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March 2012: warmest in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:12 PM GMT on April 10, 2012

Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)


Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.

March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.



Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.



Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.

Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

38th and Tower is pretty much heading right at the airport. (DIA)

TORNADO WARNING
COC001-005-031-112330-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0001.120411T2306Z-120411T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
506 PM MDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
WESTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
EASTERN DENVER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 530 PM MDT

* AT 505 PM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR 38TH AND TOWER
ROAD...ABOUT 6 MILES NORTH OF AURORA...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DENVER. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BUCKLEY
AFB...BARR LAKE...WESTERN DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
NORTHEASTERN DENVER...NORTHEASTERN COMMERCE CITY AND NORTHWESTERN
AURORA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3996 10481 3996 10465 3967 10474 3968 10493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 199DEG 18KT 3982 10479
quick blog shut down...

anyway, the cmc ecmwf and gfs are on board with alberto
Yeah well, it's up to 4.1in per hour again, and 9.9 inches of total max accumulation now, and back to max hail size 3.25 inches in the worst core again.

Completely stalled out now.

2kts of movement.

Unbelievable.
Seems to be a lot of stress on the plates lately..
Quoting RTSplayer:
Yeah well, it's up to 4.1in per hour again, and 9.9 inches of total max accumulation now, and back to max hail size 3.25 inches in the worst core again.


your house??
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We've got a tornado outbreak upcoming tomorrow. It will probably be the biggest tornado day since March 2.


Well...looking over the rest of the model...We definitely need a Moderate risk tomorrow.
Earthquake shakes Mexico City, causing tall buildings to sway, people to evacuate

By Associated Press,

MEXICO CITY — Earthquake shakes Mexico City, causing tall buildings to sway, people to evacuate.
i think there been a 7.0 off MX cost not so sure on this
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Seems to be a lot of stress on the plates lately..

Take a look at USGS right now for a surprising update!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well...looking over the rest of the model...We definitely need a Moderate risk tomorrow.


make a map for it!!
Quoting weatherh98:


your house??


Heck no.

the monster thunderstorm northeast of Amarillo.

It's been going for several hours now.

Never seen anything quite like it really.

they posted flash flood warnings about an hour ago, but I expect new flash flood warnings may be needed in the next half hour.

this one is just ridiculous.

Arteaga, MX



edit: sorry picturedidnt come up.
Double whoa.

1014. ncstorm
Didnt Mexico City just had an earthquake a couple of weeks ago?
Lol.

Passing 10 inches of max storm accumulation...for NE of Amarillo, TX.

It was "just" a pop-up thunderstorm.

No training, n othing like that.

It just stalled out and that's what it's done.

I guess it might have moved 20 or 30 miles the whole time.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Heck no.

the monster thunderstorm northeast of Amarillo.

It's been going for several hours now.

Never seen anything quite like it really.

they posted flash flood warnings about an hour ago, but I expect new flash flood warnings may be needed in the next half hour.

this one is just ridiculous.


Thats insane, watch the nexxt drought monitor, there will be a streak of no drought because of this cell.
1017. hydrus
Looking at this, one might think the second system will produce the most severe weather..Link


Here are the recent West Coast ones.

Well that was a map of the 5.9 and the 7.0 one and a bunch of smaller but it didn't load. Site or me having issues, or both.
Interesting that the whole WU blog and site shut down from my point of view at the same time as the "Oregon quake," struck until the Mexico quake struck.
I have no idea of course if anybody else noticed this, or maybe it was just a link problem?
was wunderground down?

anyway i had this form the Amarillo storm:


but i couldnt get logged in.
Quoting PlazaRed:
Interesting that the whole WU blog and site shut down from my point of view at the same time as the "Oregon quake," struck until the Mexico quake struck.
I have no idea of course if anybody else noticed this, or maybe it was just a link problem?


Nah, I've been having trouble as well.
wow yesterday there was not one significant earthquake and today i think we are at 5 and probably counting!
1023. ncstorm
Quoting PlazaRed:
Interesting that the whole WU blog and site shut down from my point of view at the same time as the "Oregon quake," struck until the Mexico quake struck.
I have no idea of course if anybody else noticed this, or maybe it was just a link problem?


Yeah, I couldnt get on either
Now there is training starting to form.

There are many new cells moving in from the west and southwest of Amarillo, headed back into the same areas hit so hard by the hail storms in the past several hours.

they might get a lull for a bit once the big slow mover finally gets out of the way, but it looks like some solid storms are already moving in to replace them ASAP.
Who made Earth so mad?
Quoting PlazaRed:
Interesting that the whole WU blog and site shut down from my point of view at the same time as the "Oregon quake," struck until the Mexico quake struck.
I have no idea of course if anybody else noticed this, or maybe it was just a link problem?


I have had two issues so far this afternoon.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Who made Earth so mad?


north korea
I have never heard of 10in of rainfall accumulation from one pop-up thunderstorm.

Goodness.

I mean tropical storms, or a well developed, slow moving front, sure.


Just a single cell, stalled out thunderstorm dumping 10 inches on somebody?

That's new to me for sure.
Quoting RTSplayer:
I have never heard of 10in of rainfall accumulation from one pop-up thunderstorm.

Goodness.

I mean tropical storms, or a well developed, slow moving front, sure.


Just a single cell, stalled out thunderstorm dumping 10 inches on somebody?

That's new to me for sure.


looks like a new stom moving right that way, this is UGLY
Quoting weatherh98:


north korea

Probably...

The USGS has a total of 38 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or greater listed for today... That must be an all time record
Ive got to drop out of this scenario for tonight here as its 1.30 am.
Hope everybody is OK with these quakes and I also hope that the blog doesn't slip into hibernation.
A bit disconcerting all these quakes with 2 on the West of the ring of fire and now 2 on the East side as well?
Stay safe you people!
Quoting weatherh98:


make a map for it!!

.



storms are coming back to meet the current ones!!1
cold settling in.
brrrrrr.

and does anyone have confirmation on the denver tornado?
Quoting weatherh98:


looks like a new stom moving right that way, this is UGLY


Yeah, for the longest time, it was just 2 or 3 very slow moving, but isolated cells.

The other cells have only closed in during about the past 30 minutes.

I lost track of how long this has actually been going on now, but I think it must have been some time around 2:15p.m. central time when it started.

So that same cell has been warned for 100% hail 80% to 100% severe and 1 inches to 3.5 inches continuously for at least 4.5 hours consecutively.


they dont need more rain but its gonna keep coming


45 Quakes over 5.0 in last 7 days.
1040. hydrus
Quoting PlazaRed:
Ive got to drop out of this scenario for tonight here as its 1.30 am.
Hope everybody is OK with these quakes and I also hope that the blog doesn't slip into hibernation.
A bit disconcerting all these quakes with 2 on the West of the ring of fire and now 2 on the East side as well?
Stay safe you people!
G,nite Red..:)
They added some more flash flood warning boxes, which was a no brainer.

Still 3.9in per hour accumulations under the main cell.
Jim Cantore on TWC just said that cell, now near Fritch NE of Amarillo really has only moved 20miles in the past 4 hours.

So yeah. Sick stuff.

Never heard of it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Looks like it's going to be a bumpy ride tomorrow. :P


day 2
Quoting RTSplayer:
They added some more flash flood warning boxes, which was a no brainer.

Still 3.9in per hour accumulations under the main cell.

In addition to the fact that it is also still putting down 1.5 inch hail and still has rotation
Finally back home!

Here are my predictions on tomorrow's possible severe weather outbreak.

Categorical: Moderate Risk

Tornadoes
: 15%

Hail
: 45%

Wind
: 30-45%

Anyone agree?

Quoting RTSplayer:
They added some more flash flood warning boxes, which was a no brainer.

Still 3.9in per hour accumulations under the main cell.


Im surprised it has not collapsed, usually the updrafts should stop and be cut off by now, especially with it being slow moving.
Predictions for tomorrow:

Tornado: 10%

Wind: 30%

Hail: 45%

I heard this in the weather channel

There has been a 5.6 Earthquake off the coast of Oregon and a 7.0 earthquake in Mexico....

Is this the day of earthquakes or something???
Quoting Doppler22:
I heard this in the weather channel

There has been a 5.6 Earthquake off the coast of Oregon and a 7.0 earthquake in Mexico....

Is this the day of earthquakes or something???

Yes, didn't you check the calendar this morning?
Quoting Ameister12:
Finally back home!

Here are my predictions on tomorrow's possible severe weather outbreak.

Categorical: Moderate Risk

Tornadoes
: 15%

Hail
: 45%

Wind
: 30-45%

Anyone agree?



does that mean you think there will be a 15% chance of a tornado anywhere.
Link

For mexico quake and

Link

For Oregon quake
Quoting weatherh98:


does that mean you think there will be a 15% chance of a tornado anywhere.

No, just in the predicted area. The general area where the slight risk is:

Did you hear that?

Jim Cantore said earlier that it was 2 to 4 FEET of Hail near Amarillo.

I didn't say anything because I thought he had mis-spoken.


But Kim Cunningham just said the same thing.


Are they reading off a card?

Is that a mistake?


that is absolutely unimaginable.

I'm sure that's an isolated case, but good God.

That's like a blizzard in Buffalo, NY or something.

TWO TO FOUR FEET OF HAIL?!

Did they mis-read the ticker twice?

Of course, the Radar estimated the hail at well over 2 inches for several consecutive hours, so at least several inches of hail seemed inevitable...but FEET?

That's got to be some sort of world record...


Can a local met or storm chaser or just a blogger from the area please clarify this?


that is an absolutely unimaginable total...
Why with all the strong quakes?.Maybe the earth will end this year in December.
Quoting Ameister12:

No, just in the predicted area. This general area:



ohhh okay?
Quoting weatherh98:


ohhh okay?

An SPC issued 15% risk actually indicates a very high chance of tornadoes... It's kind of confusing
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

An SPC issued 15% risk actually indicates a very high chance of tornadoes... It's kind of confusing


Yea how haha?



about 10-12 years ago, a pop up summer thunderstorm dumped 14 inches in a period of about 6 hours or so where i live. this was a very localized amount, which often happens with florida summer time storms. the streets were under a foot of water and all the drainage ditches were filled up and moving like swollen rivers. but 12 hours later, it was all gone for the most part. florida is an interesting place to live in regards to weather.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

An SPC issued 15% risk actually indicates a very high chance of tornadoes... It's kind of confusing


Because tornadoes are that rare. They seem common given the average annual count of 1000, but the actual odds of being hit by a tornado is extremely small. Even more statistically unlikely is a particular neighborhood being hit by a tornado.
Quoting floridafisherman:



about 10-12 years ago, a pop up summer thunderstorm dumped 14 inches in a period of about 6 hours or so where i live. this was a very localized amount, which often happens with florida summer time storms. the streets were under a foot of water and all the drainage ditches were filled up and moving like swollen rivers. but 12 hours later, it was all gone for the most part. florida is an interesting place to live in regards to weather.
I wouldn't mind spending my last few years down their in that state since I'm a weather nut.
A 15% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any particular location is significant. Imagine how the people felt on April 27 when they were in a 45% chance of seeing a significant tornado within 25 miles of their location.
never mind i deleted it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A 15% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any particular location is significant. Imagine how the people felt on April 27 when they were in a 45% chance of seeing a significant tornado within 25 miles of their location.


so its like a tor con of a 3??
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 PM MDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LOVING COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL LEA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
SOUTHEASTERN EDDY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM MDT/815 PM CDT/

* AT 608 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF RED BLUFF LAKE...OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF MENTONE...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
RED BLUFF LAKE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS DETECTED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.


http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/

SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 611 PM MDT WED APR 11 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING AMARILLO TX - KAMA 705 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING AMARILLO TX - KAMA 703 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 703 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING PUEBLO CO - KPUB 559 PM MDT WED APR 11 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 558 PM MDT WED APR 11 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
558 PM MDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

* UNTIL 700 PM MDT

* AT 554 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11
MILES NORTH OF GLADIOLA...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF TATUM...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY...
STATE HIGHWAY 125 SOUTHEAST OF CROSSROADS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF
YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM... TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.
TxDOTAmarillo
Heavy rain and up to 4 ft of hail has US 287 blocked north of Amarillo. Traffic moving slowly through the area. Expect some delays.


found via twitter, it wasnt a joke

4 FEET OF HAIL
Quoting weatherh98:


so its like a tor con of a 3??

For a 15% tornado? No...Dr. Greg Forbes usually goes 6/7 for a 15% tornado. But his numbers are within a 50 mile radius of any particular area.

I know it's confusing, just look at it like this:

2% tornado - maybe a tornado or two
5% tornado - a few tornadoes
10% tornado - 8 tornadoes (outbreak) or more
15% tornado - Could see many tornadoes (The January 22-23, 2012 tornado outbreak had 45 tornadoes and they had a 15% tornado)
30% tornado - Run away..
45% tornado - Run away...
60% tornado - Run away.....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

For a 15% tornado? No...Dr. Greg Forbes usually goes 6/7 for a 15% tornado.


So that's for just seeing a significant one? So there may be tornado in 50 miles and there's a 30% chance it's big!?
Quoting weatherh98:


So that's for just seeing a significant one? So there may be tornado in 50 miles and there's a 30% chance it's big!?

No, Dr. Forbes doesn't incorporate significant tornadoes into his TOR:CON.

Revised my post, go look back.
Looks like the 5.9 earthquake off Oregon was close enough to the border with CA to make any confusion logical.

Quoting Doppler22:
Link

For mexico quake and

Link

For Oregon quake

Geez, what is it, earthquake day?
Man! Most big earthquakes I have seen in one day!
GAStormz, I think ur utube video has screwed the blog.....

EDIT: Good video, though.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Why with all the strong quakes?.Maybe the earth will end this year in December.


How are you feeling tonight....
Quoting BahaHurican:
GAStormz, I think ur utube video has screwed the blog.....

Are you using...

a.) Classic Weather Underground
b.) Internet Explorer

If b, you better go get Google Chrome!
Quoting weatherh98:
TxDOTAmarillo
Heavy rain and up to 4 ft of hail has US 287 blocked north of Amarillo. Traffic moving slowly through the area. Expect some delays.


found via twitter, it wasnt a joke

4 FEET OF HAIL



There is no telling what kind of damage this has done.

I'm not sure what the local economy is there like farming or wildlife, etc.

I think one should be prepared for mass livestock casualties and mass wildlife casualties.

this will have bludgeoned, froze, or drowned cattle, dogs, cats, birds, etc, anything that was outside and couldn't make it to shelter in the isolated areas where it was so bad.


It will also have collapsed some flat roofs on things like convenience stores and groceries, possibly some service station awnings, sheds, and other weak structures, maybe even some houses and mobile homes too, etc.
i deleted the video, tell me if that helps, other wise i will try to turn the page.

sorry
Not intending to start a fight on this, but given that there is talk on the blog about quakes...............and then I pop over to see what is new on NPR and this shows up.

Link

The U.S. Geological Survey will soon confirm that the oil and gas industry is creating earthquakes, and new data from the Midwest finds that these man-made quakes are happening more often than originally thought.
.
.
.
.
.
Frohlich notes somewhat reassuringly that so far, man-made quakes have not been any bigger than natural earthquakes in a region.
1079. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We've got a tornado outbreak upcoming tomorrow. It will probably be the biggest tornado day since March 2.



That's Saturday's chart. 7PM CDT
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
i deleted the video, tell me if that helps, other wise i will try to turn the page.

sorry
Thanks... I notice there is sometimes weirdness with utube videos... dunno if it has anything to do with the width of the embed or what.
Any reports of how large a area got the hail?
Quoting PedleyCA:


How are you feeling tonight....
I'm feeling better than I was this morning that's for sure.The doctor said the pain in my chest may come from my allergies.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, Dr. Forbes doesn't incorporate significant tornadoes into his TOR:CON.

Revised my post, go look back.


Or look at it like this, had to do math, keep in mind that the area of a circle is
A=pi*r2

There fore

With the way the nws does it, a=3.14(25)(25)=1962.5 square miles
With the way Forbes does it, a=3.14(50)(50)=7850

Therefore 1962.5(4)=7850

So if you take an nws value of 15% and multiply by 4 make that 60 and make it a tor con value of 6

Hope that made sense,

1084. Patrap
3 Friday the 13ths this year 13 weeks apart.

Jan. 13, April 13 and July 13 are exactly 13 weeks apart.
Quoting beell:


That's Saturday's chart. 7PM CDT

Oops, my bad. Here's tomorrow evening's:

Quoting Patrap:
3 Friday the 13ths this year 13 weeks apart.

Jan. 13, April 13 and July 13 %u2014 are exactly 13 weeks apart.


happens my birthday falls on the April one this year!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm feeling better than I was this morning that's for sure.The doctor said the pain in my chest may come from my allergies.


You had chest pains? At least you went to the doctor for that. That's not something to screw around with.
1088. Patrap
Quoting weatherh98:


happens my birthday falls on the April one this year!!


Happy Early B-day then.

Avoid the Doom...
The NAM is giving southwest/central Kansas an EHI value of 7, CAPE values near 2000 j/kg, and Storm Relative Helicity values over 500 m2/s2.
Quoting Patrap:
3 Friday the 13ths this year 13 weeks apart.

Jan. 13, April 13 and July 13 are exactly 13 weeks apart.


And December 21rst is on a Friday.
Quoting KoritheMan:


You had chest pains? At least you went to the doctor for that. That's not something to screw around with.
Yes.I had to go to the Doctors to check what it really was.I was concerned that I had developed something more series.
1092. Patrap
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And December 21rst is on a Friday.


Same day as the Winter Solstice.

Huh, somebody best be writing or carving this down in stone..it may be important.
Quoting Patrap:
3 Friday the 13ths this year 13 weeks apart.

Jan. 13, April 13 and July 13 are exactly 13 weeks apart.


My b-day fell on the January one. I am still alive. :)

How often does this happen? The frequency of Friday the 13ths that is.
Quoting Patrap:


Happy Early B-day then.

Avoid the Doom...


ill atempt
1095. Patrap
Three Friday the 13ths, 13 weeks apart, a rarity

For many pagans, 13 is a lucky number, because it corresponds with the number of full moons each year, says Ivo Dominguez Jr., owner of Bell, Book & Candle, a pagan and occult book and gift shop in Dover, Del.
While Friday the 13th can feel special, it isn't. In a 400-year period, the 13th falls on a Friday more than any other day: 688 times, Fernsler says.


Quoting weatherh98:


Or look at it like this, had to do math, keep in mind that the area of a circle is
A=pi*r2

There fore

With the way the nws does it, a=3.14(25)(25)=1962.5 square miles
With the way Forbes does it, a=3.14(50)(50)=7850

Therefore 1962.5(4)=7850

So if you take an nws value of 15% and multiply by 4 make that 60 and make it a tor con value of 6

Hope that made sense,



that doesnt work, because if the area is 10 times larger, you do not have 150%.

It is a lot easier to work with probabilities of not happening in situations like this, so you could say that the probability that the tornado does not occur in any of the four sections that u could divide forbes' are into is .85^4= .522, or a .47 that it will.
so this would be a TorCon of 5.
Forbes however, seems to have higher numbers, so a 6 or more is what he uses.


The official conversions would be as follows:

2% SPC prob = TORCON of 1 (or about 8% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
5% SPC prob = TORCON of 2 (or about 19% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
15% SPC prob = TORCON of 5 (or about 48% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
30% SPC prob = TORCON of 8 (or about 76% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
45% SPC prob = TORCON of 9 (or about 91% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
60% SPC prob = TORCON of 10 (or about 97% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
633 PM MDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

* UNTIL 700 PM MDT

* AT 626 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES NORTH OF
GLADIOLA...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF TATUM...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
GLADIOLA...
1098. ncstorm
From Frank Strait..that hail is unreal

Quoting Patrap:
Three Friday the 13ths, 13 weeks apart, a rarity




Thanks, and from the link

It's hard not to feel something about Friday the 13th, Fernsler says. "I find that 95% of people in the world are superstitious about something, and the other 5% are liars," he said.
Quoting 1911maker:
Any reports of how large a area got the hail?


I haven't heard anything officially.

the storm only moved 20miles during the 4.5 hours event.

But the core may have been several miles wide of non-stop hail on several occasions.


It was a very, very wide core and we couldn't figure out why it wasn't tornado warned.


I figure as much as 20 miles length and maybe a mile or two wide path, could have had severe hail, but that's just guesstimating from having watched the radar the whole time.

the isolated cases of 4 feet is, I hope, nowhere near that big of an area.


But the storm was 100% chance of hail for 4.5 consecutive hours.

It was 80% or more chance of Severe hail the entire time as well.

Max radar estimated hail stone size ranged from 1 inch to 3.5 inches for the duration of the event.


So certainly any building's roofs which were in the areas with 2feet of more of accumulation are going to have some sort of damage ranging from superficial to catastrophic i'd imagine.


I can't imagine what would have happened if this had hit directly in Amarillo...omg...

Hopefully there aren't a lot of animal deaths.

Like I said, I don't know much about that area as far as that goes.


Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that doesnt work, because if the area is 10 times larger, you do not have 150%.

It is a lot easier to work with probabilities of not happening in situations like this, so you could say that the probability that the tornado does not occur in any of the four sections that u could divide forbes' are into is .85^4= .522, or a .47 that it will.
so this would be a TorCon of 5.
Forbes however, seems to have higher numbers, so a 6 or more is what he uses.


The official conversions would be as follows:

2% SPC prob = TORCON of 1 (or about 8% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
5% SPC prob = TORCON of 2 (or about 19% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
15% SPC prob = TORCON of 5 (or about 48% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
30% SPC prob = TORCON of 8 (or about 76% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
45% SPC prob = TORCON of 9 (or about 91% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
60% SPC prob = TORCON of 10 (or about 97% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)


for converting to torcon values it works
Looks like nature is putting Texas through "hail" right now.LOLOL.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that doesnt work, because if the area is 10 times larger, you do not have 150%.

It is a lot easier to work with probabilities of not happening in situations like this, so you could say that the probability that the tornado does not occur in any of the four sections that u could divide forbes' are into is .85^4= .522, or a .47 that it will.
so this would be a TorCon of 5.
Forbes however, seems to have higher numbers, so a 6 or more is what he uses.


The official conversions would be as follows:

2% SPC prob = TORCON of 1 (or about 8% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
5% SPC prob = TORCON of 2 (or about 19% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
15% SPC prob = TORCON of 5 (or about 48% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
30% SPC prob = TORCON of 8 (or about 76% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
45% SPC prob = TORCON of 9 (or about 91% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
60% SPC prob = TORCON of 10 (or about 97% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)



thats mathematically incorrect...

.15 in 25 mile radius would mean a .6 in a 50 mile radius they must do it so that the numbers dont go over 100%
1104. Patrap
It's hard not to feel something about Friday the 13th, Fernsler says. "I find that 95% of people in the world are superstitious about something, and the other 5% are liars," he said.

"That's a good copy and number Houston'
Quoting RTSplayer:


I haven't heard anything officially.

the storm only mn't imagine what would have happened if this had hit directly in Amarillo...omg...

Hopefully there aren't a lot of animal deaths.

Like I said, I don't know much about that area as far as that goes.


Thanks,

I have been in (exposed) to marble to a bit bigger for a couple of minutes and it was not a large amount of stones. It still hurt. I can not imagine being in that unprotected.
1106. Patrap
N. Korea has started the terminal Count down for the Launch Vehicle.

TORNADO WARNING
TXC065-233-120115-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0002.120412T0039Z-120412T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
739 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
NORTH CENTRAL CARSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 738 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE
MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BORGER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE STINNETT...
SANFORD AND BORGER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 10148 3576 10124 3557 10141 3565 10160
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 209DEG 5KT 3569 10145

$$

KJS
Quoting weatherh98:




for converting to torcon values it works


no because 45% * 4 = 180, and teh 2011 superoutbreak certainly didnt get a TorCon of 18.
A 30% risk isnt a 12.

Your logic is flawed

Trust me, i am a math competition expert.
Here's video of a flash flood consisting of hail slush taken near Amarillo this evening. Imagine a billion-gallon, mud-flavored Slurpee:

1110. beell
18Z NAM Valid 7PM tomorrow evening. A lead piece of energy over KS atop the dryline.

Quoting Patrap:
N. Korea has started the terminal Count down for the Launch Vehicle.


they aint launching a satellite. its a test to see how far they can launch a nuke.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no because 45% * 4 = 180, and teh 2011 superoutbreak certainly didnt get a TorCon of 18.
A 30% risk isnt a 12.

Your logic is flawed

Trust me, i am a math competition expert.


They curve the numbers.

So they dont go over 100%
1113. Patrap
North Korea: Rocket being fueled 'as we speak'

NBC's Richard Engel reports from Pyongyang, North Korea, ahead of the launch.
By Reuters
PYONGYANG, North Korea -- North Korea said Wednesday that it was injecting fuel into its controversial experimental rocket "as we speak" -- meaning it could blast off as early as Thursday.
If all goes to plan, the launch, which North Korea's neighbors and the West say is a disguised ballistic missile test, will take a three-stage rocket over a sea separating the Korean peninsula from China before releasing a satellite into orbit when the third stage fires over waters near the Philippines.
Regional powers also worry it could be the prelude to another nuclear test, a pattern the hermit state set in 2009.
"We don't really care about the opinions from the outside. This is critical in order to develop our national economy," said Paek Chang-ho, head of the satellite control center at the Korean Committee of Space Technology.
I can imagine two to four feet of hail (washed in with the accompanying rain) accumulating in in ditches/depressions. I have seen marble-sized hail, deposited "one marble deep" overall, about a foot deep in drainages.
(edit)
We shoveled it into a garbage can to ice down a keg.
1115. hartfa
Quoting RTSplayer:
TWO TO FOUR FEET OF HAIL?!

Did they mis-read the ticker twice?

Of course, the Radar estimated the hail at well over 2 inches for several consecutive hours, so at least several inches of hail seemed inevitable...but FEET?

That's got to be some sort of world record...


Can a local met or storm chaser or just a blogger from the area please clarify this?


They did not read the ticker wrong. US 287 is closed, and per the local news, the highway department is reporting that there were indeed 2 to 4 feet of hail piled up in areas, and that 100 feet of the highway had been washed out due to the flooding.

One of the local stations has a blog with several pictures of the deep hail, including one that looks just like a blizzard. The hail was producing white-out conditions. There are also several pictures of small funnels from that cell and others.

Link

Interestingly, Amarillo has had similar events in the past. On July 8, 2010 a storm dumped 10 inches of rain in a couple of hours just northeast of the city. And in May of 1978, a pair of supercells dumped what was estimated to be over 20 inches of rain over a narrow swath near Canyon, Texas.
10:55:17pmGMT 11April2012:
Magnitude7.0earthquake at 18.390n102.652w at a depth of 65.6kilometres(40.7miles)
~39miles(63kilometres)NW of LazaroCardenas(LZC)
and ~245miles(395kilometres)WSW of MexicoCity(MEX)


1014 ncstorm: Didn't Mexico City just have an earthquake a couple of weeks ago?

The 20March earthquake was a magnitude7.4 at 16.662n98.188w
about midway between Acapulco(ACA) and Oaxaca(OAX)
and ~199miles(321kilometres)SSE of MexicoCity
Quoting weatherh98:


They curve the numbers.

So they dont go over 100%


yes but twice an area doesnt have twice the probability, so you will always aprroach 100%, as your area gets larger and larger.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


yes but twice an area doesnt have twice the probability, so you will always aprroach 100%, as your area gets larger and larger.


yes like the speed of light, you cant touch it haha
1120. pottery
Quoting Neapolitan:
Here's video of a flash flood consisting of hail slush taken near Amarillo this evening. Imagine a billion-gallon, mud-flavored Slurpee:


Looks like something from a Dread movie.
Would not want to be swept away in that at all at all!
Quoting weatherh98:


yes like the speed of light, you cant touch it haha


the probability will look something like this, but this is from a birthday problem:


night all
March was a very wet month in Puerto Rico as many records were broken.And it's supposed to be the second driest month of the year.



Link
Now my friend made this image for tomorrow:

tornado on an amarillo storm
What the HAIL? My god has everyone seen the FEET of hail in Texas? OMG it's INSANE!!!
1126. pottery
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
March was a very wet month in Puerto Rico as many records were broken.And it's supposed to be the second driest month of the year.



Link

Had the first bush-fire threaten us yesterday here.
Good thing I was home to keep it from crossing the fire-trace.
Spent 3 hours out there, in a heat index of 96F, getting close to the flames from time to time.

A rather HOT way to spend an afternoon...
Quoting pottery:

Had the first bush-fire threaten us yesterday here.
Good thing I was home to keep it from crossing the fire-trace.
Spent 3 hours out there, in a heat index of 96F, getting close to the flames from time to time.

A rather HOT way to spend an afternoon...


Hi pottery. Is Trinidad & Tobago going thru a drought? I have seen reports from some of the islands such as Guadeloupe,Antigua,Nevis among others that things are very dry.
Major cities under a risk for severe weather on Saturday.
1129. txjac
Quoting Ameister12:
Major cities under a risk for severe weather on Saturday.


This will be over with by Sunday?? I fly out to Tulsa again on Sunday and dont want to have to deal with this
Quoting Ameister12:
Major cities under a risk for severe weather on Saturday.

I think tornadoes Saturday will be a little more than isolated like that graphic says; probably a pretty big event
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think tornadoes Saturday will be a little more than isolated like that graphic says; probably a pretty big event

That graphic just means tornadoes are possible anywhere in that area.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Now my friend made this image for tomorrow:



Get him on the blog:P
Quoting txjac:


This will be over with by Sunday?? I fly out to Tulsa again on Sunday and dont want to have to deal with this

Nope, it'll last at least until the middle of next week.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That graphic just means tornadoes are possible anywhere in that area.

But it specifically states isolated tornadoes
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

But it specifically states isolated tornadoes

Yes...there there is a possibility of isolated tornadoes anywhere in that red area.
1136. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

Had the first bush-fire threaten us yesterday here.
Good thing I was home to keep it from crossing the fire-trace.
Spent 3 hours out there, in a heat index of 96F, getting close to the flames from time to time.

A rather HOT way to spend an afternoon...
Glad you and your flat did not have fire damage..I mention in passing that Red with ice cubes is a surefire way to cool off..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes...there there is a possibility of isolated tornadoes anywhere in that red area.

Are you expecting a bigger event tomorrow or Saturday?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Are you expecting a bigger event tomorrow or Saturday?

It depends on the strength and position of the Low Level Jet when Saturday rolls around. It looks like the two could be pretty evenly matched, or tomorrow may win by just a little bit.
Quoting PlazaRed:
Quoting:-
Skye, have they decided to admit those fire are toxic yet or are they pretending they have gone out, IE, Extinguished?


The landfill fires are numerous today.. Janesville one maybe out. That one was assumed poisonous.

The Staten Island landfill fire yesterday that they were saying wasn't poisonous..well new concerns arose with a yellow cloud. Results of air samples down wind are now being asked to be released. There is 1000s of acres burning still in that area.

New landfill fire in Surprise, AZ today.. One in OH they are still battling from yesterday.
1099. 1911maker 12:40 AM GMT on April 12, 2012 +1
Quoting Patrap:
Three Friday the 13ths, 13 weeks apart, a rarity




Thanks, and from the link

It's hard not to feel something about Friday the 13th, Fernsler says. "I find that 95% of people in the world are superstitious about something, and the other 5% are liars," he said.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: February 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 208


its the 2012 luck of the draw
Quoting oldnewmex:
I can imagine two to four feet of hail (washed in with the accompanying rain) accumulating in in ditches/depressions. I have seen marble-sized hail, deposited "one marble deep" overall, about a foot deep in drainages.
(edit)
We shoveled it into a garbage can to ice down a keg.



I don't think they were measuring the accumulation in a ditch or low place.

It's apparent that plows were needed to clear the hail off of the road on US287.

Plows.

Now figure, before the storm starts, you have hot, 110f to 120f asphault (or concrete) in the baking Sunlight, so the first several inches of hail on the road itself probably melted on contact and ran off...

...yet they still needed plows to clear the road from the ice that accumulated in the road...


And yes, I realize in a big pile of hail stones there is also a lot of empty space, air and liquid water that the stones will normally try to float on...

but they ended up using plows to clear the road from ice.

That's extremely much more than anything I've ever seen.
1143. Patrap
CME

LASCO Image


www.solarham.com





1144. LargoFl
Quoting WxGeekVA:
What the HAIL? My god has everyone seen the FEET of hail in Texas? OMG it's INSANE!!!
in my whole life I have never seen anything like that
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
1099. 1911maker 12:40 AM GMT on April 12, 2012 +1
Quoting Patrap:
Three Friday the 13ths, 13 weeks apart, a rarity




Thanks, and from the link

It's hard not to feel something about Friday the 13th, Fernsler says. "I find that 95% of people in the world are superstitious about something, and the other 5% are liars," he said.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: February 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 208


its the 2012 luck of the draw


I, for one, am not superstitious one bit. I'm much too analytical and logical to be superstitious. Personally, I find it absolutely absurd that old apartments around here don't have a 13th floor. It's a number WE created!

I find that 95% of people in the world are superstitious about something, and the other 5% are liars

Then where do I figure? I'm starting to wonder if I even exist... ;) Maybe I'm in a parallel universe.
1147. Patrap
Apollo 13 Launched this date in 1970 at 13:13 CST from the Kennedy Space Center, Florida.

Look at the end of the 18Z GFS run in the Caribbean... That means with 99.5 percent certainty that the solution will not verify.

04/13/12 000 z run 48 hr


Quoting WxGeekVA:
Look at the end of the 18Z GFS run in the Caribbean... That means with 99.5 percent certainty that the solution will not verify.

More like 99.9%.
Quoting KoritheMan:

More like 99.9%.
stranger things have happen

maybe we go from super spring to super strange
Quoting KoritheMan:

More like 99.9%.


hah maybe I'm being conservative...

Meanwhile, more hail...


Quoting WxGeekVA:


hah maybe I'm being conservative...

Shh. Let's not completely curb the wishcasters' hopes.
Quoting KoritheMan:

More like 99.9%.


It's been 9 years since a TS formed in April. It would be another great sight to see.
1157. Patrap
Tomorrow, April 12th is the 31st year since the first Space Shuttle Launch, STS-1 Columbia with Young and Crippen aboard.





Quoting caneswatch:


It's been 9 years since a TS formed in April. It would be another sight to see.
It'd be even more impressive if it ended up making landfall. That I would like to see.
Quoting KoritheMan:

It'd be even more impressive if it ended up making landfall. That I would like to see.


I've heard a TS or greater has made landfall here in Florida in all months except either December or January. Not saying such will happen, but it would be pretty cool to witness.
Quoting caneswatch:


I've heard a TS or greater has made landfall here in Florida in all months except either December or January. Not saying such will happen, but it would be pretty cool to witness.
You heard wrong. March and April haven't seen any landfalls.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that doesnt work, because if the area is 10 times larger, you do not have 150%.

It is a lot easier to work with probabilities of not happening in situations like this, so you could say that the probability that the tornado does not occur in any of the four sections that u could divide forbes' are into is .85^4= .522, or a .47 that it will.
so this would be a TorCon of 5.
Forbes however, seems to have higher numbers, so a 6 or more is what he uses.


The official conversions would be as follows:

2% SPC prob = TORCON of 1 (or about 8% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
5% SPC prob = TORCON of 2 (or about 19% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
15% SPC prob = TORCON of 5 (or about 48% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
30% SPC prob = TORCON of 8 (or about 76% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
45% SPC prob = TORCON of 9 (or about 91% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
60% SPC prob = TORCON of 10 (or about 97% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
I'm glad you are into explaining this. Would be interesting to be able to compare SPC and Forbes' torcon index on an even plane. Sorry, though, I'm not getting it. And I'm not bad with math. Part I don't understand is... SPC's probabilities are based on 'within 25 miles of a point.' Does your conversion to torcon allow for this? Maybe I missed something and need to read back some.
Quoting Skyepony:


The landfill fires are numerous today.. Janesville one maybe out. That one was assumed poisonous.


Pretty sure it's out sadly enough. Folks in Rock county love good landfill fire. For awhile they were trying to report it as a grass fire despite the smell of burning plastic and a giant black billowing cloud over the area.
Radar indicated Tornado at Hartley, north-WEST of Amarillo.

Looks like another hail storm south east of Amarillo.


More storms also training back over the areas north and east that were hit by the hail storms earlier.
Today:

Tornado in California
4 foot haildrifts in OK
8.6 & 8.2 quakes Indonesia
5.8 Oregon Coast
6.5 Mexico


RAISE THE DOOMCON LEVEL!!!!!
There's even a very large hail storm in Mexico, labeld "D0" on Del Rio radar.

it said 3.75 and 3.50inch max hail.

100% severe.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
I'm glad you are into explaining this. Would be interesting to be able to compare SPC and Forbes' torcon index on an even plane. Sorry, though, I'm not getting it. And I'm not bad with math. Part I don't understand is... SPC's probabilities are based on 'within 25 miles of a point.' Does your conversion to torcon allow for this? Maybe I missed something and need to read back some.
NVM. lol Just figured the areas and see 50-mile-radius circle is, is, is 4x area of 25 mile radius, so a 2% prob by SPC would be 8% by torcon. 8% of, of, of... The 100% torcon prob is 10, I take it... 0.8 Torcon, call it 1. OK. I get it. Thanks!

Um, PS. What happens when SPC prob is 45%, or 60%? Torcon doesn't go that high.
Hmmmm.
:)
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Today:

Tornado in California
4 foot haildrifts in OK
8.6 & 8.2 quakes Indonesia
5.8 Oregon Coast
6.5 Mexico


RAISE THE DOOMCON LEVEL!!!!!


This means one thing





ALIENS
Quoting ncstorm:
From Frank Strait..that hail is unreal

"Our crew out there says the hail is up to four and five feet high in some areas."
This is unreal ... lol
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
"Our crew out there says the hail is up to four and five feet high in some areas."
This is unreal ... lol


LOL.

Guy asked "Don't they mean inches".

Definitely not.

The radar has estimated "rainfall" at well over 10 inches in that area now, and it obviously was severely under-estimating it.

I guess we may never know the actual amount amount of hail accumulation, as it would be difficult to tell the difference between "legit" totals in a flat location vs drifts and pile-ups by the time you start getting that much...
So they only managed to clear the northbound side.

The southbound side is still blocked and closed.

Radar estimated "rainfall" total now stands at 11.6 inches in the main area hit by the hail storm N. of Amarillo.
Well, Good Night All. Been a very strange day, Tornado's in California and a Hail Torrent in Texas, That roadway was too funny, what a mess. Well, Stay Safe All.
India~ At least seven persons were killed and over 40 injured in storms and lightning which hit different parts of the state, officials said on Wednesday. In the last three days, lightning strike killed two persons at Mohanpur and another in Bishalgarh in West Tripura district while a girl and a boy were killed at Amarpur in Gomati district. Another person lost his life at Belonia in South Tripura district, they said. During the heavy storm, a live electric wire came in contact of a six-year-old boy at Dharmanagar in North Tripura district leading to his death, police said. At least 1000 houses including the makeshift camps of paramilitary forces were devastated, many electric posts were uprooted and cattle killed in different parts of the state in last three days, police said. Close to 40 people, including five jawans of security forces were injured when their houses collapsed during the storm, they said. Police said security forces and Quick Reaction Teams (QRT) of Disaster Management groups were busy in rescuing the victims of the storm. Sources in the MeT Office said the cyclonic storm is likely to continue for the next forty eight hours in the state.

Thailand's tsunami~ .2ft
Province of Aceh, Indonesia tsunami~ 3.5ft
Sri Lanka tsunami~ .1ft
Cocos (Keeling) Islands tsunami~ .3ft

Giant wave took down a boat off New Zealand. One survivor.

Flooding in Philippines killing crops & forcing families from their home.

Total Petrochemicals reported a check valve failure that led to a spill at its 232,000-barrels-per-day Port Arthur refinery in Texas, according to a filing with state pollution regulators. The filing with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality identified three tanks as the sources of the spill. However, the filing did not specify the product released.
1173. Patrap
Also come tomorrow,Vostok 1 (Russian: Восток-1, East 1 or Orient 1) was the first spaceflight in the Vostok program and the first human spaceflight in history.

Piloted by Yuri Gagarin

The Vostok 3KA spacecraft was launched on April 12, 1961.

Man standing next to Texas hail bluffs. I can't get the photo to post. Small version here. http://myhighplains.com/fulltext?nxd_id=260502

Scroll down to first post for large
1176. txjac
Quoting Patrap:
M4.5 - Yarmouth, Canada
2012-04-12 02:29:41 UTC


Unreal ...yet another
1178. Patrap
2, 4.6 Quakes, Same Basin,,9 secs apart. Crazy.
Quoting Patrap:
CME

LASCO Image


www.solarham.com





Meh. That was not a large flair.
odd quake there.... offshore east Mass

also the 6.5 in Guerrero, MX
and the near 6.0 offshore Oregon coast

wth??? is going on today?
Im gonna fear the 11th day from now on every year. Or's its just coincidental
(March 11, 2011 Japan 9.0)
(9/11)
(today the 11 for the Indonesia 8.6 quake)
1181. hartfa
While this hail event is definitely rare, it isn't unprecedented in this area. In 1992(?), we had a similar event near Dalhart, Texas in which the hail piled up, up to 6 feet in areas. The pictures looked like the men were standing in a glacier field, with massive white fields as high as their heads, containing huge fissures. However, it was isolated mainly to one ranch and a local highway. It took days to melt, giving people plenty of time to drive up and see the spectacle.

I'd take piles of hail over the grapefruit size stuff we got in April 2004. Talk about apocalyptic!
Quoting KoritheMan:
You heard wrong. March and April haven't seen any landfalls.


Really? It was many years ago I heard this, memory is definitely a little off. I remember hearing all but one month for some reason, and it's kinda coming back to me that January was not the month.
1183. Patrap
Quoting entrelac:
Meh. That was not a large flair.


..er, It's "Flare", and that was a CME or a "Coronal Mass Ejection"

Partially Earth Directed,..and most def not a "Flare".
1184. snotly
"The Texas Department of Transportation is reporting that northbound highway 287 between Amarillo and Dumas is now open".

Someone told me once not to drive in hail near Dumas, now I guess I know why they phrased it that way.


Quoting RTSplayer:


LOL.

Guy asked "Don't they mean inches".

Definitely not.

The radar has estimated "rainfall" at well over 10 inches in that area now, and it obviously was severely under-estimating it.

I guess we may never know the actual amount amount of hail accumulation, as it would be difficult to tell the difference between "legit" totals in a flat location vs drifts and pile-ups by the time you start getting that much...
Quoting Patrap:
M4.8 - Panguitch, Utah
2012-04-12 03:29:22 UTC
And here I thought I'd beat you on that one but noooo I got bogged down on the time zone conversions. Gahhhhhh!!!!
1187. Patrap
..is all good. Sure is some Bad EQ Mojo afoot though.
1188. hartfa
Quoting jamesrainier:
Man standing next to Texas hail bluffs...

Scroll down to first post for large


I don't know about anyone else, but I'd call that about 4 FEET of hail!
1189. Patrap
Major Hail Storm in TX Panhandle - RAW FOOTAGE

Quoting Patrap:


..er, It's "Flare", and that was a CME or a "Coronal Mass Ejection"

Partially Earth Directed,..and most def not a "Flare".
I'm sorry. I'm not seeing chatter regarding this flare/CME (pardon the earlier typo) on the usual channels. It's rated a B2 max at this time.

If you have data that is different please share it.
NOUS46 KSTO 120329
PNSSTO

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
800 PM PST WED APR 11 2012


LOCAL STORM SURVEY REVEALS AN EF1 TORNADO 4 MILES WEST OF
FRENCH CAMP, CALIFORNIA AROUND 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON IN
SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY.


WIND SPEED: ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 MILES PER HOUR.


LOCATION: NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HOWARD ROAD
AND SOUTH ROBERTS ROAD, APPROXIMATELY
4 MILES WEST OF FRENCH CAMP.

TIME: AROUND 1PM.


STORM TRACK: EYEWITNESSES STATED THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN
IN A GROVE OF VERY SMALL WALNUT TREES ABOUT
1 TO 1.5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOWARD ROAD AND
ROBERTS ROAD DOING LITTLE DAMAGE. THE TORNADO
TRACKED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 1 MILE AND
TOTALLY DESTROYED A 40 FT BY 25 FT GARAGE, TIPPED
OVER AN EMPTY TRACTOR TRAILER, AND REMOVED SEVERAL
SHINGLES FROM THE ROOF OF THE NEARBY HOME. NO
DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED NORTH OF HOWARD ROAD.

INJURIES: NONE


EF SCALE

EF RATING 3 SECOND GUSTS (MPH)

0 65-85
1 86-110
2 111-135
3 136-165
4 166-200
5 OVER 200




not bad for CA
Yeah.

A youtube users commenting on one of the videos said her husband was there in Dumas trying to drive home.

She said it was FEET of hail.


So I guess that's the radar, TWC, some storm chasers, the highway depart, and another independent eye-witness, plus this photo of the wall of ice...

just nuts...
1193. snotly
Is that the Wasatch fault? Read a book called 'Rough hewn land' that it's going to go big time some day and devastate Salt Lake City.

Quoting Patrap:
M4.8 - Panguitch, Utah
2012-04-12 03:29:22 UTC
1195. Patrap
Quoting snotly:
Is that the Wasatch fault? Read a book called 'Rough hewn land' that it's going to go big time some day and devastate Salt Lake City.



Dunno, and I wonder about the depth showing 0.0 or surface as well.
Quoting caneswatch:


It's been 9 years since a TS formed in April. It would be another great sight to see.


I've been seeing rumors of an early subtropical storm for the last several days on this blog...but this one is gaining quiet a bit of attention. What date do the models say it will begin? Which storm system presently over the US is supposd to become the subtropical storm?
I assume Dr. Masters will do at least mention the hail in his blog tomorrow or the next day when more facts are known?

Seems the biggest known weather event, plus the tornadoes.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I've been seeing rumors of an early subtropical storm for the last several days on this blog...but this one is gaining quiet a bit of attention. What date do the models say it will begin? Which storm system presently over the US is supposd to become the subtropical storm?
there is lots we have not seen yet
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I've been seeing rumors of an early subtropical storm for the last several days on this blog...but this one is gaining quiet a bit of attention. What date do the models say it will begin? Which storm system presently over the US is supposd to become the subtropical storm?


It will start to take shape late on the 15th, and my guess is the front over the western Atlantic. The upper flow over this portion of the world seems largely zonal at the moment, especially below 30N. A more amplified regime is forecast to develop. This flow pattern might act to allow the southern end of this front to slowly push eastward, rather than exit completely into the north Atlantic shipping lanes.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I've been seeing rumors of an early subtropical storm for the last several days on this blog...but this one is gaining quiet a bit of attention. What date do the models say it will begin? Which storm system presently over the US is supposd to become the subtropical storm?


Kori beat me to it :P
1203. skook
Link


Updated: 4/09 6:01 pm | Published: 4/09 12:40 pm
Reported by: Brian Carlson

Video
Images

Related Links

Utah Seismic Safety Commission

SALT LAKE CITY (ABC 4 News) - Some of Utah's most prominent politicians are urging people along the Wasatch Front to get ready for a major earthquake. Seismic experts have been warning people for years that Utah is overdue. Monday they’re trying to warn those who need to know it most.




Officals raising awareness just about a week ago for the Wasatch Fault line.


Quoting KoritheMan:


It will start to take shape late on the 15th, and my guess is the front over the western Atlantic.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-ir4. html

By clicking on HDW-H checkbox, the upper atmosphere across the Atlantic (upper ridges and upper troughs) are currently low in amplitude, usually a much more amplified upper air pattern exists during a subtropical event.

The W Atlc front is being supported by a low-amplitude upper trough with axis around 80 deg west longitude. This same upper trough seems to also be producing non-frontal surface troughs in the vicinity of the north-central Caribbean (TAFB surf map). Seeing a lot of t-storm flare ups north of the non-frontal surface troughs and ahead of the W Atlc front, I guess supported by surface convergence from these features coupled with the upper divergence of the 80 deg west longitude upper trough.

If I don't see the 80 deg west longitude upper trough get amplified moreso in the next several hours...I don't think a subtropical cyclone will develop by April 15/16 from any of those surface features....so I am not yet excited....
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-ir4. html

By clicking on HDW-H checkbox, the upper atmosphere across the Atlantic (upper ridges and upper troughs) are currently low in amplitude, usually a much more amplified upper air pattern exists during a subtropical event.

The W Atlc front is being supported by a low-amplitude upper trough with axis around 80 deg west longitude. This same upper trough seems to also be producing non-frontal surface troughs in the vicinity of the north-central Caribbean (TAFB surf map). Seeing a lot of t-storm flare ups north of the non-frontal surface troughs and ahead of the W Atlc front, I guess supported by surface convergence from these features coupled with the upper divergence of the 80 deg west longitude upper trough.

If I don't see the 80 deg west longitude upper trough get amplified moreso in the next several hours...I don't think a subtropical cyclone will develop by April 15/16 from any of those surface features....so I am not yet excited....


I didn't say it would develop on those dates. Just that it would begin on those dates. The models seem to want to place a more amplified synoptic flow regime over the central Atlantic over the next few days.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I didn't say it would develop on those dates. Just that it would begin on those dates. The models seem to want to place a more amplified synoptic flow regime over the central Atlantic over the next few days.


Oh okay...so the more amplified synoptic flow begins on the 15th/16th? According to the models, is the upper trough going to cut-off into an upper low south of Bermuda's latitude or north of it? I am thinking SSTs are too cool in general...but especially too cool for subtropical development north of Bermuda's latitude.

Well, I'm off to bed.

Been a very long day.

Mercifully, it looks like most of the hail and tornadoes were in remote, isolated areas and haven't hit any population centers.

Look forwards to better, more complete information tomorrow.

good night everyone.
Ice in glass rattled a bit, and the dog barked at the same time. Hmmmmm .... checking earthquake data, nothing so far.

I felt nothing, but after Virginia, I pay attention to my dogs.

SE US Coast here.

Maybe the dog just heard the ice turning over.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Oh okay...so the more amplified synoptic flow begins on the 15th/16th? According to the models, is the upper trough going to cut-off into an upper low south of Bermuda's latitude or north of it? I am thinking SSTs are too cool in general...but especially too cool for subtropical development north of Bermuda's latitude.



As per the GFS, the upper flow looks to become more amplified near the 72 hour time frame, and the actual low begins to manifest a day later, to the northeast of the Leeward Islands.


144 hr is its strongest at 180 it spins down
Quoting KoritheMan:


As per the GFS, the upper flow looks to become more amplified near the 72 hour time frame, and the actual low begins to manifest a day later, to the northeast of the Leeward Islands.
close to the triple nickel 55.5 degrees west longitude
this is 96 hrs out break away starts

we will see may just be a ghost
1218. LargoFl
I was scanning the quake prediction homepage and found this..i think this is california..................2.5 earthquake possible in Petrolia, Ferndale.
WARNING; A 6.0+ earthquake is "possible" in the Indio, Borrego Springs, Ocotillo area April 11 to April 14. Please make sure you have extra food, gas, water and emergency plans ready.
1219. LargoFl
Kilauea Alert Level=WATCH. Aviation Color Code=ORANGE. As of Apr 11, 2012, 07:42 HST
Back-to-back DI events synced w/ smt lava lake rise/fall; active flows SE of Pu`u `O`o crater on pali and coastal plain; no ocean entry; gas emissions elevated.
(Change to current status occurred on Mar 9, 2011 19:45 HST from Alert Level WARNING and Aviation Color Code RED )
For more information see http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/activity/archiveupdate.p hp?noticeid=7184
1220. LargoFl
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1045 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012

MDZ501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ050-055-501>506-121000-
/O.CON.KLWX.FZ.W.0009.120412T0600Z-120412T1300Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.FZ.A.0006.120413T0600Z-120413T1300Z/
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-
EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...HIGHTOWN...
MONTEREY...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...
ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
1045 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE UNPROTECTED VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
San Francisco Bay Area milk sample has highest amount of Cesium-137 since last June — Almost double EPA’s maximum contaminant level

Title: UCB Milk Sampling Results
Source: UCBDepartment of Nuclear Engineering
Date: April 9, 2012

4/9/2012 (5:45pm): Three recent milk test results have been posted on the milk sample page with “best by” dates of 3/12, 4/9, and 4/16. Very low levels of Cs-134 and Cs-137 were detected in the samples — the amounts are so small that it would require drinking over tens of thousands of liters of milk to receive the small dose that one receives from a cross-country airplane flight. These isotopes can still be detected in milk because they have long half-lives (2 years and 30 years, respectively) and therefore trace amounts will remain in the grass and hay that the cows feed on.

Best Buy Date of 04/09/2012:

Cs-134 @ 0.068 Bq/L
Cs-137 @ 0.141 Bq/L
Total Cs = 0.209 Bq/L or 5.67 pCi/L (27.1 picocuries = 1 becquerel)

Best Buy Date of 04/16/2012:

Cs-134 @ 0.073 Bq/L
Cs-137 @ 0.079 Bq/L
Total Cs = 0.152 Bq/L or 4.12 pCi/L

The EPA Maximum Contaminant Level for radioactive cesium in milk is 3 picocuries/L:

“EPA lumps these gamma and beta emitters together under one collective MCL [Maximum Contaminant Level], so if you’re seeing cesium-137 in your milk or water, the MCL is 3.0 picocuries per liter; if you’re seeing iodine-131, the MCL is 3.0; if you’re seeing cesium-137 and iodine-131, the MCL is still 3.0.” -Forbes.com

These are the highest cesium-137 levels detected by UCB since last June (Far right column is Cs-137)

DEPT NUCLEAR ENGINEERING BERKELEY CA.


http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/UCBAirSampling/MilkSa mpling
The SPC has already issued a moderate risk for Saturday!

SPC AC 120734

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT THU APR 12 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND ERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND VERY
LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS INTO SERN NEB/NWRN MO/SWRN IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
D3/SAT...WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
THE ERN STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY
MIDLEVEL WIND EXTENDING FROM AZ/NM THROUGH OK/KS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING D2/FRI WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE WRN LONGWAVE TROUGH DURING ON SAT...REACHING CO/NM BY 12Z
SUNDAY. AN ATTENDANT 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET WILL EMERGE INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS TO KS SAT NIGHT...WITH 60-80 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NEB. A LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
THROUGH SRN NEB TO SRN IA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT. A DRY LINE WILL MOVE EWD SOME BY SAT
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR ERN NEB SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL
KS TO FAR WRN OK TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

...SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER FALLS FORECAST FOR SAT
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE SRN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
MOISTURE ADVECTION E OF THE DRY LINE ON SAT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND REACHING CENTRAL/ERN
KS BY SAT EVENING. THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRY
LINE/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
2000-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THE SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50 KT/ AND ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING
FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.


...ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO/NWRN IL/SWRN-SRN WI...
STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH D3
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AS A WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NNEWD SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SUGGEST SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER..A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE SWD
MOVING FRONT AND INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION/TSTMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-50 KT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
WARM FRONT AND ALSO WWD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE WARM
FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.

..PETERS.. 04/12/2012
1227. LargoFl
All the way down into Georgia now.................................URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
315 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

GAZ006-008-009-121400-
/O.CON.KFFC.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120412T1400Z/
FANNIN-UNION-TOWNS-
315 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY THREATEN OR KILL TENDER
SPRING GROWTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN THE
WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

&&

$$
ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS all continue to support a sub-tropical storm developing by next Wednesday.

We may have something here, watch for consistency.
It's gonna be a little rough in the plains today... Maybe even more on Saturday...

Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS all continue to support a sub-tropical storm developing by next Wednesday.

We may have something here, watch for consistency.

The Euro turns this into a pretty sizeable storm, at least for April... It has it peaking at 1000 mb
Wow Saturday already has a moderate risk. I think there is a decent chance of a high risk event that day. Should be fun to watch but everyone stay safe!

THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRY
LINE/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
2000-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THE SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50 KT/ AND ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING
FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.
7:06:01amGMT 12Apr2012 magnitude6.2quake at 28.841n113.072w & 10.1kilometres(6.3miles)depth
7:15:49amGMT 12Apr2012 magnitude6.9quake at 28.790n113.142w & 10.3kilometres(6.4miles)depth
The 6.9quake struck ~6miles(9kilometres)SouthWest of the 6.2quake.

The 6.2quake struck in the Sea of Cortez ~69miles(111kilometres)East of BahiaKino,Mexico
The 6.9quake struck in the Sea of Cortez ~73miles(118kilometres)East of BahiaKino.
The intervening island is IslaTiburon, an uninhabited nature reserve
A Prediction.

If we have a picture like the lead one in this blog entry that is titled, "August 2012 Statewide Ranks", we'll begin to get some traction concerning global warming in the general US media.

Of course, that will be after one of the worst months of general weather misery in US history.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's gonna be a little rough in the plains today... Maybe even more on Saturday...


I don't know what they're seeing preventing today from being a Moderate risk. They need to upgrade!

The latest NAM model gave in even more favorable for tornadoes for this afternoon...I seriously don't know why the SPC would keep this a Slight without even a mention of upgrading. But then again, I like the later crew more than the morning crew, they never really do outstanding.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The latest NAM model gave in even more favorable for tornadoes for this afternoon...I seriously don't know why the SPC would keep this a Slight without even a mention of upgrading. But then again, I like the later crew more than the morning crew, they never really do outstanding.


We will likely see an upgrade to Moderate Risk for today at the next Day 1 Outlook, in an hour and a half or so
Meanwhile...

Wow Pat!

That granular flow was all hail stones? It looked like a mud flow. The stable sides and sloshing was amazing.
Quoting percylives:
A Prediction.

If we have a picture like the lead one in this blog entry that is titled, "August 2012 Statewide Ranks", we'll begin to get some traction concerning global warming in the general US media.

Of course, that will be after one of the worst months of general weather misery in US history.
I doubt it. The real media would pick up on it, perhaps, but pretend media (Fox, etc.) would ignore it, and even the real media that would show it would be misled into maintaining a false balance: "97% of climatologists agree that August's massive and unprecedented heat wave was made far worse by the rapid climate change that's taking place. However, the CEO of ExxonMobil says it wasn't. With such confusion, it's obvious the jury is still out. How can we ever really know the truth amid such uncertainty?"

:-\
1240. Xandra
Amarillo Hail Storm.


Saturday's wording would make me very worried if I lived in the Moderate risk area. Oklahoma City, Norman, and Wichita are all in the bullseye of what is likely to be a very major outbreak of Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes, with multiple long-tracked and violent tornadoes possible.





DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT THU APR 12 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND ERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND VERY
LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS INTO SERN NEB/NWRN MO/SWRN IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
D3/SAT...WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
THE ERN STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY
MIDLEVEL WIND EXTENDING FROM AZ/NM THROUGH OK/KS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING D2/FRI WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE WRN LONGWAVE TROUGH DURING ON SAT...REACHING CO/NM BY 12Z
SUNDAY. AN ATTENDANT 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET WILL EMERGE INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS TO KS SAT NIGHT...WITH 60-80 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NEB. A LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
THROUGH SRN NEB TO SRN IA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT. A DRY LINE WILL MOVE EWD SOME BY SAT
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR ERN NEB SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL
KS TO FAR WRN OK TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

...SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER FALLS FORECAST FOR SAT
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE SRN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
MOISTURE ADVECTION E OF THE DRY LINE ON SAT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND REACHING CENTRAL/ERN
KS BY SAT EVENING. THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRY
LINE/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
2000-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THE SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50 KT/ AND ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING
FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.

...ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO/NWRN IL/SWRN-SRN WI...
STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH D3
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AS A WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NNEWD SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SUGGEST SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER..A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE SWD
MOVING FRONT AND INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION/TSTMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-50 KT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
WARM FRONT AND ALSO WWD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE WARM
FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.

..PETERS.. 04/12/2012
1242. spathy
Holy earthquake swarm batman!
WTH is going on. Mexico,Baja,Oregon,Utah,and N Atlantic?

2012?
Quoting Xandra:
Amarillo Hail Storm.


Whoa.
the nam is 20+ kts of shear stronger than the gfs,
moderate will be issued at 9/8 central i think
M5.3 - Iwaki, Japan
2012-04-12 11:19:59 UTC


Already had seven Magnitude 5.0 earthquakes today, including a 6.9 in Mexico.
Quoting spathy:
Holy earthquake swarm batman!
WTH is going on. Mexico,Baja,Oregon,Utah,and N Atlantic?

2012?
Entire ring of fire area was active the last 24 hours.
There have been thirty (30) earthquakes of 5.0 magnitude or greater around the world in the last 24 hours. 8:00am yesterday to 8:00am this morning. Have a great day!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Meanwhile...



Alberto in the making?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Alberto in the making?

I personally don't see it happenning, but it will be interesting to watch
Quoting BahaHurican:
Entire ring of fire area was active the last 24 hours.


Good morning. Also,on the Mona Channel,a 3.6.

Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
Entire ring of fire area was active the last 24 hours.


Good morning. Also,on the Mona Channel,a 3.6.

Link
Hmmm...

Models seem to disagree on the intensity of the "outbreak".

Euro has low as a relatively large area "below 990mb" now for the lowest frame in the run, which I think it did the whole time.


The Canadian and GFS seem to have it as a 994mb or lower only in a very tight core.
1241. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:59 AM GMT on April 12, 2012

Thanks for posting that Day 3 Convective Outlook. Out here in the middle, looks like we're gonna need to hold onto our roof trusses and our dog Toto, too.

Just a tip for you and others who post Convective Outlook graphics from SPC. If you click the "convective outlooks" link on the left of SPC main page (or top of main page map), go to the bottom of page and change the date to the current day's date, and then view the graphics and copy their location, graphics will have an archived web address and will not change when a new day 3 or day 1 or whatever is issued. This does not work for day 4-8 but does for the others.
SPC is sticking with slight risk for today





TCHP has really increased in the NW Caribbean this week.


Our drought here in Illinois continues to intensify as every system that crosses the Mississippi goes poof or passes us to the south and east.

I'm curious to see how this next system taking shape over TX and OK will do. I've seen some pretty incredible dust devils last 3 or 4 days on my way home from work, one of which was about 50 yards wide and a couple hundred feet in height. I need to take a picture today, but the topsoil is actually drifting off the fields and into the ditches, almost like snow around here.



This shows just how ridiculously dry its been here the last few days.




Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
M5.3 - Iwaki, Japan
2012-04-12 11:19:59 UTC


Already had seven Magnitude 5.0 earthquakes today, including a 6.9 in Mexico.


Supposedly, the next full moon is to occur very close to perigee. (May 5....Heard that on the radio, so, with a grain of salt, eh...?) The thinking is that the moon generates tides in the magma as well as the seas and air above it, shifting the weight of all three as the earth revolves, and setting off points of tension that are near the breaking point.

Moon Perigees:http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc. html
Quoting Xandra:
Amarillo Hail Storm.


how big of an event will it take
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
SPC is sticking with slight risk for today

got some buddies heading down to chase today-sunday; last night they were citing lower moisture levels than originally modeled, moving their target further south. the environment will certainly have strong instability though, i expect they'll have good chances!
a lot of buzz about saturday already having moderate risk!!
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Our drought here in Illinois continues to intensify as every system that crosses the Mississippi goes poof or passes us to the south and east.

I'm curious to see how this next system taking shape over TX and OK will do. I've seen some pretty incredible dust devils last 3 or 4 days on my way home from work, one of which was about 50 yards wide and a couple hundred feet in height. I need to take a picture today, but the topsoil is actually drifting off the fields and into the ditches, almost like snow around here.



This shows just how ridiculously dry its been here the last few days.






Just wait till you get in the D3 Extreme category
New Blog
1264. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
1099. 1911maker 12:40 AM GMT on April 12, 2012 +1
Quoting Patrap:
Three Friday the 13ths, 13 weeks apart, a rarity




Thanks, and from the link

It's hard not to feel something about Friday the 13th, Fernsler says. "I find that 95% of people in the world are superstitious about something, and the other 5% are liars," he said.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: February 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 208


its the 2012 luck of the draw
Charley hit us on Friday the 13th.. And I dont mind saying that I am superstitious about certain things.