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March Going Out with a Weeklong Roar of Severe Weather

By: Bob Henson 7:00 PM GMT on March 27, 2017

Severe weather watches may be a daily occurrence into at least the first weekend of April, as upper-level energy continues to stream across the U.S. atop an increasingly rich supply of low-level moisture. Already, 2017 has been a noteworthy year for severe weather. Even after tornado reports for earlier decades are inflation-adjusted (in order to balance the more complete reporting of tornadoes in recent years), the total of 325 preliminary tornado reports through Sunday is the highest for the period Jan. 1 - Mar. 26 in records dating back to 1954.

A hail-strewn Sunday in TX/OK
Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico returned just in time on Sunday to produce a bumper crop of intense thunderstorms ahead of a sharp dry line in Oklahoma and Texas, especially between the Oklahoma City and Dallas-Fort Worth metro areas. Fortunately, the conditions didn’t coalesce to produce many tornadoes—only one was reported, near Ada, OK (see photo at bottom)—but more than 100 reports of severe hail had been compiled by the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) as of Monday morning. Just southeast of Denton, TX, the town of Corinth was bombarded by hailstones as large as 4.25” (for comparison, a softball is about 4” wide). Supercells in south-central Oklahoma dropped widespread 2” - 3” hail, with one report of a 3.25” hailstone southeast of Francis, OK. There was considerably less high wind than large hail in Sunday’s storms, although a gust to 65 mph was reported near Anthony, KS.


Figure 1. Rick Smith, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service office in Norman, OK, took this photo of a supercell in eastern Oklahoma from the National Weather Center offices in Norman around 6:00 pm CDT Sunday, March 26, 2017. Image credit: Rick Smith, used with permission.

Stop in the middle of a highway? Hail, no!
Sunday’s prolific hail producers reignited a problem familiar to those in the Southern Plains: the specter of people parking beneath bridges, right in the middle of highways (even interstates!), in order to protect their vehicles. It goes without saying that this practice not only puts everyone behind the stopped car(s) at risk of hail damage, but it impedes any emergency vehicles from using the roadway. If a tornado were to strike one of these traffic clots, a major disaster could easily result. Dennis Mersereau (@wxdam) included plenty of photographic evidence and food for thought in his 2015 post on this issue: “This is one of those instances where people have to remember that we all live in a society, and that they have to think of the safety of those around them, as well.”


Figure 2. Damage expert Tim Marshall (Haig Engineering) captured this 3” diameter hailstone from the storm that struck Double Oak, Corinth, The Colony, and Frisco, TX, just north of Marshall’s house. “Looks like I’ll be booked evaluating the damage through at least mid-summer,” said Marshall. “Spring has roared in like a lion.” Image credit: (c) Tim Marshall, used with permission.


Figure 3. As of Monday morning, March 27, 2017, the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center had designated “enhanced” risk areas for parts of the Tennessee Valley from KY to MS on Monday and for parts of TX and OK on Tuesday, March 28. Significant risk may also emerge on Wednesday and subsequent days this week.

Day by day through the week ahead
Very large hail was a continuing threat on Monday afternoon, as the pocket of very cold air aloft migrated into the mid-Mississippi Valley. In its outlook issued at 11:30 am CDT Monday (see Figure 2), SPC was highlighting far western TN and northern MS with a risk for significant large hail (2” or more diameter). A preexisting cluster of thunderstorms moving through northeast AR at midday Monday was expected to segue into new supercells toward the southeast. A solid swath of low-level moisture evident in the 12Z Monday sounding from Jackson, TN, will be moving into the area by afternoon, enhancing the severe threat. Late Monday, high winds may become more of a concern as the supercells morph into one or more squall lines further east toward Nashville, TN, and Huntsville, AL. As with Sunday, the tornado threat appears fairly low on Monday afternoon.

The U.S. pattern will recharge on Tuesday as another compact but strong upper-level low swings into the Southern Rockies. Deep low-level moisture will surge into Texas ahead of the upper low, with dew points of 60°F to 70°F likely to be widespread by Tuesday afternoon. Severe thunderstorms may form along a warm front expected to lie near the Red River of west TX/OK, as well as along a dry line in the South Plains of TX. The greatest likelihood of tornadoes will likely be near the intersection of the dry line and warm front (the “triple point”), but upper-level wind shear and instability could be more than adequate for tornadic supercells along either boundary.

Another round of intense storms appears likely on Wednesday from eastern OK and TX into parts of AR and LA, especially if the remnant activity from Tuesday night doesn’t interfere. It’s unclear if low-level wind shear will be as strong on Wednesday as on Tuesday, but conditions still appear ripe for widespread storms dumping heavy rain, hail, and high wind, as well as the possibility of embedded tornadoes.

More severe weather could erupt on Thursday, especially in and near Mississippi, and on Friday as far east as the Carolinas, as the upper low translates across the eastern U.S. Meanwhile, yet another upper low will be diving into the southwest U.S., poised to trigger the next multi-day round of severe storms. This one may begin on Saturday across western TX if moisture returns in time. A better bet for severe weather in TX/OK/LA may be on Sunday, with the upper low expected to stall out as unstable air continues streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico. Patterns like this sometimes evolve into more of a heavy-rain threat than a tornado-favorable setup, but there is still ample time to see how this one evolves.

Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the pattern will remain progressive into next week, with at least one more significant upper low traversing the U.S.

We’ll be back with our next post on Tuesday. For more on Tropical Cyclone Debbie, which was approaching the Queensland, Australia, coast early Monday afternoon EST, see Jeff Masters’ post from Monday morning. Please free to discuss Debbie in the comment section of this post!

Bob Henson



]






Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Mr. Henson
couple tornado warned cells already on the mississippi/tennessee border. who knows what today will bring!

comment removed by admin
Hamilton Island still well within the SW eyewall of Debbie. Pressure below 982 mb. 80 mm of rainfall over last 20 hours. Now reporting sustained winds of 76 knots, with reported gusts up to 102 knots. They have had sustained winds over the last 3 hours of over 70 knots.

LINK

So, Debbie has stalled. Position at 5 a.m. local time is the same as at 4 a.m. (19.8S 149.2E)

And it should make landfall near Bowen at 1 p.m. local (3 a.m. UTC). On average that would be 7 - 8 mph forward motion.

Bureau of Meteorology
ice can be problematic in a warming world.

Not sure AAA would be able to help with this issue.

http://mcadamsplumbing.com/wp-content/uploads/201 2/10/Frozen_pipes.jpg

Lamar 's "hearings" we need a real time plan of attack. There thousands of us that can do this. We all know what is coming . A "show trial". If web has a volcanic of push back / then we might blunt the spear.

No doubt C-Span is the key . Go to work . These people are about to sign a death warrant for the Earth.

What ever your issue is, they all pale against this. If your water is poisoned, fighting for breast cancer pales.

If your gay, if your water is poisoned, your fight is over.
If you are poor , If your water is poisoned, your fight is over.
If you are framer. your fight is over.
If you are a city , if your water is poisoned, your fight is over.
Blog looks good in Courier font too ;-)
Copy-pasting my own comment from the last blog:

Media coverage of climate change
Yale Climate Connections - March 27.

Key books and reports on climate change and the media, 2003-2011 (Part 1).


(...) To provide perspective on the strange news world in which journalists and citizens now find themselves, Yale Climate Connections offers this historical review of the key books and reports on media coverage of climate change -- in two parts. Part 1 covers the years 2003 to 2011. Part 2 will cover 2012 to the present. (...)


Many downloadable for free (see included links).
Quoting 4. Patrap:




Did you just break the blog?
Quoting 2. earthisanocean:

couple tornado warned cells already on the mississippi/tennessee border. who knows what today will bring!




Large area of 5% tornado chance for today's severe weather event:



Tomorrow could be quite interesting in regards to tornadoes. Thanks for the update Bob Henson!
Thanks for the Update Mr. Henson. This begs the question in terms of the Category 6 site and new changeover if you and Dr. Masters post two different entries on the same day such as today (Dr. Masters on Debbie earlier and now Your's on this current March weather). Will we be able to post "separate" comments on each different post, in a parallel environment for the day (i.e. both March 27th posts appearing under Category 6), or will the entries just substitute (like today and in the past) under the most recent Category 6 heading?

Thanks in Advance.
Here is the long-range radar loop, and delayed floater, again for Debbie; nice to have doppler so there is no question as to where the storm is going to make landfall, the structure of the eye wall, and how the jogs impact the timing:




Quoting 10. elioe:



Did you just break the blog?


A empath can do many things.

A Human has many more senses than they know. We who have them heightened by accident, concussions and other experiences know that.

Look over your left shoulder.
And the close-up loop; I can see landfall (with the crossing of the center at this rate) somewhere between Hideaway Bay to the South and Abbot Point to the North.

Quoting 7. iceagecoming:

ice can be problematic in a warming world.

Not sure AAA would be able to help with this issue.

http://mcadamsplumbing.com/wp-content/uploads/201 2/10/Frozen_pipes.jpg




A nice picture of what can happen when a water pipe bursts in your garage, in Broomfield, Colorado. Iceagecoming, what would make you believe that water would not freeze in a warming global climate?
As to the current entry; things are starting to pick up. A current tornado warning in the corner of SW Kentucky and some hail reports starting to come in (over the past 3 hours): the wind reports will be next along with confirmed tornadoes

Today:
today Reports Graphic
Last 3 Hours:last3hours Reports Graphic
Quoting 16. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



A nice picture of what can happen when a water pipe bursts in your garage, in Broomfield, Colorado. Iceagecoming, what would make you believe that water would not freeze in a warming global climate?


That is just Messed Up on so many levels....
Quoting 15. weathermanwannabe:

And the close-up loop; I can see landfall (with the crossing of the center at this rate) somewhere between Hideaway Bay to the South and Abbot Point to the North.



Still looks like it is stalled.
BOM Queensland:
@BOM_Qld

#StormTide from #CycloneDebbie increasing at #LagunaQuays and #Mackay. Dangerous stormtide possible, crossing near high tide. Source: DSITI

I'm not sure what this site is going to be good for in the future. They have already deleted many things without mentioning it. I went to look at MOS guidance and the last output was in late January of this year.
I think it's going to turn into just another average weather website, like, The Weather Channel. Spoon fed and brain dead.
I did want them to clean up Dr. Masters blog, but I never wanted the whole thing gutted.
WaPo: Here’s how Trump will try to eviscerate Obama’s climate policies on Tuesday
1. Instructions to EPA to rewrite regulations restricting carbon emissions from both new and existing power plants.
2. Lift a moratorium on federal coal leasing.
3. Abolish federal guidance instructing agencies to incorporate climate change into federal decision-making.
4. Jettison the Obama administration’s “social cost of carbon.”
5. Promote oil and gas development on Interior’s lands, including national wildlife refuges.
nothing about the Paris agreement... yet.
Quoting 21. bwtranch:

I'm not sure what this site is going to be good for in the future. They have already deleted many things without mentioning it. I went to look at MOS guidance and the last output was in late January of this year.
I think it's going to turn into just another average weather website, like, The Weather Channel. Spoon fed and brain dead.
I did want them to clean up Dr. Masters blog, but I never wanted the whole thing gutted.
I knew WU mail would be getting deleted as soon as the admin removed the orange envelope from the overhead and didn't bother to correct the problem.I had e-mailed them several times to fix that (this was back in early December) and never got a response back from them.The bloggers and the community here is what helped make WU what it is and now we're getting s#!%%ed on in the process.I predict that the comment section under the blogs will be removed eventually in the future as well.Mark my words........
BOM Queensland‏:
@BOM_Qld 14 min

Track & threat map at 6am for #CycloneDebbie. #Landfall expected near #Bowen close to midday. Latest: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml



Latest Weather Graphs for Bowen Airport


Quoting 16. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



A nice picture of what can happen when a water pipe bursts in your garage, in Broomfield, Colorado. Iceagecoming, what would make you believe that water would not freeze in a warming global climate?


The same magic fairy dust that failed to protect the DC cherry blossoms from their first ever major deep freeze prior to blooming. They've never frozen before. And it's the third warmest early spring I can remember (1976 and 1990 were warmer and without mid March arctic blasts.. no such luck this year) This year they did though the 70% that were prior to "puffy white" survived and are putting on a decent show now.
Quoting 18. PedleyCA:



That is just Messed Up on so many levels....


I've often argued that the safest thing to do in an ice storm is to use chains. One wrapped around each garage door handle and secured with locks with the cars inside.. There.. safe!

But not needed for this case
Quoting 23. washingtonian115:



I knew WU mail would be getting deleted as soon as the admin removed the orange envelope from the overhead and didn't bother to correct the problem.I had e-mailed them several times to fix that (this was back in early December) and never got a response back from them.The bloggers and the community here is what helped make WU what it is and now we're getting s#!%%ed on in the process.I predict that the comment section under the blogs will be removed eventually in the future as well.Mark my words........

Your prediction is a likely reality April 3 when the blogs are removed as well as their contents.

As of April 3rd, all the features listed below will become unavailable and will be removed from Weather Underground’s website and mobile applications.

Member blogs
WUMail
SMS alerts
"


"
Quoting 27. georgevandenberghe:





Members with blogs will be archived and available, but w/o the comments included.

Seems to have gone null in motion the last 2 hours.

Looks like 90L won't develop. Arlene will probably have to wait for another chance. The "real" season will be here in a little over two months. Nonetheless it was very cool to see a March invest in the Atlantic.
Quoting 28. Patrap:




Members with blogs will be archived and available, but w/o the comments included.




Thanks for clarifying.
One can still see your comment and Blog entry counts at the bottom of the Blog Directory page at the bottom.


Community Participation

447 comments and 8 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 461 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 146310 comments in all blogs.
I hate to say it, but if there is 3 inch hail dropping out of the sky, I'm stopping under an overpass. No one is going to be moving with hail that large falling, including emergency vehicles.
all its going to take is a increase of a few inches of ocean water for everyone to accept the fact. the climate is changing rapidly. locally im looking for high water in Oct Nov this yr as high as its ever been reported. e cen florida
Quoting 29. Patrap:

Seems to have gone null in motion the last 2 hours.




It has really slowed down (quite the wobble); means about three possible scenarios (as compared to the earlier tracks and timing of a landfall a few hours ago); a) the steering currents have weakend a little unexpectedly; b) it is responding to an earlier erosion in the ridge the storm was going around and has slowed down in response; or c) it just wants to batter the coast for while before going in.........................................
Increasingly Out of the Human Context: Atmospheric CO2 Likely to Hit Monthly Peak Near 410 ppm in 2017
“The rate of CO2 growth over the last decade is 100 to 200 times faster than what the Earth experienced during the transition from the last ice age. This is a real shock to the atmosphere.” — Pieter Tans, lead scientist at NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network

*****
Link
the eye of debbie is around 100 km wide. at it's slow moving pace, it could take 3 hours to pass over certain locations.

hope these folks got lots of cocktails and snacks!
Nice weather update Bob Henson.
But...
Seriously, why should anyone feel free to discuss anything in the comments section knowing a week from now the entire comment history of this site will be trashed? Near 12 years of this grand community participation that was so encouraged within the blogs will disappear as if it never happened… Right now, the WU archives hold a wealth of knowledge, observations and experiences shared that anyone can reference, essentially weather-related diaries of our lives that won't be there after April 2.

You betcha, I'm feeling a stinging bitter end to what was an incredibly memorable 12 years of our lives - and time invested - in contributing to WU.
so why are they eliminating the option to comment ?
is it on all blogs or just this one
Quoting 38. DocNDswamp:

Nice weather update Bob Henson.
But...
Seriously, why should anyone feel free to discuss anything in the comments section knowing a week from now the entire comment history of this site will be trashed? Near 12 years of this grand community participation that was so encouraged within the blogs will disappear as if it never happened… Right now, the WU archives hold a wealth of knowledge, observations and experiences shared that anyone can reference, essentially weather-related diaries of our lives that won't be there after April 2.

You betcha, I'm feeling a stinging bitter end to what was an incredibly memorable 12 years of our lives - and time invested - in contributing to WU.

In terms of the current Conus weather, the t-storms are really starting to increase in coverage and I am still waiting on the latest GFS jet stream update to see if the jet has moved further to the East; lots of active severe t-storms warnings up at he moment with some really strong cells headed towards Huntsville, AL on a line all the way up to Bowling Green in KY:



This is the 12Z run which was supposed to update a few hours ago (every 6 hours):

Aviation Image

Quoting 39. 19N81W:

so why are they eliminating the option to comment ?
is it on all blogs or just this one



My understanding is we will only have Cat6 blogs, but we will be able to comment on them using a disquis format.
Quoting 38. DocNDswamp:

Nice weather update Bob Henson.
But...
Seriously, why should anyone feel free to discuss anything in the comments section knowing a week from now the entire comment history of this site will be trashed? Near 12 years of this grand community participation that was so encouraged within the blogs will disappear as if it never happened. Right now, the WU archives hold a wealth of knowledge, observations and experiences shared that anyone can reference, essentially weather-related diaries of our lives that won't be there after April 2.

You betcha, I'm feeling a stinging bitter end to what was an incredibly memorable 12 years of our lives - and time invested - in contributing to WU.



Im 100% behind DocNDswamp's statement above.

His words echo perfectly about the amount of data, comments, images, and other stats,conversation which made them the asset they are today.

And this, from a Featured blogger here is even more interesting.


Quoting 7. RickyRood:

Hi long-time readers and commenters,

As you know there have been and are changes in the WU blog page. Jeff has offered me space to continue blogging and I expect to continue on the recent schedule of about once per month.

I understand that the old archive of blogs will remain available. However, the old comments will not. I have asked (and expect to receive) a file of all of the old comments. I find them not only interesting, but a resource. I have had a couple of my Michigan colleagues comment on the depth and passion of my commenters. I have a notion, likely never realized, to use some of the social science text tools on the comment archive and look for trends in words, etc.

I am not sure exactly how the new blogs will support comments. I do know that WU mail will no longer exist. You all know that I am easy to find on the web, so don't hesitate to write. Probably should identify yourselves as one of commenters on the blog - since, I know very few actual names.

Will any of you be at the March for Science?

r


Im currently doing a 4 part series in the portlight featured entry on Human Migration due to climate change. Ive done part 1 and its been up awhile now.

Ive almost completed part 2, but to be honest..the drive to write has been pushed way down since I had a procedure 2 weeks ago today, and knowing my entries over 11 years are going in the file box....comments et al deleted

Ive been looking thru the members agreement we have as paying members, and there is some interesting lines it it.

Something other than business is afoot here.

And it reeks.

Badly.





Quoting 39. 19N81W:

so why are they eliminating the option to comment ?
is it on all blogs or just this one



Only the Cat 6 blog list will remain, and you may be able to comment there, while the member blogs have been given what amounted to a 30 day eviction notice - they will no longer exist. I do appreciate that our member blog entries will be archived but all comments to them are being neutered. Which, by the way is how we all met each other!
So sad a demise...

PS: been trying save my entries with the comments since got the eviction notice, and struggling to do so - been up past 4 am for several nights, losing time for other stuff needing attention - like sleep and work!
Sheesh...
So the question begs to be ask here, in the open, and to be heard by all.

How does a member get the same deal as Dr. Rood as to including ones comments in the archive? How is it a archive without the comments?

We await a answer.

And we're prepared to wait until Hell freezes over for a answer.

We all deserve it.

Thank's to any listening admins.

Quoting 43. DocNDswamp:



Only the Cat 6 blog list will remain, and you may be able to comment there, while the member blogs have been given what amounted to a 30 day eviction notice - they will no longer exist. I do appreciate that our member blog entries will be archived but all comments to them are being neutered. Which, by the way is how we all met each other!
So sad a demise...

PS: been trying save my entries with the comments since got the eviction notice, and struggling to do so - been up past 4 am for several nights, losing time for other stuff needing attention - like sleep and work!
Sheesh...




I was going to hire a IT Guy, but his price was 4 figures.

So....

Ce la vie'
Wishing everyone in the US threatened by this severe weather safe passage and see Yall in the am.

My computer at work is so much faster than the one at home (cluttered with the kids programs, games, and such) and I was really hoping to witness the land fall of Debbie on the loops before leaving for home this PM. Here's hoping that it has made landfall, and started dissipating, by the time I am back on tomorrow.

If I check back on here at 8:00 am EST tomorrow, and if Debbie is still wobbling offshore, I might have to scream a few times after logging on (and pray a little harder for the coastal residents there): this is painful to watch at the moment:

[Last Edit] it does look like it has resumed movement a little bit in the last several radar frames but I am afraid that is is possible that Hayman Island, which is just about to clear into the eye, was near or in the eyewall for an extended period of time................Ouch.



According to BoM, Debbie has now remained at the exact same position for three hours. Latest observation from Hamilton Island (link in comment #5) is 82 kts with gusts to 106 kts. It could be even worse battering on Hayman Island.
Quoting 33. pipelines:

I hate to say it, but if there is 3 inch hail dropping out of the sky, I'm stopping under an overpass. No one is going to be moving with hail that large falling, including emergency vehicles.
You mean just speeding down the Interstate at 75 mph in a hailstorm isn't safe? Wow, I should e-mail the safety experts and let them know.
Observed Tornado


Leaving finally with a pic of Hayman Island off the Web; good geography..............Some high end resorts and a gateway to the Great Barrier Reef; now we also have to see what kind of coral damage this storm might cause in the shallower parts it crosses over; certain that all the tourists were evacuated but wondering about any of the resort staff that might have stayed on the Island......Over and Out.

Image result for hayman island pictures 
Sun's rising, Himawari-8 10 Minute Floater 1 Band 3 is back.
so i had an argument with a denier a few days ago (old bike courier friend i hadnt seen in a while, told him i was starting to study weather and he very quickly went to the 'oh youre one of those global warming believers arent you) and after much 'debate' we both left each other with a hearty handshake, a laugh, and a 'have fun being brainwashed' line (or something to that effect). but for me anyway, it was deeply unsettling and required more than one gin and tonic at the end of the day.

he straight up didn't think co2 was a heat trapping gas! so that was hard to move on from. but it made me think about one think that i think a lot of people have a hard time with. which is the fact that such a small percentage of the atmosphere can be so impactful. people hear 280, 350, now 405 parts per million, or that co2 makes up less than .0405% (i just checked my textbook, and it was still at 387 ppm or .0387% :/ ) of the atmosphere and the natural response (based on our own relative scales of numbers) is to go OH THATS NOTHING WHATS THE BIG DEAL.

does anyone have any comparisons, or anecdotes to other things in human life that are small in number, but still have a great impact? for the next time i run into him ;) thanks.
Quoting 50. nrtiwlnvragn:

Observed Tornado





im pretty sure there's more individual tornado warned storms than yesterday already. have seen at least 8-10.

i love when nature does what it wants. and shows us how much we really don't know.

and such a good reminder about not only the complexity of severe storms and tornadoes, but the atmospheric environment that fuels them, and supports them.
Wonder if some of those that stayed are now regretting their decision.

Cyclone Debbie: Dash for safety as storm smashes into coast

Deputy Police Commissioner Stephan Gollschewski said reports of damage were starting to come in, including roof damage at police facilities in the Whitsundays region.

“We’re getting some reports already of roofs starting to lift, including at some of our own facilities in the Whitsundays,” he told ABC television. He warned people they’d be holed up for the entire day on Tuesday, and of concerns for significant flooding in inland areas, as the cyclone degenerates into a rain depression.

” ... we’re modelling for the worst-case scenario.”
Quoting 54. earthisanocean:



im pretty sure there's more individual tornado warned storms than yesterday already. have seen at least 8-10.

i love when nature does what it wants. and shows us how much we really don't know.

and such a good reminder about not only the complexity of severe storms and tornadoes, but the atmospheric environment that fuels them, and supports them.


Experimental Severe Weather Impact Graphics webpage is busy........
that GOES-16/GOES-13 comparison is unreal. so hype for it to go operational.
Quoting 39. 19N81W:

so why are they eliminating the option to comment ?
is it on all blogs or just this one



They aren't. They're removing the whole wunderblog system and migrating staff blogs to another platform. Comments will be Disqus-based, which is much more stable and less buggy than the current system. The loss of wunderblogs sucks, but I'm glad the comment system is getting updated. I just hope the current flow of conversation isn't killed by the way Disqus groups comments.
Quoting 53. earthisanocean:

does anyone have any comparisons, or anecdotes to other things in human life that are small in number, but still have a great impact? for the next time i run into him ;) thanks.

The metal coating on the back of a glass mirror is only ca. 400ppm of the total thickness, so it couldn't possibly have any effect on the transmission of photons...



Quoting 53. earthisanocean:

so i had an argument with a denier a few days ago (old bike courier friend i hadnt seen in a while, told him i was starting to study weather and he very quickly went to the 'oh youre one of those global warming believers arent you) and after much 'debate' we both left each other with a hearty handshake, a laugh, and a 'have fun being brainwashed' line (or something to that effect). but for me anyway, it was deeply unsettling and required more than one gin and tonic at the end of the day.

he straight up didn't think co2 was a heat trapping gas! so that was hard to move on from. but it made me think about one think that i think a lot of people have a hard time with. which is the fact that such a small percentage of the atmosphere can be so impactful. people hear 280, 350, now 405 parts per million, or that co2 makes up less than .0405% (i just checked my textbook, and it was still at 387 ppm or .0387% :/ ) of the atmosphere and the natural response (based on our own relative scales of numbers) is to go OH THATS NOTHING WHATS THE BIG DEAL.

does anyone have any comparisons, or anecdotes to other things in human life that are small in number, but still have a great impact? for the next time i run into him ;) thanks.


Pick your poison.

mamba venom 120 mg biological nervous system
black widow venom 70 mg biological nervous system
formaldehyde 11 mg organic causes cell death
ricin (castor bean) 1.76 mg biological kills cells
VX (nerve gas) 189 mcg organophosphate nervous
tetrodotoxin 25 mcg biological nervous system
mercury 18 mcg element nervous system
botulinum (botulism) 270 ng biological nervous
tetanospasmin (tetanus) 75 ng biological nervous system
Quoting 53. earthisanocean:

so i had an argument with a denier a few days ago (old bike courier friend i hadnt seen in a while, told him i was starting to study weather and he very quickly went to the 'oh youre one of those global warming believers arent you) and after much 'debate' we both left each other with a hearty handshake, a laugh, and a 'have fun being brainwashed' line (or something to that effect). but for me anyway, it was deeply unsettling and required more than one gin and tonic at the end of the day.

he straight up didn't think co2 was a heat trapping gas! so that was hard to move on from. but it made me think about one think that i think a lot of people have a hard time with. which is the fact that such a small percentage of the atmosphere can be so impactful. people hear 280, 350, now 405 parts per million, or that co2 makes up less than .0405% (i just checked my textbook, and it was still at 387 ppm or .0387% :/ ) of the atmosphere and the natural response (based on our own relative scales of numbers) is to go OH THATS NOTHING WHATS THE BIG DEAL.

does anyone have any comparisons, or anecdotes to other things in human life that are small in number, but still have a great impact? for the next time i run into him ;) thanks.
Hmm, well there are lots of things that are devastating in minute concentrations. Many poisons are lethal in small amounts like botulinum and plutonium (actually more poisonous than radioactive). But without a science background and the continual poisoning of the brain by conservatives and religious nuts (which are often the same ones), it's going to be very difficult. maybe if the person likes to fish you could talk about how minute poisons in the water can kill them. Or if they like plants, maybe talk about how boron is needed in small amounts but larger quantities are deadly. Practically anything you can think of is a poison if taken in too large amounts, water, salt, sugar, etc.
Hope that helps a little. It's a tough nut to crack.
Quoting 53. earthisanocean:

so i had an argument with a denier a few days ago (old bike courier friend i hadnt seen in a while, told him i was starting to study weather and he very quickly went to the 'oh youre one of those global warming believers arent you) and after much 'debate' we both left each other with a hearty handshake, a laugh, and a 'have fun being brainwashed' line (or something to that effect). but for me anyway, it was deeply unsettling and required more than one gin and tonic at the end of the day.

he straight up didn't think co2 was a heat trapping gas! so that was hard to move on from. but it made me think about one think that i think a lot of people have a hard time with. which is the fact that such a small percentage of the atmosphere can be so impactful. people hear 280, 350, now 405 parts per million, or that co2 makes up less than .0405% (i just checked my textbook, and it was still at 387 ppm or .0387% :/ ) of the atmosphere and the natural response (based on our own relative scales of numbers) is to go OH THATS NOTHING WHATS THE BIG DEAL.

does anyone have any comparisons, or anecdotes to other things in human life that are small in number, but still have a great impact? for the next time i run into him ;) thanks.

Excerpt from Skeptical Science:

CO2 makes up 390 ppm (0.039%)* of the atmosphere, how can such a small amount be important? Saying that CO2 is "only a trace gas" is like saying that arsenic is "only" a trace water contaminant. Small amounts of very active substances can cause large effects.

Some Examples of Important Small Amounts:

He wasn't driving drunk, he just had a trace of blood alcohol; 800 ppm (0.08%) is the limit in all 50 US states, and limits are lower in most other countries).

Don't worry about your iron deficiency, iron is only 4.4 ppm of your body's atoms (Sterner and Eiser, 2002).

Ireland isn't important; it's only 660 ppm (0.066%) of the world population.

That ibuprofen pill can't do you any good; it's only 3 ppm of your body weight (200 mg in 60 kg person).

The Earth is insignificant, it's only 3 ppm of the mass of the solar system.

Your children can drink that water, it only contains a trace of arsenic (0.01 ppm is the WHO and US EPA limit).

Ozone is only a trace gas: 0.1 ppm is the exposure limit established by the US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends an ozone limit of 0.051 ppm.

A few parts per million of ink can turn a bucket of water blue. The color is caused by the absorption of the yellow/red colors from sunlight, leaving the blue. Twice as much ink causes a much stronger color, even though the total amount is still only a trace relative to water.

Quoting 53. earthisanocean:

so i had an argument with a denier a few days ago (old bike courier friend i hadnt seen in a while, told him i was starting to study weather and he very quickly went to the 'oh youre one of those global warming believers arent you) and after much 'debate' we both left each other with a hearty handshake, a laugh, and a 'have fun being brainwashed' line (or something to that effect). but for me anyway, it was deeply unsettling and required more than one gin and tonic at the end of the day.

he straight up didn't think co2 was a heat trapping gas! so that was hard to move on from. but it made me think about one think that i think a lot of people have a hard time with. which is the fact that such a small percentage of the atmosphere can be so impactful. people hear 280, 350, now 405 parts per million, or that co2 makes up less than .0405% (i just checked my textbook, and it was still at 387 ppm or .0387% :/ ) of the atmosphere and the natural response (based on our own relative scales of numbers) is to go OH THATS NOTHING WHATS THE BIG DEAL.

does anyone have any comparisons, or anecdotes to other things in human life that are small in number, but still have a great impact? for the next time i run into him ;) thanks.


i assume your friend has no problem driving under the influence, since it's "only" .08% BAC.
Quoting 62. Xandra:


Excerpt from Skeptical Science:

CO2 makes up 390 ppm (0.039%)* of the atmosphere, how can such a small amount be important? Saying that CO2 is "only a trace gas" is like saying that arsenic is "only" a trace water contaminant. Small amounts of very active substances can cause large effects.

Some Examples of Important Small Amounts:

He wasn't driving drunk, he just had a trace of blood alcohol; 800 ppm (0.08%) is the limit in all 50 US states, and limits are lower in most other countries).

Don't worry about your iron deficiency, iron is only 4.4 ppm of your body's atoms (Sterner and Eiser, 2002).

Ireland isn't important; it's only 660 ppm (0.066%) of the world population.

That ibuprofen pill can't do you any good; it's only 3 ppm of your body weight (200 mg in 60 kg person).

The Earth is insignificant, it's only 3 ppm of the mass of the solar system.

Your children can drink that water, it only contains a trace of arsenic (0.01 ppm is the WHO and US EPA limit).

Ozone is only a trace gas: 0.1 ppm is the exposure limit established by the US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends an ozone limit of 0.051 ppm.

A few parts per million of ink can turn a bucket of water blue. The color is caused by the absorption of the yellow/red colors from sunlight, leaving the blue. Twice as much ink causes a much stronger color, even though the total amount is still only a trace relative to water.




hahaha thanks all. that ireland bit made me laugh out loud. back to the weather at hand!
Quoting 53. earthisanocean:

so i had an argument with a denier a few days ago (old bike courier friend i hadnt seen in a while, told him i was starting to study weather and he very quickly went to the 'oh youre one of those global warming believers arent you) and after much 'debate' we both left each other with a hearty handshake, a laugh, and a 'have fun being brainwashed' line (or something to that effect). but for me anyway, it was deeply unsettling and required more than one gin and tonic at the end of the day.

he straight up didn't think co2 was a heat trapping gas! so that was hard to move on from. but it made me think about one think that i think a lot of people have a hard time with. which is the fact that such a small percentage of the atmosphere can be so impactful. people hear 280, 350, now 405 parts per million, or that co2 makes up less than .0405% (i just checked my textbook, and it was still at 387 ppm or .0387% :/ ) of the atmosphere and the natural response (based on our own relative scales of numbers) is to go OH THATS NOTHING WHATS THE BIG DEAL.

does anyone have any comparisons, or anecdotes to other things in human life that are small in number, but still have a great impact? for the next time i run into him ;) thanks.


Hand Him a Bible and a Carton of Marlboro and offer, good luck breaux'

WU is kind of crap anyways, the local weather part of the website is not great and accurate, the comment section while informative is a mess, for example you have to wait like 24 hours from creating an account just to comment
Mallory Clouse‏ @_malloryclouse 1h1 hour ago

@WTVAmatt Fulton, MS



Link
Quoting 65. Patrap:

Hand Him a Bible and a Carton of Marlboro and offer, good luck breaux'


The trouble with non-scientists is that they don't understand thresholds. The Bible won't kill you in small amounts and those cigs are harmless if you take ten years to smoke them.
Quoting 66. Icybubba:

WU is kind of crap [...] for example you have to wait like 24 hours from creating an account just to comment


Does that happen to you often?
138 mph wind gust recorded on hamilton island, as per MET OFFICE (UK) twitter feed.
Quoting 67. Envoirment:

Mallory Clouse‏ @_malloryclouse 1h1 hour ago

@WTVAmatt Fulton, MS



Link


kinda looks like scud to me

Here is the current wu Member Terms of Service agreement,..

be advised, long time members..

This privacy policy went into effect on May 18, 2016.


#5 MONITORING. WUI shall have the right in its sole discretion to refuse to post or remove any material submitted to or posted on the site. Without limiting the foregoing, WUI shall have the right, but not the obligation, to remove any material we in our sole discretion, find to be in violation of the provisions hereof or otherwise objectionable. However, any opinions, advice, statements, services, offers, or other information or content expressed or made available by third parties, including information providers and users, are those of the respective author(s) or distributor(s) and not that of WUI.
Quoting 66. Icybubba:

WU is kind of crap anyways, the local weather part of the website is not great and accurate, the comment section while informative is a mess, for example you have to wait like 24 hours from creating an account just to comment
That's true, the local weather is not very accurate but does lend itself to links that are, such as the scientific discussion pages for your region. I'm sure Masters sold this thing to TWC for a bundle and made him well off. This is the way unique start-ups get bought off and make the founders rich. Do they really care about you, the little user? Not much. IBM bean counters will now rule. But you know the trouble with bean counters? They have no vision.
Jim Edds:
@ExtremeStorms

Jetstar Airbus 320 [JST966] taking the long way from Gold Coast to Cairns #CycloneDebbie



Flightradar24: Playback of Jetstar Airways flight JQ966 / JST966

Re DocNDswamp's comment #38:

Old English word of the day: hrycg - a back of a man or animal. Pronounced "hrudge".
Quoting 74. Xandra:

Jim Edds:
@ExtremeStorms

Jetstar Airbus 320 [JST966] taking the long way from Gold Coast to Cairns #CycloneDebbie



Flightradar24: Playback of Jetstar Airways flight JQ966 / JST966




Most def a deflection to the "Bob and Weave" Maneuver there.
Wendi Day🌪‏ @5stormchasers 3h3 hours ago

@WTVAjohn Pic of tornado earlier near Theo, MS!



Link
Quoting 66. Icybubba:

WU is kind of crap anyways, the local weather part of the website is not great and accurate, the comment section while informative is a mess, for example you have to wait like 24 hours from creating an account just to comment


we like to call that extreme vetting.
Quoting 79. daddyjames:



we like to call that extreme vetting.


Remember, even Heaven has a wall, a Gate, and very extreme vetting.

Quoting 79. daddyjames:



we like to call that extreme vetting.
The person is right though, the local pages are in terrible shape and basically only good for current conditions...uh, wups, not even that come to think of it. It's not too bad though, they can usually get the temperature right at least 75-80% of the time.
Yeah, it's a shambles and I'm exiting. Have a good one.
Quoting 78. Envoirment:

Wendi Day%uD83C%uDF2A%u200F @5stormchasers 3h3 hours ago

@WTVAjohn Pic of tornado earlier near Theo, MS!


Brief video of the same tornado:




Click the link if it doesn't embed properly.

P.S: I hope when the changes to WU occur, things will embed properly and the pages will load faster.
Link

really picking up in midge point as the souther side of the eye comes through
Debbie - several hours ago, near sunrise (2017-03-27 20:30 UTC) - natural color:

Source: RAMMB-CIRA/Himawari-8 Link.
More recent imagery: Himawari-8 10 Minute Floater 1 Band 3 / RAMSDIS Online Archive Link
Quoting 53. earthisanocean:

so i had an argument with a denier a few days ago (old bike courier friend i hadnt seen in a while, told him i was starting to study weather and he very quickly went to the 'oh youre one of those global warming believers arent you) and after much 'debate' we both left each other with a hearty handshake, a laugh, and a 'have fun being brainwashed' line (or something to that effect). but for me anyway, it was deeply unsettling and required more than one gin and tonic at the end of the day.

he straight up didn't think co2 was a heat trapping gas! so that was hard to move on from. but it made me think about one think that i think a lot of people have a hard time with. which is the fact that such a small percentage of the atmosphere can be so impactful. people hear 280, 350, now 405 parts per million, or that co2 makes up less than .0405% (i just checked my textbook, and it was still at 387 ppm or .0387% :/ ) of the atmosphere and the natural response (based on our own relative scales of numbers) is to go OH THATS NOTHING WHATS THE BIG DEAL.

does anyone have any comparisons, or anecdotes to other things in human life that are small in number, but still have a great impact? for the next time i run into him ;) thanks.


There are lots of instances where small amounts of something can radically affect complex systems. Where a person of 80 kilograms sinks 100 micrograms of LSD (the LSD would, if completely absorbed, represent 0.00000000125 % of the mass of the person), quite dramatic effects are noted reliably.

That example seems to point toward a general principle along the lines of "The more complex the system, the more likely it may show radical changes with very particular inputs that are seemingly of vanishingly small consequence".

I can't remember atm who I am quoting, but someone once said something along the lines of "Never underestimate what a small dedicated group of people can achieve." ...

But even single individuals have changed the nature of western, at least, society.... Freud, his nephew (and founder of "Public Relations", which term he chose over 'propaganda' because the latter had negative connotations) Eddie Bernays, Tesla, Ayn Rand, Einstein, Bill Gates and many many others. Each was one of billions.

But in fact your friend is probably under the spell of one of the alternative reality meme-clusters, and the Trumpian set are especially resistant to reason and logic. "The earth is flat, gahdammit, and all you have to do is stand out in a Kansas hayfield and you can see it for yourself!"
Quoting 81. Xandra:

James Reynolds on Periscope: Cyclone Debbie strong winds battering Airlie Beach in Queensland Australia



Looks like Reynolds at Airlie Beach is at the right spot for landfall = worst impact:
Visible loop link

Twitter feed.
Quoting 52. 999Ai2016:

Sun's rising, Himawari-8 10 Minute Floater 1 Band 3 is back.

Himawari is just stunning (loop).

And here a Guardian live-blog on Debbie
18hr loop of Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie.



Notice the wind direction change. Hamilton Island Wx Obs

The Gate of Hell: Fiery crater that has been burning since 1971 in Turkmenistan

The Gate of Hell was created in 1971 when a Soviet drilling rig accidentally punched into a massive underground natural gas cavern, causing the ground to collapse and the entire drilling rig to fall in. Having punctured a pocket of gas, poisonous fumes began leaking at an alarming rate. To head off a potential environmental catastrophe, the Soviets set the hole alight. The crater hasn’t stopped burning since.

Quoting 83. Patrap:




I'm no better off than you, are, Patrap, FWIW. And I'm in Houston---where nobody does anything right!
Atlantic ITCZ/Monsoon trof is lifting North

first time for year all of it is above the Equator

Tropical Wave season soon to Start IMO




Atlantic ITCZ is starting out active




African Monsoon trof already at or above 10N

and its also active

Currently @ Hamilton Island
183km/h sustained winds and 263km/h wind gusts.

*This reading is at 58.8m above sea level*
Quoting 98. wunderkidcayman:

Atlantic ITCZ/Monsoon trof is lifting North

first time for year all of it is above the Equator

Tropical Wave season soon to Start IMO




Atlantic ITCZ is starting out active




African Monsoon trof already at or above 10N

and its also active




convective line of the African Monsoon is centered at 5N while on Sfc charts the trof centered 10N

Source.
Quoting 103. barbamz:

Source.

Looks like Debbie is making landfall now:

Screenshot / 2017-03-28 00:30 UTC. Source
BOM has Debbie at 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots now in their
"FLASH" advice statement.
Water wapor with Airlie Beach in the eye: LINK
Quoting 53. earthisanocean:

does anyone have any comparisons, or anecdotes to other things in human life that are small in number, but still have a great impact? for the next time i run into him ;) thanks.


So, I did some further poking around. Only because I am covering Neuromuscular junctions in my class and talking about the effects of different toxins inducing muscle paralysis.

I used VX toxin as an example, as this was just in the news regarding the assassination of Kim Jong-Un's half-brother.

The Immediate Danger to Life and Health (IDLH) of VX toxin as a gas (not the method used in the assassination) is 0.002 ppm. For comparison, sarin is 0.03 ppm.

Not necessarily the best analogy, I know. But illustrative that you don't have to have a lot of something to induce an effect - an extremely negative effect at that!

Source: Detection Technologies for Chemical Warfare Agents and Toxic Vapors. 2004. Yin Sun, Kwok Y. Ong. CRC Press.

Addendum: IDLH is the concentration of a chemical in air that causes immediate or delayed permanent adverse health effects after 30 minutes of unprotected exposure.
time: 12:00 PM EST
position: 20.2S 148.7E
10 min winds: 100 knots
wind gusts: 140 knots

The cyclone is beginning to make landfall on the mainland between Bowen and Airlie Beach, and will move gradually inland through this afternoon and evening. As the system moves inland, the peak winds near the center will begin to weaken.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence, including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, Moranbah, and Pentland of Queensland
German word for the day. Pronounced just the way it is spelled. It is a term for the law following the regulation of beef.



Rindfleischetikettierungsüberwachungsaufgabenüb ertragungsgesetz.



Rindfleischetikettierungsüberwachungsaufgabenüb ertragungsgesetz

That little"space" is where you stop and catch your breath in the middle of the word right?



Quoting 118. SunnyDaysFla:


Rindfleischetikettierungsüberwachungsaufgabenüb ertragungsgesetz

That little"space" is where you stop and catch your breath in the middle of the word right?






No actually it is all one word. I don't know why there is a space. But ask Barb, it really is a word. The only bad thing, is that it takes so long to get the word out, the beef has already gone bad.

Mail by the way!
Rindfleischetikettierungsüberwachungsaufgabenüber tragungsgesetz

Is that worse than a sore throat?
Quoting 53. earthisanocean:

so i had an argument with a denier a few days ago (old bike courier friend i hadnt seen in a while, told him i was starting to study weather and he very quickly went to the 'oh youre one of those global warming believers arent you) and after much 'debate' we both left each other with a hearty handshake, a laugh, and a 'have fun being brainwashed' line (or something to that effect). but for me anyway, it was deeply unsettling and required more than one gin and tonic at the end of the day.

he straight up didn't think co2 was a heat trapping gas! so that was hard to move on from. but it made me think about one think that i think a lot of people have a hard time with. which is the fact that such a small percentage of the atmosphere can be so impactful. people hear 280, 350, now 405 parts per million, or that co2 makes up less than .0405% (i just checked my textbook, and it was still at 387 ppm or .0387% :/ ) of the atmosphere and the natural response (based on our own relative scales of numbers) is to go OH THATS NOTHING WHATS THE BIG DEAL.

does anyone have any comparisons, or anecdotes to other things in human life that are small in number, but still have a great impact? for the next time i run into him ;) thanks.

There are a lot of good suggestions from others but the one I always fall back on is that if you are in a room with a concentration of 200 ppm of hydrogen cyanide you will be dead in a matter of minutes.
Off-topic news story for barbamz in comment #1193 of my blog.
Quoting 121. BaltimoreBrian:

Latest news stories:

Michigan to pay $97 million in Flint lawsuit settlement

In executive order to be issued March 28th, Trump to dramatically change US approach to climate change


it's going to take years, and billions of dollars, to recover from the damage this fool is going to inflict on our country. At least we will have a $50 billion dollar wall to protect us against the rapidly changing climate.
126. MahFL
Convection intensified on the SW side of Debbie after she came ashore.

updated sfc charts Atlantic ITCZ/monsoon trof still moving N now fully above Equator
128. MahFL
The Bowen radar went down.
Link
My severe weather video for today.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #45
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY FOUR (24U)
2:00 PM EST March 28 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Four located at 20.1S 148.8E or 45 km southeast of Bowen and 15 km north of Proserpine has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is a category 4 cyclone. The system is forecast to move slowly southwest over the next 12 to 18 hours before curving to a more southerly track over inland Queensland. The cyclone is making landfall on the mainland near Airlie Beach, and will move gradually inland through this afternoon and evening. As the system moves inland, the peak winds near the center will begin to weaken rapidly.

Recent significant wind gust observations include:

- 262 km/h at Hamilton Island airport at 10:30 am

- 165 km/h at Proserpine Airport 12:57 am

- 148 km/h at Bowen Airport at 1:35 pm

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Debbie is now impacting the Whitsunday Islands and the nearby mainland. The center of the system is making landfall on mainland coast between Bowen and Airlie Beach with wind gusts potentially to 230 km/h near the center.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are occurring about the coast and islands between about Cape Upstart and Midge Point, including Bowen and Proserpine, and will extend further along the coast to areas between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough (north of Mackay) during this afternoon. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further northwest along the coast to Ayr and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville, and Mount Coolon late today into this evening. Destructive winds are no longer expected in Townsville, Charters Towers, Mackay or Sarina.

GALES are now occurring about the coast and islands between about Cape Bowling Green and Sarina. These GALES are expected to extend to the remaining coastal and island areas between Townsville and St Lawrence later today. GALES could potentially extend further north to Lucinda and further inland to locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland, Mount Coolon, and Moranbah this afternoon and tonight.

Residents between Abbot Point and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding have developed around the Central Coast and Whitsundays district. These heavy rain areas are expected to spread further inland through central and southeastern Queensland. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150-250 mm are expected, with significantly higher totals possible locally. This is likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area this week, and a Flood Watch for coastal catchments between Ayr and the north southwestern border, extending inland to parts of the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Central West, Maranoa and Warrego, and Darling Downs and Granite Belt forecast districts.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Townsville to St Lawrence, including Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, Moranbah, and Pentland of Queensland
Just got this from my local NWS:

Winter is NOT over yet. Snow returns Tue into Wed & will change driving conditions across Southcentral. Ice & snow? Take it slow. #AKwx

I don't care if I die, I wanna be here. This is hot.

Question:

When it comes to forecasting Tx. weather, does the Texas Tech Forecast model overrule the GFS and the Euro? How seriously should it be taken? Anybody have an opinion?
Quoting 133. pureet1948:

Question:

When it comes to forecasting Tx. weather, does the Texas Tech Forecast model overrule the GFS and the Euro? How seriously should it be taken? Anybody have an opinion?


There's no official computer model with that name.
Quoting 133. pureet1948:

Question:

When it comes to forecasting Tx. weather, does the Texas Tech Forecast model overrule the GFS and the Euro? How seriously should it be taken? Anybody have an opinion?


The Sam-Houston Institute of Technology model super cedes them all.

Quoting 131. Dakster:

Just got this from my local NWS:

Winter is NOT over yet. Snow returns Tue into Wed & will change driving conditions across Southcentral. Ice & snow? Take it slow. #AKwx




Hey, Dak. Do you enjoy summer in Alaska. I mean both days? :):)
Quoting 136. Grothar:



Hey, Dak. Do you enjoy summer in Alaska. I mean both days? :):)


No... Last year the one day of summer was too hot and I ended up in the hospital...
Quoting 62. Xandra:


Excerpt from Skeptical Science:

CO2 makes up 390 ppm (0.039%)* of the atmosphere, how can such a small amount be important? Saying that CO2 is "only a trace gas" is like saying that arsenic is "only" a trace water contaminant. Small amounts of very active substances can cause large effects.

Some Examples of Important Small Amounts:

He wasn't driving drunk, he just had a trace of blood alcohol; 800 ppm (0.08%) is the limit in all 50 US states, and limits are lower in most other countries).

Don't worry about your iron deficiency, iron is only 4.4 ppm of your body's atoms (Sterner and Eiser, 2002).

Ireland isn't important; it's only 660 ppm (0.066%) of the world population.

That ibuprofen pill can't do you any good; it's only 3 ppm of your body weight (200 mg in 60 kg person).

The Earth is insignificant, it's only 3 ppm of the mass of the solar system.

Your children can drink that water, it only contains a trace of arsenic (0.01 ppm is the WHO and US EPA limit).

Ozone is only a trace gas: 0.1 ppm is the exposure limit established by the US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends an ozone limit of 0.051 ppm.

A few parts per million of ink can turn a bucket of water blue. The color is caused by the absorption of the yellow/red colors from sunlight, leaving the blue. Twice as much ink causes a much stronger color, even though the total amount is still only a trace relative to water.




A sperm cell is insignificantly tiny compared to the average human male, yet one "mistake" can affect you for the rest of your life.
Quoting 137. Dakster:



No... Last year the one day of summer was too hot and I ended up in the hospital...


Man, that's rough. :(
Quoting 135. Dakster:



The Sam-Houston Institute of Technology model super cedes them all.


Quoting 134. KoritheMan:



There's no official computer model with that name.


Then it's not like the GFS or Euro? I'm asking because the 00z run of the GFS seems to have backed off of the severe weather scenario for Houston---IF I'm looking at it right, that is. Am I?
Quoting 140. pureet1948:



Then it's not like the GFS or Euro? I'm asking because the 00z run of the GFS seems to have backed off of the severe weather scenario for Houston---IF I'm looking at it right, that is. Am I?


Just to glaze over what I think about weather models in general.

I haven't looked at the global models for your area (GFS and Euro being global models) -- but I can say this. Models are not perfect. Sometime they are accurate, sometimes not. A Forecaster can use all the models, experience, and training to make a forecast that is hopefully better than a model run. I find that even forecasters in AK have a hard time with AK. A lot of times even the forecasters are way off....

More specific models are better are doing specific tasks than the global models. Like Hurricane models. And even then, forecasters use a whole array of models as the average of many models seems to be statistically more accurate than any one model.

P.S. I'm not a met and have no weather training. These are just some lay person, weather enthusiast observations.
Quoting 139. KoritheMan:



Man, that's rough. :(


I'm still above ground so it's all good.
Quoting 141. Dakster:



Just to glaze over what I think about weather models in general.

I haven't looked at the global models for your area (GFS and Euro being global models) -- but I can say this. Models are not perfect. Sometime they are accurate, sometimes not. A Forecaster can use all the models, experience, and training to make a forecast that is hopefully better than a model run. I find that even forecasters in AK have a hard time with AK. A lot of times even the forecasters are way off....

More specific models are better are doing specific tasks than the global models. Like Hurricane models. And even then, forecasters use a whole array of models as the average of many models seems to be statistically more accurate than any one model.

P.S. I'm not a met and have no weather training. These are just some lay person, weather enthusiast observations.


Okay. The models are just educated guesses.
time: 3:00 PM EST
position: 20.3S 148.5E
10 min winds: 85 knots
wind gusts: 120 knots

Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is a category 3 cyclone. The system is forecast to move slowly southwest over the next 12 to 18 hours before curving to a more southerly track over inland Queensland. The cyclone made landfall near Airlie Beach around midday and has started weakening as it moves slowly inland. The system is expected to move further inland this afternoon and evening, and the peak winds near the center will weaken rapidly. However, heavy rain is expected to continue across the region.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Townsville to St Lawrence, including Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, Moranbah, and Pentland of Queensland
Quoting 141. Dakster:



Just to glaze over what I think about weather models in general.

I haven't looked at the global models for your area (GFS and Euro being global models) -- but I can say this. Models are not perfect. Sometime they are accurate, sometimes not. A Forecaster can use all the models, experience, and training to make a forecast that is hopefully better than a model run. I find that even forecasters in AK have a hard time with AK. A lot of times even the forecasters are way off....

More specific models are better are doing specific tasks than the global models. Like Hurricane models. And even then, forecasters use a whole array of models as the average of many models seems to be statistically more accurate than any one model.

P.S. I'm not a met and have no weather training. These are just some lay person, weather enthusiast observations.


Moral: trust no model.
Quoting 138. Xyrus2000:



A sperm cell is insignificantly tiny compared to the average human male, yet one "mistake" can affect you for the rest of your life.


Crap. He went there. :o
Distracting a bit from the mighty Debbie.
A mini storm in the Mediterreniean. Could that be Arlene!?
151. elioe
Quoting 148. Uragani:

Distracting a bit from the mighty Debbie.
A mini storm in the Mediterreniean. Could that be Arlene!?



Seems to coincide with the end of a front. Models show spin in low levels, and a circulation at 500 mbar, but no low pressure center. And no low is expected to form. And even if it would form into a tropical/subtropical cyclone, it wouldn't get a name from Atlantic list. Or any another official list.
GFS at 168...Could be serious flooding...

BOM Queensland:
@BOM_Qld

Whilst #CycloneDebbie rages on one side of the state, #Camooweal had its hottest March day on record with a top of 42.9°C! #QldWeather

GOES-16 Loop of the Day

2017/03/27 - Storms producing very large hail in Texas and Oklahoma on 3/26 - Band 13 IR

Good morning abroad, and thoughts to the Aussies still pounded by "Debbie" ...

Cyclone Debbie: Queensland police fear fatalities with extent of damage unclear
Guardian, Tuesday 28 March 2017 08.12 BST
Slow-moving category-four storm hits Australia’s north-east but it will be at least a day before destruction can be assessed ...

Besides Debbie:

Iconic Jamaican beach vanishing as pollution, climate change take a toll
by Rebekah Kebede | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Monday, 27 March 2017 01:01 GMT
Pollution and warmer temperatures have killed reefs off the shore of Hellshire Beach, allowing waves to pound it and wash away the sand ...

Sunshine state shuns solar as overcast New York basks in clean energy boom
Guardian, Monday 27 March 2017 08.00 BST
Despite its natural advantages, disincentives mean Florida has few solar panels but the Empire state’s policies have boosted installed solar capacity by 800% ...

Why I decided to write a novel for teenagers about catastrophic climate change
James Bradley, Monday 27 March 2017 00.23 BST
James Bradley is an author and critic. His novels include Wrack, The Resurrectionist, Clade and The Silent Invasion. The Silent Invasion is set in the age of environmental apocalypse, where even the landscape is frightening. But writing about climate change matters – most of all for those who will inherit the world ...

Interview: Next 50 years will determine humanity's outcome "for 10,000 years"
by Alex Whiting | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Monday, 27 March 2017 12:26 GMT

Trump to sign order sweeping away Obama-era climate policies
by Reuters, Tuesday, 28 March 2017 03:00 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump will sign an executive order on Tuesday to undo a slew of Obama-era climate change regulations, a move meant to bolster domestic energy production but which environmentalists have vowed to challenge in court. ...
Quoting 151. elioe:



Seems to coincide with the end of a front. Models show spin in low levels, and a circulation at 500 mbar, but no low pressure center. And no low is expected to form. And even if it would form into a tropical/subtropical cyclone, it wouldn't get a name from Atlantic list. Or any another official list.



Notice a stream/"river" of clouds from Cape Verde to the mini Meditiranian storm. [so tempted to call 'her' Arlina]

Quoting 113. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Keep, you got WU-mail. :-)
Quoting 156. Uragani:




Notice a stream/"river" of clouds from Cape Verde to the mini Meditiranian storm. [so tempted to call 'her' Arlina]



Are any of the models developing it?
Quoting 153. Xandra:

BOM Queensland:
@BOM_Qld

Whilst #CycloneDebbie rages on one side of the state, #Camooweal had its hottest March day on record with a top of 42.9°C! #QldWeather




Makes me quite sad. Ten years ago I was in Australia and specifically in the Whitsunday islands. In fact I've got a framed photo of Whitehaven beach on Whitsunday island in my living room. Visited Hamilton island and Airlie beach.

Fantastic, beautiful place and I hope the area can rebuild. My thoughts are with them today.
looks like an area getting the severe weather Kansas ext are also getting much needed soaking
Don't do models. Good question though. Simply pointing at point-blank reality.
Quoting 158. Icybubba:


Are any of the models developing it?

Meant to display it this way:
Quoting 96. BaltimoreBrian:

The Gate of Hell: Fiery crater that has been burning since 1971 in Turkmenistan

The Gate of Hell was created in 1971 when a Soviet drilling rig accidentally punched into a massive underground natural gas cavern, causing the ground to collapse and the entire drilling rig to fall in. Having punctured a pocket of gas, poisonous fumes began leaking at an alarming rate. To head off a potential environmental catastrophe, the Soviets set the hole alight. The crater hasn’t stopped burning since.




Buh...buh... but humans cannot change the environment...
I am really wondering where Hurricane Matthews TCR is.... I bet it is taking a VERRRY long time for good reasons as that hurricane was so complex and had a path through 4 different countries.... but has there ever been a case in which the WMO retires a storm and its Post Season Analysis is not out?

It deserved to be retired.... Otto for its shear rareness of a major hurricane strike in Costa Rica.

I think Matthew strengthened up until landfall in Haiti, and it seemed to strengthen before its SC Landfall.

I hope Queensland fared well.... nothing good usually comes from a Cat 3 Equivalent storm. :(
Good Morning.  Now we wait for news out of Australia in terms of damage, and hopefully no fatalities, when Debbie stalled and pounded the coast before moving ashore.  The current run of the floater loop below seems to start right around the time the core crossed the coast.  Already starting to dissipate inland but that feeder band is probably going to cycle in and cause more flooding:

This is the link to the close-up doppler radar over there, at Abbot Point, which appears to be right near where the core came ashore; don't know if their Met Site kept this loop up for posterity but based on the fact that it stops about the time that the core reached Abbot, and that it is not showing the current storm inland, I am wondering if the storm took the actual doppler site offline; either way, this is a clear record of the intensification process right up towards landfalll:


Cyclone Debbie: Five tales of the storm
BBC, 1 hour ago

Aaawww ...

No doubt the Aussie wildlife has seen this kind of thing many times before, but this image of a battered cockatoo certainly captured the attention of the media. ... Photo: Alix Sweeney. Source and more see link above.


Cyclone Debbie 'screaming and howling'
And here the current last warning from JTWC as to the most recent position:

WTPS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 148.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY FROM
TOWNSVILLE INDICATES TC DEBBIE HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS MOVING
FURTHER INLAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DEDUCED FROM NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN, DISSIPATING BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN
Based on the loop below, it looks like the center of the circulation crossed the coast somewhere between Arlie Beach and Hideaway Point after battering Hayman Island for several hours when it slowed down.
And in terms of Conus, here is the current forecast and look: Dem Damn Lows...............................



And the storm reports from yesterday; the current jet seems to be headed into Texas later so it will probably get real bumpy again later this afternoon between the jet and PM heating in terms of the t-storms; however, there is not much (if any) warm Gulf flow at the moment so there should not be a huge tornado threat. 

/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE11.GIF
yesterday Reports Graphic

cyclone debbies backside is carrying alot of heavy precip.
Peru floods: Four killed as Piura bursts its banks
BBC, 1 hour ago
Four people have drowned after the river Piura burst its banks in the north of Peru and caused extensive flooding. More than 500 people were evacuated from rooftops in the town of Catacaos after flood water levels rose to 1.80m (5ft 9in). Hundreds of residents are still waiting to be taken to safety, local media reports.
The Piura river flooded after 15 hours of heavy rains on the weekend. ...



Photo Reuters, from the article above.

GFS seems to want to develop it, also does anyone have a better way of sharing a picture than saving it from tropical tidbits and then putting it on imgur and then sharing here?
img src="">
Ok let me try this
Here is one short blurb on Debbie's land fall from ABC news with a pic:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-28/cyclo ne-debbie-residents-recount-damage-as-storm-hits/8 393540

During: Cyclone Debbie hammers Hamilton Island


Long-time local Gail Harvey said conditions there were worsening.

"Horrendous in 30 years I've been through a lot of cyclones on Hamilton Island. One year we had five cyclones one after the other and in recent years we've had some big ones but this one is just staying around and not moving," she said.

"Debbie is not going to have a good name around Whitsundays for a while."

Eva Martinez has been stranded on Hamilton Island for the past 48 hours and said the wind had been unbearable.

"The wind was crazy at that time, we can't see anything, and it's moving boom, boom very fast," she said.

Further south, Corinne Dibnah was evacuated from the Bowen Golf Club and said she had to take her dogs to a local motel.

"At the moment, it is horrendous. I've not seen it like this, ever."


img src="">

I am sure someone already showed this, but the Euro also wants to develop it
In executive order, Trump to dramatically change US approach to climate change

"It is an issue that deserves attention," the official said of climate change. "But I think the President has been very clear that he is not going to pursue climate change policies that put the US economy at risk. It is very simple."
Another share on flooding remediation in advance of spring melt:

A drone flies over excavation work on the Carson River in early February
Gov. Brian Sandoval visited Churchill County on Friday on a fact-finding trip to learn more about flood mitigation efforts in the Lahontan Valley.



This is the reservoir up the road (and a bit uphill) from our farm. They started filling it back in February, it doesn't usually look like this until April. Two years ago, it only looked like this for about six weeks.
But the economy will be disrupted once climate change takes hold...
Quoting 180. RitaEvac:

But the economy will be disrupted once climate change takes hold...

Whose economy? Not that of those now in govt power whose goal is to take out as many dollars as possible from an industry they too know is dying.
Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms in Texas and Oklahoma today!






Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST TX AND
FAR SOUTHWEST OK...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL OK TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OK/TX...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS VA/NC...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms are expected across the southern Great
Plains, mainly after 2 pm CDT into tonight. Very large hail,
tornadoes, and damaging winds will be possible.

...Synopsis...
Vigorous shortwave trough over eastern AZ will shift east and reach
the southern High Plains by early Wednesday. Surface cyclone over
the Permian Basin will move northeast into northwest TX and become
quasi-stationary. By late afternoon, a bulging dryline will sharpen
to the south of this cyclone. A Pacific cold front will overtake the
dryline in west Texas this evening and sweep east into central Texas
overnight. A warm front will advance across northern TX and should
arc from the cyclone across the Red River into eastern OK by 00Z.

...Southern Great Plains...
Rich gulf moisture characterized by mean mixing ratios to 14 g/kg
per 12Z Del Rio, Corpus Christi, and Lake Charles RAOBs has become
prevalent in the broadening warm sector over central/south TX. While
diurnal mixing may yield pockets of lower dew points over
central/east TX, a plume of lower to middle 60s surface dew points
will be sustained along the dryline and warm front. Beneath a stout
EML with very steep lapse rates to 9 degree C/km from 700-500 mb per
12Z Del Rio RAOB, moderate to large buoyancy is expected ahead of
the dryline. MLCAPE should reach 1500-3000 J/kg across the Edwards
Plateau and Big Country. The leading edge of 50-kt 500-mb
south-southwesterlies will spread east over this instability axis by
late afternoon, yielding an environment favorable for supercells.

While elevated storms will increase over the Texas Panhandle through
midday, surface-based storms should develop towards mid-afternoon
near the surface cyclone. Scattered storms will form farther south
along the dryline late afternoon, with WAA-driven storms possible
farther east over north-central TX. Initially discrete supercell
mode should favor very large hail and localized severe wind gusts.
Relatively high confidence in the coverage and location of storms
warrants an upgrade to a hail-driven moderate risk from the Big
Country into southwest OK. A few tornadic storms appear probable in
this similar corridor. However, the temporal overlap of discrete
cells with enlarging hodographs may be relatively short in the open
warm sector. Low-level hodographs will be quite enlarged along the
warm front, but should be coincident with modest low-level lapse
rates and predominant cluster to linear mode. As such, an upgrade to
15 percent tornado probabilities does not appeared warranted this
outlook.

As storms mature, upscale growth into lines with embedded bowing
segments is expected due to both the strong large-scale ascent and
meridional flow aloft generally paralleling the dryline. These
linear bands should accelerate northeast into southern/central
Oklahoma during the evening, with attendant risks for damaging
winds, hail, and a couple tornadoes.

Farther south over the Edwards Plateau, initially isolated to widely
scattered late afternoon/early evening storms should become
widespread in coverage during mid-late evening as the Pacific front
merges with the dryline. This should result in a predominant risk of
large hail transitioning quickly to strong to severe wind gusts. An
extensive squall line will likely evolve east overnight with an
isolated severe risk spreading into central TX.

...VA/NC...
A dampening shortwave impulse over WV will shift off the VA/NC coast
by mid-evening. Ongoing showers and isolated storms will subdue
destabilization early in the diurnal heating cycle. However, by late
afternoon, widely scattered storms should develop ahead of the
impulse. Increased veering of the wind profile with height should
foster mainly discrete cells, some of which should weakly rotate.
Isolated severe hail and damaging wind appear possible.

Quote of the day: The only thing we have to fear is fear itself! -FDR during his 1933 Inauguration and The Clown from Star Trek Voyager: Season 2 Episode 23
Rapid global warming (climate change) is here and now and the impacts are worldwide as the Arctic as we know it (and the Antarctic) continue to break own and deteriorate.  However in the large scale of things, and in terms of the larger industrial counties with a large geographic area and better financial resources, they will adapt and survive.  The bigger problem is going to be with the smaller, and unstable/economically poor, countries of the world that cannot implement infrastructure changes who will be faced with issues like a) loss of fresh drinking water from snow pack; b) pervasive drought or pervasive flooding leading to mass crop failures; c) sea level rise if you are dealing with coastal or low lying countries, d) and general recovery from extreme weather events including the effects of prolonged El Nino conditions.
At that point, climate change highlights the global condition of the "haves vs. have nots" and whether we let people die around the world, continue to fund global relief efforts when disaster strikes, and/or cut those less fortunate off from any help and/or resettlement or migration (the climate change refugee issue)......................Tough decisions to be made all around in the coming decades.    
My point is that whether this current Administration funds climate change mitigation and research or not, the United States is still in a much better position than most of the world (in the short-term anyway) in terms of weathering through the current impacts................I thank God everyday that I live here if you want to know my personal feelings regardless of the current political situation..............Just Sayin; the poor and disenfranchised people of the world are basically sitting ducks when it comes to climate change issues.
Quoting 133. pureet1948:

Question:

When it comes to forecasting Tx. weather, does the Texas Tech Forecast model overrule the GFS and the Euro? How seriously should it be taken? Anybody have an opinion?


Not familiar with the texas tech model. I usually look to the GFS down to the 24 hour time scale, then the NAM to six hours and HRRR below that time scale. Consistency between the models and tight spread between their ensemble members is a clue they've got a good handle on a situation but the GFS is not going to get county scale organized convection right.. doing this 12-24 hours out is still outside of our capabilities. NAM and HRRR do better there.
This is the story of how one species changed a Planet.





Quoting 155. barbamz:

Good morning abroad, and thoughts to the Aussies still pounded by "Debbie" ...

Cyclone Debbie: Queensland police fear fatalities with extent of damage unclear
Guardian, Tuesday 28 March 2017 08.12 BST
Slow-moving category-four storm hits Australia’s north-east but it will be at least a day before destruction can be assessed ...

Besides Debbie:

Iconic Jamaican beach vanishing as pollution, climate change take a toll
by Rebekah Kebede | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Monday, 27 March 2017 01:01 GMT
Pollution and warmer temperatures have killed reefs off the shore of Hellshire Beach, allowing waves to pound it and wash away the sand ...

Sunshine state shuns solar as overcast New York basks in clean energy boom
Guardian, Monday 27 March 2017 08.00 BST
Despite its natural advantages, disincentives mean Florida has few solar panels but the Empire state’s policies have boosted installed solar capacity by 800% ...

Why I decided to write a novel for teenagers about catastrophic climate change
James Bradley, Monday 27 March 2017 00.23 BST
James Bradley is an author and critic. His novels include Wrack, The Resurrectionist, Clade and The Silent Invasion. The Silent Invasion is set in the age of environmental apocalypse, where even the landscape is frightening. But writing about climate change matters – most of all for those who will inherit the world ...

Interview: Next 50 years will determine humanity's outcome "for 10,000 years"
by Alex Whiting | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Monday, 27 March 2017 12:26 GMT

Trump to sign order sweeping away Obama-era climate policies
by Reuters, Tuesday, 28 March 2017 03:00 GMT
U.S. President Donald Trump will sign an executive order on Tuesday to undo a slew of Obama-era climate change regulations, a move meant to bolster domestic energy production but which environmentalists have vowed to challenge in court. ...


I read the article about Florida & the solar energy. I'm sure a lot of folks would jump onboard if the panels were affordable without government funding. The technology is there, just not practical for most homeowners yet. Kind of like when cell phones & cellular networks first came out. It will get there someday. But right now, most folks in Florida can't afford them.
He will go down in history as Dirty Don, biggest carbon footprinter ever.
Quoting 188. ohzone:

He will go down in history as Dirty Don, biggest carbon footprinter ever.


i am thinking that in the grand scheme of history that is not what it will show n tell.

:)
Quoting 181. cRRKampen:


Whose economy? Not that of those now in govt power whose goal is to take out as many dollars as possible from an industry they too know is dying.



Haha, the DEPOP program will be implemented, it's time for them to cash out in that industry before it dies and gather all the $$$
Quoting 187. fmbill:



I read the article about Florida & the solar energy. I'm sure a lot of folks would jump onboard if the panels were affordable without government funding. The technology is there, just not practical for most homeowners yet. Kind of like when cell phones & cellular networks first came out. It will get there someday. But right now, most folks in Florida can't afford them.


No one really likes it when the government funds anything. Do we really consider the long term savings when we say this? When we consider the extreme costs that will be associated with salt water intrusion, cities and ports becoming more frequently flooded, coastal military bases that will be lost or damaged due to sea level rise and various other infrastructure that will be very expensive to repair/replace, then I would consider that the funding of renewable energy sources will be the far cheaper route for us to take. Some people still believe that we have spent far too much money on NASA and the space program. These people do not look at all of the new industries, jobs and technology that NASA and the space program has brought us. The people that consider NASA too expensive to maintain don't just lack foresight, they lack hindsight as well.
This pic is from JTWC as of 2:00 am (EST); pretty good indicator of how good this storm looked at landfall (and how big of a storm):





Quoting 180. RitaEvac:

But the economy will be disrupted once climate change takes hold...


It already has my friend, it already has...
Quoting 192. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



No one really likes it when the government funds anything.

Except when the subsidies are truly HUGE and meant for fossil fuel industries.
Then no one even notices.
Which happens to be the point here.
T-storms are starting to flare up in the Texas panhandle area at the moment; getting fired up for round two later today:

Quoting 195. cRRKampen:


Except when the subsidies are truly HUGE and meant for fossil fuel industries.
Then no one even notices.
Which happens to be the point here.


True. When you consider all of the costs that are associated with using fossil fuels as our energy source then you must also consider if they really are "affordable", even with the government subsidies. People that favor the use of fossil fuels do not seem to look at the "big" picture when they consider fossil fuels to be affordable.

Fossil fuels are a finite resource for us to be using to supplying our energy needs. Fossil fuels have brought us all that we have today, as far as progressing human prosperity is concerned. Should we have not replaced fossil fuels, long before they become depleted, with renewable energy sources going forward, then human progression will very much become human regression.
Quoting 197. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



True. When you consider all of the costs that are associated with using fossil fuels as our energy source then you must also consider if they really are "affordable", even with the government subsidies. People that favor the use of fossil fuels do not seem to look at the "big" picture when they consider fossil fuels to be affordable.

Fossil fuels are a finite resource for us to be using to supplying our energy needs. Fossil fuels have brought us all that we have today, as far progressing human prosperity is concerned. Should we have not replaced fossil fuels, long before they become depleted, with renewable energy sources going forward, then human progression will very much become human regression.

I like to be less diplomatic here and there (from a sense of urgency, say). But totally agreed.
From Grist:

Amazing! Once operational, the pipeline would employ 35 people.

AMAZING


REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Keystone XL is approved. Apply now for 35 permanent pipeline jobs. As expected, President Donald Trump signed a permit for the pipeline’s construction on Friday, though a few roadblocks remain in its path.

The State Department estimates the Keystone XL would provide 42,000 direct and indirect jobs — a number that might be inflated — and only 3,900 of those would be full-time construction positions. The thing is, they’re nearly all temporary, lasting long enough to get Keystone XL built. Once operational, the pipeline would employ just 35 people, according to the estimate.

Those numbers fall a bit short of what a certain reality TV star predicted in 2013:



Keystone XL would carry dirty tar sands oil from Canada to the United States, running over the Ogallala Aquifer and close to more than a dozen tribal lands. That puts a lot of drinking water at risk. As pipelines age, they typically aren’t properly maintained (after all, only 35 permanent employees are doing the work). Sooner or later, they’re sure to leak.

“It’s going to be an incredible pipeline,” Trump said on Friday morning. “Greatest technology known to man or woman. And frankly, we’re very proud of it.
From Grist:

AS THE WORLD BURNS


REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst | Shutterstock

Trump’s environmental executive order is everything we feared. A senior White House official confirmed that President Trump will start rolling back key Obama-era climate policies on Tuesday. The executive order is aimed at sweeping away the Clean Power Plan, methane regulations, mining restrictions on federal land, and, well, you name it.

The White House will direct government agencies to root out “all rules, all policies, and guidance documents that serve as obstacles or impediments to domestic energy production,” according to the official who spoke on background during a conference call with reporters Monday evening.

“Energy independence,” said the official. “That’s the goal.” (For the record, the United States is already pretty independent, importing about 11 percent of its energy.)

The official also told reporters that the administration was still debating whether to remain party to the Paris climate agreement.

As details started to leak out after the conference call, environmental organizations were up in arms. The World Resources Institute called the impending order a “sledgehammer to U.S. climate action.”

When a reporter asked about green groups threatening to sue, the administration seemed unfazed. “I’m sure they’ll disagree, but what’s your point?” the official said. “When it comes to dealing with climate change, we want to take our own course and do it in our own form and fashion.”

If there’s a silver lining here (and hey, it’s thin), it’s that the administration admits there’s such a thing as “dealing with climate change.”
Seems like Rick Perry was caught off-guard, again, at the time of this pic; wonder if he has figured out what EPA stands for yet..................................
Quoting 75. BaltimoreBrian:

Re DocNDswamp's comment #38:

Old English word of the day: hrycg - a back of a man or animal. Pronounced "hrudge".


The more of these you post the more Old English looks like modern Scandinavian languages - Modern Swedish translation is Rygg, pronounced roughly RYUGGH
Interesting article:
Pruitt takes fire from conservatives in climate showdown
Politico, by Andrew Restuccia and Alex Guillén, Updated 03/28/17 09:24 AM EDT
EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt is coming under fire from conservatives amid a simmering behind-the-scenes fight over how far to take President Donald Trump's push to undo his predecessor's climate change agenda. ...
4:10 PM CDT on March 27, 2017 Cat6
6
Quoting 38. DocNDswamp:

Nice weather update Bob Henson.
But...
Seriously, why should anyone feel free to discuss anything in the comments section knowing a week from now the entire comment history of this site will be trashed? Near 12 years of this grand community participation that was so encouraged within the blogs will disappear as if it never happened. Right now, the WU archives hold a wealth of knowledge, observations and experiences shared that anyone can reference, essentially weather-related diaries of our lives that won't be there after April 2.

You betcha, I'm feeling a stinging bitter end to what was an incredibly memorable 12 years of our lives - and time invested - in contributing to WU.
The videos and pictures from Debbie are astounding but quite sad as well. I hope that there won't be much if any loss of life. Looks like a lot of damage though!

Today's severe weather event looks quite potent in regards to hail. Dew points will be in the low-mid 60s - more favourable for tornado development than the last few days. So we might see more tornadoes spin up, but hopefully not!

Looks like severe weather in the US will be continuing well into next week:


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
.....
Quoting 207. PedleyCA:

.....


No, Pedley, no. I want to make the last comment on this blog. ;)