadly flash floods in northern Arkansas and multiple storms packing high winds and possible tornadoes. Power was knocked out to thousands.

Most of the state was under a flash food warning as the storm marched its way east toward Tennessee.

A West Fork woman died earlier Monday when she got out of her van, which was being swept away in Washington County floods. Her 11-year-old son survived.

Another fatality was seen in hard-hit Vilonia, where there are reports of a half-mile wide swath of damage.

Several injuries were reported, as several storm fronts sprang up from Hot Springs Village to Vilonia in the span of two hours. Damage reports were coming in from all over, including roofs torn off of housing at the Little Rock Air Force Base and trees and power lines knocked down in many areas.

Rescuers were out to help clear debris and checking on residents.

Gov. Mike Beebe issued a state of emergency retroactive to April 19 for the entire state.

Severe storms have been plaguing the state since April 15, when an overnight system left seven dead.

Link
Downtown Vilonia hit by severe storm
Posted: April 25, 2011 - 9:55pm
By Linda Hicks

Shortly after 7:30 p.m. Monday night, Vilonia residents began the cleanup of the downtown area that officials said was %u201Cwiped out%u201D just minutes prior.

%u201CIt%u2019s just a mess here,%u201D said Mayor James Firestone. %u201CThere are trees and power lines down everywhere. Highway 64 is closed. An 18-wheeler is turned over. Only emergency vehicles are being let in. And, we need them.%u201D.......
Problem with dam leads to precautionary evacuations in Henry Co.
Posted: Apr 25, 2011 7:18 PM EDT Updated: Apr 25, 2011 9:58 PM EDT



Posted by Charles Gazaway - email

SULPHER, KY (WAVE) – Slippage at the base of the dam at the Lake Jericho Recreational Area has led to a precautionary evacuation of residents in the area.

At 3:45 p.m. on April 25, the Henry County Emergency Operations Center was notified about the problem. Inspectors at the dam reported erosion and surface cracking. Based on that information, an evacuation order was issued for the Sulpher community and the surrounding homes along the Little Kentucky River.

According to Buddy Rogers with Kentucky Emergency Management in Frankfort, the people evacuated are being moved to the Henry County 4-H Fairgrounds outside of New Castle. Rogers did not know how many people are being affected.

WAVE 3 spoke with Larry Ramsey, property manager at Lake Jericho, who said a 75 foot long and 50 foot tall area has been compromised by the recent rainy weather. Ramsey said there had not been a breach of the dam and a tarp was being placed over the affected area.

An engineer will in inspect the dam at 137 acre lake, which opened in July 1969 and is operated by the Little Kentucky River Watershed Conservancy District, to determine the extent of the damage.
* AT 653 PM EDT...THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT
THE DAM AT LAKE JERICHO WAS IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF FAILURE.

SHOULD THIS DAM FAIL...FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LITTLE
KENTUCKY RIVER IN NORTHERN HENRY COUNTY. THIS WILL AFFECT THE TOWN
OF SULPHUR.
Texas taking a beating.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
925 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ANGELINA COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LUFKIN...
CENTRAL NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NACOGDOCHES...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 923 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FOREST...OR 22 MILES NORTHEAST OF CROCKETT...MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WELLS...POLLOK AND HUDSON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1003 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ANGELINA COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LUFKIN...DIBOLL...
SOUTHEASTERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 959 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES WEST OF
DIBOLL...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HUDSON...HUNTINGTON AND ETOILE...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1011 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL ANGELINA COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1008 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 20 MILES WEST OF
WODEN...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LUFKIN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MELROSE...




568. flsky
Is this going to hook up w/the texas disturbance?
Quoting RTLSNK:
Loop of Vilonia, Arkansas tornado, at least an EF3

Black dot marks Vilonia. Loop begins at 7:15 PM CST 4/25/11


Quoting emcf30:
* AT 653 PM EDT...THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT
THE DAM AT LAKE JERICHO WAS IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF FAILURE.

SHOULD THIS DAM FAIL...FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LITTLE
KENTUCKY RIVER IN NORTHERN HENRY COUNTY. THIS WILL AFFECT THE TOWN
OF SULPHUR.


ty
Quoting emcf30:
Problem with dam leads to precautionary evacuations in Henry Co.
Posted: Apr 25, 2011 7:18 PM EDT Updated: Apr 25, 2011 9:58 PM EDT



Posted by Charles Gazaway - email

SULPHER, KY (WAVE) – Slippage at the base of the dam at the Lake Jericho Recreational Area has led to a precautionary evacuation of residents in the area.

At 3:45 p.m. on April 25, the Henry County Emergency Operations Center was notified about the problem. Inspectors at the dam reported erosion and surface cracking. Based on that information, an evacuation order was issued for the Sulpher community and the surrounding homes along the Little Kentucky River.

According to Buddy Rogers with Kentucky Emergency Management in Frankfort, the people evacuated are being moved to the Henry County 4-H Fairgrounds outside of New Castle. Rogers did not know how many people are being affected.

WAVE 3 spoke with Larry Ramsey, property manager at Lake Jericho, who said a 75 foot long and 50 foot tall area has been compromised by the recent rainy weather. Ramsey said there had not been a breach of the dam and a tarp was being placed over the affected area.

An engineer will in inspect the dam at 137 acre lake, which opened in July 1969 and is operated by the Little Kentucky River Watershed Conservancy District, to determine the extent of the damage.


This is the second county in this area that I've had family affected in tonight! My great uncle lives in this immediate area, and says he will stay on his property regardless. He says he lives in a area of higher ground, and all will be good. I'm left with just praying for him. God this moisture needs to pinpoint itself somewhere else, these areas have had all they can withstand!
Quoting IFuSAYso:

Dam*, lol


I think damn is sufficient in these circumstances, no apologies needed.
Quoting emcf30:


People can say what they want about TWC. I agree to the most part but, when there is a severe weather event and Forbes is on, they have excellent coverage. Very informative. I want one of those 3D storm slicing programs.


TWC has been excellent at covering the severe outbreaks of the last couple weeks. Kinda go's back to the time when they was all weather, all the time...
Well-defined coupler on Lufkin, TX tornado in storm relative loop...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=SHV&produc t=N0V&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Little red dot near the field of green moving ESE into Lufkin seems to indicate rotation. Is ESE the direction the NWS has the tornado moving?
Quoting nocaneindy:


TWC has been excellent at covering the severe outbreaks of the last couple weeks. Kinda go's back to the time when they was all weather, all the time...


Yes, they even bump their programs finally.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Well-defined coupler on Lufkin, TX tornado in storm relative loop...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=SHV&pr oduc t=N0V&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Little red dot near the field of green moving ESE into Lufkin seems to indicate rotation. Is ESE the direction the NWS has the tornado moving?


If this is the same one it has it headed east.

AT 1025 PM CDT...USING DOPPLER RADAR...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR BURKE...OR NEAR DIBOLL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HOMER...HUNTINGTON...SHAWNEE...ETOILE AND ZAVALLA
some rotation as the line passes through Memphis on their way to Jackson, TN - one place that has had their fair share of tornadoes...
Nasty bow line passing just north of Memphis, TN, probably where damaging straight line winds likeliest with that band...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=nqa
The damage from Vilonia, AR sounds to me consistent with a low-end EF5 tornado.
Kinda weird asking which tornado they may be talking about. This is crazy!!!

* AT 1008 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 20 MILES WEST OF
WODEN...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LUFKIN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


If this is the same one it has it headed east.

AT 1025 PM CDT...USING DOPPLER RADAR...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR BURKE...OR NEAR DIBOLL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HOMER...HUNTINGTON...SHAWNEE...ETOILE AND ZAVALLA


Yep, that is the tornado warning associated with that coupler....moving east indeed....
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Kinda weird asking which tornado they may be talking about. This is crazy!!!

* AT 1008 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 20 MILES WEST OF
WODEN...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LUFKIN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.


Actually, there are 2 tornadoes moving east, you can see two tornado warnings side-by-side by the end of this animation:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/

oh by the way the last EF5 nado was in parkburg WI i think
Quoting KoritheMan:
Maybe this'll be the 2005 for tornadoes...


Seems like it doesn't it? I thought last year was bad. Seems like everything this year is x10 worse than normal, which by that alone doesn't bode well for hurricane season.
Quoting RTLSNK:
Hey, that heaviest rainfall in E-TX is one of their worst drought areas. (Not all bad news, tonight...just mostly.)
Seems like it doesn't it? I thought last year was bad. Seems like everything this year is x10 worse than normal, which by that alone doesn't bode well for hurricane season.

shhhhhhhhh.....speak softly CT!..lol

Quoting CybrTeddy:


which by that alone doesn't bode well for hurricane season.
As far as I'm aware, there is no direct positive correlation between an intense spring severe weather season, and an active Atlantic hurricane season.
A go at latest storm relative radar shows no more couplers by the end of animation...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=SHV&produc t=N0V&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Plus, it looks like one of the 2 tornado warnings is dropped by Lufkin, TX. That supercell seems to be disorganized and being downgraded to severe thunderstorm warnings.
According to local residents, the damage in Vilonia has been over-exaggerated.

(Link)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hey, that heaviest rainfall in E-TX is one of their worst drought areas. (Not all bad news, tonight...just mostly.)


Was just thinking the same thing...:)
Apparently the damage isn't as bad as early reports claimed out of Vilonia...now from what im reading all over
I think some rather impressive winds are going to be passing just south of Dyesburg in western Tennessee the way that bow echo looks...


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=nqa
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Actually, there are 2 tornadoes moving east, you can see two tornado warnings side-by-side by the end of this animation:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/



This is crazy! Those storms are a little to my north but we spend a lot of time up there at the area lakes. No longer have any family living there though. Thoughts and prayers go out to all who do have friends and loved ones in these affected areas. Hopefully everyone will have adequate warning.
Quoting MrstormX:
According to local residents, the damage in Vilonia has been over-exaggerated.

(Link)
that's great news
Glad to hear the damage wasnt as bad as first reported in Valonia. And the one storm is downgraded by Lufkin. Hope they all lose fuel or steam soon.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


This is crazy! Those storms are a little to my north but we spend a lot of time up there at the area lakes. No longer have any family living there though. Thoughts and prayers go out to all who do have friends and loved ones in these affected areas. Hopefully everyone will have adequate warning.


A lot of good weather communications out there these days....this blog is one of them..IMHO
oops


i mean the last EF5 was in Parkersburg - New Hartford, Iowa
Quoting MrstormX:
Apparently the damage isn't as bad as early reports claimed out of Vilonia...


...according to one "resident"... that "news" site wasn't top notch and the report was vague as hell, so I have my doubts. That being said, it would be really good news to hear that were true...
Supercell in E Texas continues to be tornado warned!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1048 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ANGELINA COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN SABINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
CENTRAL SAN AUGUSTINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1048 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ETOILE...OR
14 MILES EAST OF LUFKIN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. A TORNADO WAS REPORTED
EARLIER WITH THIS STORM NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF WELLS.


* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROSEVINE AND MACUNE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3146 9399 3118 9397 3129 9454 3150 9455
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 281DEG 29KT 3136 9446

$$

13

In this velocity loop, coupler of E Texas supercell tornado more visible...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=POE&produc t=N0V&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

In the field of green by Lufkin, you can see a red dot pass just north of Lufkin city center. At the very end of the animation, it gets hard to see the coupler because of those annoying red tornado warning boxes...
602...

Yes they've had a couple of them up there today already.

04/25/2011 0940 PM

4 miles SSW of Wells, Angelina County.

Tornado, reported by trained spotter.


Tornado on the ground north of Hwy 103 and 7

04/25/2011 0336 PM

1 miles SW of Troup, Cherokee County.

Tornado, reported by law enforcement.


Dps officer reporting brief tornado touchdown near Troup

My God, My God! What a tragic evening.
For good info on Vilonia, follow on Twitter: @cottonr who's from Conway heading into Vilonia, and @bdayberry, network administrator for Vilonia schools. Reports on Twitter indicate the whole town is NOT gone - but there is very serious damage in the heart of town and Quail Hollow.

On the other hand, this just was posted:

cottonr Cotton Rohrscheib
I cant describe this. There's an 18 wheeler in a tree. #arwx #fb
1 minute ago Favorite Retweet Reply

...the truth will be known once daylight arrives in Vilona..guess Mike Slidell is headed that way..I will definitely be watching TWC in the morning..
At this very moment, no tornado warnings, but a lot of severe thunderstorm warnings along a very long squall line in NW Mississippi, SE Arkansas, and into W Tennessee...

The previously tornadic stuff in E Texas now just severe thunderstorm warnings....

www.nws.noaa.gov
Looks Bad.... And seems like more is on the way... Model, Area: GFS, North America

TORNADO WARNING
TXC241-351-260515-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0011.110426T0443Z-110426T0515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1143 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...RAYBURN COUNTRY...BROWNDELL...
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...TOLEDO BEND DAM...BURKEVILLE...MAYFLOWER...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1139 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
BROWNDELL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HARRISBURG BY 1155 PM CDT...
FARRSVILLE BY MIDNIGHT CDT...
MAYFLOWER BY 1210 AM CDT...
BURKEVILLE AND TOLEDO BEND DAM BY 1215 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3119 9353 3112 9354 3111 9356 3108 9354
3102 9354 3101 9357 3095 9357 3098 9410
3111 9411 3112 9405 3115 9404 3118 9383
3118 9358 3121 9355
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 268DEG 29KT 3110 9399

$$
Looks like there may be some redevelopment and training in Arkansas.

That tornado just NE of Jasper is VERY WELL defined on reflectivity...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=POE&produc t=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


and by that red-green coupler in the velocity radar...
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=poe&produc t=N0S&overlay=11101111&loop=no
LOOK AT THESE RAINFALL TOTALS............OMG!!







Quoting TampaSpin:
LOOK AT THESE RAINFALL TOTALS............OMG!!









Its maxed-out the radar color scale in a few spots, whoa!
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Where did you go?

Anyway... Showers directly from 91L are now visible on the Miami Radar.

That must mean its raining on you.
Sorry about that, sammy.... went to sleep for a while... guess my jaunt out into the excitement that was 91L took more out of me than I realized.... lol

It doesn't look like we got much serious rain today after all. Certainly it didn't rain hard enough to wake me up... lol. Looks like whatever clouds were heading our way just blew apart.
Whoa.... just read back most of what I missed this evening... this streak of tornados is amazing. I sure hope the Vilona situation is not as bad as reported, but it seems at least some parts of the town were hit bad...

Prayers and supplications....
No warning out of Lake Charles. But looks like Louisiana is getting it now. Sigh. Take Care everyone. Long day. Lets hope tomorrow is better.

622. xcool
The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
central Hardin County in southeast Texas...
this includes... Silsbee... Lumberton... Kountze...

* until 330 am CDT

* at 254 am CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Honey
Island... moving east at 35 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Kountze by 305 am CDT...
Lumberton by 315 am CDT...
Silsbee by 320 am CDT...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

National Weather Service radar indicates a tornado may form at any
time. Take cover now! Abandon Mobile homes and vehicles. Move to an
interior room or hallway on the lowest floor away from windows.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 am CDT
Tuesday morning for southwestern Louisiana and southeast Texas.


Thats 2 towns to my nw. Y'all be careful over there too xcool.
Now it's my turn. Hope it just a thunderstorm. Wasn't supposed to get down this far.

Statement as of 3:17 AM CDT on April 26, 2011

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
eastern Hardin County in southeast Texas...
this includes... Sour Lake... Silsbee... Lumberton... Kountze...
southeastern Jasper County in southeast Texas...
this includes Evadale...
northern Jefferson County in southeast Texas...
this includes... Port Neches... Central Gardens... Beaumont...
southwestern Newton County in southeast Texas...
this includes Deweyville...
Orange County in southeast Texas...
this includes... West Orange... Vidor... Orange... Mauriceville...
Bridge City...
western Calcasieu Parish in southwest Louisiana...
this includes... Vinton... Starks...
northwestern Cameron Parish in southwest Louisiana...

* until 415 am CDT

* at 317 am CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm... capable of producing quarter size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph... over Lumberton... moving east
at 40 mph.

* The severe thunderstorm will be near...
Evadale by 325 am CDT...
Pine Forest... Vidor and Rose City by 330 am CDT...
gist and Port Neches by 340 am CDT...
Mauriceville... Orangefield and Bridge City by 345 am CDT...
Hartburg by 350 am CDT...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds in excess of 60 mph...
destructive hail... deadly lightning... and heavy rain. Stay indoors...
away from windows.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 am CDT
Tuesday morning for southwestern Louisiana and southeast Texas.


625. Ylee
All the tornado warnings have expired...
Sun soon to rise on my continent's east coast. Sun already shining, for others worldwide.

No Sunshine, for some, today.

Anyone else exhausted?
Quoting aquak9:
Sun soon to rise on my continent's east coast. Sun already shining, for others worldwide.

No Sunshine, for some, today.

Anyone else exhausted?
Yea just Woke up about to head to School...
you got finals this week? have a safe day, SWB.
Quoting aquak9:
you got finals this week? have a safe day, SWB.
Not Finals... Just alot of tests and work, they are cramming in before finals.
Quoting aquak9:
you got finals this week? have a safe day, SWB.
Thanks Aqua, you too.
Good. Hope this band holds together and catches us up on rain for the year.

Good drenching rain band headed into the Florida parishes.

As long as we don't get any tornados, this is very welcome.


Based on buoys, the remnant low near Florida must be down to around 1010mb.
Good drenching rain band headed into the Florida parishes.

what part of Florida is that? wherever you are, I do hope you get some rain, as long as it's in Florida.
633. beell
UPDATED: See Post 651

BP refinery, Dow plant lose power in Texas City

TEXAS CITY, Texas %u2014 Alerts have been issued in Texas City after power failures at a BP refinery and a Dow Chemical plant.

BP and Dow lost power to their facilities, which are next door to each other, around 10:55 p.m. Monday. Both plants shut down all their units when they were unable to restore power.

Emergency management officials issued a shelter-in-place order to residents but the order was lifted around 3 a.m. Tuesday and the alert level, which had been at Level 3, was lowered to Level 2, Texas City Homeland Security Coordinator Bruce Clawson told The Galveston County Daily News. There were no evacuations.

Because of the power outage, BP was flaring to burn off excess product. At least nine large flares could be seen from Interstate 45, the newspaper reported...
Galveston Daily News


Valero and Marathon Refineries also lost power.

Early reports cite deposition of air-born salt particles (these plants are relatively near the coast) between insulators and the high voltage power lines. Something that usually is not a problem with periodic rain. High winds from a series of low pressure systems to our N are thought to have led to "arcing" at the insulators and subsequent power failures.

Speculation at this point.
Quoting RandomText:
Good. Hope this band holds together and catches us up on rain for the year.

Good drenching rain band headed into the Florida parishes.

As long as we don't get any tornados, this is very welcome.


Based on buoys, the remnant low near Florida must be down to around 1010mb.
getting Stronger?
635. IKE

Quoting flsky:
Is this going to hook up w/the texas disturbance?


Sorry, missed your comment last night, went to bed after posting the radar shots, at the speed it was moving I thought it would be here in Macon this morning. Looks like they did merge and then slowed their forward progress.
The bow echo in Louisiana fell apart.

Radar is out to lunch.

Got maybe a minute or two of weather. It's barely even raining and the worst cell supposedly passed right on us.



Oh yeah, the "Florida parishes" is in Louisiana from the Mississippi river eastward, the part of the state which used to be part of the Florida territory.
Good morning,
National Weather Service issuing a Special Weather Briefing for today in New Mexico due to extremely high winds and drought conditions.

We've got both extreme flooding and extreme drought.
hmmm...

NWSSpecialBriefingNM

ARKANSAS (KTHV) -- Emergency officials in Arkansas have confirmed two more storm-related fatalities, bringing the death toll to seven statewide.

The Faulkner County Sheriff's Department has confirmed that four people have died in Faulkner County. Arkansas Department of Emergency Management spokesman Tommy Jackson says two of those people died in Vilonia, where a tornado likely ripped through the area.

The Vilonia fire chief says that 12 people are currently unaccounted for after storms hit central Ark. community. Officials will be going door to door later this morning checking on residents. THV's Ashley Blackstone is live in Vilonia and will have more on "Today's THV This Morning".

Buy listening to the reports last night, guess it could have been much worse.
Very special efforts to help those in Japan affected by the radiation: http://kck.st/hMXtdM //
more info: http://su.pr/1eDUNH

Quoting emcf30:
ARKANSAS (KTHV) -- Emergency officials in Arkansas have confirmed two more storm-related fatalities, bringing the death toll to seven statewide.

The Faulkner County Sheriff's Department has confirmed that four people have died in Faulkner County. Arkansas Department of Emergency Management spokesman Tommy Jackson says two of those people died in Vilonia, where a tornado likely ripped through the area.

The Vilonia fire chief says that 12 people are currently unaccounted for after storms hit central Ark. community. Officials will be going door to door later this morning checking on residents. THV's Ashley Blackstone is live in Vilonia and will have more on "Today's THV This Morning".

Buy listening to the reports last night, guess it could have been much worse.


Yes. Last night the talk was that Valonia had been wiped off of the map including concrete being peeled up.
642. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
550 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...COLD FRONT TO BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE BEACHES OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY...
644. Ylee

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
623 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

MSC031-065-127-129-261200-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0112.000000T0000Z-110426T1200Z/
COVINGTON MS-SMITH MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-SIMPSON MS-
623 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON...NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS...SOUTHERN SMITH
AND NORTHERN COVINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 623 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CLEM MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNT
OLIVE...MIZE AND TAYLORSVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3166 8979 3179 8981 3201 8940 3172 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 1123Z 256DEG 36KT 3174 8975
This is as bad as it can get for current situation in New Mexico and Texas. Jet Stream is bringing up to 80 mph wind gusts into areas with 5-15% humidity some of which are already burning.

Portion of Discussion here:
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 260840

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NM
INTO WRN TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN AZ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL NM...MUCH OF WRN TX INTO CNTRL TX... ...SYNOPSIS...

A POWERFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM DIVING SEWD OVER THE WRN CONUS...AS DEPICTED IN RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A LARGE... DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND WRN CONUS.
INTENSE DEEP-LAYER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET /500-MB AND 700-MB SPEEDS AOA 80 MPH AND 50 MPH...RESPECTIVELY/ WILL TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT EWD...A SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES OVER SERN CO. THE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...INITIALLY TAKING AN E-SEWD TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...AND THEN MOVING EWD IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER...BEFORE MOVING E-NEWD INTO SWRN AR LATE TONIGHT.

DRY TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND TO THE WEST OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE FRONT OVER CNTRL TX. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SURGE EWD TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX.

THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

ALSO OF NOTE...ANY ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREAS OVER TX AND ERN NM WILL BE IMPACTED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NWLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

Complete Discussion Here: Link
Expect strong thunderstorms in E C FL as the East/West coast seabreezes collide over eastern lake, western Orange, western Seminole, western Volusia, and down into Polk County. As the storms blow up over the center of the state then we should see them move slowly back toward the east coast of FL.


Popular Bluff Flooding
651. beell
Another shelter-in-place emergency alert has been issued for a Houston-area city after another refinery lost electricity.

Texas City Homeland Security coordinator Bruce Clawson says the second Level 3 emergency advisory took effect around 5:30 a.m. Tuesday after a Valero refinery also lost power. Clawson told The Associated Press that Level 3 means residents should stay indoors.

Texas City's BP refinery, where a 2005 explosion killed 15 workers, and a Dow Chemical plant lost power around 11 p.m. Monday. Clawson says the initial shelter-in-place order was ordered after those two outages, but was lifted around 3 a.m. Tuesday.

The source of the power outages is sought. No injuries have been reported.

Published April 26, 2011
Associated Press
Looks like some strong to severe wx is to be expected in C and N FL come Thursday afternoon. Very warm moist/unstable enviroment sitting over FL so as the front moves in we should see lots storms area wide Thursday. Picked 1.02" yesterday at my work but only .14" in the rain gauge at my house.
That explains the damage.

tornado was enormous.

3.5 miles wide.

Let's say it was moving 40mph...

Then you'd have up to 5 minutes 15 seconds worth of tornado force winds.


This is one of the biggest I've ever heard of.
Quoting RandomText:
That explains the damage.

tornado was enormous.

3.5 miles wide.

Let's say it was moving 40mph...

Then you'd have up to 5 minutes 15 seconds worth of tornado force winds.


This is one of the biggest I've ever heard of.


What? 3.5 mile wide are you serious because I heard a mile wide? If that is true that would be the largest tornado I've ever heard of. Where's the source?
654:

It was on the news just now.

It was WAFB.
Quoting TampaSpin:
LOOK AT THESE RAINFALL TOTALS............OMG!!









Here just south of Champaign, Illinois I've dumped 1.6", 0.6", 0.75", 0.5", & 1.75" in 5 of the last 6 days. Farmers are not happy.
Quoting RandomText:
654:

It was on the news just now.

It was WAFB.


Incredible if this is true. Some of the unaccounted for may never be found with a tornado that large.
Well, well, well.

We have several waves of low level moisture and even convection forming along the ridge over the atlantic.



Mid level winds are improving over much of the area, so some of it may be able to get some decent flares of convection going.

Hopefully, "something" in all of this will get pumped into Florida or Texas eventually.
659. MahFL
I think 3.5 miles wide is false.
So close yet, so far away. Grrrrrrr


Doc has a Tornado Page here on WU.
Link

I have been looking for the famed tornado since last night and still don't see it on there.
However Reuters and ABC news are documenting the one everyone is talking about.

Reuters

Excerpt:
"In Vilonia, Arkansas, a town of some 3,000 people north of Little Rock, two deaths were confirmed and between 50 to 80 houses were destroyed by a tornado, according to Faulkner County emergency management. Police reported a path of destruction half a mile wide.

Law enforcement officials said there was another fatality in Washington County in northwest Arkansas from a drowning when a woman was swept away by rapidly moving water. The Madison County Sheriff's Office also said an elderly couple died after they were swept away in their car as War Eagle Creek rose in northern Arkansas on Monday afternoon."

662. beell


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR NE TX...FAR SE OK...EXTREME NW LA...AND THE SRN HALF OF
AR...


...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FROM
NE TX/SE OK TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A BROAD SWATH FROM THE SRN
PLAINS EWD/NEWD TO THE MS/OH VALLEYS AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...DANGEROUS TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NE TX ENEWD TO THE MS RIVER...


...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO/IL WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD LOWER
MI TODAY...WHILE AN INTENSE UPSTREAM JET STREAK PROGRESSES ESEWD TO
THE SRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. MORNING SUBSIDENCE OVER AR /IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING WAVE/ WILL BE REPLACED BY ASCENT BEGINNING ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/SRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING
EWD THIS EVENING INTO SE OK/NE TX AND SRN AR OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THIS SAME CORRIDOR IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET. THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRENGTHENING SLY/SSWLY LLJ FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS E TX...BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ORIGINATING TO THE W...WILL PROVIDE MODERATE-STRONG WARM SECTOR
INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE A STRONGLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHICH APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A DANGEROUS
TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK.

...S/SE AR INTO NW MS TODAY...
INITIAL WARM ADVECTION STORMS WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ALONG AND N
OF THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS S/SE AR AND NW MS...AS LOW-LEVEL
WAA INCREASES WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SRH
AOA 200 M2/S2 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...ARKLATEX/SE OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MOVED OVER AR/NW MS LEFT AN E-W OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BECOME THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT TODAY. FARTHER
S...A WEAKENING MCS OVER SRN LA/MS HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/E TX...BUT AN UNIMPEDED FEED OF LOW 70S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS REMAINS TO THE W OF THIS CONVECTION ACROSS SE TX. THE SE
TX MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD TODAY AS THE SRN LA STORMS
DISSIPATE...WHILE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE W. THESE PROCESSES...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG IN THE NE TX WARM SECTOR...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER
INSTABILITY FARTHER E ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR...AND FARTHER N INTO SE
OK.

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
N/NE TX...ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE TO THE IMMEDIATE E/SE OF
THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD SW AR/NW LA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE STRONG INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60
KT...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2...AND A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES
WITH DISCRETE AND CLUSTER SUPERCELLS INTO THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
NIGHTTIME HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS.

...NRN LA/SE AR/NW MS/WRN TN TONIGHT...
AS THE STRONG SYNOPTIC CYCLONE PROGRESSES EWD AND INTERACTS WITH THE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...INTENSE CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN NE TX/SW AR AREA
SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE INTENSE
MCS/S...WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD/INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS TORNADOES. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD/NEWD TO THE MS RIVER LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT ENEWD.

...OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
THE EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BROAD SWATH OF
MODERATE-STRONG SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...ABOVE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION MAKE THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN TODAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION...THOUGH
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 04/26/2011
Quoting Chicklit:
Doc has a Tornado Page here on WU.
Link

I have been looking for the famed tornado since last night and still don't see it.

Anyway, he'll most likely come up with a new blog today that will set the record straight.


From what I heard the tornado was a mile wide and maybe at EF-4 or EF-5 strength. also heard that s couple of towns one being Vilona, ARK is wiped clean from that tornado. Even the roads were scoured out. Amazing force to rip the pavement off.
664. MahFL
The reuters info seems to be from last night, we yet to have see and pics or reports from daylight today.
Quoting emcf30:




That purple spot on the hook image is likely higher reflectivity from the debris cloud. You usually only see those in the most intense of tornadoes (EF3+).

Also, I saw a comment (somewhere) on here, about the Vilonia tornado tearing concrete off the ground. I've heard of asphalt peeling in EF4-EF5, but concrete... not so much. (concrete won't peel like asphalt does - its physics are entirely different)
I'm not sure about you, but I'm pretty sure that Arkansas is calling "Uncle" right about now... They just got slapped with "High Risk" (second of the year) today, too.

I also noticed there is a little pocket of SE TX just outside the slight risk today... What the heck is it going to take to get rid of the cap? Do I really need to sacrifice a small animal (or irritating child) to the rain gods?
Quoting MahFL:
I think 3.5 miles wide is false.



Maybe it traveled 3.5 miles on the ground?
Hi Rasta,
Yeah, news is surfacing about it. I suppose we'll know all about it later on.
I sure hope the rain you're forecasting for us here in Florida materializes. Though not before I get fill put in a big hole in my backyard!
Just had some guys pull out a bunch of brush in a crevice about 25 ft. by 12 ft. and trying to get them back now with fill yesterday and today before it starts raining and the bank up against the drain field falls in!
Imagine all the little catastrophes with all of that rain is wreaking havoc for a lot of people right now.
I have a hard time believing the tornado was 3.5 miles wide. Sure there were high winds maybe this wide with inflow and all. Dr Forbes last night measured the signature last night when it was passing Vilonia and it was about 1 mile wide on radar but maybe less on the ground. JMO
Relentless, driving rain is pounding southern Missouri, leaving levees ready to burst and sending residents to higher ground. And the rain isn't expected to stop for days.

Tuesday brought the promise of more showers and thunderstorms to the area around Poplar Bluff in southeast Missouri It's one of many river towns in the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys threatened by floodwaters.

The already swollen Black River is rising even further, pouring over more than three dozen spots along the levee that protects the southern part of the town of 17,000 residents.

At least five people were killed in Arkansas.

Faulkner County spokesman Stephan Hawks says one person died in the central Arkansas town of Vilonia, where a path of damage stretches three miles wide and 15 miles long. It wasn't immediately clear how the person died.

Authorities have closed off the roadways leading into Vilonia, which residents say all but disappeared in the storms.

Several residents told The Associated Press that the storms damaged homes and business within the city limits. Hawks says nearby creeks are flooding their banks.

Another woman was killed when floodwaters swept her van off a roadway and into the Illinois River in northwestern Arkansas' Washington County.

The storms knocked down trees and powerlines, and more than 70,000 people are without power in Arkansas.

The governor has declared a statewide state of emergency in response to the tornadoes and flooding.

The flooding follows severe storms that began early last week. Again Monday, powerful storms ravaged Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas, Tennessee and other states.

Quoting jeffs713:
That purple spot on the hook image is likely higher reflectivity from the debris cloud. You usually only see those in the most intense of tornadoes (EF3+).

Also, I saw a comment (somewhere) on here, about the Vilonia tornado tearing concrete off the ground. I've heard of asphalt peeling in EF4-EF5, but concrete... not so much. (concrete won't peel like asphalt does - its physics are entirely different)


That's the information everyone is getting from TWC and even CNN. Tremendous and un-imaginable damage is what is being described from the Law Enforcement in the Town of Vilona.
Quoting jeffs713:
That purple spot on the hook image is likely higher reflectivity from the debris cloud. You usually only see those in the most intense of tornadoes (EF3+).

Also, I saw a comment (somewhere) on here, about the Vilonia tornado tearing concrete off the ground. I've heard of asphalt peeling in EF4-EF5, but concrete... not so much. (concrete won't peel like asphalt does - its physics are entirely different)


What was said on TWC and a couple other sources in Arkansas is that it "Scoured the roads".

At which point, Jim Cantore said that the last time such had happened was in the Moore tornado in 1999, I think.

The time before that was the Jarrell tornado in 1997.


The "scoured roads" comment was probably later mis-quoted as "scouring concrete" (which is extremely unlikely).
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Rasta,
Yeah, news is surfacing about it. I suppose we'll know all about it later on.
I sure hope the rain you're forecasting for us here in Florida materializes. Though not before I get fill put in a big hole in my backyard!
Just had some guys pull out a bunch of brush in a crevice about 25 ft. by 12 ft. and trying to get them back now with fill yesterday and today before it starts raining and the bank up against the drain field falls in!
Imagine all the little catastrophes with all of that rain is wreaking havoc for a lot of people right now.


I think the interior will fare good today and some of these storms may break off and head toward the coast this evening. Keep your hopes up!
Yea jeff havent heard of concrete being torn except on here this am, The reports last where the asphalt was scoured on one of the roads. I would love to see a link and some photos of that.
675. IKE

Quoting emcf30:
Yea jeff havent heard of concrete being torn except on here this am, The reports last where the asphalt was scoured on one of the roads. I would love to see a link and some photos of that.
That likely explains it.
Mean while the drought is has caused salt buildup on transmission lines near the TX coast to cause power to go out at all refineries in Texas City.

This is unconfirmed but why else would power go out to all plants?
Quoting RandomText:


What was said on TWC and a couple other sources in Arkansas is that it "Scoured the roads".

At which point, Jim Cantore said that the last time such had happened was in the Moore tornado in 1999, I think.

The time before that was the Jarrell tornado in 1997.


The "scoured roads" comment was probably later mis-quoted as "scouring concrete" (which is extremely unlikely).
I think you are right, and that is what I suspected. An EF3 or 4 can scour (asphalt) roads, but usually that is only done by embedded vorticies. More likely is that we had our first EF5 of the year if it pulled asphalt up from a road.
Video from storm chasers yesterday's tornado.
Link
Quoting IKE:

That likely explains it.

rofl...I sure hope Jeff posts a new blog today.
Lots going on. Back to spreadsheet madness for me.
Have a great day everyone.
DON'T DRIVE INTO WATER!!!!

TEXAS CITY, TX (KTRK) -- Power outages at plants in Texas City have prompted the second shelter-in-place in the last few hours there, and schools in the area have either been canceled or delayed.


Texas City Homeland Security coordinator Bruce Clawson says the second Level 3 emergency advisory took effect around 5:30am Tuesday after a Valero refinery lost power. The Level 3 means residents should stay indoors.

Texas City ISD has canceled classes for the day and La Marque ISD will delay the start of school until 10am, according to district officials.

Texas City BP plant incident prompts shelter in place

The issues involve four facilities in the area. According to the office of emergency management, Valero is attempting to shut down and the Marathon Oil plant is in process of being shut down. Dow Chemical and the BP plant are both down.

Officials say the shelter-in-place and school closures are due to possible issues with air quality around the facilities. The facilities are conducting controlled flares to burn off residual product, reducing the risk of an explosion. The current shelter-in-place is expected to be in effect for the next few hours.

Road closures

Right now, portions of Highway 519 are being blocked near the BP plant. The barricades begin where Highway 519 intersects with Highway 146.

Earlier shelter-in-place

As for the first power loss and shelter-in-place, BP officials tell us their Texas City refinery and chemical plant lost power around 10:55pm. The site immediately called the city and declared a Level 3 emergency. The city had called for a shelter-in-place for its residents, which was lifted around 3am.

BP decided to burn off excess material when the refinery lost power. It's still not clear what caused the power loss.

According to BP officials, there was a small fire on one of the pipestills right after the electrical incident occurred. BP's fire department responded and quickly extinguished the fire.

Plant officials don't know why the plant lost its power, but it did shut down every unit, Texas City Spokesman George Fuller said. Meanwhile, heavy flares shot into the sky for a burn off.


No evacuations were ordered for nearby residents. There are no reported injuries at this time.

The site has also initiated environmental monitoring in areas around the refinery and has shared results with city leaders on an ongoing basis. The cause of the incident remains under review.
Quoting RastaSteve:
Looks like some strong to severe wx is to be expected in C and N FL come Thursday afternoon. Very warm moist/unstable enviroment sitting over FL so as the front moves in we should see lots storms area wide Thursday. Picked 1.02" yesterday at my work but only .14" in the rain gauge at my house.




I can't imagine there will be much of a severe threat Thursday. Instability and moisture will be high but that doesn't seem to matter with cold fronts unless they have lots of upper support and dynamics and this one will be too weak to have any support or dynamics. Just moisture and instability.
I see they are trying to post the TRAM again after NOAA asked them not to. I have to admit, they been right on most of their predictions.
Facebook.
Tornado Risk Analysis Model
Now I am mad ... The project said N. Little Rock would be the worst spot for a deadly tornado and now we have one confirmed fatality from it. I'm working to bring it back ... it is needed. IMMEDIATE ALERT: T.R.A.M. is indicating a deadly, violent, a large tornado for Southern AR on Tuesday evening. Advise, from Nevada and Columbia Counties, East to the MS border and extreme N. Louisiana ...
Link
A tornado responsible for taking lives north of Little Rock, Arkansas is the reminder of how important advanced warnings are, before you even leave the morning of the event.

The Tornado Risk Analysis Model predicts locations of the strongest tornado possibilities and tries to give advanced warnings. The goal of the project is having this vital information before you even leave that morning.

T.R.A.M. has indicated a violent, large, and deadly tornado situation across Southern Arkansas on Tuesday evening. This situation will be one of the strongest tornadoes to hit the Southern part of the state in many years if everything goes according to T.R.A.M.

Details ... The Tornado Risk Analysis Model predicts weak/mod tornado dynamics from back in Northeastern Texas to Southeastern Oklahoma, moving eastward through Central and Northern Arkansas over the afternoon.
Intense instability in Southern Arkansas will contribute to this violent situation with the lack of storms over the morning and early afternoon there.

A storm system will develop in Northeastern Texas, moving NE into Southwestern Arkansas, gaining strength as the hours move by. This storm system will move through Southern Arkansas with violent and deadly tornadoes, curving from due east to east-northeast to the Mississippi River.

Advise that a 998MB surface low is developing just NW of this storm and this will increase the low level shear

A NOAA Particular Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch box will be needed ... however TRAM issues boxes and the rarely seen Enhanced Tornado Watch box has been simulated.

After a very active Monday, a possibly even more significant severe weather episode is on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday. Unfortunately many of the same areas hit hard on Monday will be under the gun late Tuesday into Wednesday. A very complex pattern is taking shape for what could be a significant tornado outbreak. Several strong shortwave impulses have been rotating around the base of a Longwave trough situated across the Plains. One such impulse has moved through Monday evening and led to a surface low forming in Missouri. This low is expected to move quickly off to the Northeast and occlude as the shortwave energy quickly ejects.

This will set the stage for an even stronger jet streak to enter the longwave trough.



This intense jet energy will help create very strong upper level dynamics as the trough becomes negatively tilted. Furthermore, the extreme upper level divergence will help create a near perfect environment for strong cyclogenesis (formation of a surface low). This will set the stage for explosive convective development on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Quoting RitaEvac:
TEXAS CITY, TX (KTRK) -- Power outages at plants in Texas City have prompted the second shelter-in-place in the last few hours there, and schools in the area have either been canceled or delayed.


Texas City Homeland Security coordinator Bruce Clawson says the second Level 3 emergency advisory took effect around 5:30am Tuesday after a Valero refinery lost power. The Level 3 means residents should stay indoors.

Texas City ISD has canceled classes for the day and La Marque ISD will delay the start of school until 10am, according to district officials.

Texas City BP plant incident prompts shelter in place

The issues involve four facilities in the area. According to the office of emergency management, Valero is attempting to shut down and the Marathon Oil plant is in process of being shut down. Dow Chemical and the BP plant are both down.

Officials say the shelter-in-place and school closures are due to possible issues with air quality around the facilities. The facilities are conducting controlled flares to burn off residual product, reducing the risk of an explosion. The current shelter-in-place is expected to be in effect for the next few hours.

Road closures

Right now, portions of Highway 519 are being blocked near the BP plant. The barricades begin where Highway 519 intersects with Highway 146.

Earlier shelter-in-place

As for the first power loss and shelter-in-place, BP officials tell us their Texas City refinery and chemical plant lost power around 10:55pm. The site immediately called the city and declared a Level 3 emergency. The city had called for a shelter-in-place for its residents, which was lifted around 3am.

BP decided to burn off excess material when the refinery lost power. It's still not clear what caused the power loss.

According to BP officials, there was a small fire on one of the pipestills right after the electrical incident occurred. BP's fire department responded and quickly extinguished the fire.

Plant officials don't know why the plant lost its power, but it did shut down every unit, Texas City Spokesman George Fuller said. Meanwhile, heavy flares shot into the sky for a burn off.


No evacuations were ordered for nearby residents. There are no reported injuries at this time.

The site has also initiated environmental monitoring in areas around the refinery and has shared results with city leaders on an ongoing basis. The cause of the incident remains under review.


Gas prices will now spike by 10 cents in 3... 2... 1...
High Risk of Severe Weather now up:





The Vilonia 3D


SEVERE Flooding might be an under statement! WOW! Its just not gonna stop it seems. My Mother in Indiana has to drive 30 miles around flooding just to get to certain places!
684, OPEC just hasn't heard yet. But when they do, that'll give them reason to spike em
Guarantee you Jeff it's salt buildup on lines
Quoting emcf30:


The Vilonia 3D



What is the best and most economical for your money Weather radar program that you all use!
Stephenville, TX


Quoting TampaSpin:
LOOK AT THESE RAINFALL TOTALS............OMG!!








I was watching that radar last night, compared then to now, much more rain, only 2 little spots of 15+, now alot
Return flow already?! look at the showers moving north near Lake Charles, LA



It really does not stop in the same areas for the next 10 days.......maybe a 1 or 2 day breather, then it starts all over again!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Guarantee you Jeff it's salt buildup on lines
Oh, I know. And I wasn't talking about oil prices. i was talking about gas prices. It will be seen as a "disruption of supply", and therefore a critical possible maybe shortage of gasoline, which is requires an urgent and entirely unreasonable jacking up of prices.
You gotta be effing kidding me? They got this much rain last night?




I don't have time today, but i got a job for someone to do! I would love to see the comparison of springs with high tornado numbers and how they compare to the upcoming Hurricane Season. May not be any correlation at all, but would be interesting to plot those years out and compare. If anyone does this please zip me an email. Thanks!
Quoting TampaSpin:
I don't have time today, but i got a job for someone to do! I would love to see the comparison if springs with high tornado numbers and how the compares to the upcoming Hurricane Season. May not be any correlation at all, but would be interesting to plot those years out and compare. If anyone does this please zip me an email. Thanks!
post it on the blog too....
My NOAA alarm went off last night around 1:55AM and heard Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and I just rolled over and thought, yea right, gotta cap over us people. Didn't realize it was that close and yet so far at the same time, man they got good rains up there, and widespread too.

Quoting sammywammybamy:
post it on the blog too....


If someone emails me i will post it on the Blog......i also started a forum on my site....if anyone wants to post their findings and results there for everyone to view!
Well the cap did break over SE TX, just not the Houston/Galveston area.
697:

Well, there is a band moving through south central Louisiana which has 2.5 and 3 inch per hour rainfall totals.

Overnight, the entire line of storms was much stronger than it is now.

It died just west of Tangipahoa parish, and we've really only got some light spinkles here, except one band of moderate rain.

I think we are up to around a quarter inch total this morning.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
So close yet, so far away. Grrrrrrr


Exactly my thoughts this a.m. I am asking "where's my rain" and not getting much of an answer....

Another beautiful spring day here. Thoughts and prayers out to pple in the storm ridden areas today...
Quoting RitaEvac:
My NOAA alarm went off last night around 1:55AM and heard Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and I just rolled over and thought, yea right, gotta cap over us people. Didn't realize it was that close and yet so far at the same time, man they got good rains up there, and widespread too.


Yeah... just missed most of the metro area. On another note, it was humid enough this morning to register as "rainfall" at a local PWS.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Video from storm chasers yesterday's tornado.
Link
This guy is crazy... u do not sit there saying I gatta get outta here while NOT DRIVING and continuing to film.... crazy, man...

Quoting BahaHurican:
Exactly my thoughts this a.m. I am asking "where's my rain" and not getting much of an answer....

Another beautiful spring day here. Thoughts and prayers out to pple in the storm ridden areas today...
what happened to 91L circulation?
708:

Wind destroyed it.

Some of the buoys had gusts over 30kts though.

Pressure was near 1010mb very early morning.

Unfortunately, the ridge eroded too much and most of the moisture is not going to hit Florida after all.

Surface winds are moving it more to the north, too far north to help.
Quoting aquak9:
Good drenching rain band headed into the Florida parishes.

what part of Florida is that? wherever you are, I do hope you get some rain, as long as it's in Florida.
lol. That is a group of parishes in LA that once were part of the Florida territory and, for 90 days, the Republic of West Florida.


Including: Baton Rouge, Slidell, Bay St. Louis, Biloxi, Mobile.

The Louisiana Purchase did not include any of present-day LA north of Lake P and east of the MS river. (Howdy from just west of the center...)
Wow. Thought I'd see more shear at Shreveport than this...

Quoting atmoaggie:
Wow. Thought I'd see more shear at Shreveport than this...


Looks more like speed shear, rather than directional shear.
new blog