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March in the U.S.: Crazy Mild, Inconsistently Wet

By: Bob Henson 4:51 PM GMT on April 06, 2016

After the mildest winter in U.S. history, March kept the theme going. Last month ended up as the 4th warmest March in records going back to 1895, according to the monthly analysis released on Wednesday by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. The warmth was much more consistent than usual for a strong El Niño year (see Figure 3), and more extensive than had been projected in February’s outlook for March. All 48 contiguous states (plus Alaska) were substantially milder than average. Every state from the Northern and Central Plains east to New York notched a top-ten warmest March (Figure 1), although only Alaska (not shown) had its warmest March on record. The nation’s most impressive burst of early-spring warmth arrived in Alaska on the last day of the month, when southeastern parts of the state basked in summerlike readings. A high of 71°F on March 31 at Klawock set a state record for March.


Figure 1. State-by-state temperature rankings for March 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 2. State-by-state precipitation rankings for March 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

Precipitation: big winners, big losers
For the nation as a whole, it was a reasonably moist month overall--the 26th wettest March on record for the 48 contiguous states--but the precipitation map itself is a checkerboard of anomalies (Figure 2). The most striking was in the Southwest: New Mexico had its driest March on record (the statewide average was just 0.06”), while its next-door neighbor, Texas, had its 12th wettest March (2.85”). This juxtaposition is a bit artificial, because most of the heavy rains in Texas were focused in the state’s eastern reaches, next to Louisiana (2nd wettest March on record) and Arkansas (3nd wettest). Likewise, although California had its 24th wettest March, most of that liquid gold fell in the northern and central parts of the state, with precious little in Southern California.

Some of the other impressively wet and dry states included Wisconsin (2nd wettest), Mississippi and Michigan (4th wettest), Washington (8th wettest), Virginia (7th driest), New Jersey and Arizona (9th driest), and Pennsylvania (10th driest).



Figure 3. March departures from average temperature (left) and precipitation (right) following the strongest El Niño events in the NOAA record, dating back to 1950: March 1958, 1966, 1973, 1983, and 1988. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL/PSD.


Drenched and parched: our pick locations for March
When it comes to dryness last month, it’s hard to top Arizona. Both Phoenix and Yuma failed to record a single drop of measurable rain--not even a trace. Phoenix’s last measurable rain was on January 31, although the city is a long way from toppling its record-long dry stretch (160 days, set in 1972).

Meanwhile, Memphis, TN, racked up 16.20” for the month. This smashes the previous March record of 13.04” from the region’s devastating spring of 1927, which brought the worst river flood in our nation’s history. Memphis records go back to 1872. Little Rock, AR, also got its wettest March by far since records began in 1875, with 12.33” this month beating out 10.43” (1897). And the 12.83” in Shreveport, LA, beat out 11.99” from March 1945, in records going all the way back to 1871. One of the hardest-hit areas was the Sabine River, which separates Louisiana and Texas. A record flood crest of 33.24 feet at Deweyville, TX--beating a record set in 1884--inundated the town of about 1200 residents for days. Deweyville schools have now been closed for several weeks, as the school system finds itself facing more than $10 million in uninsured losses.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. Homes in Deweyville, TX, are surrounded by floodwaters from the nearby Sabine River on March 15, 2016.

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok henson!
Next week is still showing a possible severe weather setup. It's still many days out but something to keep an eye on.
Thanks for the update Mr. Henson.
GFS showing a possible invest next week north of Puerto Rico?

Looks like another significant cyclone for Fiji, with significant rain predicted.
Bad news.
http://reliefweb.int/report/fiji/ocha-flash-updat e-1-fiji-tc-zena-6-april-2016
When the pattern switch truly comes................Watch Out. Climate a'int what it use to be. Late Spring is going to be bad. Anyone see the new projections for sea level rise?
AccuWeather and Crown Weather Services released their 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season forecasts. AccuWeather has 14/8/4 while Crown Weather has 11/7/2 but interesting things both are discussing about the different factors.



Accuweather forecast

Crown Weather forecast
Quoting 4. fmbill:

GFS showing a possible invest next week north of Puerto Rico?




Seems phantom or a real too fast analog of conditions. We're a month out from the real pattern change.
Projections for this Hurricane season are a guess at best. We are in uncharted realms. We could see anything. As Sar would say, ask your eight ball. Miss him. As much as he annoyed me at times. :)
The El-Nino jet stream that has been boss has shown wind directional changes that suggest a La-Nina, perhaps a very strong one, could verify though summer. If a switch of this magnitude were to occur we would see conditions that would make 2015 look normal. 2015 was very very far from normal.
Thanks for the update Mr Henson! Hope we get a wet April in Soo Cal.
GFS is showing a major heat wave across Greenland for the next two weeks with temperatures averaging 15-20 degrees above average.


Quoting 10. DeepSeaRising:

The El-Nino jet stream that has been boss has shown wind directional changes that suggest a La-Nina, perhaps a very strong one, could verify though summer. If a switch of this magnitude were to occur we would see conditions that would make 2016 look normal. 2016 was very very far from normal.


What year is it where you live?
A couple tenths in the gauge so far in S C IL, but the yellow & orange bands have stayed W of us so far. Felt noticeably cooler at lunch than this morning, truck said 49, pretty sure it was in 50s this a.m. Still forecasting 27 for our Sat. morning low, hope no lower, better yet a couple higher, as cherries in full bloom and peaches showing pink.

Farmers have been going full bore last week or two, some fields planted, so hope this will be our last freeze. Haven't looked for morels since last Tues. as have had relatively cold mornings, some have been found, though probably in warmer spots than my patch.
Good afternoon all

Radar showing just a bit of chaff down here today...

Link

Clear blue skies here with a moderate cool breeze.
Quoting 7. Tropicsweatherpr:

Accuweather and Crown Weather Services released their 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season forecasts. Accuweather has 14/8/4 while Crown Weather has 11/7/2 but interesting things both are discussing about the different factors.



Accuweather forecast

Crown Weather forecast


What are the factors that Crown Weather are thinking
Quoting 12. Sfloridacat5:

GFS is showing a major heat wave across Greenland for the next two weeks with temperatures averaging 15-20 degrees above average.





Source please? I'd just like to get the timing down for glacier watching
Quoting 17. CraigsIsland:



Source please? I'd just like to get the timing down for glacier watching


7-12 Celsius above average in the 6-10 day outlook of CFS.

source: tropicaltidbits.com
Quoting 16. wunderkidcayman:



What are the factors that Crown Weather are thinking
Negative AMO.
Quoting 17. CraigsIsland:



Source please? I'd just like to get the timing down for glacier watching


GFS is showing above normal temps going until about the 21st of the month. At times the temps look to be 20 degrees above normal.
Yeah, Levi's site at Tropicaltidbits
Quoting 10. DeepSeaRising:

The El-Nino jet stream that has been boss has shown wind directional changes that suggest a La-Nina, perhaps a very strong one, could verify though summer. If a switch of this magnitude were to occur we would see conditions that would make 2015 look normal. 2015 was very very far from normal.
Quoting 19. Gearsts:

Negative AMO.


Has anyone thought about the idea that the cold pool in the Northern N Atlantic may warm up become neutral or even go positive by the time we go into the hurricane season or the active part of the season Aug/Sept
Quoting 13. LouisPasteur:



What year is it where you live?


I'm a little ahead of the times. Trump wins nomination, Hillary stumbles after being indicted during the head to head with Trump. Trump leads to world upheaval and AGW becomes a backstory as world unravels and the masses are culled. See, I just solved AGW! AGW is very real and very serious. But so is human behavior based on fear, anger, and lack of truth. We've seen this history lesson. We may not get the chance to see it again if we wish to go down that dark road of un-enlightenment. But we can't even decide AGW is really happening even though science is absolutely overwhelming. So maybe Trump it will be. We can embrace truth or fear, anger, and prejudice. The world is watching.
Quoting 6. DeepSeaRising:

When the pattern switch truly comes................Watch Out. Climate a'int what it use to be. Late Spring is going to be bad. Anyone see the new projections for sea level rise?


Whatever happened to Sar anyways? I have not heard from anyone on this site as to his where abouts?
thanks guys for the source on the temps over greenland. Will be watching neven's forums for the images of glacial activities
Quoting 22. wunderkidcayman:



Has anyone thought about the idea that the cold pool in the Northern N Atlantic may warm up become neutral or even go positive by the time we go into the hurricane season or the active part of the season Aug/Sept

I have. It usually always does.
Quoting 24. ILwthrfan:



Whatever happened to Sar anyways? I have not heard from anyone on this site as to his where abouts?


I've put out the feelers. Heard nothing. I've talked to those who knew him best. He never missed a day. He's been gone for sixty days. I fear that he's passed. Find it the most likely answer. I hope I'm wrong. He was here daily for a decade. Our time here is short, may we not waste it.
Quoting 22. wunderkidcayman:



Has anyone thought about the idea that the cold pool in the Northern N Atlantic may warm up become neutral or even go positive by the time we go into the hurricane season or the active part of the season Aug/Sept

I have. It usually always does.
Quoting 22. wunderkidcayman:



Has anyone thought about the idea that the cold pool in the Northern N Atlantic may warm up become neutral or even go positive by the time we go into the hurricane season or the active part of the season Aug/Sept

I haven't.

At first sight I dismiss the idea. Stats this century for one are strikingly consistently against it.
The mechanism behind that Cold Pool shows no signs of abating at all.
And the energy involved, and the change of currents that may already be involved, appear to me too vast to be overturned inside of one season.

Addendum... I went through the NASA/GISS temp anomaly maps July-Sept-Aug 2005 till last year and on those #28 would be right (if 'usually always' gets some rarification). The Atlantic Cold Pool doesn't show on air temps, that is.
Quoting 24. ILwthrfan:



Whatever happened to Sar anyways? I have not heard from anyone on this site as to his where abouts?
Somewhere in the space time continuum.
Good evening and thanks for the infos on March, Bob. In my western part of Germany temperatures in March had been NORMAL, go figure! In the east slightly above average (here the map for Germany; the one for whole Europe isn't yet available for me).

--------------------

Told you yesterday of the severe flooding in northeastern Argentina (La Paz) and Uruguay, no? This morning exactly the same game once again with another severe thunderstorm in the same region. Here a pic of this time:


Source. Here a loop.

Local Spanish newspaper says that unfortunately two persons died (one of them a child) and about 20.000 persons were evacuated in the region of El Litoral:
Dos muertos y cerca de 20 mil evacuados en el litoral ante las crecidas
De la Redaccion de Diario Registrado / Miercoles 6 de abril de 2016 | 08:57


Map from the article above with the numbers of evacuees in different towns (Concordia is the place where the latest storm hit).

-----------------------

South Pacific: Cyclone Zena has passed the main islands of Fiji to the south:
Fiji cyclone weakens, moves away
23 minutes ago
After a night of heavy rain and thunderstorms, the latest cyclone threatening Fiji has weakened and is moving away from the island group. ...
Back to the Greenland issue.
Based on Wunderground, Nuuk, Greenland will have afternoon highs above freezing on 9 out of the next 10 days. It's even showing high temperatures in the mid 40s for Sunday- Tuesday of next week.

Even more remarkable is Nuuk had a high of 48 degrees on Monday and Tuesday this week. Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 20s. So yes, temperatures have been occasionally hitting 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

It's only early April and Greenland is most likely experiencing some melting.
Quoting 30. washingtonian115:

Somewhere in the space time continuum.


Are you ever going to let him out? He was grating at times. Know we both felt that way. But he was opinionated and intelligent, and informed. Glad we still have Gro! Sar was the moderate Republican who believed the truth on AGW, stood on it, and would rally towards that which was the best of who we are as a Nation. Disagree with him often as I and many did, he was a good member. If he is gone for good, then he will be missed. I'm 39, so I'm at the point where loss is profound in my life. Such as it will be for us all. May we live, laugh, forgive, and never give up.
Quoting 24. ILwthrfan:
Whatever happened to Sar anyways? I have not heard from anyone on this site as to his where abouts?

He didn't answer my WU-mail about his whereabouts. Not good, as he usually would have answered me. :-(
Quoting 26. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I have. It usually always does.
Quoting 32. Sfloridacat5:

Back to the Greenland issue.
Based on Wunderground, Nuuk, Greenland will have afternoon highs above freezing on 9 out of the next 10 days. It's even showing high temperatures in the mid 40s for Sunday- Tuesday of next week.

Even more remarkable is Nuuk had a high of 48 degrees on Monday and Tuesday this week. Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 20s. So yes, temperatures have been occasionally hitting 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

It's only early April and Greenland is most likely experiencing some melting.

Temperature anomalies in Greenland in the next days are really frightening! Go here and click "Animation" (or the forward arrow) to see them.



Here a map for day 6, similar to day 5 - and the other days of the week aren't much colder.
www.co2.earth

Atmospheric CO2

March 2016

404.83
parts per million (ppm)


Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (NOAA)

Preliminary data released April 5, 2016
Very interesting information. Thanks for summarizing. In Grand Rapids where we do snow removal services, we were nearly as busy as usual with deicing. It didn't feel like the mildest winter on record, but it's interesting to see how the totals came in across the US. Thanks.

For 8 years now barbamz many of us have been screaming the temp obs were and continue to run well above the Climate Modeling Projections.

More so now at a ever increasing rate.


Yeah us'



Quoting 27. DeepSeaRising:



I've put out the feelers. Heard nothing. I've talked to those who knew him best. He never missed a day. He's been gone for sixty days. I fear that he's passed. Find it the most likely answer. I hope I'm wrong. He was here daily for a decade. Our time here is short, may we not waste it.


I've heard from others that know his given name and his name has not shown up in any obituary.
I was thinking that maybe his eyes were giving him issues again or that he is in the hospital.
I pray for him every day and miss him much
Thank You Mr. Henson; and let us not forget (in keeping with the theme of record average back to back warmer years/months now including 2015 and going into 2016), that the NE US region had record highs in the November-December winter period (with the loss of millions of dollars in the retail industry in terms of winter wear versus millions of dollars of savings for consumers in terms of heating bills).

Here in North Florida the typical El Nino pattern of a cool/wet Winter only partially materialized this past Winter; the rain was pretty much there, and particularly in the last two months, but the temps were very mild and not really that cool or cold except for a few days following a cold low. For the section of the country that you mention (the MS Valley region), they have been crushed by March rains due to the trajectory of these recent lows which emerged out of Mexico and the SW US into the mid-section as opposed to the more typical El Nino Northern Gulf Coast lows that move up the Eastern Seaboard and morph into strong Nor'Easters...........Have not had many/any of those this past Winter either.
ESPI is down to 0.87 from 0.91 yesterday. Overall it took a large drop over the last few weeks from the last peak ~1.6. Moving faster toward neutral conditions now.
Quoting 27. DeepSeaRising:



I've put out the feelers. Heard nothing. I've talked to those who knew him best. He never missed a day. He's been gone for sixty days. I fear that he's passed. Find it the most likely answer. I hope I'm wrong. He was here daily for a decade. Our time here is short, may we not waste it.
Quoting 34. barbamz:


He didn't answer my WU-mail about his whereabouts. Not good, as he usually would have answered me. :-(
Quoting 30. washingtonian115:

Somewhere in the space time continuum.


I am with all of you on the sentiment. Always thought he was one more passionate weather nerds among us... I had not realized it has been already two months...:/ I will have to hoist up a cold one or eight tonight for the guy. He was the kind of blogger that really represented what WU was all about to the type of passion that most of us weather nerds hold dear. If all is not well, then God's Speed Sar.




Been poking around a little bit looking at how to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and found that Xerox has some patents for BPMED (bipolar membrane electrodialysis). Anyone know how far along before this becomes feasible?
I'll continue to read on my own but with so many on here educated in climate change I thought that someone might have information readily available
sar most likely just moved on. he was stubburn yet so very worldly. miss his comments.
Enjoy your day !God bless.
Climate data since Vikings cast doubt on more wet, dry extremes
Source: Reuters - Wed, 6 Apr 2016 17:00 GMT
OSLO, April 6 (Reuters) - Climate records back to Viking times show the 20th century was unexceptional for rainfall and droughts despite assumptions that global warming would trigger more wet and dry extremes, a study showed on Wednesday.
Stretching back 1,200 years, written accounts of climate and data from tree rings, ice cores and marine sediments in the northern hemisphere indicated that variations in the extremes in the 20th century were less than in some past centuries.
"Several other centuries show stronger and more widespread extremes," lead author Fredrik Ljungqvist of Stockholm University told Reuters of findings published in the journal Nature. "We can't say it's more extreme now."...
Ljungqvist said the findings did not mean current climate change, blamed on rising man-made greenhouse gas emissions, was less of a threat than thought. ...
"This paper adds to the growing evidence that the simple paradigm of 'wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier' under a warming climate does not apply over land areas," said Ted Shepherd, a professor at the University of Reading. ...

Whole article see link above.
Quoting 22. wunderkidcayman:



Has anyone thought about the idea that the cold pool in the Northern N Atlantic may warm up become neutral or even go positive by the time we go into the hurricane season or the active part of the season Aug/Sept
The experts? Well of course they thought about the idea of the AMO going positive. But if the AMO has fully turn negative the chance for it going ++ are low this year.
Mixed extreme weather news:

Death toll in Pakistan still rising:
Rescuers search for 23 in Pakistani landslide; flood toll at 92
Source: Reuters - Wed, 6 Apr 2016 09:47 GMT

Heatwave kills 66 in India’s Telangana state
Extremely hot weather forces people to say indoors during peak hours
Published: 17:28 April 6, 2016
Hyderabad: The unusually harsh summer heat in Telangana has already started taking a huge toll of human life. ...

Heatwave condition hits state
Vithika Salomi | TNN | Apr 6, 2016, 11.07 PM IST
Patna: It is just the first week of April and heatwave has suddenly hit parts of Bihar. Weathermen have warned of such condition continuing even on Thursday. Patnaites do not seem to be getting any relief from the singeing sun and are sweating buckets with the mercury touching the fretful 40 degrees celsius for the first time in the season on Tuesday. ...

Rwanda: Heavy Rains Continue to Wreck Havoc
5 April 2016, The East African (Nairobi)
Enhanced rainfall has already claimed lives of 12 people, while 19 others were injured in the last three days, in addition to huge damages. ...

North Koreans hardest hit by natural disasters, study shows
By Elizabeth Shim | April 6, 2016 at 11:42 AM
SEOUL, April 6 (UPI) -- Nearly 7 out of 10 North Koreans were affected by natural disasters in 2015, including droughts and floods.
The analysis from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the University of Leuven in Belgium indicated that about 18 million North Koreans were disaster-stricken to varying degrees, the highest among all countries in the world.
North Korea was ranked No. 1 in most affected by disasters, followed by India with 16.6 million, Ethiopia with 10.2 million and Nepal with 5.6 million ...
Quoting 20. Sfloridacat5:



GFS is showing above normal temps going until about the 21st of the month. At times the temps look to be 20 degrees above normal.
Yeah, Levi's site at Tropicaltidbits



The vital question and answer has to be, are temps of +20 degrees above normal still temps that are below freezing?
Have to go and call it a night, but not without an outlook on the "dusticane" (my wording, lol) which is about to develop due to an (unnamed) cut-off low over northern Africa and to spread significant greetings from the Sahara over large parts of Europe, especially the central Mediterranean countries tomorrow and then to the eastern parts.
Here the forecast of the dustload for tomorrow from the University in Athens (see the structure?):




Current saved airmass pic with the busy dust collector over Algeria and Tunesia at the bottom (top of the pic is stormy low Ninotschka, currently over the UK). Source.

Here is a nice site which is showing a lot of loops of dust forecasts for Europe from several models at the same time: Compared dust forecasts

Good conversations and then sleep well!
Quoting 45. islander101010:

sar most likely just moved on. he was stubburn yet so very worldly. miss his comments.


Let's hope that was just it. He seemed to get easily frustrated on here.
Chamber of Commerce weather here in Central Florida and it is going to get even nicer this weekend. Unfortunately our long hot/humid summer is right around the corner.
Quoting 50. PlazaRed:



The vital question and answer has to be, are temps of 20 degrees above normal still temps that are below freezing?


Some areas are above freezing with temperatures in the mid 40s. On Monday and Tuesday Nuuk, Greenland had a high of 48 degrees. Direct sunlight can also increase melting.



Last day of heat, it is 90.9 and creeping higher, 98F @KRAL, 94.0 @Indian Hills PWS. Seems to be a much better
rainfall forecast today than yesterday. Saturday is the best chance for a good result but there are chances for 7 days
Thurs-Thurs. This mornings low was 58.3, normal is 74/49
Noting :-
51. barbamz
10:45 PM CEST on April 06, 2016

On the map the dust levels are measured as milligrams per square meter.
Assuming that 5,000 milligrams to be 5 grams, (this is about a 5th of an ounce over every square yard.)
There are 1 million square meters to a square kilometre, so :-
At 5 grams to the square meter, this would be 5 million grams, or 5,000 kilos, which is 5 tones approximately to the square kilometre.
This is about 5,000 kilograms or 11,000 pounds of dust to a square kilometre.
That amount of dust is serious over such a large area.

We recently had a bit of Saharan dust in the rain and almost everything afterwards is covered in red dust stains.
The last I read on here about Sar was all the problem's he was having with WU, and that he had found another site.
From Levi's site - currently only the 12z is up.

"April 6th: Model data from NCEP is experiencing delays. Expect the 18Z NAM, GFS, and other NCEP models to be late."
91 F at the beach in...San Francisco right now! Easterly flow, all the way out to the offshore buoys. Satellite and forecasts indicate a cutoff low to the southwest being picked up by upper level winds undercutting the ridge, which itself is drifting east. Forecasts showing rain returning here in NorCal by Friday with a rainy period setting up into next week and maybe beyond.
Quoting 22. wunderkidcayman:



Has anyone thought about the idea that the cold pool in the Northern N Atlantic may warm up become neutral or even go positive by the time we go into the hurricane season or the active part of the season Aug/Sept

Assuming that cold pool is being fed by increased melting from the Greenland icecap, it seems more likely that it will persist if not enlarge.
justmehouston, check your mail

65. vis0

Quoting 24. ILwthrfan:



Whatever happened to Sar anyways? I have not heard from anyone on this site as to his where abouts?
and Grothar the last few days or pablosyn? and a few others very well known wxu members my terrible memory can't hold...
Quoting 9. DeepSeaRising:

Projections for this Hurricane season are a guess at best. We are in uncharted realms. We could see anything. As Sar would say, ask your eight ball. Miss him. As much as he annoyed me at times. :)


Did Sar quit or something ?
Quoting 53. Bucsboltsfan:

Chamber of Commerce weather here in Central Florida and it is going to get even nicer this weekend. Unfortunately our long hot/humid summer is right around the corner.


Hey you never know we could a have a parade of cooling tropical cyclones :).
New Record High here in Eureka, CA today: 76F. I was inland earlier today and it was pushing 90, which is crazy hot for the first week of April.
Well I decided not to take the position.I had to take into account the factors that were/are going on right now in my life and I don't want to drag my family with me as my husband is a government worker and would make less if we moved and the children didn't want to move halfway across the country either.I have decided to stay in the D.C area.
Antarctica in the year 2500

Link
Hurricane scorecard 2016 still going
Heads up!
Quoting 65. vis0:


and Grothar the last few days or pablosyn? and a few others very well known wxu members my terrible memory can't hold...



I'm still here. I figure I'll stay around on the blog for another 100 years or so and then move on.



The potential movement of a 'cold blob' of water in the North Atlantic Ocean may be the wild card in the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, experts say.

The cold blob refers to a large, anomalous area of colder-than-normal sea-surface temperatures, located east of Newfoundland and south of Greenland.

"This area of colder water started to show up a few years ago and has become larger and more persistent during the past couple of years," AccuWeather Atlantic Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
Quoting 64. PedleyCA:

justmehouston, check your mail




responded ...wish they would fix the alert as I dont like to interrupt the blog alterting people about mail.

Been absolutely awesome here with temps in the 70's and on and off clouds
Quoting 66. MahFL:



Did Sar quit or something ?


Been a long while since I have seen sar.......hope he is well.
Quoting 74. Grothar:


Very Impressive.
12z NAM has most rain tomorrow in the deserts, missing most populated areas.



while the 18z NAM gets just about everywhere!

Quoting 22. wunderkidcayman:



Has anyone thought about the idea that the cold pool in the Northern N Atlantic may warm up become neutral or even go positive by the time we go into the hurricane season or the active part of the season Aug/Sept


Uh, the hallmark of a potentially active season are anomalously warm SSTs in the tropical regions. One of the biggest reasons why the AMO is most likely negative (albeit this year should actually tell us) for awhile.
Quoting 71. MaxWeather:

Hurricane scorecard 2016 still going
Heads up!


Put me in for 25/15/10
Winter in retreat

Quoting 78. HurricaneHunterJoe:

12z NAM has most rain tomorrow in the deserts, missing most populated areas.



while the 18z NAM gets just about everywhere!



Very similar to a decaying tropical system in this region.
Quoting 71. MaxWeather:

Hurricane scorecard 2016 still going
Heads up!
12/6/2
Hi guys
Please see my blog to drop your prediction there. Or wu mail me.

I WILL MISS YOUR PREDICTION IF YOU POST IT HERE!!!

It just takes you a minute. Not trying to deviate the traffic, it just facilitates listing it for me.

I'm not around too much as you know.
Thanks
Good evening folks. I've been reading and watching for the last few months. I'm throwing my 2016 hurricane season prediction into the ring. I had one last year but it was too late for the official tally. Either way it was off by about 2 named storms (short) and a major.

My 2016 prediction is: 17/10/4
Update: Official high was actually 78, beating the old record for the day by 8 degrees. Crescent City, near the Oregon border but on the coast, where Governor Brown is attending an "Undam The Klamath" ceremony, also had a record high today of 78, beating the old record by 6.

Sun is going down now. All the windows open, so I should be comfy soon (no AC). It probably helps that it was 47 when I woke up this morning. And with clear skies, it may get close to that again in 12 hours.
Quoting 19. Gearsts:

Negative AMO.


Has anyone thought about the idea that the cold pool in the Northern N Atlantic may warm up become neutral or even go positive by the time we go into the hurricane season or the active part of the season Aug/Sept
Quoting 26. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I have. It usually always does.


Yes

Quoting 63. BayFog:


Assuming that cold pool is being fed by increased melting from the Greenland icecap, it seems more likely that it will persist if not enlarge.


I'm thinking that the warmth from the W Atlantic will get injected into the cool pool from the Gulfstream
Quoting 83. Gearsts:




Well...?
Quoting 72. Grothar:



I'm still here. I figure I'll stay around on the blog for another 100 years or so and then move on.


I certainly hope that you will be here for at least another 100 years. Do you plan to wait that long before you check your WU mail again? You are behind. :)
Answering a question someone asked very early last winter.

How much irrigation is needed to keep an alfalfa field alive without harvest, through a drought season?

I finally remembered to ask while buying hay today. Abe's nephew didn't know how Abe handled it, but said his dad managed it by giving the "barely hanging on until next year" fields one and a half irrigations - roughly, that's two irrigation floodings, totalling 1.5 acre feet of water (for each acre, soak the field in one foot of water.)

Most likely it worked out to less than that, when you factor in evaporation and "priming" (where the ditches are wetted by the water flow. And no this isn't wasted; this allows ditchside growth to feed wildlife and bees, and recharges the ground water so our wells keep working.)

Incidentally, nephew relayed that our allotment has been bumped from 70% to 100%. The first percentage was calculated before the last two storms.
Quoting 76. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Been a long while since I have seen sar.......hope he is well.


He might be fine, I've been less active lately do to academic uptick in busyness, and making summer plans.
Quoting 53. Bucsboltsfan:

Chamber of Commerce weather here in Central Florida and it is going to get even nicer this weekend. Unfortunately our long hot/humid summer is right around the corner.


The longer I live in Florida, the easier I find it to adjust to the summer, Florida isn't the worst place for heat in the U.S., I would argue the whole deep south, and especially Texas is worse.

You get the same nasty dew points and solar severity, but no sea breeze, less rain, and much hotter actual high temps than a Florida summer.

I spend most of the summer in the Tampa Bay area, so I don't have much experience with Tallahassee summers, but I do arrive here in late summer, and the heat is notably worse. Every summer I've returned, there has been long stretches of highs in the upper 90's and even low 100's at times, with very high dew points. We aren't even that far from the ocean either, but it's notable hotter than the Tampa Bay area. It only gets worse as you head north.

I will never forget doing a youth summer camp in Central Georgia in early August, no wind, no rain, just horrible stifling heat and high dew points. Even the nights were nasty hot. I got heat rash from endless sweating, most of the kids did too. Bear in mind I've always been fit and athletic, it was that much harder on some of the kids less fortunate.
Quoting 47. barbamz:

Climate data since Vikings cast doubt on more wet, dry extremes
Source: Reuters - Wed, 6 Apr 2016 17:00 GMT
OSLO, April 6 (Reuters) - Climate records back to Viking times show the 20th century was unexceptional for rainfall and droughts despite assumptions that global warming would trigger more wet and dry extremes, a study showed on Wednesday.
Stretching back 1,200 years, written accounts of climate and data from tree rings, ice cores and marine sediments in the northern hemisphere indicated that variations in the extremes in the 20th century were less than in some past centuries.
"Several other centuries show stronger and more widespread extremes," lead author Fredrik Ljungqvist of Stockholm University told Reuters of findings published in the journal Nature. "We can't say it's more extreme now."...
Ljungqvist said the findings did not mean current climate change, blamed on rising man-made greenhouse gas emissions, was less of a threat than thought. ...
"This paper adds to the growing evidence that the simple paradigm of 'wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier' under a warming climate does not apply over land areas," said Ted Shepherd, a professor at the University of Reading. ...

Whole article see link above.



Yep, man caused warming is not debatable, but what this warming will mean for many places in the world is difficult to say. Sea level rise is really one of the few certainties for now. It's simply very difficult to link a storm system, a violent hurricane or an amplified trough, to a change in climate.
Quoting 94. Jedkins01:



Yep, man caused warming is not debatable, but what this warming will mean for many places in the world is difficult to say. Sea level rise is really one of the few certainties for now. It's simply very difficult to link a storm system, a violent hurricane or an amplified trough, to a change in climate.


There's an important caveat to that study: tree rings and corals, by their nature, fail to capture extremes of weather that only last a few days to weeks. They give an average for the entire growing season, so they will, by definition, 'smooth out' and fail to record many extreme weather events. As a result, this study certainly doesn't support some of the headlines & spin that have been placed on it - that climate models exaggerate the chances of weather extremes.
Quoting 96. Bern99:



There's an important caveat to that study: tree rings and corals, by their nature, fail to capture extremes of weather that only last a few days to weeks. They give an average for the entire growing season, so they will, by definition, 'smooth out' and fail to record many extreme weather events. As a result, this study certainly doesn't support some of the headlines & spin that have been placed on it - that climate models exaggerate the chances of weather extremes.


He's not saying they're exaggerating weather extremes. He's saying that we don't have any real idea (outside of temperature extremes) of what's become more common since humans started contributing to warming. Which is true regardless of whether his interpretation of the study was fallacious.
How come when I click on the link for a new blog it pops up the warning about leaving the WUnderground site even though I'm not? Does that happen to anybody else?
Fiji in 'extreme circumstance' following life-destroying floods and cyclones

"This is a population in an extreme circumstance," Maidaborn said.

"We're beyond even talking about a hundred-year event.

"This is a totally historical catastrophe."


Link

Quoting 98. riverat544:

How come when I click on the link for a new blog it pops up the warning about leaving the WUnderground site even though I'm not? Does that happen to anybody else?
works for me...
91.4 at my place today and looks like tomorrow will be the same. 98 @KRAL and 94 @Indian Hills PWS. Good Night Fellow WU'ers
Monterey buoy hit 60 F today. Water temps rose above seasonal norms as far north as about SF. High and middle clouds have moved in from the south. Feels almost tropical this evening around the Bay.
Good evening, everyone

I've not been online much but have been following the blog when I get a chance. I, along with a lot of you, have been really concerned with the missing Sar.

Because I have the infamous mango jam and bread, it actually enticed Sar enough to send me his name and address in hopes that I would send him some. (the drought happened and I never did send them) I have tried to reach him on his email, landline and snail mail, to no avail. The one positive thing is that there is no obit on him!

If anyone else has any suggestions as to how I can contact him, let me know. Would be more than willing to help.

Lindy

104. vis0
As opposed to a Nor'Easter  is S. California getting a Sur'nester (LOW from the south (sur) of CA heads N/NNW of Baja and builds a nest)
Heads up Tampa Bay area friends, this is a bit of a surprise, radar data shows two couplets in the warned zone, a 3rd weaker one nearby, and another just offshore:

TORNADO WARNING
FLC101-071015-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0022.160407T0947Z-160407T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
547 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 615 AM EDT

* AT 546 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF HUDSON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
NEW PORT RICHEY...HUDSON...NEW PORT RICHEY EAST AND BEACON SQUARE
AROUND 600 AM EDT.
JASMINE ESTATES AROUND 605 AM EDT.
KEYSTONE AROUND 610 AM EDT.
LAND O` LAKES AROUND 615 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
BAYONET POINT...ODESSA...ELFERS...TRINITY...MOON LAKE...JAY B STARKEY
WILDERNESS PARK...GOWERS CORNER AND SHADY HILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE
HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 2824 8275 2826 8275 2829 8272 2831 8274
2835 8271 2832 8245 2821 8248 2817 8252
2817 8267 2822 8276 2823 8275 2824 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0946Z 289DEG 30KT 2832 8283

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

AUSTIN

Quoting 75. justmehouston:
responded ...wish they would fix the alert as I dont like to interrupt the blog alterting people about mail.

WU-mail alert isn't working??? Thanks for the heads-up! *Checking mail box* - umm, some letters to answer ... but none from Sar ...


Current (saved) portrait of the "dustinator" in the northern Sahara/Mediterranean (see post #51); Source. Guess a lot of pics of dirty cars and "blood snow" in the mountains will be available tonight ...


Fresh shot from Terra/Modis of the huge sand storm in Libya and the advected Saharan dust over the Mediterranean. Source.


Updating webcam in currently dusty Gallipoli / Southern Italy.

Splendid blue sky in my town Mainz today, though ... Have a nice day too, folks.
Possible tornado damage reported in Pasco County, another warning up for a cell moving into Clearwater Beach, there has been a surprising amount of rotation and severity given only a 40 kt low level jet, and only shallow/weak moisture advection.

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
FLC103-071100-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0023.160407T1041Z-160407T1100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
641 AM EDT THU APR 7 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 700 AM EDT

* AT 640 AM EDT...A LIKELY WATERSPOUT WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
NEAR CLEARWATER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT MOVING ONSHORE.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CLEARWATER AROUND 645 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADO INCLUDE SAFETY HARBOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE
HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 2803 8279 2804 8270 2796 8270 2796 8272
2795 8273 2798 8283 2801 8282 2799 8282
2799 8279
TIME...MOT...LOC 1040Z 273DEG 25KT 2800 8280

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$


very windy here Jed...so far so good here ok
NEW PORT RICHEY --

An early morning thunderstorm that moved onshore and went across Pasco County produced a possible tornado that caused damage to multiple homes.

According to Doug Tobin with Pasco County, the strong showers knocked down a large tree at a home in the 7200 block of Parrot Drive in New Port Richey.

On Drexel Drive, part of a roof was ripped from a home as power lines were downed by heavy winds.

Also, Edwin Gonazlez in New Port Richey reported seeing a water spout that went over his home near Ridge Road and Fox Hollow Road that destroyed part of his fence.

About 2,000 Duke Energy customers lost power. Pasco Fire Rescue is assessing the damage, Tobin said.

The heavy rain and strong winds moved east at about 30 mph, swinging through southern Pasco and northern Pinellas and Hillsborough counties.

Damage and debris were also reported in multiple roads in the New Port Richey area.
Good Morning Folks; the forecast for Conus today and current look:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EDT Thu Apr 07 2016

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 07 2016 - 12Z Sat Apr 09 2016

...Heavy rain possible for much of New England, with high winds possible
for coastal Maine...

...Another round of cold temperatures headed for the eastern half of the
U.S...

...Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the southwestern U.S.
today into Friday...

not all Fiji colarado bob has been damaged. its localized.
I got caught in the storm on Gandy bridge this morning. I could not tell if there was a tornado because the wind and rain shielded my vision. Nothing quite like coming over the hump of the bridge and being met by a wall of rain and wind...
Surprised at the tornado warning in Florida this morning considering the lack of a convective outlook note but it goes to show, based on the current position of the jet from the Gulf moving over Florida, that a stronger-higher t-storm cell was able to rise up into the jet (towards the 300 mb level) and spin off some rotation in the cloud deck dropping down into the lower levels.

It looks like an isolated "streak" across that part of Florida this morning; will be interesting to see if it tries to spin up any isolated tornadoes in the stronger cells that might develop in that sheer and jet driven training band for lack of a better word:



And finally the big doppler picture for the US, highs for today, and new drought map for the week; very active weather in the NE today and some rain slowly creeping towards South California that still needs plenty:

Current U.S. Drought Monitor
Doppler Radar National Mosaic LoopGraphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
Quoting 108. LargoFl:

very windy here Jed...so far so good here ok


I drove through the storm heading south on US19 in Clearwater at 7:15. The rain was coming down sideways. Then I got a tornado warning on my phone. There is damage along McMullen Booth north of the Bayside Bridge. These storms really over achieved today. Quite surprised to see them strengthen as they came on shore.
Quoting 103. LindyVirginIslander:

Good evening, everyone

I've not been online much but have been following the blog when I get a chance. I, along with a lot of you, have been really concerned with the missing Sar.

Because I have the infamous mango jam and bread, it actually enticed Sar enough to send me his name and address in hopes that I would send him some. (the drought happened and I never did send them) I have tried to reach him on his email, landline and snail mail, to no avail. The one positive thing is that there is no obit on him!

If anyone else has any suggestions as to how I can contact him, let me know. Would be more than willing to help.

Lindy




Please let us know if you can somehow get a hold of him. Hopefully everything is okay. Thanks Lindy
Quoting 93. Jedkins01:



The longer I live in Florida, the easier I find it to adjust to the summer, Florida isn't the worst place for heat in the U.S., I would argue the whole deep south, and especially Texas is worse.

You get the same nasty dew points and solar severity, but no sea breeze, less rain, and much hotter actual high temps than a Florida summer.

I spend most of the summer in the Tampa Bay area, so I don't have much experience with Tallahassee summers, but I do arrive here in late summer, and the heat is notably worse. Every summer I've returned, there has been long stretches of highs in the upper 90's and even low 100's at times, with very high dew points. We aren't even that far from the ocean either, but it's notable hotter than the Tampa Bay area. It only gets worse as you head north.

I will never forget doing a youth summer camp in Central Georgia in early August, no wind, no rain, just horrible stifling heat and high dew points. Even the nights were nasty hot. I got heat rash from endless sweating, most of the kids did too. Bear in mind I've always been fit and athletic, it was that much harder on some of the kids less fortunate.


I did spend two summers in Tallahassee. Haven't summered in the Peninsula but I suspect Tallahassee is worse in summer. It is much worse than the Mid Atlantic which gets breaks. Tomato plants survive until late summer and a second planting in early July produces until frost in October/November. Corn succession planted also produces all summer.

in Tallahassee I could not get tomatoes or corn after late July. New plants just didn't thrive in that heat and by the time autumn cooling finally started, the days were too short for them to grow well. The combination of short days and continuing heat is rough on plants.
121. MahFL
I am in the abnormally dry part :

122. NNYer
Quoting 98. riverat544:

How come when I click on the link for a new blog it pops up the warning about leaving the WUnderground site even though I'm not? Does that happen to anybody else?


You might have a browser hijack. I would recommend running malwarebytes and ccleaner to check for malware on your computer.
Quoting 122. NNYer:



You might have a browser hijack. I would recommend running malwarebytes and ccleaner to check for malware on your computer.

Not a hijack. Save your time. It is happening to me too.
124. bwi
Cool looking s-shaped storm coming through DC now
Quoting 103. LindyVirginIslander:

Good evening, everyone



I've not been online much but have been following the blog when I get a chance. I, along with a lot of you, have been really concerned with the missing Sar.

Because I have the infamous mango jam and bread, it actually enticed Sar enough to send me his name and address in hopes that I would send him some. (the drought happened and I never did send them) I have tried to reach him on his email, landline and snail mail, to no avail. The one positive thing is that there is no obit on him!

If anyone else has any suggestions as to how I can contact him, let me know. Would be more than willing to help.

Lindy


I know he was quite active on ham radio. Would anyone know his call sign? I have single side band on my boat and could make an attempt...
Quoting 123. ChiThom:


Not a hijack. Save your time. It is happening to me too.
Somebody explained some time back when it first came up, that it is due to the use of "https" (for added security) in place of "http". It is just a way to prevent hijacking. Not difficult to do, either, just follow the link.
Quoting 121. MahFL:

I am in the abnormally dry part :




You will not be that way for long.
Here in SC I find similar results. I do have great luck with bell peppers late summer through first freeze. And butternut squash, but cannot grow them because of the infestation of squash bugs (hundreds laying eggs under every leaf)

Even if I do get late season tomatoes, the taste is not there.

Quoting 120. georgevandenberghe:



I did spend two summers in Tallahassee. Haven't summered in the Peninsula but I suspect Tallahassee is worse in summer. It is much worse than the Mid Atlantic which gets breaks. Tomato plants survive until late summer and a second planting in early July produces until frost in October/November. Corn succession planted also produces all summer.

in Tallahassee I could not get tomatoes or corn after late July. New plants just didn't thrive in that heat and by the time autumn cooling finally started, the days were too short for them to grow well. The combination of short days and continuing heat is rough on plants.
Quoting 98. riverat544:

How come when I click on the link for a new blog it pops up the warning about leaving the WUnderground site even though I'm not? Does that happen to anybody else?
It's nothing nefarious. When a hyperlink is included in a comment, WU's behind-the-scenes code has for years wrapped it in a short bit of javascript. When a user clicks that link, that piece of javascript runs, warning the user that s/he is about to open a new page and go somewhere else. (WU's developers could remove that link wrapper from internal links--that is, those pointing back at WU--but they've elected not to.)
I grew up in South Florida, have traveled the State my entire life for vacations and to visit friends, and have lived in Tallahassee for the last 16 years. Coastal breezes (whether in the Keys, on the East Coast, or on the West Coast/Coastal Panhandle) can help mitigate some of the blistering heat and humidity come July and August.

With that being said, the hottest places I have experienced in Florida have been inland in the Summer in Central Florida and here in Tallahassee (and the upper Big Bend/Panhandle) with blistering and dry/parched afternoon highs in the 90's; I actually preferred the the hot, and humid, Summers in South Florida where you could get under some shade and enjoy a little cooler sea breeze, or rain cooled temps, after the afternoon t-storms. Here in Tallahassee and Southern Georgia, there is no escaping the dry/parched summer heat unless you drive down to the coast.
Adding the s to the https addy only allows for one more click thru the outside prompt.

It has to be IBM's Idea as they also added it to the radar link too.

If your going to post a wu radar here, u have to remove the s from the https addy as well.


Bon Appetite'


Quoting 71. MaxWeather:

Hurricane scorecard 2016 still going
Heads up!


Hello MaxWeather-

Put me down for 14-7-4 the 2016 season

Thanks.
This could be fun.







www.co2.earth

Atmospheric CO2

March 2016

404.83
parts per million (ppm)


Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (NOAA)

Preliminary data released April 5, 2016
Quoting 103. LindyVirginIslander:

Good evening, everyone

I've not been online much but have been following the blog when I get a chance. I, along with a lot of you, have been really concerned with the missing Sar.

Because I have the infamous mango jam and bread, it actually enticed Sar enough to send me his name and address in hopes that I would send him some. (the drought happened and I never did send them) I have tried to reach him on his email, landline and snail mail, to no avail. The one positive thing is that there is no obit on him!

If anyone else has any suggestions as to how I can contact him, let me know. Would be more than willing to help.

Lindy




If Sar's not answering anything that would indicate he's okay and his gf isn't either then that's not good. No obit, that's good. To hear Sar tell it, even Elvis would be showing up at his funeral. My concern is that he's likely hospitalized, but even that wouldn't explain his no response to any form of contact. This happened the day after tornadoes moved through his neck of the woods in Bama. There were injuries, not sure about fatalities. He wasn't on again afterwards. Maybe start there. You've done some great leg work! Thank you, hope he's okay.
I have some wu friends not far from His location and I will contact them with the addy I have.
Sar will pop up I do believe.

Sometimes, time away from here is a good thing.

I took a break from here after Isaac in Sept 2012 - to May of 2013 as Isaac & Sandy was a project in itself for Portlight post storms.

WU forecast at my place last night @22:50 was for 94F today and when I got up this morning that forecast was dropped down to 73, which is probably what it should have been last night, too Funny. No Rain Yet...

However, when it comes to the Spring and Fall, no place I would rather be than in North Florida......................
Human Carbon Release Rate is Greater than Any Other Event Since the Extinction of the Dinosaurs -- By Ten Times
Wednesday, April 6, 2016

While the idea that human-generated carbon emissions are nothing new, and the impact of greenhouse gasses on global warming have been evident for quite some time, there has been a great deal of debate over exactly how much humans have been contributing to the issue, as opposed to the natural portion of the warming cycle that the planet has been undergoing since the start of the Holocene era. But now a new study seems to have quantified our contribution -- and it isn't insignificant.

Using chemical and biological signatures obtained from deep sea sediments, a research team from the University of Hawai'i at Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) has mapped carbon emissions going back 66 million years, when the dinosaurs went extinct. They found that the peak of carbon emissions over that time period occurred in 2014, when about 37 billion metric tons of CO2 was released. The only other time since the end of the Cretaceous period that could even come close to modern levels was an event that occurred 56 million years ago, called the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), where 4 billion metric tons of CO2 per year was dumped into the atmosphere -- a mere one-tenth of current levels.

This produced a quandary for the researchers, as they effectively had no other event to compare modern CO2 levels to: “Because our carbon release rate is unprecedented over such a long time period in Earth’s history, it also means that we have effectively entered a 'no-analogue' state. This represents a big challenge for projecting future climate changes because we have no good comparison from the past,” explains University of Hawai'i professor and study author Richard Zeebe.

In addition to our finding ourselves in uncharted territory, Zeebe also warns that such a sudden change in the atmosphere's makeup might make predicting what will happen nearly impossible: “If you kick a system very fast, it usually responds differently than if you nudge it slowly but steadily. Also, it is rather likely that future disruptions of ecosystems will exceed the relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM.”

Image Credit: The Influence of Human Activity on the Environment via Youtube.com

News Source: newswise.com
Could Zika become the 'public health equivalent of Katrina'?

Expert worries U.S. Zika outbreak could be "public health equivalent of Katrina"

More than 312 cases have been reported in 41 states, all of them linked to travel outside the U.S. But with mosquito season here, that could change -- and soon.

Tropical disease expert Dr. Peter Hotez has been warning for months that poor neighborhoods on the Gulf Coast are similar to poor neighborhoods in Brazil, the epicenter of the Zika pandemic.

Broken screens, lack of air conditioning, and standing water make for perfect breeding grounds for the Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that carry Zika.

Hotez is worried the U.S. is not prepared to fight the Zika virus, despite Wednesday's commitment of over $500 million.

"There's no such thing as a small outbreak of Zika," Hoetz warned.

"If you start seeing babies with microcephaly on the Gulf Coast of the United States, it is going to be a public health crisis. It will be the public health equivalent of Katrina."



The Aedes aegypti mosquito which transmits Zika is a recent arrival to the Americas, and is becoming more common in the US. It should spread northwards with climate change. Some researchers speculate that the microcephaly associated with maternal infection in pregnancy may be just the 'tip of the iceberg' that we can see, because it's a physical manifestation, and that neurological complications will only become evident in other infected infants later on. A very small number of infected adults go on to develop Guillain-Barre syndrome, which is similar to the various chronic fatigue illnesses.
141. MahFL
Quoting 138. weathermanwannabe:

However, when it comes to the Spring and Fall, no place I would rather be than in North Florida......................


September is brutal in North Florida, humidity is usually sky high.
142. MahFL
Quoting 140. yonzabam:

Could Zika become the 'public health equivalent of Katrina'?


How was Katrina a public health issue ?
People will need to be very proactive, and particularly in the Southern and Gulf Coast tier of the US, as to the Zika issues on the assumption that the mosquitoes will continue to migrate northward and maybe even find a sweet spot somewhere in the Southern US (not to mention Mexico and Central America/the Caribbean on the way up) due to climate change/warming issues.

I would advise all pregnant women (that I know or in my family) to stay covered when outdoors in mosquito prone areas, as a start, this coming Spring and Summer pending further studies, case confirmations (not from travel but from local bites) and further advice from the CDC and other government outlets.......................This is a huge pending issue.
Quoting 141. MahFL:



September is brutal in North Florida, humidity is usually sky high.


It has been that way the last few years; no real cooling this past winter until after October and even then we had many record heat days going into December.
Quoting 118. Bucsboltsfan:



I drove through the storm heading south on US19 in Clearwater at 7:15. The rain was coming down sideways. Then I got a tornado warning on my phone. There is damage along McMullen Booth north of the Bayside Bridge. These storms really over achieved today. Quite surprised to see them strengthen as they came on shore.
yes even NWS was surprised.
Quoting 142. MahFL:



How was Katrina a public health issue ?


Dead bodies floating in the streets comes to mind.
Quoting 142. MahFL:



How was Katrina a public health issue ?


WARNING, GRAPHIC IMAGES OF THE DEAD









Oil & Floodwater



The Google images page for my comment -

Link
Most of this first wave is offshore, but a few places are getting Puny results. Best chance is Saturday for decent totals.

150. MahFL
Quoting 146. RobertWC:



Dead bodies floating in the streets comes to mind.


But that's not the same as mosquito born disease, the dead bodies were temporary.
The analogy made by the reporter is stupid.
Quoting 142. MahFL:



How was Katrina a public health issue ?

I think that you've misinterpreted the analogy.
Wikipedia to the rescue:

[Zika] can also be spread by the Aedes albopictus ("Asian tiger") mosquito, which has become widespread as far north as the Great Lakes region in North America."
Quoting 152. bappit:

Wikipedia to the rescue:

[Zika] can also be spread by the Aedes albopictus ("Asian tiger") mosquito, which has become widespread as far north as the Great Lakes region in North America."


Albopictus feeds on many animal species, and humans aren't its preferred meal, so it's much less likely to spread Zika than aegypti, which lives near humans and feeds mainly on human blood. This distribution map is interesting, but possibly misleading, as both species are much less common further north.

When did living in a city that's below sea level on the Gulf Coast in an area known for strong tropical cyclones become a good idea?
For how many years did scientists and meteorologists warn people of what would likely happen when a strong tropical cyclone made a direct hit on that area?
156. vis0
zip 10016 OBS:: Short clap of thunder 45secs ago, did not rumble sounded like a flatbed truck full of heavy tools (jackhammers, taz not screwdrivers) goes over a pothole
Gearsts what does ur post mean on post 155?
Quoting 154. Sfloridacat5:

When did living in a city that's below sea level on the Gulf Coast in an area known for strong tropical cyclones become a good idea?
For how many years did scientists and meteorologists warn people of what would likely happen when a strong tropical cyclone made a direct hit on that area?
I have found many interviews on the internet/T.V where people would literally see the ships sailing by over there heads and popped the questions of "What if's" and "Is this a good idea?" even before Katrina occured.Where New Orleans is,was a area that was never meant to be developed.it was a swamp and apart of the wet land hence the constant flooding and would have likely been apart of the gulf of Mexico by now if it weren't for those Levees.It wasn't a good idea from the start and it took a huge tragedy to show that.Yes man's engineering is impressive to say the least but one day nature will win out.
159. OKsky
Quoting 154. Sfloridacat5:

When did living in a city that's below sea level on the Gulf Coast in an area known for strong tropical cyclones become a good idea?
For how many years did scientists and meteorologists warn people of what would likely happen when a strong tropical cyclone made a direct hit on that area?


Good point, its almost like living in south florida at sea level when its known that the levels are rising (not to mention the possible cat 5's). Or like most of my family living in Moore, OK which seems to get wiped off the map every 5 years or so. We should all just move to Ohio. =P
Quoting 157. FirstCoastMan:

Gearsts what does ur post mean on post 155?
Atlantic not looking too bad for decent hurricane season.
Models have the cold ring upwelling later in the year killing the Cape-Verde season.

The cold water in the Natlantic moves south towards the MDR.
Just a matter of time before the RFP comes out to build a massive dike around Miami. It's the next New Orleans...
My forecast for the hurricane season is 9-4-1. I didn't like the way Max ran the contest last year. When I posted my guess on his blog he entered the wrong numbers under my handle in his graphic. I posted on his blog twice for him to change his mistake and he ignored it.

I don't think anyplace in FL can be saved. Isn't limestone porous? Even if they built dikes water would just come up through the ground.
164. OKsky
Quoting 163. weathergirl2001:

My forecast for the hurricane season is 9-4-1.

I don't think anyplace in FL can be saved. Isn't limestone porous? Even if they built dikes water would just come up through the ground.


I have a dumb newb question. I keep seeing people post their hurricane forecasts in the form of "x-x-x".
I was curious what that meant and found this page, but it didn't explicitly give me an answer.
Does "x-x-x" mean "#_of_named_storms"-"#_of_hurricanes"-"#of_major_h urricanes"?
Don't forget to send your numbers for 2016 hurricane prediction to Max' blog directly, folks. He said he can't scan Dr. Masters blog all the time to get your posts.

Maxweather's blog:
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/MaxWeather/new- 2016-hurricane-scorecard
Quoting 164. OKsky:



I have a dumb newb question. I keep seeing people post their hurricane forecasts in the form of "x-x-x".
I was curious what that meant and found this page, but it didn't explicitly give me an answer.
Does "x-x-x" mean "#_of_named_storms"-"#_of_hurricanes"-"#of_major_h urricanes"?

Exactly. My hunch is:
14 named storm - of which 8 are hurricanes - of which 3 are majors, so 14-8-3 :-)
Quoting 130. weathermanwannabe:

I grew up in South Florida, have traveled the State my entire life for vacations and to visit friends, and have lived in Tallahassee for the last 16 years. Coastal breezes (whether in the Keys, on the East Coast, or on the West Coast/Coastal Panhandle) can help mitigate some of the blistering heat and humidity come July and August.

With that being said, the hottest places I have experienced in Florida have been inland in the Summer in Central Florida and here in Tallahassee (and the upper Big Bend/Panhandle) with blistering and dry/parched afternoon highs in the 90's; I actually preferred the the hot, and humid, Summers in South Florida where you could get under some shade and enjoy a little cooler sea breeze, or rain cooled temps, after the afternoon t-storms. Here in Tallahassee and Southern Georgia, there is no escaping the dry/parched summer heat unless you drive down to the coast.
You guys have to remember if Florida didn't have the gulf and the ocean it would likely be just like the western parts of mexico a desert. It's right in the horse latitudes no trade winds or westerlies so it would be more like phoenix and not like it is now.
168. OKsky
Quoting 165. barbamz:

Don't forget to send your numbers for 2016 hurricane prediction to Max' blog directly, folks. He said he can't scan Dr. Masters blog all the time to get your posts.

Maxweather's blog:
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/MaxWeather/new- 2016-hurricane-scorecard


lol, well.. that answered my previous question. thanks! :D
I was wondering if anyone here has any theories on how the "cold blob" in Northern Atlantic could affect the summer of Northern Europe. Like will it affect the paths of the low pressures or is the anomaly significant enough?
There was a New Orleans way before there was a United States.

September 2,2005

New Orleans a Geo-Political Prize

By George Friedman

New Orleans is not optional for the United States' commercial infrastructure. It is a terrible place for a city to be located, but exactly the place where a city must exist. With that as a given, a city will return there because the alternatives are too devastating. The harvest is coming, and that means that the port will have to be opened soon. As in Iraq, premiums will be paid to people prepared to endure the hardships of working in New Orleans. But in the end, the city will return because it has to.

Geopolitics is the stuff of permanent geographical realities and the way they interact with political life. Geopolitics created New Orleans. Geopolitics caused American presidents to obsess over its safety. And geopolitics will force the city's resurrection, even if it is in the worst imaginable place.





Went out to work in the yard. Well, that just made it start to sprinkle. Not much of a Rain Dance, more of a sprinkle dance....
172. vis0
zp 1016:: 1min ago began getting ice pellets at 15 per 3 sec rates, winds (gusts to 20mph) escorting them more against my SSW window than my ESE window. after 2 mins.  its quieted down to 3 pellets per 15 secs but winds still gusts now and then...ice pellets have stopped.
Almost seems like the sun is trying to break through (will that create more? instability?) stay tuned to WxU or look out the window if you're in my area.
Quoting 170. Patrap:

There was a New Orleans way before there was a United States.

September 2,2005

New Orleans a Geo-Political Prize

By George Friedman

New Orleans is not optional for the United States' commercial infrastructure. It is a terrible place for a city to be located, but exactly the place where a city must exist. With that as a given, a city will return there because the alternatives are too devastating. The harvest is coming, and that means that the port will have to be opened soon. As in Iraq, premiums will be paid to people prepared to endure the hardships of working in New Orleans. But in the end, the city will return because it has to.

Geopolitics is the stuff of permanent geographical realities and the way they interact with political life. Geopolitics created New Orleans. Geopolitics caused American presidents to obsess over its safety. And geopolitics will force the city's resurrection, even if it is in the worst imaginable place.




I wonder if anyone has, or could, document how much New Orleans has settled (as in gone to a lower elevation) since the city was founded? Because the delta sinks steadily as the soil brought in by the river compacts, it must have been a lot higher 250 years ago there than now, since when the city was established the river was told to get out, and consequently the deliveries of mud that kept the delta from becoming lower have been terminated, but the sinking has not. It's inevitable that New Orleans will have to be abandoned -- it isn't possible to engineer enough secure levees to keep it dry as it goes down and the sea goes up.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1h1 hour ago
Top 5 objective analogs for NMME summer forecast: 1988, 1970, 2013, 1973, 1954. The resulting TC frequency anomaly:
175. vis0

Quoting 154. Sfloridacat5:

When did living in a city that's below sea level on the Gulf Coast in an area known for strong tropical cyclones become a good idea?
For how many years did scientists and meteorologists warn people of what would likely happen when a strong tropical cyclone made a direct hit on that area?
i figure it began when areas overpriced certain lands and hard working people could not afford those lands so they went where their check took them.
Add to that that those low lying lands was a gambling in buying but a 1 in 25 yr gamble (at most on the split avg. every 12.5 yrs) , add the fact that the globe is warming and that gamble is now a 1 in 15 year gamble (means it can happen every 7.5 yrs).
Them some newsites made their viewers think "what GW?" and i bet those stations will not pay (oh just 15%) for the damages "indirectly" caused damages by the globe warming.

Have a comment to post as to this real soon its a bit long will post here or on the new blogbyte if one pops up before 4pm EDT)
Here in zip 10016 sun pops out yet i'm getting 20 to 25 mph gusts, qyasi-Tundra effect?.

Quoting 162. SkiDestructor:

Just a matter of time before the RFP comes out to build a massive dike around Miami. It's the next New Orleans...
A dike won't work in Miami. The issue is that porous limestone underlies the region and no levee will prevent the infiltration of sea water.

Quoting 170. Patrap:

There was a New Orleans way before there was a United States.

September 2,2005

New Orleans a Geo-Political Prize

By George Friedman

New Orleans is not optional for the United States' commercial infrastructure. It is a terrible place for a city to be located, but exactly the place where a city must exist....

Pat,

I keep an eye on the Old River Works whenever there's real high water in the lower Mississippi River. That is the Achilles heel of the commercial river. Back in the 1950s Congress mandated that 70% of the flow of the river would come down the main stem of the river past New Orleans and 30% would be allowed to go the shorter route to the Gulf, i.e. down the Atchafalaya basin. Had Congress not enforced the will of man on the river, New Orleans today would be a tidal estuary and a backwater. The river would have relocated just as it has done dozens of times over the last few thousand years.

I'm sure you are familiar with the John McPhee write-up on this, but others might find this article fascinating and informative:

"Atchafalaya" by John McPhee






Vivid airmass display of Atlantic and European weather right now: to the left one huge extratropical cyclone with its center at the southern tip of Greenland (976mb) which will move southeast the next two days; to the right Her Saharan Dustiness, Isabel (named in Italy) - and me somewhere in between in the cold (red) trough, lol.

Promised you dusty Italian cars this morning. Well, here is one (published by Severe Weather Europe). Photo by Alfie Sulper from Valetta/Malta this morning:


Quoting 173. CaneFreeCR:

I wonder if anyone has, or could, document how much New Orleans has settled (as in gone to a lower elevation) since the city was founded? Because the delta sinks steadily as the soil brought in by the river compacts, it must have been a lot higher 250 years ago there than now, since when the city was established the river was told to get out, and consequently the deliveries of mud that kept the delta from becoming lower have been terminated, but the sinking has not. It's inevitable that New Orleans will have to be abandoned -- it isn't possible to engineer enough secure levees to keep it dry as it goes down and the sea goes up.
The Army Corps of Engineers as well as the local newspaper the Times-Picayune have the sort of information you seek. I did some research in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and came up with fact that in the century previous to Katrina, vulnerable areas of the city such as the lower 9th Ward had sunk by about 3 feet, while sea level had risen by several inches.

Surprisingly enough to me, New Orleans is not listed as being among America's most threatened cities when it comes to sea level rise. Miami, New York City and Venice Beach in L.A. will all succumb along their edges before New Orleans levees become impossible to maintain.
Not sure whether this has already been posted:

Miami Beach's Tidal Flooding Has Jumped by 400 Percent in the Past Decade
Wednesday, April 6, 2016 at 9:30 a.m
... Miami Beach's flooding is definitely unprecedented, and it's happening at a shockingly more frequent rate. That's the conclusion of a team of University of Miami scientists that used a wealth of data from everything from tidal records and rain gauges to insurance claims to look at how often Miami Beach's streets have ended up underwater. They found that since 2006, rain-based floods have increased by 33 percent and tidal flooding by an astounding 400 percent. ...

Link to the abstract of the study which will be published in June:
Increasing flooding hazard in coastal communities due to rising sea level: Case study of Miami Beach, Florida
Quoting 180. rayduray2013:

Ars Technica has an interesting weather forecasting story available at their website:

HEADLINE: TV Maker Panasonic says it has developed the world's best weather model. The company says it has beaten the GFS for a while and now equals the ECMWF.

Very interesting! Thanks for posting!

From this article:
Panasonic traces its advantage to the use of weather information collected by airplanes. Back in the 1990s, during the Clinton administration, the US government asked airlines to gather in-situ weather information to prevent icing and other potentially dangerous conditions in flight. The first of these TAMDAR systems was deployed on regional airlines more than a decade ago by a company called AirDat. Panasonic Avionics acquired AirDat in 2013 and created its weather solutions unit.
AirDat and now Panasonic have continued to deploy these TAMDAR sensors on airplanes flying mostly regional routes over the continental United States and, more recently, Europe and parts of Asia. As the planes take off and land, they collect all sorts of useful data for forecast models, creating a vertical profile with wind, temperature, humidity, pressure, and other information. Historically, this kind of detailed data was only available from "soundings" captured by balloons sent twice daily into the atmosphere from various locations.
Panasonic now gathers about 3,500 of these soundings per day, and the number is growing as it adds more planes at a rate of two to three per week, Jacobs said. The original business plan was to sell this weather data to the major government meteorological centers, and Panasonic does that. But it found that by keeping some of the highest resolution data to itself, it could create a global forecast model that competed with the big boys.
173. CaneFreeCR

There is plenty of Studies on that, in pdf form as well thru google scholar.

One thing many fail to realize is that the Original city founded by 2 Brothers Iberville and Bienville, was the French Quarter behind the Square.

There has never been a flood or Hurricane to put water in Jackson Square, nor the Cathedral or the Quarter.

Ever.


The Local Indians here then advised the brothers to build the City here on the Highest flood plain then and today.


Where I live at the S Shore of the Lake Nwest of the City, The Lake level to my N by 1.5 miles is 8ft high from the street level now. We have a 20 Ft. Levee that Katrina almost topped,with the 17ft Surge that was observed here.

We live on Bonnabel above Veterans Blvd...on the map below.



The Breach was on the NOLA side to the East or left of image.

I'm located 1.5 miles to the west of the 17th St. Canal..or the Jefferson Parish side, or the right side of the Image here.



Grim business indeed.

The 2016 body count from heat has gotten of to an early start -

Heat wave claims 111 lives in Telangana, Andhra

Link
Quoting 162. SkiDestructor:

Just a matter of time before the RFP comes out to build a massive dike around Miami. It's the next New Orleans...


The whole of South Florida is a giant sinkhole waiting to happen.
If Zika ever makes a strong foothold in the Florida Keys/Everglades/extreme South Florida in the shorter term, tourism and real estate investments are going to take a big hit down there way before the issues related to sea level rise and salt water intrusion affecting the fresh water aquifer (the limestone issue) also starts to take them down over the next several decades. Point being that my wife and I are going to liquidate the family properties down in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale (on both sides) over the next few years rather than hang on to them and lose money when the bottom falls out.
Quoting 181. barbamz:

Not sure whether this has already been posted:

Miami Beach's Tidal Flooding Has Jumped by 400 Percent in the Past Decade

A few years back I saw an article about Key West, they have a tide gauge that goes back to 1860.
The bars on their main drag now keep sand bags near the front doors , for when the tides seek up on them.
186. weathermanwannabe
7:45 PM GMT on April 07, 2016

Don't dawdle on the real estate issue, when the bottom falls out , it won't be a gentle glide down.
Quoting 177. rayduray2013:


Pat,

I keep an eye on the Old River Works whenever there's real high water in the lower Mississippi River. That is the Achilles heel of the commercial river. Back in the 1950s Congress mandated that 70% of the flow of the river would come down the main stem of the river past New Orleans and 30% would be allowed to go the shorter route to the Gulf, i.e. down the Atchafalaya basin. Had Congress not enforced the will of man on the river, New Orleans today would be a tidal estuary and a backwater. The river would have relocated just as it has done dozens of times over the last few thousand years.

I'm sure you are familiar with the John McPhee write-up on this, but others might find this article fascinating and informative:

"Atchafalaya" by John McPhee







Excellent point, there's a PBS show on this very topic, The Old River Control Structure. The Corps have nearly lost it 2 or 3 times. During one flood the whole thing was vibrating like an unbalanced washing machine. I'll see if I can find the link.
Quoting 177. rayduray2013:


Thanx for the link..
The Man Who Predicted Katrina

Posted 11.22.05
NOVA

"A slow-moving Category 3 hurricane or larger will flood the city. There will be between 17 and 20 feet of standing water, and New Orleans as we now know it will no longer exist."
—Ivor van Heerden, October 29, 2004


Link
Quoting 140. yonzabam:

Could Zika become the 'public health equivalent of Katrina'?

Expert worries U.S. Zika outbreak could be "public health equivalent of Katrina"

More than 312 cases have been reported in 41 states, all of them linked to travel outside the U.S. But with mosquito season here, that could change -- and soon.

Tropical disease expert Dr. Peter Hotez has been warning for months that poor neighborhoods on the Gulf Coast are similar to poor neighborhoods in Brazil, the epicenter of the Zika pandemic.

Broken screens, lack of air conditioning, and standing water make for perfect breeding grounds for the Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that carry Zika.

Hotez is worried the U.S. is not prepared to fight the Zika virus, despite Wednesday's commitment of over $500 million.

"There's no such thing as a small outbreak of Zika," Hoetz warned.

"If you start seeing babies with microcephaly on the Gulf Coast of the United States, it is going to be a public health crisis. It will be the public health equivalent of Katrina."



The Aedes aegypti mosquito which transmits Zika is a recent arrival to the Americas, and is becoming more common in the US. It should spread northwards with climate change. Some researchers speculate that the microcephaly associated with maternal infection in pregnancy may be just the 'tip of the iceberg' that we can see, because it's a physical manifestation, and that neurological complications will only become evident in other infected infants later on. A very small number of infected adults go on to develop Guillain-Barre syndrome, which is similar to the various chronic fatigue illnesses.


We have precedents in Yellow Fever epidemiology going back to the 18'th century. It was spread by the same mosquito which can multiply very rapidly in large parts of the U.S. in summer but cannot tolerate hard freezes.
Precednts aren't exact though. The Asian Tiger mosquito may also spread it and this species overwinters in much of the U.S.

America's Achilles' heel: the Mississippi River's Old River Control Structure

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:20 PM GMT on May 13, 2011

Link
Since we're discussion New Orleans at the moment, I thought I might toss in this sub-tropical tidbit. This is a link to a .pdf file entitled "Hurricane Katrina Timeline", which I edited/created in the autumn of 2005. It's a pretty substantial file, printing out at about 125 pages.

HURRICANE KATRINA TIMELINE
195. vis0
this is special (vis0 angry rarity) just posted a very large comment well done actually checked grammar i rarely do (no kidding) and where is it? posted it on this pg before 193 never showed up.
197. RayT
Hopefully you guys do get some rain. It sure looks like you need it.

Quoting 137. PedleyCA:

WU forecast at my place last night @22:50 was for 94F today and when I got up this morning that forecast was dropped down to 73, which is probably what it should have been last night, too Funny. No Rain Yet...


Everyone have a safe weather afternoon and evening. Lot's depressing news around weather wise when you consider the discussions today with regard to tragedies caused by weather events an pending issues related to climate change and the current Zika issue. Just have to keep on reminding myself than humankind is very resiliant and that we will survive, and hopefully thrive, in the future if we work together for the greater good as we face daunting challenges........................................ ....... :)



Dr. Ricky posted a hell of piece -

No Way to Slow Down: Silence Howling in Antarctica

I am nearing the end of the tenth time I have taught my climate change class. This year we focused on climate change science and the Paris Agreement. In particular, we thought about how climate science would contribute to the execution of the Paris Agreement. Towards the end of class, I do what I call a strategic summary and organize some resources to provide memory cues on how to think about climate change and our responses. At the end of that summary, I present my personal analysis. Here are the bullets.

* It will be difficult to avoid a world that is four degrees warmer.
* We have, in fact, underestimated the impacts of warming.
* We have some control over how fast and how far the warming will go.
* We are committed to irreversible changes, for example, sea-level rise.
* We can “cope” with this. We must. There is opportunity.


Link
198. weathermanwannabe



Shout -
Another piece of disturbing news....

Link
Quoting 194. rayduray2013:

Since we're discussion New Orleans at the moment, I thought I might toss in this sub-tropical tidbit. This is a link to a .pdf file entitled "Hurricane Katrina Timeline", which I edited/created in the autumn of 2005. It's a pretty substantial file, printing out at about 125 pages.

HURRICANE KATRINA TIMELINE



I'm taking a look at this, as the response to this disaster (or lack thereof) made me realize a few negative things about our government. One of the quotes within this document at first made me chuckle, then filled me with dread when I remembered who is running for president this election cycle:

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the WhiteHouse will be adorned by a downright moron."
-- H.L. Mencken (1880 -- 1956)
Quoting 161. Gearsts:

Models have the cold ring upwelling later in the year killing the Cape-Verde season.

The cold water in the Natlantic moves south towards the MDR.


I am more interested with the cool water in the Eastern Pacific. It looks to me like we see an neutral to slightly positive La Nina, and consequently, less shear in the Gulf and Caribbean. Given that logic and the fact that many models have those areas becoming warmer than average, I assume we will see a much more conducive environment for tropical storm development. However, I'm not so knowledgeable about mechanics that go in to a Hurricane forecast. I just don't think this year will be as bad for development as many people are expressing. This all looks to be a wait-and-see issue, as many meteorologists and pro-forecasters seem unsure.
Quoting 161. Gearsts:

Models have the cold ring upwelling later in the year killing the Cape-Verde season.

The cold water in the Natlantic moves south towards the MDR.





1985 HS can be a good analog in terms of activity regions, well,based on what the models are showing.
Quoting 204. stormchaser19:






1985 HS can be a good analog in terms of activity regions, well,based on what the models are showing.


2013 could also end up a fairly close analog to this season as well.
I just saw the word 'geoscientist' in an article. Is that what earth science degree holders are called now?
The cold spot has been there a very long time. If your models are right This means Greenland has stopped thawing.

Don't bet on it.
Quoting 191. RobertWC:

The Man Who Predicted Katrina

Posted 11.22.05
NOVA

"A slow-moving Category 3 hurricane or larger will flood the city. There will be between 17 and 20 feet of standing water, and New Orleans as we now know it will no longer exist."
—Ivor van Heerden, October 29, 2004


Link


Ivor sued LSU and won, as I had the opp to meet Him here in November 2009.

US-Cuba Conference
By: Patrap , 12:17 PM CST on November 24, 2009



Yesterday I was in attendance here in New Orleans for the US-Cuban Hurricane Conference.
It was a great day of sharing from folks who have been in many a fray, from General Russell Honore, to NHC Forecaster Lixion Avila, and many more..

Quoting 161. Gearsts:

Models have the cold ring upwelling later in the year killing the Cape-Verde season.

The cold water in the Natlantic moves south towards the MDR.


I strongly doubt that will happen
Quoting 204. stormchaser19:






1985 HS can be a good analog in terms of activity regions, well,based on what the models are showing.
Sorry, but -1.6 degrees water is going to kill the CV season. Please. Lower shear and SAL than last year may more than make up for the -1.6 degrees in one small area of the ocean.
212. vis0
Not formatted nor grammar checked as the one that was lost, too tired to do that. had a busy day)

Keep reading on certain sites that many of the general public visit and the site(s) state How can man control the weather?

Its not that man is directly controlling the weather/ climate, it's that the stuff man is putting into the atmosphere has to be spent to remove it, and the quickest manner in doing so takes nature hundreds of years.

The stuff man places into the atmosphere cannot be collected by a garbage truck and dumped in the poor / lower middle class neighborhoods like the "physical" garbage man throws out.

The atmospheric garbage has to go through chemical reactions then be spent by nature.

Since nature cannot get rid of that atmospheric garbage fast enough it builds up warmth in going through changes. Though not the same thing but a similar process you know of is compost as that heats up as it goes through chemical reactions.

That warmth then has to be used / taken in by whatever within this planet uses warmth as a fuel source. 

RESULT::

Here comes more weather extremes as more warmth can be used to produce more precipitation, more winds, more droughts ...
 
(more floods & droughts how? one might ask, as those are opposite type of weather / climate extreme scenarios.)
 

... The more storminess on either side causes a cut off of moving system, meaning extreme flooding more likely on ether side while in the middle is an extreme  drought that will remain till the long term static flow of the LOWs changes. OR extreme drought on either sides and extreme flooding in the middle.  At first the oceans stored heat tends to move upwards (evaporation) and the more constant that upward evaporation becomes the more it counteracts the weaker jet stream flow so areas become static in horizontal motions and more as to vertical motion as in raining for 3-4 days in a row over an area.  The pocket of hotter drier air stays over the areas also for 3 to 4 days. LOWS head northward or southward instead of mainly eastward or some westward therefore not much rain goes towards the drier areas east and west of the fronts. New LOW forms over that flooded area or a bit north or south and stays for 2 days. Still areas east and west remain dry. Repeat that for 45 days at a time and guess what happens. 

This causes extreme weather events one after another no time to correctly repair your homes.

You suffer flood damage, as you wait to have your home repaired  

(REMEMBER YOU ARE NOT the ONLY person whom will go through that 1-250/500 year flood, there are 500 (understatement) other neighbors are also waiting for repairs, some of those "other" might be relatives in your town or adjacent towns)

 
After 3 months the final repairs are done.

Here comes a 1 in 250/500 tornado outbreak.

Thankfully no one dies, some are hurt but the homes that where just repaired are in shambles.

For those not thinking that means hard earn money saved yet not used when it cost less to help lower the globe from warming not costs MANY FOLDS MORE and becomes one of the worst un-invested money in human history. probably the title for Mr Henson book on aGw, something like HUMANITY: its worst un investment (how 3 cents to the dollar became 3 dollars to the dollar.)

 
THINK if people paid a few cents on the dollar 30 years ago and the result was a strong laws WORLDWIDE leading to the globes warming not as fast t you would have better odds of avoiding 1 in 250/500 year storms.
 

Back to Unlucky Town - Anywhere, USofA.  

Now 5-8 months go by most of the new house foundations are done some homes fully rebuilt.

whats that there is a TS heading to that area.

"Luckily",  some news sources state  the TS skirts the area and "only" bought 2-4 inches of flooding to that "unlucky" town, but 6-12 inches just to the north as the TS surfed on some BO.


Now guess where that floodwater upstream is going to head towards, no not picked up by the biggest wetvac ever the size of Texas, but into that unlucky town - Anywhere, USofA.
 

Now what is wrong with my story?

a) Some might still say "there is no such thing as GW" (that song sung by skeptics & skeptic$ ended 25 yrs ago but some played it till ~15 years ago, though a few still try to sing it so people can through many into their hat as if a pan-handeler)

 

b) Version 2 of choice "a"; some say "There is no such thing as aGW".  (The B side of the "a-song" ended about 10 years ago but a few still singing it to get your hard earned dollars that would be better served earning interest for those rainy weeks.)

c) i did not include the amount of money families have to pay, then borrow at steep rates OVER & OVER...to break even in 25 yrs.


d) i did no include words to paint a picture of the many children crying 'cause they've lost their favorite toys , again and again (goodness forbid friends :-( ).  Older kids that understand are also upset as they lost compu'rs, images, website passwords, prom dress thing they were building their social persona on.
 
e) did no include words to paint a picture as to parents some single parents having to remain calm for the kids sake. Then having to do that again and again.
 
f) Did not post how tensions build up when its one local disaster, now its 2 or 3 and families argue even fight and that chaos goes into the workplace IF there still is a place to work at.
 
g) Did not include the family car(s), motorbikes, yes nativesun even boats that have been lost to damage TWICE, communities are going to have to build storm cellar parking garages that ONLY ACCEPT the cars of those that live there and can ONLY BE parked in those storm cellar garages NO LATER THAN 12 hours BEFORE storms enter the 48 hr to 24hr storm  watch areas. As cars to the general public are not a luxury items but a necessity items so tax dollars have to be collected to build those special garages otherwise its no car for a year and that means the economy suffers in that people do not drive around to shop after the roads are cleared.
 

h) Did not post how if this happens over 2 separate areas of the USofA how and whom gets priority as to the thinned out Red Cross/ PortLight help. Both will do their darnest to help but a human being can only be at one state at a time and odds are some of those helpers are busy working on their damaged homes...don't forget the thinning National Guard to protect your home from old style looting and new style looting. New style looting comes from the town a few miles away that also had a 1-250/500 year storms so they become desperate.
 

j) Churches are damaged more often will those with homes send more money to build the church after noticing that no magic money is coming to help rebuild there homes as past style good church going folk helping is also thinned out as the pastors/imams/rabbi of local churches/synagogue also have had their homes damaged a couple of times. Pray if you want to try and steer a storm onto your neighbors (that is what you're actually saying when i here some say let pray the storm turns away, away to where the moon? To get to the ocean, odds are it has to go over another town that has human beings also praying. Better in my mind is to pray that people wake up and join together to clean up the mess we've made of the gawd given planet (to some) or lucky chance Earth happened (to others) or some blend in between as in 2 arms of the matriarchal and patriarchal sciences aka  word of gawd aka science joined up and followed their rules (the laws)  of each area of science and ssssssssssssshaaaaaaaaaaaaaaazzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzza aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaam! created a planet that helped form this planet.. (EACH letter in shazam represents ~72 million years, as in creating Earth, give or take a few millions years but who is counting right GROTHAR.)

 
k) Did not include petty theft crimes which to some seems to affect only "those" other people till one gets a knock on the door that their kid stole some bread cause the kid as really hungry.
 

L) Did not include the odds that those growing up in affected areas tend ton become adults with "issues" in part since they feel picked on. a terrible cycle.
 

Just noticed this comment is way too long therefore not post M thought Alpha. Think i'm joking here just the topic for each sentence you figure out the negatives. Drought, insects, infrastructure, illness, harvest, transportation, economy, raising emergency taxes TO HELP YOU, education, holidays, added school days when one has to fit 70 accumulated emergency weather days into 2 months of summer school, airports (travel), tourism, cemeteries, TV reception, canceled sporting events if not as to weather maybe damaged stadiums and funding needed for repairs (insurance might cover 1 but 2 in 3 years???), damaged prisons, more funds for police/rescue, damaged damns/levees... oh, wait i stated only to post up to Alpha or z+1 its already at z+5, sorry i lied to you skeptic$. Make sure you find some excuse to explain how paying more later will cost less, try not to use that the globe is not warming nor that things that are greenhouse gases do not create a greenhouse effect.

 

Had 8 more sentences (1 was in the purposeful  run on style) that i typed off the cuff thats forever lost (unless its in WxU servers)

 
Here the 8th sentence i kind of remember.

 
Try this for the winning bumper sticker to help promote what aGW is to the general public. (or was it selected already?)

 
Create a bumper sticker that reads The cost of Global warming/aGW scan> (on the bumper sticker add a QR code that details a list as my "A" thru "M" list above, of course add much more.  

  Even though its for a car's bumper place them in stores that support scientific upholding of aGW facts, newspaper ADs.

Include on the website the QR code lead to an economics calculator for visitors to calculate the costs of not doing anything and hoping a 30 (60 yr) year trend is a dream/nightmare and include the ability for people enter zip codes and the cost of oh lets say 2,  1 in 250 years severe weather events as any 2 combinations of 1 in 250/500 year flood, ice, winds, drought etc in their zip code all within a year.

 
aGW skeptic$ go ahead make your own QR code page and scientist upholding facts of aGW point to the skeptic$ site to show how little skeptic$ care of the general pvblic. Will the skeptic$  include a calculator for both what they think is being wasted now and the cost of having more severe weather events in not taking aGW seriously with facts, will the skeptic$ point to the scientists that uphold aGW findings page?
Quoting 205. CybrTeddy:



2013 could also end up a fairly close analog to this season as well.
Quoting 205. CybrTeddy:



2013 could also end up a fairly close analog to this season as well.


I do think this season activity will be something between.
11-13 TS
4-6 Hurricanes
1-3 MH.
This season forecast is strange, We'll have La Nina but SST in the Atlantic are weird. But based on the previous years I would say this season will not be active. will be average at best.
Ivor sued LSU and won, as I had the opp to meet Him here in November 2009.

We always shoot our scouts. The better they are , the more arrows in their back.
Quoting 206. BaltimoreBrian:

I just saw the word 'geoscientist' in an article. Is that what earth science degree holders are called now?


Commonly used term (at least in my line of work) encompassing geologists, geophysicists, sometimes geotechnical engineers, et al. We've been using the term for at least the last 15 years, maybe more.
Edit. Sorry, buggy android software led to double post, removed
Only 4-5 3 minute showeers at my place. Glad to see more is forecast.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
250 PM PDT THU APR 7 2016

...A PARADE OF PACIFIC LOWS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
INTO NEXT WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...ONE LOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS SPINNING OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST. THIS LOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD TONIGHT-
FRIDAY...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A MORE POTENT
LOW OFF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE
SLOWING DOWN AND MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS POISED TO DELIVER A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
A WEAKER PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SYSTEM ARRIVING DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
ACTIVE TIMES AHEAD.
Quoting 197. RayT:

Hopefully you guys do get some rain. It sure looks like you need it.


Another round of sprinkles .... KRAL .01, Indian Hills PWS .02....
Quoting 209. wunderkidcayman:



I strongly doubt that will happen


Curious, based on what analysis?
Not one study has ever been done on the subsistent on the Gulf coast. Because of oil and gas drilling EVER


This doesn't look half bad. Maybe it will make up some for the near-average SSTs in the MDR.
Quoting 221. RobertWC:

Not one study has ever been done on the subsistent on the Gulf coast. Because of oil and gas drilling EVER



I seem to remember though that there was one on the subsidence resulting from salt mining -- I believe there is a large salt dome down there that has been mined and as the salt is removed it cold-flows and removes support from the overburden, which then cold-flows to follow. So lots of possible causes for NOLA to be below the waves.
Quoting 209. wunderkidcayman:



I strongly doubt that will happen
Quoting 220. Bucsboltsfan:



Curious, based on what analysis?



NAO expected to go negative for the first time since January, we'll see how this turns out to the Atlantic, also I think that can be that the models are overreacting to La Nina and are cooling the tropics all around the globe.
Quoting 174. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 1h1 hour ago
Top 5 objective analogs for NMME summer forecast: 1988, 1970, 2013, 1973, 1954. The resulting TC frequency anomaly:


This looks pretty spot on to what I'm expecting. The marginal AMO configuration, with average or even slightly below average temperatures across the Central/East Atlantic, should keep things below average in terms of ACE. However, a very strong African Easterly Jet should still aid in some quick developers near Cape Verde.

Meanwhile, warmer than average sea surface temperatures coupled with an intensifying La Nina should promote plenty of close-to-home activity. I think the Gulf and Caribbean will be much more active than recent years...not that my statement is profound given how little activity we've had there.

My preliminary forecast: 14-7-3.
Quoting 224. stormchaser19:




NAO expected to go negative for the first time since January, we'll see how this turns out to the Atlantic, also I think that can be that the models are overreacting to La Nina and are cooling the tropics around the globe.


Yes indeed
This is one of the things I was looking at


Quoting 220. Bucsboltsfan:



Curious, based on what analysis?


It's you and SAR always doing this to me

Go and second guess someone else for once
Quoting 226. TropicalAnalystwx13:


This looks pretty spot on to what I'm expecting. The marginal AMO configuration, with average or even slightly below average temperatures across the Central/East Atlantic, should keep things below average in terms of ACE. However, a very strong African Easterly Jet should still aid in some quick developers near Cape Verde.

Meanwhile, warmer than average sea surface temperatures coupled with an intensifying La Nina should promote plenty of close-to-home activity. I think the Gulf and Caribbean will be much more active than recent years...not that my statement is profound given how little activity we've had there.


Yes I think most of the action will be closer to home
GOM, Caribbean,SE US
Quoting 226. TropicalAnalystwx13:


This looks pretty spot on to what I'm expecting. The marginal AMO configuration, with average or even slightly below average temperatures across the Central/East Atlantic, should keep things below average in terms of ACE. However, a very strong African Easterly Jet should still aid in some quick developers near Cape Verde.

Meanwhile, warmer than average sea surface temperatures coupled with an intensifying La Nina should promote plenty of close-to-home activity. I think the Gulf and Caribbean will be much more active than recent years...not that my statement is profound given how little activity we've had there.

My preliminary forecast: 14-7-3.


Your numbers are very very similar to AccuWeathers Numbers
This season will also test the theory to determine if the Atlantic needed a El nino to "balance" things out.
lots of showers in Soo Cal

Quoting 230. washingtonian115:

This season will also test the theory to determine if the Atlantic needed a El nino to "balance" things out.
This El nino very different from others in the past.

Everything so warm.
Quoting 230. washingtonian115:

This season will also test the theory to determine if the Atlantic needed a El nino to "balance" things out.


What do u mean balance things out?
Quoting 232. Gearsts:

This El nino very different from others in the past.

Everything so warm.


Well...not so warm

Quoting 234. wunderkidcayman:



Well...not so warm


Quoting 226. TropicalAnalystwx13:


This looks pretty spot on to what I'm expecting. The marginal AMO configuration, with average or even slightly below average temperatures across the Central/East Atlantic, should keep things below average in terms of ACE. However, a very strong African Easterly Jet should still aid in some quick developers near Cape Verde.

Meanwhile, warmer than average sea surface temperatures coupled with an intensifying La Nina should promote plenty of close-to-home activity. I think the Gulf and Caribbean will be much more active than recent years...not that my statement is profound given how little activity we've had there.

My preliminary forecast: 14-7-3.
Not liking the look of those tracks at all. Too many over island areas and into mainland coastlines. And while the analog years featured mostly low-impact storms, I don't think we can count on a similar scenario in this globally warming era...
BTW, how is Fiji faring?
Something new comes our way....

Yale Climate Connections introduces The Climate Web [90 second audio recording].

And here it is... The Climate Web

The pitch? "Delivering Actionable Knowledge - Like the Internet Was Supposed To".
"Unforgiven" - Shootout Scene HD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmhGYB4NdYc&ebc=A NyPxKqiD3NiHHTYUXTHMEtfxbjreIUfwSASA5Xlt4jK4Ge_GAF MhEjSsWYSanxmi97McldCX-32HTSMK3pCMYfyFReLZWnKDw&no html5=False
Quoting 205. CybrTeddy:



2013 could also end up a fairly close analog to this season as well.
perhaps
242. JRRP7
244. JRRP7
Quoting 242. JRRP7:


Coming in with the warm weather up here are Earthquakes... We just had a 4.3 near Wasilla. (which I felt in Anchorage area).



Alex rare Jan 2016 hurricane observe from space via iss
Quoting 227. wunderkidcayman:



Yes indeed
This is one of the things I was looking at




It's you and SAR always doing this to me

Go and second guess someone else for once


I'm not second guessing. I try to learn on here and I like to understand what you are seeing when you make comments like that.
Hey Keep. Snowing in Toronto?
Quoting 161. Gearsts:

Models have the cold ring upwelling later in the year killing the Cape-Verde season.

The cold water in the Natlantic moves south towards the MDR.


Who cares about the Cape Verde season? I'm much more interested in storms that form in the western Atlantic, because they're the ones that have the highest likelihood of affecting land.
up to .04" here....
Summer like high temp of 78° here in Acme wa, still 60° at 9 pm. Average high is 55°. Not complaining but I had to change into shorts and sandals and ate lunch in the shade. Going to officially call this the 2nd year in a row without any snow accumulation, hard to believe 5 yrs ago we had snow April 20th & 28th and didnt hit 80° all summer.
Quoting 252. PedleyCA:

up to .04" here....



Wow, better start filling those sandbags!

Quoting 254. plantmoretrees:



Wow, better start filling those sandbags!


Was 91.4F here yesterday and this morning it was a low of 61.7F, high was only 67.9F, might need a whole sandbag on Saturday...
Better to have sandbags around the house than dirtbags....


Quoting 256. Dakster:

Better to have sandbags around the house than dirtbags....


We are only supposed to get a 1/2", don't think we will need either of those...
When you are getting 8" every night, they may come in handy.
Quoting 252. PedleyCA:

up to .04" here....



.06 so far, mostly in the last 6 hours
now .05" @Indian Hills, .04@KRAL...

Should also mention that the high of 78° smashed the record by 6°. Was only 40° at 8am. Our highest average temp is only 73° in August for some perspective. Plants are really growing like crazy, guess this year its march showers bring out april flowers. In other news the DOT has started plowing the N cascades highway, they hope to have it open by the first weekend in may.
Quoting 227. wunderkidcayman:



It's you and SAR always doing this to me

Go and second guess someone else for once
"I wasn't talking to you! I HAVE A RIGHT TO MY OPINION!"

You're an adult. When you engage in a discussion on a public forum (and this would apply in real life too), you set yourself up for criticism; it doesn't have to be invited just because you're uncomfortable with it. Not to mention anyone can say they're a good forecaster if they lack an objective metric. You know how I get better? I go back and compare my forecast vs what actually happened. I've never seen you do that.
Quoting 251. KoritheMan:



Who cares about the Cape Verde season? I'm much more interested in storms that form in the western Atlantic, because they're the ones that have the highest likelihood of affecting land.

I understand your point, but.
List of territories that really cares about CV season:

-Barbados
- Granada
-saint vincent and the grenadines
- Santa Lucia
- Martinica
- Dominica
-Gualdalupe
-virgin islands
-Anguila
-antigua and barbuda

-Puerto Rico( U.S. territory)
-Dominican Republic ( Where I am)
-Haiti
-Bahamas
-Turks and Caicos
- BermudaSo, yeah there are a lot of people who cares.
Quoting 263. stormchaser19:


I understand your point, but:
List of territories that really cares about CV season:

-Barbados
- Granada
-saint vincent and the grenadines
- Santa Lucia
- Martinica
- Dominica
-Gualdalupe
-virgin islands
-Anguila
-antigua and barbuda

-Puerto Rico( U.S. territory)
-Dominican Republic ( Where I am)
-Haiti
-Bahamas
-Turks and Caicos
- Bermuda  So, yeah there are a lot of people who cares.



I was speaking strictly of recurves.
Quoting 256. Dakster:

Better to have sandbags around the house than dirtbags....



...but I'm smart...and a little funny. :)

I'm also slightly chilly for this time of the year, lower 50s in e. cen. FL.
Quoting 249. Bucsboltsfan:



I'm not second guessing. I try to learn on here and I like to understand what you are seeing when you make comments like that.


Oh ok it's just that it seems that you and few others are always on my ass and I don't like it that all

Quoting 262. KoritheMan:

"I wasn't talking to you! I HAVE A RIGHT TO MY OPINION!"

You're an adult. When you engage in a discussion on a public forum (and this would apply in real life too), you set yourself up for criticism; it doesn't have to be invited just because you're uncomfortable with it. Not to mention anyone can say they're a good forecaster if they lack an objective metric. You know how I get better? I go back and compare my forecast vs what actually happened. I've never seen you do that.


Geez!! ok chill out dude
And I do do that very often
Maybe you just never opened your eyes wide enough lol j/k but no seriously

Quoting 263. stormchaser19:


I understand your point, but.
List of territories that really cares about CV season:

-Barbados
- Granada
-saint vincent and the grenadines
- Santa Lucia
- Martinica
- Dominica
-Gualdalupe
-virgin islands
-Anguila
-antigua and barbuda

-Puerto Rico( U.S. territory)
-Dominican Republic ( Where I am)
-Haiti
-Bahamas
-Turks and Caicos
- Bermuda��So, yeah there are a lot of people who cares.



Also
Jamaica
Cayman Island
Nicaragua
Honduras
Belize
Cancun
Cozumel
Yucatan
Eastern Mexico
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Louisana
Texas

All care about CV Season more so when we get them CV low rider storms that get deep into the Caribbean and GOM
Quoting 262. KoritheMan:

"I wasn't talking to you! I HAVE A RIGHT TO MY OPINION!"

You're an adult. When you engage in a discussion on a public forum (and this would apply in real life too), you set yourself up for criticism; it doesn't have to be invited just because you're uncomfortable with it. Not to mention anyone can say they're a good forecaster if they lack an objective metric. You know how I get better? I go back and compare my forecast vs what actually happened. I've never seen you do that.


Also I wasn't talking to you!!
Why are you even involved!!

Anyway what ever continued on from comment #266
Quoting 242. JRRP7:




I say it's gonna drop quicker and La Niña peaks much cooler
269. MahFL
Quoting 212. vis0:

Not formatted nor grammar checked as the one that was lost...


No one reads long posts, keep it short and snappy and to the point.
Dr. Masters, a relatively severe hailstorm affected my area yesterday, leaving marble sized hail strewn across my yard. (I live in delaware and have only seen hail once before many years ago). However, this system barely even showed up on radar, and certainly didn't appear to be severe. Why is this?
Quoting 206. BaltimoreBrian:

I just saw the word 'geoscientist' in an article. Is that what earth science degree holders are called now?
I did an internet search on "degrees in geoscience" and some universities offer bachelor's degrees. Definitely interdisciplinary between more traditional fields of study, perhaps a good stepping stone to a more focused graduate degree. I am all in favor of breaking the walls down between the established disciplines when it makes sense due to changes in technology and our society's problems.
Good morning abroad from cool but brightly sunny Germany with some pics of flashflooding in Ta'if/Saudi Arabia yesterday:



Collection of videos and pics here (English):
Cars swept away as biblical flooding engulfs Taif, Saudi Arabia
By Strange Sounds - Apr 7, 2016

Or here (Arabian newspaper).

-----------------------------------

Speaking of flooding: Severe weather in the northeastern tip of Argentina and countries to the east of this spot resumes - for many hours already. Guess we'll hear more soon - and maybe even our Pablosyn in southern Brazil may feel some of this weather soon?


Current saved pic. Source.

----------------------------

And finally a view to Fiji which had to deal with "Zena" recently:

Fiji businesses count cost of deluge
RNZ, 4:27 pm on 8 April 2016
Shopkeepers are mopping up in the Fijian town of Nadi after a huge deluge of rain this week. The busy tourist and business centre was inundated with water metres high racing down the main street and flooding shops. ...

Zika Fears As Fiji Faces Cyclone Zena Recovery
By Thom Mitchell on April 8, 2016 Environment
The United Nations is warning that the Zika virus could spread quickly throughout Fiji in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Zena, which left pools of stagnant water across the stricken island nation this week. ...
Quoting 270. Stormlover16:

Dr. Masters, a relatively severe hailstorm affected my area yesterday, leaving marble sized hail strewn across my yard. (I live in delaware and have only seen hail once before many years ago). However, this system barely even showed up on radar, and certainly didn't appear to be severe. Why is this?


sounds like a cold core upper level low, it can cause some weird weather, like hail during non thunderstorm events.

I believe the saying goes "cold core low, weatherman's woe"
Quoting 273. pipelines:



sounds like a cold core upper level low, it can cause some weird weather, like hail during non thunderstorm events.

I believe the saying goes "cold core low, weatherman's woe"
I've never heard anybody say that. Are you just making that up ??
Quoting 274. Llamaluvr:

I've never heard anybody say that. Are you just making that up ??


Nope I've heard it too, sometimes with "cutoff" substituted for "cold core"
Worst freeze damage to wild plants I've ever seen in the DC area from 4/6 freeze. Garden plants and vegetables, due to most gardeners' prudence, or just lucky timing fared better. These temperatures were close to record levels but the real culprit was extreme warmth in March which advanced them about two weeks further than the seasonal normal. Damage was comparable to a 4/20 freeze of this magnitude in a normal year.
277. RayT
Let it rain, let it rain, let it rain.

You guys sure need it out there.

Quoting 260. PedleyCA:

now .05" @Indian Hills, .04@KRAL...


Quoting 251. KoritheMan:



Who cares about the Cape Verde season? I'm much more interested in storms that form in the western Atlantic, because they're the ones that have the highest likelihood of affecting land.
I agree with this statement.While Cape verde hurricanes can be nasty they have a less likely hood of affecting the western Atlantic then say a storm that forms near the Lesser Antillies (Irene) or a storm that forms down n the S.W caribbean (Wilma) and with the way the conditions are setting up and what the models are saying the GOM,Bahamas,and the caribbean will have to be watched this season.Ironically the most active and expensive hurricane season on record (2005) didn't really have a active cape verde season.
I'm a bit sad to ask this but does anyone remember my forecast season numbers for 2012, 2011, 2010
I had those numbers in a document on my laptop but some idiot kid broke into my house nearly 2 year ago and stole many things including that laptop
Quoting 221. RobertWC:

Not one study has ever been done on the subsistent on the Gulf coast. Because of oil and gas drilling EVER





You might find something here. I haven't researched it, just know someone that lived there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baytown_Nature_Cent er
Quoting 269. MahFL:



No one reads long posts, keep it short and snappy and to the point.



Please, don't speak for me. Reading is a art form today.

Thanx
LAUNCH TODAY

The next launch is the SpaceX CRS-8. It is scheduled for today, April 8th. Window opens for launch at 4:43pm. This is SpaceX's 8th contracted resupply mission to the International Space Station. Weather is 90% chance of go. The slight concern is mostly upper winds. The first stage will attempt it's first ever successful landing on the drone ship named Of Course I Still Love You.

photo: Late cargo load operations at Space Launch Complex 40 on Thursday. Photo credit: SpaceX



I should be viewing and taking pictures from the Turn Basin at Kennedy Space Center.
These are NASA's GEOS-5 April's forecast anomalies for April.



Left or first is temp anomaly. Shows continued crazy warmth for much of the Arctic, Alaska, Northwest US through west Canada, Southeast Asia, Parts of Africa, Russia, Europe, Australia, overall warm month expected. The other is precipitation anomaly. Reds are excessive rain. For the United States we may see a epic event in Nebraska/South Dakota. Looks potentially really wet across parts of the south like Georgia and southern Alabama. California gets some rain, the Northwest dries out some. Globally South China to Nepal may see flooding. Other areas favored for rain are Central East Africa, Northern South America and Central South America. Drought most likely continuing for Southeast Asia.
www.co2.earth

Atmospheric CO2

March 2016

404.83
parts per million (ppm)


Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (NOAA)

Preliminary data released April 5, 2016
Good Morning; Winter still has a strong hold around the Great Lakes region today due to that Polar air dip in the jet stream:


Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
Quoting 276. georgevandenberghe:

Worst freeze damage to wild plants I've ever seen in the DC area from 4/6 freeze. Garden plants and vegetables, due to most gardeners' prudence, or just lucky timing fared better. These temperatures were close to record levels but the real culprit was extreme warmth in March which advanced them about two weeks further than the seasonal normal. Damage was comparable to a 4/20 freeze of this magnitude in a normal year.

Our magnolia tree got freeze-burned (the white flowers turned brown) but the daffodils and tulips (etc.) are fine so far. That may change tonight with a forecast low of 24° F. I hope the cherry trees' green buds survive this wild weather.
Quoting 269. MahFL:



No one reads long posts, keep it short and snappy and to the point.


A disease of the 21'st century. It's unnerving how much computers and multitasking
have shortened my own atte..



cool 'nother text.. bye!
Quoting 286. ChiThom:


Our magnolia tree got freeze-burned (the white flowers turned brown) but the daffodils and tulips (etc.) are fine so far. That may change tonight with a forecast low of 24° F. I hope the cherry trees' green buds survive this wild weather.


24 is within our envelope of possibility saturday night!
Finally the current doppler look and forcast today and for tomorrow; nice to see that SoCal is getting some rain. Not enough for the long term but it will help the farmers in the rainy areas not have to tap into the wells and canals as much in the short term:


Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop
Saturday:

Today:
Quoting 285. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning; Winter still has a strong hold around the Great Lakes region today due to that Polar air dip in the jet stream:


Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

yeah but it moves on
by end of next week
the last 2 weeks of the month
should get back into a more normal
to above normal warming trend
Quoting 288. georgevandenberghe:



24 is within our envelope of possibility saturday night!
george, didn't you say last week or so that blooming cherries & peaches should survive down to 27? That's right where we in S C IL are supposed to be Sat. morning, & mine are in full bloom.

Had a total .6" from Wed rain, imagine farmers will be back in full bore today as winds should have surfaces dried enough. Plan on checking the patch tonight, don't want any popped morels to freeze tonight.:)


coldest point sat morning
Quoting 292. dabirds:

george, didn't you say last week or so that blooming cherries & peaches should survive down to 27? That's right where we in S C IL are supposed to be Sat. morning, & mine are in full bloom.

Had a total .6" from Wed rain, imagine farmers will be back in full bore today as winds should have surfaces dried enough. Plan on checking the patch tonight, don't want any popped morels to freeze tonight.:)

Not sure how they fared because blossoms were mostly off and damage to tiny fruits can be hard to see but it looks like my peaches did okay. Cherries in the suburbs are also okay. Mid 20s wednesday morning.
Quoting 282. Skyepony:

LAUNCH TODAY

The next launch is the SpaceX CRS-8. It is scheduled for today, April 8th. Window opens for launch at 4:43pm. This is SpaceX's 8th contracted resupply mission to the International Space Station. Weather is 90% chance of go. The slight concern is mostly upper winds. The first stage will attempt it's first ever successful landing on the drone ship named Of Course I Still Love You.

photo: Late cargo load operations at Space Launch Complex 40 on Thursday. Photo credit: SpaceX



I should be viewing and taking pictures from the Turn Basin at Kennedy Space Center.


Let's hope for a success.
I've got a FREEZE WARNING tonight. Here are the 3 types of freezes.

Regular Freeze: 28-32F
'Ard Freeze: 24-28F
Dead 'Ard Freeze: Below 24F
The Mid Atlantic and New England will finally see above normal temperatures next weekend.
Quoting 295. georgevandenberghe:


Not sure how they fared because blossoms were mostly off and damage to tiny fruits can be hard to see but it looks like my peaches did okay. Cherries in the suburbs are also okay. Mid 20s wednesday morning.

you may get a freezing night or two yet before its all said and done
Quoting 297. 62901IL:

I've got a FREEZE WARNING tonight. Here are the 3 types of freezes.

Regular Freeze: 28-32F
'Ard Freeze: 24-28F
Dead 'Ard Freeze: Below 24F



May I present to you...ENGULFMENT.

Quoting 300. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Quoting 297. 62901IL:

I've got a FREEZE WARNING tonight. Here are the 3 types of freezes.

Regular Freeze: 28-32F
'Ard Freeze: 24-28F
Dead 'Ard Freeze: Below 24F




And for when it's not quite cold enough to freeze, the NWS may issue a Frost Advisories.

Some areas have Frost Advisories this weekend for low temperatures that are expected to range from 32 to 35 degrees. That's what we need to wipe out most of these Mosquitoes down here.
Last night I was outside talking on the phone just after sunset and I was being used as a mosquito buffet.
Quoting 302. Sfloridacat5:




And for when it's not quite cold enough to freeze, the NWS may issue a Frost Advisories.

Some areas have Frost Advisories this weekend for low temperatures that are expected to range from 32 to 35 degrees.
gonna be a tad chilly we be going down to -9c 16f tonight into Saturday morning Saturday afternoon highs will be near 30f

Normals

Max:

50°F

Min:

36°F
Quoting 296. 62901IL:



Let's hope for a success.
I hope for two successes -- a good launch and docking at the ISS, and a perfect landing of the first stage, so it can be reused. This is important for the ability to continue to support the ISS at manageable costs -- those rockets are not cheap!
'There's no more land' Subsidence and sea level rise in south Louisiana.

Quoting 260. PedleyCA:

now .05" @Indian Hills, .04@KRAL...




Up to .15 now
308. vis0

Quoting 230. washingtonian115:

This season will also test the theory to determine if the Atlantic needed a El nino to "balance" things out.
in my un-humble opinion i'd rephrase it to

This season will add to the collection of past El Nino's to test the theory and determine if the Atlantic needed an El nino to "balance" things out and how aGW/GW is teeter-totering that influence.

SO...(vis0 running away in a zig-zag (3 stooges pattern) as no to get hit by a slightly used snow blower)...THERE!
Remember last year's hurricane season was basically an "average" season in terms of named storms.

This came as a surprise to many of the top experts/forecasters in the field.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
311. vis0

Quoting 269. MahFL:



No one reads long posts, keep it short and snappy and to the point.


  • Before aGW/GW the costs of living was high, but one could manage it (nice living standards) by saving money.
  • After aGW (and/or not trying to slow or even stop the building of aGW)  the cost of living will have to be paid in 200 year installments (pass the buck) and with lives**.


**When i say lives i don't mean poof one dies.  It is pain, pain suffering, pain, mental anguish then ...

MahFL, thanks for being considerate. 
Lets not set that
"No one reads long posts" in stone so youngins don't start or add to their twitter mind-set in thinking its cool not to read long posts to books.

 Its that vis0 posts are hard to read and make some ill / get headaches.

A good example of the fun of reading long posts or books is Dr. Masters, so its not the length that counts its the content...where have i NOT heard that before.


Quoting 299. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

you may get a freezing night or two yet before its all said and done


Saturday night looks bad. Expecting -3C.

This would not be so bad if local vegetation was not two weeks in advance of a normal spring.

Radiation frost with calm clear nights though is a hazard in the suburbs well into May. My latest (no plant damage, just frost on exposed surfaces insulated from the ground) was May 23, 2002. Frost occurred in the coldest pockets of the DC suburbs on June 7, 1977, enough to cause a few local gardeners living there to report plant damage. My low that morning was +7C with a tree shaded exposure but I doubt my exposed areas went below +5C. Spring 1977 was the third warmest of record BTW and summer 1977 was warmer than normal though not extreme.